Technician – Macro/Fixed Income Research

Technician – Macro/Fixed Income Research – July 26 2009

Recommendations and opinions in this material are based solely on technical analysis. You can find
fundamentally based recommendations in our FI & FX CEE Insights.

Overview of technical recommendations

Current recommendations:
1) Gold short, open @ 1188.5, target @ 1140.00, stop-loss @ 1205.00. Speculation on mid-term downtrend.
Time horizon: 6 weeks
2) Platinum long, open @ 1545, target @ 1700.00, stop-loss @ 1515.00. Speculation on mid-term upward trend
after expected breakthrough of 1548.5 level/200-day moving average. Time horizon: 8 weeks

Instrument Direction Open Opened Target Stop-loss P/L (%) comment

Gold short 1188.55 26.7.2010 1140 1205 6 weeks remaining
Platinum long 1545 26.7.2010 1700 1515 8 weeks remaining

Summary
EUR/CZK
Combination of 25.00 level and almost oversold euro should prevent immediate breakthrough of 25.00 level. Short
correction back above is likely, but downward momentum should ensure continuation of downtrend later.

EUR/PLN
Confirmed breakthrough of combination of 4.07 level and 60- and 200-day moving averages should open room for
strengthening to 3.973 level. However, more likely scenario is return to 4.07-4.19 range.

EUR/HUF
Most likely technical scenario is consolidation below 290 level. Upward momentum is weakening, so testing of lower
bound of range is possible later on.

EUR/RON
Weakening upward momentum increased likelihood of drop towards 60-day moving average.

EUR/TRY
MACD buy signal must be confirmed by breakthrough of 20- and 60-day moving averages before it may be considered
valid. We can expect decline below 1.90 in such case. Otherwise, consolidation in range determined by 60- and 200-
day moving averages is likely.

EUR/USD
Weakening upward momentum increases risk of pull-back towards 1.25 level. It seems that 1.30 level is safe for now.

EUR/JPY
Consolidation should continue. Testing of 113.5 level is increasingly likely (prevailing upward momentum).

EUR/CHF
Testing of combination of 1.3758 level and 60-day moving average is possible. Upward momentum is still strong.

Brent
Testing of 80 level is possible, but breakthrough is unlikely because of ambiguous momentum (ROC).

Analyst: Luboš Mokráš

lmokras@csas.cz

Erste Group – Technician

Page 1
Technician – Macro/Fixed Income Research

EUR/CZK

Main trend: decline
Koruna strengthened to below 25.20 level.

Short-term trend: decline
MACD is in declining trend below zero level. It is
oversold.
R6: 26.80 top

Both ROCs are in declining trend below zero level.
R5: 26.40 consolidation
RSI is testing oversold level.
R4: 26.00 psychological, top, bottom
Combination of 25.00 level and almost oversold euro
R3: 25.80 consolidations should prevent immediate breakthrough of 25.00 level.
R2: 25.45 consolidation Short correction back above is likely, but downward
R1: 25.20 consolidation momentum should ensure continuation of downtrend
S1: 25.00 psychological, bottom later on.
S2: 24.80 consolidation
Daily QEURCZK= 17.12.2009 - 4.8.2010 (GMT)

SMA;; 25,4093 Price

EMA;; 25,5163
26,4007 CZK
Cndl;; 25,1420
EMA;; 25,5953

26,3
26,2
26,1
26,0012
26
25,9
25,7988 25,8
25,7
25,6
25,5
25,4584

25,4
25,3
25,1973 25,2
25,1
25,0044
.1234

21 28 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 01 08 15 22 29 05 12 19 26 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02
XII 09 I 10 II 10 III 10 IV 10 V 10 VI 10 VII 10

Daily QEURCZK= 14.9.2009 - 2.8.2010 (GMT)

Value
CZK

0,1

-0,1
.1234

Value
CZK

2
0
-2
.123

Value
CZK

80
60
40
20
.123

16 01 16 02 16 01 16 01 18 01 16 01 16 01 16 03 17 01 16 01 16 02
IX 09 X 09 XI 09 XII 09 I 10 II 10 III 10 IV 10 V 10 VI 10 VII 10

Erste Group – Technician

Page 2
Technician – Macro/Fixed Income Research
EUR/PLN

Main trend: consolidation
Zloty is testing lower bound of 4.07-4.19 range.

