10 Modelos LOGIT

OCTUBRE 2016
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" Guas de Taller
Econometra
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Modelos de estimacin
logstica - Logit
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Ing. Econ. Henry Amiel Condori Portillo

G/ockn<"jeqpfqtkrBiockn0eqo"
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Geqpqoc"{"Pgiqekqu"Kpvgtpcekqpcngu"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""GPK/WCPEX"
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MODELOS DE ESTIMACIN LOGSTICA - LOGIT
RESUMEN TERICO - LOGIT
Nc" tgitgukp" nqiuvkec" gu" wpc" vepkec" fg" cpnkuku" ownvkxctkcpvg." gp" nc" swg" nc" xctkcdng"
fgrgpfkgpvg" q" xctkcdng" tgurwguvc" gu" wpc" xctkcdng" fkeqvokec" {" nc" xctkcdng" q" xctkcdngu"
kpfgrgpfkgpvgu"rwgfgp"ugt"ewcnkvcvkxcu"q"ewcpvkvcvkxcu0"
Tabla 1
Variables del modelo.
Xctkcdng"fgrgpfkgpvg" Xctkcdng*u+"kpfgrgpfkgpvg*u+"
Fkeqvokec" Ewcnkvcvkxc"q"ewcpvkvcvkxc"
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Gp" owejcu" fg" ncu" crnkecekqpgu" fg" nc" tgitgukp" nc" xctkcdng" fgrgpfkgpvg" cuwog" unq" fqu"
xcnqtgu" fkuetgvqu0" Rqt" glgornq." gp" wp" dcpeq" uwgng" pgegukvctug" wpc" gewcekp" fg" tgitgukp"
guvkocfc"rctc"rtgfgekt"uk"c"wpc"rgtuqpc"ug"ng"crtqdct"uw"uqnkekvwf"fg"vctlgvc"fg"etfkvq0"C"
guvc"xctkcdng"fgrgpfkgpvg"rwgfgp"ftugng"nqu"xcnqtgu"[?3"uk"nc"uqnkekvwf"fg"vctlgvc"fg"etfkvq"
gu"crtqdcfc."{"[?2"uk"gu"tgejc|cfc0"Eqp"nc"tgitgukp"nqiuvkec."fcfq"wp"eqplwpvq"rctvkewnct"
fg" xcnqtgu" fg" ncu" xctkcdngu" kpfgrgpfkgpvgu" gngikfcu." ug" guvkoc" nc" rtqdcdknkfcf" fg" swg" gn"
dcpeq"crtwgdg"nc"uqnkekvwf"fg"vctlgvc"fg"etfkvq0"
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Figura 1
Funcin de distribucin logstica (Acumulativa).
"
"
0 + 1 X1 + 2 X 2 +...+ p X p
e
Pi = + X + X +...+ p X p
1+ e 0 1 1 2 2
Si : Z = 0 + 1 X 1 + 2 X 2 + ... + p X p
eZ
Pi =
1 + eZ
Eqoq" Pk" ug" kpvgtrtgvc" eqoq" wpc" rtqdcdknkfcf." nc" gewcekp" fg" tgitgukp" nqiuvkec" uwgng"
gzrtguctug"fg"nc"ocpgtc"ukiwkgpvg<" P ( y = 1| X 1 ,| X 2 ,...,| X p )
Kpi0"Jgpt{"Cokgn"Eqpfqtk"Rqtvknnq" Rikpc"4"
"
Gn" ukipq" fg" nqu" eqghkekgpvgu" vkgpg" wp" ukipkhkecfq" korqtvcpvg0" Uk" nqu" eqghkekgpvgu" fg" ncu"
xctkcdngu"uqp"rqukvkxqu."guq"ukipkhkec"swg"nc"xctkcdng"cwogpvc"nc"rtqdcdknkfcf"fgn"uweguq"swg"
guvcoqu" guvwfkcpfq0" Uk" gn" eqghkekgpvg" gu" pgicvkxq." gn" hcevqt" ew{q" eqghkekgpvg" gu" pgicvkxq"
fkuokpw{g"nc"rtqdcdknkfcf"fgn"uweguq"swg"guvcoqu"guvwfkcpfq0"
"
Glgornq<"ugc"gn"ukiwkgpvg"oqfgnq"guvkocfq<"
e0 + 1 X e6+3 X
P( y = 1| X ) = =
1 + e0 + 1 X 1 + e6+3 X
Tabla 2
Probabilidades de ocurrencia para valores X.
Y(X) X Y(X) X
202247" 2" 208679" 404"
202267" 204" 2098:7" 406"
2022:4" 206" 20:7:3" 408"
20236:" 208" 20;38:" 40:"
202488" 20:" 20;748" 5"
202696" 3" 20;956" 504"
202:54" 304" 20;:74" 506"
20363;" 306" 20;;3:" 508"
204537" 308" 20;;77" 50:"
205765" 30:" 20;;97" 6"
207222" 4" 20;;:8" 604"
Figura 2
Estimacin de regresin logstica donde Bo=-6 y B1=3.
1.00
0.90
0.80
Variable dependiente E(y)
0.70
0.60
0.50
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.8
4
4.2
Variable independiente X
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wp"tcpiq"fg"2"c"3."{"swg"Pk"pq"guv"nkpgcnogpvg"tgncekqpcfq"eqp"Zk0"
"
Probabilidad de que ocurra un evento"

"
+ X + X +...+ X
e0 1 1 2 2 p p
Pi = + X + X +...+ p X p
1+ e 0 1 1 2 2
eZ
Pi =
1 + eZ
Probabilidad de que no ocurra un evento"
"
eZ 1
1 Pi = 1 Z
=
1+ e 1 + eZ
Razn de probabilidades (odds ratio)"
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rtqdcdknkfcf"fg"swg"qewttc"gn"gxgpvq"tgurgevq"fg"nc"rtqdcdknkfcf"fg"swg"pq"qewttc0"
eZ
Pi Z
= 1 + e = eZ
1 Pi 1
1 + eZ
Pi + X + X +...+ p X p
=e 0 1 1 2 2
1 Pi
Pi
= eZ
1 Pi
"
Rctc"wpc"tgitguqtc"gp"rctvkewnct"ug"vgpftc<"
Razn de probabilidades = e ci "

"
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cqu+"ugt<"
"
Razn de probabilidades = e 5(0.9730477 ) = 0.0077 "
Logaritmo natural de la razn de probabilidades
P
Li = ln i = ln e Z
1 Pi
Li = Z
Li = 0 + 1 X 1 + 2 X 2 + ... + p X p
"
Li " gu" gn" nqictkvoq" fg" nc" tc|p" fg" ncu" rtqdcdknkfcfgu." pq" gu" unq" nkpgcn" gp" Z." ukpq" vcodkp"
*fgufg"gn"rwpvq"fg"xkuvc"fg"guvkocekp+"nkpgcn"gp"nqu"rctogvtqu0" Li "ug"nncoc"nqikv."{"fg"csw"
gn"pqodtg"oqfgnq"nqikv0"
Caractersticas del modelo LOGIT
" C"ogfkfc"swg"P"xc"fg"2"c"3"*gu"fgekt."c"ogfkfc"swg"\"xctc"fg""c"-."gn"nqikv"L"xc"
fg" " c" -0" Gu" fgekt." cwpswg" ncu" rtqdcdknkfcfgu" *rqt" pgegukfcf+" ug" gpewgpvtcp"
gpvtg"2"{"3."nqu"nqikv"pq"guvp"ceqvcfqu"gp"guc"hqtoc0"
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" Cwpswg"L gu"nkpgcn"gp"X."ncu"rtqdcdknkfcfgu"gp"u"okuocu"pq"nq"uqp0"
" Gn" oqfgnq" rwgfg" vgpgt" wpc" q" ou" xctkcdngu" tgitguqtcu." vcn" eqoq" kpfkswg" nc" vgqtc"
uwd{cegpvg0"
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" Uk" L." gn" nqikv." gu" rqukvkxq." ukipkhkec" swg" ewcpfq" ug" kpetgogpvc" gn" xcnqt" fg" nc*u+"
tgitguqtc*u+."cwogpvcp"ncu"rqukdknkfcfgu"fg"swg"nc"tgitgucfc"ugc"kiwcn"c"3"*nq"ewcn"
kpfkec" swg" uwegfgt" cniq" fg" kpvgtu+0" Uk" L" gu" pgicvkxq." ncu" rqukdknkfcfgu" fg" swg" nc"
tgitgucfc"kiwcng"c"3"fkuokpw{gp"eqphqtog"ug"kpetgogpvc"gn"xcnqt"fg"Z0"
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" Nc"kpvgtrtgvcekp"fgn"oqfgnq"fcfq"gp"Z"gu"nc"ukiwkgpvg<"nc"rgpfkgpvg"dgvcfi."okfg"gn"
ecodkq"gp"L qecukqpcfq"rqt"wp"ecodkq"wpkvctkq"gp"X."gu"fgekt."fkeg"eoq"ecodkc"gn"
nqictkvoq" fg" ncu" rqukdknkfcfgu" gp" hcxqt" fg" swg" qewttc" gn" gxgpvq" c" ogfkfc" swg" nc"
tgitguqtc" Z" ecodkc" gp" wpc" wpkfcf0" Gn" kpvgtegrvqfi" gu" gn" xcnqt" fgn" nqictkvoq" fg" ncu"
rqukdknkfcfgu"gp"hcxqt"fg"swg"qewttc"wp"gxgpvq"uk"gn"xcnqt"fg"ncu"tgitguqtcu"gu"egtq0"
Cn"kiwcn"swg"nc"oc{qtc"fg"ncu"kpvgtrtgvcekqpgu"fg"nqu"kpvgtegrvqu."guvc"kpvgtrtgvcekp"
rwgfg"pq"vgpgt"ukipkhkecfq"hukeq"cniwpq0"
"
" Rqt" glgornq<" eqp" wp" pkxgn" fgvgtokpcfq" fg" kpitguq." Z,." uk" ug" fgugc" guvkoct" nc"
rtqdcdknkfcf"okuoc"fg"vgpgt"wpc"ecuc"rtqrkc."{"pq"ncu"rqukdknkfcfgu"gp"hcxqt"fg"vgpgt"
wpc" ecuc" rtqrkc." gu" rqukdng" jcegtnc" fktgevcogpvg" c" rctvkt" fg" nc" ukiwkgpvg" gewcekp.""
wpc"xg|"swg"ug"fkurqpic"fg"ncu"guvkocekqpgu"fg"ncu"dgvcu0"
eZ
Pi =
1 + eZ
+ X + X +...+ p X p
e0 1 1 2 2
Pi = + X + X +...+ p X p
1+ e 0 1 1 2 2
Bondad de ajuste del modelo (Pseudo R2 o McFadden R2)
"
Gn"pseudo"T/ewcftcfq"xctc"gpvtg"2"{"30"Uk"nc"rtqdcdknkfcf"rtqpquvkecfc"gu"oc{qt"swg"207."
ug" encukhkec" eqoq" uk" hwgug" 3." rgtq" uk" gu" ogpqt" swg" fkejq" xcnqt." ug" eqpukfgtc" 20" Kpfkec" nc"
dqpfcf" fg" clwuvg" fgn" oqfgnq" c" nqu" fcvqu0" Cwpswg" pq" vkgpg" nc" kpogfkcvg|" fg" kpvgtrtgvcekp"
fgn" T4" fg" nc" tgitgukp" nkpgcn." swg" fktgevcogpvg" kpfkec" sw" rtqrqtekp" fg" nc" xctkcp|c" fg" nc"
xctkcdng" fgrgpfkgpvg" gu" gzrnkecfq" rqt" gn" oqfgnq." gu" wpc" crtqzkocekp" dcucfc" gp" wpc"
"
eqorctcekp"fg"nc"xgtqukoknkvwf"fgn"oqfgnq"unq"eqp"nc"eqpuvcpvg L0 ."eqp"nc"xgtqukoknkvwf"fgn"
oqfgnq"eqp"vqfqu"nqu"rctogvtqu"guvkocfqu L F ."ew{c"htownc"gu"nc"ukiwkgpvg0""
"
lnLF
PseudoR 2 = 1 "
lnL0
"
Gn"pseudo"T4"clwuvcfq"eqttkig"gn"jgejq"fg"swg"gn"rtkogtq"cwogpvc"ctvkhkekcnogpvg"cn"ccfkt"
pwgxcu" xctkcdngu." tguvcpfq" cn" pwogtcfqt" fgn" pseudo R2 gn" pogtq" fg" rctogvtqu"
*eqghkekgpvgu" ou" nc" eqpuvcpvg+" fgn" oqfgnq0" Rqt" guvc" tc|p." eqpukfgtct" gn" clwuvcfq" rctc" gn"
cpnkuku"gu"rtghgtkdng"cn"guvpfct0"
2 lnLF ( k + 1)
PseudoRadj = 1 "
lnL0
"
Significancia global del modelo (chi cuadrado y prob.)
"
Nqu"nqictkvoqu"fg"nc"xgtqukoknkvwf"fgn"oqfgnq"eqorngvq"( L F : Log-Lik Full Model) {"fg"cswgnnc"
fgn" oqfgnq" swg" unq" kpenw{g" nc" eqpuvcpvg" ( L0 : Log-Lik Intercept Only)0" Guvqu" uqp" nqu"
tguwnvcfqu" rtkpekrcngu" fgn" rtqeguq" fg" guvkocekp" rqt" ozkoc" xgtqukoknkvwf0" Nc" hwpekp" fg"
xgtqukoknkvwf" ug" rwgfg" gpvgpfgt" eqoq" nc" rtqdcdknkfcf" fg" swg" nqu" fcvqu" qdugtxcfqu" gp" nc"
owguvtc" jc{cp" ukfq" igpgtcfqu" rqt" wpqu" fgvgtokpcfqu" eqghkekgpvgu0" Rqt" vcpvq." nc"
xgtqukoknkvwf"fgn"oqfgnq"unq"eqp"nc"eqpuvcpvg"gu"wpc"ogfkfc"fg"nc"rtqdcdknkfcf"fg"swg"nqu"
fcvqu" qdugtxcfqu" jc{cp" ukfq" igpgtcfqu" rqt" wp" oqfgnq" nqiuvkeq" gp" gn" swg" vqfqu" nqu"
eqghkekgpvgu" xcngp" egtq" *2+" q." nq" swg" gu" nq" okuoq." wp" oqfgnq" gp" gn" swg" ncu" xctkcdngu"
kpfgrgpfkgpvgu" pq" vkgpgp" pkpip" ghgevq" korqtvcpvg" uqdtg" nc" xctkcdng" fgrgpfkgpvg0" Rqt" gn"
eqpvtctkq."nc"xgtqukoknkvwf"fgn"oqfgnq"eqorngvq"gu"wpc"ogfkfc"fg"nc"rtqdcdknkfcf"fg"swg"nqu"
fcvqu" jc{cp" ukfq" igpgtcfqu" rqt" wp" oqfgnq" nqiuvkeq" gp" gn" swg" vqfqu" nqu" eqghkekgpvgu" uqp"
korqtvcpvgu<" q" ugc." gp" gn" swg" vqfcu" ncu" xctkcdngu" kpfgrgpfkgpvgu" vkgpgp" ghgevq" uqdtg" nc"
fgrgpfkgpvg0"Nc"eqorctcekp"fg"codcu"tc|qpgu"fg"xgtqukoknkvwf"*nc"fgn"oqfgnq"unq"eqp"nc"
eqpuvcpvg" {" nc" fgn" oqfgnq" eqorngvq+" rgtokvg" eqortqdct" uk" tgcnogpvg" ncu" xctkcdngu"
kpfgrgpfkgpvgu"vkgpgp"ghgevq"uqdtg"nc"fgrgpfkgpvg0"Uk"nc"xgtqukoknkvwf"fgn"oqfgnq"eqorngvq"
gu"ukipkhkecvkxcogpvg"oc{qt"swg"nc"fgn"oqfgnq"unq"eqp"nc"eqpuvcpvg."rwgfg"fgektug"swg"nq"
ou" rtqdcdng" gu" swg" ncu" xctkcdngu" kpfgrgpfkgpvgu" fgn" oqfgnq" vgpicp" tgcnogpvg" ghgevq"
uqdtg"nc"xctkcdng"fgrgpfkgpvg0"
"
Nc" jkrvguku" pwnc" gu" swg" vqfqu" nqu" eqghkekgpvgu" gzegrvq" nc" eqpuvcpvg" uqp" kiwcngu" c" 2." {" nc"
jkrvguku" cnvgtpcvkxc" *swg" ug" cegrvc" uk" pq" rwgfg" cegrvctug" nc" pwnc+" gu"swg" nqu"eqghkekgpvgu"
uqp"ukipkhkecvkxcogpvg"fkuvkpvqu"fg"20"Nc"htownc"gzcevc"fg"guvc"rtwgdc"fg"jkrvguku"gu<"
"
LR = 2lnLF 2lnL0
"
"
Nc" rtqdcdknkfcf" ejk" ewcftcfq" cuqekcfc" cn" xcnqt" fg" nc" rtwgdc" {" c" uwu" itcfqu" fg" nkdgtvcf"
eqttqdqtc" nc" rtwgdc" cpvgtkqt." rtwgdc" uk" gzkuvg" q" pq" cn" ogpqu" wpq" fg" nqu" eqghkekgpvgu" swg"
crctgegp"gp"gn"oqfgnq"nqiuvkeq"guvkocfq"ukipkhkecvkxcogpvg"fkuvkpvq"fg"20"
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ESTIMACIN LOGIT (APLICACIN)
Ug"vkgpgp"fcvqu"fg"nc"Gpewguvc"Pcekqpcn"fg"Ucnwf"Hcoknkct""GPFGU"*4237+"rctc"gn"Rgt."fg"
ncu" ewcngu" ug" rtgvgpfg" tgcnk|ct" wp" vtcdclq" fg" kpxguvkicekp" uqdtg" xkqngpekc" fqouvkec"
gphqecfc"gp"xkqngpekc"hukec."eqp"nc"hkpcnkfcf"fg"hqtownct"rqnvkecu"rdnkecu0"Ncu"xctkcdngu"gp"
guvwfkq"uqp"ncu"ukiwkgpvgu<"
"
Variable dependiente:
" Xkqngpekc"hukec"
Variables independientes:
" Ugzq"fgn"lghg"fg"jqict"*3<"jqodtg+"
" Gfcf"fg"nc"owlgt"
" Gfcf"fg"nc"rctglc"ocuewnkpc"
" Guvcfq"ekxkn"*3<"ecucfc+"
" Pogtq"fg"jklqu"ogpqtgu"fg"ekpeq"cqu"
" Itcfq"fg"gfwecekp"cnecp|cfq"fg"nc"owlgt"
2<"Ukp"gfwecekp"
3<"Rtkoctkc"
4<"Ugewpfctkc"
5<"Uwrgtkqt"
" Itcfq"fg"gfwecekp"cnecp|cfq"fg"nc"rctglc"
2<"Ukp"gfwecekp"
3<"Rtkoctkc"
4<"Ugewpfctkc"
5<"Uwrgtkqt"
" Fgekukp"fg"hgtvknkfcf"*3<"pq"ou"jklqu+"
" Ukvwcekp"ncdqtcn"fg"nc"owlgt"*3<"uk"vtcdclc+"
" Eqpuwoq"fg"dgdkfcu"cneqjnkecu"fg"nc"rctglc"*3<"uk"eqpuwog"D0C0+"
" Gvpkekfcf"*3<"Gurcqn."3<"C{octc"{"3<"Swgejwc+"
" Vgpgpekc"fg"Vgngxkukp"*3<"uk"vkgpg+"
Nqu"fcvqu"ug"gpewgpvtcp"gp"wp"ctejkxq"Gzegn"{"Uvcvc."nqu"swg"{c"hwgtqp"eqfkhkecfqu"{"
ukuvgocvk|cfqu"fg"nc"gpewguvc"fgn"KPGK0"
"
Resultados de la estimacin LOGIT
logit vfisica sexjefho edad edadpareja casada hijosmenor nivestu edupareja

