CONlj AUG 1 8 1979
el SALVADOR LURCHES TOWARD ERUPTION
By Karen DeYoung
'WeshlnfWn Post Foreign Service
SA^^ SALVADOR, Aug. 23-Al*
though El Salvadors rightist govern
ment, haa promised free elections for
***,^*r8t time in years next March,
many informed observers here be
lieve jhe government may not last un
til then.
A number of political and diplo
matic analysts feel general armed re-
belliop could erupt in this poor, over-
American nation
within two to three months.
Beleaguered President Carlos Hum-
receritljr announced
moves intended to defuse opposition,
Including readmissiori of all political
exiles and international supervision of
the March congressional apd munici
pal elections.
Last week, Jlomero, an Army gen-
stunned members.of his own mil-
itary-based Party of National jConcilia-
tion by saying that, after more than 45
years of military presidents, the par
ty s 1082Candidate may be a civilian.
GCn..6mero also,invited the inter
national and local Red Cross to in
spect the prison's to disprove charges
by the opposiUon and the Catholic
Church that scotes^ of political prison
ers ere being held secretly.
But the corfsensus among moderate
and leftist opposition groups, as %ell
as within diplomatic and some, fnili-
tary circles, is that these first glim
mers of what Latihg Alherican^ call a
salidaan exiP"from authoritarian
rule into democracy, are probably too
little, too late, and do not address the
social and econoTpIc inequities from
which El Salvadors problems ulti
mately stem.
yqars has .suf
fered both governnient repression and
left- and right-wing, extremism, inri-
dents of terrorism and labor, strife
have reached fever pitch.
Two priests have been murdered in
the past two months, allegedly by
right-wing terrorists who charged the
church with subversion. Six clergy,
men have been assassinated since
Romeros inauguration in 1977. The
.-\ug. 4 shooting of the Rev. Arlirio
Napoleon Macias as he was sai-ing
mass in the San Esteban Catarina
parish was followed within days by
the towns government-allied mayor.
In* the small town of Armenia, 30
mile^ northwest of here, the mayor, a
member of'the ruling party, was mur
dered in April. Last week, his- replace
ment also was' assassinated.
Dozens of priests and nuns are on a
week-long hunger strike at a down-
88
1 795
anmn/thr
the "Inure
iiie lai/ure of. the majority to rip.
**
the minders of priests
^ P^^tJation, the government.
El ^st three of
nipri^h s principal cities are occu-
UnhPri members of and
the
United Front for Popular Action
Revolutionaiy Bloc peas
ant-based federations of mimam
cISumT'" '"^rnaUoSv
Persns during and following
similar protests m May, Romero haf
said, the security forces, will not al
low themselves to be' provoked."
Blit tempers are wearing thin.
Similar government .promises have
been made concerning militant labor
strikes underway at four ma.ior facto
ries here.
The strikes .reportedly are organ
ized by a committee associated with
the* Popular Revolutionary Bloc. The
strikers use similar jtac|ics of taking
over industrial p|ants.gn4 holding'ex-'
ecutives or other workers hostage. At
one clothing .-assembly plant where
workers are. demanding a 100 percent
wage increase, American general man
ager William Boorstein has now been
held capti.ve for more than a week.
[On Wednesday, , news services
quoted officials as. reporting,. three
members of,[he Bloc were killed in a
cia.sh ,wiWi inational'' guardsmen on a
highway north of San Salvador.]
While the military has accused the
popular groiips of'guertilla-allied sub
version, and there-is a general feeling
among moderate political groups that
their members are sometimes manipu
lated by militant leftist ideologues,
there is wide agreement outside the
government that most of their de--
mands are legitimate!
Moderate leadens- and diplomatic
sources are concerned that the shat
tered strikes and takeovers are test
runs for a nationwide shutdown.
^ M the same time, a populjir mutiny
IS feared. There is near p^nic within
government, business and politiral
gmups that' El Salvadors guerrilla.^
will seek' to imitate the recent revolu
tion in Nicaragua next dobr.
Nicaraguas new Sandjnista-lerl gov-
ernmont has strongly .stated it will not
export its revolution, and there i.s no
evidence that i has. BUt San-Salvador
is nfe with rumors that, in the words
of one leafiing politician, "there, are a
thousand guerrilla soldiers, armed
and ready to get. '
El Salvadors own guerrilla groups,
three separate Marxist organizations
whose numbers are wildly estimated
at from 20 or 30 tosevepal hundred
ISLA 464 ;19lh Street Oakland, CA 94612
members each, have spared no effnn
to spread tta word" that they Intend I
^"'^rasue. eccording to nj
diplomatic observer.