Short-term trend: decline
MACD is in volatile downward trend. It is testing zero
level.
R3: 4.19 top

Both ROCs turned downwards. ROC60 is above zero
R2: 4.15 top, consolidation level, ROC20 is below zero level.
R1: 4.07 bottoms, Fibonacci level
RSI returned below neutral level.
S1: 3.973 bottom, consolidation
Confirmed breakthrough of combination of 4.07 level
S2: 3.93 tops and 60- and 200-day moving averages should open room for
S3: 3.863 bottom, bottom of consolidation, Fibonacci level strengthening to 3.973 level. However, more likely is return to
S4: 3.83 top, top of consolidation 4.07-4.19 range.
Daily QEURPLN= 1.10.2009 - 4.8.2010 (GMT)

Cndl;; 4,0370 Price

3MA;; 4,0920; 4,0688; 4,0638 PLN

38,2% 4,2733

4,25

4,1917
4,2

4,15

4,1
50,0% 4,0682

4,05

4
3,9732

3,95

3,9
61,8% 3,863

3,85
.1234
05 12 19 26 02 09 16 23 30 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 01 08 15 22 29 05 12 19 26 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02
X 09 XI 09 XII 09 I 10 II 10 III 10 IV 10 V 10 VI 10 VII 10

Daily QEURPLN= 13.10.2009 - 2.8.2010 (GMT)

Value
PLN

0,03

-0,03
.1234

Value
PLN

-5
.123

Value
PLN

80
60
40
20
.123
19 26 02 09 16 23 30 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 01 08 15 22 29 05 12 19 26 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02
X 09 XI 09 XII 09 I 10 II 10 III 10 IV 10 V 10 VI 10 VII 10

Erste Group – Technician

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Technician – Macro/Fixed Income Research
EUR/HUF

Main trend: growth
Forint is in volatile consolidation in 283 - 290 range.

Short-term trend: growth
MACD rebounded from zero level.

ROC20 is fluctuating wildly above zero level. ROC60
R1: 290 tops
is in volatile sideways trend and is overbought.
S1: 283 top
RSI is in sideways trend above neutral level.
S2: 279 tops
Most likely technical scenario is consolidation below
S3: 272.4 top, Fibonacci level 290 level. Upward momentum is weakening, so testing of
S4: 266 tops lower bound of range is possible later on.
S5: 264.5 bottoms
S6: 261.85 Fibonacci level, bottom level of consolidation range
S7: 258 tops, bottom level of consolidation
Daily QEURHUF= 1.10.2009 - 4.8.2010 (GMT)
Price
SMA;; 283,54 HUF
EMA;; 279,81
Cndl;; 285,01 290,03
EMA;; 276,41

288

285
38,2% 282,95

282

279,02 279

276

50,0% 272,4
273

270

267
266

264
61,8% 261,85

.12
05 12 19 26 02 09 16 23 30 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 01 08 15 22 29 05 12 19 26 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02
X 09 XI 09 XII 09 I 10 II 10 III 10 IV 10 V 10 VI 10 VII 10

Daily QEURHUF= 13.10.2009 - 2.8.2010 (GMT)

Value
HUF

2
1
0
-1
.12

Value
HUF

.123

Value
HUF

80
60
40
20
.123
19 26 02 09 16 23 30 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 01 08 15 22 29 05 12 19 26 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02
X 09 XI 09 XII 09 I 10 II 10 III 10 IV 10 V 10 VI 10 VII 10

Erste Group – Technician

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Technician – Macro/Fixed Income Research
EUR/RON

Main trend: growth
Lei paused in its short-term weakening trend.

Short-term trend: growth
MACD is in sideways trend above zero level.

ROC60 is in consolidation above zero level. ROC60
R2: 4.385 top
declined sharply below zero level.
R1: 4.2934 consolidation, top
RSI is in sideways trend slightly above neutral level.
S1: 4.23 Fibonacci level, bottom of consolidation
Weakening upward momentum increased likelihood of
S2: 4.19 bottoms drop towards 60-day moving average.
S3: 4.11 bottoms, Fibonacci level
S4: 4.07 Fibonacci projection, bottoms
S5: 3.97 Fibonacci projection level, top
S6: 3.80 top
Daily QEURRON= 1.10.2009 - 4.8.2010 (GMT)

SMA;; 4,2686 Price

EMA;; 4,2264 4,3848 RON
Cndl;; 4,2520
EMA;; 4,2005

4,36

4,32
0,0% 4,2954

4,28

4,24

4,1911
4,2

4,16

4,12
23,6% 4,1085

4,0794 4,08

.1234
05 12 19 26 02 09 16 23 30 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 01 08 15 22 29 05 12 19 26 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02
X 09 XI 09 XII 09 I 10 II 10 III 10 IV 10 V 10 VI 10 VII 10

Daily QEURRON= 1.10.2009 - 4.8.2010 (GMT)

MACD;; 0,0044; 0,0071
Value
MACDF;; -0,0027
RON

0,02

-0,02
.1234
ROC;; -2,544
Value
ROC;; 3,004
EMA;; 3,227 RON

-4
.123
RSI;; 49,746
Value
MARSI;; 50,419
RON

80
60
40
20
.123
05 12 19 26 02 09 16 23 30 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 01 08 15 22 29 05 12 19 26 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02
X 09 XI 09 XII 09 I 10 II 10 III 10 IV 10 V 10 VI 10 VII 10

Erste Group – Technician

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Technician – Macro/Fixed Income Research
EUR/TRY