fernomas sitlaboral parconbeba etniespa etniaymara etniquechua telev
Iteration 0: log likelihood = -13803.562

Logistic regression Number of obs = 22,410

LR chi2(14) = 1308.90
Prob > chi2 = 0.0000
Log likelihood = -13149.111 Pseudo R2 = 0.0474
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
vfisica | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
sexjefho | -.1142876 .0426656 -2.68 0.007 -.1979106 -.0306646
edad | .0316431 .0022785 13.89 0.000 .0271773 .036109
edadpareja | -.0216291 .0012589 -17.18 0.000 -.0240965 -.0191617
casada | -.091891 .0367569 -2.50 0.012 -.1639332 -.0198488
hijosmenor | -.0520437 .0224031 -2.32 0.020 -.0959531 -.0081344
nivestu | -.148179 .0237952 -6.23 0.000 -.1948166 -.1015413
edupareja | -.1243138 .0292733 -4.25 0.000 -.1816885 -.0669392
fernomas | .2039329 .031654 6.44 0.000 .1418922 .2659737
sitlaboral | .2391314 .0324332 7.37 0.000 .1755634 .3026993
parconbeba | .6576488 .0407665 16.13 0.000 .5777479 .7375497
etniespa | .5495303 .151219 3.63 0.000 .2531466 .845914
etniaymara | .6637632 .2522104 2.63 0.008 .1694399 1.158086
etniquechua | .6197602 .1577254 3.93 0.000 .3106241 .9288964
telev | .2741818 .0462494 5.93 0.000 .1835347 .3648289
_cons | -2.056722 .1806922 -11.38 0.000 -2.410872 -1.702572
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"
Tguwnvcfqu"cfkekqpcn"wvknk|cpfq"nc"kpuvtweekp"hkvuvcv0"
"
fitstat
Measures of Fit for logit of vfisica
Log-Lik Intercept Only: -13803.562 Log-Lik Full Model: -13149.111

D(22395): 26298.221 LR(14): 1308.903
Prob > LR: 0.000
McFadden's R2: 0.047 McFadden's Adj R2: 0.046
Maximum Likelihood R2: 0.057 Cragg & Uhler's R2: 0.080
McKelvey and Zavoina's R2: 0.081 Efron's R2: 0.059
Variance of y*: 3.580 Variance of error: 3.290
Count R2: 0.706 Adj Count R2: 0.041
AIC: 1.175 AIC*n: 26328.221
BIC: -198038.374 BIC': -1168.662
Ecuacin estimada
e2.050.11sexjefho +0.03edad 0.02edadpareja 0.09casada +...+0.27telev

Pi =
1 + e2.050.11sexjefho+ 0.03edad 0.02edadpareja 0.09casada +...+ 0.27telev
"
"
"
Kpi0"Jgpt{"Cokgn"Eqpfqtk"Rqtvknnq" Rikpc":"
"
Nc"vcdnc"fg"encukhkecekp"fg"nc"tgitgukp"nqiuvkec"ug"owguvtc"c"eqpvkpwcekp0"
estat classification
Logistic model for vfisica
-------- True --------

Classified | D ~D | Total
-----------+--------------------------+-----------
+ | 861 583 | 1444
- | 5999 14967 | 20966
-----------+--------------------------+-----------
Total | 6860 15550 | 22410
Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5

True D defined as vfisica != 0
--------------------------------------------------
Sensitivity Pr( +| D) 12.55%
Specificity Pr( -|~D) 96.25%
Positive predictive value Pr( D| +) 59.63%
Negative predictive value Pr(~D| -) 71.39%
--------------------------------------------------
False + rate for true ~D Pr( +|~D) 3.75%
False - rate for true D Pr( -| D) 87.45%
False + rate for classified + Pr(~D| +) 40.37%
False - rate for classified - Pr( D| -) 28.61%
--------------------------------------------------
Correctly classified 70.63%
--------------------------------------------------
Interpretacin de la estimacin logit:

"
Rctogvtqu"{"ukipqu"
"
" Gn" eqghkekgpvg" fg" ugzq" fgn" lghg" fg" jqict" gu" kiwcn" c" /2033" ukipkhkec" swg." okgpvtcu" ncu"
fgou" xctkcdngu" ug" ocpvgpicp" eqpuvcpvgu." uk" gn" lghg" fg" jqict" gu" jqodtg." gp"
rtqogfkq."gn"nqikv"guvkocfq"fkuokpw{g"ecuk"/2033"wpkfcfgu."nq"ewcn"kpfkec"wpc"tgncekp"
pgicvkxc"gpvtg"codqu0"
"
" Gn"eqghkekgpvg"fg"gfcf"gu"kiwcn"c"2025"ukipkhkec"swg."okgpvtcu"ncu"fgou"xctkcdngu"ug"
ocpvgpicp" eqpuvcpvgu." uk" nc" gfcf" ug" kpetgogpvc" gp" wpc" wpkfcf" *wp" cq+." gp"
rtqogfkq."gn"nqikv"guvkocfq"cwogpvc"ecuk"2025"wpkfcfgu."nq"ewcn"kpfkec"wpc"tgncekp"
rqukvkxc"gpvtg"codqu0"
"
" Gn" eqghkekgpvg" fg" pkxgn" fg" guvwfkqu" fg" nc" owlgt" gu" kiwcn" c" /2036:3" ukipkhkec" swg."
okgpvtcu" ncu" fgou" xctkcdngu" ug" ocpvgpicp" eqpuvcpvgu." uk" gn" pkxgn" fg" guvwfkqu" ug"
kpetgogpvc"gp"wp"pkxgn."gp"rtqogfkq."gn"nqikv"guvkocfq"fkuokpw{g"ecuk"2025"wpkfcfgu."
nq"ewcn"kpfkec"wpc"tgncekp"pgicvkxc"gpvtg"codqu0"
"
Dqpfcf"fg"clwuvg"*Rugwfq"T4"q"OeHcffgp"T4+"
"
Nc" rtqrqtekp" fg" nc" xctkcp|c" fg" nc" xctkcdng" fgrgpfkgpvg" gu" gzrnkecfq" gp" wp" 609'" rqt" ncu"
xctkcdngu"kpfgrgpfkgpvgu"eqpukfgtcfcu"gp"gn"oqfgnq0"
"
Lwpvq" eqp" gn" rugwfq" T4" guvpfct" crctgeg" gn" clwuvcfq" *608'+." swg" ukorngogpvg" eqttkig" gn"
jgejq" fg" swg" gn" rtkogtq" cwogpvc" ctvkhkekcnogpvg" cn" ccfkt" pwgxcu" xctkcdngu." tguvcpfq" cn"
pwogtcfqt" fgn" rugwfq" T4" gn" pogtq" fg" rctogvtqu" *eqghkekgpvgu" ou" nc" eqpuvcpvg+" fgn"
oqfgnq0"
Kpi0"Jgpt{"Cokgn"Eqpfqtk"Rqtvknnq" Rikpc";"
"
Ukipkhkecpekc"inqdcn"*Tc|p"fg"xgtqukoknkvwf""NT"{"rtqd0+"
"
Rctc"36"itcfqu"fg"nkdgtvcf"*eqttgurqpfgp"cn"pogtq"fg"xctkcdngu"gzrnkecvkxcu+"{"wp"pkxgn"fg"
ukipkhkecpekc"fg"7'."nc"ejk"ewcftcfc"fg"vcdncu"*352:0;2+"gu"ogpqt"c"nc"ecnewncfc="eqp"wpc"
rtqdcdknkfcf"fg"gttqt"fg"202222'"*202222>2027+"ug"tgejc|c"nc"jkrvguku"pwnc."rqt"vcpvq<"Gp"
eqplwpvq."ncu"36"xctkcdngu"uqp"guvcfuvkecogpvg"ukipkhkecvkxcu0"
"
Ukipkhkecpekc"kpfkxkfwcn"*Rtwgdc"\+"
"
" Nc"rtqdcdknkfcf"gzcevc"rctc"gn"rctogvtq"ugzq"fgn"lghg"fg"jqict"gu"ogpqt"cn"pkxgn"fg"
ukipkhkecpekc" *7'+." rqt" vcpvq." guvg" rctogvtq" gu" guvcfuvkecogpvg" ukipkhkecvkxq" *gu"
fkhgtgpvg"fg"egtq+0"
"
" Nc" rtqdcdknkfcf" gzcevc" rctc" gn" rctogvtq" gfcf" gu" ogpqt" cn" pkxgn" fg" ukipkhkecpekc"
*7'+." rqt" vcpvq." guvg" rctogvtq" gu" guvcfuvkecogpvg" ukipkhkecvkxq" *gu" fkhgtgpvg" fg"
egtq+0"
"
" Nc" rtqdcdknkfcf" gzcevc" rctc" gn" rctogvtq" gfcf" fg" nc" rctglc" gu" ogpqt" cn" pkxgn" fg"
"
" Nc" rtqdcdknkfcf" gzcevc" rctc" gn" rctogvtq" guvcfq" ekxkn<" ecucfc" gu" ogpqt" cn" pkxgn" fg"
"
" ["cu"uwegukxcogpvg."vqfcu"ncu"xctkcdngu"gzrnkecvkxcu"tguwnvctqp"ugt"guvcfuvkecogpvg"
ukipkhkecvkxcu"c"wp"pkxgn"fg"ukipkhkecpekc"fgn"7'0"
"
Eqwpv"T4"
"
Okfg"gn"pogtq"fg"ecuqu"gp"nqu"swg"nc"rtgfkeekp"eqkpekfg"eqp"nc"tgcnkfcf"gp"ecfc"wpc"fg"
nqu" fqu" rqukdngu" vkrqu" fg" tguwnvcfqu" *-~F+" {" */~F+=" gn" oqfgnq" cekgtvc" gp" gn" 92.85'" fg" nqu"
ecuqu."nq"swg"rctgeg"wp"rqtegpvclg"dcuvcpvg"cnvq"fg"cekgtvq0"Fgocukcfq"cnvq."fg"jgejq0"Gn"
Eqwpv" T4" rwgfg" fct" wpc" kortgukp" gzegukxc" fg" ecrcekfcf" rtgfkevkxc" fgn" oqfgnq" rqt" wpc"
tc|p" ow{" ukorng<" fcfq" swg" nqu" xcnqtgu" swg" rwgfg" vqoct" nc" xctkcdng" fgrgpfkgpvg" gp" wp"
oqfgnq" nqiuvkeq" uqp" unq" fqu" *2" q" 3+." ug" rwgfg" cegtvct" gp" ou" fgn" 72'" fg" nqu" ecuqu"
ukorngogpvg"eqikgpfq"vqfqu"nqu"ecuqu"fg"nc"ecvgiqtc"swg"vgpic"ou"ecuqu0"
"
Gp" vqfqu" cswgnnqu" ecuqu" gp" nqu" swg" gn" oqfgnq" rtgfkic" ou" fg" 2.7" fg" rtqdcdknkfcf" fg"
qewttgpekc."nc"rtgfkeekp"ugt"swg"qewttc"*-"Encuukhkgf+="{"gp"vqfqu"nqu"ecuqu"gp"nqu"swg"gn"
oqfgnq"f"wpc"rtqdcdknkfcf"kphgtkqt"c"2.7."ug"rtqpquvkect"swg"pq"uwegfgt"*/"Encuukhkgf+0"
"
"
PROBABILIDADES PARTICULARES
Caso 1
"
Ug"rtgvgpfg"ecnewnct"nc"rtqdcdknkfcf"fg"swg"wpc"owlgt"gzrgtkogpvg"xkqngpekc"fqouvkec"rctc"
ncu"ectcevgtuvkecu"swg"ug"rtgugpvcp"gp"ncu"xctkcdngu"kpfgrgpfkgpvgu"q"tgitguqtcu"oquvtcfcu"
gp"nc"ukiwkgpvg"vcdnc"*xcnqtgu"Zk+0"
"
Tabla 3
Probabilidades de ocurrencia para valores especficos de las regresoras.
xhkukec" Eqgh0"*nqikv+" Xcnqtgu"Zk" \k"

