Professional Documents
Culture Documents
PoRCG 4 Full Issue 082415
PoRCG 4 Full Issue 082415
4 12 16 28
Modern grocery and Amazon Chinas president Winning in Africas Becoming a regional
the emerging-market on transformative consumer market powerhouse in food
consumer: A complicated technologies For consumer-goods retailing
courtship Doug Gurr reflects on how companies, Africa holds Croatian conglomerate
In some emerging markets, China differs from Western much promisebut also Agrokor is the top grocery
the response to modern markets and what role data many pitfalls. To succeed on player in five countries. In
grocery formats has been informatics will play in the the continent, companies this interview, the companys
tepid. Whats a modern future of retail. must learn from the failures head of retail reflects on the
grocer to do? and successes of others. rewards and challenges of
cross-border growth.
32 38 44 50
Secrets to implementation Getting the most out Smarter schedules, better Is your company a
success of your sustainability budgets: How to improve value creator or a value
What do successful program store operations destroyer?
implementers do differently Sustainability initiatives wont Through activity-based By looking at performance
from other companies? create lasting value if theyre labor scheduling and through the lens of economic
Our survey of more than poorly managed. Here are budgeting, retailers can cut profit, retailers can better
2,200 executives yields four lessons from companies store labor costs by up to understand the effectiveness
actionable answers. that are doing it right. 12 percent while improving of their business strategies.
both customer service and
employee satisfaction.
22 55 58 60
East Africa: The next hub Growth in the packaged- Contributors Regional contacts
for apparel sourcing? food industry
East African countries The drivers of revenue growth
in particular, Ethiopia and are investment in the right
Kenyahave the potential markets, M&A skills, and
to become bigger players in a pragmatic approach
garment manufacturing. But to execution.
the road ahead wont be easy.
Foreword
I hope you had a great summer and enjoyed some For example, will consumer and retail companies
time with family and friends. It seems 2015 is continue to manage IT as a cost line, with a focus
shaping up to be another busy and successful year for on efficiency, or will technology become the most
many of you. Consumer sentiment is on the upswing important competitive advantage? Will our largest
in many European countries, the US economy is markets be the same ones as today, or will the
gaining traction, and in general the outlook for majority of our sales come from regions in Brazil or
developed economies is positive. On the other China that some of us havent even heard of yet? Will
hand, Chinas growth momentum is slowing, while retailers and consumer-goods companies remain
Russia and other oil-rich countries continue to face distinct from each other, or will they become fully
challenges. Consumer-goods and retail executives integrated direct-to-consumer companies (which is
certainly have more than enough to think about already starting to happen in the apparel industry)?
when it comes to managing the day-to-day business
and the annual budget. No one can predict what will happen in 2020 or 2030.
But I believe that consumers and our industry will
Yet Im sure most of you are already thinking ahead. change more dramatically than ever; business will
What will the worldand the consumer sector in be fundamentally different. These developments can
particularlook like in 5 or 15 years? We read news be exciting and energizing, rather than a cause for
reports about Alibabas rapid rise to become one sleepless nights.
of the worlds most valuable companies, the strong
growth of e-commerce players Amazon and Zalando, Management is all about finding the right balance
Google and Teslas efforts to develop self-driving between addressing short-term business needs and
cars, and other potentially game-changing and opportunities and setting a long-term direction for
paradigm-shifting events. What are the implications the future. One of my colleagues calls it having a
for the consumer sector as a whole, for specific microscope for the daily business and a periscope
product categories, and for your company? for future direction setting. In this edition of our
2
journal, we tackle both elementsthe first half
focuses on emerging markets and the second half
on concrete business levers such as labor scheduling
and implementation excellence. One highlight of
this edition is an interview with Doug Gurr, Amazon
Chinas president, whose insights on what the future
might look like were an eye-opener for me.
Jrn Kpper
Director, Cologne
3
Keiko Morimoto
Just 20 years ago, modern grocery retail appeared tradethe family-owned grocery chains, small
poised to conquer every consumer market in the world. independent stores, and informal merchants that at
Ambitious European grocers, having blanketed their the time accounted for the vast majority of grocery
home countries with supermarkets and hypermarkets, sales in emerging markets. The prevailing expectation
began setting their sights on growth both within and was that although there would be local differences
beyond the continent. They held particularly high hopes due to cultural specificities, in every country the retail
for China, India, and other emerging markets, where landscape would eventually consist of a combination
fast-rising consumer spending seemed to presage an of modern formats: full-line supermarkets and
unprecedented demand for gleaming new stores with hypermarkets, convenience stores, and discounters.
large assortments, wide aisles, and bright lighting.
These assumptions have been proved wrong. Global
In the 1990s, the term modern grocery retail was grocery giants are struggling to grow profitably
essentially a proxy for a small group of multinational in many emerging markets. Traditional trade has
grocers including Ahold, Aldi, Auchan, Carrefour, proved remarkably resilient. And the market and
Costco, Lidl, Metro, Tesco, and Walmart. It was channel structures taking shape in individual
widely presumed that these retailers entry into any emerging economies are distinct from one another,
market would lead to the demise of the traditional following no obvious pattern.
689
295
90
Germany
80
Spain
Italy
Poland
70
China
($689 billion) Russia
60
Ecuador
50 ($8 billion)
Mexico
Brazil Thailand
40 Colombia
Turkey
30
Peru
20
Indonesia
Vietnam
10
India
($295 billion)
0
1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
On the demand side, for instance, food-shopping store owner, free home delivery, and credit
habits have turned out to be largely localized and and cash rebates if they remain loyal.
deeply entrenched. Emerging-market consumers
tend to prepare their own meals and cook more On the supply side, a big factor is the informality
than their peers in developed markets do, and of traditional trade: many small retail businesses
they are accustomed to shopping at open-air rely on unpaid labor from family and friends, pay
market stands or small neighborhood grocery no rent because they own their storefronts, and
stores that offer a familiar selection of fresh food dont pay corporate taxes. Modern retailers cite this
and household staples. They dont necessarily informality as a major challenge when competing
perceive customer service at modern retailers with local retailers. A European hypermarket chain
as superior to that of the traditional trade. found that its considerable operating-cost advantage
Customers of Indias kirana storessmall, family- from better sourcing and supply-chain processes
owned retail shops in or near residential areas was canceled out by the fact that it was paying taxes
already benefit from personal service from the while local competitors were not.
