YEAR PROD IRAR CONFERT CONPEST RAINFA UNIRAR

1980 1004.86 38.72 55.16 45 104 133.91

1981 1070.96 40.5 60.64 47 100 136.25
1982 1042.94 40.69 63.88 50 85 132.06
1983 1050.58 41.95 77.1 55 113 137.61
1984 1191.07 42.15 82.11 56 96 134.18
1985 1141.21 41.87 84.74 52 93 136.59
1986 1182.83 42.57 86.45 50 87 133.84
1987 1170.48 42.89 87.84 66.9 81 127.85
1988 1339.49 46.15 110.4 75.89 119 136.13
1989 1249.98 46.7 115.68 72 101 135.57
1990 1361.09 48.02 125.46 75 119 137.72
1991 1411.19 49.87 127.28 72.13 91 132.37
1992 1338.29 50.29 121.55 70.79 93 135.41
1993 1445.98 51.34 123.66 63.65 100 135.24
1994 1460.67 53 135.64 61.36 110 135.05
1995 1503.54 53.4 138.76 61.26 100 134.07
1996 1533.17 55.11 143.08 56.11 103 134.39
1997 1598.96 55.21 161.88 52.24 102 134.78
1998 1681.86 57.44 167.98 49.16 105 134.21
1999 1699.41 57.53 180.7 46.2 95 130.87
2000 1697.14 55.2 167.02 43.58 91 130.14
2001 1723.03 56.92 173.6 47.02 91 131.37
2002 1631.32 53.88 160.94 48.3 81 120.23
2003 1669.08 57.05 167.99 41 102 132.62
2004 1690.63 59.22 183.98 40.67 87 131.9
2005 1794.96 60.83 203.4 39.77 99 131.93
2006 1913.73 62.74 216.51 41.51 99 129.67
2007 1921.31 63.29 225.7 44.77 105 131.85
2008 1839.84 63.74 249.09 43.86 98 131.62
2009 1874.82 63.26 264.86 44.54 77 128.94
2010 1961.29 63.52 281.22 45.12 102 129.93
2011 2013.44 63.23 277.4 44.67 101 131.02
RULIT Real Loan
266.6092 21.43875
271.8786 26.10066
281.7659 30.99496
291.8664 39.50556
302.1875 48.34992
312.7319 60.852
323.5423 66.93483
334.5641 81.99545
345.7716 91.53219
357.1302 108.0226
368.6123 112.2535
380.3437 121.3717
395.7353 129.0839
410.9249 136.6276
426.3297 145.413
441.9409 163.0699
457.7759 186.6995
473.8933 204.1818
490.1483 219.7995
506.6126 250.1813
523.2814 288.8774
539.4737 346.1658
547.0048 415.0129
560.4864 531.8771
574.2887 719.2276
591.8021 1025.919
609.2813 1288.579
622.6706 1595.377
634.0033 2065.425
645.3618 2548.612
656.5139 2879.878
667.6699 3646.027
YEAR PROD IRAR CONFERT CONPEST RAINFA UNIRAR RULIT
1980 1004.86 38.72 55.16 45 104 133.91 266.6092
1981 1070.96 40.5 60.64 47 100 136.25 271.8786
1982 1042.94 40.69 63.88 50 85 132.06 281.7659
1983 1050.58 41.95 77.1 55 113 137.61 291.8664
1984 1191.07 42.15 82.11 56 96 134.18 302.1875
1985 1141.21 41.87 84.74 52 93 136.59 312.7319
1986 1182.83 42.57 86.45 50 87 133.84 323.5423
1987 1170.48 42.89 87.84 66.9 81 127.85 334.5641
1988 1339.49 46.15 110.4 75.89 119 136.13 345.7716
1989 1249.98 46.7 115.68 72 101 135.57 357.1302
1990 1361.09 48.02 125.46 75 119 137.72 368.6123
1991 1411.19 49.87 127.28 72.13 91 132.37 380.3437
1992 1338.29 50.29 121.55 70.79 93 135.41 395.7353
1993 1445.98 51.34 123.66 63.65 100 135.24 410.9249
1994 1460.67 53 135.64 61.36 110 135.05 426.3297
1995 1503.54 53.4 138.76 61.26 100 134.07 441.9409
1996 1533.17 55.11 143.08 56.11 103 134.39 457.7759
1997 1598.96 55.21 161.88 52.24 102 134.78 473.8933
1998 1681.86 57.44 167.98 49.16 105 134.21 490.1483
1999 1699.41 57.53 180.7 46.2 95 130.87 506.6126
2000 1697.14 55.2 167.02 43.58 91 130.14 523.2814
2001 1723.03 56.92 173.6 47.02 91 131.37 539.4737
2002 1631.32 53.88 160.94 48.3 81 120.23 547.0048
2003 1669.08 57.05 167.99 41 102 132.62 560.4864
2004 1690.63 59.22 183.98 40.67 87 131.9 574.2887
2005 1794.96 60.83 203.4 39.77 99 131.93 591.8021
2006 1913.73 62.74 216.51 41.51 99 129.67 609.2813
2007 1921.31 63.29 225.7 44.77 105 131.85 622.6706
2008 1839.84 63.74 249.09 43.86 98 131.62 634.0033
2009 1874.82 63.26 264.86 44.54 77 128.94 645.3618
2010 1961.29 63.52 281.22 45.12 102 129.93 656.5139
2011 2013.44 63.23 277.4 44.67 101 131.02 667.6699
Real Lone
21.43875
26.10066
30.99496
39.50556
48.34992
60.852
66.93483
81.99545
91.53219
108.0226
112.2535
121.3717
129.0839
136.6276
145.413
163.0699
186.6995
204.1818
219.7995
250.1813
288.8774
346.1658
415.0129
531.8771
719.2276
1025.919
1288.579
1595.377
2065.425
2548.612
2879.878
3646.027
Dependent Variable: PROD
Method: Least Squares
Date: 07/08/14 Time: 21:52
Sample: 1980 2011
Included observations: 32

