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Mexico 2015 Pyramid
Mexico 2015 Pyramid
The following list of definitions has been developed by Pyramid Research to help our clients better
understand the data and market analysis presented in our services and reports. It represents an on-going
process in which we continually
0 assess and re-evaluate the industry, the technologies, the products, and
the relationships between market sectors to develop a structure that best portrays the dynamics of the
mobile communications marketplace. This process is one which has evolved at Pyramid over the past
twenty years. It relies upon the on-going research and extensive knowledge base of our analysts, and the
input of our clients: suppliers, operators, regulatory agencies, and the investment community. Our view of
the mobile communications marketplace has been developed to provide a representative structure,
organized in a way that is consistent with the industry and useful to our clients.
The market segmentation and definitions are not static. They evolve as new technologies are introduced,
and reflect feedback from our clients. We are constantly attuned to shifts in the industry and to the focus
of our clients to expand our market perspective, our definitions, and the data we include in our products.
We encourage you to share your ideas with us. And we urge you to call and talk to us if any segmentation
or definition is unclear.
General
The data presented in Pyramid's mobile forecasting databases are organized in eleven segments:
Demographics
Penetration of Population
Subscriptions by Operator
Mobile Subscriptions by Type of Package
Churn
Subscriptions by Technology
Subscriptions by Segment
Mobile Data Users
Usage
Average Revenue per Subscription (ARPS)
Revenues
This organization provides a structure which groups together the data to give a concise view of the mobile
revenue opportunities in a market or country: market size, drivers, enabling technologies, systematic
revenue breakdown with annual opportunity in US dollars, and growth trends.
All databases include historical and forecast data for a ten-year period. Key data is collected and updated
throughout the year by Pyramid's regional analysts.
Sources
Since 1986, Pyramid Research has compiled an extensive database on telecommunications markets in
Asia, Africa and the Middle East, Europe, North America and Latin America. The core components of this
database include:
Regulatory
Interviews with top officials at regulatory agencies.
Statistical data published by governments and regulatory agencies.
Copies of telecom laws and amendments.
2013 Client Confidential
Copies of tariff schedules, interconnection regulations and universal service requirements.
Operators
Interviews with key officials in strategic planning, marketing, network planning and financial planning.
Sources
Since 1986, Pyramid Research has compiled an extensive database on telecommunications markets in
Asia, Africa and the Middle East, Europe, North America and Latin America. The core components of this
database include:
Regulatory
Interviews with top officials at regulatory agencies.
Statistical data published by governments and regulatory agencies.
Copies of telecom laws and amendments.
Copies of tariff schedules, interconnection regulations and universal service requirements.
Operators
Interviews with key officials in strategic planning, marketing, network planning and financial planning.
Extensive surveys conducted with operators to determine key network statistics, investment, technology
rollout plans, subscribers by service, tariff plans and service offerings.
Internal statistics and bulletins published by operators.
Vendors
Interviews with key officials within vendors both at in-country offices and in company headquarters.
Other
Occasionally, independent reputable secondary sources are used to validate our forecasts. Secondary
sources include institutions such as the World Bank, the International Telecommunications Union (ITU)
and the United Nations (UN).
1. DEMOGRAPHICS
Demographic and economic data are provided to help clients establish a framework for each country and
region included in the Pyramid mobile communications forecasts. Information such as population ,
nominal GDP, real GDP growth, consumer price inflation and currency exchange rates are important
indicators of market sophistication, current and projected demand, and opportunity. The Economist
Intelligence Unit is the source of this economic and demographic data unless otherwise noted.
Population
The mid-year population of the country. This number is reported in thousands. It is used to calculate
penetration rates.
Households
The mid-year number of households in the country. This number is reported in thousands.
Businesses
Includes registered business firms, non-business firms, institutions, schools and government. This number
is reported in thousands (000s). Pyramid ordinarily acquires this data from national statistics agencies. In
some instances, Pyramid employs additional data from national and international organizations and may
employ some of its own analysis and international benchmarking to estimate values.
2. PENETRATION OF POPULATION
Mobile Subscriptions
Number of registered mobile accounts as reported by operators at the end of the calendar year as a
percentage of the population.