15.0
21.4 22.5 Supermarkets 6.4
1.6
1.0 2.2
0.2
3.3
3.6 Hypermarkets 1.1
10.8
Forecourts 10.4
1.7
61.9 3.3 Convenience stores 24.5
50.8
Mom-and-pop stores 0.8
world: Germany. Low-price stores can establish able to convey that message to enough consumers.
a dominant position in markets that are going Some common modern-trade practices such as high/
through rapid increases in disposable income low pricing can actually undermine a retailers value
(as was the case, of course, in postwar West message. In Peru, where bodegas and market stands
Germany). When the first modern-trade stores account for some 80 percent of grocery sales, we
to open in a market are discounters, they can set found that modern retailersdespite often having
price expectations permanently. lower full-basket prices than traditional retailers
nevertheless lag behind traditional retailers by
Other modern formats can also compete on price, but more than 15 percentage points in consumer
they have to work harder to get consumers to notice. perception of low prices.
Our research suggests most modern retailers dont
get full credit for the value they offer. This is the case 3. Obsess over productivity.
with Indonesias hypermarkets, which typically are In markets where labor costs are low, it can be difficult
cheaper places to shop than warungs but havent been to retain a relentless focus on productivity. But wages
Shenyang, before expanding nationally. Similarly, for gold in emerging markets, August 2012, mckinsey.com.
2 For more on how to develop a city-based strategy, see Udo
modernization in Indias retail sector will most likely
Kopka, Stefan Rickert, and Markus Schmid, Pinpointing the
happen through a series of players expanding in markets with the highest growth potential, Perspectives on
individual cities and states, rather than through a retail and consumer goods, Winter 2013/14, mckinsey.com.
3 For more on growth opportunities in India, see Understanding
big bang national expansion plan.3
Indias economic geography, October 2014, mckinsey.com.
James Naylor
Doug Gurr had been a global vice president I ever go to a store? The world in which
at e-commerce giant Amazon for less than consumers get their insight and information
three years when he was asked to take on a new exclusively online is very different. Social
challenge: lead the companys efforts in the fast- shopping, for instance, is an enormous
growing, hypercompetitive Chinese market. phenomenon in Asia.
In September 2014, Gurr relocated to Beijing
from his home in the United Kingdom. Today, Already, 4 of the 15 largest Internet businesses
he is in charge of an operation that employs by market cap are Chinese. The pace of
approximately 5,500 people. innovation and the quality of the mobile
experience in China in many ways far
Gurr recently spoke with McKinseys James outstrips what you see in the West; its
Naylor. Excerpts of the conversation follow. gone down a divergent path. Again, theres
a lack of physical infrastructure, so in areas
McKinsey: During your entire retail career, like banking China is leapfrogginggoing
youve championed investments in technology directly from cash to pure mobile e-banking.
and innovation. Are you finding the technology
in China to be different from what we see in Another example of leapfrogging is the use
more developed markets? of geolocation. Theres very little mapping
in China, and there are many areas with
Doug Gurr: Yes. The technology in China no street addresses, but China has solved
is phenomenal. You can see multiple ways these logistics problems with geolocation.
in which the country is leapfrogging. For You wouldnt have thought youd see bicycle
example, theres not much of an established rickshaws with better point-to-point geolocation
physical retail infrastructure, so people and better GPS-enabled devices than you
are going directly to a purely online world. see anywhere else in the world. Its amazing
They dont go to a physical store at all and excitingtheres a blend of rough, old-
they simply look online and then purchase. fashioned ways of doing things coupled
If you talk to a group of Chinese women with technology that is way ahead in terms
between the ages of 20 and 25 and ask them of the use of data informatics.
where they shop, theyll just look at you
like youre a bit stupid. Ive never been to McKinsey: Do you think the rest of the retail
a store. Sure, I buy fresh food at stores world will eventually look like China? In other
but for anything other than that, why would words, will physical retail become irrelevant
technologies. For example, weve all received those I like to say that the only things people
personalized marketing e-mails that arent quite should do are things that only people can
right: My dog died, so dont send me e-mails dothat is, making complex decisions that
promoting dog food. Or, I already bought a TV; cant be automated because theyre high
please stop telling me to buy another one. Theres uncertainty, theyre hard to reverse, theres
a lot of clunkiness because weve only been in this not enough data, or theyre judgment calls.
game for a few years and were not yet very good That does two things for you. First, it allows
at it. But personalization is so powerful that even decision making at genuine scale. Second,
at this early stage, if you compare a machine- it makes jobs more interesting for people.
based process with a pretty refined state-of-the-
art manual process, technology wins every single My personal view is that the transformative
timeand not by a slim margin. technology of the early 21st century will
Over the past few years, business leaders and investors By 2025, nearly two-thirds of the estimated 303 million
have become increasingly aware of the vast potential in African households will have discretionary income.
Africas burgeoning consumer market. The continent, This massive expansion of the consumer poolan
now home to more than 1.1 billion people, will account addition of almost 90 million consumers in just ten
for one-fifth of the worlds population by 2025. More yearswill help fuel the continents GDP growth from
and more Africans are entering the consumer class, with 4.9 percent today to 6.2 percent in the next decade, far
tens of millions emerging from poverty in recent years. outpacing the global GDP growth rate of 3.7 percent.1
Yet there are well-known deterrents to doing business Whats more, African consumers are young and
in Africapolitical instability and poor infrastructure, willing to spend. Fifty-three percent of income
to name just twothat can make companies earners in Africa are between 16 and 34 years
hesitant to enter the market at all. That said, a few oldan age group that tends to be more aware of
multinational consumer-packaged-goods (CPG) and eager to try new products. These consumers
companies have managed to make important inroads will contribute to more than $400 billion in total
in Africa. Their experience holds valuable lessons for consumption growth in the next decade.
others aspiring to capture the opportunities in one of
the worlds fastest-growing consumer markets. Driving this rapid growth are two trends that will
continue to have a tremendous impact on Africas
Young, urban, connected consumer market: urbanization and the rise of mobile
The working-age population in Africa is growing at a communications. By 2025, almost half of Africans
clip of 2.7 percent each year (compared with 1.3 percent will be living in cities. Africa already has as many
in Latin America and 1.2 percent in Southeast Asia). cities with more than one million inhabitants as
Exhibit 1 Africa has as many cities of at least one million people as North America.
