INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY

Int. J. Climatol. 23: 11191125 (2003)

Published online in Wiley InterScience (www.interscience.wiley.com). DOI: 10.1002/joc.927

SHORT COMMUNICATION
FREQUENCY OF BAY OF BENGAL CYCLONIC STORMS AND
DEPRESSIONS CROSSING DIFFERENT COASTAL ZONES
Md. MAHBUB ALAM,a, *Md. ARIF HOSSAINb and SULTANA SHAFEEc
a Department of Physics, BIT Khulna, Khulna 9203, Bangladesh
b Department of Mathematics, BIT Khulna, Khulna 9203, Bangladesh
c Department of Physics, Dhaka University, Dhaka 1000, Bangladesh

Received 10 December 2002

Revised 30 March 2003
Accepted 9 April 2003

ABSTRACT
All the storms and depressions that formed in the Bay of Bengal during 197499 have been analysed. The number of
occurrences in July is not in harmony with that of other months of the monsoon. Regions stricken are taken into account
on a monthly, seasonal and annual basis. The Indian coast faces almost an equal number of storms and depressions that are
formed from June to November. The most vulnerable months for storms are May, October and November for Bangladesh;
May for Myanmar; June, August and September for KolkataVishakhapatnam in India and October and November for
VishakhapatnamTamilnadu in India. Most of the monsoon depressions cross the KolkataVishakhapatnam coast of
India. The frequency of formation has been observed to decrease during the period of analysis. It is also observed that
the frequency distribution of the Bay of Bengal storms has two peaks: one in the month of May and the other in the
month of November. Copyright 2003 Royal Meteorological Society.

KEY WORDS: cyclonic disturbances; frequency distribution; storms; Bangladesh coast; Indian coast

1. INTRODUCTION

Only 7% of global tropical cyclones (Neumann, 1993) occur in the northern Indian Ocean and they are
the most deadly. The shallow waters of the Bay of Bengal, the low flat coastal terrain, and the funnel shape
(McBride, 1995) of the coastline lead to devastating losses of lives and property due to the surge from a storm
of even moderate intensity. The coastal boundary of the Bay of Bengal comprises Myanmar, Bangladesh,
the eastern coast of India and Sri Lanka. To verify the different features, if any, the eastern coast of India is
divided into two regions: KolkataVishakhapatnam and VishakhapatnamTamilnadu.
The seasonal distribution of tropical cyclone formation is related to the seasonal variations in the location
of the monsoon trough. Gray (1968) points out that the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) may occur
as a convergence line between easterly trade winds from the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, or as a
convergence zone in westerly monsoon flow.
A monsoon trough is a climatologically preferred region for tropical cyclone formation. Most of the Bay
of Bengal depressions form within the monsoon trough. Formations occur either as a reintensification of
westward-propagating disturbances or from in situ disturbances that develop within the trough. When the
monsoon trough is located closer to land in August, the disturbances still form over the warm waters of the
Bay of Bengal, but then they track away northwest onto the Indian subcontinent, still remaining as monsoon

* Correspondence to: Md. Mahbub Alam, Department of Physics, BIT Khulna, Khulna-9203, Bangladesh;
e-mail: malam60@hotmail.com

