aited by the EU-LAC Founcation: fou Social Protests and Democratic Responsiveness: Assessing Realities in Latin America and the Caribbean and the European UnionTABLE OF CONTENTS Soci Protests an amratie Besponvivenen: Assocsing Reais in Latin America and the Carbean and the European Union 4 Democratic Practices in Ant-Austeity Movernents wn From Forum to Campy, from Latin America to Europe Donate deta Porta 2 Resource Extraction, Political Fragmentation and nn Subnational Protest in Peru Moist Arce 3 Youth Participation in Social Mobilisation, Sabine Kurtenbach 4 Social Media in the Mobilisation of Anti-Austerty Protest. camo Cristancno 5 Grievances and Connectivity in Brat’ Protest on “Antonio Sampaio 6 Contentious State-Society Interactions over New Gas Projects: Lessons trom Botivla = 3 35 10s a7 ‘Alt Schiling-Vacaflor and Annegret Kuhn 7 Democratic Responsiveness in the Stttgert21 Proceso Arbitration, Referendum and a Dialogue Torsten Feat 8 The Mexican Movement AYO#0¥182 = Yanina welp us 163Meiots Arce oat, the buk of the enstng resource curse Iterature empha the pervaie and negate outcomes that ae typlealy anocited with a countn/s abundance of natural resources, sath es poor governance, ow levels of econeic dovelopent, ev wa, 4nd dictatorship (2.9, Kar 1897; Ross 1998; Colle anc Hoefer 2008, 2005 Dunring, £2005; Fearon 2005; Humphreys 2008, These stoi have ls prileged eross-natora omparizons, using aggregate rational dat that, more ten tar rot, conceal slgiesn ‘vlation wan counts. in contrast, acholry work onthe local Impact of resource eats relatvaly uncommon. Specifically, dos the value of county's resource wth Increase protests? o, why then, do apparent snr resource-bundent suoatona uns win the same nstona deer rege have diferent eels of contention? Departing from the conventional wisdom that emphasizes economic condtons 6s central to explain protests over natal resource extraction a, Spork and Webber 2007, Aelano Yenguas 201), | caw attention to the sane of suonational pata ‘ondton, namely th lctora ane partisan dynamis that make subnational us more ‘Protest prone As the social moverent terete renin us (¢,Tarow 199; Ty and eo th omnamesenters fmt chhemenassesam mpainseeanstne {namics of protest moverens. Thinking about resource extraction for tanes, one ‘oud easy argue that he economic hear of South American genera and Pena in arcu is essntay a istry of mining. Yor grievances related to resource extraction consistent outnumber outbreaks against mining, and one does nt always eee potest ‘movements emerge to chalonge them. In contrat, a focus on elector and partisan ‘@maros crews attention othe plc context or ernment in wich protects emery, nd provides beter approach to explore the variation of protert across geooraphy and Serre re eeeerremey ea resog re ecto"ime. Tas pots conctions help explain why smi resureebundant subnational nts within the sare court experience fen ves of contro. The paper probes these questions forthe cata of Par which praides an ia! ‘evrcnmert to enayse the relationship among resource weet, partisar dyramics and rots, Fit the county s geological leased wth an abundance of nurs resources, ‘82h as gold sve, and copper; and has the highest concantation of he word's op ining companies inthe Latin Amstioa region. The county has also experienced an ‘pressive economic bonanza du orig cormodty pices snd the gowing Chinese demand for raw mater. Second, stetingn 2002 the country embarked an important ‘pocess of pots decentvalzaton The elacton of elon! Goverenis across Penis 25 regions (ain to sats other counties) sought o advance the sunposed vives © decentralization, which are often advocated by Intemational dono, democatle ‘hoor, anc lca acts. The section of regionl goerants, as @aned blow, was meant o morove resource goverance. Thi, an nay, Peas egons, which 10 very sia to each oar when it comes tothe abundance of naa reacurces, ‘perience dtlerent lees of protet. To elaborate, he protest movemerts over natal !msourceexvacon share smears confit overland and wate, cofes over ‘he edaroton of resus woah, networks of actors in oppostion to mining (8. local vilage atecte by extraction envronmental NGOs, et), and networks of actors ‘support of extraction (eq the exact Indu, atonal overert, ty the ‘ymamics ofthese moverects throughout the county hasbeen very sei, “Te contoutons of thls paper are twotol, Theoretical | advance an ateratve trmework to explain the Ink between resource weath and peotet acy. To cate, ‘he rxource curse iteature remains the most infuentlparedgm