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C 811.281 540.0791 1.502152 0.1461

CONFERT 2.043864 1.183047 1.727627 0.0969
CONPEST -0.322154 1.083712 -0.297269 0.7688
IRAR 14.01483 8.499829 1.648836 0.1122
RAINFA 1.938387 1.114049 1.739948 0.0947
REAL_LONE -0.043613 0.031387 -1.389515 0.1774
RULIT 0.633955 0.587268 1.079499 0.2911
UNIRAR -5.896258 4.57776 -1.288023 0.21

R-squared 0.983933 Mean dependent va 1506.536

Adjusted R 0.979246 S.D. dependent var 302.7169
S.E. of regr 43.60966 Akaike info criterion 10.60075
Sum square 45643.25 Schwarz criterion 10.96719
Log likelih -161.612 Hannan-Quinn criter 10.72221
F-statistic 209.9602 Durbin-Watson stat 2.035027
Prob(F-stati 0

Removing RULIT
Dependent Variable: PROD
Method: Least Squares
Date: 07/08/14 Time: 21:54
Sample: 1980 2011
Included observations: 32

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C 1142.51 445.9186 2.56215 0.0168

CONFERT 2.402666 1.139144 2.109185 0.0451
CONPEST -0.976326 0.901409 -1.083111 0.2891
IRAR 20.08988 6.390998 3.143465 0.0043
RAINFA 2.076432 1.110338 1.87009 0.0732
REAL_LONE -0.041763 0.031444 -1.328174 0.1961
UNIRAR -8.865234 3.671531 -2.414588 0.0234

R-squared 0.983153 Mean dependent va 1506.536

Adjusted R 0.979109 S.D. dependent var 302.7169
S.E. of regr 43.75361 Akaike info criterion 10.58567
Sum square 47859.46 Schwarz criterion 10.90629
Log likelih -162.3706 Hannan-Quinn criter 10.69194
F-statistic 243.1515 Durbin-Watson stat 2.004348
Prob(F-stati 0

Removing real loan

Dependent Variable: PROD
Method: Least Squares
Date: 07/08/14 Time: 21:56
Sample: 1980 2011
Included observations: 32

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C 1050.087 446.8804 2.349817 0.0267

CONFERT 1.01153 0.454409 2.226032 0.0349
CONPEST -0.580637 0.863164 -0.672684 0.5071
IRAR 27.20682 3.533904 7.6988 0
RAINFA 2.088972 1.126494 1.854402 0.0751
UNIRAR -9.761926 3.661567 -2.666051 0.013

R-squared 0.981964 Mean dependent va 1506.536

Adjusted R 0.978495 S.D. dependent var 302.7169
S.E. of regr 44.39184 Akaike info criterion 10.59135
Sum square 51236.51 Schwarz criterion 10.86617
Log likelih -163.4616 Hannan-Quinn criter 10.68245
F-statistic 283.1094 Durbin-Watson stat 1.765939
Prob(F-stati 0

Removing CONPEST
Dependent Variable: PROD
Method: Least Squares
Date: 07/08/14 Time: 21:57
Sample: 1980 2011
Included observations: 32

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C 1043.399 442.2169 2.359473 0.0258

CONFERT 1.025776 0.44929 2.283107 0.0305
IRAR 27.42995 3.482449 7.876628 0
RAINFA 1.951613 1.096542 1.779788 0.0864
UNIRAR -9.947304 3.613974 -2.752456 0.0104

R-squared 0.98165 Mean dependent va 1506.536

Adjusted R 0.978931 S.D. dependent var 302.7169
S.E. of regr 43.93945 Akaike info criterion 10.5461
Sum square 52128.23 Schwarz criterion 10.77512
Log likelih -163.7376 Hannan-Quinn criter 10.62202
F-statistic 361.0958 Durbin-Watson stat 1.778919
Prob(F-stati 0

All variables are statistically significant at 5% level except RAINFA, which is sig at 10% lev
F is significant, Adj R sr is 97%
No autocorrelation as suggested by Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test

Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test:

F-statistic 0.186264 Prob. F(1,26) 0.6696

Obs*R-squa 0.227617 Prob. Chi-Square(1) 0.6333
h is sig at 10% level.
 (Prod) = 1+2*(IRAR)+3*(CONFERT)+4*(CONPEST)+5*(LOAN) +6*(RAIN
Where
PROD = Total Production of Agriculture ( Food grain + non food grain) in MT
IRAR = Total irrigated area in million hectares
CONFERT = Total consumption of fertilizers in Lakh tonnes( Nitrogen, phosphatic and potassium)
CONPEST = Consumption of pesticides in thousand tonnes
LOAN = Real agriculture credit given to farmers in Billion of Rs. The real credit is calculated by dividing it by GDP

RAINFALL= Average rain fall as % of normal

UNIRAR = Total un-irrigated area in million hectares
RULIT= Rural male literate population in Millions