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March 5, 2010 Asia Pacific: Portfolio Strategy: Asia-Pacific Weekly Kickstart

Asia Pacific: Portfolio Strategy

Asia-Pacific Weekly Kickstart


Global markets in Green; Asia up 3%
• MXAPJ +3%, led by India (+4%); Taiwan, Australia and Korea
(+3%) followed
• Asia ex Japan is tracking 105% of full year estimates
• US$1.3bn inflow in EM Asia, mainly from India US$0.6 bn
Price performance Earnings and valuations
Timothy Moe, CFA
• Asia gained +3%, led by India (+4%); Taiwan, • MXAPJ P/E at 13.2X, P/B at 2.0X
+852-2978-1328 | timothy.moe@gs.com
Australia and Korea (+3%) followed Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
• Australia and Singapore were revised up;
• Materials (+5%) and tech (+4%) led the markets others have less EPS changes
Christopher Eoyang
• Indian sectors were the top performers; China • Materials and financials were upgraded, health +81(3)6437-9888 | christopher.eoyang@gs.com
Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd.
telcos underperformed care was revised down

• Commodities were up in general but coal -4%; Richard Tang


BDIY rallied 14%
Rates and currency +852-2978-0722 | richard.tang@gs.com
• Asian FX appreciated against USD: KRW Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
+1.7%, IDR +1.2%
Flows, positioning and risk appetite Ramasubramanian Dharmaraj
• US$1.3bn inflow in EM Asia during the week, (212) 934-9678 | ramasubramanian.d@gs.com
mainly India US$0.6 bn
Upcoming events Goldman Sachs India SPL
• US trade balance (Mar 11), adv retail sales (Mar
• Cash turnover increased across the region 12) CN trade (Mar 10), CPI, PPI, IP, retail sales, FAI Praveen B
except in AU, KR and JP (212) 934-8370 | praveen.b@gs.com
(Mar 11) TW trade (Mar 8)
Goldman Sachs India SPL
• Futures turnover dropped, rose slightly in • Earnings: Want Want China (Mar 8), Sinotrans,
Australia Sichuan Expressway, Foxconn, (Mar 9), Hysan
• Risk appetite picked up from last week Dev, Cathay Pacific (Mar 10), PetroChina (Mar 11),
Soho China (Mar 12)
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that
could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification, see the end of the text. Other
important disclosures follow the Reg AC certification, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA
in the U.S. This report is intended for distribution to GS institutional clients only.

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research
Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research 1
March 5, 2010 Asia Pacific: Portfolio Strategy: Asia-Pacific Weekly Kickstart

Our views and trade ideas


Market allocations Trading views
Weightings Markets Index targets (12-month) Our current trade recommendations
Korea KOSPI 2,300 - 2,800 Since initiation
Trade Initiation Date 1W (% chg)
(% chg)
Overweight Taiwan TWSE 10,900 - 12,400
HTC Corp 26-Feb-10 (0.5) (0.5)
China HSCEI 18,600 - 21,100 NTT 26-Feb-10 0.8 0.8
India SENSEX 21,100 - 23,000 Tosoh (Short) 26-Feb-10 (0.9) (0.9)
Market weight Hong Kong MXHK 12,600 - 14,200 China Banks (GSCNBANK) 5-Mar-10 - -
JFE Holdings vs. Topix 5-Mar-10 - -
Indonesia JCI 3,000 - 3,500
Refer to Asia Trading Views for details.
Australia AS51 5,800 - 6,000
Underweight
Singapore FSSTI 3,400 - 3,600
ASEAN: Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand

Recent publications Conviction list


Asia ex-Japan Conviction Buy stocks, top 10 with most potential upside
Opening trades on China Banks and JFE Holdings, Mar 5
Price Up / downside
https://360.gs.com/gs/portal/?action=action.doc&d=8697727 Bloomberg Name Market GICS sector currency Target price Last price (%)
1171 HK Yanzhou Coal Mining (H) China Energy HKD 27.00 16.48 63.8
As of the close of March 5, we are opening a long position in our China banks 2618 TT Eva Airways Taiwan Industrials TWD 20.40 12.50 63.2
267 HK Citic Pacific China Industrials HKD 27.70 17.28 60.3
basket (GSCNBANK) and long JFE Holdings (5411 JP) vs. TOPIX. Prices have 006360 KP GS Engg & Constr Korea Industrials KRW 140,000.00 90,000.00 55.6
005830 KP Dongbu Insurance Korea Financials KRW 49,500.00 31,850.00 55.4
fallen 18%-20% from recent highs and valuations are looking very attractive. 1777 HK Fantasia Holdings Group Co. Ltd. China Financials HKD 2.63 1.70 54.5
5 HK HSBC Holdings PLC Hong Kong Financials HKD 122.00 81.05 50.5
Spot steel prices have been rising since the Lunar New Year ended; stronger 368 HK Sinotrans Shipping China Industrials HKD 5.70 3.90 46.2
036570 KP NCSoft Korea Info Tech KRW 205,000.00 141,500.00 44.9
underlying demand and higher cash costs are likely to drive further upside for IFAR SP Indofood Agri Resources Singapore Cons. Stap. SGD 2.90 2.02 43.6

JFE, in our view. Asia ex-Japan Conviction Sell stocks, bottom 10 with most potential
Note: The ability to trade this basket will depend upon market conditions, including liquidity and borrow constraints at the time of trade.
downside
Price Up / downside
Bloomberg Name Market GICS sector currency Target price Last price (%)
Opening trades on HTC, NTT and Tosoh, Feb 26 PWGR IS
670 HK
Power Grid Corp of India
China Eastern Airlines (H)
India
China
Utilities
Industrials
INR
HKD
73.00
2.10
108.80
2.99
-32.9
-29.8
https://360.gs.com/gs/portal/?action=action.doc&d=8655369 BHEL IS
NACL IS
Bharat Heavy Electricals
National Aluminium
India
India
Industrials
Materials
INR
INR
1,761.00
305.00
2,447.05
400.85
-28.0
-23.9
As of the close of February 26, we are closing our long position in our HPCL IS
2600 HK
Hindustan Petroleum
Aluminum Corp of China (H)
India
China
Energy
Materials
INR
HKD
270.00
6.50
339.70
7.71
-20.5
-15.7
Goldman Sachs Asia Liquid Top Ideas (GSSZALTI). Since we initiated on the 2105 TT
GENS SP
Cheng Shin Rubber Ind
Genting Intl
Taiwan
Singapore
Cons. Disc.
Cons. Disc.
TWD
SGD
55.00
0.73
64.90
0.85
-15.3
-13.6
trade, the basket returned –8.1%, vs. MXAPJ –3.4%. Although we still 2912 TT
338 HK
President Chain Store
Sinopec Shanghai Petrochem (H)
Taiwan
China
Cons. Stap.
Materials
TWD
HKD
66.00
2.40
76.20
2.76
-13.4
-13.0
recommend the portfolio, its wide diversity reduced our responsiveness Pricing as of March 4, 2010.
For methodology and risks associated with our 12-month target prices mentioned, please refer to analyst’s
and we are moving towards more specific implementations.
previously published research.
For important disclosures, please go to http://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html.
Navigating the correction II, Feb 8
https://360.gs.com/gs/portal/?action=action.doc&d=8556724
In addition to well-flagged China tightening concerns, the markets are poorly
digesting sovereign debt and US growth. Our earnings view is based on the
idea that China is trying to modulate, not extinguish, growth. Also, if US
growth slows dramatically, we feel tightening pressures would ease in China.