Prepaid
Number of registered prepaid mobile accounts as reported by operators at the end of the calendar year as
a percentage of the population.
Postpaid
Number of registered contract mobile accounts as reported by operators at the end of the calendar year
as a percentage of the population.
Mobile Users
The number of active mobile service users at the end of the calendar year, as a percentage of the
population. A mobile user is an individual with one or more active subscriptions. Pyramid Research bases
its calculation on the number of active subscriptions (such as SIM cards) and the ratio of active
subscriptions to people, as reported by service providers and national telecom authorities.
The number of registered subscriptions enrolled with each of the public network operators. Subscription
data for network operators includes Mobile Virtual Network Operator (MVNO) and reseller subscriptions.
MVNO and reseller subscriptions are also shown separately.
Where additional operators are expected to start offering services in the future, their market shares are
estimated from the year of their expected launch. Unless the identity and the number of these new
operators are known at the time of producing the forecast, they will be considered in aggregate form and
noted as Other.
In recent years, prepaid has become the dominant subscription mode in many countries. This section
breaks down the number of registered mobile accounts into two types: prepaid, which includes those
subscriptions not subject to a monthly fee or a contract; and postpaid, which includes those subscriptions
subject to a contractual agreement between the subscriber and the service provider.
5. CHURN
The annual churn rate represents the number of disconnected mobile accounts during a calendar year as
a percentage of the total mobile accounts at the beginning of the same calendar year. In the case of
prepaid accounts, different operators use different criteria to consider an account inactive. Pyramid uses
the prevailing criteria in each particular country to calculate churn. In the case of postpaid accounts, an
2013 account is considered inactive once the contract is terminated by the network operator. Client Confidential
Pyramid's churn
rate includes both subscribers that abandon mobile service and subscribers that switch their service
provider.
subscriptions not subject to a monthly fee or a contract; and postpaid, which includes those subscriptions
subject to a contractual agreement between the subscriber and the service provider.
5. CHURN
The annual churn rate represents the number of disconnected mobile accounts during a calendar year as
a percentage of the total mobile accounts at the beginning of the same calendar year. In the case of
6. SUBSCRIPTIONS
prepaid BY TECHNOLOGY
accounts, different operators use different criteria to consider an account inactive. Pyramid uses
the prevailing criteria in each particular country to calculate churn. In the case of postpaid accounts, an
This section
account breaks down
is considered the total
inactive oncenumber of subscriptions
the contract is terminatedaccording to the bearer
by the network technology
operator. Pyramid'sthat
churn
supports
rate them.
includes Analog
both technologies
subscribers are shown
that abandon in aggregate
mobile form,
service and and the remaining
subscribers that switchsub-categories
their service
presented are shown separately where relevant, representing the maximum transmission speed
provider.
achievable per subscription.
Analog
Includes subscriptions to cellular networks using analog technologies. Different analog standards such as
Advanced Mobile Phone Service (AMPS), Nordic Mobile Telephone (NMT) and Total Access
Communication System (TACS) are combined into a single analog category.
Digital Trunking/IDEN
Includes subscriptions to cellular networks using iDEN/ESMR networks. Our estimates include public and
commercial networks only, and offered in competition with traditional cellular networks. Our estimates do
not account for any closed, private network usage of digital trunking technology.
GSM
Includes subscriptions to cellular networks using the Global System for Mobile Communications standard
(GSM) in the 900, 1800 and 1900 MHz frequency bands. GSM generally provides speeds of up to 9.6
Kbps.
TDMA
Includes subscriptions to cellular networks using the Time Division Multiple Access (TDMA) standard.
CDMA One
Includes mobile subscriptions to cellular networks using Code Division Multiple Access (CDMA). CDMA is
based on the IS-95 standard. Connections to CDMA using stationary/fixed devices are not included in this
definition.
HSCSD
Includes subscriptions to cellular networks using the High-Speed Circuit-Switched Data standard
(HSCSD); assumes that all HSCSD subscriptions are GSM compatible. Depending on the technical
specifications of each HSCSD offering, data speeds range from 14.4 Kbps to 57.6 Kbps.
