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Abstract
Customer churn is haunting Indian mobile telecom services in a big way. Mobile number portability
has further aggravated this problem for mobile telecommunication companies, although it has rightly
empowered the subscribers of these services. Telecom sector is a very capital-intensive sector, so
a customers stay with a cellular services operator effects its earning. The efforts are being made to
predict and model the customer churn towards telecom services, so as to maximize customer lifetime
value for the company. Before making predictions of customer switching behaviour, it is imperative to
understand those variables which determine customers loyalties towards a mobile services vendor. So
this study provides an exploratory analysis of the factors which become reasons for discontinuing ser-
vices of a cellular operator. The results have identified factors like: network, tariffs, technology, adver-
tising, rewards programme and external factors which lead to switching of a mobile services operator.
Keywords
Mobile number portability, mobile telecommunication companies, switching, customer churn
Introduction
The Indian mobile telecom sector is going through its most challenging times. An industry which is credited
with endowing us with one of the most affordable telecom services in the world and thus empowering
majority of Indian population, spread across whole of economic pyramid and thus changing the way we do
our daily chores, is finding it hard to sustain growth. Recent issues of cancellation of 122 telecom licences
by Supreme Court, raising of spectrum auctioning prices, toughening of Know Your Customer (KYC)
documentation norms and introduction of mobile number portability is making a huge impact on the
environment and operational efficiencies of Indian telcos. Further policy flip-flops by legislator and Indian
income tax regulation volatility in the form of VodafoneHutch type deals are still haunting the FDI in this
sector. Moreover, if we see the future prospects, then the mobile penetration in India is 73.32 per cent as
reported by Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) (2013), which means majority is still untapped.
Many studies have proven that to improve the growth story and to bring an inclusive growth in our country,
it is imperative to increase the mobile phone penetration. As reported by World Bank every 10 per cent
Suresh K. Chadha, Professor, University Business School, Panjab University, Chandigarh, India.
E-mail: skchadha_ubs@rediffmail.com
Namita Bhandari, Research Scholar, University Business School, Panjab University, Chandigarh, India.
E-mail: namita_bhandari1980@hotmail.com
200 Suresh K. Chadha and Namita Bhandari
addition to mobile telephony penetration leads to 0.81 per cent impetus to growth rate in terms of GDP, thus
further emphasizing the importance of the telecom sector. But this sector requires huge capital investment
and for new players to venture in the Indian telecom industry and for the existing ones to remain viable, the
return prospects should be promising. But according to one report by Cellular Operator Association of India
& PwC (2011), the Indian mobile telephony industry is ailing mainly due to following reasons:
Iraq
Australia
New Zealand
Singapore
Belgium
Finland
France
Greece
Netherlands
Portugal
Switzerland
China
Korea
Malaysia
Philippines
Algeria
Czech
Egypt
Hungary
Morocco
Russia
Turkey
Chile
Colombia
3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Peru
Japan
Austria
Denmark
Source: TRAI. Global Wireless Matrix 1Q11, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, April 2011.
Germany
Italy
South Africa
Spain
Sweden
Indonesia
Israel
Norway
Poland
Ukraine
Figure 1. Comparison of Number of Cellular Operators in India and Selected Other Countries, March 2011
Argentina
Mexico
4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
UK
Canada
US
Pakistan
Thailand
5 5 5 5 5
Brazil
6
Bangladesh
9
Nigeria
10
India-Average
14
India-Maximum
202 Suresh K. Chadha and Namita Bhandari
Purpose of MNP
The two main objectives of MNP are consumer welfare and ensuring healthy competition in the markets.
To correct market imperfections and to curtail market dominance abuse by few players and to make
economy more efficient, intervention of government in the form of regulations like MNP is required
(Durukan et al., 2011). Free markets also work efficiently if there are regulations to protect and empower
the consumers are present (Kotler & Armstrong, 2005).
Further as per Raghav (2009) MNP reduces barrier to switching, leading to increase in choices for
customers, which will further increase competition among players causing improve in quality of services
and reduced tariffs. Also it leads to better provisions for customer who can efficiently utilize his mobile
phone number.
MNP in India
MNP is a critical component of the switching procedure for subscribers of mobile phone services. As
expected, most of the subscribers would like to retain their earlier mobile connection number while
switching to a new cellular operator; shifting to another mobile number can be a problematic experience for
users, and can lead to major costs, especially where the concerned phone number has become an important
aspect of a consumers identity and connectivity for professional purposes (Consumer Focus, 2009). Keeping
in mind the interest of consumers, TRAI introduced the process of MNP in the Indian mobile services sector
on 20 January 2011 (initially at intra-circle level), with an aim to provide a switching procedure that is clear,
user friendly, simple and secure. Further Indian government has given a go ahead to the launch of national
MNP which is likely to start by 15 March 2015. This will further intensify the existing competition in the
telecom sector, as National MNP permits a mobile subscriber to shift to the network service of any mobile
operator anywhere in the country, while retaining his existing mobile phone number.