1,057 million 4,104 million 895 million 597 million 349 million
21 18
27
54
Rural 60
79 82
73
40 46
Urban
A fragmented retail market. Africans buy A city-based strategy is essential in Africa, given
groceries primarily from neighborhood kiosks the rapid pace of urbanization and the differences
or independently owned convenience stores; in many in growth rates even among cities within the same
countries, the percentage of groceries bought in country. But choosing the highest-potential cities is
supermarkets is in the low single digits. An exception just one part of the puzzle; getting the timing right
is South Africa, where supermarkets account for an is another. Leading companies develop fact-based
estimated 75 percent of grocery sales.6 forecasts of the readiness of markets for specific
product categories.
Low data availability and quality. Historically,
theres been a dearth of economic data and market Consumer demand for a particular product or
research about most parts of the continent except category typically follows an S-curve, with per capita
for the largest cities. Companies sometimes income as the main variable. Exhibit 2 shows that
extrapolate existing data on big cities to the national mens grooming products (such as razors and blades),
or regional level, but such an exercise only yields for instance, are already in the hot zonewhere
inaccurate insights. penetration growth accelerates significantlyin
many African cities. To be able to predict when
Lessons learned consumer demand for a category will take off, a
In spite of these serious challenges, pioneering company must have a granular understanding of
companies have been able to make Africa a part economic indicators, local-market trends, and
of their success story. More than 400 companies statistical growth models.
generate at least $1 billion in Africa-based revenues.
Coca-Cola, Nestl, and Unilever, among others, A global packaged-food manufacturer started with
have been on the continent for decades and enjoy a broad strategy but has since narrowed its focus to
significant market share in their categories; P&G 15 cities that collectively represent about 25 percent
has increased its African business more than tenfold of the total growth in packaged-food sales expected
Exhibit 2 Some African cities are already in the hot zone for certain consumer-goods categories.
Category penetration for mens grooming products relative to GDP Regression line Country City
per capita, 2013
0.1
1Average % increase in category penetration from a 1% increase in GDP per capita, corrected for country fixed effects.
Source: McKinsey analysis
across Africa in the next five years. The company lather as an indicator of a detergents quality and
analyzed several subcategories and found, for effectiveness. SABMiller created a beer specifically
example, that in nonalcoholic beverages, ten cities for Onitsha, a large commercial city in southeastern
in five countries will contribute 25 percent of total Nigeria, and gave it a local identity; the beers label
growth, while in the dairy category, ten cities in six features a rising sun, a cultural symbol of Onitshas
countries will contribute 23 percent of the growth. Igbo people. The beer is less bitter than typical
Such insights enabled the company to allocate European lagers, making it better suited for drinking
resources to the most promising opportunities. in hot weather. In Zambia, SABMillers brand is Mosi
(which is what Zambians call Victoria Falls), with a
Tailor the offer to local needs and preferences label that shows the waterfall.7
Companies must seek to understand local needs
and preferences that drive mass adoption of their Consumer companies must become aware of
products, then tailor their offers accordingly. P&G not only local product preferences but also local
changed the formulation of its Ariel detergent in buying behaviors. For example, we found that in
Nigeria to make it lather faster and with less water, Lagos and Luanda, consumers perceive low-priced
having discovered that Nigerian consumers see food items to be of questionable quality, whereas
The most successful companies emphasize both 1 African Economic Outlook 2014: Global Value Chains and
capability building and performance management Africas Industrialisation, a joint report from the African
for their sales force. For instance, they provide Development Bank Group, Organisation for Economic
Co-operation and Development, and United Nations
detailed sales training and guidance, breaking down
Development Programme, May 2014, afdb.org.
the discrete activities each salesperson is expected 2 Analysis based on mobile-penetration data from Analysys
to do during sales visits and creating simple routines Mason, BMI Research, and Yankee Group.
3 Freedom in the World 2014: The Democratic Leadership Gap,
to follow. They rigorously track metrics such as
Freedom House, January 2014, freedomhouse.org.
the productive-call ratio (the percentage of sales 4 Better access to roads in rural areas is critical to raising agricultural
calls that result in the customer placing an order), productivity, Africa Infrastructure Knowledge Program, African
effective distribution (typically measured as listings Development Bank Group, infrastructureafrica.org.
5 For more on these country and regional differences, see The
minus out-of-stocks), and sell-through rates. A few
rise of the African consumer: A report from McKinseys Africa
consumer companiesincluding British American Consumer Insights Center, October 2012, on mckinsey.com.
Tobacco, Coca-Cola, and SABMillerhave built a 6 Canback Global Income Distribution Database, cgidd.com;
reputation for developing the skills of their local Passport, Euromonitor International, euromonitor.com.