ugzlghjq" /203364:: 3 /203364::
gfcf" 20253865 57 3032972;
gfcfrctglc" /2024384; 52 /2086::95
ecucfc" /202;3:;3 3 /202;3:;3
jklquogpqt" /20274266 6 /2042:397
pkxguvw" /2036:39; 4 /204;857:
gfwrctglc" /20346536 3 /20346536
hgtpqocu" 20425;55 3 20425;55
ukvncdqtcn" 2045;353 3 2045;353
rcteqpdgdc" 2087986; 3 2087986;
gvpkgurc" 2076;752 2 2
gvpkc{octc" 20885985 3 20885985
gvpkswgejwc" 2083;982 2 2
vgngx" 204963:4 3 204963:4
aeqpu" /40278944 3 /40278944
Uwoc" -0.394454
Tggornc|cpfq"fcvqu"gp"gn"ukiwkgpvg"oqfgnq"nqikv"
e2.050.11sexjefho +0.03edad 0.02edadpareja 0.09casada +...+0.27telev

Pi =
1 + e2.050.11sexjefho+ 0.03edad 0.02edadpareja 0.09casada +...+ 0.27telev
Ug"vkgpg<"
e0.394454
Pi = = 0.4026457
1 + e0.394454 "
Nc"rtqdcdknkfcf"gzrgtkogpvcfc"fg"xkqngpekc"hukec"rctc"ncu"ectcevgtuvkecu"fg"ncu"tgitguqtcu"
oquvtcfcu"gp"nc"vcdnc"gu"fg"62048'0"
"
Gn" cpvgtkqt" ug" nqit" tgcnk|cpfq" wp" enewnq" ocpwcn" uqdtg" nc" gewcekp" guvkocfc." gp" ecodkq."
guvq"okuoq"ug"rwgfg"nqitct"ogfkcpvg"ncu"kpuvtweekqpgu"fgn"uvcvc"*wvknk|cpfq"margins+0"
margins, at(sexjefho=(1) edad=(35) edadpareja=(30) casada=(1)
hijosmenor=(4) nivestu=(2) edupareja=(1) fernomas=(1) sitlaboral=(1)
parconbeba=(1) etniespa=(0) etniaymara=(1) etniquechua=(0) telev=(1))
Adjusted predictions Number of obs = 22,410

Model VCE : OIM
Expression : Pr(vfisica), predict()

at : sexjefho = 1
edad = 35
edadpareja = 30
casada = 1
"
hijosmenor = 4
nivestu = 2
edupareja = 1
fernomas = 1
sitlaboral = 1
parconbeba = 1
etniespa = 0
etniaymara = 1
etniquechua = 0
telev = 1
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Delta-method
| Margin Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_cons | .4026457 .0531409 7.58 0.000 .2984913 .5068
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gp" wp" jqict" fqpfg" gn" lghg" fg" hcoknkc" gu" jqodtg." nc" gfcf" fg" nc" owlgt" fg" 57." nc" gfcf" fg" nc"
rctglc"52."gu"ecucfc."uk"vkgpg"6"jklqu"ogpqtgu"fg"7"cqu."uk"gn"pkxgn"fg"guvwfkqu"fg"nc"owlgt"
gu" ugewpfctkc" {" gn" pkxgn" fg" guvwfkqu" fgn" jqodtg" gu" rtkoctkc.." vkgpg" vgngxkukp." nc"
rtqdcdknkfcf"fg"swg"nc"owlgt"gzrgtkogpvg"xkqngpekc"hukec"gu"fg"62048'0"
Caso 2
C"eqpvkpwcekp"ug"owguvtcp"nqu"tguogpgu"fg"ncu"xctkcdngu"gzrnkecvkxcu"q"tgitguqtcu0"
summarize sexjefho edad edadpareja casada hijosmenor nivestu edupareja

if(!missing(vfisica) & !missing(telev) & !missing(edadpareja))
Variable | Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max

-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
sexjefho | 22,410 .8135207 .3895016 0 1
edad | 22,410 32.32892 7.934424 15 49
edadpareja | 22,410 31.87354 14.32717 0 95
casada | 22,410 .2883088 .4529856 0 1
hijosmenor | 22,410 1.070549 .7134824 0 6
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
nivestu | 22,410 1.950245 .7911872 0 3
edupareja | 22,410 1.904864 .6111249 0 3
fernomas | 22,410 .5400714 .4984028 0 1
sitlaboral | 22,410 .6204819 .4852779 0 1
parconbeba | 22,410 .789469 .4076949 0 1
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
etniespa | 22,410 .9072289 .2901178 0 1
etniaymara | 22,410 .0049085 .0698903 0 1
etniquechua | 22,410 .0740741 .2618972 0 1
telev | 22,410 .8458278 .3611218 0 1
"
Nwgiq"fg"nc"guvkocekp"nqikv"ug"owguvtc"nc"rtqdcdknkfcf"swg"wpc"owlgt"gzrgtkogpvg"xkqngpekc"
hukec"rctc"ewcpfq"nqu"xcnqtgu"ogfkqu"fg"ncu"xctkcdngu"gzrnkecvkxcu0"
"
margins, atmeans
Model VCE : OIM

at : sexjefho = .8135207 (mean)
edad = 32.32892 (mean)
edadpareja = 31.87354 (mean)
casada = .2883088 (mean)
"
hijosmenor = 1.070549 (mean)
nivestu = 1.950245 (mean)
edupareja = 1.904864 (mean)
fernomas = .5400714 (mean)
sitlaboral = .6204819 (mean)
parconbeba = .789469 (mean)
etniespa = .9072289 (mean)
etniaymara = .0049085 (mean)
etniquechua = .0740741 (mean)
telev = .8458278 (mean)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Delta-method
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_cons | .2959278 .0031638 93.53 0.000 .2897268 .3021287
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gp"wp"jqict"ew{q"xcnqt"fg"ncu"xctkcdngu"gzrnkecvkxcu"gu"uw"ogfkc."nc"rtqdcdknkfcf"fg"swg"wpc"
owlgt"gzrgtkogpvg"xkqngpekc"hukec"gu"fg"4;07;'0"
Caso 3
Rctc"ewcvtq"xctkcdngu"eqp"xcnqtgu"gurgehkequ"{"rctc"nqu"fgou"ug"eqpukfgtcp"ncu"ogfkcu0"
margins, at(sexjefho=(0) edad=(20) edadpareja=(22) casada=(0)) atmeans post

Model VCE : OIM

at : sexjefho = 0
edad = 20
edadpareja = 22
casada = 0
telev = .8458278 (mean)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Delta-method
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_cons | .2841707 .009347 30.40 0.000 .2658508 .3024905
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Wvknk|cpfq"nc"kpuvtweekp"rtejcpig"ug"vkgpg<"
"
prchange, x(sexjefho=0 edad=20 edadpareja=22 casada=0) rest(mean)
logit: Changes in Probabilities for vfisica
min->max 0->1 -+1/2 -+sd/2 MargEfct

sexjefho -0.0227 -0.0227 -0.0232 -0.0091 -0.0232
edad 0.2453 0.0046 0.0064 0.0510 0.0064
edadpareja -0.3142 -0.0051 -0.0044 -0.0630 -0.0044
casada -0.0183 -0.0183 -0.0187 -0.0085 -0.0187
hijosmenor -0.0607 -0.0107 -0.0106 -0.0076 -0.0106
nivestu -0.0928 -0.0327 -0.0301 -0.0238 -0.0301
edupareja -0.0774 -0.0271 -0.0253 -0.0155 -0.0253
"
fernomas 0.0413 0.0413 0.0415 0.0207 0.0415
sitlaboral 0.0480 0.0480 0.0486 0.0236 0.0486
parconbeba 0.1221 0.1221 0.1332 0.0545 0.1338
etniespa 0.1004 0.1004 0.1115 0.0324 0.1118
etniaymara 0.1510 0.1510 0.1345 0.0094 0.1350
etniquechua 0.1385 0.1385 0.1256 0.0330 0.1261
telev 0.0534 0.0534 0.0557 0.0201 0.0558
No Si
Pr(y|x) 0.7158 0.2842
sexjefho edad edadpareja casada hijosmenor

x= 0 20 22 0 1.07055
sd_x= .389502 7.93442 14.3272 .452986 .713482
nivestu edupareja fernomas sitlaboral parconbeba

x= 1.95025 1.90486 .540071 .620482 .789469
sd_x= .791187 .611125 .498403 .485278 .407695
etniespa etniaymara etniquechua telev

x= .907229 .004909 .074074 .845828
sd_x= .290118 .06989 .261897 .361122
"
Nc"rtqdcdknkfcf"swg"wpc"owlgt"gzrgtkogpvg"xkqngpekc"hukec"rctc"ncu"ectcevgtuvkecu"fcfcu"gu"
fg"4:063'0"
"
Caso 4
Ukoknct"cn"ecuq"cpvgtkqt"eqp"nc"fkhgtgpekc"swg"cjqtc"pq"ug"eqpukfgtc"nc"ogfkc"rctc"ncu"fgou"
xctkcdngu0"
margins, at(sexjefho=(0) edad=(20) edadpareja=(22) casada=(0))

Predictive margins Number of obs = 22,410
Model VCE : OIM

at : sexjefho = 0
edad = 20
edadpareja = 22
casada = 0
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Delta-method
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_cons | .2900701 .0092566 31.34 0.000 .2719274 .3082127
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Caso 5
Cpcnk|cpfq"gn"ghgevq"swg"vkgpg"gn"ipgtq"rctc"lghg"fg"jqict"uqdtg"gn"vkrq"fg"xkqngpekc"hukec0"
margins, at(sexjefho=(0 1) edad=(20) edadpareja=(22) casada=(0))

Model VCE : OIM
1._at : sexjefho = 0
edad = 20
edadpareja = 22
casada = 0
"
edad = 20
edadpareja = 22
casada = 0
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Delta-method
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_at |
1 | .2900701 .0092566 31.34 0.000 .2719274 .3082127
2 | .2676457 .0060182 44.47 0.000 .2558502 .2794412
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Eqpukfgtcpfq"ncu"fgou"xctkcdngu"*hklcu"q"pq+."gn"jgejq"swg"wpc"owlgt"ugc"gn"lghg"fg"jqict."
vgpft"wpc"rtqdcdknkfcf"fg"4;'"fg"gzrgtkogpvct"xkqngpekc"hukec."guvq"ug"tgfweg"c"48098'"uk"
gn"lghg"fg"jqict"gu"jqodtg0"
"
C"eqpvkpwcekp"ug"qdugtxc"nqu"ghgevqu"fgn"pkxgn"fg"gfwecekp"fg"nc"owlgt"uqdtg"guvg"vkrq"fg"
xkqngpekc"rctc"ncu"ectcevgtuvkecu"fcfcu0"
"
margins, at(sexjefho=(1) nivestu=(0 1 2 3) edupareja=(2) edad=(25)
edadpareja=(30) casada=(0))
Model VCE : OIM
edad = 25
edadpareja = 30
casada = 0
nivestu = 0
edupareja = 2
edad = 25
edadpareja = 30
casada = 0
nivestu = 1
edupareja = 2
edad = 25
edadpareja = 30
casada = 0
nivestu = 2
edupareja = 2
edad = 25
edadpareja = 30
casada = 0
nivestu = 3
edupareja = 2
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Delta-method
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_at |
1 | .3200826 .0113923 28.10 0.000 .2977541 .342411
2 | .2893693 .0068715 42.11 0.000 .2759014 .3028372
3 | .2604304 .0046039 56.57 0.000 .251407 .2694538
4 | .2333937 .0059736 39.07 0.000 .2216855 .2451018
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"
marginsplot, yline(0)
Rtgfkevkxg"Octikpu"ykvj";7'"EKu
057
05
Rt*Xhkukec+
047
04
Ukp"gfwecekp Rtkoctkc Ugewpfctkc Uwrgtkqt