But this facilitator of consumer switching process (MNP) has made the retention of existing customer
base a very challenging task for cellular services providers and has ushered an era of hyper competition
in an already fragmented Indian telecom industry. In the month of December 2012 alone there were
29.35 lakh MNP requests according to telecom regulator of India, that is, TRAI. This was 47.78 per cent
more than what was reported just a month back, that is in the month of November 2012.
Literature Review
The literature review of the service industry validates the importance of retaining the existing customer
base and gaining the customer loyalty.
As established, customer switching hurts companys profitability and market share: therefore,
Keaveney (1995) tried to identify main reasons of switching by employing critical incident method on
500 service customers and came up with some 800 such critical behaviours. These behaviours were then
categorized into eight heads as: pricing, inconvenience, core service failure, service encounter failures,
response to service failures, competition, ethical problems and involuntary switching. Keaveney (1995)
developed this exploratory model as an inter-industry model as it covered customers response for some
25 services and not for any one service like telecommunication.
Jones and Sasser (1995) mentioned few industries which experience the problem of customer
defection at a very high rate, due to regulatory changes like: telecommunication, electrical power,
airlines, savings and loan products companies. The author highlighted certain techniques for researchers
and practitioners to detect signs of defection. These ways to listen to the customers could be: customer-
satisfaction index, feedbacks, market research and strategic activities like involving frequent and long-
term customers in the selection of the frontline staff.
The effect of customer retention is considered to be more profitable than the effect of acquiring new
customer or market share (Reichheld, 1996). Thus making a sense for focusing on customer retention
and minimizing customer switching.
The customerrelationship dynamics could be better understood with the help of studying complaint
patterns and triggers for switching the service provider. Therefore, in a study by using the critical incident
method, the attempt was made to classify the determinants of relationship dissolution with service
provider in three ways as: one which push customers to switch service provider, that is, switchers,
another which keep them loyal, that is, pullers and also a third one which after switching bring them back
to the old service provider, that is, sawyers (Roos, 1999).
To retain customers and to ensure their long loyalty, memorable and positive service experience plays
an important role which could be generated with the help of three important service elements: functional,
mechanical and human (Haeckel, Carbone & Berry, 2003; Berry, Wall & Carbone, 2006). Therefore,
factors which could trigger switching would be the deficiency in any of these elements. The change in
the service provider could be triggered by many reasons ranging from better offers from competitors to
dissatisfaction experienced by the customer (Roos & Gustafsson, 2007).
The more the competition, more are the chances that customer would compare the services with those
of the competing brands, and telecom is one industry where product differentiation being very less, poor
service experience could easily change customer loyalties. The Indian telecommunication sector is
becoming highly competitive especially after the arrival of MNP, and in this scenario it has become
crucial for telecom companies to put more stress on the customer retention strategies rather than just
focusing on strategies of customer acquisition. In such a situation of hyper competition, it has become
imperative for mobile operators to understand the reasons behind customer churn. The information about
factors which lead to customer dissatisfaction or loyalty can improve a companys bottom line by
containing churn. In the study by Rajeswari and Ravilochanan (2011), the authors considered three
major factors to study customer behaviour in the Indian mobile sector, that is, perceived product quality,
perceived service quality and perceived customer value.
In a study conducted in Cairo, Murad (2011) tried to identify direct and moderating factors which
influence a customers switching intention in banking context. Here, on the basis of the existing
literature and empirical data, the certain actions of bank like quality of service, level of commitment
and incidents of anger were taken as direct factors. Along with that there were few factors which
moderated the direct factors effect on customers switching intention like switching cost, duration of
customers relation with bank, customer participation in making decisions and how attractive the
alternates are (Murad, 2011).
Islam and Ahamed (2011) in their study measured the customers attitude in Bangladesh towards the
wireless Internet services on the basis of Fishbeins multi-attribute attitude model. The author tried to
understand what factors contribute how much to take purchase decision towards a service provider as in
Bangladesh there are six telecom service providers and how customer decides to opt for which service,
this model has measured (Islam & Ahamed, 2011).
Customer Switching
In service marketing, the role of having customers is equally important as acquiring customers
(Berry, 1980). The industry is interested in knowing that what leads to switching of customer to the
competitors services. The answer to this question is crucial as losing a customer leads to loss of future
stream of revenue. Moreover, an existing customer eventually increases his spending, which further
leads to operational efficiencies, and on the other hand acquiring a new customer needs more investment
in the form of promotional expense, etc. (Keaveney, 1995).
