Aug 02 Erste Group Technician

Technician – Macro/Fixed Income Research
Technician – Macro/Fixed Income Research – August 2, 2010

Recommendations and opinions in this material are based solely on technical analysis. You can find
fundamentally based recommendations in our FI & FX CEE Insights.
Overview of technical recommendations

Current recommendations:
1) Copper long, open @ 329.3, target @ 400, stop-loss @ 319. Lock in levels: 365/340, 380/370. Speculation on
continuation of uptrend. Time horizon: 8 weeks
2) Brent short, open @ 82.02, target @ 76, stop-loss @ 83.5. Lock in levels: 80.3/81, 77.5/78.5. Speculation on
rebound from 82 resistance. Time horizon: 1 week
3) Lead long, open @ 2110.7, target @ 2380, stop-loss @ 2045. Lock in levels: 2200/2160, 2280/2250.
Speculation on continuation of uptrend. Time horizon: 8 weeks
Instrument Direction Open Opened Target Stop-loss P/L (%) Comment

Gold short 1188.55 26.7.2010 1140 1205 +0.91% 5 weeks remaining
Platinum long 1545 26.7.2010 1700 1515 +2.20% 7 weeks remaining
Copper long 329.3 2.8.2010 400 319 8 weeks remaining
Brent short 82.02 2.8.2010 76 83.5 1 week remaining
Lead long 2110.7 2.8.2010 2380 2045 8 weeks remaining
Summary
EUR/CZK
Pullback to 25.00 level is likely because of strongly oversold conditions. Second possibility is prolonged consolidation
in 25.65 – 25.80 range.
EUR/PLN
3.973 level and almost oversold conditions may trigger correction or consolidation. Breakthrough of 3.973 should open
room for another decline towards 3.863, but this does not seem likely in near future.
EUR/HUF
Strengthening to 279 level is likely because of downward momentum accumulation.
EUR/RON
Most likely short-term technical scenario is consolidation in range defined by 20- and 60-day moving averages.
EUR/TRY
Consolidation should continue for some time. Later on, decline is likely, because of development of momentum.
EUR/USD
Breakthrough of psychological 1.30 level and 200-day moving average significantly increase risk of continuation of
uptrend to 1.3488 level. However, almost overbought conditions may cause near-term consolidation above mentioned
levels.
EUR/JPY
Consolidation should continue for some time. Testing of 113.5 should eventually be successful.
EUR/CHF
Testing of combination of 1.3758 level and 60-day moving average is likely. Upward momentum is still strong, albeit
weakening.
Copper
Short correction is increasingly likely, but trend should continue to 400 level.
Analyst: Luboš Mokráš

lmokras@csas.cz
Erste Group – Technician
Page 1
EUR/CZK
Main trend: decline Koruna broke through psychologically important 25.00
Short-term trend: decline level and then strengthened rapidly.
MACD is in declining trend below zero level. It is strongly
R6: 26.00 psychological, top, bottom
oversold.
R5: 25.80 consolidations Both ROCs declined sharply and are showing signs of
R4: 25.45 consolidation rebound. Both are below zero level and are oversold.
R3: 25.20 consolidation RSI is oversold.
R2: 25.00 psychological, bottom Pullback to 25.00 level is likely because of strongly
R1: 24.80 consolidation oversold conditions. Second possibility is prolonged
S1: 24.65 bottoms consolidation in 25.65 – 25.80 range.
Daily QEURCZK= 24.12.2009 - 11.8.2010 (GMT)
SMA;; 25,1841 Price

26,4007
EMA;; 25,4019 CZK
Cndl;; 24,7220
EMA;; 25,5295
26,2
26,0012
26
25,7988 25,8
25,6
25,4584
25,4
25,1973 25,2
25,0044
25
24,8137
24,8
24,6519
.1234
28 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 01 08 15 22 29 05 12 19 26 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02 09
I 10 II 10 III 10 IV 10 V 10 VI 10 VII 10
Daily QEURCZK= 31.12.2009 - 9.8.2010 (GMT)
Value
CZK
-0,1
-0,2
.1234
Value
CZK
2
0
-2
-4
.123
Value
CZK
80
60
40
20
.123
04 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 01 08 15 22 29 05 12 19 26 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02 09
I 10 II 10 III 10 IV 10 V 10 VI 10 VII 10
Page 2
EUR/PLN
Main trend: consolidation Zloty broke through 4.07 level and strengthened to
Short-term trend: decline 3.973 level.
MACD is in volatile downward trend. It declined
R3: 4.19 top
below zero level.
R2: 4.15 top, consolidation Both ROCs generally declined, but are showing
R1: 4.07 bottoms, Fibonacci level some signs of rebound. Both are below zero level.
S1: 3.973 bottom, consolidation RSI declined close to oversold level.
S2: 3.93 tops 3.973 level and almost oversold conditions may
S3: 3.863 bottom, bottom of consolidation, Fibonacci level trigger correction or consolidation. Breakthrough of 3.973 level
S4: 3.83 top, top of consolidation should open room for another decline towards 3.863 level, but
this does not seem likely in near future.
Daily QEURPLN= 22.12.2009 - 9.8.2010 (GMT)
Cndl;; 3,9810 Price