Wnvkoq"pkxgn"fg"guvwfkqu
"
C" ogfkfc" swg" cwogpvc" gn" pkxgn" gfwecvkxq" fg" nc" owlgt." nc" rtqdcdknkfcf" fg" gzrgtkogpvct"
xkqngpekc"hukec"fkuokpw{g."fg"54'"*ukp"pkxgn+"c"45055'"*eqp"guvwfkqu"fg"pkxgn"uwrgtkqt+0"
C"eqpvkpwcekp"ug"qdugtxc"nqu"ghgevqu"fgn"pkxgn"fg"gfwecekp"fg"nc"rctglc"uqdtg"guvg"vkrq"fg"
xkqngpekc"rctc"ncu"ectcevgtuvkecu"fcfcu0"
margins, at(sexjefho=(1) nivestu=(2) edupareja=(0 1 2 3) edad=(25)

edadpareja=(30) casada=(0))
Model VCE : OIM
edad = 25
edadpareja = 30
casada = 0
nivestu = 2
edupareja = 0
edad = 25
edadpareja = 30
casada = 0
nivestu = 2
edupareja = 1
edad = 25
edadpareja = 30
casada = 0
nivestu = 2
edupareja = 2
edad = 25
edadpareja = 30
casada = 0
nivestu = 2
"
edupareja = 3
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Delta-method
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_at |
1 | .3100058 .0127919 24.23 0.000 .2849341 .3350775
2 | .2845847 .0072137 39.45 0.000 .2704461 .2987232
3 | .2604304 .0046039 56.57 0.000 .251407 .2694538
4 | .2376158 .0071028 33.45 0.000 .2236945 .2515371
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
C" ogfkfc" swg" cwogpvc" gn" pkxgn" gfwecvkxq" fg" nc" rctglc" *jqodtg+." nc" rtqdcdknkfcf" fg" swg" nc"
owlgt" gzrgtkogpvg" xkqngpekc" hukec" cwogpvc." eqp" nc" fkhgtgpekc" swg" ewcpfq" nc" rctglc" vkgpg"
pkxgn"fg"gfwecekp"uwrgtkqt"uvc"rtqdcdknkfcf"fkuokpw{g"c"44035'0"
Caso 5
Gu" rqukdng" tgcnk|ct" guvkocekqpgu" nqikv" eqp" ukp" oquvtct" tguwnvcfqu" gp" xgpvcpc" eqp" nc"
kpuvtweekp"quietly0"
quietly logit vfisica sexjefho edad edadpareja i.casada hijosmenor

nivestu edupareja i.fernomas sitlaboral parconbeba etniespa
etniaymara etniquechua telev
C"eqpvkpwcekp"ug"qdugtxc"nqu"ghgevqu"fgn"guvcfq"ekxkn"*ecucfc+"{"nc"fgekukp"uqdtg"hgtvknkfcf"
*pq"ou"jklqu+"uqdtg"guvg"vkrq"fg"xkqngpekc"rctc"ncu"ectcevgtuvkecu"fcfcu0"
margins, at(sexjefho=(1) nivestu=(3) edupareja=(3) casada=(0 1)

fernomas=(0 1))
Model VCE : OIM
casada = 0
nivestu = 3
edupareja = 3
fernomas = 0
casada = 0
nivestu = 3
edupareja = 3
fernomas = 1
casada = 1
nivestu = 3
edupareja = 3
fernomas = 0
casada = 1
nivestu = 3
edupareja = 3
fernomas = 1
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Delta-method
"
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_at |
1 | .2308285 .0069186 33.36 0.000 .2172682 .2443887
2 | .2672401 .0077115 34.65 0.000 .2521258 .2823545
3 | .2155671 .0072757 29.63 0.000 .201307 .2298272
4 | .2504056 .0081805 30.61 0.000 .2343722 .266439
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"
Guvqu" okuoqu" tguwnvcfqu" ug" rwgfgp" qdvgpgt" eqp" nc" ukiwkgpvg" kpuvtweekp" *ghgevqu"
kpvgtcevkxqu+0"
margins casada#fernomas, at(sexjefho=(1) nivestu=(3) edupareja=(3))

Model VCE : OIM

at : sexjefho = 1
nivestu = 3
edupareja = 3
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Delta-method
----------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
casada#fernomas |
Otros#Otros | .2308285 .0069186 33.36 0.000 .2172682 .2443887
Otros#Si | .2672401 .0077115 34.65 0.000 .2521258 .2823545
Si#Otros | .2155671 .0072757 29.63 0.000 .201307 .2298272
Si#Si | .2504056 .0081805 30.61 0.000 .2343722 .266439
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Eqorctcekqpgu
" Uk"pq"gu"ecucfc"{"fgekfg"vgpgt"ou"jklqu."nc"rtqdcdknkfcf"fg"gzrgtkogpvct"xkqngpekc"hukec"
gu"45'0"
" Uk" pq" gu" ecucfc" {" fgekfg" pq" vgpgt" ou" jklqu." nc" rtqdcdknkfcf" fg" gzrgtkogpvct" xkqngpekc"
hukec"ug"kpetgogpvc"c"48'0"
" Uk"gu"ecucfc"{"fgekfg"vgpgt"ou"jklqu."nc"rtqdcdknkfcf"fg"gzrgtkogpvct"xkqngpekc"hukec"gu"
43'0"
" Uk"gu"ecucfc"{"fgekfg"pq"vgpgt"ou"jklqu."nc"rtqdcdknkfcf"fg"gzrgtkogpvct"xkqngpekc"hukec"
gu"47'0"
Rtqdcdknkfcf"ozkoc"{"opkoc
" Uk" pq" gu" ecucfc" {" fgekfg" pq" vgpgt" ou" jklqu." nc" rtqdcdknkfcf" fg" gzrgtkogpvct" xkqngpekc"
hukec"ug"kpetgogpvc"c"48'0"
" Uk"gu"ecucfc"{"fgekfg"vgpgt"ou"jklqu."nc"rtqdcdknkfcf"fg"gzrgtkogpvct"xkqngpekc"hukec"gu"
43'0"
Caso 6
quietly logit vfisica sexjefho edad edadpareja casada hijosmenor i.nivestu

edupareja fernomas sitlaboral parconbeba etniespa etniaymara etniquechua
telev
Kpi0"Jgpt{"Cokgn"Eqpfqtk"Rqtvknnq" Rikpc"3:"
"
Ukp"eqpukfgtct"nc"ogfkc"fg"ncu"fgou"tgitguqtcu"
margins nivestu
Model VCE : OIM

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Delta-method
---------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
nivestu |
Sin educacin | .2977484 .0194748 15.29 0.000 .2595785 .3359182
Primaria | .3212115 .0066845 48.05 0.000 .3081101 .3343129
Secundaria | .3289523 .0046936 70.09 0.000 .319753 .3381515
Superior | .2538487 .0060721 41.81 0.000 .2419476 .2657499
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
margins, at(nivestu=(0(1)3))
Model VCE : OIM
1._at : nivestu = 0
2._at : nivestu = 1
3._at : nivestu = 2
4._at : nivestu = 3
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Delta-method
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_at |
1 | .2977484 .0194748 15.29 0.000 .2595785 .3359182
2 | .3212115 .0066845 48.05 0.000 .3081101 .3343129
3 | .3289523 .0046936 70.09 0.000 .319753 .3381515
4 | .2538487 .0060721 41.81 0.000 .2419476 .2657499
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Rtgfkevkxg"Octikpu"qh"pkxguvw"ykvj";7'"EKu
056
054 05
Rt*Xhkukec+
04: 048
046
Ukp"gfwecekp Rtkoctkc Ugewpfctkc Uwrgtkqt

Wnvkoq"pkxgn"fg"guvwfkqu
Kpi0"Jgpt{"Cokgn"Eqpfqtk"Rqtvknnq" Rikpc"3;"
"
Caso 7
quietly logit vfisica sexjefho edad edadpareja casada hijosmenor

nivestu edupareja fernomas sitlaboral parconbeba etniespa etniaymara
etniquechua telev
margins, at(sexjefho=(1) nivestu=(3) edupareja=(3) edad=(20(5)80))
Predictive margins Number of obs =

22,410
Model VCE : OIM
edad = 20
nivestu = 3
edupareja = 3
edad = 25
nivestu = 3
edupareja = 3
edad = 30
nivestu = 3
edupareja = 3
edad = 35
nivestu = 3
edupareja = 3
edad = 55
nivestu = 3
edupareja = 3
edad = 60
nivestu = 3
edupareja = 3
edad = 65
nivestu = 3
edupareja = 3
edad = 70
nivestu = 3
"
edupareja = 3
edad = 75
nivestu = 3
edupareja = 3
edad = 80
nivestu = 3
edupareja = 3
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Delta-method
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_at |
1 | .1825395 .0061147 29.85 0.000 .1705549 .1945241
2 | .2064295 .0058971 35.01 0.000 .1948714 .2179876
3 | .2324796 .0060567 38.38 0.000 .2206086 .2443506
4 | .260657 .0067974 38.35 0.000 .2473344 .2739796
5 | .2908749 .0081674 35.61 0.000 .274867 .3068828
6 | .3229879 .0100699 32.07 0.000 .3032512 .3427246
7 | .3567912 .0123602 28.87 0.000 .3325657 .3810167
8 | .392022 .0148986 26.31 0.000 .3628214 .4212227
9 | .4283659 .0175579 24.40 0.000 .3939531 .4627787
10 | .4654657 .0202204 23.02 0.000 .4258344 .5050971
11 | .5029346 .0227767 22.08 0.000 .4582931 .5475762
12 | .5403709 .0251273 21.51 0.000 .4911223 .5896195
13 | .5773743 .0271863 21.24 0.000 .5240901 .6306584
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gn"ithkeq"swg"owguvtc"guvc"fkpokec"ug"owguvtc"c"eqpvkpwcekp0"
marginsplot, yline(0) recastci(rarea)
08
07
Rt*Xhkukec+
06
05
04
42 47 52 57 62 67 72 77 82 87 92 97 :2
Gfcf
"
Rctc" ncu" ectcevgtuvkecu" fcfcu." ug" qdugtxc" swg" c" oc{qt" gfcf" fg" nc" owlgt." oc{qt" gu" nc"
rtqdcdknkfcf" fg" gzrgtkogpvct" xkqngpekc" hukec." cu" okuoq" ug" qdugtxc" gn" kpetgogpvq" fg" nc"
fguxkcekp"guvpfct0"
Caso 8
C"eqpvkpwcekp"ug"tgcnk|c"wpc"eqorctcekp"gpvtg"ncu"owlgtgu"swg"fgekfkgtqp"gpvtg"vgpgt"{"pq"
vgpgt" ou" jklqu." guvq" rctc" fkuvkpvcu" gfcfgu" fg" ncu" rctglcu0" Ug" wvknk|c" quietly" {" noatlegend"
rctc"pq"oquvtct"tguwnvcfqu"{"nc"ng{gpfc."rwguvq"swg"gn"qdlgvkxq"gu"nc"eqorctcekp"ithkec0"
quietly logit vfisica sexjefho edad edadpareja casada hijosmenor

nivestu edupareja fernomas sitlaboral parconbeba etniespa etniaymara
etniquechua telev
margins, over(fernomas) at(nivestu=(3) edupareja=(2) edadpareja=(20(5)80))

noatlegend

Model VCE : OIM

over : fernomas
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Delta-method
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
_at#fernomas |
1#Otros | .2911919 .0065547 44.43 0.000 .278345 .3040388
1#Si | .3501929 .007818 44.79 0.000 .3348699 .3655159
2#Otros | .2701032 .0059881 45.11 0.000 .2583668 .2818396
2#Si | .3268904 .0071706 45.59 0.000 .3128362 .3409445
3#Otros | .249971 .0056545 44.21 0.000 .2388883 .2610537
3#Si | .3043775 .0067504 45.09 0.000 .291147 .317608
4#Otros | .2308335 .005531 41.73 0.000 .219993 .2416741
4#Si | .282729 .0065532 43.14 0.000 .2698851 .295573
5#Otros | .2127157 .0055688 38.20 0.000 .201801 .2236304
5#Si | .2620058 .006546 40.03 0.000 .2491758 .2748357
6#Otros | .19563 .0057093 34.26 0.000 .1844399 .2068201
6#Si | .2422549 .0066766 36.28 0.000 .2291691 .2553407
7#Otros | .1795771 .0058989 30.44 0.000 .1680156 .1911387
7#Si | .2235098 .0068883 32.45 0.000 .210009 .2370106
8#Otros | .1645478 .0060963 26.99 0.000 .1525992 .1764964
8#Si | .2057909 .0071319 28.85 0.000 .1918125 .2197692
9#Otros | .1505234 .0062739 23.99 0.000 .1382267 .1628201
9#Si | .1891062 .0073704 25.66 0.000 .1746606 .2035519
10#Otros | .1374777 .0064148 21.43 0.000 .1249049 .1500505
10#Si | .1734528 .0075782 22.89 0.000 .1585999 .1883058
11#Otros | .1253779 .0065099 19.26 0.000 .1126187 .1381372
11#Si | .1588176 .0077398 20.52 0.000 .143648 .1739873
12#Otros | .1141864 .006556 17.42 0.000 .1013368 .1270359
12#Si | .145179 .0078468 18.50 0.000 .1297995 .1605585
13#Otros | .1038613 .0065533 15.85 0.000 .0910171 .1167056
13#Si | .132508 .0078964 16.78 0.000 .1170314 .1479846
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Fg" ncu" owlgtgu" swg" uk" fgekfkgtqp" pq" vgpgt" ou" jklqu." nc" rtqdcdknkfcf" fg" gzrgtkogpvct"
xkqngpekc"hukec"cwogpvc"eqp"tgncekp"c"cswgnncu"owlgtgu"swg"vqoctqp"qvtc"fgekukp0""
"
Fg"cewgtfq"c"ncu"gfcfgu"fg"nc"rctglc"*jqodtg+."ug"qdugtxc"swg"c"oc{qt"gfcf."ogpqt"gu"nc"
rtqdcdknkfcf"fg"gzrgtkogpvct"xkqngpekc"hukec"gp"owlgtgu0""
"
"
Gn"ithkeq"ug"qdvkgpg"ogfkcpvg<"
057
05
Rt*Xhkukec+
04 047
037
03
42 47 52 57 62 67 72 77 82 87 92 97 :2
Gfcf"fg"nc"rctglc
Qvtqu Uk
Gu"rqukdng"wvknk|ct"ncu"qrekqpgu"tgecuv*nkpg+"tgecuvek*tctgc+."ew{q"tguwnvcfq"gu"gn"ukiwkgpvg0"
marginsplot, yline(0) recastci(rarea)
057
05
Rt*Xhkukec+
04 047
037
03
42 47 52 57 62 67 72 77 82 87 92 97 :2
Gfcf"fg"nc"rctglc
Qvtqu Uk
"
RAZN DE PROBABILIDADES (ODDS RATIO)
Gp" uvcvc" gzkuvgp" fqu" qrekqpgu" fg" guvkocekp" fg" nc" tc|p" fg" rtqdcdknkfcfgu" *qffu" tcvkq+."
wvknk|cpfq"nc"kpuvtweekp"or"q"logistic0"
logistic vfisica sexjefho edad edadpareja casada hijosmenor nivestu edupareja

logit vfisica sexjefho edad edadpareja casada hijosmenor nivestu edupareja fernomas
sitlaboral parconbeba etniespa etniaymara etniquechua telev, or


