The Bell Curve - Intelligence and Class Structure in American Life

In our time, the ability to use and manipulate ployment, work-related injury, out o f wedlock
information has become the single most births, crime, and many other social problems.
important element o f success, no matter how Though we stubbornly deny it, these social
you measure it: financial security, power, or problems correlate to a significant degree with
status. Those who work by manipulating intelligence.
ideas and abstractions are the leaders and ben Only by facing up to this undeniable news
eficiaries o f our society. In such an era, high can we begin to accurately assess the nations
intelligence is an increasingly precious raw problems and make realistic plans for address
material for success. But despite decades o f ing them. T h at means in the first instance
fashionable denial, the overriding and insis accepting that there are great differences in
tent truth about intellectual ability is that it is intelligence between groups o f people, as well
endowed unequally, for reasons that govern as among individuals in any group. Just as
ment policies can do little to change. important, it also means learning that these
T he major purpose o f The Bell Curve is to group differences do not justify prejudicial
reveal the dramatic transformation that is assumptions about any member o f a given
currently in process in American society a group whose intelligence and potential may, in
process that has created a new kind o f class fact, be anywhere under the bell curve o f intel
structure led by a cognitive elite, itself a ligence from the dullest to the most brilliant.
result o f concentration and self-selection in But it does mean we must have the courage to
those social pools well endowed with cognitive revise what we can talk about in public. This
abilities. This transformation, sadly, has its book is the first important step toward that
opposite: the perpetuation o f a class o f people difficult but necessary goal.
deficient in these endowments and abilities,
and increasingly doomed to labor, i f they find
work at all, outside the information economy.
In a book that is certain to ignite an explosive received his
controversy, Herrnstein and Murray break new Ph.D. in psychology at Harvard where he has
ground in exploring the ways that low intelli taught since 1958 and now holds the Edgar
gence, independent o f social, economic, or ethnic Pierce Chair in Psychology.
background lies at the root o f many o f our social
problems. The authors also demonstrate the a graduate o f Harvard
truth o f another taboo fact: that intelligence lev who received his Ph.D. in Political Science
els differ among ethnic groups. This finding is from M IT, is the author o f Losing Ground:
already well-known and widely discussed among American Social Policy 19501980. H e is cur
psychometricians and other scholars. In The Bell rently a Bradley Fellow at the American
Curve, Herrnstein and Murray open this body o f Enterprise Institute.
scholarship to the general public.
Our public policy refuses to acknowledge the
proofs o f human difference, or to deal with its
consequences. With relentless and unassailable
thoroughness, Herrnstein and Murray for the T H E FR E E P R E SS
first time show that for a wide range o f
Printed in the U.S.A.
intractable social problems, the decisive correla 1994 Simon & Schuster Inc.
tion is between a high incidence o f the problem Distributed by Simon & Schuster Inc.
and the low intelligence o f those who suffer jacket design R E M Studio, Inc.
from it: this holds for school dropouts, unem
THE BELL CURVE
Intelligence and Class Structure
in American Life
RICHARD J. HERRNSTEIN
CHARLES MURRAY
TH E FREE P R E SS
N e w Y ork London T o r o n to Sydney Tokyo S in g a p o r e
Copyright 1994 by Richard J. Herrnstein and Charles Murray
All rights reserved. N o part of this book may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any
means, electronic or m echanical, including photocopying, recording, or by any information stor
age and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the Publisher.
The Free Press

A Division of Sim on & Schuster Inc.
8 6 6 Third Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10022
Printed in the United States of America
printing number
8 9 10
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Hermstein, Richard J.
The bell curve : intelligence and class structure in A m erican life
/ Richard J. Herrnstein, Charles Murray,
p. cm.
ISBN 0-0 2 -9 14673-9
1. Intellect. 1. N ature and nurture, 3. Intelligence levels
Social aspects. 4- Educational psychology. I. Murray, C harles A.
II. Title.
BF431.H398 1994
305.9'082 dc20 9 4-29694
CIP
J u l ia ,
M a x ,
Ja m e s ,
N a r is a r a ,
Saraw an ,
A nna,
a n d B e n n e tt
We wrote with your w orld in our thoughts

T h e re is a m o st ab surd an d a u d a c io u s M e th o d o f r e a so n in g a v o w e d by
so m e B ig o ts a n d E n th u siasts, a n d th ro u g h F e a r a sse n te d to by s o m e w iser
an d b e tte r M e n ; it is this. T h e y arg u e a g a in st a fair D is c u s sio n o f p o p
ular P reju d ic es, b ecau se, say they, t h o they w ou ld be fou n d w ith o u t an y
re a so n a b le S u p p o rt, yet th e D isc o v e ry m ig h t be p r o d u c tiv e o f th e m o st
d an g e ro u s C o n se q u e n c e s. A b su rd a n d b la sp h e m o u s N o t io n ! A s if all
H a p p in e ss w as n o t c o n n e c te d w ith th e P ra c tic e o f V irtu e , w h ic h n e c
essarily d e p e n d s u p o n th e K n o w le d g e o f T ru th .
E dm und Bu rke
A V indication o f N a tu r a l Society
Contents
List oj Illustrations xi
List oj Tables xvii
A Note to the Reader xix
Preface xxi
Acknowledgments xxv
In tro d u c tio n 1
P A R T I.
T H E E M E R G E N C E O F A C O G N IT IV E E L IT E
1 C o g n itiv e C la s s an d E d u c a tio n , 1 9 0 0 1 9 9 0
2 C o g n itiv e P a rtitio n in g by O c c u p a tio n
3 T h e E c o n o m ic P ressure to P a rtitio n
4 S te e p e r L ad d e rs, N a rro w er G a te s
P A R T II.
C O G N IT IV E C L A S S E S A N D S O C IA L B E H A V IO R
5 P o v e rty
6 S c h o o lin g
7 U n e m p lo y m e n t, Id len ess, an d In jury

v iii Contents
8 Fam ily M atters 167
9 W elfare D ep en d en cy 191
10 Parentin g 203
11 C rim e 235
12 C iv ility and C itizen sh ip 253
P A R T III.
T H E N A T IO N A L C O N T E X T
13 E thn ic D ifferences in C o g n itiv e A b ility 269
14 E th n ic In eq u alities in R e la tio n to I Q 317
15 T h e D em ograph y o f In te llig e n c e 341
16 S o c ia l B eh av io r a n d th e P re v a le n c e o f L o w C o g n itiv e A b ility 3 6 9
P A R T IV.
L IV IN G T O G E T H E R
17 R aisin g C o g n itiv e A b ility 389
18 T h e L evelin g o f A m e ric a n E d u c a tio n 417
19 A ffirm ative A c t io n in H ig h e r E d u c a tio n 447
2 0 A ffirm ative A c tio n in th e W o rk p lac e 479
21 T h e W ay W e A r e H e a d e d 509
22 A P lace for E v ery o n e 527
A P P E N D IX E S
1 S ta tistic s for P eo p le W h o A r e S u re
T h e y C a n t L e a rn S ta tistic s 553
2 T e ch n ic al Issues R e g a rd in g the
N a tio n a l L o n g itu d in a l S u rv e y o f Y ou th 569
3 T ech n ic al Issues R e g a rd in g th e A rm e d
Forces Q u a lific a tio n T e st a s a M e asu re o f IQ 579
4 R eg ressio n A n a ly se s from P art II 593

Contents ix
5 S u p p le m e n ta l M a te ria l for C h a p te r 13 625
6 R e g re ssio n A n a ly se s fro m C h a p te r 1 4 645
7 T h e E v o lu tio n o f A ffirm a tiv e A c t io n

in th e W o rk p la c e 655
Notes 665
Bibliography 775
Index 833
List of Illustrations
In th e tw e n tie th century, th e p re v a le n c e o f th e c o lle g e d e g re e g o e s fro m

o n e in fifty to a third o f th e p o p u la tio n 32
A t m id -cen tury, A m e ric a ab ru p tly b e c o m e s m ore e ffic ie n t in g e t tin g th e
top stu d e n ts to c o lle g e 34
B etw een th e 1 9 2 0 s an d th e 1 9 6 0 s, c o lle g e a tt e n d a n c e b e c o m e s m o r e
clo sely p e g g e d to IQ 35
C o g n itiv e so rtin g c o n tin u e s from th e tim e th a t stu d e n ts e n te r c o lle g e
to the tim e th ey get a d egree 37
C o g n itiv e str a tific a tio n in c o lle g e s by 1961 40
A m e ric a n s w ith an d w ith o u t a c o lle g e e d u c a tio n as o f 1 9 3 0 45
A m e ric a n s w ith an d w ith o u t a c o lle g e e d u c a tio n as o f 1 9 9 0 46
T h e to p IQ d e c ile b ec o m es rap idly m ore c o n c e n tr a te d in h ig h - I Q p r o
fession s from 1 9 4 0 on w ard 56
In fifty years, th e e d u c a tio n o f th e ty p ic a l C E O in c r e a se s fro m h ig h
sc h o o l to g ra d u a te sc h o o l 59
T h e v a ria tio n a m o n g in d iv id u a ls th a t lies b e h in d a s ig n ific a n t c o r r e la
tio n c o e ffic ie n t 68
T h e a d v a n ta g e s o f h irin g by test sc o re 84
E n g in e e rs sa la rie s as a n e x a m p le o f h ow in te llig e n c e b e c a m e m o re v a lu
ab le in th e 1 9 5 0 s 93
T h e h ig h - IQ o c c u p a tio n s a lso are w e ll-p aid o c c u p a tio n s 100
D efin in g th e c o g n itiv e c la sse s 121
D ra m a tic p ro g re ss a g a in st p o v erty from W o rld W ar II th ro u g h th e 19 6 0 s ,
sta g n a tio n sin c e th en 128
T h e c o m p a ra tiv e roles o f IQ an d p a r e n ta l S E S in d e te r m in in g w h e th e r
youn g w h ite ad u lts are b elo w th e p o v e rty lin e 134
In the w h ite h ig h sc h o o l sam p le , h igh I Q m ak e s a d iffe re n c e in a v o i d
ing p o v erty ; in th e c o lle g e sa m p le , h ard ly an y o n e w as p o o r 136
T h e role o f th e m o th e rs IQ in d e te r m in in g w h ich w h ite c h ild r e n a re
poor 138
x ii List of Illustrations
T h e ro le o f th e m o th e rs so c io e c o n o m ic b a ck g ro u n d in d e te rm in in g
w h ich w h ite c h ild re n are p o o r 140
In th e first h a lf o f th e century, th e h ig h sc h o o l d ip lo m a b e c o m e s th e
n o rm 144
In p re d ic tin g w h ich w h ite y o u th s w ill n e v e r c o m p le te a h ig h sc h o o l ed-
u c a tio h , IQ is m ore im p o rta n t th a n S E S 149
F or tem p o rary d ro p o u ts, th e im p o rta n c e o f S E S in crease s sh arp ly 150
F or w h ite y ou th s, b e in g sm art is m ore im p o rta n t th a n b e in g p riv ile g e d
in g e ttin g a c o lle g e d eg ree 152
S in c e m id -cen tury, te e n a g e boys n o t in sc h o o l are in cre asin g ly n o t e m
p lo y e d e ith e r 156
IQ an d so c io e c o n o m ic b a ck g ro u n d h a v e o p p o site effec ts o n le a v in g th e
lab o r force a m o n g w h ite m en 159
H ig h IQ low ers th e p ro b a b ility o f a m o n th -lo n g sp e ll o f u n e m p lo y m e n t
am o n g w h ite m en , w h ile s o c io e c o n o m ic b a ck g ro u n d h a s n o e ffe c t 164
In th e early 1970s, th e m arriag e rate b e g a n a p ro lo n g e d d e c lin e for n o
im m e d iately a p p a re n t re a so n 169
H ig h IQ raises th e p ro b a b ility o f m arriag e for th e w h ite h ig h sc h o o l s a m
p le, w hile h ig h so c io e c o n o m ic b a ck g ro u n d low ers it 172
T h e d iv o rc e re v o lu tio n 173
I Q a n d so c io e c o n o m ic b a ck g ro u n d h a v e o p p o site effects o n th e lik e li
h o o d o f a n early d iv o rc e a m o n g y o u n g w h ites 175
T h e ille g itim a cy re v o lu tio n 178
I Q h a s a large effect o n w h ite ille g itim a te b irth s in d e p e n d e n t o f th e
m o th e rs so c io e c o n o m ic b a ck g ro u n d 182
I Q is a m o re p ow erfu l p re d ic to r o f ille g itim a cy a m o n g p o o r w h ite w o m en
th a n a m o n g w h ite w o m en as a w h o le 188
T h e w elfare re v o lu tio n 192
E v e n afte r p o v erty an d m a rita l statu s are ta k e n in to a c c o u n t, IQ p lay ed
a su b sta n tia l role in d e te rm in in g w h eth er w h ite w o m e n go o n w e l
fare 195
S o c io e c o n o m ic b a ck g ro u n d an d IQ are b o th im p o rta n t in d e te rm in in g
w h eth er w h ite w o m en b e c o m e c h ro n ic w elfare re c ip ie n ts 197
A w h ite m o th e rs IQ h a s a sig n ific a n t role in d e te rm in in g w h eth er
h e r b ab y is u n d erw eig h t w h ile h e r so c io e c o n o m ic b a c k g ro u n d d o e s
not 215
A w h ite m o th e rs IQ an d so c io e c o n o m ic b a ck g ro u n d e a c h h a s a large
in d e p e n d e n t effect o n h e r c h ild s c h a n c e s o f sp e n d in g th e first th ree
years o f life in p o v erty 2 19
List of Illustrations x iii
A w h ite m o th e rs IQ is m o re im p o rta n t th a n h e r so c io e c o n o m ic b a c k
g ro u n d in p re d ic tin g th e w orst h o m e e n v iro n m e n ts 222
B o th a w h ite m o th e rs IQ a n d so c io e c o n o m ic b a ck g ro u n d h a v e m o d e r
ate re la tio n sh ip s w ith d e v e lo p m e n ta l p ro b lem s in th e c h ild 228
A w h ite m o th e rs IQ d o m in a te s th e im p o rta n c e o f so c io e c o n o m ic b ack-
grou n d in d e te rm in in g th e c h ild s IQ 231
T h e b o o m in v io le n t c rim e afte r th e 1 9 5 0 s 236
O n tw o d iv erse m easu res o f crim e, th e im p o rta n c e o f IQ d o m in a te s s o
c io e c o n o m ic b a ck g ro u n d for w h ite m e n 2 49
C o g n itiv e ab ility an d th e M id d le C la s s V alu es in d e x 265
O v e rv ie w o f stu d ies o f re p o rtin g b lack -w h ite d iffere n ce s in c o g n itiv e
te st sco res, 1 9 1 8 - 1 9 9 0 277
T h e b la c k an d w h ite IQ d istrib u tio n s in th e N L S Y , V e rsio n I 279
T h e b la c k a n d w h ite IQ d istrib u tio n s in th e N L S Y , V e rsio n II 279
B la c k IQ sco res g o up w ith so c io e c o n o m ic statu s, b u t th e b lac k -w h ite
d ifferen ce d o es n o t sh rin k 2 88
A fte r c o n tro llin g for IQ , th e p ro b a b ility o f g rad u atin g fro m c o lle g e is
a b o u t th e sam e for w h ites a n d L a tin o s, h ig h e r for b la c k s 320
A fte r c o n tro llin g for IQ , b la c k s an d L a tin o s h a v e su b sta n tia lly h ig h e r
p ro b a b ilitie s th a n w h ites o f b e in g in a h ig h -IQ o c c u p a tio n 322
A fte r c o n tr o llin g for IQ , e th n ic w age d iffe re n tia ls sh rin k from th o u
san d s to a few h u n d red d o lla rs 32 3
C o n tr o llin g for IQ cu ts th e p o v erty d iffe re n tia l by 77 p e rc e n t for b lac k s
an d 7 4 p e rc e n t for L a tin o s 326
A fte r c o n tro llin g for IQ , th e e th n ic d isc re p an c y in m ale u n e m p lo y
m e n t sh rin k s by m ore th a n h a lf for b la c k s an d d isa p p e ars for L a
tin o s 328
C o n tr o llin g for I Q e x p la in s little o f th e large b lac k -w h ite d iffe re n ce in
m arriage rate s 329
C o n tr o llin g for I Q n arrow s th e L atin o -w h ite d iffe re n ce in ille g itim a cy
b u t le a v e s a large g ap b e tw e e n b lac k s a n d w h ites 331
C o n tr o llin g for IQ cu ts th e gap in b lac k -w h ite w elfare rate s by h a lf an d
th e L atin o -w h ite gap by 8 4 p e rc e n t 332
E v e n a m o n g p o o r m o th ers, c o n tr o llin g for IQ d o e s n o t d im in ish th e
b lac k -w h ite d isp arity in w elfare re c ip ie n c y 333
C o n tr o llin g for IQ cu ts th e b lac k -w h ite d isp arity in low -b irth -w eigh t
b a b ie s by h a lf 334
C o n tr o llin g for IQ red u ces th e d isc re p an c y b etw e e n m in o rity an d w h ite
c h ild re n liv in g in p o v erty by m o re th a n 8 0 p e rc e n t 335
x iv List of Illustrations
C o n tro llin g for IQ c u ts the eth n ic disparity in h om e e n v iro n m e n ts by

h a lf for b lack s a n d m o re th an 60 percent for L atin o s 335
C o n tro llin g for IQ m ore th an elim in ates overall eth n ic d ifferen ces in
the d e v e lo p m e n ta l in d ex es 336
B ased o n n a tio n a l n orm s, h igh percentages o f m inority c h ild ren rem ain
in th e b o tto m d e c ile o f IQ after c o n tro llin g for th e m o th e rs IQ 337
C o n tro llin g fo r IQ cu ts the black-w hite d ifferen ce in in ca rc e ratio n by
alm o st th ree-q u arters 338
T h e M C V In d e x , befo re and after con tro llin g for IQ 339
T h e h igh er the e d u c a tio n , the fewer the b ab ies 349
Fertility falls as e d u c atio n al level rises in sim ilar fash ion for black, w h ite,
an d L atin o w om en 353
T h e sw ing in so c ia l problem s that c an result from sm all shifts in the
m ean IQ o f a p o p u la tio n 368
Forty-eight p e rc e n t o f the p o o r in 1989 cam e from the b o tto m 2 0 p er
c en t in in te llig e n c e 370
T w o-thirds o f h ig h sch o o l dropouts cam e from th e b o tto m 20 p e rce n t
in in tellig en ce 372
S e v e n te e n p e rc e n t o f the m en who worked year-round in 1989 w ere in
the b o tto m 2 0 p e rc e n t of in telligen ce 373
Sixty-fou r p e rc e n t o f ab le-bod ied m en who did n o t w ork in 1989 w ere
in the bo ttom 2 0 p e rc en t a t in telligen ce 3 74
T w enty-nine p e rc e n t of able-bod ied m en who were tem porarily ou t of
work in 1989 w ere in the b o tto m 20 percent of in te llig e n ce 375
S ixty -tw o p e rc e n t o f m en ev er interview ed in ja il or p riso n c am e from
the bo ttom 2 0 p e rc e n t o f in telligen ce 376
Forty-five p e rc e n t o f w om en w ho ever received w elfare w ere in th e b o t
tom 20 p ercen t o f in tellig en ce 377
Fifty-seven p e rc e n t of ch ron ic welfare recipients were in the b o tto m 20
percent of in te llig e n c e 377
Fifty-tw o p e rc e n t o f illegitim ate children were b o m to m oth ers in th e
bo tto m 20 p e rc e n t o f in telligen ce 378
T h irty -o n e p e rc e n t o f ch ild ren living with divorced or sep arated m o th
ers h ad m oth ers w ith IQ s in the bottom 20 p ercen t of in te llig e n ce 379
Forty-five p e rc e n t o f low -birth-w eight babies h ad m oth ers in th e b o t
tom 20 p erc en t o f in telligen ce 381
Fifty-six p e rc e n t o f all ch ild ren from the b o tto m d e cile in h o m e
e n v iro n m en t w ere born to m others in the b o tto m 20 p e rce n t o f in
tellig en ce 382
List of Illustrations xv
S ix ty -th re e p ercen t o f ch ild ren w ho lived in p overty th ro u g h o u t

th e first th ree years had m oth ers in the b ottom 2 0 p e r c e n t o f in
te llig e n c e 383
S e v en ty -tw o p ercen t of ch ild ren in th e bo ttom d ecile o f I Q h a d m o th
ers in th e b o tto m 20 p ercen t o f in tellig en c e 384
T e n p e rc en t o f p eop le scorin g y es on the M iddle C la ss V alu e s in d e x
were in the b o tto m 20 p ercen t o f in tellig en ce 385
T h e d im in ish in g returns to c o a c h in g for the S A T 401
IQ g ain s attrib u tab le to the C o n so rtiu m presch ool p ro je c ts 406
A h alf-cen tu ry o f Iow a tests: Im p ro v em en t as the norm , th e slu m p a s a
tw elve-year ab erratio n 4 24
Forty -on e years o f S A T scores 425
A m o n g the m ost gifted stu d en ts, th ere is good new s ab o u t m a th , bad
new s ab o u t verbal 4 29
A t se le c tiv e sch ools, th e m edian b la c k edge was 180 S A T p o in ts, w h ile
A sia n s faced a m edian p en alty of 3 0 p oin ts 452
W h e n aggressive affirm ativ e a c tio n began , b lack c o lle g e e n ro llm e n t
surged for a d ecad e 4 69
T h e stu d e n ts-eye-view o f c o g n itiv e ability 472
T h e u n certain effects o f affirm ativ e a c tio n in the w ork place 485
A revised view o f eq u al em p lo y m en t opportunity after c o rre c tin g for
e th n ic differen ces in th e IQ d istrib u tio n s 490
In the 1970s, eco n o m ic grow th b e g an to enlarge the afflu e n t c la ss 516
List of Tables
O v e rla p A cro ss th e E d u c atio n al P a rtitio n s 49

T h e V alid ity o f th e G A T B for D ifferen t Types o f Job s 73
T h e V alid ity o f th e A F Q T for M ilitary T rain in g 74
T h e R o le o f g in E x p lain in g T rain in g S u c ce ss for V arious M ilitary S p e -
c ia ltie s 77
T h e V alid ity o f S o m e D ifferen t P red icto rs o f Jo b P erform ance 81
E d u c atio n , E x p erien ce, and W ages, 1 9 7 9 -1 9 8 7 95
W h ite P overty by P aren ts S o c io e c o n o m ic C lass 131
W h ite P overty by C o g n itiv e C la ss 132
Failure T o G e t a H ig h S c h o o l E d u c atio n A m o n g W h ites 146
W h ic h W h ite Y oung M en S p e n t a M o n th or M ore O u t of th e L a b o r
Force in 1989? 158
Jo b D isab ility A m o n g Y oung W h ite M ales 161
W h ic h W h ite Y oung M en S p e n t a M o n th or M ore U n e m p lo y e d in
1989? 163
W h ic h W h ites G e t M arried W h en ? 171
W h ic h W h ite s G e t D iv o rc e d W h e n ? 174
T h e In c id e n c e o f Illegitim acy A m o n g Young W h ite W om en 180
T h e P ro p o rtio n o f First B irth s T h a t A re Illegitim ate 181
C irc u m sta n c e s o f the First B irth A m o n g W hites 181
W h ich W h ite W o m en G o on W elfare A fte r the B irth o f the F irst
C h ild ? 194
E d u c atio n al A tta in m e n t o f W h ite C h ro n ic W elfare R ecip ie n ts 199
Low B irth W eigh t A m o n g W h ite B ab ies 215
W h ic h W h ite C h ild re n G ro w U p in th e W orst H om es? 221
W h ich W h ite T o d d lers H a v e the W orst T em peram en ts? 226
W h ich W h ite C h ild ren A r e B e h in d in M otor and S o c ia l D e v e lo p -
m en t? 227
W h ich W h ite C h ild re n H a v e th e W orst B eh avioral P roblem s? 227
IQ in the M o th er an d the C h ild for W h ites in the N L S Y 230
xv iit List o f Tables
C rim in a lity a n d IQ A m o n g W h ite M ales 246

T h e O d d s o f G e t tin g In v o lv e d with the P olice an d C o u rts for Y oung
W h ite M a les 247
T h e O d d s o f D o in g T im e for Young W h ite M ale s 248
W h ite s an d th e M id d le - C la ss V alu es Index 264
R e d u c tio n s in the B la c k -W h ite D ifference on th e N a tio n a l A sse ssm e n t
o f E d u c a tio n a l Progress 291
B la c k W ages A s a P erc e n tag e o f W hite W ages, 1989 .324
A g e a t C h ild b e a rin g 35 2
T h e N e x t G e n e r a tio n S o Far, lor T h re e E th n ic G ro u p s in th e
N LSY 3 54
E th n ic D ifferen c es in T est S c o re s in Two G e n e ra tio n s 356
R eg ressio n to th e M e a n a n d E th n ic D ifferences in T e st S c o re s in T w o
G e n e ra tio n s 357
IQ E q u iv ale n ts for the D e c ile s 371
P rev alen ce of L ow IQ A m o n g M oth ers o f C h ild re n w ith D e v e lo p m e n
tal P ro b lem s 383
W h at S A T S c o r e D e c lin e ? T h e R esults o f the N a tio n a l N o rm S tu d ie s,
1 9 5 5 -1 9 8 3 422
A ffirm ativ e A c t io n W eigh ts: T h e Law S c h o o l A p titu d e T est 455
A ffirm ativ e A c t io n W eig h ts: The M e d ical C o lle g e A d m issio n s
T est 4 56
A p p lic a n ts to G r a d u a te S c h o o ls 458
T h e B la c k -W h ite IQ D iffe re n c e by Jo b C atego ry , 1 9 9 0 488
T ypical R e su lts o f S ta t e T e a c h e r C o m p ete n cy E x a m in a tio n s 493
Jo b P erfo rm an ce o f B la c k A ffirm ativ e A c tio n Plum bers and P ipe F itters
C o m p a re d to W h ite R e g u la r H ires 497
A Note to the Reader
W e h a v e d esign ed The Bell C urve to be read at several levels.

A t th e sim p lest level, it is on ly ab o u t thirty pages long. E ach chap-
ter e x c e p t th e In tro d u ctio n and th e fin al two ch apters op en s w ith a
p recis o f th e m ain fin din gs and c o n clu sio n s m inus any e vid en ce for
th em , w ritten in an in form al style free o f tech n ical term s. You can get
a g o o d id ea o f w hat we h av e to say by reading ju st those introductory
essays.
T h e n e x t level is th e m ain tex t. It is accessib le to an y on e who eiv
joys read in g, for exam p le, the sc ie n ce sectio n o f the new s m agazines.
N o sp e c ia l kn ow led ge is assu m ed ; everyth in g you need to know to fob
low all o f th e d iscu ssio n is c o n ta in e d w ithin the book. T h e m ain text
d oes in clu d e con sid erab le te c h n ic a l m aterial, how ever. T h e d o cu m eiv
ta tio n becom es esp ecially e x te n siv e w hen we com e to a top ic so c o iv
tro versial th at m any readers w ill h av e a T h is c a n t possibly be true
reactio n .
S p r in k le d th ro u gh o u t th e b o o k are boxes th at add m ore detail,
d iscu ss alte rn a tiv e w ays o f th in k in g ab ou t the data, o r relate tidbits
th at d o n t quite fit in the text. You m ay skip any o f these w ithout
in terru p tin g the flow o f th e n arrativ e, but we th ink they ad d som e
th in g (or they w o u ld n t be th e re ), and we encourage you to dip into
them .
T h e en d n o tes provid e th e usual sch olarly references. S o m e o f them ,
in d icated in te x t by e n d n o te n um bers enclosed in brackets, add short
d iscu ssio n s th at will be o f in terest m ostly to specialists.
Finally, d ie ap p e n d ix e s e la b o ra te o n key issues. For ex am p le, readers
w ho co m e to the b o ok u n fam iliar w ith statistics will find th at A p p e n
dix 1 su pplies th e basics; if you w an t to know m ore ab ou t the debate
over cu ltu ral b ias in in tellig en c e tests, A p p en d ix 5 guides you through
the literature on th at issue; and so on. O th er ap p en d ix es lay o u t the sta
tistical d etail th at could n o t be fit in to the m ain text an d was too bulky
for a n o te.
xx Note to Reader
R e g a rd in g th o se pesky im personal third-person sin g u lar pro-

n o u n s an d o th e r o c c a sio n s w hen the auth ors m ust assign a g en d er to a
fic titio u s p e rso n u sed to illustrate a point, it seem s to us there is a sim -
pie, fair so lu tio n , w h ich we hereby endorse: U n le ss there are o b v io u s
reaso n s n o t to, use th e gen d er of th e first author. W e use he th ro u gh o u t.
Preface
T h is b o o k is ab ou t d ifferen ces in in te lle c tu a l c a p a c it y a m o n g p e o p le an d

group s an d w hat th ose d ifferen ces m ean, fo r A m e r ic a s fu tu re . T h e re la
tio n sh ip s we will be d iscu ssin g are a m o n g th e m o s t s e n s it iv e in c o n
tem porary A m e ric a so se n sitiv e th a t h ard ly a n y o n e w rite s o r talk s
ab o u t th em in public. It is n o t for lac k o f in fo rm a tio n , a s y o u w ill see.
O n th e contrary, k n o w led ge a b o u t th e c o n n e c t io n s b e tw e e n in te lli
g e n c e an d A m e ric an life h a s b een a c c u m u la tin g fo r y ears, a v a ila b le in
the jo u rn a ls h eld by any g o o d u n iv e rsity library a n d o n th e c o m p u te r
tap es and disks o f public u se d atab ases.
P eo p le h ave shied from th e to p ic fo r m an y re a so n s. S o m e th in k th a t
the c o n c e p t o f in telligen ce has b e e n p ro v e d a frau d . O t h e r s re c a ll t o
talitaria n eu gen ic sch em es based o n I Q sc o re s o r w orry a b o u t su c h
sc h em es arisin g on ce the su b je c t b re a k s in to th e o p e n . M a n y fe a r th a t
d iscu ssin g in telligen ce will p ro m o te rac ism .
T h e friends an d co lle a g u e s w h ose c o n c e r n s we ta k e m o st se rio u sly say
so m e th in g like this: Yes, w e a c k n o w le d g e th a t in te llig e n c e is im p o r
tan t and th at p eo p le differ. B u t th e U n it e d S t a t e s is fo u n d e d o n th e p rin
cip le th at p eop le should be eq u al u n d e r th e law. S o w h a t p o ssib le
re le v an ce can in dividu al d ifferen ces in in te llig e n c e h a v e to p u b lic p o l
icy? W h a t good can com e o f w ritin g th is b o o k ? I n an sw er, w e a sk th ese
friends an d you, the reader, to sh are fo r a m o m e n t ou r v ie w o f th e s it u
a tio n , p erh ap s sup pressin g so m e d o u b ts a n d a ssu m in g a s tru e th in g s th at
we w ill subseq uen tly try to p rove are tru e. H e re is o u r sto ry :
A great n atio n , fou n ded o n p r in c ip le s o f in d iv id u a l lib e rty a n d self-
g o v ern m en t th at c o n stitu te th e c ro w n in g a c h ie v e m e n t o f sta te c r a ft,
ap p ro ac h es the end of th e tw e n tie th cen tu ry . E q u a lity o f rig h ts
an o th e r cen tral p rin ciple h as b e e n im p la n te d m o re d e e p ly an d m ore
su ccessfu lly th an in any o th e r so c ie ty in h istory. Y et e v e n a s th e p r in c i
ple o f eq u al righ ts triu m p h s, stran g e th in g s b e g in to h a p p e n to tw o sm all
se g m en ts o f the p o p u latio n .
In on e segm en t, life gets b e tte r in m a n y w ays. T h e p e o p le in th is g ro u p
are w elcom ed at th e best c o lle g e s, th e n a t th e b e s t g r a d u a te a n d p ro fe s
x x ii Preface
sionaL sc h o o ls, re g ard le ss o f their p aren ts w ealth . A fte r they c o m p le te

th eir e d u c a tio n , th ey e n te r fulfilling and p restigiou s careers. T h e ir in
c o m es c o n tin u e to rise e v e n when in com e grow th stag n ate s for e v e ry
o n e else. B y th e ir m aturity, these fortun ate o n es c o m m o n ly h a v e
six-figu re in c o m e s. T ech n o lo g y works in th eir behalf, e x p a n d in g th eir
o p tio n s and th e ir freed o m , puttin g u n p reced en ted resou rces a t th eir
c o m m an d , e n h a n c in g th eir ability to do w hat they e n jo y d oin g. A n d as
these g oo d th in g s h a p p e n to them , they g rav itate to o n e an o th er, in
creasin g ly e n a b le d by th eir affluence and by te ch n o lo g y to w ork t o
g eth er a n d liv e in o n e a n o th ers com pan y an d in iso la tio n from
every bod y else.
In the o th e r grou p , life gets worse, and its m em bers c o lle c t at th e b o t
tom o f society. P o v erty is severe, drugs and crim e are ram p an t, an d th e
trad itio n al fam ily all b u t disappears. E c o n o m ic grow th p asses them by.
T e ch n o lo g y is n o t a p a rtn e r in their lives but an e le ctro n ic o p iate . T h e y
live to g e th e r in u rb a n c e n te rs or scattered in rural b ack w aters, bu t th e ir
p resen c e h o v ers o v e r th e o th e r parts o f tow n and cou n try sid e a s w ell,
c re atin g fear an d re se n tm e n t in the rest o f so ciety th at is seld o m o p e n ly
ex p ressed b u t fe ste rs iw n e th e le ss.
P ressures from th e se c o n trastin g m ovem en ts at the o p p o site en d s o f
so ciety put terrific stress o n the entire structure. T h e m ass o f the n a tio n
b e lo n g s to n e ith e r g ro u p , bu t their lives are in creasin gly sh ap e d by the
pow er o f the fo rtu n a te few an d the plight of the d esp airin g few. T h e c u l
tu res sen se o f w h at is righ t and w rong, virtu ou s and m ean , a tta in a b le
an d u n a tta in a b le m o st im portant, its sense o f how p eop le are to liv e
to g e th e r is a lte re d in m yriad ways. T h e fragile web o f civility, m u tu al
regard , an d m u tu al o b lig a tio n s at the h eart of any h appy society begin s
to tear.
In trying to th in k th ro u gh w hat is h ap p en in g an d why and in trying
to u n d erstan d th ereb y w h at ought to be d on e, th e n a tio n s so c ial s c ie n
tists a n d jo u r n a lists a n d p o litician s seek e x p la n a tio n s. T h e y e x a m in e
c h a n g e s in th e e co n o m y , c h an g es in d em o grap h ics, ch an g e s in th e c u l
ture. T h e y p ro p o se so lu tio n s founded on b ette r e d u c atio n , on m ore an d
b ette r jo b s, o n sp e c ific so c ia l in terven tion s. B u t they ign ore an u n d e r
lyin g e le m e n t th a t h as sh a p e d the ch an ges: h u m an in te llig e n c e th e
way it varies w ith in th e A m e ric a n p o p u la tio n and its cru cially c h a n g
in g role in o u r d e stin ie s d u rin g the last half o f th e tw en tieth century. T o
try to c o m e to g rip s w ith th e n a tio n s problem s w ith ou t u n d e rstan d in g
th e role o f in te llig e n c e is to see through a glass darkly in deed , to grop e
Preface x x iii
w ith sy m p to m s in ste a d o f causes, to stu m b le in to su p p o se d rem ed ies th a t

h av e n o c h a n c e o t w ork in g.
W e are n o t in d iffe re n t to th e w ays in w hich th is b o ok , w rongly c o n
strued, m igh t d o h a rm . W e h a v e w orried a b o u t th e m from the d ay we
se t to work. But th e re c a n be n o real progress in so lv in g A m e ric a s s o
c ial p ro b lem s w h en th e y are as m isp erc eiv e d a s th ey are today. W h a t
good c a n com e o f u n d e rsta n d in g th e re latio n sh ip o f in te llig e n c e to s o
c ial stru c tu re an d p u b lic policy? L ittle g oo d c a n c o m e w ith o u t it.
Acknowledgments
T h e first th in g th at m ade this book p o ssib le w as our good fortu n e in b e

in g w here we are H arvard U n iv e rsity an d the A m e rican E n terprise In
stitu te. D ifferen t as they are in m any ways, these tw o sp len did
in stitu tio n s gave us a g ift th at is to o often tak en for granted: freedom
and su p po rt to pursue o u r in quiries w herever they took us.
For learn ed an d o ften creative ad v ic e for d e alin g with m e th o d o lo g i
c a l issues, our th an ks go to Jam es H eck m an , D erek N e a l, R o b e rt R o se n
th al, D o n a ld R u b in , C h risto p h e r W in sh ip , and the H arvard P sych ology
D e p a rtm e n ts S e m in ar o n th e A n aly sis o f P sy ch o logical D ata. T h e staff
o f the C e n te r for H u m an R esou rce R esearch P au la B aker m u st be sin
gled o u t w ere un failin gly ready to answ er our qu estions ab ou t the in
trica c ies o f the N a tio n a l L o n g itu d in a l Survey o f Youth. In th e w orld o f
p sy ch o m etrics and testin g, we ben efited esp ecially from the ad v ice of
R o b ert Forsyth, A rth u r Je n sen , R ic h a rd Lynn, L en R am ist, M alco lm
R ee, an d Fran k S c h m id t. O th ers w h o h av e read ch apters or listen ed to
us try to ex p la in w hat w ere up to and th en h ave offered ad vice, or at
least raised th eir eyebrow s usefully, are D ouglas Besharov, Eileen
B lu m e n th al, Jo h n Bunzel, Jo h n D ilu lio , C h risto p h er D eM u th , D avid
E llw ood , R ich ard E p stein , R o n a ld H askin s, Jam es H errn stein , K arl
H ess, M ic h a e l H orow itz, Fred Jew ett, M ich ael Joyce, C h e ry l Keller,
R o b ert K litg aard , Irvin g K ristol, R ich ard Larry, M arlyn L ew is, G le n n
Loury, H arv ey M an sfield , Fran k M iele, M ich ael N o v ak , W arren R eed,
D an ie l S e lig m a n , Irw in Stelzer, Jo a n K en n ed y Taylor, A b ig a il T h e m -
strom , D a n ie l V in in g, D e a n W h itla , Jam e s W ilson , and D ouw e Y ntem a.
A lo n g w ith som e o f th o se already m en tio n ed , Jo h n B ish op , P h ilip C o o k ,
G e o rg e B o rjas, R o b ert Fran k, S a n d ra Scarr, and R ich ard W ein berg p ro
vided us w ith drafts o f th eir o n g o in g w ork th at filled in m issin g pieces
of the puzzle.
W e too k u n blu sh in g ad v a n tag e o f th e energy an d good n atu re o f re
search assistan ts, with Kris K irby a n d Ira C a rn a h a n tak in g on so m e huge
tasks early in th e w ork, follow ed by the in valu able h elp o f K ristin
xxvi Acknowledgments
C a p lic e , Jo se p h Fazioli, and one other who asked to rem ain an o n y m o u s

ou t o f h is w ish to preserve, as he put it, a viable p o litic al future.
A ll o f th ese p eo p le, and others whom we h av e surely forgo tten o v e r
the years, d eserv e our thanks for their help, but n o t th e risk o f b ein g
held a c c o u n ta b le for w hat w eve done w ith it.
W e were lucky to h av e Erwin G lik es as our ed itor an d A m a n d a U r
b an as our a g e n t the best in the business, and utterly u n d au n te d by
th e h azards o f th is enterprise. The B ell Curve is Erw ins title, and its m a n
u script w as th e last h e com pleted ed itin g before his d eath .
In a list of ack n o w led gm en ts, we would be rem iss n o t to m e n tio n e a c h
other. We d ec id ed to write this book in N o v e m b e r o f 1989, an d sin ce
the sprin g o f 1 9 9 0 h a v e been working a t it nearly full tim e, for lo n g
stretch es m uch m ore than full time, in co n tin u al c o lla b o ra tio n . O u r
partn ersh ip h as led to a m ore com pellin g in tellectu al ad v e n tu re a n d a
deeper frien d sh ip th an we could have im agined. A u th o rsh ip is a lp h a
betical; the w ork w as sym biotic.
A t last, h ow sh all we express our th an ks to S u san H e rrn ste in and
C ath e rin e C o x ? T h e y could n ot be, and were not, overjoyed to see th eir
h u sban ds em b ark o n a project as controversial as this on e. But they h av e
endured our p re o c c u p a tio n with the book and its in tru sion in to o u r fa m
ilies lives w ith love a n d humor. Beyond th at, each o f th em read the e n
tire m an u scrip t, persuasively but affection ately p ressin g o n us th e
ben efit o f th eir fine ju d gm en t, their good sense, and th eir h on esty. In
m ore ways th a n on e, this book could n o t h av e been w ritten w ith o u t
their help.
R ich ard J. H e rrn ste in

C h arle s M urray
3 Ju n e 1994
Introduction
T h a t th e word intelligence d escribes so m e th in g re a l an d th a t it v a rie s

from p erson to person is as un iversal and a n c ie n t as an y u n d e r s ta n d in g
ab ou t the state o f being h um an . L ite ra te c u ltu re s e v e ry w h e re an d
th ro u gh o u t history h av e had w ords for sa y in g th a t so m e p e o p le are
sm arter th an others. G iv e n th e su rvival v a lu e o f in te llig e n c e , th e c o n
c ep t m ust be still old er th an th at. G o ssip a b o u t w h o in th e trib e is c le v e r
est h as probably been a top ic o f c o n v e rsa tio n a ro u n d th e fire s in c e fires,
and c o n v ersatio n , were in vented.
Yet for th e last thirty years, the c o n c e p t o f in te llig e n c e h a s b e e n a
p ariah in th e world of ideas. T h e atte m p t to m e a su re it w ith te sts h a s
b een variou sly dism issed as an artifact o f ra c ism , p o litic a l r e a c tio n , s t a
tistical bunglin g, and sch olarly fraud. M an y o f you h a v e re a c h e d th is
p age assu m in g th at th ese ac c u satio n s are p ro v e d . In su c h a c o n t e x t
co m es this book, blith ely p roceed in g on th e a ssu m p tio n th a t in te lli
g en ce is a reasonably w ell-un d erstood c o n stru c t, m e asu re d w ith a c c u
racy an d fairness by any num ber o f stan d ard ized m e n ta l te sts. T h e rest
o f this hook can be better follow ed if you first u n d e rsta n d w hy w e c a n
h o ld su c h ap p aren tly h etero d o x view s, an d for th is it is n e c e ssa ry to
know so m e th in g ab ou t the story of m easured in te llig e n c e .
IN T E L L IG E N C E A SC E N D A N T
V ariatio n in in telligen ce becam e the su b je c t o f p ro d u c tiv e s c ie n tific

study in the last h alt o f the n in ete e n th century, s tim u la te d , lik e so m an y
oth e r in te lle c tu al d ev elo p m en ts o f th at era, by C h a r le s D a r w in s th eo ry
of e v o lu tio n . D arw in h ad asserted th at the tra n sm issio n o f in h e rite d in
te llig e n c e w as a key step in h u m an e v o lu tio n , d r iv in g o u r s im ia n a n
c e stors ap art from the oth er apes. S ir F ran cis G a lt o n , D a rw in 's y ou n g
c o u sin and already a celeb rated g eo grap h er in h is o w n rig h t, seized on
this id ea and set ou t to d em o n strate its c o n tin u in g r e le v a n c e hy u sin g
the g re at fam ilies o f B ritain as a prim ary so u rc e of d a ta . H e p re se n te d
e v id e n c e th at in tellectu al c ap ac ity of v a rio u s so rts ran in fa m ilie s in
2 Introduction
Hereditary G enius, p u b lish ed ju st a d ecad e after the a p p e aran ce o f O ri

gin of Species in 1 859. S o b e g a n a lo n g and deeply c o n tro v ersial asso ci-
atio n b etw een in te llig e n c e a n d h ered ity that rem ain s w ith us to d ay .1
G a lto n realized th a t h e n eed ed a precise, q u an titativ e m easure o f th e
m en tal q u alities h e w as try in g to analyze, and thus h e w as led to p u t in
form al term s w h at m o st p e o p le h a d always tak en for gran ted: P eo p le
vary in th eir in te lle c tu al ab ilities a n d the differences m atter, to th em
p erso n ally an d to society .2 N o t on ly are som e p eop le sm arter th an o th
ers, said G a lto n , bu t e a c h p e rso n s p attern o f in tellectu al ab ilitie s is
u n iqu e. P eo p le d iffer in th e ir talen ts, their in tellectu al stren g th s and
w eakn esses, their p referred form s o f imagery, their m en tal vigor.
W orkin g from th ese o b se rv atio n s, G a lto n tried to d evise an in te lli
gen ce test as we u n d erstan d th e term today: a set o f item s p ro b in g in
te lle c tu a l c a p ac itie s th a t cou ld be grad ed objectively. G a lto n h ad the
id ea th a t in tellig en ce w o u ld surface in the form o f sen sitiv ity o f p e r
c e p tio n s, so h e c o n stru c te d tests th a t relied o n m easures o f acu ity o f
sigh t a n d h earin g , se n sitiv ity to slig h t pressures on th e sk in , an d sp e e d
o f reac tio n to sim p le stim u li. H is tests failed, but oth ers follow ed w here
G a lto n h a d led. H is m o st in flu e n tial im m ediate successor, a F re n c h psy
c h o lo gist, A lfred B in et, so o n d ev elo p ed questions th at atte m p te d to
m easure in telligen ce by m easu rin g a persons ability to reason , draw
a n alo g ies, an d identify p a tte rn s.3 T h e se tests, crude as they w ere by m o d
e m stan d ard s, m e t the key c riterio n th at G a lto n s tests cou ld not: T h e ir
results gen erally a c c o rd ed w ith c o m m o n understan dings o f h ig h a n d low
in tellig en ce.
By th e en d o f th e n in e te e n th century, m ental tests in a form th at
we w ould recognize to d ay w ere alread y in use th rou gh ou t the B ritish
C o m m o n w ealth , th e U n ite d S ta te s, m uch o f co n tin e n ta l E u ro pe, and
J a p a n .141 T h e n , in 1904, a form er B ritish A rm y officer n am e d C h a rle s
S p e a rm a n m ade a c o n c e p tu a l an d statistical break th rou gh th a t has
sh ap ed b o th the d e v e lo p m e n t and m uch o f the m e th o d o lo g ical c o n tr o
versy ab o u t m en tal te sts e v e r sin ce .5
By th a t tim e, c o n sid e rab le progress had been m ade in statistics. U n
lik e G a lto n in h is early years, in v estigato rs in the early tw e n tie th c e n
tury h a d av ailab le to th e m a n in valu able num ber, th e correlation
coefficient first d evised by G a lto n h im se lf in 1888 an d e lab o rate d by h is
d iscip le, K arl P earso n .6 B efo re the co rrelatio n co efficien t w as av ailab le ,
sc ie n tists cou ld o b serve th a t two v ariab les, such as h e ig h t an d w eigh t,
seem ed to vary to g e th e r (th e taller th e heavier, by an d large), bu t they
Introduction 3
h ad no way o f say in g exactly h ow m u ch th e y w ere related. W ith P ear

so n s r, as th e c o e ffic ie n t w as labeled , th ey n o w could specify how m u ch
o f a re latio n sh ip e x isted , o n a sc ale ran g in g from a m inim um o f - 1 (for
p erfectly in v erse relatio n sh ip s) to +1 (for p erfectly d irect relatio n sh ip s).
S p e a rm a n n o te d th a t a s th e d ata from m an y differen t m e n tal tests
w ere a c c u m u latin g , a curious result k e p t tu rn in g up: If the sam e group
o f p eo p le to o k tw o d ifferen t m e n tal tests, an y on e w ho did w ell (o r
poorly) o n o n e test ten d ed to d o sim ilarly w ell (o r poorly) o n the other.
In sta tistic a l term s, the scores o n th e tw o tests w ere p ositively corre
lated . T h is o u tc o m e did n o t seem to d e p e n d o n the sp ecific c o n te n t o f
the tests. A s lo n g as th e tests in v o lv ed c o g n itiv e skills o f o n e sort or a n
other, th e p o sitiv e c o rrelatio n s ap p eared . F urth erm ore, in dividu al item s
w ith in tests sh o w ed p o sitiv e co rrelatio n s a s w ell. If there w as any cor
relatio n a t all b e tw een a p air o f item s, a p e rso n w ho go t on e o f them
righ t ten d ed to g et th e o th er o n e right, an d v ic e versa for th ose w ho got
it w rong. In fa c t, th e p atte rn w as stronger th a n th at. It turned ou t to be
nearly im p o ssib le to d ev ise item s th at p lau sibly m easured som e c o g n i
tive skill an d w ere not p ositively co rrelated w ith oth er item s th at p lau
sibly m easured so m e co g n itiv e skill, h o w ev er d isp arate the pair o f skills
m igh t ap p ear to be.
T h e size o f th e p o sitiv e c o rrelatio n s a m o n g the pairs o f item s in a test
did vary a lot, how ever, an d it w as th is c o m b in atio n -positive correla
tio n s th ro u gh o u t th e c o rrelatio n m atrix, b u t o f varying m agnitudes
th at in spired S p e a r m a n s in sight.*71 W h y are alm o st all the correlations
p o sitiv e? S p e a rm a n asked. B ecau se, h e answ ered, they are tappin g into
the sam e g e n e ra l trait. W hy are the m ag n itu d es different? B ecause som e
item s are m ore clo sely related to this g en era l trait than oth ers.181
S p e a r m a n s sta tistic a l m eth od , an early e x a m p le o f w hat h as sin ce b e
c o m e know n a s fac to r an alysis, is c o m p lex, an d we will exp lo re som e o f
th ose c o m p le x itie s. B u t, for now, the b asis for fac to r analysis c an be read
ily u n d ersto o d . In so far as tw o item s tap in to the sam e trait, they share
so m e th in g in c o m m o n . S p e a rm a n d e v e lo p e d a m eth od for estim atin g
how m u ch sh arin g w as go in g o n in a g iv e n se t o f data. From alm o st any
su ch c o lle c tio n o f m en tal or ac ad e m ic test scores, S p e arm a n s m eth od
o f an aly sis u n co v ered ev id en c e for a u n itary m e n tal factor, w hich he
n am ed g, for g e n e ra l in te llig e n c e . T h e e v id e n c e for a gen eral factor in
in tellig en ce w as p erv asiv e but c irc u m stan tial, based on statistical an aly
sis rath er th an d ire c t o b serv atio n . Its reality therefore was, and rem ains,
arguable.
4 Introduction
S p e arm a n th e n m ad e a n o th e r m ajo r co n trib u tion to the stu d y o f in

te llig en c e by d e fin in g w h at th is m ysterious g represen ted. H e h y p o th e
sized th at g is a g e n e ra l c a p a c ity for inferring and applyin g re latio n sh ip s
d raw n from ex p erien ce. B e in g ab le to grasp, for ex am p le, th e re la tio n
sh ip betw een a p air o f w ords like harvest and yield, or to recite a list o f
d ig its in reverse order, or to see w h at a geom etrical p atte rn w ould look
like u psid e dow n, are e x a m p le s o f tasks (an d o f test item s) th a t draw o n
g as S p e a rm a n c o n c e iv e d o f it. T h is definition o f in tellig en ce differed
subtly from th e m ore p re v ale n t id ea that in telligen ce is the ab ility to
learn an d to gen eralize w h at is learn ed . T h e course o f learn in g is affected
by in telligen ce, in S p e a r m a n s view , but it was n ot th e th in g in itself.
S p e a rm a n ia n in te llig e n c e w as a m easure o f a p e rso n s cap acity for c o m
p lex m en tal work.
M ean w h ile, o th e r testers in E u rope and A m erica co n tin u ed to refine
m en tal m easu rem e n t. B y 1 9 0 8 , th e co n cep t o f mental level (la te r called
m ental age) h ad b e e n d ev elo p ed , follow ed in a few years by a sligh tly
m ore so p h istic a te d c o n c e p t, the in telligence q u o tien t. IQ at first w as
ju st a w ay o f e x p re ssin g a p e rso n s (usually a c h ild s) m en tal le v e l re la
tiv e to h is or h er co n te m p o rarie s. Later, as the uses of testin g sp read , IQ
b ecam e a m ore g e n e ra l way to express a p erson s in te lle c tu al p erfo r
m an ce relative to a g iv e n p o p u la tio n . A lready by 1917, so o n alte r th e
c o n c e p t o f IQ w as first d efin ed , th e U .S . A rm y was ad m in isterin g in
tellig en c e tests to classify a n d assign recruits for W orld W ar 1. W ith in a
few years, th e letters IQ h ad en tered the A m erican vern acu lar, w here
they rem ain today as a un iversally understood syn on ym for in te llig e n c e .
T o th is p o in t, th e study o f co g n itiv e abilities w as a su ccess story, re p
resen tin g o n e o f th e rare in stan c e s in which the new soft sc ie n c e s w ere
ab le to d o th eir w ork w ith a rigor n o t too far sh ort o f the stan d a rd s of
th e trad itio n al sc ie n c e s. A n ew sp ecialty w ithin psych ology w as cre ate d ,
psych om etrics. A lth o u g h th e d e b a te s am ong th e p sy ch o m etrician s w ere
often fierce an d p ro tra cte d , they produced an e x p an d e d u n d e rstan d in g
o f w h at w as in v o lv e d in m e n tal capacity. T h e c o n c e p t o f g su rvived , e m
b ed d ed in an in creasin gly c o m p le x theory of th e structure o f c o g n itiv e
ab ilities.
B ecau se in te llig e n c e tests p urported to test rigorously a n im p o rta n t
an d valu ed trait a b o u t p e o p le (in clu d in g ourselves and our lo v ed o n e s),
IQ also becam e o n e o f the m o st v isib le and con troversial p ro d u c ts o f s o
c ia l scien ce. T h e first w av e o f p u b lic controversy occu rred d u rin g th e
first d ecad es o f th e century, w h en a few testing en th u siasts p rop osed u s
Introduction 5
in g the results of m e n tal tests to support ou trageo u s racial p olicies. S te r

ilization law s w ere p assed in six te e n A m e ric a n states betw een 1907 and
1917, w ith th e elim in a tio n o f m en tal reta rd a tio n being on e o f th e prim e
targets o f the p u b lic policy. T h re e g e n e ra tio n s o f im beciles are e n o u g h ,
Ju stic e O liv e r W en d ell H o lm es d eclared in an op in io n u p h oldin g th e
c o n stitu tio n a lity o f su ch a law.9 It w as a sta te m e n t m ade possible, p e r
h ap s en co u rag ed , by the new en th u siasm for m en tal testing.
In th e early 1920s, th e ch airm an o f th e H ou se C o m m itte e on Im m i
g ratio n and N a tu ra liz a tio n ap p o in ted an E xp ert E u gen ical A g e n t for
h is c o m m itte e s work, a bio lo g ist w ho w as esp ecially co n cern ed about
k e ep in g up th e A m e ric a n level o f in tellig en c e by su itable im m igration
p o lic ie s.10 A n a ssistan t professor o f psychology at P rin ceton , C a rl C .
B righ am , w rote a b o ok en titled A Study o f American Intelligence using
th e results o f the U .S . A rm y s W orld W ar I m en tal testin g program to
c o n c lu d e th a t an in flux o f im m igran ts from sou th ern and eastern E u
rope would low er n ativ e A m e ric an in telligen ce, and th at im m igration
th erefo re sh ou ld be restricted to N o rd ic sto c k (see the box ab ou t tests
an d im m ig ra tio n ).11
Fact and Fiction A bout Im migration and Intelligence Testing
Two stories about early IQ testin g h ave en tered the folklore so thoroughly
that people who know alm ost n oth ing else about that history bring them
up at the b egin n in g o f alm ost any discussion o f IQ. T h e first story is that
Jew s and o th e r im m igrant groups were thought to be below average in in
telligence, ev en feeblem inded, which goes to show how untrustworthy
such tests (a n d the testers) are. T h e other story is that IQ tests were used
as the basis for the racist im m igration p olicies o f the 1920s, which shows
how dan gerous such tests (an d the testers) are .12
T h e first is based on the work done at Ellis Island by H. H . G oddard,
who exp licitly preselected b is sam ple for eviden ce of low intelligence (his
purpose was to test his tests usefulness in screen in g for feeblem indedness),
and did n ot try to draw any conclu sion s ab ou t the general distribution of
intelligence in im m igrant group s.11 T h e secon d has a stronger circum stan
tial case: Brigh am published his book ju st a year before C ongress passed
the Im m igration R estriction A c t o f 1924, w hich did indeed tip the flow o f
im m igrants toward the western and northern Europeans. T h e difficulty
with m aking the causal case is that a close reading of the hearings tor the
bill show s n o evidence th at B righ am s book in particular or IQ tests in gen
eral played any ro le .14
6 Introduction
C r itic s resp o n d ed vo cally. Y oung W alter L ip p m an n , already an in

flu e n tia l co lu m n ist, w as o n e o f th e m ost p rom in en t, fearin g pow er-h u n
gry in tellig en c e testers w h o yearn ed to occupy a p o sitio n o f pow er
w h ich n o in te lle c tu a l h a s h e ld sin ce the co llap se o f th eo cracy . 15 In a
len g th y ex c h a n g e in th e N ew Republic in 1922 an d 1923 w ith L ew is Ter-
m an , p rem ier A m e r ic a n te ste r o f th e tim e and th e d ev e lo p e r o f th e S ta n -
fo rd -B in et IQ test, L ip p m a n n w rote, I h ate th e im p u d en ce o f a c la im
th a t in fifty m in u tes you c a n ju d g e and classify a h u m an b e in g s p re d e s
tin ed fitn ess in life. I h a te th e p reten tiousn ess o f th at claim . I h ate th e
ab u se o f sc ie n tific m e th o d w h ich it involves. I h ate th e sen se o f su p e ri
ority w h ich it c reates, an d th e sen se o f inferiority w h ich it im p o ses. 16
L ip p m a n n s c h a ra c te riz a tio n o f the tests and the testers w as so m e
tim es u n fair an d o fte n fa c tu a lly w rong, as T erm an en erg etically p o in te d
o u t.17 B u t w hile T e rm a n m ay h a v e won the tec h n ica l argu m en ts, L ip p -
m a n n was righ t to w orry th a t m an y people were eager to find c o n n e c
tio n s b etw een the resu lts o f te stin g and the m ore ch illin g im p lic atio n s
o f so c ia l D arw in ism . E v e n if th e psych om etrician s gen erally m ade m o d
est c la im s for how m u c h th e tests predicted, it rem ain ed true th at I Q
th at sin gle n u m b er w ith th e m em orable label was se d u ctiv e . A s
L ip p m a n n feared, p e o p le d id ten d to give m ore cred en ce to an in d iv id
u a ls sp ecific IQ sco re a n d m ak e broader gen eralization s from it th an w as
ap p ro p riate. A n d n o t least, th ere was plenty to criticize in th e p sy c h o
m e tric ia n s results. T h e m e th o d s for collectin g and analyzin g q u a n tita
tiv e p sy c h o lo g ic al d a ta w ere still new, and som e basic in feren tial
m istak es were m ade.
If the tests had b e e n fata lly flaw ed or m erely u n in fo rm ativ e , th ey
w ould h av e v a n ish e d . W h y th is did not h ap p en is o n e o f the stories we
w ill be tellin g, but w e m ay a n tic ip a te by ob servin g th at th e use o f tests
en d u red and grew b e c a u se so c ie ty s largest in stitu tio n s sc h o o ls, m ili
tary forces, in du stries, g o v e rn m e n ts depend sig n ifican tly on m e asu r
ab le in d iv id u al d ifferen ces. M u c h as som e observers w ished it w ere n o t
tru e, th ere is o fte n a n eed to assess differences betw een p eo p le as o b
jec tiv ely , fairly, a n d effic ie n tly as possible, an d ev en th e early m e n ta l
te sts o fte n did a b e tte r jo b o f it th an any o f the altern ativ es.
D u rin g th e 1 9 3 0 s, m e n ta l tests evolved an d im proved as th eir use
c o n tin u e d to sp read th ro u g h o u t th e world. D av id W ech sler w orked o n
th e in itial v ersio n o f th e tests th a t would even tually b e co m e the W e c h s
ler A d u lt In te llig e n c e S c a le a n d the W echsler In tellig en ce S c a le for
C h ild re n , the fam o u s W A IS an d W IS C . T erm an an d his asso c ia te s p u b
Introduction 7
lished an im p ro v ed versio n o f th e S tan fo rd -B in e t. But these tests w ere

in dividu ally ad m in istered an d h ad to b e scored by trained p erson n el,
and they w ere th erefore too ex p en siv e to ad m in ister to large groups of
p eople. P sy ch o m etrician s and test p u b lish ers raced to d evelop group-
ad m in istered tests th at cou ld be g rad ed by m ach in e. In the search for
p ractical, ec o n o m ic a l m easu rem en ts o f in telligen ce, testing grew from
a co ttag e in du stry to big business.
W orld W ar II stim u lated an o th er m a jo r ad v an ce in the state o f the
art, as p sy c h o lo g ists d ev elo p ed p ap er-an d -p en cil tests th at cou ld a c c u
rately identify sp ecific m ilitary ap titu d es, ev en on es th at included a sig
n ific an t e le m e n t o f p h y sical ap titu d e (su ch as an aptitu de for flying
airp la n es). S h o rtly after th e war, p sy ch o lo gists at the U n iv ersity o f M in
n eso ta d e v e lo p e d the M in n e so ta M u ltip h a sic P ersonality Inventory, the
first m ac h in e-g rad ab le stan dardized te st w ith dem onstrated validity as
a p red icto r o f variou s p erson ality disorders. L ater cam e the C alifo rn ia
P sy ch o lo gical Inventory, w hich m easured personality ch aracteristics
w ith in th e n o rm al ran ge so cial p resen c e and self-con trol, for e x
am p le. T h e testin g industry was flou rish in g, and the an n u al Mental M e a
surements Yearbook th at c atalo g e d the tests grew to hundreds o f pages.
H un dreds o f m illio n s o f p eo p le th ro u gh o u t the world were being psy
c h o lo g ica lly tested every year.
A tta c k s o n testin g faded in to the backgrou nd during th is period.
T h o u g h so m e p sy ch o m etrician s m ust h av e know n th at the tests were
cap tu rin g h u m an d ifferen ces th at h ad u n settlin g p o litical and social im
p lic atio n s, no o n e o f any stature w as trying to use the results to prom ote
d iscrim in atory, let alo n e eu gen ic, laws. A n d though m any in tellectu als
ou tsid e th e testin g p ro fessio n knew o f th ese results, th e political ag e n
das o f th e 1940s and 1950s, w h eth er o f N ew D eal D em ocrats or E i
sen h o w er R ep u b lic an s, w ere m ore p ragm atic th an ideological. Yes,
in te llig e n c e varied , but th is was a fact o f life th at seem ed to h av e little
b earin g o n the way p u blic p olicy was con d u cted .
IN T E L L I G E N C E B E S IE G E D
T h e n c a m e th e 1960s, an d a new con troversy ab ou t in telligen ce tests

th at co n tin u e s to this day. It arose n o t from new findings but from a new
o u tlo o k o n p u b lic policy. B eg in n in g w ith th e rise o f powerful social d em
o c ratic a n d so c ia list m o v em en ts afte r W orld W ar I and acceleratin g
across th e d ec ad es u n til th e 1960s, a fu n d am e n tal shift was tak in g place
8 Introduction
in th e rec eiv ed w isd o m re g ard in g equality. T h is w as m o st e v id e n t in the

p o litic a l aren a, w h ere th e civ il righ ts m ovem en t an d th en th e W ar on
P o v e rty raised A m e r ic a n s c o n scio u sn ess ab ou t th e n atu re o f th e in-
e q u a litie s in A m e r ic a n society. B u t th e ch an ges in o u tlo o k ran d eep er
an d b ro ad er th a n p o litic s. A ssu m p tio n s ab ou t the very origin s o f so cial
p ro b le m s c h a n g e d p rofoun dly. N o w h ere w as the sh ift m ore p e rv asiv e
th an in th e field o f p sych ology.
P sy c h o m e tric ia n s o f th e 1930s h ad d ebated w h eth er in te llig e n c e is
a lm o st en tirely p ro d u c e d by gen es or w hether the e n v iro n m e n t also
p lay s a role. By th e 1 9 6 0 s an d 1970s th e p o in t o f c o n te n tio n had sh ifted
d ram atica lly . It h a d so m e h o w b eco m e c o n tro v ersial to c laim , esp ecially
in p u b lic , th a t g e n e s h a d an y effect at all o n in tellig en ce. Iron ically , the
e v id e n c e for g e n e tic fa c to rs in in telligen ce had greatly stre n g th e n e d
d u rin g th e very p e rio d w h e n th e term s o f the d eb ate w ere m o v in g in the
o th e r d irec tio n .
In the p sy c h o lo g ic a l laboratory, there was a sim ilar sh ift. P sy c h o lo g
ical e x p e rim e n te rs early in th e cen tu ry were, if an y th in g, m ore likely to
c o n c e n tr a te o n th e in b o rn p attern s o f h u m an and a n im al b e h a v io r th an
o n h o w th e le arn in g p ro c e ss co u ld ch an g e b e h a v io r.18 B u t from the
19 3 0 s to th e 19 6 0 s, th e le ad in g beh avio rists, as they were c a lle d , and
th eir stu d e n ts an d d isc ip le s w ere alm o st all sp ecialists in le arn in g th e
ory. T h e y filled th e te c h n ic a l jo u rn a ls w ith the resu lts o f le arn in g e x
p e rim e n ts o n rats an d p ig e o n s, th e tac it im p licatio n b ein g th at g e n e tic
e n d o w m e n t m atte re d so little th at we could ign ore the d ifferen ces
a m o n g sp ecies, le t a lo n e a m o n g h u m an in dividu als, an d still d isc o v e r
e n o u g h a b o u t th e le a rn in g p rocess to m ake it useful an d re le v a n t to
h u m a n c o n c e r n s.19 T h e r e are, in deed , asp ects o f th e learn in g p rocess
th at cro ss th e lin es b e tw e e n sp ecies, bu t there are also e n o rm o u s d iffer
e n c e s, an d th ese d iffe re n c e s w ere som etim es ign ored or m inim ized w hen
p sy c h o lo g ists e x p la in e d th e ir fin din gs to the lay p u blic. B. F. S k in n e r, at
H a rv a rd U n iv ersity , m o re th an any oth er o f the lead in g b e h av io rists,
b ro k e o u t o f th e a c a d e m ic w orld into public atte n tio n w ith b o o k s that
a p p lie d th e fin d in g s o f lab o rato ry research o n an im a ls to h u m a n so c i
ety a t la rg e .20
T o th o se w ho h eld th e b e h a v io rist view, h u m an p o te n tia l was alm o st
p e rfe ctly m a lle a b le , sh a p e d by th e en v iron m en t. T h e cau ses o f h u m an
d e fic ie n c ie s in in te llig e n c e or p aren tin g, or so c ial beh avio r, or work
b e h a v io r lay o u tsid e th e in d iv id u al. T h ey were cau sed by flaw s in so
ciety. S o m e tim e s c a p ita lis m was b lam ed , som etim es a n u n carin g or in
Introduction 9
co m p eten t g o v ern m en t. Further, th e cau ses o f th ese deficien cies could be

fixed by the righ t public p o licies red istribution o f w ealth , better ed u ca
tion, better h o u sin g and m edical care. O n c e th ese en v iro n m en tal causes
were rem oved , th e d eficien cies should v a n ish as w ell, it was argued.
T h e co n trary n o tio n th at in d ivid u al d ifferen ces co u ld not easily be
d im in ish ed by go v ern m en t in te rv e n tio n c o llid e d h ead -o n with th e
e n th u siasm fo r e g alitarian ism , w h ich itse lf c o llid e d h e ad -o n w ith a h alf-
cen tu ry o f I Q d ata in d icatin g th at d ifferen ces in in telligen ce are in
trac ta b le a n d sig n ifican tly h eritab le and th at th e av erage IQ o f various
so c io e c o n o m ic and e th n ic groups differs.
In 1 969, A rth u r Jen sen , a n e d u c atio n al p sy c h o lo g ist and exp ert o n
testin g from th e U n iv ersity o f C alifo rn ia a t Berkeley, p u t a m atch to this
v o la tile m ix o f scien ce an d ideology w ith an a rtic le in th e H arvard E d
ucational Review .21 A sk ed by the Reviews ed ito rs to con sid er why c o m
pen sato ry a n d rem edial e d u catio n p rogram s begu n w ith such h igh h opes
d u rin g the W ar o n Poverty had yield ed su ch d isap p o in tin g results,
Je n se n c o n c lu d e d th at the p rogram s w ere bou n d to h av e little success
b ecau se they w ere aim ed at p o p u la tio n s o f y ou n gsters with relatively
low IQ s, an d su ccess in sc h o o l d ep en d ed to a co n sid e rab le degree on IQ .
IQ h ad a large h eritab le co m p o n e n t, Je n se n also n o ted . T h e article fur
ther d isc lo se d th at the youn gsters in th e targeted p o p u latio n s were d is
p ro p o rtio n a tely b lac k an d th a t h isto rica lly b lac k s as a p op u latio n h ad
e x h ib ite d av e rag e IQ s su bstan tially below th o se o f w hites.
T h e re ac tio n to Je n se n s article was im m ed iate an d violen t. From
1969 th ro u gh th e m id -1970s, dozens o f b o o k s an d hu n d red s o f articles
ap p eared d e n o u n c in g the use o f IQ tests an d arg u in g th at m ental a b il
ities are d ete rm in e d by en v iro n m en t, w ith th e g e n e s playing a m inor
role a n d race n o n e at all. Je n se n s n am e b ecam e synonym ou s w ith a c o n
ste lla tio n o f h atefu l ways o f th in kin g. It p erh ap s is im possible to e x a g
gerate the im p o rta n c e o f th e Je n se n d isg ra c e , w rote Jerry H irsch , a
p sy c h o lo g ist sp ecializin g in the g e n e tic s o f a n im al b eh avior w ho w as
am o n g Je n s e n s m ore v eh em en t critics. It h as p erm eated both scien ce
an d th e u n iv e rsitie s an d h oo d w in k ed large seg m en ts o f gov ern m en t and
society. L ik e V ie tn am and W atergate, it is a co n tem p o rary sym ptom of
seriou s a fflic tio n . 22 T h e title o f H irsc h s artic le w as T h e B an kru p tcy
o f S c ie n c e W ith o u t S c h o la rsh ip . D u rin g th e first few years after the
H arvard Educational Review article was p u b lish e d , Je n se n could appear
in n o p u b lic forum in the U n ite d S ta te s w ith o u t triggering som eth in g
perilously c lo se to a riot.
10 Introduction
T h e u p roar w as e x a c e rb a te d by W illiam Sh ockley, w h o h ad w on th e

N o b e l Prize in p h ysics fo r h is con trib u tion s to th e in v e n tio n o f th e tran-
sisto r b u t had turned h is a tte n tio n to h um an v a ria tio n tow ard the end
o f h is career. A s e c c e n tric as h e was brilliant, h e o fte n recalled the eu-
g e n ic ists o f th e early d e c a d e s o f the century. H e p rop osed , as a th o u g h t
e x e rc ise , a sc h e m e for p ay in g p eop le w ith low IQ s to b e sterilized .2 H e
su p p o rte d (an d co n trib u te d to) a sperm bank for gen iu ses. H e seem ed
to re lish ex p ressin g se n sitiv e scien tific findings in a w ay th at w ould out-
rag e or d istu rb as m any p e o p le as possible. Je n se n and S h o ck ley , utterly
u n lik e as they w ere in m o st respects, soo n cam e to be classed to g eth er
as a p air o f rac ist in te lle c tu al cranks.
T h e n on e o f us, R ic h a rd H errn stein , an e x p erim e n tal p sy ch o lo g ist at
H arv a rd , strayed in to fo rb id d en territory w ith an artic le in th e S e p -
te m b er 1971 A tlantic M onthly,24 H errn stein barely m en tio n ed race, but
h e did talk ab o u t h e rita b ility o f IQ . H is p ro p o sitio n , p u t in th e form o f
a sy llo gism , w as th a t b e c au se IQ is substan tially h eritab le, b ecau se e c o
n o m ic su ccess in life d e p e n d s in p art on the talen ts m easured by IQ tests,
a n d b ecau se so c ia l sta n d in g depen ds in part on e c o n o m ic su ccess, it fo l
low s th a t so cial sta n d in g is hound to be based to som e e x te n t o n in h e r
ite d d ifferen ces. By 1 9 7 1 , th is had becom e a c o n tro v e rsial th in g to say.
In m e d ia ac c o u n ts o f in telligen ce, the n am es Je n se n , Sh o ck ley , an d
H e rrn ste in becam e rou gh ly in terch an geab le.
T h a t sam e year, 1971, th e U .S . Su prem e C o u rt outlaw ed th e use o f
stan dardized ab ility tests by em ployers unless they h ad a m an ifest re la
tio n sh ip to th e sp ecific jo b in qu estion because, th e Su p rem e C o u rt
h eld , stan dardized tests a c te d as built-in h ead w in d s for m in ority groups,
e v e n in the ab sen ce o f d iscrim in atory in ten t.25 A year later, the N a tio n a l
E d u c a tio n A sso c ia tio n c alled upon the n a tio n s sch o o ls to im pose a
m orato riu m o n all stan dardized in telligence testin g, h yp oth esizin g th a t
a th ird o r m ore o f A m e ric a n citizens are in tellectu ally fold ed, m u tilated
or sp in d led before they h a v e a ch an ce to get throu gh elem en tary sc h o o l
b e c au se o f lin gu istically o r culturally biased stan dardized te sts.26 A
m o v e m e n t th a t h ad b egu n in the 1960s gained m om en tu m in th e early
1 9 7 0s, as m ajo r sch o o l system s throughout the country, in clu d in g th ose
o f C h ic a g o , N e w York, a n d L os A n geles, lim ited or b an n ed th e use o f
g ro u p -ad m in istered stan dardized tests in public sch o o ls. A n u m ber o f c o l
le g e s a n n o u n c ed th a t th ey w ould n o longer require the S c h o la stic A p t i
tu d e T est as p art o f th e ad m ission s process. T h e legal m o v e m e n t ag ain st
Introduction 11
tests reach ed its ap ogee in 1978 in the c a se o f Larry P. Ju d g e R o b e r t P e c k -

h am o f th e U .S . D istrict C o u rt in S a n Fran cisco ruled th a t it w as u n
c o n stitu tio n al to use IQ tests for p la c e m e n t o f ch ild ren in c la sse s fo r th e
educably m en tally retarded if th e use o f th ose tests resu lted in p la c e m e n t
of grossly d isp ro p o rtio n ate n um bers o f b lack c h ild ren .27
M e an w h ile , th e in tellectu al d e b a te h ad tak en a n e w a n d p e r so n a liz e d
turn. T h o se w ho claim ed th a t in te llig e n c e was su b sta n tia lly in h e r ite d
were n o t ju st w rong, the critics now d isco v ered , th ey w ere c h a r la t a n s as
well. L e o n K a m in , a p sy c h o lo g ist th e n at P rin ceton , o p e n e d th is p h a s e
o f th e d e b a te w ith a 1974 b o ok , The Science and Politics o f IQ . P a t r io
tism , we h a v e b een told , is th e last refuge o f sc o u n d re ls, K a m in w ro te
in th e o p e n in g pages. P sy ch o lo g ists an d b iologists m ig h t c o n s id e r th e
p ossibility th a t h eritability is th e first. 28 K am in w en t o n to c h a r g e th a t
m en tal te stin g an d b e lie f in th e h eritab ility o f IQ in p a rtic u la r h a d b e e n
fostered by p eo p le w ith righ t-w in g p o litic a l view s an d r a c ist s o c ia l v ie w s.
T h ey h ad en g aged in p seu d o sc ien c e, h e wrote, su p p ressin g th e d a t a th e y
did n o t lik e an d ex agg eratin g th e d a ta th at agreed w ith th e ir p r e c o n
cep tio n s. E x am in e d carefully, th e c ase for the h e ritab ility o f I Q w as n il,
co n c lu d ed K am in .
In 1 976, a B ritish jo u rn alist, O liv e r G illie , p u blish ed an a r tic le in th e
London Sunday Times th at seem ed to co n firm K am in 's th e sis w ith a s e n
satio n a l re v e latio n : T h e recen tly d e c e ase d C yril Burt, B r ita in s m o st e m
in en t p sy ch o m etrician , a u th o r o f th e largest and m o st fam o u s stu d y o f
the in te llig e n c e of id en tical tw in s w h o grew up a p a n , w a s c h a r g e d w ith
frau d .w H e h ad m ade up d ata, fu d ged his results, an d in v e n te d c o a u
thors, th e Sunday Times d ec lared . T h e subseq u en t s c a n d a l w as as b ig as
th e P iltd o w n M a n h o ax. C y ril B u rt h a d n o t b een ju st a n o th e r re se a r c h e r
but on e o f th e g ian ts o f tw en tieth -cen tu ry psychology. N o r c o u ld h is
co llea g u es find a ready d efen se (th e d efen se cam e later, as d e s c r ib e d in
the b o x ). T h e y p rotested th at th e rev e latio n s did n o t c o m p r o m is e th e
g reat b u lk o f th e w ork th at b o re on th e issue o f h eritab ility , b u t th e ir d e
fenses so u n d e d feeble in th e lig h t o f th e su sp icio n s t h a t h a d p re c e d e d
B u rts exp o su re.
F o r th e p u b lic ob serv in g th e u p ro ar in the ac ad e m y fro m th e s id e
lines, th e c ap sto n e o f the a ssa u lt o n th e integrity o f th e d is c ip lin e o c
curred in 1981 w hen H arvard p a le o b io lo g ist S te p h e n J a y G o u ld , a u th o r
o f se v e ra l p o p u lar b o ok s o n biology, p u b lish ed The M ism easu re o f M a n . '1
G o u ld e x a m in e d th e history o f in te llig e n c e testin g, fo u n d th a t it w as
12 Introduction
T h e B urt Affair
It would be more th a n a d e cad e before the Burt affair was su bjected to de

tailed reexam in ation . In 1989 and 1991, two accounts o f the Burt alle ga
tions, by p sych ologist R o b ert Joynson and sociologist R on ald Fletcher,
w ritten independently, co n clu d ed that the attacks again st Burt had been
m o tivated by a m ixture o f profession al and ideological antagonism an d that
no credible case o f d a ta falsificatio n or fictitious research or researchers had
ever been p resen ted .30 B o th authors also concluded that som e o f B u rts
lead in g critics were aw are th at their accusations were inaccurate even at
the tim e they m ade them . A n ironic afterword centers on B u rts claim that
the correlation betw een th e IQ s of identical twins reared apart is + .7 7 . A
correlation this large a lm o st irrefutably supports a large gen etic influence
on IQ . S in ce the a tta c k s on B u rt began, it had been savagely derided as
fraudulent, the p rodu ct o f B u rts fiddling with the data to m ake his case.
In 1990, the M in n e so ta tw in study, accepted by m ost scholars as a m odel
o f its kind, produced its m ost detailed estim ates of the correlation o f IQ
betw een identical tw ins reared apart. T h e procedure that m ost closely par
alleled B u rts yielded a co rrelatio n o f + .7 8 .31
p e o p led by c h a rla ta n s, rac ists, and self-deluded fools, and c o n c lu d e d

th at d eterm in ist a rg u m e n ts fo r ranking p eop le acco rd in g to a sin gle
sc ale o f in te llig e n c e , n o m a tte r how num erically so p h istic ate d , h a v e
record ed little m ore th a n so c ia l p reju dice.33 The M ism easure o f M an
b e c am e a b est-seller a n d w on the N a tio n a l B o o k C ritic s C ir c le
A w ard.
G o u ld and h is a llie s h a d w o n the visible battle. By th e early 1980s, a
new receiv ed w isd o m a b o u t in telligen ce had b een form ed th a t w en t
rou gh ly as follow s:
Intelligence is a bankrupt concept. Whatever it might m ean and nobody

really knows even how to define it intelligence is so ephemeral that no one
can m easure it accurately. I Q tests are, o f course, culturally biased, and
so are all the other aptitude" tests, such as the SA T . To the extent that
tests such a s IQ an d S A T m easure anything, it certainly is not a n innate
intelligence. IQ scores are not constant; they often change significantly
over a n individuals life sp an . The scores o f entire populations can be ex
pected to change over time look at the Jew s, who early in the twentieth
century scored below average on IQ scores and now score well above the
Introduction 13
average. Furtherm ore, the tests are nearly useless as tools, as confirmed
by the well-documented fact that such tests do not predict anything except
success in school, Earnings, occupation, productivity all the important
m easures o f success are unrelated to the test scores. A ll that tests really
accomplish is to label youngsters, stigmatizing the ones who do not do well
arid creating a self-fulfilling prophecy that injures the socioeconomically dis
advantaged in general and blacks in particular.
IN T E L L IG E N C E R E D U X
A s far as p u b lic d iscu ssio n is c o n cern ed , this co lle c tio n o f beliefs, w ith
som e v ariatio n s, rem ain s th e sta te o f w isdom ab ou t cogn itiv e ab ilities
and IQ tests. It bears alm o st no re latio n to th e current state o f k n ow l
edge a m o n g sch o lars in the field, how ever, an d therein lies a tale. T h e
d ialo g u e a b o u t testin g h as been c o n d u c te d at tw o levels during the last
two d e c a d e s th e visib le o n e played o u t in th e press and the su bter
ran ean o n e played out in th e tech n ical jo u rn a ls and books.
T h e case ot A rth u r Je n se n is illu strative. T o the public, h e surfaced
briefly, p u b lish ed an article th at was d iscred ited , and fell back into o b
scurity. W ith in th e w orld o f p sy ch om etrics, how ever, h e con tin u ed to
be o n e of th e p ro fessio n s m ost p rolific sc h o lars, resp ected for h is m e tic
ulous research by colleagu es o f every th eo retic al stripe. Je n se n had n ot
recan ted. H e c o n tin u ed to build o n the sam e em pirical findings that had
g o tte n him in to such trouble in the 1960s, bu t prim arily in tech n ical
p u b lic atio n s, w here n o o n e ou tsid e th e p rofession h ad to n o tice. T h e
sam e th in g was h ap p en in g th ro u gh o u t psych om etrics. In the 1970s,
sch o lars o b serv ed th at c o lleag u es w ho tried to say publicly th at IQ tests
had m erit, o r th a t in tellig en ce w as su b stan tially in herited, or ev en th at
in te llig e n c e existed as a d efin ab le and m easu rable h u m an quality, paid
too h igh a price. T h e ir careers, fam ily lives, relation sh ips w ith c o l
leagues, a n d e v e n physical safety co u ld be jeopardized by sp eak in g out.
W hy sp eak ou t w hen th ere was n o c o m p e llin g reason to do so? R esearch
o n c o g n itiv e ab ilities co n tin u ed to flourish , b u t only in the san ctu ary o f
the ivory tower.
In this c lo istered en v iro n m en t, th e c o n tin u in g d ebate ab ou t in telli
g en c e w as co n d u cted m uch as d eb ates are con d u cted w ithin any oth er
ac ad em ic d isc ip lin e. T h e p u blic con tro v ersy h ad surfaced som e genuine
issues, an d the c o m p etin g p arties set a b o u t trying to resolve them . C o n
14 Introduction
tro v e rsia l h y p o th e se s w ere p u t to th e test. S o m e tim e s th ey w ere c o n

firm e d , so m e tim e s re je c te d . O fte n th ey led to new q u e stio n s, w h ich were
th e n e x p lo red . S u b s ta n tia l p ro g ress w as m ade. M an y o f the issu es th at
c re a te d su c h a p u b lic fliror in th e 19 7 0 s were resolved , an d th e stu d y o f
c o g n itiv e a b ilitie s w e n t o n to e x p lo re new areas.
T h is is n o t to say th a t c o n tro v e rsy has ended, on ly th at th e c o n tr o
versy w ith in th e p ro fe ssio n a l in te llig e n c e testin g c o m m u n ity is m uch
d iffe ren t fro m th a t o u tsid e it. T h e issues th at seem m ost salie n t in arti
c le s in the p o p u lar p ress ( I s n t in tellig en c e d eterm in ed m ostly by e n v i
ro n m en t? A r e n t the te sts u seless b ecau se th ey re b iased ?) are n o t m ajo r
to p ic s o f d eb ate w ith in th e p ro fe ssio n . O n m any o f th e p u blicly d iscu ssed
q u e stio n s, a sch o larly c o n se n su s h a s been reach ed .34 R ath er, th e c o n
te n d in g p artie s w ith in th e p ro fe ssio n a l com m u n ity d iv id e alo n g o th e r
lin es. By th e early 1 9 9 0 s, th e y c o u ld be roughly d iv id ed in to th ree fac
tio n s for our pu rp oses: th e c la ssic ists, the revision ists, an d th e rad icals.
T h e C la ssic ists: Intelligence a s a Structure
T h e c la ssic ists w ork w ith in th e trad itio n begun by S p e a rm a n , se e k in g

to id en tify the c o m p o n e n ts o f in tellig en c e m uch as p h ysicists se e k to
id en tify th e stru ctu re o f th e a to m . A s o f the 1990s, th e c lassicists are for
p ra c tic a l p u rp o ses u n a n im o u s in a c c e p tin g th at g sits a t th e c e n te r o f
th e stru ctu re in a d o m in a tin g p o sitio n n ot ju st as an artifact o f sta tis
tica l m a n ip u la tio n b u t as a n e x p re ssio n of a core h u m an m en tal ab ility
m u ch like th e ab ility S p e a r m a n id en tified at the turn o f th e century. In
th eir view, g is o n e o f th e m o st th orou gh ly d em o n strated en titie s in the
b e h a v io ra l sc ie n c e s a n d o n e o f th e m o st pow erful for u n d e rstan d in g so
c ially sig n ific a n t h u m a n v a ria tio n .
T h e c la ssic ists to o k a lo n g tim e to reach th is level o f co n se n su s. T h e
in k o n S p e a r m a n s first a rtic le o n th e topic in 1904 w as barely dry b e
fore o th e rs w ere arg u in g th a t in te lle c tu a l ability could n o t be ad eq u ately
c a p tu re d by g or by an y o th e r u n itary q u an tity a n d u n d e rstan d ab ly so,
for c o m m o n sen se reb els a g a in st th e idea th at so m e th in g so im p o rtan t
ab o u t p e o p le as th eir in te lle c ts c a n b e captured e v e n rough ly by v a ria
tio n s in a sin g le q u an tity . M a n y o f th e fam ous n am es in the h isto ry o f
p sy c h o m e tric s c h a lle n g e d th e reality o f g, startin g w ith G a lto n s m ost
e m in e n t early d isc ip le , K a rl P e a rso n , and co n tin u in g w ith m any oth er
c re a tiv e a n d in flu e n tia l p sy c h o m e tric ia n s.
In d iv e rse w ays, th ey so u g h t th e g rail o f a set o f prim ary and m u tu
ally in d e p e n d e n t m e n ta l a b ilitie s. F or S p earm an , there w as ju st o n e such
Introduction 15
p rim ary ability, g. For R ay m o n d C a tte ll, there are two k in d s o f g, crys
tallized and fluid, w ith crystallized g b ein g general in te llig e n ce tran s
form ed in to th e skills o f on e's ow n cu lture, and fluid g bein g th e
all-p u rp ose in te lle c tu al c ap ac ity from w h ich the crystallized skills are
form ed . In L o u is T h u rsto n e s theory o f in tellig en ce, th ere are a half-
dozen or so prim ary mental abilities, su ch as verb al, q u an titativ e , sp atial,
an d th e like. In Philip V ern o n s theory, in tellectu al c a p ac itie s are
arran ged in a h ierarch y w ith g at its ap e x ; in Jo y G u ilfo rd s, th e stru c
ture o f in te lle c t is refined in to 120 or m ore in tellectu al co m p o n en ts.
T h e th e o re tic a l a ltern a tiv es to unitary, g en era l in telligen ce h av e com e
in m any sizes, sh ap es, and degrees o f plausibility.
M an y o f th ese efforts proved to h av e lastin g value. For ex am p le, C a t-
te lls d istin c tio n betw een fluid an d crystallized in telligen ce rem ain s a
useful c o n c e p tu a l co n trast, ju st as o th er work h as done m uch to clarify
w hat lies in the d o m ain o f sp ecific ab ilities th at g c a n n o t accou n t for.
B u t n o on e h a s b een ab le to d ev ise a se t o f tests th at d o n o t reveal a
large g en era l fac to r o f in tellectu al ab ility in oth er words, som eth in g
very like S p e a r m a n s g. Furtherm ore, th e classicists p oin t out, the best
stan d ard ized tests, su ch as a m o d ern IQ test, do a reasonably good jo b
o f m easu rin g g. W h en properly ad m in istered , the tests are n o t m easur
ably b iased a g a in st so c io e c o n o m ic, eth n ic , or racial subgroups. T h ey
p red ict a w id e variety o f socially im p o rta n t outcom es.
T h is is n o t th e sam e as sayin g th at th e classicists are satisfied w ith
th eir u n d e rstan d in g o f in telligen ce, g is a statistical entity, and current
research is p ro b in g the underlying n eu ro lo gic basis for it. A rth u r Jen sen ,
th e a rc h e ty p al cla ssic ist, h as b een a c tiv e in th is effort for th e last decad e,
retu rn in g to G a lt o n s in tu itio n th at p erform an ce on elem en tary c o g n i
tive tasks, su c h as reactio n tim e in recogn izin g sim ple p atte rn s o f ligh ts
an d sh ap es, p rovid es a n entry p o in t in to u n d erstan din g th e physiology
o fg .
The R evision ists: Intelligence as Inform ation Processing
A theory o f in telligen ce need n o t be stru ctu ral. T h e e m p h a sis may be

on p rocess rath er th an on structure. In o th e r words, it m ay try to figure
out w h at a p erso n is doing w hen e x e rc isin g h is or h er in te llig e n ce , rath er
th an w h at e le m e n ts o f in tellig en ce are p u t together. T h e great Sw iss
p sy c h o lo g ist, Je a n P iaget, started h is c areer in A lfred B in e ts laboratory
trying to a d a p t C y ril B u rts in telligen ce tests for Parisian c h ild ren . P iaget
16 Introduction
d isc o v e re d q u ick ly th a t h e w as less in te re ste d in h o w w ell th e c h ild re n

d id th a n in w h at errors th ey m a d e .1351 E rrors re v e a le d w h at th e underly-
in g p ro c e sse s o f th o u g h t m u st h a v e b e e n , P ia g e t b e lie v e d . It w as th e
p ro c e sse s o f in te llig e n c e th a t fa sc in a te d h im d u rin g h is lo n g a n d illu s
triou s career, w h ich led in tim e to h is th eo ry o f th e sta g e s o f c o g n itiv e
d e v e lo p m e n t.
S ta r tin g in th e 19 60s, re search o n h u m a n c o g n itio n b e c a m e th e p re
o c c u p a tio n o f e x p e rim e n ta l p sy c h o lo g ists, d isp la c in g th e a n im a l le a r n
in g e x p e rim e n ts o f th e e arlier p erio d . It w as in e v ita b le th a t th e new
e x p e rim e n ta lists w ou ld tu rn to th e stu d y o f h u m a n in te llig e n c e in n a t
u ral se ttin g s. J o h n B. C a rro ll a n d E arl B . H u n t led th e w ay from th e c o g
n itio n lab o rato ry to th e stud y o f h u m a n in te llig e n c e in every d ay life.
T o d a y Y ale p sy c h o lo g ist R o b e rt S te rn b e r g is a m o n g th e lead ers o f th is
d e v e lo p m e n t.
T h e re v isio n ists sh are m u c h w ith th e c la ssic ists. T h e y a c c e p t th a t a
g e n e ra l m e n ta l a b ility m u c h lik e S p e a r m a n s g h as to be in c o rp o ra te d
in to an y th eo ry o f th e stru ctu re o f in te llig e n c e , alth o u g h th ey w ou ld n o t
ag ree th a t it a c c o u n ts for a s m u c h o f th e in te lle c tu a l v a r ia tio n a m o n g
p e o p le as m an y c la ssic ists cla im . T h e y use m an y o f th e sam e sta tistic a l
to o ls as th e c la ssic ists a n d are p rep ared to su b je c t th eir w ork to th e sam e
stan d a rd s o f rigor. W h e re th ey d iffer w ith th e c la ssic ists, how ever, is
th e ir a ttitu d e to w ard in te lle c tu a l stru ctu re a n d th e te sts u se d to m e a
sure it.
Yes, th e re v isio n ists argu e, h u m a n in te llig e n c e h a s a stru ctu re, b u t is
it w orth in v e stin g all th a t effo rt in d isc o v e rin g w h at it is? T h e p re o c
c u p a tio n w ith stru ctu re h a s e n g e n d e re d p re o c c u p a tio n w ith su m m ary
sco res, th e re v isio n ists say. T h a t, after all, is w h at a n IQ sco re rep resen ts:
a c o m p o site o f sco res th a t in d iv id u a lly m easu re q u ite d istin c t in te lle c
tu a l p ro c esses. O f c o u rse, S te rn b e rg w rites, a tester c a n alw ays a v e r
age o v e r m u ltip le sco res. B u t are su c h a v e rag e s re v e a lin g , o r d o th ey
c am o u flag e m o re th a n th ey rev ea l? If a p e rso n is a w on derfu l visu alizer
b u t c a n barely c o m p o se a se n te n c e , a n d a n o th e r p erso n c a n w rite g lo w
in g p ro se b u t c a n n o t b e g in to visu alize th e sim p le st sp a tia l im ag es, w h at
d o you really learn a b o u t th ese tw o p e o p le if th ey are re p o rte d to h a v e
th e sam e IQ ?36
B y fo c u sin g o n p ro c esses, th e re v isio n ists argu e, th ey are w ork in g
rich e r v e in s th a n are th o se w h o se arc h fo r sta tic stru ctu re. W h a t really
c o u n ts a b o u t in te llig e n c e are th e w ays in w h ich p e o p le p ro c e ss th e in
fo rm a tio n th ey rec eiv e. W h a t p ro b le m -so lv in g m e c h a n ism s d o th e y e m
Introduction 17
p lo y ? H o w d o th ey trad e o ff sp e e d a n d accu racy ? H o w d o th ey c o m b in e

d ifferen t p ro b le m -so lv in g reso u rces in to a strategy ? S te rn b e rg h a s fa s h
io n e d h is ow n th in k in g o n th is to p ic in to w h at h e c a lls a triarch y o f
in te llig e n c e , or th ree asp e c ts o f h u m a n in fo rm a tio n p ro c e ssin g .37
T h e first p a rt o f S te rn b e r g s triarch y a tte m p ts to d e scrib e th e in te r
n a l a rc h ite c tu re o f in te lle c tu a l fu n c tio n in g , th e m e an s by w h ich h u
m an s tra n sla te sen so ry in p u ts in to m e n ta l re p re se n ta tio n s, a llo c a te
m e n ta l reso u rces, in fer c o n c lu sio n s from raw m ate rial, a n d a c q u ire skills.
T h is a rc h ite c tu ra l c o m p o n e n t o f S te rn b e r g s th eo ry b ears a fam ily r e
se m b la n c e to th e c la ssic ists v iew o f th e d im e n sio n s o f in te llig e n c e , b u t
it em p h asizes p ro c e ss o v er stru ctu re.
T h e se c o n d p a rt o f th e triarc h ic th eo ry ad d resses th e role o f in te lli
g e n c e in ro u tin izin g p erfo rm an c e, sta rtin g w ith c o m p le te ly n o v e l task s
th a t te st a p e rso n s in sig h tfu ln ess, flex ib ility , an d creativity , a n d e v e n
tu ally c o n v e rtin g th e m to ro u tin e task s th a t c a n b e d o n e w ith o u t c o n
sc io u s th o u g h t. U n d e rsta n d th is p ro c ess, S te rn b e rg argu es, a n d w e h a v e
le v e rag e n o t ju st for m easu rin g in te llig e n c e b u t for im p ro v in g it.
T h e th ird p a rt o f S te rn b e r g s triarch y a tta c k s th e q u e stio n th a t h as
b e e n c e n tra l to th e c o n tro v ersy o v e r in te llig e n c e tests: th e re la tio n sh ip
o f in te llig e n c e to th e re al w orld in w h ich p e o p le fu n c tio n . In S te r n b e r g s
view, p e o p le fu n c tio n by m e a n s o f th ree m e ch a n ism s: adaptation
(roughly, tryin g to m ak e th e b e st o f th e situ a tio n ), shaping th e e x te rn a l
e n v iro n m e n t so th a t it c o n fo rm s m ore clo se ly to th e d e sire d sta te o f a f
fairs, o r selecting a n ew e n v iro n m e n t alto g eth e r. S te rn b e rg la m e n ts th e
in a d e q u a c ie s o f tra d itio n a l in te llig e n c e te sts in c ap tu rin g th is real-w orld
a sp e c t o f in te llig e n c e a n d seek s to d e v e lo p te sts th a t w ill d o so an d ,
in a d d itio n , le ad to te c h n iq u e s for te a c h in g p e o p le to raise th e ir in te l
ligen ce.
T h e R a d ic a ls: T h e T h eory o f M ultiple Intelligences
W alter L ip p m a n n s h o stility to w ard in te llig e n c e te stin g w as g ro u n d e d

in h is b e lie f th a t th is m o st im p o rta n t o f a ll h u m a n q u alitie s w as to o d i
v erse, to o c o m p le x , to o c h a n g e a b le , to o d e p e n d e n t o n c u ltu ral c o n te x t,
an d , a b o v e all, to o su b je c tiv e to b e m easu red by an sw ers to a m ere list
o f te st q u e stio n s. In te llig e n c e se e m e d to h im , as it d o es to m an y o th e r
th o u g h tfu l p e o p le w h o are n o t th e m se lv e s e x p e rt in te stin g , m o re lik e
b ea u ty o r ju stic e th a n h e ig h t o r w eigh t. B efo re so m e th in g c a n b e m e a
sured, it m u st b e d efin e d , th is a rg u m e n t g o e s.38 A n d th e p ro b le m s o f d e fi
18 Introduction
n itio n for beauty, ju stic e , or in telligen ce are insuperable. T o p e o p le w ho

h o ld th ese view s, th e claim s of the in telligen ce testers seem n a iv e at
b e st an d viciou s a t w orst. T h ese view s, w hich are gen erally ad v a n c e d
p rim arily by n o n sp e c ia lists, h av e fou n d a n in fluen tial sp o k e sm an from
the academ y, w h ich is m ain ly why we in clude th em h ere. W e refer h ere
to th e theory o f m u ltip le in telligen ces form ulated by H ow ard G ard n e r,
a H arv a rd p sy ch o lo g ist.
G a rd n e rs g en eral d efin itio n o f in tellig en t b e h a v io r does n o t seem
rad ical a t all. F or G a rd n er, as for m an y oth er thinkers o n in te llig e n ce ,
the n o tio n of p ro b lem so lv in g is cen tral. A h u m an in te lle c tu al c o m
p e te n c e m ust e n ta il a se t of skills o f p ro b lem so lv in g , h e w rites, e n
a b lin g the in d ivid u al to resolve genuine problem or difficulties th a t he or
she en cou n ters and, w h en ap p rop riate, to create a n effective p ro d u ct
and also m ust e n ta il th e p o ten tial for finding or creating problems
th ereby laying th e groun dw ork for th e acq u isitio n o f new k n o w led g e. '4
G a rd n e rs view is rad ica l (a word h e uses h im self to d escribe h is th e
ory) in th at he rejects, virtually w ith o u t q u alification , the n o tio n o f a
g en eral in telligen ce factoT, w hich is to say th at h e d en ies g. In stead , h e
argues th e case for se v e n d istin ct in telligen ces: lin gu istic, m u sical,
lo g ic al-m ath e m atic al, sp atial, bod ily -k in esth etic, an d tw o form s o f "p e r
so n al in te llig e n c e , th e in trap erson al an d the in terperson al, e ac h based
on its ow n un ique c o m p u ta tio n al cap ac ity .1,0 G a rd n e r rejects th e c riti
cism th at h e h as m erely redefined th e word intelligence by b ro ad en in g it
to in clude w hat m ay m o re properly b e called talen ts: 1 p lace n o p a r
ticu lar prem ium o n th e w ord intelligence, b u t 1 do p la ce great im p o rtan ce
on th e e q u iv a le n ce o f v ario u s h u m an facu lties, h e w rites. If c ritics [of
his theory] w ere w illin g to label lan g u ag e a n d logical th in k in g as tale n ts
as w ell, and to rem o v e th ese from th e p edestal they currently occupy,
th e n I w ould be h ap p y to speak o f m u ltip le talen ts.41
G a r d n e r s ap p ro ac h is also rad ical in th at he d oes n o t d efen d h is th e
ory w ith q u a n tita tiv e d ata. H e draw s o n findings from an th ro p o lo g y to
zo ology in his n a rrativ e , but, in a field th at has b een in ten sely q u a n ti
ta tiv e sin ce its in ce p tio n , G ard n er's w ork is uniquely d evoid o f p sy c h o
m e tric o r o th e r q u a n tita tiv e ev id en c e. H e dism isses facto r an aly sis:
[G ]iv e n the sam e se t o f data, it is p ossib le, usin g on e set o f factor-
a n a ly tic procedures, to c o m e up w ith a picture th a t supports th e id ea o f
a g facto r; using a n o th e r equally v a lid m eth od o f statistica l an aly sis, it
is p o ssib le to su p p o rt th e n o tio n o f a fam ily o f relatively d iscrete m e n
tal a b ilitie s.1421 H e is u n tro u b led by th e fact th at tests o f the varying in
Introduction 19
tellig en ces in h is theory seem to b e in tercorrelated : I f e a r . . . th a t I c a n

n o t a c c e p t th ese co rrelatio n s at face v a lu e . N early all cu rrent te sts are
so d evised th a t they call p rin cip ally u p o n linguistic an d lo g ic al f a c i l
ity. . . . A cco rd in gly , in dividu als w ith th ese skills are likely to d o w ell
even in tests o f m u sical or sp atial ab ilities, w hile those who are n o t e s
p ecially fa c ile lin gu istically and lo gically are likely to be im p aled o n su c h
stan dardized te sts.45 A n d in general, h e in vites his readers to d isre g a rd
the th orn y co m p lex ities o f the c la ssic al an d revisio n ist a p p ro a c h e s:
W h en it c o m e s to th e in terp retatio n o f in telligen ce testin g, w e are
faced w ith a n issue o f taste or preferen ce rath er th an on e on w h ic h s c i
en tific clo su re is likely to be reach ed .44
T H E P E R S P E C T IV E O F T H IS B O O K
G iv e n th ese d ifferen t ways o f u n d erstan d in g in telligen ce, you w ill n a t

urally ask w h ere our sym path ies lie an d how they shape this b o o k .
W e will be draw ing m o st h eavily from the classical trad itio n . T h a t
body o f sch o larsh ip rep resen ts an im m en se and rigorously analyzed b o dy
o f k n o w led ge. By accep ted stan dards o f w hat con stitu tes sc ie n tific e v i
d en ce and scien tific proof, the c la ssic a l trad ition has in our view g iv e n
the w orld a treasure o f in form ation th a t h as been largely ign ored in try
ing to u n d erstan d con tem p orary p olicy issues. M oreover, b e c a u se ou r
top ic is th e relatio n sh ip o f h u m an ab ilities to public policy, w e w ill be
d ealin g in relatio n sh ip s th at are based on aggregated data, w h ic h is
w here the c la ssic al trad itio n has the m o st to offer. Perhaps an e x a m p le
will illu strate w h at we m ean.
S u p p o se th a t the q u e stio n at issue regards individuals: G iv e n tw o 11
year olds, o n e w ith an IQ o f 110 and on e w ith an IQ o f 90, w h a t c a n
you tell us ab o u t the differen ces b etw een those two ch ild ren ? T h e a n
swer m ust be p h rased very ten tatively. O n m any im portant to p ic s, the
answ er m u st be, W e c an tell you n o th in g w ith any c o n fid e n c e . It is
well w orth a gu id an ce c o u n se lo rs tim e to know w hat these in d iv id u a l
scores are, bu t on ly in c o m b in atio n w ith a variety of oth er in fo rm a tio n
ab ou t the c h ild s personality, talen ts, a n d background. T h e in d iv id u a ls
IQ score a ll by itself is a useful to o l b u t a lim ited one.
S u p p o se in stead th at th e q u estio n a t issue is: G iv e n two six th -g r a d e
classes, o n e for w h ich the av erage IQ is 110 and the oth er for w h ic h it
is 9 0 , w h at c an you tell us ab o u t the d ifferen ce betw een those tw o c la sse s
and th eir av e rag e p rosp ects for th e future? N o w there is a g re at d e a l to
20 Introduction
be sa id , a n d it c a n b e sa id w ith con sid erab le confidence' n o t a b o u t an y

o n e person in e ith e r c la ss b u t ab o u t average o u tco m e s th at are im p o r
ta n t to th e sc h o o l, e d u c a tio n a l p olicy in gen eral, and so ciety w rit large.
T h e d ata ac c u m u la te d u n d er th e classical trad itio n are ex trem ely rich
in th is regard, as w ill b e c o m e ev id en t in su bseq u en t ch ap ters.
If in stead we w ere m ore co n c ern ed w ith the d e v elo p m e n t o f c o g n i
tiv e p rocesses th a n w ith aggregate social and e c o n o m ic o u tc o m es, we
w ou ld co rresp o n d in g ly sp en d m ore time d iscu ssin g th e w ork o f the re
v isio n ists. T h a t we d o n o t reflects our focus, n ot a d ism issal o f th e ir w ork.
W ith regard to th e rad ica ls an d the theory o f m u ltiple in tellig e n c e s,
we sh are som e c o m m o n groun d. S o c ia lly sign ifican t in d iv id u al d iffer
e n c es in clu d e a w ide ran ge o f h u m an talen ts th a t d o n o t fit w ith in th e
c la ssic a l c o n c e p tio n o f in te llig e n c e . For certain sp h eres o f life, they m a t
ter profoundly. A n d e v e n beyon d in telligence an d talen ts, p e o p le vary
te m p eram en tally , in p erson ality , style, an d character. B u t we co n fess to
re serv atio n s a b o u t u sin g the w ord intelligence to d escribe su ch facto rs as
m u sical ab ilities, k in e sth e tic ab ilities, or p erson al skills. It is easy to u n
d e rstan d h o w in te llig e n c e (ord in arily u n d erstoo d ) is p art o f som e a s
p e cts o f e a c h o f th o se h u m an q u alities obviously, B a c h w as e n g ag in g
in in te llig e n t activ ity , an d so w as T ed W illiam s, and so is a g o o d used-
c a r sa le sm an b u t th e p art in tellig en ce plays in these ac tiv itie s is c a p
tured fairly w ell by in te llig e n c e as the classicists and re v isio n ists
c o n c e iv e o f it. In th e c a se o f m u sic and kin esth etics, talent is a w ord w ith
a d o m a in an d w eigh t o f its ow n , an d we are u n clear why we g ain a n y
th in g by d isc a rd in g it in fav o r o f an o th er word, intelligence, th a t h as h ad
a n o th e r d o m ain an d w eight. In th e case o f in trap erson al and in te rp e r
so n a l sk ills, c o n v e n tio n a l in telligen ce m ay play som e role, an d , to th e
e x te n t th at o th e r h u m a n q u alitie s m atter, words like sensitivity, charm ,
persuasiveness, insight th e list co u ld go o n and o n h av e ac c u m u late d
o v er th e c e n tu ries to d escrib e th em . We lose precision by u sin g th e w ord
intelligence to c o v e r th e m all. Sim ilarly, th e effect th a t an artist or an
ath le te or a sa le sm a n cre ate s is com plex, w ith so m e asp ec ts th at m ay be
d o m in a te d by sp e c ific e n d o w m en ts or cap acities, oth ers th at m ay be th e
p ro d u c t of learn ed te c h n iq u e , o th e rs th at may b e lin k ed to d esires an d
d riv es, and still o th e rs th at are ch aracteristic o f the k ind o f c o g n itiv e
ab ility d e n o te d by in te llig e n c e . W h y try to m ake intelligence d o triple or
q u ad ru p le duty?
W e agree e m p h a tic a lly w ith H ow ard G ardn er, h ow ever, th a t th e c o n
c e p t o f in te llig e n c e h a s ta k e n o n a m uch h igh er p la ce in the p a n th e o n
Introduction 21
o f h u m an v irtu es chan it deserves. O n e o f th e m ost in sid io u s but also

w idesp read errors regarding IQ , e sp e c ia lly am on g p eop le who h av e h igh
IQ s, is th e assu m p tio n th a t an o th er p e r so n s in telligen ce can b e inferred
from c a su a l in teraction s. M an y p eo p le con clu d e th at if they se e som e-
on e w ho is sen sitiv e, h um orous, an d talks fluently, the p erson m u st
surely h a v e an ab ove-average IQ .
T h is id e n tifica tio n o f IQ w ith a ttra c tiv e h u m an qu alities in gen eral
is u n fo rtu n ate and w rong. S tatistic ally , th ere is often a m o d est correla-
tion w ith su ch qu alities. B u t m o d est co rre latio n s are o f little use in siz
ing up o th e r in dividu als o n e by on e. F o r exam ple, a person c a n h av e a
terrific se n se o f hum or w ith ou t g iv in g you a clue abou t w here h e is
w ith in th irty p o in ts o n the IQ scale. O r a plum ber with a m easured IQ
o f 100 o n ly a n average IQ c a n k n o w a great deal about the fu n c
tio n in g o f p lu m b in g system s. H e m ay b e able to d iagn ose problem s, dis-
cuss them articu lately, m ake shrew d d e c isio n s abou t how to fix them ,
an d , w hile he is w orking, m ake som e p ith y rem arks abou t the p re sid en ts
recen t sp eech .
A t the sam e tim e, h igh in tellig en ce h a s earm arks th at correspon d to
a first a p p ro x im atio n to th e co m m o n ly u n d erstoo d m eaning o f smart. In
our e x p e rie n ce , p eop le do n o t use sm art to m ean (necessarily) th at a p er
son is p ru d en t o r know ledgeable but ra th e r to refer to q u alities o f m en
tal q u ic k n e ss an d co m p lexity th a t d o in fact show up in h igh test scores.
To retu rn to our exam p les: M an y w itty people do n ot h ave unusually
h igh test sco res, but so m eo n e w ho regularly tosses o ff im prom ptu c o m
p lex p u n s probably d oes (w h ich d oes n o t necessarily m ean th at such
puns are very funny, we h asten to a d d ). If the plum ber runs in to a p ro b
lem he h a s n ev er seen before and d ia g n o se s its source through in ferences
from w hat h e d oes know, h e probably h a s an IQ o f m ore th an 100 after
all. In th is, lan gu age ten d s to reflect re a l differences: In everyday la n
guage, p eo p le w ho are called very sm a rt tend to h ave high IQ s.
A ll o f th is is a n o th e r way of m ak in g a p oin t so im portant th a t we will
italicize it now and rep eat elsew here: M easures o f intelligence have reli
able statistical relationships with im portant social phenomena, but they are a
limited tool for deciding what to make o f an y given individual. R e p e a t it we
m ust, for o n e o f the p ro b lem s o f w ritin g ab ou t in telligen ce is h ow to re
m ind readers o ften en o u gh how little a n IQ score tells ab ou t w hether
the h u m an b ein g n ex t to you is so m e o n e w hom you will ad m ire or c h e r
ish. T h is th in g we know as IQ is im p o rta n t but n o t a synonym for h u
m an e x c e lle n c e .
22 Introduction
Idiot S avan ts and Other Anom alies
T o add one final co m p lica tio n , it is also known that som e people w ith low
m easured IQ occasio n ally en gage in highly developed, co m plex cogn itive
tasks. S o -called idiot sa v a n ts c a n (for exam ple) tell you on w hat day Easter
occurred in any o f th e p ast or future two thousand years.145' T h ere are also
m any less ex o tic exam p les. For exam ple, a study of successful track bettors
revealed th at som e o f th em w h o used extremely co m plicated b ettin g sys
tem s had below -average IQ s and that IQ was not correlated with su ccess.46
T h e trick in interpretin g su ch results is to keep separate two questions: (1)
If on e selects people w ho h a v e already dem onstrated an obsession and su c
cess w ith racetrack b ettin g system s, will one find a relationship w ith IQ
(th e topic o f the study in q u estio n )? versus (2 ) if on e selects a thousan d
peop le at random an d asks them to develop racetrack betting system s, will
there be a relation sh ip w ith IQ (in broad terms, the topic o f this b ook )?
H ow ard G a rd n e r h a s also co n v in c ed us th at the word intelligence c a r

ries w ith it u n d u e affe c t a n d p o litic al baggage. It is still a u sefu l w ord,
bu t we sh all su b seq u en tly em p lo y the m ore neutral term cognitive ability
as o fte n as p ossib le to refer to th e con cep t th at we h av e h ith e rto called
intelligence, ju st as we w ill use IQ as a generic synonym for intelligence test
score. S in c e cognitive ability is a n uneuphonious p h rase, we lap se often
so as to m ake th e te x t re a d a b le . B u t at least we h o p e th at it w ill h elp
you th in k o f intelligence as ju st a noun, n o t an acco lad e.
W e h av e said th a t w e w ill b e draw ing m ost h eav ily o n d a ta from the
c la ssic al trad itio n . T h a t im p lies th at we also ac c e p t c ertain c o n c lu sio n s
u n d ergirdin g th at tra d itio n . T o draw the stran ds o f our p e rsp e ctiv e to
geth er an d to se t th e sta g e for th e rest o f the book, let us set th e m dow n
e xp licitly. H ere are six c o n c lu sio n s regarding tests o f co g n itiv e ability,
d raw n from th e c la ssic a l trad itio n , th at are by now bey o n d sig n ifica n t
te c h n ic a l disp u te:
1. T h e re is su ch a th in g as a gen eral factor o f cogn itiv e ab ility o n w h ich

h u m a n b ein g s differ.
2. A ll stan d ard ized te sts o f ac ad e m ic aptitude or ach ie v e m e n t m easu re
th is g en era l fa c to r to so m e degree, but IQ tests expressly d e sig n e d for
th a t p u rp ose m easu re it m o st accurately.
3. I Q scores m atc h , to a first degree, w hatever it is th at p eo p le m ean
w h e n they use th e w ord intelligent or sm art in ordinary lan gu age.
Introduction 23
4. IQ scores are stab le, alth o u gh n o t p erfectly so, over m u ch o f a per-

s o n s life.
5. Properly ad m in istered IQ tests are n o t dem on strab ly biased ag ain st
so cial, e c o n o m ic , eth n ic, or racial groups.
6. C o g n itiv e ab ility is su b stan tially h e ritab le , apparently n o less th an
4 0 p e rc e n t an d no m ore th an 8 0 p ercen t.
A ll six p o in ts have an inverse w orth notin g. For exam p le, som e

p e o p le s sco res c h an g e a lot; cogn itiv e ab ility is n o t synonym ous w ith
test scores o r w ith a sin gle gen eral m en tal factor, and so on. W h e n we
say th at all are beyond sig n ifica n t te c h n ic a l d isp u te, we m ean , in
effect, th at if you gath ered th e top exp erts on testing and c o g
n itiv e ability, draw n from all p o in ts o f view, to argue over these
p o in ts, aw ay from telev isio n cam eras an d reporters, it would quickly
b eco m e a p p are n t th at a co n sen su s alread y exists on all o f th e points,
in som e c a se s am o u n tin g to n ear unan im ity. A n d alth ou gh dispute
w ould en su e ab o u t som e o f th e p o in ts, on e side the side repre
sen ted by th e way th e p o in ts are sta te d would h av e a clear pre
p o n d eran ce o f ev id en ce fav o rin g it, an d th ose o f another view poin t
would be forced to lean h eav ily on iso lated studies show ing an o m
alous results.
T h is d o es n o t m ean th at the exp erts sh ou ld leave the room with their
d ifferen ces resolved . A ll six p o in ts c an be accu rate as general rules and
still leav e roo m for d ifferen ces in the th eo retical and p ractical c o n clu
sio n s th at p eo p le o f d ifferen t v alu es an d perspectives draw from them
(an d from th e m ass o f m aterial ab ou t c o g n itiv e ability and testing n ot
in co rp o rated in the six p o in ts). R a d ic a ls in the G ard n er m old m ight still
b alk a t all th e atte n tio n bein g p aid to in telligen ce as the tests m easure
it. B u t th ese p oin ts, in th em selv es, are squarely in the m iddle o f the sc i
en tific road.
F lav in g said this, how ever, we are left w ith a dilem m a. T h e received
w isdom in th e m ed ia is roughly 180 d egrees opposite from each o f the
six p o in ts. T o p rove our case, takin g e a c h p oin t and am assing a full a c
c o u n t o f th e ev id en c e for an d again st, w ould lead us to write a book just
ab ou t th em . S u c h books h av e already b een w ritten. T h ere is n o p o in t
in our trying to d u p licate th em .147'
W e h a v e tak e n two steps to h elp you form your ow n ju d gm en ts w ith in
the lim its o f th is book. First, we d eal w ith sp ecific issues in volvin g the
six p o in ts a s th ey arise in th e n atural co u rse o f the d iscu ssion cultural
24 Introduction
b ias w h en d isc u ssin g d ifferen ces in sco res acro ss e th n ic g ro u p s, for e x

am p le. S e c o n d , we try to p ro v id e a le v e l o f d e ta il th a t w ill satisfy d if
fe re n t le v els o f te c h n ic a l cu rio sity th ro u gh th e use o f b o x e d m a te ria l
(y ou h a v e alread y c o m e acro ss so m e e x a m p le s), n o te s, an d ap p e n d ix e s.
B e c au se w e e x p e c t (a n d fe ar) th a t m an y read ers w ill go d ire ctly to c h a p
ters th a t e sp e c ially in terest th e m rath e r th a n read th e b o o k from c o v e r
to cover, we also in sert p e rio d ic rem in d ers a b o u t w h ere d isc u ssio n o f
c e rta in key to p ic s m ay b e fou n d.
PARTI
The Emergence of a
Cognitive Elite
T h e tw e n tie th cen tu ry d aw n ed o n a w orld se g re g ate d in to so c ia l c lasse s

d e fin e d in term s o f m oney, pow er, an d statu s. T h e a n c ie n t lin es o f sep-
a ra tio n b a sed o n h ered ita ry ran k w ere b e in g erased , re p la c ed by a m ore
c o m p lic a te d se t o f o v e rla p p in g lin es. S o c ia l sta n d in g still p la y e d a m a
jo r role, if less o fte n a c c o m p a n ie d by a sw ord or tiara, b u t so d id out-
a n d -o u t w ealth , e d u c a tio n a l c re d e n tia ls, an d , in creasin gly , ta le n t.
O u r th esis is th a t th e tw e n tie th c e n tu ry h a s c o n tin u e d th e tran sfo r
m a tio n , so th a t th e tw en ty-first w ill o p e n o n a w orld in w h ich c o g n i
tiv e ab ility is th e d e c isiv e d iv id in g force. T h e sh ift is m ore su b tle th a n
th e p rev io u s o n e b u t m o re m o m e n to u s. S o c ia l c la ss re m ain s th e v e h i
cle o f so c ia l life, b u t in te llig e n c e n o w p u lls th e train .
C o g n itiv e stra tific a tio n tak e s d ifferen t form s a t th e to p a n d th e b o t
to m o f th e sc ale o f in te llig e n c e . P art II w ill lo o k a t th e b o tto m . In P art
I, w e lo o k at th e to p . Its story lin e is th a t m o d e rn so c ie tie s id en tify th e
b rig h te st y o u th s w ith ev er in c re a sin g efficien c y an d th e n g u id e th e m
in to fairly narrow e d u c a tio n a l a n d o c c u p a tio n a l c h a n n e ls. T h e s e c h a n
n e ls are in creasin g ly lu cra tiv e a n d in flu e n tial, le a d in g to th e d e v e lo p
m e n t o f a d istin c t stratu m in th e so c ia l h ierarch y , w h ich w e h ere b y dub
th e C o g n itiv e E lite. T h e iso la tio n o f th e b rig h te st from th e re st o f s o c i
ety is alread y e x trem e; th e fo rces d riv in g it are grow in g stro n g e r rath e r
th a n w eaker. G o v e rn m e n ts c a n in flu en ce th ese fo rc e s b u t c a n n o t n e u
tralize th em .
T h is d o es n o t m e a n th a t a m em b er o f th e c o g n itiv e e lite n e v e r crosses
p a th s w ith a p e rso n w ith a low IQ , b u t th e e n c o u n te rs th a t m a tte r te n d
to b e lim ited . T h e m ore in tim a te or m ore en d u rin g th e h u m a n re la
tio n sh ip is, th e m ore likely it is to b e a m o n g p e o p le sim ilar in in te lle c
tu al lev el. T h a t th e b rig h te st are id en tified h a s its b e n e fits. T h a t th ey
b e c o m e so iso la te d an d in b red h a s its co sts. S o m e o f th e se c o sts are a l
read y v isib le in A m e r ic a n society, w h ile oth e rs lie o v e r th e h orizo n .
25
26 The Emergence of a Cognitive Elite
H u m a n so ciety h a s alw ays had som e m easure o f c o g n itiv e stra tific a

tio n . T h e b est h u n ters am o n g the B ush m en o f th e K alah ari te n d to score
ab o v e th e av erage o f th eir tribe o n m od em in tellig e n ce tests an d so,
d ou b tless, w ould h a v e th e c h ief m inisters in C h e o p s E g y p t.1 T h e M an -
d arin s w ho ran C h in a for centuries were ch o sen by e x a m in a tio n s th at
te ste d for u n d e rstan d in g of the C o n fu cian classics an d , in so d oin g,
scre e n ed for in te llig e n c e . T h e priests and m onks o f m e d ie v al E urope,
recru ited an d self-se lected for reasons correlated w ith co g n itiv e ability,
m u st h av e b een b rig h te r th an average.
T h is d iffe re n tia tio n by cogn itive ability did n o t c o ale sc e in to cogn i-
tiv e classes in p re m o d e m societies for various reasons. C le ric a l celib acy
w as on e. A n o th e r w as th a t the people who rose to the top on th e ir brains
w ere co -op ted by a risto c ra tic system s th at depleted th eir d e sc e n d a n ts
tale n t, m ain ly th ro u g h th e m echanism know n as p rim ogen itu re. B e
cau se p aren ts c o u ld n o t p ick the brightest of th eir progeny to in h erit
th e title an d lan d , aristo cracies fell victim to regression to th e m ean:
c h ild ren o f p aren ts w ith above-average IQ s tend to h av e low er IQ s th an
th eir paren ts, an d th eir children's IQ s are lower still. O v e r th e cou rse o f
a few g e n era tio n s, th e av erage intelligence in a n aristo cratic fam ily fell
tow ard th e p o p u la tio n average, h asten ed by m arriages th at m atc h ed
bride an d groo m by lin eage, n ot ability.
O n th e o th e r h an d , aristocratic societies were n ot as im p erm eable to
so c ia l m ob ility as th ey tried to be. T h ey allow ed at least som e av en u e s
for ab ility to rise tow ard the top, w hereupon the b rain s o f the n ew com er
w ere sw apped in m arriag e for fam ily con n ection s and titles. E n g lan d w as
n o tab ly sag a cio u s in th is regard, steadily infusing new tale n t in to the
aristo cracy by c re a tin g peerages for its m ost successful com m o n ers. T h e
trad itio n al o c c u p a tio n s for the younger sons o f B ritish p eers army,
navy, ch u rch , an d th e ad m in istration o f the em pire gav e th e ab lest
y ou n ger son s in th e aristocracy a good ch an ce to rise to the top and h elp
su stain th e system . In d eed , the success o f som e E n glish fam ilies in su s
ta in in g th eir d istin c tio n over several generation s was on e o f th e facto rs
th a t p ro m p ted F ra n c is G a lto n to hypothesize th a t in te llig e n ce w as in
h erited . B u t on ly a m in o rity o f aristocratic fam ilies m an aged th is trick.
It re m ain e d true e v e n in E nglan d that, after a few g en eratio n s, th e
h o ld e r o f an y g iv e n aris to cratic title was unlikely to be sm arter th a n a n y
o n e else. W h e n o n e o b serv er w rote of the aristocracy in Q u e e n V ic to
ria s day th a t all th e s o c ia l talk is stupid an d in sip id , h e was b e in g m ore
ac c u ra te th an Derhans h e realized.2
The Emergence of a Cognitive Elite 27
E v en in less rigidly stratified so cieties, stratificatio n by c o g n itiv e a b il

ity h as b een w eak and in co n sisten t u n til this century b ecau se th e n u m
ber o f very b righ t people w as so m uch greater th an the sp ecialized jo b s
for w h ich h igh in tellig en ce is in d isp en sab le. A true c o g n itiv e e lite r e
quires a te c h n o lo g ic a l society. T h is raises a d istin ctio n th a t is so im p o r
tant, and fo rg ettin g it can so easily lead to needless m isu n d e rstan d in g ,
th at it is w orth em phasizing: To say that m ost of the people in the cogn i'
tively demanding positions o f a society have a high IQ is not the sam e as sa y -
ing that m ost of the people with high IQ s are in such positions. It is p o ssib le
to h av e c o g n itiv e screen in g w ithout h a v in g cogn itiv e classes. M a t h e
m atic al n ecessity tells us th at a large m ajority of the sm art p e o p le in
C h e o p s Egypt, d yn astic C h in a , E lizab eth an England, an d T ed d y R o o
se v e lts A m e ric a were engaged in ordinary pursuits, m in glin g, w o rk in g ,
and liv in g w ith everyone else. M an y w ere housew ives. M o st o f th e re st
were farm ers, sm ith s, m illers, bakers, carp en ters, and sh o p k e e p e rs. S o
cial and e c o n o m ic stratificatio n was extrem e, but c o g n itiv e s t r a t ific a
tion was m inor.
S o it h a s b een from the b eg in n in g o f history in to th is century. T h e n ,
c o m p arativ ely rapidly, a new class stru cture em erged in w hich it b e c a m e
m uch m ore con sisten tly and un iversally advan tageo u s to be sm art. In
the n e x t fou r ch ap ters, we ex am in e th a t process and its m ean in g.
Chapter 1
Cognitive Class and Education,

1900-1990
In the course o f the twentieth century, A m erica opened the doors of its col-
leges wider than an y previous generation o f A m erican s, or other society in his
tory, could have imagined possible. This democratization o f higher education
has raised new barriers be tween people that may prove to be more divisive and
intractable than the old on es.
T he growth in the proportion o f people getting college degrees is the most
obvious result, with a fifteen-fold increase from 1900 to 1990. Even more
important, the students going to college were being selected ever more effi
ciently for their high IQ . The crucial decade w as the 1950s, when the per
centage o f top students who went to college rose by more than it had in the
preceding three d ecad es. By the beginning o f the 19 9 Os, about 8 0 percent of
all students m the top quartile o f ability continued to college after high school.
A m ong the high school graduates in the top few percentiles o f cognitive abil
ity, the chances o f going to college already exceeded 9 0 percent.
Perhaps the m ost important o f all the changes was the transformation of
A m ericas elite colleges. A s more bright youngsters went off to college, the col
leges themselves began to sort themselves out. Starting in the 1950s, a hand
ful o f institutions became m agneti for the very brightest o f each years new
class. In these schools, the cognitive level of the students rose fa r above the
rest o f the college population.
Taken together, these trends have stratified A m erica according to cognitive
ability.
A
perusal o f H a rv a rd s F resh m an R e g iste r for 1952 show s a class look-
ing very m u ch as H arv ard fresh m an classes h ad alw ays looked .
U n d e r th e p h o to g rap h s o f th e w ell-scrubbed , m ostly E ast C o a st, o v e r
w h elm in gly w hite an d C h r istia n y oun g m en were h om e ad d resses from

p laces lik e P h ila d e lp h ia s M a in L in e , the U p p e r E ast S id e o f N e w York,
an d B o sto n s B e a c o n H ill. A large proportion o f th e class c am e from a
h an d fu l o f A m e r ic a s m o st ex c lu siv e board in g sch ools; P h illips E x e te r
and P h illips A n d o v e r alo n e co n trib u ted alm o st 10 p ercen t o f th e fresh-
m en th a t year.
A n d yet for all its ap p are n t exclusivity, H arvard w as n o t so hard to
get in to in th e fall o f 1 952. A n a p p lic a n ts ch an ces o f bein g ad m itte d
were ab o u t two out o f th ree, a n d clo se to 9 0 p ercen t if h is fath e r h ad
g o n e to H a rv a rd .1 W ith th is m o d est level o f c o m p etitio n , it is n o t su r
prising to learn th at th e H a rv a rd stu d en t body w as n o t uniform ly b ril
lian t. In fact, th e m e a n S A T -V e rb a l score o f the in co m in g fresh m en class
w as on ly 583, w ell a b o v e th e n a tio n a l m ean but n o th in g to brag a b o u t.121
H arvard m en c am e from a ran g e o f ability th at cou ld be d u p lica te d in
the top h a lf o f m an y sta te u n iversities.
L e t us ad v an ce th e sc e n e to 1960. W ilbur J. Bender, H a rv a rd s d e an
o f ad m ission s, w as a b o u t to le av e his post and trying to sum up for th e
board o f overseers w h a t h a d h ap p en ed in the eigh t years o f his tenure.
T h e figu res, he w rote, rep ort the greatest ch an ge in H arv ard a d m is
sion s, an d thus in th e H arv a rd stu d en t body, in a sh ort tim e tw o c o l
lege g en eratio n s in ou r reco rd ed history.1 U n q u estio n ably , suddenly,
but for n o o b v io u s reaso n , H arv a rd had becom e a d ifferen t k ind o f p lace.
T h e p ro p o rtio n o f th e in c o m in g stu d en ts from N e w E n g lan d h ad
d rop p ed by a third. P u b lic sc h o o l grad uates now ou tn u m bered p riv ate
sc h o o l grad u ates. In ste a d o f re je c tin g a third of its ap p lic an ts, H arv a rd
w as rejectin g m ore th a n tw o -th ird s and the quality o f th o se ap p lic a n ts
h ad in creased as w ell, so th a t m any stu d en ts who w ould h av e b een a d
m itted in 1952 w ere n o t e v e n b o th erin g to apply in 1960.
T h e S A T sco res a t H arv a rd h ad skyrocketed. In the fall o f 1 9 6 0 , th e
av erage v erb al sc o re w as 6 7 8 an d the average m ath sco re was 6 9 5 , a n
in crease o f alm o st a h u n d re d p o in ts for e a c h test. T h e av erage H arv a rd
fresh m an in 1952 w ou ld h a v e p la ce d in th e bo ttom 10 p e rce n t o f the
in co m in g class by 1 9 6 0 . In e ig h t years, H arvard h ad b een tran sform ed
from a sc h o o l p rim arily for th e n o rth eastern so c io ec o n o m ic e lite in to a
sc h o o l p o p u la ted by th e b rig h te st o f the bright, draw n from all o v er th e
country.
T h e story o f h ig h e r e d u c a tio n in th e U n ite d S ta te s during the tw e n ti

eth cen tu ry is g e n e ra lly ta k e n to be on e o f the g reat A m e ric a n su ccess
Cognitive Class and Education, 1900-1990 31
stories, an d w ith goo d reason. T h e record w as n o t w ith ou t blem ish es,

b u t th e U n ite d S ta te s led the rest o f th e w orld in o p e n in g college to a
m ass p o p u la tio n o f young p eop le o f ability, regardless o f race, color,
creed, gender, an d fin an cial resources.
But this su c c e ss story also h as a p a rad o x ic ally shadow y side, for e d u
c a tio n is a p ow erful d ivid er an d classifier. E d u catio n affects incom e, an d
in co m e d iv id es. E d u catio n affects o c c u p atio n , and occu p atio n s divide.
E d u c atio n affects tastes and in terests, gram m ar and accen t, all o f w hich
d iv id e. W h e n access to h igh er e d u c atio n is restricted by class, race, or
religion , th ese d iv isio n s cut across c o g n itiv e levels. But sch ool is in it
self, m ore im m ed iately and directly th an an y o th er in stitu tion, th e p lace
w here p eo p le o f h igh c o g n itiv e ability e x c e l and people o f low c o g n i
tive ab ility fail. A s A m e ric a op en ed ac c e ss to higher ed u cation , it
op en ed up as w ell a rev o lu tio n in the w ay th at the A m erican p o p u la
tio n sorted itse lf and d iv id ed itself. T h re e successively m ore efficien t
so rtin g p rocesses were at work: the co lleg e p op u lation grew, it was re
cru ited by c o g n itiv e ability m ore efficiently, and then it was further
sorted a m o n g the colleges.
T H E C O L L E G E P O P U L A T IO N G R O W S
A so c ial an d e c o n o m ic gap sep arated h ig h sch ool graduates from c o l

lege g rad u ate s in 1900 as in 1990; th at m u ch is n o t new. But th e social
an d e c o n o m ic gap was n o t a c c o m p a n ied by m uch o f a cogn itiv e gap, b e
cau se th e v a st m ajority o f th e brigh test p eo p le in the U n ite d S ta te s h ad
n o t g o n e to c o lleg e. W e m ay m ake th at statem e n t despite the lack o f
IQ scores from 1900 for the sam e reaso n th at we c an m ake such sta te
m en ts ab o u t E lizab eth an E n glan d: It is true by m ath em atical necessity.
In 1900, on ly ab o u t 2 p ercen t o f 2 3 -year-olds go t college degrees. E v en
if all o f the 2 p ercen t w ho w ent to c o lleg e h ad IQ s o f 115 and ab ove
(an d they d id n o t), seven o u t o f eigh t o f the brightest 23-year-olds in
th e A m e ric a o f 1900 w ould h av e b een w ith o u t college degrees. T h is s it
u atio n b arely ch an g ed for the first two d e c ad e s o f the new century. T h e n ,
a t the clo se o f W orld W ar I, the role o f c o lle g e for A m e rican youths b e
g an a n e x p a n sio n th at w ould last u n til 1974, interrupted only by the
G re a t D ep ressio n and W orld W ar II.
T h e th ree lin es in th e figure show tren d s estab lish ed in 1 9 2 0 -1 9 2 9 ,
1 9 3 5 -1 9 4 0 , an d 1 9 5 4 -1 9 7 3 , th en ex trap o late d . T h e y are there to high-
In th e tw e n tie th c e n tu ry , th e p revalen ce o f th e c o lle g e

d eg ree go es fr o m o n e in fifty to a th ird o f the p o p u la tio n
N ew bachelor s d egrees a s a percen tage o f 23-year-olds
...1 9 5 4 - 7 3
Trendlines established in...
30% - ...1 9 3 5 - 4 0
...1 9 2 0 - 2 9
25% -
u /0 _ i----------1----------1---------- 1---------- 1---------- i--------- 1--------- 1----------1----------r ~

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
Sources: 1900-1959: U .S . Bureau o f the C en su s 1975, H 751-765. 1960-1992: DES, 1992,

Table 229.
lig h t the three featu res o f the figure worth notin g. First, the lon g p e r
sp ectiv e serves as a c o u n te rw e ig h t to the com m on b e lie f th at the c o l
lege p op u latio n e x p lo d e d su d d en ly after W orld W ar II. It certain ly
ex p lo d e d in th e sen se th a t th e n u m b er of college stu d en ts w e n t from a
w artim e trough to re c o rd h igh s, b u t this is because two ge n e ratio n s o f
co lleg e stud en ts w ere crow d ed o n to cam puses at on e tim e. In term s o f
trendlines, W orld W ar II an d its afterm ath was a blip, alb e it a large blip.
W h en this an o m a lo u s tu rm oil e n d e d in the m id-1950s, the p ro p o rtio n
o f p eo p le gettin g c o lle g e d eg rees w as no higher th an w ould h a v e b een
pred icted from the tre n d s e sta b lish e d in the 1920s or the last h a lf o f the
193 0 s (w hich are a c tu a lly a sin g le trend interrupted by the w orst years
o f the d epression ).
T h e secon d n o ta b le featu re o f th e figure is the large upw ard tilt in
th e tren d lm e from th e m id -1 9 5 0 s un til 1974. T h a t it b egan w h en it
d id the E isen h ow er years c o m e s as a surprise. T h e G I b ills im p act
h ad faded an d the p o stw a r b aby b o o m had not yet reach ed co lle g e age.
Presum ably postw ar p ro sp erity h a d som ething to d o w ith it, but the e x
p la n a tio n c an n o t b e sim p le . T h e slo p e rem ained steep in p erio ds as d if
feren t as E isen h ow ers la te 1 9 5 0 s, L B js m id-1960s, an d N i x o n s early
1970s.
A fte r 1 9 7 4 c am e a p ecu liar p lu n ge in co lleg e degrees th at lasted un-

til 1981 p e c u lia r because it occurred w h en the generosity o f sc h o lar
sh ips an d lo an s, from colleges, fo u n d atio n s, an d gov ern m en t alike, w as
a t its p eak . T h is period o f d e c lin in g g rad u ates w as th en follow ed by a
steep in crease from 1981 to 1990 also peculiar, in th at college was b e
c o m in g h ard er to afford for m id dle-class A m e ric an s during th ose years.
A s o f 1990, th e p ro p o rtio n o f stud en ts g e ttin g college degrees h ad m ore
th an m ade up for the losses during the 1 9 7 0 s an d h ad estab lish ed a new
record, w ith B .A .s and B .S .s bein g aw arded in such profusion th at they
am ou n ted to 3 0 p ercen t o f th e 23-year-old p opu lation .
M A K IN G G O O D O N T H E ID E A L O F O P P O R T U N IT Y
A t first g lan c e, we are tellin g a story o f in creasin g dem ocracy and in

term in glin g, n o t o f stratificatio n . O n ce u p o n a tim e, the college degree
w as th e p reserve o f a tiny m inority, now alm o st a third o f each new c o
h ort o f y ou th s earn s it. Surely, it w ould seem , this m ust m ean th at a
b ro ad er ran ge o f p eop le is goin g to c o lle g e in cluding people w ith a
broader, n o t narrow er, ran ge o f c o g n itiv e ability. N o t so. A t the sam e
tim e th a t m an y m ore young p eo p le were g o in g to college, they were also
bein g selected ever m ore efficien tly by c o g n itiv e ability.
A c o m p ila tio n o f th e stu d ies c o n d u c te d over the course o f the c e n
tury su ggests th at the cru cial d ecad e w as the 1950s. T h e n e x t figure
show s the d a ta for the stu d en ts in the to p q uartile (th e top 25 p ercen t)
in ability an d is based o n th e p ro p o rtio n o f stu dents entering college
(th o u g h n o t n ecessarily fin ish in g) in th e y ear follow ing gradu ation from
h igh sch o o l.
A g a in , th e lin es h igh lig h t trends se t in particular periods, here
1 9 2 5 -1 9 5 0 an d 1 9 5 0 -1 9 6 0 . From on e p erio d to the n ex t, the p rop or
tion o f b righ t stu d en ts g e ttin g to c o lle g e leaped to new h eigh ts. T h e re
are tw o q u alific a tio n s regard in g th is figure. First, it is based on h igh
sc h o o l graduates the only d ata a v a ila b le ov er this tim e period an d
th erefore d rastica lly u n d erstates th e m agn itu d e of the real ch an ge from
th e 1920s to th e 1960s an d thereafter, b ecau se so m any o f the top quar-
tile in ab ility n ev er m ade it through h ig h sch o o l early in the century
(see C h a p te r 6 ). It is im possible to be m ore precise w ith the av ailab le
d ata, b u t a reaso n ab le estim ate is th at as o f the m id -1920s, on ly ab ou t
15 p ercen t o f all o f the n a tio n s youth in th e top IQ qu artile were goin g
o n to c o lle g e .141 It is further th e case th a t alm o st all o f th ose m ovin g on
A t m id -c e n tu ry A m e ric a ab ru p tly becom es m o re e ffic ie n t in

g e ttin g the top stu d en ts to college
H igh school graduates in the top IQ

quartile who went directly to college
/
75% - /
70% -
...1950-60 /
r
/
6 5 % -:
Trendlines established in...
60% - j
. ...1 9 2 5 -5 0 . /
55% -
m
5 0 % -f------ T------ 1------ r----- 1------ ,------ 1------ T------1------ 1------ 1------ T------r
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980
Sources: Eagle 1988b; Taubm an and Wales 1972; authors analysis of the N ation al Lon gitu
dinal Survey o f Youth (N L S Y ). See below and the introduction to Part II.
to c o llege in the 19 2 0 s were g o in g to four-year colleges, and th is leads

to th e seco n d q u alificatio n to keep in m ind: By the 19 7 0 s an d 1980s,
su b sta n tia l n um bers o f those show n as con tin u in g to c o lleg e w ere g o in g
to a ju n io r college, w h ich are on average less d em an d in g th an four-year
co lleg es. In terp retin g all the av ailab le data, it ap p ears th a t the p ro p o r
tio n o f all A m e ric a n youth in th e top IQ q uartile w ho w ent d irectly to
four-year co lleges rose from roughly one youth in sev e n in 1925 to ab ou t
tw o o u t o f sev en in 1950 to m ore th an four out o f se v e n in th e early
19 60s, w here it h as rem ain ed, w ith perhaps a sh allow upw ard tren d , ever
sin c e .151
B u t it is n o t ju st th at the top quartile o f talen t h as b een m ore e ffi
cie n tly tap p ed for college. A t every level o f cog n itiv e ability, th e lin ks
b e tw een IQ an d th e probability o f going to college b ecam e tig h ter an d
m ore regular. T h e n e x t figure sum m arizes three stu d ies th a t p erm it us to
c a lc u la te th e p ro b ab ility o f going to college th ro u gh o u t th e ab ility ran ge
o v er th e last sev en ty years. O n ce again we are restricted to h igh sc h o o l
Cognitive Class and Education, 1 9 0 0 -1 9 9 0 35
B e tw e e n th e 1 9 2 0 s an d th e 1 9 6 0 s , college a tt e n d a n c e
b ec o m es m u c h m o re c lo se ly pegged to I Q
H igh sch ool graduates goin g directly to college

100%-
90%-
80%-
70%- Early 1960s

60% _
Q
50%- 9
o
40%-
<9 * o o
30%- o
20% -Op . a*
t
M id 19 2 0 s
10%- \>
0%
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
IQ Percentile
Source.- Taubm an and W ales 1972, Figures 3, 4; and authors analysis o f N L SY stu den ts w ho
graduated from high school in 1980-1982.
grad u ates for the 1925 d ata, w hich o v erstates the p ro b ab ility o f g o in g
to c o lleg e d u rin g th is period. E v en for th e fortu nate few w ho g o t a h ig h
sc h o o l d egree in 1925, h igh c o g n itiv e ab ility im proved th eir c h a n c e s o f
g e ttin g to c o lle g e but n ot by m u ch .161 T h e brigh test h igh sc h o o l g r a d
u ates h a d a lm o st a 60 p e rc en t c h an c e o f g o in g to college, w h ic h m e a n s
th at they h ad m ore th an a 4 0 p ercen t c h a n c e o f n ot goin g, d e sp ite h a v
in g g rad u ated from h igh sc h o o l an d b ein g very bright. T h e c h a n c e s o f
co lleg e for so m e o n e m erely in th e 8 0 th p ercen tile in ab ility w ere n o
g reater th a n c la ssm a tes w ho w ere at th e 5 0 th p e rce n tile , a n d o n ly
sligh tly g reater th a n classm ates in the b o tto m third o f the cla ss.
B etw een th e 1920s and th e 1960s, th e largest c h an g e in th e p r o b a
bility o f g o in g to co lleg e w as at th e top o f the co g n itiv e a b ility d is t r i
b u tio n . By 1 9 6 0 , a stu d en t w ho w as really sm art at or n e a r th e 1 0 0 th
p e rc en tile in IQ h ad a ch an c e o f g o in g to college o f n early 1 0 0 p e r
c e n t.171 F u rth erm ore, as the figure show s, go in g to c o lle g e h a d g o t t e n
m ore d e p e n d e n t o n in telligen ce at the b o tto m o f th e d istrib u tio n , t o o .8
A stu d en t a t th e 3 0 th p erc en tile h a d on ly ab ou t a 25 p e rc e n t c h a n c e o f
3 6 The Emergence of a Cognitive Elite
g o in g to c o lle g e lower th a n it had been for h igh sc h o o l grad u ate s in

th e 1920s. B u t a stu d e n t in th e 8 0th percentile h ad a 70 p e rc en t c h an c e
o f g o in g to c o lleg e, w ell ab o v e the proportion in the 1920s.
T h e lin e for th e early 1 9 8 0 s is based on stu dents w ho g rad u ated from
h ig h sc h o o l b etw een 1980 an d 1982. T h e d ata are tak e n from th e N a
tio n a l L o n g itu d in a l S u rv ey o f Youth (N L S Y ), w h ich will figure p ro m i
n en tly in th e c h ap te rs a h ead . Briefly, the N L S Y is a very large (o rig in ally
1 2 ,6 8 6 p erso n s), n atio n ally rep resen tative sam ple o f A m e ric a n you th s
w h o were aged 14 to 22 in 1979, w hen the study began , an d h a v e b een
follow ed ever sin ce. (T h e N L S Y is discussed m ore fully in th e in tro
d u ctio n to Part II.) T h e cu rv e is virtually id en tical to th at from th e early
1960s, w hich is in itself a fin d in g o f som e sign ifican ce in th e lig h t o f the
m any u p h eav als th a t occu rred in A m erican ed u catio n in the 1 9 6 0 s an d
1970s.
D id n t Equal O pportunity in Higher Education Really Open U p

D uring the 1960s?
T h e co n ven tion al wisdom holds that the revolution in higher ed u cation

occurred in the last h alf o f the 1960s, as part of the ch an ges o f th e G reat
Society, especially its affirm ative action policies. W e note here th at the
proportion o f youths going to college rose about as steeply in the 1950s as
in the 1960s, as sh ow n in th e opening figure in this ch apter and the a c
com pan yin g discussion. C h a p te r 19 considers the role played by affirm a
tive a c tio n in the ch an gin g college population o f recent decades.
M ean w h ile, th e so rtin g p rocess continu ed in college. C o lle g e w eeds

o u t m an y stu d en ts, d isp rop ortion ately the least able. T h e figure below
sh ow s th e situ a tio n as o f th e 1980s.9 T h e line for stu d en ts en te rin g c o l
lege rep rod u ces th e on e sh o w n in th e preceding figure. T h e lin e for s tu
d e n ts c o m p le tin g th e B .A . show s an even m ore efficien t so rtin g process.
A h ig h p ro p o rtio n o f p e o p le w ith poor test scores m ore th an 20 p e r
c e n t o f th o se in th e se c o n d d ecile (betw een the 10th and 2 0 th c e n tile ),
for e x a m p le en tered a tw o- or four-year college. B u t few er th a n 2 p e r
c e n t o f th em a c tu a lly c o m p le te d a b ach elors degree. M e an w h ile, ab o u t
7 0 p e rc e n t o f th e stu d e n ts in the top decile o f ab ility w ere c o m p le tin g
a B .A .
C o g n itiv e so rtin g c o n tin u e s fro m th e tim e th a t stu d e n ts

e n te r c o llege to th e tim e th e y g e t a d egree
P ercentage o f c o lleg e students /

90% -

80% -
/
70% -
/
f
/
60% - o
50% -
Students entering college ,
30% -
o
20% - o
o
\
Students completing the B.A .
10% - o
0% -^
T ' I--- 1-----1-----1
-----1-----1-----1---- 1
---- 1
------ 1
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
IQ Percentile
S o a v a riety o f forces h av e com b in ed to ensure th at a high propor-

tio n o f the n a t io n s m ost ab le youth s g o t in to the category o f college
grad u ates. B u t th e process o f d efin in g a co g n itiv e elite through ed u ca
tio n is n o t c o m p le te . T h e socially m ost sig n ifican t part o f the p arti
tio n in g rem ain s to be described. In th e 1950s, A m erican high er
e d u c a tio n u n d erw en t a rev o lu tio n in th e way th at sorted the college
p o p u la tio n itself.
T H E C R E A T IO N O F A C O G N IT IV E E L IT E W IT H IN T H E
C O LLEG E SY ST EM
T h e e x p e rie n c e o f H arvard w ith w h ich we b egan this d iscu ssion is a

p arab le for th e e x p erien ce o f the n a tio n s university system . Insofar as
m any m ore p eo p le now go to college, th e college degree h as b ecom e
m ore d e m o c ra tic d u rin g the tw en tieth century. B u t as it b ecam e d e m o
cratic, a new elite w as d ev elo p in g e v e n m ore rapidly w ith in the system .
From th e early 1950s in to the m id -1960s, th e n a tio n s university system
n o t o n ly b e c am e m ore e fficien t in b rin g in g th e brigh t youn gsters to c o l
lege, it b ec am e ra d ica lly m o re efficien t a t so rtin g the b rig h te st o f the

b rig h t in to a h an d fu l o f e lite colleges.
T h e C a se o f Ivy L eag u e a n d the State o f P ennsylvania: T h e 1 9 2 0 s

V ersus the 1 9 6 0 s
Prior to W orld W ar II, A m e ric a h ad a stratum o f e lite c o lle g e s ju st as it

h as now, w ith the Ivy L e a g u e b e in g th e best know n. T h e n as now , th ese
sc h o o ls attracted th e m o st ce le b rate d faculty, h ad th e b e st libraries, and
se n t th eir grad u ates o n to th e b est graduate sc h o o ls an d to p restigiou s
job s. O f these elite sc h o o ls, H arv a rd was am on g th e m o st fam ou s an d
th e m ost selective. B u t w h at w as true o f H arvard th e n w as tru e o f the
o th e r elite sch ools. T h e y all h ad a th in layer o f th e very b rig h te st am o n g
th eir stu d en ts but also m an y stu d en ts who were m erely brigh t an d a fair
n u m ber o f stu d en ts w h o w ere m ediocre. T h e y tap p ed on ly a frag m en t
o f th e c o g n itiv e ta le n t in th e country. T h e v a led ic to ria n in K a la m az o o
and th e K a n sa s farm g irl w ith a n IQ o f 140 m igh t n o t e v e n be g o in g to
c o llege a t all. If th ey d id , th ey probably w ent to th e n earest sta te u n i
versity or to a p riv ate c o lle g e affiliated w ith their ch u rch .
O n e o f th e rare w in d o w s o n th is period is p rovid ed by tw o little-
know n sources o f te st sc o re d ata. T h e first in volves th e e arlie st S A T s,
w h ich w ere first a d m in iste re d in 1926. A s p art o f th at effort, a s ta n
dardized in te llig e n c e test w as a lso com pleted by 1 ,0 8 0 o f the S A T su b
je c ts. In its first a n n u a l rep o rt, a C o m m issio n ap p oin ted by th e C o lle g e
E n tra n c e E x a m in a tio n B o ard p ro v id ed a table for c o n v e rtin g th e S A T
o f th a t era to I Q sc o re s.110' C o m b in in g th at in form ation w ith rep orts of
th e m ean S A T sco res for e n tra n ts to sch ools using the S A T , we are ab le
to ap p ro x im ate the m e a n IQ s o f th e entering stu d en ts to th e Ivy L e ag u e
an d th e S e v e n S iste rs, th e m o st prestigious sc h o o ls in th e cou n try at
th at tim e.1111
Ju d g in g from th is in fo rm a tio n , the entering classes o f th ese sch o o ls
in 1926 h ad a m e a n IQ o f a b o u t 117, w hich p laces th e av erag e stu d e n t
at th e m o st se le c tiv e sc h o o ls in th e country a t ab o u t the 8 8 th p e rc e n tile
o f all th e n a tio n s y o u th s a n d barely above the 115 level th at h a s o fte n
b e e n c o n sid ered th e b a sic d e m a rca tio n p oin t for p rim e c o lle g e m a te
rial.
In th e sam e y ear a s th e se S A T d ata were c o llected , the C a rn e g ie
F o u n d a tio n b e g a n a n a m b itio u s statew ide study o f h igh sc h o o l sen iors
a n d th eir c o lle g e e x p e r ie n c e in th e entire state o f P e n n sy lv a n ia .12 B y
h appy c o in c id e n c e , the in vestigators used th e sam e form o f th e O t is I n

te llig en c e T e st used by th e S A T C o m m issio n . A m o n g o th e r te sts, th e y
reported m ean s for the sop h om ore c la sse s a t all the c o lle g e s a n d u n i
versities in P e n n sy lv an ia in 1928. P e n n sy lv an ia was ( t h e n as n o w ) a
large state w ith a w ide variety o f p u b lic a n d p rivate s c h o o ls , s m a ll a n d
large, p restig io u s an d p edestrian . T h e IQ eq u iv alen t o f th e a v e r a g e o f
all P en n sy lv an ia co lleges was 107, w h ich p u t th e av erage P e n n s y lv a n ia
stu d en t at th e 6 8 th p ercen tile, c o n sid erab ly below th e a v e ra g e o f th e
e lite sch o o ls. B u t ten P en n sy lv an ia c o lle g e s had fresh m an c la s s e s w ith
m ean IQ s th a t put th em a t the 75th to 9 0 p ercen tile s.113' In o th e r w o rd s,
stu d en ts g o in g to an y o f sev eral P en n sy lv an ia colleges w ere, o n a v e r a g e ,
v irtu ally in d istin gu ish ab le in c o g n itiv e ab ility from th e stu d e n ts in th e
Ivy L eagu e a n d th e S e v e n Sisters.
N o w let us ju m p to 1964, th e first year for w hich S A T d a t a for a large
n u m ber o f P en n sy lv an ia co lleges are a v a ila b le . W e re p e at th e e x e r c ise ,
th is tim e u sin g the SA T -V erb al test as th e b asis for an a ly sis.1141 T w o im
p o rta n t c h a n g e s h ad occu rred sin ce 1 9 2 8 . T h e av erage fre sh m a n in a
P e n n sy lv an ia co lleg e in 1 9 6 4 w as m u ch sm arter th an th e a v e ra g e P e n n
sy lv an ia fresh m an in 1928 a t ab ou t th e 8 9 th p ercen tile. A t th e sa m e
tim e, h ow ever, th e elite colleges, u sin g th e sam e fo u rteen sc h o o ls r e p
resen ted in th e 1928 d ata, h ad m oved m u c h further ou t tow ard th e e d g e ,
now b o a stin g an av erage fresh m an w h o w as at the 9 9 th p e rc e n tile o f
th e n a tio n s youth .
C ognitive Stratification Throughout the C ollege System by the 1 9 6 0 s
T h e sam e p ro c ess occurred arou n d th e country, as th e figu re b e lo w

show s. W e p ic k e d out co lleg es w ith fre sh m an SA T -V erb al m e a n s t h a t
w ere se p a ra te d by roughly fifty-p oin t in te rv a ls as o f 1 9 6 1 .1151 T h e sp e-
cific sc h o o ls n am ed are rep resen tativ e o f those c lu ste rin g n e a r e a c h
break p oin t. A t th e b o tto m is a state c o lle g e in the se c o n d e c h e lo n o f a
state system (rep resen ted by G e o rg ia S o u th e rn ); then c o m e s a larg e s ta t e
u n iversity (N o r th C a ro lin a S ta te ) , th e n fiv e successively m o re s e le c t iv e
p riv ate sc h o o ls: V illan o v a, T ulan e, C o lb y , A m h erst, a n d H a rv a r d . W e
h av e p la ce d th e S A T scores ag a in st th e b ack d ro p o f th e o v e r a ll d is t r i
b u tio n o f S A T scores for the en tire p o p u la tio n o f h ig h sc h o o l s e n io r s
(n o t ju s t th o se w h o ordinarily take th e S A T ) , u sin g a s p e c ia l stu d y t h a t
th e C o lle g e B o ard c o n d u cted in th e fa ll o f 1960. T h e figu re p o in ts to
th e gen eral p h e n o m e n o n already n o te d for H arvard : B y 1 9 6 1 , a la r g e
C o g n itiv e stra tific a tio n in co lleg e s by 1 9 6 1
T he S A T D istribution for A ll High School Sen iors
Mean o f high school

seniors who d id not
go to college
200 300 400 500 600 700 800
SA T -V erbal Score
Source: Seibel 1962; C o lleg e Entrance Examination Board 1961.
g ap sep arated th e stu d e n t b o d ie s o f the elite sch o o ls from th o se o f the

p u b lic u n iversities. W ith in th e elite schools, an o th e r an d sig n ifica n t
le v e l o f stra tific a tio n h a d also developed.
A s th e story a b o u t H a rv a rd in dicated , the period o f th is stratifica tio n
seem s to h av e b e e n q u ite c o n c en trated , begin n in g in th e early 1 9 5 0 s.ilft|
It rem ain s to e x p la in why. W h a t led the n a tio n s m ost ab le c o lle g e age
y o u th (a n d th eir p a r e n ts) to b eg in decid in g so abruptly th a t S ta te U .
w as n o lo n g er g o o d e n o u g h an d th at they sh ou ld strike o u t for N e w
H a v e n or P a lo A lto in ste a d ?
If th e w ord dem ocracy sp rin g s to your tongue, n o te th a t d em o cracy
at le a st in th e e c o n o m ic se n se h ad little to do w ith it. T h e H arvard
fre sh m an cla ss o f 1 9 6 0 c o m p rise d fewer children from low -in com e farm
ilies, n o t m ore, th a n th e fre sh m an class in 1 9 5 2 .17 A n d n o w onder. H ar-
vard in 1 9 5 0 h ad b e e n c h e a p by tod ay s stan dards. In 1950, to ta l costs
for a year a t H a rv a rd w ere o n ly $ 8 ,8 0 0 in 1990 d ollars, p are n ts o f to-
d ay s c o lle g e stu d e n ts w ill b e sad d en ed to learn. By 1960, to ta l costs
th ere h ad rise n to $ 1 2 ,2 0 0 in 1990 dollars, a h efty 4 0 p e rce n t in crease.
A c c o r d in g to th e g u id e lin e s o f the tim es, th e av erage fam ily cou ld , if it
stretch ed , afford to spend 2 0 p ercen t o f its in c o m e to send a ch ild to

H arv a rd .118' S e e n in th at lig h t, the p ro p o rtio n o f fam ilies who could af-
ford H arv ard decreased sligh tly d uring th e 1 9 5 0 s.1191 S ch o larsh ip help in-
creased bu t n o t fast en ou gh to k eep p ace.
N o r had H arv a rd sudden ly decid ed to m ax im ize the test scores o f its
e n terin g cla ss. In a sm all irony o f h istory, the H arv ard faculty h ad d e
c id ed in 1 9 6 0 not to ad m it stu d en ts purely o n th e basis o f acad em ic p o
ten tial as m easu red by tests but to c o n sid er a b ro ad e r range o f h u m an
q u alities.20 D e a n B en d er ex p lain ed why, v o ic in g his fears th at H arvard
w ould b eco m e su ch an in tellectu al h o t-h o u se th a t the unfortunate a s
p ects o f a self-co n scio u s in te lle c tu alism w ould becom e d om in an t an d
the p recio u s, th e brittle and the n eu ro tic take ov er. H e asked a very
good q u e stio n in deed: In o th e r words, w ould b e in g part o f a super-elite
in a h igh p restig e in stitu tio n be g oo d for the h ealth y develop m en t o f
the ab lest 18- to 22-year-olds, or w ould it tend to be a w arping and n ar
row ing e x p e rie n c e ?21 In any case, H arv ard in 1 9 6 0 continued, as it had
in the past an d w ould in the future, to giv e w eig h t to such factors as the
a p p lic a n ts legacy (w as the fath er a H arvard alu m ?), his p oten tial as a
q u arterb ack or stroke for th e eigh t-m an sh ell, a n d oth er n on acad em ic
q u alities.22
T h e baby bo om had n o th in g to d o w ith the c h an g e . T h e leading edge
o f the baby b o o m er tidal w ave w as ju st b e g in n in g to reach the cam pus
by 1 9 6 0 .|2i|
S o w hat h ad h ap p en ed ? W ith th e a d v a n tag e o f thirty ad d ition al years
o f h in d sig h t, tw o trends stan d ou t m ore clearly th an they did in 1960.
First, th e 1950s were the years in w h ich te le v isio n cam e o f age and
lo n g-d istan ce trav el b ec am e co m m o n p lace. T h e ir effects on the a tt i
tudes tow ard c o llege c h o ices can on ly be e stim ate d , but they were surely
sig n ifican t. For stu d en ts c o m in g E ast from the M id w est and W est, the
grow th o f air trav el and th e in terstate h igh w ay system m ade travel to
sc h o o l faster for affluent fam ilies and c h e ap e r for less affluent ones.
O th e r effects m ay h av e reflected th e d e c re ase d p sych ic d istan ce of
B o sto n from p aren ts an d p rosp ectiv e stu d en ts liv in g in C h ic a g o or S a lt
L ake C ity, b ec au se o f the ways in w h ich the w orld h ad becom e e le c
tro n ically sm aller.
S e c o n d , th e 1950s saw th e early stag es o f a n in creased dem and th at
results n o t from p ro p o rtio n al ch an ges in w ealth b u t from an ex p an d in g
n u m ber o f afflu en t cu stom ers c o m p e tin g for scarce goods. Price in
c reases for a w ide variety o f elite g oo d s h av e o u tstrip p e d ch an ges in the
co n su m er p rice in d ex o r c h a n g e s in m ean in com e in recen t d ecad es,

so m etim es by orders o f m ag n itu d e . T h e cost of Fifth A v e n u e ap artm en ts,
seash o re property, V an G o g h p ain tin gs, and rare stam p s are all e x a m
ples. P rices have risen b ecau se d em an d has increased and su p ply c a n
n o t. In th e case o f e d u c a tio n , new universities are built, bu t n o t new
P rin c eto n s, H arvard s, Y ales, or Stan fo rd s. A n d th ou gh th e p ro p o rtio n
o f fam ilies w ith in co m es su ffic ie n t to pay for a H arvard e d u c a tio n did
n o t in crease sig n ifica n tly d u rin g th e 1950s, th e raw n u m b er did. U sin g
th e 2 0 -p e rc e n t-o f'fa m ily -in co m e n d e, the num ber o f fam ilies th at cou ld
afford H arvard in creased by 1 8 4 ,0 0 0 from 1950 to 1 960. U sin g a 10 p er
c e n t rule, th e n um ber in c re a se d by 55,000. O n ly a sm all p o rtio n o f th ese
new fam ilies h ad ch ild re n a p p ly in g to college, but th e n u m ber o f slots
in the fresh m en c lasses o f th e e lite sch ools w as also sm all. C o lle g e e n
ro llm en t in creased fro m 2.1 m illio n students in 1952 to 2 .6 m illio n by
1960, m ean in g a h a lf-m illio n m ore com petitors for av ailab le p la ce s. It
w ould n o t tak e m u ch o f a n in cre ase in the propensity to se e k e lite e d
u c atio n s to prod uce a su b sta n tia l in crease in the an n u al ap p lic a tio n s to
H arvard , Yale, an d th e o th e rs.1241
W e su sp ect also th at th e s o c ia l an d cultural forces u n le ash e d by W orld
W ar II played a cen tral role, b u t probin g them w ould take us far afield.
W h ate v e r th e c o m b in a tio n o f reason s, the basics o f th e situ a tio n were
straigh tforw ard : By th e early 1 9 6 0 s, the entire top e c h e lo n o f A m e ric a n
u n iv ersities had b een tran sfo rm e d . T h e screens filterin g th eir stu d e n ts
from th e m asses h ad n o t b e e n low ered but changed. In stead o f th e old
screen w o v en o f class, re lig io n , region, and old sc h o o l tie s th e new
screen w as c o g n itiv e ab ility, an d its m esh was already e x c e e d in g fine.
C h an ges Since the 1 9 6 0 s
T h e re h a v e been n o e q u iv a le n t se a ch an ges sin ce th e early 1 9 6 0 s, but

th e c o n c e n tra tio n of to p stu d e n ts a t elite schools h as in ten sified . A s of
th e early 1990s, H a rv a rd d id n o t get four ap p lican ts for e a c h o p e n in g ,
b u t clo se r to sev en , h ig h ly self-selected and better p repared th an ever.
C o m p e titio n for entry in to th e o th e r elite schools h as stiffen ed c o m p a
rably.
P h ilip C o o k a n d R o b e rt F ran k h av e draw n togeth er a w ide v ariety o f
d a ta d o c u m e n tin g th e in c r e a sin g c o n c en tratio n .25 T h e r e are, for e x a m
p le, th e W estin g h o u se S c ie n c e T a le n t S earc h fin alists. In th e 19 6 0 s, 47
p e r c e n t w en t to th e to p s e v e n co lleg es (as ranked in the B arron s list
th a t C o o k an d Fran k u sed ). In the 1980s, th at proportion had risen to

59 p ercen t, w ith 39 p ercen t g o in g to ju st th ree colleges (H arvard , M IT,
an d P rin c e to n ).1261 C o o k and Fran k also fou n d th at from 1979 to 1989,
th e p erc en tag e o f stu d en ts scorin g ov er 7 0 0 on the SA T -V erbal who
ch o se o n e o f th e m o st co m p etitiv e c o lle g e s increased from 32 to 43
1271
p ercen t.
T h e d eg ree o f p artitio n in g o ff o f th e top stu d en ts as o f the early 1990s
h as reached sta rtlin g p rop ortion s. C o n sid e r the list o f sch ools th at were
n am ed as th e n a tio n s top tw enty-five large universities and th e top
tw enty-five sm all co lleges in a w ell-know n 1990 ran k in g.1281 Together,
th ese fifty sc h o o ls ac c o u n te d for ju st 5 9 ,0 0 0 o u t o f approxim ately 1.2
m illion stu d e n ts w ho entered four-year in stitu tio n s in the fall o f 1990
fewer th a n o n e o u t o f tw enty o f the n a tio n s freshm en in four-year c o l
leges. B u t they took in tw elve ou t o f tw enty o f the stu dents w ho scored
in the 7 0 0 s o n th eir SA T -V erbal test. T h e y took in seven ou t o f tw enty
o f stu d en ts w h o scored in the 6 0 0 s.|2i;|
T h e c o n c e n tr a tio n is even, m ore e x tre m e th an that. Su pp ose we take
ju st the top te n sch ools, as ranked by the n u m b er o f their freshm en who
scored in the 7 0 0 s o n th e S A T -V e rb a l. N ow w e are talk in g ab ou t sch ools
th at en ro lled a to tal o f on ly 18,000 fresh m en , one out o f every sixty-
seven n atio n w id e. Ju st these ten sc h o o ls H arvard, Yale, Stan ford ,
U n iv e rsity o f P en n sy lv an ia, P rin ceto n , B row n, U n iversity o f C alifo rn ia
at Berkeley, C o rn e ll, D artm ou th , an d C o lu m b ia soaked up 31 percent
o f the n a tio n s stu d en ts w ho scored in the 7 0 0 s o n the SA T -V erbal. H ar
vard an d Y ale alo n e, en ro llin g just 2 ,9 0 0 freshm en roughly 1 out o f
every 4 0 0 fresh m en acco u n te d for 10 p erc e n t. In oth er words, scorin g
ab o v e 7 0 0 is forty tim es m ore co n c e n trate d in the freshm an classes at
Y ale an d H arv a rd th an in the n atio n al S A T p op u latio n at large and
th e n atio n al S A T p o p u la tio n is already a slice o ff the top o f the d istri
b u tio n .1'01
H O W H IG H A R E T H E P A R T IT IO N S ?
W e h av e sp o k e n o f c o gn itiv e p artitio n in g through ed u catio n , w hich

im plies se p arate bin s in to w hich the p o p u la tio n has been distributed.
B u t there h as alw ays been su b sta n tia l in tellectu al overlap across e d u ca
tio n al lev els, an d th at rem ain s true today. W e are trying to convey a s it
u atio n th at is as m uch an o n g o in g p rocess as an ou tcom e. But before
d o in g so , the tim e h as com e for the first o f a few essen tial bits o f sta tis
44 The Emergence o f a Cognitive Elite
tics: th e c o n c e p ts o f d istrib u tion and standard d e v iatio n . If you are

new to statistics, w e recom m en d th at you read th e m ore d e taile d
e x p la n a tio n in A p p e n d ix 1; you will enjoy the rest o f th e b o o k m ore
if you do.
A D igression : S tan d ard D eviations and Why They A re Im portant
V ery briefly, a d istrib u tio n is the pattern form ed by m any in d iv id u al

sco res. T h e fam ou s n o rm a l d istribution is a bell-sh ap ed cu rve, w ith
m o st p eo p le g e ttin g sco res in the m iddle range and a few at e a c h end,
or ta il, o f the d istrib u tio n . M ost m en tal tests are d esig n ed to p ro d u ce
n o rm al d istribution s.
A stan d ard d e v ia tio n is a com m on language for ex p ressin g scores.
W h y n o t ju st use th e raw scores (S A T points, IQ p o in ts, e tc .)? T h e re
are m any reaso n s, b u t o n e o f the sim plest is th at we n eed to c o m p are re
sults on m any d ifferen t tests. Supp ose you are told th at a h orse is s ix
te e n h a n d s ta ll a n d a sn a k e is quarter of a rod lon g. N o t m any p e o p le
c a n tell you from th a t in form ation how the h eigh t o f th e h orse c o m
p ares to the len gth o f th e snake. If instead people use in ch es for both ,
th ere is n o problem . T h e sam e is true for statistics. T h e stan d a rd d e v i
a tio n is ak in to th e in ch , a n all-purpose m easure th a t c a n be u sed for
any d istrib u tio n . S u p p o se we tell you th at Jo e h as a n A C T sco re o f 2 4
an d T o m h a s an S A T -V erb al of 720. A s in the case o f the sn ak e an d the
h orse, you n eed a lo t o f in form ation about those tw o tests before you
c an tell m uch from th o se tw o num bers. But if we tell you in stead th at
Jo e h a s an A C T score th a t is .7 stan dard d ev iatio n ab ove th e m e a n an d
T o m h a s a n S A T -V erb al th a t is 2.7 standard d ev iatio n s ab o v e th e m ean ,
you know a lot.
H o w b ig is a stan d a rd d ev iatio n ? For a test d istribu ted norm ally, a p er
so n w h ose score is o n e stan d a rd d eviatio n below the m ean is at th e 16th
p e rc en tile. A p erson w h o se score is a stan dard d e v iatio n above th e m ean
is at th e 8 4 th p e rc e n tile . T w o stan dard d eviatio n s from th e m e an m ark
the 2d an d 9 8 th p e rc e n tile s. T h ree stan dard d ev iatio n s from th e m ean
m ark s th e b o tto m a n d to p th o u san d th o f a d istribu tion . O r, in sh ort, as
a m easu re o f d ista n c e from the m ean, one stan d ard d e v ia tio n m ean s
b ig , tw o stan d ard d e v ia tio n s m eans very b ig, an d three stan d ard d e
v ia tio n s m ean s h u g e . S ta n d a rd d eviatio n is often ab b rev iated S D , a
c o n v e n tio n we w ill o fte n use in the rest o f the book.
U n d erstan din g H o w the Partitions H av e R isen
T h e figure b elow sum m arizes th e situ atio n as o f 1930, after three d ecad es
o f e x p an sio n in c o llege en ro llm en t but before the surging ch an ges o f the
d ec ad es to co m e. T h e area under eac h d istrib u tio n is com posed o f peo-
A m e r ic a n s w ith an d w ith o u t a co lleg e degree as o f 1 9 3 0
Three Populations o f 23-Y ear-O ld s in 1930
Everyone without
Areas are proportional a college degree
to the relative sizes o f
the populations
All college graduates
Mean o f graduates
from the Ivy League
& Seven Sisters (the
distribution is too
small to be visible)
- 3 - 2 - 1 0 1 2 3
IQ, in standard deviations from the mean
Sources; Brigham , 1932; Learned and W ood, 1938.
pie age 23 a n d is p ro p o rtio n al to its rep resen tatio n in the n ation al p o p

u la tio n o f su c h p eop le. T h e vertical lin es d en ote the m ean score for
eac h d istrib u tio n . A ro u n d them are draw n norm al distributions'
bell cu rves exp ressed in term s o f stan d a rd d ev iatio n s from the m ean .13"
It is easy to see from th e figure ab ove w hy cogn itiv e stratificatio n was
on ly a m in o r p art o f the so cial lan d scap e in 1930. A t any given level o f
c o g n itiv e ab ility, th e n um ber o f p eop le w ith o u t college degrees dw arfed
th e n u m ber w h o h ad them . C o lle g e g rad u ates and the n o n college p o p
u latio n did n o t d iffer m uch in IQ . A n d e v e n the graduates o f the top
u n iversities (a n estim ate based on the Ivy L eagu e d ata for 1928) h ad
IQ s w ell w ith in th e ordinary ran ge o f ability.
T h e c o m p a ra b le p ic tu re sixty years later, based o n our an aly sis o f the

N L S Y , is sh ow n in th e n e x t figure, again d ep icted as n o rm al d istrib u
tio n s .1'521N o te th a t th e ac tu a l distributions m ay d ev iate from p erfect nor
m ality, e sp e c ially o u t in th e tails.
A m e r ic a n s w ith an d w ith o u t a college d eg ree a s o f 1 9 9 0
T hree P opulations o f 23-Y ear-O lds in 1990
IQ , in stan dard deviations from the mean
T h e c o lle g e p o p u la tio n has grown a lot w hile its m ean IQ h as risen a

b it. M o st b rig h t p e o p le w ere n ot going to college in 1 9 3 0 (o r e a rlie r)
w aitin g o n th e b en c h , so to speak, until the g am e o p e n ed up to th em . By
1 990, the n o n c o lle g e p o p u latio n , drained o f m any brigh t youngsters,
h ad sh ifte d d ow nw ard in IQ . W h ile the college p o p u latio n grew, th e gap
b e tw een c o lle g e an d n o n c o lle g e p op u latio n s therefore also grew. T h e
larg est c h a n g e , h ow ev er, has b een the huge in crease in the in tellig en ce
o f th e av e rag e stu d e n t in the top dozen universities, up a stan d ard d e v i
a tio n an d a h a lf fro m w h ere the Ivies and the S e v e n S iste rs w ere in 1930.
O n e m ay see o th e r fe a tu re s in the figure evidently less su p p o rtiv e o f c o g
n itiv e p artitio n in g . O u r p ictu re suggests th at for every p erson w ith in the
ran k s o f c o lle g e g ra d u a te s, d iere is an o th er am o n g th o se w ith o u t a c o l
lege d e g re e w ho h a s ju st as h igh an IQ or at least alm o st. A n d as for the
g ra d u a te s o f th e d o zen to p sch ools,1331 w hile it is true th at th eir m ean IQ
is e x tre m e ly h igh (d e sig n a te d by the + 2 .7 S D s to w h ich the lin e p o in ts),
th ey are su c h a sm a ll p ro p o rtio n o f th e n a tio n s p o p u la tio n th a t th ey do
n o t e v e n register v isu ally o n this graph, and they to o are ap p are n tly o u t
n u m b ered by p e o p le w ith sim ilar IQ s who d o n o t grad u ate from those
colleges, or d o n o t graduate fro m c o lle g e a t all. Is th e re a n y th in g to b e

co n c ern ed ab o u t? H ow m uch p a rtitio n in g h as really o c c u rre d ?
Perhaps a few ex am p les w ill illustrate. T h in k o f y o u r tw e lv e c lo s e s t
friends or co llea g u es. For m ost read ers o f th is b o o k , a larg e m a jo r ity w ill
b e c o lleg e grad u ates. D oes it su rp rise you to le a rn th a t th e o d d s o f h a v
in g e v e n h alf o f th em be c o lle g e g rad u ate s are o n ly six in a th o u sa n d , if
p eop le were ran dom ly paired off?1341 M an y o f you w ill n o t th in k it o d d
th at h a lf or m ore o f the d ozen h a v e a d v a n c e d d eg rees. B u t th e o d d s
ag ain st fin d in g su c h a result am o n g a ran d o m ly c h o s e n g ro u p o f tw e lv e
A m e ric an s are actually m ore th a n a m illio n to o n e . A r e an y o f th e d o z e n
a grad u ate o f H arvard, S ta n fo rd , Y ale, P rin c eto n , C a l T e c h , M IT , D u k e ,
D artm ou th , C o rn e ll, C o lu m b ia , U n iv e rsity o f C h ic a g o , o r B ro w n ? T h e
c h an c e th at ev en one is a g rad u ate o f th o se tw elve sc h o o ls is o n e in a
th ou san d . T h e c h an c e of fin d in g tw o a m o n g th a t gro u p is o n e in fifty
th ou san d . T h e ch an c e o f fin d in g fou r or m ore is less th a n o n e in a b il
lion.
M o st readers o f this book this m ay b e said b e c a u se we k n o w a g re a t
d eal ab ou t th e sta tistic a l te n d e n c ie s o f p eo p le w ho read a b o o k lik e
th is are in p reposterously u n lik ely groups, an d th is re fle c ts th e d e g re e
o f p artitio n in g th at has alread y occurred .
In som e resp ects, the results o f th e e x erc ise to d ay are n o t so d iffe r e n t
from th e resu lts th at would h a v e b e e n o b ta in e d in fo rm e r years. S ix ty
years ag o as now, th e people w ho w ere m o st likely to read a b o o k o f th is
n ature w ould be skew ed tow ard th o se w h o h ad frie n d s w ith c o lle g e o r
Ivy L eagu e c o lle g e ed u catio n s an d ad v a n c e d d e g ree s. T h e d iffe re n c e s
b etw een 1 9 3 0 and 1990 are these:
First, on ly a sm all p o rtio n o f th e 1930 p o p u la tio n w as in a p o s itio n
to h av e the kind o f circle o f frien d s an d c o lle a g u e s th a t c h a ra c te riz e s
the readers o f th is book. W e will n o t try to e s tim a te th e p ro p o rtio n ,
w hich w ould in volve too m any assu m p tio n s, b u t you m ay g e t an id e a by
e x am in in g th e sm all area u n d er th e cu rv e for c o lle g e g ra d u a te s in th e
1930 figure, an d visualize so m e frac tio n o f th at a re a a s re p re se n tin g p e o
p le in 1930 w ho could c o n c e iv a b ly h av e h ad th e e d u c a tio n a l c irc le o f
friends and co lleag u es you h av e . T h e y c o n stitu te d th e th in n e s t c re a m
flo atin g on th e surface o f A m e ric a n so ciety in 1 9 3 0 . In 1 9 9 0 , th e y c o n
stitu ted a class.
S e c o n d , th e p eo p le who o b ta in e d su ch e d u c a tio n s c h a n g e d . S u p p o s e
th at it is 1 9 3 0 an d you are o n e of th e sm all n u m b e r o f p e o p le w h o se c ir
cle o f tw elve friends a n d co lle a g u e s included a sizable fra c tio n o f c o l

lege grad u ates. S u p p o se you are one o f the even tin ier n u m b er w hose
circle c am e prim arily from th e to p universities. Your circle, se le ctiv e and
u n c o m m o n as it is, n o n e th e le ss will have been sc atte re d ac ro ss a wide
ran ge o f in tellig en ce, w ith IQ s from 100 on up. G iv e n th e sam e e d u c a
tio n a l p rofile in o n e s circ le tod ay , it would con sist o f a se t o f p e o p le w ith
IQ s w h ere the b o tto m te n th is likely to be in th e v icin ity o f 120, and
the m e a n is likely to be in e x c e ss o f 130 people w hose c o g n itiv e ab il
ity p u ts th em ou t at th e e d g e o f the population a t large. W h a t m igh t
h av e b e e n a circle w ith e d u c a tio n or social class as its m o st sa lie n t fe a
ture in 1 9 3 0 h as b e c o m e a c irc le circum scribing a narrow ran ge o f high
IQ sco res today.
T h e sw ord cuts b o th w ays. A lth o u g h they are n o t likely to be am o n g
our read ers, the circles a t th e b o tto m o f the ed u catio n al scale com prise
low er an d narrow er ra n g e s o f IQ today than they did in 1930. W h en
m any youn gsters in th e to p 25 p ercen t of th e in telligen ce d istrib u tio n
who form erly w ould h a v e sto p p e d school in or im m ediately afte r high
sch o o l g o to college in ste a d , th e proportion o f h igh -sch ool-o n ly p erson s
w h ose in tellig en c e is in th e to p 25 percent o f the d istrib u tio n h a s to fall
correspon dingly. T h e o c c u p a tio n a l effect o f this ch an ge is th at bright
y ou n gsters w ho form erly w ou ld h av e becom e carpen ters or tru ck drivers
or p o sta l clerks go to c o lle g e in stead , thence to o c c u p atio n s h ig h e r on
the so c io e c o n o m ic ladder. T h o s e left on the lower rungs are th erefore
likely to b e low er an d m ore h om ogen eo u s in tellectually, L ik ew ise their
n e ig h b o rh o o d s, w hich g e t d ra in e d of th e bright an d n o lon ger poor, h av e
b e co m e m ore h o m o g e n e o u sly populated by a less brigh t, a n d ev en
poorer, residuum . In o th e r c h ap ters we focus on w h at is h a p p e n in g at
the b o tto m o f th e d istrib u tio n o f intelligence.
T h e p o in t o f the ex e rc ise in th in k in g about your dozen c lo se st frien d s
and c o lle a g u e s is to e n c o u ra g e you to d etach yourself m o m en tarily from
th e w ay th e world lo o k s to you from day to day a n d c o n te m p la te how
e x trao rd in a rily d ifferen t y o u r circle o f friends and a c q u a in ta n c e s is from
w h at w ou ld be th e n o rm in a p erfectly fluid society. T h is p rofo u n d iso
la tio n fro m oth er p arts o f th e I Q distribution probably d u lls ou r aw are
n ess o f h o w u n rep resen ta tiv e o u r circle actually is.
W ith th ese th o u g h ts in m in d , let us proceed to the te c h n ic a l an sw er
to th e q u e stio n , H ow m u ch p artitio n in g is there in A m e rica? It is d one
by e x p re ssin g the o v e rla p o f tw o distributions after they are e q u ate d for
size. T h e r e are variou s w ays to m easure overlap. In the fo llo w in g tab le
we use a m easure c alled m edian overlap, w h ich says w hat p ro p o rtio n o f

IQ scores in th e low er-scoring group m atch ed or ex ceed ed th e m e d ia n
score in the h igh er-scorin g group. For th e n ation ally re p r e se n ta tiv e
O v e rla p A c r o s s th e E d u c a tio n a l P a rtitio n s
G roups B eing Com pared Median O verlap

H igh sch ool graduates with college graduates 7%
High sch oo l graduates w ith Ph.D .s, M .D .s, or L L .B .s 1%
C ollege graduates with Ph.D .s, M .D .s, and L L .B s 21%
N L S Y sam p le, m ost o f w hom atten d ed college in the late 1 9 7 0 s a n d

th ro u gh the 1 9 8 0 s, the m ed ian overlap is as follow s: By this m e a su re ,
there is only ab o u t 7 p ercen t o v erlap b etw een people with on ly a h ig h
sch ool d ip lo m a an d p eop le w ith a B .A . or M A . A n d even this s m a ll d e
gree o f o v e rla p refers to all colleges. If you w ent to any o f the to p h u n
dred co lle g e s and u n iversities in the country, the m easure o f o v e r la p
w ould be a few p ercen tag e p oin ts. If you w ent to an elite sc h o o l, th e
o v erlap w ould ap p ro ach zero.
E v en am o n g c o lleg e grad uates, th e p artitio n s are h igh. O n ly 21 p e r
c e n t o f th ose w ith ju st a B .A . or a B .S . h ad scores as high as th e m e d ia n
for th ose w ith ad v an ced grad u ate d egrees. O n ce again, these d e g re e s o f
o v erlap are for grad u ates o f all colleges. T h e overlap betw een th e B .A .
from a state te a c h e rs college an d an M IT P h .D . can be no m ore th a n a
few p e rc e n tag e points.
W h at d ifferen ce does it m ake? T h e an sw er to th at q u estio n w ill u n
fold o v e r the cou rse o f the bo ok. M any o f th e answers in volve th e w ays
th at th e so c ia l fabric in the m id dle class and w orking class is a lte re d
w hen th e m o st talen ted ch ild ren o f th o se fam ilies are so e fficien tly e x
tracted to liv e in oth er w orlds. But for th e tim e being, we c a n b e g in by
th in k in g ab o u t th at thin layer o f stu d en ts o f the highest c o g n itiv e a b il
ity w ho are b ein g fun n eled through rarefied college e n v ir o n m e n ts,
w h en ce they go forth to acq uire ev en tu ally n o t just the good life b u t o f
ten an in flu en ce o n the life o f the n atio n . T h e y are com in g o f a g e in e n
v iro n m en ts th at are utterly atyp ical o f the n atio n as a w h o le . T h e
n a tio n a l p e rc e n tag e o f 18-year-olds w ith the ability to g et a sc o re o f 7 0 0
or ab o v e on th e S A T -V erb al test is in th e vicin ity o f on e in th re e h u n
dred. T h in k ab o u t the c o n seq u en c es w h en ab ou t h a lf o f th ese stu d e n ts
are g o in g to u n iv ersities in w h ich 17 p ercen t o f their c lassm ate s a lso h a d
S A T -V s in th e 7 0 0 s an d a n o th e r 4 8 p e rc en t h a d scores in th e 6 0 0 s.1351
It is d iffic u lt to ex ag g erate h ow differen t the elite co lleg e p o p u la tio n is
fro m th e p o p u la tio n at large first in its level o f in te lle c tu al tale n t, and
c o rre lativ e ly in its ou tloo k o n society, p o litics, eth ics, relig io n , an d all
th e o th e r d o m a in s in w hich in tellectu als, esp ecially in te llec tu als c o n
c e n tra te d in to co m m u n ities, ten d to d ev elo p th eir ow n c o n v e n tio n a l
w isdom s.
T h e new s a b o u t e d u c atio n is h earten in g a n d frig h ten in g , m ore or less
in e q u al m easu re. H earten in g , because the n a tio n is p ro v id in g a c o lleg e
e d u c a tio n for a h igh p ro p o rtio n o f those w ho c o u ld p rofit from it.
A m o n g th o se w h o grad uate from high sch o o l, ju st ab ou t all th e brigh t
you n gsters n o w get a crack a t a college e d u catio n . H e a rte n in g also b e
c au se our m o st elite co lleges h av e o p en ed th eir d oors w ide for y o u n g
ste rs o f o u tsta n d in g prom ise. B u t frigh ten in g too. W h e n p e o p le live in
e n c ap su late d w orlds, it b eco m es difficult for them , e v en w ith th e best
o f in ten tio n s, to grasp the realities o f w orlds w ith w h ich th ey h a v e lit
tle e x p erien ce b u t ov er w h ich they also h av e g reat in flu en ce, b o th p u b
lic an d p riv ate. M an y o f th o se p rom isin g u n d ergrad u ates are n e v e r g o in g
to live in a co m m u n ity w here they will be d isab u sed o f th eir m isp e r
c ep tion s, for after ed u c atio n com es an o th er so rtin g m ech a n ism , o c c u
p atio n s, an d m an y o f the h o les th at are still left in th e c o g n itiv e
p artitio n s b e g in to get sealed . W e now turn to th at story.
Chapter 2
Cognitive Partitioning by
Occupation
People in different jobs have different average IQ s. Law yers, for example,
have higher IQ s on the average than b u s drivers. Whether they m ust have
higher IQ s than bus drivers is a topic w e take up in detail in the next chapter.
H ere we start by noting simply that people from different ranges on the IQ
scale end up in different jo b s .
W hatever the reason for the link between IQ and occupation, it goes deep.
I f you w an t to guess an adult m ale's jo b status, the results of his childhood IQ
test help you a s much as knowing how m any years he went to school.
IQ becom es more im portant as the jo b gets intellectually tougher. To be
able to dig a ditch, you need a strong b ack but not necessarily a high IQ score.
To be a m aster carpenter, you need som e higher degree o f intelligence along
with skill with your h an ds. To be a first-rate lawyer, you had better come from
the upper end o f the cognitive ability distribution. The same may be said o f a
handful o f other occupations, such as accountants, engineers and architects,
college teachers, dentists and physicians, mathematicians, and scientists. The
m ean I Q o f people entering those fields is in the neighborhood o f 120. In 1900,
only one out o f twenty people in the top 10 percent in intelligence were in any
o f these occupations, a figure that did not change much through 1940. But
after 19 4 0 , m ore and more people with high IQ s flowed into those jobs, and
by 19 9 0 the sam e handful of occupations employed about 25 percent o f all
the people in the top tenth of intelligence.
D uring the sam e period, IQ becam e more important for business execu
tives. In 1 9 0 0 , the C E O o f a large com pany was likely to be a W A SP bom
into affluence. He m ay have been bright, but that was not mainly how he was
chosen. M uch w as still the sam e as late as 1950. The next three decades saw
a great social leveling, as the executive suites filled with bright people who could
m axim ize corporate profits, and never mind if they came from the wrong side
o f the tracks or worshipped a t a temple instead o f a church. M eanw hile, the

college degree became a requirem ent for many biisiness positions, arid gradu
ate education went fro m a rarity to a commonplace am ong senior executives.
W hen one combines the people known to be in high-lQ professions with
estimates o f the num bers o f business executives who are draw n from the top
tenth in cognitive ability, the results do not leave much room for m aneuver.
The specific proportions are open to argument, but the m ain point seems be
yond dispute: Even as recently as midcentury, A m erica ivas still a society in
which m ost bright people were scattered throughout the wide range o f jobs. A s
the century draws to a close, a very high proportion o f that sam e group is now
concentrated within a few occupations that are highly screened for IQ .
o b s so rt p eo p le by th e ir IQ s, ju st as college does. B u t th ere is a differ
J e n c e b etw een e d u c a tio n a l an d occu p atio n al sortin g. P eo p le spend

on ly o n e to two d e c a d e s in sc h o o l. S c h o o l m ay seem like fo rev er w hen
we are th ere, b u t we sp e n d m o st o f our lives w ith th e so rtin g th a t c e n
ters o n w ork an d c arrie s o v e r in to circles o f friends an d co lle a g u e s, an d
in to co m m u n itie s if n o t p h y sically the sam e w ork places, c o m m u n i
ties, a n d friends th ro u g h o u t th e life sp an , th en gen erically sim ilar ones.
In th is chapter, we c o n tin u e o u r discussion o f the c o n to u rs o f th e in te l
le c tu a l lan d scap e. A n e x a m in a tio n o f o c c u p atio n al so rtin g w ill carry us
th ro u gh to the en d o f P a rt I.
JO B S A N D I N T E L L I G E N C E
N o o n e d ecreed th a t o c c u p a tio n s should sort us o u t by our c o g n itiv e

ab ilitie s, and n o o n e e n fo rc e s th e process. It goes o n b e n e a th th e su r
face, gu id ed by its o w n in v isib le h an d. T esters ob serve th at jo b statu s
an d in tellig en c e test sc o re s h a v e gone together sin ce th ere w ere in
te llig e n c e tests to g iv e .1 A s te sts evo lv ed and as th e m e asu re m e n t o f
sta tu s w as form alized , stu d y in g th e relation betw een th e jo b s an d in
te llig e n c e b ecam e a c o tta g e industry for social sc ie n tists. By now , the
r e la tio n h a s b een c o n firm e d m any tim es, in m an y co u n tries, an d in
m an y a p p ro a c h e s to th e d a ta .2
T h is is n o t to say th a t th e ex p erts find n o th in g to q u arrel ab o u t. T h e
te c h n ic a l literatu re is re p le te w ith disagreem ent. A sid e from th e purely
te c h n ic a l b o n e s o f c o n te n tio n , th e experts argue ab o u t w h eth er th e IQ -
jo b sta tu s c o n n e c tio n is a by-prod uct o f a m ore fu n d am e n tal lin k b e
Cognitive Partitioning by Occupation 53
tw een e d u c a tio n a l level and jo b status. F or ex am p le, it takes a law d e -

gree to be a law yer, and it tak es in te llig e n c e to get in to an d throu gh la w
sch o o l, but asid e from th at, is th ere any g oo d reason why lawyers n e e d
to h av e h ig h e r IQ s on av erage th an , say, bus drivers? A t the h e ig h t o f
e g alita ria n ism in th e 1970s, th e receiv ed w isdom in m any acad em ic c i r
cles w as n o , w ith C h risto p h e r Je n c k ss Inequality the ac c e p te d t e x t .3
A related arg u m en t, stated forcefully by Jam e s Fallow s, arises o v e r
w h eth er an IQ sco re is a c red en tial for c e rta in jobs, like a u n ion c ard fo r
a m u sician , o r w h eth er th ere is a n ecessary lin k betw een jo b sta tu s a n d
in tellig en c e, like a good ear.4 By th e tim e we get to the end o f P a rt I,
our an sw ers to su c h q u estio n s sh ou ld b e clear. H ere we review a few o f
th e m ore illu m in a tin g fin din gs, to push the discu ssion beyond th e f a c t
th at o c c u p a tio n a l status is co rrelated w ith IQ .
O n e n o ta b le fin d in g is th a t the c o rrelatio n betw een IQ and jo b sta -
tus is ju st a b o u t as h igh if th e IQ te st is g iv e n in ch ild h ood , d ecad es b e -
fore p eo p le e n te r the jo b m arket, as it is am o n g young adults w ho a r e
tak in g a n in te llig e n c e test after years o f ed u catio n . For exam ple, in a
sm all bu t e le g a n t lo n g itu d in al study o f ch ild h o o d in telligence an d a d u lt
o u tco m es, th e b o ys an d girls in th e sam p le were given IQ tests in c h ild -
h oo d an d th e n th eir jo b statuses an d levels o f sch oolin g were m e a su re d
o n stan d a rd sc a le s after they were at le a st 26 years old .5 T h e IQ sc o r e s
they g o t w h en they w ere 7 o r 8 years o ld w ere ab ou t as correlated w ith
the statu s le v e l o f th eir ad u lt job s as th eir ad u lt IQ s would h av e b e e n .161
In asm u ch a s c h ild h o o d IQ is m ore co rrelated w ith status th an c o m
p leted e d u c a tio n , as it is in som e stu d ies, th e thesis th at IQ scores re ally
ju st m easu re e d u c a tio n a l level is w eak en ed.
Fam ily m em b ers typically resem ble e a c h oth er in their o c c u p a tio n a l
statu s.171 W e are talk in g here n o t ab o u t a so n or a n iece or a b ro th er-in -
law g o in g in to th e fam ily b usin ess but ab o u t job status, how ever m e a
sured. O n ra tin g scales th at categorize jo b s from th ose w ith th e h ig h e st
statu s to th o se w ith th e low est, fam ily m em bers tend to land a t sim ila r
levels. T h e r e are m any ex c e p tio n s; we a ll h ear occasion ally ab o u t f a m
ilies w ith se v e ra l m em bers w ho are d o c to rs and law yers plus a n o th e r
w ho is a b lu e -c o lla r worker, o r v ice versa. B u t such stories call a tt e n tio n
to th em se lv e s b ecau se they describe rarities. M ostly, relativ es o c c u p y
n eig h b o rin g , if n o t th e sam e, rungs o n the jo b statu s ladder, a n d th e
clo ser the re latio n sh ip is, th e n earer th ey are. S u c h c o m m o n p lace f i n d
ings h av e m an y p o ssib le e x p la n a tio n s, bu t a n obvious on e th at is n o t
m en tio n ed o r tested o ften by so c ial sc ie n tists is th at sin ce in te llig e n c e
runs in fam ilies a n d in te llig e n c e p red icts status, statu s m ust run in fam
ilies. In fac t, th is e x p la n a tio n som eh ow m an ages to be b o th o b v io u s and
c o n tro v e rsia l.8
O n e useful stu d y o f fam ily resem b lan ce in statu s c o m e s from D e n
m ark a n d is b a se d o n se v e ra l h u n d red m en an d w om en ad o p te d in or
aro u n d C o p e n h a g e n b e tw e e n 1 9 2 4 a n d 1947.9 Fou r o u t o f five o f th ese
ad o p te d p e o p le h ad b e e n p la c e d w ith their ad o p tin g fam ilies in th eir
first year o f life; th e a v e ra g e ag e o f p lacem en t ov erall was 3 m o n th s. T o
all in te n ts a n d p u rp o ses, th e n , the ad o p tees sh ared little c o m m o n e n
v iro n m e n t w ith th eir b io lo g ic a l sib lin gs, but they sh ared a h o m e e n v i
ro n m e n t w ith th eir a d o p tiv e sib lin gs. In adulth ood, they w ere co m p ared
w ith b o th th eir b io lo g ic a l sib lin g s an d their ad o p tiv e sib lin gs, th e idea
bein g to see w h eth er c o m m o n gen es o r com m o n h o m e life d eterm in ed
w here th ey lan d ed o n th e o c c u p a tio n a l ladder. T h e b io lo g ic ally relate d
sib lin g s resem b led e a c h o th e r in jo b status, ev en th ou gh th ey grew up
in d ifferen t h o m es. A n d a m o n g th em , the full sib lin gs h ad m ore sim i
lar jo b sta tu s th a n th e h a l f sib lin gs. M ean w h ile, ad o p tiv e sib lin g s were
not sig n ific a n tly c o rre la te d w ith eac h oth er in job statu s.1101
T H E G R O W T H O F H IG H -IQ P R O F E S S IO N S
T h e ab o v e c o m m e n ts ap p ly to all sorts o f o ccu p atio n s, from low statu s

to h igh . B u t th e re la tio n sh ip o f IQ to o ccu p atio n s c h an g e s as th e jo b
b e co m es m ore c o g n itiv e ly d e m a n d in g . A lm o st any one c a n b e c o m e a
d itch d igger (if h e h a s a stro n g en o u gh b ack ); m any c an b e c o m e c a b i
n etm ak ers ( if they h a v e g o o d en o u gh sm all-m otor sk ills), but on ly p e o
ple from a fairly narrow ra n g e o f c o gn itiv e ability c a n b ecom e law yers.
If law yering pays m o re th a n cab in e tm ak in g , w h at h ap p e n s as th e n u m
ber o f law yerin g jo b s in c re a se s, a s it h a s in A m erica? M o re p eo p le w ith
h igh IQ s are d iv erted to law yering, w h ich m eans th at they are n o t g o
ing to b e c o m e c a b in e tm a k e rs o r d itc h diggers.
N o w im ag in e th a t p ro c e ss w rit large, an d consider w h at h a s h ap p en ed
w ith in th e h an d fu l o f o c c u p a tio n s th at are m ost highly screen ed for IQ .
W e w ill c o n c e n tr a te h e re o n a dozen su ch occu p atio n s, w h ich we will
refer to as h ig h -IQ p ro fe ssio n s. S o m e o f them h av e e x isted as lo n g as
IQ tests an d are in clu d ed in th e list o f occu p atio n s for th e 1 9 0 0 cen su s:
a c c o u n ta n ts, arc h ite c ts, c h e m ists, c o lle g e teachers, d e n tists, en gin eers,
law yers, a n d p h y sic ian s. O th e r s h a v e em erged m ore recen tly or are re
lab eled in m o re rec en t o c c u p a tio n a l breakdo w n s: c o m p u te r s c ie n tis t s ,

m a th e m a tic ia n s, n atu ral sc ien tists, an d so c ia l scien tists.
T h e m e a n IQ o f p eo p le e n terin g th o se fields is ab ou t 1 2 0 , g iv e o r ta k e
a few p o in ts .11 T h e state o f k n o w led ge is n o t perfect, a n d th e s o r t in g
p ro cess is n o t p recise. D ifferen t stu d ies fin d slightly d iffe re n t m e a n s fo r
th ese o c c u p a tio n s, w ith so m e su g g e stin g th at p h y sician s h a v e a m e a n
clo ser to 1 2 5 , for e x a m p le .12 T h e o r e tic a l p h ysicists p ro b a b ly a v e r a g e
h igh er th an n atu ral sc ie n tists in g e n e ra l. W ith in e a c h p r o fe s s io n , th e
ran ge o f sc o re s m ay be large. E v en a n o c c u p a tio n w ith a h ig h m e a n m a y
in clu d e in d iv id u a ls w ith m od est scores; it w ill certain ly in c lu d e a siz a b le
p ro p o rtio n below its m ean 50 p e rc e n t o f th em , if th e d is tr ib u tio n is
sy m m etrical a b o v e and below its m e a n .|1J!
N o n e th e le ss, 120 is a go o d ballp ark figure for e stim a tin g th e m e a n
p erso n in th ese h ig h -IQ profession s, a n d it also h as th e a d v a n ta g e o f
m arkin g th e c u to ff p oin t for ap p ro x im ately th e top te n th o f th e e n tir e
p o p u la tio n in I Q .H A rm ed w ith th is in fo rm atio n plus a few c o n je c tu r e s ,
we m ay ex p lo re h ow c o g n itiv e stra tific a tio n at the top o f th e A m e r ic a n
labor m ark et h a s ch an ged ov er th e years. T h e figure b e lo w sh o w s th e
answ er for th e tw en tieth century to d a te .
O n c e a g a in , th e p o rtra it o f A m e r ic a n society d e p e n d s o n v a n t a g e
p o in t. L et us b eg in w ith the b o tto m lin e, show ing the p e r c e n ta g e o f th e
en tire lab o r force th at is e n gaged in h ig h - IQ professions. T h e r e h a s b e e n
a p ro p o rtio n a l in crease d u rin g th e tw en tieth century, b u t th e se p e o p le
still c o n stitu te d on ly ab o u t on e o u t o f fifteen A m e r ic a n s in th e la b o r
force as o f 1990.
N o w c o n sid e r A m e ric a n s in th e to p 10 p ercen t (th e to p d e c ile , in
oth er w ord s) in c o g n itiv e ab ility ev ery o n e over the a g e o f 2 5 , in c lu d
ing h o u sew iv es, th e retired, and o th e rs w ho are n o t c o u n te d a s b e in g
part o f the lab o r force. T h e se p eo p le a re represented b y th e m id d le lin e
in th e grap h . In 1900, th e n u m ber o f jo b s in the h ig h - IQ p r o fe ssio n s
so ak ed up on ly ab o u t o n e o u t o f tw en ty o f th ese ta le n te d p e o p le . B y
1990, they so a k e d up alm o st five tim es as many, or o n e o u t o f four.
Fin ally, c o n sid e r th e top lin e in th e g rap h , w h ich is lim ite d t o A m e r
icans w ho are in bo th the to p d ecile o f I Q an d the la b o r fo rc e . In 1 9 0 0 ,
ab o u t on e o u t o f elev en was in o n e o f th e h igh -IQ p ro fe ssio n s; by 1 9 9 0 ,
m ore th an o n e o u t o f three. T h is still le a v e s alm o st tw o o u t o f th re e o f
th em u n a c c o u n te d for, b u t we w ill g e t to th em in th e n e x t s e c t io n o f
the ch ap ter.
T h e top I Q d e c ile b e c o m e s rap idly m ore c o n c e n tra te d

in h ig h - IQ p ro fe ssio n s from 1 9 4 0 o n w ard
P eople in the high-IQ occupations, expressed as a percentage of..

40% -
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
Source: U .S . Bureau o f the C en su s 1975, Table D 233-682; SAVS 1981, Table 675; U .S . D e
partm ent of Labor, 1991, T ab le 22.
N ote: Included are accou n tan ts, architects, chemists, college teachers, com puter scientists,
dentists, engineers, lawyers, m ath em aticians, natural scientists, physicians, and social scien
tists. A ssum es 50 percent of persons in these professions have IQ s o f 120 or higher.
T h e sp e c ific p ro p o rtio n s sh o u ld be taken w ith a grain o f salt, b ased ,

as th ey are, o n e stim a te s o f IQ s w ith in the occu p atio n s. B u t we h a v e a
way o f c h e c k in g th e 1 9 9 0 e stim ate again st actu al e x p e rie n ce , u sin g the
N a tio n a l L o n g itu d in a l S u rv e y o f Y outh (described fully in th e in tro
d u c tio n to P art II), a n d o u r e stim ate fits quite closely.1151 In an y c a se , the
b a sic tre n d s are u n m ista k ab le . U n lik e the steep slop es we saw for edu-
c a tio n a l c h an g e s in th e first h a lf o f the century, the h ig h -IQ p rofession s
g a in e d p ro p o rtio n a lly little o f th e w orking force th rou gh 1 940. B u t af
ter 1 9 4 0 , th e trick le sw elled to a flood , show n by th e n o n lin e ar upw ard
sw eep o f th e p ro p o rtio n in th e to p IQ decile w ho h a v e m ore recen tly
g o n e to w ork in th is lim ite d n u m b er o f jobs.
T h e H igh-IQ Professions and the Cognitive Elite
We h ave been discussing the top decile: everyone with an IQ of 120 or

higher. W h a t ab ou t people in the even m ore rarefied cognitive elite, the
top fraction o f a cen tile who are so co n cen trated in a handful o f universi-
ties during their college years? W e h ave little to tell us exactly w hat is hap-
pen in g now. but we know w h at the situ ation was fifty years ago, through
Lew is T erm an s fam ous study o f 1,500 highly gifted children w h o were b o m
in th e early 1900s and follow ed throughout their lives. T h eir average IQ s
were over three stan dard deviation s above th e m ean, m eaning th at the Ter-
m an sam ple represented about l/3 0 0 th o f the population. A s o f 1940, the
m em bers o f the Term an sam ple who had finished their sch oolin g were en
gaged in h ig h -IQ professions at three tim es the rate o f people in the top
10 p ercen t 24 percent for the Term an sam ple against 8 p ercen t for the
top decile in 1940, as the preceding figure show s.16 If that was the case in
1940, w hen few er th an one in twelve people in the top decile were work
ing in h igh -IQ professions, w hat m ight b e the proportion for a com para
ble sam ple today? Presum ably m uch higher, though how m uch higher is
im possible to estim ate with the available d a ta .1171
C O G N IT IV E S C R E E N S IN T H E E X E C U T IV E S U I T E
T h e c h a n g e s in our tw elve h igh -IQ p rofession s u n d erstate how m uch

o c c u p a tio n a l co g n itiv e seg reg atio n th ere h as been in th is century. W e
lack d ata a b o u t o th e r profession s and o c c u p atio n s in w h ich m ean IQ
m ay b e co m p arab ly h ig h (e.g., m ilitary officers, writers, jo u rn alists). But
the b igg est o m issio n in v o lv e s b usin ess execu tiv es. For w h ile the m ean
IQ o f all p e o p le w ho go in to b usin ess c a n n o t be n ear 1 2 0 ,1181 b o th c o m
m on sen se an d c irc u m stan tial e v id e n c e suggest th at p eo p le w ho rise to
the u p per e c h e lo n s o f large b u sin esses ten d to h av e h ig h IQ s and th at
this te n d e n c y h a s in creased d u rin g the course o f the century.
O n e so u rce o f c irc u m stan tial e v id e n c e th at ties su ccess in m ajo r b u si
n ess to in te llig e n c e is th e p ast an d p resen t level o f e d u c a tio n of b u si
n ess e x e c u tiv e s.1191 In 1900, m ore th an tw o-thirds o f the presid en ts and
ch airm en o f A m e ric a s largest co rp o ra tio n s did n o t h av e ev en a college
d egree n o t b ecau se m any o f th em w ere poor (few h ad risen from o u t
rig h t p o v e rty ) b u t b e c au se a c o lle g e d egree w as n o t co n sid e re d im p o r

ta n t for ru n n in g a b u sin e ss.20 A W all S tr e e t ty c o o n (h im se lf a H arv a rd
alu m n u s) w ritin g in 1 9 0 8 ad v ise d p a re n ts th a t p ra c tic a l b u sin e ss is th e
b e st sc h o o l an d c o lle g e for th e ir so n s w ho so u g h t a b u sin e ss c are er an d
th a t, in d eed , a c o lle g e e d u c a tio n is in m an y in sta n c e s n o t on ly a h in
d ran c e , b u t ab so lu tely fa ta l to su c c e ss.21
T h e la c k o f a c o lle g e e d u c a tio n d o es n o t m e a n th a t se n io r e x e c u tiv e s
o f 1 9 0 0 w ere n ec e ssarily less b rig h t th a n th eir c o u n te rp a rts in 1 9 9 0 . B u t
o th e r e v id e n c e p o in ts to a re v o lu tio n in th e re c ru itm e n t o f se n io r e x
e c u tiv e s th a t w as n o t m u ch d ifferen t from th e re v o lu tio n in e d u c a tio n a l
s tr a tific a tio n th a t b e g a n in th e 19 5 0 s. In 1 900, th e C E O o f a large c o m
p an y w as likely to b e th e arc h ety p e o f th e p riv ile g e d c a p ita list e lite th a t
C . W rig h t M ills d esc rib ed in T he Pow er Elite: b o rn in to afflu e n ce, th e
so n o f a b u sin ess e x e c u tiv e or a p ro fe ssio n a l p erso n , n o t on ly a W A S P
b u t a n E p isc o p a lia n W A S P .22 In 1 9 5 0 , it w as m u c h th e sam e. T h e fa
th e rs o c c u p a tio n s w ere a b o u t th e sam e as th ey h a d b e e n in 1 9 0 0 , w ith
o v e r 70 p e rc e n t h a v in g b e e n b u sin ess e x e c u tiv e s or p ro fe ssio n a ls, an d ,
w h ile P ro te sta n tism w as less o v erw h elm in g ly d o m in a n t th a n it h a d b e e n
in 1 900, it re m a in e d th e rig h t relig io n , w ith E p isc o p a lia n ism still b e in g
th e rig h te st o f all. Few er C E O s in 1 9 5 0 h a d b e e n b o rn in to w ealth y fa m
ilies (d o w n from a lm o st h a lf in 1 9 0 0 to a b o u t a th ird ), b u t th ey w ere
c o n tin u in g to b e d raw n p rim arily from th e e c o n o m ic a lly c o m fo rtab le
p a rt o f th e p o p u la tio n . T h e p ro p o rtio n c o m in g from p o o r fam ilie s h ad
n o t c h an g e d . M a n y C E O s in th e first h a lf o f th e c en tu ry h a d th e ir jo b s
b e c au se th e ir fam ily s n a m e w as o n th e sig n a b o v e th e facto ry d oor; m an y
h a d re a c h e d th eir e m in e n t p o sitio n s o n ly b e c au se th ey d id n o t h a v e to
c o m p e te ag a in st m ore ab le p e o p le w h o w ere e x c lu d e d fro m th e c o m p e
titio n for la c k o f th e rig h t relig io n , sk in color, n a tio n a l o rig in , or fa m
ily c o n n e c tio n s.
In th e n e x t tw en ty-five years, th e p ic tu re c h an g e d . T h e p ro p o rtio n
o f C E O s w h o c a m e from w ealth y fam ilies h a d d ro p p ed fro m a lm o st h a lf
in 1 9 0 0 an d a th ird in 1 9 5 0 to 5.5 p e rc e n t by 1 9 7 6 .23 T h e C E O o f 1 9 7 6
w as still d isp ro p o rtio n a te ly likely to b e E p isc o p a lia n b u t m u c h less so
th a n in 1 9 0 0 a n d by 1 9 7 6 h e w as also d isp ro p o rtio n ate ly likely to b e
Je w ish , u n h e a rd o f in 1 9 2 0 o r earlier. In sh ort, so c ia l a n d e c o n o m ic b a c k
g ro u n d w as n o lo n ger n early as im p o rta n t in 1 9 7 6 as in th e first h a lf o f
th e century. E d u c a tio n a l le v e l w as b e c o m in g th e h ig h ro a d to th e e x
e c u tiv e su ite a t th e sam e tim e th a t e d u c a tio n w as b e c o m in g m ore de-
In fifty y e a r s, th e e d u c a tio n o f th e ty p ic a l C E O
in c r e a se s fro m h ig h sc h o o l to g ra d u a te sc h o o l
P ercentage o f C E O s with...
70% - ...no m ore than a
Source: Burck 1976, p. 172; N ew com er 1955, Table 24.
p e n d e n t o n c o g n itiv e ability, as C h a p te r 1 sh ow ed . T h e figu re ab o v e

traces th e c h a n g e in h ig h e st e d u c a tio n a l a tta in m e n t fro m 1 9 0 0 to 1 9 7 6
for C E O s o f th e largest U .S . c o m p a n ie s.
T h e tim in g o f th e c h a n g e s is in stru c tiv e . T h e d e c lin e o f th e h ig h
sc h o o l-e d u c a te d c h ie f e x e c u tiv e w as fairly stead y th ro u g h o u t th e p e rio d .
C o lle g e -e d u c a te d CEOs su rged in to th e e x e c u tiv e su ite in th e
1 9 2 5 - 1 9 5 0 p erio d . B u t a s in th e c ase o f e d u c a tio n a l stra tific a tio n , th e
m o st d ra m a tic sh ift o ccu rred after 1950, rep re se n te d by th e sk y ro ck e t
in g p ro p o rtio n o f c h ie f e x e c u tiv e s w h o h ad a tte n d e d g rad u ate s c h o o l.[24!
By 1 9 7 6 , 4 0 p e rc e n t o f th e F o rtu n e 5 0 0 c o m p a n ie s w ere h e a d e d by in
d iv id u als w h ose b a ck g ro u n d w as in fin a n c e o r law, field s o f stu d y th at
are h igh ly sc re e n e d for in te llig e n c e . S o we are left w ith th is c o n se r v a
tive in te rp re tatio n : N o b o d y kn ow s w h at th e IQ m e a n o r d istrib u tio n
w as for e x e c u tiv e s a t th e tu rn o f th e century, b u t it is c le a r th a t, as o f
th e 1990s, th e c o g n itiv e sc re e n s w ere up. H o w far u p ? T h e b ro ad e n v e
lo p e o f p o ssib ilitie s su ggests th a t se n io r b u sin e ss e x e c u tiv e s so a k up a
large p ro p o rtio n o f th e top IQ d e c ile w h o are n o t e n g ag e d in th e dozen
h ig h - IQ p ro fessio n s. T h e co n strain ts leav e n o o th e r p ossibility . H ere are

th e co n strain ts a n d the arith m etic:
In 1990, th e resid en t p o p u la tio n ages 25 to 6 4 (th e age grou p in w hich
th e v a st m ajority o f p eop le w orking in h ig h -IQ p ro fessio n s fall) c o n
siste d o f 127 m illio n p eo p le.25 By d efin ition , th e top IQ d e c ile th us c o n
sisted o f 12.7 m illio n p eop le. T h e labor force o f p erson s ag e d 25 to 64
c o n siste d of 1 00 m illio n p eop le. T h e sm artest w ork in g-age p e o p le are
d isp ro p o rtio n ately likely to b e in th e lab or force (esp e cially sin ce career
o p p o rtu n itie s h av e opened u p for w om en). A s a w orking assu m p tio n ,
su p p o se th a t the la b o r force o f 1 00 m illion in clu d ed 11 m illio n o f the
1 2.7 m illio n p eo p le in the to p IQ decile.
W e already kn ow th a t 7.3 m illio n peop le w orked in th e h ig h -IQ p ro
fe ssio n s th a t year a n d h av e reaso n to believ e th a t ab o u t h a lf o f th ose
(3 .6 5 m illio n ) h a v e IQ s o f 1 2 0 or m ore. S u b tra c tin g 3 .6 5 m illio n from
11 m illio n leav es us w ith ab o u t 7.4 m illion p e o p le in th e lab o r force
w ith IQ s o f 1 20 or m ore u n ac c o u n ted for. M ean w h ile, 12.9 m illio n p e o
p le w ere classified in 1980 as w orking in ex ecu tiv e , ad m in istrativ e , an d
m a n ag e rial p o sitio n s.1261 A h ig h prop ortion o f p eo p le in th ose p o sitio n s
g rad u ated from c o lle g e , on e screen . T h ey h av e risen in th e co rp o rate
h ierarch y over th e course o f their careers, w h ich is p robably a n o th er
screen for IQ . W h a t is their m ean IQ ? T h ere is n o p recise answ er. S tu d
ies su gg est th at th e m e a n for th e jo b category in clu d in g all w h ite -co llar
an d p ro fessio n als is around 107, but th at category is far b road er th a n th e
on e we h av e in m ind. M oreover, th e m ean IQ o f four-year c o lle g e g ra d
u ates in gen eral w as estim ated at ab ou t 115 in 1 9 7 2 , an d se n io r e x e c u
tiv es p rob ab ly h av e a m ean ab o v e th at av erage .27
A t th is p oin t, w e are left w ith startlingly little roo m for m an eu ver.
H o w m an y o f th o se 12.9 m illio n p eop le in ex e c u tiv e , ad m in istrativ e ,
a n d m a n ag e rial p o sitio n s h a v e IQ s ab ove 120? A n y p la u sib le a ssu m p
tio n d ig s d eep into th e 7.4 m illio n people w ith IQ s o f 120 or m ore w ho
are n o t alread y en gag ed in o n e o f th e o th er h ig h -IQ p ro fe ssio n s an d
leav es us w ith an extrem ely h ig h p ro p o rtio n o f p e o p le o f th e lab o r force
w ith IQ s a b o v e 120 w ho are alread y w orking in a h ig h -IQ p ro fessio n or
in a n e x e c u tiv e or m an ag erial p osition . O n e cou ld easily m ak e a c ase
th a t th e figure is in th e n eigh b o rh o o d of 7 0 to 8 0 percent.
C o g n itiv e so rtin g h as b eco m e highly efficien t in the last h a lf century,
b u t h a s it really b eco m e that efficien t? W e c a n n o t answ er d e fin ite ly yes,
b u t it is d iffic u lt to w ork b ack th ro u gh the logic a n d com e up w ith g o o d
re a so n s for th in k in g th a t the estim ates are far o ff the m ark.
It is n o t p rofitab le to p ush m uch fu r th e r a lo n g th is lin e b e c a u s e th e

u n c ertain ties b eco m e too great, b u t th e m a in p o in t is so lid ly e s ta b lis h e d
in an y case: In m idcentury, A m e ric a w a s still a so ciety in w h ic h a la rg e
p ro p o rtio n o f th e top te n th o f IQ , p r o b a b ly a m ajority, w ere s c a tte r e d
th ro u gh o u t th e p o p u latio n , not w o rk in g in a h ig h -IQ p r o fe ssio n a n d not
in a m an ag e rial p o sitio n . A s the c e n tu ry d raw s to a clo se, so m e very h ig h
p ro p o rtio n o f th at sam e group is c o n c e n tr a te d w ith in th o se h ig h ly
screen ed jo b s.
Chapter 3
The Economic Pressure

to Partition
What accounts for the way that people with different levels o f I Q end up in
different occupations? The fashionable explanation has been education. P e o
ple with high S A T scores get into the best colleges; people with the high G R E ,
M C A T , or L S A T test scores get into professional and graduate schools; an d
the education defines the occupation. The S A T score becomes unim portant
once the youngster has gotten into the right college or graduate school.
Without doubt, education is part o f the explanation; physicians need a high
IQ to get into m edical school, but they also need to learn the m aterial that
medical school teaches before they can be physicians. Plenty o f hollow cre-
dentialing goes on a s well, if not in medicine then in other occupations, a s the
educational degree becomes a ticket for jobs that could be done ju st as well by
people without the degree.
But the relationship o f cognitive ability to jo b performance goes beyond that.
A sm arter employee is, on the average, a more proficient em ployee. T his holds
true within professions: Law yers with higher IQ s are, on the average, m ore
productive than lawyers with lower IQ s. It holds true for skilled blue-collar
jo b s: C arpenters with high IQ s are also (on average) more productive than
carpenters with lower IQ s. The relationship holds, although w eakly, even
am ong people in unskilled m anual jo b s.
The magnitude o f the relationship between cognitive ability and jo b per-
fom iance is greater than once thought. A flood o f new analyses during the
1980s established several points with large economic and policy im plications:
Test scores jpredict job performance because they m easure g, S p e a rm a n s
general intelligence factor, not because they identify aptitude fo r a specific
job. A ny broad test of general intelligence predicts proficiency in m ost com
mon occupations, and does so more accurately than tests that are narrow ly
constructed around the jo b s specific tasks.
The advantage conferred by IQ is long-lasting. M uch rem ains to be

learned, but usually the sm arter employee tends to rem ain more productive
than the less sm art employee even after years on the jo b .
A n IQ score is a better predictor o f job productivity than a job interview,
reference checks, or college transcript.
M ost sweepingly important, an employer that is free to pick am ong appli
cants can realize large economic gains from hiring those with the highest IQ s.
A n economy that lets employers pick applicants with the highest IQ s is a sig
nificantly m ore efficient economy. Herein lies the policy problem: Since 1 9 7 1 ,
C ongress and the Supreme C ou rt have effectively forbidden A m erican em
ployers from hiring based on intelligence tests. H ow much does this policy cost
the economy!1 C alcu latin g the answer is complex, so estimates vary widely,
from what one authority thinks <us a lower-bound estimate o f $ 8 0 billion in
1980 to what another authority called an upper-bound estimate o f $ 1 3 billion
for that year.
O u r m ain point has nothing to do with deciding how large the loss is or how
large the gain w ould be if intelligence tests could be freely used fo r hiring.
Rather, it is simply that intelligence itself is importantly related to job perfor
mance . Law s can make the economy less efficient by forbidding employers to
use intelligence tests, but laws cannot make intelligence unim portant.
T
o this p o in t in th e d iscu ssio n , th e forces th a t sort p e o p le in to jo b s
a c c o rd in g to th e ir co g n itiv e ability rem ain am bigu o u s. T h e r e are
th ree m ain p o ssib ilitie s, h in te d at in the p reviou s c h ap te r but n o t as-
se sse d .
T h e first is th e stan d a rd on e: IQ really reflects e d u catio n . E d u c atio n
im p arts sk ills a n d k n o w led ge reading, w riting, d o in g arith m e tic,
k n o w in g so m e fa c ts. T h e sk ills and kn ow led ge are valu ab le in the w ork
p la c e , so em p lo y e rs prefer to hire ed u cated p e o p le . P erh ap s IQ , in an d
o f itself, h a s so m e th in g to d o with p e o p le s p e rform an ce a t w ork, but
p rob ab ly n o t m u c h . E d u c a tio n itself is th e key. M o re is better, for ju st
a b o u t everybody, to ju st ab o u t any level.
T h e se c o n d p o ssib ility is th a t IQ is correlated w ith jo b statu s b ecau se
we liv e in a w orld o f artificial credentials. T h e artisan gu ild s o f o ld w ere
rep laced so m ew h ere alo n g th e way by college or grad u ate degrees. M o st
p a re n ts w an t to see th eir ch ild ren get a t least as m u ch e d u c a tio n as
The Economic Pressure to Partition 65
they g o t, in p art because they w a n t th e ir ch ild ren to p ro fit from

th e v a lu a b le cred en tials. A s the so c ie ty becom es richer, m o re c h ild
ren g e t m ore e d u catio n . A s it h a p p e n s , ed u catio n sc re e n s fo r IQ ,
but th a t is largely in cid e n tal to jo b p erform an ce. T h e jo b m a r k e t, in
turn, sc re e n s for e d u c a tio n a l c re d e n tia ls. S o co g n itiv e s tr a t ific a tio n
o ccu rs in th e w orkplace, b u t it re fle c ts th e prem ium p u t o n e d u c a
tion, n o t o n an y th in g in h e re n t in e ith e r e d u catio n or c o g n itiv e a b ility
itself.
T h e th ird possibility is th a t c o g n itiv e ab ility itse lf sh e e r in t e lle c
tu al h orsepow er, in d e p e n d e n t o f e d u c a tio n h as m ark et v a lu e . S e e n
from th is p ersp ective, the co lleg e d e g re e is n o t a c re d e n tia l b u t a n in
d irect m easure o f in telligen ce. P e o p le w ith college d eg rees te n d to be
sm arter th a n p eop le w ith o u t th em a n d , by ex te n sio n , m ore v a lu a b le in
the m ark etp la c e. E m ployers recruit a t S ta n fo rd or Y ale n o t b e c a u se g ra d
u ates o f th o se sch o o ls k n o w m ore th a n grad u ates o f le ss p re stig io u s
sc h o o ls but for th e sam e gen eric r e a s o n th a t W illie S u tto n g a v e fo r r o b
b in g b an k s. P laces like S ta n fo rd a n d Y ale are w here you fin d th e c o in
o f c o g n itiv e talen t.
T h e first two e x p la n a tio n s h av e so m e valid ity for so m e o c c u p a tio n s.
E v en th e b rig h test ch ild n e e d s fo rm al e d u c atio n , and so m e jo b s re q u ire
m any years o f ad v an ced train in g. T h e p ro b lem o f c re d e n tia lin g is w id e
spread and real: the B .A . is a bo gu s req u ire m e n t for m an y m a n a g e m e n t
jo b s, th e req u irem en t for te ac h in g c e r tific a te s often im p ed es h ir in g g o o d
teac h ers in elem en tary an d se c o n d a ry sch o o ls, and the P h .D . is irre le
v a n t to th e work th at m an y P h .D .s really do.
B u t w h atever the m ix o f tru th a n d fic tio n in th e first tw o e x p la n a
tion s, th e third e x p la n a tio n is a lm o st alw ay s relevan t an d a lm o s t alw ay s
ign ored . T h e process d escrib ed in th e p reviou s c h ap te r is d r iv e n by a
c h arac te ristic o f c o g n itiv e ability th a t is at once little re c o g n iz e d a n d
e ssen tial for u n d erstan d in g how so c ie ty is evolving: in te llig e n c e is fu n
d a m e n tally related to p rod u ctiv ity. T h is relatio n sh ip h o ld s n o t o n ly for
h igh ly sk illed p rofession s b u t for jo b s a c ro ss th e sp ectru m . T h e p o w e r o f
the re latio n sh ip is su fficien t to g iv e ev e ry business so m e in c e n tiv e to
use IQ as a n im p o rtan t se le c tio n c rite r io n .
T h a t in b rief is the th esis o f th e ch ap te r. W e b e g in by re v ie w in g th e
receiv ed w isdom ab ou t th e lin k s b e tw e e n IQ and su c c e ss in life , th e n
the e v id e n c e sp ecifically lin k in g c o g n itiv e ab ility to jo b p ro d u c tiv ity .
T H E R E C E IV E D W ISD O M
T est scores h a v e a m o d e st correlation w ith first-year g rad es an d n o cor

relatio n at all w ith w h at you do in the rest o f your life , w rote Derek
B o k , th en p re sid e n t o f H arvard U niversity, in 1985, referrin g to the
S A T s th at all H a rv a rd ap p lican ts take.1'1 B o k was p o e tically co rre ct in
ways th at a c o lle g e p resid en t u nderstandably w ants to em ph asize. A 17-
year-old w h o h a s g o tte n b a ck a d isap p o in tin g S A T sco re sh o u ld n ot
th in k th at th e future is bleak. Perhaps a fresh m an w ith a n S A T m ath
score o f 5 0 0 h a d b e tte r n o t have his heart set o n b ein g a m a th e m a ti
cian , b u t if in ste a d he w an ts to run his ow n busin ess, b e c o m e a U .S . se n
ator, or m ak e a m illio n dollars, he should n o t p u t asid e th o se dream s
b ecau se so m e o f h is frien d s h av e higher scores. T h e link b etw een test
scores and th o se ac h ie v e m e n ts is dwarfed by the totality o f o th e r c h a r
acteristics th a t h e brin gs to h is life, and th a ts the fact th a t in dividu als
sh ou ld re m e m b e r w h en they look at their te st scores. B o k w as correct
in that, fo r p r a c tic a l pu rp oses, the futures o f m ost o f th e 18-year-olds
th at h e w as a d d re ssin g are o p en to m ost o f th e p o ssib ilities th a t attrac t
them .
P resid en t B o k w as a lso technically correct ab ou t the stu d e n ts at his
ow n university. I f o n e w ere to assem ble the S A T s o f the in co m in g fresh
m en a t H a rv a rd a n d tw enty years later m atch those scores ag a in st som e
q u a n tita tiv e m e a su re o f professional success, the im p act cou ld be m od
est, for re aso n s w e sh a ll discuss. Indeed, if th e m easure o f su ccess was
th e m ost o b v io u s o n e, c ash incom e, then th e relation sh ip b etw een IQ
a n d su ccess a m o n g H a rv a rd graduates could b e less th an m od est; it cou ld
be n il or e v e n n e g a t iv e .121
Finally, P re sid e n t B o k co u ld assert that te st scores w ere m ean in g less
as p red icto rs o f w h at you do in the rest o f your life w ith ou t fear o f c o n
trad ictio n , b e c a u se h e w as expressing w hat every on e k n o w s ab o u t test
sco res and su c c e ss. T h e receiv ed wisdom, p ro m u lg ated n o t on ly in fe a
ture stories in th e p ress b u t cod ified in lan d m ark S u p rem e C o u rt d e c i
sion s, has h e ld th a t, first o f all, the relation b etw een IQ scores an d jo b
p erfo rm an ce is w e a k , a n d , second, w hatever w eak relatio n sh ip th ere is
d ep en d s n o t o n g e n e r a l in tellectu al capacity b u t o n the p articu lar m e n
tal c a p a c itie s o r sk ills req u ired by a p articular jo b .131
T h e re h a v e b e e n se v e ra l reason s for the b ro ad ac c e p tan c e o f th e c o n
clu sion s P re sid e n t B o k drew. Briefly:
A Prim er on the C orrelation Coefficient
W e h a v e periodically m entioned th e correlation coefficient" w ithout say

ing m u ch excep t th at it varies from - 1 to + 1 . It is tim e for a bit m ore de
tail, w ith even more to be found in A p p e n d ix 1. A s in the case o f standard
d eviation s, we urge readers who shy from statistics to take the few minutes
required to understand the concept. T h e nature o f correlation will be in
creasingly im portant as we go along.
A co rrelation coefficient represents the degree to which one phenom
enon is linked to another. H eigh t an d w eight, for exam ple, have a positive
correlation (the taller, the heavier, usually). A positive correlation is one
that falls betw een zero and + 1 , with +1 being an absolutely reliable, linear
relation sh ip. A n egativ e correlation falls betw een 0 and - 1 , with - 1 also
representing an absolutely reliable, linear relationship, but in the inverse
direction. A correlation of 0 m eans n o lin ear relationship whatsoever.141
A crucial poin t to keep in mind about correlation coefficients, now and
through out the rest of the book, is th at correlations in the social sciences
are seld om m uch higher th an .5 (o r low er than - .5 ) and often much
weaker because social events are im precisely measured and are usually af
fected by variables besides the ones th at happened to be included in any
particular body o f data. A correlation o f .2 can nevertheless be big for
m any social science topics. In terms o f so cial phenom ena, m odest correla
tions can produce large aggregate effects. W itness the prosperity o f casinos
desp ite the statistically m odest edge they h o ld over their customers.
M oderate correlations m ean m any exceptions. W e all know people who

d o n o t seem all th at sm art b u t w ho h an d le their jo b s m uch m ore effec
tively th an colleagu es who p robably h a v e m ore raw in telligence. T h e
c o rre latio n s betw een IQ and vario u s job-related m easures are generally
in th e .2 to .6 range. T h ro u g h o u t th e rest o f the book, keep the follow
ing figure in m ind, for it is w h at a highly sign ifican t correlation in the
so c ial sc ie n ce s looks like. T h e figure uses actu al d ata from a random ly
se le cte d 1 p e rc en t o f a n atio n ally rep resen tativ e sam ple, using two vari
ab les th a t are universally ackn ow led ged to h av e a large and socially im
p o rta n t relatio n sh ip , in co m e and ed u c atio n , with the line sh ow ing the
e x p e c te d c h an g e in in co m e for e a c h in crem en t in years o f ed u catio n .151
For th is sam p le, the co rrelatio n w as a statistically sign ifican t .33, and
th e e x p e c te d value o f a n ad d itio n a l year o f ed u catio n was an additional
$ 2 ,8 0 0 in fam ily in co m e a m ajo r su b stan tiv e increase. Y et lo o k at how
T h e v a ria tio n am on g in d iv id u a ls th a t lie s

b e h in d a sig n ifica n t c o rre la tio n c o e ffic ie n t
A nnual in com e (thousands o f 1990 dollars)

80-
:
60-
Correlation: + .33
50-
Expected increase in
incom e per year o f
education: $2,800
Y e a rs o f education
n u m ero u s are th e ex c e p tio n s; n o te esp ecially how p e o p le w ith tw elfth -

grade e d u c a tio n s are sp read out all alo n g th e in co m e c o n tin u u m . F or
virtually every topic ive will be discussing throughout the rest o f the book, a
plot o f the raw d ata would reveal as m any or more exceptions to the general
statistical relationship, and this must always be remembered in trying to trans-
late the general rule to individuals.
T h e e x c e p tio n s a sso c ia te d w ith m od est co rre latio n s m e an th at a w ide
ran ge o f I Q sc o re s c a n be observed in alm o st any jo b , in clu d in g c o m
p le x jo b s su c h as e n g in e e r or p h y sician , a fa c t th at p ro v id e s P re sid e n t
B o k an d o th e r c ritic s o f th e im p ortan ce o f IQ w ith a n a b u n d a n t su p p ly
o f e x c e p tio n s to an y g en eral relation sh ip. T h e e x c e p tio n s d o n o t in v a l
id ate th e im p o rta n c e o f a statistically sig n ifica n t co rre latio n .
Restriction o f range. In any p articu lar jo b settin g , there is a restric te d
ran g e o f c o g n itiv e ability, and the relatio n sh ip b etw een IQ sco re s a n d
jo b p e rfo rm a n c e is p rob ab ly very w eak in that setting. F o rg et ab o u t IQ
for a m o m e n t a n d th in k ab ou t w eight as a q u a lific a tio n for b e in g a n o f
fe n siv e ta c k le in th e N a tio n a l F o o tb all L eag u e. T h e A ll-P ro p ro b a b ly is
n o t th e h e a v ie s t player. O n the o th er h an d , the lig h te st tac k le in th e
leag u e w eigh s a b o u t 2 5 0 pounds. T h a t is w h at we m e an by re stric tio n
o f ran ge. In te rm s o f c o rrelatio n co efficien ts, if we w ere to rate th e p e r
fo rm an c e o f every N F L o ffe n siv e ta c k le an d th e n c o r r e la te th o se ra tin g s

w ith th eir w eights, th e re su lt w o u ld p ro b a b ly b e a c o r r e la tio n n e a r zero.
S h o u ld we th en ap p ro ach th e h e a d c o a c h e s o f th e N F L a n d re c o m m e n d
th a t they try o u t a su p erb ly ta le n te d 1 5 0 -p o u n d a t h le t e a t o ffe n siv e
tack le? T h e answ er is no. W e w o u ld b e rig h t in c o n c lu d in g t h a t p e rfo r
m an c e d oes n o t correlate m u c h w ith w e ig h t a m o n g N F L ta c k le s , w h o se
w eigh ts ran ge upw ard fro m a r o u n d 2 5 0 , b u t n o t a b o u t th e c o r r e la tio n
in th e gen eral p o p u latio n . Im a g in e a sa m p le o f o rd in a ry p e o p le d raw n
from th e gen eral p o p u la tio n a n d in se rte d in to a n o ffe n siv e lin e. T h e
c o rre la tio n betw een th e p e r fo r m a n c e o f th e se p e o p le as ta c k le s in f o o t
ball gam es and their w eig h ts w o u ld b e larg e in d e e d . T h e d iffe re n c e b e
tw een th ese two c o rre la tio n s o n e fo r th e a c tu a l ta c k le s in th e N F L a n d
the o th e r a h y p o th etical o n e fo r p e o p le a t larg e illu stra te s th e im p a c t
o f restric tio n o f ran ge o n c o r r e la tio n c o e ffic ie n ts.16'
C on fusion between a credential an d a correlation. W o u ld it b e silly to
require som eon e to h av e a m in im u m sc o re o n a n I Q te st to g e t a lic e n se
as a barber? Yes. Is it n o n e th e le ss p o ssib le th a t I Q sc o re s are c o rre la te d
w ith barberin g skills? Yes. L a te r in th e c h ap te r, w e d isc u ss th e e c o n o m ic
pros and co n s o f u sin g a w e ak ly c o r r e la te d sc o re a s a c r e d e n tia l fo r h ir
ing, bu t here we n o te sim p ly t h a t so m e p e o p le c o n fu se a w e ll-fo u n d e d
o p p o sitio n to c re d e n tia lin g w ith a less w e ll-fo u n d e d d e n ia l th a t I Q c o r
relates w ith jo b p e rfo rm an c e .7
T he weaknesses o f individual stud ies. U n t il th e la st d e c a d e , e v e n th e
e x p erts h ad reason to th in k t h a t th e re la tio n sh ip m u st be n e g lig ib le .
S c a tte re d across jo u rn als, b o o k s, te c h n ic a l re p o rts, c o n fe r e n c e p r o
ceed in gs, and th e record s o f n u m b e rle ss p e rso n n e l d e p a r tm e n ts w ere
th o u sa n d s o f sam p les o f w o rk ers for w h o m th e re w ere tw o m e a su r e
m en ts: a c o g n itiv e ab ility te st s c o r e o f so m e so rt a n d a n e stim a te o f p r o
ficien cy or productivity o f so m e so rt. H u n d r e d s o f su c h fin d in g s w ere
p u b lish ed , but every a sp e c t o f th is lite ra tu re c o n fo u n d e d an y a tte m p t to
draw g en eral con clu sio n s. T h e sa m p le s w ere u su ally sm a ll, th e m e asu re s
o f p erfo rm an ce and o f w o rk er c h a r a c te r is tic s v a rie d a n d w e re m o re or
less u n reliable and in v alid , a n d th e ran g e s w ere re stric te d fo r b o th th e
test sco re and the p e rfo rm a n c e m easu re. T h is fr a g m e n te d lite ra tu re
seem ed to support th e re c e iv e d w isd o m : T e sts w ere o fte n b a r e ly p r e d ic
tive o f w orker p erfo rm an ce a n d d iffe re n t jo b s se e m e d to c a ll fo r d iffe r
e n t p red ictors. A n d yet m illio n s o f p e o p le are h ire d fo r jo b s ev e ry y ear
in c o m p e titio n w ith o th e r a p p lic a n ts. E m p lo y e rs m a k e t h o s e m illio n s
o f c h o ice s by trying to gu ess w h ich w ill be the b e st worker. W h a t th e n

is a fair w ay for th e em p loy er to m ak e those h irin g d ecisio n s?
S in c e 1971, the an sw er to th a t q u e stio n has b e e n g o v e rn e d by a la n d
m ark S u p rem e C o u rt d e c isio n , G riggs v. Duke Power C o .8 T h e C o u rt
h e ld th at an y jo b req u irem en t, in clu d in g a m inim um c u to ff sco re o n a
m e n tal test, m ust h av e a m a n ife st relatio n sh ip to th e em p lo y m en t in
q u e stio n an d th at it w as up to th e em ployer to p rove th at it d id .9 In
p ractice, this evo lv ed in to a d o c trin e : E m ploym en t tests m u st fo c u s on
th e skills th a t are sp ecifically n e e d e d to perform the jo b in q u e stio n .1101
A n a p p lic a n t for a jo b a s a m e c h a n ic sh ould be ju d ged o n h ow w ell he
d oes o n a m e ch a n ic al a p titu d e test, w h ile an ap p lican t for a jo b as a clerk
sh ou ld be ju d ged o n tests m easu rin g clerical skills, an d so forth . S o d e
creed th e S u p rem e C o u rt, a n d why n o t? In ad d ition to the e x p e rt te sti
m on y befo re the C o u rt fa v o rin g it, it seem ed to m ake g o o d c o m m o n
sense.
T H E R E C E IV E D W IS D O M O V E R T U R N E D
T h e p rob lem is th a t c o m m o n se n se turn ed out to be w rong. In th e last

d ecad e, the receiv ed w isdo m h a s b e e n repudiated by research a n d by
c o m m o n agreem en t o f th e le a d in g co n tem p o rary sch o lars.1" 1T h e m ost
co m p reh en siv e m o d e m su rv ey s o f th e use o f tests for h irin g, p ro m o tio n ,
and licen sin g, in c iv ilia n , m ilitary, p riv ate, an d g o v e rn m e n t o c c u p a
tion s, rep eated ly p o in t to th ree c o n c lu sio n s ab ou t worker p e rfo rm an ce,
as follow s.
1. Jo b train in g an d jo b p e rfo rm a n c e in m any co m m o n o c c u p a tio n s

are w ell p red icted by an y b ro ad ly based test o f in tellig en ce, as c o m
pared to narrow er tests m ore sp ecifically targeted to th e ro u tin es
o f th e jo b . A s a co ro llary : N a rro w e r tests th at p re d ic t w ell d o so
largely b ecau se they h a p p e n th em selv es to be co rrelated w ith tests
o f gen eral c o g n itiv e ab ility .
2. M e n ta l tests p re d ic t jo b p erfo rm an c e largely v ia their lo ad in g o n
S-
3. T h e co rrelatio n s b e tw e e n te ste d in telligen ce and jo b p e rfo rm an ce
or train in g are h igh e r th a n h a d b een estim ated prior to the 1980s.
T h e y are h ig h e n o u gh to h a v e econ o m ic co n seq u en ces.
W e sta te th e se c o n c lu sio n s q u alitativ e ly rath er th a n q u an titativ e ly

so as to sp a n th e ran ge o f e x p ert o p in io n . W h e re a s ex p erts in em ployee
se le ctio n a c c e p t th e ex iste n c e o f th e re la tio n sh ip betw een cogn itiv e
ab ility an d jo b p erform an ce, th ey o fte n d isagree w ith each o th e rs n u
m erical c o n c lu sio n s. O u r q u a litativ e c h arac te riza tio n s sh ou ld be a c
c e p tab le to th o se w ho ten d to m inim ize th e e c o n o m ic im portan ce o f
gen eral c o g n itiv e ab ility an d to th ose at th e o th e r end o f the ran g e .12
W h y h as e x p e rt o p in io n sh ifted? T h e an sw er lies in a pow erful
m eth od o f sta tistic a l an alysis th a t was d e v e lo p in g d u rin g the 1970s and
cam e o f age in th e 1980s. K n ow n as m eta-a n aly sis, it com bin es th e re
sults from m any sep arate stu d ies and e x tra c ts b ro ad and stab le c o n c lu
sio n s.1131 In th e c ase o f jo b p erform an ce, it w as ab le to co m b in e the results
from h un d red s o f studies. E x p erts h ad lon g k n o w n th a t the sm all sam
p les and th e v a ry in g v a lid ities, reliab ilities, an d restrictio n s of range in
su ch stu d ies w ere resp on sible to som e e x te n t for th e low, negligible, or
u n stab le co rre latio n s. W h at few realized w as h ow d ifferen t the pictu re
would lo o k w h en th ese sources o f error an d u n d e re stim atio n were tak en
in to a c c o u n t th ro u gh m e ta-an aly sis.14 T a k e n in dividually, the studies
said little th at c o u ld be trusted or generalized; p rop erly pooled, they were
full o f gold . T h e lead ers in this effort p sy c h o lo g ists Jo h n H u n ter and
F ran k S c h m id t h a v e b een the m o st p ro m in e n t lau n ch e d a new ep o ch
in u n d e rstan d in g th e link b etw een in d iv id u al traits and e co n o m ic pro
ductivity.
T H E L I N K B E T W E E N C O G N IT IV E A B IL IT Y A N D JO B
PERFO RM A N CE
W e b egin w ith a review o f th e ev id en ce th a t a n im p o rtan t statistical

lin k betw een IQ an d jo b p erform an ce d oes in fa c t ex ist. In reading the
d isc u ssio n th at follow s, rem em ber th at jo b p erfo rm an c e does vary in the
real w orld, an d the v ariatio n s are n o t sm all. T h in k o f your ow n w ork
p la ce an d o f th e p eo p le w ho h o ld sim ilar jo b s. H o w large is the differ
en ce b etw een the b est m an ager an d the w orst? T h e b est and worst
secretary? If y o u r w ork place is an y th in g like ours h a v e been, the answ er
is th a t th e d ifferen ces are large in deed . O u tsid e th e w orkplace, w h at is
it w orth to you to h a v e the n am e o f a first-rate p lu m b er in stead o f a poor
on e? A first-rate au to m ech a n ic in stead o f a p o o r on e? O n ce again , the
com m on e x p e rie n c e is th a t jo b p e rfo rm a n c e varies w idely, w ith im por-

tant, tan g ib le c o n se q u e n c e s for o u r every d ay lives.
N o r is v a ria tio n in jo b p e rfo rm a n c e lim ited to sk illed jo b s. R ead ers
who h ave ever h eld m e n ia l jo b s k n o w th is firsth an d . In restau ran ts,
there are b ette r a n d w orse d ish w a sh e rs, b ette r an d w orse busboys. T h e re
are better a n d w orse d itc h d ig g ers a n d garb age c o lle c to rs. P eo p le w h o
work in in dustry k n o w th at n o m a tte r h ow ap p aren tly m in d le ss a jo b is,
the job c an still be d o n e b e tte r o r w o rse , w ith sig n ifica n t e c o n o m ic c o n -
sequences. I f th e c o n se q u e n c e s are sig n ific a n t, it is w orth k n o w in g w h at
accounts for th e d ifferen ce.
Jo b p erform an ce m a y b e m e asu re d in m an y d ifferen t w a y s."5' S o m e tim e s

it is expressed as a n a tu ra l q u a n tita tiv e m easure (how m an y u n its a p e r
son produces p er hour, for e x a m p le ), so m e tim e s as stru ctu red ratin g s by
supervisors or p eers, so m e tim e s a s a n a ly se s o f a w ork sam p le. W h e n th e se
m easures o f jo b p ro d u c tiv ity are c o rre la te d w ith m easu res o f in t e lli
gence, the o v e ra ll c o rre la tio n , a v e ra g e d o v e r m any tests and m an y jo b s,
is about .4. In th e stud y o f jo b p e rfo rm a n c e an d tests, th e c o rre la tio n b e
tw een a test a n d jo b p e rfo rm a n c e is u su ally referred to as the validity o f
the test, an d we sh a ll so refer to it fo r th e rest o f th e d isc u ssio n .1161 M a t h
em atically, v a lid ity a n d th e c o r r e la tio n c o e ffic ie n t are id e n tic a l. L a te r
in the c h a p te r we w ill sh o w th a t a v a lid ity o f .4 h as large e c o n o m ic im
p lication s, a n d e v e n v a lid itie s h a lf a s large m ay w arrant w orrying a b o u t.
T h is figure o f .4 is n o m o re th a n a p o in t o f referen ce. A s o n e m ig h t
expect, the v a lid itie s are h ig h e r fo r c o m p le x jo b s th an for sim p le o n e s.
In Edw in G h is e llis m a m m o th c o m p ila tio n o f jo b p erfo rm an ce stu d ie s,
m ostly from th e first h a lf o f th e cen tu ry, a rean alysis by Jo h n H u n te r
found a m ean v a lid ity o f .5 3 for th e jo b fam ily lab eled m a n a g e r a n d
.46 for a trad e s an d crafts w o rk er. E v e n an elem en tary in d u stria l
w orker h a d a m e a n v a lid ity o f .3 7 .17
T h e G h ise lli d a ta w ere e x tre m e ly h e tero g en eo u s, w ith d ifferen t s t u d
ies using m an y d ifferen t m e a su re s o f c o g n itiv e ability, an d in clu d e d a ta
th at are d e c a d e s o ld . A m o re re c e n t s e t o f d a ta is av ailab le from a m e ta -
analysis o f 4 2 5 stu d ie s o f jo b p ro fic ie n c y a s p red icted by th e G e n e r a l
A p titu d e T e st B atte ry ( G A T B ) , th e U . S . L a b o r D e p a rtm e n ts c o g n itiv e
ability test fo r th e sc re e n in g o f w o rk ers. T h e tab le below su m m arizes th e
results o f Jo h n a n d R o n d a H u n te r s re a n a ly sis o f these d a ta b a s e s .18
T h e av erag e v a lid ity in th e m e ta -a n a ly sis o f th e G A T B stu d ie s w as
4 5 .1191 T h e o n ly jo b c ate g o ry w ith a v a lid ity low er th an .4 0 w as th e in-
T h e V alid ity o f th e G A T B fo r D iffe re n t T y pes o f Jo b s
G A T B Validity for: % of U .S .
Proficien cy Training Workers in These
Job Com plexity R atin gs Success Occupations
General job families
H igh
(synthesizing/coordinating) .5 8 .50 14.7
M edium
(com piling/com puting) .51 .57 62.7
Low (com paring/copying) .4 0 .54 17.7
Industrial job families
H igh (setu p work) .5 6 .65 2.5
Low (feeding/offbearing) .23 NA 2.4
Source: H unter and Hunter 1984, Table 2.
d u strial category o f feed in g/o ffb earin g putting som eth ing in to a m a
ch in e o r tak in g it out w hich o c c u p ie s fewer than 3 percent o f U .S .
w orkers in any case. E v en at th at b o tto m -m o st level o f unskilled labor,
m easured in telligen ce did n o t e n tirely lose its predictiveness, w ith a
m ean v alid ity o f .23.
T h e third m ajor d atab ase b e a rin g on this issue com es from th e m ili
tary, an d it is in m any ways th e m o st satisfactory. T h e A F Q T (A rm ed
Forces Q u a lific a tio n T est) is e x tra c te d from the scores on several tests
th at ev ery o n e in the arm ed forces tak es. It is an intelligence test, highly
loaded o n g . Everyone in the m ilita ry goes to training schools, an d every
on e is m easured for train in g su c c e ss at the end of their sch oolin g, with
train in g su c c ess" based on m easu res th at directly assess jo b perform ance
skills an d know ledge. T h e jo b sp e c ia ltie s in the arm ed forces include
m ost o f th o se found in the c iv ilia n w orld, as well a num ber th at are not
(e.g., c o m b a t). T h e m ilitary keep s all o f these scores in personn el files
and p u ts th em on com puters. T h e resu ltin g database has n o equal in the
study o f jo b productivity.
W e w ill be retu rn in g to the m ilitary data for a closer look w hen we
turn to su b jects for w hich they are uniquely suited. For now, we will sim
ply p o in t o u t th at the results from th e m ilitary conform to the results in
the c iv ilia n jo b m arket. T h e resu lts for training success in the four ma-
T h e V a lid ity o f th e A F Q T fo r M ilita r y T r a in in g

M ean V alidity of
A F Q T S co re and
M ilitary Jo b Fam ily T rain in g S u c ce ss
M echanical .62
Clerical .58
Electronic .67
General technical .62
Source: Hunter 1985, Table 3.
jo r jo b fam ilies are sh o w n in the tab le a b o v e . T h e s e re su lts are based

o n results from 8 2 8 m ilitary sc h o o ls an d 4 7 2 ,5 3 9 m ilita ry personn el.
T h e av erage v a lid ity w as .62. T h e y h old true fo r in d iv id u a l sch o o ls as
w ell. E v en th e lo w est-v alid ity sc h o o l, c o m b at, in w h ic h train in g sue-
cess is h eav ily d e p e n d e n t o n p h y sical skills, th e v a lid ity w as still a sub-
sta n tia l .45.11201
T h e low est m o d e rn estim ate o f v alid ity for c o g n itiv e ab ility is the
o n e c o n ta in e d in th e re p o rt by a p an e l c o n v e n e d by th e N a tio n a l A c a d
em y o f S c ie n c e s, Fairn ess in Em ployment T esting.21 T h a t r e p o rt con clu d ed
th at th e m ean v a lid ity is on ly ab ou t .25 for th e G A T B , in co n trast to
the H u n ter e stim a te o f .45 (w h ich we c ite d e a rlie r). P a r t o f th e reason
w as th a t the H a r tig a n co m m itte e (w e n am e it fo r its c h a irm a n , Y ale sta
tistic ia n Jo h n H a r tig a n ), an alyzin g 264 stu d ie s after 1 9 7 2 , co n clu d ed
th at v a lid itie s h ad g e n e ra lly d rop p ed in th e m o re r e c e n t stu d ies. B u t the
m ain sou rce o f th e d iffe re n c e in v a lid itie s is th a t th e c o m m itte e d eclin ed
to m ak e any c o rre c tio n w h atso ev er for re stric tio n o f ran g e (see ab ove
an d n o te 6 ). It w as, in effect, lo o k in g at ju st th e ta c k le s alread y in the
N F L ; H u n te r w as c o n sid e rin g th e p o p u la tio n a t larg e . T h e H artig a n
c o m m itte e s o v e rrid in g co n cern , a s th e title o f th e ir re p o rt (Fairness in
Em ploym ent T esting) in d ic a te s, was th a t tests n o t b e u se d to e x c lu d e p e o
p le, e sp e c ially b la c k s, w h o m igh t turn o u t to b e satisfac to ry w orkers.
G iv e n th at priority, th e c o m m itte e s d e c isio n n o t to c o r re c t for restric
tio n o f ran ge m ak e s se n se . B u t failin g to c o rre c t for re stric tio n o f range
p ro d u c es a m isle a d in g ly low e stim ate o f th e o v e ra ll re la tio n sh ip o f IQ
to jo b p erfo rm an c e a n d its e c o n o m ic c o n se q u e n c e s.1221 H a d th e H arti-
g a n c o m m itte e c o rre c te d for restric tio n o f ra n g e , th e e stim ate s o f the
re la tio n sh ip w o u ld h a v e b e e n .35 to .40, n o t m u c h le s s th a n H u n te rs.
T H E R E A S O N S F O R T H E L I N K B E T W E E N C O G N IT IV E A B IL IT Y
A N D JO B P E R F O R M A N C E
W h y a re jo b p erfo rm an ce an d cog n itiv e a b ility correlated? Su rg eo n s, fo r

e x a m p le , w ill be draw n from the upper regio n s o f the IQ d istrib u tion .
B u t is n t it p o ssib le th at all on e needs is en o u gh in telligen ce to be a
su rg e o n , a fte r w h ich m ore in tellig en ce d o e sn t m ake m uch differen ce?
M ay b e sm a ll m o to r skills are m ore im p o rtan t. A n d yet m o re in telli-
g e n c e alw ay s seem s to be b etter, for larg e groups o f surgeons and every
o th e r p ro fe ssio n . W h at is go in g on th at p ro d u ces such a result?
Specific Skills or g?
A s w e b e g in to exp lore th is issue, the story departs m ore d rastically from

th e re c e iv e d w isdom . O n e obvious, co m m o n se n se e x p la n atio n is th at
an I Q te st in d irectly m easures how m u c h som ebody know s about th e
sp e c ific s o f a jo b an d th at th a t specific k n o w led ge is the rele v an t th in g
to m e asu re . A c c o rd in g to this logic, m o re general in tellectu al cap aci-
ties are b esid e th e point. B u t the logic, how ever com m on sen sical, is
w ron g. S u rp risin g as it m ay seem , the p re d ic tiv e power o f tests for jo b
p e rfo rm a n c e lies alm o st com p letely in th e ir ability to m easure th e m o st
g e n e ra l form o f co g n itiv e ability, g, and h a s little to do w ith their a b il
ity to m e a su re ap titu d e or know ledge fo r a particular job.
S p e c if ic S k il l s V e r s u s g in t h e M il it a r y . T h e m ost com p lete d ata o n

th is issu e c o m e from the arm ed services, w ith their unique ad v a n tag e s
as a n e m p lo y e r th at trains h un d red s o f th o u sa n d s o f people fo r h u n d red s
o f jo b sp e c ia ltie s. W e b eg in with th em and th en turn to the c o rre
s p o n d in g d a t a from the c iv ilian sector.
In a ssig n in g recruits to train in g sc h o o ls, the services u se p articu lar
c o m b in a tio n s o f su b tests from a test b a tte ry th at all recru its take, th e
A r m e d S e r v ic e s V o c a tio n a l A p titu d e B atte ry (A S V A B ) .1231 T h e P e n ta
g o n s p sy c h o m e tric ia n s h a v e tried to d eterm in e w hether th ere is an y
p ra c tic a l b e n e fit o f usin g d ifferen t w eig h tin g s o f the su b tests for d iffe r
e n t jo b s ra th e r th an , say, ju st using th e overall score for a ll jobs. T h e
o v e ra ll sc o re is itse lf tan tam o u n t to an in te llig e n c e test. O n e o f the m o st
c o m p re h e n siv e stu d ies o f th e p red ictiv e pow er o f in telligen ce tests w as
by M a lc o lm R e e and Ja m e s Earles, w h o h ad bo th the in telligen ce te st
sc o re s a n d th e fin a l grades from m ilitary sc h o o l for over 7 8 ,0 0 0 air force
e n liste d p erso n n el sp re ad o v e r eighty-nine m ilitary sp ecialtie s. T h e p e r

so n n e l w ere e d u c a tio n a lly h om ogen eo u s (overw h elm in gly h ig h sc h o o l
g rad u ates w ith ou t c o lle g e d e g re e s), con ven ien tly c o n tr o llin g for e d u
c a tio n a l b a ck g ro u n d .1241
W h a t ex p la in s h o w w ell th ey perform ed? For every o n e o f th e eigh ty-
n in e m ilitary sc h o o ls, th e an sw er w as g C h a rle s S p e a rm a n s g e n e ra l
in tellig en ce. T h e c o r r e la tio n s b e tw e e n g a lo n e and m ilitary sc h o o l g rad e
ran ged from an a lm o st u n b e lie v a b ly high .90 for th e cou rse for a te c h
n ical jo b in a v io n ic s re p a ir d o w n to .41 for th at for a low -skill jo b a s s o
c ia ted w ith je t e n g in e m a in te n a n c e .1251 M ost o f th e c o rre latio n s w ere
a b o v e .7. O v e rall, g a c c o u n te d for alm ost 60 p e rce n t o f the o b se rv e d
v a ria tio n in sc h o o l g ra d e s in th e average m ilitary cou rse, o n c e the r e
sults w ere co rrected fo r ra n g e restrictio n (th e acco m p an y in g n o te sp e lls
ou t w h at it m ean s to a c c o u n t for 6 0 percent o f the o b se rv e d v a ria
tio n ) .1261
D id c o g n itiv e fa c to rs o th e r th a n g m atter at all? T h e an sw er is t h a t
the ex p la n ato ry p o w er o f g w as alm ost thirty tim es greater th a n o f a ll
o th e r co g n itiv e fac to rs in A S V A B com bin ed. T h e table below g iv e s a
sa m p lin g o f the re su lts fro m th e eighty-nine sp ecialties, to illu strate th e
T h e R o le o f g in E x p la in in g T rain in g S u c c e s s fo r
V a r io u s M ilita r y S p e cialtie s
Enlisted M ilitary Percentage of Training

S kill Category Success Explained by:
g Everything E lse
N u cle a r w eapons sp e c ia list 77.3 0.8
A ir crew o p eration s sp e c ia list 69.7 1.8
W eath er sp ec ia list 68.7 2.6
In telligen ce sp e c ia list 66.7 7.0
F irem an 59.7 0.6
D en tal assistan t 55.2 1.0
Secu rity p olice 53.6 1.4
V eh icle m ain ten an ce 49.3 7.7
M ain te n an ce 28.4 2.7
Source: R ee and E arles 1990a, T ab le 9.

tw o c o m m an d in g fin din gs: g a lo n e e x p la in s an extrao rd in ary p ro p o r tio n

o f train in g su ccess; every th in g e lse in th e test battery e x p la in e d v ery
little.
A n e v en larg er study, n o t q u ite a s d e taile d , in volving a lm o st 3 5 0 ,0 0 0
m en a n d w om en in 125 m ilitary sp e c ia ltie s in all fou r arm ed se r
vices, co n firm ed th e p re d o m in a n t in flu en ce o f g and th e re la tiv e ly
m in o r fu rth er p red ictiv e pow er o f a ll th e other facto rs e x tr a c te d
from A S V A B sco res.27 S till a n o th e r study, o f alm ost 2 5 ,0 0 0 a ir fo rc e
person n el in th irty-seven d ifferen t m ilita ry courses, sim ilarly fou n d th a t
th e valid ity o f in d ivid u al A S V A B su b te sts in predictin g th e fin a l te c h -
n ical sc h o o l grad es was h igh ly c o rre la te d w ith the g lo ad in g o f th e
su b te st.1281
E v id e n c e from C iv il ia n J o b s . T h e re is n o evidence to su g g est th a t

m ilitary jo b s are unique in th e ir d e p e n d e n c e on g. H ow ever, sc h o la rs
in the c iv ilia n sec to r are a t a d isa d v a n ta g e to their m ilitary c o lle a g u e s;
n o th in g ap p ro ac h e s the m ilitary s d a ta b a se on this topic. In o n e o f th e
few m ajo r stu d ies in v o lv in g c iv ilia n jo b s, perform ance in tw e n ty -e igh t
o c c u p atio n s co rrelated virtu ally a s w ell w ith an estim ate o f g from
G A T B sco res as it did w ith th e m o st p red ictiv ely w eighted in d iv id u a l
su b test scores in the battery.1291 T h e auth or con clu ded th a t, for
sam p les in th e ran ge o f 100 to 2 0 0 , a sin gle factor, g, p re d ic ts jo b
p erform an ce as w ell as, or b e tte r th a n , b a tterie s of w eig h ted su b te st
scores. W ith larger sam ples, for w h ich it is possible to p ick up th e
effect o f less p o te n t in flu en ces, th ere m ay be som e m o d e st e x tr a
b en efit o f sp ecialized w eigh ted sco res. A t n o level o f sam p lin g ,
how ever, d o es g b ecom e a n y th in g less th an the best sin g le p re d ic to r
know n, acro ss the o c c u p a tio n a l sp e c tru m . Perhaps the m o st su rp risin g
fin din g h as b e e n th at tests o f g e n e ra l in tellig en ce o fte n do b e tte r in
p red ictin g fu ture jo b p erfo rm an c e th a n do con trived tests o f jo b
p erform an ce itself. A tte m p ts to d e v ise m easures th at are sp e c ific a lly
keyed to a jo b s tasks for e x a m p le , te sts o f filing, typing, an sw e rin g
th e te le p h o n e , search in g in rec o rd s, an d the like for a n o ffic e
w orker o fte n yield low -valid ity tests, u n less they h ap p e n to m e asu re
g, su ch as a vo cab u lary test. G iv e n h o w p ervasive g is, it is a lm o st
im p ossible to m iss it entirely w ith any test, b u t som e tests are far m o re
efficien t m easu res o f it th an o th e r s .10
Behind the Test Scores
Let us try to p u t these d a ta in th e fram ew ork o f everyday e x p e rie n ce .