Main trend: decline
Lira rebounded from 200-day moving average

Short-term trend: growth to combination of 20- and 60-day moving averages and
is now in consolidation.
R7: 2.1871 top of consolidation

MACD sent buy signal for lira.
R6: 2.1447 bottom of consolidation
ROC60 is in rising trend and is testing zero
R5: 2.115 Fibonacci level, consolidations level. ROC20 dropped close to zero level.
R4: 2.075 bottoms
RSI declined to neutral level.
R3: 2.04 Fibonacci level, bottoms
MACD buy signal must be confirmed by
R1: 2.00 bottom, psychological breakthrough of 20- and 60-day moving averages
S1: 1.967 Fibonacci level, top of consolidation range bottom before it may be considered valid. We can expect
decline below 1.90 in such case. Otherwise,
S2: 1.8825 bottom of consolidation range consolidation in range determined by 60- and 200-day
moving averages is likely.
Daily QEURTRY= 1.10.2009 - 4.8.2010 (GMT)

SMA;; 1,9616 Price

EMA;; 1,9605 2,2934 TRY
Cndl;; 1,9620
EMA;; 1,9937 2,28

2,24

2,2
2,1836

2,16

2,12

2,08
2,051

2,04

1,96

1,92
1,8988
.1234
05 12 19 26 02 09 16 23 30 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 01 08 15 22 29 05 12 19 26 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02
X 09 XI 09 XII 09 I 10 II 10 III 10 IV 10 V 10 VI 10 VII 10

Daily QEURTRY= 13.10.2009 - 2.8.2010 (GMT)

Value
TRY

0,01
0
-0,01
-0,02
.1234

Value
TRY

-5
.123

Value
TRY

80
60
40
20
.123
19 26 02 09 16 23 30 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 01 08 15 22 29 05 12 19 26 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02
X 09 XI 09 XII 09 I 10 II 10 III 10 IV 10 V 10 VI 10 VII 10

Erste Group – Technician

Page 6
Technician – Macro/Fixed Income Research
EUR/USD

Main trend: decline
Dollar is in consolidation below 1.30 level.

Short-term trend: consolidation
MACD is in slowing upward trend. It is above zero
level and overbought.
R4: 1.38 Fibonacci level, top

Both ROCs are in rising trend. ROC20 is above and
R3: 1.3488 Fibonacci level ROC60 is below zero level.
R2: 1.327 local low
RSI is slightly below overbought level.
R1: 1.300 psychological
Weakening upward momentum increases risk of pull-
S1: 1.290 local low back towards 1.25 level. It seems that 1.30 level is safe for
S2: 1.250 important local low now.
S3: 1.217 bottom of consolidation
S4: 1.200 psychological
S5: 1.190 bottom
Daily QEUR= 1.10.2009 - 4.8.2010 (GMT)
0,0% 1,5141
SMA;1,2692 Price
EMA;1,2684 USD
Cndl;1,2925
EMA;1,2985

1,47
23,6% 1,451

1,44

38,2% 1,4119
1,41

50,0% 1,3804
1,38

61,8% 1,3488 1,35

1,32

1,29

1,26
100,0% 1,2466

1,23

1,2
1,1907 .1234
05 12 19 26 02 09 16 23 30 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 01 08 15 22 29 05 12 19 26 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02
X 09 XI 09 XII 09 I 10 II 10 III 10 IV 10 V 10 VI 10 VII 10

Daily QEUR= 13.10.2009 - 2.8.2010 (GMT)

Value
USD

-0,01

-0,02
.1234

Value
USD

0
-5
-10
.123

Value
USD

80
60
40
20
.123
19 26 02 09 16 23 30 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 01 08 15 22 29 05 12 19 26 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02
X 09 XI 09 XII 09 I 10 II 10 III 10 IV 10 V 10 VI 10 VII 10

Erste Group – Technician

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Technician – Macro/Fixed Income Research
EUR/JPY

Main trend: decline
EURJPY is in consolidation below 113.5 level.

Short-term trend: consolidation
MACD is testing zero level.
R7: 132.5 Fibonacci level
ROC20 is in consolidation around zero level. ROC60
R6: 129.0 tops of consolidations, Fibonacci level is in slow rising trend and is still oversold.

RSI is in rising trend above neutral level.
R5: 126.0 bottom level of consolidation, tops, Fibonacci level

Consolidation should continue. Testing of 113.5 level
R4: 123.0 Fibonacci level is increasingly likely (prevailing upward momentum).
R3: 120.74 Fibonacci level, bottom
R2: 117.0 bottoms
R1: 113.5 bottom
S1: 110 psychological
S2: 108.7 bottom
Daily QEURJPY= 1.10.2009 - 4.8.2010 (GMT)
0,0% 138,4
SMA;; 111,36 Price
EMA;; 113,63 JPY
Cndl;; 112,47
EMA;; 117,44