3MA;; 4,0586; 4,0594; 4,0611 PLN
4,1917
4,2
4,16
4,12
4,08
50,0% 4,0682
4,04
4
3,9732
3,96
3,92
3,88
61,8% 3,863
3,84
.1234
28 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 01 08 15 22 29 05 12 19 26 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02 09
XII 09 I 10 II 10 III 10 IV 10 V 10 VI 10 VII 10
Daily QEURPLN= 31.12.2009 - 9.8.2010 (GMT)
Value
PLN
0,03
-0,03
.1234
Value
PLN
-5
.123
Value
PLN
80
60
40
20
.123
04 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 01 08 15 22 29 05 12 19 26 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02 09
I 10 II 10 III 10 IV 10 V 10 VI 10 VII 10
Page 3
EUR/HUF
Main trend: growth Forint is testing 283 level.
Short-term trend: decline MACD returned to declining trend. It is above zero level
Both ROCs declined. ROC60 is above zero level, ROC20
R1: 290 tops
is below zero level.
S1: 283 top RSI is in sideways trend above neutral level.
S2: 279 tops Strengthening to 279 level is likely because of downward
S3: 273 top, Fibonacci level momentum accumulation.
S4: 266 tops
S5: 264.5 bottoms
S6: 261.85 Fibonacci level, bottom level of consolidation
range
S7: 258 tops, bottom level of consolidation
Daily QEURHUF= 22.12.2009 - 9.8.2010 (GMT)
Price
SMA;; 282,83 HUF
EMA;; 280,33
Cndl;; 281,53 290,03
EMA;; 276,96
288
285
38,2% 282,95
282
279,02 279
276
50,0% 272,4
273
270
267
266
264
61,8% 261,85
.12
28 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 01 08 15 22 29 05 12 19 26 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02 09
XII 09 I 10 II 10 III 10 IV 10 V 10 VI 10 VII 10
Daily QEURHUF= 31.12.2009 - 9.8.2010 (GMT)
Value
HUF
2
1
0
-1
.12
Value
HUF
.123
Value
HUF
80
60
40
20
.123
04 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 01 08 15 22 29 05 12 19 26 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02 09
I 10 II 10 III 10 IV 10 V 10 VI 10 VII 10
Page 4
EUR/RON
Main trend: growth Lei is in consolidation above 4.23 level.
Short-term trend: consolidation MACD is in declining trend above zero level.
ROC60 is in consolidation above zero level. ROC60
R2: 4.385 top
rebounded towards zero level.
R1: 4.2934 consolidation, top RSI is in sideways trend slightly above neutral level.
S1: 4.23 Fibonacci level, bottom of consolidation Most likely short-term technical scenario is
S2: 4.19 bottoms consolidation in range defined by 20- and 60-day moving
S3: 4.11 bottoms, Fibonacci level averages.
S4: 4.07 Fibonacci projection, bottoms
S5: 3.97 Fibonacci projection level, top
S6: 3.80 top
Daily QEURRON= 12.1.2010 - 9.8.2010 (GMT)
SMA;; 4,2485 Price

EMA;; 4,2293 4,3848 RON
Cndl;; 4,2400
EMA;; 4,2041
4,36
4,32
0,0% 4,2954
4,28
4,24
4,1911
4,2
4,16
4,12
23,6% 4,1085
4,0794 4,08
.1234
18 25 01 08 15 22 01 08 15 22 29 05 12 19 26 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02 09
I 10 II 10 III 10 IV 10 V 10 VI 10 VII 10
Daily QEURRON= 12.1.2010 - 9.8.2010 (GMT)

MACD;; -0,0001; 0,0030
Value
MACDF;; -0,0032
RON
0,02
-0,02
.1234
ROC;; -0,341
Value
ROC;; 1,850
EMA;; 2,588 RON
-4
.123
RSI;; 46,580
Value
MARSI;; 50,520
RON
80
60
40
20
.123
18 25 01 08 15 22 01 08 15 22 29 05 12 19 26 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02 09
I 10 II 10 III 10 IV 10 V 10 VI 10 VII 10
Page 5
EUR/TRY
Main trend: decline Lira is in consolidation around combination of 20-
Short-term trend: consolidation and 60-day moving averages/1.967 level.
MACD is in declining trend. It is above zero level.
R7: 2.1871 top of consolidation
Both ROCs are close to zero level and in sideways
R6: 2.1447 bottom of consolidation trend.
R5: 2.115 Fibonacci level, consolidations RSI is in sideways slightly above neutral level.
R4: 2.075 bottoms Consolidation should continue for some time.
R3: 2.04 Fibonacci level, bottoms Later on, decline is likely because of development of
R1: 2.00 bottom, psychological momentum.
S1: 1.967 Fibonacci level, top of consolidation range bottom
S2: 1.8825 bottom of consolidation range
Daily QEURTRY= 12.1.2010 - 9.8.2010 (GMT)
SMA;; 1,9636 Price