7 The beer frontier, Economist, May 31, 2014, economist.com.
African sales teams. 8 Route to Consumer webcasts, Diageo, November 5, 2014,
In the past two years, a number of European indeed fallen since 2010but China remains
companiesamong them, H&M, Primark, and the undisputed giant of garment manufacturing,
Tescobegan sourcing some of their garments with approximately $177 billion in apparel
from Ethiopia. The rest of the apparel industry took exports in 2013.
notice: since 2013, there has been rising interest
in not just Ethiopia but also other East African Among CPOs surveyed, Bangladesh remains at the
countries as potential sourcing destinations top of the list of future sourcing destinations, with
for apparel. Also contributing to the buzz is the 48 percent of respondents including the country
renewal of the African Growth and Opportunity in their top three (Exhibit 1). And 62 percent said
Act (AGOA), which gives certain countries in sub- they intend to increase their sourcing value from
Saharan Africa duty-free access to the US market. Bangladesh over the next five years. The next two
up-and-coming countries are Vietnam and India,
What is the true potential of East Africa to grow where, respectively, 59 percent and 54 percent of
into a major garment-sourcing hub? To find out, surveyed CPOs plan to increase their sourcing value
we visited factories in the region; interviewed in the next five years. Yet the combined apparel
stakeholders, including manufacturers and exports of Bangladesh ($24 billion), Vietnam
buyers; and analyzed market data. In addition, we ($17 billion), and India ($17 billion) still amount
conducted our third survey of chief purchasing to less than one-third of Chinas.
officers (CPOs), this time with a series of questions
focused on East Africa. This year, 40 apparel For the first time in our survey, African nations
CPOs, representing a combined $70 billion in 2014 appear on the list of countries expected to play
purchasing volume, responded to our survey. We more important roles in apparel manufacturing.
found that East Africa could indeed become a Ethiopia, notably, is seventh on the list.
more important center for apparel sourcing, but
only if stakeholdersbuyers, governments, and The East Africa opportunity
manufacturerswork together to improve business According to United Nations projections, sub-
conditions in the region. Saharan Africa will have the highest growth in
working-age population anywhere over the next
Up-and-coming sourcing countries 20 years. By 2035, the working-age population
Nearly three-quarters of survey respondents said, in the region is expected to be as large as Chinas
as they did in 2011 and 2013, that over the next five todaymore than 900 million people. This massive
years they expect to reduce their purchases from labor pool is capturing the attention of several
Chinese firms. Chinese apparel production has industries, including apparel.
Exhibit 1 Bangladesh remains the top future sourcing location; Ethiopia appears on the list
for the first time.
What will be the top 3 sourcing destinations over the next 5 years?
Respondents who ranked the respective countries within the top 3, n = 40, %
Bangladesh 48
Vietnam 33
India 30
Myanmar 30
Turkey 30
China 23
Ethiopia 13
Indonesia 10
Egypt 5
Sri Lanka 5
Tunisia 5
Within sub-Saharan Africa, East African for 46 percent of the countrys exports to
countriesespecially Ethiopia and Kenya, and the EU-15 and trousers 31 percent. As much
to a lesser extent Uganda and Tanzaniaare as 60 percent of exports are sent to Germany
of interest to apparel buyers (Exhibit 2). The and 10 percent to the United States. But
governments of both Ethiopia and Kenya are Ethiopia accounts for a mere 0.01 percent
taking steps to develop their domestic textile of total apparel exports, according to the
and garment industries. World Trade Organization.
Each of the two countries has strengths and Why, then, is Ethiopia such a hot topic for apparel
weaknesses. Our research and interviews revealed, buyers? Our interviewees and survey respondents
for example, that Ethiopia has cost advantages, said the biggest reason is cost: Ethiopias wages for
whereas Kenya boasts higher production efficiency. garment workers are among the lowest globally, at
Challenges common to both countries include poor below $60 per month, and work-permit costs for
infrastructure, cumbersome customs processes, a foreign workers are less than one-tenth those in
dearth of technical and managerial talent, and low neighboring Kenya. Additionally, Ethiopia has low
levels of social and environmental compliance. electricity prices. The country has a strong supply
of hydroelectric power, and while the power grid is
Ethiopia not the most reliable, the Ethiopian government is
Apparel buyers today are sourcing basic, large- building a separate grid for new industrial zones
volume items from Ethiopia: T-shirts accounted currently under development.
Exhibit 2 Among sub-Saharan African countries, Ethiopia and Kenya are of greatest interest to
global buyers.
Do you expect to either start or increase sourcing from these countries between now and 2020?
Respondents, n = 40, %1
Start sourcing Increase value
Ethiopia 28 8 35
Kenya 13 5 18
Mauritius 13 3 15
Lesotho 10 3 13
Madagascar 5 8 13
Uganda 8 3 10
Tanzania 5 5 10
Botswana 5 5 10
Egypt 5 5
South Africa 5 5
Swaziland 3 3 5
The capacity of Kenyas garment factories Like Ethiopia, Kenya will need to address
has grown markedly in recent years, thanks to compliance and risk issues if it is to attract more
foreign direct investments from Asia and the international buyers. According to the CPOs we
Middle East, as well as support from the export surveyed, corruption, high crime rates, and poor
processing zones developed by the Kenyan social compliance are among the core challenges
government. Factories have grown larger they face in Kenya.
and more efficient; they now have around
1,500 employees on average, compared with Future scenarios for East Africa
around 560 in the year 2000. As part of our analysis, we created, tested, and
refined three scenarios for the evolution of East
However, as a result of the lack of a local upstream Africain particular, Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania,
industry, manufacturers must import fabrics and Ugandaover the next decade (Exhibit 3).
which means considerably longer lead times. In 2013, these four countries apparel exports
Fabrics from overseas can take up to 40 days to totaled $337 million.
PoR#4 2015
make their way through customs and to a garment
East Africa apparel sourcing
factory. Manufacturers and buyers alike said The first scenario is that East Africa will
Exhibit 3 of 3
that another challenge of doing business in Kenya remain a niche market. This scenario assumes
is comparatively high labor costs, with monthly that free-trade agreements with the United
wages for garment workers in the $120 to $150 States and the European Union will continue.
Exhibit 3 We see three scenarios for the future of East Africa as a sourcing hub.
Description
Market remains volatile; buyers with Selected large companies Industry upgrading happens; more
existing presence increase volume, regularly source basics from the players from around the world open
others launch pilots region, yet it remains largely a sourcing office in the region
untapped for most players
Potential, $ billion
In part as a result of volatility in currencies A third scenario assumes that major apparel
and equity markets, the prospects for the companies from around the world begin to open
region will remain rather modest. sourcing offices in East Africa. The region attracts
enough investment to upgrade facilities and
In the second scenario, East Africa becomes a new recruit skilled workers, and its export volumes
sourcing option for several large players in the approach those of countries such as Mexico
basics categories, and the regions apparel exports or Pakistan. But even in this scenario, it could
more than double. In this scenario, East Africas take years for vertically integrated, indigenous
garment companies move beyond cut, make, and players to appear in the regionand that might be
trim facilities2 and embark on the path to vertical achievable only if the countries cooperate to build
integrationbut this process could take several years. regional value chains.