W hy should it be chat v a ria tio n in g en eral c o gn itiv e ability, g, is m ore
im portant th an jo b -sp e cific sk ills an d know ledge? W e w ill use th e jo b
o f busboy as a specific e x a m p le , a sk in g th e q u estio n : A t a run-of-the-
m ill fam ily restauran t, w h at d istin g u ish e s a really good busboy from a n
average one?
Being a busboy is a straigh tfo rw ard jo b . T h e w aiter tak es th e orders,
deals w ith th e kitch en , a n d serv es th e food w hile th e busboy to te s th e
dirty dishes o u t to the k itc h e n , k eep s th e w ater glasses filled, an d h e lp s
the w aiter serve or c le a r as required . In such a job, a h igh IQ is n o t re
quired. O n e m ay be a g o o d b u sb o y sim p ly w ith d iligen ce an d g o o d sp ir
its. But c o m p lica tio n s arise. A b u sb o y usually works w ith m ore th an o n e
waiter. T h e restau ran t g e ts crow d ed . A dozen th in gs are h a p p e n in g a t
once. T h e busboy is su d d en ly fac ed w ith qu eu in g problem s, w ith se ttin g
priorities. A really g o o d b u sbo y g ets th e key statio n cleared in th e n ick
o f tim e, rem em berin g th a t a ta b le o f new orders near th at p articu lar s t a
tion is goin g to be c o m in g o u t o f th e k itch e n ; w hen he goes to th e
kitchen, he gets a fresh w ate r p itc h e r and a fresh co n d im en t tray to sav e
an extra trip. H e k n o w s w h ich w aiters ap p reciate ex tra h elp an d w h en
they need it. T h e p o in t is o n e th a t sh o u ld draw broad ag re e m e n t from
readers who h av e held m e n ia l jo b s: G iv e n th e oth er necessary q u alitie s
o f diligence an d g o o d sp irits, in te llig e n c e helps. T h e really goo d bu sboy
is engaged in u sin g g w h e n h e is so lv in g th e p roblem s o f h is jo b , an d th e
more g he has, th e m ore q u ic k ly h e c o m e s up w ith the so lu tio n s an d c a n
call on them w h en ap p ro p ria te.
N o w im agin e d e v isin g a te st th a t w ould en ab le an em p loy er to
choose the b est busboy a m o n g a p p lic a n ts. O n e im p ortan t a sp e c t o f th e
test would m easure d ilig e n c e an d g o o d spirits. Perhaps th e e m p lo y er
should w eigh the resu lts o f th is p art o f th e test m ore h e av ily th a n
any th ing else, if h is c h o ic e is b e tw e e n a d ilig en t and cheerful a p p lic a n t
and a slightly sm arter b u t sulky o n e. B u t w hen it com es to m e asu rin g
perform ance in g en eral for m o st ap p lic a n ts, it is easy to see why th e re
sults w ill m atc h th e fin d in g s o f th e literature we ju st d iscu ssed . Jo b -
sp ecific item s reveal m o stly w h e th e r a n a p p lic an t has ever b e e n a
busboy before. B ut th a t m a k e s very little differen ce to jo b p ro d u c
tivity, b ecau se a b rig h t p e rso n c a n p ic k up th e basic rou tin e in th e
course o f a few sh ifts. T h e g -lo a d e d item s, o n the oth er h an d , w ill
reveal w h eth er th e ap p lic an t will ever b ec o m e the kind o f busboy

w ho will clear tab le 12 before h e clears tab le 20 because he relates the
needed task to so m eth in g th at h ap p en ed twenty m inutes earlier
regarding table 15. A n d th at is why em ployers who w ant to select pro
ductive bu sbo ys sh ou ld give ap p lican ts a test o f general in telligence
rath er th an a test o f busboy skills. T h e kin d o f test th at would pass
m uster w ith th e courts a test o f jo b -sp ecific skills is a less effective
kind o f test to adm inister. W h at applies to busboys applies ever m ore
pow erfully as th e jo b s becom e m ore com p lex .
D O E S M O R E E X P E R IE N C E M A K E U P F O R L E S S IN T E L L IG E N C E ?
T h e busboy e x a m p le leads to an o th er q u estio n th at bears o n how we

sh ould th in k ab o u t cogn itiv e ability an d jo b productivity: How m uch
can ex p erien ce co u n terb alan ce ability? Yes, the sm art busboy will be
m ore p ro d u ctiv e th an the less-sm art busboy a week into the job, and,
yes, p erh ap s th ere will always be a few th in gs th at the sm art busboy can
do th at th e less sm art can n o t. But w ill th e in itial gap in productivity
narrow as the less-sm art busboy gains exp erien ce? H ow m uch, and how
quickly?
S ep arately, jo b perform ance relates to b o th experience and in te lli
gen ce, bu t the relation sh ip s differ.31 T h a t is, people who are new to a
jo b learn q u ickly a t first, then m ore slowly. A busboy who has, say, one
m on th o n the jo b m ay for th at reason outperform som eone who started
today, b u t the o n e-m o n th difference in ex p erien ce will h ave ceased to
m atter in six m o n th s. N o com parable levelin g-off effect has been o b
served for in creasin g in telligen ce. W h erev er on the scale o f intelligence
pairs of ap p lic a n ts are, the sm arter on es n o t only will outperform the
others, o n th e av erage, but the benefit o f h av in g a score th at is h igh er
by a giv en a m o u n t is approxim ately th e sam e throughout the range. Or,
to p u t it m ore con servatively, n o on e h as p rod u ced good evidence o f d i
m in ish in g returns to in tellig en c e.12
But w h at h ap p e n s w hen both factors are considered jointly? D o
em ployees of d ifferin g in telligen ce con v erge after som e tim e o n the
jo b ? If th e an sw er w ere yes, th en it could be argued th at hiring less in
tellig en t p eo p le im poses on ly a lim ited an d p assin g cost. But the answ er
seem s to be clo se r to n o th an to yes, alth o u g h m uch rem ains to be
learned.
S o m e co n v e rg e n c e has been found w h en SA T s are used as the m ea
sure o f ability and g rad e p o in t av e rag e is used as th e m easu re o f a c h ie v e

m en t.33 S tu d e n ts w ith d iffe rin g SA T s som etim es differ m ore in th eir
fresh m an grades th a n in later years. T h a t is why P resid en t B o k gran ted
p red ictiv e v alu e to th e S A T o n ly for first-year grad es.34 O n th e o th e r
h an d, the sh rin k in g p re d ic tiv e pow er m ay be b ecau se stu d e n ts learn
w hich cou rses they are likely to d o w ell in: T h ey drop o u t o f p h y sics o r
third-year calcu lu s, for e x a m p le , an d sw itch to easier cou rses. T h e y fin d
ou t w h ich professors are stin g y w ith A s and B s. A t th e U .S . M ilitary
A cadem y, w here stu d en ts h a v e very little ch oice in cou rses, th ere is n o
con v erg en ce in grad e s.35
W h en it com es to jo b p erfo rm an ce, the balan ce o f th e e v id e n c e is
th at co n v ergen ce eith e r d o e s n o t occur or th at the d egree o f c o n v e r
g en ce is sm all. T h is w as th e fin d in g of a study o f ov er 2 3 ,0 0 0 c iv ilia n
em ployees a t three lev els o f m e n ta l ability (high, m edium , an d low ), u s
ing sup ervisor ratin gs as th e m easu re o f perform ance, an d it e x te n d e d
o u t to jo b tenures o f tw en ty years and m ore.36 A study o f fou r m ilitary
sp ecialties (arm or rep airm a n , arm o r crew m an, supply sp e c ia list, c o o k )
e x te n d in g o u t to five years o f ex p erien ce and using three d ifferen t m e a
sures o f jo b p erfo rm an ce (su p e rv iso rs ratings, work sam p le, an d jo b
kn ow led ge) foun d n o relia b le ev id en c e o f con v erg en ce.37 S t ill a n o th e r
m ilitary study, w h ich e x a m in e d sev eral hundred m arines w ork in g as r a
d io repairm en, au to m o tiv e m e c h a n ic s, and riflem en, fou n d n o c o n v e r
gen ce am o n g p erso n n el o f d iffe rin g in telligence w hen jo b k n o w led g e
w as the m easure o f p e rfo rm an c e b u t did find alm o st c o m p le te c o n v e r
gen ce after a year o r so w h en a w ork sam ple was the m e asu re .38
O th e r stu d ies c o n v ey a sim ilarly m ixed p ictu re /391 S o m e ex p e rts are
at this p o in t c o n c lu d in g th a t c o n v erg en c e is u n com m o n in th e ord in ary
ran ge o f jo b s.140' It m ay be sa id con serv atively th at for m o st jo b s, b ased
o n m o st m easures o f p ro d u ctiv ity , the difference in p ro d u c tiv ity a s s o c i
a te d w ith d ifferen ces in in te llig e n c e dim inishes on ly slow ly an d p a r
tially. O fte n it d o e s n o t d im in ish a t all. T h e cost o f h irin g less in te llig e n t
w orkers m ay last as lo n g as th ey stay on the job.
T E S T S C O R E S C O M P A R E D T O O T H E R P R E D IC T O R S O F
P R O D U C T IV IT Y
H o w g o o d a p red ic to r o f jo b p ro d u ctiv ity is a c o g n itiv e test sco re c o m

p ared to a jo b in terview ? R e fe re n c e checks? C ollege tran scrip t? T h e a n
swer, p robably su rp risin g to m any, is th a t th e te st score is a better p re

d icto r o f jo b p erfo rm an ce th an any o th er sin g le m easure. T h is is th e
c o n c lu sio n to be draw n from a m eta-an alysis o n the different p red ictors
o f jo b p erfo rm an ce, as show n in th e tab le below .
T h e V alid ity o f S o m e D iffe r e n t P re d ic to rs

o f Jo b P e rfo rm a n c e
Predictor Validity Predicting Job

Perform ance Ratings
C o g n itiv e test score .53
B iograp h ical data .37
R eferen ce ch ecks .26
E d ucation .22
Interview .14
C o lle g e grades ,11
Interest .10
A ge - .0 1
Source: Hunter and Hunter 1984.
T h e d a ta used for th is analysis were top h e a v y with h igh er-com plex-

ity job s, y ie ld in g a h igher-than -usual valid ity o f .53 for test scores. H o w
ever, e v en if w e w ere to substitute the m o re con serv ative v alid ity
estim ate o f .4, th e test score w ould rem ain th e best predictor, th o u g h
with clo se c o m p e titio n from b iograp h ical d ata.'11 T h e m eth od th at m an y
peop le in tu itiv ely ex p e c t to be th e m ost accu rate , the jo b interview , h a s
a p o o r record as a p red ictor o f jo b p erform an ce, with a v alid ity o f
only .14.
R ead ers w h o are ab solutely sure n o n e th e le ss th at they should tru st
their ow n asse ssm e n t o f p eo p le rath er th an a test score should p au se to
con sid er w h at th is c o n c lu sio n m eans. It is n o t th at you w ould se le c t a
m arkedly d ifferen t set o f p eop le through in terview s th an test sc o re s
w ould lead you to select. M an y o f the d e c isio n s would be the sam e. T h e
results in the tab le say, in effect, th at am o n g those ch oices th at w ould
be d ifferen t, th e em ployees ch o sen o n the b a sis o f test scores will o n a v
erage be m ore p ro d u c tiv e th an th e em p loy ees ch osen on the basis o f any
oth er sin g le item o f in form ation .
T H E D IF F E R E N C E I N T E L L I G E N C E M A K E S
W e arrive fin ally a t th e q u e stio n o f what it all m ean s. H ow im p o rta n t

is th e ov erall c o rre la tio n o f .4, w h ich we are u sin g as o u r b e n c h m a rk for
the relatio n b e tw e e n in te llig e n c e a n d job p erform an ce ? T h e te m p ta tio n
m ay b e to say, n o t very. A s w e show ed before, th ere w ill be m an y e x -
c e p tio n s to th e p re d ic te d p ro d u c tiv ity with c o rre latio n s th is m o d e st.
A n d in deed it is n o t very im p o rta n t when an em ployer n e e d s ju st a few
new em ployees fo r lo w -c o m p le x ity jobs an d is c h o o sin g a m o n g a s m a ll
group o f jo b a p p lic a n ts w h o h a v e sm all d ifferen ces in test sco res. B u t
th e m ore reality d e p a rts fro m th is scenario, th e m ore im p o rta n t c o g n i
tive ability b ec o m es.
T h e D ollar V alue o f C o g n itiv e A bility
H o w m uch is th e v a r ia t io n in jo b perform ance w orth? T o an sw er t h a t

q u estio n , we n eed a m e asu re in d ollars o f h ow m u ch th e w orkers in a
g iv e n o c c u p a tio n vary. (S o m e o f th e m ethods for m ak in g this m e a su r e
m en t are re c o u n te d in th e n o te s, to w hich we refer read ers w h o w o u ld
like m ore d e ta il.)1421 T o c u t a lo n g story short, th in k now o f a p a r tic u la r
w orker a secretary, le t us say. Y ou h av e a ch o ice b etw een h irin g an a v
erage secretary, w h o by d e fin itio n is a t the 5 0 th p e rc e n tile , or a first-ra te
o n e a t the 8 4 th p e rc e n tile , le t us say. If you w ere free to se t th e ir
sa la rie s a t th e figu res you b e lie v e to reflect th eir true w orth , h ow d iffe r
e n t w ou ld they b e? W e im a g in e th a t anyone w h o h as w orked w ith a v
e ra g e secretaries an d first-ra te o n es will answ er a lo t. T h e c o n s e n s u s
a m o n g exp erts h a s b e e n th a t, m easured in d ollars, a lo t w orks out, o n
th e a v e ra g e , to a b o u t a 4 0 p e rc e n t prem ium .
P u t m ore te c h n ic a lly a n d precisely, one stan d ard d e v ia tio n o f th e d i s
trib u tio n o f w ork ers a n n u a l p ro d u ctiv ities in a typ ical o c c u p a tio n is
w o rth 4 0 p e rc e n t o f th e a v e ra g e w orkers an n u al in c o m e .1431 N e w w o rk
su g g ests th e p rem iu m m ay ac tu a lly b e twice as large. S in c e th e larger e s
tim a te h a s yet to b e c o n firm e d , we w ill base our c a lc u la tio n s o n th e m o r e
c o n se rv a tiv e e stim a te .44 T o ta k e a specific exam p le, for a $ 2 0 ,0 0 0 -a - y e a r
jo b , w h ich is c o rre c tly p ric e d for a n average worker, th e in c r e m e n ta l
v a lu e o f h irin g a n ew w o rk er w ho is one stan d ard d e v ia tio n ab o v e t h e
m e a n a t th e 8 4 th p e r c e n tile is $8 ,0 0 0 per y ear.1451 H irin g a w o rk e r
for a $ 2 0 ,0 0 0 -a - y e a r jo b w h o is o n e stan dard d e v ia tio n below th e m e a n
at th e 1 6 th p e rc e n tile w o u ld c o st th e em ployer $ 8 ,0 0 0 in lo st o u tp u t.
T h e stan d a rd d ev iatio n for o u tp u t is u su ally larger for m ore c o m p le x

jo b s.46 T h is m ak es in tuitive sense: a n asse m b ly -lin e worker c a n d o his
jo b well or poorly, b u t ordinarily th e g ap th a t sep arates the p ro ficie n cy
o f the 16 th an d 8 4 th p ercen tiles o f asse m b ly -lin e workers is n o t a s g re at
m easured in th e d ollar value o f the o u tp u t as th e gap th at se p a ra te s the
p roficien cy o f the 16th and 8 4 th p e rc e n tile s o f engineers. B u t w h e n we
m atch th is fa c t again st an ad d itio n a l fa c t th a t engineers m ak e a lot
m ore m on ey th an assem bly-line w ork ers we are faced w ith w h at is
know n in sta tistic s as an in teractio n e ffe c t. G e ttin g high q u a lity for a
c o m p le x jo b c a n be w orth large m u ltip le s o f w h at it is w orth to get
equally h igh q u ality for a sim pler jo b .
W e m ay m ak e this con crete w ith so m e h y p o th e tical c alc u latio n s.
Im agin e a d e n ta l office, con sistin g o f d e n tist a n d recep tion ist. A ssu m e
th at th e a n n u al salary o f an average d e n tist is $ 1 0 0 ,0 0 0 and th a t o f the
recep tio n ist $ 2 5 ,0 0 0 , an d th at th ese are co rrec tly priced. F or w h atever
reasons, society finds the d en tist to be w o rth fo u r tim es as m u ch as the
rece p tio n ist.1471 S u p p o se further th a t y o u are a n em ployer a H e a lth
M a in te n a n c e O rgan ization (H M O ), for e x a m p le who hires b o th d e n
tists an d recep tio n ists. By using a c e r ta in se le c tio n procedure, y ou can
im prove the q u ality o f your new h irees, so th a t in stead of h irin g p eo p le
w ho are, on av erage, at th e 5 0 th p e rc e n tile o f proficiency (w h ic h is w hat
w ould h a p p e n if you p icked ran do m ly fro m th e entire p o o l o f recep
tio n ists and d e n tists lo o k in g fo r jo b s), you in ste a d could hire p e o p le w ho
are, o n av erage, a t the 8 4th p erc en tile. W h a t is this scree n in g p ro c e
dure w orth to you?
For the v alu e o f the ou tp u t p rod u ced , w e use a standard d e v ia tio n o f
.5 o f th e a n n u al in co m e for d en tists a n d o f .15 for th at o f re c e p tio n ists,
based o n valu es actually ob served .48 T h e answ er, given th ese n u m bers,
is th at it is w orth $ 5 0 ,0 0 0 a year for th e d e n tis t and $ 3 ,7 5 0 p e r year for
th e re c e p tio n ist to hire p eop le w ho are o n e stan d ard d e v ia tio n ab ove
av erage in p roficien cy n o t the ratio o f fou r to one th at se p a ra te s the
d e n tists w ages from th e rec ep tio n ists b u t a r a tio o f m ore th a n th irteen
[49!
to on e.
W e are n o t h om e yet, for a lth o u g h w e know w h at it is w orth to hire
these m ore p ro ficien t d en tists and re c e p tio n ists, we h av e n o t yet fa c
tored in the v alid ity o f the se le ctio n te st. T h e correlation b e tw e e n test
score an d p ro ficien cy is roughly .6 for d e n tists an d .2 for re c e p tio n ists,
again based o n o b serv atio n and a p p r o x im a tin g the top an d b o tto m of
th e ra n g e illustrated in th e figu re below. G iv e n th at in fo rm atio n , we

m ay e stim a te the e x p e c te d o u tp u t d ifferen ce betw een tw o d e n tists
w ho s c o r e at th e 5 0 th a n d 8 4 th p ercen tiles o n an in te llig e n c e test as
bein g w o rth $ 3 0 ,0 0 0 a y ear.1501 T h e correspon ding d iffe re n ce betw een
tw o re c e p tio n ists w ho sc o re a t th e 5 0 th and 84th p e rc e n tile s in in
te llig e n c e is $ 7 5 0 a year. A n d th is is w h at w e m ean t by a n in terac-
tio n e ffe c t : th e w age o f th e d e n tist is only four tim es th a t o f the
rece p tio n ist. B u t th e v a lu e to th e em ployer o f h iring brigh ter d en tists
is forty tim es greater th a n th e value o f hiring c o m p a rab ly brigh ter
re c e p tio n ists.1511
In a real-life situ atio n , th e v a lu e of a test (or any o th e r se le c tio n p ro
c ed u re) d ep e n d s on a n o th e r fac to r: H ow m uch ch o ice d oes th e em ployer
h av e?52 T h e r e is n o p o in t in sp en d in g m oney o n an in te llig e n c e test if
on ly o n e ap p lic an t sh ow s up. If te n ap p lican ts show up for th e jo b , h ow
ever, a te st becom es a ttra c tiv e . T h e figure below illu strates th e e c o
n o m ic b e n e fit o f te stin g w ith d ifferen t levels o f co m p e titio n for th e jo b
(from o n e to fifty a p p lic a n ts p er jo b ) an d different tests (from a very
T h e a d v a n ta g e s o f h irin g by te st sc o re
P ercen tag e in crease in productivity

p oor one w ith a v a lid ity o f .2 to a very stro n g o n e w ith a validity o f .6) .[531
If every on e is h ired , th en , on average, th e h ire d person is ju st a t the av-
erage level o f proficien cy, w hich is a stan d a rd score o f 0. B u t as so o n as
ev en two ap p lic a n ts are av ailab le per p o sitio n , the value o f testin g rises
quickly. W ith ju s t tw o ap p lican ts per p o sitio n , th e em ployer gains 16 to
48 p e rc e n t in p rod uctivity, d ep en d in g o n th e validity o f the test.1541 T h e
curve quickly b e g in s to flatten out; m u ch o f th e p o te n tial valu e of test-
ing h as alread y b een captured w hen there are three ap p lican ts per job.
T h e figure ab o v e is a n answ er to those who claim th at a correlation of,
say, .4 is to o sm all to b o th er w ith .55 A v alid ity o f .4 (or even .6) may be
u n im p o rtan t if a lm o st all ap p lican ts are h ired, but even a correlation of
.2 (o r still sm aller) m ay be im p o rtan t if on ly a sm all proportion gets
hired.
T he M acroecon o m ic C o sts o f N o t Testing
S in c e th e p iv o ta l S u p rem e C o u rt d ecisio n o f Griggs v. Duke Power C o.

in 1971, n o large A m e ric a n em ployer h as b e e n able to hire from the top
dow n based o n in telligen ce tests. E stim ates vary widely for how m uch
the A m e ric a n ec o n o m y loses by n o t d o in g so, from w hat H u nter and
H u n ter c o n c lu d e is a m in im u m loss o f $ 80 b illio n in 1980 (an d in 1980
dollars) to w h at th e H artigan c o m m ittee th o u g h t was a m axim um loss
of $ 1 3 b illio n fo r th at year.56 T h e w ide ran ge reflects the m any im pon
d erables in m ak in g th ese calcu latio n s. For o n e thing, m any attributes o f
an ap p lic a n t o th e r th an a test score are co rrelated w ith in telligen ce
ed u c atio n al lev el, for exam p le. S c h o o lin g cap tu res som e, but n ot all, o f
the p red ictiv e v a lu e o f in telligen ce. O r co n sid er an em ployer using fam
ily c o n n e c tio n s to h ire instead o f tests. A brigh t w orker is likely to h av e
a bright sister o r brother. B u t th e average IQ score differen ce betw een
sib lin g s is e le v e n o r tw elve points, so, again , test scores would p red ict
p ro ficien cy b e tte r th a n ju d gin g an ap p lic a n t by th e work o f a broth er or
sister.
M o d e lin g th e e c o n o m ic im p act o f testin g h as ad d itio n al com plexi-
ties. It h a s b e e n n o te d th at th e ap p lican t p o o l w ould gradually g et d e
pleted o f the to p scorers w hen every su ccessive em ployer tries to hire
to p d o w n .59 A s th e sm art p eop le are hired and thereby rem oved from
th e ap p lic an t p o o l, th e valid ity o f a test for th ose still on th e jo b m ar
k et m ay c h a n g e b ecau se of, for exam p le, restrictio n o f range. T h e eco-
W hen Only the B e st Will D o
A se le ctio n ratio o f on e in fifty may seem unrealistic, and so it is for the

run-of-the-m ill job. B u t for the m ost com petitive jobs, m uch h igh er ratios,
up to o n e in several hundred, are com m on. C o n sid er the han dful o f new
o p e n in g s in top law firms or for internships in the m ost desirable research
h o sp ita ls or in the richest investm ent banking firms for w hich each years
n ew graduates are com peting. M any poten tial app lican ts select them selves
ou t o f the pool for those prized jobs, realizing that the op en in gs will be
filled by people with stronger credentials, but they m ust n everth eless be
reck o n ed as being part o f the app lican t pool in order to get a realistic
estim ate o f the im portance o f co gn itiv e ability. T h is is again the issue
exem p lified by the w eight o f offensive tackles, discussed earlier in the
ch apter.
T h e question arises w hether the em ployer gains m uch by a rigorous se
le c tio n process for ch oosin g am on g the people who actually do show up at
the jo b interview. A re n t they already so highly screened th at they are, in
effect, hom ogeneous? T h e answer is intim ately related to the size o f the
stak es. W h en the job is in a top W all Street firm, for ex am p le, the dollar
valu e o f output is so high th at the difference betw een a new hiree w ho is
two stan dard deviation s above the m ean and on e who is four stan d ard de
v ia tio n s above the m ean on any given predictor m easure ca n m ean a huge
e c o n o m ic difference, even though the inferior" ap p lican t is already far
into the top few centiles in ability.
n o m ic b e n e fit o f u sin g a test w ould th en d eclin e. B u t if te stin g tended

to p la c e th e sm artest p eo p le in the jo b s w here the te st-jo b c o rre latio n s
are larg e , the spread o f the p rod u ctiv ity d istrib u tio n s is bro ad , th e ab-
so lu te lev els o f ou tp u t valu e are h igh, and th e p ro p o rtio n s h ired are
sm a ll, th e benefits cou ld be huge, ev en if th e ec o n o m ic effects o f te st
in g th e last people in the p o o l are n egligible. In sh ort, figu rin g o u t th e
n e t e ffe c ts o f testin g or n o t testin g is n o sm all m atter. N o o n e h as yet
d o n e it conclusively.
W H Y P A R T I T I O N I N G IS I N E V I T A B L E
T o re c a p itu la te a co m p le x d iscussio n : P roficien cy in m o st c o m m o n

c iv ilia r i an d m ilitary o c c u p atio n s c an be p red icted by IQ , w ith a n over-
C h oosin g P o lice A p p lic an ts by IQ
A case study o f w hat h ap pen s w h en a p u b lic se rv ice is ab le to h ire from the

top down o n a test o f c o g n itiv e ability, d ra w in g o n a large a p p lic an t pool,
com es out o f N ew York C ity. In A p ril 1 9 3 9 , after a d e ca d e o f eco n o m ic de
pression, N ew York C ity a ttra c te d a lm o st 3 0 ,0 0 0 m e n to a w ritten and
physical ex am in atio n for 3 0 0 o p e n in g s in th e c ity s p olice force, a selec
tion ratio o f approxim ately o n e in a h u n d re d .57 T h e w ritten te st was sim i
lar to the in telligen ce test th e n b e in g g iv e n by th e federal civil service.
Positions were offered top d o w n fo r a c o m p o site score o n th e m ental and
physical tests, w ith the m e n ta l test m ore h e a v ily w eighted by m ore than
two to one. N o t everyone a cc e p te d th e offer, bu t, tim es b ein g w hat they
were, the 3 0 0 slots were filled by m e n w h o e a rn e d th e to p 3 5 0 scores. Inas
m uch as th e perform ance o f p o lic e officers h a s b een sh ow n to correlate sig
nificantly w ith scores on in te llig e n c e te sts,58 th is group o f m en sh ou ld have
m ade ou tstan d in g p olicem en . A n d they d id , a c h ie v in g ex trao rd in arily suc
cessful careers in and out o f p o lic in g . T h e y a tta in e d far h igh e r th an aver
age rank as p olice officers. O f th e en tire g ro u p , fou r h av e b een p olice chiefs,
four deputy com m issioners, tw o c h ie fs o f p e rso n n e l, o n e a c h ie f inspector,
and one becam e co m m issio n er o f th e N e w Y ork P o lice D ep artm en t. They
suffered far fewer disciplin ary p e n altie s, a n d they co n trib u te d significantly
to th e study and teach in g o f p o lic in g and law en fo rcem e n t. M an y also had
successful careers as lawyers, b u sin e ssm en , an d a c a d e m ic s after leaving the
police departm en t.
all v alid ity th at m ay c o n se rv a tiv e ly be p la c e d a t .4. T h e m ore d e m an d

ing a jo b is cogn itively, th e m o re p r e d ic tiv e p o w er su c h a test has, but
n o c o m m o n jo b is so u n d e m a n d in g t h a t th e te st to ta lly lacks pred ic
tiven ess. F o r th e jo b m a rk e t a s a w h o le , c o g n itiv e ab ility p red icts profi
cien cy b e tte r th an any o th e r k n o w n v a r ia b le d e sc rib in g a n in dividual,
in clu d in g e d u c a tio n a l le v e l. In te llig e n c e te sts are u su ally m ore pred ic
tive o f p ro ficien cy th an a re p a p e r -a n d -p e n c il te sts th a t a re specifically
b a sed o n a jo b s ac tiv itie s. F o r s e le c tin g la rg e n u m b e rs o f w orkers, there
m ay be so m e ad d ed p r e d ic tiv e p ow er, u su a lly sm a ll, w h e n a score o n a
narrow er te st o f p e rfo rm an c e is c o m b in e d w ith a n in te llig e n c e test. For
lo w -co m p lexity jo b s, a te st o f m o to r s k ill o fte n ad d s m ate rially to pre-
d ic tiv en ess. T h e p re d ic tiv e p o w er o f I Q d e riv e s fro m its load in g o n g,
in S p e a r m a n s sen se o f g e n e ra l in te llig e n c e .
If w e were w riting a m on ograp h for p erso n n el m an agers, th e appro-

p riate n e x t step w ould be to presen t a h an d b o o k o f tab les for c o m p u t
ing w h e n it m akes e c o n o m ic sense to test new a p p lic a n ts (ig n o rin g for
the m o m e n t legislative an d ju d ic ia l restriction s o n su ch te stin g ). S u c h
a c a lc u la tio n w ould be based on four variables: th e p re d ic tiv e pow er o f
the te st for the jo b a t h an d , the v a riatio n in w orker p ro d u c tiv ity for
the jo b a t h an d, the p ro p o rtio n o f jo b ap p lican ts th at are to b e selected ,
and th e co st o f testing, T h e co n clu sio n w ould o fte n be th at te stin g is
p ro fitab le. Even a m argin ally p red ictiv e test c a n be e c o n o m ic a lly im
p o rta n t if only a sm all fractio n o f ap p lic an ts is to be se le cte d . E v en a
m argin ally predictive test m ay h av e a tellin g e c o n o m ic im p a c t if the
v a ria tio n in p rod uctivity is wide. A n d for m ost o c c u p a tio n s, th e test is
m ore th a n m argin ally p red ictiv e. In the av erag e case, a test w ith a .4
validity, the em ployer w ho uses a c o g n itiv e test c ap tu re s 4 0 p e rc en t o f
the p ro fit th at w ould be realized from a p erfectly p re d ic tiv e te st n o
sm all ad v an tage. In a n era w hen a reliab le in te llig e n c e te st c a n be a d
m in istered in tw elve m inutes, the costs o f testin g c a n be low lower
in term s o f labor th an , for exam p le, c o n d u ctin g an in terview o r c h e c k
ing references.
W e are n ot w riting a m on ograp h for p erso n n el m an agers, how ever,
and th e m ain p oin t h as n o th in g to do w ith w h eth er o n e fav ors or o p
poses th e use o f tests as a h irin g d evice. T h e m a in p o in t is rath er th at
in telligen ce itself is im portantly related to jo b p erfo rm an ce . G etting rid
of intelligence tests in hiring as policy is trying to do will not get rid of the
importance of intelligence. T h e altern ativ es th a t em ploy ers h a v e av ailab le
to th em biograp h ical d ata, reference ch ecks, e d u c a tio n a l record , and
so fo rth are valid p red ictors o f jo b p erform an ce in p art b ecau se they
im perfectly reflect so m e th in g ab ou t the ap p lic an t's in te llig e n c e . E m
ployers w ho are forb id d en to o b tain test scores n o n e th e le ss striv e to o b
tain th e best possible work force, an d it so h ap p e n s th a t th e w ay to get
the b e st possible work force, o th er things eq u al, is to h ire th e sm artest
p eo p le th ey can find. It is n o t e v en n ecessary for em p loy ers to be aw are
th at in telligen ce is th e attribu te they are look in g for. A s em ployers
c h eck th eir h iring p roced ures ag ain st the q u ality o f th e ir e m p lo y ees and
refine th eir procedures accordin gly, the im p o rta n c e o f in te llig e n c e in
the se le c tio n process co n v erg es o n w h atever real im p o rtan ce it h as for
the jo b in question, w h eth er or n o t they use a fo rm al test.
B ecau se th e e c o n o m ic v a lu e o f th e ir e m p lo y e e s is lin k e d to in t e lli

gen ce, so u ltim a te ly a re th e ir w ag es. L e t us c o n sid e r th a t issu e in th e
n ex t ch ap ter, a lo n g w ith so m e o th e rs t h a t h a v e in te rlo c k in g im p lic a
tions as we try to fo re se e , h o w e v e r d im ly , w h at th e fu tu re h o ld s for th e
c o gn itiv e elite.
Chapter 4
Steeper Ladders, Narrower Gates
Cognitive partitioning through education am i occupations will con tin u e, and

there is not much that the government or anyone else can do about it. Eco-
ninnies will be the m ain reason. At the sam e time that elite colleges an d pro-
fessiom l schools are turning out brighter and brighter graduates, the value o f
intelligence in the marketplace is rising. W ages earned by people in high-IQ
occupations have pulled aw ay jrom the wages in low -lQ occupations, an d dif
ferences in education cannot explain ?nost o f this change.
Another jorce fo r cognitive partitioning is the increasing physical segrega
tion of tlw cognitive elite from the rest oj society. Members of the cognitive
elite work in jobs that usually keep them off the shop floor, away from the con
struction site, an d close to others who also tend to be smart. C om puters and
electronic com m unication make it increasingly likely that people who work
mainly ivith their minds colLiborate only with other such people. T he isolation
of the cognitive elite is compounded by its choices o f where to live, shop, play,
worship, and send its children to school.
Its isolation is intensified by an irony of a mobile and democratic society
like A m erica's. C ,'ognitive ability is a function o f both genes and en v iron m en t,
with implications for egalitarian social policies. The more ive succeed in giv
ing every youngster a chance to develop his or her latent cognitive ability, the
more we equalize the environmental sources of differences in intelligence.
The irony is that as America equalizes the circum stances of peoples lives,
the remaining differences in intelligence are increasingly determined by d if
ferences in genes. M eanwhile, high cognitive* ability m ean s, more than ever
before, that the chances of success in life are good and getting better all the
time. Putting it all together, success and failu re in the American economy,
and all that goes with it, are increasingly a matter of the genes that people
inherit.
Add to this the phenomenon known as assortative mating. Likes attract
when it com es to m arriage, arul intelligence is one of the most im portant of
those likes. W hen this propensity to m ate by JQ is combined with increasingly

efficient educational and occupational stratification, assortative mating by IQ
has more powerful effects on the next generation than it had on the previous
one. This process too seem s to be getting stronger, purt of the lirew creating
an A m erican class sy stem .
A
s M a e W e st said in a n o t h e r c o n t e x t , g o o d n e ss has n o th in g to do
with it. W e are n o t ta lk in g a b o u t what should h av e been but
w h a t h a s be e n . T h e e d u c a t io n a l sy stem does sort by c o g n itiv e ability
at the clo se o f the tw e n t ie th c e n tu r y in a way that it did not at the
o p e n i n g of the century. T h e u p p er strata ot in telligence arc being
su c k e d into a c o m p a r a tiv e ly few o c c u p a t i o n s in a way that they did not
used to be. C o g n i t i v e ab ility is im p o r ta n tly related to jo b productivity.
A ll o f th e se trends will c o n t i n u e u n d e r an y social policy. W e are o p
tim istic e n o u g h to b eliev e th a t n o a d m in istra tio n , Left or Right, is
g o in g to im p ed e the e d u c a t i o n of th e brightest, or forbid the brightest
from e n te r in g the m ost c o g n i t iv e ly d e m a n d in g o c c u p a tio n s, or find
a way to k e e p em p lo y ers from re w a r d in g productivity. But we are
n o t so o p tim istic th at we c a n o v e r lo o k dark sh a d o w s a c c o m p a n y in g
the trends.
To this p o in t, we h a v e a v o i d e d say in g what social c o n se q u e n c e s
m ig h t be e x p e c te d . T h i s o m is s i o n h a s b e e n d eliberate, for part of a c a n
did answ er m u st be, W e a r e n t s u re . W e c a n be sure only that the trends
are im p o rta n t. C o g n i t i v e str a t ifi c a t io n as a c en tral social process is
s o m e t h i n g g e n u in e ly new u n d e r th e sun. O n e of our purposes is to bring
it to pu blic a tt e n tio n , h o p e fu l t h a t w isd o m will c o m e from en c o u ra g in g
m o re p e o p le to th in k a b o u t it.
It is im p o ssib le to p red ic t all th e ways in w h ich c o g n itiv e strati
fic a tio n will in teract w ith the w o rk in g s of an A m e r i c a n d em o c ra c y that
is in flux. W e d o h a v e so m e th o u g h t s on the matter, however, a n d in
this c h a p t e r use the a v a il a b le sc ie n tific d a ta to p eer in to the future. T h e
d a t a c e n te r o n the d y n a m ic s t h a t will m a k e c o g n itiv e stratificatio n m ore
p r o n o u n c e d in the years to c o m e the d ifferen ces greater, the o v e r
lap sm aller, the s e p a ra t io n wider. W e reserv e our larger sp e c u latio n s
a b o u t the so cial c o n s e q u e n c e s tor C h a p t e r s 21 an d 22.
Steeper Ladders, N am w er (la w s 93
T H E C H A N G I N G M A R K E T F O R A B IL IT Y
T h e ov errid ing d y n a m ic that will sh ap e the effects of c o g n itiv e s t r a t if i

cation is the in cr e asin g value of in telligen c e in the m ark etp la c e. T h e
smart on es are n o t only being recruited to c o lleg e more efficiently, th ey
are not only (o n av erage) m ore p ro d u c tiv e in the workplace, th eir d o l
lar value to em p lo y ers is in creasin g and there is every reason to b e lie v e
that this trend will c o n tin u e. A s it d o e s so, the ec on o m ic g a p s e p a r a t
ing the upper c o g n i tiv e classes from th e rest of society will in crease.
T h e general s h a p e of what h as been h a p p e n in g is shown in the f i g
ure for a r e p re se n ta tiv e h igh -IQ o c c u p a tio n , engineering, c o m p a r e d to
the av erage m a n u fa c tu rin g em ployee, sta r t in g back in 1932. A s alw ays,
dollar figures are expressed in 1990 dollars. T h e 1950s turn o u t to h a v e
been the d e c a d e of h id d e n revo lution tor in co m e, just as it w as for e d
ucation a n d status. T h r o u g h o u t the 1 930s a n d 1940s, the av e rag e e n g i
neer and the a v e ra g e m anufacturing e m p lo y e e rem ained in rou gh ly a
c onstant e c o n o m i c relationsh ip, even c o n v e rg in g slightly. T h e n from
E n g in e e r s s a la r ie s a s a n e x a m p le o f h ow in te llig e n c e
b e c a m e m u ch m o re v a lu a b le in the 1 9 5 0 s
Annual salary in 1990 dollars

$ 8 0 .(XX)
$ 7 0 .(XX) ... 1953 -6 0

$6(>.<XX)
/.
$ 5 0 ,0 0 0 4
/ Engineers
0O& XX* )^ ^ 0 c)0 0 (-x )0 o o
Manufacturing e m p l o y e e s
$0-
1930 1938 1946 1954 1962 1970 1978 1986
.Smote'. U .S. Bureau of the C ensu s 1975, Tables 0 8 0 2 - 8 1 0 , 091 V92t>; Bureau ot Labor Sta-
tisrics 1980, Tables 80, 106.
W ere th e 1 9 8 0 s G o o d o r B a d for In com e?
T here are half a dozen different wavs to view the economy during the
1980s. Because most of it fell in R o n a ld Reagan's presidency, an intense
po litica l struggle to characterize the decade as econom ically "good" or
had" has ensued. T he m a in source of contusion lies in the distinction be
tween household income, w h ic h went up for all income groups, driven hy
the increase in two-income families and low unem ploym ent, and real
wages, w h ic h (generally) rose for white-collar workers and tell tor hlue-col-
lar workers. There are also contusions that arise because the value of b e n
efit. packages rose even though cash wages did not and because of
controversies over the proper calculation of changes in real purchasing
power. W e w ill not try to adjudicate these issues or the role that President
Reagan's econom ic policies played, w hich have taken whole hooks to ar
gue out.
1953 to 1961 the a v e r a g e e n g i n e e r s salary nearly d o ubled while the

m a n u fa c tu r i n g e m p l o y e e s salary followed the sam e gradually rising
trend an d in creased hy o n ly 2 0 perc en t. By the end of th e 1980s, the a v
erag e m a n u fa c tu r in g e m p l o y e e h ad to get by on ab out $2 5,000 a year
w h ile the e n g in e e r m a d e a n av e rag e of $ 72 ,0 0 0 . T h e differen ce in then-
p u r c h a s in g p ow er had tripled sin ce the 1940s, which is en o u gh to put
th e m in se p a r a t e e c o n o m i c brackets.
T h e c o m p a r is o n b e tw e e n e n g in e e r s an d m anufacturing e m p lo y ees is
a m ic r o c o s m of w h at h a s h a p p e n e d generally to A m e r i c a n workers. U s
in g d a ta from the C u r r e n t P o p u la tio n Surveys, ec o n o m ists L aw ren ce
K atz a n d K e v in Murphy, a m o n g others, h a v e established that from 196 ^
to 1987, m a le w ork ers m a k i n g the h igh e st 10 percent o f wages en joyed
a rise of ab o u t 4 0 p e r c e n t, w hile th e real wages of those at the c o rre
sp o n d in g low e n d were c lo se to s t a t i c . 1
W e o p e n e d the c h a p t e r by assertin g that cognitive ability has b e e n a
key fa c to r in this process. N e x t we look at the reasons for this c o n c l u
sio n .
T h e Role o f E d u c atio n
T h e sta n d a r d way o f in te rp re tin g th e figure for e ngineers and m a n u f a c

tu rin g is t o talk a b o u t e d u c a t io n . D u rin g the last quarter-century, real
w a g e s rose m o re t h a n tw ice a s m u c h for workers with c ollege e d u c a tio n s
Steeper IjMlders, Nmrower (ja te s 95
than for those with h igh school or less.121T ren d s were n o t u n i n t e r r u p t e d

within th e interval. Follow ing the huge e x p a n s i o n o f th e p o s t - W o r l d
W ar II colleg e p o p u la tio n , it seem ed tor a w hile th a t th e e c o n o m i c hen-
eiits of e d u c a t io n were being sw am p ed by oversupply, a s w a g e s tell dur-
ing the 1970s for college-ed u ca ted p e o p l e . But in the 1 9 8 0 s , the tre n d
reversed. R eal w ages for highly ed u cated p e o p le s t a r t e d o n c e a g a i n to
c lim b and wages fell for those with twelve o r fewer y ears of s c h o o l i n g - 141
T h e tab le below gives the p erc en tage c h a n g e in re a l w a g e s for fu ll
time m ale w orkers1' 1 at three ed u c atio n al levels d u r in g the 1 9 8 0 s, b r o
ken out by w h e th e r they are new workers ( o n e to five or rw e n ty -six to
thirty-five years o f work e x p erien ce). T h e d ram atic c h a n g e s o c c u r r e d
E d u c a tio n , E x p e rie n c e , an d W ag e s, 1 9 7 9 1 9 8 7
P e rc e n ta g e C h a n g e
in W ages
New workers ( 1 - 5 years uj experience)
Less than 12 years of school -1 5.8
H igh school degree -19.8
16 or more years of school + 10.8
Old workers (2 6 - 3 5 years of experience)

Less rhan 12 years of school -1.9
H igh school degree 2.8
16 or more years of school + 1.8
Source: A d ap ted tnim Katz and Murphy, 19l)C, Table I.
am o n g y oun g m e n ju st c o m in g in to the labor m ark et. H ig h s c h o o l g r a d

uates and d ro p o u ts saw their real wages plunge, w h ile y o u n g m e n w ith
college e d u c a tio n s en joyed a health y in crease.11'1 M e a n w h i l e , e x p e r i
en c ed old er m e n saw little real c h a n g e in in c o m e w h a t e v e r th eir level
of ed u catio n . W h y the difference be tw e e n the a g e groups.'1 ln rerp re-
tively, wages for m e n with m any years o f e x p e r ie n c e refle c t their w ork
history as well as th eir im m ed iate e c o n o m ic v alue. W a g e s tor p e o p l e just
entering the labor force are m ore purely an e x p r e ssio n o f p r e v a i l in g m a r
ket forces. T h e jo b m arket reevalu ated s c h o o lin g d u r in g t h e p a s t tw o
decades: E d u c a te d workers, h a v in g b e e n d e v a lu e d in t h e 1 9 7 0 s, b e c a m e
increasingly v a lu a b le in the 1980s, in c o m p a r is o n w ith less e d u c a t e d
workers.1' 1
96 The Emergence of a Cognitive* Elite
W h y h a v e the e c o n o m i c returns to ed u c atio n lately risen, thereby

w id e n in g th e in c o m e g a p b etw een the ed ucated and the u n e d u c ate d ?
P erh a p s, say so m e c o m m e n t a t o r s , the wage inequality p roblem is t e c h
n o lo g ic a l, as m a c h i n e s d isp la c e people from low-skill jobs. Perhaps
s c h o o l s are failin g to reac h p e o p le skills that they used to teac h , or m aybe
th e s c h o o l s are d o i n g as well as ever but the blue-collar jo b s th at require
on ly low -level skills are e m ig ra tin g to countries where labor is cheaper,
th ereb y c r e a t i n g a n o v e rsu p p ly of less educated workers in A m e r ic a . Per
h a p s the w elfare system is e r o d in g the need to work a m o n g the low-skill
p o p u la t io n , or the w e a k e n in g labor unions are not p ro tec tin g their e c o
n o m i c in terests, or a d e c li n in g real m inim um wage is letting the wage
stru c tu re sa g at the low end.
T h e s e p ossib ilities all b e a r on a crucial issue: How much good would it
do to improve education fo r the people earning low w ages If so m e h o w the
g o v e r n m e n t c a n c a jo le or e n ti c e youths to stay in sch ool tor a few e x
tra years, will th eir e c o n o m i c d isadv an tag e in the new labor m arket go
aw a y? W e d o u b t it. T h e i r d isa d v a n ta g e m ight be d im in ish ed , but only
m odestly. T h e r e is re a so n to think that the jo b marker has b e e n re
w ard in g n o t ju st e d u c a t io n but in telligence.'
T h e M y sterio u s R esid u al
T h e in d isp e n sa b le d a t a b a s e for analyzing wages over rime is the C u r

re n t P o p u la tio n S u rvey, th e m onth ly nation al survey c o n d u c te d by ih e
B u r e a u o f th e C e n s u s a n d th e Bureau of L abor S tatistics, w hich asks p e o
p le on ly a b o u t their years of education, not their IQs. Rut .is the s o
p h is ti c a te d statistica l an a ly s e s of wage variation h a v e a c c u m u la te d ,
e x p e r ts h a v e c o m e to ag ree that som eth in g beyond ed u c a tio n , gender,
a n d e x p e r ie n c e h as been at work to increase in co m e disparities in re
c e n t tim es. * T h e sp read in real wages grew between 196 3 and 1987 ev en
after ta k in g those o th e r fa c to rs into a c c o u n t.11"1T h e e c o n o m i c term tor
this u n e x p l a in e d v a r ia t io n in wages is the residual.1" 1
T o u n d e rsta n d the g ro w in g wage inequality requires an a c c o u n t
of this residual v a ria tio n . R esid u al wage variation for both m en and
w o m e n started rising in a b o u t 1970 and seem s still to he rising. A m o n g
e c o n o m i s t s , there is a c o n s e n s u s that, whatever those residual c h a r a c
teristics c o n s i s t of, it h as b e e n mainly the demaiid for th em , not their
supply, t h a t h a s b e e n c h a n g i n g and causing in creasing wage inequality
for a g e n e r a tio n , with n o sig n s of ab atin g .1' D espite the public focus on
Steeper Ladders, Narrower G ates 97
the in creasin g im p o rta n c e o f ed u c a tio n in t h e w orkplace, m o s t o f th e

in creasing wage in equality during the p ast t w o a n d a half d e c a d e s is d u e
to c h a n g e s in the d e m a n d for the residual c h a r a c te r istic s o f w o rk e rs
rather th a n to c h a n g e s in the d e m a n d for e d u c a t i o n or e x p e r i e n c e . 11 T h e
job m arket for p e o p le lacking the residual c h a r a c te r is tic s d e c lin e d , w h ile
e x p a n d in g for p e o p le h a v in g them .
The C a s e fo r I Q as the R esidual
W h at th en is th is residual, this X factor, th a t in creasin gly c o m m a n d s a

wage p rem ium o v e r and ab ove ed u c atio n ? It c o u ld he a variety of f a c
tors. It: c ou ld be roo ted in diligence, a m b i tio n , or sociability.|HI It c o u l d
be a sso ciated w ith different industries or d iffe re n t firms w ith in i n d u s
tries, or different wage norm s (e.g., r e g io n a l va riatio n s, v a r ia t io n s in
merit pay), a g a in insofar as they are n o t a c c o u n t e d for hy the m e a s u r e d
variables. O r it could be c o g n itiv e ability. C o n c l u s i v e e v i d e n c e is h a rd
to c o m e by, but readers will not be surprised to learn that we b e lie v e
that it in cludes c o g n itiv e ability. T h e r e are se v e ra l lines ot su p p o rt for
this hypothesis.
A s a first cut at the problem , the changing; w ages h a v e s o m e t h i n g to
do with the shifting o c c u p a tio n a l structure o f our econom y. I ligh -sta-
tus, and therefore relatively high-payin g, j o b s are tipped tow ard p e o p le
with high in tellig en c e, as C h a p t e r 2 show ed. A s the high -en d jo b s h a v e
becom e m ore n u m ero u s, d e m a n d m ust rise fo r the in tellec tu al a b ilitie s
that they require. W h e n d e m a n d rises for a n y go o d , in clu d in g i n t e ll i
gence, the price (in this case, the wages) g o e s up. Purely on e c o n o m i c
grounds, th en , wage inequality grew as the e c o n o m i c d e m a n d for i n t e l
ligence c lim b ed .
W e further k n o w from the d a ta discu ssed in C h a p t e r 3 t h a t c o g n i
tive ability affects how well workers at all l e v e ls d o their jobs. It s m a r te r
workers are, o n average, better workers, th e r e is reason to b e l ie v e
that in co m e w ith in jo b c ateg ories may b e c o rre late d w ith in t e l l i
gence.
Still furrher, we know that the c o rre la tio n b e tw e e n in t e llig e n c e a n d
in co m e is no t m u c h d im in ish ed hy p a rria lin g out the c o n t r i b u t i o n s ot
ed ucatio n , work ex p e rie n ce , marital status, a n d o th e r d e m o g r a p h ic v a r i
ab le s.1' S u c h a fin d in g stren g th en s the idea t h a t the jo b m arket is i n
creasingly rew arding n o t just e d u c a tio n but in te llig e n c e .
Finally, M c K in l e y B la c k b u rn an d D a v id N e u m a r k h a v e p r o v i d e d
d ire c t e v i d e n c e in their a n a ly s is of white m en in the N a t io n a l L o n g i t u

d in a l S u r v e y of Y outh ( N L S Y ) . E d u c a tio n and in telligence e a c h c o n
trib u te d to a w o rk e rs in c o m e , but the sm art m en earned m ost o f the
e x tr a w age b en e fit of e d u c a t i o n d u rin g the past d e c a d e ."'1T h e growing
e c o n o m i c b e n e fits of e ith e r s c h o o l i n g or in telligence are d isp ro p o r
tio n a t e ly e m b o d ie d in the risin g in co m e o f educated p eop le with high
test sc o res a n d in th e fallin g w ag es earn ed by less educated p eop le with
low sc o r e s.'1,1
T h i s p r e m iu m for IQ a p p lie s e v e n within the h igh -IQ o c c u p a tio n s
t h a t w e d isc u ssed in C h a p t e r 2. In the N L S Y , am o n g people h o ld in g one
of th e se jo b s, the 1 9 8 9 w eekly e arn in g s (expressed in 1990 dollars) of
th o se in the t o p 10 p e rc e n t of I Q were $ 9 7 7 , com pared to $ 6 9 7 for those
w ith IQ s b elo w the to p 10 p e r c e n t, for an annual in co m e differen ce of
o v e r $ 1 4 , 0 0 0 . llM E v e n after e x t r a c t i n g any effects o f their specific o c c u
p a t i o n s (as well as o f the d ifferin g in co m es of m en and w o m e n ), being
in th e top 10 p erc en t in I Q was still worth over $ 1 1 ,0 0 0 in in co m e for
th o se in this c o lle c tio n o f p re stig io u s occup atio ns.
W hy C o g n itiv e A bility H a s B e c o m e M ore V aluable to Em ployers
T h i s brings us as far as the d a t a o n in co m e and in telligence go. Before

le a v in g the topic, we offer se v e ra l reasons why the wage p rem iu m for
in te llig e n c e m ig h t h a v e in c r e a se d recently and may be e x p ec ted to c o n
tin u e to increase.
P e rh a p s m o s t o b v io u sly is th a t technology h as in creased the e c o
n o m i c v a lu e of in tellig en c e. A s rob ots replace factory workers, the fa c
tory w o rk ers jo b s v a n ish , b u t n e w jo b s pop up for people who c a n design,
p ro g ra m , a n d repair robots. T h e new jobs are not necessarily g o in g to
be filled by the s a m e p e o p le , tor th ey require more in telligence th an the
o ld o n e s did. T o d a y s t e c h n o l o g i c a l frontier is more c o m p le x th an yes
te r d a y s. E v e n in tra d itio n a l in du stries like retailing, b a n k in g , m ining,
m a n u fa c tu r in g , an d fa rm in g , m a n a g e m e n t gets ever m ore c o m p le x . T h e
c a p a c i t y to u n d e rsta n d an d m a n i p u l a te com plexity, as earlier ch ap ters
sh o w e d , is a p p r o x i m a t e d by g, or gen era l intelligence. We w ould h av e
p re d ic te d t h a t a m ark et e c o n o m y , faced w ith this turn o f even ts, would
s o o n p u t in te llig e n c e o n t h e s a le s block. It has. Business c o n su lta n c y is
a n e w p ro fe ssio n th at is s o a k i n g up a grow ing fraction o f the graduates
o f th e elite b usin ess s c h o o ls. T h e c o n su lta n ts sell mainly their trained
in te ll i g e n c e to the b u sin e sse s p a y in g their huge fees.
Steeper Ladders, Nanow er Gates 99
A secon d reaso n in volves the effects o f scale, spurred by the growth

in the size of c o rp o ra tio n s and m arkets sin ce W o rld W ar 11. A person
who c a n d ream u p a sales c a m p a ig n worth a n o th e r p ercentage point or
two of m arket sh are will he sought after. W h a t s o u g h t after m eans in
dollars and c en ts d e p e n d s on what a p oint of m a rk e t share is worth. If
it is worth $ 5 0 0 , 0 0 0 , the m arket for his servic es wil I produce on e range
of salaries. If a p o i n t o f m arket share is w orth $5 m illion, he is much
more valuable. If a p o in t of m arket share is w orth $ 1 0 0 million, he is
worth a fortune. N o w con sid er th at since just 1960, the average annual
sales, per c o rp o ra tio n , of A m e r i c a s five hu n d red largest industrial c o r
porations h a s ju m p e d from $ 1 .8 billion to $ 4 .6 billion (both figures in
1990 dollars). T h e sam e gigantism has affected the value o f everything
from the ability to float successful bond offerings to the ability to n e g o
tiate the best prices for volum e p urchases by hu ge retail d rain s. T h e
m agnitude of the e c o n o m ic c o n se q u e n c e s of o rd in ary business tran sac
tions has m u sh ro o m e d , and with it the value of p eo p le who can do their
work at a m argin ally higher level o f skill. A ll th e ev id e n c e we have sug
gests that su c h p e o p le h av e, a m o n g their o th e r characteristics, high in
telligence. T h e r e is n o reason to think that th is process will stop soon.
T h e n th ere are the effects o f legislation a n d regulation. W hy are c er
tain kinds o f lawyers w h o never see the in side of a courtroom able to
c o m m a n d such large fees? In m any cases, becau se a first-rate lawyer can
m ake a difference worth tens of m illions of dollars in getting a favorable
d ecision from a g o v e r n m e n t ag en cy or s lip p in g through a tax loophole.
Lawyers are not the on ly beneficiaries. A s the rules of the gam e g o v
erning private e n terp rise becom e ever m ore labyrinthine, intelligence
grows in value, so m e tim e s in the m ost surprising places. O n e o f our c o l
leagues is a social p sych olog ist who su p p lem en ts his university salary by
serving as a n ad viser o n jury selection , at a c o n su ltin g lee of several th o u
sand dollars per day. Rased on his track record, h is ad v ic e raises the p ro b
ability of a fa v o rab le verdict in a liability or p a te n t dispute by about 5
to 10 p ercent. W h e n a verdict m ay represent a sw ing of $ 1 0 0 million,
an edge o f that size m ak e s h im well worth his large fee.
W e h av e not e x h a u ste d all the reasons that c og n itiv e ability is
b e c o m in g m ore v a lu a b le in the labor m arket, but these will serve to
illustrate th e th em e: T h e m ore c o m p le x a society becom es, the more
valuable are the p e o p le who are especially g o o d at dealing with c o m
plexity. Barring a c h a n g e in d irection, the future is likely to see the rules
for d o i n g business b e c o m e yet m ore com plex, to see reg u latio n extend
still further, an d to raise still higher the stakes tor h a v in g a h igh IQ.
T h e E n d R esu lt: Prosperity fo r Those Lucky Enough to B e Intelligent
A fte r all that h as gon e before, it will c om e as no surprise to find that

sm art p e o p le tend to h av e high in comes. T h e a d v a n ta g e enjoyed by
those w h o h a v e high en o u gh IQs to get into the h ig h - IQ o c c u p a tio n s
is sh o w n in the figure below. All of the h ig h -IQ o c c u p a tio n s h a v e m e
d ia n w ages well out on the right-hand side of the d istrib u tio n .11,1 T h o s e
T h e h ig h -IQ o c c u p a tio n s also are w ell-paid o c c u p a tio n s
T h e R e ce n t A m eric an W a g e D istrib u tion
A eeountiints
S o c ia l scien tists
N atural scien tists
M ath em atician s & co m p u te r sc ie n tists
teach ers
arch itects
P h y sic ian s
A ttorn ey s
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200

M e d ia n w eek ly w a g e , in 1990 $
Source; U.S. D epartm ent of Lahor 1SW1.
in the to p range of IQ h ad in co m es that were c o n sp icu o u sly a b o v e those

w ith lower IQ s even w ithin the h igh - IQ occup atio ns. T h e overall m e
d ia n fam ily in co m e with a m em b er in o n e of these o c c u p a tio n s and with
an IQ in the top 10 p erc en t was $ 6 1 ,1 0 0 , p uttin g th em at the 8 4 th per
c en tile of family in co m es for their age group. T h e s e fortu n ate people
were newly out of grad uate sc h o o l or law school or m e d ic a l sch ool, still
n ea r th e b o tto m of their earn ings trajectory as of their early thirties,
w h erea s a large p rop ortion o f those who had gone into b lue-collar jobs
(d isp ro p o rtio n a tely in the lower IQ deciles) h av e m uch less room to ad-
Steeper Ladders, Narrower G ates 101
Incom e as a Fam ily T rait
A meric;] has taken great pride in the mobility o f generations: enterprising

children of poor families are supposed to do better than their parents, and
the wastrel children of the rich are supposed to fritter away the family for-
tune. But in m odem America, this mobility has its limits. T he experts now
believe that the correlation between fathers and sons' income is at least
.4 and perhaps closer to .5.1211Think of it this way: T h e son of a father whose
earnings are in the bottom 5 percent of the distribution has something like
one chance in twenty (or less) o f rising to the top fifth of the income d is
tribution and almost a fifty-fifty chance of staying in the bottom fifth. He
has less than one chance in four o f rising above even the median income.22
Economists search for explanations of this phenomenon in structural fe a
tures of the economy. We add the element o f intellectual stratification.
Most people at present are stuck near where their parents were on the in
come distribution in part because IQ, which has become a major predic
tor of income, passes on sufficiently from one generation to the next to
constrain economic mobility.
v a n c e beyo n d th is a g e .101 In o th e r w ords, t h e o c c u p atio n al e lite is p ros-

perous. W ith in it, th e c o g n itiv e elite is m o re p rosp erou s still.
C O G N IT IV E S O R T IN G T H R O U G H P H Y S IC A L S E P A R A T IO N
T h e effects o f c o g n itiv e so rtin g in e d u c a tio n an d o c c u p a tio n are re ifie d

th rough geograph y. P eo p le w ith sim ilar c o g n itiv e skills are p u t to g e th e r
in the w o rk p lac e an d in n e ig h b o rh o o d s.
Cognitive S egregation in the W orkplace
T h e h igh er th e level of c o g n itiv e a b ility a n d th e g reater t h e d e g re e o f

h o m o gen eity a m o n g p eo p le in v o lv ed in th a t lin e o f w ork, th e g re a te r is
th e d egree o f se p a ra tio n o f the c o g n itiv e e lite from e v e ry o n e else. F irst,
co n sid er a w o rk p lac e w ith a c o m p a ra tiv e ly low level o f c o g n itiv e h o
m o g en eity a n in d u strial p lan t. In th e p h y sic a l co n fin e s o f th e p la n t,
all kin d s o f a b ilitie s are b ein g c a lle d u p o n : en g in eers an d m a c h in is ts ,
electrician s and pipefitters a n d sweepers, fo rem en and shift supervisors,

and the workers o n the lo ad in g dock. T h e shift supervisors and e n g i
neers may h a v e offices that giv e them som e physical sep aratio n from the
plant floor, hut, as m anufacturers h av e c o m e to realize in recen t years,
they h ad b e tte r n o t spend all their time in those offices. Efficient and
profitable p ro d u c tio n requires no t only th at very different tasks he ac-
c o m p lish e d , using people o f every level of c o g n itiv e ability, but that they
be a c c o m p lish e d cooperatively. If the m anufactu ring c o m p a n y is pros-
pering, it is likely that a fair a m o u n t of daily interm ingling o f co g n itiv e
classes goes on in the plant.
N o w we m ove across the street to the c o m p a n y s office building. H ere
the av e rag e level o f in telligen ce is higher and the spread is narrower.
O nly a h an d fu l o f jobs, such as janitor, can be perform ed by p eo p le with
low c o g n itiv e ability. A n u m b er o f jobs c a n be d on e by p eo p le o f a v e r
age ability d ata entry clerks, for exam p le. S o m e jobs that c a n be d o n e
adequately by people with average co g n itiv e ability turn in to virtually
a different, an d m u ch m ore im portant, sort of jo b i( d o n e superbly. T h e
job of secretary is the classic exam p le. T h e traditional e x e c u tiv e se c re
tary, rising through the secretarial ranks until she takes c h arg e o f the
bosss office, was o n c e a fam iliar career path for a really c a p a b le , n o d ou b t
smart, w om an . For still o th e r jobs, cog n itiv e ability is im p o rta n t hut less
im portant th an oth e r ta le n ts am o n g the sales rep resen tativ es, tor
exam ple. A n d finally there is a layer o f jo b s am o n g the sen ior e x e c u
tives and in the R & D d e p a rtm e n t for w hich co g n itiv e ability is im
p ortant a n d where the m e a n IQ had better be high if the c o m p a n y
is to survive and grow in a c o m p etitiv e industry. In the office building,
not only c o g n itiv e h o m o g e n e ity has increased; so has physical se p a ra
tion. T h e e x e c u tiv e s do n o t spend m uch time with th e ja n ito rs or the
data entry clerks. T h e y sp e n d alm ost all their time in terac tin g with
other e x e c u tiv e s or with tec h n ica l specialists, w hich m e a n s with
p eop le d raw n from the upper portion o f the ability distribution.
A l t h o u g h corporate offices are more stratified for in tellig en c e th a n
the m a n u fa c tu r in g plant, so m e workplaces are e v e n m ore stratified. L e t s
m ove across tow n to a law firm. O n c e again, the m ean IQ rises a n d the
standard d e v i a t io n narrows. N o w there are only a few jo b c a te g o r ie s
for p ra c tic a l purposes, three: secretaries, paralegals or o th e r form s o f le
gal assistan ts, an d the attorneys. T h e lowest categories, secretarial and
p aralegal work, require at least average c o g n itiv e skills for basic c o m
peten c e, con sid erab ly m ore t h a n th at if their jo b s are to be d o n e as well
Steeper Ladders, Narrower Gates 10^
as they c o u ld be. T h e attorneys th e m se lv e s are likely to be, virtu ally

without e x c e p t io n , at least a stan dard d e v i a t i o n a b o v e the m e a n , if o n ly
b ecause of the s e le c t io n procedures in th e law s c h o o l s th at e n a b le d t h e m
to becom e lawyers in the first place. It r e m a in s true th a t p art of the s u c
cess o f the law firm d ep e n d s on q u alities th at are o n ly slightly related to
c ognitive skills the social skills in v o lv e d in g e ttin g n e w business, for
exam ple. A n d atto rn e y s in a lm o st any law firm c a n be fou n d s h a k in g
their heads over the highly paid (a n d sm a r t) p a r t n e r w ho is c o a s t in g o n
his su b o rd in a te s talents. But the o v erall d e g re e o f c o g n itiv e s t r a t if i c a
tion in a g o o d law firm is extrem ely high. A n d n o te an im p o rta n t d i s
tinction: It is n o t th at stratifica tio n within t h e law firm is h ig h ; rather,
the entire w ork p lac e represents a stratu m h igh ly a ty p ic a l of c o g n i t iv e
ability in the p o p u la tio n at large.
T h e s e rarefied e n v iro n m e n ts are b e c o m i n g m o re c o m m o n b e c a u se
the jobs t h a t m o st d e m a n d in te llig e n c e are in c r e a sin g in n u m b e r a n d
e c o n o m ic im p o rta n c e. T h e s e are jo b s that m a y be c o n d u c te d in c l o i s
tered settings in the c o m p a n y of o th e r s m a r t workers. T h e brightest
lawyers a n d b a n k ers in creasingly work aw ay fro m the c o u r tr o o m and th e
bank floor, away from all e x c e p t the m o st h a n d p ic k e d of c o rp o r a te
clients. T h e brigh test en gineers in cr e asin gly work o n p ro b le m s t h a t
never require t h e m to visit a c o n str u c tio n s it e or a sh o p floor. T h e y c a n
query their c o m p u te r s to get the answ ers th e y need. T h e brightest p u b
lic policy sp e c ialists sh uttle a m o n g th in k ta n k s , b u rea u cra c ies, an d g r a d
uate sc h o o ls o f p u b lic policy, n e v e r h a v in g t o e n c o u n te r an an gry voter.
T h e brightest youn gsters lau n ch their c a r e e r s in bu sin ess by g e ttin g a n
M .R .A . from a to p business sc h o o l, th e n c e to c lim b the c o rp o ra te l a d
der w ith ou t ever h a v in g had to sell soa p or w h a t e v e r to the c o m p a n y s
actual cu sto m ers. In eac h e x a m p le , a sp e c ializ e d p ro fessio n w ith in th e
profession is d e v e lo p in g that looks m o re a n d m ore like a c a d e m i a in the
way it recruits, insulates, an d iso lates m e m h e rs o f the c o g n i t iv e e lite.
R esidential Segregation
A s so o n as a to w n grows larger t h a n a few d ozen h o u s e h o ld s in size, it

starts to d e v e l o p neigh b o rh o o d s. A s t o w n s b e c o m e cities, th is t e n d e n c y
b ec om es a reliable law o f h u m a n c o m m u n i t ie s . P e o p le seek out c o m
fortable n e i g h b o r h o o d s they c a n afford. For so m e p e o p le , this will m e a n
looking for a p a rtic u la r kind of setting. P a re n ts w ith youn g c h il d r e n t y p
ically w an t parks, g o o d schools, a n d n e i g h b o r s w ith y o u n g c h ild re n . S i n
gle p e o p le in their tw e n tie s a n d thirties m ak in g good m oney ofte n g ra v

ita te tow ard u p sc a le u rb a n n e ig h b o rh o o d s with lots of p la ces to go and
th in g s to do.
T h e result is to p ro d u c e n e ig h b o rh o o d s with a high level ot s o c i o
e c o n o m i c p a r titio n in g . T h e factory worker seldom lives n e x t d o o r to
th e e x e c u t iv e , a n d this was as true in 1 9 0 0 as in the last years of the
century. T h e w e a lth y p e o p le h av e always been the most m obile. But in
th e late tw e n t ie th century, the most m obile people are increasingly
d ra w n from th e c o g n i tiv e elite. In th in kin g about these c h an g es, we will
fo c u s o n th eir im p lic a tio n s for the way th at the children of the c o g n i
tiv e e lite are raised, for th e re in lies on e of the m ain p oten tial sources of
tro ub le.
First, the u rb a n iz atio n of the n ation has m eant that a m uch sm aller
p r o p o r tio n o f the p o p u la t io n grows up in places where s o c io e c o n o m ic
m ix in g o c c u r s naturally. G i v e n a sm all enough town, there are nor
e n o u g h e le m e n t a r y s c h o o l s to segregate the children efficiently. T h e
c h il d r e n of th e local u p p er crust may live on the street with the large
h o u se s, but th e re are n o t e n o u g h of th em to fill up a w hole sch ool. A f
ter e l e m e n t a r y s c h o o l, every child in the town goes to the sam e m iddle
s c h o o l an d h ig h sc h o o l. S u c h towns now constitute a sh rin kin g p ro
p o r t i o n of the p o p u la tio n , however. A s o f 1990, 78 percent of the o v e r
all p o p u la t io n lived in m e tro p o lita n areas.
C o g n i t i v e se g re g a tio n is also bein g intensified by failures ot g o v
e r n m e n t in large cities. A s urban school systems d eteriorate, p eop le
w ith m o n e y r e lo c a te to rich suburbs b ecause that is where the good
p u b lic s c h o o l system s are; if they rem ain in the city, they send their
c h il d r e n to p riv ate s c h o o ls, which are even more h o m o g en eo u s.
A s c r im e rate s rise, p e o p le with m oney relocate to suburbs where the
c r im e rates are low, o r th e y c o n c e n tr ate ever more densely w'ithin
the safer parrs o f the city. A s urban tax rates rise, the m id d le class
flees, l e a v i n g b e h in d e v e n m ore starkly segregated poles of rich and
poor.
B r ig h t w o rk in g - c la ss youngsters m ix w ith children o f every other
lev el o f ab ility in e l e m e n t a r y school, hut they are increasingly likely to
be d ra w n aw a y to the m o r e in tellectually h o m o g e n e o u s h igh sch ool
co u rse s, t h e n c e to co lle g e . M u c h o f the co g n itiv e talent th at used to he
in th e w o rk in g -class n e ig h b o r h o o d is b ein g whisked up an d out o f the
c o m m u n i t y th ro u g h a n e d u c a tio n a l system that is increasingly driven
by a c a d e m i c p e r fo rm a n c e . B e c a u se of residential segregation, the c h i l
Steeper luulders, Narrower Gates 105
dren ot lawyers, p h y sician s, c o lle g e professors, engineers, an d b u sin ess

execu tives tend to go to sch ools with e a c h o t h e r s c h ild re n , an d seld o m
with the c h ild re n of c a b drivers or assem b ly -lin e workers, let a lo n e w ith
the c h ild ren of welfare recipients or the c h ro n ic a lly u n e m p lo y e d , T h e y
may nev er g o to s c h o o l with child ren rep re se n ta tiv e of the w hole ran g e
o f co gn itiv e ability. T h i s tendency is e x a c e rb a te d by a n o t h e r force w o r k
ing in the b a ck g ro u n d , genes.
G E N E T IC P A R T IT IO N IN G
Twenty years ag o , on e o f us wrote a b o o k th a t c reated a stir b e c a u se it

discussed th e heritahility o f IQ and the relatio n sh ip of in telligen c e to
success in life, a n d foresaw a future in w h ich s o c i o e c o n o m i c status would
in creasingly be in herited . T h e logic o f th e arg u m e n t was cou ch ed in a
syllogism:
If differen ces in m en tal abilities are inherited, a n d

It success requires those abilities, a n d
It earn ings and prestige depend o n success,
T h e n so c ial s ta n d in g (w hich reflects e arn in g s a n d prestige) will be
based to so m e e x te n t on in herited d ifferences a m o n g people.*
A s stated, the syllo gism is no t fearsom e. If in te llig e n c e is only trivially

a m atter of g e n e s a n d if success in life is only trivially a m a tte r o f in t e l
ligence, th e n su c c ess may be only trivially inherited.
H o w M uch Is I Q a M alter o f G e n e s1
In fact, IQ is su b sta n tia lly heritable. T h e sta te o f k n o w le d g e does n o t

perm it a p recise e stim a te , but h a l f a century of work, now a m o u n t i n g to
hundreds of em piric al and theo retical stud ies, p erm its a b ro ad c o n c l u
sion that the g e n e tic c o m p o n e n t o f IQ is unlikely to be sm a lle r t h a n 4 0
percent or h igh e r th a n 80 p e r c e n t. s T h e m o st u n a m b ig u o u s d ire c t e s
timates, based o n identical twins raised a p art, p ro d u c e so m e of the h i g h
est estim ates o f heritahility.2h For p urposes o f this d isc u ssio n , we will
ad op t a m id d lin g estim ate o f 6 0 p e rc e n t heritahility, w hich, by e x t e n
sion, m ean s th at IQ is ab out 40 p e rc e n t a m atte r o f e n v ir o n m e n t . T h e
balan ce o f the e v i d e n c e suggests that 6 0 p e rc e n t m ay err o n th e low side.
B e c a u s e I Q an d g e n e s h a s been such a sensitive topic, it is worth a

sh o rt d ig ressio n to giv e s o m e idea of where these estim ates c o m e from
a n d h o w trustw orthy th ey are.
First, c o n s id e r the q u e s t io n that h ead s this section, nor its answer.
W h a t we w a n t to k n o w is h o w m uch of the variation in IQ in a popula
tion th e ag g re g ate d d iffe re n c e s am o n g the in dividuals1' 1' is due to
v a r ia t io n s in g e n e tic e n d o w m e n t s and how m uch is due to va riatio n s in
e n v ir o n m e n t . If all the p o p u la t io n variation in IQ is due to variation s
in e n v i r o n m e n t , th en the heritability is 0 ; 1"81 if h alf is due to e n v ir o n
m e n t a l v a riatio n s, it is .5; if n o n e is due to en v iro n m en tal variation s, ir
is 1.0. H eritability, in cither words, is a ratio that ranges betw een 0 and
1 a n d m easu res the relative c o n trib u tio n o f genes to the v a ria tio n oh-
1 I.NI
se rv e d in a trait.
S p e c i a l i s t s h a v e c o m e u p with dozens o f procedures for estim atin g
heritability. N o n s p e c ia l is t s n e e d not c o n c ern them selves with nuts and
bolts, but they m ay n eed to b e reassured on a few basic points. First the
h eritab ility of any trait c a n be estim ated as long as its v a riation in a p o p
u la tio n c a n he m easu red . I Q m eets that criterion handily. T h e r e are, in
fact, n o o th e r h u m a n traits physical or psychological that p rovid e as
m an y g o o d d a t a for the e s ti m a t io n of heritability as the IQ. S e c o n d , her-
itahility d e sc rib e s s o m e t h i n g ab ou t a pop ulatio n o f people, no t an in d i
v id u al. Ir m a k e s no m o re sen se to talk about the heritability o f an
in d i v i d u a l s IQ th a n it d o e s to talk ab out his birthrate. A giv en in d i
v i d u a l s IQ m ay hav e b e e n greatly affected by his special c irc u m sta n c e s
e v e n t h o u g h I Q is su b sta n tia lly heritable in the p o p u la tio n as a whole.
T h ir d , the h eritab ility of a trait may c h a n g e when the c o n d itio n s p r o
d u c i n g v a r ia t io n c h a n g e . If, o n e hundred years ago, the va riatio n s in e x
posu re to e d u c a t io n were g reater than they are now (as is n o d o u b t the
c a s e ) , a n d if e d u c a t io n is o n e source of variation in IQ, th en, o th e r
th in g s eq u a l, the h e ritab ility o f IQ was lower then than ir is now.
T h i s last p o in t is e s p e c ia lly im portant in the m od ern societies, with
th eir in te n se efforts to e q u alize opportunity. A s a general rule, as envi
ronments becom e m ore uniform, heritability rises. W h e n heritability rises,
c h ild r e n resem b le their p a r e n t s more, an d siblings increasingly re s e m
ble e a c h o th e r; in g en era l, fam ily m em bers becom e m ore sim ilar to e ac h
o t h e r a n d m o re d ifferen t fro m people in other families. It is the central
irony o f e g a lita r ia n ism : U n ifo r m ity in society m akes the m em bers o f
fa m ilie s m o re sim ilar to e a c h other an d m em bers o f different fam ilies
m o re different.
Steeper Ladders, Narrow er G ates 107
N o w for the an sw er to the q u e stio n , H o w m u c h is I Q a m a t t e r of

genes? H erita b ility is estim ated from d ata o n p e o p le w ith v a r y in g
am o u n ts o f g en etic o v erlap an d va ry in g a m o u n t s of sh a r e d e n v i r o n
ment. Broadly sp e a k in g , the e stim a t e s m ay be c h a r a c te r iz e d as d ir e c t or
in d irec t.1'' D ire c t estim ates are based o n s a m p le s of b l o o d r e la tiv e s w h o
were raised apart. T h e i r gen etic o v e rla p can b e e s t i m a t e d fro m ba sic ge-
netic c o n sid eratio n s. T h e direct m e th o d s a s s u m e t h a t th e c o r r e l a t i o n s
between th em are due to the sh are d gen es r a t h e r t h a n sh a re d e n v ir o n -
m ents b ecause they d o not, in fact, share e n v i r o n m e n t s , a n a s s u m p t i o n
that is m ore or less plausible, g iv e n the p a rtic u la r c o n d i t i o n s o f th e study.
T h e purest o f the direct c o m p a r iso n s is based o n id e n t ic a l ( m o n o z y g o t ic ,
MZ) twins reared apart, o fte n n o t kn o w in g o f e a c h o t h e r s e x is t e n c e .
Identical twins sh are all their gen es, a n d if th e y h a v e b e e n raised a p a r t
since birth, th e n the only e n v ir o n m e n t th ey s h a r e d w as t h a t in th e
womb. E x c e p t for the effects o n their IQ s o f the s h a r e d u te rin e e n v i-
ronm ent, their I Q c o rrelatio n directly e s ti m a t e s h eritability. T h e m o st
m odern study o f id en tic al twins reared in s e p a r a t e h o m e s su g g e sts a h e r
itability for gen era l in tellig en c e b e tw e e n .75 a n d .80, a v a lu e n e a r the
top of the range fou n d in the c o n te m p o ra r y t e c h n i c a l l it e r a t u r e . 11 O t h e r
direct estim ates use d a ta on o rd in ary sib lin g s w h o w ere raised a p a r t or
on parents and their ad o p te d -a w ay children. U s u a l l y , the h e r ita b ility e s
tim ates from su c h d a ta are lower hut rarely b e lo w .4 . 1' ' 1
Indirect m e th o d s c o m p a re the IQ c o r r e la tio n s b e t w e e n p e o p le w ith
different levels o f shared g en es grow ing u p in c o m p a r a b l e e n v i r o n
m ents sib lin g s versus half-siblings or versus c o u s i n s , for e x a m p l e , or
MZ twins versus fraternal (dizygotic, D Z ) tw in s, o r n o n a d o p t i v e sib lin g s
versus ad o p tiv e siblings. T h e u n d erlyin g idea is t h a t , for e x a m p l e , if full
siblings raised in the sam e h o m e and h alf-sib lin g s raised in the s a m e
h o m e differ in th eir I Q correlation s, it is b e c a u s e th e y d iffer in th e p r o
portion o f gen es they share: full sib lin g s share a b o u t 5 0 p e r c e n t of g e n e s ,
half siblings a b o u t 25 p ercent. Sim ilarly, if s i b l i n g s raised in u n s h a r e d
e n v iro n m e n ts a n d c ousin s raised in u n sh a re d e n v i r o n m e n t s d iffer in
their IQ c o rrelatio n s, it is b e c a u se of the d iffe r in g d e g r e e s o f g e n e t i c
overlap b e tw e e n c ousin s an d sib lin g s an d n o t b e c a u s e o f d iffe rin g e n v i
ro n m en ta l in flu en ces, w hich are u n sh ared by d e fin i t i o n . A n d s o o n .
Fleshed o u t in so m e sort of statistica l m o d e l, th is id e a m a k e s it p o s s i b le
to estim ate the heritability, but the m o d e l i n g c a n get c o m p l e x . S o m e
studies use m ixtu res o f d irect a n d in direct m e t h o d s . 1" 1
T h e t e c h n ic a l literature is filled with v a r y in g e s t i m a t e s of th e h eri-
108 The Emergence oj a Cognitive Elite
tab ility of IQ , o w in g to the varying m od els being used for estim atio n
a n d to the va ry in g sets o f data. S o m e people seem eager to rhrow up
th eir h a n d s an d d e c lare, N o one knows (or c a n kn o w ) how heritable
IQ is. Bur th a t re a c tio n is as unwarranted as it is hasty, if on e is c o n
te n t, as we are, to a c c e p t a range o f uncertainty about the heritability
th a t sp e c ialists m ay find nerve-racking. W e are co n te n t, in o th e r words,
to say th a t the h e ritab ility of IQ falls som ew here within a broad range
a n d that, fo r purp oses o f our discussion, a value of .6 .2 d o es no v i o
le n c e to a n y of the c o m p e t e n t and responsible recent estim ates. T h e
ran g e ot .4 to .8 in clu d es virtually all recent (since 1980) estim ates
c o m p e t e n t , resp on sible, or otherw ise.1
R e c e n t stu d ies h a v e u n cov ered other salient facts ab ou t the way IQ
sc o res d e p e n d o n g enes. T h e y have found, for e x am p le, th at the m ore
g e n e r a l th e m easu re ot in tellig en c e the closer it is to g the higher is
th e h e rita b ility .1 A ls o , the ev id en c e seem s to say that the heritability
o f I Q rises as o n e ages, all the way from early c h ild h o o d to late a d u lt
h o o d . " 1 T h i s m e a n s t h a t the variation in IQ am ong, say, youths ages 18
to 22 is less d e p e n d e n t o n genes th a n that a m o n g p eop le ages 4 0 to 44-*'11
M o st of th e tra d itio n a l estim ates ot heritability hav e been based on
youn g sters, w h ich m e a n s that they are likely to und erestim ate the role
o f g e n e s l a te r in life.
Finally, an d m o st surprisingly, the evid ence is growing that w h atever
v a r ia t io n is left o v e r for the en v iro n m e n t to exp lain (i.e., 4 0 percent, of
th e total v a ria t io n , if the heritability ot I Q is taken to be .6), relatively
little c a n he tra c e d to the shared en v iro n m en ts created by f a m il ie s .1' It
is, rather, a set o f e n v ir o n m e n t a l influences, mostly u n k n o w n at present,
t h a t are e x p e r ie n c e d hy individuals as individuals. T h e fact th at family
m e m b e r s resem b le e a c h other in intelligence in a d u lth o o d as m u ch as
th ey d o is very largely e x p la in e d by the g enes they share rather t h a n the
fam ily e n v i r o n m e n t they shared as children. T h e se findings suggest deep
ro o ts in d e e d for the c o g n itiv e stratification o f society.
T h e Syllogism in Practice
T h e h e rita b ility of I Q is substantial. In C h a p te rs 2 an d 3, we p resented

e v i d e n c e t h a t th e re la tio n sh ip o f co gn itiv e ability to success in life is far
from trivial. In a sm u c h a s the syllogism s premises c a n n o t be d ism issed
o u t of h a n d , n e ith e r c a n its co n c lu sio n th at success in life will be based
to s o m e e x t e n t o n in herited differences am o n g p eo p le.191
S tecper Ladders, N a m m>er Ciaics 109
Furtherm ore, a variety (if cither scientific fin d in g s lead s us to conclude

that the heritability of success is g o in g to in crease r a th e r t h a n dim inish.
Regin with the lim its that heritability puts on. th e a b ility to m anipulate
in telligence, by im a g in in g a U n i t e d S t a t e s th at h as m a g ic a l l y m ade good
on the c o n te m p o rar y ideal of equality. Every' c h ild in this imaginary
A m e ric a e x p e rie n c e s exactly the sam e e n v i r o n m e n t a l effects, for good
or ill, on his or her in telligence. H ow m u ch i n t e ll e c t u a l v a ria tio n would
r e m a in If the heritability of IQ is .6, the sta n d a r d d e v i a t io n o f IQ in
our m agical world of identical e n v iro n m e n ts w ould be 1 1.6 instead o f
15 (see the n o te tor how this c a lc u latio n is d o n e ) sm aller, hut still leav
ing a great deal of va riatio n in intellectual t a l e n t t h a t c o u ld no t be re
duced further by m ere equalization.1401 A s w e n o t e d earlier, when a
society m ak es g o o d o n the ideal of letting ev e ry y o u n g s te r hav e equal
access to the th in g s that allow latent c o g n i tiv e ab ility to develop, it is
in effect d riv in g the e n v iro n m e n ta l c o m p o n e n t of I Q va riatio n closer
and closer to nil.
T h e U n i t e d S t a t e s is still very far from this state of affairs at the e x
tremes. If o n e th in k s o f babies growing up in s l u m s w ith crack-add icted
m others, at o n e e x tre m e , com p a red to c h ild re n g r o w in g up in affluent,
culturally rich h o m e s with parents d e d ic a te d to sq u eezin g every last
IQ point o u t of th e m , then ev en a h eritability of .6 leav es room for
c o n sid erable c h a n g e if the c h a n g e s in e n v i r o n m e n t are c o m m e n
surably large. W e take up the e v id e n c e o n t h a t issue in detail in
C h a p t e r 17, w h en we c onsid er the m any e d u c a t i o n a l an d social in
terventions that h a v e a ttem p ted to raise IQ. B u t th o s e are, by defini
tion, the ex tre m e s, the two tails of the d is t r i b u t i o n of env iron m ents.
M o v in g a ch ild from an en v iro n m e n t that is th e very worst to the very
best may m ak e a hig difference. In reality, w h a t m o st interventions
ac c om plish is to m o v e child ren from awful e n v i r o n m e n t s to on es that
are merely b elo w a v erag e, a n d such c h an g es a r e l im ite d in their p o t e n
tial c o n se q u e n c e s w h en heritability so c o n s tr a in s t h e lim its of e n v iro n
m ental effects.1411
S o while we c a n lo o k forward to a future in w h i c h sc ie n c e discovers
how to foster in telligen c e en v iro n m en tally a n d h o w to use the science
humanely, in herited c o g n itiv e ability is n o w e x t r e m e ly im portant. In
this sense, luck c o n tin u e s to m atter in lifes o u t c o m e s , but now it is m ore
a m atter o f the I Q h an d ed ou t in lifes lottery t h a n a n y t h in g else about
circum stances. H ig h c o g n itiv e ability as of t h e 1 9 9 0 s m e a n s , more than
even before, that the c h a n c e s of success in life are g o o d a n d getting b e t
ter all the tim e , a n d th e se are decreasingly affected by the so c ial e n v i

r o n m e n t , w h ich by e x t e n s i o n in dicates that they m ust be increasingly af
fe c te d by g en es. H o l d i n g th e se thou ghts in mind, now c o n sid e r the
p h e n o m e n o n k n o w n as assortative mating.
L o v e , M a rria g e , a n d IQ
T h e old saw n o t w it h s t a n d in g , opposites do not really attrac t w h en it

c o m e s to lo v e a n d m arriag e. L ik e s attract. In one o f the classic papers,
o rig in a lly p u b lis h e d in 1 9 4 3 , two sociologists studied 1,000 en gag ed
c o u p l e s in C h i c a g o , e x p e c t in g to find at least som e traits in w hich o p
p o s ite s did in d e e d a ttrac t. B u t o u t of fifty-one social c h arac teristics stu d
ied, th e sign o f the c o r r e la tio n was positive for every single on e. For all
but six o f th e fifty-one traits, the correlations were statistically sign ifi
c a n t.'12 M o d e s t but c o n s i s te n tl y positive correlations h a v e been found
for a w ide v a riety of p h y sic al traits as well, ranging from stature (th e c o r
r e la tio n s from m a n y stud ies av erage about + .2 5 ) to eye c olor (also a v
e r a g in g a b o u t + . 2 5 , e v e n w ith in nation al p o p u la tio n s).4'
O f th e m a n y c o r r e la tio n s in v o lv in g h usbands and wives, on e o f the
h ig h e s t is for IQ. In m o st o f the m ajo r studies, the correlation of hus
b a n d an d wife I Q h a s b e e n in the region of .4, though estim ates as low
as .2 a n d as h ig h as .6 h a v e b e e n observed. J e n s e n s review of the liter
al ure in the late 1970s fo u n d th at the average correlation of forty-three
sp o u se c o r r e la tio n s for v a rio u s tests o f c ognitive ability was + .45, alm o st
as h i g h as th e typical c o r r e l a t i o n o f IQ s am o n g siblings.'441
I f the P ropen sity to M a te by C ogn itive A bility H as R em ained the S am e :
W h e n the p ro p e n sity to m a t e by co g n itiv e ability is co m b in e d with the

e d u c a t io n a l an d o c c u p a t i o n a l stratificatio n we h av e d escribed, the im
p a c t o n the n e x t g e n e r a tio n w ill be larger than on the previous on e, even
if the underlying propensity to m ate by cognitive ability rem ains the sam e.
C o n s i d e r 100 H a r v a r d / R a d c liffe marriages from the class o f 1930 ver
sus a n o t h e r 100 from th e c la ss o f 1964- We stipulate th at the p r o p e n
sity t o m arry p e o p le o f s im ila r intelligence has not c h a n g e d in the
in t e r v e n i n g thirty-four years. N o n e th e le ss, the on es w ho marry in 1964
will p r o d u c e a set o f c h ild r e n with considerably higher m e a n I Q than
the o n e s w h o m arried in 1 9 3 0 , because the level o f in telligence at H a r
va rd a n d R a d c liffe h ad risen s o dramatically.
H o w m u c h d iffe re n ce c a n it m ak e ? If the average H arvard m an in the
Steeper luuldcrs, Narrower G ates 11 1
class of 1 9 3 0 m arried the average R ad c liffe w o m a n in the .same g r a d u

ating class as far as we c an tell, both w o u ld h a v e h a d I Q s o f a b o u t
117 then the e x p e c te d m ean IQ of th eir c h ild r e n , after t a k i n g r e g r e s
sion to the m e an in to ac c o u n t, will he a b o u t 114, o r at th e 8 2 d p e r
centile. Ihl Rut av erag e H arvard a n d R ad cliffe n e w ly w e d s in th e c la ss of
1964 were likely to h a v e children with a m e a n I Q o f a b o u t 12 4 , at th e
95 th p ercentile. In term s of distribu tions ra th e r t h a n a v e ra g e s, a b o u t a
third of the ch ild ren o f the H arvard n e w ly w e d s of 1 9 3 0 c o u ld he e x
pected to h a v e IQ s of less than 110 n o t e v e n c o l l e g e m a te r ia l by s o m e
defin ition s.1'*61 In c o n trast, only 6 p erc en t of th e c h il d r e n o f the H a r v a r d
newlyweds of 1965 could be exp ected t o fall b e lo w this c u to ff. M e a n
while, only a b o u t 22 percent of the c h ild re n of th e 19 30 n e w ly w e d s
could he e x p e c te d to m a tc h or exceed th e average of th e c h i l d r e n o f th e
1965 newlyweds. In such num bers lurk large s o c i a l effects.
I f the Propensity to M a te by C ognitive A bility H a s In c re ase d :
W e h av e b e e n a ssu m in g that the propensity to m a te by IQ h a s r e m a in e d

the same. In reality, it has alm ost certainly in c r e a s e d a n d will c o n t i n u e
to increase.
We hedge with a l m o s t because no q u a n t i t a t i v e s tu d ie s tell w h e t h e r
assortative m a tin g by in telligence has b e e n i n c r e a s in g recently. But we
do know from so c io lo g ist R ob ert M are of th e U n i v e r s i t y o f W i s c o n s in
that asso rtative m a tin g by ed u c atio n al level in c r e a s e d o v e r t h e p e r io d
from 1940 to 1 9 8 7 an increase in h o m o g a m y , in th e s o c i o l o g is t s l a n
guage. T h e in crease in h o m o g am y was m o st p r o n o u n c e d a m o n g c o lle g e -
educated persons. Specifically, the odds o f a c o l le g e g r a d u a t e s m a rry in g
so m e o n e w h o was n o t a college g rad u ate d e c l i n e d fro m 4 4 p e r c e n t in
1940 to .35 p e r c e n t in M a r e s m ost recent d a t a (for 1985 to 1 9 8 7 ) . T h e
prop ortion hit a low o f 33 percen t in th e 1 9 8 0 d a t a . l4;| B e c a u s e e d u c a
tional a tt a in m e n t an d IQ are so closely lin k ed a n d b e c a m e m o r e c lo se ly
linked in th e p ostw a r period, M a r e s results su g g e st a su b s t a n t ia l in c r e a se
in asso rtative m a tin g hy IQ, with the g r e a te s t c h a n g e o c c u r r i n g at th e
upper levels of IQ.
M a re identifies so m e o f the reasons for in c r e a s e d h o m o g a m y in th e
trends in v o lv in g e d u c a tio n a l a tt a in m e n t, a g e at le a v in g s c h o o l , a n d a g e
at marriage. Rut there are a variety o f o t h e r p o t e n t i a l e x p l a n a t i o n s
(som e of w hich h e n o te s) th at in volve c o g n i t i v e a b ility sp e cifically. F or
e xam p le, a sm art wife in the 1990s has a m u c h g r e a t e r d o l la r p ay o ff lor
a m a n t h a n sh e did fifty years a g o .4* T h e fem inist m o v e m e n t has also

in c r e a se d th e lik elih o o d o f m arrying by cognitive ability.
First, the fe m in ist re v o lu tio n in practice (which began in the 1950s,
a n t e d a t i n g th e re v o lu tio n in rheto ric) drastically increased the odds
t h a t bright y o u n g w o m e n will be thrown in c o n ta c t with bright young
m e n d u rin g th e years w h e n p e o p le choose spouses. T h is is m ost ohvious
in c o lle g e , w here th e p r o p o r ti o n of w om en c o n tin u in g to college surged
from a b o u t h alf th e p ro p o r tio n o f m en in 1950 to equality in 1 9 7 5 .4'1 It
w as n o t just the n u m b ers, however. A ll of the elite m e n s c o lleg es b e
c a m e c o e d u c a t i o n a l , as d id m a n y of elite w o m e n s colleges. S tric t p ari
etal rules g a v e way to c o e d u c a t i o n a l dorm s. Intelligence h as always been
a n im p o r ta n t facto r for so rtin g am o n g prospective mates, but c o m p a r i
s o n s h o p p in g at sin g le-sex c o lle g e s like Vassar or Yale was a struggle; the
fe m in ist re v o lu tio n in th e universities led to an e x p lo sio n of in fo rm a
tio n , as it were, t h a t m ad e it easier for the brightest to pair Lip.
T h e sam e p h e n o m e n o n e x te n d e d to the workplace. Large p ro p o r
tio n s of the c o g n itiv e elite d elay marriage until the later tw enties or
e v e n thirties. O n ly a few d e c a d e s ago, delay tended to dilute the c h a n c e s
of a sso rta tiv e m a tin g by IQ. In a world where the brightest w o m e n were
usually no t in the work force or were in a few restricted o c c u p a tio n s, the
p o o l from w h ich a m a n in his late twenties found a bride were m o d e r
a te d prim arily by s o c i o e c o n o m i c status; he found his m ate a m o n g the
w o m e n he e n c o u n te r e d in his neig h borh o od , church, social o rgan iza
tion s, an d o th e r settin g s th a t were m atched mostly by s o c io e c o n o m ic
status. But to d ay b a c k g ro u n d status is less im portant th an in telligence.
T h e y o u n g m a n newly g r a d u a te d from his elite law school jo in s his elite
N e w York firm, th e r e u p o n en c o u n te rin g young w om en, just as highly
se le c t e d for c o g n i tiv e ability as he was, in the adjacent offices at his own
firm, at business lu n c h es, a c r o ss the table in n egotiations, on a daily b a
sis. T h e o p p o rtu n itie s for p ro p in q u ity to work its magic were increased
in th e w o rk p lac e too , an d will c o n tin u e to increase in the years to com e.
T h e s e c o n d effect o f f e m in is m is less ponderable but may be im p o r
t a n t anyway. N o t so m an y years ago, the clich e was true: brains were not
c o n s i d e r e d sexy in a w o m a n , a n d m any m en undervalued brains as an
a sse t in a p r o sp e c tiv e sp o u se o r even felt threatened by sm art w om en.
S u c h att itu d e s m ay linger in so m e men, but fem inism h as surely w e a k
e n e d th e m an d , to so m e d egree, freed relationships a m o n g m e n and
w o m e n so t h a t a w om an 's p o te n t ia l for o c c u p atio n al success c a n take as
Steeper Ladders, Narrower Gates 1 13
d o m in a n t a p la c e in the m a n s m arriage c a l c u l u s as it h a s tr a d i t io n a l ly
taken in the w o m a n s.1 01 We sp e c u la te t h a t t h e e ffe c t h a s b e e n m o s t lib-
erating a m o n g th e brightest. If we are right, t h e n th e tren d s in e d u c a -
tional h o m o g a m y that M are h as d e m o n s t r a t e d a r e a n u n d e r s t a t e d
reflection o f w hat is really go in g o n . I n te r m a r r ia g e a m o n g p e o p l e in th e
top few p e rc e n tile s o f in telligen ce m ay be i n c r e a s i n g far m o r e rapidly
than suspected.
T H E L IM IT S O F C H U R N I N G
A m e ric a n so c iety has historically b e e n full (if c h u r n i n g , a s n e w g ro u p s

cam e to this country, worked their way up, a n d j o i n e d the r a n k s o f th e
rich and powerful. M e an w h ile, so m e of the c h il d r e n o f the rich a n d p ow -
erful, or their gran d c h ild ren , were d e s c e n d in g th e ladder. T h i s p ro c e ss
has m ade for a vibran t, sell-renew ing society. In d e p r e ssin g c o n tr a s t, we
have been e n v is io n in g a society th at b e c o m e s in c r e a sin g ly q u ie s c e n t at
the top, as a c o g n itiv e elite m o v e s tow ard t h e u p p e r in c o m e b r a c k e t s
and runs m o st ot the in stitutions o f society, t a k i n g o n s o m e o f th e c h a r
acteristics of a caste.
Is the sit u a tio n really so ex tre m e ? T o s o m e e x t e n t , n o t yet. For e x
am ple, natio n al surveys still in d ic ate th at fe w e r t h a n 6 0 p e r c e n t in th e
to p q u a rtile ot in telligen c e ac tually c o m p le te a b a c h e l o r s d e g r e e . |M|T h i s
would seem to l e a v e a lot o f room for c h u r n i n g . B u t w h e n we foc u s i n
stead on th e stu d en ts in the top few c e n ti le s o f c o g n i t i v e ab ility (fro m
which the n a t i o n s elite colleges p ic k a lm o st e x c lu s i v e l y ) , an e x t r e m e ly
high prop ortion are already bein g sw ept in to t h e c o m f o r t a b le p r e c in c t s
of the co g n itiv e elite.'" In the N L S Y , for e x a m p l e , 81 p e rc e n t o f th o s e
in the top 5 p erc en t ot IQ h ad o b ta in e d at l e a s t a b a c h e l o r s d e g re e by
1990, w h e n the youn gest m e m b e rs o f the s a m p l e were 25 y ears o l d . 1'
W h e n we e x a m in e the re m ain in g 19 percent' w h o h a d n o t o b t a i n e d
college degrees, th e efficiency of A m e r i c a n s o c i e t y in p u s h in g th e m o st
talented to the to p looks ev en m o re im p re ssiv e . F o r e x a m p l e , o n ly a
small portion of th a t 19 percent were sm art s t u d e n t s w h o h a d b e e n raised
in a low -in com e fam ily and did n o t get to c o l l e g e for la c k ot o p p o r t u
nity. O n ly 6 p e rc e n t o f persons in the top fiv e I Q c e n t i l e s did n o t h a v e
a college d egree and c a m e from fam ilie s in t h e low er h alt ot s o c i o e c o
n o m ic s t a t u s . ,<l
If this 19 p erc en t o f h igh -IQ p e r s o n s - w i t h o u t - B .A .s d o e s n o t fit th e
stereotype o f th e deprived stu d en t, w h o w e r e th e y ? S o m e w ere b e
c o m i n g m e m b e rs o f rhe c o g n i t iv e elite e v e n though they d o no t hav e

a c o l le g e d egree. Bill G a t e s , c o lle g e d r o p o u t and founder of M icrosoft,
is th e larger-than-life p r o to ty p e . Five p e rc e n ta g e p oin ts ot the 19 p er
c e n t w ere w o rk in g in o n e o f th e h ig h - IQ o c cu p atio n s, in d ic atin g that
they were p ro b a b ly o f th e m in o r-le a g u e Bill G a t e s variety (c o r r o b o
rate d by th e ir in co m es, w h ic h were h i g h ) . O f the rem ain in g 14 per
c e n t w h o w ere n o t w o rk in g in h i g h - I Q occu p ations, a q uarter had
fam ily in c o m e s in e x c e s s o f $ 5 0 , 0 0 0 w h ile they were still only in their
late tw e n tie s a n d early th irties, p u ttin g th e m in rhe top 20 p erc en t ot
fam ily in c o m e s tor their ag e g r o u p . 1' In total, roughly halt o f these smart
n o n - c o l l e g e g ra d u a te s are a lread y ta k in g their place a m o n g the smart
c o l le g e gra d u a te s, by virtue ot th eir in c o m e s, their o c c u p atio n s, or both.
It s e e m s a safe b et th a t th e n e i g h b o r h o o d s where they live an d rhe way
th ey so cialize th eir c h il d r e n are g o i n g to be indistin guishable from
th o se o f m o st ot th eir c o u n te r p a r ts in the top five centiles w ho c o m
p le t e d co lle g e .
T h e r e is d o u b tle ss s o m e relatively sm all fraction o f those in the top
5 p e r c e n t in te lle c tu a lly w h o will n e v e r rise ro successful positions,
w h e th e r b e c a u se ot lack o f m o t i v a t i o n or o b je c tiv e barriers. But what a
sm a ll p e r c e n t a g e of the h ig h ly t a le n te d they are. A n d we m ay add a re
m in d e r th at we are w a tc h in g a n o n g o in g process. T h in k ba ck to C h a p
ter 1 a n d im a g in e th e trend lin e trom 1 9 0 0 to 1990 stretched ou t to,
say, 2 0 2 0 . W h a t e v e r the n u m b e r o f th e c o g n itiv e elite w ho slip betw een
th e c r a c k s now, it is a m u c h sm a lle r figure t h a n it was in rhe 1950s, rad
ically s m a lle r t h a n ir was in th e 1900s, a n d presumably it will get sm aller
still in th e future.
T h e s e o b s e r v a ti o n s h a v e sev era l im p lic atio n s. A t a p rac tic a l policy
lev el, th e m o st o b v io u s is t h a t p ro g ra m s t o exp and op p ortunity for the
d i s a d v a n t a g e d are n o t g o i n g to m a k e m u c h difference in g e ttin g the
m o s t ta le n te d y o u th s to c o lle g e . A n e x tr e m e ly high prop ortion o f those
w h o w a n t to g o are alread y g o in g . T h e bro ad er im p lication is that the
t u n n e li n g sy stem is alread y f u n c t i o n i n g at a high level o f efficiency,
th e re b y p r o m o t i n g th ree in te r l o c k in g p h e n o m e n a :
1. T h e c o g n i t iv e elite is g e t t i n g richer, in an era when everybody else

is h a v i n g to struggle to stay even.
2. T h e c o g n i t iv e elite is in creasin gly seg reg ated physically trom ev ery
o n e else, in b o th the w o rk p la c e a n d th e neighborhood.
3. T h e c o g n i t iv e elite is in c r e a sin gly likely to intermany.
Steeper Ladders, Narrower Gates 11 5
T h e s e p h e n o m e n a are d riv e n hy forces t h a t d o n o t lend them selves

to easy rec o n figu ratio n hy politician s. A s we le a v e Part 1, here is a topic
to keep in the h ac k of your m in d : W h a t if th e c o g n i t iv e elite were to
b e c o m e n o t only richer than e v ery o n e e lse, in c r e a sin gly segregated, and
more genetically d istin c t as tim e goes o n but were a lso to acquire c o m
m on p olitical interests? W h a t m ig h t th o s e in te r e sts be, and bo w con-
gruent m ig h t they he with a free so c ie ty ? H o w d ecisively could the
co g n itiv e elite affect policy if it were to a c q u ire s u c h a c o m m o n politi
cal in terest?
T h e s e issues will return in the last c h a p t e r s in th e book. T h e y are
p ostp on ed for now, b ecau se we m ust first e x p lo r e the social problems
that m ight help c reate such a new p o litic a l c o a l i t io n .
PART II
Cognitive Classes and

Social Behavior
W hereas Part 1 d e alt with p ositive o u tc o m e s a tta in m e n t o f high e d u

cational levels, prestigious o c c u p a tio n s, h igh in c o m e s Part II presents
our best e s ti m a t e of how m uch in telligence h a s to do with A m e r i c a s
m ost pressing so c ial p roblem s. T h e short a n s w e r is quite a lot, and the
reason is th a t differen t levels of c o g n itiv e ab ility are associated with d if
ferent p atterns of so cial behavior. H igh c o g n i t iv e ability is generally a s
sociated with so c ia lly desirable behaviors, low co g n itiv e ability w ith
socially u n d esirab le ones.
G e n e ra lly a sso c ia te d w ith d oes n o t m e a n c oin c id en t with. For
virtually all of t h e top ics we will be discussing, c o g n itiv e ability a c c o u n ts
for only sm all to m id dling prop ortions of t h e variation am o n g p eop le.
It alm ost alw ays e x p la in s less th an 20 p e r c e n t o f the variance, to use th e
sta t istic ia n s term , usually less th a n 10 p e r c e n t and often less than 5 p e r
cent. W h a t this m e a n s in E nglish is that you c a n n o t predict what a g iv e n
person will do from h is IQ score a p o in t t h a t we have m ade in P a rt I
and will m a k e a g a in , for it needs repeating. O n the other h an d, d e sp ite
the low a s s o c ia tio n a t the in dividual level, larg e differences in social b e
h av ior sep arate group s o f p eo p le when the g roup s differ in tellectu ally
on the average.
W e will argue th at in telligence itself, n o t just its correlation w ith
so c io e c o n o m ic status, is responsible for th e se group differences. O u r
thesis appears t o be radical, jud ging from its n eg lect hy oth e r s o c i a l
scientists. C o u l d low in telligence possibly b e a cause o f irresponsible
c h ild b earin g a n d p a re n tin g behaviors, for e x a m p le ? S c h o la rs of c h i l d
bearing a n d p a r e n tin g do n o t seem to th in k s o . T h e 8 5 0 d o u b le -c o lu m n
p ages of th e a u th o rita tiv e H a n d b o o k of M a r r ia g e and the Family, for
exam ple, allude to in telligen ce about h a l f a d ozen times, always in
p assin g .1 C o u l d low in tellig en ce possibly be a cau se o f u n e m p lo y m e n t
118 Cognitive Classes and Social Behavior
or poverty? O n ly a sc atterin g o f ec o n o m ists hav e bro ached the p o s

sibility.2
T h i s neg lec t p o in ts to a g a p in g hole in the state o f know led ge about
social behavior. It is n o t th at c o g n itiv e ability has been c o n sid ered and
found in c o n se q u e n tia l but th a t it has barely been consid ered at all. T h e
chap ters in Part II ad d c o g n itiv e ability to the mix o f variables that s o
cial sc ie n tists h a v e traditionally used, clearing away so m e o f the m ys
tery th a t h a s surrounded the nation 's most serious social p roblem s.
W e will also argue that c o g n itiv e ability is an im p ortan t factor in
th in kin g a b o u t the nature o f the present problems, w h eth er or n o t c o g
nitive ab ility is a cause. For ex a m p le , if m any o f the single w o m en who
have b a b ies also h a v e low IQ, it m akes n o difference (in o n e sense)
w hether the low IQ caused th e m to hav e the babies or w h eth er the path
of c au satio n takes a more w in din g route. T h e reality that less in telligent
w om en h a v e m ost o f the ou t-of-w edlock babies affects an d co n strain s
public policy, w hatever the p a th o f causation. T h e sim ple correlation,
unadjusted for oth e r facto rs w hat social scientists called the zero-or
der c o rre la tio n between c o g n itiv e ability and social b e h a v io rs is s o
cially im p ortant.
T h e c h ap ters of Part II c o v e r a wide range o f topics, ea c h requiring
exten sive d o c u m e n ta tio n . M a n y statistics, m any tables an d graphs,
many c ita tio n s to te c h n ica l jo u rn a ls crowd the pages. But the ch ap ters
generally follow a sim ilar p attern , and m any o f the c o m p le x it ie s will
be less d a u n tin g if you u n d e rstan d three basics: the N L S Y , our use o f
c ognitive classes, and our stan dard op eratin g procedure for statistical
analysis.
THE N LSY
In Part I, we occasion ally m a d e use o f the N a tio n a l L o n g itu d in a l S u r

vey of Youth, the N L S Y . In the ch ap ters that follow, it will play the c e n
tral role in the analysis, w ith o th e r studies called in as a v a ila b le and
appropriate.
U n til a few years ago, th ere were n o answers to m any o f the q u estio n s
we will ask, or only very murky answers. N o one knew w h at the rela
tionship o f cog n itiv e ability to illegitimacy might be, or e v e n the re la
tionship o f co gn itiv e ability to poverty. Despite the m illions o f m en tal
tests th at h av e been given, very few o f the system atic surveys, a n d s o m e
times n o n e , gave the analyst a way to con c lu d e with any c o n fid e n c e that
Cognitive Classes and Social Behavior 119
this is how IQ in te ra c ts with b e h a v io r X for a rep re se n ta tiv e sam ple o f

A m eric an s.
S e v e ra l m o d e r n sources o f d ata h a v e b e g u n to an sw er such questions.
T h e T A L E N T d a ta b a s e , the huge natio n al s a m p le o f high school s t u
dents tak e n in 1961, is the m ost v e n e r a b le of th e sou rces, but its follow-
up surveys h a v e b e e n limited in th e range an d c o n tin u ity o f their d ata.
T h e Panel S tu d y o f In c o m e D y n a m ics, b e g u n in 196 8 an d the n a t io n s
longest-running lo n gitu d in al d atab ase, a d m in iste r e d a brief vocabulary
test in 1972 to parr o f its sam p le, but the sc ores allow only rough d is
c rim in atio n s a m o n g p eop le in the lower p o rtio n s o f the distribution o f
in telligence. T h e N a tio n a l L o n g itu d in a l S u rv e y beg u n by the D e p a rt
m ent of E d u c a tio n in 1972 (n ot to be c on fu sed w ith the N L S Y ) p r o
vides answ ers to m an y q uestio n s asso c ia te d w ith e d u c a tio n a l outcom es.
T h e d e p a r t m e n t s m ore am bitiou s study, H ig h S c h o o l and Beyond, c o n
ducted in the early 1980s, is also useful.
B u t the m o th e r lode for sch o lars w h o w ish to un d erstan d the re la
tionship o f c o g n itiv e ability to so c ial and e c o n o m i c ou tco m es is the
N L S Y , w hose official n am e is the N a tio n a l L o n g i tu d in a l Survey o f L a
bor M arket E x p e rie n c e of Youth. W h e n the study b e g an in 1979, the
p articip an ts in the study were aged 14 to 2 2 . 111 T h e r e were originally
12,686 of th e m , c h o se n to p ro v id e a d e q u a te s a m p le sizes for analyzing
crucial groups (fo r e x a m p le , by o v e r s a m p lin g blacks, Latinos, and low-
incom e w h ite s), an d also in co rp o ratin g a w e ig h tin g system so that
analysts c ould d e te rm in e th e correct e s ti m a t e s for n ation ally represen
tative sam p les of their age group. S a m p l e a tt r itio n has been kept low
and the quality o f the d ata, g ath ere d by the N a t i o n a l O p in io n R esearch
C o u n c il u nd er the supervision o f the C e n t e r for H u m a n Resources R e
search at O h i o S t a t e University, h as b een e x c e lle n t.
T h e N L S Y is u n iq u e bec au se it c o m b in e s in o n e d atab ase all the e l
em en ts t h a t h i th e rto had to be stud ied p ie c e m e a l. O n ly the N L S Y c o m
bined detailed in fo rm a tio n on th e c h ild h o o d e n v ir o n m e n t and p arental
so c io e c o n o m ic statu s and su b se q u e n t e d u c a tio n a l a n d o c c u p a tio n a l
a c h ie v e m e n t a n d work history and family fo r m a t i o n and crucially for
our in terests d e ta ile d p sy c h o m etric m easu res of c o g n itiv e skills.
T h e N L S Y a c q u ire d its c o g n itiv e m e a su re s by a lucky c o in c id e n c e .
In 1980, a year after the first w a v e o f d a ta c o l le c t i o n , the D e p a rtm e n t
o f D efen se d e c id ed to update th e n a tio n a l n o rm s for its battery o f e n
listm ent tests. A t the time, it w as still usin g test sc o re s from W orld W a r
11 recruits as th e reference p o p u la tio n . B e c a u se th e N L S Y h ad just g o n e
th r o u g h th e te c h n ic a lly difficult and tedious task ot se le c t in g a n a t i o n

ally re p re se n ta tiv e sa m p le , the D ep artm en t ot Defense p rop osed to
p ig g y b a c k its study o n th e N L S Y sam ple.4 A n d so the N L S Y b e c a m e the
ben efic ia ry of an e x p e n s iv e , well-designed set of co g n itiv e an d ap titude
te sts th at were g iv e n u n d e r carefully controlled c o n d itio n s to alm o st 94
p e r c e n t of the 1 2 ,6 8 6 young m en and w om en in the N L S Y sa m p le .111
T h e m e asu re o f c o g n itiv e ability e xtrac ted from this test battery was
th e A r m e d F orc es Q u a lific a t io n Test, the A F Q T . It is w h at the psycho-
m e tr ic ia n s call h igh ly g -lo a d e d , m e an in g that it is a g o o d m easu re of
g e n e r a l c o g n i t iv e ab ility.11T h e A F Q T s m ost significant sh o rtc o m in g is
th a t it is t r u n c a t e d at the h igh end; about o n e person in a rhousand gets
a p e rfec t score, w h ic h m ean s both that the test does not d isc rim in ate
a m o n g the very h igh e st levels o f intelligence and that the v a ria n c e in
the p o p u la t io n is s o m e w h a t understated. O therw ise the A F Q T is an e x
c e ll e n t test, w ith p sy c h o m e tric reliability an d validity th at c o m p a re well
with th o s e o f th e o th e r m a jo r tests of intelligence. B e c a u se the raw
s c o re s o n t h e A F Q T m e a n n o th in g to the average reader, we express
t h e m in the IQ m e tric (w ith a m ean of 100 and a stan dard d e v ia tio n ot
1 5) or in c e n tile s. A ls o , we will subsequently refer to them as IQ sc ores,
in k e e p in g w ith o u r p o lic y of using IQ as a generic term for in telligence
test scores. W h e n we use centiles, they are age equated. A c e n tile score
of 4 5 , tor e x a m p l e , m e a n s th at the subject would rank in the 4 5 th p er
c e n t i le o f e v e r y o n e bo rn in the sam e year, if everyone took the A F Q T . 1,1
A final p o i n t a b o u t the p resen tatio n of N L S Y results is th at all results
are based on weighted analyses, which m eans that all may be interpreted
in te rm s o f a n a t io n a lly rep resen tativ e sam p le of A m e ric a n s in the N L S Y
a g e g ro u p . W e use d a t a c o llec ted through the 1990 interview wave.
T H E D E F I N I T I O N O F C O G N IT IV E C L A S S E S
T o th is p o i n t, we h a v e b e e n referring to c ognitive classes without being

sp e c ific . In th e s e c h a p te r s , we d ivide the world into c o g n itiv e classes
five of t h e m , b e c a u se t h a t h as been the m o st c o m m o n n u m b e r a m o n g
s o c i o l o g is t s w h o h a v e b ro k en dow n so c io e c o n o m ic status in to classes
a n d b e c a u s e five a llo w s the natural groupings o f very h ig h , h i g h ,
m i d , low, a n d very low. W e hav e ch osen to break the in tervals at
th e 5 th, 25 th, 75 th, a n d 95 th p ercentiles o f the distribution. T h e figure
s h o w s how th is lo o k s for a norm ally distributed population.
B r e a k p o i n ts a re arbitrary, but we did h av e som e reaso ns for these.
Cognitive C la sse s and Social Behavior 121
D e fin in g th e c o g n itiv e c l a s s e s
The Distribution o f IQ
IQ S c o re
Mainly, we w an ted to focus on th e e x t r e m e s ; h e n c e , we a v o id e d a sim

ple brea k d o w n in t o q u in t i l e s (i.e., in to e q u a l c u t s of 20 p e r c e n t ) . A great
deal of interest go es on within th e t o p 20 p e r c e n t and b o t t o m 20 per-
cent of the p o p u la tio n , in d eed , if th e s a m p l e sizes were large enough,
we would h a v e d efin ed the top c o g n i t i v e c l a s s as c o n s i s tin g o f the top
1 or 2 p erc en t o f the p o p u la tio n . I m p o r t a n t g r a d a t i o n s in s o c ia l b e h a v
ior o c c asio n ally se p arate the top 2 p e r c e n t f r o m th e n e x t 2 percent. T h is
is in line with a n o t h e r o f the t h e m e s th at w e k e e p reiteratin g because
they are so easily forgotten: You m e a n i n g t h e self-selec ted p e rso n who
has read this far into this b o o k live in a w o rld t h a t p robably looks n o th
ing like the figure. In all lik e lih o o d , a l m o s t all of y our fr ie n d s and p ro
fessional a sso c ia te s belong in th a t t o p C l a s s I slice. Your friends and
associates w h o m you consider to b e u n u su a lly slo w are p ro b a b ly so m e
where in C l a s s 11. T h o s e w h o m you c o n s i d e r to be unusually bright are
probably so m e w h e re in the u p p er fr a c t i o n o f th e 9 9 th c e n tile , a very
thin slice o f th e overall d istribu tion . In d e f i n i n g C l a s s I, w h ic h we will
use as an o p e r a t io n a l d efin ition o f th e m o re a m o r p h o u s g ro u p called the
c o g n itiv e e lite , as being the t o p 5 p e r c e n t , we a r e b ein g q u ite in clu
sive. It d oes, after all, em brace s o m e 12 1/2 m i l l i o n p e o p le , ( ' l a s s 111, the
normals, c o m p rise s h a l f of the p o p u la t io n . C l a s s e s 11 a n d IV e ac h c o m
prises 20 p e rc e n t, a n d C l a s s V, like C l a s s I, c o m p r i s e s 5 p erc en t.
T h e labels for the c la sses are the best we could do. It is im p ossible to
d e v ise n e u tra l term s for p e o p le in the lowest classes or the h igh e st ones.
O u r c h o i c e o f very d u ll for C l a s s V sounds to us less d a m n in g th an the
s t a n d a r d re ta rd e d ( w h ic h is generally defined as below an I Q o f 70,
w ith b o rd e rlin e r e ta r d e d referring to IQs between 70 and 8 0 ). Very
b r i g h t" s e e m s m o r e focused th a n superior, which is the stan d a rd term
for p e o p le w ith IQ s o f 120 to 130 (those with IQ s a b o v e 1 30 are called
very su p e rio r in t h a t n o m e n c la tu r e ) .181
P R E S E N T IN G S T A T IS T IC A L R E SU LT S
T h e b a sic to o l for m u ltiv a ria te analysis in the social sc ie n ce s is kn o w n

a s regression analysis. T h e m any form s o f regression analysis h av e a
c o m m o n structure. T h e r e is a result to ex p lain , the dependent variable.
T h e r e are s o m e th in g s th at m ight be the causes, the independent vari
ables. R e g re ssio n an a ly sis tells how m u ch each cause actually affects the
result, taking the role o f all the other hypothesized causes into account an
e n o r m o u sly useful th in g for a statistical procedure to do, h e n c e its w id e
sp read use.
In m o st o f th e c h a p te r s of Part II, we will be look in g at a variety oi
so c ia l b e h a v io rs, ra n g in g from crim e to child bearing to u n e m p lo y m e n t
to citizen sh ip . In e a c h in stan c e, we will look first at the direct re la-
t i o n s h i p o f c o g n i tiv e ability to that behavior. A fte r ob serv in g a sta t is
tica l c o n n e c t i o n , the n e x t q u estio n to c o m e to m ind is, W h a t else m ight
be a n o t h e r so u rc e o f the relationship?
In th e c a s e o f IQ , the o b v io u s answer is so c io e c o n o m ic status. To w h at
W h at Is a V ariable?
T he word variable confuses some people who are new to statistics, because
it sounds as if a variable is som ething that keeps changing. In fact, it is
so m e th in g th a t has different values among the members o f a population.
C o nsid er w eight as a variable. For any given observation, weight is a sin
gle num ber: the n u m b er o f pounds that an object weighed at the tim e the
observation was taken. But over all the members of the sample, weight has
different values: It varies, hence it is a variable. A m nem onic tor keeping
in d e p e n d e n t and de p e n d e nt straight is that the dependent variable is
th o u g h t to depend o n the values of the independent variables.
Cognitive Classes aiul Social Behavior 123
e xten t is this re la tio n sh ip really founded o n th e so c ia l b a c k g ro u n d an d

e c o n o m ic resources that sh ap ed the e n v i r o n m e n t in w hich th e p e r s o n
grew up the p a r e n t s s o c io e c o n o m ic statu s ( S E S ) rather th a n i n t e l
ligence? O u r m easu re of S E S is an in d e x c o m b i n i n g in d ic a to rs o f
parental e d u c a tio n , in co m e, a n d o c c u p a t io n a l p re stig e (details m a y be
found in A p p e n d i x 2). O u r basic proced ure h a s b e e n to run regression
analyses in w h ic h the in d ep en d en t v a ria b le s in c lu d e I Q a n d p a r e n ta l
S E S . 1101 T h e result is a sta t e m e n t of the form : H e r e is the r e la tio n sh ip
(if IQ to social b e h a v io r X after the effects of s o c i o e c o n o m i c b a c k g r o u n d
hav e been e x t r a c t e d , or vice versa. U su ally th is tak es the analysis m o st
of the d ista n c e it c a n sensibly be pushed. If th e in d e p e n d e n t r e l a ti o n
ship of I Q to s o c ial b e h a v io r X is small, th ere is n o p o in t in l o o k in g fur
ther. If the role of IQ rem ains large in d e p e n d e n t of S E S , then it is w o rth
th in kin g ab out, for it may cast social b e h a v io r a n d public policy in a
new light.
B u t W hat A b o u t O th er E xp lan ation s?
We d o n o t h a v e the c h o ice of leav in g the issue of c a u s a tio n at that, h o w

ever. B ecause in telligen c e has been su c h a t a b o o e x p la n a t i o n for s o c ia l
behavior, we a ssu m e that our c o n c lu sio n s will o fte n be resisted, if n o t
c o n d e m n e d . W e c a n already h e a r critics s a y in g , If on ly they had a d d e d
this o th e r va riab le to the analysis, they w o u ld h a v e seen that i n t e ll i
gence h a s n o th in g to do with X . A m ajo r p art o f our analysis a c c o r d
ingly has b een to a n tic ip a te w h at other v a r ia b le s m ig h t be in v o k e d a n d
seeing if they d o in fact atte n u a te the r e l a t i o n s h i p of IQ to any g iv e n
social behavio r. T h i s was not a scattershot effort. For e ac h re la tio n sh ip ,
we asked o u rselves if ev id en c e, theory, or c o m m o n sense su g g ests a n
oth e r m ajo r c a u sa l story. S o m e t im e s it did. W h e n lookin g at w h e th e r a
new m oth er w en t o n welfare, for e x am p le, it c le a rly was no t e n o u g h to
know the g en era l s o c io e c o n o m ic b a c k g r o u n d o f the w o m a n s p a r e n ts.
It was also essen tial to e x a m in e her own e c o n o m i c situ atio n at th e tim e
she had the baby: W h a t e v e r her IQ is, w o u ld sh e go on welfare if s h e
h ad e c o n o m ic resources to draw on?
A t this p oin t, however, statistical an a ly sis c a n b e c o m e a b o t t o m le s s
pit. It is not u n c o m m o n in te c h n ica l j o u r n a l s to read artic les b u ilt
around the e stim a te d effects o f a dozen or m o r e in d e p e n d e n t v a riab les.
S o m e tim e s th e entire set o f v a riab les is l o a d e d in to a sin gle regression
eq u atio n . S o m e t i m e s sets o f e q u a tio n s are u s e d m o d e lin g e v e n m o r e
124 Cognitive Classes and Social Iictuwior
c o m p lex relationships, in w h ic h all the variables c a n e x e r t m utual e f

fects o n one another.
W hy should we n o t press t o w a r d : W h y n o t also ask if religiou s b a c k
ground has an ettect on th e d e c isio n to go o n welfare, for e x a m p le ? It is
an interesting question, as are a n o t h e r fitry o th e rs th at m ig h t c om e to
mind. Our principle was to e x p lo r e a d d itio n a l d y n a m ic s w h e n there w as
an o th er factor that was no r o n ly c o n c e iv a b ly im p o r ta n t b u t for c le a r
logical reasons m ight be im p o r ta n t because of dynam ics having little or
not/iing to da with IQ . T h i s last p roviso is cru c ial, for o n e o f the m o st
c o m m o n misuses ot regression analysis is to in tro d u c e a n ad d itio n a l
variable that in reality is m o stly a n o th e r e x p r e ssio n o f v a r ia b le s that are
already in the equation.
T he Special C ase u f E d u cation
Education posed a sp ecial a n d c o n t i n u i n g p ro b le m . O n th e o n e h a n d ,

education can be im p orta n t in d e p e n d e n t ot c o g n i tiv e ability. For e x
am ple, education tends to d e la y m arriage a n d c h ild b ir t h bec au se th e
rime and com m itm en t i n v o l v e d in bein g in sc h o o l c o m p e t e s with th e
time an d com m itm en t it ta k e s to he m arried or h a v e a baby. E d u c a tio n
shapes tastes and v alu es in ways that are i n d e p e n d e n t ot the c o g n itiv e
ability ot the student. A t the s a m e tim e, how ever, th e role o f e d u c a tio n
versus IQ as calculated hy a regression e q u a t io n is tricky to interpret, for
tour reasons.
First, the num ber ot years o f e d u c a tio n t h a t a y o u th g ets is caused to
an important degree by horh th e p a re n ts S E S and the y o u t h s ow n a c a
demic ability. In the N L S Y , tor e x a m p le , th e c o rre la tio n o f years o f e d
ucation with parental SES and y o u th s IQ a r e + .50 and + .6 4 ,
respectively. T his m e a n s that w h e n years ot e d u c a t io n is used as an in
d ependent variable, it is to s o m e e x te n t e x p re ssin g the e ffe c ts o f S E S
and IQ in another form.
S e c o n d , any role that e d u c a t io n plays in d e p e n d e n t ot in te llig e n c e is
likely to be discontinuous. For e x a m p le , it m ay m a k e a big differen ce to
many outcom es that a p e rso n h a s a c o lle g e degree. Rut h o w is o n e to i n
terpret the substantive d iffe re n c e be tw e e n o n e y ear of c o l le g e an d tw o?
B etw een one year ot g rad u ate sc h o o l a n d tw o? T h e y are u n lik ely to b e
nearly as important as the d ifferen ce b e tw e e n a c o lle g e d e g r e e " and n o
c ollege degree.
T h ird , variables that a re c lo se ly related c a n in so m e c ir c u m s t a n c e s
p rod uce a technical p ro b lem k n o w n as m uhicollinearity, w h e re b y the s o
( 'ogniuvc C/mse.s and Social Behavior 12 5
lutions p ro d u c ed by regression eq u atio n s a r e u n sta b le and o lte n mis-

leading.
f o u r t h and finally, to rake e d u c a tio n s re g re ssio n c o e ffic ie n t seriously
tacitly a ssu m es that in telligence and e d u c a t i o n c o u ld vary i n d e p e n
dently a n d produce similar results. N o o n e c a n b eliev e this to be t m e in
general: indisputably, giving n in eteen y e a rs of e d u c a tio n to a p e rso n
with an I Q of 75 is no t going to have the s a m e im p a c t o n life as it w ou ld
for a p e rso n with an IQ oi 125. T h e effects o f e d u c a tio n , w h a te v e r they
may be, d e p e n d on the coexistence oi s u it a b le c ognit ive ability in ways
that o fte n require com plex and ex ten siv e m o d e l i n g of in te r a c tio n e f
fects o n c e again, problems that we h o p e o t h e r s will take up but would
push us far beyond the purposes ol this b o o k .
O u r so lu tio n to this situation is to rep ort the role of c o g n itiv e a b il
ity for tw o su bp op ulation s o f the N L S Y t h a t e a c h h a v e the s a m e level
of ed u c a tio n : a high school diploma, no m o r e an d n o less in o n e group;
a b a c h e l o r s degree, no more and no less, in th e other. T h is is a sim p le,
bur we b eliev e reasonable, way of h o u n d in g the d egree to w h ich c o g n i
tive ability m akes a difference in d ep en d en t of e d u c atio n .
We walk throu gh all three of these basics the N L S Y , the five c o g n i

tive classes, an d the format for the statistica l a n a ly s is in a step -b y -step
fashion in the n ext chapter, where we use p o v e rty to set the stage for
the social behavio rs to follow. C h a p te r 6 r e tu rn s to e d u c a tio n , this tim e
not just ta lk in g about how tar people g o t hut th e c o m p a r a ti v e roles o f
IQ and S E S in determ ining how far s o m e o n e gets in sc h o o l. T h e n , s e
rial im, we take up u nem ploy m ent and la b o r force d rop ou t ( C h a p t e r 7),
sin gle-parent fam ilies and illegitimacy ( C h a p t e r 8 ), welfare d e p e n d e n c y
( C h a p t e r 9), p aren tin g ( C h a p te r 10), c rim e ( C h a p t e r 11), a n d c iv ic b e
h a v io r ( C h a p t e r 12).
In th e se eight chapters, we limit the a n a ly s is to whites, a n d m o re
specifically to n o n -L a tin o w h ite s."11 T h i s is, we think, the best way to
m ak e yet a n o th e r central point: C o g n i t i v e ab ility affects so c ia l b e h a v
ior w ith o u t regard to race or ethnicity. T h e in flu en ce of rac e an d e t h
nicity is deferred to Parr 111.
Chapter 5
Poverty
Who becomes poor? O n e fam iliar answ er is that people who are unlucky
enough to be born to poor parents become poor. T h ere is some truth to this.
Whites, the focus o f our analyses in the chapters o f Part I I , who grew up in
the worst 5 percent o f socioeconomic circumstances are eight times more likely
to fall below the poverty line than those growing up in the top 5 percent o f so-
cioeconomic circum stances. But low intelligence is a stronger precursor o f
poverty than low socioeconomic background. W hites with IQ s in the bottom
5 percent o f the distribution of cognitive ability are fifteen times more likely to
be poor than those with IQ s in the top 5 percent.
H ow does each o f these causes o f poverty look when the other is held c o n
stant? O r to put it another w ay: If you have to choose, is it better to be. berm
smart or rich/ The answer is unequivocally sm a rt." A white youth reared in
a home in which the parent or parents were chronically unem ployed, worked
at only the m ost m enial o f jobs, and had not gotten past ninth grade, but o f
just average intelligence an IQ o f 100 has nearly a 9 0 percent chance o f
being out o f poverty by his or her early 30 s. C on versely, a white youth bm n
to a solid middle-class fam ily but ivith an IQ equivalently below average faces
a much higher risk o f poverty, despite his more fortu n ate background.
When the picture is com plicated by adding the effects o f sex, rruirital s t a
tus, and years of education, intelligence remains m ore im portant than any o f
them, with m arital status running a close second. A m o n g people who are both
smart and well educated, the risk o f poverty approaches zero. B ut it should
also be noted that young white adults who marry are seldom in poverty, even
if they are below average in intelligence or ed ucation . E ven in these more c o m
plicated an aly ses, low IQ continues to be a much stronger precursor o f poverty
than the socioeconomic circum stances in which people grow up.
e begin w ith poverty b e c au se it has b e e n so m u c h at the c e n t e r
W of c o n c e r n ab ou t social p roblem s. W e w ill b e asking, W h a t

128 Cognitive Classes ami Social Behavior
c a u s e s p o v e r t y ? focu sin g on the role that c ognitive ability m ig h t play.

O u r p o in t o f d ep a rtu re is a q u ic k lo o k at the history of poverty in the
n e x t figure, w h ich sc h o lars from th e Institute for R e se a rc h o n Poverty
h a v e now e n a b le d us to take ba ck to the 1930s.11'
D r a m a tic p r o g r e ss a g a in s t p o v e rty from W orld W ar II

th ro u g h th e 1 9 6 0 s , s ta g n a tio n sin ce th en
P r o p o rtio n o f A m e r ic a n s b e lo w th e p overty line
i------------- 1-------------- 1--------------1------------- 1-------------- 1

1940 1950 1960 1970 19B0 1990
.Sources: S A L 'S , various edition s; Ross and others, 1987.
In 1939, o v e r half o f the p e o p le o f the U n ited S ta te s lived in fa m i

lies w ith an in c o m e below t h e a m o u n t that c onstitutes the present
p o v e r t y lin e in c o n s t a n t d ollars, o f course. T h is figure d e c lin e d steeply
th r o u g h W o r ld W ar II, and t h e n th ro u gh the T rum an , Eisenhower,
K e n n e d y , a n d J o h n s o n a d m in is tr a tio n s . T h e n c am e a su d d en and last
ing h a l t to p rogress. A s o f 1 992, 14-5 p erc en t o f A m e r ic a n s were below
the p o v e rty line, w ith in a few p e r c e n ta g e points o f the level in 1969.
T h i s h isto ry p r o v o k e s th re e o b s e r v a ti o n s .
T h e first is th a t p o v e rty cannot be a sim p le, direct cause o f such p r o b
lem s a s c rim e, illegitim acy, a n d d r u g abuse. Probably no sin gle o b se rv a
tio n a b o u t p o v e rty is at o n c e so in disputable and so ignored. It is
in d i s p u ta b l e b e c a u se poverty w as e n d e m ic at a time when those p ro b
le m s w ere m in o r. W e k n o w t h a t re d u c in g poverty c an n o t, by itself, be
e x p e c t e d to p r o d u c e less c rim in ality, illegitimacy, drug abuse, or the rest
Poverty 1 29
o f the c a ta lo g o f so c ia l problem s, else the history o f th e tw en tieth c e n

tury would h a v e c h ro n ic le d their steep d e c lin e .
T h e second p o in t illustrated by rhe graph o f p o v e rty is that th e p o o l
of poor p eop le m ust h a v e ch an ged over tim e. A s la te as the 1 940 s, s o
m any people were p oor in e c o n o m ic term s th a t to be p oor did n o t n e c
essarily m ean to b e d istingu ishable from the rest o f the p o p u la tio n in
any other way. T o rephrase the dialogue b e t w e e n F. S c o t t Fitzgerald a n d
Ernest H em ingw ay, the poor were different from you a n d me: T h e y h a d
less money. Rut t h a t was almost th e only reliable differen ce. A s a fflu
ence spread, p eo p le w ho escap ed from poverty were n o t a r a n d o m s a m
ple of the p a p u la t io n . W h e n a group sh rin k s from o v e r 50 p e rc e n t of
rhe p o p u la tio n to the less than 15 p e rc e n t th a t has p revailed sin c e th e
late 1960s, th e p e o p le w ho are left b eh in d are likely to be d is p r o p o r
tionately those w h o suffer no t only bad lu ck but a ls o a lack o f energy,
thrift, farsighted ness, d e te rm in a t io n a n d brains.
T h e third p oint of the graph is th at so m e p e r s p e c t iv e is in o rd er a b o u t
what h ap p e n e d to poverty during the 1 9 6 0 s an d rhe fam ous W ar o n
Poverty. T h e rrendline we show for 1 9 3 6 - 1 9 6 9 w ould h a v e had a b o u t th e
sam e slope if we h ad c h o sen any of the d e c ad e s in b e tw e e n to c alc u late it.
T h e U n ite d S t a t e s was no t only getting richer but h a d been red ucing th e
percentage of p eop le below the modern poverty lin e for at least three
d ecad es before the 1960s cam e to a close. W e will n o t reopen h e re t h e
c o n tin u in g d e b ate ab o u t why progress c a m e to an e n d when it did.
In this chapter, we e x p lo re som e basic fin d in gs ab o u t the d iffe re n t
roles th at in telligen c e a n d social b a ck g ro u n d p lay in k eep in g i n d i v i d u
als out o f poverty. T h e basics may be stated in a few p aragra p h s, as w e
did in the c h a p t e r s introduction. But we also w a n t t o sp eak to re a d e rs
w ho ask, Yes, bur w h at ab ou t the role of. . . t h i n k in g o f th e m a n y
other p o ten tial cau ses o f white poverty. By th e e n d of the c h ap ter, w e
will h av e drawn a c o n tr o v e rsial con c lu sio n . H o w d id we get there ? W h a t
m akes us th in k th a t we h av e g o t our c ausal o rd e rin g right? W e will w alk
through the an a ly ses that lie behind o u r c o n c l u s io n s , ta k in g a m o r e
leisurely ap p ro a c h t h a n in the chapters t o c o m e.
C A N A N IQ S C O R E T A K E N A T A G E 15 B E A C A U S E O F
P O V E R T Y A T A G E 30?
W e need to deal a t o n c e with an issue t h a t a p p lie s to m o st o f rhe t o p

ics in Part II. We w an t to consider poverty as a n e ffe c t rather t h a n a s a
130 Cognitive Classes and Social Behtwurr
c a u s e in so c ia l s c ie n c e term inology, as a dependen t, not an in d e p e n

d e n t , va riab le.* I n te llig e n c e will be evaluated as a factor that bears on
b e c o m in g poor. B u t w h a t, alter all, does an intelligence test score m ean
for a n a d o l e s c e n t w h o h a s grown up poor? W o u ld n t his test score h av e
b e e n h ig h e r if h is luck in h o m e en v iro n m en t had been better? C a n IQ
b e c a u sin g p o v e rty if p overty is causing IQ?
T h e Stability of IQ over the Life Span
T h e stability ot I Q over tim e in the general population has been studied

for decades, an d the m a in findings are not in m uch dispute am ong psy-
chom etricians. U p to ab out 4 or 5 years of age, measures of IQ are not ot
m u ch use in predicting later IQ . Indeed, you will get a better prediction of
the c h ild s IQ at age 15 by know ing his parents' IQ than by any test of the
c h ild given before age 5. Between ages 5 and 10, the tests rapidly become
m ore predictive o f adult IQ .141 After about the age o f 10, the IQ score is es
sentially stable w ith in the constraints ot measurement error.11O n the co m
paratively rare occasions w hen large changes in IQ are observed, there is
usually an obvious ex plan ation . The child had been bedridden w ith a long
illness before one of the tests, for example, or there was severe em otional
disturbance at the tim e of one or both of the tests.
T h e I Q score o f a n in d ivid u a l m ight h av e been h igher if he had been

raised in m o re fo r t u n a te circum stan ces. C h a p t e r 17 discusses this issue
in m ore d e ta il. But for p u rp o ses of Part II, the question is not what m ight
h a v e been but w h a t is. In discussions o f intelligence, p eo p le ob sess ahour
n a t u r e versu s nurture, t h in k in g that it m atters fu n d am en tally w hether
a p erson w ith a low I Q at, say, age 15 c a m e by that I Q throu gh a d e fi
c ie n t e n v ir o n m e n t or by bad luck in the genetic draw. Bur it d oes no t
m a tte r for the k in d s o f issues we consider in Part II. T h e A F Q T test
s c o r e s for th e N L S Y s a m p le were o b tain ed when the subjects were 15
to 23 years o f age, an d th eir IQ scores were already as deeply rooted a
fact a b o u t th e m as th e ir h e i g h t .161
S O C IO E C O N O M IC B A C K G R O U N D V E R S U S C O G N IT IV E
A B IL IT Y
For a c en tu ry after p o v e r t y b e c a m e a topic o f system atic analysis in the

m id - 1 8 0 0 s , it w as ta k e n for granted that there were different kinds o f
Poverty 131
poor p eople, w ith d e se rv in g a n d u n d e s e r v i n g b e i n g on e o f the p r i

mary d iv isio n s.7 S o m e p eop le were p o o r b e c a u s e o f c irc u m stan c e s b e
yond their c o n tro l; others were p o o r a s a r e su lt o f th eir o w n behavio r.
S u c h d istin c tio n s a m o n g types o f p o v e r t y w e r e still in tellectually r e
sp ectable into th e b egin n in g o f the K e n n e d y a d m in i s t r a t i o n in 1 9 6 1 .
By the end o f th e 1960s, they were n o t. P o v e r t y w a s n o w se e n as a p r o d
uct o f broad system ic causes, n o t o f i n d i v i d u a l c h arac teristics. T o say
otherwise was t o blam e the v i c t im .8 A c c o r d i n g l y , the tech n ical lit
erature ab o u t th e cau ses o f current p o v e r t y d e a l s a l m o s t exclusively in
ec o n o m ic and s o c ia l e x p la n a tio n s r a th e r t h a n w ith in dividual c h a r a c
teristics. M u c h o f this literature fo c u se s o n p o v e r t y a m o n g blacks a n d
its roots in rac ism an d d oes no t a p p ly to t h e to p i c at h an d: poverty
am o n g whites.
It seem s easy to m a k e the case th at p o v e r t y a m o n g w hites also arises
from social a n d e c o n o m ic causes. U s i n g t h e N L S Y , we convert in fo r
m atio n ab o u t th e e d u c atio n , o c c u p a tio n s , a n d i n c o m e of the parents o f
the N L S Y youth s into a n index o f s o c i o e c o n o m i c sta tu s ( S E S ) in w h ich
the h ig h e st scores in dicate a d v a n c e d e d u c a t i o n , affluence, and p r e s t i
gious o c c u p a tio n s. T h e lowest scores i n d i c a t e p overty, m eager e d u c a
tion, and the m o st m en ia l jobs. S u p p o s e w e t h e n take the S E S in d e x
and d iv id e all th e N L S Y youngsters in t o fi v e s o c i o e c o n o m i c classes on
exactly th e sam e basis that we d e fin e d c o g n i t i v e c la sse s (split into c a t
egories o f 5 - 2 0 - 5 0 - 2 0 - 5 p erc en t of th e p o p u l a t i o n ) . W e then ask,
W h a t p e rc e n ta g e o f p eo p le w ho c a m e fro m th o s e s o c i o e c o n o m i c b a c k
grounds were b e lo w the poverty line in t h e ir la t e 2 0 s an d early 30s (i.e.,
in 1 9 8 9 )? W e e x c lu d e those w h o w ere still in s c h o o l. T h e answer for
n o n -L a tin o w hites in the N L S Y s a m p le is s h o w n in the following tab le.
W h a t could be p lainer? H ardly any o f t h e lu ck y 5 p erc en t who had
grown up in the m o st a d v a n tag ed c i r c u m s t a n c e s w ere in poverty (o n ly
W h ite P o v e rty by P a r e n t s S o c io e c o n o m ic C l a s s
P a ren ts P ercen tag e in Poverty
Socioeconom ic C lass
Very hig h 3
H ig h 3
M id 7
Low 12
Very low 24
O ve rall average 7
3 p e rc e n t). M e an w h ile, the white children o f p aren ts in the lowest s o

c io e c o n o m ic class had a poverty rate o f 24 percent. R a n k h ath its p riv
ileges, a n d in the U n i t e d S ta te s one of those p rivileges is to confer
e c o n o m i c benefits o n your children. T h e way to av oid p overty in the
U n i t e d S ta te s is to be born into a n ad v a n tag ed home.
N o w we sw itch lenses. Instead o f using so c io e c o n o m ic class, we now
ask, W h a t p e rc en tag e of the people w ho are in the different cognitive
classes were below the poverty line in 1989? T h e answ er is in the n e x t
table. T h e r e are sim ilarities at the top o f the ladder. T h o s e in the top
W h ite P o v e rty b y C o g n itiv e C la s s

Cognitive C lass Percentage in Poverty
I Very bright 2
11 Bright 3
111 N orm al 6
IV Dull 16
V Very dull 30
O verall average 7
three c la sses 75 p erc en t of the p op u latio n in either s o c io e c o n o m ic

b a ck gro u n d or in telligence had similar poverty rates. But th en th e story
diverges. A s co g n itiv e ability fell below average, poverty ro.se e v e n m ore
steeply a m o n g the cognitiv ely d isa d v an tag ed than the s o c i o e c o n o m i
cally d isa d v an tag e d . For the very dull, in the bo tto m 5 p e rc e n t in IQ,
30 p e rc e n t were below the poverty line, fifteen tim es th e rate for the
p eo p le in the to p c o g n itiv e class.
T a k e n one variable at a time, the d ata fit both h yp oth eses: Poverty
is a sso c ia te d with s o c io e c o n o m ic d isa d v an tag e and ev en m ore strongly
w ith c o g n itiv e d isa d v an tag e. W h ic h is really e x p la in in g the r e la tio n
sh ip ? A n d so we in troduce a way o f assessing the c o m p a r a tiv e roles o f
in tellig en c e an d so c io e c o n o m ic backgro u nd , which we will be using
sev era l tim es in the course o f the subsequent chapters.
W e w'ant to d isen tan g le the c o m p a rativ e roles o f c o g n i tiv e ability an d
s o c i o e c o n o m i c background in e x p la in in g poverty. T h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i
ab le, poverty, h as just two possible values: Yes, the fam ily h a d an in co m e
below th e poverty line in 1989, or no, its in co m e was a b o v e the poverty
Poverty 1.33
line. T h e s ta t istic a l m e th o d is a type o f regression an a ly sis sp ecifically

d esigned to e stim a te relatio n sh ip s for a y e s- n o k in d o f d e p e n d e n t vari-
able.19 In o ur first lo o k at this q u e stio n , we s e e h o w m u c h poverty d e
pends on three in d ep en d en t variables: IQ , ag e , and p a re n ta l
so c io e c o n o m ic status (hereafter called p a r e n ta l S E S )- T h e s a m p le
consists o f all w h ites in the N L S Y w h o were ou t o f sc h o o l in 1 9 8 9 .1101
We are asking a straightforw ard q u estio n :
G i v e n in fo rm a tio n ab o u t intelligence, s o c i o e c o n o m i c status, and a g e ,

what is our best e stim a te o f the p robability t h a t a fam ily was below th e
poverty line in 1989?
for w hich a co m p u ter, using the su itable softw are, c a n p ro v id e an a n

swer. T h e n we a sk a se c o n d question:
Taking the other factors into account, how m u c h r e m a in in g effect does an y

one of the in d e p e n d e n t variab les h a v e on t h e probability o f b ein g in
poverty?
for w hich the c o m p u t e r c a n also p ro v id e an answer.
W h e n we ap p ly th ese q u estio n s to th e N L S Y d a ta , the figure b elo w

shows w hat em erges. First, age in itself is n o t im p o r ta n t in d e te rm in in g
w hether s o m e o n e is in poverty o n c e th e o t h e r fac to rs o f in tellig en c e
and p a re n ta l fam ily b a ck g ro u n d are ta k e n in t o a c c o u n t .11Li S tatistically,
its im p ac t is negligible.
T h i s leaves us with the two c o m p e t in g e x p l a n a t i o n s th at p ro m p te d
the analysis in th e first place: the s o c i o e c o n o m i c b a ck g ro u n d in w h i c h
the N L S Y you th grew up, a n d his own IQ sc o re .
T h e b lac k lin e lets you ask, Im ag in e a p e r s o n in the N L S Y w h o
c o m e s from a fam ily o f exactly av erag e s o c i o e c o n o m i c back g ro u n d a n d
exactly av e rag e a g e .1121 W h a t are th is p e r s o n s c h a n c e s o f b e in g in
poverty if h e is very sm art? Very d u m b ? " To fin d o u t his c h a n c e s if h e is
smart, look tow ard th e far righ t-han d part o f the grap h . A p erson w i t h
an I Q 2 S D s a b o v e th e m e an h as an I Q o f 1 3 0 , w h ic h is h igh e r t h a n 9 8
p ercent o f the p o p u la tio n . R e a d i n g across to th e v e rtic al axis o n the left,
that p e rso n h as less t h a n a 2 percent c h a n c e o f b e i n g in p overty ( alw ay s
assu m in g th at h is so c io e c o n o m ic b a c k g r o u n d was a v e r a g e ) . N o w th i n k
ab ou t s o m e o n e w h o is far below a v e ra g e in c o g n i t i v e ability, with a n I Q
2 S D s below th e m e a n (an IQ o f 70, h i g h e r t h a n ju st 2 percen t o f th e
134 Cognitive Classes arui Social Behavior
T h e c o m p a ra tiv e ro le s of I Q an d p are n ta l S E S in d e te rm in in g
w h e th e r y o u n g w h ite a d u lts a re b elow th e p o v e rty lin e
P r o b a b ility o f b ein g in p o v erty

30 % -
(-2 SDs) ( +2SDM
N ote: For com puting the plot, age and either S E S (tor the black curve) or IQ (tor the gray
curve) were set at their m ean values.
p o p u la tio n ). L o o k at the far left-hand part of the graph. Now , our im a g

inary p e rso n with an average so c io e c o n o m ic backgrou nd has ab out a 26
percen t c h a n c e of being in poverty. T h e gray line lets you ask, I m a g
ine a p e rso n in the N L S Y w ho is exactly average in IQ and age. W h a t
are this p e r s o n s c h a n c e s o f b ein g in poverry if he c a m e from an e x
tremely a d v a n ta g e d so c io e c o n o m ic background? A n ex trem ely de-
Refresher
1/2 standard deviation below and above the mean cuts oft the Mst and
69th percentiles. A 1/2 S D difference is substantial.
1 standard deviation below and above the mean cuts off the 16th and
84th percentiles. A 1 S D difference is big.
2 standard deviations below and above the mean cuts off the 2d and
98th percentiles. A 2 S D difference is very big.
A standard score means one that is expressed in terms of standard d e
viations,
Poverty 13 5
prived s o c i o e c o n o m i c b a ck g ro u n d ? A s the gray line in dicates, the p r o b

ability ot being in poverty rises it he was r a ise d by p aren ts who were low
in s o c i o e c o n o m i c status , but only gradually.
In general, th e visual a p p e aran ce ot the g r a p h lets you see quickly the
result th at em erges from a close analysis: C o g n i t i v e ability i.s m ore im
p ortant th an p a re n ta l S E S in d e te rm in in g p o v e rt y .1M|
T h is d o e s n o t m e an that s o c i o e c o n o m i c b a ck g ro u n d is irrelevant.
T h e m a g n itu d e ot the effect show n in the g r a p h an d its statistical reg
ularity m akes so c io e c o n o m i c status sig n itic a n t in a statistical sense. T o
put it into policy terms, the starting line r e m a in s unequal in A m e r i c a n
society, e v e n a m o n g whites. O n the o th e r h a n d , the m ag n itu de of the
d isa d v a n ta g e is no t as large as o n e m ight e x p e c t. For ex a m p le , im ag in e
a white p erson born in 1961 w ho c a m e fro m an unusually d eprived s o
c io e c o n o m ic b a ck gro u n d : parents w ho w o rk ed at the most m en ia l ot
jobs, ofte n u n em p lo y ed , neith er of w h o m h a d a h igh school e d u c a tio n
(a d escrip tio n o f w h at it m ean s to h a v e a so c io e c o n o m i c status in d ex
score in the 2d c e n tile on so c io e c o n o m i c c la s s ). If that person has an IQ
of 100 n o th in g special, just: the n a t io n a l av e ra g e the c h a n c e ot
falling below a p overty-level in co m e in 1 9 8 9 was 11 percent. It is nor
:ero , and it is n o t as sm all as the risk of p o v e rty for so m eo n e from a less
p u n ish in g e n v ir o n m e n t , but in m any ways this is an astonishing s t a t e
m en t of progress. C on versely, su p po se that the person c om es from the
2d cen tile in I Q but his parents were a v e r a g e in s o c io e c o n o m ic status
w hich m e an s th a t his parents worked at sk illed jobs, had at least fin
ished h igh sc h o o l, and had an av erage in c o m e . D espite c o m in g from
that solid b a ck g ro u n d , his odds o f being in p o v e rty are 26 percent, m ore
th an twice as g reat as the odds facin g the p e r s o n from a deprived h o m e
hut with av e ra g e in telligence.
In sum: Low in tellig en ce m ean s a c o m p a r a t i v e l y high risk of poverty.
If a white ch ild ot the n ext g e n e ra tio n c o u ld be giv en a c h o ic e b e tw e e n
bein g d is a d v a n ta g e d in s o c io e c o n o m ic s ta t u s or d isa d v a n ta g e d in i n t e l
ligence, there is no q u estio n ab ou t the righ t c h o ice .
E d ucation
N o w let us c o n sid e r w hether e d u c a tio n really e x p la in s what is g o in g on .

O n e fam iliar h y p o th e sis is that if you c a n o n ly get people to stick with
sc h o o l lon g e n o u g h , they will be able to stay out of poverty ev en if they
h a v e m od est te st scores.
A s in su b se q u e n t chapters, we will c o n s i d e r tw o ed u c atio n al g roup s:
13 6 Cognitive Classes and Social Behavior
I n th e w h i te h ig h s c h o o l sam p le, high I Q m a k e s a d iffe r e n c e in

a v o i d i n g p o v e r t y ; in t h e college sam p le, hardly a n y o n e w a s p o o r
P r o b a b ility o f b e in g in p overty
25% -
(-2 SDs) (+.1SDs)
N o te: For co m pu tin g the plot, age Lind either S E S (tor rhe black curv e ) or 10 (ter the ijray
cu rve) were set nr their m ean values.
w h ite p e o p le w ith a h i g h sc h o o l degree ( n o more, n o less) and those

with a b a c h e l o r s d eg re e ( n o more, no less). T h e figure a b o v e show s the
results w h e n the p o v e r t y rates for these two groups are con sid ered s e p
arately.
First, lo o k a t the p air of lines for the college graduates. We show them
o n ly for v a lu e s gre a te r t h a n the m ean, to avoid no n sen sic a l im p lic atio n s
(su c h as s h o w i n g p r e d ic te d poverty rate for a college grad u ate with an
IQ tw o s ta n d a r d d e v i a t i o n s below the m e an ). T h e basic lesson o f the
g r a p h is t h a t p e o p le w h o c a n com p lete a b a c h e lo rs d egree se ld o m end
up poor, n o m a tte r w h at. T h i s m akes sense. A lth o u g h in c o m e varies im
p o rta n tly for c o lle g e g ra d u a te s at different cognitive levels (as we d is
c u sse d in C h a p t e r s 2 th r o u g h 4 ), the floor incom e is likely to be well
a b o v e the p o v e rty line. C o l l e g e h as e c o n o m ic value in d e p e n d e n t o f
c o g n i t iv e ability, w h e th e r as a credential, for the skills th at are acquired,
or as a n i n d i c a t o r o f p e rso n a l qualities besides IQ (d ilig en c e, p ersis
t e n c e ) t h a t m a k e for e c o n o m i c success in life. It is im possible with these
d a t a to d is e n t a n g l e w h a t contribu tions these different e x p la n a tio n s
m ake.
Poverty 137
T h e tw o lines sh ow in g the resu lts fo r h i g h s c h o o l g ra d u a te s are m u c h

m ore in form ative. T h e s e p e o p le are t a k i n g a h o m o g e n e o u s a n d m o d e st
set of e d u c a tio n a l skills to the w o r k p l a c e . W i t h i n this group, IQ h a s a
strong effect in d e p e n d e n t o f s o c i o e c o n o m i c b a c k g r o u n d . A y o u n g a d u lt
at the b o tto m 2 p erc en t o f IQ h a d a b o u t a 2 4 p e r c e n t c h a n g e of b e i n g
in poverty c o m p a r e d to less t h a n a 2 p ercent, c h a n c e for o n e at t h e to p
2 percen t of IQ ( g iv e n average a g e a n d s o c i o e c o n o m i c b a c k g r o u n d , a n d
just a high sc h o o l d ip lo m a ). T h e p a r e n t s b a c k g r o u n d m ad e m u c h less
difference. C o g n i t i v e ability still h a s a m a j o r effect o n p o v e rty e v e n
within groups with identical e d u c a t i o n .
C O M P L IC A T IN G T H E I S S U E : P O V E R T Y A M O N G C H I L D R E N
H ow d o es the in form ation we h a v e ju st p r e s e n t e d h e lp in trying t o u n

derstand the n atu re o f poverty in A m e r i c a ? T o illustrate, c o n s i d e r o n e
ot the m ost p ain ful topics in r e c e n t A m e r i c a n so cial policy, the g r o w
ing p rop ortion of p oor who c o n s is t o f c h il d r e n . A s of the 1991 figu res,
22 percen t o f all child ren u n d er the a g e o f 15 were below th e o ffic ia l
poverty line, tw ice as high as th e p o v e r t y rare a m o n g those age 1 5 anti
over.1'11 It is a sc an d alously h ig h figu re in a c o u n try as w ealthy a s th e
U n ite d S ta te s. Presum ably e v e r y r e a d e r w is h e s for policies that w ou ld
reduce poverty a m o n g children.
Why are so m an y child ren in p o v e r t y in a ric h country? In p o litic a l
d ebate, the q u e s tio n is usually g lo s s e d o v e r. A n im p ressio n is c o n v e y e d
that poverty a m o n g child ren is s o m e t h i n g t h a t h as g row n e v e ry w h e re
in the U n i t e d S ta te s, for all k i n d s o f fa m il ie s , tor reasons v a g u e ly c o n
n ected with e c o n o m i c troubles, u n g e n e r o u s s o c ia l p o lic ies d u r in g the
1980s, a n d d isc rim in a tio n a g a in st w o m e n a n d m in o rity groups.
S p e c ia lists w h o h a v e follow ed t h e s e fig u r e s k n o w th at th is e x p l a n a
tion is m is l e a d in g .1s Poverty a m o n g c h i l d r e n h a s always b e e n m u c h
higher in fam ilies h ead ed by a s in g le w o m a n , w h e th e r she is d i v o r c e d
or n ev er m arried. For fam ilies h e a d e d by a s in g le w om an , th e p o v e rty
rate in 1991 w as 3 6 p ercent; for all o t h e r A m e r i c a n fam ilies, 6 p e r c e n t . "
Indeed, the n a t io n a l poverty rate for h o u s e h o l d s h e a d e d by a s in g le
w om an has b e e n a b o v e 30 p e r c e n t s i n c e o f f i c ia l poverty figures b e g a n
to be av aila b le in 1 9 5 9 .17 T h e e q u a t i o n is b ru ta lly sim ple: T h e h i g h e r
the p ro p o rtio n o f child ren w h o liv e in h o u s e h o l d s h e a d e d by sin g le
w om en, then, ceteris paribus, th e h i g h e r t h e p r o p o r t i o n of c h i l d r e n w h o
will live in poverty. A n im p o r ta n t p a r t o f t h e in c r e a sin g c h il d p o v e r t y
1 38 C'ognitivc Glasses and Social Behavior
in the U n i t e d S t a t e s is owed to the increasing p ro p o rtio n ot children

w h o live in th o se fa m ilie s.1'1' T h e political left and right differ in their
view s of w h a t p o lic ie s to follow' in response to this state o f affairs, hut
recently they h a v e broadly agreed o n the jo in t roles o f gen d er and
c h a n g e s in fam ily structure in pushing up the figures tor child poverty.
Poverty A m o n g C h ild ren : T he Role o f the M other's I Q
W h a t d o e s I Q add to this picture? It allows us to focus sharply on who

is p oor a n d why, an d to dispense with a num ber o f m istak e n ideas. To
see how, let us con sid er wom en, and specifically w om en with c h il
d r e n . " 11 H e r e is th e graph that results when we ask how often m others
w ith differing IQ s a n d differing family structures suffer from poverty. (In
t h e figure, the effects o f the m o th ers s o c io e c o n o m ic b a ck g ro u n d are
h eld c o n sta n t, as are the num ber o f children, which is factored into the
c a l c u l a t io n o f th e poverty line.)
T h e first, g larin g point of the figure is that marriage is a powerful
p overty p r e v e n t a tiv e , and this is true for w om en even of m odest cogni-
T h e role of the m o th e r s I Q in d e te rm in in g
w hich w hite c h ild ren are poor
P r o b a b ility o f b ein g in poverty as IQ g o e s from lo w to high
Very low Very high

( -2SDs) |Q (+2.SDM
N o te s: For com pu tin g the plot, age and S E S were set at their mean values.
Poverty ' 139
tive ability. A m arried white w o m a n w ith c h i l d r e n w h o is m arkedly b e

low average in c o g n itiv e ability a t th e 1 6 t h c e n tile , say, one stan d a rd
d e v ia tio n below the m e a n from a n a v e r a g e so c io e c o n o m ic hack-
ground had o n ly a 10 percent p r o b a b ilit y o f poverty.
T h e s e c o n d p o in t o f the graph is t h a t t o be w ith o u t a h usban d in the
house is to run a high risk of poverty, e v e n if the w o m a n was raised
in an av e rag e s o c io e c o n o m ic b a c k g r o u n d . S u c h a w o m a n , with e v e n
an average IQ , ran a 33 percent c h a n c e of b e in g in poverty. If sh e
was unlucky e n o u g h to hav e an I Q of o n ly 8 5 , she had more th an a
50 percent c h a n c e five rimes as h i g h a s th e risk faced by a m arried
w o m an of id en tical IQ and s o c i o e c o n o m i c b a c k g r o u n d . E v en a w o m a n
with a c o n sp icu o u sly high IQ o f 1 3 0 ( t w o s ta n d a r d d eviatio n s a b o v e
the m e a n ) w as predicted to h a v e a p o v e r t y ra te o f 10 percent if she
was a single m other, which is q u ite h i g h c o m p a r e d to white w o m e n
in general. P erh aps surprisingly, it d id n o t m a k e m u c h difference w hich
of the three kin d s of n o n m a r r ia g e s e p a r a t i o n , d iv orce, or no m a t '
riage at all was in volved. T h e resu lts fo r all three groups of w o m e n
were drastically different from th e resu lts for married wom en, an d
quite sim ilar to e a c h other (w h ich is w hy rh e y are grouped in the figure.)
T h e third o b v io u s co n c lu sio n is t h a t I Q is e x tr e m e ly im portant in d e
term in in g poverty a m o n g w om en w i t h o u t a h u s b a n d present. A p overty
rate oi 10 p erc en t tor w om en with I Q s of 1 3 0 m a y be h ig h com pared to
so m e stan d a rd s, but it is tiny c o m p a r e d t o th e steeply rising p ro b a b ili
ties of p overty th at characterize w o m e n w i t h b elo w average c o g n itiv e
ability.
Poverty A m o n g C hildren: T he Rule o f the M o th e r's Socioeconom ic

B ackground
N o w we pursue the sam e issue b u t in t e r m s o f so c io e c o n o m ic b a c k

ground. R e m e m b e r that the steep d o w n w a r d c u r v e in the figure a b o v e
for unm arried m o th ers is rhe effect o f I Q a fte r h o l d in g the effects of s o
c io e c o n o m ic status c on sta n t. W h a r is t h e role o f so c io e c o n o m ic b a c k
ground after we tak e IQ in to a c c o u n t ? N o t m u c h , as the next figu re
shows.
We used th e sam e scale on the v e r t i c a l a x i s in b o th o f the p re c e d in g
graphs to m a k e the c o m p a riso n w i t h I Q easier. T h e c o n c lu sio n is t h a t
n o m atter h o w rich and well e d u c a t e d t h e p a r e n t s of rhe m oth er m ig h t
hav e be e n , a sep arated, d iv o rc ed , o r n e v e r - m a r r i e d w h ite w o m an w ith
ch ild ren and an av erage IQ was still l o o k i n g a t nearly a 30 p e rc e n t
T h e role of the m o th e rs socioeconom ic back g ro u n d in

determining w hich white children are p oor
Probability o f being in poverty as

parental S E S goes from low to high
70% -
60% -
50% - W hile m others w ho a re separated,

divorced , o r n e v e r m arried
40% -
/
3 0% -
20 % - M a rrie d w hile m others
10%- J
o% T
Vcrv low Very high
(-:'SD s)
Parental S E S 1+2 .SHM
N ote: For com puting the plot, aye and IQ were net at their m ean valuev
c h a n c e o f being below the poverty line, far ab ove the usual level tor
w h ites a n d far above the level facing a w o m an of a v erag e so c io e c o n o m ic
b a c k g r o u n d but superior IQ. We c a n n o t even be sure th at h igh e r so-
c i o e c o n o m i c background reduces the poverty rate at all for unm arried
w o m e n after the con tribu tion of IQ has been e xtrac ted ; the dow nw ard
s lo p e of th e line plotted in the graph d o es not ap p ro ac h statistica l s ig
n i f ic a n c e .12' 1
T h e r e are few clearer argum ents for bringing co g n itiv e ability into
the an a ly sis o f social problem s. C o n s id e r the h u nd red s of articles writ
ten a b o u t poverty a m o n g children an d about the effects of sin g le-p a r
e n t fa m ilie s on poverty. O f course, these are im portant factors: C h ild r e n
are m ore o fte n poor than adults. Fam ily breakup is responsible for a m a
jo r p o r tio n of the increase in child poverty. But if analysts are trying to
u n d e r s t a n d the high rates of poverty a m o n g children, it m ust be d o n e
ag a in st th e background that w h atev er oth e r factors increase the risk o f
p o v e rty a m o n g unmarried m others, they hit unm arried m oth ers at low
Poverty 141
levels of in tellig en c e m uch harder t h a n they d o th o se at h ig h levels of

in telligen c e e v e n after s o c io e c o n o m ic b a c k g r o u n d is held c o n sta n t.
H O L D IN G B O T H C O M P L IC A T IO N S A N D P O L IC Y T H O U G H T S
A T BAY
You h av e b een follow ing a c o m m o n p ro c ess in .social s c ie n c e . A n ini-

tially sim ple issue b ec o m es successively m ore c o m p l i c a t e d . A n d we h av e
barely g o tte n s ta rte d an analysis in a t e c h n i c a l jo u rn a l s e l d o m has as
few in d e p e n d e n t variables as the on es we h a v e e x a m in e d . For th a t m a t
ter, even this sim p lified analysis rep resents o n ly the en d result o f a long
process. In the a t t a c h e d n ote, we d esc rib e h o w big the rest of the ice
berg is.1' 11
C o m p l e x analysis has both merits a n d faults. T h e m erit is that the
c o m p lica tio n s are part of reality. E i n ste in s in ju n c t io n th at solu tions
should be as sim p le as possible, but no sim p ler, still a p p lies. A t the sam e
time, social s c ie n c e often seem s more in n e e d of the inverse in jun ctio n ,
to in troduce as m u ch c o m plex ity as n ecessary, blit n o more. C o m p l i c a
tions can m ak e us forget what we were trying to u n d erstan d in the first
place. H ere is w here we believe the situ a tio n stan ds:
By c o m p lic a tin g the picture, we raise a d d iti o n a l q u estio n s: E d u c atio n
is im p ortan t in affec tin g poverty; the a p p r o p r ia te n e x t step is to explore
how in telligen c e an d so c io e c o n o m ic status a r e related to years ot e d u
cation . M a rria g e is im p ortan t in d e te r m in in g p o v erty ; we sh o u ld explore
how in tellig en c e a n d so c io e c o n o m ic sta tu s are related to marriage.
T h e s e things we shall do in su b seq u en t c h ap ters.
But the sim p le picture, with only IQ , p a r e n ta l S E S , and a g e in the
equation, restricted to our all-white sam p le , c o n t i n u e s to tell a story of
its own. A m a jo r th e m e in the public d ia l o g u e in th e U n i t e d S t a t e s has
been that s o c i o e c o n o m i c d isa d v a n ta g e is th e prim ary d riv in g force b e
hind poverty. T h e sim ple picture shows that it just isn t so for w h ite s.1" 1
T h e high rates o f poverty that afflict c e rtain s e g m e n t s of the w h ite p o p
ulation are d e te rm in e d m ore by in te llig e n c e t h a n by s o c i o e c o n o m i c
b ackground. T h e force an d relevan ce o f th is sta t e m e n t d o e s no t seem
to us d im in ish e d by the c o m p lic a tio n s it d o e s no t e m b ra c e .
Indeed, now th at we are returning to b a sic s, let us r e m e m b e r s o m e
th in g else that c o u ld b e ov erlo oked in the w e lte r of reg ression analyses.
T h e poverty rate for whites in C l a s s V was 30 p e r c e n t a p e r c e n ta g e
usually a sso c ia te d with poverty in p oor urb a n n e ig h b o r h o o d s . E th n ic ally
142 Cognitive Classes and Social Bchaviur
a n d culturally, th e se are supposed to be the ad v a n ta g e d A m e ric a n s:

w h ite s of E u r o p e a n d e s c e n t . Rut they hav e one big th in g w orking against
t h e m : th e y are n o t very sm art.
L ik e m a n y o th e r disabilities, low intelligence is n o t the fault of the
in d iv id u a l. E v e r y th in g we know about the causes ol c o g n itiv e ability,
g e n e t i c a n d e n v i r o n m e n t a l , tells us that by the time p eo p le grow to an
a g e at w h ic h th e y c a n he c on sid ered responsible moral agents, their [Q
is fairly well set. M a n y readers will find that, before writing a n o th e r
w o rd , we h a v e alread y m a d e the case for sw eeping policy c h a n g e s m e a n t
t o rectify w h a t c a n o n ly be interpreted as a palpably unfair result.
A n d yet b e t w e e n this an d the ch ap ters that will e x p lo re those policy
issu es s t r e t c h a few h u n d re d pages o f intervening analysis. T h e r e is a rea-
s o n for th e m . Ry a d d in g poverty to the portrait of c o g n itiv e stratifica-
n o n d e s c r ib e d in Tart I, we h op e to have set the terms of a larger p roblem
t h a n i n c o m e in equality. T h e issue is not simply how p e o p le w ho are poor
th r o u g h n o fau lt o f th eir o w n c an be m ad e not poor but how we all of
us, of all a b ilitie s an d in c o m e levels c a n live together in a society in
w h i c h all of us c a n p u rsu e happiness. C h a n g i n g policy in ways th at a f
fe c t p o v e r t y rate s m ay well be part o f that solution. Rut as we ob served
at rhe o u t s e t of the c h ap ter, poverty itself has been d e c lin in g as various
d i s c o n t e n t s h a v e b e e n rising during this century, and curing poverty is
n o t n e c e ssa rily g o in g to d o m uch to cure the other p ain s that afflict
A m e r i c a n society. T h i s c h a p t e r s analysis should establish that the t r a
d i t i o n a l s o c i o e c o n o m i c analysis o f the origins of poverty is in ad eq u a te
a n d t h a t in te ll i g e n c e plays a crucial role. We are just at the b e g in n in g
ot u n d e r s t a n d i n g how in telligen c e interacts with the o th e r p roblem s in
A m e r i c a s crisis.
Chapter 6
Schooling
Lem'ing school before getting a high school diplom a in the old days iuas u s u
ally not a sign of failure. The youngster had nor dropped out hut simply m oved
on. As Lite as 19 4 0 , fewer than h alf of 18-year-olds got a high school diplom a.
But in the postw ar era, the high school diplom a becam e the norm. N ow , not
having one is a social disability o f some gravity.
The usual picture o f high school dropouts fo c u se s on their socioeconom ic
circum stances. It is true that most of them a re from poor fam ilies, but the re
lationship of socioeconomics to school d rop ou t is not sim ple. A m ong w h ites,
almost no one with an IQ in the top q u arter o f the distribution fails to get a
high school education, no m atter how poor their fa m ilie s. D ropout is extremely
rare throughout the upper half of the I Q distribution. Socioeconom ic back
ground has its most powerful effect at the low est end of the social spectrum ,
am ong students who are already below av erag e in intelligence. Being poor has
a small effect on dropping out of school huLperuleru of IQ ; it has a sizable in
dependent effect on whether a person finishes school with a regular diplom a
or a high school equivalency certificate.
To raise the chances of getting a college degree, it helps to be in the upper
h alf of the distribution for either IQ or socioeconom ic statu s. B u t the a d v a n
tage of a high IQ outweighs that of high sta tu s. Sim ilarly, the disadvantage of
a low IQ outweighs that o f low sta tu s. Y oungsters from poor backgrounds with
high IQ s are likely to get through college these d ay s, but those with low I Q s ,
even if they com e from well-to-do b a ck g ro u n d s, are not.
O
i a ll th e so c ial b e h a v io rs th a t m ig h t h e lin k e d t o c o g n itiv e a b ilit y ,
s c h o o l d r o p o u t p rio r to h ig h s c h o o l g r a d u a t io n is th e m o st o b v i
ous. L o w in te llig e n c e is o n e o f th e be st p r e d ic to r s ot s c h o o l fa ilu re , a n d
s tu d e n ts w h o fail a grade or tw o are lik e ly to h a v e th e least a t t a c h m e n t
to s ch o o l. A n d yet this r e la t io n s h ip , as s t r o n g as it is n ow , is also n e w .
T h e very c o n c e p t o f sc h o o l failure is a m odern in ven tion . In the era of

the o n e - r o o m sc h o o lh o u se , students ad v a n c ed at their own pace. T h e r e
were no form al grade levels, no p ro m o tio n s to the n ex t tirade, h en ce no
way to f a i l . 1
D r o p p in g o u t is an ev e n m ore recent concept, cre ate d by the a s
s u m p ti o n that it is n o rm a l to rem ain in school th ro ugh age 17. U n t i l re
cently, it w asn t typical. In 1900, the high sch ool d ip lo m a was the
preserve of a tiny m inority of A m e r ic a n youth: T h e n u m b er of those
w h o got o n e a m o u n te d to only 6 percent of the crop o f p o ten tial seniors
th at year. T h is figure, k n o w n as the graduation ratio, is c alc ulated as the
p e r c e n ta g e o f the 17-year-old p o p u la tio n .2 Perhaps e v e n m ore startling,
it was no r until the b eg in n in g ot World W ar 11 that the g rad u atio n ra
tio first passed the 50 p erc en t mark. T h e figure shows the story from
1 9 0 0 to 1 9 9 0 .1,1
T h e tren d lin e s that overlie the d ata indicate two broad p h ases in this
n in ety-year history. T h e first phase, from 1908 until the early 1920s, fe a
tured m o d erate e x p a n sio n o f high school education. It did nor ap p ear
m o d e ra te at the time the graduation rate m ore t h a n d o u b led from
1 9 0 0 to 1922 but the grow th was no n eth eless m od erate by c o m p a r i
so n with steep surge from 1922 until the beginning ot W orld W ar 11.
In th e fir s t h a lf o f th e c e n tu ry , the
h igh sc h o o l d ip lo m a b ec o m es th e n orm
G ra d u a tio n ratio
, - l---------1------ 1------- 1--------1------- 1------- 1--------1------- 1------- 1

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
vSimra : DBS 1992, Table 95; U .S . Bureau of the C ensus, 1975, Table H 598-601.
Schooling 145
T h is was the o p e n in g o f the s e c o n d g ro w th p h ase , w h ic h lasted , w ith

an in terru p tio n for W orld W ar II, until 1964- T h e story s in c e 1 9 6 4 h a s
been m ix ed . G r a d u a t io n rates stalled d u r in g th e last h a l f of the 1 9 6 0 s
a n d th e n reversed during the 1970s. T h e tren d sin c e 1 9 8 0 h a s b e e n u n
certainly an d shallowly upward. A s of 1 9 9 2 , the g r a d u a t i o n ratio for 17-
year-olds s to o d at 76 p ercent, n ea r the 1 9 6 9 h i g h o f 77 p e r c e n t. T h e
prop ortion o f p eo p le who even tually g r a d u a te or get a h igh s c h o o l e q u i v
alency c ertificate now stan ds at ab o u t 8 6 p e r c e n t tor the p o p u l a t i o n a s
a w h o le .141
A m e r i c a n s today take it for g ran ted t h a t the g o a l is to g r a d u a te e v e r y
o n e an d th a t a h igh sch ool d ro p o u t r a t e is a so c ia l evil. But ea rlie r
thinkers, e v e n th ose in our liberal tra d itio n , were d u b io u s a b o u t e d u
c atin g the en tire p o p u la tio n bey o n d the r u d im e n t s o f literacy. V o l t a i r e s
view th a t th e lower classes sh ou ld be g u id e d , n o t e d u c a t e d , w as t y p i
cal until this century.' Even early in this century, m a n y ob serv ers fe are d
that u n q u alified youngsters were b e in g e d u c a t e d bey o n d th e ir a b ilitie s.
We m ust turn b a c k the c lo c k , o n e p r o m in e n t e d u c a to r w rote in 1 9 3 6 ,
to tak e so m e five m illion boys a n d girls from the e d u c a t io n a l d o l e . "
A n d yet w h e n the p sy c h o m e tric ia n s s o u g h t to d o c u m e n t the fear t h a t
the country was trying to ed u c ate the in e d u c a b le , they fo u n d little e v
id ence for it. O n e investigator, Frank F in c h , a sse m b le d a l l of t h e c o m
p e te n t studies o f the in telligence of h i g h s c h o o l s tu d e n ts c o n d u c t e d
from 1916 (th e earliest study he c ou ld fin d ) to 1 9 4 2 . T h e m e a n I Q o f
n in th graders in these studies was 105; the m e a n IQ o f the tw e lfth
graders or g ra d u a te s was 107, trivially d iffe r e n t.171 T h e d a t a su g g est t h a t
the large n u m b e r o f youngsters w h o d r o p p e d o u t b e tw e e n n in th g r a d e
and h igh sc h o o l g rad u ation av eraged less t h a n 105 in I Q , but n o t by
m uch (a c a l c u la t io n e x p la in e d in th e n o t e ) . 181
F in ch foun d n o in creasing trend o v e r tim e in th e I Q gap b e t w e e n
d rop ou ts a n d g raduates du ring the early p a r t o f th e century. R e p l i c a t i n g
the story t h a t we described regard ing the c o l le g e level in C h a p t e r 1, t h e
first d e c a d e s o f th e century saw A m e r i c a n h igh s c h o o l e d u c a t i o n m u s h
room in size w ith out h a v in g to d ip m u c h d e e p e r in to t h e in te ll e c t u a l
pool. T h is p ro c e ss could no t go o n forever. A s t h e h igh s c h o o l d i p l o m a
b e c a m e the n o rm , the d rop ou ts were likely to h e c o m e m o re s e lf- s e le c te d
for low IQ, a n d so indeed it transpired.
W e h av e n o t b een able to d e te rm in e e x a c t l y w h e n t h e gap b e t w e e n
n o n g ra d u a te s a n d graduates b e g a n to o p e n up. P ro b ab ly it was w i d e n
ing e v e n by the early 1940s. By th e early 1 950 s, a study in Iow a f o u n d
a t e n - p o in t g ap in I Q between dropouts an d high sch ool g rad u ates.1' A n

o t h e r study, in 194 9, of 2,600 students w ho had been giv en an IQ rest
in th e s e v e n t h grade, found a gap between the gradu ates an d nongrad-
u a te s of a b o u t thirteen IQ points, close to the I Q s stan dard d eviatio n
o f 1 5 . 10 T h e p rop ortion o f students g etting a h igh sc h o o l d ip lo m a had
r e a c h e d a b o u t 55 percent by then. By the spring o f 1960, w h en 70 per-
c e n t o f stu d e n ts were graduating, the data from Project T A L E N T the
large, n a tio n a lly representative sam ple of high sch ool students m e n
tio n e d in C h a p t e r 1 indicate a gap eq u iva len t to alm o st sixteen IQ
p o i n t s b e tw e e n the ac ad em ic aptitude of those w h o grad u ated and those
w h o did no t, slightly m ore than a standard d e v ia tio n .1" 1T h is is t a n t a
m o u n t to saying t h a t the average dropout had an IQ th a t put him at the
1 5 th c e n tile of th o se who graduated.
T h e situ atio n seem s to have remained roughly the sam e sin ce then. By
th e s tan d a rd current definition of the population that gets a high school
e d u c a t i o n m e an in g either a d iplom a or by passing a n e q u ivalen cy e x
a m i n a t i o n the N L S Y data reveal that the m ean score of those w ho get
a h ig h sc h o o l ed u c atio n is 1.28 standard deviations higher than those
w h o d o not. C o m p a r in g those who get the ordinary h igh sc h o o l dip lom a
w ith all th o se who left high school before doing so (in clu din g those who
later get a n e q u iva len cy certificate), the g ap is 1.02 standard deviations.
W H IT E H IG H S C H O O L D R O P O U T IN T H E N L S Y
W h o d ro p s out of high school these days? T h e following table shows

th e story for N L S Y whites in the various c ognitive classes. T h e results
F a ilu re to G e t a H ig h S c h o o l
E d u c a tio n A m o n g W h ite s
Percentage Who Did N o t

G raduate or P ass a H igh
C ognitive Class School Equivalency Exam
I Very bright 0
II Bright 0J
III N orm al 6
IV D ull 35
V Very dull 55
O verall average 9
1The actual figure was 0.4 percent.

Schooling 147
could hardly be starker. A m o n g w h ite s in th e t o p q u a i t i l e ( C l a s s e s I a n d

II together), virtually every one g o t a h i g h s c h o o l e d u c a t i o n . In th e b o t
tom quartile o f the IQ d istrib u tio n ( C l a s s e s IV a n d V to g e t h e r ) , 3 9 p e r
c en t of w h ites did n o t.1121 T h i s h u g e d i s c r e p a n c y is a lso p r e d ic ta b le ,
however, g iv e n the close r e la tio n sh ip b e t w e e n I Q a n d e d u c a t i o n a l a t
ta in m e n t so pred ictable th a t we s h o u l d p a u se for a m o m e n t b efo re
v iew in g d ro p o u t rates with alarm . Is a .39 p e r c e n t d r o p o u t rate for s t u
d ents in the lowest quartile o f IQ h i g h ? F r o m o n e p e rsp e c t iv e , it se e m s
so, c o n sid e rin g how essential e d u c a t i o n a p p e a r s to be for m a k i n g a l iv
ing. From a n o t h e r p erspective, it is r e m a r k a b l e t h a t o v e r 6 0 p e r c e n t of
white youth s with IQs under 9 0 d i d g e t a h i g h s c h o o l e d u c a t i o n . It is
particularly rem arkab le that n ea rly h alf o f th e y o u th s in C l a s s V, w ith
IQ s o f 75 a n d under, c o m p le te d a h i g h s c h o o l e d u c a t io n , d e sp ite b e in g
o n the b o rderlin e (or bey o n d ) o f t h e c l i n i c a l d e f in i t i o n o f r e ta rd e d ."
W h e th e r th ese figures say s o m e t h i n g a b o u t th e ability o f l o w - lQ s t u
d ents to learn or ab ou t the s ta te o f A m e r i c a n s e c o n d a r y e d u c a t io n is a
topic we defer until C h a p te r 18.
W hat D oes A H igh School E d u c a tio n M e a n ?
T h e stan d a rd q u estio n now arises: T o w h a t e x t e n t are we l o o k i n g at a n

effect o f c o g n itiv e ability, a n d to w h a t e x t e n t are w h ite c h ild r e n fro m
poor s o c i o e c o n o m i c b a ck g ro u n d s b e i n g s h u n t e d o u t o f the s c h o o l sy ste m
b ecause of th eir b ackgro un d s? T h e a n s w e r d e p e n d s o n e x a c t l y h o w t h e
q u estio n is asked. Specifically, it is i m p o r t a n t to b e p rec ise a b o u t w h a t a
high sc h o o l e d u c a t io n m eans. In th e t a b l e a b o v e , it was d e fin e d to i n
clude a n y o n e w ho graduated fro m h i g h s c h o o l in the n o r m a l w ay or w h o
passed an e q u iv a le n c y e x a m i n a t i o n , k n o w n g e n e r ic a lly as a G E D (fo r
G e n e r a l E d u c a tio n a l D e v e l o p m e n t ) . 1,1 T h i s h a s b e c o m e n ea rly s t a n d a r d
p ractice w h en researchers a n d j o u r n a l i s t s a lik e talk a b o u t h ig h s c h o o l
dropout. B u t recent work by e c o n o m i s t s S t e v e n C a m e r o n a n d J a m e s
H e c k m a n h a s d e m o n strated t h a t G E D y o u t h s are n o t e q u i v a l e n t to n o r
m a l g rad u ates in terms o f th eir s u c c e s s in th e j o b m a r k e t . 15 In th eir u n
e m p lo y m e n t rates, job tenure, a n d w a g e s , t h e G E D s l o o k m o r e like
d rop ou ts t h a n they look like h ig h s c h o o l g r a d u a t e s , ra isin g the p o s s i b i l
ity that they differ from oth e r h ig h s c h o o l g r a d u a t e s in a v a r ie ty o f w ays
that m ak e s it d an gero u s to lum p a l l p e o p l e w ith a h i g h s c h o o l e d u c a
tio n in to a sin gle group. W e k n o w f r o m o u r o w n a n a ly s e s t h a t t h e w h ite
G E D s in the N L S Y had an a v e r a g e I Q h a l f a s t a n d a r d d e v i a t i o n low er
t h a n the average for white high school graduates. Fu rtherm ore, apart
fro m the specifics o f the d ata, it is ap p aren t that the nature of the G E D
stu d e n ts b e h a v io r giv in g up on school, then later returning to pass the
e x a m in a t io n is different in kind from th at o f both the d ro p o u t who
leav es sc h o o l a n d nev er goes back, and from that o f the youth w ho sticks
w ith four c o n se c u tiv e years o f sc h oolin g a n d gets a d ip lom a .
T o c lin c h their c ase for separating G E D from n o r m a l gradu ates,
C a m e r o n and H e c k m a n also p oint out that the size o f the G E D
p o p u la tio n , o n c e negligible, h as grown to b e c o m e a su b sta n tia l m in o r'
ity. In 1968, G E D grad u ates ac c o u n te d for only 5 p erc en t o f all high
sc h o o l certifications. By 1980, that proportion had reac h ed m ore th an
13 p ercent, where it h as rem ain ed, with m ino r fluctuations, ever sin c e .1161
W e are persuaded th a t th ese disparate groups need to be separated
a n d will therefore analyze separately the relationship o f IQ a n d s o c i o
e c o n o m ic background to e ac h o f these two types of d ropouts.
T h e Perm anent D ropouts
First, we c o m p a re stu d en ts w ho got a h igh school d egree through the

n o rm al process with drop ou ts who left school never to return, sh ow n in
the n e x t figure.
S ta y in g through h igh sc h o o l to receive a d ip lo m a did no t require
genius or high-status p arents. D ropout rates were ex tre m e ly low for
w h ite stud ents who were o f at least average in telligence or s o c i o
e c o n o m ic background. But dropout rates rose rapidly w h en those v a ri
a b le s fell below average, with the rise being p recip ito u s tor stu d en ts
w ith low IQ.
A c lo ser look at th ese num bers dispels the stereotype of the high
sc h o o l d rop ou t as the bright but unlucky youngster w hose talen ts are
wasted bec au se o f e c o n o m ic d isa d v an tag e or a sch ool system th at c a n
n o t hold o n t o h im the stereotype that people h av e in m in d w hen they
lam en t th e A m e r ic a n d ro p o u t rate b ecau se it is frittering away the n a
t i o n s h u m a n cap ital.1'71 A m o n g whites, hardly an y on e in the N L S Y fit
th a t description. O f the w hites who dropped ou t never to return, only
th ree-ten th s o f 1 percen t m e t a realistic definition o f rhe gifted-but-dis-
a d v a n t a g e d d rop ou t (to p quartile o f IQ, b o tto m quartile o f s o c i o e c o
n o m ic b ackg ro u n d .) A n o t h e r eight-tenths o f 1 p erc en t were in the top
q u artile o f IQ and the third quartile o f the s o c io e c o n o m ic distribution.
Schooling 149
In p re d ic tin g w h ich w h ite y o u th s w ill n e v e r c o m p lete a

h ig h sc h o o l e d u c a tio n , IQ is m o re im p o rta n t th an S E S
Probability o f permanently d rop p in g out o f high school

10% -
Very low Very high

( .> SDs) (+2SDs)
N o i r : For compu tin g the plot, age and either S E S (tor the H ack curve) or IQ (tor the gray
curve) were set at their mean values.
E v en when we relax the defin ition to in c lu d e every one who is from th e

to p h alf o f the IQ distribution an d the b o t t o m half ot the s o c io e c o n o m ic
d istribution a very loose d efin itio n in d e e d we are talking a b o u t a
g rand to tal o f only 5.5 percen t of th e p e r m a n e n t dropouts, or h a l f of 1
percent o f A m e r i c a n whites in the N L S Y . |1M|
T h e p e r m a n e n t d rop ou t instead fits th e old er image, more c o m m o n
am o n g the g en era l public th a n in tellec tu als, o f the youngster w h o is
b o th n o t very sm art and from the w ro n g side o f the tracks. To p u t it
technically, th e effects o f so c io e c o n o m i c sta t u s an d intelligence in t e r
act. A w hite you th who had both low c o g n i t i v e ability and a p o o r s o
c io e c o n o m ic b a ck gro u n d was at e v e n m o r e risk o f dropout t h a n t h e
separate effects o f e a c h variab le would l e a d o n e to e x p e c t.1|y| O f w h i t e
youths w ho were in the b o tto m quartile o n b o th IQ and s o c i o e c o n o m i c
status, h a l f p e rm a n e n tly dropped o u t o f s c h o o l.
T h e T em p orary D ro p o u ts
T h e te m p o rary d r o p o u ts , w h o go b a c k to get a G E D , tell a different

story. In th e figure below, th ey are c om pared with stu d en ts w ho re-
c e iv e d a h i g h s c h o o l d ip l o m a in the usual way. In effect, the figure says
F o r te m p o r a r y d r o p o u ts , th e im p o rta n c e o f S E S in c r e a se s sh a rp ly
P robability o f getting a G E D instead o f a high school d iplom a

30% -
i-2 S D s) (+2 S D s)
N o te: For co mputing the plot, age and either S E S (for the black curve) or IQ (for the gray
cu rve) were set at their m ean values.
th a t if you w a n t to p re d ic t w h o will stay in high sch ool th ro ugh the

d ip l o m a , a n d w h o will in ste a d drop o u t o f sch ool an d e v en tu ally get a
G E D , you a re bette r o ff sizing up their parents than looking at their IQ
sc o res. In s p e c u la t in g a b o u t w h a t lies behind these num bers, three im
a g e s c o m e to m in d . First, th e re are middle- and the upper-class parents
w h o find it u n t h i n k a b le t h a t their children should drop out o f high
s c h o o l call th e th e ra p ist, fin d a special school, d o anything, but keep
th e c h i l d in sc h o o l. T h e n o n e thinks o f working-class p aren ts (m o st o f
w h o m are so m e w h e r e a r o u n d the m e a n o n the so c io e c o n o m ic in d ex ),
Schooling 151
urging their ch ild ren to get an e d u c a tio n an d do better t h a n th eir par-

ents. Finally, o n e th in k s of lower-class parents, the Pap F in n s o f A m e r
ican folklore, c o m p l a i n in g ab ou t their c h ild re n wasting all t h a t ti m e
on b o ok learning. T h e N L S Y d a ta are c o n siste n t with th e se p o p u la r
images. For you th s with a so c io e c o n o m ic back g ro u n d a n y w h e r e n e a r
or ab ove the m e a n , the high sc h o o l d ip lo m a is the n o rm . A s s o c i o
econo m ic back g ro u n d falls below the m ean , the p robability t h a t th e
high school c ertific atio n c am e th ro u gh a G E D instead of t h e n o r m a l
route soars.
T h is view a lso firs into the C a m e r o n a n d H e c k m a n fin d i n g th a t
G E D students are m ore like drop ou ts than h igh school g r a d u a te s in the
prohlems they e x p erien ce in the labor m arket. Interpretively, th e
brighter d ro p o u ts m ay go back to get a G E D , but they c o n t i n u e to s h a r e
in c o m m o n w ith the p erm an en t d rop ou ts a lower-class s o c i a l b a c k
ground th at h as not inculcated a work eth ic that m akes for s u c c e s s in
the labor fo rc e.1' 01 T h u s, G E D s are m ore like norm al g r a d u a te s in th e ir
in telligence but m ore like other d rop ou ts 111 their success in the la b o r
force.
A ll of this in terp retatio n is sp ecu lative, a n d we will leav e it to o t h
ers to d e te rm in e w hether these possibilities stan d up to e x a m i n a t i o n .
M e an w h ile, the results em phasize the need tor more o p e n e x p l o r a t i o n
of a topic rhat h a s b een alm ost as ta b o o in so m e circles as I Q : th e p o s
sibility th at low er c la ss in its o ld -fash ion ed sense has an im p a c t o n
how p eop le beh ave.
O n e c o n c r e te result of this analysis bears o n the p re se n ta t io n in th is
hook. T h e d ifferen ces between G E D grad u ates and those w ith reg u lar
d iplom as are to o great to justify g ro u p in g th e m together. W h e n e v e r we
refer to a high sc h o o l e d u c a tio n th ro u gh o u t the rest of P a rt II, we are
referring specifically to the norm al high sc h o o l career, c o m p l e t e d by a
diploma. GiED g rad u ates are exclu d ed .
T H E C O M P A R A T I V E R O L E O F IQ A N D F A M IL Y B A C K G R O U N D
IN G E T T I N G A C O L L E G E D E G R E E
A s a general s ta t e m e n t, the relatio n sh ip ot IQ to e d u c a t io n a l a t t a i n

m e n t seem s to h av e been rem arkably stable. Twenty years a g o , o n e of
the leading te x ts on the W ec h sler A d u l t In tellig en c e S c a le r e p o r t e d that
the m ean of h igh sc h o o l g rad u ates was ab o u t 105, the m e a n of c o l l e g e
1 52 Cognitive Classes arul Social Behavior
g rad u ates was 115, and the m e a n o f p eop le getting m edical degrees and
Ph.D .s w as a b o u t 125.21 T h e book, published in 1972, was based on c l i n
ical e x p e rie n ce in the 1950s and 1960s. T h is sum m ary is virtually id e n
tical to th e story told by the N L S Y for whites (w ho corresp on d most
closely w ith the college p o p u la tio n in the 1950s and early 1960s). T h e
m e an IQ o f h igh sch ool graduates was 106, the m ean of college g ra d u
ates was 116, and the m e a n of people with professional d egrees was 126.
T h e relative roles o f s o c io e c o n o m ic status and IQ in gettin g a b a c h e
lors d eg ree for youths of the late 1970s and 1980s are sh o w n in the fig
ure below.
F o r w h ite y o u th s, b ein g sm a rt is m o re im p o rta n t

th an bein g p riv ileg ed in g e ttin g a c o lleg e d e g re e
Probability o f getting a bachelor s degree

80% -
V ery low Very high

(-2 SD s) (+2 S D s)
Note. For co mputing the plot, age anti cither S E S (tor the black curve) or IQ (for the gray
c u rv e ) w ere set a t t h e ir m e a n v a lu e s .
T w o broad im p lic atio n s o f these results stand out. T h e first is su g

gested by th e way that b o th curves h ug the b o tto m th ro u gh o u t the left-
hand side o f the graph. T h e c o m b in a tio n of average-or-helow p arental
S E S or average-or-below IQ m ean t th at the odds of gettin g a colleg e d e
Schooling 15 3
gree are m in u scu le. T h e sec o n d b ro ad i m p li c a t i o n is th at p a r e n ta l S E S

is im p ortan t hut n o t decisive. In term s of th is figure, a stu d e n t w ith very
w ell-placed p aren ts, in the top 2 p e r c e n t o f th e s o c i o e c o n o m i c s c a le ,
h ad only a 4 0 p erc en t c h a n c e of g e ttin g a c o lle g e d egree if he h a d o n ly
av erage in telligence. A stud en t w ith p a r e n ts o f o n ly av erage S E S
lower m id d le class, probably w ithout c o lle g e d e g re e s th e m se lv e s w h o
is him self in the to p 2 percent o f IQ h ad m o r e t h a n a 75 percent c h a n c e
of g etting a d egree.
O n c e ag a in , the c o m m o n stereotype o f the r a l e n t e d - b u t - d is a d v a i v
ta g e d - y o u t h 'd e n i e d 'e d u c a t io n a l 'o p p o r t u n i t y d o e s n o t seem to e x is t in
sig n ifican t n u m b e rs any longer. O n ly s e v e n - t e n t h s of 1 p e rc e n t of w h ite s
in the N L S Y were both prim e c olleg e m a t e r i a l ( IQ s of 1 IS or a b o v e )
a n d m arked ly d isa d v an tag e d in their s o c i o e c o n o m i c back gro u n d ( i n th e
b o tto m quartile o n the S E S in d e x ). A m o n g this tiny group, it is true
that fewer t h a n h a l f (4 6 p e rc en t) g o t c o l le g e d egrees. T h o s e w h o d id
not, desp ite h a v in g high IQs, may he s e e n as y o u th s who suffered fro m
h a v in g a d isa d v a n ta g e d b a ck g ro u n d . But recall th at rhis group c o n s i s t s
of only four-tenths of 1 percent of all w h ite youths. A category o f w o r
thy white y o u n g p ersons denied a c o lle g e e d u c a t io n b e c a u se of c i r c u m
sta n c e s surely exists to som e degree, but o f su c h sm a ll size that it d o e s
not c o n stitu te a public policy problem .
W h a t ab o u t an o th e r stereotype, the u n t a le n t e d child of rich p a r e n t s
w ho gets sh e p h e rd e d through to a d e g r e e ? A l m o s t 5 percen t of w h ite
youths had b elow -averag e IQ s (u n d er 1 0 0 ) and p a re n ts in the rop q u a r
tile of so c io e c o n o m i c status. O f those, o n ly 12 p e r c e n t h a d g o tte n c o l
lege degrees, rep resenting just six -ten th s of 1 p e r c e n t of white y o u th s.
Ju d g in g from these d ata, the c o m m o n a sse r t io n th a t p rivileged w h ite
p aren ts can m ak e sure their c h ild re n do w ell in s c h o o l, no m atter w h at ,
may be e x ag gerated .
S U M M IN G U P
T h e a c t of le a v in g high sc h o o l before g r a d u a t i n g is a rare ev e n t a m o n g

white youths, consp icuo u sly c o n c e n t r a t e d in the lowest q u a rtile o f c o g
nitive ability. A m o n g those w ho d ro p o u t , b o th s o c i o e c o n o m i c s t a t u s
and c o g n itiv e ability are in volved . M o s t d r o p o u ts w ith a b o v e - a v e r a g e
in telligence go b a c k to get a G E D . 1" 1B u t s o c i o e c o n o m i c status r e m a i n s
154 Cognitive Classes and Sucial Behavior
b o u n d up w ith th e d r o p o u t process. T h e children of lower-class fam ilies

are m o re likely to en d up with a G E D th an are the c h ild ren of average
or up p er-c la ss fam ilies. T h e r e is irony in this: T h r o u g h o u t Part 11, we
d escribe so c ia l p r o b le m s that are more u n d erstan dable o n c e c o g n itiv e
ability is b ro u g h t in to the picture and for which s o c io e c o n o m ic b a c k
ground is n o t as im p o r ta n t as m ost people think. But the o n e social p r o b
lem th a t h a s a w idely ack n o w led ged cause in c o g n itiv e ability sch o o l
d ro p o u t also h a s a stro n g and c o m p le x so c io e c o n o m ic link.
W h e n it c o m e s to e x p la in in g who gets a college e d u c a tio n a m o n g
whites, b o t h a c a d e m ic merit and so c io e c o n o m ic b a ck g ro u n d play im
p o rta n t roles. Bur w h ile so c io e c o n o m ic privilege can h elp it the y o u n g
ster is re a so n a b ly bright, there are limits to what it c a n do if he is not.
A n d it c o g n i t i v e ab ility is high, so c io e c o n o m ic d isa d v a n ta g e is no longer
a sig n ific a n t barrier to g ettin g a college degree.
Chapter 7
Unemployment, Idleness, and

Injury
Economists distinguish between being unem ployed an d being out of the labor
force. The unem ployed are looking fu r w ork unsuccessfully. T h ose out o f the
labor force are not looking, at least fo r the time being. A m o n g young white
men in their late 2 0s and early 30s, both unem ploym ent an d being out o f the
labor force are strongly predicted by low cognitive ability, even after taking
other factors into account.
M any o f the white m ale:s in the N L S Y w ho were out o f the Libor force had
the obvious excuse: They were still in college or graduate school. O f those not
in school, 15 percent spent at least a m onth out o f the labor force in 1 9 8 9 .
The proportion was more than twice a s high in cognitive C la s s V as in C la s s
I. Socioeconomic background w as not the exp lan atio n . A fter the effects o f IQ
were taken into acco u n t, the probability o f speruling time out o f the labor force
went up, not clown, as parental S E S rose.
Why are young men out of the Libor fo rc e? O n e obvious possibility is p h y s'
ical disability. Yet here too cognitive ability is a strong predictor: O f the m en
who described themselves as being too disabled to work, m ore than nine out
of ten were in the bottom quarter of the I Q distribution; few er than one in
twenty were in the top quarter. A in an 's I Q predicted whether he described
himself as disabled better than the kinds of jo b he had held. W e do not know
why intelligence and physical jnoblem s are so closely related, but one possi-
bility is that less iiitelligent people are m ure accident p ro n e .
The results are sim ilar for unem ploym ent. A m o n g young white men who
were in the labor m arket, the likelihood of unem ploym ent fo r high school g r a d
uates and college graduates w as equally dependen t on cognitive ability. S o-
cioeconomic background was irrelevant on ce intelligence w as taken into
account.
M ost m en, whatever their intelligence, a re w orking steadily. H ow ever, fo r
that minority o f men who are either out o f the labor force, or unem ployed, the
prim ary risk facto r seem s to be neither socioeconomic background nor educa-
non but loiv cognitive ability.
H
a v i n g a h i g h I Q m a k e s it easier to do well in a jo b ; we followed
th a t story in C h a p t e r 3. Bur what about the relationship of- c o g n i
tive ability to th a t c ru c ially im p ortan t social behavior kn o w n as bein g
able to get an d h o ld a j o b . T o what e xten t are dropouts from tlie labor
force c o n c e n t r a t e d in the low -IQ classes? T o what e x te n t are the u n
em p lo y e d c o n c e n t r a t e d there?
In the fo llo w in g d isc u ssio n , we limit the analysis to males. It is still
a c c e p t e d t h a t w o m e n e n te r and leave the labor force for reaso ns h a v
ing to d o w ith h o m e a n d family, in troducing a large and c o m p le x set of
issues, w h erea s h e a lth y a d u lt m en are still exp ected to work. A n d yet
s o m e t h i n g tro u b lin g h a s b e e n h ap p e n in g in that area, and for a long
time. T h e p r o b le m is s h o w n in the figure below for a group of young
m e n w h o are likely to be ( o n average) in the lower h a lf o f the IQ d is
tribu tion: m e n 16 to 19 years who are not enrolled in school.
S in c e m id -c e n tu ry , teen ag e b o y s not in sc h o o l are

in c r e a sin g ly n ot em p lo y ed eith er
E m p lo y m en t am o n g men ages 16-19 who are not in school

90% -
i---------1---------1---------1-------- 1-------- 1-------- 1-------- 1---------r

1954 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989
Sources: Bureau ot Labor Statistics, 1982, Table C-42; unpublished data provided by the B u
reau ot Labor Statistics.
Unemployment, Idleness, and Injury 157
A lth o u g h th e e c o n o m y has gon e up and d o w n o v e r the last forty years

an d the e m p lo y m e n t of these young m e n w ith it, the l o n g - te rm e m
plo ym en t trend of their em p lo y m e n t h as b e e n downhill. T h e overall
drop has not h een small. In 195 5, the first year for w hich d a t a are a v a il
able, m ore t h a n 86 percen t o f th ese young m e n h a d jobs. In 1 992 , it was
just 66 perc en t.
Large m a c r o e c o n o m ic and m ac rosoc ial forces, which we will n o t try
to cover, h av e been associated with this trend in e m p l o y m e n t .1'1 In this
chapter, we are c o n c e rn e d with what in te llig e n c e now h as to d o with
g etting a n d h o ld in g a job. To exp lore the answer, we d iv id e th e e m
ploym ent p roblem into its two c o n stitu e n t parts, the u n e m p lo y e d and
those no t ev en look in g for work. A ll of the an a ly s e s that follow refer e x
clusively to whites; in this case white m ales.
LA BO R FO RCE D RO PO U T
T o qualify as p articip atin g in the labor fo rc e , it is not n ec essary to be

em ployed ; it is necessary only to be lookin g for work. S e e n from this
perspective, there are only a few' valid reaso ns why a m an m ig h t not be
in the labor force. I le m ight be a full-tim e stu d en t; d isa b led ; in stitu
tionalized or in the arm ed forces; retired; in d e p e n d e n tly w ealth y ; stay
ing at h o m e c a rin g for the children while his wife makes a salary. Or, it
may be argued, a m a n may legitim ately be out of the labor fo rc e if he is
c o n v in c e d th at be c a n n o t find a job e v e n if he tries. But this come.s close
to ex h a u stin g the list of legitim ate reasons.
A s of the 1 9 9 0 interview wave, the m e m b e r s o f the N L S Y sam p le
were in an ideal p o sitio n for assessing labor force p articip atio n . T h e y
were 25 to 33 years old, in their prim e w ork in g years, and th ey were in
d eed a h a rd w o rk in g group. N in e ty - th re e p e rc e n t of th e m h a d jobs.
Fewer th a n 5 p erc en t were out o f the labor force altogether. W h a t had
caused th a t sm all m inority to d rop o u t of the lab o r force? A n d w as there
any relatio n sh ip betw een being out o f the lab or force and in te llig e n c e ?
O n e such re la tio n sh ip was entirely p re d ic ta b le . A few m e n were out
o f the labor force bec au se they were still in s c h o o l in their late 20s and
early 30s m o st of th em in law school, m e d ic a l sch ool, or stu d y in g for
the d o c to ra te. T h e y were c o n c e n tr a te d in the to p c o g n itiv e c la sses. But
this d oes not tell us m uch ab o u t who leav es th e labor force. W e will e x
clude th e m from th e su bseq uen t analysis a n d focus on m e n w h o were
out o f th e lab o r force for reasons oth e r t h a n sc h o o l.
T o structure th e analysis, let us ask who spent at least a m o n th ou t ot

the labor fo rc e d u rin g c a le n d a r year 1989. Here is the brea k d o w n o f la
bor force d ro p o u t by c o g n itiv e class for white m ales.121 I > o p o u t trom the
labor force rose as c o g n itiv e ability fell. T h e p ercen tag e o f C l a s s V m en
W h ic h W h ite Y ou n g M e n S p e n t a
M o n th o r M o re O u t o f th e L a b o r
F o rc e in 1 9 8 9 ?
C ognitive C lass Percentage

1 Very bright 10
11 Bright 14
111 N o rm al 15
IV D u ll 19
V Very dull 22
O ve rall average 15
w ho were out o f the labor torce was a little m ore t h a n twice the p e r
centage tor m e n in C l a s s 1.
S o c io e c o n o m ic B a c k g r o u n d V ersus Q x i n it i v e A b il it y . T h e next
step, in line w ith our stan dard procedure, is to e x a m in e h ow m u ch o f
the difference m ay b e a c c o u n te d for by the m a n s s o c io e c o n o m ic
background. T h e th in g to be exp lained (the d e p e n d e n t v a riab le ) is
the probability o f s p e n d in g at least a m on th ou t of th e labor force in
1989. O u r basic analysis has the usual three ex p la n ato ry variahles:
parental S E S , age, a n d IQ. T h e results are show n in the figure below.
In this analysis, we e x c lu d e all m en who in either 1989 or 1990
reported th a t they were in school, the military, or were physically
unable to work.
T h e se results are th e first e x a m p le o f a p h e n o m e n o n you will see again
in the c h a p te rs o f Part II. If we had run this analysis w ith just s o c i o e c o
nom ic b a ck g ro u n d a n d age as the e x p lan ato ry variables, we would h av e
found a m ildly in terestin g bur unsurprising result: H o ld in g ag e c o n sta n t,
white m en from m ore privileged backgro und s h av e a m od estly sm aller
c h an c e o f d r o p p in g o u t o f the labor force than white m e n from deprived
(Jjiem pbym ent, Idleness, and Injury 1 59
I Q an d so c io e c o n o m ic b a c k g r o u n d h a v e o p p o site e ffe c t s
o n le a v in g th e la b o r f o r c e a m o n g w h ite m en
Probability ot'being out o f the lab o r t'orcc fo r a month or m ore

2(V/r -
Very low Ver y high

1-2 SL)s) ( + 2 S f)s)
Nolo: Fin computing the pint, age and either S F S (for the black curve) or IQ (for the gray
curve) were set ar their mean values.
backgrounds. Bur w h en IQ is a d d e d to t h e e q u a tio n , the role ot socio-

e c o n o m ic back g ro u n d eith er d is a p p e a r s e n ti r e l y or m oves in the o p p o
site d irection . G i v e n equal a g e a n d IQ , a y o u n g m a n from a fam ily with
high s o c i o e c o n o m i c status w as mure likely t o s p e n d time out ot th e lab o r
force th an th e y o u n g m an from a f am ily w ith low so c io e c o n o m i c s t a t u s . 1' 1
Irt contrast, I Q had a large p o s i t iv e im p a c t o n stayin g at work. A m a n
o f average ag e and s o c i o e c o n o m i c b a c k g r o u n d in the 2d c e n t i le o f I Q
had alm o st a 20 p erc en t c h a n c e of s p e n d i n g at least a m o n th out of th e
labor force, c o m p a re d to on ly a 5 p e r c e n t c h a n c e for a m an at rhe 9 8 t h
centile.
It is not h ard to im agine w h y h i g h i n t e l l i g e n c e helps k e e p a m a n at
work. A s C h a p t e r 3 d iscussed, c o m p e t e n c e in t h e w ork place is r e la te d
to in telligence, a n d c o m p e t e n t p e o p le m o r e t h a n in c o m p e te n t p e o p le
are likely to find the w o rk p lac e a c o n g e n i a l an d rew arding p la c e . H e n c e ,
160 ( Cognitive Classes and Social Behavior
o t h e r th in g s eq u al, they are m ore likely than in co m p e te n t p eop le to he

in th e labor force. In te llig e n c e is also related to time horizons. A male
in h is 20s h a s m a n y d iv e rtin g ways to sp en d his time, from trav elin g the
w orld to s e e in g h o w m a n y w om en he c a n rom ance, all of th e m a lot
m o r e fun t h a n w o rk in g forty hours a week at a job. A shortsighted m an
m a y be te m p t e d to tak e a few m o n th s off here and there; he thinks he
c a n always p ic k up a g a in when he feels like it. A farsighted m an tells
h im self t h a t if h e w a n ts to lay the groundwork for a secure future, he
h a d b e tte r e sta b lish a record as a reliable em ployee now, while he is
youn g. S ta tistic a lly , sm a r t m en tend to be more farsighted th a n d u m b
men.
In c o n tr a st to IQ , th e role o f parental S E S is inherently am biguous.
O n e possibility is t h a t grow ing up in a privileged h o m e foretells low
d r o p o u t rates, b e c a u se th e parents in such hou seholds socialize their sons
t o c o n v e n t i o n a l work. B u i this relationship may break d ow n a m o n g the
wealthy, w h o se son h a s the op tion of living com fortab ly without a
w eekly p a y c h e c k . In a n y case, a ren t working-class h o m e s also ad am an t
a b o u t raisin g son s to g o o u t and get a job.7 A n d d o n t you n g m en from
low er-class h o m e s h a v e a strong e c o n o m ic incentive to stay in the labor
fo rc e b e c a u se they are likely to n eed the m oney? T h e statistical
r e la tio n sh ip with p a re n ta l S E S that shows up in the analysis suggests
t h a t high e r statu s m a y facilitate labor force dropout, at least for short
periods.
T h e an a ly sis of lab o r force dropout is also the first e x a m p le in Parr II
o f a sig n ifica n t r e la tio n s h ip that is n o n e th e le ss m odest. W h e n we know
fro m the o u tse t th a t 78 percent o f white m en in C l a s s V borderline
r e ta rd ed or b e l o w d id not drop out o f the labor force for as m u ch as a
m o n th , we c a n a lso in fer th at all sorts o f things besides IQ are im p o r
t a n t in d e t e r m in i n g w h e th e r so m eo n e stays at work. T h e analysis we
h a v e p r e se n te d a d d s to our un d erstan din g w ithout e n a b lin g us to e x
p la in fully th e p h e n o m e n o n o f labor force dropout.
E d u c a t i o n . C o n d u c t i n g the analysis separately for our two e d u c atio n al

s a m p le s ( t h o s e w ith a b a c h e l o r s degree, n o m ore an d no less, and those
w ith a h ig h sc h o o l d ip l o m a , no more and no less) d o es no t c h a n g e the
p icture. H ig h in t e llig e n c e played a larger in dep en d en t role in reducing
la b o r force d r o p o u t a m o n g the college sam ple th an a m o n g the high
s c h o o l sa m p le . A n d for b o th sam ples, h igh s o c io e c o n o m ic b ackgro un d
d id no t d e c r e a s e la b o r force dropout in d ep en d en t o f IQ a n d age. O n c e
again, the p robability o f d r o p o u t a c tu a l l y in c r e a s e d w ith s o c i o e c o n o m i c

b ackground.
JO B D IS A B IL IT IE S
In the p rec ed in g analysis, we e x c l u d e d all th e c a s e s in w h ich m e n r e

ported th a t they were u n ab le t o w ork . B u t it is n o t t h a t sim p le. Low' c o g
nitive ability increases the risk o f b e i n g o u t o f th e la b o r force for h e a l t h y
young m en, b u t it also in creases th e risk o f not: b e i n g healthy. T h e b r e a k
d ow n by c o g n itiv e classes is s h o w n in t h e fo l l o w i n g table. T h e r e l a
J o b D is a b ility A m o n g Y o u n g W h ite M a le s
N o . per 1 ,0 0 0 N o . p e r 1 ,0 0 0 W ho
W ho R eported Being R e p o r te d L im its in
P rev e n te d from A m o u n t or K in d of
W ork in g by H ealth C o g n itiv e W o rk by H ea lth
P ro b lem s C la s s P ro b lem s
0 I Very B righ t 13
5 11 B righ t 21
5 III N o r m a l 37
36 IV D ull 45
78 V Very dull 62
11 O v e ra ll a v e ra g e 33
tion sh ip of IQ with both v a r ia b le s is c o n s p i c u o u s but m ore d r a m a t i c for

m en rep o rtin g that their d isa b ility p r e v e n t s t h e m from w ork ing. T h e
rate per 1,000 of m e n w h o said they w ere p r e v e n t e d from w o rk in g by a
physical disability ju m p ed s e v e n f o l d fro m C l a s s III to C l a s s IV, an d th e n
m ore th a n d o u b le d again fro m C l a s s IV to C l a s s V.
A m o m e n t s th o u g h t su g g e s ts a p la u s ib l e e x p l a n a t i o n : M e n w ith low
in telligence w ork prim arily in b lu e -c o lla r, m a n u a l jo b s a n d th u s a re
m ore likely to get hurt t h a n a r e m e n s i t t i n g a r o u n d c o n fe r e n c e tab le s.
B ein g injured is m ore likely t o s h r in k th e j o b m a r k e t for a b lu e - c o lla r
worker th a n a for a w h ite -c o lla r w orker. A n e x e c u t i v e with a lim p c a n
still be a n e x e c u tiv e ; a m a n u a l la b o r e r w ith a lim p fac es a m ore se r io u s
jo b im p ed im en t. T h i s p la u s ib le h y p o t h e s i s a p p e a r s to be m o d e stly c o n
firmed in a sim p le c r o s s - c la s s ific a t io n o f d is a b il it i e s with type o f jo b .
M o r e b lu e -c o lla r workers reported som e health lim ita tion th an did

w h ite -c o lla r w orkers (38 per 1,000 versus 28 per 1,000), a n d m ore blue-
c o l la r w ork ers rep orted being prevented from working th an did white-
c o l la r w orkers (5 per 1,000 versus 2 per 1,000).
B u t th e e x p l a n a t i o n fails to accoun t for the relationship o f disability
w ith in te llig e n c e . F or e x am p le, given average c o g n itiv e ability and age,
t h e o d d s of h a v i n g reported a jo b lim itation because o f h e alth were ab ou t
3.3 p e r c e n t tor w h ite m en working in white-collar jo b s c o m p a re d to 3.8
p e r c e n t for w h ite m e n working in blue-collar jobs, a very m ino r differ
e n c e . B u t given that both men have blue-collar jobs, the m an with an IQ
o f 85 had d o u b le th e probability ot a work disability of a m an with an
I Q o f 115.
M ig h t th e re be so m e th in g within jo b categories to e x p la in away this
a p p a r e n t r e la tio n sh ip o f IQ to jo b disability? W e exp lored the q uestio n
f r o m m an y an g les, as described in the e xten d ed note, a n d the finding
se e m s to be robust. For w hatever reasons, white m en with low IQ s are
m o re likely to re p o rt being unable to work because of h e alth th a n their
sm arte r c o u n te r p a r ts, even w hen the oc c u p atio n al hazards h a v e been
sim ilar.1'41
W h y m ig h t in tellig en c e be related to disability, in d e p e n d e n t ot the
lin e of work itself? A n answer leaps to mind: T h e sm arter you are, the
less likely t h a t you will h av e accidents. In Lewis T e r m a n s sam p le ot p e o
p le with IQ s a b o v e 140 (see C h a p te r 2), accidents were well below the
level o b se rv e d in the general p o p u la tio n .5 In other studies, the risk ot
m o t o r v e h i c le a c c id e n ts rises as the d riv ers IQ falls. L ev el of e d u c a
t i o n to s o m e d egree, a proxy measure of in telligence has been linked
to a c c id e n ts a n d injury, in cluding fatal injury, in other activ ities as well.'
S m a r t e r w orkers are typically more productive workers (see Part 1), and
we c a n p r e s u m e t h a t som e p ortion of w hat m akes a worker p rod u ctiv e
is th a t h e a v o id s need less accidents.
W h a t e v e r v a lid ity this e x p la n atio n may have, however, it is unlikely
to b e the w h ole story. W e will sim ply observe that self-reported h ealth
p r o b le m s are su b je c t to a variety o f biases, especially w hen the q u estio n
is so s e n sitiv e as o n e that asks, in effect, W h a t is your ex c u se for n o t
l o o k in g fo r a jo b , youn g m a n ? T h e e v id en ce in the N L S Y regarding the
se r io u sn e ss o f the ailm en ts, w hether a d octor has been c o n su lted , and
t h e ir d u r a tio n raises questions ab out w hether the self-reported d isa b il
ity d a ta h a v e th e s a m e m e a n in g when reported by (for e x a m p le ) a s u b
j e c t w h o rep orts t h a t he was tw'o m o n th s out o f the labor m arket b ecause
of a bro ken leg an d an o th e r w h o r e p o rts t h a t h e h a s b e e n o u t of t h e la-

bor m arket for five years b e c a u se o f a b a d b a c k .
W e leave th e analysis o f lab o r fo rc e p a r t i c i p a t i o n w ith a stro n g c a se
to be m ad e for two points: C o g n i t i v e a b il it y is a s ig n ifi c a n t d e t e r m i n a n t
of d rop ou t fro m the labor force by h e a l t h y y o u n g m e n , in d e p e n d e n t o f
other p lausibly im p o rta n t variab les. A n d t h e g r o u p o f m e n w h o are o u t
o f the labor force bec au se o f se lf- d e s c r ib e d p h y s i c a l d isa b ility tend t o
ward low c o g n itiv e ability, in d e p e n d e n t o f t h e p h y sic a l d e m a n d s o f th e ir
work.
UNEM PLO YM EN T
M e n w ho are o u t of the labor fo rc e a r e in o n e w ay or a n o t h e r u n a v a i l

able for work; u n em p lo y ed m en, in c o n t r a s t , w a n t work but c a n n o t find
it. T h e d istin c tio n is im portant. T h e n a t i o n s u n e m p l o y m e n t statistics
are calc ulated o n the basis o f p e o p le w h o a r e l o o k i n g for work, n o t on
those w h o are out o f the labor force. B e i n g u n e m p l o y e d is transitory, a
u'ay station o n the road to fin d in g a j o b o r d r o p p in g out o f the w ork
force. But it is hard to see m uch d iffe r e n c e b e t w e e n u n e m p lo y m e n t an d
drop p ing out in the relatio n sh ip w ith in t e l l i g e n c e . W e b e g in with the
basic brea k d o w n , set out in the fo l l o w i n g t a b le . T h e e x t r e m e s C l a s s e s
1 and V differed m arkedly in th e f r e q u e n c y o f u n e m p l o y m e n t lastin g
a m o n th or m ore, with C la ss V e x p e r i e n c i n g six tim es the u n e m p l o y
m en t o f C l a s s 1. C l a s s IV also h a d h i g h e r u n e m p l o y m e n t t h a n the u p
per three-quarters o f the IQ d istrib u tio n .
W h ic h W h ite Y o u n g M e n S p e n t a M o n th
o r M o re U n e m p lo y e d in 1 9 8 9 ?
C ognitive C lass P ercentage

1 Very bright 2
II Bright 7
III N orm al 7
IV D ull 10
V Very dull 12
O v e rall average 7
164 C'.ogniuve Classes and Social Behavior
Socioeconom ic Background Versus C ognitive Ability
T h e in d e p e n d e n t roles o f our three basic variables are sh ow n in the fig

ure below. For a m an o f average age and s o c io e c o n o m ic back g ro u n d ,
c o g n itiv e ability lowered the probability o f being u n em ploy ed for a
m o n th from 15 percent for a m an at the 2d centile o f IQ to 4 p ercen t
for m e n a t the 98th centile. N e ith e r parent;il S E S n o r age h ad an a p
p reciab le (or statistically sign ificant) in d ep en d en t effect.
T h e Rote o f Education
Before l o o k in g at the num bers, we would h a v e g uessed th at c o g n i

tive ability would be m ore im portant for e x p la in in g u n e m p lo y m e n t
a m o n g th e h igh school sam p le than a m o n g the college sam p le. T h e
logic is straightforward: A college degree supplies a cred en tia l and
s o m e tim e s sp ecific jo b skills that, c o m b in ed with the c ollege gradu-
H ig h IQ lo w ers th e p ro b a b ility o f a m o n th -lo n g sp ell

of u n e m p lo y m e n t am o n g w h ite m en , w h ile
so c io e c o n o m ic b a c k g ro u n d h as n o e ffe c t
Probability o f being unemployed for a month or more

16 % -
2% -
0 % ,----------------------------------------------------------------- ,-----1---------- 1---------- f-

Very low Very high
(-2 S D s) (+2 S D s)
Note: For compu tin g the plot, age and either S E S (for the black curve) or IQ (for the gray
a l e s greater a v e ra g e level of in tellig en c e, sh ou ld reduce rhe i n d e

pendent role of IQ in ways that would n o t ap p ly as strongly to h i g h
school g ra d u a te s.1*1 But this logic is no t b o r n e out by t h e N L S Y .
C o g n itiv e ability was m ore im p ortan t in d e t e r m in i n g u n e m p l o y m e n t
am o n g college g rad u ates than a m o n g the h i g h sc h o o l sam p le, a l t h o u g h
the small sam p le sizes in this analysis m a k e this c o n c l u s io n o n ly
tentative. S o c io e c o n o m ic b a ck g ro u n d a n d age were n o t i n d e p e n
dently im portant in e x p la in in g u n e m p lo y m e n t in rhe h igh s c h o o l or
college sam ples.
A C O N C L U S IO N A N D A R E M IN D E R A B O U T IN T E R P R E T IN G
RARE EV EN TS
T h e most basic im p lic atio n of the analysis is that in telligen c e and its
correlates maturity, farsightedness, an d p e r s o n a l c o m p e t e n c e are
im portant in k e e p in g a person em p lo y ed a n d in the labor force. B e c a u se
such qualities are no t entirely g o v ern ed by e c o n o m i c c o n d itio n s, rhe
question of w ho is working and who is not c a n n o t be answ ered just in
terms of what jo b s are available.
This d o es n o t m e a n we reject the r e l e v a n c e of structural or e c o n o m i c
c o n d ition s. In bad e c o n o m ic times, we assu m e , fin d in g a j o b is hard er
tor the m ature an d farsighted as well as for r h e im m atu re an d th e s h o r t
sighted, an d it is easier to get discou raged a n d drop the search. O u r g o a l
is to add so m e le a v e n in g to the usual form u lat ion. T h e stare ot the e c o n
om y matters, b u t so d o personal qu alities, a p o i n t th at m ost e c o n o m i s t s
would probably a c c e p t it it were b ro ugh t to th e ir att e n tio n so baldly, b u t
som eh ow it gets left our of virtually all d isc u ssio n s o f u n e m p l o y m e n t
and labor (orce p articip ation .
A s we close this discu ssion o f c o g n itiv e ability and labor force b e
havior, let us b e clear ab out w hat has a n d h a s n o t been d e m o n s tr a te d .
In focusing on th ose who did drop o u t o f the labor force a n d th o s e
who were u n e m p lo y e d , we do no t w ant to fo r g e t th at most w h ite m a le s
at every level of c o g n itiv e ability were in t h e labor force a n d w o rk in g,
ev en at the lowest c o g n itiv e levels. A m o n g p h y sic ally able w'hite m a le s
in C la ss V, the b o tto m 5 percen t o f the I Q distribution, c o m p r i s in g
m en who are in tellectually bo rderline or c lin ic a lly reta rd ed , s e v e n
out of ten were in the labor force for all fifty-two w eeks o f 1 9 8 9 .
O f those who were in the labor force th r o u g h o u t the year, m o re t h a n
eight out of te n e x p erien ced no t a sin g le w eek of u n e m p l o y m e n t .
C o n d e s c e n s i o n toward th ese m en is n o t in order, nor are glib a s

su m p tio n s that those w ho are cognitiv ely d isa d v an tag ed c a n n o t be
p ro d u c tiv e citizens. T h e world is statistically tou g h er tor th em than
for oth e rs w ho are m ore fortunate, but m ost o f them are o v e r c o m in g
the odds.
Chapter 8
Family Matters
Rumors o f the death o f the traditional fam ily have much truth in them for some
parts of white A m erican society those with low cognitive ability arid little ed-
ucation and much less truth for the college educated and very bright A m e r
icans, of all educational levels. In this instance, cognitive ability and education
appear to play mutually reinforcing but also independent roles.
For m arriage, the general rule is that the m ore intelligent get married at
higher rates than the less intelligent. This relationship, which applies across the
range of intelligence, is obscured am ong people with high levels o f education
because college and graduate school are pow erful delayers o f marriage.
Divorce has long been more jrrevalent in the lower socioeconomic and ed-
ucational brackets, but this turns out to be explained better by cognitive level
than by social status. Once the m arriage-breaking impact o f low intelligence
is taken into account, people o f higher socioeconom ic status are more likely to
get divorced than people of lower status.
Illegitimacy, one o f the central social problem s of the times, is strongly re-
lated to intelligence. White women in the bottom 5 percent of the cognitive
ability distribution are six times as likely to have an illegitimate first child as
those in the top 5 percent. O ne out o f five o f the legitimate first babies o f
women in the bottom 5 percent w conceived prior to m arriage, compared
to fewer than one out o f twenty o f the legitimate babies to women in the top
5 percent. Even am ong young women who have grow n up in broken homes
and am ong young women who are poor both o f which foster illegitimacy
low cognitive ability further raises the odds o f giving birth illegitimately. Low
cognitive ability is a much stronger predisposing facto r for illegitimacy than
low socioeconomic background.
A t lower educational levels, a w om an s intelligence best predicts whether
she will bear an illegitimate child. Tow ard the higher reaches of education, a l
most no white w om en are having illegitimate children, whatever their fam ily
background or intelligence.
T
h e c o n v e n t i o n a l u n d erstan d in g o f troubles in the A m e r i c a n fa m
ily h a s sev era l story lines. T h e happily married c o u p le where the
h u sb a n d w ork s a n d the wife stays h o m e with the children is said to be
as o u t m o d e d as th e bustle. Large proportions o f young p eo p le are s ta y
ing sin gle. H a l f th e m arriag es end in divorce. O u t-of-w ed lo ck births are
soaring.
T h e s e fe a tu r e s o f m o d e r n families are usually discussed in the m edia
(and o fte n in a c a d e m i c p resen tatio n s) as it they were spread m ore or less
evenly a c r o ss so c ie ty .'1' In this chapter, we introduce greater d isc rim i
natio n in to th a t d esc rip tio n . U nq u estio nably, the late tw entieth c e n
tury h a s s e e n p ro fo u n d c h a n g e s in the structure o f the family. Rut it is
easy to m is p e r c e iv e w h a t is going on. T h e differences across s o c i o e c o
no m ic c la sses are large, and they reflect im p ortant differen ces by c o g
nitive c la ss as well.
M A R R IA G E
M arriage is a f u n d a m e n t a l building block ot social life and society itself

and thus is a g o o d p la c e to start, because this is one area where m uch
has c h a n g e d a n d little has ch an g ed , d ep e n d in g on the v a n tag e point
one takes.
From a d e m o g r a p h ic perspective, the c h an g es are huge, as show n in
the n e x t figure. T h e m arria g e rate since the 1920s has b een vo latile, but
the valleys a n d p eaks in the figure h av e e x p la n atio n s that d o not n e c
essarily in v o l v e th e u n d erlyin g propensity to marry. T h e G r e a t D e p r e s
sion p ro b a b ly h ad a lot to d o with the valley in the early 1930s, and
World W ar II n o t o n ly had a lot to do with the spike in the late 1940s
but m ay well h a v e h a d reverberations on the marriage rate that lasted
into th e 1 9 5 0 s. It c o u ld e v e n be argued that once these d isru p tive even ts
are tak e n in to a c c o u n t , the underlying propensity to marry did not
c h a n g e fro m 1 9 3 0 to th e early 1970s. T h e one p rolon g ed d ec lin e for
which th ere is n o o b v io u s e x p la n a tio n except a c h a n g e in the p r o p e n
sity to m arry b e g a n in 1973, when m arriage rates per 1,000 w o m en b e
gan d r o p p in g a n d h a v e b e e n d rop p in g ever since, in g o o d years an d bad.
In 1987, t h e n a t i o n passed a landm ark: M arriage rates hit an all-tim e
low, d r o p p in g b elo w th e previous m ark set in the d epths o f the d e p r e s
sion. A n e w rec o rd was prom ptly set ag a in in 1988.
T h i s c h a n g e , a p p a r e n tly reflecting so m e bedrock shifts in attitu d es
toward m a rria g e in p ostin d u stria l societies, may have profound signifi-
Family Matters 169
In th e e arly 1 9 7 0 s , the m a r r ia g e r a t e b e g a n a
p ro lo n g e d d e c lin e fo r n o im m e d ia te ly a p p a r e n t r e a s o n
M arriages per 1,()00 women

120
i---------- 1---------- 1---------- 1---------- 1----------- 1---------- 1---------- r

1 92 0 19 30 19 40 19 50 1960 1970 1980 1990
Sources: U . S . Bureau of the Census, 1975, Table B2 1421*5; SALLS, 1992, Table 127, and
companihte rabies in various edirions.
cance. A n d yet m arriage is still aliv e a n d w ell in rhe se n se that it r e

m ain s a hugely pop ular institution. O v e r 9 0 p e r c e n t of A m e r i c a n s of
bo th sexes h a v e married by the time they r e a c h th eir 4 0 s.'
M arriage and IQ
W h a t d o es c o g n i tiv e ability h a v e to d o w i t h m a rria g e , a n d is there an y

reason to th in k th at it could be i n t e r a c t i n g w ith society's d e c li n in g
propensity to marry?
W e kno w from work by R ob ert R e t h e r f o r d t h a t in p r e m o d e r n s o c i
eties the w ealthy a n d successful m arried a t y o u n g e r ages t h a n the p o o r
and u n d e rp riv ile g e d .1 Retherford furth er n o t e s t h a t in te llig e n c e a n d s o
cial status are co rrelated w herever th ey h a v e b e e n e x a m i n e d ; h e n c e , we
c a n assu m e th a t in tellig en c e via s o c ia l s t a t u s fa c ilita te d m a rria g e in
p rem o d ern societies.
W ith the a d v e n t o f modernity, h o w e v e r , th is r e l a t i o n s h i p flips ov er.
T h r o u g h o u t th e W est sin ce the n i n e t e e n t h c e n tu ry , p e o p le in the m o r e
p r iv ile g e d s e c to r ot society h av e married later and at lower rates than

th e less p riv ile g e d . We e x a m in e the dem ograp hic im p lic atio n s o f this
p h e n o m e n o n in C h a p t e r 15. For now, the im p lication is that in late-
t w e n t ie th - c e n tu r y A m eric a, we should exp ect to find lower marriage
ra te s a m o n g th e highly intelligent in the N L S Y .
E v e ry d ay e x p e rie n c e bears out this finding for p eop le w h o live in a c a
d e m i c c o m m u n i t i e s or professional circles, where they see m any sm art
m e n a n d w o m e n in their 30s and 40s who are still single and look as if
th e y m ig h t stay that way forever. T h e intelligent p rofessional w o m an is
th e m o s t v isib le o f this new tribe, rising in her career, too busy for, or
n o t in te re ste d in, marriage and children. A m o n g m en , o th e r im ages
h a v e r e c e n tly b ec o m e part of the culture: the intelligent, successful, and
u n m a r r ie d h etero sex u al m ale who c an n o t m ake a c o m m i tm e n t and the
in te llig e n t, successful, and unm arried hom osexual m ale w h o no longer
n e e d s to g o th ro u gh the m orions of a marriage.
A t th e o th e r end of the scale, there are similar reasons in research
a n d c o m m o n sen se to suggest that marriage rates will tend to he low
a m o n g p e o p le at the very bottom of the I Q distribution.'* For a num ber
o f r easo n s, h a v in g to do with everything from in itiative to ro m a n c e to
e c o n o m i c s , p e o p le with very low IQs are likely to be at a d isa d v a n ta g e
in c o m p e t i n g for marriage partners.
O u r first lo o k at the N L S Y data conform s to these e x p e c ta tio n s,
th o u g h n o t dram atically. T h e next table shows the situ atio n for the
N L S Y s a m p le a m o n g whites w ho had reached the age o f 30. T h e r e were
su rp rises in th e se results for us, and perhaps for some o f our readers. We
w o u ld n o t h a v e guessed that the average age o f marriage tor p eo p le in
t h e to p 5 p e rc e n t of the intelligence distribution was only 25, for e x
a m p l e . 1,1 A m a in point o f the table is to introduce the rhem e threaded
thro u gho u t, th e chapter: Our, your, and the m e d ia s im p ressio ns ot the
s t a t e o f th e A m e r i c a n family are not necessarily accurate.
T h e R ole o f Socioeconom ic Background
N o t e in the tab le below that m arriage percentages are highest for p e o

p le in th e m id d le of the intelligence distribution and taper off on both
en d s. T h e s a m e is true, though less dramatically, it the table is c o n
st r u c t e d by so c io e c o n o m ic class: T h e p ercentage ot whites w h o had m a r
ried befo re rhe age of 30 d eclines at both extrem es. F urth erm ore, we
h a v e g o o d re a so n s for th in kin g that this p attern is no t a sam p lin g fluke
Family Matters 1 71
W h ic h W h i t e s G e t M a r r i e d W h e n ?
P e rce n ta g e w ho
H ad E v e r M arried A verage A ge a t
B e fo re A ge 3 0 C o g n it iv e C l a s s F ir st M arriage
67 I Very' bright 25.4
72 II Bright 24.3
81 III N o rm al 22
81 IV Dull 21.S
72 V Very dull 21.5
78 O v e ra ll averages 22.1
hut reflects u n d erlyin g d y n a m ic s of m a r r ia g e . T h i s p attern m ak es in t e r

preting regression results tricky, b e c a u s e t h e regression te c h n iq u e s we
are using c o m p u te the lines in th e g r a p h s b a s e d o n the a ssu m p tio n t h a t
rhe lines are not trying to m a k e U - t u r n s . F o r t h e record: W h e n w e run
the stan dard initial analysis i n c o r p o r a t i n g IQ, age, an d s o c i o e c o n o m i c
status as predictors of m arriag e, IQ h a s n o s ig n ifi c a n t in d e p e n d e n t role;
there is a slight, statistically in s ig n i f ic a n t d o w n w a r d probability o f m a r
riage as IQ g o es up. S o c i o e c o n o m i c b a c k g r o u n d has a m u c h larger s u p
pressive role o n marriage: T h e ric h e r a n d bet ter e d u c a te d your p a r e n ts ,
the less likely you are to marry, a c c o r d i n g t o t h e s e results, which, a g a in ,
m ust be interpreted cautiously.
T h e Role of E d u cation
T h e real culprit in e x p la in in g m a rria g e r a t e s in a young p o p u la tio n is

ed u c atio n . In rhe rest of rhe c h a p t e r s o f P a r t II, we p o in t out m a n y i n
stan ces in w h ich takin g e d u c a t i o n in to a c c o u n t d o e s not m u c h affe c t
I Q s in d e p e n d e n t role. N o t s o w ith m a r r ia g e . W h e n we tak e e d u c a t i o n
in to a c c o u n t, the ap p aren t r e l a t i o n s h i p r e v e r se s: T h e probability ot m a r
rying goes up, no t down, for p e o p l e w ith h i g h I Q s a result fo u n d in
oth e r d a ta b a se s as well.161O u r s t a n d a r d a n a ly s is w ith th e two e d u c a t i o n a l
sam p les, high sc h o o l g rad u ates ( n o m o r e a n d n o less) and c o lle g e g r a d
uates ( n o m o re a n d no less) e l u c i d a t e s t h i s fin d in g .
T h e figure show s that n e i t h e r I Q n o r s o c i o e c o n o m i c b a c k g r o u n d w as
im p o rta n t in d e te rm in in g m a r r ia g e fo r t h e c o l l e g e sam p le . In s h a r p c o n -
H ig h I Q r a is e s th e p ro b a b ility o f m arria g e fo r the w h ite h igh sc h o o l

s a m p le , w h ile h igh so c io e c o n o m ic b a c k g ro u n d lo w e rs it
P r o b a b i l i t y o f m a r r i a g e by a g e 3 0
100%
h e h ig h
L'hool
s a m p le
T he c o lle g e
s a m p le
I i r~ I r~
Very low Very high
(-2 SDs) (+2 SOst
Note: For c o m p u tin g the plot, aje, and either S E S (for the black curves) or IQ (tor the fcjray
curves) were set a t their mean values.
trast, I Q m a d e a sign ificant difference in the high sc h o o l sam p le. A high

sc h o o l g r a d u a te from an average so c io e c o n o m ic b ackgro un d who was ai
the b o t t o m of the IQ d istribution (2 standard d e v ia tio n s below the
m e a n ) h a d a 6 0 p erc en t c h a n c e of h av in g m arried. A high sc h o o l
g rad u ate at th e top o f the IQ distribution had an 89 percen t c h a n c e of
h a v in g m arried . M e an w h ile, the in d ep en d en t role of s o c io e c o n o m ic
status in th e h ig h sc h o o l sam p le was either slightly n e g a tiv e or nil (th e
d o w n w a rd slo p e is n o t statistically significant).
D IV O R C E
P eople m a n y , but d o they stay m arried? Here is where the c h a n g e has

been n o t o n ly d ram atic but, som e would say, cataclysm ic, as show n b e
low. In 1 9 2 0 , on ly d e a th parted h u sban ds and wives in about 82 p ercen t
o f m a rria g e s an d , in any g iv en year (th e d atum sh ow n in the n e x t
figure b e lo w ) , only a b o u t 8 ou t of 1,000 married fem ales e x p e rie n c e d a
d iv o rc e. A s late as 1964, despite the sweeping c h a n g e s in technology,
Family Matters 173
T h e divorce revolution
D ivorces per 1,000 w o m e n

25- ...1 9 6 5 -7 9 /
20-
15-
10-
5-
192 0 1930 1 9 40 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
.Siinnvs: LJ.S. Bureau of the Censu s, 1975, T a b le R 2 I 4 215; NA! S , 1992, Table 127, and
wealth, an d so c ia l life t h a t h a d o c c u r r e d in th e in terven in g forty-four

years, the n u m b e r was very little c h a n g e d : 10 of every 1,000. T h e peak
divorce rates jusr follow ing W o r ld W a r 11 h a d fully subsided, and the di
vorce rate still lay up on a tr e n d l in e e s t a b l i s h e d betw een 1920 an d 1940.
T h e n c a m e the r e v o lu tio n . T h e s t e e p u p w a r d sweep o f the divorce
rate from rhe m id - 1 9 6 0 s t h r o u g h th e en d o f the 1970s represents one o f
the most rapid, c o m p r e s se d c h a n g e s in a b a s ic so c ial b e h a v io r th at the
tw entieth century h as w itn e sse d . W h e n t h e d iv o r c e rate h i t its peak at
the end o f the 1970s, a m a r r ia g e h a d m o r e t h a n a fifty-fifty c h a n c e o f
en d in g in d iv o rc e .' D e sp ite a d o w n w a r d t r e n d sin ce 1980, d iv o rc e re
m ain s at twice the a n n u a l rate o f t h e m i d - 1 9 6 0 s .
D w ince an d I Q
We do no t a t t e m p t to e x p l a i n th is p r o f o u n d c h a n g e in our lives, which

no d oubt h as roots in c h a n g i n g m o re s, c h a n g i n g laws, c h a n g in g roles o f
w om en, c h a n g i n g labor m a r k e t s , a n d w h o k n o w s w h at else. Instead, we
address the narrow q u e stio n : H o w d o e s d i v o r c e currently c o rre la te with
in telligence?
T h e r e are plausible reasons for ex p ec tin g that co g n itiv e ability will

h a v e an im p act on divorce. For ex am p le, on e may hypothesize that
brigh t p eop le less often marry on a whim, h en c e they h av e fewer d isa s
trous sh ort marriages. Bright people are perhaps less likely to ac t o n im
p u lse w h e n the marriage has problem s, h en c e are less likely to d ivorce
p recip ito u sly during the first years o f marriage. M ore generally, it m ay be
argued t h a t brighter people are berrer able to work ou t d ifferences that
m ig h t oth e rw ise eventually destroy a marriage. We are, ot course, refer
ring to statistica l ten d en cies tor which individual e x c e p tio n s abound.
W i t h in the confines of the N L S Y exp erien ce, these e x p e c ta tio n s are
b o r n e out to some degree, as shown in the table. T h e results are based
W h ic h W h it e s G e t D iv o r c e d W h e n ?
P ercen tage D ivorced in F irst

C o gn itive C la ss Five Y ears of M arriage
1 Very bright 9
11 Bright 15
111 Norm al 23
IV Dull 22
V Very dull 21
Overall averages 20
o n the first five years o f marriage. T h o s e in C lass 1 were ten tim es as

likely to stay married for at least five years as to er d iv o rc ed ; tor those
in C l a s s e s 111,1V, and V the bo ttom three-quarters of the p o p u la tio n
the ratio o f marital survival to d ivorce for at least five years was only L 5
to 1 .|lS| Virtually all ot the effect of IQ seem s to have been c o n c e n tr a te d
at th e to p of the distribution. T h e divorce rates across the b o tto m three-
q uarters of the c og n itiv e ability distribution were essentially identical.
T h e Rule of Socioeconom ic Background
D o th ese findings hold up when we begin to add in other c o n s id e r a

tio n s? T h e figure below shows the results for the white sa m p le w ho had
b e e n m arried at leasr five years.191 T h e con sisten t finding, represented
fairly by the figure, was that higher IQ was still asso ciated with a lower
p ro b a b ility of divorce after ex trac tin g the effects of o th e r variables, and
p a re n ta l S E S had a significant positive relationship to d iv o r c e that is,
Family Matters 175
IQ a n d s o c i o e c o n o m i c b a c k g r o u n d h a v e o p p o s i t e e ffe c ts on the
l ik e lih o o d o f an e a r l y d iv o r c e a m o n g y o u n g w hites
Probability o f divorce in the first fiv e years o f m arriage

40% -
A v IQ goes fro m low to h i^ li
0 7 r |--------------1--------------- 1---------------1-------------- r
V er y low V ery high
{?. S D s) (+2 SDs)
Note: In addition to IQ. age, and parental S E S , the indep enden t variables included date of
first marriage. For computing the plot, age, date ot first marriage, and either SE S (tor th e
black curve) ur IQ (for ihe gray curve) were set at th eir mean values.
IQ bein g eq u a l, ch ild ren o f h ig h e r-statu s fam ilies were m ore likely to

get d iv orced th a n child ren o f lower-stat.us fam ilies.*'1'1
T h e Role o f E d u cation
It is c lear to all researchers w h o e x a m in e th e d a t a that higher e d u c a tio n

is associated with lower levels ot d iv o rc e . T h i s was c ertainly true o f th e
N L S Y , where the college sa m p le ( p e r s o n s w ith a b a c h e lo r s degree, n o
m ore an d n o less) had a d iv o rc e rate in th e first five years of m arria g e
th at was less t h a n h a l f that o f the h igh s c h o o l sa m p le : 7 percen t c o m
pared to 19 p erc en t. But this raw o u t c o m e is d e c e p t i v e . " H o ld in g so m e
critical o th e r things eq u al IQ, s o c i o e c o n o m i c status, age, and d a te of
m arriag e th e div o rc e rate for the h igh s c h o o l g r a d u a te s in the first fiv e
years o f m arriage was lower t h a n for c o l le g e gra d u a te s.
Fur w hom d id IQ m ake m ore difference: the high sc h o o l sa m p le or

the college s a m p l e ? T h e answer is the college sam ple, hy tar. For them ,
the probability of d ivorce in the first five years plunged from 28 percent
lor so m e o n e w ith an IQ o f 100 to 9 percen t for s o m e o n e with an IQ of
130. T h e m u c h m ore m inor effect of IQ am o n g high sch ool g raduates
was not statistica lly sign ificant.1121
D o Broken F am ilies Beget Broken F am ilies?
O n e other c a u se o f d ivorce is m en tio n ed so c o m m o n ly that it requires

exp lo ration: a broken h o m e in the preceding gen eration . T h e children
of divorced p a re n ts have an elevated risk th em selv es of g ettin g d i
v o rc ed .13 It is n o t h ard to th in k of reasons why: T h e y h a v e no t w itnessed
how a successful marriage works, they are more likely to see d iv o rc e as
an a c c ep tab le alternative, the turbulence o f a failing m arriage leaves
psychological scars, and so forth.
N o n e of th e se reasons has an obvious c o n n e c tio n with c o g n itiv e a b il
ity. T h e y c o u ld b e valid without necessarily affecting the in d e p e n d e n t
prophylactic role that being smart plays in p reven tin g (or p erhap s s i m
ply delaying) d iv orce. A n d so indeed it worked out in the N L S Y . ( m e n
a young p e rso n o f average IQ and s o c io e c o n o m ic backgro und , the p r o b
ability of d iv o r c e within the first five years o f marriage was lowest for
those who at ag e 14 had been living w ith both parents ( 2 0 p e rc e n t), a
bit higher for th ose who had been living with a rem arried p aren t (22
percent), an d h igh e r still for those living with an un-rem arried or never-
married m o th e r (2 5 p e rc e n t).11^1 T h e s e are not large effects, however,
and are n o t sig n ifica n t in a statistical sense. W e can say on ly that the
results su p p o rte d the general p rop ositio n that, when it c o m e s to raising
children w h o will th em selv es stay married, two adults as p a re n ts are g e n
erally better t h a n one and that two biological parents in the h ou seh o ld
are better t h a n o n e or none. But it is worth n o tin g th at the in tro d u c
tion of these variab les did n o th in g to c h an g e the im p o rta n c e ot the rest
of the v ariab les. H ig h er co g n itiv e ability conferred just ab o u t as m u c h
p rotection from , and higher status just as m uch risk for, d iv o rc e as in the
preceding analyses.
T h e N L S Y g iv e s us a w indow o n the early years of marriage, th o u gh not

necessarily a b o u t m arriage as a whole. Based o n n atio n al d iv o rc e rates,
we know t h a t m o st of the d iv orces that the m em bers o f the N L S Y will
Family Matters 177
ex p e rie n c e h a v e yet to occur. W e will h a v e to w ait a n d see w h a t h a p

pens to the N L S Y sam ple in l a t e r years.
O n e final p o in t ab o u t th e d iv o r c e re su lts is w orth n o tin g , h o w e v e r.
T h e s e fin d in g s m ay help e x p l a i n t h e c o m m o n o b se r v a tio n t h a t d iv o r c e
is less likely w hen the h u s b a n d h a s h i g h e d u c a tio n , in co m e, o r s o c i o
e c o n o m ic sta tu s or that m a rria g e s are m o r e likely to fall a p a r t if th e y
start w hen the c ou p le is a ffl ic te d w ith u n e m p l o y m e n t . 16 If we h a d
show ed a brea k d o w n o f d iv o r c e r a te s in t h e N L S Y by so c ial a n d e c o
n o m ic m easures alon e, we t o o w o u ld h a v e s h o w n such effects. B u t e a c h
of those variab les is c o rre la te d w i t h c o g n i t i v e ability, an d the st u d ie s
that e x a m in e th em alm ost n e v e r in c l u d e a n in d e p e n d e n t m e a su r e o f i n
telligen ce per se. S o m e p o r ti o n o f w h a t h a s so o fte n been o b se r v e d a b o u t
rhe risk factors for divorce tu rn s o u t to b e m o re narrowly th e resu lt o f
low c o g n itiv e ability.
IL L E G IT IM A C Y
C h il d b e a r i n g tou c h es o n o n e of rh e m o s t sen sitiv e topics in th e stu d y

of in telligen ce an d its social c o n s e q u e n c e s : fertility p attern s a m o n g th e
sm art and th e d u m b, an d t h e i r p o s s i b le lo n g - te r m effects o n rhe i n t e l
lectual c a p ita l of a n a t io n s p o p u l a t i o n . W e d e v o t e a full c h a p te r to th is
topic ( C h a p t e r 15) in the p o r t i o n o f the h o o k d e a lin g with the n a t i o n a l ,
m ultiracial persp ective. In th is c h a p te r , t h e focus is o n fam ily p r o b l e m s ,
an d o n e of the leading c u rren t p r o b l e m s is th e failure o f tw o -p a re n t f a m
ilies to form in the first p lace, as d e n o t e d by births to single w o m e n
illegitimacy.
We use th e older term i l l e g i t i m a c y in fav or o f the phrases c u r r e n tly
in favor, out-of-w edlock b i r t h s " o r b i r t h s to sin g le w o m e n , b e c a u s e
we think th at, in the long run , t h e w o r d illeg itim acy will p r o v e to b e
the right on e. W e are in stru c te d in th is by the a n t h ro p o lo g is t B r o n i s
law' M a lin o w sk i. In his rese a r c h early in the century, M a li n o w s k i o b
served a c o n s t a n t running t h r o u g h o u t th e rich d iversity o f h u m a n
cultures and in deed th ro u g h o u t history. H e d e c id e d th at this a m o u n t e d
t o a u n iv ersal socio lo gic al l a w a n d c a l l e d it the p rinciple o f l e g i t i
m acy. N o m a tte r what the c u lt u r e m i g h t be, there runs th e rule t h a t
the father is in disp en sable fo r th e full s o c i o l o g i c a l status of the c h il d as
well as o f th e m other, that t h e g r o u p c o n s i s t i n g o f a w o m a n an d h e r o f f
spring is so c io lo g ic ally i n c o m p l e t e a n d i l l e g it i m a t e . 17 T h e rule a p p l i e d
alike to East or W est, p r im itiv e c u l t u r e s or a d v a n c e d o n es, c u lt u r e s
w h ere p rem arital sex w as a c c e p te d or ban n ed , where c h ild ren were c o n

sid ered an asset or a burden, where fathers could h av e o n e wife or many.
D e sp ite our faith th at M alinow ski was ob serv in g s o m e t h i n g that will
o n c e a g a in be c on sid ered true about h u m a n societies, th e c o n te m p o rar y
W e ste rn d em o c ra c ie s, includ ing rhe U n ite d S tate s, seem in tent on
p r o v in g M alin o w sk i w'rong, as sh ow n in the next figure.
T h e illeg itim a cy re v o lu tio n
Percentage o f children bom out o f wedlock
19 20 19 30 19 40 19 50 1960 1970 1 98 0 1990
Sources: Various editions ot the Natality volume of Vital Statistics, compiled annuallv hy the
Public Health Service.
In the sev en ty -o n e years from 1920 to 1990, the p ro p o rtio n ot c h i l

dren born to single w o m e n in the U n ite d S ta te s went from less th a n 3
p e rc e n t, roughly where it had been throughout A m e r ic a n history, to 30
p e r c e n t.11s| It would h av e been ab out 6 percen t had the tren d lin e e s
tab lish ed from 1920 to 1952 rem ain ed u n ch an g ed . T h e trend line shitted
upward d u rin g the 1 950s, but not dramatically. If we had m a in ta in e d
the tre n d lin e estab lished from 1952 to 1963, th e U n ite d S t a t e s would
h a v e h ad a b o u t 11 p erc en t o f births out ot w edlock in 1991. Instead, the
figure was 30 percent, the result ot a steep, sustained increase that g a t h
Family Matters 179
ered s te a m in the m id -1 9 6 0 s a n d c o n t i n u e d in to the early 1990s. T h e

increase for th e m ost recent a v a il a b le year, 1991, was one of the largest
in history. T h e r e are no signs as we write t h a t illegitimacy is reaching
an asym p tote.
A n y o n e w h o is trying to u n d e rsta n d s o c ia l trends must also realize
th at the m a g ic of c o m p o u n d in terest has c r e a te d an even m ore e x p lo
sive rise in th e p o p u la tio n of u n m arrie d m o th e r s and children. In 1960,
for e x am p le, th ere were ju st 7 3 ,0 0 0 n e v er-m arried m others betw een the
ages of 1 8 a n d 34. In 1980, there were 1.0 m il li o n .110'I n 1990, there were
a p p ro x im a te ly 2.9 m illion .1201 T h u s the illeg itim a cy ratio increased by
sixfold from 1 9 6 0 to 1990 bad e n o u g h but the nu m ber o f never-
married m o th e rs increased fortyfold. From ju st 1 9 8 0 to 1990, while the
illegitim acy ratio was in creasin g by half, the n u m b e r of unmarried m o th
ers alm o st tripled.
Illegitim acy a n d IQ
If I Q is a factor in illegitimacy, as we will c o n c l u d e it is, it m ust be in

c o m b in a tio n with other things (as c o m m o n se n se would suggest), b e
cause I Q itself h as n o t c h a n g e d n early e n o u g h in recent years to ac c o u n t
for the e x p lo siv e grow th in illegitim acy.1211 Rut we will also be e x p lo r
ing the p ossibility that som e o f these o th e r t h i n g s that h a v e ch an ged
in the last three d e c ad e s b ro k en h o m e s a n d the welfare system being
prim e su sp e c ts in teract with in te llig e n c e , m a k in g it still m ore likely
th an before t h a t a w o m an o f low c o g n i tiv e ability will h av e a baby out
of wedlock.
A m o n g o th e r reasons that c o g n itiv e ab ility m ay be related to illegit
imacy, we h a v e this causal m o d e l in m in d : T h e sm arter a w o m a n is, the
m ore likely t h a t sh e deliberately d e c id e s to h a v e a child a n d calculates
the best tim e to d o it. T h e less in tellig en t the w o m a n is, the m o re likely
th at she d o es not think a h e a d from sex to procreation, d o es no t re
m e m b e r to use birth control, d o es n o t carefully c on sid er w h en a n d u n
der w hat c irc u m sta n c e s she sh ou ld h a v e a child . H ow intelligent a
w o m a n is m ay in teract with h e r im p u lsiv en ess, a n d h en ce h er ability to
exert self-d isc ip lin e and restraint o n her p a rtn e r in order to av oid p reg
nancy. T h e result is a direct an d stro n g re la tio n sh ip b etw een h igh i n
telligence a n d the likelihood th at a c h ild is c o n c e iv e d after marriage,
an d b etw een low in telligen ce and th e l ik e l ih o o d that the child will be
b o m o u t of w ed lo c k .
T h e r e are, of course, o b je c tio n s to this exp la n atio n . S o m e will bris

tle at our id entification o f c o n c e p tio n within m arriage with the in telli
g e n t th in g to do. Rut is it really controversial or even arguable? U n d e r
w h at c irc u m stan c e s c a n a thoughtful, c o o lh ead ed appraisal lead o n e to
c o n c l u d e th a t it is better to c o n c e iv e a child outside m arriage? If such
c ir c u m s ta n c e s exist, are rhey not exc ep tio n al? Perhaps a w o m an wants
to c o n c e i v e a child out of marriage, but how likely is it that a d isin te r
ested p e rso n would c o n sid e r it to be in the best interest of all co n c ern ed ,
in c lu d in g rhe ch ild s?
W e beg in our e x p lo ra tio n with the overall numbers. First, how m any
w h ite w om en are en g ag in g in this behavior? A s the n e x t table shows,
t h e d ifferen ces am o n g the c ogn itiv e classes are extrem ely large. O n ly 2
p e r c e n t of white w om en in C l a s s I had given birth to an illegitim ate
c h ild as of the 1990 interview, com pared to 32 percent of the w om en in
C l a s s V.
T h e I n c id e n c e o f I lle g it im a c y A m o n g
Y o u n g W h ite W o m e n
Percen tage W ho
H av e G iv e n B irth to an
C ogn itive C la s s Illegitim ate B ab y
1 Very bright 2
11 Bright 4
111 N orm al 8
IV Dull 17
V Very dull U
O verall average 8
N o w we sw itch lenses. Instead ot asking how many w o m e n hav e ever

h ad a n illegitim ate baby, we ask what proportion of first babies K i r n to
w h ite w o m e n are illegitim ate. T h e next table shows rhe results. T h e
p r o p o r tio n s o f illegitim ate first births in the top two c o g n itiv e classes
are n early the same, rou n ding to 7 p erc en t ab out h a l f the p rop ortion
tor C l a s s III, a third o f the proportion for C la ss IV, an d a sixth of the
p r o p o r tio n for C la ss V. Illegitim acy is again conspicuously c o n c e n tr a te d
in th e lowest cognitive groups.
Family Matters 181
T h e P ro p o rtio n o f W h ite F ir s t B ir th s
T h a t A r e Ille g itim a te
P e rc e n ta g e of
C o g n itiv e C la s s Ille g itim a te B irth s
I Very bright 7
II Bright 7
III N orm al 11
IV D u ll 23
V Very dull 42
O verall average 14
T h e relatio n sh ip between in tellig en c e a n d illegitimacy is stro n g not

only in these basic respects, but also in m o r e subtle ways, as the n u m
bers based on the w o m e n s first hirrhs, s h o w n in the next table, reveal.
C ir c u m s ta n c e s o f th e F ir s t B i r t h A m o n g W h ites
B o rn Illeg itim a te B o rn A fte r M arriage
M o th er M o th er C on ceived C on ceived
H a s n t E v en tu ally C o g n itiv e B e fo re A fter
M arried" M a r rie d C la s s M arriage M arriage
3% 4% I Very bright 4% 89%
3 4 II Bright 1.3 80
3 10 111 N orm al 20 67
7 16 IV Dull 22 55
17 24 V Very dull 12 47
4 10 Population averages 19 68
' By [ho time of the 1^90 interview.
N o t only are ch ild ren of m others in th e top quartile of in telligen c e

( C la sse s 1 an d II) m ore likely to be horn w ith in marriage, they are more-
likely to h av e b een c o n c e iv e d within m arria g e (n o shotgun w ed d in g ).
T h e d ifferen ces a m o n g the c o g n itiv e c la sse s are large, as if they liv e d in
different worlds. For rhe w o m en in C l a s s V, only 47 percent of th e first
c h ild ren were c o n c e iv e d after a m arriage c erem o n y ; for the w o m e n in
("la ss I, 89 percen t.
T h e table m a k e s a strong p rim a facie c a s e for a relationship b e tw e e n
c o g n itiv e ability a n d illegitimacy. T h e q u e s tio n is w hether it su rv iv e s
scrutiny w h en we in troduce oth e r facto rs in to the analysis.1" '
182 CJugnitiw Classes and Social Behainor
The Role o f Socioeconom ic B ack gro u n d
T h e s o c i o e c o n o m i c back g ro u n d o f a young w om an was traditionally

thought to b e crucial in d e te rm in in g w hether she bore a child out ot
wedlock. T h e old -fash io n ed view o f illegitimacy was th at it occurred
mostly a m o n g girls from the lower classes, with o c c a sio n a l an d s c a n
dalous slip-ups by higher-class good girls who got in tro ub le. Rut d u r
ing the last few d ecad es, as births outside marriage b e c am e m ore
c o m m o n a n d as e x a m p le s proliferated o f film stars and career w om en
who were c h o o s i n g to h a v e babies without husbands, an alte rn a tiv e
view' spread. T h e sex ual re v o lu tio n had obviously pen etrated to all l e v
els o f society, it was argued, a n d births out of wedlock were oc c u rrin g at
all levels of our sexually liberated society.
T h e r e were nev er any system atic d ata to support this view1, but n e i
ther did sch o lars rush to c h e c k it our. A 1980 article in the American
Sociological Review o n e d u c a tio n an d fertility reported that w hite w om en
with less t h a n a h igh sc h o o l ed u c a tio n were twenty tim es m ore likely
to h av e a ch ild out of w edlock th an white w om en with at least a c o l
lege degree, but illegitim acy was only a side issue in the article an d the
datum n ev er got no tic ed in the public dialogu e."1 T h e relatio n sh ip of
teenage illegitim acy to social a n d c ogn itiv e factors was first treated in
derail in an analysis ot the H ig h S c h o o l an d Beyond survey published
by the R A N D C o r p o r a t io n in 1 9 8 8 .1241 T h e report revealed that more
th an three-quarters of the te e n a g e girls in this nation al sa m p le w ho had
babies while they were still of h ig h school age cam e from fam ilies in the
bo ttom h alf ot the so c io e c o n o m i c stratum. M ore than halt c a m e from
rhe b o tto m q uartile. T h is fin d in g also held true a m o n g just the white
teen ag e girls who had babies o u t of wedlock, with 70 p erc en t c o m in g
from the b o tto m halt o f the socioeconom ic, distribution and only 12 p er
cent from th e top q u artile.|2^ T h e R A N D study was also the first to re
veal that c o g n itiv e ability p layed an im portant role, in d e p e n d e n t of
so c io e c o n o m ic status.
T h e d a ta from the N L S Y generally confirm those reported in rhe
R A N D analysis. O n the surface, white illegitimacy is a sso ciated with
so c io e c o n o m ic status: A b o u t 9 percent of babies of w o m en w h o c o m e
from the u p p er so c io e c o n o m ic quartile are illegitimate, c o m p a re d to
ab ou t 23 p e rc e n t o f the ch ild ren o f w om en who c o m e from the b o tto m
so c io e c o n o m ic quartile. B u t w hite w om en o f varying status b a ck g ro u n d s
Family Matters 183
differ in c o g n itiv e ability as well. O u r sta n d a rd analysis with IQ, age,

an d parental S E S as in d e p e n d e n t v ariab les h e l p s to clarify the situ atio n .
T h e d e p e n d e n t va riab le is w h eth er th e first c h ild was born o u t of w ed-
l o c k ' * 71
IQ h a s a la rg e e ffe c t o n w h ite ille g itim a te b irth s in d e p e n d e n t

o f th e m o th e rs s o c io e c o n o m ic b a c k g ro u n d
Probability o f an illegitimate first birth

40% -
Very low Very high

(-2 S D s ) (+2 SDs)
N ote : For co m putin g the plot, age and either S E S (tor t h e black curve) or IQ (for th e gray
curve) were set at their m ean values.
H ig h e r so c ial statu s reduces the c h a n c e s ot an illegitim ate first b a b y

from ab ou t 19 p e rc e n t for a w o m a n w h o c a m e from a very low s t a t u s
family to ab o u t 8 percen t for a w o m a n f r o m a very high status fam ily,
g iv en th at the w o m a n has av e ra g e in te llig e n c e . L e t us c o m p a r e t h a t 11
p erc en tag e p o in t sw ing with the effect of a n eq u iva len t shift in i n t e l l i
g e n c e ( g iv e n a v e r a g e so c io e c o n o m ic b a c k g r o u n d ) . 12 T h e o d d s ot h a v
ing an illeg itim a te first child d ro p from 34 p e r c e n t for a very dull w o m a n
to ab o u t 4 p e rc e n t for a very smart w o m a n , a swing o f 30 p e r c e n ta g e
p oin ts in d e p e n d e n t of any effect of s o c i o e c o n o m i c status.
T h e Role o f Education
W ith o u t d o u b t, the num ber o f well-educated w om en w ho are d elib er

ately d e c id in g to have a baby out of w edlock the n a m e M urphy
B r o w n c o m e s to m in d has in creased. T h e Bureau o f the C e n su s's m ost
rec en t study of fertility of A m e r i c a n w o m en revealed th at the p e r c e n t
age o f never-m arried w om en with a b a c h e lo rs degree w ho had a baby
h ad in creased from 3 to 6 percen t from 1982 to 1 9 9 2 . But during rhe
s a m e d e c a d e , the p ercen tage of never-married w om en with less than a
high s c h o o l ed u c atio n w ho had a baby increased from 35 to 4 8 p e r c e n t ."
T h e role of ed u c atio n c o n tin u e s to be large.
In the N L S Y , the statistics c on trast even more starkly. A m o n g white
w o m e n in th e N L S Y who had a b a c h e lo rs degree (n o m ore, n o less) and
w h o had g iv e n birth to a child, 9 9 p ercent of the babies were born within
marriage. In other words, there is virtually no in d ep en d en t role for IQ
to play a m o n g w om en in the college sam ple. It is true that the w om en
in th at 1 percen t who gave birth out o f wedlock were m ore likely to h av e
the lower test scores in d e p e n d e n t of any effect o f their s o c io e c o n o m ic
b a c k g r o u n d s but this is of theo retical interest only.
M e a n w h ile , for white w o m en in the N L S Y w ho had a high sc h o o l
d ip lo m a ( n o more, no less) an d had given birth to a child , 13 percen t
of the ch ild ren had been born out of wedlock (co m p are d to 1 per
c e n t for th e college sam p le). For them, the in d e p e n d e n t role of IQ
was as large as the on e for rhe entire p o p u la tio n (as sh o w n in the
p re c e d in g figure). A high sch o o l graduate with an I Q of 70 had a 34
p e r c e n t probability that the first baby would be born out of wedlock;
a high sc h o o l graduate with a n IQ o f 130 had less t h a n a 3 percen t
c h a n c e , after ex tractin g the effects of age and so c io e c o n o m ic b a c k
groun d. T h e in dep end ent effect of socio ec o n o m ic status wa.s c o m
p aratively minor.
T h e Role of Broken H om es
W e h a v e already noted that family stm ctu re at the ag e o f 14 had only

m o d e st in fluen ce on the c h a n c e s of gettin g divorced in the N L S Y s a m
ple after c o n tr o llin g for IQ and parental S E S . N o w the q u estio n is how
the s a m e characteristic affects illegitimacy. L et us c o n sid e r a white
w o m a n of av erage in telligence and average so c io e c o n o m ic back g ro u n d .
T h e o d d s th at her first child would be b o m out of w edlock were:
Family Matters 185
10 percen t if she was living with b o th b i o lo g ic a l parents.

18 percen t if she was living w ith a b io lo g ic a l parent and a step p ar
ent.
25 p ercen t if she was living w ith h er m o t h e r (with or w ith out a live-
in bo yfriend ).
T h e differen ce b etw een c o m in g from a tra d itio n a l family versus any

th in g else was large, with the step fam ily a b o u t halfway b etw een the tra
d itional fam ily an d the m other-only family.
A s we e x a m in e d the role o f fam ily stru c tu re with different b reak
dow ns (th e p e rm u ta tio n s o f a r r a n g e m e n ts that c an exist a re nu m er
ou s), a few p attern s kept recurring, k s e e m e d th at girls w ho were still
living w ith th eir biological fath e r at age 1 4 were p rotected from h a v
ing their first baby ou t of w edlock. T h e g irls w ho had been living with
neither b io lo g ic a l parent (usually livin g w ith adopted p aren ts) were
also p rotec ted . T h e worst o u tc o m e s s e e m e d consp icu o usly associated
with situ a tio n s in w hich the 14-year-old had been living with the
biological m o th e r bur not the b io lo g ic al father. H ere is one su c h b reak
down. 7 'h e o d d s th at a white w o m a n s first baby would b e born out
of w ed lo ck (a g a i n assum in g av erag e in te llig e n c e and so c io e c o n o m ic
b a ck g ro u n d ) were:
8 percent if the b iolog ical m other, but n o t the biological father, was
ab sen t by age 14.
8 percent if b o th biological p a re n ts w ere ab sen t at age 14 (mostly
ad op ted c h ild ren ).
10 p erc en t if b o th biological p a re n ts w ere present at age 14-
2 3 p erc en t if the biological father was a b se n r by age 14 b u t no t the
b io lo g ic a l mother.
T h e r e is c o n sid e ra b le food for t h o u g h t h ere, but we refrain from sp e c

ulation. T h e m a in p o in t for our p u rp oses is t h a t family structure is clearly
im p o rta n t as a cau se of illegitim acy in th e n e x t generation .
Did c o g n i tiv e ability still c o n t i n u e to p la y an in d e p e n d e n t role? Yes,
for all th e different family c o n fig u ratio n s t h a t we exam in ed . Indeed, the
in d e p e n d e n t effect of IQ was s o m e tim e s a u g m e n te d by raking family
structure in to a c c o u n t. C o n s id e r the c a se o t a youn g w om an a t risk, h a v
ing lived w ith an unm arried b io lo g ic al m o t h e r at age 14. G i v e n av e r
a g e s o c i o e c o n o m i c b a c k g r o u n d and an average IQ, the probability that

h e r first b a b y w o u ld be bo rn out of wedlock was 25 perc en t. It she had
a n I Q at the 9 8 th c e n t i le (an IQ o f 130 or a b o v e ) , the probability
p lu n g e d t o 8 p e r c e n t. I f she had an IQ at rhe 2d c en tile (an IQ of 7 0 or
b e lo w ) , th e p ro b a b ility so a red to 55 percent. H igh so c io e c o n o m i c sta
tus offered w e a k p r o t e c t i o n against illegitimacy o n ce IQ had b een taken
in to a c c o u n t . 1
T h e R ole o f Poverty a n d W elfare
In rhe n e x t c h ap ter, we discuss IQ in relation to welfare d e p e n d e n c e .