Source: Datastream, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research estimates.

Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research 2


March 5, 2010 Asia Pacific: Portfolio Strategy: Asia-Pacific Weekly Kickstart

Focus of the week: Summary of earnings results and company guidance


Standard Chartered PLC (2888.HK, Buy, on Conviction list, HK$199.70), Mindray Medical (MR, Buy, US$38.0), Mar 3
Mar 4 https://360.gs.com/gs/portal/?action=action.doc&d=8681796
https://360.gs.com/gs/portal/?action=action.doc&d=8690507
Results: Net profit 27% qoq, 10% above GS est., mainly due to the margin
Results: Posted solid FY09 NPAT up 5% yoy, despite c. 15bp NIM expansion. Net profit margin was 22% for 4Q09, up from 19% in 3Q.
compression from low rates.
Outlook: We expect 28% domestic sales growth and 8% international growth
HongKong Land (HKLD.SI, Neutral, US$4.80), Mar 4 in 2010, driven by strong domestic demand and gradual market share gain in
https://360.gs.com/gs/portal/?action=action.doc&d=8695698 the international market.

Results: Reported an 111% rise in underlying EPS, 8% above GS est., driven Shanda Games (GAME, Neutral, US$6.75), Mar 1
by higher than projected residential sales. https://360.gs.com/gs/portal/?action=action.doc&d=8674601

Outlook: With Central grade-A office vacancy rate staying at a low level and Results: 4Q non-GAAP EPADS -8% qoq, 7% higher than GS est.
take-up returning to positive territory in 2H2009, we expect a spot rental
Guidance: Management guided 1Q2010 revenue of 10%-15% qoq decline,
growth of 20% in 2010E.
significantly below GS estimates of 3% qoq growth.
HSBC Holdings (0005.HK, Buy, on Conviction List, HK$81.80), Mar 2
Summary of earnings results (CY09)
https://360.gs.com/gs/portal/?action=action.doc&d=8673201
Actual vs.
Results: 2H09 NPAT down 27% hoh, 53% below GS est., core ROE at 10.9%; Reported Cos. forecast
Weakness attributed to sequentially lower capital markets/ trading profits and # of Cos. % of MSCI cap CY09
also higher operating expense run rate. MSCI markets
Australia 61 75% 89%
Outlook: We expect the banks earnings to benefit from any interest rate hike India 58 99% 95%
for its high gearing to NIM recovery. Korea 89 96% 108%
Malaysia 41 97% 101%
Hang Seng Bank (0011.HK, Sell, HK$109.50), Mar 2 Singapore 28 96% 107%
https://360.gs.com/gs/portal/?action=action.doc&d=8673100 Thailand 23 100% 102%
Results: Operating profit down 2% hoh, 3% below GS est., with a lot of key MXAPJ 356 60% 99%
MXASJ 295 54% 105%
P&L items down hoh and yoy, including NII.
MSCI AC Asia Pac ex Japan sectors
Outlook: We do not expect a material improvement to HSB’s earnings Information technology 37 69% 106%
growth prospects until interest rates start to rise. Industrials 62 64% 99%
Energy 24 55% 100%
Compal Electronics (2324.TW, Buy, NT$45.70), Mar 1 Consumer staples 25 73% 97%
https://360.gs.com/gs/portal/?action=action.doc&d=8671011 Consumer discretionary 37 67% 101%
Utilities 18 61% 93%
Results: Earnings +56% qoq, 4% above GS forecasts mainly from better Health care 9 96% 106%
economies of scale and non-operating items.
Note: Australia aggregate excludes losses in the property sector. Prices as of close of March 5, 2010,
Outlook: We expect strong 4Q09 NB shipment momentum to carry over into MindRay and Shanda Games prices as of Mar 4, 2010.

1Q10 and lead its NB shipments to decline only by 4% qoq.

Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research.

Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research 3


March 5, 2010 Asia Pacific: Portfolio Strategy: Asia-Pacific Weekly Kickstart

Performance snapshot: regions, markets, FX and rates


Asia gained +3% led by India (+4%); Taiwan, Australia and Korea (+3%) followed; Asian FX appreciated against USD: KRW +1.7%, IDR +1.2%
Price performance of MSCI market and regional indices

Global markets Asia performance chart


Price return (%) Total (%) 450
Indices 1-week Ytd Ytd US$ RSI
400
EM 4.2 -2 -3 57
350
Europe 3.3 0 -5 60
APJ 3.1 -2 -2 55 300
AC World 3.0 -1 -1 59 250
Japan 1.9 0 5 47
USA 1.8 200
0 1 60
0 1 2 3 4 5 150

Mar-09

Apr-09

May-09

Jun-09

Jul-09

Aug-09

Sep-09

Oct-09

Nov-09

Jan-10

Feb-10

Mar-10
Dec-09
Asian markets
Price return (%) Total (%) Currency 3M yield 10Y yield
1wk chg Current 1wk chg Current 1wk chg
Indices 1-week Ytd Ytd US$ RSI Current
(%) (%) (bp) (%) (bp)
India 3.7 -1 0 63 45.69 0.9 4.2 5 7.9 4
Taiwan 3.0 -7 -7 45 31.92 0.5 0.5 0 1.5 1
Australia 2.8 -1 0 59 0.90 0.8 4.2 8 5.5 3
Korea 2.8 -4 -1 50 1140 1.7 2.2 -3 5.0 -10
China offshore 2.2 -4 -5 51
Malaysia 2.1 1 3 56 3.36 1.2 2.4 6 4.2 -4
Hong Kong 1.8 -1 -1 NA 7.76 0.0 0.1 0 2.7 -2
Thailand 1.3 -1 2 65 32.63 1.3 1.4 0 3.9 4
Indonesia 1.2 -1 0 47 9235 1.2 7.0 -4 9.6 -25
Singapore 0.6 -5 -4 48 1.40 0.4 0.4 -5 2.7 -1
China domestic* -0.7 -9 -- 46 6.83 0.0 1.9 0 3.4 -12
Philippines -2.2 -3 -2 50 46.05 0.2 4.0 -5 8.1 0
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5
* China domestic performance is based on CSI 300 index. China offshore performance is based on MSCI China index. Note: Currency convention for global markets: AC World – USD, USA – USD, Japan – JPY, MXAPJ –
USD, EM – USD, Europe – EUR; for Asian markets: all local currencies.
Source: Bloomberg, CSI, FactSet, MSCI, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research estimates.

Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research 4


March 5, 2010 Asia Pacific: Portfolio Strategy: Asia-Pacific Weekly Kickstart

Performance snapshot: Sectors and styles


Materials (+5%) and tech (+4%) led the markets Indian sectors were the top performers; China telcos underperformed
1-week and ytd performance (USD) of MXAPJ sectors Top/bottom 5 performing country sectors (index cap > US$2 bn)

Price return (%) Top 5 performing GICS country sectors


Indices 1-week Ytd Country Sector 1-wk perf. Ytd perf.
Materials 4.6 -2 India Materials 7.0% 1.4%
Info tech 4.0 -5 India Industrials 5.5% -0.6%
Industrials 3.9 India Cons. stap. 5.2% -1.6%
2
Cons stap 3.7
India Cons. disc. 4.7% 2.4%
0
India Utilities 4.4% -7.2%
Cons disc 3.2 -2
Financials 2.9
Bottom 5 performing GICS country sectors
-3
Health care 2.8
Country Sector 1-wk perf. Ytd perf.
3
China Telcos. -3.2% 0.3%
Utilities 2.6 0
Australia Telcos. -2.0% -15.2%
Energy 2.4 -4
Korea Telcos. -1.4% 3.1%
Telecoms -1.2 -2 Singapore Financials -0.6% -8.2%
-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 Korea Cons. disc. 0.0% -7.4%
Relative performance of MXAPJ cyclicals vs. defensives Relative performance of MXAPJ large caps vs. mid caps

(Dec-07 = 100) MXAPJ cyclicals vs. defensives MXAPJ index (right) (Dec-07 = 100) MXAPJ Large vs. mid MXAPJ index (right)
105 110 120 100

100 100

115 85
95 90

90 80
110 70
85 70

80 60
105 55
75 50

70 40
100 40

65 30

60 20 95 25
Dec-07

Feb-08

Apr-08

Jun-08

Aug-08

Oct-08

Dec-08

Feb-09

Apr-09

Jun-09

Aug-09

Oct-09

Dec-09

Feb-10

Dec-07

Feb-08

Apr-08

Jun-08

Aug-08

Oct-08

Dec-08

Feb-09

Apr-09

Jun-09

Aug-09

Oct-09

Dec-09

Feb-10
Source: Bloomberg, FactSet, I/B/E/S, MSCI, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research estimates.

Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research 5


March 5, 2010 Asia Pacific: Portfolio Strategy: Asia-Pacific Weekly Kickstart

Earnings revisions
Earnings upward revisions have been steady 2010E growth of Asia is at 26%, still led by Taiwan and Korea
Forward EPS level of MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex Japan (USD) index 2010E consensus earnings growth estimates (local currency), ranked

MSCI Asia Pacific ex Japan (USD) index EPS level 2009E EPS 2010E EPS (%)
80
35 50

33 45

40 38
31
35
29
30
27 26
25 23 23
25
20 18 17 16 16 16
23 14
15 12
21 10
19 5

17 0

Taiwan

Hong Kong
Korea

China

India

Malaysia

Thailand

Indonesia
Singapore

Australia

MXAPJ
Philippines
15
Jul-09
Oct-08

Nov-08

Dec-08

Jan-09

Feb-09

Mar-09

May-09
Apr-09

Jun-09

Aug-09

Sep-09

Oct-09

Nov-09

Dec-09

Jan-10

Feb-10
Australia and Singapore were revised up; others have less EPS changes Materials and financials were upgraded, healthcare was revised down
Combined ranking by 10E earnings revisions and momentum, past week Combined ranking by 10E earnings revisions and momentum, past week

12M EPS revisions (Bottom) 2010E EPS momentum 12M EPS revisions (Bottom) 2010E EPS momentum
-1% 0% 1% 2% 3% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3%

Australia Materials
Singapore Financials
Philippines
Cons staples
APxJ
IT
Taiwan
Korea Cons Discretionary

Indonesia Industrials
Hong Kong
Utilities
China
Telecom
Thailand
Energy
India
Malaysia Health care

-1.5% 0.0% 1.5% 3.0% 4.5% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6%

Source: FactSet, I/B/E/S, MSCI, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research estimates.

Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research 6


March 5, 2010 Asia Pacific: Portfolio Strategy: Asia-Pacific Weekly Kickstart

Regional valuations
MSCI market and sector index valuations (based on bottom-up consensus median and bottom-up Goldman Sachs Research estimates)

Consensus estimates GS bottom-up est.


Bloomberg P/E (X) EPS growth (%) P/B (X) D/Y (%) ROAE (%) EPS growth (%)
ticker 2010E 2011E 2010E 2011E 2010E 2010E 2010E 2010E 2011E
MSCI markets (local currency)
Australia MXAU 14.7 12.4 12.1 18.8 2.0 4.1 13.9 12.1 18.8
China MXCN 13.5 11.4 23.4 18.9 2.1 2.7 16.5 31.3 19.5
Hong Kong MXHK 15.6 14.3 17.0 9.1 1.4 3.3 9.1 13.3 15.2
India MXIN 17.9 14.7 22.9 21.3 2.8 1.1 16.4 21.5 21.2
Indonesia MXID 13.3 11.1 14.3 19.5 3.2 3.1 25.6 16.7 19.6
Japan MXJP 19.1 14.6 173.6 31.1 1.1 1.9 6.2 168.8 30.5
Korea MXKR 9.5 8.6 38.4 10.5 1.3 1.6 14.8 36.5 10.6
Malaysia MXMY 15.2 13.4 18.0 13.2 1.9 3.1 13.2 16.8 14.7
Philippines MXPH 13.9 12.5 16.3 11.6 2.2 3.4 16.1 12.9 11.4
Singapore Free SIMSCI 14.2 12.8 15.8 10.4 1.7 3.4 11.9 11.5 14.7
Taiwan MXTW 14.4 12.0 79.8 17.5 1.8 3.8 12.8 80.3 16.2
Thailand MXTH 11.2 9.6 15.7 16.6 1.6 3.8 15.5 17.1 25.1
AC Asia Pacific ex Japan MXAPJ 13.6 11.8 26.2 15.4 1.8 3.0 14.0 26.9 16.2
AC Asia ex Japan MXASJ 13.2 11.5 31.1 14.5 1.8 2.6 14.0 32.0 15.7

USA MXUS 14.2 11.9 26.5 19.7 2.0 2.0 14.5


Europe (USD) MSDUE15 12.2 10.2 25.2 19.6 1.5 3.8 12.8
EAFE (USD) MXEA 13.6 11.3 37.4 20.9 1.5 3.4 10.9
AC World (USD) MXWD 13.8 11.5 32.1 20.0 1.7 2.7 12.4

MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex Japan GICS sectors (local currency)


Energy MXAPJEN 13.4 11.3 16.0 18.9 1.9 2.7 14.9 21.9 21.1
Materials MXAPJMT 13.7 11.2 30.0 22.3 2.2 2.2 16.7 29.0 21.7
Industrials MXAPJIN 15.2 12.9 45.2 17.6 1.6 2.3 10.9 52.4 19.8
Consumer discretionary MXAPJCD 12.6 11.2 14.9 12.7 1.9 2.4 15.6 12.5 10.2
Consumer staples MXAPJCS 16.8 14.9 9.7 13.0 2.5 3.1 15.2 10.5 14.1
Health care MXAPJHC 19.4 16.8 16.8 15.6 3.7 2.0 19.9 19.4 17.7
Financials MXAPJFN 13.4 11.6 18.5 15.5 1.6 3.8 12.3 19.0 17.7
Information technology MXAPJIT 12.9 11.3 82.5 12.1 2.1 2.3 17.7 82.0 10.3
Telecommunication services MXAPJTC 11.8 11.0 3.8 6.5 1.9 4.9 16.5 2.7 5.8
Utilities MXAPJUT 15.6 13.9 21.4 12.0 1.5 3.1 9.8 18.9 15.9
Source: FactSet, I/B/E/S, MSCI, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research estimates.

Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research 7


March 5, 2010 Asia Pacific: Portfolio Strategy: Asia-Pacific Weekly Kickstart

Local index valuations (based on bottom-up consensus median and bottom-up Goldman Sachs Research estimates)

Consensus estimates GS bottom-up est.


Bloomberg Index P/E (X) EPS growth (%) P/B (X) D/Y (%) ROAE (%) EPS growth (%)
Market ticker close 2010E 2011E 2010E 2011E 2010E 2010E 2010E 2010E 2011E
Local market indexes (local currency)
Asia* SPA50 2,893 11.9 10.5 35.0 13.4 1.7 3.1 15.0 35.5 15.5
MXAPEXA 736 12.1 10.6 33.9 14.2 1.8 3.1 15.8 37.5 16.1
Australia AS51 4,767 14.7 12.4 12.9 18.9 1.9 4.2 13.3 12.9 18.9
Hong Kong/ HSI 20,788 13.4 11.4 20.4 18.0 1.7 3.4 13.5 26.9 22.7
China HSCEI 11,927 12.0 10.0 26.4 20.0 2.0 3.3 17.3 36.3 22.7
HSCCI 4,031 13.1 11.7 13.2 12.4 1.9 2.9 15.2 21.1 11.8
XIN0I 17,896 12.7 10.7 22.4 18.9 1.9 3.0 15.9 31.8 20.8
SHSZ300 3,260 18.1 14.6 31.1 21.3 2.7 1.5 16.6 36.6 21.7
XIN9I 10,660 16.0 13.4 26.9 19.6 2.6 1.7 17.2 33.6 21.1
India NIFTY 5,095 17.3 14.4 19.5 20.6 2.7 1.2 16.1 19.2 21.9
SENSEX 17,021 17.4 14.5 18.7 19.8 2.7 1.2 16.9 19.1 19.8
Indonesia JCI 2,576 13.4 11.3 20.9 20.9 2.7 2.8 21.7 22.6 21.1
LQ45 502 13.2 11.4 18.6 19.4 2.8 2.9 22.8 20.4 19.6
Japan NKY 10,369 21.0 16.1 162.6 30.7 1.3 1.6 6.4 163.3 30.6
TPX 911 19.2 14.6 194.2 31.5 1.1 1.9 5.9 189.2 31.2
Korea KOSPI2 214 9.8 8.8 43.7 11.2 1.3 1.6 14.1 43.6 11.4
KOSPI 1,635 9.8 8.7 46.6 12.8 1.3 1.7 13.5 48.6 12.2
KOSDAQ 511 10.9 8.3 61.8 31.2 1.7 0.8 17.2 59.9 31.3
Philippines PCOMP 3,034 12.9 11.5 14.6 11.5 1.9 3.4 15.2 11.0 11.3
Singapore FSSTI 2,785 14.2 12.9 15.0 9.7 1.6 3.2 11.3 5.8 13.2
Taiwan TWSE 7,666 14.5 12.2 74.5 18.0 1.8 3.7 12.7 74.0 17.2
Thailand SET50 510 11.0 9.4 11.0 16.3 1.6 4.1 14.8 13.1 26.4
SET 725 10.9 9.4 12.2 15.9 1.5 4.3 14.4 14.0 24.7
Note: *SPA50 and MXAPEXA indices are quoted in USD. All others are quoted in local currency.

Source: FactSet, I/B/E/S, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research estimates.

Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research 8


March 5, 2010 Asia Pacific: Portfolio Strategy: Asia-Pacific Weekly Kickstart

Liquid Sectors and CAT valuations


Consensus estimates Consensus estimates
Bloomberg P/E (X) EPS growth (%) P/B (X) D/Y (%) ROE (%) Bloomberg P/E (X) EPS growth (%) P/B (X) D/Y (%) ROE (%)
ticker 2010E 2011E 2010E 2011E 2010E 2010E 2010E ticker 2010E 2011E 2010E 2011E 2010E 2010E 2010E
Asia Pacific ex Japan Liquid Sectors (USD) India Liquid Sectors (INR)
Energy GSAPENER 13.5 11.5 22 18 1.9 2.7 14.8 Financials GSISFINA 20.6 16.3 19 26 2.5 1.2 9.8
Steel GSAPSTEE 12.2 10.1 38 21 1.8 2.1 15.1 —Banks GSISBANK 20.5 16.4 20 25 2.6 1.3 NM
Mining GSAPMINE 14.8 12.1 46 22 2.6 1.5 18.4 —Properties GSISPROP 20.9 13.9 10 51 1.3 0.4 9.9
Chemicals GSAPCHEM 12.9 11.5 18 12 1.8 3.0 15.0 Energy GSISENER 12.6 10.6 27 19 2.0 1.8 16.6
Capital Goods GSAPCAPG 13.0 11.3 32 15 2.1 1.7 16.9 IT Services GSISSOFT 20.1 17.1 13 17 5.4 1.1 29.0
Transport GSAPTRAN 24.0 14.1 NM 69 1.3 1.6 5.5 Industrials GSISINDU 24.0 19.3 26 25 4.3 0.8 16.9
—Marine GSAPMARI 63.1 17.8 NM 254 1.2 1.1 2.0 Materials GSISMATL 13.8 10.3 44 34 2.4 0.6 17.0
—Airlines GSAPAIRL 16.2 12.2 84 33 1.3 1.9 8.5 Utilities GSISUTIL 19.2 17.0 14 12 2.3 1.3 9.0
Tech HW & Semi GSAPTECH 10.8 9.8 58 11 1.9 3.0 18.6 Consumers GSISCNSM 18.6 14.8 78 30 2.8 1.1 12.7

SEHK-Listed China Liquid Sectors (HKD) Australia Liquid Sectors (AUD)