135
23,6% 132,54
132

38,2% 128,91 129

50,0% 125,97 126

61,8% 123,04
123
120,74

120

117

100,0% 113,54 114

111
108,72
108
.12
05 12 19 26 02 09 16 23 30 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 01 08 15 22 29 05 12 19 26 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02
X 09 XI 09 XII 09 I 10 II 10 III 10 IV 10 V 10 VI 10 VII 10

Daily QEURJPY= 13.10.2009 - 2.8.2010 (GMT)

Value
JPY

0
-1
-2
-3
.12

Value
JPY

0
-5

-10
.123

Value
JPY

80
60
40
20
.123
19 26 02 09 16 23 30 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 01 08 15 22 29 05 12 19 26 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02
X 09 XI 09 XII 09 I 10 II 10 III 10 IV 10 V 10 VI 10 VII 10

Erste Group – Technician

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Technician – Macro/Fixed Income Research
EUR/CHF

Main trend: decline
EURCHF fell to 20-day moving average and then

Short-term trend: correction rebounded from it.

MACD is sharply rising.
R4: 1.435 top of consolidation

Both ROCs are rising. ROC20 rose above zero level,
R3: 1.4257 bottom ROC60 remains below zero level.
R2: 1.4000 psychological
RSI is wavering around neutral level.
R1: 1.3758 low
Testing of combination of 1.3758 level and 60-day
S1: 1.318 low moving average is possible. Upward momentum is still strong.
Daily QEURCHF= 1.10.2009 - 4.8.2010 (GMT)

SMA;1,3409 Price
EMA;1,3751 CHF
Cndl;1,3577
38,2% 1,5044
EMA;1,4049
1,5

1,48
23,6% 1,4744

1,46

1,435
1,44
0,0% 1,4257

1,42

1,4

1,3758
1,38

1,36

1,34

1,3184 1,32
.1234
05 12 19 26 02 09 16 23 30 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 01 08 15 22 29 05 12 19 26 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02
X 09 XI 09 XII 09 I 10 II 10 III 10 IV 10 V 10 VI 10 VII 10

Daily QEURCHF= 13.10.2009 - 2.8.2010 (GMT)

Value
CHF

0
-0,005
-0,01
-0,015
-0,02
.1234

Value
CHF

-2
-4
-6
.123

Value
CHF

80
60
40
20
.123
19 26 02 09 16 23 30 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 01 08 15 22 29 05 12 19 26 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02
říjen 2009 listopad 2009 prosinec 2009 leden 2010 únor 2010 březen 2010 duben 2010 květen 2010 červen 2010 červenec 2010

Erste Group – Technician

Page 9
Technician – Macro/Fixed Income Research
Brent

Main trend: consolidation
Brent is close to testing of 80 psychological level.

Short-term trend: growth
MACD is in rising trend above zero level.

Both ROCs are in slow declining trend. ROC20 is
R3: 86 top
testing zero level, ROC60 is below zero level.
R2: 82 top. Bottom of consolidation range
RSI is in slow rising trend above neutral level.
R1: 80 psychological, top of consolidation range
Testing of 80 level is possible, but breakthrough is
S1: 78 top, consolidation unlikely because of ambiguous momentum (ROC).
S2: 75 top
S3: 72 top. bottom
Daily QBRT- 29.9.2009 - 9.8.2010 (UTC)

SMA;; 75,68 Price

EMA;; 76,27 86,91 100,0% 86,87 USD
Cndl;; 78,04 Bbl
EMA;; 76,29 86

85

84

83

82,02 61,8% 82 82

81
50,0% 80,5
80

79,01 38,2% 78,99 79

78

23,6% 77,13 77

76

75

0,0% 74,12 74

73

72

71
70,28
70

69

68

67

66

65
64,76
.12
05 12 19 26 02 09 16 23 30 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 01 08 15 22 29 06 12 19 26 04 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02 09
X 09 XI 09 XII 09 I 10 II 10 III 10 IV 10 V 10 VI 10 VII 10

Daily QBRT- 8.9.2009 - 3.8.2010 (UTC)

Value
USD
Bbl
1
0,5
0
-0,5
-1
-1,5
-2
-2,5
-3
.12

Value
USD
Bbl

0
-5

-10

-15
-20
.123

Value
USD
Bbl

70

60

50

40

30

20

10
.123
14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02 09 16 23 30 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 01 08 15 22 29 06 12 19 26 04 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02
IX 09 X 09 XI 09 XII 09 I 10 II 10 III 10 IV 10 V 10 VI 10 VII 10