Copyright 2003 Royal Meteorological Society

1120 M. M. ALAM, M. A. HOSSAIN AND S. SHAFEE

depressions. So, in the monsoon season, the percentage of occurrence of storms with respect to the other
seasons is very low. Another reason for this low occurrence is that the vertical wind shear, which removes
the heating due to convection that is necessary to lower the surface pressure, remains high and inhibits
intensification. In the post-monsoon period, the monsoon trough migrates and is typically aligned eastwest
over the open water. Its position changes from approximately 20 N at the beginning of the season to 5 N by
the end. Easterlies to the north of the trough and westerlies to the south are ideal for tropical cyclone formation.
Rao (1981) analysed the disturbances that formed in the Bay of Bengal during 18901969. He observed
that storm formations for the pre-monsoon and monsoon periods are almost the same, but this does not agree
with the general impression. Subbaramayya and Rao (1984) have studied the interrelationship between the
frequencies of Bay of Bengal cyclones in different months of the monsoon and the post-monsoon periods
and observed that they are independent. Joseph (1995) studied the annual and the seasonal frequencies of
depressions and cyclonic storms over the Indian seas and their directions of motion and pointed out a strong
decreasing linear trend.
In the present work, we have analysed the frequency of storm formation and the number of storms that
crossed the coast, on monthly and seasonal basis of cyclonic disturbances for the period 197499. We have
also analysed the frequencies of both storms and depressions and of storms alone crossing the different coasts
of the Bay of Bengal. The frequency of storms and depressions that crossed the different coasts and that
weakened with their 5 year moving average is also discussed. The objective of this work is to identify the
most vulnerable coasts, if any, to the storms and depressions with respect to the months and seasons.

2. DATA

The data concerning the occurrences of both storms and depressions and of storms alone for the period
197499 were collected from the Special Weather Bulletins issued by the Storm Warning Centre (SWC) of
the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD).

3. RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS

3.1. Annual and seasonal frequency of storms and depressions

The frequency of storms and depressions that formed in the Bay of Bengal and those that crossed the
coasts during the 26 year period 197499 are presented in Table I, from which the following inferences can
be drawn:

1. A total of 202 storms and depressions formed during 197499 in the Bay of Bengal, 90 of which intensified
into cyclonic stages. On average, 7.77 storms and depressions and 3.46 storms formed in the Bay of Bengal
during this period.
2. The annual average number of storms and depressions that crossed the coasts is 6.69 in a year, which is
86.14% of the total annual number of storms and depressions that formed.
3. The annual average number of storms that crossed the coasts is 3.12, which is 90% of the annual number
of storms that formed.
4. The southwest monsoon (JuneSeptember) contributes 43.68% of the annual total storms and depressions
that crossed the coasts, and the post-monsoon period (OctoberNovember) contributes 37.36%.
5. On average, the maximum frequency of storms and depressions crossing the coasts is 1.38 and occurs in
the month of October; that of storms is 1.00 and occurs in November.
6. Of all the storms that crossed the coasts, 20.99% crossed in the pre-monsoon season (MarchMay) and
54.32% crossed in the post-monsoon season, which supported the general impression.

From Table I, it is observed that the total number of storms and depressions that weakened in the Bay of
Bengal without entering land was 28. In November, it is seen that though 43 storms and depressions formed,
Copyright 2003 Royal Meteorological Society Int. J. Climatol. 23: 11191125 (2003)
 BAY OF BENGAL CYCLONIC STORMS 1121

Table I. Frequency of storms and depressions crossing coasts in the Bay of Bengal during 197499

Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Total

Storms and depression

1. No. formed 1 2 1 3 23 22 10 26 21 39 43 11 202
2. No. crossing coast 1 1 0 3 21 22 10 24 20 36 29 7 174
3. (2) as percentage of (1) (%) 100 50 0 100 91 100 100 92 95 92 67 64 86
Storms
1. No. formed 0 2 0 3 14 4 0 4 5 18 32 8 90
2. No. crossing coast 0 1 0 3 14 4 0 4 5 18 26 6 81
3. (2) as percentage of (1) (%) 0 50 0 100 100 100 0 100 100 100 81 75 90

Seasonal frequency Winter Pre-monsoon Monsoon Post-monsoon Total

(crossing the coast)

1. Storms and depressions 9 24 76 65 174

Percentage of total (%) 5.17 13.79 43.68 37.36 100
2. Storms 7 17 13 44 81
Percentage of total (%) 8.64 20.99 16.05 54.32 100
3. (2) as percentage of (1) (%) 78 71 17 68 47

only 29 crossed the different coasts; the rest, amounting to 32.56%, actually weakened in the Bay of Bengal
itself. It is also to be noted that 50% of the total number of cyclonic disturbances that weakened inside the
Bay of Bengal during the 26 year period occurred in the month of November alone.

