London Pop & Westward M Fiqri Rihyawan 29316056

For Evaluation Only
London Pop
No.
A
1 The problem is the entertainment company need
to choose between 3 options in publicizing the
London Pop Music Concert
2
The decision node is:
1st Option which is Music Press Advertisement,
2nd Option which are Music Press and National
Press Advertisement,
3rd Option which are Music Press, National Press,
and Commercial Radio Press
3 The State of Nature in this case is they expect to

get 3 demand option, which are high, medium,
and low ticket demand
4 These are the payoffs based on the state of nature of this case
B 0.4
Low
-20
0.5
1st Option Medium
-8 -20
0.1
High
100
0.1
Low
-60
0.3
2nd Option Medium
TreePlan Trial Version, For Evaluation Only TreePlan.com

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2
36 36 20
0.6
High
60
0.05
Low
-100
0.15
3rd Option Medium
2 -60
0.8
High
20
C Based on the tree above, the option that give the

higher profit is option number 2 to choose
advertise on Music Press and National Press,
(0,1*60)+(0,3*20)+(0,6*60) = 36, Higher than th
1st and 3rd option which resulting in -8 and 2
D
I don't have any problem to propose the solution
to choose the 2nd Option. Because from the tree
above we can see that the 2nd option have a hig
probability of 60% with 60 payoffs compared to
the others that have a probability that can't keep
with the amount of payoffs. To simplify, the other
option have a high probability but with small
amount of payoffs and vice versa.

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MUHA
DECISIO
ntertainment company need SHORTCA
options in publicizing the
ncert
usic Press Advertisement,

Music Press and National
Music Press, National Press,

o Press
n this case is they expect to

which are high, medium,
d
re of this case
-20
-20
-20
-20
100
100
-60
-60

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20
20
60
60
-100
-100
-60
-60
20
20
ove, the option that give the

number 2 to choose
ess and National Press,
,6*60) = 36, Higher than the
ich resulting in -8 and 2
lem to propose the solution

ption. Because from the tree
at the 2nd option have a high
th 60 payoffs compared to
a probability that can't keep
ayoffs. To simplify, the others
obability but with small
d vice versa.

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MUHAMMAD FIQRI RIHYAWAN

29316056
GM3
DECISION MAKING & NEGOTIATION
SHORTCASES LONDON POP CONCERT

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ID Name Value Prob Pred Kind

0 TreePlan 0 0 0D
1 5T
2 5T
3 0 0E
4 0 0E
5 0 0E
6 3T
7 3T

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9 4T
10 4T
11 4T
12 5T

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NS S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 Row Col
3 3 4 5 0 0 22 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 37 9
0 0 0 0 0 0 42 9
3 6 7 8 0 0 7 5
3 9 10 11 0 0 22 5
3 12 1 2 0 0 37 5
0 0 0 0 0 0 2 9
0 0 0 0 0 0 7 9

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0 0 0 0 0 0 12 9
0 0 0 0 0 0 17 9
0 0 0 0 0 0 22 9
0 0 0 0 0 0 27 9
0 0 0 0 0 0 32 9

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Mark
1

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Westward
No.
1.
January Launch
-$500,000
2
$3,005,000
April Launch

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2 Westward should keep with the first policy launching in April. Because in April we
doesn't have to spend some money and have an expected profit that is higher
($3.005.000 ) than launching in January ($2.680.000). Even in April launch, the
highest probabilities (After rival 70%) have more profit ($2.900.000) than the highe
probabilities in January (Before rival 80% with profit of $2.750.000).
3 I think that the polciy is insensitives to changes the estimated probabilities even
launching in April or January. Launching in April without changing the schedule can
considered as the best option because Westward doesn't have to spend $500.000 o
to keep up with the rival to launch earlier.

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75%
High Circulation
80%
Before Rival $4,000,000 $3,500,000
0 $2,750,000 25%
Low Circulation
$1,000,000 $500,000
anuary Launch
$2,680,000
Increase Advertisement
-$200,000 $2,400,000
20%
After Rival
1
0 $2,400,000
Normal Advertisement
0 $2,000,000
75%
High Circulation
30%
Before Rival $4,000,000 $4,000,000
0 $3,250,000 25%
Low Circulation
$1,000,000 $1,000,000
pril Launch
$3,005,000
Increase Advertisement

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-$200,000 $2,900,000
70%
After Rival
1
0 $2,900,000
Normal Advertisement
0 $2,500,000
n April. Because in April we

cted profit that is higher
). Even in April launch, the
fit ($2.900.000) than the highest
of $2.750.000).
stimated probabilities even

ut changing the schedule can be
sn't have to spend $500.000 only

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MUHAMMAD FIQRI RIHYAWAN

29316056
GM3
DECISION MAKING & NEGOTIATION
$3,500,000 SHORTCASES WESTWARD
$500,000
70%
High Circulation
$3,300,000
$4,000,000 $3,300,000
30%
Low Circulation
$300,000
$1,000,000 $300,000
50%
High Circulation
$3,500,000
$4,000,000 $3,500,000
50%
Low Circulation
$500,000
$1,000,000 $500,000
$4,000,000
$1,000,000
70%
High Circulation
$3,800,000
$4,000,000 $3,800,000

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30%
Low Circulation
$800,000
$1,000,000 $800,000
50%
High Circulation
$4,000,000
$4,000,000 $4,000,000
50%
Low Circulation
$1,000,000
$1,000,000 $1,000,000

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QRI RIHYAWAN
6056
3
& NEGOTIATION
WESTWARD

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ID Name Value Prob

0 0 TreePlan 0 0
0 1 0
0 2 0
0 3
6 4
0 5
0 6
0 7

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0 8
17 9 0
18 10 0
19 11
20 12
21 13
22 14
0 15
0 16
17 0
18 0
19
20
21
22

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Pred Kind NS S1 S2 S3 S4 S5
0D 2 1 2 0 0 0
0E 2 3 4 0 0 0
0E 2 5 6 0 0 0
1E 2 7 8 0 0 0
1D 2 9 10 0 0 0
2E 2 15 16 0 0 0
2D 2 17 18 0 0 0
3T 0 0 0 0 0 0

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3T 0 0 0 0 0 0
4E 2 11 12 0 0 0
4E 2 13 14 0 0 0
9T 0 0 0 0 0 0
9T 0 0 0 0 0 0
10 T 0 0 0 0 0 0
10 T 0 0 0 0 0 0
5T 0 0 0 0 0 0
5T 0 0 0 0 0 0
6E 2 19 20 0 0 0
6E 2 21 22 0 0 0
17 T 0 0 0 0 0 0
17 T 0 0 0 0 0 0
18 T 0 0 0 0 0 0
18 T 0 0 0 0 0 0

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Row Col Mark

26 1 1
11 5
41 5
4 9
19 9
34 9
49 9
2 13

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7 13
14 13
24 13
12 17
17 17
22 17
27 17
32 13
37 13
44 13
54 13
42 17
47 17
52 17
57 17

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