H e r e , we ta k e up a c o m m o n argum ent about welfare as a cau se ot ille
g itim acy. It is n o t th a t low IQ causes w om en to hav e illegitim ate hahies,
th is a r g u m e n t suggests, but that the c o m b in a tio n of poverty and w el
fare c au se s w o m e n to h a v e illegitimate babies. T h e logic is th at a poor
w o m a n w h o is assured o f clothes, shelter, food, and m ed ic al care will
t a k e fewer p r e c a u tio n s to av oid getting pregnant, or, o n c e p regn an t, will
p o t less p ressu re o n the b a b y s father to marry her, t h a n a w o m a n who
is n o t assu red of su p po rt. T h e r e are two versions of the argu m ent. O n e
se e s the w elfare sy stem as bribing w om en to h av e babies; they get p reg
n a n t so they c a n get a welfare check. T h e alternative, w hich we find
m o r e plau sible, is th a t th e welfare c h e c k (and the colla teral g oo d s and
se rv ic e s rhat are parr of th e welfare system ) enables w o m e n to d o s o m e
th in g th a t m a n y y o u n g w o m en might naturally like to d o anyway: bear
c h ild re n .
T h e c o n tr o v e r s y a b o u t the welfare ex p la n atio n , in eith er rhe e n
a b l i n g o r b r i b e v e rsio n , has been intense, with m an y issues still u n
r e s o l v e d . 1' 1 W h i c h e v e r v ersion is em ployed, the reason for fo c u sin g on
th e role of p o v e rty is o b v io u s: For affluent young w om en , the welfare
sy ste m is o b v io u sly irrelevant. T h e y are restrained from h a v in g babies
o u t of w e d lo c k by m o ra l c o n sid eratio n s or by fear ot the social p enalties
( b o t h ot w h ic h still e x ist, though weakened, in m iddle-class circ les), by
a c o n c e r n th at the c h il d h a v e a father around the house, an d because
h a v i n g a b a b y w o u ld interfere with their plans for the future. In the p o o r
est c o m m u n i t ie s , h a v in g a bahy out of w edlock is n o longer su b je c t to
s o c i a l stig m a, n o r d o m o r a l con sid eratio n s app ear to carry m u ch weight
a n y lon g er; it is not irrespo n sib le to h av e a child out o f w ed lo ck, the ar
g u m e n t is m o re likely to go, because a single young w o m a n c a n in tact
Family Matters 187
support the child w ith ou t th e h e l p o f a h u s b a n d . 1 A n d th a t brin g s t h e

welfare system in to the p ic tu re . For p o o r y o u n g w om en, th e w elfare s y s
tem is highly relevant, e a s i n g th e s h o r t - t e r m e c o n o m ic p e n a l t i e s t h a t
m ight ordinarily restrain th e ir c h i l d b e a r i n g . 4 T h e p oorer she is, t h e
more a ttra c tiv e the welfare p a c k a g e is a n d the m ore likely th a t s h e will
th ink herself en abled to h a v e a b a b y hy r e c e i v i n g it.
G i v e n this argu m ent a n d g i v e n t h a t p o v e r t y an d low I Q are r e l a t e d ,
let us ask w h e th e r the a p p a r e n t r e l a t i o n s h i p b etw een IQ an d i l l e g i t i
m acy is an artifact. Poor w o m e n d is p r o p o r t i o n a t e l y hav e low I Q s , a n d
hear a d isp ro p o rtio n ate n u m b e r of il l e g it i m a t e habies. C o n t r o l fo r th e
effects ot poverty, says this log ic, a n d t h e re la tio n sh ip h etw een I Q a n d
illegitimacy will dim in ish .
Let us see. First, we ask w h e t h e r the in itia l c o n d itio n is true: Is h a v
ing babies out of w edlock s o m e t h i n g that is d o n e d isp ro p o r tio n a te ly n o t
only by w o m en w ho c o m e f r o m low s o c i o e c o n o m i c b a ck gro u n d s ( a fac t
which we already h av e d is c u s s e d ) , but w o m e n who are literally p o o r
th em selv es w h en they r e a c h c h ild b e a rin g ; ag e. Even m ore sp ec ifica lly,
are they d isp ro p o rtio n ately l iv i n g b e lo w t h e p overty line before the birth ?
W e use the italics to e m p h a siz e a d i s t i n c t i o n th a t we b eliev e offers a n
im portant new p ersp ective o n s in g le m o t h e r h o o d and poverty. It is o n e
thing to say that single w o m e n w ith b a b i e s are d isp ro p o r tio n ate ly poor,
as we d iscussed in C h a p t e r 5. T h a t m a k e s s e n s e , because a sin gle w o m a n
with a child is often not a v i a b l e e c o n o m i c unit. It is quite a n o t h e r th i n g
to say that w o m e n who are a lr e a d y p o o r b e c o m e mothers. N o w we are
argu ing that there is s o m e t h i n g a b o u t b e i n g in the state of p o v e rty i t
self (after h o l d in g the s o c i o e c o n o m i c s t a t u s in which they were raised
c o n s ta n t) t h a t m akes h a v i n g a b a b y w i t h o u t a husband a tt r a c tiv e .
To put the q u estio n in o p e r a t i o n a l te rm s: A m o n g N L S Y w h ite m o t h
ers w ho were below the p o v e rty line in th e y ear prior to g iv in g b irth ,
w hat p ro p o rtio n ol the b a b ie s were b o rn o u t o f wedlock? T h e a n s w e r is
4 4 percent. A m o n g N L S Y w h i te m o t h e r s w h o were anyw here ab ove th e
poverty line in the year b e fo re g i v i n g b ir th , w h a t p ro p o rtio n ot th e b a
bies were b o rn out of w e d lo c k ? T h e a n s w e r is o n ly 6 p ercent. It is a h u g e
difference a n d m ak es a p r i m a fac ie c a s e f o r t h o s e who argue th at p o v e r t y
itself, p resum ably via th e w elfare s y s t e m , is a n im p ortan t c a u s e of i l l e
gitimacy.
But now we turn to th e rest of th e h y p o th e s i s : that c o n t r o l l i n g fo r
poverty will e x p la in aw ay at least s o m e o f the a p p are n t r e l a t i o n s h i p b e
tween I Q and illegitimacy. H ere is the basic analysis c o n tr o llin g for

IQ, p aren tal S E S , and age restricted to white w om en w ho were poor
the year before the birth ot their babies.11' 1
C o m p a r e the graph below with the on e before it and two points ab out
white p o o r w om en and illegitimacy are vividly clear. First, the inde-
IQ is a m ore p o w e rfu l p re d ic to r o f illeg itim a cy a m o n g p o o r w h ite

w om en th an a m o n g w h ite w om en a s a w h ole
Probability that the first child will be bom out o f wedlock

fo r white women already below the poverty line
807, -
0 / f I-------------- 1----------------1--------------- 1--------------- 1-

Very low Very high
(-2 SDs) (+2 SOM
Note: Kir computing Ihe plot, age and either S t S (tor the black curve) or IQ (tor the gray
p en d en t im p ortance of intelligence is even greater for p oor white

w om en th a n for white w om en as a whole. A p o o r white w om an of a v
erage so c io e c o n o m ic b ackgro un d and average IQ has m ore than a 35
percent c h a n c e of an illegitim ate first birth. For white w o m e n in g e n
eral, av erag e so c io e c o n o m ic status and IQ resulted in less th an a 15 p er
c en t ch an c e. S e c o n d , a m o n g poor w om en, the role of s o c io e c o n o m ic
background in restraining illegitimacy d isappears o n ce the role of IQ is
tak en in to account.
T h e results, taken literally, suggest that illegitim acy tend s to rise
Family Matters 189
am o n g poor w o m e n w ho c a m e from h ig h e r .so c io ec o n o m ic b a c k g r o u n d

after IQ is ta k e n into a c c o u n t. H ow ever, t h e s a m p le o f w h ite w o m e n i n
cludes too few w o m en w ho fit all of the c o n d i t i o n s (b elo w the p o v e r t y
line, from a g o o d s o c i o e c o n o m i c b a c k g r o u n d , w ith an ille g itim a te b a b y )
to m ake m u c h of this. T h e m o re c o n s e r v a t i v e in te r p r e ta tio n is t h a t low
so c io e c o n o m i c backgro und , in d e p e n d e n t o f I Q a n d c u r r e n t p o v e r t y it
s e l f d o es not increase the c h a n c e s o f g iv in g birth out o f w e d lo c k a m o n g
poor white w o m e n in itself a sufficiently p r o v o c a t iv e f in d in g for s o c i-
Olog ISIS.
O u r m ain purpose h as b e e n to d e m o n s t r a t e th a t low in t e ll i g e n c e is
an im p o rta n t in d e p e n d e n t cau se of illegitim acy, and to d o so w e h a v e
consid ered the role o f poverty. In reality, how ev er, we h a v e also o p e n e d
up m any new a v en u es o f inquiry that w e c a n n o t fully pursue w i t h o u t
writing an entire book on th is su b jec t a l o n e . For e x a m p le , the resu lts
raise m an y q u e stio n s to be asked a b o u t th e culture o f p o v e r t y a r g u
ment. T o the e x te n t that a culture of p o v e rty is at work, tr a n s m i t t in g
d y sfu n c tio n a l values from o n e g e n e r a t io n to th e n ext, it se e m s p a r a
d o x ic a l that low s o c i o e c o n o m i c b a c k g ro u n d d o e s no t foste r ille g itim a c y
o n ce poverty in the year p rior to birth is b r o u g h t in to the picture.
Rut the m a in task posed by these results is to till in the reaso n for t h a t
extrem ely stro n g relatio n sh ip betw een low IQ an d illeg itim acy w ith in
the p o p u la tio n ot poor w hite w o m en . T h e p o ssib ilities b e a r d irectly o n
som e of the core issues in the social p o lic y d e b a te . F or e x a m p le , m a n y
people h av e argued that the welfare sy stem c a n n o t really be a c a u s e of
illegitimacy, b ecau se, in o b je c tiv e term s, th e welfare system is a b a d d e a l.
It provides on ly e n o u g h to sq u eak by, it c a n easily trap y o u n g w o m e n
into lo n g -term d e p e n d e n c e , and e v e n p o o r y o u n g w o m e n w o u ld b e
m uch bette r off by c o m p l e t i n g their e d u c a t io n an d g e t t i n g a jo b r a th e r
th an h a v in g a baby an d g o in g o n welfare. T h e results we h a v e p r e s e n t e d
c an be in terp reted as sayin g th at th e w elfare system may b e a ba d d e a l ,
but it takes foresight a n d in te llig e n c e t o u n d e rsta n d why. For w o m e n
w ithout foresight and in tellig en c e, it m ay se e m to be a g o o d deal. H e n c e
poor youn g w o m e n w ho ate bright ten d n o t to h a v e ille g itim a te b a b i e s
nearly as o fte n as poor y o u n g w o m e n w h o are dull.
A n o t h e r possibility fits in with th o se w ho argue th a t the b e s t p r e
v e n ta tiv e for illegitim acy is bette r o p p o r tu n itie s . It is n o t the w elfare
system that is at fault but the lack o f o t h e r a v e n u e s. P o o r y o u n g w o m e n
who are bright are g e ttin g sc h o larsh ip s, o r oth e rw ise h a v i n g p o s i t iv e i n
190 Cognitive Chisses and Social Behavior
c e n tiv e s offered to them, an d they accordingly defer c h ild bearin g. Poor

y o u n g w o m e n who are dull d o not get such op p ortunities; they h av e
n o th in g e lse to do, and so h a v e a baby. T h e goal should be to provide
them too w ith other ways of seeing their futures.
B o t h of th ese e x p la n a tio n s are stated as hyp otheses that we h o p e o t h
ers will ex p lo re. T h o s e ex p lo ratio n s will h av e to in corp orate our c e n
tral fin d in g , however: C o g n i ti v e ability in itself is an im p o rta n t factor
in illegitim acy, and the d ynam ics for und erstan ding illeg itim acy and
d e a l in g w ith it through policy must take that strong link into a c c o u n t.
T H E S E L E C T IV E D E T E R IO R A T IO N O F T H E T R A D IT IO N A L
F A M IL Y
O u r goal h a s been to sharpen understan ding o f the m u c h - la m e n te d

b re a k d o w n of the A m e ric a n family. T h e A m e ric a n family has been as
battered in the latter d e c ad e s of the tw entieth century as the public
rheto ric would have it, but the d am age as m easured in term s ot d iv orce
a n d illegitim acy has been far m ore selective than we hear. By way of
sum mary, let us consider the children of the while N L S Y m oth ers in rhe
top q u artile of cognitive ability (C'lasses 1 and II) versus th ose in the
b o tto m q u artile (C la sses IV and V):
The percentage of households with children that consist of a m arried cou

ple: 8 7 percent in the top quartile o f IQ, 70 p erc en t in the b o tto m
q uartile.
The percentage of households with children that have experienced di
vorce: 17 percent in the top quartile ot IQ, 3 3 percent in the b o t
to m quartile.
The percentage of children horn out of wedlock: 5 percent in the top
q u artile o f IQ, 2 3 percent in the bottom quartile.
T h e A m e r i c a n family may be generally under siege, as p eo p le often

say. B u t it is at the b o tto m of the co gn itiv e ability distribution that its
d efen ses a re m ost visibly crumbling.
Chapter 9
Welfare Dependency
People have had reason tu assum e for m any years that welfare mothers arc
concentrated at the low end o f the cognitive ability distribution, ij only because
they have generally dime poorly in school. Beyond that, it m akes sense that
sm arter women can more easily find jobs and resist the temptations o f welfare
dependency than duller ones, even if they have given birth out o f wedlock.
The link is confirm ed in the N L SY . O v er three-quarters o f the white women
who were on welfare within a year of the birth o f their first child cam e from
the bottom quartile o f IQ , com pared to 5 percent from the top quartile. W hen
u'c subdivide welfare recipients into two group s, tem porary and "chron ic,"
the link persists, though differently for the two groups.
A m o ng women who received welfare tem porarily, low IQ is a powerful
risk factor even after the effects of m arital statu s, poverty, age, and socioecu-
nomic background are statistically extracted. F o r chronic welfare recipiency,
the story is more complicated. F or practical p u rp oses, white women with
above-average cognitive ability or above-average socioeconomic background
do nor become chronic welfare recipients. A m o n g the restricted sample of loiv-
IQ , low -SE S, an d relatively uneducated ivhite women who are chronically
on w elfare, low socioeconomic background is a more powerful predictor than
low IQ , even after taking account of whether they were themselves below the
poverty line at the time they had their babies.
The analyses jri'ovide some support fo r those who argue that a culture of
poverty tends to transmit chronic welfare dependency from one generation to
the next. But if a culture of poverty is at work, it seem s to have influence pri
marily am ong wom en who are o f low intelligence.
A
part from w h eth er it cau ses increased illegitim a cy , welfare has b e e n
a prickly topic in the social p o licy d e b a t e s in c e shortly after the core
welfare p ro g ram , A i d to Fam ilies w ith D e p e n d e n t C h il d r e n ( A F D C ) ,
was c re a te d in the m i d - 19 30s. O riginally A F D C was a p op u la r idea. N o

o n e in th e c o m m u n ity was a likelier o b je c t of sym pathy th a n the youn g
widow w ith sm all c h ild ren to raise, an d A F D C seem ed to be a way to help
her stay h o m e with her c h ild ren until they were old en o u gh to begin ta k
ing care o f her in their turn. A n d if som e o f the w o m en g o in g on A F D C
had no t b e e n w idowed but a b a n d o n e d by n o -goo d h u sban ds, m ost p e o
ple th o u g h t that they should be helped too, though so m e p eop le voiced
c o n c e rn s th a t h elp in g such w om en und erm ined marriage.
But hardly a n y o n e had im agined that never-m arried w om en would
be eligible for A F D C . It c a m e as a distressing surprise to F ran ces Perkins,
rhe first w o m a n c a b in e t m em b er and a primary' sp onso r o f the legisla
tion, to find that they w ere.1 But not only were they eligible; within a
few years after A F D C ' began , they constituted a large an d grow ing p o r
tion o f rhe c aseload . T h i s created m uch o f the general p u b lic s a n t a g o
nism tow ard A F D C : It w a sn t just the money, it was the principle of the
thing. W h y should h ard w o rkin g citizens support im m orality?
S u c h c o m p l a i n t s ab o u t welfare go far back in to the 1940s and ev en
rhe 1 930s, but, at least from our p erspective in the 1990s, it was m u ch
ado a b o u t a c o m p a ra tiv e ly small problem , as the n ex t figure shows. A fte r
T h e w e lfare rev o lu tio n
A F D C caselo ad as a percentage o f fam ilies

8% -
i i i i i i
19 40 1950 1960 197 0 1 98 0 1990
Suurav I IS . Rurciiu of rhe CcnMis, 1975, Table H H6-367; annual data published in the
Social .St\-urm Bulletin.
Welfare Dependency 193
a slow an d m e a n d e r in g rise sin ce the end o f W orld W ar II, the w elfare

caselo ad was still less th an 2 p e rc e n t of f a m ilie s when J o h n F. K e n n e d y
took office. T h e n , as with so m any o th e r social p h e n o m e n a , the dy-
nam ics ab ruptly c h an g e d in m id -1960 s. In a c o n c en trated period f r o m
1966 to 1975, the p ercen tag e o f A m e r i c a n fam ilies on welfare n e a rly
tripled. T h e grow th in the c a se lo a d th e n sto p p e d and ev en d e c li n e d
slightly th ro u gh the 1980s. W elfare rolls h a v e b een rising steeply s in c e
1988, ap p a re n tly b e g in n in g a fourth era. A s of 1992, more th an 14 m i l
lion A m e r i c a n s were on welfare.
T h e steep rise in the welfare p o p u la t io n is obviously no t to be e x
plained by in tellig en ce, w hich did n o t p lu m m e t in the 1960s and 1970s.
M ore fu n d a m e n ta l forces were resh ap in g the social land scape d u rin g
that time. T h e surging welfare p o p u la tio n is just on e ou tcro pp ing a m o n g
others sum m arized in Part II o f troub le in A m e r i c a n society. In this c h a p
ter, the th e m e will be, as it is elsew here in the book, that as so c ie ty
c h an g es, so m e p eop le are especially v u ln e r a b le to the c h an g es in th is
in stan ce, to e v e n ts that cau se d e p e n d e n c e o n welfare. W e show h e re
that low in tellig en c e increases a w hite m o t h e r s risk of going on w elfare,
in d e p e n d e n t of the other factors that m ig h t be ex p ected ro e x p la in aw ay
the relationship.
IQ A N D W E L F A R E
It has n o t b een an op en ly discussed top ic, but there are m any good r e a
sons for a ssu m in g that welfare m oth ers c o m e mainly from the low er
reaches o f the distribution of c o g n itiv e ability. W o m en on welfare h a v e
less e d u c a tio n th a n w om en n o t on w elfare, and chronic welfare r e c ip i
en ts h a v e less e d u c a tio n than n o n c h r o n i c r e c ip i e n t s / Welfare m o th e r s
h av e b een e stim a t e d to h av e read in g sk ills th at average three to fiv e
years below g rad e level.' Poor read in g sk ills an d little sc h oolin g d e fin e
p o p u la tio n s w ith low er-th an -average IQ, so e v e n without access to I Q
tests, it c a n be d ed u c ed that welfare m o th e r s h av e low er-th an -average
in telligence. Bur c a n it be show n th a t low I Q has an in dep en d en t lin k
with welfare itself, after tak in g a c c o u n t of the less direct links via b e i n g
poor a n d b e in g an unw ed m other?4
By a direct link, we m ean so m e th i n g like this: T h e sm arter the w o m a n
is, the m ore likely she will be able to find a jo b , the more likely she will
be able to line up o th e r sources of su p p o rt (fro m parents or the fath e r o f
the c h ild ), a n d the m ore farsighted she is likely ro be about the d a n g e r s
o f g o in g o n welfare. Ev en within the p o p u la tio n o f w o m e n who go on

welfare, c o g n itiv e ability will vary, and the sm arter o n e s will be better
ab le to g e t off.
N o d a ta b a se until the N L S Y has offered the c h a n c e to test these h y
p o th e se s in d etail for a rep resentative population. W e begin as usual
w ith a look at the u n ad o rn ed relationship with co g n itiv e class.
U s e o f welfare is u n c o m m o n but no t rare am o n g these w hite m o t h
ers, as th e table below shows. O verall, 12 percent of th e white m others
W h ich W h ite W om en G o on W elfare

A fte r th e B ir th o f th e F ir st C h ild .7
P erce n ta g e of P e rce n ta g e of
M o th e rs W ho M o th e rs W ho
W ent on A F D C B e ca m e C h ro n ic
W ith in a Year W elfare
o f F ir st B irth C o gn itive C la ss R e c ip ie n ts
1 I Very bright 1
4 11 Bright 2
12 111 N orm al 8
21 IV Dull 17
55 V Very dull 31
12 O verall average 9
' Sam ple = 17, with no one qualifying as a chronic we I(are recipient. Mini-
mum sample reported: 25.
in the N L S Y received welfare within a year o f the birth ot their first

child ; 9 percent had becom e chronic recipients by our d efin itio n of
c h r o n ic welfare recipients ( m e an in g that they had reported at least five
years of welfare in co m e). O v erall, 21 percent o f w hite m oth ers had re
c eiv ed assistan c e from A F D C at som e p oint in their lives.11' T h e differ
e n c e s a m o n g the c og n itiv e classes are large, with a c o n sp icu o u sly large
ju m p in the rates at the bo ttom . T h e p rop ortion of w o m e n in C l a s s IV
w h o b e c a m e chronic welfare recipients is double the rate for C l a s s 111,
w ith a n o t h e r big ju m p tor C la ss V, to 31 percent of all m others.
T h i s result should c o m e as no surprise, given what we already know
a b o u t th e higher rates o f illegitim ate births in the lower half o f the c o g
n itiv e ability d istribution ( C h a p t e r 8). W o m e n w ith out h u sb a n d s are
m o st at risk for goin g on welfare. W e also know that p overty has a strong
a s s o c ia tio n w ith the birth status of the child. In fact, it m ay be asked
Welfare Dependency 19 5
w h eth er we are look in g at a n y th in g e x c e p t a reflection o f ille g itim a c y

and poverty in these figures. T h e an sw er is yes, hut a so m e w h a t differ-
en t y es for perio dic and for c h r o n ic w elfare recipiency.
G O IN G O N W E L FA R E A F T E R T H E B IR T H O F T H E F IR S T C H I L D
First, we ask o f the odds that a w o m a n h ad re c e iv e d welfare hy the e n d o f

the first c a le n d a r year after the birth o f h e r first ch ild .161 In all cases, w e
lim it the analysis to white w o m e n w h o se first child was b o rn p rio r t o
1989, so that all h a v e had a sufficient c h a n c e to go on welfare.
If we w an t to understand the in d e p e n d e n t relationship h e tw e e n I Q
and welfare, the stan dard analysis, usin g j u s t age, IQ, and p a r e n ta l S E S ,
is nor g o in g to tell us m uch. W e h a v e to g e t rid of the c o n fo u n d in g e f
fects of b ein g poor and unwed. For that re a so n , the analysis that y ie ld e d
the figure b elow e x trac te d the effects of t h e m arital status of the m o t h e r
E v e n a fte r p o v erty an d m a rita l s t a t u s a re ta k e n in to a c c o u n t,

I Q p la y e d a su b sta n tia l ro le in d e te r m in in g w h e th e r w h ite
w o m en go o n w e lfa r e
P ro b a b ility o f g o in g on w e lfa r e w ith in a y e a r after birth

5()'7r -
Very low Very high

(-2 SDs) [+2 SDs)
Note: For computin g the plot, age and cither S E S (for the hlack curves) or IQ (tor rhe gray
curves) were ser at their mean values. Additional independent variables of which rhe ettects
have been extracted for the plot: marital status at the time o f first birth, an d poverty status
in rhe calendar year prior to the first birth.
and w h e th e r sh e was below the poverty line in the year before birth, in
a d d itio n to the usual three variables. T h e d ep e n d en t v ariab le is w hether
the m o t h e r received welfare benefits during rhe year after the birth ot
her first c h ild . A s the black line in dicates, cognitive ability predicts g o
ing o n w elfare e v e n after the effects of marital status an d poverty h av e
been e x tr a c te d . T h is finding is worth thinking about, for it is not in tu
itively p re d ic tab le. Presumably m uch o f the impact of low in telligence
on b ein g o n welfare the failure to look ahead, to c onsid er c o n s e
quences, o r to g e t an ed u c atio n is already captured in the fact that the
w o m an h a d a baby out o f wedlock. O th e r elem ents uf c o m p e t e n c e , or
lack of it, are captured in the fact that the wom an was p oor before the
baby was born. Yet holding the effects of age, poverty, m arital status,
and p a re n ta l S E S constant, a white w om an with an IQ at the 2d c e n
tile h ad a 4 7 percen t c h an c e of going on welfare, c om pared to the 8 p er
cent c h a n c e l a c in g a white w om an at the 98 th centile.
T h e s o c i o e c o n o m i c background o f these mothers was n o t a sta t isti
cally sig n ific a n t factor in their going on welfare.
The Rnlc of Education
We c a n n o t analyze welfare recipiency am o n g white w om en with a b a c h

elors d eg re e because it was so rare: O f the 102 white m oth ers with a
B .A . ( n o m ore, no less) who met the criteria for rhe sam p le, 101 had
never re c e iv e d any welfare. But we can take a look at the high school
sam ple. F or th em , low cogn itiv e ability was as d ecisive as for the entire
p o p u la tio n of N L S Y white mothers. T h e m agnitude of the in dep en d en t
effect o f I Q was about the sam e, and the effect of so c io e c o n o m ic status
was a g a in statistically insignificant. T h e other variables sw ept away all
ot the c o n n e c t i o n s between welfare and social class that seem so e v i
dent in e v e ry d a y life.
C H R O N IC W ELFA RE D EPEN D EN C Y
N o w we fo c u s o n n subset o f w om en w h o go on welfare, rhe ch ron ic

welfare re c ip ie n ts. T h e y con stitu te a world o f their own. In the course
o f the furious political and scholarly struggle over welfare during the
1980s, tw o s ta b le and con sisten t findings em erged, e ac h h a v in g different
im p lic atio n s: T a k in g all rhe w om en who ever go on welfare, the a v e r
age spell lasts on ly ab ou t two years.' Rut a m o n g n e v e r - m a r r ie d m o t h e r s

(all races) w h o had their b a b ies in t h e i r t e e n s , th e a v e r a g e t i m e o n w e l
fare is eight or m ore years, d e p e n d i n g o n t h e s a m p l e b ein g in v e s t i g a t e d .*
T h e w hite w o m e n who had m e t o u r d e f i n i t i o n of c h r o n i c w elfare r e
cipient in the N L S Y by the 1 9 9 0 i n t e r v i e w fit th is profile t o s o m e e x
tent. For e x a m p le , o f the white w o m e n w h o g a v e birt h to a n il l e g it i m a t e
baby before they were 19 ( th a t is, they p r o b a b l y g o t p r e g n a n t b efo re they
would n o rm ally h a v e g rad u ated from h igh s c h o o l ) a n d s ta y e d sin g le , 22
percent b e c a m e c h ron ic welfare r e c i p i e n t s by o u r d e f i n i t i o n a h ig h
p ercentage c o m p a r e d to w o m en at large. O n the o t h e r h a n d , 22 p e r c e n t
is a long way from 100 perc en t. E v e n if w e restric t rhe c rite r ia fu rth er
so rhat we are talk in g about sin g le t e e n a g e m o t h e r s w h o w ere b e lo w th e
poverty line, the probability ot b e c o m i n g a c h r o n i c w elfare r e c ip i e n t
goes up only to 28 percent.
To get an idea of how restric ted the p o p u l a t i o n of c h r o n i c w e lfare
m others is, c o n sid e r the 152 w h ite w o m e n in th e N L S Y w h o m e t o u r
definition of a c h ro n ic welfare r e c ip i e n t a n d a ls o h a d IQ scores. N o n e
of them was in C o g n i t i v e ( ' l a s s 1, a n d o n l y five were e v e n in C l a s s II.
('inly live had parents in the t o p q u a r ti le in s o c i o e c o n o m i c class. O n e
lone w om an ot the 1 52 was fro m th e to p q u a r t i l e in ability an d fro m the
top q uartile in s o c io e c o n o m ic b a c k g r o u n d . W h i t e w o m e n with a b o v e -
average c o g n itiv e ability or s o c i o e c o n o m i c b a c k g r o u n d rarely b e c o m e
chronic welfare recipients.
K e e p in g this Light restriction ot r a n g e in m in d , c o n s i d e r w h at h a p
pens w h e n we repeat the p rev io u s a n a ly s is ( i n c l u d i n g th e e x t r a v a r ia b le s
c o n tro llin g tor m arital status a n d p o v e r t y at th e tim e ot first b irth ) b u t
this tim e c o m p a r in g m others w h o b e c a m e c h r o n i c w elfare re c ip ie n ts
with w om en w h o n ev er rec e iv e d any w e l fa r e .1^ A c c o r d i n g t o the figure,
when it c o m e s to c h ron ic w h ite w e lfa re m o t h e r s , th e in d e p e n d e n t e f
fect o f the y o u n g w o m a n s s o c i o e c o n o m i c b a c k g r o u n d is su b s t a n t ia l.
W h e th e r it b e c o m e s m ore im p o r t a n t t h a n I Q a s th e fig u re su g g e sts is
doubtful (th e c o rre sp o n d in g a n a ly s is in A p p e n d i x 4 says n o ) , but c le a r ly
the role of s o c i o e c o n o m i c b a c k g r o u n d is d iffe r e n t for all w elfare r e c i p
ients a n d c h ro n ic ones. W e s p e n t m u c h t i m e e x p l o r i n g th is shift in th e
role of s o c i o e c o n o m i c b a c k g ro u n d , t o try t o p in d o w n w h a t was g o i n g
on. We will n o t d escribe our i n v e s t i g a t i o n w ith its m a n y in t e r e s t i n g b y
ways, in stead sim p ly reporting w h ere we c a m e o u t. T h e a n s w e r t u rn s o u t
to hinge on ed u c a tio n .
S o c io e c o n o m ic b a c k g ro u n d and I Q are bo th im p o rta n t

in d e te rm in in g w h e th e r w h ite w om en b e co m e
c h ro n ic w elfare re c ip ie n ts
P ro b a b ility o f b e in g a ch ro n ic w e lfa re recipien t
Very low Very high

(-2 SDs) (+2 SDs)
N ote: For compu tin g the plot, age and either S E S (for the black curves) or IQ (lor the gray
curves) were set at their mean values. Additional independent variables of which the effects
have been extracted for the plot: marital status at the time ot first birth, and poverty status
in the calendar year prior to the first birth.
T he Role o f E ducation
W h ite c h r o n ic welfare recip ien ts are virtually all w om en with m o d est

e d u c a t io n at best, as set ou t in the next table. M ore th an half of the
c h ro n ic welfare recipients h ad not gotte n a high sc h o o l d ip lo m a ; only
six - te n th s o f 1 percent had g o tte n a college ed u catio n . A s in the c ase
o f I Q an d s o c io e c o n o m ic status, this is a radically u n rep resen ta tiv e s a m
ple o f w hite w o m e n .|ldi It is obviously im possible (as well as u n n e c e s
sary) to analyze ch ron ic welfare recipiency a m o n g c ollege graduates.
T h e w o m e n for w h o m s o c io e c o n o m ic background was the m a in risk
fac to r for bein g c hronically o n welfare are those who had n o t finished
h ig h sc h o o l. For w om en with a high sch ool d ip lo m a or m ore, IQ was
E d u c a tio n a l A tta in m e n t o f W h ite

C h r o n ic W e lfare R e c ip ie n t s
H ig h e st D egree P e rc e n ta g e
A d v an ced degree 0
B .A . or B.S. 1
A sso ciate degree 3
H igh school diplom a 42
GEO 16
L ess than high sch ool 38
m ore im p o r ta n t rhan s o c io e c o n o m ic st a t u s ( o t h e r things equal) in a f

fectin g the p robability of b e c o m in g a c h r o n i c welfare recipient.1111
W h y ? A p p a r e n tly rhe w om en w h o did n o t fin ish high school a n d h a d
a n illeg itim ate c h ild were selected for low in tellig en c e, especially if they
had the child while still in high s c h o o l . 1121 T h e average IQ o f th ese
w o m en was a b o u t 91, a n d analysis tells us th at further variation in c o g
nitive ahility d oes not h av e m u ch p o w er to p re d ic t w hich ones b e c o m e
c h ro n ic welfare c ases.1" 1 Instead, for th is narrowly screened group o f
w om en , fam ily background m atters m ore. W i t h o u t trying to push the
analysis m u c h further, a plausible e x p l a n a t i o n is that for most w h ite
A m e r i c a n p aren ts, h av in g a sc h o o l- a g e d ch ild g o on welfare is h igh ly
stigm atizing to them. If the d a u g h te r o f a w ork in g -class or m iddle-class
co u p le has a n illegitim ate baby out o f w e d lo c k w hile still in high sc h o o l,
c h a n c e s are th at her p aren ts will tak e o v e r su p po rt for the new baby
rather th an let their d au g h ter go o n w elfare. T h e parents who d o n o t
keep their sc h o o l-ag e d d au gh ter off w elfare will tend to be those w h o
are no t d eterred by the stig m a or w h o are th e m se lv e s too poor to s u p
port th e new baby. B o th sets of p a re n ts e arn low scores on the s o c i o
e c o n o m i c sta tu s index. H e n c e w h a t we are o b se rv in g in the c ase ot
ch ron ic welfare recipiency a m o n g y o u n g w o m e n w h o d o n o t finish h ig h
sch o o l may reflect p arental b e h a v io r as m u c h as the young m o th e rs b e
havior.1141
O t h e r h y p o th e se s are possible, h o w e v e r. G e n e r a l ly these results p r o
vide e v i d e n c e for those w ho argue th at a c u lture of poverty tran sm its
ch ron ic welfare d e p e n d e n c y from o n e g e n e r a t io n to the next. O u r
analysis adds that w o m en w ho are s u sc e p tib le to this culture are likely
to hav e low in tellig en c e in the first p la ce .
D R A W IN G T O G E T H E R T H E F IN D IN G S O N IL L E G IT IM A C Y
A N D W ELFA RE
A s so c ial sc ie n tists often do, we hav e s p e n t m uch effort burrowing

t h r o u g h an a ly ses th at ultim ately point to sim ple c on c lu sio n s. H ere is
h o w a great m an y parents aro un d A m e ric a h av e put it to their d a u g h
ters: H a v i n g a baby without a h u sb a n d is a dum b thing to do. G o i n g on
w elfare is a n ev e n d u m b e r t h in g to do, if you can possihly av oid it. A n d
so it w ould seem to be a m o n g the white w om en in the N L S Y . W h ite
w o m e n w h o rem ain ed child less or had babies within m arriage had a
m e a n IQ o f 105. T h o s e w ho had an illegitimate baby but n ev er w ent on
w elfare had a m e a n IQ o f 98. T h o s e who went on welfare hut did not
b e c o m e c h ro n ic recip ients h ad a m ean I Q of 94. T h o s e w ho b e c am e
c h r o n i c welfare recip ients h ad a m ean IQ o f 9 2 .11,1 A lto g eth er, alm o st a
s ta n d a rd d e v i a tio n separated the IQs o f white w om en w ho b e c am e
c h r o n i c welfare recipients from those w ho rem ained c h ild less or had
c h il d r e n w ith in marriage.
In C h a p t e r 8, we d e m o n strate d that a low IQ is a factor in illegiti
m a te births that c a n n o t be exp la in ed away by the w o m a n s s o c i o
e c o n o m i c b a c k g ro u n d , a bro ken family, or poverty at the rime the child
was c o n c e iv e d . In particular, p oor w om en o f low in telligence seem ed
e sp ecially likely to h av e illegitim ate babies, which is co n sisten t with the
id ea t h a t th e prospect o f welfare loom s largest for w o m en w ho are th i n k
in g least clearly ab o u t their futures. In this chapter, we h a v e d e m o n
strate d th at e v e n a m o n g w o m en who are p oor a n d e v e n a m o n g those
w h o h a v e a baby w ith ou t a hu sband, the less intelligent tend to be the
o n e s w ho use the welfare system.
T w o q u alific a tio n s to this c o n clu sio n are that (1) we h a v e n o way
o f k n o w in g w h eth er higher ed u c atio n or higher IQ e x p la in s why
c o l le g e g rad u ates d o no t use welfare all we know is th at welfare is
a l m o s t u n k n o w n a m o n g college-ed u cated whites, but th at for w o m en
w ith a h igh sc h o o l e d u c atio n , intelligence plays a large in d e p e n d e n t
ro le an d ( 2 ) for the lo w -lQ w o m en without a high sch ool ed u c a tio n
w h o b e c o m e c h ro n ic welfare recipients, a low s o c io e c o n o m ic b a c k
g r o u n d is a m ore im p orta n t pred ictor th a n any further in fluen ce o f
c o g n i t iv e ability.
T h e r e m a in in g issue, w h ich we defer to the discu ssion o f welfare p o l
icy in C h a p t e r 22, is how to recon cile two c on flictin g p ossibilities, both
of w hich may h a v e som e truth to th em : G o i n g o n w elfare really is a

dum h idea, an d that is why w om en w h o a re low in c o g n i tiv e ability en d
up there; but a lso su c h w om en h av e little to take to the job m ark et, a n d
welfare is on e o f their tew ap p rop riate rec o u rses w h en they h av e a baby
to care tor an d n o h u sb a n d to help.
Chapter 10
Parenting
EVermont* agrees, in the abstract and at the extrem es, that there is good p a r
enting and poor parenting. This chapter addresses the uncomfortable q u es
tion: Is the competence o f parents at all affected by how intelligent they are?
It has been known for some time that socioeconom ic class and parenting
are linked, both to disciplinary practices and to the many ways in which the
intelU'Ctual arid emotional development of the child are fostered. O n both
counts, parents with higher socioeconomic status look better. At the other end
of the parenting continuum, neglect and abuse are heavily concentrated in the
lower socioeconomic ckisses.
W henever an IQ m easure has been introduced into studies o f parent-child
relationships, it has explained aw ay m uck o f the differences that otherwise
would have been attributed to education or social class, but the examples are
sparse. The N L S Y provides an opportunity to fill in a few of the gaps.
With regard to prenatal and infant care, low IQ among the white mothers
in the N L S Y sam ple was related to low birth weight, even after controlling fo r
socioeconomic background, poverty, and age of the mother. In the N L S Y s
surveys o f the home environment, mothers in the top cognitive ckisses p ro
vided, on average, better environments for children than the mothers in the
bottom cognitive classes. Socioeconom ic background and current poverty also
played significant roles, depending on the specific type o f measure and the age
o f the children.
In the N L S Y s measures of child developm ent, low m aternal IQ w as a s s o
ciated with problem atic temperament in the baby and with low scores on a n
index of friendliness," with poor m otor an d social development of toddlers
and with behavioral problems from age 4 on u p . Poverty usually had a m o d
est independent role but did not usually diminish the contribution of IQ ( which
was usually also m odest). Predictably, the m others IQ w as also strongly r e
lated to the IQ o f the child.
Taking these d ata together, the N L S Y results say clearly that high IQ is by
no means a prerequisite for being a good m other. The disquieting finding is
that the w orst environments for raising children, o f the kind that not even the
m ost resilient children can easily overcome, are concentrated in the homes in
which the mothers are a t the low end o f the intelligence distribution.
aren tin g, in o n e sen se th e m o st p riv a te o f b eh a v io rs, is in a n o th e r
P the m o st public. P a ren ts m a k e a d ifferen ce in the w ay their ch ild ren

turn o u t w h e th e r they b e c o m e law a b id in g or crim in al, g en ero u s or
stingy, p ro d u c tiv e or d e p e n d e n t. H o w well p aren ts raise th eir ch ild ren
h a s m u c h to d o w ith h o w well th e society fu n ction s.
B u t h o w are p a re n ts to k n o w w h e th e r they are d o in g a g o o d or a b a d
jo b as p aren ts? T h e results se e m to be h o p elessly u n p red ic tab le. M o s t
p e o p le k n o w a t least o n e c o u p le w h o se e m to b e the id ea l p a re n ts but
w h o se te e n a g e c h ild e n d s up o n drugs. P a ren ts w ith m o re t h a n o n e c h ild
are b e m u se d by h o w differently th eir c h ild re n re sp o n d to th e sam e h o m e
a n d p a r e n ta l style. A n d w h a t m a k e s a g o o d p a r e n t anyw ay? M o s t p e o
p le also h a v e friends w h o se e m to b e raisin g th eir c h ild re n all wrong,
a n d y e t th e c h ild re n flourish.
T h e e x c e p tio n s n o tw ith sta n d in g , th e a p p a re n t u n p re d ic tab ility o f
p a r e n tin g is a n o th e r o f th o se illusions fostered by the gro u n d -lev el view
o f life as w e live it from day to day. P a r e n tin g is m o re p re d ic ta b le in the
ag g reg ate t h a n in the particular. T h e differen ces in p a r e n tin g style t h a t
y ou ob serv e a m o n g your friends are usually m in o r th e restric tion o f
r a n g e p r o b le m t h a t we d iscu ssed in C h a p t e r 3. A m id dle-class m o th e r
m a y t h in k t h a t o n e o f h e r friends is far to o p erm issiv e or strict, b u t p u t
ag a in st th e full ran ge o f v a r ia t io n t h a t p o lic e a n d so c ia l workers are
forced to d e a l with, w here p e rm issiv e n e ss is c o n v e r te d in to the n u m
b er o f days t h a t sm all c h ild re n are left o n th eir o w n a n d strictn ess m ay
b e c alib r a te d by the n u m b e r o f stitc h e s req u ired to clo se th e w ou n d s
fro m a p a r e n ta l b e a tin g , th e differen ces b e tw e e n h er a n d h er friend are
p ro b a b ly sm all.
D e sp ite all th e differen ces a m o n g c h ild re n a n d p aren ts, there is su c h
a th in g as g o o d p a r e n tin g as o p p o se d to b a d n o t precisely d e fin e d but
g en erally u n d erstoo d . O u r d isc u ssio n p ro c e e d s from the a ssu m p tio n th a t
g o o d p a r e n tin g in clu d es ( t h o u g h is n o t restricted to) se e in g to n o u rish
m e n t a n d h e a lth , k e e p in g safe from h arm , feelin g a n d exp ressin g love,
talk in g w ith a n d listen in g to, h e l p i n g to e x p lo re th e world, im p artin g
v a lu es, a n d p ro v id in g a fram ew o rk o f rules e n fo rc e d c o n siste n tly b u t n o t
inflexibly. P a ren ts w h o m o re or less m a n a g e to d o all th o se things, we
Parenting 205
assert, are b e tte r p a re n ts t h a n p e o p le w h o d o n o t. T h e to u c h y q u e stio n

o f this c h a p te r is: D o e s c o g n itiv e ability p la y an y role in this? A r e p e o
p le w ith h i g h IQ s generally b e tte r p a re n ts t h a n p e o p le w ith low IQ s?
S O C IA L C L A S S A N D P A R E N T IN G S T Y L E S
T h e re la tio n sh ip o f I Q to p a r e n tin g is a n o th e r o f th ose issues t h a t s o

c ia l scien tists h a v e b e e n slow to in vestigate. F urth erm ore, this is a top ic
for w h i c h th e N L S Y is lim ited . F or u n e m p lo y m e n t, sc h o o l d rop ou t, il
legitimacy, or welfare recipiency, the N L S Y p erm its us to cu t directly to
th e q u e stio n , W h a t d oes c o g n itiv e ability h a v e to d o w ith this b e h a v
ior? B u t m a n y o f th e N L S Y in d ic ators a b o u t p a r e n tin g give o n ly in d i
rect ev id e n c e . T o in terpret t h a t e v id e n c e , it is useful to b e g in w ith the
large b o d y o f studies th a t h a v e in v e stig a te d w h e th e r so c ial c lass affects
p aren tin g . H a v i n g d esc rib ed th a t re la tio n sh ip ( w h ic h by n o w is re a
s o n ab ly well u n d e rsto o d ), we will be o n firm er g ro u n d in d raw in g in
feren ces a b o u t c o g n itiv e ability.
T h e first sch olarly study o f p a r e n tin g styles a m o n g p a re n ts o f differ
e n t so c ia l classes d ate s b a c k to 1 9 3 6 a n d a W h i t e H o u se c o n fe re n c e o n
c h ild r e n .1 E v e r since, the an th ro p o lo g is ts a n d soc io lo g ists h a v e told sim
ilar stories. W ork in g -class p a re n ts te n d to be m o re a u th o rita ria n t h a n
m id d le-class p aren ts. W o rk in g -class p a re n ts te n d to use p h y sic al p u n
ish m e n t a n d d irec t c o m m a n d s , w hereas m id d le-class p a re n ts te n d to use
r e a so n in g a n d a p p e a ls to m o re a b stra c t p rin c ip les o f behavio r. T h e c o n
sisten cy o f th e se findings e x te n d s from th e earliest studies to th e m o st
r e c e n t.121
In a n in flu en tial article p u b lish e d in 1 959, M e lv i n K o h n p ro p o se d
t h a t th e u n d erlying differen ce w as t h a t w ork ing-class p a re n ts w ere m o st
c o n c e r n e d a b o u t q ualities in th e ir c h ild re n th a t ensure respectability,
w hereas m id d le-class p a re n ts w ere m o st c o n c e r n e d a b o u t in ternalized
sta n d a rd s o f c o n d u c t . 3 K o h n argued t h a t th e real d ifferen ce in th e use
o f p hy sic al p u n is h m e n t was n o t t h a t w ork ing-class p a re n ts p u n is h m ore
b u t t h a t they p u n ish differently from m id d le-class p aren ts. Im m e d ia te
irritants like b o istero us p lay m ig h t e v o k e a w h a c k from w orking-class
p aren ts, w h erea s m id d le-class p a re n ts t e n d e d to p u n ish w h e n th e in te n t
o f the c h il d s b e h a v io r (k n o w in g ly h u rtin g a n o th e r child , for e x a m p le )
was p r o b le m a tic .4 K o h n c o n c l u d e d th a t th e w ork ing-class o r i e n ta tio n
. . . p la c e s few restraints o n th e im p ulse to p u n ish th e c h ild w h e n h is b e
h a v io r is o u t o f b o u n d s. In stead, it p ro v id es a p o sitiv e r a tio n a le for p u n
ish in g th e c h ild in precisely th o se c irc u m sta n c e s w h e n o n e m ig h t m o st

like to d o so .5 T o p u t it m o re plainly, K o h n fo u n d t h a t w ork ing-class
p a re n ts w ere m o re likely to use p h y sic a l p u n is h m e n t im pulsively, w h e n
th e p a re n ts th e m se lv e s n e e d e d th e relief, n o t w h e n it was likely to do
th e c h ild th e m o st good.
T h e m id dle-class w ay so u n d s like b e tte r b e h a v io r o n th e p a rt o f p a r
ents, n o t ju st a n eu tra l s o c i o e c o n o m i c differen ce in p a r e n tin g style, a n d
this raises a p o i n t t h a t sch o lars o n c h ild d e v e l o p m e n t b e n d ov er b a c k
w ard to a v o id saying explicitly: G en erally , a n d k e e p in g in m in d the
m a n y e x c e p tio n s, th e c o n c lu s io n to be d raw n from the literature o n p a r
e n tin g is t h a t m id d le-class p e o p le are in fac t b e tte r p aren ts, o n average,
t h a n w ork ing-class p e o p le . R e a d e r s w h o bridle at this su g gestio n are in
v ite d to reread th e K o h n q u o t a t i o n a b o v e a n d ask th e m se lv e s w h e th e r
th ey c a n a v o id m a k in g a v a lu e ju d g m e n t a b o u t it.
P a re n tin g differen ces a m o n g th e so c ial classes are n o t restricted to
m atters o f discip lin e. O t h e r m a jo r differen ces show up in th e in te lle c
tu al d e v e l o p m e n t o f th e child. A n t h r o p o lo g i s t S h irle y B ric e H e a t h 6
gives v iv id e x a m p le s in h e r d e sc rip tio n o f p a r e n tin g in R o a d v il le , a
w h ite lower-class c o m m u n i ty in the C a r o lin a s , versus G a te w a y , a
n e a rb y c o m m u n ity o f w h ite m id d le-class p a r e n ts.171T h e p a re n ts o f R o a d -
ville were ju st as d e v o t e d to th eir c h ild re n as th e p a re n ts o f G a tew ay .
R o a d v il le n e w b o rn s c a m e h o m e to nurseries c o m p le te w ith th e sam e
m obiles, p ictures, a n d b o o k s t h a t the G a t e w a y b a bies had . F ro m a n early
age, R o a d v il le c h ild re n were h e ld o n laps a n d read to, ta lk e d to, a n d
otherw ise m a d e as m u c h th e c e n te r o f a t t e n t io n as G a t e w a y babies. B u t
th e in te ra c tio n s differed, H e a t h foun d. T a k e b e d tim e stories, for e x a m
ple. In m id d le-class G a tew ay , the m o th e r or fath e r e n c o u ra g e d th e c h il
d re n to ask q u estio n s a n d talk a b o u t w h a t th e stories m e a n t, p o in tin g
a t item s o n th e p a g e a n d ask in g w h a t they were. T h e m id d le-class p a r
e n ts p raised righ t answ ers a n d e x p la in e d w h a t was w ro n g w ith w ron g
o n e s .8 It is n o g reat s tretc h to argue, as R o b e r t S te r n b e r g a n d o th e rs do,
t h a t this i n te ra c tio n a m o u n ts to e x c e ll e n t tra in in g for in te llig e n c e tests.
Low er-class R o a d v il le p a re n ts d id n o t d o n early as m u c h o f t h a t k in d o f
e x p la in in g a n d ask in g .9 W h e n th e c h ild re n were learn in g to d o new
tasks, th e R o a d v il le p a re n ts did n o t e x p la in th e h o w o f th in g s th e way
th e G a t e w a y p a re n ts did. Instead, th e R o a d v il le p a re n ts were m o re
likely to issue d irectives ( D o n t twist the c o o k ie c u tter ) a n d hardly
ev er g a v e reaso n s for th eir in stru c tio n s ( If you twist th e cutter, the
c o o k ie s will be rough o n the e d g e ) . 10
Parenting 207
W h e n they g o t to sc h o o l, th e R o a d v il le an d G a t e w a y c h ild re n con-

tin u e d to differ. T h e w ork ing-class R o a d v il le c h ild re n p erfo rm ed well
in th e early tasks o f e a c h o f the first three grades. T h e y k n e w the a l
p h a b e t w h e n they w e n t to k in d e rg arten ; they k n e w h o w to sit still in
class a n d c o u ld p erform well in th e re a d in g exercises t h a t a sk e d th e m
to identify sp ecific p o rtio n s o f w ords or to lin k two item s o n th e sam e
p a g e o f th e bo ok. B u t if the te a c h e r asked, W h a t did you like a b o u t the
story? or W h a t w ould y ou h a v e d o n e if you h a d b e e n th e c h ild in th a t
story? th e R o a d v ille c h ild re n were likely to say I d o n t k n o w or shrug
their shoulders, w hile th e m id d le-class G a t e w a y c h ild re n w ould m o re
o fte n re sp o n d easily a n d im ag in ativ e ly .11
H e a t h s c o n c lu sio n s d raw n from h er a n t h r o p o lo g ic a l o b se rv a tio n s are
bu ttressed by th e q u a n tita tiv e w ork t h a t h a s b e e n d o n e to d ate. A review
o f the t e c h n ic a l literature in th e m id - 1 9 8 0 s p u t it bluntly: It is a n e m p ir
ical fac t t h a t c h ild ren from relatively h ig h e r S E S fam ilies receive a n in tel
le ctu ally m o re a d v a n ta g e o u s h o m e e n v ir o n m e n t . T h i s fin d in g h o ld s for
white, blac k , a n d H is p a n i c child ren, for c h ild re n w ith in lower- an d
m i d d l e - S E S fam ilies, as well as for c h ild ren b o m p reterm an d full-term . 12
S O C IA L C L A S S A N D M A L P A R E N T IN G
T o this p o in t, we h a v e b e e n ta lk in g a b o u t p a r e n tin g w ith in th e n o rm a l

ran ge. N o w we turn to c h ild n e g le c t a n d c h ild abuse, in creasin gly la
be le d m a lp a r e n tin g in th e te c h n i c a l literature.
A b u s e a n d n e g le c t are d istinct. T h e p hy sic al b a tte rin g a n d o th e r
form s o f e x tre m e p h y sic al a n d e m o t io n a l p u n is h m e n t t h a t c o n stitu te
c h ild abuse get m o st o f th e publicity, b u t ch ild n e g le c t is far m o re c o m
m o n , by ratios ra n g in g from th ree to o n e to te n to on e, d e p e n d i n g o n
th e study.13 A m o n g the d istin c tio n s t h a t th e exp erts draw b e tw e e n ch ild
abuse a n d n e g le c t are these:
A b u s e is a n a c t o f c o m m issio n , w h ile n e g le c t is m o re c o m m o n ly
a n a c t o f o m ission .
A b u s e is typically e p iso d ic a n d o f sh o rt d uration ; n e g le c t is c h ro n ic
a n d c o n tin u a l.
A b u s e typically arises from im p u lsiv e outbursts o f agg ression a n d
anger; n e g le c t arises fro m in difference, in a tte n tiv e n e ss, or b e in g
ov e rw h e lm e d by p a r e n t h o o d .1141
C o m m o n l y , neglect is as sim ple as failure to provide a c h ild with a d

eq uate foo d, c lo th in g , shelter, or hygiene. But it c a n also m e a n leavin g
d an gero u s m aterials w ith in reach, n o t keeping the child away from an
op en w indow, or le av in g tod d lers a lon e for hours at a tim e. It m e a n s not
taking the child to a d o c to r w hen he is sick or n o t giv in g him the m e d
icine the d o c to r prescribed. N e g le c t c an also m e an m ore subtle d e p r i
vations: h a b itu a lly leav in g babies in cribs for long periods, nev er talking
to in fants a n d toddlers e x c e p t to scold or d em a n d , n o sm iles, no b e d
time stories. A t its m ost serious, neglect b ec o m es a b a n d o n m e n t.
A r e ab u s in g parents also neglectful? A re neglectful p aren ts also a b u
sive? D ifferen t studies h a v e prod uced different answers. C h i l d abuse in
som e bizarre forms has n o th in g to do with an y th in g e x c e p t a profoun dly
deranged parent. S u c h cases crop up unpredictably, in d e p e n d e n t ot d e
m og rap h ic and so c io e c o n o m i c variab les.11
O n c e we m o v e away from these exc ep tio n al cases, however, abuse
and n e g le c t seem to be m ore alike than different in their o r ig in s .u' T h e
theories e x p la in i n g th em are c o m p le x , involving stress, social isolation,
p ersonality characteristics, co m m u n ity characteristics, and tra n sm is
sion o f m a lp a r e n tin g from o n e generation to the n e x t . 1' B u t one c o n
c o m ita n t o f m alp aren tin g is n o t in m uch dispute: M a lp a r e n tin g of either
sort is h eav ily c o n c e n tr a te d in the lower s o c io e c o n o m ic classes. Indeed,
the link is such that, as D o u g las B esharov has p ointed out, b eh avio rs
that are so m e tim e s classified as form s of n eg lec t letting a child skip
school, for e x a m p le are not considered neglectful in som e p oor c o m
m unities but part of the n o rm al pattern of up b rin g in g.IS W h a t would be
consid ered just a n o v eren th u siastic spanking in o n e n e ig h b o rh o o d
m ight be called abuse in another.
W e realize th a t o n ce ag a in we are c o n trad ic tin g w hat every one
knows, w h ic h is that ch ild abuse and neglect afflict all c o m m u n itie s,
regardless o f race, religion, or e c o n o m ic status, to pick on e form u latio n
of this c o m m o n b e lief.19 A n d in a narrow technical sense, such s t a t e
m ents are correct, insofar as neglect and abuse are found at every social
and e c o n o m i c level, as is every other h u m a n behavior. It is also correct
that only a sm all m inority o f parents a m o n g the poor a n d d isa d v a n ta g e d
neglect or abuse their ch ild ren . But the way such state m e n ts are usually
treated in the m edia, by politician s, and by child a d v o ca c y groups is to
imply that child n e g le c t and abuse are spread evenly across social classes,
as if c h ild re n h a v e ab ou t an equal c h a n c e of being abused or n eglected
w hether they c o m e from a rich h om e or a poor on e, w h eth er the m o th er
Parenting 209
is a colleg e g ra d u a te or a h igh sc h o o l d ro p o u t. A n d yet from the earli-

est studies to the present, m a lp a r e n t in g h as heen strongly a s s o c i a t e d
with s o c i o e c o n o m i c class.
T h e p e o p le w ho argue otherw ise d o n o t offer d ata to m ak e their c a s e .
Instead, they argue th at child n e g le c t a n d ahuse are reported w h e n it
h a p p e n s to p o o r child ren but no t rich o n e s . A ffluen t fam ilies are b e -
lieved to e s c a p e th e reporting n et (by u sin g private physicians, for e x
am ple, who are less likely to report a h u se ). S o c ia l service a g e n c ie s a r e
said to be re lu c ta n t to intervene in afflu e n t fam ilies.20 P oor p e o p le a r e
likely to be lab eled d ev ian t for b e h a v io rs th at would go u n n o ted or un -
rem arked in richer n e ig h b o rh o o d s.21 P e o p l e are likely to think the w o rst
of socially u n a t tr a c tiv e p eop le and give socially attractiv e p eo p le t h e
benefit of th e d o u b t.22
S tu d ie s sp re a d ov er the last twenty y e a rs h a v e analyzed rep orting b ia s
in a variety of ways, in clu d in g surveys to identify abuse that goes u n re -
ported through official ch an n els. T h e results are consistent: T h e s o
c io e c o n o m ic link with m a lt r e a tm e n t is a u t h e n t i c . 21 Probably the link is
stro nger for n e g le c t than for a b u s e .24 Rut sp e c ify in g exactly how stro n g ly
s o c i o e c o n o m i c status an d child m a lt r e a tm e n t are linked is difficult be-
cause of the g en u in e sh o rtc o m in g s o f o fficial reports a n d b e c au se so
m any d ifferen t kin d s o f ahuse and n e g l e c t are in volved. T h e fo llo w in g
n um bers giv e a sense of the situatio n:
In an early n a t io n a l study (u sin g d a t a for 1967) 60 percen t o f t h e

fa m ilie s in volved in abuse in c i d e n t s had been on welfare d u r in g
o r prior to th e study year.25
In d a ta on 2 0 ,0 0 0 v a lidated reports o f child abuse an d n eg lec t c o l
lected by the A m e r i c a n H u m a n e A s s o c i a t i o n for 1976, h a lf of t h e
rep orted fam ilies were below the p o v e r t y line and m o st o f the re st
were c o n c e n tr a te d just a b o v e it.'6
In a 1984 study o f child m a lt r e a t m e n t in El Paso, T e x a s, 8 7
p e rc e n t o f the alleged p e rp e tra to rs were in fam ilies w ith i n
c o m e s u nd er $ 1 8 ,0 0 0 , roughly t h e b o tto m third of i n c o m e .
S e v e n t y - t h r e e p ercen t o f th e alle g e d fem ale perpetrators w ere
u n m a rrie d .27
In the federally sp onso red N a t i o n a l In c id en c e S tu d y in 1 9 7 9 ,
w h ich o b ta in e d in form ation on u n re p o rt e d as well as r e p o r t e d
cases, th e fam ilies o f 43 p e rc e n t o f the v ictim s o f child a b u s e o r
n e g le c t had an in co m e under $ 7 , 0 0 0 , c o m p a re d to 17 p e r c e n t o f
O th er Precursors of M altreatm ent
Premature births, Low b irth weight, and illegitim acy also have Links w ith
m altreatm ent. Studies in Am erica and Britain have found rates of low birth
weight am ong abused children running at rhree to four times the national
a v e ra g e .P r e m a tu r ity has been found to be similarly disproportionate
am o ng abused c h ild re n .0 T he proportion of neglected children who are il
legitim ate has run far above national averages in studies from the early
1960s onward. M ore th a n a quarter of the neglected children in the mid-
1960s were illegitim ate, for example almost four times the natio nal pro
p o rtio n .11 In a British sample, 36 percent o f rhe neglected children were
illegitim ate compared to 6 percent in the control group."
all A m e r i c a n c h ild ren . O n ly 6 percent of the abusive or n e g l e c t

ful fam ilies h ad in c o m e s of $ 2 5 ,0 0 0 or more.
T h e 1986 r e p lic a tio n o f the N a tio n a l Incidence S tu d y found that
the rate o f ab u se a n d neglect am o n g fam ilies with in co m e s under
$ 1 5 , 0 0 0 was five tim e s that o f fam ilies with in c o m e s a b o v e
$ 1 5 ,0 0 0 . O n ly 6 p e rc e n t of the families in volved in n e g le c t or
abuse h ad in c o m e s a b o v e the m e d ia n for all A m e r ic a n families.
G i v e n the o n e -sid e d n ature o f the evidence, why h as rhe m yth of

c la ssle ssn e ss, in L eroy P e l t o n s phrase, b e e n so ten aciou s? F e lto n h i m
s e lf b la m e d social s erv ic e professionals and politicians, arg uin g that b o th
of these pow erful gro u p s h a v e a vested interest in a m e d ic a l m od el of
c h ild abuse, in w h ich c h il d abuse falls on its victim s at ran d o m , like the
flu.3' P elton d o e s n o t m e n t io n ano th er reason that seem s plau sible to
us: C h il d abuse a n d n e g le c t are held in intense d istaste by m ost A m e r
ic a n s, w ho feel g reat h ostility toward parents w ho harm their children.
P e o p le w h o write a b o u t m alp aren tin g do not w ant to e n c o u ra g e this
h ostility to spill o v e r in to hostility toward the p oor a n d d isa d v a n ta g e d .
W h a t e v e r th e reaso n s, the m yth of cla sslessness is aliv e a n d well. It
is a safe bet that at the n e x t S e n a t e hearing on a child n e g le c t bill, w it
n e sse s a n d se n a to r s alik e will agree that neglect an d abuse are scattered
th r o u g h o u t society, a n d th e n e x t feature story o n child n eg lect you see
o n the e v e n in g new s will report, as scientific fact, that ch ild neg lec t is
n o t a sp e c ia l p r o b le m o f th e poor.
Parenting 211
P A R E N T A L IQ A N D P A R E N T I N G
In all of th e se studies o f so c io e c o n o m i c s t a t u s a n d p arenting, t h e o b v i

ous but usually ign ored possibility h a s b e e n t h a t the p a re n ts c o g n i t i v e
ability, no t their status, was an im p o r t a n t s o u r c e o f the d ifferen ces in
p a re n tin g styles an d also an im p o rta n t s o u r c e ot the re la tio n sh ip b e-
tween m a lp a r e n tin g and c h ild re n s IQ s. I n d e e d , e v e n w ithout c o n d u c t -
in g any a d d itio n a l studies, so m e sort of ro le for co gn itiv e ability m u s t
be p resu p po sed. If co g n itiv e ability is a c a u s e o f s o c io e c o n o m ic s t a t u s
(yes) a n d if so c io e c o n o m i c status is r e la te d to p a r e n tin g style (yes), t h e n
c o g n itiv e ability m ust h av e at least s o m e in d i r e c t role in p a r e n tin g style.
T h e sam e c a u sa l c h a in app lies to c h ild m a lt r e a t m e n t .
D irect e v i d e n c e for a link with IQ is sp a r s e . E v e n the e d u c a tio n a l at-
ta in m e n t of th e ab usin g parents is o fte n u n r e p o r t e d . But a searc h o f t h e
literature t h ro u g h the early 1990s u n c o v e r e d a n u m b e r of frag m e n ts that:
p o in t to a p o te n t ia lly im p orta n t role for c o g n i t i v e ability, if we b e a r in
m ind th a t c o g n i t iv e ability is a stronger p r e d i c t o r o f school d ro p o u t t h a n
is s o c i o e c o n o m i c status ( C h a p t e r 6):
In G i l s n a t io n a l study o f child a b u s e reports, more than 65 p e r

c e n t of the m oth ers a n d 56 p e r c e n t ot th e fathers had n o t c o m
pleted h ig h s c h o o l .141
A study o f 4 8 0 infants ot w om en r e g i s t e r in g for prenatal care at a n
urban h o sp ita l for in digen t p e r so n s a n d th eir children fo u n d t h a t
the less e d u c ated m oth ers e v e n w i t h i n th is d isa d v an taged p o p u l a
tion were m ore likely to neg lec t t h e i r b a b ie s.
T h r e e stu d ies o f child m a lt r e a t m e n t in a cen tral Virginia city o f
8 0 , 0 0 0 p e o p le found th at n e g l e c t i n g fam ilies had an a v e r a g e
e igh th -g ra d e e d u c atio n , and a l m o s t three-qu arters of t h e m h a d
b een p la c e d in classes for the m e n t a l l y reta rd ed during their s c h o o l
years. In c o n tr a st with the n e g l e c t i n g fam ilies, the ab u s in g f a m i
lies ten d e d to be literate, h igh s c h o o l gra d u a te s, and o f n o r m a l i n
t e l li g e n c e . 6
A study o f fifty-eight p resc h o o l c h i l d r e n o f unspecif ied race in t h e
C l e v e l a n d area with histories of f a i lu r e to thrive found t h a t t h e i r
m o t h e r s IQ s average was 81 ? 1 N o c o m p a r i s o n group was a v a i l a b l e
in this study, but a m e a n o f 81 i n d i c a t e s c o g n itiv e f u n c t i o n i n g a t
a p p r o x im a t e ly the 10th centile.
212 CognitiVe Classes and Social Behavior
A study of twenty ab usive or neglectful m others and ten c o m p a r

ison m others from inner-city Rochester, N e w York, found that
m altreatin g an d n o n m a ltre a tin g m others differed sig n ifican tly in
their ju d g m e n t about child behavior and in their p ro b lem -so lv in g
ab ilities.1t!
A clinical psychological study ot ten parents w ho battered their
children severely (six of the children died) classified five as h a v
ing a high-grade m e n ia l deficiency (m entally reta rd ed ), o n e as
dull, a n d ano ther as b elow average. T h e rem ain ing three were c l a s
sified as above a v e r a g e .
A q u an titativ e study of 113 tw o-parent fam ilies in the N e t h e r
lands found that parents with a high level o f reaso n in g c o m p l e x
ity (a measure o f c o g n itiv e ability) responded to their child ren
more flexibly an d sensitively, while those with low levels o f rea
son in g com plexity were more authoritarian an d rigid, in d e p e n
dent of o c c u p atio n an d education.'10
T h e m ost ex ten siv e c lin ical studies o f neglectful m oth ers hav e been
c o n d u c ted by N o rm a n Polansky, whose many years ot research began
w ith a sam p le drawn from rural A p p a la c h ia , subseq uently replicated
w ith an urban P hiladelp hia sample. H e described the typical neglectful
m o th er as follows:
S h e is of limited in telligence ( IQ below 7 0 ), has tailed to ac h iev e

more than an eighth-grad e ed u c atio n , a n d has never h eld . . . e m p l o y
ment. . . . S h e has at best a vague, or extrem ely lim ited, idea o f what
her children need em otio n ally and physically. S h e se ld o m is able to
see things from the p o in t o fv ie w o f others and c a n n o t take their need s
into co n sid eratio n w h e n responding to a conflict they e x p e r ie n c e .41
T h e specific IQ figure Polansky m en tio n s corresponds to the upper edge

o f retardation, an d his d esc rip tio n of her personality in v o k es further
links b etw een neglect a n d intelligence.
A n o th e r body of literature links neglectful and ab usiv e p a re n ts to
personality c h aracteristics that h av e clear links to low c o g n itiv e a b il
ity.14'11T h e m o st e x te n siv e ev id en c e describes the im pulsiveness, in c o n
sistency, a n d confusion th at mark the parenting style ot m any ab usive
p aren ts.4 T h e abusive p a re n ts may or m ay not p u n ish their ch ild ren
m o re often or severely in the ordinary course of e v e n ts th an other p a r
e n ts (studies differ on this p o in t),44 but the abuse charac teristica lly
Parenting 213
c om es u npredictably, in episodic hursts. A b u s i v e parents m ay p u n ish a

giv en b e h a v io r (in one oc c asio n , ignore it on an o th er, and e n c o u ra g e it
on a third. T h e in co n sisten c y c an reac h m ystifying p roportions; o n e
study ot p aren t-c h ild in teractions fou n d t h a t c h ild re n in ab usin g f a m i
lies had a b o u t the sam e c h a n c e of o b t a i n i n g p o sitiv e rein fo rc em en t for
aggressive b e h a v io r s as for pro-social b e h a v i o r s / 1
T h e ob served in co n sisten c y of a b u s in g p a r e n ts was q uantified in o n e
ot the early a n d classic studies o f ch ild a b u s e by L e o n t i n e Young, W ednes-
day's Children. By her calculation s, in c o n s is te n c y was the rule in all ot
the severe a b u s e " fam ilies in her sa m p le , in 91 p e rc e n t o f the m o d e r
a te a b u s e fam ilies, 97 percent o f th e se v e r e n e g l e c t families, and 88
p erc en t of the m od erate n e g le c t fa m il ie s .H In o n e o f the m ost e x t e n
sive literature reviews of the beh a v io ral an d p erson ality d im e n s io n s of
abusive p aren ts (as of 1985), the a u th o r c o n c l u d e d that th e m ain p r o b
lem was no t that abusive parents were a t t a c h e d to p u n ish m e n t as su c h
but that they were simply in co m p e te n t as parents.'1'
O n e m igh t think that researchers s e e i n g th ese m alp aren tin g p a tte rn s
would natu rally be inspired to look at th e p a r e n t s in telligence as a p r e
dictor. A nil yet in that sam e literature review , e x a m in i n g every rigorous
A m e r ic a n study o n the subject, the worel intelligence (or any sy n o n y m
for it) does n o t oc c u r until the n e x t- to - la st p a g e of the artic le .14''1 T h e
word finally m a k e s its a p p earan ce as the litera tu re review nears its en d
an d the a u th o r turns to his r e c o m m e n d a t io n s for future research. H e
notes that in an o n g o in g British p r o s p e c tiv e stud y of p arenting, m o t h
ers in their E x c e lle n t C a r e group, for e x a m p l e , were found to be of high e r
in telligen ce . . . th an parents in their I n a d e q u a te Cart? gro u p , an d th e n
d escribes several ways in w hich the stud y found that m aternal in te lli
g en c e se e m e d to c o m p e n sa te for o th e r d e p r iv a t io n s in rhe c h ild s life.|,|;|
W ith such o b vio u s signals about such tragic, p roblem s as child n e g le c t
an d abuse, p e r h a p s an editorial c o m m e n t is ap p ro p ria te: T h e relu c tan c e
ot scholars a n d policym akers alike to lo o k at th e role of low in tellig en c e
in m a lp a r e n tin g m ay properly he c a lle d s c a n d a lo u s .
M A T E R N A L IQ A N D T H E W E L L - B E I N G O F I N F A N T S
C o m b i n e d w ith th e literature, the N L S Y lends further in sight in to go o d

and bad p aren tin g . W e begin with in fo r m a ti o n o n the ways in w h ich
w o m en of va ry in g co g n itiv e ability care fo r th eir c h ild ren an d th e n ru m
to the o u tc o m e s for the child ren t h e m s e lv e s .
2 14 Cognitive Classes and Social Behavior
P ren atal C a r e
In m o st o f the ways that are easily m easurable, m ost white w o m e n in

the d ifferen t c ogn itiv e classes behaved similarly during pregnancy. A l
m o st e v ery o n e got p ren ata l care, an d sim ilar p ro p o rtio n s in all c o g n i
tive c la sses began g etting it in the early m onths. If we take the N L S Y
m o th e r s self-descriptions at face value, alcohol c o n su m p tio n during
p re g n a n c y was ab ou t the sam e across the cog n itiv e c la sse s.1,01 T h e risk
of m iscarriage or a stillbirth was also spread more or less equally across
c o g n itiv e classes.
S m o k i n g was the o n e big and m edically im portant d ifferen ce related
to m a te r n a l intelligence: T h e sm arter the w om en, the less they sm ok ed
w hile they were pregnant. Fifty-one percen t o f the w o m e n in the b o t
tom two c o g n itiv e classes sm oked, an d 19 percent o f th e m ad m itte d to
s m o k in g m o re than a p a c k a day. In the top two co g n itiv e classes, only
16 p e rc e n t o f the white w o m en in the N L S Y sm oked at all, and on ly 4
p e rc e n t a d m itte d to sm o k in g more th an a pack a day. In C l a s s 1, n o on e
sm o k ed . S m a r t e r p regn an t w om en sm oked less even after c o n tr o llin g
for their so c io e c o n o m ic backgrounds. H ig h er levels o f ed u c a tio n , in d e
p e n d e n t o f in telligence, also deterred p regn an t w om en from s m o k in g .'111
L o w Birth Weight
W e focus here on an in d ic ator that is kn o w n to hav e im p o rta n t im p li

c a tio n s for the subseq u en t health, c o g n itiv e ability, a n d e m o tio n a l d e
v e lo p m e n t of the child an d is also affected to som e d egree by how well
w o m e n h a v e cared for th em selv es during pregnancy: low birth w e ig h t.1'
L ow birth weight is often caused by behavio rs during pregnancy, such
as sm o k in g , drug or a lc o h o l abuse, or living exclusively on ju n k food,
th a t are se ld o m caused by pure ign oran ce these days. T h e p reg n an t
w o m a n w h o nev er registers the sim ple an d ubiquitous lessons a b o u t t a k
ing care o f h erself and h er baby, fails to rem em ber them , or fails to act
o n th em c ould be willfully irresponsible or in the grip o f an irresistible
a d d ic ti o n to drugs or ju n k food, but slow c o m p reh en sio n , a short time
horizon, a n d difficulty in c o n n e c tin g cau se and effect are at least as p la u
sible an e x p la n a tio n , and all o f th ese b eto k en low IQ.
A low -birth-w eight baby is defined in these analyses as an in fant
w e ig h in g less th an 5.5 p o u n d s at birth, ex clud in g p rem a tu re b abies
w h o se w eigh t was ap p rop riate for their gestation a l a g e .151 T h e e x p e r i
e n c e o f th e N L S Y m o th ers is show n in the table below. T h e r e d oes not
Parenting 21 5
L o w B irth W eigh t A m o n g W h ite B a b ie s

In cide n ce per
C o g n itiv e C la s s 1 , 0 0 0 Birth s
1 Very bright 50
II Bright 16
III N orm al 32
i v null 72
V Very dull 57
P o pulatio n average 62
app ear to be m u c h of a relationship b e t w e e n in telligence an d low birth

weight; n o te the h igh rate for b a bies of m o th e r s in C lass I (which is d i s
cussed in the a c c o m p a n y in g bo x). B u t rhe tab le obscures a strong o v e r
all re la tio n sh ip betw een IQ a n d low b ir th w eight that em erges in th e
regression an alysis sh ow n in th e fo llo w in g figure.
A w h ite m o th e rs IQ h a s a s ig n ific a n t role in

d e te rm in in g w h eth er h e r b a b y is u n d e rw e ig h t
w h ile h e r so c io e c o n o m ic b a c k g r o u n d d o e s n ot
P r o b a b ility o f b ein g a l o w - b irt h - w e ig h t b a b y

8%-
A s the m o th er's IQ
7 % -
6% -
5% -
4 % -
3 % -
^C/c ~ As the m oth er's

so c io e co n o m ic b a ckg n
g o es fro m low to high
0 % |---------------------- 1--------------
Very low Very high
(-2 S D s) (+2 S D s)
Note: For computing the plot, age and either S E S (tor the black curve) or IQ (for the gray
A low I Q is a m ajor risk factor, whereas the m o th e r s s o c io e c o n o m ic

b a c k g r o u n d is irrelevant. A m o th er at the 2d centile o f IQ h a d a 7 p e r
c e n t c h a n c e o f giving birth to a low-birth-weight hahy, while a m o th er
a t the 9 8 th p ercentile had less th an a 2 percent c h an c e.
Adding Poverty. Poverty is an ob vio us p o ten tial factor w h en trying to
e x p la in low birth weight. O v e ra ll, p oor white m others (p o o r in the year
before b irth ) h ad 61 low -birth-w eight babies per 1,000, while oth e r
w h ite m o th e rs had 36. But p o v e rty s in dep en d en t role was sm all an d s t a
tistically in significan t, o n c e the o th e r stan dard variables were taken into
a c c o u n t. M e an w h ile, the in d e p e n d e n t role of IQ rem ain ed as large, and
th a t of so c io e c o n o m ic back gro u n d as small, ev en after the effects of
p o v e rty w ere extracted.
C a n M o thers B e T o o Sm a rt for T h e i r O w n G o o d ?
T he case o f low birrh weight is the first example of others you w ill see in
w h ic h the children of white wom en in Class 1have anomalously bad scores.
T he obvious, but perhaps too obvious, culprit is sample size. T he percent
age of low-birth-weight babies for Class I mothers, calculated using sam
ple weights, was produced by just two low-birth-weight babies out ot
seventy-four births.141 The sample sizes for white Class I mothers in the
other analyses that produce anom alous results are also small, somerimes
under fifty and always under one hundred, while the sample sizes for the
m id dle cognitive classes number several hundred or sometimes thousands.
O n the other hand, perhaps the children o f mothers at the very top ot
the cognitive distribution do in tact have different tendencies than the rest
of the range. T he possibility is sufficiently intriguing that we report the
anom alous data despite the small sample sizes, and hope that others will
explore where we cannot. In the logistic regression analyses, where each
case is treated as an indiv idu al u n it (not grouped in to cognitive classes),
these problems of sample size do not arise.
A dding m others age at the time of birth. It is often th o u g h t that very-

y o u n g m o th e rs are vu ln era b le to h av in g low-birth-weight babies, no
m a t t e r how good the p ren ata l care may b e . T h is was n o t true in the
N L S Y d a ta for white w o m en , however, where the m others o f low-birth
w e ig h t b a bies and other m o th e rs had the sam e m e a n (24-2 years).
Parenting 217
In sum , neirher the m o th e rs age in the N L S Y cohort, nor age at b ir th

of the child , n o r poverty status, nor s o c i o e c o n o m i c background h ad a n y
ap p rec iab le re la tio n sh ip to her c h a n c e s o f g iv in g birth to a low-birth-
weight baby after her c o g n itiv e ability h ad been taken into a c c o u n t .
Adding education. A m o n g h igh sc h o o l g rad u ates (n o more, n o less)
in the N L S Y , a p lot o f the results of th e sta n d a rd analysis looks v isu ally
id entical to th e o n e presented for th e e n tire sam ple, but the sa m p le o f
low -birth-w eight babies was so sm all th at the results d o n o t reac h s t a
tistical sig n ifica n c e . A m o n g the c o lleg e g rad u ates, low-birth-weight ha-
hies were so rare (on ly six out o f 277 births to the white college s a m p l e )
that a m u ltiv a ria te analysis p ro d u c e d n o in terpretable results. W e d o
n o t know w h e th e r it is the e d u c a tio n itself, or the self-selection t h a t
goes into h a v in g m ore e d u c atio n , t h a t is responsible for their low i n c i
d e n c e o f u n d erw eig h t babies.
Infant M ortality
T h o u g h we h a v e n o t been able to find an y studies of cognitive ab ility

a n d in fant mortality, it is nor hard to th in k o f a rationale linking th e m .
M a n y th in g s c a n g o wrong w ith a baby, a n d parents hav e to e x e rc ise
bo th w atc h fu ln ess and ju d gm e n t. It tak es m ore than love to c h ild p r o o f
a hou se effectively; it also takes k n o w le d g e and foresight. It takes i n t e l
ligence to d e c id e th a t an apparently ord in ary bout of diarrhea has g o n e
on long e n o u g h to m ake d eh y d ratio n a d an g er; and so on. N o r is s i m
ple k n o w led g e en o u gh . A s p e d iatric ian s c a n attest, it may not be e n o u g h
to tell new p a r e n ts that infants o fte n sp ike a high fever, that s u c h
e p iso des d o n o t necessarily require, a trip t o the hospital, but that th ey
require careful a tt e n tio n lest such a ro u tin e fever becom e life t h r e a t e n
ing. G o o d p a re n ta l ju d gm en t re m a in s vital. For that matter, the p r o b
lem facing p e d ia tric ia n s d e a lin g with c h ild re n of less c o m p eten t p a r e n t s
is ev en m ore ba sic th an g ettin g th em to apply good judgm ent: It is to
g et such m o th e rs to ad m in ister the m e d i c a t io n that the d octor h a s p r o
vided.
T h is r a tio n a le is co n sisten t with the link that has been found b e
tw een e d u c a t io n a n d infant m ortality. In a study o f all births registered
in C a lifo rn ia in 1978, for e x a m p le , in fant d eath s per 1,000 to w h i te
w om en n u m b e re d 12.2 for w o m en w ith less than twelve years o f e d u
c a t i o n , 8.3 for those with tw elve years, and 6.3 for w om en w ith thirteen
o r m o re years o f ed u c atio n , an d the role o f ed ucatio n re m ain e d sig n ifi
c a n t after con trollin g for birth order, age o f the mother, an d marital
status.1,561
W e h a v e been unable to identify any study that uses tested IQ as an
e x p la n a t o r y factor, and, with such a rare ev en t as infant mortality, even
th e N L S Y c a n n o t answer our q uestions satisfactorily. T h e results c er
tain ly suggest that the q u estio n s are worth taking seriously. A s ot the
1 9 9 0 survey, the N L S Y recorded forty-two d eath s am o n g ch ild ren born
to w h ite w o m e n with k n o w n IQ. S o m e o f these d eaths were p resum ably
c a u se d by severe m edical p roblem s at birth and occurred in a hosp ital
w h ere the m o th e r s beh a v io r was irrelevant.171 For infants w h o died b e
tw e e n the sec o n d and twelfth m o n th (the closest we c a n c o m e to d e f in
in g after th e baby had left the h o sp ital ), the m others ot the surviving
c h ild re n tested six points h igh e r in IQ than the m oth ers of the d ec eased
babies. ( T h e difference for m others of children who died in the first
m o n t h was n o t quite three points and for the m others ot c h ild ren who
were o ld e r th an 1 year old w hen they died, virtually zero.) T h e sam ples
h ere are t o o small to analyze in c o n ju n c tio n with so c io e c o n o m ic status
an d o th e r variables.
P O V E R T Y T H R O U G H O U T EARLY C H ILD H O O D
In C h a p t e r 5, we d escribed how the high-visihility policy issue of c h il

d ren in poverty can be b etter understood w hen the m o th e r s IQ is
brought in t o the picture. H ere, we focus m ore specifically on the poverty
in the early years o f a c h il d s life, when it appears to be an especially im
p o r t a n t fac to r ( in d ep en d en t o f other variables) in affecting the c h il d s
d e v e l o p m e n t . ^ T h e variable is m uch m ore stringent th an sim ply e x p e
rie n c in g p overty at som e p o in t in ch ild h o o d . Rather, we ask about the
m o th e rs of child ren w ho lived under the poverty line th ro u gh o u t their
first th ree years o f life, c o m p a rin g them with m others who were not in
p o v e rty at any time during the c h ild s first three years. T h e stan dard
an a ly sis is show n in the figure below. T h e re are few oth e r analyses in
Part II th a t show such a steep effect for bo th in telligence and S E S . If
th e m o th e r has ev en an a v erag e intelligence and average so c io e c o n o m i c
b a c k g ro u n d , the odds of a white c h ild s living in poverty for his or her
first th ree years were u nd er 5 percent. If either of those c o n d itio n s fell
b e lo w av erag e, the odds increased steeply.
Parenting 219
A w h ite m o t h e r s IQ an d so c io e c o n o m ic b a c k g ro u n d eac h h as
a large in d e p e n d e n t e ffe c t on h e r c h il d s c h a n c e s of sp e n d in g
th e first th re e y e a rs o f life in p o v erty
P r o b a b ility that a ch ild will liv e in p o v e r t y

th ro u gh ou t the first three y e a r s o f l if e
40% -
Verv low Very high

(- 2 'S I)s) (+2 SD s)
Note: f or compu tin g the plot, ;uul either (lor the black curve) or 1 0 (tor the jjray
curve) were set at their mean values
T h e Rule of P reexisting Poverty
W h e n we ask w h eth er the m o th e r was in poverty in the year prior to

birth, it turns out that a substan tial a m o u n t of the effect we attribute to
s o c i o e c o n o m i c back g ro u n d in the figure really reflects w hether the
m o th e r was alread y in poverty w h e n the c h i l d was born. If you w ant to
know w h eth er a child will sp end his first th re e years in poverty, the s in
gle m ost useful p iec e o f in form ation is w h e t h e r the m o th er was already
living u nd er rhe poverty line w hen he w a s born. N ev erth eless, ad d in g
poverty to rhe e q u a tio n does not d i m i n i s h a large in d ep en d en t role for
c o g n itiv e ability. A child horn to a w h ite m o th e r who was living under
rhe poverty lin e but was of av erag e in te ll i g e n c e had alm o st a 49 p e rc e n t
c h a n c e o f liv in g his first three years in poverty. T h i s is an extraordinarily
h igh c h a n c e o f living in poverty for A m e r i c a n whites as a whole. But it
the sam e w o m a n were at the 2d c e n tile o f in tellig en c e, the odds rose to
8 9 p ercent; if she were at the 9 8 th c e n tile , they d ro p p ed to 10 p erc en t.19|
T h e c h a n g e s in rhe o d d s were proportionately large for w o m e n who were

no t liv in g in p o v e rty when the child was born.
T he R ole uj E d u catio n
For c h ild re n o f w o m e n with a high sch ool d ip lom a ( n o more, no less),

the re la tio n sh ip s of IQ and so c io e c o n o m ic background to the odds that
a child would live in poverty are the sam e as shown in the figure a b o v e
alm o st equally im p o rta n t, with so c io e c o n o m ic b ackgro un d fractionally
m ore so ex c ep t th at rhe odds are a little lower than for the w hole s a m
ple (th e h igh e st p ercen tag es, for m others two stan dard d e v ia tio n s b e
low the m ean, are in rhe high 20s, instead of the m id -30s). A s this
implies, the h ig h e st in cidence o f c h ild h o o d poverty occurs am o n g
w om en w h o d ro p p ed out o f school. A m o n g the white colleg e sam p le (a
b a c h e l o r s degree, n o more and no less), there was n o th in g to analyze;
only o n e child of such m others had lived his first three years in poverty.
IQ A N D T H E H O M E E N V I R O N M E N T F O R C H I L D
DEVELOPM ENT
In 1986, 1988, an d 1990, the N L S Y c o n d u c te d sp ecial su p plem en tary

surveys of the c h ild re n and m others in the sample. T h e child ren were
g iv en tests of m e n ta l, em o tio n al, and physical d e v e lo p m e n t, to which
we sh all turn presently. T h e m others were q uestioned ab out their c h il
d r e n s d e v e l o p m e n t and their rearing practices. T h e h o m e situ a tio n was
directly observed. T h e survey instruments were based on the so-called
H O M E ( H o m e O b s e r v a t io n for M e asu rem en t of the E n v iro n m e n t)
in d e x .1601
D o z e n s of q u e stio n s and ob servations go into c reatin g the sum m ary
m easures, m an y o f them interesting in them selves. C h ild r e n of rhe
brig h test m o th ers ( w h o also tend to be the best ed ucated and the most
afflu en t) have a big ad v a n ta g e in m any ways, especially o n such b e
h av io rs as read in g to the child. O n oth e r in dicators th at are less c riti
cal in th e m se lv e s, but indirectly suggest how the child is bein g raised,
c h ild re n with sm a rte r m others also do better. For e x a m p le , m o th ers in
rhe top c o g n itiv e classes use physical p u n ish m en t less often (th ou g h
they ag re e in p rin c ip le that physical p u n ish m en t c an be an ap p rop riate
r e sp o n se ) , and the television set is off m ore o f the tim e in the h o m e s of
the top c o g n itiv e classes.
T r e a t in g the H O M E index as a co n tin u o u s scale ru n n in g from very
Parenting 221
h ad to very g o o d h o m e e n v i r o n m e n t s , th e a d v a n t a g e s ot w hite c h i l
dren with sm arter m o th ers w ere clear. T h e a v e r a g e ch ild ot a C l a s s V
w o m an lived in a h om e at th e 3 2 d p e r c e n t i l e cif h o m e e n v i r o n m e n t ,
while the h o m e of the av e rag e c h il d o f a C l a s s 1 w o m a n w as at the 7 6 t h
percentile. T h e g rad atio n s for th e th re e in t e r v e n i n g c la sses were r e g u
lar as welt.1*'11 O v erall, the c o r r e l a t i o n o f th e H O M E in dex w ith IQ
for white m o th e rs was + .2 4 , s t a t is t i c a ll y sig n ific a n t but hardly o v e r
powering.
In trying to identify c h ild re n a t risk, th is w ay of l o o k in g at the r e l a
tion sh ip is n o t necessarily th e m o st r e v e a li n g . W e are w illin g to a s s u m e
that a child grow ing up in a h o m e at th e 9 0 t h c e n tile on the H O M E i n
d ex h as a b ette r" e n v ir o n m e n t t h a n o n e g r o w i n g up at the 50rh. P e r
haps the differen ce betw een a terrific h o m e e n v i r o n m e n t and a m e re ly
av erag e on e help s p roduce c h il d r e n w h o are at th e high en d on v a r io u s
personality and a c h i e v e m e n t m e a su re s. B u t it d o e s no t n ecessarily f o l
low th at the child in the h o m e at t h e 5 0 t h c e n t i l e is th at m uch m o r e at
risk for the worst o u tc o m e s o f m a l p a r e n t i n g t h a n rhe c h ild at rhe 9 0 t h
centile. B o th c o m m o n sense a n d m u c h o f th e sc h o larly work o n c h il d
d e v e l o p m e n t suggest th at c h il d r e n are r e s i li e n t in the fa c e ot m o d e r a t e
d isa d v a n ta g e s an d ob stac les a n d , o n t h e o t h e r h an d , t h a t p a re n ts are
trust rat ingly u n ab le to fin e-tu n e g o o d re su lts for their c h ild ren .
Bur resilience has its limits. C h i l d r e n c o m i n g from t h e least n u r t u r
ing, m ost p u n ish in g e n v ir o n m e n t s are in d e e d at risk. W e will th e re fo re
focus th ro u g h o u t this s e c tio n o n c h i l d r e n w h o are in the b o tto m 10 p e r
cent o n various m easures of th e ir h o m e s . 1""1
W h ich W h ite C h il d r e n G r o w
U p in th e W o r s t H o m e s ?
P ercen tage of
T h e ir C h ild ren G row in g
C ognitive C lass of U p in H o m e s in the B ottom
the M other D e c ile of the H O M E Index
I Very bright 0
11 Bright 2
III N orm al 6
IV D ull 11
V Very dull 24
A ll whites 6
In rhe c a se o f the H O M E index, the p ercentages of w hite ch ild ren o f

m o t h e r s in the different c o g n itiv e classes who are growing up in h o m e s
t h a t scored at the bo tto m are displayed in the table. It was ex trem ely
rare for ch ild ren of w o m en in the top cognitive classes to grow up in
th ese worst h o m e s" a n d quite u n c o m m o n for ch ild ren o f w o m en
th ro u g h o u t the top three-fourths ot rhe IQ distribution. O n ly in the b o t
t o m c o g n i tiv e classes did the proportion of such child ren grow, and then
the p ro p o rtio n s rose rapidly. N early one out of four of the ch ild ren of
the d ullest m others was grow ing up in a h o m e that also ranked in the
b o t t o m d ec ile o n the H O M E in d ex.|b*'
T h e Role o f Socioeconom ic Backg)rm nd
T h e usual assum p tion ab o u t m aternal behavior is that a w o m a n s s o

c i o e c o n o m i c status is crucial that she passes on to her ch ild ren the
ben efits or d isa d v an tag es o f her own family background. T h e figure b e
low sum m arizes the stan dard analysis com parin g S E S a n d IQ.
A w h ite m o th e rs IQ is m ore im p o rta n t th an h er so c io e c o n o m ic

b a c k g ro u n d in p re d ic tin g th e w o rst h om e e n v iro n m e n ts
P r o b a b ility o f b e in g in the bottom d e cile o f the H O M E ind ex

20 % -
0%
V ery low Very high
c - i SD s) ( + 2 sn->)
N ote : For compu tin g the plot, age and cither S E S (tor the black curve) or IQ (tor the gray
curve) were set at their mean values. Additional independent variables were used to control
tor the test year and the age of the children.
Parenting 223
Roth facto rs piay a sign ificant role, but o n c e again it is worse (at least
for the w hite N L S Y p o p u la tio n ) to h a v e a m o t h e r with a low IQ t h a n
one from a low so c io e c o n o m ic b a c k g ro u n d . G i v e n ju st an av erag e I Q
for the m other, e v e n a m oth er at the 2d c e n t i le on so c io e c o n o m ic b a c k -
ground had less th a n a 10 p erc en t c h a n c e o f p ro v id in g o n e o f the w orst
h o m e s for her child ren. Bur e v e n with a v e r a g e so c io e c o n o m ic b a c k -
ground, a m o th e r at the 2d cen tile of in te llig e n c e had alm ost a 17 per-
cent c h a n c e of p rovid in g on e o f these w orst h o m e s.
The Role o f P o ierty an d W elfare
M any of the p ro b le m s ex p erien ced by p oor c h ild ren are usually attrib-
uted in b o th p ublic d ialogu e and ac a d e m ic writings to poverty itself.64
T h e reaso ns for this widely assu m ed link b e tw e e n poverty and d e v e l
o p m en tal p ro b lem s are harder to spell out t h a n you might think. T o re
p eat a p o in t that m ust always he k e p t in m in d when thinkin g a b o u t
poverty: M o st o f the w orld s child ren th r o u g h o u t history h av e grown up
poor, with p o v erty " m e an in g m aterial d e p r iv a t io n far more severe t h a n
the m e a n in g o f below the poverty lin e in to d a y s A m e ric a. M a n y o f
the d isa d v a n ta g e s to d a y s children e x p e r ie n c e are n o t the poverty itself
but the c o n te m p o r a r y correlates of p overty: being without a father, for
e xam p le, or livin g in high-crim e n e ig h b o rh o o d s. Today, high p r o p o r
tions of p o o r c h ild r e n ex p e rie n ce these correlates; fifty years ago, c o m
paratively few p o o r c h ild ren did.
Rut th ere are reaso ns to think that the H O M E index m ight be in f lu
enced by poverty. R e a d in g to ch ild ren is a g o o d th in g to do, for e x a m
ple, and raises the H O M E score, but c h i l d r e n s bo ok s are e x p e n siv e . It:
is easier to hav e books in the house if you c a n afford to buy them t h a n
if you h a v e to trek to the library p erh ap s q u ite far from h o m e t o get
them . S im ila r c o m m e n t s apply to m any of t h e indicators on the H O M E
index th at do n o t require w ealth but c o u ld be affected by very low in
c om e. W e therefore exp lored how the H O M E index was related to the
m o th e rs p o v erty or welfare recipiency in t h e c a le n d a r year before the
H O M E score w as o b ta in e d .16 1
Poverty p ro v ed to be im portant, w ith b e i n g in a state of p o v e r t y
raising the o d d s of b ein g in the worst d e c ile o f the H O M E index from
4 p e rc e n t to 11 percent, giv en a m o th e r o f average IQ an d s o c i o e c o
n o m ic status.|of>l Rut ad d in g poverty to th e e q u a tio n did n o t d im in i s h
the in d e p e n d e n t role o f c o g n itiv e ability. F or e x a m p le , if th e m o t h e r
h a d very low I Q (th e 2d c en tile) and was in poverty, th e od d s o f b ein g

in the worst decile o n the H O M E index jum p ed from 11 p e rc e n t to 26
p ercent. G enerally, ad d in g poverty to the analysis replaced the im p act
o f the m o th e r s so c io e c o n o m ic background, not o f her intelligence.
T h e n we turn to welfare. T h e h yp othesis is that go in g o n welfare sig
nifies p ersonality characteristics other th a n IQ that are likely to m ak e
th e h o m e e n v iro n m e n t d eficien t irresponsibility, im maturity, or lack
o f initiative, for exam p le. T herefore, the worst h o m e s on the H O M E
in d e x will also tend to be welfare hom es. T h is hypothesis to o is borne
o u t by the data: W elfare recipiency was a slightly m ore powerful
p red ictor of being in a worse h o m e " th an poverty but it h ad as little
effect o n the in dep en d en t role o f IQ.
In trying to d ecide a m o n g c o m p e t in g e xp la n ation s, th e sim p lest thing
to d o is to enter both poverty an d welfare in the analysis an d see w hich
wins out. W e summarize the o u tc o m e by first c on sid erin g a c h ild whose
m oth er is o f average intelligence and so c io e c o n o m ic backg ro un d . If his
m oth er is either poor or o n welfare (but not both), the o d d s of h a v in g
a terrible h o m e en v iro n m en t ( b o tto m decile o n the H O M E in d e x ) are
8 or 9 percent. If the m o th er has an IQ o f 70, the o d d s sh oo t up to 18
to 21 percent. If rhe m o th er has very low in telligence, is poor, a n d is
also on welfare, the odds rise further, to 34 percent. A table with som e
of rhe basic p erm u tatio n s is giv en in the n o te .16' 1
Still, m any o f the causal issues rem ain unresolved. T h e task for s c h o l
ars is to specify what it is ab ou t poverty that leads to the o u tc o m e s a s
so c iated with it. W ith rhe d ata at hand, we c an n o t g o m u ch further in
d istin gu ish in g betw een the effects of lack o f m oney an d the effects o f
o th e r things th at being in poverty signifies. In particular, the way that
poverty and welfare interact in p rod u cin g a poor h o m e e n v ir o n m e n t
p rovid es m any hints that need to be followed up.
W h a t can be said u n eq uiv ocally is th at low in co m e as such d o es not
prevent child ren from being raised in a stim ulating, n urturing e n v ir o n
m ent. S u c h is the story o f the regression coefficients, and a c o n c lu sio n
th a t accord s with child rearing th ro ugh o ut history. By the s a m e tok en,
it does n o t take a genius to p rovide a child with a stim u latin g , n u rtu r
in g en v iro n m en t. T h e av erag e differences in e n v iro n m e n t across the
c o g n itiv e classes are large and in m any ways troubling, but, in p e r c e n t
a g e terms, they e xp lain little o f the varian ce. A b u n d a n t e x a m p le s o f e x
c ellen t parents may be foun d through all but the very lowest ran ge o f
c o g n itiv e ability.
Parenting 225
T he Role o f E d u catio n
W e con clude, as usual, by c o n sid e rin g the role o f e d u c a tio n through the
high sc h o o l g r a d u a te an d college gra d u a te sub sa m p les. H o ld in g m ater-
nal age an d th e m o th e rs s o c i o e c o n o m i c b a c k g ro u n d c o n sta n t at th eir
m eans, c o lle g e g raduates tend to d o well, n o m a tte r what their co g n i-
tive ability (w ith in their restricted r a n g e ), e v e n though c og n itiv e a b il
ity retains a statistically sig n ifican t re la tio n sh ip . W ith in the h igh sc h o o l
sam ple, the effects of cognitive ability are p la in ; th e odds of being in the
bo tto m d ecile o n the H O M E index for the ch ild o f a m oth er of av erag e
s o c io e c o n o m ic back gro u n d drop from 15 p e rc e n t for a high school g r a d
uate at th e 2d IQ c en tile to 5 p e rc e n t for a c o m p a ra b le p erson at the
98 th IQ c en tile. A s in the earlier an alyses, the m o st im p ortan t im p ac t
of c o g n itiv e ability within the h igh sc h o o l g ra d u a te s seem s to be at the
low end. S o c i o e c o n o m i c b a ck g ro u n d also c o n t i n u e s to play an im p o r
tant in d e p e n d e n t role, but less than IQ.
DEVELOPM ENTAL OUTCOM ES
T h e N L S Y a lso adm inistered b a tteries o f tests regarding the d e v e l o p

m ental o u t c o m e s for the c h ild ren of N L S Y m o th e rs. We review several
in dicators briefly, th en present a su m m ary in d e x sh o w in g the in terrela
tionships the m o t h e r s c o g n itiv e ability, so c io e c o n o m i c backgro und ,
poverty, and welfare.
Som e M ore C om plications
T he H O M E inventory has two com ponents a C o g n itiv e S tim u latio n

score and an E m otional Support score both adapted to three separate age
groups (under } to 5, and over 5 years of age). W e conducted a variety
ot analyses to explore the subtests roles for different age groups. Briefly,
the m others IQ had the d o m in a n t role in de term in in g the E m otional S u p
port score for children through the age of 5, whereas its role in determ in
ing C o g n itiv e S tim u latio n was roughly coequal with education and
socioeconom ic background the opposite ot w hat one m ight predict. M a
ternal IQ was especially im portant for E m o tio na l Support to the T to 5-
year-old group. It would be w orthw hile for investigators to explore w ith
other data the N L S Y s indications that parental IQ is especially im portant
for the hom e en v iro nm en t from ages 3 to 5, and the peculiar finding that
parental IQ is more im portant for E m otio nal Support than for C o g n itiv e
S tim ulatio n.
T em p eram en t in Very Young C hildren
T h e first o f the m easures applies to very young ch ild ren (12 to 23

m o n t h s ) , and consists o f in dexes of difficulty and frien d lin ess. O n c e
a g a in we focus o n child ren w ho exh ib it the m o st c o n sp ic u o u s sign s of
h a v in g p r o b le m s those in the b o tto m d ecile as sh o w n in the fo l
lo w in g t a b le .1681 G en erally, babies were m ore d ifficult m ore irritable,
m o re fearful, a n d less so ciable for m others with lower c o g n itiv e ab il
ity, an d they were also less friendly, as m easured by this index.
W h ic h W h ite T o d d le rs H a v e th e W o rst T e m p e ra m e n ts?

Percentage of Percentage of
C hildren in the M ost Children in the Least
D ifficult Decile on Friendly D ecile on
the D ifficulty Cognitive C lass the Friendliness
Index of the M other Index
1 Very bright
4 11 Bright 3
8 111 Norm al 5
14 IV D ull 11
V Very dull 12
8 A ll whites 6
M o to r a n d S o cial D evelopm ent in Infants an d Toddlers
M o t o r a n d so cial d ev elo p m en t is, in effect, a set of m easu res d esign ed

to c a p tu re w h eth er the child is progressing in the ways d escribed as n o r
m al in th e baby m anuals by S p o c k , Braze Iron, et al. T h e table below
sh o w s the results for children through the age o f 3. T h e results lo o k like
a U - s h a p e d curve, with a big ju m p in C la ss V. S in c e sa m p le sizes in both
C l a s s I a n d C l a s s V are under 100 (75 an d 81, respectively), this in for
m a t io n falls in the category o f interesting but uncertain.
B e h av io ral Problem s in O lder Children
For o ld e r ch ild ren , the N L S Y em ployed an in stn im en t th at m easured

b e h a v io r a l p roblem s, with su bscales on an tisocial behavior, d epression,
Parenting 227
W h ic h W h ite C h ild re n A r e B e h in d in
M o to r an d S o c ia l D e v e lo p m e n t?
Percentage of C hildren
in the B o ttom D ecile
C ognitive C lass of the M o tor <Si Social
of the M other D evelopm ent Index
I Very bright 10
II Bright 5
III N o rm al 6
IV D u ll 10
V Very dull 32
A ll whites 7
h ead stro n g n ess, hyperactivity, im m atu re d e p e n d e n c y , an d p eer con-

flict/social w ithdraw al. T h e table below s h o w s th e results for th ose who
had the m ost sev ere problem s those in t h e w orst 10 p e rc e n t on these
measures.
W h ich W h ite C h ild re n H a v e th e

W o rst B e h a v io ra l P r o b le m s ?
P e r c e n t a g e o f C h il d r e n
C o g n it iv e C la s s in the W o r s t D e c il e of the
o fth e M o th e r B e h a v io ra l P r o b l e m s Index
I Very bright 11
II Bright 6
III N orm al 10
IV D u ll 12
V Very dull 21
A ll whites 10
O n c e again , th ere is the curious c ase o f th e e l e v a te d p e rc en tag e for

children o f m o th e r s in C la ss I. T h e m ost p r u d e n t a ssu m p tio n is that it
is a n artifact o f sm all sam p le sizes, but the p o ssib ility rem ain s th a t so m e '
thing else is g o in g o n worth in vestig atin g in g re a te r d etail, with larger
samples,
A jt Index of D evelop m en tal Problem s
E a ch o f th e d e v e lo p m e n ta l in dexes we h a v e rev iew ed is b a sed o n a n u n v

her o f in dividu al items, w hich in turn lend t h e m s e l v e s t o a wide variety
o f analyses th a t w ould take us far beyond t h e s c o p e o f this discussion.
228 CognitiVe Classes atul Social Bchai'ior
W e c o n d u c te d m a n y analyses for the separate indexes, b u t rhe ov e rall

p a tte rn s were sim ilar. For o u r purposes in c o n v e y in g to yo u the general
p atte rn of results, it is su ffic ie n t to sum m arize th e results tor a broad
q u e stio n : W h a t in d e p e n d e n t role, if any, does the m o t h e r s I Q h a v e o n
th e p ro b a b ility t h a t h e r c h ild experiences a s u b s ta n tia l d e v e lo p m e n ta l
p ro b le m ? W e created a s im p le d e v e lo p m e n ta l p ro b le m in d e x , in
w h ic h th e c h ild scores Yes if he or she were in the b o tto m d e cile of any
ot th e fo u r in d ic a to rs in a g iv e n test year, a n d N o it n o t. T h e results are
s h o w n in th e n e x t figure.
B o th a w h ite m o th e rs IQ and so c io e c o n o m ic
b a c k g ro u n d h av e m o d erate re la tio n sh ip s w ith
the d e v e lo p m e n tal p ro b lem s in the ch ild
P robability o f h a v i n g a child in the bottom de cile

on one o f the d e v e lo p m e n t a l indicators
207r -
As the m o ther's IQ
()c / ,------------------------------------ 1----------------------------------------1--------------------------------------,-------------------------------------- r
Very low V ery high

(-2 SDs) i+2SDm
T h e p a tte rn s h o w n in th e figure generally app lies to th e four d e v e l

o p m e n t in d icato rs separately: I Q has a s o m e w h a t larger in d e p e n d e n t e f
fect t h a n s o c io e c o n o m ic b a c k g ro u n d , hu t of m odest size a n d m a r g in a l
sta tistic a l s ig n ifican ce .
Parenting 229
T h e Role of Poverty, W elfare, an d Illegitim acy
W e repeated the analyses a d d in g a p o v e r t y variab le (W as the m o th e r

living in p overty in the year the d e v e l o p m e n t a l m easures were taken.'1),
a welfare v a ria b le (W as the m o th e r o n A F D C in the year the d e
v e lo p m e n ta l m easures were ta k e n ?), a n d legitim acy variable (W as
the child burn ou tsid e m arriage?) W h e n entered separately or in
c o m b in a tio n , e a c h had a statistically s ig n ifi c a n t in d ep en d en t role.|b91
C o n s id e r the stark contrast b etw een a c h ild horn to a n unmarried
m other, on w elfare and in poverty, a n d a child horn to a married
m other, not o n welfare and a b o v e the p o v e rty line. G i v e n a m oth er
with av erage IQ a n d so c io e c o n o m ic b a c k g r o u n d , the c h a n c e s that the
first child had a substantial d e v e l o p m e n t a l p roblem were alm ost twice
as high as th o se facing the se c o n d c h il d IS p erc en t com p a red to 8
p ercent. Rut ta k in g these factors in to a c c o u n t d id not wipe out the in-
d e p e n d e n t role of either IQ or the m o t h e r s so c io e c o n o m ic b a c k
ground; in (act, the in d ep en d en t effec ts ot I Q an d so c io ec o n o m ic
b ackgro u n d alter ex trac tin g rhe in d e p e n d e n t role of poverty, illegiti
macy, an d welfare, is visually alm ost in d istin g u ish a b le from the on e
shown ab ove.
T h e Role of E d u cation
A n a ly se s ot th e college grad u ate sa m p le were p ro v o c a tiv e but no more

th a n that, bec au se only 29 out of 4 7 0 c h ild re n of white college g ra d u
ates w ho were tested (6 p e rc en t) sh o w e d up with a su bstantial d e v e l
o p m e n ta l problem . T h e p r o v o c a tiv e fin d in g was that a m o n g those 29,
5 were c h ild re n of w om en in C l a s s I ( 1 0 p e rc e n t ot the 50 such child ren
tested ). T h u s in the college sam p le, the s ta t istic a l result ot hold ing s o
c io e c o n o m ic b ackgro un d c on stan t was t h a t h igh e r I Q was associated
with a su b sta n tia lly higher probability of h a v i n g d e v e lo p m e n ta l p ro b
lems. Five ovit o f 50 is ot course no t e n o u g h to m a k e m u c h ot these n u m
bers, but we c o m m e n d the fin din g to o ur c o llea g u es who specialize in
child d e v e lo p m e n t.
W ith in th e h igh school sam p le, the in d e p e n d e n t roles ot IQ and
s o c i o e c o n o m i c back g ro u n d were a l m o s t identical, and ot the sam e
order of m a g n it u d e in dicated in rhe figure tor the entire white
sam ple.
2.30 Cognitive Classes and Social Behavior
T H E C O G N IT IV E O U T C O M E
W e finally c o m e to the in telligence o f the children o f w hite N L S Y

w o m e n . T h e m easure o f in telligence we shall he using is the P eabody
P ic tu re Vocabulary T est ( P P V T ) , a widely used m easure o f c o g n itiv e
ability in child ren that h as the ad v a n tag e o f not requiring that the child
be ab le to read. T h e scores for the N L S Y children are ex p ressed in term s
o f the n a t io n a l norm s for the PPV T, which use a m e a n of 100 an d a s t a n
dard d e v ia tio n o f 15. B ecau se IQ scores tend to be volatile for ch ild ren
u n d e r the age o f 6, we limit the sam ple to children w ho were at least 6
w h e n they took the test.
T h e unsutprising news in the n ex t table is that the ch ild ren rend to
resem ble their m others in I Q .' But by c o n tin u in g to use the worst
I Q in t h e M o t h e r a n d t h e C h i l d f o r W h i t e s in t h e N L S Y
Percentage of T h eir
Cognitive C lass M ean IQ of Children in the
of the M others T h eir Children Bottom D ecile of IQ
I Very bright
II Bright 107 7
III N orm al 100 6
IV Dull 95 17
V Very dull 81 59
A ll whites 99 10
d e c i l e as a way o f zeroing in on the children most at risk, the table

m a k e s an o th e r point: W h ite parents throughout the top three-quarters
of the IQ distribution h av e few children w ho fall in to the b o tto m d ecile
of I Q .*'11For m others in the b o tto m quarter o f the distribut ion, however,
the p ro p o rtio n o f low IQ child ren rises precipitously. W e return to this
issue in C h a p t e r 15.
T h e Role o f Socioeconomic Background
C o n s i s t e n t with the c o n c lu sio n s drawn in a large te c h n ica l literature,

th e I Q o f the N L S Y m oth ers was m uch more im p orta n t th a n their s o
c io e c o n o m ic backgrou nd in d eterm in in g their c h ild r e n s I Q .1' 1A white
c h i l d s I Q in the N L S Y sam p le went up by 6.3 IQ p o in ts for e a c h in
c r e a se o f o n e standard d e v ia tio n in the m o th e r s IQ, c o m p a red to 1.7
p o in ts for ea c h increase of on e stan dard d e v iatio n in the m other's so-
Parenting 231
c io e c o n o m ic b a ck g ro u n d (in a n analysis t h a t a lso extracted the effects

of the m o th e r s age, the test year, and the a g e o f th e child w hen tested ).
W h e n we e x a m in e the probability t h a t th e c h ild will fall in the b o t t o m
decile ot IQ, we arrived at rhe results s h o w n in th e n ex t figure.
A w h ite m o th e r s IQ d o m in a te s th e im p o r ta n c e of so c io e c o n o m ic
b a c k g ro u n d in d e te r m in in g th e c h ild s IQ
P r o b a b ility o f h a v in g a ch ild in the b o t t o m d e c ile o f IQ
(-:.SDs) (+2 SDs)
Note: For com putin g the plot, age and either S E S (tor the Mack curve) or IQ (tor the gray
curve) were set at their mean values- Additional independent variables were used tu conrrol
tor the test year and the age ot the children when they rook the rest.
A m o th er a t rhe 2d IQ c e n tile hut o f a v e r a g e socio ec o n o m ic b a c k

ground had a 50 percen t c h a n c e that her c h il d would be in the b o t t o m
decile o f IQ, c o m p a r e d to only a 10 p e r c e n t c h a n c e facing the w o m a n
from an e q u iv a le n tly terrible s o c i o e c o n o m i c b a ck gro u n d (2d c en tile on
the S E S in d e x ) bur with an av e rag e IQ.
T h e Role of Poverty arui the H om e E n v iro n m en t
In discu ssions of IQ a m o n g d is a d v a n ta g e d g ro u p s, it seems p lausible that

factors su ch as p overty and rhe a sp e c ts o f t h e h o m e en v iro n m en t w ould
h av e an effect on the c h il d s IQ . S u p p o s e , for e x a m p le , we were to ig
nore rhe m other's IQ , and look only at her s o c i o e c o n o m i c back g ro u n d ,
her p overty status in the year before her child was tested, and her H O M E
in dex score. In that case, we c ould d o c u m e n t the c o n v e n tio n a l wisdom:
b o th so c io e c o n o m ic back gro u n d and the h o m e e n v iro n m e n t h a v e large
effects o n w h eth er a child scores in the b o tto m IQ decile. Poverty has
a sm aller a n d statistically m argin al effect. But w hen we add the m o t h e r s
IQ, all of th o se other effects b ec o m e bo th small in m a g n itu d e and s t a
tistically in significant. A fte r taking so c io e c o n o m ic b a ck g ro u n d , the
H O M E in d e x , an d pretest poverty into a c c o u n t, the in d e p e n d e n t ef
fect o f I Q rem ain s virtually identical to the one show n o n the p r e c e d
ing figure.
T he Role o f Education
N o n e o f th e child ren in the b o tto m decile o f IQ had a m o th e r with a

b a c h e lo rs degree. In the h igh sch ool graduate sam ple, the in d ep en d en t
role o f th e m o th e rs IQ rem ain s large and the in d e p e n d e n t role ot s o
c io e c o n o m ic background rem ains small. But in the process o f e x p lo rin g
this issue, we cam e upon an effect o f ed ucation that is worth exp lo ring:
W o m e n w h o did not c o m p le te high sch ool were at m u ch h igh e r risk ot
p ro d u c in g children in the bo tto m decile of IQ th an w o m en in rhe high
school sa m p le ( m e an in g a h igh sc h o o l d ip lom a and e x ac tly 1 2 years of
ed u c a tio n ) , even after co n tro llin g for m o th e rs IQ an d so c io e c o n o m i c
ba ck g ro u n d . A d d itio n a l analyses did not clarify what this finding m ight
m ean; we c o m m e n d it to our colleagues for a full-scale analysis.
T H E A SYM M ETRY OF G O O D A N D B A D P A R E N T S
G r a n t i n g the m any e x c e p tio n s at the individual level, the relatio n sh ip

o f c o g n itiv e ability to p a re n tin g is unm istakable. S o m e ol these a n a ly
ses hav e in v o lv ed m easures th at are arguable. C a n we really be sure that
the in d ic ators o f w hat co n stitu tes a stim ulating and nurt uring e n v ir o n
m ent are n o t just reflections o f the preferences of the upper m id dle class?
We h o p e our readers do n o t take this easy way out. If the in dicators that
were used in the studies we h a v e reported are indeed o n e s that you tind
valid in your own beliefs ab o u t w hat children need, th en the c o n c l u
sion follows: O v e r the long run an d in the broad persp ective, based on
your best un d erstan d in g o f the realities o f child rearing, sm art p aren ts
tend to b e better parents. People with low c ognitive ability tend to be
worse p aren ts. T h is c o n c lu sio n holds for a wide range of p a re n tin g b e
Parenting 2 33
haviors, from p re n a ta l n e g lig e n c e t h a t lead s to low birth weight, to p o s t

n atal tre a tm e n t ot the child a sso c ia te d w ith n e g le c t and abuse, to d e
velo p m en tal o u tc o m e s, to c o g n itiv e o u tc o m e s.
O n rhe o th e r h a n d , th ese d a t a p ro v id e little or n o evid ence th a t th e
smartest w o m e n m ak e the best m others. C h i l d r e n c a n flourish in a w id e
variety ot e n v ir o n m e n t s that are m erely okay. Rut som e e n v ir o n m e n t s
are so had th a t no o n e c a n seriously d isp u te that they are bad, and e v e n
the m ost r e silie n tc h ild re n h av e difficulty o v e r c o m i n g them . T h e se truly
d isa d v a n ta g e d h o m e s are d isp ro p o r tio n a te ly asso c ia te d with w o m en a t
the low end of the in telligence d istrib u tio n , e v e n after other c o n t r ib u t
ing factors su c h as poverty and s o c i o e c o n o m i c statu s are taken in to a c
count.
Chapter 11
Crime
Am ong the m ost firmly established facts about crim inal offenders is that their
distribution of IQ scores differs from that o f the population at large. T aking
the scientific literature as a whole, crim inal offenders have average IQ s o f
about 9 2 , eight points below the m e a n . More serious or chronic offenders g e n
erally have lower scores than more casu al offenders. The relationship of J Q
to criminality is especially pronounced in the sm all fraction of the population,
primarily young men, who constitute the chronic crim inals tfuit account fo r a
disproportionate am ount o f crime. O ffenders who have been caught do not
score much lower, if at all, than those who are getting aw ay with their crim es.
H olding socioeconomic status constant does little to explain away the re la
tionship between crime and cognitive ability.
High intelligence also provides som e protection again st lapsing into crim i
nality fo r people who otherwise are at risk. Those who have grown up in tu r
bulent hom es, have parents who were themselves crim inal, or who have
exhibited the childhood traits that presage crime are less likely to become crim
inals as adults if they have high IQ .
These findings from an extensive research literature are supported by the
evidence from white males in the N L SY . L ow IQ w as a risk factor for crim i
nal behavior, whether criminality w as m easured by incarceration or by self-
acknowledged crimes. The socioeconomic background o f the N LSY 's white
males was a negligible risk factor once their cognitive ability was taken into
acco u n t.
C
rim e c a n tear a free society ap art, b e c a u se free so c ieties d e p e n d so
crucially o n faith that th e o th e r p e rso n will b e h a v e decently. A s
crim e grows, society m ust su b stitu te c o e r c io n for c o o p e ra tio n . T h e first
casu alty is n o t just freedom h u t th e b o n d s th at m a k e c o m m u n ity life a t
236 Cogt\itive Classes and Social Behavior
tractive. Yes, it is always possible to buy better locks, stay oft the streets
after dark, regard every stranger suspiciously, post security guards ev e ry
where, b u t th ese are p oor substitutes for living in a p eaceful and safe
n e ig h b o rh o o d .
M o st A m e r i c a n s think that crim e has gotte n far too high. Rut in
the ru m in a tio n s ab out h ow the n ation has reached this state an d what
m ig h t be d o n e, too little atte n tio n has been given to one ot the best-
d o c u m e n t e d relationships in the study o f crime: A s a group, c rim in als
are below av erage in intelligence.
A s w ith so m any of the other problem s discussed in rhe p revious six
c h ap ters, things were nor always so bad. G o o d crim e statistics do not go
b a c k very far in the U n ite d S tate s, but we do not need statistics to re
m ind A m e r i c a n s alive in the 1990s ot tim es when they felt secure w a lk
ing late at night, alone, e v e n in poor n eigh borh o od s and e v e n in the
n a t i o n s largest cities. In the m id-1960s, crim e took a c o n sp ic u o u s turn
for the worse. T h e overall picture using the official statistics is sh ow n in
the figure below, expressed as m ultiples o f the violent crim e rare in 1950.
T h e figure shows the kin d ot crim e that worries m ost p eo p le m ost vis-
cerally: v io le n t crim e, w hich consists of robbery, murder, ag gra v ated a s
sault, a n d rape. From 1950 rhrough 1963, rhe rare tor violen t crim e was
T h e bo om in v io len t crim e a fte r th e 1 9 5 0 s
P ropo rtio n a l c h a n g e in n u m b e r o f violent

c r im e s reported to the p o lic e ( 1 9 5 0 = 1 )
1950 19 60 1970 1980 1990
Source: Uniform Crime Reports, annual, Federal Bureau of Investigation.

Crime 237
alm ost flat, follow ed by an extrem ely rapid rise from 1964 to 1971, f o l
lowed hy c o n tin u e d in creases until the 1980s. T h e early 1980s saw a n
interlude in w h ich violen t crim e d e c r e a s e d noticeably. B u t the trend-
line for 1 9 8 5 - 1 9 9 2 is e v e n steeper t h a n t h e o n e for 1 9 6 3 - 1 9 8 0 , m a k
ing it look as if the lull was just th at a b r i e f respite from an increase in
violent crim e th at is now thirty years o ld .'1'
T h e r e is still so m e a rg u m e n t a m o n g t h e exp erts about w hether t h e
n um bers in rhe graph, drawn from the F B I s Uniform Crime R eports,
m e an w hat they seem to m ean. But the d is a g r e e m e n t has limits. D r a w
ing on so p h istic a te d analyses of these n u m b e rs, the consen sus c o n
c lusion s are th a t victim izatio n studies, b a se d o n interviews o f c r im e
v ictim s an d therefore in clu d in g c rim e s n o t reported to the p olic e,
in dicate that the increase in the total r a n g e of crim es sin ce 1973
has not b een as great as the official sta t is tic s suggest, but that th e
increase reflected in the official statistics is also real, capturing c h a n g e s
in crim es that p eop le con sid er serious e n o u g h to warrant reporting to
the p o lic e .121
D EP R A V ED O R D EP R IV ED ?
T h e ju v en ile d e lin q u e n ts in L eon a rd B e r n s t e i n s West Side Story tell O f

ficer K rupke th a t they are d e p r a v e d o n a c c o u n t of were d e p r iv e d ,
sh o w in g an a stu te grasp o f the poles in c r im in o lo g ic a l theory: the p s y
c h o lo g ica l a n d the so c io lo g ic a l.'1' A r e c r im in a ls psychologically d i s
tinct? O r are they ordinary people r e s p o n d i n g to social and e c o n o m i c
c irc u m stan c e s?
T h e o r ie s o f c rim in al b e h a v io r were m o stly n ea r the so c iological p o l e
from the 1950 s through the 1970s. Its l e a d in g scholars saw c rim in als as
m u ch like the rest o f us, e x c e p t that s o c ie ty earm arks them for a life o f
crim in ality. S o m e of th ese scholars went further, seeing crim inals as free
of personal blam e, e v e n in g up the score w ith a society that has v i c t i m
ized them . T h e m o st radical th eo rists from the so c iological pole a rg u e d
th at the d e fin itio n o f crim e was in itself id e o lo g ic a l, creatin g c r im in a ls
of p eop le w ho were d o in g n o th in g m ore t h a n b e h a v in g in ways th at t h e
power structu re c h o se to define as d e v i a n t . In their m ore m o d e r a t e
forms, so c io lo g ic a l e x p la n a tio n s c o n tin u e t o d o m in a te public d iscou rse.
M a n y p e o p le take it for gran ted, for e x a m p l e , that poverty and u n e m
p lo y m en t c au se c r im e classic so c i o l o g ic a l a rg u m e n ts that are d i s t i n
guished m ore by their pop u larity t h a n by e v i d e n c e . 4
2 38 Cognimv Classes and Social Behavior
T h e o r i e s nearer the p sychological p ole were m ore c o m m o n earlier

in th e history of crim inology and h a v e lately regained a c c e p ta n c e
a m o n g exp erts. Here, the em p h a sis shifts to the ch arac teristics of rhe
offen der rather than to his circum stances. T h e idea is th a t c rim in als
are d istin c tiv e in psychological (perhaps even bio lo g ic al) ways. T h e y
are d efic ien t, d epen din g on the particular theory, in c o n sc ie n c e or in
self-restraint. T h e y lack no rm al a tta c h m e n t to the m ores of their cu h
ture, or they are peculiarly indifferent to the feelings or the good o p i n
ion o f others. T h e y are overend ow ed with restless energy or with a
h un ger for adventure or danger. In a term that was in c o m m o n use
th ro u g h o u t the n in eteen th and early tw entieth centuries, c h ro n ic o f
fenders m ay he suffering from moral insanity. 1 In o th e r old -fash ion ed
vo ca b u laries, they hav e b een called in h u m a n e, atavistic, d e m e n te d ,
m o n stro u s, or bestial all words that d epict certain in dividuals as
so m e th i n g less than hu m an. In their m ost extrem e form, p sy c h o lo g i
cal th e o rie s say that so m e p eo p le are born crim inal, d estin ed by their
b io lo g ic al m akeup to offend.
W e are at neither o f these theoretical poles. Like a lm o st all other
stu d en ts of crime, we ex p ect to find e x p la n atio n s from bo th sociology
and psychology. T h e reason for calling atten tio n to the c o n trast b e
tw een th e theories is that public d iscussion has lagged; it rem ain s m ore
nearly stu c k at the sociological pole in public discourse th an it is a m o n g
experts. In this chapter, we are interested in the role that c o g n itiv e
ability plays in creating crim in al offenders. T h is by n o m e a n s requires
us to d e n y that sociology, eco n o m ics, and public policy m ig h t play an
im p o rta n t part in sh ap in g crim e rates. O n rhe contrary, we assum e that
c h a n g e s in those d om ain s are likely to interact with p erson al c h a r a c
teristics.
A m o n g the argum ents often m ad e against the c la im th a t c rim in als
are psychologically distinctive, two are argum ents in p rin ciple rather
th an in fact. We will c o m m e n t on these two first, b e c au se they d o not
require an y ex ten sive review of the factual evidence.
A r g u m e n t 1: C rim e rates h av e ch an ged in recent tim es m ore th an

p e o p l e s cog n itiv e ability or personalities could h ave. W e must th e re
fore find the reason for the rising crim e rates in p e o p le s c h a n g i n g c ir
c u m sta n c e s.
Crime 239
W h e n c rim e is c h a n g in g quickly, ir s e e m s hard to blam e c h a n g i n g

perso n a l c h arac teristics rather t h a n c h a n g i n g social c o n d itio n s. B u t
bear in m in d th at p ersonal c h a ra c te ristic s n eed n o t c h an ge e v ery w h ere
in society tor c r im e s aggregate level in s o c ie ty to change. C o n s id e r a g e ,
for e x a m p le , sin ce crim e is m ainly the b u sin e ss o f young people b e t w e e n
15 and 24.' W h e n the age distribution o f the p o p u la tio n shifts to w a r d
m ore p eo p le in their p eak years for c rim e , the average level of c r im e
m ay be e x p e c te d to rise. O r crim e m ay rise d isp rop ortion ately if a larg e
bulge in the youthful sector of the p o p u la t io n fosters a youth c u ltu r e
that relishes u n c o n v e n tio n a lity o v e r tra d itio n a l adult values. T h e e x
p lo d in g c rim e rate of the 1960s is, for e x a m p le , partly exp lained by th e
baby b o o m e r s reac h in g ad o le sc e n c e .' O r su p po se that a style o f c h ild
rearing sw eep s the country, a n d it turns o u t th at this style of child r e a r
ing leads to less c o n tro l over th e b e h a v io r o f rebellious ad olescenrs. T h e
c h a n g e in style of child rearing m ay p red ic rab ly be followed, fifteen or
so years later, by a c h an g e in c rim e rates. If, in short, c irc u m stan c e s tip
toward c rim e, the c h an g e will sh ow up m o st a m o n g those w ith th e
strongest te n d e n c ie s to break laws (or th e w eakest tend encies to o b e y
t h e m ) . 1* 1 U n d e r s ta n d in g those te n d e n c ie s is the business o f th eo ries at
the p sych ological pole.
A r g u m e n t 2: Behavior is c rim in al o n ly because society say s so.

T h e r e c a n n o t be psychological t e n d e n c i e s to engage in b e h a v io r d e
fined so arbitrarily.
T h is a rg u m en t, m ad e frequently d u r in g the 1960s and 1970s a n d a l

ways m ore p o p u la r a m o n g in tellectu als t h a n with th e general p u b lic , is
heard m ost o fte n op p osin g any su g g e stio n th at crim inal b e h a v io r h a s
biological roots. H o w can s o m e th in g so arbitrary, say, as not p ay in g o n e s
taxes or d riv in g a b o v e a 55 m p h sp eed lim it be in herited? the c ritics ask.
B e h a v io r reg ard in g taxes and speed lim its certainly c a n n o t be c o d e d in
our D N A ; p e r h a p s ev en m ore e le m e n t a l b e h a v io r s such as robbery a n d
m urder c a n n o t either.
O u r c o u n te r a rg u m e n t goes like this: In stea d o f crim e, c o n sid e r b e
h av io r that is less controversial and e v e n m o r e arbitrary, like p laying th e
violin. A v io lin is a cultural artifact, n o less arbitrary th an any o t h e r
m a n -m a d e o b je c t, and so is the m u sical sc ale . Yet few people w o u ld a r
gue that the first violinists in the n a t i o n s great orch estras are a ran do m
sam p le of t h e pop ulatio n. T h e interests, talents, self'd iscip lin e, an d d e d
ication that it takes to reach their level of a c c o m p lish m e n t h a v e roots
in individual psychology quite possibly ev en in biology. T h e variation
across p e o p le in any behavior, how ever arbitrary, will h a v e su ch roots.
T o that we m ay add that the core crim es represented in the v io le n t crim e
and property crim e in dexes murder, robbery, and assault are really
not so arbitrary, unless the moral cod es ot h u m a n cultures th ro u gh o u t
the world m ay be said to be consistently arbitrary in pretty m u c h the
sam e way th ro u gh o u t recorded h um an history.
But e v e n if crim e is ad m itted to be a psychological p h e n o m e n o n , why
should in telligence be im p ortan t? W h a t is the logic that m ight lead us
to ex p ec t low intelligence to be m ore frequently linked with crim inal
ten d en cies th an high intelligence is?y
O n e c h a i n of reaso nin g starts from the observation that low in telli
gence often translates in to failure and frustration in sc h o o l and in the
jo b market. If, for e x am p le, people ot low intelligence h a v e a hard time
finding a jo b , they m ight h av e m ore reason to c o m m it c rim es as a way
of m ak in g a living. If people o f low intelligence have a hard time a c
quiring status through the ordinary ways, crim e m ight seem like a good
altern ativ e route. A t the least, their failures in school anil at work may
foster re se n tm e n t toward society and its laws.
Perhaps the link betw een crim e and low IQ is ev e n more direct. A
lack o f foresight, w hich is often asso ciated with low IQ, raises the a t
tractions o f the im m ediate gains from crim e and lowers the stren g th of
rhe deterrents, which c o m e later (if they c om e at all). To a person of
low in telligence, the threats o f ap p reh en sio n and prison m ay fade to
m ean in glessn ess. T h e y are too abstract, tot) far in the future, too u n
certain.
Low IQ m ay be part o f a broader c o m p le x o f factors. A n ap p e tite for
danger, a stro nger-rhan-av erage hunger for the things th a t you c a n get
only by ste a lin g if you c a n n o t buy them , a n antipathy tow ard c o n v e n
tionality, a n insensitivity to p ain or to social ostracism , an d a host of d e
ra n g e m e n ts of various sorts, c o m b in ed with low IQ, m ay set the stage
for a c rim in al career.
Finally, there are m oral considerations. Perhaps the eth ica l p rin c i
ples for not c o m m ittin g crim es are less accessible (or less p ersuasive) to
people of low intelligence. T h e y find it harder to und erstan d why ro b
bing so m e o n e is wrong, find it harder to ap p reciate the valu es of civil
Crime 241
and c o o p e ra tiv e social life, and are a c c o r d in g ly less inhibited from act-
ing in ways t h a t are hurtful to o th e r p e o p le an d to the co m m u n ity at
large.
W ith these p relim in aries in m ind , let us e x p lo r e the thesis that, w h a t
ever the und erlying reasons m ig h t be, the p e o p le w ho lapse into c r im i
n al b eh avio r are d istin g uish able from the p o p u la tio n at large in their
distribution o f in telligence.
T H E L IN K B E T W E E N C O G N IT IV E A B IL IT Y A N D C R IM IN A L
B E H A V IO R : A N O V E R V IE W
T h e statistical a sso c ia tio n betw een c rim e a n d c o g n itiv e ability has been
know n sin ce in telligen ce testing b e g a n in earn est. T h e British p h y si
c ia n C h a r le s G o r i n g m en tio n ed a lac k of in te llig e n c e as on e of th e d is
tingu ishing traits of the prison p o p u l a t i o n th at he described in a
land m ark c o n tr ib u tio n to m od ern c r im in o lo g y early in the century.10 In
1914, H. H. G o d d a r d , an early leader in b o t h m o d ern crim inology and
the use o f in tellig en c e tests, c o n c lu d e d t h a t a large fraction o f co n v ic ts
were in tellectually su b n o r m a l."
T h e s u b se q u e n t history o f the study of t h e link betw een IQ and crim e
replays the larger story of in tellig en c e te stin g , with the m ain difference
bein g th a t the attac k o n the IQ /c rim e lin k b e g an earlier th an the
broader a tt e m p t to discredit IQ tests. E v e n in the 1920s, the link was
called into q u e stio n , for ex a m p le , by p sy c h o lo g ist C a r l M urchison, who
prod u ced d ata sh o w in g that the p riso ners o f L e av e n w o rth had a higher
m e an IQ th a n th at o f enlisted m e n in W o r ld W ar I.11121 T h e n in 1931,
Edwin S u t h e r l a n d , A m e r i c a s m o st p r o m in e n t crim inologist, wrote
M e n ta l D e ficie n c y an d C r i m e , an artic le th a t effectively put a n end
to the study o f IQ a n d crim e for h a l f a c e n tu r y .15 O b serv in g (accu rately)
that the o ste n sib le IQ differences b e t w e e n crim in als and the general
p o p u la tio n were d im in ish in g as testing p ro c e d u re s im proved, S u t h e r
land leaped to the c o n c lu sio n th at th e r e m a in in g differences would d i s
ap p ear alto g e th e r as the state o f the art im p ro v e d .
T h e differen ce, in fact, did n o t d isa p p e ar, but th at did no t stop c r im
inology from d e n y in g the im p o rta n c e o f I Q as a p redictor of crim in al
behavior. For d e c ad e s, crim in o lo g ists w h o follow ed S u th erlan d argued
th at the IQ n u m b e rs said n o th in g a b o u t a real difference in in te lli
g en c e b e tw e e n offenders and n o n o ffe n d e rs. T h e y were skeptical ab ou t
w h eth er the c o n v ic t s in prisons were truly rep resen ta tiv e o f offenders
in gen eral, a n d they disparaged the te sts validity. W e re n t tests just m e a

su ring so c io e c o n o m i c status by other m eans, and w erent they biased
ag a in st the p eo p le from the lower so c io e c o n o m ic classes or rhe m in o r
ity grou p s w h o were m ost likely to break the law for oth e r reasons? they
asked. By th e 1960s, the asso ciation betw een in telligence an d crim e was
a lto g e th e r d ism issed in crim inology textbooks, an d so it rem ain ed u n
til recently. By th e end of the 1970s, students taking introductory
c o u rses in c rim in o lo g y could read in on e widely used te x tb o o k that the
b e lie f in a c o rre la tio n b etw een low intelligence and crim e has alm ost
d isa p p e a re d in recent years as a c o n seq u en c e of m ore c o g e n t research
fi n d i n g s , 14 or learn from an o th er standard textbo ok of the practical
a b a n d o n m e n t o f feeblem in d ed n ess as a cause of c rim e. 11
It too k tw o of the leading crim inologists o f an o th er g en era tio n , Travis
H ir s c h i and M ic h a e l H in d elan g , to resurrect the study of IQ and c r im
inality th at S u th e r la n d had buried. In their 1977 article, Intelligence
a n d D e lin q u e n c y : A R e visio n ist View, they reviewed m any studies that
in clu d ed I Q measures, too k into a c c o u n t the p o ten tial artifacts, and
c o n c lu d e d th a t ju v en ile d elin q u en ts were in fact characterized by su b
stan tially below -average levels of tested in tellig en c e.16 H irsch i an d Hin-
d e l a n g s w ork took a while to p ercolate through the a cad em y (th e auth o r
of the 1982 ed itio n of o n e of the tex tb o ok s q u oted a b o v e c o n tin u e d to
m a k e n o m e n tio n w hatever of I Q ) , 1' but by the en d o f the 1980s, m ost
c r im in o lo g ists ac c e p te d not just that an IQ gap sep arates offenders and
n o n o ffe n d e rs, but that the gap is genuinely a difference in av erage in
te lle c tu a l level or, as it is som etim es euphem istically called, ac ad e m ic
c o m p e t e n c e . C rim in o lo g y tex tb o o k s now routinely report the c o rre la
tio n b e tw e e n crim e and in telligence, and alth oug h so m e q u e stio n s of
in te r p r e ta tio n are still open, they are narrower th an they used to be b e
c a u se the c o rre la tio n itself is n o longer in d isp u te.|lh|
T h e S ize o f the IQ G a p
H o w big is th e difference betw een crim in als an d the rest o f us? T ak in g

the literature as a whole, in carcerated offenders average an IQ o f about
9 2 , 8 p o in ts below the m ean. T h e p o p u la tio n o f n o n offen d ers averages
m o re th a n 100 p oints; an in form ed guess puts the g ap be tw e e n of
fen d ers and n o n offen d ers at ab ou t 10 p o in ts.1191 M ore serious or m ore
c h r o n i c offenders generally h av e lower scores th an m o re c asu al of
fe n d e r s.lLl' T h e ev en tu al relationship betw een I Q and repeat o ffen d
Crime 243
ing is already p resaged in IQ scores t a k e n w h en the children a re 4

years o ld .21
N o t on ly is there a gap in I Q betw een o ffen d ers a n d n o n o ffe n d e rs,
but a d isp ro p o rtio n ately large fraction ot all c rim e is c o m m itte d by p e o
ple tow ard the low end o f the scale of in te llig e n c e . For e x a m p le , in a
twenty-year lo n g itu d in al study o f o v e r 5 0 0 h u n d re d boys in an u n id e n -
tified S w e d ish com m unity, 30 p e rc e n t o f a ll arrests o f the m en by th e
age o f 30 were o f the 6 percent with IQ s h e lo w 77 (at th e age o f 1 0 ) a n d
80 p erc en t were o f those with IQ s b elow 1 0 0 . 22 H owever, it sta n d s to
reason (an d is supported by the d ata) th a t th e p o p u la tio n o f offen d ers
is short of very low -scoring persons p e o p le w hose scores are so low t h a t
they h a v e trouble m ustering the c o m p e t e n c e ro c o m m it m ost c r im e s .21
A sufficiently low I Q is, in addition, usually e n o u g h to ex e m p t a p e r s o n
from c rim in al p ro se c u tio n .24
D o the. U nintelligent O n es C om m it M o re C r im e s or Ju s t G e t C a u g h t
M ore O ften ?
S o m e critics c o n tin u e to argue th at o ffe n d e rs whose IQ s we k n o w

are u n re p re se n ta tiv e of the true c rim in al p o p u la tio n ; the sm art o n e s
presum ably slip p ed through the net. S u r e ly this is correct to s o m e
degree. If in telligen c e has a n y th in g to d o w ith a p e rso n s g e n e r a l
c o m p e t e n c e , th en it is no t im plausible t h a t sm art crim inals get arrested
less often b e c au se they pick safer crim es o r b ecause they e x ec u te th eir
crim es m ore skillfully.1'5' B u t how m u ch o f a bias does this in tro d u c e in
to rhe d a ta ? Is there a p o p u la tio n o f u n c a u g h t offenders with h i g h
IQ s c o m m i t t in g large nu m b ers of c r im e s ? T h e answer seem s t o be
no. T h e c rim es we can trace to the m il li o n s o f offenders w h o d o p ass
through the c r im in a l justice system an d w h o s e IQ s are kn o w n a c c o u n t
for m u ch o f t h e crim e around us, p articu larly the serious crim e. T h e r e
is n o e v id e n c e for any oth e r large p o p u la t io n o f offenders, and harely
en o u gh c rim e left u n a c c o u n te d for to p e r m it su c h a p o p u la tio n s e x i s
tence.
In the sm a ll a m o u n t o f d ata av ailab le, t h e IQ s o f u n c au gh t o ffe n d e rs
are nor m easu rab ly different from th e o n e s w h o get c a u g h t.6 A m o n g
those w h o h a v e crim in al records, there is s till a significant n e g a t iv e c o r
relation b e tw e e n I Q and frequency o f o f f e n d i n g . 27 B o th of these k i n d s
of e v id e n c e im ply that differential arrests o f p eo p le with v a ry in g IQ s,
assu m in g they exist, are a m in o r factor in t h e ag g reg ate data.
Intelligence a s a Preventative
L o o k in g at the o p p o site side of the picture, those who d o n o t com m it

crim es, it a p p e a rs that high c o g n itiv e ability protects a p erson from b e
c o m in g a c rim in a l ev en if the other precursors are present. O n e study-
followed a sa m p le o f alm ost 1, 500 boys horn in C o p e n h a g e n , D en m ark ,
betw een 193 6 a n d 193 8 .'K S o n s whose fathers h a d a prison record were
alm o st six tim e s as likely to h av e a prison record th em selv es (by the age
of 3436) as the so n s of m en w ho had n o police record of any sort.
A m o n g th e se high-risk sons, the on es w ho had no police record at all
had I Q scores o n e standard d e v iatio n higher than the son s w ho had a
police record .1' * 1
T h e p ro te c tiv e power o f elev ated intelligence also show s up in a N e w
Z ealan d study. Boys an d girls were div ided on the basis of their b e h a v
ior by the a g e of 5 into high and low risk for delinquency. H igh-risk c h il
dren were m ore than twice as likely to b ec o m e d elin q u en t hy their
m id-teens as low-ri.sk children. T h e high-risk hoys or girls w ho d id not
be c o m e d e lin q u e n t were the on es with the higher IQs. T h i s was also
true tor the low-risk boys and girls: T h e n o n d e lin q u e n ts had higher IQs
than the d e l i n q u e n t s . 10
C h il d r e n growing up in troubled c ircum stances o n K a u ai in rhe
I Iawaiian c h a in co n firm rhe pattern. S e v e ra l hundred c h ild re n were fo l
lowed in a lo n g itu d in al study for several d e c a d e s .u S o m e ot th e ch ild ren
were identified by their second birthday as being statistically "v u l n e r a
ble to b e h a v io r a l disorders or delinquency. T h e s e were child ren suffer
ing from tw o or m ore of the following circum stances: they were bein g
raised in troubled or im poverished fam ilies; had alc o h o lic, p sy c h o lo g i
cally d isturb ed, or unschooled (eight years or less o f s c h o o lin g ) parents;
or had e x p e rie n c e d prenatal or perin atal physiological stress. Tw o-thirds
ot th ese c h ild ren suc c u m b ed to d elin q u en cy or other p sy c h o lo gic al d is
turbances. B u t how about the other third, the o n e s w h o grew up w ith
out b e c o m i n g d elin q u en ts or disturbed psychologically. P ro m in en t
a m o n g the p r o te c tiv e factors were higher intellectual ability scores than
the a v e r a g e for the vulnerable g ro u p .'2
T H E L I N K B E T W E E N C O G N IT IV E A B IL IT Y A N D C R IM IN A L
B E H A V IO R : W H IT E M E N IN T H E N L SY
In rhe U n i t e d S ta te s, where crim e an d race have b ec o m e so in tertw ined

in the p u b lic m ind , it is especially instructive to focus o n just whites. T o
Crime 245
T h e R e s t o f the S t o r y
T h e statistically distinguishable personal ch aracteristics of criminals go far

beyond IQ. T h e r e is, for exam ple, the e n o rm o u s difference between the
levels o f male and female criminality, wh ich ca n n o t be explain ed by in
tellectual differences between th e sexes. A c c o u n t s of the rapidly e x p a n d
ing literature on the psychological and b iological correlates of criminality,
which has becom e highly informative ab ou t ev ery thin g from genes to early
childhood precursors, may be tracked in n um e rou s scientific journals and
books. Probably as much could be learned about individual differences
beyond intelligence that characterize the ch ron ically unemployed, u n
married mothers, neglectful parents, and oth e rs who have been the su b
jects of the other chapters in Part II. But t h a t is just surmise at this point.
T h e necessary research has either not been d o n e at all or has been done in
only the .sketchiest way.IHl
simplify m atters, we also limit the N L S Y s a m p le to males. C rim e is still

ov erw h elm in g ly a m a n s vice. A m o n g w h ite s in the sam ple, 83 p e rc e n t
of all p ersons w h o adm itted to a crim in al c o n v i c t i o n were male.
Interpreting Self-R ep ort D a ta
In the 1980 interview wave, the m e m b e r s o f the N L S Y sam ple were

asked d e ta ile d q uestio n s a b o u t th eir c rim in a l activity an d their i n
v o lv e m e n t with the crim inal ju stic e sy stem . T h e s e d ata are kn o w n as
sc If-report data, m e a n in g that we h av e to g o o n w h at the resp o n d en t says.
O n e o b v io u s ad v a n ta g e of self-reports is t h a t they presum ably in clu d e
in form ation a b o u t the crim es of offen ders w h e th e r or not they h av e b e e n
caught. A n o t h e r is that they c irc u m v e n t an y b iases in the crim in al j u s
tice system, w h ich , som e p eo p le argue, c o n t a m i n a t e official c rim in a l
statistics. Rut c a n self-report d ata b e tru sted ? C r im in o lo g ist s h a v e e x
plored this q u e s tio n for m an y years, a n d th e answ er is yes, but o n ly if
the d ata are treated gingerly. D ifferent ra c ia l groups h a v e different r e
sp on se p attern s, a n d th ese are c o m p o u n d e d by differen ces betw een th e
g e n d e rs.1151 O t h e r issues are d isc u ssed in t h e n o t e . 1161
O u r use o f the N L S Y self-report d a ta s id e ste p s so m e of the p ro b le m s
by lim iting the analysis to o n e e t h n i c g ro u p a n d on e gender: w h ite
males. G i v e n the rem ain in g p r o b le m s w ith self-report d ata, we will c o n
246 Cognitive. Classes and Social Behavior
c e n tra te in this analysis o n even ts that are on the pu blic record (and
th e resp o n d en t knows are on the public record): bein g stopped by the
p o lic e , form al charges, an d c on v ic tion s. In d oin g so, we are follow ing a
b ro ad finding in crime research th at official c o n ta c ts with the law e n
fo r c e m e n t and crim inal justice system are usefully a c c u rate reflections
o f the underlying level o f crim in al activity.1371 A t the end of the d isc u s
sio n , we show' briefly that using self-report d ata on u n d e te c te d crim es
reinforces the conclusions drawn from the data on d etec ted crim es.
I Q an d Types o f C rim in al Involvem ent
T h e typical finding has b een th at betw een a third a n d a h alf of all j u

ven iles are stopped by police at som e time or ano ther (a p ro p o rtio n that
has grown ov er the last few d ec ad es) but th at 5 to 7 p erc en t o f the p o p
u latio n a c c o u n t for ab ou t half the total n u m ber of arrests.,h In rhe case
o f white m ales in the N L S Y , 34 percent ad m itted h a v in g b een stop p ed
at som e tim e by the police (for any thing either than a m in o r traffic v i
o la tio n ) , but only 3 percent of all white m ales a c c o u n te d for halt ot the
se If-reported stops.
S o m e th in g similar applies as we m ove up rhe ladder of c rim in al s e v e r
ity. O n ly 18 percent o f w'hite m ales had ever formally b e e n c h arged with
a n offense, and a little less th an 3 percent of them a c c o u n te d for half
t he charges. O n ly 13 percent o f white m ales had ever been c o n v ic te d
o f anything, and 2 percent ac c o u n te d for h a lf of the c o n v ic tio n s. Based
o n these self-reports, a very' sm all m inority of white m ales had serious
c rim in al records while they were in this 15 to 2.3 age range.
L ike studies using all races, the N L S Y results for w h ite m ales show a
regular relationship betw een IQ an d criminality. T h e table b elow p re
se n ts the av erag e IQs of white m ales who h ad p enetrated to v arying le v
els o f the crim in al justice system as o f the 1980 interview.1'9' T h o s e w ho
C rim in a lity an d IQ A m o n g W h ite M a le s

D eepest Level of C on tact with the
Crim inal Justice System M ean IQ
None 106
Stopped by the police hut not booked 103
Rooked but not convicted 101
C onv icted but not incarcerated 100
Senrenced to a correctional facility 93
Crime 247
reported they h ad nev er ev en b e e n st o p p e d by the p olic e (for a n y th in g

other th a n a m in o r traffic v io la tio n ) were a b o v e a v e r a g e in in te llig e n c e ,
with a m e a n I Q ot 106, and th in g s w en t d o w n h ill from there. C l o s e t o
a stan dard d e v i a tio n separated those w h o had n e v e r been stop p ed by
the police from th ose who w en t to prison.
A sim ilar p a tte rn em erges w h en th e c r im in a l in v o lv e m e n ts are so rte d
by c o g n itiv e class, as show n in the n e x t tab le. In v o lv e m e n t with th e
crim in al ju stic e system rises as IQ falls from ( 'l a s s e s I through IV. T h e n
T h e O d d s o f G e t t i n g I n v o lv e d w ith th e P o lice
an d C o u rts fo r Y ou n g W h ite M ales
Pe rce n tage W h o in 1 9 8 0 R e p o r t e d E v e r H a v in g B e e n :
C ogn itive S top p ed by B o o k e d for C o n v ic t e d of Sentenced to

C la s s the Police an O f f e n se an O ffense In carceration
1 Very bright 18 5 5 0
11 Bright 27 12 7 1
111 Norm al 37 20 15 3
IV Hull 46 27 21 7
V Very dull 53 17 14 7
Overall M 18 9 3
we reach ( 'l a s s V, with IQs u nd er 75. If we ta k e the responses a t fa c e

value, the C l a s s V s are sto p p e d , c h a r g e d , an d c o n v ic te d at lower ra te s
than the ( 'l a s s I V s but are s e n te n c e d to c o r r e c t i o n a l facilities at ra te s
almost e x a c tly rhe sam e rate. W e n o te d ea rlie r th a t p eop le at the l o w
est levels ot in tellig en c e are likely to he u n d errep resen ted in c r im in a l
statistics, an d so it is in the N L S Y . It m a y be th a t the offenses o f th e
C l a s s V s are less frequent but m ore serio u s t h a n th ose o f the C l a s s I V s
or that they are less c o m p e t e n t in g e ttin g fa v o r a b le treatm ent fro m r h e
c rim in al ju stic e system. T h e d ata give us n o w ay to tell.
In a d d itio n to self-reports, the N L S Y p r o v id e s d a ta on c rim in al b e
h av io r by n o tin g where the p e rso n was in te rv ie w e d . In all rhe in te rv ie w s
from 1979 to 1990, was the youn g m an e v e r in terview ed in a c o r r e c
tional fa c i li t y !1T h e odds sh o w n in rhe t a b le b elo w (co m p u te d fro m t h e
unro unded results) that a w h ite m a le h a d ever b een interviewed in j a i l
T h e O d d s of D o in g T im e for Y oung W h ite M ales
Percentage E v e r
Interviewed in a
C o g n i t i v e C la ss C orre ctio n al Facility
I Very hright 1
II Bright 1
111 N o r m a l
IV Dull 7
V Very dull 12
O verall 3
were fo u rte e n tim e s greater for C l a s s V th an fur white m ales anywhere

in the to p q u artile of IQ.
B e in g in c a rc e ra te d at the time of the interview signifies not just
b reakin g t h e law a n d serving rime but also som eth in g ab out the dura-
tion o f th e s e n t e n c e , w hich may e x p la in the large increase at the b o t
tom o f the ability distribution. T h e N L S Y sam ple of w hite m ales e c h o es
the sc ien tific literature in general in show ing a sizable IQ g ap between
o ffenders a n d n o n o ffen d ers at e a c h level of in v o lv em en t with the c r i m
inal ju s t ic e system .
The Role o f Socioeconom ic B ackground
We will use b o th self-reports and w h eth er the interview ee was in c a r

cerated at the tim e of the interview' as m easures o f c rim in al behavior.
T h e se lf-rep o rts are from the N L S Y m e n in 1980, w hen they were still
in their te e n s or ju st out o f them . It c o m b in e s reports of m isd em ean ors,
d m g o ffen ses, property offenses, and v io le n t offenses. O u r d efin itio n of
c rim in ality h e re is that the m a n s d escrip tio n of his o w n b e h a v io r put
him in th e to p d ec ile of frequency of self-reported c rim in al activity.1'01
T h e o t h e r m e a su r e is w hether rhe m an was ever interviewed while b e
ing c o n f i n e d in a c orrection al facility between 1979 a n d 1990. W h e n
we run o ur s t a n d a r d analysis for these two different m easures, we get the
results in rh e n e x t figure.
B o th m e a s u r e s o f crim inality h a v e w eaknesses but different w e a k
nesses. O n e relies on self-reports but has the virtue o f in clu d in g u n
c au gh t c r im in a lity ; the oth e r relies on the workings o f the crim in al
ju stice sy stem b u t has the virtue of identifying p eo p le w h o alm o st c e r
tainly h a v e c o m m i tte d serious offenses. For both m easures, after con-
Crime 249
O n tw o d iv e rse m e a su r e s o f c r im e , th e im p o r ta n c e o f IQ
d o m in a te s so c io e c o n o m ic b a c k g r o u n d fo r w h ite m en
T h e probability o f m eeting either o f t w o c r it e r ia o f crim in a lity

2 0 /r -
B la c k lines: Ax IQ goes from low to hifih
G r a y line's: As parental SE S goes from low to high
Note: For co mputing the plot, age and either S l i S (tor the Mack curves) or IQ (for the gray
curves) were set at their mean values.
trolling tor IQ , the m e n s s o c i o e c o n o m i c b a c k g r o u n d h a d little or n o t h

ing to d o with crime. In the c a se of th e self-rep o rt d a ta , higher s o c i o e
conom ic sta tu s was a sso c ia te d w ith higher rep orted crim e after
c o n tro llin g for IQ. In the c a se o f i n c a r c e r a t i o n , the role of s o c i o e c o
n o m ic b a c k g ro u n d was close t o nil a fte r c o n t r o ll i n g for IQ, and sta t is
tically in significan t. By e ith e r m e a s u r e of crim e, a low IQ was a
sig n ifica n t risk factor.
T he Role o f a Broken H om e
W h e n p e o p le think ab o u t the c a u s e s o f c rim e, they usually rhink n o t

only o f the role o f ju ven ile d e l i n q u e n t s a g e a n d s o c i o e c o n o m i c b a c k
ground but a lso o f w h at used to he c a l l e d bro ken h o m e s . It is now a n
in ad eq u a te ph rase, b e c au se m a n y f a m i l i e s d o not e v e n b e g in with a m a r
ried h u sb a n d an d wife, and m a n y b r o k e n h o m e s are recon stituted ( in
som e sen se) th ro u g h rem arriage. B u t w h a t e v e r rhe sp ec ific way in w h ic h
a h o m e is nor in tact, the c h ild re n o f su c h f a m ilie s are u su ally more likely
to get in trouble with the law t h a n c h i l d r e n from in ta c t fam ilies.41 T h i s
w as true for the N L S Y white males. A n in tact family c o n sistin g of the

b i o lo g ic a l m o th e r a n d father was a sso ciate d with better o u tc o m e s for
th e ir c h il d r e n th an an y o f the other fam ily arrangem en ts. W as the young
m a n e v e r s t o p p e d hy the police? T h irty -tw o percent of white m ales from
in ta c t fa m ilie s c o m p a re d to 4 6 p ercen t of all others. B o o k e d for an o f
fe n se ? F ifteen percent c o m p a re d to 29 p ercent. C o n v ic t e d of a n offense?
E l e v e n p e r c e n t c o m p a re d to 21 percent. S e n t e n c e d to a c o rrec tio n al fa
cility.? T w o p e rc e n t com p a red to 7 percen t.
A l t h o u g h fam ily settin g had an im p a c t on crime, it did n o t e x p la in
aw'ay th e p r e d ic tiv e pow er o f IQ. For e x a m p le , a young m a n from a b ro
k e n fam ily an d an av e ra g e IQ and s o c io e c o n o m ic background had a 4
p e r c e n t c h a n c e o f h a v in g b een in terview ed in jail. S w itc h his IQ to the
2d c e n tile , an d the od d s rise to 22 percen t. (Sw itc h his socioeconomic-
b a c k g r o u n d to the 2d cen tile instead, a n d rhe odds rise only from 4 to
5 p e r c e n t .) T h e sam e c o n c lu sio n s apply to the m easure of self-reported
c r im e .
T h e K ale o f E d ucation
S c h o l a r s h a v e b een argu in g about the relation sh ip of e d u c a tio n to crim e

a n d d e li n q u e n c y for m an y years w ithout settling the issue. T h e case ot
rhe N L S Y w h ite m ales is a classic e x a m p le . O f those w ho were ever in
te rv ie w e d in jail, 74 p e rc e n t had not g o tte n a high school d ip lo m a . N o n e
h a d a c o l le g e degree. C le a rly so m e th in g a b o u t getting seriously in volved
in c r im e c o m p e t e s with staying in sch ool. Low IQ is part o f th a t som e
t h i n g in m a n y cases, hut the relatio n sh ip is so strong th at o th e r factors
are p r o b a b ly in v o l v e d for e x am p le, the sam e youngster w ho ts willing
to b u rglarize a h o u se probably is no t th e most o b ed ien t o f pupils; rhe
y o u n g s te r w h o c o m m its assaults on the street probably gets in fights on
rhe sc h o o l groun ds; the youngster w ho is undeterred by the p ro sp ec t of
jail tim e p ro b a b ly is n o t m uch m o tiv a te d hy the prosp ect o f g ettin g a
h i g h s c h o o l d egree; a n d so forth.
D o e s h igh sc h o o l d rop ou t actually c a u se the subsequent c rim e? M a n y
p e o p l e a ssu m e d so until D elbert Elliott a n d H arw in Voss published a
stu d y in 1 9 7 4 that c o n c lu d e d the o p p o site: C rim e d im in ish e d after
s c h o o l d r o p o u t .42 S i n c e th en, e v ery o n e has agreed that even tu al
d r o p o u t s te n d to h av e h ig h levels of c rim in a l activity while they are in
s c h o o l , hut d isp u te s r e m a in ab ou t w h e th e r the rates fall or rise after the
d r o p o u t o c c u r s .14 1
C rime 251
For our p u rposes, it m akes little sense to e x a m i n e the c o n t i n u i n g role

of I Q in o ur usual ed u c atio n al sam p les w h e n th e a c t i o n is so c o n s p i c u
ously c o n c e n tr a te d a m o n those who fall n e i t h e r in the high s c h o o l n o r
the college g ra d u a te sam ples. R u n n i n g our s t a n d a r d analysis on w h ite
m ales w h o did n o t get a high sch o o l d ip l o m a d id n o t shed m uch m o r e
light on rhe m atte r.1441 G i v e n the restriction o f r a n g e in the sa m p le ( th e
m ean IQ of the w hite m ale d rop ou t sam p le w a s 9 1 , with a stan d a rd d e
v iation of only 12.5), not m uch c an he c o n c l u d e d from the fac t th at th e
on es at rhe very b o tto m o f the c ognitive ab ility d istrib u tio n were less
likely to report high levels of crim in al ac tiv ity . For these s c h o o l
dropouts, rhe lik elih o o d o f h a v in g been in te r v ie w e d in jail rose a s IQ
tell, hut the relatio n sh ip was weaker th an tor th e unrestricted sa m p le ot
white males.
C R IM E , C O G N I T I V E A B IL IT Y , A N D C O N S C I E N C E
By now, you will already be a n tic ip a tin g th e usu al c au tion : D e sp ite the
relationship of low IQ to crim inality, rhe great m ajority of p eo p le w ith
low c o g n itiv e ability are law abiding. W e w ill a ls o rake this o p p o rtu n ity
to reiterate that the increase in crim e over th e last thirty years (like the
increases in illegitim acy and welfare) c a n n o t be attributed to c h a n g e s
in in telligen ce but rather must be blam ed o n o t h e r factors, w h ich m ay
h av e put p eo p le of low c o g n itiv e ability at g r e a t e r risk than before.
T h e c a v e a ts should no t ob scu re the i m p o r t a n c e of the r e la tio n sh ip
of c o g n itiv e ability to crime, however. M a n y p e o p le tend to th in k o f
crim in als as c o m in g from the wrong side of t h e tracks. T h e y are c o rre c t,
insofar as that is where p eo p le of low c o g n i t iv e ability d is p r o p o r t io n
ately live. T h e y are also correct insofar as p e o p le w h o live o n the right
side o f the tracks w h eth er they are rich or ju s t stead ily em ployed w o r k
ing-class p e o p le seldo m show up in the n a t i o n s prisons. B u t t h e a s
su m p tion th at too glibly follows from th e s e o b se r v a tio n s is th a t th e
e c o n o m ic an d so c ial d isa d v an tag e is in itse lf rh e cau se of c r im in a l b e
havior. T h a r is n o t what the d a t a say, how ever. In trying to u n d e r s t a n d
how to deal w ith the crim e problem , m u c h o f th e atte n tio n now g i v e n
to p roblem s of poverty and u n e m p lo y m e n t s h o u l d be shifted to a n o t h e r
q uestio n a lto geth e r: c o p in g with co gn itiv e d i s a d v a n t a g e . W e will r e tu r n
to this q u e stio n in the final chapter, w h en we c o n s id e r policy c h a n g e s
that m igh t m ak e it easier for every on e to liv e w ith in rhe law.
Chapter 12
Civility and Citizenship
A free society dem ands a citizenry that willingly participates in the civic e n
terprise, in m atters as grand a s n ation al elections and as com m onplace as
neighborliness. Lacking this qu ality civility, in its core m eaning a society
must replace freedom with coercion if it is to m ain tain order. This chapter ex
amines the contribution o f cognitive ability to the capacity for civility an d cit
izenship.
Most m anifestations o f civility are too fleetin g to he m easured and studied.
O ne realm of activity that does leave m easu rab le traces is political involve
ment, which includes both participation in political activities and some know l
edge and sophistication about them.
For assessing any rehtionship betw een political involvem ent aiid I Q , the
best d ata, surprisingly, are from studies o f c h ild ren , and the results are co n
sistent: Brighter children of all socioeconom ic c la sses, including the poorest,
learn more rapidly about politics an d how governm en t works, and are m ore
likely than duller children to read a b o u t, d isc u ss, a n d participate in political
activities. The gap between brighter a n d duller children in political develop
ment widens with age, unlike the static gap ac ro ss socioeconom ic classes.
For adults, the standard theory o f political involvem ent/or m a n } years has
assum ed that socioeconomic statu s is the vital link. People at higher-status lev
els vote m ore, and they know a n d care m ore ab o u t political m atters than do
people at lower levels of status. B u t the av ailab le research offers ample evi
dence that the key element fo r predicting political involvem ent is educational
level. The people who vote least an d who c a re the least about political issues
are not so much the poor as the m ie d u c ate d , w hatever their income or o c c u
pation. Why does education m atter so m u ch ? T he fragm entary studies a v a il
able indicate that education predicts political involvem ent in A m erica becau se
it is primarily a proxy for cognitive ability.
The N L S Y does not have the d a ta fo r p u rsu in g this m anifestation of civil
ity, but it permits us to explore an oth er asp e c t of it: To what extent is high in
telligence associated with the behaviors associated with middle-class v alu e s"!
The an sw er is that the brighter young people of the N L S Y are also the ones
whose lives most resemble a sometimes disdained stereotype: They stick with
school, are plugging away in the workforce, an d a re loyal to their spouse. In
sofar as intelligence helps L a d people to behave in these w ays, it is also a force
for m aintaining a civil society.
A
m e r i c a s political system relies on the civility of its citizens c i
v ility not in the c on tem p orary sense o f mere p o lite n e ss hut a c
c o rd in g t o an older m ean in g w hich a dictionary clo se at hand defines
as d e fe re n c e or allegian ce to the social order b efittin g a citizen .1'1T h e
w ord in g o f the d efinition is particularly apt in the A m e r i c a n case. C i
vility is n o t obedience but rather allegian ce and d e fe r e n c e words
with old an d honorable m ean in gs that are now largely lost. T h e o b jec t
of these sen tim en ts is not the g o v e rn m e n t but a social order. A n d these
things are required not of a subject hut of a citizen. T a k e n together, the
e le m e n t s ot civility imply beh a v io r that is both con sid ered a n d c o n s i d
erate precisely the kind o f b eh avio r that the F ounders relied up on to
sustain th eir creation, th oug h they would have been m ore likely to use
the word virtue than civility.
T h e p o in t is that, given such civility, a free society as e n v isio n e d hy
the F o u n d e rs is possible. C iv il-ized people d o nor n eed to be tightly
c o n str a in e d by laws or closely m onitored by the organs o f stare. L a c k
ing su c h civility, they do, an d society must over time b e c o m e m u c h less
free. T h a r is why civility was relevan t to the F o u n d e rs v isio n of a free
society a n d also why it rem ain s relevant today. In Part IV, we con sid er
further th e link between in telligence and the polity. A t this poin t, we
ask w h a t the differences are betw een people that e x p la in w h eth er they
are civil. Specifically, what is the role o f intelligence?
M u c h of what could g o under rhe heading of civility is n o t readily
q u a n tifie d . M ow ing the lawn in the su m m er or k eep in g the sidew alks
sh o v e le d in the winter, m a in ta in in g a tolerable level of p erson al hygiene
and g ro o m in g , returning a lost wallet, or visiting a sick friend are nor
entirely d ictated hy fear o f lawsuits or o f retaliation from outraged n e i g h
bors. T h e y likely h av e an e l e m e n t of social en g a g e m e n t, o f c arin g about
o n e s n e ig h b o rs and com m unity, o f w hat we are c a llin g civility. M o st
such ev ery d a y acts of civility are too fleeting to be c a u g h t in the net o f
o b s e r v a ti o n that social sc ien ce requires.
( Civility and Citizenship 255
Fortunately, the b e h a v io rs that, g o i n t o c iv ility ten d to be o f a p ie c e ,

and so m e a c ts leave clear tra c e s th a t c a n b e a g g r e g a t e d a n d stu d ie d . In
the p re c e d in g chapter, we e x a m i n e d o n e set of s u c h b e h a v io r s , c r im e .
C r im e is im p o rta n t in itself, o f c o u rse, b u r it a lso c a p t u r e s th e n e g a t i v e
pole of d isa sso c ia tio n from s o c ie ty at larg e a n d th e c o m m u n i t y in p a r
ticular. E v ery th in g we k n o w a b o u t th e liv e s of m o s t c r im in a ls s u g g e s ts
that in their off-duty hours they a re not c o m m o n l y s h o v e l i n g th e s i d e
walk, visiting sick friends, or r e tu r n i n g lo s t w a l l e ts or d o i n g th e m y r
iad other th in g s that signify g o o d n e i g h b o r s a n d g o o d citizens. In t h a t
light, the c h a p te r o n c rim e m a y b e se e n a s a d is c u s s io n of a g r o w in g i n
civility in A m e r i c a n life an d th e c o n t r i b u t i o n t h a t low c o g n i t i v e a b i l
ity m akes to it.
P O L IT IC A L P A R T IC IP A T IO N A S A N O U T C R O P P IN G O F
C IV IL IT Y
Political p a rtic ip a tio n is n o t t h e th i n g - i n - i ts e l f of civiliry. M o s t o t us c a n

recall a c q u a in t a n c e s w ho sh o w up re lia b ly at to w n c o u n c i l m e e t in g s a n d
are hectoring, o p in io n a te d , a n d g e n e r a ll y d e s t r u c t iv e o f c o m m u n i t y life.
But, as always, we are ta lk in g a b o u t s t a t i s t i c a l t e n d e n c i e s , an d for t h a t
purpose p olitic al p a rtic ip a tio n is n o t a b a d in d ire c t m e asu re .
C o n s id e r the a c t o f v o tin g . W e h a v e frie n d s, c o n s c i e n t i o u s in m a n y
ways, who d o not vote an d w h o e v e n lo o k at us, re g iste rin g an d v o t i n g ,
often at so m e in c o n v e n ie n c e , w irh b e m u s e d superiority. T h e y p o i n t o u t
with in disp u table accuracy t h a t o u r b a l l o t s a c c o u n t for less t h a n a m i l
lionth of the o v erall o u t c o m e of m o s t s t a t e w i d e e le c t io n s , no t to m e n
tion n atio n al on es, a n d that n o m a j o r p o l i t i c a l c o n t e s t in U n i t e d S t a t e s
history has ever been d e c id e d by a s in g le v o t e . 11A r e we b e h a v i n g ir ra
tionally hy voting?''"
N o t if we value civility. In t h i n k i n g a b o u t w h a t it m e a n s to v o te , a
passage in A r i s t o t l e s Politics c o m e s to m i n d . M a n is by n a t u r e a p o l i t
ical a n i m a l, A risto tle wrote, a n d he w h o by n a t u r e a n d n o t by m e re
a c c id e n t is w ith o u t a state, is e i t h e r a b a d m a n or a b o v e h u m a n i t y ; h e
is like the tribeless, lawless, h e a r t h le s s o n e , w h o m H o m e r d e n o u n c e s . 1
T h e p ollin g p la ce is a sort o f c iv ic h e a r t h . In t h e a g g r e g a t e ( t h o u g h n o t
always in every in sta n c e ) th o s e w h o d o n o t v o t e , or w h o v o t e less c o n
sistently, are w eaker in this m a n i f e s t a t i o n ot c iv ility t h a n th o s e w h o d o
vote consistently. T h i n k in w ardly a b o u t w h y you try to k e e p up w ith is
sues that affect your n e i g h b o r h o o d or a t least try to d o s o m e c r a m m i n g
as an e l e c t io n approaches, and why you usually m a n a g e to get t o the

p ollin g p l a c e when rhe e lection arrives (or feel guilty w hen you do not).
A r e we w ron g to assume that the reasons have so m e th in g to J o with a
c o n s c io u s n e s s of the d uties ot being a citizen an d g oo d neighbor?
T h e r e i n lies the m odest claim we m ake here. T h e r e is n o th in g p a rtic u
larly virtu o u s or civil ab ou t being a political activist, but the sim pler
ways in w h ich we carry on the basic political business of a d em o cracy
b e to k e n rhe larger attitudes that m ake up civility.
D E V E L O P I N G C IV IL IT Y IN C H I L D R E N
T h e c o n n e c t i o n between intelligence and political in v o lv e m e n t has

b e e n m o re thoroughly studied for children than for adults. In part, this
is bec au se until recently sch ools routinely gave IQ tests to children.
W ith th e ch ild ren s intelligence test scores as a baseline, social s c ie n
tists c o u ld th en study w hatever variables they were in terested in, such
as political awareness or interest. Resides being relatively easy to do,
studies ot c h ild h ood political d e v e lo p m e n t c irc u m v en ted so m e of the
q uestio n s th at arise with adults; children, for e x am p le, h a v e no vested
p o litical or econo m ic interests (beyond the approval of parents or o t h
ers) to c o m p lic a te the analysis of their responses.
O n e m a jo r study assem bled a sam ple of 12,000 ch ild ren in grades 2
th ro u gh 8, from schools in middle- or working-class n e ig h b o rh o o d s in
b oth large a n d small cities in various regions of the country in the early
1 960s.1" 1 T h e child ren provided inform ation about their fathers' o c c u
p atio n s a n d interest in politics. S c h o o l records in cluded IQ scores for
a b o u t 85 p ercen t of the children. T h e heart of the study was a series of
q u e stio n s ab ou t the ch ild ren s level and range o f p o litic al d e v e l o p
m e n t.1,1 T h e y were, for e x am p le, asked w hether they knew w hich branch
of g o v e r n m e n t enacted laws, w hether they u nderstood rhe duties o f the
p resid ent a n d the courts, w hether they ever read aho ut politics in the
new sp ap ers or talked ab out it to their parents or friends, w h eth er they
felt that they were protected by the g ov ern m en t or w h eth er in d iv id u
als could e x e rt any political in fluence on their own, w h eth er they had
e v e r worn c am p a ig n butto ns or han ded out leaflets for a can d id a te.
T h e i r att itu d e s about voting, about the duties o f a citizen, about p o l it
ical c h a n g e , ahout legal p u n ish m en t, am o n g other things, were probed.
T h e resu lts were predictable in m any ways. Younger ch ild ren tended
Civility and C.itizcrvjhili 257
to see the g o v e r n m e n t in te r m s o f in d i v i d u a ls ( g o v e r n m e n t = th e c u r
rent p resid en t) and as a fixed an d a b s o l u t e en tity ; o ld e r c h il d r e n w ere
better inform ed, were m o re likely t o t h i n k in term s ot in s t it u t i o n s i n
stead ot in dividuals, an d h ad a c le a r e r s e n s e ot th e d u tie s ot c itiz e n sh ip .
T h e higher a c h ild s s o c i o e c o n o m i c b a c k g r o u n d , rhe m o re rapidly h i s
political socializatio n p r o c e e d e d . A m o n g th e d im e n s io n s m o st a ffe c te d
by so c io e c o n o m ic status a g a in , n o s u r p r ise was a c h i l d s se n se ot p o
litical efficacy.181
T h e big surprise in th e stu d y was the i m p a c t o f IQ, w h ich was larger
than th at o f s o c i o e c o n o m i c status. B r i g h t e r c h ild r e n trom e v e n t h e
poorest h ou seh o ld s an d w ith u n e d u c a t e d p a r e n t s learn ed rapidly a b o u t
politics, a b o u t how rhe g o v e r n m e n t w o rk s, a n d a b o u t th e p o s s ib ilit ie s
tor change. T h e y were m o re likely to d is c u s s , read a b o u t, an d p a r t i c i
pate in p olitical activ ities t h a n i n t e ll e c t u a l l y slow er c h i l d r e n were. N o t
only w as the gap in p olitical d e v e l o p m e n t a c r o ss c o g n i t iv e c la sse s larg e r
than the gap across s o c i o e c o n o m i c c l a s s e s , it ten d e d to w i d e n w ith a g e ,
while the g a p due to s o c i o e c o n o m i c c la s s did n o r an im p o r t a n t d i s
tin ctio n in trying to u n d e rsta n d t h e c o m p a r a t i v e roles ot in t e ll i g e n c e
and s o c io e c o n o m ic status. I Q d if f e r e n c e s ten d to be d y n a m ic ; s o c i o
e c o n o m ic differences, static . T h e m o r e im p o r t a n t d is t i n c t io n from o u r
p erspective, however, is t h a t c o g n i t i v e a b il it y h a d m ore im p a c t, a n d s o
c io e c o n o m ic status virtually n o n e , o n a c h i l d s p e r c e p t io n o f rhe d u tie s
of citizenship. If this be civility, t h e n it is m o s t purely a result of i n t e l
ligence, at least a m o n g rhe v a r i a b l e s e x a m i n e d .
A study of older c h ild re n a p p r o x i m a t e l y 4 0 0 high s c h o o l s t u d e n t s
set out to d e te rm in e the im p o r t a n c e of in t e ll i g e n c e , c o n t r a s t e d w ith s o
c io e c o n o m ic status, as a f a c t o r in p o l i t i c a l d e v e l o p m e n t . 9 T h e su rvey
q uestio n s tap p ed a w ide ran g e of p o l it i c a l b e h a v io r s a n d a tt itu d e s. F r o m
the responses, scales were c o n s t r u c t e d to r f o u r t e e n p o litic a l d im e n s io n s .
T h e youn gsters were c h a r a c te r iz e d by a n o v e r a l l m e a su re of s o c i o e c o
n o m ic b a ck g ro u n d , plus s e p a r a t e m e a s u r e s of p a r e n ta l e d u c a t i o n , fam ily
wealth, m edia exposure, a n d a m e a su r e o f v e rb al in te ll i g e n c e m a d e a v a i l
able from sc h o o l records. T o a r e m a r k a b l e d e g r e e and w ith on ly a tew e x
c ep tion s, e a c h ot the p o litic a l d i m e n s i o n s w as m o st stro n g ly c o r r e l a t e d
with in te llig e n c e .1101 T h i s w a s tru e o f s c a l e s th at m e a su re d p o l i t i c a l
know ledge, as would be e x p e c t e d . 1111 B u t th e b righ t y o u n g ste rs were a l s o
m u ch m ore aware o f the p o t e n t i a l i t i e s o f g o v e r n m e n t a n d rhe d u t ie s ot
citizenship civility ag a in . A m u l t i v a r i a t e a n a ly s is o f t h e results i n d i
258 Cognitive Classes arid Sockd Behavior
cated t h a t in telligence per se, rather than so c io e c o n o m ic status, was

d riv in g rhe relationships, and that when so c io e c o n o m ic status was
sig n ifica n tly correlated with a d im e n sio n ot p olitical in v o lv e m e n t, it
was via its effects o n in telligence. It is possible that the im p o rta n c e of
in te llig e n c e was som ew hat inflated in this study b e c a u se rhe youngsters
were d isp ro p o rtio n ately from working-class backgrounds, h en c e under-
e s t i m a t in g the im pact o f so c io e c o n o m ic status in m ore rep resentativ e
sam p le s. H ow ever, the q u alitative o u tc o m e leaves no d ou b t that in telli
g e n c e , ap art from the usual s o c io e c o n o m ic variables, h as a p oten t effect
on p o l it i c a l behavio r for teenagers, as well as for p re te e n s.|u!
V O T I N G BEH A V IO R A M O N G A D U L T S
S o c ia l sc ie n tists do not find it easy to d ragoo n large sam p les oi adult

A m e r i c a n s an d make them sit still for the kinds of assessm en ts of p o lit
ical in v o l v e m e n t that c a n be c o n d u c te d with children. But they try
n o n e th e le ss, and they h a v e had som e success, mostly c e n te rin g on v o t
ing.
D e p e n d i n g on the e lection and the historical period, the tu rn o u t in
e le c t io n s for federal officeholders ranges from ab o u t 25 to 70 percent,
with th e recent level in presidential election s in the 45 to 6 0 percent
range. It m ay or may no t be a pity that so m any ot our fellow citizens
fail to v o te , hut it is a b o o n to social scientists. W ith the d e e p split be
tw een v o te rs and nonvoters, vo tin g has been an in valuable resource for
g a in in g a glim pse into the nature o f this m an ifestatio n o f civility.11 1
V oting a n d Socioeconom ic C la ss
T h e lite ra tu re o n vo tin g repeats the fam iliar story. M o st ot the analysis

has fo c u sed o n so c io ec o n o m ic class, not cog n itiv e ability. T h e standard
m od el o f political p articipation, in cluding voting, is that it is h igh ly d e
p e n d e n t o n so c io e c o n o m ic statu s.'4 C o lle g e grad uates v o te m ore than
high s c h o o l graduates; w hite-collar workers vote m ore th a n blue-collar
workers; an d the rich v o te m ore th an the poor, as W olfin ger s u m m a
rized it . 11 T h e c o n n e c tio n betw een p olitical p articip atio n an d social sta
tus is so s tr o n g that alm ost any measure of it, n o m atter how casu al, will
pick up s o m e part of the relationship. T h e im pression we all h av e that
e l e c t io n s a re settled mostly by the votes o f the m iddle a n d upper classes
broadly c o n str u e d is co n firm ed by careful scrutiny, if so c io e c o n o m ic
status is th e only measure taken of p oten tial voters.
Civility and Citizenship 259
W h e n we are ab le to look b e h i n d the is o la t e d v o t e to b r o a d e r k in d s

o f p olitic al b eh avio r, the s a m e r e l a t i o n s h i p p r e v a ils . T h e la n d m a r k stu d y
o n this topic was c o n d u c te d by S i d n e y V e r b a a n d N o r m a n N i e , w h o
polled several th ou san d p e o p l e r e p r e s e n t i n g t h e n a t i o n a l p o p u l a t i o n in
1967 n o t only ab o u t their v o t i n g b u t a l s o a b o u t o t h e r p o l i t i c a l a c t i v i
ties c a m p a ig n in g , d e m o n s t r a t i n g , c o n t a c t i n g offic ials, a n d s o o n . "
Verba an d N i e identified six c a t e g o r ie s o f p o l it i c a l ac tiv ity , fro m t o
tally in a c tiv e at o n e en d to t h e " t o t a l l y a c t i v e a t th e o th e r, w ith fo u r
g rad atio n s in betw een . A l m o s t w i t h o u t e x c e p t i o n , h o w e v e r p o l it i c a l
p a rticip atio n was d efined, s o c i o e c o n o m i c st a t u s was n o t o n ly a s i g n i f i
c a n t p red ictor in a statistica l s e n s e , but t h e d iffe r e n c e s a c ro ss c la s s e s
were large.1'71 A m o n g the t o t a lly in a c t i v e ( t h e low est c a t e g o r y ) , p e o p le
were alm o st six tim es as likely to b e fro m rhe b o t t o m th ird in s o c i o
e c o n o m ic status as from th e to p th ird ; a m o n g th e to t a lly a c t i v e ( th e
highest c ateg o ry ), m ore t h a n fo u r t i m e s as m a n y were from th e to p th ird
as from the b o tto m third. In b e t w e e n th e e x t r e m e s o f p o litic a l p a r t i c i
p ation, rhe tren d s were u n b r o k e n a n d s m o o t h : T h e h i g h e r the le v e l of
p articip atio n , the m ore likely the p e r s o n w a s fro m a h ig h - sr a tu s b a c k
ground; the lower the level o f p a r t i c i p a t i o n , the m o re likely the p e r s o n
was from a low -status b a c k g r o u n d .
Voting an d E d u catio n
W h a t is it a b o u t s o c i o e c o n o m i c s t a t u s t h a t l e a d s p e o p le to b e h a v e so
differently? V erba and N i e d id n o t p r e s e n t th e b r e a k d o w n s th at p e r m i t
an answer to th at q u e s tio n .1181 For th a t, w e tu rn to a n o t h e r study, by
R a y m o n d W olfin g er a n d S t e v e n R o s e n s t o n e , t h a t used th e C u r r e n t
P o p u latio n S u rv e y s ( C P S ) , c o n d u c t e d by th e C e n s u s B u r e a u , t o a n
swer q u e stio n s a b o u t v o t in g . 1191 T h e a u t h o r s a s k e d w h ic h o f the th re e
c o m p o n e n ts o f s o c i o e c o n o m i c s t a t u s e d u c a t i o n , in c o m e , a n d o c c u p a
tio n al statu s prim arily in f lu e n c e s v o t i n g . T h e c le a r a n s w e r w a s e d u
cation . A c o lle g e e d u c a tio n raise d a p e r s o n s p r o b a b il it y of v o t i n g a l m o s t
4 0 p e rc e n ta g e p o in ts o v e r w h a t it w o u ld b e if t h e p e rso n h a d less t h a n
five years o f ed u c a tio n , in d e p e n d e n t o f i n c o m e o r o c c u p a t i o n a l sta t u s ;
p ostgrad u ate e d u c a tio n raised it e v e n m o r e . E v e n for p e o p l e in t h e t o p
in co m e catego ry (m ore t h a n $ 7 5 , 0 0 0 p er y e a r in 1 9 9 0 d o l la r s ) a c o l l e g e
e d u c a tio n ad d e d 3 4 p e r c e n t a g e p o i n t s to a p e r s o n s p r o b a b il it y ot v o t
ing. O c c u p a t i o n a l status p er se h a d a n e v e n s m a ll e r o v e r a l l e ffec t t h a n
in co m e, and it was a m b ig u o u s t o b o o t . F or e x a m p l e , w ith e d u c a t i o n h eld
c o n s t a n t , sales and clerical workers voted at slightly higher rates than

p ro fessio n a ls or m anagers.
E d u c a t i o n a l attain m en t correlates n o t just with v o tin g itself hut with
p o litic a l knowledge, interest, a n d attitudes in short, with p olitical s o
p h is t i c a t i o n .'0 Political sop h istication , in turn, correlates with v o tin g .1211
E d u c a te d people read more about political issues, an d they keep their
te le v isio n sets and radios tuned to the news and public issues programs
m o re t h a n d o people with less ed ucatio n. T h e y think ab o u t political is
sues a t m o re abstract levels than do less ed u cated people, a n d less in
term s o f concrete, p ersonal benefit. T h e y are m ore likely to disagree
with s ta t e m e n ts like, S o m any people vote in the n a tio n a l e le c tio n that
it d o e s n t m atter much to m e w hether I vote or n o t." Or, It isnt so im
p o r ta n t to vote when you know your party d o e s n t h av e a c h a n c e ro
w in. " By disagreeing, ed ucated people seem to he saying that they p ar
tic ip a te in an election e v e n when the only payoff is a sen se of h av in g
d o n e rhe right thing, w hich we see as a mark of civility.
O t h e r scholars who h av e e x am in e d this issue h av e c o m e to the sam e
c o n c l u s io n that W oltinger and R o sen sto n e d e m o n stra te d most d e c i
sively: it is predom inantly education, rather than in co m e or o c c u p a
tio n al status, that links vo tin g and so c io e c o n o m ic status."' S o m e
sc h o la rs g o so far as to con c lu d e that, aside from the m ajor effect of e d
u c a tio n , vo tin g and so c io ec o n o m ic status hav e little to d o w ith each
o th e r.141 T h i s turns the standard theory on its head: R a th e r t h a n e x
p la in in g the correlation between ed ucatio n and v o tin g as an effect of
s o c i o e c o n o m i c status, the evid ence says that the c orrelation between
s o c i o e c o n o m i c status and voting would m ore properly be attributed to
e d u c a tio n .
T u r n in g the ex p la n a tio n on its head may solve a puzzle th at Verba
an d N i e n o te d .21 H a v in g show n that p olitical leaders respond to pres
sure fro m their constituencies, they wondered why the upper s o c i o e c o
n o m ic c lasses participated m ore in political m atters, w hen those at the
b o tto m were more d ep e n d en t on the g o v ern m en t to solve their p ro b
lems. If th e people who h av e the m ost to gain or lose p articip ate d the
m ost, th e n the lower classes would vote more than the m iddle or upper.
W h y d o n t they? T h e answer is that p articip ation is less a m atte r o f d i
rect b e n e f it than of civility in the sense we are using the word here, and
civ ility is higher am on g m ore educated people than a m o n g less ed u cated
liftl
ones.
S o m e of rhe more cynical dism issals of A m e r i c a n p olitical life are
C'ivility and (. 'itizcnship 261
sim ilarly answ ered. P oor anti h u m b le workers, ic is s o m e tim e s a rg u e d ,

are d isen fran ch ised w h e th e r they v o te o r nor, b e c au se the g o v e r n m e n t
J o e s rhe b idd in g ot rhe rich and well p la ce d . Ir is sm all w onder, th e n ,
that they do not vo te, this a r g u m e n t c o n tin u e s . B u t the e v i d e n c e s h o w s
it is nor so m u c h the p o o r a n d h u m b le w h o tail to vote; it is th e u n e d
ucated. It m ay be easy to believe th a t th e p oor are d ise n fr a n c h ise d , b u t
it is less o b v io u s why it should be the u n e d u c a t e d (p o o r or n o t). W h a t
is the cynic to m a k e ot the fact th at a n u n d erp aid hut w e ll- e d u c a te d
shop clerk is m ore likely to vo te t h a n a less e d u c ate d , rich b u s i n e s s m a n ?
V oting and C ogn itive A bility
T h e link b etw een e d u c a tio n and v o t in g is clear. D oes it really sig n ify a
link b etw een c o g n itiv e ability and v o tin g ? T h e r e is an in direct a r g u
m ent th at says yes, d e sc rib ed in th e n o t e s , 1" '1hut we have b een a b le to
titid only two studies th at tackle th e q u e stio n directly.
I he first did no t h av e an ac tu al m easu re of IQ, only ratin g s of i n
telligence hy in terview ers, based o n th e ir im pressions after so m e t r a i n
ing. 1 his is a legitim ate p ro c e d u re rate d in tellig en c e is k n o w n to
correlate with tested in te llig e n c e bur the results m ust he tre a te d as
ap p ro x im ate . W ith th at in m ind , a m u ltiv a r ia te analysis ot a n a t i o n a l
sam ple in rhe A m e r i c a n N a r io n a l E l e c t io n study in 1976 sh o w e d th a t ,
of all the variables, by far rhe m ost .significant in d e te rm in in g a p e r s o n s
political s o p h istic a tio n were rated in te llig e n c e and ex p ressed in te r
est. Interest, how ever, was itself m o st tellingly affected by i n t e l l i
g e n c e .1^ 1 T h e m ore fam iliar i n d e p e n d e n t v a riab les e d u c a tio n , i n
c om e, o c c u p a tio n a l status, e x p o su re to the m edia, p aren ta l in te re st
in p olitics had sm all or no effects, a fte r rated in telligen ce w as t a k e n
into ac c o u n t.
T h e one study of p o litic al i n v o l v e m e n t that in cluded a test of i n t e l
ligence was c o n d u c te d in th e S a n F r a n c isc o area in the 1970s. T h e
in telligence test was a trun cated o n e , based o n a d ozen v o c a b u l a r y
i t e m s . A b o u t 150 p e o p le were in te rv ie w e d in d ep th a n d asse sse d o n
political s o p h istic a tio n , w h ich is k n o w n to correlate w ith p o litic a l p a r
t i c i p a tio n .0 T h e usual b a c k g ro u n d v a r ia b le s in co m e a n d e d u c a t i o n ,
for e x a m p le were also o b ta in e d . E d u c a t i o n a l att a in m e n t was, as e x
pected, correlated w ith the test score. B u t e v e n this ru d im e n tar y i n t e l
ligence test score pred icted p o litic al s o p h i s t ic a t i o n as well as e d u c a t i o n
did. T o Russell N e u m a n , the stu d y s auth o r, th e e v id e n c e s u p p o rts th e
idea of an in d e p e n d e n t c o gn itiv e-ab ility effect as part o f the proved

[ink b etw een s o c io e c o n o m ic status and political p a r tic ip a tio n . 1
We d o n o t im ag in e that we h a v e told the entire story o f p o litical par-

ticipation. A g e , sex, and e th n ic identity are am o n g the in dividual fac
tors that we h a v e o m itted but th a t political scientists routinely e x a m in e
against the b a c k g ro u n d of v o tin g laws, regional variation s, historical
events, an d the general p o litic al clim ate o f the country. In various p e
riods and t o v arying degrees, th ese other factors h a v e b een sh ow n to be
associated with eith er the sheer level o f p olitical in v o lv e m e n t or its
character. O ld e r p eo p le, for e x a m p le , are m ore likely to vo te th an
younger p eop le, up to the age at w hich the debilities o f ag e in tervene;
w om en in th e p ast p articip ated less than m en, but the g a p has narrowed
to the v a n ish in g p o in t (esp ec ially for ed ucated m en and w o m e n ) ; d if
ferent e th n ic groups reson ate ro different political c a u s e s .
O ur focus on ed u c a tio n a n d intelligence similarly gives insufficient
a tten tio n to o th e r personal rraits th at influence political p articip atio n .
People vary in their sense of c iv ic duty and in the strength o f their party
affiliations, ap art from their e d u c atio n al or intellectual level; their per
sonal values c o lo r th eir p olitical allegian ces and h ow in tensely they are
felt. T h e ir p erso n a lities are exp ressed not just in personal life but also
in their p olitical a c tio n s (o r in ac tio n s).
T h e b o tto m line, then, is n o t th at political p articip ation is sim p le to
describe but that, d esp ite its c om plexity, so narrow a range of in d iv id
ual factors carries so large a bu rd en o f e x p la n atio n . For e x a m p le , the
zero-order c o rre latio n s b e tw e e n in telligence and th e fou rteen p olitical
d im ensions in the study o f high sch ool students described a b o v e ran ged
from .01 to .53, w ith an av e ra g e o f .22; the average c o n e l a t i o n with the
youngsters s o c io e c o n o m ic back g ro u n d was .0 9 .M For the s e n tim e n t of
civic duty the c lo sest a p p r o x im a t io n to civility in this p articu lar set
o f d im e n sio n s the correlation with intelligence was .4. A s we c a u
tioned a b o v e , this m ay be a n ov erestim ate, but perhaps no t by m uch:
T h e zero-order correlation b e tw e e n scores on a brief vocabulary test and
the political so p h istic atio n of a sam p le of adults was . 3 3 . H T h e c o effi
c ients for rate d in telligen c e in a m ultivariate analysis o f p o litic al s o
p h istic atio n were m o re th a n twice as large as for any o f the o th e r
v ariables e x a m in e d , w hich included ed u cation, o c c u p a tio n , age, and
p aren tal in terest in p o litic s.36
T h e c o h e r e n c e o f the e v id e n c e linking IQ and p olitical p a rtic ip a tio n
Civility arul Citizenship 263
as a whole c a n n o t be neglected. T h e c o n tin u ity of the relatio n sh ip over

the life sp a n giv es it a plausibility th at n o sin g le study can c o m m a n d .
T h e other c h a p fe r s in Part II h av e sh o w n t h a t cog n itiv e ability often
ac c o u n ts for the im p o rta n c e o f s o c i o e c o n o m i c c lass and und erlies m uch
of rhe va riatio n th at is usually attributed to e d u c atio n . It a p p ears that
the sam e holds for p olitical particip ation.
M ID D LE-C LA SS V A LU ES: DATA FROM T H E N LSY
T h e N L S Y d o es not perm it us to e x ten d th is discussion directly. N o n e

of rhe q u estio n s in the study asks ab ou t p o litic al p articip ation or k n o w l
edge. But as we draw to the close o f this long se q u e n c e o f c h a p te rs about
IQ and social behavio r, we may use the N L S Y ro rake a n o th e r rack.
For m any years, m iddle-class v a lu e s h a s b e e n a topic o f d e b ate in
A m e r ic a n p ublic life. M a n y a c a d e m ic in tellec tu als hold m iddle-class
values in c o n te m p t. T h e y have a better re p u ta tio n am on g the public at
large, however, w here they are seen rightly, in our view as ways o f
b eh a v in g that p ro d u c e social c o h e sio n a n d order. To use the language
of this chapter, m iddle-class values are related to civility.
T h r o u g h o u t Part II, we hav e been e x a m i n i n g departures from m id
dle-class values: a d o l e s c e n ts d ro p p in g out of school, babies h orn our of
wedlock, m e n d r o p p in g out of th e labor force or en d in g up in jail, w om en
going on welfare. L et us now lo o k at Lhe g lass as h alf full in stead o f half
empty, c o n c e n t r a t in g on the people w ho are d o i n g every th in g right by
c o n v e n tio n a l stan d a rd s. A n d so, ro c o n c lu d e Part II, we p resen t rhe
M id dle C l a s s V a lu e s ( M C V ) Index. It has scores o f Yes a n d N o . A
m an in the N L S Y g o t a Yes if by 1990 he h ad ob tain ed a h igh school
degree (or m o re), b e e n in the labor force th ro u gh o u t 1989, n e v e r been
interviewed in jail, an d was still m arried to his first wife. A w o m a n in
the N L S Y got a Yes if she had o b ta in e d a h ig h sch ool degree, had never
g iv en birth to a baby out o f wedlock, had n e v e r b een in terview ed in jail,
an d was still m arried ro her first h usband. P e o p le who failed any on e ot
rhe c o n d itio n s were scored N o . N e v e r-m a rrie d people who m e t all the
oth e r c o n d itio n s e x c e p t the marital o n e w ere ex c lu d e d from the a n a ly
sis. W e also e x c lu d e d m e n w ho were no t eligib le tor the la b o r force in
1989 or 1990 b e c a u se they were physically u n ab le to work o r in school.
N o te th at th e index d oes n o t d e m a n d e c o n o m i c success. A m an can
earn a Yes d e sp ite b ein g u n em p lo y ed if h e stays in the la b o r force. A
w om an c a n be o n welfare and still earn a Y es if she bore h e r children
w ith in m arriage. M e n and w o m en alike c a n h av e in co m es helow the

p o v e r t y line a n d still qualify. W e do n o t require that the c o u p le h av e
c h il d r e n or t h a t the wife forgo a career. T h e purpose o f rhe M C V Index
is to identify a m o n g the N L S Y p o p u la tio n , in their y o u n g a d u lth o o d
w h e n the in d e x was scored, those people w h o are gettin g on with their
lives in ways t h a t fit the m iddle-class stereotype: T h e y stu c k w ith sch ool,
got m arried, t h e m a n is working or trying to work, the w o m a n has c o n
fin ed her c h il d b e a r i n g to marriage, and there is n o c rim in al record (as
far as we c a n tell).
W h a t d o e s th is h a v e to d o with civility? W e propose that e v e n though
m a n y o th e rs in the sam p le who did n o t score Yes are also fine citizens,
it is this p o p u la t io n that forms the spine o f the typical A m e r i c a n c o m
m unity, filling th e seats at the P T A m eetin g s and the pews at church,
organ izin g the R o ta ry C l u b fund-raiser, c o a c h in g the L ittle League
te a m , or c ir c u l a ti n g a p etition to put a stop light at a d an g ero u s in ter
s e c t i o n a n d sh o v e li n g sidew alks a n d returning lost wallets. W h a t
m ig h t IQ h a v e to d o with qualifying for this group? A s the tab le shows,
a b o u t h alf o f th e sa m p le earned Yes scores. T h e y are m arkedly c o n
W h it e s and the M id d le-C la ss V alu es In d e x
Percentage W ho
C o g n i t i v e C la s s S co red Y es as of 1 9 9 0
I Very bright 74
II Bright 67
III N o r m a l 50
IV Dull 30
V Very dull 16
O v e ra ll 51
c e n tr a t e d a m o n g th e brighter people, with progressively sm aller p r o

p o r tio n s on d o w n through the co gn itiv e classes, to an ex trem ely sm all
16 p e r c e n t o f th e C l a s s V s qualifying.
F u rth e rm o re , as in so m an y other analyses thro ugho ut Part II, c o g n i
tive ability, in d e p e n d e n t of s o c io e c o n o m ic backgrou nd , h as an im p o r
ta n t causal ro le to play. Below is the final version o f the grap hic you
h a v e seen so o fte n .
Civility and Citizenship 265
Cognitive Ability and the Middle Class Values Index
P r o b a b ility o f sc o r in g Y e s o n the M C V I n d e x
80 % -
0%
Very low Ver y high
(-2 SDs) I+2 SDs)
Note: Ior compu tin g the plot, age and either S K S (fur rhe black curve) or IQ (tor the gray
curve) were .set ar their mean values.
A s in tu itio n m ight suggest, u p b r i n g i n g in th e form ot s o c i o e c o

n o m ic b a c k g ro u n d m akes a s ig n if i c a n t d iffe r e n c e . B u t tor rhe NILSY
sam ple, it was n o t as sign ificant as in t e l l i g e n c e . E v en w h en we c o n d u c t
our usual analyses with the e d u c a t i o n s u h s a m p l e s thereby g u a r a n t e e
ing that e v ery o n e m eets one o f th e c r i t e r i a ( fin ish in g h igh s c h o o l ) a
sig n ifican t in d e p e n d e n t role for IQ r e m a i n s . Its m a g n itu d e is d im in ish e d
for the h igh sc h o o l sam p le b u t n o t, cu rio u sly , for the colleg e sam p le.
T h e in d e p e n d e n t role of s o c i o e c o n o m i c b a c k g r o u n d b e c o m e s in sig n if
icant in these analyses and, in th e c a s e o f r h e h ig h - sc h o o l-o n ly sam p le ,
goes rhe w ro n g way after c o g n i t i v e a b il it y is ta k e n into a c c o u n t.
M u c h as we h av e enjoyed p r e p a r in g t h e M i d d l e C l a s s V alu es In d e x ,
we do n o t in te n d it to b e c o m e a new s o c i a l s c i e n c e b e n c h m a r k . Its m o d
est g oals are to p ro v id e a v a n t a g e p o i n t o n c o r r e l a t e s o f civ ility in a p o p
ulation o f y o u n g adults and th e n to s e r v e as a re m in d e r t h a t the
o ld -fash ion ed virtues re p resen ted t h r o u g h t h e in d e x are a sso ciate d with
in telligence.
T H E D IF F E R E N C E B E TW EE N B E IN G SM A R T A N D B E IN G C IV IL
C o g n i t i v e ab ility is a raw m aterial for civility, n o t the th in g itself. S u p

pose th at t h e task facing a citizen is to vo te on an in itiative p rop osin g
som e e n v i r o n m e n t a l policy in volvin g (as en v iro n m e n ta l issues usually
do) c o m p l e x a n d subtle trade-offs b etw een costs and benefits. A b o v e -
av erage in t e llig e n c e m eans that a person is likely to b e b etter read and
better a b le to th in k through (in a purely tec h n ica l sen se) those tra d e
offs. O n th e av e rag e , sm arter people are m ore able to u n d erstan d p oin ts
of view o t h e r t h a n their own. But beyond these c o n tr ib u tio n s o f in tel
ligence to citizen sh ip , high in telligence also seem s to be a sso ciated with
an in terest in issues of civil concern. It is associated, p erhap s surpris
ingly to so m e , with the behavio rs that we identify' with m iddle-class
values.
W e s h o u l d em phasize that vast q u an tities of this raw m aterial called
in telligen c e are n o t n eeded for m any of the m ost fu n d a m e n ta l form s
of civility a n d m oral behavior. A ll o f us m ight well pause at this point
to th in k of the ab u n d a n t e x a m p le s o f smart p eop le who have been
c o n sp ic u o u sly uncivil. Yet these qualification s n o tw ith sta n d in g , the s t a
tistical te n d e n c i e s remain. A sm arter p o p u la tio n is m ore likely to he,
and m ore c a p a b l e of being m ad e into, a civil citizenry. For a n a tio n p re
d icated o n a h igh level of individual autonom y, this is a fact worth
knowing.
PART III
The National Context
Part II was c ircum scribed , rak in g o n s o c i a l b e h a v io r s o n e at a tim e, f o

cusing o n c au sal roles, with th e a n a ly s is r e str ic te d to whites w herev er
the d ata p erm itted . W e now turn to t h e n a t i o n a l s c en e. T h i s m e a n s c o n
sidering all races an d ethnic g ro u p s, w h i c h le a d s to the m ost c o n t r o
versial issues we will discuss: e t h n i c d if f e r e n c e s in c o g n itiv e ability a n d
social behavior, the effects of fertility p a t t e r n s o n the distribution of i n
telligence, an d the overall r e l a t i o n s h i p o f lo w c o g n i t iv e ability to w h at
has b e c o m e kn o w n as the u n d erc la ss. A s w e b e g in , p erh ap s a p ac t is a p
propriate. T h e facts ab out th e s e t o p ic s a r e n o t o n ly c o n tr o v e rsial but
e xceed in gly c o m p le x . For our p a rt, we will u n d e r t a k e to c onfro nt all the
rough q u e stio n s squarely. We ask t h a t you read carefully.
Chapter 13
Ethnic Differences in
Cognitive Ability
Despite the forbidding air that envelops the topic, ethnic differences in cogni-
tive ability are neither surm ising nor in doubt. Large hum an populations d if
fer in many w ays, both cultural and biological. It is not surjrrising that they
might differ at least slightly in their cognitive ch aracteristics. T h at they do is
confirmed by the data on ethnic differences in cognitive ability from aro u n d
the world. O ne m essage of this chapter is that such differences are real an d
have consequences. Another is that the facts are not as alarm ing a s m any peo
ple seem to fear.
East Asians (e .g ., C hinese, Ja p a n e se ), whether in A m erica or in A sia ,
typically earn higher scores on intelligence an d achievem ent tests than white
A m ericans. T he {rrecise size of their ad van tage is unclear; estimates range
from just a few to ten points. A more certain difference between the races is
that E ast A sian s have higher nonverbal intelligence than whites while being
equal, or perhaps slightly lower, in verbal intelligence.
The difference in test scores between A frican -A m erican s and E um pean-
A m ericans as measured in dozens of reputable studies has converged on a p
proximately a one standard deviation difference fo r several decades. Translated
into centiles, this me<m.s that the average white person tests higher than ab ou t
84 percent of the population of blacks an d that the average black person tests
higher than about 16 percent o f the population o f whites.
The average black and white differ in IQ a t every level of socioeconom ic
status ( S E S ) , but they differ more at high levels of S E S than at low levels. A t
tempts to explain the difference in terms o f test bias have failed. T he tests have
approximately equal predictive force for whites and blacks.
In the past few decades, the gap between blacks an d whites n an o w e d by
perhaps three IQ points. The narrow ing appears to have been mainly c au se d
by a shrinking num ber o f very low scores in the black population rather than
270 The National Contexi
an increasing number of high scores. Improvements in the economic circum

stances of blacks, in the quality o f the schools they attend, in better public
health, and perhaps also diminishing racism may be narrow ing the g a p .
The debate about whether and how much genes and environment have to
do with ethnic differences remains unresolved. The universality of the con
trast in nonverbal and verbal skills between E ast A sians arid European whites
suggests, without quite, frroving, genetic roots. Another line of evidence point
ing toward a genetic factor in cognitive ethnic differences is that blacks and
whites differ most on the tests that are the best measures of g, or general in
telligence. O n the other hand, the scores on eien highly g-loaded tests can be
influenced to some extent by changing environmental factors over the course
of a decade or less. Beyond that, some social scientists have challenged the
premise that intelligence tests have the same m eaning for people who live in
different cultural settings or whose forebears hail very different histories.
Nothing seems more fearsom e to many commentators than the possibility
that ethnic and race differences have any genetic component at all. This be
lief is a fundam ental error. Even if the differences between races were entirely
genetic (which they surely are n o t ) , it should make no practical difference in
how individuals deal with each other. The real danger is that the elite wisdom
on ethnic differences that such differences cannot exist will shift to oppo
site an d equally unjustified extrem es. Open and informed discussion is the one
certain way to protect society from the dangers of one extreme view or the
other.
E
thnic differences in m easured co g n itiv e ability h a v e been found
sin ce in telligen ce tests were in vented. T h e battle o v e r the m e an in g
of these d ifferences is largely responsible for to d ay s c on troversy o v e r in
telligen ce testing itself. T h a t m any readers have turned first to this c h a p
ter in d ic a te s how sensitive the issue has becom e.
O u r prim ary purpose is to lay out a set ot statem ents, as precise as the
state of k n o w led ge permits, ab o u t what is currently k n o w n ab out the
size, n atu re, validity, and p ersisten ce of ethnic d ifferences o n m easures
of c o g n i tiv e ability. A secondary purpose is to try to in d u c e clarity in
ways nf th in k in g about eth n ic differences, for d iscussions a b o u t such d if
ferences te n d to run away with them selves, blendin g issues ot fact, t h e
ory, eth ic s, and public policy that need to be separated.
T h e first thing to rem em ber is that the differences a m o n g individn-
Ethnic Differences in ('ognitivt: Ability 271
als are far greater th an th e d ifferen ces b e tw e e n groups. If all the e t h n i c

differences in in telligen c e e v a p o ra te d o v e r n ig h t , m ost of th e in t e ll e c '
tual v a riation in A m e r i c a would e n d u re. T h e re m a in in g in eq u a lity
would still strain the p olitical process, b e c a u se differen ces in c o g n i tiv e
ability are p ro b le m a tic ev e n in e th n ic a lly h o m o g e n e o u s societies. T h e
chap ters in Part 11, look in g o n ly at w hites, sh o u ld h a v e m a d e that clear.
But the p olitic s of c o g n itiv e in equality g e t h o t t e r so m e tim e s to o h o t
to h a n d le w h e n they are a tt a c h e d to the p o litic s of ethnicity. W e b e
lieve that rhe best way to keep the te m p e r a tu re d o w n is to work th ro u g h
the m ain facts carefully an d m eth od ically. T h i s c h a p te r first review s the
e v id e n c e b ea rin g o n eth n ic d ifferen ces in c o g n i t iv e ability, then turns
ro w h eth er rhe d ifferences o rig in a te in g e n e s or in e n v ir o n m e n t s. A t
the c h a p t e r s en d , we sum m arize w h at this k n o w le d g e ab o u r eth n ic d if
ferences m e a n s in p rac tic a l terms.
W e frequently use rhe word ethnic ra th e r th a n race , bec au se ra c e is
such a difficult c o n c e p t to em ploy in the A m e r i c a n c o n t e x t . 111 W h a t
d oes it m e an to be b la c k in A m e r i c a , in racial terms, w h e n the w ord
black (or A f r ic a n - A m e r i c a n ) c a n b e used for p e o p le w hose ancestry is
more E uro pean th a n A fric a n ? H o w are we to classify a person w h o se
parents hail from P a n a m a but w h o se a n c e str y is p re d o m in a n tly A fr ic a n ?
Is he a L a tin o ? A black? T h e rule we follow h ere is to classify people a c
cordin g to the way they classify th e m se lv e s. T h e stu d ies o f b l a c k s or
L a t i n o s or A s i a n s w h o live in A m e r i c a g e n e ra lly d e n o te p eo p le w h o
say they are black, L a tin o , or A s i a n no m o r e , n o less.
Eth n ic N o m e n c l a t u r e
W e w ant ro call people whatever they prefer to be called, in cluding their

preferences for ethn ic labels. A s we write, however, there are n o hard-and-
fasr rules. People from Larin A m e rica wish to be know n according ro th e ir
natio nal origin: C uban- A m erican, M exican- A m erican, Puerto R ican, and
so forth. Hispanic is still the U .S . go v ern m e nts official label, bur la tin o has
gained favor in recent years. W e use L atin o. O p tin g for co m m o n usage and
simplicity, we usually use black instead o f African-Am erican and white
(w hich always refers to non-Latino w hites) instead ot European-A m erican
or Anglo. A m ericans of A sian descent are called A sian when the context
leaves no possibility of confusion w ith A sians liv in g in Asia. W e shift to
the hyphenated versions for everyone w hen it w ould avoid such contusions
or w hen, for stylistic reasons, the hyph en ated versions seem appropriate.
272 The National Context
It w ould b e d isingenuous to leave the racial issue at th at, however,

for race is o ft e n on p e o p le s m inds when they think a b o u t IQ. T h u s we
will ev e n tu a lly c o m m e n t o n co gn itiv e differences a m o n g races as they
m ig h t derive from generic differences, telling a story that is in teresting
but still rid d led with m ore q u estio n s th an answers. T h i s p ro m p ts a se c
o n d p oint to be understood at the outset: T h e re are d ifferen ces betw een
races, and they are the rule, no t the e x cep tion . T h a t assertion may seem
c o n tr o v e r s i a l to som e readers, bur it verges on tautology: R a c e s are by
d e fin itio n groups of people who differ in ch aracteristic ways. I n te lle c
t u a l fash io n h a s dictated th at all differences m ust be d e n ie d e x c e p t the
ab solutely u n d en iab le differences in ap p earan ce, but n o t h in g in biology
says this sh o u ld he so. O n the contrary, race d ifferences are varied and
c o m p l e x an d they m ak e the h u m a n species m ore a d a p ta b le and m ore
interesting.
T H E T E S T E D IN T E L L IG E N C E OF A SIA N S, B L A C K S, A N D
W H IT E S
S o m uch for preliminaries. A nsw ers to c o m m o n ly asked q u e stio n s about

th e eth n ic groups in A m e r ic a follow, b eginning with the basics and
m o v i n g into successively m ore co m p lica ted issues. T h e blac k -w h ite d if
feren ce receiv es hy far rhe m ost detailed e x a m in a tio n bec au se it is the
m o st controversial and h as rhe widest social ram ifications. But the most
c o m m o n q u e stio n we h a v e been asked in recent years h a s not b een ab o u t
b la c k s hut ab out A sian s, as A m e r ic a n s h av e w atched rhe sp e c tac u la r
e c o n o m i c success o f the Pacific rim n atio n s at a d ista n c e an d , c lo ser to
h o m e , b e c o m e acc u sto m ed to seeing A s ia n im m igran t ch ild ren c o l
le c t in g top a c ad e m ic honors in A m e r i c a s schools.
D o A sian s H av e Higher IQ s T han W hites?
Probably yes, if A sian refers to the J a p a n e s e and C h in e s e (arid p erhap s

a l s o K o r e a n s ) , whom we will refer to here as E ast A sia n s. H o w m u ch
h i g h e r is still unclear. R ichard Lynn, a leading sc h olar o f racial and e t h
n ic differen ces, has reviewed the assem bled d ata on o v erall A s i a n IQ in
tw o m ajor articles. In his 1991 review o f the literature, he put rhe m e
d i a n IQ for th e studies of C h in e s e living in H o n g K o n g , S in g a p o r e , T a i
w a n , and C h i n a proper at 110; the m e d ian IQ for the stu d ies o f Ja p a n e s e
liv in g in J a p a n at 103; an d the m ed ian for studies o f East A s ia n s living
in N o r t h A m e r i c a at 1 0 3 .1 But as Lynn ackn o w led g es, these c o m p a r
Ethnic Differeiu'es in Cognitive Ability 273
isons are im p recise because th e I Q s w e re n o t c o r r e c te d fo r the c h a n g e s

that h av e b e e n observed o v e r ti m e in n a t i o n a l I Q a v e r a g e s. I n L y n n s
1987 c o m p ila tio n , where s u c h c o r r e c t i o n s w e re m a d e , t h e m e d ia n s for
b o th C h i n e s e an d J a p a n e s e w ere 1 0 3 . 5 M e a n w h ite A m e r i c a n I Q is t y p
ically e stim a t e d as 101 to 1 0 2 . 4 A d d i t i o n a l s tu d ie s o f C h i n e s e in H o n g
K o n g , c o n d u c te d by J. W. C . C h a n u s in g th e R a v e n s S t a n d a r d Progres-
sive M a tric es, a n o n v erb a l te st t h a t is a n e sp e c ia lly g o o d m e a su re o f g,
found IQ e q u iv a le n ts in the r e g i o n o f 1 1 0 fo r b o t h e l e m e n t a r y and s e c
ondary stu d en ts, com p a red to a b o u t 1 0 0 for w h ite s in H o n g K o n g . 5 A n
oth e r study p o std a tin g L y n n s re v ie w c o m p a r e d r e p r e s e n t a t iv e sa m p le s
of S o u t h K o r e a n and B ritish 9 -y e a r -o ld s a n d fo u n d a n I Q differen ce o f
n ine p o i n t s /
T h e m ost e x te n siv e c o m p i l a t i o n o f E a s t A s i a n c o g n i t i v e p e rfo rm a n c e
in N o r t h A m e r i c a , by P h ilip V e r n o n , i n c l u d e d n o a t t e m p t to strike an
overall e stim a t e for the c u r r e n t g a p b e t w e e n th e races, b u t he did draw
c o n c lu sio n s a b o u t East A s i a n - w h i t e d if f e r e n c e s in v e r b a l a n d n o n v e r
bal abilities, w h ich we will d e s c r i b e l a t e r in t h e c h a p t e r .7 I n ad d itio n to
studies of ahilities, V ernon c o m p i l e d e x t e n s i v e d a t a o n t h e sc h o o lw o rk
ot East A sia n s, d o c u m e n t in g th e ir s u p e r io r p e r f o r m a n c e by a variety of
m easures ra n g in g from g ra d e s to th e a c q u i s i t i o n o f th e P h .D . Is this s u
perior p e rfo rm an c e caused by su p e rio r I Q ? J a m e s F ly n n h a s argu ed t h a t
the real e x p la n a t i o n for the s u c c e s s o f A s i a n - A m e r i c a n s is t h a t they are
o v e ra c h ie v e rs.8 H e also say s t h a t A s i a n - A m e r i c a n s ac tu ally hav e the
sam e n o n v e rb a l in tellig en c e as w h ite s a n d a f r a c tio n a lly low er verbal
in te llig e n c e .l) R ic h a rd L ynn d is a g r e e s a n d c o n c l u d e s f r o m the s a m e d a t a
used by Flynn that there is a n e t h n i c d if f e r e n c e in o v e r a l l I Q as w e ll.10
T h e N L S Y is no t m uch h e l p o n th is issue. T h e s a m p le c o n t a i n e d on ly
forty-rwo E a st A s ia n s ( C h i n e s e , J a p a n e s e , a n d K o r e a n s ) . T h e i r m e a n
IQ was 106, c o m p a re d to t h e E u r o p e a n - A m e r i c a n w h ite m e a n o f 103,
c o n siste n t w ith the e v i d e n c e t h a t E a s t A s i a n s h a v e a h i g h e r IQ t h a n
whites but based on such a s m a ll s a m p l e t h a t n o t m u c h c a n b e m a d e
of it.
T h e in d e te rm in an c y o f t h e d e b a t e is p r e d i c t a b l e . T h e s m a ll e r the IQ
difference, the m ore q u e s t io n a b l e its reality, a n d th is h a s p ro v e d t o be
the c ase w ith the E ast A s i a n - w h i t e d if f e r e n c e . It is d iffic u lt e n o u g h to
find two sets of su b jec ts w ith in a s in g le c ity w h o c a n he c o m p a r e d w i t h
out p ro b le m s of in terp retatio n . C a n o n e c o m p a r e te st s c o r e s o b ta in e d
in d ifferen t years with d iffe re n t te sts f o r s t u d e n t s o f d iffe r e n t a g e s in d if
ferent cultural settings, d r a w n f r o m p o s s i b ly d iffe re n t s o c i o e c o n o m i c
p o p u la tio n s.7 O n e answ er is t h a t it c a n b e d o n e th ro u gh te c h n iq u e s th a t

tak e a d v a n ta g e o f p a tte rn s o b se rv e d ov er m a n y studies. L y n n in p a r ti c
ular h a s re sp o n d e d to e a c h new critique, in so m e cases p ro v id in g new
d ata, in oth e rs refin in g earlier estim ates, a n d always p o i n tin g to th e
striking sim ilarity o f th e results desp ite th e disparity o f th e tests a n d set-
tin g s.11 B u t g iv e n the c o m p le x it ie s o f c ro ssn a tio n a l c o m p a riso n s, the is
sue m u st ev en tu ally b e se ttle d by a sufficient b o dy o f d a ta o b ta in e d from
id e n tic al tests ad m in iste re d to p o p u la tio n s th a t are c o m p a r a b le e x c e p t
for race.
W e h a v e b e e n able to identify th ree such efforts. In on e, sa m p le s o f
A m e r i c a n , B ritish, a n d J a p a n e s e stu d en ts ages 13 to 15 were a d m in i s
tered a test o f ab strac t re a so n in g a n d sp atial relations. T h e A m e r i c a n
a n d B ritish sa m p le s h a d scores w ith in a p o i n t o f the stan dardized m e a n
o f 1 00 o n b o t h the a b strac t a n d sp a tia l relation s c o m p o n e n t s o f th e test;
th e J a p a n e s e a d o le sc e n ts scored 104-5 o n th e test for ab stra c t re a so n in g
an d 11 4 o n th e test for sp a tia l re la tio n s a large difference, a m o u n tin g
to a g ap sim ilar to th e o n e fo u n d by V e r n o n for A s ia n s in A m e r i c a . 12
In a s e c o n d set o f studies, 9-year-olds in J a p a n , H o n g K o n g , a n d
B ritain, d raw n from c o m p a r a b le s o c i o e c o n o m i c p o p u la tio n s, were a d
m in iste re d th e R a v e n s S t a n d a r d Progressive M a tric es. T h e c h ild re n
fro m H o n g K o n g av e ra g e d 113; fro m Ja p a n , 110; a n d from B ritain,
1 00 a g ap o f well o v e r h a l f a sta n d a rd d e v i a tio n b e tw e e n b o t h the
J a p a n e s e a n d H o n g K o n g sam p les a n d a B ritish o n e e q u a te d for age a n d
s o c i o e c o n o m i c sta t u s .13
T h e third set o f studies, d irec ted by H a r o l d S t e v e n s o n , ad m in iste re d
a b attery o f m e n ta l tests to e le m e n t a r y sc h o o l c h ild ren in J a p a n , T a i
w an , a n d M in n e a p o lis, M in n e so ta . T h e key differen ce b e tw e e n this
study a n d th e o th e r tw o w as th a t S t e v e n s o n a n d h is c o lle a g u e s carefully
m a tc h e d th e c h ild re n o n s o c i o e c o n o m i c a n d d e m o g r a p h ic v a r ia b le s.14
N o sig n ifica n t d ifferen ce in o v erall I Q was foun d, a n d S t e v e n s o n a n d
c o lle a g u e s c o n c lu d e d t h a t this study offers n o su p po rt for th e a rg u m e n t
th a t there are differen ces in the g en era l c o g n itiv e fu n c tio n in g o f C h i
nese, Ja p a n e s e , an d A m e r i c a n c h ild r e n . 1151
W h e r e d o es this l e a v e us? T h e p arties in th e d e b a te are o fte n in d i
vid u ally c o n fid en t, a n d you will find in their articles m a n y flat s t a t e
m e n ts th a t a n overall E a st A s i a n - w h i t e I Q difference does, or d oes n o t,
exist. W e will c o n tin u e to h ed g e . H a r o ld S t e v e n s o n an d h is c o llea gu es
h a v e c o n v in c e d us t h a t m a t c h in g su b jec ts by s o c i o e c o n o m i c status c a n
red u ce the differen ce to n e a r zero, b u t h e h a s n o t c o n v in c e d us t h a t
Ethnic Differences in Cognitive Ability 275
Jews, Latinos, and Gender
In the text we focus on three major racial-ethnic groupings whites, East

Asians, and blacks because they have dominated both the research and
contentions regarding intelligence. But whenever the subject of group dif
ferences in IQ comes up, three other questions are sure to be asked: Are
Jews really smarter than everyone else? Where do Latinos fit in, compared
to whites and blacks? W hat about women versus men?
Jews specifically, Ashkenazi Jews of European origins test higher
than any other ethnic group.16 A fair estimate seems to be that Jews in
America and Britain have an overall IQ mean somewhere between a half
and a full standard deviation above the mean, with the source of the dif
ference concentrated in the verbal component. In the NLSY, ninety-eight
whites with IQ scores identified themselves as Jews. T h e N L S Y did not try
to ensure representativeness within ethnic groups other than blacks and
Latinos, so we cannot be sure that the ninety-eight Jews in the sample are
nationally representative. But it is at least worth noting that their mean
IQ was .97 standard deviation above the mean of the rest of the popula
tion and .84 standard deviation above the mean of whites who identified
themselves as Christian. These tests results are matched by analyses o f o c
cupational and scientific attainment by Jews, which consistently show
their disproportionate level of success, usually by orders of magnitude, in
various inventories of scientific and artistic achievement.17
T h e term Latino embraces people with highly disparate cultural her
itages and a wide range of racial stocks. Many of these groups are known
to differ markedly in their social and economic profiles. A dd to that the
problem of possible language difficulties with the tests, and generalizations
about IQ become especially imprecise for Latinos. With that in mind, it
may be said that their test results generally fall about half to one standard
deviation below the national mean. In the NLSY, the disparity with whites
was .93 standard deviation. T his may be compared to an overall average
difference of .84 standard deviation between whites and Mexican-Ameri
cans found in the 1960s on the tests used in the famous Colem an report
(described in Chapter 17).18 We will have more to say about the interpre
tation of Latino scores with regard to possible language bias in Chapter 14.
W hen it comes to gender, the consistent story has been that men and
women have nearly identical mean IQs but that men have a broader distri
bution. In the NLSY, for example, women had a mean on the Armed Forces
Qualification Test (A F Q T ) that was .06 standard deviation lower than the
male mean and a standard deviation that was .11 narrower. For the Wech-
sler Intelligence Scale for Children, the average boy tests 1.8 IQ points
higher than the average girl, and boys have a standard deviation that is .8
point larger than girls.19 T he larger variation among men means that there
are more men than women at either extreme of the IQ distribution.
m a t c h in g by so c io ec o n o m ic status is a g oo d idea if o n e w an ts to know

an e s t i m a t e o t the overall difference betw een East A s ia n s and whites
(we will retu rn to the q u estio n o f m atc h in g by so c io e c o n o m ic status
w h e n we d iscu ss com pariso n s betw een blacks and whites). In our j u d g
m en t, th e b a la n c e o f the ev id en c e supports the p ro p o sitio n that the
overall E a s t A s ia n m ean is higher th an the white m ean. If we had to put
a n u m b e r o n it, three IQ p oints currently most resem bles a consen su s,
te n ta tiv e th o u g h it still is. East A sia n s hav e a greater a d v a n ta g e than
that in a p articular kind o f n o nverbal intelligence, described later in the
chapter.
D o B lac k s Score Differently from Whites on Standardized T ests of

C ogn itive A b ility !
If the s a m p le s are c h osen to be representative of the A m e r i c a n p o p u la

tion, the an sw er has been yes for every know n test of c o g n itiv e ability
that m e e ts basic psychom etric standards of reliability an d v a li d i t y / 1 T h e
answer is a l s o yes for alm ost all of the studies in w hich the black and
white s a m p le s are m atched on som e sp ecial c h a ra c te ristic s....s a m p le s of
ju v e n ile d elin q u en ts, for e x am p le, or of graduate students^ but there
are e x c e p t io n s . T h e im p lication o f this effect ot selectin g the groups to
be c o m p a r e d is discussed later in the chapter. S in c e blac k -w h ite differ
en c es are the ones that strain discourse most severely, we will probe
deep ly in to the evid ence and its m eaning.
H o w L arg e Is the Black-W hite D ifference?
T h e u su al answer to this question is on e standard d e v i a t i o n . 1 In d is

cussing I Q tests, for e x am p le, the black m ean is c o m m o n ly given as 85,
the w h ite m e a n as 100, and the standard d eviatio n as 15. Rut rhe d if
feren ces o b serv ed in any giv en study seldom c on fo rm e x ac tly to one
stan d a rd d e v ia tio n . T h e figure below shows the d istrib u tio n ot the
bla c k -w h ite difference (subsequen tly abbreviated as rhe B /W differ
e n c e ) ex p re sse d in standard deviations, in the A m e r ic a n studies c o n
d u c te d in th is century that h av e reported the IQ m ean s o f a b lac k sam ple
and a w h ite sam p le and m eet basic requirem ents of in terpretability as
d esc rib ed in rhe n o te .121 A total o f 156 studies are represented in rhe
plot, a n d th e m ean R/W difference is 1.08 standard d e v ia tio n s, or ab out
six te e n I Q p o in ts.11'1 T h e spread of results is su bstan tial, how ever, re
flectin g t h e diversity of rhe age o f the subjects, their geog ra p h ic loca-
Ethnic Differences in C.Cognitive Ability 277
O v e rv ie w o f stu d ie s o f r e p o r tin g b la c k - w h ite d if fe r e n c e s in

co g n itiv e t e s t s c o r e s , 1 9 1 8 1 9 9 0
N u m b e r o f stu d ies
20-
M a g n i t u d e o f the b l a c k - w h i t e d i f f e r e n c e in test s c o r e s ,
in sta n d a rd d e v ia tio n s
Sounvi: Slwiev l % 6 ; I V.home and McCiurk 1982; Sattlor 19 8 8 ; Vincent l*WI; l enso n 1985,
IW lv
tion, their b a c k g ro u n d c h a r a c te r istic s, th e tests th e m se lv e s, a n d s a m

pling error.
W h e n we focus o n the stu d ies t h a t m e e t stricter criteria, the ra n g e ot
values tor the B /W difference n arro w s a c c o rd in g ly . T h e ran ge of resu lts
is c onsid erably reduced, for e x a m p l e , f o r stu d ie s th at h a v e t a k e n p la c e
since 1940 (after te stin g s m o st f o r m a t i v e p e r io d ) , o u tsid e the S o u t h
(where the largest B /W d iffe re n ce s are f o u n d ) , with su b je c ts o l d e r t h a n
age 6 (after scores hav e b e c o m e m o r e s t a b l e ) , usin g full test b a t t e r ie s
from on e o f rhe m ajor IQ tests, a n d w ith sta n d a r d d e v i a t io n s r e p o r te d
for th at specific test a d m in is tr a tio n . O f rhe forty-five stu d ies m e e t i n g
these criteria, all but nine o f th e B / W d iffe r e n c e s are c lustered b e t w e e n
.5 and 1.5 stan d a rd d e v iatio n s. T h e m e a n d iffe re n c e was 1.06 s t a n d a r d
d e viatio n s, an d all but e ight o f th e th i r t y - o n e re p o rte d a B /W d if f e r e n c e
greater than .8 stan dard d e v ia tio n .
Still m ore rigorous se le c t io n c r ite r ia d o n o t d im in ish the size o f t h e
gap. For e x a m p le , with tests g i v e n o u t s i d e t h e S o u t h o n ly afte r 1 9 6 0 ,
when p e o p le were in creasin gly s e n s i t iz e d to ra c ia l issues, the n u m b e r ot
studies is red u ced to twenty-four, b u t t h e m e a n d ifferen ce is 1 .1 0 s t a n
dard d e v iatio n s. T h e N L S Y , a d m i n i s t e r e d in 198 0 to by far th e larg e st
s a m p le ( 6 ,5 0 2 whites, 3,022 blacks) in a n atio n al study, found a differ

e n c e of 1.21 standard d ev iatio n s o n the A F Q T . 2'
C o m p u tin g the EVW D iffe ren ce
T he simplest way to com pute rhe B /W difference when lim ited inform a
tio n is available is to take the two means and to compare them using the
standard deviation for rhe reference population, defined in this case as
whites. T his is how the differences in the figure on page 277 showing the
results ot 156 studies were computed. W h e n all the data are available, h o w
ever, as in the case of the N LSY, a more accurate m ethod is available, w hich
takes into account the standard deviations w ith in each po pulation and the
relative size of the samples. The equation is given in the note.1' 51 Unles.s
otherwise specified, all o f the subsequent expressions of rhe R /W differ
ences are based on this m ethod. (For more about the scoring of IQ s in the
N LSY , see A ppendix 2.)
I_____________________________________________________________
A n sw e r in g the qu estion H ow large is the d ifferen ce? in term s of

stan d a rd d e v ia tio n s does n o t conv ey an intuitive sense o f rhe size of the
g ap . A rough-and-ready way o f thinkin g ab out the size of the gap is to
rec all that o n e standard d e v iatio n ab ove and below the m e a n cuts off
th e 8 4 th a n d 16th percentiles o f a n o rm al distribution. In th e case ot
rhe B/W difference o f 1.2 standard d ev iatio n s found in the N L S Y , a
p e rso n with the black m e an was at the 1 1th percentile of the white d is
tribu tio n, a n d a person with the white m ean was at the 91st p ercentile
o f th e black distribution.
A difference of this m agnitude should be thought of in several differ
e n t ways, e a c h with its own im portant im plications. R ec all first that the
A m e r i c a n b lack pop ulatio n num bers more than 30 m illion people. If the
results from the N L S Y apply to the total black p o p u la tio n as of the 1990s,
aro u n d 1 0 0 ,0 0 0 blacks fall in to C la ss 1 o f our five cog n itiv e classes, with
IQ s ot 125 or higher."6 O n e hundred thousand people is a lot o f people.
It should be n o surprise to see (as on e does every day) blacks fu n c tio n
ing at high levels in every intellectually ch allen gin g field.
It is im p o rta n t to und erstan d as well th at a difference of 1.2 standard
d e v i a tio n s m e a n s consid erable overlap in the c o g n itiv e ability d istrib
u t i o n for b lac k s and whites, as show n for the N L S Y p o p u la tio n in the
figu re below. For any equal n u m ber o f blacks and whites, a large pro-
Ethnic D ifferences in Cognitive Ability 279
T h e b la c k an d w h ite IQ d is t r ib u t io n s in th e N L S Y , V e r s io n I
F r e q u e n c y d i s t r ib u t io n s f o r p o p u l a t i o n s o f e q u a l s i z e
Black White
distribution distribution
150
IQ
p ortion h a v e IQs that c an b e m a t c h e d u p . T h i s is th e d is tr i b u ti o n to

k eep in m ind w h en ev er t h in k in g a b o u t in d iv id u a ls .
Rut an ad d itio n a l c o m p l i c a t io n h a s to b e t a k e n in to a c c o u n t : In th e
U n i t e d S ta te s, there are a b o u t six w h i t e s tor ev ery b lac k . T h i s m e a n s
that the IQ o v e rla p o f the tw o p o p u l a t i o n s as th ey ac tu ally e x ist in th e
U n ite d S ta r e s looks very differen t from t h e o v e r l a p in th e figure ju s t
above. T h e n e x t figure p resen ts the s a m e d a t a fro m rhe N L S Y w h e n rhe
d istributions are sh o w n in p r o p o r t i o n to t h e a c t u a l p o p u la t io n o f y o u n g
T h e b la c k an d w h ite I Q d is t r ib u t io n s in th e N L S Y , V e r s io n II
F r e q u e n c y d i s tr ib u t io n s p r o p o r t i o n a l to the
ethnic c o m p o s i t i o n o f the U . S . p o p u l a t i o n
p e o p le re p resen ted in the N L S Y . T h is figure shows why a B /W differ'

e n c e can he p ro b lem atic to A m e r ic a n society as a whole. A t rhe lower
e n d o f the I Q ran ge, there are approxim ately equal n u m b ers of blacks
a n d whites. Rut th ro ugh o u t the upper h alf ot the range, the d isp ro p o r
tio n s h etw een the num ber of whites and blacks at any g iv en IQ level
are huge. T o th e e x te n t that the difference represents an a u th e n tic d if
fe re n c e in c o g n i t iv e functioning, the social c o n se q u e n c e s are p o t e n
tially huge as well. But is the difference au then tic?
A r e the D ifferen ces in Black and White Scores A ttributable to C u ltu ral
B ia s or O th er A rtifacts o f the Test?
A p p e n d i x 5 c o n t a in s a discussion o f the state of know led ge regarding

test bias. H e r e , we shall quickly review the basic findings regarding
b lac k s, w ith o u t rep eatin g the citatio n s in A p p e n d ix 5, w hich we urge
you to read.
EXTERNAL E v id e n c e of B i a s . Tests are used to predict th in g s m ost

c o m m o n ly , to p red ic t p erform ance in school or on the job. C h a p t e r 3
d isc u ssed th is issue in detail. You will recall that the ability ot a test to
p re d ic t is k n o w n as its validity. A test with high validity predicts a c
cu rately; a test w ith poor validity m akes m any m istakes. N o w suppose
th at a tests v a lid ity differs for the m em bers o f two groups. T o use a c o n
c rete e x a m p le : T h e S A T is used as a tool in college ad m issio n s because
it h a s a c e rtain validity in predictin g college p erform ance. It the S A T is
b ia se d ag a in st blacks, ir will underpredict their college p erform ance. It
rests were biased in this way, blacks as a group would d o bette r in c o l
lege th a n th e ad m issio n s office ex p ected based just o n their S A T s. h
w ou ld be as if the test underestim ated the true S A T score ot the blacks,
so th e natural rem edy tor this kind ot bias would be to c o m p e n s a te the
b lack a p p lic a n ts by, tor e xam p le, ad d ing the ap p rop riate n u m b er ot
p o i n t s o n to th e ir scores.
P re d ic tiv e bias c a n work in an o th er way, as when the test is simply
less reliable t h a t is, less a c c u ra te tor blacks th an tor whites. S u p p o se
a test used to se le c t police sergeants is m ore accurate in p red ictin g rhe
p e r fo r m a n c e of w h ite c an d id a tes w ho becom e sergeants th a n in pre
d ic t i n g the p e r fo rm a n c e ot black sergeants. It d o e sn t u n d erp red ict for
b lac k s, but rath er fails to predict at all (or predicts less accurately). In
th e se cases, th e natural rem edy would he to give less w eight to rhe test
sc o re s of b l a c k s t h a n to those o f whites.
T h e key c o n c e p t for bo th ty p es o f b ia s is t h e sa m e : A test biased a g ain st

blacks does not [rredict black perform ance in the real world in the sam e w ay
that it predicts white perform ance in the real w orld . T h e e v id e n c e of b ia s is
external in the sense that it s h o w s up in d iffe r i n g v a lid ities for b la c k s a n d
whites. E x tern al e v id e n c e ot h ia s h a s b e e n s o u g h t in hundreds o f s t u d '
ies. It has been e v a lu a ted r e la tiv e to p e r f o r m a n c e in elem en tary s c h o o l ,
in second ary sc h o o l, in the u n iversity, in t h e a r m e d forces, in u n sk illed
an d skilled jo b s, in the p ro fe ssio n s. O v e r w h e l m i n g ly , the e v i d e n c e is
th at rhe m ajo r stan dardized t e s ts u se d to h e l p m a k e sch ool a n d j o b d e
cisio n s1* ' 1 do n o t u n d erp red iet b lac k p e r f o r m a n c e , n o r does the e x p e r t
co m m u n ity find any oth e r g e n e r a l o r s y s t e m a t i c difference in th e p re
dictive ac c u rac y ot tests tor b l a c k s a n d w h i t e s . 12 '1
iNTKRNAI. EviDKNC :ii OF B i a s . P r e d ic tiv e v a lid it y is th e u ltim a te c r it e

rio n for bias, because it in v o lv e s th e p r o o f of th e p u d d in g for a n y test.
B u t a lth o u g h p r e d ic tiv e v a lid it y is in a t e c h n i c a l sense th e d e c isiv e is
sue, ou r im p re ssio n tro m t a lk in g a b o u t t h is issue w it h colle ag ue s a n d
friends is th a t o th e r types ot p o t e n t ia l b ia s lo o m larger in th e ir im a g i
n a tio n s : th e m a n y th in g s t h a t are p u t u n d e r t h e u m b r e lla label o f c u l
tu ral b ia s.
T h e most c o m m o n c h a rg e s o f c u lt u r a l b i a s in v o lv e rhe p u ta tiv e c u l
tural loadin g of item s in a test. H ero is a n S A T an a lo g y item th at h a s
becom e fam o u s as an e x a m p l e ot c u lt u r a l bias:
R U N N E R :M A R A T H O N
( A ) e n v o y :e m b a s s y
(B ) m a r ty n m a ssa c r e
( C ) oa rsm a n :re g a tta
(D ) referee:tou rn am en t
(E ) h o r s e :s t a h ! e
T h e answ er is o a r s m a n :r c g a t t a fairly e a sy it you know w hat b o t h a

m a ra th o n an d a regatta are, a m a t t e r ot g u e s s w o r k otherwise. H o w w o u ld
a black y ou n gster from the in n e r city e v e r h a v e h e ard ot a regatta ? M a n y
view such item s as proof t h a t th e tests m u s t be biased against p e o p l e
from d isa d v a n ta g e d b a c k g ro u n d s. C l e a r l y , w rites a critic o f r e stin g ,
citin g this e x a m p le , this ite m d o e s n o t m e a s u r e stu d e n ts a p t i t u d e o r
logical re aso n in g ability, b u t k n o w l e d g e o f u p p er-m id d le-class r e c r e a
tional ac tiv ity .1211In the l a n g u a g e o f p s y c h o m e t r i c s , this is called in ternal
e v id e n c e o t bias, as contrasted with the external e v id e n c e of d iffe re n

tial p re d ic tio n .
T h e h y p o th e s is o f bias again lends itself to direct e x a m in a tio n . In ef
fect, th e S A T critic is saying th at culturally loaded items are p ro d u c in g
at least s o m e o f the B/W difference. G e t rid o f such item s, an d the gap
will narrow. Is he correct.' W h e n we look at the results for item s that
have a n s w e rs su c h as o a rsm a n :re g a tta and the results for item s that
seem to he e m p ty of any cultural in form ation (rep ea tin g a s e q u e n c e ot
num bers, fo r ex am p le), are there any differen ces?"0' A r e differen ces in
group test s c o r e s con cen trated a m o n g certain items?
T h e t e c h n i c a l literature is again clear. In study after study ol the lead
ing tests, th e hypothesis that the B /W difference is caused by q u estio n s
with c u lt u r a l c o n te n t has b een c o n trad ic ted by the f a c t s . 1 Item s that
the a v e r a g e w hite test taker finds easy relative to other items, the a v e r
age b lac k te s t taker does too; the sam e is true tor items th at the average
white an d b l a c k find difficult. Inasm uch as whites and blacks h av e d if
ferent o v e r a ll scores on the average, it follows that a sm aller prop ortion
of blacks g e t right answers for either easy or hard items, hut the order o f
difficulty is virtually the sam e in eac h racial group. For group s that h av e
special l a n g u a g e consid erations L atin os and A m e r ic a n Indians, fo re x -
am p le s o m e internal ev id en c e o f bias h a s been found, unless English
is their n a t i v e lan g u ag e .1
S t u d ie s c o m p a r in g blacks a n d whites on various kinds o f IQ tests find
that rhe B / W difference is no t created by items that ask a b o u t regattas
or w h o w ro te Ham let, or any o f the other sim ilar e x a m p le s cite d in c rit
icisms of tests. H ow can this be? T h e e x p la n a tio n is c o m p lic a te d an d
goes d e e p in to the reasons why a test item is g o o d or b a d " in m e a
suring in te llig e n c e . Here, we restrict ourselves to the c o n c lu sio n ; The
B/W difference is wider on items that appear to he culturally neutral than on
items that ap p ear to he culturally loaded. We italicize this p o in t bec au se it
is b o th so well established em pirically yet c om es as su ch a surprise to
most p e o p le w h o are new to this topic. W e will elab o rate o n this fin d
ing later in th e chapter. In any case, there is n o longer an im p o rta n t
te c h n ica l d e b a t e over the co n c lu sio n that the cultural c o n t e n t o f test
items is n o t th e cause o f group differences in scores.
M o t iv a t io n to T ry . S u p p o s e that the nature ot cultural hias d oes not

lie in p r e d ic t iv e validity or in the c o n te n t of the items but in w h at m ight
be c a lle d t e s t w illingness. A typical black youngster, it is hypothesized,
c o m e s to such tests with a m in d se t d if f e r e n t from th e w hite s u b j e c t s. H e

is less attun ed to testing situ atio n s ( f r o m o n e p o i n t of v ie w ), or less i n
clined to put up with su c h n o n s e n s e ( f r o m a n o t h e r ) . Perhaps he ju st
d o e s n t give a d a m n , since he h as n o h o p e s o f g o i n g to c o lle g e or o t h e r
wise b en efitin g from a goo d test score. P e r h a p s h e figures t h a t the test is
biased aga in st h im anyway, so w h a t s th e p o i n t . P e rh a p s he consc io u sly
refuses to put ou t his best effort b e c a u s e o f t h e p e e r pressures ag a in st a c t
ing w h ite in so m e inner-ciry sc h o o ls.
T h e studies that h av e a tt e m p te d t o m e a s u r e m o t iv a t i o n in such s i t
uations h a v e generally foun d th at b l a c k s are at least as m o tiv a te d as
w h ite s.*1 But th ese are n o t wholly c o n v i n c i n g , for why s h o u l d n t th e
m easures of m o t iv a t i o n be just as i n a c c u r a t e as the m easu res of c o g n i
tive ability are alleged to b e? A n a l y s is o f i n t e r n a l c h arac teristics o f th e
tests o n c e a g a in offers the best l e v e ra g e in e x a m i n i n g this broad h y
p othesis. Two sets o f d ata seem e sp e c ia lly p e r t in e n t .
T h e first in v o lv e s the digit span s u b te s t, p a r t of rhe widely used W ech -
sler in tellig en c e tests. It h as two form s: fo rw a rd digit span, in which th e
subject tries to repeat a s e q u e n c e of n u m b e r s in the order read to h im ,
an d backward digit span, in w hich th e s u b j e c t tries to rep eat t h e seq u en c e
cif n um bers backw ard. T h e test is s i m p l e in c o n c e p t , uses n um bers th at
are fam iliar to everyone, a n d calls o n n o c u lt u r a l in form ation besides
k n o w in g num bers. T h e digit sp an is e s p e c ia l l y in fo rm a tiv e regarding test
m o tiv a tio n n o t just bec au se of the low c u lt u r a l l o a d in g o f t h e items but
because the b a ck w a rd form is twice a s g - l o a d e d as the forward form, it is
a m uch bette r m easu re of g eneral i n t e l l i g e n c e . T h e reason is that revers
ing rhe n u m b ers is m en tally m ore d e m a n d i n g t h a n rep eatin g them in
the heard order, as readers c a n d e t e r m i n e for t h e m s e lv e s by a little self-
testing.
T h e two parts of the subrest h a v e id e n t ic a l c o n te n t. T h e y oc c u r
at the sam e tim e du ring th e test. E a c h s u b j e c t d o e s bo th. Rut in m o st
studies the blac k -w h ite d ifferen ce is a b o u t tw ice as great o n backw ard
digits as on forward d ig its.141 T h e q u e s t i o n arises: H o w c an lack ot
m o tiv a tio n (o r test w illin gn ess or a n y o t h e r e x p l a n a t i o n ot that typ e)
e x p la in the d ifferen ce in p e r fo r m a n c e o n t h e tw o p a rts of t h e sam e s u b
test?31
A sim ilar q u e stio n arises from w o rk o n r e a c t i o n tim e. S e v e ra l psy-
c h o m e tric ia n s, led by A r th u r J e n s e n , h a v e b e e n e x p lo r in g the u n d e rly
ing natu re o f g by hyp othesizing t h a t n e u r o l o g i c p ro c e ssin g speed is
im p licated , a k in to the speed of th e m i c r o p r o c e s s o r in a com puter.
S m a r te r p e o p le p ro c e ss faster than less sm art people. T h e strategy for

testing th e h y p o th e s is is to give p eop le extrem ely sim p le c o g n itiv e
tasks so s im p le t h a t no con sc io u s th ou g h t is in volved an d to use p re
cise t i m i n g m e t h o d s to d eterm in e how fast different p eo p le perform
these s im p le tasks. O n e c o m m o n ly used ap paratus in v o lv e s a c o n so le
with a s e m ic ir c le o f eigh t lights, each with a bu tton n e x t to it. In rhe mid-
die o f the c o n s o l e is the h o m e button. A t the b e g in n in g ot ea c h trial,
the s u b je c t is d e p r e ssin g the h om e b u tto n with his finger. O n e of the
lights in th e se m ic ir c le goes on. T h e su b jec t m oves his finger to the b u r
ton c lo se st to th e light, w hich turns it oft. T h e re are m ore c o m p lic a te d
versions of th e task (th ree lights go on, an d the subject m o v e s to the on e
that is fa rth e st from the other two, for e x a m p le ), but n o n e requires m u ch
thought, a n d e v e ry b o d y gets every trial right." T h e s u b j e c t s response
speed is b r o k e n in to two m easurem ents: reaction rime ( R T ) , the tim e it
rakes the s u b je c t to lift his finger from the h o m e bu tto n after a target light
goes o n , a n d m o v e m e n t time ( M T ) , the time it takes to m o v e the finger
from just a b o v e the h o m e bu tton to the target b u tto n .1511
Fran cis G a l t o n in the n in e te e n th century believed th a t r e a c tio n time
is a s s o c ia te d w ith in telligen ce but could not prove it. H e was o n rhe
right track after all. In m od ern studies, reaction time is correlated with
the results fro m full-scale IQ tests; e v e n m ore specifically, it is correlated
with th e g fa c to r in I Q tests in som e studies, only with the g factor,*'
M o v e m e n t tim e is m u c h less correlated with IQ or with g . is T h i s m ak es
sense: M o s t of th e c o g n itiv e processing h as been c o m p le te d by the time
the finger l e a v e s th e h o m e button; the rest is mostly a fu n c tio n o f sm all
m otor skills.
R e s e a r c h on re a c tio n tim e is d o in g m u ch to a d v a n c e o ur u n d e r
stan d in g o f the biolo g ic al basis ot g. For our purposes here, however, it
also offers a test o f th e m o tiv atio n hypothesis: T h e c o n siste n t result of
m any stu d ie s is t h a t white reaction time is faster th an black reaction
time, but b la c k m o v e m e n t tim e is faster th a n white m o v e m e n t t i m e . w
O n e c a n im a g i n e a n u n m o tiv a te d subject w ho thinks the re a c tio n time
test is a w a ste o f tim e a n d d oes n o t try very hard. But th e level o f m o t i
v a tio n , w h a t e v e r it m ay be, seem s likely to be the sam e for th e m easures
of R T a n d M T . T h e q u e stio n arises: H ow c a n on e be u n m o tiv a te d to do
well d u r in g o n e sp lit-se c o n d o f a test but apparently m o tiv a te d during
the n e x t s p li t - s e c o n d ? R esults of this sort argue ag a in st easy e x p l a n a
tions t h a t a p p e a l to d ifferences in m o tiv a tio n as e x p la n a to ry ot the R/W
difference.
Ethnic Differences in C ognitive Ability 285
U n if o r m Ba c k g ro u n d B ia s . O t h e r kin ds of b ia s discussed in
A p p e n d i x 5 in clu d e the possibility t h a t b l a c k s h a v e less access to
c o a c h in g th a n whites, less e x p e r ie n c e w i t h te sts (less testw isen ess ),
poorer u n d e rsta n d in g of standard E n g l i s h , a n d t h a t th eir p erform ance
is affected by w hite exam iners. E a c h of th e s e h y p o t h e s e s has been
in vestigated, for m a n y tests, u nd er m a n y c o n d i t i o n s . N o n e has been
sustained. In short, the testable h y p o t h e s e s h a v e led toward the
c o n c lu sio n th a t c o g n itiv e ability te sts a r e n o t b ia se d a g a in st blacks.
T h is leaves o n e final hypothesis r e g a r d i n g c u lt u r a l b ia s t h a t does not
lend itself to e m p iric al e v a lu a tio n , at least n o r directly.
S u p p o se o ur society is so steep ed in rhe c o n d i t i o n s t h a t produce test
bias that p eop le in d isa d v a n ta g e d g r o u p s u n d e r s c o r e th eir c o g n itiv e ab il
ities on all the item s on tests, th e re b y h i d i n g th e in tern al evid ence o f
bias. At rhe s a m e tim e and for the s a m e r e a s o n s , they u n d erp ertorm in
school a n d on the jo b in relation to t h e ir true a b ilitie s, thereby hiding
the extern a l e v id e n c e . In other w ord s, t h e te sts m ay b e biased against
d isa d v a n ta g e d groups, but rhe trac es o f b i a s are in v isib le because the
bias p erm ea tes all areas o f the g r o u p s p e r f o r m a n c e . A cco rdingly, it
would be as useless to look for e v i d e n c e o f test bias as it would be lor
E in ste in s im aginary person trav elin g n e a r t h e s p e e d of ligh t to try to d e
term ine w h eth er tim e has slowed. E i n s t e i n s t r a v e le r h a s n o clock that
exists in d e p e n d e n t of his sp ac e-rim e c o n t e x t . In asse ssin g test bias, we
would h a v e n o test or criterion m e a su re t h a t e x i s t s in d e p e n d e n t ot this
culture an d its history. T h is form of b ias w o u l d p e r v a d e everything.
T o so m e readers, rhe h yp oth esis will s e e m so p la u s ib le rhat it is self-
evid ently correct. Before d ec id in g t h a t th is m u st be the e x p la n a tio n tor
group d ifferen ces in test scores, h o w e v e r, a few p r o b l e m s m ust be o v e r
com e. First, th e c o m m e n t s ab ou t t h e d ig i t s p a n a n d re a c tio n time re
sults apply here as well. H ow c a n th is u n i f o r m b a c k g r o u n d bias suppress
black reac tio n tim e but not the m o v e m e n t t i m e ? H o w c a n it suppress
p erform ance o n backw ard digit sp a n m o r e t h a n fo rw ard d ig it span? S e c
on d, the h y p o th e sis implies that m a n y ot t h e p e r f o r m a n c e yardsticks in
rhe society at large are no t only b ia se d , th e y are all so s im ila r in the d e
gree to w h ich they distort the tru th in e v e r y o c c u p a t i o n , every type
of e d u c a tio n a l in stitution, every a c h i e v e m e n t m e a su r e , every perfor
m a n c e m easu re th at n o d ifferen tial d i s t o r t i o n is p ic k e d u p by the data.
Is this plau sible?
It is n o t g o o d en o u g h to a c c ep t w i t h o u t q u e s t i o n t h a t a general b a c k
ground r a d i a t io n o f bias, uniform a n d u b i q u i t o u s , e x p l a i n s away black
a n d white differences in test scores and p erform ance m easures. T h e h y

p o th esis m ight, in theory, he tm e. But giv en the degree to w h ich ev e ry
day exp erien ce suggests rhar rhe en v iro n m en t c o n fro n tin g b lac k s in
different sectors of A m e r ic a n life is not uniformly hostile a n d giv en the
c o n siste n c y in results from a wide variety of c og n itiv e m easures, a s s u m
in g that the hypothesis is true represents a considerably longer leap of
fa ith th an the m u ch more lim ited a ssu m p tion t h a t race prejudice is still
a factor in A m e r ic a n life. In the m atter of rest bias, this brings us to the
frontier o f knowledge.
A re the D ifferences in O verall Black and White Test S c are s A ttribu table
to D ifferences in Socioeconom ic S ta tu s!
T h i s q uestio n has two different answers d e p e n d in g on how the quest ion

is u nderstood, and confusion is ram pant. We will take up rhe two a n
swers and their associated rationales separately:
F ir s t v e rsio n : If you extract the effects of socioeconomic class, what hap
pens to the overall magnitude o f the B /W difference? Blacks are d isp ro p o r
tionately in the lower so c io e c o n o m ic classes, anti so c io e c o n o m i c class
is k now n to he associated with IQ. T h erefore, m any p e o p le suggest, part
of whar appears to he an ethnic difference in IQ scores is actu ally a s o
c io e c o n o m ic difference.
T h e answer to this version ot the question is that rhe size of rhe gap
shrinks when so c io ec o n o m ic status is statistically ex tracted . T h e N L S Y
g iv es a result typical of such analyses. T h e B/W difference in rhe N L S Y
is 1.21. In a regression e q u atio n in which both race an d s o c io e c o n o m ic
b ack gro u n d are entered, the difference between whites and blacks
shrinks to .76 standard d e v ia tio n .1401 S o c io e c o n o m ic status e x p la in s 37
p erc en t of rhe original B/W difference. T h is relationship is in line wirh
the results from many other stu dies.14"
T h e difficulty com es in interpreting what it m ean s ro c o n t r o l for
s o c io e c o n o m ic status. M a tc h in g rhe status of the groups is usually j u s
tified on the grounds that the scores p eop le earn are c au sed to so m e e x
te n t by their so c io e c o n o m ic status, so if we want to see rhe real or
a u t h e n t ic difference between them, the c on trib u tion of status must
be e x c lu d e d .142' T h e trouble is that so c io e c o n o m ic status is also a result
of c o g n itiv e ability, as p eop le of high and low c o g n itiv e ability m o v e to
c orresp on din g ly high and low places in the s o c io e c o n o m ic c o n tin u u m .
T h e reaso n that parents h av e h igh or low s o c io e c o n o m ic status is in part
Ethnic Differences in (.ôpiitiw Ability 287
;i fu n c tio n o f rheir intelligence, an d their in tellig en c e also affects the

IQ of the ch ild ren via both gen es a n d e n v ir o n m e n t .
B ec au se of these relationships, c o n t r o ll i n g for so c io e c o n o m ic s t a
tus in racial c o m p a riso n s is g u a ra n te e d to red uce IQ differences in the
sam e way that c h o o sin g black and w h ite s a m p le s from a school for th e
in tellectually gifted is g u ara n teed to red u ce IQ differences ( a ssu m in g
race-blind a d m issio n s stan d a rd s). B u t the r e m a in in g difference is n o t
necessarily m o re real or a u th e n tic th a n the o n e we start with. T h is s e e m s
to be a hard p o in t to grasp, ju d g in g from the pervasiven ess of c o n t r o l
ling for s o c i o e c o n o m i c status in the s o c io lo g ic a l literature on e th n ic d i f
ferences. But su p p o se we were ask in g w h e th e r b lac k s and whites differed
in sprin ting sp eed , and c on trolled for varsity s ta t u s by ex am in in g o n ly
ath letes on the track team s in D iv isio n 1 co lle g e s. Blacks would p r o b a
bly still sprint faster than whites on th e av e rag e , but it would he a s m a lle r
difference th a n in the p o p u la tio n at large. Is there any sense in w h ic h
this sm aller differen ce would he a m ore a c c u r a te measure (if the racial
d ifference in sp rin tin g ability th a n the larger difference in the g e n e ra l
p op u la tio n ? W e pose that as an in terestin g th eo retical issue. In term s of
num bers, a re a so n a b le rule of rh u m b is that c o n tro llin g for s o c i o e c o
nom ic status reduces the o v e ra ll B /W d ifferen ce by about a third.
S e c o n d v e r s i o n : A.s blacks m o iv up the socioeconomic ladder, do the d if
ferences with whites o f similar socioeconomic status diminish! T h e first v e r
sio n o f the S E S / 1 Q questio n referred to the o v e ra ll score of a p o p u la tio n
of blacks and whites. T h e sec o n d version c o n c e n tr a te s on the R/W d if
ference w ithin s o c io e c o n o m ic classes. T h e ration ale goes like this:
Blacks score lower on average b e c au se they are so c io ec o n o m ica lly at a
d isa d v a n ta g e in our society. T h i s d is a d v a n t a g e should m ost seriously
h a n d ic a p the ch ild ren o f b lac k s in the tower so c io e c o n o m ic classes, w h o
suffer from g reater barriers to e d u c a tio n a n d o c c u p a tio n a l a d v a n c e m e n t
th an do the c h ild r e n of blacks in rhe m id d le and upper classes. As b l a c k s
a d v a n c e up rhe so c io e c o n o m i c ladder, their ch ild ren , less e x p o se d to
these e n v ir o n m e n t a l deficits, will d o b e tte r an d , by extension, clo se the
g ap with w hite c h ild ren of their class.
T h is e x p e c t a t io n is n o t b o rn e o u t by th e d ata. A good way to illu s
trate this is by usin g our p arental S E S in dex and m a tc h in g it a g a in st the
m e an IQ score, as show n in th e figure below. I Q scores in crease w ith
e c o n o m i c status for both races. Bur as the figure shows, the m a g n it u d e
o f the B / W d ifferen ce in stan d a rd d e v i a t io n s d o e s not decrease. I n d e e d ,
it gets larger as p eo p le m o v e up from rhe very b o tto m of the s o c io e c o -
B la c k I Q s c o r e s g o u p w ith so c io e c o n o m ic sta tu s , b u t th e b lack -

w h ite d iffe re n c e d o es n o t sh rin k
B lac k /w h ite IQ difference, B lack mean [Q,

in standard deviations in IQ points
1 .2 - -120
- 110
B /W difference - 100
(left-hand scale)
B lack mean IQ
(right-hand scale)
2d 3d 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th

Parental S E S , by decile
n o m ic ladder. T h e p attern show n in the figure is co n sisten t with m any

other m a j o r studies, e x c e p t that the gap flattens out. In o th e r studies,
the g a p h a s c o n tin u e d to increase throughout the ran ge of socioeco-
41
n o m ic status.
H ow D o A fric a n -A m e ric a n s C o m p are with Blacks in A fric a on

C ogn itive T e s t s
T h is q u e s t io n o fte n arises in the c o n te x t of black-w hite c o m p a riso n s in

A m e r i c a , th e th o u g h t b ein g that the A fric an black p o p u la tio n has not
been s u b j e c t e d to the h istorica l legacy o f A m e ric a n black slavery and
d is c r i m i n a ti o n and m ig h t therefore h av e higher scores. M a n y studies o f
A f r ic a n s tu d e n ts in prim ary an d secondary schools, in both urban and
rural areas, h a v e in clu d ed co g n itiv e ability tests. A s in the U n ite d
S ta te s, it h a s b e e n d e m o n stra te d in A frica that the sam e test items that
d isc r im in a te b est a m o n g blacks d iscrim inate best a m o n g w hites and that
the s a m e fa c to rs th a t depress white scores (for ex a m p le , c o m in g from a
rural a r e a ) d e p r e ss b la c k scores. T h e predictive validity o f tests for a c a
d em ic a n d j o b p e r fo rm a n c e seem s to be ab ou t the sam e. In general, the
p sych om etric p ro p erties o f the s ta n d a r d iz e d te sts a r e the sam e for b l a c k s

living in A fric a as for A m e r ic a n b l a c k s .44
It has b e e n m o re difficult to a s s e m b l e d a t a orv th e score o f the aver-
age A fr ic a n b la c k th an on e would e x p e c t , g i v e n th e e x te n s iv e n e s s o f
the test e x p e rie n c e in A frica. In th e s a m e r e v i e w o f the literature t h a t
perm itted the a b o v e generalizations, fo r e x a m p l e a thirty-page a rtic le
followed by a bib liogra p h y o f m ore t h a n 2 0 0 t i t le s not a sin g le a v e r
age is rep orted .41 O n e reason for th is r e l u c t a n c e t o discuss a v e r a g e s is
that blacks in A fric a , includ ing u rb a n iz ed b l a c k s with secon d ary e d u
cations, h av e o b ta in e d extrem ely low sc o r e s . R i c h a r d Lynn w as ab le to
assem ble e le v e n studies in his 1991 r e v i e w of th e literature. H e e s t i
m ated the m e d ia n b lack A fric an I Q t o be 7 5 , a p p r o x im a t e ly 1.7 s t a n
dard d e v ia tio n s below the U . S . o v e ra ll p o p u l a t i o n average, a b o u t te n
points lower t h a n the current figure for A m e r i c a n b l a c k s .4(> W h e r e o t h e r
data are a v a ila b le , the estim ates o f th e b l a c k A f r i c a n IQ fall at least th a t
low and, in so m e in stances, ev en lo w er.4' T h e I Q o f co lo u red stu d e n ts
in S o u t h A fr ic a o f m ixed racial b a c k g r o u n d h a s been fou n d t o be
similar to that o f A m e r ic a n blacks.48
In sum m ary: A fric a n blacks are, o n a v e r a g e , substantially b elo w
A f r ic a n - A m e r i c a n s in in telligen ce te s t sc o r e s . P sych o m etrically, th e re
is little reason to think that these results m e a n a n y t h in g different a b o u t
cog n itiv e fu n c tio n in g th an they m e a n in n o n - A f r i c a n p o p u la tio n s. For
our purposes, th e m a in p oint is th at th e h y p o t h e s i s ab o u t the sp ec ial c i r
c u m sta n c e s o f A m e r i c a n b lac k s d e p r e s s in g t h e ir test scores is not s u b
stan tiated by th e A fric an data.
Is the D ifference in B lack an d W hite T e st S c o r e s D im inish ing?
T h e answ er is yes w ith (as usual) s o m e q u a l i f i c a t i o n s .
IQ T est D a t a . T h e m ost straigh tforw ard w ay to answ er the q u e s t io n

would be to e x a m in e the repeated a d m i n i s t r a t i o n s o f the s a m e IQ tests
to c o m p a ra b le p o p u la tio n s, but large, n a t i o n a l l y r e p re se n ta tiv e IQ d a t a
are n o t p ro d u c e d every year (or e v e n e v e r y d e c a d e ) . T h e N L S Y d a ta are
a m o n g th e m o st rec en t for a you n g a d u l t p o p u l a t i o n , and they h a v e a
B /W differen ce toward the h igh e n d o f t h e r a n g e . T h e only p o s t - 1 9 8 0
study rep ortin g b la c k and white a d u l t a v e r a g e s t h a t we h a v e fo u n d is
the ren o rm in g o f the W echsler A d u l t I n t e l l i g e n c e S c a le ( W A I S - R ) in
1981 in w h ic h the difference b e t w e e n h l a c k s a n d a sam p le of w h ites
(th a t a p p a r e n tly d id not try to discrim inate between L a tin o and A n g lo

w hites) w as 1.0 s ta n d a rd d e v i a t io n . 4 0
R e c e n t d a t a o n ch ild ren tell opposite stories. In a review ot IQ tests
ot c h il d r e n c o n d u c t e d sin ce 1980, K e n V incent o f the U n iv ersity
of H o u s t o n rep orts results for four n o rm ative studies th at show ed
a B / W d iffe re n c e o f only seven IQ points tor the R a v e n s S ta n d a r d Pro
gressive M a t r ic e s ( S P M ) and the K a u fm a n A sse ssm e n t Battery for C h i l
d ren ( K - A B C ) . 0 Tw o other studies involving the S ta n fo r d - B in e t IV
found B / W d iffe re n ce s of ten points tor children ages 7 to 11 an d twelve
p o in ts for c h il d r e n ages 2 to 6 .1,11 Q ualific atio n s m u st be a tta c h e d to
these fin d in g s. T h e B/W difference on the K - A B C n o rm a tiv e sam p le
has in p a r ti c u l a r b e e n subjected to reexam in atio n su gg estin g th at rhe
d im in ish e d gap largely reflected psychom etric an d statistical artifacts.
N o n e t h e l e s s , the d a ta on children that Vincent reviews may be read as
e n c o u ra g in g . T h e m ost im pressive of the findings is the c o m p a ra tiv e ly
sm all B / W d iffe re n c e of only seven IQ points on the R a v e n s S P M a d
m in istered to 12-year-olds. T h is finding correspon ds to J e n s e n s 1992
study of b lac k a n d white children in an upper-m iddle-class setting in
w hich th e d iffe re n c e on the R a v e n s S P M was similarly below the norm
(a d e fic it c o r r e sp o n d in g to ten IQ p o in ts ).1'
In c o n t r a s t to V i n c e n t s optim istic conclusions, rhe N L S Y show s a
grow ing rath er t h a n a shrinkin g gap in rhe n e x t g e n e ra tio n ot blacks
and w h ites. A s d iscussed in C h a p t e r 15, the B/W differen ce betw een
N L S Y c h il d r e n is currently wider than the B /W d ifferen ce sep arating
their m o th e rs.
A c a d e m ic :A p t it i jdk a n d A c h ie v e m e n t T e s t s . T h e m ost e x te n siv e e v

id en c e o f a n a r r o w in g black-white gap c a n be found in longitu dinal d ata
from rhe N a t i o n a l A sse ssm e n t of E d u cation al Progress ( N A E P ) , the
A m e r i c a n C o l l e g e T estin g ( A C T ) e x am in a tio n , the S A T , a c o m p a riso n
of the 1 972 a n d 1 9 8 0 n atio n al h igh school surveys, a n d so m e state-level
a c h i e v e m e n t test d ata. W e review t h e N A E P and the S A T here, an d o t h
ers ( w h ic h tell th e sam e story) in A p p e n d ix 5.
T h e N a t i o n a l A s s e s s m e n t ot E d ucation al Progress is an o n g o in g p r o
gram. s p o n s o r e d by the federal g o v ern m en t to m o n ito r the a c a d e m ic
a c h i e v e m e n t o f the n a t i o n s youth. It began in 1969, perio dically te st
ing 9-, 1 3-, an d 17-year-olds in science, m ath em atic s, reading, a n d w rit
ing in n a t i o n a l l y rep resen tativ e sam ples. T h e table below show s the
c h a n g e s from th e first round o f testing in 1 9 6 9 - 1 9 7 3 to the d a ta for
R e d u c t io n s in th e B la c k - W h it e D i f f e r e n c e on th e
N a t io n a l A s s e s s m e n t o f E d u c a t i o n a l P ro g re ss
W hite-Black D iffe re n c e ) in Change

Standard D ev iatio n s*
1969-1973 1990
9 -year-olds
Scien ce 1.14 .8 4 -.3 0
M ath .70 .5 4 -.1 6
R eading .88 .7 0 -.1 8
Average .91 .6 9 -.2 1
13-year-olds
Science .96 .7 6 -.2 0
M ath .92 .5 4 -.3 8
R eading .78 .4 0 -.3 8
Average .8 9 .5 7 -.3 2
17-year-olds
Science 1.08 .9 6 -.1 2
M a th .80 .42 -.3 8
R eadin g 1.04 .6 0 -.4 4
Average .9 7 .6 6 - .3 1
Overall average .92 .64 -.2 8
Snurcv: N ational (.'enter tor Education S t a ti s ti c * . 1 9 9 I K
1The com pulations assume a standard d e v ia tio n oi 50.
1990, ex p ressed in stan dard d e v ia tio n s. T h e C h a n g e c olu m n gives the

earlier B / W d ifferen ce minus the l a te r B / W d ifferen ce, which is n e g a
tive if the gap is closing. T h e fourth c o m p o n e n t o f the N A E P , a writing
test, was in tro d u c ed only in 1984, w ith r e p l i c a t i o n s in 1988 and 1990.
U n lik e all the others, it does n o t s h o w a n a r r o w i n g of the w h ite-blac k
gap (.46 S D in hoth 1984 and 1 9 9 0 ) a n d is n o r included in the table.
A s the tahle in dicates, black p ro g ress in n a r r o w i n g the test score d is
crepancy w ith w hites has b een s u b s t a n t ia l o n all th ree tests and a c ro ss
all of the age groups. T h e overall a v e r a g e g a p o f .92 standard d e v ia tio n
in the 1 9 6 9 - 1 9 7 3 tests had shrunk t o .64 s t a n d a r d d ev iatio n by 1990.
T h e gap n arrow ed because b lac k s c o r e s r o se , n o t because white sc o re s
fell. A lto g eth er, the N A E P p ro v id es a n e n c o u r a g i n g picture.
T h e first p u blish ed breakdo w ns o f S A T scores hy e th n ic ity ap p ear tor

1976, w h e n the downward trend in S A T scores n atio n w id e after 1963
was n e a r in g its b o tto m (see C h a p t e r 18). From 1976 to 1993, the white-
black g a p in S A T scores narrowed from 1.16 to .88 stan d a rd d e v iatio n
in the v e rb a l p o r tio n ot rhe test and from 1.27 to .92 stan d a rd d e v iatio n
in rhe m a t h e m a t i c s portion of the rest.1 41 C o m p a r a b le n arrow ing has
also b r o u g h t b la c k and white a c h ie v e m e n t test scores closer, as pre
sen ted in A p p e n d i x 5. B ec au se the e thnic self-iden tification of S A T test
takers c o n t a i n s so m e a n o m a l i e s " and because the S A T pool is u n re p
r e se n ta tiv e o f rhe general population, the num bers should he interpreted
with c a u t i o n . B u t even so, the S A T data in dicate a n arrow ing gap. B lack
S A T test tak ers im proved substantially m ore in scores than white S A T
test takers, and neither the c h an g es in rhe p ool of test takers nor rhe
w ell-ad v ertised n atio n al d eclin e in S A T scores was responsible, for rea
sons e x p la in e d in the n o tes.1111
E x p l a in in g the C onvergence. L e t us assum e that during the past two

d e c ad e s b lac k a n d white c ognitive ability as m easured by IQ h as in tael
c o n v e rg e d hy an am o u n t that is co n sisten t with the c o n v e r g e n c e in e d
u c a tio n a l a p titu d e m easures such as the SAT or N A E P a narrow ing of
a p p r o x im a t e ly .15 to .25 standard d eviatio n units, or rhe e q u iv a le n t of
two to th re e I Q p oin ts ov erall,11'1W hy h av e the scores c o n v e rg e d ? T h e
answ er c a lls for speculation .
W e ta k e for gran ted that individual variation s in c o g n itiv e ability d e
pend o n b o t h gen es and en v iro n m en t (see C h a p t e r 4). In a period
as sh ort a s tw en ty years, en v iro n m en tal c h an ges are likely to p rovid e
the m a in reaso n for the narrowing racial gap in scores.1 '1 R eal and im
p o rta n t t h o u g h the problem s ot the underclass are, a n d a c k n o w le d g in g
that the u n d e rc la ss is disproportionately black, living c o n d itio n s hav e
im p rove d for m o st A fric a n -A m e ric a n s since the 1950s socially, e c o
n o m ically, a n d educationally.
C o n s i d e r th e sch ools that blacks attend, tor e x am p le. S o m e sc h o o ls
in rhe in n e r c itie s are worse than they were thirty years ago, bur p r o
p o r tio n a te ly few blacks live in these worst-of-the-worst a r e a s .1
T h r o u g h o u t th e S o u t h and in m u ch of the rest of th e country, m any
black c h ild r e n a s recently as the 1950s attended ram sh ac k le sch o o ls
with u n d e r tr a in e d teachers and m eager teach in g m aterials. A n y c o m
p arison b e t w e e n the sch ools that most blacks attend now and the on es
they a t t e n d e d in the 1950s favors c on tem p orary schools. A s s u m i n g that
e d u c a tio n affects c o g n itiv e capacity, t h e r i s in g in v e stm e n t in e d u c a tio n

d isp rop ortion ately benefits the c o g n i t iv e le v e ls at the lower e n d ot the
so c io e c o n o m ic spectrum .
T h e argum ent c a n be repeated for p u b lic h e a lth . If n u tritio n , shelter,
and health care affect intellectual d e v e l o p m e n t , then rising stan dards
ot living are d isp rop ortion ately g o in g to s h o w u p in rising s c o r e s for the
ec o n o m ic a lly d isa d v a n ta g e d rather t h a n for t h e upper cla sses. For travel
and its e d u c a tio n a l benefits, rhe a r g u m e n t a l s o applies. N o t so lo n g ago,
many less a d v a n ta g e d people sp en t t h e ir liv e s w ithin a few m iles of their
birthplaces. Today, A m e r ic a n s of n e a rly all w alk s of life c ro w d the in
terstate roads a n d the airports. Finally, tor t h a t m o st c o n te m p o r a r y form
of vicario us trav el the pop ular m e d i a t h e lev elin g is still m ore d ra
matic. T h e m o d ern m edia c an bring th e w o rld to everyone in ways that
were o n c e o p e n only to the rich.
B ec au se b lac k s are shitted toward t h e lo w e r e n d of the s o c io e c o n o m ic
range, such im p ro v e m e n ts benef it t h e m , o n av e rag e , m ore t h a n whites.
It rlie im p ro v e m e n ts affect c o g n itiv e d e v e l o p m e n t , the b lack-w h ite gap
should h av e c o n tr a c te d . Beyond t h i s s o c i o e c o n o m i c le v e lin g , there
m ight also h av e been a leveling due to d i m i n i s h i n g racism. T h e legacy
ot historic racism m ay still be tak in g its to ll o n c o g n itiv e d e v e lo p m e n t,
but we m ust allow the possibility t h a t it h a s lessened , at least for new
generation s. T h i s to o m ight a c c o u n t for s o m e n arro w in g o f th e black-
white gap.
LOOKING TO THF. F u t u r e . T h e q u e s t io n t h a t re m a in s is w h e th e r black

and white test scores will c o n tin u e t o c o n v e r g e . If all th at separates
blacks from w h ites are e n v ir o n m e n t a l d iffe re n c e s anti if fertility
p atterns tor d ifferen t so c io e c o n o m ic g r o u p s are c o m p a r a b le , th ere is
no reason why they sh o u ld n t. T h e p r o c e s s would be very slow,
however. If it c o n tin u e s at the p a c e o b s e r v e d over rhe last twenty
years, th e n we could ex p ec t black a n d w h i t e S A T sc o res to reach
equality s o m e tim e in the m iddle of t h e tw en ty-first century, but linear
e x trap o latio n s ov er such long p erio d s are n o t w orth m u c h .1'11'1
If black fertility is loaded m ore h e a v il y t h a n white fertility toward
low-IQ s e g m e n ts o f the p o p u la tio n , t h e n a t s o m e p o in t c o n v e r g e n c e
may he e x p e c te d to stop, and the g a p c o u l d e v e n begin to w id e n again.
We take up the fertility issue in C h a p t e r 15. A hriet su m m ary state m e n t
c o n c e r n in g fertility p attern s is th at t h e n e w s is not goo d. F o r now, the
test score d a ta leave o p e n the p ossib ility t h a t c o n v e r g e n c e h a s already
stalled. For m o st o f the tests we m en tio n ed , black scores stop p ed rising

in the m id - 1 9 8 0 s . O n the N A E P , the B /W gap actually increased from
1986 to 1 9 9 0 in all but on e test group (th e m ath rest for 17-year-olds).
O n th e S A T , b la c k scores on both verbal and m ath parts were nearly
flat for th e five years en d in g in 1993, after substantial g ain s in the p re
c e d in g d e c a d e . O n the A C T , however, black scores c o n tin u e d ro rise af
ter 1986, a l b e i t m od estly.1611
O n e e x p l a n a t i o n for the stalled con v ergen c e on the N A E P and S A T
is that A m e r i c a n ed u c atio n stopped im proving for every one, blacks in
cluded. T h i s is c o n siste n t with the white ex p erien ce o n the S A T , w here
white sc o r e s h a v e also been nearly flat since the m id -1980s. But the logic
is susp ect. J u s t b e c au se a group at a higher m ean stops im p ro v in g d o es
not im p ly t h a t a group with a lower m e an should also stop im proving.
O n th e contrary, pessim ists c a n d evelop a case th at the c o n v e r g e n c e o f
black a n d w h ite S A T scores in the last two decades is s y m p to m a tic of
what h a p p e n s w h en ed u c atio n slows down toward the sp eed of the slo w
est sh ip in th e convoy. It may well be th at ed u catio n im p rove s for stu
d ents at rhe low end of the d istribution but gets worse (or, m ore
optim istically, im proves less) for students at the top e n d .1''"1 If that is the
case, t he g a p b e tw e e n people at the low an d high end o f the d istribution
should narrow, b u t the narrowing will stop once the e d u c a tio n a l system
c o m p le te s its read ju stm en t favoring less cap ab le students.
T h e n a r r o w i n g black-white gap on the S A T looks consistent with
som e su c h e x p l a n a t i o n . 1631 S e e n from one perspective, th ere is goo d news
all a l o n g t h e sp e c tru m o f test scores. From 1980 to 199 3, the p ro p o rtio n
of b lack test tak ers who scored in the 700s on the S A T -V erb al increased
by 27 p e r c e n t , for e x a m p le .1|M| But such c h a n g e s at th e high e n d o f the
range of te s t sc o res m ean little, because so small-h p rop ortion of all black
stu d en ts w ere in v o lv e d .1' 1 T h e real source o f the black increase of
tw en ty -th ree p o i n t s in the average verbal test score from 1 9 8 0 to 1993
was a rise in th e scores at the low end o f the range. M o re th a n h a l f (51
p e rc e n t) o f th e g ain occurred because the proportion of black stu d en ts
sc orin g in th e 2 0 0 s dropped from 42 percent to .30 p e r c e n t .lh('1 In c o n
trast, less t h a n 1 percen t (0 .4 percent) of the gain o c curred b e c au se of
the c h a n g e in th e proportion of black students scoring in the 700s. For
the m a t h test, 22 percent o f rhe gain from 1980 to 1993 was a c c o u n te d
for by a d r o p in stu d ents scoring in rhe 200s; 4 p ercen t o f it was a c
c o u n te d for by a n increase in students scoring in the 700s.
P e ssim ists re a d in g these d a ta may think of a n an alo g y with the in
creases in h eigh t chat follow from b e tte r n u tr itio n : Better nutrition h e lp s

raise the height, o f children w hose d ie t s w o u ld otherw ise h av e b e e n i n
ad eq u ate, hut it d o es not add a n y t h i n g to t h e h e ig h t of those w ho h a v e
been re c e iv in g a goo d diet alread y.1"71 O p t i m i s t s may use the o p p o s i t e
sort of n u tritio n al analogy: the e x p e r i e n c e o f trying to lose weight. E v e n
a successful d iet h as its plateaus, w h e n th e w e ig h t stubbornly stops c o m
ing oft for a while. A plateau is all t h a t we a re se e in g in recent test d a ta .
Perhaps c o n v e r g e n c e will resum e o r e v e n a c c e l e r a t e in the near future.
A t rhe least, the op tim ists may say t h a t it is to o so o n to pass j u d g m e n t ,

an d that seem s the safest c o n c lu s io n . A s we re a c h the end of th is d i s
cussion of c o n v e rg e n c e , we c a n im a g i n e t h e resp onses of readers of v a r y
ing persuasions. M a n y of you will he w o n d e r i n g why we have felt it
necessary to qualify the good new s. A s m a l l e r nu m b er of readers w h o
specialize in m e n ta l testing m ay he w o n d e r i n g why we hav e g iv e n so
m uch p ro m in e n c e to e d u c atio n al a c h i e v e m e n t trends and a sc a tte r in g
ot IQ results th at may be p sy c h o m e tr ic a l l y ep h em era l. T h e answ er for
every one is th at predicting the fu tu re o n th is issue is little m ore t h a n
guesswork at this point. W e urge u p o n o u r readers a similar su sp e n sio n
o f jud gm en t.
G E N E T I C S , IQ , A N D R A C E
T h is brings us to the flash p o in t o f i n t e ll i g e n c e as a public topic: rhe

q u estio n of g e n e tic differences b e t w e e n t h e races. Expert op inio n, w h e n
it is ex pressed at all, diverges widely. In t h e 1980s, M ark S n y d e r m a n a n d
S ta n le y R o t h m a n , a p sych olog ist a n d a p o litic a l scientist, respectively,
sent a q u e stio n n a ire to a broad s a m p l e of 1 ,0 2 0 scholars, mostly a c a d e
m icians, w h o se sp ecialties give t h e m r e a s o n to be kno w ledgeable a h o u t
I Q / \ m o n g the oth e r qu estio n s, th e y a s k e d , W h i c h o f rhe fo llo w in g
best characterizes your opinion o f th e h e r ita b ility o f the black-w hite d i f
ference in IQ ? (e m p h asis in th e q u e s t i o n n a i r e item ). T h e answ ers w ere
div ided as follows:
T h e d ifferen ce is entirely d u e to e n v i r o n m e n t a l variation: 1 5 p e r

cent.
T h e d ifferen ce is entirely d u e t o g e n e t i c variation : 1 p ercent.
T h e d ifferen ce is a p ro d u c t o f b o t h g e n e tic and e n v ir o n m e n t a l
v a riation : 45 percent.
296 T he National Context
T h e d a t a are insufficient to support any reaso n ab le o p in io n : 24

p e r c e n t.
N o re sp o n se : 14 percent.
T h e re s p o n s e s reveal the degree o f u ncertainty within th e scien tific c o m

m u n ity a b o u t w here the truth lies. W e h a v e considered leav in g rhe g e
n e tic s issue at that, o n grounds that n o useful purpose is served by talking
a b o u t a s u b je c t th at is so inflammatory, so painful, and so tar from re so
lu tio n . W e c o u ld h a v e cited any num ber of expert reassurances th at g e
n e t i c d iffe re n c e s am o n g eth n ic groups are nor worth worrying about. For
e x a m p l e , a recently published textbo ok from which c o lle g e stu d en ts
a r o u n d th e c o u n try are learning about in telligence states u n eq u iv o c ally
t h a t th e re is n o c o n v in c in g direct or indirect ev id en c e in fav or of a g e
n e tic h y p o t h e s i s of racial differences in 1Q.WS te p h e n J. G o u ld , whose
M ism easu re o f M a n so successfully c e m e n te d the received w isdom about
I Q in the m e d i a , expresses this view as confidently and m ore eloquently.
E q u a lity [of the races| is not g iv en a priori, he once wrote in his c o l
u m n for N a tu ra l History m agazine. It is n either an e th ic a l principle
( t h o u g h e q u a l trea tm en t may he) nor a s tatem en t about n o rm s of social
a c t i o n . It ju st worked out that way. A hundred different and plausible
s c e n a r i o s fo r h u m a n history would have yielded other results (an d m oral
d il e m m a s ) o f e n o rm o us m agnitude. T h e y just d id n t h a p p e n . " '1 H e goes
o n to m a k e th ree argum ents. First, rhe very concept of race is illegiti
m a te , g iv e n th e exten siven ess o f in terbreedin g a n d the im precise nature
o f m o s t ot th e traits that p eop le think of as being racial. S e c o n d , the
d iv is i o n o f ra c e s is recent, occurring only in the last tens or p erh ap s h u n
d red s o f t h o u s a n d s of years, lim iting the am ou n t ot lim e that groups ot
h u m a n s c o u l d h a v e taken separate evolutionary paths. T h ir d , d e v e l o p
m e n t s in g e n e tic s d em o n strate that rhe genetic differences a m o n g h u
m a n b e in g s are minor. W e now know that our usual m e ta p h o r of
su p erficiality7 sk in d e e p is literally accurate, G o u ld w r ite s .'1H e con -
e lu d e s: S a y it five times before breakfast tom orrow; m ore im p o rta n t, u n
d e r s t a n d it as the cen ter of a network of im plication: H u m a n equality
[i.e., e q u a l it y a m o n g rhe races] is a co n tin gen t fact ot history.
O u r d ifficulty with this position is not that G o u ld (or oth e rs who
m a k e s im ila r a rgu m en ts) is wrong about the blurred lines b e tw e e n the
races, or a b o u t how long the races hav e been sep arated, or a b o u t the
n u m b e r of g e n e s th a t are racially distinctiv e. A ll his tacts c a n be true,
a n d yet p e o p le w h o call th em selv es J a p a n e s e or X h o sa or C a u c a s i a n s or
Ethnic Differences in Oogiiitive Ability 297
Mauri c a n still differ intellectual ly tor g e n e t i c reaso n s. W e m a y call t h e m

e th n ic g ro u p s in stead o f races it w e w i s h w e t o o a re m ore c o m f o r t
able with ethnic, bec au se o f the blu rred lin e s hut so m e e t h n i c g r o u p s
n o n eth eless differ genetically for su re, o t h e r w i s e they w ould not h a v e
differing skin c olors or hair textu res o r m u s c l e m ass. T h e y a l s o differ in
tellectually o n the average. T h e q u e s t i o n r e m a i n i n g is w h e th e r t h e i n
tellectual d ifferen ces overlap th e g e n e t i c d if f e r e n c e s to any e x te n t.
O u r reaso n for c o n fro n tin g t h e issu e o f g e n e t i c c o g n i tiv e d ifferen ces
is no t to quarrel with those w h o d e n y t h e m . If th e q u e s tio n of g e n e t i c
differences in c o g n itiv e ability w ere s o m e t h i n g th a t only professors
argued ab ou t a m o n g th em selv es, we w o u l d h a p p ily ign ore it here. W e
c an n o t d o so, first because in th e p u b lic d i s c u s s i o n of g e n e s and i n t e ll i
gence, no burden of proof at all is p l a c e d o n rhe in n u m e r ab le p u b lic
c o m m e n t a to r s w h o c laim that ra c ia l d i f f e r e n c e s in in te llig e n c e are
purely e n v ir o n m e n t a l. T h is s o m e t i m e s le a d s to a n e x t sta t e m e n t: th at
the d ifferences are therefore i n a u t h e n t i c arid t h a t p u blic policy m u st he
m easured ag a in st the a ssu m p tio n t h a t th e r e a re n o g e n u i n e c o g n i tiv e
differences h etw een the ra c e s.1' T h e a s s u m p t i o n of g e n e tic c o g n itiv e
equality a m o n g the races has p r a c t ic a l c o n s e q u e n c e s that require us to
co n fro n t rhe a ssu m p tio n directly.
S e c o n d , we h av e b ec o m e c o n v i n c e d t h a t th e topic of gen es, i n t e ll i
gence, an d race in the late t w e n t ie t h c e n t u r y is like rhe top ic of sex in
V icto ria n E nglan d. Publicly, th ere s e e m s t o be n o t h i n g to talk ab o u t.
Privately, p eo p le are fascinated by it. A s t h e gulf w iden s b e tw e e n p u b
lic discu ssion and private o p in io n , c o n f u s i o n a n d error flourish. A s it
was true of se x then, so it is true of e t h n i c d iffe r e n c e s in in te llig e n c e
now: T ab oo s breed not only ig n o r a n c e b u t m is i n fo r m a ti o n .
T h e d an g ers o f the m is i n fo r m a ti o n a r e c o m p o u n d e d hy the n a t u r e
of rhe c o n te m p o ra r y d isc u ssio n o f ra c e . J u s t b e n e a t h the surface of
A m e r i c a n life, people talk a b o u t r a c e in w ay s th a t bear little r e s e m
blance to rhe politically c o rrec t p u b l ic d is c u s s io n . C o n d u c t e d in th e
w orkplace, d o rm rooms, tav ern s, a n d c o u n t r y c lub s, by p eo p le in every
eth n ic group, this dialogue is tr o u b le d a n d o f t e n accusatory. T h e u n
derground c o n v e r sa tio n is not lim ite d to a r a c is t minority. It g o e s o n
everywhere, a n d we believe is in c r e a s in g l y s h a p e d by p riv ately h eld b e
liefs a b o u t the im p lic atio n s o f g e n e t i c d i f f e r e n c e s th a t c o u ld no t sta n d
o p e n in sp ec tio n .
T h e e v i d e n c e ab o u t eth n ic d iffe r e n c e s c a n he m isu sed , as m a n y p e o
ple say to us. S o m e readers may feel t h a t t h i s d a n g e r p la c e s a m o ral pro-
hihition a g a in s t e x a m in in g the evid ence for generic factors in public.