LR chi2(14) = 1308.90
Prob > chi2 = 0.0000
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
vfisica | Odds Ratio Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
sexjefho | .8920014 .0380578 -2.68 0.007 .8204432 .9698008
edad | 1.032149 .0023518 13.89 0.000 1.02755 1.036769
edadpareja | .9786031 .001232 -17.18 0.000 .9761915 .9810208
casada | .9122045 .0335298 -2.50 0.012 .8487987 .9803469
hijosmenor | .9492873 .021267 -2.32 0.020 .9085066 .9918986
nivestu | .8622768 .020518 -6.23 0.000 .8229856 .9034439
edupareja | .8831026 .0258514 -4.25 0.000 .833861 .9352521
fernomas | 1.226216 .0388147 6.44 0.000 1.152452 1.304701
sitlaboral | 1.270145 .0411949 7.37 0.000 1.191918 1.353507
parconbeba | 1.930249 .0786895 16.13 0.000 1.782021 2.090806
etniespa | 1.732439 .2619776 3.63 0.000 1.288072 2.330107
etniaymara | 1.942087 .4898145 2.63 0.008 1.184641 3.183835
etniquechua | 1.858482 .2931299 3.93 0.000 1.364276 2.531714
telev | 1.315454 .0608389 5.93 0.000 1.201457 1.440268
_cons | .1278724 .0231056 -11.38 0.000 .089737 .1822143
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"
Rtqeguq"fg"enewnq"fg"tc|p"fg"rtqdcdknkfcfgu"gp"dcug"c"nqu"eqghkekgpvgu"*g?4093:4:3:5+0"
"
xhkukec" Eqgh0" Rtqeguq"fg"enewnq" Qffu"Tcvkq"
ugzlghjq" /203364:98 g`/203364:98 20:;42236"
gfcf" 202538653 g`202538653 3025436;2"
gfcfrctglc" /2024384;3 g`/2024384;3 20;9:8253"
ecucfc" /202;3:;32 g`/202;3:;3 20;344267"
jklquogpqt" /202742659 g`/202742659 20;6;4:95"
pkxguvw" /2036:39;2 g`/2036:39; 20:84498:"
gfwrctglc" /20346535: g`/20346535: 20::53248"
hgtpqocu" 20425;54; g`20425;54; 304484382"
ukvncdqtcn" 2045;3536 g`2045;3536 304923672"
rcteqpdgdc" 2087986:: g`2087986:: 30;5246;2"
gvpkgurc" 2076;7525 g`2076;7525 3095465;2"
gvpkc{octc" 208859854 g`208859854 30;642:92"
gvpkswgejwc" 2083;9824 g`2083;9824 30:7:6:42"
vgngx" 204963:3: g`204963:3: 305376762"
"
Nkuvcfq"fg"eqghkekgpvgu"nqiuvkequ"{"eqekgpvgu"fg"tc|qpgu"*kpenw{gpfq"kphqtocekp+0"
"
Listcoef, help
logit (N=22410): Factor Change in Odds
Odds of: Si vs No
----------------------------------------------------------------------
vfisica | b z P>|z| e^b e^bStdX SDofX
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------
sexjefho | -0.11429 -2.679 0.007 0.8920 0.9565 0.3895
edad | 0.03164 13.887 0.000 1.0321 1.2854 7.9344
edadpareja | -0.02163 -17.181 0.000 0.9786 0.7335 14.3272
casada | -0.09189 -2.500 0.012 0.9122 0.9592 0.4530
hijosmenor | -0.05204 -2.323 0.020 0.9493 0.9635 0.7135
nivestu | -0.14818 -6.227 0.000 0.8623 0.8894 0.7912
edupareja | -0.12431 -4.247 0.000 0.8831 0.9268 0.6111
fernomas | 0.20393 6.443 0.000 1.2262 1.1070 0.4984
sitlaboral | 0.23913 7.373 0.000 1.2701 1.1230 0.4853
parconbeba | 0.65765 16.132 0.000 1.9302 1.3075 0.4077
etniespa | 0.54953 3.634 0.000 1.7324 1.1728 0.2901
etniaymara | 0.66376 2.632 0.008 1.9421 1.0475 0.0699
etniquechua | 0.61976 3.929 0.000 1.8585 1.1762 0.2619
telev | 0.27418 5.928 0.000 1.3155 1.1041 0.3611
----------------------------------------------------------------------
b = raw coefficient
z = z-score for test of b=0
P>|z| = p-value for z-test
e^b = exp(b) = factor change in odds for unit increase in X
e^bStdX = exp(b*SD of X) = change in odds for SD increase in X
SDofX = standard deviation of X
Interpretacin de la razn de probabilidades
" Uk" gn" lghg" fg" jqict" gu" jqodtg." ncu" rqukdknkfcfgu" *rqpfgtcfcu+" gp" hcxqt" fg"
gzrgtkogpvct"xkqngpekc"hukec"gp"owlgtgu"gu"20:;42"xgegu"kphgtkqt"c"ewcpfq"gn"lghg"fg"
jqict"gu"owlgt."gu"fgekt."ug"tgfweg"gp"cntgfgfqt"fg"34032'"**3120:;42/3+,322+0"
"
" Uk" nc" gfcf" fg" nc" owlgt" ug" kpetgogpvc" gp" wp" cq." ncu" rqukdknkfcfgu" *rqpfgtcfcu+" gp"
hcxqt" fg" gzrgtkogpvct" xkqngpekc" hukec" gp" owlgtgu" ug" kpetgogpvcp" gp" 302543" xgegu."
gu"fgekt."cwogpvcp"gp"cntgfgfqt"fg"5043'"**302543/3+,322+0"
"
" Uk" nc" gfcf" fg" nc" rctglc" *jqodtg+" ug" kpetgogpvc" gp" wp" cq." ncu" rqukdknkfcfgu"
*rqpfgtcfcu+" gp" hcxqt" fg" gzrgtkogpvct" xkqngpekc" hukec" gp" owlgtgu" fkuokpw{gp" gp"
20;9:8"xgegu."gu"fgekt."ug"tgfweg"gp"cntgfgfqt"fg"403:'"**3120;9:8/3+,322+0"
"
" Uk" nc" rctglc" gu" ecucfc." ncu" rqukdknkfcfgu" *rqpfgtcfcu+" gp" hcxqt" fg" gzrgtkogpvct"
xkqngpekc" hukec" gp" owlgtgu" fkuokpw{gp" gp" 20;344" xgegu." gu" fgekt." ug" tgfweg" gp"
cntgfgfqt"fg";084'"**3120;344/3+,322+0"
"
" Uk" gn" pogtq" fg" jklqu" ogpqtgu" c" ekpeq" cqu" ug" kpetgogpvc" gp" wpc" wpkfcf." ncu"
rqukdknkfcfgu" *rqpfgtcfcu+" gp" hcxqt" fg" gzrgtkogpvct" xkqngpekc" hukec" gp" owlgtgu"
fkuokpw{gp"gp"20;644"xgegu."gu"fgekt."ug"tgfweg"gp"cntgfgfqt"fg"8035'"**3120;644/
3+,322+0"
"
"
" Uk" gn" pkxgn" fg" gfwecekp" fg" nc" owlgt" ug" kpetgogpvc" gp" wp" pkxgn." ncu" rqukdknkfcfgu"
20:844"rwpvqu."gu"fgekt."gp"cntgfgfqt"fg"370;:'"**3120:844/3+,322+0"
"
" Uk" gn" pkxgn" fg" gfwecekp" fg" nc" rctglc" *jqodtg+" ug" kpetgogpvc" gp" wp" pkxgn." ncu"
rqukdknkfcfgu" *rqpfgtcfcu+" gp" hcxqt" fg" gzrgtkogpvct" xkqngpekc" hukec" gp" owlgtgu"
fkuokpw{gp"gp"20::53"xgegu."q"cntgfgfqt"fg"35045'"**3120::53/3+,322+0"
"
" Uk" nc" fgekukp" fg" nc" owlgt" uqdtg" hgtvknkfcf" gu" pq" vgpgt" ou" jklqu." ncu" rqukdknkfcfgu"
*rqpfgtcfcu+" gp" hcxqt" fg" gzrgtkogpvct" xkqngpekc" hukec" gp" owlgtgu" cwogpvcp" gp"
304484"xgegu."gu"fgekt."gp"cntgfgfqt"fg"44084'"**304484/3+,322+0"
"
" Uk" nc" owlgt" vkgpg" gorngq." ncu" rqukdknkfcfgu" *rqpfgtcfcu+" gp" hcxqt" fg" gzrgtkogpvct"
xkqngpekc" hukec" gp" owlgtgu" cwogpvcp" gp" 304923" xgegu." gu" fgekt." cntgfgfqt" fg"
49023'"**304923/3+,322+0"
"
" Uk"nc"rctglc"eqpuwog"dgdkfcu"cneqjnkecu."ncu"rqukdknkfcfgu"*rqpfgtcfcu+"gp"hcxqt"fg"
gzrgtkogpvct" xkqngpekc" hukec" gp" owlgtgu" cwogpvcp" gp" 30;524" xgegu." gu" fgekt." gp"
cntgfgfqt"fg";5024'"**30;524/3+,322+0"
" Uk" rgtvgpgeg" c" nc" gvpkc" c{octc." ncu" rqukdknkfcfgu" *rqpfgtcfcu+" gp" hcxqt" fg"
gzrgtkogpvct" xkqngpekc" hukec" gp" owlgtgu" cwogpvcp" gp" 30;642" xgegu." gu" fgekt." gp"
cntgfgfqt"fg";6042'"**30;642/3+,322+0"
"
" Uk" rgtvgpgeg" c" nc" gvpkc" swgejwc." ncu" rqukdknkfcfgu" *rqpfgtcfcu+" gp" hcxqt" fg"
gzrgtkogpvct" xkqngpekc" hukec" gp" owlgtgu" cwogpvcp" gp" 30:7:6" xgegu." gu" fgekt." gp"
cntgfgfqt"fg":70:6'"**30:7:6/3+,322+0"
"
Razn de probabilidades particulares
"
Rtqeguq"fg"enewnq"fg"tc|p"fg"rtqdcdknkfcfgu"*g?4093:4:3:5+"
"
Qffu"Tcvkq"
xhkukec" Eqgh0" Rtqeguq"fg"enewnq" Qffu"Tcvkq"*@3+
*wpkvctkq+"
ugzlghjq" /203364:98 g`/203364:98*3+ 20:;42236" 20:;42236
gfcf" 202538653 g`202538653*7+ 3025436;2" 3039363:8
gfcfrctglc" /2024384;3 g`/2024384;3*7+ 20;9:8253" 20:;96;92
ecucfc" /202;3:;32 g`/202;3:;3*3+ 20;344267" 20;344268
jklquogpqt" /202742659 g`/202742659*4+ 20;6;4:95" 20;233687
" Uk" nc" gfcf" fg" nc" owlgt" ug" kpetgogpvc" gp" 7" cqu." ncu" rqukdknkfcfgu" *rqpfgtcfcu+" gp"
hcxqt" fg" gzrgtkogpvct" xkqngpekc" hukec" gp" owlgtgu" cwogpvcp" gp" 303936" xgegu." q"
cntgfgfqt"fg"39036'0"
"
" Uk" gn" pogtq" fg" jklqu" ogpqtgu" c" ekpeq" cqu" ug" kpetgogpvc" gp" 4." ncu" rqukdknkfcfgu"
20;233"xgegu."q"cntgfgfqt"fg"320;9'"**3120;233/3+,322+0"
"
Muestra detallada del proceso de clculo de la razn de probabilidades
Ug"vkgpgp"nqu"eqghkekgpvgu"guvkocfqu"fgn"nqikv"oquvtcfqu"gp"wp"kpkekq0"
"

LR chi2(14) = 1308.90
Prob > chi2 = 0.0000
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
sexjefho | -.1142876 .0426656 -2.68 0.007 -.1979106 -.0306646
edad | .0316431 .0022785 13.89 0.000 .0271773 .036109
edadpareja | -.0216291 .0012589 -17.18 0.000 -.0240965 -.0191617
casada | -.091891 .0367569 -2.50 0.012 -.1639332 -.0198488
hijosmenor | -.0520437 .0224031 -2.32 0.020 -.0959531 -.0081344
nivestu | -.148179 .0237952 -6.23 0.000 -.1948166 -.1015413
edupareja | -.1243138 .0292733 -4.25 0.000 -.1816885 -.0669392
fernomas | .2039329 .031654 6.44 0.000 .1418922 .2659737
sitlaboral | .2391314 .0324332 7.37 0.000 .1755634 .3026993
parconbeba | .6576488 .0407665 16.13 0.000 .5777479 .7375497
etniespa | .5495303 .151219 3.63 0.000 .2531466 .845914
etniaymara | .6637632 .2522104 2.63 0.008 .1694399 1.158086
etniquechua | .6197602 .1577254 3.93 0.000 .3106241 .9288964
telev | .2741818 .0462494 5.93 0.000 .1835347 .3648289
_cons | -2.056722 .1806922 -11.38 0.000 -2.410872 -1.702572
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"
Ugc"gn"ecuq"fg"nc"gfcf"fg"nc"owlgt"*egvgtku"rctkdwu+0"
"
e 2.056722+ 0.0316431edad
Pi = "
1 + e 2.056722+ 0.0316431edad
"
Rctc"wpc"ukvwcekp"q"guvcfq"kpkekcn"fg"nc"gfcf."gfcf"?"420"
"
e 2.056722+ 0.0316431(20)
Pi = = 0.19405717 "
1 + e 2.056722+ 0.0316431(20)
1 Pi = 1 0.19405717 = 0.80594283 "
"
Pi 0.19405717
Odds0 = = = 0.2407828 "
1 Pi 0.80594283
"
Rctc" wpc" ukvwcekp" q" guvcfq" rquvgtkqt" fg" nc" gfcf." gfcf" ?" 43." fqpfg" nc" tgitguqtc" ug"
kpetgogpvc"gp"wpc"wpkfcf0"
"
e2.056722+ 0.0316431(21)
Pi = = 0.19905408 "
1 + e2.056722+ 0.0316431(21)
1 Pi = 1 0.19905408 = 0.80094592 "
"
Pi 0.19905408
Odds1 = = = 0.24852374 "
1 Pi 0.80094592
"
Tgncekp"gpvtg"gn"qffu3"{"gn"qffu20"
"
Odds1 0.24852374
Odds ratio = = = 1.03214907 "
Odds0 0.2407828
"
Eqorctcpfq"eqp"nqu"tguwnvcfqu"oquvtcfqu0"
"
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
vfisica | Odds Ratio Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
sexjefho | .8920014 .0380578 -2.68 0.007 .8204432 .9698008
edad | 1.032149 .0023518 13.89 0.000 1.02755 1.036769
edadpareja | .9786031 .001232 -17.18 0.000 .9761915 .9810208
"
Curgevqu"tgucnvcpvgu<"
"
" Ewcpfq"nc"gfcf"fg"nc"owlgt"gu"42."nc"tgncekp"c"hcxqt"fg"gzrgtkogpvct"xkqngpekc"hukec"
gu"204629:4:0"
"
" Ewcpfq"nc"gfcf"fg"nc"owlgt"gu"43."nc"tgncekp"c"hcxqt"fg"gzrgtkogpvct"xkqngpekc"hukec"
gu"2046:745960"
"
" Ewcpfq"nc"gfcf"ug"kpetgogpvc"gp"wpc"wpkfcf."ncu"rqukdknkfcfgu"q"nc"tc|p"c"hcxqt"fg"
gzrgtkogpvct"xkqngpekc"fqouvkec"ug"kpetgogpvc"gp"3025436;."gu"fgekt"gp"5043'0"
"
EFECTOS MARGINALES (POST ESTIMACIN)
Pwgxcogpvg"ug"vkgpg"nc"guvkocekp"nqikv0"