EMA;; 1,9607 TRY
Cndl;; 1,9530
EMA;; 1,9912
2,13
2,1
2,07
2,051
2,04
2,010
1,98
1,95
1,92
1,8988
.1234
18 25 01 08 15 22 01 08 15 22 29 05 12 19 26 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02 09
I 10 II 10 III 10 IV 10 V 10 VI 10 VII 10
Daily QEURTRY= 31.12.2009 - 9.8.2010 (GMT)
Value
TRY
-0,01
-0,02
.1234
Value
TRY
-5
.123
Value
TRY
80
60
40
20
.123
04 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 01 08 15 22 29 05 12 19 26 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02 09
I 10 II 10 III 10 IV 10 V 10 VI 10 VII 10
Page 6
EUR/USD
Main trend: decline Dollar broke through 1.30 level and 200-day moving
Short-term trend: growth average.
MACD is in slowing upward trend. It is above zero
R3: 1.38 Fibonacci level, top
level and overbought.
R2: 1.3488 Fibonacci level Both ROCs are above zero level. ROC20 is in
R1: 1.327 local low sideways trend and ROC60 is in rising trend.
S1: 1.300 psychological RSI is slightly below overbought level.
S2: 1.290 local low Breakthrough of psychological 1.30 level and 200-day
S3: 1.250 important local low moving average significantly increase risk of continuation of
S4: 1.217 bottom of consolidation uptrend to 1.3488 level. However, almost overbought
conditions may cause near-term consolidation above
S5: 1.200 psychological mentioned levels.
S6: 1.190 bottom
Daily QEUR= 12.1.2010 - 9.8.2010 (GMT)
SMA;1,2852
23,6% 1,451 Price
EMA;1,2740 USD
Cndl;1,3064
EMA;1,2990 1,44
38,2% 1,4119
1,41
50,0% 1,3804
1,38
61,8% 1,3488 1,35
1,32
1,29
1,26
100,0% 1,2466
1,23
1,2
1,1907 .1234
18 25 01 08 15 22 01 08 15 22 29 05 12 19 26 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02 09
I 10 II 10 III 10 IV 10 V 10 VI 10 VII 10
Daily QEUR= 31.12.2009 - 9.8.2010 (GMT)
Value
USD
-0,01
-0,02
.1234
Value
USD
0
-5
-10
.123
Value
USD
80
60
40
20
.123
04 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 01 08 15 22 29 05 12 19 26 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02 09
I 10 II 10 III 10 IV 10 V 10 VI 10 VII 10
Page 7
EUR/JPY
Main trend: decline EURJPY is testing 113.5 level.
Short-term trend: consolidation MACD is in rising trend above zero level.
R7: 132.5 Fibonacci level Both ROCs first sharply rose, then sharply declined.
R6: 129.0 tops of consolidations, Fibonacci level ROC20 is above zero level, ROC60 is below zero level.
RSI is in slow rising trend above neutral level.
R5: 126.0 bottom level of consolidation, tops, Fibonacci level
Consolidation should continue for some time. Testing
R4: 123.0 Fibonacci level of 113.5 level should eventually be successful.
R3: 120.74 Fibonacci level, bottom
R2: 117.0 bottoms
R1: 113.5 bottom
S1: 110 psychological
S2: 108.7 bottom
Daily QEURJPY= 12.1.2010 - 9.8.2010 (GMT)
SMA;; 112,45 Price