to understand the lationship betwoen resource woah and several important outcomes, such a8 poor soveranee, low levee of economic development, ci war, and dicktrship (29. ar 1967; Ross 1998; Color and Hooter 2002, 2005; During 206; Faron 2005 Humphrys 2005. Yet the cor arguments ofthe source curse Mera as rales ‘to civ eociy In pariculr, a not wal-auited to explain the social ure that the evasion of natural resources gaecates. To elaborate, the resource crs lteretre ‘opts that eourea wealth Ibs the growth of cl socket, and kes the rise cf contenious activ les Maly, a razurce weath slows goverment to rliva social pressures trough a mix of ow taxes and patronage epencing (eg. Ket 1957; Norison 200%; Ross 200 Sih 2004). Resource wealth also prevents the typos of ‘socal and outual changes tat facitate politcal accourtablly end denceratzaton, ‘uch as rising education loves and cccunationelspecatzaton, Accordrpy, an act, ‘000 19 mabllzaton evil socey should not be exDected, much ass soin the content ‘rexoute abundance or comedy pice Boom. In contrast, my kamenork suagestshow reouce weath encourages the emergence of brows calions with verse sete of naw actors In responee to resource extraction. This tamewerk aso diterentiates ‘ho various types of roasts surouning resource extraction (Ace 2014). Epica, | provide a cros-cubnatonaltire-saris aralyls onthe rlatonshio amang resource Wweath, partsan dynamics, and pote! sctvy aorets Pee 26 regions forthe 1006- 2010 prod. This subnatioral comparative analysts provides rater serv o wihin- ration heteregenely and comedy, which i largely concealed insti whlch rly upon aggrogate national data. n 0 dora, thelps to fermulte beter cautl interes ‘on he factors tat shape cortantbus activ local anc overtime. My empl! resus ‘show that th latonship betwen protest anc sutnaionelpoltel conditions is loser ‘han that between protest and ritual resource rors, which can be seen as a useful Inleatorofasouce-besed econumie condtions. ‘begin by outing the expansion of esource extraction h Pes folowing the economic ‘Rowalzation policies ofthe 1900s 2000s, anda structural importance tothe county's ‘economy a8 @ whole, and for sutratenal goversments especialy. Second, | present a framework to dstngush the ditt types of protet tet ae astocated with resource \wenth,expihing how resource eration crests nents for protest acy, Thi ‘exanthe sbational poFical condition thet inuence scital responses to resource ‘action, spcialy the undoing lve of potal rapmentation across the newly ‘eat eglonal gover. Thefouth sation of his papa presnts ha rast ofthe ‘empirical anys, owing how gional pole and resource westh shape subnationl proteet activ, Te conchalon ghlghts a rumber of contbations that can be crawn ‘fom his tu. ‘Resource Extraction in Contemporary Peru Resource ertracton isnot new to Pau. Largescalo mining doveloed Inthe conta Fighlands of fe coun, ivohing the regions of Huercavl, Juris, Pesce, and the nother provinces ofthe rgion of Lima. Inthe early 1000, th apealons of he Caro «4a Pasco Corporation (OPC). an Amarcan mining compar, expanded quick, nd CPC became "the only company in Per to engage inthe large-scale extraction, processing rd commarcialzation of mioeral ores and mata" (Kut are Vologt 1979: 45). CPC bought concessions and smaters rom competing ming comperlsin the ere and @ ‘trod tne connecting lofts plans to one another ant the coast The ea history cf large-scale exraction alo associated wih the development of a sbour movement ‘of mining workers a8 CPC became the largest private employer in Pau. For example, tha miners confederation kaown as the National Feceraion of Mews, Metauries ”ond Stesworhers of Peru (PYTHONS) wace8 nS Ong fo the operations of CPC in ‘the conta highands (Pajuso 2010. The operations of CPC, however, ended wth the ‘efi mary regime of Gera Juan Velasco Alverado (1968-78), which nonce’ Is holdings under the stat-cwned company known as Cantromin Peri Te mit also ‘xpropriates a of CPC's hacenca (stat), which coverod a totl of 247,000 hectares and inluded 87284 sheep, 2,651 heads of cate, and 996 horses (Kat and Vetings 1978: 89. Lage hacledas tke CPC's pushed peasants of hirland. reting a surpis of bores to work nthe mines ln he 1990s, the government of Abate Fujmor (1090-2000) reversed this pata of stato onnersip of o-caed “sata Indus,” and privaizd Canromin Per a wot 128 uncrads of cter state-owned enters (Arce 2005, Weekaned by te economic tis and pltcalvlone of tha 1080, the FNTMNGP rested Fumo privatization 0a bbe unsuccestty, mn congruence