Foll Mo de| Ev 1x, xs)= 8.4 8x, + Bx, —X,=dese x,= T(bilre) least squares estimates bo= ky? br=-296 bi=aas int elcept lege 324 yb, ? : a.ag bike 4l7+22,5267, Q 2,26 “tegen hee pag Jez U2 ~ dabx, fearess to ali ne tov. bik Ag fo “f- i 67,1 -226X,gs) [eel depends db het ween b, and b* ends on balance Padeea 50 fends oN sample Covaliarce si =b? iF 5(K,Xs)=0 Relationship betwee G, @, and 6 depends oa the f°? ulation Covariance 6-6 if =howien Ta oof dose t exercise exam le the valves m X, and x are chooser esearch ef siace This is aa experiment al study, 50 sly Xa)= T+ this was an setpatna sty ‘ly Thea X, and Xy wool Id be fardoml y chossea, then siace X, is Contiavoy wll aluays have s (ky X4) #O even if ol, X%,)=0| poh is the, tpl Lich 4 between yo,b,) and (be, b* already seen D,=b. because 5(x,x)=0 es Sn ogee -aetautyt Tar egg b= bh 7 | intercept fic biking | be+ bs = bu,7 t2aS=62d | e767 9 6.9 | [al wolked i to be overage utercept be a s(X, XajJ=o ad Aen Number Oe dloservations iA 0 Ki ht oad joaging afouf).ase Why does balance matter ® Lpappes® che Was Q atRiene | ea Gace foups, Ou Ino Hie efbect “ ni 6 jitthbes ye) 304 0 r io¢ ps Ire EG dose, b Ire) dose Suppose we aet data that is act | pogeostye most iets iA waniss acoup Q hiah doses and most fom biking afoul oA low dose ye Sogn Oat ao ae s 2 <—bikiing data dost“wh 3 ihe etfiAs tae fit o regression Mos ithost exce/cise withia each | eee ° exercise a oe is ws te XK,= dose ebtect, ae ao | Fea tession lies Vine does : not have b,=O Joye dose This iS called confoualin ‘Dose, and Rr erne ale confounded. “saictyaal ed" Mears "rorfused™ iB cts of dose are cortused by fects Rxelase| (IS | This is wh it the dose a net faa allocated ty cvbyects (50 study observation al) We Can Neves chaclud de a obseive paola ip is Causal. A Qlier be dose is confounde by one ol mole other variables i we ae model thet inckdes both dose and &xere: SC, WR woIld see No evidence ot 4 dose effet EM Ix, al= Ot +x, +8 x, X= dose Faportart Fact it tact) T (bike) oS x bh S bo s0 i — Lestimted | dort =~ [eafession <== ae ‘Aclationshi betweea fase safe as4 with exerdise ia Model ad ose slope without exercise ia move} ¥ 5 (Ky, Xa) he | 7 . | G 7 > & = San Se pop tee = bile f kx eae ~ a dose Wy th this da Ta if we fi t a fhaflosion model mth dose on EWIx,)= 6. +8, x, X,=dese \egst atte estimate of will be vey Llose to O aad mos lel I *e a Zh IR eked test ae He° b= =0 woul fe ect| a would also find in model with ose tee clcisG = ENIX) Xe)= C+, +x, oie %=T (bike) iF cov(X,,X) is close te © thea by wb and if cod (XX )=0 “then b,=b" So for this second example dose and exercise ale ngt lontoun edAnother cxae Wee Mg ose there eo 18. dese f No excise efte bso Re (Y|dose, 4) \° ou) = E(Y| dose, bike) dose et ha aff ens for if de bat alee Pra valarced 7 em bike data$3 E(x|1x,)=6.+6.%, xX =doe E(X Ix, Xa)= 2 +07X, + b,x x21 (bike) In this examfle Creo Aelatisashi if between Ce ession patamele iS same QS rah tioash etweer least squares esti mates * O(K,)%) br=8,- ey Se 50 tor this examile G7=8 because Qr-O We don't feb b =O heeqise fant on atvat 104) $Q-4 ay Ibe is, cl Ore tio - Rave bow br