EMA;;
23,6% 113,61
132,54 JPY
Cndl;; 113,27
EMA;; 117,13 132
130
38,2% 128,91
128
50,0% 125,97 126
124
61,8% 123,04
122
120,74
120
118
116
100,0% 113,54
114
112
110
108,72
108
.12
18 25 01 08 15 22 01 08 15 22 29 05 12 19 26 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02 09
I 10 II 10 III 10 IV 10 V 10 VI 10 VII 10
Daily QEURJPY= 31.12.2009 - 9.8.2010 (GMT)
Value
JPY
0
-1
-2
-3
.12
Value
JPY
0
-5
-10
.123
Value
JPY
80
60
40
20
.123
04 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 01 08 15 22 29 05 12 19 26 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02 09
I 10 II 10 III 10 IV 10 V 10 VI 10 VII 10
Page 8
EUR/CHF
Main trend: decline EURCHF is testing 1.3758 level.
Short-term trend: growth MACD is sharply rising. It is just above zero level.
Both ROCs are rising. ROC20 is above zero level,
R4: 1.435 top of consolidation
ROC60 remains below zero level.
R3: 1.4257 bottom RSI is in volatile upward trend above neutral level.
R2: 1.4000 psychological Testing of combination of 1.3758 level and 60-day
R1: 1.3758 low moving average is likely. Upward momentum is still strong, albeit
S1: 1.318 low weakening.
Daily QEURCHF= 12.1.2010 - 9.8.2010 (GMT)
38,2% 1,5044
SMA;1,3514 Price
EMA;1,3741 CHF
Cndl;1,3675
EMA;1,4020
1,48
23,6% 1,4744
1,46
1,435
1,44
0,0% 1,4257
1,42
1,4
1,3758
1,38
1,36
1,34
1,3184 1,32
.1234
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I 10 II 10 III 10 IV 10 V 10 VI 10 VII 10
Daily QEURCHF= 31.12.2009 - 9.8.2010 (GMT)
Value
CHF
0
-0,005
-0,01
-0,015
-0,02
.1234
Value
CHF
-4
.123
Value
CHF
80
60
40
20
.123
04 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 01 08 15 22 29 05 12 19 26 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02 09
I 10 II 10 III 10 IV 10 V 10 VI 10 VII 10
Page 9
Copper
Main trend: consolidation Copper is in sharp rising trend.
Short-term trend: growth MACD is in rising trend above zero level. It is
overbought.
R4: 400 psychological, top
Both ROCs are in sharp rising trend. Both are above
R3: 380 consolidation zero level.
R2: 360 top, bottoms RSI is touching overbought level.
R1: 330 top, bottom Short correction is increasingly likely, but trend should
S1: 315 bottoms continue to 400 level.
S2: 300 psychological, top, bottom
S3: 280 bottoms
Daily QCU-NYC 27.12.2009 - 3.8.2010 (GMT)
SMA; QCU-NYC; Last Quote(Last); 20; Price

30.7.2010; 312,07 USc
EMA; QCU-NYC; Last Quote(Last); 60; Lbs
30.7.2010; 313,32
Line; QCU-NYC; Last Quote(Last);
30.7.2010; 335,90 356
EMA; QCU-NYC; Last Quote(Last); 120;
30.7.2010; 316,15 352
348
344
340
336
332
328
324
320
316
312
308
304
300
296
292
288
284
.12
28 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 01 08 15 22 29 05 12 19 26 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02
I 10 II 10 III 10 IV 10 V 10 VI 10 VII 10
Daily QCU-NYC 7.1.2010 - 4.8.2010 (GMT)
Value
USc
Lbs
3
-3
-6
-9
.12
Value
USc
Lbs
0
-5
-10
-15
.123
Value
USc
Lbs
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
.123
11 18 25 01 08 15 22 01 08 15 22 29 05 12 19 26 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02
I 10 II 10 III 10 IV 10 V 10 VI 10 VII 10
Page 10
Closed trading ideas