W e disagree, in part because we see ev en greater dangers in the current
gulf betw een public p ro n o u n c e m e n ts and private beliefs. A n d so, for
better or w orse, here are the m ajor strands of current th in k in g ab out the
role o f g e n e s in co g n itiv e differences between races.1'41
H eritability a n d G ro u p D ifferences
A good p la c e to start is by correcting a c o m m o n co n fu sio n ab o u t the

role ot g e n e s in individuals and in groups. A s we discussed in C h a p t e r
4, scholars a c c e p t rhat IQ is substantially heritable, so m ew h ere b etw een
40 and 8 0 percen t, m e a n in g that m uch o f the observed v a ria tio n in IQ
is genetic. A n d yet this in form ation re IIs us n o th in g tor sure about the
origin of t h e differences between races in measured in telligence. T h is
point is so basic, and so c o m m o n ly m isunderstood, that it d eserv es e m
phasis: T h at a trait is genetically transmitted in individuals does not mean that
group differences in that trait are also genetic in origin. A n y o n e w ho d oubts
this assertion m ay take two handfuls of genetically identical seed corn
and plant o n e handful in Iowa, the other in the M o ja v e Desert, and let
nature (i.e., rhe e n v iro n m e n t) rake its c o u rse .'1 T h e seeds will grow in
Iowa, not in the M o ja v e , an d the result will h av e n o th in g to d o with
genetic differences.
T h e e n v ir o n m e n t for A m e ric a n blacks has been closer to the M o ja v e
and the e n v ir o n m e n t for A m e r ic a n whites has been closer to Iowa. W e
may apply this general o b servation to rhe available d a ta and see where
the results lead. S u p p o se that all rhe observed ethnic d ifferen ces in
tested in tellig en ce originate in som e mysterious e n v ir o n m e n t a l differ
ences m ysterious, because we know from m aterial already presen ted
that s o c io e c o n o m ic factors c a n n o t be m u ch o f the e x p la n a tio n . W e fur
ther stip u late that o n e stan dard d eviatio n (fifteen IQ p o in ts) sep arates
A m e ric a n b lac k s an d whites and that a fifth of a stan dard d e v ia tio n
(three IQ p o in ts) sep arates East A sia n s an d whites. Finally, we assu m e
that IQ is 6 0 percen t heritable (a m iddle-ground estim ate). G i v e n th ese
param eters, h o w different would the en v iro n m en ts for rhe th ree groups
have to be in order to e x p la in the observed difference in these s c o r e s
T h e o b se rv e d ethnic differences in IQ could be e x p la in e d solely by
the e n v ir o n m e n t if the m e an en v iro n m e n t of w hites is 1.58 stan d a rd
d ev iatio n s b e tte r than the m ean en v iro n m e n t of blacks a n d .32 s t a n
dard d e v i a tio n worse than rhe m ean e n v iro n m e n t tor East A sia n s, when
e n v ir o n m e n t s are m easured a l o n g th e c o n t i n u u m o f their c a p a c it y to

nurture in te llig e n c e .1711L e t s s t a t e t h e s e c o n c l u s i o n s in p erc e n tile term s:
T h e average e n v ir o n m e n t o f b l a c k s w o u ld h a v e to be at rhe 6 r h per-
centile of the distribution o f e n v i r o n m e n t s a m o n g whites, and rhe a v
erage e n v ir o n m e n t o f East A s i a n s w o u ld h a v e to be at th e 63rd p e r c e n til e
o f e n v ir o n m e n t s a m o n g w hites, for th e r a c i a l differen ces to be e n ti r e l y
e n v iro n m e n ta l.
E n v iro n m e n ta l differen ces o f th is m a g n i t u d e and p attern a re i m
plausible. R e c a ll further that th e B / W d if f e r e n c e (in stan dardized u n i ts )
is sm allest at the lowest s o c i o e c o n o m i c le v e ls. Why, if the B / W d iffe r
en c e is entirely e n v ir o n m e n t a l, s h o u l d t h e a d v a n t a g e o f the w h ite e n
v iro n m e n t c o m p a re d to the b l a c k he g r e a t e r a m o n g the b ette r-o ff a n d
better-ed ucated blacks and w h ite s? W e h a v e n o t been able to th i n k of
a plausible reason. A n ap p eal t o rh e e ffe c ts of racism to e x p la in e t h n i c
differences also requires e x p l a i n i n g w hy e n v i r o n m e n t s p o iso n ed by d i s
c rim in atio n a n d racism for s o m e o t h e r g r o u p s ag a in st rhe C h i n e s e or
the Jew s in s o m e regions o f A m e r i c a , for e x a m p l e h av e left th e m w ith
higher scores th a n the n a t io n a l a v e r a g e .
E n v iro n m e n ta l e x p la n a t i o n s m a y s u c c e ssfu lly c ir c u m v e n t th e se
problem s, bur rhe e x p la n a t i o n s h a v e t o be form ulated rath er t h a n
simply assu m ed . O u r initial o b j e c t i v e is t o w arn readers w h o c o m e to
rhe discussion with firmly h e l d o p i n i o n s o n either side. T h e herit-
ability of in dividu al d ifferen ces in I Q d o e s n o r necessarily m e a n t h a t
eth n ic d ifferen ces are also h e r i t a b l e . B u t t h o s e w h o th in k that e t h n i c
d ifferences are readily e x p la in e d by e n v i r o n m e n t a l d ifferences h a v e n t
been to u g h - m in d e d enough about t h e i r o w n a rg u m en t. A t this
c o m p le x in tersectio n o f c o m p l e x f a c t o r s , th e easy answ ers a re u n
satisfactory on es.
R easo n s for T h in kin g that G e n e tic D iffe re n c e s M ight B e Involved
N o w we turn to so m e o f the m o r e t e c h n i c a l arg u m e n ts, b e g i n n i n g w ith

those th at argue for som e g e n e tic c o m p o n e n t in group d ifferen ces.
P r o f il e D if f e r e n c e s B etw een W h it e s and E ast A s ia n s . Races

differ n o t ju st in average s c o r e s b u t in th e profile of in te ll e c t u a l
c ap acities. A full-scale IQ sc o re is t h e a g g re g a t e o f m a n y s u b t e s t s .
T h e r e are th irte e n o f th e m in t h e W e c h s l e r In te llig e n c e S c a l e tor
C h il d r e n ( W I S C - R ) , for e x a m p l e . T h e m o st basic d iv isio n of t h e
subtests is in to a verbal IQ a n d a p e r f o r m a n c e IQ. In w h ite s a m p l e s ,
rhe verb al a n d p e r fo rm a n c e IQ suhscores tend to hav e ab ou t rhe sam e

m e a n , b e c a u s e IQ tests h a v e been standardized o n p red o m in an tly
w h ite p o p u la tio n s. B u t individuals can have im b a lan ces betw een
th e se tw o IQs. P eo ple with high verbal abilities are likely to d o well
w ith w ord s an d logic. In school they excel in history and literature; in
c h o o s i n g a c areer to d raw on those talents, they tend to c h o o se law or
j o u r n a li s m or ad v ertisin g or politics. In contrast, p eo p le with high
p e r f o r m a n c e I Q s or, using a more descriptive phrase, visuospat ial
a b il it i e s " are likely to d o well in rhe physical and biological
s c ie n c e s , m a t h e m a t ic s , engineering, or other subjects that d e m a n d
m e n t a l m a n i p u l a t i o n in the three physical d im en sio n s or the more
n u m e r o u s d im e n s io n s of m athem atics.
E a st A s i a n s living ov erseas score about the sam e or slightly lower than
w h i te s o n verb al IQ a n d substantially higher on visuosparial IQ. Ev en
in th e rare studies th a t h av e found overall Jap an ese or C h in e s e IQ s no
h ig h e r t h a n w hite I Q s (e.g., the S te v e n so n study ot Jap an ese, T aiw an ese,
a n d M i n n e s o t a n s m e n tio n e d e a rlie r),'7 the discrepancy betw een verbal
a n d v isu o sp a ria l I Q persists. For J a p a n e s e living in A sia, a 1987 review
of th e literature d e m o n stra te d without m uch q uestio n that the verbal-
v isu o sp a ria l d ifferen ce persists e v e n in ex a m in a tio n s that h av e been
th o r o u g h ly a d a p te d to the J a p a n e s e language and, in deed, in tests de-
v e l o p e d hy th e J a p a n e s e th e m se lv e s.'8 A study of a sm all sam p le of K o
rean in fa n ts a d o p te d in to white families in Belgium found rhe fam iliar
e l e v a te d v isu o sp arial sc o re s.'9
T h i s fin d in g has a n e c h o in the U n ite d S tates, where A s ia n - A m e r i-
c a n s t u d e n t s a b o u n d in engineerin g, in m edical schools, and in g ra d u
ate p r o g r a m s in the sc ien ces, but are scarce in law sch ools an d grad uate
p ro g ra m s in the h u m a n itie s and social sciences. M ost p eo p le reflexively
a s s u m e t h a t this c a n he ex p lain ed by language differences. People who
did n o t sp e a k E n glish as their first language or u'ho grew up in h o u s e
h o l d s w h ere E nglish w as not the language of choice c h o o se professions
t h a t are n o t so d e p e n d e n t o n fluent English, we often hear. But rhe e x
p l a n a t i o n b e c o m e s less credible with every passing year. Philip V ern o n ,
after r e v ie w in g the e v id e n c e o n A sia n -A m e ric a n s, c o n c lu d e d th at u n
fa m ilia rity w ith the E n g lish language and A m e ric a n culture is a p la u si
ble e x p l a n a t i o n only for the results of the early studies. C o n te m p o r a r y
s tu d ie s of A s i a n - A m e r i c a n s w ho are thoroughly accu ltu rated also show
th e ty p ic a l d isc re p a n c y in verbal and visuosparial abilities. A m e r ic a n
I n d ia n s a n d lnu it sim ilarly score higher visuospatially t h a n verbally;
their an c esto rs m igrated to the A m e r ic a s from East A s ia h u n d re d s o f

centu ries ag o .1,0 T h e v erh ah visu osp atial d isc re p a n c y goes d eep er t h a n
linguistic backgro und .
V e r n o n s o v erall appraisal was th at the m e a n A s ia n - A m e r i c a n I Q is
ahout 97 on verbal tests and about 110 o n visuospatial tests.1X11 L y n n s
1987 review of rhe IQ literature on East A s i a n s found a m edian v e r b a l
IQ of 98 and a m e d ian visuospatial IQ of 1 06 .1(121 A s o f 1993, for A s i a n -
A m e r i c a n stu d en ts w ho reported that E n g lish was the first lan g uage th e y
learned ( a lo n e or with an o th e r lan gu ag e), the A sia n -A m e ric a n S A T
m e a n was .2 1 s ta n d a rd d e v ia tio n a b o v e th e n atio n al m ean on th e v e r
bal test a n d .43 stan d a rd d e v iatio n a b o v e t h e nation al m ean o n the m a t h
test. C o n v e r t e d to an IQ metric, this a m o u n t s to a 3.3 point e l e v a t i o n
of m a th e m a tic a l scores over verbal scores fo r the high IQ A sia r t-A m e r-
ican p o p u la tio n that rakes the S A T . |M|
W hy d o visu osp atial abilities d ev elo p m o re than verbal ab ilities in
p eop le of East A s ia n ancestry in Ja p a n , H o n g K o n g , Taiwan, m a in la n d
C h in a , an d o th e r A s ia n countries and in the U n ite d S ta te s and e l s e
where, d esp ite th e differences a m o n g the c ultures and languages in all
th ose countries.' A n y sim ple so c i o e c o n o m i c , cultural, or linguistic e x
p la n a tio n is out of the q u estio n , g iv en the div ersity of living c o n d itio n s ,
n ativ e langu ages, e d u c a tio n a l resources, a n d cultural practices e x p e r i
enced by H o n g K o n g C h in e se , Ja p a n e s e in J a p a n or the U n ite d S t a t e s ,
K o rean s in K o re a or Belgium , and Inuit o r A m e r i c a n Indians. W e are
nor so rash as to assert that the e n v ir o n m e n t or the culture is wholly ir
relevant to the d e v e lo p m e n t of verbal and v isuosp atial abilities, b u t th e
c o m m o n g en eric history of racial East A s i a n s and their N o rth A m e r i
can or E u ro p e a n d e sc e n d a n ts o n the on e h a n d , and the racial E u r o p e a n s
and their N o r t h A m e r i c a n d escen d an ts, o n the other, c an n o t p la u sib ly
be dism issed a s irrelevant.
P r o f ii .il D if f e r e n c e s B etw een W h it e s a n d B l a c k s . Turning n o w t o

blacks a n d w hites (using these terms to refer exclusively to A m e r i c a n s ) ,
ability profiles h a v e also been im p ortant in und erstan ding the n a t u r e ,
an d possible g en eric c o m p o n e n t, of group differences. T h e arg u m e n t h a s
b een d e v e lo p in g aro u n d w hat is know n as S p e arm an s hypothesis.1* 41 T h i s
hypothesis says th at if the B/W difference o n test scores reflects a real u n
derlying d ifferen ce in the general m en tal ability, g, then rhe size o f rhe
B / W differen ce will be related to the d egree to w hich the test is s a t u r a t e d
w ith g .,M| In o th e r words, the better a test m e a su re s g, the larger the b l a c k -
.302 The National Context
w h ite differen ce will he. A r th u r Je n s e n began to e x p lo re this possibility

w h e n he l o o k e d at th e p attern of subtest scores o n the W I S C - R , takin g
a d v a n ta g e ot th e fa c t t h a t the W I S C - R has thirteen subtests, e a c h m e a
su rin g a s o m e w h a t d iffe re n t skill. C o n v e r tin g their statistical procedures
in to a m ore easily u n d e rsto o d form, here is the logic o f what A rth u r
J e n s e n and his c o a u th o r, Cyril Reynold s, d id .h<>
O n av e rag e , l o w - S E S whites get lower test scores th an h i g h - S E S
w hites. Rut s u p p o se you were to go through a large set ot w hite test scores
fro m a l o w - S E S a n d a h i g h - S E S group an d pull out every on e with an
o v e ra ll IQ s c o re ot, say, 105. N o w you hav e identical scores but very d if
fe r e n t S E S group s. T h e q u estio n becom es, W h a t d oes the p a r t e m of sub-
test scores lo o k like? T h e answer is, T h e same. O n c e you equalize the
o v e ra ll IQ scores, l o w - S E S and h i g h - S E S whites also had close-to-iden -
tica l m ean scores o n th e individual subtests.
N o w d o th e s a m e e x e rc ise with blacks an d whites. A g a in , let us say
t h a t you pull all the tests with a full-scale IQ score of exactly 105. A g a in ,
you e x a m in e the sc o re s o n the subtests. But this time the p attern o f s u b
test scores is not th e s a m e for blacks and whites, even th o u g h rhe sub-
tests add u p to th e id en tical overall score.1871 Despite id en tical overall
scores, w hites are charac teristica lly stronger than blacks on the subtests
in v o lv in g sp a tia l-p e rc e p tu a l ability, an d blacks are c h aracteristically
stro n g er t h a n w h ites in subtests such as arithm etic and im m ed iare m e m
ory, bo th o f w h ich in v o lv e retention and retrieval of in fo rm a tio n .ss A s
J e n s e n an d R e y n o ld s n o te, the pattern of subtest differences b etw een
w h ites an d b la c k s differs sharply from the n o d ifferen ces result
a sso c ia te d w ith S E S . T h i s directly c on trad ic ts the hyp othesis th at the
B / W d ifferen ce reflects prim arily S E S differences.519 W h a t a c c o u n ts for
th e different su b te st profiles? Je n se n and R eynolds p roceed ed to d e m o n
strate that th e results are c on sisten t with S p e a r m a n s hypothesis. W h ites
a n d blacks differ m ore o n the subtests most highly correlated with g, less
o n those least correlated with g.
S i n c e t h a t in itial stu d y using the W I S C - R , Je n se n has b een a sse m
b lin g stu d ies th at p erm it further tests o f S p e a r m a n s hypothesis. H e c o n
c lu d e d from o v e r a d o zen large and rep resentative sam p les of b lac k s and
w h ite s90 t h a t S p e a r m a n s hypothesis has been borne out sign ificantly
by every stu d y (i.e., 13 o u t ot 13) and n o appropriate d ata set has yet
b e e n fou n d t h a t c o n t r a d ic t s S p e a r m a n s hyp othesis.l,i T h e r e ap p ears to
be n o d isp u te w ith his sum m ary of the facts. It should be n o te d th at not
all group d iffe re n c e s b e h a v e similarly. For e x am p le, d e a f ch ild ren often
Ethnic Differences in Cognitive Ability 3 03
get lower rest scores th a n h earing c h ild r e n , h u t the size of the d iffe re n c e
is not positively correlated with the te s t s l o a d in g on g.'1' T h e p h e n o m
e n o n seem s peculiarly c o n c e n tr a te d in c o m p a r i s o n s ot erhnic gro u p s.
J e n s e n s m ost recent work o n S p e a r m a n s h y p oth esis uses r e a c t i o n
time tests instead of traditional m en tal te sts, b y p a ssin g m any o f the u su a l
o b je c tio n s to in tellig en c e test q uestions. O n c e ag a in , rhe m o r e g - l o a d e d
the activity is, the larger the B /W d iffe re n c e is, o n av e rag e .91 C r i t i c s c a n
argue th at the entire enterprise is m e a n i n g l e s s because g is m e a n i n g
less, bur the h y p o th e sis of a correlation b e t w e e n the m ag n itu d e of t h e
,( (-loading of a test an d the m agn itu d e ot t h e blac k -w h ite d ifferen ce o n
that test has b een confirm ed.
hlow d oes th e c o n firm a tio n ot S p e a r m a n s h y p o th e sis bear on rhe g e
neric e x p la n a t i o n of erhnic differences? In p la in th o u g h so m e w h a t i m
precise lan gu ag e: T h e broadest c o n c e p t i o n o f in telligen ce is e m b o d ie d
in g. A n y t h i n g o th e r th a n g is either a n a r r o w e r c o g n itiv e c a p a c ity o r
m e asu re m e n t error. S p e a r m a n s h y p o th e sis sa y s in effect that as m e n t a l
m e asu rem e n t focuses m ost specifically a n d reliably on g, the o b se r v e d
black-vvhire m e a n difference in c o g n i tiv e ab ility gets larger.'9"1 A t rh e
sam e tim e, or o th e r broad m easures of in t e ll i g e n c e typically h a v e r e l
atively h igh levels ot heritahility.191,1 T h i s d o e s n o t in itself d e m a n d a g e
netic e x p la n a t i o n of rhe ethnic d iffe re n c e , b u t by asserting th at the
be t ter the test, the greater the ethnic d i f f e r e n c e , S p e a r m a n s h y p o t h e
sis undercuts m a n y of the e n v iro n m e n t a l e x p l a n a t i o n s of the d iffe re n ce
that rely on rhe p rop ositio n (again, s im p li f y in g ) rhat rhe ap p aren t b la c k -
white differen ce is the result of had tests, n o t g o o d ones.
Ar^Mment.s A g ain st a G en etic E x p lan atio n
T h e ubiqu itou s A rth u r Je n se n has also p u b l is h e d rhe clearest e v i d e n c e

rhat the d isa d v a n ta g e d e n v iro n m e n t o f s o m e b la c k s h as d ep ressed th e ir
test scores. H e found that in black fa m il ie s in rural G e o rg ia , the e ld e r
sibling typically has a lower IQ th an th e y o u n g e r .9' T h e larger th e a g e
difference is b e tw e e n the siblings, the la r g e r is rhe difference in IQ . T h e
im p lic atio n is th at so m e th in g in the rural G e o r g i a e n v ir o n m e n t w as d e
pressing the scores ot b lack child ren as t h e y grew old er.|9f'1In n e ith e r t h e
white fam ilies o f G e o rg ia , no r white o r b la c k fam ilies in B erk eley,
C a lifo rn ia , are there c o m p a ra b le sign s o f a d epressive effect o f th e
e n v iro n m e n t.
But d e m o n s t r a t i n g that e n v ir o n m e n t c a n d e p r e ss c o g n itiv e d e v e l o p
m e n t d o e s n o t p r o v e t h a t th e entire B/W difference is en v iro n m e n ta l,

a n d in this lies a n a sy m m e t r y between rhe co n te n d in g parties in the d e
b a te . T h o s e w h o arg u e t h a t g enes m ight be im plicated in group differ
e n c e s d o n o t try to argu e th a t genes ex p la in everything. T h o s e w ho
arg u e a g a in s t t h e m L e o n K a m i n and Richard L e w o n tin are the m ost
p r o m i n e n t typically d e n y that g enes h av e anything to do with group
d iffe re n ce s, a m u c h m o re am b itio u s proposition.
C o n f r o n t in g S p e a r m a n s H y p o t h e s is . If one is to m ake this case

a g a i n s t a g e n e tic f a c to r o n p sych om etric grounds, the d ata sup po rtin g
S p e a r m a n s h y p o th e sis m u st be confronted. T h e re are two ways to do
so: d isp u te th e fac t itse lf o r grant the tact but argue that it d o es not
m e a n w h at J e n s e n says it does.
T h e m o st se a r c h i n g d e b a t e about S p e a r m a n s hypothesis was c o n
d u c t e d in a j o u r n a l th a t p u b lish e s both original scholarly works and c o m
m e n t a r i e s o n th e m , B ehavioral and Brain Sciences, where, in two separate
issues in th e latter 1 9 80s, thirty-six experts in the relevant fields c o m
m e n t e d o n J e n s e n s e v i d e n c e . 90 A num ber o f c o m m e n ts were favorab le
an d p r o v id e d further s u p p o r t tor J e n s e n s conclusio n. O th ers were c r iti
cal, for re a so n s that va ried from the philosophical (research in to such
h urtful issues is n o t u seful) t o the highly technical (were J e n s e n s results
the result of va ry in g reliabilities am o n g the tests?). We summarize them
in th e n o tes, bur th e strikin g feature was that no c o m m e n ta to r was able
to d ispute rhe em pirical c la im that rhe racial gap in cognitive perform ance
scores ten d s to be larger o n tests or activities that draw m ost o n g.11001
S e v e r a l years after th e e x c h a n g e on S p e a r m a n s h yp oth esis in B e
havioral and Brain Sciences, Jan-Eric G u stafsson presented so m e d ata
fi n d i n g a c o n sid e r a b ly sm a ll e r correlation than Je n se n an d others d o b e
tw e e n g l o a d in g a n d B / W d ifferences on a group o f su b te sts.kl It ts not
c le a r w hy G u s t a f s s o n o b t a i n e d these atypical results, but, as of this w rit
ing, they are still a ty p ica l. W e h av e found no others for rep resen tativ e
g ro u p s of b l a c k s a n d w h ites. O u r ow n appraisal of the situ a tio n is that
J e n s e n s m a in c o n t e n t i o n s regarding S p e a r m a n s hypothesis are intact
an d c o n s t i t u t e a m a jo r c h a l le n g e to purely en v iro n m e n ta l e x p la n a tio n s
o f t h e B / W d ifferen ce.
CULTURAL E x p l a n a t i o n s . A n o t h e r ap p ro ac h has been taken by J a n e

M e rce r, a s o c i o l o g is t a n d th e d evelop er ot the System o f M ulticultural
P lu ralistic A s s e s s m e n t ( S O M P A ) . Tests are artifacts of a culture, she
arg u es, a n d a c u lture m ay n o t diffuse equally into every h o u seh o ld a n d
com m unity. In a h e te ro g e n e o u s society, subcultures vary in ways that

inevitably affect scores o n I Q tests. Fewer books in the h o m e m ean s
less exp osu re to the m aterial that a voca b u lary subtest m easu res; the
varying ways of socializing c h ild ren m ay in fluence w h eth er a child
acquires the skills, or a desire for th e skills, that tests test; the
c o m m o n k n o w le d g e that tests su p po sed ly draw on m ay no t be
c o m m o n in c e r ta in h ou seh o ld s an d neigh b o rh o o d s.
S o far, this so u n d s like a stan dard arg u m e n t about cultural bias, and
yet M e rcer a c c e p t s the generalizations t h a t we discussed earlier ab o u t
in ternal e v id e n c e of b ias.10,1 S h e is not c la im in g that less ex p osu re to
bo oks m e a n s t h a t blacks score lower on v o cabu lary q u e stio n s but do as
well as w h ites o n culture-free items. R ather, she argues, th e effects o f
culture are m o re diffuse. H er arg u m en t m ay be seen as a v a r ia n t of the
uniform b a c k g ro u n d r a d ia tio n h yp o th esis that we d iscussed earlier.
Furtherm ore, she p oints out, stro n g correlation s betw een h om e or
c o m m u n ity life a n d IQ scores are readily found. In a study of 180 L atin o
an d 180 n o n - L a t i n o white elem en tary sc h o o l children in Riverside,
C a lifo rn ia , M e rc e r e x a m in e d eight soc ioc u ltu ra l variables: ( 1 ) m o th e rs
p a rticip atio n in form al organizations, ( 2 ) living in a segregated n e ig h
b o rh o o d , 0 ) h o m e language level, (4) s o c io e c o n o m ic status based on
o c c u p a tio n an d e d u c a tio n o f head o f h o u se h o ld , (5 ) urbanization, (6 )
m o th e rs a c h i e v e m e n t values, (7) h o m e ow nership, and ( 8 ) in tact b io
logical family. S h e th en show ed th at o n c e these sociocultural variables
were tak en in to a c c o u n t, the re m a in in g c orrelation b etw een ethnic
group a n d IQ a m o n g the child ren fell to n ear zero.10'
T h e p ro b le m with this proced ure lies in d eterm ining w h at, in fact,
these eigh t v a ria b le s control for: cultural diffusion, or gen etic sources of
v a ria tio n in in tellig en c e as ordinarily understood? R e c a l l that we
p o in ted out earlier th at c o n tro llin g for so c io e c o n o m ic sta tu s typically
reduces the B / W difference hy ab out a third. T o the extent th a t parental
so c io e c o n o m i c status is prod u ced hy p a re n ta l IQ, c o n tr o llin g for s o
c io e c o n o m ic status controls for p aren ta l IQ. O n e o b v io u s criticism o f
S O M P A is th a t it b ro ad en s the sc o p e of the c on trol v a riab les to such
an e x te n t th at the procedure b e c o m e s m e an in gless. A fter the c o rrela
tions b e tw e e n the eight sociocultural variab les and IQ are, in effect, set
to zero, little d ifferen ce in IQ rem ains a m o n g her ethnic sam p les. But
w hat d o e s this m e a n ? T h e o b vio u s possibility is that M e rcer h a s d e m o n
strated o n ly t h a t p aren ts m atc h ed o n IQ will p roduce c h ild re n with s i m
ilar IQ s no t a startlin g finding.
M ercer p o in ts out that the sam p les differ on the so c iocultural v a r i

ables ev en after co n tro llin g tor IQ. T h e substantial re m ain in g c o rre la
tions in d ic ate that im p orta n t am o u n ts o f the varian ce in sociocultural
c haracteristics [are] u n e x p lain e d by 1Q, IC4 evidence, she says, th at they
may be treated as substantially in dep en d en t ot I Q . " 01 Rut they are, in
fact, not in d e p e n d e n t o f IQ. T h e y rem ain correlated. H er basic c o n
clusion th at there is no justification for ignoring sociocu ltu ral factors
when in terpreting betw een-group differences in IQ seem s to us u n
c h a lle n g e a b le .106 In the n e x t chapter, we will present oth e r e x a m p le s ot
ethnic differen ces in social b eh avio r that persist after c o n tr o llin g for IQ.
Rut to c o n c lu d e that gen etic differences are ruled out by her analysis is
unw arranted, because she c a n n o t d em o n strate that a family's so c i o c u l
tural c h aracteristics are in d ep en d en t of their I Q .107
S c h o la rs o f J e n s e n s sc h o o l point to a num ber o f cither difficulties with
M ercers in terpretation. W h e n she c o n c lu d es that cultural diffusion e x
plains rhe black-w h ite difference, the d ata she uses show the fam iliar
pattern ot S p e a r m a n s hypothesis: T h e more a test loads on g, th e greater
is the R/W d ifferen ce.1* W h y should cultural diffusion m anifest itself
in such a p atte rn e d way? H er appeal to sociocultural factors d o e s n o t e x
plain why blacks score lower on backward digit sp an th a n forward; why
in c h ro n o m e tr ic tests, black m o v e m e n t time is faster, but reac tio n time
slower, th a n am o n g whites; or why the R/W difference persists on n o n
verbal tests such as the R a v e n s S tan d ard Progressive M atrices. It is also
not e x p la in e d why, if the role o f European white cultural diffusion (or
rhe lack of it) is so im p ortan t in depressing black test p erform an ce, it
has been so u n im p o rta n t for A sians.
A n u m b e r of authors besides M ercer h av e ad v a n c ed theories ot c u l
tural d ifference, often treated as parr ot the cultural bias" a rg u m en t but
asserting in m ore sw eep in g fashion th at cultures differ in ways that will
be reflected in test scores. In the A m e r ic a n context, W ad e B o y k in is
one of the m ost p ro m in en t ac ad e m ic advocates of a d istin c tiv e black
culture, arg uin g that nine in terrelated d im en sio n s put b lac k s at o d d s
with the p rev ailin g Euro cen tric model. A m o n g them are spirituality
(blacks a p p ro a c h life as essentially vitalistic rather th an m e c h a n istic ,
with the c o n v ic t i o n that no n -m aterial forces in fluence p e o p le s ev ery
day lives ); a b elief in the harm on y betw een h u m an k in d and nature; an
em phasis o n rhe im p orta n c e o f m o v em en t, rhythm, m usic, an d d a n c e
which are ta k e n as central t o psychological h e a lth ; personal styles th at
he characterizes as v e rv e (high levels of stim ulation a n d energy) and
affect (e m p h a sis o n e m o tio n s a n d e x p ressiv en ess); and social t i m e

p e rsp e c tiv e , w h ich he d efines as an o rie n ta tio n in w h ich ti m e is
treated as p a ssin g through a social sp ace rath er th an a m aterial o n e . 109
T h e n o tes reference a variety o f oth e r a u th o rs w h o h av e m ad e s i m i l a r
a r g u m e n ts .110 A ll , in different ways, p urp ort to e x p la in how large B / W
d ifferences in test scores c o u ld c o e x ist w ith eq u al p redictive v a lid ity o f
the test for su c h things as a c a d e m ic an d jo b p erform ance and yet still
n o t he hased o n d ifferences in in te llig e n c e , broadly defined, let a l o n e
genetic differences.
J o h n O g h u , a Berkeley a n th ro p o lo g ist, has proposed a more s p e c ific
version of this argu m en t. H e suggests th at we look at the history o f v ar-
ious m inority groups to understan d the sou rc es of differing levels o f i n
tellectual a t t a in m e n t in A m e ric a . H e d istin gu ish es three types of
m inorities: a u to n o m o u s m in o rities su c h as th e A m ish , Jew s, an d M o r
m ons, who, w hile they may be v ic tim s of d isc rim in atio n , are still w i t h in
the cultural m a in stre a m ; "im m ig ra n t m in o ritie s, such as the C h i n e s e ,
Filipinos, J a p a n e s e , an d K o re a n s w ithin th e U n i t e d S tates, who m o v e d
voluntarily to th eir new societies and, w h ile they may begin in m e n i a l
jobs, c o m p a re th e m se lv e s favorably with their peers back in the h o m e
country; and, finally, c astelik e m in o ritie s, su c h as black A m e r i c a n s ,
who were in volu n tary im m igran ts or o th e rw ise are c onsigned from b ir th
to a d istin c tiv ely lower p la ce on the so cial ladder.111 O ghu argues t h a t
the d ifferen ces in test scores are an o u t c o m e o f this historical d i s t i n c
tion, p o i n t in g to a nu m b er of castes aro u n d th e world the u n t o u c h
ables in India, rhe Burak u in Ja p a n , and O r ie n t a l Jews in Israel t h a t
h av e e x h ib ite d c o m p a ra b le p ro b lem s in e d u c a tio n a l a c h i e v e m e n t d e
spite bein g o f the sam e racial group as the majority.
T 1)F. FLYNN E f f e c t . Indirect support for the p ro p o sitio n that the o b s e r v e d

B /W differen ce c ou ld be the result of e n v ir o n m e n t a l factors is p r o v i d e d
by the w orld w id e p h e n o m e n o n of rising test sc o re s.112 W e call it rhe
Flynn e ffec t b e c a u se of p sychologist J a m e s F ly n n s p iv otal role in f o c u s
ing a tt e n tio n o n it, but the p h e n o m e n o n itself was identified in th e
1930s w h en testers began to n o tice th at IQ scores often rose with e v e r y
su ccessive y ear after a test was first stan dardized . For ex am p le, w h e n th e
S ta n fo r d - B in e t IQ was restandardized in the m id- 1930s, it was o b s e r v e d
that in d iv id u a ls e arn ed lower IQs o n the new tests than they got o n th e
S ta n fo r d - B in e t that h ad b e e n stan dardized in th e m i d T 9 1 0 s ; in o t h e r
words, g e ttin g a score of 100 (th e p o p u la tio n av e rag e ) was hard er to d o
on the later te st.111 T h i s m e a n t that the average p erson could answer

more item s o n the old test t h a n rhe new test. M o st of the c h a n g e has been
c o n c e n tr a te d in the n o n v e rb a l p ortions ot the tests.
T h e te n d e n c y tor IQ scores to drift upward as a fu n ction of years since
stan d a rd iza tion h as now b een substantiated , primarily hy Flynn, in m any
cou n tries a n d on m any IQ tests besides the Stanford -Biner. In som e
countries, th e upward drift sin ce World W ar II has b een as m u ch as a
point a year for s o m e sp an s of years. T h e n ation al averages h a v e in fact
c h an g e d by am o u n ts that are c o m parable to the fifteen or so IQ points
sep aratin g w hites an d b lac k s in A m erica. T o put it a n o th er way, on the
average, w h ites today may differ in IQ from whites, say, two gen era tio n s
ago as m u c h as whites tod ay differ from blacks today. G i v e n their size
and speed, th e shifts in tim e necessarily h av e been due m ore to c h a n g e s
in the e n v ir o n m e n t than to c h a n g e s in rhe genes.
T h e q u e stio n th en arises: C o u l d n t the m e an of blacks m o v e 15 points
as well th ro ugh e n v iro n m e n t a l changes? T h e re seem s no reaso n why
not hut also no reason to believe that white and A sia n m e a n s c a n be
m ade to s ta n d still while rhe Flynn effect works its magic.
T h e r e is a further question to answer: D o e s a 1 5-poinr IQ difference
between g ran d p aren ts an d their grandchildren m ean that the g r a n d
children are 15 p oin ts sm arter? S o m e experts d o not believe that the
rise is wholly, p erhap s not e v e n partly, a rise in in telligence but in the
narrower skills in volved in in telligence test taking per s e ; 111 others
believe th at ar least som e o f rise is in genuine in telligence, p erhap s
owing to rhe im p ro v e m en ts in public ed u c atio n (by the sc h o o ls and the
m ed ia), h ealth care, and nutrition. T h e re is evid ence that the rise in
scores m ay be due to a c o n tr a c tio n in the distribution of test scores
in the p o p u la tio n at large, with m ost of the shrinkage in rhe b o tto m halt
of the d is tr ib u tio n .111' In large-scale studies of rhe D an ish p o p u la tio n ,
virtually all ot the upward drift in intelligence test scores is ac c o u n te d
for by the rising p e rfo rm an c e s ot the lower half of the d istrib u tio n .11.
T h e d a ta we presented earlier on the rise in S A T scores by A m e r ic a n
blacks are c o n siste n t w ith this story. In general, egalitarian m od ern
societies d raw the lower tail of rhe distribution closer to the m ean and
thereby raise rhe average. 1 T h e s e findings accord with everyday
e x p erien ce as well. W h e th e r o n e looks at the worlds ot scien ce, litera
ture, p o litic s, or the arts, o n e d oes n o t get the im pression that the top
ot the IQ d istribu tion is filled with m ore subtle, insightful, or powerful
intellects th an it was in out g ra n d p a re n ts day.
Ethnic Differences in Cognitive Ability .309
W h a t e v e r we d isc o v e r a b o u t the re aso n s for the upward drift in the

m ean of the d istrib u tio n of test scores, two p o i n ts are clear. First, a rapid
rise in in te llig e n c e d oes no t plausibly stre tc h far into eith er the past or
the future. N o o n e is suggesting, for e x a m p le , th at the IQ o f rhe. aver-
age A m e r i c a n in 1776 was 3 0 or th at it will be 150 a century from
now.11,1,1 T h e rising trend in test scores m a y already be leveling off in
so m e c o u n t r i e s .1' 0 S e c o n d , at any p o in t in rime, it is o n e s position in
rhe d istribution that has the m o st sig n ific a n t im p lication s for social and
e c o n o m ic life as we know it and also for the posit ion of o n e s ch ild ren .11,11
Flynn suggests rhat rhe in terg en eratio n al c h a n g e in IQ has m ore to
d o with a sh iftin g link b etw een IQ scores a n d the underlying trait o f in
telligen ce th an with a c h a n g e in in telligen c e per se.1,221 E v e n so, the in
stability of test scores across g en era tio n s s h o u ld c a u tio n against taking
the current e t h n ic differences as etched in ston e. T h e r e are things we
d o no t yet un d erstan d about the relation b e tw e e n IQ and intelligence,
w hich m ay be relevan t for c o m p a riso n s n o t ju st across rimes but also
across cu ltures an d races.
R a c ia l A ncl ST RY . Just over 100 fam ilie s with ad op ted children o f

white, black, an d m ixed racial ancestry are bein g studied in an o n go in g
analysis of the effects of being raised by w h ite ad o p tin g parents ot m id
dle or higher so c ia l sta t u s .,2i T h i s fam o u s tran sracial ad o p tio n study by
p sych ologists S a n d r a S c a rr a n d Richard W e in b e rg is the m ost c o m p r e
h en sive a tt e m p t yet to sep arate the effects ot gen es and ot family e n v i
ro n m e n t on rhe c o g n itiv e d e v e lo p m e n t ot A m e r i c a n b lac k s and whites.
T h e first reports (w h e n the c h ild re n were a b o u t 7 years old ) in dicated
rhat the b lac k an d interracial ch ild ren had IQ s of about 106, well above
the n atio n al b lac k av erage or the b lack a v e ra g e in M in n e so ta , where the
sam p les were draw n. 1 his result p ointed to a consid erable im pact o f the
h o m e se ttin g o n intelligence. H owever, a racial and ad o p tiv e ordering
on IQ existed e v e n in the first follow-up: T h e m e a n IQ s were 117 for the
biological c h ild re n of white parents, 112 tor the white ad o p tiv e children,
109 for the a d o p te d children with o n e black a n d one white or A s ia n p a r
ent, an d 97 for the ad op ted c h ild ren w ith tw o black p aren ts."''11 A l t o
gether, the d a t a were im portant and in terestin g but no t d ecisive
regarding rhe s ou rce of the B /W d ifference. T h e y could m ost easily h av e
been squared with a theory that the B /W differen ce h as h oth generic an d
e n v ir o n m e n t a l e le m e n t s in it, but, with c o n sid e ra b le straining, could
p erh ap s h a v e b e e n stretched to argue for n o g en etic influence at all.
A follow -up a d ec ad e later, with the children in a d o le sc e n c e , d oes

n o t fav or the n o -gen etics c a s e . 12S T h e new ordering o f IQ m e an s was
109 for the b io lo g ic a l children o f white parents, 106 for the whire a d o p
tive c h ild re n , 99 for the ad op ted children with o n e b lack p aren t, and
8 9 for the a d o p te d children w ith two black p arents.1126' T h e m e a n o f 89
for a d o p te d ch ild ren with two black parents was slightly a b o v e the n a
tio n a l b lac k m ean but no t a b o v e the black m ean for the N o r t h C e n tr a l
U n i t e d S t a t e s . T h e b o tto m line is that the gap betw een the ad op ted
c h ild re n w ith two black parents and the adopted child ren with two
w h ite p aren ts was se v e n te e n points, in line with the B /W differen ce c u s
to m arily ob served . W h a te v e r the e n v iron m en tal im p act may h a v e been,
it c a n n o t h a v e b e e n large.
S c a r r a n d W ein berg c o n tin u e to argue th at the results are c o n siste n t
with so m e form o f m ixed gene and en v iro n m en tal source of the B /W
d ifferen ce, w hich seem s to us the most plausible c o n c l u s io n . 1 ' But
w h a te v e r the final consensus about the d ata may be, the d e b ate ov er the
M i n n e s o t a transracial a d o p tio n study has shifted from an argu m en t
a b o u t w h eth er the e n v iro n m e n t explains all or just so m e o f the B /W
d ifferen ce to an arg u m en t ab out whether it exp la in s m o re t h a n a tr iv
ial p art of the difference.
S e v e r a l sm aller studies bearing o n racial ancestry an d IQ were well
su m m arized a lm o st two d ec ad es ago by L oehlin , Lindzey, and S p u h le r . 1^
T h e y fou n d the b a la n c e o f ev id en ce tipped toward som e sort of m ixed
g e n e - e n v i r o n m e n t e x p la n a tio n of the B /W difference w ithout saying
h e w m u c h of the difference is genetic and how m u ch e n v iro n m e n ta l. 101
T h i s also e c h o e s the results o f S n y d e rm a n an d R o t h m a n s survey of c o n
tem po rary specialists.
T h e G erm an Story
O ne of the intriguing studies arguing against a large genetic component to

IQ differences came about thanks to the Allied occupation of Germany
following World War II, when about 4,000 illegitimate children of mixed
racial origin were horn to German women. A German researcher tracked
down 264 children of black servicemen and constructed a comparison
group of 83 illegitimate offspring of white occupation troops. T he results
showed no overall difference in average IQ.128 The actual IQs of the fa
thers were unknown, and therefore a variety of selection factors cannot be
ruled out. T he study is inconclusive but certainly consistent with the sug
gestion that the B/W difference is largely environmental.
Ethnic Differences in Cognitive Ability .311
But. d isse n t in g v o ic es c a n be heard in the a c a d e m ic world. For ex-

am p le, a w ell-kn ow n book, Nor in O u r G en es, by gen etic ist R ic h a rd
L e w o n tin an d psychologists S t e v e n R o se a n d L eon K a m in , criticizes
an y on e who e v e n suggests th at there m a y he a genetic c o m p o n e n t to
the B /W d ifferen ce or who reads the d a t a as we do, as tipping toward a
m ix tu re o f g e n e tic and e n v iro n m e n ta l in flu e n c e s .111 H ow c a n they d o
this? M ostly by e m ph a sizin g those a sp ec ts of the d ata that suggest e n v i
r o n m e n ta l in fluen ces, such as the c o rre la tio n s betw een the ad o p tin g
p a re n ts IQs or ed u c atio n al levels and rhe IQ s of their black ad op ted
c h ild re n in th e M in n e s o ta study from th e first follow-up (th e b o ok was
p ublished before the secon d follow -up). But they h av e n o th in g to say
about the asp e c ts that are c o n siste n t with gen eric influence, su c h as the
e v en larger c o rre la tio n s b etw een the e d u c a tio n a l level of eith er the b i
o lo gica l m o th ers or fathers an d the IQs of their adop ted -aw ay black c h il
d r e n .1'" A lt h o u g h L ew on tin , R ose, and K a m i n d o no t say it in so many
words, their a rg u m e n t m akes sense if it is d irected at the c la im that the
B /W d ifferen ce is entirely genetic. It d o e s little to elucidare rhe o n g o in g
scien tific inquiry into w h eth er rhe d ifferen ce has a genetic c o m p o n e n t.
W e h a v e to u c h e d o n only rhe h igh lig h ts o f the argu m ents o n both sides

of the g e n e tic issue. O n e m ain topic we h a v e left u n to u ch ed involves
the m alleab ility of in telligence, w'ith two e x tre m e s of thought: that in
tellig en c e is rem arkably u n m alleable , w h ich und ercu ts en v iro n m e n ta l
a rg u m en ts in general an d cultural o n e s in particular, and th at intelli
g en c e is highly m alleab le, su p p o rtin g th o se sam e argum ents. Because
the m alleab ility of in telligence is so critical a policy issue, it deserves a
c h a p te r o f its ow n ( C h a p t e r 17).
R E T H IN K IN G E T H N IC D IF F E R E N C E S
It the reader is now c o n v in c e d that e ith e r the gen etic or e n v ir o n m e n

tal e x p la n a t i o n has won out to the e x c lu s i o n o f the other, we h a v e not
d o n e a sufficiently good jo b of p re se n tin g o n e side or the other. It seem s
highly likely to us th at b o th g enes and th e e n v ir o n m e n t h a v e s o m e th in g
to do w ith racial differences. W h a t m ig h t the m ix be? W e are resolutely
a g n o stic o n t h a t issue; as far as we c a n d e te r m in e , the e v id e n c e does not
yet justify a n estim ate.
W e are n o t so n a iv e to th in k th at m a k in g such s ta t e m e n ts will do
m u ch good. P eo p le find it n e x t to im p o ssib le to treat e th n ic differences
w i t h d e tac h m e n t.. T h a t th e re are understan dable reaso n s for this only

in c r e a s e s th e n eed for t h i n k in g clearly and with precision ab out w hat is
a n d is n o t im p o r ta n t. In p articular, we h av e found that the genetic a s
p e c t o f e t h n i c d iffe r e n c e s h as assum ed an ov erw h elm in g im p ortan ce.
O n e s y m p t o m of this is t h a t while this book was in p rep aration and re
g a rd le ss o f h o w we d e sc rib e d it to anyone who asked, it was assum ed
t h a t th e b o o k s real s u b je c t h a d to be no t only ethnic d ifferences in c o g
n i t iv e ab ility b u t th e g e n e t i c source o f those differences. It is as if p e o
p l e a s s u m e d t h a t we are fa c e d with two alternatives: either ( 1 ) the
c o g n i t i v e d iffe re n c e b e t w e e n blacks an d whites is genetic, w hich en tails
u n s p o k e n b u t d read fu l c o n se q u e n c e s, or (2) the co g n itiv e difference b e
tw e e n b l a c k s an d w h ites is en v iron m en tal, fuzzily eq u ated with som e
so rt o f cu ltu ral bias in I Q tests, an d rhe difference is th erefore t e m p o
rary a n d u n im p o rta n t.
Bur th o s e are n o r th e on ly alternatives. T h e y are no t even a lte r n a
tiv e s at all. T h e m a jo r e t h n i c differences in the U n ite d S t a t e s are not
th e result o f b iased rests in the ordinary sense of rhe term. T h e y may
well in clu d e so m e (as yet u n k n o w n ) genetic c o m p o n e n t, but n o th in g
s u g g e sts th a t they are en tirely genetic. A n d , most im p ortant, it m atters
little w h e th e r the g e n e s are in volved at all.
W e h a v e already e x p la in e d why the bias argum ent d o e s not readily
e x p l a i n the e t h n ic d ifferen ces a n d also why we say that gen es may be
p art o f th e story. T o sh ow why we believe th at it m akes n e x t to no d if
f e r e n c e w h e th e r g e n e s are p art o f the reason for the ob served differences,
a t h o u g h t e x p e r im e n t m ay help. Im agine that tomorrow it is discov ered
t h a t th e B / W d iffe re n ce in m easured intelligence is entirely gen etic in
o rigin. T h e w orst c a se h a s c o m e to pass. W h a t difference would this
n e w s m a k e in the way th a t you ap p roac h the question o f e th n ic differ
e n c e s in in te llig e n c e ? N o t s o m e o n e else bur you. W h a t h as c h a n g e d for
th e w o rse in k n o w in g t h a t the difference is genetic? H ere are so m e h y
p o t h e t i c a l p o ssibilities.
Ij it were known that the B /W difference is genetic, would 1 treat individ
u a l blacks differently from the w ay I would treat them if the differences were
en viron m en tal? Probably, h u m a n nature being what it is, so m e p eop le
w o u ld in terp ret th e new s as a license for treating all whites as in te lle c
tu ally su p e rio r to all blacks. B u t we h o p e th at p utting this possibility
d o w n in w ord s m a k e s it o b v io u s how illogical besides utterly u n
fo u n d e d su c h r e a c tio n s w ould be. M any blacks would c o n tin u e to be
s m a r t e r t h a n m a n y w h ites. E th n ic differences would c o n tin u e to be dif-
terences in m e a n s a n d distributions; they w o u ld c o n tin u e to be useless,

tor all p ractical purposes, w hen a sse ssin g in d iv id u a ls. It you were a n e m
ployer lo o k in g for intellectual talen t, an I Q of 120 is an IQ of 120,
w hether rhe face is black or white, let a l o n e w h e th e r the m ean d iffe r
e n c e in e th n ic groups were g en etic o r e n v ir o n m e n t a l. If you were a
teacher lo o k in g a t a classroom ot b lac k an d w h i t e faces, you would h a v e
exactly the sam e in form ation you h a v e now a b o u t the probabilities th a t
they would d o well or poorly.
If you were a g o v e rn m e n t official in c h a r g e of e d u c atio n al e x p e n d i
tures anti p rogram s, you would c o n ti n u e to try to im prove the e d u c a
tion of inner-city blacks, partly out of a belief th a t everyone sh ou ld be
e d u cated to th e lim its ot his ability, partly out of fairness to rhe in d i
viduals lit every d egree o f ability w ith in t h a t p o p u la t io n but also, let
it be em p h a size d , o u t o f a h a rd h e a d e d c a l c u l a t io n that the net so c ia l
and e c o n o m ic return of a dollar sp en t o n th e ele m e n tary and se c o n d ary
ed u c a tio n ot a stu d en t does not d e p e n d o n th e heritability of a g ro u p
difference in IQ. M o re generally: We cannot think of a legitimate argument
why any encounter between individual whites a n d blacl<s need be affected by
the knowledge that an aggregate ethnic difference in measured intelligence is
genetic instead of environmental.
It is true th a t em ployers m ight u n d e r s o m e c irc u m sta n c e s find it e c o
no m ica lly a d v a n ta g e o u s to use e th n ic ity a s a crude but in e x p e n siv e
screen to cut d o w n hiring costs ( a ssu m in g ir were n o t illegal to d o so ).
Rut this in c e n tiv e exists already, by virtu e of th e ex isten c e of a d iffe r
ence in o b serv ed in telligence regardless of w h e t h e r the difference is g e
netic. T h e existence of the difference h a s m a n y in tersectio ns with p o lic y
issues. T h e source of the differen ce h as n o n e th a t we can think of, at
least in the short term. W h e th e r it d o c s or n o t in the long term, w e d i s
cuss below.
If the differences are genetic, are n t they harder to change than if they are
environmental? A n o t h e r c o m m o n reac tio n , th is o n e relies on false a s
su m p tio n s a b o u t in telligence. T h e u n d e rly in g error is to assume t h a t a n
e n v iro n m e n t a lly c aused deficit is s o m e h o w less hard-wired, that it h a s
less im p ac t on real capabilities, th a n d oes a g e n e tic ally caused d e fic it.
W e h av e m a d e this p o in t before, but it h ears rep eating. S o m e kin d s ot
e n v iro n m e n t a lly in du ced c o n d itio n s c a n b e c h a n g e d (lack of f a m i l i a r
ity with te le v isio n shows for a p e rso n w ith o u t a television set will p r o b
ably be red uced by p urchasin g h im a te l e v i s io n se t), hut there is n o
reason to th in k that in telligen ce is o n e o f t h e m . T o preview a c o n c l u
3 14 The National Context
sio n we will d o c u m e n t at l e n g t h in C h a p te r 17, an in dividuals realized

in te llig e n c e , n o m a tte r w h e t h e r realized through genes or the e n v ir o n
m e n t, is n o r very m a lle a b le .
C h a n g i n g c o g n i t iv e ability through env iron m ental in terven tion s has
p r o v e d to he e x tra o rd in a rily difficult. A t best, the e x a m p le s ot sp ecial
p r o g r a m s t h a t h a v e p e r m a n e n t l y raised c ognitive ability are rare. P er
h a p s as tim e g o es o n we will learn so m uch about the e n v iro n m e n t, or
so m u c h a b o u t h o w in te ll i g e n c e develops, rhat effective in terven tion s
c a n b e d e sig n e d . B u t this is o n ly a hope. U n til such a d v a n c e s in social
in t e r v e n t io n s c o m e ab o u t, w h ic h is unlikely to hap p en any time soon,
it is e s s e n tia l to grasp the p o i n t made earlier in the bo ok: A short p e r
s o n w h o c o u ld h a v e b een taller had he eaten better as a child is n o n e t h e
less really short. T h e c o rn p la n t e d in the M o jav e Desert rhat could have
flo u rish e d if it h a d b e e n p la n t e d in Iowa, w asn t p lan ted in Iowa, and
th ere's n o way to rescue it w h e n it reaches maturity. S a y in g that a d if
fe re n c e is c a u se d by rhe e n v ir o n m e n t says no th in g about how real it is.
A i'en t genetic differences p assed down through the generations, while en
vironmental differences are not? Yes and no. En v iro n m en tally caused c h a r
a c te ristic s are by d e fin i ti o n n o t heritable in rhe narrow tec h n ica l sense
th a t they d o n o t in v o lv e g e n e t i c transmission. But n o n gen etic c h a r a c
teristics c a n n o n e t h e l e s s run in families. For practical purposes, e n v i
r o n m e n t s are h e rita b le too. T h e child who grows up in a p u n ish in g
e n v i r o n m e n t an d th ereb y is intellectually stunted takes that deficit to
the p a r e n t i n g o f his c h ild r e n . T h e learning en v iro n m en t he e n c o u n
tered a n d th e le a rn in g e n v ir o n m e n t he provides for his children rend
to be sim ilar. T h e c o r r e la tio n betw een parents and children is just that:
a sta t istic a l te n d e n c y for th e se things to be passed dow n, d espite so c i
e t y s a t t e m p t s ro c h a n g e th e m , without any necessary genetic c o m p o
n e n t. In trying to b reak th e se intergeneration al links, e v e n a d o p tio n at
birth has its limits. P oor p r e n a ta l nutrition can stunt c o g n itiv e p o t e n
tial in ways th at c a n n o t b e rem ed ied after birth. P renatal tlrug and a l
c o h o l ab u se c a n stu n t c o g n i t i v e potential. T h e se traits also run in
fa m ilie s arid c o m m u n i t i e s a n d persist tor generations, for reasons that
h a v e p ro v e d d ifficult to affect.
In sum : It tomorrow' you k n e w beyond a shadow of a d o u b t that all
th e c o g n i t i v e d iffe re n ce s b e t w e e n races were 100 percen t genetic in o ri
gin, n o t h i n g o f a n y s ig n if i c a n c e should change. T h e k n o w led g e would
g iv e you n o re a so n ro treat in dividu als differently than if eth n ic differ
e n c e s w ere 100 p e rc e n t e n v ir o n m e n t a l. By the sam e token, kn o w in g
Ethnic Differences in Cognitive Ability 3 15
that rhe d ifferen ces are 100 percent e n v ir o n m e n t a l in origin w ould n o t

suggest a sin gle program or policy thar is no t already being tried. It w o u ld
justify n o o p tim is m ab o u t rhe rime it will take to narrow th e e x is t in g
gaps. It would n o t ev en justify c o n fid en c e th at g en etically based differ-
en c es will n o t he up on us within a few g en eration s. T h e im pulse to th in k
that e n v ir o n m e n t a l sources o f difference are less th rea ten in g t h a n
generic o n e s is natural hut illusory.
H O W E T H N IC D IF F E R E N C E S FIT IN T O T H E STO R Y
In any case, you are not goin g to learn tom orrow t h a t all rhe c o g n i t iv e
differences b e tw e e n races are 100 percent genetic in origin, b e c a u s e the
scientific state of kno w led ge, unfinished as it is, already giv es a m p le e v
idence that e n v ir o n m e n t is part of the story. But th e ev id en ce e v e n t u
ally may b e c o m e u n e q u iv o c al that g enes are also part ot the story. W e
are worried th a t the elite wisdom o n this issue, tor years alm ost h y s t e r
ically in d e n ia l a b o u t that possibility, will sn a p t o o far in rhe o t h e r d i
rection. It is p ossib le to face all the facts o n e t h n ic and race d ifferen ces
in in tellig en c e an d not run scream in g from the room : T h a t is t h e e s
sential m essage.
T h i s c h a p t e r is also central to the larger th e m e s of rhe book, w h ic h is
why we ask readers who h av e started with Part III to turn back to th e I n
tro du ction a n d begin the long trek. In Part I, we described the fo r m a tio n
of a c o g n itiv e elite. G i v e n the c og n itiv e d ifferen ces am on g e th n ic and
racial groups, the c o g n itiv e elite can n o t rep resent all groups equally, a
sta t e m e n t with im p lication s that we will d e v e lo p in Part IV. In P a rt 11,
we d escribed how in telligence is im p ortan t for u n d e rsta n d in g the so c ial
p roblem s o f our time. W e limited the d iscu ssio n to whites to m a k e it e a s
ier (o th in k a b o u t the e v id e n c e w ithout c o n sta n tly h av in g to worry
ab ou t racism , cultural bias in the tests, or o th e r e x tra n e o u s issues.
T h e m aterial in this c h a p te r lets us proceed. A s far as a n y o n e has
been able to d e te rm in e , IQ scores o n a properly ad m in iste re d test m e a n
ab o u t the s a m e th in g for all eth nic groups. A su b sta n tia l d iffe r e n c e in
c o g n itiv e ability distributions separates whites from blacks, a n d a
sm aller o n e se p a ra te s East A sia n s from whites. T h e s e d ifferen ces play
out in public a n d private life. In the rest of Part 111, we may now e x a m
ine the re la tio n sh ip between social p roblem s an d I Q on a n a t io n a l scale.
Chapter 14
Ethnic Inequalities in
Relation to IQ
Ethnic differences in education, occupations, poverty, unemployment, ille

gitimacy, crime , and other signs o f inequality preoccupy scholars and thought
ful citizens. In this chapter, we examine these differences after cognitive ability
is taken into account.
We find that Latinos and whites of sim ilar cognitive ability have sim ilar s o
cial behavior a n d economic outcomes. Some differences remain, and a few
arc su bstan tial, but the overall pattern is sim ilarity. F o r blacks and w hites, the
story is more com plicated. O n two vital indicators o f success educational
attainm ent and entry into prestigious occupations the black-white discrep
ancy reverses. A fter controlling for IQ , larger num bers o f blacks than whites
graduate from college and enter the professions. O n a third important in dica
tor of success, w ages, the black-white difference fo r year-round w orkers
shrinks from several thousand to a few hundred d o lla rs.
In contrast, the B /W gap in ann ual fam ily incoyru; or in persons below the
poverty line narrow s after controlling fo r IQ but still rem ains sizable. S im i
larly, differences in unemployment, labor force participation, m arriage, an d
illegitimacy get sm aller but rem ain significant after extracting the effect o f I Q .
These inequalities m ust be explained by other facto rs in A m erican life. Sch ol
ars have advanced m any such explanations; we will not try to adjudicate
am ong them here, except to suggest that in trying to understand the cu ltu ral,
social, and economic sources o f these differences, understanding how cogni
tive ability plays into the mix o f factors seem s indispensable. The role o f cog
nitive ability has seldom been considered in the p ast. Doing so in fu tu re
research could clarify issues and focus attention on the factors that arc a c tu
ally producing the more troubling inequalities.
318 Thu National Context
A
m e r ic a s p ressin g so cial problem s are often portrayed in eth n ic
term s. D o e s rhe n a t io n hav e an u nem ploy m ent p roblem ? It d e
pends. A m o n g w h ites in the recession year ot 1992, u n e m p lo y m e n t was
under se v e n p e rc e n t, but it was fourteen p ercent a m o n g b l a c k s .1
Poverty? T h e p overty rare in 1992 tor whites was less th an twelve per
cent but thirty-three p e r c e n t for blacks.2 S u c h numbers, and rhe d eb ate
over w h at they shou ld m e a n for policy, h av e heen at the c en ter of A m e r
ican so cial policy sin ce t h e early 1960s. A s L atinos have bec om e a larger
portion ot the p o p u la tio n , the debate has begun to include sim ilar d is
parities b e tw e e n L a t i n o s an d whites.
S u c h d isp arities are in disputable. T h e question is why. Surely history
plays a role. O p e n racism a n d in stitutional discrim ination of less o b v i
ous sorts h av e b e e n an im p o rta n t part o f the historical story for blacks
and are relev an r to th e historical experien ce of L atin o s and A sian -
A m e r ic a n s as well. C u l t u r a l differences may also be involved. A n e t h
nic group with a stro n g R o m a n C a th o lic heritage, such as L atin o s, may
behave d ifferen tly regard ing birth control and illegitimacy th an one
without t h a t b a ck g ro u n d . T h e tradition o f filial respect in rhe C o n fu -
cian c o u n trie s m ay bear o n the b eh avio r of A m e ric a n teenagers of East
A sian an c estry w hen o n e looks at, for exam p le, delinquency.
Part 11 sh o w e d th e im p a c t of c ognitive ability on poverty, illegitimacy,
crime, a n d o th e r so c ial p ro b lem s in A m e ric a a m o n g whites. C h a p t e r 1 3
showed t h a t the m a jo r e t h n ic groups in A m e ric a differ, on the average,
in c o g n itiv e ability. T h e r e is accordingly reason to ask w h at h a p p e n s to
ethnic d ifferen ces in e c o n o m i c and social b eh avio r when in telligen ce
is held c o n s ta n t. T h i s c h a p te r ex am in e s that question.
T h e N L S Y , w ith its large sam p les o f blacks and L atin os ( th o u g h nor
A sia n s), p e rm its us to add ress the question directly an d in detail. We
will show w h at h a p p e n s to the eth n ic gap on a variety o f in dicators when
IQ is ta k e n in to a c c o u n t . T o anticipate: In som e cases, large eth n ic d if
ferences d is a p p e a r altogeth e r, or even reverse, with whites h a v in g the
d isa d v a n ta g e o u s o u t c o m e com pared ro blacks and L atinos. In oth e r
cases, su b sta n tia l d ifferen ces rem ain, even after the groups are equ ated
not only for c o g n itiv e ab ility hut for parental S E S and e d u c a tio n as well.
We do n o t try to press th e analysis further, to find rhe other reaso ns why
groups m ay differ socially. T h e goal o f this chap ter is to b ro ad e n the
search for an sw ers after three d ecades during which sch olars h av e ig
nored the c o n tr ib u ti o n o f IQ to ethnic differences in the m ain social
o u tc o m e s o f evervd av life.
Ethnic Inequalities in Relatiim to ]Q 3 19
First, we look :ir the in dicators of su c c ess th a t were the focus o f Parr
1, th en rhe in d ic ators ot problem s rhar were the focus of Part 11.
E T H N I C D I F F E R E N C E S IN E D U C A T I O N A L A N D
O C C U P A T IO N A L SU C C E SS
We begin with what should be hailed as a g re a t A m e ric a n success story.

Ethn ic d ifferen ces in higher ed u c atio n , o c c u p a tio n s, and wages are s tr i k
ingly d im in ish e d after co n tro llin g for IQ. O f t e n they vanish. In this
sense, A m e r i c a h as equalized these c e n tral in dicators of social success.
E d u cation al A ttain m en t
T h e c o n v e n tio n a l view ot ethnic d ifferences in education holds th at

blacks and Lat inos still lag far beh in d , based o n c o m pa riso n s of the p e r
c en tag e ot m in o rities w ho finish hi^h sc h o o l, en te r college, and earn c o l
lege degrees. C o n sid e r , tor e xam p le, g r a d u a tio n from high school. A s ot
1990, 8 4 percen t of whites in the N L S Y had gotte n a high sc h o o l
d iplom a, c o m p a red to only 73 percent of hlacks a n d 65 percent of L atin o s,
e c h oin g natio n al statistics.1'1 But these p erc en tag es are based on every-
bt >dy, at all levels o f intelligence. W hat were the o d d s that a black or L a tin o
with an IQ of 103 the average IQ of all high school graduates c o m
pleted high sch o o l? T h e answer is that a youn gster from either m inority
group had a higher probability of graduating from high school than a white,
if all o f them h ad IQs of 103: T h e odds were 93 percent and 91 percent for
blacks and L atin os respectively, com pared to 89 percent for whites.141
C o l l e g e h a s similarly o p en ed up to b lac k s a n d Latinos. O n c e a g a in ,
the raw d ifferen tials are large. In natio n al sta tistic s or in rhe N L S Y s a m
ple, whites are m ore than twice as likely to e arn college degrees t h a n e i
ther hlacks or L a tin o s.hl T h e average IQ of all college graduates was,
however, about 1 14- W h at were the odds that a black or L a tin o with a n
IQ of 114 g ra d u a te d from c ollege? T h e figure he low shows the answ ers.
A ll the g rap h ics in this chap ter follow the pattern o f this one. T h e
top three bars show rhe probabilities of a p articu lar o u tc o m e c o lle g e
g rad u atio n in this c a se hy eth n ic group in the N L S Y , g iv en the a v e r
age age o f the sam p le, which was 29 as o f th e 1 9 9 0 interview. In this fig
ure, the top three hars show that a w hite a d u lt had a 27 percen t c h a n c e
o f h o ld in g a b a c h e l o r s degree, com p a red to the lower o d d s tor b la c k s
( 1 1 p erc en t) a n d L a tin o s ( 1 0 perc en t). T h e p ro babilities were c o m p u te d
throu gh a logistic regression analysis.
A ft e r c o n tr o llin g fo r IQ , th e p ro b a b ility o f g ra d u a tin g fro m c o lle g e

is a b o u t th e sa m e fo r w h ite s an d L a tin o s, h igh e r fo r b la c k s
The probability o f holding a bachelor s degree
For a person o f average age (29) before controlling fo r IQ

White 27% |
Black
Latino ^10% J|
For a person of average age and average IQ

fo r college graduates ( 114)
White 50%
1
Black 68%
Latino 49%
i i i i
0% 20% 40% 60%
T h e low er set of bars also p resents the probabilities by e th n ic group,

but w ith o n e b i g differen ce: N o w , the eq u atio n used to c o m p u te the
p robability a ssu m e s that e a c h o f these young adults has a certain IQ
level. In th is case, the c o m p u ta tio n assum es that everybody has the a v
erage IQ ot all c o lle g e g rad u ate s in the N L S Y -a little o v e r 114. W e
find th at a 29-year-o ld (in 1 990) with an IQ o f 114 h ad a 50 percent
c h a n c e of h a v in g g ra d u a te d from college if white, 68 p erc en t if b lack,
and 4 9 p e r c e n t if L atin o . A fte r taking IQ into a c c o u n t, b lacks h a v e a
better record o f e a r n in g c o lle g e degrees than either whites or Latinos.
We d iscuss this b lac k a d v a n ta g e in C h a p te r 19, when we turn to the e f
fects o f a ffirm a tiv e act ion.
O c c u p atio n al S ta tu s
O n e o f th e p o sitiv e findings a b o u t eth n ic differences h as been th at e d

ucation p ay s off in o c c u p a t io n a l status for m inorities roughly the sam e
as it d o e s for w hites,'1 T h i s was reflected in the N L S Y as well: H o ld in g
e d u c a tio n c o n s t a n t , sim ilar p ro p o rtio n s of blacks, L atin o s, an d whites
are foun d in the v a riou s o c c u p a t io n a l categ o ries.1'1
Ethnic Inequalities in Relation to IQ 32 1
T o w hat e x t e n t d oes c o n tr o llin g for I Q p r o d u c e the sam e result? W e

know fro m C h a p t e r 2 that o c c u p a tio n s d ra w f r o m different seg m en ts o f
the c o g n itiv e ability distribution. P h y sic ia n s c o m e from the upper p a rt
of the d istrib u tio n , unskilled laborers from th e low er part, and so forth.
If o n e eth n ic g rou p h as a lower av erage I Q t h a n a n o t h e r ethnic grou p ,
this will be reflected in their o c c u p a t io n s , o t h e r th in gs equal. W h a t
would the o c c u p a tio n a l distributions o f d iffe r e n t e t h n i c groups be after
taking c o g n i t iv e ability in to a c c o u n t?
S o c io lo g ist L in d a G o ttfr e d so n has e x a m i n e d th is q uestio n for b la c k s
and w hites.h If, for e x a m p le , black and w h ite m a le s were recruited w i t h
o ut d isc rim in a tio n in to careers as p h y s ic ia n s a b o v e a cutofi o f an I Q of
112 (w h ich sh e estim ates is a fair a p p r o x i m a t i o n to the lower bound for
rhe actu al p o p u la tio n o f p h y sic ian s), th e d iffe re n c e in the qu alifying
p o p u la tio n p o o ls would place the b la c k -w h ite r a tio at ab o u t .05 a b o u t
on e black d o c to r for every twenty w hite o n e s . A c c o r d i n g to census d a ta ,
the actu al per c a p ita ratio of black to w h ite m a le p h y sician s was a b o u t
. 3 in 1980, w h ich is ab out six b lack d o c to r s for ev ery twenty white o n es.
A n o t h e r e x a m p le is second ary sc h o o l r e a c h i n g , for w hich a similar c a l
c u la tio n im p lies o n e black h igh sc h o o l t e a c h e r for every ten white o n e s.
T h e actu al per c a p ita ratio in 1980 was in ste a d a b o u t six black t e a c h
ers for every te n white ones. In b o th e x a m p l e s , th e re are about six tim e s
as m any b lac k s in the o c c u p a tio n as there w ould b e if selection by c o g
nitive ability scores were strictly race b lin d . G o t t f r e d s o n m ade these c a l
c u la tio n s for o c c u p a t io n s sp a n n in g m ost o f th e r a n g e of skilled jobs, from
p h ysician and e n g in e e r at the top e n d to tru ck d riv er and meat c u tte r
at the low end. S h e co n c lu d ed th at b la c k s a r e o v e rre p re se n te d in a lm o st
every o c c u p a tio n , hut m ost of all for the h ig h - sta tu s occ u p atio n s like
m ed ic in e, e n g in e e rin g , a n d te a c h i n g .|1>I
W e c o n firm G o t t f r e d s o n s c o n c lu sio n s w ith d a t a from the N L S Y hy
goin g ba ck to the h ig h - IQ o c c u p a tio n s we d isc u sse d in C h a p t e r 2:
lawyers, p h y sic ian s, d entists, en g in eers, c o l le g e te a c h e rs, a c c o u n ta n ts,
architects, c h e m ists, c o m p u te r scien tists, m a t h e m a t i c i a n s , natural s c i
entists, an d social scientists. G r o u p i n g all o f th e se o c c u p a tio n s together,
w hat c h a n c e d id whites, blacks, an d L a t i n o s in t h e N L S Y h av e of e n
tering th em ? T h e figure below show s the results.
Before c o n tr o llin g for IQ an d using u n r o u n d e d figures, whites w ere
alm ost tw ice as likely to be in h i g h - I Q o c c u p a t i o n s as blacks and m o re
t h a n h a l f a g a in as likely as L a tin o s.1101 B u t after c o n tr o ll i n g (or IQ, the
picture reverses. T h e c h a n c e o f e n te r in g a h i g h - I Q o c c u p a tio n for a
522 The N ational C ontext
A f t e r c o n tr o llin g fo r I Q , b la c k s an d L a tin o s h av e s u b sta n tia lly

h ig h e r p r o b a b ilitie s th a n w h ites o f b ein g in a h ig h -IQ o c c u p a tio n
T h e probability o f being in a high-IQ occupation
F o r a person o f average age (29) before controlling fo r IQ

W hite 5%
B lack 3 % J |
Latino
F or a person o f average age and average IQ

fo r people in high-IQ occupations (117)
White
1
Black 26%
Latin o 16%
i i i i i i
0% 5% 10% 15% 2m 25%
b la c k with an IQ of 117 (w h ic h was the average IQ o f all rhe p eop le in

th e se o c c u p a t io n s in th e N L S Y sam p le) was over twice the proportion
o f w hites with the s a m e IQ . L atin o s with an IQ o f 117 had m ore th an
a 50 p e r c e n t h ig h e r c h a n c e o f en terin g a h igh-IQ o c c u p a tio n rhan
w h ites w ith the s a m e I Q . ' 111 T h is p h e n o m e n o n applies across a wide
ran g e of o c c u p a t io n s , as discussed in more detail in C h a p t e r 20.
W ages
W e c o m e n o w to w h a t m a n y people consider the true test o f e c o n o m ic

equality, d o lla r in c o m e . T w o m easures o f in co m e need to be separated
b e c a u se th ey s p e a k to d ifferen t issues. Wages provides a direct m easu re o f
how m u c h a p e rso n gets p e r unit of tim e spent o n rhe job. A nnual fam ily
incom e reflects m a n y o t h e r factors as well, being affected by marital s t a
tus (d o es th e fam ily h a v e tw o in com es?), no nw age in co m e (from stock
d iv id e n d s to w elfare), a n d the a m o u n t o f time spent e arn in g wages (did
th e p e rso n h a v e a jo b for all fifty-two weeks of the year?). W e begin with
w ages, the m e a su re t h a t m o st directly reflects the current w orkplace.
A s of 1 9 8 9 , w h ite year-round workers ( o f average ag e) in the N L S Y
sam p le ( m e n a n d w o m e n ) m ad e an av e ra g e o f $ 6 ,3 7 8 more th a n b l a c k s
an d $ 3 ,9 6 3 m o re t h a n L a tin o s.1121 T h e figure below shows w h a t h a p p e n s
c o n tr o llin g for intelligence, this tim e p resen tin g the results for a year-
A ft e r c o n tr o llin g fo r IQ , e th n ic w ag e d iffe re n tia ls s h r in k

fro m th o u sa n d s to a few h u n d re d d o llars
Annual w ages for a year-round worker, 1989
For a person of average age (29) before controlling fo r IQ

W hile $27,372 _ |
B lack ^ $ 2 0 9 9 ^ 1 1
Latino $23,409 I
For a person o f average age and average IQ (100)

White
Black
Latino
i i i i i i
$18,000 $20,000 $22,000 $24,000 $26,000 $28,000
round worker with an IQ o f 100. T h e av erag e black who worked year-

round was m a k in g less th an 77 percen t o f the wage o f the av e ra g e e m
ployed w h ite .11 1 A fte r co n tro llin g for IQ , the average b la c k m a d e 9 8
p erc en t o f the w h ite wage. For L atin o s, th e ratio after co n tro llin g for I Q
was also 98 p e r c e n t o f the white wage. A n o t h e r way to sum m arize the
o u tc o m e is th a t 91 p ercen t o f the raw black-w h ite differential in w ag es
a n d 90 p e r c e n t o f the raw L atin o-w h ite differential d isa p p ear after c o n
trolling for IQ.
T h e s e results say that only m inor earn in gs differences s e p a r a t e
whites, b lac k s, a n d L atin o s o f equal IQ in th e N L S Y . 14 B e c au se th is f i n d
in g is so far from w h at the public c o m m e n t a r y assumes, w e e x p lo r e it
further. W e fo c u s o n the situ atio n facin g b lac k s, because the b la c k -w h ite
disp arities h a v e been at the c en ter o f the p o litic al debate. Parallel a n a l y
ses for L a ti n o s an d whites generally show ed sm aller initial in c o m e d is
parities and sim ila r p attern s of c o n v e r g e n c e after co n tro llin g for IQ .
324 The N ational Context
O u r fin d in g th a t wage d ifferen tials nearly disappear m ay be a surprise

esp ecially in light o f the fam iliar c o n c lu sio n th at wage disparities p e r
sist e v e n for b lac k s and w hites w ith the s a m e ed ucatio n. For e x a m p le ,
in the 1992 n a tio n a l data c o lle c te d by the Bureau o f th e C ensus, m e
d ia n earn in g s of year-round, fu ll-tim e workers in 1992 were $ 4 1 ,0 0 5 for
w h ite m a le g rad u ates with a b a c h e l o r s degree an d only $ 31,001 for b l a c k
m a le s with the sam e d eg ree.1 S i m i l a r disparities occur all along the e d
u c a tio n a l range. T h e sam e p attern is found in the N L S Y data. Even a f
ter c o n tr o llin g for education, b la c k s in the N L S Y still earned only 8 0
p e rc e n t o f the white wage, w hich seem s to m ake a prim a facie case tor
p ersisten t d iscrim ination in the lab or market.
B la c k s and whites who grow up in sim ilar ec o n o m ic and social c i r
c u m s t a n c e s likewise continue to differ in their earning power as ad ults.
T h i s too is true o f the N L S Y d ata. S u p p o se we c on trol for three f a c
tors age, ed u c atio n , and so c io e c o n o m ic b ackgro un d that are g e n e r
ally assum ed to influence p e o p le s wages. T h e result is th at black w a g e s
are still on ly 8 4 percent o f w h ite wages, a g a in suggesting c o n ti n u i n g
racial d iscrim in ation .
A n d yet controlling ju st for IQ , ignoring both ed u c atio n and s o c i o e
c o n o m i c b a ck g ro u n d , raises the av erag e black wage to 9 8 percent ot the
w h ite wage an d reduces the d o lla r gap in an n u a l earnings from w ages
for year-round workers to less t h a n $ 60 0. A sim ilar result is given as th e
b o t t o m row in the following tab le, this tim e ex trac tin g as well the of-
B l a c k W ages as a P e rc e n ta g e o f W h ite W age s, 1 9 8 9
O ccupation Control Control Control C ontrol

ling Only ling for ling for Age, ling Only
for Age Age and Education, and for Age
Education Parental S E S and IQ
Professional/technical 87 92 95 102
Managers/administrators 73 72 74 82
Clerical workers 99 97 101 119
S a les workers 74 74 77 89
C raft and kindred work ers 81 80 83 96
Transport operatives 88 87 90 108
O th e r operatives 80 80 84 100
Service workers 92 96 102 119
Unskilled laborers 67 69 72 84
A ll em ployed persons 80 82 86 98
Ethnic Ineifualities in Relation to IQ 325
fects of different o c c u p atio n al distributions between whites and blacks.

T h e rows a b o v e it show what h ap p ens w hen separate wages are c o m
puted for different oc c u p atio n al groupings.
T h e fable c o n ta in s a num ber of notew orthy particulars, but the m ost
interesiing result, which generalizes to every occupational category, is
how little difference ed u cation makes. A c o m m o n com plaint ab out
wages is that they arc artificially affected by credentialism. If credentials
are im portant, then educational differences between blacks and whites
should ac c o u n t for m uch of their incom e differences. T h e table, h o w
ever, shows that knowing the educational level of blacks and whites d o e s
little to e x p la in the difference in their wages. S o c io eco n o m ic b a c k
ground also fails to exp lain m uch o f rhe wage gaps in one occ u p atio n
after another. T h a t brings us to the final colum n, in which IQs are c o n
trolled while ed u c a tio n and so c io ec o n o m ic background are left to vary
as they will. T h e black-white incom e differences in most o f the o c c u
pations shrink considerably. Altogether, the table says that an IQ score
is more im p o rta n t in most cases, m uch m ore im portant in e x p la in
ing black-white wage differences than are ed ucation and socioeconom ic
background for every occupational category in it.
A nalyzing the results in detail would require much finer breakdowns
th an the on es presented in the table. W hy is there still a meaningful d if
ferential in the m anagers/adm inistrators category after controlling for
IQ? W hy do blacks earn a large wage premium over whites of e q u iv a
lent age and IQ in clerical and service jobs? T h e explanations could
hav e so m e th in g to do with ethnic factors, but the varieties of jobs within
these categories are so wide that rhe differentials could reflect no th in g
more than different ethnic distributions in specific jobs (lor exam p le,
the m anagers/adm inistrators category includes jobs as different as a to p
ex ecutiv e at G M an d the shift m anager o f a M cD o n ald s; the service
workers category includes both police and bushoys). We will not try to
con d u c t those analyses, though we hop e others will. A t the level r e p
resented in the table, ir looks as if the job market rewards blacks an d
whiles of eq u iv a len t c ognitive ability nearly equally in almost every j o b
category.
A lth o u g h we d o no t attem p t the many analyses that might enrich
this basic c o n clu sio n , one other factor gen d er is so obvious that we
must m e n tio n it. W h e n gender is added to the analysis, the black-white
differences narrow by one or two ad d ition al percentage points for e a c h
of the com pariso ns. In rhe case of IQ, this m eans that the racial differ
e n c e d is a p p e a r s alto g e th e r. C o n tr o l li n g for age, IQ, an d gen d er (ig n o r

in g e d u c a t io n a n d p a r e n t a l S E S ) , the average wage for year-round black
w ork ers in the N L S Y s a m p le was 101 percen t o f the a v erage w hite wage.
A n n u a l In com e a n d P overty
W e turn from w ag es to th e broader q u estio n o f an n u al family in co m e.

T h e o v e r a ll fam ily in c o m e o f a 29-year-old in the N L S Y (w h o was not
still in s c h o o l ) was $ 4 1 , 5 5 8 for whites, c om pared to only $ 2 9 , 8 8 0 for
b lac k s a n d $ 3 5 , 5 14 for L atin o s. C o n tr o llin g for co g n itiv e ability shrinks
th e b la c k - w h ite d iffe re n c e in family in c o m e from $ 1 1 ,6 7 8 to $ 2 ,7 9 3 , a
n o t a b l e r e d u c tio n , but n o t as large as for the wages d iscussed ab ove:
b la c k fam ily in c o m e a m o u n t e d to 93 p erc en t o f white fam ily in c o m e a f
ter c o n t r o ll i n g for IQ. M e a n w h ile , m e a n L atin o family in co m e after
c o n t r o ll i n g for IQ w as slightly h igh e r than white in co m e (101 p erc en t
o f the w h ite m e a n ) . T h e persisting gap in family in co m e betw een blacks
a n d w h ite s is re flec ted in the poverty data, as the figure below shows.
C o n t r o l l i n g for IQ sh rin k s the difference between whites a n d oth e r e t h
n ic g ro u p s su b sta n tia lly b u t not com pletely.
C o n t r o llin g fo r I Q c u ts th e p o v erty d iffe re n tia l by

7 7 p e r c e n t f o r b la c k s an d 7 4 p e rc en t fo r L a tin o s
T he probability o f being in poverty
F or a person o f average age (29) before controlling fo r IQ

W hites
B la c k s 26%
1
L atin o s 18%
I
For a person o f average age and average IQ (100)
W hites
B la c k s 11%
L atin os 9%
i
0% 10% 20%
Ethnic Inec/ualities in Re Li turn to IQ 327
If c o m m e n t a t o r s and public policy sp e cialists were lo o k in g at a 6 per-

c e n t poverty rate for whites ag a in st 11 p e rc e n t for b lacks the rates tor
whites a n d b lac k s with IQ s o f 100 in the lower p o rtio n of th e graphic
their c o n c lu sio n s m ight differ from what they are w h e n they see rhe tin-
ad ju sted rates of 7 percen t an d 26 p e rc e n t in th e u p p er portion. A t the
least, the e th n ic d isparities would look less grav e. Rut e v e n after c o n
trolling for IQ , the black poverty rate rem ain s a lm o st tw ice as high as
the white rate still a sign ificant d iffe re n ce .116' W h y d o e s this gap per
sist, like the g a p in total fam ily in co m e, while th e g ap s in ed u catio n al
a tta in m e n t, o c c u p a tio n s, and wages did nor? T h e search for an answer
takes us su ccessively further from the th in gs t h a t IQ c a n ex p la in into
e th n ic d ifferen ces with less well u n d erstoo d r o o t s . 1'
E T H N IC D IF F E R E N C E S ON IN D IC A T O R S O F SO C IA L
PROBLEM S
Hthnic d ifferen ces in poverty persist, alb e it s o m e w h a t reduced, after

c o n tro llin g for IQ. L et us c o n tin u e with so m e o f the o t h e r signs o f s o
cial m a la d ju s tm e n t that Part II assessed for w h ites alon e, ad d in g ethnic
d ifferences to the analysis. W e will not try to c o v e r e a c h o f the in dica
tors in those e ig h t chap ters ( A p p e n d ix 6 p ro v id e s m u c h of that d etail),
but it m ay be in structive to look at a few of th e m ost im p ortan t ones,
seeing where IQ does, an d d o es not, e x p la in w h a t is h a p p e n in g behind
the scenes.
L Jnem ploym cnt an d L ab o r Force P articipation
Black u n e m p lo y m e n t has b een higher t h a n w h ite u n e m p lo y m e n t for as

long as records h a v e been kept m ore t h a n tw ice as h ig h in 1992, typ
ical of the last twenty y ears.18 O n c e ag a in the N L S Y tracks with the n a
tional statistics. R estrictin g the analysis to m e n who were not enrolled
in sch ool, 21 p erc en t of blacks sp en t a m o n t h or m ore u n em ploy ed in
1989, m ore th a n twice the rate o f w hites ( 1 0 p e rc e n t). T h e figure for
L a tin o s was 14 p ercent. C o n tr o llin g for c o g n i t iv e ability reduces these
p e rc en tag es, but. differently for blacks a n d L a tin o s. T h e difference b e
tween whites a n d L atin o s disapp ears a lto g e th e r, as the figure below
shows; th at b e tw e e n whites an d blacks n arrow s but d o e s n o t disappear.
B lack m ales w ith an IQ of 1 00 c ould e x p e c t a 15 percent c h a n c e ot b e
ing u n e m p lo y e d for a m o n th or m ore as of 1 98 9, c o m p a r e d with an 11
p erc en t c h a n c e for whites. D ro p p in g out o f th e lab or fo rc e is similarly
A f t e r c o n tr o llin g fo r I Q , th e e th n ic d isc re p a n c y in
m a le u n e m p lo y m e n t sh r in k s by m ore th an h alf fo r
b la c k s a n d d isa p p e a rs fo r L a tin o s
T h e probability o f bein g unemployed for a month or more

White
B lack 21% |
L atino
F o r a person o f average age and average IQ (100)

White
B lack ^ i i^
L a tin o _________11% ________ I
i i i
0% 10% 20%
related ro IQ . C o n t r o l l i n g for I Q shrinks the disparity b etw een b lac k s

and w hites by 65 p e r c e n t a n d th e disparity between L a tin o s an d w hites
by 73 p e r c e n t . |w|
S c h o l a r s are d is c u s s in g m an y possible e x p la n a tio n s of the p oorer jo b
o u tc o m e s for b la c k m a le s , so m e o f which draw on the historical e x p e r i
ence o f slavery, o th e r s o n the nature o f the urbanizing p rocess fo llo w
ing slavery, a n d still o th e r s o n the structural shifts in the e c o n o m y in
the 1970s, b u t e t h n i c d iffe re n ce s in IQ are not often in cluded a m o n g
the p o ssib ilitie s.20 R a c i s m a n d other historical legacies m ay e x p la in why
c o n tr o llin g for I Q d o e s n o t e lim in a te differences in u n e m p lo y m e n t and
drop p ing o u t o f t h e lab or force, but, if so, we would be left with no e v
ident e x p l a n a t i o n o f why su ch factors are not similarly im p e d in g the
eq u aliza tio n o f e d u c a t io n , o c c u p a tio n a l selection , or wages, o n c e I Q is
taken in to a c c o u n t . W i t h the facts in h an d, we c a n n o t distinguish b e
tween the role o f the u su a l historical factors that p eop le discuss and the
possibility o f e t h n i c d iffe re n c e s in w hatever other p ersonal attribu tes
besides IQ d e t e r m in e a p e r s o n s ability to d o well in the jo b m arket. W e
do n o t k n o w w h e t h e r e t h n i c group s differ o n the average in these oth e r
ways, let a l o n e why th ey d o so it they do. But to the e x te n t th at there
Ethnic Inequalities in Relation to IQ 329
are su ch d ifferen ces, c o n tro llin g for I Q will n o r c o m p letely w ash o u t th e

d isp arities in u n e m p lo y m e n t and lab o r force p articip atio n . We will n o t
sp e c u la te further a lo n g these lines here.
M arriag e
H istorically, the black-w hite differen ce in m a rria g e rates w as sm a ll u n

til rhe early 19 6 0 s and th en w id en ed . By 1 9 9 1 , o n ly 38 percen t o f b l a c k
w o m e n ages 15 ro 4 4 were m arried , c o m p a r e d to 58 p erc en t of w h ite
w o m e n .1211 In usin g rhe N L S Y , we will lim it t h e analysis to p eo p le w h o
h ad turned 30 by rhe time o f the 1 9 9 0 interview . A m o n g this g ro u p , 7 8
percent of w h ites had married befo re tu r n in g 3 0 c o m p a re d to o n ly 54
p erc en t of b lac k s. T h e white and L a t i n o m a r r ia g e rates were on ly a few
p erc en tage p o i n ts apart. W h e n we add c o g n i t i v e ability to the p ic tu r e ,
no t m u ch c h a n g e s. A c c o r d i n g to th e figure below , only 8 p erc en t of th e
black-w h ite g ap d isa p p ears after c o n tr o llin g for IQ , leaving a b lack w ith
a n IQ o f 100 with a 58 p erc en t c h a n c e of h a v i n g married by his or h er
th irtieth birthday, c o m pared to a 79 p e r c e n t c h a n c e for a white w ith th e
sam e IQ.
T h e reaso n s for this large differen ce in b la c k a n d white m arriage h a v e
been th e su b je c t of in tense d e b a te th a t c o n t i n u e s as we write. O n e
C o n tr o llin g fo r I Q e x p la in s little o f the larg e

b la c k -w h ite d iffe r e n c e in m a r r ia g e rate s
T he probability o f having m arried by age 30
F o r persons age 30 and above before controlling fo r IQ

W h ile s_______________ 78% _______________ I
B lacks
Latinos
F or persons age JO and above with average IQ (100)
W h ites_______________ 79% |
B lacks
Latinos
H i l l
0% 30% 60% 90%
HO The National C om ext
s c h o o l of t h o u g h t argues th a t structural u n em p lo y m en t has reduced the

n u m b e r of m a r r ia g e a b le m e n for black wom en, but a grow ing body of
i n f o r m a t i o n in d ic ate s t h a t n either a shortage of black m ales nor s o
c i o e c o n o m i c d e p r iv a tio n e x p la in s the bulk of the black-w hite disparity
in m a r r i a g e . 1" 1 A s we h a v e just dem onstrated , neither d oes IQ e x p la in
m u c h . For re a so n s that are yet to be fully understood, b lac k A m e r i c a
h a s t a k e n a m ark ed ly d ifferen t stan ce toward marriage than w hite and
L atin o A m erica.
1llegitinw cy
A sig n if i c a n t differen ce b e tw e e n blacks and whites in illegitim ate births

g o e s h ac k a t least to rhe early part o f this century. A s with m arriage,
h o w ev er, th e e th n ic g a p h as c h an g e d in the last three d ecad es. In 1960,
2 4 p e r c e n t of b lac k c h ild re n were illegitimate, c o m p a red to only 2 p e r
c e n t of w hite c h ild re n a huge proportional difference. Rut birth
w ith in m arria g e re m ain e d the norm for both races. By 1991, the figures
o n ille g itim a te births were 6 8 percent of all births tor b lacks c o m p a re d
to 3 9 p e r c e n t for L a ti n o s a n d 18 percent for n o n -L arin o w h i t e s / ' T h e
p r o p o r t i o n a l differen ce h ad shrunk, but the widening nu m eric al differ
e n c e b e tw e e n blacks a n d w h ites had led to a situation in which births
w ith in m arria g e were n o longer the norm for blacks, while they re
m a in e d the n o rm ( th o u g h a deteriorating on e) for whites.
T h e b la c k -w h ite d isp arity in the N L S Y is consistent with rhe n a
ti o n a l sta t istic s ( a l t h o u g h so m ew h at lower than the latest figures, b e
c a u s e it e n c o m p a s s e s b irth s from the m id - 1970s to 1 990). A s ol the 1990
in te rv ie w w av e , rhe p ro b a b ilitie s that a child of an N L S Y w o m an would
be b o rn o ur o f w ed lo c k (c o n tr o llin g for age) were 62 percent lor blacks,
2 3 p e r c e n t for L a tin o s , a n d 12 percent for n o n -L a tin o whites. A s far as
we are a b le to d e te rm in e , this disparity c an n o t be ex p la in ed away, no
m a t t e r w h a t v a riab les are entered into the equation. T h e figure below
sh o w s the usual first ste p , c o n tr o llin g for co g n itiv e ability.
C o n t r o l l i n g for IQ red u ced the Latino-w hite difference by 4 4 p er
c e n t but th e b la c k -w h ite difference by only 20 percent. N o r d oes it
c h a n g e m u c h w h en we a d d the other factors discussed in C h a p t e r 8:
s o c i o e c o n o m i c b a c k g r o u n d , poverty, c o m in g from a bro ken h o m e, or
e d u c a t io n . N o m atte r h ow th e d ata are sliced, black w om en in the N L S Y
( a n d in every o th e r re p re se n ta tiv e d atab ase that we kn o w of ) h a v e a
m u c h h i g h e r p r o p o rtio n o f children our of wedlock th an either whites
o r L a ti n o s . A s we write, th e d eb ate over the ethnic disparity in illegit-
C o n tr o llin g fo r IQ n a r ro w s th e L a tin o - w h ite d iffe re n c e in

ille g itim a c y b u t le a v e s a larg e g ap b e tw e e n b la c k s an d w h ite s
The probability that women bear their children out o f w ed lo ck
For a mother o f average age (29) before controlling fo r IQ

W h ite s 12% I
B la c k s 62% |
L a tin o s 23%
I
For a mother o f average age and average IQ (100)
W h ite s _ K ) % |
Blacks 51% |
L a tin o s
i i i i i i i i
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50 / 60% 70%
im acy re m a in s as intense an d as tar from reso lu tio n as ever.''1 W e c a n

only add that e th n ic differences in c o g n itiv e ab ility do not e x p la in m u c h
ot it either.
W elfare
A s o f 1991, ab o u t 21 p ercent of black w o m e n ages 15 ro 4 4 w ere o n

A F D C n a tio n w id e , c o m p a red to 12 p erc en t ot L a t i n o w om en an d 4 p e r
c en t o f w hite w o m en (in c lu d in g all w om en , m oth ers and n o n m o t h -
e rs) .is T h e N L S Y perm its us to ask a related q u e stio n that e x te n d s h a c k
through tim e: H o w m an y of the N L S Y w o m en , ages 26 to 3 3 as ot 1 9 9 0 ,
had ever b e e n o n welfare? T h e answ er is th a t 4 9 p erc en t o f black w o m e n
and 30 p e rc e n t o f all L a tin o w o m e n had b e e n o n welfare at o n e t i m e or
another, c o m p a r e d to 13 percen t of w hite w o m e n . 1261 T h e figure s h o w s
the effects o f c o n tr o llin g for IQ.
A d d i n g c o g n itiv e ability e x p la in s away m u c h o f the disparity in w e l
fare rec ip ien c y a m o n g blacks, whites, a n d L a tin o s . In the case of L a t i
nos, where 8 4 p erc en t o f the d ifferen ce d isa pp ears, rhe r e m a i n i n g
disparity with whites is a b ou t three p e rc e n ta g e points. T h e d isp arity b e
tween b la c k s a n d w hites 30 p e rc e n t o f b la c k w o m en r e c e iv in g w el-
332 The N a tional ( 'on text
C o n tr o llin g fo r I Q c u ts th e gap in b lac k -w h ite w e lfare

r a t e s b y h a lf a n d th e L a tin o -w h ite gap by 8 4 p e rc e n t
T h e probability that a woman has ever been on welfare

(all w om en, mothers and non-mothers)
F o r a wom an o f a v e ra g e age (2 9) before co n tro llin g f o r IQ

W h ites
B l a c k s __________________ 49% _________________ |
L a ti n o s
F o r a woman o f a v e ra g e age and average IQ (1 0 0 )
W h ites 12% fc
m a ck s . . J
Latinos
i i i i i i
m- 10% 2 0 /( 30% 4091 50'/;
fare, c o m p a r e d to a b o u t 12 p e r c e n t for whites is still large hut only half

as large as the d iffe re n ce n o t adjusted for IQ.
T h i s is as m u c h as we are able to exp la in away. W h e n we probe fur
ther, IQ d o e s n o t d o m o re to exp la in the black-white difference. For e x
a m p le , we k n o w chat p o v e rty is a crucial factor in d eterm in in g w h eth er
w o m e n g o o n w elfare. W e th erefore explored w hether IQ could e x p la in
th e b la c k -w h ite d ifferen ce in a particular group of w om en: those w ho
h a d had c h il d r e n and h ad b een below the poverty line in the year prior
to birth. T h e results of th e analysis are shown in rhe figure below.
A m o n g w o m e n w ho w ere p o o r in the year prior to birth, the black-w h ite
d ifferen ce is slightly larger after controlling for IQ, no t smaller. T h e s e
d a ta , like th ose o n ille g itim a c y and marriage, lend support to the s u g
g e stio n t h a t b la c k s differ from whites or L atin o s in their likelih o od o f
b e in g on w elfare for re a so n s th at transcend both poverty an d IQ, for re a
so n s th at are a n o t h e r s u b j e c t of co n tin u in g debate in the literature.1 71
L ow -B irth -W eigh t B abies
L o w birth w eigh t, d efin e d a s infants weighing less th a n 5.5 p o u n d s at

hirth, is p re d ic tiv e of m a n y su b seq u en t difficulties in the physical, so-
E v e n a m o n g p o o r m o th e rs, c o n tr o llin g fo r IQ d o e s n ot
d im in ish th e b la c k -w h ite d isp a rity in w e lfa r e re c ip ie n c y
The probability that a poor mother has e v e r been on welfare
F o r a p o o r m oth er o f a vera g e age (2 9 ) b e fo re co n tro llin g f o r IQ

W hile 62%
Black 78% |
Latino 64% |
F o r a p o o r m oth er o f average age and a v e ra g e IQ ( 100 )
White 56% |
Black 74% |
Latino 54%
i i i i
0 % nn 40% 6<)'/f ()'/<
cial, a n d c o g n i tiv e d e v e lo p m e n t o f c h ild re n . H istorically, blacks h a v e

h a d m u ch h igh e r rates o f low hirth weight t h a n e ith e r L atinos or w hites.
In the m ost rec en t reporting year ( 1 9 9 1 ) tor n a t io n a l data, alm o st fo u r
teen p e rc e n t of all b lack b a bies were low h irth w eight, c o m pared to five
p ercen t of w hite babies and six percent of L a t i n o babies."8 In our a n a l y
ses o f the N L S Y d ata, we focus on b a bies w h o were low hirth w eigh t rel
ative to the len gth o f gestat ion, e x c lu d i n g p re m a tu re babies w h o were
less th a n 5.5 p o u n d s but were ap p rop ria te for g estatio n a l age u sin g the
stan d a rd pediatric d e fin itio n .^ U s in g u n r o u n d e d d ata, the rate ot low-
birth-w eight births for blacks (1 0 p e r c e n t) was 2.9 times as h igh as for
whites. T h e L a t i n o rate was 1.5 tim es t h e w h ite rare. T h e figure show s
w hat h a p p e n s after c o n tro llin g for IQ. T h e b la c k rate, given a n I Q of
100, drop s from 10 percent to 6 percen t, su b sta n tia lly closing th e gap
with w h ites.101 T h e L atin o-w h ite gap r e m a in s effectively u n c h a n g e d .
C hildren L iv in g in Poverty
In 1992, 47 p e rc e n t of b lac k child ren u n d e r the age of 18 were livin g

u nd er the p o v e rty line. T h i s ex trao rd in a rily h i g h figure was n e a r ly as
bad for L a t i n o c hild ren, with 40 p e r c e n t u n d e r the poverty lin e . For
C o n t r o llin g fo r I Q c u t s th e b lack -w h ite d isp a rity

in lo w -b irth -w e ig h t b a b ie s by h a lf
T h e p r o b a b il i t y o f g i v i n g birth to a low -birth-w eight baby
For a mother o f average age (29) before controlling for IQ

W hiles 3%
B l a c k s ___________________ 1 0% |
L atin o s
For a mother of average age and average IQ ( 100 )

W hiles
B lacks 6% ^
L atin o s
i i i i i i
0% 2% 4% 6% 8'7< 1 0%
n o n - L a tin o w hites, the p r o p o r ti o n was ab out 14 p erc en t.1 11 In a p

p ro ac h in g th is issue th ro u g h th e N L S Y , we c o n c en trated on very young
children, id e n tify in g th ose w h o had lived in families with in co m es be
low the p o v e rty lin e th r o u g h o u t their first three years o f life. T h e re
sults, befo re a n d after c o n t r o ll i n g for IQ, are shown in the upper figure
on the n e x t p ag e. G i v e n a m o t h e r with average IQ and av erage age, the
p robability t h a t a b lac k c h il d in the N L S Y lived in poverty th ro u gh o u t
his first th re e years was o n ly 14 percent, com pared to an uncorrected
black a v e r a g e of 54 percen t. T h e reduction for Latinos, from 30 percen t
to 10 p e r c e n t, w as a lso targe. T h e proportional difference betw een m i
norities a n d w h ite s re m a in s large.'*"
The C h ild s H orne E n v iro n m en t
We now turn to th e m easu re o f th e h o m e en v iron m en t, the H O M E in

dex, d e sc rib ed in C h a p t e r 10. F o r this and the several oth e r in dexes used
in the a s s e s s m e n t o f N L S Y c h ild r e n , we follow our practice in C h a p t e r
10, fo c u sin g o n c h ild r e n a t th e b o tto m o f eac h scale, with b o tto m o p
eration ally d e fin e d as b e in g in rh e bo ttom 10 percent.
T h e d isp a ritie s in low H O M E index scores b etw een whites and
m ino rities w ere large (see rhe lower figure on the n e x t page). It was
C o n tr o llin g fo r IQ re d u c e s th e d isc r e p a n c y b e tw e e n m in o r ity a n d

w h ite c h ild re n liv in g in p o v e rty by m o re th an 8 0 p e r c e n t
T h e p ro b a b ility o l 'a child liv in g in p o v e r ty f o r the first three y e a r s
Born to a mother average age (29) before controlling for IQ

W hites 9% fe
B lacks 54% |
L a ti n o s 30%
Born to a mother o f average age ami average IQ ( 100)
W h ites 6 % |
Blacks 1 4% |
Latinos 10%
i i i i i i i
0% 10% 20% 309} 40% 50% 60%
C o n tr o llin g fo r I Q c u ts th e e th n ic d isp a rity in h om e e n v ir o n m e n ts

by h a lf fo r b la c k s and m ore th an 6 0 p e rc e n t fo r L a t in o s
T h e p ro b a b ility o f b ein g in the b o tto m d e c i l e o n the H O M E i n d e x
Born to a person o f average age (2V) before controlling for IQ

Whites 7%
B lacks 28%
L a ti n o s 21%
Born to a person of average age and average IQ (100)

Whites
Blacks 16% fe
Latin os 11 %
i i i i
0% 10% 20% 30%
su b s t a n t ia ll y reduced, by 52 percen t for blacks and 64 p e rc e n t for Lati-

n o s, but th e b la c k rate re m ain e d well over twice the white rare and the
L a t i n o rare clo se to twice th e white r a t e . '1
In d icators o f the C h ild s D evelopm ent
D e t a i l s o n t h e several in d e x e s o f child d e v e lo p m e n t presented in C h a p

ter 10 m ay be fou n d in A p p e n d i x 6. We sum marize th em here by s h o w
in g t h e p ro p o r tio n o f c h ild re n who showed up in the b o tto m d ec ile of
an y of the in dexes.
A s th e figure below show s, the ethnic disparities were not great ev en
b e fo re c o n tr o ll i n g for IQ , an d they more than disapp eared after c o n
t r o llin g for IQ . W e leave th is finding as it stands, but it ob vio u sly raises
C o n tr o llin g fo r I Q m ore th an elim in a te s o v e rall

e th n ic d iffe r e n c e s in th e d ev elo p m en tal in d e x e s
T h e prob ability that a child w a s in the bottom d e c i l e o f

on e or m o re o f the d e v e lo p m e n ta l in d e x e s
Horn lo a mother o f average age (29) before controlling for IQ
W
hites^ i
B,acks
Latinos 13%_________ I
Horn to a mother o f average age and average IQ ( KXJ)

Whites
B lack s ^
Latinos
i i i i i
0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
a n u m b e r of issues. S i n c e th ese indexes are based primarily o n the m o t h

e r s a s se ssm e n ts, it is p o ssib le th at w om en o f different eth n ic group s use
d iffe r e n t referen c e p oin ts (as h as been found o n erhnic d ifferences in
o t h e r self-rep o rt m easu res). 14 It is also possible th a t the results may be
tak en at face v alu e an d th at m inority c h i l d r e n w ith m o t h e r s o f s i m i l a r

age and IQ d o b etter o n d e v e lo p m e n ta l m e a s u r e s t h a n w h ite c h i l d r e n ,
w hich c ould h a v e im p orta n t im p lic atio n s. F illin g o u t th is story lies b e
yond the sc o p e of our work, b u t we h o p e it will be ta k e n u p by o t h e r s . 1
Intellectual D evelopm ent
W e will discuss this topic in m ore detail in C h a p t e r 15 as w e p r e s e n t t h e

effects of differen tial fertility across e t h n i c g roup s. T h e figure b e l o w
shows the c h ild r e n o f N L S Y m others w h o s c o r e d in the b o t t o m d e c i l e
o n the P e a b o d y Picture Vocabulary Test ( P P V T ) based on n ation al n o rm s,
n o t the b o tto m d ecile of children w ith in t h e N L S Y sa m p le . C o n t r o l -
B a se d on n a tio n a l n o rm s, high p e r c e n ta g e s o f m in o rity c h ild r e n

re m ain in th e b o tto m d ecile o f IQ a f t e r c o n t r o llin g fo r th e
m o th e rs I Q
T he probability that a child is in the b o tto m d ecile o f the P P V T

(based on national n o rm s)
Bom to a person o f average age (29) before controlling f o r IQ

W h ite s
H lacks 55% |
Latin os 54%
Born to a person o f average age and av erage IQ (100)

W h ites 10 %
B lacks 33%
Latinos 30%
i i 1 i 1 i i i i
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
ling for the m o t h e r s IQ reduces e t h n i c d is p a r itie s c o n s i d e r a b l y w h i le

o n c e a g a in le a v in g a broad gap with w h ite s- in this c a se , r o u g h l y a n
eq ual g ap b e tw e e n whites an d b o th b l a c k s a n d L a tin o s. T h e p o i n t t h a t
stan d s out, how ever, is the extrem ely larg e p r o p o r t i o n o f m in o r ity N L S Y
c h ild ren w h o were in the b o tto m d ec ile o f th e P P V T in e ffec t, m e a n -
ing an IQ o f 8 0 or lower w hen national norms are applied. T h i s is on e

of the reaso ns for concern ab out fertility that we discuss in C h a p t e r 1 5.
C rim e
In the n a t io n a l data, blacks are about 3.8 times more likely to he ar

rested relative to their num bers in the general p o p u la tio n th an whites
(L a tin o an d n o n -L atin o whites are com bined in this c o m p a r i s o n ) . "
Blacks are a l s o disproportionately the victim s of crime, especially v i o
lent crime. T h e ratio of black h o m ic id e victim s to white as o f 1990 was
7.7 to 1 for m e n and 4.8 to 1 for w o m e n .1'
S o c io lo g ist R obert G o r d o n has analyzed black-white d ifferences in
crime and c o n c lu d e d that virtually all o f the difference in the p r e v a
lence of black an d white juvenile delinquents is e x p la in e d by the IQ d if
ference, in d e p e n d e n t o f the effect o f so c io e c o n o m ic status. 8 T h e only
reliable in d ic ato r from the N L S Y that lets us com pare c rim in al b e h a v
ior across e t h n i c groups is the p ercentage o f young m en who were ever
interviewed w h ile in carcerated.|W| T h e figure below shows the stan dard
com parison, before and after controlling for cognitive ability. A m o n g
white men, the proportion interviewed in a correctional facility after
C o n tr o llin g for IQ c u ts the b lack -w h ite d iffe re n c e

in in ca rc eratio n by alm o st th re e -q u a rte rs
T he probability o f ever having been interview ed

in a correctional facility
For a man of average age (29) before controlling fo r IQ
Whites
Blacks 13 % |
Latinos 6%
For a man of average age and average IQ (100)

Whites 2 % I
vanJI
Blacks 5% I
5% 10% 15%
Ethnic Inequalities in Relation to IQ 3.39
co n tro llin g for age was 2.4 p ercent; a m o n g b lack men, it w as 13.1 p e r
cent. T h i s large M ack-w hite difference w a s reduced hy a l m o s t th ree-
quarters w h e n IQ was taken into a c c o u n t. T h e relationship o f c o g n i t i v e
ability to c rim in al beh a v io r a m o n g w hites a n d blacks a p p e a rs to b e s i m
ilar.40 A s in the c a se o f other indicators, w e are left with a n o n t r i v i a l
black-w h ite differen ce ev en after c o n tr o ll i n g for IQ, but th e m a g n it u d e
o f the d ifferen ce shrinks dramatically.
T he M iddle C la s s V alues Index
W e c o n c lu d e d Part II with the M id d le C l a s s Values ( M C V ) I n d e x ,

which scores a yes for those young ad ults in the N L S Y w h o w ere still
married to their first spouse, in the labor fo rc e if they were m e n , b e a r
ing their c h ild ren within marriage if they w ere wom en, a n d s t a y i n g o u t
of jail, and scores a n o for those w h o failed an y of those criteria. N e v e r -
married p e o p le w h o m et all the other criteria were exclu d ed . T h e M C V
Index, as u n so p h istic ate d as it is, h a s a se rio u s purpose: It c a p t u r e s a se t
o f behavio rs t h a t tog eth er typify ( th o u g h o b v io u sly do not d e fin e ) so lid
citizens. H a v i n g m any such citizens is im p o r ta n t for the c r e a t i o n o f
peaceful an d prosperous c om m u n ities. T h e figure below s h o w s w h at
T h e M C V In d e x , b e fo re a n d a f t e r c o n tro llin g f o r I Q
T h e p rob a b ility o f s c o r i n g y e s " on the

M id d le C l a s s V a l u e s I n d e x
W hites 51%
B lacks 20% fe
L atin os 31% |
a person o f average age and average IQ (100)
Whites 48%
B lacks 32% |
L atin os 45%
i i i i
0% 20% 40% 60%
MO The N ational ( Context
h a p p e n s w h e n t lie M C'V Index is applied to different e thnic groups, first

ad ju stin g on ly tor age an d then c on trollin g for IQ as well. (In in ter
p re tin g th e se d ata, bear in mind that large num bers of p eop le of all e t h
n icities w h o did not score yes are leading virtuous and prod uctiv e
lives.) T h e e th n ic disparities remain instructive. Before c on trollin g tor
IQ , large d isp arities separate both L atin o s and blacks from whites. But
g iv e n a v e r a g e IQ, the L atino-w hite difference shrank to rhree p e r c e n t
age points. T h e difference between blacks and whites and L arin o s re
m a in s su b sta n tia l, th oug h only about half as large us it was before
c o n t r o ll i n g tor IQ. T h is ou tc o m e is not surprising, given what we hav e
alread y s h o w n ab out eth n ic differences o n the in dicators that go into
the M C V In d e x , but it nonetheless p oin ts in a sum m ary fashion to a
c o n t i n u i n g d iv erg en c e betw een blacks and the resr of the A m e r ic a n
p o p u la t io n in s o m e basic social and e c o n o m ic behaviors.
A M O R E R E A L I S T I C V IE W O F E T H N I C D IS P A R IT IE S IN
S O C IA L A N D E C O N O M IC IN D IC A T O R S
It o n e of A m e r i c a s goals is to rid itself ot racism and institutional d is

c r im in a tio n , then we should w elcom e the finding th at a L a tin o and
w hite of sim ila r co g n itiv e ability have the sam e c h an c es of gettin g a
b a c h e l o r s d eg re e and w orking in a w hite-collar job. A black with rhe
s a m e c o g n i tiv e ability has an even higher c h an ce than either the L atin o
or w hite of h a v in g those goo d things h ap p en . A L atino, b lack, and white
ot sim ilar c o g n itiv e ability earn annual w ages within a few hundred d o l
lars ot o n e another.
S o m e e t h n i c differences are not washed away by c on trollin g either
for in te llig e n c e or for any other variables that we ex am in ed . W e leave
th o se r e m a in in g differences u n ex p lain ed and look forward to learning
from our c o lle a g u e s where the e x p la n a tio n s lie. W e urge only that they
e x p lo re th o se e x p la n a tio n s after they h a v e extracted the role often
the large r o l e that co g n itiv e ability plays.
S im ilarly, the e v id e n c e presented here should give everyone who
w rites an d talks about e th n ic in equalities reason to av oid flam boyant
rh eto ric a b o u t e th n ic oppression. Racial an d ethnic differences in this
c o u n try are se e n in a new light when co g n itiv e ability is added to rhe
picture. A w a re n e ss of these relationships is an essential first step in try
in g to c o n s t r u c t an eq uitab le A m eric a.
Chapter 15
The Demography of Intelligence
When people d ie , they are not replaced i me for one hy babies who will develop
identical IQ s. If the neu> babies grow up to have system atically higher or lower
IQ s than the people who die, the national distribution of intelligence changes.
M ounting evidence indicates that demographic trends are exerting downward
pressure on the distribution of cognitive ability in the United States and that
the jrressurcs are strong enough to have social con sequ en ces.
Throughout the West, modernization has brought falling birth rates. The
rates Jail faster for educated women than the un ed u cated . Because education
is so closely linlced with cognitive ability, this tends to producc a dysgenic ef
fect, or a downward shift in the ability distribution. Furtherm ore, education
leads women to have their babies later which alone also produces additional
dysgenic fyressures.
The professional consensus is that the U n ited S tates has experienced dys
genic pressures throughout either most of the century (the optimists) or all o f
the century ( the p essim ists). Women o f cdl rac e s an d ethnic groups follow this
pattern in similar fashion. There is some evidence that blacks and Latinos are
experiencing even more severe dysgenic p ressu res than whites, which could lead
to further divergence between whites an d other groups in future generations.
The rules that currently govern im m igration [rrovide the other m ajor source
o f dysgenic pressure. It appears that the m ean IQ o f immigrants in the 19 8 0 s
works out to about 95. The low IQ m ay not be a fnoblem; in the p ast, im
migrants have sometimes shown targe in creases on such m easures. Rut other
evidence indicates that the self-selection frrocess that used to attract the clas
sic American immigrant brave, hard w orking, im aginative, self-starting,
and often o f high IQ has been changing, a n d with it the nature of some of
the immigrant population.
Putting the pieces together, something worth worrying about is happening
to the cognitive capital o f the country. Im pro ved health, education, arid child
hood interventions m ay hide the dem ographic e ffe c ts, hut that does not reduce
their importance. W hatever good things we can accomplish with changes in

the environm ent would be chat much more effective if they did not have to fight
a demographic head wind.
a far, we h a v e b e e n tre a tin g the distribution o f in telligence as a fixed

entity. B u t as the p o p u la tio n replenishes itself from g e n e ra tio n to
g e n e r a tio n by birth an d im m ig ration , the people w h o pass from the
s c e n e are n o t g o i n g to b e replaced, on e for one, by o th e r p e o p le with
th e s a m e IQ .scores. T h is is w hat we m ean by the dem o grap hy of in te b
ligen c e. T h e q u e stio n is n o t w hether d em o g rap h ic processes in and of
th e m s e lv e s c a n h a v e an im p a c t on the distribution o f scores th at m uch
is c e r ta in but w h at a n d how big the im pact is, c om pared to all the
o th e r forces p u s h in g the d istribution around. M o u n tin g e v id e n c e indi-
c a t e s that d e m o g r a p h ic tren d s are exerting downward pressures on rhe
d istrib u tio n o f c o g n itiv e ability in the U n ite d S ta te s an d that the p res
sures are str o n g en o u gh to h a v e social consequences.
W e will refer to this d ow n w ard pressure as dysgenesis, b o rrow ing a
te rm from p o p u la tio n biology. However, it is im p ortant o n ce aga in not
to be sid etra c k ed by the role of g enes versus the role o f e n v iro n m e n t.
C h i l d r e n re se m b le their p a re n ts in IQ, for whatever reason, a n d i m
m ig ra n ts a n d th eir d e s c e n d a n ts may not d u plicate the d istribution of
A m e r i c a s r e sid e n t c o g n itiv e ability distribution. If w o m en w ith low
sc o res are r e p r o d u c in g m o r e rapidly th an w o m en with h igh scores, the
d istrib u tio n o f scores will, oth e r things equal, decline, n o m atter
w h e th e r rhe w o m e n with th e low scores cam e by them through natu re
o r n u r t u r e . " 1M o r e generally, if p op u latio n growth varies across the range
o f IQ scores, rhe n e x t g e n e r a tio n will h a v e a different d istribution of
s c o r e s / In trying to foresee c h an g es in A m e r ic a n life, w hat m atters is
how the d is tr ib u tio n of in te llig e n c e is changing, more th a n why.
O u r e x p lo r a t i o n o f th is issue will proceed in three stages. First, we
w ill describe th e state o f k n o w le d g e ab ou t when an d why d ysgenesis o c
cu rs. N e x t , we will look at the present state of affairs regarding differ
e n t i a l birth rates, d ifferen tia l age o f childbearing, a n d im m igration.
Finally, we will su m m arize the shap e o f the future as best we c a n discern
it a n d d e sc rib e the m a g n it u d e of the stakes involved.
The Demography of Intelligence .343
T H E EV O L V IN G U N D E R S T A N D IN G O F D Y SG E N E SIS
T h e u n d e rsta n d in g o f dysgenesis h as b e e n a c o n t e s r between p e ssim ists

an d optim ists. For m any d ec ad es w h en p e o p l e first began to think s y s
tem atically a b o u t in telligence and r e p r o d u c t i o n in the late n i n e t e e n t h
century, all was p essim ism . T h e fertility ra r e in E n g la n d b eg an to fall in
rhe 1870s, a n d it did no t take long for e a r l y s t u d e n t s o f d em o g rap h y t o
n o tice th at fertility was d e c lin in g m o st m a r k e d l y at the upper levels o f
social status, w here the people were p r e s u m e d to he smarter.' T h e larg er
fam ilies were tu rn in g up disp ro p o r tio n a te ly in t h e lower classes. D a r w in
h im se lf h ad n o red that even within the l o w e r classes, the sm aller f a m
ilies had rhe brighter, the m ore p r u d e n t, p e o p l e in them.
A ll rhat was n e e d e d to con c lu d e th at t h i s p a t t e r n of rep rod uctio n was
bad news for rh e gen etic legacy was a r i t h m e t ic , argu ed the British s c h o l
ars around rhe turn of the tw entieth c e n t u r y w h o wanted to raise th e
in telligen ce of rhe p o p u la tio n through a new sc ie n c e that they c a lle d
e u g e n ic s.141 T h e i r in fluence crossed the o c e a n to rhe U n ite d S t a t e s ,
where the flood of im m igrants from R u s s i a , e a ste r n Europe, an d th e
M e d ite r r a n e a n raised a sim ilar c o n c e rn . W e r e those huddled m a sse s
bringing to o ur shores a biological i n h e r i t a n c e in co nsistent with the
A m e r i c a n way of life? S o m e A m e r ic a n e u g e n i c i s r s thou ght so, an d they
said as m u ch to the C o n gress when ir e n a c t e d rhe Im m igration A c t o f
1924, as we d esc rib ed in the I n t r o d u c t i o n . 1 1 T h e n cam e scien tific e n
l ig h te n m e n t the im m igran ts did n o t s e e m to he h arm in g A m e r i c a s
genetic legacy a hit followed hy the te rro rs of nazism and its p e r v e r
sio n o f e u g e n ic s th a t effectively wiped t h e id e a from public discourse in
the W est. But at bo tto m , the V icto ria n e u g e n i c i s t s and their su c c esso rs
had d etec ted a d e m o g ra p h ic p attern t h a t s e e m s to arise with g r e a t
(th o u g h no t u n iversal) con sisten c y a r o u n d th e world.
For this story, let us turn first to a p h e n o m e n o n about w hich th e re
is no serious controversy, the dem ographic transition. T h r o u g h o u t t h e
world, the p r e m o d e r n period is c h a ra c te riz e d by a b alan ce betw een h i g h
d e ath rates a n d h igh birth rates in w h i c h rhe p o p u la tio n rem ain s m o r e
or less c o n sta n t. T h e n m od ern iz ation b r i n g s b e tte r hygiene, n u tritio n ,
an d m ed ic in e, and d e ath rates begin to fa ll. In th e early p hases o f m o d
ernization, birth rares rem ain at their t r a d i t i o n a l levels, su stain ed by
deeply e m b e d d e d cultural an d social t r a d i t i o n s t h a t en courag e b ig f a m
ilies, an d p o p u la tio n grows swiftly. B u t culture an d trad ition even tu ally

g iv e way to th e attractio ns o f sm aller fam ilies and the p rac tic a l fact rhat
w h e n few er c h ild r e n die, fewer children need to he b o m to a c h ie v e the
s a m e e v e n t u a l state of affairs. Intrinsic birth rates begin to d ec lin e, and
e v e n t u a l ly th e p o p u la tio n reaches a slow- or no-growth sta t e .1,11
T h e fallin g birth rate is a well know n and widely studied feature of
th e d e m o g r a p h i c transition. W h a t is less well know n, but seem s to be
true a m o n g W e ste r n cultures that h a v e passed through the d e m o g ra p h ic
tr a n s iti o n , is th at declines in lifetime fertility occur d isp ro p o rtio n ately
a m o n g e d u c a t e d w om en and w om en o f higher social status (we will re
fer t o su c h w o m e n as p rivileged ), just as the V icto ria n s th o u g h t.'
W h y ? O n e reaso n is that privileged w om en lose their rep rod u c tiv e
a d v a n t a g e . In prem o dern times, privileged young w om en were betrer
n o u rish e d , b e tte r rested, and h ad better m edical care t h a n the u n p riv i
leged. T h e y m arried earlier an d suffered fewer marital d isru p tio n s.h T h e
n e t result w as th at, on average, they end ed up with m ore su rvivin g c h i l
d ren t h a n did unprivileged wom en. A s m od ernization proceed s, these
a d v a n t a g e s narrow. A n o th e r reason is th at m odern so c ieties provide
g re a te r o p p o r tu n itie s for privileged w om en to be so m e th in g oth e r th an
fu ll-tim e m o th e rs. Marriage and reproduction are often deferred for e d
u c a ti o n , for th o se w om en who h av e access to it. O n the av erage, they
s p e n d m o re o f their reproductive years in sch ool because they d o well
in s c h o o l , b e c a u s e their fam ilies support their schooling, or both. N e g
a tiv e c o r r e l a t i o n s between fertility an d ed u c atio n al status are likely to
be the result.
E v e n a fte r the school years, m oth erh oo d imposes greater cost in lost
o p p o r t u n i t i e s o n a privileged w om an than on an unprivileged o n e in
rhe c o n t e m p o r a r y W est.9 A child c o m p lica tes h av in g a career, an d may
m a k e a c a r e e r impossible. Ironically, even monetary' costs work ag a in st
m o t h e r h o o d a m o n g privileged wom en. By our definition, privileged
w o m e n h a v e m o re m oney than deprived w om en, but for the privileged
w o m a n , a c h il d entails ex p en ses th at can strain ev en a h igh in c o m e
from c h ild c a r e for the infant to the cost o f m o v in g to a n e x p e n siv e su b
urb t h a t h a s a g o o d school system when the child gets older. In p la n n in g
for a b a b y a n d privileged w om en tend to p lan their b a b ies carefully
su c h c o s ts are n o r considered o p tion al but what must be sp e n t to raise
a c h il d properly. T h e cost o f children is on e more reason that p rivileged
w o m e n b e a r few child ren and p o stp o n e the ones they d o b e a r .10
M e a n w h i le , child ren are likely to im pose few op p ortunity costs on a
The Demography of Intelligence 345
very poor w o m an ; a c areer is not u su a lly s e e n as a realistic o p t i o n .

C h ild r e n c o n tin u e to h av e the sam e a t t r a c t i o n s th a t h a v e alw ays led
young w o m e n to find m o th e rh o o d in tr in s ic a lly rew arding. A n d for
w om en near the poverty line in m o st c o u n t r i e s in the c o n t e m p o r a r y
W est, a baby is either free or e v e n p ro fita b le , d e p e n d i n g o n the sp e c ific
term s ot the welfare system in her country.
T h e D em ographic T r a n s i t i o n E l s e w h e r e
T h e generalizatio ns in rhe text may he sta te d with c o n fid e n ce about most,

com m unities in rhe West. Elsewhere, th ere is srill m u ch to he learned.
Japan has passed through the d e m og raph ic t ra n s itio n in that overall fer
tility has dropped, but reproduction has not sh ift e d as markedly toward t he
lower end of rhe scale of privilege as in t h e W e s te rn d e m o c ra c ie s ." T h e
reason may he that in Japan , as in other East: A s i a n societies, social o b lig
atio ns that encourage childbearing a m o n g th e e d u c a te d may take p r e c e
dence over rhe individualistic motives that m i g h t otherw ise co m pete with
parenthood. S im ila r considerations may a p p ly to Islamic co m m u n itie s as
well, where the dem ographic transition h a s b e e n w eak. T h e M o rm o n s ot
ter an A m e r ic an exam ple of a weak d e m o g r a p h ic t ra n s itio n .1" A n ac c o u n t
of rhe patterns of reproduction must c o n s id e r cu ltural, personal, religious,
and familial factors, as well as the more o b v i o u s social variables, su ch as
the rising levels o f education, w o m en s e m p l o y m e n t , and public h e a lt h .11
W h a t e v e r the reasons and w hatever t h e v a r ia t io n s trom c o m m u n i t y

to c om m u n ity, th e reality of th e d e m o g r a p h i c tr a n s it i o n in the m o d e r n
W est is in disp u table and so, it would s e e m , is th e im p lic ation . If r e p r o
d u ctiv e rates are correlated with in c o m e a n d e d u c a t io n a l levels, w h ic h
are th e m se lv e s correlated with in te llig e n c e , p e o p l e with lower i n t e l l i
g en c e would presu m ably be o u t p r o d u c i n g p e o p l e with high e r i n t e l l i
g en c e a n d thereb y p rod u cin g a d ysgen ic e f f e c t . 1'41 C a n we find e v i d e n c e
th at d ysgen esis is actually h ap p en in g ?
T h e early studies from the U n i t e d S t a t e s , E n g la n d , F ra n c e , a n d
G r e e c e all se e m e d to confirm the reality of d y s g e n e s is .1 In the 1 9 ^ 0 s,
the e m in e n t psych otn etrician R a y m o n d C a t t e l l was p re d ic tin g a loss o f
1.0 to 1.5 IQ p o in ts per d e c a d e , 16 while o t h e r s w ere p u b lish in g e s t i m a t e d
losses o f 2 to 4 I Q points per g e n e r a t io n . ' In 1951, a n o th e r s c h o l a r
g loom ily p red icted th at if this trend c o n t i n u e s tor less t h a n a c e n tu ry ,
England a n d A m e r i c a will be well on the way to b e c o m in g n arion s ot

near h alf-w its. 1''1T h e m ain source ot their pessim ism was th at the a v
erage I Q in large fam ilies was lower th an in sm aller families.
T h e n c a m e a period o f op tim ism . Its harbinger was Frederick O s b o r n s
Eugenic H y p o th e sis, first stated in 1940, which foresaw a eugenic effect
arising fro m gre a te r eq uality of social and ec on o m ic g o o d s and wider
availab ility ot birth c o n tr o l.11'1 In the late 1940s, d ata b e g an ro c o m e in
that se e m e d to co n firm this m ore san guine view. Surveys in S c o t l a n d
found r h a t S c o t t i s h s c h o o l children were g etting higher IQs, not lower
ones, d e s p ite th e fam iliar n e g a tiv e relationship betw een family size and
IQ . E x a m i n i n g this an d oth e r new studies, C artell reconsidered his p o
sition, c o n c l u d i n g th at past estim ates m ight not h av e ad eq u ately in
vestigated th e re la tio n sh ip between intelligence and m arriage rates,
which c o u ld h av e skew ed their results."1
T h e new o p tim ism got a boost in 1962 with the p u b lic atio n ol In
telligence a n d F am ily Size: A P arad ox R e so lv e d , in w hich the authors,
using a large M i n n e s o t a sam ple, showed how it was possible to h a v e both
a n egativ e r e la tio n s h ip b etw een IQ and family size and, a t the sam e tim e,
to find n o d y sg e n ic p a tte rn tor I Q . " T h e people who h ad n o children,
and w h o se fertilities were thus om itted from rhe earlier statistics, the'
authors su g gested , c a m e d isp rop ortion ately from the lower IQ p ortion
of the p o p u la tio n . F rom rhe early 19 60 s through 1980, a series o f s t u d
ies were p u b lish e d sh o w in g the sam e radically c h a n g e d picture: slowly
rising or a l m o s t stab le in telligence from gen era tion to g en era tion , d e
spite th e low er av erag e IQ s in the larger fam ilies.1* 1
T h e o p t i m i s m p roved to he ephem eral. A s scholars e x a m in e d new
data a n d r e e x a m in e d the original analyses, rhey found that the o p t i
mistic results turned o n factors that were ill understood or ignored at
rhe tim e th e stu d ies were published. First, co m p a riso n s betw een s u c
cessive g e n e r a t io n s tested with rhe sam e instrum ent (as in rhe S c o ttis h
studies) w ere c o n t a m i n a t e d by the Flynn effect, whereby IQ scores
(th o u g h n o t nec essarily c o g n itiv e ability itself) rise secularly over time
(see C h a p t e r 13). S e c o n d , the sam ples used in the m ost-cited o p t i
mistic stu d ie s p u b lish e d in the 1960s and 1970s were u n rep resen ta tiv e
of the n a t i o n a l p o p u la tio n . M o st of them cam e from nearly all-w hite
p o p u la tio n s o f states in the upper M i d w e s t . T w o o f the im p o rta n t stu d
ies p u b lish e d d u rin g this period were difficult to interpret bec au se they
were based n o t o n ly o n w hites but (in m ales (e stim a tin g fertility a m o n g
m ales p o s e s n u m e r o u s p roblem s, and m ale fertility can be quite differ-
enr from fem ale fertility) and o n sam p les t h a t w e re restricted to th e u p

per h a lf of the ability distribution, th e re b y m is s i n g whar was g o in g o n
in the lower halt."1
A p a r t from th ese tech n ical p roblem s, h o w e v e r , a n o t h e r feature o f th e
studies yieldin g o p tim istic results in the 1 9 6 0 s a n d 1970s lim ited th eir
applicability: T h e y were based on the p a r e n t s of th e baby bo om ers, the
ch ild ren bo rn b e tw e e n 1945 an d a b o u t 1 9 6 0 . In 1982, d e m o g r a p h e r
D an iel V in in g , Jr., o p en ed a new p h ase of t h e d e b a t e with the p u b l i c a
tion o f his cau tiou sly titled article, O n t h e P o ssib ility o f the R e e m e r-
gen c e of a D y sg en ic Trend with R e sp e c t t o I n t e l l ig e n c e in A m e r i c a n
Fertility D ifferen tials. '" V in in g presented d a t a fro m rhe N a t io n a l L o n
g itud in al S u rv e y co h o rts selected in 1966 a n d 1 9 6 8 ( t h e predecessors o f
the m uch larger 1979 N L S Y sam p le th at w e h a v e used so e x te n siv e ly )
su p p o rtin g his h y p oth esis that people w ith h i g h e r in telligence te n d to
h a v e fertility rates as high as or higher t h a n a n y o n e elses in periods of
rising fertility but rhat in periods ot fallin g b i r t h rate s, they tend to h a v e
lower fertility rates. T h e A m e r ic a n fertility rate h a d been falling w i t h
out a break sin c e rhe late 1950s, as the b a b y b o o m subsided, a n d V in-
ing suspected that dysgenesis was again u n d erw ay .
T h e n two researchers from the U n i v e r s i t y of T exa s, M a ria n V a n
C o u r t and Frank B ea n , finding no e v i d e n c e for an y respite during th e
baby b o o m in a natio n ally rep resen ta tiv e s a m p l e , d ete rm in e d th a t rhe
child less m e m b e rs ot the sam p le were n o r d is p r o p o r tio n a te ly low I Q a t
all; on the contrary, they had slightly h i g h e r IQ s t h a n people with c h i l
dren. V an C o u r t an d B ea n c o n c lu d e d t h a t t h e U n i t e d S ta te s h ad b e e n
e x p e rie n c in g an u n b ro k en dysgenic e ffe c t s i n c e th e early years of th e
c entury.'7
S in c e then, all the news h a s b een bad. A n o t h e r study ot the u p p e r
M id w est looked at the fertilities in the m i d - 1 9 8 0 s of a nearly a ll-w h ite
sam p le o f p e o p le in W isco n sin who had b e e n h i g h .school seniors as of
1957 an d fou n d a dysgenic effect c o r r e s p o n d i n g to about 0.8 IQ p o i n t
per g e n e r a t i o n / 1' A 1991 study based o n a w h o l l y differen t a p p r o a c h a n d
using the N L S Y suggests that 0 .8 per g e n e r a t i o n m ay be an u n d e r e s t i
m a te .4 T h i s study estim ated the sh iftin g e t h n i c m a k e u p of the p o p u l a
tion, g iv en the differing intrinsic birth r a t e s o f t h e v a rio u s ethnic g ro u p s.
S in c e the m a in eth n ic groups differ in a v e r a g e IQ , a shift in A m e r i c a s
ethnic m a k e u p im plies a c h a n g e in the o v e r a l l a v e r a g e IQ. E v en d i s r e
gard in g rhe im p a c t o f differential fe rtility w i t h in e th n ic groups, t h e
shifting e th n ic m ak eu p by itself would l o w e r t h e a v e ra g e A m e r i c a n I Q
by 0 . 8 p o i n t p e r generation. S in c e the differential fertility w ithin those

e t h n i c g ro u p s is lowering the av erage score for e ac h group itself (as we
sh o w later in th e c h ap ter), the 0 .8 estim ate is a lower bo u n d of the o v e r
all p o p u l a t i o n change.
T o su m m arize , there is still u ncertainty about w hether the U n i t e d
S t a t e s e x p e r ie n c e d a brief eu g en ic interlude after World W ar II. Van
C o u r t a n d B e a n c onclude it h a s been all d ow nhill since the early part
o f th e t w e n t ie t h century; oth e r researchers are unsure.101 T h e r e is also
u n c e r t a i n t y d e riv in g from the Flynn effect. Ja m e s Flynn h a s by now con-
v i n c e d e v e r y o n e that IQ scores rise ov er time, m ore or less everywhere
th e y a re stu d ied , but there rem ains little ag reem en t ab o u t w h at that
m e a n s . For th o se w ho believe th a t the increase in scores represents a u
t h e n t i c g a in s in c ognitive ability, the dysgenic effects m ay be largely
s w a m p e d by o v erall gains in th e general en v iron m en t. For those who
b e l ie v e t h a t th e increases in scores are primarily due to increased test
s o p h i s t i c a t i o n w ithout affecting g, the Flynn effect is m erely a sta tisti
c a l c o m p l i c a t i o n that must be tak en in to ac c o u n t w hen ev er c o m p a rin g
I Q sc o re s fro m different points in time or across different cultures.
B u t w ith in the scholarly com m unity, there is little d o u b t a b o u t d if
f e r e n tia l fertility or about w hether it is exerting dow nw ard pressure on
c o g n i t i v e ability. Further, the scholarly d e b a te of the last fifty years has
p ro g ressed : T h e m argin o f error has narrowed. S c ie n tific progress has
h e l p e d clarify the dysgenic effects without yet p rod ucing a precise c a l i
b r a t io n o f e x a c tly how m uch th e distribution of c o g n itiv e ability is d e
c li n i n g . T h i s leads to our n ext topic, the current state o f affairs.
D Y S G E N I C P R E S S U R E S IN A M E R IC A IN T H E EA RLY 1990S
F o r e t e ll in g th e future about fertility is a hazardous business, a n d fore

te l li n g it in term s o f IQ p o in ts per g e n e ra tio n is m ore hazardous still.
T h e u n k n o w n s are too many. W ill the ran ks of career w o m e n c o n tin u e
to e x p a n d ? O r m ig h t our g ran dd au ghters lead a revival o f the trad itional
fa m ily ? H o w will the e n v iro n m e n tal asp ec ts o f c o g n itiv e d e v e lo p m e n t
c h a n g e ( ju d g i n g from what h as h a p p e n e d to S A T scores, it could be for
w o rse a s well as better)?1 11 W ill the Fly n n effect c o n tin u e ? E v e n if it
d o e s, w h a t d o e s it m ean? N o o n e has any idea h ow these c o u n te r v a il
in g fo rc e s m i g h t play out.
For all th e s e reasons, we do no t put m u c h con fid en c e in any specific
p r e d ic t io n s a b o u t what will h a p p e n to IQ scores d e c ad e s from now. But
we c a n say w ith c o n sid erab le c o n fid e n c e w h at is h a p p e n i n g righ t n ow ,

and the new s is w orrisom e.1,21 T h e r e are three m a jo r factors t o ta k e in to
accou nt: the n u m b e r of child ren born to w o m e n at v a riou s I Q levels, th e
age at w hich they h a v e them , and the c o g n itiv e ability o f im m ig r a n ts .
C ognitive A bility an d N u m b er o f Children
D em o g rap h ers o fte n take a lifetime fertility o f a b o u t 2.1 b irth s as t h e di-

viding line b etw een h a v in g en o u gh c h ild re n to rep le n ish th e p a r e n t
g e n e ra tio n and h a v in g too few.1 1 B e a r th a t in m in d w hile e x a m i n i n g
the figure b elow sh o w in g the c o m p le te d fertility all the b a b ie s th ey
h av e ever h a d o f A m e r i c a n w o m en w ho h a d virtually c o m p l e t e d th e ir
ch ild b earin g years in 1992, broken dow n by th eir e d u c a tio n a l a t t a in -
T h e h ig h e r th e e d u c a tio n , the fe w e r th e b a b ie s
A v e rage n u m b e r o f children ever b o m

to w o m e n ages 3544 in 1992
3-
I-
L e ss than High Som e A ssociate B ach elo r s M A or
high school college degree degree higher
school
H ighest e d ucation al a tta in m e n t
Sourct'. B ach u 199 S, T a b le 2.
m ent. O v e ra ll, c o lleg e grad uates h ad 1.56 c h ild re n , on e c h ild less t h a n

the av erag e for w o m e n w ithout a h igh sc h o o l d ip lo m a . L et us c o n s i d e r
the ratio o f the two fertilities as a rough in d e x o f the d e g re e to w h i c h
fertility is tip p ed o n e way or the o th e r w ith regard to e d u c a tio n . A r a
tio greater t h a n 1.0 says the tip is tow ard th e lo w er e d u c a tio n a l lev els.
T h e actual ratio is 1.71, w h ich c a n be read as 71 p e rc e n t m o re b ir th s
a m o n g h ig h s c h o o l d ropouts th a n a m o n g w o m e n w h o g r a d u a te d fro m
college. A t least sin ce th e 1950s, the ratio in the U n ite d S t a t e s h a s b een

between 1.5 an d 1.85.1,41
W hat d o e s th is m ean for IQ? We may c o m p u te an e stim ate by using
what we k n o w ab o u t th e m e a n IQs o f the N L S Y w om en who reached
various levels of ed u c a tio n . O verall, these m ost recent d a t a on A m e r i
can fertility ( b a se d on w o m e n ages 35 to 4 4 in 1992, w h e n the survey
was tak en ) im p lie s that the overall average IQ o f A m e r ic a n m oth ers was
a little less t h a n 9 8 . T h i s is con sisten t with the analyses of A m e r i c a n
fertility th a t suggest a d ec lin e o f at least 0 .8 point per g en era tion .
T h is est im a te is stren gth en ed by using an altogether different slice of
the n atio n al picture, based on the birth statistics for virtually all babies
born in the U n i t e d S t a t e s in a given year, using the d a ta c o m p ile d in
Vital Statistics by the N a t i o n a l C e n t e r for H ealth S ta tistic s ( N C H S ) .
T h e most rec en t d ata a v ailab le as we write, for 1991, p rovid e m odestly
good news: T h e prop ortions o f children born to better-educated
w om en a n d therefore h igher-IQ wom en, on average- h av e been g o
ing up in th e last decad e. T h e proportion of babies born to w o m en with
sixteen or m o re years o f school (usually in dicating a c ollege d egree or
better) rose from 4.8 p erc en t in 1982 to 5.9 percent in 1991. T h e p r o
portion of b a b ies born to w om en with so m eth in g m ore than a high
school d ip lo m a rose from 34-2 percent to 38.2 percent sm all c h a n g e s
bur in the righ t direction. T h e bad news is that the proportion of c h il
dren born to w om en with less than a high school ed u c a tio n h as risen
slightly o v e r the last d ec ad e, from 22 percent to 24 p ercent, attributable
to an especially steep rise a m o n g white w om en since 1986.
In trying to use rhe e d u c a tio n a l inform ation in Vital Statistics ro e sti
m ate the m e a n IQ of m o th ers in 1991, it is essential to a n tic ip a te the
eventual e d u c a tio n a l att a in m e n r of w om en who had b a b ies while they
were still of sc h o o l age. A fte r d oin g so, as described in rhe n o te ,1'0' the e s
timated a v e r a g e IQ of w om en who gave birth in 1991 was 98. C o n s i d e r
ing that c e n s u s d ata a n d the Vital Statistics data c o m e from different
sources and ta k e two different slices o f the picture, the sim ilarities are re
markable. T h e c o n c lu sio n in both cases is th at differential fertility is e x
erting dow nw ard pressure on IQ. A t the end o f the chapter, we show' how
much im p ac t c h a n g e s o f this size may have on A m e r ic a n society.
W h a t of e v id e n c e a b o u t dysgenesis in the N L S Y itself? A s o f 1990,
the w om en o f the N L S Y , ages 25 to 33, still had m any ch ild h earin g years
ahead. P resu m ab ly the new births will be weighted toward m ore highly
educated w o m e n with h ig h e r IQs. T h erefore the current m e a n IQ o f the
The Demography of Intelligence 35 1
m others o f rhe N L S Y child ren will rise. C u r r e n t l y , however, it sta n d s at

less than 9 6 . 11,1
Cojsjmmv A bility arid M o th ers A ge
P o p u latio n grow th d ep e n d s no t just on t h e to ta l n u m b e r of c h ild re n

w om en hav e b u t o n how old they are w h en they h a v e th em . T h e e ffe c t
is dysgenic w h en a low -IQ group has babies at a y o u n g e r age t h a n a h i g h '
IQ group, e v e n if the total n u m ber o f c h il d r e n b o r n in e ac h group e v e n -
tually is the sam e. B ecause this c o n c l u s io n m a y no t be in tu itiv ely
ob vio us, think of a sim plified e x am p le. S u p p o s e th at ov er several g e n -
orations G r o u p A a n d G r o u p R av erag e e x a c t l y rhe sam e n u m b e r of c h i l
dren, but all the w o m e n in G r o u p A alw ays h a v e their b ah ies on th e ir
tw entieth birthday an d all the w om en in G r o u p R h a v e their c h ild re n
on their th irtieth birthday. T h e w om en in g r o u p A will p rod uce th ree
g e n e ra tio n s o f c h ild ren to every two p ro d u c e d by G r o u p B. S o m e t h i n g
like this h as boon h a p p e n in g in the U n i t e d S t a t e s , as w o m e n o f low er
in telligen ce h a v e babies younger th a n w o m e n ot higher in te llig e n c e .
T h e N L S Y o n c e a g a in b e c o m e s the best s o u r c e , b e c a u se it p ro v id e s ag e
and e d u c a tio n a lo n g with IQ scores.
T h e old est w o m e n in the N L S Y bad r e a c h e d the age of 33 in 1990,
by w hich time the great m ajority of first b i r t h s h a v e taken p la c e .1-'1W e
c a n thus get a g oo d idea o f how age at first b irth or av erag e age a t all
births varies with c o g n itiv e ability, re c o g n iz in g th at a sm all m in o rity of
w om en, m ostly highly ed u c ated and at the u p p e r p ortion of the IQ d i s
tribution, will even tu ally nudge those resu lts slightly.141 W e will n o t try
to c o m p e n s a t e for these m issing data, b e c a u s e rhe brunt of our a r g u m e n t
is th at the tim in g of births has a dysgenic e ffe c t. T h e biases in the d a ta ,
reported in the tab le below for w om en w h o w ere 30 or older, te n d to
understate the true m agn itu d e ot age d iffe r e n c e s by IQ .1401
T h e a v e ra g e a g e at first birth was a few m o n t h s p ast rhe 23d b i r t h
day. T h i s va ried widely, however, by c o g n i t iv e class. C o m b i n i n g all the
eth nic group s in the N L S Y , w om en in th e b o t t o m 5 p erc en t ot in t e l l i
g en c e h a v e th eir first baby m ore than s e v e n years you n ger th a n w o m e n
in rhe top 5 p e rc e n t. W h e n these figures a r e c o m p u t e d tor the a v e r a g e
age for all births (n o t just the first birth, a s in th e ta b le ), w o m e n in the
b o tto m 5 percen t h a v e their babies (or all ot th e o n e s they h av e h a d by
their early th irties) at an average of five a n d a h a l f years earlier. T h i s
gap will grow, no t shrink, as the N L S Y w o m e n c o m p l e t e their ch ild -
A g e at C h ild b earin g
C o g n i t i v e C la s s M ean A g e at F irst B irt h

1 Very bright 27.2
II B r i gh t 25.5
III N o r m a l 23. 4
I V Dull 21. 0
V Ve r y dull 19.8
O v e r a l l average 23.1
b e a r in g years. E v e n using rhe current figures, w om en in the bo tto m 5

p e r c e n t o f th e I Q d istribution will h av e about five g en era tio n s for every
four g e n e r a tio n s o f the top 5 percent. A large and often ignored dys-
g e n i c pressure from differences in age at birth is at work.
E T H N I C D I F F E R E N C E S IN F E R T IL IT Y
W h a t e v e r th e e t h n i c differences in cog n itiv e ability are now, they may

c h a n g e if e t h n i c gro u p s differ in the e x te n t to which their fertilities are
d y sg en ic o r not. In the long run, the vec to r of d em o grap h ic trends in
i n t e llig e n c e c o n v e r g in g or diverging across ethnic group s could p ro
fou n dly affec t A m e r i c a s future.
Fertility R ates hy Ethnicity
In th e 1992 a n a ly sis of A m e r ic a n fertility using the C u rre n t P o p u latio n

S u r v e y ( C P S ) to w h ich we referred for a nat ional estim ate o f d y sg e n e
sis, w o m e n a g e s 35 to 44 had given birth to an average of 1.94 children:
1.89 for w h ite w o m e n , 2.23 for black w om en, and 2.47 for L a tin o
wom en."11 S i m i l a r or larger ethnic differences hav e characterized fertil
ity d a t a for as lo n g as such d ata h av e been available, an d they h a v e led
to a w id esp read b e l ie f that so m e th in g in black an d L a tin o culture leads
th e m to h a v e larger n um bers o f children th a n whites do. We d o no t d i s
p u te that c u ltu r e c a n influence family size the C a t h o li c trad ition
a m o n g L a t i n o s m a y foster high overall birth rates, for e x a m p le but the
tr e n d s for th e th re e groups are sim ilar o n ce the role of e d u c a tio n a l level
is h e l d c o n sta n t. C o n s i d e r the figure below, based on the 1992 C P S study
of fertility, a g a in u sin g w om en in the 35 to 4 4 age group w ho h av e nearly
c o m p l e t e d th eir c h ild b e a rin g years.
T h i s figure rep resen ts alm o st total lifetime fertilities, and it tells a
s im p le story. In all three groups of wom en, more ed u c a tio n m e a n s lower
The Deynography oj Intelligence 3 53
F e rtility fa lls a s e d u c a tio n a l level r i s e s in sim ila r fa sh io n fo r b la c k ,

w h ite, a n d L a t i n o w o m e n
A v e r a g e n u m b e r o f ch ildren e v e r b o r n
to w o m e n a g e s 35^4-4 in 1 9 9 2
l-
L e ss than High Som e A sso c ia te B ach elor s MA or
high school college d e g re e degree higher
school
H ighest e d u c a tio n a l a t t a i n m e n t
s . m u v : Rachu 1 W , Table 2.
fertility. T h e two m inority groups h a v e h i g h e r overall fertility, b u t n o t

by m uch w h en e d u c a tio n is taken in t o a c c o u n t . G i v e n the k n o w n r e
latio n sh ip b etw een IQ and e d u c a t io n a l a tt a in m e n t, fertility is also
falling with rising I Q for e ac h e th n ic g r o u p . Indeed, if one tries to look
into this relatio n sh ip by assigning I Q e q u i v a l e n t s based o n the r e l a
tion sh ip o f e d u c a tio n a l a tta in m e n t a n d c o g n i t i v e ability in rhe N L S Y ,
it ap p ears th at after eq u atin g for IQ , b l a c k w o m e n at a g iv en IQ lev el
m ay h av e lower fertility rates than e i t h e r w h ite or L a tin o w o m e n .1'1"1
M ay we th e n c o n c lu d e that w hites, b l a c k s , and L atin o s are o n a
d o w n h ill slop e together, neith er c o n v e r g i n g n o r d iverging in IQ ? N o ,
for two reasons. T h e first is th a t e a c h e t h n i c group has different p r o
p ortions o f w o m e n at different IQ l e v e ls. F o r ex am p le, black w o m e n
with IQ s of 9 0 a n d below probably h a v e a fertility rate no h ig h e r t h a n
th at ot w hite w o m e n with the sam e IQ s. B u t e v e n so, only 15 p e r c e n t
o f white w o m e n in the N L S Y fall in t h e 9 0 - a n d - b e l o w range, c o m p a r e d
with 52 p e rc e n t o f black w om en. T h e r e l a t i v e l y higher fertility rates ot
w o m en with low IQ s therefore h a v e a la r g e r im p a c t on the b lac k p o p
u latio n as a w h o le th an on the w hite. E v e n if tw o ethnic grou p s h a v e
e q u al birth rates at a giv en IQ, one group may h av e a larger proportion

o f its babies t h a n the other at that IQ. T h i s is illustrated by the n e x t
tab le, w h ich uses the N L S Y to see what the n ext g en era tio n looks like
so far, w h en rhe w o m e n o f the N L S Y had reached the ages o f 25 ro 3 3.
T h e N e x t G e n e r a t io n S o Far, for
T h r e e E t h n i c G r o u p s in th e N L S Y
A s o f 1 9 9 0 , the Pe rce n tage of

C h ild ren B o m to W omen with:
IQ s L e ss IQ s H ig h e r
than 9 0 than 1 1 0
W h ite s 19 22
Blacks 69 2
La tin o s 64 2
N a t io n a l population 33 15
D e c id in g w h eth er the d iscrepancy between whites and both blacks

and L a t i n o s im plies an in creasing gap in co g n itiv e ability would require
e x te n siv e m o d e lin g in volving many assum ptions. O n the face of it, the
d isc re p a n c ie s are so d ram atically large that the probability ot further
d iv e rg e n c e seem s substantial. Furtherm ore, insofar as w hites h a v e rhe
h igh e st p ro p o rtio n of college-educated w om en w ho are d elayin g c h il d
birth, the g ap b etw een whites and the other minorities is m ore likely to
D e la y e d C hild b earing A c r o s s Ethnic G r o u p s
T h e ages o f rhe women in the N L S Y ranged from 25 ro 3 3 as of our Iasi

observ ation o f them, meaning that more children remain to be horn, a dis
p rop ortio nate n umber of whom will he born to women at rhe higher lev
els of c o g n itiv e ability. T h is prevented us from using the N L S Y to make
any estim ate of the overall dysgenic effect. But the remaining ch ild bear
ing years are less ot a problem when comparing differentials am on g ethnic
groups. T h e ev id en ce suggests that better-educated women of all ethnic
groups p o stp o n e childbearing, to similar d e g r e e s / Based on this exp eri
ence, the differentials as they exist among ethnic groups in the 2 5 - 3 3 age
cohort will probably remain about the same through the rest ot rhe N L S Y
women's ch ild bearin g years, though rhe means for each group will p rob a
bly rise som ew hat. Insofar as an artifact exists, it presumably acts to u n
derstate the eventual mean for whites, since whites have rhe largest
proportion of wom en with college and advanced degrees, and therefore
presum ably the largest group o f high-IQ women delaying childbirth.
in crease th a n to d im in ish as the N L S Y w o m e n c o m p lete their c h i l d '

bearing years.
A g e at Birth by Ethnicity
T h e sec o n d p o te n t ia l source of d iv e r g e n c e b e tw e e n eth n ic groups lies

in the ages at w h ic h w om en are h a v in g t h e i r c h ild ren . For N L S Y m o t h -
ers, the av e ra g e ag es w hen they gave b ir th a s o f 1 990 (w hen they w ere
ages 25 to 33) were 24-3 for whites, 2 3 .2 fo r L a t i n o s , and 22.3 for b la c k s.
O n c e again, th ese gaps m ay be e x p e c te d to in c r e a s e as the N L S Y w o m e n
c o m p le te their ch ild b earin g years. If th e s e a g e differentials persist o v e r
tim e (a n d they h a v e been found for as l o n g as the statistics for th e d if
ferent groups h a v e b e e n av ailab le), th ey w ill p ro d u c e increasing d i v e r
gen c e in the m e a n cogn itiv e ability o f s u c c e s s iv e generation s for th e
th ree groups. E v id e n c e from oth e r s o u r c e s c o n fir m s the N L S Y , fin d i n g
an in creasin g gap betw een white a n d n o n w h it e (primarily b l a c k )
w o m en in w h e n their reproductive liv es b e g i n , and also in their l ik e l i
h o o d of re m a in in g childless.44
M others and C h ildren in the N L S Y
A s we leave this topic, we may see how' t h e s e various forces have p la y e d

ou t so far in the successive g e n e r a tio n s o f th e N L S Y . T h e N L S Y h a s
been testing the ch ild ren of its original s u b j e c t s , which should e v e n t u
ally provide o n e ot the c le a n e st e stim a te s o f d y sg e n ic trends within e t h
nic groups. T h e version o f an IQ m e a s u r e that the N L S Y uses is th e
Peabody Picture Vocabulary T est ( P P V T ) , a highly reliable, g -lo a d e d
test that d o es n o t require that the c h ild b e a b le to read. It was norrned
in 1979 with a n a tio n a l sam p le of 4 , 2 0 0 c h i l d r e n to a m ean of 100 a n d
a stan dard d e v ia tio n o f 15.
If we take th e N L S Y results at fa c e v a l u e , A m e r i c a n in tellig en c e is
plun ging. T h e m e a n o f the entire s a m p l e o f N L S Y children tested in
198 6 and 1988 is only 9 2, m ore t h a n h a l f a stan d a rd d eviatio n b e lo w
the n a tio n a l m e a n . W e c a n n o t take th e s e re su lts at face value, h o w ev er.
T h e N L S Y s sa m p lin g w eights m ak e th e re su lts representative o f th e
ch ild ren o f a n a tio n a lly rep resen ta tiv e s a m p l e o f w o m en who were o f
certain ag e r an g es in the years the te sts w e re g i v e n which is subtly b u t
im p ortan tly d ifferen t from b ein g a r e p r e s e n t a t i v e sam ple o f A m e r i c a n
c h ild re n .45 B u t a lth o u g h it is n o t p o s s ib le t o in terp ret the overall c h i l
d r e n s m e a n w ith any con fid en c e, it is p o s s i b l e to com pare the c h il d r e n
o f w om en in different e th n ic groups. T h e results for c h ild ren at leasr six

years old a n d their m others, show n in the table below, in d ic ate that the
gap b etw een the child ren is larger than the gap sep aratin g the m others,
E t h n i c D i f f e r e n c e s in T e s t S c o r e s in T w o G e n e r a t i o n s
G a p S eparating G a p S ep a ra tin g
E th n ic the M others the C h ild ren
C o m p a r is o n in I Q Points in IQ P o in ts
W hite-b lack 13.2 17.5
W h ite-L a tin o 12.2 14.1
by more t h a n 4 p oin ts in the case ot blacks and whites, by alm o st two

points in the case o f whites a n d Latinos. T h e re are tec h n ica l reaso ns to
hedge on an y more specific in terp retation o f these d a t a . 14'51 W e may at
leasr say th a t the results p oint in a worrisome direction.
Pulling these different views o f the situation together, the d a ta reveal

d em o grap h ic pressures for further ethnic divergence in IQ. W e will not
hazard a guess ab out the m agnitu de o f ethnic d iv erg en ce or its speed.
W ithin a n o th e r d ecade, assum ing that the N L S Y c o n tin u e s its testing
program, guesses will n o t be necessary. W h e n large n u m bers of rhe
N L S Y w o m e n ap p roach the end o f their child bearing years an d their
children h a v e been tested after reaching an age when IQ scores are s t a
ble, we no t only will he able to answer w hether and how' m u ch erhnic
groups div erged for that g en era tion of A m e r ic a n s but be able to pin
down answers ro m any o f the oth e r q uestions ab out d ysgenic effects n a
tionwide.
IM M IG R A T IO N
Im m igratio n is an ev en older A m e ric a n trip wire for im p assion ed d e

bate than d ifferen tial fertility, and the disputes c o n tin u e to the p resent
day.41* T h e reaso n is no t hard to find: A m e ric a h a s m ore p eo p le flowing
into it th a n any other country. A b o u t h a l f ot the w orlds m ig ran ts re
settling in n e w cou ntries are c o m in g to A m e ric a as we w rite.50 T h e p e o
ple already livin g here h av e always viewed this influx o f n ew com ers with
Regression to the Mean to the Rescue?
T h o se who dismiss the im portance of d y s g e n ic trends have mistakenly

latched o n to the statistical p h e n o m e n o n k n o w n as regression to the m e a n
as a magic cure-all. T h e editorial page o f rhe N e w York Times, no less, is on
record with an assurance to its re aders t h a t b ecause ot regression to the
mean, each successive generation of c h il d r e n of belnw-average IQ wom en
will get closer to the average a n d th erefore b l a c k ;ind white scores will rend
to converge.4' Alas, ir do esn t work rh ar way. T h e results on the P P V T p ro
vide a concrete illustration.
Su pp ose t hat we recalculate the g a p b e tw een t h e three ethnic groups in
two su ccessive generations, this tim e e x p r e s s in g t h e m in terms o f standard
deviations based on the m o th ers and c h i l d r e n s o w n standard deviations,
not on their place within rhe n atio n a l d is tr ib u t io n (as in the preceding
table).
R e g r e ss io n to the M e a n a n d E t h n i c D if f e r e n c e s
in T e st S c o r e s in T w o G e n e r a t i o n s
Eth n ic G a p S e p a r a t in g G a p S ep a ra tin g
C o m p a r is o n the M o t h e r s th e C h ild re n
in S D s in S D s
W hite-black 1.17 1.17
W hite - L atino 1.05 .93
C alcu lated in this way and shown in rhe t a b le a b ove, the gap between
white and L a tin o children h a s sh runk s o m e w h a t com pared to the gap
separating their mothers. T h e gap b e t w e e n w h ite and black ch ildren has
at least grown n o larger.4' W hy can we o b t a i n th is result and still sh ow a
growing gap in IQ points between t h e e t h n i c groups? T h e answer is that
m e a n referred to in regression to t h e m e a n isthe populations ownmean.
W hite ch ildren o f dull white w o m en will, o n a verage, be closer to the m e a n
for whites in their generation than th e ir m o t h e r s were in their generation.
A parallel sta tem en t applies to black ch ild re n of dull black women. Rut
this does n o t necessarily imply t h a t the I Q sc ore s o f black and w h ite
children must be closer to e a c h oth e r th a n t h e ir m o th e rs IQ scores were.
It is a slippery concept. S o m e p eople find it is helpful to remember rhar
regression to the m ean works both ways: If you start with a p o p u latio n of
dull children and then find rhe IQ s of t h e ir p aren ts, you will find that
rhe parents were closer to th e m e a n (o n a v e r a g e ) than their children.
Regression to rhe m ean is a statistical p h e n o m e n o n , nor a biological
one.
c o m p lic a te d re a c tio n s ran g in g from pride to alarm. J o h n H ig h atn a n d

o th e rs h a v e trac e d the crests and troughs o f nativism an d x e n o p h o b ia ,
o fte n lac ed w ith o p e n racism , in our history.11
R e c e n tly th e d e b a te o v e r im m igration has intensified, as the large in
flu x of im m ig r a n ts in th e 1980s, legal an d illegal, has reop en ed all the
o ld a rg u m en ts. T h o s e w h o favor o p en im m ig ration policies p o in t to the
ad a p ta b ility o f earlier im m igran t p o p u la tio n s and their c o n tr ib u tio n to
A m e r i c a s g re a tn e ss, and rem ind us t h a t the dire w arn ings of earlier anti-
im m ig ra tio n ists were usually u n fo u n d ed .S2 A n ti-im m ig ratio n ists in stead
em ph asize th e c o n c e n tr a tio n within so m e im m igrant groups of p eop le
w h o c o m m i t crim es, fail to work, drop out o f school, an d go o n public
assistance. T h e y see lim its in the A m e r i c a n cap ac ity for assim ila tin g
p e o p le from a lie n cultures and tor fin din g productive work for t h e m . 1
It seem s a p p a r e n t th at there are costs and benefits to any im m ig ra
tion policy a n d t h a t no e x trem e view, pro or con, is likely to be correct.
B ey o n d t h a t truism , it is ap p aren t th at the norm ative A m e r i c a n " will
und ergo a t least as large a ch an ge in the twenty-first century as he has
sin ce the o rig in a l settlem en t. T h e nearly 100 percen t of im m igran ts
from n o rth e rn a n d western Europe in the original settlem en t gave way
to in creasin g fraction s from A frica an d from southern and eastern E u
rope th ro u g h o u t th e n i n e te e n th century, th en ce to a large m ajority from
A s ia and L a t i n A m e r i c a today. A m e r i c a was remade several tim es ov er
by its im m ig r a n ts before, and we trust th e process will c o n tin u e . By 2 080,
ac c o rd in g to a typical estim ate, A m e r i c a s pop ulatio n will be less th an
50 p e rc e n t n o n - L a t i n o white, 15 percen t black, 25 percent L atin o , an d
o v e r 10 p e r c e n t A s i a n a n d other.'141 M ulticu ltu ralism of som e sort is c e r
tain. W h e t h e r it will be a fu n c tion in g m ulticulturalism or an u n ra v e l
ing on e is th e m a in q u estio n about im m igration, and not o n e we c a n
answer.
O u r first o b je c t i v e is simply to bring to p e o p le s a tt e n tio n that the
q u estio n is im p o rta n t. L eg al im m ig ration in the 1980s con tribu ted 29
percen t of th e U n i t e d S r a t e s net p o p u la tio n increase, m u ch m ore th a n
at any earlier p erio d in the postwar e ra .1151 If illegal im m ig ratio n could
be in clu d ed , the figure would be sign ificantly higher. Im m igratio n d o es
in d eed m a k e a d ifferen ce to the future o f the national d istribu tion o f in
tellig en c e. It m ay no t m ak e as m uch difference as births in term s of raw
n u m b ers, b u t th ere is also this c o n sid e ra tio n : W h e re a s policy c a n h a v e
only lo n g -term effects o n the co g n itiv e d istribution o f births, it c a n h a v e
large im m e d i a te effects on the natu re of rhe im m ig ran t p o p u la tio n .
T h e r e are few, if any, other d o m a i n s w h e r e p u b l ic policy could so d i

rectly m o ld th e c o g n itiv e sh ap e o f t h i n g s t o c o m e . M eanw hile, t h e n a
tion's p o litic a l groun d rules h a v e y et to a c c e p t t h a t the in te llig e n c e of
im m igran ts is a legitim ate topic for p o l i c y m a k e r s to think about.
Ethnicity and IQ a s They A pply to h n m ig ra tiu n
In trying to e stim a t e an e n v e lo p e of w h a t th e effects on the c o g n i t iv e

distribu tion m ig h t be, a useful first s te p is t o a s s u m e that im m ig ran ts to
the U n i t e d S t a t e s h av e the m e a n I Q t h a t h a s generally been fou n d
a m o n g p ersons o f th at ethnic g ro u p , th e n a p p ly those num bers to the
actual d istrib u tio n of im m ig ran ts by e th n i c ity . K e e p in g in mind t h a t we
are h o p in g to d o n o m ore than e s t a b l i s h a r a n g e of possibilities, we will
begin by follow in g R ic h a rd L y n n s c o m p u t a t i o n s based on a re v ie w of
rhe in te rn atio n al d a ta and assign m e a n s o f 105 to East A sians, 91 to P a
cific p o p u la tio n s, 8 4 to blacks, a n d 1 0 0 to w h i t e s . 11 W e assign 91 t o L a t i
nos. W e kn o w of n o d ata for M i d d l e E a st or S o u t h A sia n p o p u la tio n s
th at perm it e v e n a rough e stim a t e . T h e y a n d a n unclassifiable o t h e r
c o m p o n e n t in the im m igration s t a t is ti c s c o n s t i t u t e about 11 p e r c e n t ot
im m igran ts an d are om itted from t h e a n a ly s is. T h e ethnic ancestry o f
legal im m igran ts in rhe 1980s b r e a k s d o w n as follow s:1'" 1
L a tin o 4 1%
E ast and S o u t h e a s t A s i a n 21%
N o n - L a t i n o w hite 11%
B lack 9%
Filip in o 7%
M id d le East, S o u t h A s i a n , o t h e r 11%
A p p ly in g the assigned IQ m e a n s to th is b rea k d o w n , the m e a n I Q of

im m ig ran ts in the 1980s works o u t t o a b o u t 9 5 essentially u n c h a n g e d
from the 1960s a n d the 1970 s ( w h e n t h e s a m e procedure yields e s t i
m ates of 96 an d 95 re sp ec tiv ely ). A s t h e p r o p o rtio n o f n o n - L a t i n o
w hites d ro p p e d from 4 6 p e rc e n t o f i m m i g r a n t s in the 1960s to 11 p e r
c e n t in the 19 9 0 s, the p e rc e n ta g e ot E a st a n d S o u t h e a s t A sian s ro se from
6 percen t to 21 percen t, two c o u n t e r b a l a n c i n g trends regarding IQ .
M o d ify in g the estim ates o f e t h n i c I Q s d o e s n o t m ake m uch d iffe r
en ce. S o m e w o u ld argue that, t h e E a s t A s i a n m e a n is too high. S u p p o s e
we d rop it to 100. S o m e would a rg u e t h a t t h e L a t i n o m ean is t o o low.
S u p p o s e we in crease it to 94- W e c o u l d s h i ft th e black e stim a te u p or
360 The Natimuil Context
d o w n by large am o u n ts w ith o u t affecting th e overall m ean v e ry far. F id

d lin g with the n u m bers m o v e s the overall e stim a te d m ean by o n ly a b o u t
a p o in t or tw o for d efensible sets of values. T h e basic s t a t e m e n t is th a t
a b o u t 57 p e rc e n t o f legal im m ig ran ts in th e 1980s c a m e f r o m e th n ic
g ro u p s th a t h a v e scores sign ifican tly below the white a v e r a g e , and in
c o n s e q u e n c e the IQ m e an for all im m igran ts is likely to be b e lo w 100.
How' a b o u t the idea t h a t p eop le w h o are willing to pack u p a n d m o v e
to a s tra n g e p la ce in se arc h o f a bette r life are self-selected for d esirable
q u alities su c h as in itiative, d eterm in atio n , energy, and p e r h a p s in telli
g e n c e as well? G i v e n this plausible e x p e c ta tio n , why n o t a ssu m e th a t
the m e a n tor im m igran ts is significantly higher than a v e r a g e for their
e th n ic groups? H ere, the N L S Y p rovid es a s n a p s h o t of the e ffe c ts on t h e
d istrib u tio n o f in telligen ce ol rhe p eop le c o m in g across our borders, i n
sofar as we m ay c o m p a re the IQ s of those w h o were b o m a b r o a d w ith
those wrho were born in th e U n ite d States.
O v e ra ll, the IQ o f N L S Y m em bers who were born abroad w a s .4 s t a n
dard d e v i a t io n lou'er t h a n the m e an of th o s e w ho were b o r n in the
U n i t e d S t a t e s , p u ttin g rhe av erage im m ig ra n t for this c o h o r t at ab o u t
the 34th c e n t i le of the n a tiv e-b o rn p o p u la tio n . A b re a k d o w n o f th ese
results by e t h n ic groups reveals rhat different groups are m a k i n g differ
en t c o n tr ib u tio n s to this result. W h i te im m igran ts have sc o re s that put
th em a bit a b o v e the m e a n tor the n a tiv e - b o rn A m e ric a n p o p u la tio n
( th o u g h s o m e w h a t lower th an the m ean tor n ative-born A m e r i c a n
w h ite s). F oreign-horn b la c k s score ab o u t five IQ points h ig h e r than na-
r iv e -h o m blacks, for reaso ns we do n o t know. L atin o im m ig r a n ts h a v e
m e a n scores m o re than s e v e n p o in ts lower t h a n n ative-born L a t i n o s a n d
m ore th an a stan d a rd d e v ia tio n below the o v e ra ll natio n al n a t iv e - b o r n
m ean . T h e N L S Y gives n o in form ation on th e large im m ig ra n t p o p u la
tion from th e countries o f East A s ia an d V ie tn a m , who m ig h t be sign if
icantly b o o stin g the im m igran t m ean .
E v e n c o n sid e re d sim ply as c o g n i tiv e test scores, these re su lts must be
in terp reted very cautiously. Im m igran ts typically earn h ig h e r scores o n
tests as they b e c o m e a c c u ltu rated , e v e n on tests designed to b e culture
fair. " T h e e x tre m e ly large gap betw een n a tiv e-b o rn an d fo re ig n -b o rn
L a t i n o stu d e n ts seem s likely to reflect ad d itio n a l effects of p o o r English.
W e d o n o t know' it this rise w ith a c c u ltu ra tio n is enough to c o u n te r
b a la n c e th e o v erall .4 stan d a rd d e v ia tio n d isa d v a n ta g e of a s a m p le b o m
elsew h ere. N o n e th e le s s , k e e p in g all o f these qualification s in m ind , th e
kernel o f e v i d e n c e that m u st also be a c k n o w le d g e d is th at L a t i n o an d
black im m igran ts arc, ar least in the short run, p utting so m e d ow n w ard

pressure on the distribution o f intelligence.
Self Selection Past and. Present
M any readers will find these results counterintu itiv e the c o n c e p t o f

the h igh -ach ie vin g im m igrant is deeply ingrained in A m e r i c a n s view
of our c ou n try but a few m o m e n ts reflection, plus so m e ad d ition al
data, may m ake the results more u n d e rstan d a b le .159'
T h in k back to the im m igrant at the turn o f the century. A m e r ic a was
the Land of O p p o rtu n ity but th at was all. T h ere were no guarantees,
no safety nets. O n e way or another, an im m igran t had to make it o n h is
own. A d d to that the wrench of tearing h im self and family away from a
p lace where his people might have lived for centuries, the terrors o f h a v
ing to learn a new language and culture, often the prospect of w ork in g
at jobs he had never tried before, a dozen other reasons tor a p p r e h e n
sion, and the LJnited S tates had g o in g for it a crackerjack self-selection
m ech a n ism tor attracting im m igrants w ho were brave, hard-working,
im aginative, self-starting and probably smart. Im m igration c a n still
selecr for those qualities, but it d o es not h a v e to. S o m e o n e who c o m e s
here because his cousin offers him a job, a free airplane ticket, and a
place to stay is not necessarily self-selected for those qualities. O n the
contrary, im m igrating to A m eric a c a n be for that p erson a m uch easier
op tion than staying where he is.
E c on om ists h av e m ade c o n sid erable progress in un d erstan d in g h ow
the different types of im m igration (and all the ones in betw een) h a v e
played ou t in practice. To begin wirh, it has been d em onstrated b e y o n d
m u ch doubt that im m igrants as a w hole h a v e more steeply rising e a r n
ings than A m e r ic a n natives of eq u al age and m easured skills an d that,
after a relatively short ad ap tation period of ten to fifteen years, i m m i
grants of equal age an d education earn as m uch as n ativ es.10 H ere is e m
pirical support for the proposition th a t im m igrants ta k e n as a w'hole a re
indeed self-selected for qualities that lead to e c on o m ic success, a n d o n e
m ight e x p e c t co g n itiv e ability to be a m o n g them.
But the e x p erien ce o f different im m igran ts at different times h a s v a r
ied drastically. E c on om ist G e o rg e B o rjas h a s systematized the c o n d i tio n s
under w hich im m igrants will be self-selected from the upper a n d lower
tails o f the ability distribution. S u p p o se , he says, that you are livin g in
a foreign country, considering w h eth er to em igrate to A m e ric a . P r e
sumably a m ajo r con sid eration is your p o te n tial in co m e in the U n i r e d
S ta te s versus your in co m e it you stay put. Borjas proposes that this c a l

c u la tio n in te r a c ts with a p e rso n s earn ing potential. It m ak es sense tor
h igh -ability p e o p le to em igrate w hen they can reasonahly think that
they are b e i n g underrew arded in their h o m e country, relative to their
ability, a n d t h a t the U n ite d S ta te s rewards the sam e level of ability m ore
generously. It m a k e s sense for low-ability people to em igrate w h en they
can r e a so n a b ly th in k that the U n ite d S ta te s not only pays better for the
sam e w ork b u t p ro te c ts them against poor labor m arket o u tc o m e s (in
c o m p a r iso n to th eir birth country) with welfare p aym en ts and o th e r e n
title m e n ts.61 In o th e r words, the U n ite d S ta te s may be e x p e c te d to draw
h igh-ability workers from countries that hav e more e x te n siv e welfare
states a n d less in c o m e in equality than the U n ited S ta te s (such as W e s t
ern E u r o p e ) , a n d will draw low-ability workers from cou ntries that h a v e
less e x t e n s i v e w elfare states and higher incom e inequality (su ch as the
poorer c o u n tr ie s of the T h ird W orld).
B o rja s used c e n su s d ata from 1970 and 1980 to e x a m in e the e x p e r i
ence o f im m ig r a n ts from forty-one countries. In his analysis, he holds
c o n sta n t th e in dividu al im m ig ran ts schooling, age, marital status,
health, a n d the m etro p o lita n area where the im m igrant settled. By h o l d
ing c o m p l e t e d sc h o o lin g constant, Borjas also factored out so m e of the
in fluence o f c o g n itiv e ability. But the ed u c atio n al systems in the non-
E u ro pean c o u n t r i e s of origin (where we will focus our a tt e n tio n ) are
m u ch less efficien t at identifying talent th an the A m e r ic a n e d u c a tio n a l
system; m a n y b rig h t im m igrants h av e little formal ed u c atio n . W e may
think of th e u nm easu red residual that Borjas did no t hold c o n s ta n t as a
cluster o f p e rso n a l and cultural qualities, a m o n g which is so m e role for
c o g n itiv e ability. W ith this in mind, the Borjas d ata reveal two im p o r
tant fin din g s.
In the 1 9 6 0 s a n d 1970s, A m e r ic a b ec am e m uch m ore of a welfare
state. C o n s i s t e n t w ith that, the earnings p oten tial of the L a tin o im m i
grant g ro u p fell substantially from 1955 through 1980. A m o n g the non-
E u ro p ea n c o u n tr ie s, three o f the four steepest d eclines in earn in g s
p o te n tia l w ere a m o n g im m igran t groups from C o l o m b i a , the D o m i n i
c an R e p u b l ic , a n d M e x ic o , all large contributors to the L atin A m e r i c a n
im m ig ran t p o p u la tio n . M any of the other countries were no t included
in B o r ja s s fo rty -o n e countries, so we do not know w hether they followed
the s a m e p atte rn . A m o n g the L atin A m e r ic a n and L a ti n o - C a r ib b e a n
n ation s, o n ly th e im m igran t groups from C u b a , Brazil, an d P a n a m a had
im p ro v in g p o te n tial by B o rjass m e a su r e s. T h e 1980 M e xic an w a v e o f

im m ig ran ts h ad a n earn ings p o t e n t ia l a h o u t 1 5 percent lower t h a n t h e
w ave that arrived in 1955. For the D o m i n i c a n Republic and C o l o m b i a ,
the earn ings p o te n tia l o f the 1980 w a v e w a s m ore than 30 percent lo w er
th an those w h o c a m e in 1955, a d e c l i n e t h a t rem ains after h o ld in g e d
u c atio n , m arita l status, age, a n d l o c a t i o n c o n s t a n t .62
Similarly, the success of the early w a v e s o f West Indian blacks s e e m s
unlikely to repeat itself. In his b o ok E thn ic A m erica, T h o m a s S o w e ll d e
scribed the su ccesses o f West I n d ia n b l a c k immigrants, startin g fro m
early in rhe t w en tieth century, n o t in g a m o n g oth e r things that, by 1 9 6 9 ,
se c o n d - g e n e ra tio n W est Indian b l a c k s h a d a higher m ean in co m e t h a n
w h ite s." His a c c o u n t has since b e c o m e widely cited as e v id e n c e for
ev ery th in g from the in herent e q u a lity ot b la c k and white earn in g a b i l
ity to the m erits o f unrestricted i m m ig r a t i o n . T h e Borjas data i n c l u d e
three ot the m a jo r contributo rs o f h l a c k im m igran ts from that re g io n :
Ja m a i c a , H aiti, an d T rin id a d /T o b a g o . T h e earn ings potential o f t h e i m
m igran t c o h o rts from these c o u n trie s in 1 9 7 0 ranged from 31 to 3 4 p e r
c e n t less than A m e r i c a n n atives ( a fte r h o l d i n g education, marital s ta t u s ,
age, an d lo c atio n c o n s t a n t ) /'4 In 1 9 8 0 , t h e earnings potential from th e
m ost recent im m ig ran t waves from t h e s e three countries ranged from
26 to 52 percen t less than A m e r i c a n n a t iv e s . Im migrants from all th re e
c o u n tries are o n an extrem ely slow r o u te to in com e equality, w ith J a
m a ic a n s and H a iti a n s lagging b e h i n d e v e r y o n e ex c ep t the l o w e s t- r a n k
ing L atin A m e r i c a n countries. B o r j a s s s tu d y did not include im m ig ra n ts
from any c ou n tries in su b - S a h a ra n A f r i c a .
T h e results for E uro pean im m ig r a n ts were also consistent w ith th e
theory. B o r ja s s overall appraisal o f t h e d a t a is worth quotin g in full:
T h e e m p iric al analysis of the e a r n i n g s of im m igrants trom 41 d i f f e r

ent c o u n trie s using the 1970 a n d 1 9 8 0 censu ses shows that th e re a re
stro n g cou ntry -sp ecific fixed e ffe c ts in the (labor m arket) q u a lity of
foreign-horn persons. In p articular, p e r so n s from W estern E u r o p e a n
coun tries d o q uite well in the U n i t e d S t a t e s , and their c o h o rts h a v e
ex h ib ite d a general increase in e a r n i n g s (relative to their m e a s u r e d
skills) ov er the p ostw ar period. O n rh e o th e r hand, persons fro m less
d e v e lo p e d c o u n trie s d o n o t p e rfo rm w e l l in the U . S . labor m a rk e t a n d
their c o h o rts h a v e exhib ited a g e n e r a l decrease in earnings ( r e l a t i v e
to their m easu red skills) ov er t h e p o s t w a r period.01
T h e s e a n a ly s e s sh ou ld no t obscure rhe energy and ability that we o f

ten see a m o n g im m ig ran ts, w hether they are staffing the c h e c k o u t
c o u n te r at the c o m e r c o n v e n ie n c e store or teach in g classes in the n a
tio n s m o st a d v a n c e d research centers. T h e o b servations o f everyday life
and the s t a t is t i c a l generalizations we h av e just presented c a n both be
true at th e s a m e tim e , however.
H O W IM P O R T A N T IS D Y S G E N IC P R E SSU R E ?
Putting the p ie c e s to g eth er higher fertility and a faster gen era tio n al
cycle a m o n g th e less intelligent and an im m igrant p o p u la tio n that is
probably s o m e w h a t below the native-born av erage the case is strong
that s o m e t h i n g w orth worrying ab out is h ap p en in g to the c o g n itiv e c a p
ital o f the country. H o w big is the effect? If we were to try to put it in
terms of I Q p o i n ts per generation, the usual metric for such analyses, it
would be n early im p ossible to m ake the total c om e out to less than one
point per g e n e r a tio n . It m ight be twice that. Rut we h o p e we h av e e m
phasized t h e c o m p l i c a tio n s en o ugh to show why such estim ates are only
m argin ally useful. E v e n if an estim ate is realistic regarding the current
situation, it is im p o ssib le to predict how long it may be correct or when
and h ow it m ay c h a n g e . It may shrink or grow or rem ain stable. D e
m o g rap h ers d isa gree ab ou t m any things, but not that the further in to
the future we try to look, the more likely our forecasts are to be wrong.
T h i s le a d s to th e last issue that must be considered before it is fruit
ful to talk a b o u t sp ecific d em o grap h ic policies. S o w hat if the m e a n IQ
is d r o p p in g by a p o in t or two per g eneration ? O n e reason to worry is that
rhe d rop m ay he en larg in g eth nic differences in c o g n itiv e ability at a
time w h e n th e n a t io n badly needs narrowing differences. A n o t h e r
reason to worry is t h a t when the m e an shifts a little, the size of the tails
of the distribut ion c h a n g e s a lot. For e x am p le, assum in g a n o rm al d is
tribution, a th re e - p o in t drop at the average would reduce the p ro p o r
tion o f th e p o p u la t io n with IQ s ab ove 120 (currently the top d ecile) by
31 p e r c e n t a n d th e p rop ortion with IQs above 135 (currently the top 1
p e rc en t) hy 42 p e rc e n t. T h e proportion o f rhe p o p u la tio n with IQ s b e
low 8 0 (c u rr e n tly th e bo tto m decile) would rise by 41 percenr and the
p ro p o rtio n w ith IQ s below 65 (currently the bo ttom 1 p e rc en t) would
rise by 6 8 p e rc e n t. G i v e n the p redictive power of IQ scores, particularly
in rhe e x t r e m e s of th e distribution, c h an g es this large would profoun dly
alter m any asp ec ts (if A m e r i c a n life, n o n e t h a t we can chink of to the

good.
S u p p o se we select a s u b sa m p le o f t h e N L S Y , different in o n ly on e re
sp ect from the c o m p le te sam p le: W e r a n d o m l y d elete p ersons w ho have
a m ean IQ of m ore than 97, u n til w e r e a c h a s a m p le that h a s a m ean IQ
of 9 7 a m ere three points below t h e rneun of the full s a m p le .1(101
H ow different d o rhe crucial so c ia l o u t c o m e s look? For s o m e b e h a v
iors, not m u ch c hanges. M a rria ge rate s d o n o t change. W i t h a three-
point d eclin e at the average, d iv o r c e , u n e m p l o y m e n t , and d r o p o u t from
rhe labor force rise only m arginally. B u t t h e o v e ra ll poverty rate rises by
1 1 percen t a n d rhe proportion of c h i l d r e n l iv i n g in poverty thro ugho ut
the first three years of their lives rises by 1 3 percen t. T h e p ro p o rtio n of
child ren horn to single m o th ers rises hy 8 p erc en t. T h e p ro p o rtio n o f
m en interview ed in jail rises by 13 p e r c e n t . T h e prop ortion o f children
living with n o n p a r e n ta l c u sto d ia n s, ol w o m e n ever on welfare, and o f
people d ro p p in g ou t of high s c h o o l a ll rise hy 14 percent. T h e propor-
t ion ot y o u n g m e n prevented fro m w o r k i n g hy h e a lth p ro b lem s increases
by 18 percent.
T h is e x erc ise assum ed that e v e r y t h i n g e l s e bur IQ rem ain ed constant.
In the real world, things would n o d o u b t he m o re c o m p lic a te d . A c a s
c ad e ol secon d ary effects may m a k e s o c i a l c o n d i t i o n s worse t h a n we su g
gest or p e rh ap s not so bad. Bur rhe o v e r a l l p o in t is that an apparently
m inor shift in IQ could p rod u c e i m p o r t a n t social o u tc o m e s. T h ree
points in IQ seem to he n o th in g ( a n d in d e e d , they are n o t h in g in terms
ot u n d erstan d in g an in d ivid u a ls a b il it y ) , h u t a p o p u la tio n with an IQ
m ean rhat has slipped three p o in ts is lik e ly to be im p orta n tly worse oil.
Furtherm ore, a three-point slid e in rhe n e a r - te r m future is well within
Lhe realm o f possibility. T h e so c ial p h e n o m e n a rhat have b e e n so wor
risome tor the past few d e c a d e s m ay in s o m e d egree already reflect an
o n g o in g d ysgenic effect. It is w orth w o r r y in g ab o u t, and w orth trying ro
d o so m e th in g about.
A t rhe s a m e rime, it is n o r im p o s s i b l e to im agine m o r e hopeful
prospects. A f t e r all, IQ scores are r is in g w i t h the Flynn effect. T h e n a
tion c a n spend m ore m oney m o re e f f e c t i v e l y on c h il d h o o d in te rv e n
tions an d im p roved ed u c a tio n . W o n t th ese tend to keep this
th ree-po int fall and its c o n s e q u e n c e s f r o m ac tu ally h a p p e n i n g ? T h e y
may, but w h ate v e r good things we c a n a c c o m p l i s h with c h a n g e s in the
e n v ir o n m e n t w ould be that m u c h m o r e e f f e c t i v e if they did n o t hav e to
H o w W ould We K n o w T h a t IQ H a s B een Falling?
C a n the U n it e d States really have been experiencing falling IQ? Would

n o t we he able to see the consequences? Maybe we have. In 1938, R a y
m o n d C ar te l!, o n e of most illustrious psychometricians of his age, wrote an
article for the British Journal of Psychology, S o m e C h a n g e s in So c ia l life in
a C o m m u n it y with a Falling Intelligence Q u otient.67 T h e article was
eerily prescient.
In e d u c a tio n , C attell predicted that academic standards would fall and
the cu rricu lum would shift toward less abstract subjects. H e foresaw an in
crease in delinquency against society crime and wiI Itul dependency (for
e x a m p le , h a v in g a child without being able to care for it) would be in this
category. H e was not sure whether this would lead to a slackening of moral
c o d e s or a tte m p ts at tighter government control over individual behavior.
T h e response could go either way, he wrote.
H e predicted that a complex m o d e m society with a falling IQ would
h a v e to c o m p e n s a t e people at the low end o f IQ by a systematized relax
a t io n o f moral standards, permitting more direct instinctive satisfac
t io n s .6 In particular, he saw an expandin g role for what he called fantasy
c o m p e n s a t io n s . H e saw the novel and the cinema as the contemporary
m e a n s for satisfying it, but he added that we have probably not seen rhe
en d of its de ve lo pm e n t or begun to appreciate its dam aging effects on re
ality th in k in g habits concerned in other spheres ot life a prediction hard
to fault as o n e watches the use of T V in todays world and imagines the use
o f virtual reality helmets in tomorrow's.6'*
T urn in g to political and social life, he expected to see the developm ent
of a larger social problem group or at least o f a group supported, super
vised and patronized hy extensive state social welfare work. Th is, he fore
saw, would he inimical to that human solidarity and potential equality of
prestige w h ich is essential to democracy.1
tigh t a d e m o g r a p h ic head wind. Perhaps, for exam p le, m ak in g the e n

v i r o n m e n t b e tte r could keep the average IQ at 100, in stead o f falling to
9 7 b e c a u s e of th e d em o grap h ic pressures. But the sam e im proved e n v i
r o n m e n t c o u ld raise the average to 103, if the d em o g rap h ic pressures
w o u ld c e a se .
S u p p o s e t h a t downward pressure from dem o grap hy sto p p e d and
m a y b e m o d e s tly turned around in the oth e r d irection n o th in g dra-
m a tte , n o e u g e n i c surges in babies by h ig h - I Q w om en or d ra c o n ia n m e a
sures to s to p lo w -IQ w om en from h a v in g babies, just en o u gh o f a shift
so rhat the winds were at least h e a d i n g in t h e right direction. T h e n i m

p ro v em en ts in ed u c a tio n and c h i l d h o o d in te r v e n t io n s need not s t r u g
gle to keep us from falling beh in d ; th ey c o u l d bring real progress. O n c e
again, we c a n n o t predicr exactly w h a t w ould h a p p e n if the m e an I Q rose
to 103, for e x a m p le , but we c a n d e s c r ib e w h a t does h ap p e n to th e s t a
tistics w h en the N L S Y sam ple is a lte r e d s o t h a t its subjects h a v e a m e a n
o f 103.1711
For srarters, the poverty rate falls by 2 5 p e rc e n t. S o does the p r o p o r
tion o f m ales ever in terviewed in ja il. H i g h sch ool d ropouts fall by 28
percent. C h il d r e n living without th e ir p a r e n t s fall by 20 percent. W e l
fare recipiency, b o th tem porary an d c h r o n i c , falls by 18 percent. C h i l
dren horn o u t of wedlock d rop hy 15 p erc en t. T h e in c id e n c e o f
low-weighr births drops by 12 p e rc e n t. C h i l d r e n in the bo ttom d e c i l e
of h o m e e n v ir o n m e n t s drop by 13 p e r c e n t . C h i l d r e n who live in p o v e r t y
for the first three years o f their lives d r o p hy 2 0 percent.
T h e stories of falling and rising I Q are n o t m irror images of ea c h o th e r,
in part for te c h n ic a l reasons e x p la in e d in t h e note and partly b e c a u s e
the effects o f a b o v e - an d b e lo w - a v e ra g e I Q are often a sy m m e tric a l.11"1
O n c e again, we m ust n o te that the real w o rld is more c o m p lex t h a n in
our sim plified exercise. But the b a sic i m p li c a t i o n is hard to d isp u te :
W ith a rising average, the c h a n g e s are p o s i t i v e rather than n e g a t iv e .
C o n s id e r the poverty rate for p e o p le in th e N L S Y as of 1989, for e x
am ple. It stoo d at 11.0 p e rc e n t.171T h e s a m e sam ple, depleted of a b o v e -
97 IQ p eo p le until the m ean was 9 7 , h a s a p overty rate of 12.2 p e rc e n t.
T h e sam e sam p le, depleted o f b e l o w - 103 I Q p eo p le until the m ean w as
103, has a p overty rate o f 8.3 p e r c e n t. T h i s represents a swing of a l m o s t
four p e rc e n ta g e p o in ts m ore th an a th i r d of the actual 1989 p o v e r t y
problem as represented by the full N L S Y sa m p le . Supp o se we c a s t th is
d iscussio n in term s o f the sw ing. T h e fig u re below c o n ta in s the i n d i
cators th at sh ow the biggest swing.
A sw ing from a n average IQ of 9 7 to 1 03 in the N L S Y red uces th e
p rop ortion o f p eo p le w'ho nev er g e t a h i g h sc h o o l ed ucatio n by 4 3 p e r
cent, o f p ersons below the p overty lin e b y 36 percent, of c h ild r e n l i v
ing in foster c are or with n o n p a r e n ta l r e l a t i v e s by 38 p e r c e n t, of w o m e n
ever on welfare by 31 percent. T h e list g o e s o n , and shows s u b s ta n tia l
red u ctio n s for oth e r indicators d isc u sse d in Part II that we h av e n o r i n
c luded in the figure.
T h e n a t io n is at a fork in the ro a d . It will be m o v in g s o m e w h e r e
within this ran g e o f p ossibilities in th e d e c a d e s to com e. It is easy to un-
T h e sw in g in so c ia l p ro b lem s th at c an re su lt
fro m sm a ll s h ifts in th e m ean IQ of a p o p u la tio n
C hange w hen the N L S Y sam p le is

altered s o that the m ean IQ is...
103 97
| P e rm an en t h ig h sc h o o l dro p o u ts
M e n prevented from w o rk in g by h e a lth p r o b le m s
C h ild r e n not liv in g w ith e ith e r parent
M a le s ever in te rv ie w e d in j a il
HHB Persons b e lo w the po v e rty lin e
C h ild r e n in poverty fo r the first 1 years o f life
W o m e n ever o n w elfare
m W o m e n w h o be ca m e c h ro n ic w e lfa re re cipien ts
___
C h ild r e n bo rn out o f w e d lo c k , o f all liv e births
-.Wr -20% -]()% 0'/f + 10V, +20'/;
derstand rhe h istorica l a n d social reasons why no b o d y w ants ro talk

about the d e m o g r a p h y of in telligence. O ur purpose has been to point
out that the stak e s are large an d that c o n tin u in g to pretend that th e re s
no th in g w orth th in k in g a b o u t is as reckless as it is foolish. In Part IV,
we offer so m e p o lic ies to p o in t the country toward a brighter d e m o
graphic future.
Chapter 16
Social Behavior and the

Prevalence of Low Cognitive
Ability
In this, chapter, the question is not whether low cognitive ability causes social
problems but the prevalence of low cognitive ability among people who have
those problems. It is an important distinction. C lausal relationships are com.'
plex and hard to establish definitely. T h e m easu re of prevalence is m are
straightforward. For most of the worst social problems o f our time, the p e o
ple who have the problem are heavily con cen trated in the lower portion of the
cognitive ability distribution. A ny practical solution must therefore be c a p a
ble of succeeding with such people.
his c h a p te r brings together (he s o c i a l b e h a v io rs we covered in P a rt
T II from a new v a n tag e point. T h e e a r l i e r chapters showed th at low

c o g n itiv e ability raises rhe risk of l i v i n g in c o n d itio n s or b eh a v in g in
ways that society h o p es to c h an g e. N o w t h e question concerns p r e v a
lence: T o w h at e x te n t does low c o g n i t i v e a b ility describe the peop le th u s
afflicted? T h e d istin c tio n is m ore f a m il ia r in the m edical c o n te x t. H i g h
c h olesterol m ay be a risk factor for h e a r t d ise a se , but m o st p eop le w ith
heart d isease m ay or may not h a v e h i g h c h o le ste ro l. If m ost p eop le w h o
h av e h eart a t t a c k s d o no t h av e h i g h c h o l e s t e r o l , then lowering the c h o
lesterol o f th o se with high levels w ill n o t d o m uch to reduce th e f r e
q uency o f h e a rt attac k s in the p o p u l a t i o n at large. Sim ilarly, to t h e
e x te n t that low c o g n itiv e ability is p r e v a l e n t am o n g p eo p le w h o h a v e
the problem s we h o p e to solve, p o lic ie s t h a t are effective for p eop le w ith
low scores sh o u ld be sought.
T h e entire N L S Y sam ple, in c l u d in g t h e A sia n - A m e r ic a n s, A m e r i -
c a n In d ia n s, a n d oth e r ethnic groups that h av e hitherto been ex clu d ed ,

a re used here. T h e proportions presented in this c h ap te r are rep resen
t a t iv e ot A m e r i c a s n ation al p o p u la tio n for an age c oh ort that was 26
to 33 as o f 1 99 0.
POVERTY
In 1 9 8 9 , th e o ffic ial n atio n al statistics revealed that 11.1 p erc en t o f per

s o n s ages 25 to 34 years old were poor in that year, virtually identical
w ith the 10.9 p erc en t below the poverty line in the N L S Y sa m p le ages
25 to 33. S o w h ile the N L S Y c a n n o t give us a precise figure for overall
n a t io n a l poverty, there is n o reason to think thar the results from it are
m isle a d in g for you n g adults. T h is is in preface to the sobering figure thar
follows.
F o rty -e ig h t p e rc e n t o f th e p o o r in 1 9 8 9 cam e
fro m th e b o tto m 2 0 p e rc en t in in tellig en ce
P erso n s in poverty Cumulative

(bars) (line)
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th l()th
IQ Decile
T h i s g ra p h uses c o n v e n tio n s that we follow thro ugho ut the chapter:

T h e h e a d l in e g iv e s the p ercen tage of the p op u latio n in q u estio n (in this
in s ta n c e , th e p o o r) in rhe b o tto m 20 percen t o f IQ , and the scale is the
s a m e for e a c h grap h . T h e bars show the p ercentage o f the p oor p o p u la
ti o n w h o c o m e from each decile, m arked by the scale o n the left. If c o g
n i t iv e ability were irrelevant to poverty, the bars would be o f equal
Social Behavior and the Prevaleme oj Low Cognitive Ability 371
h eight, eac h at just 10 p ercent. A d d i n g u p th e p e r c e n ta g e s in e a c h b a r

from left to right gives the c u m u la tiv e p e r c e n t a g e , sh o w n by the b l a c k
line and the righ t-h an d scale. For e x a m p l e , th e first two d ec iles a d d u p
to 4 8 percen t; therefore rhe black line c r o s s e s th e 4 8 p e rc e n t m a r k a t
the second bar. T h e c u m u lative s c a l e is a w ay of sh ow in g w h a t p r o p o r
tion o f poor p e o p le fall below any g iv e n d e c il e . F or e x a m p le , in t h e c a s e
o f poverty, a lm o st 80 p ercent o f p o o r p e o p l e a r e in or b elow the fo u rt h
decile. If c o g n itiv e ability were irrelev an t, t h e lin e would be a s t r a i g h t
d iag o n al from lower left to the u p p e r right.
In term s o f IQ points, the c o g n i tiv e a b ility d e c il e s in the figure a b o v e ,
as in all the o th e rs in the chapter, c o r r e s p o n d to the scores in th e ta b le
below. T h e b o tto m two deciles cut o f f IQ 8 7 a n d below and the t o p t w o
IQ E q uivalen ts for th e D e c ile s
D e c ile Range M e d ia n
1st U n d e r 81 74
2d 81-87 84
3d 87-92 90
4th 92-96 94
5th 96-100 98
6th 100-104 102
7th 104-108 106
8th 1 0 8 -1 1 3 110
9th 113-119 116
10th A b o v e 119 126
deciles cut off IQ 11 3 an d ab ove. It m ay a l s o be useful to recall th a t m o s t

college g rad u ate s and alm ost e v e ry o n e w i t h a p rofessio n a l d egree fall in
the n in th an d te n th deciles.
T h e figure tells us forcefully that p o v e r t y is c o n c e n t r a t e d a m o n g t h o s e
with low c o g n itiv e ability. T h e m e a n I Q o f p e o p le below the p o v e r t y
line was 88. A third o f them c a m e from t h e very b o tto m d e c ile ; th e y
had IQ s under 81. Eighty-tw o p e r c e n t h a d he lo w -a v erag e IQs.
H IG H S C H O O L D R O P O U T S
It will c o m e as no surprise to find t h a t m o s t h i g h sc h o o l d r o p o u t s h a v e

low in telligence. T h e figure b elow sh o w s t h e results tor p e rso n s w h o
T w o -th ird s o f high sc h o o l d ro p o u ts cam e

fro m th e b o tto m 2 0 p e rc e n t in in tellig e n c e
Permanent high school dropouts Cumulative

(b ars) (line)
(O' r IS I _ ___ 100'/,
1st 2nd .Vd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
IQ Decile
dropped out of sc h o o l and did nor subsequently ob tain a G E D . O v erall,

94 percen t of those who p erm anently dropped out of school were below
average in IQ . A s we noted in C h a p t e r 6, this disp rop ortion is not ma-
terially a ffe c te d by analyses lim ited to persons who took the in telligen ce
test before th e y drop p ed out, so it c an n o t be exp lained by the effects of
a lack o f s c h o o l i n g o n their IQs.
T h o s e w h o drop out of sch ool and larer return to get their G E D are
m arkedly b elo w the m ean of those who finish high school in the n o r
mal way, but they are no t as severely skewed toward the bo ttom end of
the d istrib u tio n . Twenty-five percent are in the bo tto m two IQ deciles,
and 6 9 p e r c e n t are in the b o tto m half o f the distribution.
M EN A N D W O R K
The E m p lo y ed
Year'W und em ploym ent has only a minor association with cognitii'e ability.
T h e figure below , based on m en who worked fifty-two w eeks in 1989,
Social Behavior and the Prevalence of Low Cognitive Ability 373
m akes this p o i n t plainly. We italicize it b e c a u s e , alth ou g h it is c o n s i s

tent with the analysis presented for w h ite s in C h a p t e r 7, we w a n t to
em phasize that rhe sam e result applies a c r o s s e t h n i c groups.
S e v e n te e n p e rc e n t o f th e m en w h o w o r k e d y e a r ro u n d in 1 9 8 9
w ere in th e bo tto m 2 0 p e r c e n t o f in te llig e n c e
Men who worked 52 weeks in 1989 Cumulative

(bars) (line)
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7 th 8th 9th l()th

IQ Decile
By an d large, m e n w h o were em p lo y ed t h r o u g h o u t 1982 were s p r e a d

across the full ran g e of IQs, with only a m i n o r e l e v a t i o n for those in t h e
top four deciles. T h e m ean IQ o f year-rou n d w orkers was 102. T h o s e
with low IQ h a v e a statistically tou g h er ti m e in m an y ways, b u t th ey
c on trib u te very nearly their full sh are to the p o p u la tio n of m e n e m
ployed year roun d, an im p orta n t fact to r e m e m b e r as a c o u n te r w e ig h t
to m ost of the o th e r findings in this c h ap ter.
N on w ork ers
T h e p roto typ ical m em b er o f the u n d erc la ss in th e public im a g in a tio n is

a young m ale h a n g in g ou t on the streets, n e v e r w ork ing. T h is a m o u n t e d
to very few m en . O n ly 2.2 percent of N L S Y m e n n o t in school a n d n o t
p re v e n te d from working because o f h e a l t h p ro b le m s failed to w ork at
least a week in 1989. Bu t a m o n g th ese 2 .2 p e rc e n t, low c o g n itiv e a b i l
ity p re d o m in a t e d . T h e figure below, limited to civilian m e n ou t o fs c h o o l

and n o t physically p revented from working, c om bin es those w ho said
they were u n e m p lo y e d and those who said they had d rop p ed ou t o f the
labor force; th e ir c o m m o n d e n o m in a to r is that they reported zero weeks
o f w ork ing for 1989. T h e m e an IQ o f m en who did not work at all was
84- Fifty p e r c e n t were in the b o tto m decile. Eighty-four percent were
below av e rag e .
S ix t y - fo u r p e rc e n t o f ab le-b o d ied m en w h o d id n ot w o rk in 1 9 8 9
w e re in th e b o tto m 2 0 p e rc e n t o f in tellig en c e
A b le-b o d ied men who did not work C um ulative
1 0 0 *
80 %
6 0%
40%
20%
0%
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
IQ D ecile
U nem p loy m en t
N o w we tu rn to the m e n n o t represented in either o f the two figures

above: m e n w h o w orked at least som e time during 1989 but were o u t o f
work for m o re t h a n four weeks. T h e r e was som ew hat m ore u n e m p lo y
m en t a m o n g th e lower deciles o f IQ, as the figure below shows, but, as
the a lm o st s tra ig h t d iag o n al line shows, the relationship was n o t strong.
Social Behavior and the Prevalence of Low Cognitive Ability 375
T w e n ty -n in e p e rc e n t o f a b le - b o d ie d m e n w h o w e re te m p o ra rily o u t
o f w o rk in 1 9 8 9 w ere in th e b o tto m 2 0 p e rc e n t o f in te llig e n c e
Men out o f work 4 wks. or m o re Cumulative

(bars) (line)
IQ D e c i l e
For th ese m en, the m ean IQ w a s 9 7 , th r e e p o in ts he low average. It we

were ro add a n o t h e r graph, for m e n w h o w e r e our o f work for six m o n t h s
but not the full year, it would sh o w a s t r o n g e r relationship, about haltw ay
betw een the g r a p h just a b o v e a n d t h e e a r lie r g rap h tor m en who were
out o f rhe labor force all year. T h e g e n e r a l principle is that the lo n g e r
the p eriod o f u n e m p lo y m e n t, t h e m o r e p r e v a le n t is low IQ. S h o r t- te r m
u n e m p lo y m e n t is no t c o n sp ic u o u sly c h a r a c t e r i z e d by low IQ; lo n g-term
u n e m p lo y m e n t is.
M EN A N D C R IM E
T h e n e x t figure c o n ta in s the b r e a k d o w n o f th e IQ s of m en in the N L S Y

w h o were interview ed in a c o r r e c t i o n a l facility, sh ow in g that they h a d
c o m m itte d at least on e offen se se r io u s e n o u g h to get them locked up.
T h e m e a n IQ of m e n who w ere e v e r in te r v ie w e d in a c o rre c tio n al f a
cility was 84- Forty-five p e r c e n t were c o n c e n t r a t e d in the bottom d e c il e
o f c o g n itiv e ability. N i n e ty - th r e e p e r c e n t o f the m e n were so m e w h e re
in the b o tto m h a l f ot the c o g n i t iv e a b ility d istrib u tio n . T h is high p r e v a
lence of low I Q a m o n g o ffen d ers is c o n s i s t e n t with other e stim a te s in
the literature, as sum marized in C h a p t e r 11.
S ix ty - tw o p ercen t o f m en ev er in terv iew ed in ja il o r

p r is o n c a m e from th e b o tto m 2 0 p e rc e n t o f in te llig e n c e
M en ever interviewed in jail Cumulative

(b ars) (line)
IQ D ec ile
W OM EN A N D W ELFARE
We start w ith w o m e n who h av e ever received welfare. T h e d ata are

shown in th e figure below. O verall, the m ean IQ of w om en w ho ever
received w elfare was 89. A b o u t 85 p ercent o f th em were below average
in IQ, a n d few er th an 4 percent had IQs in rhe top two deciles.
For c h r o n i c welfare recipients, defined as w om en w ho had received
welfare for a t least five years by 1990, the cognitive d istribution was
even low er.111 A s rhe figure s h o w s , 57 percent of c h ron ic welfare m o t h
ers were in th e b o tto m two deciles of IQ, 88 percent were in the b o t
tom h a l f of the distribu tion, and their m ean IQ was 86. ju st as low IQ
was in creasin gly p revalen t as the level ot m ale un em p loy m en t in creased,
so also is low IQ m ore p revalen t am o n g m oth ers as their d e p e n d e n c y
on welfare rises.
Social Behavior and the Prevalence uj Low Cognitive Ability 377
F o r ty -fiv e p e rc e n t o f w o m e n w h o e v e r re c e iv e d w e lfare
a r e in th e b o tto m 2 0 p e r c e n t o f in te llig e n c e
W om en ever on welfare Cumulative

(bars) (line)
3 0% - 100%
20 % -
10% -
20%
0% -I
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th Kth 9th 10th
IQ D e c ile
F ifty -se v e n p erc en t o f c h r o n ic w e lfa r e re c ip ie n ts

a r e in th e b o tto m 2 0 p e r c e n t o f in te llig e n c e
W om en on welfare lor liv e or m o r e y ears Cumulative
IQ D e c il e
O U T C O M E S FO R C H ILD R EN
In this sec tio n , we describe the p revalence of low IQ a m o n g the m o t h

ers of c h ild ren with various problem s. T h a t is, we are p resen tin g an a n
sw er to the q u estio n , If I am trying to deal with a c ertain p roblem
regard in g th e child ren o f young adults, what can I assum e ab o u t the in
telligen c e o f their m others?
W e begin w ith the overriding fact that, as of 1990, the N L S Y m o t h
ers as a group were markedly below average in IQ. T h e ir m e a n IQ was
9 5 .7 . Fourteen percent of N L S Y children were horn to m o th ers in the
b o t t o m d ecile o f IQ; 27 percent to m others in the b o tto m two deciles; 62
p e r c e n t to m o th ers in the bo tto m h a lf o f the distribution. T h u s , for e x
am p le , a p ro b le m involving N L S Y children will ordinarily .show that 62
p erc en t of th e children hav e m others with below-average IQ. A s will be
clear, the ob served proportions o f low -lQ m others are often considerably
e lev ated a b o v e that e x p ec tatio n .12' But these ben ch m ark figures m ust be
k e p t in m ind when interpreting all the analyses in volving children.
Illegitimacy
W e start w ith the children who are born to unmarried w o m en (se e the
figure below ). T h e m ean IQ of m others of children b o m out o f w ed lo ck
F ifty -tw o p ercen t o f illegitim ate c h ild re n w ere b o rn

to m o th e rs in th e b o tto m 2 0 p erc en t o f in te llig e n c e
C h il d r e n b o m out o f w e d lo c k Cum ulative

(b a r s ) (line)
30% - I00%
80%
20 % -
60%
40%
20%
0% ,0%
IQ D e c ile
Social Behavior and the Prevalence o f Low Cognitive Ability 379
was 8 7 .131 O f all illegitim ate c h ild r e n in t h e N L S Y sam p le, a lm o st o n e

out o f three was b o m to a m o th e r in th e b o t t o m 10 percen t o f t h e in-
telligence distribution, with an I Q u n d e r 8 1 , an d 85 percen t were b o r n
to w o m en in the b o tto m h a lf o f t h e c o g n i t i v e ability distribution.
R estrictin g the analysis to th o se c h i l d r e n w h o are m ost at risk, th e s e
percentages, alread y extrem e, b e c o m e e v e n m o r e b u n c h e d at the lo w e r
en d o f th e d istribution. C o n s id e r c h i l d r e n w h o fit the archetyp e o f t h e
child at risk: b o m to a poor, single, t e e n a g e girl (w ith poverty m e a su r e d
in the year prior to g iv in g birth). A l m o s t t w o o u t o f three ( 6 4 p e r c e n t )
o f such c h ild re n were born to w o m e n in t h e b o t t o m 2 0 percent o f t h e
co g n itiv e ability distribution. N in e ty -fiv e p e r c e n t of th em were b o m to
w o m en in the b o tto m half.
O ther Form s o f Single Parenthood
T h e figure below shows the p r o p o r t i o n o f N L S Y c h ild re n bo rn to a m ar-

ried co u p le but living (in 1 990) w ith j u s t th eir m o th e rs b ecau se o f d i
vorce or sep aration . First, a c a u tio n : T h e p ro file we are ab out to p r e s e n t
Thirty-one percent of children living with divorced or separated mothers

had mothers with IQs in the bottom 2 0 percent of intelligence
Children o f divorced o r se p a ra te d p aren ts C um ulative

(bars) (line)
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7 th 8th 9th 10th

IQ Decile
m ay c h a n g e in the future because so m an y o f the e x p e c te d div orces

a m o n g the N L S Y sam ple h av e not yet occurred. For w om en w ho had
e v e r been m a rrie d in the 25 to 33 age range as o f 1990, we may, how-
ever, ask: A m o n g their children w ho were living in m other-only fa m i
lies as o f 1 9 9 0 , w hat is the distribution o f the m o th e rs in tellig en ce?
D iv o rc e d an d separated m others averaged an IQ o f 9 3 . ^ M o re than
halt o f all c h il d r e n living with their divorced or separated m o th e rs in
the N L S Y were born to w om en in the bottom 30 percent ot the IQ d is
tribu tio n. S e v e n ty - six percent were born to w om en in the b o tto m half
of th e d istribu tion . R e m e m b e r that there is no c o n fo u n d in g with ille
g itim ac y ; all child ren born out of wedlock are ex clu d ed trom this s a m
ple. T h e p re v a ilin g notion that sep aration and divorce are so en d em ic
th a t they affec t everyone m ore or less equally is wrong as regards c o g
n itiv e ability, at least in this age group.
P erhaps th e differences will even out to som e extent in rhe long run.
B rig h te r w o m e n get married and h a v e their children later. In the N L S Y
sa m p le , their marriages have had less time to break up than those tor
w o m e n lower in the distribution. O n ly time will tell w h eth er and how
m u c h the d istribution in the graph above will c h a n g e in the years to
c o m e . A r th is point, rhe skew is notable and clear.
P u lling to g e t h e r the d ata on illegitimacy and other form s of single
p a r e n th o o d , h e re are a few key points:
W ith in the bottom two deciles o f intelligence, illegitim acy is m ore

c o m m o n than divorce or sep aration as rhe source of single
p a r e n th o o d .
B e g i n n i n g with the third decile, divorce and sep aratio n b ec o m e
an e q u a l or p red om inan t source of single p aren th o od .
T h e b o t t o m half of the co gn itiv e ability d istribution a c c o u n ts for
82 p e rc e n t of all children in sin gle-parent ho m es ( c o m b in in g il
legitim ac y with d ivorce or sep aration ) as o f 1990.
L o w 'B irth 'W e ig h t Babies
A m o n g whites, the c h an c es o f h av in g a low-birth-weight baby were a s

s o c ia te d with IQ , not so c io e c o n o m ic background, w hen both variables
were tak en in to accou n t ( C h a p t e r 10). T h e p revalen c e of low-birth-
w e ig h t b a b ie s a m o n g w om en in the b o tto m h alf o f the d istribu tion per
sists w hen th e entire N L S Y sam p le is considered (th e figure below).
Social Behavior and the Prevalence of Low Cbgnitive Ability 381
Forty-five percent o f low -birth-w eight babies had

m others in the bottom 2 0 percen t o f intelligence
Low-birth-weight b a b ie s Cumulative
(bars) (line)
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7 th 8th 9th IOth

IQ D e c ile
M o th ers with low -birth-w eight b a b ie s a v e r a g e d a n IQ of 89. A l m o s t

three out of four (7 4 p e rc e n t) m o t h e r s w e r e in rhe bottom half ot the
IQ distribution.
Defrrived H om e Environm en ts
C h a p t e r 10 discussed rhe H O M E in v e n to r y , a m e a su re c om b in in g m a n y
in dicators of b o th e m o tio n al s u p p o r t (fo r e x a m p l e , disciplinary style)
and c o g n itiv e s tim u la tio n (for e x a m p l e , r e a d i n g to the child). H e re , we
e x a m in e c h ild re n w hose H O M E s c o r e s p u t t h e m in the hottom 10 p e r
cent of e n v ir o n m e n t s (using n a t i o n a l n o r m s fo r th e H O M E in v en to ry ).
T h e m e a n I Q o f m oth ers o f c h i l d r e n in t h e w orst h o m e e n v ir o n m e n t s
was 86. T h r e e out o f eight h a d IQ s b e l o w 8 1 ; 8 6 percent had IQs b elo w
100. T h e figure below c o m b in e s th e resu lts for c h ild r e n in all age g ro u p s.
T h e r e were s o m e age differen ces, h o w e v e r : G e n e r a lly , the c o n c e n t r a
tion o f the worst e n v ir o n m e n t s a m o n g m o t h e r s with low c o g n itiv e a b i l
ity got worse as the child ren g o t old er. For c h i l d r e n ages 3 to 5 w h o were
in the worst h o m e e n v ir o n m e n t s , 5 9 p e r c e n t h a d m others with I Q s in
the b o tto m tw o deciles. For c h i l d r e n 6 a n d old er, the figure was 6 5 p e r
cent.
Fifty-six percent of all children from bottom decile in home environ

m ent were born to mothers in the bottom 20 percent of intelligence
Children in the worst home environments Cumulative

(bars) (line)
IQ Decile
C h ild ren in Poverty
T h e p ro p o rtio n o f children living in poverty is on e of the most fre

q u e n tly c ited statistics in public policy d ebates an d on e of the m ost p o w
erful ap p eals to a c tio n . In consid ering w hat actions m ig h t be taken, and
w h a t will a n d w o n t work, keep the following figure in m ind. It shows
t h e d istrib u tio n o f m atern a l c ogn itiv e ability a m o n g ch ild ren w ho spent
th e ir first th re e years below the poverty line. M o th e rs whose child ren
liv e d in p overty th ro u gh o u t their first three years averaged an IQ o f 84.
Forty -on e p e r c e n t had m others in the very bo ttom d ecile in c o g n itiv e
ahility. In all, 9 3 p e rc e n t were born to w om en in the b o tto m h a lf o f the
I Q d istribu tion . O f all the social problem s ex am in ed in this chapter,
p o v e rty a m o n g c h ild ren is p reem inently a problem asso ciated with low
I Q in this case, low IQ a m o n g the mothers.
D ev elo p m en tal Problem s A m o n g C hildren
T h e p r e v a le n c e o f d e v e lo p m e n ta l p roblem s am o n g c h ild re n is skew ed

to w ard the low er h a l f o f the IQ distribution. R a th e r th a n p resent graphs
for e a c h of th e m , th e table below summarizes a c o n siste n t situatio n. S e e
Social Behavior and the Prevalence o f Low Cognitive Ability 383
Sixty-three percent of children w ho lived in poverty throughout the

first three years had m others in the b ottom 2 0 percent of intelligence
Children living in poverty f o r 1st 3 yrs. Cumulative

(bars) (line)
IQ D e c ile
P re v a le n c e o f L o w I Q A m o n g M o th e r s of
C h ild re n w ith D e v e lo p m e n t a l P ro b le m s
Percentage of
T h e s e C h il d r e n Mean IQ
C hildren in the with M o t h e r s in of
W orst D ecile on: B o ttom : Mothers
20% 50%
of IQ o f IQ
Friendliness index,
12-2 3 mos. 49 82 88
Difficulty index,
12-23 mos. 40 71 91
Motor and social d e v e lo p
ment index, birth-47 mos. 38 67 93
Behavioral problems index,
children ages 4-11 yrs. 42 78 90
384 The National ( -'ontcxt
C h a p t e r 10 for a d e s c r ip tio n of the indexes. Low I Q is p revalen t a m o n g

th e m o th e r s o f c h ild re n w ith e ach of these d e v e lo p m e n tal p roblem s, hut
n o n e sh ow s as stro n g a c o n c e n tr a tio n as the d evelop m en tal in d ic ator
w e c o n s i d e r the m o s t im p o rta n t for ev e n tu a l social a d ju stm e n t: the
c h i l d s o w n IQ . T h e figure below is lim ited to rhe co g n itiv e abil ity of
c h il d r e n ag e s 6 an d o ld er when they too k the test.
S e v e n ty - tw o p e r c e n t o f c h ild ren in th e b o tto m d ecile o f IQ h ad

m o th e r s in th e b o tto m 2 0 p e rc e n t of in te llig e n ce
Children in the bottom decile o f IQ Cumulative

(bars) (line)
IQ Decile
T h e m e a n I Q ot m o th e r s of child ren w ho scored in the bot tom decile

of a c h i l d h o o d in te llig e n c e test was 8 1 . hl O verall, 94 p erc en t of these
c h i l d r e n h ad m o th e r s with IQs u nder 100. T h e extrem e c o n c e n tr a tio n
o f low I Q a m o n g th e c h ild r e n o f low -IQ m others is no surprise. T h a r it
is p r e d ic t a b l e d o e s n o t m a k e the future any brighter for these children.
Social Behavior and the Prevalence o] Low C o s t i v e Ability .385
C O N C L U D IN G R E M A R K S
Let us c o n c lu d e o n a brighter n ote, after so u n re le n tin g a tally o f prob-

lems. You will recall from C h a p t e r 12 that we d e v e lo p e d a M id d le C l a s s
Values Index. T o qualify for a score of yes, a n N L S Y p erson had to he
married to his or her first spouse, in the labor force ( if a m a n ), bearing
c h ild re n within w ed lo c k (if a w o m an ), an d n e v e r h av e b een interviewed
in jail. H ow did the N L S Y sam p le break d o w n by IQ ? T h e results are
set out in the figure.
T en p e rc e n t o f p eo p le sc o rin g y e s on th e M id d le C la s s V a lu e s
In d e x w e re in th e b o tto m 2 0 p e rc e n t o f in te llig e n c e
People scorin g y e s on the M C V Index C u m u lative

(bars) (line)
IQ D ecile
T h e m ean IQ of th ose who scored yes was 104- T h o s e in the hot-

tom two d eciles c o n tr ib u te d only ab ou t 10 p erc en t, half of their p r o
p ortion al share. T h o s e in the b o tto m half of the c o g n i t iv e d istribution
con tribu ted 37 perc en t. A s in the case o f year-round e m p lo y m e n t, the
skew tow ard th ose in the upper half of the c o g n itiv e ab ility d istribution
is not extrem e. T h i s rem ind s us again m ore gen erally th at m ost people
in the lower half o f the co g n itiv e d istribu tion are e m p lo y e d , our ot
poverty, no t on welfare, married when they h a v e th eir b a b ies, p ro v id
ing a nurturing e n v ir o n m e n t for their c hild ren, a n d o b e y in g the law.
W e m u st a d d a n o th e r reminder, however. T h e r e is a n atu ral ten d en c y

to review th e se figures and con c lu d e that we are really lo o k in g at the
c o n s e q u e n c e s o f social an d ec o n o m ic disadvantage, not intelligence.
B u t in Part II, we showed that for virtually all o f the in dicators reviewed
in this c h a p te r, c o n tr o llin g for so c io e c o n o m ic status d oes n o t get rid of
the in d e p e n d e n t im p ac t o f IQ. O n the contrary, co n tro llin g for IQ o f
te n g ets rid o f the in d e p e n d e n t im pact o f so c io e c o n o m ic status. W e h av e
n o t tried to p re se n t the replications o f those analyses for all eth n ic
group s c o m b in e d , b u t they tell the sam e story.
T h e l e sso n o f this chapter is that large proportions of rhe p eo p le w ho
e x h ib it th e b e h a v io rs and problem s that d o m in a te the n a t i o n s social
policy a g e n d a h a v e limited c ogn itiv e ability. O fte n they are n ea r the d e
fin itio n for m e n t a l retardation (though the N L S Y sam ple screen ed out
p e o p le w h o fit the clinical definition o f retarded). W h e n the n a tio n
seeks t o low er u n em p lo y m en t or lower the crim e rate or in duce welfare
m o th e rs to g e t jo b s, the solutions must he judged by their effectiveness
with th e p e o p le m o st likely to exhib it the problem: rhe least intelligent
p eo p le. A n d w ith that, we reach the practical q u estio n s o f policy that
will o c c u p y us for the rest o f the hook.
PART IV
Living Together
O u r analysis p ro v id es few clear and d ec isiv e s o lu tio n s to th e m ajor d o

m estic issues o f rhe day. Rut, at the sam e tim e , th ere is n o m ajo r d o
mestic issue for w h ich the news we bring is irrelev an t.
D o we w ant to persu ade p oor single te e n a g e rs n o t to h a v e babies? T h e
know led ge that 95 percen t o f p o o r teenage w o m e n who h a v e babies are
also below av e rag e in in telligence should p r o m p t s k e p tic ism about
strategies that rely o n abstract a n d far-sighted c a l c u l a t io n s o f self-inter
est. D o we fav or jo b training program s for c h r o n i c a l ly u n e m p lo y e d m en?
A n y program is g o in g to fail unless it is d e sig n e d for a target p o p u la tio n
h a lf o f w hich h a s IQ s below 80. D o we wish to red u c e i n c o m e inequal
ity? If so, we need to und erstan d how the m a rk e t for c o g n i t iv e ability
drives the process. D o we aspire to a world c la s s e d u c a t io n a l system
for A m e r ic a ? Before d ec id in g w h at is w rong w ith the cu rren t system , we
had better th in k h ard ab out how' c o g n itiv e ab ility a n d e d u c a tio n are
linked. Part IV tries to lay out so m e o f th ese c o n n e c t i o n s .
C h a p t e r 17 sum m arizes w hat we know a b o u t d ire c t efforts to increase
co g n itiv e ability by altering th e social a n d p hy sic al e n v ir o n m e n t in
w hich p eo p le d e v e l o p an d live. S u c h efforts m ay su c c e e d even tually, hut
so far the record is spotty.
C h a p t e r 18 review s the A m e r ic a n e d u c a tio n a l e x p e r ie n c e o f rhe past
few decad es. It h as b e e n more successful w ith th e a v e r a g e a n d below-
average stu d en t th a n m any p eop le think, we c o n c l u d e , hut has n e
glected rhe gifted m inority w h o will greatly affect how well A m e r ic a
does in th e twenty-first century.
In C h a p t e r s 19 an d 20, the focus shifts to affirm a tiv e a c t i o n policies
in e d u c a tio n a n d in the workplace. O u r so c ie ty h a s d e d i c a t e d itself to
c o p in g with a p articu lar sort o f inequality, trying to eq u alize o u tc o m e s
for various groups. T h e country has retreated from o ld e r p rin c ip les o f
individual eq uality before the law a n d has a d o p t e d p o lic ie s thar treat
p eo p le as m e m b e rs o f groups. O u r c o n tr ib u tio n (w e h o p e ) is to calibrate
388 Living Together
rhe p o lic y c h o i c e s a sso c ia te d with affirmative action, to m ake c o sts and

b e n e f its c le a re r th a n th ey usually are.
T h e final tw o c h a p te rs look to the future. In C h a p t e r 21, we soun d a
t o c sin . P re d ic tio n s are always chancy, and ours are especially glum , hut
we th in k t h a t c o g n itiv e stratification may he taking the country dow n
d a n g e r o u s p a th s. C h a p t e r 22 follows up with our c o n c e p tio n of a liberal
a n d ju st society, in light o f rhe story that the rest o f the book has told.
T h e result is a p erso n a l state m e n t of how we believe A m e r i c a c a n face
u p to in e q u a lity in the 21st century and rem ain uniquely A m e ric a .
Chapter 17
Raising Cognitive Ability
Raising intelligence significantly, consistently, and. affordably would circum-

vent many of the probleyns that we have described. Furtherm ore, the needed
environmental improvements better nutrition, stim ulating environments for
preschool children, good schools thereafter seem obvious. But raising intel
ligence is not easy.
Nutrition may offer one of the more prom ising approaches. Height and
weight have increased markedly with better nutrition. T he rising IQ s in m any
countries suggest that better nutrition may be increasing intelligence too. C o n
trolled studies have m ade some progress in uncovering a link between improved
nutrition and elevated cognitive ability as well, but it remains unproved and
not well understood.
Form al schooling offers little hope of narrow ing cognitive inequality on a
large scale in developed countries, because so m uch of its potential contribu
tion has already been realized with the advent of universal twelve-year sy s
tems. Special Inogram s to improve intelligence within the school have had
minor and probably temporary effects on intelligence. There is more to be
gained from educational research to find new methods of instruction than from
more interventions o f the type already tried.
Preschool has borne m any o f the recent hopes for improving intelligence.
However, H ead Start, the largest program , does not improve cognitive f u n c
tioning. M ore intensive, hence more costly, jneschonl program s may raise in
telligence, but both the size and the reality of the im provem ents are in d isp u te.
The one intervention that works consistently is adoption at birth from a bad
fam ily environment to a good one. The average gains in childhood IQ a sso c i
ated with adoption are in the region o f six points not spectacular but not n eg
ligible either.
Taken together, the story of attempts to raise intelligence is one of high
hopes, flam boyant claim s, and disappointing results. F or the foreseeable f u
ture, the problems o f b w cognitive ability are n ot going to be solved by o u t
side interventions to make children smarter.
390 Living Together
a n p e o p le b e c o m e s m a r t e r if they are given the right kind o f help?
C If raisin g in te llig e n c e is possible, then the m aterial in Parts II an d

III c o n s t i t u t e s a c la rio n c a ll for program s to d o so. S o c ia l p ro b lem s are
h ig h ly c o n c e n t r a t e d a m o n g p e o p le at the bo tto m o f the c o g n itiv e d is
trib u tio n ; th o se p ro b le m s b e c o m e m uch less prevalent as IQ in creases
e v e n m o d e stly ; an d th e h isto ry o f increases in IQ suggests that they o c
c u r m o st readily at th e b o t t o m o f the distribution. W h y not m o u n t a
m a jo r n a t io n a l effort to p ro d u c e such increases? It does no t a p p ear o n
its fac e to b e a n im p o ssib le task. E v e n the highest estim ates o f heri-
tab ility l e a v e 2 0 to 30 p e r c e n t o f co gn itiv e ability to be sh ap ed by the
e n v ir o n m e n t . S o m e re se a r c h e rs c o n tin u e to argue that the right p ro
p o r t i o n is 5 0 to 6 0 p e rc e n t. In either case, elim in a tin g the d is a d v a n
tag e s th at afflict p e o p le in p o o r surroundings should increase their
c o g n i tiv e f u n c t i o n i n g .1'1
U p o n first c o n s id e r a tio n , th e ways to elim inate those d isa d v a n ta g e s
se e m o b v io u s. M a n y c h ild re n o f low-incom e parents grow up in terrible
h o m e e n v ir o n m e n t s, w ith little stim u lation or nurturing. Surely, it
w ou ld se e m , in te llig e n c e w o u ld rise if these children were p la ced in day
care e n v ir o n m e n t s w here p ro fe ssio n a ls provided that stim u latio n an d
n urturing. S c h o o l s in p o o r n eig h b o rh o o d s arc often n in d ow n an d
c h a o t ic . Is n t it c le a r t h a t in creasin g the in vestm en t in sc h o o ls would
p ay o ff in h ig h e r scores?
L im itle s s p o ssib ilities for im p ro v in g intelligence e n v iro n m e n ta lly
w a it to be u n c o v e r e d by sc ie n c e : im proved ed ucatio n al m eth od s, diets,
tr e a t m e n t s fo r d isea se, p r e n a ta l care, e d u c atio n al m edia, and e v e n m e d
ic in e s to m a k e o n e sm arter. In principle, intelligence c a n be raised e n
v i r o n m e n t a ll y to u n k n o w n limits.
Yet th e m o r e o n e k n o w s a b o u t the evidence, the harder it is to be
o p t i m i s t ic a b o u t p ro sp e c ts in the n ea r future for raising the scores o f
th e p e o p le w h o are m o st d is a d v a n ta g e d by their low scores. For o n e
th in g , it is h ard to find n e w ways to use existing resources that are not
a lre a d y b e i n g d o n e . T h e n u rtu rin g o f the young in cluding the c o g
n itiv e n u rtu rin g is o n e o f the central purposes o f h u m a n society.
T h a t , after all, is w h a t fa m ilie s m ain ly do. Very high p rop ortion s o f
c h il d r e n a lread y g e t p r e n a ta l care, nutrition, hom e e n v iro n m e n ts, and
c la s s r o o m e n v ir o n m e n t s t h a t are goo d enough to leave little ro o m for
m e a s u r a b le im p r o v e m e n t. T h e grim stories ab out c h ild h o o d d e p r iv a
t i o n in v o l v e a sm all p r o p o r t i o n o f children. A n d when it c o m e s to
h e l p i n g t h a t sm a ll p r o p o r t i o n o f children, the results seld o m ap p ro a c h
Raising Cognitive Ability 391
e x p ec tatio n s. W e may be deeply and properly dissatisfied w ith th e n u r

turing o f A m e r i c a n intelligence, but fin d in g solu tions th at are a ffo rd '
able, politically tolerable, and n o t already b e in g tried is a n o t h e r m a tte r
altogether.
In this ch ap ter, we m o v e th ro u g h a suc c essio n of topics. First we con -
sider the effects o f nutrition. We th en discuss a se q u e n c e o f su c c e ssiv e ly
m ore targeted, in tense social in te rv e n tio n s: ed u c atio n in gen eral,
p reschool in te rv e n tio n s, in te n siv e support for ch ild ren at risk for r e ta r'
d ation , a n d the m o st extrem e form of so cial in terven tion , a d o p t i o n at
birth. W e clo se with our th o u g h ts o n w h at so c iety s e x p e rie n c e s w ith
th ese in te rv e n tio n s should m e a n for policy in the future.
N U T R IT IO N
M o st of us h a v e b e e n urged by a p a re n t or g ran d p are n t to eat rhe b rain

fo o d , w hich se e m e d invariably t o be the m o st u n p alata b le th i n g o n the
table. T h is idea o f a c o n n e c tio n betw een d iet and in te llig e n c e h a s an
a n c ie n t history goin g back to m ens san a in corpora san o -1' 1 In the tw en-
tieth century, th e plausibility o f a c o n n e c t i o n has been rein forced by the
fact that p e o p le in affluent c o u n tries are larger th a n their an c e sto rs
were, presum ably in part bec au se they are e a tin g better. IQ sc ores, too,
h av e been rising during a p p ro x im a te ly the sam e p erio d the F ly n n
effect described in C h a p t e r 13. T h e s e c o in c id e n t c h a n g e s d o no t p ro v e
that better e a tin g m ak es for sm arte r p eo p le, but c o u n t as c ir c u m s ta n ti a l
evidence.
For a while, how ever, scien tific research seem ed to h a v e w e a k e n e d
the case for an y link between n u tritio n an d IQ. T h e m o st d a m a g in g
blow was a study o f ov er 1 0 0 ,0 0 0 D u tc h m e n w ho were born a ro u n d a
time of in ten se fam in e in several D u tc h c ities near the e n d o f W o r ld
W ar I I .1 N i n e t e e n years later, th e m en took in telligen ce tests as p a r t of
the q u a lific a tio n tor n a tio n a l m ilitary service, and it o c c u rred to s c h o l
ars to c o m p a re the o n e s w ho were bo rn in the d epth s ot the f a m in e to
those born ju st before and just after it. M a n y p regn an t w o m e n m is c a r
ried during the fam in e, but their su rviving son s scored n o low er in in
telligence th a n the m en b o m to m o th e rs w h o had little or n o e x p o su re
to fam in e. But as im p orta n t as th is study was, som e sc ie n tists were n o t
entirely c o n v in c e d by its n e g a t iv e findings. T h e D u tc h fa m in e w as rel
atively brief th ree m o n th s or s o a n d lim ited to th e pre- a n d p e r i n a
tal period o f th e m e n s lives. A n d while th e m o th ers w ere in d eed
392 Living Together
s t a r v in g for calories, th e ir deficiencies in vitam in s, m inerals, an d oth e r

d ie ta ry e le m e n t s were p e rh ap s too brief to take a toll.4
A n o t h e r -approach to the im p act o f nutrition o n c o g n itiv e ability is
to see w h e t h e r e n ric h e d diets c an raise scores. A b re a k th ro u g h study
d o n e in G r e a t B rita in in the late 1980s concluded that the answer was
y e s.s D a v i d B e n t o n a n d G w ily m R ob erts gav e a sam p le o f thirty W elsh
12- to 1 3 -year-old c h ild r e n v itam in and m ineral su p p lem en ts for eight
m o n t h s a n d c o m p a r e d th eir test scores with an equal n u m b er o f their
s c h o o l m a t e s g e ttin g n o n n u tritiv e placebos. T h e W elsh ch ild ren were
n o t k n o w n to be m a ln o u rish e d , but those getting the s u p p le m e n t gain ed
e ig h t p o i n t s m o re in th e ir n o nverbal intelligence test scores th a n those
g e t t i n g the p la c e b o , a large and statistically significant im p ro v e m en t.
V e rb a l scores sh o w e d n o differential im p ro v e m en t.|h|
A r e c e n t A m e r i c a n c on firm a tio n of the W elsh results gav e ov er 6 0 0
e i g h t h a n d te n th grad ers in several C a lifo rn ia schools daily pills for th ir
t e e n w e e k s.' T h e p ills c o n ta in e d either h a l f the re c o m m e n d e d daily a l
lo w a n c e s ( R D A ) o f a wide asso rtm en t o f vitam in s and m inerals,
p rec isely th e R D A , tw ice the R D A , or a p lacebo. T h e v ita m in and m i n
eral s u p p l e m e n t raised scores on m ost of the nonverbal subtests o f a s t a n
d a rd in t e ll i g e n c e te st.1''1T h e verbal in telligence test scores again failed
to register an y b en efit, b u t that is c on sisten t with the Flynn effect: T h e
risin g a v e r a g e in t e llig e n c e scores o f n ation s seem prim arily to be o n n o n
v e rb al tests.
T h e n e t a v e r a g e b e n e f it for pills p rovid in g on e R D A was ab out tour
p o i n t s in n o n v e r b a l in tellig en c e in the C a lifo rn ia study. But this a v e r
a g e g a i n c o m p r ise d m a n y youngsters who did no t benefit at all, m ix e d
w ith s o m e w h o se g a in s e x c e e d e d fifteen points. T h e child ren w ho did
n o t b e n e f it w ere p re su m a b ly already g etting the v ita m in s and m in erals
th e y n e e d e d for d e v e l o p in g their nonverbal scores in their regular diets.
B u r th is is ju st a h y p o th e sis at present. It rem ains to be sh o w n w hether
th e g a i n fro m v i t a m in s or m inerals can be associated with p reexistin g
f o o d d e fic ie n c ie s , let a l o n e w h ich particular dietary in gredients, in what
a m o u n t s , p ro d u c e th e g a i n s . 191 Youngsters getting ex ac tly the R D A had
th e largest g a i n in sc ores; those taking either m ore or less o f the s u p
p l e m e n t b e n e f ite d less, if at all.1101 T h is is not only puzzling but w orri
s o m e . C o u l d it m e a n t h a t e x c essiv e d osag es of vitam in s and /or m in erals
h a r m in te lle c tu a l fu n c tio n in g ? T h e r e is no ev id en c e th at it does, but at
th e least, it rein fo rc es th e prudence of d o in g m ore research before g o
in g o v e r b o a r d for v i t a m i n an d m ineral supplem ents.
R aisin g Cognitive Ability 393
O t h e r P h ysiological In flu e n c es on IQ . O r A r e T h e y ? T w o F u r t h e r
Exam ples
T he physiological environm ent seems to be associated w ith IQ in othe r

ways. For example, some studies (but not a ll) have found a small de clin e
in IQ ot each successive child born to a given w o m an , even after h o ld in g
overall fam ily size constant.11-11 Is this a m atter of th e social en v iro nm en t
w ith in the family, w hich changes as new c h ild r e n enter it, or the physio
logical en v iro nm en t in the uterus, w hich is b o th older on average an d has
a longer history o f childbirth w ith each successive pregnancy? The answer
is unclear, and both views have been advanced. But, whichever it is, this
would be a genuine environm ental effect on in tellig en ce, since the rolls of
the generic dice lor the successive offspring o f a given mother and father
are independent as far as anyone knows.
A n o th e r enviro nm ental and possihly physiolog ical influence on I Q is
suggested by data from twins. A m o n g id e n tica l twins, the one w ith the
higher IQ is likely to have been heavier at b ir t h .1' This is part ot a more-
general fin din g that higher weights at birth arc associated with higher IQ s
in childho od, but the identical twin data decisively prove that the corre
lation between birth weight and later in tellig en ce has an environm ental
elem ent, since identical twins are genetic c lo n e s.14 It is less certain th at
there are no social factors here: People may treat tw in babies differently it
one is plum per than rhe other. T raining m others in how to be more a tte n
tive to their low-birth-weight babies seems, in tact, to raise later IQ , at least
up to rhe age ot 7.1111
T h is c a u tio n is reinforced by the in c o n s i s t e n c y of rhe n u tritio n al e f

fect o n IQ. M a n y studies that seem to be w e ll- c o n d u c te d v a riatio n s of
the successful o n e s h a v e failed to d e m o n s t r a t e a n y effect on IQ at a l l . 11
T h e re aso n ab le m id dle ground at this p o i n t is to c o n c lu d e that p r o v i d
ing child ren w ith the re c o m m e n d e d d aily a l l o w a n c e of v ita m in s is a
g o o d idea tor m any reasons and m ight a l s o h a v e a helpful effect o n IQ.
R A I S I N G IQ T H R O U G H B E T T E R E D U C A T I O N
T h e alm ost reflexiv e reaction of m ost p e o p le w h e n they hear a b o u t the

b elow -averag e test scores a m o n g c h ild re n in th e b o tto m of the s o c i o e
c o n o m i c distrib u tio n is that ot course they h a v e low scores b e c au se they
h av e g o tte n p o o r ed u catio ns. Im pro ve t h e s c h o o l s , it is assu m ed , an d
the scores will rise.
394 Living Together
T h e r e are a nu m b er o f p ro b le m s w ith this assumption. O n e basic e r

ror is to assum e th a t new e d u c a t io n a l opportunities that successfully
raise the average will also re d u c e differences in cog n itiv e ability. C o n
sid er trying to raise the c o g n i t iv e level by p uttin g a public library in a
c o m m u n i ty that d o e s no t h a v e o n e . A d d i n g the library could increase
th e av erag e intellectual level, but it may also spread out the range o f
sc o res by ad d ing p o in ts to the IQ s of the library users, w ho are likely to
h a v e been at the u p p e r end of th e d istribu tion to begin with. T h e liter
atu re o n su ch a p titu d e - tre a tm e n t in te ra c tio n s is large and c o m p l e x . lh
For e x a m p le , p rovid ing c o m p u te r assistan c e to a group of elem entary
sc h o o l child ren learning a rith m e tic in creased the gap betw een good and
h ad s t u d e n t s ;1' a sim ilar effect was observed when com puters were used
to te a c h read in g ;1*' the e d u c a tio n a l telev isio n program, S e sa m e S tr e e t
increased rhe gap in a c a d e m ic p erform an ces between children from
h igh - and low-status h o m e s . w T h e s e results do no t m ean that such in
te rv e n tio n s are useless for the stu d e n ts at the bottom, but on e must be
careful to understan d w hat is an d is no t being improved: T h e perfor
m a n c e o f those at the b o tto m m ig h t improve, but they could end up
e v e n further behind their brig h ter c lassm ates.
A sec o n d broad difficulty w ith relying o n im provem ents in e d u c a
ti o n is that alth oug h they m a k e so m e difference in IQ, rhe size o f the
effect is small. T h is c o n c lu s io n is supported by evidence from both n a t
ural v a ria tio n in e d u c a tio n a n d p la n n e d e d u c atio n al experim ents.
L oo k in g at N a tu ra l V ariation
P a re n ts buying new houses o fte n p ic k the n eig h borh o od accord in g to

rhe rep u tation ot the local s c h o o ls. A fflu e n t parents may spend tens of
th o u sa n d s ot dollars to put th eir c h ild re n th ro u gh private schools. Tell
p a r e n ts that the qu ality of the s c h o o ls d o e s n t matter, and they will
unan im o u sly , and rightly, ig n ore you, for differences in schools do m a t
ter m m any im p ortan t ways. B u t in affecting IQ, they do n o t m atter
nearly as m uch as m o st p e o p le think.
T h i s co n c lu sio n was first a n d m o st fam ously reached by a study thar
w as e x p e c te d to d e m o n stra te ju st th e opposite. T h e study arose out o f a
m a n d a t e ot the C iv il R ig h ts A c t of 1964 to ex am in e how minority
g ro u p s are affected by e d u c a tio n a l inequalities. T h e result was a huge
n a t i o n a l survey, with a sa m p le t h a t even tu ally num bered 6 4 5 ,0 0 0 stu
d e n ts, led by the e m in e n t s o c io lo g is t Ja m e s S . C o le m a n . H is researchers
m e a su re d sc h o o l quality hy s u c h o b je c tiv e variab les as c red en tials o f the
teachers, ed u c atio n al expenditures per p u p il, and the age a n d q uality of

school facilities.
B e c a u se the sc h o o ls rhat m ost m inority child ren atten d e d were m ea-
surably subp ar in facilities an d staff, it w as assum ed that th e m in o rity
children fortu n ate en o u gh to attend bette r sch ools would a ls o s h o w i m
proved c o g n itiv e functioning. But the rep ort, issued in J u l y 1 9 6 6 , a n
n o u n ce d that it had failed to find any b en e fit to the c o g n itiv e a b ilitie s
o f ch ild ren in public primary or secon d ary schools that c o u ld b e c r e d
ited to better sc h o o l quality.1201 T h e usual w ays in which s c h o o ls tried t o
im prove their effectiveness were not likely to reduce the c o g n i t i v e d if
ferences a m o n g individual children or th o s e between e t h n i c groups.
T h e C o l e m a n rep orts gloom y c o n c lu sio n s were m o d erated in s u b se
q uent analyses that found som e evid ence fo r marginal benefits of s c h o o l
quality o n intellectual d e v elo p m en t.1211 C o l e m a n him self later c o n
cluded that p aroch ial schools generally d o a better job of d e v e l o p in g th e
c o g n itiv e ab ilities of their students than p u b lic schools, w h i c h p o in te d
to at least so m e factor in schooling that m ig h t be exp loited to im p ro v e
in telligen c e.2" Yet rhe basic conclusion o f the report has s t o o d t h e test
of tim e an d criticism : Variations in te a c h e r credentials, p er p u p il e x
penditures, an d the other ob jective facto rs in public sc h o o ls d o n o t a c
cou n t for m u c h of the variation in rhe c o g n itiv e abilities o f A m e r i c a n
sch ool c h ild re n .12 1
T h e several hundred thousand c h ild re n assessed in th e C o l e m a n
study h ad not b een subjects in e d u c a tio n a l experim ents. T h e y w ere ju st
stu d ents in several thousand local sch ools. T h e schools v a rie d in q u a l
ity, as they inevitably will.24 S o m e sc h ools, usually in p ro sp ero u s urb a n
or suburb an districts, got (and still get) m o r e money, more t e a c h e r s w ith
better qualification s, newer school bu ild in g s, and the like. Po orer or
rural districts usually m ade (and m ake) d o with less. T h e C o l e m a n r e
port, in oth e r words, is one o f a species o f e d u c a tio n a l research t h a t draw s
on n atural variation variation that is o c c u rrin g sp o n ta n e o u sly rath er
th an by design.
L o o k in g at the effects o f natural v a r ia t io n has a d v a n ta g e s as a r e
search strategy. O n e is that this kind of research does n o t req uire new
in v estm en ts o f time and m oney to in te rv e n e in schools. T h e i n t e r v e n
ing has already been d one at som eon e e l s e s expense. T h e d i s a d v a n t a g e
of su c h studies is that the variation is o fte n narrow an e x a m p l e o f th e
restriction o f ran ge problem that we d e sc rib e d in Part I. If a lm o s t all
classes h av e, say, betw een twenty-five a n d thirty-five c h ild re n in th e m ,
396 Living Together
t h e n l o o k i n g at natu ral va riatio n c a n n o t reveal what would h a p p e n in

c la s s e s w ith fiv e or ten children in them. T h e C o l e m a n report did not
p r o v e th a t e d u c a t io n a l retorm is always futile, but that, on rhe whole,
A m e r i c a h a d alread y a c h iev ed en o u gh o b jec tiv e eq u alizatio n in its
s c h o o l s by 1 9 6 4 so th at it was hard to p ic k up any effects of unequal
s c h o o l quality. T h e C o l e m a n report tells us that the c o g n itiv e ability
d iffe r e n c e s a m o n g individuals an d groups alike on a n atio n al scale c a n
n o t be re d u c e d m u c h by further attem pts to equalize the kinds of bricks-
a n d - m o r t a r facto rs a n d teacher credentials that school boards and
ta x p a y e r s m o s t often c o n c e rn them selves with.
A s i d e from the issue o f sch ool quality is the q uestio n ot w hether s i m
ply g o i n g to sc h o o l m akes any difference to o n e s in telligence. T h e a n
swer is self-ev id en tly yes. G o i n g to school an d learning how to read and
write, m a n i p u l a t e num bers, find our about o n e s culture and ab o u t the
d is c o v e r ie s ot sc ie n c e are goin g to raise scores on IQ tests c o m p a red to
n o t g o in g to sc h o o l. But alth ough ir is obvious th at sc h o o lin g itself fo s
ters in te llig e n c e , it is far less obvious how m uch of the in tellectu al v a r i
a t i o n a r o u n d us can be attributed to differences in the am o u n t of
s c h o o l i n g p e o p le get. If large num bers of people were g ettin g no s c h o o l
ing at all, th e re would be c og n itiv e d isa d v an tages on a grand scale that
c o u ld be b la m e d on a lack of form al education. Rut in m od ern c o u n
tries, n a t u r a l v a ria tio n does no t span so wide a range.
A n e x a m p l e o f a study that had enough natural variation in it to find
a n effect of s c h o o l i n g was dim e in S w e d e n a half-century a g o . 1 IQ tests
were g iv e n in 1 938 to a representative sam ple of several h u nd red 10-
year-old b o y s in p u b lic an d private schools in a S w e d ish city. T en years
later, the bo y s were tested again as part ot an induction e x a m in a tio n for
n a t i o n a l m ilita ry service. In ad d itio n to the two IQ scores, the hoys
h o m e a n d fam ily b ackgro u n d s and the total years ot sc h o o lin g were
a v a il a b le for analysis.
T h e a v e r a g e su b je c t in the study had co m p le te d only eight years o f
s c h o o l i n g , w h ich m e a n s that m any of them had c o m p le te d fewer. Fewer
t h a n 10 p e r c e n t of th e m had finished high school, an d still fewer had
g o n e o n to university. C o m p a r e d to present-day S w e d e n or A m e r ic a ,
th e m e n e x p e r ie n c e d a wide range of years in school. E v en so, the m ain
d e t e r m i n e r by far o f I Q at rhe age of 20 was the IQ at the age of 10, by
a fa c to r of m o re th a n five tim es as im p ortant as years o f sc h o o l i n g .1-''1
O n th e o t h e r h a n d , sc h o o lin g was a significant th o u gh m u ch w eaker
p re d ic to r, after h o ld in g IQ at age 10 and family b ackgro un d c o n sta n t.
S in c e there was so m e beneficial e ffe c t o f s c h o o l i n g , the results o f the

study were properly used to argue t h a t a d d i t i o n a l years of school w ould
pay off in h igh e r scores.
We c a n infer from the S w ed ish stu d y t h a r s o m e o f the Flynn effect
around the world is ex p la in ed by t h e u p w a rd eq ualizatio n o f sch oolin g ,
hut a by-prod uct is that sc h o o lin g in a n d of it s e lf n o longer predicts a d ult
in telligence as strongly, assum in g it d id s o w h e n m any people were no t
g ettin g m u ch s c h o o lin g .12'1T h e m o r e u n i f o r m a countrys sc h o o lin g is,
the more correlated the adult IQ is w ith c h i l d h o o d IQ.
T h e av e ra g e A m e r ic a n now g e t s m o r e t h a n three extra years of
sc h o o lin g c o m p a re d to the time w h e n th e e a r l i e s t intelligence tests were
given. T o be sure, years sp ent in s c h o o l still v a r ie s in A m erica, a n d it is
presum ably still c o n trib u tin g to v a r i a t i o n in c o g n itiv e abilities.12" 1 But
g iv en h ow sm all the effect was in t h e S w e d e n of the 1930s and 1940s,
it is unlikely to be large in A m e r i c a to d a y , g iv e n the enorm ous c o m
p ressio n of e d u c a tio n a l variation in A m e r i c a d u rin g the twentieth c e n
tury (see C h a p t e r s 1 and 6). N e v e r t h e l e s s , we a c c e p t the basic prem ise
that va riatio n in the am o u n t of s c h o o l i n g a c c o u n t s for som e portion o f
rhe ob served va riatio n in c o g n itiv e ab ility. B e sid e s not know ing how
large this re m a in in g effect is, it is h a rd to e s t i m a t e how m uch more would
be g ain ed o n the av erage by further e q u a l i z a t i o n o f years of sch oolin g .
C a i n s reap ed at the bo tto m o f the c o g n i t i v e a b ility distribution m ay be
paid for by losses at the top, a p ro c e ss w e d isc u ss in the next chapter.
S c h o o l d ifferen ces c a n n o n e th e l e s s b e im p o r ta n t. If a child is near
the top of the in telligence d istr ib u tio n t o b e g in with, the sc h o o l c a n
m ake a m a jo r difference in w h e th e r t h a r in te lle c tu a l talent is actually
realized, a topic we c on sid er in the n e x t c h a p te r . O r if a child h a s s p e
cific learning d isabilities, access to t h e la t e s t p e d a g o g ic a l te c h n iq u e s a n d
tec h n o lo g y m ay m ak e a m a jo r d iffe re n c e . T h e r e doubtless are, in a d d i
tion, p o c k e ts in A m e r i c a s vast e d u c a t i o n a l r e a lm where schools are u n
c o m m o n ly g o o d or u n c o m m o n ly p o o r, in w h ich rhe c h ild ren are
ben efitin g or suffering cognitively. B y d e f i n i t i o n , however, these are u n
usual cases, n o t likely to show up in n a t i o n a l d a t a on intelligence.
T h is d isc u ssio n has not m e a n t t o im p ly t h a t the fostering o f c o g n i
tive ability is the only result we w a n t f r o m s c h o o l s . T h e civility, let a lo n e
the safety, o f the e n v ir o n m e n t m ay v a ry w id e ly from sch ool to sc h o o l.
Skillful teac h ers m ay m ake le a rn in g m o r e in terestin g. T h e y may infuse
c h ild re n with a love of learning t o s o m e e x t e n t . T h e s e are effects w orth
w orrying a b o u t, but they do no t a l t e r t h e f u n d a m e n t a l message th a t th e
,398 Living Together
d ata c on v ey : E q u aliz in g th e a m o u n t or objective quality o f sc h o o lin g in

A m e ric a c a n n o t be c o u n t e d on to equalize c og n itiv e ability m uch.
C o m p en sato ry E d u c atio n
Just a year prior to the C o l e m a n report, the U .S . C o n g r e ss passed the

Elem entary a n d S e c o n d a r y E d u cation A c t ( E S E A ) o f 1965, thereby
opening a m a ssiv e a n d c o n tin u in g effort to im prove the e d u c a tio n o f
d isa d v an tag e d stu d e n ts th a t c o n tin u es to this day. In the first fiscal year,
grants for e d u c a t io n a l l y deprived children under Title 1 of the E S E A
went from zero to $3 b illio n , rose to $4 billion in the n ex t year, and hav e
rem ained there, or higher, ever since. Expenditures in fiscal 1992 were
at an all-tim e h ig h o f $ 5 . 6 billion (all figures are in 1990 dollars)."'1
S p o n so r s o f T itle 1 assu m e d that these programs would narrow the gap
in co g n itiv e fu n c t i o n i n g betw een disadv antaged children and oth e r stu
dents. T o p ro v e this, the act also funded an aggressive, o n g o in g e v a lu a
tion effort, resu ltin g o v e r the years in a m ou n tin g stack of reports. In the
m id -1970s, th e N a t i o n a l Institute o f E d u cation ( N I E ) c o m m issio n e d a
synthesis o f th e results. R e v ie w in g all the federal studies from 1965 to
1975, research ers fou n d n o e v id e n c e that students in c o m p e n sato ry e d
ucation p ro g ra m s c lo se d the gap with their more able peers. S o m e p la u
sible d a ta su g g e ste d th a t stud ents in c om pen satory p rogram s tend to fall
behind o t h e r stu d e n ts, but no t as fast as if they had received n o c o m
p ensatory in s tr u c tio n s , an ou tc o m e that the institute treated as e v i
d ence o f s u c c e s s .30 T h e greatest support in the various studies was for a
sim pler n o e ffe c t c o n c lu sio n : T h e gap was about as great after c o m p e n
satory e d u c a t io n as b e fo r e .1 11 N o e v id en ce w h atsoever sup ported a c o n
clusion th a t c o m p e n s a t o r y ed u c atio n narrowed the a c h ie v e m e n t gap.
M ore o p tim istic ally , supporters ot c om pen satory ed u c atio n c an call
upon the e v i d e n c e of c o n v e rg in g black-white test scores th at we d e
scribed in C h a p t e r 13 as in direct evid en ce that something p o sitiv e has
been h a p p e n i n g in e l e m e n ta ry and secondary ed u catio n for m inorities.
A s we d e sc rib e d , im p r o v e m e n t has been the largest at the b o tto m o f the
IQ d istrib u tio n , w h ic h in turn p oin ts toward com pen satory p rogram s as
a possible c a u se . But d ire c t ev id en c e o f the link rem ain s elusive. In re
cent years, c o m p e n s a t o r y program s hav e set m ore m od est goals, for
th e m se lv e s.1*21 N ow , they focus on teach in g specific a c a d e m ic skills or
problem so lv in g , n o t e x p e c tin g im p rovem en ts in overall ac a d e m ic
a c h i e v e m e n t or g e n e ra l in te llig e n c e .
Stories Too G ood to B e True
A ccounts of phe no m enal success stories in ed u catio n the inner-city

school that suddenly excels as the result of a new program or a new
teacher are a perennial fixture o f A m e rican journalism . Are they true? If
the question is w hether an inspirational teacher or some new program has
the capacity to make an im portant difference in students lives, then the
answer is surely yes. But claims for long-term academ ic im provem ent, let
alone increases in cognitive functioning, typically fade as soon as hard
questions begin to be asked. A case in p o in t is C h ic a g o s M arva C ollins,
w ho gained n atio nal attention w ith claims th at her shoestring-hudget in-
ner-ciry school, launched in 1975, was tu rn in g out students who blew the
top off standardized tests and were heading to the best universities. Be
tween the ages o f 5 and 10, she claim ed, her pupils, deem ed unreachable
in regular schools, were reading Plato, A ristotle, C haucer, Shakespeare,
and Tolstoy, according to stories in the popular media. A ccording to other
newspaper reports, she was asked by b o th Presidents Reagan and C lin to n
to become secretary of education. She continues to train large numbers of
teachers in her m ethods.,'1Are her celebrated anecdotes borne out by data?
W e do n o t know. Despite years of publicity about M arv a C ollins, we can
find no hard e v iden ce ."
More generally, the large test score increases in local schools that are
widely and routinely reported by the m edia have been plagued hy fraud. In
several schools in and around W ashing to n, D .C ., for example, the W ash
ington Post reported that gains in rest performance were found to he due to
improper coaching on the tests by school employees or hy allowing extra
tim e tor students to complete the tests. A story in the Los Angeles Times
told of various m ethods of cheating on standardized tests, including the re
placing of w rong answers with right ones by teachers and staff, in at least
fifty elementary public schools statewide. ' T he N ew York Times wrote
about a public school principal who had been caught tam pering w ith stu
dent test scores for years.'8 These specific instances seem to be part of a
widespread problem .|w|
R aising IQ A m o n g the School-A ged: C o n v erg in g R esu lts from T w o

D ivergent Tries
T h e q u estio n rem ain s: Is there any e v i d e n c e t h a t c o g n itiv e ab ility a s

m easured hy IQ tests c a n be in creased hy sp e c ia l in te r v e n t io n s after c h i l
dren reach sc h o o l age? W e h a v e so m e r e a so n for t h i n k in g the an s w e r is
a highly q ualified yes, an d so m e basis for e s t i m a t in g h ow m u ch , fro m
two sources o f e v id e n c e drawn from strikingly d ifferen t c on texts.
400 Living Together
T h e first is o n e o f the largest controlled exp erim en ts a tt e m p tin g e x

p lic itly t o raise the in te llig e n c e o f sch ool-ag e children. It occurred in
V e n e z u e la , w h ere in 197 9 the in co m in g president n am ed to his cahiner
a M i n i s t e r o f S t a t e for the D e v e lo p m e n t o f H u m a n I n tellig en c e.1'11''1T h e
n e w m in iste r was c o n v i n c e d that a nation 's average in tellectual level
was f u n d a m e n t a l to its w ell-being, and he set out to see w h at c ou ld he
d o n e to raise th e IQ o f V en ez u ela n sch ool children. T h e result was Pro
j e c t I n te llig e n c e , d e sig n e d over four years hy a ream of V en ezu elan and
A m e r i c a n p sy c h o lo g ists, ed ucators, and other specialists. In the fifth
year, 9 0 0 y o u n g sters in se v e n th grade in a poor district of a V enezuelan
p r o v i n c i a l city were ran d o m ly divided in to exp erim ental and c ontrol
g r o u p s .1" 1 T h o s e in the ex p e rim e n tal group were taught a p p ro x im ately
six ty forty -five-m in u te lessons in addition to their regular curriculum
d u r in g th e year a n d were cognitiv ely rested before, during, an d after the
year. T h e stu d e n ts in the c o n tro l group were tested at the sam e in ter
va ls, w ith o u t re c e iv in g any of the ad d ition al instruction. T h e special
lesso n s in v o lv e d in stru c tio n in the kinds o f intellectual activities thar
tu r n up o n in te llig e n c e tests visuospatial and verbal reaso n in g , v o
c a b u la r y and word a n a lo g ie s in ad d ition to lessons in in v e n tiv e t h i n k
in g .1421 A t the end o f the year, the youngsters in the ex p e rim e n tal group,
c o m p a r e d to the c o n tr o ls, had gained a net o f more than 0.4 standard
d e v i a t i o n on a c o n v e n t i o n a l intelligence test and a net gain of just over
0.1 sta n d a r d d e v i a t io n o n a culture-fair in telligence test in other
w ord s, a n e t g a in in the ran g e betw een 1.6 and 6.5 IQ points. T h e r e was
n o c h a n c e to see if rhe g a i n faded out or was reflected in the rest of the
s t u d e n t s a c a d e m ic p erfo rm an c e, nor c an we even guess how m uch a
s e c o n d or third year of lesson s would h av e accom plished.
T h e s e c o n d sou rce of e v id e n c e c om es from the unsystem atic but m a s
siv e a t t e m p t to raise in te llig e n c e that goes on in the in n um erable c o m
m e r c ia l c o a c h i n g serv ic es p rom ising to raise S A T scores. Few p eop le
th i n k of the p r e p c ou rses in that way. O n the surface, it is all ab o u t g e t
tin g in to th e c o lle g e of your choice. But raising an S A T is just like rais
in g a n I Q if th e S A T is a n intelligence test and, how ever adroitly rhe
c u r r e n t o ffic ials ot the C o l l e g e Board and the adm issions officers in u n i
v e rsitie s try to av oid sa y in g so, the S A T is partly an in telligen ce test.14,1
C a n th e S A T he c o a c h e d ? Yes, bur it is no t easy. Everyone w ho looks
in to th is to p ic im m e d ia te ly hears ab o u t students who gained 100, 150,
o r 2 0 0 p o i n t s cm rhe S A T after a few hours of coaching. T h e rales may
e v e n b e true, but they n e e d to he av eraged with the tales that d o n t net
told ab o u t the scores th at im prove by on ly a few p o i n ts and the sc o re s

thar d rop after s p e n d in g a few dozen h o u r s a n d hundreds o f dollars o n
a c o a c h i n g course. S c h o la r s h a v e by n o w l a r g e l y sorted out the reality
behind th e sales p itches. A fte r a furious d e b a t e a b o u t the issue in the
late 1970s an d early 1980s, the best e v i d e n c e in d ic a te s that the c o a c h -
ing p rogram s w h ich c a n offer c o n v i n c i n g s c ie n t if i c b a ck in g for th e ir
cla im s c on sist n o t o f a few hours o f p ra c tic e b u t o f lengthy training, c o m -
parable to g o in g to sc h o o l full tim e.4-1 In t h e best o f these analyses,
S a m u e l M e ssic k an d A n n Ju n geb lu t r e v i e w e d t h e published studies o n
c o a c h in g for th e S A T , elim in a ted the o n e s t h a t were m eth o d o lo g ic a lly
unsoun d, an d e stim a t e d in a regression a n a l y s i s rhe p o in t g ain tor a g iv e n
num ber of hours sp en t studying for the t e s t . 11 T h e i r estim ate of the e f
fect of sp e n d in g thirty hours on either th e v e r b a l or m a th test in a c o a c h
ing course ( in c lu d in g hom ew ork ) was a n a v e r a g e o f sixteen points o n
the verbal S A T a n d tw enty-five p o in ts for t h e m a th SA T . Larger in
vestm en ts in tim e earn larger payoffs w ith d i m i n i s h i n g returns. For e x
am ple, 100 h ou rs of studying for either te st e a r n s an average twenty-four
p o in ts o n the verbal S A T an d thirty-n ine p o i n t s on the m ath SAT. T h e
next figure su m m arizes the results of t h e ir a n a ly s is.
S tu d y in g really d oes help, but c o n sid e r w h a t is involved. S ixty h o u rs
T h e d im in ish in g re tu rn s to c o a c h i n g fo r th e S A T
A v erage im provem ent in S A T p o in ts

60-
H ours o f S tu d y in g
Source: M essick an d ju n geblut 1981, Figs. 1, 3.
402 Living Together
o f w ork is n o t a trivial in v e s tm e n t o f tim e, b u t it buys ( o n a v e rag e ) only

forty-on e p o in ts o n t b e c o m b in e d V e rb a l a n d M a t h S A T s typically n o t
e n o u g h to m a k e m u c h d ifferen ce if a s tu d e n t is trying to im press a n a d
m issio n s c o m m itte e . E v e n 3 0 0 h o u rs a n d n o w we are ta lk in g a b o u t
tw o a d d itio n a l hours for 1 50 sch ool days c a n be e x p e c te d to reap o n ly
s e v e n ty a d d itio n a l p o in ts o n th e c o m b in e d score. A n d at 3 0 0 hours ( 1 5 0
for e a c h test), th e stu d e n t is alread y at the flat p art o f th e curve. D o u
b le the in v e s tm e n t to 6 0 0 hours, a n d th e e x p e c te d g a i n is on ly fifteen
m o re p oints.
A l t h o u g h in ten d ed for utterly differen t purposes, th e benefits o f the
V e n e z u e la n p ro g ram a n d o f S A T c o a c h i n g sc h o o ls are rem ark ab ly s im
ilar. T h e sixty lessons o f th e V e n e z u e la n course, re p re se n tin g forty-five
hours o f study, ad d e d b e tw e e n . 1 a n d .4 sta n d a r d d e v i a tio n o n v ariou s
in te llig e n c e tests. F ro m th e figure o n S A T c o a c h in g , we e stim a te th a t
4 5 h ou rs o f studying ad d s a b o u t .16 stan d a rd d e v i a tio n to th e V erbal
score a n d a b o u t .23 s ta n d a rd d e v i a t io n to th e M a t h sc o re .1401
T h e s e in creases in te st scores re p re se n t a m ix o f c o a c h i n g effects
c r a m m i n g is th e p rocess, w ith a q u ite tem po rary effect, t h a t y o u m ay
r e m e m b e r fro m sc h o o l days a n d p erh ap s a n a u th e n tic in crease in i n
telligen ce. W e also are lo o k in g a t sh ort-term results h ere a n d m u st keep
in m in d t h a t w h e n e v e r test score follow -ups h a v e b e e n av a ila b le (see
t h e n e x t se c tio n ) , th e g ain s fad e out. T h e n e t result is t h a t any p la u si
b le e stim a t e o f the lo n g -term in crease in real c o g n itiv e ability m u st be
sm all, a n d it is p ossib le to m a k e th e c a se t h a t it a p p ro a c h e s zero.
T a k e n together, the n e g a t iv e findings a b o u t the effects o f n atu ral
v a r ia t io n in sc h ools, th e fin d in g s o f n o effect e x c e p t m a y b e to slow the
fa llin g - b e h in d p ro c ess in th e e v a lu a tio n s o f c o m p e n sa to ry e d u c atio n ,
a n d th e results o f the V e n e z u e la n a n d S A T c o a c h i n g efforts all p o i n t to
th e sam e c o n c lu sio n : A s o f now, th e g o a l o f raisin g in te llig e n c e a m o n g
sc h o o l- a g e c h ild re n m o re t h a n m odestly, a n d d o in g so c o n siste n tly an d
affordably, re m a in s o u t o f reach.
H E A D ST A R T A N D IT S SO M ETIM ES D IS T A N T R E L A T IV E S
D u rin g th e 1 9 7 0 s w h e n sc h olars were g e ttin g used to th e d isa p p o in tin g

results o f p ro g ram s for sc h o o l- a g e ch ild ren , they were also c o m in g to a
c o n se n su s t h a t I Q b e c o m e s h a rd to b u d g e a t a b o u t th e tim e ch ild ren g o
to sc h o o l. L o n g i tu d in a l studies fo u n d t h a t in d iv id u a l differen ces in I Q
stabilized at a p p r o x im a t e ly age 6.47 M e a n w h ile , d e v e l o p m e n t a l p sy
c h o lo g ists fo u n d t h a t the year-to-year c o rrelatio n s in m e n t a l test p e r

fo r m a n c e were clo se to zero in the first few years o f life a n d th e n rose to
asy m p to tic levels by ag e 6 .48 T h e s e fin d in g s c o n fo rm e d w ith th e in tu
itive n o t io n that, in th e p o e t s words, as the twig is b e n t th e tre e s in
c lin e d . 1491 A n y in te r v e n t io n d e sig n e d to in crease in te llig e n c e (or
c h a n g e an y o th e r ba sic c h arac teristics o f th e c h ild ) m u st start early, a n d
th e earlier th e better.50 H ere, we will c h aracterize th e m o re n o ta b l e a t
t e m p ts to h e lp c h ild re n th ro u g h p re sc h o o l in te rv e n tio n s a n d s u m m a
rize th e e x p e rt c o n se n su s a b o u t th em .
Preschool P ro gram s fo r D isad v an tag ed C h ildren in G e n e ral
H ead S t a r t . O n e o f the old est, largest, a n d m o st en d u rin g o f th e c o n

te m p o rary p ro g ram s d e sig n e d to foster in te lle c tu a l d e v e l o p m e n t c a m e
a b o u t as th e result o f th e E c o n o m i c O p p o r tu n ity A c t o f 1 96 4, th e o p e n
ing sa lv o o f L y n d o n J o h n s o n s W a r o n Poverty. A year later, th e m a n
d a te d e x e c u tiv e agency, th e O ffic e o f E c o n o m i c O p p ortu n ity , la u n c h e d
P ro je c t H e a d S ta r t, a p ro g ra m in te n d e d to b re a k th e cycle o f p o v e rty by
ta rg e tin g p re sc h o o l c h ild re n in p o o r fa m ilie s.1511 D e sig n e d initially as a
s u m m e r p rogram , it was q u ic k ly c o n v e r te d in to a year-long p ro g ra m p r o
v id in g classes for raisin g p r e sc h o o le rs in te llig e n c e a n d c o m m u n i c a t i o n
skills, g iv in g th eir fam ilies m e d ic a l, d en tal, a n d p sy c h o lo g ic a l services,
e n c o u r a g in g p a r e n ta l in v o l v e m e n t a n d training, a n d e n ric h in g th e c h il
d r e n s d ie ts.1521 Very soo n , th o u sa n d s o f H e a d S t a r t cen ters e m p lo y in g
tens o f th o u sa n d s o f workers were a n n u a lly s p e n d in g h u n d red s o f m il
lion s o f dollars a t first, t h e n billio ns, o n h u n d re d s o f th o u sa n d s o f c h il
d re n a n d th eir fam ilies.
T h e earliest returns o n H e a d S t a r t w ere e x h ilara tin g . A few m o n th s
s p e n t by p resc h o o lers in th e first su m m e r p ro g ram se e m e d to b e p r o
d u c in g in credible I Q g ain s as m u c h as t e n p o in ts .1531 T h e h e a d o f the
O ffic e o f E c o n o m i c O p p o r t u n it y 1541 re p o rted the g ain s to C o n g r e s s in
th e sprin g o f 1966, a n d th e p ro g ra m was e x p a n d e d . B y th e n , how ever,
e x p erts were n o tic in g th e d r e a d e d f a d e -o u t, th e g rad u al c o n v e r g e n c e
in test scores o f th e c h ild re n w h o p a r tic ip a te d in th e p ro g ra m w ith c o m
p a ra b le c h ild re n w h o h a d n o t. T o sh o r t e n a lo n g story, every serious a t
te m p t to assess th e im p a c t o f H e a d S t a r t o n in te llig e n c e h a s fou n d
fa d e -o u t.1551 C o g n i t i v e ben efits t h a t c a n o fte n be p ic k e d up in th e first
grade o f sc h o o l are usually g o n e by the th ird grade. B y s ix th grade, they
h a v e v a n is h e d entirely in ag g reg ate statistics.
H-04 Living Together
H e a d S t a r r p ro g ram s, adm inistered locally, vary greatly in quality.