LR chi2(14) = 1308.90
Prob > chi2 = 0.0000
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
sexjefho | -.1142876 .0426656 -2.68 0.007 -.1979106 -.0306646
edad | .0316431 .0022785 13.89 0.000 .0271773 .036109
edadpareja | -.0216291 .0012589 -17.18 0.000 -.0240965 -.0191617
casada | -.091891 .0367569 -2.50 0.012 -.1639332 -.0198488
hijosmenor | -.0520437 .0224031 -2.32 0.020 -.0959531 -.0081344
nivestu | -.148179 .0237952 -6.23 0.000 -.1948166 -.1015413
edupareja | -.1243138 .0292733 -4.25 0.000 -.1816885 -.0669392
fernomas | .2039329 .031654 6.44 0.000 .1418922 .2659737
sitlaboral | .2391314 .0324332 7.37 0.000 .1755634 .3026993
parconbeba | .6576488 .0407665 16.13 0.000 .5777479 .7375497
etniespa | .5495303 .151219 3.63 0.000 .2531466 .845914
etniaymara | .6637632 .2522104 2.63 0.008 .1694399 1.158086
etniquechua | .6197602 .1577254 3.93 0.000 .3106241 .9288964
telev | .2741818 .0462494 5.93 0.000 .1835347 .3648289
_cons | -2.056722 .1806922 -11.38 0.000 -2.410872 -1.702572
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"
Gewcekp"nqikv0"
e2.050.11sexjefho+0.03edad 0.02edadpareja 0.09casada +...+ 0.27telev

Pi =
1 + e2.050.11sexjefho + 0.03edad 0.02edadpareja 0.09casada +...+0.27telev
Gn"ghgevq"octikpcn"rctc"wpc"tgitguqtc"Zk0"
dPi
Efecto marginal de X i =
dX i
"
e 2.056722+...+ 0.0316431edad +...+ 0.2741818telev
d
dPi 1 + e 2.056722+...+ 0.0316431edad +...+ 0.2741818telev
= "
dX i dX i
"
Ugc<" u = 2.056722 + ... + 0.0316431edad + ... + 0.2741818telev "
"
dPi eu '(1 + eu ) (1 + eu ) ' eu
=
dX i (1 + eu ) 2
"
dPi eu u' (1 + eu ) (0 + eu u' )eu

=
dX i (1 + eu ) 2
dPi eu u' (1 + eu ) eu u'eu

=
dX i (1 + eu ) 2
dPi eu u' (1 + eu eu )
=
dX i (1 + eu ) 2
dPi eu u'
=
dX i (1 + eu ) 2
dPi (2.056722 + ... + 0.0316431edad + ... + 0.2741818telev) ' eu

=
dX i (1 + eu ) 2
"
Fgtkxcpfq"eqp"tgurgevq"c"nc"xctkcdng"gfcf"fg"nc"owlgt0"
"
dPi 0.0316431eu
= "
dedad (1 + eu ) 2
"
dPi 0.0316431e 2.056722+...+ 0.0316431edad +...+ 0.2741818telev
= "
dedad (1 + e 2.056722+...+ 0.0316431edad +...+ 0.2741818telev ) 2
"
Rctc" ogfkt" gn" ecodkq" tgurgevkxq" *gfcf+" ug" eqpukfgtc" nc" ogfkc" fg" ecfc" wpc" fg" ncu"
tgitguqtcu."ew{q"rtqegfkokgpvq"gu"gn"ukiwkgpvg<"
"
Tgitguqtc" Eqgh0"Nqikv" Ogcp" Eqgh,Ogcp"
ugzlghjq" /203364:98 20:357429 /202;4;975"
Gfcf" 202538653 54054:;422 30244;:94"
gfcfrctglc" /2024384;3 530:957622 /208:;5;82"
ecucfc" /202;3:;32 204::52:: /202486;52"
jklquogpqt" /202742659 3029276;2 /202779375"
pkxguvw" /2036:39;2 30;724672 /204::;:76"
gfwrctglc" /20346535: 30;26:862 /20458:22;"
hgtpqocu" 20425;54; 207622936 2033235:5"
ukvncdqtcn" 2045;3536 208426:3; 2036:5989"
rcteqpdgdc" 2087986:: 209:;68;2 2073;3;55"
gvpkgurc" 2076;7525 20;2944:; 206;:76;:"
gvpkc{octc" 208859854 20226;2:7 2022547:3"
gvpkswgejwc" 2083;9824 202962963 20267;2:4"
vgngx" 204963:3: 20:67:49: 20453;328"
aeqpu" /402789442 302222222 /402789442"
Uwoc" \"? -0.86676562

"
"
dPi 0.0316431e 0.86676562

= "
dedad (1 + e 0.86676562 ) 2
"
dPi 0.01329987
= = 0.00659298 "
dedad 2.01727706
"
dy
= 0.00659298 ; x = edad "
dx
"
Caso 1
"
Nwgiq" fg" tgcnk|ct" nc" guvkocekp" nqikv." gn" tguwnvcfq" cpvgtkqt" ug" rwgfg" eqttqdqtct" wvknk|cpfq"
ewcnswkgtc"fg"ncu"fqu"ukiwkgpvgu"kpuvtweekqpgu<"
"
mfx
mfx, predict(p)
"
Marginal effects after logit
y = Pr(vfisica) (predict)
= .29592777
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
variable | dy/dx Std. Err. z P>|z| [ 95% C.I. ] X
---------+--------------------------------------------------------------------
sexjefho*| -.0241531 .00914 -2.64 0.008 -.04207 -.006236 .813521
edad | .006593 .00047 13.89 0.000 .005663 .007523 32.3289
edadpa~a | -.0045065 .00026 -17.17 0.000 -.005021 -.003992 31.8735
casada*| -.0189914 .00753 -2.52 0.012 -.033756 -.004227 .288309
hijosm~r | -.0108436 .00467 -2.32 0.020 -.019992 -.001695 1.07055
nivestu | -.0308738 .00496 -6.23 0.000 -.040587 -.021161 1.95025
edupar~a | -.0259014 .0061 -4.25 0.000 -.037852 -.01395 1.90486
fernomas*| .0423302 .00654 6.47 0.000 .029516 .055145 .540071
sitlab~l*| .0492056 .00658 7.48 0.000 .036312 .062099 .620482
parcon~a*| .125512 .00698 17.98 0.000 .11183 .139194 .789469
etniespa*| .1032813 .0252 4.10 0.000 .053896 .152666 .907229
etniay~a*| .1533675 .06233 2.46 0.014 .031206 .275529 .004909
etniqu~a*| .1408377 .03811 3.70 0.000 .066141 .215535 .074074
telev*| .0548224 .00884 6.20 0.000 .037496 .072149 .845828
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(*) dy/dx is for discrete change of dummy variable from 0 to 1
"
Ecdg" ogpekqpct" swg" nc" kpuvtweekp" mfx" ug" wvknk|c" gp" xgtukqpgu" rcucfcu" fgn" uvcvc." ew{q"
tggornc|q"gp"xgtukqpgu"cevwcngu"gu"nc"kpuvtweekp"margins"swg"vkgpg"ou"rtqrkgfcfgu0"
"
Caso 2
"
Guvkocpfq"pwgxcogpvg"gn"nqikv"ukp"oquvtct"tguwnvcfqu0"
"
quietly logit vfisica sexjefho edad edadpareja casada hijosmenor nivestu edupareja
fernomas sitlaboral parconbeba etniespa etniaymara etniquechua telev"
"
Ecnewncpfq"nqu"ghgevqu"octikpcngu"
"
margins, dydx(*)
Average marginal effects Number of obs = 22,410

Model VCE : OIM
"
dy/dx w.r.t. : sexjefho edad edadpareja casada hijosmenor nivestu edupareja
fernomas sitlaboral parconbeba etniespa etniaymara
etniquechua telev
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Delta-method
| dy/dx Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
sexjefho | -.0228415 .008522 -2.68 0.007 -.0395443 -.0061388
edad | .0063242 .0004483 14.11 0.000 .0054455 .0072029
edadpareja | -.0043228 .0002454 -17.61 0.000 -.0048038 -.0038417
casada | -.0183653 .0073429 -2.50 0.012 -.0327572 -.0039734
hijosmenor | -.0104015 .0044756 -2.32 0.020 -.0191736 -.0016294
nivestu | -.029615 .0047418 -6.25 0.000 -.0389087 -.0203214
edupareja | -.0248454 .0058429 -4.25 0.000 -.0362972 -.0133935
fernomas | .040758 .0063073 6.46 0.000 .028396 .0531201
sitlaboral | .0477928 .006457 7.40 0.000 .0351373 .0604483
parconbeba | .1314377 .0080075 16.41 0.000 .1157433 .1471321
etniespa | .1098291 .0301976 3.64 0.000 .0506429 .1690153
etniaymara | .1326597 .0503837 2.63 0.008 .0339094 .23141
etniquechua | .1238653 .0314917 3.93 0.000 .0621427 .1855878
telev | .054798 .00922 5.94 0.000 .0367271 .0728688
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Eqpukfgtcpfq"ncu"ogfkcu"rctc"ncu"tgitguqtcu0"
"
margins, dydx(*) atmeans post
Conditional marginal effects Number of obs = 22,410

Model VCE : OIM

dy/dx w.r.t. : sexjefho edad edadpareja casada hijosmenor nivestu edupareja
fernomas sitlaboral parconbeba etniespa etniaymara
etniquechua telev
edad = 32.32892 (mean)
telev = .8458278 (mean)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Delta-method
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
sexjefho | -.0238123 .0088901 -2.68 0.007 -.0412365 -.0063881
edad | .006593 .0004746 13.89 0.000 .0056628 .0075231
edadpareja | -.0045065 .0002625 -17.17 0.000 -.005021 -.0039921
casada | -.0191459 .0076576 -2.50 0.012 -.0341545 -.0041373
hijosmenor | -.0108436 .0046676 -2.32 0.020 -.0199919 -.0016952
nivestu | -.0308738 .0049558 -6.23 0.000 -.0405868 -.0211607
edupareja | -.0259014 .0060976 -4.25 0.000 -.0378523 -.0139504
fernomas | .0424904 .0065907 6.45 0.000 .0295729 .0554078
sitlaboral | .0498241 .0067501 7.38 0.000 .0365941 .0630541
parconbeba | .1370241 .0084307 16.25 0.000 .1205002 .153548
etniespa | .1144971 .0314926 3.64 0.000 .0527728 .1762214
etniaymara | .1382981 .0525384 2.63 0.008 .0353246 .2412715
etniquechua | .1291298 .0328464 3.93 0.000 .0647522 .1935075
telev | .057127 .0096302 5.93 0.000 .0382521 .076002
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"
Eqorctcekp"fg"nqu"ghgevqu"octikpcngu"wvknk|cpfq"fkxgtucu"kpuvtweekqpgu"*ecuq"3"{"4+0
octikpu." octikpu."f{fz*,+"
ohz" ohz."rtgfkev*r+"
Xctkcdng" f{fz*,+" cvogcpu"rquv"
f{1fz" f{1fz" f{1fz" f{1fz"
ugzlghjq" /20246375" /20246375 /20244:64 /20245:34
gfcf" 202287;5" 202287;5 20228546 202287;5
gfcfrctglc" /20226729" /20226729 /20226545 /20226729
ecucfc" /2023:;;3" /2023:;;3 /2023:587 /2023;368
jklquogpqt" /20232:66" /20232:66 /20232624 /20232:66
pkxguvw" /20252:96" /20252:96 /2024;837 /20252:96
gfwrctglc" /20247;23" /20247;23 /20246:67 /20247;23
hgtpqocu" 20264552" 20264552 2026297: 202646;2
ukvncdqtcn" 2026;428" 2026;428 202699;5 2026;:46
rcteqpdgdc" 20347734" 20347734 2035365: 20359246
gvpkgurc" 203254:3" 203254:3 2032;:4; 203366;9
gvpkc{octc" 2037558:" 2037558: 20354882 2035:4;:
gvpkswgejwc" 20362:5:" 20362:5: 20345:87 2034;352
vgngx" 20276:44" 20276:44 202769;: 20279349
Interpretacin de los efectos marginales

"
Rwguvq" swg" nc" kpuvtweekp" mfx" eqttgurqpfg" c" ncu" xgtukqpgu" cpvgtkqtgu." nc" okuoc" swg" hwg"
tggornc|cfc" rqt" margins." gpvqpegu" ug" kpvgtrtgvct" nqu" swg" eqttgurqpfgp" c" octikpu."
f{fz*,+0"
"
" Gp"wp"jqict"fqpfg"gn"lghg"fg"hcoknkc"gu"jqodtg"*3<"jqodtg+."ug"vkgpg"404:'"ogpqu"
rtqdcdknkfcfgu"swg"ncu"owlgtgu"gzrgtkogpvgp"xkqngpekc"hukec0"
"
" Uk" ug" kpetgogpvc" nc" gfcf" fg" nc" owlgt" gp" wp" cq." gpvqpegu" gzkuvgp" 2085'" ou"
rtqdcdknkfcfgu"fg"swg"ncu"owlgtgu"gzrgtkogpvgp"xkqngpekc"hukec0"
"
" Uk" ug" kpetgogpvc" nc" gfcf" fg" nc" rctglc" gp" wp" cq." gpvqpegu" gzkuvgp" 2065'" ogpqu"
"
" Gp" wp" jqict" fqpfg" nc" rctglc" gu" ecucfc." gpvqpegu" gzkuvgp" 30:5'" ogpqu"
"
" Uk" nc" hcoknkc" rgtvgpgeg" c" wpc" gvpkc" gurcqn." gpvqpegu" gzkuvgp" 320;:'" ou"
"
" Uk" nc" hcoknkc" rgtvgpgeg" c" wpc" gvpkc" c{octc." gpvqpegu" gzkuvgp" 35048'" ou"
"
" Uk" nc" hcoknkc" rgtvgpgeg" c" wpc" gvpkc" gurcqn." gpvqpegu" gzkuvgp" 3405:'" ou"
"
"
"
"
Caso 3
"
Guvkocpfq"gn"oqfgnq"nqikv"ukp"oquvtct"tguwnvcfqu0"
"
"
Ecnewncpfq"nqu"ghgevqu"octikpcngu"rctc"ncu"rctglcu"swg"eqpuwogp"dgdkfcu"cneqjnkecu0"
"
margins, dydx(parconbeba) atmeans post
Conditional marginal effects Number of obs = 22,410