Instrument Direction Open Opened Target Stop-loss P/L (%) Comment
EURRON long 3.529 18.8.2008 3.660 3.40 +0.45% closed on time
EURHUF short 233.86 25.8.2008 229.00 236.00 -1.13% closed stop-loss
EURUSD long 1.4788 25.8.2008 1.5600 1.4580 -1.41% closed stop-loss
Copper long 357.23 25.8.2008 398.00 355.00 -0.62% closed stop loss
EURUSD long 1.4605 1.9.2008 1.5600 1.4480 -0.86% closed stop loss
Gold long 774.2 15.9.2008 860 745 +11.11%closed on target
EURCZK long 24.128 15.9.2008 24.90 23.90 -0.9% closed stop loss
EURPLN short 3.343 15.9.2008 3.22 3.365 -0.65% closed stop loss
EURUSD long 1.418 15.9.2008 1.56 1.44 +1.55% closed lock in
EURJPY long 156.23 22.9.2008 168.0 153.8 -1.56% closed stop loss
Oil Brent long 101.7 22.9.2008 118 98 -3.64% closed stop loss
Copper long 314.33 29.9.2008 330 309 -1.7% closed stop loss
Lead short 1858 29.9.2008 1770 1895 +4.97% closed on target
Gold short 896.4 29.9.2008 870 910 -1.49% closed stop loss
Platinum long 1087,5 29.9.2008 1230 1060 -2.53% closed stop loss
Brent long 85.2 6.10.2008 80 87 +6.5% closed on target
EURHUF long 251.2 6.10.2008 258 248 -1.27% closed stop loss
Oil Brent long 76 13.10.2008 90 74.5 +2.56% closed lock in
Brent long 69.6 20.10.2008 90.0 68.0 -2.30% closed stop loss
EURHUF short 268.38 20.10.2008 245.0 274.0 -2.05% closed stop loss
Copper short 223.85 20.10.2008 145.0 190.0 +17.82% closed lock in
Gold long 730 27.10.2008 830 740.0 +1.37% closed lock in
EURCHF short 1.4412 27.10.2008 1.3620 1.4650 -1.62 closed stop loss
Platinum short 751 27.10.2008 600 775 -3.1% closed stop loss
EURUSD short 1.2462 27.10.2008 1.1830 1.2650 -1.49% closed stop loss
EURRON long 3.744 10.11.2008 3.970 3.650 +0.96% closed lock in
EURJPY long 116.41 27.10.2008 140.0 120.0 +3.08% closed lock in
Platinum short 859 10.11.2008 595 905 +2.44% closed on time
Lead long 1225 24.11.2008 1475 1175 -4.08% closed stop loss
Brent long 47.64 24.11.2008 65 44.8 -6.02% closed stop loss
Copper long 175 10.11.2008 300 145 -17.14% closed stop loss
EURRON short 3.80 24.11.2008 3.60 3.88 -2.06% closed stop loss
EURROL short 4.3145 12.1.2009 4.070 4.420 +1.28% closed lock in
EURUSD short 1.3355 12.1.2009 1.275 1.365 +3.1% closed on time
EURCHF long 1.4883 12.1.2009 1.570 1.46 +1.01% closed on time
Platinum short 947.5 19.1.2009 880 975 -2.27% closed on time
Lead short 1159 26.1.2009 1055 1220 +3.95% closed on time
EURRON short 4.2465 26.1.2009 4.0700 4.32 -1.7% closed stop loss
EURCHF long 1.5032 26.1.2009 1.57 1.483 -1.34% closed stop loss
Copper long 149.6 19.1.2009 240.0 155.0 +3.61% %closed lock in
EURUSD long 1.2588 2.3.2009 1.2980 1.2450 -0.18% closed on time
Gold long 932.7 2.3.2009 985.0 920.0 -1.36% closed stop loss
EURJPY long 117.15 16.2.2009 128.0 121.0 +6.10% closed on time
Gold long 914.65 9.3.2009 985 920 +0.58% closed lock in
EURJPY short 128 16.3.2009 117 129.5 -1.16% closed stop loss
EURUSD long 1.3005 16.3.2009 1.43 1.35 +3.81% closed lock in
EURJPY long 131.58 23.3.2009 150 128 -2.40% closed stop loss
Lead long 1286 16.3.2009 1500 1180 +3.42% closed on time
Oil Brent long 51.45 23.3.2009 70 47 -8.65% closed stop loss
Page 11
EURPLN short 4.4351 6.4.2009 4.15 4.55 +2.29% closed on time
EURCZK long 26.591 6.4.2009 27.90 26.30 -0.94% closed on time
Copper long 147.15 23.2.2009 240.0 200.0 +35.92% closed lock in
Gold long 929.4 18.5.2009 980 918 +5.44% closed profit target
EUR/PLN short 4.409 25.5.2009 4.16 4.46 -1.1% closed stop loss
Brent short 70.51 15.6.2009 49.5 70.0 +0.73% closed lock in
EURCZK short 26.03 22.6.2009 24.80 26.45 +0.5% closed on time
Platinum short 1183.5 29.6.2009 1120 1210 +3.54% closed on time
EURJPY short 132.67 22.6.2009 115.5 136.5 -2.81% closed stop loss
Gold short 953.25 10.8.2009 910 973 +1.61% closed on time
Platinum short 1242 10.8.2009 1110 1330 -1.00% closed on time
EURJPY short 132.87 17.8.2009 128 135.3 -1.80% stop loss
Copper short 288.12 17.8.2009 255 295 -2.33% closed stop loss
EURJPY short 133.04 31.8.2009 126.5 134.5 +0.54% closed on time
Gold short 999.0 14.9.2009 955.0 1010.000 -1.08% closed stop loss
Platinum long 1349.5 19.10.2009 1440 1335 -1.07% closed stop loss
Brent short 78.59 26.10.2009 72.1 80.6 +4.09% closed lock in
Lead short 2304.852.11.2009 2250 2350 +0.34% closed on time
EURHUF short 273.05 30.11.2009 264 276.5 +1.31% closed on time
EURJPY long 130.4 30.11.2009 135 128.5 -0.61% closed on time
EURHUF short 273.69 14.12.2009 266 276.5 -0.66% closed stop loss
Copper short 316 14.12.2009 285 330 -2.80% closed on time
Brent long 73.21 21.12.2009 78 71 +6.54% closed profit target
EURJPY long 129.94 21.12.2009 138 127.5 +3.36% closed on time
EURUSD long 1.436 21.12.2009 1.53 1.415 +0.08% closed on time
Copper long 339.5 18.1.2010 400 325 -4.27% stop loss
Lead short 2250.3 25.1.2010 2080 2285 +8.19% closed profit target
EURJPY long 127.66 25.1.2010 138 125 -2.08% stop loss
EURCHF long 1.4722 1.2.2010 1.4950 1.4620 -0.69% stop loss
Platinum long 1530 1.2.2010 1640 1475 +1.31% lock in
Brent long 72.17 1.2.2010 82 70.5 +3.23% lock in
Copper short 308.6 1.2.2010 280 316 +6.53% closed on time
Gold short 1122.7522.2.2010 1060 1145 +0.53% closed on time
EURUSD long 1.362 22.2.2010 1.408 1.342 -0.85% closed on time
EURJPY short 120.59 1.3.2010 117 122.3 -1.40% stop loss
Brent long 72.17 15.2.2010 82.0 79.5 +10.16%lock in
Lead long 2181 1.3.2010 2350 2240 +2.71% lock in
Platinum long 1550 1.3.2010 1640 1520 +4.13% closed on time
Gold short 1125.9 8.3.2010 1064 1145 +2.10% closed on time
Copper short 338.6 22.3.2010 290 345 -1.86% stop loss
EURPLN long 3.893 22.3.2010 4.05 3.87 -0.59% stop loss
Lead long 2186 29.3.2010 2600 2080 +0.87% closed on time
EURRON long 4.1225 12.4.2010 4.23 4.10 +0.76% closed on time
Platinum long 1725.5 12.4.2010 2000 1670 -3.22% stop loss
Copper short 353.3 26.4.2010 342 357 +3.3% closed profit target
EURRON short 4.1161 26.4.2010 3.95 4.145 -0.7% stop loss