wih he aval of market rafome, Fulmr ade foreign investment in mining a vary atractive duty. Mining cms by extractne ‘companies skyrocketed om two millon to Meer milion hectares ching the 19808, and {to twenty mon inthe late 2000, Slay, investment In mining rose from US $420 illon in he 1880s are ary 10608 to a record ive of US $2.76 btn in 2008 (MEM 2004, 2010, Moreover, thirteen out of twenty-one member cormpanes of he rtrnatena {Counc on Mining and Meals (CMM, the associ of the works lgest mining companies, curently operte in Pou, This tha nghast concentration of lage mining ‘companies in the Latin American region (Ox, 2008). Thus, the Increasing ecenomlc Importance of resource erection, specialy mining, rts on Fumes economic beatin program, Byte end of the 2000s, Pr occupied leading postonin he global production of god (th, svr fre, copper thi lead fourth) tn hi and ze inthe same period ‘227s Latin America, Per was fst nthe production of gold lad, sive, elt, th and zn, ae second Inthe production af bier, copper and molybdenum (umn 2000) Ming fa bw ts ra civer ofthe cOUNEY's MEressve grown Gunny te 20008, ands eflecis onthe econemy’ multiplied at consaquance ef a commodity ice boom also dung the same period. The pie of gol, for nstanoe, nessa fn Us $244 inte ary 18605 to US $1,225 nto iate 20008 oe oy ound nthe sare ered, ho pce of sliver rae tom US $4 to US $20 (per roy ounce), and the pice of copper increased fom US $1.09 to US $3.42 (par pound) (MEM 2010. In acon to sng commodty pce, the aggressive Chinese demand for aw mater has sso controutd to tis economic bonanza, n recent years, Cina has surpassed the United ‘States asthe main destination of Pon's exports, These exports ince copper rn, ze, ‘nc fal (BCRP 2012,“The corral goverment accred signiicnt revenues fom exractve Indus, & Potion of which Is devcve tothe relens whare mining i leeatad. The devolution of rrineal ers (also krown as canon mina In Pru) changed considerably in he years leacng up to, nd iredatelytolowing, 2002, the year ofthe decantation inate, “dona, 20% a he prof axes pal mining compari tothe atonal goverment ‘were vanstored to subnational goverment Howevar, curing ho late 1990s and ea 2000s, th amu of minal nts arsfere tothe regions had become mor ned because these taxes, though legally prescrbed, were not sty enforced. Following the decentralization ntave, wich calla fo the elections frglonl governments 0 represent each of Peru's 26 twenty-four departments and the corettutonal province ‘of Calle, new lgsston was put n place to support the newly created subnational governments. Spectealy. verve warsers tom prft taxes pad by mining companies Increased to 50%, Thee ranstes became tre major source of investment for autnatoal {governments short, the creaton of glonl goverment retad centigl forces for ‘the rpid devon of reenuosto mining region. The sequence of compte regional ‘slectons (2002, 2008, end 200) futher expanded the oles athey of regional ‘gorernmerts, and, as a resut,slaced constants on excutve powers at the national evel, Consequently, Lats lng-starcing,corraized contl ofthe regions began to ‘rode. ‘Demanding Rights and Services Protests over natural resource extraction are the most conmnen type of mbiatons taking place In the county (Wee 2008. These proeets provide an Ideal venue to Understand the new cumstances that have aisn a @ consequence ofthe expansion of he extractve economy for “new mining” as other authors have caled If. Accoreing {to Bebbington (2008: 8, hese changes Incude “tho sale and pac of expansion he ‘inane flows involved, the domicies and governance of the compares and nance ‘hows investing in etacion [ae] he rtracton betwoon exracton end neste.” Under new mining” technological condons have reduced the noed fr unl labour, and labour dlspitos between mining compares and workers have bacome le vibe, Instead, “new mining" has an Ineeasad need for wate, ene, land and landscape, "New open pit ana heap lashing techriques dora fr grester access to each of ess resources, These technooglal condtons imply thatthe score involad ih protests legen the extract of naira resoures aro lrg the rural and urban populations etod by entraction. And th clans of retest tan include lan, water quantity and _uaty landscape, andthe protectin ofthe environment athe ethoods Bebbington s40 2009) Seen inthis lt new mining” lows ust understanc the types ofcoslens ht ‘aggrieved groupe have forged in peeiton to extraction, eluding the rw actors that have emerged to chatenge the extractive economy. These