Quantitative Techniques 1 (2010-11)

Session 1. Introduction to the course and overview

Session 2. Data and Statistics:

1-1 Data sets & sources of data
1-2 Elements v. variables v. observations
1-3 Qualitative v. quantitative data
1-4 Scales of measurement (nominal, ordinal, interval & ratio)
1-5 Cross-sectional, time series & descriptive statistics
1-6 Define samples v. populations; population v. parameter v. statistics
1-7 Data acquisition interpretation, statistical inference and identification of errors.
 
Students Assignment: In examples of business applications, students will have to identify,
describe and interpret samples v. populations, types of variables and data, and descriptive
statistics useful for making decisions by using the given data.

Session 3. Descriptive Statistics: Tabular and Graphical Methods

2-1 Frequency & relative frequency distributions
2-2 Cumulative frequency distributions
2-3 Data presentations - bar graphs, pie charts, histograms, ogive, and Stem-n-leaf.
2-4 Excel applications - COUNTIF, FREQUENCY FUNCTION.
 
Students Assignment: From sample data and case problems, students will have to construct and
interpret data displays and summaries of qualitative and quantitative data by using the above
applications.

Session 4 & 5. Descriptive Statistics: Numerical Methods:

:
3-1 Numerical measures of location, dispersion.
3-2 Sample statistics, population parameters & point estimators
3-3 Measures of central location - mean, median, mode, percentiles & quartiles
3-4 Measures of variability - range, inter-quartile range, variance, standard deviation.
3-5 Measures of relative location & detection of outliers - z-scores.
3-6 Exploratory data analysis - five-number summary & box plot (box-n-whisker plot)
3-7 Excel worksheets - sample variance & standard deviations; descriptive statistics tool.
 
Students Assignment: Given a set of data and business applications, construct and interpret
numerical summaries for data by using the above applications.

Session 6 & 7. Introduction to Probability:

:
4-1 Experiments - sample space & sample points
4-2 Methods of assigning probabilities - classical, relative frequency & subjective
4-3 Formulas for estimating probabilities [calculate the P(A), P (A and B), P (A|B)]
4-4 Basic relationships of probability - complement events (addition law (union &
intersection of events, mutually exclusive events)
4-5 Conditional probability - joint & marginal probabilities; independent events;
multiplication law
4-6 Bayes' theorem - prior probability v. posterior probabilities
 
Students Assignment: Given case examples and business applications that benefit from analysis
of uncertainties, students will have to determine the probability of specific events by using any of
the above methods.

Session 8 & 9. Discrete Probability Distributions:

:
5-1 Descrete Vs. Continuous Random Variables.
5-2 Binomial experiments, experimental outcomes, probability function, expected value &
variance
5-3 Excel worksheets for computing binomial properties, value & variance (BINOMDIST)
5-4 Poisson experiments & probability function Excel's POISSON function
 
Students Assignment: Given sample data and business applications, students will have to
compute and interpret binomial, Poisson probability distributions for discrete random variables.

Session 10. Continuous Probability Distributions:

6-1 Continuous variables (not discrete) - difference in ways of computing probabilities
6-2 Normal probability distribution - normal curve, normal probability density function,
standard normal probability distribution, probability values, computing probabilities for
normal probability distribution, converting to standard normal distribution (several
formulas)
6-3 Computation of z & x values
6-4 Excel's NORMDIST, NORMSDIST, NORMINV & NORMSINV worksheets for
computing probabilities & z values
 Students Assignment: Given sample data and business applications, students will have to
compute and interpret the normal probability distributions.

Session 11. Sampling and Sampling Distributions:

7-1 Definitions of simple random sample; sampling distribution & point estimation.
7-2 Point estimation - sample statistics to estimate the value of a population parameter, point
estimator v. point estimate, sampling error (several formulas - need to calculate
point estimates)
7-3 Sampling distributions, expected values, standard deviations, central limit theorem,
relationship sample size & sampling distribution - relationship of sample mean (xbar) and
the sampling distribution of the same proportion (phat) - expected values, standard
deviations, statistical process for inferences, and form of sampling distribution.
 
Students Assignment: Given a population, use the method of simple random sampling to select
a sample and calculate estimates of a population mean, standard deviation, and proportion from
the given data.

