Revenues

$700,000
$ 140,000
$ 250,000
$ 280,000 $600,000
$ 420,000
$ 530,000
$ 590,000 $500,000
$ 480,000
$ 440,000
$400,000
$ 210,000
Revenues

$ 186,000
$ 123,000 $300,000
$ 90,000

$200,000

$100,000

$-
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Time Period
9 10 11 12
Revenues
$700,000
$ 140,000
$ 250,000
$ 280,000 $600,000
$ 563,000
$ 587,000
$ 538,000 $500,000
$ 555,000
$ 440,000
$400,000
$ 210,000
Revenues

$ 186,000
$ 123,000 $300,000
$ 90,000

$200,000

$100,000

$-
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Time Period
9 10 11 12
Actual Forecast
$ 140,000 #N/A $700,000
$ 250,000 $ 140,000
$ 280,000 $ 217,000
$600,000
$ 563,000 $ 261,100
$ 587,000 $ 472,430
$ 538,000 $ 552,629 $500,000
$ 555,000 $ 542,389
$ 440,000 $ 551,217
$ 210,000 $ 473,365 $400,000

Revenues
$ 186,000 $ 289,009
$ 123,000 $ 216,903 Actual
$300,000
$ 90,000 $ 151,171 Forecast

$200,000

$100,000

$-
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Time Period
 Actual
Forecast

10 11 12
Actual Forecast
$700,000
$ 140,000 #N/A
$ 250,000 $ 140,000
$ 280,000 $ 217,000 $600,000
$ 420,000 $ 261,100
$ 530,000 $ 372,330
$ 590,000 $ 482,699 $500,000
$ 480,000 $ 557,810
$ 440,000 $ 503,343
$400,000
$ 210,000 $ 459,003
Revenues
$ 186,000 $ 284,701
$ 123,000 $ 215,610 Actual
$300,000
Forecast
$ 90,000 $ 150,783

$200,000

$100,000

$-
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Time Period
 Actual
Forecast

0 11 12
Revenues
$ 140,000 #N/A Revenues Linear (Revenues)
$ 250,000 $140,000
$700,000
$ 280,000 217000
$ 420,000 261100
$600,000
$ 530,000 372330
$ 590,000 482699
$ 480,000 557809.7
$500,000
$ 440,000 503342.91
$ 210,000 459002.87
$400,000
$ 186,000 284700.86
Revenues

$ 123,000 215610.26
$ 90,000 $300,000
150783.08

$200,000

$100,000

$-
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Time Period

Standard regression forecasts dont work so well in fact, they dont work at all in catching up with change
in the baselines direction: They provide straight-line (linear) projections. Autoregression forecasts, in which you
regress a baseline on itself, are an exception. They catch up just like moving averages and smoothing.
 9 10 11 12

all in catching up with changes

egression forecasts, in which you
erages and smoothing.
 $35,000
Time Period Revenues
1 $ 21,000 Correlation -0.38
2 $ 14,500 $30,000
3 $ 29,060 Z-value for correlation -2.35
4 $ 32,430
5 $ 9,300 Probability that true 0.93% $25,000
6 $ 26,380 correlation = 0
7 $ 17,640
8 $ 18,240 $20,000

Revenues
9 $ 26,420
10 $ 26,400
$15,000
11 $ 20,000
12 $ 26,380
13 $ 15,300 $10,000
14 $ 7,000
15 $ 30,600
16 $ 20,560 $5,000
17 $ 23,520
18 $ 11,110
19 $ 29,440 $-
0 5 10
20 $ 13,810
21 $ 16,280
22 $ 9,950
23 $ 29,500
24 $ 14,930 Testing a correlations statistical sig
25 $ 7,460
26 $ 17,780
27 $ 17,370
28 $ 26,480
29 $ 10,430
30 $ 15,320
31 $ 8,810
32 $ 19,000
33 $ 13,140
34 $ 9,000
35 $ 15,100
36 $ 20,500
37 $ 9,500
38 $ 14,500
39 $ 20,000
5,000

0,000

5,000

0,000

5,000

0,000

5,000

$-
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

Time Period

orrelations statistical significance

Time Period Revenues
1 $ 21,000 Correlation -0.38
2 $ 14,500
3 $ 29,060 Z-value for correlation -2.35
4 $ 32,430
5 $ 9,300 Probability that true correlation = 0 0.93%
6 $ 26,380
$35,000
7 $ 17,640
8 $ 18,240 $30,000
9 $ 26,420
10 $ 26,400 $25,000
11 $ 20,000
12 $ 26,380 $20,000
Revenues