Erste Group – Technician

Page 10
Technician – Macro/Fixed Income Research
Closed trading ideas
Instrument Direction Open Opened Target Stop-loss P/L (%) Comment
EURRON long 3.529 18.8.2008 3.660 3.40 +0.45% closed on time
EURHUF short 233.86 25.8.2008 229.00 236.00 -1.13% closed stop-loss
EURUSD long 1.4788 25.8.2008 1.5600 1.4580 -1.41% closed stop-loss
Copper long 357.23 25.8.2008 398.00 355.00 -0.62% closed stop loss
EURUSD long 1.4605 1.9.2008 1.5600 1.4480 -0.86% closed stop loss
Gold long 774.2 15.9.2008 860 745 +11.11%closed on target
EURCZK long 24.128 15.9.2008 24.90 23.90 -0.9% closed stop loss
EURPLN short 3.343 15.9.2008 3.22 3.365 -0.65% closed stop loss
EURUSD long 1.418 15.9.2008 1.56 1.44 +1.55% closed lock in
EURJPY long 156.23 22.9.2008 168.0 153.8 -1.56% closed stop loss
Oil Brent long 101.7 22.9.2008 118 98 -3.64% closed stop loss
Copper long 314.33 29.9.2008 330 309 -1.7% closed stop loss
Lead short 1858 29.9.2008 1770 1895 +4.97% closed on target
Gold short 896.4 29.9.2008 870 910 -1.49% closed stop loss
Platinum long 1087,5 29.9.2008 1230 1060 -2.53% closed stop loss
Brent long 85.2 6.10.2008 80 87 +6.5% closed on target
EURHUF long 251.2 6.10.2008 258 248 -1.27% closed stop loss
Oil Brent long 76 13.10.2008 90 74.5 +2.56% closed lock in
Brent long 69.6 20.10.2008 90.0 68.0 -2.30% closed stop loss
EURJPY long 136.7 13.10.2008 156.0 133.0 -2.71% closed stop loss
EURPLN short 3.55 13.10.2008 3.28 3.63 -2.20% closed stop loss
EURHUF short 268.38 20.10.2008 245.0 274.0 -2.05% closed stop loss
EURUSD long 1.3428 20.10.2008 1.4300 1.3220 -1.94% closed stop loss
Copper short 223.85 20.10.2008 145.0 190.0 +17.82% closed lock in
Gold long 730 27.10.2008 830 740.0 +1.37% closed lock in
EURCHF short 1.4412 27.10.2008 1.3620 1.4650 -1.62 closed stop loss
Platinum short 751 27.10.2008 600 775 -3.1% closed stop loss
EURUSD short 1.2462 27.10.2008 1.1830 1.2650 -1.49% closed stop loss
EURRON long 3.744 10.11.2008 3.970 3.650 +0.96% closed lock in
EURJPY long 116.41 27.10.2008 140.0 120.0 +3.08% closed lock in
Platinum short 859 10.11.2008 595 905 +2.44% closed on time
Lead long 1225 24.11.2008 1475 1175 -4.08% closed stop loss
Brent long 47.64 24.11.2008 65 44.8 -6.02% closed stop loss
Copper long 175 10.11.2008 300 145 -17.14% closed stop loss
EURRON short 3.80 24.11.2008 3.60 3.88 -2.06% closed stop loss
EURROL short 4.3145 12.1.2009 4.070 4.420 +1.28% closed lock in
EURUSD short 1.3355 12.1.2009 1.275 1.365 +3.1% closed on time
EURCHF long 1.4883 12.1.2009 1.570 1.46 +1.01% closed on time
EURJPY long 118.57 19.1.2009 133.0 116.0 -2.17% closed stop loss
Platinum short 947.5 19.1.2009 880 975 -2.27% closed on time
Lead short 1159 26.1.2009 1055 1220 +3.95% closed on time
EURRON short 4.2465 26.1.2009 4.0700 4.32 -1.7% closed stop loss
EURCHF long 1.5032 26.1.2009 1.57 1.483 -1.34% closed stop loss
Copper long 149.6 19.1.2009 240.0 155.0 +3.61% %closed lock in
EURPLN short 4.818 16.2.2009 4.42 4.87 -1.07% closed stop loss
EURUSD long 1.2588 2.3.2009 1.2980 1.2450 -0.18% closed on time
EURCZK long 28.18 2.3.2009 29.80 28.00 -0.64% closed stop loss
Gold long 932.7 2.3.2009 985.0 920.0 -1.36% closed stop loss
EURJPY long 117.15 16.2.2009 128.0 121.0 +6.10% closed on time
Gold long 914.65 9.3.2009 985 920 +0.58% closed lock in
EURPLN short 4.4458 16.3.2009 3.95 4.55 -2.29% closed stop loss
EURJPY short 128 16.3.2009 117 129.5 -1.16% closed stop loss
EURUSD long 1.3005 16.3.2009 1.43 1.35 +3.81% closed lock in
EURJPY long 131.58 23.3.2009 150 128 -2.40% closed stop loss
Lead long 1286 16.3.2009 1500 1180 +3.42% closed on time
Oil Brent long 51.45 23.3.2009 70 47 -8.65% closed stop loss
EURCZK long 27.45 30.3.2009 28.70 26.90 -2.32% closed stop loss
EURUSD short 1.3194 30.3.2009 1.28 1.3325 -0.98% closed stop loss