coalitions of cut across ‘lasses, the urban and nal dvi, a wells ervionmantal and nations courses, (@rc0 20140), Howeves, nota ofthe protsts agalt “raw mining” des wi the savers impact of ‘ining on vetnoods andthe envrcrment. The conenedty pice boom alice to eater has yelded remarkable pros for exvactve incustes, and axes collected fo mining have become the most portant intrgevermentltransfrnked othe extraction ot ‘natural resouroes. Thess ntrgovernmental transfers have also encouraged sizeable ‘umber of mobztions over thelr dstbuton and use across the diferent ters of goverment~oca.protinea rgional and rational (velano Yanguae 2910), Windiat Profs ftom extractive atts have also encouraged a revision of peu tx and ‘oyaty agreements betwan natonal overments and ming corporations. Here | advance a famenork to diferente the dversiy of mobizatone sureundng resource extraction. |arue thet some of these moblzstons ae cven by ‘drrands for "ight," which are encouraged by the edvers impeet of mining on Ivelhzede andthe ‘nvonments and other nitions are ven by “demands fr serene” whch area ss voneequence of ceputes over ne GstoUton and Use ot evanuee generated rom resource extraction * Bah types of rebizatens sygget how the extacton of natural resources rakes contrtious actly likely, lb or ferent restos. ‘The Bad News’ of Resource Extraction: Demands for Rights Envronmentel concerns in defence of he water suppiy or the protection of agra lands empty the moblizatons over demand or hts, Mos of hess potesis spy ‘oppose mining. In some case, protostrs concerned about the envicnment alm to reventthe mining acts from geting of the ground, inthe cape of Tamboorande Inthe Pura region. ther cases, environmental activist ek to hl the expansion of ‘tracy sting mining activites, a n Mount Quah inte Cajamaee region In ir, (Canacian-based Manhattan Minerals Corporation (MC) sought to construct an open it mine forthe extraction of gold near the San Lorenzo Vey and Tambogrande. The Project eaed forthe retocation of thousands of residents as wl asthe rerouting othe ‘saris of he Pura Fiver, The mobieations agent MMC extended over parod otmost ve years, darting in 198 trough 2008 nCaanarca, US-based Newmont ‘Yanacocha mine became the lagost gold producer in Latn Ametce, and one ofthe largest folgn investment operatonsin Pe. The Yandcocha mine bognn to extract gS Inthe cary 1900s. Several year at, buoyed by high pics, I wought to expand ts operations to the sass, such as Mount Oullthb2008 and Cong in 2012. Local communities often feel marginalized or exckded trom ‘te decision making process regarding natural resource extacton. This has slo triggered a number of imponant protests emancing canstaon rights on development projects that act incigonoes peopl. The 2008-09 mobizaton in oppeston te opening the Amazon up {or devalopmant nthe province of Bagua fz an example of potese over demande for ‘ght: inthis particule case, consutton rights. To U:S.-Peru fee trade agrooment ‘signed in 2006 enccuaged the expansion ofthe extractive ona, ann the case of he ‘Amazon region, the agree sought t facta logging and the commercialzation of ‘rcigencus communal inde, Mobilzaton inching consultation hts often incorporate an envrormortalstlecourse to turer ress the exltaton of natal resources. "The'Good News! of Resource Extraction: Demands for Services, Poteet over demands for services revolve areund caputes over how weath fom ‘traction stud. These protests are not necessary opposed to mining and ote o not Involve mining companis crecty. Rather these motions entangle lacs) populations and pobtical atheros representing te eer ties of government whore ‘me natwatresouce is earacod. These mebzatons wa common In reas where ming maybe the only activity tat Is econricaly viable and does rot compete with other ‘ctv, such a8 sgrcutre. Regional sr local governments thos Sook to integrate ‘envactve activities aeacy pace withthe develonmento th losis in which mining Ease cae SEE i PE Be EP ‘The allocation of revenues fom extraction aos fret levels of govertrant has changed over tne. AS several studies have shown, the percelved Inequties Inthe {Seton of venue among presidents of ional goverment, mayor of provincial ‘muricpalies, and mayors of sviet mnipalties have tiggered a sizable nunber of protests. In terms ofthe use of revenues, te dsputes have to do with the efile management of source incomes, whare ecient management ales to bot is proper so and tha capacty of local governments to dlver improvements whore rasouce ‘eration takes pace, Taso