Perhaps, s o m e h a v e suggested, the good program s are raising in telli
gence, but th eir im p a c t is diluted to invisibility in natio n al statistics.
T h a t r e m a in s p ossible, hut it bec om es ever less probable as time passes
without any c le a r e v id e n c e for it em erging. To this point, no lasting
im p ro v e m e n ts in in tellig en c e h av e ever been statistically validated with
an^ H e a d S t a r t p ro g ram . M any ot the c o m m en tato rs w ho praise H ead
Start v alue its fam ily co u n selin g and public health benefits, while g ra n t
ing that it d o e s n o t raise the intelligence of the c h il d r e n ."
O n e re sp o n se to rhe d isa p p o in tm en t of H ead S tart has been to r e d e
fine its g o a ls. In ste a d o f raising intelligence, c on tem p orary ad v o c a te s
say it red u ces lon g -term school failure, crime, and illegitimacy and im
proves e m p lo y a b ility .1 * 1T h e s e delayed benefits are called sleeper effects,
and they are w h a t presum ably justify the frequent public assertion s that
a d ollar s p e n t o n H e a d S tart earns three dollars in rhe future," or words
to that e ffe c t.|W| R ut e v e n these claim s do not survive scrutiny. The e v
idence for sle e p e r effects, such as it is, alm ost never c o m e s from H ead
S tart p ro g ram s th e m se lv e s but from more intensive an d e x p en siv e
p reschool i n t e r v e n t io n s . 1"01
Pl-RRY P r e s c h o o l . T h e study in voked most often as e v id en c e that 1 lead

Start works is k n o w n as the Perry Preschool Program. D av id Weikart
and his a sso c ia te s h a v e drawn enorm ous m edia atten tio n tor their study
o f 123 b l a c k c h ild r e n (divided in to exp erim ental and c o n tro l groups)
from th e in n e r city in Ypsilanti, M ich ig an , whose IQ s m easured b etw een
70 and 85 w h e n they were recruited in the early 1960s at the age of 3
o r 4 - |M| Fifty-eigh t ch ild ren in the program received c o g n itiv e in struc
tion five h a lt-d a y s|6Z| a week in a highly enriched p reschool settin g tor
one or tw o years, a n d their h o m e s were visited by teachers weekly tor
further in stru c tio n of parents and children. T h e teacher-to-child ratio
was high ( a b o u t tine to five), and most of the teachers had a master's
degree in a p p r o p r ia te child d ev elo p m en t and social work fields. Perry
Preschool re se m b le d the average H ead S ta rt program as a Ferrari re
sem bles the fam ily sed an .
T h e fifty-eight c h ild re n in the exp erim en tal group were com p a red
with a n o t h e r sixty-five who served as the c ontrol group. By the e n d ot
their o n e o r tw o years in the program, the children who went to
p resch ool w ere sc o rin g eleven points higher in IQ th an the c ontrol
group. B u t hy th e end of the second grade, they were just m arginally
ah ead o f the c o n tr o l group. By the e n d o f t h e fourth grade, no sig n if i

c a n t difference in IQ rem ain ed .16,1 F a d e o u t ag a in .
A lth o u g h th is in tensive a tt e m p t t o ra ise intelligence failed t o p r o
duce lasting IQ gains, the Ypsilanti g ro u p b e l ie v e s it has found e v id e n c e
for a higher lik elih o o d of high sc h o o l g r a d u a t i o n and som e posth igh
sch ool e d u c a tio n , higher e m p lo y m e n t r a t e s an d literacy scores, low er
arrest rates and fewer years sp en t in sp e c ia l e d u c a tio n classes as a result
of the year or tw o in preschool. T h e e ffe c ts are sm all and som e o f th e m
fall short of statistical sig n ifica n c e.|M| T h e y hardly justify in v estin g bil
lions of dollars in run-of-the-mill H e a d S t a r t programs.
O thhr Lo n g i t u d in a l S tu d ie s of Pr e s c h o o l P r o g r a m s . O n e p r o b
lem f a c e d by a n y o n e w h o tries t o s u m m a r i z e th is lite ra tu re is j u s t like
rhat f a c e d hy p e o p l e try in g to f o r m u l a t e p u b l i c policy. W it h h u n d r e d s
of s t u d i e s m a k i n g t h o u s a n d s of c l a i m s , w h a t c a n be c o n c l u d e d ? W e are
f o r t u n a t e t o h a v e t h e b e n e f i t o f t h e e f f o r t s o t a g r o u p of so c ia l s c i e n t i s t s
k n o w n as t h e C o n s o r t i u m for L o n g i t u d i n a l S t u d i e s . In itially c o n c e i v e d
by a C o r n e l l p ro f e s so r , Ir v i n g Lazar, t h e c o n s o r t i u m h a s p u lle d t o g e t h e r
th e re su lts of e l e v e n st u d i e s of p r e s c h o o l e d u c a t i o n ( i n c l u d i n g rhe Pe rry
P r e s c h o o l P r o j e c t ) , c h o s e n b e c a u s e t h e y r e p r e s e n t th e b est a v a i l a b l e s c i
en tifically.*'1 N o n e of t h e m w a s a H e a d S t a r t p r o g r a m , bu t a few w e re
e l a b o r a t i o n s o f H e a d S t a r t , u p g r a d e d a n d .stru ctu red to len d t h e m s e l v e s
to e v a l u a t i o n , a s H e a d S t a r t p r o g r a m s r a r e l y d o . T h e n e x t figure s u m
m a riz es t h e c o g n i t i v e o u t c o m e s in t h e p r e s c h o o l stu d ie s t h a t th e c o n
s o r t iu m d e e m e d s u i t a b l e for f o llo w - u p I Q a n a l y s i s . T h e re p o r t e d c h a n g e s
c o n t r o l for p r e t e s t IQ s c o re , m o t h e r s e d u c a t i o n , se x , n u m b e r of s i b l i n g s ,
and father presence.
S o o n after c o m p le tin g on e o f t h e s e high-quality e x p e rim e n ta l
preschool p rog ram s, the average child r e g is te r s a n et gain in IQ of m o re
th an seven IQ p o in ts, a lm o st half a s t a n d a r d d e v ia tio n . T h e gain sh rin k s
to four to five p o in ts in the first rwo years a f t e r the program, and to a b o u t
three p o in ts in the third year.'661 T h e c o n s o r t i u m also collected later fol
low-up d a ta th at led the researchers to c o n c l u d e that the effect of early
ed u c a tio n on in telligen c e test scores w as n o t p e r m a n e n t.16' 1
Intensive Interventions fur C hildren a t R isk o f M e n tal R etardation
T h e preschool p ro gram s we h a v e just d e s c r i b e d were targeted at d i s a d

v a n tag ed c h ild re n in general. N o w we tu rn t o two studies th at are m o re
intensive th an e v e n the on es analyzed by t h e co n so rtiu m an d deal with
406 Living Together
I Q g a in s a ttr ib u ta b le to th e C o n so rtiu m p re sc h o o l p r o je c ts
M ed ian gain in IQ points

8 -
7-
6-
5-
4-
3-
2-
1-
* E xit test 1 year 2 years 3 years

Period A fter the End o f the Program
Source: Lazar and D arlington 1982, Table 15.
children w h o are c on sid ered to be at high risk of m en tal retardation,

based o n th eir m o t h e r s low IQs and so c io e c o n o m ic d eprivatio n.
A c a se c a n b e m a d e for ex p ec tin g intervention s to be especially ef
fective for th e se child ren, since their en v iro n m en ts are so p oor that they
are unlikely to h a v e h ad any of the benefits that a good p rog ram would
provide. M o re o v e r, if the studies h av e c ontrol groups an d are r e a so n
ably well d o c u m e n t e d , there is at least a h op e of d ec id in g w hether the
p rogram s s u c c e e d e d in forestalling the em ergence of retardation. We
will briefly c h a ra c te riz e the two studies ap p rox im atin g th ese c o n d itio n s
that h a v e re c e iv e d th e most scientific and m edia a tten tio n .
T he A B E C E D A R IA N P r o j e c t . T h e C a ro lin a A b ec e d a ria n Project started

in the early 1 970s, under the guid an ce of C ra ig R am ey and his a s s o c i
ates, th e n at th e U n iversity o f N o rth C a ro lin a .68 T h r o u g h various s o
cial a g e n c ie s, they located pregn an t w om en whose child ren would be at
high risk for re ta rd a tio n . A s the babies were b o m , the o n e s w ith o b v i
ous n e u ro lo g ic d iso rders were exclu d ed from the study, but the re m a in
der were a ssig n e d to two groups, presumably randomly. In al 1, th ere were
four c o h o r t s o f e x p e rim e n ta l an d control children. B o th groups of b a
bies a n d th eir fa m ilie s received a variety o f m edical and social work ser
vices, b u t o n e g rou p o f babies (th e e x p erim en tals ) went into a day care
program. T h e p ro g ram started w h en the b a b ie s were ju st o v e r a m o n t h

old, and it p ro v id ed care for six to e ig h t h ou rs a day, five d ay s a w eek ,
fifty weeks a year, em ph asizin g c o g n itiv e e n r i c h m e n t ac tiv itie s w ith
teacher-to-child ratios of on e to three for in fan ts and o n e to four to o n e
to six in later years, until the c h ild re n re a c h e d the age o f 5. It a lso i n
cluded e n ric h ed n utritio n an d m e d ic a l a t t e n t io n until th e in fants w ere
18 m o n th s o ld .69 T h e A b e c e d a r ia n P ro ject is the ap oth eosis o f the d ay
care ap p roach . T h i s is extrem ely useful from a m e th o d o lo g ic a l p e r s p e c
tive: Ev en if rhe n a t io n c a n n o t afford to sup ply the sam e services to the
entire n a t io n a l p o p u la tio n of ch ild ren w ho q ualified for the A b e c e d a r
ian P roject, it serves as a way o f d efin in g the o u te r limit o f w h at day c a re
can a c c o m p lish g iv e n the current state of t h e art.
A t the end o f the fifth year, the c h ild re n receiv in g th e day c a r e
outscored those w h o did no t by half a sta n d a r d d e v ia tio n o n a n i n t e ll i
g en c e test. A t last report, the c h ild re n were 12 years old and were still
d o in g better in tellectually than the con trols. C o m b i n i n g all th e c o h o r ts,
only 28 p erc en t of rhe e x p erim en tal c h ild re n h ad repeated a grad e, c o m
pared to 55 p erc en t of the c on trol c hild ren. O n ly 13 p erc en t o f th e e x
p erim en tal ch ild ren had IQs of less t h a n 85, c o m p a re d to 4 4 p e r c e n t of
the c o n tro l c h ild r e n .70
T h i s would b e un eq u iv o c al g o o d news, e x c e p t for c h a rg e s th a t th e
two groups were n o t c o m p a rab le in th eir in tellec tu al p ro sp e c ts at b irth .
Ignoring the m o re tec h n ica l issues, the m a j o r stu m blin g b l o c k to d e
c id in g w h at the A b e c e d a r ia n P ro ject h as a c c o m p lis h e d is t h a t th e e x
p erim en tal c h ild re n had already outsco red the c on trols o n c o g n i t i v e
p erform an c e tests by at least as large a m arg in (in stan dard sc o re u n i t s )
by the age of 1 or 2 years, and p e r h a p s e v e n by 6 m o n th s, a s th ey h a d
after nearly five years of in tensive day c a re .[711 T h e r e are tw o m a in e x
p la n a tio n s for this anomaly. Perhaps the in te rv e n tio n had a c h i e v e d all
its effects in th e first m o n th s or the first y ear o f the p roject ( w h ic h , if
tm e, would h a v e im p o rta n t policy im p lic a tio n s) . O r p e r h a p s th e e x
p erim en tal an d c o n tro l groups were d ifferen t to begin w ith ( t h e s a m p l e
sizes for an y of th e e x p e rim e n ta l or c o n tro l groups was no larger t h a n
fifteen a n d as sm a ll as nine, so r a n d o m s e le c t io n with such sm all n u m
bers gives no g u a ra n te e th at the e x p e r im e n t a l a n d con trol g ro u p s w ill
be e q u iv a le n t). T o m ak e things still m ore u n c e rta in , test scores for c h i l
dren youn ger th a n 3 years are p oor p re d ic to rs o f later in t e llig e n c e test
scores, a n d test results for infants at the a g e o f 3 or 6 m o n t h s are e x
408 Living Together
trem ely unreliable. It w ould therefore be difficult in any case to assess

th e ran d o m p l a c e m e n t from early test scores. T h e d e b ate ov er the re-
suits is o n g o in g a n d unresolved as we write.
T H E MILWAUKEE P r o j e c t . T h e A b e c e d a ria n Project was inspired by an

earlier a tte m p t to forestall m en tal retardation in a p o p u la tio n o f
c h ild re n w ho were a t high risk. T h e fam ous M ilw aukee P ro ject started
in 1 9 6 6 u nd er th e supervision o f R ichard Heber, a professor at the
U n iv ersity o f W is c o n s in (M a d iso n ) who had been research d irecto r of
P resid ent J o h n F. K e n n e d y s panel on m ental retardatio n at the
b e g in n in g o f th e d e c a d e . H ealth y babies of poor black m o th ers with
IQ s below 75 were alm o st, but not quite, random ly assigned to no day
care at all or day care starting at 3 m o n th s and c o n tin u in g until they
w e n t to school. T h e day care lasted all day, five days a week, all year.
T h e fam ilies of the babies selected for day care received a variety of
a d d itio n a l se rv ic e s an d h e a lth care. T h e m others were p aid for
p a rtic ip a tio n , rec eiv ed training in parenting and job skills, a n d their
o th e r young c h ild re n received free child care. O n ly thirty-five
c h ild re n are c o n sid e re d to hav e c om pleted the study, s e v e n te e n
re c e iv in g the sp ec ial atte n tio n and the rem ainder serving as controls.
S o o n after the M ilw au k ee p roject began, reports of e n o rm o u s net
g a in s in IQ ( m o r e t h a n 25 p oints) started ap p earing in the p op u la r m e
d ia an d in p sy c h o lo g y tex tb o ok s.'" However, there was a d earth of p u b
lic a tio n that allow ed exp erts to evaluate the project. T h e few tech n ical
ite m s that a p p e a r e d raised m ore q uestions th an they an sw ered .'* It was
n o t until 1988 t h a t an o th e r W isco nsin professor asso ciated w ith the
work, H o w a r d G a r b e r , p ublished an interpretable analysis o f w h at had
b e e n d on e in the M ilw au k ee Project and w hat was foun d.1''11
By the ag e o f 12 to 14 years, the children who had b een in the p r o
g ra m were sc o r in g a b o u t ten p oints higher in IQ than the controls. C o m
p ared to o th e r early in tervention s, this is a notably large difference. But
th is increase w as n o t a c c o m p a n ie d by increases in sch ool p erform an c e
c o m p a re d to the c o n tr o l group. E xp erim ental and c ontrol groups were
b o t h o n e to tw o years retarded in reading and m ath skills by the time
th ey reached fo u rth grade; their ac ad em ic averages and their a c h i e v e
m e n t scores were sim ilar, and they were similarly rated by their t e a c h
ers for a c a d e m ic c o m p e t e n c e . From such findings, psychologists C h a r l e s
L o c u r to a n d A r t h u r J e n s e n h av e c on clu ded that the p ro g ra m s s u b s ta n
tial a n d e n d u rin g g ain in IQ h as been produced by c o a c h in g the c h il
Raising ( 'ognitivc Ability 409
dren so well o n tak in g in telligence tests th at t h e ir scores n o longer m e a

sure in tellig en c e or g very vvell.|n| T im e will te ll w h e th e r a more hope-
ful c o n c lu sio n c a n be drawn.
In summary, the two ex p erim en ts c o n t a in so m e p ro m isin g leads. But
it is not o b v io u s where to go from here, for th e y differed in possibly im
p ortant ways. T h e A b e c e d a r ia n Project e v a lu a t e d day care; the M i l
waukee P ro ject provided num erous in te r v e n t io n s besides day care,
in cluding p aren ta l p ay m e n t and training. It is h ard to tell w hether the
former found e n d u rin g IQ benefits, giv en t h e very early d iv ergen ce in
lest scores for e x p e r im e n ta l and c ontrol g rou p s, but so m e acad em ic b e n
efits; rhe latter foun d an end urin g IQ gain, b u t h as no t yet shown c o m
parable in tellectual gains in sch ool work. It m ay be relevan t that the
A b e c e d a ria n m o th e rs had higher IQs than t h e M ilw au k ee m others, so
the child ren m ay no t h av e been at equal risk for retardation.
R e a d in g this history o f interventions, you m a y h a v e noticed a curious

parallelism : In the m edia, the good news is tru m p e te d as if there were
no am biguity; in the technical journals, the g o o d news is viewed with
d eep suspicion a n d discoun ted. A re the s c h o la r s as excessively n i tp ic k
ing as the jo u rn a lists are credulous? H ere is t h e difficult-to-discuss p r o b
lem that o v e r h a n g s the interpretation o f th e se results: T h e people w ho
run these program s u'ant them to succeed. T h i s is hardly a criticism .
People w h o are sp e n d in g their lives trying t o h e lp d isa d v an taged c h i l
dren o u g h t to be passionately c o m m itte d to th eir success. But it is h ard
tor them to turn around and be d isp assio n a te a b o u t the q uestion, H o w
well are we d o in g ? O f t e n the raw d ata from th e se p rog ram s are no t e a s
ily accessible to outside scholars. N o t in frequen tly, w h e n such d a t a f i
nally are m ad e av ailab le, they reveal a differen t an d less positive w'ay of
viewin g the successful results th an the o n e th a t h ad previously b e e n
published.
C o n s e n s u s h as thus been hard to reach, b u t progress is being m ad e.
In our a c c o u n t, we h av e av oid ed dwelling o n t e c h n ic a l problems that,
though p erh ap s valid, would m odify the resu lts only at the m argin .
W h e n we h av e alluded to u n certain ties and m e t h o d o l o g ic a l difficulties,
we h av e restricted ourselves to clear p o t e n t ia l p ro b le m s, which, if true,
seriously w eak en rhe basis for c la im in g success. In o th e r words, we h a v e
tried to avoid n itp ic k in g. T h e fact is that w e an d every on e else are far
from k n o w in g whether, let alo n e how, any o f th e se p ro jec ts hav e in
creased in tellig en c e. W e write this p essim istic c o n c l u s io n k n o w in g h o w
410 Living Toge ther
m a n y o s te n s ib ly successful projects will he cited as p lain an d in dis

p u t a b l e e v i d e n c e t h a t we are willfully refusing to sec the light.
C H A N G I N G T H E E N V IR O N M E N T A T B IR T H
T h e r e is o n e sure way to transform a c h ild s en v iro n m e n t beneficially:

a d o p t i o n o u t o f a b a d e n v iro n m e n t into a good one. If a d o p tio n occurs
a t birth, it is at least possible that the p otential cffects of p o stn a ta l e n
v i r o n m e n t a l d is a d v a n t a g e could be wiped out altogether.1'61 T h e specific
q u e s t io n n o w is: H o w m an y points does bein g raised in a good ad o p tiv e
h o m e ad d to an I Q score?
C h i l d r e n are n o t put up for a d o p tio n for the ed ificatio n ot so cial th e
orists. T h e r e are n o controlled exp erim en ts on the effects of ad o p tio n .
A d o p t i o n usually m ean s trouble in the biological family; trouble usu
ally lan d s o n fam ilies no n ran d om ly and unaccoun tably, m ak in g it hard
to e x t r a c t clear, g eneralizab le data. T h e m ost fam ous studies were mostly
d o n e d e c a d e s ago, w hen th e social and financial in cen tiv es tor ad o p tio n
were d ifferen t fro m to d ay s. Legalized c o n trac e p tio n an d ab o rtio n , too,
W h e n E n viron m ent Is D ecisive
L e st a n y o n e d o u b t th a t e n v i r o n m e n t m a tt e r s in rhe d e v e l o p m e n t of i n t e l
li g e n c e , c o n s i d e r t h e rare a n d bizarre c ases in w h ic h a c h ild is h id d e n away
in a l o c k e d r o o m by a d e m e n t e d ad ult or breaks free of h u m a n c o n t a c t a l
t o g e t h e r a n d ru n s wild. F r o m the e v e n rarer c ase s that are i n v e s ti g a te d an d
told w it h c a r e a n d accuracy , we k n o w th a t if the isolatio n from h u m a n s o
c ie t y lasts fo r years, r a th e r t h a n tor just m o n t h s , the c h ild r e n are i n t e l l e c
tually s t u n t e d fo r l i f e . " S u c h was, for e x a m p l e , the e x p e r ie n c e of t h e W ild
B o y o f A v e y r o n , d i s c o v e r e d in s o u t h e r n F r a n c e s o o n after the R e v o l u t i o n
a n d t h e e s t a b l i s h m e n t o f the first F re n c h R e p u b lic , like a n i n v i t a t i o n to
c o n f i r m R o u s s e a u s v is io n o f the n o b le s av a g e . T h e 12- o r 1 3-year-old boy
h a d b e e n f o u n d r u n n i n g n a k e d in the w oods, m ute, wild, an d e v i d e n tl y out
of c o n t a c t w it h h u m a n i t y for m o st of his life. But, as it turn ed o u t , n e i th e r
h e , n o r t h e o t h e r s like h i m th a t we kn ow ab o u t, re s e m b le R o u s s e a u 's n o
b l e s a v a g e in t h e least. M o s t o f th e m n e v e r learn to s p e ak properly or to
b e c o m e i n d e p e n d e n t adults. T h e y rarely learn to m e e t e v e n rhe lowest
s t a n d a r d s of p e r s o n a l h y g i e n e o r c o n d u c t . T h e y s e e m u n a b le t o b e c o m e
fully h u m a n d e s p i t e h e r o ic efforts to restore t h e m to society. F r o m the se
rare c a s e s w e c a n d r a w a h o p e f u l c o n c lu s io n : It the o rdinary h u m a n e n v i
r o n m e n t is s o e s s e n t i a l fo r b e sto w in g h u m a n in te llig e n c e, we s h o u ld be
a b l e t o c r e a t e e x t r a o r d i n a r y e n v i r o n m e n t s to raise it further.1'''1
h av e altered th e p o o l o f subjects for a d o p t i o n studies. B o th the e n v i

ron m en tal and gen etic legacies o f c h ild re n p u t up for ad op tion h a v e
surely c h a n g e d o v e r the years, but it is i m p o s s i b le to kn o w e x ac tly in
w hat ways an d h ow m uch. In short, a l t h o u g h d a t a are ab u n d a n t a n d we
will draw so m e b ro ad c on c lu sio n s, this is a n a r e a in w hich solid e s t i
m ates are unlikely to be found.
A s a group, a d o p te d child ren do n o t s c o r e a s h i g h as the b io lo g ic a l
children o f their a d o p tin g p a re n ts.1791 T h e d e f ic it m ay be as large as s e v e n
to ten IQ p oin ts. Its no t com pletely clear w h a t th is deficit means. O n e
hyp othesis is th a t the a d op ted c h ild re n s g e n e s h o l d th e m back; a n o t h e r
is that there is an in tellectually d epressin g e ffe c t o f ad o p tio n itself, or
that being p la ced in ad o p tin g h o m e s n o t im m e d i a t e l y after birth (as o n ly
som e of th em are), b u t only after several m o n t h s o r years, loses the b e n
efit ot the n urturing their ad o p tin g parents w o u ld h av e provided ea rlie r
in their lives.
A t the sam e tim e, researchers think it v e r y likely th at adopted c h i l
dren earn high e r scores th an they would h a v e h a d if they been raised by
their b iological p arents, because the a d o p t i n g h o m e e n v ir o n m e n t is
likely to be bette r th a n the on e their b i o l o g ic a l p a re n ts would h a v e p r o
vided. If so, this would be a genuine effect of th e h o m e e n v iro n m e n t.
H ow large is the effect? C h a r le s L ocurto, r e v i e w in g the ev id en ce a n d
striking an av erag e, con c lu d es that it is a b o u t six p o i n t s .80 A s a c o n s e n
sus figure, th at seem s ab out right to us. H o w e v e r , a con sen sus figure is
not w hat we w an t, as Locu rto recognizes. It d o e s n o t identify how w id e
a gap sep arates the e n v iro n m e n ts provided by a d o p t i n g hom es a n d th e
ho m es in w hich the children would h a v e b e e n reared h ad they not b e e n
adop ted . We seek a c o m p a riso n o f the I Q s o f c h ild r e n growing u p in
h o m e s o f a k n o w n low s o c io e c o n o m ic sta t u s a n d g en etic ally c o m p a r a
ble c h ild ren reared in ho m es o f a kn o w n h i g h s o c io e c o n o m ic sta tu s.
W h a t would th e in crem en t in IQ look like t h e n ?
Two a p p r o x im a t io n s to an ideal a d o p tio n study, alb eit with very s m a ll
sam ples, h a v e recently b een d o n e in F r a n c e .81 In o n e , M ic h e l S c h i f f a n d
his c o llea g u es searched French records for c h i l d r e n ab an d o n e d in i n
fancy, born to w orking-class (un skilled) p a r e n t s , w h o were ad o p te d in to
upper-class h o m e s. O n ly thirty-two c h il d r e n m e t th e stu d ys criteria. In
c h ild h o o d , their av erage IQ was 107. T o u n d e r s t a n d w h a t this m e a n s ,
two further c o m p a r iso n s are in order. First, t h e a d o p t e d children sc o re d
eight p oin ts lower o n average th a n their s c h o o l m a t e s , presu m ably fro m
c o m p a ra b le upper-class h om es. T h is c o n f i r m s t h e usual finding w ith
412 Living Together
a d o p t e d c h ild re n . But, second, they scored twelve p oints high e r than

tw e n ty of th eir full or half-siblings who were reared at least for a time
by a b i o lo g ic a l p aren t or gran dparen t in lower-class su rrou n din gs.1'-1
T h i s stud y p r o v id e s a rare c h a n c e to estim ate roughly where the
a d o p t e e s w o u ld h a v e been had they rem ain ed in their original hom es.
A s e c o n d F re n c h study com pared four small groups o f a d o p te d c h i l
d re n , reared in e ith er high- or lo w -S E S hom es, and the b iological off
sp rin g o f h igh - o r lo w -S E S parents. T h u s on e could ask, albeit with only
a h a n d fu l of c h il d r e n ,1**1what hap p en s when children born to l o w -S E S
p a r e n ts are a d o p t e d into a h i g h - S E S h om e or when c h ild ren born to
h i g h - S E S p a re n ts are adopted into lo w -S E S h om es; and so on. In this
stu d y as well, the switch from low to high status in the h o m e e n v ir o n
m e n t p r o d u c e d a tw elve-point benefit in IQ .|M| S u c h findings, of course,
i m p lic a te th e h o m e en v iron m en t as a factor in the d e v e lo p m e n t ot c o g
n itiv e ability. W e c a n n o t be sure how m uch, because we d o no t know
e x a c t l y h o w far d o w n the S E S ladder the children c a m e from, or how
far up th e la d d e r they were m oved into their ad o p tiv e h om es. If rhe
t w e l v e - p o in t shift is produced hy a sm all shift in e n v ir o n m e n t (e.g., a
c h il d of a truck d riv er adopted by rhe family o f a bank clerk), it gives a
g r e a t d eal of h o p e for the effects o f ad op tion ; it it was p rod u ced only by
a h u g e sh ift in th e en v iro n m e n t (e.g., the child o f a c hronically u n e m
p lo yed illiterate ad op ted by the R o th sc h ild s), nor so m u c h hope. In g e n
eral, th e m o r e im p o rta n t the en v iro n m en t is in sh ap in g c o g n itiv e ability,
th e larger th e im p a c t a given c h a n g e in en v iro n m en t has o n IQ.
T o se e w h a t the policy im p lications m ight be, let us suppose that low-
a n d h i g h - S E S h o m e s in the French studies represented the 10th and
9 0 t h c e n t i le s in the quality o f the h om e en v iro n m en t, respectively. If
t h a t were th e case, what m ight be ac c om plish ed by m o v in g child ren
from very d e p r iv e d hom es (at the 2d centile, to m ake the e x a m p le c o n
c r e t e ) to very ad v a n ta g e d on es ( 9 8 th cen tile)? T h e results o f the French
stu d y im p ly t h a t su c h a shift in h om e en v iro n m en t would p rod uce a b e n
efit of a l m o s t tw en ty IQ p o in ts.1* 1
A sw in g ot tw enty points is considerable and seem s to o p e n up the
p o ssib ility o f large gains in in telligence to be had by equalizing h o m e s
u p w a r d , by a p p ro p ria tin g for m ore families w hatever nurturing things
go o n in th e h o m e s o f the top 1 or 2 percent in so c io e c o n o m ic sta tu s .|So1
T h e p r o b l e m , obviously, is that no on e knows how to equalize e n v ir o n
m e n t s up w ard o n so grand a scale, particularly since so m u ch o f what
g o e s o n in t h e n urturing o f child ren is associated with the personality
and b e h a v io r of the p arent, not m aterial w e a l t h . T h i s brings us to a v a

riety of policy issues th at it is now time to d is c u s s m ore explicitly.
A P O L IC Y A G E N D A
Research
N o t h in g is m ore pred ictable th a n that r e s e a r c h e r s will conclude th at

what is m ost n eed ed is m ore research. In th is c a se , however, rhe usually
predictable is a little less so.
C e r ta i n kinds o f research are not n e e d e d . N e x t to n o th in g is to be
learned about h ow ro raise IQ by m ore e v a l u a t i o n s o f H ead S tart, or
even by rep lic atin g m uch better p rogram s s u c h as Perry Preschool or
A b e c e d a ria n . T h e m ain lesson to be le arn e d f r o m these better program s
has already heen learned: It is tough to a l t e r th e e n v iro n m e n t for the
d e v e lo p m e n t of gen era l intellectual abiliry by a n y th in g short of a d o p
tion at birth. By now, researchers know e n o u g h to he con fid en t th at the
n e x t d e m o n str a tio n program is n o t goin g to h e th e m ag ic bullet, becau se
they h av e already d e m o n strated beyond d i s p u t e rhat the e n v ir o n m e n t
is an u n im ag in ab ly c o m p le x m elan ge o f i n f lu e n c e s and inputs for all th e
c h ild s w aking hours (a n d p erh ap s so m e s l e e p i n g h ou rs to o ). N o m e a n
ingful p ro p o rtio n o f that m elan ge c a n r e a s o n a b l y he exp ec ted to he
shaped by m> o u tsid e in terven tion into th e c h i l d s so c ial e n v iro n m e n t,
ev en on e rhat lasts eight hours a day, u sin g t h e repertoire of te c h n iq u e s
now availahle. T o h av e a large effect, we n e e d new know led ge a b o u t
co g n itiv e d e v e lo p m e n t.
N e w k n o w led g e is likely to c o m e from s h a r p l y foc u sed in vestigatio n s
in to the d e v e l o p m e n t ot co g n itiv e ability, c o n d u c t e d in an atm o sp h e re
that im poses n o co n strain ts on the r e se a r c h e r s o th e r th an to seek an d
find useful k n o w led g e within c o m m o n ly a c c e p t e d eth ica l c on strain ts.
T h e m ost p ro m isin g leads may c o m e from in s ig h t s into the p h y sio lo g i
cal basis o f in tellig en c e rather th a n from t h e c u lt u r a l or ed u c atio n al v a r i
ables that h a v e been custom ary in e d u c a t i o n a l research. L o n g - te rm
funding, buffers ag a in st bureaucratic m e d d l i n g , read iness to fund r e
search on the h ard e st q uestions, if they a re b r o u g h t forward by the i n
ner logic o f the sc ien ce, an d no t just the p o l i t i c a l l y correct q uestio n s:
T h is is w hat is n ee d e d , an d what to d a y s r e s e a r c h p ro g ram s seldom p r o
vide. W ith t h a t set of cav ea ts o n the ta b le , m o r e research is in d eed at
the top of our p o licy agend a. B ec au se in t e l l i g e n c e is less than c o m p le te ly
414 Living Together
h e r i t a b l e , we c a n assume that, som e day, it will be possible to raise the

in t e ll i g e n c e o f ch ild ren through en v iro n m en tal in tervention s. Bur new
k n o w le d g e is required. S c ien tific research is the only way to get it.
N utrition
A d v o c a t i n g t h a t all children receive good nutrition d oes n o t c o m e u n

d e r th e h e a d i n g o f daring new ideas. W e ad v o ca te it n o n eth eless. E sp e
c ia lly if th e in co n sisten t but suggestive results ab ou t the effects of
v i t a m i n a n d m in e ra l supplem ents o n cognitive fu n c tio n in g are h o m e
ou t, it w o u ld be worth considering such sup plem ents as part o f school
a n d p r e sc h o o l lu n c h programs.
In v estm en t in Schooling
W h e n q u a n t u m c h an g es are made in ed u c atio n m o v in g from no e d

u c a t i o n to a n elem entary ed ucatio n, or from 6 years of sc h o o lin g to 12
t h e n b r o a d g a in s c a n occur, but the U n i t e d S ta te s has in m o st respects
p a sse d this stag e. A d d itio n a l a ttem p ts to raise IQ through special a c
c e le r a t e d c o u r se s hav e m odest effects: short-term gains o f two to four
I Q p o i n t s after ex ten siv e training. L ong-term gains are less c lear and
likely to be sm aller. In short, the school is no t a p rom ising p la ce to try
to raise in te llig e n c e or to reduce intellectual differences, giv en the c o n
st r a i n t s o n s c h o o l budgets and the state of ed ucational scien ce.
G e n e r a l P u rp o se Preschool Program s
M u c h is alread y kn o w n about w h at c a n be ac c om plish ed by ordinarily

g o o d p r e sc h o o l in terven tion s "ordinarily g o o d m e a n in g th at a few
m o d e s t ly tr a in e d adults who enjoy b ein g with children w a tc h o v er a few
d o z e n c h il d r e n in a p leasant atm osphere. It is hard to know how m any
H e a d S t a r t p ro g ra m s reach this standard. But a vast a m o u n t o f research
tells us t h a t e v e n ordinarily good H e a d S tarts do not affect c o g n itiv e
f u n c t i o n i n g m u c h if at all. T h e re is n o reason to think that any realis
tic a lly im p r o v e d version o f H ead Start, with its thousand s o f cen ters and
m i l l i o n s o f p a rtic ip a n ts, can add m u ch to c og n itiv e fun ction in g . E v en
t h e c la im s for lon g -term benefits o f H e a d S ta r t o n social b e h a v io r are
u n substan tiated.
S u c h f in d in g s d o no t invalidate H e a d S t a r t s value as a few h o u rs
d a il y refuge fo r sm all children w ho need it. But the d eb ate ov er H ead
S t a r t s h o u ld m o v e away from frivolous c la im s ab out how m any dollars
Raising C-ognitw'e Ability 415
it will save in th e long run, n o n e of w h i c h s t a n d s up to e x a m in a tio n ,

and focus in stead o n the degree to w hich it is ac tu ally serving the l a u d
able and m o re fu n d a m e n ta l fu n c tio n of r e s c u i n g sm all children from u n
suitable, joyless, and dangerous e n v ir o n m e n t s .
Highly T argeted Preschool Program s
T h e n a t io n c a n n o t c o n c eiv ab ly i m p l e m e n t a M ilw aukee Pro ject or

A b e c e d a r ia n P ro ject for all d isa d v a n ta g e d c h il d r e n . It is not just the d o l
lar costs rhat put such am b itio n s out o f r e a c h ( th o u g h they d o) but th e
impossibility o f staffing them. W ith r e a c h e r - to - c h ild ratios ranging as
high as o n e to three an d staff-to-child ra tio s e v e n higher, these p rogram s
c o m e close to c a llin g for a trained p erson p e r elig ible child.
Rut should su ch program s he m o u n te d f o r th e extrem es the c h i l
dren far out in th e left-hand tail of h o m e e n v ir o n m e n t s ? W e are n o t
talking ab o u t c h ild re n who are just p o o r o r j u s t living in bad n e ig h b o r
h oods, but c h ild ren w h o are at high risk o f m e n t a l retardation in a n a w
ful e n v ir o n m e n t , with parents who f u n c t i o n at a very low c o g n itiv e
level. S h o u ld su c h ch ild ren be enro lled , w i t h i n a few weeks o f birth, in
a full-tim e day care settin g until they b e g i n k in dergarten ?
T h e d ec isio n c a n n o t be justified purely o n g ro u n d s o f cognitive b e n
efits, ju d gin g from w h at h as c o m e out ot th e M ilw a u k e e and A b e c e d a r
ian projects. O n the oth e r h an d, the e v i d e n c e ab ou t im p rovem en ts in
social a d ju stm e n t from the Perry P re sc h o o l P r o je c t may he relevan t, if
they stan d up to further critical scrutiny. I f t h e y do, then highly i n t e n
sive p reschool p ro gram s h av e an im p o r ta n t ro le to play in socializing
children from h igh ly d isa d v an taged b a c k g r o u n d s . S u c h results are n o t
as hopeful as they are so m etim es portrayed, h u t they may be substan tial.
Earlier, we said th at the cost-benefit c l a i m s for H ead S tart could n o t
w ithstand e x a m in a tio n . For program s t h a t a c h i e v e results c o m p a r a b le
ro those c la im e d tor Perry Preschool, p e r h a p s they cou ld .18'1 But e v e n
this lim ited e n d o r se m e n t is ap p licable o n ly to th e small fraction o f th e
p o p u la tio n that is bo th at substantial risk f o r m e n t a l retardation and l iv
ing in the worst c o n d itio n s. C o m p a r a t i v e l y fe w child ren typically c l a s
sified as d is a d v a n t a g e d fall in that c a te g o r y .
A doption
A d o p t io n at birth from bad e n v i r o n m e n t s in t o good e n v ir o n m e n t s

raises c o g n itiv e fun ction in g , esp ecially in c h i l d h o o d and by a m o u n t s
416 Living Together
t h a t a re n o t w ell established. In general, the worse the h o m e that would

h a v e b e e n p r o v id e d by the biological parents and the better the a d o p
tiv e h o m e , th e greater is the c ogn itiv e benefit of ad op tion . A d o p t i o n at
b i r th s e e m s t o p rod u c e positive n o n c o g n itiv e effects as well. In term s of
g o v e r n m e n t budgets, ad op tion is cheap; the new parents bear all the
c o s t s o f twenty-four-hour-a-day care for eighteen years or so. T h e s u p
ply o f e a g e r a n d qualified ad optive parents for infants is large, e v e n for
in fa n ts w ith sp e c ia l needs.
If a d o p t i o n is o n e o f the only affordable and successful ways know n
to im p r o v e th e life c h an c es o f d isa d v an taged children appreciably, why
h a s it b e e n so ignored in c ongressional debate and presidential p r o p o s
a ls? W h y d o c u rren t ad op tion practices m ake it so difficult for would-
b e p a r e n ts a n d needy infants to m a tc h up? W hy are cross-racial
a d o p t i o n s so o fte n restricted or ev en ban n ed ? A ll these q u estio n s hav e
p o l it i c a l an d so c ial answers that would rake us far outside our territory.
B u t let it be said plainly: A n y o n e seeking an inexpen sive way to d o som e
g o o d for a n e x p a n d a b le n u m ber of the most d isa d v an tag e d infants
sh o u ld lo o k at ad op tion .
T h e to u g h q u estio n about ad o p tio n in volves the way the ad o p rio n
d e c is i o n is m a d e . G o v e r n m e n ts should not be able to force p aren ts to
g iv e up th eir c h ild ren for any ex c ep t the m ost c o m p e llin g of reasons.
R i g h t now, th e g o v e rn m e n t already has the power (varying hy state),
b a se d o n e v i d e n c e of neglect and abuse, w hich we d o no t a d v o c a t e e x
p a n d in g . In ste a d , we want to return to the state o f affairs that prevailed
u n til th e 1 9 6 0 s, when children born to single w o m en where m uch of
t h e p ro b le m o f c h ild neglect and abuse originates were m ore likely to
be g iv e n up for ad o p tio n at birth. T h is was, in our view, a better state
o f affairs t h a n we hav e now. S o m e rec o m m en d a tio n s for turning back
th is p a r ti c u l a r c lo c k are in C h a p t e r 22.
R e alism
A n in e x p e n s iv e , reliable m ethod o f raising IQ is no t av ailab le. T h e wish

t h a t it were is u n d erstan dable, and to pursue the d e v e lo p m e n t o f such
m e t h o d s is w orthw hile. But to think that the available repertoire o f s o
c ia l i n t e r v e n t io n s c a n do the jo b if only the n atio n sp end s m ore m oney
o n t h e m is illusory. N o one yet knows how to raise low IQ s su bstantially
o n a n a t io n a l level. We need to look elsewhere for solutions to the p r o b
le m s t h a t th e earlier chapters hav e described.
Chapter 18
The Leveling of American

Education
M ost people think that A m erican public education is in terrible shape, arid any
number o f allegations seem to confirm it. But a search o f the data does not re
veal that the typical A m erican school child in the past ivould have done any
better on tests of academ ic skills. A n A m erican youth with average IQ is p rob
ably better prepared academically now than ever before. The problem with
A m erican education is confined mainly to one group o f students, the cogni
tively gifted. A m ong the most gif ted stud en ts, S A T scores started falling in the
m id-1960s, and the verbal scores have not recovered since.
O n e reason is that disadvantaged students have been in and gifted stu
dents out" fo r thirty years. Even in the 1990s, only one-tenth o f 1 percent
of all the federal funds spent on elementary and secondary education go to
[rrograms fo r the gifted. Because success was m easured in terms o f how well
rhe average and below-average children perform ed, A m erican education w as
dumbed down: Textbooks were m ade easier, and requirem ents for cou rses,
homework, and graduation were relaxed. These m easu res m ay have w orked
as intended for the average and below-average students, but they let the gifted
get aw ay without ever developing their potential.
In thinking about policy, the first step is to realize where we are. In a u ni
versal education system , m any students will fall short o f basic academic co m
petence. M ost A m erican parents say they are already satisfied with their local
school. The average student has little incentive to w ork hard in high school.
G etting into m ost colleges is easy, and achievement in high school does not
pay o ff in higher w ages or better jobs for those who do not go to college. O n
a brighter note, realism also leads one to expect that m odest improvements in
the education o f average students will continue as they have throughout the
century except fo r the aberrational period from the m id -1 9 6 0 s to m id -1 9 7 0 s.
In trying to build on this natural improvement, the federal government
418 Living Together
should support greater flexibility for parents to send their children to schools
o f their choosing, whether through vouchers, tax credits, or choice within the
public schools. Federal scholarships should reward academ ic perform ance.
Some federal fun d s now so exclusively focused on the disadvantaged should
be reallocated to program s fo r the gifted.
We urge prim arily not a set o f new laws but a change o f heart within the
ranks o f e d u c ato rs. U ntil the latter half o f this century, it was taken for granted
that one o f the chief purposes o f education was to educate the gifted not be
cause they deserved it through their own merit but because, for better or w orse,
the future o f society w as so dependent on them. It was further understood that
this education m ust aim for more than technical facility. It must be an edu
cation that fosters wisdom and virtue through the ideal of the educated m a n ."
Little will change until educators once again embrace this aspect o f their vo
cation .
T
he e d u c a t io n o f th e youn g is so m eth in g that all h u m an societies are
c o m m i t t e d to do. T h e y c an do it well or poorly. M a n y billio ns of
dollars are alread y a v a ila b le for ed ucatio n in A m e ric a . C a n we spend
them m o re wisely a n d p r o d u c e better results? O ur corner o f the top ic is
how c o g n i t iv e ab ility fits into the picture.
It se e m s self-e v id e n t: E d u c a tio n is what intelligence is m ost obviously
good for. O n e ideal o f A m e r i c a n ed u catio n is to ed ucate every on e to his
or her p o te n t ia l . T h e stu d e n ts with the m ost capacity to absorb e d u c a
tion should g e t th e m o st o f it m ost in years, breadth, d epth , a n d c h a l
lenge. B u t w h a t sh o u ld be self-evident is not. For thirty years, IQ has
been ou t o f f a s h i o n a m o n g A m e r ic a n educators, and the idea that p e o
ple w ith th e m o st c a p a c ity to be educated should b e c o m e the m o st e d
ucated s o u n d s d a n g e ro u sly elitest.
It n e e d s to be said o p en ly: T h e people w ho m n the U n i t e d S t a t e s
create its jo b s, e x p a n d its technologies, cure its sick, teac h in its u n i
versities, a d m in i s t e r its cultural and political and legal in stitution s are
drawn m a in ly fro m a th in layer o f c ognitive ability at the top. ( R e
m em b er j u s t the to p 1 p e rc e n t o f the A m e r ic a n p o p u la tio n c on sists o f
2.5 m illio n p e o p le .) It m atters enorm ously not just that the p eop le in
the top few c e n tile s of ability get to college (alm ost all o f th em do, as
we d esc rib ed in C h a p t e r 1) or ev en that m any o f them go to elite c o l
leges but t h a t they are e d u c a te d well. O n e them e o f this c h a p te r is that
The Leveling o f American Education 419
since the 1960s, w hile a c o g n itiv e elite has b e c o m e increasingly segre-

gated from th e rest o f the country, the quality o f th e e d u c a tio n they r e
ceiv e has been d egrad ed . T h e y c o n tin u e to win p o sitio n s, m oney,
prestige, a n d su c c ess in c o m p e t itio n with their less gifted fellow citizens,
but they are less well e d u c ated in the ways th a t m a k e sm art c h ild re n
in to wise adults.
L e ttin g p e o p le d e v e lo p to their fullest p o te n t ia l is n o t the only i m
p o rta n t goal of public ed ucatio n . S in c e the f o u n d i n g of the republic,
thoughtful A m e r i c a n s h av e recognized th at an e d u c a te d citizenry is v i
tal to its survival. T h i s c h ap te r therefore e x a m in e s h o w well our c o u n
try fares in e d u c a tin g the average stu d en t n o t the o n e w ho is likely to
oc c u p y a p la ce a m o n g the co g n itiv e elite but the o n e m ost r e p re se n ta
tive o f the typical A m e r ic a n . W e find that the a v e ra g e A m e r i c a n y o u n g
ster is probably d o i n g better o n tests of a c a d e m ic skills t h a n ever before.
W e will try to u n d erstan d why a sense o f crisis n e v e rth e le ss surrounds
A m e r i c a n e d u c a t io n d espite this u n ex p ec ted goo d news.
W e begin with q u a n tita tiv e e v id e n c e that show s th e general o u tlin e
of th ese trends an d their c o n n e c tio n to e ac h other. T h e n we sw itch to
o b serv atio n s o f th e kind that d o not lend th e m s e lv e s to survey results
or regression e q u a tio n s but that we believe to be justified by everyday
ex p erien ce in our sc h o o ls and colleges.
T R E N D S IN E D U C A T IO N I: T H E A V E R A G E S T U D E N T
A few years ago, the Wall Street Journ al d e v o te d its o p -e d page to a r e

p ro d u c tio n of an e x a m in a tio n ad m inistered by Jersey C i t y H igh S c h o o l
in 1 8 8 5 .1 It con sisted o f q u estio n s such as th e follow ing:
Fin d the p ro d u c t o f 3 + 4x + 5x2 - 6.C an d 4 - 5x - 6 x J .

W rite a s e n te n c e c o n ta in in g a n o u n used as a n attribute, a v erb in
rhe perfect te n se p o ten tial m ood , an d a p ro p er ad jec tiv e.
N a m e three e v e n ts o f 1777. W h i c h was the m ost im p o rta n t and w h y ?
T h e test was n o t for h igh sch ool grad u ation ( w h ic h would be im p r e s

sive e n o u g h ) but for admission to Jersey C it y H ig h S c h o o l . Fifteen-year-
olds were sup p o sed to kno w the answers to these q u e stio n s. O f c o u rse,
n o t m any p eo p le w en t to h igh sch ool in 1885. But c o u l d e v e n the c r e a m
o f the 15-year-olds in Jersey C i t y s m iddle sc h o o ls p a s s th a t e x am to d a y ?
It seem s unlikely.
420 Living Together
B its o f n a t i o n a l m e m o r a b ilia like this reinforce an im p ression that is

n ea rly u n iv ersal in th is country: A m e r ic a n elem entary and secon d ary
e d u c a t io n used to he herter. T h e 1983 report by the D e p a rtm e n t of E d
u c a tio n , A N atio n at Risk, said so m ost famously, c o n c lu d in g th at we
h a v e , in effect, b e e n c o m m ittin g an act o f unthinking, unilateral e d u
c a t i o n a l d i s a r m a m e n t . 2 Its c h airm an c on clu ded flatly that for the first
t i m e in the h istory o f o ur country, the e d u c atio n al skills of o n e g e n e r a
t i o n will n o t surpass, will no t equal, will not ev en a p p ro ac h , those of
th e ir p a r e n ts. '
W e begin by affirm in g the c o n v e n tio n al wisdom in o n e respect: T h e
a c a d e m ic p e r fo r m a n c e of the average A m e r ic a n student looks awful at
first glance. C o n s i d e r illiteracy, for exam ple. S o m e auth o rities c laim
t h a t a third o f th e p o p u la tio n is functionally illiterate.4 N o on e really
k n o w s w h e n d o e s literacy begin? but no m atter where the precise
figure lies, th e p r o p o r tio n is large. A s o f 1990, 16 percent of the 17-year-
o ld s still in s c h o o l were below the level called in term ed iate in the N a
tio n a l A s s e s s m e n t of Ed u c ation al Progress ( N A E P ) read in g test in
effect, b elow th e th resh o ld for dealing with m oderately c o m p l e x writ
te n m a te ria l.1 T h e n o n e must consider that more than 2 0 p erc en t ot 17-
year-olds h ad alread y dropped out of sch ool and were no t part o f the
s a m p le / ' b rin g in g us som ew here a b ove 20 percent o f the p o p u la tio n who
c a n n o t use r e a d in g as a flexible tool of daily life.
T h e r e is a p ro fu sio n ot horror stories in other subjects. Fewer than
o n e in th ree A m e r i c a n 17-year-olds in a nation ally rep resen ta tiv e s a m
p le could p la c e th e C i v i l W ar w ithin the correct half-century ot its a c
tual o c c u r r e n c e .7 Few er than 6 0 p ercent of A m e r ic a n 17-year-olds could
correctly a n s w e r the item, A hockey team won five ot its 20 g am es.
W h a t percenr o f the gam es did it win? *1 M ore than 60 percen t ot adults
in their early tw en ties c a n n o t synthesize the m ain arg u m en t ot a n e w s
p a p e r artic le.9 Forty-four percenr of adult A m e ric a n s c a n n o t u n d erstan d
h e lp w a n t e d a d s well en o u gh to m atch their qualification s w ith the
j o b req uirem ents. Tw enty-tw o percen t c a n n o t address a letter well
e n o u g h to m a k e sure the p ost office can deliver it.10
C ritic s o f A m e r i c a n ed u catio n also point to in tern ation al c o m p a r
isons. B e tw e e n th e early 1960s and the end o f the 1980s, six m a jo r in
te r n a tio n a l stu d ie s c o m p a re d m a th e m a tic a l c o m p e te n c e , sc ie n ce
k n o w le d g e , or b o th , across coun tries.1" 1T h e N a tio n a l C e n t e r for E d u
c a t i o n S t a t i s t i c s has c o n v e n ie n tly assem bled all o f the results for rhe
first five stu d ies in a series o f twenty-two tables show ing the U n i t e d
The Leveling of Am erican Education 421
S t a t e s ran kin g tor each scale. T h e results fo r rhe industrialized c o u n

tries are easily sum m arized: In se v e n of t h e tw en ty -tw o tables, th e
U n i t e d S t a t e s is at the very b o tto m ; in e i g h t o t h e r s , within tw o c o u n
tries of the b o tto m ; in four of the r e m a in in g s e v e n , in the b o tto m h a l f . 1^
T h e m ost recent study, c o n d u c ted in 1991, f o u n d t h a t the U n ite d S t a t e s
co n tin u ed to rank near the b o tto m o n every te s t o f ev ery age grou p for
the m ath tests a n d near the m iddle o n the s c i e n c e t e s t s . "
In tern atio n al c o m p a riso n s n eed to he in t e r p r e t e d cautiously.11-11 B u t
rhe m ost c o m m o n d etense for A m e r i c a s p o o r s h o w i n g is losing c r e d i
bility. For years, e d u c ato rs ex cused A m e r i c a s p e r fo r m a n c e as the p ric e
A m e ric a pays for retaining such a high p r o p o r t i o n o f its students in to
high school. But J a p a n has had as h igh a r e t e n t i o n rate for years, a n d
recently m any E u ro p ea n n ation s, in c lu d in g s o m e th a t c o n tin u e to
ou fscore us on rhe in tern atio n al tests, h a v e c a u g h t u p as w ell.11
T h e picture is surely depressing. But as we l o o k b a c k to the idealized
A m e r i c a of the earlier parr of the century, c a n we c a t c h sight o f A m e r
ican sc h o o l c h ild ren who, on average, w ould h a v e d o n e any b etter o n
such m easures th a n the youngsters o f tod ay ? A g ro w in g n u m b er ot e d
ucational researchers are arguing thar the a n s w e r is n o . " W ith q u a lifi
c atio n s thar the c h a p te r will e x p la in , we a s s o c i a t e o u rselves with t h e ir
findings. A ccording to every longitudinal m easure that uie have been able to
find, there is no evidence that the (rreparation o f the average American youth
is worse in the 1990s than it has ever been. C o n s i d e r a b l e e v id e n c e su ggests
thar, on the contrary, ed u c atio n for the a v e r a g e y o u th has im p ro v e d
steadily th ro u gh o u t the tw entieth century e x c e p t for a period o f d e c lin e
in the late 1960s an d early 1970s (w h ic h ju s tifie d to som e d egree th e
a larm in g c o n c lu sio n s o f the early 1 9 80s) hut f r o m w h ic h the e d u c a tio n a l
system has already fully recovered. H o w c a n w e g e t away w ith rh e se
state m e n ts that se e m so contrary to w h a t e v e r y o n e k n o w s? W e do it by
m ean s of th at in n o c u o u s word, a v e r a g e .
D uring the first half o f the tw en tieth century, e d u c a t i o n for th e a v e r a g e

A m e r ic a n y o u n g p erson im proved steadily, p a rtly b e c a u se the a v e ra g e
A m e r ic a n y o u n g person sp en t m ore tim e in s c h o o l th an p reviou sly
( C h a p t e r 6 ). Bur m u c h other e v id e n c e , m a r s h a l e d c o n v in c in g ly by
e c o n o m ist J o h n B ish o p , in dicates a steady, l o n g - t e r m im p r o v e m e n t in
what B ish o p c alls general in tellec tu al a c h i e v e m e n t that e x t e n d e d
from the earliest d a ta at the turn o f th e c e n tu r y in to the 1 9 6 0 s.1' E v e n
if we d isc o u n t s o m e o f these results as r e fle c tio n s o f the Flynn e ffe c t,1181
422 Living Together
it is im p o ssib le to interpret the d ata from 1900 to 1950 as sh o w in g a n y

th in g o th e r t h a n so m e im provem ent. T h e n in rhe m id -1 9 6 0 s began a
p eriod o f d e c lin e , as m anifested most n o tab ly by the fall in S A T scores.
M a n y p e o p l e are u n d er the im pression that the decline was d eep and
p e r m a n e n t for the entire pop ulatio n of students. In reality, the d eclin e
for the average stu d e n t was m od est an d recovery was quick. W e know
this first th r o u g h th e N A E P , begun in 1969, w hich we discussed with
regard to e t h n i c d ifferences in C h a p t e r 1 3 . " 9' W h e n the first N A E P tests
were g iv en , the S A T score decline was in its fifth year and would c o n
tin u e for m o s t o f th e next d ecade. T h e S A T is generally for a p o p u la
tion c o n c e n t r a t e d at the upper end o f the c og n itiv e ability distribution,
w hereas the N A E P is for a nation ally rep resentativ e sam ple. W h ile the
scores for th e p o p u la tio n taking the S A T were still declinin g, the tre n d
lines o f th e N A E P results were flat. T h e differences b etw een the earli
est N A E P sc o res in reading, science, a n d m ath (w hich d ate from 1969
to 1973, d e p e n d i n g on the test) and th e scores in 1990 are a m atte r of
a few p o i n t s a n d sm all fractions o f a stan dard deviatio n, and scores o f
ten w ent up rath er than down ov er th a t p erio d.1201
S A T scores h a d started d eclinin g in 1964, but the N A E P goes back
only to 1969. T o reach back further for nation ally rep resentativ e data,
we turn first to five alm ost com pletely unpublicized studies, k n o w n c o l
lectively as th e n atio n al norm studies, c on d u cted by the Ed u c ation al
T e stin g S e r v i c e ( E T S ) in 1955, 1960, 1966, 1974, and 1983. In these
tests, a sh o rt v e rsio n o f the S A T (the Prelim inary S c h o la stic A p titu d e
Test, or P S A T ) w as adm inistered to a n ation ally rep resentativ e sam p le
o f A m e r i c a n h igh sc h o o l juniors. T h e results are summarized in the table
below, ad ju ste d so as to represent the m e a n score that all A m e r i c a n ju-
W h a t S A T S c o r e D e c lin e ? T h e R e s u lts o f th e N a tio n a l

N o rm S tu d ie s, 1 9 5 5 - 1 9 8 3
Year Verbal M e a n M ath M ean

1955 348 417
1960 374 410
1966 383 395
1974 368 402
1983 376 411
Sources: C o le 1955; C handler and Sch rad er 1966; Katz and others 1970;
Jack so n and Sch rad er 1976; Braun, C en tra, and King 1987.
The Leveling of American Education 42.3
niors would h a v e received tin the S A T h a d they stayed in sc h o o l for

their sen ior years and had they taken th e S A T .
T h e s e results say that A m e r ic a n e l e v e n t h g rad ers as o f 1983 were, as
a whole, roughly as well prepared in b o th v e r b a l an d m a th skills as they
had been w h en the college-boun d S A T s c o r e s were at their p eak in
1963, and n o tic e a b ly stronger in their v e r b a l skills th a n they had b e e n
in the first n o rm study in 1955. T h e d e c l i n e in verbal scores b etw een
the 1966 and 19 74 tests was 15 p o in ts o n l y a b o u t .14 standard d e v i a
tion. A b o u t half of that had b een re c o v e r e d by the 1983 test.11'
A third source is the Iowa T est of E d u c a t i o n a l D e v e lo p m e n t ( I T E D ) ,
a w ell-validated test, equ ated for stab ility f r o m year to year, th at h as
been ad m in istered to virtually a 100 p e r c e n t sam p le of Iowas h igh
sc h o o l stu d en ts for fifty years. W h a t m ay o n e learn from rural, w h ite
Iowa? For e x a m in i n g trends in e d u c a tio n a l o u t c o m e s over time, q u ite a
bit. Iow as sa m p le o f students provides s o c i o e c o n o m i c va rian ce e v e n
Iowa has sin gle-p a ren t families and w elfare recipients. Paradoxically,
Io w as atypical racial h o m o g en eity (th e p o p u l a t i o n was more t h a n 97
percent n o n - L a t i n o white throughout th e p e rio d we are d iscussin g) is
an a d v a n ta g e for a longitudinal analysis by sid e s te p p in g the difficulties
of analyzing trends for p op ulatio ns that a re c h a n g i n g in their e t h n i c
co m p o sitio n . In e x a m in in g Iow as test s c o r e s o v e r time, we may n o r be
able to m ak e j u d g m e n ts ab out how the e d u c a t i o n o f m inorities h a s
c h an g ed bur we h a v e a g oo d view o f w h at h a p p e n e d ov er the last s e v
eral d e c ad e s for the white population.
T est scores for high sc h o o l stu d en ts in I o w a in creased from the early
1940s to the m id -1 9 6 0 s, dropped sharply f r o m 1966 to 1978, but th e n
rebounded, as sh o w n in the figure below. W e show the n in th -g ra d e
scores, w hich h a v e been least affected by c h a n g e s in drop out rates d u r
ing the last fifty years. T h e y show a s t e e p rise th ro u gh 1965 a n d an
equally steep rise after 1977, reaching new h e i g h t s from 1983 o n w a rd .1" 1
T h e im p ro v e m e n t h as been su b sta n tia l o n t h e order of h alf a s ta n d a rd
d e v iatio n sin ce the m id -19 70s, and a b o u t .2 stan d a rd d eviatio n a b o v e
the previou s h ig h in 1965. T h e increase o f 5 .3 p o i n ts from 1942 to 1992
may be interpreted as ap p ro ac h in g o n e s t a n d a r d d eviatio n .
E v id en c e from other, in d ep en d en t s o u r c e s is c o n s is te n t with the story
told by the n a tio n a l n o rm studies and the I o w a d ata. P ro ject T A L E N T ,
rhe huge study o f high school stu d ents u n d e r t a k e n in 1960, read m in is-
tered its read in g c o m p re h e n sio n test in 1 9 7 0 to a n o th e r sam p le a n d
found that a n a tio n a lly rep resentative s a m p l e o f e l e v e n th graders h a d
424 Living Together
A h a lf- c e n t u r y o f Io w a te sts: Im p ro v e m e n t as th e n o rm ,
th e slu m p a s a tw elv e-y ear ab erratio n
C o m p o site score o f Io w a 9th-graders

o n the Iow a T est o f B a sic S k ills
16-
15-
14-
13-
12-
11 -
10 n T T
1942 1952 1962 1972 1982 1992
Source : Iowa T estin g Program, University of Iowa.
gained sligh tly o v e r its counterpart o f 1960, during the sam e d e c a d e that
saw the ste e p e st d eclin e in the SA T . O t h e r data o n state tests in Vir-
ginia, N e w York, T exa s, and C alifo rnia, summarized by the C o n g r e s
sional B u d g e t O ffic e in its study o f trends in ed u catio n al a c h ie v e m e n t,
c a n n o t m a t c h the tim e range o f the Iowa or S A T norm d ata, but, w ithin
their lim its, they are generally consistent with the picture we h av e
s k e tc h e d .21 E v e n the in ternational assessm ents are co n sisten t. T h e
U n i t e d S t a t e s h ad so m e o f its worst results in the first in tern atio n al as
sessm en t, c o n d u c t e d in the early to m id -1960 s w hen A m e r i c a n S A T
scores were n e a r their p e ak .24 S in c e then, the nation al A m e r i c a n a v e r
ages h a v e b e e n , o n balan ce, rising and the deficit in in tern ation al c o m
parisons sh rin k in g.
T a k e n as a w h o le, the d ata from representative sam p les o f h igh sc h o o l
stud ents d e sc r ib e a n A m e r ic a n e d u c atio n al system that was probably
im p ro v in g fro m the b eginning o f the century into the m id -1 9 6 0 s, u n
derw ent a d e c l i n e in to the m id -1970 s steep or shallow, d e p e n d in g on
the stu d y a n d rebound ed thereafter. Con servatively, av erage high
school s t u d e n t s s e e m to be as well prepared in m ath and verbal skills as
The Leveling of American Education 425
they were in rhe 1950s. T h e y may be herrer prepared th a n they h a v e

ever been. If U . S . a c a d e m ic skills are d e f i c i e n t in c om p a riso n with o t h e r
nations, they h a v e b een c o m p a rativ ely so fo r a lon g time and are p r o b
ably better th an they were.
T R E N D S IN E D U C A T IO N II: C O L L E G E S T U D E N T S
H a v in g q u e stio n e d the widespread b e lie f t h a t h ig h school ed u c atio n t o

day is worse on av erag e th an it used to be, w e now reverse course a n d
offer som e reaso ns for thinking that it h a s g o t t e n worse for one sp ecific
group o f stu d ents: the pool of youths in th e t o p 10 to 20 percent o f the
c ognitive ability distribution who are p r im e c o lle g e material. To m a k e
this case, we will focus on the b e s t- k n o w n e d u c a tio n a l trend, the d e
cline in S A T scores. Visually, the story is to ld by what must be the m o st
frequently published trendlines in A m e r i c a n ed ucatio n al circles, as
show n below.1 1
T h e steep d rop from 1963 to 1980 is n o m i n o r statistical fluctuation.
T ak en at face value, it tells o f an e x t r a o r d in a r il y large downward shift
in a c a d e m ic a p titu d e alm ost half a s t a n d a r d d ev iatio n o n the V erbal,
F o rty -o n e y e a rs o f S A T s c o r e s
N ational m ean S A T scores

5 25 -
The Great D ecline,
1963 - 1 9 8 0
400 ---- t--------- 1---------1--------- ---------- 1---------- 1---------i i------

1955 I960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990
Sourcc: T h e C ollege Board. Scores for 1 9 5 2 -1 9 6 9 are b ase d o n nil resrs administered during
rhe year; 1970-1993 on the most recent test take n by sen io rs.
426 Living Together
a lm o st a third o f a standard d ev iatio n on the M a th .121,1 A n d yet we hav e

ju s t fin ish e d d e m o n stra tin g that this large ch an ge is not reflected in the
ag g re g a t e n a t io n a l d ata for h igh school students. W h i c h stu d ents, then,
a c c o u n t for the S A T decline? W e try to answer that question in the n e x t
few p aragra p h s, as we work our way through the most c o m m o n e x p la
n a t i o n o f the d ec lin e. T o an tic ip ate our conclu sion, rhe stan dard e x
p l a n a t i o n d o es n o t stan d up to the data. W e are left with c o m p e llin g
e v i d e n c e o f a g e n u in e decline in the in tellectual resources of our b rig h t
e st youngsters.
T h e m o st fam ilia r exp la n atio n o f the great d ecline is that the S A T
w as d e m o c r a tiz e d during the 1960s and 1970s. T h e pool o f p e o p le ta k
in g the test e x p a n d e d dramatically, it is said, bringing in stu d en ts from
d is a d v a n ta g e d b ackgro un d s who never used to con sid er go in g to c o l
lege. T h i s was a g oo d thing, people agree, but it also m e a n t th a t test
scores w e n t d o w n a natural con seq u en c e of breaking d ow n the old
elites. T h e real problem is not falling S A T scores but the inferior e d u
c a t i o n for the d isa d v an tag ed that leads them to hav e lower test scores,
a c c o r d in g to the stan dard a c c o u n t / 7
T h i s c o m m o n view is m istaken. T o m ake this case requires d elv in g
in t o the details o f the S A T and its p o p u la tio n .8 To summarize a c o m p le x
story: D u r i n g the 1950s and into the early 1960s, the S A T p ool e x p a n d e d
d ram atica lly , but scores rem ain ed steady. In the m id -1960s, scores
s ta rte d to d e c lin e , hut, by then, m any state universities had b e c o m e less
s e l e c t iv e in their adm issions process, often dropping the req uirem en t
th a t stu d e n ts take S A T s, and, as a result, m any of the students in the m id
d le level o f the p o o l who formerly took the S A T stopped d o in g sex F o
c u s in g o n the w h ites raking the S A T (thereby p utting aside the effects
o f the c h a n g i n g e th n ic co m po sition o f the p ool), we find that throughout
m ost oj the white S A T score decline, the white S A T pool w as shrinking, not
expanding. W e surm ise that the white pop ulatio n o f test takers during
th is period was probably g etting more exclusive soc io ec o n o m ica lly , not
less. It is virtually im possible that it was b ec om in g m ore dem o cratized in
a n y s o c i o e c o n o m i c sense.
A f t e r 1976, w h e n detailed background data on white test takers b e
c o m e a v a ila b le , the evidence is quite explicit. A lth o u g h rhe size of the
p o o l o n c e a g a in b e g a n to e x p a n d during the 1980s, neither p a re n ta l in
c o m e n o r p a re n ta l ed u c atio n o f the white test takers c h a n g e d .|2)| A fter
fa c to r in g in the effects o f c h a n g e s in the gender o f the pool an d c h a n g e s
in the difficulty o f the S A T , we con c lu d e th at the aggregate real d ec lin e
from 1963 to 1976 a m o n g whites t a k i n g t h e S A T was o n the order o f

thirty-four to forty-four points on the V e r b a l a n d fifteen to twenty-five
points on rhe M a th . From 1976 to 1 9 9 3 , t h e real white losses were n o
more than a few ad d itio n a l p o in ts o n th e V e r b a l. O n the M ath, w h ite
scores im proved ab o u t three or four p o i n t s in real terms after c h a n g e s
in the pool are tak en in to ac c o u n t. O r in o t h e r words, when every th in g
is considered, there is reason to c o n c l u d e t h a t th e size of rhe drop in the
S A T as sh o w n in th at familiar, u n s o p h i s t i c a t e d graphic with which we
op en ed rhe d iscussio n is for p rac tic a l p u r p o s e s rhe sam e size and s h a p e
as the real c h a n g e in the a c a d e m ic p r e p a r a t i o n of white college-boun d
S A T test takers. N e i t h e r race, class, p a r e n t a l e d u c a tio n , c o m p o sitio n ot
rhe pool, n o r ge n d e r c a n exp la in this d e c l i n e of forty-odd points o n the
Verbal score and twenty-odd p o in ts o n th e M a t h for the white S A T -ta k -
ing p o p u la tio n d u rin g the 1960s an d 1 970s. F o r w hatever reasons, d u r
ing the 1960s A m e r i c a stopped d o i n g a s w e ll in tellectually by the core
of stu d ents w ho go to college.
R a th e r than d em o cratization , the d e c l i n e w as more probably due to
leveling d ow n, or m ediocritization: a d o w n w a r d trend of the ed u c atio n al
skills o f A m e r i c a s ac ad em ically m o st p r o m i s i n g youngsters toward th o se
o f the average stud ent. T h e net d ro p in v e r b a l skills was especially large,
m uch larger th an net drop in m ath skills. It a ffe c te d even those stud ents
with the h ighest levels ot c o g n itiv e ability.
D oes this d rop represent a fall in realized in te llig e n c e as well as a d rop
in the quality ot ac a d e m ic training? W e a s s u m e that it d oes to som e e x
tent but are u nw illing to try to e s t i m a t e h o w m u c h o f which. T h e S A T
score decline d o e s underscore a fru stra tin g , perverse reality: H o w e v e r
hard it may be to raise IQ a m o n g th e less ta l e n t e d with discrete in t e r
v entions, as d escribed in C h a p t e r 17, it m a y b e within the c apability of
an educat ional system probably w ith th e c o m p l i c i ty o f broader s o c ia l
trends to put a c eilin g on, or ac tu ally d a m p e n , the realized in telligen ce
of those with h igh p o te n t ia l.50
T R E N D S IN E D U C A T IO N III: T H E B R I G H T E S T O F T H E
B R IG H T E S T
O n e m ore p iec e o f the puzzle n e e d s to be p u t in place. T h e S A T p o p u

lation c o n stitu tes a sort o f broad elite, e n c o m p a s s i n g b u t not lim ited to
the upper q u artile o f the a n n u al n a t i o n a l p o o l of co g n itiv e ability. W h a t
has been h a p p e n i n g to the scores o f th e n a r r o w elite, the most g ifte d
428 Living Together
s t u d e n t s roughly, th ose with c o m b in e d scores o f 1400 an d m o re who

are m o st likely to fill the n a t io n s best graduate and professional schools?
T h e y h a v e g o n e d o w n in the Verbal test and up in the M ath .
T h e c a se for a d ro p in the Verbal scores am o n g the brightest c a n be
m a d e w ith o u t su btle analysis. In 1972, 17,560 college-bou n d seniors
sc o re d 7 0 0 o r h igh e r o n the SA T -V erbal. In 1993, only 10,407 scored
7 0 0 o r h i g h e r o n the V e rb a l a drop of 41 percent in the raw nu m b er
o f stu d e n ts sc o r in g 7 0 0 a n d over, despite the larger raw n u m b e r of stu
d e n t s ta k in g the test in 1993 c om pared to 1 9 7 2 . D ilu tio n o f the pool
( e v e n if it w ere as real as legend has it) could not a c c o u n t for sm aller
raw n u m b e r s of h ig h - sc o rin g students. But we may m ake rhe case m ore
sy stem atically.
T h e h ig h e r the ability level, the higher the proportion of stud ents
w h o ta k e the S A T . A t the 700 level and beyond, the p ro p o rtio n a p
p r o a c h e s 100 p e r c e n t a n d has probably been so since rhe early 1960s
(se e C h a p t e r 1). T h a t is, alm o st all 17-year-olds who would score ab ove
7 0 0 if they to o k the S A T d o in fact tak e the S A T at som e p o in t in their
h i g h sc h o o l career, e ith er because of their own am bitions, their p a r e n ts ,
o r th e u rgin g o f their teachers an d g u id an ce counselors. It is therefore
p o s s ib le to th in k ab o u t the students w h o score in the 700s on rhe S A T
a s a p ro p o r tio n of all 17-year-olds, n o t just as a prop ortion of the S A T
p o o l. W e c a n n o t carry th e story back further than 1967 but the results
are n o n e t h e l e s s p r o v o c a tiv e , as show n in the next figure.1 21
T h e g o o d new s is th at the m ath e m atic s score of the top e c h e lo n of
A m e r i c a n stu d e n ts has risen steeply sin ce hitting its low p o in t in 1981.
G i v e n all th e a t t e n t io n d evoted to problem s in A m e r ic a n e d u c atio n ,
th is fin d in g is w orth lingering over for a m om en t. In a period of just
tw e lv e years, from 1981 to 1993, the proportion of 17-year-olds scoring
o v e r 7 0 0 o n th e S A T - M a t h test increased by 143 percent. T h i s d ram atic
im p r o v e m e n t d u rin g the 1980s is n o t explainable by any artifact that
w e c a n identify, su c h as h av in g easier M ath S A T q u estio n s.1 1N o r is it
d u e to th e su p e rio r m a t h p erform an ce o f A sia n -A m e ric a n stu d en ts and
th e ir in cr e ase as a p r o p o r ti o n of the S A T p opulation. A sia n - A m e r i c a n s
are still su c h a sm a ll m ino rity (only 8 percent o f test takers in 1 992) that
t h e ir a c c o m p l i s h m e n t s c a n n o t a c c o u n t for m uch o f the n atio n al im
p r o v e m e n t . T h e up w ard b o u n c e in th e M a t h S A T from 1981 through
1 9 9 2 w as a roh u st 1 04 p e rc e n t a m o n g whites.141
N o w let us turn to th e less h ap p y story about the S A T -V erbal. T h e
p r o p o r t i o n o f stu d e n ts a t t a in in g 7 00 or higher on the S A T fell sharply
The Leveling o f A m erican Education 429
A m o n g th e m o st g ifted stu d e n ts, th e r e is good

n e w s a b o u t m ath , bad n ew s a b o u t v e rb a l
7 0 0 + scorers, as a percentage o f 17-year-olds
Nnurcv: T he C ollege Board.
trom 1967 ro rhe m id -1970s. Furtherm ore, S A T scores as o f 1967 h a d

been d rop p in g for four years before that, so we s ta rt from a sit u a t io n in
w hich the verb al skills ot A m e r i c a s m ost gifted stu d e n ts d ro p p ed p r e
cipitously trom the early 1960s to the early 1 9 7 0s. U n lik e th e M a t h
scores, however, the Verbal scores did no t r e b o u n d significantly. N o r
may one rake m u c h com fort from the c o m p a r a tiv e ly shallow' s lo p e of
rhe d eclin e as it is d ep ic ted in the figure. T h e p ro p o rtio n a l size of the
drop was large, from ab out eight stu d ents per 1 ,0 0 0 17-year-olds in 1 9 6 7
to three per 1,000 in 1993, a drop o f ab out 6 0 p e r c e n t . |b| T h e o th e r m a
jor source ot d a ta ab o u t highly talen ted stu d en ts, th e G r a d u a t e R e c o r d
E x a m in a tio n , p arallels the story for the stu d e n ts sc o rin g 7 00 or a b o v e
on the S A T . 1'61
A N E X P L A N A T IO N : D U M B IN G D O W N
H ow m ight these disp arate and so m e tim e s c o n tr a d ic to r y trends be tied

together?
O n e im p o rta n t part o f the story begins w ith t h e 1950s. W h y d i d n t
the scores fall, th o u g h the proportion ot stu d e n ts t a k in g the S A T w e n t
from a tew p e rc e n t to alm o st a third of the h i g h s c h o o l p o p u la t io n in
430 Living Together
little m o re t h a n a d e c a d e ? T h e answ er is t h a t the g row in g n u m b e rs o f

S A T takers were n o t stu d en ts w ith progressively low er levels o f acad e-
m ic ability b u t ab le stu d en ts w h o form erly did n o t go o n to c o lleg e or
w e n t to th e state university ( a n d d i d n t ta k e th e S A T ) a n d n o w were
b r o a d e n in g their horizons. T h i s w as th e p o s t - W o r l d W a r II era t h a t we
d esc rib ed in C h a p t e r 1, w h e n e d u c a tio n a l m erito cra cy was o n th e rise.
A s th e p a t h to the b e tte r c olleges b e g a n to o p e n for you n gsters o u tsid e
th e trad itio n al s o c i o e c o n o m i c elites, th e p o p u la tio n o f test takers grew
explosively. D u rin g this period, we c a n safely a ssu m e th a t th e p o o l
o p e n e d up to n e w s o c i o e c o n o m i c groups, b u t it oc c u rred w ith n o d ilu
tio n o f th e p o o l s a c a d e m ic p o te n tia l, b e c a u se the reserv oir o f a c a d e m ic
ability was deep. T h e n , as the 1 9 5 0 s en d e d , a n o th e r fac to r w ork ed to
su stain p erfo rm an c e: F r o m the Sputnik scare in 1 957 th ro u g h the early
1960s, A m e r i c a n e d u c a tio n was grip p ed by a g e t-to u g h reform m o v e
m e n t in w h ic h m a t h a n d the s c ie n c e s were em p h a size d a n d h ig h sc h o o ls
were raisin g stan dards. E d u c a tio n for the c o lleg e b o u n d p ro b a b ly im
p r o v e d d urin g this period.
Soften ed Stan d ard s
T h e n c a m e the m id -1 9 6 0 s a n d a d e c a d e o f d ecline. W h a t h a p p e n e d to
e d u c a tio n during this p e rio d h a s b e e n d esc rib ed by m a n y observers, a n d
we will n o t re c o u n t it h ere in d etail or p la c e b l a m e . 1371 T h e sim p le a n d
n o lo n g er c o n tr o v e rsia l truth is t h a t e d u c a tio n a l stan d a rd s d eclin ed ,
a lo n g w ith o th e r m o m e n to u s c h a n g e s in A m e r i c a n so c iety during t h a t
d ec ad e.
T h e e d u c a tio n a l c h a n g e is ep ito m ized by the title for this sectio n.
D u m b in g d o w n h a s b e c o m e a te rm o f art for th e p ro c ess by w h ic h the
vo c a b u la ry in a t e x t b o o k is d elib era tely sim plified. W e use it in a bro ad er
sense. O n e o f the c h ie f effects o f th e e d u c a tio n a l reform s o f th e 1960s
was to d u m b d o w n ele m e n ta ry a n d se c o n d a ry e d u c a tio n as a w hole,
m a k in g ju st a b o u t e v ery th in g easier for th e av erag e stu d e n t a n d easin g
th e d e m a n d s o n the gifted stu d ent.
T h e d u m b in g d o w n o f te x tb o o k s p e r m e a te d the t e x t b o o k m arket, as
p ublish ers a n d au th o rs stro ve to satisfy sc h o o l boards, w h ic h routinely
ap p lied read ab ility form ulas to th e b o o k s they w ere c o n sid e rin g .38
T h o m a s S o w e ll h a s d escribed a typ ical e x a m p le o f this p rocess, in w h ic h
th e words spectacle a n d adm ired were d eleted from a t e x t b o o k b e c au se
they were d e e m e d t o o difficult for h i g h s c h o o l stud ents. S o w e ll c o m
p ares su c h tim idity to th e M c G u f f e y s Readers, th e stap le te x t o f n i n e
The Leveling o f Am erican Education 431
t een th -c en tu ry ch ild ren in o n e - r o o m sc h o o lh o u se s, p o i n tin g o u t th a t

the Third Reader used w ords su c h as species, dialogue, heath, a n d be-
nighted in te n d e d for 8-year-olds.39
D u m b in g d o w n also o c c u rred in the h i g h s c h o o l s c olleg e track. M o re
e lectiv es were p erm itted , a n d the req u irem en ts for credits in scien ce,
m a th e m a tic s, a n d literature were relax ed . T h e r e were ex c e p tio n s, su c h
as th e h igh -q u a lity A d v a n c e d P l a c e m e n t courses offered in a m ino rity
o f h i g h sc h o o ls, ta k e n by a b o u t 1 p e r c e n t o f A m e r i c a n stu d e n ts.40 But
the b ro ad e r result was t h a t th e n u m b e r o f courses in th e core discip lin es
d ec lin ed . E d u c a tio n a l sp ecialists agree t h a t grades in flated it to o k less
work, a n d less h o m ew o rk , to e arn g o o d g rad es41 a n d t h a t less h o m e
work was d o n e . 1421
In this c o n te x t, it c o m e s as n o surprise t h a t S A T scores d e c lin e d e v e n
a m o n g th e d im in ish in g p ro p o rtio n o f h i g h s c h o o l seniors w h o to o k the
S A T d u rin g th e last h a l f o f th e 1960s. In d eed , it was n o t ju st stu d en ts
w h o to o k the S A T w ho suffered d u rin g th a t period. For a tim e, e d u c a
tio n a l p re p a r a tio n g o t worse for every on e, as reflected in th e Iow a d ata
a n d th e S A T n a t io n a l n o r m studies, n o t ju st for th e c o lle g e - b o u n d
tracks. B u t w hy was th e size o f th e drop sm aller a n d the r e b o u n d q u ic k er
a n d m o re c o m p le te for the p o p u la tio n as a w h o le t h a n for th e S A T p o p
u latio n ? A n d why, in the S A T p o p u la tio n , d o we ob serv e su c h a large
d ifferen ce b e tw e e n M a th , w here d e c lin e was sm a ll a n d th e recov ery s u b
stan tial, a n d Verbal, w here th e d e c lin e w as large w ith n o a p p a r e n t re
c overy at all? W h y were th ese c o n tr a d ic to ry tren d s m o st p r o n o u n c e d
for th e m o st gifted stud ents?
C o m p etin g A g en d as
O u r e x p la n a t i o n is c o n siste n t w ith th e facts as we u n d e rsta n d th e m , but

we sh o u ld em ph asize t h a t o ur e x p la n a t i o n is in terp retiv e as well. It goes
like this:
S i n c e th e late 1970s, th e p u b lic d issa tisfac tio n ab o u t the state o f
A m e r i c a n ele m e n ta ry a n d sec o n d ary e d u c a tio n h a s p r o d u c e d so m e
c h an g es. F ro m 1982 to 1 987, for e x a m p le , the p r o p o rtio n o f h i g h sc h o o l
g rad u ates w h o c o m p le te d a solid p ro g ra m o f four years o f E nglish , th ree
o f so cial sc ien ces, three o f th e h ard sc ien ces, a n d three o f m a t h m ore
t h a n d o u b le d .43 T h e av erag e course load s in all the a c a d e m ic areas w en t
up, m o st d ram atica lly in foreig n lan g u ag es b u t w ith sizable g ain s in s c i
e n c e a n d m a t h as w ell.1441 M a n y p e o p le w a n te d h ig h e r stan d a rd s in their
sc h ools, a n d th e sc h o o ls tried to resp ond .
432 Living Together
B u t o t h e r p ressures were (an d are) put on the schools, and they

c r e a te d a g u lf b e tw e e n w hat h ap p e n e d to courses in m a th e m a tic s and
t o c o u rses in every o t h e r ac ad em ic field. If a school, trying to h a v e higher
s ta n d a r d s in m a th , b e g a n to require a basic calculus course for its
c o l le g e p re p stu d e n ts, th ere were limits to the am o u n t of fudging that
c o u l d be d o n e w ith th e course conten t. S o m e h o w a core of analytic
te c h n i q u e s in c alc u lu s b a d to be part of the course. T h e re was n o way
a ro u n d it. F u rth e rm o re , there is a well-established standard for d e c i d
ing w h e th e r c a lc u lu s h a s been learned: C a n the stud ent solve calculus
p ro b le m s?
A n o t h e r featu re ot m a th skills at the high school level is th at they can
be in creased in d e p e n d e n t ot the stu d en ts d evelop m en t in oth e r in tel
le c tu a l skills. A stu d e n t m ay learn to m anipulate quadratic e q u atio n s
e v e n it h e is g iv e n n o t a glim m er ot how form al logic m ight relate to e x
p ository prose or to the use of ev id en ce in civics class. It is g oo d thar m ath
s c o re s h av e risen, but it rem ain s true that raising m ath stan d a rd s c a n be
routinized in ways t h a t c a n n o t be applied to the rest of the curriculum.
How, for e x a m p le , d o e s on e decide that the standards for a n English
literature c o u rse h a v e b e e n raised ? In the old days, it w o u ld n t have
b e e n seen a s a d ifficu lt question. S tan d ard s would be raised it the stu
d e n t s were req u ired to read a larger num ber of rhe G r e a t B o ok s (n o one
w ou ld h a v e h ad m u c h quarrel about what they were) or it srud ents were
req uired to write lo n g e r term papers, subject to stricter grad ing o n ar
g u m e n t a t i o n a n d d o c u m e n ta tio n . But since the late 1960s, such
stra ig h tfo rw a rd ways o f looking at standards in the h u m an ities, social
sc ie n c e s , a n d e v e n t h e physical scien ces were corrupted, in the sense
th a t rhe sta n d a r d s of e a c h discipline were subordinated to orher c o n
s id e ra tio n s. C h i e f a m o n g these other considerations were m ulticultur-
a l is m in rhe c u rric u lu m , the need to minimize racial differen ces in
p e r fo r m a n c e m easu res, and en th usiasm for fostering self-esteem in d e
p e n d e n t of p e r f o r m a n c e . 1' ' 1 W e assum e that a politically c o m p ro m ise d
c u rric u lu m is less likely to sh arp en the verbal skills o f stu d en ts t h a n one
t h a t h ew s to sta n d a r d s o f intellectual rigor an d quality. W e m ake these
o b s e r v a t i o n s w ith o u t b elittlin g the issues that h av e been at c e n te r stage
in A m e r i c a n s e c o n d a r y ed u c atio n . Bur if rhe qu estion is why the d o w n
h ill slide in v e r b a l skills has not reversed, here is on e possible e x p l a n a
t io n : T h e a g e n d a s t h a t h av e had the most influence o n curricula are
g e n e ra lly a n t a g o n i s t ic to traditional criteria o f rigor and e x c ellen c e.
T h e s e in flu e n c e s c o m e together when textb o ok s are selected by large
school systems. A sc h o o l hoard runs n o risk w h a t so e v e r o f angry h i s t o

rians p icketin g their offices. T h e y run g ra v e risks o f p ickets (and o f b e
ing voted out o f office) if a te x tb o o k o ffe n d s on e o f the m any in terest
groups th a t scrutinize possible c h o ic e s. Publishers kno w the m arket a n d
take steps to m a k e sure that their p r o d u c ts will sell.
T h e re are d o u b tless other culprits t h a t h e lp e x p la in the difference
betw een the recovery in m ath scores a n d t h e failure to recover in v e r
bal scores. T e le v isio n , rather t h a n th e p r in t e d page, b e c a m e the prim ary
m edium for g e ttin g new s and rec re a tio n at h o m e after mid-century, a n d
that process was also reaching full flow er in th e 1960s. T e le p h o n e s d is
placed letter w riting as the m ed iu m for lo n g - ra n g e c o m m u n ic a tio n .
S u c h trends are h ostile to trad itio n al d e fin itio n s o f e xcellen ce in v e r
bal skills. T h e sim p le hypothesis o f th is story is that these pressures e x
isted across rhe curriculum and in so c ie ty a t large b u t th a t m ath skills
were less su sc ep tib le to them. ( M a t h skills m ay in stead h av e b een g e t
ting a b o ost from the accessibility o f c o m p u te r s , calculators, and o th e r
high-tech gadgetry.) W h e n parents d e m a n d e d h igh e r standards, their
sch ools in trod u c ed higher stan dards in the m a t h curriculum that really
were higher, an d high e r stan dards in th e h u m a n i t ie s an d social s c ie n c e s
that really were not.
T h e sam e d y n a m ic s p rovide a h y p o th e s is for e x p la in in g why the r e
bound was m ore c o m p le te for the n a t i o n s overall stu d en t p o p u la tio n
th an for the S A T pop ulatio n. A te x tb o o k t h a t is d u m b e d down is in fac t
helpful to the m e d io c re student. A r e c e n t stud y o f six textbo oks ov er a
tw elve-year period d em o n strated th at they h a d indeed been sim plified,
and stud ents perform ed sign ificantly b e tte r o n the current, d u m b e d -
d ow n texts.4" S u b j e c t s that were tra d itio n a lly not included in the c u r
riculum for the lower end o f the d is tr ib u tio n for e x a m p le , exposure t o
serious literature h av e now been s o s im p lifie d as to be accessible to a l
m ost all.
T h e sam e dutnbed -d ow n te x tb o o k c a n q u ite easily h av e a d ep ressin g
effect o n the tale n te d stu d e n ts d e v e l o p m e n t . A n d while the t e x tb o o k s
were being sim plified, subjects that w o u ld p u sh the b est students to th eir
limits, such as th e classical languages, were all but drop p ed . O ffered th is
diluted c u rricu lu m , talen ted stu d e n ts d o n o t n ecessarily take the in i t i a
tive to stretch th em selv es. Plenty o f s t u d e n t s with h i g h IQ s will h a p p ily
c h oose to write ab o u t The Hubbit in ste a d o f Pride an d Prejudice for their
term paper if t h a t o p tio n is g iv en to th e m . Few o f e v e n the most b ril
liant youngsters tackle the A eneid o n th eir own.
434 Living Together
T h e N e g le c t o f the G ifted
A n o t h e r fa c to r in rhe declinin g capabilities o f A m e r i c a s brightest stu

d e n t s is t h a t th e d e c lin e occurred when, in policy circles, d isa d v an tag e d
s tu d e n ts were in and gifted students were ou t. W h e n the first sig
n ific a n t aid w e n t to secondary ed ucatio n at the end o f the Eisenhow er
years, it was for th e brightest students who might b ec o m e scien tists or
e n g in e e rs. In 1965, with the passage o f the Elem entary and S e c o n d a ry
E d u c a t i o n A c t o f 1965 ( E S E A ) , the funding priority turned 180 degrees,
an d it has r e m a in e d anchored in the new position ever since. A s of 1993,
the E S E A auth o rized forty-six programs with budgets that ad d ed up ro
$ 8 . 6 billion. M o s t o f these program s are specifically d esig n ated for stu
d e n t s in l o w - in c o m e areas an d students with special e d u c atio n al needs.
E v e n the p ro g ra m s that m ight apply to any sort of stu d en t ( im p r o v e
m e n t s in s c ie n c e an d m ath em atic s education, for e x a m p le ) often arc
w ord ed in w ays th a t give preference to students from low -incom e areas.
A n o t h e r set of p rogram s are for support services. A n d , finally, th ere are
p ro g ram s d e sig n a te d for the gifted and talented. T h is is the way th at the
$ 8 . 6 billion b u d g e t broke out for fiscal 1 993:14'1
P ro gram s for the disadv antaged 9 2 .2 %

P ro gram s t h a t m ight benefit any student 5.6%
S u p p o r t a n d ad m in istration o f E S E A programs 2.1 %
P ro g ram s for th e gifted 0.1 %
T h i s b re a k d o w n om its other federal programs with large budgets aim ed

at th e e d u c a t io n o f the d isa d v an tag ed more than $2 b illio n for H ead
S t a r t (fu n d e d by the D ep artm en t o f H ealth and H u m a n S e rv ice s, not
rhe D e p a r t m e n t o f Ed ucation), m ore than $3 billion for jo b training
p ro g ra m s, p lu s a scattering o f others.48
T h e o r e tic a lly , program s targeted at d isa d v an taged stud ents could also
he p ro g ra m s for the cognitively gifted a m o n g the so c io e c o n o m ic a lly d is
a d v a n t a g e d . B u t t h a t s not the w'ay it has worked. Disadvantaged as used
by th ree d e c a d e s of adm inistrators and school boards using E S E A funds
h a s c o n siste n tly m e a n t not just students who are poor or living in an in
ner-city n e i g h b o r h o o d but students who exhibit learning p roblem s. Pro
g r a m s for th e in tellectually gifted but otherwise d isa d v a n ta g e d attract
little su p p o rt an d , occasionally, hostility. A case in point is R an n e k e r
H i g h S c h o o l in W ash in g to n , D .C ., a special ac ad em ic h igh sc h o o l in
The Leveling u f American Education 435
the m iddle o f the black n o rth east s e c t i o n o f the city, estab lished by a
former su p e rin te n d e n t o f s c h o o ls w ith rhe sc h o o l b o a rd s re lu c ta n t per-
m ission in 1981.
T h e e sta b lish m e n t o f B a n n e k e r H i g h fo llo w ed a proud tradition in
W ash in g to n , w here on ce-elite D u n h a r H i g h had turned out m any o f the
n a t i o n s b lack leaders. But th r o u g h o u t th e 1980s, B a n n e k e r was under-
funded an d rep eated ly th rea ten ed w i t h c lo su re. B a n n ek er w as elitest,"
said an in fluen tial sch o o l board m e m b e r, a luxury for p aren ts w ho had
their ch ild ren in private school a n d c a n n o longer afford it and bring
th em back ro essentially a p riv ate s c h o o l at the public e x p e n s e .4y Ban-
n ek ers e lite st ad m ission s policy? A p p l i c a n t s had to write a n essay, be
interviewed, he in the top 18 p e r c e n t o f t h e ir class, and read and c o m
pute at grade level a broad c o n c e p t i o n o f e litist indeed. T h r o u g h o u t
it all, teachers c o m p e t e d to te a c h at B a n n e k e r an d stu d en ts c o m peted
to attend. B a n n e k e r placed large p r o p o r t i o n s o f its grad u ates in college
and had no sig n ifica n t p ro b lem s w i t h d isc ip lin e , drugs, c rim e, or the
oth e r ills of c o n te m p o rar y u rb a n s c h o o l s . w A n d yet, as we write, B a n
n eker c o n tin u e s to be barely t o le r a t e d by th e sch ool system. B a n n e k e rs
story has n u m ero u s c o u n terp a rts in o t h e r urb a n centers. F u n d s for the
e c o n o m ica lly an d socially d is a d v a n t a g e d h a v e m eant, for p rac tic a l pur
poses, funds c o n c e n tr a te d on th e c o g n i t i v e l y d isa d v an tag e d as well.
W h at are the im p lic atio n s for p o lic y ? T h e pros a n d cons of the specific
reforms o n the tab le n atio n al a c h i e v e m e n t tests, n a tio n a l curricula,
sch ool c h o ic e , vouchers, tu ition ta x c re d its, a p p ren ticesh ip programs,
restoration of the n e ig h b o r h o o d s c h o o l , m in im u m c o m p e t e n c y tests,
ability grou p ing, and a host o f o t h e r s in v o lv e nuts-and -b olts issues
th at are bette r argued out in d e ta il, o n t h e ir merits, in w orks that are
specifically d e v o te d to them . W e a l s o le a v e for other settin gs a d isc u s
sion of the e n o r m o u s p otential of n e w t e c h n o lo g ie s, from th e personal
c o m p u te r to laser disks to the in f o r m a t i o n superhighway, to en ric h and
bro ad en e d u c a tio n a l resources. H e r e we c o n c e n t r a t e on c e rta in strate
gic im p lic ation s a b o u t e d u c a tio n a l re fo r m t h a t flow from o u r a c c o u n t
first, regarding a tte m p ts to u p g rad e A m e r i c a n ed u c a tio n as a w hole, and
th e n regarding the ed u c atio n of the gifted.
436 Living Together
Realism A bo u t the L im its of G eneral Improvements in Education
W e b e g in w ith th e first and m ost widely accep ted c o n c lu sio n : T h e e x

te n t a n d q u ality o f learning for A m e ric a n students in general is low
lo w e r t h a n in m o s t other industrialized countries but also (it would
s e e m ) low by ba sic stan dards o f w hat a person o f ordinary ability o u g h t
to learn . B e fo re ju m p in g into any particular set o f solutions, however,
p o l ic y m a k e r s n e e d to be m ore realistic about what can be d o n e to im
p r o v e th e e d u c a t io n o f students in a h eterogeneous, n o n r o ta lita n a n
cou n try . S p e c ific a lly , critics o f A m e ric a n ed u c atio n must c o m e to term s
w ith th e reality th a t in a universal education system, many students will not
reach the level o f education that most people view as basic. C o n s id e r again
th e e x a m p l e o f fu n c tio n al illiteracy m en tio n ed earlier: that over 20 p e r
c e n t o f 17-year-olds are below the in term ediate reading level o n the
N A E P , m e a n i n g th at they are marginal readers or worse. T h i s is usually
c o n sid e re d a failure of A m e ric a n ed ucatio n, an d perhaps it is. Bur most
o f th e se n o n r e a d e r s c om e from the bottom of the c o g n itiv e ability d is
trib u tio n . H o w well should they be able to read after a proper e d u c atio n ,
g iv e n th e e c o n o m i c , technological, and political co n strain ts on any sys
te m o f m a ss e d u c a tio n ?
T h e U n i t e d S t a t e s has not yet com pleted the first half-century of
h u m a n history in w hich universal secondary ed u cation b e c a m e a goal.
It was n o t until 1963 that the dropout rate fell below 30 p e rc e n t of all
17-year-olds. A lr e a d y we hav e seen im proving p erform ance in a c a d e
m ic tests for the average stu d ent as ed ucatio n al o p p o rtu n ities have
sp r e a d a c ro ss th e pop u latio n. A t ab out the sam e time, e d u c ato rs and
e d u c a t i o n a l c ritic s stopped thinkin g hard or openly ab o u t va riatio n
in in te lle c tu a l abilities. It is time to reopen the issue. W h a t c o n stitu tes
e d u c a t i o n a l su c c e ss for persons at various points a lo n g the c o g n itiv e
ab ility d istr ib u tio n ? T h e aspirations of e d u c atio n al reformers sh ou ld
be a c c o m p a n i e d by a realistic an d system atic assessm en t o f where
th e r o o m for im p ro v e m e n t lies, taking the c og n itiv e d istribution in to
account.
S o m e c ritic s b la m e students who d o not work hard en o u g h , rather
t h a n s c h o o l s th a t fail to teach, for the sh ortco m in g s o f A m e r i c a n e d u
c a t i o n . O n e h e a rs repeatedly a b o u t students as c ou ch p otatoes. T h e a v
e r a g e A m e r i c a n stud ent, it is said, takes the easy way out c o m p a re d not
o n ly to the fab led J a p a n e s e but to children in countries such as N orw ay,
th e N e t h e r l a n d s , Ireland, and Italy. 1 T h e obvio us policy im p lic atio n is
T h e Leveling o f A m erican Education 43 7
to d o s o m e th in g to m ake stu d e n ts w ork h ard er. L e n g t h e n th e sch ool

year. L e n g th e n the sc h o o l day. R e q u ir e h o m e w o r k every n ight. T o u g h e n
the grad in g .1521 T h e proposals fill th e air. W e t h in k m an y o f th e m are
good ideas. Rut the closer one lo o k s a t th e r e a s o n s why stu d en ts d o no t
work harder, the less it seem s th a t th e y are t o b la m e .
First, m ost A m erican parents do not w ant d rastic increases in the acad e
mic work load. S o m e of the e v id e n c e fo r th is lies in q u a n tita tiv e survey
data. In H arold S t e v e n s o n s la n d m a r k c r o s s - n a t i o n a l study o f C h in e se ,
Jap an ese, an d A m e r i c a n ed u c a tio n , 91 p e r c e n t o f A m e r i c a n p aren ts said
their sch ool is d o in g a n e x c e lle n t o r go o d j o b , c o m p a r e d ro only half
that prop ortion o fT a i w a n e s e or J a p a n e s e p a r e n t s . I t has b ec o m e a tru
ism in survey research: A m e r i c a n s tell in te rv ie w e rs t h a t A m e r i c a n e d
ucation in general is g oin g to the d o g s , th e n in th e n e x t brea th give high
m arks to their child ren's ow n s c h o o l . 1541 In s u r v e y s, m an y A m e r i c a n p a r
ents are either a p ath e tic ab out s c h o o l o r h o stile tow ard m ore h om ew ork
and tougher g rad in g .'" In this c li m a t e , m o re d e m a n d i n g stan dards c a n
not easily be im p osed from a b o v e.
Rut if you live n ea r a public s c h o o l , you n e e d n o t search the t e c h n i
cal jou rn als to verify the point. V isit th e s c h o o l a n d talk to an y te a c h e r
ab o u t the last half-dozen p aren ts w h o h a v e c o m p l a i n e d t o him . For
every parent w h o visits the p rin c ip a l to tell h i m th a t Jo h n n y isnt g e t
ting en o u gh h o m e w o rk are several w h o v isit to c o m p l a i n J o h n n y is b e
ing overw orked. Parents who are u p se t a b o u t in flated grades se ld o m
m ak e a te a c h e r s life miserable. P a r e n t s w h o are u p set a b o u t their c h i l d s
low grade do.
P arents do w an t orderly c la ssr o o m s, n o w e a p o n s , n o v io le n c e , n o
drugs, a n d o th e r safeguards for th e ir c h i l d r e n t h a t m a n y schools, e s p e
cially in large cities, no longer p r o v i d e . T h e s e u rg e n t n eed s are fu elin g
m u ch o f the shift in to private s c h o o l s a n d p o litic a l b a ck in g for th e
sch ool c h o i c e m o v e m e n t. R ut the a v e r a g e p a r e n t seem s u n p rep ared
to su p port ge n u in e ly stiffer a c a d e m ic s ta n d a r d s.
A sec o n d p o in t is that the average A m eric an student has little ineenci-ve
to work harder than he already does in high school. E c o n o m is t J o h n B i s h o p
h as tak en the lead in m akin g th is c a s e , e m p h a s iz i n g tw o p o in ts.5,1 B i s h o p
first observes th a t a d e m a n d in g h i g h s c h o o l c u rric u lu m is n o t necessary
for ad m issio n to m o st colleges. F o r m o s t c o l l e g e - b o u n d stud ents, f i n d
ing the m o n e y is h ard er th an a m a s s i n g the n e c e s s a r y h igh sch o o l record.
A n d its their p aren ts w ho typically n e e d t o f in d th e money. W h y b o t h e r
to take to u g h courses? T h is is true e v e n o f t a l e n t e d stu d e n ts ap p lying to
438 Living Together
s e l e c t iv e s c h o o ls; only a h an dful o f sch o o ls at the .summit routinely turn

aw a y stu d e n ts w ith S A T s in the 1200s and up (see C h a p t e r 1). A stu
d e n t w h o tests reasonably well (he know s this by the time h e gets to
h i g h s c h o o l) a n d d o e sn t hav e his sights set on the likes of Yale d o es not
h a v e to be t o o careful about w hich courses to take as long as his grades
are d ec en t. O n l y youngsters who aspire to colleges that usually tak e stu
d e n ts with h i g h e r scores th an their own h av e a strong in cen tiv e to study
h a r d an d h o w e v e r c o m m o n this situation may seem at the sc h o o l a t
ten d ed by th e ch ild ren of most of our readers, it describes a m in u scu le
p ro p o rtio n o f the nation al high sch ool population.
B ish o p a lso sh ow s that a c h ie v e m e n t in high sch ool d oes no t pay off
in higher w a g e s or better jobs. M any em ployers assum e that the high
sc h o o l d i p l o m a n o longer m ean s m uch m ore th an that the stu d en t
w arm ed a se a t for twelve years. O th ers are willing to look at high sch ool
tran scrip ts as p art of the hiring process, but though sc h o o ls are legally
o b lig a te d to resp on d to requests for transcripts, hardly any tran scripts
e v e r reach the em ployer, and those that do usually arrive so late that
th ey are u seless.1171 U sin g the N L S Y , B ish op found that b etter test scores
in scien ce, la n g u a g e arts, and m ath were associated with lower wages
a n d e m p lo y m e n t am o n g young men in the first ten years after high
s c h o o l . ,h S t u d e n t s , like everybody else, respond to w h a ts in it for them .
T h e r e s close to no th in g in it for them in working hard in high school.
Ergo, they d o n o t work hard in high school.
H ow m ig h t policy changes rec o n n ect high school p erfo rm an c e with
payoffs after grad u ation ? For students nor c o n tin u in g ro c ollege, B ish op
r e c o m m e n d s a variety o f m easures to certify com p eten c ies, to m a k e tran
scrip ts u n d e rsta n d a b le and availab le to employers, and to build up d ata
b a n k s, n a t io n a l or regional (private, not federal), to en a b le you th s to
s e n d their c o m p e t e n c y profile to p oten tial em ployers.vl
S u c h p ro g ram s may work it em ployers ot high school g rad u ates had
a sh o rta g e ot c o m p e t e n t workers applying for jobs. S o m e p ilot p rojects
a re u nd erw ay th at should tell how m uch such data banks are n eed ed an d
u sed .60 But in th in k in g ab out linking up p erform an ce in high sch ool
w ith the jo b m arket, here is a dose o f realism: W h e n it c o m e s to p re
d ic tin g jo b p ro d u c tiv ity in m ost c o m m o n jobs, an em ployer who ro u
tinely trains n e w em ployees in specific jo b skills anyway h a s n t m uch
reaso n ro c a re ab ou t whether the ap p lic an t got an A or a C in high
sc h o o l E n g lish or, for that matter, how well rhe a p p lic a n t did in high
sc h o o l v o c a t io n a l courses, exc ep t perhaps as a rough m easu re o f how
The Leveling o f American Education 4 39
bright and c o n sc ie n tio u s the a p p l i c a n t is. O n the average, a n d assum

ing n o legal restriction s o n testing, a n e m p l o y e r c a n get a b e tte r idea of
how well a job a p p lic a n t will p erform in j o b training by g iv in g h im an
in ex p en siv e tw elve-m in u te in t e llig e n c e te st t h a n by a n y th in g th a t the
high sc h o o l c a n tell the e m p lo y er a b o u t the a p p lic a n ts a c a d e m ic
record.1*11 T h i s pu ts sharp limits o n h o w in terested em ployers will be
high sc h o o l perform ance.
A s far as colleges are c o n c e rn e d , w h a t in c e n t iv e d o they h a v e to raise
ad m ission s req uirem en ts if it m e a n s few er s tu d e n ts'1 During a n d just af
ter rhe baby b o o m years, private c o l l e g e s a d d e d m an y stu d en ts to their
rosters and now face an oversupply of p la c e s for a shrinkin g m arket. Few
prefer to g o out of business rather t h a n ta k e stu d en ts with m o d e st c re
dentials. Public universities m ak e t h e i r a d m is s i o n s policies in response
to p olitical pressures that generally p u s h t h e m tow ard more inclusive-
ness, not less. W h e n neither buyer n o r s e lle r profits from h ig h e r stan
dards, why would stan dards rise?
R ealism A b o u t H o w Federal R eform s W ill W ork in the A m erican

C on text
In ways that few p eop le want to a c k n o w l e d g e , A m e r i c a d o e s no t want

its sc h o o ls to take a large leap in w h a t they d e m a n d of youngsters. O ur
c o n c lu sio n is th at if parents, stu d e n ts, a n d e m p lo y e r s do not broad ly su p
port a sign ificantly m ore d e m a n d in g e d u c a t i o n a l system , its no t going
to hap p en . N o n e th e le s s , a variety o f s e n s i b l e reforms are on th e table
m ore hom ew ork, a longer sc h o o l year, a n d the like. W hy d o n t we at
least re c o m m e n d th at the federal g o v e r n m e n t m an d ate th ese good
things? O n this q uestio n , the e x p e r i e n c e of the 1 960 s and 1 9 7 0 s serves
as an o b je c t lesson for today.
E d u c atio n al reformers in the 1 9 6 0 s a n d 1970s were c o n fid e n t that
their ideas were go o d things to d o . T h e y w e re im p atie n t w ith the c o n
servatism o f local sc h o o l districts. T h e y tu rn e d to a resp on sive W h ite
H ou se, C o n g r e s s , a n d S u p r e m e C o u r t , a c h i e v e d m any o f th eir o b je c
tives, an d thereby c on tributed to a h is to r ic s h ift in A m e r i c a n ed u c atio n .
O n b a lan ce, the turn was for t h e w o rse a s far as a c a d e m ic e x c e lle n c e
was c o n c e rn e d , but that d o e sn t m e a n th e id ea s were bad in th em selv es.
Ideas su c h as m o re racial in te g ra tio n in t h e sc h o o ls, more a tt e n tio n to
the needs of d isa d v a n ta g e d stu d e n ts, a n d m o r e eq u itab le tre a tm e n t o f
stud ents in discip lin ary m atters d o n o t s e e m less obviously g o o d to us
440 Living Together
th a n ideals su c h as m ore h o m e w o r k an d a lon g er school year. It was not

th e core ideas t h a t were at fault ( in m o st in stan c e s) hut som e b a sic p ro b
lem s th at g o w ith re fo r m in g A m e r i c a n ed u c a tio n at a n a t i o n a l level.
W e c h arac terize the sit u a tio n as follows: S lo w im p ro v e m e n t seem s to
h a v e been a natu ral part o f tw e n t ie th - c e n tu r y A m e r ic a n e d u c a t i o n u n
til the 19 6 0 s. T h i s slow' i m p r o v e m e n t had great inertia, in the se n s e that
a slo w - m o v in g freight train h a s in ertia. It is very difficult for a n outside
fo rc e to a c c e le ra te the freight tr a in hut co m p a rativ ely easy fo r an o u t
side force to derail it. In the U n i t e d S ta te s , th e federal g o v e r n m e n t tends
to b e an o u tsid e force, m ore o fte n d e ra ilin g t h a n pushing a lo n g , for rea
so n s th a t are peculiarly A m e r i c a n .
In c o u n trie s su c h as F ran ce a n d G e r m a n y , with more h o m o g e n e o u s
p o p u la tio n s an d m ore a u t h o r it a r ia n an d un ap o lo getic ally e lite st e d u c a
tio n al trad itions, the n a t io n a l g o v e r n m e n t c a n get away w ith c e n tr a l
ized sc h o o l system s th a t e d u c a t e their brightest youth well. In the
U n i t e d S t a t e s , it c a n n o t. F ed eral sta n d a rd s, federal rules, a n d federal
curricula, were they to be e sta b lish e d , would inevitably be w atered down
an d e d u c a tio n a l goals w ould be c o m p r o m is e d with social an d p olitical
o n e s. T h e federal g o v e r n m e n t re sp o n d s to p u sh es from all sid e s a n d gets
eq ually n erv o u s ab o u t a ffirm in g the g e n iu s ot either H u ck Finn or
C h a r l e s Darw in. Powerful t e a c h e r s o rg a n iz atio n s will not to le ra t e c er
tific ation tests th at flunk large n u m b e rs o f teachers. O r g a n iz a tio n s that
represent: m ino rity gro u p s will n o t tolerate n a tio n a l e d u c a tio n a l s ta n
d ard s that c au se large n u m b e rs of m in o rity c h ild ren to flunk. T h e s e are
p olitic al facts of life that will n o t c h a n g e soo n , n o m atter w h o is in the
W h i t e H ou se.
W ith A m e r i c a s im m e n se d iv ersity and its tradition o f local control,
W a s h i n g t o n is the w ron g p la c e to look for e ith er energy or w isd o m on
e d u c a tio n a l reform. In our view, an y n atu ral im pu lse toward e d u c a tio n a l
im p r o v e m e n t will he best n o u rish e d by lettin g the internal fo r c e s rhe
m o r iv a t i o n s of p a re n ts for th eir c h ild r e n a n d teachers for a satisfy in g c a
reer h av e their head. W e will s ta te our r e c o m m e n d a tio n in broad
terms:
The federal governm ent should actively support programs that enable all
p a re n ts, not ju st affluent o n e s, to choose the school that their children attend.
C u r r e n t m o v e m e n t s to p ro v id e in c r e a se d p aren ta l choice in sc h o o l s are
a h op efu l sign, w h eth er it he c h o i c e w ith in the public s c h o o l system,
v o u c h e r s, or tu itio n tax cred its. W i th o u t b e in g any more sp ec ific than
th a t, we urge th at in creased p a r e n ta l c h o i c e e x te n d to p riv ate as well as
public sch ools, and to religious private sch ools as well as secular ones.
Will increased parental ch o ice help, g iv en the m odest academ ic goals
that m an y parents h av e for their children? T h e r e are reasons for think-
ing it will. First, the learning that goes on in a school depends on the
school e n v ir o n m e n t as well as on its curriculum. Here, the great m a
jority of p aren ts an d teachers stan d o n c o m m o n ground. Orderly class
rooms a n d well-enforced codes o f behavior d o no t need to be mandated
but sim ply p erm itted; parents, teachers, an d adm inistrators alike will see
to it, if th e c ontrol they on ce had over their sch ools is returned to them.
To hav e A m e r i c a s children, poor as well as rich, on ce again attending
safe, orderly sch ools would be no small a c h ie v e m e n t and would likely
foster m ore learning than the often c h a o tic public schools d o now.
G ifte d youngsters would also benefit by restoring local control. W h ile
m ost parents d o n o t want an authen tically tougher education for their
children, som e do, and they tend to be c o n c en trated am ong the parents
o f the brightest. Policy should m ake it as easy as possible for them to
m atch up with classes that satisfy their am bitions.
T o the e x te n t that the g ov ernm en t su cceeds in this first goal, the o t h
ers that we h av e in m ind becom e less im portant. But as long as the cur
rent situ atio n prevails, in which federal m oney and the conditions
surrounding ir play a m ajor role in sh a p in g public education, we rec
o m m e n d two o th e r measures:
A federal prize scholarship program . T h is is o n e instance in which a sp e
cific, federal p rogram could do som e goo d in restoring educational e x
cellence. A s the law stands, federal scholarships and loan assistance are
awarded alm o st exclusively on the basis o f financial need, leaving the
ad m in istratio n of standards to the c olleges that admit and teach the
students. T h a t program may c on tin u e as is, but C on gress should add a
secon d program , n o t c o n tin g en t o n fin an c ia l need hut awarded c o m
p etitively for ex am p le, a flat on e-tim e award of $ 2 0 ,0 0 0 to the 2 5 ,0 0 0
stud ents in the country earning the top scores on standardized tests o f
a c ad e m ic ac h ie v e m e n t, over and ab ove w h ate v e r scholarship assistance
the stu d en t was receiving from other sources. H ow much would su ch
A m e r i c a n S c h o l a r s (the C on gress m igh t call them ) cost? Five h u n
dred m illion d ollars a year an am ou n t eq u iva len t to a rounding error
in the n a tio n a l bu dget but one that would dram atically transform rhe
signal that rhe federal gov ern m en t send s ab o u t the value it places o n
ac a d e m ic e x c e lle n c e .1*21
Reallocate some portiori of existing elementary and secondary school fed
442 Living Together
eral aid aw ay from program s for the disadvantaged to programs for the gifted.
T h e o b je c t i v e is to m ake sure th at public sc h o o l system s h a v e roughly
th e s a m e c a p a b i li ty to provid e for students at the high en d o f th e d is
tribution a s they h a v e for h elpin g students at the low end. A collateral
p art o f this reform should be to rescind any federal reg u lation s or gran t
re q u ire m e n ts th a t m ight discourage local sch ool systems from e x p e r i
m e n t in g w ith o r su p po rtin g program s for the gifted. A t present, there is
a n o v e r w h e l m i n g tilt toward en riching the ed u c atio n of c h ild re n from
th e low e n d o f th e co gn itiv e ability distribution. W e prop ose m ore of a
b a la n c e ac ro ss th e c og n itiv e ability distribution.
R estoring the C o n c e p t o f the E d u cated M an
W h y sh o u ld th e federal g o v e rn m e n t shift m oney from p rogram s for the

d is a d v a n ta g e d to program s for the gifted, when we know th at a large
p o rtio n o f t h e gifted c om e from privileged families? W h y n o t ju st su p
port p ro g ra m s for the gifted who h ap p en to c om e from p o o r fam ilies as
well? In Part 1, we w en t to so m e lengths to describe the d a n g e rs of a c o g
nitive elite. A n d y e t here we call for steps th at could easily in crease rhe
seg reg atio n o f the gifted from everyone else. W o n t p rogram s for the
gifted fu rth er iso late them ?
T h e an sw ers to su c h q uestio n s hav e n o th in g to do with social justice
but m u c h to d o w ith the welfare of the nation , in cluding rhe u ltim ate
welfare o f rhe d isa d v an tag ed .
T h e first p o in t e c h o e s a c o n tin u in g th em e o f this book: T o he in te l
lectually gifted is indeed a gift. N o h o d y "d eserv es it. T h e m o n etary and
social rew ards th at accrue to being intellectually gifted are grow ing all
the tim e, for re a so n s that are easily c o n d e m n e d as being unfair. N e v e r
m ind , we a re saying. T h e s e gifted youngsters are im portant n o t because
they are m o r e v irtuous or d eserving but because our so c ie ty s future d e
pends o n th e m . T h e one clear and endurin g failure o f c o n te m p o rar y
A m e r i c a n e d u c a t i o n is at the high end of the co gn itiv e ability d istrib
ution.
Ideally w e w ould like ro see the most gifted child ren rec eiv e a d e
m a n d in g e d u c a t i o n and attend sch ool side by side with a w ide ran g e o f
ch ild ren , le a r n in g firsthand h o w the rest o f the w'orld lives. R ut that o p
tio n is n o m o r e a v a ila b le now th an it was during the a tte m p ts to force
the racial i n t e g r a t i o n o f urban sc h o o ls in the 1960s and 1970s. T h e n a
tio n s e le m e n t a r y a n d second ary schools are highly segregated by s o
c io e c o n o m ic status, they will tend to becom e m ore so in the future, and
The Leveling oj A m erican Education 443
rhe forces p u sh in g these rrends are so p o w erfu l, s te m m in g from the

deeply rooted c au se s that we described in P a rt 1, that they c a n be re
versed only by a level of srare c o e rc io n rhat w o u ld be a cure far deadlier
th an rhe disease.
M o st gifted stu d e n ts are g o in g to grow up .segregated from the rest o f
society no m a tte r whar. T h e y will th en g o t o th e elite c o lle g e s no m a t
ter what, m o v e in to successful careers n o m a t t e r what, and even tu ally
lead the in stitu tio n s of this country n o m a t t e r w h at. T h e re fo re , rhe n a
tion had b etier d o its d a m n e d e st ro m a k e t h e m as wise as it c a n . If they
c a n n o t grow up k n o w in g how the rest o f t h e w orld lives, th ey c an at
least grow up with a proper hum ility a b o u t th eir cap ac ity to reinvent
the world de n o v o an d thoughtfully aw are o f th eir in tellec tu al, cultural,
and eth ica l heritage. T h e y should be ta u g h t th e ir resp on sibilities as c it
izens of a bro ad er society.
T h e e d u c a tio n a l deficit th a t worries us is sym bolized by th e drop in
verbal skills o n the S A T . W h a t we call v e r b a l skills e n c o m p a ss, am o n g
oth e r things, th e ability to think about d iffic u lt problem s: to analyze,
pick apart, d isagg reg ate, synthesize, and u ltim a te ly to und erstan d. It has
seldom been m ore ap p aren t how im p o r ta n t it is that the p e o p le who
count in business, law, politics, and our u n iv e rsitie s know h o w to think
about their p ro b lem s in c o m p le x , rigorous m o d e s a n d how im p o rta n t it
is that they bring to their th in k in g d e p t h o f ju d g m e n t and, in the la n
guage of A risto tle, the habit of virtue. T h i s kind of w isd o m for wis
d o m is w hat we need m ore ot does not c o m e naturally w ith a h igh IQ.
It has to be a d d e d th ro u gh e d u c atio n , a n d e d u c a t i o n o f a p articu lar kind.
W e are not talk in g ab out generalized h i g h e r standards. R ath er, we are
th in kin g of th e classical idea of the e d u c a t e d m a n w h ich we will
a m en d to e d u c a te d p e rso n in w h ich to be e d u c a te d m e a n t first of all
to m aster a c ore body of m aterial and skills. T h e idea is n o t wedded to
the specific c u rricu lu m rhat m ad e an e d u c a t e d m a n in the n in e te e n th -
century British public sch ool or in rhe G r e e k lyceum . But it is wedded
to rhe idea of c e rta in high in tellectual g o a ls. For ex a m p le , to be an e d
ucated p erson m e a n t being ab le to write c o m p e t e n t l y a n d argue lo g i
cally. T h e re fo re , c h ild ren were taught th e in n er logic of g r a m m a r and
syntax b e c au se th at kind of a tt e n tio n to d e t a i l w as believed t o carry over
to greater p rec isio n of thinkin g. T h e y were e x p e c t e d to learn A r isto tle s
c a ta lo g of fallacies, because ed u c ato rs u n d e r s t o o d rhat the ability to a s
sess an a rg u m e n t in everyday life was h o n e d by m asterin g r h e form al e l
e m e n ts of logic. E th ic s an d theo logy w ere p a rt of the c urricu lu m , to
444 Living Together
teach and to refine virtue. W e will n o t try to p rescribe h ow a c o n te m

porary curriculum m igh t be revised to ac h ie v e the sam e en d s, bey on d a
few essen tials: T o he an ed u cated person m ust m ean to h av e m astered a
core o f history, literature, arts, erhics, an d the sc ie n ce s an d , in the
p ro cess of learn in g th ose d iscip lin es, to h a v e b een train ed to w eigh , a n
alyze, an d e v a lu a te accord in g to e x ac tin g stan d ard s. T h is p ro c e ss m ust
begin in elem en tary sch ool an d m ust c o n tin u e th rou gh th e university.
O u r p rop osal will sound, an d is, elitist, but only in th e se n se th at, af
ter ex p o sin g stu d en ts to the best the w orlds in tellectu al h e ritag e h as to
offer a n d c h alle n g in g them to a c h ie v e w hatever level of e x c e lle n c e they
are cap ab le of, ju st a m inority of stu d en ts has th e p o te n tia l to b ecom e
an ed u cated p erso n as we are using the term . It is n ot w ith in ev e ry
o n e s ab ility to u n d erstan d th e w orlds in tellectu al h eritage at th e sam e
level, any m ore th an every on e w ho en ters college can e x p e c t to he a
th eo retical p h ysicist by trying hard en ou gh . At every stage of learning,
some people reach their limits. T h is is n o t a c o n tro v ersial sta te m e n t w hen
it ap p lies to th e h igh est levels o f learning. R ead ers w ho kept tak in g
m ath em atics as lo n g as they cou ld stan d it know th at at so m e p o in t they
hit the wall, an d stu dyin g hard was n o lon ger enou gh .
T h e n atio n h as been u n w illin g to ac c ep t in recent d e c a d e s th at the
sam e p h en o m en o n of in dividual lim itatio n ap p lies at every level of e d
u catio n . G iv e n th e c o n strain ts o f tim e and ed u c atio n al resou rces, som e
stu d e n ts c a n n o t be taught statistica l theory; a sm aller fractio n ot stu
d en ts c a n n o t be tau g h t the role o f m ercan tilism in E u ro p ean h istory ; for
even a sm aller fractio n , w ritin g a co h eren t essay m ay he out ot reach.
E ach level of ac c o m p lish m en t deserves respect on its ow n m erits, hut
the ideal o f the ed u cated p erso n is in itself an ideal th at m ust be e m
b raced openly. By ab an d o n in g it, A m e ric a h as b een tailin g sh ort b o th
in e d u c atin g its m o st gifted an d in in cu lcatin g, across th e en tire c o g n i
tive d istrib u tio n , th e values we w ould w an t in a n ed u cated citizenry.
B u t w h at d o we w an t to do! W h at courses sh ou ld be requ ired o f e d
ucated p erson s? D o we w ant to h av e sep arate sc h o o ls for th e gifted an d
av erage stu d en t? T rac k in g system s? A n atio n al G re a t B o ok s cu rricu lu m ?
W e will say it ag ain : D ifferen t p aren ts will w ant to m ak e d ifferen t
c h o ices for th eir ch ild ren . W e are n o t wise en o u gh and n e ith e r are
any of o u r c o lle a g u e s wise en o u gh , n o r is th e federal g o v e rn m e n t wise
en o u gh to p rescribe for th em w hat is best for th eir ch ild re n . T h e goal
of d e v e lo p in g ed u c ated p erson s, like the goal of im p ro v in g A m e ric a n
The Leveling of American Education 445
Ed ucated, N o t C r e d e n tia le d
It we have nor already made it plain, let us srate explicitly rhar we are
proposing a traditional ideal of education, n o t glorifying academic cre
dentials. To he an educated person as we use th e term w ill ordinarily e n
tail getting a degree, but that is incidental. C re den tialism unnecessarily
lim iting access to jobs to people w ith certain licenses and degrees is part
of the problem , n o t a solution. Because academ ic credentials are so over
valued, A m erica shies away from accepting th a t many people have acad
emic lim itation s hence, the dum bing do w n th a t holds hack the brightest
youngsters.
ed u catio n in gen eral, w i)l best he served hy le ttin g p aren ts and local
co m m u n ities m ak e th o se ch o ices.
Rut p aren ts a n d co m m u n itie s m ust turn to e d u cato rs to im p lem en t
their h o p es tor th eir c h ild ren , an d here is th e p roblem : T o o few educa
tors are c o m fo rta b le w ith th e idea o f th e e d u c a te d person. A century ago
the n o tio n of an e d u cated person w as a n e x p r e ssio n o f a shared u n d er
stan d in g , n o t o f legal req u irem en ts. T h a t u n d e rsta n d in g arose heoause
peop le w ere at ease wirh in tellec tu al sta n d a rd s, w ith rigor, w ith a re c o g
n itio n th at p e o p le d iffer in th eir c a p a c itie s. T h e criterion for bein g an
ed u cated p e rso n did n o t h av e to he c o m p ro m ise d to in clu de th e su p p o
sitio n th at e v ery o n e cou ld m eet it. T h e c o n c e p t o f th e ed u cated person
has been o u t o f fash io n w ith th e p e o p le w h o run elem en tary and se c
on dary sc h o o ls a n d , for th at m atter, w ith to o m any o f the peop le w ho
run u n iversities.
O u r p olicy go al.7 T h a t e d u cato rs w ho read th ese words ch an ge th eir
m inds. It is a reform th at is at o n ce im p o ssib le to legislate but requires
no m oney at all. It a reform th at w ould not je o p ard iz e the e d u catio n al
ad v a n c es o f th e av e rag e stu d en t. A ll th at we a sk is th at e d u catio n al le a d
ers re d ed icate th e m se lv e s to the duty th at w as o n ce a t the h eart o f th eir
callin g , to d e m a n d m u ch from th o se fo rtu n a te stu d e n ts to w hom m u ch
has b een g iv en .
Chapter 19
Affirmative Action in Higher

Education
Affirm ative action on the cam pus needs, a t last, to be discussed as it is a c tu -

ally practiced, not as the rhetoric portrays it. O u r own efforts to assemble d a ta
on a secretive process lead us to conclude that affirm ative action as it is p ra c
ticed cannot survive public scrutiny.
The edge given to minority applicants to college and graduate school is not
a nod in their fav o r in the case of a close call bu t an extremely large a d v a n
tage that puts black and Latino candidates in a separate admissions com peti
tion. O n elite cam puses, the average black fresh m an is in the region o f the
IOth to 15th percentile o f the distribution of cognitive ability am ong white
freshm an. N ation w id e, the gap seems to be a t least that large, perhaps larger.
The gap does not diminish in graduate school. I f anything, it may be larger.
In the world o f college adm issions, A sian s are a conspicuously unprotected
minority. A t the elite schools, they suffer a m od est penalty, with the average
A sian freshm an being at about the 6 Oth percentile o f the white cognitive ab il
ity distribution. O u r data from state universities are too sparse to draw c o n
clusions. In all the available, cases, the differen ce between white and A sia n
distributions is sm all (either plus or m in us) com pared to the large differences
separating blacks and Latinos from whites.
The edge given to minority candidates could be more easily deferided if the
competition were between disadvantaged m inority youths and privileged white
youths. But nearly as large a cognitive difference separates disadvantaged
black freshmen from disadvantaged white fresh m en . Still more difficult to d e
fend, blacks from affluent socioeconomic backgrounds are given a substantial
edge over disadvantaged whites.
There is no question that affirmative action h as w orked," in the sense that
it has put more blacks and Latinos on college cam pu ses than would otherwise
have been there. But this success m ust be m easu red against costs. W hen stu
dents look around them, they see that b lacks a n d L atin os constitute sm all p ro
4 48 Living Together
portions of the student population but high proportions of the students doing
poorly in school. The psychological consequences of this disparity may he part
of the explanation for the increasing racial animosity and the high black dropout
rates that have troubled A m erican cam puses. In society at large, a college de
gree does not have the sam e m eaning for a minority graduate and a white on e,
with consequences that reverberate in the workplace and continue throughout
life.
It is time to return to the original intentions o f affirmative action: to cast a
wider net, to give preference to members of disadvantaged groups, whatever
their skin color, when qualifications are similar. Such a change would accord
mine close!)1with the logic underlying affirmative action, with the needs o) to
day's students o f all ethnic groups, and with progress toward a healthy mul
tiracial society.
e c o m e to n a tio n a l p o lic ie s th at require people to treat groups
W d ifferen tly un d er th e law. A ffirm ativ e action began to be w oven

in to A m e ric a n e m p lo y m e n t and ed u c atio n al p ractices in the 1960s as
u n iv ersities an d em ployers in ten sified their recruiting of black s --in i
tially o n th eir ow n , th en in c o m p lian c e w ith a w idening body of court
d e c isio n s an d laws. By the early 1970s, affirm ative ac tio n h ad been e x
p an d ed beyond b lac k s to in clu d e w om en, L atin os, anil th e d isabled . If
also b e cam e m ore agg ressiv e. T argets, guidelines, and de fac to q u o ta s1'1
e v o lv e d as u n iv e rsitie s an d em ployers discovered that th e eq u ality ot
o u tc o m e th at p eo p le so u g h t was not to be had from trad itio n al recru it
ing m e th o d s. A s it b ec am e m ore aggressive, affirm ative ac tio n becam e
c o rre sp o n d in g ly m ore c o n tro v ersial.
A ffir m a tiv e a c tio n c re a te s an tago n ism partly becau se it affects the
d istrib u tio n of sc a rc e g o o d s university places, sch o larsh ip s, jo b otters,
and p ro m o tio n s th at p e o p le prize. B u t it is also p ro b lem atic for re a
son s th a t reach in to d eep ly h eld beliefs m ost fun d am en tally , beliefs
ab ou t th e ideal ot e q u al o p p o rtu n ity versus the reality o f the h isto rical
e x p e rie n ce of c e rta in grou p s, p reem in en tly blacks, in th is country. A s
the rh eto ric h e a ts up, th e argu m en ts ab ou t affirm ative a c tio n becom e
blurred. A ffirm a tiv e a c tio n raises d ifferen t q u estio n s in d ifferen t c o n
tex ts. W h at, p e o p le ask, a re th e proper goals of affirm ativ e a c tio n , the
p rop er m e th o d s? W h ic h g ro u p s are to be benefited? W h at are the c o sts
of a ffirm a tiv e a c tio n , and w h o should bear them ? Is affirm ativ e ac tio n
Affirmative Action in Higher Education 449
a tem porary e x p e d ie n t to correct p ast w rongs, o r m ust the A m erican

ideal o f in d iv id u alism be perm an en tly m od ified for the c o llectiv e needs
o f m em bers o f c e rta in groups?
A ffirm ativ e a c tio n is part o f this b o ok b ecau se it has been based on
th e e x p lic it assu m p tio n th at eth n ic groups d o n o t differ in the abilities
th at co n trib u te to su ccess in sc h o o l and the w ork place or, at any rate,
th ere are n o d ifferen ces th at c a n n o t be m ad e up with a few rem edial
co u rses or a few m o n th s on the job. M uch o f th is book has been given
o v e r to the m any w ays in w hich th at assu m p tio n is wrong. T h e im p li
c a tio n s h av e to be d iscussed , and th at is the p u rpose o f this ch ap ter and
th e n ex t, au gm en ted by an ap p en d ix on the ev o lu tio n of affirm ative a c
tio n regu lation s (A p p e n d ix 7). T ogeth er, th ese m aterials con stitu te a
lon ger d iscu ssio n th an we d evote to any o th e r policy issue, for two rea
son s. First, we are m ak in g a case th at c o n tra d ic ts a received w isdom em
bed d ed in an in tellectu al con sen su s, federal legislation , and Suprem e
C o u rt ju risp ru d en ce. If the task is to be a tte m p te d at all, it m ust be done
thoroughly. S e c o n d , we believe affirm ativ e a c tio n to be on e o f the m ost
far-reach in g d o m estic issues o f our tim e n o t m easured in its im m edi
ate effects, hut in its d eep and p erv asiv e im p ac t o n A m e ric a s under
stan d in g (if w hat is ju st and unjust, how a p lu ralist society should be
organized, and w h at A m e ric a is supposed to stan d for.
In this ch ap ter, the top ic is th e college cam pu s. In C h ap te r 20, we
d iscu ss affirm ativ e actio n in the w orkplace. In both ch ap ters, we pro
vid e d ata as a v a ila b le on A sia n s and L a tin o s, but the analysis centers
on blacks, as h as th e d eb ate over affirm ativ e actio n .
T H E E D G E IN A FF IR M A T IV E A C T IO N
P eo ple m ay agree th at they w ant affirm ativ e a c tio n in higher ed u cation

until they say m ore precisely w hat they m ean by it. T h e n they m ay dis
agree. B ut w h atev er the argum ent, it w ould h elp to h ave som e data
ab ou t how c o lle g e s an d u n iversities h av e tran slated the universal desire
for g reater fairn ess in university ed u catio n in to affirm ative actio n pro
gram s. O u r first goal is to inform the d eb ate w ith such data.
A t first g lan c e, ours m ay seem an od d o b je c tiv e , for certain kinds of
d ata ab ou t affirm ativ e a c tio n are ab u n d an t. U n iv e rsitie s and bu sinesses
keep d etailed n u m b ers ab ou t the num bers o f m in o rities w ho apply and
are a ccep ted . B u t d a ta ab ou t the core m ech a n ism o f affirm ative actio n
the m agn itu d es o f the v alu es assigned to group m em b ersh ip are n ot

part o f th e p u blic d eb ate.
T h is ig n o ran ce ab ou t p rac tic e was revealed in 1991 by a law stu d en t
at G e o rg e to w n U n iversity, T im o th y M aguire, w ho had b een hired to file
stu d en t re c o rd s.2 H e su rrep titiou sly co m p iled th e en tra n c e sta tistic s for
a sam ple o f a p p lic a n ts to G e o rg e to w n s law sch o o l an d th en p u blish ed
the results o f h is research in the law sc h o o ls stu d en t new spaper. H e re-
vealed th at the m ean o n the Law S c h o o l A p titu d e T est ( L S A T ) differed
by a large m arg in for accep ted b lack and w hite stu d en ts.
In th e sto rm th at ensued, the d ean o f rhe law sch o o l ordered c o p ie s
o f the n ew sp ap er to be c o n fiscated and black stu d en t g ro u p s c a lle d for
M ag u ires e x p u lsio n . H ardly an y on e w ould ack n o w led ge th at M a g u ire s
num bers e v e n raised a legitim ate issue. In com p lete an d d isto rte d in
form ation ab ou t m inority q u alific a tio n s for ad m issio n in to rhe Law
C e n te r renew the lo n g -stan d in g an d in tellectu ally d ish o n est m yth th at
they are less q u alified th an th eir w hite cou n terp arts to c o m p e te in
sch ool, p erform on the jo b or receiv e a p ro m o tio n , w rote th e au th o rs
ot an op -ed article in the Washington P o st,' and th at se e m e d to he the
p revailin g a ttitu d e . T h e nu m erical m agn itu d e o f the ed ge g iv e n to m e m
bers o f c e rta in group s the value assign ed to th e state of b ein g b lack ,
L atin o, fem ale, or physically d isa b led was not co n sid e re d relev an t.
S u c h ed ges are in h eren t in the process. In as neutral and p re cise la n
guage as w e can d evise: P erfectly p rac tic ed , the trad itio n al A m e ric a n
ideal o f e q u al op p ortu n ity m ean s u sin g exclu siv ely in dividu al m easu res,
applied uniform ly, to c h o o se som e p eop le over oth ers. P erfectly p r a c
ticed, affirm ativ e a c tio n m ean s assign in g a prem ium , a n ed ge, to group
m em bersh ip in ad d itio n to th e in dividu al m easures before m ak in g a fi
nal asse ssm e n t th a t ch ooses som e p eo p le over others.
T h e size o f the prem ium assign ed to group m em b ersh ip an e th n ic
prem ium w h en it is ap p lied to affirm ativ e ac tio n for fav ored eth n ic
groups is im p o rta n t in trying to jud ge w h eth er affirm ativ e a c tio n in
principle is w ork in g. T h is kn o w led ge sh ould be useful n o t on ly (or ev en
prim arily) for d e c id in g w h eth er o n e is for or a g a in st affirm ativ e a c
tion in the a b stra c t. It sh ou ld be esp ecially useful for th e p ro p o n e n ts o f
affirm ativ e a c tio n . G iv e n th at on e is in fav or o f affirm ativ e a c tio n , how
m ay it be p ra c tic e d in a way th at con fo rm s w ith o n e s o v e rall n o tio n s o f
w hat is fair an d ap p ro p riate? If on e o p p o ses affirm ativ e a c tio n in p rin
ciple, how m u ch is it d eform in g b eh a v io r in p ractice?
It is n ot o b v io u s precisely w here q u estio n s o f fact trail in to q u e stio n s
ot p h ilosoph y, but we w ill attem p t to stay on th e factu al side o f the line

at first. A b it o f p h ilo so p h ic a l sp e c u la tio n is rese rv e d for the end o f the
chapter. W e first e x a m in e e v id en c e on th e m a g n itu d e o f the eth n ic pre-
m ium trom in d iv id u a l co lleg es an d u n iv e rsitie s, th e n from professional
sch ools. W e th en recast th e N L S Y d a ta in te rm s o f the ration ale un-
derlying affirm a tiv e ac tio n . W e c o n c lu d e th a t th e size o f the prem ium
is u n reason ab ly large, p ro d u cin g d ifferen ces in ac ad em ic talen t across
cam p u s e th n ic g ro u p s so gap in g th at th ey are in n o o n e s best interest.
W e further argue th at the current p ra c tic e is o u t of k eep in g w ith the ra-
tio n ale for a ffirm a tiv e actio n .
T he M agn itud e o f the Edge in U n d ergrad u ate Sch ools
W e h av e o b ta in e d S A T d ata on c la sses e n te r in g tw enty-six o f rhe n a

tio n s top c o lle g e s an d u n iversities. In 1 975, m o s t of rhe n a tio n s elite
p riv ate c o lleg es an d u n iversities form ed th e C o n so rtiu m on F in an cin g
H igh er E d u c atio n ( C O F H E ) , w hich, a m o n g o th e r th ings, com piles and
sh ares in fo rm atio n o n th e stu d en ts at m e m b e r in stitu tion s, in cluding
their S A T sco res. W e h av e o b tain ed th ese d a t a tor rhe classes en terin g
in 1991 an d 1 9 9 2 .4 T h e y in clude six te e n o u t o f rhe twenty top-rared
p riv ate u n iv e rsitie s an d five of the top te n p riv a te colleges, as ranked in
U .S . N ew s and World Report for 1 9 9 L 5 T h e figu re below show s the d if
feren ce in rhe sum o f rhe av erage V erbal an d M a th S A T scores betw een
w hites and tw o m in o rities, blacks an d A s ia n s , for the classes in the
C O F H E sc h o o ls th a t m atric u lated in th e fall o f 1992. In ad d ition , rhe
figure in clu d es d a ta on the U n iv ersity of V irg in ia and rhe U n iversity o f
C a lifo rn ia at B erk eley in 1988.
T h e d ifferen ce b etw een hlack and w h ite sc o re s w as less than 100
p o in ts at on ly o n e sc h o o l, H arvard. It e x c e e d e d 200 p oin ts at n in e
sch o o ls, re ac h in g its h igh e st ar B erk eley (2 8 8 p o in ts). O v e rall, the m e
d ian d ifferen ce b e tw e e n th e w hite m ean a n d th e b lack m ean was 180
S A T p o in ts, or, co n se rv ativ e ly e stim ate d , a b o u t 1.3 stan dard d e v ia
tio n s.1' 1T h is w ould p u t th e av erage h lack a t a b o u t the 10th p ercen tile
o f w hite stu d en ts. In all but tour sc h o o ls, A s ia n s were w ithin 6 p o in ts
o f rhe w hire m e a n or a b o v e it, w ith a m e d ia n S A T 30 p oin ts ab ove the
local w hite av erag e, w ork in g out to a b o u t .2 sta n d a rd d ev iatio n s. O r in
o th e r w ords, th e av e rag e A sia n w as at a b o u t th e 6 0 th p ercen tile of the
w hite d istrib u tio n . T h is c o m b in a tio n m e a n s th at blacks and A sian s
h av e even less o v e rla p th an b lack s an d w h ites a t m ost sch ools, with the
452 Living Together
A t s e le c t iv e sc h o o ls, th e m ed ian b lac k edge w as 1 8 0 S A T p o in ts,

w h ile A s ia n s fac e d a m edian p en alty o f 3 0 p o in ts
SAT-point difference from the w hite mean
Blacks Asians
Rice
Berkeley
Univ. o f Virginia
Dartmouth
-57 Oberlin
1 -37 Univ. of Rochester
Wesleyan
I -28 Univ. o f Chicago
58 Stanford
um 42 Colum bia
mm 38 Duke
Trinity
M 36 Williams
M 35 Northwestern
H 55 Johns Hopkins
34 W ellesley
Swarthmore
1 8 Amherst
40 Princeton
w tm 40 Brown
H i 21 Cornell
mm 23 U Penn
H 65 Harvard
Georgetown
1 W MIT
Washington
-300
.Sources; C o n so rtiu m on Financing Higher Education 1992; Savich 1990 (for Berkeley); 1..
Ivinherg, B lack freshm an enrollm ent rises 46% at U -V a," Washing!on Post, Dec. 26, 1988,
p. C l (for U n iversity ot Virginia).
m edian b lac k at th e 5rh to 7th p ercen tile o f the d istrib u tio n o f A sia n
stu d e n ts. D a ta for L atin o s (n o t show n in the figure) p u t th em betw een
b lack s a n d w h ites, w ith a m ed ian o f 129 p o in ts below the w h ite m ean ,
or a b o u t .9 sta n d a rd d ev iatio n below the w hite m ean in rhe ty p ical case.
T h e a v e ra g e L a tin o is th erefore at ab ou t rhe 2 0th p erc e n tile o f th e d is
trib u tio n o f w'hite stu d e n ts.181
T h e o rd erin g of black, L a tin o , w h ite , a n d A sia n is sim ilar to th a t r e

p orted tor IQ a n d S A T scores in C h a p t e r 1 3. In oth er w ords, e lite u n i
versities are race n o rm in g (th o u g h it is d o u b tfu l they th in k of it th a t
w ay), carryin g w ith them in to th eir s r u d e n t p o p u la tio n s rhe e th n ic d if
ferences in c o g n itiv e d istrib u tio n s o b se rv e d in the p o p u latio n at larg e .
W e w ould p refer to h av e a sa m p le o f n o n e lite stare u n iversities r e p
resented in our d ata, but such n u m b e rs are clo se ly gu ard ed .M T h e o n ly
d ata wc h av e o b ta in e d com e from th e U n iv e r s ity o f C a lifo rn ia at D a v is,
tor 1979. T h e b lack -w h ite d ifferen ce th e n w as 271 S A T p oin ts, an d th e
L atin o -w h ite d ifferen ce 211 p o in ts.1101 T h e A sia n m ean at D av is w as,
atypically, 54 p o in ts below the w h ite m e a n , th e largest such d iffe re n ce
we h av e foun d.
T h e d a ta from th e U n iv ersity o f V ir g in ia an d the two U n iv e rsity of
C a lifo rn ia cam p u ses su ggest th at th e g a p b e tw e e n m inorities and w h ite s
am o n g fresh m en at state u n iv ersities m ay b e larger th an at the e lite p ri
vate sch o o ls. It is on ly a su g g estio n , g iv e n th e lim ited d ata, but it a lso
A r e A s i a n s the V ictim s of R e v e r s e Discrim ination?
C o m p la in ts that Asian-A m erican app lican ts were being subjected to re

verse discrim ination led eventually to a full-scale inquiry in rhe late 1980s
by rhe federal Office for C iv il R ights. H arvard, which was examined
closely, was able to show that rhe S A T p e n alty of their Asian admitted stu
dent.', was accounted for by rhe smaller n u m b e r of alum ni children and a t h
letes in rhe pool, and eventually got a clean bill of health, bur the
controversy remains at many other in sritu rio n s.11 Brown responded to a re
port from its Asian-A m erican S tudents A ssociation by adm itting the ex
istence ot an extremely serious s itu a tio n and called tor im m ediate
remedial measures. 12 A t Berkeley, S ta n fo rd , Princeton, and other elite
schools, special committees have investigated the issue, issuing reports th at
rend to exonerate rbeir colleges of actual reverse discrim ination but ac
knowledge shortcomings in keeping up w ith rhe revolution in Asian a p
plicants.1
The underlying source of tension rem ains: Asians are an ethnic m in o r
ity, many of w hom , or whose parents, cam e to the U nited States under c ir
cumstances ot extreme deprivation. M a n y suffered from racial prejudice.
W h e th e r or nor they are treated differently from whites by elite universi
ties, Asians are indisputably treated differently from every other n o n w h ite
ethnic m inority. University officials everywhere have been reluctant ro
confront this issue forthrightly.
454 Living Together
m ak e s sen se: P laces like H arv ard , S tan fo rd , Yale, and M IT g et first pick.
B e c a u se the raw n u m bers o f h igh -scorin g b lack an d L a tin o stu d e n ts are
s o sm all, th e top sc h o o ls d ig d eep in to th e th in layer of m in o rity stu
d e n ts a t the top o f th e S A T d istrib u tion . In 199 3, for e x am p le , on ly 129
b lac k s and 2 3 4 L a tin o s n atio n w id e h ad SA T -V erbal scores in rhe 7 0 0 s
a n d th ese rep resen ted all-tim e h igh s com pared to 7 ,1 1 4 w h ites. Even
h igh ly rated state in stitu tio n s such as the U n iv ersity o f C a lifo r n ia s
B erk e le y cam p u s an d th e U n iv ersity o f V irgin ia lose m any of th ese m ost
ta le n te d m in o rity stu d en ts to th e elite p riv ate sch o o ls w hile c o n tin u in g
to g et m any o f the top scorers in th e larger w hite pool. S u c h are the
m a th e m a tic s of c o m p e titio n for a scarce goo d, borne ou t by the lim ited
u n iv ersity d a ta av ailab le , w h ich show the three state u n iv e rsitie s w ith
th re e o f the four largest black -w h ite gaps in SA T s.
T h e L a w o f S u pp ly and D em an d in M inority R e cru itin g
Affirmative action has produced intense competition for the top black and
Latino students. In the spring of 1992, Harvard reported that its yield ot
black students abruptly declined from the year before. The Harvard report
suggested rhat rhe decline was due at least in part to rhe large financial in
centives being offered to blacks by other colleges. One such black student,
it was reported, received a straight grant of $85,000, plus $10,000 in a n
nual travel budgets, from one of Harvards competitors in minority re
cruiting.14 An article in the New York Times provided more instances ot a
practice that increasingly includes the kind of enticements full scholar
ships even tor families with ample financial resources, free trips to visit the
campus, recruiting visits, and promotional activities that used to be re
served for star high school athletes. A s a result, a number ot college offi
cials privately accuse each other of stealing black students, the Times
reporter noted.
T h e d ifferen ces do not seem to h av e ch an ged a great d e al betw een

th e 19 70s an d th e 1990s. T h e b est lon gitu d in al d ata from B erk eley il
lu strate a p erverse effect of a stro n g affirm ativ e ac tio n policy: T h e m ore
a g g re ssiv e th e recru itm en t o f m in o rities, th e h igh er the av erag e ability
o f th e nonmmority stu d en ts. From 1978 to 1988, th e co m b in e d S A T s o f
b lac k s a t B erk eley rose by 101 p oin ts, a m ajor im p rove m en t in th e a c a
d e m ic q u ality o f b lack stu d en ts at Berkeley. But th e c o m p e titio n for the
a llo tm e n t o f w hite slots b e c a m e ever m ore in tense. T h e result w as th at
the S A T sco res tor B erk eley w hires rose too, a n d the gap betw een b lack
and w hite stu d e n ts a t Berkeley d id n ot clo se b u t w id en ed .1161 M e an w h ile,
rhe u n p ro te c te d m inority, A sian s, also w ere c o m p e tin g tor a restricted
allo tm en t o f slots. T h e ir m ean scores rose m o re th an any oth e r g r o u p s,
and by a large m arg in , g o in g from far below th e w hite m ean to slig h tly
ab ove it. In ju st ele v e n years, th e A sia n m ean ar Berkeley soared by 189
points.
T h e sum m ary sta te m e n t ab o u t a ffirm a tiv e ac tio n in u n d ergrad u ate
in stitu tion s is th a t b ein g eith er a black or a L a tin o is w orth a great d e al
in th e ad m issio n s p rocess at every u n d e rg rad u ate sch ool for w hich we
have d ata. E v en th e sm allest know n b lac k -w h ire differen ce (95 p o in ts
at H arv a rd ) rep resen ts c lo se to a stan d ard d e v ia tio n for H arvard u n
dergrad u ates. T h e gap in m ost co lleg es is so large thar rhe black and
w hite stu d en t b o d ies h av e little ov erlap. T h e situ atio n is less e x trem e
tor L atin o stu d e n ts but still severe. A sia n stu d e n ts appear to suffer a
pen alty for b ein g A sia n , alb eit a sm all on e o n th e average. W e have seen
no d a ta th at w ould d isp u te th is p ictu re. If su c h d ata exist, perh aps th is
p re se n tatio n w ill en co u rage th eir p u b lic a tio n .
The M agn itud e of the Edge in G ra d u a te Schools
L aw S( :h o o i ,s . T im o th y M a g u ires tin d in gs a b o u t the G eo rg eto w n Law

( 'e n te r w ere c o n siste n t w ith m ore sy ste m a tic e v id en ce. T h e tab le b e
low show s th e n a tio n a l Law S c h o o l A p titu d e T est (L S A T ) results for
1992 for registered first-year law stu d en ts. F o r b lack s, ov erlap w ith the
w hite in co m in g law stu d en ts w as sm all; on ly 7 p e rce n t had scores a b o v e
the w hite m ean . T h e o v erall L atin o -w h ite d iffe re n ce was 1 stan dard d e
v iatio n . It w as m arked ly larger for P uerto R ic a n s ( - 2 .0 S D s ) th a n for
A ffir m a tiv e A c tio n W e ig h ts:

T h e L a w S c h o o l A p t itu d e T e st
Eth n ic G r o u p D if f e r e n c e from
W h it e M e a n ,
in S D s
Asian/Pacific .32
Blacks - 1.49
Latinos 1.01
Source: Barnes and C arr 1991.

456 Living Together
M e x ic a n - A m e ric a n s ( - . 8 ) or o th e r L atin o s {- !) T h e o v e rall A sia n

m e a n c o rresp o n d s to th e 3 8 th p ercen tile o n the w hite d istrib u tio n , ev-
id e n c e o f m o d e st affirm ativ e ac tio n on b e h a lf o f A sia n ap p lic a n ts in the
law sc h o o ls.
T h e ta b le ab o v e is for th e n atio n al p o p u la tio n o f first-year law
stu d e n ts. T o assess th e effects o f affirm ativ e ac tio n , it w ould be p re fe r
a b le to h a v e d ata from in d iv id u al law sch ools. A t upper re ach e s o f the
L S A T d istrib u tio n , from w hich the elite law sch o o ls drew m o st of th eir
stu d e n ts, th ere was even less ov erlap betw een w hites an d b lack s th an in
th e S A T p o o l. M ore th an 1,100 registered w hite law stu d en ts h ad sco res
o f 170 or h igh e r on a scale g o in g from 120 to 180, c o m p are d to th ree
b lack s. A t ten highly selectiv e law sch o o ls for w hich in d iv id u a l d a ta
w ere rep orted in a 1977 rep ort by th e Law S c h o o l A d m issio n s C o u n c il,
th e sm alle st black-w h ite d ifferen ce in L S A T scores (e x p resse d in term s
o f th e w h ite d istrib u tio n ) at any of rhe ten sc h o o ls was 2.4 stan d a rd d e
v ia tio n s, th e largest was .3.6 stan dard d ev iatio n s, and th e av erag e d iffe r
e n c e for th e ten sch o o ls was 2.9 stan d ard d e v iatio n s, m e a n in g th a t the
av e ra g e b lac k was in th e bo trom 1 p ercen t of the w hite d istr ib u tio n .1111
M EDICAL SCHOOLS. M e d ic a l stu de nts repeat th e fa m ilia r p a tte r n , as

s h o w n for th e n a tio n a l p o p u la tio n of m a tric u la te d first-year stu d e n ts in
1 9 9 2 in th e tab le helow . In th e n a tio n a l p o o l, th e b la c k - w h ite gap is
A ffirm a tiv e A c tio n W eigh ts:

T h e M e d ic al C o lle g e A d m issio n s T e st
D iffe ren ce from the W hite M e a n , in S D s

E th n ic Biological Physical Verbal
G roup Scien ces S cien ce s R e a so n in g
Blacks -1.36 -1.26 -1.40
O th e r under-represented
m inorities'' -.75 -.84 .84
O th e r1' +.04 +.15 -.45
Source; Division ot E ducational Research ami A ssessm ent 199?, pp. 59-63.
1 O th er under-represented m inorities consists o f Am erican Indian /A laskan

natives, M exican -A m erican /C h ican i , and m ainland Puerto Ricans.
b A sian/P acific, com m onw ealth Puerto Ricans, and Latinos not otherwise-
classified.
ab o u t th e sam e as in the law sc h o o ls, w ith th e av erage en te rin g black

m ed ical stu d e n t at th e 8 th to 10th p e rc e n tile o f th e w h ite d istrib u tion ,
d ep e n d in g on w h ich su b test o f rhe M e d ic a l C o lle g e A d m issio n s T est
( M C A T ) we co n sid er. T h e gap b etw een w h ite s an d o th e r underrepre-
sen ted m in o ritie s is a bit sm aller th a n th e L atin o -w h ite gap in law
sch o o l, w ith rhe av erage stu d en t in th is g ro u p stan d in g at the 20th to
23d p erc en tile ot th e w hite d istrib u tio n . T h e o th e r c ate g o ry m ostly
A sia n had h ig h e r scores th an w h ites o n th e p h y sical scien ce s and
(frac tio n ally ) o n b io lo g ic al scien ces, sta n d in g , respectively, at the 56th
and 52d p e rc e n tile s of the w hite d istrib u tio n , w hile sco rin g low er in v e r
bal reaso n in g (3 2 d p e rc e n tile ).
A s in th e c a se of law sch o o ls, rhe h lack m e d ic al stu d e n t pool is even
m ore severely d e p le te d at the top en d of th e range th an it is in u n d er
grad u ate sc h o o ls, w ith im p ortan t im p lic a tio n s for the g ap in the elite
sch ools. In n o n e o f th e three su b tests d id m ore th an 19 b lack s score in
rhe 12 to 15 ran ge (o n a scale th at go es trom 1 to 15), com p ared to 1,146,
1,469, and 853 w h ites (for the b io lo g ic a l sc ie n c e s, physical scien ces, and
verbal re aso n in g tests, re sp e c tiv e ly ).|1M| In p ra c tic a l term s, several of the
elite sch o o ls c a n fill th eir en tire c la ss w ith w hite stu d e n ts in rhe top
ran ge, but on ly th e o n e or two m ost e lite sc h o o ls can h o p e to have a sig
n ifican t n u m b er o f b lack stu d en ts w ith o u t p ro d u cin g ex trem ely large
b lack-w h ite d ifferen ces, c o m p a rab le to th o se reported for elite law
sch ools.
O th e r stu d ies h a v e p u b lish ed d ata o n m e d ic al sch ool ad m ission s, e x
pressed in term s ot rhe o d d s o f b ein g a c c e p te d to m ed ical sch ool tor d if
ferent m in o rities. A ll tell sim ilar sto ries to o u rs.1191
G raduate Sch o o ls in t h e A rts a n p S c i e n c e s . A p p lic a n ts ro g rad u

ate sch o o ls o th e r th an law and m e d ic in e ty p ically tak e th e G ra d u a te
R ecord E x a m in a tio n (G R E ) , co m p risin g v erb al, q u a n tita tiv e , and a n a
lytical su b tests. T h e reports ot G R E sc o re s d o n o t d istin g u ish berw een
person s w ho rak e rhe test and p erson s w ho actu ally reg ister in a g rad u
ate sc h o o l, so they are less useful th an th e L S A T or M C A T in trying to
un d erstan d th e sc o p e an d m ag n itu d e o f affirm ativ e a c tio n in th ose
sch o o ls. N o n e th e le ss, the results, in th e ta b le below , lo o k fam iliar. T h e
m ag n itu d es o f th e e th n ic d ifferen ces o n th e in d iv id u al su b tests o f the
O R E (in 1 9 8 7 - 1 9 8 8 , the m ost re c e n t y ear for w hich we w ere given d ata)
w ere so m ew h at sm alle r th an for the p ro fe ssio n a l sc h o o ls, p u ttin g b lack s
458 Living Together
a t th e 10th to 12th p erc e n tile o f the w hite d istrib u tio n , d e p e n d in g on

th e subtest. A sia n s w ere (a s u sual) higher th an w hites o n th e q u a n tita
tiv e and low er on the verb al. A d d in g up all three su b test m ean s, A sia n s
w ere a few p o in ts h igh er th an w hites.
A p p lic a n ts to G r a d u a te S c h o o ls
D iffe ren ce from the W hite M ean, in S D s

Ethnic G r o u p Verbal Q u an titative A n a ly tica
Asian/Pacific -.37 +.52 -.15
Blacks -1.20 -1.19 -1.29
Latino -.74 -.46 -.54
Sourci': W ah and Robinson, 1990, Table 2.2.
T h e sum m ary statem e n t is th ar the eth n ic gaps in o b je c tiv e test sco res
o b serv ed in u n d ergrad uate in stitu tio n s are m atch ed , and p erh ap s e x
ce e d e d , in g rad u ate an d p ro fessio n al sc h o o ls. If d ata b e c o m e a v a ila b le
fro m in dividu al sch ools, th is q u estio n can be answ ered d efin itively .
A FF IR M A T IV E A C T IO N A S PART OF T H E A D M ISSIO N S
PRO CESS
T h e d ata we h av e just su m m arized should restrain casu al asse rtio n s th at

th e d ifferen ces am on g the b lack s, L atin o s, A sian s, and w hites w ho go
to co lleg e are n o t w orth w orrying about. T h e d ifferen ces we h av e d e
scrib ed are large by any d e fin itio n . B u t do these d a ta give us any le v e r
ag e on the q u e stio n of w h eth er affirm ativ e actio n as it is cu rren tly
p rac tic ed is go o d or bad? F o r an answ er, we begin by in q u irin g in to the
lo g ic o f affirm ativ e ac tio n and th en ex am in e w hether the p a tte rn s o f
ra c ia l and so c io e c o n o m ic d ifferen ces ob served in th e N L S Y m ak e sense
in term s o f th at logic.
T he Logic of C ollege A dm issions
O n the c a m p u s, affirm ativ e a c tio n is n o t a t o d d s w ith the n o rm al a d

m ission s p ro cess. C o lle g e ad m ission is n o t, h a s n e v e r been, nor is th ere
reason to th in k it sh ou ld be, a c o m p e titio n b a se d purely o n ac a d e m ic
m erit. T h e n o n a c a d e m ic ends c a n be le g itim a te an d im portant. N o a d
m ission s p o licy c an serve all g oo d en d s eq u ally , b ecau se the ends are o f
ten in co n siste n t w ith on e an oth er. T h e a d m issio n s process is a ju g g lin g
act, and a ffirm a tiv e a c tio n fits squarely in a lo n g trad itio n . O ur u n d e r
stan d in g o f rhe le g itim ate role of a ffirm a tiv e a c tio n , w hich owes m u ch
to R o b ert K litg a a rd s d iscu ssio n o f th e sa m e to p ic, will be categorized
under th e h e ad in g s of in stitu tio n a l b e n e fit, social utility, and ju st
d eserts.
I n s t i t u t io n a l B k n b f it . O n e of the g o als o f any ad m ission s p ro cess is

to serve rhe in stitu tio n s own in terests. W h y d o m any co lleg es give som e
preferen ce to stu d e n ts from faraw ay sta te s? T o c h ild ren of alu m n i?1211 To
all-stare lin e b a c k e rs or c o n c e rt p ian ists? S o m e o f rhe answ ers in v o lv e
the good of th e in stitu tio n as a w hole. A stu d e n t from M o n tan a c a n add
d iversity to a c o lle g e in C o n n e c tic u t; a good foo tb all team can
stren g th en a c o lle g e s sense of c o m m u n ity an d perh aps en co u rag e
alu m n i gen ero sity. B lack and L atin o stu d e n ts ad m itted under a ffirm a
tive a c tio n c a n en ric h a cam p u s by ad d in g to its diversiry.
T h e in stitu tio n also h as in terests b ey o n d daily cam p u s life. A d m it
tin g rhe ch ild re n o f its faculty an d of its m o st g e n e ro u s alu m n i m ay add
little th at is d istin c tiv e to rhe stu d en t body, for ex am p le, but th eir p a r
en ts m ake a big d ifferen ce to th e h ealth a n d q u ality of the in stitu tio n ,
an d k eep in g th em h appy is im p o rtan t. B e y o n d the college gates is s o c i
ety at large. U n iv e rsitie s c a n n o t disregard w h a t rhe broader co m m u n ity
th in ks of th em , an d so they m ust be se n sitiv e to th e currents of th eir
tim e. T h e p o litic a l pressure (le t alo n e th e le g al req u irem en t) for so m e
level of a ffirm a tiv e a c tio n in th e u n iv e rsitie s h as b een irresistible.
T h e se in stitu tio n a l in terests are valid a n d sig n ifica n t but u n sa tisfa c
tory as th e en tire ra tio n a le for affirm a tiv e a c tio n , for there are to o m an y
ways in w h ich affirm ativ e a c tio n h as se lf-e v id e n t draw back s. If it is a d
m issible to a u g m e n t th e p resen ce o f so m e rac ial or e th n ic m in o ritie s
solely b ec au se th ey serve the in terests o f th e u niversity, is it not a ls o a p
p rop riate to lim it th e p resen ce o f m in o ritie s for the sam e reaso n ? It is a
460 Living Together
re le v a n t q u estio n , for, w h ile lim its for Jew s m ay b e largely b e h in d us,

lim its for A sia n s m ay b e u p o n us. F u rth erm o re, o n e c a n n o t a v o id th e
p ro b le m by argu in g th a t it is a p p ro p ria te to h a v e floors for c e rta in grou ps
b u t in ap p ro p riate to h a v e c e ilin g s for oth ers. M a k in g m ore ro o m for o n e
grou p m u st red u ce th e ro o m for oth e rs. In stin ctiv ely , o n e w ish es for
m o rally stro n ger ju stific a tio n s for a ffirm a tiv e a c tio n th a n in stitu tio n a l
in terests. T w o are a v a ila b le .
SOCIAL U t i l i t y . C o n sid e r th e c ase o f th e cro w n p rin c e o f a large kin g-

d o m w h o also h a p p e n s to b e a y o u n g m a n o f p e d e strian in te llig e n c e a n d
in d ifferen t ch aracter. H e ap p lies to a c o m p e titiv e A m e ric a n u n iversity
P rin c e to n , w e sh all say. S h o u ld P rin c e to n a d m it h im in p re fe re n c e to th e
m an y b rig h ter a n d m ore v irtu o u s stu d en ts w h ose a p p lic a tio n s flo o d
th e ad m issio n s o ffice? T h e so c ia l u tility c rite rio n m ay say yes, for th is
y o u n g m a n is e v e n tu a lly g o in g to in flu en ce th e liv es o f th e m illio n s o f
p e o p le in h is ow n country. H e m ay b e d raw n in to issues th a t c o u ld affect
in te rn a tio n a l p e a c e a n d prosperity. P rin c e to n m ak es a c o n tr ib u tio n to
h u m a n h a p p in e ss if it c a n h e lp th e cro w n p rin c e d e v e lo p in to a th o u g h t
fu l an d h u m a n e ad ult.
T h e sam e k in d o f c a lc u la tio n b e d e v ils p ro fe ssio n a l sc h o o ls in c h o o s-
in g a m o n g m e n a n d w om en . F o r e x a m p le , if it is em p iric ally tru e th a t
w o m e n are m o re likely th a n m e n to le a v e a p ro fe ssio n , th e re is a n au-
th e n tic q u e stio n o f reso u rces to b e c o n sid e re d w h en se le c tin g w h o sh all
b e tra in e d in th a t p ro fessio n . G iv e n th a t th e g o o d c a lle d a m e d ic a l e d
u c a tio n is severely lim ite d , h ow im p o rta n t is th e e th ic a l n u d g e in th e
d ire c tio n o f u sin g sc arc e resou rces e fficien tly ? C o n v erse ly , h ow im p o r
ta n t is it to g e t w o m en in to th ese p ro fessio n s so th at, in th e fu tu re, it
w ill be e asie r for m ore o f th e m to p u rsu e su c h careers?
S u p p o se n o w th a t it is a g a in P rin c e to n c h o o sin g b e tw e e n tw o c a n
d id ate s, o n e b la c k a n d o n e w h ite. B o th are from a fflu e n t p ro fe ssio n a l
fam ilie s, so so c io e c o n o m ic d isa d v a n ta g e is n o t a n issue. T h e w h ite h as
h ig h e r te st sco res an d (ju st to m ak e th e c ase still p la in e r) m ore glo w in g
re fe re n c e s th a n th e b la c k c a n d id a te . B o th p la n to b e c o m e atto rn e y s. In
so m e sen se, th e w h ite c a n d id a te d e se rv e s a d m issio n m ore. B u t w h o is
g o in g to p ro v id e m ore so c ia l v a lu e -a d d e d ? A d d in g o n e m o re w h ite a t
to rn ey to th e ran k s o f p ro m in e n t atto rn e y s, o r ad d in g o n e m o re b la c k
o n e ? P rin c e to n co u ld re aso n ab ly c h o o se th e b la c k c a n d id a te o n grou n d s
th a t o n ly by e x p a n d in g th e size o f th e n e x t g e n e ra tio n o f m in o rity
law yers, p h y sic ian s, b u sin e ssm e n , a n d p rofesso rs c a n so c ie ty a tta in ra c ia l
e q u ality a t th e h ig h e r so c io e c o n o m ic an d p ro fe ssio n a l le v e ls. O n ly
w h en e q u ality is re a c h e d at th o se h ig h e r lev els w ill m in o rity y o u th s ro u

tin ely asp ire to su c h careers. A n d , th e arg u m e n t c o n tin u e s, o n ly w h en
th e a sp ira tio n s for su c c ess a n d th e ir fu lfillm e n t are th u s eq u alized w ill
we re a c h th e k in d o f real ra c ia l e q u ality th a t w ill e v e n tu ally sh ow up in
te st sco res as w ell as e v ery th in g else.
F o r now, le t us ign ore w h eth er a ffirm a tiv e a c tio n w ill in fa c t h a v e
th e se g o o d effects an d c o n c e n tr a te in ste ad o n th e lo g ic o f th e arg u m en t.
T h e sam e lo g ic c a n j ustify n o t o n ly c h o o sin g a m e m b e r o f a m in o rity o v e r
a w h ite, it c a n ju stify c h o o sin g a m em b er o f o n e m in o rity o v e r an o th er.
F or e x a m p le , a c a se m ay be m ad e for sy ste m atica lly fav o rin g b la c k s o v e r
A s ia n s o n th e so c ia l u tility c rite rio n b a se d n o t o n c a lc u la tio n s th a t
A fr ic a n slav e s fa c e d g reater o p p re ssio n in th e p a st th a n th e C h in e se
b ro u g h t to b u ild th e railro ad s b u t o n th e p ro p o sitio n th a t th e o p p o rtu
n itie s for a d eg ree m ay b e m o re v a lu a b ly d istrib u te d to A fr ic a n A m e r i
c a n s in ste ad o f A s ia n A m e ric a n s, g iv e n th e c o n te m p o rary state o f affairs
in A m e r ic a n society. In d eed , early in th is century, w h e n c o lle g e s w ere
d isc rim in a tin g ag a in st Jew s, th e reaso n s g iv en , w h en th ey w ere g iv e n at
all, w ere a m ix tu re o f in stitu tio n a l self-in te re st a n d so c ia l u tility .1221
O n c e ag a in , h ow ev er, th e ra tio n a le for affirm a tiv e a c tio n is n o t fully
satisfactory. L o o k in g b a c k to th e tim e w h en th e n u m b ers o f Je w s or
w o m e n o n a c am p u s w ere strictly lim ite d , m o st p e o p le fee l u n c o m fo rt
ab le w ith th e ratio n a le s, h o w ev er d isp a ssio n a te ly a c c u ra te th ey m ig h t
h a v e se e m e d a t th e tim e. T h e y are u n c o m fo rta b le p artly b e c a u se o f th e
in ju stic e, w h ich brin gs us to th e fin al c rite rio n th a t sh o u ld be p art o f
th e ad m issio n s p rocess.
JUST D eserts. B ey o n d in stitu tio n a l b e n e fit an d so c ial utility, co lle g e

a d m issio n s m ay recogn ize w h at m ig h t b e c alle d ju st d e se rts. A s th e d i
re c to r o f ad m issio n s to C o lu m b ia C o lle g e ex p re sse d it, O n e h a s to tak e
in to a c c o u n t h ow w ell o n e h as d o n e w ith th e e n v iro n m e n t [an a p p li
c a n t h as] b e e n h a n d e d .23 T h e a p p lic a n t w ho o v e rc a m e poverty , c u l
tu ral d isa d v a n ta g e s, a n u n se ttle d h o m e life, a p ro lo n g e d illn ess, o r a
c h ro n ic d isa b ility to d o as w ell as h e d id in h ig h sc h o o l w ill g e t a tip
from m o st ad m issio n s c o m m itte e s, e v e n if h e is n o t d o in g as w ell a c a d
e m ic a lly as th e a p p lic a n ts u su ally a c c e p te d . T h is tip for th e d isa d v a n
tag e d d o es n o t se em unfair.
T h is is th e in tu itiv e ra tio n a le o f affirm ativ e a c tio n for b lac k s, w ho
w ere d e m o n strab ly th e v ic tim s o f legal o p p re ssio n , e n fo rce d by th e state ,
from th e fo u n d in g o f th e c o lo n ie s th ro u gh th e m id d le o f th is century,
a n d o f p e rv a siv e so c ia l d isc rim in a tio n th a t still p e rsists to so m e d egree.
462 Living Together
T o g iv e b la c k s a n ed ge b e c au se th ey are b la c k acco rd s w ith th is sen se o f

ju stic e . A t a n e la b o ra te d lev el, th ere is a w id esp read im p re ssio n th a t th e
u n d e rre p re se n ta tio n o f b la c k s a n d L a tin o s (a n d p erh ap s o th e r groups,
su c h as A m e r ic a n In d ia n s) in e lite sc h o o ls is a n effe c t o f ra c ia l o r e t h
n ic in ju stic e , p rop erly co rre c te d by affirm a tiv e a c tio n in u n iv e rsity a d
m issio n s. If it w ere n o t for th e ra c ism in ou r society, th e grou p s w ould
b e p ro p o rtio n a lly rep rese n ted , so m e b e lie v e . A still m o re e la b o ra te d
v e rsio n o f th e a rg u m en t is th a t th e very ap p ro a c h to le arn in g , re a so n
in g, an d arg u m e n ta tio n in u n iv e rsitie s is itse lf rac ist, so th a t th e p re
d ic to rs o f u n iv ersity p erfo rm an c e, su c h as S A T or IQ sco res, are
th erefo re rac ist too . A ffirm a tiv e a c tio n red resses th e b u ilt-in rac ism in
th e ad m issio n s p ro cess a n d th e c u rric u lu m .24
Two Com m on B u t Invalid A rgum ents Regarding

A ffirm ative A ction
We have reviewed the rationales for affirmative action without even m en

tioning the two most commonly made points: first, that the real difference
in academ ic ability between minority and white candidates is much smaller
than the difference as measured by test scores, and, second, that gradations
in ability do n ot count for much after a certain threshold of ability has been
met.
T his first point is based on allegations of cultural bias in the tests, cov
ered in C hapter 13 and A ppendix 5. A s readers will by now be aware, much
research argues strongly against it. T h e second point, often expressed by
university officials with the words everyone we adm it can do the work,
is true in the limited sense that students with com paratively low levels of
ability can get passing grades. It is not correct in any broader sense. Higher
scores predict better academ ic performance throughout the range o f scores.
There is no reason to think that a threshold exists above which differences
in tested ability have little effect on the quality of the student body, stu
dent performance, and the nature of student interactions.25
S o th ere are th ree c o h e re n t ra tio n a le s for c o n c lu d in g th a t it is ju st,

as w ell as in stitu tio n a lly a n d so c ially useful, to ad m it m in o rity stu d e n ts
fro m sp e c ific m in o rity grou p s e v e n if th ey are so m e w h at less q u alifie d
th a n th e o th e r c a n d id a te s w ho w ou ld be ad m itte d . T h e ra tio n a le s are
n o t e v e n c o n tro v e rsia l. Few o f th e o p p o n e n ts o f affirm a tiv e a c tio n are
p re p are d to argu e th a t u n iv e rsitie s sh o u ld ign o re an y o f th e se c rite ria a l
to g e th e r in m ak in g ad m issio n s d e c isio n s. W ith th a t issue b e h in d us, th e
Affirmative Action in Higher Education 4 63
q u e stio n b e c o m e s w h eth er a ffirm a tiv e a c tio n as it is b e in g p ra c tic e d is

d o in g w h at its a d v o c a te s w an t it to d o. D o e s it se rv e w orth w h ile p u r
p o se s for th e in stitu tio n s th e m se lv e s, for stu d e n ts, for so c ie ty a t large,
or for a c o m m o n ly sh ared se n se o f ju stic e ?
A Schem e fo r C o m p arin g R ation ales with P ractice
W e w ill se t th e p ro b le m first w ith h y p o th e tic a l a p p lic a n ts to c o lle g e , d i

v id e d in to fou r c ate g o rie s, th e n w e w ill in se rt th e a c tu a l c o g n itiv e a b il
ity sco res o f th e c o lle g e stu d e n ts in th o se cate g o rie s. T h e four cate g o rie s
are re p resen ted in th e 2 X 2 tab le below , w here low a n d h ig h refer
to th e full ran g e o f cu ltural a n d e c o n o m ic a d v a n ta g e s an d d isa d v a n ta g e s.
A F ra m e w o rk fo r T h in k in g a b o u t th e M a g n itu d e o f P r e f
eren c e T h a t S h o u ld B e G iv e n to a M in o r ity C a n d id a te
W H IT E
Low High
(3) (4)
H igh Scarsdale Scarsdale
A ppalachia Scarsdale
M IN O R IT Y
(2) (1)
Low South Bronx South Bronx
A ppalachia Scarsdale
S c a r sd a le d e n o te s an y a p p lic a n t from an u p sc ale fam ily. S o u th

B ro n x d e n o te s a d isa d v a n ta g e d m in o rity you th , a n d A p p a la c h ia d e
n o te s a d isa d v a n ta g e d w h ite you th . E a c h c ell in th e tab le c o rre sp o n d s
to a p a ir o f a p p lic a n ts a w h ite a n d a m in o rity from e ith e r h ig h o r
low so c io e c o n o m ic an d c u ltu ral c irc u m stan c e s. S ta r tin g a t th e low er
rig h t an d g o in g c lo ck w ise aro u n d th e tab le , th e c a te g o rie s are: (1 ) a m i
n o rity a p p lic a n t fro m a d isa d v a n ta g e d b a c k g ro u n d a n d a w h ite fro m a
p riv ile g e d b a ck g ro u n d ; (2 ) a m in o rity a n d a w h ite a p p lic a n t, b o th from
d isa d v a n ta g e d b a ck g ro u n d s; ( 3 ) a m in o rity a p p lic a n t from a p riv ile g e d
b a ck g ro u n d a n d a w h ite fro m a d isa d v a n ta g e d b a ck g ro u n d , an d (4 ) a
m in o rity a n d a w h ite a p p lic a n t, b o th fro m p riv ile g e d b ack g ro u n d s.
Im ag in e you are o n th e ad m issio n s c o m m itte e an d c h o o sin g b e tw e en
two c a n d id a te s. A ssu m e th at all the n o n ac ad e m ic q u a lific a tio n s b esid e s

race are fully sp ecified by h igh and low statu s for th is p air of c a n d id a te s
and th at th e IQ is the on ly m easure of acad em ic ab ility b e in g c o n sid
ered. (In o th e r w ords, let us disregard grades, ex tracu rricu lar a c tiv itie s,
a th le tics, alu m n i p aren ts, an d o th er facto rs.) You are trying to d ecid e
w h eth er to ad m it th e m in o rity ap p lic an t o r the w hite a p p lic a n t. H ow
big a d iffe re n ce in IQ are you w illin g to ac c e p t in each c e ll an d still pick
the m in o rity c an d id a te o v er the w hite can d id a te? L et us c o n sid e r each
cell in tu rn , startin g w ith rhe situ atio n in w hich th e m in o rity m ig h t be
e x p e c te d to g et th e largest p rem iu m to th e on e in w hich th e prem ium
argu ably sh o u ld go to the w hite.
C ell I : T hf. S o u t h B r o n x M in o r it y v e r s u s t h e Soars d a ll W h it e .
T h e largest w eight o b vio u sly b elo n g s in the cell in w hich th e m in ority

stu d en t is d isa d v an tag e d an d th e w hite stu d en t is ad v a n tag e d . C o n s id
e ratio n s o f ju st d eserts argue th a t it is n ot fair to eq u ate th e test scores
of the y o u n g ster who has g o tte n the fin est e d u c atio n m o n ey an d statu s
can buy w ith the test scores of the youn gster who h as stru ggled th rou gh
poor sc h o o ls and a terrible n eig h b o rh o o d . C o n sid e ra tio n s of so c ia l u til
ity argue th a t it is d esirable to have m ore m inority stu d e n ts g e ttin g g o o d
c o lleg e ed u c atio n s, so th at so ciety m ay alter the effects of p ast d isc rim
in ation an d p rovid e a basis for an even tu ally color-blin d so ciety in rhe
future. W e assign + + to this cell to in d icate a large p referen ce for the
m in ority c an d id a te . A relatively large d eficit in the m in o rity a p p lic a n ts
test sco re m ay properly be ov erlo ok ed .
C ell 4: T h e S o a r s d a l e M in o r it y v e r s u s t h e Sc a r s d a l k W h it e . If a
college is c h o o s in g be tw ee n tw o students in the h ig h - h ig h c e ll, b o th
from S carsd ale w ith college-educated parents a n d fa m ily in c o m e s in six
figures, rhe social u t ilit y crite ria say th a t there is a ra tio n a le for p ic k in g
th e m in o r it y y o u th ev e n if h is test scores are s o m e w h a t low er. B u t d o
in g so w o u ld v io la te just deserts w h e n th e w h ite s tu d e n t has h ig h e r test
scores a n d is in every o th e r way e q u al to th e m in o r ity s tu d e n t. W h i c h
c r ite r io n s h o u ld w in out? T h e re is n o way to say for sure. O u r o w n view
is th a t, as p e rso n a lly h u r tfu l as th is in ju s tic e m ay be to th e in d iv id u a l
w h ite p e rso n in v o lv e d , it is re lativ e ly m in o r in th e g ra n d s c h e m e o f
th in g s. T h e p riv ile g e d w h ite y o u th , w ith strong c re d e n tia ls a n d pare nts
w h o c a n pay for co lle ge , w ill get in to a g o o d college s o m e p la c e . W e
therefore assign a + to this ce ll to signify som e e th n ic p r e m iu m to the
m in o r ity c a n d id a te b u t less t h a n in the first in stan ce .
C ell 2: T u n South Bro n x M i n o r it y versus the A p p a l a c h ia n
W HITE. N ow im a g in e a m in o r ity s tu d e n t f r o m th e S o u th B ro nx a n d a
w h ite s tu d e n t fr o m a n im p o v e ris h e d A p p a l a c h ia n c o m m u n ity . T h e f a m
ilies of b o t h s tu d e n ts are at th e w ro n g e n d o f th e scale of ad v a n ta g e .
W h i c h o n e s h o u ld get th e n o d in a close c a ll? T h e w h ite has ju st as
m u c h or n e a rly as m u c h social u t ilit y g o in g for h im as th e black does.
A m e r ic a n society w ill b e n e fit from e d u c a t in g youngsters from d is a d
v a n ta g e d w h ite b a c k g ro u n d s, too. B o t h h a v e a c la im based o n ju st
deserts. A m e r ic a likes to t h in k th a t p e o p le c a n w o rk th e ir way u p fro m
th e b o tto m , a n d A p p a la c h ia is th e b o t t o m n o less th a n th e S o u th B ro n x .
P erhaps th e re is som e residual p r e m iu m asso cia te d w ith b e in g b la c k ,
based o n rhe s u p p o s itio n th a t ju s t b e in g b la c k puts o n e at a greater d is
a d v a n ta g e t h a n a w h ite in th e a ll else e q u a l case a m ore persuasive
p o in t w h e n a p p lie d to blacks fro m th e S o u t h B ro n x th a n w h e n a p p lie d
to blacks fro m S carsd ale. W e assign = 0 to t h is c e ll, in d ic a tin g t h a t th e
a p p ro p ria te e t h n ic p r e m iu m for the m in o r it y s tu d e n t is n o t m u c h greater
th a n zero (o th e r th in g s b e in g e q u a l) a n d is c e r ta in ly sm aller th a n in th e
S carsdale-Scarsdale case.
C e l l 3: T h e S c a r s d a l e M in o r it y v e r s u s t h e A p p a l a c h ia n W h it e .
N o w we are c o m p a r in g th e p riv ile g e d m in o r it y stu d e n t w ith the d is a d

v a n ta g e d w h ite s tu d e n t. W h e r e o n e c o m e s o u t o n the scale o f social
u tility d e p e n d s o n h o w o n e values th e c o m p e t in g goals to be served. It
seems h a rd to ju s tify a social u tility v a lu e t h a t nets o u t in favor o f th e
m in o r ity y o u th , ho w ev e r. (Yes, there is s o c ia l u t ilit y in a d d in g a m in o r
ity to th e ranks o f successful atto rn ey s, e v e n if he com es from an a fflu
e n t b a c k g r o u n d , b u t there is also so c ia l u t ilit y in v in d ic a tin g th e
A m e r ic a n d r e a m for p o o r w h ite s a n d in a d d in g a representative o f d is
a d v a n ta g e d w h ite A m e r ic a to th e ran k s o f successful attorneys.) S o m e
t h in g close to zero seems to be th e a p p r o p r ia te ex pected v alue o n th e
social u tility m easure , a n d th e w h ite y o u t h s h o u ld get a plus o n th e ju st
deserts a r g u m e n t. I f th e c h o ic e is b e tw e e n a p o o r w h ite youngster fro m
an aw fu l e n v ir o n m e n t a n d a n a fflu e n t m in o r it y youngster w h o has g o ne
to fin e sch o o ls, a n d if th e p o o r w h ite h a s s o m e w h a t low er test scores
t h a n th e a fflu e n t m in o rity , it is a p p r o p r ia te to give rhe po or w h ite at
least a m o d e s t p r e m iu m . W e th u s e n te r - in t o this ce ll, to reflect th e
fact th e w h ite y o u t h gets th e n o d in a c lo se ca ll.
T h e fille d -in tab le is show n below . W e m a y argue ab ou t how large an
e th n ic p rem iu m , exp ressed in IQ , sh o u ld b e to lerated in e ac h cell, but
466 Living Together
A R a tio n a le fo r T h in k in g A b o u t th e P r e fe r e n c e
G iv e n to a M in o r ity C a n d id a te
W H ITE
Low H igh
SES SE S
H igh (3) (4)
SES - +
M IN O R IT Y
Low (2) (1)
=0 ++
SES
th e ran k in g o f th e p rem iu m s seem s h ard to d isp u te. W ith th is in m in d ,

we are read y to e x a m in e h o w affirm ativ e a c tio n in th e N L S Y sam p le
sq u ared w ith th is view o f th e a p p ro p ria te d isc re p a n c ie s.1261
R ation ale v s . Practice
T o fill in th e ta b le w ith d ata, w e d iv id e d N L S Y stu d e n ts w h o w e n t to

four-year in stitu tio n s in to th o se in th e u p p er an d low er h a lv e s o f
so c io e c o n o m ic b a ck g ro u n d , u sin g th e so c io e c o n o m ic statu s in d e x
d e sc rib e d in A p p e n d ix 2. (W e also c o n d u c te d th e an aly sis w ith m ore
e x tre m e d e fin itio n s o f p riv ile g e an d d isa d v a n ta g e .)1271 W e th e n se le cte d
th e su b sa m p le o f w h ites a n d b la c k s w h o h a d a tte n d e d th e sam e sc h o o ls,
a n d c o m p u te d th e m e a n IQ for th e u p p er a n d low er h a lv e s o f s o c io e
c o n o m ic statu s for th e se m a tc h e d p airs, sta tistic a lly c o n tr o llin g for in
stitu tio n . S a m p le sizes o f th e se m a tc h e d p airs ra n g e d fro m 7 2 for th e c e ll
in th e to p left to 5 0 4 for th e c e ll in th e low er righ t. T h e fille d -in tab le
b e lo w sh ow s th e d ifferen ce b e tw e e n th e w h ite a n d b la c k I Q sco re s in
stan d a rd d e v ia tio n s.1281
L e t us try to p u t th e se n u m b ers in term s o f th e c h o ic e s fa c in g a n a d
m issio n s officer. H e h a s tw o fold ers o n th e d esk, re p re se n tin g th e low er
le ft-h a n d c e ll o f th e tab le . T h e tw o a p p lic a n ts d iffer in c o g n itiv e ab ility
by 1.17 stan d a rd d e v ia tio n s, an d b o th are so c io e c o n o m ic a lly d is
a d v a n ta g e d . M o re sp e c ifica lly (in c o rp o ra tin g in fo rm a tio n a b o u t th e
m e an s n o t sh o w n in th e ta b le ), o n e stu d e n t is a lm o st e x a c tly av e rag e in
c o g n itiv e ab ility for su c h c o lle g e stu d e n ts, a t th e 4 9 th p e rc e n tile o f th e
d istrib u tio n ; th e o th e r is a t th e 1 2 th p e rc e n tile . Is it a p p ro p ria te to tre a t
th e c h o ic e as a toss-u p if th e stu d e n t a t th e 1 2 th p e rc e n tile h a p p e n s to
T h e A c t u a l M a g n itu d e o f th e P r e fe r e n c e
G iv e n to B la c k C a n d id a te s
W H IT E S E S
Below A bove
average average
+.58 +.91
A bove average
(-) (+ )
BLA CK SES
+ 1.17 + 1.25
Below average
(~0) (+ + )
b e b la c k ?1291 T h e ty p ic al a d m issio n s o fficer h as, in effect, b e e n tre a tin g

tw o su c h a p p lic a n ts as a toss-up .
W e p u t th e q u e stio n in th a t w ay to try to e n c o u ra g e th in k in g ab o u t
a su b je c t th a t is n o t m u ch th o u g h t ab o u t. H o w b ig a n ed ge is ap p ro p ri
ate? In a p rop erly ru n sy stem o f a ffirm a tiv e a c tio n , sh o u ld th e av erag e
d isa d v a n ta g e d b la c k an d av e rag e d isa d v a n ta g e d w h ite w h o g o t to a
g iv e n c o lle g e d iffer by so large a m argin ?
C o n sid e r th e n e x t p air o f fo ld ers, w ith tw o a p p lic a n ts from p riv ile g e d
b a ck g ro u n d s (th e u p p er rig h t-h a n d c e ll). O n e is a t th e 5 7 th c e n tile o f
c o lle g e stu d en ts, th e o th e r a t th e 2 3 d c e n tile , c o rre sp o n d in g to alm o st
a stan d a rd d e v ia tio n d ifferen ce. Is it re a so n a b le to c h o o se e a c h w ith
e q u al lik e lih o o d if th e o n e a t th e 2 3 d c e n tile is b lac k , as th e ty p ic al
a d m issio n s o fficer n o w d oes?
H o w m ig h t o n e ju stify th e u p p er left ce ll, rep re se n tin g th e p riv ile g e d
b la c k v ersu s th e d isa d v a n ta g e d w h ite, w here th e ed g e g iv e n to th e b la c k
c a n d id a te sh o u ld b e n o g re a te r th a n zero u n d er an y p la u sib le ra tio n a le
for a ffirm a tiv e a c tio n (o r so w e arg u e ), an d p ro b a b ly sh o u ld b e less th a n
zero? A d isa d v a n ta g e d w h ite y o u th w ith c o g n itiv e ab ility a t th e 3 6 th
c e n tile o f c o lle g e y o u th s n o w h as th e sam e c h a n c e o f b e in g a d m itte d as
a p riv ile g e d b la c k y ou th a t th e 1 7 th c e n tile .
F in ally, c o n sid e r th e low er righ t ce ll, th e o n e th a t m o st clo se ly fits
th e im age o f affirm a tiv e a c tio n , in w h ich a p riv ile g e d w h ite is c o m p e t
in g w ith a d isa d v a n ta g e d b la c k . T h e lo g ic o f a ffirm a tiv e a c tio n im p lies
a su b sta n tia l d ifferen ce in th e q u a lific a tio n s o f tw o y o u th s fittin g th is
d e sc rip tio n w h o h a v e a n e q u al c h a n c e o f b e in g ad m itte d . Is th e d iffer
e n c e ac tu ally o b serv ed b e tw e e n a w h ite a t th e 5 7 th p e rc e n tile o f c o l
lege stu d e n ts a n d o n e a t th e 1 2 th p e rc e n tile a re a so n a b le o n e ? In IQ
term s, th is is a d ifferen ce o f a lm o st n in e te e n p o in ts.
468 Living Together
W e do n o t suppose th at ad m issio n s officers have th ese folders sid e by

sid e as they m ake th eir d ec isio n s. In facr, giv en the pressures on a d m is
sio n s co m m itte e s, th e d e te rm in in g facto r for ad m ission is o fte n th e sh eer
n u m b e rs of m inority a p p lic an ts. If rhe percen tage of m in o ritie s in the
in c o m in g fresh m an class go es up, th at is con sid ered goo d. If th e per
c e n ta g e g o es dow n, th at is co n sid ered bad. T o m ake the n u m bers com e
o u t right, th e ad m ission s c o m m itte e feels pressed to dig d e e p e r in to the
p o o l of a v a ila b le ap p lican ts if necessary. T h ey do nor w ant to ad m it u n
q u a lifie d m in ority c an d id ates, nor d o they w ant to prefer ad v a n tag e d
m in o rity ap p lic a n ts ov er d isa d v an tag e d w hites. Bur th ese q u estio n s
a rise , if they arise at all, on ly after the m ore pressin g m atter of m in ority
re p re se n ta tio n is atten d ed to. T h e goal is to have e n o u g h b lack s and
o th e r m in o rities in the in co m in g class. M eanw h ile, w hite a p p lic a n ts are
ju d g e d in co m p e titio n w ith o th e r w hite can d id ates, using th e m any c ri
te ria th at h av e alw ays been ap p lied .
T h e m ain purpose of the e x erc ise we h av e just c o n d u cte d is to su ggest
th a t ad m issio n s com m ittees sh ou ld be perm itted to b eh av e a little m ore
lik e our im agin ary on e th an they are at present, giv en the pressu res from
h ig h e r levels in the university. If university officials th in k that these
d a ta are n ot ad eq u ate for th e p urp oses we h av e used th em , or if they
th in k th at w e have m isrep resen ted rhe affirm ative a c tio n p rocess, there
is an easy rem edy. U n iv e rsitie s across the country h av e in their
ad m issio n s files all the d ata need ed for d efin itive an alyses of th e rela
tio n sh ip o f erhnicity, so c io e c o n o m ic d isad v an tage, an d acad em ic
a b ility test d ata, grade d ata, p aren tal b ackgroun d d ata in p ro fu sio n
fo r stu d e n ts w ho were ac c e p te d an d stu d en ts w ho were re jected , stu d e n ts
w h o en ro lled and stu d en ts w ho did not. A t m any sch o o ls, th e d a ta are
alre ad y in co m p u te r files, ready for analysis. T h ey m ay readily be m ade
a v a ila b le to sch olars w ith o u t com p ro m isin g c o n fid e n tiality . O ur
p ro p o sitio n is th at affirm ativ e a c tio n as it is currently p ra c tic e d in
A m e r ic a s u n iv ersities h as lost touch w ith any reaso n ab le u n d e rsta n d
in g o f the lo gic and p urp oses o f affirm ativ e actio n . It is easy to put this
p ro p o sitio n to the test.
T H E S U C C E S S O F A F F IR M A T I V E A C T I O N IN T H E
U N IV E R SIT IES
T h e su ccess o f affirm ative a c tio n in the university is in d isp u tab le , in the

se n se th at a c o n scio u sly d esig n ed public policy, backed by th e en th u si-
Affirmative Action in Higher Education 4 69
as tic c o o p e ra tio n o f u n iv ersities, d rastica lly in c r e a se d the n u m ber of

m inority stu d e n ts w ho atten d an d g rad u ate from c o lle g e . T h e m a g '
n itud e of th e su c c e ss d u rin g th e first flu sh o f a ffirm a tiv e actio n is
ap p aren t in th e figu re below, w h ich sh ow s th e re su lt for b lack e n ro ll'
I-M]
m ents.
W h en a g g r e ssiv e a ffirm a tiv e a c tio n b e g a n , b la c k c o lle g e en ro llm e n t

su rg ed fo r a d e c a d e
B lacks ages 2 0 - 2 4 enrolled in school

25% -
Trendlines established in..

2 W/r - ...1976-9!
15'X -
...1 9 5 0 - 6 6
i o% -
5% -
Q/< -| | | | I
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
Source: U .S . Bureau ot the C ensu s 1975, 199?, various edition s.
In 1967, b lack e n ro llm e n t o f 2 0 -2 4 - y e a r - o ld s su d d e n ly sh ot up, and

c o n tin u e d to rise steep ly th rough th e m id -1 9 7 0 s. W h ite e n ro llm e n t
e x p e rie n c e d n o c o m p a rab le surge d u rin g th a t p e rio d . T h e m ost p la u si
ble cau se of th e surge is the agg ressiv e a ffirm a tiv e a c tio n th at b egan in
the m id -1 9 6 0 s. O n th e o th er h an d , th is fig u re p rev ie w s a p roblem we
will d iscu ss at m ore len g th in th e n e x t c h a p te r: W h a te v e r in itial im p e
tus w as p ro v id ed by affirm ativ e a c tio n , it s o o n lost m om en tu m . B lack
e n ro llm en t in th e early 1990s w as h igh e r th a n th e tre n d lin e from 1950
to 1966 w ould h av e p red icted , but so m e so rt o f e v e n in g -o u t p ro cess
seem s to h av e se t in as w ell. B la c k e n ro llm e n t d ro p p e d during th e late
1970s, rec o v ered m o d estly d u rin g th e e arly an d m id -1 9 8 0 s, th en in-
470 Living Together
c re ase d sh arp ly a t th e e n d o f th e d e c a d e . T h e le v e l o f b la c k co lle g e

e n ro llm e n t as o f th e early 19 9 0 s is h ig h e r th a n a t an y o th e r tim e in
h istory.
F u rth erm ore, th e e n ro llm e n t o f b la c k s rose n o t on ly to e q u ality bu t
to m ore th a n eq u ality w ith w h ites o f c o m p a rab le so c io e c o n o m ic b a c k
g ro u n d an d in te llig e n c e . A s we sh o w ed in C h a p te r 14, th e p ro p o rtio n
o f b lac k s o b ta in in g c o lle g e d egrees su b sta n tia lly e x c e e d s th a t o f w h ites,
a fte r c o n tr o llin g for IQ . A s w e h a v e ju st fin ish e d d o c u m e n tin g a t le n g th ,
th e o p p o rtu n ity for c o lle g e is also m o re o p e n to b lac k s th a n to w h ites
w ith e q u iv a le n t te st scores.
G iv e n th e g o a ls o f affirm a tiv e a c tio n , it is ap p ro p ria te to see th is in
c re ase as a su ccess. W e assu m e as w ell (w e h a v e fo u n d n o h ard d a ta ) th a t
affirm a tiv e a c tio n h a s also in cre ase d th e sen se a m o n g m in o rity y o u th s
th a t c o lle g e is a n o p tio n for th e m a n d in creased th e n u m b e r o f co lle g e-
e d u c a te d m in o rity ro le m o d e ls fo r m in o rity you th s. S till o th e r b e n e fits
c la im e d for affirm ativ e a c tio n h e lp in g ju m p -start a d v a n c e s in th e n e x t
g e n e ra tio n o f m in o rity grou p s o r im p ro v in g rac e re la tio n s are y e t in
th e re alm o f sp e c u latio n .
T H E C O S T S OF A F F IR M A T IV E A C T IO N IN T H E U N IV E R S IT IE S
T h e c o sts o f a ffirm a tiv e a c tio n h a v e b e e n m easu red in d iffe ren t w ays.31

R e la tiv e ly little o f th is c o m m e n tary h a s in v o lv e d th e c o sts to w h ites.
T h e r e are su c h c o sts so m e n u m b e r o f w h ite stu d en ts are d e n ie d p la c e s
a t u n iv e rsitie s th ey c o u ld oth erw ise h a v e w on , b ec au se o f affirm a tiv e
a c tio n .32 B u t m o st o f th e c o n c e rn a b o u t affirm ativ e a c tio n c o m e s d ow n
to th is q u e stio n : H o w m u c h h a rm is d o n e to m in o rity se lf-esteem , to
w h ite p e rc e p tio n s o f m in o ritie s, an d u ltim a te ly to e th n ic re la tio n s by a
sy stem th a t p u ts a c a d e m ic a lly less ab le m in o rity stu d e n ts sid e by sid e
w ith stu d e n ts w ho are m o re ab le? T h e re are n o h ard -an d -fa st answ ers,
b u t a t le ast w e c a n d iscu ss th e m ag n itu d e o f th e p ro b le m fro m th e stu
d e n ts eye view an d fro m th e v a n ta g e p o in t o f th e g e n e ra l p o p u la tio n .
T h e S tu d e n ts E y e V iew o f M inority a n d W hite C ognitive A bility
G e t tin g to k n o w stu d en ts from d ifferen t b a ck g ro u n d s is a p ro p e r p art o f

a c o lle g e e d u c a tio n . B u t g iv e n th e d ifferen ces in th e c o g n itiv e a b ilitie s
o f th e stu d e n ts in d ifferen t groups, d iv ersity h a s o th e r c o n se q u e n c e s. T o
th e e x te n t th a t th e grou p s h a v e d ifferen t scores, b o th p e rc e p tio n s an d
grad es w ill tra c k w ith th em . C o n sid e r o n c e a g a in th e p ro b a b ility o f
re a c h in g c o lle g e for stu d e n ts a t d ifferen t lev els o f c o g n itiv e ability.

C o m p a ra tiv e ly sm all p ro p o rtio n s o f stu d e n ts w ith low in te llig e n c e g e t
to c o lle g e , n o m a tte r w h at th eir race. B u t th e stu d e n t o n th e gro u n d
d o es n o t see th e e n tire p o p u la tio n o f stu d e n ts w ith IQ s in th e b o tto m
q u artile (le t us say ). R ath er, th e on ly p e o p le in th e b o tto m q u artile
w h o m h e sees are th e o n es w h o re a c h e d c o lleg e .
T o see ju st h o w d ifferen t th ese p e rsp e ctiv e s c a n be, let us ta k e first
th e ex tre m e a b o v e th e b a ttle view o f ra c ia l te n sio n s th a t m ig h t be
c au sed by affirm a tiv e a c tio n . T h e a rg u m en t go es as follow s:
Yes, there is a racial discrepancy in test scores, though one should in

terpret those differences cautiously no m atter what the evidence on cultural
bias m ay be. B u t in reality we are talking about sm all num bers and sm all
differences. In the N L S Y d ata, blacks in the bottom quartile o f cognitive
ability who reach /owr-êar colleges am ount to less than 4 percent of the
youths on those cam puses, while whites am ount to alm ost 2 percent. C a n
anyone seriously think that this trivial difference can be a m ajor problem ?
T h e an sw er seem s as if it is self-e v id e n tly n o . B u t n o w w e sw itch to

th e view from gro u n d lev el: from th e v a n ta g e p o in t o f th e c o lle g e
stu d e n t w h o atte n d s c la sses, liste n s to fello w stu d e n ts ta lk in class,
o b serv es w h at is g o in g o n in th e library a n d th e labs, a n d g o ssip s w ith
frien d s a b o u t o th e r stu d en ts. L e t us im ag in e th re e o b se rv a tio n s o f th e
k in d th a t stu d e n ts c o m m o n ly m a k e in th e n o rm a l co u rse o f c am p u s life:
th e ra c ia l m ix o f th e en tire stu d e n t p o p u la tio n , th e stu d e n ts w h o stan d
o u t b e c a u se th ey seem to b e e sp e c ia lly o u t o f p la c e in a u n iversity , an d
th e stu d e n ts w ho sta n d o u t b e c au se th ey seem to be e sp e c ially sm art.
W e w ill o p e ratio n alize th is stu d e n ts cam p u s view by lo o k in g a t th e
N L S Y su b je c ts w h o a tte n d e d a four-year u n iv e rsity (e x c lu d in g h isto ri
cally b la c k sc h o o ls), fo c u sin g o n th o se w ith IQ s th a t p u t th e m in th e
to p a n d b o tto m 10 p e rc e n t o f su c h stu d en ts. T h e figu re b elo w d isp lay s
w h at ou r h y p o th e tic a l stu d e n t sees. It sh ow s stu d e n ts by IQ , b u t a fig
ure th a t c o n ta in e d th e sam e b reak d o w n by c o lle g e g rad es (u n a v a ila b le
in th e N L S Y ) w ou ld sh ow ro u gh ly th e sam e p atte rn . B a c k e d up by th e
m an y stu d ies th a t h a v e e x a m in e d th e re la tio n sh ip b e tw e e n c o g n itiv e
te st sc o re s (e sp e c ia lly S A T sc o res) a n d p e rfo rm a n c e in c o lle g e : C o g n i
tiv e test sco res g en erally overpredict c o lle g e grad e p o in t av e rag e ( G P A )
for b o th b la c k s an d L a tin o s, in c o m p a riso n to w h ite s.33 If an y th in g , a
figu re sh o w in g stu d e n ts w ith th e to p a n d b o tto m 10 p e rc e n t o f C P A s
w ould sh ow a n e v e n greater e th n ic d isc re p an c y in c o lle g e p erfo rm an c e
472 Living Together
T he students eye view of cognitive ability
Ethnic C o m p o sitio n o f the Student B o d y on an A verage C am p u s
A ll students
Students in the top

10% o f IQ
Students in the
bottom 10% of IQ
34%
Whites
betw een w h ite s an d blacks or L a tin o s th an the d iscrep an cy in IQ s in

d ic ate s.141 S im ila rly , the d a ta from in d ivid u al co lleg es th a t o p e n e d the
c h ap te r su g g e st th a t this aggregate n atio n al p ictu re w ould look n o b e t
ter, an d m ig h t w ell look worse, in a sch ool-by-sch oo l p ortrait.
S u c h large d ifferen ces in p erform an ce are ob v io u s to all, in clu d in g
oth er stu d e n ts. T h e problem , and a m ajo r c o st o f affirm ativ e a c tio n , is
th at w h ile b la c k s in the N L S Y co n stitu te d on ly 12 p e rc e n t o f th o se w ho
w ent to c o lle g e , they were 52 p erccn t o f th e stu d en ts in the b o tto m 10
p e rce n t in c o g n itiv e ability and an alm o st in visibly sm all p ro p o rtio n of
rhe top 10 p e rc e n t. T h e sta tistic a l d ifferen ce th at w as triv ial in th e view
from a b o v e th e b a ttle has b ecom e a large racial d iscrep an cy a t groun d
level. M e a n w h ile th e im b alan ce betw een L a tin o s re p re se n ta tio n in the
cam p u s p o p u la tio n and in the bo ttom 10 p ercen t of in te llig e n c e is less
ob v io u s, w h ile th e o th e r category' (a c o m b in atio n o f A s ia n s , P acific
e th n ic gro u p s, an d A m e ric a n In d ian s) is p ro p o rtio n ately re p re se n te d in
the top a n d b o tto m (as a c o n g lo m e rate if we sp lit them up, m ost of
th o se in rh e to p are A sia n ). W e suggest th at the figure p re se n te d ab o v e
is im p o rta n t in trying to u n d erstan d som e o f the m ost d iffic u lt racial
p ro b le m s b e se ttin g A m e ric a's u n iversities.
R a c ia l A n im o s it y . R a c ia l clashes o n cam puses b e ga n to surface in th e

early 19 8 0 s a n d a p p a re n tly h a v e be en gro w in g since th e n , w ith th e great
b u lk o f th e d iffic u ltie s be tw ee n w h ite s an d blacks.*1 A p la u s ib le e x p la
n atio n is th at w h ites resen t b lack s, w h o are in fa c t g e ttin g a large e d g e

in th e a d m issio n s p ro cess an d o fte n in s c h o la r s h ip a ssista n c e and m an y
of w hom , as w h ites look aroun d their o w n c a m p u s and oth ers, d o n t
belon g th ere" acad em ically . S o m e w h ites b e g in to a c t o u r these r e s e n t
m en ts. B lac k s p e rc e iv e th e sam e d isp ro p o r tio n s a n d resen tm en ts, th e n
co n c lu d e th at rhe c o lle g e e n v iro n m e n t is h o s t ile to them .
W e w ill n o t pursue this line o f a rg u m e n t. R a th e r , we refer our r e a d
ers to a grow in g literatu re by b lack sc h o la rs w h o h a v e cou ch ed it in th e
c o n te x t o f th eir ow n e x p e r i e n c e . I t is p la in t h a t a ffirm a tiv e a c tio n fo s
ters d ifferen ces in th e d istrib u tio n of a c a d e m ic a b ility across races in th e
c o m m u n ities o n co lleg e cam p u ses. S tu d e n ts a re n o t im ag in in g th ese d if
ferences.
B l a c k D r o p o u t R a t e s . T h e h igh b lac k d r o p o u t rate s from co lleg e are

also easier ro u n d erstan d in th e ligh t o f th e fig u re ab o v e . Typically, th e
b lack d rop ou t rate from u n iversities in th e la s t d e c a d e h a s run at a b o u t
tw ice the w hite rare.171 T h is was also tru e o f rh e N L S Y . O f all those w h o
ever en tered a four-year in stitu tio n , 6 3 p e r c e n t ot w h ites h ad g o tte n a
b a ch e lo rs d eg ree by 1990 (w h en the y o u n g e st re a c h e d 2 6 ) c o m p are d to
only 34 p e rc e n t of b lack s. But th e d isc r e p a n c y is n o t m ysterious. T h e
tirsr and d o m in a n t e x p la n a tio n o f h ig h e r b la c k d ro p o u t rates is c o g n i
tive ability. C o n tr o llin g for age and IQ , th e b la c k and w hite d ro p o u t
rates con v erge. G iv e n the av erage IQ o f th o se w h o en tered four-year in
stitu tio n s (a b o u t 110 ), th e ex p ected p r o b a b ilit y th a t a y outh e n te rin g a
four-year c o lle g e w ould grad u ate was 5 9 p e r c e n t fo r b lack s and 61 p e r
cent for w h ites, a triv ial d ifferen ce.|w|
B ut w h ereas c o g n itiv e ab ility e x p la in s m o st of th e d ifferen ce in
dropout rates, it m ay nor e x p la in e v e ry th in g . In p articu lar, the N L S Y
d ata reflect th e o v erall ex p erien ce o f b la c k s a n d w h ites, ign orin g th e
e x p erien ce at sp e c ific co lleg es as we d e sc r ib e d it earlier. Let us c o n sid e r
M IT , for w h ich d ro p o u t rates by race h a v e a ls o b e e n reported. In 1 9 8 5 ,
rhe av erage S A T -M a th score for a b la c k m a le a c c e p te d at M IT w as
6 5 9 , a score th a t p u t h im ab o v e th e 9 0 th p e rc e n tile of all stu d e n ts
tak in g th e S A T hut below the 2 5th c e n tile o f a ll stu d e n ts at M IT .'' T h e
d rop ou t rare for b lack stu d en ts at M IT in rh e m id - 19 8 0 s w as 24 p e rc e n t,
co m p ared to 14 p e rc e n t for w h ites.40 E v e n if th e av erag e M IT b la c k
fresh m an in 1985 could in deed do rh e w o rk rh e re in som e o b je c tiv e
sen se, g e ttin g d isc o u ra g ed ab ou t o n e s c a p a c ity to c o m p e te in an e n v i
ron m en t m ay b e a n o th e r co st o f a ffirm a tiv e a c t io n , a p h e n o m e n o n th a t
h a s b e e n d escrib ed a n e c d o ta lly by a n u m b er o f o b serv ers, b la c k a n d

w h ite alik e .41
T h e P o p u latio n s E y e V iew o f People with C ollege D egrees
T h e o th e r v a n ta g e p o in t to tak e in to a c c o u n t is th e view o f th e p u b lic

tow ard m in o rity a n d w h ite c o lle g e g rad u ates. T h e c o lle g e d eg ree w h at
it is a n d w h ere you g o t it p a c k s a lo t o f in fo rm a tio n in to d a y s A m e r-
ica, n o t ju st as a c re d e n tia l th a t em p lo y ers e v a lu a te in h irin g b u t as a
b ro a d so c ia l sig n al. O n e m ay la m e n t th is (p e o p le o u g h t to b e ju d g e d o n
th e ir ow n m erits, n o t by w here th ey w en t to sc h o o l), b u t it also h a s a
p o sitiv e sid e. H isto rically , th a t little se n te n c e , I h a v e a [solid degree]
fro m [a w ell-regard ed u n iv ersity ], jo lte d you lo o se from an y n u m b e r o f
ste re o ty p e s th a t th e p e rso n you e n c o u n te re d m ig h t h a v e h a d o f you.
T h e re a so n it d id so w as th a t a w ell-regard ed c o lle g e h a d a c e rta in set
o f stan d a rd s, an d its g rad u ate s p resu m ab ly m e t th o se stan d a rd s. N o m a t
ter w h at o n e s view is o f c r e d e n tia lin g in theory, th e g re a te st b e n e fi
c ia rie s o f c re d e n tia lin g are th o se w h o are su b je c t to n e g a tiv e stereo ty p es.
O n e o f th e g re at losses o f p re fe re n tial affirm ativ e a c tio n h a s b e e n to d i
lu te th e effects o f th e u n iv ersity c re d e n tia l for so m e m in o ritie s. T o d ay
th e sam e d egree fro m th e sam e u n iv ersity is p e rc e iv e d d ifferen tly if you
h a v e a b la c k fac e or a w h ite on e. T h is is n o t a m isgu id e d p re ju d ic e th a t
w ill b e c h a n g e d if on ly p e o p le are g iv e n m ore a c c u rate in fo rm a tio n
ab o u t h o w affirm a tiv e a c tio n really w orks. O n th e contrary, m ore a c c u
ra te in fo rm a tio n a b o u t h o w a ffirm a tiv e a c tio n really w orks c o n firm s
su c h p e rc e p tio n s.
T h is u n h a p p y reality is un n ecessary. T h e re is n o re a so n th a t m in o r
ity g rad u ates fro m an y g iv e n c o lle g e h a v e to b e an y d iffere n t from w h ite
c o lle g e g rad u ates in th eir ab ility o r ac c o m p lish m e n ts. R e sto rin g th e
v a lu e o f th e c re d e n tia l is easy: U s e u n ifo rm p ro ced u re s for se le ctin g ,
g rad in g , a n d g ra n tin g d eg rees to u n d erg rad u ates. S o m e d iffe re n ce in th e
c o g n itiv e d istrib u tio n s a m o n g c o lle g e g rad u ates w ou ld still re m ain , b e
c au se e v e n if in d iv id u a l sc h o o ls w ere to tre a t a p p lic a n ts an d stu d e n ts
w ith o u t regard to race, we c o u ld e x p e c t so m e c o g n itiv e d iffe re n ce in th e
n a tio n a l d istrib u tio n s o f grad u ate s (sin c e a grou p w ith d isp ro p o r tio n
a te ly few er h ig h -sc o rin g stu d e n ts w o u ld p ro b a b ly g ra v ita te to less c o m
p e titiv e sc h o o ls; th ey w ou ld g rad u ate, b u t n o n e th e le ss h a v e low er m e a n
a b ility ). B u t w ith in sc h o o ls, th e grou p d ifferen ces c o u ld b e as c lo se to
zero as th e in stitu tio n c h o o se s to get. A m e r ic a s u n iv e rsitie s are in ste ad
p e rp e tu a tin g in th e ran k s o f th e ir g rad u ates th e sam e g ap in c o g n itiv e
ab ility th a t sep arate s b lac k s a n d L a tin o s from w h ites in th e g e n e ra l p o p

u la tio n . A s we saw in th e d a ta o n law a n d m e d ic a l sc h o o ls, th e re is n o
re a so n to th in k th a t th e g ap sh rin k s as p e o p le m o v e fu rth er u p th e e d
u c a tio n a l ladder, an d so m e re a so n to th in k it c o n tin u e s to grow.
S o m e w ill argu e th e g ap in ab ility is a n a c c e p ta b le p rice to p ay for
th e o th e r g o o d th in g s th a t are su p p o se d to be ac c o m p lish e d by ag g re s
siv e a ffirm a tiv e a c tio n . O u r ju d g m e n t, in c o n trast, is th a t in try in g to
b u ild a so c ie ty w here e th n ic ity n o lo n g er m atte rs in th e im p o rta n t
e v e n ts in life, it is cru cially im p o rta n t th a t so c ie ty s p re stig io u s lab els
h a v e th e sam e or as c lo se to th e sam e m e a n in g as p o ssib le for d ifferen t
e th n ic groups. In th e c ase o f o n e o f th e se key lab els th e e d u c a tio n a l
d egree p o lic y m ak ers, aid e d an d ab e tte d by th e u n iv e rsitie s, h a v e p re
v e n te d th is from h a p p e n in g .
W e w ill trac e so m e o f th e c o n se q u e n c e s in th e n e x t ch ap ter, w h en
we tu rn to a ffirm a tiv e a c tio n in th e w o rk p lace an d p re se n t a t m ore
le n g th o u r a sse ssm e n t o f h o w th e d o u b le sta n d a rd e m b e d d e d in affir
m a tiv e a c tio n affects society. F o r now , w e w ill o b serv e o n ly th a t th e seed s
o f th e c o n se q u e n c e s in th e w o rk p lace an d b ey o n d are sow n in c o lleg e s
an d u n iv e rsitie s. T o a n tic ip a te o u r larger c o n c lu sio n , affirm a tiv e a c tio n
as it is b e in g p ra c tic e d is a grav e error.
W e urge th a t affirm a tiv e a c tio n in th e u n iv e rsitie s b e rad ica lly m o d i

fied, retu rn in g to th e o rig in a l c o n c e p tio n . U n iv e rsitie s sh o u ld c a st a
w ide n e t in se e k in g a p p lic a n ts, m ak in g sp e c ial efforts to se e k ta le n t
w h erev er it liv es in th e b la c k S o u th B ro n x , L a tin o L o s A n g e le s, an d
w h ite A p p a la c h ia alik e. In th e c ase o f tw o c a n d id a te s w h o are fairly
clo sely m a tc h e d oth erw ise, u n iv e rsitie s sh o u ld g iv e th e n o d to th e a p
p lic a n t from th e d isa d v a n ta g e d b ack g ro u n d . T h is o rig in a l se n se o f a f
firm a tiv e a c tio n seem s to u s to h a v e b e e n n o t o n ly re a so n a b le a n d fair
bu t w ise.
W h a t d oes clo sely m a tc h e d m e a n in term s o f te st sco res? W e h a v e
n o firm rules, bu t as a g u id e lin e , a d m issio n s officers m ig h t aim for a n a d
m issio n s p o lic y su ch th a t n o id e n tifia b le grou p (su c h as a ra c ia l m in o r
ity) h a s a m e a n th a t is m ore th a n h a lf a sta n d a rd d e v ia tio n b elo w th e
rest o f th e stu d e n t bo d y .1421 T h is g u id e lin e is by n o m e an s d e m a n d in g .
In effect, it asks on ly th a t th e av erag e m in o rity stu d e n t is a t th e 3 0 th
c e n tile o f th e w h ite d istrib u tio n . P erh ap s e x p e rie n c e w ould p ro v e th a t
476 Living Together
th is is n o t clo sely m a tc h e d en o u g h . B u t a t le ast let us m o v e tow ard th a t

stan d a rd a n d see h ow it w orks. T h e p re se n t situ a tio n , w ith b la c k stu
d e n ts av e rag in g w ell o v e r a full sta n d a rd d e v ia tio n b e lo w th e w h ite
m e a n , so m e tim e s a p p ro a c h in g tw o stan d a rd d e v ia tio n s, is so far o u t o f
lin e w ith an y p la u sib le ra tio n a le th a t u n iv e rsitie s to d ay c a n n o t p u b lish
th e d a ta o n th eir a d m itte d stu d e n ts a n d h o p e to p ersu ad e th e p u b lic (or
sp e c ia lists in e d u c a tio n ) th a t th eir p o lic ie s are reaso n ab le .
W o u ld a n en d to ag gressiv e a ffirm a tiv e a c tio n m e a n th a t m in o ritie s
w h o c a n p ro fit from a g e n u in e c o lle g e e d u c a tio n w ill fin d th e d o o r o f
o p p o rtu n ity c lo sed to th e m ? T h e re is n o re a so n to th in k so. O n th e c o n
trary, we u rge th a t p e o p le e x a m in e m o re clo sely a n ig n o red , b rie f era in
A m e r ic a n u n iv ersity life fro m th e m id -1 9 5 0 s to th e m id -1 9 6 0 s. S i
m u ltan eou sly , th e c iv il righ ts m o v e m e n t w as g a in in g m o m e n tu m , w h ite
u p p er-m id d le-class A m e r ic a w as h a v in g its c o n sc io u sn e ss raise d o n th e
su b je c t o f ra c ia l d isc rim in a tio n , a n d c o lo r-b lin d n ess w as a c tiv e ly ta k e n
as th e id eal. A t m an y c o lle g e s d u rin g th a t era, a p p lic a n ts w ere fo rb id
d e n to e n c lo se a p h o to g ra p h an d in stru c te d to a v o id an y in fo rm a tio n in
th e essay th a t m ig h t h e lp id en tify th e ir rac e or relig io n . W h e th e r a d
m issio n s c o m m itte e s w ere truly in n o c e n t o f th is in fo rm a tio n is a n o th e r
q u e stio n , b u t th e in te n t w as clear, a n d so w as th e result: R a c ia l d iffer
e n c e s in q u a lific a tio n s d u rin g th a t tim e w ere m inor, or so it ap p e are d to
b o th o f us a t th e tim e.
W h a t w ere c am p u s rac e re la tio n s lik e th en ? W h a t w ere th e attitu d e s
o f th e b la c k stu d en ts tow ard a c h ie v e m e n t? W h a t w as th e p e rfo rm an c e
o f b la c k stu d e n ts re la tiv e to th e p re d ic tio n s th a t m ig h t h a v e b e e n m ad e
b a se d o n th eir h ig h sc h o o l p e rfo rm an c e ? W h a t w ere th e d ro p o u t rate s
o f b lac k s re la tiv e to w h ites in th e sam e in stitu tio n ? W h a t w ere th e su b
se q u e n t careers o f b la c k stu d e n ts fro m th a t era? H ow d o b la c k stu d e n ts
fro m th a t era, lo o k in g b a c k , assess th e p lu ses an d m in u ses o f th e cu rren t
sta te o f affairs versu s th eir e x p e rie n ce ?
W e m u st p u t su c h to p ic s as q u e stio n s b e c au se th a t era h a s b e e n ig
n o re d . W e su gg est th is p o ssib ility : A m e r ic a n u n iv e rsitie s o n c e a p
p ro a c h e d th e id eal in th eir h a n d lin g o f rac e o n th e c am p u s, a n d th ere
is n o re a so n w hy th ey c o u ld n o t d o so ag ain .
Few er b la c k s w ould b e a t B erk eley or Y ale if th ere w ere n o affirm a
tiv e a c tio n . B u t ad m ittin g h a lf as m an y b la c k stu d e n ts to Y ale d o e s n o t
m e a n th a t th e re je c te d o n es w ill n o t go to c o lle g e ; it ju st m e an s th a t
th ey w ill n o t go to Y ale. F o r so m e in d iv id u a ls w h o are n o t c h o se n , th is
w ill b e a loss, for oth e rs a b lessin g , b u t it is a far d ifferen t c h o ic e from
c o lle g e v ersu s n o c o lle g e . It is n o t e v e n c le a r h ow m u c h th e g o a ls o f

d iv ersity w ould b e ad v ersely a ffec ted for th e sy stem as a w h ole. If a ffir
m ativ e a c tio n in its p re se n t form w ere e n d ed , th e sc h o o ls a t th e very
top w ould h a v e sm alle r n u m b ers o f b lac k s a n d so m e o th e r m in o ritie s on
th eir c am p u ses, b u t m an y o th e r sc h o o ls in th e n e x t e c h e lo n s w ou ld add
th o se stu d en ts, e v e n as th ey lo st so m e o f th eir form er stu d e n ts to sc h o o ls
fu rth er d ow n th e lin e. A n d a t every le v e l o f sc h o o l, th e g ap in c o g n i
tiv e ab ility b etw een m in o rities a n d w h ites w ould sh rin k .
E n d in g a ffirm a tiv e a c tio n as it is cu rren tly p ra c tic e d w ill surely h a v e
o th e r effects. A ffirm a tiv e a c tio n d oes in fa c t b rin g a sig n ific a n t n u m b e r
o f m in o rity stu d en ts o n to c am p u se s w h o w ou ld n o t oth e rw ise b e th ere.
P e rh ap s th e o v e rall p e rc e n ta g e o f som e m in o ritie s w ho a tte n d c o lle g e
w ould d rop . B u t th eir w h ite c o u n te rp a rts a t th e sam e le v e l o f ab ility an d
sim ilar so c io e c o n o m ic b a ck g ro u n d are n o t in c o lle g e now. T o w h at e x
te n t is a so c iety fair w h en p e o p le o f sim ila r ab ility an d b a ck g ro u n d are
tre a te d as d ifferen tly as th ey are n ow ? In 1 9 6 4 , th e an sw er w ou ld h av e
b e e n u n am b igu o u s: S u c h a so c ie ty is m an ifestly unfair. T h e lo g ic w as
righ t th e n , an d righ t now.
Chapter 20
Affirmative Action in the

Workplace
Employers w ant to hire the best workers; em ploym ent tests are one of the best
and cheapest selection tools at their disposal. Since affirmative action began
in the early 1 9 6 0 s, arid especially since a landm ark decision by the Supreme
C ourt in 1971, employers have been tightly constrained in the use they may
make of tests. The most common solution is fo r employers to use them but to
hire enough protected minorities to protect themselves from prosecution and
lawsuits w ider the job discrimination rules.
The rules that constrain employers were developed by Congress and the
Supreme C o u rt based on the assum ptions that tests o f general cognitive abil
ity are not a good way of picking em ployees, that the best tests are ones that
measure specific jo b skills, that tests are biased against blacks and other mi
norities , and that all groups have equal distributions o f cognitive ability. These
assum ptions are empirically incorrect. Paradoxically, job hiring and promo
tion procedures that are truly fair and unbiased will produce the racial dis
parities that public policy tries to prevent.
Huve the job discrimination regulations worked? The scholarly consensus
is that they had som e im pact, on some kinds o f jo b s, in some settings, during
the 1960s and into the 1970s, but have not had the decisive impact that is
commonly asserted in political rhetoric. It also appears, however, that since
the early 1 96Os blacks have been overrepresented in white collar and profes
sional occupations relative to the num ber o f candidates in the IQ range from
which these jobs are usually filled, suggesting that the effects of affirmative ac
tion policy m ay be greater than usually thought.
The successes o f affirmative action have been much more extensively stud
ied than the costs. O ne of the most understudied areas of this topic is job per
form ance. The scattered data suggest that aggressive affirmative action does
produce large racial discrepancies in job perform ance in a given workplace. It
is time that this im portant area be explored system atically.
480 Living Together
In com ing to grips with policy, a few hard truths have to he accepted. First,
there are no good ways to implement current job discrimination law without
incurring costs in economic efficiency and fairness to both employers and em-
ployees. Secorid, after controlling for IQ , it is hard to demonstrate that the
U nited S tates still suffers from a m ajor problem of racial discrimination in oc
cupations an d pay.
A s we did fo r affirmative action in higher education, we present the case
fo r returning to the original conception of affirmative action. This means
scrapping the existing edifice o f job discrimination law. We think the benefits
to productivity and to fairness of ending the antidiscrimination laws are su b
stan tial. B u t our larger reason is that this nation does not have the option of
ethnic balkanization.
ffirm a tiv e action in the w orkplace arose at the sam e tim e th at ir

d id in th e universities hut with im p ortan t d ifferen ces. O n e d iffer'
e n c e is th a t in th e w orkplace, the go v ern m en t and the c o u rts h av e h een
th e m ain a c tiv ists, forcing bu sin esses in to a variety of in v o lu n tary p ra c
tices, w h e re a s un iversities and co lleg es largely create th eir ow n p o lic ie s
re g ard in g stu d e n t selection . A ffirm ativ e ac tio n p olicies in th e w ork
p la ce h a v e b e e n m ore a m atter o f ev o lu tio n th an of c o h e re n t policy-
m ak in g . (A p p e n d ix 7 traces this ev o lu tio n .) U n iv e rsitie s an d co lle g e s
o c c a s io n a lly run afoul of affirm ativ e ac tio n laws in th eir h irin g an d p ro
m o tio n d e c isio n s, but in stu d en t ad m issio n s they are usually far ah ead
o f w h at h a s b een legally required o f them .
A se c o n d im p o rtan t d ifferen ce is th at alm o st every on e h a s a p erso n al
stak e , a n d c a n see w hat is go in g on , in th e w ork place, u n lik e o n c a m
pus. In c o lle g e s, the a p p lic a n t w ho d oes n o t get in b ecau se he w as d is
p la ce d by a n affirm ative a c tio n ad m ission never know s e x a c tly why he
w as re je c te d . In m any w ork places, in dividu als can identify oth e rs w ho
are h ired, fired, and prom oted under the aegis o f affirm ativ e a c tio n , and
th ey ten d to h a v e strong o p in io n s ab ou t th e m erits o f e ac h case. In m any
w o rk p la c e s, affirm ativ e a c tio n d ec isio n s regard in g a few p e o p le c an a f
fect th e d aily life of tens or h u n d red s o f p eop le w ho work w ith th em and
u n d er th e m . C o lle g e and university ad m ission d ec isio n s h av e less o b v i
ou s im m e d ia te effects. T h e se m ay be som e o f the reaso n s th at few, if any,
p o in ts of fric tio n in A m e ric an society h av e been rubbed so raw as w here
a ffirm a tiv e a c tio n op erates in the w orkplace. T h e to p ic in fla m e s re la
tio n s b e tw e e n w hite elites (w h o generally favor the D olicies) an d w h ite
Affirmative Action in the Workplace 481
w orkers (m an y o f w h om feel v ic tim iz e d b y th e m ), b etw een e th n ic

groups, b etw een th e sex es, an d b e tw e e n m a n y citizen s and their g o v
ern m en t.
T h e c h a p te r is organized around s e v e r a l fa c tu a l q u e stio n s regard in g
affirm ativ e a c tio n in th e w ork place. W e sta r t w ith rhe facts b ecau se th e y
are p iv o tal to th e argu m en ts ab o u t a ffir m a tiv e a c tio n yet are often o v e r
looked or m isc o n stru ed . First, w hat are A m e r ic a s affirm ativ e a c tio n
p o licies? S e c o n d , d o they m ake sen se, g iv e n th e re le v a n t data? T h ird ,
w hat d ifferen ce h av e they m ad e? A fte r re v ie w in g th e d ata o n th ese is
sues, we turn to so m e b ro ad er q u e stio n s th a t th e fa c ts raise but c a n n o t
alto g eth e r reso lv e. H o w sh ou ld we th in k a b o u t the eco n o m ic c o sts o f
affirm ativ e a c tio n in th e w ork place? A s s u m in g th ar ju s t ab o u t e v ery o n e
w an ts em p lo y m e n t to be fair, w hat sh o u ld fa ir n e s s m ean in the lab o r
m arket?
T h ro u g h o u t, we c o n c e n tra te on th e s it u a tio n regard in g blacks. A f
firm ative a c tio n h as e x p an d e d to e m b r a c e m a n y o th e r groups, but th is
policy cam e a b o u t b ecau se o f an u rg en tly fe lt n a tio n a l desire to red ress
the p ligh t of b lac k s, an d th e focal p o in t o f te n sio n , in te lle c tu al an d s o
cial, has b een a ffirm a tiv e ac tio n for b la c k s e v e r sin ce . M an y of the p o in ts
we m ake ab o u t th at story apply w ith m o d ific a tio n s to o th e r grou p s as
w ell. O ur p o licy re c o m m e n d a tio n s a ls o a p p ly generally.
T H E F E D E R A L G O V E R N M E N T S R E Q U I R E M E N T S F O R
A F F IR M A T IV E A C T I O N IN T H E W O R K P L A C E
P eople apply for jo b s. T h e em ployer h ire s s o m e and n o t oth ers. L ater th e

em ployer p ro m o te s som e and n o t o th e rs. A n em p lo y er w ho ap p ears to
h av e b ased h irin g or p ro m o tio n d e c isio n s o n th e p e rso n s b ein g w hite (o r
on e o f the o th e r o u tlaw ed reaso n s) is in v io la t io n o f th e law. A pure h e a r t
and good faith are n o t en o u gh . If a r e je c te d a p p lic a n t or an u n p ro m o te d
em ployee brin gs a c o m p la in t, an e m p lo y e r m u s t be ab le to prove th a t th e
h irin g and p ro m o tio n processes m eet le g a l d e fin itio n s o f fairness.
For som e p o sitio n s, em ployers m ay p o st jo b re q u irem e n ts and d e m o n
strate th at th e h ired or p rom oted e m p lo y e e s h a d th e b est q u a lific a tio n s.
But m any jo b s d o n o t lend th e m se lv e s to s u c h case -b y -case se le c tio n .
In th ese c ases, h ow d oes th e em p lo y er d e m o n s tr a te th a t th e c h o se n e m
ployees h a v e b e e n selected w ith ou t ille g a l d is c r im in a tio n ? T h e o b v io u s
answ er (o r so it seem ed in the b e g in n in g ) is t o use a n o b je c tiv e jo b te st
and hire a p p lic a n ts w ith the h ig h e st sc o re s. T e stin g h as th erefore b e e n
482 Living Together
a t th e c e n te r of th e history o f em p loy m en t d isc rim in atio n law, as it h as

p la y e d out fro m th e C iv il R ig h ts A c t of 1964 to the C iv il R ig h ts A c t o f
1 9 9 1 . H ere are so m e features o f the p rev ailin g situ atio n fac in g e m p lo y '
ers, w ith v a r ia tio n s and an in terlu de described in th e a p p e n d ix , sin ce
th e S u p re m e C o u r t s lan d m ark Griggs v. Duke Power C o . d e c isio n in
1971:
If an e m p lo y e r uses a test in the em p loy m en t process an d the results
of th a t test le a d to differen t results for d ifferen t p rotected grou p s (m ain ly
b la c k s , L a tin o s, an d w om en) th at em ployer faces the p ro sp e ct o f law
su its, fines, a n d d am ag es th at could cost the co m p an y m illio n s p er
h a p s tens o f m illio n s of d ollars. Em ployers c an p ro tect th em se lv e s in
th re e ways.
First, they m ay d eclin e to use tests. N ev erth ele ss, they will still be
v u ln erab le if th eir altern a tiv e hiring process has d isp arate im p act (th e
le g a l p h rase ) o n th e hiring of d ifferen t groups.
S e c o n d , th ey c a n try to c o n stru c t a test th at h as an u rgen t e c o n o m ic
ju s tific a tio n an d a m an ifest, d irect relatio n sh ip w ith th e sk ills requ ired
by th e job. A g en era l ability test is alw ays u n accep tab le . U su ally off-th e-
s h e lf tests o f an y kin d will also be foun d u n ac c ep tab le u n til they are v a l
id ate d for th e p a rticu lar jo b in q u estio n
T h ird , a n em p lo y er m ay m eet th e 80 p ercen t rule. C re a te d as p art
o f fed eral g u id e lin e s issued in 1978, the 8 0 p ercen t rule says in effect
th a t p eop le in th e p rotected groups h av e to be hired or p ro m o ted at 8 0
p e rc e n t or m o re o f the rate en joyed by th e group with the h ig h e st rate
o f su ccess in b e in g hired or prom oted . H ere is how it w orks in p rac tic e :
S u p p o se th a t th e A cm e C o rp o ra tio n uses a test for all its jo b a p p li
c a n ts. Let us say th a t 225 w hite m ales apply and 9 0 are hired. T h is h ir
in g rate of 4 0 p e rc e n t is th e ben ch m ark again st w hich th e h irin g o f
o th e r group s is m easured. A ll o th er groups m ust be h ired at a rate n o
lo w er th an 8 0 p e rc en t o f th e 40 p ercen t h irin g rate o f w h ite m ales,
w h ich c o m e s to 32 p ercen t. If 150 w hite w om en apply an d 5 0 are
h ire d 33 p e r c e n t A c m e m eets rhe hiring rate for w om en . S u p p o se
th a t 100 L a tin o s apply an d 25 are hired. N o w A cm e is v u ln e ra b le to
d isc r im in a tio n su its by th e rejected L atin o a p p lic a n ts b e c au se its
h ir in g rate fo r L a tin o s is 25 p ercen t, not 32 p ercen t. It sh ou ld h ire at
le a st seven m o re L atin o s, b rin gin g the L atin o p e rc e n tag e up to the
n e e d e d 32.1,1
N o t e th a t w e h a v e said n o th in g about how th e test w as used o r even
what: the c o m p a r a tiv e scores were. W ith th e 80 p erce n t rule, th o se c o n
Affirmative Action in die Workplace 483
sid eratio n s are irrelev an t. It m ak es n o d iffe r e n c e if th e rejected m ale ap

p lican ts had sc o re s th a t were tw ice th o se o f th e su ccessfu l w o m en a p
p lican ts: A ll th at m atters is th e b o tto m lin e : th e 8 0 p ercen t criterion .
Less th an 8 0 p e rc e n t, and A c m e is in tr o u b le ; m ore th an 8 0 p ercen t,
and th e g o v e rn m e n t will p robably le a v e A c m e a lo n e . Ju st p robably ,
how ever. T h e 8 0 p erc en t rule is a g u id e lin e , n o t a law, and th e re is no
g u aran tee th at m e e tin g it will h ead o ff l it ig a t io n .1"1
SO M E F A L SE F A C T U A L A S S U M P T IO N S B E H I N D E M P L O Y M E N T
T E S T IN G PO L IC Y
Federal a ffirm a tiv e a c tio n p olicy tow ard e m p lo y m e n t te stin g is laden

with assu m p tio n s n o t ab ou t fairn ess b u t a b o u t w h at is true a s a factual
m atter. S p e cific ally , C o n g re ss an d th e S u p r e m e C o u r t d e v e lo p e d fe d
eral jo b d isc rim in a tio n policy o n the a ssu m p tio n s th a t (1 ) te sts of g e n
eral c o g n itiv e ab ility are n o t a good w ay o f p ic k in g em p lo y e e s, (2 ) the
best tests are o n e s th at m easure sp ec ific jo b sk ills, (3 ) tests are biased
again st b lac k s a n d o th e r m in o rities, a n d ( 4 ) all grou p s h av e eq u al d is
tribution s of c o g n itiv e ability.
T o varying d eg rees, th ese a ssu m p tio n s w ere d e fen sib le w h en they
were first v o ic e d in th e 1960s. E th n ic d iffe r e n c e s in test sc o re s were
know n to exist, bu t m any exp erts at th a t tim e still th o u g h t th ey reflected
test bias, or th at th e d ifferen ces would m e lt aw ay as e d u c a tio n a l o p p o r
tunity for m in o ritie s im p roved. T h e p r e d ic tiv e v a lid ity o f te s ts for jo b
p erform an ce w as poorly u n d erstoo d . B u t h o w e v e r u n d e rstan d a b le these
view s w ere in th e 1960s, p u blic p olicy o v e r th e n e x t tw enty years su f
fered from an in creasin gly severe case o t p sy c h o m e tric lag. T o su m m a
rize the by-now solid ly estab lish ed e m p ir ic a l situ a tio n d e scrib ed in
C h ap te rs 3 an d 13:
C o g n itiv e ab ility h as a n e c o n o m ic a lly im p o rta n t re latio n sh ip to

jo b p ro d u c tiv ity th at ap p lies a c ro ss th e ran g e o f job s an d th e range
o f ab ilities.
C o g n itiv e ab ility tests are often th e sin g le m o st p re d ic tiv e m eth od
o f p ic k in g em p lo y ees m ore p r e d ic tiv e th a n grad es, e d u c a tio n , or
a jo b interview .
T h e p re d ic tiv e pow er o f tests d e riv e s a lm o s t c o m p le te ly from th eir
m easure of gen eral co g n itiv e ab ility , n o r m easu res o f jo b -sp e cific
skills.
C o g n it iv e ab ility tests eith er are n o t biased ag ain st b lac k s as pre-

d ic to r s o f jo b perform an ce, or in som e cases are biased in fav o r of
b la c k s.
D iffe re n t e th n ic groups h av e su bstan tially d ifferen t d istrib u tio n s
o f c o g n itiv e ab ility th a t are n ot e x p la in a b le by c u ltu ral b ias and
n o t e asily altered by rem edial steps.
W h a t is tru e regard in g jo b s, IQ , and group d ifferen ces in c o g n itiv e

ab ility is th e o p p o site of w hat the courts, the C o n gre ss, an d m any orb-
ers h a v e su p p o se d th e truth to be. T h e d ilem m a is th at jo b h irin g an d
p ro m o tio n p ro c e d u re s th at are truly fair and un biased in the sen se in
w hich e v e ry o n e used those term s in 1964 will prod u ce th e e th n ic and
group d isp a r itie s th a t public policy so vigorously tries to p rev en t. T h e
m ost v a lid h irin g tests m ay h av e th e largest d isp arate im p act. A s a first
step in c o in in g to term s w ith affirm ativ e a c tio n h ow ev er o n e b a la n c e s
the m an y o th e r facto rs th at m ake affirm ative actio n d esira b le o r u n d e
sirable th e g o v e rn m e n t sh ou ld scrap the in valid sc ie n tific a ssu m p tio n s
th at u n d erg ird p o lic y and exp ress policy in term s th at are em pirically
d efen sib le.
T h is ste p n eed n o t m ean scrap p in g affirm ativ e a c tio n . It m ean s
only d isc a rd in g rh eto ric ab ou t testin g an d affirm ativ e a c tio n ( tests
aren t v a lid for m in o ritie s, tests o f gen eral ability d o n t p red ict a n y
th in g w o rth k n o w in g ab ou t jo b p erform an ce ) th at are n o t true
and in ste a d d e fe n d in g affirm ativ e actio n on w h atever grou n d s c an
be a u th e n tic a lly d efen d ed . S o m e progress h as been m ade o n th is front.
T h e H a r tig a n C o m m itte e s report on the G e n e ral A p titu d e Test
B a tte r y 1 w as a ste p in th e right d irection , for e x a m p le , a c k n o w
led g in g m an y o f th e key facts ab ou t tests w hile c o n tin u in g to d efen d
a ffirm a tiv e a c tio n (th o u g h the b asis for their d efen se is in itse lf open
to te c h n ic a l d e b a te ). A few o th er p ro p o n en ts o f stro n g affirm ativ e
a c tio n are b e c o m in g m ore forth righ t ab ou t w hat they are really
p ro m o tin g n o t ju st equal op p ortu n ity but equal e m p lo y m e n t o u t
c o m es d e sp ite u n eq u al jo b p erfo rm an ce.4 B u t these are e x c e p tio n s to a
gen eral p u b lic d isc u ssio n o f affirm ativ e a c tio n th a t relies o n in ac c u rate
and to so m e d e g re e d ish o n est rep resen tatio n s o f the state o f k n o w led ge
ab ou t te sts, em p lo y m e n t, an d co m p e titio n am o n g p ro te c te d an d u n
p ro te c te d g ro u p s.
H A S A F F IR M A T IV E A C T IO N W O R K E D ?
T h e sc h o larly d e b a te ov er the e ffe c ts o f a n t id is c r im in a tio n le g is la tio n

in th e w ork p lace has b een lively, an d th is is a g o o d tim e to su m m arize
w here that d e b a te stan d s. T h e an sw e rs are c o m p lic a te d , bu t s c h o la r s
h ave d on e m u ch b ette r th an th e p u b lic c o m m e n t a to r s o n th is sc o re .
Version I: Ignoring C ognitive A bility
A c c o rd in g to o ffic ial statistics, w ages for b la c k s h a v e risen sin c e th e

1960s and m ore b la c k s h av e en tered p r e s tig io u s o c c u p a tio n s. M o st p e o
ple lak e for g ran ted th at th ese c h a n g e s h a v e h a p p e n e d ro so m e im p o r
tan t d egree b ec au se o f a n tid isc r im in a tio n law s. B u t w h at m ay se e m
ob v io u s at first g la n c e is n ot o b v io u s u p o n fu rth e r in sp e c tio n . T w o
d ecad es of research h av e failed to p ro d u c e p r o fe s s io n a l c o n se n su s o n th e
c o n trib u tio n of fed eral g o v ern m en t c iv il r ig h ts a c tiv ity to th e e c o n o m ic
progress of b lack A m e ric a n s, w rote e c o n o m is t s Ja m e s H e c k m a n a n d
Brook P ayn er in 1989," and the situ a tio n h a s c la rifie d on ly m a rg in a lly
sin ce th en. T h e n atu re o f th e p ro b le m f a c in g th e a n a ly sts is illu stra te d
by th e figure below for two c ate g o rie s of w h ite - c o lla r jo b s th a t affirm a -
T h e u n c e r ta in e ffe c ts o f a ffir m a tiv e a c t i o n in th e w o r k p la c e
Percentage o f em ployed b lack s

G riK R S
25 -
1964 C iv il decision U niform
Rights Act is handed G u id elin es
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics 1983, 1989; U .S . D e p artm e n t ot Labor 1991. Figures prior
ro 197 5, reported tor blacks and others, are ad ju sted p m -ra ta to th e black-only p o p u latio n .
486 Living Together
tive a c tio n was supposed to open up for b lack s.111T h e v ertical lin es d e
m arc ate three landm arks in an tid iscrim in atio n law. the p assag e ot the
C iv il R ig h ts A c t o f 1964 th at ou tlaw ed job d iscrim in atio n , rhe U rigg.s
d e c isio n th at put increased pressure on em ployers to hire rhe right n u m
ber o f m in o rities even if they were using co n sisten t hiring p rac tic e s, and
a d o p tio n o f the U niform G u id e lin e s on Em ployee S e le c tio n P rocedures
th a t estab lish ed the 80 percen t gu id elin e (all described furth er in A p
p e n d ix 7).
T o se e why the analysts h av e a com plicated task, c o n sid e r clerical
jo b s (th e gray line in the figure). T h e story here seem s o b v io u s: From
1959 u n til the passage ot th e C iv il R igh ts A ct, im p ro v e m en t w as slow.
Im m ed iately after the act cam e a sudden increase in the p e rc e n tag e of
em ploy ed blacks who held clerical jo b s; thereafter the p e rc e n tag e c o n
tin u ed rising but at a slow er rate. Furtherm ore, the gap b etw een b lack
and w h ite percentages for these job s (n ot show n in th is g rap h ) also
c lo sed again, faster for a w hile after 1964 th an before. W e m igh t c o n
clu d e th a t the C iv il R igh ts A c t itself was effective bur th at the tw o su b
se q u e n t landm arks in affirm ative actio n policy were n o t, at least tor
th ese jo b s.
N o w follow the black lin e in the ab ove figure, rep resen tin g p ro fe s
sio n al an d tech n ical jobs. Its slop e before 1964 was certain ly n o low er
th an its slope after; if anything, th e slope decreased after th e act. B lack s
w ere m ak in g progress before the act; afterw ard they w eren't progressin g
any fa ste r in their m ovem en t in to these h igh -statu s, h igh -p ay in g o c c u
p atio n s. T rendlines for oth er jo b categories, not show n in th e graph ,
th at w ere supposed to open up for blacks m an agerial an d ad m in istra
tive, sales, and craft w orkers sim ilarly fail to regisrer m uch ot a gain
from th e new policies. T h e clerical jo b category is the u n u su al ca.M.-; it
is th e only jo b category th at show s a visible ch an ge in slo p e after 1964-
If e v id e n c e of success is to be found for affirm ative a c tio n , it must be
d ise n tan g led from a web o f o th e r factors th at seem to h av e b een in flu
e n c in g th e em ploym ent of b lac k s.171
T h is is not to say that an tid isc rim in atio n law had no effe ct, on ly that
the e ffe c ts on hiring and p ro m o tio n are not sim ply d e m o n strate d . O u r
u n d e rstan d in g o f the im pact of affirm ative actio n p o lic ie s, draw n from
a n u m b er of tech n ical assessm en ts th at h av e not tak e n c o g n itiv e a b il
ity in to acco u n t, may be sum m arized as follow s:1
A ffirm a tiv e a c tio n p o licies h ad th e e x p e c te d effect in p u blic bu-

re au c ra cie s. P o lice and firefigh ters a re th e m ost c o n sp ic u o u s ex-
am p les, b u t affirm ativ e ac tio n also h as d e m o n strab ly in cre ase d the
p ro p o rtio n of m in o rities th ro u g h o u t g o v e rn m e n t b u re a u cra c ie s,
from the fe d e ral level on d ow n .'1A t th e fed eral level, th e stro n g est
e ffe c ts are a t th e clerical level an d below . In cities w ith large m i
n o rity p o p u la tio n s, the effects are sp re a d across a b ro ad er range o f
g o v e rn m e n t p o sitio n s, w ith de fa c to q u o ta s up to the h ig h e st lev
els.
A m o n g p riv a te c o m p a n ies, a ffirm a tiv e ac tio n h as h a d som e
effec ts, p articu larly in the S o u th an d a m o n g c o m p a n ie s th at do
b u sin ess w ith th e federal g o v e rn m e n t. S o m e u n k n o w n fraction
o f th e in cre ase in black em p lo y m e n t by com p an ies w ith g o v e rn
m e n t c o n tr a c ts is b alan ced off by c o m p e n sa tin g d e c lin e s in c o m
p an ies w ith o u t them .
In p riv ate in dustry in rhe S o u th (w h e re m uch o f the m o st d e m o n
strab le p ro g ress in p riv ate in dustry h as b een m ad e), a c o m p lic a te d
m ix o f fo rces seem s to have been at w ork : partly the C iv il R igh ts
A c t of 1 9 6 4 an d its afterm ath , partly th e repeal of Jim C ro w laws
re stric tin g jo b entry in to c ertain in d u strie s, partly a b ro a d e r b reak
d o w n o f ra c ia l segregatio n , legal an d o th e rw ise .10
W h a te v e r effects affirm ativ e a c tio n m ay have had d u rin g rhe
1 9 6 0 s an d 1970s, they had b eco m e t o o sm all to m easu re by the
198 0 s an d w ill probably c o n tin u e to b e sm all in the fu tu re, largely
for e c o n o m ic reasons.
T h e b e h a v io r of em ployers has c e rta in ly b een affected by jo b d is
c rim in a tio n law. Every large c o m p a n y m ust m ain tain a bu reau
cracy to m o n ito r co m p lian ce w ith fe d e ral re g u latio n s and to
d efen d ag a in st (or, com m only, se ttle o u r o f court) law su its a lle g
in g d isc rim in a tio n . T h e am o u n ts o f tim e , m oney, and re so u rc e s d e
v o ted to c o m p lia n c e are su b sta n tia l.
In sh o rt, fed eral a n tid isc rim in a tio n effo rts writ large e m b ra c in g all
th e d isp a ra te e v e n ts follow ing o n th e rise o f th e civil rights m o v e m e n t
in th e m id - 1950s- probably h ad a sig n ific a n t im p act on b lack e c o n o m ic
progress. Jo b d isc rim in a tio n law in p a rtic u la r p robably had a sm a lle r but
sig n ific a n t effect for som e b lack s in so m e se ttin g s. N o seriou s stu d e n t of
488 Living Together
th e to p ic a rg u es th at jo b d isc rim in atio n law h ad th e d e c isiv e im p ac t th at

is c o m m o n ly attrib u ted to it in p o litic a l rhetoric.
V ersion II: W hen Cognitive Ability Is T alien into A cco u n t
W e n o w p o se a q u estio n o f affirm ativ e a c tio n th a t h as n o t b e e n asked

in th e lite ra tu re we ju st review ed: H ow d o th e o b serv ed d iffe re n ce s b e
tw een b la c k s and w hites in o c c u p atio n s and w ages c o m p a re to th ose
th a t w ou ld b e p red icted from the ob served black -w h ite d iffe re n ce in the
d istr ib u tio n o f cogn itiv e ab ility? W e presen ted th e su m m ary an sw er as
o f th e en d o f th e 1980s in C h a p te r 14, w hen we show ed th at, after c o n
tro llin g for IQ , a high er p ro p o rtio n o f b lack s th an w h ites in th e N L S Y
are in th e p ro fessio n s and th at w ages for blacks an d w h ites are e sse n
tially e q u a l. N e ith e r e d u catio n n o r so c io e c o n o m ic b ack g ro u n d , a c
c o u n te d as w ell as IQ for th e d ifferen ces in jo b s or w ages b etw een b lack s
an d w h ites.
T h e s e fin d in g s may bear on the q u estio n o f the im p act o f affirm ativ e
a c tio n in th e w orkplace. T o see why, let us ex am in e th e m ean IQ s for
N L S Y m em b ers in different jo b c atego ries as o f 1990, as sh ow n in the
ta b le below . In all jo b catego ries, from h igh est to low est in sk ill, e m
p lo yers are h irin g blacks w ho differ from w hites in th o se jo b s by o n e or
m ore sta n d a rd d ev iatio n s in IQ . Part o f rhe reason m ay be th at e m
p lo yers h ire blacks and w hites o f d ifferin g co g n itiv e ab ility b ecau se o f
T h e B la c k - W h ite IQ D iffe re n c e by J o b C a te g o ry , 1 9 9 0
Black-W hite D ifference,

Jo b C ategory Mean W hite IQ in Standard D eviations
Professions 114 1.3
M a n a g e r ia l 108 1.1
T e c h n ic a l 113 1.5
S a le s 106 1.4
C le r ic a l 104 1.1
Protective services 103 1.4
O t h e r service jobs 97 1.4
C ra ft 99 1.1
Low-skill labor 96 1.1
the pressures b ro u g h t on th em by g o v e rn m e n t p o lic ie s regarding th e re p

re sen ta tio n of m in o rity groups. W ith o u r su c h pressu res and in a race-
blin d labor m ark et, b lack s and w hites s h o u ld he eq u al in th ose traits th a t
best p red ict p erfo rm an c e on th e job. F ro m the kin ds ot d ata review ed
in C h a p te r 1, we know th at c o g n itiv e a b ility is su c h a trait the m ore
so, the g reater th e sk ills are in volved in th e jo b . C o n se q u e n tly , we sh o u ld
e xp ecr rhe IQ gap betw een w hites an d b la c k s to be the narrow est for
h igh -skill job s if h irin g is race blind.
W e m ay draw th is c o n c lu sio n w ith ou t k n o w in g w h eth er an em p lo y e r
ad m in isters c o g n itiv e tests to jo b c a n d id a te s or e v e n th inks co n scio u sly
ab ou t c o g n itiv e ab ility w hen h iring. T h e re la tio n sh ip of c o g n itiv e a b il
ity to jo b p ro d u c tiv ity ex ists in d e p e n d e n t o f th e e x iste n c e of test sc o re s,
and all h irin g p ra c tic e s th a t su cceed in c h o o sin g p ro d u ctiv e w orkers w ill
tend to select em p lo y ees w ith only sm a ll gro u p d ifferen ces in in te lli
g en ce for o c c u p a tio n s in w hich IQ is m o st im p o rta n t. T h e table a b o v e
show s n o su ch n arrow in g for th e c o g n itiv e ly d e m a n d in g job s. It a n y
th in g th e gap w id en s tow ard th e top of th e table.
T h e m ost p la u sib le e x p la n a tio n for th e large g ap tow ard the to p of
the tab le is th a t em ployers are using d u al sta n d a rd s for black and w h ite
job a p p lic a n ts. M o reov er, we ven tu re th e h y p o th e sis th at em ployers are
u sin g d u al stan d a rd s at least in part b e c a u se so m e o n e or so m eth in g (th e
go v ern m en t o r an a v ersio n to harm ful p u b lic ity ) is m ak in g them do so
h en ce ou r c o n c lu sio n th at affirm ativ e a c t io n is p robably h av in g a m ore
su b sta n tia l im p ac t on h irin g p rac tic e s th a n the stan d ard analyses in d i
cate.
T h is also lead s to a rein terp retatio n o f th e g rap h on page 4 8 5 for
clerical an d p ro fessio n al and te c h n ic a l jo b s . W e p oin ted out th at th e
tren d lin e s tor b lack em p lo y ees did n o t g e t steep er, with the sin g le e x
ce p tio n o f c le ric al jo b s, after th e C iv il R ig h t s A c t was passed. N o w we
are su g gestin g an a lte rn a tiv e p e rsp e ctiv e : T h e fa c t th at the tre n d lin e s
c o n tin u ed to g o up as lon g as they did is in itse lf e v id e n c e o f the im p a c t
of affirm ativ e a c tio n . W ith ou t a ffirm a tiv e a c tio n , th e tren d lin es w ould
h av e leveled off sooner, p erh ap s at th e p o in t at w h ich b lack s and w h ite s
ot eq u al IQ h ad equal c h a n c e s o f e m p lo y m e n t in h igh -statu s jobs. In th e
n e x t figure, we ad ju st th e h irin g p ro p o rtio n s for th e know n d iffe re n ce
in IQ b etw een w h ites an d b lac k s.1" 1For p ro fe ssio n a l and te c h n ica l jo b s,
th e assu m p tio n is th at em p lo y ees are n o rm a lly draw n from p eop le w ith
490 Living Together
IQ s o f 9 8 o r higher; for c le ric al jo b s, the assu m p tio n is th a t they are

draw n fro m w ith m the ran ge o f 86 to 1 2 3 .1121 T h e resu lts are sh ow n in
the figu re below .
A re v ise d view o f e q u a l em p lo y m en t o p p o r tu n ity a fte r

c o r r e c tin g fo r eth n ic d iffe re n c e s in the I Q d is tr ib u tio n s
B lack /w h ite ratio (l= e q u a lity )J
1 9 6 4 C iv il Griggs Uniform P r o f e s s io n a l &

R ig h ts A c t d e c is io n is Guidelines te c h n ic a l jo b s
2 - p asses handed dow n sire a d o p te d .
0-
1960 1 96 5 1970 1975 1980 1 98 5 1990
Source: Bureau ot Labor Statistics 1983, 1989; U .S . Departm ent ot Labor

1991.
'' 1 lie rario represents blacks employed in a given occupational grouping e x

pressed a s a percentage ot eligible blacks, divided by the whites em ployed in
the sam e occupational grouping expressed as a percentage ot eligible whites.
The num ber o f eligibles is determ ined by the size of the working-age popu la
tion in rhat race who tall within the IQ range tor that occupation, as calc u
lated from a table ot normal probabilities. T h e assum ptions for com purm g
the rario are: (1) the IQ range tor professional and technical jobs is 98 and
higher; (2 ) the IQ range tor clerical jobs is 8 6 -123; ( ? ) IQ is normally d is
tributed with a mean ot 85 tor blacks and 100 for nonblacks, with a standard
d ev ia tio n ot 15 tor both groups.
W h a t sh o u ld the lin es look like ? If the assu m p tion s in d raw in g th em

were a c c u ra te , then both lin es sh ould h av e risen to 1 (to sign ify th at
blacks a n d w hites in the sam e IQ range are hired at th e sam e rate ) af
ter the a n tid isc rim in a tio n laws w ere p assed and th en h o v ered n ear 1
th ereafter. A n y th in g ab ove 1.0 sign ifies a h igh er lik elih o od for b lack s
of bein g h ired, o n c e IQ is held c o n sta n t; b elo w 1.0, the o p p o site is tru e.

