E370

10/25/2014
Inferential Methods:
Confidence Interval
Estimation
Week 10 Pt 2
 TheCherry Farmer's Co-op on the peninsula
in Grand Traverse Bay in Michigan is
responsible for packing and shipping the
annual cherry harvest. The co-op coordinator
needs to know the average diameter of the
cherries at harvest so that appropriate
packing boxes can be ready for the different
cherry varieties. A random sample of 100
Bing cherries was drawn and measured. The
mean of the sample was 1.2 inches. The
standard deviation of Bing cherries is
believed to be 0.1 inches. Calculate a 99%
confidence interval for the population mean
diameter of Bing cherries.

An application
What we know:
n=100

What we want: An estimate of

mean Bing cherry diameter at a
level of confidence of 99%.
Point Estimate
1.2 inches
Margin of error, e

=NORM.S.INV(0.995)= 2.576

Calculations
Wehave 99% confidence that the
mean diameter of Bing cherries is
between 1.17 and 1.23 inches.
State the level of confidence.
Specify the parameter you are
estimating.
State the interval.
You should always know the sample
size that was used in the estimate.

Required Components
for an interpretation
 In Denver, Colorado, there was a proposal to
establish an Extraterrestrial Affairs
Commission to track space aliens. "We hope
to get the message out that technology from
extraterrestrial origins has been withheld,
and that it can cure cancer," says Jeff
Peckman, the director of the ballot initiative.
Mr. Peckman paid for his own polling. He
questioned a random sample of 199 of the
3974 signatures he obtained to get the
initiative on the ballot. Of those questioned,
102 were in favor of the initiative. Calculate
a 90% confidence interval for the proportion
of Denver residents in favor of this proposal.

Extraterrestrial Affairs in Denver

What

we know:
n=199

What we want: An estimate of the

proportion of Denver residents in favor of
establishing an Extraterrestrial Affairs
Commission at a level of confidence of 90%.
Alpha?
= 0.10
Point Estimate

The Random Variable?

Margin of error, e

What we know


=NORM.S.INV(0.95)= 1.645

The 90% confidence interval:

0.5126 0.0582

OR
[0.4544, 0.5708]

Calculations
 Mr.Peckman is 90% confident that the
proportion of all Denver residents in favor of
the establishment of an Extraterrestrial
Affairs Commission is 51% plus or minus 6%.

OR

Mr.Peckman is 90% confident that the

proportion of all Denver residents in favor of
the establishment of an Extraterrestrial
Affairs Commission is between 45% and
57%.

Interpret this interval.

Take a look at this set of 100 90%
confidence intervals, calculated
assuming that the true proportion
of support for Mr. Peckams
proposal is 51%.
What do you think it means to be
90% confident?
Lets take a look at the picture.

What does it mean

to be confident?
Mr. Peckmans prognostication was
unsound. The actual proportion of
Denver residents in favor of his
initiative was 15%.
Lets calculate a 90% confidence
interval using the actual
percentage and compare the two
intervals.
The center of the interval changes and
so does the standard error of the
proportion.

Unfortunately,
Dr.

Gupta of CNN's "Paging Dr. Gupta"

reported that a poll of 49 American adults
reported 48% exceeding the recommended
dose of over-the-counter (non-prescription)
drugs. Calculate a 95% confidence interval for
the proportion of American adults who
exceed the recommended dose of over-the-
counter (non-prescription) drugs.
What is the random variable?

What is e?

Or

Another application