Tobias Wachinger
Agrokor is Croatias largest private company and one McKinsey: Agrokor roughly doubled the size of its
of Europes largest family-owned businesses. It has a retail business after acquiring Mercator. Had you
presence in several industries, including agriculture, been planning that deal for a long time?
food production, grocery and nonfood retail, and
tourism. Having acquired Slovenian grocer Mercator Ante Todoric: Yes, wed been thinking about the
in 2014, Agrokor now operates a 6 billion retail merger for many years. Let me give you a little bit
business with approximately 2,000 stores across five of company history: in 1994, Agrokor acquired the
countries in southeastern Europe. Croatian grocery retailer Konzum, which was a
300 million business with 200 stores in Zagreb.
Overseeing Agrokors retail interests is Ante Todori c, Over the past 20 years, Konzums revenues have
who was groomed for the job from a young ageafter multiplied tenfold. As of last summer, Konzum was
all, it was his father, Agrokor president Ivica Todori
c, a 3 billion business operating about 1,000 stores in
who started the company as a small business selling three countries: Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina,
flowers and seedlings in 1976. Ante Todori c joined and Serbia. As we were going on this expansion
the company in 2006 and is now the executive vice journey, we realized that we have a good retail
president in charge of its retail business. formulawe know how to build successful stores in
which customers like to do their grocery shopping.
In July, he sat down with McKinseys Tobias
Wachinger and shared his thoughts on Agrokors So, as far back as nine years ago, we began
recent growth. discussing the possibility of merging with
McKinsey: You now have stores in five countries toward best practice and of maintaining the local
from the former Yugoslavia. These countries share spirit of the countries. Therefore, we constantly need
a difficult past. Was it challenging to bring the to question whether that one direction is the right
various countries management teams together and one in a specific market. We always need to make
get them to all go in the same direction? sure that we have great local leaders in each country
who understand how best to be competitive in that
Ante Todoric: It wasand continues to bea country. I believe weve come to some good decisions
major challenge, for sure. Our countries are very in each country.
different, not just in culture and mentality but also
in economic terms. Slovenia, for example, is at a There are also significant differences in corporate
completely different level of GDP per capita than, say, culture. Mercator comes from a history of being
Bosnia or Montenegro. So of course we need to take a Slovenian state-owned company; Agrokor is
into account that the cost structures of the countries a Croatian owner-led company. There are big
are different and that retail prices are different. differences in how people think about problems,
But taking such differences into consideration is how they deal with challenges, how much they rely
something that every multicountry retailer needs to on analytics, how they develop pragmatic solutions,
do. At its core, retail is a local business. We need to and so on. We all need to bear in mind that there
serve local customer needs, meet local assortment are fundamental differences that stem from each
requirements, recognize local mentalities, and of companys past. So far, I believe we have managed
course hold our own against local competitors. these differences successfullyby creating cross-
country projects, by making sure that both sides
What we want to achieve is the right mixthe perfect are driving projects for synergy creation and best-
balance of getting everyone to march in one direction practice exchange, and of course by having all top
Any executive who has led a major change program So what can consumer-packaged-goods (CPG)
knows that even the most carefully planned companies learn from successful implementers?
programs can fail due to mediocre implementation.
Turning plans into reality isnt easy, and certain The factors that matter most
companies just seem to be better at it than others. Every company leaks value at various stages of
To learn how some of the worlds leading companies the implementation process: some of the prioritized
ensure implementation excellence, we conducted initiatives dont get implemented, others are
a survey of more than 2,200 executives in 900 implemented but dont achieve bottom-line impact,
companies across industries.1 We asked respondents and still others may achieve bottom-line impact
to evaluate their companys implementation but cant sustain it. Good implementers retain
performance, capabilities, and practices. more value at every stage of the process than poor
implementers do (Exhibit 1).
Our survey revealed that good implementers
defined as companies whose respondents reported Clearly, implementation is hard to get right. Less
top-quartile scores for their implementation than half of respondents say that most or all of
capabilitiesalso received higher scores on a their change efforts in the past five years met their
range of financial-performance indexes relative to initial goals and sustained results over time.
their competitors. Perhaps more important, good-
implementer respondents say that two years after The most crucial factors when it comes to
the change efforts ended, their companies sustained implementation success or failure, according
twice the financial benefits compared with change to survey respondents, are organization-wide
efforts at poor implementers. ownership of and commitment to change,
Exhibit 1 The good implementers retain more value than their peers at every stage
of implementation.
prioritization, and sufficient resources and salespeople but also employees in the marketing,
capabilities (Exhibit 2). These factors are the top finance, and product-development functions.
three for many industries, including CPG. Below, we At a large CPG manufacturer, a handpicked
discuss each of these factors in greater detail, citing representative from every relevant function
examples of best practices that weve identified in devoted 20 percent of his or her time to the PMO
our work with CPG companies worldwide. for 12 to 24 months and reported to the PMO leader
as either a direct or dotted-line report. The entire
Ownership and commitment team had joint goals related to the transformation,
In our experience, one effective way to foster and these goals were linked to each team members
ownership and commitment is to create a project- performance appraisals and compensation.
management office (PMO): a formal entity directly
responsible for leading the change effort and The PMO should consist primarily of high-
monitoring its progress. The PMO should be led by performing individuals, but it should also include
a relatively senior person who reports to a C-level up-and-comers who would benefit from the training
executiveotherwise he or she wont be taken and increased responsibilities. In addition, some
seriously. Top management must view the role of companies deliberately assign to the PMO a few
PMO leader as an important stepping stone for a high valued employees who are perceived as roadblocks
performer; in other words, the PMO leader should people who may initially be opposed to the
be someone who is seen as a future C-level executive. transformationto understand and address their
Although the ideal PMO leader will be chosen from concerns and eventually gain their support.
within the company (so that he or she will have more
credibility in the organization), weve found that But ownership and commitment among the PMO
its more effective to bring in a skilled leader from staff wont be enough; the rest of the company has
outside rather than appoint an insider who doesnt to get on board as well. To that end, leaders should
have the leadership skills to rally the troops. ensure that several critical elements are in place
early on, including top-team alignment on the
The troops will almost always include staff transformations change story and aspirations,
from different functions. For instance, a sales specific targets for both performance and health
transformation will most likely involve not just across all the relevant business functions, and visible
Exhibit 2 Ownership of and commitment to change have the greatest bearing on a major
change efforts outcome.