T h e p ro p o rtio n of b lack s in p ro fe ssio n a l a n d te c h n ic a l job s rose a b o v e
1 in the early 1960s, flatten ed after th e C iv il R ig h ts A c t o f 1964, to o k
an o th er steep ju m p after G riggs, a n d t h e n settled in to a grad u al rise
through th e la te 1980s. For c lerical jo b s , p ro g ress after 1964 led to p a r
ity in the late 1960s. T h e relative p r o p o r tio n of b lack s in clerical jo b s
th en c o n tin u e d to in crease at a slo w er b u t m o re nearly linear pace sin c e
th en. In b o th cate g o rie s o f e m p lo y m e n t, b lac k s h av e been h ired at
higher rates th a n w hites o f equal IQ s in c e rhe late 1960s, and th e u p
ward trend lasted at least until the la te 1 9 8 0 s.
S in c e th ese jo b c ateg o ries d o n o r h a v e p re cise ly defined IQ ran g e s,
it m ay be asked w hat would h ap p en if th e assu m p tio n s were c h a n g e d .
S o m e of th e alte rn a tiv e s we tried are d e sc rib e d in th e note to this p a r a
graph. T h e sh o rt answ er is th at th e p ic tu r e stays essen tially the sa m e
w ithin an y reaso n ab le range o f a ssu m p tio n s. T h e ov erall c o n c lu sio n is
that b lack s h av e for som e years h ad m o re p e o p le w orking in bo th c le r
ical job s and p ro fessio n al and te c h n ic a l jo b s th an w ould ord in arily be
ex p e c te d , g iv e n th e IQ range trom w h ic h th o se jo b s are usually fille d .11'1
T h e figure a b o v e uses broad g u id e lin e s a h o u t the IQ range from w h ic h
c ertain jo b s are held and ap p lies th e m to n a tio n a l d ata about o c c u p a
tion s. For a n arrow er focus, the N L S Y su p p lie s d ata about specific in d i
vid u als, th eir o c c u p a tio n s, an d IQ s.IHI In 1 9 9 0 , u sin g th e sam e d e fin itio n
of p ro fessio n al and tech n ical o c c u p a t io n s , an d afte r con tro llin g fo r IQ
(set at 11 th e m ean IQ for w h ites in su c h o c c u p a tio n s), the p ro p o r
tion of b lac k s in th e N L S Y em p lo y ed in p ro fe ssio n a l and te ch n ical o c
c u p a tio n s was 1.5 tim es the p ro p o rtio n for w h ites, com pared to the ratio
of 1.7 sh ow n for 1990 in the g rap h . F o r c le r ic a l jo b s, after c o n tr o llin g
tor age an d IQ (w ith IQ set at 10"i, th e m e a n valu e for w hites h o ld in g
clerical jo b s), a b lack in the N L S Y w as 1.9 tim es m ore likely th a n a
w hite to be em p lo y ed in a clerical jo b , c o m p a re d to the figure of 1.6 for
1990 as sh ow n in the g rap h .|1S' T h e c o n c lu s io n draw n from n a tio n a l s t a
tistics is thus co n firm ed by the in d iv id u a l elata in th e N L SY .
S e v e ra l p o in ts m ay be draw n fro m th is ex e rc ise . First, it h ig h lig h ts
the reality and m ag n itu d e of th e d is c r im in a t io n suffered by blacks p rio r
to th e c iv il righ ts m o v em en t. A s re c e n tly a s 1959, the e m p lo y m e n t of
b lacks in c le ric al and profession al a m i te c h n ic a l jo b s was only h alt th e
p ro p o rtio n th at w ould h av e b een e x p e c t e d from recru itm en t to th o se
jo b s based on IQ alo n e. D e c e n n ial c e n s u s d a ta (n o t to m en tio n liv in g
492 Living Together
m e m o ry ) rell us th at this u n d errep resen tatio n w as still m ore severe in

th e 1950s and 1 9 4 0 s.16 T h e re was a clear and large racial d e fic it to be
m a d e up.
S e c o n d , the exercise show s how rapidly ch an ges w ere m ad e in the
19 6 0 s and early 1970s. If c o g n itiv e ability is tak en in to a c c o u n t, rhe un-
d e rre p re se n tatio n o f blacks in p rofession al an d tec h n ica l jo b s was gon e
by 1964, prior to the C iv il R igh ts A c t. T h is clo sin g of th e o c c u p a tio n a l
g a p betw een blacks and w hites, obscured by trendlines th a t d o n o t c o m
p e n s a te for IQ differences, argues th at so m eth in g b esid es a n tid isc rim i
n a t io n legislation was already afo ot in A m eric a, m ak in g rhe jo b m arket
le ss stack ed again st blacks.
T h ird , by the end of th e 1960s, the jo b m arket h ad pressed beyond
th e p o in t of parity for b lack s and w hites, again after c o g n itiv e ab ility is
ta k e n into account. O n e m ight argue th at this m erely p roves rhat IQ is
n o t so im portant for jo b p rod uctivity after all ex cep t rh at a large lit
eratu re, already sum m arized, d em o n strates beyond m uch d o u b t th at IQ
is a s p red ictiv e of job p erform an ce for blacks as for w h ite s.11W e can only
su rm ise that the reason for atta in in g such high levels of b lac k rep re
se n ta tio n , particularly in the o c c u p atio n s rhat m ost stro n g ly correlate
w ith IQ , includes the im pact of affirm ativ e ac tio n p o licies. T o rh at e x
te n t, if these affirm ative a c tio n p olicies were c h an g ed , black e m p lo y
m e n t in these occu p atio n s would tall. W ould th is be a return to
u n fairn ess? We will return ro this hard q u estio n after c o n sid e rin g rhe
c o s ts o f affirm ative actio n for jo b perform ance.
T H E C O S T S O F A F F IR M A T IV E A C T IO N : JO B P E R F O R M A N C E
In a sm u c h as cogn itiv e ab ility is related to jo b p erform an ce an d as m i

n o rity workers are en terin g p rofession s with lower ab ility d istrib u tio n s
th a n w hites, is there ev id en c e o f low er average p erform an ce for m in o r
ity w orkers than for w hites? O f all th e m any kin d s o f d o u b le -sp e ak a s
so c ia te d w ith affirm ative ac tio n , th is q u estio n p o in ts to o n e of th e m ost
e g re g io u s. Private c o m p lain ts ab ou t the in co m p eten t affirm a tiv e -ac tio n
h ire e are m uch m ore com m o n th an sch olarly e x a m in a tio n of th e issue.
W e m ay n o n eth eless present several cases b earin g on jo b p erform an ce,
all te llin g sim ilar stories for d ifferen t o ccu p atio n s, u sin g d ifferen t k in d s
ot d a ta .
Affirmative Action in the Workplace 49 3
Teacher C om p eten cy E x am in atio n s
T h e n atio n w id e en th u siasm fo r te a c h e r c o m p ete n c y e x a m in a tio n s in

the 1980s resulted in teach er te stin g p ro g ra m s in virtually all sta te s by
th e end of th e d e c a d e .11' T h e se c o m p e t e n c y tests are seldom jo b p e r fo r
m ance tests as su ch , hut rath er a te st o f b a s ic know ledge o f read in g, w rit
ing, and m ath e m atic s. E ven so , te a c h e r s w h o score higher on rhe te sts
h av e g reater su ccess w ith th eir s t u d e n t s .|y T h e com peten cy e x am s se e m
to have h ad so m e gen erally b e n e fic ia l e ffe c ts, th ou gh the cu toffs are low
by the usual stan d a rd s of w h at we e x p e c t teac h e rs to know .'0 T h e p a ss
rates for w h ites typ ically e x c e e d 8 0 p e r c e n t an d som etim es 9 0 p e rce n t.
W h ate v e r your p rofession m ay be, th in k ab ou t the m ean in g of a te st
th at would p a ss asp iran ts to th e p ro fe ssio n who perform in th e b o t
tom 20 p ercen t. Bur h av in g so low a c u to ff for w hites sh arp en s rhe e v
id en ce of the d isp arity in b lac k an d w h ite q u alificatio n s, as sh ow n in
the follow in g tab le.
T y p ic a l R e s u l t s o f S ta te
T e a c h e r C o m p e te n c y E x a m in a tio n s
Pas>; R a t e Implied
W hites B lack s Difference in
('a lif o m ia , 198 5-1991 80% 3 5% 1.2
Pennsylvania, 1989 93 68 1.0
N ew York, 1987 83 36 1.3
Georgia, 1 9 7 8 - 1 9 8 6 87 40 1.4
Sourcf.s; H . C'oil in s, M in ority g r o u p s art* s till on teach er e x a m / '

IluLulelphiu Inquirer, A u ^ . 5, 1 9 8 9 , p , B l ; T . S p o t t o r d , "T ea ch e r rust ca lle d
b ia se d ," Albany limes Unitm , N o v . 2 0 , 1 9 8 7 , p . A 1; R. D avila, " S t a t e s
te a c h e r lest b ia se d a g a in st m in o r itie s, la w su it c o n te n d s , Sacm m entn Hw,
S e p t. 24, 1 9 9 2 , p. R 8; "M in o r ity t c a c h e r s ," R ichm ond News 1.aider, M ay 16,
1989, p. A H -
1 A ssu m es a n o rm al d istrib u tio n a n d e q u a l s r a n d a r d d e v ia tio n s in both

groups.
T h e se a re n o t c o g n itiv e ab ility scores or scores th at are b e in g used to

select p e o p le for further ed u c atio n hut the scores a c h ie v e d by p eop le
w ho are h e a d in g in to the n a tio n s classroom s. A c c o rd in g to the in sti
tu tio n s th a t h av e graduated th ese a p p lic an ts for teac h e r c e rtific a tio n (in
som e c a se s, the scores are for teach ers already o n the jo b ) , all of them
h av e m et the requirem ents for a c o lleg e degree, and they presu m ably
can read, w rite, and do basic m ath. T h e scores are o n tests th a t m ake
n o p re te n se to seek ex c e lle n c e but ro w eed out the m ost o b v io u sly u n
su ite d .1211 W ith differen ces ran gin g upw ards o f 1 stan d ard d e v ia tio n , the
in e sc ap ab le con clu sio n is th a t a large g ap sep arates b lack an d w hite
teach ers in basic skills.1" 1
T h e C o m p e n sa tin g Sk ills Fallacy
O n e of the most com m on arguments ahnur rhe current practice of affir

mative action might be called the compensating skills fallacy. It is c o m
monly applied ro any profession under discussion, but teachers provide an
especially good example. T h e argument goes like this:
There are many skills and qualities that go into being a good teacher besides
test scores. The ability to inspire confidence, to create an eagerness to learn, to
listen to children are all part oj the wide repertoire oj skills that go into being a
good teacher that have nothing to do with the traits measured by a cognitive abib
ity or academic skills test.
T h e statem ent itself is correct. Most professions involve a n umber of
important nonintellectual attributes. T h e fallacy lies in assum ing that p e o
ple who have lower cognitive test scores will, on average, be better e n
dowed in these other areas than people with higher scores.
S u p p o se that the teacher competency exam s consisted ot several parts,
each ot which measured one of these nonintellectual skills. It would he
possible to defend hiring teachers wirh marginal grades on the intellectual
skills ij these teachers were hired from the top of rhe list on the tests of rhe
other qualities. But the way affirmative action programs actually work,
these other qualities are not tested or compared. T h e minority candidate
with rhe best score on the test o f intellectual qualities is selected. A s for
the other qualities, not measured by the test, there is no reason to assume
that they are any higher than average.121
A Jo u rn a lists A c c o u n t o f the W ashington, D . C . , Police Force
B ecause a ffirm a tiv e a c tio n h a s b een p r a c tic e d m o st aggressively in p u b

lic e m p lo y m e n t p o lice, firefigh ters, s o c ia l w elfare agen cies, d e p a r t-
m ents of m o to r v eh icles, an d the like th e y are logical p laces t o lo o k
if in deed jo b p erfo rm an c e h a s b een c o m p ro m ise d ."4 T h e W a sh in g to n ,
D .C ., P o lice D e p a rtm e n t is a case in p o in t, as d escribed by jo u r n a lis t
T ucker C arlson ."^
In th e m id -1 9 7 0 s, th e W a sh in g to n , D .C '., P olice D e p a rtm e n t
in stalled a residen cy req u irem en t for p o lic e . W a sh in g to n s w hite p o p u
latio n is d en sely c o n c e n tra te d am o n g w h ite -c o lla r and p ro fe ssio n a l
groups, w ith n o sig n ifica n t w h ite w o rk in g -c la ss n eig h b o rh o o d s. T h e r e s
idency req u irem en t th ereby severely r e stric te d th e p ool of p o te n t ia l
w hite a p p lic a n ts. By 1982, 4 0 p ercen t o f th e c a n d id a te s w ho to o k th e
p o lice ad m issio n s test failed it, and th e d e p a r tm e n t was h av in g a h ard
rim e fillin g p o sitio n s. A new test was in tro d u c e d in 1985, norm ed to f a
vor m in ority a p p lic a n ts. S ta n d a rd s in th e p o lic e acad em y were low ered
to th e p o in t at w h ich n o t o n e stu d en t flu n k e d out o f th e train in g c o u rse
in 1 9 8 } (d e sp ite the low er c o g n itiv e a b ility o f th e can d id a te s b e in g a d
m itted ). In 1988, th e acad em y a b o lish e d its fin al co m p reh e n siv e p e n -
c il-an d -p ap er e x a m in a tio n after 4 0 p e rc e n t of g rad u atin g recruits fa ile d
it. T h e form er h ead o f th e F ratern al O r d e r of P o lice and a v e te ran of
tw en ty-tw o years o n th e force rep orted th a t , at ab o u t th at tim e, h e b e
gan h earin g ab o u t p eo p le at the a c a d e m y w'ho could not re ad o r
w r i t e . A form er acad em y in stru cto r say s th a t I saw p eop le w ho w ere
p ractically illiterate. Ive se e n p eo p le d ia g n o s e d as borderline re ta rd e d
grad u ate from rhe p o lice ac ad em y .^7
T h is d e g ra d a tio n o f in tellec tu al re q u ire m e n ts tran slates into p o lic e
p erform an ce o n th e street. For ex am p le, th e pap erw ork th at follow s a n
arrest h as b een a b a n e o f p o lic e ev ery w h ere for m an y years, but w h e n
p olice c a n d o th e w ork, it is m ain ly an in c o n v e n ie n c e , not a barrier. A n
officer w ho cannot d o th e paperw ork or w h o fin d s th at it push es th e lim
its of his ab ilitie s m ay forgo m ak in g a rre sts in m argin al cases. T h e a r
rests th at are m a d e are o fte n b o tch e d . B e tw e e n 1 9 8 6 an d 1990, a b o u t a
th ird o f a ll th e m urder c ases bro u gh t to t h e U .S . atto rn e y s office in th e
D istrict were d ism issed , h isto rically a n u n u su a lly h igh rate, o fte n b e
cau se th e p ro sec u to rs were u n ab le to m a k e se n se of the arrest re p o rts.
496 Living Together
T h e haste featu res o f C arlso n 's a c c o u n t are con firm ed by a variety ot

o th e r jo u rn a listic accou n ts, m ost con sp icu o u sly a 1993 in v e stig a tiv e sc
ries by the W ashington Post o n p o lice p erfo rm an c e.2* Tw o facts ab o u t the
W a sh in g to n P o lice D ep artm en t seem clear: R ecru itm e n t an d train in g
stan d a rd s d e te rio ra te d m arkedly in recen t d ecad es, and th e p erfo rm an ce
o f the d e p a rtm e n t, once con sid ered a n atio n al m od el, h as also d e te rio
rated badly.
W a sh in g to n is n ot unique. In M iam i in 1985, the p o lic e d e p a rtm e n t
w as rock ed by the discovery and seizure of h undreds o f p o u n d s ot c o
c ain e h id d e n hy police officers w orking in c a h o o ts with sm u gglers. W e
h av e th e resu lts o f the in ten se self-ex am in atio n th at resulted. T h e m ain
c o n c lu sio n w as th at this crim e, as well as the m any o th e rs th at were
strain in g c o m m u n ity -p o lice relatio n s at th e rim e, cou ld be traced in part
to the r e la x a tio n of hiring stan d ard s m an d ated by a ffirm ativ e a c tio n reg
u latio n s. A lm o s t 90 p ercen t of the officers who were d ism issed or su s
p en d ed w ith in a few years o f rhe in itiatio n o f aggressive affirm ativ e
ac tio n p o lic ie s at the b egin n in g o f rhe 1980s were officers w ith m argin al
q u a lific a tio n s, hired because o f th o se p o lic ie s.29
S u c h sto rie s are com m o n am o n g people w ho h av e w orked in, or been
a c lie n t of, o rgan izatio n s th at p rac tic e aggressive affirm ativ e a c tio n , and
rhe lin k th ey ascribe to affirm ativ e actio n is usually e x p lic it an d e m
p h a tic .1*01 T h e r e is a great deal of sm oke e m an atin g from su ch ac c o u n ts.
W e urge th a t p eop le start c h e c k in g our w hether there is any fire.
A Scholarly A n aly sis o f an A ffirm ative A ction Program

fo r B lu e -C o lla r Jo b s
E c o n o m ist E u g e n e S ilb erb erg sy stem atically com pared the e x p e rien ce
o f h lacks w h o w ere ad m itted to craft u n ion s (e le c tric ian s, p lu m b ers, and
p ip e fitters) in S e a ttle at the end o f the 1970s under a co u rt ord er and
w hites w ho w ere adm itted u n d er ordinary selectio n p roced u res at the
sam e tim e . 1 S ilb erb erg assem bled d ata on p erform an ce in a p p ren tice
sc h o o l, o n -rh e -jo b ratings, and ed u c atio n al back gro u n d , th en was giv en
ac c e ss to a v a rie ty o f jo b p erform an ce m easures ov er an e ig h te e n -m o n th
follow -up p e rio d : hours w orked, n um ber o f em ployees w ho q u it, job s
turned d o w n , failures to respond to a d isp atch , and b ein g listed by an
e m p lo y er as n o t eligible for rehire. T h e tab le below' show s th e c o m b in e d
d iffere n ces, ex p ressed in stan d ard d ev iatio n s, for the p ip efitters and
p lu m bers.
J o b P e r fo r m a n c e o f B la c k A f f ir m a t i v e A c tio n P lu m b e rs
a n d P ip e fitte r s C o m p a r e d to W h it e R e g u la r H ir e e s
B la c k 'W h ite D ifference in SD s

Job performance measures
Q uits or no rehire + .6
Term ination for cause + .5
N onresponse to job call +.6
Hours worked -.9
IQ-related measures
G PA in apprentice school -1 .3
GPA in on-the-job training -.8
S ource: Silberbo rg 1985, Table 2.
N ote: T h e table com bines data on appren tices a n d journeyman for both
crafts using w eighted standard deviations.
C o m p a rin g th e blacks ad m itted u n d e r th e cou rt order w ith w h ite s

ad m itted u n d er th e ordinary p ro c e d u re s a t th e sam e tim e, the b la c k s
quit at m ore th an six tim es the rate for w h ite s, w ere term in ated for c a u se
at m ore th an th ree tim es the rate for w h ite s, and did n ot resp o n d to a
jo b d isp atc h at m ore th an six rim es th e ra te for w hites. S im ilar re su lts
w ere o b tain ed for th e ele ctric ia n s. T h e re su lts track clo sely w ith th e
larger literatu re on IQ an d jo b p ro d u c tiv ity . T h e d ifferen ces in th e jo b
p erform an ce m easu res are w h at m ig h t be e x p e c te d from th e d isc u ssio n
in C h a p te r 3. F u rth erm ore, the size o f th e d iffe re n c e in jo b p e rfo rm an c e
is ec o n o m ic a lly im p ortan t. S ilb e rb e rg d isc u s s e s the p ossibility th a t th e
d ifferen ces are th e m se lv e s a result ot b ia s a m o n g the d isp atch ers an d su-
pervisors. G iv e n th e proced u res for a s s ig n in g jo b s in th e S e a ttle u n io n s,
he c o n c lu d e s th at it is extrem ely d iffic u lt to e x p la in away the d iffe re n c e s
in such term s.1
H av in g review ed th e less th an p le n tifu l d a t a at h an d ab o u t e th n ic d if

feren ces in jo b p erform an ce, we are r e m in d e d ot a p assag e by A n d r e w
H acker, o n e of th e stou tly p ro v o ic e s in th e affirm ativ e actio n d e b a te :
A fav o rite q u e stio n o f a ffirm a tiv e a c t i o n s o p p o n e n ts is w h e th e r

you w'ould w an t to be o p erated o n by a su rg eo n w h o had b e e n a d
m itted to m e d ic a l sc h o o l un d er a r a c ia l d isp e n sa tio n . A s it h a p p e n s,
few p o sin g th is k in d o f q u estio n h a v e a n y kn ow led ge o f w hat m a k e s
498 Living Together
for su rg ic a l skill. In tact, there are n o know n c o rre latio n s betw een
g o o d g ra d e s or high scores and su b seq u en t su ccess w ith a scalp e l. If
we m e a n to d ebate this su b jec t seriously, we sh ou ld rely o n hard d ata
rath e r th a n scare ta c tic s.
W e c a n n o t agree w ith H a c k e rs ch aracterizatio n ot th e sta te o f k n o w l

edge, b u t we en th u siastically su bscribe to h is c o n c lu d in g se n te n ce . By all
m ean s, let p eo p le on all sides of this issue assem ble hard d ata. T h e p u r
pose of th e forego in g ex am p les is to m ake tw o p oin ts: ( I ) th e sc atte re d
e v id e n c e ab o u t jo b p erform an ce and affirm ativ e a c tio n in d irect and
direct, so ft an d hard su ggests large and p erv asiv e effects, an d (2 ) there
is n o e x c u se for not h av in g m any m ore h ard -d ata stu d ies of th e type th at
S ilb e rb e rg con d u cted . Jo b p erfo rm an ce is im p ortan t, it is m easu rab le,
and th e issue o f affirm ative a c tio n and its effects o n jo b p erfo rm an c e h as
been o n m an y p eo p les m in d s for years. M any c o rp o ra tio n s rou tin ely
c o n d u c t stu d ies o f jo b p erform an ce and have d atab ase s th at cou ld be re
analyzed to assess the effects o f affirm ativ e ac tio n on jo b p erfo rm an ce.
T h e req u est we m ake of H ack er and o th er p ro p o n e n ts of affirm ativ e
actio n is th a t they jo in us in e n co u ragin g such work. C o n fid e n t th at
group d iffe re n ce s in jo b p erform an ce are n o t an im p ortan t p ro b le m , they
can try to p rove their case. O u r ow n co n clu sio n is th at they c a n n o t do
so. If th is is so, the d ebate ab ou t affirm ativ e ac tio n m ust sh ift to a n o th e r
level: H o w m uch d egrad ation o f jo b p erform an ce is a c c e p ta b le in p u r
suit of th e o th er goals o f affirm ativ e ac tio n ? A n d th a t in turn brings
us to first q u estio n s. W h at, after all, is the n atio n trying to a c c o m p lish
with a ffirm a tiv e action in the w ork place? W h at are th e righr m easu res
o f su ccess?
In th in k in g a b o u t affirm ative a c tio n in th e w orkplace, m ore th a n p sy

c h o m e tric realities or efficien cy in the w ork place m ust be c o n sid e re d .
T o av o id m isu n d erstan d in g, th is is a good tim e to lay o u t o u r p e rsp e c
tive o n th e se oth er m atters.
A s o f th e 1950s, m in o rities, esp ecially blacks, in m an y p arts o f the

c o u n try were sy stem atically and unjustly exclu d ed from e n terin g
sk ille d and p rofession al o c c u p a tio n s o f all kinds.
A t least sin ce the 1950s, ch an g es in w hite attitu d e s, as ex p ressed
in th e civ il rights m o v e m e n t and in m yriad o th e r e v e n ts in race
relatio n s, the rem oval o f Jim C r o w re stric tio n s in th e S o u th , and

a lfirm ativ e a c tio n re q u ire m e n ts o p e n e d up o p p o rtu n itie s for mi-
n o rities. Progress was m ade.
In rhe 19 9 0 s, racial h ostility c o n t in u e s to be a sig n ific a n t problem
in A m e ric a n life.
A ffirm a tiv e a c tio n has an in te rn a lly c o n s is te n t ra tio n a le ev en if it
is at o d d s w ith th e m axim u m e ffic ie n c y in h irin g p ro d u c tiv e w ork
ers .
T h is last rem ark calls for som e e la b o r a tio n . S u p p o se , for the sake o f
arg u m en t, th a t we are sure th at a h isto ry o f u n fair d isc rim in atio n has
h an d ic a p p e d so m e p eo p le so rh at th e y fare less w ell in th e jo b m arket
th an they oth erw ise would. T h e ir h a n d ic a p s m ay h a n d ic a p their d e
sc e n d an ts, so th a t p ast unfairness is p ro p a g a te d in d efin itely in to the
future, u n less we d o so m e th in g a b o u t it. A properly c o n stru cte d affir
m ativ e a c tio n p olicy m ay th en be te m p o ra rily less efficien t b u t m ore e f
ficien t in th e lo n g run. If iL ac h ie v e s lo n g - ru n efficien cy by b reak in g the
cycle o f past d isc rim in a tio n , it is a rg u a b ly fair. A n d even if th e lon g run
is in d efin itely far off, m any p eop le a re w illin g to pay som e p rice in lost
p ro d u ctiv ity for a large en o u gh g ain in g ro u p equality.
O r su p p o se th at we knew th at th e in e q u a lity in e m p lo y m e n t th at we
ob serve arises for reaso n s we c o n sid e r in h e re n tly unfair. P erh ap s blacks
are, for e x a m p le , n o t being hired to be sh o p clerk s in n e ig h b o rh o o d s b e
cau se th e c u sto m ers (or the o th e r w o rk e rs) are b ig o te d .141 It m ay be e f
ficien t to hire few er clerks w ho w ill be d isc rim in a te d a g a in st, but it is
not fair. M an y p eop le w ould be w illin g, a g a in , to lo se som e efficien cy in
return for g reater equality.
In sh ort, we sym path ize w ith so m e o f th e im ag in ab le re aso n s for a f
firm ativ e a c tio n in the w ork place a n d are u n d e r n o illu sio n s ab ou t the
ways in w h ich p erc e p tio n s o f racial d iffe r e n c e s still affect e m p lo y e rs h ir
in g d ecisio n s. B ut affirm ativ e a c tio n d o e s n o t m ean ju st w an tin g good
th in gs. It m ean s sp ecific and o fte n su b s ta n tia l c o n stra in ts o n th e e m
p lo y ers ab ility to m ake use o f th e m o st q u a lifie d p eop le. W h a t sh ould
we m ake o f su c h p o lic ie s as o f th e 1 9 9 0 s?
Trying to Reconcile Ethnic Equity a n d C o m p e titiv e Fairness
It is p ossib le for an a d v o ca te o f c u rre n t a ffirm a tiv e a c tio n p o licies to

c o n c e d e all th e factu al p o in ts we h a v e m a d e in th is d isc u ssio n an d still
be in fav o r o f c o n tin u in g an d e v e n str o n g e r affirm ativ e a c tio n p o licies.
500 Living Together
F or su ch a d v o c a te s, it m akes n o d ifferen ce if rhe tests are re liab le and

v a lid p red ic to rs o f jo b perform an ce. If a d isa d v an tag e d grou p perform s
at a low er le v e l, ro th ese ad v o ca tes, it is self-evid en tly so c ie ty s fault,
an d g o v e rn m e n t m ust take w h atever steps are necessary to brin g th e d is
ad v a n ta g e d gro u p up to th e level of o th er groups, e n su rin g equ al e m
p lo y m e n t a n d in co m e in rhe m ean tim e. S o m e tim e s th is arg u m e n t is
c o u c h e d sp ec ifica lly in term s ot the b lack e x p erie n ce in th e U n ite d
S ta te s , so m e tim e s as part of a broader argum ent for a n e g alita ria n
a g e n d a .)S
O u r d isp u te with the eg alita ria n p o sitio n h as to be carried o u t o n e th
ical an d p h ilo so p h ic al grounds, for there is n o th in g m uch to argu e ab o u t
in th e facts. Briefly, we differ w ith the co n tem p o rary a d v o c a te s of c o n
tin u ed q u o ta lik e hiring req u irem en ts on tw o cou n ts.
First, we a d h ere to the 1964 view o f w hat co n stitu te s fairn ess, e x e m
p lified by H u b ert H um phrey, w ho, in figh tin g for p assag e of the C iv il
R ig h ts A c t o f 1964, declared th at it d oes n ot lim it the e m p lo y e rs free
d o m to h ire, fire, p rom ote, or d em o te tor any reaso n or for n o re a
so n s so lo n g as his actio n is n ot based on race," and th en vo lu n te e re d
to e at th e h ill in. public if h e were w rong ab ou t whar rhe new law w ould
d o .16 L ike th e senator, we reject eq uality of ou tco m e as an ap p ro p ria te
go al. E q u ality o f opportun ity is th e test m ost co n siste n t w ith th e v isio n
of rhe C o n g r e ss that en a cted th e law in 1964, an d for that m a tte r with
th e visio n th a t an im ated th e C o n stitu tio n . T h e ap p ro p ria te g o a l is a jo b
m ark et in w h ich people are n o t favored or held back sim p ly b e cau se of
rh eir race. N o th in g in nature or kn ow led ge, how ever, says rlv.it al I groups
sh o u ld be eq u ally successful in every walk o f life. T h is m ay be u n fair
in the sam e sen se that life is unfair, but it need n ot m ean th at h u m an
b e in g s are tre a tin g on e a n o th e r unfairly.
C o n sid e r rhe co n v en ien t an d ap p rop riate case of ath le tic p erfo r
m an c e . By th e stan dard of p ro p o rtio n al equality, th ere are too m an y
b lack p lay ers in the N a tio n a l B ask etb all A sso c ia tio n c o m p a re d to th e
n u m b er o f w h ite players. N o on e th in k s th is is unju st. W h e n p ro fes
sio n a l te n n is equalized the purses for m ale an d w om en c h a m p io n s, it did
n o t also req u ire the m en an d w om en ro play ag a in st oth er, b ecau se
e v e ry o n e recogn ized th at all th e top m en would alm o st alw ays b e a t all
of th e top w o m en . If m en an d w om en players w ere ran k ed in a sin gle
list, w ould th ere be too m an y m ales am o n g the top 100 te n n is p lay ers
in th e w orld ? A n y p articu lar d isp ro p o rtio n nury be unfair, but it m ay n o t.
Ir m ay be less ob vio u s why there are d isp ro p o rtio n s in o th e r pursu its,
h en ce h ard er to tell w h eth er they are fair, b u t th e p rin c ip le is the sa m e ,

and sim p le: If th e q u ality o f p e rfo rm an c e fairly d iffe rs a m o n g in d iv id u
als, it m ay fairly d iffer am o n g g ro u p s.1*71 If a d isp r o p o r tio n is fair, th e n
c o rre c tin g it m ak in g it p ro p o rtio n a l m ay p ro d u c e u nfairness a lo n g
w ith eq u al rep re se n ta tio n . W e b eliev e th a t is w h at h a s h ap p en ed in th e
case o f cu rren t fo rm s ot affirm ativ e a c tio n . P e o p le w h o bring equal q u a l
ification s to a jo b sh ou ld h av e an e q u a l s h o t a t b e in g hired, and a ffir
m ativ e a c tio n re g u latio n s, o rigin ally in te n d e d to p ro m o te precisely th a r
goal, now im p ed e it.
S e c o n d , the d e b a te will be h e a lth ie r if th o s e w h o w an t p rivate b u s i
n esses to su p p o rt so c ial o b je c tiv e s o p e n ly a c k n o w le d g e th a t such s u p
port d oes in fa c t e n ta il costs in e ffic ie n c y a n d p ro d u ctiv ity , h e n c e th e
b enefits th at flow from greater efficie n c y a n d h ig h e r p ro d u ctiv ity in
clu d in g a stro n g er eco n o m y tor A m e r ic a n so c ie ty a s a w h o le.1'81 N o r are
the c o sts in p ro d u c tiv ity u n ique to p r iv a te b u sin e sse s. W h e n a p o lic e
d ep a rtm e n t h ires p eo p le w ho b ec o m e less e ffe c tiv e p o lic e officers th a n
those it could h a v e h ired, the d e p a rtm e n t lo se s so m e of its c ap ab ility to
provid e law e n fo rce m e n t. A ffirm a tiv e a c t io n c a n c o st so m eth in g in g o v
ern m en t se rv ic e s every bit as m uch a s in th e p ro d u c tiv ity of a p riv a te
business.
W e d o n ot req u ire eq u al o u tc o m e s, b u t w e d o w an t fair tre a tm e n t.
W h at p olicy a lte rn a tiv e s m igh t be e m p lo y e d to b rin g ab ou t th is sta te
of affairs in h irin g an d p ro m o tio n ? B e fo re e x p lo r in g four alte rn a tiv e s,
let us say clearly th at the w orst a lte r n a tiv e , th e o n e we d o not d isc u ss
further, is w h at we are now d o in g : n o t r a is in g th e q u e stio n at all an d
p ro c eed in g as if th ere are easy an d c o s tle s s w ay s to ac h ie v in g fairn ess.
A lternative I: C re a tin g Tests T h at A re L e g a l U n d e r the C u rre n t

Recjuirements
In theory, em p lo y ers could c o n stru c t jo b - s p e c ific te sts th at m e e t th e

S u p rem e C o u r t s (a n d now th e C o n g r e s s s) d e fin itio n o f fairn e ss. It
w ould be e x p e n siv e , and th e tests w o u ld s e ld o m ( if ev er) he m ore p re
d ictiv e th an a g en era l test of c o g n itiv e ab ility . B u t it is feasible. T h e d if
ficulty is th a t p re d ic tiv e n e ss c o m es p rim a rily fro m th e te sts m easu re o f
g. T h e re fo re , alth o u g h they c a n n o t b e fa u lte d u n d e r th e o th e r le g a l r e
q u irem en ts, th ey will n o n e th e le ss he th r o w n o u t b e cau se of d isp a ra te
im p act. T h is is w h at h as h ap p en ed m o st fa m o u sly at N e w York C it y s
P o lice D e p a rtm e n t, w hich for m ore th a n a d e c a d e h as b een sp e n d in g
502 Living Together
large a m o u n ts of m oney trying to create a sergean t's e x a m in a tio n . E ach

su ccessiv e v ersio n has m et strict stan d ard s of job sp e c ificity an d free
dom from d em o n strab le cu ltural bias, but large e th n ic d isp a ritie s have
p e rsiste d .w T h e d isp arities th em selv es in v alid ate the test, an d a new ver-
sion m ust b e prepared. T h e p o lice d ep artm en t h as e v e n used a video-
based test, o n grounds th at any form of p ap er-an d -p e n cil test m ust
n ecessarily d iscrim in ate ag a in st m in o rities.
T h e c a se o f the N ew York P olice D ep artm en t is o n e e x a m p le of
m any.40 In p ractice, n o test rhar p rod uces d isp arate results h as b een ab le
to w ith stan d ch allen ge. T h e lesson of the last two d e c a d e s is th at e th
nic bias in a jo b test need n o t be proved. It need on ly be alle g e d . T h is
h as b een m o st con sisten tly the case for public e m p lo y m e n t p o lice,
firefigh ters, san itatio n w orkers, teach ers, ad m in istrativ e staff w here
p olitical c o n stitu e n c ie s c an m ost easily bring pressure to bear.
A lternative 11: Chousing A m o n g A pplican ts with E q u al E d u cation
O rdin arily a fair way to e ase the e x istin g affirm ativ e a c tio n req u irem en t
would be to permit' em ployers to narrow the pool o f q u alifie d a p p lic a n ts
by using e d u c a tio n as a screen. T h u s, for exam p le, th e 8 0 p ercen t rule
(see rhe d e fin itio n on page 4 8 2 ) could be c alcu lated o n th e basis of a p
p lican ts w h o m et a m in im um e d u c atio n al level, not all a p p lic a n ts. But
affirm ativ e a c tio n at rhe un iversity level (C h a p te r 19) p re v e n ts th is s o
lution from w orking, b ecau se the sam e degree m ay nor h av e rhe sam e
m ean in g fo r b lack s, L atin o s, and w hites in term s o f c o g n itiv e ability. W e
show ed th is for the b a c h e lo rs degree in th e p recedin g ch ap ter. Bur e m
ployers w h o try to m ake fin er d isc rim in atio n s are n o b e tte r off. In rhe
N L S Y , th e black-w h ite d ifferen ces for every e d u c atio n al level, from
h igh sc h o o l d ip lom a to P h .D , are large, with the sm alle st b e in g a d if
ference of 1.2 stan dard d e v ia tio n s.14"
N o r d o es it h elp to d ifferen tiate by m ajo r area of study. In th e N L S Y ,
a b lack an d a w hite w ith a b a c h e lo rs d egree in e n g in e e rin g , m ath , or a
hard sc ie n c e m ajors th at w ould ap p aren tly be least su sc e p tib le to d o u
ble sta n d a rd s were n o n eth eless sep arated by 1.1 stan d a rd d e v ia tio n s
in IQ . D ifferen ces for o th er co m m o n m ajors (b e h av io ra l and so c ia l s c i
en ces, fine arts, e d u catio n , or bu sin ess) ran ged from 1.4 to 1.6 stan d ard
d e v iatio n s. For L atin os, th e gap was sm allest for e n g in e e rin g , m ath , or
a hard sc ie n c e (.7 stan d ard d e v ia tio n ) an d ranged from .9 to 1.3 s ta n
dard d e v ia tio n s for th e oth ers.
Affirmative Action in the Workplace 50.3
T h e e d u c a tio n a l c re d e n tia l u sed to be an e ffe c tiv e w ay for a p e rso n

from a d ep riv ed b ack gro u n d to stan d o n a n e q u al fo o tin g w ith o th e r jo b
ap p lic an ts. It is still so treated th a t w ay in p o litic a l rh eto ric. T h e r e a l
ity lac in g em p lo y ers is th at, g iv e n th e ag g re ssiv e affirm ativ e ac tio n th a t
u n iv ersities h a v e em ployed ov er th e la st th ree d e c a d e s, e d u c atio n al c r e
d en tials c a n n o lo n ger he used to c o m p a r e th e in te lle c tu al q u a lific a tio n s
o f black, L a tin o , an d w hite jo b c a n d id a te s.
A lternative III: R ace N o rm in g
A n em p loy er w h o hires large n u m b e rs o f p e o p le c a n n o t very w ell g e t

alo n g w ith ou t u sin g a rest, bur at th e sa m e tim e p robably c a n n o t d e v ise
a test th at will p ass m uster w ith th e g o v e rn m e n t. S o it will h ave to te st
ap p lic an ts k n o w in g th at the test w ill p ro d u c e u n ac c e p tab ly large g ro u p
d ifferen ces b etw een w hites an d b la c k s, th e n co m p ly w ith the 8 0 p e r
cen t rule by h irin g ad d itio n a l a p p lic a n ts from th e p ro te c te d m in o rities.
T h e sim p le st way to d o th is is to e m p lo y a p ass-fail cutoff. E v ery o n e
a b o v e th e c u to ff is d eem ed q u alified fo r th e jo b , an d th en the e m p lo y er
uses cither m e th o d s to c h o o se a m o n g th e c a n d id a te s, m ak in g sure th a t
the end resu lt m e e ts th e 80 p e rc e n t ru le. T h is is a co m m o n so lu tio n
and requires on ly th a t the c u to ff be low e n o u g h th a t a su fficien t n u m
ber of p ro te c te d c a n d id a te s g et in to th e fin al grou p o f c a n d id a te s.1421
Rut the p ass-tail c u to ff throw s aw ay a g reat d eal of v alu ab le in fo rm a
tion . S u p p o se th a t after c o m p ly in g w ith th e 8 0 p ercen t rule, th e e m
ployer en d s up w ith six new w h ite e m p lo y e e s o u t o f tw enty w hites w h o
ap p lied an d tw o ou t o f seven b la c k a p p lic a n ts . W h y ju st take an y six
w hites w ho scored a b o v e th e c u to ff? W h y n o t in stead tak e the w h ite s
w ith th e top six sco res? S im ilarly , w hy n o t take th e to p -sco rin g tw o
black s?
T h is is c alled top -dow n h irin g . If th e test h as h igh validity, if th e
group d ifferen ces are large, and if th e re are m an y ap p lic a n ts, it is m u c h
m ore e fficien t th a n a cu to ff.4' B u t th e re is a d ifficu lty w ith this m e th o d .
By d e c id in g in a d v a n c e o n the n u m b e r o f w h ites a n d b lack s who w ill b e
hired an d th en p ic k in g th e to p - sc o rin g c a n d id a te s, the em ploy er is u s
ing q u o tas, w h ich is illegal (e v e n b e fo re th e 1991 C iv il R ig h ts A c t , a n
em ployer w ho u sed e x p lic it q u o ta s w as v u ln e ra b le to legal a c tio n ).
O n e w ay to g et aro u n d th is d iffic u lty is to use race n orm in g. T h e
raw scores are c o n v e rte d in to p e r c e n tile s b ased o n the d istrib u tio n o t
scores w ith in e a c h group: a w h ite a p p lic a n t re c e iv e s a p e rce n tile sc o r e
based on th e d istrib u tio n o f w h ite sc o re s; a b lac k a p p lic a n ts score r e p
504 Living Together
resen ts h is p ercen tile w ith in th e b lack d istrib u tion ; and so on. T h e n

th e em p loy er m akes h irin g d e c isio n s o n the basis of th ese race-n orm ed
p e rce n tiles. S ta rtin g in th e late 1970s, the U .S . D ep artm en t of L abo r
b e g an p ro m o tin g this so lu tio n , offerin g su ch race-n orm ed sco re s for
th e G e n e ra l A p titu d e T est B attery (th e G A T B , d e scrib e d in C h a p
ter 3 ) .44
By th e early 1980s, race n o rm in g h ad becam e a c o m m o n so lu tio n to
the e m p lo y ers dilem m a. T o see how race n o rm in g w orks, we m ay use
the e x a m p le of the p op u lar W o n d erlic P erson n el T est, a high ly ^ -loaded
p ap er-an d -p en cil test th at tak es ju st tw elve m inutes. In its rest m an u al
in use during the 1980s, th e W on d erlic com pan y gav e p recise in
stru ctio n s for w hat it called p erc e n tile se le c tio n " its term for race
n o rm in g alo n g with an E th n ic C o n v e rsio n T a b le . S u p p o se th at five
c a n d id a te s w hite, black, L a tin o , A sian , and A m e ric a n In d ia n
all go t th e W on derlics m ean score o f 22 prior to any a d ju stm e n t tor
g rou p d istrib u tion s. U sin g th e E th n ic C o n v e rsio n T able, rhe person n el
office w ould then assign th o se five can d id a te s, all of w hom h ad id e n ti
cal scores, to rhe 45th p erc e n tile (for th e w h ite), 8 0 th p e rc e n tile (for
th e b la c k ), 75th p ercen tile (fo r th e L a tin o ), 5 5th p e rc e n tile (fo r the
A s ia n ), an d 6 0th p ercen tile (for th e A m e ric a n In d ian ), and th o se scores
w ould th ereafter be treated as th e real sco res.1451 A n e m p lo y er cou ld
th en h ire from the top d ow n u sin g th ese ad ju sted scores an d e x p e c t to
end up w ith ratios o f em p lo y ees th a t w ould av oid triggerin g the U n i
form G u id elin es.
In 1986, the U .S . D ep artm en t of Ju stic e ch allen g ed race n o rm in g on
the grou n ds th at it was an unlaw ful and u n co n stitu tio n a l v io la tio n o f
th e righ ts o f people who w ere n eith er black nor L atin o. In our e x a m
ple, a b lack with a score o f 8 0 w ould in deed have a m uch b e tte r c h a n c e
o f b ein g hired than a w hite w ith a sc o re o f 45, though both h ad th e sam e
score on an unbiased, valid test. T h e D ep artm en ts of Ju stic e an d L abo r
a d ju d ic ate d their differen ces, ag reein g to study th e m eth od further. R ace
n o rm in g h ad few defenders in p u blic, w here its u n fairn ess see m e d p a l
p able. In the C iv il R igh ts A c t o f 1991, race n o rm in g was b an n e d tor any
em p lo y er su b ject to federal reg u latio n . For now, this ex p e rim e n t in af
firm ativ e a c tio n policy ironically, by far the m ost efficien t from a p ro
d u ctiv ity stan d p o in t and e v en the fairest, insofar as the h ig h e st scorers
at least w on out in c o m p e titio n w ith m em bers o f their ow n g ro u p h as
been su spen d ed.
A lternative IV: R eturn in g to the O rigin al C o n cep tio n o f A ffirm ative A c

tion
W e are d issa tisfied w ith all o f the forego in g alte rn a tiv e s and are broadly
critical o f th e way in w h ich the w e ll-in ten tio n e d effort ro end em p lo y
m ent d isc rim in a tio n h as played out. W e th erefo re clo se by urging c o n
sid eratio n of th is p ro p o sitio n : If tomorrow all fob discrimination regulations
based on group proportions were rescinded, the United States would have a
job market that is ethically fairer, more conducive to racial harmony, and eco
nomically mure productive, than the one we have now. W e can n o t prove
th at th e p ro p o sitio n is true (ju st as n o o n e c an p rove th at it is n o t), but
here are two re aso n s for tak in g it seriously.
T h e first is p u b lic ap p roval of rhe old c o n c e p t of fairness. Preferen
tial affirm ativ e a c tio n h as b een a fav o rite c au se of in tellectu als, jo u r
n alists, and liberal p o litic ia n s, bu t it h as n e v er b een rooted in broad
public sup port. In ste a d , ac c o rd in g to p o lls tak e n in the 1970s and 1980s,
m ost A m e ric a n s fav o r h irin g by ab ility test sco re s over preferential h ir
ing for p ro tected group s. A t the sam e tim e, th ey ap p rove of h av in g the
g o v ern m en t offer a h e lp in g h an d for e x a m p le , by offering free courses
to p eop le to h elp th em d o b ette r on ab ility te sts used for em ploym ent.
A c lear m ajority o f b lac k s sim ilarly fav or ab ility test scores ov er prefer
e n tial hiring.'* A retu rn to p o lic ie s based on e v e n h an d e d n e ss for in d i
vid u als (n o t for g ro u p s) seem s sure to attra c t e n th u siastic and broad
public su p port.
T h e sec o n d reaso n is th e p o ten tial for g o o d faith. O u r fu n d am en tal
re c o m m e n d a tio n for th e w ork place resem b les rhe on e we offered tor
h igh er e d u c atio n : g et rid o f preferen tial affirm ativ e actio n and return ro
the origin al c o n c e p tio n of c a stin g a w ider n et and lean in g over b a c k
ward to m ake sure th at all m in ority a p p lic a n ts h a v e a fair sh ot at the jo b
or the p ro m o tio n . T o th e e x te n t th a t th e g o v e rn m e n t has a role to play,
it is to en su re e q u ality of opportun ity, n o t o f o u tc o m e . O n ce again , we
an tic ip ate th at th e m ain o b je c tio n will be th a t en d in g affirm ative a c
tion as now p ra c tic e d w ill take us back to the bad old days. A s we com e
to th e end o f our lo n g w restle w ith the new A m e r ic a n D ilem m a know n
as affirm ativ e a c tio n , let us ex p an d on o u r re aso n s tor our op tim ism th at
the U n ite d S ta te s c an do w ith ou t it very well.
Try this th o u g h t e x p e rim e n t o n yourself. If all an rid iscrim in atio n law
were rescin ded tom orrow , w ould you (if you are an em ploy er) hire w h ites
in p referen ce to b la c k s or L a tin o s? W ould you (if you are an em ploy ee)
506 Living Together
b e g in lo o k in g for w o rk p lac es w h ere you did n o r h av e to work w ith blacks

o r L a tin o s? W o u ld you (if you are a cu stom er) seek out stores and ser
v ic e s th at d id n o t h a v e b lack o r L a tin o p erso n n el? We put the issue th at
w ay to e x p o se a stra n g e d isso n a n c e am o n g A m eric an s. W e are c o n fi
d e n t th a t th e an sw er to all of th o se q u estio n s by virtually all of the w hite
read e rs o f th is b o o k is an e m p h a tic , deeply felt n o . M ay we e v e n su g
g e st th at m an y of you w ould feel m u ch h ap p ier ab ou t w hat you w ere d o
ing if, as an em ployer, you sp e n t your tim e c o n c e n tra tin g on w h eth er a
m in o rity a p p lic a n t was th e righ t person for th e jo b rath er th an w orry
ing ab o u t w h eth er the a p p lic a n t w as likely to sue you if you turned him
d o w n ; th at, as a n em p lo y ee, you w ould find it a blessed relief to work in
an o ffice w ith b lack or L a tin o co lle a g u e s w here it could be tak e n for
g ra n te d by ev ery o n e th at the p erso n n el office h ad hired all of you using
rhe sam e y ard stick ; th at, as a c o n su m e r of services, you wish you could
c h o o se a su rgeon w ho h a p p e n s to be an e th n ic m inority, b ecau se you
co u ld be c o n fid e n t th at h is d e g re e m eant th e sam e th in g tor every on e
w h o re ce iv ed it.
W e h a v e n o d o u b t th at all of th e ab ove statem en ts are true tor the
v a st m a jo rity of o u r readers, a n d yet m any p e o p le are c o n v in c e d th at
th e p o p u la tio n as a w h ole w ould tak e ad v a n tag e of the situ atio n it a f
firm ativ e a c tio n w ere en d ed . T alk about it w ith your friends, and you
w ill fin d it to be a c o m m o n p la c e n o t lim ited to yourself. A lth o u g h they
to o are a u th e n tic a lly c o m m itte d to treatin g p eop le fairly regardless of
rac e , color, o r creed , th ey worry th a t m assive bigotry still e x ists an d will
brin g b a c k th e bad old days as so o n as th e h eav y han d ot th e g o v e rn
m e n t re g u la tio n is lifted from th e m . By odd h ap p en stan ce , the p eop le
o n e k n o w s p erso n a lly are m u ch m ore fair-m in ded th an the p eop le one
d o e s n t k n o w p erson ally.
Is th is really tru e? T h a t b ig o try still exists is in co n testab le. Bur th at
d o e s n o t m ean th at bigotry w ould prevail in the A m e ric an jo b m arket
as of th e e n d o f th e tw en tieth cen tu ry if the v ast m ach in ery of a n tid is
c rim in a tio n law d id n ot e x ist. M u c h ot w hat we have p resen ted in this
c h a p te r a b o u t o c c u p a tio n a l g a in s by blacks in the years before and af
ter 1 9 6 4 su g g ests th e o p p o site . T h e civ il righ ts m o v em en t au th e n tic ally
raised w h ite aw aren ess o f the o p p ressio n an d e x p lo ita tio n o f b lack s in
th e jo b m ark et. T h e tre n d lin e s in b o th w hite b eh av io r and b lack o u t
c o m e s b eg an to m o v e in the righ t d irectio n , g ath erin g speed. T h e civil
rig h ts le g isla ti o n c a m e a lo n g at th e sam e tim e an d probably tw eaked the
slo p e s of th o se tre n d lin e s in so m e in stan ces. B ut the great truth about
the 1960s was n o t th at th e n atio n fin ally e n a cte d th e c iv il rig h ts laws

but th at th e A m e ric a n p eop le were fin ally an d in e x o ra b ly m o v in g in
the righ t d ire c tio n anyway. W e are a sk in g th a t you c o n s id e r seriously
the p ro p o sitio n th a t it is feasible to rem o v e a n tid isc rim in a tio n law, re
p lacin g it with vig o ro u s en fo rcem en t o f th e tim e -h o n o re d A m e ric an
p rin ciple th at all citizen s are equal before th e law.
A s in th e c a se of college ad m issio n s, so m e e c o n o m ic a n d o c c u p a
tio n al resh ufflin g would occur. S o m e m in o ritie s w ould fail to g e t jobs
th at they get now. If, for exam p le, th e W ash in gto n P o lic e D e p artm e n t
returns to a p olicy of h irin g the b est-qu alified c a n d id a te s, a sm aller pro
p ortion o f th o se new p olice would be black . W h e re v e r e lse stan dards
h av e been low ered to in crease th e n u m ber of m in o ritie s in a w ork place,
the n u m ber of m in o rities in those p o sitio n s in th at w o rk p lac e would
probably d im in ish . O n the o th er h an d , the qu ality of th e W ash in g to n
p o lice force is likely to im prove, w hich will be o f tan g ib le b e n e fit to the
hundreds of th o u san d s o f blacks who live in th at city. M in o ritie s in all
w alks o f life will h av e lifted from them the p o s t - 1964 form of secon d -
class citizen sh ip th at affirm ativ e a c tio n h as im posed o n th e m .
M u ch o f rhe resh ufflin g th a t may b e e x p e c te d w ill n o t b e bad even
for th ose w ho are reshuffled. A s m atters stan d , new ly h ired m in o rity e x
ecu tiv es in c o rp o ra tio n s often enjoy sh o rt-term b e n e fits (h ig h e r pay and
statu s at the fro n t end th an new g rad u ates cou ld o rd in arily e x p e c t) but
a career d ead en d . B lack s in c o m p a n ie s th at do b u sin e ss w ith th e fe d
eral g o v ern m en t are routinely used in highly v isib le p o sitio n s as e v i
d en ce o f affirm ativ e actio n c o m p lian c e an d d iv e rte d fro m the m ore
p ed estrian hut u ltim ately m ore b en eficial a p p re n tic e sh ip p o sitio n s th at
the w hite em p lo y ees h av e n o c h o ice but to serve. M in o rity b u sin ess
people are c h a n n e le d in to the m in ority set-asid e g am e , le a rn in g how to
serve as fron ts for c o n trac ts th a t are ac tu a lly carried o u t by w h ites, in
stead of ru n n in g rhe b usin ess itself. A ffirm ativ e a c tio n h a s d eform ed
m any asp e c ts of A m e ric a n life, n ot least in tw isting th e w ays in w h ich
m in o rities m ust try to g e t ahead.
W e w ill nor try to estim ate w hat th e effects o f d o in g aw ay w ith jo b
d isc rim in a tio n le gislatio n would be for bu sin ess p ro d u c tiv ity . T h e e f
fects w ould vary w idely by industry a n d lo c atio n in an y c a se , from triv
ial to su b sta n tia l. N o r will we sp en d m u ch tim e ta lk in g ab o u t rhe
ben efits for w h ites, e x c e p t to say th at th ese b en efits sh o u ld be co u n te d .
It is easy for h igh ly ed u cated w hites w ith m an y o p tio n s to lo o k benignly
on affirm ativ e ac tio n . It has little effect o n th eir jo b p ro sp e c ts. For a
508 Living Together
y ou n g w hite m an w ith few er ad v a n tag es who has w an ted ro he a fire-

figh ter all his life and is passed ov er in favor o f a less-q u alified m inority
or fe m ale c an d id ate, the c o sts loom larger. T o dism iss h is d isa p p o in t
m en t and the hardsh ips w orked on him ju st because h is sk in is w hite
and h is sex is m ale is a p ecu liarly c o m m o n and cruel re ac tio n of p e o
ple w h o hurst w ith in d ig n atio n at every o th er kind of in ju stice.
W h ate v e r their precise am ou n ts, the benefits to p ro d u c tiv ity and to
fairn ess o f e n d in g the a n tid isc rim in a tio n laws are su b sta n tia l. B u t our
largest reason for w an tin g to scrap jo b d isc rim in atio n law is our belief
th at th e system of affirm ative actio n , in e d u catio n an d th e w ork place
alike, is leak in g a p o iso n in to th e A m eric an soul. T h is n a tio n d o e s not
h ave th e o p tio n o f eth n ic balk an izatio n . T h e in creasin g p ro p o rtio n s of
e th n ic m in o rities L atin o , E ast A sia n , S o u th A sian , A fr ic a n , E ast E u
ro p ean m ake it m ore im p erative, n ot less, th at we return ro th e m e lt
ing p o t as m etap h or and c o lo r b lin d n ess as the ideal. In d iv id u alism is
not on ly A m e ric a s heritage. It m ust be its future.
Chapter 21
The Way We Are Headed
In rhis p e n u ltim a te c h a p te r we sp e c u la te a b o u t rhe im p act o f c o g n itiv e

stratifica tio n o n A m e ric a n life an d g o v e rn m e n t. P red ictin g the co u rse
of society is ch an cy, bu t c ertain te n d e n c ie s se e m stro n g enough to worry
about:
A n in creasin gly isolated c o g n itiv e elite .

A m erg in g o f th e c o g n itiv e elite w ith th e affluent.
A d e te rio ra tin g q u ality o f life for p e o p le at the bo ttom end o f th e
c o g n itiv e ab ility d istrib u tio n .
U n c h e c k e d , th ese tren d s w ill lead th e U .S . tow ard som eth in g re se m

b lin g a c a ste society, w ith th e u n d erc la ss m ired ever m ore firm ly at th e
bo ttom an d th e c o g n itiv e elite e v e r m ore firm ly an ch o red at the top, r e
stru ctu rin g the rules o f society so th at it b e c o m e s h arder and harder fo r
th em to lose. A m o n g th e o th e r c a su a ltie s o f th is p rocess w ould be A m e r
ican civil so c iety as w e h av e kn o w n it. L ik e o th e r ap o caly p tic v isio n s,
this on e is p e ssim istic , perhaps to o m u ch so. O n th e oth er h an d, th e re
is m uch ro be p e ssim istic ab ou t.
R E C A P IT U L A T IO N : T H E IN V IS IB L E M IG R A T IO N
A s we d escrib ed in Part I, th e c o g n itiv e e lite refers to p eop le in the to p

p erc en tiles o f c o g n itiv e ability w ho, o v e r t h e co u rse o f th e A m e ric a n
tw en tieth century, h a v e b een p art of a v ast h u t nearly in visible m ig ra
tion. T h e m ig ra tio n d oes n o t reveal itself in m asses of h u m an ity c r o s s
ing fron tiers b u t in co u n tless bits o f d a ta a b o u t the m o v e m e n t o f
in d iv id u als ac ro ss th e levels of society. L ik e a ll o th e r g reat m ig ratio n s,
this on e to o w ill tran sform b o th the p la c e p e o p le left and th e p la c e
they go.
A t the b e g in n in g o f the century, th e g re a t m ajority o f p eop le in th e
top 5 or 10 p e rc e n t o f the in te llig e n c e d istrib u tio n were n o t co lleg e e d
510 Living Together
u c a te d , o fte n n ot even h igh sc h o o l ed u cated , an d they liv ed th eir lives

sc a tte re d alm o st in d istin gu ish ab ly am o n g the rest of the p o p u latio n .
T h e ir in terests were just as v a rieg ated . M an y were sm all b u sin e ssm e n or
farm ers, sh arin g the p o litic al o u tlo o k o f th ose groups. M an y w orked on
assem b ly lin es or as skilled craftsm en . T h e top o f the c o g n itiv e ab ility
d istrib u tio n probably in clu d ed leaders o f the lab or m o v em e n t a n d of
c o m m u n ity organizations. A m o n g the sm art w om en, a few had p ro fes
sio n a l careers of their own, but m ost of th em k ep t h ou se, reared c h il
d re n , and w ere often th e o rgan izin g forces of th eir religiou s and social
c o m m u n ities.
P eople from th e top o f th e co g n itiv e ab ility d istrib u tio n lived n ext
d o o r to p eop le w ho were n o t so sm art, w ith w hose ch ild re n th eir own
ch ild re n w ent to sch ool. T h e y socialized w ith, w ent to c h u rc h w ith, and
m arried p eop le less bright th a n th em selv es as a m atter o f cou rse. T h is
w as n o t an e galitarian u top ia th at we are trying to recall. O n th e c o n
trary, co m m u n ities were stratified by w ealth , religion , class, e th n ic b a c k
g ro u n d , and race. T h e stra tific a tio n s may have b een stark , ev en bitter,
bu t p eop le were not stratified by co g n itiv e ability.
A s the cen tury progressed, rhe h isto rical m ix of in te lle c tu al ab ilitie s
at all levels o f A m eric an so ciety th in n ed as in telligen ce rose to th e top.
T h e upper end of the c o g n itiv e ab ility d istrib u tio n h as b een in c re a s
in gly ch an n eled into h igh er ed u c atio n , esp ecially rhe to p c o lle g e s and
p ro fessio n al sch ools, th en ce in to h igh -IQ o c c u p atio n s an d se n io r m a n
ag erial p o sitio n s, as Part 1 d e taile d . T h e u p sh ot is th at rhe scattered
brig h test o f rhe early tw en tieth century have c o n g re g a te d , form in g a
n ew class.
M e m b ersh ip in rhis new class, th e c o gn itiv e elite, is g ain e d by high
IQ ; n eith er so c ial back gro u n d , nor eth n icity, nor lack o i m on ey will bar
th e way. But o n ce in the club , usually by age eigh teen , m em bers begin
to sh are m u ch else as well. A m o n g oth er things, they will c o m e to run
m u ch o f the co u n try s b u sin ess. In th e p rivate sector, th e c o g n itiv e elite
d o m in a te s th e ranks o f C E O s and th e top ec h elo n o f co rp o ra te e x e c u
tiv e s. S m a rt p eo p le h av e n o d o u b t alw ays had th e a d v a n ta g e in c o m
m e rce and industry, but th eir a d v a n ta g e has grow n as th e harriers ag a in st
th e w rong n atio n alities, e th n ic itie s, religion s, or so c io e c o n o m ic o ri
g in s h av e b een d ism an tled . M e an w h ile, th e leaders in m e d ic in e , law,
sc ie n c e , p rin t jou rn alism , te le v isio n , the film and p u b lish in g in du stries,
a n d th e fo u n d a tio n world c o m e largely from the c o g n itiv e e lite . A lm o st
all o f the lead in g figures in a c a d e m ia are part o f it. In W a sh in g to n , the
The Way We Are Headed 511
top e c h e lo n s ot fed eral o fficiald o m , sp e c ial in te rest groups, th in k tan k s,

and th e resr of W a sh in g to n s sa te llite in stitu tio n s draw h eavily from th e
c o gn itiv e elite. A t rhe m u n ic ip al lev el, th e lo c al bu sin ess and p o litic al
m overs are o fte n m em b ers o f the c o g n itiv e elite.
G IV IN G M E R IT O C R A C Y IT S D U E
Part I m ostly d e sc rib e d a su ccess story su c c e ss for the p eop le lu cky

en o u gh to be p art of rhe c o g n itiv e e lite but also a su ccess for the n a tio n
as a w hole. B efo re tu rn in g to th e dark sid e, we sh ou ld be e x p lic it ab o u t
the good th in g s th at flow from th e in v isib le m igration .
C h ie f a m o n g th em is th e trium p h o f an A m e ric a n ideal. A m e ric a n s
b elieve th at e a c h p erson sh ould be ab le to g o as far as talen t and h ard
work will tak e h im , and m uch of w hat we h a v e d escribed is the re aliza
tion of th at c o n v ic tio n , for p eo p le w ith h ig h IQ s. T h e breadth of th e
c h an g e w as m ad e p o ssib le by tw en tie th -ce n tu ry tech n ology, w h ich e x
pan d ed th e n eed tor p e o p le w ith h ig h IQ s by orders o f m agn itu de. B u t
the process itself lias been a classic e x a m p le o f p eop le free to resp o n d to
o p p o rtu n ity an d ot an e c o n o m ic system th a t cre ate d o p p o rtu n ities in
ab u n d a n c e.
Life has b een in creasin gly g o o d for th e c o g n itiv e elite, as it has d is
placed the so c io e c o n o m ic elites of earlier tim es. W e show ed in P art 1
the in creasin g fin a n c ia l rew ards tor brain s, but m oney is only a p art o f
the c o rn u c o p ia. In th e far-from -idyllic p ast w h en m ost o f the p e o p le at
the top of th e c o g n itiv e d istrib u tio n w ere farm ers, hou sew ives, w orkers,
and sh o p ow n ers, m any o f th em w ere also fru strated, aw are th at th ey
had c a p a b ilitie s th a t w ere n ot b ein g used. T h e grap h on page 56 th a t
traced the steep rise in h igh -IQ jo b s ewer th e cou rse of the century w as
to som e im p o rta n t e x te n t a p ictu re o f p e o p le m o v in g from u n satisfy in g
jo b s to lu crativ e an d in terestin g on es.
T ech n o lo g y h a s n o r ju st created m ore jo b s for the c o g n itiv e elite b u t
revo lu tion ized th e way they m ay be d o n e. M o d e rn tran sp o rtatio n h as e x
p an d ed th e realm in w h ich p eo p le w ork. B ey o n d th at, p h ysical se p a ra
tion is b ec o m in g irrelev an t. A sc ie n tist p a ssio n a te ly d evoted to the stu d y
o f a c ertain p ro tein o r an in v estm en t an a ly st follow in g a m arket c a n he
in daily e le c tro n ic c o n v e rsa tio n w ith p e o p le th ro u gh o u t the world w h o
share the sa m e p a ssio n , p assin g d rafts o f w ork back and forth, c a llin g up
d ata files, d o in g an aly ses th at w ould h av e requ ired a m ain fram e c o m
p uter and a c o v e y o f a ssistan ts on ly a few years ago all w h ile sittin g
a lo n e at a com puter, w h ich n eed n o t be in an office, but c an as easily be

in a b each h ou se o v e rlo o k in g the o cean . A cro ss the o c c u p a tio n a l d o
m ain of th ose w ho w ork p rim arily with their m inds, the e x p lo sio n o f
co m p u ter an d c o m m u n ic a tio n s tech n o lo g ies has lib e rate d an d e x
p an d e d creativity, p rod u ctiv ity , an d personal freedom . T h e r e m ay be
so m e costs o f th is p h y sical iso la tio n , but m any p eop le are h ap p ie r and
m ore fulfilled as a result o f th e reach of m odern tech n ology.
For the n a tio n as a w hole, rhe in visib le m igration h as surely bro u gh t
b en efits as well. W e c a n n o t m easure the gain s precisely, but they are th e
in ev itab le side effect o f g reater efficien cy in id en tifyin g in te lle c tu a l t a l
e n t and c h a n n e lin g it in to h igh -IQ o c c u p atio n s. C o m p a re d to 1900 or
e v e n 1950, A m eric a in the 1990s is gettin g m ore p ro d u ctiv ity o u t of its
sto c k of h u m an c ap ita l, an d th is presum ably tran slate s in to m ore jo b s,
g a in s in G N P , an d o th e r effec ts th a t prod uce m ore w ealth lor th e so c i
ety at large.
S o w h a ts the p r o b le m ? T h e old stratifica tio n s are fad in g , erased hy
a greater relia n c e on w h at p eo p le o ften call m erit. M illio n s of p eop le
h a v e ben efited from the c h a n g e s in clud in g us. W ould we p refer less
o f a m eritocracy? Put th at way, no but n o for larger reaso n s as w ell.
T h e in visible m igration is in m any ways an exp ressio n o f w hat A m e r
ic a is all ab o u t.
IS O L A T IO N W IT H IN T H E C O G N IT IV E E L IT E
W h a t w orries us first ab o u t th e em ergin g c o g n itiv e e lite is its c o a le s

c e n c e in to a class th at view s A m e ric an society in creasin gly th ro u gh a
len s of its ow n. In The End o f Equality, w hich analyzes the stra tific a tio n
o f A m e ric an society from a v a n tag e p o in t d ifferen t from ou rs, so c ial
c ritic M ickey K aus d escrib es th e iso latio n we h av e in m ind. H e id e n ti
fies it broad ly w ith the d e c lin e o f the p u blic sp h e re . 1 T h e en d o f the
m ilitary d raft, the social seg reg atio n o f th e sc h o o l system , an d th e d iv i
siv e effects o f th e u n d erclass are am o n g his su sp ects, and e a c h h as d o u b t
less played an im p ortan t role in d ep en d en t (to som e d e g re e ) of th e effects
o f the c o g n itiv e stra tific a tio n th at we d escribed in Part 1. T h in k in g
a b o u t the way th ese forces h ad affected h is ow n life, K au s rem arked : 1
en te re d a go o d Ivy L eagu e c o lle g e in 1969. 1 d ou bt Ive h ad a friend or
regu lar so c ia l a c q u a in ta n c e sin ce w ho scored less th an an 1100 on his
o r h er S A T b o ard s.2
K aus is p robably right. T h e reaso n why this is a p ro b lem is cap tu red
by a rem ark attrib u ted to th e N ew Yorkers o n e - tim e m ovie critic P a u lin e

K ael follow in g R ic h a rd N ix o n s lan d slid e v ic to ry in the p re sid e n tial
e lectio n of 1972: N ix o n c a n t h av e w on ; n o o n e I know v o ted for h im . '
W h en rhe m em b ers of th e c o g n itiv e elite ( o f w h atever p o litical c o n
v ic tio n s) h a n g o u t w ith eac h oth er, o fte n e x c lu siv e ly w ith each oth er,
they find it h ard to u n d erstan d w hat o rd in ary p e o p le think,
T h e p ro b lem is n o t sim ply th a t sm art p e o p le rise to the top m ore ef
ficiently th ese d ays. If th e on ly q u ality th a t C E O s o f m ajor co rp o ra tio n s
and m o v ie d ire c to rs an d th e W h ite H o u se in n e r circle had in c o m m o n
were th eir raw in te llig e n c e , th in gs w ould n o t he so m uch d ifferen t now
th an they h a v e alw ays been , for to so m e d e g re e th e m ost successful h av e
alw ays b een d raw n d isp ro p o rtio n ate ly from th e m ost in telligen t. B u t th e
in visible m ig ra tio n o f the tw en tieth c en tu ry h a s d o n e m uch m ore th an
let th e m ost in te lle c tu a lly ab le su c c eed m o re easily. It h as also se g r e
gated th em an d so cialized them . T h e m e m b e rs of the c o g n itiv e elite are
likely to h a v e g o n e to the sam e k in d s ot sc h o o ls , live in sim ilar n e ig h
bo rh ood s, go to th e sam e kinds of th eaters a n d restauran ts, read the sam e
m agazin es and n ew sp ap ers, w atch th e sa m e te le v isio n program s, e v e n
drive the sam e m ak es o f cars.
T h e y a lso ten d to be ig n o ran t of th e sa m e th in gs. T h e y w atch far less
co m m erc ial te le v isio n th an the av erag e A m e r ic a n . T h e ir m o v ie-g o in g
ten d s to be h igh ly se le c tiv e . T h e y se ld o m re a d the n atio n al tab lo id s
th at h av e th e n a tio n s larg est c irc u latio n fig u re s or listen to the talk ra
dio th at h as b e c o m e a m ajo r form o f n a tio n a l c o m m u n ic atio n for o th e r
parts of A m e ric a . T h is d oes n o t m ean th a t th e co g n itiv e elite sp en d
their lives at th e b a lle t an d read in g P ro u st. T h e ir s is n ot a h igh cu ltu re ,
but it is d istin c tiv e e n o u gh to se t th em o ff fro m th e rest o f the cou n try
in m any im p o rta n t ways.
T h e iso la tio n of th e c o g n itiv e elite is by n o m e an s com p lete, bu t the
statistica l te n d e n c ie s are stro n g, an d th e sam e ad v an ce s in tr a n s
p o rta tio n and c o m m u n ic a tio n th a t are so e n h a n c in g the p ro fessio n al
lives o f th e c o g n itiv e elite will m ake th eir iso la tio n from the rest o f the
public th at m u ch greater. A s th eir c o m m o n grou n d w ith the re st of
society d e c re ase s, th eir c o a le sc e n c e as a n e w c la ss increases. T h e tra
d itio n a l se p a ra tio n s betw een th e b u sin ess w orld , the e n te rta in m e n t
w orld, the u n iv ersity in te lle c tu als, an d g o v e rn m e n t are b ein g re p la c ed
by a n ax is o f b righ t p e o p le th at runs th ro u gh society. T h e y already se n se
th eir k in sh ip a c ro ss th ese sp h eres o f in terest. T h is too will in crease w ith
tim e.
514 Living Together
T H E C O A L IT IO N O F T H E C O G N IT IV E E L IT E A N D T H E
A FFLU EN T
T h e tre n d s we h av e d escrib ed would n ot c o n stitu te a th re a t to the re-

p u blic if th e g o v ern m en t still played th e sam e role in c iv ic life th at it
piayed th ro u gh the E isen h ow er ad m in istratio n . A s recen tly as 1960, it
did n o t m ak e a lot of p o litical d ifferen ce w h at th e c o g n itiv e elite
th ou gh t, b ecau se its pow er to im pose th ose v alu es on th e rest of A m er-
ica was lim ited . In m ost of the m atters that c o u n te d rhe way the
sc h o o ls w ere run, k eep in g order in the p u blic square, o p e n in g a b u sin ess
or ru n n in g it the n atio n rem ain ed d ecen tralized . T h e still in ch o ate
c o g n itiv e e lite in 1960 m ay h ave had ideas ab ou t how it w an ted to m o v e
th e w orld but, like A rch im ed es, it lack ed a p lace to stan d .
W e n eed n o t becom e em broiled here in a d eb ate ab o u t w h eth er rhe
ce n tralizatio n o f authority sin ce 1960 (or 1933, for th o se w ho tak e a
lo n g er view ) was right or wrong. W e may all agree as a sta te m e n t ot fact
th at su ch cen tralizatio n occurred , throu gh legislation , S u p r e m e C o u rt
d e cisio n s, an d accretio n s o f ex ecu tiv e auth ority in every d o m ain ot daily
life. W ith it cam e so m eth in g th at did n o t exist before: a p la ce for rhe
co g n itiv e e lite to stan d. W ith rhe end of th e historic lim its on th e fe d
eral re ac h , everyth in g w as up for grabs. If one p o litic a l g ro u p cou ld get
en ou gh v o te s on the S u p re m e C o u rt, it could m ove the C o n s titu tio n
tow ard its goals. If it cou ld get en o u gh votes in C o n g re ss, it cou ld do
sim ilarly w ith legislation .
T h r o u g h the 1960s, 1970s, an d 1980s, the b attle veered hack and
forth, w ith groups id en tifiably lib eral and c o n se rv a tiv e b lo o d y in g
e ach o th e r s noses in accu sto m ed ways. But in th e Rush and C lin to n a d
m in istra tio n s, the old lin es b egan to blur. O n e m ay an alyze th ese trends
c o n v e n tio n a lly in term s of th e ev o lu tio n of party p o litics. T h e rise o f
th e N e w D em o c rats and th e breaku p of rhe R e a g a n c o a litio n are th e
c o n v e n tio n a l way o f lo o k in g at the ev o lu tio n . W e th in k so m e th in g else
is h a p p e n in g as well, w ith p o te n tia l d an gers: the c o n v e rg in g in terests o f
the c o g n itiv e elite w ith the larger p o p u latio n o f afflu en t A m e ric an s.
For m o st of the century, in tellectu als and the afflu en t h a v e b een a n
tag o n ists. In tellectu als h av e been iden tified w ith the e c o n o m ic left and
th e cu ltu ral av an t-gard e, w hile the afflu en t have b een id en tified w ith
big b u sin ess an d cultural co n serv atism . T h e se c o m fo rtab le cate g o rie s
h a v e b e c o m e m uddled in recen t years, as faculty at th e top u n iv e rsitie s
put to g e th e r salaries, c o n su ltin g fees, sp eech es, and ro y a ltie s th at g a r
ner them six-figu re in co m es w hile th e N ew York Review of Books sh o w s

up in the m a ilb o x o f youn g co rp o rate law yers. T h e very brigh t h av e b e
com e m uch m ore un iform ly afflu en t th a n th ey used to be w hile, at th e
sam e tim e, the u n iv erse of afflu en t p eo p le h a s b e co m e m ore d en sely p o p
ulated by th e very bright, as Part 1 d esc rib ed . N o t surprisingly, th e in
terests ot a fflu en c e and the c o g n itiv e elite h a v e begu n to blend.
T h is m eld in g h as its lim its, p articu larly w h e n th e affluent p erson is
not part ot the c o g n itiv e elite. T h e h ig h -IQ S ta n fo rd professor w ith th e
b est-sellin g b o o k an d th e ord in ary -IQ fello w w ho m akes the sam e in
com e w ith his sm all c h a in of sh o e stores are hardly allies on ev ery th in g .
But in lo o k in g a h e a d to a llia n c e s and s o c ia l trends, it is still useful to
think in term s of th eir in creasin g c o m m o n a litie s becau se, as any g o o d
e c o n o m ist or p o litic ia n will p o in t ou t, th ere are th e o re tical in terests an d
p ractical in terests. T h e S tan fo rd p ro fesso rs b est-sellin g book m ay be a
d iatribe ag a in st th e p u n itiv e crim in al ju stic e system , but th at d o e s n t
m ean that he d o e s n t v o te w ith h is feet to m o v e to a safe n e ig h b o rh o o d .
O r his book m ay be a w ith erin g attac k on o u td a te d fam ily norm s, b u t
th at d o e sn t m ean th at he isn t a c tin g like an o ld -fash io n ed fath e r in
looking after rhe in terests o f his ch ild re n an d if th at m eans se n d in g
his ch ild ren to a lily-w hite p riv ate sc h o o l so th at they get a good e d u
catio n , so be it. M e an w h ile, th e m an w ith th e c h ain o f sh oe stores m ay
be p o litic ally to rhe righ t of rhe S tan fo rd p rofesso r, but he is lo o k in g for
d ie sam e safe n e ig h b o rh o o d and the sam e go o d sc h o o ls for his c h ild re n .
A n d ev en it he is m ore likely to vote R e p u b lic a n th an the professor, h e
is unlikely to be th e rugged in d iv id u alist o f y ore. O n the contrary, he is
likely to h av e b e c o m e q u ite co m fo rtab le w ith th e idea that g o v e rn m e n t
is there ro be used. H e and the professor m ay nor be so tar ap art at all
on how they w an t to live th eir ow n p e rso n a l lives and how g o v e rn m en t
m ight serve th o se jo in t and im p o rtan t in terests.
C o n sid e r th e sh e e r size o f th is em erg in g c o a litio n and how q u ick ly
the afflu en t c la ss as a w hole (n o t ju st th e c o g n itiv e elite) is grow in g.
W h at is a fflu e n c e ? T h e m ed ian answ er in 1992 w hen the R o p er O r
gan izatio n ask ed p eop le how m uch a n n u a l in co m e they would n eed to
fulfill all your d re a m s was $ 8 2 ,1 0 0 , w h ich in d ic a te s w here afflu en ce is
th ou gh t to start by m ost A m erican s.'1 For p u rp o se s of this e x ercise, we
will d efin e a fflu en c e as b eg in n in g at a n a n n u al fam ily in co m e of
$ 1 0 0 ,0 0 0 in 1 9 9 0 d o llars, ab o u t three tim es th e m ed ian fam ily in c o m e .
By th at d e fin itio n , m ore th an on e o u t of tw en ty A m e ric a n fam ilie s is
516 Living Together
afflu en t, roughly d ou b le w hat it w as a d ecad e e a r lie r / F u rth erm ore, th is

grow th h a s ac c o m p a n ied sta g n a n t real in co m e for th e av e rag e fam ily.
H ere is th e last o f th e m any grap h s we h av e asked you to e x a m in e in
this b o ok . In som e ways, it is m ore loaded w ith so cial im p lic a tio n s th an
any th at h av e com e before.
In the 1 9 7 0 s , eco n o m ic g ro w th began to en larg e th e a fflu e n t c la s s
M edian fam ily incom e Percentage o f fam ilies with

(b ars) incom es over $ 1 0 0 ,0 0 0 (line)
$ 4 0 ,0 0 0 - - 6
5
$ 30,000
4
$ 20,000 3
$ 10,000
1
$0 0
The shaded years are ones in which real per capita

G N P dropped. A ll figures are based on 1990 dollars.
.Sources: M edian family income: U .S . Bureau of the C ensus 1991, Table R-4. supplem ented
with U .S . Bureau of the C ensu s 1993, Table B T I. For families with incom es over $100,000,
data trom 1 9 6 7 -1 9 9 0 are taken from U .S . Bureau of the C ensus 1991, Table B-S; U .S . B u
reau of the C ensus, 1993, Table B-6. Figures for 1947-1964 arc esiim ated from U .S . Bureau
of the C en su s 1975, Series Ci 269-282, adjusted fur differences in definition of the lain 11y.
T h e g rap h illustrates the reaso n lor th e in ten se recen t in terest in

A m e ric a n in co m e inequality. From the end o f W orld W ar II u n til the
early 19 7 0 s, average fam ily in co m e rose. T h e n in 1 973, m e d ian fam ily
in co m e h it a peak. P art of th e reaso n for th e su b seq u e n t lack o f p rogress
h as been th e d eclin in g real w ages for m any categories o f b lu e -c o llar jobs,
d escrib ed in C h a p te r 4. Part of the reason has been th e d e c lin e in two-
p aren t fam ilie s (eco n o m ic progress co n tin u e d , th o u g h m od estly, tor
fam ilies c o n sistin g o f m arried c o u p les). In any case, th e av e rag e A m e r
ican fam ily has been stu ck a t ab ou t the sam e p lace e c o n o m ic a lly for
m ore th a n tw enty years.
Fur the afflu en t, th e story d iv erges sh arp ly. U n til the early 1970s, the
p ro p o rtio n oi fam ilie s with $ 1 0 0 ,0 0 0 in 1 9 9 0 pu rch asin g pow er in-
creased slow ly an d in tan dem w ith th e g ro w th in m edian fam ily in co m e.
Rut after p ro gress for th e av erage fam ily sta lle d , it con tin u ed for th e af
fluent. T h e ste e p e st g ain s occurred d u rin g th e 1980s, and R o n ald R e a
g a n s p o lic ie s ot th e 1980s are c o m m o n ly th o u g h t to he an im p o rtan t
force (in p raise or b lam e) for in creasin g th e n u m ber o f afflu en t. B u t
e c o n o m ists k n ew th at there is a d ifficu lty w ith th is e x p la n atio n , as you
will see w h en you co m p are th e 1970s w ith th e 1980s. T h e rising p ro
p o rtion o f fam ilies w ith in co m es of m ore th a n $ 1 0 0 ,0 0 0 sin ce the early
19 7 0 s d o e s n ot seem ro be a fu n ctio n o f an y p articu lar p o litical party or
policy, e x c e p t in so far as th ose p o lic ie s e n c o u ra g e an e x p an d in g e c o n
omy. It h a s g o n e w ith gain s in real per c a p ita G N P (in d icate d by the
u n sh aded bars in th e g rap h ic) w h eth er th o se gains occurred u n d er
R ich ard N ix o n , Jim m y C arter, R o n a ld R e a g a n , o r G eo rg e B u sh .161T h e re
is n o reaso n to th in k th at this tren d w ill he m u ch different under B ill
C lin to n or his su ccesso rs, if th e ec o n o m y grow s. T h e net result is th at
the afflu en t w ill c o n stitu te a m ajo r p o rtio n o t th e p op u latio n in the rel
atively n ea r lu tu re, an d they will in c re asin g ly be con stitu ted of the m ost
talen ted .
Try ro e n v isio n w hat will h ap p e n w h en 10 or 20 p ercen t of the p o p
u latio n h as e n o u g h in co m e to bypass th e so c ia l in stitu tion s they d o n t
like in w ays th a t on ly the top 1 p ercen t u se d to be ab le to do. R o b e rt
R e ic h h as c alle d it th e sec essio n of th e su c c e ssfu l. ' T h e cu rrent sym
bol of th is p h e n o m e n o n is the gated c o m m u n ity , secure behind its w alls
and guard p o sts, but m any oth er sign s are v isib le . T h e fax, m od em , an d
Federal E x p ress h av e already m ad e th e U .S . P o stal S e rv ice nearly irrel
e v a n t to rhe way th at the afflu en t c o m m u n ic a te , for ex am p le. A m ore
p o rten to u s d e v e lo p m e n t is rhe p riv ate c o u rt system th at bu sin esses are
b eg in n in g to c re a te . O r the m ass e x o d u s fro m public sc h o o ls a m o n g
th ose liv in g in c itie s, if they c a n afford it. O r th e proliferatio n o f p riv ate
security forces for co m p a n ie s, a p a rtm e n t h o u se s, sch ools, m alls, and a n y
w here else w here p eo p le w ith m oney w an t to b e safe.
Try to e n v isio n w hat will h ap p en to rhe p o litic a l process. E ven as of
th e early 1990s, th e affluen t cla ss is n o lo n g e r a thin layer of rich p e o
ple but a p o litic a l b loc to be reck o n e d w ith . S p e a k in g in round n u m
bers (for th e p re c ise d e fin itio n s of b o th g ro u p s are arb itrary), a c o a litio n
o f the c o g n itiv e elite and the a fflu en t c la ss now represents so m e th in g
w ell in e x c e ss o f 5 p ercen t of fam ilies an d , b e c a u se o f their m uch h ig h e r
518 Living Together
th a n av e rag e vo tin g rates, som ew h ere in th e vicin ity o f 10 to 15 per-

c e n t o f th e v o ters.* T h e p o litic a l clo u t of this group e x te n d s w ell b e
y on d its m ere vo tin g size b ecau se of its fin an cial c o n trib u tio n s to
c a m p a ig n s and because this group co n trib u tes a large p ro p o rtio n o f lo
c a l p o litic a l organizers. T h e co m b in ed w eight o f th e c o g n itiv e e lite and
th e afflu en t is already co n sid erab le. But we asked you to e n v isio n to
m orrow , n o t today. D o you th in k th at th e rich in A m e ric a alread y h av e
to o m u ch pow er? O r do you th in k th e in tellectu als alread y h av e too
m u ch p ow er? W e are suggestin g th at a yes to bo th q u e stio n s is p ro b
ab ly right. A n d if you think the pow er of th ese groups is to o g reat now,
ju s t w atch w hat happens as th eir o u tloo k s and in terests c o n v erg e.
C y n ic a l readers will be ask in g w hat else is new. T h e p riv ileged h av e
alw ays used th e law to their ad v a n tag e . O u r ow n an aly sis is hardly n o v el;
it is taken straig h t from a b o ok of essays w ritten m ore th an tw o cen tu ries
ag o , The Federalist. People are n o t naturally an gelic but self-in te re ste d
e lse , as P ublius p ointed out, go v ern m en ts would n o t be n ecessary in the
first p lace. Politically, p eop le form factio n s to pursue th e ir c o m m o n
en d s. G iv e th em access to g o v ern m en t pow er to furth er th o se en d s, and
th ey will tak e ad v an tage of it. T h e only m od est ad d itio n s we m ake to
th e se a n c ie n t truths are two p ro p o sitio n s: First, as of the 1990s, th e c o n
stitu tio n a l restrain ts on how a fac tio n m ay use g o v ern m e n t to furth er
its en d s h a v e loosen ed. S e c o n d , an u n p reced en ted c o a litio n of th e sm art
an d th e rich will take a d v a n ta g e o f this new latitu de in new ways.
F A C IN G R E A L IT Y A B O U T T H E U N D E R C L A S S
W h a t new ways? T h ere are m any p ossib ilities, but the c e n tral o n e s all
in v o lv e th e underclass. W e fear th at a new kind o f c o n se rv atism is b e
c o m in g th e d o m in a n t ideology o f th e afflu en t n o t in th e so c ial tra d i
tio n of an E dm und Burke or in the eco n o m ic trad itio n o f an A d a m
S m ith bu t c o n serv atism alo n g L arin A m eric an lines, w here to he c o n
se rv a tiv e h a s o ften m ean t d o in g w h atever is necessary to p reserve the
m an sio n s o n the hills from th e m en ace o f the slum s below . In th e case
o f th e U n ite d S ta te s, the th reat c o m es from an u n d erclass th at h as been
w ith A m e ric a n society for som e years but h as b een the su b je c t o f u n re
a listic a n a ly sis and in effectual, o ften co u n terp ro d u ctiv e policy. T h e new
c o a litio n is already afraid o f th e un d erclass. In th e n ex t few' d e c ad e s, it
is g o in g to h a v e a lot m ore to be afraid of. N o w is the tim e to b rin g to-
The Way We Are Headed 5 19
g e th e rfro m m an y c h ap te rs th ro u gh o u t th e b o o k th e im p lic atio n s o f c o g

n itiv e stra tific a tio n for rhe un d erclass.
T he Fate o f C h ildren
S tatistic ally , it is n o t good for c h ild ren to he born eith er to a sin g le

m oth er o r a m arried co u p le o f low c o g n itiv e ability. B u t the g re ate st
problem s afflic t c h ild ren unlucky en o u gh to be born to and reared by
u nm arried m o th e rs w ho are below av e rag e in in te llig e n c e a b o u t 2 0
p ercen t o f c h ild re n currently bein g b o rn .|Q| T h e y tend to do badly,
socially a n d ec o n o m ica lly . T h e y ten d to h a v e low co g n itiv e ab ility
th em selv es. T h e y suffer d isp ro p o rtio n ately from h eh av io ral p roblem s.
T h ey will be d isp ro p o rtio n ate ly rep re se n te d in prisons. T h ey are less
likely to m arry th an o th ers and will th e m se lv e s p rod u ce large p ro p o r
tion s o f rhe c h ild re n horn to sin gle w om en o f low in telligen ce.
A tte m p ts to c o m p e n sa te for c o g n itiv e d isa d v a n ta g e at birth h a v e
show n how ex trao rd in a rily hard it is to do. M a n y readers no d ou bt find
the p ligh t of c h ild re n to be am o n g th e m o st c o m p e llin g argu m en ts for
g o v ern m en t a c tiv ism , as we do. B u t in a d e q u a te n u tritio n , p h ysical
abuse, e m o tio n a l n e g le c t, lack of in te lle c tu a l stim u latio n , a c h a o tic
h om e e n v iro n m e n t all the th in gs th at w orry us w hen we think a b o u t
the w elfare of c h ild re n are very d ifficu lt to im p rove from ou tsid e th e
h om e w h en th e sin g le m oth er is in c o m p e te n t. In c o m p e te n t m oth ers are
h ighly c o n c e n tr a te d a m o n g the least in te llig e n t, an d th eir num bers are
grow ing. In C h a p te r 15, we d iscu ssed d iffe re n tia l fertility a b lo o d le ss
term an d su g g ested th at rhe n a tio n is e x p e r ie n c in g dysgenic p re s
sure a n o th e r b lo o d le ss term . In th e m e tric o f h u m an suffering, in
creasin g n u m b ers o f ch ild ren are born in to rhe co n d itio n s we m o st
d eplore an d th e c o n d itio n s th at g o v e rn m e n t is m ost h elpless to affect.
W h at h a p p e n s to rhe ch ild of low in te llig e n c e w ho su rvives c h ild
h ood an d re ac h e s ad u lth o o d trying to d o h is b e st ro be a p ro d u ctiv e c it
izen? O u t o f th e m an y p ro b lem s we h av e ju s t sk e tc h e d , this is th e o n e
we c h o o se to italicize: All of the problems that these children experience uni!
become worse rather than better as they grow older, for the labor m arket they
will confront a few decades down the road is goirig to be much harder for them
to cope with than the labor m arket is now. T h e r e w ill still be job s for low -
skill labor, m o stly w ith service b u sin esses a n d p riv ate h o u se h o ld s, bu t
the n atu ral w age for th o se jo b s will be low. A tte m p ts to in crease th e ir
w age artific ially (by raisin g the m in im u m w ag e , for ex am p le, or m a n
520 Living Together
d atin g jo b b e n e fits) m ay b ackfire by m ak in g a ltern a tiv e s ro h u m an la-

bor m ore affo rd a b le an d , in m any cases, by m akin g th e jo b s d isa p p e ar
alto g eth er. P e o p le in th e b o tto m qu artile o f in tellig e n ce are b e c o m in g
not ju st in c re a sin g ly e x p e n d a b le in e c o n o m ic term s; th ey will so m etim e
in the n o t 't o o 'd is t a n t future b ecom e a net drag. In e c o n o m ic term s and
b arrin g a p ro fo u n d c h an g e in d irec tio n for our society, m any p e o p le will
be u n a b le to p erfo rm th a t fu n ctio n so basic to h u m an d ign ity : p u ttin g
m ore in to th e w orld th a n they take out.
P e rh ap s a rev o lu tio n in teac h in g tech n o lo g y will d rastica lly in
crease th e p ro d u c tiv ity retu rn s to e d u c atio n for p eo p le in th e low est
q u artile o f in te llig e n c e , o v ertu rn in g ou r p essim istic fo re c a st. Rut
there are n o h arb in gers o f any such revo lu tion as we w rite. A n d u n
less su ch a re v o lu tio n o ccu rs, all th e fine rh etoric ab o u t in v e stin g
in h u m an c a p ita l to m ak e A m e ric a co m p e titiv e in the tw enty-first
ce n tu ry is n o t g o in g to be ab le to overturn th is reality: For m any
p eop le, th e re is n o th in g they can learn th a t will repay th e c o st of the
teach in g.
The E m erg in g W hite U n d erclass
T h e dry tin d e r for the fo rm atio n of an underclass co m m u n ity is a large

nu m ber o f b irth s to sin g le w om en o f low in telligen ce in a c o n c e n tra te d
sp atial are a . S o m e tim e in the n ex t few d e c ad e s it se e m s likely th at
A m e ric a n w h ites will re ac h th e p o in t of co n flagratio n . T h e p rop ortion
o f w h ite ille g itim a te b irth s (in c lu d in g L a tin o s) reach ed 22 p erc e n t in
1 991.1101 T h e r e is n o th in g ab o u t b ein g C a u c a sia n th at m ust slow dow n
the p ro c ess. B r ita in , w here the w hite illegitim acy ratio, w h ich w as m uch
low er th a n th e A m e ric a n w hite ratio as recently as 1979, h it 32 p erce n t
in 1992 w ith n o sig n s of slo w in g down.
W h en 22 p e rc e n t o f a ll b irth s are to sin gle w om en, th e p ro p o rtio n in
lo w -in c o m e c o m m u n itie s is p erh ap s tw ice that. In the N L S Y , 43 p er
cen t o f all b irth s to w hite w om en w ho were below th e p o v erty lin e w ere
ille g itim a te , c o m p a red to 7 p ercen t for all w hite w om en an y w h ere ab o v e
the p o v e rty lin e .1" 1 In th e n atio n at large, we know from the 1992
C e n su s B u re a u stu d y of fertility th at w om en w ith c o lleg e d eg rees c o n
tribute o n ly 4 p e rc e n t o f w hite illegitim ate babies, w hile w o m en w ith a
h igh sc h o o l e d u c a tio n or less co n trib u te 82 p ercen t. W o m en w ith fam
ily in c o m e s o f $ 7 5 ,0 0 0 o r m ore co n trib u te 1 p ercen t o f w hite ille g iti
m ate b a b ie s, w h ile w om en w ith fam ily in co m es u n d er $ 2 0 ,0 0 0
The Way We Are Headed 5 21
co n trib u te 69 p e r c e n t.1" W h ite ille g itim a c y is o v e rw h e lm in g ly a low er-

class p h e n o m e n o n .
In the p ast, w h ites h av e n ot h ad a n u n d e rc la ss a s su ch , b e c a u se th e
w hites w ho m ig h t q u alify h av e b een to o sc a tte re d a m o n g th e w o rk in g
class. In stead , w h ite c o m m u n itie s in A m e r ic a h a d a few stre e ts o n th e
ou tskirts of tow n in h ab ited by th e p e o p le w ho c o u ld n t se em to c o p e
and skid rows o f u n attac h e d w h ite m e n in large c itie s, but th e se s c a t
terings w ere se ld o m large e n o u gh to m ak e up a n e ig h b o r h o o d . A n u n
d erclass n eed s a c ritic al m ass, an d w h ite A m e ric a h a s n o t h ad o n e. B u t
if th e o v erall w h ite illeg itim acy ra tio is 22 p e r c e n t p ro b a b ly .so m e
w here in th e 4 0 p ercen t range in lo w -in c o m e c o m m u n itie s and risin g
fast, the q u e stio n arises: A t w h at p o in t is c ritic a l m ass reach ed ? H o w
m uch illeg itim acy c a n a c o m m u n ity to le ra te ? N o b o d y k n o w s, but th e
h isto rical fac t is th at rhe tre n d lin e s o n b lack c r im e , d ro p o u t from th e
labor force, an d illegitim acy all sh ifte d sh arp ly upw ard as th e o v e r a ll
black illeg itim a cy ratio passed 25 p e rc e n t an d th e rate in lo w -in c o m e
black c o m m u n itie s m oved past 50 p e rc e n t.
W e need n o t rely on th e an a lo g y w ith th e b la c k e x p e rie n c e . W h ite
illegitim acy is also o v erw h elm in gly a lo w e r-c o g n itiv e -c la ss p h e n o m e
n o n , as we d e ta ile d in C h a p te r 8. T h r e e - q u a r te r s o f all w h ite ille g iti
m ate birth s are to w om en below' a v e ra g e in IQ , an d 45 p e rc e n t a re to
w om en w ith IQ s u n d er 9 0 .'n| T h e s e w o m en are p o o rly e q u ip p e d fo r th e
labor m arket, o fte n poorly eq u ip p ed to be m o th e rs, an d th ere is n o r e a
son to th in k th a t th e o u tc o m es fo r th e ir c h ild re n w ill be any b e tte r th a n
the o u tc o m es h a v e b een for b la c k c h ild re n . M e a n w h ile , as n e v e r-m a r
ried m oth ers grow in num bers, th e d y n a m ic s of th e p u b lic h o u sin g m a r
ket (w here they w ill probably c o n tin u e to b e w e lc o m e ) an d th e p r iv a te
h ou sin g m ark et (w here they w ill n o t) will fo ste r in c re a sin g c o n c e n t r a
tion s o f w h ites w ith h igh u n e m p lo y m e n t, h igh c rim e , h igh ille g itim a cy ,
and low c o g n itiv e ability, c re a tin g c o m m u n itie s th a t lo o k very m u c h
like the in n er-city n e ig h b o rh o o d s th a t p e o p le n o w tend to a ss o c ia te
with m in o rities.
T h e w h ite c o g n itiv e elite is u n lik e ly to g re e t th is d e v e lo p m e n t sy m
p ath etically. O n th e contrary, m u c h o f w hite re se n tm e n t a n d fear o f th e
b lack u n d e rc la ss h as b een so fte n ed by th e c o m p lic a te d m ix tu re o f w h ite
guilt an d p a te rn a lism th at has o fte n led w h ite e lite s to e x c u se b e h a v io r
in b lack s th at th ey w ould n o t e x c u se in w h ites. T h i s d o e s n o t m e a n th a t
w hite e lite s w ill a b a n d o n the w h ite u n d e rc la ss, b u t it d o e s su g g e st th a t
th e m ean s o f d e a lin g w ith th eir n e e d s are lik ely to b e bru sq u e.
522 Living Together
Spatial Concentration, Low Cognitive Ability, and Underclass Behavior
A s th e p atie n c e of w hites for o th er w hites wears th in , th e b lack inner

c ity will sim u ltan eo u sly he gettin g worse rath er th an better. V ariou s
sc h o lars, led by W illiam Ju liu s W ilso n , h av e described th e o u tm ig ra tio n
o f th e ab lest b lack s th at h as left the inner city w ith ou t its form er le ad '
ers an d role m o d e ls.14 G iv e n a m ean black IQ o f ab o u t 85 and th e link
b e tw e e n so c io e c o n o m ic status and IQ w ithin eth n ic p o p u la tio n s, rhe
im p lic a tio n is th at the black in ner city h as a p o p u latio n w ith a m ean
IQ som ew h ere in the low 80s at best, with a co rresp o n d in g ly sm all tail
in th e ab o v e-av erage ran ge.|l:>l
W h a t is the m in im u m level of c o g n itiv e resources n ecessary to su s
ta in a com m u n ity at any g iv en level of so cial and e c o n o m ic c o m p le x
ity? For su stain in g a village of a few hun d red p eop le in a p rem o d ern
society, th e m inim um av erage level is probably q u ite m o d est. W h a t is
it for su stain in g a m odern com m u n ity ? T h e q u estio n is o f en o rm o u s
p ra c tic a l sig n ifica n c e yet rem ain s in n o cen t o f any e m p irical in v e stig a
tio n w hatsoever. Perhaps the crucial feature is the av e rag e c o g n itiv e
ability. Perh aps it is the size of the cadre o f h igh -ability p eo p le. P erh aps
it is th e w eigh t o f the p o p u latio n at low end o f rhe d istrib u tio n . N o on e
kn ow s. W h a te v e r the d etails, a prim a facie case ex ists th at th e c o g n itiv e
resou rces in the con tem p orary in ner city h ave fallen below rhe m in i
m u m level. W h at looked like a rising tide o f social p rob lem s a g e n e r a
tio n ago h as c o m e to look m ore like a fu n d am en tal b reak d o w n in social
o rg a n iz atio n .
O n e m ay look for sign s th at th ese c o m m u n ities are ab o u t to recover.
T h e crack co c ain e epidem ic of the 1980s has eb b e d , for e x a m p le , a l
th o u g h crack is ch eap er th an ever, as the sav age effects of th e drug b e
c a m e e v id e n t to younger broth ers an d sisters. B lack grass-ro o ts efforts
to restore th e fam ily and c o m b at crim e h av e in creased in recen t years.
B u t c o u n terp o ised again st th ese forces w orking o n beh alf of re g e n e ra
tio n w ith in the inner city is a pow erful force w orking ag a in st it: A large
m ajo rity o f the n ex t gen e ra tio n of b lack s in the in ner city is grow in g up
w ith o u t fath ers and w ith lim ited c o g n itiv e ability. T h e n u m b ers c o n
tin u e to in crease. T h e o u tm ig ratio n of the ab le c o n tin u es.
W h ile we can see how th ese tren d s might be reversed, w h ich we d e
sc rib e in th e n ext and final ch ap ter, let us co n sid er the p ro sp e ct we face
if th ey do not. T h is brings us to the d en o u em en t o f our p ro g n o sis.
The Way We Are H coded 52 3
T H E C O M IN G O F T H E C U S T O D IA L S T A T E
W h en a so ciety reac h es a certain ov erall le v e l o f afflu en ce, the h a v e s

begin to feel sy m p a th y tow ard, if n o t g u ilt a b o u t, th e co n d itio n o f th e
h av e-n o ts. T h u s d aw n s the w elfare state th e atte m p t to raise the p o o r
and th e n eed y o u t o f th eir p ligh t. In w h at d ire c tio n d oes the social w e l
fare system e v o lv e w hen a c o alitio n o f th e c o g n itiv e elite and th e a f
fluen t c o n tin u e s to ac c e p t the m ain te n e ts o f th e w elfare state b u t are
in creasin gly frig h te n e d ol and h o stile tow ard th e recip ien ts o f h e lp ?
W hen th e c o a litio n is prepared to sp en d m o n e y bur h as lost faith th a t
rem edial so c ial p rogram s work? T h e m ost lik e ly c o n se q u e n c e in our view
is th at th e c o g n itiv e elite, w ith its c o m m a n d in g p o sitio n , will im p le
m ent an e x p a n d e d w elfare state for the u n d e rc la ss th at also keeps it ou r
from u n d erfo o t. O u r label for this o u tc o m e is th e c u sto d ial s t a t e .1"
S h o u ld it co m e to p ass, here is a scen ario :
O v e r th e n e x t d e c ad e s, it will b eco m e b ro ad ly ac c e p te d hy the c o g
n itiv e elite th at th e p eop le we now refer to a s th e u n d erclass are in th a t
c o n d itio n th ro u gh n o fault of th eir ow n bu t b e cau se of in herent s h o r t
co m in gs ab o u t w h ich little can be d o n e. P o litic ia n s and in te lle c tu a ls
alike will b e c o m e m uch m ore o p en ab o u t th e role o f d y sfu n ctio n al b e
h av io r in th e u n d erc la ss, ac c e p tin g th at a d d ic tio n , v io len ce , u n a v a il
ability for w ork, ch ild abuse, an d fam ily d iso rg a n iz a tio n will keep m o st
m em bers o f the u n d erclass from fen d in g for th e m se lv e s. It will be a g ree d
th at the u n d e rc la ss c a n n o t be trusted to use c a sh wisely. T h erefo re p o l
icy will c o n sist o f g re a te r b en efits, b u t th ese w ill be prim arily in the form
of serv ic es rath er th a n cash . F u rth erm ore, th e re will be new re strictio n s.
S p e cifically , th e se c o n se q u e n c e s are p la u sib le :
Child care in the inner city will become prim arily the responsibility o f the
state. In fan ts w ill g e t b ette r n u tritio n b e c a u se th ey will be sp en d in g th e ir
days in day care c e n te rs from infancy. C h ild r e n will get balan ced d ie ts
b ecau se they w ill he e a tin g hreakfast, lu n c h , an d perh aps su p p er at
sch ool. D ay care c e n te rs and sch o o ls tor e le m e n ta ry stu d en ts will e d g e
clo ser tow ard c o m p re h e n siv e care fa c ilitie s, w h ose sta ff will try to p r o
vide n ot on ly e d u c a tio n and m ed ical care b u t to train ch ild ren in h y
g ien e, se x u al so c ia liz a tio n , so c ializa tio n to th e w orld o f work, and o th e r
fu n c tio n s th at th e p are n ts are d eem ed in c a p a b le o f p rovid in g.
The homeless will vanish. O n e o f the safer p re d ic tio n s is th at so m e tim e
in th e n ea r fu ture, th e c o g n itiv e elite w ill jo in th e broad public s e n t i
m e n t in fav o r o f reassertin g c o n tro l o v er p u b lic sp aces. It w ill b e c o m e

e asie r to c o n sig n m e n ta lly in c o m p e te n t ad u lts to c u sto d ia l care. P erh ap s
th e c lin ic a lly b o rd erlin e c ases th a t n o w c o n stitu te a h ig h p ro p o rtio n o f
th e h o m e le ss w ill b e req u ired to resid e in sh elters, m ore e lab o rate ly
e q u ip p e d a n d staffed th a n m o st h o m e le ss sh elters are today. P o lic e w ill
b e re tu rn e d th eir au th o rity to ro u st p e o p le a n d en fo rce law s p ro h ib itin g
diso rd erly c o n d u c t.
Strict policing and custodial responses to crime will become more accept
able and widespread. T h is issue c o u ld p lay o u t in sev eral w ays. T h e crim e
rate in a fflu en t suburbs m ay b e low e n o u g h to k eep th e p ressu re for re-
fo rm low. B u t e v e n ts in th e early 1 9 9 0 s su gg est th a t fear o f crim e is ris
in g, a n d su p p o rt for stric t law e n fo rc e m e n t is in creasin g.
O n e p o ssib ility is th a t a v a rie ty o f o ld p o lic e p ra c tic e s e sp e c ia lly th e
sto p -an d -frisk w ill q u ietly c o m e b a c k in to u se in new gu ises. N e w p ris
o n s w ill c o n tin u e to be b u ilt, a n d th e c e lls alread y a v a ila b le w ill b e u sed
m o re efficien tly to in c a rc e ra te d an g ero u s offen ders (fo r e x a m p le , by
e lim in a tin g m an d ato ry se n te n c e s fo r c e rta in drug o ffen ses an d by in
c a rc e ra tin g less seriou s o ffen d ers in cam p s rath e r th a n p riso n s). T e c h
n o lo g y w ill p ro v id e n ew o p tio n s for seg reg atin g a n d c o n ta in in g
crim in als, as th e e le c tro n ic b ra c e le ts n o w b e in g u sed to en fo rce h o u se
arrest (o r p erh ap s n e ig h b o rh o o d arrest ) b e c o m e m ore fle x ib le an d
fo o lp ro o f. A n o th e r p o ssib ility is th a t su p p o rt w ill grow for a n a tio n a l
sy stem o f id e n tific a tio n card s, c o d e d w ith p e rso n a l in fo rm a tio n in c lu d
in g c rim in a l record . T h e p o ssib ilitie s for p o lic e su rv e illa n c e a n d c o n tro l
o f b e h a v io r are e x p a n d in g rapidly. U n til recen tly, th e c o g n itiv e e lite h as
p re d o m in a n tly o p p o se d th e use o f su c h tech n o lo gy . In a few years, we
p re d ic t, it w ill n o t.
The underclass will become even more concentrated spatially than it is to
day. T h e e x p a n d e d n etw o rk o f d ay care cen ters, h o m e le ss sh elters, p u b
lic h o u sin g , an d o th e r serv ices w ill alw ays b e lo c a te d in th e p o o re st p art
o f th e in n e r city, w h ich m e an s th a t an y o n e w h o w an ts a c c e ss to th e m
w ill h a v e to liv e th ere. P o litic a l su p p o rt for su c h m easu res as r e lo c a tio n
o f p e o p le fro m th e in n er c ity to th e suburbs, n e v e r stro n g to b e g in w ith,
w ill w ith er alto geth e r. T h e g ap in g cu ltu ral gap b etw ee n th e h a b its o f
th e u n d e rc la ss an d th e h a b its o f th e rest o f society, far m ore im p assab le
th a n a sim p le e c o n o m ic g ap b e tw e e n p o o r a n d n o t p o o r o r th e ra c ia l
gap o f b la c k an d w h ite, w ill m ak e it in creasin gly d iffic u lt for c h ild re n
w h o h a v e g row n up in th e in n er c ity to fu n c tio n in th e larger so c ie ty
e v e n w h en th ey w an t to.
T he underclass will grow. D u rin g th e 1 9 8 0 s, sc h o lars fo u n d e v id e n c e

th a t th e size o f th e u n d erc la ss w as n o lo n g er e x p a n d in g .17 B u t e v e n as
th ey w rote, th e w elfare rolls, w h ich h a d m o v e d w ith in a n arrow ran ge
sin c e th e late 1970s, b e g a n to surge a g a in . T h e g o v e rn m e n t w ill try yet
an o th e r ro u n d o f th e c u sto m ary so c ia l p ro g ram s se x e d u c a tio n , jo b
train in g , p a re n tin g train in g , an d th e lik e an d th ey w ill b e as in e ffe c
tu a l th is ro u n d as th ey w ere in th e 1 9 6 0 s a n d 1 9 7 0 s.18 M e an w h ile , m an y
lo w -in c o m e p a re n ts w h o try to d o all th e righ t th in g s a n d p ass th e ir v a l
ues o n to th eir c h ild re n w ill b e in creasin g ly u n a b le to d o so. T h e y c a n
n o t p ro p a g a te th eir n o rm s in th e fa c e o f a lo c a l c u ltu re in w h ich
illegitim acy , w elfare, crim e, an d drugs are c o m m o n p la c e , a n d th ere is
n o th in g m ag ic ally in v u ln e rab le a b o u t th e m or th e ir c h ild re n . S o m e o f
th e reform s w e h a v e d esc rib ed w ill b e im p ro v e m e n ts crim e m ig h t a c
tu ally d rop in th e in n er c ity as w ell as in th e o th e r p arts o f tow n , for e x
am p le b u t th e m a in effe c t w ill b e to m ak e it h ard e r for th e c h ild re n
in th e se so lid a n d c o n v e n tio n a l w o rk in g-class fam ilie s to e m u la te th e ir
p are n ts. M a rria g e, stead y e m p lo y m en t, a n d re sp o n sib le b e h a v io r o f
m an y k in d s w ill fall a m o n g th e n e x t g e n e ra tio n , an d so m e p o rtio n o f
th e w ork in g c la ss w ill b e c o m e m em b ers o f th e u n d e rclass. Few c h ild re n
o f th o se alread y in th e u n d e rc la ss w ill e sc ap e.
Social budgets and m easures fo r social control will become still more cen
tralized. T h e grow in g n u m b ers o f ille g itim a te c h ild re n b o rn to p o o r
w o m en w ill h a v e m u ltip lier effects o n so c ia l w elfare b u d g e ts d irectly
a n d th ro u gh in cre ase d in d ire c t c o sts g e n e ra te d in th e e d u c a tio n a l an d
law e n fo rc e m e n t system s. A s sta te s b e c o m e o v erw h elm ed , th e cu rren t
c o st sh arin g b e tw e e n th e sta te s an d fed eral g o v e rn m e n t w ill sh ift tow ard
th e fe d e ral b u d g et. T h e m o u n tin g c o sts w ill also g e n e ra te in te n se p o
litic a l p ressu re o n W a sh in g to n to do so m e th in g . U n a b le to b rin g itse lf
to d o aw ay w ith th e w elfare e d ific e fo r by th a t tim e it w ill b e assu m e d
th a t so c ia l c h a o s w ill follow an y ra d ic a l c u tb a c k th e g o v e rn m e n t w ill
c o n tin u e to try to en g in e e r b e h a v io r th ro u gh n ew p ro g ram s a n d re g u
la tio n s. A s tim e g o es o n an d h o stility tow ard th e w e lfare -d e p e n d e n t in
creases, th o se p o lic ie s are lik ely to b e c o m e a u th o rita ria n a n d rely
in creasin gly o n c u sto d ia l care.
R acism will reemerge in a new an d more virulent form . T h e te n sio n b e
tw een w h at th e w h ite e lite is su p p o se d to th in k a n d w h at it is ac tu ally
th in k in g a b o u t rac e w ill re a c h so m e th in g c lo se to a b re a k in g p o in t. T h is
p e ssim istic p ro g n o sis m u st b e c o n te m p la te d : W h e n th e b re a k co m es,
th e result, as so o fte n h a p p e n s w h en c o g n itiv e d isso n a n c e is re so lv ed ,
w ill be an o v e rre ac tio n in th e o th e r d irectio n . In stead ot th e c a n d o r and

re alism ab o u t race th at is so u rgen tly needed, th e n atio n w ill he faced
w ith racial d iv isiv en ess an d h o stility that is as great as, or greater, th an
A m e ric a exp erien ced before rhe c iv il rights m ovem en t. W e realize how
o u tla n d ish it seem s to p red ict th at ed u cated and in flu en tial A m e ric a n s,
w h o h av e b een so p u ritan ical ab o u t racial c o n v ersatio n , w ill o p en ly re
v e rt to racism . W e w ould n o t g o so far as to say it is p rob ab le. It is, h ow
ev er, m ore th a n ju st p ossib le. If it w ere to h ap p en , all the sc e n a rio s for
th e c u sto d ia l state w ould he m ore u n p leasan t m ore v ic io u s than
an y o n e can now im agine.
In short, by custodial state, wê h av e in m ind a h igh -te ch an d m ore lav
ish version of th e In d ian reserv atio n for som e su b sta n tia l m in o rity o f
th e n a tio n s p o p u latio n , w h ile the rest of A m e ric a tries to g o ab o u t its
b u sin ess. In its less ben ign form s, th e so lu tio n s will b e c o m e m ore and
m o re to talitarian . B en ig n or oth erw ise, g o in g ab ou t its b u sin e ss in the
o ld sense w ill not be p ossible. It is d ifficult to im agine th e U n ite d S ta te s
p reserv in g its heritage of in d iv id u alism , equal rights before th e law, tree
p e o p le run n in g their ow n lives, o n ce it is ac c ep ted that a sig n ifican t part
o f th e p o p u la tio n m ust be m ad e p erm an en t wards of th e state.
E x tra p o la tin g from cu rren t tren d s, we p ro ject th at th e p o lic ie s of cus-
to d ialism w ill be n o t on ly to lerated but actively sup po rted by a c o n s e n
su s o f the c o g n itiv e elite. T o som e ex te n t, we are n o t ev en really
p ro je c tin g but reporting. T h e m ain d ifferen ce b etw een the p o sitio n ot
rh e c o g n itiv e elite th at we p ortray here an d the o n e th at e x ists tod ay is
to so m e e x te n t n o th in g m ore th an th e d istin c tio n betw een ta c it an d e x
p lic it.
If we w ish to avoid th is p ro sp ec t for the future, we c a n n o t c o u n t on
th e n atural course of e v e n ts to m ake things com e out right. N o w is the
tim e to th in k hard ab o u t how a society in w hich a c o g n itiv e elite d o m
in a te s and in w hich b elo w -av erag e c o g n itiv e ability is in creasin gly a
h a n d ic a p c a n also be a so c ie ty th at m akes good on th e fu n d am e n tal
p ro m ise of th e A m e ric a n trad itio n : the op p ortu n ity for every on e, not
ju s t the lucky ones, to live a satisfy in g life. T h at is the task to w h ich we
n o w rum .
Chapter 22
A Place for Everyone
H
ow sh o u ld p o licy d eal w ith the tw in re a litie s th at p eop le d iffer in
in te llig e n c e for reaso n s th at are n o t th e ir fault, and th at in te lli
gen ce h as a p ow erful h earin g o n how w ell p e o p le do in life?
T h e an sw er of th e tw en tieth c en tu ry h a s b een th at g o v e rn m e n t
sh ould c re a te rhe eq u ality o f c o n d itio n th a t s o c ie ty h as n eglected to p r o
duce o n its ow n. T h e assu m p tio n th at e g a lita ria n ism is the proper id eal,
h ow ever d iffic u lt it m ay be to ac h ie v e in p ra c tic e , suffuses c o n te m p o
rary p o litic al theory. S o c ia lism , c o m m u n ism , so c ial dem ocracy, an d
A m e ric a s w elfare sta te h av e b e e n d ifferen t w ay s of m ovin g tow ard the
eg alita ria n id eal. T h e p h rase social justice h a s b e c o m e virtually a sy n
onym for e c o n o m ic an d so cial equ ality.
U n til now, th e se p o litic al m o v e m e n ts h a v e focu sed on the e v ils o f
system s in p ro d u c in g in equality. H u m an b e in g s are p oten tially p retty
m u ch the sam e, th e d o m in a n t p o litic a l d o c tr in e h as argued, e x c e p t for
the in e q u a litie s p ro d u ced by society. T h e se s a m e th in kers h ave g e n e r
ally rejec ted , o fte n vitrio lically , arg u m e n ts th a t in dividu al d ifferen ces
such as in te llig e n c e are to b lam e. B ut th ere is n o reason why they c o u ld
not sh ift gro u n d . In m any ways, the m a te ria l in th is book is tailor-m ad e
for th eir case. If its n o t so m e o n e s fau lt th a t h e is less in tellig en t th a n
oth ers, why sh o u ld h e be p en alized in h is in c o m e an d so cial statu s?
W e co u ld re sp o n d w ith a d efen se o f in c o m e differen ces. For e x a m
ple, it is ju stifie d to pay th e h ig h -IQ b u sin e ssm a n an d en gin eer m o re
th an the lo w -IQ d itc h digger, p ro d u c in g in c o m e in equality, b e c au se
th a ts th e on ly w ay to m ak e th e ec o n o m y gro w an d p rod u ce m ore w e a lth
in w hich rhe d itc h d igger c an sh are. W e c o u ld g ran t th at it is a m a tte r
n o t o f ju st d eserts b u t o f e c o n o m ic p ra g m a tism ab o u t how to p ro d u c e
c o m p e n sa tin g b en efits for the le ast a d v a n ta g e d m em bers of so c ie ty .1
528 Living Together
S u c h arg u m e n ts m ake sen se to us, as far a s they go. A fte r th e e x p e rie n ce

of th e tw en tieth century, it is hard to im agin e th at an y on e still d isagrees
w ith th em . B u t there are o th e r issues, tran scen d in g th e efficien cy o f an
e con o m y. O u r cen tral c o n c ern sin ce we b egan w riting th is book is how
p e o p le m igh t live togeth er h arm on iously d esp ite fu n d a m e n ta l in d iv id
ual d ifferen ces. T h e answ er lies outside eco n o m ics.
T h e in itial purpose o f th is c h ap ter is to presen t for your c o n sid e r a
tion a n o th e r way o f th in k in g ab ou t eq u ality and inequality. It rep resen ts
an o ld er in te lle c tu al trad itio n th an social dem o cracy o r e v en so cialism .
In o u r view , it is also a wiser trad itio n , m ore attun ed to th e way in w hich
in d iv id u a ls g o ab ou t living satisfyin g lives and to the ways in w h ich s o
c ie tie s th riv e. T h e m ore sp ecific policy co n c lu sio n s to w h ich we then
turn c a n n o t be exp lain ed ap art from this u n d erp in n in g.
T H I N K I N G A B O U T E Q U A L I T Y A S A N ID E A L
For th o u sa n d s of years, great p o litical th in kers of East and W esr tried to

h arm on ize h u m an differen ces. For C o n fu ciu s, society was like h is c o n
c e p tio n o f a fam ily e x te n sio n s of a ruling fath er and o b e d ie n t son s, d e
v o ted h u sb a n d s and faithful w ives, b en ign m asters an d loyal serv an ts.
P eople w ere defin ed by th eir p lace, w hether in the fam ily or rhe c o m
m unity. S o too for the a n c ie n t G re e k an d R o m an p h ilo so p h e rs: p lace
was all. A ll the great religious trad itio n s d efin e a p lace for ev ery o n e, if
not o n e a rth then in h eav en .
S o c ie ty w as to be ruled by the virtuous and wise few. T h e everyday
bu sin ess o f the com m un ity fell to the less w orthy m u ltitu d e, w ith the
m ost m e n ia l ch ores left to th e slav es. N e ith e r th e G re e k d e m o c ra ts nor
the R o m a n rep u blican s b eliev ed th at all m en are cre ate d e q u a l. N o r
did rhe g re a t H indu th in kers o f th e A sia n su b c o n tin e n t, w here o n e s
work d e fin e d o n e s caste, w h ich in turn circu m scribed every o th e r asp ect
o f life. T h e an c ie n ts ac c ep ted the basic prem ise th at p eop le d iffer fu n d a
m en tally a n d im portantly an d search ed for ways in w h ich p e o p le could
c o n te n te d ly serve the com m u n ity (or the m o n arch or the tyran t or the
g o d s), ra th e r th an th em selv es, d esp ite th eir differen ces. P h ilo so p h ers a r
gued a b o u t o b lig atio n s an d d u ties, w hat they are an d o n w h om th ey fall.
In our h isto ric a l era, p o litic a l p h ilo so p h ers h av e argued in ste ad about
righ ts. T h e y do so because they are trying to so lv e a d iffere n t problem .
T h e g re a t tran sfo rm atio n from a search for d u ties and o b lig a tio n s to a
se arc h for righ ts m ay be d ated w ith T h o m a s H obbes, w ritin g in th e m id-
A Place for Everyone 529
1600s ab o u t vi p rin c ip le w hereby a ll p e o p le , n o t ju st the rich a n d w ell

born, m igh t h av e e q u al righ ts to liberty.2 E v ery o n e , said H obbes, is e n ti
tled to as m u ch liberty in gratify in g h is d e sire s as he is w illing to allow
oth ers in g ratify in g th eirs.1)1 P eo p le differ, ack n o w led ged H ob b es, but
they d o n o t d iffer so m uch th at they m ay ju stifia b ly be d eprived o f lib
erty by d iffe rin g a m o u n ts. In th e m o d e rn v ie w th at H ob b es h elp ed sh a p e ,
in d iv id u als freely a c c e p t c o n stra in ts o n th e ir ow n b e h a v io r in e x c h a n g e
for ridd in g th e m se lv e s of th e d an g ers o f liv in g in perfect freedom , h e n c e
perfect an a rc h y .141 T h e co n strain ts c o n stitu te law ful gov ern m en t.
H o b b es b eliev ed th at th e on ly a lte r n a tiv e s for h u m an society are, in
effect, an a rc h y or ab so lu te m on arch y. G i v e n th ose altern ativ es, said
H o b b es, a ra tio n a l person w ould c h o o se a m o n arc h to ensure the e q u a l
ity of p o litic a l righ ts, rath er th an ta k e h is c h a n c e s w ith perfect freed om .
H is su c c esso r in E n glish p o litical th o u g h t, Jo h n L o ck e , did n ot a c c e p t
th e H o b b e sia n c h o ic e betw een d e sp o tism an d anarchy. H e c o n c e iv e d
of p eo p le in a sta te of nature as b ein g in a S tate also of Equality, w h erein
all the P ow er an d Ju risd ictio n is re c ip ro c a l, n o o n e h av in g m ore th an
a n o th e r, ' a n d so u g h t to p reserve th a t c o n d itio n in actu al so c ie tie s
th ro u gh a strictly lim ited g o v e rn m e n t. W h a t L o ck e propou nded is e s
p ecially p e rtin e n t here b ecau se it w as h is theory th at rhe A m e ric a n
F ou n d ers bro u gh t in to reality.
But w ith L o c k e also arose a co n fu sio n , w h ic h has grown steadily w ith
p assin g tim e. For m ost co n tem p o rary A m e r ic a n s w ho are aware o f L o c k e
at all, he is id e n tifie d w ith th e id ea of m a n as tab u la rasa, a b lan k slate
o n w hich e x p e rie n c e w rites. W ith o u t e x p e rie n c e , L ock e is o fte n b e
lieved to h a v e said , in d iv id u als are b o th e q u a l and em pty, a b lan k slate
to be w ritten u p o n by the e n v iro n m e n t. M a n y con tem p orary lib e rta ri
an s w ho draw th eir in sp iratio n from L o c k e are h ostile to the p o ssib ility
o f g en etic d iffe re n ce s in in te llig e n c e b e c a u se o f th eir c o n v ic tio n th a t
eq u al righ ts ap p ly on ly if in fact p eo p le a t b irth are tabulae rasae. W ith
th a t in m in d , c o n sid e r th ese rem ark s a b o u t h u m an in telligen ce from
L o c k e s A n E ssa y on H um an U nderstanding:
N o w th a t th ere is su ch a d ifferen ce b e tw e e n m en in respect o f th e ir

u n d erstan d in g s, 1 th in k n o bod y w h o h a s h ad any c o n v e rsatio n w ith
his n e ig h b o rs w ill q u estio n . . . . W h ic h g re at d ifferen ce in m e n s in
te lle c tu a ls, w h eth er it rises from an y d e fe c t in th e organ s of th e b o dy
p articu larly ad ap ted to th in k in g , o r in th e d u lln ess or u n tra ctab le n e ss
o f th o se fa c u ltie s for w an t of use, or, a s so m e th in k , in th e n atu ral d if
530 Living Together
fe re n ce s o f m en s souls th em selv es; or som e or all of th ese togeth er,

it m atte rs nor here to ex am in e . O n ly th is is ev id en t, th at th ere is a
d iffe re n ce o f degrees in m e n s u n d erstan d in gs, ap p re h e n sio n s, and
re aso n in g s, to so great a latitu d e th at on e may, w ith ou t d o in g injury
to m a n k in d , affirm th at th ere is a greater d ista n c e b etw een som e m en
and o th e rs in this respect, th an betw een som e m en an d so m e b e a sts /
L o c k e is strikin gly in differen t to th e source o f c o g n itiv e d ifferen ces

and strik in g ly h arsh in his ju d gm e n t ab ou t their size. B u t th at d oes n ot
m ean h e b eliev ed p eop le to h av e d ifferen t rights. T h e y are e q u al in
rights, L o c k e p roclaim ed , th ough they be un eq u al in e v e ry th in g else.
T h o se righ ts, how ever, are n eg ativ e righ ts (ro im pose c o n te m p o rary ter
m in o lo gy ): T h e y giv e all h u m an bein gs th e right not to h av e c e rtain
th ings d o n e to th em by the state or by oth er h u m an b ein gs, n o t the right
to an y th in g , e x c e p t freedom o f ac tio n .
T h is w ay o f p u ttin g it is out of tune with the m od ern sen sibility . T h e
o rig in al c o n c e p t o f equal righ ts is said to be m ean in g le ss c a n t, o u t
m od ed; ta k in g equal righ ts seriously, it is th ou gh t, requ ires e n fo rcin g
equal o u tc o m e s. T h e p re v ailin g p o litic al attitu d e is so d ism issiv e tow ard
the o ld e r c o n c e p tio n o f eq u al rights th at it is d ifficult to th in k of se ri
ous p u b lic trea tm en ts of it; the F oun d ers ju st d id n t th in k h ard en o u gh
ab ou t th a t p rob lem , it seem s to be assum ed. If he w ere aliv e today, som e
e m in e n t p o litic a l scien tists h av e argued, T h o m a s Jefferso n w ould surely
be a so c ia l d e m o c ra t or at least a N ew D eal D em o c rat.' W e are ask in g
th at you c o n sid e r the alte rn a tiv e : th at the F oun d ers w ere fully aw are o f
how u n e q u al p eo p le are, th at they did nor try to e x p la in aw ay n atu ral
in e q u a litie s, an d th at they n o n e th e le ss th ou gh t th e best way for p e o p le
to live to g e th e r w as under a system o f equal rights.
T h e F o u n d e rs w rote frankly ab o u t th e in equality o f m en. F o r T h o m a s
Je ffe rso n , it w as ob v io u s th at they w ere esp ecially u n eq u al in v irtu e an d
in te llig e n c e. H e was th an k fu l for a n atu ral aristo c rac y rh at could
c o u n te rb a la n c e the d efic ien c ies of th e oth ers, an aristo cracy o f virtue
and tale n t, w h ich N atu re h as w isely p rovid ed for the d ire c tio n o f the
in terests of so c ie ty .8 It was, he o n ce w rote, the m ost p re c io u s g ift o f
n a tu re , an d he th ough t th at th e b est g o v ern m en t w as on e th a t m ost
e fficien tly b ro u g h t the n atu ral aristocracy ro high p o sitio n s.9
Je ffe rso n saw the c o n seq u en c es o f in eq u alities o f ab ility rad iatin g
th ro u gh o u t th e in stitu tio n s o f society. T h e m ain p u rp ose o f e d u c a tio n ,
h e b e lie v e d , w as to prepare the n atu ral aristocracy to go v ern , an d h e did
n o t m in ce w ords. T h e b est g en iu ses sh o u ld be raked fro m th e rub-

bish a n n u ally by c o m p e titiv e grad in g an d e x a m in a tio n s, s e n t o n to th e
n e x t e d u c a tio n a l stag e, and finally c alled to p u b lic life .1101 B u t if th e au -
th or o f th e D e c la ra tio n of In d ep en d en c e w as by to d ay s sta n d a rd s u n re -
p en tan tly e litist, he was n o n e th e le ss a d e m o c ra t in his b e lie f th at th e
n atural aristo c rac y w as scattered w ith e q u a l han d th ro u gh a ll [of s o c i
ety s] c o n d itio n s, 11 an d in his c o n fid e n c e th a t rhe e le c to r a te h a d th e
good sen se to c h o o se th em . L e av e to th e citizen s th e free e le c t io n a n d
se p aratio n of th e aristni from th e pseu do-ah stoj', he ad vised . In g e n e r a l,
they will e le c t th e real goo d an d w ise. 1' F o r M ad iso n , th e g re a t r e
p u b lic an p rin c ip le " w as th at th e c o m m o n p e o p le w ould h a v e th e p u b -
lic-sp irited n ess and th e in form ation n ec essary to c h o o se m e n of v ir tu e
and w isd o m to go v ern th e m .1' For b o th Je ffe rso n and M a d iso n , politi
cal eq u ality w as b o th righ t an d w orkable. T h e y would h av e b e e n am aze d
by the n o tio n th at h u m an s are eq u al in a n y o th e r sense.
N o r w ere Je ffe r so n s an d M a d iso n s view s a reflection of th e ir s o u t h
ern h eritage. Jo h n A d a m s, th at q u in te sse n tia l Y ankee, agreed th a t n a t
ural aristo cracy is a fact esse n tial to be c o n sid ere d in the in stitu tio n o f
g o v e rn m e n t or, as he p u t it in a n o th e r in stan c e , I b e lie v e th ere is as
m uch in th e breed of m en as there is in th a t o f h o rse s. 11 H e w as n o t as
o p tim istic as Je ffe rso n and M ad iso n , tor h e w as keenly aw are th a t i n
tellig en c e d o es n o t n ecessarily go w ith v irtu e, an d he w as fearfu l th a t
Je ffe rso n s n atu ral aristo cracy would w ith in a few g e n e ra tio n s h a v e c e
m en ted its d e sc e n d a n ts p o sitio n s in to th a t of a ruling c a ste . B u t h e d id
n o t d o u b t th a t th e reality of h u m an in e q u a litie s was o f c e n tr a l p o litic a l
im p o rta n c e .11,1
T h e o th e r F o u n d ers, in clu d in g H a m ilto n and W a sh in g to n , r u m i
nated in th e sam e v ein ab ou t th e in e q u a lity o f m en and th e p o litic a l
im p lic atio n s o f th at in equality. In d o in g so , they w ere fo llo w in g a n a n
c ie n t tra d itio n . P o litic al p h ilo so p h ers h a v e alw ays begu n fro m th e u n
d e rstan d in g th a t g oo d p olicy m ust be in a c c o rd a n c e w ith w h at is g o o d
for h u m an b ein gs, an d th at w h at is g o o d for h u m an s m u st b e b a se d o n
an u n d e rstan d in g o f how they are sim ilar an d how they differ. A r is to tle
put it e arlie st an d p erh ap s best: A ll m en b e liev e th at ju s tic e m e a n s
eq u ality in so m e sen se. . . . T h e q u e stio n w e m ust keep in m in d is, e q u a l
ity or in e q u a lity in w hat sort of th in g . 16
T h e F o u n d e rs saw rhat m ak in g a sta b le an d ju st g o v e rn m e n t w as d if
ficult p recisely because m en w ere u n eq u al in every re sp e ct e x c e p t th e ir
rieh t to a d v a n c e th eir ow n in terests. M e n had d ifferen t an d u n e q u a l
fac u ltie s o f a c q u irin g p rop erty, M a d iso n re flec ted in The F ed eralist.17
T h is d iv e rsity w as th e very re a so n w hy righ ts o f p ro p erty w ere so im
p o rta n t a n d w hy th e p ro te c tio n o f th o se fa c u ltie s is th e first o b je c t o f
G o v e r n m e n t. B u t th e d iv ersity w as also th e d efec t o f p o p u list d e m o c
racy, b e c au se th e u n e q u a l d istrib u tio n o f p rop erty to w h ich it le d w as
th e m o st c o m m o n a n d d u rab le so u rce o f fa c tio n s. A n d fa c tio n , h e ar
gu ed , w as th e g re at d a n g e r th a t th e C o n stitu tio n so u g h t a b o v e all to
c o n fin e a n d tam e. T h e task o f g o v e rn m e n t w as to se t u n e q u al p erso n s
in to a sy stem o f law s a n d p ro ced u res th a t w ould, as n e arly as p o ssib le,
eq u alize th e ir righ ts w h ile allo w in g th e ir d ifferen ces to ex p re ss th e m
selves. T h e resu lt w ou ld n o t n ec e ssarily b e seren e or q u ie t, b u t it w ould
b e ju st. It m ig h t e v e n w ork.
In re m in d in g you o f th ese view s o f th e m en w h o fo u n d e d A m e ric a ,
w e are n o t a p p e a lin g to th eir h isto ric a l e m in e n c e , b u t to th e ir w isdom .
W e th in k th ey w ere righ t. L e t us sto p u sin g w ord s lik e factions a n d fa c
ulties an d aristoi a n d sta te in ou r ow n w ords, briefly a n d ex p licitly , h ow
an d w hy w e th in k th ey w ere righ t in w ays th a t ap p ly today.
T h e e g a lita ria n id e a l o f co n te m p o rary p o litic a l th eo ry u n d ere stim ate s
th e im p o rta n c e o f th e d ifferen ces th a t se p arate h u m a n b e in g s. It fails to
c o m e to grip s w ith h u m a n v a ria tio n . It o v e re stim a te s th e ab ility o f p o
litic a l in te rv e n tio n s to sh ap e h u m a n c h a ra c te r an d c a p a c itie s. T h e sys
tem s o f g o v e rn m e n t th a t are n ec essary to carry o u t th e e g a lita r ia n a g e n d a
ign ore th e fo rces th a t th e F o u n d ers d esc rib ed in The Federalist, w h ich
le ad in h e re n tly a n d in e v ita b ly to tyranny, th ro u g h o u t h isto ry an d across
cu ltu res. T h e se d e fe c ts in th e e g a lita ria n tra d itio n are re fle c te d in p o lit
ical e x p e rie n c e , w h ere th e failu re o f th e c o m m u n ist b lo c to c o n str u c t
h ap p y so c ie tie s is p a lp a b ly a p p a re n t a n d th e u ltim a te fa te o f e v e n th e
m ore b e n ig n e g a lita ria n m o d e l in S c a n d in a v ia is c o m in g in to q u e stio n .
T h e p e rv e rsio n s o f th e e g a lita ria n id eal th a t b e g a n w ith th e F re n c h
R e v o lu tio n a n d h a v e b e e n so p le n tifu l in th e tw e n tie th cen tu ry are n o t
ac c id e n ts o f h isto ry o r p ro d u c e d by te c h n ic a l errors in im p le m e n ta tio n .
S o m e th in g m ore in e v ita b le is a t w ork. P eo p le w h o are free to b e h a v e
d ifferen tly fro m o n e a n o th e r in th e im p o rta n t affairs o f d aily life in
e v ita b ly g e n e ra te th e so c ia l a n d e c o n o m ic in e q u a litie s th a t e g a lita r ia n
ism se e k s to sup press. T h a t, w e b e lie v e , is as c lo se to a n im m u tab le law
as th e u n c e rta in tie s o f so c io lo g y p erm it. T o red u ce in eq u a lity o f c o n d i
tio n , th e sta te m u st im p o se gre ate r a n d gre ate r uniform ity. P erh ap s th a t
is as c lo se to a n im m u tab le law as p o litic a l sc ie n c e p e rm its. In T. H .
W h ite s v e rsio n o f th e A rth u ria n legen d , T he O nce and Future King,
M e rly n tran sfo rm s y o u n g A rth u r in to a n a n t as p art o f h is e d u c a tio n in

g o v e rn an c e . In th is gu ise, A rth u r a p p ro a c h e s th e e n tra n c e to th e a n t
colon y, w h ere o v e r th e e n tra n c e are w ritten th e w ords, E V E R Y T H IN G N O T
FO R B ID D EN IS C O M P U L S O R Y .18 S u c h , in o u r view , is w h ere th e lo g ic o f th e
e g a lita ria n id eal u ltim ate ly lead s. It is a p p ro p ria te in th e a n t c o lo n y or
th e b e e h iv e bu t n o t for h u m a n b ein gs. E g a lita ria n ty ran n ies, w h eth er
o f th e Ja c o b ite o r th e L e n in ist variety, are w orse th a n in h u m a n e . T h e y
are in h u m an .
T h e sam e atm o sp h e re p re v a ils o n a sm aller sc ale w h erev er e q u a lity
c o m e s to serve as th e b a sis for a d iffuse m o ral o u tlo o k . C o n s id e r th e
m an y sm all ty ran n ies in A m e r ic a s c o n tem p o rary u n iv e rsitie s, w here it
h a s b e c o m e o b je c tio n a b le to say th a t so m e p e o p le are su p erio r to o th e r
p e o p le in an y w ay th a t is re le v a n t to life in society. N o r is th is o u tlo o k
c o n fin e d to ju d g m e n ts a b o u t p e o p le . In art, literatu re, e th ics, an d c u l
tu ral n o rm s, d ifferen ces are n o t to be ju d ged . S u c h re la tiv ism h a s b e
co m e th e m o ral h ig h g ro u n d for m an y m o d e rn c o m m e n ta to rs o n life
a n d cu lture.
E v e n th e e x iste n c e o f d ifferen ces m u st be d isc u sse d gingerly, w h en
th ey are h u m a n d ifferen ces. A s so o n as th e d iffe re n ce s are a sso c ia te d
w ith m em b ersh ip in a group , c e n so rsh ip arises. In th is b o o k , we h a v e
tro d o n o n e o f th o se m o st se n sitiv e areas by ta lk in g a b o u t e th n ic d iffer
e n c es, b u t th ere are m an y o th e rs. In w h a t re sp e c ts d o m e n differ from
w o m en ? Y oung d iffer from old ? H e te ro se x u a ls from h o m o se x u a ls? T h e
p e rm issib le answ ers, o fte n e v e n th e p erm issib le q u e stio n s, are sh arp ly
circu m scrib ed . T h e m oral o u tlo o k th a t h a s b e c o m e a sso c ia te d w ith
e q u ality h a s sp aw n ed a v o ca b u lary o f its ow n . D isc rim in a tio n , o n c e a
u sefu l w ord w ith a p raisew o rth y m ean in g , is n o w a lm o st alw ays u sed in
a p e jo ra tiv e sen se. R a c ism , sex ism , ageism , e litism all are in c o m m o n
p a rla n c e , an d th eir m e a n in g s c o n tin u e to sp read , b lo ttin g up m o re an d
m ore se m a n tic territory.
T h e id eo lo gy o f e q u ality h a s d o n e so m e go o d . F o r e x a m p le , it is n o t
p o ssib le as a p ra c tic a l m a tte r to be a n id e n tifiab le rac ist o r se x ist an d
still h o ld p u b lic o ffice. B u t m o st o f its effec ts are b a d . G iv e n th e pow er
o f co n te m p o rary n ew s m e d ia to im p rin t a n atio n w id e im ag e o v ern ig h t,
m a in stre a m p o litic a l figures h a v e fo u n d th a t th eir a lle g ia n c e to th e
rh e to ric o f e q u ality m u st e x te n d very far in d eed , for a sin g le c are le ss re
m ark c a n irretriev ab ly d a m a g e o r e v e n e n d a p u b lic career. In every day
life, th e id eo lo gy o f e q u ality c e n so rs a n d stra itja c k e ts e v e ry th in g from
p e d a g o g y to hum or. T h e id eo lo g y o f e q u ality h as stu n te d th e ran g e o f
534 Living Together
m oral d ia lo g u e to triviality. In daily life c o n v e rsatio n s, the lessons

tau g h t in p u b lic sch ools, th e kin ds ot screen p lay s or n ew sp ap er featu re
sto ries th a t p eo p le c h o o se to w rite the m oral asc e n d an cy of eq u ality
has m ad e it d ifficult to use c o n c e p ts such as virtue, e x c e lle n c e , beauty
an d a b o v e all truth.
W ith in th e realm of go v ern m en t, sm all versions o f the ev ery th in g
n o t fo rb id d e n is com p u lsory m en tality m ay be seen every w here. T h e
in form al o ld A m e ric an p rin cip le g o v ern in g p erson al b e h a v io r was that
you c o u ld d o w hatever you w an ted as long you d id n t force an y o n e else
to go a lo n g w ith you and as lon g as you let the o th er fellow g o ab o u t his
affairs w ith equal freedom . T h e sto p p in g p o in t wjas d efin e d by th e use-
ful ad ag e, Your freedom to sw ing your arm sto p s w here my n o se b e
gin s. 19 In law s great and sm all, th is p rin cip le has been p erv e rte d beyond
re c o g n itio n , as the n o tion s o f w hat co n stitu tes w here my n o se b e g in s
stre tch far o u t in to space. T h e p rac tic e of affirm ative a c tio n h as been a
classic e x a m p le o f the ev ery th in g n o t fo rb id d en is c o m p u lso ry m e n
tality, as rh e idea o f forb id d in g p eop le to d iscrim in ate by race m u tated
into th e id e a o f c o m p ellin g every on e to h elp p rod u ce eq u al o u tco m e s
by race. In rort law, the d estru ctio n of the c o n c e p t o f n e g lig e n c e grew
out o f an e x p lic itly e g alitarian view of the purpose of liab ility n o t to
redress in d iv id u al victim s for acts of irresponsibility b u t to red istribu te
goo d s m ore equitably."0 In p erso n al life, th e idea of fo rb id d in g p eop le
from in terferin g w ith m em bers o f o th er groups (b la c k s, h o m o se x u als,
w om en ) as they w ent ab ou t th eir lives has been e x ten d e d to th e id ea of
c o m p e llin g p e o p le to treat th em the sam e. It is a m ark ot how far th in gs
h ave g o n e th a t m any p eop le n o longer can see th e d istin c tio n betw een
n ot in te rfe rin g and treatin g the sa m e .
O u r view s o n all of th ese issues are d ecid ed ly trad itio n al. W e th ink
th at righ ts are em bedded in ou r freedom to act, n ot in the o b lig a tio n s
we m ay im p ose on others to act; th at equality o f rights is c ru c ial w hile
eq u ality o f o u tc o m e is not; th at c o n c e p ts such as virtue, e x c e lle n c e ,
beauty, a n d truth should be rein trod u ced in to m oral d isco u rse . W e are
c o m fo rtab le w ith the idea th at som e th in gs are better th a n o th e rs not
ju st a c c o rd in g to our su b jec tiv e p oin t o f view but ac c o rd in g to e n d u r
ing sta n d a rd s o f m erit and in feriority an d at th e sam e tim e re je c t rhe
th o u g h t th a t we (or an y on e e lse) sh ou ld h av e the right to im pose those
stan d ard s. W e are en th u siastic ab ou t d iv ersity th e rich , u n e n d in g d i
versity th a t free h u m an bein gs gen erate as a m atter of co u rse, n o t the
im p osed d iv ersity of group q u otas.
A Place far Everyone 535
A n d so we c o m e to th is fin al c h ap ter, d isc u ssin g the bro ad est p olicy

im p licatio n s o f all th a t h as gon e b efo re. W e b rin g to our re c o m m e n d a
tion s a p red isp o si tion , b eliev in g th at th e o r ig in a l A m e ric a n c o n c e p tio n s
o f h u m an e q u ality an d th e pursuit of h a p p in e ss still offer th e w isest g u id
an ce for th in k in g ab o u t how to run to d a y s A m e r ic a . T h e se h av e b een
som e o f o u r reaso n s why.
L E T T I N G P E O P L E F I N D V A L U E D P L A C E S IN S O C I E T Y
W ith th ese th o u g h ts on th e tab le, let us re tu rn to the q u estio n th at

opened th e c h ap ter: H ow should policy deal with the twin realities that peo
ple differ in intelligence for reasons that are not their fault and that intelligence
has a powerful bearing on how well people do in life? T h e answ er turns us
back to th e a n c ie n t c o n c e rn w ith p la ce.
The C m al an d a D efinition
T h e b ro ad est g o a l is a so ciety in w h ich p e o p le th ro u gh o u t the fu n c tio n al

ran ge o f in te llig e n c e c a n fin d, an d feel they h a v e found, a valu ed p lace
for th em selv es. F or v alu ed p la c e , we offer a p rag m atic d efin ition : You
occupy a valued place if other people would m iss you if you were gone. T h e
fact th at you w ould be m issed m eans th a t y o u w ere valued. R oth th e
q u ality an d q u an tity o f valued p la ce s are im p o rta n t. M o st p eop le h op e
to find a so u lm a te for life, and th at m e a n s so m e o n e w ho would m iss
you in th e w idest an d m ost in ten se way. T h e d e fin itio n cap tu res th e
reaso n why c h ild re n are so im p ortan t in d e fin in g a valu ed p lace. B u t b e
sides the q u ality o f th e valu in g, q u a n tity too is im p o rtan t. It a sin gle p e r
son w ould m iss you and n o on e else, you h a v e a fragile hold on your
p lace in society, n o m atter how m uch th a t o n e p erson cares for you. T o
h ave m any d ifferen t p eo p le w ho w ould m iss you , in m any d ifferen t parts
o f your life an d at m any levels o f in ten sity, is a h allm ark of a person
w hose p la ce is w ell an d th orough ly valu ed . O n e way of th in k in g ab o u t
policy o p tio n s is to ask w h eth er they aid or o b stru c t this goal ot c re a t
ing valu ed p laces.
Finding V alued P laces
T h e great bulk o f th e A m e ric a n p o p u la tio n is am p ly eq u ip p ed, in th eir

c o g n itiv e reso u rces an d in o th er p e rso n a l c h a r a c te ristic s, to tind valu ed
p laces in society. W e m ust em ph asize th at, b e c a u se for h u n d red s o f pages
we h av e fo cu sed o n p eo p le at th e tw o tails o f th e bell curve. N o w is a
536 Living Together
g o o d tim e to re c a ll th e p e o p le in th e b ro ad p art o f th e cu rve, b e tw e e n

th e e x tre m e s. In figu re after figu re th ro u g h o u t C h a p te r 16, th e p a tte r n
w as c o n siste n t: T h e p re v a le n c e o f th e so c ia l m ala d ie s w e review ed w as
strik in g ly c o n c e n tr a te d in th e b o tto m IQ d ec iles. B y th e tim e p e o p le
w ere e v e n a p p ro a c h in g av erag e IQ , th e p e rc e n ta g e s o f p e o p le w h o w ere
poor, h a d b a b ie s o u t o f w ed lo ck , p ro v id e d p o o r e n v iro n m e n ts for th eir
ch ild re n , or e x h ib ite d an y o th e r p ro b le m c o n stitu te d sm a ll p e rc e n ta g e s
o f th e p o p u la tio n . T ra n sla te d in to th e th em es we are a b o u t to in tro d u ce ,
th e e v id e n c e th ro u g h o u t th is b o o k su p p o rts th e p ro p o sitio n th a t m o st
p e o p le by far h a v e e n o u g h in te llig e n c e for g e ttin g o n w ith th e b u sin ess
o f life. W e b e lie v e th e p o lic ie s w e a d v o c a te w ill b e n e fit th e m as w ell,
by c re a tin g a g en erally rich er a n d m o re v ita l society, b u t it sh o u ld b e
m ad e e x p lic it: O u r so lu tio n s assu m e th a t th e av erag e A m e r ic a n is a n
asset, n o t p a rt o f th e p ro b lem .
F in din g V alued P laces I f You A r e n t Very S m a rt: T h e T rad ition al

C o n te x t
N o n e th e le ss, m illio n s o f A m e ric a n s h a v e lev els o f c o g n itiv e ab ility low

e n o u g h to m ak e th e ir liv es sta tistic a lly m u c h m ore d iffic u lt th a n life is
for m o st o th e r p e o p le . H o w m ay p o lic y h e lp or o b stru c t th e m as th ey go
a b o u t th e ir liv es? O u r th esis is th a t it u sed to b e e asie r for p e o p le w ho
are low in ab ility to fin d a v a lu e d p la c e th a n it is now .
In a sim p le r A m e ric a , b e in g c o m p a ra tiv e ly low in th e q u a litie s m e a
su red by IQ d id n o t n ec essarily affe c t th e ab ility to fin d a v a lu e d n ic h e
in society. M a n y su c h p e o p le w ork ed o n farm s. W h e n farm s w ere sm all,
te c h n o lo g y w as lim ite d to th e h o rse-d raw n p lo w a n d a few h a n d to o ls,
a n d th e sam e su b siste n c e cro p s w ere g row n year after year. P e o p le w ho
w ou ld sc o re 8 0 or 9 0 o n a n IQ te st c o u ld b e c o m p e te n t farm w orkers,
n o t c o n sp ic u o u sly d istin g u ish e d fro m m o st o th e r p e o p le in w ealth ,
h o m e, n e ig h b o rh o o d , or statu s in th e com m u n ity. M u c h th e sam e c o u ld
b e said o f a w ide v a rie ty o f sk illed an d u n sk ille d trad es. E v e n a n u n
sk illed lab o re r w ho w as n o tic e a b ly low er o n th e e c o n o m ic sc ale w as p art
o f a c o m m u n ity in w h ich m an y o th e rs w ith m an y le v e ls o f a b ility liv e d
c lo se to h im , literally an d socially. In ev itab ly , w ith te c h n o lo g ic a l a d
v a n c e s, th e n ic h e s for th e less in te llig e n t h a v e sh ru n k.
A s for th e m o st in tim a te affilia tio n s m arriag e a n d c h ild re n th ere
form erly w as little d iffere n ce b e tw e e n p e o p le o f v a ry in g ab ilitie s: T o be
m arried m e a n t to b e re sp o n sib le for e a c h oth er, a n d for th e c h ild re n o f
A Place for Everyone 53 7
th a t m arriage, in u n q u alifie d an d u n c o m p ro m isin g w ays th a t th e en tire

co m m u n ity h e ld to b e o f th e h ig h e st im p o rta n c e . T h o s e w h o m e t th o se
re sp o n sib ilitie s h a d a v a lu e d p la c e in th e c o m m u n ity by d e fin itio n .
T h o s e w h o failed c o n sp icu o u sly in th o se re sp o n sib ilitie s w ere o u tc a sts
by d e fin itio n . M e e tin g th e re sp o n sib ilitie s o f m arriag e a n d p a r e n th o o d
d id n o t tak e a lo t o f m o n ey a n d did n o t tak e h ig h in te llig e n c e . T h e com -
m u n ity p ro v id e d c lea r a n d u n d e rstan d a b le in c e n tiv e s for d o in g w h at
n e ed ed to be d o n e.
U r b a n c o m m u n itie s w ere so m e w h at d ifferen t from sm a ll to w n s in
th ese resp ec ts b u t n o t u n reco g n izab ly so. T h e to p so c io e c o n o m ic layer
m o v e d o ff to its ow n p art o f tow n, b u t th is left a b ro ad ran g e o f p e o p le
liv in g to g e th e r in th e re st o f a c ity s n e ig h b o rh o o d s, a n d th e s o c ia l fu n c
tio n in g o f th o se n e ig h b o rh o o d s sh ared m an y c h a ra c te ristic s w ith sm all
tow n s. T h e re sp o n sib ilitie s o f m arriage a n d c h ild re n w ere as cle arly d e
fin ed in u rb a n n e ig h b o rh o o d s as in rural o n es, an d su c c e ss a n d failu re
in th o se re sp o n sib ilitie s w ere as v isib ly rew arded a n d p u n ish e d .
A s for th e o th e r w ays in w h ich p e o p le fo u n d v a lu e d p la c e s for th e m
se lv es, u rb an n e ig h b o rh o o d s te e m e d w ith useful th in g s to do. A n y o n e
w ho w an te d to h a v e a p la c e in th e c o m m u n ity c o u ld fin d o n e in th e lo
c a l sc h o o l b o ard s, c h u rc h es, u n io n h alls, g ard e n clu b s, an d b e n e v o le n t
a sso c ia tio n s o f o n e so rt o r an o th er. T h e c ity g o v e rn m e n t p ro v id e d th e
p o lic e w h o w alk ed th e lo c a l b e a t. It ran th e co u rth o u se a n d p u b lic h o s
p ita l d ow n to w n , an d p erh ap s a n o rp h a n a g e an d a h o m e fo r th e aged ,
b u t o th erw ise th e n e ig h b o rh o o d h a d to d o for itse lf ju st a b o u t e v e ry
th in g th a t n e e d e d d o in g to k e e p th e so c ia l c o n tr a c t o p e ra tiv e a n d d aily
life o n a n e v e n k eel. S o m e o n e w ho w as m e n ta lly a b it d u ll m ig h t n o t
be c h o se n to h e a d up th e p a rish c lo th in g d riv e b u t w as c e rtain ly e lig i
ble to h e lp ou t. A n d th e se w ere ju st th e organ ized a sp e c ts o f c o m m u
n ity life. T h e u n o rgan ized w eb o f in te ra c tio n s w as e v e n m o re e x te n siv e
an d p ro v id e d still m o re w ays in w h ich p e o p le o f a ll a b ilitie s, in clu d in g
th o se w ith o u t m u c h in te llig e n c e , c o u ld fit in.
It is n o t n ec essary to id ealize o ld -fa sh io n e d n e ig h b o rh o o d s or old-
fash io n e d fa m ilie s to a c c e p t th e d e sc rip tio n w e h a v e ju st g iv e n . A ll sorts
o f h u m a n p ro b lem s, from w retch ed m arriages to n e ig h b o rh o o d feu d s
a n d h u m a n m isery o f every o th e r sort, c o u ld b e fo u n d . P o v erty w as ra m
p a n t (re c a ll from C h a p te r 5 th a t m ore th a n h a lf o f th e p o p u la tio n p rio r
to W ar II w as in p o v erty by to d a y s d e fin itio n ). E v e n so, w h e n th e re
sp o n sib ilitie s o f m arriag e a n d p a re n th o o d w ere c le a r a n d u n c o m p ro
m isin g a n d w h en th e stu ff o f c o m m u n ity life h a d to b e carrie d o u t by
538 Living Together
th e n e ig h b o rh o o d or it w o u ld n t g e t d o n e, so c ie ty w as fu ll o f a c c e ssib le
v a lu e d p la c e s for p e o p le o f a b ro ad ran g e o f ab ilities.
F in d in g V alued P laces I f You A r e n t Very S m a rt: T h e C o n tem p o rary

C o n te x t
O u t o f th e m y riad th in g s th a t h a v e c h a n g e d sin ce th e b e g in n in g o f th e
century, tw o o v e rla p p in g p h e n o m e n a h a v e m o st affe c te d p e o p le w ith
m o d e st a b ilitie s: It h a s b e c o m e h ard e r to m ak e a liv in g to su p p o rt th e
v a lu e d ro les o f sp o u se, p aren t, an d n eigh b o r, an d fu n c tio n s h a v e b e e n
strip p e d from o n e m a in so u rce o f v a lu e d p la c e , th e n e ig h b o rh o o d .
T he E C O N O M IC A R G U M E N T . T h e c o g n itiv e elite h a s p u lle d aw ay from

th e rest o f th e p o p u la tio n ec o n o m ica lly , b e c o m in g m o re p ro sp ero u s
e v e n as real w ages in th e rest o f th e e c o n o m y sta g n a te d o r fell. T h e di-
v e rg e n c e h a s b e e n m o st c o n sp ic u o u s in th e lo w est-sk illed jo b s. F rom
th e ir h ig h p o in t in 1 973, th e m e d ia n e arn in g s o f fu ll-tim e w ork ers in
g e n e ra l n o n fa rm lab o r h a d fa lle n by 3 6 p e rc e n t by 1 990 , far m o re th a n
for an y o th e r categ o ry .1211 A stro n g b a c k isn t w orth w h at it u sed to be.
W orkers in th o se o c c u p a tio n s h a v e b e e n d em o ralized . T h e y h a v e lo st
th e ir v a lu e d p la c e in th e w ork p lace.
S o far, w e agree th a t e c o n o m ic s p lays a n im p o rta n t role in ta k in g v a l
u e d p la c e s in th e w o rk p lac e from th o se w ith low c o g n itiv e ability. B u t
th e arg u m en t ty p ically w iden s, asse rtin g th a t e c o n o m ic c h a n g e also e x
p la in s w hy p e o p le in lo w -sk ill o c c u p a tio n s e x p e rie n c e th e lo ss o f o th e r
v a lu e d p la c e s e v id e n c e d by fa llin g m arriage rate s a n d risin g ille g itim a cy :
M e n in lo w -sk ill jo b s n o lo n g er m a k e e n o u g h m o n ey to su p p o rt a fa m
ily, it is said . T h is c o m m o n a rg u m en t is to o sim p listic . In c o n sta n t d o l
lars, th e in c o m e o f a fu ll-tim e, y ear-rou n d m a le w ork er in g e n e ra l
n o n fa rm la b o r in 1991 w as a t th e le v e l o f h is c o u n te rp a rt in 1 958, w h en
th e n o rm w as still o n e in c o m e p er fam ily, m arriag e rate s w ere as h ig h as
ever, an d ille g itim a cy w as a fra c tio n o f its c u rren t lev els. W e m ay lo o k
b a c k still furth er: T h e low -sk ill lab o rer in 1991 m ad e a b o u t tw ice th e
real in co m e o f h is c o u n te rp a rt in 1 9 2 0 , a year w h en n o o n e th o u g h t to
q u e stio n w h eth er a lab o rer c o u ld su p p o rt a fam ily .1221 E c o n o m ic s is re l
e v a n t in u n d e rsta n d in g h o w it h a s b e c o m e h ard e r for p e o p le o f m o d e st
a b ilitie s to fin d a v a lu e d p la c e , an d so lu tio n s sh o u ld tak e e c o n o m ic s in to
a c c o u n t. B u t e c o n o m ic s is n o t d ec isiv e.
S T R IP P IN G F U N C T IO N S FR O M T H E N E IG H B O R H O O D . C o m m u n itie s are rich

a n d v ita l p la c e s to th e e x te n t th a t th ey e n g a g e th eir m em b ers in th e
stu ff o f life b irth , d e a th , raisin g ch ild re n , m ak in g a liv in g , h e lp in g

frien d s, sin g in g in th e lo c a l c h o ir or p lay in g o n th e so ftb all te a m , cop-
in g w ith p ro b lem s, se ttin g e x a m p le s, w elco m in g , c h a stisin g , c e le b r a t
ing, re c o n c ilin g , an d n e g o t ia t in g / 3
If th ere is o n e th e m e o n w h ic h o b servers fro m b o th left a n d rig h t re
ce n tly so u n d very m u c h alik e, it is th a t so m e th in g v ita l an d im p o rta n t
h a s d ra in e d o u t o f A m e r ic a n c o m m u n itie s.24 M o st ad u lts n e e d so m e
th in g to d o w ith th eir liv es o th e r th a n g o in g to w ork, an d th a t so m e
th in g c o n sists o f b e in g stitc h e d into, a fab ric o f fam ily an d com m u n ity.
In th e p re c e d in g ch ap ter, w e a llu d e d to th e fed eral d o m in a tio n o f p u b
lic p o lic y th a t h a s a u g m e n te d th e c o g n itiv e e lite s p o litic a l le v e rag e d u r
in g th e last th irty years. T h e sa m e p ro c ess h a s h a d th e c o lla te ra l e ffect
o f strip p in g th e n e ig h b o rh o o d o f m u ch o f th e stu ff o f life. F o r w h at
se e m e d lik e su fficie n t reaso n s a t th e tim e, C o n g r e ss a n d p re sid e n ts h a v e
d e e m e d it n ec essary to rem o v e m ore an d m ore fu n c tio n s from th e n e ig h
b o rh o o d . T h e en tire so c ia l w elfare system , serv ice s a n d c a sh p ay m e n ts
alik e, m ay b e v iew ed in th a t ligh t. C e r ta in task s su c h as c a rin g fo r th e
poor, for e x a m p le w ere d e e m e d to be to o d iffic u lt o r to o p o o rly p e r
fo rm ed by th e sp o n ta n e o u s efforts o f n e ig h b o rh o o d s a n d v o lu n tary o r
g an izatio n s, a n d h e n c e w ere tran sferred . T h e sta te s h av e jo in e d in th is
p ro cess. W h e th e r fed eral a n d sta te p o lic y m ak ers w ere righ t to th in k th a t
n e ig h b o rh o o d s h a d faile d a n d th a t th e c en tralized g o v e rn m e n t h a s d o n e
b e tte r is still a su b je c t o f d e b a te , as is th e n e t e ffe c t o f th e tran sfers, b u t
th e tran sfers d id in d eed o c c u r a n d th ey strip p e d n e ig h b o rh o o d s o f tr a
d itio n a l fu n c tio n s.25
T h e c o g n itiv e elite m ay n o t d e te c t th e d e c lin in g v ita lity in th e lo
c a l com m u n ity. F o r m an y o f th em , th e h o u se is im p o rta n t its size, lo
c a tio n , view, gro u n d s. T h e y m ay w an t th e righ t k in d o f ad d re ss a n d th e
righ t k in d o f n eig h b o rs. B u t th eir liv es are c e n te re d o u tsid e a g e o
g rap h ic c o m m u n ity ; th eir p ro fe ssio n a l a sso c ia te s a n d frie n d s m ay b e
sc a tte re d o v e r m ile s o f su burbs, o r for th a t m a tte r acro ss th e n a tio n an d
th e w orld. F or large se g m e n ts o f A m e r ic a n society, h ow ever, th e g e o
g rap h ic n e ig h b o rh o o d is th e m ajo r p o te n tia l resou rce for in fu sin g life
w ith m u c h o f its m e an in g . E v e n th e c o g n itiv e e lite n e e d s lo c a l c o m
m u n ities, if n o t for itself, th e n for th o se o f its c h ild re n w ho h a p p e n n o t
to la n d a t th e to p o f th e c o g n itiv e ab ility d istrib u tio n . T h e m assiv e
tran sfer o f fu n c tio n s from th e lo c ality to th e g o v e rn m e n t h a s strip p e d
n e ig h b o rh o o d s o f th e ir tr a d itio n a l sh are d tasks. In ste a d , we h a v e n e ig h
b o rh o o d s th a t are m erely lo c a litie s, n o t c o m m u n itie s o f p e o p le te n d
540 Li ving Together
in g to th eir co m m u n al affairs. V alued p la ce s in a n e ig h b o rh o o d are

c re a te d on ly to th e e x te n t th a t th e p eop le in a n e ig h b o rh o o d h av e
v a lu e d task s to do.
P eo p le w h o h a v e n ev er lived in su ch a n eig h b o rh o o d and as tim e
g o e s o n th is in clu d es m ore an d m ore o f th e c o g n itiv e e lite an d the
afflu e n t in g e n e ra l o fte n find th is hard to believe. It is a n o th e r case
o f th e iso la tio n we d iscu ssed in C h a p te r 21: T h ey m ay read ab o u t such
c o m m u n itie s in b o ok s, bu t surely they no lon ger e x ist in real life. But
th e y do. T h u m b th ro u gh a few w eeks issues of the n ew sp ap er from
an y sm all tow n , an d you will find an A m e ric a th at is still rep le te w ith
fu n d -ra isin g suppers for th e local ch ild w ho h a s can cer, d riv es to
c o lle c t fo o d an d c lo th in g for a fam ily th at h as suffered a reverse, and
e v e n barn raisin gs. T h e y m ay exist as well (th o u gh they are less well
d o c u m e n te d ) in u rb an w ork in g-class n eigh b o rh o o d s th at h a v e m a n
ag e d to re ta in th eir identity. It is through such ac tiv itie s th at m u ch of
th e real g o o d for th e d isa d v a n ta g e d is acco m p lish ed . B ey o n d th at, they
h a v e a c ru c ial role, so hard to see from a W ash in gto n office, o f c r e a t
in g ways for p eo p le o f a w ide level o f in co m es and a b ilitie s to play a
p art. It c re a te s w ays for th em to be know n not ju st as a n am e but as
a h elpfu l fellow , a useful p erson to know, th e w om an you c an alw ays
c o u n t on. It c reates w ays in w h ich you would be m issed if you were
gone.
T h u s arises our first g en eral p olicy prescrip tion : A wide range o f social
fuiictions should be restored to the neighborhood when possible and otherwise
to the municipality. T h e reaso n for d o in g so, in the c o n te x t of th is bo ok,
is n o t to sa v e m oney, n o t e v e n b ecau se such services w ill be p ro v id ed
m o re h u m an ely an d efficien tly by n eig h b o rh o o d s (th o u g h we b e lie v e
t h a t g e n erally to be th e c a se ), bu t because th is is on e o f th e best ways
to m u ltiply th e valu ed p la ce s th a t p eop le c a n fill. A s th e c h a p te r c o n
tin u e s, we w ill offer som e o th e r p ossib ilities for ac c o m p lish in g th is and
c o lla te ra l o b je c tiv e s. B u t before argu in g ab ou t how it is to be d o n e , we
h o p e th a t th ere c an be w ide agreem en t on the im p o rtan ce o f th e goal:
In a d e c e n t p o stin d u stria l society, n eigh b o rh o o d s sh all n o t h a v e lost
th e ir im p o rta n c e as a so u rce of h u m an satisfac tio n s and as a g e n e ra to r
o f v alu ed p la ce s th at all so rts o f p eo p le c an fill. G o v e rn m e n t p olicy can
d o m u ch to fo ste r th e v itality o f n eigh b o rh o o d s by trying to d o less for
th e m .
S IM P L IF Y IN G R U L E S
T h e th esis o f th is se c tio n m ay be su m m arized q u ick ly: A s o f the end o f

th e tw en tieth cen tury, rhe U n ite d S t a t e s is ru n by rules th a t are c o n g e
nial to p e o p le w ith h igh IQ s and th a t m ak e life m ore d ifficu lt for every
on e else. T h is is true in th e areas o f c rim in a l ju stic e , m arriage and
d iv o rce, w elfare an d tax policy, an d b u sin e ss law, am o n g oth e rs. It is true
o f rules th at h a v e b een in ten d ed to h e lp o rd in ary p e o p le rules th at
govern sc h o o lin g , m ed ical p rac tic e , th e la b e lin g o f go o d s, to pick som e
e x am p les. It h as h a p p e n e d n o t b e c au se th e c o g n itiv e e lite con sciou sly
usurped rhe w ritin g o f th e rules b u t b ecau se o f the c o g n itiv e stra tific a
tion d escrib ed th ro u g h o u t the b o o k . T h e tren d h as affe cte d not ju st
th ose at rhe low end o f rhe c o g n itiv e d istrib u tio n bu t ju st ab ou t every
body w ho is n o t p art of th e c o g n itiv e an d e c o n o m ic elites.
T h e system s h a v e b een c reated , bit by b it, o v e r d e c ad es, by people
who th in k th at c o m p lic a te d , so p h istic a te d o p e ra tio n a liz a tio n s o f fair
ness, ju stic e , an d righ t an d w rong are e th ic a lly su p erio r to sim p le, black-
an d -w h ite v ersio n s. T h e c o g n itiv e e lite m ay n o t be satisfied with these
system s as they sta n d at any giv en p o in t, b u t h o w ev er th ey m ay reform
th em , the sy stem s are sure to b e c o m e m ore c o m p le x . A d d itio n ally , c o m
plex system s are p recisely th e o n es th a t giv e th e c o g n itiv e e lite the g re at
est c o m p e titiv e a d v a n ta g e . D e c ip h e rin g c o m p le x ity is o n e o f d ie things
that c o g n itiv e ab ility is m ost d irectly g oo d for.
W e h av e in m in d tw o ways in w h ich th e ru les g e n e ra te d by the c o g
n itiv e elite are m ak in g life m ore d iffic u lt for e v e ry o n e else. E ach requires
som ew h at m ore d e ta ile d e x p la n a tio n .
M ak in g It E a sie r to M a k e a Living
First c o m e all th e rules th at m ake life m ore d iffic u lt for p e o p le w ho are

trying to n a v ig a te everyday life. In lo o k in g fo r ex am p les, the 1040 in
com e tax form is su c h an easy target th a t it n e ed on ly be m en tio n e d to
m ake rhe p o in t. B u t th e sam e c o m p lic a tio n s an d c o n fu sio n s apply to a
sin gle w om an w ith ch ild re n se e k in g g o v e rn m e n t a ssista n c e or a person
who is trying to o p e n a d ry -clean in g sh o p . A s th e c o g n itiv e elite busily
goes ab o u t m ak in g th e w orld a b e tte r p la c e , it is n o t so im p ortan t to
th em th at they are c o m p lic a tin g o rd in ary liv e s. Its n o t so c o m p lica te d
to them .
542 Living Together
T h e sa m e burden of c o m p lic a tio n s th at are on ly a n u isan c e ro p e o

ple w h o are sm art are m uch m ore o f a barrier to p eo p le w ho are n o t. In
m any c a se s, such barriers effectively block o ff av en u es for p e o p le w ho
are n o t c o g n itiv e ly eq u ip p ed to struggle th ro u gh the bureau cracy. In
o th e r c ase s, they reduce th e m argin o f su ccess so m u ch th at they m ake
the d iffe re n ce betw een su ccess and failure. S w eat eq u ity , th o u g h the
p h rase itse lf h as b een recently co in ed , is as d istin c tiv e ly an A m e ric a n
c o n c e p t as eq uality before th e law and liberty. You cou ld get ah ead
by p la in h ard work. N o o n e would stan d in your way. T o d ay th at is no
lon ger true. A m eric an society has erected barriers to in d iv id u al sw ear
equity, by sayin g, in effect, O n ly people w ho are good at n av ig a tin g
c o m p le x ru les need apply. A n y o n e w ho h as tried to o p en or run a sm all
b u sin ess in recen t years c a n supply ev id en c e of how fo rm id ab le th ose
barriers h a v e becom e.
C re d e n tia lism is a closely related problem . It goes all rhe way up rhe
co g n itiv e ran g e th e P h.D . is o ften referred to as th e u n io n c a r d by
grad u ate stu d e n ts who w ant to b ecom e college professo rs bur ir is e s
p ecially irksom e and ob stru ctiv e for o c c u p atio n s furth er d ow n th e la d
der. In creasin gly, o c c u p atio n s m ust be licensed, w h eth er th e serv ice
in v o lv e s b arb erin g or tak in g care of n eigh b orh o od c h ild re n . T h e th e
ory is p ersu asiv e do you w an t so m eo n e tak in g care o f your c h ild w ho
is not q u alifie d ? but the p ractice typically m ean s ju m p in g th ro u gh b u
reau cratic h o o p s th at h av e tittle to d o w ith o n e s ab ility to d o th e job.
T h e rise o f lic en sin g is b o th a sym ptom an d a cau se of d im in ish in g p er
son al ties, a lo n g with the m utual trust th at goes wirh th o se ties. T h e li
c e n sin g m ay h av e som e sm all c ap ac ity to filter our rhe least c o m p e te n t,
but th e b en efits are often ou tw eigh ed by th e c o sts of th e in creased bu
re au cratizatio n .
E n o u gh ex am p les. A m e ric an society is rife w ith th em . In m any ways,
life is m ore co m p lica ted th an it used to be, and th e re s n o th in g to he
d on e a b o u t it. But as the c o g n itiv e elite has com e to pow er, it h as trailed
in its w ake a d etritus of c o m p le x itie s as w ell, in d ivid u ally m inor, th ar
to g e th e r h a v e reshaped so ciety so thar the av erage p erson h as a m uch
to u g h er tim e run n in g his ow n life. O u r policy re c o m m e n d a tio n is to
stop it an d strip away the n o n sen se. C o n sid e r rhe co sts o f co m p le x ity
itself. R e tu rn to th e assu m p tio n th at in A m e ric a the g o v e rn m e n t has
n o b u sin e ss g e ttin g in p e o p le s way ex c e p t for the m ost c o m p e llin g re a
son s, w irh c o m p e llin g required to m eet a stiff d efin itio n .
M aking It E asier to Live a Virtuous Life
W e start w ith th e su p p o sitio n th a t a lm o st e v e ry o n e is cap ah le o f b e in g

a m orally a u to n o m o u s h u m an bein g m o st o f th e rim e and g iv en su ita b le
circu m stan ces. P o litic al sc ie n tist Ja m e s Q . W ilso n h as put th is case e lo -
quenrly in The M oral Sense, c allin g o n a w id e ran ge o f so cial s c ie n c e
fin din gs to su p p o rt an old but lately u n fa sh io n a b le truth: H u m an b e in g s
in gen eral are c a p a b le of d e c id in g b etw een rig h t an d w rong.26 T h is d o e s
not m ean , how ever, th at every on e is c a p a b le of d ec id in g hetw een rig h t
and w ron g w ith rhe sam e so p h istic a tio n a n d n u an ce s. T h e d iffe re n ce
betw een p e o p le o f low c o g n itiv e ab ility an d th e rest o f society m ay be
put in term s of a m etap h o r: E v eryon e h as a m o ra l com pass, but so m e of
th ose c o m p a sse s are m ore su scep tib le to m a g n e tic storm s than o th e rs.
First, c o n sid er crim e , th en m arriage.
C'RIMF.. Im ag in e liv in g in a so ciety w here rh e rules about crim e are s im

ple an d th e c o n se q u e n c e s are equ ally sim p le . C r im e con sists o f a few
o b vio u sly w ron g ac ts: assau lt, rape, m urder, robbery, theft, trespass, d e
stru ctio n o f a n o th e r s property, fraud. S o m e o n e w ho co m m its a crim e is
p robably c a u g h t anti alm o st certain ly p u n ish e d . T h e p u n ish m e n t a l
m ost certain ly hurts (it is m e an in g fu l). P u n ish m e n t follow s a rre st
quickly, w ith in a m atte r o f days or w eeks. T h e m em bers of the so c ie ty
su bscribe to th e u n d erly in g c o d e s of c o n d u c t w ith en th u siasm and n e a r
un an im ity. T h e y teac h and en fo rce th em w h e n e v e r ap propriate. L iv in g
in such a w orld, th e m oral co m p ass sh ow s sim p le , easily u n d erstoo d d i
rection s. N o r th is n o rth , sou th is so u th , rig h t is righ t, w rong is w ron g.
N o w im ag in e th a t all the rules are m ad e m o re c o m p lica ted . T h e n u m
ber of ac ts d efin e d as crim es h as m u ltip lied , so th a t m any th in gs th a t are
crim es are n o t n early as o b vio u sly w ron g" as so m e th in g like robbery o r
assau lt. T h e lin k betw een m oral tra n sg re ssio n and c o m m ittin g crim e is
m ade h ard er to u n d erstan d . Few er crim es lead to an arrest. Few er a rre sts
lead to p ro se c u tio n . M an y tim es, the p ro se c u tio n s are n ot for so m e th in g
rhe accu sed p erso n d id but for an o ffen se th a t the d efen se law yer a n d
the p ro sec u to r agreed upon. M an y tim es, p e o p le w ho are p ro secu ted are
let off, th o u g h ev ery o n e (in c lu d in g th e a c c u se d ) ack n o w led ges th a t th e
p erson w as guilty. W h e n p e o p le are c o n v ic te d , th e co n se q u e n ces h a v e
no a p p are n t c o n n e c tio n to how m u ch h a r m th ey h av e don e. T h e s e
ev en ts are ty p ically sp read out ov er m o n th s a n d so m etim es years. T o to p
it all off, e v e n th e w ro n gn ess o f th e b a sic c rim e s is calle d in to q u e s-
544 Lining Together
rion. In th e so ciety a t large (an d tran slated o n to the te le v isio n and

m ovie sc re e n s), it is c o m m o n ly argued th at robbery, for e x a m p le , is n ot
alw ays w ron g if it is in a g o o d cau se (ste a lin g m ed icin e to sav e a dying
w ife) o r if it is in resp on se to som e ex tern al c o n d itio n (e x p lo ita tio n ,
racism , e tc .). A t every level, it. b eco m es fash io n a b le to p o in t o u t the
c o m p le x itie s o f m oral d ec isio n s, and all the ways in w hich th in g s th at
m igh t seem w ron g at first g lan ce are really righ t w hen p rop erly a n
alyzed.
T h e tw o w orlds we h av e d escribed are n o t far rem oved from th e c o n
trast b e tw e e n the crim in al ju stice system in the U n ite d S ta te s as re
cently as th e 1950s and th at system as o f the 1990s. W e are arg u in g th at
a p erson w ith co m p a rativ ely low in telligen ce, w hose tim e horizon is
sh ort an d a b ility to b a lan ce m any c o m p e tin g and c o m p lex in ce n tiv e s is
low, h a s m u ch m ore d ifficulty follow in g a m oral c o m p a ss in the 1990s
than h e w ould h av e in th e 1950s. Put aside your feelin gs ab o u t w h eth er
these c h a n g e s in th e crim in al ju stic e system represent p rogress. S im p ly
co n sid er th em as a m ag n etic storm as a set o f ch an g e s th at m ak e rhe
need le p o in tin g to right a n d w ron g w aver erratically if you h a p p e n to
be lo o k in g a t the crim in al ju stic e system from the p e rsp e ctiv e of a per
son w ho is n o t esp ecially bright. People of lim ited in te llig e n c e c a n lead
m oral liv es in a society th at is run on the basis of T h o u sh a lt n o t ste a l.
T h e y find it m uch h ard er to lead m oral lives in a society th a t is run on
the basis o f T h o u sh a lt nor steal unless there is a really g o o d reason
to .1271
T h e p o licy p rescrip tion is th at the crim in al ju stice system sh o u ld be
m ade simpler. T h e m e an in g o f crim in al o ffen ses used to he c le a r a n d o b
je c tiv e , an d so were the c o n seq u en ces. It is w orth trying to m ak e them
so again .
M a r r ia g e . It has b e c o m e m u c h m o re d iffic u lt for a person o f lo w c o g

n itiv e a b ilit y to figure o u t w h y m arriage is a good t h in g , a n d , o n c e in a
m arriage , m o re d iffic u lt ro figure o u t w hy o n e s h o u ld stick w it h it
th r o u g h bad tim es. T h e m a g n e ric storm has .swept th r o u g h fro m m a n y
d ire c tio n s.
T h e se x u a l revo lu tion is rhe m ost o b v io u s culprit. T h e old bargain
from th e m a n s p o in t ot view get m arried, b ecau se th a ts th e on ly way
y ou re g o in g to be ab le to sleep w ith th e lady w as th e k in d o f in c e n
tive th a t d id nor require a lot o f in tellect to process an d h ad an a ll
A Place jar Everyone 545
pow erful effect o n beh avio r. R e sto rin g it is n o t fe asib le by any (re a so n
ab le) p olicy we c a n th in k o f
Rut the sta te h a s in terfered as w ell to m ak e it m ore d ifficu lt for p e o
ple w ith little in te llig e n c e to d o th a t th in g fin d a c o m p a tib le partner
and get m arried th a t c o n stitu te s th e m o st a c c e ssib le and rich est o f all
valued p laces. M a rria g e fills a v ital role in p e o p le s liv es to th e ex ten t
th at it is h allo w ed as an in stitu tio n an d as a re latio n sh ip unlike any
other. M arriage is satisfy in g to th e e x te n t th a t so cie ty v a lid a te s these
p ro p o sitio n s: Yes, you m ay h av e a baby o u tsid e m arriage if you ch oose ;
hut it isn t th e sa m e . Yes, you m ay live w ith so m e o n e w ith ou t m arry
ing, but it isn t th e s a m e . Yes, you m ay say th a t you are co m m itte d to
so m eo n e w ith o u t m arryin g, but it isn t th e s a m e .
O n c e sex w as n o lon ger p lay in g as im p o rta n t a role in the d e cisio n to
marry, it w as e sse n tia l th at th ese o th e r u n iq u e a ttrib u te s o f m arriage be
h igh lig h ted an d rein fo rced . B u t th e o p p o site h a s h ap p e n e d . R epeated ly,
the p rero gativ es an d re sp o n sib ilitie s th at used to be lim ited to m arriage
h av e sp illed o v er in to n o n m a rita l re la tio n sh ip s, w h eth er it is the rights
and re sp o n sib ilitie s of a n un m arried father, m e d ic a l coverage tor sam e-
sex partn ers, or p a lim o n y cases. O n c e th e law say s, W ell, in a legal sense,
livin g to g eth er is th e sa m e , w hat is th e p o in t o f g e ttin g m arried?
For m ost p e o p le , th ere are still an sw ers to th a t q u estio n . E ven given
the d im in ish ed legal statu re of m arriag e, m a rria g e c o n tin u es to h ave
u n ique value. Rut to see th ose v alu es tak e s fo re th o u g h t ab ou t the lon g
term d ifferen ces b etw een livin g to g e th e r and b e in g m arried, sen sitivity
to m any in tan g ib le s, and an a p p re c ia tio n o f se c o n d -h an d and third-
h an d c o n se q u e n c e s. A s C h a p te r 8 s e v id e n c e a b o u t m arriage rates im
plies, p eo p le low o n th e in te llig e n c e d istrib u tio n are less likely to think
th rough th o se issu es th an others.
O u r p olicy p re sc rip tio n in th is in sta n c e is to return m arriage to its
form erly un iqu e legal statu s. If you are m arried , you tak e on ob lig atio n s.
If you are n o t m arried , you d o n t. In p a rtic u la r, we urge th at m arriage
on ce ag ain b e c o m e th e so le legal in stitu tio n th ro u g h w hich righ ts and
re sp o n sib ilities re g ard in g c h ild ren are e x e rc ise d . If you are an u n m ar
ried m oth er, you h a v e n o legal basis for d e m a n d in g th at the fath e r of
th e ch ild p ro v id e su p po rt. If you are an u n m arrie d father, you h av e no
legal sta n d in g reg ard in g the c h ild n o t e v e n a righ t to see the ch ild , let
alo n e any b a sis h o n o re d by so ciety for c la im in g h e or sh e is yours or
th at you are a fath e r.
546 Living Together
W e d o n o t ex p ec t su c h c h a n g e s m iracu lously to resu scitate m arriage

in th e low est c o g n itiv e c la sse s, bu t they are a step in the retu rn to a sim -
p ie r v a lu a tio n of it. A fam ily is u n iqu e and highly d esirab le . T o start on e,
y o u h av e to get m arried. T h e role of the state in resto rin g th e rew ards
o f m arriage is to v alid ate o n c e again th e rew ards th at m arriage n atu rally
c a rrie s w ith it.
M o re G en eral Im plications fo r Policy
C r im e and m arriage are on ly e x a m p le s o f a gen eral p rin cip le: M o d ern

A m e ric a n society c an be sim p lified . N o law o f n atu re says th at the in
c re a sin g c o m p lex ity o f tec h n o lo g y m ust be m atch ed by a new c o m
p le x ity in th e way th e n a tio n is govern ed . T h e in creasin g c o m p le x ity of
te c h n o lo g y follow s from th e fu n c tio n s it serves. T h e in cre asin g com -
p le x ity of go v ern m en t d o e s n o t. O fte n the co m p le x itie s in tro d u ced by
te c h n o lo g y require high ly so p h istic a te d analysis before g oo d law an d re g
u la tio n can be d evelop ed . B u t as a rule o f thum b, th e m ore so p h istic a te d
th e an alysis, the sim p ler th e p o lic ies can be. Policy is usually c o m p li
c a te d b ecau se it h as been b u ilt in crem en tally through a p o litic a l p rocess,
n o t b ecau se it has needed to becom e m ore c o m p lica te d . T h e tim e h as
c o m e to m ake sim p lific atio n a to p priority in reform ing p o lic y n o t for
a h an dful o f regulation s but ac ro ss th e board.
M o re broadly, we urge th a t it is p ossib le o n ce ag ain to m ak e a core of
c o m m o n law, com bin ed w ith th e origin al c o n c e p ts of n e g lig e n c e and
liab ility in tort law, the m e ch a n ism for running so cie ty easily u n d er
sto o d by all and a basis for th e straightforw ard lessons th at p aren ts at
a ll levels of c o g n itiv e ab ility ab o v e the low est c a n te ac h th eir c h ild
ren ab o u t h ow to b eh ave as they grow up. We readily ack n o w le d g e
t h a t m od ern ity requires so m e a m p lific atio n s o f th is sim p le m e ch a n ism ,
b u t th e n atio n n eed s to th in k th rough th ose am p lific a tio n s from th e
le g al eq u iv a le n t of zero-based bu d getin g. A s m atters stan d , th e legal
e d ific e has becom e a lab y rin th th at only th e rich and th e sm art c an
n a v ig a te .
B L A N K S U N F IL L E D
W e h av e presen ted w hat we b eliev e n eed s to be d on e. W e also u n d e r

sta n d th at a co m m o n resp o n se will be incredulity, for d ifferen t readers
w ill in terp ret rhe lon g c h a p te rs th at h av e com e before as a m an ife sto
fo r co m p le te ly differen t k in d s o f p olicy in itiatives. S p e cific ally , tw o lin es
o f argu m en t are likely to follow from th is b o o k . T o som e, we will h a v e

m ade a case for in creased in co m e re d istrib u tio n . T o oth ers, we will h a v e
m ade a case for ste p s to m an ip u late th e fe rtility of p eop le w ith h ig h
and low IQ s. W e will be pleased if the b o o k le a d s to a vigorou s d iscu s-
sion of th ese issues, but we h av e ju st a few w ord s to say ab ou t th em h ere.
D ealin g with Incom e
Ever sin ce m ost p e o p le q u it b eliev in g rh at a p e r so n s in co m e on e a rth

reflects G o d s ju d g m e n t of h is w orth, it h as b e e n argued th at in com e d is
tribu tio n s are in h eren tly unfair; m o st w ealth y p e o p le do n ot d e se rv e
their w ealth nor th e p o o r th eir poverty. T h a t b ein g the case, it is a p
propriate tor so c ie tie s to take from the rich a n d giv e to th e poor. T h e
statistica l re la tio n sh ip we h av e d o c u m e n te d b et w een low c o g n itiv e a b il
ity an d in co m e is m ore ev id en c e th at rhe w o rld is n ot fair.
Rut it is n o t new s th at the w orld is unfair. You knew before read in g
this book th at in co m e d ifferen ces arise fro m m an y arbitrary causes, s o
c io lo gical and p sy c h o lo g ic al, besides d iffe re n c e s in in telligen ce. A ll o f
them are reflected in co rre latio n s o f v a ry in g sizes, w hich m ean all of
them are ridd led w ith e x c e p tio n s. T h is c o m p lic a te s solu tion s. W h e n
ever in d iv id u al c a se s are ex am in e d , d iffe re n c e s in circu m stan ces will be
found th at do reflect th e in d iv id u a ls fau lt or m e rit. T h e d ata in this b o ok
support old arg u m en ts for su p p le m e n tin g rhe in co m e o f the poor w ith
out g iv in g any new g u id an ce for how to d o it.
T h e ev id e n c e ab o u t co g n itiv e ab ility c a u se s us to be sy m p ath etic to
the straigh tfo rw ard p ro p o sitio n th at tryin g h a r d ou gh t to be rew arded.
O ur p rescrip tio n , borrow in g from the c a se m a d e by p o litical sc ie n tist
D av id E llw ood , is th at p eo p le w ho work full tim e sh ou ld n o t be too p o o r
to h av e a d e c e n t stan d a rd of livin g, e v e n if th e kin ds o f work they c a n
do are n o t h igh ly valu ed in the m a rk e tp la c e .2h W e do n ot put this a s a
p rin ciple o f g o v e rn m e n t for all c o u n trie s g e ttin g everybody our o f
poverty is n o t an o p tio n in m ost o f the w orld but it is ap p ro p riate for
rich c o u n tries to try to do.
H ow ? T h e re is n o e c o n o m ica lly p erfect a lte rn a tiv e . A n y g o v e rn m e n t
su p p lem en t of w ages p ro d u ces n e g a tiv e e ffe c ts o f m any kinds. S u ch d e
fects are n o t th e resu lts o f b ad p olicy d esign b u t in h eren t. T h e least d a m
agin g strateg ies are th e sim p lest o n es, w h ich d o n ot try to o v ersee or
m an ip u late th e lab o r m arket b e h a v io r o f lo w -in c o m e p eo p le, but rath e r
au g m en t th eir e arn ed in co m e up to a floor. T h e earn ed in co m e ta x
548 Living Together
cred it, alread y in p la ce , seem s to be a gen erally g oo d strategy, albeit: w ith

the u n a v o id a b le d raw b ack s o f any in co m e su p p le m e n t.1"91
W e w ill n o t try to e lab o rate on rhese argu m en ts here. W e leav e the
in co m e issu e w ith this: A s A m e ric a enters the tw enty-first century, it is
in c o n c e iv a b le th at it will retu rn to a laissez-faire system reg ard in g in
c om e. S o m e sort o f red istrib u tion is here to stay. T h e q u e stio n is how
to red istrib u te in w ays th a t in crease the c h an c e s for p e o p le at the b o t
tom o f so ciety to take c o n tro l o f th eir lives, to be en g ag ed m ean in g fu lly
in th eir c o m m u n itie s, an d to find valu ed p laces for th e m se lv e s. C a sh
su p p le m e n ts need n o t co m p e te w ith th at goal, w hereas th e so cial w el
fare system th a t th e n a tio n has d evelop ed in the tw en tieth cen tu ry m ost
defin itely d o es. W e sh ould be lo o k in g for ways to rep lace th e latter with
the form er.
D ealin g with D em ography
O f all the u n c o m fo rta b le to p ics we h av e ex p lo red , a p air of th e m ost u n

c o m fo rtab le on es are th a t a society w ith a high er m ean IQ is also likely
to be a so ciety w ith few er social ills and brigh ter e c o n o m ic prosp ects,
and th a t th e m ost e fficien t way to raise th e IQ o f a society is for sm arter
w om en to h a v e h igh er b irth rates th an duller w om en. In stead , A m e r
ica is g o in g in th e o p p o site d irec tio n , and the im p lic atio n is a future
A m e ric a w ith m ore so cial ills and glo o m ier econ o m ic p ro sp ects. T h e se
c o n c lu sio n s follow d irectly from the ev id e n c e we h av e p resen ted at such
length, an d yet we h av e so far been silen t o n w hat to d o ab o u t it.
W e are sile n t partly b ec au se we are as ap p reh en siv e as m ost o th e r
p eop le a b o u t w hat m igh t h ap p en w hen a go v ern m en t d e c id e s to social-
en g in e er w h o h as b a b ies and w ho d oesn 't. W e c an im agin e n o re c o m
m en d atio n for u sin g th e g o v ern m en t to m an ip u late fertility th a t d oes
n ot h av e d an gers. B u t th is h igh lig h ts the p roblem : T h e U n ite d S ta re s
already h as p o lic ie s th at in ad v erten tly so cial-en g in e e r w h o h as bab ies,
and it is e n c o u ra g in g th e w ron g w om en. If the United States did as much
to encourage high-IQ women to have babies as it -now does to encourage low-
IQ w om en, it would rightly be described as engaging in aggressive m anipula
tion o f fertility. T h e te c h n ica lly p recise d escrip tio n o f A m e r ic a s fertility
policy is th a t it subsidizes b irth s am o n g p o o r w om en, w ho are also d is
p ro p o rtio n a te ly at the low end o f th e in telligen ce d istrib u tio n . W e urge
gen erally th a t th ese p o lic ie s, rep resen ted by the e x te n siv e n etw ork o f
cash an d se rv ic e s for low -in com e w om en who h av e b a b ies, be en d ed .
T h e g o v ern m en t sh o u ld sto p su bsidizin g b irth s to an y o n e , rich or poor.

T h e o th e r g e n e ric re c o m m e n d a tio n , as c lo se to h arm less as any g o v
ern m en t p ro g ram we c a n im agin e, is to m ak e it easy for w om en to m a k e
good o n th eir p rio r d e c isio n n o t to g et p re g n a n t by m ak in g a v a ila b le
hirth c o n tro l m e ch a n ism s th at are in cre asin gly fle x ib le , foolproof, in
e x p e n siv e , an d safe.
T h e o th e r d e m o g ra p h ic fac to r we d isc u sse d in C h a p te r 15 was im
m igration an d th e e v id e n c e th at re c e n t w av es o f im m ig ran ts are, on th e
average, less su ccessfu l an d p rob ab ly less ab le, th a n earlier w aves. T h e re
is no reaso n to assu m e th at the hazard s a sso c ia te d w ith low c o g n itiv e
ability in A m e ric a are som eh ow c irc u m v e n te d by h a v in g been b o rn
ab road or h a v in g p a re n ts or g ran d p are n ts w ho w ere. A n im m igran t p o p
u latio n w ith low c o g n itiv e ab ility w ill a g a in , o n th e av erage h av e
trouble n ot on ly in fin d in g go o d work bu t h a v e trouble in sch ool, a t
h om e, and w ith th e law.
T h is is n o t th e p la ce, nor are we the p e o p le , to try to rew rite im m i
gratio n law'. Rut we b eliev e thar th e m ain p u rp o se of im m igration law
sh ould be to serve A m e r ic a s in terests. It sh o u ld be am o n g the g o als of
p u b lic p olicy to sh ift th e flow ot im m igran ts aw ay from th ose ad m itte d
under rhe n e p o tisric rules (w h ich broadly e n c o u r a g e th e re u n ificatio n
o f relativ es) and tow ard th ose ad m itted un d er c o m p e te n c y rules, alread y
e stab lish ed in im m ig ratio n law n o t to th e to ta l e x c lu sio n o f n e p o tis
ric an d h u m an itaria n criteria but a sh ift. P e rh a p s ou r c e n tral th o u g h t
about im m ig ratio n is that p resen t p olicy a ssu m e s an in differen ce to th e
in dividual c h a ra c te ristic s o f im m igran ts th ar n o so ciety can in defin itely
m ain tain w ith o u t danger.
C O N C L U S IO N
H u n dreds of p ag es ago , in th e Preface, we re fle c te d o n th e q u estio n th a t

we h av e been ask ed so o ften , W h a t good c a n c o m e from w riting th is
hook? W e h av e tried to answ er it in m any w ays.
O u r first an sw er h as been im p licit, sc a tte r e d in m aterial th ro u gh o u t
the bo ok. For th irty years, v ast c h a n g e s in A m e r ic a n life h av e b een in
stitu ted by th e fed eral g o v e rn m e n t to d eal w ith so c ial problem s. W e
h ave tried to p o in t o u t w h at a sm all segm en t o f th e p o p u la tio n a c c o u n ts
for su ch a large p ro p o rtio n o f th o se p ro b le m s. T o rhe e x te n t th at th e
p rob lem s o f th is sm all seg m en t are su sc e p tib le to so c ia l-e n g in e e rin g so -
550 Living Together
[unions at all, they sh ou ld be highly targeted. T h e vast m ajo rity o f A m e r

ican s c an run their ow n lives ju st fine, an d policy sh ou ld a b o v e all be
c o n stru c ted so th at it p erm its them to d o so.
O u r secon d answ er, also im p licit, has been th at ju st ab o u t any policy
in an y area ed u c atio n , em p loy m en t, w elfare, crim in al ju stic e , or the
care o f c h ild re n can p rofit if its d esign ers ask how th e p olicy acco rd s
w ith th e w ide v a riatio n in c o g n itiv e ability. P o licies m ay fail n o t b e
cau se they are in h eren tly flaw ed but because they d o n o t m ak e a l
low an ces for how m uch p eo p le vary. T h e re are h un d red s of w ays to fram e
b its a n d p ieces ot p u b lic p olicy so th at they are based o n a re alistic a p
praisal o f the resp on ses they will get n ot from p eop le w ho th in k like
R h o d e s sch o lars but p e o p le w ho th in k in sim p ler ways.
O u r third answ er h as g o n e to specific issues in raisin g th e co g n itiv e
fu n c tio n in g of rhe d isa d v an tag e d (C h a p te r 17) and in im p ro v in g ed u
c atio n for all (C h a p te r 18). Part o f our answ er has b een cau tio n ary :
M u ch o f p u b lic p olicy tow ard th e d isa d v an tag e d starts from th e p rem ise
th at in terv en tio n s can m ak e up for gen etic or e n v iro n m e n tal d isa d
van tag es, and th at prem ise is overly op tim istic. Part o f our an sw er has
been p o sitiv e: M uch c an and sh ould he d o n e to im p rove e d u c a tio n , e s
p ecially for th o se w ho h a v e th e greatest p o ten tial.
O u r fourth answ er has b een th at group d ifferen ces in c o g n itiv e a b il
ity, so d esperately d en ied for so long, can best be h an d le d c an only be
h an d le d by a return to in dividu alism . A person sh ou ld n o t be ju d ged
as a m em b er of a group hut as an in dividu al. W ith th at co rn e rsto n e ot
the A m e ric a n d o ctrin e o n c e ag a in in p lace, group d iffe re n ce s c an take
their ap p ro p riately in sign ifican t p lace in affectin g A m e ric a n life. Rut
until th a t c o rn ersto n e is o n ce again in p lace, th e anger, th e hurt, and
the an im o sitie s will c o n tin u e to grow.
In th is c lo sin g ch ap ter, we h av e focused on an o th e r asp e c t of w hat
m akes A m e ric a sp ecial. T h is m ost in d ivid u alistic o f n a tio n s c o n ta in s
o n e o f th e frien d liest, m ost eag er to o b lige, neighborly p e o p le s in all the
w orld. V isitors to A m e ric a from T o c q u ev ille on dow n h av e o b serv e d it.
A s a b y -p rod u ct o f th is gen ero sity an d c iv ic m in d ed n ess, A m e ric a h as
had a g en iu s for m ak in g valu ed p laces, for p eop le o f all k in d s o f a b ili
ties, g iv e n on ly th at they p layed by a few basic rules.
O n c e we as a n a tio n ab sorbed peop le o f d ifferen t cu ltu res, ab ilities,
in co m es, an d te m p eram en ts in to co m m u n itie s th at w orked. T h e n a tio n
was g o o d at it precisely b ecau se of, n ot in spite of, th e freed om that
A Phice far Everyone 551
A m e ric a n in d iv id u a ls and c o m m u n itie s e n jo y e d . H av e th ere b een e x

c ep tio n s to rh at gen eralizatio n ? Yes, p re d o m in a n tly in v o lv in g race, a n d
the n a tio n righ tly m oved to rid itse lf o f th e e n fo rc e d d isc rim in atio n th at
lay b eh in d th o se e x c e p tio n s. Is th e g e n e ra liz a tio n n o n e th e le ss ju stifie d ?
O v erw h elm in g ly so, in our ju d g m en t. R e d u c in g rhat freedom has e n e r
vated our n a tio n a l gen iu s for fin d in g v alu ed p la c e s for everyone; th e g e
nius will nor he revitalized until the fre e d o m is restored.
C o g n itiv e p a rtitio n in g will c o n tin u e . It c a n n o t be stopped , b e c au se
the forces d riv in g it c a n n o t be sto p p e d . B u t A m e r ic a can ch oose to p re
serve a so c ie ty in w h ich every citizen has a c c e s s to the cen tral sa tisfa c
tion s ot life. Its p eo p le can , th ro u gh an in te rw e av in g o f ch o ice and
responsibility, c re a te valued p la ce s for th e m se lv e s in th eir worlds. T h e y
c a n live in c o m m u n itie s u rban or rural w h ere being a good p are n t,
a good n eigh b or, an d a good friend will g iv e th eir lives purpose and
m ean in g. T h e y c an w eave the m o st c ru c ia l safe ty n ets together, so th at
th eir m istak es an d m isfortu n es are m itig a te d and w ith stood with a lit
tle help from th eir friends.
A ll of th ese g oo d th in gs are a v a ila b le n o w to th ose w ho are sm art
en o u gh or rich e n o u gh if rhey c an e x p lo it rhe co m p le x rules to th eir
a d v a n tag e , buy th eir way out of the so c ia l in stitu tio n s th at no lon ger
fu n ctio n , and h av e ac c e ss to th e rich h u m a n in te rc o n n e c tio n s th at are
grow ing, n o t d im in ish in g , for th e c o g n itiv e ly fo rtu n ate . W e are c a llin g
upon our read ers, so h eav ily c o n c e n tr a te d a m o n g those w ho fit th a t d e
scrip tio n , to recogn ize th e ways in w h ich p u b lic p olicy h as com e to deny
th o se good th in g s to th o se w ho are n o t sm a rt e n o u g h and rich en o u gh .
A t th e heart o f our th ou gh t is th e q u e st fo r h u m an dignity. T h e c e n
tral m easure of su c c ess for th is g o v e rn m e n t, as for any other, is to p er
m it p eo p le to live lives o f d ig n ity n o t to give th em dignity, for th a t is
n o t in any g o v e rn m e n ts pow er, but to m a k e it a c c e ssib le to all. T h a t is
o n e way of th in k in g ab o u t w hat the F o u n d e rs h ad in m ind w hen th ey
p ro claim ed , as a tru th self-ev id en t, th a t all m e n are created equal. T h a t
is w hat we h a v e in m in d w hen we talk a b o u t v alu e d p lace s for every on e.
In eq u ality of en d o w m en ts, in c lu d in g in te llig e n c e , is a reality. T ry in g
to prerend th a t in eq u ality d o es n ot really e x is t h as led to disaster. T ry
ing to e ra d ic a te in eq u ality w ith artific ially m an u fac tu re d o u tc o m es h a s
led to d isaster. It is tim e for A m e ric a o n c e a g a in to try livin g w ith in
equality, as life is lived: u n d e rstan d in g th a t e ac h h u m an b ein g h a s
stren gth s and w eak n esses, q u alitie s we a d m ire an d q u alitie s we d o n o t
552 Living Together
ad m ire, c o m p e te n c ie s an d in co m p e te n c e s, assets and d eb its; th a t the

su ccess o f e a c h h u m an life is n o t m easured extern ally bu t in tern ally;
th at o f all th e rew ards we c a n con fer on each other, the m o st p reciou s
is a p la c e as a v alu ed fellow citizen.
Appendix 1
Statistics for People Who Are

Sure They Cant Learn Statistics
T h e sh ort e x p la n a tio n s of stan dard d e v ia tio n (p a g e 4 4 ), c o rre la tio n

(page 6 7 ), and regressio n (p age 122) sh o u ld b e satisfacto ry for p e o p le
who are at h o m e w ith m ath hut n ev er to o k a s ta t is t ic s cou rse. T h e lo n g e r
e x p la n a tio n s in th is ap p en d ix are for p e o p le w h o would like to under-
stan d w hat distribution, standard deviation, correlation, and regression
m ean, hut w ho are n o t at h om e w ith m ath .
D IS T R IB U T IO N S A N D S T A N D A R D D E V IA T IO N S
Why D o We N e e d S tan d ard D e v ia tio n "?
Every day, form ally or inform ally, p eop le m a k e co m p a riso n s a m o n g

p eop le, am o n g ap p le s an d oran ges, a m o n g d airy cow s or egg-layin g h e n s,
am o n g the screw s b ein g cou gh ed ou t by a sc re w m ac h in e . T h e stan d ard
d ev iatio n is a m easu re o f how spread o u t th e th in g s b ein g com pared are.
T h is egg is a lot b igg er th an av e rag e , a c h ic k e n farm er m igh t say. T h e
stan dard d e v ia tio n is a way o f sayin g p re c ise ly w h at a lo t m eans.
W hat Is a Freq u en cy D istribu tion ?
T o get a c le a r id ea o f w h at a frequency d istrib u tio n is, im agin e y ou rself

back in your h igh sc h o o l gym , w'ith all th e b o y s in th e sen ior class in th e
sch o o l gym assem b led before you (in c lu d in g b o th se x e s w ould c o m p li
cate m atters, a n d th e p o in t o f th is d isc u ssio n is to k eep th in g s sim p le ).
L in e up th ese boys from left to right in o rd er o f h eigh t.
N o w you h a v e a lo n g line g o in g from sh o r te s t to tallest. A s you lo o k
alo n g the lin e you w ill see th at on ly few b o y s are co n sp icu o u sly sh o r t
and tall. M o st are in th e m id dle, and a lot o f th e m seem id e n tic al in
h eigh t. Is th ere an y way to get a b etter id ea o f h o w this p atte rn lo o k s?
554 Appendix 1
T ap e a series o f c ard s to th e flo o r in a stra ig h t lin e from left to righ t,

w ith 6 0 in ch es an d sh o rte r w ritten o n th e o n e a t th e far left, 8 0 in ch e s
an d ta lle r o n th e c ard a t th e far righ t, an d card s in 1-in ch in crem e n ts
in betw een . T e ll ev ery o n e to sta n d b e h in d th e card th a t c o rre sp o n d s to
h is h e igh t.
S o m e o n e lo o p s a ro p e o v er th e rafters an d p u lls you up in th e air so
you c a n lo o k stra ig h t d ow n o n th e to p s o f th e h ead s o f you r c la ssm a te s
sta n d in g in th eir sin g le files b e h in d th e h e ig h t lab els. T h e figu re b elow
sh ow s w h at you see: a freq u en cy d istrib u tio n .1 W h a t g o o d is it? L o o k -
The raw material of a frequency distribution
60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80
in g a t y ou r h ig h sc h o o l c la ssm a te s sta n d in g aro u n d in a m ob, you c a n

te ll very little ab o u t th e ir h e igh t. L o o k in g a t th o se sam e c la ssm a te s
arran g ed in to a freq u en cy d istrib u tio n , you c a n tell a lot, q u ic k ly an d
m em orably.
H o w Is the D istribu tion R elated to the S ta n d a rd D ev iatio n 1
W e still la c k a c o n v e n ie n t way o f ex p re ssin g w here p e o p le are in th a t

d istrib u tio n . W h a t d o e s it m e a n to say th a t tw o d iffere n t stu d e n ts are,
say, 6 in ch e s d ifferen t in h eigh t. H ow b ig is a 6 -in c h d ifferen ce? T h a t
b rin g s us b a c k to th e sta n d a rd d e v ia tio n .
W h e n it c o m es to h ig h sc h o o l stu d en ts, you h a v e a g o o d id e a o f h ow
b ig a 6 -in c h d ifferen ce is. B u t w h at d oes a 6 -in c h d iffere n ce m e a n if you
are ta lk in g ab o u t th e h e ig h t o f e le p h a n ts? A b o u t th e h e ig h t o f cats? It
d e p e n d s. A n d th e th in g s it d e p e n d s o n are th e av erag e h e ig h t a n d h ow
m u ch h e ig h t v a ries a m o n g th e th in g s you are m easu rin g . A standard de
Appendix 1 555
viation gives you a way o f taking both the average and that variability into ac-
count, so that 6 inches can be expressed in a way that m eans the sam e thing
for high school students relative to other high school students, elephants rela-
tive to other elephants, and cats relative to other cats.
H o w D o You C o m p u te a S ta n d a rd D e v iatio n 1
S u p p o se th a t you r h ig h sc h o o l cla ss c o n siste d o f ju s t tw o p e o p le w h o

w ere 6 6 in ch e s an d 70 in ch es. O b viou sly , th e av e rag e is 6 8 in ch e s. Ju st
as ob viously, o n e p e rso n is 2 in ch es sh o rter th a n av e rag e , o n e p e rso n is
2 in ch e s talle r th a n av erag e. T h e stan d a rd d e v ia tio n is a k in d o f aver-
age o f th e d ifferen ces fro m th e m e a n 2 in ch e s, in th is e x a m p le . S u p
p o se you ad d tw o m ore p e o p le to th e class, o n e w h o is 6 4 in ch e s a n d th e
o th e r w h o is 72 in ch es. T h e m e a n h a sn t c h a n g e d (th e tw o n ew p e o p le
b a la n c e e a c h o th e r o ff e x a c tly ). B u t th e n ew co m ers are e a c h 4 in ch es
d ifferen t from th e av erag e h e ig h t o f 6 8 in ch es, so th e sta n d a rd d e v ia
tio n , w h ich m easu res th e sp read , h a s g o tte n b ig g e r as w ell. N o w tw o
p e o p le are 4 in ch e s d ifferen t fro m th e av e rag e a n d tw o p e o p le are 2
in ch es d ifferen t fro m th e av erag e. T h a t ad d s up to a to t a l 12 in ch e s, d i
v id ed a m o n g fou r p erso n s. T h e sim p le av e rag e o f th e se d iffere n ce s from
th e m e a n is 3 in ch e s (1 2 4 ) , w h ich is a lm o st (b u t n o t q u ite ) w h at th e
sta n d a rd d e v ia tio n is. T o b e p recise, th e stan d a rd d e v ia tio n is c a lc u la te d
by sq u arin g th e d e v ia tio n s fro m th e m ean , th e n su m m in g th em , th e n
fin d in g th eir av erag e, th e n ta k in g th e sq u are ro o t o f th e resu lt. In th is
e x a m p le , tw o p e o p le are 4 in ch e s from th e m e a n a n d tw o are 2 in ch es
fro m th e m ean . T h e su m o f th e sq u ared d e v ia tio n s is 4 0 (1 6 + 16 + 4
+ 4 ). T h e ir av e rag e is 10 (4 0 -* 4)- A n d th e sq u are ro o t o f 10 is 3 .1 6 ,
w h ich is th e stan d a rd d e v ia tio n for th is e x a m p le . T h e te c h n ic a l reaso n s
for u sin g th e sta n d a rd d e v ia tio n in ste a d o f th e sim p le av erag e o f th e d e
v ia tio n s from th e m e a n are n o t n ec essary to go in to , e x c e p t th a t, in n o r
m al d istrib u tio n s, th e sta n d a rd d e v ia tio n h a s w on d erfu lly c o n v e n ie n t
p ro p erties. If you are lo o k in g for a sh ort, easy w ay to th in k o f a stan d a rd
d e v ia tio n , view it as th e av e ra g e d ifferen ce from th e m ean .
A s a n e x a m p le o f h o w a sta n d a rd d e v ia tio n c a n b e u sed to c o m p a re
ap p les an d o ran g es, su p p o se w e are c o m p a rin g th e O ly m p ic w o m e n s
g y m n astics te a m a n d N B A b a sk e tb a ll team s. Y ou see a w o m an w h o is 5
fe e t 6 in ch es a n d a m a n w h o is 7 feet. Y ou k n o w from w a tc h in g gy m
n a s tic s o n te le v isio n th a t 5 fe e t 6 in ch e s is ta ll for a w o m an gy m n ast,
an d 7 fe e t is ta ll e v e n for a b a sk e tb a ll player. B u t you w an t to d o b e tte r
th a n a g en era l im p ressio n . Ju st how u n u su al is th e w o m an , c o m p a re d to
556 Appendix 1
th e av erage g y m n ast on the U .S . w o m en s team , and how u n u su al is the

m an, c o m p a re d to the av erage b ask etb all player on the U .S . m e n s team ?
W e g a th e r d a ta on h eigh t am o n g all the w om en g y m n asts, an d d e
term in e th a t th e m ean is 5 feet 1 in ch es w ith a stan d ard d e v ia tio n (S O )
o f 2 in ch es. F or th e m en b ask etb all players, we find th at th e m ean is 6
feet 6 in ch es an d the S D is 4 in ch es. T h u s th e w om an w ho is 5 feet 6
in ch es is 2.5 stan d ard d ev iatio n s taller th an the av erage; th e 7 -fo ot m an
is on ly 1.5 stan d a rd d ev iatio n s taller th an th e average. T h e se n u m b e rs
2.5 for th e w om an and 1.5 for the m an are called standard scores in
sta tistic a l ja rg o n . N o w we h a v e an e x p lic it n u m erical way to co m p are
how d ifferen t th e tw o p eop le are from their resp ectiv e av e rag e s, an d we
h av e a b asis for co n clu d in g th at the w om an who is 5 feet 6 in ch es is a
lot taller re lativ e to oth er fem ale O ly m p ic gym nasts th an a 7 -fo ot m an
is relative to o th e r N B A b ask etb all players.
H ow M uch M o re Different? Enter the N o rm a l Distribution
E ven before co m in g to this book, m ost readers h ad h eard th e p h rases

normal distribution or bell-shaped cu rve, or, as in our title, bell cu rve. T h e y
refer to a c o m m o n way th at n atu ral p h en o m en a arrange th e m se lv e s a p
proxim ately. (T h e true norm al d istrib u tio n is a m ath e m atic al a b stra c
tion , n ev er p erfectly ob served in n atu re.) If you look ag a in at the
d istrib u tio n o f h igh sch o o l boys th at op en ed rhe d iscu ssio n , you will
see the m ak in g s o f a bell curve. If we added several th o u sa n d m ore hoys
to it, the k in k s an d irregularities w ould sm o o th out, and it w ould actu ally
get very c lo se to a norm al d istrib u tio n . A perfect o n e is in the figure
below.
A p e rfe c t bell c u rv e
Appendix I 5 57
It m ak es sen se th a t m o st th in gs will he a rra n g e d in h ell-sh aped cu rv es.

E xtrem es ten d to be rarer th an th e av erag e. If th at sou n ds like a ta u t o l
ogy, it is on ly b e c au se hell cu rves are so c o m m o n . C o n sid e r h eigh t a g a in .
S e v e n feet is e x tr e m e for h u m an s. B u t if h u m a n h eigh t were d istrib
uted so th a t e q u al p ro p o rtio n s of p e o p le w ere 5 feet, 6 feet, and 7 fe e t
tall, th e ex tre m e w ould n o t be rarer th a n th e av erag e. It ju st so h a p p e n s
th at the w orld h ard ly ev er w orks th a t way.
B ell cu rv es (o r c lo se a p p ro x im a tio n s to th e m ) are n o t only c o m m o n
in n ature; they h a v e a c lo se m ath e m atic al a ffin ity to the m ean in g o f th e
stan dard d e v ia tio n . In any true n o rm al d istrib u tio n , n o m atter w h e th e r
the e le m e n ts are th e h eig h ts of b a sk e tb all p la y e rs, th e d iam eters o f screw
heads, or th e m ilk p ro d u c tio n o f cow s, 6 8 .2 7 p e rc e n t o f all the c ase s fall
in the in terval b etw een 1 stan d ard d e v ia tio n a b o v e the m ean and 1 s t a n
dard d e v ia tio n below it. It is w orth p au sin g a m o m e n t over this link b e
tw een a relativ ely sim p le m easure o f sp read in a d istrib u tio n and the way
th in gs in every d ay life vary, for it is o n e o f n a t u r e s m ore rem arkable u n i
form ities.
In its m a th e m a tic a l form , th e n o rm al d istrib u tio n e x ten d s to in fin
ity in b o th d ire c tio n s, n ev er q u ite re a c h in g th e h orizontal axis. But for
p ractical p u rp oses, w h en we are ta lk in g a b o u t p o p u la tio n s o f p e o p le , a
n o rm al d istrib u tio n is ab ou t 6 stan d a rd d e v ia tio n s wide. T h e n ex t fig
ure show s how th e bell curve looks, c u t up in to six regions, eac h m arked
A b ell c u rv e c u t in to s ta n d a r d d e v ia tio n s
S tandard de viations fr o m th e m ean
by a stan d ard d e v ia tio n unit. T h e ran ge w ith in 3 stan dard d e v ia tio n

u n its in clu d es 9 9 .7 p erc en t o f a p o p u la tio n th a t is d istribu ted n orm ally.
W e c an sq ueeze th e ax is an d m ak e it lo o k narrow , or stretch it o u t
and m ak e it lo o k w ide, as sh ow n in th e fo llo w in g figure. A p p e a r a n c e s
n o tw ith sta n d in g , th e m a th e m a tic a l sh a p e is n o t really c h an g in g . T h e
558 Appendix 1
S ta n d a r d d e v ia tio n s cu t o ff th e sam e p o rtio n s o f th e p o p u la tio n fo r

an y n o rm al d istrib u tio n
-3-2-10 I 2 3 -3 -2 -1 0
sta n d a rd d e v ia tio n co n tin u e s to ch op o ff p ro p o rtio n ately th e sam e size

c h u n k s o f th e d istrib u tio n in eac h case. A n d th erein lies its valu e. T h e
sta n d a rd d e v ia tio n h a s the sam e m ean in g n o m atter w h eth er th e clis-
trih u tio n is ta ll an d skinny o r sh o rt and wide.
F u rth erm o re, th ere are som e sim p le c h arac teristics ah ou t th ese scores
th a t m ake th e m esp ecially v alu ab le. A s you c an see by lo o k in g a t the
figu res a b o v e , it m ak es in tu itive sen se to think o f a 1 stan d ard d e v ia tio n
d iffe re n ce as la rg e , a 2 stan d ard d ev iatio n d ifferen ce as very larg e ,
an d a 3 sta n d a rd d e v ia tio n d ifferen ce as h u g e . T h is is a n easy m etric
to rem em ber. S p e cifically , a person w ho is 1 stan d ard d e v ia tio n ab ove
th e m e a n in IQ is at the 8 4 th p ercen tile. Two stan d ard d e v ia tio n s ab ove
th e m e a n p u ts h im at the 9 8 th p ercen tile. T h ree stan d a rd d e v ia tio n s
a b o v e th e m e a n p u ts him a t the 9 9 .9 th p ercen tile. A p e rso n w ho is 1
sta n d a rd d e v ia tio n below th e m ean is at the 16th p e rce n tile. Tw o s ta n
d ard d e v ia tio n s below the m ean puts him at the 2d p e rc e n tile . T h re e
sta n d a rd d e v ia tio n s below the m ean pu ts him at th e 0 .1 th p e rc en tile.
W hy N o t J u s t U se Percentiles to Begin W ith?
W h y go to all th e troub le o f co m p u tin g stan dard scores? M o st p e o p le

u n d e rsta n d p e rc e n tile s already. T ell them th at som eon e is at th e 8 4 th
p e r c e n tile , a n d th ey know righ t away w hat you m ean. T e ll th e m th at
h e s a t th e 9 9 th p e rc e n tile , and they know w hat th at m ean s. A r e n t we
ju st in tro d u c in g an u n n ecessary c o m p lic a tio n by talk in g ab o u t s t a n
d ard sc o re s ?
T h in k in g in term s of p ercen tiles is c o n v e n ie n t and h as its le g itim ate
Appendix 1 559
uses. W e o fte n sp e a k in term s o f p e r c e n tile s o r c e n tile s in the text.

But they c a n also he highly m isle a d in g , b e c a u s e th ey are artificially c o m
pressed at th e tails o f the d istrib u tio n s. It is a lo n g e r way from , say, the
9 8 th c e n tile to th e 9 9 th th an from th e 5 0 th to th e 5 1 st. In a true n o r
m al d istrib u tio n , th e d ista n c e fro m th e 9 9 th c e n t ile to the 100th (or,
sim ilarly, from th e 1st to the 0 th ) is in fin ite .
C o n sid e r tw o p eo p le who are at th e 5 0 th a n d 5 5 rh c e n tile s in h eigh t.
U sin g the N L S Y as our estim ate o f th e n a t io n a l A m e r ic a n d istribu tion
of h eigh t, th eir a c tu a l h eigh t d iffe re n c e is o n ly h alf a n in ch .121 C o n sid e r
a n o th er tw o p e o p le w ho are at rhe 9 4 th an d 9 9 t h c e n tile s o n h e igh t
the id en tic al g a p in term s of c e n tile s. T h e ir h e ig h t differen ce is 3.1
in ch es, six tim es the h eigh t d iffe re n c e of th o s e at th e 50th and 55th
cen tiles. T h e fu rth er out o n rhe tail of th e d is tr ib u tio n you m ove, the
m ore m islead in g c e n tile s b ecom e.
S ta n d a rd sco res reflect th ese real d iffe r e n c e s m u c h m ore accurately
th an do c e n tile s. T h e p eo p le at th e 5 0 th a n d 5 5 th c e n tile s, only h a lf an
in ch ap art in real h eigh t, h av e sta n d a r d s c o r e s ot 0 and .13. C om p are
th at d ifferen ce of .13 stan d a rd d e v ia tio n to th e sta n d a rd scores o f those
at rhe 9 4 th and 9 9 th c en tiles: 1.55 a n d 2 .3 3 , re sp e ctiv e ly . In standard
scores, th eir d iffe re n ce w h ich is .78 s ta n d a r d d e v ia tio n is six tim es
as large, re fle c tin g th e six-fold d iffe re n c e in in c h e s.
T h e sam e lo g ic ap p lie s to in te llig e n c e te st s c o r e s, a n d it e x p lain s why
they sh ou ld be an alyzed in term s of sta n d a r d sc o re s, n o t cen tiles. T h ere
is a kit o f d ifferen ce b etw een p e o p le a t th e 1st c e n tile and the 5th, or
betw een th ose a t th e 9 5 th and th e 9 9 th , m u c h m o re th an th ose at the
4 8 th and th e 52d. If you d o u b t th is, a sk a u n iv e r sity te a c h e r ro com pare
th e c lassro o m p erfo rm an c e o f s tu d e n ts w ith a n S A T -V e rb al o f 6 0 0 and
th ose w ith an S A T -V erb al o f 8 0 0 . B o th are in th e 9 9 th cen tile of all 18-
year-olds but w'hat a d ifferen ce in v e r b a l a b il it y !11
C O R R E L A T IO N A N D R E G R E S S IO N
W e now n eed to c o n sid e r d e a lin g w ith th e r e la tio n s h ip s betw een tw o or

m ore d istrib u tio n s w h ich is, afte r a ll, w h a t s c ie n tis ts usually w an t to
do. How, for e x a m p le , is th e te m p e ra tu re o f a g a s re la te d to its volu m e?
T h e an sw er is B o y le s Law, w h ich you le a r n e d in h igh sch o o l scien ce. In
so cial sc ie n ce , th e re latio n sh ip s b e tw e e n v a r ia b le s are less clear cut and
h ard er to u n earth . W e may, for e x a m p le , be in te r e s te d in w ealth as a v a ri
ab le, but how sh all w ealth be m e a su re d ? Y e arly in c o m e ? Yearly in co m e
560 Appendix I
av eraged o v e r a p erio d o f years? T h e value o f o n e s sav in g s or p ossessio n s?

A n d w e alth , co m p ared to m any of the o th er things social sc ie n ce w ould
like to u n d e rsta n d , is easy, red ucible as it is to dollars and cen ts.
Rut b e y o n d th e p roblem o f m easurem en t, social sc ien ce m u st cope
with sh e e r c o m p lex ity . O ur p h ysical scien tist colleagu es m ay n o t agree,
hut we b e lie v e it is harder to d o scien ce on h um an affairs th an on in a n
im ate o b je c ts so h ard , in fac t, th at m any people co n sid e r it im p o ssi
ble. W e d o n o t b eliev e it is im p ossible, bur it is rare th at any h u m an or
social re la tio n sh ip c an be fully captured in term s ot a sin gle pair of v a ri
ables, su c h a s th at betw een th e tem perature and volu m e of a gas. In s o
cial sc ie n c e , m u ltip le relation sh ip s are the rule, n o t the e x c e p tio n .
For b o th o f th ese reasons, the relation s betw een social sc ie n c e v a ri
ables are ty p ic ally less th an perfect. T h ey are often w eak and u n certain .
B ut th ey are n ev erth ele ss real, and, with th e right m eth od s, they c an be
rigorously e x a m in e d .
C o r r e la tio n an d regression, used so often in the text, are th e prim ary
ways to q u an tify w eak, u n certain relation sh ips. For th at reaso n , th e a d
van ces in c o rre la tio n a l and regression analysis sin ce the late n in e te e n th
century h a v e p rovid ed the im petus to social scien ce. T o u n d erstan d
w hat th is k in d o f an alysis is, we need to in trod uce the id ea ot a sc atte r
diagram .
Scatter D ia g ra m s
We left your m ale high sch o o l classm ates lined up by h eigh t, w ith you
lo o k in g d o w n from the rafters. N ow im agin e an o th er row of cards, laid
out a lo n g th e floor at a right angle to the on es for h eigh t. T h is set of
cards h as w eigh ts in pounds o n them . S ta rt with 9 0 p ou n d s for rhe class
shrim p, an d in 10-poun d in crem en ts, co n tin u e to add card s u n til you
reach 2 50 p o u n d s to m ake room for the class gian t. N o w ask your c la ss
m ates to fin d th e p oin t on the floor th at corresp on ds to both th eir height
and w eigh t (p e rh a p s th eyll insist on a grid of in tersectin g lin es e x
ten d in g from rhe tw o rows of card s). W h en rhe traffic o n th e gym floor
ceases, you w ill see .som ething like the figure below. T h is is a sc a tte r d i
agram . S o m e sort ot relatio n sh ip betw een h eigh t and w eigh t is im m e
diately o b v io u s. T h e h eav iest boys tend to be the tallest, th e ligh test
on es th e sh o rte st, and m ost o f them are in term ed iate in b o th h e ig h t and
w eight. E q u ally o b v io u s are the d ev iatio n s from the tren d that link
heigh t an d w eigh t. T h e stocky boys ap p ear as p o in ts a b o v e th e m ass,
Appendix 1 561
A s c a t t e r d ia g r a m
W e ig h t in pounds
260-
240-
220-
200- i

180 - * , I
I I * |

160- . *
' I t i '

140 -
. 1
?!> h i ? ; .
120 -
100 -
80-, 1 1 1 1 1 1
60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80
H e ig h t in in c h e s
the skinny o n es as p o in ts below it. W h a t w e n e e d now is so m e w ay to

quantify b o th th e tren d and th e e x c e p tio n s.
Correlations an d regressions a c c o m p lis h th is in different, w ays. B u t be-
fore we g o o n to d iscu ss th ese term s, h e re a ssu re d th at they are sim p le .
Look at th e sc a tte r d iagram . Y ou c a n se e by th e d o ts that as h e ig h t in
creases, so d oes w eigh t, in a n irregu lar way. T a k e a p en cil (lite ra lly o r
im ag in ab ly ) a n d draw a straig h t, slo p in g lin e th ro u g h the d o ts in a w ay
th at seem s to you to best re fle c t th is u p w a rd -slo p in g trend. N o w c o n
tinue to read, an d see how well you h a v e in tu itiv e ly p rod u ced th e re su lt
o f a c o rre la tio n c o e ffic ie n t a n d a re g re ssio n c o e ffic ie n t.
T he C o rrelatio n C oefficient
M odern sta tistic s p rovid es m o re th an o n e m e th o d for m easu rin g c o r r e

lation , b u t we c o n fin e o u rselv es to th e o n e th a t is m ost im p o rta n t in
both use an d g en erality : the P ea rso n p r o d u c t- m o m e n t c o rre la tio n c o e f
ficien t (n a m e d after K arl P ea rso n , th e E n g lish m a th e m a tic ia n a n d b io -
m e tric ia n ). T o g e t at th is c o e ffic ie n t, le t u s first rep lo t the grap h o f rh e
c lass, re p la c in g in ch es and p o u n d s w ith sta n d a r d scores. T h e v a r ia b le s
are now e x p ressed in gen eral term s. R e m e m b e r : A n ) set o f m e a s u r e
m en ts c a n be tran sform ed sim ilarly.
5 62 Appendix 1
T h e n e x t seep on our way to the c orrelation coefficient is to apply a

fo r m u la (here dispensed w ith) that, in effect, finds the hest p ossible
straig h t line passing through the cloud of p oin ts the m a th e m a tic a lly
b e s t version of the line you just drew by intuition.
W h a t m akes it the best ? A n y line is goin g to be w ro n g tor m ost
o f th e points. For exam p le, look at the w eights o f rhe boys who are 64
in c h e s tall. A n y sloping straight line is going to cross som ew here in the
m id d le o f those weights and may not cross any of the d ots exactly. For
b o y s 64 in ches tall, you want the line to cross at the p oint where the to
tal a m o u n t o f the error is as sm all as possible. T a k e n over all the boys at
all the heights, you want a straight line that m akes the sum of all the
errors for all the heights as sm all as possible. T h is best fit is sh o w n in
th e new version o f the scatter d iagram below, where both h eigh t and
w e ig h t are expressed in standard scores and the m a th e m a tic a l best-fit-
tin g line h as been superim posed.
T h e b e st- fit lin e fo r a sc a tte r d iagram
W e ig h t, expressed in standard scores

4
i i i i i i i
-3 - 2 - 1 0 1 2 3
H eight, expressed in standard scores
T h i s scatter diagram has (partly by serendipity) m an y lessons to te a c h

a b o u t how statistics relate to the real world. H ere are a few o f the m ain
o n es:
1. Notice the many exceptions. T h e r e is a statistically su b sta n tia l rela

tionship between h eigh t an d weight, but, visually, th e e x c e p tio n s
Appendix 1 563
seem to d o m in a te . S o to o with virtually all statistical relationships

in the so c ial scien ces, m o st o f w h ic h a r e m u c h weaker than this
one.
2. Linear relationships dont alw ays seem to fit very well. T h e best-fit
line looks as if it is too shallow. L o o k at th e tall boys, and see h ow
c o n sisten tly it u n d erp red icts how m u c h they weigh. G i v e n the in
form ation in the diagram , this m ig h t be a n o p tical illusion m any
of the d o ts in the d en se p art o f th e r a n g e are o n top o f each other,
as it were, and thus it is im p o ssib le to grasp visually how the e r
rors are a d d in g u p but it c o u ld also b e th at the relationship b e
tween heigh t an d w eight is no t linear.
3. Sm all sam ples have iiviividual an o m alies. B e fo re we ju m p to the c o n
c lusion th a t the straight line is n o t a g o o d rep resentation ot the
re lation sh ip, rem em b er that the s a m p le co n sists o f only 250 boys.
A n a n o m a ly o f this p articular sm a ll s a m p le is that o n e of the boys
in the sa m p le o f 2 50 w eighed 2 5 0 p o u n d s. Eighteen-year-old
boys are very rarely that heavy, ju d g in g fro m the entire N L S Y s a m
ple, fewer th a n on e per 1,000. A n d yet o n e of those rarities h a p
p ened to be picked up in a sa m p le o f 2 5 0 . T h a t s the way sam p les
work.
4. But sm all sam ples are also surjnisingly accu rate, despite their individ-
ual an o m alies. T h e relatio n sh ip b e t w e e n h eig h t and weight sh ow n
by the sa m p le o f 2 5 0 18-year-old m a le s is identical to the third
d ec im al p la c e with the re la tio n sh ip a m o n g all 6 ,0 6 8 males in the
N L S Y sam ple.*41 T h is is c lo ser t h a n we h a v e any right to e x p ec t,
but o th e r ran d o m sam p les o f o n ly 2 5 0 gen erally produce c o rre la
tions th at are w ithin a few h u n d re d th s o f the one produced by the
larger sam p le. ( T h e r e are m a t h e m a t ic s for figuring out what g e n
erally a n d within a few h u n d r e d t h s m e a n , but we n e e d n t worry
ab o u t th e m here.)
B earin g th ese basics in m ind , let us g o b a c k to the sloping line in the

figure ab ove. O u t o f m a th e m a tic a l necessity, we know several th in g s
about it. First, it m ust pass th ro u gh the in te r s e c tio n of the zeros (w h ic h ,
in stan d a rd scores, corresp on d to the a v e r a g e s ) for b o th heigh t a n d
weight. S e c o n d , the line would h a v e h ad e x a c t l y the sam e slope h ad
heigh t b een the v ertic al axis a n d w eigh t the h o rizo n tal one. Finally, an d
m ost sig n ifican t, the slo p e of the best-fittin g lin e c a n n o t be steeper th a n
1.0. T h e ste e p e st p ossible best-fittin g line, in o th e r words, is one a l o n g
564 Appendix I
w h ich on e unit o f ch an g e in heigh t is exactly m atc h ed by on e unit of

c h a n g e in w eight, clearly no t the case in these data. R e al d a ta in the s o
cial s c ie n c e s never yield a slope that steep.
In the picture, the line goes uphill to the right, but for o th e r pairs of
variables, it c ou ld go dow nhill. C o n sid e r a scatter d iag r am tor, say,
e d u c a tio n a l level an d fertility by the age o f 30. W o m e n with m ore
e d u c a tio n te n d to h av e fewer b abies when they are young, c o m p a re d to
w o m e n w ith less ed ucatio n , as we discuss in C h a p te rs 8 and 15. T h e
cloud o f p o in ts would decline from left to right, just the reverse of the
c lo ud in th e picture above. T h e dow nhill slope o f the b est-fitting line
would be ex p ressed as a n eg ative number, but, again, it c o u ld be no
steep er t h a n - 1 . 0 .
W e focus on the slope of the best-fitting line because it is the c o rre
lation c oefficien t in this case, equal to .50, w hich is q uite large by the
stan dards o f v ariab les used by social scientists. T h e closer it: gets to 1.0,
the stro nger is the linear relationship between the standardized v a ri
ab les (the va riab les expressed as standard scores). W h e n the two v a ri
ables are m utually indep end ent, rhe best-fitting line is horizontal; h en c e
its slope is 0. A n y th in g other th an 0 signifies a relationship, albeit p o s
sibly a very w eak one.
W h a t e v e r the c orrelation coefficient of a pair o f v ariab les is, sq u ar
ing it yields a n o th e r notable number. S q u a rin g .50, for e x a m p le , gives
.25. T h e sig n ifica n c e o f the squared correlation is that it tells how m uch
the v a ria tio n in weight would decrease if we could m ake every on e rhe
s a m e h eigh t, or vic e versa. If all the hoys in the class were the sam e
heigh t, the v a riation in their weights would decline by 25 perc en t. P er
h aps, if you hav e b een com pelled to be around social scientists, you h av e
h e ard the p h ra se e x p la in s the v a ria n c e , as in, for e x a m p le , E d u c atio n
e x p la in s 20 p e rc e n t of the v a rian ce in in co m e." T h a t figure c o m e s from
the sq uared correlation.
In g en era l, rhe squared correlation is a m easure o f the m u tu al re d u n
d an c y in a p air o f variables. If they are highly correlated, they are highly
red u n d an t in the sense that kn o w in g the value of on e o f th em places a
narrow ran ge of possibilities for the value of the other. If they are un-
correlated o r only slightly correlated, k n o w in g the value o f on e tells us
n o th in g or little ab o u t the value o f the other.151
Appendix I 565
Regression Coefficients
C o r r e la t io n assesses the stren gth o f a r e la tio n sh ip betw een variables.

Rut we m ay w an t to know m ore a b o u t a re la tio n sh ip than merely its
strength. W e m ay w ant to know w h at it is. W e may want to know how
m u ch of a n increase in weight, for e x a m p le , we should anticipate if we
c o m p a re 6 6 - in c h hoys with 73-in c h boys. S u c h q uestio n s arise naturally
if we are trying to e x p la in a p articular v a r ia b le (e.g., ann u al in co m e) in
terms of the effects of an o th e r v a riab le (e.g ., ed u c atio n al level). H ow
m uch in co m e is an o th e r year o f sc h o o lin g w o r t h ! is just rhe sort of q u e s
tion thar so cial scien tists are always trying t o answer.
T h e stan dard m e th o d for an sw erin g it is regression analysis, w hich
has an in tim ate m a th e m a tic a l a sso c ia tio n w ith correlational analysis. If
we had left the scatter diagram w ith its o rig in a l axes inches and
p ound s in stead o f standardizing th e m , the s lo p e o f the best-fitting line
would h a v e b een a regression coefficien t, ra th e r th a n a correlation c o
efficient. T h e figure below shows the s c a t t e r d iag ram with nonstan-
dardized axes.
W h a t a re g re ssio n c o e ffic ie n t is te llin g you
W e ig h t in pounds
260 - H o w much does height
60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80
H e ig h t in inches
566 Appendix I
W hy are there tw o lines? R ec all that the best-fitting line is th e one

that m inimizes the aggregated d istances between the d a ta p oin ts and
the line. For standardized m easurem ents, it m akes no difference w hether
the d istances are m easured along the pounds axis or the in ch es axis; for
unstandardized m easurem ents, it may m ake a difference. H e n c e we may
get two lines, d e p e n d in g on which axis was used to fit the line. T h e two
lines, which always intersect at the average values for the two variables,
answer different q uestions. O n e answers the q u estio n we first posed:
H ow m u ch o f a difference in pounds is associated with a g iv e n differ
ence in in ches (i.e., th e regression o f weight on height). T h e ocher one
tells us how m uch o f a difference in inches is associated with a giv en dif
ference in p ou nd s (i.e., the regression o f height on weight).
Multiple Regression
Multiple regression analysis is the main way that social sc ie n ce deals

with rhe multiple relationships that are the rule in social scien ce. T o get
a fix on multiple regression, let us return to the high school gym for the
last time. Your c lassm ates are still scattered ab out the floor. N o w im ag
ine a pole, erected at the intersection o f 6 0 inches and 9 0 pounds,
marked in in ches from 18 inches to 50 inches. For som e in scrutable rea
son, you would like to know the im pact o f both height and weight on a
hoys waist size. S in c e im agination can defy gravity, you ask each boy to
levitate until the soles o f his shoes are at the e lev atio n rhat reads o n the
pole at the waist size o f his trousers. In general, the taller and heavier
boys must rise the m ost, the shorter and slighter on es the least, an d most
boys, m iddling in h eigh t and weight, will hav e m iddling waist sizes as
well. M u ltiple regression is a m ath em atical procedure for finding that
plane, slicing through the space in the gym, th a t minimizes the ag g re
gated distances (in this instance, along the waist size axis) b etw een the
bottom s of the boys shoes and the plane.
T h e best-fitting p la n e will tilt upward toward heavy weights an d tall
heights. But it may tilt m ore along the pounds axis than a lo n g the inches
axis, or vice versa. It m ay tilt equally for each. T h e slope of the tilt along
eac h of these axes is again a regression coefficient. W ith two variables
predicting a third, as in this e xam p le, there are two coefficients. O n e of
them tells us how m u c h of an increase in trouser waist size is associated
with a given increase in weight, holding height c on sta n t; the other, how
Appendix 1 567
much o f an in cr e ase in tro u s e r w a i s t size is a s s o c i a t e d w ith a g iv e n in-

crease in h e ig h t, h o l d in g w e i g h t c o n sta n t .
W ith two v a riab les p r e d i c t i n g a third, we reac h th e lim it of visu al
im agin ation . B u t th e p r in c i p l e of m ultiple re g r e ssio n c a n be e x t e n d e d
to any n u m b e r of v a r ia b le s. I n c o m e , for e x a m p l e , m ay be r e la te d not j u s t
to ed u c a tio n but a l s o to a g e , fa m il y b a c k g r o u n d , IQ, p erson a lity, b u s i
ness c o n d itio n s, re g io n o f rhe country , an d so cm. T h e m a t h e m a t i c a l
procedures will yield c o e f f i c i e n t s for e a c h of t h e m , in d i c a ti n g a g a in h o w
m uch o f a c h a n g e in i n c o m e c a n be a n t ic ip a t e d for a g iv e n c h a n g e in
any p articu lar va riab le, w ith all th e oth e rs h eld c o n s t a n t .
Logistic R egression
T h e text fre q u e n tly reso rts to a m e t h o d ol a n a ly s is c a lle d logistic regres

sion. Here, w e n eed o n ly say w h a t rhe m e t h o d is for ra th e r t h a n w h at ir
is. M a n y o f th e v a ria b le s w e d is c u s s are such t h i n g s as b e i n g u n e m p l o y e d
or not, b e in g m arried or n o t , b e i n g a p a r e n t o r n o t, a n d so o n . B e c a u se
they are m e a su re d in tw o v a l u e s c o r r e s p o n d i n g to yes a n d n o they
are called b in ary v a ria b le s. L o g i s t ic regression is an a d a p t a t i o n of o r d i
nary regression a n a ly s is ta ilo r e d to th e c a se of binary v a ria b le s. (It c a n
also be used for v a r ia b le s w ith larger n u m b e r s of d isc re te v a lu e s.) It tells
us how m u c h c h a n g e th e r e is in th e p ro b a b ility ot b e in g u n e m p lo y e d ,
married, a n d so forth, g i v e n a unit c h a n g e in an y g iv e n v a riab le, h o l d
ing all o th e r v a ria b le s in th e a n a ly s is c o n s ta n t.
Appendix 2
Technical Issues Regarding the

National Longitudinal Survey of
Youth
T h is a p p e n d ix p rovid es details ab ou t the v a riab les used in the text a n d

ab ou t orher te c h n ic a l issues asso ciated with the N L S Y . 1 C o l l e a g u e s w h o
wish to recreate an a ly ses will need ad d ition al in fo rm a tio n , w hich m ay
be o b tain ed from the a u th o rs.2
SU R V E Y Y E A R , C O N S T A N T D O L L A R S , A N D S A M P L E W E IG H T S
O u r use o f the N L S Y e x te n d s through the 1 9 9 0 su rvey year.1 1

A ll dollar figures are expressed in 1990 dollars, usin g the c o n su m e r
price index inflators as reported in the 1992 e d itio n of Statistical A bstract
of the United Suites, T ab le 737.
S a m p le w eights were em ployed in all an a ly ses in the m a in text. W e
d o not so n o te in e a c h in stance, to simplify th e d esc rip tio n . In c o m
puting scores th a t were based o n the 1 1 ,8 7 8 su b je c ts w ho h ad valid
scores o n the A r m e d Forces Q u a lific a tio n T est ( A F Q T ) , we used the
sam p lin g w eights specifically assigned for rhe A F Q T p o p u la tio n . F or
analyses based o n the N L S Y su b jec ts status as o f a g iv e n year (u su ally
1990), we used th e sam p lin g w eights for that su rvey year. For a n a ly ses
in w hich the c h ild re n o f N L S Y w om en were rhe u n it o f analysis, th e
c h ild s sam p lin g w eig h ts were used rather th a n th e m o t h e r s.
T o m ak e in terp retatio n o f rhe statistical s ig n ific a n c e easier, we r e p li
cated all the an alyses in Part II using just the u n w e ig h te d c ro ss- se c tio n a l
sam p le of w hites, as reported in A p p e n d i x 4.
570 Appendix 2
S C O R I N G O F T H E A R M E D F O R C E S Q U A L IF IC A T IO N T E S T
(A F Q T )
T h e A F Q T is a c o m b in a tio n of highly g-loaded suhtests from the A rm e d

S e r v i c e s V o c a t io n a l A ptitu d e Battery ( A S V A B ) that serves as the
a r m e d s e r v i c e s m easure of c ognitive ability, described in detail in A p
p e n d ix 3. U n t i l 1989, the A F Q T consisted the su m m ed raw scores or
th e A S V A B s arith m etic reasoning, word knowledge, and paragraph
c o m p r e h e n s i o n suhtests, plus half of the score on num erical o p eration s
su b test. In 1 9 8 9 , the armed forces decided to rescore the A F Q T so that
it c o n siste d o f th e word knowledge, paragraph c o m p re h e n sio n , arith
m e tic r e a so n in g , and m ath em atic s knowledge subtests. T h e reason for
the c h a n g e was to avoid the num erical operation s subtest, w hich was
b o t h less h igh ly g-loaded than the m ath em atic s k n o w led ge subtest and
se n sitiv e to sm all discrepancies in rhe time given to subjects when a d
m in iste rin g the test (num erical operation s is a speeded test in w hich the
su b je c t c o m p l e t e s as m any arithm etic problem s as possible w ithin a time
lim it).
A draft of The Bell C urve was well underway when we b e c a m e aware
of the 1989 sc o r in g scheme. We c om pleted a full draft using the 1980
s c o rin g system b u t decided that the revised scoring system was psycho-
m e tric al ly su p erio r to the old on e and therefore replicated all oi the
a n a ly ses u sin g the 1989 version.
S c h o l a r s w h o wish to replicate our analyses should note that the 1989
A F Q T score as reported in the N L S Y d atab ase is not the o n e used in the
text. T h e N L S Y s variable is rounded to the nearest whole c e n tile and
b a sed o n th e 18- to 2 3-year-old subset o f the N L S Y sam ple. W e r e c o m
p u ted rhe A F Q T from scratch using rhe raw subtesr scores, and the p o p
ulatio n m e a n anti standard d ev iatio n used in producing the across-ages
A F Q T sc o re was based on all 11,878 subjects, not just those ages 18 to
2 3 HIT h i s m e a s u r e is useful for m ultivariate analyses in w hich ag e is also
e n te re d as a n in d e p e n d e n t variable but should not be used (a n d is nev er
used in th e t e x t) as a representation of an individual su b je c ts c o g n itiv e
ab ility b e c a u s e of age-related differences in test scores (see d iscussio n
b elo w ).
Age
A F Q T s c o r e s in th e N L S Y sam p le rose by an average of .07 stan dard d e

v i a ti o n s per year. T h e sim plest e x p la n a tio n for this is that the A F Q T
Appendix 2 571
was d esig n ed by the military for a p o p u la tio n of re c ru its w h o would he

taking the test in their late reens, an d y o u n g er s u b j e c t s in the N L S Y
sam p le got lower scores for the sam e reason t h a t h i g h s c h o o l fresh m en
get lower S A T scores th an h igh sc h o o l seniors. H o w e v e r, a c ohort e f
fect could also be at work, whereby (b ec au se o f e d u c a t i o n a l or broad e n
v iro n m en ta l reaso n s) youths born in the first h a l f of th e 1 9 6 0 s had low er
realized c o g n itiv e ability than youths born in th e last h a l f o f the 1 95 0s.
T h e r e is n o e m p iric al way of telling w h ich r e a s o n really explains the
age-related differen ces in the A F Q T or w hat th e m i x o f reasons m ig h t
be. T h e age-related increase is no t perfectly l in e a r (it levels off in the
top two years) but clo se en o u gh that the age p r o b l e m is b e st h a n d le d in
the m u ltivariate analyses by en terin g the s u b j e c t s h i rth d a te as an i n d e
p e n d e n t va riab le (all the N L S Y sa m p le to o k th e A F Q T within a few
m o n th s of ea c h o th e r in late 1980).
For all an a ly ses cxcept. the m u ltivariate r e g r e s s io n analyses, we use
age-equ ated scores. T h e s e were prod u ced by u s in g th e s a m p le w eight as
a frequency, th e n preparin g separate d istr ib u tio n s by birth year, e x
pressed in c e n tile s .^ 1 E a c h s u b je c ts rank in t h a t p o p u la t io n ( m a t h e
matically, the p o p u la tio n is the sum of th e s a m p l e w eights for th a t
birth year) was d iv id e d by the p op u latio n to o b t a i n th e centile w here
thar su bject fell w ith in his birth year c o h o r t.161
T h a r A F Q T scores vary a c c o rd in g to e d u c a t i o n raises an ad d itio n a l
issue: To w hat e x t e n t is the A F Q T a m easu re o f c o g n i t i v e ability, an d
nor just length an d quality o f ed u c atio n ? W e e x p l o r e th is issue at le n g th
in A p p e n d i x 3.
Skew
T h e d istribution o f the A F Q T in eith er o f its v e r s i o n s is skewed so th a t

rhe high scores tend to be m ore closely b u n c h e d t h a n the low sc ores.
T o put it roughly, the m ost intelligent p eop le w h o ta k e th e test h a v e less
of an op p ortu n ity to get a high score than th e le a st in tellig en t p e o p le
h av e to get a low score. O n e effect is ro lim it a rtific ia lly the m a x im u m
size o f a stan dardized score. It is artificial b e c a u s e t h e A F Q T does in fact
d isc rim in ate reaso n ab ly well at the h ig h en d o f t h e sc ale . For e x a m p le ,
only 22 youth s ou t of 11,878 in the N L S Y w ith v a li d A F Q T sc o re s
earned perfect scores o n the subtests, re p r e se n tin g 0.25.3 percent o f the
n ation al p o p u la tio n o f their age ( u sin g s a m p li n g w e i g h t s ). In a test w ith
a norm al d istribution , those youths would h a v e h a d a stan dardized sc o re
5 72 Appendix 2
o f 2 .8 0 . But given rhe skew in the N L S Y , it is im possible for a n y o n e to

h a v e a stan dardized score h ig h e r t h a n 1.66. T h e stan dard d ev iatio n for
a h igh - sc o rin g group is sim ilarly squeezed.
A c e rta in a m o u n t o f skew is n o t a c o n c e rn for many kinds of a n a ly
sis. For the analyses in The Bell C u rv e , however, the difference b etw een
tw o groups is often exp ressed in term s o f s tan d a rd deviations, and th e
size o f th at difference was likely to he affected by skew.
W e therefore c o m p u te d stan d a rd ized scores corrected for skew, first
by c o m p u t i n g the c en tile scores for th e N L S Y p op u latio n , using sa m p le
w e ig h ts as always, th e n a ssig n in g to e a c h su b je c t the standardized sc o re
c o r r e s p o n d in g to th a t c e n tile in a n o rm a l distribution. W e did this for
b o t h the old and new v e rsio n s o f t h e A F Q T . Following arm ed fo rc e s
c o n v e n t io n , all scores g reater or s m a lle r th an 3 standard d e v ia tio n s from
th e m e a n were set at 3 stan d a rd d e v ia tio n s (this affected only a sm all
n u m b e r of scores at the low end o f th e d istribu tion ).
T h e effects o f c o rre c tin g for skew were n o tic eab le when ex p re ssin g
differen ces betw een groups. For e x a m p le , for the most sen sitiv e group
c o m p a r iso n , betw een e th n ic g roups, the results are show n in the f o l
low ing table. A s always w h e n full in fo rm a tio n about m eans, stan d a rd
C o m p a r iso n o f T w o V e r s io n s o f T h e A F Q T ,
U n c o r r e c te d a n d C o r r e c te d fo r S k ew
B la c k / L a t in o /
V e r s io n o f C o rre c te d W h ite D if - W h it e D i f
th e A F Q T fo r S k e w ? B la c k L a tin o W h it e fe r e n c e fe r e n c e s
M ean SD M ean S I) M ean SD
Pre-19,89 No -.97 .91 -.67 1.01 .24 .88 1.36 1.02
vO
O
1
be
Yes -.64 .9 ) .23 .92 1.25 .94

1989 revision No -.93 .87 -.67 .98 .23 .90 1.30 .99
Yes -.88 .85 - .64 .94 .22 .92 1.21 .93
d e v i a t io n s , a n d sa m p le sizes is a v a ila b le , the g ro u p differences are c o m

p u te d usin g the w eigh ted a v e r a g e o f the g ro u p s standard d e v iatio n s.
T h e e q u a t io n is g iv e n in n o t e 25 for C h a p t e r 13.T h e primary effect of
t h e skew was to squeeze th e sta n d a r d d e v ia tio n o f the h igher-scoring
g r o u p (w h ite s) and, in c o m p a r is o n , e lo n g a t e the stan dard d ev iatio n o f
t h e lower scoring groups. C o r r e c t i n g for skew thus shran k b o th th e
b la c k -w h ite an d L a tin o - w h ite d ifferen ces. T h e sam e p h e n o m e n o n a f
fec ted all c o m p a r iso n s in v o l v i n g su b g ro u p s with markedly different
Appendix 2 573
A F Q T m eans. A ll stan d a rd ized A F Q T sc o r e s, fo r b o t h the regression

analyses and the a g e - e q u a te d sc o res, are t h e r e fo r e c o r r e c te d for skew. In
o th e r words, ea c h re p re se n ts th e s t a n d a r d i z e d s c o r e in a n o rm a l distri
bu tio n that c orresp on d s t o th e ( u n r o u n d e d ) c e n t i l e sc o re o f the subject
in the ob served d istrib u tio n .
T h e effects o f the d iffe re n t s c o r i n g m e t h o d s o n e t h n i c differences
raise a larger q u estio n t h a t we s h o u ld a n s w e r d irec tly : H o w w ould the
results presented in this b o o k be d iffe r e n t if w e h a d used the 1 9 8 0 ver
sion o f the A F Q T in stead o f the 1 9 8 9 v e r s i o n ? If we h a d no t corrected
for skew instead o f c o r r e c tin g for skew ? F or m o s t an a ly s e s, the answ er is
th at the results are u n affe cte d . B u t it m a y a l s o b e sa id th at w h en ev er
Why N o t J u s t U s e C en tiles?
O n e way of avoiding the sk e w pro b le m is to le a v e th e A F Q T scores in cen-

tiles. T h is was unsatisfactory, however, for we k n e w from collateral data
that much o f the im po rtant role o f IQ o c cu r s at th e tails o f the distribu
tion. U sin g centiles throws away in fo rm a tio n a b o u t th e tails. ( S e e A p
pendix 1 o n the normal d is tr ib u tio n .)
differences were found, th e s c o r i n g p r o c e d u r e we used ten d e d to pro

d u ce sm aller relatio n sh ip s b e t w e e n I Q a n d t h e in d ic a to rs, an d sm aller
eth n ic differences, t h a n t h e a l t e r n a t iv e s . W e d id n o t c o m p u te every
analysis by e ac h o f th e fo u r s c o r i n g p e r m u t a t i o n s , b u t w e did replicate
all o f the analyses using t h e tw o e x t r e m e s ( 1 9 8 0 v e r s i o n un corrected for
skew a n d th e 19 89 v e rsio n c o r r e c te d fo r s k e w ) . In n o in stan c e did the
1989 version corrected fo r s k e w th e v e r s i o n re p o rte d in th e text
yield sign ificant fin d in g s t h a t w ere n o t a l s o f o u n d w h e n usin g th e 1980
u n corrected version. In te r m s o f t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p s e x p lo r e d in th is book,
the 1989 v ersion c o rre c te d for s k e w is th e m o s t c o n s e r v a t i v e o f rhe a l
ternatives.
T H E SO C IO EC O N O M IC S T A T U S IN D E X
T h e S E S in dex was c r e a te d w ith th e v a r i a b l e s t h a t a re c o m m o n ly used

in d e v e lo p in g m easures o f s o c i o e c o n o m i c s t a t u s : e d u c a t io n , incom e,
574 Appendix 2
a n d o c c u p a t i o n . S i n c e the purpose o f the index was to m easu re the s o

c i o e c o n o m i c e n v ir o n m e n t in which the N L S Y youth was raised, rhe
sp e c ific v a ria b le s e m p lo y ed referred to the parents status: total n e t fa m
ily in c o m e , m o t h e r s education, fathers ed u catio n, and an in dex of o c
c u p a t i o n a l sta t u s o f the adults living with the subject at the age of 14.
T h e p o p u la t io n for the c o m p u ta tio n was limited to the 11,878 N L S Y
su b j e c t s w ith v a lid A F Q T scores. In more detail:
M o t h e r s e d u c a t io n and fath e rs ed ucatio n were based on years of e d
u c a t i o n , c o n v e r t e d to standardized scores.
F a m ily in c o m e was based o n the averaged total net family in c o m e for
1 9 7 8 a n d 1979, in c o n sta n t dollars, when figures for bo th years were
a v a il a b le . If in c o m e for only one o f the two years was reported, th at year
w a s used . Fam ily in co m e was excluded if the subject was a S c h e d u l e ( '
in te rv ie w e e (th e reported incom e for the year in q u estio n referred to his
or h e r o w n in c o m e , no t to the parental h o u se h o ld s in co m e ). T h e d o l
lar figure w as ex p ressed as a logarithm before bein g standardized. T h is
p ro c e d u re , c u sto m a r y when working with incom e d ata, h as the effect of
d is c o u n t in g e x tre m e ly high valu es of in co m e and p erm ittin g greater d is
c r im in a t io n a m o n g lower in comes. A m inim um standardized v alu e of
4 was set for in co m es of less than $ 1 ,0 0 0 (all figures are in 1990
d o lla rs).
P a r e n ta l o c c u p a t io n was coded with a modified version o f the D u n
c a n s o c i o e c o n o m i c index, grouping the D u n c an values (w hich go from
1 to 10 0 ) in to deciles. A value o f -I was assigned to persons out of the
la b o r force altog eth e r. It was assum ed that the fam ilys so c io e c o n o m ic
s ta t u s is p r e d o m in a n tly d eterm ined by rhe higher o f the two o c c u p a
tio n s h eld by tw o parents. T h u s the oc c u p atio n al variable was based on
rhe h ig h e r o f th e tw o ratings o f the two parents. T h e in crem en t in s o
c i o e c o n o m i c sta tu s represented by bo th parents h old in g h igh-status o c
c u p a t i o n s is in directly reflected in the higher incom e and in the two
e d u c a t i o n a l variab les. T h e eleven values in the modified D u n c a n scale
w ere stan d a rd ized .
T h e re liability o f the four-indicator index ( C r o n b a c h s a ) is .76. T h e
c o r r e l a t i o n s a m o n g rhe c o m p o n e n ts o f the index are shown in the table.
T h e fo u r v a ria b le s were sum m ed and averaged. If only a subset of v a ri
ab le s h a d v a lid scores, that subset was su m m ed and averaged. By far the
m o s t c o m m o n m issin g variable was family in com e, since m any o f the
N L S Y y o u th s were already living in in d ep en d en t h o u se h o ld s as o f
Appendix 2 575
C o r r e la tio n s o f I n d ic a t o r s in th e
S o c io e c o n o m ic S t a t u s I n d e x
M others F a th e r s Parental
Education E d u catio n O ccupation
Fathers e d ucation .6 }
Parental oc cu p a tio n .47 .55
Family income .36 .4 0 .47
the b eg in n in g of the survey, a n d h e n c e w e re rep o rtin g their ow n

in com e, no t p aren ta l incom e. O v e r a l l , d a t a w e re a v a ila b le on all four
indicators for 7 ,4 4 7 subjects, for th r e e o n a n a d d it i o n a l 3,612, on two
for 6 7 9 , and on o n e for 138. Two s u b j e c t s w ith v a li d scores o n the A F Q T
had no in form ation av ailab le on an y of th e fo u r in dicators. For use in
the regression analyses, rhe S E S in d e x s c o r e s were set to a m ean o f 0
and a standard d e v ia tio n ot 1.
E D U C A T IO N A L A T T A IN M E N T
H ighest Cirade C om p leted .
T h e N I .S Y c reates a variable ea c h year for h i g h e s t g rad e c o m p le te d ,

in co rp orating in fo rm atio n from se v e ra l q u e s t i o n s . ' F or analyses based
on the o c c u rre n c e of an ev en t (e.g., t h e b i r t h ol a c h ild ), the value of
highest grade c o m p l e t e d for the c o n t e m p o r a n e o u s survey year is used.
For all oth e r analyses, rhe 1990 v a lu e for h i g h e s t g rad e c o m p le te d is
used. V alues run trom 0 through 20.
H ighest D egree E v e r Received
In rhe 1 9 8 8 - 1 9 9 0 surveys, rhe N L S Y a sk e d r e s p o n d e n t s to report the

highest degree they had ever receiv ed. T h e p o s s i b le re sp o n se s were: h igh
sch ool d ip lom a , asso ciate degree, b a c h e l o r ot arts, b a c h e l o r of sc ien ce,
m asters, Ph.D ., professional d egree (law , m e d i c i n e , dentistry), an d
"o th er. T h e s e self-reported d egrees w ere s o m e t i m e s q u estio n ab le, e s
pecially w hen the d egree did nor c o r r e s p o n d ro t h e n u m b e r ot years of
ed u c atio n (e.g., a b a c h e l o r s d eg ree for s o m e o n e w h o also reported on ly
fourteen years of e d u c a tio n ). T o e l i m i n a t e r h e m o st egregiously s u s p i
576 Appendix 2
c io u s cases, we m a d e ad justm ents. For those who reported their h ighest

d eg re e as b e i n g a h igh school d ip lom a , we required at least e le v e n re
p o rted years of c o m p le te d ed ucatio n. For degrees beyond the h igh school
d ip lo m a , we required that the report o f the highest grade c o m p le te d be
w ith in at le a st o n e year o f the norm al num ber of years required to o b
t a i n th at d eg ree. Specifically, the m in im u m num ber o f years o f c o m
p le te d years of e d u c a tio n required to use a reported degree were thirteen
for the A s s o c i a t e s degree, fifteen for a b a ch elo rs degree, six te e n for a
m a s te r s d egree, an d 18 for a Ph.D ., law degree, or m edical degree.
W e also e m p lo y e d the N L S Y s variables to d isc rim in ate betw een
th o se w hose term in al degree was a high school d ip lom a versus a G E D .
W e e x c lu d e d th e 190 persons whose degree was listed as o th e r, after
trying fruitlessly to c o m e up with a satisfactory m ean s o f e stim a tin g what
th e o th e r m e a n t from collateral ed u c atio n al data.
T h e h ig h s c h o o l and college grad u ate sam ples used th ro u gh o u t
Part II are d e sig n e d to isolate pop ulatio ns with h o m o g e n e o u s e d u c a
tio n a l e x p e r ie n c e s as o f the 1990 survey year. T h e high sc h o o l sam p le
is defined as th ose w h o reported twelve years o f c o m p le te d ed u c atio n
a n d a h igh s c h o o l d ip lom a received through rhe n o rm al process (i.e.,
e x c lu d in g G E D s ) as the highest attained degree. T h e colleg e grad uate
s a m p le is d e fin e d as all those who reported sixteen years of co m p le te d
e d u c a tio n a n d a B .A . or B.S. as the highest attained degree.
T ran sition to C ollege
In C h a p t e r 1, we used the N L S Y to d eterm ine the p erc en tag e of stu

d e n t s in v a riou s IQ groupings w ho went directly to college. W e lim ited
th e analysis to stu d en ts who obtain ed a high school d ip lo m a betw een
J a n u a r y 1 9 8 0 a n d July 1982, m ean in g that all subjects had tak en the
A F Q T prior to a tt e n d in g college. T h e analysis thus also reflects the e x
p e r ie n c e of th o se w ho ob tain their high school d ip lom a via the no rm al
ro u te ( c o m p a r a b l e to the analyses from the 1960s and 1920s, w hich
are also rep orted in the sam e figure). A subject is classified as a tte n d in g
c o l le g e in th e year following grad u ation if he reported h a v in g enrolled
in c o lleg e at an y p o in t in the c alen d ar year following the d a te of
g r a d u a tio n .
Appendix 2 577
M A R IT A L A N D F E R T IL IT Y V A R IA B L E S
A ll variables relatin g to m arital h istory a n d c h il d b e a r i n g em ployed th e

N L S Y s synthesis as c o n ta in e d in t h e 1 9 9 0 F ertility File o f the N L S Y .
B IR T H W E IG H T
T h e m ost c o m m o n ly reported m e a su re o f a p r o b l e m a t i c birth weight is

low birth w e ig h t, d efin ed as n o m o re t h a n 5 .5 p o u n d s. In its raw.form,
however, low birth w eight is lim ite d as a m e a s u r e becau se it is c o n
foun ded with prematurity. A b a b y b o r n fi v e w eek s prematurely will
prohably weigh less th a n 5.5 p o u n d s a n d y e r be a fully d ev elop ed ,
health y child for g e sta tio n a l age, w ith e x c e l l e n t prosp ects. C onversely,
a child carried to term but w e ig h in g s lig h tly m o r e t h a n the cutoff of 5.5
pounds is ( g iv e n p a re n ts o f av e rag e sta t u r e ) s m a l l for its gestational age.
We th erefore created a va riab le e x p r e s s in g t h e b a b y s birth weight as a
ratio o f the w eight for fetuses at the 5 0 th c e n t i l e fo r th at gestational ag e,
using rhe C o l o r a d o In trau terin e G r o w t h C h a r t s as the basis for the c o m
putation. If a baby w eighed less t h a n 5.5 p o u n d s but th e ratio was e q u a l
to or greater than 1, th at case was e x c l u d e d f r o m the analysis. All u ses
o f this variab le in C h a p t e r s 10 a n d 13 a re b a s e d o n a sam p le that is e x
clusively white ( L a t i n o or n o n - L a t i n o ) or b l a c k , therehy sidesteppin g
the c o m p lic a tio n s th at would b e i n t r o d u c e d by the pop u latio ns o f
sm aller stature, su c h as East A s ia n s . W e fu r t h e r ex c lu d ed cases re p o rt
ing gestation a l ages o f less th a n tw e n ty -six w e e k s , reports o f p r e g n a n
cies that lasted m o re th a n forty-four w e e k s o r b irth w'eights in excess o f
thirteen p oun d s, a n d o n e r e m a rk a b le c a s e in w h i c h a m o th er reported
g estation o f twenty-six weeks an d a b i r th w e i g h t o f m ore than tw elve
pounds.
Appendix 3
Technical Issues Regarding the

Armed Forces Qualification Test
as a Measure of IQ
T h r o u g h o u t The B c llC u rv e, we use th e A r m e d Forces Q ualification Test

( A F Q T ) as a m easure of IQ. T h is a p p e n d i x d isc u sse s a variety o f related
issues that may h e lp readers interpret t h e m e a n i n g o f the analyses p re
sented in the full text.
D O E S T H E A F Q T M E A S U R E T H E S A M E T H I N G T H A T IQ T E S T S
M EA SU R E?
T h e A F Q T is a paper-and -p encil test d e s i g n e d for youths who hav e

reached their late teens. In effect, it a s s u m e s e x p o su re to an ordinary
high sc h o o l e d u c a tio n (or the o p p o r tu n i ty to g e t o n e ). T h is kind o f re
striction is sh ared hy any IQ test, all of w h i c h are d esigned for certain
groups.
T h e A F Q T as scored hy the arm ed fo r c e s is no t ag e referenced. T h e
armed forces h a v e no need to do so, b e c a u s e t h e ov erw h elm in g m a jo r
ity of recruits raking the test are 18 a n d 19 y ears old. In contrast, the
N L S Y sam p le varied from 14 to 23 y ears o l d w h en they took the test.
T h erefore, as discussed in A p p e n d i x 3, a ll a n a ly s e s in the book take age
into a c c o u n t th ro u gh o n e o f two m e t h o d s : e n t e r i n g ag e as an in d e p e n
dent variable in the m ultivariate a n a ly s e s , a n d , for all descriptive sta
tistics, age referencing the A F Q T sc o re by e x p r e s s in g it in terms of the
m ean and stan d a rd d e v ia tio n for e a c h y e a r s birth c oh ort. In this a p
pendix, we will uniform ly use the a g e - r e f e r e n c e d v ersion for analyses
based on the N L S Y .
Is a set o f age-referenced A F Q T s c o r e s ap p ro p ria te ly treated as IQ
scores? W e a p p r o a c h this issue from tw o p e r s p e c t iv e s . First, we ex am in e
580 Appendix 3
t h e in ternal p sy c h o m e tric properties of the A F Q T and show th at the

A F Q T is o n e of the m o st highly g-loaded m en tal tests in current use. It
s e e m s to d o w h a t a g o o d IQ test is supposed to d o tap into a general
f a c t o r rather th a n specific hits o f learning or skill as well as or better
t h a n its c o m p e tito r s. S e c o n d , we ex am in e rhe c orrelation b e tw e e n the
A F Q T an d o th e r I Q tests, a n d show that the A F Q T is m ore highly cor-
r e l a te d with a w ide range o f other m ental tests than those o th e r m e n
tal te sts are with e a c h other. O n bo th counts, the A F Q T q ualifies not
j u s t as an I Q test, but o n e o f the better on es psychometrically.
Psychom etric C h aracteristics o f the A S V A B
L e t us begin by c o n sid e rin g the larger test from which the A F Q T is c o m

p u te d , the A S V A B ( A r m e d Services V o c ation al A p t itu d e Battery),
ta k e n every year by b e tw e e n a h a lf million and a m illion you n g adults
w h o are a p p ly in g for entry in to o n e o f the arm ed services. T h e A S V A B
h a s t e n subtests, s p a n n in g a range from test items th at could app ear
e q u ally well on s ta n d a rd tests o f in telligence ro items testing know ledge
of a u to m o b ile repair an d electro n ics.1" S c o re s on the subtests d eterm in e
w h e t h e r the a p p li c a n t will be ac c ep ted by his c h o sen b ra n c h of service;
for th o se a c c e p te d , rhe scores are later used for the p la c e m e n t of enlisted
p e rso n n e l in to m ilitary oc c u p atio n s. H ow well or poorly a person per
form s in m ilitary o c c u p a tio n a l training schools, and also how well he
d o e s o n the job, c a n therefore be evalu ated against the scores e arn e d on
a b a tte ry o f stan dardized tests.
T h e ten su b tests o f A S V A B c a n be paired off into forty-five c o rre
la tio n s. O f th e forty-five, the three highest correlations in a large study
o f e n liste d p e r s o n n e l were betw een Word K n ow ledge an d G e n e r a l S c i
e n c e , W o r d K n o w le d g e and Paragraph C o m p le tio n , and, h igh e st o f all,
b e t w e e n M a t h e m a t i c s K n o w le d g e and A rith m etic R easo n in g." C o r r e
l a tio n s a b o v e .8, as th ese were, are in the range observed b e tw e e n dif
fe re n t IQ tests, w h ich are frankly constructed to m easu re the sam e
atrrih u te. T o see th e m arisin g betw een tests of such different subject
m a t t e r sh o u ld alert us to so m e deeper level of m ental fu n c tio n in g . T h e
th re e low est c o rre la tio n s, n o n e lower than .22, were b etw een C o d i n g
S p e e d and M e c h a n i c a l C o m p re h e n sio n , N u m erica l O p e r a t io n s and
A u t o / S h o p In fo r m a t io n , and, lowest o f all, betw een C o d i n g S p e e d and
A u t o m o b i l e / S h o p In fo rm atio n . Betw een those ex trem es, there were
ra th e r large c o r r e la tio n s betw een Paragraph C o m p le ti o n an d G e n e r a l
Appendix 3 581
S c ie n c e an d b etw een W ord K n o w le d g e and E le c tro n ic s In fo rm atio n

but on ly m o d e r a te c o rrelation s betw een E le c tro n ic s In fo rm ation a n d
C o d i n g S p e e d an d be tw e e n M a th e m a tic s K n o w le d g e an d A u t o m o
bile/S h op In fo rm atio n . T h irty -six of th e forty-five c orrelations were
ab ove .5.
Psycho m etrics a p p ro a c h e s a table o f c o rre la tio n s with o n e or a n o t h e r
of its m e th o d s for factor analysis. F actor analysis (or o th e r m a t h e m a t i
cal procedures th ar g o u nder o th e r n am es) e x tr a c ts the fac to rs111 that a c
cou n t for the ob served p attern o f subtest scores. T h e ba sic idea is t h a t
scores on any p air of tests are correlated to the e x t e n t th at the tests m e a
sure s o m e th in g in c o m m o n : If they test traits in c o m m o n , they are c o r
related, a n d if not, nor. Factor analysis tells how m any different
underlying facto rs are necessary to a c c o u n t for the o b serv ed co rrelation s
betw een rhem . If, for e xam p le, th e subtest scores were totally uncorre-
lared, ir would take ten in d ep en d en t and equally sig n ific a n t factors, o n e
for ea c h subrest by itself. W ith e ac h test draw ing o n its o w n unique f a c
tor, the forty-five correlation s would all be zeros. At. th e o th e r ex trem e,
if the subtests m easured precisely the sam e th in g d o w n to the very s m a l l
est detail, th en all the c orrelations am o n g scores on rhe subrests c o u ld
be e x p la in e d by a sin gle factor that thing w h ic h all the subtests p r e
cisely m easu red a n d the c orrelations would all be ones. N e ith e r e x
treme describes the actuality, but for m easu res of in tellectual
p erform ance, o n e large factor c o m e s closer t h a n m a n y sm all ones. T h i s
is not rhe p la c e to dwell o n m a th e m a tic a l derails e x c e p t to note th a t,
contrary to c la im s in n o n te c h n ic a l w orks,4 the c o n c lu sio n s we d raw
about general in te llig e n c e do nor d epe n d o n th e p articular m e th o d of
analysis u sed .1
For rhe A S V A B , 6 4 percen t o f the v a ria n c e a m o n g th e ten su b test
scores is a c c o u n te d for by a single factor, g. A se c o n d factor a c c o u n ts for
a n o th er 1 3 percent. W ith three inferred factors, 82 p e rc e n t o f the v a r i
ance is a c c o u n te d for.1*1 T h e in tercorrelation s in d ic ate th a t p eop le d o
vary im p ortan tly in so m e single, underlying trait a n d th at those v a r i a
tions affect how they d o o n every test. N o r is th e p re d o m in a n c e o f g a
fortuitous result o f the particular subtests in A S V A B . T h e air forces a p
titude rest for p ro sp e c tiv e officers, the A F O Q T ( A i r Force Officer Q u a l
ifying T est) sim ilarly h as g as its m ajor sou rce o f in d ivid u a l v a r ia t io n .7
Indeed, all bro ad -gau ged test batteries of c o g n i tiv e ability h a v e g a s t h e ir
m ajor source of v a ria tio n a m o n g the scores p e o p le g e t.s
582 Appendix 3
T h e n aiv e theory assu m es that when scores on two subtests are c o r

related, it is because o f o v e rla p p in g c on ten t. But it is im possible to m ake
sense o f the varying c o rre la tio n s between the subtests in term s ot o v e r
lapping c on ten t. C o n s id e r again the correlation betw een A r ith m e tic
R easo n in g a n d M a th e m a tic a l Know ledge, which is the highest ot all. It
may seem to rest simply o n a know ledge o f m a th e m a tic s and arithm etic.
However, the score on N u m e r ic a l O p e ra tio n s is less correlated with e i
ther o f those two tests th a n the two are with each other. C o n t e n t p ro
vides no clue as to why. A rith m e tic R easo n in g has only word p roblem s
on it; M a th e m a tic a l K n o w le d g e applies the basic m e th o d s of algebra
and geometry; an d N u m e ric a l O p era tio n s is an a rithm etic test. W h y are
scores on algebra and g eo m etry more sim ilar to those o n word problem s
th an to those o n arith m etic ? S u c h variations in the c o rre la tio n s b e
tween the subtests arise, in fact, less from c o m m o n c o n te n t th an from
how m uch they draw o n the underlying ability we call g. T h e varying
correlations between th e subtests preclude e x p la in in g g away as, for e x
am ple, simply a m atter ot test-taking ability or test-takin g e x p erien ce,
which should affect all tests m ore or less equally. We try to m a k e som e
o f these ideas visible in the figure below.
T h e relatio n of th e A S V A B s u b te sts to each o th e r a n d to g
Correlation with g
1.0 -
0 .9 -
AKGS
, WK
E/# M K
0 .8 -
NO
0 .7 -
AS
cs
0.6 - Boid: Subtests used
in the A FQ T
0 .5 0.6 0 .7
A verage correlation with the other subtests
Appendix 3 583
For e ac h .subtest o n A S V A B , we a v e r a g e d th e n in e correlations w ith

each o f the o th e r suhtests, and th a t a v e r a g e c o r r e la tio n defines the h o r
izontal axis. T h e vertical axis is a m e a s u r e , for e a c h subtest, o f the
c orrelation be tw e e n the score an d g . 9 T h e two-letter cod es identify
the suhtests. A t the top is G e n e r a l S c i e n c e ( G S ) , closely follow ed
by Word K n o w le d g e ( W K ) , a n d A r i t h m e t i c a l R e a so n in g ( A R ) , for
which rhe scores are highly c o r r e la te d w i t h g an d hav e rhe h i g h e s t
average c o rre la tio n s with all th e s u b te s ts . A n o t h e r three suhtests
M a th e m a tic s K n o w le d g e ( M K ) , P a r a g r a p h C o m p r e h e n s io n ( P C ) , a n d
Electronics In fo rm atio n ( E l ) are j u s t s l ig h tl y below the top c lu s t e r
in hoth respects. A t the b o tto m a re C o d i n g S p e e d ( C S ) , A u t o
m o b ile /S h o p In fo rm a tio n ( A S ) , N u m e r i c a l O p e ra tio n s ( N O ) , an d
M e c h a n ic a l C o m p r e h e n s io n ( M C ) , s u h t e s t s th at correlate, o n th e
average, rhe least with oth e r su b te sts a n d a r e also the least c o rre late d
with g ( a l t h o u g h still substan tially c o r r e l a t e d in their own right). T h e
bottom group in clu d es the two s p e e d e d s u b te s ts , C S and N O , th ereb y
refuting a n o t h e r c o m m o n m is u n d e r s t a n d i n g a b o u t g, which is t h a t
it refers to m e n ta l speed and little m o r e . V irtu ally without e x c e p tio n ,
the m ore d e p e n d e n t a subtest score is o n g , the h igh e r is its a v e r a g e
c orrelation with the oth e r suhtests. T h i s is the p attern that betra y s
what m e a n s a broad m e n ta l c a p a c i t y that p erm eates p e rfo rm
ance on a n y th in g th at c h a lle n g e s p e o p l e cognitively. A rough rule
of th u m b is rh at item s or tests t h a t r e q u ir e m e n ta l com plexity draw
more o n g t h a n item s that d o n o t t h e difference, for e x a m p le ,
between sim ply rep eatin g a string of n u m b e r s after hearing them o n c e ,
w hich d o es n o t m u c h test g, a n d r e p e a t i n g t h e m in reverse order, w h ic h
d o e s .10
T h e four su btests used in the 1 9 8 9 s c o r i n g version o f the A F Q T ( t h e
on e used th r o u g h o u t the tex t) a n d t h e i r g l o a d in g s are Word K n o w le d g e
(.8 7 ), P aragrap h C o m p r e h e n s io n ( . 8 1 ) , A r i t h m e t i c R easo n in g ( . 8 7 ) ,
and M a t h e m a t ic s K n ow led g e ( . 8 2 ) . 1111 T h e A F Q T is thus one o f th e
m ost highly g -lo a d ed tests in use. By w ay o f c o m p a r is o n , the factor l o a d
ings for the e l e v e n subtests o f the W e c h s l e r A d u l t Intelligence S c a l e
( W A I S ) ran ge from .63 to .83, w ith a m e d i a n of .6 9 .1121 W h erea s th e first
factor, g, a c c o u n ts for over 70 p e r c e n t o f t h e v a ria n c e in the A F Q T , it
ac c o u n ts for on ly 53 percen t in the W A I S .
584 Appendix 3
Correlations o f the A F Q T with Other IQ Tests
O u r se c o n d ap p roach to the question, Is the A F Q T a n I Q test? is to ask

how the A F Q T correlates with other well-known stan dardized m en tal
tests (see the table below). W e c a n do so by m ak in g use o f th e high
s c h o o l transcript survey c o n d u c te d by the N L S Y in 1979. In ad d itio n
t o g ath erin g in form ation ab o u t grades, th e survey p ic k ed u p any oth e r
IQ test th at the student had taken within the sch ool system. T h e d ata
usually included both the test score and the p ercentile rank, b a sed o n
n a t io n a l norms. In ac c o rd an c e with the r e c o m m e n d a tio n of the N L S Y
U ser's M an ual, we use percentiles th ro u gh o u t.1
C o rre la tio n s o f th e A F Q T w ith

O th e r IQ T e sts in T h e N L S Y
C o rre la tio n
with the
Sam ple AFQT
C alifornia Test of M ental M aturity 356 .81
C o op School and College A b ility Test 121 .90
Differential A titude Test 443 .81
H en m on Nelson Test of M ental M aturity 152 .71
K uhlm ann-Anderson Intelligence Test 36 .80
Lorge-Thorndike Intelligence Test 170 .72
Otis-Lennnon M ental A b ility Test 530 .81
T h e m agnitudes o f the correlations betw een the A F Q T (u sin g the

age-referenced percentile scores) an d classic IQ tests are as h igh as or
higher than the observed correlations o f the classic IQ tests with ea c h
other. For e x am p le, the b est-k n o w n adult test, the W A I S , is k n o w n ro
correlate (using the m e d ian c orrelation with various studies, a n d not
c o rrec tin g for restriction o f range in the sam p les) with the S tan fo rd -R i-
n e t at .77, with the R a v e n s S ta n d a r d Progressive M a tric es at .72, the
S R A N o n -v e rb a l test at .81, the Peabody Picture V o cab ulary T est at .83,
a n d the O t is at . 7 8 .14 T h e table below summarizes the in terc orrelation s
o f IQ tests, based o n the co m p a riso n s assem bled by A rth u r J e n s e n as o f
1980, an d ad d in g a line for the A F Q T c om pariso n s from the N L S Y . T h e
A F Q T c o m p a re s favorably with the other m ajo r IQ tests by this m e a
sure, w hich in turn is c o n siste n t with the high g-loa d in g o f the A F Q T .
Appendix 3 585
C o r r e la t io n s o f th e M a jo r I Q T e s ts w ith
O th e r S ta n d a rd iz e d M e n ta l T e sts
Median Correlation
with Other
M ental Tests
A F Q T (age-referenced, 1989 scoring) .81
Wechsler-Bellevue I .73
W echsler A d u lt Intelligence Scale ( W A IS ) .77
W echsler Intelligence Scale for C h ild r e n .64
Stanford-Binet .71
Siiun'i': Jensen 1980, Table 8.5, and aurhors an;alys .> of the NLSY.
H O W S E N S I T I V E A R E T H E R E S U L T S T O T H E A S S U M P T IO N
T H A T IQ IS N O R M A L L Y D I S T R I B U T E D ?
A n y good rest d esig n ed to m easure a c o m p l e x ability (whether a test of

co g n itiv e ability or carpentry ab ility) will h a v e several characteristics
th at c o m m o n sen se says are d esirable: a larg e num ber o f items, a wide
range of difficulty a m o n g rhe items, n o m a r k e d gaps in the difficulty of
the items, a variety of types of item s, a n d item s that have some rela-
tion sh ip to e a c h o th e r (i.e., are to so m e d e g re e m easuring the sam e
t h i n g ) . 11 Em pirically, tests with th e se c h arac teristics, adm inistered to a
rep resen ta tiv e sa m p le o f those for w h o m t h e test is intended, will yield
scores th at are spread out in a fa sh io n re se m b lin g a norm al distribution,
or a bell curve. In this sense, tests of m e n t a l ability are not designed to
produce no rm ally distributed scores; t h a t s ju st what happens, the sam e
way that h eig h t is norm ally distributed w ith o u t anyone planning it.
It is also true, how ever, that tests are u su ally scored and standardized
under the assu m p tio n th at in te llig e n c e is n o rm a lly distributed, and this
has led ro alle g a tio n s that p sy c h o m e tric ia n s h av e bamboozled people
into a c c e p tin g th at in telligence is n o r m a l l y distributed, when in fact it
may just be a n artifact o f the way they c h o o s e to measure intelligence.
For a resp on se to such allegatio ns, C h a p t e r 4 of A rth u r J e n s e n s B ias in
M ental Testing ( N e w York: Free Press, 1 9 8 0 ) rem ain s the best discussion
we h av e seen.
For p urposes o f assessing the analyses in this book, it may help re a d
ers to k no w th e e x te n t to which any a s s u m p t io n s about the distribution
o f A F Q T scores m ig h t hav e affec ted t h e results, especially sin ce we
586 Appendix 3
resc.ored the A F Q T to correct for skew (see A p p e n d ix 2). T h e descrip-

rive statistics show ing the breakdow n o f e ac h variable by c o g n itiv e class,
presented in each chapter o f Part 11, address that issue. A s s ig n m e n t to
co g n itiv e classes was based on the s u b je c ts rank within the distribution,
and these ran ks are in variant n o m atter what the norm ality of the d istri
b u tio n m ight be. R an k s were also unaffected by the c orrection for skew.
T h e descriptive statistics in the text were bivariate. To e x a m in e this
issue in a m ultivariate framework, we replicated the analyses of Part II
su b stitu tin g a set of nom inal variables, d en o tin g the c o g n itiv e classes,
for the co n tin u o u s A F Q T measure. T h a t is, rhe regression treated
m em b ersh ip in C la ss I as a n o m in al variable, just as it would treat
m arried o r L a tin o as a n o m in al characteristic and similarly for the
other four c ognitive classes, also entered as n o m in al variables ( S e e A p
pend ix 4 for a discussion o f how' to interpret the coefficients for n o m i
nal v ariab les as created by the software used in these analyses, J M P LO).
Below, we show rhe results for the o p e n in g analysis of Part II ( C h a p t e r
5), the probability of being in poverty.
C o m p a riso n o f re su lts w h en A F Q T is treated as a c o n tin u o u s ,

n o rm ally d istrib u ted v a riab le and w h en it is tre a te d a s a
s e t o f n o m in al c ate g o rie s based on g ro u p in g s by c e n tile
Probability o f being in poverty

30% -
Lin e : When AFQT is treated as

a continuous variable
20 % - C ro sses: When cognitive class is
entered us a vector of nominal
variables
10%-
0% _1----------- 1---- ----- 1----- AFQT score,

I
-2 -1 0 1 in SDs
V IV III II Cognitive Class,
(1 -5 th (5-25th (25-75111 (75-95th (95-99th in centiles
centile) centile) centile) centile) centile)
N ore: For com puting the plot, age and S E S were set ar their mean values.
Appendix 3 587
T h e re su lts o f t h e logistic r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s u s i n g t h e n o r m a l l y
d i s t r ib u t e d A F Q T s c o r e fo llo w :
W h o le -M o d e l Test.
Source OF - L o g L ik e 1ih o od ( 'h iSq u a re P ro h > C h iS q
M odel 5 4 7 7 2 2 2 .0 9 5 4 4 4 3 .9 0.0 0 0 0 0 0
Error 4488 45 8 7 1 6 6 .7
( Tolal 4491 50 6 4 3 8 8 .7
R S q u a re (U ) 0 .0 9 4 2
O b se rv atio n s 4,4 9 2
Param eter E stim ates
Term E stim ate S td Error C h iS q u a re P ro b > C liiS q
Intercept - 2 .6 5 7 9 6 9 2 0 .0 0 0 9 8 2 6 0.0 0 0 0
:A H Q T 89 - 0 .8 1 7 7 0 i l 0 .0 0 1 2 2 2 8 447179 0 .0 0 0 0
:S E S - 0 .2 7 4 4 9 7 1 0 .0 0 1 1 6 6 1 5 5 416 0.0000
-Age - 0 .0 4 8 2 1 5 6 0 .0 0 0 9 1 8 7 2754.1 0.0000
T h e s e are the results using rhe categ oriza tio n into cognitive classes hy
centile:
W h o le -M o d e l Test
Sou rce l)F - L o g l.ik e lih o o d C h iS q u a r e P r o b X 'h iS q
M odel 6 383494.7 7 6 6 9 8 9 .4 0 .000000
Error 4485 4 6 8 0 8 9 4 .0
( ' Total 4491 5064388.7
R S q u a rc (U ) 0 .0 7 5 7
O b se rv atio n s 4,492
Term E stim ate Std Error C h iS q u are P ro b > C h iS q
Intercept - 2 .5 0 9 7 7 1 8 0 .0 0 1 5 8 2 3 0.0 0 0 0
C o g C la s.[l-5 ] - 1 .0 0 6 7 1 6 8 0 .0 0 5 0 6 9 3 39439 0.0000
C ojjC tas.U -51 - 0 .6 8 0 3 6 0 6 0 .0 0 2 5 4 8 6 71265 0.0000
C o g ('la s.|3 -5 ] - 0 .1 9 0 5 0 4 2 0 .0 0 1 8 4 9 8 10606 0.0 0 0 0
C o ^ C la s.[4-5] 0 .6 4 7 6 4 1 0 9 0 .0 0 2 1 3 3 6 92138 0.0 0 0 0
:S E S - 0 .3 9 0 2 9 8 1 0 .0 0 1 1 2 7 6 119800 0.0000
:A g e - 0 .1 6 0 5 9 9 2 0 .0 0 0 9 0 7 31350 0.0 0 0 0
W e repeated th ese co m p a riso n s for a hroad sam p lin g o f rhe o u t c o m e

variables d iscussed in Part 11. T h e results for p o v erty were typical. W h e n
the results for th e tw o expressions o f I Q do n o t correspond (e.g., rhe r e
lationship o f m o t h e r s IQ to low birth weight, as discussed in C h a p t e r
10), the lack o f c o rre sp o n d e n ce also sh o w ed up in the bivariate t a b le
show ing the b rea k d o w n by co g n itiv e class. O r to put it an o th er way, th e
results p resen ted in the te x t using IQ as a c o n tin u o u s, normally d is tr ib
uted variable are prod u ced as well w h e n IQ is treated as a set o f c a t e
588 Appendix 3
gories. A n y e x c e p t io n s to t h a t m a y b e id en tified th ro u g h th e biv ariate

tab les b a s e d o n c o g n itiv e class.
R ELA TIO N SH IP OF T H E A FQ T SCO RE T O E D U C A T IO N A N D

P A R E N T A L SES
T h e relatio n sh ip o f a n I Q test score to e d u c a tio n a n d so c io e c o n o m i c

b a c k g r o u n d is a c o n s t a n t a n d to s o m e e x t e n t u n re so lv a b le sou rce o f con-
troversy. It is k n o w n t h a t th e e n v ir o n m e n t (in c lu d in g e x p o su re to e d u
c a tio n ) affects realized c o g n itiv e ability. To that e x te n t, it is
c o n c e p tu a lly ap p rop ria te t h a t p a re n ta l S E S a n d years o f e d u c a tio n show
a n in d e p e n d e n t c a u sa l effect o n IQ . O n the o th e r h an d, a n I Q test score
is su p p o sed to rep resen t c o g n itiv e ability a n d to h a v e a n in d e p e n d e n t
reality o f its ow n ; in o th e r words, it sh o u ld n o t sim p ly b e a p ro x y m e a
sure o f e ith er p a re n ta l S E S or years o f ed u c a tio n . T h e follow in g d isc u s
sio n e la b o ra te s o n t h e statistica l re la tio n sh ip o f b o t h p a re n ta l S E S a n d
years o f e d u c a tio n to the A F Q T score.
T h e Socioeconom ic S ta tu s In d ex an d the A F Q T Score.
T h e S E S in d e x co n sists o f four in d ic ato rs as d esc rib ed in A p p e n d i x 2:

m o th e r s a n d fa th e rs years o f ed u c a tio n , th e o c c u p a t io n a l status o f the
p a r e n t w ith the higher-status jo b , a n d the p a r e n ts to ta l fam ily in c o m e
in 1 9 7 9 - 1 9 8 0 . T h e c o rrelatio n s o f th e in d e x a n d its four c o n stitu e n t
variab les w ith the A F Q T are in th e tab le below.
Intercorrelations of the AFQT and the Indicators in the

Socioeconomic Status Index
AFQT
Mothers education .43
Fathers education .46
Occupational status .43
Family income .38
S E S Index .55
T h e c o rre la tio n o f A F Q T w ith th e S E S in d e x itself is .55, c o n siste n t

w ith o th e r in v e stig a tio n s o f th is t o p i c . 16
T h e r e are th ree b ro a d in terp retatio n s o f th e se correlatio n s:
Appendix 3 589
1. Test b ias. I Q tests scores are artificially h i g h for p erson s fro m high-
status b a c k g ro u n d s b e c a u se the tests are b ia se d in fa v o r o f p eo p le
from h igh -statu s h o m e s.
2. Environm ental ad van tage. I Q te n d s to be g e n u in e ly h ig h e r for c h i b
d ren from h igh -statu s h o m e s, b e c a u se they e n jo y a m o re fav orab le
e n v ir o n m e n t for realizing th eir c o g n itiv e ability t h a n d o ch ild ren
from low -status h o m es.
3. G enetic advantage. I Q ten d s to be gen u in ely h ig h e r for c h ild re n
from h ig h -statu s h o m e s b e c a u se they e n jo y a m o re fav o rab le g e
n e tic b a c k g r o u n d ( p a re n ta l S E S is a p ro x y m easu re for p a re n ta l
IQ).
T h e first e x p la n a t i o n is d iscu ssed in A p p e n d i x 5. T h e o th e r two e x
p la n a t i o n s h a v e b e e n d iscussed a t v a riou s p o in ts in the t e x t (p rin cip ally
C h a p t e r 4 s d isc u ssio n o f heritability, C h a p t e r 1 0 s d isc u ssio n o f p a r e n t
ing styles, a n d C h a p t e r 1 7 s d isc u ssio n o f a d o p ti o n ) . T o sum m arize th ose
d iscussions, b e in g b ro u g h t up in a c o n sp icu o u sly h ig h -statu s or low-
status fam ily from birth p ro b a b ly h a s a sign ifica n t effect o n IQ , in
d e p e n d e n t o f the g e n e tic e n d o w m e n t o f th e p aren ts. T h e m a g n itu d e
o f this effect is u n c e rtain . S t u d ie s o f a d o p t i o n suggest t h a t th e av erage
is in th e reg io n o f six I Q p oin ts, g iv e n th e d ifferen ce in th e e n v ir o n
m e n ts p ro v id e d by a d o p tin g a n d n atu ral p aren ts. O u t sid e in te rv e n tio n s
to a u g m e n t th e e n v ir o n m e n t h a v e h a d on ly a n in c o n sis te n t a n d u n
c e rtain effect, a lth o u g h it re m a in s p ossib le th a t larger effects m ig h t be
p ossible for c h ild re n from e x tre m e ly d e p r iv e d e n v iro n m e n t s. In terms
o f th e to p ic o f this a p p e n d ix , th e flexibility o f th e A F Q T score, the
A F Q T w as g iv e n a t ages 1 4 - 2 3 , w h e n th e effect o f s o c i o e c o n o m i c b a c k
g ro u n d o n I Q h a d already p la y ed w h a te v e r in d e p e n d e n t role it m ig h t
h av e.
Y ears o f E d u c atio n a n d the A F Q T Score
F or th e A F Q T as for o th e r I Q tests, scores vary d irectly w ith e d u c a tio n a l

a tt a in m e n t, le a v in g aside for th e m o m e n t th e m a g n it u d e o f rec ip ro ca l
c a u se a n d effect. B u t to w h a t e x t e n t c o u ld we e x p e c t th at, if we m a n
ag ed to k e e p low -sco ring stu d en ts in s c h o o l for a n o th e r year or two, their
A F Q T scores w o u ld h a v e risen app reciab ly?
C h a p t e r 17 laid o u t th e g e n e ra l an sw er fro m a large b o d y o f research:
S y s te m a tic a tte m p ts to raise I Q th ro u g h e d u c a t io n (e x e m p lifie d by
th e V e n e z u e la n e x p e r im e n t a n d th e an alyses o f S A T c o a c h i n g ) c a n
590 Appendix 3
indeed h a v e an effect on the order o f .2 standard d ev iatio n , or three IQ

points. A s far as an y on e c a n tell, there are d im inishin g m argin al b e n e
fits of this k in d o f c o a c h in g (tak in g three in tensive S A T c o a c h in g p ro
gram s in su c c e ssio n will raise a score by less than three tim es the original
in crem en t).
W e m ay explore the issue m ore directly by m akin g use of the other
IQ scores o b tain ed for m em bers of the N L S Y . G i v e n scores that were
o b ta in e d several years earlier th a n the A F Q T score, ro w hat e x te n t do
the in te rv e n in g years o f ed u c atio n appear to hav e elevated the A F Q T ?
U n d e rly in g the d iscussion is a sim ple model:
Earlier I Q ----------------------------------- AFQT

score score
T h e earlier IQ score affects both years o f ed u catio n an d is a m easure of

the sam e th in g that A F Q T measures. M ean w h ile, the years of e d u c a
tion add s o m e th in g (we hypothesize) to the A F Q T score that would not
otherwise h a v e been added.
A c tu a lly testing the m od el m ean s bringing in several c o m p lic a tio n s,
however. T h e elapsed time between the earlier IQ test and the A F Q T
test presum ably affects the relationships. S o does the age o f the su bject
(a subject w ho took the test at age 22 had a m uch different c h a n c e to
add years o f ed ucatio n th an did a subject who took the test at age 18,
for e x a m p le ) . T h e age at w hich the earlier IQ test was tak en is also rel
evant, sin c e IQ test scores are known to b ec o m e m ore stab le at around
the age o f 6. But the m a in p o in t o f the exercise m ay be illustrated
straightforwardly. We will leave the elaboration to our colleagues.
T h e d a ta b a se consists of all N L S Y students who had a n earlier IQ test
score, as rep orted in rhe table on page 596, plus students with valid S ta n -
ford-Binet an d W I S C scores (to o few to report separately). W e report
rhe results for two m odels in the table below, with the A F Q T score as
the d e p e n d e n t variable in both cases. In the first model, the e x p l a n a
tory v a riab les are the earlier IQ score, age at the first test, elap sed years
betw een th e two tests, an d type o f test (entered as a vec to r of dum m y
variables). In rhe secon d m odel, we add years o f ed u c atio n as an in d e
p e n d e n t v ariab le. A n ad d itio n a l year o f ed u c atio n is a sso ciated with a
gain o f 2.3 c e n tile s per year, in line with oth e r analyses o f the effects of
Appendix 3 591
T h e In d e p e n d e n t E ffe c t o f E d u c a tio n o n A F Q T S c o re s
a s In fe rre d fro m E a r lie r I Q T e s ts
Dependent variab le: A F Q T percentile score

Independent Variables Model 1 Model 2
Coefficient Std. E r r o r Coefficient Std. Error
Intercept 12.303 1.653 - 6 .7 8 3 2.443
Earlier IQ
percentile score .787 .016 .753 .015
Elapsed years
between tests -.3 1 6 .166 - 1 .0 0 5 .173
Years ot education 2.280 .221
Type (if tesr (entered
as a vector of nominal
variables, coefficients
not shown.)
No. o f observations 1,408 1,408
R (A d ju s te d ) .659 .681
ed u c a tio n o n I Q . 17 W h a t h a p p e n s if the d e p e n d e n t variable is exp ressed

in standardized scores rather than p e rc e n tile s? In that case (using the
sam e in d e p e n d e n t v a riab les), the in d e p e n d e n t effect o f ed u c atio n is to
increase rhe A F Q T score by .07 standard d e v i a t io n , or the e q u iv a le n t
o f ab ou t o n e I Q p o in t per year also in lin e with other analyses.
We c a u tio n ag a in st interpreting these c o e ffic ie n ts literally across th e
entire e d u c a tio n a l range. W h ereas it m ay b e reaso n able to think a b o u t
I Q g ains for six a d d itio n a l years o f e d u c a t i o n w h e n c o m p a rin g s u b je c ts
w h o had no s c h o o l i n g versus those w h o r e a c h e d sixth grade, or e v e n
c o m p a rin g th ose who drop p ed out in s i x t h grade an d those w h o re
m ain ed th ro ugh h ig h sch ool, in terpreting th ese coefficients b e c o m e s
p ro b lem atic w h en m o v in g in to p o s t - h ig h s c h o o l education.
T h e n e g a t iv e coefficient for elap sed y ears be tw e e n tests in the t a b le
a b o v e is worth m en tio n in g . S u p p o se th at rhe true in d ep en d en t r e l a
tion sh ip b e tw e e n years o f ed u c atio n and A F Q T is negatively a c c e l e r
ate d thar is, the c au sal im p o rta n c e o f the elem entary grad es in
d e v e lo p in g a p e r s o n s I Q is greater th an th e c a u sa l role of, say, g r a d u a te
school. If so, th e n rhe m ore years of s e p a r a t io n b etw een tests, the lo w e r
would be the true v alue of the d e p e n d e n t v a ria b le , A F Q T , c o m p a r e d to
592 Appendix 3
th e p r e d ic te d v a lu e in a linear regression, b e c a u se p e o p le with m a n y

years o f s e p a ra t io n b e tw e e n tests in th e sa m p le are, o n av erage, g e ttin g
less in c r e m e n ta l b e n e fit o f years o f e d u c a t io n t h a n th e sa m p le w ith just
a few years o f sep aration . T h e o b se rv e d results are c o n s is te n t w ith this
hyp oth esis.
Appendix 4
Regression Analyses from Part II
T h i s a p p e n d ix p resen ts th e log istic regressions for th e figures in C h a p -

ters 5 th ro u g h 12. In th e tex t, th e figures are b a se d o n regressions th a t
use th e entire w h ite sa m p le in th e N L S Y a n d are c a lc u la t e d u sin g sam-
p ie weights. W e use the en tire sa m p le a n d w eigh ts to ta k e a d v a n t a g e o f
th e N L S Y s su p p le m e n ta l sa m p le o f lo w -in c o m e w hites; in o u r j u d g
m e n t, d o in g so p ro v id es the b e s t a v a ila b le e stim ates o f th e relatio n sh ip s
we discuss. B u t in terp retin g sta n d a rd errors a n d statistica l sig n ifica n c e
is greatly c o m p lic a te d w h e n u sin g sa m p le weights. In the regression re
sults t h a t follow, we therefore restrict th e analyses to th e n a t io n a lly re p
re se n ta tiv e cro ss-sectio n al sa m p le o f whites. T h i s p ro c e d u re n o t only
en a b le s direc t in te rp re tatio n o f th e sta n d a rd errors b u t also p ro v id e s the
raw m a te ria l for in terested readers to see h o w m u c h d ifferen ce there is
b e tw e e n th e results from th e entire w h ite sa m p le a n d th e cro ss-sectio n al
sa m p le ( w h ic h you m ay d o by c o m p u ti n g th e p rob a b ilities for th e cross-
s e c tio n a l sa m p le a n d c o m p a r in g t h e m to th e o n e s s h o w n in th e t e x t fig
ures). W e h a v e d o n e so o u rselves a n d c a n rep ort t h a t th e differen ces are
so sm a ll t h a t they are se ld o m visually evid en t.
B y w h ites, we m e a n all N L S Y su b jec ts w h o were id entified as n o n
black, n o n - H is p a n i c in th e N L S Y s rac ia l/e th n ic c o h o r t sc reen in g
(v a ria b le R 2 1 4 7 , in th e N L S Y s d o c u m e n t a t i o n ) , d e le tin g th o se w h o
id en tified th e m se lv e s as b e in g o f A m e r i c a n In d ia n , A s i a n , o r P a cific d e
sc e n t in th e first or on ly r a c ia l/e th n ic o rig in item ( R 9 6 ) .
In th e text, we d o n o t refer to th e u su al m e asu re o f g o o d n e ss o f fit
for m u ltip le regressions, R 2, b u t they are p r e se n te d here for th e cross-
s e c tio n a l analyses. A s th e ratio o f th e e x p la in e d su m o f squ ares to the
to t a l su m o f squares, R 2 is in this in sta n c e th e square o f th e c o rre la tio n
b e tw e e n th e set o f in d e p e n d e n t v a riab les a n d th e d e p e n d e n t va riab le
exp re sse d as th e l o g a rith m o f th e o d d s ratio. I n a sm u c h as th e v a lu es o f
R 2 ran g e widely in the tab les to follow, so m e m e n t io n o f t h e m is w ar
ran ted.
594 Appendix 4
T h e size o f R1 tells so m eth in g ahout the strength o f rhe logistic re-

larionship betw een the d e p e n d e n t variable and the set of in d ep en d en t
variables, but it also d epends o n the com p o sitio n of the sam p le, as do
correlation coefficients in general. Even a n in herently strong re la tio n
ship c an result in low values o f R~ if the data points are h u n ch ed in
various ways, and relatively noisy relationships c an result in high v a l
ues if the sam ple includes disproportion ate num bers of outliers. For e x
am ple, one o f the sm allest R 2 in the following analyses, only 0.1 7 , is
for white m en out of the labor force for four weeks or m ore in 1989.
A p a rt from the distributional properties o f the data that p rod u ce this
low R~, a rough com m o n -sen se m eaning to keep in m ind is th at the
vast m ajority of N L S Y white m en were in the labor force e v e n though
they had low IQs or deprived so c io ec o n o m ic backgrounds. Bur the p a
ram eter for z A F Q T in that sam e equation is significant heyond the .001
level and large enough to m ake a big difference in the probability that
a white m ale would be out of the labor force. T h is illustrates why we
therefore consider the regression coefficients them selves (an d rheir a s
sociated p values) to suit our analytic purposes better th a n R , an d that
is why those are the ones we relied on in the text.
T h e standard indep end ent variables, described in A p p e n d i x 2, are
z A F Q T 8 9 , the 1989 scoring o f the A F Q T ; zS E S , the so c io e c o n o m ic
background of the N L S Y subjects; and zAge, based o n the age of the
N L S Y subjects as o f D ec em b er 31, 1990. A ll are expressed as standard
scores with a m ean o f 0 and a standard d eviatio n of 1.
A ll d epen den t variables are binary. T h e coefficients are p aram eter
estim ates when the d ep e n d en t variable = yes. T h e linear logistic
model has the form
logit(p) = log(p/(l-p)) = a + (3'x
where a is the intercept p aram eter and (3 is the vector of slope p a r a
meters for a vector of in dep end ent variables x. T ak e as an e x a m p le the
first set ot results presented subsequently, in volving poverty. S u p
pose you w ant to know the probability that a person is u nder the poverty
line in 1989 (Poverty = Yes ), stipulating that the person in q u estio n
has an IQ ( z A F Q T ) 1.5 stan dard deviatio ns below the m e an , s o c i o e c o
n o m ic background (z S E S ) .3 stan dard d eviatio n a b o v e the m ean , and
is exactly of m ean age. U s i n g the p aram eters in the basic analysis for
poverty rounded to four d ec im al places, an d a c o m p u ta tio n a lly c o n v e
n ien t re-expression o f p, rhe probability is com pu ted as follows:
Appendix 4 595
logit(f>) - - 2 .6 4 8 7 + ( - . 8 V 7 6 x - l . 5) + (-.3301 x. 3) + ( - . 0 2 3 8 x 0 ) = - 1 . 4 9 1 3
p = e '- w '/( 1+e Mu" )
p = .1837
T h e p robability we set out to c o m p u te is 18.37 percent.