13 $ 15,300
14 $ 7,000 $15,000
15 $ 30,600
$10,000
16 $ 20,560
17 $ 23,520
$5,000
18 $ 11,110
19 $ 29,440
$-
20 $ 13,810 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
21 $ 16,280 Time Period
22 $ 9,950
23 $ 29,500
24 $ 14,930
25 $ 7,460
26 $ 17,780
27 $ 17,370
28 $ 26,480
29 $ 10,430
30 $ 15,320
31 $ 8,810
32 $ 19,000
33 $ 13,140
34 $ 9,000
35 $ 15,100
36 $ 20,500
37 $ 9,500
38 $ 14,500
39 $ 20,000
40 45
Sales ($000) Time Period Unit Price Sales Force Advertising ($000)
$ 251,897 1 240 52 $ 3,149
$ 154,426 2 265 56 $ 19,303
$ 237,450 3 255 59 $ 23,745
$ 201,980 4 281 58 $ 50,495
$ 271,298 5 257 54 $ 13,565
$ 260,171 6 247 54 $ 65,043
$ 243,231 7 275 51 $ 24,323
$ 281,218 8 265 53 $ 31,637
$ 330,765 9 260 59 $ 66,153
$ 289,533 10 273 50 $ 21,715
$ 332,443 11 253 53 $ 12,467
$ 241,126 12 262 55 $ 12,056
$ 153,515 13 278 41 $ 23,027
$ 119,380 14 276 22 $ 4,477
$ 200,280 15 267 33 $ 40,056
$ 141,599 16 264 20 $ 5,310
$ 210,875 17 258 22 $ 18,452
$ 285,605 18 281 22 $ 42,841
$ 298,577 19 272 23 $ 11,197
$ 259,678 20 242 20 $ 9,738
$ 255,948 21 287 56 $ 22,395
$ 305,582 22 260 32 $ 37,948
$ 235,109 23 270 22 $ 35,266
$ 256,463 24 254 32 $ 57,704
$ 281,613 25 255 55 $ 10,560
$ 276,382 26 286 56 $ 27,638
$ 332,443 27 263 43 $ 63,892
$ 294,902 28 235 27 $ 34,980
$ 309,349 29 240 33 $ 46,532
$ 227,207 30 245 20 $ 3,149
$ 319,119 31 240 37 $ 37,383
$ 332,443 32 263 43 $ 62,984
$ 325,522 33 245 40 $ 58,690
$ 319,291 34 240 37 $ 48,993
$ 332,443 35 263 43 $ 61,254
$ 332,443 36 263 43 $ 63,892
$ 289,172 37 240 24 $ 26,285
$ 332,443 38 263 43 $ 55,090
$ 330,628 39 256 42 $ 48,219
$ 332,443 40 263 43 $ 65,673
Revenue Estimates ($000)
$ 121,806
$ 160,487
$ 215,323
$ 251,289
$ 132,589
$ 158,200
$ 104,498
$ 330,361
$ 238,259
$ 361,302
$ 350,477
$ 118,257
$ 184,314
$ 131,311
$ 204,771
$ 136,308
$ 240,851
$ 221,149
$ 106,862
$ 161,538
$ 278,345
$ 149,876
$ 94,001
$ 165,103
$ 279,605
$ 83,172
$ 251,714
$ 134,441
$ 179,572
$ 83,172
$ 210,092
$ 251,714
$ 230,095
$ 210,630
$ 251,714
$ 251,714
$ 116,540
$ 251,714
$ 246,045
$ 251,714
 Sales Advertising Revenue Estimates
Sales ($000) Time Period Unit Price Force ($000) ($000)
Sales ($000) 1
Time Period 0.56 1
Unit Price -0.32 -0.26 1
Sales Force 0.17 -0.40 0.21 1
Advertising ($000) 0.57 0.45 -0.04 0.16 1
Revenue Estimates ($000) 0.40 0.07 0.12 0.38 0.34 1