Erste Group – Technician

Page 11
Technician – Macro/Fixed Income Research
EURPLN short 4.4351 6.4.2009 4.15 4.55 +2.29% closed on time
EURCZK long 26.591 6.4.2009 27.90 26.30 -0.94% closed on time
Copper long 147.15 23.2.2009 240.0 200.0 +35.92% closed lock in
EURPLN short 4.382 11.5.2009 4.12 4.42 -0.86% closed stop loss
EURUSD long 1.351 18.5.2009 1.280 1.365 -1.03% closed stop loss
Gold long 929.4 18.5.2009 980 918 +5.44% closed profit target
EUR/PLN short 4.409 25.5.2009 4.16 4.46 -1.1% closed stop loss
Brent short 70.51 15.6.2009 49.5 70.0 +0.73% closed lock in
EURUSD short 1.386 22.6.2009 1.3617 1.395 -0.65% closed stop loss
EURCZK short 26.03 22.6.2009 24.80 26.45 +0.5% closed on time
Platinum short 1183.5 29.6.2009 1120 1210 +3.54% closed on time
EURJPY short 132.67 22.6.2009 115.5 136.5 -2.81% closed stop loss
Gold short 953.25 10.8.2009 910 973 +1.61% closed on time
Platinum short 1242 10.8.2009 1110 1330 -1.00% closed on time
EURJPY short 132.87 17.8.2009 128 135.3 -1.80% stop loss
EURPLN short 4.1105 24.8.2009 3.98 4.155 +0.26% closed on time
Copper short 288.12 17.8.2009 255 295 -2.33% closed stop loss
EURJPY short 133.04 31.8.2009 126.5 134.5 +0.54% closed on time
Gold short 999.0 14.9.2009 955.0 1010.000 -1.08% closed stop loss
Platinum long 1349.5 19.10.2009 1440 1335 -1.07% closed stop loss
Brent short 78.59 26.10.2009 72.1 80.6 +4.09% closed lock in
Lead short 2304.852.11.2009 2250 2350 +0.34% closed on time
EURCZK short 26.11 30.11.2009 25.45 26.55 +1.3% closed on time
EURHUF short 273.05 30.11.2009 264 276.5 +1.31% closed on time
EURJPY long 130.4 30.11.2009 135 128.5 -0.61% closed on time
EURHUF short 273.69 14.12.2009 266 276.5 -0.66% closed stop loss
EURJPY long 129.6 14.12.2009 134.5 128.0 -1.23% closed stop loss
Copper short 316 14.12.2009 285 330 -2.80% closed on time
Brent long 73.21 21.12.2009 78 71 +6.54% closed profit target
EURJPY long 129.94 21.12.2009 138 127.5 +3.36% closed on time
EURUSD long 1.436 21.12.2009 1.53 1.415 +0.08% closed on time
EURCZK short 26.26 4.1.2010 25.55 26.55 +1.54% closed on time
Copper long 339.5 18.1.2010 400 325 -4.27% stop loss
Lead short 2250.3 25.1.2010 2080 2285 +8.19% closed profit target
EURJPY long 127.66 25.1.2010 138 125 -2.08% stop loss
EURCHF long 1.4722 1.2.2010 1.4950 1.4620 -0.69% stop loss
Platinum long 1530 1.2.2010 1640 1475 +1.31% lock in
Brent long 72.17 1.2.2010 82 70.5 +3.23% lock in
Copper short 308.6 1.2.2010 280 316 +6.53% closed on time
Gold short 1122.7522.2.2010 1060 1145 +0.53% closed on time
EURUSD long 1.362 22.2.2010 1.408 1.342 -0.85% closed on time
EURJPY short 120.59 1.3.2010 117 122.3 -1.40% stop loss
Brent long 72.17 15.2.2010 82.0 79.5 +10.16%lock in
Lead long 2181 1.3.2010 2350 2240 +2.71% lock in
Platinum long 1550 1.3.2010 1640 1520 +4.13% closed on time
Gold short 1125.9 8.3.2010 1064 1145 +2.10% closed on time
Copper short 338.6 22.3.2010 290 345 -1.86% stop loss
EURPLN long 3.893 22.3.2010 4.05 3.87 -0.59% stop loss
Lead long 2186 29.3.2010 2600 2080 +0.87% closed on time
EURRON long 4.1225 12.4.2010 4.23 4.10 +0.76% closed on time
Platinum long 1725.5 12.4.2010 2000 1670 -3.22% stop loss
Copper short 353.3 26.4.2010 342 357 +3.3% closed profit target
EURRON short 4.1161 26.4.2010 3.95 4.145 -0.7% stop loss
Platinum long 1744.5 26.4.2010 2200 1640 -5.99% stop loss
EURON short 4.126 3.5.2010 3.95 4.165 -0.94% stop loss
Copper long 329.6 3.5.2010 362 325 -1.40% stop loss
Gold long 1183 3.5.2010 1215 1165 -1.52% stop loss
Lead short 2230 3.5.2010 2020 2275 +10.4% closed profit target
EURHUF long 273.7 10.5.2010 269 275.5 -0.65% stop loss
Lead long 2110 10.5.2010 2200 2070 -1.90% stop loss
Copper long 321.45 10.5.2010 335 315 -2.01% stop loss