3.2. Frequency of depressions and storms crossing different coastal zones

The number of storms and depressions that crossed the coasts of Myanmar, Bangladesh, KolkataVishakha-
patnam, VishakhapatnamTamilnadu and Sri Lanka around the Bay of Bengal is presented in Table II. The
inferences drawn from a detailed analysis of the results in Table II are as follows:

1. Myanmar: the average annual storms and depressions crossing the Myanmar coast is only 0.58, which
corresponds to only 8.62% of the total for the different coasts. The annual average for the storms is only
0.35, and 11.11% of the total storms crossed the Myanmar coast during the period. The month of May
has the highest monthly average (0.31), and 53.33% of all the storms and depressions that crossed the
Myanmar coast did so during this month.
2. Bangladesh: the coastal belt of Bangladesh accounts for 23.56% of the annual total of Bay of Bengal
storms and depressions crossing the coasts. The average number of storms and depressions crossing the
Bangladesh coast in a year is 1.58 and that of the storms is 1.00. It is seen from Table II that most of the
storms crossed the Bangladesh coast during the pre-monsoon and the post-monsoon periods.
3. KolkataVishakhapatnam: 36.78% of all the storms and depressions crossed the KolkataVishakhapatnam
coast of India during 197499. The average number of storms and depressions crossing this coast per
year is 2.46, and 17.28% of all the storms crossed this coast during the period considered. The average
number of storms crossing in a year is 0.54. Of those that crossed this coast, 57.14% crossed during the
southwest monsoon season and 35.71% crossed during the post-monsoon season, i.e. most of the storms
crossed this coast during the monsoon period.
4. VishakhapatnamTamilnadu: 29.89% of all the storms and depressions and 37.04% of all the storms
crossed VishakhapatnamTamilnadu coast of India during 197499. The average number of storms and
depressions crossing the coast per year is 2.00 and that for storms is 1.15. Of the storms that crossed this
coast, 80% crossed during the post-monsoon season and 10% crossed during the winter season, i.e. most
of the storms crossed this coast during the post-monsoon period.
Copyright 2003 Royal Meteorological Society Int. J. Climatol. 23: 11191125 (2003)
1122 M. M. ALAM, M. A. HOSSAIN AND S. SHAFEE

Table II. Frequency of storms and depressions crossing the coasts of Bangladesh, different parts of India, Myanmar and
Sri Lanka during 197499

Coastal belt Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Total Percentage
of total
(%)

Storms and depressions

1. Myanmar 1 1 0 1 8 0 0 0 0 1 3 0 15 8.62
2. Bangladesh 0 0 0 2 8 6 0 3 3 9 8 2 41 23.56
3. Kolkata 0 0 0 0 2 12 9 20 14 5 2 0 64 36.78
Vishakhapatnam
Vishakhapatnam 0 0 0 0 3 4 1 1 3 21 15 4 52 29.89
Tamilnadu
4. Sri Lanka 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 1.15
Total 1 1 0 3 21 22 10 24 20 36 29 7 174 100
Average 0.04 0.04 0 0.12 0.81 0.85 0.38 0.92 0.77 1.38 1.12 0.27 6.69
Percentage of annual (%) 0.57 0.57 0 1.72 12.07 12.64 5.75 13.79 11.49 20.69 16.67 4.02 100
Storms
1. Myanmar 0 1 0 1 4 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 9 11.11
2. Bangladesh 0 0 0 2 7 1 0 1 2 4 7 2 26 32.10
3. Kolkata 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 3 3 4 1 0 14 17.28
Vishakhapatnam
Vishakhapatnam 0 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 10 14 3 30 37.04
Tamilnadu
4. Sri Lanka 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 2.47
Total 0 1 0 3 14 4 0 4 5 18 26 6 81 100
Average 0 0.04 0 0.12 0.54 0.15 0 0.15 0.19 0.69 1.00 0.23 3.12
Percentage of annual (%) 0 1.23 0 3.70 17.28 4.94 0 4.94 6.17 22.22 32.10 7.41 100

5. Sri Lanka: during 197499 only two storms and depressions crossed the Sri Lanka coast, one of which
crossed in the month of November and the other in December. The annual average is only 0.08.

