246 Olland LPG (2) Convent Status and Issues ‘Bangladesh's curent cl anaual demand is around 5 million tons, and the self-sufficiency satis only 5%. However, Bangladesh expects continuous econeaic developaeat, sad the dusty sector and weasport sector demand will lad a drastic ol demand growth: 6 times higher in 2041 than in 2016 average growth rate 74% pa), even under the “Energy Efficient and Conservation Scenario" Bangladesh as several plans to extend or aewly develop oll sefinris: however, as fa as the oil demand will row as projected. the oil mport will be mandatory to met the demiund and keep increasing. EEL Eiting opacity MEAL Cops apason RENN Projet, mciingort moi Demand Sonsce: SICA "Souter Chatagong™ PSMP2016 Survey Team Figure 2-10 Oil Demand and Supply Balance, 2014 to 2041 Furthermore, Bangladesh's LPG demand is only 2% out of total oil demand, and less than 0.01% out of the total energy demand. However. LPG conmuuiption is expected 10 grow deasically az an alternative of households’ cooking fuel (curently domestic natural gas) and transportation fuel. “The current price of LPG is two to three times higher than tha ofthe pipelined gas, and may not be affordable for average households in Bangladesh, While Bangladesh rural households spend 4-7 % of their monthly income 10 traditional solid biomass, LPG at the marketed price would be 25% Ifthe government seriously {tends to pursue the universal ecess of modern energy, LPG may not be a good solution or need soxia policy ‘countermeasures, Subsidy to LPG may workat some degree to increase affordability: however, without sound consideration on side effects and an ext strategy. LPG subsidy would become a huge pressure to the national coffer. given the projected future demaad, Jn terms of affordability, biogas could be an alternative to promote universal access of modem energy ‘especially rural areas (@) Targets to Achieve © The government shonld define a strategic positon to oil products in its holistic energy policy, ‘economic development policy. ‘© The government should develop an exit strategy of oil products subsidy. @) Roadmap © A clear strategic positioning of oil products in the energy policy by 2017. Exit strategy of oil products subsidy by 2017.24.7 Power Development Plan (1) Current Status and Issues (@) Power demand forcast Estimating the long-term power demand considering with future change of daily load curve ‘To estimate the long-term power demand considerting with fimure change of daily load curve, the daily ‘oad curve up to 2041 estimated is superimposed on the maximum power demand with consideration ‘given to the potentioal demand up to 2041. The maximum power demand up to 2041 is estimated in another chapter. The value is shown in Table and Figure. ‘The result of estimation is illustrated below. The teansition of power demand at intervals of five years from 2015 suggests that there isa rise in power demand during the 2015-2041 period, and a change from the ‘daily power demand of evening peak tothe daily power demand of daytime peak un conformity t the ‘changes in daily load curve. ‘Table 2-4 Maxhimun power demand forin 2015 to 2041 FowerDemans [201s | 2020 | 2025 | 20a0 | _2oas—[ 040, Taw. ast | 12,949 | 19,191 | 27.434 | 38 604 | 49,034 ‘Source: ICA PSMP20I5 0.200 ane 0.000 0000 40.000 som ara >a 20.000 il 10.000 ns ° : S~ 2018 2000 2028 2020 2035 2010 ‘ Sone: TCA PSM2015 Figure 2-12 Transition of estimated povwer Maximun power demand form ‘demand during 2015-2041 period in 2015 to 2041 (Chit: MW) Bangladesh (Cait: MWY) (©) Power Development Plan 1) Plan reliability review ‘The following table shows the number of power development plans for PSMP2010 aad the number of power plants constructed as of 2015. As of 2015, about 40% of the plan by BPDP and other plans ‘combined are proceeding‘Table 2-5 Power Development Plans and Results by Fuel Type od Se Cosa Mar Tan Sse eros setae ws 9 10 a Par SES 52a Toe Tsao Eso neosros Ml genase os es ax ‘My Tan —Eixe as 19a 1s0 ae Te set i7e tse “sor at ra 2 ae 2 rs an 2) Busing generation capacity _Exastug geeraion capacity as 08 2015 ss 10,59SMW. ‘Table 2-6 Existing generation capacity in 2015 Gas sting 6,780 oil Existing 3,202 Coal Easting 182 ‘Sub Total Fasting 10165 Hydro Existing 230 Power Import sting 00 ‘Ground Total Busting 10.895 Seuse: ICA PSMPIOIS