TD-SCDMA
Includes subscriptions to cellular networks using the Time Division Synchronous CDMA. The TD-SCDMA
standard was proposed by China Wireless Telecommunication Standards group (CWTS) and approved by
the ITU in 1999.
TD-CDMA
Includes subscriptions to cellular networks using the UTRA TDD standard planned to operate in the
unpaired spectrum. TDD uses a combined time division and code division multiple access scheme
proposed by ETSI Delta group and finalized in 1999.
PAS
Includes subscriptions to cellular networks using the Personal Access System standard.
PHS
Includes subscriptions to cellular networks using the Personal Handyphone System standard
PDC
Includes subscriptions to cellular networks using the Personal Digital standard (PDC), the TDMA-based
second generation technology originated in, and mainly used in, Japan. PDC based services operate in
the 800 MHz and 1500 MHz frequency bands.
2013 Client Confidential
GSM/GPRS
Includes subscriptions to cellular networks using the General Packet Radio Service (GPRS); assumes that
all GPRS subscriptions are GSM compatible.
PAS
Includes subscriptions to cellular networks using the Personal Access System standard.
PHS
Includes subscriptions to cellular networks using the Personal Handyphone System standard
PDC
Includes subscriptions to cellular networks using the Personal Digital standard (PDC), the TDMA-based
second generation technology originated in, and mainly used in, Japan. PDC based services operate in
the 800 MHz and 1500 MHz frequency bands.
GSM/GPRS
Includes subscriptions to cellular networks using the General Packet Radio Service (GPRS); assumes that
all GPRS subscriptions are GSM compatible.
GSM/EDGE
Includes subscriptions to cellular networks using the Enhanced Data Rates for GSM Evolution standard
(EDGE); assumes that all EDGE subscriptions are GPRS and GSM compatible. The theoretical peak
speed attainable with an EDGE service is 384 Kbps.
CDMA 1X
Includes subscriptions to cellular networks using the CDMA 1xRTT standard; assumes that all CDMA 1x
subscriptions are backward-compatible with CDMA. The theoretical data transfer peak speed attainable
with a CDMA 1x service is 144 Kbps.
CDMA 1X (WLL)
Includes stationary or limited mobility subscriptions to cellular networks using the CDMA 1xRTT standard;
assumes that all CDMA 1x subscriptions are backward-compatible with CDMA. The focus here is on lines
with fixed devices, or with a mobility technologically restricted to a narrow, restrained zone (e.g. a
neighborhood or a city).
CDMA2000 (EV/3X)
Includes mobile subscriptions to cellular networks using CDMA EV-DO, EV-DO Rev A, and EV-DO Rev B.
CDMA2000 (EV/3X-WLL)
Includes stationary or limited mobility subscriptions to cellular networks using CDMA EV-DO, EV-DO Rev
A, and EV-DO Rev B.
UMTS
Includes subscriptions to cellular networks using the Universal Mobile Telecommunications System
standard (UMTS); assumes that all UMTS subscriptions are EDGE, GPRS and GSM compatible. The
theoretical peak speed attainable with a UMTS service is 2 Mbps.
HSPA
Our estimates include subscriptions to cellular networks using the WCDMA based High Speed Packet
Access protocols. Our definition encompasses HSDPA and HSUPA protocols. HSDPA offers mobile data
communications at theoretical speeds up to 14.4 Mbps, or around 7Mbps in actual deployments.
Mobile WiMAX
This category refers to wireless access lines using WiMAX technology. Those subscriptions using WiMAX
for fixed or portable applications are captured in our Fixed Communications forecasts.
LTE
This category refers to the Long Term Evolution phase of the UMTS standard, essentially UMTS Release
8. LTE seeks to offer Download rates of 100 Mbit/s, and upload rates of 50 Mbit/s for every 20 MHz of
spectrum.
Other Technologies
Our Other category encompasses all 4G technology not included above, that will be available as a
stand-alone, distinct technology offering. This includes UMB, Flash-OFDM and other technologies that
may emerge in the build-up towards 4G.
7. SUBSCRIPTIONS BY SEGMENT
Business
Includes all subscriptions that are obtained by the individual through the company that he/she works for.