reveruts ary often spent in the dlivry of services or bfrastucure projects such as roa, schools and heath centres.ln sum, not all the mobilizations against resource extraction ar coated equa. On the one hand, the protests over denande for servees acknowledge the “good news of ‘exractonand seek amore equtabl dstrbuton of th revenue gaeratod tor mining. “These mobilizations do not oppoee extraction but rather seek mater Improvements, such asa better provision of sell services, higher wages for mine workers, and 5 on. The cams of protesters er vory specie and negotiable. These mobilizations ‘yplety rutin pattem of nor stop protest whereby shoved potest lead to smal concsecone whic Iatr courage othr enor ved protete and other concnsion, ‘40 on, Protest thus become a bargain toot aceve poli objecwes or poly ‘demands. On the other and, the roasts ver demands fright flow the "bad news” ‘of extraction, and seok to protect the water supply ad nds fom the percaved threats ‘hat ae sseocated wit mining, These mobilzatone oppose extraction and seek 1 stop 1. Compared to protests over comands fr sarvces, hase mobilizations ase bosder ‘thd ofthe pares compatingn each elena! election are now pari (Sat 2011) ‘Second, several autora have observed the connstion between partes reprasntng {he rational goverment focated nthe coastal capt of Lina) and partes representing regional governments (Vergara 2071, This daconnaction, agen, recs the Micy and weakness ofthe Parvin party sytem. Whi in ofc, for Instance, Tledos Pat Pose, controled ony one regional goverrent (Cleo), aed Garcia's APRA controled ‘wo regional overmants (La Lberted end Plu). Aces the thee regional eectons of 2002, 2006, and 2010, APRA i ho only natorabiol party tat has ad an important presence across regional governments, butte party gna were ot last. During the fret agonal ection of 2002, APRA won 12 regions (or 4886 o al agons). Yet APPA 4s‘ony contrled2 wo reglons ater tha 2006 elation, and only 1 on ein forthe 2010 ‘loctions. The buk of elon! governments ae controled by alarg numberof mate polis who re ony loosely conected to ay party ogaizaton a al, Hence, these ares are beter described as paronaitc elector! vetcls (Levitsky 2019), ‘Th, ane nay, across the regional lections of 2002, 2008, and 2010, regional pati have been ale to winasutnationalofice wth very low percentages ofthe popu vets To ‘aborts, nts pros subnational pares ave securcan ote wih an average of 20% ‘ofthe regional vote, and in some cases, they have done so with slow as 18% of he vote (20 table). nresponse to the rage bases o upper for relonel goverment, steting ith ne rglonal lactis of 201, the cantl eoverment stated a pluraty of 20310 win oe, which would thon oft a runt election between the top two contender ‘the 2010 reglonal action cele, here ware 10 rnc lotions nationwide, representing 40% of athe regions. The low bases electoral unport or regional pares suggest tht ‘ese reglons parties donot ned tomebiiz supper across all goups of socey oF ske toed appeals to tor consttunts. These pats instaed “raven incentive to focus {hal stron on smaller segments of he voting population” (Chobe and Noord 2004: 171). Moreover rater han providing pub goods, these parte are more By to stro cub or private goo oth groups they are courting (Chir and Noord 2008, Along these ines, Levis (2018: 900) argues thatthe Tuc of rgional parties ‘lows poticans to pursue thelr “naked amos” rter than some longor-trm publ 900d. Because these policians qu lump trom one party tothe net, ter abtons| simply go unchecked by the pry organizations that sponsored them. ‘To sum up the decertralaation process provided now outs fr poi representation at tho subrational level, and these new outs were meant to prove clon about ‘source governance. However amateur plane, lected with ale phaitie nce ‘tes tonstion!- ove partes, mske up te buk orginal goverment. Consequently the resence of weak) covoiopedrogional partes damaged mechanisms of accountabity and responsiveness that a often asociato wih decentratzaton, Tus protest actiy became the prefered mecha to influence those who govern parca na context ‘ofan econom boom. A Sulbmational Comparative Analysis ‘subnational protests in Pru, These are resource-rch regione andthe governmenctirs fe overtowing win mineral ens. Thee rents, aga, oignte fom the extretion ofrar escuroes. nthe sample scribed below, erinstance thereon of Tao the second-ares recipient of mineral ens Inthe county (1.01 Sales er cap), otowed bythe region of Anca (547 sole per expt, the egon of Cusco (93 sola pa cpt, nd the region of Pasco (498 soles por oapta}* et despa this sift fs rats to ‘te cetrouton of mineral rts, and acre the sarmple perio, the regions of Anesth (25,7 protests) and Cusco (42.7 pots) have ore potest than the sample mean (17.6 ‘res and also mor protets hat the gions of Then (14.7 protest) and Pasco 8.7 rotets* This variation suggests that there we eter factors beyond natal resource rons hat shape the neldence of mobitzatons local and overtime. These other fects rat poiticalconsons ad are associated wth the subrationa lector and pariean ‘yams desrbed sare. 