EURON short 4.126 3.5.2010 3.95 4.165 -0.94% stop loss
Gold long 1183 3.5.2010 1215 1165 -1.52% stop loss
Lead short 2230 3.5.2010 2020 2275 +10.4% closed profit target
EURHUF long 273.7 10.5.2010 269 275.5 -0.65% stop loss
Page 12
Lead long 2110 10.5.2010 2200 2070 -1.90% stop loss
Gold short 1193.4 10.5.2010 1080 1215 -1.78% stop loss
Brent long 74.17 17.5.2010 79 73 -1.58% stop loss
Lead short 1903 17.5.2010 1600 1950 +7.51% lock in
Brent long 69.63 25.5.2010 79 67 -3.78% stop loss
Platinum long 1526 25.5.2010 1640 1450 +2.39% closed on time
Lead short 1830 25.5.2010 1520 1860 +7.65% lock in
EURJPY long 111.95 25.5.2010 119 108 -2.82% closed on time
Copper short 307.15 31.5.2010 295 314 +4.12% closed profit target
Gold short 1216.2 31.5.2010 1140 1230 -1.12% stop loss
EURPLN short 4.0322 21.6.2010 3.87 4.08 -1.17% stop loss
EURCHF long 1.3729 21.6.2010 1.395 1.367 -0.43% stop loss
Brent short 77.24 28.6.2010 74.00 78.00 +4.38% closed profit target
Lead long 1840 28.6.2010 2000 1815 -1.36% stop loss
Gold long 1202.6 12.7.2010 1240 1195 -0.63% stop loss
EURCHF long 1.3371 12.7.2010 1.3758 1.3255 +1.5% closed on time
Page 13
Contacts
Group Research
Head of Group Research
Friedrich Mostböck, CEFA +43 (0)5 0100 - 11902 Research Turkey
CEE Equity Research Head: Erkin Sahinoz (Fixed Income) +90 212 371 2540
Co-Head: Günther Artner, CFA +43 (0)5 0100 - 11523 Ali Cakiroglu (Fixed Income) +90 212 371 2536
Co-Head: Henning Eßkuchen +43 (0)5 0100 - 19634 Sadrettin Bagci (Equity) +90 212 371 2537
Günter Hohberger (Banks) +43 (0)5 0100 - 17354 Can Oztoprak (Equity) +90 212 371 2539
Franz Hörl, CFA (Steel, Construction) +43 (0)5 0100 - 18506 Research, Slovakia
Gernot Jany, CFA (Banks, Real Estate) +43 (0)5 0100 - 11903 Head: Juraj Barta, CFA (Fixed income) +421 2 4862 4166
Daniel Lion, CIIA (IT) +43 (0)5 0100 - 17420 Michal Musak (Fixed income) +421 2 4862 4512
Christoph Schultes, CIIA (Insurance, Utility) +43 (0)5 0100 - 16314 Maria Valachyova (Fixed income) +421 2 4862 4185
Thomas Unger; CFA (Oil&Gas) +43 (0)5 0100 - 17344 Research, Ukraine
Vera Sutedja, CFA (Telecom) +43 (0)5 0100 - 11905 Head: Victor Stefanyshyn (Fixed Income) +38 044 593 - 1784
Vladimira Urbankova, MBA (Pharma) +43 (0)5 0100 - 17343 Svitlana Bazilevich (Equity) +38 044 593 - 9286
Gerald Walek, CFA (Machinery) +43 (0)5 0100 - 16360 Maryan Zablotskyy (Fixed income) +38 044 593 - 9188
International Equities Fixed Income & Credit Institutional Sales
Hans Engel (Market strategist) +43 (0)5 0100 - 19835 Group Institutional Sales
Stephan Lingnau (Europe) +43 (0)5 0100 - 16574 Head: Jaromir Malak +43 (0)50100 - 84254
Ronald Stöferle (Asia) +43 (0)5 0100 - 11723 Fixed Income & Credit Institutional Sales G7
Macro/Fixed Income Research Head: Thomas Almen +43 (0)50100 - 84323
Head: Gudrun Egger, CEFA (Euroland) +43 (0)5 0100 - 11909 Institutional Sales Austria
Mildred Hager (SW, Japan) +43 (0)5 0100 - 17331 Head: Thomas Almen +43 (0)50100 – 84323
Alihan Karadagoglu (Corporates) +43 (0)5 0100 - 19633 Martina Fux +43 (0)50100 - 84113
Peter Kaufmann (Corporates) +43 (0)5 0100 - 11183 Michael Konczer +43 (0)50100 - 84121
Carmen Riefler-Kowarsch (Corporates) +43 (0)5 0100 - 19632 Margit Hraschek +43 (0)50100 - 84117
Rainer Singer (US) +43 (0)5 0100 - 11185 Institutional Sales Germany
Elena Statelov, CIIA (Corporates) +43 (0)5 0100 - 19641 Head: Ingo Lusch +43 (0)50100 - 84111
Macro/Fixed Income Research CEE Michael Schmotz +43 (0)50100 - 84114
Co-Head CEE: Juraj Kotian (Macro/FI) +43 (0)5 0100 - 17357 Institutional Sales London
Co-Head CEE: Rainer Singer (Macro/FI) +43 (0)5 0100 – 11185 Antony Brown +44 20 7623 - 4159
Editor Research CEE Lukas Linsbichler +44 20 7623 - 4159
Brett Aarons +420 233 005 904 Simone Pilz +44 20 7263 - 4159
Research, Croatia/Serbia Institutional Sales Slovakia
Head: Mladen Dodig +381 11 22 00 866 Head: Peter Kniz +421 2 4862-5624
Damir Cukman (Equity) +385 62 37 2812 Sarlota Sipulova +421 2 4862-5629
Alen Kovac (Fixed income) +385 62 37 1383 Institutional Sales Czech Republic
Davor Spoljar (Equity) +385 62 37 2825 Head: Ondrej Cech +420 2 2499 - 5577
Pavel Zdichynec +420 2 2499 - 5590
Research, Czech Republic Milan Bartos +420 2 2499 - 5562
Head: David Navratil (Fixed income) +420 224 995 439 Radek Chupik +420 2 2499 - 5565
Petr Bartek (Equity) +420 224 995 227 Institutional Sales Croatia, Hungary, Romania
Vaclav Kminek (Media) +420 224 995 289 Head: Jaromir Malak +43 (0)501 00 - 84254
Jana Krajcova (Fixed income) +420 224 995 232 Institutional Sales Croatia
Radim Kramule (Oil&Gas) +420 224 995 213 Natalija Petljak +385 (0)6237 - 1638
Martin Lobotka (Fixed income) +420 224 995 192 Institutional Sales Hungary
Lubos Mokras (Fixed income) +420 224 995 456 Istvan Kovacs +36 1 235 – 5846
Research, Hungary Norbert Siklosi +36 1 235 - 5842
Head: József Miró (Equity) +361 235-5131 Institutional Sales Romania
Bernadett Papp (Equity) +361 235-5135 Ruxandra Carlan +40 21 310-4449-612
Gergely Gabler (Equity) +361 253-5133 Ciprian Mitu +43 (0)50100 - 84253
Zoltan Arokszallasi (Fixed income) +361 373-2830 International & High End Sales
Research, Poland Head: Zachary Carvell +43 (0)50100 - 83308
Head: Artur Iwanski (Equity) +48 22 330 6253 Piotr Zagan +43 (0)50100 - 84256
Magda Zabieglik (Equity) +48 22 330 6250 Ulrich Inhofner +43 (0)50100 - 84324
Tomasz Kasowicz (Equity) +48 22 330 6251 Darko Horvatin +43 (0)50100 - 84259
Piotr Lopaciuk (Equity) +48 22 330 6252 Ciprian Mitu +43 (0)50100 - 84253
Marek Czachor (Equity) +48 22 330 6254
Tomasz Kasowicz (Equity) +48 22 330 6251
Bianka Madej (Equity) +48 22 330 6260
Research, Romania
Head: Lucian Claudiu Anghel +40 21 312 6773
Mihai Caruntu (Equity) +40 21 311 27 54
Dumitru Dulgheru (Fixed income) +40 21 312 6773 1028
Cristian Mladin (Fixed income) +40 21312 6773 1028
Eugen Sinca (Fixed income) +40 21312 6773 1028
Raluca Ungureanu (Equity) +40 21311 2754
Treasury - Erste Bank Vienna