3.3. Seasonal vulnerability of different coastal zones

Pie diagrams are drawn based on the storms (Figure 1(a)(d)) and depressions (Figure 2(a)(d)) that
crossed the different coasts of the Bay of Bengal seasonally. The diagrams provide the information of the
seasonal vulnerability of different coasts to storms and depressions as a percentage, and show that:

1. The VishakhapatnamTamilnadu coast of India and the Bangladesh coast are vulnerable to storms in
winter, but the Bangladesh coast is less vulnerable. For depressions, the VishakhapatnamTamilnadu and
Myanmar coasts are equally vulnerable.
2. The Bangladesh coast is more vulnerable to storms than the Myanmar coast in the pre-monsoon period,
which is also vulnerable. However, for depressions, the Myanmar coast is the most vulnerable.
3. Almost two-thirds of the storms that crossed in the monsoon period did so along the Kolkata
Vishakhapatnam coast, whereas in the case of depressions the fraction is about three-quarters.
4. In the post-monsoon season, the VishakhapatnamTamilnadu and Bangladesh coasts are vulnerable to
storms, with the VishakhapatnamTamilnadu coast facing 54.55% of the storms and the Bangladesh coast
facing 25% of the storms. For depressions, the scenario remains the same, with an increase in the percentage
for both the coasts.

3.4. The 5 year moving average of storms and depressions of different coastal zones
The frequency of occurrence of storms and depressions and 5 year moving averages for the different coastal
boundaries are presented in Figure 3(a)(f), from which the following observations can be made:
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 BAY OF BENGAL CYCLONIC STORMS 1123

a) b) Vis-Tam Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka Myanmar
11.76% 0.00%
14.29% 14.29% Myanmar
Cal-Vis
29.41%
5.88%

Bangladesh
28.57%
Vis-Tam Bangladesh
42.86% 52.94%
Cal-Vis
0.00%

c) Myanmar Sri Lanka d) Sri Lanka Myanmar

Vis-Tam 0.00% 0.00% 2.27% 6.82%
7.69%
Bangladesh
30.77%
Bangladesh
25.00%

Vis-Tam
54.55%
Cal-Vis
Cal-Vis
61.54%
11.36%

Figure 1. Pie diagrams of the storms that crossed the different coasts in different seasons during 197499: (a) winter; (b) pre-monsoon;
(c) monsoon; (d) post-monsoon

a) Sri Lanka b) Sri Lanka

0.00% Vis-Tam 0.00%
14.29%

Myanmar Cal-Vis
Vis-Tam 50.00% 14.29%
50.00%
Myanmar
57.14%

Cal-Vis Bangladesh
Bangladesh
0.00% 0.00%
14.29%

c) d) Sri Lanka Myanmar

Sri Lanka Myanmar
0.00% 4.76%
Vis-Tam 0.00% 0.00% Bangladesh
12.70% 12.70%
Bangladesh
28.57%

Vis-Tam
57.14%
Cal-Vis
74.60% Cal-Vis
9.52%

Figure 2. Pie diagrams of the depressions that crossed the different coasts in different seasons during 197499: (a) winter;
(b) pre-monsoon; (c) monsoon; (d) post-monsoon