'm tn empirical aay, tho dependent variable PROTEST ie the annual numberof rotets taken trom the Base de Protests Sccaee cl Po, an le sed on the pit ‘mada (oe, 20148), Those data measure the vation of protest ctvy across P's 25 ‘wont fve regions and acess tm n each region’ Inthe eae, the region of Cusco has the highest level of protests 42.7 potst ana the elon of Mace. Dos has the lowest evel of protest (4.4 protests, The unt of anal the elon yar. My main expanatoy varisbles of intrest ar MINERAL RENT and POLITICAL FRAGMENTATION. Ft, MINERAL RENT Is tho enuel canon minaro wanes pee capt et current values. The canon mina represents the devolution of mineral revenues colectd bythe central goverment to sutnstionsl governments, This variebe dey measures the value of «raion googie! endowment, which f determing by the quantity and qual of minerals that are avatabe, es wl a the investment made ‘extracting hese ines at ary ven ne Inthe arp, the messure ranges ram ah of 1.277 Perwian soles forthe rglon of Moquegus o& low oles than 1 Peruvian sl {or the region of Lambayeque. Tis variable sores suse Iceatr of he rescue bused threats (demands for gts) nd te resource-based opportunites (mands for _senvce) that are associated with the extraction of natural resources. MINERAL RENT, ‘hero, should be postvelycorlted with prota ‘Second, POLITICAL FRAGMENTATION is the efectve number of poltcal paras carpeting in the ginal elctions of 2002, 2008, and 2010 using the Laakso anc 4s46 “Taagopor's (1979) formula. Because not al regional pats are crated equa the ‘measure weights each eon party by the numberof vote i reales, preventing the count rom being intated by very smal replona partes. POLITICAL FRAGMENTATION. Imps the presence of large numberof regional pats that are ected with rag rates serves aan Indeator of the weakness and ty ofthe Peruvian regional arty system Inthe spl, the region of. nn asthe highest va of agmantation (5 Paes), and tha rion of La Libertad has the lowes evo ragmentaton (3.9 partes). | ner tat righer levels of POUTICAL FRAGMENTATION inpalthe machanlome of sccourtablty and responsiveness that ar typically associated with decetazato, in ‘deer and resource governance, parler. Thereore, POLITICAL FRAGMENTATION shouldbe postveycorlted with protest, |My conto varabies are GOP MINING, POVERTY, and POPULATION (.06). GOP MINING. |s the share of mining production In ration tothe total GOP ofthe gon at constant 1984 prices. This variable is used as a pron forthe lve of ining activin agen ae, “Tha vaiable POVERTY isthe percentage of the regional population below the poverty Ew Intems of income measured agains a region-specific variable damarcaion of poverty Is usec as proxy forthe eoonomie grievances that se sai Yo ncrease protest acy, “The vaabe POPULATION (L0G) seks to contol forthe possibly thet more populated regions woud expafance higher levels of mobiaton compared ts less poputod regions. lof the variables in the analysis re measured annually foreach region. To contre forthe temporal dependence of protest activity, ictse the lagged dependent ‘vardble PROTEST, ,. Tow (198), among other, argues that protctfollw a eyetcal ater n wich waves of protet erase rapidly i some periods, and then recede in tha same manner in oer parods. | proceed by estimating an uncondtons faac-ticts negative binonial event-count ‘model, Even-count models use asim koShood etimation to asexs he robabiy of event occurences. As evant counts always tke on nonnegative ineger Vales, he Sstiowon of events is skewed and dsceta, produc eors that we ot norma ‘dstbtec or homoskedestc (Long 1997) In adton, overcepersion and goodness ‘oF tots incicated that a negative binomial modal Is the best method of estmaton ‘or my data. 1 estimate an uncontional fked-tets version ofthe nogatve binomi model In order to acount for uncbeerved (or undbeerabe) unit heteogenaty nthe eta. Simply pu, | need to contol fr al ofthe elosyrcatic factors that ry make 2 paticlar