FR 12 Answers

1. (a) A one-sample proportions -test will be run.

Hypotheses:
Let be the true proportion of female athletes at the pre-Olympic exhibition.
H0: = 0.42
HA: > 0.42

Conditions:
We are told that a random sample of women were taken.
We assume that there are more than 454 athletes at the exhibitions.
Both np = (454)(0.42) = 190.68 > 10 and nq = (454)(0.58) = 263.32 > 10 so we can use a
normal approximation for the sampling distribution of .

Calculations:
0.445 - 0.42
z= = 1.09
( 0.42 )( 0.58)
454

P( p > 0.445 ) = P(z> 1.09) = 0.138

Conclusion:
Since the p-value is greater than 0.05, we fail to reject the null hypothesis that the proportion of
female athletes is 0.42. There is NOT enough evidence to suggest that the proportion of female
athletes will increase.

(b) Type II error. Companies do not change their advertising when they should have.

Scoring Guidelines:
There are four components. Component 1 is the Hypotheses and Conditions step, Component 2
is the Calculations step, Component 3 is the Conclusions step, and Component 4 is part (b).
Each component is scored essentially correct (E), partially correct (P), or incorrect (I). Each E is 1
point, each P is point. Round total score to lower integer.

4 Complete Response
3 Substantial Response
2 Developing Response
1 Minimal Response
2. (a) Let the digits 00-04 represent bad CDs and the digits 05-99 represent good CDs. Look at
pairs of digits in the random number table to determine if the CD is good or bad. Do not exclude
duplicates as we are not selecting specific CDs to sample. Stop when you get five good CDs.

(b) Let B = bad and G = good.

Trial Simulation Outcome
#1 03|24|2 5|06|92| 18|977 28370
6 CDs
B G G G G G
#2 78|69|7 8|14|02| 85|525 81 183
6 CDs
G G G G B G
#3 60|80|9 0|67|65| 39996 81915
5 CDs
G G G G G

(c) According to my simulation, it will take an average of 5 + 6 + 6 = 5.67 CDs to get five good
CDs. However, if I were to predict the theoretical average of CDs to get five good CDs, the value
would be 5.26 CDs (500 95).

Scoring Guidelines:

Each part is scored essentially correct (E), partially correct (P), or incorrect (I).

Part (a) is scored essentially correct if the response includes the following THREE components:
Appropriate selection of random digits (5% are bad, 95% are good)
Description of duplicates are OK (dont have to say why)
Stopping rule (must say stop after 5 good CDs, not just CDs)
Part (a) is scored partially correct if the response includes only TWO of the above components.
Part (a) is scored incorrect if the response includes NONE or ONE of the above components.

Part (b) is scored essentially correct if the response shows a valid mark-up of the random digit
table according the description made in part (a).
Part (b) is scored partially correct if the response does not clearly indicate which are B versus G
CDs OR does not include the outcome of each trial.
Part (b) is scored incorrect if the response does not clearly indicate which are B versus G CDs
AND does not include the outcome of each trial (or provides an unclear use of random digits).

Part (c) is scored essentially correct if the values 5.67 or 5.26 are computed AND the work or
explanation of the value is included.
Part (c) is scored partially correct if the values 5.67 or 5.26 are computed BUT no work or
explanation is given OR the value is incorrect but work was shown.
Part (c) is scored incorrect if the value is incorrect and no work or explanation was given.

4 Complete Response
EEE
3 Substantial Response
EEP
2 Developing Response
EPP, EPI, EEI, PPP
1 Minimal Response
EII, PPI
3.