1. The vulnerability of the Myanmar (Figure 3(a)) and Sri Lanka (Figure 3(e)) coasts to facing any storms
and depressions decreased significantly.
2. For the Bangladesh coast (Figure 3(b)) and weakened storms and depressions in the Bay of Bengal
(Figure 3(f)), although the number of storms and depressions has decreased, the 5 year moving average
has not changed much.
Copyright 2003 Royal Meteorological Society Int. J. Climatol. 23: 11191125 (2003)
1124 M. M. ALAM, M. A. HOSSAIN AND S. SHAFEE

a) 3.5 b) 4.5
3 4
Frequency Frequency
5 Yr. Mov. Ave. 3.5 5 Yr. Mov. Ave.
2.5
Occurrence

Occurrence
3
2 2.5
1.5 2
1.5
1
1
0.5 0.5
0 0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year Year

c) 7 d) 4.5
Frequency 4
6
5 Yr. Mov. Ave. 3.5
5
Occurrence 3
Occurrence

4 2.5

3 2
1.5
2
1
Frequency
1 0.5 5 Yr. Mov. Ave.
0 0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year Year

e) 1.2 f) 3.5
Frequency
Frequency
1 3
5 Yr. Mov. Ave. 5 Yr. Mov. Ave.
2.5
Occurrence

0.8
Occurrence

2
0.6
1.5
0.4
1
0.2 0.5

0 0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year Year

Figure 3. Frequencies and 5 year moving average of storms and depressions of different coastal zones: (a) Myanmar; (b) Bangladesh;
(c) KolkataVishakhapatnam; (d) VishakhapatnamTamilnadu; (e) Sri Lanka; (f) weakened in the Bay of Bengal

3. For the KolkataVishakhapatnam coast of India the numbers for the occurrences of storms and depressions
and their 5 year moving average (Figure 3(c)) decreased sharply. The same situation prevails for the
VishakhapatnamTamilnadu coast (Figure 3(d)) of India.

4. CONCLUSIONS

1. Bangladesh is the most vulnerable zone for storms during the months of May and November. In the month
of October, out of nine severe cyclonic storms only one crossed the Bangladesh coast during the period
of study.
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 BAY OF BENGAL CYCLONIC STORMS 1125

2. Myanmar is most vulnerable during May for both storms and depressions and for storms alone, but as a
whole its vulnerability has reduced.
3. Most of the depressions in the monsoon season crossed the KolkataVishakhapatnam coast of India.
4. The KolkataVishakhapatnam coast of India is most vulnerable for storms during the monsoon season,
except for July.
5. The VishakhapatnamTamilnadu coast of India is most vulnerable for storms during the post-monsoon
season.
6. The seasonal frequency distribution for both cases is bimodal, with the primary maximum occurring in
November and a secondary maximum in May.
7. The number of storms and depressions decreases gradually during the period of our analysis.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

We are indebted to S. Karmakar, Deputy Director, BMD, for giving many valuable suggestions. We would
also like to thank Mr Shah Alam, Assistant Director, and Mr Sujit Kumar Deb Sharma, Meteorologist and
System Manager, SWC, BMD, for supplying the data and helping us in various ways.

REFERENCES
Gray WM. 1968. Global view of the origin of the tropical disturbances. Monthly Weather Review 96: 669700.
Joseph PV. 1995. Changes in the frequency and tracks of tropical cyclones in the Indian seas. In Workshop on Global Change and
Tropical Cyclones, Dhaka, Bangladesh, 1821 December.
McBride JL. 1995. Tropical cyclone formation. In Global Perspectives on Tropical Cyclones. World Meteorological Organisation:
Geneva, WMO/TD-No. 693.
Neumann CJ. 1993. Global overview. In Global Guide to Tropical Cyclone Forecasting. World Meteorological Organisation: Geneva;
1.11.56.
Rao KN. 1981. Tropical cyclones of the Indian seas. In World Survey of Climatology, vol. 9. Elsevier: 257280.
Subbaramayya I, Rao SRM. 1984. Frequency of Bay of Bengal cyclones in the postmonsoon season. Monthly Weather Review 112:
16401642.

Copyright 2003 Royal Meteorological Society Int. J. Climatol. 23: 11191125 (2003)