region more or less potest prone. | accomplish this by keluding «set of ‘gional dummy variables nthe repression madel—one for each region nthe sae, ‘minus one. Because | am concerned about the nonindependence f observations witin regions over tine, | present te mods below wih robust standard eros elstres by region.Exapiricat Results ‘Te anes is vided into two sation Theft part examine the ralationship between resource woatand protest sing the eres ata aelaie nvohng minralrots, hich | 1986, As note wae, resource extraction by large mining companies sures wih ‘he economic beralzation poles of he 1000s und Fagor, The second pat of he nays bls on hese resus, anéexarines th efcts of eionl polis on protest by taking into account thundering level f pita ragmentationseroe te regional letons of 2002, 2006, and 2010. “Tobl 2 prosents the rsutsof ho fret part ofthe aul. To beter capture the fects of resouree weath on protests local and over tina, Table 2 sts tho data efor jodel 1) and after the decotalzaton process of 2002 (model 2. As reported In dl the arable MINERAL RENT nas no etlct on potest pio: to Toledo decentvalzaton. In conan node 2 the varable MINERAL RENT has apostve and statistical igniicart ‘tect onthe lve ot subnational protest® The modalsn Table 2 present tnmed results, controling ony forthe log of populton anc the lggtd dependent vareble PROTEST, ‘These tnmed resus hel to confi tat the fect of rource wealth on protest ae ot van by the ncusion of contel vases. (259e Zoo (2002-20101 es 0009 0002" tees ‘tooo Poouaon os) as a ee -o0gsene- 0007 ot ‘overs ‘eon “fegon dunmies ve ve Mes po ~ ane 2450" ese) aay og auncod om 7855 ri ons oss “Raa aan nt mg my tn ”‘The comparison of he rents belo ard alter Toledo's decentralization rave euggats ‘hat something changed wit the alo epoal goverment staring n 2002. For the ero 1886-2001, fact, touce wath sot statstoaly cored wth protest. tat time, escuce weath was otal. cortrled, andthe sbsenc ct plc! organzations at he subnational lvl (a. gor govererts) id not provide an out to arte Possible demands for fghtsorsaroes ovr the extraction of natal reouoes. For the atiod 20022010, contra, the stata! resus suggest ht resource wet creased ‘he netence of pote Arno Yangus 2010: 6) surmarzad is association at “more ‘money more conf" thovpis nays ony focused on te 2005-08 pid when miner ‘commoary noes were arocy onthe nee Faradoneay, 5 tre etee creeuts ORCL, ‘halrtroducton ct egoral goverment didnot save to Improve rescuce governance, “Table incorporates the ects of eon polis by examining the underhing leva ot otic ragmentatin rss he regional actions of 200, 2008 and 2010. As shown {hstable th variable POLTICAL FRAGMENTATION clas postvely wth the eve ot subnational potest in a statistical sgrifcant tation. The resus in the immed model “4 were robust othe exchson of reponal dummy variables (s66 model 3). The eects of POLTICAL FRAGMENTATION also remain postive and statisicaly ieicant with the elu of he varie MINERAL RENT (del), wel a the conto variables POVERTY and GOP MINING (rode 6) Pott 0558" aosc0% oes asain Irogmentsion fG0sse (O00) GaN) (O0N80) ry Elicia! (Gocon (ooo) sore Tee ee aed aco Sagnerne Spey Mente pane was puaionTea) seen too) we) soe) grou tpm 20018 aoe ©0018 means {Boom footy — Om) Sec sy” aes” eae, « on 27” ozs 089‘As previously iscusod, the docartakzation process advanced new ous fer poll representation at he subrticna vel, and tase new ous, by tuo of th proxnty to oca condos, shoul, npr, bost th conection batwoen publ proarences ‘2 goverment cutpu. These new outs could sto be seen a8 pons of access 10 ‘shape poy. utingessitve strategies fr groups to werk through he established poteal nttutons. However amateur policians, elected with fragile plait and fw tes to natlona evel partes, make up the Buk of reploral governments. The paris atthe regioral ovo ao ao beter described as sercnaltic electra vehicle that aly nde fom ‘ne elation to the next. Consecuenty, the weakness and fit of region pares produced @ power vacuum and ercouraned the use of protest activity to Infuonce ‘hose who held poles! offce, Trese weak partes thus impaled the mechanisms of sccountablity and respensvenss that are often associated with decentralzton. A 5, wile te epic resus s.ggos tat resource wealth and regions poltcs sect the level of subnational protest, be tect of resource woah is visble ony afer 2002, the year when the decentraatio ite took pace, Fr this reson, | have argued thatthe relationship between protest and subratiena pelticl contions is closer than