T h e H ig h S c h o o l S a m p l e c on sists o f th ose w h o received a h i g h
sch ool d ip lo m a through the n o rm al route ( n o t a G E D ) and rep orted e x -
actly tw elve years o f ed u c a tio n as o f the 19 90 interview.
T h e C o l l e g e S a m p l e consists of those w ho c o m p le te d a b a c h e l o r s
degree an d reported exactly sixteen years o f e d u c a tio n as o f the 1 9 9 0 in-
terview.
T h e softw are used for the analyses is J M P V ersion 3, by S A S Insti-
tute Inc. J M P treats n o m in al in d e p e n d e n t variables differently Irom
oth e r m ajo r softw are p ackages such as S A S an d S P S S . In those p a c k
ages, a p ara m e te r for a n o m in al v ariab le rep resents the differen ce b e
tw een rhat level of the n o m in a l variab le and an om itted level s e r v i n g
as a reference group. In JMP, a p aram eter rep resents the differen ce o f a
given level from the average o v e r all levels of the n o m in al variable. T h e
implied p ara m e te r for the re m a in in g level is the n eg ative sum o f t h e
oth e r levels (i.e., the p aram eters sum to zero ov er all the effect l e v e ls).
For e x am p le, suppose R a c e were b ein g used as a n o m in al variable, w ith
c ategories o f B lac k , L atin o, an d W h ite . In the J M P printout, rhe c o e f
ficients would a p p e a r as
Race[Black-White] x,
Race[L;mno-White] x.
T h e order is d eterm in ed by the a lp h a b e tic a l order o f the c a te g o r ie s.
In this case, the coefficient x, applies to blacks, x, to L atin o s. T h e
im plied W h i t e c oefficient is - l * ( x , + x 2). In the case o f a b in a ry
in d ep en d en t v ariab le such as S e x , rhe printout would show a s in g le
line
S e x (F e m a le -M a le ] x,
which ap p lies to females. T h e c oefficient for M a le equals - x r
C H A P T E R 5: P O V E R T Y
IM PE N D E N T V A R IA B LE : U n d e r the official p overty line in 1989.

SA M P LE R E S T R IC T IO N S : E x c lu d es th ose w h o reported they were o u t o f
the labor force b ecause they were in sc h o o l in eith er the 1989 or 1 9 9 0
interviews.
596 Appendix 4
B asic A n a ly sis:
W h o le - M o d e l Test
Source DF -LogL ik elihoo d C h iS q u are Im h > C h i S q
Model 3 9 0.94 00 9 181.8802 0 .0 0 0 0 0 0
Error 3363 7 84.40179
C Total 3366 8 75.34188
RSquare (U ) 0.1039
Observations 3 367
P a r a m e t e r E s t im a t e s
Term Estimate Std Error C hiSq uare P r o h > C h iS q
Intercept - 2 .6 4 8 7 2 8 8 0.0768803 1187 0.0 0 0 0
zA F Q T 8 9 - 0 .8 3 7 6 3 3 8 0.0935061 80.25 0 .0 0 0 0
zSES - 0 .3 3 0 0 7 2 0 0 .0 90 099 6 13.42 0.00 0 2
zAge -0 .0 2 3 8 3 7 5 0.0723735 0.11 0.7 4 1 9
The High School Sam ple:

W h o l e - M o d e l T e st
Source DF -LogL ik elihoo d C hiSq uare Proh>C hiSq
Model 3 22.01811 44.03622 0.000000
Error 1232 325.26939
C Total 1235 347.28750
RSquare (U ) 0.06 54
Observations 12 36
Term Estimate Std Error C h iS q u are P r o h > C h iS q
Intercept - 2 .7 2 3 7 7 7 5 0 .1 29 02 86 445.63 0 .0 0 0 0
zAFQT89 - 0 .8 2 6 7 2 9 3 0 .1 62 73 58 25.81 0 .0 0 0 0
zSES -0 .3 6 1 9 7 0 3 0.1 499855 5.82 0 .0 1 5 8
zAge + 0.10 49 22 7 0.10 94 60 3 0.92 0.3 378
T h e C ollege S am p le : O m i t t e d . O n l y six p e r s o n s in t h e c r o s s - s e c t i o n a l
C o l l e g e S a m p l e were in p overty.
F or M others M arried as o f the 1 9 8 9 Interview :

Source DF -LogL ik elihoo d C h iS q u are Proh>C 'h iS q
Model 3 17.14553 34.29106 0.000000
Error 786 179.84999
C Total 789 196.99552
RSquare (U ) 0.0870
Observations 790
Appendix 4 597
P a ram eter E s t i m a t e s
Term Estimate S t d Error C h iSq u are P r o b > C h iS q
Intercept - 2 .7 7 3 2 8 1 7 0 .1 6 4 6 0 2 3 2 8 3 .8 7 0 .0 0 0 0
zAFQT89 - 0 .6 4 3 7 7 9 7 0 .2 1 4 0 1 3 2 9.0 5 0.0 02 6
:SES -0.39 1 0 62 9 0 .2 0 2 0 3 1 7 3.75 0.0 52 9
:A g e -0 .3 3 3 8 6 7 4 0 .1 5 8 7 6 0 5 4.4 2 0.0355
For Mothers Who Were Separated, D ivorced, or N e v e r Married as o f the

1989 Interview:
W h o l e - M o d e l T est
Source DF - L o g L ik e l i h o o d C h iS q u a r e P r o b > C h iS q
Model 5 8 .0 7 1 1 4 16 .1 42 28 0.0 0 1 0 6 0
Error 21 1 1 35.7 76 58
C Total 214 143.84772
RSquare (U ) 0.0561
O bservations 215
Pa ram eter E s t i m a t e s
Term Estimate S td Error C h iS q u a r e P rob>C h LSq
Intercept - 0 .7 4 4 9 1 3 2 0 .1 7 1 3 7 9 4 18.89 0.0000
zAFQ T89 - 0 .6 7 2 2 1 2 1 0 .2 2 7 7 0 1 9 8 .7 2 0.0032
zSES - 0 .1 5 9 7 4 6 1 0 .1 9 5 2 7 0 9 0 .6 7 0.4133
zAge - 0 .1 5 2 4 3 1 5 0 .1 5 3 0 9 8 6 0 .9 9 0 .3 19 4
C H A P T E R 6: S C H O O L I N G
DHI-LNOHNT VARIABLE: P e rm an e n tly d r o p p e d o u t o f h igh school.

SAM ILL RESTRICTIONS: E x c lu d es th ose w h o o b t a i n e d a G E D .
Basic A nalysis:
W h o le - M o d e l T est
Source DF - L o g L ik e l i h o o d C h iS q u a r e P ro b > C h iSq
Model 3 3 9 3 .8 9 7 8 7 8 7 .7 9 5 6 0.000000
Error 3568 7 7 9 .9 90 4
C Total 3571 1 173.8882
RSquare (U ) 0 .3 3 5 5
O b servations 35 72
P a ram eter E s t i m a t e s
Term Estimate S td Error C h iS q u a r e P rob>C h iSq
1ntercept - 2 .8 5 3 2 2 6 0 6 0 .0 9 3 9 6 5 9 922.00 0.0000
zAFQT89 -1.7 22 9 5 93 4 0 .1 0 2 8 1 4 5 28 0 .8 3 0.0000
zSES -0.6 47 7 6 23 2 0 .0 8 9 6 6 5 8 5 2 .1 9 0.0000
zAge + 0 .0 5 6 9 5 6 4 0 0 .0 6 8 8 2 8 6 0.68 0 .4 0 7 9
598 Appendix 4
Basic A nalysis, Adding an Interaction Term for z A F Q T and z S E S :

Source DF -LogLikelihood ChiSquare P rob>C hiSq
Model 4 399.9876 799.9751 0.000000
Error 3567 773.9006
C Total 3571 1173.8882
RSquare (U ) 0.3407
Observations 3572
P a ra m e te r E stim a tes
Term Estimate Std Error ChiSquare Prob>C hiSq
Intercept -2.9143231 0.1029462 801.41 0.0000
zAFQ T89 -1.89376 42 0.1188518 253.89 0.0000
zSES -0 .94 02389 0.1250634 56.52 0.0000
zAge +0.0522667 0.0682755 0.59 0.4440
z A F Q T 8 9 *zS E S -0 .4133 224 0.1187879 12.11 0.0005
D E P E N D E N T V A R IA B LE : R e c e iv e d a G E D in stead o f a h i g h s c h o o l d ip lom a .
SA M P L E R E S T R IC T IO N S : E x c lu d e s th ose w h o o b ta in e d n e ith e r a h ig h
sc h o o l d ip lo m a n o r a G E D .
B asic A n alysis:
Source DF -LogLikelihood ChiSquare Prob>ChiSq
Model 3 72.06475 144.1295 0.000000
Error 3490 915.28145
C Total 3493 987.34620
RSquare (U) 0.0730
Observations 3494
P a ra m e te r E stim a te s
Term Estimate S td Error ChiSquare P rob>C hiSq
Intercept -2.3548461 0.0653867 1297 0.0000
zA FQ T89 -0.4325254 0.0851185 25.82 0.0000
zSES -0.6082151 0.0837515 52.74 0.0000
zAge -0.0416441 0.0662445 0.40 0.5296
D E P E N D E N T V A R IA B L E : R e c e iv e d a b a c h e l o r s degree.
SA M P L E R E S T R IC T IO N S : E x c lu d e s th o se w h o h a d less t h a n a b a c h e l o r s de-
gree a n d were in p o stse c o n d a ry e d u c a tio n iin eith er th e 1989 or 1990
interview.
Basic A n aly sis:

Model 3 807.9072 1615.814 0.000000
Error 3817 1364.3417
C Total 3820 2172.2489
RSquare (U) 0.3719
Observations 3821
Appendix 4 599
P a ra m e te r E stim a tes
Term Estimate S td Error ChiSquare Prob>C hiSq
Intercept -2.41992 250 0.0786991 945.50 0.0000
zA FQ T89 +1.80771403 0.0795537 516.34 0.0000
zSES + 1.04818417 0.0690372 230.52 0.0000
zAge -0.29777760 0.0516373 33.25 0.0000
C H A P T E R 7: U N E M P L O Y M E N T , I D L E N E S S , A N D I N J U R Y
D E P E N D E N T V A R IA B L E : O u t o f the lab or force for four w eeks or m o re in

1989.
SA M P L E R E S T R IC T IO N S : C i v i l i a n m ales w h o d id n o t re sp o n d u n a b le to
w o rk or in s c h o o l to th e q u e stio n o n lab or force p a r tic ip a tio n in
th e 1 9 8 9 or 1 9 9 0 interview.
B asic A n alysis:
Model 3 9.44293 18.88586 0.000289
Error 1682 548.25144
C Total 1685 557.69437
RSquare (U ) 0.0169
Observations 1686
Term Estimate Std Error ChiSquare P rob>C hiSq
Intercept -2.20264085 0.0868001 643.94 0.0000
zA FQ T89 -0.36246881 0.0992802 13.33 0.0003
zSES +0.21788340 0.1075722 4.10 0.0428
zAge -0.12815393 0.0864018 2.20 0.1380

Source DF -LogLikelihood ChiSquare Prob>C hiSq
Model 3 4.45831 8.916625 0.030420
Error 617 156.98046
C Total 620 161.43878
RSquare (U ) 0.0276
Observations 621
Term Estimate Std Error ChiSquare P ro b>C h iSq
Intercept -2.6978 0012 0.1767563 232.95 0.0000
zAFQ T89 -0.42151253 0.2264362 3.47 0.0627
zSES +0.56489480 0.230053 6.03 0.0141
zAge - 0.14 556950 0.1672623 0.76 0.3841
600 Appendix 4
The C ollege Sam ple:

Model 3 6.794337 13.58867 0.003522
Error 264 56.536860
C T o ral 267 63.331 196
RSquare (U) 0.1073
Observations 268
Parameter Estim ates
Term Estimate Std Error ChiSquare Prob>ChiSq
Intercept -3.12957075 0.6081769 26.48 0.0000
zA FQ T89 -0.84324247 0.4526768 3.47 0.0625
zSES +0.94514750 0.3875388 5.95 0.0147
zAge -0.46061574 0.299044 2.37 0.1235
D E P EN D E N T V A RIA BLE: U n em p lo y ed for four weeks or m ore in 1989.

SA M P LE R E S T R IC T IO N S : C iv ilia n m ales w ho did nor respond unah le t o
w ork or in sc h o o l to the qu estion o n labor force p a rtic ip a tio n in
the 1989 or 1990 interview and were in the labor foroe th ro ugh o u t
1989.
Basic A rialysis:
Model 3 11.30841 22.61682 0.000049
Error 1393 348.7151 1
C T o ral 1396 360.02353
RSquare (U) 0.0314
Observations 1397
Param eter Estimates
Term Estimate Std Error ChiSquare P rob>C hiSq
Intercept -2.53577016 0.1076083 555.30 0.0000
zA FQ T89 -0.49486463 0.1298967 14.51 0.0001
zSES -0.02534849 0.1383889 0.03 0.8547
zAge -0.02181428 0.1108396 0.04 0.8440
The High School Sample

W h o l e - M o d e l Test
Model 3 1.86533 3.730657 0.292056
Error 533 140.49123
C Total 536 142.35656
RSquare (IJ) 0.0131
Observations 537
Appendix 4 601
P aram eter E stim ate s

Term Estim ate Std Error C h iSq u are P r o b > C h iS q
In te rc e p t - 2 .5 9 8 7 8 1 8 7 0 .1 7 6 6 1 4 6 216.51 0.0000
zA FQ T 89 - 0 .3 9 3 5 3 1 4 0 0 .2 3 6 8 7 5 2 2 .7 6 0.0966
zSES + 0 .1 3 9 5 1 9 4 0 0.2353179 0 .3 5 0.5532
zAge -0.1 05 1 0 56 6 0 .1 7 6 2 4 7 1 0 .3 6 0.5509
The College Sam ple:

Source OF - L o g L ik e l i h o o d C h iSq u are Pi< >h>C hiSq
Model 3 3.5 7 00 96 7 .1 4 0 1 9 3 0.067561
Error 2 24 4 0 .5 0 6 1 3 3
C Total 227 4 4 .0 7 6 2 3 0
RSquare (U ) 0.0 8 1 0
O b se rva tion s 228
T erm Estim ate S td Error C h iSq u are P r o b > C h iS q
In te rce p t - 3 .1 6 8 6 8 8 6 0 .7 2 7 6 7 3 5 18 .96 0.0000
:A F Q T 8 9 -0 .9 1 9 6 8 8 6 0 .5 6 4 1 6 3 5 2.66 0.1031
zSF.S + 1.0 039255 0 .5 0 1 5 7 1 7 4.01 0.0453
zA ge + 0 .2 9 4 1 9 6 5 0 .3 3 1 1 1 7 4 0 .7 9 0.3743
C H A P T E R 8 : FA M ILY M A T T E R S
D E PEN D EN T V A R IA B LE : E v e r m a r r ie d b e f o r e t h e a ^ e o f 30.
SA M P LE R E S T R IC T IO N S : P e r s o n s w h o t u r n e d t h i r t y hy t h e 1 9 9 0 in t e r v ie w .
Basic A nalysis:
Source DF - L o g L ik e l i h o o d C h iSq u are Prob>C h iSq
M odel 3 6 .4 3 3 4 5 1 2 .8 6 6 9 0.0 04 93 3
Error 1630 8 3 9 .7 6 7 4 7
C Total 1633 8 4 6 .2 0 0 9 2
RSquare (U ) 0.0076
O b servations 1634
T erm Estim ate Std Error C h iSq u are P rob>C h iSq
In te rc e p t + 1.19841361 0.128902 8 6 .4 4 0.0000
zA FQ T 89 -0.047 35 87 0.0757854 0 .3 9 0 .5 3 2 0
zSES - 0 .1 9 0 5 5 2 6 0 .0 7 8 6 3 0 7 5.87 0.0 15 4
zA ge + 0 .2 0 4 0 3 3 7 9 0 .1 2 9 0 5 4 5 2.50 0.1 13 9
602 Appendix 4
T he High School Sample:

S o u rc e DF -LogL ik elihoo d C hiSq uare P r o b > C h iS q
M odel 3 6.92871 13.857 0 .0 0 3 1 0 6
Error 601 25 9.40296
C Total 604 266.33168
RSquare (U ) 0.0260
Observations 605
Term Estimate Std Error C hiSq uare P r o b > C h iS q
Intercept + 1.41494853 0.2342703 36.48 0.0 0 0 0
zA FQ T89 + 0.5 1424443 0.1 598383 10.35 0.0013
zSES - 0 .1 1 2 8 8 4 5 0 .1 58 27 99 .51 0.4757
zAge +0 .3 68 27 16 9 0.2422543 2.31 0.1285

S o u rc e DF -LogL ik elih oo d C hiSq uare P r o h > C h iS q
Model 3 0.17181 0.343616 0.9 5 1 6 2 7
Error 233 145.35748
C To tal 236 145.52929
RSquare (U ) 0.0012
Observations 2 37
I a r a m e t e r E s t im a t e s
Term Estimate Std Error C h iS q u are P rob> ( , hiSq
Intercept + 0.7 1372375 0.3 94 61 74 3.27 0.0705
zAFQ T89 +0.0501 3859 0.2 23 75 28 0.05 0.8227
zSES +0 .0968295 0.183 3680 0.28 0.5975
zAge - 0 .0 1 7 7 8 0 7 0.2950863 0.00 0 .9 5 2 0
D E P E N D E N T V A R IA B LE: D i v o r c e d w i t h i n t h e first five years of m a r r ia g e .
S A M P L E R E S T R IC T IO N S : P e r s o n s m a r r ie d prio r t o J a n u a r y 1, 1 9 86 ,
B asic A n alysis, Adding Dace of First Marriage (M a r l)a c e l):

S o u rce L)F -LogL ik elihoo d C h iS q u a re Proh>C hiSq
Model 4 21.8881 4 3 .7 76 26 0 .0 0 0 0 0 0
Error 2026 9 91.3719
C T o tal 2030 101 3.2600
RSquare (U ) 0.0216
Observations 2031
P aram eter E stim ates
Term Estimate Std Error C h iS q u a re P r u h > C h iS q
Intercept + 5.70860970 1.9858067 8.26 0.0 0 4 0
zA F Q T '89 - 0 .3 5 7 3 4 0 0 9 0 .0 7 8 1 2 5 8 20.92 0 .0 0 0 0
Appendix 4 60 3
:SE S +0.22195410 0 .0 7 8 761 2 7.9 4 0.0048

Age - 0 .1 7 7 6 6 9 4 4 0 .0 7 4 1 4 7 8 5.74 0 .0 1 6 6
M argate 1 - 0 .0 8 6 7 7 3 3 5 0.024311 3 12.74 0 .0 0 0 4
The High School Sam ple, A dding D ate oj F irst M arriage (M arD ate I ):
Sou re o DF LogLikelihood C h iS q u a r e Proh>C hiSq
M odel 4 3.54304 7.0 86 07 3 0.131409
Error 870 42 8.7 064 5
C Total 87 4 4 32 .2 4 ^ 4 7
RSquare (U ) 0 .008 2
Param eter E stim ate s
1 erm Estimate Std Error C'hi Square P roh>C hiSq
Intercept + 5.4 45 1 3 9 5 3.1286887 3.03 0 .0 8 1 8
:A FQ T 89 - 0 .0 3 7 9 1 7 1 0 .1 3 4 8 1 2 9 0 .08 0 .7 7 8 5
zSES + 0 .2 2 0 6 9 2 5 0.1 28 82 22 2.93 0 .0 8 6 7
-Age - 0 .1 0 7 8 0 5 7 0 .1 14 67 73 0.88 0 .3 4 7 2
M arD ate 1 - 0 .0 8 3 9 9 5 0 0 .0 3 8 3 2 3 6 4 .8 0 0.0284
The College Sam ple, Adding Date of First M a n ia g e (M arD ate l ):

W h o le -M o d e l T est
Source DF -L o g L ik e lih o o d C h iS q u a r e Proh>C hiSq
Model 4 5 .548154 11.09631 0 .0 2 5 5 0 3
Error 204 48 .41 4 4 6 8
C: Total 208 53.962623
R S q uare ( U ) 0 .1 0 2 8
O b se rv a tio n s 209
Term Estim ate Std Error C h i S q u a r e P r o b > C h iS q
Intercept + 3 2 .3 9 2 8 7 5 1 3.508886 5.75 0.0165
:A FQ T 89 - 0 .7 5 6 1 9 3 6 7 0 .4 5 0 2 1 8 2 2.82 0 .0 9 3 0
:S E S -0.073 54619 0 .3 5 8 8 8 1 6 0 .0 4 0 .8 3 7 6
zAge - 0 .5 5 8 7 5 4 2 4 0.404691 1 1.91 0 .1674
M arD ate I - 0 .4 1 1 1 3 7 1 0 0.1 629791 6 .3 6 0 .0 1 1 6
Basic analysis, Adding Parental Living A rrangem ents at Age 14 (A d u lt1 4 ):
Source DF -L ogL ik elih oo d C h iS q u a r e P m h >C h iSq
Model 6 16.7457 3 3 .4 9 1 3 6 0 .0 0 0 0 0 8
Error 2022 994.6771
C Total 2028 1011.4228
R S q u a re ( U ) 0 .0 1 6 6
604 Appendix 4

Term Estimate Std Error C hiSquare P rob >( ,'hiSq
Intercept - 1 .2 9 5 2 6 5 0 0 .1 06 61 75 147.59 0 .0 0 0 0
7.A FQT89 - 0 .3 9 2 5 5 8 0 0 .0 77 42 09 25.71 0 .0 0 0 0
zSES +0 .1 91 04 25 0.0783345 5.95 0.0147
zAge - 0 .0 2 7 8 0 8 6 0 .0617722 0.2 0 0 .6 5 2 6
A d u ltH
(2 B io - U n m a r M o m ] - 0 .1 4 7 2 6 6 2 0 .117616 1.57 0.2105
A d u ltH
[ B io /S t e p 'U n m a rM o m ] + 0 .0 6 21 91 8 0.1601525 0.15 0.6 97 8
A d u ltH
[O th er-U n m arM o m ] - 0 .0 8 7 2 0 2 4 0 .2 553089 0.12 0.7 32 7
D E P E N D E N T V A RIA BLE: First birth out o f wedlock.

S A M P L E R E ST R .K 'T IO N S: W o m en with at least o n e child.
B asic A n aly sis:

Model 3 39.86862 79.73723 0.000000
Error 1217 46 1.9 061 8
C Total 1220 50 1.77480
RSquare (U ) 0.0795
Observations 1221
Term Estimate Std Error C h iS q u are P r o b > C h iS q
Intercept -1 .9 4 3 2 3 2 0 0.0 938185 429.01 0.0000
zAFQ T89 -0 .6 5 3 7 9 6 0 0 .1 23 94 89 27.82 0.0000
zSES -0 .3 0 5 2 5 9 7 0 .1 18 98 78 6.58 0.0103
zAge -0 .2 4 0 5 2 4 6 0 .0 90 25 16 7.10 0.0077
T he High School Sample:

S o u rc e DF -L ogL ik elih oo d C h iS q u a re P r o b > C h iS q
M o de l 3 15.09449 3 0.18898 0.000001
Error 512 187.89956
C Total 515 202.99405
RSquare (U ) 0.0744
Observations 516
Term Esrimate Std Error C h iSq u are P r o b > C h iS q
In tercept - 2 .1 8 9 0 3 5 4 0.1 65 86 02 174.19 0.0000
zA FQ T89 -0 .7 8 4 6 8 9 5 0 .2 1 4 2 3 7 8 13.42 0.0 00 2
zSES - 0 .2 4 2 8 7 2 7 0.21 6 5 9 2 7 1.26 0.2621
z Age - 0 .4 1 4 5 0 6 6 0.1447961 8.20 0.0042
Appendix 4 605

Source ['IF -L ogL ik elih oo d C h iSq u are P r o h > C h iS q
Model 3 1 .1 2 9 9 3 4 0 2 .2 5 9 8 6 8 0 .520 2 53
Error 112 4.619.3 334
C Total 115 5.7492674
RSquare (U ) 0.1965
O bservations 116
Term Estim ate S t d Error C h iSq u are P r o b > C h iS q
Intercept - 6 .3 7 6 8 5 2 4 0 3.9705049 2.5 8 0 .108 3
zAFQT89 -0.3 16 4 4 57 0 1 .9 8 4 4 2 2 5 0 .0 3 0.87.33
zSES -0.7 26 0 8 39 0 1.5248314 0.2 3 0.6 3 4 0
zAf-e + 2 .5 8 2 1 4 7 9 3 2.8 4 2 3709 0.8 3 0 .3 63 6
Basic analysis Adding Living A rran gem en ts with A dults at Age 14

(A dult 14 ):
S ource DF -L o gL ik elih o o d C h iSq u are P r o b > C h iS q
Model 6 4 6 .6 2 3 8 9 9 3 .2 4 7 7 7 0.000000
Error 1214 4 5 5 .1 5 0 9 1
C Total 1220 5 0 1 .7 7 4 8 0
R S q u a r e (U ) 0 .0 9 2 9
O bservations 1221
Term Estimate S t d Error C 'hiSquare Prob>L'hiSq
Intercept -1.8260275 0.1541482 140.33 0.0 0 0 0
zAFQ T89 -0 .6620720 0 .1 2 5 9 9 0 3 27.61 0 .0 0 0 0
zSES -0.2 4 6 0 3 3 6 0 .1 2 2 1 7 7 1 4.0 6 0 .0 44 0
zAê -0 .2 1 0 9 2 6 8 0.0909302 5.38 0 .0 20 4
A d u ltH
[2 Rio-U nm arM om ] -0 .2 8 1 6 5 4 5 0 .16.34249 2.97 0 .0 84 8
A d u ltH
[Bio/Step-U nm arM om ] + 0 .2 9 2 8 5 0 7 0.206926 2.00 0.1 5 7 0
A d u ltH
[O ther-U nm arM om ] -0 .4991684 0 .3 5 9 3 2 6 1 1.93 0 .1 64 8
Basic analysis, A dding Presence o f B io b g ic a l Parents at A ge 14 ( I 4 B io ) :

S ou rce DF -L o^Likelih oo d C h iS q u are P r o b > C h iS q
Model 6 4 7 .5 6 3 9 1 9 5 .1 2 7 8 3 0 .00 0 0 0 0
Error 1214 4 5 4 .2 1 0 8 8
C Total 1220 5 0 1 .7 7 4 8 0
RSquare (U ) 0 .0 9 4 8
O bservations 1221
606 Appendix 4
T erm Estimate Std Error C hiSq uare P m h>C hiSq
In tercept - 2 .0 1 9 9 1 2 3 0 .2037839 98.25 0.0 0 0 0
zA FQ T89 - 0 .6 5 6 7 7 4 6 0.1250691 27.58 0.0 0 0 0
zSES - 0 .2 4 7 9 7 9 4 0 .1214895 4.17 0.0412
z A ge - 0 .2 0 3 7 1 7 8 0 .0 91 02 96 5.01 0.0252
14 B io
[M om O nly-PopO nly] +0.65 28 65 2 0.2 233927 8.54 0.0035
1 4 B io
[M om /P op'Pop O nly ]- 0 .0 8 6 2 2 0 8 0.2102 3 35 0.17 0.6817
14Bio[Neither-PopOnly] - 0 .2 3 7 1 2 3 1 0 .4150982 0.33 0.56 78
B asic A nalysis, Adding Poverty Status in the C alendar Year Prior 10 Binh
(P re B irth P o v ):
W h o le - M o d e I Test
Source DF -L ogL ik elih oo d C hiSq uare P ro b > ( ,hiSq
M odel 4 63 .21118 126.4224 0 .0 0 0 0 0 0
Error 956 292.73717
C Total 960 355.94835
RSquare (U ) 0.1776
Observations 961
P a r a m e t e r E s t im a t e ;
T erm Estimate Std Error C h iS q u a re P r o h > C h iS q
Intercept -1 .6 7 8 5 7 4 3 0 .1 46 0 0 1 8 132.18 0.0000
zA FQ T89 - 0 .6 3 0 0 0 4 9 0 .1665952 14.30 0.0002
zSES -0 .1 8 2 8 8 7 7 0 .1513393 1.46 0.2 26 9
zA ge - 0 .4 7 5 9 3 9 3 0.127232 13.99 0.0002
PreBirthP ov
[No-Yes] - 0 .8 1 7 8 6 8 4 0 .1 26 6 4 9 6 41.70 0 .0 0 0 0
B a sic A nalysis, Restricted to W om en Below the Poverty Line in the C alen

d a r Year Prior to Binh:
Source DF -LogL ik elihoo d C hiSq uare P r o b > C h iS q
M odel 3 3.005867 6.011735 0.111041
Error 95 65 .00 3 3 2 9
C Total 98 68 .00 9 1 9 6
RSquare (U ) 0.0442
Observations 99
Term Estimate S td Error C h iS q u are P r o h > C h iS q
Intercept - 0 .6 5 3 0 6 3 9 0 0 .2 9 01 96 4 5.06 0.0244
zAFQ T89 - 0 .7 6 8 8 7 4 1 0 0 .3 4 5 3 8 8 9 4.96 0.0 26 0
zSES +0 .17 993445 0 .2 58 91 66 0.48 0.4871
zA ge -0.13622880 0 .2 2 89 76 4 0.35 0.5 51 9
Appendix 4 607
C H A P T E R 9: W E L F A R E D E P E N D E N C Y
D EPEN D EN T V A R IA B LE : O n w elfare by th e first c a l e n d a r year after the birth

of the child.
SA M P LE R E S T R IC T IO N S : W o m e n w ith at least o n e child born p rio r to Jan-
uary 1, 1989.
Basic A nalysis, A dding Poverty S ta tu s in the Year Prior to Birth (PreBirth-

Pov) and M arital Statu s a t the Tim e of the Birth (B S ta tu s):
Source DF L o g L i k e l ih o o d C h iS q u a r e P r o b > C h iS q
Model 5 1 0 0 .3 7 9 9 3 20 0.75 99 0 .0 0 0 0 0 0
Error 833 2 2 1 .7 5 8 4 4
C Toral 83 8 322 .13 83 7
RSquare (U ) 0.3 1 1 6
(Observations 839
Term Estimate S t d Error C h iS q u a r e Proh>C hiSq
Intercept -1 .03 5 9 40 5 5 0 .1 7 1 3 3 2 4 36.56 0 .0 0 0 0
zAFQT'89 -0 .5 7 9 7 2 8 4 4 0 .1 8 9 2 5 4 8 9 .3 8 0 .0 0 2 2
zSES - 0 .0 6 1 3 0 1 3 7 0 .1 7 4 6 7 8 2 0 .1 2 0 .7 2 5 6
zAge -0 .1 1 2 6 9 9 4 6 0 .1 4 5 7 3 1 3 0 .6 0 0 .4 3 9 3
PreBirthPov
[No-Yes] -0.89960808 0.1446041 38.70 0 .0000
BStatus
|lllegit-Legit] + 1 .0 52 58 56 0 0 .1 3 5 2 0 0 6 60.61 0 .0 0 0 0
The High School Sam ple, A dd in g Poverty S ta tu s in the Year Prior to Birth
(PreBirthPov) and M arital S tatu s at the Tim e o f the Birth (B S ta tu s):
Source DF -L o gL ik elih o o d C h iS q u a r e Proh>C hiSq
Model 5 29 .28 3 5 4 58.56707 0 .0 0 0 0 0 0
Error 384 1 0 8 .1 4 1 5 3
CToral 389 1 3 7 .4 2 5 0 7
RSquare ( U ) 0.2131
Term Estim ate S t d Error C h iS q u a r e P r o b > C h iS q
Intercept - 1 .4 4 2 3 4 1 10 0.2659616 29.41 0.0000
zAFQT89 - 0 . 6 0 7 35910 0.3004261 4.0 9 0 .0 4 3 2
zSES + 0 .1 2 0 9 4 0 8 2 0 .3 0 9 6 6 4 1 0.1 5 0.6 96 1
zAge -0 .2 4 H 96 9 0 0 .2089849 1.33 0.2 48 1
608 Appendix 4
PrcBirthPov
[No-Yes] - 0 .6 7 8 9 8 9 8 0 0 .2 2 3 2 7 5 9.25 0.0 02 4
B S r a tu s
[Illegit-Legit] + 0 .8 0 81 21 94 0 .2 05 8 0 3 3 15.42 0.0001
T he College Sam ple: O m itted . Included no w om en w ho h a d received

A i d to Families with D e p e n d e n t C h ild re n ( A F D C ) within a year after
th e birth.
D E P E N D E N T VARIABLE: O n welfare for at least five years versus w om en
with no welfare experien ce at all.
SA M P L E R E ST R IC T IO N S: W o m e n with at leasr on e child born prior to J a n
uary 1, 1986. For w om en scored as no welfare, child b o m after D e
c e m b e r 31, 1977 and c o m p le te d ata on welfare receipt from 1978 to
1986.
B asic Analysis, Adding Poverty Status in the Year Prior to Birth

(PreBirthPov) and M arital Status at the Time o f the Birth (B S ta tu s):
Source DF -LogL ik elihoo d C hiSq uare P r n b > C h iS q
M o del 5 44.82635 89.65269 0.000000
Error 493 96 .9 01 56
C: Total 498 141.72790
RSquare (LJ) 0.3163
Observations 499
Term Estimate S td Error C hiSq uare P r o b > C h iS q
Intercept - 1 .5 8 4 0 8 7 8 0.2 826002 31.42 0.0000
zAFQ T89 - 0 .5 5 0 6 8 7 8 0.29 50 68 7 3.48 0 .0 6 2 0
zSES - 0 .4 9 2 1 9 5 9 0 .2 77 93 68 3.14 0 .0 7 6 6
zAge - 0 .1 0 9 4 3 3 8 0 .2 27 63 55 0.23 0 .6 30 7
PreBirthPov
[No-Yes] - 0 .7 6 3 6 3 5 8 0 .2 33 63 59 10.68 0.0011
BStatus
[Illegir-Legit] + 1.1951879 0.20 50 13 3 3.99 0.0000
T he High School Sam ple, Adding Poverty Statu.'; in the Year Prior to Birth
(PreBirthPov) and M arital Status at the Time o f the Birth (B S ta tu s):
Source DF -L ogL ik elih oo d C h iSq u are P r o h > C h iS q
Model 5 13.898589 27.79718 0 .0 0 0 0 4 0
Error 251 48 .695997
C Total 256 62 .594585
RSquare (U ) 0.2220
Observations 257
Appendix 4 609

Term Estimate Std Error C h iS q u a re P ro b > C h iS q
Intercept -1.7786656 0.390 1684 20.78 0.0000
zAFQT89 -0.2301309 0.4429317 0.27 0.6034
:SE S -0.3131157 0 .483273 9 0.42 0.5170
zAge -0 .0377430 0.3173131 0.01 0.905 3
PreBirthPov
[No-Yes] -0.6891978 0.3355851 4.22 0.0400
BStatus
[lllegit-Legit] +1.1068557 0.307595 12.95 0.0003
The College Sam ple: O m itted. T h e c ro ss- se c t io n a l C o l l e g e S a m p l e i n c l u d e d

no w om en w ho were o n chronic welfare w ith in a year after rhe birth.
C H A P T E R 10: P A R E N T I N G
D EPEN D EN T V A R IA B LE : Did the m o t h e r s m o k e d u r in g p r e g n a n c y ?

SA M PLE R E S T R IC T IO N S : N one.
Basic A nalysis:
Source DF -L o gL ikelih oo d C h iS q u are P ro h >C h iS q
Model 3 84.6762 169.3523 0.000000
Error 2338 1443.8251
C Total 2341 1528.5013
RSquare (U) 0.0554
Observations 2342
Param eter Estim ates
Term Estimate S td Error C h iS q u are P ro b > C h iS q
Intercept -0.65729780 0.046 5003 199.81 0.0000
zAFQT89 -0.63479220 0.06454 08 96.74 0.0000
zSES -0.13376440 0.0604787 4.89 0.0270
zAge +0.09727632 0.0484283 4.03 0.0446
D EPEN D EN T V A R IA B LE : Low birth w e ig h t ( w e i g h t less t h a n 5.5 p o u n d s a t

birth).
SA M PLE R E S T R IC T IO N S : E x c lu d e s p r e m a t u r e b a b i e s w h o se w e ig h t w a s l e s s
th a n 5.5 lbs. bur was a p p r o p r ia te for g e s t a t i o n a l age.
Basic A nalysis:
Source DF -L o gL ikelih oo d C h iS q u are P ro b > C h iS q
Model 3 6 .55199 13.10397 0 .0 0 4 4 1 7
Error 2273 349.79375
C Total 2276 356.34574
RSquare (U ) 0.0184
Observations 2277
610 Appendix 4

Term Estimate Std Error C hiSq uare P r o h > C h iS q
Intercept - 3 .4 0 6 0 0 0 1 0 0.1 27 00 04 719.25 0.0000
zAFQT89 - 0 .4 4 3 0 8 1 7 0 0.1 496847 8.76 0.0031
zSES +0.03.312669 0 .1 492929 0.05 0.8 2 4 4
zAge +0 .26 89 62 36 0.1 226929 4.81 0.0 28 4
B asic A nalysis, Adding Poverty Status in the Year Prior to Birth (PreBirth-
P o v ):
S o u rce DF -LogL ik elihoo d C h iS q u a r e P r o b > C h iS q
M odel 4 9.09299 18.18599 0 .00 1 1 3 5
Error 1859 298.98002
C Total 1863 308.07301
RSquare (U ) 0.0295
Observations 1864
Term Estimate Std Error C h iS q u a re Proh>C hiSq
Intercept -3 .1 2 5 0 9 8 6 0 0.16455 360.69 0.0000
zAFQT89 - 0 .4 5 5 8 3 8 0 0 0 .1674174 7.41 0.0065
zSES +0.02995737 0.16 28 60 9 0.03 0.8541
zA g e +0 .34 292817 0.1342861 6.52 0.0107
PreBirthPov
[No-Yes] -0 .2 8 6 4 4 9 5 0 0.15725 3.32 0.0685
B a sic Analystis, Adding M others Age at Birth (A geBirth):

S o u rc e DF -LogL ik elihoo d C h iSq u are P r o h > C h iS q
M odel 4 6.77955 13.55909 0 .0 0 8 8 4 4
Error 2272 349.56619
C' Total 2276 356.34574
RSquare (U ) 0.0190
Observations 2277
T erm Estimate S td Error C h iS q u are P r o h > C h iS q
Intercept - 3 .9 0 9 6 5 7 9 0 0.76 17 51 4 26.34 0.0000
zAFQ T89 - 0 .4 6 2 5 1 5 2 0 0 .1 52 28 04 9.22 0.0 0 2 4
zSF.S + 0 .0 15 84 48 0 0 .1517047 0.01 0.9 16 8
zAge +0 .25 36 07 89 0.1 252257 4.10 0 .0 42 8
A g e Birth + 0 .0 20 95 85 4 0 .0 31 11 04 0.45 0.5005
Appendix 4 6 11

Source DF -L o g L ik elih o o d C h iSq u are Proh>C hiSq
Model 3 1. 9 6 9 9 9 3.9 3 9 9 8 0 .2 6 8 0 1 9
Error 944 1 7 9 .0 9 0 8 0
C Total 947 1 8 1.06079
R S q u a re ( U ) 0 .0 1 0 9
Ohservat ions 9 48
P aram e te r E stim ate s
Term Estim ate S t d Error C h iSq u are Proh >C h iSq
Intercept - 3 .1 2 7 8 5 9 7 0 .1 7 7 8 9 0 8 30 9.1 6 0.0000
:A F Q T 8 9 - 0 .3 5 6 0 3 1 9 0 .2 3 8 7 0 3 4 2 .2 2 0.1 358
:S F S + 0 .0 6 53 65 1 0.2379847 0 .0 8 0 .7 8 3 6
zAge +0.2490558 0 .1681270 2 .1 9 0.1385
The College Sam ple: O m i t t e d . T h e c r o s s - s e c t i o n a l C o l l e g e S a m p le

included only four lo w -b irth - w e ig h t b a b ies.
D EPEN D EN T V A R IA B LE : T h e c h i l d s m o t h e r w a s u n d e r the poverty line

throu ghou t the c h il d s first th r e e y e a rs ot life.
SA M PLE R E S T R IC T IO N S : In c lu d e s c h il d r e n b o r n from Ja n u a r y 1, 1 9 7 8
through D e c e m b e r 31, 1 9 8 7 , w ith c o m p l e t e d a t a o n p o v e rty for th e
first three years o f the c h i l d s life, h e g i n n i n g w ith th e c ale n d ar year
o f hirth. C o m p a r is o n g r o u p c o n s i s t s o f c h i l d r e n o f m o t h e r s who w ere
n o t in poverty in any o f th o s e years.
Basic A nalysis:
Source DF -L ogL ik elih o o d C h iSq u are P rob >C h iSq
Model 3 7 9 .8 4 2 4 2 1 5 9 .6 8 4 8 0.000000
Error 1054 2 4 6 .6 3 0 2 9
C Total 1057 326.47271
RSquare (U ) 0 .2 44 6
P aram eter Estim ates
Term Estim ate S t d Error C h iS q u are P rob >C h iSq
Intercept - 2 .9 3 1 9 3 1 6 0.1679177 30 4 .8 7 0.0000
zAFQT89 -1 .1608860 0 .1 8 9 3 8 7 7 37 .57 0.0000
zSES - 1 .0 3 8 6 2 5 3 0 .1 734586 35.85 0.0000
2Age - 0 .1 8 3 7 5 3 7 0 .1 320334 1.94 0.1640
612 Appendix 4
Basic Analysis, Adding Poverty Status in the Year Prior to Birth (PreBirthPov):
Source DF - L o g U k e lih o o d C h iS q u a re P r o b > C h iS q
M odel 4 133.38437 266.7687 0.000000
Error 967 161.88379
C To tal 971 2 95 .26816
RSquare (U ) 0.4517
Observat ions 972
T erm Estimate S t d Error C h iS q u are P v o b > C h iS q
Intercept - 1 .9 6 8 5 0 1 7 0 .2117444 86.43 0.0000
zA FQ T89 -1.07 7 2 4 4 7 0.2 375948 20.56 0.0000
zSES -0 .8 9 7 7 3 8 5 0 .2215879 16.41 0.0001
zAge +0.0117316 0 .1 68 18 89 0.00 0.9 44 4
PreBirthPov
[No-Yes] - 1 .7 3 4 5 9 8 6 0.1 63 52 06 112.53 0.0000
T h e High School Sample, ,Adding Poverty Status in the Year Prior to Birth
( PreBirthPov)
Source DF -LogL ik elihoo d C h iSq u are P r o b > C h \S q
M odel 4 1 33.38437 266.7687 0.000000
Error 967 161.88379
C To tal 971 295.26816
Observations 972
P a r a m e t e r E s t i m a t i ;s
T erm Estimate Std Error C h iS q u a re P roh>C hiSq
I n tercept - 1 .9 6 8 5 0 1 7 0 .2 11 74 44 86.43 0.0000
zAFQ T89 - 1 .0 7 7 2 4 4 7 0 .2 37 59 48 20.56 0.0000
zSES -0 .8 9 7 7 3 8 5 0 .2 21 58 79 16.41 0.0001
zAge +0.0117316 0.1 681889 0.00 0.9 4 4 4
PreBirthP ov
[No-Yes] -1 .7 3 4 5 9 8 6 0 .16 35 20 6 112.53 0.0000
T h e College Sam ple: O m itte d . T h e cross-sectional C o l l e g e S a m p l e

in c lu d e d only one child whose m o th er was b en ea th the poverty line
th r o u g h o u t rhe first three years.
D E P E N D E N T V ARIABLE: T h e c h ild s H O M E index score was in the b o tto m

d ecile.
S A M P L E R E ST R IC T IO N S: N one.
A d d i t i o n a l control variables: T est year (TestYr, n o m in al: 1986, 1988, or
1 9 9 0 ) and the c h ild s age category for scoring the H O M E index
( H o m e A g e C a t , n o m in al, in years: 0/2,.3/5, 6 + ) .
Appendix 4 613
Basic A nalysis:
Source DF -L ogL ik elih oo d C h iS q u a r e P rob > C h iS q
Model 7 8 8 .9 2 2 5 177.8451 0 .0 0 0 0 0 0
Error 5114 11 90 .6 2 6 7
C Total 5121 1 2 7 9 .5 4 9 2
RSquare (U ) 0 .0 6 9 5
O b se rv a t io n s 5122
P a ra m e te r E stim ate :
Term E s tim ate S t d Error C 'h iSquare P ro b > C h iS q
Intercept -2 .8 4 3 0 0 0 1 0 .0 6 8 7 8 5 9 1708.3 0 .0 0 0 0
AHQT89 -0 .6 7 1 0 1 8 6 0 .0 7 6 5 9 9 8 76.74 0.0000
:S E S -0 .2 3 8 3 4 5 8 0.0800828 8 .8 6 0 .0 0 2 9
lA ge -0 .1 4 2 8 1 3 9 0 .0 6 2 9 0 2 5.15 0.0232
TestYr
[86-901 + 0.0 12 8 6 25 0.0858087 0.02 0.8808
TestYr
|88-90] -0 .0 4 1 4 1 9 6 0 .0 7 9 8 3 7 3 0.27 0 .6 0 3 9
H om eAgeCat
[0/2-6+] +0 .3 2 2 5 8 1 9 0 .0 8 1 5 4 1 15.65 0.0001
1l o m e A g e C a t
13/5-6+1 - 0 .1 3 .3 8 2 7 3 0 .0 8 5 2 0 6 1 2.47 0 .1 1 6 3
Basic A nalysis, A dding Poverty S tatu s in the Y ear Before the H O M E Incle:
was Scored ( P re T Y P o v ):
Source OF L o g L i k e l ih o o d C h iS q u a r e P rob > C h iSq
Model 8 1 1 6 .4 7 1 9 2 3 2 .9 4 3 8 0 .0 0 0 0 0 0
Error 4655 1 0 4 9 .6 6 8 8
C Total 4663 1 1 6 6 .1 4 0 7
RSquare (U ) 0 .0 9 9 9
O b se rv a t io n s 4664
Term Estim ate S t d Error C h iS q u a r e P ro b > C h iSq
Intercept -2 .5 4 1 3 1 8 0 0.0768882 1092.4 0.0 0 0 0
zAFQT89 -0 .5 7 1 7 0 5 2 0.0847651 4 5 .4 9 0 .0 0 0 0
zSES -0.1 6 4 6 8 4 2 0 .0 848268 3.77 0.0522
zAge -0 .0 8 3 6 2 0 4 0.0 67.3282 1.54 0 .2 1 4 2
TestYr
[86-90] U n s ta b le + 0 .0 0 6 8 1 7 2 0 .0 9 0 0 5 1 5 0.01
0.9.397
TestYr
[88-90] -0.0 5 3 8 3 5 3 0.0851491 0 .4 0 0 .5272
H om eA ge
C at[0/2-6+] + 0 .3 1 0 0 3 7 1 0.0867081 12.79 0 .0 0 0 3
6]4 Appendix 4
H om e Age
C a r [3 / 5 - 6 + ] - 0 .0 9 6 8 5 3 5 0.0892661 1.18 0.27 79
PreTYPov
[No-Yes] -0.53 66 00 1 0.0 66 43 95 65.23 0 .0 0 0 0
B a sic A nalysis, Adding A F D C S ta tu s in the Year Before the H O M E Index

W as Scared (P reT Y A D C );
Source DF LogLikelihood C h iS q u a re P r o h > C h iS q
M odel 8 120.4866 240.9733 0 .0 0 0 0 0 0
Error 5101 1 150.3749
C T o tal 5109 1270.8615
RSquare (U ) 0.0948
Observations 5110
T e rm Estimate S td Error C hiSq uare P m h > ( IhiSq
In tercep t -2 .4 6 3 9 3 3 5 0.0 797203 955.26 0.0 0 0 0
zAFQ T89 - 0 .5 8 3 5 0 9 8 0.078223 55.65 0 .0 0 0 0
zSES -0 .1 9 7 3 5 4 5 0.0 813485 5.89 0.015 3
zAge - 0 .0 9 0 8 7 1 3 0 .0 64 44 99 1.99 0.1 5 8 6
T e stY r[86 -9 0] -0.01 05 34 1 0.0 87 2 3 3 9 0.01 0.9 03 9
T e st Y r[88-90] -0 .0 2 3 2 4 9 5 0 .0811592 0.08 0.7745
Hom eAge
C a r [0 / 2 - 6 + ] +0.3429802 0 .0829005 17.12 0.0 0 0 0
H om e Age
C at{3/5-6+] - 0 .1 3 4 8 7 4 0 0.08 63 76 4 2.44 0.1 1 8 4
PreTYADC:
[No-Yes] - 0 .5 5 7 2 4 1 7 0 .0 68 01 04 67.13 0.0 0 0 0
B a sic A nalysis, Adding Both Poverty and A F D C Status in the Year Before
the H O M E Index was Scored ( PreT Y Pov, P reT Y A D C ):
Source DF -L ogL ik elih oo d C h iSq u are P r o h > C h iS q
M odel 9 127.1525 254.3049 0 .0 0 0 0 0 0
Error 4654 1038.9883
C T o tal 4663 1166.1407
(.Observations 4664
T e rm Estimate S td Error C hiSq uare P r o b > L h iS q
In tercep t - 2 .3 6 4 2 8 6 4 0 .0832843 805.89 0 .0 0 0 0
zAFQ T89 - 0 .5 4 5 2 0 6 8 0 .0 8 49 77 9 41.16 0.0 0 0 0
zSES - 0 .1 6 5 7 9 7 8 0 .0 8 52 41 4 3.78 0.0 5 1 8
zAge - 0 .0 6 6 4 4 1 6 0 .0 6 7 9 0 8 8 0.96 0 .3 2 7 9
Appendix 4 615
TestYr[86-90| l.Jn.srable + 0 .0 0 2 9 0 8 3 0 .0 9 0 4 4 3 1 0 .0 0
0.9743
TesrYr[88-90] -0 .0 4 5 5 8 6 3 0.0856239 0 .2 8 0 .5 9 4 4
H om eA ge
C at|0/2-6+] + 0 .3 1 4 5 4 5 5 0 .0 8 7 2 7 9 12.99 0 .0 0 0 3
H om eA ge
C a t[3 /5 '6 + ] -0.1002522 0.0896764 1.25 0 .2 6 3 6
PreTYADC
[No-Yes] -0 .3806916 0.0809799 2 2 .1 0 0 .0 0 0 0
PreTYPov
[No-Yes] - 0.3774093 0 .0 7 6 2 8 2 8 24 .4 8 0 .0 0 0 0

Source DF - L o g L ik e l i h o o d C h iSq u are Proh >C 'h iS q
Model 7 26 .90 51 3 5 3 .8 1 0 2 6 0.000000
Error 2282 5 2 6 .9 2 2 0 6
C Total 2289 5 5 3 .8 2 7 1 9
R S q u a r e (LJ) 0 .0 4 8 6
Term Estim ate Std Error C h iS q u are P ro b > C h iS q
Intercept -2.9 0 7 1 2 7 4 0.1079507 7 2 5 .2 3 0.0000
:A FQ T 89 -0 .5655610 0 .1 3 3 1 4 4 5 1 8.04 0.0000
zSES -0 .3731384 0 .1 3 5 5 4 5 6 7 .5 8 0.0059
:A g e - 0 .1 5 6 9 2 2 1 0.0964674 2 .6 5 0 .1 0 3 8
TesrYr|86-90] +0.0755310 0 .1 2 9 5 8 7 4 0 .3 4 0.5600
TestYr[88-90] -0 .1 4 8 7 9 7 0 0.1239539 1.44 0 .2 3 0 0
H om eA ge
Cac|0/2-6+] + 0.3 15 9 0 89 0 .1 2 3 6 1 0 4 6 .5 3 0.0106
H om eA ge
Cat[3/5-6+] -0.0 2 5 4 8 5 0 0 .1 2 4 2 0 5 5 0 .0 4 0 .8 3 7 4
The College Sam ple: O m i t t e d . T h e c r o s s - s e c t i o n a l s a m p l e in clu d ed

only five cases o f c h ild re n in the b o t t o m d e c i l e o n rhe H O M E in dex .
D EPEN D EN T V A R IA B L E : T h e ch ild w as in th e b o t t o m d e c il e o n any o f the

four d e v e l o p m e n ta l in d ic ato rs ( f r i e n d l i n e s s in d e x , d ifficu lty in d e x ,
m otor and s o c i a l d e v e l o p m e n t in d e x , a n d b eh av io ral problem s
index).
SA M PLE R E S T R IC T IO N S : None.
A D D IT IO N A L C O N T R O L V A R IA B L E S: T e s t y e a r ( T estY r, n o m i n a l : 1 9 8 6 ,
1988, or 1 9 9 0 ).
616 Appendix 4
Basic A nalysis:
Source DF -LogL ik elihoo d C h iS q u a r e P r o b > C h iS q
Model 5 35.5004 71.00086 0 .0 0 0 0 0 0
Error 4885 1534.3911
C Total 4890 1569.8915
RSquare (U ) 0.0226
Observations 4891
Term Estimate Std Error C h iSq u are P r o b > C h iS q
Intercept - 2 .2 6 7 8 4 6 3 0 .0 523382 1877.5 0 .0 0 0 0
zA F Q T 8 9 - 0 .3 3 7 4 8 5 0 0.0 666453 25.64 0 .0 0 0 0
zSES - 0 .1 4 5 4 6 0 5 0 .0662047 4.83 0 .0 2 8 0
zAge - 0 .0 4 0 6 9 2 5 0.0 531744 0.59 0.4441
TestYr[86-90] +0.1789367 0.0 698843 6.56 0.0105
TestYr[88-90] - 0 .0 0 7 0 6 7 0 0.0677961 0.01 0 .9 1 7 0
Basic A nalysis, Adding Poverty Status and Welfare Status in the Year Prior
to Testing (PreTY Pov, P re T Y A D C ) and Whether the Child was Born out
o f Wedlock ( B Statu s):
Source DF -L ogL ik elih oo d C h iS q u are P r o b > C h iS q
Model 8 42 .9933 85.98651 0 .0 0 0 0 0 0
Error 4329 1350.0000
C Total 4337 1392.9933
Observations 4 3 38
P a r a m e t e r E s tim a te :
Term Estimate Std Error C h iS q u a re P r o h > C h iS q
Intercept - 2 .0 0 6 3 1 4 7 0 0.0 860525 545.59 0.0 0 0 0
zAFQT89 - 0 .2 5 1 7 4 4 9 0 0.075657 11.07 0.0 00 9
zSES - 0 .1 3 2 7 0 4 2 0 0.0 708367 3.51 0.0610
zAge + 0.0 1726122 0.0 57 5 7 7 6 0.09 0.7643
TestYr[86-90] + 0 .1 8 56 62 28 0.0 735475 6.37 0.0 1 1 6
TestYr[88-90] +0 .0 1 8 7 7 3 2 8 0.07 24 93 0.07 0.7957
P r eT Y A D C
[Yes-No] + 0 .1 3 05 67 20 0.0 820003 2.54 0.1113
PreTYPov
[Yes-No] +0 .2 4 1 9 9 1 9 0 0.0 71 4 2 5 6 11.48 0.0007
BStatus
[ 11legit-Legit] +0 .01 70 77 07 0.0 76 4 0 8 9 0.05 0.82 31
Appendix 4 617
T h e High School S a m p le :
Source DF -L o gL ik elih o o d C h iS q u are P ro b > C h iS q
Model 5 1 3.5 9 8 2 4 2 7 .1 9 6 4 7 0 .0 0 0 0 5 2
Error 2181 7 0 4.58153
C Total 2186 7 1 8 .1 7 9 7 6
R S q u a re ( U ) 0 .0 1 8 9
Term Estim ate S t d Error C h iSq u are P rob >C h iS q
Intercept -2.3 1 7 8 1 3 5 0 .08 3 4 74 5 7 7 0 .9 9 0 .0 0 0 0
zAFQT89 -0.3193097 0 .1100786 8.41 0.0037
2S E S -0 .3161019 0.1 113263 8 .0 6 0 .0 0 4 5
zAge +0.0231487 0 .0 7 7 8 7 3 8 0 .0 9 0.7663
TestYr[86-90] +0.1566625 0 .1 0 2 9 9 9 7 2.31 0 .1 2 8 3
TestYr[88-90] + 0 .0 1 3 6 1 8 7 0.0 99 6 2 55 0.0 2 0 .8 9 1 3
T h e C ollege S a m p le :
Source DF -L ogL ik elih oo d C h iS q u are P roh>C hiSq
Model 5 5 .1 6 6 0 9 7 1 0 .3 3 2 1 9 0.066352
Error 346 7 4 .3 9 5 9 2 3
( ' Total 351 7 9 .5 6 2 0 2 0
RSquare (U ) 0 .0 6 4 9
P aram e te r E stim ate :
Term Estim ate S t d Error C h iSq u are P roh>C hiSq
Intercept -3 .0081530 0 .5 3 0 2 4 4 3 2 .1 8 0 .00 0 0
zAFQT89 +0.78938018 0 .3 5 8 1 3 1 2 4 .8 6 0 .0 2 7 5
zSES -0 .8 0 8 9 8 4 3 0 0.3 37 1 1 07 5 .7 6 0 .01 6 4
zAge U n s t a b le +0.01498142 0 .2 8 2 2 6 8 3 0 .0 0
0.9577
TestYr[86'90] +0 .41 1 4 97 8 8 0 .3 7 1 9 6 8 6 1.22 0 .2 6 8 6
Te.stYr[88-90] -0 .3 4 6 0 3 3 0 0 0 .3 6 2 6 1 7 6 0.91 0 .3 3 9 9
D EPEN D EN T V A R IA B L E : T h e c h i l d w a s in t h e b o t t o m d ecile o n th(

P eabod y P ic tu re V o c a b u la r y T e st ( P P V T ) .
SA M P LE R E S T R IC T IO N S : In c l u d e s o n ly c h i l d r e n te s te d a t ;a #e 6 a n d o ld e i
A D D IT IO N A L C O N T R O L V A R IA B L E S : T e s t y e a r ( T estY r, :n o m i n a l : 1986
1988, or 1 9 9 0 ) an d a g e at w h i c h t h e c h i l d w as te ste d ( c o n t i n u o u s , in
m on th s, m = 107.0, s = 2 7 . 1 )
618 Appendix 4
B asic A nalysis:
Model 6 24.69587 49.39173 0 .0 0 0 0 0 0
Error 640 186.29121
C T o tal 646 210.98708
RSquare (U ) 0.1170
Observations 647
Term Estimate Std Error C hiSq uare Proh>( 'h iSq
Intercept -2 .2 1 5 7 0 6 0 3 0.8 589707 6.65 0.00 99
zA F Q T 8 9 - 1 .1 1 9 9 4 1 3 8 0 .1 95 04 98 32.97 0.0 0 0 0
zSES - 0 .0 8 1 8 5 3 1 2 0.1 820132 0.20 0.6 52 9
zAge -0 .0 2 7 6 9 6 8 2 0 .18 5 6 3 7 6 0.02 0.8 81 4
PPVTAge - 0 .0 0 4 6 6 2 6 6 0.0 07 77 79 0.36 0.5 48 9
TestYr[86-90] - 0 .1 6 5 2 8 2 1 7 0.2 424523 0.46 0.4 95 4
TestYr[88-90] - 0 .0 7 9 7 0 1 4 6 0.2 250145 0.13 0.7232
B asic Analysis Adding Poverty Status in the Year Prior to the P P V T

( PreT Y Pov) and the H O M E Index Score Expressed in Standard Scores
(z tlO M E ):
S o u rc e DF LogLikelih ood C h iSq u are Proh>C hiSq
M o del 8 17.72094 35.44187 0.0 0 0 0 2 2
Error 582 153.59135
C Total 590 171.31229
RSquare (U ) 0.1034
Observations 591
Term Estimate S td Error C hiSq uare Proh>C hiSq
Intercept -2 .1 2 9 1 3 4 2 0 .9 56 52 24 4.95 0 .0 2 6 0
:A F Q T 8 9 - 1 .0 3 3 7 2 1 9 0 .2205373 21.97 0 .0 0 0 0
zSES - 0 .0 8 6 1 7 3 8 0.2 093703 0.17 0 .6 8 0 6
-A ge +0 .0296014 0 .2 14 59 26 0.02 0.8903
TestYr[86-90] - 0 .2 2 8 6 5 9 7 0 .2683805 0.73 0.3942
TestYr[88-90] -0 .0 4 8 3 0 1 7 0.2 52 63 43 0.04 0 .8 48 4
PPVTAge - 0 .0 0 6 7 9 3 0 0.0 085395 0.63 0.4263
zHOM E -0 .1 9 4 5 3 7 5 0.1 84 2 2 2 4 1.12 0 .2 9 1 0
P r eT Y P o v
[No-Yes] + 0 .09 03 50 4 0 .2 01 66 89 0.20 0.6541
Appendix 4 619

Source DF - L o gL ik eliho od C h iS q u a r e P r o b > C h iS q
Model 6 7 .2 2 5 5 1 4 14.45103 0.024984
Error 254 6 8 .2 3 6 5 8 9
C Total 2 60 75.46 21 03
R S q u a r e (U ) 0.0958
O bservations 261
Term Estim ate Std Error C h iS q u a r e P r o b > C h iS q
Intercept - 0 .2 7 0 5 7 9 5 1.4383055 0.0 4 0.8508
zAFQT89 -0.9 29 6 3 87 0 .3 95 23 3 3 5.53 0.0187
zSES -0.0918753 0.34 93 50 1 0.07 0.7926
zA Ke + 0 .9 2 6 7 6 1 3 0 .4 1 3 7 4 2 3 5.02 0.0251
Tesi Yr[86-90] - 1 .0 8 9 5 2 3 0 0 .4 2 1 4 3 1 6 6.6 8 0.0097
TestYr|88-90| +0.3167489 0 .3 5 9 1 5 6 5 0.7 8 0.3778
I T V T A kc - 0 .0 2 8 7 8 0 0 0 .0 1 3 2 7 4 8 4.70 0.0302
The College Sam ple: O m itte d . N o c ases o f a c h ild age 6 or older in th e

b o tto m decile o n the P P V T in the c ross-section al sample.
Women ivith Less T h an a High School Education:

Source DF - L o g L ik e lih o o d C h iS q u a re Proh>C hiSq
Model 6 6 .2 3 9 1 2 9 12.47826 0.052111
Error 139 70.5 37266
C Total 145 7 6.77 63 95
R S q u a re ( U ) 0.0813
O bservations 146
Term Estim ate S t d Error C h iS q u a re P r o b > C h iS q
Intercept - 3 .6 3 8 4 3 2 6 1.460085 6.21 0.0127
:A FQ T 89 - 0 .8 3 9 6 2 0 0 0 .3 0 9 3 7 8 4 7.37 0.0066
zSES + 0 .0 0 9 0 3 5 9 0 .2 9 1 4 7 8 4 0.00 0.9753
iAe - 0 .4 3 8 6 2 1 6 0.3 01 62 01 2.11 0.1459
TestYr|86-90| + 0 .3 7 7 1 3 4 2 0 .3 7 5 9 2 3 9 1.01 0.3158
TestYr[88-90] -0.4974755 0 .3 6 3 8 6 6 9 1.87 0.1716
PPV TA ge + 0 .0 1 3 3 4 8 0 0.011851 1.27 0.2600
620 Appendix 4
C H A P T E R 1 1 : C R IM E
D E P E N D E N T V A R IA B LE : T h e subject was in the top decile o n an in d ex of

self-rep orted crime.
SA M P L E R E S T R IC T IO N S : Includes only men.
Basic A n alysis:
S o u rc e DF -L ogL ik elih oo d C hiSq uare P r o h > C h iS q
Model 3 10.02735 20.05469 0.0 00 16 5
Error 2004 6 49 .74218
C Total 2007 659.76953
RSquare (U ) 0.0152
Observations 2008
T erm Estimate S t d Error C hiSq uare P r o h > C h iS q
Intercept - 2 .2 2 0 0 5 3 1 4 0 .0 80 78 52 755.20 0.0000
zAFQT89 - 0 .2 6 9 8 0 1 8 9 0 .0902397 8.94 0.0 02 8
zSES + 0.13 97 27 90 0 .0979853 2.03 0.15 39
zAge -0.20 37 20 81 0.080365 6.43 0.0112
T h e High School Sample:

S o u rc e DF -L ogL ik elih oo d C hiSq uare P r o b > C h iS q
Model 3 4 .2 82 28 8.564558 0 .0 1 5 6 7 7
Error 661 201.83770
('T o ta l 664 206.11998
RSquare (U ) 0.0208
Observations 665
T erm Estimate S td Error C h iSq u are P r o b > C h iS q
Intercept - 2 .3 5 0 3 2 4 6 7 0.1 445857 264.24 0.0000
zA FQ T89 + 0 .2 12 08 38 0.2 00 6 4 0 6 1.12 0.2 90 5
zSES +0 .36 53 40 0 0.1981511 3.40 0.0652
zAye - 0 .2 6 1 2 2 6 3 9 0 .1 45 70 19 3.21 0 .0 7 3 0
T h e College Sam ple:

So u rce DF -L ogL ik elih oo d C hiSq uare P r o h > C b iS q
M o de l 2.9 59 82 9 5.919657 0 .1 1 5 5 8 5
Error 276 4 6.57 7 8 7 0
C Total 279 49 .53 76 98
RSquare (U ) 0.0597
Observations 280
Appendix 4 621

Term Estim ate S td Error C h iS q u a r e P r o h > C h iS q
Intercept - 3 .3 3 0 7 0 8 0 1 0 .7 04 7 6 6 3 22.33 0.0000
zAFQT89 -0.63 46 8.3 57 0.5194501 1.49 0.2218
zSES + 0 .8 0 0 2 7 3 9 0 0 .4 5 9 1 2 0 7 3.04 0.0813
zAge + 0 .3 9 9 1 3 2 3 0 0 .306701 1.69 0.1931
DHPKNDHNT VARIABLE: T h e s u b je c t w a s i n t e r v i e w e d in a c o r r e c t i o n a l f a
c i l it y in cm e o r m o r e in t e r v ie w s f r o m 1 9 7 9 t o 1 9 9 0 .
SAMPLE RESTRICTIO N S: In c l u d e s o n l y m e n .
Basic A naly sis:

Source DF - L o g L ik e lih o o d C h iS q u a r e P r o b > C h iS q
Model 3 23 .3 1 4 4 4 46 .62 88 7 0.0 00000
Error 1941 21 9.90 12 5
C Total 1944 2 43 .2 1 5 6 9
R S q u a r e (U ) 0.0 95 9
O bservations 1945
P aram e te r E stim ate s
Term Estim ate S t d Error C h iS q u a r e P r o b > C h iS q
Intercept - 3 . 7 7 7 1 6 6 8 9 0 .1 7 1 7 9 3 8 483.41 0.0000
:A F Q T 8 9 - 0 . 8 9 6 6 6 2 6 0 0 .1 7 5 3 6 1 9 26.14 0.0000
zSES - 0 . 1 5 5 5 4 1 1 6 0 .1 8 0 6 1 4 9 0.74 0.3891
zAge + 0 .0 7 8 2 9 9 2 0 .1 4 6 8 6 3 4 0.2 8 0.5939
Th e High Sch ool S a m p le :

Source DF - L o g L ik e lih o o d C h iS q u a r e P ro b > C h iS q
Model 3 4 .0 5 8 4 6 4 8 .1 1 6 9 2 8 0.043656
Error 712 39.850585
('T o ta l 715 4 3 .9 0 9 0 4 9
RSquare (U ) 0 .0 9 2 4
O bservations 716
P aram e ter E stim ate s
Term Estim ate S td Error C h iS q u a r e P r o b > C h iS q
Intercept - 4 .9 6 5 7 8 7 6 3 0 .4 8 0 6 3 1 9 106.75 0.0000
zAFQ T89 - 1 .0 7 0 0 6 6 7 9 0.443121 5.83 0.0157
zSES -0 .16211965 0 .4 6 4 2 9 7 7 0.12 0.7270
zAge + 0 .4 6 7 2 7 1 9 0 0 .3 6 7 7 5 4 1.61 0.2039
T h e C ollege S a m p le : O m itted. N o on e in the cross-sectional College

Sam p le was ever interviewed in jail.
622 Appendix 4
C H A P T E R 12: C I V I L I T Y A N D C I T I Z E N S H I P
D E P E N D E N T VARIABLE: D id the su bject score yes o n the M id d le C la ss

V alu es Index?
SAM PLE RESTRICTIONS: Exclu des never-married persons w ho m et all the
o th e r c ond ition s o f the index and m en w ho were physically unable
to work or not in the labor force because they were a tt e n d in g school.
B asic A nalysis:
S o u rc e DF -LogL ik elih oo d C h iS q u are P r o b > C h iS q
Model 3 161.7136 32 3.427 3 0 .0 0 0 0 0 0
Error 3025 1937.4328
C Total 3028 2099.1465
RSquare (U ) 0.0770
Observations 3029
P;a r a m e t e r E s t i m a t e s
T erm Estimate S td Error C h iS q u are Proh>( diiSq
Intercept - 0 .0 6 3 8 5 3 3 0 0.038934 2.69 0.1 0 1 0
zAFQT89 +0.63250551 0 .05 28 17 6 143.41 0.0 0 0 0
zSES +0.24495537 0 .05 20 62 4 22.14 0.0 0 0 0
z Age +0.00663732 0.0 40 19 29 0.03 0.86 88
T h e H igh School Sam ple:

S o u rc e DF -LogL ik elihoo d C h iS q u are P r o b > C h iS q
M o del 3 3.00926 6.0 18528 0.1 10712
Error 1158 781.85686
C Total 1161 784.86612
RSquare (U ) 0.0038
Observations 1162
P aram e ter E stim ates
T erm Estimate Std Error C h iS q u a re P r o b > C h iS q
Intercept +0 .39 447706 0.0611821 41.57 0 .0 0 0 0
zAFQ T89 +0.16814512 0.0931181 3.26 0 .0 7 1 0
zSES - 0 .1 7 9 9 3 0 4 0 0.0903402 3.97 0 .0 4 6 4
z Age +0 .01 887678 0.06 2 1 7 7 6 0.09 0 .7 6 1 4
Appendix 4 6 23

Source DF - L ogL ike liho od C hiSquare P ro b > C h iS q
M odel 3 3.2 68 59 6.537177 0 .0 8 8 2 0 8
Error 398 2 0 0 .0 9 1 4 5
C Total 401 2 0 3 .3 6 0 0 4
RSquare (U ) 0.0161
Observations 402
P a ra m e te r E s t i m a t e s
Term Estimate Std Error ChiSquare P ro b > C h iS q
Intercept + 0 .9 9 5 1 6 2 0 2 0 .2 3 8 6 7 9 8 17.38 0.0000
zAFQ TS9 + 0 .3 9 2 5 1 3 4 9 0.1988073 3.90 0.0483
:S E S + 0 .0 3 6 9 2 1 5 8 0 .1 6 8 5 8 5 0.05 0 .8 26 6
:Age + 0 .1 3 8 7 6 1 3 7 0.1336384 1.08 0.2991
Appendix 5
Supplemental Material for

Chapter 13
T h r e e issues raised in C h a p t e r 13 are e l a b o r a te d here: a m ore detailed

discussion o f cultural bias, m ore e v i d e n c e for t h e n arrow ing o f the black-
white difference in c o g n itiv e ability, a n d rhe b ro a d e r arg u m en t for racial
d ifferences a d v a n c e d by Philippe R u sh to n .
M O RE O N T E S T BIA S
In C h a p t e r 13, we reported th at the sc ie n tific e v id e n c e d em o nstrates

ov erw helm ingly th at stan dardized tests of c o g n i t iv e ability are not b i
ased against blacks. H ere, we e lab o rate on rhe reaso n in g an d evidence
that lead to that co n c lu sio n .
M ore on E x tern al E vidence o f D ias: Predictive Validity
Everyday c o m m e n ta ry o n test bias usually starts with the observation that

m em bers o f various ethnic (or s o c i o e c o n o m i c ) groups h av e different a v
erage scores an d leaps to the a ssu m p tio n that a group difference is prima
facie ev id en c e o f bias. B u t a m o m e n t s th o u g h t should c o n v in c e anyone
that this is not necessarily so. A group d ifferen ce is, in an d o f itself, e v i
d en c e o f test bias only if we h a v e so m e r e a so n for assum ing th at an un
biased test would find n o av erage difference b e tw e e n the groups. W h a t
m ight such a reason be? W e cast th e answ er in term s o f whites a n d blacks,
since that is the c o n t e x t for m ost ch arg es o f te st bias. In asm u ch as the c o n
text also usually in v o lv es a criticism of the u se o f the test in selectio n o f
persons for sc h o o l or jo b , the m o st p ertin en t r e a so n for assum in g equality
in the ab sence of test bias would be th at we h a v e o th e r d a ta show ing that
a random ly selected b lack and white w ith the s a m e test score h av e differ
ent outco m es. T h i s is w hat the t e x t refers to a s ex tern a l e v id e n c e o f bias.
626 Appendix 5
If for exam p le, blacks d o better in school than whites after c h o o sin g
b la c k s and whites with equal test scores, we could say that the test was
b iased ag a in st blacks in a c a d e m ic prediction. Sim ilarly, if they d o b e t'
te r on the j o b after c h o o sin g b lac k s and whites with eq u al test scores,
th e test c ould be c on sid ered biased against blacks for p red ic tin g work
p erform an c e. T h is way o f d e m o n stra tin g bias is ta n ta m o u n t to sh ow in g
t h a t the regression o f ou tco m es on scores differs for the two groups. O n
a test biased against blacks, the regression intercept would be higher tor
b la c k s th an whites, as illustrated in the graphic below. T est scores un-
W h en a te st is biased b e c a u se it sy ste m a tic a lly u n d e rp re d ic ts on e

g ro u p s p e rfo rm an c e
Outcome measure
d e r these co n d itio n s would u nderestim ate, or u n d erp red ic t, the p er

fo rm an c e o u tc o m e o f blacks. A random ly selected black an d w hite with
th e sam e IQ (shown by the vertical broken line) would no t h av e equal
o u tc o m e s; the black would outperform the white (as show n by the h o r
izontal bro ken lines). T h e test is therefore biased against blacks. O n an
u n b iased test, the two regression lines would c on v erge bec au se they
w ould h av e the sam e intercept (th e p oint at w hich rhe regression line
crosses the vertical axis).
Rut the grap hic a b o v e captures only on e o f the m any p ossible m a n i
festatio n s o f p redictive bias. S u p p o se, for e xam p le, a test was less valid
for blacks th a n for whites.1 1In regression terms, this would tran sla te into
a sm aller coefficient (slope in these graphics), which cou ld, in turn, be
asso ciated either with or without a difference in the intercept. T h e next
figure illustrates a few h yp oth etical possibilities.
A l l three black lines hav e the sam e low coefficient; they vary only
Appendix 5 627
W h en a te st is b ia se d b e c a u se it is a le ss v a lid p re d ic to r o f p e r fo r
m an c e fo r o n e g ro u p th a n a n o th e r
Outcom e measure
Predictor
in their intercepts. T h e gray line, re p re se n tin g whites, has a higher c o

efficient (th erefore, the line is steep er). B e g i n with the lowest o f th e
three b lack lines. O n ly at the very lowest p re d ic to r scores do blacks sc o re
higher th an whites o n the o u tc o m e m easure. A s the score on the p r e
dictor increases, whites with e q u iv a le n t p red ic tor scores have h i g h e r
ou tc o m e scores. H ere, the test bias is a g a in s t w hites, nor blacks. For th e
in term ediate b lack line, we would pick up e v id e n c e tor test bias a g a in s t
blacks in the low range o f test scores an d bias ag ain st whites in the h i g h
range. T h e top b lack line, with th e h ig h e st o f the three intercepts, w o u ld
accord with bias again st blacks th r o u g h o u t th e range, but d im in ish in g
in m ag n itu d e the higher the score.
R e ad e rs will quickly grasp t h a t test scores c a n predict o u tc o m e s d if
ferently for m em b ers o f different groups a n d th at such differences m ay
justify c la im s ot test bias. S o w h at are the facts? D o we see an y th in g like
the first of the tw o g rap h ics in th e d a t a a c le a r difference in in terc epts,
to the d isa d v a n ta g e o f blacks ta k in g th e test? O r is the picture c lo u d ier
a m ix ture of in terc ep t an d coefficien t differen ces, yielding one sort of
bias or an o th e r in different ranges o f th e test scores? W h e n q u e s tio n s
ab ou t d a t a c o m e up, cloudier an d m urkier is usually a safe bet. S o let us
start with the m o st relevan t c o n c lu sio n , a n d o n e ab ou t which th e re is
virtual u n a n im ity a m o n g stu d en ts o f the su b je c t of predictive b ia s in
testing: N o one has fourid statistically reliable evidence of predictive bias
against blacks, o f the sort illustrated in the first graphic, in large, rejrresenta-
tive sam ples of blacks and whites, where cognitive ability tests are the p red ic
tor variable for educational achievement or job perfonnance. In the n o t e s ,
628 Appendix 5
we list so m e o f the larger aggregation s of d ata and c o m p re h e n siv e a n a ly

ses su b s t a n t ia t in g this c o n c lu sio n .2 W e h av e found no m od ern , e m p iri
c a lly bused survey o f the literature o n test bias arguing th a t tests are
p re d ic tiv e ly b ia se d ag ain st blacks, although we hav e looked for them .
W h e n w e tu rn to the hundreds of sm aller studies that h a v e a c c u
m u la t e d in th e literature, we find ex am p les of varying regression c o e f
f ic ie n ts an d in terc ep ts, an d p redictive validities. T h is is a fu n d a m e n ta l
r e a s o n for fo c u sin g o n syntheses o f the literature. S m a lle r o r unrep re
s e n t a t iv e in d iv id u a l studies may occasionally find test bias b e c au se of
th e s ta tistic a l d isto rtio n s th at plague them. T h e re are, for e x a m p le , s a m
p li n g an d m e a s u r e m e n t errors, errors o f recording, tran scribing, and
c o m p u t i n g d a t a , restrictions of range in both the p redictor an d o u tc o m e
m e a s u r e m e n ts , a n d p redictor or ou tc o m e scales th at are less v a lid than
th ey m ig h t h a v e been.* G i v e n all the distorting sources o f variation ,
lack o f a g re e m e n t across studies is the rule.
B u t e v e n ta k e n d ow n to so fine a level, the c ase again st p redictive
bias a g a in st b lac k s rem ains overwhelm ing. A s late as 1984, A rth u r
J e n s e n was ab le to p roclaim th at I have not c om e across a bo n a fide e x
a m p le o f the o p p o s i t e finding [of a test that underpredicts b lack perfor
m a n c e ] . 4 J e n s e n s every finding regarding racial differences in IQ is
rou tin ely s u b je c t e d to intense scrutiny by his critics, but no o n e h as c o n
trad icted this on e. W e are not absolutely sure that our literature review
h a s id en tified every study since 1984, but our search revealed n o e x
a m p le s to c o u n t e r J e n s e n s generalization.151
In so far as th e m a n y in dividual studies show a p a r te m at all, it points
to o v e r p r e d i c t io n for blacks. M o re simply, this body of e v id e n c e suggests
th a t I Q tests are biased in favor o f blacks, no t against them . T h e single
most: m a ssiv e set o f d ata bearing o n this issue is the n ation al sa m p le of
m o re th a n 6 4 5 , 0 0 0 school children con d u c ted by so ciolog ist J a m e s
C o l e m a n a n d his associates for their landm ark e x a m in a tio n o f the
A m e r i c a n e d u c a t io n a l system in the m id-1960s. C o l e m a n s survey in
c lu d e d a stan d a rd ize d test o f verbal and nonverbal IQ, usin g the kinds
o f it e m s th at ch arac terize the classic IQ test an d are c o m m o n ly th o u g h t
to b e c u ltu rally b iased against blacks: picture vocabulary, se n te n c e c o m
p le t io n , a n a lo g ie s, an d the like. T h e C o l e m a n survey also in clud ed e d
u c a t i o n a l a c h i e v e m e n t measures o f reading level an d m ath level that
are th o u g h t t o b e straightforward measures o f what the stu d e n t has
learn ed . If I Q item s are cultural ly biased against blacks, it c ould be pre
d ic t e d that a b la c k stu d en t would do better on the a c h ie v e m e n t m e a
Appendix 5 629
sures chan the p u ta tiv e J Q m easure w o u ld l e a d o n e to e x p ec t (this is the

rationale b eh in d the current p o p u la rity o f s t e p s to modify the S A T so
that it focuses less o n aptitude an d m o r e o n m e a s u r e s o f what has b e e n
learned). Rut th e o p p o site occurred. O v e r a l l , b la c k IQ scores overpre-
dieted b lack a c a d e m ic a c h ie v e m e n t b y .26 s t a n d a r d d e v ia tio n s/
O n e in ference th a t m ight be d ra w n f r o m th is finding is that b l a c k
children were for so m e reason n o t t a k i n g a s m u c h from school as th eir
ability would p erm it, or that black c h i l d r e n w e n t to worse schools t h a n
white child ren, or any of several o th e r in t e r p r e t a t i o n s . Rut w hatever the
e x p la n a tio n m igh t be, the results d irec tly c o n t r a d i c t the hypothesis th a t
IQ tests give an unfairly low e stim a te of b l a c k a c ad e m ic p erform ance.
A se c o n d m ajo r source of d ata su g g e s tin g t h a t standardized tests o v er-
predict b la c k p e rfo rm an c e is the S A T . C o l l e g e s c o m m o n ly c o m p a re th e
p erform ance of freshm en, m easured by g r a d e p o i n t average, against the
e x p e c ta tio n s of their p erform ance a s p r e d i c t e d by S A T scores. A lite r
ature review of studies that broke d o w n t h e s e d a ta by eth nic group r e
vealed th at S A T scores o v erp red ic ted f r e s h m a n grades for b lac k s in
fourteen o f fifteen studies, by a m e d i a n o f .2 0 stan d a rd d e v ia tio n .7 In
five ad d itio n a l studies where the e t h n i c c la s s ifi c a t io n was m in o rity
rather th an specifically b lac k , the S A T s c o r e overpredicted c o lle g e
p erform ance in all five cases, by a m e d i a n o f .40 standard d e v i a tio n .h
For jo b p erform an c e, the m ost t h o r o u g h a n a ly s is is provided by the
H artiga n R e p o r t, assessing the r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n the G e n e ral A p t i
tude Test Battery ( G A T B ) an d job p e r f o r m a n c e measures. O u t o f s e v
enty-tw o studies that were assem b led fo r re v ie w , the white intercept w as
higher than th e black in tercept in s ix t y o f t h e m that is, the G A T R
ov erpredicted b lac k p erform ance in six ty o u t o f th e seventy-two s t u d
ies.'''' O f the twenty studies in w hich t h e in t e r c e p t s were statistically s i g
nificantly differen t (at the .01 le v e l), th e w h ite intercept was g re a te r
th an the b lack in tercept in all tw enty c a s e s . 10
T h e s e findings ab ou t o v e rp r e d ic tio n a p p ly to the ordinary o u t c o m e
m easures o f a c a d e m ic an d jo b p e r f o r m a n c e . R u t it should also be n o t e d
that o v e r p r e d ic tio n c a n be a m is l e a d in g c o n c e p t w hen it is a p p lie d to
o u tc o m e m easures for w hich the p r e d i c t o r ( I Q , in our c o n tin u in g e x
a m p le ) h as very low validity. I n a s m u c h a s b l a c k s a n d whites differ o n
average in their scores o n so m e o u t c o m e t h a t is n o t linked to th e p r e
dictor, the m ore biased it will be a g a i n s t w h i t e s . C o n s id e r the n e x t fig
ure, c o n stru c ted o n the a ssu m p tio n t h a t t h e p re d ic to r is nearly in v a lid
an d that the tw o groups differ o n a v e r a g e i n their o u tc o m e levels.
630 Appendix 5
A p r e d ic to r w ith low v a lid ity m ay se e m to be biased a g a in st w h ites

if th e re is a s u b s t a n t ia l d iffe re n c e in th e o u tc o m e m e a su r e
O u tco m e m easure
High

W h it e
Black
Low ---------------------------------------------------------------
L o w ----------------------------------------------- High
Predictor
T h i s sit u a tio n is r e le v a n t to som e of the ou tc o m e measures discussed

in C h a p t e r 14, su ch as short-term male unem ploym ent, where the black
a n d w hite m e a n s are q u ite different, but I Q has little re latio n sh ip to
sh o rt-te rm u n e m p l o y m e n t for either whites or hlacks. T h i s figure was
c o n str u c te d a s s u m in g on ly that there are factors in fluencing o u tc o m e s
t h a t are n o t c a p tu r e d by the predictor, h e n c e its low validity, resulting
in t h e low s lo p e o f th e p arallel regression lines.11'1T h e in tercepts differ,
e x p r e s s in g t h e generally higher level o f perform ance hy whites c o m
p ared to b lac k s t h a t is u n e x p lain e d by the predictor variable. It we knew
w h at the m issin g p r e d ic tiv e factors are, we could include them in the
predictor, an d the in te rc e p t difference would va n ish and so would the
im p lic a tio n t h a t th e newly constituted predictor is biased again st
w h ites. W h a t su c h results se e m to be telling us is, first, th at I Q tests are
n o t p r e d ic tiv e ly b iase d ag a in st blacks but, second, that IQ tests alone
d o n o t explain, the o b se r v e d black-white differences in o u tco m es. It
t h erefo re o fte n looks as if th e IQ test is biased against whites.
M o r e on In tern al E vidence o f B ias: Item A nalysis
L a y m e n are o fte n s k e p t ic a l that IQ test items could measure an y th in g

a s d e e p as in te llig e n c e . K n o w in g the answers seems to th e m to d epe n d
l e s s o n in te llig e n c e t h a n o n h av in g b een exposed to certain kinds o f c u l
tu ral o r h istorical in fo r m a tio n . It is usually a short step from here to the
c o n c l u s i o n t h a t the tests m u st be biased. Pundits o f varying sorts rein
force this in tu itio n a b o u t test item bias, c la im in g th at the m iddle- and
Appendix 5 631
upper-class white culture infuses test it e m s e v e n after vigorous efforts to

exp u n g e it.
T h e d a ta c o n firm in g S p e a r m a n s h y p o t h e s i s , w hich we discussed at
som e length in C h a p t e r 13, p ro v id e th e m o s t c o n v in c in g c o n c e p t u a l
refutation of this a lle g atio n by p r o v i d i n g a n a l t e r n a t iv e e x p la n atio n t h a t
has been h o m e our by m any stud ies: th e it e m s o n which blacks a n d
whites differ m o st widely are n o t th o s e w i t h t h e m o st esoteric c u ltu r a l
c on ten t, b u t th e o n e s that best m e a s u r e t h e g e n e r a l intelligence factor,
g . ' Bur m any o th e r studies h a v e d ire c tly a s k e d w h eth er the cultural c o n
tent of items is a sso ciated with th e m a g n i t u d e of the b la c k -w h ite d i f
ference, w hich we review here.
O n e o f rhe earliest o f the stud ies, a 1951 d o c to r a l thesis at C a t h o l i c
U niversity, p roc eed ed on the a s s u m p t i o n t h a t s o m e test items are m o r e
d e p e n d e n t o n exp o su re to culture t h a n o t h e r s . " Frank M c G u r k , th e
stu d ys author, c o n seq u en tly h a d larg e n u m b e r s of in dependent ju d g e s
rate m any test item s for their c u ltu r a l l o a d i n g . O n exploratory tests, he
was able to e stab lish e a c h item s g e n e r a l d ifficulty, which is defined s i m
ply as the p ro p o rtio n o f a p o p u la tio n t h a t g e t s th e item wrong. H e c o u ld
therefore identify pairs of items, o n e h i g h l y lo a d e d with cultural in fo r
m atio n and the o th e r not highly lo a d e d h u t of eq ual difficulty. N o w , f i
nally, the crucial ev a lu a tio n c o u ld be m a d e w ith a sam ple of black a n d
white high sc h o o l students m a t c h e d for s c h o o l i n g and s o c i o e c o n o m i c
background . T h e black-w hite gap , h e d is c o v e r e d , was about tw ice as
large on item s rated as low in c u ltu r a l l o a d i n g as on items rated as h ig h
in cultural loadin g. C on sid er, for e x a m p l e , a p a i r o f equally difficult test
items. T h e o n e th a t is culturally l o a d e d is p r o b a b ly difficult b e c au se it
draws on esote ric kno w led ge; the o t h e r it e m is probably difficult b e c a u s e
it calls o n c o m p l e x co gn itiv e p r o c e s s i n g g . M c G u r k s results u n d e r
m in ed the p ro p o sitio n that a c c ess to e s o t e r i c k n o w led g e was to b l a m e
for the b lack-w h ite difference.
A n o t h e r a p p r o a c h in the p ursuit o f t e s t - i t e m bias is based on w h i c h
items blacks an d w hites find h ard o r easy. C o n c e p tu a lly , this is m u c h
like M c G u r k s a p p ro a c h , ex c e p t t h a t it d o e s n o t require us to h av e it e m s
rated by exp erts, a su bjectiv e p r o c e d u r e t h a t s o m e m ight find s u s p e c t.
Instead, if the cultural in fluence m a t t e r s a n d if b lac k s and whites h a v e
access to different cultural b a c k g r o u n d s , t h e n item s rhat pick up t h e s e
cultural d ifferen ces should split th e t w o g r o u p s . Item s drawing o n c u l
tural k n o w led ge m ore av ailab le to w h i t e s t h a n to blacks should be, o n
average, relatively easier for w h ite s t h a n f o r b lac k s. Items lack in g th is
632 Appendix 5
tip for w h ite s or ite m s with a tip for hlacks should not be differentially
easier for w h ite s a n d m ay be easier for blacks.
T h is id ea is te ste d by ran kin g the items on a test separately for whites
and for hlacks, in o rd er of difficulty. T h a t is, the easiest item for whites
is the tine w ith the h ig h e st prop ortion of correct answers a m o n g whites;
the n e x t e a s ie s t ite m tor whites is the on e with rhe second h igh e st pro-
portion of c o rre c t answ ers for whites; and so on. N o w repeat the p r o c e
dure usin g th e h la c k s prop ortions o f correct answers. T h is will result in
two sets of r a n k ord ers for all the items. T h e rank-order c o rrelatio n b e
tw een th e m is a m e a su re o f the test-item bias hypothesis: T h e larger the
correlation is, the less support rhe hypothesis finds. A lternatively, the
pro p o rtio n s of c o r r e c t responses within each group are tran sform ed into
standard sc o res a n d th e n correlated by som e other measure o f c o rre la
tion, su c h as the P e a r so n product-m om ent coefficient.
Either way, the result is clear. R elative item difficulties are essentially
the sam e for hoth races (hy sex). T h a t is, hlacks and whites of the sam e
sex c o m e clo se to fin d in g the sam e item the easiest, the sam e item next
easiest, all th e way d o w n to the hardest item .11'11 W h en the rank order
of difficulty differs ac ro ss races, the differences tend to he sm all and u n
system atic. R a n k o rd er correlations ab ove .95 are not u n c o m m o n tor
the items o n the W e c h sle r and S tan fo rd -B in et tests, w hich are, in fact,
the tests th a t p r o v id e m ost ot the an e cd otal m aterial for arguing that
test items are b iased . P e a rso n correlations are often som ew h at lower hut
typically still a b o v e .8. M oreover, when items do vary in difficulty across
races, m o st o f the v a ria tio n is elim inated by taking m ental age into a c
count. S i n c e b la c k s a n d whites of the sam e chrono lo gical ag e differ on
average in m e n ta l age, allow in g a co m p en satin g lag in c h ro n o lo g ic al age
will neutralize th e c o n tr ib u tio n o f m ental age. C o m p a re , say, the item
difficulties for 10-year-old blacks with that for 9-year-old or 8-year-old
whites. W h e n this is d o n e , the correlations in difficulty alm o st all rise
into the .9 ran ge a n d a b o v e . 1S
Bec au se item b i a s ordinarily defined has failed to materialize, rhe
co n c ep t has been e x te n d e d to en c o m p ass item characteristics that are
in tertwined w ith th e und erlying rationale for thinkin g that an item m e a
sures g. F or e x a m p l e , o n e researcher has found that the black-w h ite gap
is d im in ish e d for ite m s that call for the subject to identify the o n e false
response, c o m p a r e d ro item s requiring the subject to identify the o n e c o r
rect r e s p o n s e . 1*' Is this a m atter of bias, or a m atter of how well the two
types of ite m s tap th e c o n str u c t called in telligence? T h is in turn brings
Append be 5 633
us full circle to S p e a r m a n s hypothesis d isc u sse d in C h a p t e r 13, w hich

offers an in terp retative fram ework for e x p l a i n i n g s u c h differences.
M ore on O th er Potential Sources o f B ias
We turn now to o n e o f the least precisely h u t m o st c o m m o n ly argued

reasons for th in k in g th at tests are biased: T e s t s are a sort of game, an d ,
as in m ost gam es, it helps to h a v e played t h e t e s ti n g g a m e , it helps to
get c o a c h in g , an d ir helps to be playing o n t h e h o m e field. Privileged
groups get m ore p rac tic e a n d c o a c h in g t h a n u n d e rp riv ile g e d groups.
T h e y h av e a h o m e -c o u r t ad v a n tag e ; the te sts are g i v e n in familiar e i v
viron m en ts, ad m in istered by familiar kinds o f p e o p le . A m ajor part of
the racial d ifferen ces in test scores may be a t t r ib u t e d to these differences.
In this d isc u ssio n , we begin with c o a c h i n g a n d p r a c t ic e , then turn to
som e of the o th e r ways in which the te stin g s i t u a t i o n m ight influence
scores.
rKACTICI: AND COACHING. For I Q tests, c o a c h i n g a n d practice are n o t

a sig n ifican t issue because c o a c h in g a n d p r a c t ic e effects exist only u n
der c o n d itio n s th at virtually nev er apply. T o g e t a sizable practice effect
for an IQ test, it is necessary to use su b je c ts w h o h a v e never taken an
IQ -like test, a d m in iste r the identical test tw ic e , a n d d o s o quickly (prefer
ably within a few w e e k s ) .1' If the subjects fail to m e e t any of those c o n
ditions, the c h a n c e s o f finding a p ractice e f f e c t are sm all, and the size
o f any effect, if o n e is found, will be just a fe w p o in ts . C o a c h i n g effects
are e v e n h ard er to ob tain . W e are u nab le to id e n tify any I Q d ata in a n y
study, large or sm all, in which the results are c o m p r o m i s e d because the
IQ scores of part o f the sam p le h av e been o b t a i n e d a fte r this kind o f e x
p erien ce. T h a t s no t the way that IQ tests h a v e b e e n ad m inistered a n y
where to any sig n ifica n t sam p le at any t i m e d u r in g the history o f I Q
testing e x c e p t to th e sam ples used to assess p r a c tic e an d c o a c h in g e f
fects, an d s o m e tim e s to the subjects o f in t e n s i v e r e m e d i a l program s su c h
as th ose discussed in C h a p t e r 17.
T h e story reg ard in g p rac tic e and c o a c h i n g for su c h tests as the
S c h o la s tic A p t itu d e T est ( S A T ) , the L a w S c h o o l A d m issio n s T est
( L S A T ) , a n d the M e d ic al C o lle g e A d m i s s i o n s T e s t (M C JA T ) is m u c h
m ore c o n te n tio u s th an the story ab o u t IQ . M a n y p e o p le d o take th e s e
tests m ore th a n o n c e , m an y p eop le p ra c tic e fo r t h e m , an d many p e o p le
get e x te n siv e c o a c h in g . M oreover, th ese te sts are s u p p o s e d to be c o a c h -
a b le , insofar as they m easure the verbal, r e a s o n i n g , a n d analytic sk ills
634 Appendix 5
t h a t a g o o d ed u c atio n is supposed to en h an ce, and p ro lo n g ed ex p osure

to s u c h c o a c h i n g should produce better scores. O r to put it a n o t h e r way,
tw o s t u d e n t s with the sam e IQ should be able to get different L S A T and
M C A T sc o res if one stud en t has taken m ore appropriate courses and
stu d ie d h a rd e r than the other student. T h a t S A T scores d e c lin e d by a h
m o st h a l f a standard d e v iatio n from 1964 to 1980 strongly suggests that
s o m e t h i n g c o a c h a b le or negatively c o a c h a h le in this e x a m p le is
b e in g m e asu re d . In C h a p te r 17, we discuss the effects o f c o a c h i n g for
the S A T , w h ic h are real but also smaller and harder to o b ta in t h a n the
w idely a d v ertised claim s ot the c o ac h in g industry.
T h e belief that co ac h in g m ight exp lain part of the black-w h ite gap
o fte n rests o n a notion that, on the average, blacks receiv e less of the
p r a c tic e a n d co ac h in g that m ight h a v e elevated their scores th a n does
the a v e r a g e white. We h a v e already underm ined this n o tio n by sh o w
ing th a t the tests are biased against blacks neither predictively n o r in
te rm s o f p articu lar item difficulties. T h e re is, however, a literature that
bears m o re directly on this idea, by looking for an in teraction effect b e
tw e e n p r a c tic e or c o ac h in g and race.
It p r a c tic e and c o ac h in g e xp lain any portion of a group differen ce in
sc o res in th e population as a whole, then it necessarily follows that rep
r e s e n ta tiv e sam p les of those groups who are equally well p racticed and
well c o a c h e d will show a sm aller difference than is observed in the p o p
u la tio n at large. It is no t en o u gh that p ractice or c o a c h in g raises the
m e a n sc o re o f the lower-scoring group; it m ust raise its m e a n score more
than it raises the score o f the higher-scoring group.
S e v e r a l studies have in vestigated w hether this is found tor b lac k s and
w hites. In a well-designed study, representative sam p les o f blacks and
w h ite s are random ly div ided into two groups. T h e e x p e rim e n ta l black
a n d w h ite group s receive identical c o a c h in g (or p rac tic e), a n d the c o n
trol g ro u p s receiv e no trea tm en t at all. A t the end o f the ex p e rim e n t,
the in v e s tig a to r has four different sets ot results: test scores for c o a c h e d
b lac k s, u n c o a c h e d blacks, c o ac h e d whites, an d u n c o a c h e d whites.
T h e s e resu lts may be analyzed in three basic ways: O n e m ay c o m p a re
b la c k s o v e r a ll with whites overall, w hich will reveal the m ain effcct o f
race; o r the c o a c h e d sam ples overall with the u n c o a ch ed sam p les o v e r
all, w h ic h will reveal the m am effcct o f the coaching; or the way in which
th e effects o f c o ac h in g vary accord in g to the race o f the persons being
c o a c h e d , k n o w n as the interaction effect.
O n e stu d y found a statistically sign ificant differential response to
Appendix 5 635
practice, but n o t to direct in s tr u c tio n , o n a r e a s o n in g test, b e tw e e n

black and white c olleg e s t u d e n t s . 18 T h e d if f e r e n t ia l a d v a n tag e o f p r a c
tice for hlacks c o m p a red to w h ite s w a s a b o u t a n eigh th of the o v e ra ll
black-w hite g ap on this test. O t h e r stu d ie s h a v e failed to find ev en th is
m u ch o f a differential resp on se, o r th ey h a v e fou n d differential re
sponses in the o p p o site d ire c tio n , t e n d i n g t o in c r e a se the b lac k -w h ite
gap after p r a c tic e .19 T ak in g th e e v i d e n c e a s a w h ole, any differential
c o a c h in g an d p ractice effects by r a c e ( o r s o c i o e c o n o m i c status) is a t
m ost sporadic a n d sm all. If su c h a d i f f e r e n t ia l e ffec t exists, it is too sm a ll
to be replicated reliably. T h e s c a t t e r e d e v i d e n c e of a differential effect
is ab ou t as su p po rtiv e of a w h ite a d v a n t a g e fro m c o a c h i n g as o f a b lac k
ad va n tag e.
F.XAM1NKR I'FFECTS AND OTHER S IT U A T IO N A L V ARIA BLES. Is it p o ssib le

that d isa d v a n ta g e d groups c o m e to th e te s t with greater anxiety t h a n
c o n fid e n t m id dle-class stu d en ts, a n d th is m e n t a l state depresses th eir
scores? T h a t , w h en a b lac k s tu d e n t ta k e s a b u s ac ro ss tow n to an u n f a
m iliar n e ig h b o rh o o d a n d goes in to a t e s t i n g r o o m filled with white s t u
d ents an d o v erseen by a w h ite test su p e rv iso r, this situation h a s a n
in tim id atin g effect on p e r fo r m a n c e ? W h a t a b o u t the time lim its o n
tests? M ig h t these h a v e more p r o n o u n c e d e f f e c t s o n d isa d v an tag ed s t u
d ents th an o n test-wise m id d le - c la ss s t u d e n t s ? A l l are plausible q u e s
tions, but the an sw er to ea c h is th e s a m e : I n v e s t ig a t io n s to date g iv e n o
reaso n to believe that such c o n s i d e r a t i o n s e x p l a i n a nontrivial p o r t i o n
of the group differen ces in scores.
T h e race o f the ex a m in e r h a s b e e n th e s u b j e c t o f num erous stu d ie s.
O f those with ad e q u ate e x p e r i m e n t a l d e s ig n s , m o s t hav e showed n o n
sig n ifica n t effects; of the rest, th e e v i d e n c e is as stro n g that the p r e s
e n c e o f a white e x a m in e r reduces o v e r a l l b l a c k - w h it e difference as t h a t
a white e x a m in e r e x a c e rb a te s th e d i f f e r e n c e . 20 E x a m i n a ti o n s of t h e r e
sults o f tim e pressures fail to d e m o n s t r a t e e i t h e r t h a t blacks do b e tte r in
u n tim ed th a n in tim ed tests o r t h a t th e t e s t - t a k i n g p ersonal t e m p o of
blacks is different from that o f w h i t e s . 21 T e s t a n x i e t y h as been i n v e s t i
gated e x ten siv ely but, as in so m a n y o t h e r a s p e c t s o f this discussion, th e
relation sh ip tend s to be the o p p o s i t e of t h e e x p e c t e d one: To the e x t e n t
that test a n x ie ty affects p e r fo r m a n c e a t all, it s e e m s to help slightly. O n l y
a few studies h a v e sp ecifically a d d r e s s e d b l a c k - w h it e differences in test
anxiety; they h a v e sh ow n e ith e r n o n s i g n i f i c a n t results, or that the w h i t e
su bjects were slightly m ore a n x i o u s t h a n t h e b l a c k su b je c ts.'2
6 36 Appendix 5
BLACK E n g l i s h . L an g u ag e loom s larger. It is well established th at the

students from m a n y different cultural backgrounds tor w hom English is
a second l a n g u a g e tend to score better on the no n verb a l part of the test
than a verbal c o m p o n e n t g iv e n in E nglish .2 W h erea s this im b a la n c e
may be in d e p e n d e n t o f language for East A sian s ( J a p a n e se in J a p a n h av e
superior n o n v e r b a l scores ev en taking verbal test batteries d esig n ed in
Ja p an ese), it is a lso m anifest a m o n g L atin os, who do n o t otherw ise e x
hibit the c h a ra c te ristic East A s ia n v e rb aL n o n v erb al pattern. T h is su g
gests that s tu d e n ts w ho are taking the test in a sec o n d language suffer
som e d e c r e m e n t o f their scores.
It has b e e n a sm all step from this to hypothesize that, for practical
purposes, m a n y b lacks are taking the test in a second lan g u ag e , with
their first l a n g u a g e being the dialect known as black E n g lish , u b iq u i
tous in the b l a c k in ner city an d used to som e e x ten t by b lac k s o f broader
s o c io e c o n o m ic backgrou nds. Researchers hav e ap p ro ac h e d the issue in
several ways. First, the ev id en ce indicates that b lack c h ild ren w h o use
black English u n d erstan d standard English at least as well."4 A m ore d i
rect test c a m e in th e 1970s, w h en L. C . Q u ay had the S ta n fo r d -B in e t
translated in to b la c k dialect an d tested several sam p les with both rhe
original a n d the revised version. T h e studies produced n o e v id e n c e that
black stu d en ts in any o f the various test groups benefited (th e differ
ences in sc ores from the two tests generally am oun ted to less th a n on e
IQ p o in t).25 B u t th e most powerful d ata suggesting th at lan g uag e does
not exp lain th e black-w hite difference is provided by the e v id e n c e for
S p e a r m a n s h y p o th e sis presented in C h a p te r 13: If language were the
problem, t h e n b lac k s would be at the greatest d isa d v an tag e o n test items
that rely o n a k n o w led g e o f standard English and be at the least d is a d
vantage on test ite m s that use n o language at all. A s we discuss with re
gard to S p e a r m a n s hypothesis in C h a p t e r 13, this e x p e c ta tio n is
c o n trad ic ted by a large and con sisten t body of work. B lack populat ions
generally d o relativ ely better o n test items that are less saturated with g
and relatively worse on items m ore saturated w ith # , w h eth er the items
are verbal o r n o n v e rb a l.
The C o n tin u in g D eb ate
A lleg atio n s t h a t standardized tests are culturally biased still appear, an d

presumably th is a c c o u n t will fuel add itional ones. W h a t ab o u t all the
Appendix 5 6.37
articles a p p e a rin g in m any q u a rte rs m a k i n g th e s e c la im s? T h e y m a k e up

a varied lot, but typically c o n sist o f a l l e g a t i o n s th a t ignore the d ata. A
particularly striking e x a m p le w a s a l o n g a r tic le en titled IQ and S t a n
dard E n g lish , w h ich appeared in a t e c h n i c a l jo u r n a l a n d attrihuted th e
black-w hite IQ test differences to l a n g u a g e d ifficulties. T h e article w as
followed by four responses, plus hy a c o u n t e r s t a t e m e n t by th e au thor.
N e ith e r the orig in a l article n o r an y o f th e re s p o n s e s cited any o f th e
d ata d iscussed a b o v e . 26 T h e d e b a t e w a s c a rrie d o n entirely on the b asis
o f a rg u m e n ta t io n a b o u t the e x t e n t to w h i c h b la c k c u lture is m ore ora lly
based th an w hite culture. T h is r e a d i n e s s to th eo rize about w h at m ig h t
be true ab out black-w h ite d iffe re n c e s in rest sc o re s w hile ig n orin g the
pertin ent d a ta is c o m m o n .
O t h e r articles, c ited in the n o t e , h a v e d isc u sse d a variety o f ways in
w hich culture in teracts with h u m a n f u n c t i o n i n g , in tellec tu al and o t h
erwise.27 T h e m o v e m e n t s u r r o u n d in g H o w a r d G a r d n e r s c o n c e p t o f
m ultiple in te llig e n c e s (see the I n t r o d u c t i o n ) is on ly the best k n o w n o f
these new ways o f talking a b o u t in t e ll i g e n c e . B u t these d isc u ssio n s d o
not try to argue w ith the two c o r e s t a t e m e n t s t h a t we h av e m a d e : In th e
m ajor stan dardized tests, test it e m s f u n c t i o n in the sam e way for b o t h
blacks an d whites, a n d the tests results are sim ilarly p redictive for b la c k s
and whites, te n d in g to o v e rp r e d ic t b l a c k p e r f o r m a n c e rather t h a n un-
derpredic.t it.
In rhe p o p u la r m edia, the p e r s i s t e n c e o f b e lie f in cultural bias, we
think, is based o n a m isa p p r e h e n sio n . T o m a n y p eo p le, p ro o f th at tests
are u n biased seem s t a n ta m o u n t to p r o o f t h a t th e black-w h ite g a p re
flects genetic differen ces in in t e ll i g e n c e . S i n c e they reject the p o ssib il
ity th at g en etic d ifferences c o u ld be i n v o l v e d , rhe rests nmst be b iased .
O n e of the m ajo r purposes o f C h a p t e r 13 is to d isc red it bo th th e n o
tion th at real differen ces in i n t e ll i g e n c e m u st be g e n e tic ally fo u n d e d
and the assu m p tio n that a r o le for g e n e s m u st h a v e horrific c o n
sequences.
IS T H E B L A C K - W H I T E D I F F E R E N C E I N C O G N I T I V E A B I L I T Y
SH R IN K IN G ?
T h e text d iscusses the e v i d e n c e for c o n v e r g i n g b la c k an d w h ite test

scores on the N A E P ( N a t i o n a l A s s e s s m e n t o f E d u c a tio n Progress) a n d
638 Appendix 5
th e S A T . H e re , we sum m arize other sources of d ata about the two e t h

n ic p o p u la tio n s.
N a tio n a l H igh S ch ool Stu d ies, 1 9 7 2 an d 1980
In 1972 an d 1 9 8 0 , th e federal g ov ern m en t sponsored large-sample stu d

ies in ten d ed t o p ro v id e reliable n atio n al estim ates of the high school
p o p u la tio n . A s p art o f b o th studies, tests measuring vocabulary, reading,
a n d m a th e m a tic s were adm inistered to all participants. A lth o u g h not
t e c h n ica lly I Q tests, all three had h i g h # loadings. Furtherm ore, rhe tests
w ere virtually id e n tic a l for the two test ad m inistrations,1"''1an d the study
p roced u res in 1 9 8 0 were deliberately constructed to m axim ize the c o m
p arab ility of the tw o sam ples. In 1982, the sop h om ores from the 1980
s a m p le were tested as seniors. T h e table below summarizes the results
for the three test years by ethnic group. T h e black-white differen ce d i
m in ish ed o n w o o f th e three tests, but all ot the shrinkage c a m e ab out
bec au se w hite sc o res fell, no t because black scores rose. Indeed, black
scores also fell o n all three tests but (ex cep t in the case o f v o cabu lary),
by less th a n th e r e d u c tio n in white scores.
B la c k - W h ite D iffe r e n c e fo r H igh S c h o o l S e n io rs in

1 9 7 2 , 1 9 8 0 , an d 1 9 8 2
W hite-Black D ifferen ce, in S D s

1972 1980 1982
Vocabulary 1.00 .87 1.02
Reading .99 .85 .78
Math 1.09 .91 .86
Source: Rock er al. 1985, Appendixes R,C, E.
C o lleg e B o a rd A ch ievem en t Tests
T hh S A T . In C h a p t e r 1 3, we noted that the overall black-w hite gap in

S A T scores h a d n ar ro w e d betw een 1976 and 1993, from 1.16 to .88 s t a n
d ard d e v ia tio n in th e verbal portion o f the test an d from 1.27 to .92
stan d a rd d e v i a tio n in the m ath e m atic s portion of the test."' M o re d e
t a ile d b re a k d o w n s arc a v ailab le for the period 1980 to 1991, as show n
in the table below. T h e trend is consistently positive, with narrow ing
Appendix 5 639
R e d u c tio n s in th e B la c k - W h ite D i f f e r e n c e o n the

S c h o la stic A p titu d e an d A c h ie v e m e n t T e s t s , 1 9 8 0 - 1 9 9 1
W h ite-B lack D ifferen ce, in S D s

1980 1991 C hange
S A T V erbal 1 .09 .8 7 -.2 2
R e a d i n g su b s c o re .9 3 .83 -.1 0
V o c ab u lar y suh scorc 1.09 .83 -.2 6
SA 'T - M a th 1.10 .90 -.2 0
Test of s ta n d a r d w ritten E n g lish 1.11 .8 9 -.2 2
A c h i e v e m e n t tests
O verall average .8 3 .78 -.0 5
E n g lish C o m p o s i t i o n .73 .71 - .0 2
L ite ra ture .8 6 .7 6 -.1 0
A m e r i c a n H isto ry .6 9 .6 9 .00
E u ro p e a n H isto ry .81 .5 6 -.2 5
M ath 1 .75 .75 .00
M a t h 11 .9 8 .83 -.1 5
B iolog y .7 7 .6 8 -.0 9
C h e m istry .6 9 .7 4 + .05
Ph ysics .8 4 .7 4 -.1 0
French .33 .1 8 -.1 5
G erm an .6 4 .27 -.3 7
L atin .6 6 .25 - .4 1
Span ish .5 0 .3 5 -.1 5
Sourn : T hi (.Aillego Boards annual summaries of tost scoro by othnic.ity.
black-w hite d ifferen ces o f at least .1 s t a n d a r d d e v i a t io n units on th e

rests tor Literature. European History, M a t h II, Ph ysics, Fren c h , G e r
m an , L atin, and S p a n ish . T h e average s h r i n k a g e o f th e gap is .05 s t a n
dard d e v ia tio n unit. From further a n a ly s e s, we c o n c lu d e th at rhe
narrowing is n o t entirely ex p la in ed away by c h a n g e s in the r e p r e s e n ta
tiveness o f the b lack a n d white sam p les o f t e s t t a k e r s or by d e c li n in g
w hite scores.
To interpret the c h a n g e s in scores o n a c h i e v e m e n t tests, w h ich are
taken by sm all p ro p o rtio n s o f the S A T te st ta k e r s , we used th e m e a n
that the C o lle g e B o a rd provides o n the S A T V e r b a l a n d M a th scores for
eac h a c h i e v e m e n t test p o p u la tio n in e a c h year. T h e q u estio n we ask ed
was: For a g iv en a c h ie v e m e n t test, how d i d t h e p l a c e o f rhe av erage test
taker o n his ra c e s c o g n itiv e ability d i s t r i b u t i o n c h a n g e from 1980 to
640 Appendix 5
1 9 9 1 ? For exam ple, the average white taking rhe Literature achieve-
m e n t test in 1980 had an S A T Verbal score that put h im at th e 80th
p e rc e n tile o f white testees; in 1991, he was at the 8 5 th p ercentile. M e an -
while, the average black taking the Literature a c h ie v e m e n t test in 1980
h a d an S A T Verbal score that put him at the 88th p ercen tile of all black
S A T testees; in 1991, he was still at the 88 th percentile o f the b lac k d is
tribu tion. T h e difference betw een blacks and whites o n the Literature
a c h i e v e m e n t test narrowed during that period, but, g iv e n where rhe
b la c k s and whites were relative to the white and black S A T d istrib u
tion s, it seem s unlikely that the narrowing was caused by c h a n g e s in the
self-selectio n that artificially raised black scores relative to whites. Ten
o f the thirteen achievem ent tests tit this pattern. In on ly th ree cases
(E u ro p e a n History, Physics, and G e r m a n ) did changes in rhe S A T M a th
or Verbal scores indicate that the black p ool had b ec o m e differentially
m o re selective. Only in the case o f G e r m a n was this d ifferen ce large
e n o u g h to accoun t plausibly for m uch of the black im p ro v e m e n t rela
tive to whites.
T llE A C T T h e College B o a r d s m ajor c o m p etito r in the college e n

tra n c e exam in a tio n business is the A m e ric a n C o lle g e T estin g program ,
w h ich has also shown d ecreasin g differences between b lack a n d white
stu d e n ts w h o take the test, as summarized in the table below. R educ-
B lac k -W h ite D iffe re n c e in th e A C T , 1 9 7 0 - 1 9 9 1
W hite-Black D ifference, in S D s
1970 1991 C hange
E n g lish 1.14 .83 -.31
M ath .86 .77 -.0 9
Scien ce .97 .91 -.0 6
C om p osite 1.12 .96 -.1 6
N oim v: A C T 1991, T ab les 1 4; C o n g re ssio n a l B u dget C'tffice 1986, Fig. E-2.
tio n s in the gap occurred in all the subtests between 1970 an d 1991,
w ith by far the largest reduction o n rhe English subtest. T h e m a g n itu d e
o f the overall change in the c o m p o site is about h alf the size o f the re
d u c t io n observed in the black-w h ite difference on the S A T . L ike the
S A T p o p u latio n , the A C T s p o p u la tio n o f black test takers h as b een in
Appendix 5 641
creasing, suggestin g th a t the in c r e a s e s in s c o r e s are n o t the result of a

more selective test-tak in g p o p u la t io n .
T h e g r a d u a t e r e c o r d e x a m in a t io n ( G R E ) . T h e G R E is th e e q u i v a
lent of the S A T for ad m issio n to g r a d u a t e s c h o o l in the arts an d s c i
ences. N o r m an y p eop le in an y c o h o r t ta k e th e G R E , so th e s a m p le is
obviously highly self-selected a n d a ty p ic a l o f th e p o p u la tio n . In 1 9 8 8 ,
for e x a m p le , the n u m b e r o f w h ite G R E test ta k e r s r e p re se n te d o n ly 5.6
percent of the 22-year-old w h ite p o p u l a t i o n ; b l a c k test takers r e p r e
sented 2.3 percen t ot its 22-year-o ld p o p u l a t i o n . O n th e o th e r h a n d , th e
prop ortions in 1988 were about th e s a m e as th e y were in 1979. T h e s e lf
selection process has rem ain ed fairly s te a d y o v e r th e years, so it is w orth
at least m e n tio n in g the results, as s h o w n in t h e ta b le below. T h e G R E
B l a c k - W h i t e D i f f e r e n c e in t h e G R E , 1 9 7 9 - 1 9 8 8
W h i t e - B l a c k D i f f e r e n c e , in S D s
1979 1988 Change
V erbal 1.25 i.n -.1 2
M ath 1 .28 i.n -.1 5
A nalytical 1 .4 6 1.21 -.2 5
Souriv: Graduate Record Examination Board.
gap narrowed on ly slightly less t h a n t h a t fo r t h e S A T . A n o t h e r p o s itiv e

n ote is th at the narrow ing w as a c h i e v e d b e c a u s e b la c k sc o res rose m o re
than white scores, n o t b e c a u se w h ite s c o r e s w ere tailin g.
T h e s e results from n a t io n a l tests are e c h o e d in s ta te -le v e l d a ta fro m

T e xa s and N o r t h C a r o lin a , as re p o rte d in t h e C o n g r e s s i o n a l B u d g e t O f
fices survey o f trends in e d u c a t i o n a l a c h i e v e m e n t . 10 O v e r a ll, th e e v i
d en c e seem s c le a r b ey o n d a r e a s o n a b l e d o u b t : O n c o l le g e e n t r a n c e tests
and natio n al tests of e d u c a tio n a l p r o fic ie n c y , th e g a p b e tw e e n w h ite s
and blacks rem ain ed large in t o th e early 1 9 9 0 s , b u t it h ad b e e n n a r
rowing in the p re c e d in g d e c a d e or tw o. T h e o p t i m i s t m ay argue t h a t the
trend will c o n tin u e in d efin itely if i m p r o v e m e n t s in the e n v i r o n m e n t
an d ed u c atio n for A m e r i c a n b la c k s c a n be c o n t i n u e d . T h e p e ssim ist m ay
n o te that there seem s to h a v e b e e n little n a r r o w i n g s in c e the m i d - 19 8 0 s ,
as we observed in the te x t for C h a p t e r 13, a n d t h a t th e b la c k - w h ite I Q
642 Appendix 5
gap in rhe N L S Y seem s to be w iden ing rather narrowing in the next

g e n e ra tio n , as we discussed in C h a p t e r 15.
R U S H T O N O N R A C E D IF F E R E N C E S A N D R E P R O D U C T IV E
S T R A T E G IE S
C o n tr o v e r s y unp reced en ted ev en for the co n ten tio u s subject, of racial

d ifferen ces h a s erupted around the work o f J. Philippe R u sh to n , a
d e v e l o p m e n t a l psychologist at the U niversity o f W estern O n ta rio .
R u s h t o n argu es that the differences in the average in tellig en c e test
scores a m o n g East A sian s, blacks, and whites are not on ly primarily
g en etic but p art o f a c o m p lex o f racial differences that in clu d es such
v a riab les as b rain size,' genital size, rate of sexual m atu ratio n , length
o f the m en stru al cycle, frequency of sexual intercourse, gam ete
p rod u ctio n , sex ual h orm on e levels, the tendency to p roduce dizygotic
twins, m a rita l stability, infant mortality, altruism, law ab id ingn ess, and
m e n ta l h e a lth . For e ac h variable, R u sh to n h as c o n c lu d e d , the three
races M o n g o lo id s, C au c aso id s, and N eg ro id s fall in a certain order,
with the av e ra g e C au c aso id in the middle and the other two races on
o n e sid e or th e other. T h e ordering of the races, he further argues, has
an e v o lu tio n a r y basis; h ence these ordered racial differences m ust in
volve g enes.
To reac h h is conclusion, R u sh ton starts with rhe w ell-established
o b se rv a tio n in biology that species vary in their reproductive strategies.
S o m e sp e c ie s p rod u ce many offspring (per parent) of which only a sm all
fraction su rvive; others produce sm all num bers o f offspring with rela
tively h igh survival rates. T h e in v o lv em en t of parents in their offsprings
h e alth a n d d e v e lo p m e n t (w hich biologists call parental in v e s tm e n t )
tends to be h igh for species h av in g few offspring and high survival rates
and low for th o se em ploying the other strategy (m an y offspring an d low
survival r a te s). M any other sp ecies differences are c o n c o m it a n t with this
fu n d a m e n ta l on e, accord in g to standard biological doctrine.
R u s h t o n s thesis is that this standard biological principle m ay be a p
plied w ith in o u r own species. R u sh to n acknow ledges that h u m a n be
ings are a s a species far out alon g the c on tin u u m o f low rep rod u ctio n ,
high o ffsp rin g survival, and h igh p aren tal in vestm ent, but h e argues that
the o r d e r in g o f the races o n the m any variables he has identified c a n be
e x p la in e d as the result of evolutionary differences in how far o u t the
races are. A c c o r d i n g to R u shton , the average M o n g o lo id is tow ard one
Appendix 5 643
end of the c o n ti n u u m of re p r o d u c tiv e s t r a t e g ie s the few offspring, h ig h

survival, and h igh p aren tal i n v e s t m e n t e n d the av e rag e N eg ro id is
shifted toward th e oth e r en d , a n d th e a v e r a g e C a u c a s o i d is in th e
m iddle.
R u sh to n p ain ts with a hroad b ru sh , fo c u s i n g o n th e m ajor racial c at-
egories rather th a n the d ozens o f m o r e fin e ly d ra w n rep rod uctiv ely
isolated h u m a n p o p u la tio n s t h a t m ig h t test his theory more c o n
clusively. But bey o n d that, his th e sis raises n u m e r o u s q u estio n s m oral,
pragm atic, and scien tific. M a n y c ritic s a t t a c k th e theory on scien tific,
not just moral, grounds. T h e y q u e s t i o n w h e t h e r R u s h t o n has really
show n that the races are c o n s i s te n tl y o r d e r e d in th e way he says they
are, or w hether a biological th e o r y t h a t was m e a n t to exp la in sp e c ie s
differences can be properly a p p lie d to g r o u p s w ith in a single species, or
w hether the e v id e n c e for g e n e tic in flu e n c e s o n his variab les stan d s up.
R u sh to n h as resp o n d ed to his c ritic s w ith in cr e asin g ly detailed an d c o n
v in c in g em pirical reports o f th e r a c e d if f e r e n c e s in s o m e of the traits on
his list, an d he cites p r e e m in e n t b i o l o g ic a l a u th o r ity for his use o f the
c o n c e p t of rep rod u c tiv e strategies. H e h a s s t r e n g t h e n e d the c ase for
con sisten tly ordered race d iffe re n ce s, a t least for s o m e o f the variab les
he discusses, sin ce his first fo r m u l a t i o n of t h e theory' in 1985. N e v e r
theless, the theory rem ain s a l o n g way from c o n fi r m a tio n .
W e c a n n o t at p resen t say w h o is m o r e n e a rly righ t as a m atter ot s c i
ence, R u sh to n or his c ritics. 2 H o w e v e r , R u s h t o n s work is not that o f a
c rac k p o t or a bigot, as m any o f h is c r itic s are g iv e n to charging. N o r are
we sy m p a th etic w ith R u s h t o n s a c a d e m i c c o l le a g u e s or rhe p o litic ian s
in O n ta r i o who h a v e called for h is p e r e m p to r y d ism issa l from a ten u red
professorship. S e t t i n g aside w h e t h e r h is work is tim ely or w orthw hile
a ju d g m e n t we are lo ath to m a k e u n d e r a n y c ir c u m s t a n c e s it is plainly
scien ce. H e is nor alo n e in s e e k i n g a n e v o lu t i o n a r y e x p la n a tio n o f rhe
observed d ifferences a m o n g th e r a c e s .1 ' A s sc ie n c e , there is n o t h in g
wrong with R u s h t o n s work in p r in c i p l e ; we e x p e c t th at time will tell
w hether it is right or wrong in fac t.
Appendix 6
Regression Analyses from

Chapter 14
T h is a p p e n d ix p resents rhe regression a n a ly s e s underlying the p r e s e n

ta tio n in C h a p t e r 14-
T h e results in C h a p t e r 14 and in this a p p e n d i x are based o n sep arate
regressions for e a c h of the three e t h n i c g ro u p s in q uestio n (b la c k ,
L atin o , and w hite). T h i s proced u re was c h o s e n in preference to a s i n
gle regression e n te rin g ethnicity as a n o m i n a l v a ria b le so th at the r e l a
tionships would no t he c o n str a in e d to a s in g le slope. T h e regressions
used the entire N L S Y sam ple, w ith e x c l u s i o n s as noted for specific
analyses, ap p ly in g 1990 sam ple w eights.
L O G IS T IC R E G R E S S IO N S
A ll rhe in dicators in C h a p t e r 14 e x c e p t for th o se in volvin g in c o m e are

binary variables, a n d the m od e of a n a ly s is is logistic regression. T h e in
terpretation of logistic regressions is d is c u s s e d in A p p e n d i x 4-
T h e d ata tables use short labels for th e in d ic ato rs. T h e full d e s c r ip
tion o f e ac h in d ic ator and a sso ciate d c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f the analysis are
show n in T ab le 1.
T able 2 first su m m arizes the results, by e t h n i c group, for four sets o f
regressions: w h en age (z A g e ) is th e o n ly in d e p e n d e n t variable, w h en
age an d IQ ( z A F Q T ) are in d e p e n d e n t v a r ia b le s , w h e n age an d p aren ta l
S E S ( z S E S ) are in d ep en d en t variab les, a n d w h e n all three are en tered
as in d ep en d en t variables. T h r e e b a sic q u e s t i o n s are then e x a m in e d :
1. H o w m u c h do e th n ic d iffe re n ce s c h a n g e w h e n IQ is tak e n in to
ac c o u n t?
2. H ow m u c h d o e th n ic d iffe re n c e s c h a n g e w h e n parental S E S is
taken into a c c o u n t?
3. W h a t are the c o m p a ra tiv e roles o f I Q a n d p aren ta l S E S ?
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Appendix 6 647
B ecause zA ge, z A F Q T , and z S E S are all e x p r e s s e d as stan d a rd scores

with m e a n o f zero and standard d e v i a t io n o f 1, the in tercept for th e
e q u atio n (a b b re v ia te d Int. in the ta b le s) r e p r e se n ts the e x p e c te d v alu e
when those variab les are set at rheir r e sp e c tiv e m ean s. T h e c o e ffic ie n ts
for z A F Q T an d z S E S are giv en so t h a t you m a y e x a m in e the slo p es a s
sociated with them .
T h e sum m ary c o lu m n s (Tab le 3) sh o w th e c o m p u t e d p rob a b ilities o f
the d e p e n d e n t variab le when the in d e p e n d e n t variab les are s e t at their
m eans.
Incom e A n alyses
Following the tables show ing the logistic regressions, we p resen t the
d etailed results o f the ordinary least squares regression s used to estim ate
differences in in co m e by ethnicity ( T a b le 4) B e c a u s e ed u c atio n is such an
im portant causal factor in income, w e show a n a ly s e s in which y ears o f e d
u cation (as of the 1990 interview) rep laces I Q a s an in d ep en d en t variable.
T h e first set of m o d els shows th e p a r a m e t e r s for wages o f full-tim e,
year-round workers by eth n ic group. T h e s a m p l e for this an a lysis c o n
sisted o f all p erson s in the N L S Y w h o r e p o r te d working for fifty-two
weeks in 1989, had a reported wage g reater t h a n 0 (a handful o f a p p a r
ently self-em ployed p ersons who re p o rte d w o r k in g fifty-two w eeks re
ported no in c o m e ) , h ad an identified o c c u p a t i o n , an d had v a lid sc ores
for IQ, parental S E S , and e d u c a tio n a l level a s of 1990. T h e se c o n d set
of m odels show s th e p aram eters for total fa m ily in c o m e from all sources.
T h e sam p le for this analysis in clud es all p e r s o n s w ith valid sc o res o n th e
in d e p e n d e n t variables, exclud ing o n ly th o se w h o reported b e i n g ou t o f
the labor force in 1989 or 1990 b e c a u se of e n r o l l m e n t in sc h o o l.
T able 5 show s the results when IQ , p a r e n t a l S E S , and e d u c a tio n are
all entered as in d e p e n d e n t variables. E d u c a t i o n is expressed a s th e h i g h
est degree a tt a in e d as o f 1990 ( n o h ig h s c h o o l d ip lom a , h i g h sc h o o l
d ip lom a , asso c ia te degree, b a c h e l o r s d egree, p ro fessio n a l d eg ree).
T ab le 6 show s the analysis o f w a g e s by e t h n i c it y and o c c u p a t io n a l
g rou p in g based o n the su b je c ts o c c u p a t i o n in th e 1 990 in terview ( t h e
v ariab le labeled 0 c c 9 0 ), using th e 1 9 7 0 U . S . C e n s u s O c c u p a t i o n a l
C la ssific a tio n S y ste m . T h e softw are u sed for th ese analyses, J M P 3.0,
treats n o m in a l v a riab les differently from th e c o n v e n t i o n in m a n y o th e r
regression p ac k ag es. S e e the in tro d u c tio n to A p p e n d i x 4 for d e ta ils a n d
an e xam p le.
Table 2 C oefficients for Logistic R egression A n alysis in C hapter 14
Independent Controlling for Age Controlling for Age and IQ Controlling for Age and Parental SE S
Variables (zAge) (zAge, zAFQT) (zAge, zSES)
White Black Latino White Black Latino White Black Latino
Indicator Int. Int. Int. Int. IQ Int. IQ Int. IQ Int. SE S Int. SES Int. SE S
Sample: N L S Y su b je cts
High school dropout -2.271 -1.598 -1.080 -2.943 -1.995 -3.676 -1.722 -3.046 -2.031 -2.50.3 -1.266 -2.245 -.734 -1.949 -.654
Bachelor's degree -1.018 -2.089 -2.223 -2.004 2.127 -1.078 1.943 -1.927 1.987 -1.644 1.524 -1.665 1.058 -1.6.34 .90S
High-IQ occupation -2.871 -3.550 -3.335 -3.909 1.532 -2.997 1.705 -3.206 1.379 -3.410 1.036 -3-373 1.194 -2.892 .736
In poverty -2.560 -1.066 -1.512 -2.671 -.957 -2.128 -1.046 -2.274 -.898 -2.607 -.661 -1.571 -.623 -2.201 -.528
Unemployed 1 mo. (men) -2.714 -1.352 -1.819 -2.127 -.318 -1.706 -.315 -2.079 -.409 -2.139 -.189 -1.648 -.350 -2.026 -.213
Married by 30 1.336 -.193 .311 .122 1.070 -.116 1.329 -.238 1.88 -.036 1.132 .001
Ever on welfare (all women) -1.911 -.053 -.856 -1.994 -1.191 -.853 -.902 -1.737 -1.060 -1.922 -.907 -.494 -.605 -1.493 -.528
Ever on welfare (poor mothers) .487 1.287 .592 .250 -.387 1.066 -.186 .169 -.314 .442 -.021 1.363 .083 .223 -.203
Ever in jail (men) -3.697 -1.895 -2.800 -3.917 -1.067 -3.015 -.954 -3.421 -.657 -3.758 -.727 -2.154 -314 -.3.131 -.229
Yes" on MCV index .026 -1.362 -.824 -.061 .727 -.744 .720 -.220 .962 -.045 .555 -1.040 .467 -.442 .355
Sample: Children of NLSY mothers

Bom out of wedlock -2.008 .504 -1.190 -2.153 -.774 .030 -.479 -1.594 -.359 -2.103 -.622 .262 -.278 -1.506 -.191
Low birth weight -3.326 -2.191 -2.888 -3.378 -.387 -2.668 -.428 -3.004 -.128 -3.335 -.168 -2.214 -.013 -2.877 .002
In poverty 1st 3 yrs. -2.287 .151 -.856 -2.693 -1.608 -1.799 -2.036 -2.239 -1.554 -2.860 -1.608 -.862 -1.189 -1.901 -.752
Ever in nonparental care -5.288 -3.405 4 -369 -5.321 -.454 -3.548 -.165 -4.257 .048 -5.258 -.207 -3.314 .074 4-503 -.143
Worst decile: HOME index -2.578 -.960 -1.317 -2.816 -.768 -1.653 -.647 -2.118 -.703 -2.747 -.588 -1.451 -.523 -1.867 -.347
Friendliness index -2.824 -1.032 -1.872 -2.911 -.707 -1.745 -.713 -3.062 -1.168 -2.882 -.557 -1.117 -.118 -2.418 -.414
Difficulty index -2.508 -1.272 -2.115 -2.484 -.344 -1.922 -.664 -3.249 -1.110 .000 -.341 -1.520 -.336 -2.748 .458
Motor & Social Dev. index -2.626 -2.300 -2.054 -2,619 -.426 -3.100 -.756 -2.540 -.492 -2.614 -.366 -2.597 -.344 -2.543 -.348
Behavioral Problems index -1.958 -2.052 -2.066 -2.067 -. 368 -2.894 -.700 -2.560 -.412 -2.039 -.269 -2.234 -.191 -2.360 -.173
Any developmental index -2.193 -1.888 -1.935 -2.239 -.401 -2.620 -.651 -2.471 -.494 -2.226 -.326 -2.055 -.187 -2.298 -.244
PPVT (IQ) -2.575 .202 .139 -2.224 -.968 -.693 -.942 -.831 -1.260 -2.603 -.546 -.148 -.547 -.187 -.691
Table 2 ( C o n t d) C o e f f ic ie n t s fo r L o gistic R e g r e s s io n A n a l y s i s in C h a p t e r 14
Controlling For Age, IQ, and Parental SES

Independent Variables (Independent variables: zAge, zAFQT, zSES)
White Black Latino
Int. SES Int. IQ SES Int. IQ SES
Indicator IQ
Sample: NLSY subjects
-2.961 -1.705 -.626 -3.930 -1.612 -.424 -3.170 -1.944 -.160
High school dropout
-2.360 1.854 1.047 -.971 1.718 .611 -1.797 1.827 .242
Bachelors degree
-4.065 1.356 .487 -2.987 1.382 6.90 -3.136 1.287 .133
High-IQ occupation
-2.658 -.818 -.274 -2.279 -.904 -.368 -2.489 -.752 -.273
In poverty
-.305 -.027 -1.809 -.214 -.281 -2.119 -.373 -.060
Unemployed 1 mo. (men) -2.124
-.102 -.187 .282 .167 -.099 1.126 -.161 .073
Married by 30 1.354
-.932 -.516 -.967 -.725 -.377 -1.930 -.910 -.266
Ever on welfare (all women) -1.983
.258 -.445 .116 1.175 -.235 .146 .000 -.235 -.169
Ever on welfare (poor mothers)
-3.933 -.949 -.234 -3.034 -.939 -.048 -3.388 -.683 .049
Ever in jail (men)
.597 .274 -.672 .614 .248 -.221 .963 -.002
Yes on M C V index -.083
Sample: Children of NLSY mothers

-.344 -.034 -.414 -.149 -1.661 -.307 -.086
Born out of wedlock -2.178 -.614
-.406 .039 -2.608 -.487 .142 -2.957 - . 168 .064
Low birth weight -3.378
-1.198 -2.142 -1.725 -.737 -2.618 -1.316 -.420
In poverty 1st 3 yr.s. -3.009 -1.141
.034 -3.489 -.225 .146 -4.432 .171 -.203
Ever in nonparental care -5.321 -.471
-.312 -1.870 -.501 -.392 -2.238 -.616 -.149
Worst decile: HOME index -2.857 -.628
-2.926 -.552 -.301 -1.717 -.745 .078 -3.075 -1.157 -.017
Friendliness index
-2.493 -.223 -.237 -1.998 -.590 -.188 -3.326 -1.046 -.097
Difficulty index
-2.620 -.323 -.220 -3.169 -.700 -.145 -2.721 -.352 -.227
Motor -Si Social Dev. index
-2.101 -.300 -.159 -2.893 -.700 .000 -2.597 -.337 -.044
Behavioral Problems index
-.310 -.191 -2.618 -.652 .002 -2.547 -.436 -.097
Any developmental index -2.256
-2.258 -.875 -.220 -.845 -.837 -.374 -.949 -1.062 -.344
PPVT UQ)
Table 3 Expected Probabilities for Logistic Regression Analyses in Chapter 14
W h e n A g e and I Q W h e n A g e an d P a re n t a l W h e n A g e , I Q , and
W hen A g e Is Average A r e Average S E S A r e Average Parental S E S are Average
(zAge = 0 ) (zAge = 0 , z A F Q T = 0 ) ( z A g e = o, z S E S = 0 ) (zAge = 0, z A F Q T = 0, z S E S - 0 )
Indicator W hite B la ck Latino W hite B la ck L a tin o White B lack L atino White B la ck L a tin o
Sample: N L S Y subjects
High school dropout 9.4% 16.8% 25.4% 5.0% 2.5% 4.5% 7.6% 9.6% 12.5% 4.9% 1.9% 4.0%
Bachelors degree 26.5 11.0 9.8 11.9 25.4 12.7 16.2 15.9 16.3 8.6 27.5 14.2
High-IQ occupation 5.4 2.8 3.4 2.0 4.8 3.9 3.2 3.3 5.3 1.7 4.8 4.2
In poverty 7.2 25.6 18.1 6.5 10.6 9.3 6.9 17.2 10.0 6.5 9.3 7.7
U nem ployed 1 mo. (m en) 10.2 20.6 14.0 10.7 15.4 11.1 10.5 16.1 11.7 10.7 14.1 10.7
Married by 30 77.7 54.2 76.1 79.2 57.7 74.5 79.1 54.7 75.6 79.5 57.0 75.5
Ever on welfare (all women) 12.9 48.7 29.8 12.0 29.9 15.0 12.8 37.9 18.3 12.1 27.5 12.7
Ever on welfare (poor mothers) 61.9 78.4 64.4 56.2 74.4 54.2 60.9 79.6 55.6 56.4 76.4 50.0
Ever in jail (m en) 2.4 13.1 5.7 2.0 4.7 3.2 2.3 10.4 4.2 1.9 4.6 3.3
Yes on M C V index 50.6 20.4 30.5 48.5 32.2 44.5 48.9 26.1 39.1 47.9 33.8 44.5
Sample: Children o f N L S Y mothers

B o m out of wedlock 11.8 62.3 23.3 10.4 50.7 16.9 10.9 56.5 18.2 10.2 49.2 16.0
Low birth weight 3.5 10.1 5.3 3.3 6.5 4.7 3.4 9.9 5.3 3.3 6.9 4.9
In poverty 1st 3 yrs. 9.2 53.8 29.8 6.3 14.2 9.6 5.4 29.7 13.0 4.7 10.5 6.8
Ever in nonparental care 0.5 3.2 1.3 0.5 2.8 1.4 0.5 3.5 1.1 0.5 3.0 1.2
Worst decile: H O M E index 7.1 27.7 21.1 5.6 16.1 10.7 6.0 19.0 13.4 5.4 13.4 9.6
Friendliness index 5.6 26.3 13.3 5.2 14.9 4.5 5.3 24.7 8.2 5.1 15.2 4.4
Difficulty index 7.5 21.9 10.8 7.7 12.8 3.7 50.0 17.9 6.0 7.6 11.9 3.5
Motor & Social Dev. index 6.7 9.1 11.4 6.8 4.3 7.3 6.8 6.9 7.3 6.8 4.0 6.2
Behavioral Problems index 12.4 11.4 11.2 11.2 5.2 7.2 11.5 9.7 8.6 10.9 5.3 6.9
A ny developmental index 10.0 13.1 12.6 9.6 6.8 7.8 9.7 11.4 9.1 9.5 6.8 7.3
P P V T (IQ) 7.1 55.0 53.5 9.8 33.3 30.3 6.9 46.3 45.3 9.5 30.0 27.9
T a b le 4 In c o m e A n a ly s e s in C h a p te r 1 4 (in 1 9 9 0 d o lla rs)

Model 111 Model IV Model V
Model I Model II
(zAge, zA FQ T) (zAge, zAFQ T, zSES) (zAge, zEduc90) (zAge, zEduc90, zSES)
Independent (zAge)
White Black Latino White Black Latino White Black Latino
Variables White Black Latino White Black Latino
iages fo r) ull-rime y< 1989
2 5 ,1 5 9 2 5 ,3 2 9 2 5 ,3 3 9 26,0 0 2 2 6 ,2 9 2 20 ,9 6 2 2 4 ,0 9 2 2 6 ,0 4 8 2 1 ,8 4 1 2 5 ,6 8 7
Intercept 2 7 ,3 7 2 2 0 ,9 9 4 2 3 ,4 0 9 2 5 ,5 4 6 25,001
94 9 2 ,1 4 4 2 ,6 3 6 1,3.33 2 ,1 8 8 2 ,632 1,377 2 ,4 6 3
Age 2 ,8 1 4 1,354 2,163 1,968 861 1,896 2,057
5 ,6 6 0 5 ,4 5 4 4 ,0 1 8 4 ,8 5 0 4 ,8 7 5 3 ,1 6 2
IQ 1,341 1,626 2 ,0 0 0
1,753 1,420 1,352
P aren tal S E S
5 ,395 4 ,7 9 4 2 ,7 5 5 4 ,7 9 0 4 ,1 4 0 1 ,9 3 4
E d u c a tio n as o f 1990
Dependent variable: Total family income, 1 9 8 9

38,623 3 7 ,7 2 3 41,051 4 0 ,1 9 4 30,511 3 7 ,5 6 5 39 ,4 5 3 33,841 4 0 ,0 0 9
In tercep t 4 1 ,5 5 8 2 9 ,8 8 0 3 5 ,5 1 4 3 9 ,2 2 5 3 6 ,4 3 2 3 9 ,6 8 9
88 8 3 ,0 1 0 2,921 1,415 3 ,5 5 3 2 ,963 1 ,2 9 4 3 ,7 8 8
A ge 3 ,3 2 6 1,576 3 ,6 2 8 2 ,049 805 2 ,7 0 9 2 ,3 5 4
8 ,3 3 2 8 ,5 9 0 8 ,8 7 0 5 ,936 5 ,8 0 4 7 ,4 8 8
IQ 4 ,2 1 7 6 ,0 2 2 3 ,1 0 9
5 .097 5 ,8 1 7 2 ,2 2 3
P aren tal S E S
8 ,313 7 ,933 7 ,7 6 4 6 ,3 9 4 5 ,3 4 6 6 ,3 6 0
E d u c a tio n as o f 1990
M inority income as a percentage of white income

1 00.0% 102.7% 7 9 .7 % 9 1 .6 % 8 3 .8 % 9 8 .6 %
A n n u a l w ages 7 6 .7 % 8 5 .5 % 97-9'% 98.5 %
9 2.9' % 101.2 % 9 7 .7 % 106.3% ) 75.9% 9 3 .5 % 8 5 .8 % 1 0 1 .4 %
F am ily in co m e 7 1 .9 % 8 5 .5 %
For persons not out o f labor force because of school in 1989 or 1990.
652 Appendix 6
T ab le 5 In c o m e A n a ly s e s in C h a p te r 1 4 (in 1 9 9 0 d o lla r s ), by D e
gree A t t a in e d
Dependent Variable: A nnual Wages for Full-Time,

Year-Round Workers, 19R9 Total Family Income''
In d epen d en t V ariab le s W hite B la ck L atin o W hite B la ck Latin o
Intercept 26,994 27,048 26,474 40,813 38,050 41,271
Age 2,338 787 2,207 2,58? 946 3,091
IQ 3,082 3,802 2,507 3,025 4,247 4,136
Parental S E S 914 840 1,248 3,648 5,191 2,042
Highest degree attained
Less th a n high school - 4 ,9 9 2 -3 ,6 8 8 - 1 ,5 8 8 -9 ,74 3 - 4,18 1 -9,461
(J E D - 2 ,6 2 2 - 3 ,9 5 0 -3 ,0 3 9 -5 ,20 2 - 4 ,1 5 9 - 7 ,6 8 3
High school diploma - 2 ,6 0 2 -3 ,9 4 4 -1,151 -2,78 9 - 2 ,8 1 7 - 1 ,2 6 9
B ach elors degree 3,329 734 2,938 4,286 4,562 10,506
G rad u ate degree 6,887 10,848 2,840 13,448 6,795 7,907
Minority income as a
percentage of white income 100.2% 98.1% 9 3 .2 % 10 1 .1 %
' For persons not m il ot labor force bee ;iuse ot school in 1989 or 1990.
S a m p l e sizes tor th e different o c c u p a tio n s analyzed in T ab le 6 below

are as follow:
W h ite B la c k L a tin o
P r o fe ssio n a l/te c h n ic a l 605 143 129
M an agers/ad m i n is t ra tors 462 110 103
C l e r ic a l w orkers 473 260 172
S a l e s workers 163 34 30
C r a f t a n d kin d red workers 370 113 106
T ran sp o rr o p e r a t iv e s 95 55 40
O t h e r o p e r a t iv e s 231 143 67
S e r v i c e w ork ers 289 218 95
U n s k i ll e d laborers 98 78 40
F arm w o rk ers 22 4 12
B ec au se o f t h e sm a ll n u m b e rs of farmworkers, thar category is om itted

from th e tab le. N o t e , how ev er, that farmworkers were included in the
actual re g re ssio n e q u a t io n ; h en c e the coefficients for the n o m in a l o c
c u p a tio n c a te g o r ie s will n o t sum to zero.
o
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d o llars)
Table 6 Income A nalyses in Chapter 14 (in 1990
Appendix 7
The Evolution of Affirmative

Action in the Workplace
M u c h o f the cu rren t d e b ate a b o u t a f f i r m a t iv e a c tio n in em p lo y m en t

takes p lace in ig n o ra n c e o f the o rig in a l o b j e c t i v e s o f affirmative action
and the ways in w h ic h a n t id is c r i m i n a ti o n law h a s evolved. B ec au se we
believe that returning to the orig in a l i n t e n t i o n o f affirm ative action is
a key to progress in so cial policy o n m a n y fr o n ts an d because our r e c
o m m e n d a tio n se e m s so radical in th e p r e v a i l i n g c o n te x t, this ap p e n d ix
presents a full disc u ssio n o f the n a t u r e o f th e o r i g in a l ob jec tives and the
e v o lu tio n as it p e rtain s sp ecifically to e m p l o y m e n t tests.
A ffirm ativ e a c tio n in the w o r k p l a c e , a s d istin gu ish ed from the
broader an d old er civil rights m o v e m e n t , srarts w ith Title V l l of the
C iv il R ig h ts A c t o f 1964- Title V II laid d o w n p rin c ip les o f fair em ploy-
m en t practice as regards race, re lig io n , n a t i o n a l origin, and sex, and it
created the E q ual E m p lo y m e n t O p p o r t u n i t i e s C o m m i s s io n ( E E O C ) to
ad m in ister and p r o m o te them . B e s i d e s T i t l e V II (as am en d ed over the
years), affirm ative a c tio n in the w o r k p l a c e c o m p r i s e s subsequent acts of
C o n g r e ss (and state legislatures), p r e s i d e n t i a l e x e c u tiv e orders, rulings
by the E E O C a n d o th e r b ra n c h es o f g o v e r n m e n t , an d landm ark court
cases. T h e basic in te n t o f all o f th is e n e r g e t i c p o lic y m a k in g h a s b een to
m ak e w o rk places fairer to p eo p le fro m o p p r e s s e d or m istreated groups.
A s desirable as th at goal may s e e m t o j u s t a b o u t anyone, a clear n o
tion either o f w h at it m ean s or h o w t o a c c o m p l i s h it does n o r em erge
from the d o c u m e n ts o f this e n o r m o u s ( a n d s p r e a d in g ) battleground of
law, regulation, litigation, and c o m m e n t a r y . T h e g o o d news is that m an y
issues o f fair e m p lo y m e n t p rac tic e n e e d n o t c o n c e r n us h e r e .1 But we
c a n n o t av oid lo o k in g at how T itle V II ( a n d its e la b o ra tio n s) dealt w ith
the use o f ability tests in the s e l e c t io n o r p r o m o t i o n o f em ployees. A l
th o u gh the tests are g iv e n to in d iv id u a ls, t h e g ro u p s of w h ich they are
656 Appendix 7
a p a rr m ay av e rag e h igh or low c om pared to the p opulation as a whole;

as it h a p p e n s , so m e o f the groups w ho average low are p ro te c te d from
u n fa ir e m p lo y m e n t p ra c tic e s by Title VII. H e n c e the g o v e r n m e n t gets
in to the business o f regulating em p lo y m en t testing.
T h e ra m ific a tio n s of ev en th e narrow issue of e m p lo y m en t test reg-
illatio n h a v e ranged so far and wide that em ploym en t testing h as b e
c o m e a new specialty in the c reation and practice o f law an d in
g o v e r n m e n t reg u lation u n d ream ed of by the Founders. T h o u s a n d s , p er
h a p s m illions, o f legislative an d bureaucratic m an hours h av e been l a v
ished on it'. T h o u s a n d s of cases h av e been argued in c o u rt.121 D oub tless
m a n y m ore c ases h a v e not been argued, as the specter of legal a c tio n
h as sh a p e d in n um erable d ec ision s in corporate offices and bo ardroom s.
T h e sta n c e of the g o v e rn m e n t and the courts has increasingly b een to
distrust tests th a t p rod uce group differences, as if they presum e that, in
the ab se n c e o f illegal discrim in ation , the groups should be equal.
T H E E V O L U T I O N O F T I T L E V II
T itle VII of rhe 1964 A c t specifically did not prohibit rhe use of e m
p lo y m en t tests, provided that the tests were not designed, in ten d ed or
u se d to d isc rim in ate against p eo p le because o f their race, color, reli
g io n , sex, or n atio n al origin. It said n o th in g about group differences, a l
th o u g h it was clear in 1964 rhat ability tests would result in
d isp ro p o r tio n ate ly fewer h igh scores for at least some of the g rou p s ot
p e o p le p rotected from d isc rim in atio n by the act. S o m e of the a c t s p r o
p o n e n t s believ ed th at som e o f the group differences in test scores were
b e in g used as a p retex t for unfair discrim in ation ; for that reason the act
in clu d ed a p roviso regarding the tests. T h e hope was that Title VJ1 would
prom ptly erad ica te this unfair use o f tests. It was left to the EEOC.' to
c o m e up with the m ean s o f d o in g so.
In 1966, the EEOC" form ulated rhe first o f a series of guidelines. A n
e m p l o y m e n t test, it ruled, had to h av e a proven power to m easure a p er
s o n s ability to perform a p articular job or class of jobs. 1 It was not
e n o u g h , said th e guideline, th at the test be drawn up by p rofessional
testers; ir also had to h a v e so m e practical im port som e jo b related-
n ess, in the e v o lv in g ja rg o n o f the field. W hy this particular gu id eline?
T h e an sw er is rhat staff for rhe newly launched E E O C had q uickly b e
c o m e c o n v in c e d that som e em ployers were, as an tic ip ate d, h id in g b e
Appendix 7 657
hind the c re d e n tia ls o f professional testers to use ability tests th a t h ad

little b e a rin g o n jo b p e rfo rm an c e , an d t h a t th e y were doing so to d i s
c rim in ate ag a in st b la c k s.1 T h e g u id elin e was a n attem p t to p ierce the
ven eer o f p rofessional resp ectability a n d th ereb y correct this v io la tio n
o f law a n d p rin c ip le, as the E E O C saw it.
T h e criterion o f jo b related ness did n o t r e s o lv e the uneasiness a b o u t
testing for the E E O C . A b ility testin g for e m p l o y m e n t had, after all, b e
c o m e a n issue u nd er T itle V II bec au se v a rio u s groups o f people g et d if
ferent av erag e scores. T h is was the h e a rt o f the matter, an d new
guidelines laid d o w n in 1970 ad d ressed it frontally. For the first time,
E E O C gu id elines m e n tio n e d the issue o f d isp ro p o r tio n a te success o f d if
ferent group s on a n y giv en te st.1 W h e n a rest adversely affects (m ore
jargon , a lo n g with disp arate i m p a c t or a d v e rse im p ac t ) m em b ers o f
a p rotected group, said the new g u id elin es, it h a d to be shown n o t only
that the test really did pred ict j o b p e rfo rm a n c e but that the p red ictio n
was strong e n o u g h to m ak e a sig n ifica n t e c o n o m i c difference a n d th at
no n o n d isc rim in a to ry alte rn a tiv e was a v a ila b le . A n employer, the rea
so n in g went, m ay h a v e a b a n d o n e d old er an d c ru d e r form s o f deliberately
discrim inatory tre a tm e n t o f w orkers or j o b a p p li c a n t s (often called d is
parate tr e a tm e n t ) but still be v io la tin g the in t e n t o f the law by usin g a
needlessly d isc rim in ato ry test. D isp a rate im p a c t, in other words, was to
be the red flag th a t set the E E O C in m o tio n .
G R IG G S A N D A FTERW A RD
S o o n after, th e U . S . S u p r e m e C o u r t e n te re d t h e fray. A p p lic a n ts for c e r

tain d esirable jo b s at the D u k e P o w er C o m p a n y had been required to
hav e a high sc h o o l d ip lo m a or to e arn ab ility test scores ab ove a cutoff.
Fewer blacks were g ettin g ov er th ese hurdles t h a n whites; a suit found
its way to th e S u p r e m e C o u rt. T h e C o u r t s d e c is i o n in Griggs v. Duke
Power C o . ,6 was in stan tly recognized as a tu r n in g point in the m arc h o f
affirm ative a c tio n in the w o rk p la c e .7 T h e S u p r e m e C o u rt struck down
the use o f either th e tests or th e e d u c a tio n a l req u irem en t, bec au se the
c o m p a n y was u n ab le to satisfy the C o u r t th at e ith e r a d ip lom a or a high
score o n a test h a d any bearing o n the jo b s t h e ap p lic an ts were being
hired for.8
D u k e Power C o . s defense was, a m o n g o t h e r things, that it was try
ing to raise the g e n e ra l in tellec tu al level o f its work force by im p osin g
658 Appendix 7
e d u c a tio n a l or ab ility test s c o r e requirem ents. In the C o u r t s u n a n im o u s

d e c isio n ( w h ic h re v ersed c o n tr a ry o p in io n s in both the federal district
a n d c ircu it c o u rts), C h i e f J u s tic e W arren Burger approved unstintingly
o f th e E E O C s g u id elin es: A d v e r s e im p ac t placed a burden o f p roof on
e m p lo y ers to sh o w n o t ju st t h a t they were no t in tentionally d isc rim i
n a t in g a g a in st th e p ro te c te d groups but that their testing procedures
c o u l d be ju stified e c o n o m ic a lly , and th at no other av ailab le h irin g p ro
ce d u re is equally useful b u t less discriminatory. S aid the C o u rt, good
(i.e ., n o n d isc rim in a to ry ) in te n tio n s do n o t excu se tests th a t o p erate as
built-in h e a d w i n d s for m in o rity groups and are unrelated to m easurin g
j o b cap ability.'1T h e r e m u st b e both business necessity an d a m a n i
fest re la tio n sh ip b e tw e e n th e test an d the job, as the E E O C had ruled.
E m p lo y ers were b e in g told to be wary o f off-the-shelf tests of general
ability; if they w a n te d to use a test at all, they would be well advised to
write th em for the sp ec ific j o b at h an d and to do their ow n v a lid a tio n
studies.
O rdinarily there is s o m e p resu m p tio n that people will obey g u id e
lin e s proposed by a federal ag e n c y like E E O C , but not d o in g so d o es not
v io la te the law. In d eed , in th e legislative record, C o n g r e ss was assured
t h a t the E E O C had n o e n fo r c e m e n t powers. However, the C o u r t in
G riggs said that the E E O C g u id elin es deserve great d eferen c e, 10 which
e n d o w e d th em w ith a u th o r ity verging o n the power of law itself. T h is
layin g on o f th e h a n d s o f legality is on e reason rhat Griggs has bec om e
the lan d m a rk c a s e it h a s tu rn e d out to be, for only a defiant or reckless
e m p lo y er w ould d isrega rd g u id elin es th at the C o u rt em braced so e n
thusiastically. B e y o n d rhat, how ever, Griggs transformed rhe very c o n
c e p t io n o f affirm a tiv e a c t i o n in the workplace.
T h e C o u r t g ro u n d e d its d e c isio n in the 1964 C iv il R igh ts A c t itself,
a l th o u g h the a c t said n o t h i n g a b o u t job relatedness, adverse im p ac t, or
the lack o f a lte r n a tiv e hiring criteria. T h e act did, however, say th at a
test must no t be d e sig n e d , in te n d e d or used to d iscrim inate against
p e o p le in the p r o te c te d m in o rity groups. L ike the E E O C , the C o u r t c o n
sidered jo b re la te d n e ss an d a d v erse im p ac t to be reasonable tran slatio n s
of T itle V I I s p r in c ip le s in to practice. B u t it c a n be argued th at jo b re-
la te d n e ss an d d is p a r a te im p a c t per se go well beyond Title V I 1, because
a te s t may h a v e d isp a ra te im p a c t and no t be specifically related to the
p articular jo b b e in g filled w ith o u t the e m p lo y ers h av in g d esig n ed , in
ten d e d , or used it for d isc rim in a to ry p urposes.1111
Appendix 7 65 9
T h e issue h in g e s on w hether e a c h o f th e th re e term s d esigned, in

tended or used m ust signify d isc rim in a to ry in te n t (i.e., th e guilty
mind usually required in cases o f liability) o r o n ly the first two. T h e first
two term s d esign ed , in ten d ed clearly im p ly d iscrim in ato ry intent.
M ust the third? N o , said the S u p r e m e C o u r t , u se d need not. A n d if it
need not, th en an em p lo y er is v iolatin g T itl e V I I e v e n if he is n o t guilty
of d iscrim in ato ry in ten t, so long as the te st h a s d isp ara te im p a c t and has
n o t b een p roved , to the C o u r t s satisfac tio n , t o he jo b related.1'21
A fte r two d e c a d e s in force, the C o u r t s in te rp re ta tio n may seem c o r
rect to m any readers, but b o th the legislative rec o rd and the w ording o f
Title V l l belie it.|l!| P ro p o n en ts o f T itle V II, o n the floor o f C on gress
and elsewhere, repeatedly assured the o p p o s i t io n th a t tests adm inistered
without d iscrim in ato ry intent, h o w e v e r a d v e rse their effects, were not
being c h a lle n g e d , let alo n e b a n n e d .1141 For e x a m p l e , in a m em o ran d u m
submit red by S e n a t o r Clifford C a s e , o n e o f T itl e V I I s leading a d vo cates
during the legislative d ebates, we fin d th e fo llo w in g assurance: N o
court could read T itle VII as requiring a n e m p l o y e r to lower o r change
the o c c u p a tio n a l q u alific a tio n s he sets for his e m p lo y e e s sim ply because
fewer N e g ro e s t h a n whites are able to m e e t t h e m . 11 S e n a t o r H ubert
H umphrey, as we n o ted in C h a p t e r 20, also assured fellow legislators
that Title VII would never be used to im p o se p ercentage hiring re
q u irem en ts ( d isp arate im p act criteria) o n em p lo y ers.
A year later, in the Equal E m p lo y m e n t O p p o r tu n ity A c t o f 1972,
C o n g r e ss sp oke for the third branch o f g o v e r n m e n t , allying itself with
the C o u rt a n d the EEOC'. It d isa p p ro v e d o f m ere paper c re d e n tia ls
(such as c o g n itiv e ability test scores) th ar are o f q u e stio n ab le valu e.
It warned th at su ch c red en tials burdened p e o p le w h o were s o c io e c o
n o m ically or ed u c atio n ally d is a d v a n t a g e d w ith artificial q ualific a
tion s. 16 W h e n it first en a cted Title V ll in 1 9 6 4 , C o n g r e s s on rhe whole
trusted general ability tests to serve th e p u rp o se of p red ictin g worker
quality; by 1972, C o n g r e ss, e c h o in g G riggs, h a d b e c o m e far m o re sk e p
tical of the p red ic tiv e power o f those tests a n d su sp icio us th at they were
a pretext for illegal d isc rim in a tio n .17 In the w o rd s o f o n e legal scholar,
T h e central ratio n a le of the C o u r t s d e c i s i o n in Griggs . . . was based
on an a ssu m p tio n th at those o f different ra c e s are in herently equal in
ability and in telligen ce, and o n a d e e p s k e p tic is m about the utility o f
d ev ices trad itio n ally used to select a m o n g a p p l i c a n t s for e m p lo y m e n t. 18
W ith all th ree b ra n c h es o f g o v e r n m e n t p u s h in g in the s a m e general
660 Appendix 7
d ire c tio n , affirm a tiv e a c t i o n policies evolved toward greater relia n c e on

d isp a ra te i m p a c t as the to u c h sto n e of illegality rather than o n d isc rim
in atory in te n t or disp arate treatm ent. A s in Griggs, the S u p r e m e C o u r t
in 1 9 7 5 , in A lbem arle Paper C o . v. M o od y,19 considered a case in w hich
an e m p l o y e r used in tellig en c e tests (a m o n g other criteria) to select
w orkers for w ell-p ayin g jo b s. O n c e again, black applicants, w ho earned
lower sc o res t h a n white a p p lic an ts, brought s u i t / 1 T h e C o u r t reaffirm ed
the g e n e ra l o u tlin e s o f G riggs, but in filling out details, it p rovid ed three
step s to fo llo w in p rovin g that an em p lo y m en t test was in v io l a ti o n of
T itle V II (as a m e n d e d ). First, the C o u rt said, a c o m p la in in g party m ust
sh ow d is p a r a te im pact. T h i s in volved a statistical proof that those who
were hired or p rom oted o n the basis of the test included significantly
fewer m e m b e r s of a p rotected group than random selection from ihe a p
p lic a n t p o o l w o u ld hav e p rod uced. G i v e n this proof o f disp arate im p act,
the bu rd en o f p ro o f shifts to the employer, who must now p rove that
scores o n the test h av e a p ro v e n an d vital relationship to the specific job
they were h ire d for. T h e criterion expressed in Griggs, business n e c e s
sity, w as c a rrie d forward in to Albemarle. If the em ployer p asses this h u r
dle, the c o m p l a i n in g party c a n offer ev id en ce that the em p lo y er could
h av e used a d ifferen t h irin g procedure, one that was as effective in se
lectin g w ork ers but w ith o u t the disparate im pact. If this c an be shown,
th e n , t h e C o u r t ruled, the em ployer has been show n to h a v e d isc rim i
n ated illegally by failing to h av e used the altern ativ e p ro c ed u re.1' 11
O t h e r f e d e r a l au th o rities besides the E E O C were m o n ito rin g and p r o
m o tin g a ffirm a tiv e ac tio n in the workplace. In the m id -1 9 7 0 s, as in
c o n s i s te n c ie s b eg an to c r o p up, pressure built up for c o o r d in a tin g as
broad a slice o f the federal in v o lv e m e n t in affirmative a c tio n as p o ssi
ble. A f t e r so m e false starts, the U n ifo rm G u id e lin e s on E m p lo y ee S e
le c tio n P ro c e d u re s were a d o p ted in 1978 by E E O C , the C iv il S e rv ic e
C o m m i s s i o n ( la te r called the O ffice o f Personnel M a n a g e m e n t ) , the
D e p a r t m e n t o f Ju stice, th e D e p a rtm e n t of the Treasury, an d the D e
p a r t m e n t of L a b o r / 2 A t th is writing, they are still in force. T h e C o u r t s
d e c isio n s in G riggs a n d A lbem arle set the broader framework for the U n i
form G u i d e l i n e s , but further details were elaborated, in so m e respects
in c r e a sin g th e pressure on em ployers using tests. For e x a m p le , the U n i
form G u i d e l i n e s h eld in c o n tr a st to the C o u rt in Alberruirle th at the
em ployer h a s a resp onsibility for seeking less d iscrim inatory selectio n
p ro c ed u res, a rath er d ifferen t m atter from giving a c o m p la in in g patty
the o p p o r t u n i t y to do so, as the C o u r t had decreed.
Appendix 7 661
V A LID A T IN G E M P L O Y M EN T T E S T S
T h e U n ifo r m G u id e lin e s attem p t to d e f in e a u n ified a p p r o a c h to affir-

niative a c tio n in the w orkplace, hut p r a c t i c e s still vary, a n d th ere con-
tinue to he new laws and new in t e r p r e t a t i o n s hy courts. B u t they com e
as c lo se to a policy c o n sen su s as a n y t h i n g d o e s . T h e y also r ev ea l the u n
derlying a ssu m p tio n s ab out the facts. O n th e m a tte r of test validation,
the G u id e lin e s e sp o u se the strin g e n t b u s i n e s s n ecessity requirem ent
held in Griggs a n d Albemarle. T h e y p r o v i d e d e ta i le d req uirem ents for
v a lid a tin g tests. W ith o u t su b m erg in g o u r r e a d e r s m ore d e ep ly in te c h
nical m in u tiae th a n seem s ap p ro p ria te h e re , l e t us say that th e U n iform
G u id e lin e s lean sharp ly toward c rite r ia th a r w o u l d be h ard an d e x p e n
sive for em ployers to m eet, ev en w h e n c h e a p e r o r easier m e th o d s almost
certainly would h a v e been more e f f e c t i v e . 2 G e n e r a l ability tests, read
ily av ailab le and widely standardized, a re rarely a c c e p ta b le to the E E O C
or rhe courts, unless the em p lo y er g o e s t h r o u g h rhe difficult, if not
im possible, and, p syeh om etrieally s p e a k i n g , n eed less, p ro c e ss o f re
stan dardization o f an established test. T o v a l i d a t e a test, a n employer
needs a m easure o f p erform ance. T h e g o v e r n m e n t typically rejects m e a
sures of training p erform an ce a n d s u p e r v i s o r ratings. A s C h a p t e r 3
detailed, bo th train in g scores a n d s u p e r v i s o r ratings may be suitable
m easures of p erfo rm an c e, an d they are re l a ti v e l y easy to ob tain . T h e
m easures usually required by the g o v e r n m e n t are all but im possible to
ob tain , especially for jo b c a n d id a te s w h o are n o t hired.
D esp ite an air o f rigor and p re c isio n in d i s c u s s i n g v a lid a tio n , neither
rhe E E O C nor any o th e r bran ch of g o v e r n m e n t in v o lv ed in ad m in ister
ing affirm ative a c tio n p olicies has s h o w n a n y in terest in e v a lu a tin g just
how p red ictiv e o f worker p erfo rm a n c e th e s t r i n g e n t and costly v a lid a
tion procedures it d e m a n d s are, or w h e t h e r t h e r e is any g a i n in predic
tive power w hen they are used. T h e th ru st c o n t i n u e s to be, as it h as been
from the b eg in n in g , to increase the n u m b e r s h i r e d or p ro m o te d from the
protected groups, based o n the u n d e r ly in g a s s u m p t io n th a t, ex c ep t for
d isc rim in atio n or the legacy of p a st d i s c r i m i n a t i o n , the p rotected groups
should be equally represented ac ro ss th e o c c u p a t i o n a l sp ectrum .
D ISP A R A T E IM P A C T
A c c o r d in g to th e G u id e lin e s, a n e m p l o y e r t h a t c o m e s u n d e r their j u
risdiction c a n e x p e c t to be required to v a l i d a t e a test th a t is, to prove
its business n ecessity if there is d is p a r a t e i m p a c t . A n d , rhe G u id e lin e s
662 Appendix 7
further say, d is p a r a te im p ac t is assum ed if selecting em ployees by the test

violates th e 8 0 p e r c e n t rule, ex p la in ed in C h a p t e r 20. A s helpful as it
may be to e m p lo y e rs a n d regulators to h av e a fixed standard for d isparate
im pact, th e 8 0 p e r c e n t rule is psychom etrically unsound bec au se it sets
a fixed sta n d a r d . G i v e n two groups with differing average scores an d a
c u toff for h ir in g o r p ro m o tio n , the ratio o f those selected from the lower
group to th o s e s e le c te d from the higher group, given a fair hiring p rocess,
shrinks as the c u t o ff rises.
S u p p o s e t h a t you are an em ployer faced with two groups that are of
equal size in th e a p p li c a n t pool. T h e higher group averages o n e s t a n
dard d e v i a t io n a b o v e the lower on an IQ test, but the d istribution o f
scores for e a c h g rou p is n o rm al and has the sam e variability. T h e eighty
percent rule fixes th e ratio at eighty hired from the lower grou p (if it is
protected by affirm a tiv e ac tio n ) per hundred hired from the higher
group. B u t if you w an t to establish a m in im u m IQ o f 100 as the cutoff
point for h irin g w orkers, only slightly more than thirty a p p lic a n ts from
the lower gro u p w ould be selected for every hundred from the higher.
S u pp o se th a t you n e e d a work force with above-average IQ s, so you raise
the c u to ff to a n I Q s c o re o f 110. In that case, a fair hiring process could
be e x p ec ted to se le c t on ly twenty of the lower group for e a c h hundred
selected from th e u p p er group. If you need a work force with a m in im u m
IQ o f 120, th e ratio d ro p s to ab ou t ten from the lower per h u n d red from
the higher. T h e ratio will c on tin u e to shrink indefinitely as the cutoff
m oves upw ard. In o th e r words, applying rhe 80 percent rule has d ra sti
cally d ifferen t effects for a n em ployer hiring p eop le for ja n ito ria l jobs
c o m p a re d ro a n e m p lo y e r hiring lawyers or accou ntants. E v e n if o n e is
in favor o f th e c o n c e p t of av oid in g disparate im p ac t, the 8 0 percent
rule is an e x tre m e ly unrealistic way o f doing so.
A R E V E R S A L IN T H E A FFIR M A T IV E A C T IO N T R E N D L IN E , OR
A BLIP?
T h e S u p r e m e C o u r t in 1989 backed off from its most d e m a n d in g re

q u irem en ts for e m p l o y m e n t testing. In Wards Cove Packing C o . , Inc. v.
A toni'o/4 it s o fte n e d the ob ligatio n on the em ployer in ju stify ing d is
parate im p a c t of a test. Business necessity, the C o u rt said, is an u n
reasonably str in g e n t criterion , virtually im possible for m o st ordinary
businesses to m e e t. T h e result of so extrem e a requirem ent, warned the
Cou rt, w o u ld b e a h o st o f evils. 21 It was, the C o u r t now said, en o u gh
Appendix 7 663
to show th at the test serves legitimate b u s in e s s g oa ls. It looked as if the

Duke Power C o . s d efen se in G riggs to im p ro v e t h e general in te lle c t
tual quality o f its e m p lo y ees would h a v e m e t this new stan dard. S o o n
thereafter, however, C o n g r e ss retaliated. T h e C iv il R ig h ts A c t o f 1991
repud iated W ards ( awc and returned to th e sta n d a r d s of Griggs a n d A lb e
m arle to business necessity, jo b re late d n e ss, and disp arate im p a c t as
those earlier d e c isio n s had defined it. O n c e again , em ployers e v id e n tly
must satisfy a c riterion for em p lo y m en t t e s t i n g that the C ourt, tw o y ears
before, ju d ged to be im possibly d e m a n d in g . T h e new law is frau g h t w ith
am biguity a n d will d oubtless send lawyers, th e ir c lie n ts, and c o u rts b a c k
to work to figure o u t what it requires."h B u t the b e st guess is th a t the
trendline had blip p ed , not reversed.
Notes
Abbreviations
DES. N a tio n a l C e n t e r for Education Sta tistics, Digest of Education Statistics.

Published annually, W ashington, D .C .: G o v e r n m e n t Printing Office.
N LSY . N a tio n a l Longitudinal Survey of Youth. C e n t e r for H um an Resource
Research, O h i o S ta te University, C o l u m b u s , O h io .
SAILS. U .S . Bureau ot the Census. Statistical Abstract of the United States. Pub
lished annually, W ashington, D .C .: G o v e r n m e n t Printing Office. For
each cire in rhe text, we have a d d e d the y e a r o f the edition and table
numbers to the abbreviarion; e.g., D E S , 1 9 x x , T a b le x x
Introduction
1. G a l ton 1869.
2. Forrest 1974-
3. For a brief history o f testing from G a l t o n on , see H errnstein and Boring
1965.
4- In C h in a , civil service exa m in a tio n s that f u n c t i o n e d de facto as intelli
gence tests though overw eighted with p ure m e m o ry questions had
been in use for more than a thousand years.
5. Sp e a rm a n 1904-
6. G a lt o n 1888; S tig le r 1986.
7. A correlation matrix is the set o f all pairs o f co rre la tio n s. For example, in
a 20-irem tesr, each item will h ave 19 u niqu e corre la tion s with the other
items, and the total matrix will c o n t a in 190 u n i q u e correlations (of Item
1 with Item 2, Item 1 with Item 3, etc.).
8. We are glossing over many com plexities, i n c lu d i n g the effects of varying
reliabilities for the items or tests. S p e a r m a n u n d e r s to o d , and took account
of, the co ntribution o f reliability variations.
9. Buckv. Bell, 1927.
10. T h is was Harry Laughlin, whose story is told in K e v l e s 1985.
11. Rrigham 1923; K evles 1985.
12. T h e stories h ave been most influentially told by F allow s 1980; Gould 1981;
K am in 1974-
13. S n yd erm an an d Herrnstein 1983.
14. Sn vde rm an and Herrnstein 1983.
666 Notes to pages 15-23
15. L ip p m a n n 1922 p. 10.

16. L ip p m a n n , 1923 p. 46.
17. S n y d e r m a n and Herrnstein 1983.
18. M a ie r a n d S ch n e irla 1935.
19. S k in n e r 1938.
20. S k in n e r 1953; Sk in n e r 1971.
21. Je n se n 1969.
22. H irsch 1975, p. 3.
23. Pearson 1992.
24. H errnstein 1971.
25. Griggs etal. v. Duke Power C o . , 1971.
26. Q u o te d in J en sen 1980, p. 13.
27. Elliott 1987.
28. K a m in 1974, p. 3.
29. O . Gillie. 1976. C rucial data faked hy em inent psychologist. Sunday Times
(L o n d o n ), O ct. 24, pp. 1-2.
30. Joy nson 1989; Fletcher 1991.
31. Bouchard et al. 1990.
32. G o u l d 1981.
33. G o u l d 1981, pp. 2 7 -2 8.
34. Sn yd erm an and R o th m an 1988.
35. Binet himself had died hy the time Piaget arrived ar the S o rh o n n e in 1919,
hut the work on intelligence testing was being carried forward hy his c o l
laborator o n the first Binet test, T h eo phile Sim on (see Piaget 1952).
36. Stern berg 1988, p. 8.
37. Stern berg 1985, p. 18.
38. Block and Dworkin 1974.
39. G a rd n e r 1983, pp. 6 0 - 6 1 . Emphasis in rhe original.
40. G a rd n e r 1983, p. 278.
41. G a r d n e r 1983, p. xi. Emphasis in original.
42. G a rd n e r 1983, p. 17. In fact, G a rd n e rs claim about the arbitrariness of fac
tor analysis is incorrect.
43. G a rd n e r 1983, pp. xi-xii.
44. G a r d n e r 1983, p. 17.
45. A lt h o u g h so m e of the accomplishments of mental calculators remain in
explicable, m uch has been learned about how they are done. S ee Jensen
1990; O ' C o n n o r and H ermelin 1987.
46. C e c i and Liker 1986.
47. A n accurate and highly readable summary of rhe major points is S eligm an
1992. For those who are prepared to dig deeper, Jen sen 1980 remains an
a u th oritative statem en t on most of the basic issues despite the passage of
tim e since it was published.
Notes 10 pages 26-35 667
Introduction to Part I
1. Reun ing 1988.

2. Robert Laird Collier, quoted in M an ch ester 1983, p. 79.
CluijHer 1
1. Bender 1960, p. 2.
2. T h e national S A T - V in 1952 was 476, a little m ore than a standard d e v i
ation lower than the Harvard mean. Perhaps the average Harvard student
was much farther ahead of the national average than the text suggests b e
cause the n ational SA T-taking popu lation was so selective, representing
only 6.8 percent o f high school graduates. But on e of the oddities of the
1950s, discussed in more detail in C h a p te r 18, is that the S A T means re
mained co n sta n t through the decade and into 1963, even as the size of the
test-taking population mushroomed. By 1963, wh en S A T scores hit their
all-rime high in the p o st - 1952 period, the test-taking population had
grown to 47.9 percent o f all high school graduates. T h u s there is reason to
think that the com parison is about the sam e as the one that would have
been produced by a much larger number of test takers in 1952.
3. Bender 1960, p. 4-
4. In the 1920s, fewer than .30 percent of all young people graduated from
high school, and the differences between the c o gn itiv e ability of graduates
and nongraduates were small, as discussed in C h a p t e r 6. Som eth in g b e
tween 6 0 and 75 percent of the 18-year-olds in the top IQ quartile never
even made it into the calculations shown in the figure on page 34- From
the early 1960s on, 70 percent o f the n a t io n s youth have graduated from
high school, and we know that the difference betw een the ability of those
who do and do not graduate has been large. M o re concretely, o f a n a t i o n
ally representative sam ple of youth who were administered a highly re
garded psychometric test in 1980 when they were 15 and 16 years old, 95
percent o f those who scored in the top quartile subsequently graduated
from high school, and another 4 percent eventually got a general e q u iv a
lency diploma. T h e test was the A rmed Forces Q u alification Test, and the
sam ple was the 1964 birth cohort of the N a t io n a l Longitudinal Survey of
Youth ( N L S Y ) , discussed in detail in the introduction to Part II. T h e f ig
ure for the proportio n entering colleges is based o n the N L S Y cohorts an d
students entering colleges over 1 9 81 -1 98 3.
5. T h e top IQ quartile o f the N L S Y that first atte n d ed college in 1 9 8 1 - 1 9 8 3
was split as follows: 21 percent did not co n tin u e to college in the first year
after graduation, 18 percent went to a two-year college, and 61 percent a t
tended a four-year college.
6. O Brien 1928. T h e s e percentages are based o n high school graduates,
668 Notts to pages 3540
which a cc o u n ts for the high percentages o f srudents shown as going to co l

lege in the 1920s. It the estimates had been based on rhe proportion of the
18-year-olds who h a v e been graduating from high school since the 1970s,
those prop ortio ns would have been much smaller. T h e shape of the curve,
however, would he essentially unchanged (because the IQ distribution of
students w h o did n o t complete high school was so close ro rhe distribution
of those who did; see Finch 1946).
7. A n o t h e r e x c e lle n t database from the same period, a nationally represen
tative sam ple tested with the Preliminary S A T in 1960 and followed up a
year later, co nfirm s results from Project T A L E N T , a large, nationally rep
resentative sam ple o f high school youths taken in 1960 (Seih el 1962).
A m o n g those who scored in the bottom quartile, for example, only 1 1 p er
cent went to college; of those in rhe top quartile, 79 percenr went to c o l
lege; of those in the top 5 percenr, more than 95 percent went ro college.
8. T h e s e d a ta are taken trom Project T A L E N T in 1960.
9. Front the N L S Y , described in the introduction to Parr 11.
10. T h e test was F orm A o f the Otis. Brigham 1932, Table XVIII, p. 3 36.
11. T h e sc h o o ls are Brown, Bryn Mawr, Columbia, Harvard, M ount Holyoke,
Princeton, R adcliffe, Smith, University o f Pennsylvania (with separate
m eans for men and women), Vassar, Wellesley, Williams, and Yale.
12. Learned and W o o d 1938.
13. N o t inclu ding the University ot Pennsylvania, one of the elite schools.
14. Betw een the earliest S A T and 1964, the S A T had divided into a verbal
and a m ath score. It is a moot question whether the m o d em overall S A T
or the verbal S A T is more comparable to the original SAT. In the c o m
parisons b ein g m a d e here, we rely on the Educational Testing S erv ice norm
studies, which en a b le us to place an S A T value on the ruitumal 18-year-old
co hort, n o t ju st th e cohort who takes the test. We explain the norm stud
ies in C h a p t e r 18.
15. T h is is n o t the usual S A T distribution, which is ordinarily restricted to
co lle ge-b o u n d seniors, but rather shows the distribution tor a nationally
representative sam ple of all high school seniors, based on the norm stu d
ies m e n t io n e d in n o te 14. It is restricted to persons still in high school and
does not in clu de the 34 percent of 18-year-olds who were not.
16. We know how high the scores were for many schools as of the early 1960s.
We k n o w H a r v a r d s scores in the early 1950s. We can further be confident
that n o sc h o o l was much more selective than Harvard as of 1952 (with the
possible e x c e p t io n o f science students going to C a l Tech and M I T ) . T h e r e
fore m e a n s for virtually all o f the other schools as of 1952 had to be near
or below' H a r v a r d s, and the dramatic changes for the other elite schools
had to be occurring in the same comparatively brief period o f time c o n
ce n trated in the 1950s.
Notes to pages 4045 669
17. Render 1960, p. 6.

18. T h is percentage is derived from 1960 data reported by Bend er 1960, p. 15,
regarding the m edian family income ol c a n d id a t e s who applied for s c h o l
arship aid, were denied, but cam e to Harvard anyw ay. Total costs a t H a r
vard in 1960 represented 21 percent of that m e d ia n .
19. T h e families for whom a year at Harvard represented less than 20 p erc en t
of their income constituted approximately 5.8 p e r c e n t of families in 1950
and 5.5 percent ot families in 1950. Estim ated from U .S . Bureau of the
C en su s 1975, Cj -1-15.
20. T h e facultys views were expressed in Faculty o f A r t s and S cien ce s 1960.
21. Bender 1960, p. 31.
22. For an analysis of the ascriptive qualities that H a r v a r d continued to use for
admissions choices in the 1980s, see Karen 1991.
2 5. T h e increase in applications to Harvard had b e e n just as rapid from 1952
to 1958, when the size of the birth cohorts w a s virtually constant, as in
1959 anti 1960, when they started to increase.
24. For an analysis o f forces driving more recent in c re a se s in applications, see
Clotfelter 1990 and C o o k and Frank 1992.
25. C o o k and Frank 1992.
26. H arvard, MIT, Princeton, Stanford, and C al T e c h were in the top se ve n
in all three decades. C olum b ia and C h ic a g o w ere rhe other two in the
1960s, Yale and C o rn ell in the 1970s and 1980s. C o o k and Frank 1992,
Table 3.
27. C o o k and Frank 1992, Table 4- T h e list of m o st c o m p e t it iv e consists of
the thirty-three schoo ls named by Barrons in its 1 9 8 0 list. T h e C o o k and
Frank analysis generally suggests that the c o n c e n t r a t i o n o f top stu dents in
a few schools may h ave plateaued during the 19 7 0 s, th e n resumed a g a in in
the 1980s.
28. U .S . News & World Report, O ctob er 15, 1990, p p . 116-134- It is n o t n e c
essary to insist that this ranking is precisely a c c u r a t e . It is enough th a t it
includes all the schools that most people would n a m e if they were asked
to list the n a tio n s top schools, and the m e t h o d for arriving at the list of
fifty seems reasonable.
29. T h e C ollege Board ethnic and race breakdowns for 1991, available by re
quest from the C o lle g e Board. T h ere is also re a so n t o believe that a n e x
tremely high proportion o f high school stu d e n ts in e a c h senior class who
have the potential to score in the high 6 00 s a n d th e 700s on the S A T a c
tually take the test. S e e Murray and H errnstein 1992.
30. S e e C h a p t e r 18 for where the S A T population re sid e s in the n atio n a l c o n
text.
31. T h e s e represent norm al distributions based o n e s t im a t e s drawn from th e
Learned data that the mean IQ o f Pennsylvania g ra d u a t e s in 1930 was a p
p roxim ately two-thirds of a standard deviation above the m ean (rhe mean
o f in c o m in g freshm en was .48 S D s above the mean), and from the Brigham
data t h a t the graduates of the Ivy League and Seven Sisters were approxi
mately 1.25 S D s above the mean (they were 1.1 S D s above the mean as
freshm en , and the Ivy League graduated extremely high p roportions of the
in c o m in g students).
32. T h e distribu tion s for the main groups are based on the N L S Y , tor youths
who c a m e o f college age from 1981 to 1983 and have been followed through
the 1 9 9 0 interview wave. T h e top dozen universities are those ranked 1
through 12 in the U . S . News & World Report survey tor 1990. U . S . News
& World Report, O ctober 15, 1990, pp, 11 6-1 34 . T h e analysis is based on
published distribution of SAT-Verbal scores, which is the more highly
loaded of the S A T subtests. T h e estimated verbal mean (weighted by size
o f the treshm an class) for these twenty schools, based on their published
S A T distributions, is 633. T h e estimated mean tor graduates is 650
(dropout rates for these schools are comparatively low but highly c o n
centrated a m o n g those with the lowest entering scores). T h is compares
with a n ation al SAT-Verbal norm estim ated at 376 with an S D of 102
(B raun , C e n tr a , and King, 1987, A ppen dix B). T h e distribution in the fig
ure o n page 46 converts the S A T data to standardized scores. T h e implicit
assu m ption is th a t A F Q T (A rm ed Forces Qualification Test, an intelli
gence test discussed in A ppendix 3) and SAT-Verbal measure rhe same
thing, which is surely wrong to so me degree. Both tests are highly g-loaded,
however, and it is reasonable to conclude that youths who have a mean
2.5 S D s a b o v e the m ean on the S A T would have means so mew here close
to that on a full-fledged mental test.
53. W e h ave defined these as the first twelve ot the listed universities in the
U .S . N ew s & World Report listing tor 1990. T h ey are (in the order ot their
ran kin g) H arvard , Stanford, Yale, Princeton, C a l Tech, MIT, Duke, Dart
m o uth, C o rn e ll, C olum bia, University o f C h ic a go, and Brown.
34. T h e p rob abilities are based on the proportions ot people entering these
categories in the 1980s, which means that they become progressively too
generous for older readers (when the proportion of people getting college
degrees was sm aller). Bur this is a technicality; the od ds are already so tiny
that they are tor practical purposes unaffected by further restrictions. T h e
figure for co lle ge degrees reflects the final educational attain m en t o f m e m
bers o f the N L S Y , who were b o m in 1957 through 1964, as o f 1990 (when
the youngest was 2 5 ), as a weighted proportion of the N L S Y population.
T h e figure for Ph.D ., law, and medical degrees is based on the number of
degrees aw ard ed over 1980-19 89 expressed as a proportion of the p op u la
tio n age 26 in ea c h o f those years. T h e figure for graduates o f the dozen
elite sc h o o ls is based on the number of undergraduate degrees awarded by
Notes to pages 50-53 671
these institutions in 1989 (the figure has va ried little tor many years), e x
pressed as a proportion of rhe popu lation age 22 in 1989 (incidentally, th e
smallest cohort since the mid-1970s.)
35. Based on the m edian percentages for t h o s e sc o r e intervals am on g those
schools.
Chapter 2
1. Herrnstein 1973.
2. For a on e-source discussion of IQs a n d o c c u p a t io n s , see Matarazzo 1972,
C hap. 7. A lso see Jen ck s et al. 1972 a n d S e w e ll and H auser 1975 for c o m
prehensive analyses of particular se ts of d a ta. T h e literature is large an d e x
tends back to the early part of the century. F or earlier studies, see, for
example, Bin gham 1937; Clark and U i s t 1938; Fryer 1922; Pond 1933;
Stewart 1947; Term an 1942. For more re cen t estim a te s of minim um scores
for a wide variety of occupations, see E. F. W o n d erlic Associates 1983;
U .S. Department of Labor 1970.
3. Jencks et al. 1972.
4. Fallows 1985.
5. T h e Fels Longitudin al Study; see M c C a l l 1977.
6. T h e correlation was a sizable .5-.6, o n a sca le t h a t goes from -1 to + 1 . S e e
C hapter 3 and A p p e n d ix 1 for a fuller e x p l a n a t i o n o f w hat the correlation
coefficient means. J o b status for the boys was a h o u t equally well pred icted
by childhood IQ as by their completed e d u c a t i o n a l levels; for the girls, jo b
status was more correlated with c h il d h o o d IQ th a n with educational a t
tainment. In ano th er study, adult in te llig e n ce w a s also more highly co rre
lated with occupational status th an w ith e d u c a tio n a l attainm ent (see
Duncan 1968). But this may make a s o m e w h a t different point, in a sm u c h
as adult intelligence may itself be a ffecte d by ed u c a tio n a l attainm ent, in
contrast to rhe IQ one chalks up at age 7 or 8 years. In yet anoth er study,
based on Swedish data, adult incom e (a s d istin g u ish ed from occu p a tio n a l
status) was less strongly dependent o n c h il d h o o d IQ (age 10) than on e v e n
tual educational attain m en t (T. H u s e n s d a t a p resen ted in Griliches 1 970),
although being strongly dependent on both. O t h e r analyses com e up with
different assessments o f the underlying r e la t io n sh ip s (e.g., Bowles a n d G i n
tis 1976; Jen ck s 1979). N o t suqirisingly, the e m p irica l picture, b ein g e x
tremely diverse and rich, has lent itself to m y riad form al analyses, w h ic h
we will make no attempt to review. In C h a p t e r s 3 and 4, we present o u r
interpretation o f the link between ind iv id u a l ability a n d occupation. W e
also discuss some o f the evident e x c e p t io n s to th e se findings.
7. Many of the m ajor studies (e.g., D u n c a n 1968; J e n c k s et al. 1972; M c C a l l
1977; Sewell and Hauser 1975) inclu de v a ria b le s describing familial s o
c io e c o n o m i c status, which prove to he somewhat predictive of a p ersons

o w n status.
8. For a fuller discussion o f both the explanation and the controversy, see
H er rn stein 1973.
9. T e a sd a le , S o re n s o n , and O wen 1984-
10. T h e a uth ors o f the study offered as an explanatio n for this pattern of re
sults the well-established pattern of resemblances am on g relatives in IQ,
p resum ably ow ing to the genes that natural siblings share and that ado p
tive siblings do not share. It could, of course, be traits of personality rather
th a n o f intellect that tie a familys occupational destinies together. H ow
ever, the sm all body of evidence bearing on personality traits finds them
to be distinctly weaker predictors of job status than is IQ. A n o t h e r study,
of ov er 1,000 pairs of Norwegian twins, supported the conclusion that the
r e se m b la n ce in jo b status among close relatives is largely explained by their
similarity in IQ and that genes play a significant role in this similarity. See
T a m b s et al. 1989.
11. For som e ot the most detailed distributional data, see Stewart 1947, Table 1.
12. M atarazzo 1972, p. 177.
1 3. S p e cific c o g n itiv e strengths also vary by occupation, with engineers ten d
ing ro score higher on analytic and quantitative sections o f the Grad uate
R e co rd Exam s, while English professors do better on the verbal portions
(e.g., W a h an d Robinson 1990, Figure 2.2).
14- W ith a m e a n o f 100 and S D of 15, an IQ score of 120 cuts off rhe 91 st per
c e n tile o f a normal distribution. But rhe IQ distribution tends to be skewed
so that it is fat o n the right tail. To say that 120 cuts off the top tenth is
only a p p ro x im a te but close enough for our purposes.
15. T h e p rocedure we used to create the figure on page 56 yielded an estim ate
o f 23.2 p ercen t o f the top IQ decile in high-IQ occupations in 1990. Ot
the top IQ decile in the N L S Y as of 1990, when they ranged in age from
25 to 32, 22.2 percent of rhe top decile were employed in the dozen high-
IQ occu p a tio n s. T h e analysis excludes those who were still enrolled in
s c h o o l in 1 9 9 0 and those who were in the military (because their o c c u p a
tio n w ithin the military was unknown). T h e N L S Y figure is a n underesti
m a te (c om p a red to the national estimate) in that those who are still
stu de n ts will disproportionately enter high-IQ professions. O n the other
h a n d , the N L S Y would be likely to exceed the national data in the figure
insofar as the entire N L S Y age cohort is of working age, without retirees.
O n e other c o m m e n t on possible distortions over time: It might be hy
pothesized that, since 1900, the mean has dropped and distribution has
spread, as more and more people have entered those professions. T h e plau
sibility o f the hypothesis is arguable; indeed, there are reasons for hypoth-
Notes to pages 5 7 -6 6 6 73
esizing chat rhe opposite has occurred (for t h e sa m e reasons educational

stratification has raised the IQ o f stu d e n ts a t th e elite colleges). But it
would n ot materially affect the plot in the figure o n page 56 even if true,
because the numbers o f people in those p ro fe ssio n s were so small in the
early decades o f the century. It may also be n o t e d t h a t in the N L S Y data,
46 percenr. o f all jo b slots in the h igh -IQ o c c u p a t i o n s were held bypeople
in the top decile, again matching our c o n je c t u r e a b o u t the IQ scores within
the occupatio ns.
16. Term an and O d e n 1947.
17. T h e N L S Y ca n n o t answer that qu estion, b e c a u s e e v e n a sample o f 11,878
(the number that took the A F Q T ) is t o o sm a ll to yield adequate sample
sizes for analyzing subgroups in the top t e n t h o f th e top percentile.
18. T h ere are not that many people with IQ s of 1 2 0 + left over, after rhe known
co ncentration s of them in the high IQ o c c u p a t i o n s are take n into account.
19. T h e literature is extensive. T h e studies used for this discussion, in a d d i
tion to those cited specifically, include R e n d ix 19 4 9 ; M a c m a h o n and Mil-
lett 1939; Pierson 1969; Stanley, M a n n , a n d D o i g 1967; Sturdivant and
A dler 1976; V ance 1966; Warner and A b e g g l e n 1955.
20. N e w co m er 1955, Table 24, p. 68.
21. C lew s 1908, pp. 27, 37, quoted in N e w c o m e r 1 9 5 5 , p. 66.
22. T h e data are drawn from N ew co m er 1955.
23. Burck 1976. T h e Fortune survey was d e sig n e d to yield data comparable
with those in N e w co m er 1955.
24- T h e ostensible decline in college degrees a fte r 1950 is explained by c o l
lege graduates going on to get add ition al e d u c a t i o n a l credentials. For a n
other study of educational a tta in m e n t of C E O s th a t shows the sam e
pattern, see Priest 1982.
25. U . S . Bureau of the C en su s 1992, Tables 18, 6 1 5 , a n d U .S . Department of
Labor 1991, Table 22.
26. Excluding accoun tants, who were already c o u n t e d in the high-IQ profes
sions.
27. Matarazzo 1972, Table 7.3, p. 178.
( Chapter 3
1. Bok 1985b. In ano th er setting, again d i s c u s sin g t h e S A T , he wrote, S u c h

tests are only modestly correlated wirh s u b s e q u e n t a c a d em ic success and
give no reliable indication o f a c h ie v e m e n t in later life (B ok 1985a, p. 15).
2. T h e correlation o f IQ with income in a re stricted p o p u latio n such as H a r
vard graduates could be negative wh en p e o p le tow ard the top of the IQ
distribution are disproportionately draw n in to a c a d e m i a , where they make
a d e c e n t living but seldom much more than that, while students with IQs
o f on ly 120 a n d 130 will more often go into the business world, where
they may get rich.
3. S e e C h a p t e r 19; D u n n ette 1976; Ghiselli 1973.
4. T ech nically, a correlation coefficient is a ratio, with the covariation of the
tw o variables in the numerator and the product o f the separate standard
d e v ia tio n s of the two variables in the denominator. T h e formula for c o m
p utin g a Pearson product moment correlation r (the kind that we will be
using thro ugh ou t) is:
X ( x - x )(Y-Y)
X (y -v)''
w here X and Y refer to the actual values for each case and X and Y refer to
the m e a n values o f the X and Y, respectively.
5. W e limited the sam ple to families making less than $100,000, so as to avoid
so m e distracting technical issues that arise when analyzing income across
the entire sp ec trum (e.g., the appropriateness of using logged values rather
th an raw values). T h e results from the 1 percent sample are in line with
the statistics produced when the analysis is repeated tor the entire national
sam ple: a correlation of .31 and an increment of $2,700 per year of addi
tio nal ed ucation. Income data are for 1989, expressed in 1990 dollars.
6. A n im po rtant distinctio n: T h e underlying relationship persists in a sa m
ple with restricted range, but the restriction of range makes the relation
sh ip harder to identify (i.e., the correlation coefficient is attenuated,
s o m etim e s to near zero).
F orgetting about restriction o f range produces fallacious reasoning that
is remarkably co m m o n , even am on g academics who are presumably famil
iar with the problem. For example, psychologist David M c C le lla n d , writ
ing at the height o f the anti-IQ era in 1973, argued against any relationship
b etw een career success and IQ, pointing our that whereas college gradu
ates got better jo bs than nongraduates, the academic records of graduates
did n o t correlate with jo b success, even though college grades correlate
with IQ. H e add ed , anecdotally, that he recalled his own college class
W esle y a n University, a top-rated small college and was c o n v in ced that
the eigh t best and eight worst students in his class had not d o n e m uch dif
ferently in their subsequent careers (M cC lellan d 1973). T h is kind o f a r
g u m e n t is also co m m o n in everyday life, as in the advice offered by friends
d u rin g the course ot writing this hook. There was, for exam ple, our friend
the n u cle a r physicist, who prefaced his remarks by saying, I d o n t think
I m any sm arter than the average nuclear physicist . . . O r an engineer
friend, a key figure in the Apollo lunar la n d in g program , who insisted that
this IQ business is much o verem ph asized. H e h a d been a C student in col-
lege and would not have even g ra d u a t e d , e x c e p t that he m anaged to pull
himself together in his senior year. H is c o n c l u s i o n was that motivation was
important, not IQ. Did he h a p p e n to k n o w w hat his IQ was? Sure, he
replied. It was 146. H e was right, insofar as m o tiv a tio n can make the d if
ference between being a first-rate ro ck et sc ie n tist and a mediocre on e if
you start with an IQ of 146. Rut th e p o p u l a t i o n with a score o f 146 (or
above) represents som ething less th a n 0 .2 p ercen t of the population. S i m
ilarly, correlations of IQ and jo b su cc ess a m o n g college graduates suffer
from restriction of range. T h e m o re se le c t iv e th e group is, the greater the
restriction, which is why Derek B o k may plausibly (if n o t quite accurately)
have claim ed th a t S A T scores h a v e " n o co rre la tio n at all with what you
do in rhe rest o f your life" if he w as talk in g a b o u t Harvard students.
7. E.g., Fallows 1985.
8. S e e C h a p te r 20 for more detail.
9. Griggs v. Dulce Power, 401 U .S . 4 2 4 ( 1 9 7 1 ) .
10. T h e doctrine has been built into the U . S . E m p lo y m e n t and Training S e r
vic e s G e n e ral A ptitude Test Battery ( G A T B ) , into the federal civil ser
v ic e s Professional and A d m in istra tiv e C a r e e r E x a m in a tio n ( P A C E ) , and
into rhe militarys A rm ed S ervices V o c a t i o n a l A p titu d e Battery ( A S V A B ) .
Bartholet 1982; Braun 1992; G iffo rd 19 89 ; K e l m a n 1991; Seym our 1988.
For a survey of test instruments a n d th e ir use, see Friedman and Williams
1982.
11. For a recent review o f the expert c o m m u n i t y as a whole, see S c h m id t and
O n e s 1992.
12. Hartigan and W ig dor 1989 and S c h m i d t and H u nter 1991 represent the
two ends of the range of expert o p in io n .
1 3. For a sam pling of the new m ethods, see B a n gert-D ro w n s 1986; G la ss 1976;
Glass, M cG aw , and S m ith 1981; H u n t e r a n d S c h m i d t 1990. M eta-analytic
strategies had b een tried for d e ca d es prio r to th e 1970s, but it was after the
advent of powerful computers a n d statistical software that many of rhe
techniques becam e practicable.
14- Hartigan and W ig dor 1989; H u n t e r an d S c h m i d t 1990; S c h m id t and
H unter 1981.
1 5. We have used the terms job productivity or job performance or performance,
ratings without explain in g what they m e a n or how they are measured. O n
the other hand, all o f us have a se n se of w h a t j o b productivity is tike we
are confident that we know who are the b e tte r a n d worse secretaries, m a n
agers, and colleagues am on g those with w h o m we work closely. But how' is
this knowledge to be captured in o b je c t i v e measures? Ratings by su p erv i
sors or peers? S a m p le s o f work in th e variou s ta sk s that a jo b dem ands? Tests
676 Notes to page 72
o f jo b knowledge? Job tenure or promotion? Direct cost accoun tin g of

w o rk ers output? There is no way to answer such a question decisively, for
p e o p le may legitimately disagree about what it is ahour a workers perfor
m a n c e th a t is most worth predicting. A s a pracrical matrer, ratings by su
pervisors, being the most readily obtained and the least intrusive in the
w orkplace, h ave dominated the literature (Hunter 1986). Rut ir is natural
to w o nd er w hether supervisor ratings, besides being easy ro get, truly m e a
sure how well workers perform rather than, say, how they get along wirh
the boss or how they look (G u ion 1983).
T o get a better fix on what the various measures of performance mean,
it is useful to evaluate a number ot studies that have included measures ot
c o g n itiv e ability, supervisor ratings, samples ot work, and tests of job knowl
edge. W ork samples are usually obtained by setting up stations tor workers
to d o the various tasks required by their jobs and having their work ev al
uated in so m e reasonably obje ctive way. Different o ccupations lend th e m
selves m ore or less plausibly to this kind of simulated performance. The
sa m e is true of written or oral tests of job knowledge.
O n e of the fields leaders, Joh n Hunter, has examined the correlational
structure that relates these different ways of looking at job performance to
e a c h other a n d to an intelligence test score (Hunter 1983, 1986). In a study
o f 1,800 workers, Hunter found a strong direct link between intelligence
a n d jo b knowledge and a much sm aller direct one between intelligence
and perform ance in work sample tasks. By direct we mean that the vari
ables predict each other without raking any other variable into account.
T h e sm all direct link between intelligence and work sam ple was aug
m e n te d by a large indirect link, via job knowledge: a p ersons intelligence
p red icte d his knowledge of the jo b, and his knowledge in turn pvedicred
his work sample. T h e correlation (after the usual statistical corrections)
b etw een intelligence and job knowledge was .8; between intelligence and
work sam ple it was .75. T h e indirect link between intelligence and work
sam ple, via jo b knowledge, was larger by half than the direct one (H unter
1 9 8 6 ).
T h e correlation between intelligence and supervisor ratings in Hunter's
analysis was .47. U po n analysis, H u nter found that the primary reason is
that brighter workers know more about their jobs, and supervisors respond
favorably to their knowledge. A comparable analysis o f approximately
1,500 military personnel in four specialties produced the sam e basic find
ing ( H u n t e r 1986). This may seem a weakness o f the supervisor rating m e a
sure, but is it really? How much workers know about their jobs correlates,
o n th e o n e han d, with their intelligence and, on the other, with both how
th e y do o n direct tests of their work and how they are rated by their su-
pervisors. A workers intelligence influences h o w m u c h he learns ahout the

job, and job knowledge contributes ro proficiency. T h e knowledge also in
fluences rhe impression rhe worker m a k e s o n a su p erviso r rating more than
the work as measured by a work sa m p le test (w h ich , of course, rhe super-
visor may never see in rhe ordinary course of b u sin e ss). Using supervisor
rating as a measure o f proficiency is thereby ju stified, without having to
claim rhar rhe rating directly m easu res proficiency.
H unter found rhat work sa m p les are m o re d e p e n d e n t on intelligence
and job knowledge than are su pervisor ratings. S u pervisor ratings, which
are so predominant' in this literature, may, in o t h e r words, underestimate
how important intelligence is for proficiency. R e c e n t research suggests that
supervisor ratings in fact do u n d e re stim a te th e correlation between intel
ligence and productivity (B e ck e r a n d H u selid 1992). But we should a c
knowledge again that n one ot the m e a su res ot p roficiency work samples,
supervisor ratings, or jo b know ledge tests is free of the taint of artificial
ity, let alone arbitrariness. S u p e r v iso r ratings m a y be biased in many ways;
a test of joh knowledge is a test, n o r a jo h; a n d e v e n a worker going from
one work station to anoth er u nder rhe w a tch fu l eye ot an industrial psy
chologist may he revealing so m e t h in g oth e r t h a n everyday competence. It
has been suggested that the various co n triv e d m e a su res of workers tell us
more about m axim u m perform ance than they d o ab ou t typical, day-to-day
proficiency (G u io n 1983). W e therefore a d v ise that rhe quantitative esti
mates we present here (or that ca n he fo u n d in the technical literature at
large) be considered only ten tative an d su ggestive.
16. T h e average validity o f .4 is o b ta in e d after sta n d a rd statistical corrections
of various sorrs. T h e two most im p o rta n t of th e se are a correction for test
unreliability or m easurem ent error an d a c o r r e c t io n for restriction of range
am on g rhe workers in any o c c u p a t io n . A l l o f t h e validities in this section
of the chapter are similarly corrected, u nless otherw ise noted.
17. Ghiselli 1966, 1973; H unter an d H u n t e r 1984, T ab le 1.
18. H unter 1980; H u nter and H u n t e r 1984.
19. W here available, ratings by peers, tests o f jo b k n o w led ge, and actual work
samples often co m e close to ability m ea su res a s predictors o f jo b perfor
mance (H u nter and H u nter 1 9 84 ). But a p t i t u d e tests have the practical
advantage that they can be ad m in istere d relatively inexpensively to large
numbers o f applicants, and they do n or d e p e n d o n a p p lic an ts having been
on the job for any length o f time.
20. E. F. W onderlic & A sso ciates 1983; H u n t e r 1 98 9. T h e s e validities, which
are even higher than the on es p resen te d in t h e table on page 74 are for
training success rather than for m easu res of jo b perform ance and are more
directly com parable with the c o lu m n for tra in in g success in the G A T R
678 Notes w page 74
studies than the column for job proficiency. Regarding job performance,
one m a jo r study evaluated the performance of about 1,500 air force e n
listed m en an d women working in eight military specialties, ch osen ro be
representativ e of military specialties in the air force. Performance was var
iously m easured: by defining a set ot tasks involved in each jo b, then train
ing a group of evaluators to assess those specific tasks; by interviews ot rhe
person n el o n technical aspects ot their jobs; by supervisor ratings after
train in g the supervisors; and combinatio ns of methods. T h e average co r
relation betw een A F Q T score and a hands-on job performance measure
was .40, with the highest am on g rhe precision measurement equipment
sp ecialists a n d the avionics co mmunications specialists and the lowest
a m o n g the air traffic control operators anti the air crew life support sp e
cialists. Insofar as rhe jobs were restricted to those held by enlisted men,
the distribu tion of jobs was somew hat skewed toward the lower end o f the
skill range. W e do not have an available estimate ot rhe validity of the
A F Q T ov er all military jobs.
21. H artigan and Wigdor 1989.
22. It is o n e of th e chronically frustrating experiences when reading scientific
results: Two sets o f experts, supposedly using comparable data, co m e out
with markedly different conclusions, and the reasons for the differences are
buried in technical and opaque language. How is it possible for a layper
son to decide who is right? T h e different estimates of mean validity ot the
G A T B .45 according to Hunter, Schmidt, and some others; .25 a cc o rd
ing to the H a rtiga n committee is an instructive case in point.
S o m e t im e s the differences really are technical and opaque. For e x a m
ple, the H artigan committee based its estimate on the assum ption [hat the
reliability o f supervisor ratings was higher than other studies assum ed .8
instead of .6 (H artigan and Wigdor 1989, p. 170). By assuming a higher re
liability, the co m m itte es correction for measurement error was smaller
than H u n te rs. Deciding between the Hartigan co m m ittees use ot .8 as the
reliability of supervisor ratings instead of the .6 used by H unter is im possi
ble for a n y o n e who is not intimately familiar with a large and scattered lit
erature on that topic, and even then the choice remains a matter of
ju d gm en t. But the Hartigan co m m ittees decision not to correct tor re
striction of range, which makes the largest difference in their estim ates ot
the overall validity, is based on a much different kind of disagreement.
Here, a layperson is as qualified to decide as an expert, for this is a dis
a g re em e n t a b o u t what question is being answered.
J o h n H u n t e r and others assumed that for any job the applicant pool is
the en tire U . S . work force. T h a t is, they sought an answer to the question,
W h a t is the relationship between job performance and intelligence for
the work force at large? T h e Hartigan committee objected to their as
sumption on grounds that, in practice, t h e a p p lic an t pool tor any p articu

lar job is n ot the entire U .S . work force b u t p eop le who have a c h a n c e to
get the job. A s they accurately n oted , P e o p le gravitate to jobs tor wh ich
they are potentially suited (H a rtiga n a n d W ig d or 1989, p. 166).
But em bedded in the c o m m it te e s o h jec rio n to H u n te rs estim ates is a
tacit switch in the question that th e a naly sis is supposed to answer. T h e
Hartigan co m m itte e sought an answer to th e qu estio n , A m o n g those peo
ple who apply for such-and-such a p o sitio n , w hat is rhe relationship be
tween intelligence and job p erform an ce ? It o n e s obje ctive is n o t to
discourage people who weigh only 2 5 0 p ou n d s trom applying for jobs as
tackles in the N F L , to return to o u r analogy, th e n the Hartigan c o m m i t
tees question is the appropriate o n e . O t course, by minimizing the valid
ity ot weight, a large number ot 1 5 0 -p o u n d l in e m a n may apply for the jobs.
T h u s our reasons for concluding that the a ss u m p t io n used by H u n ter and
Sch m idt (am on g others), that restriction ot ran ge calculations should be
based on rhe entire work force, is se lf-e vid en tly the appropriate ch oice if
one wants to know the overall re la tio n sh ip ot I Q to job perform ance and
its econom ic consequences.
3. T h e A S V A R co mprises ten subtesis: G e n e r a l S cie n ce , A rith m etic R e a
soning, Word Knowledge, Paragraph C o m p r e h e n s i o n , Num erical O p e r a
tions, C o d in g Speed, A u to /S h o p In fo rm a tio n , M a th e m a tics Knowledge,
Mechanical C o m p reh en sio n , and E le c tro n ic s Information. Only N u m e r
ical O perations and C o d i n g S pe ed are h ighly speeded; the other eight are
nonspeeded "pow er tests. A ll the arm e d services use the four M A G E c o m
posites, for M ech an ical, A d m in istra tive , G e n e r a l , and Electronics sp e
cialties, each of which includes th ree o r four subrests in a particular
weighting. T h ese com posites are s u p p o s e d to p red ict a recruits trainabil-
ity tor the particular specialty. T h e A F Q T is yet anoth er com posite from
the A S V A B , selected so as to m easure g efficiently. See A p p en d ix 3.
4- A b o u t 80 percent of the sample h a d grad uated from high school a n d had
no further civilian schooling, fewer th a n 1 p e rc e n t had tailed to graduate
from high school, an d fewer than 2 p ercen t had graduated from college;
the remainder had so m e p ost-high s c h o o l c i v i l ia n schooling short of a c o l
lege degree. T h e m o dal person in t h e sa m p le was a white male betw een 19
and 20 years old, but the sample a lso inclu ded thou san ds of w o m en and
people from all A m e r ic a n ethnic groups; their ages ranged from a m in i
mum of 17 to alm ost 15 percent a b o v e 23 years (see Ree and Earles 1990b).
O th e r studies, using educationally h e t e r o g e n e o u s samples, h ave in fact
shown that, holding A F Q T co n stan t, h igh s c h o o l graduates are more likely
to avoid disciplinary action, to be re c o m m e n d e d for reenlistmenr, an d to
be promoted to higher rank than n o n g ra d u a te s (Office of the A ssista n t
Secretary of Defense 1980). C urren t e n lis t m e n t polic ies reflect the in d e
p e n d e n t predic tiveness of education, in that o f two applicants with equal

A F Q T score, the high school graduate is selected over the n ongraduate if
only one is to be accepted.
25. In fact, there m ay be some upward bias in these correlations, inasm uch as
they were n o t cross validated to exclude capitalization on chance.
26. W h a t does it m e a n to account for the observed variation ? T h in k ot it in
this way: A group of recruits finishes its training course; their grades vary.
H o w m uch less would they have varied had they entered the course wirh
the same level o f g ? T h is may seem like a hypothetical question, but it is
answered simply by squaring the correlation between the recruits level of
g and their final grades. In general, given any two variables, the degree to
which variatio n in either is explained (or accounted for, in statistical lingo)
by the other variable is obtained by squaring the correlation between them.
For exam ple, a perfect correlation of 1 between two variables m eans that
e a c h o f the variables fully explains the observed variations in the other.
W h e n two variables are perfectly correlated, they are also perfectly re
d u n d a n t sin ce if we know the value of one of them, we also know the value
o f the other without having to measure it. H ence, 1 squared is 1.0 or 100
percent. A correlation of .5 means that each variable explains, or accounts
for, 25 percent o f the observed variation in the other; a correlation of 0
m e a n s that n eith er variable accounts for any of the observed variatio n in
the other.
In the R e e and Earles study, over all eighty-nine occupational schools,
the average value of this square correlation was 58 percent (w hich corre
sp on ds to a correlation of .76). g, in other words, accounted for almost 60
percent o f the observed variation in school grades in the average military
course, on ce the results were corrected for range restriction. Even without
a correctio n for range restriction, g accounted for over 20 percent ot the
varian ce in sc h oo l grades on rhe average (corresponding to a correlation
o f .45).
27. W elsh, W atson , and Ree 1990.
28. Jo n e s 1988. A similar analysis was performed for job performance but, b e
cause o f the expense o f obtaining special performance measures, with a
m u ch sm aller sample (1 ,545) spread across just eight enlisted job special
ties (R ee and Earles 1991). T h e correlations with g in this study did not
reach the extraordinarily high levels of predictiveness as for school grades,
a n d the other cognitive factors were relatively more important for jo b per
form ance th a n for school grades points to which we shall return. But
co m b in in g th e results with the previously cited job performance study of
air force p ersonn el (Office of the Assistant Secretary o f Defense tor Force
M a n a g e m e n t and Personnel 1989), the jo b predictiveness of A F Q T for rhe
sp ecialties is correlated above .9 with the job predictiveness of g. U sin g rhe
Notes lo pages 7 7 -8 2 681
highest of the various corre la tion s b e tw een jo b perform ance measures an d

g, rhe product-m om ent co rre la tio n is .97 an d rhe S p e a r m a n rank-order c o r
relation is .93. In other words, in p re d ic tin g j o b performance, at leasr for
these jobs and these p erform ance tests, th e validity o f an A F Q T score is
virtually entirely explain ed hy how well it m e a s u r e s g, p e rse .
29. T h orn dik e 1986. T h e co m p a r iso n is b e tw e e n t h e predict iveness o f the first
factor extracted hy factor analysis o f the five c o g n it ive suhtests o f C5A T B v e r
sus the regression-weighted su btest scores them selves, for cross-validating
sam ples ot at least fifty workers in ea c h of the twenty-eight occupations.
30. Hawk 1986; Jen se n 1980, 1986; L i n n 1986.
31. For the linear relationship o f c o g n it iv e ability, see S ch m id t, O n e s, an d
Hunter 1992. For the n o n lin e a r re la tio n sh ip of jo b experiences see
Blankenship and Taylor 1938; G h is e l l i a n d B r o w n 1947; Taylor an d S m i t h
1956.
32. Flawk 1970; H u nter and S c h m i d t 1982.
33. Humphreys 1968, 1973; W ilson 1983.
34- S e e p. 66.
35. Butler and M c C a u ley 1987.
36. M cD aniel, Sch m idt, and H u n te r 1986.
37- S ch m idt et al. 1988.
38. Maier and Hiatt 1985.
39. T h is story echoes the mixed f in d in gs for th e learn in g o f simple tasks in the
psychological laboratory. D e p e n d i n g o n w h ic h measures are used to p re
dict performance and which tasks are b e in g p redicted, one can exp ec t e i
ther to see convergence of p e rf o r m a n c e with p ractice, or no co nvergence,
or even divergence under so m e c ir c u m s t a n c e s. S e e A ck erm a n n 1987.
40. S ch m id t et al. 1988. N o d a ta h a v e yet tested rhe possibility that p ro d u c
tivity diverges (the a d v an ta g e e n jo y e d by rhe sm arter em ployee increases
with experience) in ve ry -h ig h -com p lexity jo b s.
41. S e e also S c h m id t et al. 1984-
42. S e e rhe discussion in note 1 5.
43. Burke and Frederick 1984; H u n t e r an d S c h m i d t 1982; Hunter, S c h m i d t ,
a n d ju d ie s c h 1990; S c h m i d t and H u n t e r 1983; W e e k l e y e t a l . 1985. In the
technical literature, the sta n d a rd d e v i a t i o n o f productivity measured in
dollars is represented as S D v an d h a s generally b ee n estim ated to average,
over many different oc cu p a tio n s, .4 tim es th e a v e ra g e wage for the joh. T h e
corresponding figure as a p ro p o rtio n o f t h e v a lu e o f the average worker o u t
put is .2. M ethod s tor e s tim a tin g th e se d is tr ib u tio n s are discussed in the
cited references, but they in clu de su ch t e c h n i q u e s as supervisor ratings of
the dollar costs o f replacing workers at v a rio u s p oin ts in the distribution
o f workers, cost a cc o u n tin g of w orker p ro d u ct, an d scores on proficiency
tests and at work sam ple stations.
44. Recker and Huselid 1992.

45. T h e m ore contemporary estimate would place this value ar ahout $ 16,000
rather th an $8,000. A ll the other dollar estimates of the benefits of test-
in g m e n tio n e d in this section could similarly he doubled.
46. H u n te r, S ch m id t, and Judiesch 1990.
47. W e use rounds numbers to make the calculations easy to follow, bur these
are in fact close to the current medians.
48. H u n te r, S chm id t, and Judiesch 1990.
49. 25,000 x .15 = 3,750; 100,000 x .5 = 50,000; 50,000/3,750 = 13.3 3.
50. 100,000 x .5 x .6 = 30,000; 25,000 x .15 x .2 = 750.
51. T here is another point illustrated by this exercise. Recall that a validity
(corre lation ) explains only the am o unt ot variance equal to its square;
hence a validity of .4 explains only 16 percent of the variance, and this of
fers a te m ptation to dismiss the importance of intelligence as he mg of neg
ligible econom ic consequences. A n d yet when we calculated the gains to
be realized from an ability test that is less than perfectly valid as a predic
tor o f proficiency, we m ultiplied the gain from a perfect resi by rhe v alid
ity, nor by the square ot the validity. W h e n trying to estimate how m uch
o f the value of a perfect selection procedure is captured by an imperfect
substitute, the validity of the imperfect test is equal to the proportion of
th e value that is captured by it. A test w ith a validity of .4 captures 40 per
cent of the value that would be realized from a perfect test, even though it
explains only 16 percent ot the variance. Readers interested in the m a th
em atical proof, which was first derived in the 1940s, w ill find it in H unter
an d S c h m id t 1982.
52. Two of the classic discussions of the conditions under w hich testing pays
off are Brogden 1949 and C ronbach and Gleser 1965.
5 3. These correlations cover the empirical range in two senses. First, they
bracket the values found in the technical literature dealing w ith the pre-
dicriveness of intelligence. Second, they bracket rhe various occupations,
as described by Hunter, Schm idt, and their colleagues. More complex jobs
have higher correlations between intelligence and proficiency, hut almost
all c o m m o n occupations fall in the range between .2 and .6. The graphs
assume norm aliry of the predictor and outcome variables and a linear re
la tio n between them. N one of these assumptions needs to be strictly met
in order for the figure to give at least an approximately correct account of
the relationships, nor are there any know n deviations from norm ality or
linearity thar would materially alter the account.
54- W e estim ate the percentile values by assuming that proficiencies are nor
m ally distributed.
55. H u n re r and H unter 1984; S chm idt, M ack, and H unter 1984.
56. H arrigan an d W igdor 1989; H unter and Hunrer 1984-
Notes to pages 8 5 -9 6 683
57. T he data for the follow ing description, com e from H errnstein, Belke, and
Taylor 1990.
58. H unter 1979.
59. M urphy 1986.
( Chapter 4
1. Ju h n , Murphy, and Pierce 1990; Katz an d M u rp h y 1900.

2. Twenty-rhree percent for sixteen or more years of education versus 11 per
cent tor twelve or fewer years, ac cording to Katz and M urphy 1990.
Freeman 1976.
4. The wage decline in the 1970s for h ig h ly educated workers and in the 1980s
for less educated workers could co nc eiv a bly have heen due ro declines in
rhe quality of college education in the earlier period and in primary and
high school education in the later period or in corresponding changes in
the skills of people at those levels o f ed u c a tio n , as reflected, for example,
in the decline of SA T scores (B ishop 1989). Econom ists assessing this hy
pothesis have concluded rhat ir could n o t have played a m ajor role (see
Blackburn, R loom , and Freeman 1990; Ju h n , M urphy , and Pierce 1990;
Karz and M urphy 1990).
5. T he dramatic growth of female work force particip a tio n would necessitate
complex m odeling to address for the labor force as a w hole the question
here dealt w ith just for men.
6. C o m paring m en w ith sixteen or m ore years in school to those w ith fewer
than twelve years gives a 26.8 percent differential and to those with twelve
years in school gives 29.8. Since each caregory is being compared to its own
baseline, this calculation understates rhe size o f the change in actual real
wages.
7. In a slightly different approach to the data, K e v in M urphy and Finis W elch,
restricting rhe analysis to white workers, also found th at more education
had a shrinking wage benefit from 1963 to 1979, follow ed by a steeply ris
ing benefit, but only for new workers. For experienced workers, rhe wage
benefit for education did not de clin e d u rin g the earlier period, then rose
more modestly thereafter. W ork experience, in o the r words, dampened the
wage benefit for education from the 1970s to the 1980s (M urphy and
W elch 1989. See also M urphy a n d W e lc h 1993a, 199 3b ).
8. Thar intelligence is confounded w ith e d u c a tio n a l attainm e nt is hardly a
new idea. See Arrow 1973; H errnstein 1973; Jencks et al. 1972; Sewell and
Hauser 1975.
9. Ju h n , Murphy, and Pierce 1990; Katz a n d M u rp h y 1990.
10. Public em ploym ent shielded workers, especially fem ale workers, from the
rising wage prem ium for education in rhe 1980s and the rising premium
for unmeasured individual characteristics, presumably in cluding in te lli

gence. In the upper half of the wage distribution for highly educated work-
ers, the ratio of federal to private wages declined from 1979 to 1988, even
after corrections for race, age, and region of the country (C utle r and Katz
1991). T he decline was especially large tor women, perhaps because edu
cated w om en were finding relatively more lucrative alternatives outside
the government. For less educated workers in the lower h a lf of the wage
distribution, the ratio of federal to private wages rose during that internal,
again especially for women. For state and local (as distinguished from fed
eral) public employees, the rise in the ratio of public to private wages for
less educated workers was larger still.
11. Residual in the regression analysis sense. After accounting for the effects
of education, experience, gender, and their various interactions, a certain
am ount o f real wage variance remains unexplained. This is the residual
that has been growing.
12. Juhn, M urphy, and Pierce, 1990; Katz and M urphy 1990; Levy and Mur-
nane 1992.
13. Juhn, M urphy, and Pierce 1990.
14- Diligence, or conscientiousness, is one noncognitive trait that appears to
earn a wage premium (Schm idt and Ones 1992). Drive, am b itio n, and so
ciability have been examined by Filer (1981). N one of these has been as
well established as cognitive ability, nor do they appear to be as significant
in their econom ic effects.
15. Blackburn and Neumark 1991.
16. Blackburn and Neumark 1991. This study used the N ational Longitudinal
Survey of Y outh (N L SY ), a database described in the introd uctio n to Part
11.
17. Lest we convey the false impression that we are suggesting that education
per se is imm aterial, once intelligence is taken account of, we note two in
genious studies by economists Joshua Angrist and A la n Krueger ( Angrist
and Krueger 1991a, 1991b). They examined wages in relation to school
ing for school dropouts born at different times of year and for people with
varying draft lottery numbers. Dropouts in many states must rem ain in
school u n til the end of the academic year in w hich they reach a given age.
For people w ho want to drop out as soon as possible, those b o m in, say, O c
tober will spend a year in school more than those born in January. Like
wise, during the Vietnam era, people whose only reason for staying in
school was to avoid the draft would get more schooling if they had low lot
tery numbers, making them more likely to be drafted, than if they had high
numbers. In both populations, the extra schooling showed a wage benefit
later on. These findings show effects of education above and beyond per
sonal traits like intelligence, if we assume that intelligence is uncorrelated
w ith the m o n th in w hich one is born or the lottery number. Jn fact, hu-
m an births are moderately seasonal, an d the seasonality differs across races,
ethnic groups, and socioeconomic status, w h ic h may m ean that births are
seasonal w ith respect ro average in tellig ence (Lam and M iron 1991). N o
such com plication confounds the study using lottery numbers. Even so, the
generality o f these findings for po pu la tio n s other than school dropouts and
for people who stayed in school only to avoid being drafted remains to be
established.
18. A gain from the N LSY . T he sample chosen for this particular analysis was
at least 30 years old, had been out o f school for at least a year, and had
worked fifty-two weeks in 1989 (from Top Decile Analysis). T he m edian
(as distinguished from the m ean) difference in annual wages and salaries
was m uch smaller: $3,000. A bulge of very-high-income individuals in
these occupations am ong those w ith h ig h IQ s explains the gap between
the mean and the m edian. For exam ple, in these occupations, am ong those
in the top decile of IQ , the 97.5th percentile of annu al incom e was over
$180,000; for those not in the top I Q decile, the corresponding income
was $62,186.
19. T he median wage for each occupation is the wage that has as m any wages
above it as below it in the distribution of wages in the occupation. A m e
dian expresses an average that is relatively insensitive to extreme values at
either end.
20. A high IQ is also worth extra incom e outside the high- IQ occupations as
we defined them . T he wages and salaries o f people n o t in the high-IQ o c
cupations but w ith an IQ in the top 10 percent earned over $11,000 more
in 1989 (again in 1990 dollars) th an those w ith IQs below the top decile.
T he m edian fam ily incom e of those in the top I Q decile who did not e n
ter the high-IQ professions was $49,000, p u ttin g them at rhe 72d percenrile
ot family incomes.
21. S olon 1992; Z im m erm an 1992. W o m e n are n o t usually included in these
studies because of rhe analytic co m p licatio n s arising in rhe recent dramatic
changes in their work force participation. T he correlation is even higher
if the predictor o f the sons incom e is the fam ily incom e rather than just
the father's (S o lo n 1992). These estimates ot the correlation between fa
ther and son incom e represent a new fin d in g . U n til recently, specialists
mostly agreed that incom e was n o t a strong fam ily trait, certainly not like
the family c h in or the baldness th a t passes o n from generation to genera
tion, and not even as enduring as the fam ily nest egg. They had concluded
that the correlation between fathers an d sons in incom e was between .1
and .2 very low. Expert o p in io n has, how ever, been changing. T he older
estimates of the correlation between fathers and sons incomes, it turns
out, were plagued by two fam iliar problem s th a t artificially depress corre
686 N o te s to pages 1 0 1 -1 0 8
latio n coefficients. First, the populations used for gathering the estimates
were unrepresentative. O n e large study, for example, used only high school
graduates, w h ich no doubt restricted the range of IQ scores (Sewell and
Hauser 1975). A n o th e r problem has been measurement error in the case
of intergenerational comparisons of income, measurement error in tro
duced by basing the analysis on a single years income. Averaging incom e
over a few years reduces this source of error. Now, using the n atio nally rep
resentative, longitudinal data in the National Longitudinal Survey (N L S )
and the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PS1D), economists have found
the correlations o f .4 to .5 reported in the text.
22. S o lo n 1992. For comparable estimates for Great Britain, see A tkinson,
M aynard, and Trinder 1983.
23. U .S . Bureau o f rhe Census 1991b, Table 32.
24. H errnstein 197.3, pp. 197-198.
25. For reviews o f the literature as of 1980, see Bouchard 1981; P lom in and
DeFries 1980. For more recent analyses, on which we base the upper bound
estimate of 80 percent, see Bouchard et al. 1990; Pedersen er al. 1992.
26. P lo m in and L o e hlin 1989.
27. T he proper statistical measure of variation is the standard deviation
squared, u'h ich is called the variance.
28. H eritahiliry is a concept in quantitative genetics; for a good textbook, see
Falconer 1989.
29. Social scientists will recognize the heritability question as being akin to
the general statistical model of variance analysis.
30. P lo m in an d L o e hlin 1989.
31. Bouchard et al. 1990.
32. E stim ating heritahilities from any relationship other than for identical
twins is inherenrly more uncertain because the m odeling is more complex,
in v o lv in g the estim ation of additional sources of genetic variation, such as
assortative m a tin g (about w hich more below) and genetic do m in anc e and
epistasis. See Falconer 1989.
53. For a broad survey of all kinds of data published before 1981, set in to sev
eral statistical models, the best fitting of which gave .51 as the estimate of
I Q heritability, see Chipuer, Rovine, and Plom in 1990. Most of the data
are from W estern countries, but a recent analysis of Japanese data, based
o n a com parison of identical and fraternal twin correlations in IQ , yields
a h e ritability estimate of .58 (Lynn and Hatrori 1990).
34- T he extraordinary discrepancy between what the experts say in their tech
nical p u b lication s on this subject and what the media say the experts say
is well described in Snyderman and R othm an 1988.
35. C yphers et al. 1989; Pedersen et al. 1992.
36. C yphers et al. 1989; Pedersen et al. 1992.
Notes to pages 1 0 8 -1 1 0 687
37. Based prim arily on a large study of Swedish id e n tic a l and fraternal tw ins
followed into late adulthood (Pedersen et al. 1992).
38. Plom in and Bergeman 1987; Row e and P lo m in 1981.
39. IQ is not the only trait w ith a biological c o m p o n e n t that varies across so
cioeconom ic strata. H eight, head size, blood type, age at m enarche, sus
ceptibility to various congenital diseases, and so o n are some of the othe r
traits for w hich there is evidence of social class differences even in racially
homogeneous societies (for review, see Mascie-Taylor 1990).
40. T he standard deviation squared times the h e rita b ility gives variance due
just to genes; rhe square root of that num ber is rhe standard d e v ia tio n of
IQ in a world of perfectly un iform enviro nm ents: ^'(15^ x ,6) = 11.6 A
heritahility of .4 would reduce the standard d e v ia tio n from the n o rm ativ e
value o f 15 to 9.5; w ith a heritability of .8., it w o uld be reduced to 1 3.4.
41. If we take the heritability o f I Q to be .6, then th e sw ing in I Q is 24 points
tor rwo children w ith identical genes, bur grow ing up in circum stances that
are at, say, the 10th and the 90th centile in th e ir capacity ro foster in t e l
ligence, a very large swing indeed. A less extreme sw ing from the 4 0 th to
the 60th centile in environm ental conditions w o u ld m ove the average IQ
only 4-75 points. In a norm al distribution, rhe distance from the 10th to
rhe 90th percentile is about 2.5 standard d e v ia tio n units; from th e 40 th to
the 60th percentile, it is about .5 standard d e v ia tio n units. It the h e r i
tability is .8, instead of .6, th e n the swing from the 10th to the 90th pe r
centile would be worth 17 I Q points, from th e 4 0 th to th e 6 0 th , 3.4 I Q
points.
42. Burgess and W a llin 1943.
4.3. Spuhler 1968.
44. Jensen 1978. T his estimate m ay be h ig h for a variety o f te c h n ic a l reasons
that are still being explored, hut apparently n o t a lot too h ig h . For more,
see DeFries et al. 1979; Mascie-Taylor 1989; Mascie-Taylor a n d Vanden-
berg 1988; Price and V andenberg 1980; W a tk in s a n d M e re d ith 1981. In
the 1980s, some researchers argued th at data from H aw a ii in d icate d a
falling level o f assortative m a tin g for IQ , w hich they attrib u ted to increased
social m obility and greater access to higher e d u c a tio n ( A h e r n , Jo h n so n ,
and C ole 1983; Johnson, A h e rn , and C o le 1980; J o h n s o n , N ago sh i, and
A h ern 1987). But the evidence seems to be lim ite d to H aw a ii. O th e r re
cent data from Norway and V irginia, n o t to m e n t io n the n a tio n a l census
data developed by Mare and discussed in th e text, fail to c o n firm rhe
H aw aii data (H e ath et al. 1985, 1987). W h e n in te llig e n ce and e d u cation al
level are statistically pulled apart, the assortative m a tin g for e d u catio n , net
ot intelligence, is stronger th a n that for in tellig en ce, net of ed u catio n al
level (Neale and M cA rdle 1990; P hillips et al. 1988).
45. For a discussion of regression to the m ean, see C h a p te r 15. T h e calcula-
lio n in the text assumes a correlation of +.8 between rhe average c h ild s
IQ and rhe m id p o in t of the parental IQs, consistent w ith a heritahility of
.6 and a family environm ent effect of .2. The estimate of average IQ s in
1930 is explained in C hapter 1. The estimate for the class of 1% 4 (who
were freshmen in 1960) is hased on Harvard SAT-Verbal scores compared
to the E ducational Testing Services national norm study conducted in
I960, w hich indicates that the mean verbal score tor entering Harvard
freshmen was 2.9 SDs above the mean of all high school seniors and, by
im plication, considerably higher than rhat for the entire 18-year old co
hort (w hich includes the high school dropouts; Seibel 1962, Bender 1960).
If we estimate the correlation between the SAT-Verbal and IQ as +.65
(from D o nlo n 1984), the estimated mean IQ of Harvard freshmen as of
1960 was about 1 30, from which the estimate ot children's IQ has been cal
culated.
46. W ith a parent-child correlation of .8, 64 percent of rhe variance is ac
counted tor, 36 percent not accounted for. T he square root o f .^6, w hich
is .6, times 15, is the standard deviation of rhe distribution of IQ scores of
the children o f these parents. This gives a value of 9, trom w hich the per
centages in the text are estimated.
47- Operationally, Mare compared marriage among people with sixteen or
more years o f schooling with those who had fewer than sixteen years of
schooling (Mare 1991, p. 23). For additional evidence ot increasing edu
cational homogamy in rhe 1970s and 1980s, see Q ia n anti Preston 1993.
48. Oppcnheim er, 1988.
49. D B S 1992, Tables 160, 168.
50. Buss 1987. f or evidence that this p henom enon is wel I underway, see Q ia n
and Preston 1993.
51. In the NLSY, whose members graduated from high school in the period
1976-1983, 59.3 percent had obtained a bachelor's or higher degree by
1990. In the H igh School and Beyond study conducted by the Depart
m ent of Education, only 44 percent of 1980 high school graduates who
were in the top quartile of ability had obtained a B.A, or B.S. hy 1986 (Ea
gle 1988a, Table 3).
52. See C hapter 1.
53. A utho rs analysis of rhe NLSY.
54. A u tho rs analysis of the NLSY.
55. SA U S 1991, Table 17.
Introduction to Part II
1. Sussman and Steinmetz 1987. This is still a valuable source of inform ation
about myriad aspects of family life, m ainly in Am erica.
2. For example, in the last ten years, out of hundreds o f articles and research
notes, the preem inent economics journal, Am erican Economic Review,
has published just a handful of articles that caLl upon IQ as a way o f u n
derstanding such problems. T he most conspicuous exceptions are Bishop
1989; Boissiere et al. 1985; Levin 1989; Silberberg 1985; S m ith 1984-
3. T he criterion for eligibility was th at they he ages 14 to 21 on January 1,
1979, w hich m eant that some of th e m had turned 22 by the tim e the first
interview occurred.
4- Derails of the D epartm ent of Defense en listm ent tests, the A S V A B , are
also given in A p pen dix 3.
5. The test battery was administered to small groups by trained test person
nel. Thar each N L S Y subject was paid $50 to take the test helped ensure
a positive attitude toward the experience.
6. See A p pendix 3 for more on the test and itsg loading, and the In tro d u c
tion for a discussion o f g itself.
7. Raw A F Q T scores in the N L S Y sample rose w ith age throughout the age
cohorts w ho were still in their teens w hen they took the test. T he sim
plest explanation is that the A F Q T was designed by the military for a po p
ulation of recniits w ho would be taking the test in their late teens, and
younger youths in the N L S Y sample got lower scores for the same reason
that high school freshmen get lower S A T scores th a n high school seniors.
However, a cohort effect could also be at work, whereby (because of ed
ucational or broad environm ental reasons) youths born in the first half o f
the 1960s had lower realized cognitive ability th a n youths born in the last
half of the 1950s. There is no em pirical way o f telling which reason ex
plains the age-related differences in the A F Q T or what the mix o f rea
sons m ight be. T his uncertainty is readily handled in the m ultivariate
analyses by entering the subjects birthdate as an independent variable (all
the N L S Y sample took the A F Q T w ith in a few m onths o f each other in
late 1980). W h e n we present descriptive statistics, we use age-equated
centiles.
8. W e assigned the N L S Y youths to a cognitive class o n the basis of their age-
equated centile scores. W e use the class divisions as a way to com m unicate
the data in an easily understood form. It should be remembered, however,
that all of the statistical analyses are based on the actual test scores of each
individual in rhe NLSY.
9. Regression analysis is only remotely related to the regression to the m ean
referred to earlier. See A ppendix 1.
10. Age, too, is always part of the analytic package, a necessity given the n a
ture of the N L S Y sample (see note 7).
11. T he white sample for the N L S Y was chosen by first selecting all w ho were
categorized by the interview screener as non black and non-Hispanic. From
this group, we excluded all youths who identified their ow n ethnicity as

A sian , Pacific, A m erican Indian, African, or Hispanic.
Chapter 5
J . Ross et al. 1987. T he authors used the sample tapes for the 1940 and 1950
census to calculate the figures for 1939 and 1949, antedating the begin
n in g of the an n u a l poverty statistics in 1959. The numbers represent total
m oney in co m e, including government transfers. The figure for 1939 is ex
trapolated, since the 1939 census did not include data on incom e other
th a n earnings. It assumes that the ratio of poverty bused on earnings to
poverty based on total income in 1949 (.761) also applied in 1939, when
68.1 percent o f the population had earnings that put th e m below the
poverty line. S ince government transfers increased somewhat in rhe in
tervening decade, the resulting figure for 1939 should be considered a lower
bound.
It may be asked if the high poverty percentage in 1939 was an artifact
o f the G reat Depression. The numbers are inexact, but the answer is no.
T he poverty rate prior to the Depression defined by the contemporary
poverty lin e was higher yet. (See Murray 1988b, pp. 72-73).
2. See the in tro d u ctio n to Part II for more on rhe distinction between inde
pendent and dependent variables.
3. Jensen 1980, p. 281.
4. T he observed stability ot tests for children vip to 10 years o f age is reason
ably well approxim ated by rhe formula,
where r , , an d r,, are the reliabilities of the tests on occasions 1 anil 2,

C A , and C A , are the subjects chronological age on occasions 1 and 2, and
r , , is rhe correlation between a test taken and retaken at ages C A , and C A ,.
See B loom 1964 for a full discussion.
5. A fter age 10, the correlation of test scores w ill usually fall between the
pro duct of rhe reliabilities of the two tests and the square root o f their prod
uct. Thus, for example, the correlation of two measures of I Q after age 10
w hen bo th tests had reliabilities o f .9 may be expected to fall between .81
an d .9. S in ce rhe best IQ tests have reliabilities in excess of .9, this is tan
ta m o u n t to saying that the stability of scores is quire high. Follow ing are
some sam ple reliabilities as reported in the publishers test manuals. W IS C
- .95, W A 1 S = .97, W onderlic Personnel Test = .95. The reliabilities of
some of the m ajor standardized a c h ie v e m e n t tests are also extremely high.