Sales Advertising Revenue Estimates

Sales ($000) Time Period Unit Price Force ($000) ($000)
$ 251,897 1 240 52 $ 3,149 $ 121,806
$ 154,426 2 265 56 $ 19,303 $ 160,487
$ 237,450 3 255 59 $ 23,745 $ 215,323
$ 201,980 4 281 58 $ 50,495 $ 251,289
$ 271,298 5 257 54 $ 13,565 $ 132,589
$ 260,171 6 247 54 $ 65,043 $ 158,200
$ 243,231 7 275 51 $ 24,323 $ 104,498
$ 281,218 8 265 53 $ 31,637 $ 330,361
$ 330,765 9 260 59 $ 66,153 $ 238,259
$ 289,533 10 273 50 $ 21,715 $ 361,302
$ 332,443 11 253 53 $ 12,467 $ 350,477
$ 241,126 12 262 55 $ 12,056 $ 118,257
$ 153,515 13 278 41 $ 23,027 $ 184,314
$ 119,380 14 276 22 $ 4,477 $ 131,311
$ 200,280 15 267 33 $ 40,056 $ 204,771
$ 141,599 16 264 20 $ 5,310 $ 136,308
$ 210,875 17 258 22 $ 18,452 $ 240,851
$ 285,605 18 281 22 $ 42,841 $ 221,149
$ 298,577 19 272 23 $ 11,197 $ 106,862
$ 259,678 20 242 20 $ 9,738 $ 161,538
$ 255,948 21 287 56 $ 22,395 $ 278,345
$ 305,582 22 260 32 $ 37,948 $ 149,876
$ 235,109 23 270 22 $ 35,266 $ 94,001
$ 256,463 24 254 32 $ 57,704 $ 165,103
$ 281,613 25 255 55 $ 10,560 $ 279,605
$ 276,382 26 286 56 $ 27,638 $ 83,172
$ 332,443 27 263 43 $ 63,892 $ 251,714
$ 294,902 28 235 27 $ 34,980 $ 134,441
$ 309,349 29 240 33 $ 46,532 $ 179,572
$ 227,207 30 245 20 $ 3,149 $ 83,172
$ 319,119 31 240 37 $ 37,383 $ 210,092
$ 332,443 32 263 43 $ 62,984 $ 251,714
$ 325,522 33 245 40 $ 58,690 $ 230,095
$ 319,291 34 240 37 $ 48,993 $ 210,630
$ 332,443 35 263 43 $ 61,254 $ 251,714
$ 332,443 36 263 43 $ 63,892 $ 251,714
$ 289,172 37 240 24 $ 26,285 $ 116,540
$ 332,443 38 263 43 $ 55,090 $ 251,714
$ 330,628 39 256 42 $ 48,219 $ 246,045
$ 332,443 40 263 43 $ 65,673 $ 251,714
 Time Advertising Revenue Estimates
Sales ($000) Period ($000) ($000) SUMMARY OUTPUT
$ 251,897 1 $ 3,149 $ 121,806
$ 154,426 2 $ 19,303 $ 160,487 Regression Statistics
$ 237,450 3 $ 23,745 $ 215,323 Multiple R 0.71
$ 201,980 4 $ 50,495 $ 251,289 R Square 0.51
$ 271,298 5 $ 13,565 $ 132,589 Adjusted R Square 0.46
$ 260,171 6 $ 65,043 $ 158,200 Standard Error 42863.566
$ 243,231 7 $ 24,323 $ 104,498 Observations 40
$ 281,218 8 $ 31,637 $ 330,361
$ 330,765 9 $ 66,153 $ 238,259 ANOVA
$ 289,533 10 $ 21,715 $ 361,302 df
$ 332,443 11 $ 12,467 $ 350,477 Regression 3
$ 241,126 12 $ 12,056 $ 118,257 Residual 36
$ 153,515 13 $ 23,027 $ 184,314 Total 39
$ 119,380 14 $ 4,477 $ 131,311
$ 200,280 15 $ 40,056 $ 204,771 Coefficients
$ 141,599 16 $ 5,310 $ 136,308 Intercept 156152.39
$ 210,875 17 $ 18,452 $ 240,851 Time Period 2044.6583
$ 285,605 18 $ 42,841 $ 221,149 Advertising ($000) 0.8364456
$ 298,577 19 $ 11,197 $ 106,862 Revenue Estimates ($000) 0.2176488
$ 259,678 20 $ 9,738 $ 161,538
$ 255,948 21 $ 22,395 $ 278,345
$ 305,582 22 $ 37,948 $ 149,876
$ 235,109 23 $ 35,266 $ 94,001
$ 256,463 24 $ 57,704 $ 165,103
$ 281,613 25 $ 10,560 $ 279,605
$ 276,382 26 $ 27,638 $ 83,172
$ 332,443 27 $ 63,892 $ 251,714
$ 294,902 28 $ 34,980 $ 134,441
$ 309,349 29 $ 46,532 $ 179,572
$ 227,207 30 $ 3,149 $ 83,172
$ 319,119 31 $ 37,383 $ 210,092
$ 332,443 32 $ 62,984 $ 251,714
$ 325,522 33 $ 58,690 $ 230,095
$ 319,291 34 $ 48,993 $ 210,630
$ 332,443 35 $ 61,254 $ 251,714
$ 332,443 36 $ 63,892 $ 251,714
$ 289,172 37 $ 26,285 $ 116,540
$ 332,443 38 $ 55,090 $ 251,714
$ 330,628 39 $ 48,219 $ 246,045
$ 332,443 40 $ 65,673 $ 251,714
 SS MS F Significance F
67639514632 22546504877 12.27 0.00
66142269278 1837285258
133781783910

Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%
22546.21 6.93 0.00 110426.55 201878.23 110426.55 201878.23
659.35 3.10 0.00 707.43 3381.89 707.43 3381.89
0.39 2.12 0.04 0.04 1.64 0.04 1.64
0.10 2.16 0.04 0.01 0.42 0.01 0.42