Saving Banks & Sales Retail
Head: Thomas Schaufler +43 (0)5 0100 - 84225
Equity Retail Sales
Head: Kurt Gerhold +43 (0)5 0100 - 84232
Fixed Income & Certificate Sales
Head: Markus Kaller +43 (0)5 0100 - 84239
Treasury Domestic Sales
Head: Gottfried Huscava +43 (0)5 0100 - 84142
Corporate Sales
Head: Christian Skopek +43 (0)5 0100 - 84146
Page 14
Published by Erste Group Bank AG, Neutorgasse 17, 1010 Vienna, Austria.
Phone +43 (0)5 0100 – 17357 or 11185.
Erste Bank Homepage: www.erstegroup.com On Bloomberg please type: ERBK <GO>.
This research report was prepared by Erste Group Bank AG (”Erste Group”) or its affiliate named herein. The information herein has been obtained from, and any
opinions herein are based upon, sources believed reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. All opinions,
forecasts and estimates herein reflect our judgement on the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. The report is not intended to be an offer, or the
solicitation of any offer, to buy or sell the securities referred to herein. From time to time, Erste Group or its affiliates or the principals or employees of Erste Group or its
affiliates may have a position in the securities referred to herein or hold options, warrants or rights with respect thereto or other securities of such issuers and may make
a market or otherwise act as principal in transactions in any of these securities. Erste Group or its affiliates or the principals or employees of Erste Group or its affiliates
may from time to time provide investment banking or consulting services to or serve as a director of a company being reported on herein. Further information on the
securities referred to herein may be obtained from Erste Group upon request. Past performance is not necessarily indicative for future results and transactions in
securities, options or futures can be considered risky. Not all transactions are suitable for every investor. Investors should consult their advisor, to make sure that the
planned investment fits into their needs and preferences and that the involved risks are fully understood. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published
without the prior consent of Erste Group. Erste Group Bank AG confirms that it has approved any investment advertisements contained in this material. Erste Group
Bank AG is regulated by the Financial Services Authority for the conduct of investment business in the UK.
Please refer to www.erstegroup.com for the current list of specific disclosures and the breakdown of Erste Group’s investment recommendations.
Page 15