Financials GSCNFINA 12.8 10.5 24 22 2.2 2.9 18.1 All Financials GSOZFINA 13.1 11.5 11 14 1.7 5.4 13.5
—Banks GSCNBANK 9.9 8.1 23 22 1.9 4.4 20.3 —Banks GSOZBANK 13.0 11.3 16 16 2.0 5.5 15.5
—Properties GSCNPROP 14.2 11.5 31 23 2.0 1.7 15.1 —Insurance GSOZINSU 12.6 11.6 2 9 1.7 5.5 13.9
Telecoms GSCNTELE 13.7 12.6 (0) 9 1.5 3.1 11.4 —REITs GSOZREIT 14.0 13.5 (7) 4 1.1 5.6 7.4
Energy GSCNENER 10.9 9.6 23 13 1.8 3.3 17.7 All Resources GSOZRESC 17.8 13.5 10 32 2.5 1.9 14.5
—Oils GSCNOILS 10.0 8.9 23 13 1.7 3.6 17.5
—Coal GSCNCOAL 14.3 12.3 25 16 2.5 2.2 19.0 Customized Asian Themes (CATs) (Local Currencies)
Materials GSCNMATL 15.8 12.9 122 23 2.3 1.4 15.3 Palm Oil (USD) GSSZCPO 17.3 15.8 18 10 2.8 2.0 17.3
Marine GSCNMARI 27.5 20.5 109 34 1.7 1.4 6.4 High Vol (USD) GSSZHVOL 14.8 12.5 48 18 1.8 2.1 12.6
Asia Liquid Top Ideas 2010(USD) GSSZALTI 11.7 10.0 39 16 2.1 2.5 18.8
Hong Kong Liquid Sectors (HKD) CHN Water II (USD) GSSZCNW2 15.6 13.3 23 18 1.8 2.9 12.5
Financials GSHKFINA 16.0 14.5 15 10 1.3 3.1 8.5 CHN Mid-Cap Domestics GSSZCNM2 13.8 11.2 35 23 1.7 1.8 12.7
—Banks GSHKBANK 13.6 11.9 21 14 2.0 4.7 15.3 CHN Infra Spending GSSZCNIS 14.3 11.8 35 21 1.9 1.6 13.6
—Properties GSHKPROP 16.0 14.7 12 9 1.0 2.4 6.4 CHN A-Shr Infra Spending GSSZCISA 17.2 14.0 37 22 2.9 1.2 18.2
CHN Rural Reform GSSZCNRR 14.8 12.6 49 18 2.5 1.1 17.9
Singapore Liquid Sectors (SGD) CHN A-Shr Rural Reforms GSSZCRRA 26.8 20.8 89 18 3.9 1.0 18.5
Financials GSSNFINA 13.9 12.5 18 12 1.5 3.4 10.8 CHN Go West 2 GSSZCNG2 22.6 18.6 23 22 4.2 1.5 19.7
—Banks GSSNBANK 12.5 11.2 22 12 1.4 3.8 11.5 CHN HK-Listed Autos GSSZCNAU 13.9 11.9 62 18 2.2 1.4 17.0
Industrials GSSNINDU 14.5 12.5 3 16 1.8 2.9 13.8 CHN Potential A-Shr Listing GSSZCNAL 14.2 12.2 21 16 1.9 2.4 14.1
CHN Shanghai Expo GSSZCNWE 11.6 11.6 6 (0) 1.2 1.7 10.6
Korea Liquid Sectors (KRW) CHN A-Shr Shanghai Expo GSSZCWEA 24.6 21.8 45 12 2.8 0.9 14.7
Tech HW & Semi GSKOTECH 9.0 8.6 85 4 1.6 0.8 19.3 CHN HK-Listed Consume (HKD) GSCNCNSM 17.2 14.3 33 21 2.6 1.7 15.8
Shipyards GSKOYARD 6.8 6.8 14 (0) 1.4 2.4 23.5 CHN US-Listed Consume (USD) GSCNCNSU 16.5 14.2 25 22 3.1 0.2 18.5
Financials GSKOFINA 9.7 8.2 89 19 1.1 2.0 11.5 CHN A-Shr Consume (CNY) GSGHCNSM 26.1 21.5 34 17 4.1 1.7 17.8
Autos GSKOAUTO 9.3 8.4 9 11 1.4 1.0 16.5 MAC HK-Listed GSSZMOHK 18.4 15.3 76 20 1.0 2.2 5.6
MAC US-Listed GSSZMOUS NM 209.8 NM NM 1.8 - (1.9)
Taiwan Liquid Sectors (TWD) IND Mid-Cap Domestics GSSZINM2 14.9 12.4 23 18 1.9 1.2 11.7
Tech HW & Semi GSTATECH 13.0 11.2 87 16 2.2 3.5 17.6 IND Infra Spending GSSZINIS 19.7 16.9 12 18 3.2 0.8 18.1
Financials GSTAFINA 17.9 14.9 73 21 1.6 2.9 9.0 IND Consumers GSISCNSM 18.6 14.8 78 30 2.8 1.1 12.7
Materials GSTAMATL 15.5 13.2 31 18 1.8 4.4 11.9 JPN China-Exposed GSSZJPCN 15.9 11.5 50 39 1.3 1.5 8.5
JPN Chindonesia GSSZCIND 22.4 15.1 146 48 1.3 1.3 6.0
JPN Consumption Stimulus GSSZJPCS 21.1 15.4 192 37 1.1 1.4 5.2
JPN Nifty Cyclicals GSSZJP10 25.0 17.8 85 40 1.7 1.2 7.0
TWN Liquid Domestics GSSZTWLD 15.6 13.5 NM 16 1.4 3.8 9.4

Data as of March 4, 2010. NM—valuations are not calculated because of negative FY0 EPS
Real-time pricings are available on Bloomberg GSSA 9 <GO> for Liquid Sectors and GSSA 5 <GO> for CATs.

Please refer to Pan-Asia Alpha CATscan publications and http://360.gs.com/gs/portal/?action=action.doc&d=7259720, June 1, 2009 for details

Source: FactSet, I/B/E/S, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research estimates.

Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research 9


March 5, 2010 Asia Pacific: Portfolio Strategy: Asia-Pacific Weekly Kickstart

Valuations in context
China and Korea are trading below both 5-year average P/E... ... and also P/B
12M forward P/E relative to 5-year range 12M trailing P/B relative to 5-year range

12M forward P/E (X) High/low 12M trailing P/B (X) High/low
30 +/- 1 Stdev. 7 +/- 1 Stdev.
One Week Ago One Week Ago
25 6
Current Current
5
20
16.9
15.7 4
14.8
14.0 13.8 13.5 13.5 13.2
15 13.0 12.7 3.8
10.7 3
9.5 3.2
10
2 2.5 2.5
2.1 2.0 1.9 2.0
5 1.9 1.8
1 1.5 1.4

0 0
Hong Kong

Taiwan
India

Australia

China

Thailand
Indonesia

Korea

MXAPJ
Malaysia

Singapore

Philippines

Philippines

Taiwan

Thailand

Hong Kong
Indonesia

India

China

Australia

Singapore

Korea

MXAPJ
Malaysia
Asia is trading at 13.2X P/E and 2.0X P/B Relative P/E of MXAPJ vs. SPX and DJ Stoxx 600
12M forward P/E and trailing P/B series of MXAPJ index

(X) (X) Relative Forward P/E (X) vs. DJ Stoxx 600 vs. SPX
18 3.5 1.6

16 1.4
3.0

1.2
14
2.5
1.0
12
0.8
2.0
10
0.6
1.5
8
0.4

MXAPJ P/E MXAPJ P/B (right)


6 1.0 0.2
Dec-05

Mar-06

Jun-06

Sep-06

Dec-06

Mar-07

Jun-07

Sep-07

Dec-07

Mar-08

Jun-08

Sep-08

Dec-08

Mar-09

Jun-09

Sep-09

Dec-09

Dec-00

Jun-01

Dec-01

Jun-02

Dec-02

Jun-03

Dec-03

Jun-04

Dec-04

Jun-05

Dec-05

Jun-06

Dec-06

Jun-07

Dec-07

Jun-08

Dec-08

Jun-09

Dec-09
Source: FactSet, I/B/E/S, MSCI, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research estimates.

Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research 10


March 5, 2010 Asia Pacific: Portfolio Strategy: Asia-Pacific Weekly Kickstart

Fund flows and liquidity


US$1.3 bn inflow during the week, mainly from India US$0.6 bn Turnover velocity back at 100% levels
Cumulative net foreign inflow since 2009 Annualized turnover velocity (turnover / market cap) in Asia ex Japan

US$ bn Turnover velocity (5D moving average)


60 180%

40 160%

140%
20

120%
0
100%
-20
80%
March low to
-40 now: US$66 bn
60%

-60 40%

-80 20%
Jan-07

Mar-07

May-07

Jul-07

Sep-07

Nov-07

Jan-08

Mar-08

May-08

Jul-08

Sep-08

Nov-08

Jan-09

Mar-09

May-09

Jul-09

Sep-09

Nov-09

Jan-10

Mar-10

Jul-07

Jul-08

Jul-09
Jan-07

Mar-07

May-07

Sep-07

Nov-07

Jan-08

Mar-08

May-08

Sep-08

Nov-08

Jan-09

Mar-09

May-09

Sep-09

Nov-09

Jan-10

Mar-10
Cash turnover increased across the region except in AU, KR and JP Futures turnover dropped, rose slightly in Australia
Cash turnover on Asian exchanges Futures turnover on Asian exchanges

(US$ mn) 260D avg value traded (US$ mn) Last week 5D avg value traded (US$ mn) (US$ mn) 260D avg value traded (US$ mn) Last week 5D avg value traded (US$ mn)
Current 5D avg value traded (US$ mn) Current 5D avg value traded (US$ mn)
35,000 35,000

29,031 29,222
30,000 27,856 30,000

25,000 25,000

20,000 20,000 17,995

15,000 12,768 15,000


12,347

10,000 8,247
10,000
7,171
4,982 4,436 4,332
5,000 3,460
2,398 5,000 3,557 3,159

0 366 131 120


0
Japan

Hong Kong

Taiwan
APJ ex China

China

Australia

Korea

India

ASEAN

Japan

Hong Kong

Taiwan

Thailand
Korea

India

Australia

Malaysia
Singapore
Source: AMG, Bloomberg, Reuters, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research estimates.

Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research 11


March 5, 2010 Asia Pacific: Portfolio Strategy: Asia-Pacific Weekly Kickstart

Risks, credit, and volatility


Risk appetite picked up from last week Equities vs. credit performance
Goldman Sachs Asia Pacific ex-Japan Equity Risk Barometer (GS-ERB)

Index level Index level


2.0 700 450 0
APxJ ERB MXAPJ MSCI AC Asia ex Japan iTraxx Asia ex Japan (right, inverted)
1.0 50
600 400
0.0 100
-1.0 500 350 150

-2.0 200
400 300
-3.0 250
300 250
-4.0 300

-5.0 200 200 350

-6.0 400
100 150
-7.0 450

-8.0 0 100 500


Dec-04

Apr-05

Aug-05

Dec-05

Apr-06

Aug-06

Dec-06

Apr-07

Aug-07

Dec-07

Apr-08

Aug-08

Dec-08

Apr-09

Aug-09

Dec-09

Mar-09

Apr-09

May-09

Jun-09

Jul-09

Aug-09

Sep-09

Oct-09

Nov-09

Dec-09

Jan-10

Feb-10

Mar-10
Realised volatility has reduced slightly during last week Put costs dropped across the region
HSI, KOSPI 200 and Nikkei realized volatility Cost of 3-month 90% puts

1M realized volatility (vol pts) Cost of 3-mo 90% puts (mid-market)


60 8
HSI KS200 N225
7
50
6

40 5

4 1y median
30
3
20 2.4 2.3
2 1.8 1.8
1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3
1 1.2 1.1 1.1
10 0.9

TWSE

MSCI Sing
HSCEI

HSI

TOPIX

SPX
SPA50

EuroStoxx50

Nikkei 225

FTSE-100

KOSPI 200

ASX 200
0

MSCI World
Dec-08

Jan-09

Feb-09

Mar-09

Apr-09

May-09

Jun-09

Jul-09

Aug-09

Sep-09

Oct-09

Nov-09

Dec-09

Jan-10

Feb-10

Source: Bloomberg, local stock exchanges, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.

Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research 12


March 5, 2010 Asia Pacific: Portfolio Strategy: Asia-Pacific Weekly Kickstart

Economics: Growth, commodities


Goldman Sachs Asian market GDP growth forecasts Commodities were up in general but coal -4%; BDIY rallied 14%

Real GDP growth Current Price performance


2009 2010 2011 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3
forecast (%) Commodity Bloomberg Currency Unit level 1-week ytd
Greater China & North Asia S&P GSCI
China 8.7 11.4 10.0 10.7 11.9 11.5 11.5 Spot SPGSCI USD - 520 0% -1%
Hong Kong -2.7 5.8 5.3 1.9 8.0 5.3 5.0 Agriculture SPGCAL USD - 274 -2% -5%
Taiwan -1.9 5.5 4.8 9.2 10.3 4.4 3.8 Energy SPGSEN USD - 265 1% 0%
Korea 0.2 4.8 4.6 6.0 7.6 5.6 3.3
Metal SPGSIN USD - 392 3% 0%
India & ASEAN markets
Precious metal SPGSPM USD - 1515 2% 3%
India 6.6 8.2 8.7 6.5 8.3 8.4 8.0
Commodity spot (* nearby futures)
Singapore -2.0 6.2 5.2 4.0 8.1 6.1 4.5
Baltic Dry BDIY USD - 3121 14% 4%
Indonesia 4.5 5.8 6.0 5.4 6.0 6.0 5.7
DRAM DRAMDXI - - 4050 0% 3%
Malaysia -1.7 5.0 5.2 4.5 7.3 5.0 4.0
Gold GOLDS USD per oz. 1135 2% 3%
Philippines 0.9 4.2 5.0 1.8 3.3 4.6 4.3
WTI * CL1 USD per barrel 81 1% 2%
Thailand -2.3 4.2 4.5 5.8 5.2 4.1 3.7
Coal * QZ1 USD per ton 52 -4% 6%
Asia ex Japan 5.9 9.1 8.5 8.4 9.9 9.2 8.8
Japan -5.0 1.9 1.6 -0.4 2.6 1.6 2.0 Steel (rebar)* RBT1 CNY per ton 3861 -1% 17%
Euroland -4.0 1.2 1.9 -2.1 0.8 1.3 1.2 Aluminum * LA1 USD per ton 2191 4% -1%
US -2.4 2.6 2.4 0.1 2.4 3.1 2.9 Copper * LP1 USD per ton 7372 3% 0%
Palm oil * KO1 MYR per ton 2675 3% 4%
China PMI Korea Exports

(% yoy) (% yoy)
65 60

50
60
40

55 30

20
50
10
45
0

40 -10

-20
35
-30

30
-40
Jan-05

Jul-05

Jan-06

Jul-06

Jan-07

Jul-07

Jan-08

Jul-08

Jan-09

Jul-09

Jan-10

Dec-00

Jun-01

Dec-01

Jun-02

Dec-02

Jun-03

Dec-03

Jun-04

Dec-04

Jun-05

Dec-05

Jun-06

Dec-06

Jun-07

Dec-07

Jun-08

Dec-08

Jun-09

Dec-09
Source: Bloomberg, CEIC, Datastream, Haver, MSCI, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research estimates.

Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research 13


March 5, 2010 Asia Pacific: Portfolio Strategy: Asia-Pacific Weekly Kickstart

Stocks
Top- and bottom-10 ranked stocks last week by standardized price Top- and bottom-10 ranked stocks last week by earnings momentum (daily
performance (52-wk std. dev.) (daily liq. > US$10mn, cap > US$3bn) liq. > US$10mn, cap > US$3bn)
1W perf Ytd Ticker Stock name 1W chg Ticker Stock name 1W chg
Bloomberg Stock name Market GS sector (%) (# S.D.) chg (%)
Top 10 Bottom 10
Top 10 performance
753 HK Air China (H) 15% TOL AU Toll -8%
MAY MK Malayan Banking Malaysia Banks 6 5.4 62
6 HK Hongkong Electric Hong Kong Utilities 3 3
MAP AU MAp Group 14% TCL AU Transurban Group -8%
3.5
JSP IS Jindal Steel & Power India Steel 10 3.0 357 1326 TT Formosa Chem & Fibre 14% SGM AU Sims -6%
658 HK China High Speed Transmission EChina Offshore Industrials 12 2.8 79 ANZ AU Australia & New Zealand 8% BSL AU BlueScope Steel -6%
2777 HK Guangzhou R&F Prop China Offshore Property 13 2.8 52 SMM SP SembCorp Marine 6% RBXY IS Ranbaxy Lab -6%
TPWR IS Tata Power India Utilities 10 2.6 78 FMG AU Fortescue Metals 6% LLC AU Lend Lease -6%
TTMT IS Tata Motors India Industrials 12 2.4 400 AIO AU Asciano Group 5% QBE AU QBE Insurance -4%
ITC IS ITC (IN) India Staples 5 2.3 43 144 HK China Merchants 5% 813 HK Shimao Prop -4%
SIA SP Singapore Airlines Singapore Transportation 7 2.3 41 RIO AU Rio Tinto 5% 2601 HK China Pacific Insurance (G -4%
SESA IS Sesa GOA India Steel 12 2.2 421 086280 KP Glovis 5% SIME MK Sime Darby -3%
1W perf Ytd
Bloomberg Stock name Market GS sector (%) (# S.D.) chg (%)
Bottom 10 performance
1186 HK China Railway Constr (H) China Offshore Industrials -8 -2.2 -18
11 HK Hang Seng Bank Hong Kong Banks -4 -2.0 8
UOB SP United Overseas Bank Singapore Banks -4 -1.9 38
941 HK China Mobile China Offshore Telecoms -5 -1.6 -6
036460 KP Korea Gas Korea Utilities -5 -1.6 -17
823 HK Link REIT Hong Kong Property -2 -0.7 50
SGX SP Singapore Exchange Singapore Non-bank financials -1 -0.7 50
097950 KP CJ CheilJedang Korea Staples -3 -0.7 14
ONGC IS Oil & Natural Gas India Oil and gas -2 -0.7 64
CPF TB Charoen Pokphand Foods Thailand Staples -3 -0.7 274

Source: FactSet, I/B/E/S, Worldscope, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research.

Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research 14


March 5, 2010 Asia Pacific: Portfolio Strategy: Asia-Pacific Weekly Kickstart

Key events
Economic data release Earnings data release
Expected Expected
Country Data Consensus Bloomberg Proper name Market
release date report date
Taiwan Export Feb 32.9% 8-Mar 000728 CS Guoyuan Sec China Domestic 8-Mar
Taiwan Import Feb 39.1% 8-Mar 151 HK Want Want China China Offshore 8-Mar
China Export Feb 38.3% 10-Mar 8 HK PCCW Hong Kong 9-Mar
China Import Feb 39.2% 10-Mar 1212 HK Lifestyle Intl China Offshore 9-Mar
Philippines Central bank policy meeting 10-Mar 601107 CG Sichuan Expressway China Domestic 9-Mar
Japan Machinery orders Jan -0.7% 10-Mar 2038 HK Foxconn Intl China Offshore 9-Mar
Japan Corporate goods price index Feb -1.5% 10-Mar 66 HK MTR Hong Kong 9-Mar
China CPI Feb 2.5% 11-Mar 257 HK China Everbright Intl China Offshore 10-Mar
China PPI Feb 5.1% 11-Mar 14 HK Hysan Dev Hong Kong 10-Mar
China Industrial production Feb 19.6% 11-Mar 000001 CS Shenzhen Dev Bank China Domestic 11-Mar
China Retail sales Feb 18.1% 11-Mar 16 HK Sun Hung Kai Prop Hong Kong 11-Mar
China FAI Feb 27.0% 11-Mar 601857 CG PetroChina China Domestic 11-Mar
Korea Central bank policy meeting 11-Mar 410 HK Soho China China Offshore 12-Mar
Malaysia Industrial production Jan 12.2% 11-Mar
Thailand Central bank policy meeting 11-Mar
United States Trade balance Jan -$41.0Bn 11-Mar
Japan GDP annualized 4Q F 4.0% 11-Mar
United States Advance retail sales Feb -0.2% 12-Mar
Eurozone Industrial production Jan -1.6% 12-Mar
China M2 Feb 24.9% 10-15 Mar

Source: Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research estimates.

Report priced as of March 4, 2010. Index price return and valuation as of March 5, 2010 5 p.m. HKT.

Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research 15


March 5, 2010 Asia Pacific: Portfolio Strategy: Asia-Pacific Weekly Kickstart

Other disclosures
All MSCI data used in this report is the exclusive property of MSCI, Inc. (MSCI). Without prior written permission of MSCI, this
information and any other MSCI intellectual property may not be reproduced or re-disseminated in any form and may not be used
to create any financial instruments or products or any indices. This information is provided on an “as is” basis, and the user of this
information assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. Neither MSCI, any of its affiliates nor any third party
involved in, or related to, computing or compiling the data makes any express or implied warranties or representations with respect
to this information (or the results to be obtained by the use thereof), and MSCI, its affiliates and any such third party hereby
expressly disclaim all warranties of originality, accuracy, completeness, merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose with
respect to any of this information. Without limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall MSCI, any of its affiliates or any third
party involved in, or related to, computing or compiling the data have any liability for any direct, indirect, special, punitive,
consequential or any other damages (including lost profits) even if notified of the possibility of such damages. MSCI and the MSCI
indexes are service marks of MSCI and its affiliates. The Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) were developed by and is
the exclusive property of MSCI and Standard & Poor’s. GICS is a service mark of MSCI and S&P and has been licensed for use by
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.

Research written by Donald Lu on companies listed in Taiwan is written by him in his capacity as consultant to Goldman Sachs
(Asia) L.L.C. Any other research is written in his capacity as employee of Beijing Gao Hua Securities Company Limited.

Special disclosure
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. and/or one of its affiliates is acting as financial advisor in connection with a proposed privatization
of Hutchison Telecommunications International Limited by way of a scheme of arrangement under Section 86 of the Companies
Law. The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. and/or one of its affiliates will receive a fee for this advisory role.

Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research 16


March 5, 2010 Asia Pacific: Portfolio Strategy: Asia-Pacific Weekly Kickstart

Reg AC
We, Timothy Moe, CFA, Christopher Eoyang, Richard Tang, Ramasubramanian Dharmaraj and Praveen B, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect our personal
views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific
recommendations or views expressed in this report.