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Technician – Macro/Fixed Income Research
Gold short 1193.4 10.5.2010 1080 1215 -1.78% stop loss
EURJPY long 114.6 17.5.2010 120 112 -2.27% stop loss
Brent long 74.17 17.5.2010 79 73 -1.58% stop loss
Copper long 305.25 17.5.2010 325 298 -2.38% stop loss
Lead short 1903 17.5.2010 1600 1950 +7.51% lock in
Copper long 305.25 17.5.2010 325 298 -2.61% stop loss
Brent long 69.63 25.5.2010 79 67 -3.78% stop loss
Platinum long 1526 25.5.2010 1640 1450 +2.39% closed on time
Lead short 1830 25.5.2010 1520 1860 +7.65% lock in
EURJPY long 111.95 25.5.2010 119 108 -2.82% closed on time
EURPLN short 4.10 25.5.2010 3.86 4.22 +0.61% closed on time
Copper short 307.15 31.5.2010 295 314 +4.12% closed profit target
Gold short 1216.2 31.5.2010 1140 1230 -1.12% stop loss
EURPLN short 4.0322 21.6.2010 3.87 4.08 -1.17% stop loss
EURJPY long 112.98 21.6.2010 126 111 -1.75% stop loss
EURCHF long 1.3729 21.6.2010 1.395 1.367 -0.43% stop loss
Brent short 77.24 28.6.2010 74.00 78.00 +4.38% closed profit target
Lead long 1840 28.6.2010 2000 1815 -1.36% stop loss
Platinum long 1561.5 31.5.2010 1740 1500 -3.94% stop loss
Gold long 1202.6 12.7.2010 1240 1195 -0.63% stop loss
EURCHF long 1.3371 12.7.2010 1.3758 1.3255 +1.5% closed on time