On average, it is estimated that annually a telecom operator looses 27 per cent of its customer base
due to churn/attrition (Wolniewicz & Dodier 2004). Hence, it becomes necessary to understand the
factors which lead to switching of a mobile services subscriber.
Considering that the cost of obtaining new customer is five times than that of retaining the existing
customer, the research works are going on to understand the predictors of customer attrition (like
demographics, usage rate, etc.) by clustering users with the help of data mining techniques (Khan,
Jamwal & Sepehri, 2010).
With the opening up of the telecommunication sector to private players, foreign investment, thus
entering of new players and innovative technologies, the telecom industry service market has become
hyper competitive. And in this highly competitive and dynamic mobile telecom industry, customer
attrition whether in the form of MNP has become a very grave problem. Many mobile services users
switch from one cellular operator to another to fetch better tariffs, plans or services or just for the sake
of getting a new carrier (e.g., to get a new cellular phone as cellular operators have tie up plans with some
mobile manufacturers) (Khan et al., 2010).
The choice to switch to the competitors services is liable to be effected by some motivational factors or
variables like attitude or personal opinion of the subscribers (Katono, n.d.). Attitude is the tendency of a
customers disposition for the provider of a service is positively inclined (Dimitriades, 2006). And if the
customers attitude is negative, he is less likely to stay with the incumbent service provider (Katono, n.d.).
The Study
Research Design: The present study aims to find out the variables which can be used to understand the
construct of customer switching and customer loyalty towards mobile phone services. Due to lack of
clarity in how to measure customer switching and customer loyalty in the context of cellular services and
that too in Indian scenario, there is a need to conduct an exploratory level research. Hence this study is
exploratory in nature.
Data: For the study both primary and secondary data have been used. The primary data has been collected
for the study by using the convenience sampling method from areas in and around Chandigarh between
January and February 2014. The questionnaire was sent to a sample size of 150 respondents through
e-mail and in person and finally 140 filled questionnaires were received leading to a response rate of
93 per cent. But the final data used for analysis purpose is of 117 after taking out the responses having
problem regarding missing data and also dropping the outliers. Along with primary data, the existing
literature and reports of regulatory and industry bodies of Indian telecom sector (e.g., TRAI, COAI) were
also referred to.
Questionnaire Development/Item Generation: The statistical tool to be used in the present study is
exploratory factor analysis and before doing so a pool of variables or items which explain the concerned
construct is required and this initial list of items should be exhaustive (Matsunaga, 2010). The survey
instrument was designed to measure the factors behind switching of mobile phone service provider along
with the questions pertaining to demographic profile of the respondents. The questionnaire was developed
after doing extensive literature review in the concerned area of study. Keeping in mind the exploratory
nature of the study, a study conducted by Gumucio, Pechuan and Marques (2012), in which the similar
constructs of loyalty and switching in mobile services context were studied, was found to be most
suitable. Our questionnaire contains 37 statements, which are used for measuring reasons for switching
on the five-point Likert scale. These statements are taken from the above referred study, carried out in
Spain, in which the author has collected 39 statements (Appendix E) as factors behind switching by
conducting a brainstorming session where the following question was asked from a group of
60respondents: What reasons provide the motivation for cell phone users to discontinue service with
their mobile operator? (Gumucio et al., 2012, p. 9). The questionnaire is presented in Appendix A.
Statistical Tool: The methodology used in the present study is factor analysis, with the aim to understand
and create a set of variables which can be used to measure the construct of both loyalty and switching in
mobile services scenario. Further factor analysis as a statistical tool will also help us to do data reduction
by bringing parsimony in number of variables which are sufficient to study the understudy constructs
and still retain the most of the required information also. To do statistical analysis, SPSS 16.0 was used.
Factor Analysis
On the basis of the responses gathered through the survey in this study factor analysis has been done to
create the dimensions which can be used to understand the constructs of customer switching and loyalty
in mobile phone services.
Reliability
Reliability means consistency of performance and in research it implies that the scale which is to be used
to study a construct should be able to consistently reflect it (Field, 2005). Now to establish the reliability
in factors which we have created above, the Cronbachs alpha (a) is used for each factor with its sub-
items for the construct of customer switching as follows:
Customer Switching
As explained above, to measure this construct among customers of mobile phone services users, six
factors are created. Now to find how consistently each of the factor is explained by its sub-items,
Cronbachs alpha (a) are calculated as shown in Table 3.
Table 3 shows that reliability for factors such as network and services, tariff, technology and rewards
programme is excellent as the Cronbachs alpha (a) score is 0.911, 0.861, 0.849 and 0.831, respectively
(Field, 2005). For factor advertising, the Cronbachs alpha (a) score of 0.715 indicates adequate
reliability. Even for factor external factor, reliability is adequate as a above 0.6 is considered adequate
in exploratory research works. Also as none of the items deleted is causing improvement of Cronbachs
alpha for each factor with their respective sub-items, we are retaining all the sub-items for all the factors.