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Technician – Macro/Fixed Income Research

Technician – Macro/Fixed Income Research – August 2, 2010

Overview of technical recommendations

Instrument Direction Open Opened Target Stop-loss P/L (%) Comment

Analyst: Luboš Mokráš

Erste Group – Technician

SMA;; 25,1841 Price

Daily QEURCZK= 31.12.2009 - 9.8.2010 (GMT)

Erste Group – Technician

Cndl;; 3,9810 Price

Daily QEURPLN= 31.12.2009 - 9.8.2010 (GMT)

Erste Group – Technician

Daily QEURHUF= 31.12.2009 - 9.8.2010 (GMT)

Erste Group – Technician

SMA;; 4,2485 Price

Daily QEURRON= 12.1.2010 - 9.8.2010 (GMT)

Erste Group – Technician

SMA;; 1,9636 Price

Daily QEURTRY= 31.12.2009 - 9.8.2010 (GMT)

Erste Group – Technician

61,8% 1,3488 1,35

Daily QEUR= 31.12.2009 - 9.8.2010 (GMT)

Erste Group – Technician

SMA;; 112,45 Price

Daily QEURJPY= 31.12.2009 - 9.8.2010 (GMT)

Erste Group – Technician

Daily QEURCHF= 31.12.2009 - 9.8.2010 (GMT)

Erste Group – Technician

SMA; QCU-NYC; Last Quote(Last); 20; Price

Daily QCU-NYC 7.1.2010 - 4.8.2010 (GMT)

Erste Group – Technician

Closed trading ideas

Erste Group – Technician

Erste Group – Technician

Erste Group – Technician

Treasury - Erste Bank Vienna

Erste Group – Technician

Erste Group – Technician

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