% of respondents,1 n = 2,230
Factors most responsible for change Successful change efforts Unsuccessful change efforts
outcomes, past 5 years
and committed leadership at all levels. Frequent and geographic regions, the senior executive directly in
varied communication is essential. charge of the transformation held a town hall and
fielded questions from employees. The PMO leader
When a leading breakfast-food manufacturer hosted open forums regularly and gave monthly
embarked on a large-scale transformation, progress updates either in person or in writing.
executives kept all stakeholders informed about its
progress using a range of written communications Prioritization of initiatives
e-mail updates, a new internal newsletter, intranet Some transformation efforts flounder because too
stories, webinars during which employees could ask many initiatives are going on at once, spreading
questions anonymouslyas well as in-person forums the organizations resources too thin. To ensure
such as town halls and department meetings. The that resources are efficiently and wisely allocated,
CEO kicked off the change program and, every six leaders should assess each initiatives alignment
months, sent out a company-wide letter celebrating with the organizations strategy and its potential
its achievements. In each of the companys four impact, and prioritize accordingly.
With global category strategies in place and a central Often, it takes a radical decision to get to best
repository of best-in-class sourcing tools (such as practice. For example, a C-level officer at a large
supplier profiles, procurement playbooks, clean food distributor realized that the members of his
sheets, and requests for proposals) accessible to buying staff were constantly in internal meetings
all buyers, the procurement organization was able and thus werent spending enough time on their
to capture synergies and efficiencies in its tactical core responsibilities. He took the bold step of
activitiesfreeing up staff to focus on more strategic discontinuing all routine departmental meetings,
initiatives. The impact was a 54 percent decline in thus freeing up several hours of the buyers
costs compared with the previous four years. time each week. Instead, he required buyers to
participate in detailed one-on-one sessions with
Implementation practices him to discuss progress on specific initiatives.
PoRCG_4_2015
As for specific implementation practices, executives During these sessions, the executive gave each
Secrets to implementation
say their companies do fairly wellsuccess
at developing buyer direct and immediate feedback. Ultimately,
Exhibit 3 of 3
standard operating procedures and assessing the executive himself had many more weekly
employees against their individual goals. But meetings than he previously had, but heand the
they say their companies falter when it comes to buying staffagreed that these meetings were
conducting effective meetings, having processes in significantly more productive.
Exhibit 3 Companies are best at using standardized procedures and assessing employees;
many lack effective problem-solving processes.
1 Respondents who answered dont know/not applicable are not shown, so gures may not sum to 100%.
Among retailers and consumer-goods manufacturers, and corporate interests and toward a culture of
commitment to environmental and social objectives systemwide innovation in products and business
can take many formswhether its distributing fair- models. Yet some skepticism remains as to whether
trade products, reducing materials used in packaging, sustainability efforts have any impact on financial
or ensuring humane working conditions at suppliers performance in the short and medium term. Our
factories. Unilever, for one, has a detailed Sustainable recent research provides answers to both of these
Living Plan, and among the companys goals for 2020 questions.1 In this article, we discuss how companies
is to halve the greenhouse-gas impact of its products are creating value from their sustainability programs
over their life cycles. Swedish furniture maker IKEA and what practices enable companies to keep these
has installed more than 700,000 solar panels in its programs running smoothly and effectively.
buildings worldwide and has committed to own and
operate more than 300 wind turbines. British retail How sustainability programs create value
group Kingfishers sustainability plan, which it calls In previous work, our colleagues have outlined the various
Net Positive, aims not only to make frugal use of ways that companies can use sustainability initiatives
natural resources but also to restore and regenerate to manage risk, drive growth, or improve returns on
the environmentputting back more than we take capital (Exhibit 1).2 In our latest research, we sought
out, as the company says. to unearth examples of how companies are actually
doing it. We found that companies that built sustainability
These programs can be powerful agents of change, into their operations saw immediate benefits, which
both toward greater alignment between customer gave them the momentum to do even more.
Innovation and
new products
Composition
of business New markets
Improve revenue
portfolios
through increased
share and/or
Mitigate risks and Growth price premiums by
capture opportunities marketing sus-
from regulation Regulatory Green sales tainability attributes
management and marketing
Reduce reputation Improve resource
risks and get Risk Returns on management and
credit for your actions management capital reduce environmental
(eg, through impact across value
Reputation Sustainable chain to reduce costs
proper stakeholder
management value chains and improve products
management)
value propositions
Manage risk of
Operational Sustainable Reduce operating
operational disruptions
risk operations costs through improved
(from resource
management internal resource
scarcity, climate-
change impact, or management (eg,
community risks) water, waste, energy,
carbon, employee
engagement)
Source: Sheila Bonini and Stephan Grner, The business of sustainability: McKinsey Global Survey results, Oct 2011, mckinsey.com
Exhibit 2 Our research shows that the value at stake from sustainability challenges
is substantial.
maker Nike, which directs more of its business to Sheila Bonini and Steven Swartz, Profits with purpose:
suppliers that receive high scores on its Sourcing and How organizing for sustainability can benefit the bottom line,
McKinsey on Sustainability & Resource Productivity, July 2014,
Manufacturing Sustainability Index. This index, one mckinsey.com.
of Nikes tools for assessing factory performance, 2 Sheila Bonini and Stephan Grner, The business of
gives sustainability factors equal weight with quality, sustainability: McKinsey Global Survey results, October 2011,
mckinsey.com.
cost, and on-time delivery. Nike requires lower- 3 McKinsey conducted a sustainability-assessment survey with
performing factories to resolve issues in a timely 340 respondents from almost 40 companies, exploring why
manner or else face penalties such as reduced orders and how companies are addressing sustainability and to what
or even a termination of the business relationship. extent executives believe it can and will affect their companies
bottom line.