The company generally selects the service provider contracted as part of a broader enterprise plan, and is
2013 responsible for the monthly payment of the service. Subscriptions that are used primarily
ClientforConfidential
business
purposes, but are paid for by the individual, are not included in business subscriptions but, rather, are
included in consumer subscriptions.
Our Other category encompasses all 4G technology not included above, that will be available as a
stand-alone, distinct technology offering. This includes UMB, Flash-OFDM and other technologies that
may emerge in the build-up towards 4G.
7. SUBSCRIPTIONS BY SEGMENT
Business
Includes all subscriptions that are obtained by the individual through the company that he/she works for.
The company generally selects the service provider contracted as part of a broader enterprise plan, and is
responsible for the monthly payment of the service. Subscriptions that are used primarily for business
purposes, but are paid for by the individual, are not included in business subscriptions but, rather, are
included in consumer subscriptions.
Consumers
Includes the non-business customer base composed of the total market subscribers less the corporate
base.
Messaging
Number of active mobile users using messaging services such as SMS, MMS, Email and Instant
Messaging services.
SMS
Active unduplicated mobile subscribers using two-way messaging services. Includes generally P2P
messaging only.
MMS
Active unduplicated mobile subscribers using multimedia messaging services defined as a messaging
technology that allows users to exchange multimedia communications between capable mobile phones
and other devices. MMS is an extension to the SMS protocol as it allows users to send and receive,
almost instantaneously, wireless messages that include images, audio, and video clips in addition to text.
Email
Active unduplicated mobile subscribers accessing service providers or external email on a wireless
device. Include users of SMS-based and WAP-based email applications, as well as users of such email
devices as a BlackBerry.
Other Messaging
Active unduplicated mobile subscribers accessing messaging services exclusive of SMS, MMS and Email
such as text and WAP-based instant messaging services on wireless devices.
Applications
Mobile Video Users
The number of unduplicated people who use video services on a wireless device. Video services include
Number of active mobile users using application or non-messaging services such as ringtone, music,
all video clip downloads, video calling, streaming and TV multicast/broadcast services.
video or remote access services.
Ringtones
Active unduplicated mobile users downloading ringtones to a wireless device. The number of ringtone
users will be higher than the number of MMS users, as it will include subscribers who download SMS-
based ringtones, as well as multimedia messaging users. The ringtone classification includes all
monophonic, polyphonic, ringback and realtune (music tracks as ring tones) downloads.
Graphics/Images
Active unduplicated mobile users downloading photos, logos, etc to a wireless device. The number of
imaging applications users will be higher than the number of MMS users, as it will include subscribers who
download SMS-based images, as well as multimedia messaging users.
Games
Active unduplicated mobile users who download mobile games from service providers and third-party
content publishers on J2ME and BREW-enabled devices, as well as subscribers playing multi-player
mobile games online to the wireless device.
Browsing/WAP
Active unduplicated mobile users who download content from service providers and third party content
publishers. Includes all content-based services such as browsing, premium content across all segments
2013 and content-based VAS such as Location-Based Services (LBS). Excludes music downloads, all video
Client Confidential
and broadcast content.
Music
Games
Active unduplicated mobile users who download mobile games from service providers and third-party
content publishers on J2ME and BREW-enabled devices, as well as subscribers playing multi-player
mobile games online to the wireless device.
Browsing/WAP
Active unduplicated mobile users who download content from service providers and third party content
publishers. Includes all content-based services such as browsing, premium content across all segments
and content-based VAS such as Location-Based Services (LBS). Excludes music downloads, all video
and broadcast content.
Music
Active unduplicated mobile users who download mobile music services from service providers and third
party content publishers on enabled devices. The category includes all music download and streaming
services.
Video
Users (number of unduplicated people) that use video services on a wireless device. Includes all video
clip downloads, peer-to-peer video calling, video messaging/mail (via email or flavors of messaging),
streaming and TV broadcast services.
Data Cards/Modems
Active unduplicated mobile users that subscribe to remote access services via data cards such as GPRS,
UMTS and/or Wi-Fi packages.