Therefore, the overall reliability of the factors created and sub-items under them is very good.
Discussion
Further with the coming up of facilities like MNP, the customer is becoming more powerful and to retain
their existing customer base getting into the nuances of customers expectations regarding mobile phone
services is crucial. Moreover, customer switching is a multidimensional phenomena, that is, a customer
usually have many reasons to stay or to leave their service providers and to understand this a comprehensive
bundle of factors which include products, services, pricing and all the major determinants need to be
considered. Also to maximize the customers share of wallet towards a telecom companys other products,
that is, to cross-sell, the companies can use these factors to understand how much importance them
should be given and thus different products and selling pitches can be drafted accordingly. Attempts are
being around in the mobile telecom industry to model the churn behaviour of subscriber and improve the
predictive efficiency of such models. So to improve the predictability of such models, it is important to
identify the right variables whose relationship with customer switching and loyalty we want to establish
and this study provides a framework of such variables.
Conclusion
Indian telecom industry is facing a huge problem of customer churn, so to keep hold of this priceless asset
of telcos, the study has presented a framework of factors in the context of customer switching. With the help
of this framework the managers can understand that which factors contributes how much towards customer
loyalty or switching, by examining their real-world data. The frameworks are as follows:
Network
& Services
External Tariffs
Factors
Customer
Switching
Rewards
Technology
Programme
Advertising
Appendix
Appendix A1
Questionnaire
This survey is being undertaken as a part of a research at UBS, Panjab University.
Please answer the following questions regarding mobile phone services, keeping in mind the present scenario of
Mobile Number Portability. Mobile Number Portability means that you can change your mobile service provider
(e.g., Airtel/Vodafone/Idea, etc.) without changing your current mobile phone number.
1. How strongly do you agree or disagree with the following factors as a reason to discontinue the services of your
mobile service provider?
Indicate the extent of your agreement or disagreement with each of the following statements by putting a tick mark
under the appropriate number. The meaning of the numbers is as:
1 2 3 4 5
Strongly Disagree Moderately Disagree Neither Disagree Nor Agree Moderately Agree Strongly Agree
No. Statements 1 2 3 4 5
1 Theft or loss of cell phone
2 Actions from competitors (e.g. better promotion, better prices)
3 Change of location or travel
4 Problems with call forwarding
5 Changes in service to a post-paid system
6 Difficulties with reception of signal and network quality
7 Restricted network coverage
8 Network saturation at a particular time of day
9 Problems with the Internet service
10 Disadvantages in the use of value added services (e.g. hello tunes, mobile games,
astrology services)
No. Statements 1 2 3 4 5
11 Problems with customer care and technical support
12 Higher rates than other operators
13 Increase in rental rates
14 Absence of optional plans with special rates
15 Being overcharged
16 Confusing charges for special promotions
17 Scant/very little product and service innovation
18 Service uses outdated technology
19 Lack of information on product and service characteristics
20 Confusing promotional campaigns
21 Elimination of existing programmes and/or promotional offers
22 Misleading rates
23 False advertising
24 Lack of innovative promotional campaigns
25 Unattractive or poor quality reward programmes
26 Negative experience with rewards and promotions
27 Attractive promotions from competitors
28 The operator does not value the customer
29 A customer is treated as a number, not as a person
30 The operator does not take into account how long the customer has used
the firms services
31 Deficiencies in customer care in stores and call centres
32 Lack of politeness or friendliness from staff in stores and call centres
33 Lack of staff training in customer care in stores and call centres
34 The operator does not process requested post-sales transactions
35 Delay in handling complaints
36 Inability of operator to solve problems and complaints
37 Excessive advertising via SMS
In this section, you are going to be asked about your personal details. I assure you that your answers will be kept
confidential.
2. Gender:
(a) Male (b) Female
3. Age:
(a) Less than 25 years (b) From 25 to less than 35 years (c) From 35 to less than 45 years
(d) From 45 to less than 55 years (e) 55 years and more
4. Educational level:
(a) High school and Less (b) Diploma (c) Graduate (d) Post Graduate (e) Ph.D.
5. Occupation:
(a) Salaried (b) Own Business (c) Professional Worker (d) Housewife
7. Monthly Income:
(a) Up to `20,000 (b) 20,001 to 40,000 (c) 40,001 to 60,000
(d) 60,001 to 80,000 (e) 80,001 to 100,000 (f) 100,001 and above
Name: __________________________________
Address: __________________________________
Phone/E-mail: __________________________________
Appendix B
Appendix D
Appendix E
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