batwean hat of protest and mineral rns, which again canbe seen a aust ncatr cof resource-based teats o oppure? “To gve more substantive iterpretsions wound the quantile of nee, now provide “te efact of MINERAL RENT and POUTICAL FRAGMENTATION using a statistics snulaton, Based on King ets 2000), Table presents the pected event counts of PROTEST wih stattical uncertaty using Mode 6 Table) The prdicted event counts “of PROTEST are computed forthe iferertavelsof MINERAL RENT and POLITICAL FRAGMENTATION flow, mean, er hgh basa on the minimum, moan, and maximum ‘values in the same, Al he estates ae statically sigeteant atthe conventions lov Fit, the rected number for PROTEST almost triples, ftom 1620 at the ow Jovel of MINERAL RENT to 46.65 at tho righ love of MINERAL RENT, Second, the _Bredictod number fr PAOTEST aioetdoublos, For 12.08 at i low lvelaf POLITICAL [FRAGMENTATION to 2.48 tthe high lve of POLITICAL FRAGMENTATION, 7S ciao ep tp Re my ne 0_——rotat ctv Folowing tho soca mover orare-(-Tarow- 1008 Fly at 30 ‘ragmentation ‘it80) toss ao8 eee 1620 ust 65 ay ry cr fetes tepnenason nmr eae mart un mar amas ‘toni Tremnmar ses nsetlew veo rato ndcse ghee sand Sones presen Returing othe previous example, th regions of Teena, Ancash, Cusco, ene Pasco are ory ric a8 consequence of he ition of mineral res, et te lave of protests scree thee regions varies conedoaby Asi uns ou, th lve of pla! ragmenton in Ancesh (9 parts) end Cusco (5 pats) higher than the sample mean (5.25 _ariae ane also higher compared to tho olan of Taona (8 partis) nd Pasco 4.0 ares Thus th regions of Ancash (25.7 protests and Cusco (27 protest have roe prtees than the sample mean of 17, and the rgiona of Teena (14.7 protests) and Pasco (8.7 protests). The fous on electoral and pariean dynamics (namely, politcal ‘ragmentaion) helps to exoleh wy apparent ilar rescurce-abundant eons within Peru experince dterent eves of potas. Conclusion. ‘nti pape; have arguod tat the asoclation between resource extraction a protst is [aly custo parclved economic heats camandforrght) or opportune (mands for ‘sevice. However, an approach hat solely emphasizes econeic conto, agarose ofthe type, does not provice a complete account forthe ieldence of subnational “Tow 2006), this paper trngs pola contions back into the analy of antmaket contention. At the subnational lev focuses on th aloctoal and partisan dynamics ‘hat meke reglonsl governments more protest prone. AS the anys shows, rgional polis in Peruhave gown increasingly raganted and fd and thas tected protest act, but na manner oppose to what advocates of decertazaton had antelpated. ‘The presence of week developed regina partes, rater than improung dectons over escalation of protest activity ata mechanism tolnfuence‘A coupe of exdtionalcontbtions canbe craw rm his ty. n examining the ‘alstonsip among eeource weet, elon ple, anc protest aenes Pen/e25twenty- ‘we rogions th sutnatoral comparative ansisspresertdin this paper covrect forthe ational bss ofthe existing resource curse Raratre whan sir te consequences. of resource wooth This subnational arasis lows us to close changing patton of ‘moblizaton and derobitznton win a single county allot which lps us to formulate beter causal nfreces on the factor tht shape protest styler and over ine. ‘Second, and tally he resource cue Raat remain he mos! infuential prac towards understarsing the rlatoneip between resource abundance and several Important outcomes, such a the porstonoe of dictatorships ané the matunctoning of ‘te economy. But th core arguments of th resource curse erate a relate oil society In patio; re not walheuted to explain the socil ure thatthe extraction of natural resources gonerates. To oaborate, the resouce curse Ierature suagets thatthe sbundancy of ratural resource hibits the growth of ch society, a8 resource ‘woah abows goveriments to releve soca pressures though a rik of fw tse6s and patenage spending. According, an active, prone to mobilzatior cil soclty should ‘ot be expected, uch las son the context of resource abundance ofa commodty ‘rice Boom. The ans presented hea, contrast, svpgeteheteeource abundance encourages various demands for hts and demands for services To put keen. resource abundance encourages clakm-making. Athough protests coud be sean as @ mechanism to generate responsiveness and accountabty ro tase who govern, is Is probably not wha: acetalization advocates hac in mid REFERENCES ‘Arce, M. (2008) Maret Reformin Soi: Post Criss Po ‘Authotavan Per. 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