Model VCE : OIM

dy/dx w.r.t. : parconbeba
edad = 32.32892 (mean)
telev = .8458278 (mean)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Delta-method
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
parconbeba | .1370241 .0084307 16.25 0.000 .1205002 .153548
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"
Oquvtcpfq" gn" ghgevq" octikpcn" fg" ncu" rctglcu" swg" eqpuwogp" dgdkfcu" cneqjnkecu" rctc" ncu"
fkhgtgpvgu"gfcfgu"fg"nqu"okuoqu0
margins, dydx(parconbeba) at(edadpareja=(20(5)60))

Model VCE : OIM

1._at : edadpareja = 20
"
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Delta-method
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
parconbeba |
_at |
1 | .1440187 .008727 16.50 0.000 .1269141 .1611233
2 | .1397851 .0084813 16.48 0.000 .1231621 .1564082
3 | .1350493 .0082087 16.45 0.000 .1189605 .1511381
4 | .1298865 .0079188 16.40 0.000 .114366 .145407
5 | .1243749 .0076215 16.32 0.000 .109437 .1393127
6 | .1185934 .0073264 16.19 0.000 .1042339 .132953
7 | .1126197 .0070418 15.99 0.000 .0988181 .1264213
8 | .106528 .0067737 15.73 0.000 .0932519 .1198042
9 | .1003883 .006526 15.38 0.000 .0875976 .1131789
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nc"tgrtgugpvcekp"ithkec"ug"owguvtc"c"eqpvkpwcekp0
Cxgtcig"Octikpcn"Ghhgevu"qh"rcteqpdgdc"ykvj";7'"EKu
038 036
Ghhgevu"qp"Rt*Xhkukec+
03403
02:
42 47 52 57 62 67 72 77 82
Gfcf"fg"nc"rctglc
Caso 4
Oquvtcpfq" gn" ghgevq" octikpcn" fg" ncu" rctglcu" swg" eqpuwogp" dgdkfcu" cneqjnkecu" rctc" ncu"
fkhgtgpvgu"gfcfgu"fg"nqu"okuoqu."eqorctcpfq"nc"fgekukp"fg"pq"vgpgt"ou"jklqu0
margins, dydx(parconbeba) over(fernomas) at(edadpareja=(20(5)60)) noatlegend

Model VCE : OIM

over : fernomas
"
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Delta-method
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
parconbeba |
_at#fernomas |
1#Otros | .1371317 .0083844 16.36 0.000 .1206985 .1535649
1#Si | .1498837 .0090581 16.55 0.000 .1321302 .1676372
2#Otros | .1319648 .0080857 16.32 0.000 .1161171 .1478126
2#Si | .146445 .0088677 16.51 0.000 .1290646 .1638254
3#Otros | .1264265 .0077712 16.27 0.000 .1111952 .1416577
3#Si | .1423926 .0086423 16.48 0.000 .125454 .1593311
4#Otros | .1205988 .0074511 16.19 0.000 .105995 .1352026
4#Si | .137796 .0083901 16.42 0.000 .1213517 .1542402
5#Otros | .1145628 .0071349 16.06 0.000 .1005787 .1285468
5#Si | .132731 .0081207 16.34 0.000 .1168146 .1486473
6#Otros | .1083961 .0068306 15.87 0.000 .0950082 .1217839
6#Si | .1272776 .0078443 16.23 0.000 .111903 .1426521
7#Otros | .1021716 .0065443 15.61 0.000 .089345 .1149982
7#Si | .1215173 .0075701 16.05 0.000 .1066802 .1363544
8#Otros | .0959561 .0062794 15.28 0.000 .0836487 .1082634
8#Si | .1155311 .007306 15.81 0.000 .1012116 .1298507
9#Otros | .0898092 .006037 14.88 0.000 .0779769 .1016416
9#Si | .1093974 .0070579 15.50 0.000 .0955642 .1232307
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nc"tgrtgugpvcekp"ithkec"ug"owguvtc"c"eqpvkpwcekp0
Cxgtcig"Octikpcn"Ghhgevu"qh"rcteqpdgdc"ykvj";7'"EKu
038
Ghhgevu"qp"Rt*Xhkukec+
03 03402: 036
42 47 52 57 62 67 72 77 82
Gfcf"fg"nc"rctglc
Qvtqu Uk
Ncu" owlgtgu" swg" fgekfkgtqp" pq" vgpgt" ou" jklqu" vkgpgp" oc{qt" ghgevq" octikpcn" fg" cswgnncu"
owlgtgu"swg"vqoctqp"qvtc"fgekukp."gp"codqu"ecuqu"ug"qdugtxc"swg"c"ogfkfc"swg"cwogpvc"
nc"gfcf"fg"nc"rctglc."gn"ghgevq"octikpcn"fg"gzrgtkogpvct"xkqngpekc"hukec"fkuokpw{g0""
"
ASPECTOS COMPLEMENTARIOS
"
Test de Wald
"
Gn"Vguv"fg"Ycnf"gu"wp"eqpvtcuvg"fg"jkrvguku"fqpfg"ug"vtcvc"fg"xgt"nc"eqjgtgpekc"fg"chktoct"
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"
Guvkocpfq"pwgxcogpvg"gn"nqikv"ukp"oquvtct"tguwnvcfqu0"
"
Uk" ug" fgugc" eqortqdct" uk" wp" eqghkekgpvg" gu" ukipkhkecvkxq" *ukipkhkecvkxcogpvg" fkuvkpvq" fg" 2+."
ukorngogpvg"ug"guetkdg"test ugiwkfq"rqt"gn"pqodtg"fg"eqghkekgpvg0"Gp"gn"ecuq"fg"nc"xctkcdng"
sexjefho, nc"kpuvtweekp"ugtc"nc"ukiwkgpvg<"
"
test sexjefho
( 1) [vfisica]sexjefho = 0
chi2( 1) = 7.18
Prob > chi2 = 0.0074
test sexjefho=0
chi2( 1) = 7.18
Prob > chi2 = 0.0074
Gzkuvg" wpc" rtqdcdknkfcf" fg" 2096'" fg" swg" gn" rctogvtq" fg" nc" xctkcdng" sexjefho" ugc" kiwcn" c"
egtq." gu" fgekt" gn" rctogvtq" kiwcn" c" egtq." nq" ewcn" gu" ow{" dclq0" Rqt" gn" eqpvtcvc" gzkuvgp"
uwhkekgpvgu"gxkfgpekcu"rctc"chktoct"swg"gn"rctogvtq"gu"fkhgtgpvg"fg"egtq"*tgejc|c"Jq+0"
Rctc"ugzq"fgn"lghg"fg"jqict"{"gfcf"fg"nc"owlgt<"
test sexjefho edad
( 2) [vfisica]edad = 0
chi2( 2) = 228.14
Prob > chi2 = 0.0000
Eqoq"nc"rtqdcdknkfcf"gu"ogpqt"swg"7'."gpvqpegu"ug"tgejc|c"Jq0"
Eqpukfgtcpfq"gn"kpvgtxcnq"fg"eqphkcp|c"*;7'+."ug"tgcnk|cp"nqu"vguv"fg"ycnf"

-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
sexjefho | -.1142876 .0426656 -2.68 0.007 -.1979106 -.0306646
edad | .0316431 .0022785 13.89 0.000 .0271773 .036109
test sexjefho=-0.1970
( 1) [vfisica]sexjefho = -.197
chi2( 1) = 3.76
Prob > chi2 = 0.0525
"
chi2( 1) = 0.00
Prob > chi2 = 1.0000
chi2( 1) = 3.84
Prob > chi2 = 0.0501
Ug" tgcnk|" gn" vguv" fg" Ycnf" rctc" nqu" eqghkekgpvgu" swg" ug" ukvcp" gp" gn" nokvg" fgn" kpvgtxcnq" fg"
eqphkcp|c."nqu"ewcngu"owguvtcp"wpc"rtqdcdknkfcf"gzcevc"swg"vcodkp"ug"ukvcp"gp"gn"nokvg"fg"
nc"tgikp"fg"pq"tgejc|q"fg"nc"jkrvguku"pwnc0"Rctc"guvqu"nvkoqu"vtgu"ecuqu."pq"ug"tgejc|c"nc"
jkrvguku"pwnc0"
"
Instalar el complemento fitstat (directamente de internet)
ssc install fitstat, replace
checking fitstat consistency and verifying not already installed...

installing into c:\ado\plus\...
installation complete.
Nc"qvtc"qrekp"gu"fguectict"gn"ctejkxq"g"kpuvcnct"ocpwcnogpvg."fgufg<"
jvvru<11kfgcu0tgrge0qti1e1dqe1dqeqfg1u6294230jvon"
"
Instalar SPost (utilizado por listcoef)
"
net from http://www.indiana.edu/~jslsoc/stata/
net install spost9_ado, replace
Tghgtgpekc"fg"ncu"kpuvtweekqpgu"c"wvknk|ct<"
asprvalue predictions for alternative specific models

brant Brant test of proportional odds
case2alt 1 obs per row to 1 alternative per row
countfit assess fit in count models
fitstat compute fit statistics
leastlikely find least likely predictions
listcoef list estimated coefficients
misschk examine patterns of missing data
mlogplot plot results from mlogit
mlogtest tests for mlogit
mlogview dialog box for mlogplot
praccum accumulate predictions to plot
prchange compute discrete change coefficients
prcounts compute predictions for count models
prgen create predictions and CIs for plotting
prtab tables of predictions
prvalue predictions with CIs
spex run SPost examples or load SPost data
"
"
"
Kpuvcnct"glgornqu"URquv"
net get spost9_do, replace

"
copying into current directory...
copying st9all.do
copying st9ch2tutorial.do
copying st9ch3estimate.do
copying st9ch4binary.do
copying st9ch5ordinal.do
copying st9ch6nomcase.do
copying st9ch7nomalt.do
copying st9ch8count.do
copying st9ch9other.do
copying binlfp2.dta
copying couart2.dta
copying gsskidvalue2.dta
copying nomocc2.dta
copying ordwarm2.dta
copying science2.dta
copying sciwork.dta
copying travel2.dta
copying travel2case.dta
copying wlsrnk.dta
ancillary files successfully copied.
"
Fgukpuvcnct"URquv"
ado uninstall spostado
Nkpm"fg"fguectic"rqt"fghgevq<"pgv"htqo"jvvr<11yyy0uvcvc0eqo
Aspectos a investigar
lroc<"eqorwvg"ctgc"wpfgt"TQE"ewtxg"cpf"itcrj"vjg"ewtxg"
"
3022
2097
Ugpukvkxkv{
2072
2047
2022
2022 2047 2072 2097 3022

3"/"Urgekhkekv{
Ctgc"wpfgt"TQE"ewtxg"?"208663
"
lsens<"itcrj"ugpukvkxkv{"cpf"urgekhkekv{"xgtuwu"rtqdcdknkv{"ewvqhh"
3022 2097
Ugpukvkxkv{1Urgekhkekv{
2047 2072
2022
2022 2047 2072 2097 3022

Rtqdcdknkv{"ewvqhh
Ugpukvkxkv{ Urgekhkekv{
estat gof
Logistic model for vfisica, goodness-of-fit test
number of observations = 22410

number of covariate patterns = 19310
Pearson chi2(19295) = 19427.91
Prob > chi2 = 0.2488
estat vce<"xctkcpegeqxctkcpeg"ocvtkz"qh"vjg"guvkocvqtu"*XEG+"
Covariance matrix of coefficients of logit model
| vfisica
e(V) | sexjefho edad edadpareja casada hijosmenor nivestu edupareja fernomas
-------------+------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
vfisica |
sexjefho | .00182035
edad | .00002177 5.192e-06
edadpareja | -.00002374 -1.005e-06 1.585e-06
casada | -.00010941 -.00001322 -.00001009 .00135107
hijosmenor | -.00003595 .00001439 -4.435e-07 -8.706e-06 .0005019
nivestu | -5.138e-06 2.969e-06 2.720e-06 -.00007647 -3.416e-06 .00056621
edupareja | .00004231 2.345e-06 -3.559e-07 -.00002235 -2.821e-06 -.00031917 .00085693
fernomas | .00001546 -.00001406 -5.318e-07 .00001331 -.00012389 .00007108 8.129e-06 .00100198
sitlaboral | .00007069 -.0000112 3.360e-06 -.0000243 .00004438 -.00005011 -.00001589 -4.071e-06
parconbeba | -9.036e-06 1.585e-06 -6.721e-07 .00016747 2.285e-06 -.00003417 -3.778e-06 5.652e-06
etniespa | .00007269 -2.897e-06 -1.431e-07 -.00005802 .00016156 -.00019495 -6.559e-06 .00013301
etniaymara | .0000483 6.759e-07 -1.616e-06 -.00032647 .00030257 9.564e-06 -.00008107 -.00005669
etniquechua | 3.051e-06 7.045e-07 9.585e-07 -.00031483 .00017158 .00008457 .00008609 .0000386
telev | -4.473e-06 -4.568e-06 -1.744e-06 -.0000104 .00002482 -.00020442 -.00014994 .00002966
_cons | -.00153292 -.00015728 1.214e-06 .00061996 -.00108518 -.00027502 -.00095355 -.00027585
| vfisica
e(V) | sitlaboral parconbeba etniespa etniaymara etniquec~a telev _cons
-------------+------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
vfisica |
sitlaboral | .00105191
parconbeba | -.00001529 .00166191
etniespa | .00018345 .00002184 .02286717
etniaymara | -.00008374 -.00014426 .02201982 .06361007
etniquechua | -.00003273 -.00001634 .02213431 .02196177 .02487731
telev | .00004006 -.00005923 -.0011805 -.00049842 -.00092298 .002139
_cons | -.00057415 -.00134956 -.02149532 -.02148085 -.0217944 .00018125 .03264968
"
En E-views
"
"
Swkem"@"Guvkocvg"gewcvkqp"
"
"
"
"
"
Fgrgpfgpv"Xctkcdng<"XHKUKEC" " "
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E" /40278944" 203:28;4 /3305:468 202222

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GVPKC[OCTC" 20885985" 20474432 408539:6 2022:7
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"
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UGZLGHJQ" "20:5;:93" "209759;2" "20:35743"
GFCF" "530:762:" "55062747" "54054:;4"
GFCFRCTGLC" "540;;347" "4;055;;6" "530:9576"
ECUCFC" "20525888" "204756;;" "204::52;"
JKLQUOGPQT" "302;578;" "3023:589" "3029276;"
PKXGUVW" "30;9:293" "30::9394" "30;72467"
GFWRCTGLC" "30;479::" "30:79656" "30;26:86"
HGTPQOCU" "2073;643" "207:8::2" "20762293"
UKVNCDQTCN" "207;5855" "208:3563" "208426:4"
RCTEQPDGDC" "20979:9:" "20:8329;" "209:;68;"
GVPKGURC" "20;32576" "20;22368" "20;2944;"
GVPKC[OCTC" "20226724" "20227:53" "20226;2;"
GVPKSWGEJWC" "2028;3;8" "202:7353" "20296296"
VGNGX" "20:5;:29" "20:7;697" "20:67:4:"
Uvcpfctf"
" " Fgxkcvkqp" "
Xctkcdng" Fgr?2" Fgr?3" Cnn"
E" "20222222" "20222222" "20222222"