Erste Group – Technician

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Technician – Macro/Fixed Income Research
Contacts
Group Research
Head of Group Research
Friedrich Mostböck, CEFA +43 (0)5 0100 - 11902 Research Turkey
CEE Equity Research Head: Erkin Sahinoz (Fixed Income) +90 212 371 2540
Co-Head: Günther Artner, CFA +43 (0)5 0100 - 11523 Ali Cakiroglu (Fixed Income) +90 212 371 2536
Co-Head: Henning Eßkuchen +43 (0)5 0100 - 19634 Sadrettin Bagci (Equity) +90 212 371 2537
Günter Hohberger (Banks) +43 (0)5 0100 - 17354 Can Oztoprak (Equity) +90 212 371 2539
Franz Hörl, CFA (Steel, Construction) +43 (0)5 0100 - 18506 Research, Slovakia
Gernot Jany, CFA (Banks, Real Estate) +43 (0)5 0100 - 11903 Head: Juraj Barta, CFA (Fixed income) +421 2 4862 4166
Daniel Lion, CIIA (IT) +43 (0)5 0100 - 17420 Michal Musak (Fixed income) +421 2 4862 4512
Christoph Schultes, CIIA (Insurance, Utility) +43 (0)5 0100 - 16314 Maria Valachyova (Fixed income) +421 2 4862 4185
Thomas Unger; CFA (Oil&Gas) +43 (0)5 0100 - 17344 Research, Ukraine
Vera Sutedja, CFA (Telecom) +43 (0)5 0100 - 11905 Head: Victor Stefanyshyn (Fixed Income) +38 044 593 - 1784
Vladimira Urbankova, MBA (Pharma) +43 (0)5 0100 - 17343 Svitlana Bazilevich (Equity) +38 044 593 - 9286
Gerald Walek, CFA (Machinery) +43 (0)5 0100 - 16360 Maryan Zablotskyy (Fixed income) +38 044 593 - 9188
International Equities Fixed Income & Credit Institutional Sales
Hans Engel (Market strategist) +43 (0)5 0100 - 19835 Group Institutional Sales
Stephan Lingnau (Europe) +43 (0)5 0100 - 16574 Head: Jaromir Malak +43 (0)50100 - 84254
Ronald Stöferle (Asia) +43 (0)5 0100 - 11723 Fixed Income & Credit Institutional Sales G7
Macro/Fixed Income Research Head: Thomas Almen +43 (0)50100 - 84323
Head: Gudrun Egger, CEFA (Euroland) +43 (0)5 0100 - 11909 Institutional Sales Austria
Mildred Hager (SW, Japan) +43 (0)5 0100 - 17331 Head: Thomas Almen +43 (0)50100 – 84323
Alihan Karadagoglu (Corporates) +43 (0)5 0100 - 19633 Martina Fux +43 (0)50100 - 84113
Peter Kaufmann (Corporates) +43 (0)5 0100 - 11183 Michael Konczer +43 (0)50100 - 84121
Carmen Riefler-Kowarsch (Corporates) +43 (0)5 0100 - 19632 Margit Hraschek +43 (0)50100 - 84117
Rainer Singer (US) +43 (0)5 0100 - 11185 Institutional Sales Germany
Elena Statelov, CIIA (Corporates) +43 (0)5 0100 - 19641 Head: Ingo Lusch +43 (0)50100 - 84111
Macro/Fixed Income Research CEE Michael Schmotz +43 (0)50100 - 84114
Co-Head CEE: Juraj Kotian (Macro/FI) +43 (0)5 0100 - 17357 Institutional Sales London
Co-Head CEE: Rainer Singer (Macro/FI) +43 (0)5 0100 – 11185 Antony Brown +44 20 7623 - 4159
Editor Research CEE Lukas Linsbichler +44 20 7623 - 4159
Brett Aarons +420 233 005 904 Simone Pilz +44 20 7263 - 4159
Research, Croatia/Serbia Institutional Sales Slovakia
Head: Mladen Dodig +381 11 22 00 866 Head: Peter Kniz +421 2 4862-5624
Alen Kovac (Fixed income) +385 62 37 1383 Sarlota Sipulova +421 2 4862-5629
Davor Spoljar (Equity) +385 62 37 2825 Institutional Sales Czech Republic
Research, Czech Republic Head: Ondrej Cech +420 2 2499 - 5577
Head: David Navratil (Fixed income) +420 224 995 439 Pavel Zdichynec +420 2 2499 - 5590
Petr Bartek (Equity) +420 224 995 227 Milan Bartos +420 2 2499 - 5562
Vaclav Kminek (Media) +420 224 995 289 Radek Chupik +420 2 2499 - 5565
Jana Krajcova (Fixed income) +420 224 995 232 Institutional Sales Croatia, Hungary, Romania
Radim Kramule (Oil&Gas) +420 224 995 213 Head: Jaromir Malak +43 (0)501 00 - 84254
Martin Lobotka (Fixed income) +420 224 995 192 Institutional Sales Croatia
Lubos Mokras (Fixed income) +420 224 995 456 Natalija Petljak +385 (0)6237 - 1638
Research, Hungary Institutional Sales Hungary
Head: József Miró (Equity) +361 235-5131 Istvan Kovacs +36 1 235 – 5846
Bernadett Papp (Equity) +361 235-5135 Norbert Siklosi +36 1 235 - 5842
Gergely Gabler (Equity) +361 253-5133 Institutional Sales Romania
Zoltan Arokszallasi (Fixed income) +361 373-2830 Ruxandra Carlan +40 21 310-4449-612
Research, Poland Ciprian Mitu +43 (0)50100 - 84253
Head: Artur Iwanski (Equity) +48 22 330 6253 International & High End Sales
Magda Zabieglik (Equity) +48 22 330 6250 Head: Zachary Carvell +43 (0)50100 - 83308
Tomasz Kasowicz (Equity) +48 22 330 6251 Piotr Zagan +43 (0)50100 - 84256
Piotr Lopaciuk (Equity) +48 22 330 6252 Ulrich Inhofner +43 (0)50100 - 84324
Marek Czachor (Equity) +48 22 330 6254 Darko Horvatin +43 (0)50100 - 84259
Bianka Madej (Equity) +48 22 330 6260 Ciprian Mitu +43 (0)50100 - 84253
Research, Romania
Head: Lucian Claudiu Anghel +40 21 312 6773
Mihai Caruntu (Equity) +40 21 311 27 54
Dumitru Dulgheru (Fixed income) +40 21 312 6773 1028
Cristian Mladin (Fixed income) +40 21312 6773 1028
Eugen Sinca (Fixed income) +40 21312 6773 1028
Raluca Ungureanu (Equity) +40 21311 2754

Treasury - Erste Bank Vienna

Saving Banks & Sales Retail
Head: Thomas Schaufler +43 (0)5 0100 - 84225
Equity Retail Sales
Head: Kurt Gerhold +43 (0)5 0100 - 84232
Fixed Income & Certificate Sales
Head: Markus Kaller +43 (0)5 0100 - 84239
Treasury Domestic Sales
Head: Gottfried Huscava +43 (0)5 0100 - 84142
Corporate Sales
Head: Christian Skopek +43 (0)5 0100 - 84146

Erste Group – Technician

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Technician – Macro/Fixed Income Research

Published by Erste Group Bank AG, Neutorgasse 17, 1010 Vienna, Austria.
Phone +43 (0)5 0100 – 17357 or 11185.
Erste Bank Homepage: www.erstegroup.com On Bloomberg please type: ERBK <GO>.

This research report was prepared by Erste Group Bank AG (”Erste Group”) or its affiliate named herein. The information herein has been obtained from, and any
opinions herein are based upon, sources believed reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. All opinions,
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Please refer to www.erstegroup.com for the current list of specific disclosures and the breakdown of Erste Group’s investment recommendations.

Erste Group – Technician

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