Session 12 & 13. Statistical Confidence and Interval Estimation:

8-1 Definitions of confidence interval, alpha, sampling error, confidence level, standard error,
margin of error, degrees of freedom
8-2 Subtracting and adding the margin of error to the point estimate
8-3 Confidence intervals & estimates for population means & proportions
8-4 Level of significance & confidence coefficient
8-5 Effects of sample size, margin of error & confidence
8-6 Different t distributions for different cases & degrees of freedom
8-7 Implications of statistical findings
8-8 Excel's TINV
 
Students Assignment: Construct an interval estimate of population means and proportions and
interpret the measure of precision associated with the estimate by using the given data.

Session 14. Hypothesis Testing:

:
9-1 Definitions of null & alternative hypotheses, type I & II error, critical value, level of
significance, one- & two-tailed test, p-value
9-2 Development of null & alternative hypotheses, and methods for testing research
hypotheses, testing validity of claims & decision making.
9-3 Procedures & rationale for their applications
9-4 Analysis of sample data - computation & interpretation of p-values; hypothesis tests
about the values of a population mean, a population proportion, and a population
variance; characteristic of the t distribution;
9-5 Evaluation of conclusions
9-6 Steps of hypothesis testing; using the test statistic, p value & critical values
9-7 Formulas and Excel's, TDIST, to conduct a one-tailed & two-tailed hypothesis tests (need
to compute values & enter functions & formulas)

 Students Assignment: Given business situations involving one population mean, formulate null
and alternative hypotheses about a population mean and a population proportion, and judge
whether statements about the value of population parameters should be rejected by using the
relevant test statistics.

Session 15. Comparisons Involving Means:

10-1 properties of sampling distributions; independent v. matched samples
10-2 Point estimators of differences in means
10-3 Expected value & standard deviation of M1 - M2
10-4 Pooled variance estimators & point estimators
10-5 Hypothesis tests about the difference in values of two population means, two population
proportions, and two population variances
10-6 Hypothesis tests about the difference in values among more than two population means
10-7 Sample mean, standard deviation & test statistic for matched samples
10-8. Use excel functions for two group t-tests.
 
Students Assignment: Given business situations involving two populations, formulate
hypotheses, conduct hypothesis tests, estimate the differences between the means, and evaluate
statistical inferences about these differences by using appropriate measures.

Session 16. Comparisons Involving Proportions:

11-1 Contingency tables to test for independence
11-2 Test of independence -contingency tables, expected frequencies, test statistic
11-3 Formulas & Excel's worksheets for interval estimates, hypothesis test,
goodness-of-fit test, independence test - CHITEST
 
Students Assignment: Given business situations involving two population proportions (same
and different), compare the two proportions: formulate hypotheses, calculate statistical
significance of differences, and test for the independence of two variables by using relevant
measures.

Session 17, 18, 19 & 20. Correlation and Simple Linear Regression Analysis:
12-1 Dependent v. independent variables
12-2. Scatter diagrams
12-3 Interpretation of covariance & correlation as measures of association between variables
12-4 Simple linear regression to model the relationship - model, equation, estimated regression
& simple linear regression equation
12-5 Method of least squares - scatter diagrams, estimated values, sum of squares of
deviations, least squares criterion, slope & y-intercept, least squares regression equation (need to
fit an estimated regression equation to a set of sample data based on the least squares method)
12-6 Coefficient of determination - sum of squares due to error( SSE),
total sum of squares (SST), sum of squares due to regression (SSR), relationship among SST,
SSR, SSE, coefficient of determination, correlation coefficient
12-7 Model assumptions - error term & distribution values and shapes
12-8 Testing for significance -t-test, , significance in simple linear regression, t-test statistic,
rejection rule, confidence interval; F-test, F-test statistic & rejection rule
12-9 Cautions interpretation of significance tests, statistical v. practical significance,
interpretation of ANOVA & regression statistics
12-10 Estimation & prediction
12-11 Residual analysis - residual for observation, residual plot against x, plot of residual
against independent & dependent variables (need to use a residual plot to judge validity of
regression assumptions, recognize outliers & identify influential observations)
12-12 Formula's and Excel's Chart Wizard to construct scatter diagram, computation of
estimated regression equation, graph generation; R-squared value; ANOVA table; regression
Tool;
 
Students Assignment: Given paired data about dependent and independent variables, formulate
a linear regression equation and evaluate the relationship of the variables described in the
regression equation by using appropriate statistical measures.