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INSE 6320 -- Week 3 Session 2

Risk Analysis for Information and Systems Engineering

Reliability
Expert Opinion

Dr. Babak Khosravifar Concordia University

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Reliability
Reliability: The probability that an item will perform its intended function without
failure under stated conditions for a specified period of time.

Failure: The termination of the ability of the product to perform its intended function
Reliability provides a quantitative statement of the chance that an item will
operate without failure for a given period of time in the environment for
which it was designed.
In its simplest and most general form, reliability is the probability of success.
To perform reliability calculations, reliability must first be defined explicitly. It
is not enough to say that reliability is a probability. A probability of what?

Reliability is performance over time, probability

that something will work when you want it to.
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Reliability Theory
Let T be a random variable representing the failure time or lifetime of a
physical system. For this system, the probability that it will fail by time t is:
t
F (t ) = P[T t ] = f (u )du
0

The probability of the system surviving until time "t" is:

R (t ) = P[T > t ] = 1 - F (t ) = f (u )du
t

Failure rate: the probability that a failure will occur in the interval [t1, t2]
given that a failure has not occurred before time t1. This is written as:

P[t1 T t 2 | T > t1] P[t1 T t 2] F (t 2) - F (t 1)

= =
t 2 - t1 (t 2 - t1) P[T > t1] (t 2 - t1) R(t1)
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Reliability Function

The reliability function is:

&
R (t) = P (T > t) = 1 F (t) = ! ()

R (t) is the probability that the item will not fail in the interval (0, t].
R (t) is the probability that it will survive at least until time t it is
sometimes called the survival function.
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Failure Rate
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Distributions from Failure Rate

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Example: TV Sets
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Example: TV Sets
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Reliability Theory: Weibull Distribution

Both a and b can be varied to obtain a number of different-looking density
curves, as illustrated in the following Figures.

Weibull density curves

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Reliability Function: Weibull Distribution

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Mean time to Failure: Weibull Distribution

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Mean time to Failure: Weibull Distribution

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Reliability Terms
Mean Time To Failure (MTTF) for non-repairable systems
Mean Time Between Failures for repairable systems (MTBF)
Reliability Probability (survival) R(t)
Failure Probability (cumulative density function ) F(t)=1-R(t)
Failure Probability Density f(t)
Failure Rate function (hazard rate) h(t)

Important Relationships:
R(t ) + F (t ) = 1
t t
f (t ) = h(t ) exp - h(u )du = dF (t ) / dt , F (t ) = f (u )du,
0
0
t
R(t ) = 1- F (t ) = exp - h(u )du , h(t ) = f (t ) / R(t )
0
MTTF = tf ( t ) dt = R ( t ) dt
0 0
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MTTF and MTBF

One of the measures of the system's reliability is the mean time to failure
(MTTF). It should not be confused with the mean time between failure (MTBF).
We refer to the expected time between two successive failures as the MTTF
when the system is non-repairable.
For a repairable item, MTBF is the ratio of the cumulative operating time to the
number of failures for that item.
When the system is non-repairable we refer to MTTF as the MTBF

MTBF = MTTF = R ( t ) dt = tf ( t ) dt = E (T )
0 0

Example (repairable system): A motor is repaired and returned to service

six times during its life and provides 45,000 hours of service. Calculate MTBF.
Total operating time 45000
MTBF = = = 7500 hours
Number of failures 6
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Answer

h(t)
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Example
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Answer
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Answer

MTTF=
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Answer
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Reliability Block Diagram (RBD) Technique

The first step in evaluating a system's reliability is to construct a reliability block
diagram which is a graphical representation of the components of the system and
how they are connected.
The purpose of RBD technique is to represent failure and success criteria pictorially
and to use the resulting diagram to evaluate System Reliability.

Benefits:
The pictorial representation means that models are easily understood and therefore
readily checked.
Block diagrams are used to identify the relationship between elements in the system.
The overall system reliability can then be calculated from the reliabilities of the blocks
using the laws of probability.
Block diagrams can be used for the evaluation of system availability provided that
both the repair of blocks and failures are independent events, i.e. provided the time
taken to repair a block is dependent only on the block concerned and is independent
of repair to any other block
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System Configuration Models

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Typical RBD configurations and related formulae

Series System
The reliability of the system is given by
R(t ) = RA (t ) RB (t ) RC (t ).... RZ (t )
Input Output

The interpretation can be stated as any unit failing causes the system as a whole to fail.

Parallel System
The reliability of the system is given by:
Input Output

R(t ) = 1 - (1 - RX (t ))(1 - RY (t ))

The units X and Y that are operating in such a way that the system will survive as long as at
least one of the unit survives.
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Typical RBD configurations and related formulae

Series/Parallel System
When blocks such as X and Y themselves comprise sub-blocks in series, block
diagrams of the type are shown below

Output
Input

RX (t ) = RA1 (t ) RB1 (t ) RC1 (t ).... RZ 1 (t )

RY (t ) = RA2 (t ) RB 2 (t ) RC 2 (t ).... RZ 2 (t )
Thus, the reliability of the system is given by

R(t ) = 1 - (1 - RX (t ))(1 - RY (t ))