Investment Profile
The Goldman Sachs Investment Profile provides investment context for a security by comparing key attributes of that security to its peer group and market. The four key attributes depicted are:
growth, returns, multiple and volatility. Growth, returns and multiple are indexed based on composites of several methodologies to determine the stocks percentile ranking within the region's
coverage universe.
The precise calculation of each metric may vary depending on the fiscal year, industry and region but the standard approach is as follows:
Growth is a composite of next year's estimate over current year's estimate, e.g. EPS, EBITDA, Revenue. Return is a year one prospective aggregate of various return on capital measures, e.g. CROCI,
ROACE, and ROE. Multiple is a composite of one-year forward valuation ratios, e.g. P/E, dividend yield, EV/FCF, EV/EBITDA, EV/DACF, Price/Book. Volatility is measured as trailing twelve-month
volatility adjusted for dividends.

Quantum
Quantum is Goldman Sachs' proprietary database providing access to detailed financial statement histories, forecasts and ratios. It can be used for in-depth analysis of a single company, or to make
comparisons between companies in different sectors and markets.

Goldman Sachs Disclosures

Coverage group(s) of stocks by primary analyst(s)


Compendium report: please see disclosures at http://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Disclosures applicable to the companies included in this compendium can be found in the latest relevant
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Option Specific Disclosures


Price target methodology: Please refer to the analyst’s previously published research for methodology and risks associated with equity price targets.
Pricing Disclosure: Option prices and volatility levels in this note are indicative only, and are based on our estimates of recent mid-market levels. All prices and levels exclude transaction costs
unless otherwise stated.
Buying Options - Investors who buy call (put) options risk loss of the entire premium paid if the underlying security finishes below (above) the strike price at expiration. Investors who buy call or put
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Selling Options - Investors who sell calls on securities they do not own risk unlimited loss of the security price less the strike price. Investors who sell covered calls (sell calls while owning the
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For options settled by physical delivery, the above risks assume the options buyer or seller, buys or sells the resulting securities at the settlement price on expiry.

Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research 17


March 5, 2010 Asia Pacific: Portfolio Strategy: Asia-Pacific Weekly Kickstart

Company-specific regulatory disclosures


Compendium report: please see disclosures at http://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Disclosures applicable to the companies included in this compendium can be found in the latest relevant
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Distribution of ratings/investment banking relationships


Goldman Sachs Investment Research global coverage universe

Rating Distribution Investment Banking Relationships


Buy Hold Sell Buy Hold Sell
Global 31% 53% 16% 53% 47% 40%
As of January 1, 2010, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research had investment ratings on 2,763 equity securities. Goldman Sachs assigns stocks as Buys and Sells on various regional Investment
Lists; stocks not so assigned are deemed Neutral. Such assignments equate to Buy, Hold and Sell for the purposes of the above disclosure required by NASD/NYSE rules. See 'Ratings, Coverage
groups and views and related definitions' below.

Price target and rating history chart(s)


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See company-specific regulatory disclosures above for any of the following disclosures required as to companies referred to in this report: manager or co-manager in a pending transaction; 1% or
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The following are additional required disclosures: Ownership and material conflicts of interest: Goldman Sachs policy prohibits its analysts, professionals reporting to analysts and members of their
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Distribution of ratings: See the distribution of ratings disclosure above. Price chart: See the price chart, with changes of ratings and price targets in prior periods, above, or, if electronic format or if
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Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research 18


March 5, 2010 Asia Pacific: Portfolio Strategy: Asia-Pacific Weekly Kickstart

Japan: Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd. is a Financial Instrument Dealer under the Financial Instrument and Exchange Law, registered with the Kanto Financial Bureau (Registration No. 69), and is a
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Ratings, coverage groups and views and related definitions


Buy (B), Neutral (N), Sell (S) -Analysts recommend stocks as Buys or Sells for inclusion on various regional Investment Lists. Being assigned a Buy or Sell on an Investment List is determined by a
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Return potential represents the price differential between the current share price and the price target expected during the time horizon associated with the price target. Price targets are required for
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Not Rated (NR). The investment rating and target price have been removed pursuant to Goldman Sachs policy when Goldman Sachs is acting in an advisory capacity in a merger or strategic
transaction involving this company and in certain other circumstances. Rating Suspended (RS). Goldman Sachs Research has suspended the investment rating and price target for this stock, because
there is not a sufficient fundamental basis for determining an investment rating or target. The previous investment rating and price target, if any, are no longer in effect for this stock and should not be
relied upon. Coverage Suspended (CS). Goldman Sachs has suspended coverage of this company. Not Covered (NC). Goldman Sachs does not cover this company. Not Available or Not Applicable
(NA). The information is not available for display or is not applicable. Not Meaningful (NM). The information is not meaningful and is therefore excluded.

Global product; distributing entities


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This research is for our clients only. Other than disclosures relating to Goldman Sachs, this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is
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We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or
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research is suitable for their particular circumstances and, if appropriate, seek professional advice, including tax advice. The price and value of investments referred to in this research and the income

Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research 19


March 5, 2010 Asia Pacific: Portfolio Strategy: Asia-Pacific Weekly Kickstart

from them may fluctuate. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have
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Copyright 2010 The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.
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Gao Hua Securities Disclosures

Company-specific regulatory disclosures


The following disclosures relate to relationships between Goldman Sachs Gao Hua Securities Company Limited ("Goldman Sachs Gao Hua") and companies covered by the Investment Research
Division of Beijing Gao Hua Securities Company Limited ("Gao Hua Securities") and referred to in this research.
There are no company-specific disclosures.

General disclosures
This research is disseminated in China by Gao Hua Securities.
This research is for our clients only. This research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as
such. We seek to update our research as appropriate, but various regulations may prevent us from doing so. Other than certain industry reports published on a periodic basis, the large majority of
reports are published at irregular intervals as appropriate in the analyst's judgment.
Goldman Sachs Gao Hua, an affiliate of Gao Hua Securities, conducts an investment banking business. Gao Hua Securities, Goldman Sachs Gao Hua and their affiliates have investment banking and
other business relationships with a substantial percentage of the companies referred to in this document.
Our salespeople, traders, and other professionals may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies to our clients and our proprietary trading desks that reflect opinions that are
contrary to the opinions expressed in this research. Our proprietary trading desks and investing businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations or views
expressed in this research.
Gao Hua Securities and its affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell,
the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.
This research is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. It does not constitute a personal
recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Clients should consider whether any advice or recommendation in this
research is suitable for their particular circumstances and, if appropriate, seek professional advice, including tax advice. The price and value of investments referred to in this research and the income
from them may fluctuate. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have
adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments.
Certain transactions, including those involving futures, options, and other derivatives, give rise to substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. Investors should review current options
disclosure documents which are available from Gao Hua sales representatives or at http://www.theocc.com/publications/risks/riskchap1.jsp. Transactions cost may be significant in option strategies
calling for multiple purchase and sales of options such as spreads. Supporting documentation will be supplied upon request.
Copyright 2010 Beijing Gao Hua Securities Company Limited
No part of this material may be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or (ii) redistributed without the prior written consent of Beijing Gao Hua
Securities Company Limited.

Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research 20

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