For example: A C T = .95, S A T = 90+, C a lifo rn ia A chievem ent Tests =
.90-. 95, Iowa Test o f Basic S k ills C o m p o s ite = .98-.99. Fora longer list of
reliabilities and an accessible discussion of b o th reliability and stability, see
Jensen 1980, C h a p . 7.
6. Is there reason ro th in k that, h a d the test been administered earlier, at age
7 or 8, the results would have turned o u t diffe re n tly ! T he answer, w ith some
reservations, is no. W e would observe the norm al level of fluctuation in
tests administered at ages 7 an d 20, w ith some individuals scoring higher
and some lower as they grow up. T h e correlations between a persons IQ
ohrained at age 7 and social be hav io r in a d u lth o o d would support the same
qualitative conclusions as those based on an I Q obtained at age 20. T he
correlations using the younger scores w o uld be smaller, because they m ea
sure the adult trait of intelligence less reliably than a score obtained later
in lile. See A p p e n d ix 3 for a discussion of changes in I Q am ong the m e m
bers of the N L S Y sample.
7. H im m eltarb 1984-
8. E.g., Ryan 1971.
9. For a tew words about regression analysis, see the Intro duction to Part 11
and A p pen dix 1. In fewer words still, this is a m ethod for assessing the in
dependent im pact of each o f a set o f in d e p e n d e n t variables o n a depen
dent variable. T he specific form used here is called logistic regression
analysis, the appropriate m e th o d for binary dependent variables, such as
yes-no or female-male or m arried-unm arried.
10. W e elim inate students to av o id m islea din g ourselves with, for example,
third-year law students who h av e low incom es in 1989 but are soon ro be
m aking high incomes.
11. N o te a distinction: Age has an im p o rta n t independent effect on income
(incom e trajectories are hig h ly sensitive to age), hut not on the yes-no
question of whether a person lives above the poverty line. It is also worth
notin g that age in the N L S Y is restricted in range because rhe sample was
all born w ith in a few years of each other.
12. T he imaginary person is sexless.
13. W e refrain from precise n um e rical estim ates o f how m uch more im portant
IQ is than socioeconom ic background, for tw o reasons. First, they are not
essential to the p o in t of this discussion. S eco nd , doing so would get us in to
problems of measurement a n d m easurem ent error that would needlessly
com plicate the text. It seeins sufficient for our purpose to note that I Q has
a greater im pact o n the lik e lih o o d o f be in g poor th an socioeconomic b ack
ground, as those variables are usually measured.
14. T he 1991 poverty rate for persons 15 an d over was 1 1.9 percent, compared
692 Notes to pages 13 7 -1 4 1
to 22.4 percent for children under IS. U.S. Bureau of rhe Census, 1992,
Table 1.
1 5. For an analysis of the demographic reasons and some measurement issues,
see S m ith 1989.
16. U .S . Bureau of the Census 1992, Table C , p. xiv.
17. U .S. Bureau of the Census 1992, Table C , p. xiv.
18. Eggebeen and Lichter 1991; S m ith 1989.
19. G iv e n childless white men and women o f average age, socioeconomic
background, and IQ , the expected poverty rates are only 1.6 percentage
points apart and are exceedingly low in both cases: 5.1 and 4 7 percent, re
spectively.
20. T he relationships of IQ to poverty were statistically significant beyond rhe
.01 level for both married and unmarried women. O u r policy throughout
the book is not routinely to report significance statistics, but at the same
tim e not to present any relationship as being substantively significant u n
less we know that it also is statistically significant.
21. A n entire draft of rhe book was written using a different measure of IQ . As
described in Appendix 3, the armed forces changed rhe scoring system for
the A F Q T in 1989. T he first draft was written using the old version, A f
ter discussing the merits o f the old and new measures at length, we decided
to switch to the new one, because, for arcane reasons, it is psychomerri-
cally superior. The substantive effects of this change on the conclusions in
the book are, as far as we can tell, effectively nil. A ll of the analyses have
also been repeated with two versions of the SES index, am i m any ot them
w ith three. Again, the three versions yielded substantively indistinguish
able results. Bur each of the successive versions of the SES index was, in
our judgment, a theoretically more satisfying and statistically more robust
way of capturing the construct of socioeconomic status.
Regarding the specific analysis of the role of gender and m arital status
in mediating the relationship between IQ and poverty: O riginally, the
analysis (and the graphic included in the text on page 138) was based on
married/unmarried, men/women. T hen we looked more closely at wom en
and their various marital situations, then at those marital situations for
w om en with children. A ll of the poverty analyses were conducted w ith two
measures of poverty: the official definition (represented in this book), and
a definition based on cash incom e obtained from sources other than
government transfers. W e decided to present the results using the official
d e fin itio n to avoid an extra layer of explanation, but we have the comfort
ot knowing that the interpretation fits both definitions, except for a few
nuances that are not im portant enough to warrant a place in this concise
a n account. W e have conducted some of these analyses for age-restricted
samples, to see if things change for older cohorts in ways that are nor
captured by using age as an in d e p e n d e n t variable in rhe regression e q u a

tion. T hroughout all of these regression analyses, we were also loo k ing at
cross-tabulations and frequency distribu tion s to try to see w h a t gnom es
m ight be lurking in the regression coefficients. Finally, we duplicated all
of the analyses you see w ith and w ith o u t sam ple weights, to ensure th a t
there were no marked, mysterious differences in the two sets o f results.
There were undoubtedly other iterations a n d variations th at we have
forgotten over the last four years.
N one of this w ill be surprising to our colleagues, tor the process we have
described is S O P for social scientists engaged in com plex analyses. B ut for
nonspecialisrs, the story is worth rem em bering. It should m ake you more
skeptical, insofar as you understand th at such enterprises are n o t as elegant
and preordained as authors (in c lu d in g us) som etim es m ake it sound. Rut the
story can also give you some a d d itio n a l co nfid en ce , insofar as, w hen you
find yourself wondering w hether we considered such-and-such an alterna
tive way of looking at the data, th e chances are fairly good th at we did.
22. In passing, it just isnt so for blacks either. T he in d e p e n d e n t roles ot poverty
and socioeconom ic status are alm ost exactly the same for blacks in the
N L S Y as for whites. See C h a p te r 14-
C'hapter 6
1. Kronick and Hargis 1990.

2. For a discussion o f de fin itio n a l issues in m easuring the dro pout rate, see
K om inski 1990.
3. Most people ger their h ig h school degrees or equivalences later th a n at the
age of 17, so the figure o n page 144 im p lic itly overestimates the propor
tion of dropouts in the p o p u la tio n as a w ho le, at least for recent times. In
1985, the U .S . G o v e rn m e n t A c c o u n tin g O ffic e estimated th at 13 percent
of the po pulation between the ages o f 16 an d 24 could be characterized as
school dropouts, w hich am o u nted to 4.3 m illio n people (cited by H a h n
and Lefkowitz 1987; K ronick a n d Hargis 1990). D ro p o u t rates in some
locales may differ markedly from the n a tio n a l averages. In R oston, for
example, dropping out o f the p u b lic schools (as distinguished from losses
due to transferring out o f the school system) has recently risen above 45
percent (Camayd-Freixas and H orst 1987).
4. In 1990, the percentage o f persons ages 25 to 29 w h o had com pleted four
years of high school or more was 85.7 percent, h ig h e r th a n the plotted
graduation ratio, w h ic h is based o n 17-year-olds (N a tio n a l C e n te r for
Education 1992, Table 8).
5. Q uoted in C lig n e t 1974, p. 38. See C h a p te r 22 for a d d itio n a l discussion.
6. Tildsley 1936, p. 89.
7. These numbers represent an unweighted mean of rhe six studies of n in th

graders and the nine studies o f students who were either seniors or gradu
ates. W h e n sample sizes are taken into account, the (weighted) means for
the two groups are 104-2 and 105.5 (Finch 1946, Table 1, pp. 28-29). This
m ay understate the degree o f difference between the dropout and rhe high
school senior. O the r studies indicate that w ithin any given school, a sta
tistical relationship existed between IQ and rhe likelihood of finishing high
school. In urban areas, the size of the correlation itself could be substan
tial. In one o f the best such studies, Lorge found tor the city o f New York
in the 1930s th a t the correlation of IQ with highest com pleted grade was
+ .66 (Lorge 1942). Some of the individual studies of specific high schools
conducted during that period reviewed by Finch also showed larger differ
ences. Rut those studies tended to he subject to a num ber of technical er
rors. Even giv in g substantial weight to them, the difference between rhe
m ean I Q of the high school dropout and youths who made it to the senior
year during the 1920s was considerably less than half a standard deviation
(7.5 IQ points). Perhaps children who dropped out before the n in th grade-
had som ew hat lower IQs, so that the overall difference between diplom a
holders a n d dropouts was larger than the difference between n in th graders
and tw elfth graders. The data on this issue for the first halt of the century
are fragmentary, however.
8. If a third dropped out between n in th grade and twelfth grade, their aver
age IQ must have been 101, compared to 107 for the seniors and gradu
ates; if h a lf dropped out, it must have been 103. Assum ing a population
average of 100, this implies that those who dropped out prior to n in th grade
had still lower scores than those who dropped out afterward.
9. Iow a State Departm ent of Public Instruction, 1965.
10. D illo n 1949, quoted in Jensen 1980, p. 334-
1 1. Rased on a com parison of the academic aptitude scores of rhe n in th graders
in the sample w ho had and had not graduated from high school five years
later. T he I Q equivalents are computed from a graduate-dropout gap ot
1.14 standard deviations (SDs) for boys and 1.00 SDs for girls, or approx
im ately 1.05 S D s overall (W ise et al. 1977, Table A-3). In the late 1960s,
the Y outh in Transition study found a difference of about .8 SDs on rhe vo
cabulary subtest of the G A T B and the Gates R eading Tests between
dropouts and nondropouts, consistent with a 1 SDdifference o n a full-scale
battery o f rests (reconstructed from Table 6-1, p. 100, and Tables C - 3-7 and
C-3-8 in B a ch m an er al. 1971).
1 2. L o o k in g at these numbers, some readers will he wondering how m uch these
dro pout figures represent cause and how m uch effect. After all, w ouldn't a
person w ho stayed through high school and then took the IQ test have got-
Notes to page 147 695
ren a higher score by virtue o f staying in h ig h school? T h is question o f cause

and effect may be raised w ith all of the topics usin g the N L S Y , but: it is most
obvious for school dropout. R ut w hile age has an effect on A F Q T scores
and is always taken in to account (eithe r th ro u g h age-equated scores in the
descriptive statistics or by e n tering age as an in d e p e n d e n t variable in the
regression analyses), there is no reason to t h in k th a t presence in school is
decisive. T he simplest way to d o c u m e n t this is hy replicating the analyses
for a restricted sample of youths w h o were age 16 an d under w hen they
took the test, thereby ex cluding alm ost all of the m embers of the sample
w ho m ight create these artifacts. H a v in g d o n e so for all of the results re
ported in this chapter, we may report th a t it m akes n o difference in terms
of interpretations. W e w ill n o t present all of these duplicate results, but an
example will illustrate.
U sing rhe full sample of whites, rhe m e a n IQ s, expressed in standard
scores, of those w ho com pleted h ig h school via the norm al route, those
who got a h ig h school equivalency, an d those w ho dropped out perm a
nently were +.37, -.14, and .94 respectively. For whites w ho took the
A F Q T before they were age 17, the c o m p arab le m eans were +.54, -.04,
and -.95. T he m ain effect of using the age-restricted sample is drastically
to reduce sample sizes, w h ich we judged to be a n unnecessary sacrifice. T he
N L S Y data are consistent w ith o th e r in v estig atio ns of this issue (e.g.,
Husen and T u ijn m a n 1991). C o n tin u e d s c h o o lin g makes a modest
contribution to intellectual capital b u t nor e n o u g h to make m u c h differ
ence in the basic relationships lin k in g I Q ro othe r outcomes. C h a p te r 17
specifically discusses the im pa ct of sc h o o lin g o n IQ , an d A p p e n d ix .3 elab
orates on the relationship of sc h o o lin g to I Q in rhe NLSY.
13. O th e r data confirm this general picture. In rhe H ig h School and Beyond
n atio nal sample conducted by th e D e p a rtm e n t of E duca tion in 1980, it was
found that those in the lowest qu artile o n the co g n itiv e ability test dropped
out at a rate of 26.5 percent, co m pared to 14-7 percenr, 7.8 percent, and
3.2 percent in the next three quartiles, respectively (Barro and Kolstad
1987, Table 6.1, p. 46). S im ila r results hav e been found in o the r recent
studies of dropouts and co gn itiv e ab ility (e.g., A le x a n d e r er al. 1985; H ill
1979). C om parable rates o f d ro p p in g out across the IQ categories and
across categories defined by vocabulary test scores were also fo u n d in the
earlier Y outh in T ransition study, based o n approxim ately 2,000 m en
selected to be representative o f the n a tio n a l p o p u la tio n in the te n th grade
in 1967 (B achm an et al. 1971). For a n estim ate o f the loss in cognitive
ability that may be attributed to dro p o u t itself, see A le x and er et al. 1985.
14- T he G eneral Educational D e v e lo p m e n t e x a m is adm inistered by rhe
A m erican C o u n c il o n E du ca tio n .
15. C a m e ro n and H eckm an 1992.

16. D E S 1991, Tables 95, 97. In the NLSY, 9.5 percent of those classified as
h a v in g a h ig h school education got their certification through the G E D .
17. As depicted in, for example, Coles 1967, in his work on certain im pover
ished populations. T he relative roles o f socioeconomic background and IQ
found in the N L S Y are roughly comparable to those found for the Youth
in T ransition study based on students in the late 1960s, though the m ethod
of presentation in that study does not lend itself to a precise comparison
(B ach m a n et al. 1971, C hap. 4-6).
18. In passing, it may be noted that these results hold true for blacks as well.
O f the blacks in rhe N L S Y who permanently dropped out of school, none
was in the top quartile o f IQ . O n ly nine-tenths o f 1 percent of black per
m an en t dropouts were in the top half of I Q and the bottom half of SES.
See C h a p te r 14 as well.
19. In a logistic regression, with all independent variables expressed as stan
dard scores, the coefficients for IQ , SES, Age, and the SES x IQ interac
tio n term were 1.91, .98, -.06, and .32, respectively. T he intercept was
2.81. T h e interaction term was significant at the .005 level, and r = .38.
T he equation is predicting true for a binary variable denoting hig h school
graduation (w ith perm anent dropout as the false state).
20. Press accounts of the G E D population suggest that the typical youngster
in it had trouble w ith the routine of ordinary school and comes from u n
co m m o nly deprived family circumstances (e.g., M arriot 1993).
21. Matarazzo 1972, pp. 178-180.
22. The percentages were 68 and 2.3, respectively.
Chapter 7
1. The figure on page 1 56 also echoes some of the large m acroeconom ic forces
that we did discuss in preceding chapters. To some extent, the pool of
16-19-year-olds not in school" has changed as high schools have retained
more students longer and colleges have recruited larger numbers o f the
brightest in to college. A s the pool has changed, so perhaps has the em
ployability o f its members. T he greater em ploym ent problems shown by
the figure also fit in w ith the discussion about earnings in C hapter 4 and
the way in which incom e has stagnated at fallen for those w ithou t college
educations. For concise reviews of the empirical literature on labor supply
and unem ploym ent, see H eckm an 1993; Topel 1993. Studies focused on
young disadvantaged men include W olpin 1992; Cogan 1982; Bluestone
and H arrison 1988; C o h e n 1973; Holzer 1986. There is, o f course, a large
literature devoted explicitly to blacks. See Chapters 14 and 20.
2. W e conducted parallel analyses with a sam ple based on the m ost recent
year ot observation (hack to 1984), w h ich en abled us to include data o n
some m en w ho were being followed earlier bu t subsequently disappeared
from the N L S Y sample. The purpose was to com pensate for a p o te n tia l
source of attrition bias, o n the assumption th a t m en w ho disappeared from
the N LSY sample m ight be weighted to some degree toward those w ith the
fewest connections to a fixed address and (b y the same token) to the labor
market. T he results obtained by this m e th o d were substantively in d is tin
guishable from the ones reported.
3. W e replicated all of the analyses using the a c tu a l num ber ot weeks o u t o f
rhe labor force as the dependent variable instead o f a binary yes-no mea-
sure of w hether any time was spent out ot th e labor force. T he relative roles
ot the independent variables were the sam e as in the reported analyses,
w ith similar comparative magnitudes as w ell as the same signs and levels
i>t statistical significance. T he relationship, such as it is, does not seem to
be concentrated am ong the children of the very wealthy.
4. A more fine-grained exam ination of the data reveals that absence from the
labor force and job disabilities is extraordinarily concentrated w ith in a lim
ited set ot the lowest-status jobs. Using a w ell- know n index of jo b prestige,
the D uncan index, 46 percent of rhe reports of jo b lim itations and 63 per
cent ot those who reported being prevented from working (bur w ho were
still listing an occupation) came from jobs scored 1 to 19 on the D u n c a n
scale, w hich ranges from 1 ro 100. A total of 975 white men in the N L S Y
listed such a job as their occupation in 1990. T h e five most c o m m o n jobs
in this range, accounting for 35 percent of th e total, were truck driver, au
tom obile m echanic, consm iction laborer, carpenter, and janitor. A n o th e r
299 white males working in blue-collar jobs scored 20 to 29 o n rhe D u n
can scale. T he five most com m on jobs in th is range, accounting for 37 per
cent of the total, were welder, heavy e q u ip m e n t m echanic, other m ec han ic
and repairman, brick mason, and farmer. A n o th e r 158 white males were
working in blue-collar jobs scored 30 to 39 o n the scale. The five m ost c o m
m on jobs in this range, accounting tor 47 pe rcent of the total, were d e liv
ery m an, plum ber and pipefitter, m a c h in is t, sheet metal worker, and
fireman.
Looking over these jobs, it is not readily app aren t that the lowest-rated
jobs in terms o f prestige are also the physically most dangerous or d e
m anding. C o nstructio n work fits that de scription in the lowest category,
hut so does fireman, sheet m etal worker, a n d others in the hig he r c a te
gories. M eanw hile, some of jobs in the low est category (e.g., truck driver,
janitor) are n o t self-evidently more dangerous or physically d e m a n d in g
than some jobs in the higher categories. O r to p u t it another way: If a third
parry were given these fifteen job titles and told to rank them in terms of
p o te n tia l accidents and the importance of physical fitness, it is unlikely
th at th e list w ould also he rank-ordered according to the job prestige in
dex or even that the rank ordering would have m uch of a positive corre
latio n w ith the job prestige index.
Instead, the index was created based on the pay and training that the
jobs en ta il b o th of w hich would tend to give higher ratings to cognitively
m ore d e m an d in g jobs. A n d so indeed it works out. Here are the m ean IQ
scores of w hite males in blue-collar jobs, subdivided by groups on the
D u n c a n scale, alongside the number per 1,000 who reported some form ot
job-related health lim ita tio n in 1989:
D u n c a n Scale Score No. per 1,000

(Lim ited to Blue Collar Mean IQ w ith Job-Related
Occupations) Percentile H ealth Disability
0-9 35 th 52
10-19 40th 55
20-29 48th 32
30-39 56th 26
40-49 59rh 16
In short, the results o f rhe regression analysis indicating that I Q has an

im p o rtan t relationship to job disability even am ong blue-collar jobs, and
even after taking age and years of education into account, are not explained
away by the differences in the physical risks of these occupations. T he same
conclusion holds true when the analysis is conducted only tor blue-collar
workers and the variable years of education" is added to the equation. T he
coefficient relating I Q to likelihood of disability is about four times rhe co
efficient for years of education (w ith age as the other independent variable
co nstan t). Intriguingly, the opposite is true when the analysis is conducted
just for white-collar workers: Years of education is im portant, w iping out
any in dependent role for IQ . Interpreting this is difficult, both because
h e a lth disability is such a rare phenom enon am ong white-collar workers
an d because IQ becomes so tightly linked to advanced education, w hich
in turn is associated w ith jobs in which physical disability is virtually ir
relevant (short o f a stroke or other accident causing a m ental im pairm ent).
5. T erm an and O d e n 1947.
6. H ill 1980; Mayer and Treat 1 9 7 7 ;0 Toole 1990; S m ith and K irkham 1982.
7- G rossm an 1976; Kitagawa and Hauser 1960.
8. Resrricrion of range (sec C hapter 3) m ight also reduce the independent
role o f I Q am ong college graduates.
Notes to pages J 6 8 - 176 699
Chapter H
1. For a review of the literature about fam ily d e clin e , see Popenoe 1993.
2. U.S. Bureau of the Census 1992, Table 5 1.
3. Rctherford 1986.
4. Garrison 1968; James 1989.
5. The cognitive elite did get married at som e w hat older ages than others,
and this difference will grow as the N L S Y c o h o rt gets older. Judging from
other daia, almost all of those in the b o tto m h a lf of the I Q distribution
who w ill ever marry have already m arried by 30, whereas m any of th at 29
percent unmarried in Class 1 will e v e n tu a lly marry, raising their m ean age
of marriage by some u n k n o w n a m o u n t. If a ll o f th e m married at, say, age
40, rhe average age at marriage w o uld ap p ro ac h 30, w hich may be taken
as the highest mean that the N L S Y could plausibly produce as it follows
its sample in to m iddle age.
6. In his famous lifetime study o f in te lle c tu a lly gifted children horn around
1910, Lewis Terman found that, as o f rhe 19 30s an d 1940, highly gifred
m en eventually got married at hig he r rates th a n the natio nal norm s
ahout 84 percent, compared to a n a tio n a l rate ot 67 percent tor men of sim
ilar age. G ifte d wom en married later th a n th e average w om an, bur by their
mid-30s they too had higher marriage rates th a n the general population,
though the difference was not as great as for m en: 84 percent compared to
78 percent (Terman and O d e n 1947, p. 227).
7. C h e rlin 1981, Figure 1-5. His estim ation procedure suggests that the odds
ol eventual divorce in 1980 were 54 percent. A ls o see Raschke 1987.
8. W e are here calculating odds ratios the lik e lih o o d of m arital survival d i
vided by the lik elihoo d of divorce w ith in th e first five years from the table
on page 174- The ratio of odds ratios for m arita l survival versus divorce du r
ing the first five years of marriage was 2.7, co m parin g Class I to Class V.
9. In ad dition to the standard variables (age, parental socioeconom ic status,
and IQ ), we added date of first m arriage. W e wished to add age at first
marriage as well, bur it was so hig hly correlated w ith the date of first m ar
riage in the entire w hite sample (r = +.81) th a t the two variables could n o t
he used together. It was possible to use th e m together in some of th e sub
samples vve analyzed. T he pattern o f results was unchanged.
10. Different subsets of w hite youths, b o th th e entire sample o f those w h o had
married and the subset o f those w h o h a d reached the age of 30, an d the
subset below the age of 30 all yielded s im ila r results.
11. E.g. Raschke 1987; Sweet and Bumpass 1987.
12. H igher socioeconomic status is also associated w ith a lower probability of
divorce in the college sample, th o u g h th e in d e p e n d e n t effect of parental
SES is m uch smaller th an the in d e p e n d e n t effect o f IQ . S ocioeconom ic
700 Notes tu pages 176-179
status h ad an insignificantly direct relationship w ith divorce for the high

school sample. T h in k in g hack to the analysis of marriage, note a curious
contrast: IQ makes a lot of difference in whether high school graduates get
married but n o t in whether they get divorced. IQ makes little difference
in whether college graduates get married by the age of 30 but a lot of d if
ference in w hether they get divorced. W h y / W e have no idea. In any case,
em bedded in this com plicated set of findings are intriguing possibilities,
w hich w arrant a full-scale analysis.
13. Raschke 1987; Sweet and Bumpass 1987; Teachman et al. 1987.
14- Even a genetic com ponent has been invoked to explain the fact that d i
vorce runs in families. N ot only do children rend to follow their parents
path toward divorce, but identical twins are more correlated in their like
lihood o f divorce than fraternal twins, a difference that often betrays some
genetic, influence. M cG ue and Lykken 1992.
1 5. Those liv in g w ith only the father did as well as those living w ith both b i
ological parents.
16. See references in Raschke 1987; South 1985.
17- Bronislaw M alinow ski, Sex, Culture, and Myth (1930), quoted in Moyni-
han 1986, p. 170.
18. T he pro ductio n of illegitimate babies per unit population has also in
creased during this period, w ith the fastest growth occurring during the
1970s. In the jargon, the rate ot illegitimate births has increased as well as
the ratio. The distinction between rate and ratio raises a technical issue
that has plagued the discussion of illegitimacy in recent years. T radition
ally, illegitim acy rates have been com puted by dividing the num ber of il
legitim ate births by the number of unmarried women. In a period when
m arital patterns are also shifting, this has the effect ot co nfo un ding two
different phenom ena: the number of illegitimate births in the numerator
o f the ratio and the number of unmarried women in the denom inator. To
estimate the rate of change in the production of illegitim ate children per
u n it po pulation, it is essential to divide the number of illegitim ate births
by the entire population (or, if one prefers, by the number o f wom en of
childbearing age). This is almost never done, however, in non te chn ical
discussions (or in many of the technical ones, for rhat m atter). For a dis
cussion o f the difference this makes in interpreting trends in illegitimacy,
see Murray 1993.
19. Sweet an d Bumpass 1987, p. 95. In 1960, there were 7.3,000 never-married
mothers between rhe ages of 18 and 34; in 1980, there were 1,022,000.
20. Bachu 1991, Table 1. T he figures for ages 18 to 34 are interpolated from
th e published figures for ages 15 to 34.
2 1. N o t to m e n tio n that IQ has changed in the wrong direction tu explain in
creasing illegitim acy (see the Flynn Effect,discussed in Chapters 13 and 15).
22. A.s in the case o f school dropout, one may ask w hether having a baby out
of wedlock as a teenager caused school d ro p o u t, therefore resulting in an
artificially low IQ score. As before, the cleanest way to test the h y po the
sis is to select all the wom en who had their first hahy after they took the
test in 1980 and repeat rhe analyses reported here, introducing a control
for age at first birth. W h e n this is do ne , the relationships reported c o n
tinue to apply as strongly as, and in some cases more strongly than, they
do tor the entire sample.
A sim ilar causal tangle is associated w ith th e age at first birth. Age at
tirsr birth is a powerful explanatory variable in a statistical sense. It can
drastically change the parameters, especially th e im portance of socioeco
n om ic status and IQ , in a regression e q u a tio n . Bur, in the 1990s, w hat
causes a girl in her teens to have a hahy? Probably th e same things th at
m ight cause her to have an illegitim ate hahy: S h e grew up in a low-starus
household where having a baby young was an accepted th in g to do; she is
n o t very bright and gets pregnant in ad v e rte n tly or because she has n o t
thought through the consequences; or she is p o o r an d has a baby because
it iiff'ers better rewards than n o t having a baby, w hether those rewards are
tangible in the form of an incom e and a p a rtm e n r of her ow n through w el
fare, or in the form o f having someone to love. A n d in fact all three vari
ables parental SES, IQ , and w hether she was liv in g in poverty prior to
the birth are powerful predictors o f age at first birth, explaining 36 per
cent o f the variance. Furthermore, age at first birth c a n n o t be a cause ot
parental SES and poverty in the year prior to h irth . Em pirically, it can he
demonstrated n o t to be a cause of the A F Q T score, using rhe same logic
applied to the case of illegitimacy.
23. Rindfuss et al. 1980.
24. Abraham se et al. 1988. T he analysis is based o n a sample of 13,061 girls
w ho were sophomores in 1980 at the tim e o f th e H ig h S chool and Beyond
(H S & .B ) baseline survey and also responded to the first follow-up ques
tionnaire in 1982.
25. T he exact figures, going from the b o tto m to th e top quartile in socioeco
nomic. status, are 38.7 percent, 29.7 percent, 19.9 percent, and 11.7 per
cent, based on weighted data, com puted by th e authors from the H S & .B
database. Figures reported here and o n o th e r occasions when we refer to
the R A N D study w ill sometimes show m in o r discrepancies w ith the p u b
lished account, because Abraham se et al. used im pute d figures for certain
variables, based on schoolwide measures, w h e n in d iv id u a l data were m iss
ing. O u r calculations do n o t use any im p u te d figures. As in the R A N D
study, all results are based o n weighted analyses using the HS&.B p o p u la
tio n weights.
26. For mothers of an illegitim ate baby, the m e a n o n the test of cognitive a b il
ity was .73 S D below the m ean for all girls who had babies, and .67 S I) be
low the m ean tor all white girls (mothers and nonmothers).
27. L im iting rhe analysis to first births avoids a number ot technical problems
associated w ith differential num ber of children per w om an by cognitive
and socioeconom ic class. Analyses based o n all children born by the 1990
interview show essentially the same results, however. W e also conducted
a parallel set ot analyses using as the dependent variable w hether the
wom an had ever given birth to a child out ot wedlock (thereby adding
women w ithout any children at all ro the analysis). T he interpretations ot
the results were not markedly different for any of rhe analyses presented in
the text.
28. We are, as usual, com paring the effects ot a shift equal to +2 SDs around
the m ean for both independent variables, cognitive ability and socioeco
nom ic status.
29. Bachu 199.3, Table J.
30. Bachu 199.3, Table J.
3 1. The comparable probabilities given parental SES standard scores of -2 and
+2 were 31 percent and 19 percent.
32. The literature is extensive. Two recent reviews of the literature are M offitt
1992 and Murray 1993. See also Murray 1994.
33. The writing on this topic is m uch more extensive tor the black com m unity
than the white. See, for example, Anderson 1989; D uncan and H offm an
1990; Furstenberg et al. 1987; Hogan and Kitagawa 1985; Lundberg and
Plotnick 1990; Rowe and Rodgers 1992; Teachman 1985; M offitt 1983.
H . For a detailed presentation of this argument, see Murray 1986b.
.35. A n analysis based nor on the dichotom ous variable, poverty, but o n in-
come bad essentially the same outcome.
36. W h e n we repeat the analysis yet again, adding in the presence of rhe bio
logical father, these results are sustained. Poverty and cognitive ability re
m ain as im portant as before; the parents poor socioeconomic status does
not increase the chances ot illegitimate babies.
CJraptev 9
1. L ouchheim 1983, p. 175. See also L iebm ann 1993.

2. Bane and Elhvood 1983; Ellwood 1986b; H offm an 1987.
3. T he studies are reviewed in Bendick and C a ntu 1978.
4. H opkins er al. 1987-
5. This figure includes wom en not reflected in the table who did not go on
A F D C w ith in the first year after birth, received welfare at some later dare,
but did not become chronic recipients.
6. In all cases, we lim it the analysis to women for whom we have complete
Notes to pages I9 7 -J9 9 703
data and whose ch ild was b o m prior to January 1, 1989. W e also conducted
this analysis w ith another definitio n of short-term recipiency, lim iting the
sample to wom en whose children had been born prior to 1986, divided in to
women w ho had never received welfare subsequently and women who had
received welfare up to h a lf of the years that they were observed but did n o t
qualify as chronic welfare recipients. T he results were similar to the ones
reported in the text, w ith a large negative effect of I Q and an insignificant
role for SES.
7. Bane and Ellw ood 1983; El Iwood 1986a; Murray 1986a.
8. Ellwood 1986a; Murray 1986a.
9. W e conducted a parallel analysis com paring chro nic welfare recipients
w ith all other mothers, including those w ho had been on welfare but d id
not qualify as chronic. There are no im po rtant differences in interpreta
tion for the results o f the two sets of analyses.
10. A m o ng all white w om en, only 16 percent had not gotten a high school
diplom a, and 27 percent had achieved at least a bachelors degree.
11. O n c e again, this analysis has to be based on w om en w ith a high school
diplom a because there was no way to analyze welfare recipiency am ong
white wom en w ith B.A.s. O n ly two w hite w om en w ith B.A.s in the N L S Y
had become chronic recipients. Rut for the h ig h school graduates, rhe eh
feet of parental SES is modest slightly smaller than the independent ef
fect ot cognitive ability. This pattern was generally shared am ong wom en
who had gone on to get their G E D (recall that people w ith a G E D are n o t
included in the hig h school sample).
12. Som e of the obvious explanations are not as im portant as one m ight ex
pect. For example, most o f the high school dropouts who became chronic
welfare recipients were not poor; only 36 percent of them had been below
the poverty line in the year before birth. N o r is it correct to assume thar
all of them had babies our of wedlock; nearly half (46 percent) of their first
babies had heen born w ith in marriage. Rut 70 percent of the chronic w el
fare recipients am ong the high school dropouts had had their first child b e
fore they turned 19, w hich means that some very large proportion of them
had the baby before they would norm ally have graduated. A m o ng h ig h
school dropouts w ho had not had a child before their nineteenth birthday,
the independent relationships o f IQ an d socioeconom ic ststus shift back
toward the fam iliar pattern, w ith the effects of I Q being m uch larger th a n
those of socioeconomic status.
13. Indeed, the teenage mothers w ho did not become chronic welfare recipi
ents had a slightly lower mean IQ than those w ho did (23d centile versus
26th centile). M eanw hile, the ones w ho did n o t become welfare recipients
at all had a fractionally higher m ean socioeconom ic status than the ones
w ho did (27th centile versus 26th).
14. H aving a hig h school diplom a was an im portant variable in all ot the analy
ses of welfare, over and above the effects ot either cognitive ability or so
cioeconom ic background, and regarding either short-term or chronic
welfare recipiency. The question is whether the high school dip lo m a and
we are referring specifically ro the high school diplom a, not an equivalency
degree reflects a cause or a symptom. Does a high school education pre
pare the young w om an for adulthood and rhe world of work, thereby ten d
ing to keep her o ff welfare? O r does the act of getting a high school diplom a
reflect the young w o m an s persistence and ability to cope that rend to keep
her oft welfare? It is an im portant question; unfortunately, we were unable
to th in k o f a way to answer it with the data we have.
15. A ll are m utually exclusive groups. Criteria follow those for temporary and
chronic welfare recipiency defined earlier.
Chapter 10
1. Anderson 19.36.
2. See Bronfenbtenner 1958, p. 424, for a review of the literature through rhe
mid-1950s. For a recent empirical test, see Luster et al. 1989.
3. K ohn 1959.
4- K ohn 1959.
5. K ohn 1959, p. 366.
6. Heath 1983.
7. The study also includes Trackton, a black lower-class com m unity.
8. H eath 1982, p. 54.
9. H eath 1981, p. 61.
10. H eath 1982, p. 62.
11. Heath 1982, p. 63.
12. Gottfried 1984, p-330.
13. Kadushin 1988, p. 150.
14. Drawn from K adushin, 1988, pp. 150-151. Formally, neglect is defined by
one of rhe leading authorities, N orm an Polansky, as a situation in w hich
the caretaker permits rhe child to experience avoidable present suffering
and/or tails to provide one or more ingredients generally deemed essential
for developing a person's physical, intellectual or em otional capacities."
Q uoted in K adushin, p. 150.
15. Kaplun, 1976; S m ith and Adler, 1991; Steele 1987; Trickett et al. 1991.
16. E.g., A zar et al. 1984. For a discussion of weaknesses in the state o f k no w l
edge about causes and an argument for co n tin u in g to treat abuse and n e
glect separately, see C icchetti and Rizley 1981. See also Bousha and
Twentyman 1984; Herrenkohl e ta l. 1983.
17. Some recent reviews of the evidence on causation are Hegar and Yung-
Notes to pages 2 0 8 -2 1 2 705
m an 1989; Polansky 1981; Zuravin 1989. T h e intergenerational explana-

tio n is one of the most widely k no w n. For a review o f the literature a n d
some im po rtant qualifications to assum ptions about in terg en eratio nal
transmission, see K aufm an and Zigler 1987.
18. Besharov 1991.
19. D. Besharov and S. Besharov, quoted in P e lto n 1978, p. 608.
20. Parke and C o llm e r 1975.
21. Coser 1965; Horowitz and Liebowitz 1969.
22. Jensen and N icholas 1984; Osborne et al. 1988.
23. Leroy H . P e lto n s literature review is still excellent on the studies th ro u g h
the mid-1970s, as is G arharin os. See G a r b a r in o an d Crouter 1978; P e lto n
1978. A lso see Straus and Gelles 1986; Straus et al. 1980; Trickett e t al.
1991. Unless otherwise noted, the literature review in this section is n o t
restricted to whites.
24- U .S. D epartm ent of H ealth and H u m a n Services 1988; W olfe 1985.
25. G il 1970.
26. Reported in Pelton 1978.
27. Young and G ate ly 1988, pp. 247, 248.
28. Reported in Pelton 1990-1991.
29. K lein and Stern 1971; S m ith 1975.
30. Baldw in and O liv e r 1975.
31. C o h e n et al. 1966; Johnson and Morse 1968.
32. S m ith et al. 1974-
3 3. Pelton 1978, pp. 612-613.
34. G il 1970. Recall that C hapter 6 dem onstrated that cognitive ability was a
stronger predictor of school dropout th a n socioeconom ic status.
35. Brayden et al. 1992.
36. C ritte nd en 1988, p. 179.
37. Drotar and Sturm 1989.
38. Azar et al. 1984. See Steele 1987 for su ppo rting evidence and Kravitz a n d
Driscoll 1983 for a contrary view.
39. Bennie 1969.
40. Dekovic and Gerris 1992. For findings in a sim ilar vein, see G o o d n o w et
al. 1984; Keller et al. 1984; and K n ig h t and G o o d n o w 1988. For studies
concluding that parental reasoning is n o t related to social class, see N ew -
berger and C o o k 1983.
41. Polansky 1981, p. 43.
42. Most tantalizing of all was a prospective study in M inn e so ta th a t gave a n
extensive hattery of tests to young, socioeconom ically disadvantaged
w om en before they gave birth. In fo llo w in g u p these mothers, two groups
were identified: one consisting of thirty- eight young wom en w ith h ig h-
stress life events and adequate care o f their ch ild re n (H S - A C ), a n d th e
706 Notes to pages 2 12 -2 J 4
o the r of twelve young w o m en w ith high-stress life events and inadequate

care (H S - N C ). In the article, data on all the tests are presented in com
m en dable detail, except for IQ . In the m etho d section that lists all che
tests, an I Q test is n o t m en tio ne d. Subsequently, there is this passage, which
co n ta in s e verything we are told about the m entioned test: T he only pre
n a tal measure th at was n o t given at 3 m onths [after birth] was the Shipley-
H artford I Q measure. T he m ean scores on this measure were 26.9 for rhe
H S - A C group and 23.5 for the H S - N C group (p = .064). Egeland 1980,
p. 201. A m arginally statistically significant difference with samples of 12
and 38 suggests a sizable I Q difference.
43. F ried m an and Morse 1974; R eid and Tablin 1976; S m ith and H anson 1975.
44. W o lfe 1985.
45. Berger 1980.
46. Y oung 1964, cited by Berger 1980.
47. W o lfe 1985, pp. 473474-
48. It is understandable th a t m any survey studies cannot obtain a measure ot
IQ . But virtually all ot the studies discussed called for extensive coopera
tio n by the abusive parents. T he ad dition of a short intelligence test would
seem to have been readily feasible.
49. T he actual q u o ta tio n is dense but intriguing: Moreover, they [the British
researchers] have show n th a t parental competence (defined as sensitivity
an d responsiveness to in fa n t cues, quality of verbalization, and physical
co ntact, and related skills) and adjustm ent (e.g., low anxiety and adequate
flex ibility) were distinguishing abilities that moderated the im pact o f aver-
sive life events (W o lfe 1985, p. 478).
50. H onesty ot the respondents apart, the N L S Y data do not address this is
sue. The question about d rin k in g asked how often a wom an drank but not
ho w m u ch at any one tim e. Since a single glass of wine or beer a tew times
a week is n o t k n o w n to be harm ful, the drinking data are not interpretable.
5 1. R oug hly equal propeirtions of smokers in the low and high cognitive classes
told the interviewers th a t they had cut down during pregnancy about 60
percent o f smokers in each case.
52. Leonard er al. 1990; H ack and others 1991.
53. Low birth w eight is operationally defined as infants weighing less than
5.5 pounds at birth. T his de fin itio n , however, mixes children who are car
ried to term an d are nonetheless underweight with children w ho are born
prem aturely (w h ic h usually occurs for reasons over w hich the w om an has
n o c o n tro l) bu t w h o are otherwise o f norm al weight and developm ent. In
rhe jargon, these babies have a weight appropriate for gestational age
( A G A ) . Babies w ho w eighed less th a n 5.5 pounds but whose weight was
equal to or higher than the m edical definition of A G A (using the C o l
orado In trau te rin e G r o w th Charts) were excluded from the analysis.
54- The dip in the proportion for Class V co u ld also he an artifact of small sam
ple sizes. T he proportion (com puted using sam ple weights) is produced by
9 out ot 116 hahies. Sam ple sizes for the o th e r cognitive classes II, III,
and IV were m u ch larger: 573, 2,059, and 737, respectively.
55. Hardy and M ellis 1977.
56. Cram er 1987. In a revealing sign of the u n p o p u larity o f intelligence as an
explanatory variable, Cram er treats years of e d u catio n as a proxy measure
of socioeconom ic status. For other studies sh o w in g the relationship of ed
ucation to infant mortality, see Bross an d S h a p iro 1982; Keller and Fer-
terly 1978.
57. This is a persistent issue in infant m ortality research. There are varying
opinions about how im portant the d is tin c tio n between neonatal and i n
fant deaths may he. See Ehersrein and Parker 1984-
58. D uncan 1993.
59. T he calculation assumes that the m o th e r has average socioeconomic back
ground.
60. It measures, am ong other things, the e m o tio n a l and verbal responsiveness
and involvem ent ot rhe mother, pro vision of appropriate play materials,
variety in the daily routine, use o f p u n is h m e n t, and organization of the
child's en v iro nm ent. T he H O M E index was created and tested by Bettye
C aldw ell and Robert Bradley (C ald w e ll and Bradley 1984).
61. From Class IV to Class II, they were the 4 8 th , 60th, and 68th percentile,
respectively. For most of the assessments, in c lu d in g the H O M E index, the
N L S Y database contains raw scores, standardized scores, and centile scores.
For technical reasons, it is more accurate to w ork w ith standardized scores
than percentiles w hen co m puting group m eans, conducting regression
analyses, and so forth. O n the other h a n d , cenriles are much more readily
undersrood by rhe ordinary reader. W e hav e co nd u cted all analyses using
standardized scores, then converted the fin a l results as reported in the t a
bles back intocentiles. Thus, the centiles in th e table are not those that w ill
be produced by simply averaging rhe H O M E ce ntile scores in rhe NLSY,
62. W e replicated all of these analyses using the H O M E index as a c o n tin u
ous variable, and the substantive co nclu sion s from those replications are
consistent w ith rhe ones reported here.
63. T he H O M E index has different scoring for c h ild re n younger than 3 years
old, children ages 3 through 5, and c h ild re n ages 6 and older. W e ex am
ined the H O M E results for the different age groups and found that they
could be com bined w ithout significant Loss of precision for the interpreta
tions we describe in the text. T here is som e evidence that the m others IQ
was most im portant for the hom e e n v ir o n m e n t o f children ages 3 through
5 and least im po rtant for children ages 6 an d older, hut the differences are
not dramatic.
64. E.g., D uncan 1993 and almost anything published by the C h ild r e n s D e
fense Fund.
65. W e also conducted analyses treating family income as a continuous vari
able, which showed consistent results.
66. The poverty measure is based on whether the m other was below the
poverty line in the year prior to the H O M E assessment. Independent vari
ables were IQ , m o th e rs socioeconomic background, m others age, the test
year, and the c h ild s age group (for scoring the H O M E index).
67. The table on page 222 shows the predicted odds of being in rhe bottom
decile on the H O M E index from a regression equation, using the child's
sample weights, in w hich the dependent variable is a binary repre
sentation of w hether an N L S Y child had a H O M E score in the bottom
decile, and the independent variables were m others IQ , mother's socioe
conomic background, m others age, and nom inal variables representing
the test year, the age category for scoring the H O M E index, poverty in the
calendar year prior to the adm inistration of the H O M E index, and receipt
of A F D C in the calendar year prior to the adm inistration ot the H O M E
index.
O dds of Being in
M other's the Bottom Decile
M others S ocioeconom ic In On on the H O M E
IQ Background Poverty? Welfare? Index
Average Average No No 4%
Average Average Yes No 8%
Average Average No Yes 9%
Average Average Yes Yes 16%
Average Very low No No 7%

Average Very low Yes No 12%
Average Very low No Yes 14%
Average Very low Yes Yes 24%
Very low Average No No 10%

Very low Average Yes No 18%
Very low Average No Yes 21%
Very low Average Yes Yes 34%
Very low is defined as two SDs below the mean. Poverty and welfare
refer to rhe calendar year prior to the scoring of the H O M E index.
68. T he N LSY reported scores on these indexes for infants under 1 year o f age,
not analyzed here.
N otes to pages 2 2 9 -2 3 7 709
69. T his statem ent applies to the full white sam ple, i n rhe cross-sectional sam
ple, used for the regression results in A p p e n d ix 4, the role of birth status
(legitim ate or illegitim ate) was not s ig n ific a n t w hen entered alo n g w ith
poverty and welfare receipt.
70. A technical note that applies to the m eans reported in the table on page
2 30 and in C ha pter 15. In applying the n a tio n a l norm s, the N L S Y decline
to estimate scores for very low-scoring c h ild re n n o t covered in the P P V T s
scoring tables, instead assigning them a score o f zero. For purposes o f c o m
puting the means above and in C ha pter 15, we assigned a score o f 40 (four
SDs below the m ean, and the lowest score assigned in the standard tables
for scoring the PPV T ) to all children w ith scores under 40.
71. Careful readers may be wondering why w hite children , who have had less
than their fair share of rhe bottom decile for m ost o f the other indicators,
account for fully 10 percent of all N L S Y c h ild re n in the bottom decile. T he
reason is that the wom en of rhe N L S Y sam ple (all races) have had a h ig h
proportion o f low-lQ children, based o n rhe national norms for the
PPV T fully 23 percent of all N L S Y c h ild r e n ages 6 and older w he n they
rook rhe test had IQ s of 80 or lower. For w hites, 10 percent of the c hildren
w ho have been tested fall into the b o tto m decile. T his news is n o t q uite as
bad as it looks. Just because the N L S Y m othe rs were a nationally represen
tative sample o f wom en in a certain age group does n o t mean that their c h il
dren are a nationally representative sam ple o f children. But the news is
nonetheless worrisome, with im plications th a t are discussed in C h a p te r 15.
72. See C hapter 4 fur the discussion of h e rita h ility of IQ .
Chapter 11
1. T he proportional increases in property crim e tracked more or less w ith the

increases in v io le nt crime u n til the late 1970s. Since then, property crim e
has moved w ith in a narrow range and in 1992 was actually lower th a n it
had been ten years earlier. This divergence betw een v iolent an d property
crimes is in itself a potentially significant p h e n o m e n o n that has yet to be
adequately explored.
2. For citations of the extensive literature o n th is subject, see C h a ik e n and
C h a ik e n 1983; W ilson and H erm stein 1985. T h e official statistics may
have understated the increase in these crim es th a t people consider seri
ous enough to warrant reporting to the p o lic e , insofar as many burglaries,
assaults, and street robberies that w ould h a v e been reported in the 1950s
(w hen there was a reasonable chance th a t th e police would co nd u ct a ge n
uine investigation) are no longer reported in urban areas, where it is tak en
for granted th at they are too m inor to co m p e te for lim ited police resources.
3. A more traditional way to sort the theories is to contrast classical theories,
71.0 Notes to pages 237-242
w h ic h depict crime as the rational behavior of free agents, based on costs

and benefits, w ith positive theories, w hich look for the causes of crime in
society or in psychological makeup (for discussion of crim inological
theory, see, for example, Gottfredson and Hirschi 1990; W ilso n and
H errnstein 1985). W e are distinguishing only am ong positive theories,
because the n o tio n of criminals as rational agents seems ro fit few actual
crim in a ls an d the role of costs and benefits can readily be absorbed by a
positive theory of crim inal behavior (see W ilson and H errnstein 1985,
C h a p . 2). A distinction similar to ours between psychological and socio-
logical theories is one between psychiatric and crim inological theories
in Wessely and Taylor 1991.
4. Freeman 1983; Mayer and Jencks 1989; W ilson and Herrnstein 1985,
C haps. 11, 12.
5. C leckley 1964; Colaizzi 1989.
6. W ils o n an d Herrnstein 1985.
7. W ils o n and Herrnstein 1985.
8. Jn fact, w ith in criminological theory, the distinction between being dis
posed to break the law and being disposed to obey it has some resonance,
as illustrated in, for example, Gottfredson and Hirschi 1990. This is a tine
po in t of theory, which we cannot elaborate on here.
9. For more extended discussion of the logic of the link between IQ and co m
m ittin g crim e, see Gottfredson and Hirschi 1990; Hirschi 1969; W ilson
and H errnstein 1985.
10. G o r in g 1913.
1 1. G o d d a rd 1914.
12. M u rch iso n 1926. W e know now that this was a peculiarity ot a federal
prison like Leavenworth, w hich had relatively tew of the run-of-the-mill
offenders rypical in state prisons.
I V S u th e rla n d 1931.
14- H askell and Yablonsky 1978, p. 268.
15. R eid 1979, P. 156.
16. H irschi an d H in de lang 1977.
17. R eid 1982.
18. A balanced, recent summary says, A t this juncture it seems reasonable to
co nclu d e th at the difference [between offenders and nonoffenders in in
telligence] is real and not due to any of the possible methodological or c o n
fo u n d in g factors that have been noted in the literature (Q u ay 19H? p.
107ft'.).
19. T h e gap between offenders and nonoffenders is typically larger on verbal
th a n o n performance (i.e., nonverbal) intelligence tests (W ilso n and
H errnstein 1985). It has been suggested that this is because the essential
Notes to pages 242-245 7 11
difference between offenders an d n onoffenders is the difference in g; it is

well known that verbal scores are more d e p e n d e n t o n g than performance
scores (G o rd o n 1987; Jensen an d Faulstich 1988). A nother, nor necessar
ily inconsistent, interpretation is th a t verbal intelligence scores do better
at measuring the capacity for in te rn alizin g th e prohibitions that help de
ter crime in nonoffenders (W ils o n an d H errn ste in 1985). M u ltiple of
fenders, as distinguished from offenders in general, also have significant
deficits in logical reasoning a b ility per se (R e ic h e l and Magnusson 1988).
W hatever the reason for these patterns o f differences, the m ethodological
im plications are clear: T he rare study th a t fails to fin d much of an associ
ation between IQ and offe n d ing m ay have used nonverbal scores or scores
that, for one reason or another, m in im ize in d iv id u a l differences in g.
20. E.g., Rlum stein et al. 1985; D e n n o 1990. N a t io n a l srudies of convicts w ho
get rearrested after release also show th a t those w ith low levels of educa
tio n (w hich are presumably correlated w ith lo w rest scores) are at higher
risk for recidivism (Beck an d S h ip le y 1989).
21. Lipsitr et al. 1990.
22. Reichel and M agnusson 1988.
23. H irschi 1969; W ilso n an d H errn ste in 1985.
24. N icholson and Kugler 1991.
25. T he evidence in fact suggests th a t sm art offenders pick crimes w ith lesser
likelihood of arrest and larger payoffs ( W ils o n and Herrnstein 1985).
26. M offitt and S ilva 1988; H in d e la n g et al. 1981; Hirschi and H in d e la n g
1977; W ilson and H errnstein 1985.
27. Reichel and Magnusson 1988.
28. Kandel er al. 1988.
29. In this s a m p l e , th e re w as n o s i g n i f i c a n t c o r r e l a t i o n b e tw e e n I Q a n d s o
c i o e c o n o m i c sta tus, an d I Q r e m a i n e d a s i g n i f i c a n t p r e d i c t o r o f o f f e n d i n g
e v e n after th e e ffe c ts of p a r e n t a l S E S a n d t h e s o n s o w n level ot e d u c a t i o n
were e n te r e d as c o v a r i a r e s in a n a n a l y s i s o f c o v a r i a n c e .
30. W h ite eral. 1989.
31. W erner and S m ith 1982.
32. W erner 1989; W erner an d S m it h 1982.
3 3. For an entry in to rhis literature, see F arrin g to n and W est 1990; Gottfred-
son and Hirschi 1990; M e d n ic k and others 1987; W ils o n and Herrnstein
1985.
34- In this regard, it is perhaps w orth m e n tio n in g th a t we originally intended
for this book to be about in d iv id u a l differences generally and social policy,
w ith intelligence as the centerpiece. W e narrow ed the focus to intelligence
partly because it looms so m u c h larger th a n any other individual trait in
explaining w hat is going o n , b u t also o u t o f necessity: O n ly for crim inal
behavior is the scientific literature extensive enough to have perm itted a

thoro ughg oing presentation of individual differences other th a n intellec
tual.
35. T he most serious problem is the established and pronounced tendency of
bla ck juveniles to underreport offenses (H indelang 1978, 1981).
36. N o t surprisingly, the most serious offenders are the ones who most often
underreport their crimes. Serious offenders are also the ones most likely to
go uninterview ed in survey research. A r the other extreme, m in or offend
ers brag ab out their crim inal exploits. They inflate the real level of crim e
by p u ttin g m in o r incidents (for example, a school-yard fistfighv, w hich can
easily fit the technical definition of aggravated assault) in the same cat
egory w ith authentically felonious attacks.
Since we are focusing on the role of intelligence, self-report data pose
a special problem , for it has been observed that people of low intelligence
are less ca nd id than brighter respondents. This bias would tend to weaken
the correlation between IQ and crime in self-report data.
37. T he authoritative source on self-report data for juveniles is still H in de lang
et al. 1981. See also H indelang 1978, 1981; S m ith and Davidson 1986.
38. W olfan g, Figlio, and Sellin 1972; W ilson and Herrnstein 1985.
39. These results for the entire age range are substantially the same when age
subgroups are examined, but some differences may be found. Those who
become inv olv ed with the crim inal justice system at an early age tended
to have lower intelligence than those who first become involved later in
their teens.
40. T his represents the top decile of white males. To use the same index across
racial groups is inadvisable because of the different reporting characteris
tics o f whites and blacks.
41. For a review of the literature, see W ilson and Herrnstein 1985.
4 2 . E l li o t t a n d V o s s 1974.
43. T hornberry et al. 1985 uses the Philadelphia C o hort Study to demonstrate
rising crime after dropout for that well-known sample.
44- T he sample includes those who got a G E D most of w hom had gotten it
at the correctional institution in w hich they were incarcerated at the time
of their interview. The results are shown in A ppendix 4.
C hapter 12
1. G o v e 1964- T he definition is listed, sadly, as obsolete. W e can th in k of

n o m o d e m word doing that semantic job now.
2. M o re recently, W alter Lippm ann used civility in his worrying book (Lipp-
rna nn 1955) about what he feared was disappearing w ith the rising
Ja c o b in ism of Am erican political life, the shift he saw early in the century
away from representative g o vernm e nt tow ard populist democracy. Early in

his career as a journalist and social c o m m e n ta to r (L ippm an n 1922b), Lipp-
m an n noted that the ordinary, private person sets the concerns of
governance very low on his or her list of priorities. To govern us, he said,
we needed a special breed of person, leaders w ith the capacity to fa th o m ,
and the desire to promote, the pu b lic good. T h a t capacity is w hat he called
civility. For a reflection on L ip p m a n n s co nc e p tio n o f civility by a social
scientist, see Burdick 1959.
3. There are other rationales for n o t v o tin g , as, for example, the one pro-
moted on a T-shirt favored by libertarians: D o n t vote. It only encourages
them .
4. For an attem pt to construe v o tin g as a ratio nal act from the ec o n o m ic
standpoint, see Downs 1957.
5. Aristotle 1905 ed., p. 1129.
6. A lth o u g h the sample was not strictly representative of the A m e rican p o p
ulation, it was a broad cross-section, u n lik e ly to be atypical except as a re
sult of its underrepresentation ot rural an d m inority children. Hess and
Tomey 1967.
7. T he second graders were excluded from some ot the analyses because some
questionnaire items evoked too h ig h a rate of meaningless or nonresponses.
8. A measure o f political efficacy was based o n the children s agree or dis
agree responses to five statements, in c lu d in g : I d o n t think public offi
cials care m uch what people like me t h in k . O r, People like me d o n t have
any say about what the governm ent does.
9. Harvey and Harvey 1970.
10. The exceptions included the measures for po litical efficacy and po litica l
participation, both o f which were barely correlated w ith intelligence, a l
though slightly correlated w ith socioeco no m ic status (prim arily via
parental education, rather th an fam ily w e alth ). T he authors speculated
that the rising cynicism of the young d u rin g the later 1960s may in part ac
count for these deviant results.
11. Like other studies (e.g., N e u m an 1986, see below ), this one also fou n d that
the more intelligent someone is, the m ore likely he or she is to be liberal
on social issues and conservative o n e c o n o m ic ones. C hau vinistic, m ili
taristic, and anticom m unistic a ttitu d e were inversely related to in te lli
gence.
12. For a brief summary of this literature as o f th e late 1960s, see W h ite 1969,
who similarly concludes that p o litic a l socialization, as he calls it, is hig h ly
dependent o n intelligence itself rather th a n o n socioeconomic status.
13. Sidney Verba and N o rm an N ie (1 9 7 2 ), leadin g scholars of A m e rica n v o t
ing, distinguish cogently between the study of politics as a political scien
tist approaches ir and political psychology. A political scientist mostly

wants to understand how political participation shapes the choices a com
m u nity makes; a political psychologist tries to understand the participa
tio n itself. T his chapter comes closer to political psychology than to
p o litical science.
14- C a m p b e ll et al. I 9 6 0 ; M ilb rath and G oel 1977; Verba and N ie 1972;
W olfin ge r and Rosenstone 1980.
15. W o ltin g e r and Rosenstone 1980, p. 13.
16. Verba and N ie 1972.
17- T he one exception, the frequency with which an individual contacted po
litical officials for matters of personal concern, showed no such correla
tion, bur it is also the most ambiguously political. See Verba arid N ie 1972.
18. There are hints, however, that, it socioeconomic status had been broken
into co m pon en ts of educational level and income, educational level would
have predicted political participation better than income. See Figures 6-1
to 6-3 in Verba and Nie 1972.
19. W oltinger and Rosenstone 1980. In even-numbered years, the C P S , a sur
vey conducted m on thly of a nationally representative sample of tens of
thousands o f Am ericans, asks about voting in the N ovem ber election.
These surveys also include data on income, occupation, education, and
other personal an d regional variables. The W oltinger and Rosenstone
analysis was based on the entire sample of almost 100,000 respondents in
the N o v em be r surveys in 1972 and 1974 and a random subsample used for
more detailed m odeling. The m ain technique they used is the probit analy
sis , a form of m ultivariate analysis for estimating the changes in probabil
ity o f some dependent variable voting, in this case associated w ith a
change in an independent variable educational attainm ent, tor exam
ple after the effects of the other variables say, incom e or occupational
level are taken account of.
20. E.g., Peterson 1990.
2 1. N e u m an 1986. T his hook aggregates data from nine studies of voting be
tween 1948 and 1980 and comes up w ith a measure of political sophisti
c a tio n , w h ic h seems to have considerable power in explaining m uch about
voting, in c lu d in g simple turnout. The key causal factor for political so
phistication , N e u m a n found, is education, which explained tour times as
m uch of the variance in sophistication as the next most influential factor
in a list th a t included age, race, sex, the other components of socioeco
n om ic status, parental behavior, and region of the country.
22. W olfin ge r and Rosenstone 1980, p. 19.
23. Besides the works already cited, tor other overviews com ing to the same
basic co nclusion, see Cam pbell et al. 1960; M ilbrath and G oel 1977; N e u
m an 1986.
24. It is difficult to find support in our data for n o tio n s that a generic status
variable plays any part in the m o tiv a tio n a l fo u n d a tio n s of the decision ro
vote (W olfinger and Rosenstone 1980, p. 35). Perhaps there is some ef
fect of incom e on voting at the lowest levels b u t throug hout the range of
income, it seems to have no in d e p e n d e n t predictive value of its own.
25. Verba and N ie 1972, p. 335.
26. H ow someone votes, rather than whether, can be m ore plausibly connected
to the outward benefits gained from the o u tc o m e of an election. A n d many
political scientists focus more on p o litic a l preference than on level of en
gagement. Political preferences, too, have th e ir in d iv id u a l correlates, hut
we will not try to summarize these results as w ell (b u t see, for example,
Fletcher and Forbes, 1990; G r a n b e r g a n d H o lm b e rg 1990; M ilh ra th 1977;
N eum an 1986; N ie et al. 1976).
27. There is an indirect argument to be m ade by c o m b in in g four observations:
(1) W e know tor sure that one of the traits roug hly measured by educa
tional a ttain m e n t is intelligence. (2) A s we show ed in C ha pter 1, A m e ri
can educational opportunities are more e fficien tly distributed by cognitive
ability than they have ever been, here or elsewhere. ( 3) It is here and now
that we see the strongest correlations betw een v o tin g and educational at
tainm ent. (4) In countries where ed u cation an d cognitive ability are not
so thoroughly enmeshed, education has less im p a c t o n voting. To fill in the
story: During rhe 1950s and 1960s, the level o f p o litic a l participation rose
more rapidly th a n the educational level of the p o p u la tio n (Verba and Nie
1972, p. 252). L ooking backward, we see the othe r side of the same coin.
In 1870, only 2 percent of the A m e ric a n p o p u la tio n had finished high
school; even fewer were going to college. Yet v o tin g rates may have been
higher than they are now. K leppn er (1982) concludes that v o tin g rates
were more th an 1 1 percentage p o ints above w here they should have been,
had education had the same effects in the 1880s th at they h ad in 1968.
Shortridge (1981) has a lower estim ate of voter tu rn o u t in the late n in e
teenth century, but still one th at exceeds expectations, given the educa
tional levels ot the period. Proper historical com parisons must, of course,
take into account changes in v o tin g laws, in po ll taxes, in registration
requirements, as well as the effects of the ex te nsio n of suffrage to women
and to 18- to 20-year olds. However, after all those corrections are made,
scholars agree that past voting rates (p o s t- C iv il W ar, n in e te e n th century,
for example) are incom m ensurately h ig h or present rates are incom-
mensurately low, given the changes in levels of form al e d ucation of the
general public. Except in the S o u th o f the R e c o n stru c tio n , the correlation
between education and voting rate was n egative from 1876 to 1892, just
the reverse o f w hat it is now (see K leppn er 1982). T h e in te rn atio na l data
indicating that education is less im p o rtan t in v o tin g where education is
716 Nates to pages 261-274
n o t so enm eshed w ith cognitive ability come from M ilb rath and G oel
(1977).
28. Exposure to p o litical print media was another influential factor, but this,
too, turned out to be most strongly associated with rated intelligence (see
L uskin 1990).
29. T h e so-called Bay Area Survey, described in N eum an 1981, 1986.
.30. See note 21.
31. N e u m a n 1986, p. 117.
32. Useful summaries can be found in Abramson and Claggett 1991; H ill and
Luttbeg 1983; Kleppner 1982; Peterson 1990; Rothenberg and Lieht 1982.
33. E.g., M ilb ra th and G oel 1977. Biological and social scientists have lately
tried to enrich our understanding of political m an by show ing the links
to social behavior in other species. For background to rhe huge literature
on the variety of influences on political behavior and attitudes, see C o n
verse 1964; K in de r and Sears 1985; Rokeach 1973.
34. Harvey and Harvey 1970.
35. N e u m a n 1986.
36. Luskin 1990.
Chapter 13
1. For a useful recent critique of rhe treatment of race by psychologists, also

dem onstrating how difficult (impossible?) it is to be detached about this
issue, see Yee et al. 1993.
2. Lynn 1991c.
3. Lynn 1987a. For a critique of Lynn's early work, see Stevenson and A m m a
1983.
4. For those w ho w a n t to reconstmcr the debate, Lynns 1987 and 1991 re
view articles follow ed on earlier studies: Lynn 1977, 1978, 1982; Lynn and
H am pson 1986b. For his response to Flynn's 1987 critique, see Lynn 1987b.
5. C h a n and V ernon 1988.
6. Lynn an d S ong 1994.
7. lwaw aki and V erno n 1988; Vernon 1982.
8. Flynn 1991; Sue and Okazaki 1990.
9. Flynn 1991.
10. Lynn 1993b.
11. Lynn 1987a, 1987b, 1989, 1990a, 1990b, 1991b, 1991c, 1992, 1993a,
1993b; Lynn and H attori 1990; Lynn, Pagliari, and C h a n 1988.
12. Lynn, H am pso n, and lwawaki 1987.
13. Lynn 1991c.
14. Stevenson et a I. 1985.
Notes to pages 2 7 4 -2 7 8 717
15. Lynn 1991a, p. 733. Lynn has noted th at the m e a n w hite I Q in M in n e s o ta

is approxim ately 105, well above the average for the A m e rica n w hite p o p
ulation. O n the other hand, it is possible th a t the cities chosen in Jap a n
and Taiwan were similarly elevated.
16. A n excellent account of the literature may be found in Storfer 1990, pp.
314-321, from w hich our generalizations are tak en . For Jews in B rita in , see
also Lynn 1992.
17. Storfer 1990, pp. 321-323.
18. As reported in Jensen 1984b, p. 479.
19. Sattler 1988.
20. A detailed and comprehensive review o f the literature throug h 1980 may
he found in O sborne and M cG u rk 1982; S h u e y 1966. For an excellent one-
volum e synthesis and analysis, see L o e h lin , Lindzey, and S p u h le r 1975.
21. Standard deviations are explained in A p p e n d ix 1.
22. To qualify, all studies had to report data for b o th a w hite an d black sa m
ple, w ith a sample size of at least fifty in each group, draw n from co m p ara
ble populations th at purported to be representative o f the general
po pulation o f that age and geographic area (studies of special po pula tio n s
such as delinquents were excluded). S o c io e c o n o m ic status posed a special
problem. It a study explicitly m atched subjects by SES, it was excluded. If
ir simply drew its samples from a low-SES area, it was included, even th o u g h
some degree o f m atching had occurred. T he study had to use a stan dard
ized test o f cognitive ability, although n o t all of them were I Q tests an d n o t
all included a complete battery. If the scores were reported as IQ s, a sta n
dard deviation of 15 was im puted if no standard deviations for th a t sample
were given.
23. To get the I Q equivalent of S D differences, m u ltip ly the S D difference by
15; hence, 1.08 X 15 = 16.2 I Q points.
24. This figure is based on non-Latino whites. T h e difference betw een blacks
and the com bined white-Latino sample in th e N L S Y is 1.12 SDs. Because
the U .S. L atin o po pulation was proportionally very sm all u n til the 1970s,
the N L S Y figure for non-Latino whites is m ore com parable to the earlier
tests, in terms o f d e fin itio n of the sample, t h a n th e figure tor th e c o m b in e d
white-Latino sample, and we shall use it exclusively in discussions of rhe
N L S Y data throughout the chapter. ___________________________
25. T he form ula is a D iff. = (x - X k) / j ( N X + N ka j) / ( N + N ) , where N
is the sample size, X is the sample m ean, o is the standard d e v ia tio n , an d
w and b stand for white and black, respectively (taken from Jensen and
Reynolds 1982, p. 425). N o te th at our w h ite sam ple differs from the one
used in O ffice of the Assistant Secretary o f Defense (M a n p o w e r) (19 8 2 ).
T he w hite sample in that report in clu d e d a ll persons n o t id e n tifie d as
H ispanic or black, whereas our w hite sample also excluded persons id en

tifying themselves as A m e rica n Indians or a m em ber o f an A sian or Pacific
e thn ic group. T he N L S Y and the A F Q T are described in the In tro d u ctio n
to Part II and A p p e n d ix 2.
26. T his is a very rough estimate. A s o f 1994 there were approxim ately 32.8
m illio n blacks in Am erica. I f the estimate is com puted based on the m ean
I Q (86.7) and standard de viation (12.4) of blacks in the N L S Y , a table of
the n orm al distribution indicates th a t only about 0.1 percent, or about
33,000, w ould have IQ s of 125 or higher. If one applies the observed distri
b u tio n in the N L S Y and asks w hat proportion of blacks are in the top five
percent o f the A F Q T distribution (roughly corresponding to an I Q o f 125),
the result, 0.4 percent, implies th at the answer is about 131,000. There are
reasons to th in k th at b o th estimates err in different directions. W e co m
promised w ith 100,000.
27. For example, n o external evidence for bias has turned up w ith the W IS C ,
W A IS , Stanford-Binet, Iow a Test o f E ducational D evelopm ent, C a lifo rnia
A c h ie v e m e n t Test, SAT, A C T , G R E , LSAT, M C A T , W on de rlic Person
n el Test, G A T B , and A S V A B (in c lu d in g the A F Q T in particular).
28. If any bias has been found, it is prim arily regarding performance in school,
and it shows th at test scores for blacks often overpredict performance;
th at is, the tests are biased in favor o f blacks, tending for u n k n o w n rea
sons to predict higher performance th a n is actually observed. See A p p e n
dix 5 for details.
29. Weiss 1987, p. 121. A separate argument, made in Zoref and W illiam s
(1980), adduced evidence th at verbal items in I Q tests are disproportion
ately based o n w hite males in role-stereotyped representations. T he au
thors do n o t present evidence th at performance on these items varies by
race or gender in ways th at w ould indicate bias bu t rather in dict the tests
as a whole o n the basis of their sexism an d racism.
30. T he reason why the oarsman:regatta example has been used so often in
descriptions of cultural bias is th at it is one o f the few items in the S A T
th at looks so obviously guilty. Perhaps if a test consisted exclusively of items
th at were equivalent to the example, it w ould be possible to demonstrate
cultural bias statistically, bu t n o m odern test has more th a n a few th at come
close to oarsman:regatta.
31. T he definitive assessment o f internal evidence of bias is in Jensen 1980.
32. E.g., V alencia and R a n k in 1988; M u n fo rd and M un o z 1980.
33. For a review, see Jensen 1980.
34- T he N L S Y has higher scores for whites th a n blacks on backward digit span
and virtually n o difference at all for forward digit span. In a sim ilar way,
SES differences w ith in races are also greater for backward digit tests th an
forward digit tests (Jensen and Figueroa 1975).
35. G o rd o n 1984. See Farrell 1983, and the attached responses, for an attem pt
to explain the difference in digit span results through cultural bias hy
potheses.
36. A n o th e r co m m o nly used apparatus involves a hom e b u tto n and a pair of
other buttons, for yes and no, in response to tasks presented by a com puter
console. T he results from b o th types of apparatus are congruent.
37. T he literature is extensive, an d we are bypassing w h ic h aspect o f reaction
tim e in fact covaries w ith g. For our purposes, it is only necessary th at some
aspects do so. For some o f the issues, see, for example, Barrett, Eysenck,
and Lucking 1986; M atthew s and D o rn 1989; V ernon 1983; V ernon et al.
1985.
38. Jensen and M u n ro 1979.
39. Jensen 1993b.
40. T he dependent variable is age-equated I Q score, and the independent vari
ables are a binary variable for race (w hite or black) and the parental SES
index. T he difference between the resulting predicted IQ s is divided by the
pooled weighted standard deviation.
41 A m o n g the young w om en in the R A N D study of adolescent pregnancy de
scribed in C hapter 8 (A braham se et al, 1988), drawn from the n atio nally
representative H ig h S ch o o l and Beyond sample, the same procedure re-
duced the B /W difference by 32 percent. See also Jensen and Reynolds
1982 and Jensen and Figueroa 1975.
42. For some people, co ntro lling for status is a tacit way of isolating the ge
netic difference between the races. This logic is as fallacious as the logic
be h in d co ntro lling for SES th at ignores the ways in w h ich I Q helps deter
m in e socioeconom ic status. See later in the chapter for our views o n ge
netics and the B /W difference.
43. In other m ajor studies the B /W difference continues to w iden even at the
highest SES levels. In 1975, for example, Jensen and Figueroa (1975) ob
tained full-scale W I S C I Q scores for 622 whites and 622 blacks, ages 5 to
12, from a random sample of ninety-eight C alifo rnia school districts. They
broke dow n the scores in to ten categories of SES, using D u n c a n s index of
socioeconom ic prestige based o n occupation. They found a B /W discrep
ancy that went from a mere .13 S D in the lowest SES decile up to 1.20 S D
in the highest SES decile. G o in g to the opposite type of test data, the
Scholastic A p titu d e Test taken by m illio ns, self-selected w ith a bias toward
the upper end o f the cognitive distribution, the same pattern emerged. In
1991, to take a typical year, the B /W difference am ong students whose par
ents h a d less th a n a h ig h school diplom a was .58 S D (averaging verbal and
m athem atical scores), w hile the B /W difference am ong students whose
parents had a graduate degree was .78 S D . (N a tio n a l Ethnic/Sex D ata for
1991, unpublished data available by request from the College Board). In
their separate reviews of the literature, Audrey Shuey (whose review was
published in 1966) and Jo h n Loehlin and his colleagues (review published
in 1975) identified thirteen studies conducted from 1948 through the early
1970s th at presented IQ means for low- and high-SES groups by race, In
twelve o f the thirteen studies, the black-white difference in IQ was higher
for the higher-SES group than for the lower-SES group. For sim ilar results
for the 1981 standardization o f the WA1S-R, see Reynolds et al. 1987. A
final co m m e nt is that rhe N L S Y also shows an increasing B /W difference
at the upper end of the socioeconomic scale when the 1980 A F Q T scor
ing system is used and the scores are not corrected for skew. See A ppendix
2 for a discussion of the scoring issues.
44- Kendall, Verster, and M ollendorf 1988.
45. Kendall, Verster, and M ollendorf 1988. For another example, this tim e ot
an entire book devoted to testing in the African setting that tails to m en
tion a single m ean, see Schwarz and Krug 1972.
46. Lynn 1991c.
47. Boissiere et al. 1985.
48. O w en 1992.
49. Reynolds et al. 1987.
50. V incent 1991.
51. V incent also cites two nonnorm arive studies of children in w hich the B /W
differences ranged from only one to nine points. These are the differences
after co ntro lling for SES, w hich, as we explain in the text, shrinks the B/W
gap by about one-third.
52. Jensen 1984a; Jensen and Naglieri 1987; Naglieri 1986. They p o int out
that the K - A B C test is less saturated with g than a conventional I Q m ea
sure and more dependent on memory, both of which would tend to reduce
the B/W difference (Naglieri and Bardos 1987).
53. Jensen 1993b.
54- Based on the w hite and black SDs for 1980, rhe first year that standard do
viations by race were published.
55. W ainer 1988.
56. O u r reasons for concluding that the narrowing of the B /W differences on
the SAT was real, despite the potential artifacts involved in SA T score, are
as follows. Regarding the self-selection problem, the key consideration is
that the proportion of blacks taking the test rose throughout the
1976-1993 period (including the suhperiod 1980-1993). In 1976, blacks
w ho took the S A T represented 10 percent o f black 17-year-olds; in 1980,
the proportion had risen to 13 percent; by 199.3, it had risen to about 20
percent. W h ile this does not necessarily mean rhat blacks taking the SAT
were co m in g from lower socioeconom ic groups (the data o n parental edu
Notes to pages 292 -2 9 3 721
cation and incom e from 1980 to 1993 in d ic a te they were n o t), the pool
probably became less selective insofar as it drew from lower portions o f the
ahility distribution. The im provem ent in black scores is therefore more
likely to be understated by the S A T data t h a n exaggerated.
Howard W ain e r (1988) has argued th at changes in black test scores are
uninterpretable because of anom alies th a t co u ld be inferred from the test
scores o f students w ho did not disclose th e ir ethnicity on the S A T b ack
ground questionnaire (nonresponders). A p a r t from several technical ques
tions about W a in e rs conclusions th a t arise from his presentation, th e key
po int is that the nonresponder p o p u la tio n has dim inished substantially. A s
it has dim inished , there are no signs th a t th e story told by rhe S A T is c h a n g
ing. T he basic shape of the falling tre n d lin e for the black-white difference
cann ot plausibly be affected by nonresponders (though rhe true means in
any given year m ight well be som ew hat different from the means based o n
those who identify their ethnicity).
57. T he range of .15 to .25 S D takes the data in both the text and A p p e n d ix
5 into account. To calculate the narrow ing in IQ terms, we need to esti
mate rhe correlation between IQ an d the various measures of education al
preparation. A lower correlation w o uld sh rin k the estimate of the a m o u n t
of IQ narrow ing between blacks an d w hites, an d vice versa for a hig he r es
timate. T he two- to three-point estim ate in the text assumes th a t this co r
relation is somewhere between .6 an d .8. If we instead rely entirely o n the
SA T data and consider it to be a measure o f intelligence per se, th e n the
narrowing has been four points in I Q , bur o n ly for the p o pulation th a t ac
tually takes the test.
58. A change o f one IQ point in a generation for genetic reasons is not o u t o f
the realm o f possibility, given sufficient differential fertility. How ever, the
evidence on differential fertility (see C h a p te r 15) implies not a sh rin k in g
black-white gap but a growing one.
59. Jaynes and W illiam s 1989; Jencks an d Peterson 1991.
60. Linear extrapolations are not to be tak e n seriously in these situations. A
linear co n tin u a tio n of the black and w h ite S A T trends from 1980 to 1990
would bring a convergence w ith the w hite m ean in the year in 2035 o n
the Verbal and 2053 on the M ath . A n d w h e n it occurs, racial differences
would not be ended, for if we apply the sam e logic to the A sian scores, in
that year of 2053 when blacks and w hites b o th have a m ean o f 555 o n the
M a th test, the A sian mean would be 632. T h e A sian Verbal m ean (again,
based o n 1980-1990) would be 510 in th e year 2053, forty-seven p o ints
ahead of the w hite mean. But such is th e logic o f linear extrapolations
from a short rime period the black Verbal score would by that tim e have
surpassed the white mean by thirty-seven p o in ts and would be 500, only
ten points behind rhe Asians. In 2069, the black Verbal m ean would sun
pass the A sian Verbal mean. Linear trends over short periods of rime can
not be sensibly extrapolated much into the future, notw ithstanding how
often one sees such extrapolations in the media.
61. See A p p e n d ix 5 for A C T results. In short, the mean rose from 16.2 to in
1986 to 17-1 in 199 5. T he number of black A C T students also continued
to rise during this period, suggesting that the increase after 1986 was not
the result of a more selective pool.
62. C hapter 18 explores this line of thought further.
63. SA T trends are subject to a variety of questions relating to the changing
nature o f the S A T po ol. The discussion that follows is based on unreporteJ
analyses checking out the possibility that the results reflect these p o te n
tial artifacts (e.g., changes in the proportion of Asians using English as their
first language; changes in the proportion ot students coining from homes
where the parents did not go to college). T he discussion of these matters
may be found in C ha pter 18.
64- T he first year for w h ic h a frequency distribution ot scores by ethnicity has
been published is 1980.
65. Trying to predict trends on the basis of equivalent percentage changes from
different baselines is a treacherous proposition. A comparison w ith black
and A sian gains makes the point. For example, rhe percentage ot blacks
scoring in the 700s on the SAT-Verbal grew by 23 percent from 1980 to
1990, w ith in a percentage p o in t ot the Asian proportional increase. For
students scoring in the 600s, the black increase was 37 percent, not far be
low the A sian increase of 48 percent. The difficulty with using proportions
in this instance is th at rhe baselines are so different. Take rhe case of stu
dents scoring in the 600s on the SAT-V, for example. The proportions that
produced that 37 percenc increase for blacks were eleven students our of a
thousand in 1980 versus fifteen students out of a thousand in 1990. The
A sian change, p u t in the same metric, was from fifty-five students in 1980
to eighty-one students in 1990. For every four students per thousand thar
blacks gained in the 600 group, Asians gained twenty-six per thousand.
66. T his statem ent is based on a calculation that assumes that the 1980 dis
trib utio n of scores rem ained the same except tor the categories o f interest.
To illustrate, in 1980, 19.8 percent of black students scored from 200 to
249. In 1993, only 13.1 percent scored in that range. Suppose that we treat
the percentage distribution for 1980 as if it consisted o f 1,000 students. In
th at year, 198 o f those students scored in the 200 to 249 range. W e then
recompute the m ean for the 1980 distribution, substituting 128 for 198 in
the 200 to 249 p o in t category (assigning m idpoint values to all the inter
vals to reach a grouped m ean), so in effect we are calculating a m ean for a
fictitious p o pu lation of 1000 - 198 + 128 = 930. (Tb Iirrual ri-ilrnUir
Nates to page 295 72.3
used unrounded proportions based o n th e actual frequencies in each in

terval.)
A technical note for those w ho m ig h t wish to reproduce this analysis:
W h e n means are com puted from grouped data, the m id p o in t ot an inter
val is not necessarily the actual m ean ot people in that interval, usually be
cause more than 50 percent of the scores w ill tend to be found in the fatter
pari of the distribution covered by the interval but also because scores may
be bunched at rhe extreme categories. In the SAT-Math, for example, a
disproportionate number of the people in rhe interval from 750 to 800 have
scores ot 800 and ot those in the interval from 200 to 249 have scores of
200 (because they guessed wrong so often th a t their score is driven down
to the m in im u m ). Such effects can produce a noticeable bias in the esti
mated mean. For example, the actual verbal mean of black students in 1980
was 330. If one computes the m ean based o n rhe distribution published a n
nually by the College Board, w hich run in fifty-point intervals from 200
to 800, the result is 336.4. T he actual m e a n in 1990 was 352; the grouped
mean is 357.9. T he com puted tigure in rhe text is based on che surrogate
mean as described above compared to rhe grouped 1980 and 1990 means,
to provide a consistent framework.
67. I he contrast w ith the A sian experience o n rhe SATs is striking. The Asian
M a th m ean rose from 509 to 535. O t this increase, none of it was due to
decreases in students scoring less th an 200 (compared to 22 percent for
blacks), while a remarkable 54 percent was due to gains in the 700 and up
group (com pared ro 3 percent for blacks). M eanw hile, o n the Verbal tesc,
rhe A sian m ean rose from 596 to 415 from 1980 co 1993. O f this, only 17
percent occurred because of reductions in Asians scoring in che 200s (com
pared to 51 percent, for blacks), w hile 9 percent occurred because of in
creases in Asians scoring in the 700s (com pared to 0.4 percent for hlacks).
T he A sian increase in resc scores has hoen driven by improvements among
rhe best students, w hile the hlack increase has been driven by improve
ments am ong the worst students. W e are unable to find any artifacts in the
changing nature of the black and A s ia n S A T pools that would explain
these results. T he co ntinu ed A sian im provem ent makes ic difficult to
blame the slowdown in black im pro v em en t in the last decade on events
that somehow made it impossible for an y A m erican students to make
progress. E xplanations could be ad vanced based on events specific to
blacks.
68. Snyderm an and R o th m a n 1988. T he sam ple was based o n random selec
tions from the Members and Fellows o f the A m erican Educational R e
search Association, N a tio n a l C o u n c il o n M easurem ent in Education, six
divisions o f the A m e rican Psychological A ssociation (D evelopm ental Psy
chology, E ducational Psychology, E v a lu a tio n and Measurement, School
Psychology, C o u n se lin g Psychology, and Industrial and Organizational

Psychology), the Behavior Genetics Association, the C o g n itiv e Science
Society, and the education division of the Am erican Sociological Associ
ation .
69. Brody 1992, p. 309.
70. G o u ld 1984, pp. 26-27.
71 G o u ld 1984, p. 32. See Lew ontin, Rose, and K am in 1984, p. 127, for a sim
ilar argument.
72. G o u ld 1984, p. 33.
73. The ram ifications for public policy are dealt with in derail in Chapters 19
and 20, co nc erning affirmative action.
74- W e do not include in the text any discussion of Phillipe R u sh to n s intensely
controversial writings on the differences among Asian, w hite, and black
populations. For a brief account, see A ppendix 5.
75. A similar exam ple can be found in L ew ontin 1970, one of the most out
spoken critics of the IQ enterprise in all its manifestations.
76. T he calculation proceeds as follows: T he standard deviation of IQ being
15, the variance is therefore 225. W e are stipulating that en v iro nm en t ac
counts for .4 of rhe variance, which equals 90. The standard deviation of
the distribution o f the environm ental com ponent o f IQ is the square root
o f 90, or 9.49. T he difference between group environm ents necessary to
produce a fifteen-point difference in group means is 15/9.49, or 1.58, and
the difference necessary to produce a three-point difference is 3/9.49, or
.32. The com parable figures if heritability is assigned the lower bound value
of .4 are 1.28 and .26. If heritability is assigned the upper-bound value of
.8, then the com parable figures are 2.24 and .45.
77. Stevenson et al. 1985.
78. Lynn 1987a.
79. Frydman and L ynn 1989.
80. lwawaki an d V ernon 1988; M cShane and Berry 1988.
81. V ernon, 1982 p. 28. It has been argued that the 110 figure is too high, but
a verbal-visuospatial difference am ong A sian Am ericans is not disputed
(Flynn 1989).
82. S u pplem ental evidence has been found am ong Chinese students living in
C h in a w ho were given the SAT. Several hundred C hinese students in
S han ghai between the ages of 11 and 14 scored extremely hig h o n the M ath
SAT, despite an alm ost total lack of fam iliarity w ith A m erican cognitive
ability testing. A s a proportion of the total population, this represented a
Iar greater density o f high m ath scorers in Shanghai than in the U nited
States. Further attem pts to find hig h scorers in Chinese schools confirm ed
the original results in S hanghai (Stanley, Feng, and Zhu 1989).
83. T he S A T data actually provide even more o f a h in t about genetic origins
for the test-score pattern, though a speculative one. T h e College Board re

ports scores for persons whose first language learned is English and for those
whose first language is English and an o th e r. It is plausible to assume th a t
A sian students whose only "first language was E nglish co ntain a dispro
portionate num ber of children of m ix ed parentage, usually A s ia n an d
white, com pared to those in whose hom es b o th E nglish and an A sian la n
guage were spoken from birth. W ith rhat hypothesis in m in d , consider th at
the discrepancy between the Verbal an d M a t h SATs was (in I Q po ints)
only 1.7 points for the English only A sians a n d 5.3 points for the E n g
lish and an other first-language A sians. N o n g e n e tic explanations arc-
available. For example, one may hypothesize th a t a lth o u g h E nglish an d a n
other language were both first languages, E ng lish w asnt learned as w ell
in those homes; hence the Verbal scores for the English and an o th e r
homes were lower. Rut then one must also ex p la in why the M a th scores of
rhe English and another Asians were tw enty-one S A T p o in tsh ig h e r th a n
the English-only" homes. Here one co u ld hypothesize that the English-
o nly Asians were second- and third-generation A m ericans, more assim i
lated, and therefore d id n t study m a th as hard as their less assim ilated
friends (althou g h somehow they did q u ite w e ll in the Verbal test). But
w hile alternative hypotheses are available, the consistency w ith a generic
explanation suggests that it would be in stru ctiv e to ex am ine the scores of
children of full and mixed A sian parentage.
84- A related topic th at we do not review here is th e com parison of hlacks an d
whites on Level I and Level 11 abilities, using Je n se n s two-level theory of
m ental abilities (Jensen and Figueroa 1975; Jensen and Inouye 1980). T he
findings are consistent w ith those presented un d e r the discussion of W IS C -
R profiles and Spearm ans hypothesis.
85. Spearm ans hypothesis is named after a n observation made by C harles
Spearm an in 1927. N o tin g that the black-w hite difference varied system
atically for different kinds ot tests, S pea rm a n wrote th at the m ean differ
ence was most marked in just those [rests] w h ic h are know n to he most
saturated w ith g (Spearm an 1927, p. 379). S p e a rm a n him self never tried
to develop his co m m e nt into a formal hypothesis or to test it.
86. Jensen and Reynolds 1982.
87- Jensen and Reynolds actually com pared large sets of I Q scores w ith the
full-scale I Q score held constant statistically.
88. Jensen and Reynolds 1982, p. 427; R e y n o ld s an d Jensen 1983.
89. Jensen and Reynolds 1982, pp. 428429.
90. Jensen 1985, 1987a.
91. Jensen 1993b.
92. Braden 1989.
93. Jensen 1993b.
726 Nates to pages 303-304
94. T he correlations between g loading and black-white difference are typi

cally in the .5 to .8 range.
95. A concrete example is provided by the Kaufman Assessment Battery for
C hild ren (K - A B C ), a test that attained some visibility in part because
the separation between black and white children on it is smaller than on
more standard intelligence tests. It was later found that K -A B C is a less
valid measure of g than the standard tests (Jensen 1984a; K aufm an and
Kaufman 1983; Naglieri and Bardos 1987).
96. E.g., Pedersen et al. 1992. Jensen limits him self to discussing Spearman's
hypothesis on the phenotypic level.
97. Jensen 1977.
98. Some other studies suggesr a systematic sibling difference for national
populations, but it goes rhe other way: Elder siblings outscore younger
siblings in some data sets. However, this birth-order effect, w hen it o c
curs at all, is m uch smaller than the effect Jensen observed.
99. Jensen 1985, 1987a.
100. Various technical arguments were advanced against Jensens claim that
blacks and whites differ the most on tests that are the most highly loaded
ong. Many of these were effectively resolved w ithin the forum. O n e critic
hypothesized that Jensens findings resulted from an artifact of varying
reliabilities (Baron 1985). Jensen was able to demonstrate that correc
tions for unreliability did not wash out the evidence for Spearm ans hy
pothesis and that some of the tests w ith low g loadings had high
reliabilities to begin w ith, contrary to the critic's assumption. A n o th e r
commentator suggested that Jensen had inadvertently built in to his own
analysis the very correlation between g loading and black-white differ
ence that he purported to discover (Schonem ann 1985; see also W ilso n
1985). In the next round (rhe forum occupied two issues o f the journal),
after being apprised of a response by physicist W illia m Shockley (S h o c k
ley 1987), he withdrew his argument. A less serious criticism suggested
that black-white differences did indeed correlate with some general fac
tor that turns up to varying degrees in different intelligence tests but that
the factor may not beg (Borkowski and M axwell 1985). To this criticism,
Jensen was able to demonstrate that the g factor accounted for so large a
fraction of the total variance in test scores that no other general factor
could possibly be comparably correlated w ith Mack-white differences. A
still less serious criticism (indeed, barely a criticism at all), made by sev
eral commentators, was that the g rhat turns up in one battery of tests is
likely to differ from the g that turns up in another (e.g., K line 1985).
Jensen accepted this point, noting, however, that the variousgs are th e m
selves intercorrelated.
Now s to pages 304-306 727
A num ber of critics took a n on te ch n ic al tack. O n e set argued that

Jensens analysis was conceptually circular. For example, it g is defined as
intelligence, then tests that are loaded on g w ill he considered tests o f in
telligence. If these happen, coincidentally, to be the tests that black and
whites differ on, then Spearm ans hypothesis will seem to be confirmed,
though the lin k between the tests and intelligence was simply postulated,
not proved (Rrody 1987). For a related argum ent see M acphail 1985.
Jensen acknowledged that he had n o t tried to discuss the relationship of
g to intelligence in this particular article. A n o th e r set ot critics made
what could he called meta-critical com m ents, wondering why Jensen
should want to uncover relationships that are not very interesting (Das
1985), hurtful ro blacks (Das 1985), in im ic a l to world peace (Bardis
1985), and likely to distract atte ntio n from the possibility of raising peo-
pies g by educational means (W h im b e y 1985). N o ne of these com m en
taries disputed that rhe data show w hat Jensen said they show.
A tew years later, the last paper w ritten by the noted psychometrician,
Louis G u ttm a n , before his death, attem pted to demonstrate a m athe
m atical circularity in Jensens argument, co n c lu d in g that Spearmans hy
pothesis is true by m athem atical necessity (G u ttm a n 1992). He argued
that the factor analytic procedures rhat are used to extract an estimate
of g cann ot fail to produce a correlation between g and the B/W differ
ence. If rhe correlation is present hy necessity, concluded G u ttm an , it
can t be telling us anything about nature. T h e gist of G u ttm a n s case is
that it g is the only source o f correlation across tests, then the varying
B/W differences across tests must be correlated w ith g. Jensen and others
were quick to po in t out that n o one now believes that g is the only source
ot correlation between tests, just the largest one. W e will not try to re
produce G u ttm a n s m athem atical argum ent, n o t just because it would get
us deep in to algebra but because it was decisively refuted by other psy
chom etricians who com m ented on it and seems to have found no other
support since its publication. See Jensen 1992; L oehlin 1992; Roskam
and Ellis 1992.
101. Gustafsson 1992.
102. Mercer 1984, pp. 297-310.
103. Mercer 1988.
104- Mercer 1988, p. 209.
105. It would be useful for the reader if we co u ld present Mercers results so
that they parallel the m ethod we have be en using, in w hich the socio
cultural variables and ethnicity are treated as independent variables pre
dicting IQ , but her presentation does n o t include that analysis.
106. Mercer 1988, p. 208.
728 Notes to pages 3 0 6 -3 10
107. The critique of Mercers position has been highly technical. Readers who
have the patience will find an extended exchange between Mercer,
Jensen, and Robert G ord on in Reynolds and Brown 1984.
108. Mercer 1984, Tables 6, 9; Jensen 1984b, pp. 580-582.
109. Boykin 1986, p. 61.
110. For review, see Boykin 1986.
111. O gbu 1986.
112. Flynn 1984, 1987a, 1987b.
113. Merrill 1938.
114. Flynn 1984, 1987b; Lynn and Ham pson 1986c.
115. Flynn 1987a, 1987b.
116. Lynn and Ham pson 1986a.
117. Teasdale and O w en 1989.
1 18. For evidence that this is w hat has happened in the U n ite d States, see
Murray and Herrnstein 1992.
119. If rhe mean IQ in 1776 had been 30 and the standard de viation was what
it is today, then Am erica in the Revolutionary period had only five men
and women w ith IQs above 100.
120. Lynn and H am pson 1986a.
121. Consider the analogy of height. T he average stature o f A m ericans has
risen several inches since the Pilgrims landed at Plym outh, but height
has run in families nevertheless.
122. A shifting link between IQ and intelligence is not only possible but prob
able under certain conditions. For example, when the literacy level o f a
country rises rapidly, scores on conventional intelligence tests w ill also
rise because more people will be better able to read the test. This rise is
unlikely to be fully reflected in a rising intelligence level, at least with
equal rapidity. Flynn 1987b discusses this general measurement issue.
12 3. Scarr and W einberg 1976, 1978, 1983; W einberg, Scarr and W ald m an
1992.
124- Weinberg, Scarr, and W aldm an 1992, Table 2. T he progression of the IQ
means from two black parents to one black/one white to two w hite par
ents is not as neatly supportive of a genetic hypothesis as m ig ht first ap
pear, because there is reason to suspect that the mixed-race biological
parents of the adopted children were disproportionately drawn from co l
lege students, w hich in turn would imply that the IQ of the black parent
was well above the black mean.
125. W einberg, Scarr, and W aldm an 1992. For the technical debate, see Levin
in press; Lynn in press, w ith a response by Scarr and W einberg in Wald-
m an, W einberg, and Scarr in press.
126. W einberg, Scarr, and W aldm an 1992, Table 2. The overall decline in
Notes to pages 3 / 0-3 21 729
scores for all groups was because a new rest norm had been imposed in
the interim, vitia tin g the Flynn effect for this group.
127. W ald m a n , W einberg, and Scarr in press.
128. Eyferth 1961 For accounts in English, see L o e h lin , Lindzey, and Spuhler
1975; Flynn 1980.
129. Loehlin, Lindzey, and Spuhler 1975, C h a p . 5.
1 30. A n earlier study showed no significant association between the am ounr
of white ancestry in a sample of A m e rican hlacks and their intelligence
test scores (Scarr et al. 1977). If the whites w h o contributed this ances
try were a random sample of all whites, th e n this would be strong evi
dence of n o genetic influence on black-w hite differences. There is no
evidence one way or another about rhe nature of the white ancestors.
131. Lew ontin, Rose, and K am in 1984.
132. Scarr and W einberg 1976, Table 12.
Chapter 14
1. U .S . D epartm ent o f Labor 1993, Table 3.

2. U .S . Rureau ot the Census 1993, Table 1.
3. T he N L S Y sample does not include G E D s. N ationally, the 1991 high
school co m pletion rate (signifying twelve years of school) was 87.0 per
cent for whites, 72.5 percent for hlacks, and 55.4 percent for Latinos (N a
tional C enter for Education Statistics 1993, p. 58).
4. These results refer to a logistic analysis in w h ic h the dependent variable
was a binary variable representing o b tain in g a norm al high school diploma.
T he independent variables were age and IQ .
5. For persons ages 25 ro 29 in 1992, the proportions with bachelors degrees
were 26.7 percent for whites, 10.6 percent for blacks, and 11.4 percent for
Latinos (N a tio n a l Center tor E ducation Statistics 1993, p. 62).
6. W e lch 1973.
7. For example, given the m ean years of e d u cation for people entering rhe
high-IQ occupations defined in C ha pter 3 (16.6) and holding age constant
at the m ean, the probability th a t whites w ould be in a high-IQ occupation
was 14-4 percent compared to 12.8 percent for hlacks and 18.1 percent for
Latinos.
8. Gottfredson 1986.
9. Gottfredson 1986 leaves room for the possibility that hlacks at the upper
end of the IQ distribution were disproportionately choosing m edicine, en
gineering, or the other professions she happened to examine. Perhaps if
she had exam ined other hig h- IQ occupations (one may hypothesize), she
would have found blacks represented at or below expectations. O ur analy
sis, incorporating a broad range of h ig h- IQ occupations, makes this h y

pothesis hig hly unlikely. T he extension o f the analysis in Chapter 20 rules
it out altogether.
10. T he proportions in hig h - IQ occupations were 5.8 percent for whites, 3.1
percent for blacks, and 3.7 percent for Latinos.
11. A fte r co ntro lling for IQ , the unrounded proportions in h ig h- IQ occupa
tions were 10.4 percent for whites, 24-5 percent for blacks, an d 16.2 per
cent for Latinos.
12. Year rou n d is defined as people w ho reported being employed for fifty-
two weeks in calendar 1989 an d reported wage incom e greater th a n 0 (ex
cluding a sm all n um b er w ho apparently were self-employed and did n o t
pay themselves a wage).
13. T his result is based o n a regression analysis w he n the wage is the depen
d e n t variable, age is the in dependent variable, an d the analysis is run sep
arately for each race. T he figures reported reflect the m ean for a black and
w hite o f average age in the N L S Y sample.
14. For a more detailed technical analysis o f the N L S Y experience, reaching
the same conclusions, see O N e ill 1990. O N e ills collateral findings about
the jo in t role o f education and I Q are taken up in C hapter 19.
15. U .S . Bureau o f the Census 1993, Table 29.
16. Precisely, 64-4 percent higher, com puted using unrounded poverty rates.
17. For various approaches, see B ia n c h i and Farley 1980; Jargowsky 1993;
Massey and Eggers 1990; S m ith and W e lc h 1987, Eggebeen and Lichter
1991. For a summary o f the literature, see Jaynes an d W illia m s 1989.
18. U .S . D epartm ent o f Labor 1993, Table 3.
19. For c iv ilian males n o t in school and n o t prevented from w orking by he alth
problems.
20. W ils o n 1987, L e m an n 1991, Holzer 1986; Kasarda 1989; Topel 1993,
Jaynes and W illia m s 1989.
21. T he proportions in 1960 were 66 percent (blacks) and 72 percent (whites).
C o m p u te d from Tables 1 an d 16, N a tio n a l C e nte r for H e a lth Statistics
1993, an d comparable tables in earlier editions.
22. W illia m Julius W ils o n is best k n o w n for the lack-of-marriageable-males
thesis (W ilso n 1987), w h ic h is currently th o u g h t to have some explana
tory power (like IQ ) b u t leaves the b u lk of the discrepancy unexplained
(as does IQ ). See S o u th 1993; Fossett and K iecolt 1993; Bulcroft an d Bul-
croft 1993; S choen and Kleugel 1988; Lichter, LeClere, and M cL a u g h lin
1991. For other em pirical work bearing o n the thesis, see Bennett, Bloom ,
and C raig 1989; Tucker and Taylor 1989; S o u th and Lloyd 1992; Spanier
and C lic k 1980; Staples 1985.
23. N a tio n a l C enter for H e a lth Statistics, 1993, Table 26. Figures in the text
are for live births.
Notes to pages 3 3 1 -3 3 6 731
24- E.g., A nderson 1989; Bumpass and M c L a n a h a n 1989; D u n c a n and Laren

1990; Ellw ood and C rane 1990; Furstenberg et al. 1987; H o g an an d Kita-
gawa 1985; Lundberg and P lo tn ic k 1990; M urray 1993; Row e and Rodgers
1992; T eachm an 1985.
25. C o m p u te d from C o m m itte e o n Ways and M eans an d U .S . House of R e p
resentatives 1993, pp. 688, 697; S A U S 1993, Table 23.
26. These figures, already hig h, are even higher w he n the analysis is lim ite d
to mothers. T he percentages o f mothers w ho had ever been o n welfare for
blacks, Latinos, and whites, were 65.0,40.5 an d 21.8, respectively. W e co n
ducted parallel analyses lim ite d to w om en w ho h ad borne a ch ild prior to
1986, giving at least five years chance for a w o m an to show up o n the
A F D C roles. T his had the predictable effect o f slightly increasing the per
centages o f w om en w ho h a d ever received A F D C , b u t yielded the same
substantive conclusions.
27. Intergenerational transmission has some role. See M c L a n a h a n and
Bumpass 1988; M c L a n a h a n 1988. For other discussions tou chin g on racial
differences in welfare recipiency, see A n , H avem an, an d W olfe 1990; Bern-
stam and Sw an 1986; B ia n c h i and Farley 1980; D o n n e lly and V oydanoff
1991; D u n c a n an d H o ffm an 1990; H irschl and R a n k 1991; H offerth 1984;
H og an, H ao, and Paush 1990; H o n ig 1974; H utchens, Jackson, and
Schwartz 1987; S m ith and W e lc h 1989; W ise m an 1984, H o ffm an 1987;
R a n k 1988; Z abin et al. 1992.
28. N a tio n a l C e nte r for H e a lth Statistics 1993, Table 26.
29. Based o n the C olorado Interuterine G ro w th Charts.
30. For discussions o f reasons for the black-white gap in low-birth-weight ba
bies see D a v id 1990; Kem pe et al. 1992; M an g o ld and Powell-Griner 1991.
31. U .S . Bureau o f the Census 1993, Table 3. T he Bureau o f the Census does
n o t break out non-Latino whites in the official statistics. If one assumes
th at all persons labeled as H ispanic origin were w hite, th e n 12.9 percent
of non-Latino w hite children were under the poverty line. T his is an u n
derestimate for the actual figure, since m any persons o f H ispanic origin are
classified as black. T he figure o f 14 percent in the text is an estimate th at
attempts to compensate roughly for the underestimate.
32. T he reasons for the gap in black and w hite ch ild poverty are discussed in
the same literature th at deals w ith differences in marriage rates and ille
gitimacy, w h ich together account for m uch o f the differing fin an cial situ
ations facing black and w hite m others o f young children.
33. Various approaches to e th n ic differences in ho m e en v iro n m e n t are H e a th
1982; Bardouille-Crema, Black, and M a rtin l9 8 6 ; Field et al. 1993; Kelley,
Power, and W im b u s h 1992; M cL oyd 1990; M oore 1985; Pearson et al.
1990; R a d in 1971; Tolson an d W ils o n 1990; Wasserm an et al. 1990. A use
ful older account is Davis and H avighurst 1946.
34. See Jones 1992 on abortion, Abram son and Claggett 1991 on voting, and
E lliott and Ageton 1980 on delinquency.
35. See the references (note 33) regarding ethnic differences in hom e e n v i
ronm ent.
36. Refers to arrests for index crimes in 1992 relative to the size of the black
an d white populations. C o m puted from Federal Bureau of Investigation
1993, Table 43, and S A U S 1993, Table 22. See also W ilson and Herrnstein
1985, C hap. 18.
37. U .S . Bureau o f the Census 1993b, Table 305.
38. R . G ordon 1976, 1987.
39. W e c an n o tu se th e N L S Y self-report data for inter-racial comparisons. Self-
report crime measures have consistently revealed marked differences in the
willingness of black and white youths to disclose crimes. See E lliott and
A geton 1980; H indelang 1981; H indelang, Hirschi, and W eis 1981.
40. See the sixteen studies reviewed in Osborne and M cG urk, 1982. See also
rbe results from the Philadelphia delinquency cohort (W olfgang, Figlio,
and Sellin 1972).
Chapter 15
1. W e would, of course, need to know som ething about the fathers' scores too.
T he more complete account comes later in the chapter.
2. A lso see G hiselin and Scudo 1986; Ingle 1973.
3. Soloway 1982.
4. Francis G a b o n s coined the term eugenic. See G a lto n 1883.
5. T he eugenicists were active, but, as we noted in the Introduction, the in
telligence testers were not. For an account of what happened prior to the
passage o f the xenophobic and nativist Im m igration Restriction A c i ot
1924 and how it has gotten distorted in the retelling, see Snyderm an and
H errnstein 1983.
6. Intrinsic birth rates are birth rates corrected for age distributions. Death
rates also decline during the demographic transition, but they will not be
discussed in any detail here. Demographers generally believe that differ
e ntial death rates cease to be a m ajor factor in population growth in m o d
ernized societies like ours. T his is a supposition that needs to be reassessed,
given the probable differential im pact of infant mortalities, hom icide rates,
and A ID S in relation to tested intelligence. O f all the studies we summarize
below, only Retherford and Sewell 1988 takes m ortality rates in to account,
but it did nor have a nationally representative sample to analyze. W e may
surmise that the intergenerational decline in intelligence is being
m itigated somewhat by differential intrinsic death rates.
7. Retherford 1986; Retherford and Sewell 1988; V ining 1986; W ro n g 1980.
8. Retherford 1986; Retherford and Sewell 1988.

9. Becker 1981.
10. E.g., Retherford and Sewell 1988; Rindfuss, Bumpass, and John 1980.
11. V in in g 1982a, V in in g 1986.
12. V in in g 1986.
13. For a sam pling of studies that indicate rhe im portance o f attitudinal vari-
ables for m otherhood in many nations, see B o o th and D uvall 1981; Hass
1972; K rishnan 1990; M ason and Palan 1981; Youssef 1978.
14- Estim ating the phenotypic, as distinguished from the genotypic, change in
intelligence across generations is conceptually little more than a matter of
toting up the po pulation yielded across the distribution of intelligence,
then aggregating the subtotals to get the overall distribution of scores in
the next generation, after first taking account o f regression to the m ean
(Andrew s 1990; Falconer 1966; Retherford and Sewell 1988). It is not n e c
essary to include any estimate for rhe he ritahility of intelligence. This sim
plicity in conception should not be confused w ith sim plicity in actually
m aking these calculations. Parents in, say, succcssive deciles o f intelligence
may have differing intrinsic rates of p o p u la tio n growth (or decline) be
cause of varying lifetime fertilities, varying ages at reproduction, and vary
ing m ortality rates. Assortative m ating by the parents (see Chapter 4)
matters in calculation only insofar as it influences the correlation between
parents and children. Hence, if fertility is lower at higher levels of in te lli
gence, then assortative m ating for intelligence w ill speed the decline of the
po pu lation intelligence because it increases rhe correlation between par
ents and children. Som e o f the studies th at we cite focus on the genotypic
decline rather th an the phenotypic (e.g., Retherford and Sewell 1988).
Since children resemble the parents w ho rear th e m for environm ental rea
sons as well as genetic, the population pheno type will change more rapidly
than the p o pulation genotype.
15. T he best review of the early studies is A nastasi 1956. See also D uncan
1952; O ln e c k , W olfe, and Dean 1980; Retherford and Sewell 1988; Van-
Court and Bean 1985; V in in g 1986.
16. C atte ll 1936, C a tte ll 1937.
17. Retherford and Sewell 1988.
18. C o ok, 1951 p. 6.
19. As O sborn and Bajema (1972) stated, T he distribu tion of births in an in
dustrial welfare-state democracy would becom e more eugenic as the e n v i
ronm ent im proved w ith respect to he alth, ed ucational, and occupational
opportunities, and particularly w ith respect to the spread of birth control
to the po in t where freedom of pare ntho od becam e a reality for all citizens
(p. 344). T he Eugenic Hypothesis was first stated in Osborn 1940.
20. M axw ell 1954; Scottish C o u n cil for Research in Education 1949.
21. C a tte ll 1951. See also T uddenham 1948.
22. Higgins, Reed, and Reed 1962.
23. Bajema 1963, 1971; O ln eck, W olfe, and Dean 1980; W aller 1971- In ad
ditio n, as we explained in C hapter 1 3, the Flynn Effect would have masked
any decline in I Q by demographic processes.
24- C a tte ll 1974; Osborne 1975.
26. V in in g 1982b.
27. V an C o u rt and Bean 1985.
29. Ree and Earles 1991a.
30. T he simplest way to get around the estimates that scholars have derived
would be to measure the IQs of successive generations, follow ing parents
and their children, but surprisingly tew studies of any size measure cogni
tive ability in both parents and children, and those few have always been
small studies conducted for specific purposes; none has m et the crucial cri
terion o f n atio nal representativeness. In the U n ite d States, the N L S Y has
the po tential to yield such estimates, if the study continues long enough,
because it has already initiated a program of testing the children ot rhe
N L S Y mothers. A s o f now, however, it provides no interpretable data about
the n atio nal population as a whole. T he women of the N L S Y are only part
way through their childbearing years (ages 25 to 3 3 as of our last observa
tio n), an d the children ot the sample are atypical in that they were
disproportionately born to young mothers, who may differ in their child-
rearing practices from older mothers. The sample is still missing altogether
m any o f the children of wom en w ho delay childbearing, w ho in turn are
disproportionately women w ith advanced education and high IQs. We
can use the mother-child testing data to extract a few clues about ethnic
differences, described later in this chapter.
31. See C ha pter 17.
32. N o t everyone agrees that it is worrisome. In a recent co ntributio n to the
fertility debate, Samuel Preston and C am eron C am pbell (199 3) challenge
che premise that negative differential fertility on the microlevel must mean
falling n atio nal intelligence on the macrolevel. Such negative differentials
are com patible, they argue, w ith a constant, improving, or deteriorating
intelligence distribution in the population as a whole. It all depends on
how the current differentials relate to past and future fertility patterns. The
argum ent is densely m athem atical, and neither the article nor the two ac
co m panying com mentaries lend themselves to easy summary. Interpreting
the argum ent is com plicated by the fact that rhe authors operationalized
their model w ith one o f the only data sets in w hich the fertility difteren-
rial is nor negative. However, rhe narrowest m athe m atical im plication o f

their m odel remains accurate: It is possihle to postulate conditions rhar
produce a constant or even rising IQ in the face of negative fertility d if
ferentials. There is no reason to suppose that those special conditions pre
vail now or have in rhe recent past. James C o le m a n (1993) similarly points
our in his com m entary that these hypo thetical conditions do not have
m uch to do w ith w hat is k no w n about the history of fertility, concluding
that their rejection of the co m m o n belief ab o u t the effect of fertility d if
ferences is not warranted. W h a t they have d o n e is n o t to answer the ques
tions involved, but to frame the problem in a most useful way (p. 1032).
3 3. A population has a limited num ber ot ova a n d an unlim ited number of
sperm. Therefore, w hat matters for replacem ent (net ot m igration) is how
m any females are horn and whar their fertilities are. Hence, since slightly
more than 50 percent of births are males and since a few of the females do
nor reach the age of reproduction, the average w om an needs to have a p
proximately 2.1 births ro attain replacem ent fertility.
34. Sweet and Rindfuss 1983, Fig. 2. O th e r countries similarly show the im
pact of education on fertility. A study of M e x ican women in w hich ur
banization, occupation, m igration, and ed ucation were examined for their
effects on fertility found that education was the m ain depressant. See Pick,
Butler, and Pavgi 1988.
35. Based on com pleted fertility for wom en ages 35 to 44 in the Bureau of the
Censuss C urrent Population Survey, a n a tio n a lly representative sample,
in June 1992 (B achu 1993, Table 2). T he m e a n IQ represents the aggre
gated means by educational level. T his ca lc u la tio n assumes that the m ean
IQ of w om en at various educational levels is th e same for women born from
1948 to 1957 (the natio nal sample represented in the figure on page 349)
as it was for the N L S Y wom en b o m from 1957 to 1964. Is this plausible?
W o m e n born from 1948 to 1957 graduated from hig h school from 1966 to
1975, after the percentage o f students fin ishin g h ig h school had hit its peak,
after rhe m ajor shifts in educational recruitm ent to college had already
changed for whites, and after aggressive affirm ative action had begun for
blacks and to some extent for Latinos. W e c a n th in k of no reason to as
sume that the m ean IQ of N L S Y w om en ( b o m from 1957 to 1964) at d if
ferent levels o f educational a ttain m e n t was systematically different th a n
for the cohort o f wom en b o m from 1948 to 1957, though it could have
been.
36. T he data report the education ot the m other at the tim e she has a ch ild ,
but a very young m other may later go back to finish high school, and a
wom an w ith a bachelors degree may return for a masters or a Ph.D. In as
cribing IQ s based on educational a ttain m e n t, it is im portant to base them
o n the final attainm e nt, n o t just o n the years o f education at the tim e of
736 Notes to page 3 5 1
birth. O u r procedure for do in g so was as follows: Using the N L S Y , we first

established the difference between education at the tim e of birth and ed
ucation as of 1990, w hen the youngest wom an in the N L S Y was reaching
26. In rhe first version o f our procedure, it was assumed that the propor
tio n o f wom en w ho gave b irth at ages 26 to 33 (the age range o f 98 per
cent o f N L S Y wom en by the 1990 interview) who would subsequently
move in to a new educational category (the categories were 0-11, 12,
13-15, 16, and 17 or more years of education) was extremely small. W e
then com puted an adjusted version of the table showing births by age by
race in N ational C enter for H ealth Statistics 1993, Table 20, assuming
eventual educational attainm e nt equal to that observed in rhe N L S Y (for
example, 36.1 percent of N L S Y wom en who had ten years of education
when they first gave birth reported twelve years of education by 1990; we
recomputed the N C H S cell assuming that 36.1 percent of the wom en in
the N C H S figures who were shown as having ten years of education would
eventually get twelve). W e then used the adjusted matrix ot births by age
hy race to estimate IQs, using the N L S Y mean IQs for wom en w ith eq uiv
alent years of education. Note that this com putation must be done using
separate estimates by race, because of the large discrepancy between the
IQs o f blacks and whites of equivalent years of education. This first itera
tio n yielded an estimated m ean IQ of mothers for the 1991 U .S . birth co
hort of 97-9. We then repeated the process, using a sample lim ited ro births
that occurred hy the end o f 1986, m eaning that each m other had at least
four years of postbirth observation to see if she went back ro school. This
version avoided the assumption that women ages 26 and over seldom go
back to school, at the cost of reducing sample sizes and perhaps in trod u c
ing some unrepresentativeness into the truncated sample. T he estimated
lQ fo r the mothers o f 1991 U .S . birth cohort using this procedure was 98.0.
37. T he actual figure, based on all births through 1990, was 95.7. It is produced
by taking the mean (using sample weights as always) ot the I Q associated
w ith the m other of each ch ild born to an N LSY mother.
38. O u t of every 100 wom en ages 30 to 34 in 1990, only 2 had their first birth
that year; atrer age 34, the proportion fell rapidly to near zero. See Bachu
1991, Table 4. W e realize that m any readers know personally ot numerous
women w ho had their first babies in their late thirties. It is one more use
ful example of the difference between the world in which most ot our read
ers live and the rest of the country.
39. W o m e n of the N L S Y w ho had reached ages 32 to 3.3 may be expected to
have borne about 83 percent of all the babies they will ever bear (in te r
polated from N ational C e nte r for H ealth Statistics 1991, Table 2).
40. The biases w ill understate the age differential by cognitive class because
(based o n know n patterns o f childbearing by women o f different educa
Notes to pages 3 5 2 -3 5 6 737
tional groups) the largest change in the final m ean age of births will occur
am ong the brightest women.
41. Bachu 1993, Table 2.
42. T his fin din g echoes points made in other places. W e showed earlier (see
C hapter 8) th a t it is not IQ per se th a t depresses fertility bur the things
that a higher I Q results in, such as more education (see Retherford and
Sewell 1989; Rindfuss, M organ, and Spicegood 1980). A t given IQ scores,
blacks get more schooling than either whites or Latinos (Chapters 13, 18).
H ence we should n o t be surprised that, at given IQ scores, blacks have
lower fertility th an either of the other groups; they are more likely to be
still in school.
43. Rindfuss, M organ, and Spicegood 1980; O sborne 1973; C h e n and M organ
1991b.
44- C h e n and M organ 1991a; Rindfuss, M organ, and Spicegood 1988.
45. T he qu o tation is taken from Baker and M o tt 1989, p. 24-
46. To m en tio n just one o f the most im po rtant reasons to hedge, the p a rtic i
pation of L atin o mothers in the N L S Y testing program was com paratively
low, m aking rhe white-Latino com parison quite tentative. A n d as we c a u
tioned in C hapter 14, the PPV T is probably less valid for Latinos than for
other groups. T his may bear on the com parison between Latino-white d if
ferences am ong mothers and am ong children . In any case, the figure for
the apparent dysgenic effect for the Latino-white comparison is sm all
enough to deter strong conclusions.
In contrast, the black-white apparent dysgenic effect is large, and we
exam ined it using several m ethods to see it it m ig ht be spurious. T he table
on page 356 reports the results using the children's sample weights, and
com paring tested children w ith the mothers o f those children, c o unting a
m other more than once if she had more th a n one ch ild and counting the
same child more than once if he or she had been tested in more than one
year (after tu rning 6). If we repeat the same calculation but in cluding all
children who were tested (inclu din g those under the age of 6), the black-
w hite difference am ong the mothers is 13.9 points, compared to a differ
ence am ong the children of 20.0 points, an even larger dysgenic difference
than the one produced by the children ages 6 an d older. A n othe r approach
is to discard the sample weights (w hich are problem atic in several respects,
when com paring across test years) and instead restrict the sample to c h il
dren b o m to m others who were in the cross-sectional N L S Y sample. D o
ing so for all children w ho took the P P V T after the age o f 6 produces a
B /W difference o f 14.8 points for the m others and 18.1 points for the c h il
dren, or a dysgenic difference o f 3.3 points. D o in g so for all children w ho
took the P P V T produces a B /W difference o f 14.9 points for the m others
and 19.4 for the children, or a dysgenic difference o f 4.5 points.
O u r next step was to examine separately the results from the three rest
years (1986, 1988, and 1990). For the children who were 6 or older when
they took the test (w hich again shows a smaller difference- than w hen the
test includes nil children), the B /W differences tor the three test years,
using sample weights, were 5.9, 1.9, and 3.0 points, respectively. T he dif
ferences across test year did not affect the conclusion that a significant
dysgenic effect exists, but the reasons for the differences are worth inves
tigating.
In our attempt to see whether the dysgenic effect could be attenuated,
we repeated all of these analyses w ith one difference: Instead of using the
n a tio n a l norms for the PPV T (normed to a mean of 100 and S D of 15), we
let the N L S Y children be their ow n reference group, com paring the hlack
and w hite scores using the observed mean and standard deviation for all
N L S Y children who took the test. This procedure reduces the estimate of
the dysgenic effect. For example, rhe results, using sample weights, for the
ch ild re n w ho were 6 and older, showed an increasing B /W gap of 1.9 points
instead o f the 3.9 points produced by using the n atio nal norms. T he diffi
culty in interpreting this finding is that the procedure itself has no good
rationale. The PPVT national norms seem to have been properly deter
m ined . If anything, the Flynn effect should mean rhar the N L S Y children,
tak in g the test anywhere from seven to eleven years after the norms were
established, should have a 2- to 3-point IQ edge when compared to rhe n a
tional norms. So we have no reason to thin k that rhe lower estimate is the
correct one, hut it does represent the best way we could concoct to m in i
mize the B /W dysgenic effect.
Finally, we explored how the births to N L S Y wom en might affect these
findings by comparing black and white women who had nor borne a child
as of 1990. The mean IQ for the childless white wom en was 106.6, c o m
pared to 100.3 for childless hlack women. T hat black w om en w ithout c h il
dren have a mean of 100 is in itself striking evidence of the low fertility
am o ng rhe top part of the black IQ distribution, but even if subsequent fer
tility for the two groups is the same, the B/W gap in the next generation
w ill presumably continue to diverge as the N L S Y wom en com plete their
fertility.
47. N ew York Times. S lighting words, fighting words. Feb. 13, 1990, p. A24.
48. T he co m pu tatio n in rhe text counts each m other as many times as she had
ch ild re n w ho were tested. If instead each m other is counted only once, the
white-black difference am ong mothers is 1.12 SDs. T he w hite-Latino dif
ference is 1.05 SDs.
49. A u ste r 1990; Rouvier 1991; G o u ld 1981; S im on 1989; W attenherg 1987;
W atte n b e rg and Zinsmeister 1990.
50. H o ld e n 1988.
N otes to pages 3 5 8 -3 6 7 739
51. E.g., H ig h am 1973; Lukacs 1986.

52. S im o n 1989. For a symposium, see S im o n er al. 1993.
53. Auster 1990, and various contributors in S im o n er al. 1993.
54. Rouvier and Davis 1982. T his particular estim ate is based o n a n n u a l im
m igration of 1 m illio n .
55. T he figures for rhe 1950s, 1960s, an d 1970s were 11 percent, 16 percent
and 18 percent respectively. S A U S 1992, T able 14 (SALJS 1971, Table 4).
56. Lynn 1991.
57. S A U S 1992, Table 8. T he figures also in clu de s oncc-illegal im m igrants w ho
were granted perm anent residence under th e Im m igration R eform and
C o ntrol A c t of 1986.
58. Sowell 1981.
59. A first, elementary consideration is thar th e N L S Y data refer alm ost ex
clusively to the children of the adults w ho decided to im m igrate. W h a t
ever self-selection for I Q m ight have existed in the elders will be less visible
in their offspring.
60. C arliner 1980; C hisw ick 1978; G a b rie l 1991.
61. Borjas 1987. Borjass fo rm u la tio n also draws o n Roy 1951 an d Sjaastad
1962. In forthcom ing papers, Bor j as has since extended his analysis
through rhe 1990 census, show ing a c o n t in u a t io n of rhe trends from 1970
ro 1980. Borjas 1993, 1994.
62. Borjas 1987, Table 3.
63. Sowell 1981, p. 220.
64. Borjas 1987, Table 1
65. Borjas 1987, p. 552.
66. The procedure is lim ite d to the N L S Y s cross-sectional sample (i.e., o m it
ting rhe supplem ental samples), so th a t sam ple weights are no longer an
issue. U sing random num bers, subjects w ith I Q scores above 97 h a d an
equal chance of being discarded. Because different subsamples could yield
different results, we created tw o separate sam ples w ith a m ean of 97 and
replicated all of the analyses. T he d ata reported in the table on page .368
represent the average produced by th e tw o replications, compared to the
n atio nal m ean as represented by u n w e ig h te d calculations using the entire
cross-sectional sample.
67. Chattel I 1938, as reprinted in C a tte ll 1983.
68. C a tte ll 1983, pp. 167, 168.
69. C atte ll 1983, PP. 167, 175.
70. C atte ll 1983, pp. 167, 169.
71. The procedures parallel those used for the preced in g analysis of a m ean o f
97.
72. In effect, our sample w ith a m e a n o f 97 show s w h a t happens w hen people
w ith above-average IQ s decrease their fertility, a n d our sample of 103 shows
w hat happens when people w ith below-average IQs decrease theirs. W h e n

we changed the N L S Y sample so that the mean fell to 97, we used a ran-
do m variable to delete people w ith IQs above 97 until the average reached
97. T his did not do m uch to get rid of people who had the problems; most
o f its effect was to dim in ish the supply o f people w ithout problems. W h e n
we changed the N L S Y sample so that the mean rose to 103, we were ran
dom ly deleting people w ith IQs below 103. In the course of that random
deletion, a significant num ber of people toward rhe bottom of the distrib
u tio n our Classes IV and V were deleted. Suppose instead we had low
ered the I Q to 97 by randomly duplicating subjects w ith IQs below 97. In
that case, we would have been sim ulating what happens when people with
below-average IQs increase their fertility, and the results would have been
more closely symmetrical w ith the effects shown for the 103 sample.
73. These figures continue to be based on the cross-sectional N L S Y sample,
used throughout this exercise. The 1989 poverty rate for the entire N LSY
sample, calculated using sample weights, was 10.9 percent.
Chapter 16
1. A woman was classified as a chronic welfare recipient if she had received

welfare for at least five years by the 1990 interview. W o m e n w ith in c o m
plete data on A F D C in the years follow ing the birth of the first child or
whose first child was born after 1985 were not scored on this variable.
2. W e do not weight the com putations (or the overrepresentation of below-
average IQ mothers, but we continue to use sample weights.
3. T his represents the m ean of the mothers o f the N L S Y children, w ith each
m other counted once for each illegitimate child. Because of the inverse re
lationship between IQ and the number of illegitimate children, the mean
co u nting each m other o f an illegitimate child only once was higher: 89.
4. A s in the case of illegitimacy, IQ and rhe number of children of divorced
and separated mothers were inversely related. W h e n the m other is counted
only once regardless of the number of children, the m ean is 94.
5. See C hapter 10 for a description of this intelligence test (rhe PPV T ).
C/wpter 17
1. A brief refresher (see Chapter 4): A heritahility of 60 percent (a mid-range

estimate) says that 40 percent of the observed variation in intelligence
w ould disappear if a magic wand wiped out the differences in those aspects
o f the environm ent rhat bear on intelligence. G iv e n that variance is the
standard deviation squared and that the standard deviation of IQ is 15, this
m eans that 40 percent of 15' is due ro environm ental variation, w hich is
to say that the variance would drop from 225 to 135 and the standard de
viation would contract to 11.6 instead o f 15 it all the en v iro nm en tal

sources of variation disappeared.
2. A healthy m in d in a healthy body. Som e of the history is recounted in
Lynn 1990b. Abstracts of a series of studies by Stephen S choenthaler and
his associates on rhe effects of diet on intelligence and on antisocial, crim
inal behavior are in Schoenthaler 1991.
3. Stein et al. 1972.
4. Lynn 1990b.
5. Benton and Roberts 1988.
A. A t the age of 12 and 13, youngsters scores rise during an eight-m onth pe
riod in the natural course o f events. T he dietary supplement, then , is af
fecting the rare of increase of the nonverbal, but not the verbal, scores.
7. S choenthaler et al. 1991.
8. W 1SC-R. Block Design, a highly g-Ioaded subtest of W IS C - R , showed lit
tle or no benefit of the food supplement.
9. Earlier work suggesting that reductions in refined sugar increase in telli
gence are now being reinterpreted as the effect not o f sugar per se but of
shifting rile diet away from foods w ith little in the way of vitam ins and
minerals lo more nutritious foods; see S cho enthaler et al. 1991; Schoen-
thaler Doraz, and W akefield 1986. T he basic p o in t is that we have almost
no idea of the pathway between diet or food supplements and intellectual
developm ent; assuming there is a path, ir co u ld be long and w inding.
10. A child taking a pill that gives, say, one R D A is getting more th an the rec
om m ended daily allowances, since the rest o f his diet ca n n o t be utterly de
void ot vitam ins and minerals.
11. For a failure to confirm an effect ot v itam in- m ineral supplements, see
C rom bie et al. 1990, and for a failure to fin d an effect on intelligence of
diet short o f chronic m aln utrition , see C h u r c h and Katigbak 1991. For
more general discussion of the issue, see Eysenck 1991; Lynn 1990; Yudkin
1991.
12. Later children are on the average b o m in to larger families, w hich tend to
be of lower average IQ . H ence, there is a decline w ith successive births
that is a by-product o f fam ily size in and of itself. However, even after the
family size effect is extracted, there may be a decline w ith birth order. The
classic dem onstration of de clining scores w ith successive births in depen
dent of family size is a study based on a large sample of D u tch m e n (Bel
m on t and M arolla 1973; B elm ont, S tein , a n d Zybert 1978). S in ce then,
subsequent studies have both confirm ed and failed to confirm the basic re
lationship (e.g., Blake 1989; Retherford and Sewell 1991; Zajonc 1976).
A t present, there is n o resolution of th e varying findings.
13. Representative findings, on Japanese twins, are in Takuma 1966, described
in hvawaki and Vernon 1988.
14. For a review o f the literature on tw in differences in birth weight in rela

tio n to I Q as well as o f other evidence that the uterine en viro nm ent af
fects intelligence, see Storfer 1990.
15. A c h e n b a c h et al. 1990. This study compared two dozen low-birth-weight
babies whose mothers received training in m othering w ith comparably
small groups of normal-weight babies and low-birth-weight babies whose
m others did not receive the training. The encouraging outcom e is that
w hen the children were 7 years old, the usual deficit seems to have been
forestalled by having trained the mothers in infant nurturing. However,
the sm all scale of the study, the lack of random assignment to the three
groups, an d the puzzling near identity in scores for the underw eight c h il
dren whose mothers had been trained and the normal children suggest that
the next step should to attempt to replicate the finding, as the authors
themselves say.
16. For a helpful and balanced introduction to aptitude-treatment interac
tions, see S no w 1982.
17. H a tiv a 1988.
18. A tk in s o n 1974.
19. C o ok et al. 1975.
20. C o le m a n et al. 1966. T he report talked about educational aptitude, but
the measures used vocabulary scores, reading com prehension, m a th e
m atical reasoning tasks, etc. were taken from standard group tests of IQ .
21. See M osteller and M o ynihan 1972 for a collection of more or less critical
articles; included also is C o le m a n s response to the most intense m e th o d
ological criticisms (C olem an 1972). The combatants were often trying to
answer different questions, with C o lem an mostly interested in whether the
objective differences am ong schools were responsible for the observed d if
ferences in abilities and his critics more interested in characterizing the
objective differences in the schools. W e cannot do justice to rhe range of
issues th at surfaced in the report and the subsequent commentary', but one
o f them deserves m ention: T he report uncovered evidence that the ethnic
and socioeconom ic m ix of students in a school had a larger im pact than
the more standard investments in per pupil expenditures, teacher salaries,
quality of physical plant, and the like. This, in turn, became a m ajor argu
m ent for school busing. Soon after, school busing itself became a b attle
ground for social researchers, a tale we w ill not tell here except to say that
h av ing a beneficial effect on intelligence is no longer used as an argument
in favor of busing.
22. C o le m a n an d HoffeT 1987.
23. It isnt hard to find what seems to be the opposite conclusion in educational
writings (e.g., the C o lem an report is no longer taken seriously," Zigler and
M u e n ch o w 1992, p. 62) but no one has been able to show that the variables
Notes to pages 3 9 5 -3 9 9 7 43
exam ined in the report ac co u n t for m u c h o f the variation in cognitive abil-

iry am ong A m e rican public school students. If they are in any sense not
taken seriously, it is presum ably because e d u catio n al variables other th a n
rhe ones that C o le m an studied hav e been found to be significant. T his
chapter reviews the evidence about those cither variables as well.
24. See Kozol 1992 for a passionate arg um e nt th a t disparities in school fu n d
ing are a m ajor cause of disparities in e d u catio n al outcomes.
25. Husen and T uijnm an 1991,
26. The qu an titativ e details o f th e study are n o t germane to contemporary
times, but even then, w hen sc h o o lin g varied so broadly, the direct lin k be
tween IQ at the age of 10 a n d at 20 was a m in im u m of five times stronger
than that between am o unt of scho olin g a n d I Q at 20, in terms of variance
accounted for in a path analysis.
27. Flynn him self does not believe th a t e d u c a tio n a l equalization per se ac
counts tor m uch ot the rise in I Q in some countries such as H o llan d (F lynn
1987a), but then Flynn also does n o t believe that the rising national av
erages in IQ really reflect rising in te llig e n ce .
28. Stephen C e ci (1991) has sum m arized evidence, m uch of it from earlier in
the century, for an im pact of .schooling o n intelligence.
29. N a tio n al Ce nte r for E ducation Statistics 1981, Table 161,1992, Table 347.
30. M cL aughlin 1977, p. 55.
31. M cL au ghlin 1977, p. 53 T he failure of such com pensatory efforts antedated
rhe Great Society by m any years, however. A n early educational researcher
w riting of sim ilar com pensatory efforts in 1938 concluded that whatever
the num ber of years over w h ic h grow th was studied; whatever the num ber
of cases in the several groups used for com parisons; whatever the grade
groups in w h ich the IQs were o b tain ed ; w hatever the len gth of the in ter
val between in itial and fin a l testing; in short, whatever the comparison,
no significant change in IQ s has been fo u n d (Lam son 1938, p. 70).
32. Office of Policy and P la n n in g 199.3.
33. For more on this distinction, see A d a m s 1989; B row n and C a m p io n e 1982;
Jensen 1993a; Nickerson, Perkins, a n d S m it h 1985.
34. C hicago educator pushes c o m m o n sense, St. Louis Post Dispatch, Dec. 2,
1990, p. 5D; M arva C o llin s still expects, gets m u c h , St. Petersburg lim e s,
July 2.3, 1989, p. 6A ; P ioneering ed u cato r does n o t w ant post in a C l i n
ton cabin et, Minneapolis S ta r Tribune, O c t . 25, 1992, p. 2 2 A .
35. Spitz 1986. See also C h ic a g o schools get an education in m uckraking,
Chicago Tribune, May 8, 1989, p. 1C.
36. "Fairfax principal, 4 other educators d isc ip lin e d in test-coaching, W ash
ington Post, A ug. 7, 1987, p. C l .
37. Pres.sure for hig h scores b la m e d in test c h e a tin g , Los Angeles Times, Sept.
18, 1988, p. 1.
.38. S.L p rin cip al said to fudge school scores, New York Times, July 19, 1991,
p. B l.
39. For a sense of the m agnitude o f the cheating problem, see Schools for
S can d a l, U .S . News & World Report, A p ril 27, 1992, p. 66.
40. T he m in ister was Luis A lberto M achado, a high official in the n ilin g party
at the tim e.
41. Based o n estimates in the preceding years, the children in the two groups
were chosen to be of comparable cognitive ability. For descriptions ot rhe
experim ent, see Herrnstein et al. 1986; Nickerson 1986.
42. T he teachers manual for most of the lessons, translated inti) English, is
available as Adam s 1986.
43. See Brigham 1932 for the relevant background. Briefly, the S A T was orig
inally designed to be an intelligence test targeted for the college-going po p
u latio n and was originally validated against existing intelligence tests. For
a m odern source showing how carefully the College Board avoids saying
the S A T measures intelligence w hile presenting the evidence that it does,
see D o n lo n 1984.
44. Fallows 1980; Slack and Porter 1980; Messick 1980; D e rS im o nian and
Laird 1983; Dyer 1987; Becker 1990.
45. Messick an d Jungeblut 1981.
46. From 1980 to 1992, the SAT-V standard deviation varied from 109 to 112
an d the SAT-M standard deviation varied from 117 to 12 3. For the calcu
lations, we assumed SDs o f 110 and 120, respectively.
47. M c C a ll 1979.
48. M c C a ll 1987.
49. A lexander Pope (in his Mora! Essays) is the poet, and the entire coupler
is Tis ed u cation forms the com m on m ind; / Just as the twig is bent rhe
trees in c lin e d .
50. See M astropieri 1987 for a review of the expert consensus on this point.
51. For a sym pathetic rendition o f the program and its history, see ZigU-r and
M u e n c h o w 1992. For a more critical account, see Spitz 1986. W e try to
keep our account as close to what these two have in co m m o n as we can.
52. Project Rush-Rush was what Head Start was called by those in W a s h
in gto n w'ho thou g ht that it was plunging ahead with more speed than de
liberation (quoted in Caruso, Taylor, and Detterman 1982, p. 52).
53. Zigler an d M ue nch ow 1992, reporting the conclusions of Leon Eisenberg
an d C . K e ith C onnors after the first summer program. O n ly slightly less
grandiose were the claims of raising IQ scores a point a m o n th rhat were
often cited by enthusiasts.
54. Sargent Shriver, brother-in-law of the late president, Jo h n Kennedy, and
former head of the Peace Corps.
55. T h e first comprehensive evaluation was rhe so-called W estinghouse study,
Notes to pages 404-4-05 745
w hich the O ffice of E c o n o m ic O p p o r tu n ity sponsored. Its conclusion

was that there were few or n o c o g n itiv e benefits of Head S tart w ithin
three years after the c h ild co m p le te d it (C ica relli, Evans, an d Schiller
1969). Soon there was a m ini- industry pic k in g over the W estinghouse
study, in ad dition to rhe on e p ic k in g over Head Start. T he consensus
is now clear: C o g n itiv e gains v an ish before the end of primary school,
e.g., Haskins 1989; M cK ey 1985; Spitz 1986; Zigler and M u e nch ow 1992.
The new consensus has recently surfaced in the popular m edia (e.g.,
J. DeParle, Sharp criticism for H ead Start, even by friends, New York
Times , Mar. 19, 1993, p. A l ) .
56. For a range of views, see G a m b le and Zigler 1989; McKey 1985; Zigler and
M uenchow 1992.
57. E.g. Haskins 1989.
58. Zigler and M u e nch ow 1992. Edward Zigler, one of the early research d i
rectors ot H ead Start and a professor at Yale, argues in his book that it was
a mistake from the be g inn in g to promise gains in intelligence to the pub
lic. T he more general shift away from m a k in g increases in IQ the target of
preschool programs is discussed in G a rb e r a n d Hodge 1991; Locurto 1991;
Schw einhart and W eikarr 1991, pro and con.
59. A m o n g the people prom ising gains in the 300 percent range is the presi
dent of the U n ite d States, as reported by Jason DeParle (Sharp criticism
for Head Start, even by friends," N e w York Times, Mar. 19, 1993). Even
more ot an optim ist is e c o n o m ist A la n B linder, who once promised a re
turn of $4.75 for every do lla r spent o n preschool education (B lind er 1987).
60. For a review o f such benefits from H ead Starr programs, see H askins 1989,
who concludes th at the results call for h u m ility " (p. 280). T he H ead Starr
literature, he says, will n o t support the c la im that a program o f national
scope would yield lasting im pacts o n c h ild r e n s school performance nor
substantial returns on the in v e stm e n t o f p u b lic dollars (p. 280). In short,
there are n o sleeper effects from H ead Start. Even the evidence o f cost-ef
fective returns in the m ore in ten siv e ed ucational programs is highly re
stricted. For a literature review, see B arnett an d Escobar 1987.
61. Most of the children were 3 years old an d spent two years in the program;
the 22 percent w ho were 4 spent o n ly o n e year in it (B arnett 1985;
Berrueta-Clement et al. 1984.
62. H alf a school day, or ab out tw o and a half hours.
63. T he lack of effect was in directly co n firm e d in a subsequent study by the
same group of workers. T hey failed to find any differential effect o n IQ of
three different forms of preschool: their o w n cognitive e n richm en t pro
gram, a language-enhancing program , and a conventional nursery scho<
program (W eikarr et al. 1978). T here was n o conrrol group in this folio'
up, so we cann ot say how m u c h , if at all, preschool per se influenced
64- For a critical reading of just how m in im al these other effects of preschool
may have been, see Spitz 1986,
65. Lazar and D arlington 1982.
66. Sim ilar estimates can be found in a study of the early effects of Head Start
and the consortium sample (Lee et al. 1990).
67. Lazar and D arlington 1982, p. 47 The people who do these studies often
argue th at other positive effects are nor being picked up in the formal m ea
surements (e.g., Ramey, MacPhee, and Yeates 1982).
68. M any publications have flowed from the project; useful summaries are in
Ramey 1992; Ramey, MacPhee, and Yeates 1982.
69. Personal com m unication from R on Haskins.
70. Ramey 1992.
71. These differences are clearer in the critical accounts of rhe project in Spit:
1986 and 1992 than in the report by Ramey, MacPhee, and Yeates 1982.
72. H errnstein 1982; Sommer and Somm er 1983.
75. Page 1972; Page and G ran do n 1981.
74- Garber 1988; Garber and Hodge 1991.
75. Jensen 1989; Locurto 1991. The problem ot reaching to the test" recurs
in educational interventions. It is based on the tests being less th an a per
fect measure of intelligence (orjf), so that ir is possible to change rhe score
w ithout changing the underlying trait (see further discussion in Jensen
1993a).
76. O u r topic here is rhe effect of adoption on raising IQ , not rhe im plications
of adoption data tor estimating the heritahility of IQ . For reviews of the
adoption literature, see Herrnstein 1973; Locurto 1990; M unsinger 1975;
Plom in and DeFries 1985. A comprehensive theoretical analysis ot adop
tio n studies ot intelligence is in Turkheimer 1991.
77. Brown 1958, C hap. 5; Lane 1976; Lane and Pillard 1978.
78. A m o n g others inspired by this evidence from wild children" ot the power
over rhe m in d of the hum an environm ent was an Italian physician trained
at the end of the nineteenth century whose approach to education has sur
vived the tw entieth, Maria Montessori.
79. Locurro 1990; Plom in and DeFries 1985. In a refinement of this observa
tio n, it has been found that adopted children also score lower than the c h il
dren in other homes that are socioeconomically rhe same as those ot their
adoptive parents bur have no adopted children (thereby co ntro lling tor
possible ways in w hich adoptive parents m ight be distinctive from non-
adoprive parents).
80. Locurto 1990.
81. Dum aret and Stewart 1985; Schitf et al. 1982; Schift and L ew ontin 1986.
82. W e will disregard in our analysis a number of considerations that would re
duce estimates of the im pact of home en v iro nm en t, such as that the I Q of

the schoolmates of the nonadopted half-siblings (w ho presumably share
comparable lower-class surroundings) averaged only seven points less than
the adopted children, not twelve. This difference raises the possibility rhat
the adopted-away child seemed brighter in infancy or had better intellec
tual prospects than the half-sibling w ho stayed at hom e because of the par
ent they did not share, or that rhe shift in ho m e environm ents was even
more extreme than the estimates below assume it was, as if the adopted
c h ild s biological family hom e was atypically poor, even for the poor neigh
borhoods they were in. This, as we explain below, would reduce the over
all estimate ot the im pact of home en v iro nm en t.
8 3. The cell sizes in rhe 2 x 2 table of high- and low-SES adopting and bio
logical parent families were only ten children or fewer.
84- ('ap ro n and Duym e 1989. T his study showed an even larger benefit
equivalent to sixteen IQ points of having high-SES biological parents,
even when the child was n o t reared by them , w hich again points to a her-
itabiliry greater than .5.
85. This, it should be remembered, is for c h ild h o o d IQ , w hich is more sub
ject to the influence o f hom e en v iro nm en t than adult IQ . Recent work
has also indicated that how a parent treats a child (presumably also an
adopted ch ild ) is in part determ ined by the c h ild s inherited charac
teristics. To that extent, speaking of hom e environm ent as if it were purely
an environm ental source of variation is incorrect (see Plom in and Rer-
geman 1991).
86. A twenty-point swing is easily reconciled w ith a heritability of .6 for IQ.
Suppose the high- and low-SES homes in the French studies represent the
90th and 10th centile of en v iro nm en tal quality, as rhe text says. A twenty-
point swing in IQ from the 2d to the 98th centile of environm ental qual
ity would th e n imply that the standard de viation of hom e environm ent
effects on I Q is 4.69. Squared, this means a variance of 22 attributable to
home environm ent. But as we noted in note 1, a heritability ot .6 implies
that there is a variance of 225 135, or 90, attributable to environm ental
sources. The French adoption studies, in short, are consistent w ith the c o n
clusion that about a quarter o f e n v iro nm en tal variance is rhe variance
across homes (if our guesses about the adopting and biological hom e e n
vironm ents are not way off). Three-quarters of the environm ental in flu
ence on intelligence must be uncorrelated w ith rhe family SES, according
to the present analysis. N o te again th a t the balance tips toward environ
m ental factors outside families as being the more relevant than those pro
vided by families in affecting IQ , as m e n tio n e d in C hapter 4-
87. For a discussion o f cost-benefit considerations, see Haskins, 1989.
Chapter 18
1. Sharpen your pencil, and begin now, Wall Street Journal, June 9, I 992, p.
A16.
2. N atio n al C om m ission on Excellence in Education 19B3, p. 5.
3. N a tio n al C om m ission on Excellence in Education 1984, p. 58,
4. For an example of an alarmist view and a discussion of rhe various esti-
mates, see Kozol 1985,
5. N a tio n al Center for Education Statistics 1992, Table 12-4.
6. D E S 1992, Table 95.
7. R avitch and F inn 1987, p. 49.
8. Congressional Budget Office 1987, p. 16.
9. Congressional Budget Office 1987, p. 16.
10. Q uoted in Koiol 1985, p. 9.
11. Four of the studies were conducted by rhe International Association for
the Evaluation of Educational Achievem ent, known as the IF.A. They were
the First International M athem atics Study (F1MS), mid-1960s; rhe l irst
International Science Study (F1SS), 19661973; the Second Internat ional
M athem atics Study (S IM S ), 1981-1982; and the Second International
Science Study (S IS S ), 1981-1982. The fifth study was initiated hy the
U n ite d States as a spin-off from NAEP. It was conducted in 1988 and is
known as the First International Assessment of Educational Progress
(lA E P -l) (M e d rtc h an d G riffith 1992).
12. M edrich and G riffith 1992, A ppendix B.
1 S. N ation al Center for Education Statistics 1992, pp. 208-2 I 5.
14- The best single source for understanding complexities of international
comparisons is rhe summary and synthesis produced hy N ation al Center
for Educational Statistics (M edrich and G riffith 1992). O th e r basic sources
in this literature are W alker 1976; M cK night et al. 1 9 8 9 ; Keeves 1 9 91,
There are cultural factors too. In his vigorous defense of A m e rican educa
tion, G erald Bracey tells ot the scene in a Korean classroom during one
such international rest: As each Korean students name was called to come
to the testing area, that child stood and exited the classroom to loud ap
plause. W h a t a personal honor to be chosen to perform for the honor of
the n a tio n !" A m erican children seldom react that way, Bracey observes
(Bracey 1991, p. 113).
15. Bishop 1993b, N a tio n al Center for Education Statistics 1992a, pp. 60-61.
16. In ad d itio n to Bishop 1989, reviewed helow, see especially C arlson, Huel-
skamp, and W oodall 1993; Bracey 1991.
17. Bishop 1989.
18. The Flynn effect refers to gradually rising scores over tim e on cognitive
ability rests, discussed in C hapter 13.
19. N A E P p e r io d ic a l l y tests r e p re s e n t a t iv e s a m p l e s of s tu d e n t s at d iffe r e n t age

levels in m a t h e m a t i c s , readin g, s c ie n c e , a n d , m ore recently, in w ritin g a n d
in h istory a n d litera tu re.
20. N a tio n al ('en ter for Education Statistics, 1991, Fig. 1. The tests were de-
signed to have a m ean of 250 and a standard deviation of 50 when taken
across all three age groups. T he exception ro flat trend lines was science
performance am ong 17-year-olds, w hich shows a fifteen-point decline from
1969 to 1990, somewhat more than .5 S D (we do not know the specific
standard deviations for 17-year-olds o n rhe science rest; probably it is less
than 50). N ote also that science am ong 17-year-olds reflects dispropor
tionately the performance of the above-average students who tend to take
high school science consistent w ith our broader rheme that educational
performance deteriorated primarily am ong the gifted.
21. Two large questions about the table on page 422 immediately presenr
themselves. First, are the five studies accurate representations of the n a
tional samples that they purported to select, and are the five tests c o m p a
rable w ith each other? The answer ro the first half of the question is a
qualified yes. T he srudies were nor perfect, but all appear to have been well
designed and executed. The qualification is that the (.lata exclude young
sters w ho did not reach rhe junior year in high school. T he answer to the
second half of the question is cloudier, if only because sets of tests a d m in
istered at different times to different samples always introduce incom para
bilities with effects thar cannot be assessed precisely. T he prudent
conclusion regarding the m ath scores is to discount the modest fall and rise
from 1955 to 1985 and assume instead that m arh aptitude over that period
was steady. Regarding rhe Verbal scores, it seems likely that they rose from
1955 to 1966 and dropped from sometime after 1966 to sometime between
1974 and 1985, w ith the magnitude and precise tim ing of those shifts still
open to question. Before leaving the norm srudies, we must add a proviso:
rhe SA T scales got easier during 1963 ro 1973 by about eight to thirteen
points on the Verbal and perhaps ten ro seventeen points on rhe M a th .
They seem to have been stable before and follow ing this period ( M odu and
Stern 1975, 1977). T he same person would, in other words, have earned a
higher score on rhe later SATs than the earlier ones, owing purely to
changes in the test scales themselves. W h e th e r the PSAT, a m uch shorter
test, experienced the same degree of drift is u nknow n, but it is a good idea
to adjust m entally the 1974 and 1983 scores downward a bit, though this
does nor change the overall interpretation of the results.
22. Grades 10 and 11 show a similar pattern. G rade 12 remained slightly u n
der irs high (1965-1967) as of 1992, but it is likely that rhe deficit is ex
plained by increases in the proportion of 17-year-olds retained in school.
7 50 Notes to pages 424426
T he possibility remains open, however, that education in the post-slump

period improved more in the lower grades than in the higher ones.
23. Congressional Budget Office 1986.
24- M edrich and G riffith 1992.
25. T he College Board added new m ethod o f reporting test scores in 1967
based o n seniors instead of all tests administered, and continued to report
the means for both types of samples through 1977. During the years when
both scores were available, the trends were visually almost indistinguish
able. In the year when we employed rhe new measure in rhe graph on page
425, 1970, the scores for the two methods were identical.
26. Based o n the 1963 standard deviations, .49 and .32 SD reductions respec
tively.
27. For a technical statement of this argument, see Carlson, Huelskam p, and
W oo dall 1993.
28. Readers can follow the journey through the numbers in Murray and
Herrnstein 1992.
29. It is possible that the SA T pool was not getting democratized in the usual
socioeconomic sense but was nevertheless beginning to dig deeper in to the
cognitive distribution. Responses in the SA T student questionnaire in d i
cate that somewhat more students trom the bottom of the class were tak
ing the test in 1992 than in 1976, but this effect was extremely small for
whites. In 1980, 72.2 percent of whites reported that they were in the top
two-fifths of their high school class, compared to 7 1.5 percent in 1992. We
nonetheless explored rhe possibility that the pool hail become cognitively
democratized, by looking at the scores of students who reported that they
were in the top tenth, rhe second tenth, and the second fifth of their classes.
If their scores went up while those for the entire S A T sample went down,
that w ould be suggestive evidence (if we make certain assumptions ahout
the consistency with which students reported their true class rank) that
the pool was drawing from a cognitively broader segment ot the po pula
tion. U sin g 1980 (the end ot the decline) to 1992 as the period of co m
parison, the Verbal scores of whites who reported they were in the top
tenth, 2d tenth, and 2d fifth went up by five, seven, and eight points re
spectively, while that of the entire white SA T pool remained flat. In M ath,
the scores of rhe top tenth, 2d tenth, and 2d fifth went up by nine, th ir
teen, and fourteen points, respectively, while that of the pool rose by nine
points. A t first glance, this would seem to he evidence for a strong effect
of co gn itiv e democratization. Bur then we looked at what happened to the
scores of w hite students reporting rhat they were in the 3d, 4rh, and low
est fifths of their classes. T heir scores went up by m uch more: nine, eleven,
and ten points, respectively, in the Verbal; seventeen, seventeen, and nine
in rhe M a th . W e are aware of S im psons paradox, which shows how scores
Notes to pages 4 2 7 -4 2 9 751
in each interval can go up w he n scores in the aggregated group go do w n ,

hut in this case the e x p lan atio n appears to lie in changes either in the way
that students report their class rank, the m e a n in g o f class rank, or bo th.
W e give cognitive de m o cra tizatio n credit for two points each in the V er
bal and M ath , but it is nor certain th a t eve n that m uch is warranted.
30. For an argum ent that the test score d e c lin e does in fact represent fallin g
intelligence, see Itzkoff 1993.
31. For a broader discussion of fallin g S A T scores in the high-scoring segm ent
of rhe pool, see Singal 1991.
32. From 1967, scores were reported lor all test takers; from 1972 throu g h 1976,
ETS reported scores for all test rakers an d for college-bound seniors. To es
tim ate college-bound seniors for 1967-1972, we com puted the ratio of c o l
lege-bound seniors to total lest takers for the overlapping years of
1972-1976. For Verbal, the m e a n ratio was .82, w ith a high of .88 and a
low of .77. For M a th , the m e a n ratio was .78, w ith a hig h of .85 and a low
ol .7 1. T he m ean ratios were app lied to th e data from 1967 to 1972 to o b
tain an estimate ot the n u m b e r of college-bound seniors.
53. ETS keeps careful watch on changes in item difficulty, w hich are called
"scale drift. It finds th a t scores ot 650 a n d above were lirrle affected by
scale drift (M o d u and S tern 1975; 1977).
34- The rem aining possibility is th a t the increase in the S A T pool during the
1980s hrought students in to th e pool w h o co u ld score 700 but had not been
taking the test before. T h is possibility is n o t subject to ex am ination. It must
be set against the evidence th a t extrem ely high proportions ot the top stu
dents have been going to college since th e early 1960s and that the best-
of-the-besr, represented by those w h o score more than 700 o n the SAT,
have been avidly seeking, an d being sought by, elite colleges since the
1950s, w hich means th at they have been taking the SAT. N o te also th at
the proportion o f S A T students w ho identify themselves as being in the
top tenth of their high school class where 700 scorers are alm ost certain
to be was virtually un ch a n g e d from 1981 to 1992. Finally, if h ig h ly ta l
ented new students were being draw n from some mysterious source, why
did we see no im pro vem ent o n the SAT- Verbal I It seems unlikely th a t the
increase in rhe overall p ro p o rtio n o f h ig h school students taking the S A T
can account for more th a n a sm all p ro p o rtio n , if any, ot the rem arkable im
provem ent in M a th scores am o n g the m ost gitred du ring the 1980s.
35. O n ce again, rhe changes are n o t caused by changes in the e th n ic c o m p o
sition of the pool (for ex am ple, by a n in flu x o f test takers w ho do n o t speak
English as their native language). T h e tre n d lin e for whites since 1980 par
allels that for the entire test p o p u la tio n .
36. N a tio n al C e n te r for E d u c a tio n Statistics 1992, p. 57. W e also ex am ined
rhe S A T achievem ent test results. T hey are harder to interpret th a n the
752 N ous to page 430
SATs because the test is regularly rescaled as the population of students

taking the test changes. For a description of the equating and rescaling pro-
cedures used for the achievem ent tests, see D o n lo n 1984, pp. 21-27. The
effects of these rescalings, w hich are too complex to describe here, are sub
stantial. For example the average student w ho took the Biology achieve
m ent test in 1976 had an SAT-Math score that was 71 points above the
national mean; by 1992, that gap had increased to 126 points. T he same
phenom enon has occurred with most of the other achievem ent tests (M a th
11, the more advanced of the two math achievement tests, is an exception).
Put roughly, the students who take them are increasingly unrepresentative
of the college-bound seniors who take the SAT, let alone of the national
population. We focused on rhe students scoring 700 or higher by again as
suming that since the 1960s, a very high proportion of the n a tio n s stu
dents who could score higher than 700 on any given achievem ent rest took
the test. W e examined trends on rhe English C om position, A m erican H is
tory, Biology, and M ath 11 tests from three perspectives: the students scor
ing above 700 as a proportion of (1) all students who took that achievem ent
test; (2) all students who rook the SAT; and (3) all 17-year-olds. M ethod
1 (as a proportion of students taking the achievement test) revealed flat
trendlines not surprisingly, given the nature ot rhe rescaling. M ethods 2
and 3 revealed sim ilar patterns. W ith all rhe reservations appropriate to
this way of exam ining what has happened, we find that the proportion scor
ing above 700 on English C o m position and M ath II mirrored the contrast
we showed for Verbal and M ath scores on the SAT: a sharp drop in rhe
English C o m position in the 1970s, with no recovery in the 1980s; an
equally sharp and steep rise in the M ath 11 scores beginning in the 1980s
and continuing through the 1992 test. The results for A m e rican 1 listory
and Biology were m uch flatter. M e thod 2 showed n o consistent trend up
or down, and only m inor m ovem ent in either direction at any rime.
M ethod 5 showed similar shallow bowl-shaped curves: reductions during
rhe 1970s, recovery during the 1980s that brought the A m erican History
results close to the first year ot 1972, and brought Biology to a new high,
although one that was only fractionally higher than the 1^72 results. This
is consistent w ith a broad them e that the sciences and m ath im proved more
in the 1980s than the hum anities and social sciences did.
37. D iane R a v itc h s account, one o f the first, is still the best (R a v itch 1983),
w ith F inn 1991; Sowell 1992; Ravitch 1985; Boyer 1983; and Porter 1990
providing perspectives on different pieces of the pu::le and guidance to the
volum inous literature in magazines and journals regarding rhe educational
changes in elementary and secondary schools. For basic texts by advocates
of rhe reforms, see G o o d m a n 1962; K ohl 1967; Silberm an 1970; Ko:ol
Notes to pages 430 -4 3 7 753
1967; Featherstone 1971; lllic h 1970; and the one that in some respects
started it all, N e ill 1960.
38. Fiske 1984; G io n frid d o 1985.
39. Sowell 1992, p. 7.
40. Bishop 1993b.
41. Rejar and Blew 1981; Breland 1976; E tzioni 1975; W alsh 1979.
42. By the early 1980s, when the worst o f the educational crisis had already
passed, the H ig h School and Beyond survey found that students averaged
only three and a h a lf hours per week o n hom ew ork (Bishop 1993b).
43. D E S 1992b, Table 132.
44- D E S 1992b, Table 129. T he picture is n o t unambiguous, however. M e a
sured in C arnegie units, representing one credit for the com pletion of a
one-hour, one-year course, h ig h school graduates were still getting a sm aller
proportion ot their education from academ ic units than from vocational
or personal units (N atio na l C e nte r for E ducation Statistics 1992, p. 69).
45. W e do nor exempt colleges altogether, but there are far more exceptions
to rhe corruption as we m ean it at the university level than at the h ig h
school level, in large part because h ig h schools are so m uch more shaped
by a few standardized textbooks.
46. G io n frid d o 1985.
47. Irwin 1992, Table 1. T he programs we designated as for the disadvantaged
were the Title 1 basic and co ncen tration grants, Even Start, the programs
tor migratory children, handicapped children , neglected and de lin quen t
children, the rural technical assistance centers, the state block grants, in
expensive hook distribution, the Ellender fellowships, emergency im m i
grant education, the Title V (drug and alco hol abuse) state grants, n atio n al
programs, and emergency grants, Title V I (dropo ut), and bilingual program
grants.
48. D E S 1992b, Table 347.
49. C a lv in Lockridge, quoted in O ld debate haunts Bannekers future, W ash-
ington Post, M arc h 29, 199.3, p. A10.
50. Ibid.
51. Bishop 1993b.
52. For a coherent and attractive list of such reforms, see Bishop 1990b.
53. Stevenson et al. 1990.
54- E.g., 63 percent o f respondents in a recent poll conducted by M ellm an-
Lazarus-Lake for the A m e rican A ssociation o f School A dm inistrators
thoug ht that the n a tio n s schools needed m ajor reform, compared to on ly
33 percent w ho thoug ht their neighborhood schools needed major reform.
Roper O rganization 199.3.
55. E.g., Powell, Farrar, and C o h e n 1985.
754 Nows to pages 4374 5 1
56. Bishop has developed these arguments in several studies: Bishop 19881-1,
1990a, 1990b, 1993a, 1993b.
57- Bishop 1993b (p. 20) cites the example of N ationw ide Insurance, w hich
in the single year of 1982 sent out over 1,200 requests for high school tran
scripts and got 93 responses.
58. Bishop 1988a, 1988b, 1990a, 199.3a, 1993b.
59. Bishop 1990b.
60. Ibid.
61. T he W onderlic Personnel Test fits this description. For a description, see
E. F. W onderlic & Associates 1983. The value of a high school transcript
applies m ainly to recent high school graduates who have never held a job,
so that employers can get a sense of whether this person is likely to come
to work every day, o n time. But after the first job, it is the job reference
that w ill count, not what the student did in high school.
62. T he purposes of such a program are primarily to pur the federal govern
m ent four-square on the side of academic excellence. It w ould not appre
ciably increase the num ber ot high-scoring students going to college.
A lm ost all of them already go. But one positive side effect would be to ease
the financial burden on many middle-class and lower-middle-class parents
who are too rich to qualify tor most scholarships and too poor to send their
children to private colleges.
Chapter 19
1. Q uotas as such were ruled illegal by the Supreme ( 'ourt in rhe famous Bakkc
case.
2. Except as otherwise noted, our account is taken from Maguire, 1992.
3. A . Pierce et al., Degrees of success," Washington Post .M ay 8,1 991 , p. A 31.
4. Seven C O F H E schools provided data on applicants and adm itted students,
but nor on matriculated students. Those schools were Barnard, Bryn Mawr,
Carleron, M o unt H olyoke, Pom ona, and S m ith. The ethnic differences in
scores of adm itted students for these schools were in the same range as the
differences for the schools shown in rhe figure on page 452. Yale did not
supply any data by ethnicity. Data are taken from C onsortium on F in a n c
ing Higher Education 1992, A ppendix D.
5. Best Colleges, U .S . N ew s & World Report, O ct. 4, 1993, pp. 107 27.
6. Data for the University of V irginia and University of C a lifo rn ia at Berke
ley are for 1988 and were obtained from Sarich 1990 and L. Feinherg,
Black freshman enrollm ent rises 46% at U-Va, Washington P o st , D e
cember 26, 1988, p. C l .
7. T he figures for standard deviations and percentiles are based on the
O O F H E schools, o m ittin g V irginia and Berkeley. T he C O F H E R edbook

provides the SA T scores for the m ean, 25th percentile, and 75th percentile
by school. W e com puted the estimated standard deviation for the c o m '
bined SATs as follows:
Estimated standard deviation for each test (Verbal and M ath ): given the
scores for the m ean and any percentile, the corresponding S D is given hy
(x-m)/z, where x is rhe score for the percentile, m is the mean, and z is
the standardized score for that percentile in a norm al distribution. Two
separate estimates were coinputed for each school, based on the 25th and
75th percentiles. These two estimates were averaged to reach the esti
m ated standard deviation for each test.
T he form ula for estimating the standard deviation o f com bined tests is
\/o| + o', + 2 r o , 0 i > where r is the correlation between the two tests
and cr represents the standard deviation ot the two tests. T he correlation
ot the verbal and m ath SATs as adm inistered to the entire SAT p o p u la
tion is .67 (D o n lo n 1984, p. 55). T he correlation for elite schools is m u ch
smaller. For purposes o f this exercise, we err on the conservative side by
c o n tin u in g to use the correlation o f .67. W e further err o n the safe side
by using the standard de viation for the entire student population, w h ic h
is inflated hy the very affirm ative action admissions that we are analyz
ing. If instead we were to use the more appropriate baseline measure, the
standard de viation for the w hite students, the Harvard standard d e v ia
tion (kn ow n from unpublished data provided by the Admissions O ffice)
would be 105 instead of 122. For b o th reasons, the analysis of the gap be
tween m inority and w hite students in the C O F H E data is understated.
To give an idea o f the m agnitude, our procedure underestimated the
know n black-white gap at H arvard by 14 percent.
8. T he Berkeley figure for Latinos is an unw eighted average o f C hicanos and
other L atino means.
9. Scholars w ho have tried to do work in this area have had a tough tim e o b
tainin g data, up to and in cluding researchers from the Office for C iv il
Rights in the Departm ent of E ducation ( C h u n and Zalokar 1992, note, p.
108).
10. T he Berkeley figure for Latinos is an unw eighted average of Chican os and
other L atin o means. For Davis, only a C h ic a n o category is broken out. V ir
ginia had no figure for L atino students.
11. C h u n and Zalokar 1992.
12. C o m m itte e o n M in o rity Affairs 1984, p. 2.
13. C h a n and W a n g 1991; Hsia 1988; Li 1988; Takagi 1990; Bunzel an d A u
1987.
14. K. Gewertz, "Acceptance rate increases ro 76% for class of 1996," Harvard
University Gazette,May 15, 1992, p. 1.
15. F. Butterfield, Colleges luring hlack students w ith incentives," New York
Times, Feb. 28, 1993, p. ]
16. For C h ic a n o and other Latino students at Berkeley, the com parative posi
tio n w ith whites also got worse. SAT scores did not rise significantly lor
L atin o students during the 1978-1988 period, and rhe net gap increased
from 165 to 254 points for the Chicanos and from 117 points to 2 14 points
for other Latinos.
17. Powers 1977, as reported w ith supplementary analysis in Klitgaard 1985,
Table A1.6.P- 205.
18. T he 12-15 range cuts off the upper 11.5 percent, 14.9 percent, and 7.5 per
cent o f matriculants w ith known M C A T scores for the biological sciences,
physical sciences, and verbal reasoning tests respectively. By way ot co m
parison, the top 10 percent in the SAT-Math in 1993 was a little above
650; in the SAT-Verbal, in the high 500s.
19. Shea and Fullilove 1985, Table 4, reporting 1979 and 1983 data, indicate
th at blacks with M C A T scores in the 5-7 range had approxim ately twice
the chance of admission of white students. In another glimpse, a m u lti
variate analysis of applicants to medical school trom am ong rhe under
graduates at two University of California campuses (Berkeley and Dav is)
during the last half of the 1970s began w ith the average white male a p p li
cant, who had a 17.8 percent chance of being adm itted. H o ld in g other
characteristics constant, being black raised the probability of admission to
94.6 percent. Being an A m erican Indian or C hican o raised the probabil
ity to 95.0 percent (Olm stead and Sheftrm, 1980a). A n A sian w ith iden
tical age and academic credentials had a 25 percent chance ot admission,
higher than the white probability bur n o t statistically significantly so.
W illiam s, Cooper, and Lee 1979 present the odds from rhe opposite per
spective: A study of ten medical schools hy the Rand C o rporation found
th at a m inority student with a 50 percent chance o f admission w ould have
had about a 5 percent chance of admission if he were w hite w ith rhe same
qualifications.
20. Klitgaard 1985.
21. Proponents of affirmative action com m only cite preference for children of
the alum ni and students from distant states as a justification for affirm a
tive action. G iv e n the size of the racial discrepancies we have reported, it
would be useful to have an open comparison ot the discrepancies associ
ated w ith these other forms o f preference. W e have found data from only
one school, Harvard, where the legacy of having a Harvard parent c o n
tinues to be a plus in the admissions process but small in terms o f test scores.
For the decade starting in 1983, the average Verbal score of alu m ni c h il
Nores u) pages 4 6 1 -4 6 6 757
dren adm itted to Harvard was 674 com pared to 687 earned by the a d m it'
red children of n o n a lu m n i; for M a th scores, the comparable scores were
695 versus 718, respectively. Office o f C iv il Rights 1990.
22. H ig ham 1984. T he arguments against a d m ittin g Jews were likely to m e n '
cion th at gentile families m ig h t not send th e ir children to a college w ith
too m any Jews (in stitu tio n al self-interest) or that anti-Semitism w o uld
make it hard for Jewish alu m n i to use their college education for societys
welfare (social utility).
23. Berger 1987.
24. Lloyd 1990; Feller 1991.
25. The formal explication of this standard is T horn dik e 1971. For a discus
sion ot how slippery the n o tio n ot acceptable performance can he, see
Brown 1980.
26. The comparisons are based on N L S Y subjects who went to the same four-
year colleges and universities (again, ex cluding historically black schools).
Excluding ju n io r colleges elim inates problem s of interpretation it different
proportions of different ethnic groups attended junior colleges rather th a n
four-year institutions. S ince rhe framework for the analysis assumes a m u l
tiracial campus, it seemed appropriate to exclude the 103 N L S Y subjects
(all but 6 of w hom were black) w ho atte nd ed historically black in s titu
tions. For rhe record, the m ean A F Q T score of black students w ho first a t
tended historically black institutions and blacks w ho first attended other
four-year institutions were w ith in two IQ p o ints of each other.
27. W e used the top and bo tto m h a lf of socioeconom ic status rather th a n a
more restrictive d e fin itio n (such as the to p and bottom quartile) to give
large enough sample sizes for us to have confidence in the results. W h e n
we used rhe more restrictive definitions, rhe results showed admissions d e
cisions that were even farther out of line w ith the rationale, but w ith sm all
samples num bering just 15 pairs for two o f rhe cells. The procedure for the
analysis was as follows: T he N L S Y includes the F1CE (Federal Interagency
C o m m ittee on E ducation) code for each in s titu tio n the N L S Y subjects a t
tended. T his analysis is based on the first such institution attended after
high school. The m atching procedure som etim es creates m ultiple lines for
one m em ber of rhe pair. For example, suppose that three whites and on e
black have attended the same school. O n e m ay either enter the black score
three times or elim inate duplicates, entering the black score only once. W e
consider th at the e lim in a tio n o f duplicates is likely to introduce more er
ror, on the assum ption th at the differences am ong colleges can be large.
Im agine a sample consisting of two schools: an unassuming state teachers
college, w ith three whites and three blacks in the N L S Y sample, and Yale,
with three whites and one black. T he Yale scores are m uch higher th an the
teachers college scores. E lim in a tin g duplicates entering just one (h ig h )
758 Notes tu pages 466-467
black score for Yale instead o f the same score three times would defeat
the purpose o f m atching schools. The figures reported in the text are thus
based on means that have counted some people more than once but c o n
trol for in stitutio nal effects. The mean used to com pute a cell entry is the
intercept of a regression in w hich the dependent variable is I Q score and
the independent variables are the institutions, coded as a vector of n o m i
nal variables. Note that we also reproduced this analysis e lim in a tin g d u
plicates. T h e results are so similar that rhe alternative numbers could be
inserted in the text w ithout requiring the change ot any ot the surround
ing discussion.
In ad dition to this form of rhe analysis, we examined other ways o f cu t
tin g oft low and high socioeconomic status, ranging from the most general,
w hich divided the deciles into the top and bottom five, to the most ex
treme, w hich considered only the top and bottom deciles. For the latter
analyses, we used the entire sample of N L S Y students w ho attended four-
year institutions, to preserve large enough sample sizes to analyze. Those
results were consistent with the ones presented in the text. A positive
weight attached to being black u n til reaching the most extreme com pari
son, of a w hite student in rhe bottom socioeconomic status decile co m
pared to a black student in the top decile, at w hich p o int the edge for the
black student fell to close to zero (but never actually reached zero). W e fur
ther exam ined the results when the sample consisted of N L S Y subjects who
had received a bachelors degree (no t just attended a four-year college).
T he pattern was identical for both blacks and Latinos, an d even the m ag
nitudes o f the differences were similar except that, as in other replications,
the gap between the disadvantaged white and disadvantaged black grew
substantially over the one reported in the text.
28. T he com putation, using IQ scores, was (black mean - w hite m e a n )/(S D
of all whites who attended a four-year institution as their first college). In
understanding the way that affirmative action operates, we rake it th at the
reference p o in t is the white student population, which indeed squares with
most qualitative discussions of the issue, pro and con.
29. Perhaps low SES for blacks m eant a m uch worse background than low
S E S for whites? N ot by m uch; the means for both groups were close (51st
percentile for whites, 25th for blacks), and controlling for the difference
did not appreciably change the story. Nor did it do any good to try to de
fin e h ig h " an d low SES more strictly, such as people in the top and b o t
tom quartiles. In that case, the disadvantaged blacks were adm itted w ith
even lower lower scores than disadvantaged whites, in the region of 1.5
standard deviations (depending on the specific form of the analysis) and
so o n through the cells in the table.
30. W e use this indirect measure because o th e r m ore direct measures (e.g., the
num ber of blacks e n ro llin g in college out of h ig h school, or the num ber ot
persons ages 20 to 21 en rolled in sch o o l) d o nor go back ro rhe 1960s an d
1950s.
From 1950-1969, data are av ailable o n ly for blacks and others. Over-
lapping data indicate th a t the figure for hlacks o n ly in rhe early 1970s
was stable at approxim ately 95 percent o f rhe blacks and other figure.
The data tor 1950-69 represent the blacks an d othe r numbers m u ltiplie d
by .95. It one assumes th at the p ro p o rtio n was somewhat higher in the
1950s and early 1960s, this produces a fractio n al overestimate ot the u p
ward black trendline, but so small as to he visually imperceptible in the
graph on page 469.
31. Carter 1991; D Souza 1991; Sow ell 1989; Sow ell 1992; Steele 1991.
32. See, lor example, S aric h 1990; L ynch 1991.
33. For a review of this literature throug h th e 1970s, see Breland 1979. R e
search since then has n o t chang ed the picture. See also L in n 1983; D o n
kin 1984, pp. 155-159.
34. As in so m any matters in v o lv in g a ffirm ativ e a c tio n , this indirect reason
ing would be unnecessary it colleges and universities were ro open their
data o n grades to researchers.
35. A lth a ch and Lom ofey 1991; Bunzel 1992; D Souza 1991.
36. E.g., Carter 1991; Steele 1991.
37. N a tio n al C e nte r for E d u c a tio n S tatistics 1992, Tables 170, 249. In the
N L S Y sample, am o n g all students w h o first entered a tour-year n on hlaek
university, 27 percent of th e w hites failed to get a bachelors degree
compared to 57 percent of rhe blacks and 55 percent of Latinos. D ro p o u t
in the N L S Y is defined as h a v in g tailed to h av e completed a bachelors
degree by rhe 1990 interview , despite h a v in g once entered a four-year
college. Ry that tim e, the youngest m em bers of the N L S Y were 25 years
old.
38. The real discrepancy in d ro pou t rates in v o lv e d Latinos. Using the same
analysis, the probability th at a L a tin o stu de nt w ith an IQ of 110 would get
a bachelors degree was on ly 49 percent. T hese results are produced w h e n
the analysis is run separately for each race.
39. A . H u, H u s on first, A sian Week, M ay 12, 1989, p. 7; Consortium o n F i
nancing H igher E d u c a tio n 1992.
40. A . H u, M inorities need m ore su ppo rt," The Tech, Mar. 17, 1987, p. 1.
41. Carter 1991; Sow ell 1992; Steele 1991; D Souza 1991; Murray 1984.
42. There should probably also be some c o n tra in ts o n the spread of the a b il
ity distributions in various groups, h u t such specificity would be out of place
here.
760 Notes to pages 4 S 2 ^ f86
Chapter 20
1. T his statem ent assumes that the violation of the 80 percent rule is statis
tically significant. W ith sufficiently small numbers of hirees or promotions,
these percentages will fluctuate widely hy chance.
2. The U n ifo rm G uidelines are just guidelines, not laws. In one notable 1482
ease (Connecticut v. Teal), the Supreme C o urt ruled that even rhe practice
of m ee tin g the 80 percent rule by hiring larger numbers of test passers from
the protected than from the unprotected groups still falls short it the tesr
produces disparate impact. Disparate impact, in and of itself, said the Court
in Teal, deprives protected applicants of equal opportunity, even if the dis
proportionate numbers are corrected at rhe bottom line. U n d e r this ruling,
an employer who hires a given number of blacks will be v io latin g rhe law
if rhe blacks have high ability tesr scores, but not violating the law it rhe
same num ber of blacks are hired w ithout recourse to the scores at all, and
thus are hound to have lower scores on average. This eventuality was
lauded by Keltnan 199], who argues (p. 1169) that hiring a larger propor
tion of test-passing blacks than test-failing blacks stigmatizes" blacks he-
eause it im plicitly validates a rest on which blacks on average score below
whites. Better, he suggests, nor to test at all, tacitly assuming rlv.it the tesr
has no predictive power worth considering. For another view ot Tail, see
Epstein 1992.
3. T he H artigan Report is discussed in C hapter 3.
4. E.g., K elm an 1991.
5. H eckm an and Payner 1989, p. 138.
6. T he categories are based on those defined by the federal governm ent. The
professional-technical category was chosen to represent high-status jobs.
The clerical category was chosen both to represent lower-status skilled jobs
and also because, am ong those categories (others are sales workers and rhe
crafr workers), clerical is the only caregory that shows a visibly steeper in
crease after 1959 than before it. Two technical points about the graph on
page 485 are im portant. First, the job classification system used by the ( Cen
sus Bureau was altered in 1983. Figures for 1983-1990 conform to the clas
sification system in use from 1959-1982. 'The professional-technical
category for 1983-1990 consists of the sum of rhe headings of professional
specialty, technical, sales, and administrative support," accountants and
and i 11 irs, and personnel, training, and labor relations specialists. The
clerical category consists of the sum ot adm inistrative support, including
clerical, and cashiers. Second, the data in the graph are for blacks only,
corrected for the blacks and others" enum eration that was used unt il 1973.
The correction is based on the know n ratio of jobs held by the others in
blacks anti others" for overlapping data as of 197 3. This assumes rhat rhe
Notes to jMges 486 -4 9 0 761
others (mostly A sian ) held a constant proportion ot clerical and profes

sional jobs held hy blacks and others from 1959-197 3. If in tact the pro
portion went dow n (blacks acquired these jobs disproportionately), then
the pre-197 ^ line in the graph slightly underestimates the slope of the black
increase. If in tact rhe proportion went up (th e others acquired these jobs
disproportionately), then the pre-1973 line in the graph slightly overesti
mates rhe slope ot the black increase. N ote, however, that even asot 1973,
blacks constituted 87.9 percent of the hlack and other population ages
18 and over, compared to 91,9 percent in 1960, so the degree ot error is
unlikely lo he visually perceptible in the graph. T he alternative was roshovv
blacks and others consistently from 1959 in to rhe 1990s, hut trom a tech
nical perspective this becomes increasingly inaccurate as rhe percentage
ot "others" increases rapidly in the 1970s and 1980. Visually, graphs pre
pared under either m ethod show the same story.
7. The m ain com plications are, first, th at rhe affirmative action policies
evolved over a period of tim e, so that the landm ark events are not as de
cisive as they may appear to be (see A p p e n d ix 7). Second, laws and regu
lations often institutionalize changes that were already under way for other
reasons. This seems to be clearly the case w ith the hiring ot minorities, and
ir, too, rends to blun t the im pact of the laws and regulations when they
come along. T hird, different regions ot the country probably reacted to the
laws and regulations differently, thereby d ilu tin g their impact in national
statistics.
8. D onohue and H eckm an 1991; Epstein 1990; Freeman 1984; H eckm an and
Payner 1989; H eckm an and Verkerke 1990; Leonard 1986; W elch 1981.
9. Brown and Erie, 1981 concluded that about 55 percent ot rhe increase in
hlack managerial, professional, and technical em ploym ent from 1960 to
1976 occurred in the public sector.
10. The classic exchange on this topic is Epstein 1992, C hap. 12; H eckm an
and Payner 1989.
1 1. The norm ative 1 standard deviation difference is assumed tor this exercise.
T he observed difference in the N L S Y is larger, hence would only exacer
bate the conclusion suggested hy the graphic on page 485.
12. Obviously, there will be employees w ho fall outside the range. Bur insofar
as the rails at both ends are small and roughly equivalent, the calculation
is not m uch affected. These particular numbers are based on the observed
distribution of N L S Y whites in these job categories. For clerical jobs, 90
percent ot all w hite employees had IQ s between 85.7 and 122.7, w ith a
standard deviation o f 11.3. For professional and technical jobs, 90 percent
of all w hite employees had IQ s of 98.0 and above, w ith a standard d e v ia
tion of 11.8.
7 6 2 Notes tn pages 491 -493
13. T he assumptions used for the figure are extremely conservative. Most o b
viously, the standard deviation of 15 is roo high. People w ith in an occu
pational category will always tend to have a smaller dispersion than the
general population. If we change nothin g except reduce rhe standard de
viations to 12 for both blacks and whites, in line w ith the observed stan
dard deviations in the N L S Y , the black-white ratios rise from 1.7
(professional-technical) and 1.6 (clerical) to 2.5 and 1.9 respectively. In
addition, however, the graph on page 490 is conservative in using an IQ
range th a t encompasses 90 percent of the w hite workers in an occupational
category. T he lower the bottom end of the range is, the more it dispropor
tionately inflates the eligible portion of the black population (changes in
the top end of the range are at the tail of the distribution and add very lit
tle to the eligible pool). Visualize rhe bell curve: By lowering the bottom
cutoff for professional-technical professions from 100 to 98 (for example),
everyone in that very tar part ot the curve is treated as being just as eligi
ble for a professional-technical occupation as anyone else even though,
in reality, they are m uch less likely than persons w ith higher IQ s to get
such jobs. If, for example, we base the range on the IQs that embrace 80
percent of the white workers in an occupation more realistic in m any re
spects the black-white ratio in 1990 grows to 2.3 tor professional-
technical occupations and 1.8 for clerical. But the conclusions still hold
even if we broaden the range srill further than in the graph, ro embrace 95
percent o f all people in those occupations. In that case w hich assumes,
implausibly, that all people w ith IQs higher than 89.8 are equally likely to
be hired for technical-professional jobs and that all people w ith IQ s be
tween 82.0 and 1 30.3 are equally likely to he hired tor clerical jobs the
black-white ratio as of 1990 is still greater than I in both instances: 1.2 for
professional-technical, 1.5 for clerical. In short, the differences produced
by altering the assumptions can make substantial differences in the size of
the estimates ot disproportionate hiring, but even assumptions that go well
beyond c o m m o n sense and the available data do n o t change the overall
conclusions drawn in the text.
14. T he observations using rhe C P S and the N L S Y are nor com pletely inde
pendent, insofar as we took our estimate of the IQ range tor clerical and
professional-technical occupations from rhe data on N L S Y whites. But
those parameters did n o t constrain the results for blacks.
15. The sample in these analyses excluded persons who were still in school in
1990.
16. Jaynes and W illiam s 1989, Tables 4-1, 6-1.
1 7- H artigan and W igdor 1989. See also Chapters 3 and 13.
18. As of 1987, states had such a certification process. See R udner 1988.
19. Straus and Sawyer 1986.
20. Lerner 1991.

21. In Pennsylvania, w ith rhe highest pass rates, the state com missioner of
higher education openly acknowledged that Pennsylvania sought to avoid
lawsuits alleging racial bias in rhe test hy establishing a low cutoff score
that they would subsequently try to raise. See H . C o llins, M in o rity groups
are still lagging on teachers exam , Philadelphia Inquirer, Aug, 5, 1989, p.
B l.
22. T he answer to the question of how such large differences can show up in
otherwise credentialed teachers is, in effect, the topic of the preceding
chapter, on affirm ative action in higher education.
23. If we make the em pirically more likely assum ption that IQ does have a pos
itive correlation w ith the n on inte lle ctual skills, then the people w ith low
intellectual skills will, on average, also have depressed n on inte lle ctual job
skills.
24. For examples oI affirmative action programs in public bureaucracies, see
Lynch 1991, pp. 24-32; Taylor 1992, C haps. 4, 5.
25. Carlson 1993.
26. Carlson 1993, p. 28.
27. Carlson 1993, p. 30.
28. Washington Post, O ctober 24-28, 1993.
29. Delatrre 1989; Seehresr and Burns 1992.
30. A m o n g the other stories we have located lin k in g poor worker performance
to hiring under affirmative action requirements are one reporting an in
crease in collisions and other accidents on the New York pu b lic trans
portation system (K. Foran, T A lax on Safety," Neivsday, Sept. 19, 1990,
p. 5), another describing the rise in crim inal behavior am ong D e tro its po
lice officers (E. Salholz, d o in g After D e tro its rogue cops, Newsweek,
Sept. 5, 1988, p. 37),and one discussing the m uch higher rare offirings
am ong Bostons black postal workers,com pared to white workers (B.
M cA llister, Researchers say Postal Service tried ro block article on fir
ings, Washington Post, O ct. 17, 1992, p. A 3 ).
31. Silberberg 1985. See also Ford et al. 1986; Kraiger and Ford 1985.
32. Silberberg has his ow n interesting hypotheses about these differences,
w hich we do n o t elaborate here. N o th in g in his account is at variance with
our conclusion that affirmative action procedures are exacting a cost in
worker performance.
33. Hacker 1992, p. 25.
34. In fact, that was precisely the excuse often given hy the major leagues tor
n o t hiring blacks.
35. For a detailed statem ent o f this perspective, see K elm an 1991.
36. Q uoted in Bolick 1988, p. 49. See also Taylor 1992, p. 126.
37. There is a presum ption that if we cann ot explain a group difference,itis
7 64 N otes to pages 501-512
appropriate to assume that there is no good reason for it. This is had logic.
N o t k no w ing a good reason for a difference is nor the same as know ing that
there is no good reason.
38. W e understand the argument that, in the long term, and taking the broad
est possible view, if all businesses were to behave in socially responsible
ways, there would result a better society that would provide a healthy c li
mate for the businesses themselves. O ur argument is somewhat more direct:
C a n a university president, thin k in g realistically about the foreseeable fu
ture, see that his university will be better qua university by a d m ittin g some
students who are academically less qualified than their competitors? G e n
erally, yes. C an the owner of a business, thin k in g realistically about the fore
seeable future, see that his business will be better qua business by hiring
people who are less productive than their competitors? General ly, no.
39. D. Pitt, Despite revisions, few blacks passed police sergeant lest, N ew
York Times, January 13, 1989, p. 1.
40. See Taylor 1992, pp. 129-137, for an account of some of rhe more egre
gious examples.
41. The largest difference, 1.6 SDs, was for persons w ith advanced degrees. For
Latinos, the gap w ith whites ranged from .6 to 1.0 SDs.
42. O th e r approaches for contending with affirmative action constraints have
surfaced. For example, New Yorks S anitation Departm ent used a test on
w hich 23,078 applicants our of 24,000 got perfect scores, and its Fire D e
partm ent used a test with m ultiple choice questions tor w hich a p o in t of
credit was given it the first choice is correct, a halt-point it rhe second
choice is correct, or a quarter-point it rhe third choice is correct, 1 hereby
inflating the grades for people who get lots of items wrong (Taylor 1992).
43. H artigan and W igdor 1989; H unter and H unter 1984-
44. For an account, see H artigan and W igdor 1989.
45. E. F. W on de rlic &. Associates, 1983, Table 18, p. 25. T h e scores ot Asians
are lower than rhe natio nal mean (in contrast to results o f I Q studies) prob
ably because the W onderlic, a pencil-and-paper test, is language sensitive
and is widely used tor lower-level jobs. It seems likely that substantial pro
portions of Asians w ho take rhe W onderlic are recent im m igrants for whom
English is a second and often newly acquired language.
46. Sum marized in Lynch 1991. See also Detlefsen 1991.
( 'hajncr 2 1
1. Kaus 1992. Kauss analysis runs parallel w ith our own in many respects
am ong other things, in his use o f the Herrnstein syllogism (Herrnstein
1971, 1973) to thin k about the stratifying influence ot intelligence.
Notes to pages 5 12-525 765
2. T he remark appeared in rhe m anuscript of The End of Equality. Ir is used

here w ith permission of the author.
3. Q uoted in N o v ak 1992, p. 24-
4. Surveys hy the Roper O rg anization (Roper Reports 92-5), as reported in
American Enterprise (M ay-June 1993): 86.
5. U .S. Rureau o f the Census 1992, Tahle B-6, 1975.
6. U.S. Rureau of the Census, 1991, Tahle B-3. A ll data are based on pretax
incom e, so the rax reforms of the 1980s arc n o r implicated.
7. Reieh 1991.
8. Voting estimated from Jennings 1991, Tables 7, 10, 13.
9. O verall, 19.2 percent of children horn to N L S Y women from the
mid-1970s through 1990 were horn to unm arried mothers with below-
average IQs- T he national illegitim acy ratio grew steadily throughout rhat
period.
10. W h ite " includes births ro C aucasian Latinos. The N ational Center for
1 lealth Statistics has provided L atino/no n- L atino breakdowns only since
1986. D uring that period, rhe non-l.atino w hite illegitimacy ratio in
creased from 1 3.2 percent to 18.0 percent in 1991, the latest figures as we
write.
1 1. Data refer to poverty in the year prior to birth, and to non-Latino and
Latino whites com bined, to be consistent w ith die use of w hite" in this
discussion. T he proportions for non-Latino w hite women above and be
low rhe poverty line were quite similar, however: 6 percent and 44 percent
respectively.
12. U npublished derailed tables for Rachu 1993, available from rhe Bureau of
the Census.
13. These co ntinue to be figures for L atin o and non-Latino whites com bined.
T he figures for non-Latino whites may be found in Chapter 8. They are
not so different (hecausc non-Latino w hites so dom inate the total).
Seventy-two percent of illegitim ate children o f non-Latino white mothers
in the N L S Y had IQ s below 100, and 39 percent had IQs below 90.
14- W ilso n 1987. For a com plem entary view, see Massey and D enton 1993.
15. In the N L S Y , blacks from the lowest quartile o f socioeconomic haekground
had a m ean I Q equivalent of 82.
16. For an early statement o f this argument, see Murray 1988a.
17. Jencks and Peterson 1991.
18. C hapter 16 discussed some of these efforts w ith regard to intelligence. For
broader-ranging assessments, see Murray 1984; Stromsdorfer 1987; Rossi
1987; Clazer 1988.
C hapter 22
1. T h e phrasing draws from Rawls 1971, pp. 14-15.

2. For discussion of this transformation, see, for example, Brown 1988.
3. T hom as Hobbes postulated an axiom Hobbes saw it as literally an ax
iom , in the m athem atical sense for governing people wirh equal rights
to liberty: T hat a m an be willing, when others are so too . . . to lay down
this right to all things; and be contented w ith so much liberty against other
m en, as he would allow other men against himself. Hobbes 1651, C hap.
14.
4- Hobbes expressed the gloomy prospect of perfect anarchy in the one sen
tence for which he is best remembered: A n d the life of m an (would be]
solitary, poore, nasty, brutish and short. Hobbes 1651, C hap. 13.
5. Locke 1689, Second Treatise, sec. 4.
6. Locke 1689 Bk. IV, C hap. X X .
7. See, for example, W ills 1978; Beer 1993.
8. M ayo 1942, pp. 77-78.
9. Costopoulos 1990, p. 50.
11. M ayo 1942, p. 78.
12. Costopoulos 1990, p. 47-
1 3. Q u o ted in D iam ond 1976, p. 16.
15. T hat fact, com bined w ith the irresistible corruption that A dam s saw as
infecting all political systems, caused him to be deeply pessimistic about
the survival of the experiment in hum an government that he had been so
instrum ental in founding. H e sometimes wondered gloom ily whether a
hereditary aristocracy on rhe British model m ight he necessary ro offset the
unrestrained avarice and factiousness of Jeffersons natural aristocracy.
16. A ristotle 1905 ed., p. 207.
17. H a m ilto n et al. 1787, N o . 10.
18. W h ite 1958, p. 122.
19. H uber 1988; Olson 1991.
20. Bureau o f Labor Statistics 1982, Table C-23,1989, Table 42.
21. In 1990 dollars in all cases: the annual income of male year-round, full
tim e nonfarm, non-mine laborers was $16,843 in 1958. (S A L 'S 1970, Table
347). T he comparable earnings for handlers, equipm ent cleaners, helpers,
and laborers in 1991 was $16,777. U .S . Bureau o f the Census, 1992,Table
32. The full-time weekly earnings of lower-skilled labor in 1920 was $ 169
in 1990 dollars, or $8,459 for a fifty-week year (U .S . Bureau of the Census
1975, Series D 765-778).
Notes to pages 5 3 8 -5 6 9 767
22. For a full presentation of the follow ing argum ent, see Murray 1988b, Chap.
12.
2 3. W ilson 1993.
24. It is doubtless harder even tor bright people to lead law-abiding lives when
the laws become more com plex, but the m arginal effects will be smaller on
them th an on the less bright.
25. Ellwood 1988.
26. For an accessible discussion of the pros and cons ot rhe E1TC, see Kosters
1993. A more am bitious approach th a t we th in k deserves consideration
would replace the entire structure of federal transfers to individuals in
come supplements, welfare, in-kind benefits, farm subsidies, and even so
cial security w ith a negative incom e tax ot th e kind proposed by M ilto n
Friedman in Friedm an 1962. Like Friedm an, we are attracted to this strat
egy only it it replaces everything else, a possibility so unlikely that it is hard
ro talk about seriously. This does not d im in is h its potential merit.
Appendix 1
1. T he figure depicts 250 18-year-old males draw n randomly from the N LSY
sample.
2. Based on the N L S Y subjects, born trom 1957 through 1964, as of 1982,
when rhe youngest was 18 years old, rhe m e a n height of contemporary
Am ericans is a little over 5 feet 7 inches, w ith a standard deviation of about
4 inches.
3. Based on the 1983 ETS norm study (Braun a n d K ing 1987) and dropout
rates in rhe 1980s, we estimate the m ean for all 18-year-olds (including
dropouts) at 325, w ith an standard d e v iation o f 105. This would indicate
that the 99th centile begins at a score ot 569. T he example in the text is
phrased conservatively.
4. T he Pearsons r is .501 in bo th cases. T he num b er 3,068 refers to males
w ith weight and height data in 1982.
5. For sim plicitys sake, we are assuming th at the variables can have only lin
ear relationships w ith each other.
Appendix 2
1. T he N L S Y on C D - R O M disk is available for a n o m in al fee from the C e n

ter for H u m a n Resource Research, O h io State University.
2. Inquiries should be directed to Prof. R ich ard J. H errnstein, D epartm ent of
Psychology, W illia m James H all, Harvard University, Cam bridge, M A
021 38, or ro Dr. Charles Murray, A m erican Enterprise Institute, 1150 17th
Sr. N W , W ashing to n, D C 20036.
3. D a t a for 1991 h ad b e c o m e a v a ila b le in rim e to he used for rhe an alysis, but

for budgetary reasons, the N L S Y h ad to cut the s u p p le m e n t a r y s a m p l e o f
low -in com e whites as of 1991. W e de c id e d that the a d v a n t a g e s of i n c lu d
ing low -in com e w hites in t h e a n a ly sis o u t w e ig h e d the a d v a n t a g e s of a n a d
d ition a l year o f data.
4- W e follow ed the arm ed force s c o n v e n t i o n o f l i m itin g s u h te st s c o r e s to a
m a x im u m o f three s ta n d a r d d e v ia t io n s from the m e a n . W e gratefully
ac k n o w le d g e the as s is ta n ce o f Dr. M a l c o l m J. R e e , w h o led t h e re vision o f
the A F Q T , in c o m p u ti n g th e revised sc o re s for t h e N L S Y .
5. T h i s procedure is fac ilitate d hy the large s a m p le sizes ( a t least 1,265 with
valid A F Q T scores in e a c h birth year, w h ic h are as large as th e s a m p le s
c o m m o n ly used for n a t i o n a l n o rm s in tests s u c h as the W I S C a n d W A I S ) ,
an d the fact that the N L S Y s a m p le was b a la n c e d for e t h n i c g r o u p a n d g e n
der within birth years.
6. W e also e x p e r im e n te d with gr o u p in g s b ased n ot o n t h e c a l e n d a r year, but
the school year. T h e d ifferen ces in c e n tile pro d u c e d by rhe tw o p ro c e d u re s
were never as m u c h as two, so we r e m a in e d with c a l e n d a r y ear as th e b a
sis.
7. S e e U sers Guide 1993, pp. 1 5 7 162.
Appendix .3
1. T h e subtests are G e n e r a l S c i e n c e ( G S ) , A r i t h m e t i c R e a s o n i n g ( A R ) ,
W ork K n o w le d g e ( W K ) , P a ra g r a p h C o m p r e h e n s i o n (P C') , N u m e r i c a l O p
erations ( N O ) , C o d i n g S p e e d ( C S ) , A u t o / S h o p I n f o r m a tio n ( A S ) , M a t h
e m atic s K n ow le d ge (M K ), M ech anical Com preh ension (M C ), an d
E lec tron ic s In form ation ( E L ) . T w o su b te sts ( N u m e r ic a l O p e r a t i o n s and
C o d i n g S p e e d ) are highly s pe e de d; the o t h e r e igh t are p o w e r " ra th e r th an
speed tests.
2. R e e an d Earles 1990a, 1990b, 1991c.
3. W e use rhe term facto r in a g e n e ric sense. W it h in p s y c h o m e t r i c s , terms
like factor and component are used selectively, d e p e n d i n g on th e p a rtic u la r
m e th o d o f an alysis used to e x t r a c t t h e measures.
4. E.g., G o u l d 1981.
5. J e n s e n 1987a, 1987b; R e e a n d E arles 1991 c; W e lsh , W a ts o n , a n d R e e 1990.
6. T o a c c o u n t for literally 10 0 p e r c e n t o f the v a ria n c e tak e s ten fac to rs ( b e
c au se there are ten s u b re sts), with the final few o f t h e m m a k i n g i n c r e a s
ingly negligib le c o n tr ib u tio n s . In t h e c ase o f A S V A B , t h e fin a l fiv e fac to rs
c o lle c tiv e ly a c c o u n t for only 10 p e rce n t o f the tota l v a r i a n c e in scores.
7. S p e r l, R e e an d S t e u c k 1990.
8. C a r ro ll 19 88; J e n s e n 1987 a.
9. R e e a n d E arles, 1 9 9 0 a , 1 9 9 0 h , 1 9 9 1 c .
10. G o r d o n 1984; J e n s e n a n d F i g u e r o a 1 9 7 5 .
11. N o t e rh at rhe G e n e r a l S c i e n c e s u b t e s r a n d t h e E l e c t r o n i c s I n f o r m a t i o n
suhtest are as h i g h l y g - l o a d e d a s t h e s u h t e s r s u s e d in t h e A F Q T . W h y n o t
use t h e m as w e ll? B e c a u s e t h e y d r a w o n k n o w l e d g e t h a t is s p e c i f i c ro c e r
tain c o u rse s t h a t m a n y y o u t h s m i g h t n o t h a v e t a k e n , w h e r e a s t h e m a t h e
m a tic s an d r e a d i n g s u b t e s t s r e q u ir e o n l y m a t e r i a l t h a t is o r d i n a r i l y c o v e r e d
in the c o u r se s t a k e n hy e v e r y s t u d e n t w h o g o e s t o e l e m e n t a r y a n d s e c
on d a ry s c h o o l. B u t t h i s is a g o o d i l l u s t r a t i o n o f a p h e n o m e n o n a s s o c i a t e d
w ith I Q tests: Peop le w h o acq u ire k n o w le d g e a b o u t e le ctro n ic s an d sc i
e n c e also t e n d t o h a v e h i g h m a t h e m a t i c s a n d v e r b a l ability.
12. J e n s e n 19 80, T a b l e 6 . 1 0 .
n . W i t h i n a s i n g l e t est, t h e t e s t s c o r e m i g h t m e a n a n y o f s e v e r a l p e r c e n t il e
scores, d e p e n d i n g o n rh e a g e o f t h e s t u d e n t ; h e n c e t h e r e a s o n fo r u s in g p e r
c e n ti l e s. For t h e a n a l y s e s in t h e t e x t , s c o r e s w e r e u s e d o n l y if b o t h a test
score anil a p e r c e n t i l e w er e r e c o r d e d . A n o m a l o u s s c o r e s w ere d i s c a r d e d as
follow s: For t h e C a l i f o r n i a T e s t ot M e n t a l M a t u r i t y , o n e test s c o r e o f 7 0 0 .
F o r rhe O t i s - L e n n o n M e n t a l A b i l i t y T e s t , e i g h r c a s e s in w h i c h t h e test
score w as u n d e r 1 0 a n d t h e p e r c e n t i l e w a s o v e r 7 0 ; o n e c a s e in w h i c h t h e
test sc o re was 1 7 6 a n d t h e p e r c e n t i l e w a s o n l y 8 4 . F o r t h e H e n m o n - N e l -
son T e s t of M e n t a l M a t u r i t y , o n e re st s c o r e of 174- For the D ifferen tial
A p t i t u d e T e st, s i x t e e n t e s t s c o r e s o v e r 100. For the L o rg e -T h o rn d ik e In
t e llig e n c e T e s t a n d t h e K u h l n v a n n - A n d e r s o n I n t e l l i g e n c e T e s t , w h i c h
sh o w e d u n i n t e r p r e t a b l e .scatter p l o t s o f test s c o r e s a g a i n s t p e r c e n t i l e s , c a s e s
were r e t a i n e d if t h e t e s t s c o r e n o r m e d a c c o r d i n g t o a m e a n o f 10 0 a n d a
sta n d a r d d e v i a t i o n o f 1 5 w as w i t h i n 10 c e n t i l e s o f rh e r e p o r t e d p e r c e n t il e
score. T h e n u m b e r of e l i g i b l e s c o r e s o n t h e S t a n f o r d - B i n e t a n d t h e W e c h s -
ler I n te l l i g e n c e S c a l e fo r C h i l d r e n ( 1 8 a n d 1 6 , r e s p e c t i v e l y ) w a s t o o s m a l l
to analyze.
14- J e n s e n 1980, T a b l e 8 .5 .
15. T h i s list is t a k e n f r o m J e n s e n 1 9 8 0 , p. 7 2 . J e n s e n d e v o t e s a c h a p t e r ( C h a p .
4 ) to th e d i s t r i b u t i o n of m e n t a l ab ility , w h i c h we r e c o m m e n d as a n e x c e l
len t sin g le s o u r c e tor r e a d e r s w h o w a n t to p u r s u e t h i s issue.
16. For an e x p l o r a t i o n o f t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p s as o f t h e la te 1 9 6 0 s , s e e J e n c k s e t
al. 1 9 7 2 , A p p e n d i x B . F o r s e p a r a t e s t u d i e s , s e e R u t t e r 1 9 8 5 ; H a l e , R a y
m o n d , an d G a j a r 1 9 8 2 ; W o l f e 1 9 8 2 ; S c h i f f a n d L e w o n t i n , 1 9 8 6 .
17- H u s n a n d T u i j n m a n , 1 9 9 1 . S e e a l s o C e c i 1 9 9 1 , f o r a c a s e t h a t s c h o o l i n g
h as a g r e a t e r i n f l u e n c e o n I Q t h a n h a s g e n e r a l l y b e e n a c c e p t e d , d r a w i n g
h ea v ily on d a t a f r o m e a r l ie r d e c a d e s w h e n r h e n a t u r a l v a r i a t i o n in s c h o o l
in g was large.
Appendix 5
1. V alid ity is m e asu r e d by t h e co rr e latio n b etw een p r e d ic to r a n d o u t c o m e ,

w h ic h , m u ltip lie d hy the ra tio of the s ta n d a r d d e v i a t i o n s of rhe o u t c o m e
t o t h e predictor, g i v e s the re g re ssio n c o e ffic ie n t o f t h e o u t c o m e on t h e p r e
dicto r. T o ke e p th is d is c u s sio n sim ple, we a s su m e an i n c r e a s in g m o n o t o n i c
r e la tio n s h ip b e tw e e n the va lid ity an d rhe regression c o e f fi c i e n t h ere . For
a d i s c u s sio n th a t does n o t m a k e this sim plify in g a s s u m p t i o n , see J e n s e n
1980.
2. In t h e follow in g sources, o n e c a n find vary ing e stim a te s of t h e m a g n i tu d e
o f p r e d i c t i v e va lid ity of i n te llig e n c e tests an d vary ing o p i n i o n s a b o u t
w h e t h e r the tests are a net benefit ro society, but they u n a n i m o u s l y a c c e p t
the c o n c l u s io n t h a t n o bias a g a in s t blacks in e d u c a t i o n a l or o c c u p a t i o n a l
p r e d ic t io n h a s b e e n found: B r e la n d , 19 79; ( ' r o u s e a n d T r u s h e i m 1 9 8 8; Har-
rig an an d W i g d o r 1989; H u n t e r a n d S c h m i d t 1990; J e n s e n 1 980 ; K litg a a rd
1 985; R e y n o ld s a n d B r o w n 1984; S c h m i d t 1988.
3. For a disc ussion o f the so u r ce s o f error an d their r e l e v a n c e to m e t a
an a ly s e s of o c c u p a t i o n a l o u t c o m e s in particular, see H u n t e r a n d S c h m i d t
1990, For a m ore gen eral dis c u s sio n , in c lu d in g e d u c a t i o n a l o u t c o m e s , see
J e n s e n 1980.
4. J e n s e n 1984b, p. 523.
5. O c c a sio n a lly , o n e may find a study rhat finds differential p r e d ic t iv e v a l i d
ity for o n e e t h n i c group o r a n o t h e r for a pa rtic u la r test e .g ., the K - A B t
test for L a t in o s a n d n o n - L a t i n o w hites ( V a le n c ia a n d R a n k i n 1 9 8 8 ). Rut
e v e n for L atin o s, validity ge n e ra lizatio n has ge n e rally b e en c o n f i r m e d (e.g.,
R e y n o l d s an d G u t k i n 1 9 8 0; V aldez a n d V aldez 19 83).
6. J e n s e n 1980, T a b l e 10.4.
7. B r e la n d 1979, T a b l e 3b.
8. Ibid.
9. H a r t i g a n an d W ig d o r 1989, T i b l e 9.5.
10. Ibid.
11. T h e e x a m p l e g i v e n here is a spe c ial c ase o f a m ore g e n e ra l p h e n o m e n o n :
A s l o n g as the p r o d u c t o f th e regression coe ffic ie n t ( w h ic h is a s s u m e d not
to differ for rhe g r o u p s ) a n d the m e a n d iffe r en c e b e tw e en g r o u p s in t h e pre
d i c t o r is s m a lle r t h a n the m e a n d ifferen ce in rhe o u t c o m e , th e re will he
o v e r p r e d i c t io n for the low er-scoring group.
12. For a review o f t h e literatu re t h r o u g h the early 1980s, see J e n s e n 1 9 85, also
d is c u s se d in C h a p t e r 13. For stud ie s sin c e th e n , see B r a d e n 1 989; J e n s e n
19 9 2 , 199 3b . T h e sin g le c o n tr a r y stu dy e x t a n t is G u s r a f s s o n 1 9 92 .
1 3. M c G u r k 1951. A l s o in 19 51, K e n n e t h E ellss d o c t o r a l t h e sis at th e U n i
versity ot C h i c a g o sh o w e d t h a t test i tem difficulty did n ot vary m u c h across
w h ite e th n i c s of diffe ren t types, thereby failin g to su p p o rt t h e in tu it io n
Notes to pages 6 3 1-6 3 8 7 71
t h a t c u ltu ral f a c to rs are d o m i n a n t (E e ll s et al. 1 9 5 1 ). S e e J e n s e n 1980,

C h a p . 11, for m o r e o n M c G u r k s an d E e l l s s w o r k an d o n o th e r early s t u d
ies o f rest item bias.
14. For a re vie w o f th e literatu re t h r o u g h rhe l a t e 1970s, se e J e n s e n 1980,
C h a p . 11. For s tu d ie s s in c e 19 80, see B a r t er al. 1 986; R o s s - R e y n o l d s an d
R e s c h ly 1 9 8 3; S a n d o v a l et al. 19 83; J e n s e n a n d M c G u r k 1 9 8 7 ; C o o k 1987;
K o h , A b h a t i e l l o , a n d M c l o u g h l i n 1984; R e s c h l y a n d R o s s - R e y n o l d s 1982;
M i s h r a 1983. A l l fo u n d n o item d if fe r e n c e s , o r d if fe r e n c e s that e x p la in e d
o n l y a f r a c t io n o f t h e diffe ren c e s in g r o u p sc ore s. A r e th e re any e x c e p t io n s ?
W e iden tified o n e s u c h study for h lacks ( M o n t i e an d F a g a n 1 9 8 8 ) , b ased
o n 3-year-olds. T h e r e may very well b e o t h e r s tu d ie s of sim ilar size (th e
s a m p l e in M o n t i e a n d F a g a n was 8 6 ) t h a t are l u rk in g in the literature, but
w e kn o w of n o s tu d ie s u s in g large -sc ale r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s a m p le s t h a t e s t a b
lish item bias a g a i n s t b lacks. S o m e s tu d ie s o f L a t i n o s h a v e foun d e v i d e n c e
of bias, m ostly a s s o c i a t e d with S p a n i s h a n d E n g l i sh lan g u ag e c h a r a c t e r i s
tics. S e e V a l e n c i a a n d R a n k i n 1 9 8 8 ; W h i t w o r t h a n d C h r i s m a n 1987, M u n -
ford an d M u n o z 19 80. B u t t h e f a c to r s tr u c tu r e of rhe test results h as
ge n e ra lly b e e n f o u n d to be the s a m e for L a t i n o a n d n o n - L a t i n o s (e.g., see
M i s h r a 1 9 8 1 ).
1 5. S e e J e n s e n 1 98 0, T a b l e 11.12. A l s o se e M i e l e 1 979.
16. S c h e u n e m a n 1 987.
17. F o r a lite ratu re review, see J e n s e n 1 9 8 0 , C h a p . 12.
18. D y e r 1970.
19. For s tu d ie s s p e c ific a lly d e a l i n g w ith d i f f e r e n t i a l ra cial effects of c o a c h i n g
a n d p r a c t ic e t h r o u g h t h e late 1 9 7 0 s , s e e B a u g h m a n a n d D a h l s t r o m 1 968;
C o s t e l l o 1 9 7 0; D u b i n , O s b u r n , a n d W i n i c k 1 9 6 9 ; J e n s e n 1980. For s t u d
ies b e a rin g o n t h e issue s in c e 1 9 8 0 (b u t n o t a d d r e s s in g it as d irectly as the
earlier o n e s ) , s e e P o w e rs 1 9 8 7; Terrell a n d T e r r e l l 1 9 8 3 ; J o h n s o n an d W a l
lac e 1 989; C o l e 19 87.
20. F o r literatu re re vie w s, se e S a t t l e r an d G w y n n e 1982; J e n s e n 1980.
21. F o r a lite ratu re review, se e J e n s e n 1 9 80, C h a p . 12.
22. For a lite ra tu re review, see J e n s e n 1980, C h a p . 12.
23. J e n s e n 1 980, C h a p . 12. S e e a ls o n o t e 14 r e g a r d in g item bias for L atin o s.
24- J e n s e n 1 9 8 0, C h a p . 12.
25. Q u a y 1 9 71 , 1 9 7 2 , 19 74.
26. Farr ell 1983 a n d th e a t t a c h e d r e s p o n s e s .
27 . J o h n s o n et al. 1 9 8 4 ; F r e d e r ik s e n 1 9 8 6 ; J o h n s o n 1 988 ; K e rr et al. 1986;
M a d h e r e 1989; S c h e u n e m a n 1 9 8 7 ; W h i t e e t al. 1988
28. R o c k e t al. 1 9 8 5 d e t a ils the c h a n g e s b e t w e e n t h e tw o a d m in is t ra t io n s , c o n
c l u d i n g t h a t t h e c a u t i o u s p o s i t io n w o u ld b e t h a t n e ith e r a d m in i s t r a t i o n
h a d an a d v a n t a g e . A less c a u t i o u s c o n c l u s i o n is rh ar rhe 1 9 8 0 su b je c ts p r o b
ab ly h a d s o m e s m a l l a d v a n t a g e (p. 18).
772 Notes to pages 6 3 8-657
29 . Based o n th e w h ite s ta n d a r d d e v i a t i o n for 1980, the first year that s t a n

dard d e v i a t i o n s by race w ere pub lished.
3 0 . C o n g r e s s i o n a l B u d g e t O ffic e , 1986, Fig. E-3.
31. C o n t r a r y t o p o p u lar belief, o n th e p r o p o s itio n w h e t h e r b ra in size is c o r
related with IQ, t h e e v i d e n c e strongly favors the p ro s o v e r rhe c o n s,
e v e n after c o rr e c tin g for sta tu re. A s a m p l in g o f c o n t e m p o r a r y p o s it io n s
in this m in i-c o n t ro v e r s y is C a i n an d V a n d e r w o l f 1 9 9 0 ; G o u l d 1978,
1981; L yn n 1989; M i c h a e l 1988; P a s s in g h a m 1982; R u s h t o n 1990d, in
press; V a l e n 1974. B rain size is, however, n o t n ecessarily w h olly d e t e r m i n e d
by the g e n e s; it c o u ld also be a sso c iate d w ith n utrition o r g e n e r a l h ea lth .
32. T h e R u s h t o n c o n tr o v e rs y has unfolded in a rapidly e x p a n d i n g s c h ola rly
literature. S o m e o f the papers, pro an d c o n , are C a i n an d V a n d e r w o lf 1990;
Lynn 198 9 b ; R o b e rts a n d G a b o r 1990; R u s h t o n 1985, 1 987, 1 9 88 , 1990a,
1990b, 1 9 9 0 c , 19 90d, 1 9 9 1 a , 19 9 1 b ; R u s h t o n an d B o g a e r t, 1 9 78 , 1988; S i l
v e rm an 19 90 ; W e it z m a n n et al. 1990; Z u c k e rm a n and Brody 19 88. F o r fur
th e r s u b s ta n t i a t io n of s o m e of the race diffe r e n c e s that R u s h t o n in v o k e s ,
see Ellis an d N y b o r g 1 9 9 2 ; L yn n 1 990 c ; M a n g o l d an d P o w e l l - G r i n e r 1991;
R ow e, R o d g e r s , an d M e s e c k - B u s h e y 1988; V a le n 1974.
33. A l m o s t as all e n c o m p a s s i n g a thesis as R u s h t o n s is R i c h a r d L y n n s a c c o u n t
of the e v o l u t i o n o f ra cial d iffe r en c e s in i n te llig e n c e in t e r m s of th e a n c e s
tral m igr atio n s o f gro u p s of early h o m in id s from the re la tive ly b e n ig n e n
v i r o n m e n t s o f A fric a t o the h arsh er a n d m ore d e m a n d i n g E ura sia n
latitudes (L y n n 1 9 9 1 c ), w h e r e they b r a n c h e d in to rhe C a u c a s o i d s an d
M o n g o lo id s . S u c h th e o r ie s were n o t u n c o m m o n a m o n g a n t h r o p o lo g i s t s
a n d b iologists o f a g e n e r a t i o n or tw o a g o (e .g ., D a r l i n g t o n 1 9 6 9 ) . A s the
b io lo g ic al o u t l o o k o n h u m a n b e h a v io r b e c a m e c o n tr o v e r s i a l, rhis kind of
theorizing has a lm o st v a n is h e d . T h e m o d e r n version relies m u c h m o r e on
p s y c h o lo g ic a l m e a s u r e m e n ts of c o n te m p o r a r y p o p u l a t i o n s t h a n t h e earlier
version.
Appendix 7
1. For a c o m p r e h e n s i v e d i s c u s si o n , see E p ste in 1992.

2. A n y o n e of th e s e c o u r t c a s e s m a y in v o lv e h e r o ic efforts; S o m e c o u r ts h a v e
e xpre sse d c o n c e r n at t h e s p e c t a c l e o f trials la stin g for w eeks, f o l l o w in g years
of discovery, a n d i n v o l v i n g a m u ltitu d e of sta tis tic al an d o t h e r e x p e r ts a n d
s e e m in g l y e n d le ss t e s t im o n y a b o u t rhe c r e d e n t ia l s o f a sin g le [job] c a n d i
d a t e ." B a r t h o l e t 1982, p. 1002.
3. Q u o te d in P a tte rs o n 1 9 8 9 , p. 87.
4. Patte rson 1989.
5. P a tte rso n 1989.
6. 401 U . S . 4 2 4 ( 1 9 7 1 ) .
7. L yn c h 19 91; M u r r a y 19 84; P a tt e rs o n 19 89.

8. F o r a c l e a r a c c o u n t , se e P a tt e rs o n 1989.
9. 401 U . S . 4 3 2 .
10. Ibid.
11. T h e r e is g o o d e v i d e n c e th a t t h e D u k e P o w e r C o . h ad n o dis c rim in a to ry
in te n t in usin g t h e test or the e d u c a t i o n a l c r e d e n t ia l ; it was u s i n g the s a m e
c riteria a t a t i m e w h e n it was frank ly p u r s u i n g a r a c e ^ se g re g a tio n ist h irin g
policy. T h i s e a r l ie r c o n d u c t g i v e s c r e d e n c e t o its c l a i m t h a t it w an te d to
i m p r o v e its e m p l o y e e s i n te lle c tu a l level.
12. S o m e legal s c h o l a r s criticize rhe C o u r t lor n o t h a v i n g in te rp re te d the C o n -
s tit u tio n itself, in t h e F o u r t e e n t h A m e n d m e n t , as p r o v id in g p r o te c tio n
a g a i n s t d i s p a r a t e i m p a c t (e.g ., T r i b e 1 9 8 8 ).
15. Ironically, the p a r t ic u l a r w ord in g in t h e r e l e v a n t part of T itle V II was an
a c c o m m o d a t i o n to o n e o f the a c t s m o s t u n e a s y o p p o n e n t s , S e n a t o r J o h n
T o w e r of T e x a s , w h o was c o n c e r n e d t h a t t h e law n ot be used in precisely
t h e m a n n e r t h a t , in C r i g g s , t h e c o u r t ru led t h a t it sh o u ld b e used (W ils o n
1 972).
14- For a n e x c e l l e n t d is c u s sio n , see E p s t e i n 1 992, w h o s e r e a d in g of the record
s tron gly c o n f ir m s ours. E p s te in m a k e s t h e p o i n t th a t h a d the C o n g r e s s
k n o w n in 1964 w h a t in te r p r e t a ti o n t h e C o u r t was to p la c e o n T i t l e V II in
G r ig g s , it " w o u l d h a v e g o n e d o w n to t h u n d e r i n g d e f e a t (p. 1 9 7 ). From the
le gislativ e re c o rd , t h a t ap p e a r s to us t o b e a fair a s se ssm e n t.
15. Q u o t e d in W i l s o n 1 972, pp. 8 5 4 f f .
16. Q u o t e s a t t r i b u t e d to S . R e p . 9 2 - 4 1 5 , 9 2 d C o n g . , 1st sess. 5 ( 1 9 7 1 ) , t h e re
p o r t o f rh e S e n a t e C o m m i t t e e o n L a b o r a n d P u b lic W e lfare , in P a tte rso n
1989.
17. W i l s o n 1972.
18. R a r th o l e t 19 8 2 , p. 9 5 8 .
19. 4 2 2 U . S . 4 0 5 ( 1 9 7 5 ) .
20. O u r d i s c u s sio n h ere h a s d raw n o n B r a u n 1 9 9 2 .
21. C o u r t s o t h e r t h a n the S u p r e m e C o u r t h a v e im p o s e d o n t h e e m p lo y e r it
self the b u r d e n o f s e e k in g less d i s c r i m i n a t o r y a l t e r n a t i v e s (P atte rso n ,
1 98 9).
22. F o r re fe re n c e s t o th e re l e v a n t g o v e r n m e n t d o c u m e n t s , see P a tt e r s o n 1989.
23. For a s im ila r c o n c l u s i o n , an d s o m e d e t a i l t o b a c k it up, s e e P o tte r 1986.
24. 4 9 0 U . S . 6 4 2 ( 1 9 8 9 ) .
25. 4 9 0 U . S . 6 59.
26. C a t h c a r t an d S n y d e r m a n 1992.
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Index
A b e c e d a ria n P ro je c t, 4 0 7 - 4 0 9 o f m o th e r
A b u se: see C h ild a b u se an d n e g le c t d y s g e n e sis a n d , .3 5 1 -3 5 2 , .3 5 4 -3 5 5
A c h ie v e m e n t tests, b lack a n d w h ite d if lo w -b irtlv w e ig h t in fa n ts an d ,
fere n ce s in IQ a n d , 2 9 0 - 2 9 3 , 2 1 6 -2 1 7
6 3 8 -6 4 0 as p r e d ic to r of jo b p ro d u c tiv ity , 81
A d am s, Jo h n , 5 31 A id to F a m ilie s w ith D e p e n d e n t C h i l
A d o p tio n , 3 0 9 - 3 1 1 ,4 1 0 - 4 1 3 d re n ( A F 1 ) C ) , 1 9 1 - 1 9 3 ; See also
A ffirm ativ e actio n W e lfare d e p e n d e n c y
in h igh er e d u c a tio n , 36, 4 4 7 - 4 7 7 A lb em arle P ap er C o . v. M o ody ( 1 9 7 5 ) ,
a d m issio n s policy an d , 4 5 8 - 4 6 8 660, 663
b lack d ro p o u t rates a n d , 4 7 3 - 4 7 4 A m e r ic a n C o lle g e T e stin g ( A C T ) e x a m
co sts of, 4 7 0 - 4 7 5 in a tio n , 291, 2 9 4 , 6 4 0 - 6 4 1
eth n ic prem iu m for, 4 4 9 45 8 A n n u a l fa m ily in c o m e : see In c o m e
grad u ate sc h o o ls in a rts a n d s c i A r is t o t le , 2 5 5 , 5.31
en c es, 4 5 7 - 4 5 8 A r m e d F o rc e s Q u a lific a t io n T esr
im p act of, 4 6 9 - 4 7 0 ( A F Q T ) , 7 3 - 7 4 , 1 2 0 ,2 7 7 -2 7 8 ,
law sc h o o ls, 4 5 5 4 5 6 5 7 9 -5 9 2
m ed ical sc h o o ls, 4 5 6 - 4 5 7 A r m e d S e r v ic e s V o c a tio n a l A p t itu d e
policy o p tio n s for, 4 7 5 477 B a tte ry ( A S V A B ) , 7 5 - 7 6 ,
racial an im o sity an d , 47 3 6 8 0 -6 8 3
ratio n ale for, 4 5 8 - 4 6 8 A s ia n - A m e r ic a n ( s )
u n d ergrad u ate sc h o o ls, 4 5 1 4 5 5 im m ig r a n ts , 3 5 9 - 3 6 0
in rhe w orkplace, 4 7 9 - 5 0 7 r e v e r se d isc r im in a tio n a n d , 4 5 3
em p lo y m en t tests an d , 4 8 1 - 4 8 4 , a n d w h ite d iffe r e n c e s
5 0 2 ,6 5 5 - 6 6 3 in IQ , 2 7 2 - 2 7 6 , 2 9 9 - 3 0 1
federal reg u latio n of, 4 8 1 4 8 3 , in test sc o re s, a ffir m a tiv e a c tio n
4 8 5 - 4 9 1 ,6 5 5 - 6 6 3 a n d , 4 5 1 - 4 5 3 , 4 5 5 , 4 5 6 ,4 5 8
im p act of, 4 8 5 492 A s s o r t a t iv e m a tin g , 110 -1 1 .3
jo b p ro d u c tiv ity a n d , 4 9 2 4 9 8
policy o p tio n s for, 4 9 8 5 0 8 B e a n , F ra n k , .347
race n orm in g an d , 5 0 3 - 5 0 4 B e ll c u r v e , 5 5 6 - 5 5 8
A fflu en t class B e n d e r, W illia m J., 2 9, 41
c o a litio n w ith c o g n itiv e e lite , B e n t o n , D a v id , 392
5 1 4-518 B e sh a ro v , D o u g la s, 2 0 8
ec o n o m ic grow th a n d , 5 1 6 - 5 1 7 B ias: see T e sr b ia s
elite co lleg e a tte n d a n c e by, 4 1 - 4 2 B in e r, A lfr e d , 2
sen ior b u sin ess e x e c u tiv e s a n d , 5 8 B ish o p , J o h n , 4 2 1 - 4 2 2 , 4 3 7 - 4 3 8
A fric a n A m ericans-, see B la c k a n d w hite B la c k ( s )
d ifferen c es; B lac k s d iffe r e n c e s w ith w h ite s: see B la c k a n d
A ge w h ite d iffe r e n c e s
h eritability o f IQ an d , 108 d r o p o u t r a te s of, 4 7 3 4 7 4
at m arriage, 1 6 9 -1 7 1 im m ig r a n ts , 3 5 9 , 3 6 0 , 3 6 3
834 Index
B la c k a n d w h ite differences Broken h om es

in a p titu d e test scores crim e and, 2 4 9 - 2 5 0
affirm a tiv e actio n and, 4 5 1 - 4 5 8 illegitim acy an d , 1 8 4 -1 8 6
n a rro w in g gap in SA Ts, 292, Brown U n iversity, 4 3, 453
2 9 4 -2 9 5 , 63 8 -6 3 9 Burger, W arren, 658
in e d u c a tio n a l attain m e n t, 3 1 9 -3 2 0 Burt, C yril, 11, 12, 16
in fertility, .3 52-357
in in co m e, 3 2 2 -3 2 7 C alifo rn ia P sych ological In ven to ry , 7
o n in d ic a to rs of social problem s C am e ro n , S te v e , 1 4 7 -1 4 8 , 151
c o g n itiv e ou tcom es for ch ild ren , C arro ll, Jo h n B ., 16
3 3 7 - 3 38 C a se , C lifford , 6 5 9
crim e, 3 3 8 - 3 3 9 C a tte ll, R ay m on d , 15, 3 4 5 - 3 4 6 , 366
d e v e lo p m e n ta l ou tco m es for c h il C en tile s. See P ercentiles.
d ren , 3 3 6 -3 3 7 C h a n , J. W .C ., 273
h o m e en v iro n m e n t for ch ild ren , C h ild ahuse and n eg lect
33 4 -3 3 6 paren tal IQ an d , 2 1 1 - 2 1 3
illegitim acy , 33 0 -3 3 1 socio eco n o m ic statu s an d , 2 0 7 - 2 1 0
lab o r fo rc e dropouts, 3 2 7 - 3 2 8 C h ild d ev e lo p m en t
low -birth -w eigh t infants, 3 3 2 -3 3 4 beh avioral prob lem s in o ld er ch ild ren ,
m arriage rates, 329, 3 30 2 2 6 -2 2 7 , 383
poverty, 3 2 6 -3 2 7 , 3 3 3 -3 3 4 eth n ic differences in, 3 3 6 -3 3 7
u n em p lo y m en t, 3 2 7 -3 2 9 h om e en v iron m en t for: see H o m e e n
w elfare depen d ency, 3 3 1 -3 3 2 v iron m en t for c h ild d ev e lo p m en t
in IQ , 2 7 6 -2 9 5 index of problem s, 2 2 7 - 2 2 9
affirm ativ e action and: see A ffirm a low -IQ p revalen ce am o n g m oth ers
tive ac tio n a n d , 3 8 2 -3 8 4
A fric a n -A m e ric a n s co m p ared w ith m otor an d so cial d e v e lo p m e n t, 226,
A fr ic a n blacks, 2 8 9 -2 9 0 383
c o m p u ta tio n of, 278 poverty and, 2 2 9 - 2 3 0
d im in ish in g trend in, 2 9 0 -2 9 5 , tem peram en t, 226, 383
6 3 7-642 w elfare depen den cy an d , 229
d ro p o u t rates and, 474 C h ild ren ; See also C h ild d e v e lo p m e n t;
g e n e tic e x p la n a tio n of: see G e n e tic In fants; P aren tin g
fa cto rs in IQ ad o p tio n of, 3 0 9 - 3 1 1 ,4 1 0 413
m a g n itu d e of, 2 76, 2 7 7 -2 8 0 d evelop m en t o f civ ility in, 2 5 6 - 2 5 8
so c io e c o n o m ic status and, 2 8 6 - 2 8 8 im pact o f co gn itiv e stra tific a tio n on,
stan d ard ized tests and, 276 5 1 9 -5 2 0
test bias a n d : see T e st bias raising IQ of: see IQ : raisin g
u n ce rta in ty w ith in scien tific c o m ot single m others: set S in g le m oth ers
m u n ity abo u t, 2 9 5 -2 9 6 C ig arette sm okin g, 214
in M id d le -C la ss V alues Index, C itizen sh ip: see C iv ility
3 3 9 -3 4 0 C iv ility, 2 5 3 -2 6 6
in o c c u p a tio n a l statu s, 3 2 0 -3 2 2 defined, 254
B lac k b u rn , M cK in ley , 97 M id d le-C lass V alues In dex and,
B lac k E n g lish ," 6 36 2 6 3 -2 6 6 , 3 3 9 -3 4 0
b o k , D e re k , 6 6 , 8 0 p olitical p a rticip atio n as o u tcro p p in g
B o rja s, G e o rg e , 3 6 1 - 3 6 4 of: see P olitical p a rtic ip a tio n
B o y k in , W ad e, 3 0 6 C iv il R ig h ts A c t o f 1964, 3 9 4 , 4 8 2 ,
B righ a m , C a rl C ., 5, 6 4 8 5 - 4 8 7 ,4 9 0 , 4 9 1 ,6 5 5 - 6 5 7
Index 835
C iv il R ig h ts A c t o f 1 9 9 ], 4 8 2 , 504, 6 6 3 C o le m a n , Ja m e s S ., 3 9 4 -3 9 6
C iv il S e rv ic e C o m m issio n , 6 6 0 (C olem an report, 275, 3 9 4 - 3 9 6
C o a c h in g for test, 4 0 0 - 4 0 2 , 6 3 3 - 6 3 5 C o lle g e ad m issio n requ irem en ts, 4 1 , 4 3 1 ,
C o g n itiv e ability, use ot term , 22; See 439
also In te llig e n c e ; IQ C o lle g e B oard A c h ie v e m e n t T e sts,
C o g n iriv e classes an d so c ial prob lem s, 6 3 8 -6 4 0
1 1 7 -2 6 6 CCol lege enrol lm ent
d e fin itio n ot c o g n itiv e classes, a ffirm ativ e actio n and: see
120-122 A ffirm a tiv e action : in h ig h e r e d u c a
N a tio n a l L o n g itu d in a l S u rv ey ot tion
Youth ( N L S Y ) an d, 1 1 8 -1 2 0 , in e lite co lleg es, 37-39, 1 12
124 fe m in ist m o v em en t and, 11 2
p resen ta tio n of sta tistic a l results, gro w th of, 3 0 -3 2
1 2 2 -1 2 6 , 5 9 3 -6 2 3 p ro b ab ility of, 32-35
sp ecific pro b lem s: see C iv ility ; C rim e ; C o lle g e grades
Fam ily m a tte rs, L ab o r force c o g n itiv e test scores as p red icto rs of,
d ro p o u ts; P h y sical d isab ility ; 4 71-4 7 2
P overty; S c h o o l d ro p ou ts; U n e m as p re d ic to r of jo b prod u ctivity , 81
ploy m en t; W elfare d ep en d en c y (C ollege grad u ates
C o g n itiv e elite , 2 5 - 1 1 5 d iv o r c e probab ility and, 1 7 5 - 1 7 6
a sso rta tiv e m a tin g an d , 1 1 0 -1 1 3 e d u c a tio n a l stratificatio n a n d , 3 0 - 3 2 ,
ch aracteriz atio n of, 5 0 9 -5 1 1 3 5 -3 6 , 4 5 - 5 0
co a litio n s w ith a fflu en t, 5 1 4 -5 1 8 e th n ic d ifferen ces and, 3 1 9 - 3 2 0
cu sto d ial state sc e n ario an d , 52 3 - 5 2 6 fertility of, 3 4 9 -3 5 0 , 3 5 3 - 3 5 4
e d u ca tio n a l stra tific a tio n : see E d u c a illeg itim acy an d, 184
tio n a l stra tific a tio n in c o m e stratificatio n an d, 9 4 , 95
h e ritab ility of IQ an d , 1 0 5 - 1 1 0 low -b irth -w eigh t infants a n d , 21 7
iso latio n w ith in , 5 1 2 -5 1 3 m arriag e probability and, 172
jo b p ro d u ctiv ity , see Jo b p ro d u ctiv ity o c c u p a tio n a l stratificatio n an d , 5 9, 6 0 ,
m eritocracy a n d , 5 1 1 -5 1 2 6 4 -6 5
o c c u p a tio n a l stra tific a tio n : see O c c u p a re n tin g an d
p a tio n a l stratificatio n c o g n itiv e o u tco m es, 232
ph ysical se p a ra tio n ot, 1 0 1 -1 0 5 d e v e lo p m e n ta l problem s, 229
rules g en era ted by, 5 4 1 - 5 4 6 h o m e en v iro n m en t for c h ild d e v e l
w hite u n d erclass an d , 521 o p m en t, 225
C o g n itiv e stra tific a tio n , 2 5 - 2 7 ; See also p o v e rty th rou gh ou t c h ild h o o d , 2 2 0
CCognitive c la sse s an d so c ial b e p o v e rty an d , 1 3 5 -1 3 6 , 2 2 0
h avior; C o g n itiv e elite so c io e c o n o m ic statu s an d , 151 153
im pact of, 5 0 9 - 5 2 6 u n em p lo y m en t and, 1 6 4 -1 6 6
b e n efits, 5 1 1 - 5 1 2 v o tin g b e h av io r and, 259
on ch ild re n , 5 1 9 - 5 2 0 w elfare d ep en d en cy an d , 196,
co a litio n s o f co g n itiv e elite an d the 1 9 8 -1 9 9 , 201
afflu en t, 5 1 4 - 5 1 8 C o lle g e s, elite , 3 7 - 4 3 , 4 7 - 5 0 , 112,
em ergin g w h ite u n d erclass, 5 2 0 -5 2 1 4 5 1 -4 5 7
iso la tio n w ith in c o g n itiv e elite , C o llin s , M arv a, 399
5 1 2 -5 1 3 C o m p e n sa to ry ed u catio n , 3 9 8 - 3 9 9
sp a tia l c o n c e n tra tio n , low c o g n itiv e C o m p e titiv e fairness, 5 1 2 -5 1 3
ability, an d u n d erclass b e h av io r, C o n so r tiu m for L o n g itu d in al S tu d ie s,
522 4 0 5 -4 0 6
836 Index
C o n so rtiu m o n F in an cin g H igh er E d u c a low -cogn itive-abiliry p re v a le n c e and,

tion ( C O F H E ), 451 3 7 9 -3 8 0
C o o k , P hilip, 4 2 - 4 3 sin gle m others an d p overty a m o n g
C o r r e la tio n co efficien t, 2 - 3 , 6 7 - 6 9 , ch ild ren , 1 3 7-141
5 6 1 -5 6 4 so cio eco n o m ic statu s vs. IQ an d ,
C re d e n tia lin g , 6 4 - 6 5 , 6 9 , 3 2 5 - 3 2 7 , 4 4 5 , 174 -1 7 5
4 7 4 ,5 0 3 ,5 4 2 D ropouts: see Labor force d ro p o u ts;
C r im e , 2.35-25 1 S c h o o l dropouts
b ro k e n h o m es vs. IQ an d , 2 4 9 - 2 5 0 D ysgenesis, 3 4 1 -3 6 8
e d u c a tio n a l attain m e n t and, 2 5 0 -2 5 1 in A m e rica in th e early 1990s,
h isto ry of study o f link betw een IQ 3 4 8 -3 5 7
an d , 2 4 1 - 2 4 2 d efined, 342
im p o rta n ce o f link betw een IQ an d, d em ograph ic tran sitio n an d , 3 4 3 - 3 4 5
2 41-2 4 2 fertiliry an d: see Fertility, differen tial
in c a rc e ra tio n , 2 4 7 -2 5 0 , 365, 367 im m igration an d : see Im m ig ratio n
in c re ase in, 2 3 6 - 2 3 7 im portan ce of, .364-568
lo w -lQ p rev alen ce and, 3 7 5 - 3 7 6 regression to th e m ean an d , 357
p sy ch o lo g ica l th eories of, 2 3 7 - 2 4 1 , state o f know led ge ab o u t, 3 4 3 - 3 4 8
245
self-report d a ta , 2 4 5 - 2 5 0 E arles, Ja m e s, 76
so c io e c o n o m ic status, vs. IQ an d , E ducated p erso n 4 4 2 - 4 4 5
2 4 8-250 E d u cation , 4 1 7 -4 4 5
so c io lo g ic a l th eories of, 2 3 7 -2 4 1 affirm ative ac tio n in: see A ffirm ativ e
rypes o f crim in al in v olvem en r hy IQ , actio n : in high er e d u c a tio n
246-2 4 8 policy agen d a for, 43 5 445
C ry stallized in telligen ce, 15 raising IQ with, 3 9 3 -4 0 2 , 414
C u ltu ra l bias: see T est bias trends in
C u ltu r a l c o n te n t o f test item s, 2 8 1 - 2 8 2 average high sch ool stu d en ts,
C u ltu r a l ex p la n a tio n s o f eth n ic d iffer 4 1 9 -4 2 5
en ces in IQ , 3 0 4 -3 0 7 co llege-bou n d stu d en ts, 4 2 5 - 4 2 7
C u s to d ia l state, 5 2 3 -5 2 6 d u m b in g dow n, 4 2 9 - 4 3 4
gifted stu d en ts, 4 2 7 - 4 2 8 , 4 3 4 435
D arw in , C h a rle s, 1, 343 E ducational attain m e n t
D e m o grap h ic tran sitio n , 3 4 3 -3 4 5 affirm ative actio n and, 5 0 2 - 5 0 3
D em ograp h y o f in telligen ce: see D y sg en e assorti ve m atin g by, 1 1 0 -1 1 2
sis ch ild m altreatm en t an d , 211
D e p e n d e n t variable, 122 crim e an d, 2 5 0 -2 5 1
D e v e lo p m e n t, ch ild : see C h ild d e v e lo p d ivorce probability an d , 1 7 5 - 1 7 6
m en t em ploy m en t problem s an d
D igit sp a n test, 2 8 3 , 3 06 labor force dro pou ts, !5 7 , 160-1 6 1
D isability , 1 6 1 -1 6 3 , 365, 367 u n em ploy m en t, 1 6 4 -1 6 5
D iscip lin in g o f ch ild ren , 2 0 5 -2 0 6 eth n ic d ifferen ces in, 3 1 9 - 3 2 0 ,
"D isp a r a te im p a c t in a n tid isc rim in a tio n 3 2 4 -3 2 5 , 3 5 3 - 3 5 4
law, 4 8 2 , 6 5 7 - 6 6 2 fertility a n d , 3 4 9 -3 5 0 , 35 3 -3 5 4
D iv o rce illegitim acy and, 184
hy c o g n itiv e cla ss, 1 7 3 -1 7 4 incom e stratficatio n an d , 9 4 - 9 8
e d u c a tio n a l a tta in m e n t an d , 1 7 5 -1 7 6 m arriage rates an d , 1 7 1 -1 7 2
in te rg e n e ra tio n a l tran sm ission of, o c cu p atio n al stratificatio n an d , 52,
1 7 6 -1 7 7 57 -6 0 , 64
Index 83 7
parenting and in educational attainment, 319-320

developmental problems, 229 324-325, 353-354
home environment tor child devel in fertility, 352-357
opment, 225 immigration and, 359-360
low-birth-weight infants, 217 in income, 322-327
poverty throughout childhood, 220 on indicators of social problems,
poverty and, 135-137, 220 327-340
as predictor of job productivity, 81, 89 cognitive outcomes for children,
school dropouts: see School dropouts 337-338
socioeconomic status and, 151-153 crime, 338-339
voting behavior and, 259-261 developmental outcomes for chil
welfare dependency and, 193, dren, 336-337
196-197,198-199 home environment for children,
Educational standards, 429-433, 437, 334, 336
439-440 illegitimacy, 330-331
Educational stratification labor force dropouts, 327-328
college degree and, 3032, 35-36, low-birth-weight infants, 332-333,
45-50 334
effects of, 49-50 marriage rates, 329, 330
elite colleges and, 37-49 poverty, 326-327, 333-334
extent of, 45-50 unemployment, 327-329
growth of college population and, welfare dependency, 331-332
30-32 in IQ , 269-315
high school diploma and, 3235 affirmative action and: see Affirma
Egalitarianism, 9, 107, 500, 527, tive action
532-534 Asian American and white,
Elementary and Secondary Education 272-276, 299-301
Act (ESEA) of 1965, 398, 434 black and white: see Black and
Elliott, Delbert, 250 white differences: in IQ
Employment, 155-166 cultural explanations of, 304
affirmative action and: see Affirmative 307
action: in the workplace genetics and, 295-311
labor force dropouts: see Labor force Jews and gentiles, 275
dropouts Latinos and non-Latino whites,
low-lQ prevalence and, 372-375 275
physical disability, 161-163, 365, 367 in Middle-Class Values Index,
unemployment: see Unemployment 339-340
Employment tests, 481484, 502, in occupational status, 320-322
655-663 in reproductive strategies, 642-643
Environmental factors in intelligence, Eugenic Hypothesis, 346
8-9, 106, 108, 298-299,
303-304,309-315,342-343, Factor analysis, 3-4, 18-19
410; See also IQ: raising Family structure, 167-190; See also D i
Equal Employment Opportunities C o m vorce; Illegitimacy; Marriage
mission (EEOC), 655-658, 660, crime and, 249-250
661 single mothers: see Single mothers
Ethnic differences traditional, deterioration of, 190
in aptitude test scores, affirmative ac trends in, 173
tion and, 451458 Feminism, 112-113
838 Index
Fertility, differential, 3 42-357 Gordon, Robert, 3 38

dem ographic transition and, 343-345 Goring, Charles, 241
ethnicity and, 352-357 Gottfredson, Linda, 321
mother's age and IQ and, 351-352, G ould, S te p h e n ]., 12, 296
354-355 Graduate Record Exam ination (G R E ),
number of children born and, 4 5 7 ^ 5 8 ,6 4 1 - 6 4 2
3 4 9 -3 5 1 ,3 5 3 -3 5 4 Griggs v. Duke Power (1971), 70, 85,
Fertility policy, 548-549 4 8 2 ,4 8 5 ,4 8 6 , 490, 4 9 1 ,6 5 7 -
Finch, Frank, 145 658, 663
Fletcher, Ronald, 12 Guilford, Joy, 15
Fluid intelligence, 15 Gustafsson, Jan-Eric, 304
Flynn, Jam es, 2 7 3 ,3 0 7 , 3 0 8 ,3 4 8
Flynn effect, 307-309, 346-347, 391, Hacker, Andrew, 4 9 7 -4 9 8
397, 422 Hamilton, Alexander, 531
Founding Fathers, 530-532 Hartigan Com m ittee, 7475, 85, 484
Frank, Robert, 42-43 Harvard University, 28-29, 38, 40, 41,
Frequency distributions, 553-555 43, 66, 451-454
Head Start, 4 0 3 -4 0 4 , 4 1 4 -4 1 5 , 434
G alton , Sir Francis, 1-2, 26, 284 H eath, Shirley Brice, 206-207
Garber, Howard, 408 Heber, Richard, 408
Gardner, Howard, 18-19, 21, 22, 637 Heckman, Jam es, 147-148, 1 5 1 ,4 8 5
G ate s, Bill, 114 Heritahility of IQ: see G en etic factors in
G E D (G eneral Educational D evelop IQ
m ent), 147-148, 153-154, 372 Herrnstein, Richard, 10
G en der differences in IQ, 275 Herrnstein's syllogism, 105, 108-110
G eneral Aptitude Test Battery (G A T B ), Higham, John, 358
72-73, 504 High School and Beyond survey,
G en eral iactor (g) of intelligence, 3 -4 183-184
challenges to, 14-15, 18 High school dropouts: see Sch ool
classicists and, 14, 15, 22-23 dropouts
defined, 4 High school graduates
job productivity and, 71, 75-79 divorce probability and, 175-176
reaction time and, 283-284 dropouts compared with, 148-150
Spearm ans hypothesis, 301-303, 631, ethnic differences and, 319
636 fertility of, 349, 350
G en etic factors in IQ, 23, 105-110, G E D graduates com pared with,
295-311 150-151
controversy over, 8-12 illegitimacy and, 184
demography of intelligence and: see income of, 94, 95
Dysgenesis low-hirth-weight infants and, 217
estim ation of, 105-108 marriage probability and, 172
Herrnstein's syllogism and, 105, m edian overlap with college graduates,
108-110 48-49
role of genes in individuals and groups, parenting and
2 98-299 cognitive outcom es, 232
Spearm ans hypothesis and, 301-305 developm ental problem s, 229
G h iselli, Edwin, 72 hom e environm ent for child devel
G illie, Oliver, 11 opm ent, 225
G o d d ard , H. H ., 6, 241 poverty throughout childhood, 220
Index 839
poverty and, 136-137, 220 Illiteracy, 420, 436

probability of college enrollm ent by, Im m igration, 5, 6, 342, 343, 356-364
3 2 -3 5 ethnicity and IQ as they apply to,
unem ploym ent am ong, 164-165 35 9 -3 6 0
welfare dependency and, 196-197, policy and, 549
1 98-199 self-selection and, 3 6 1 -3 6 4
H indelang, M ichael, 242 trend in, 356-358
Hiring decisions: see A ffirm ative action; Im m igration Restriction A c t of 1924, 6,
Joh productivity 343
Hirsch, Jerry, 9 - 1 0 Incom e, 93-101
Hirschi, Travis, 242 black, affirmative action and, 4 85-486
Hobbes, T h om as, 528-529 education al attainm ent and, 94-98
Holm es, O liver W endell, 5 elite college attendance and, 41
Hom e environm ent for child develop eth n ic differences in, 3 22-327
m ent, 22 0 -2 2 5 grow th of affluent class and, 515-517
adoption and, 4 1 0 -4 1 3 , 4 1 5 -4 1 6 high school achievem ent and, 438
cognitive outcom es and, 232 IQ and, 93-94, 98 -1 0 0
educational attain m ent and, 225 occupation al stratfication and, 97, 98,
ethnic differences in, 334, 336 100-101
low -cognitive-ability prevalence and, redistribution issues, 547-548
381-381 residual characteristics of workers and,
poverty and, 2 2 3 -2 2 4 96 -9 8
socioeconom ic status and, 222-223 Independent variable, 122
welfare and, 2 2 3 -2 2 4 Infants
Hom e O bservation for M easurem ent o f illegitim ate: see Illegitimacy
the Environm ent (H O M E ) in low-birth-weight: see Low-Birth-
dex, 2 2 0 - 2 2 5 ,2 3 2 ,3 8 1 - 3 8 2 w eight infants
Homogamy, 111-113 m aternal IQ and well-being of,
Humphrey, Hubert, 500, 659 213-218
Hunt, Earl B., 16 mortality, 217-218
Hunter, Joh n , 7 1 -7 3 , 85 m otor and social developm ent in, 226,
Hunter, R onda, 85 383
tem peram ent in, 226, 383
Idiot savants, 22 Intelligence: See also IQ
Illegitimacy, 1 7 7 -1 9 0 con cept of, 1
broken hom es and, 184-186 definitions of, 4
developm ental problem s and, 2 2 9 -2 3 0 general factor (g) of: see General fac
educational attain m en t and, 184 tor (g) of intelligence
ethnic differences in, 330-331 as inform ation processing, 15-17
family structure and, 184-186 structures of, 14-15
IQ and, 179, 181, 200-201 theory o f multiple, 17-21
low IQ prevalence and, 3 8 6 -3 8 9 triarchic theory of, 17
poverty and, 1 86-190 Iowa Test of Educational Developm en
as precursor o f child m altreatm ent, (IT E D ), 4 2 3 ,4 2 4
210 IQ ; See also Intelligence
socioeconom ic status and, 182-183, affirm ative action and: see Affirm
186, 1 88-189 action, 98 -1 0 0
trends in, 178-179 behaviorists and, 8 -9
welfare and, 1 8 6 -1 9 0 classical tradition, 23
840 Index
IQ, cow. Kael, Pauline, 513

controversies over, 4-13 Kam in, Leon, 11, 304, 311
developm ent of concept, 4 Katz, Lawrence, 94
dysgenesis and: see Dysgenesis Kaufman Assessm ent Battery of Children
environm ental factors in, 8-9, 106, (K -A B C ), 290
108, 298-299, 303-307, 309-315, Kaus, Mickey, 512
342, 410 Klitgaard, Robert, 459
ethnic differences in: see Ethnic differ Kohn, M elvin, 205-206
ences
heritability of: see Genetic factors in Labor force participation, 1 57-162
IQ by cognitive class, 158
im portance of, 21-22 defined, 157
low: see Low cognitive ability educational attainm ent and, 160, 161
raising, 388-416 ethnic differences in, 327-328
adoption and, 410-413, 415-416 low-IQ prevalence and, 373-374
education and, 393-402, 414 socioeconom ic status and, 1 58,
nutrition and, 391-393, 414 158-160
policy agenda for, 4 13416 Latino(s)
pre-school programs, 403-410, affirmative action and, 451458, 472,
414-415 503
stability over life span of, 129 cognitive outcom es tor children,
stratification by: see Cognitive classes 337-338
and social behavior; Cognitive crime and, 338, 339
elite developm ental outcom es for children,
336
Jefferson, Thom as, 530-531 differences in IQ wirh non-Latino
Jencks, Christopher, 53 whites, 275
Jensen, Arthur, 9-10, 13, 15, 283-284, educational attainm ent of, 319-320
302-304, 308 fertility in, 353-354
Jew ish and gentile differences in IQ, 275 home environm ent tor children, 334,
Jo b productivity, 63-89 336
affirmative action and, 492-498 illegitimacy and, 33 0 -3 3 1
contemporary evidence on test scores immigrants, 358-360, 362
as predictors ot, 70-71 income of, 322, 323
economic costs of not testing and, 85-87 low-birth-weight infants of, 326,
economic value of IQ and, 65, 82-86, 332-333, 334
88 marriage rates of, 329, 3 30
experience vs. IQ and, 79-80 in M iddle-Class Values Index,
high school performance and, 439 3 39-340
measurement of, 72 occupational status ot, 320-322
meta-analysis and, 71-7 3 poverty of children, 3 33-334
specific skills vs. general facto rg and, unemployment of, 327, 328
75-79 welfare dependency of, 3 3 1- 3 32
test scores com pared with other pre Law school, affirmative action and,
dictors of, 81-82 455456
test validity and, 72-75, 81, 84, 85, Law School A ptitude Test (L S A T ), 450,
658, 660, 661 4 5 5 - 4 5 6 ,6 3 3 - 6 3 4
Joynson, Robert, 1 2 Laiar, Irving, 405
Jungeblut, A n n , 401 Lewontin, Richard, 304
Iruiex 841
Lindzey, G ., 310 M iddle-C lass V alues (M C V ) Index,

Lippm ann, Walter, 5, 17-18 2 6 3 -2 6 6 , 339-340, 385
Locke, Joh n , 52 9 -5 3 0 M ilitary jobs, 7 3 -7 7 , 80
Locurto, C h arles, 408, 411 Mills, C . W right, 58
Loehlin, J. C ., 510 M ilw aukee Project, 4 0 8 - 4 0 9
Logistic regression analysis, 122-126, M in n esota M ultiphasic Personality In
567, 5 9 5 -6 2 3 , 645-653 ventory (M M P1), 7
Low-birth-weight infants M ulticollinearity, 124
child m altreatm ent and, 2 10 M ulticulturalism in curriculum , 433
ethnic differences in, 332, 333 M ultiple intelligence, theory of, 17-21
low -lQ prevalence and, 381-382 M ultiple regression analysis, 5 6 6 -5 6 7
maternal IQ and, 214-217 M urchison, C arl, 241
Lynn, Richard, 2 7 2-274, 289, 359 Murphy, Kevin, 94
M adison, Janies, 531, 532 N ation al A cadem y o f S cien ces, 74

Maguire, Tim othy, 450, 455 N atio n al A ssessm en t of Educational
M alinowski, Bronislaw, 177 Progress (N A E P ), 2 9 0 -2 9 1 , 292,
M alparenfing, 2 0 7 -2 1 0 2 9 4 ,4 2 0 ,4 2 2
parental IQ and, 211-213 N ation al L ongitudinal Survey of Youth
socioeconom ic status and, 20 7 -2 1 0 (N L S Y ), description of, 36, 49,
Mare, Robert, 1 1 1 56, 98, 113, 1 1 8-120, 124, 347,
Marriage, 168-172; See also D ivorce 5 69-577
age at, 169-171 N eglect: see C h ild abuse and neglect
assertive m ating, 110-113 N eighborhoods, 5 37-540
rates of N eu m an , R ussell, 2 61-262
educational attainm ent and, N eunw rk, D avid, 97
171-172 N ie, N orm an , 259, 260
ethnic differences in, 329, 330 N orm al distribution, 44, 5 6 8 -5 7 0
IQ and, 169-172 N u trition , 391-393, 414
socioeconom ic status and, 170-172
trends in, 168-169 Occupational status
M assachusetts Institute of Technology affirm ative action and, 4 8 5 -4 8 6 ,
(M IT ), 43, 454, 4 73-475 4 8 8 -4 9 2
M ath skills, 4 2 2 -4 2 3 , 4 2 5 ^ 2 9 , 4 3 1 - eth n ic differences in, 3 2 0 -3 2 2
43 3 v otin g behavior and, 2 5 9 -2 6 0
M ating, assorrative, 110-113 O ccupation al stratification, 51-61
M cGurk, Frank, 631 assortative m ating and, 1 12-113
M edian overlap, 4 8 -4 9 business executives and, 57 -6 0
M edical C ollege Adm issions Test childh ood in telligen ce and adult o u t
(M C A T ), 456, 4 5 7 ,6 3 3 -6 3 4 com es an d, 5 3
M edical schools, affirmative action and, educational attain m en t and, 52,
45 6 -4 5 7 5 7-60, 64
M ental retardation, intensive interven education al credentials an d, 6 4 -6 5
tions for children at risk of, fam ily resem blan ce in status and,
4 0 6 -4 0 9 53-54
Mercer, Jan e, 3 04-306 grow th of h igh-IQ professions and,
Meritocracy, 511-512 54-57
Messick, Sam uel, 401 incom e stratification an d, 97, 98,
M eta-analysis, 71-73 100-101
84 2 Index
Ogbu, John , 307 Perry Preschool Program, 4 04-405

Osborn, Frederick, 346 Physical disability, 161-163, 365, 367
Out-of-wedlock births: see Illegitimacy Piaget, Jean, 16
Polansky, N orm an, 212
Panel Study o f Income Dynamics, 119 Policy agenda, 527-552
Parenting, 2 03-233 for affirmative action
abuse and neglect in higher education, 4 75-477
parental IQ and, 211-213 in the workplace, 4 9 8 -5 0 8
socioeconom ic status and, 207-210 demography issues, 5 48-549
educational attainment and for education, 4 35-445
cognitive outcomes, 232 realism about how federal reforms
developm ental problems and, 229 will work, 439-442
home environm ent for child devel realism about limits of general im
opm ent, 225 provements, 436439
low-birth-weight infants, 217 restoring concept of educated per
poverty throughout childhood, 220 son, 442445
good," 204-205 equality as an ideal, 528-535
maternal IQ income distribution, 5 47-548
child developm ent and: see Child raising IQ, 4 13-416
developm ent rule sim plification, 5 41-556
cognitive outcomes and, 230-232, valued places in society, 535-540
33 7 -3 3 8 Political participation, 255-263
ethnic differences in, 334-338 developm ent in children, 256-258
low-IQ prevalence, 377-384 voting behavior, 258-263
well-being o f infants and, 213-218; educational attainm ent and,
See also Low-birth-weight infants, 259-261
3 3 2 -3 3 3 ,3 3 4 IQ and, 261-262
poverty and, 137-141 socioeconom ic status and, 258-259
single mothers: see Single mothers Poverty, 127-142
socioeconom ic status and child abuse and, 209
abuse and neglect, 207-210 educational attainm ent and, 135-137,
cognitive outcomes, 230-232 220
developm ental problems, 228 ethnic differences in, 326-3 2 7 , 3 33,
home environm ent for child devel 334
opm ent, 222-223 history of, 128-129
parenting style, 205-207 low-birth-weight infants and, 216-217
poverty throughout childhood, low-IQ prevalence and, 370-371
2 18-220 parenting and
Partitioning, cognitive: see Cognitive cognitive outcom es, 232
classes and social behavior; C o g developm ental problem s, 229
nitive elite throughout early childhood,
Payner, Brook, 485 2 1 8 -2 2 0 ,3 3 3 -3 3 4 , 3 6 5 ,3 6 7
Peabody Picture Vocabulary Test home environm ent for child devel
(P P V T ), 230-231, 337-338, 355 opm ent, 223-224
Pearson, Karl, 2 - 3 , 15 illegitimacy, 187-190
Peckham , R obert, 11 low-IQ prevalence, 382-383
Pelton, Leroy, 210 m aternal IQ, 138-139, 2 18-220
Percentiles, 5 5 8 -5 5 9 m aternal socioeconom ic status,
Perkins, Frances, 192 139-141
Index 843
welfare: .sec' W elfare dependency S c h o la stic A p titu d e Test (S A T ), 1 1 ,1 2

socioeconom ic status and h ias ag ain st b lacks and, 2 8 0 -2 8 2
vs. IQ, 1 3 0-137, 141-142 black and white differen ces in scores
ot single m others, 1 39-140 affirm ativ e action an d, 4 5 1 - 4 5 8
Predictive validity: see Validity, test n arrow in g gap in, 292, 2 9 4 -2 9 5 ,
Preliminary S c h o lastic A ptitude Test 63 8 -6 3 9
(P S A T ), 422 c o a c h in g an d , 4 0 0 402, 6.33-634
Prenatal care, 214 c o n v e rsio n into IQ scores, 3839
Pre-school program s, 403-4 1 0 , 4 1 4 - d e c lin e in scores
415 av erage high school students and,
Project Intelligence, 410 4 2 2 -4 2 3
Psychometrics, 1-24 of college-b oun d students, 4 2 5
controversies in, 8-1 4 427
history of, 1-14 verb al, of gifted students, 4 2 8 - 4 2 9
schools of, 14-24 d istrib u tio n for all high sch ool seniors:
1 9 6 1 ,4 0
Quay, L. C., 636 E ast A sia n s and, 301
e lite c o lleges and, 3 9 - 4 0 , 43, 49
Race n o rm in g , 45 3, 503-504 H a rv a rd U n iversity : 1952 and I9 6 0 ,
Racism , 6, 9-10, 328, 358, 453, 525- 29
526 as p re d icto r o f life success, 66, 80
Ramey, C raig, 407 S c h o o l d ropouts, 1 4 3 -1 5 1 , 15 3 -1 5 4
Ravens Stan dard Progressive M atrices by c o g n itiv e class, 1 46-147
(SP M ), 273, 290, 306 crim e and, 2 5 0
Reaction tim e, 28.3-284, 303 IQ of, 1 4 5 -1 4 6
Ree, M alcolm , 76 lo w -lQ p revalen ce an d, 37 1 -3 7 2
Regression analysis, 565-567, 593-62 3 so c io e c o n o m ic statu s vs. IQ and,
logistic, 567 147-151
cognitive classes and social b e h av w elfare d epen den cy and, 199
ior, 122-1 2 6 , 593-62.3 S e p a ra te d m others: see S in g le m others
ethnic in equalities in relation ro Sh ockley , W illiam , 10
IQ, 6 4 5 -6 5 3 Silverb erg , Eugene, 4 96, 497
multiple, 5 6 6 -5 6 7 S in g le m others
regression coefficients, 56.5-566 divorced : see D ivorce
Regression to the mean, 357 d ivorce prob ab ilities o f ch ildren and,
Reich, Robert, 517 176
Retherford, Robert, 169 illegitim acy : see Illegitim acy
Reynolds, C yril, 302 poverty and
Roberts, G w ilym , 392 am o n g ch ildren , 137-141
Roper O rganization, 515 illegitim acy, 1 8 7 -1 9 0
Rose, Steven , .313 w elfare depen dency: see W elfare d e
Rosenstone, Stev en , 259 pen den cy
Rothm an, Stan ley, 295 Sk in n er, R. F., 8
R u sh to n ,]. Philippe, 642-643 Sn y d erm an , M ark, 295
S o c ia l problem s: see C o g n itiv e classes
Scarr, San d ra, 3 0 9 -3 1 0 and so cial problem s; E th n ic d if
Scarter, diagram s, 560-561 feren ces: on in dicato rs of social
Schiff, M ichel, 411 problem s; Low co gn itiv e ability:
Schm idt, Frank, 71 social problem s and p rev alen ce of
844 Index
Socioeconom ic status (S E S ) meta-analysis, 71-73

black and white differences and normal distribution, 44, 556-558
in income, 324-325 regression analysis: see Regression
in IQ, 286-288 analysis
college graduates and, 151-1 53 regression to the mean, 357
crime and, 248-250 restriction of range, 6 8 -6 9
divorce probability and, 174-175 standard deviations: see Standard devi
educational attainment: see Educa ations
tional attainment validity, 72-75, 81, 8487
employment problems and, 158-166 Sternberg, Robert, 16, 17
ethnic differences in, 274-275 Stevenson, Harold, 274, 300, 437
illegitimacy and, 182-183, 186, Sutherland, Edwin, 241
188-189 System of Multicultural Pluralistic A s
low-birth-weight infants and, 215, 216 sessment (SO M P A ), 304-306
marriage and, 112, 172-174
parenting and, 205-210, 222-223, TA L EN T , 118 - U 9, 146,42 3
229-232, 230-232 Teacher com petency exam inations,
political socialization of children and, 493-494
257 Terman, Lewis, 5, 7, 57, 162
poverty and, 130-137, 139-142, Test bias, 12, 280-286, 6 2 5 -6 3 7
218-220 external evidence of, 280-281,
school dropouts and, 147-151 4 8 3 ^ 8 4 , 62 5 -6 3 0
voting behavior and, 258-259 internal evidence of, 2 81-282
welfare dependency and, 195-201 item bias, 630-63 3
Socioeconom ic stratification situational
educational stratification and, 30 coaching, 633-635
heritability of IQ and, 105-110 exam iner bias, 635
Herrnsteins syllogism and, 10, 105, language difficulties, 282, 6 36,
108-110 637
residential segregation and, 104-105 m otivation to try, 282-284
Sow ell, Thomas, 363, 430 practice effects, 63 3-635
Spearm an, Charles, 2-4, 14, 15 test anxiety, 635
Spearm an s hypothesis, 301-304, 631, uniform background," 285-286
636 Test validity: see Validity, test
Spuhler, J. N., 310 Thurstone, Louis, 15
Stan dard deviations Transracial adoption study, 3 09-310
com putation of, 555-556
defined, 44, 557-558 Underclass
norm al distribution and, 44, 557-558 attitudes of cognitive elite toward,
Stan dard scores, 556 521, 523
Stanford-B inet IQ test, 5, 7, 290, 308 custodial state scenario and, 52 3-526
Statistics, 553-567 spatial concentration and, 522, 524
correlation coefficient, 23, 67-69, white, emerging, 520-521
561-564 Unem ployment, 163-165
dependent variable, 122 educational attainm ent and, 164-165
factor analysis, 3-4, 18-19, 6 80-683 ethnic differences in, 327-329
frequency distributions, 55 3-555 low-lQ prevalence and, 374-375
independent variable, 122 socioeconom ic status vs. IQ and,
m edian overlap, 4849 163-165
Index 8 45
Uniform G u id elin es on E m ployee S e le c W ech sler A d u lt Intelligence S c a le

tion Procedures, 485, 4 8 6 , 490, (W A IS ), 7, 151-152, 290
660-6 6 2 W ech sler In telligen ce Scale for C hildren
U niversity ot C alifo rn ia ill Berkeley, 43, (W 1 S C ), 7, 275, 302, 303
45 5-455 W eikarr, D avid, 404
U niversity ot V irginia, 45 3454 W einberg, R ich ard, 30 9 -3 1 0
W elfare dependency, 191-201
Validity, rest c h ild abuse and, 209
joh productivity and, 7 2 -7 5 , 81, ch ro n ic, 194, 196-199
8 4 - 8 7 , 658, 660, 661 by co gn itiv e class, 193-195
tesr b ias and, 2 8 0 -2 8 1 , 4 8 3 - 4 8 4 , d e v e lo p m en tal problems an d, 229
6 2 5 -6 3 0 ed u c atio n al attainm ent and, 193,
Valued places in society, 5 3 5 -5 4 0 1 9 6 -1 9 7 , 198-199
Van C ou rt, M arian, 347 e th n ic differences in, 3 3 1 -3 3 2
Variables, 122 h o m e en viron m en t for child develop
Verba, Sidney, 259, 260 m en t a n d , 223-224
Verbal skills, 3 0 0 -3 0 1 , 4 2 2 ^ 2 3 , illeg itim acy and, 186-187, 1 88-190
4 2 5 - 4 2 9 , 431, 4 3 ) , 443 lo w -lQ prevalen ce and, 3 7 6 -3 7 7
Vernon, Philip, 15, 273, 3 00-301 p ro b ab ilities after birth o f first child,
V incent, Ken, 290 1 9 5 -1 9 6
Vining, D aniel, Jr ., 347 so c io e c o n o m ic status and, 195-201
Voss, H arw in, 250 tren ds in, 192-193
Voting behavior, 255, 258263 W estin gh ou se S cie n ce Talent Search ,
education al attain m en t an d, 25 9 -2 6 1 4 2 -4 3
IQ an d, 2 6 1 -2 6 2 W h ite , T .H ., 53 2 -5 3 3
socioecon om ic status an d, 2 5 8 -2 5 9 W ilso n , Ja m e s Q 543
W ilson , W illiam Julius, 522
Wages: .see Incom e W olfinger, R aym ond, 258, 259
Wcmls C o w Packing C u . , Inc. v. A tom o W o n d erlic Person n el Test, 504
(1 9 8 9 ), 6 6 6 -6 6 7
W ashington, G eorge, 531 Young, L eon tin e, 213
W echsler, D avid, 6 -7
From
T h is book is about differences in intellectual capacity

among people and groups, and what those differences
mean for Am erica's future. T h e relationships we will
be discussing are among the m ost sensitive in contem
porary America so sensitive that hardly anyone writes
or talks about them in public. It is not for lack o f infor
mation, as you will see.
To try to come to grips with the nation's problems

without understanding the role o f intelligence is to see
through a glass darkly indeed, to grope with symptoms
instead o f causes, to stumble into supposed remedies that
have no chance o f working.
We are not indifferent to the ways in which this book,

wrongly construed, might do harm. We have worried
about them from the day we set to work. But there c,in
be no real progress in solving America's social problems
when they are as misperceived as they are today. W hat
good can come o f understanding the relationship o f
intelligence to social structure and public policy? Little
good can come without it.
C U R R E N T A F F A IR S

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In our time, the ability to use and manipulate ployment, work-related injury, out o f wedlock

The Free Press

Printed in the United States of America

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

We wrote with your w orld in our thoughts

so m e B ig o ts a n d E n th u siasts, a n d th ro u g h F e a r a sse n te d to by s o m e w iser

an d b e tte r M e n ; it is this. T h e y arg u e a g a in st a fair D is c u s sio n o f p o p

re a so n a b le S u p p o rt, yet th e D isc o v e ry m ig h t be p r o d u c tiv e o f th e m o st

H a p p in e ss w as n o t c o n n e c te d w ith th e P ra c tic e o f V irtu e , w h ic h n e c

2 C o g n itiv e P a rtitio n in g by O c c u p a tio n

7 U n e m p lo y m e n t, Id len ess, an d In jury

8 Fam ily M atters 167

12 C iv ility and C itizen sh ip 253

13 E thn ic D ifferences in C o g n itiv e A b ility 269

14 E th n ic In eq u alities in R e la tio n to I Q 317

15 T h e D em ograph y o f In te llig e n c e 341

17 R aisin g C o g n itiv e A b ility 389

18 T h e L evelin g o f A m e ric a n E d u c a tio n 417

19 A ffirm ative A c t io n in H ig h e r E d u c a tio n 447

2 0 A ffirm ative A c tio n in th e W o rk p lac e 479

22 A P lace for E v ery o n e 527

4 R eg ressio n A n a ly se s from P art II 593

5 S u p p le m e n ta l M a te ria l for C h a p te r 13 625

6 R e g re ssio n A n a ly se s fro m C h a p te r 1 4 645

7 T h e E v o lu tio n o f A ffirm a tiv e A c t io n

In th e tw e n tie th century, th e p re v a le n c e o f th e c o lle g e d e g re e g o e s fro m

C o n tro llin g for IQ c u ts the eth n ic disparity in h om e e n v iro n m e n ts by

S ix ty -th re e p ercen t o f ch ild ren w ho lived in p overty th ro u g h o u t

O v e rla p A cro ss th e E d u c atio n al P a rtitio n s 49

C rim in a lity a n d IQ A m o n g W h ite M ales 246

W e h a v e d esign ed The Bell C urve to be read at several levels.

R e g a rd in g th o se pesky im personal third-person sin g u lar pro-

T h is b o o k is ab ou t d ifferen ces in in te lle c tu a l c a p a c it y a m o n g p e o p le an d

sionaL sc h o o ls, re g ard le ss o f their p aren ts w ealth . A fte r they c o m p le te

w ith sy m p to m s in ste a d o f causes, to stu m b le in to su p p o se d rem ed ies th a t

T h e first th in g th at m ade this book p o ssib le w as our good fortu n e in b e

C a p lic e , Jo se p h Fazioli, and one other who asked to rem ain an o n y m o u s

R ich ard J. H e rrn ste in

T h a t th e word intelligence d escribes so m e th in g re a l an d th a t it v a rie s

V ariatio n in in telligen ce becam e the su b je c t o f p ro d u c tiv e s c ie n tific

Hereditary G enius, p u b lish ed ju st a d ecad e after the a p p e aran ce o f O ri

h ad no way o f say in g exactly h ow m u ch th e y w ere related. W ith P ear

S p e arm a n th e n m ad e a n o th e r m ajo r co n trib u tion to the stu d y o f in

in g the results of m e n tal tests to support ou trageo u s racial p olicies. S te r

Fact and Fiction A bout Im migration and Intelligence Testing

C r itic s resp o n d ed vo cally. Y oung W alter L ip p m an n , already an in

lished an im p ro v ed versio n o f th e S tan fo rd -B in e t. But these tests w ere

T h e n c a m e th e 1960s, an d a new con troversy ab ou t in telligen ce tests

in th e rec eiv ed w isd o m re g ard in g equality. T h is w as m o st e v id e n t in the

co m p eten t g o v ern m en t. Further, th e cau ses o f th ese deficien cies could be

T h e u p roar w as e x a c e rb a te d by W illiam Sh ockley, w h o h ad w on th e

tests reach ed its ap ogee in 1978 in the c a se o f Larry P. Ju d g e R o b e r t P e c k -

It would be more th a n a d e cad e before the Burt affair was su bjected to de

p e o p led by c h a rla ta n s, rac ists, and self-deluded fools, and c o n c lu d e d

Intelligence is a bankrupt concept. Whatever it might m ean and nobody

tro v e rsia l h y p o th e se s w ere p u t to th e test. S o m e tim e s th ey w ere c o n

T h e C la ssic ists: Intelligence a s a Structure

T h e c la ssic ists w ork w ith in th e trad itio n begun by S p e a rm a n , se e k in g

The R evision ists: Intelligence as Inform ation Processing

A theory o f in telligen ce need n o t be stru ctu ral. T h e e m p h a sis may be

d isc o v e re d q u ick ly th a t h e w as less in te re ste d in h o w w ell th e c h ild re n

p lo y ? H o w d o th ey trad e o ff sp e e d a n d accu racy ? H o w d o th ey c o m b in e

T h e R a d ic a ls: T h e T h eory o f M ultiple Intelligences

W alter L ip p m a n n s h o stility to w ard in te llig e n c e te stin g w as g ro u n d e d