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GFCF" "90:76:53" ":022:;78" "90;56646"
GFCFRCTGLC" "340:3:39" "380;;942" "36054939"
ECUCFC" "2067;:77" "20657268" "20674;:8"
JKLQUOGPQT" "20928253" "20949674" "209356:4"
PKXGUVW" "209;:69:" "20992976" "209;33:9"
GFWRCTGLC" "2083;:83" "207::35:" "20833347"
HGTPQOCU" "206;;85;" "206;4652" "206;:625"
UKVNCDQTCN" "206;3392" "20687;;2" "206:749:"
RCTEQPDGDC" "2064:5:4" "20567:;2" "206298;7"
GVPKGURC" "204:78:6" "204;;:49" "204;233:"
GVPKC[OCTC" "20288;67" "20298365" "2028;:;2"
GVPKSWGEJWC" "204759;8" "2049;2;9" "20483:;9"
VGNGX" "205889;9" "20569778" "20583344"
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"
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'"Eqttgev" 93042 56094" 82025 8;05; 52083 79074
'"Kpeqttgev" 4:0:2 8704:" 5;0;9 52083 8;05; 6406:
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"
"
En Stata (Resumen)
"
"
Wvknk|ct"nc"xgpvcpc"fg"eqocpfqu"
"
"
LR chi2(14) = 1308.90
Prob > chi2 = 0.0000
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
sexjefho | -.1142876 .0426656 -2.68 0.007 -.1979106 -.0306646
edad | .0316431 .0022785 13.89 0.000 .0271773 .036109
edadpareja | -.0216291 .0012589 -17.18 0.000 -.0240965 -.0191617
casada | -.091891 .0367569 -2.50 0.012 -.1639332 -.0198488
hijosmenor | -.0520437 .0224031 -2.32 0.020 -.0959531 -.0081344
nivestu | -.148179 .0237952 -6.23 0.000 -.1948166 -.1015413
edupareja | -.1243138 .0292733 -4.25 0.000 -.1816885 -.0669392
fernomas | .2039329 .031654 6.44 0.000 .1418922 .2659737
sitlaboral | .2391314 .0324332 7.37 0.000 .1755634 .3026993
parconbeba | .6576488 .0407665 16.13 0.000 .5777479 .7375497
etniespa | .5495303 .151219 3.63 0.000 .2531466 .845914
etniaymara | .6637632 .2522104 2.63 0.008 .1694399 1.158086
etniquechua | .6197602 .1577254 3.93 0.000 .3106241 .9288964
telev | .2741818 .0462494 5.93 0.000 .1835347 .3648289
_cons | -2.056722 .1806922 -11.38 0.000 -2.410872 -1.702572
------------------------------------------------------------------------------"
Measures of Fit for logit of vfisica
Log-Lik Intercept Only: -13803.562 Log-Lik Full Model: -13149.111

D(22395): 26298.221 LR(14): 1308.903
Prob > LR: 0.000
McFadden's R2: 0.047 McFadden's Adj R2: 0.046
Maximum Likelihood R2: 0.057 Cragg & Uhler's R2: 0.080
McKelvey and Zavoina's R2: 0.081 Efron's R2: 0.059
Variance of y*: 3.580 Variance of error: 3.290
Count R2: 0.706 Adj Count R2: 0.041
AIC: 1.175 AIC*n: 26328.221
BIC: -198038.374 BIC': -1168.662
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
En SPSS
"
"
Cpcnk|ct"@"Tgitgukp"@"Nqiuvkec"Dkpctkc"
"
"
"
"
Regresin logstica
"
Resumen de procesamiento de casos"
c
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Ecuqu"ugngeekqpcfqu" Kpenwkfq"gp"gn"cpnkuku" 44632 84.9
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pogtq"vqvcn"fg"ecuqu0"
Codificacin de variable
dependiente"
Xcnqt"qtkikpcn" Xcnqt"kpvgtpq"
2" 2"
3" 3"
"
Bloque 0: Bloque de inicio

"
Tabla de clasificacina,b"
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xhkukec" Rqtegpvclg"
2" 3" eqttgevq"
Rcuq"2" xhkukec" 2" 37772 2 322.2
3" 8:82 2 .2
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c0"Nc"eqpuvcpvg"ug"kpenw{g"gp"gn"oqfgnq0"
d0"Gn"xcnqt"fg"eqtvg"gu".722"
Variables en la ecuacin"
D" Gttqt"guvpfct" Ycnf" in" Uki0" Gzr*D+"
Rcuq"2" Eqpuvcpvg" /.:3:" .236 53:9.:45 3 .222" .663
Las variables no estn en la ecuacin"
Rwpvwcekp" in" Uki0"
Rcuq"2" Xctkcdngu" ugzlghjq" 454.726 3 .222
gfcf" 3:3.;57 3 .222
gfcfrctglc" 52;.39; 3 .222
ecucfc" 7:.5:7 3 .222
jklquogpqt" 74.::6 3 .222
pkxguvw" 84.:55 3 .222
gfwrctglc" 7;.773 3 .222

hgtpqocu" :9.42: 3 .222
ukvncdqtcn" 377.6;: 3 .222
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gvpkgurc" 7.:;5 3 .237
gvpkc{octc" 3.944 3 .3:;
gvpkswgejwc" 39.845 3 .222
vgngx" 36.343 3 .222
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Bloque 1: Mtodo = Entrar
Pruebas mnibus de coeficientes de modelo"
Ejk/ewcftcfq" in" Uki0"
Rcuq"3" Rcuq" 352:.;25" 36 .222
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"
Oqfgnq" 352:.;25" 36 .222
Resumen del modelo"
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Tabla de clasificacina"
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xhkukec" Rqtegpvclg"
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Variables en la ecuacin"
D" Gttqt"guvpfct" Ycnf" in" Uki0" Gzr*D+"

c
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gfcfrctglc" /.244" .223 4;7.399 3 .222" .;9;
ecucfc" /.2;4" .259 8.472 3 .234" .;34
jklquogpqt" /.274" .244 7.5;9 3 .242" .;6;
pkxguvw" /.36:" .246 5:.99; 3 .222" .:84
gfwrctglc" /.346" .24; 3:.256 3 .222" .::5
hgtpqocu" .426" .254 63.729 3 .222" 3.448

ukvncdqtcn" .45;" .254 76.584 3 .222" 3.492
rcteqpdgdc" .87:" .263 482.466 3 .222" 3.;52
gvpkgurc" .772" .373 35.428 3 .222" 3.954
gvpkc{octc" .886" .474 8.;48 3 .22:" 3.;64
gvpkswgejwc" .842" .37: 37.662 3 .222" 3.:7:
vgngx" .496" .268 57.367 3 .222" 3.537
Eqpuvcpvg" /4.279" .3:3 34;.782 3 .222" .34:
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En Minitab
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Guvcfuvkecu"@"Tgitgukp"@"Tgitgukp"Nqiuvkec"Dkpctkc"@"Clwuvct"oqfgnq"nqiuvkeq"dkpctkq"
"
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Regresin logstica binaria: vfisica vs. sexjefho, edad, edadpareja, casada,
hijosmenor, ...
Mtodo
Funcin de enlace Logit

Filas utilizadas 22410
Filas no utilizadas 13356
Informacin de respuesta
Variable Valor Conteo

vfisica 1 6860 (Evento)
0 15550
Total 22410
Tabla de desviaciones
Desv. Media
Fuente GL ajust. ajust. Chi-cuadrada Valor p
Regresin 14 1308.9 93.493 1308.90 0.000
edad 1 194.9 194.944 194.94 0.000
edadpareja 1 301.4 301.375 301.37 0.000
hijosmenor 1 5.4 5.414 5.41 0.020
"
sexjefho 1 7.1 7.117 7.12 0.008
casada 1 6.3 6.274 6.27 0.012
nivestu 1 38.8 38.817 38.82 0.000
edupareja 1 18.0 18.037 18.04 0.000
fernomas 1 41.6 41.619 41.62 0.000
sitlaboral 1 54.8 54.782 54.78 0.000
parconbeba 1 280.1 280.088 280.09 0.000
etniespa 1 14.4 14.370 14.37 0.000
etniaymara 1 6.8 6.813 6.81 0.009
etniquechua 1 16.7 16.691 16.69 0.000
telev 1 35.8 35.846 35.85 0.000
Error 22395 26298.2 1.174
Total 22409 27607.1
Resumen del modelo
R-cuad.
R-cuad. de (ajust) de
desviacin desviacin AIC
4.74% 4.69% 26328.22
Coeficientes
EE del
Trmino Coef coef. VIF
Constante -2.057 0.181
edad 0.03164 0.00228 1.46
edadpareja -0.02163 0.00126 1.59
hijosmenor -0.0520 0.0224 1.14
sexjefho -0.1143 0.0427 1.32
casada -0.0919 0.0368 1.20
nivestu -0.1482 0.0238 1.60
edupareja -0.1243 0.0293 1.43
fernomas 0.2039 0.0317 1.10
sitlaboral 0.2391 0.0324 1.07
parconbeba 0.6576 0.0408 1.02
etniespa 0.550 0.151 8.86
etniaymara 0.664 0.252 1.52
etniquechua 0.620 0.158 8.20
telev 0.2742 0.0462 1.19
Relaciones de probabilidades para predictores continuos
Relacin de
probabilidades IC de 95%
edad 1.0321 (1.0275, 1.0368)
edadpareja 0.9786 (0.9762, 0.9810)
hijosmenor 0.9493 (0.9085, 0.9919)
sexjefho 0.8920 (0.8204, 0.9698)
casada 0.9122 (0.8488, 0.9803)
nivestu 0.8623 (0.8230, 0.9034)
edupareja 0.8831 (0.8339, 0.9353)
fernomas 1.2262 (1.1525, 1.3047)
sitlaboral 1.2701 (1.1919, 1.3535)
parconbeba 1.9302 (1.7820, 2.0908)
etniespa 1.7324 (1.2881, 2.3301)
etniaymara 1.9421 (1.1846, 3.1838)
etniquechua 1.8585 (1.3643, 2.5317)
telev 1.3155 (1.2015, 1.4403)
Ecuacin de regresin
P(1) = exp(Y')/(1 + exp(Y'))
"
Y' = -2.057 + 0.03164 edad - 0.02163 edadpareja - 0.0520 hijosmenor -
0.1143 sexjefho
- 0.0919 casada - 0.1482 nivestu - 0.1243 edupareja + 0.2039 fernomas
+ 0.2391 sitlaboral + 0.6576 parconbeba + 0.550 etniespa + 0.664 etniaymara
+ 0.620 etniquechua + 0.2742 telev
Pruebas de bondad del ajuste
Prueba GL Chi-cuadrada Valor p

Desviacin 22395 26298.22 0.000
Pearson 22395 22432.59 0.428
Hosmer-Lemeshow 8 6.17 0.628
Ajustes y diagnsticos para observaciones poco comunes
Probabilidad Resid
Obs observada Ajuste Resid est.
118 1.0000 0.1171 2.0710 2.07 R
297 0.0000 0.1055 -0.4723 -0.47 X
298 0.0000 0.2579 -0.7724 -0.77 X
299 0.0000 0.1158 -0.4961 -0.50 X
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"
35760 1.0000 0.1682 1.8883 1.89 X
35761 1.0000 0.1440 1.9687 1.97 X
35763 0.0000 0.2375 -0.7364 -0.74 X
35764 1.0000 0.4991 1.1789 1.18 X
Residuo grande R
X poco comn X
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TRABAJO ENCARGADO
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10 Modelos LOGIT

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10 Modelos LOGIT

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OCTUBRE 2016

Ing. Econ. Henry Amiel Condori Portillo

MODELOS DE ESTIMACIN LOGSTICA - LOGIT

RESUMEN TERICO - LOGIT

Probabilidad de que ocurra un evento"

Razn de probabilidades = e ci "

Logaritmo natural de la razn de probabilidades

Caractersticas del modelo LOGIT

ESTIMACIN LOGIT (APLICACIN)

Resultados de la estimacin LOGIT

logit vfisica sexjefho edad edadpareja casada hijosmenor nivestu edupareja

Iteration 0: log likelihood = -13803.562

Logistic regression Number of obs = 22,410

Log-Lik Intercept Only: -13803.562 Log-Lik Full Model: -13149.111

e2.050.11sexjefho +0.03edad 0.02edadpareja 0.09casada +...+0.27telev

Logistic model for vfisica

-------- True --------

Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5

Interpretacin de la estimacin logit:

xhkukec" Eqgh0"*nqikv+" Xcnqtgu"Zk" \k"

e2.050.11sexjefho +0.03edad 0.02edadpareja 0.09casada +...+0.27telev

Adjusted predictions Number of obs = 22,410

Expression : Pr(vfisica), predict()

summarize sexjefho edad edadpareja casada hijosmenor nivestu edupareja

Variable | Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max

Expression : Pr(vfisica), predict()

margins, at(sexjefho=(0) edad=(20) edadpareja=(22) casada=(0)) atmeans post

Adjusted predictions Number of obs = 22,410

Expression : Pr(vfisica), predict()

logit: Changes in Probabilities for vfisica

min->max 0->1 -+1/2 -+sd/2 MargEfct

sexjefho edad edadpareja casada hijosmenor

nivestu edupareja fernomas sitlaboral parconbeba

etniespa etniaymara etniquechua telev

margins, at(sexjefho=(0) edad=(20) edadpareja=(22) casada=(0))

Expression : Pr(vfisica), predict()

margins, at(sexjefho=(0 1) edad=(20) edadpareja=(22) casada=(0))

Expression : Pr(vfisica), predict()

Expression : Pr(vfisica), predict()

Ukp"gfwecekp Rtkoctkc Ugewpfctkc Uwrgtkqt

margins, at(sexjefho=(1) nivestu=(2) edupareja=(0 1 2 3) edad=(25)

Expression : Pr(vfisica), predict()

quietly logit vfisica sexjefho edad edadpareja i.casada hijosmenor

margins, at(sexjefho=(1) nivestu=(3) edupareja=(3) casada=(0 1)

Expression : Pr(vfisica), predict()

margins casada#fernomas, at(sexjefho=(1) nivestu=(3) edupareja=(3))

Expression : Pr(vfisica), predict()

quietly logit vfisica sexjefho edad edadpareja casada hijosmenor i.nivestu

Expression : Pr(vfisica), predict()

Expression : Pr(vfisica), predict()

Ukp"gfwecekp Rtkoctkc Ugewpfctkc Uwrgtkqt

quietly logit vfisica sexjefho edad edadpareja casada hijosmenor

margins, at(sexjefho=(1) nivestu=(3) edupareja=(3) edad=(20(5)80))

Predictive margins Number of obs =

Expression : Pr(vfisica), predict()

marginsplot, yline(0) recastci(rarea)

quietly logit vfisica sexjefho edad edadpareja casada hijosmenor

margins, over(fernomas) at(nivestu=(3) edupareja=(2) edadpareja=(20(5)80))