The incentives seem to be working: between 2011 and
2013, Nike saw a 19-percentage-point improvement
This article is adapted from Profits with purpose: How
in the number of suppliers that met its standards. organizing for sustainability can benefit the bottom line,
which first appeared in the 2014 issue of McKinsey on
Sustainability & Resource Productivity.
Ultimately, each company must define its own The authors wish to thank Sheila Bonini, Kerstin
sustainability philosophy in the context of its Humberg, and Steven Swartz for their contributions
specific business and mission. The examples to this article.
described here illustrate the competitive advantages
that sustainability initiatives can offer. That Achim Berg is a principal in McKinseys Frankfurt office,
Nils Schlag is a principal in the Dsseldorf office, and
said, even the most exemplary commitment to
Martin Stuchtey, based in the Munich office, is the director
sustainability doesnt change the fact that the
of the McKinsey Center for Business and Environment.
earths natural resources are limited. A longer-
term solution will therefore require newcircular
Copyright 2015 McKinsey & Company.
and regenerativebusiness models that decouple All rights reserved.
economic growth from resource consumption.
In recent years, retailers have taken steps to lean attendance and managing payrolltypically
out their processes and gain efficiencieswith produce generic schedules that dont take into
impressive results. Lean-retailing initiatives have account store-specific factors and workload
yielded as much as a 15 percent reduction in retailers fluctuations. The unfortunate results include
operating costs.1 But with competition intensifying high labor costs, inconsistent customer service,
and with customers expecting ever-higher service and dissatisfied employees.
levels, many retailers are now looking for new
ways to further improve productivity and enhance If a retailer could better predict the number
customer service. and skill set of employees that each of its stores
needs every day (or, better, every hour) of
One major area of opportunity is workforce the week, then customers would get prompt
management: specifically, labor scheduling sales assistance, shelves would be replenished
and budgeting. Because of the complexity in a timely manner, employees would be neither
inherent in creating accurate staffing schedules idle nor overworked, and, in most stores, labor
and budgets for a large number of stores, even costs would go down.
sophisticated retailers find substantial room
for improvement in this area. Off-the-shelf Thats already happening at a few leading
software and solutionsalthough useful for retailers. Chief operating officers have begun
important tasks such as monitoring employee looking closely at store activities and taking a
a flexible workforcewith a mix of full-time, A typical supermarket would use this model
part-time, and temporary staffthat can adapt to allot time for 50 to 150 activities (see sidebar,
to schedules that may change on a daily and One retailers results: Lower labor costs,
weekly
PoR#4 2015 basis better store managers). Some activities
Smarter schedules will be tricky to model. For instance, figuring
robust performance-management
Exhibit 1 of 1 processes out how long it should take to ring up purchases
and systems, with clear productivity and at checkout and how many cashiers should be
service-level targets, to ensure that all stores working at any one time isnt a straightforward
are on board and comply with the plan calculation, because customers arrive at
Exhibit Stores should be allotted the same amount of time for the same task, with some
adjustments based on each stores unique context.
Total time for Target time for an Additional time Number of times
store employees activity; should be needed due to local the activity is
to perform a the same for entire store characteristics performed; variable
core activity in store network (eg, store layout, (can be derived
a department average basket size) from historical data)
management systems, rather than build the learn about the new tool and any new processes
tool within their current HR systems. In our is often most effective. Leadership must ensure
experience, it takes approximately six months that the tool is embedded into daily work
to develop an Excel-based prototype, pilot it and fully linked to HR planning and annual
in a handful of stores to test the accuracy of all budgeting processes. To keep it constantly up
assumptions and workload calculations, observe to date and relevant, retailers should consider
its impact on the workforce, and refine it. setting up a scheduling team made up of people
who have the requisite analytical skills and who
How quickly the tool is rolled out to the entire are familiar with store operations. The team would
store network will depend on available resources, be responsible for maintaining and updating
but a store-by-store rolloutwhereby an the tool and adjusting the workload calculations
operations coach helps store employees to new processes.
Among global companies, the rich get richer, while into that top tier from the middle of the pack is no
those in the middle tend to get stuck there. These small feat.1
were among the findings from our colleagues
analysis of the economic-profit performance of But what about retailers specifically? Does inequality
nearly 3,000 large nonfinancial companies in characterize the retail industry as well? We took
the 200711 period. Using economic profit (EP) a closer look at the 237 publicly owned retail
calculated as net operating profit minus the cost companies included in our colleagues research and
of capitalas a measure of value creation and an combined that information with more recent data on
indicator of market-beating strategy, their research retailer performance, as well as our own experience
showed that just a handful of companies create most working with retail organizations around the world.
of the value. Companies in the top quintile generated We discovered that tremendous disparities do
70 times more EP than all the companies in the exist in retail, and the winners are by no means a
middle three quintiles combined. Furthermore, homogeneous set. Two outwardly similar companies
these top companies attracted a disproportionate can have vastly different fates: one can be a value
share of capital. And while its fairly easy for a creator, the other a value destroyer. We believe our
company to drop out of the top quintile, breaking findings have important implications for how retail
Exhibit 1 In retail, the greatest economic profit is made by apparel retailers, while department
stores are destroying the most value.
Source: Analysis of data provided by McKinsey Corporate Performance Analysis Tool (a McKinsey Solution)
That said, retailers in either segment shouldnt be Breaking out of the middle
resigned to losing value. Some drugstore chains Even harder than holding on to a top spot is getting
have improved EP by adding pharmacies to their there at all. Eighty percent of retailers that were in
brick-and-mortar outlets, for example. As for the middle quintiles in the 19982002 period were
department stores, its important to note that the still in the middle ten years later, meaning they
top three players in our sample did generate EPa hadnt significantly improved their ability to create
combined $1.7 billion per year from 2008 to 2012. value (Exhibit 3).