9. USAGE
Shows MOU (minutes of usage) per subscription, and segments usage by prepaid and postpaid
subscription. MOU includes both incoming and outgoing traffic. SMS and MMS usage per month per
subscription is also shown. Per standard industry reporting, t is important to note that our SMS and MMS
usage metrics as shown assume all subscriptions use SMS and MMS services. As such the SMS and
MMS monthly usage expressed in our forecast is a diluted figure. When calculating SMS and MMS
usage, however, Pyramid Research relies on usage patters for those who subscribe to the service only.
ARPS stands for Average Revenue per Subscription and represents a measure of the amount of revenue
that each subscription generates on average each month. ARPS figures are reported in US dollars. We
provide ARPS on an aggregate basis, prepaid and postpaid basis, operator basis, voice and data basis,
by messaging service and data application, and by technology generation (3G and non-3G).
11. REVENUES
Revenue figures are reported in millions of US dollars. Total revenues are calculated using a bottom-up
approach that takes into consideration the average number of user and/or accounts of a particular
technology in a given year and the average monthly revenue per subscription (ARPS) during that same
year. Non-recurring fees such as activation fees are not accounted for in our present methodology.
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DEMOGRAPHICS
MOBILE CHURN
Messaging
SMS [000] 89,837 97,294 101,668
MMS [000] 8,562 8,664 8,565
Email [000] 12,813 15,013 18,866
Others [000] 134 215 335
Applications
MOBILE USAGE
MOBILE ARPS
MOBILE REVENUES
125,929 127,092
30,539 30,910
6,146 6,207
$1,776,000 $1,904,000
$13,590 $14,430
$20,360 $21,320
3.50 3.40
14.40 14.40
10% 10%
74% 75%
111% 114%
87% 88%
24% 26%
104% 106%
139,569 145,083
84,715 86,721 0.67
35,103 36,836
13,637 14,882
6,115 6,645
0 0
0 0
7,267 8,798
64 69
34 39
1,805 2,026
267 305
5,097 6,358
43.8% 42.7%
Total percentage
139,569 145,083 Analog 0 0%
0 0 Digital Trunking/iDEN 381 0%
0 0 GSM 827 1%
41 21 TDMA 0 0%
0 0 CDMA One 0 0%
0 0 CDMA One (WLL) 0 0%
0 0 HSCSD 0 0%
0 0 TD-SCDMA 0 0%
0 0 TD-HSPA 0 0%
0 0 PAS 0 0%
0 0 PHS 0 0%
0 0 PDC 0 0%
0 0 GSM/GPRS 7,942 7%
847 0 GSM/EDGE 17,457 16%
8,044 5,080 CDMA 1X 14 0%
0 0 CDMA 1X (WLL) 0 0%
0 0 CDMA2000 (EV/3X) 1,028 1%
68 0 CDMA2000 (EV/3X-WLL) 0 0%
0 0 UMTS 42,500 39%
16,683 9,171 HSPA 30,630 28%
85,006 93,639 Mobile WiMAX 0 0%
0 0 LTE 9,578 9%
28,879 37,172 Others 0 0%
0 0
130,677 135,690
8,893 9,393
130,740 134,546
7,370 7,125
43,267 47,877
5,074 7,911
199 194
151 146
376 362
27 24
0 0
$11.63 $12.13
$12.17 $12.60
$7.78 $8.35
$13.21 $13.98
$0.00 $0.00
$23.00 $22.97
$0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $0.00
$5.73 $5.73
$33.29 $34.48
$3.99 $3.71
$7.64 $8.42
$1.06 $0.96
$0.81 $0.69
$0.00 $0.00
$0.24 $0.26
$0.01 $0.01
$6.58 $7.46
$0.16 $0.16
$0.13 $0.14
$0.27 $0.31
$4.95 $5.60
$0.10 $0.10
$0.57 $0.80
$15.35 $16.59
$4.27 $4.15
$19,062 $20,714
$6,538 $6,341
$12,524 $14,374
$1,744 $1,641
$1,323 $1,177
$5 $4
$401 $437
$15 $23
$10,781 $12,733
$261 $276
$217 $233
$440 $536
$8,118 $9,559
$167 $172
$940 $1,368
$637 $588