E370

2/24/2016
Continuing Continuous
Distributions Part 3the
Normal
Actually,a family of distributions, each
defined by a unique mean and unique
standard deviation.
Normals are
continuous distributions
f(x) is a really complicated formula
the curve is bell shaped and symmetric about X =
the curve is defined from - to +
mean = median = mode =

The Normal Distribution

 Data that are influenced by many small and
unrelated random effects are approximately
normally distributed.
For example, a students SAT score is the result
of genetics, nutrition, illness, last nights beer
party, whether it was hard to find a parking
spot the day the test was taken and cultural
factors.
When you include ALL the factors, you get the
Normal!

Why is the NORMAL so important?

Remember the binomial as n increases?
. . . any asymmetry is overwhelmed as n gets large.
When n gets large enough, the binomial resembles a
smooth, symmetric curve, that is bell-shaped the
NORMAL
The Normal is Everywhere:
stock market fluctuations
student weights
yearly temperature averages
SAT scores
Natural Processes such as plant growth
The
Normal is an example of a distribution to
which we can apply the Normal Rule.

As n increases . . .
 Thenormal American male will spend 2,965
hours shaving during his lifetime.
What does this mean?
What does it mean to be normal?
Describe in words what the shape of the normal
distribution is saying about the observations that
make it up.
Talk this over a little bit. . .

What does normal mean?

The normal is a two parameter
distribution, like the binomial and the
uniform.
It
is completely defined by the parameters
and
We will represent it with this notation:

X ~ N( , )

Normal notation
A little review of linear transformations: If X is
continuous with a mean of x, and a standard
deviation of x,

how is distributed?

A little puzzle and practice

Two New Excel Commands:
=NORM.DIST(X,, , 1)
o X is the value of the random variable
where the desired area stops.
o is the mean of the distribution.
o is the standard deviation of the
distribution.
o 1 means that the area is accumulated
beginning at .

Excel and the normal

 Allalcoholic beverages served at all bars in the
Bellagio Resort, Casino and Hotel in Las Vegas
are dispensed electronically from the "Pump
Room" in the basement of the complex. For
mixed drinks, the system is calibrated to
dispense 1.5 ounces of distilled spirits per drink
on average, however, the actual amount
dispensed is a normally distributed random
variable with a standard deviation of 0.1
ounces.

At the Bellagio . . .
 Suppose the
Bellagio knows
that customers will
begin to complain
if the amount of
alcohol in a mixed
drink falls below
1.35 ounces. What
is the probability
that customers will
begin to complain
on any given day?

=NORM.DIST(1.35,1.5,0.1,1) = 0.0668
o A nice feature of
continuous
distributions is that
they can be
inverted, so not
only can we
calculate
probabilities, but
we can determine
the value of the
random variable
that corresponds to
a known area or
probability.

More Excel and the normal

 o =NORM.INV(, , )
o is the probability to the left of the
value you are seeking.
o is the mean of the distribution
o is the standard deviation of the
distribution.

The command and arguments

 Bellagio publicists
wish to be able to
guarantee the
amount of alcohol in
a mixed drink. What
amount of alcohol
will the publicists
guarantee is in a
mixed drink if they
wish to replace
drinks less than 2%
of the time?

=NORM.INV(0.02,1.5,0.1)=1.2946
=NORM.DIST(x, , , 1)
What is the
probability that a
drink at the
Bellagio will have
no more than 1.63
oz of distilled
spirits in it?

=NORM.DIST(1.63, 1.5, 0.1, 1) = 0.9032

=NORM.INV(, , )
Thirty-five
percent of drinks
at the Bellagio
will have no
more than how
many ounces of
distilled spirits in
them?

=NORM.INV(0.35, 1.5, 0.1) = 1.46

What about right tailed
areas?
We do the same as we did with
the binomial, but we have
another command to think
about.
What is the
probability
that a drink at
the Bellagio
will have at
least 1.48
ounces of
distilled spirits
in it?

=1-NORM.DIST(1.48, 1.5, 0.1, 1) = 0.5793

 Atleast how
many ounces
of distilled
spirits will the
strongest 15%
of drinks at
the Bellagio
have?

=NORM.INV(1-0.15, 1.5, 0.1) = 1.604