Exhibit 2 Only retailers that outperform their peers on all four value drivers can earn a top spot.
Quintile I II III IV V
4.6 4.3
Margins, % 2.4 2.7 2.1
84 73 83 71
Tangible- 58
capital ratio, %
Revenue growth, 6 11 7 6 6
5-year compound
annual growth rate, %
Source: Analysis of data provided by McKinsey Corporate Performance Analysis Tool (a McKinsey Solution)
Of the 143 retailers that were in the middle Our research has several important implications for
quintiles in the 19982002 period, only 13 CEOs and strategists:
were able to break into the top tier by 2012.
Most of them had help from external trends: Top performers. Maintaining elite status is hard
almost half benefited from emerging-market work: even a one percentage-point dip in margins
momentum and four others profited greatly can force a top performer back to the middle of the
from the massive shift to online retailing. pack. Retailers that held on to their top spot did so
More recent data confirm that mobility remains by doubling their revenues while also improving
an issue for middling performers; 85 percent margins, even if only slightlya 0.6 percentage-
of retailers who were in the middle quartiles point margin improvement sufficed.
in 2012 remained there in 2014.
Middle of the pack. To earn a top spot, middling
performers need to make bold moves and outdo the
competition on several fronts: for example, by investing
Exhibit 3 When ranked by economic profit, the majority of retailers are stuck in the middle.
Finish, 2008121
Start, Middle
9% 80% 10%
199820022 quintiles
Bottom
quintile 9% 36% 55%
1 Based on the largest 3,000 companies by revenues (2011). We excluded companies for which data on normalized operating profit less adjusted
taxes and average total invested capital were not available for the full 10-year period.
2 Figures may not sum to 100%, because of rounding.
more heavily in revenue-management and pricing 3 Bradley, Dawson, and Smit, The strategic yardstick you cant
capabilities, optimizing marketing and promotional afford to ignore. There is, mathematically, a fifth dimension of
economic value: funding. But the weight of evidence suggests
spending, lowering costs through fact-based supplier
that companies cannot directly influence it. For the purposes of
negotiations, and examining the role of the store this analysis, we use a global average cost of capital of 9 percent.
network in the organizations multichannel strategy.4 4 For more on the role of brick-and-mortar stores, see Louise
Herring, Tobias Wachinger, and Chris Wigley, Making stores
matter in a multichannel world, Perspectives on retail and
Low performers. For companies at the bottom, consumer goods, December 2014, mckinsey.com.
revenue growth isnt enough. Big ideas certainly
have the potential to catapult low-performing The authors would like to thank Chris Bradley,
organizations into the upper tiers, but restructuring Natalie Davis, Jrn Kpper, Nicholas Northcote,
might be the first order of business. Theres evidence Jesko Perrey, Sven Smit, and Tobias Wachinger
it can work. Macys, a bottom-quartile performer for for their contributions to this article.
15 years, launched a massive restructuring program
Dymfke Kuijpers is a principal in McKinseys Amsterdam
in 2009; by 2014, it was a top performer.
office, and Simon Wintels is an associate principal in the
Tokyo office.
1 For more about the research, see Chris Bradley, Angus Dawson,
When it comes to revenue growth, it is often the Portfolio momentum: Still by far the primary
case that where you play matters more than how growth driver
well you execute. This broad conclusion about Between 2008 and 2012, portfolio momentum
what makes companies grow 1 certainly applies in accounted for 71 percent of total growth. Companies
todays packaged-food industry: the fastest-growing doing business primarily in emerging markets or in
companies are those that have chosen to compete high-growth categories did particularly well: their
in the fastest-growing product categories and revenue growth was three times that of more geo-
geographic regions. graphically dispersed or more diversified companies.
Using our proprietary analytical approach for The fastest-growing companies follow one of two
decomposing company growth, we analyzed the models. The first model, represented in the bottom-
performance of 20 packaged-food companies in the left quadrant of the exhibit, calls for a focus on a
200812 period, disaggregating their positive and relatively small set of high-growth subcategory and
negative revenue growth into three sources: country combinations (such as sugar-free gum in
China or fruited spoonable yogurt in Brazil). Emerging-
portfolio momentum, or the growth attributable to market companies in expansion mode typically follow
market expansion in the categories and countries in this model, and we expect that they will steadily expand
which a company plays into even more subcategories and countries. The second
M&A and divestitures model, as shown in the top-right quadrant, is one that
execution, measured in terms of market-share some developed-market players have followed: they
gains or losses are present in a much bigger set of subcategories and
countries. But we expect that these large companies,
Our sample consists of a diverse mix of regional rather than expanding further, will instead abandon the
leaders and global players. The granularity of least promising areas and concentrate their resources
the data allows for deep, nuanced analysis. For on the highest-growth subcategories and countries.
example, instead of simply analyzing the broad
category of bakery products, we can drill down into These findings prove yet again that applying a
subcategories: from biscuits, to sweet biscuits, and granular approach to growth is crucial to gaining
then to chocolate-coated biscuits. We also examine competitive advantage. In a business environment
companies performance by country, not just by region. where outexecuting the competition offers little
This fine-grained view yields detailed insights as to reward, a data-driven methodology for identifying the
which factors drive a companys growth and which categories and geographies with the highest growth
factors slow it down. (Our reviews of 2013 and 2014 potential is of utmost importance.2 Company leaders
consumer-goods data further confirm our findings.) should also create mechanisms that allow them to
Exhibit Geographic expansion leads to strong growth only for companies that play in
many subcategories.
x Company revenue growth, % (CAGR,1 200812) x Average revenue growth of companies in quadrant, % (CAGR, 200812)
Number of countries
90
7.3
80 11.8 3.6 6.2
5.5
5.5
70 10.6
60 9.8
2.7 0.1 7.8
50
5.6
40 16.4 3.1
5.2
30 6.3
11.3 18.4
20 16.6
2012
company
10 17.1 13.3 revenue
12.7 9.3
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160
Number of subcategories
1Compound annual growth rate.
Source: Euromonitor; McKinsey analysis
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