"They talk about their seasoned
veterans coming back from the war
there,; the observer said, -and loan*
given- the Sandinistas being repaid
[with soldiers.] They talk about
^uting ^ar criminals in the streets
by the end of September.
While conditions he.re are general!\-
similar, they are vastly different
specifics from .Nicaraguk while it was
under the rule of the Somoza family
The guerrilla groups are far more i.sP.
lated, and les.s ,willing to comnromiso
and aceomniodatfe moderates, than the
Sandinisttfs.
Opposition in. El Salvadqr is focused
not on a ,man or ^ (iynasty, but on a
system of official, conuiptidri and op-
pression Md the agr|culture-based
economy. The more than'90 percent of
the peopl^^,^hb work qn, rather than
own, farm land are effectively ex
cluded from the money economy.
As in Ificaragua, the lack of politi-
cal acc^ssy aqd. government intransi
gence toward substantive change have
proiided fertile ground for violent
eruption.
There is broad agreement -that El
Salvador i a battleground between
two extrenies, with the vast 'majority
of its ,4.8 million people caught in the
middle-and daily becoming more radi
calized. The level of agreement breaks
down, however, on the questiops of
who the extremists Are and what to do
about them.
The government denies authorship
or approval of right-wing terrorism,
but It poi-tbays itself as unabW to con
trol thO extremists. It counters every
charge about, the right with a com
plaint about the leh. . .
Still,.';t says it recognizes 'the need
for chqnge. "The armed forces are
ready for democi*acy, a goveiiiment
spokesman said. There Are going to
be free elections hpre in March.
To opposition politicians, the me
chanics of a free election are mean
ingless if, as one politician said, vou
can drop your ballot in the box, and it
gets counted, but you can still get
beaten up for going to a campaign
rally." -
Antonio Morales Erlich, vice presi
dent of, the'Meading opposition Chris
tian Democrats, is a longtime political
exile wh'b beriefited from recent re-
forms by ..returning here from Costa
Kica three weeks ago.
m a televised .speech last night
marking tl^q strongest public opposi-^
tion statement jiebe since the 1976
elections. Morales Erlich said re-
neated electoral fraud and official cor-
WP AUG 2 4 1979
niption have led to the total illegiti-
.macy of the government, its repudia
tion by the people, and the destruc
tion of our institutions.
The government, he charged, says
from now on theyre going to be good.
If they had said that two years ago
whed we asked them to, wed be in a
different situation now. Nobody be
lieves what they say about
liberty.. ,The problem is now. It is
not a long-term! question of waiting
until 1982 presidential elections, he
said. Thousands more people will be
dead by ^en.
I The Christian Democrats, along
with sectors of the church and more
liberal business sectors, have begun a.
series of pieetings with labor, peasant
and pther mass,groups in hopes.of
coming up, with a plan to pressure the
government from -several directions.
Bqt the process is a slow one, and
there is a feeling that time is running
out.
One solution that has so far been
only whispered about is Romeros re
placement.
During- a little-publicized visit here
several weeks ago, sources said, U.S.
Assistant Secretary of State for Latin
America Viron P. ,Vaky expressed
strong concern to Romero and sug
gested that the date of presidential
elections be substantially advanced.
Romero, the sources .said, answered
that such A move would violate the
constitution: i Reconsidered', and mkde it known to the State De
.Others speak of- the establishment
-of a transitional civilian-military junta
or evqn a. military coup from the cen
ter to forestall the possibility that one
i"
. may be coming from the,far right.
Some say Romero is the problem,'
one-observer said, but others say it
wouldnt make any difference if he
was gone. "Most just say its too late,
, too late for anything.
WP
El Salvador Leaders
Granting of Anmesty
Is Welcomed by U.S.
By Katherine Ellison
Washington Post Stall Writer
The State Departjnent reacted favorably yesterday
to a statement Thursday by President Cto-los Hum
berto Romero of El Salvador announcing a general
amnesty for political exiles And inviting the Organiza
tion of American States to send observers io verify
the fairness of next years congressional elections.
In the past, the State Department has been critied
of human rights abuses, by the Romero government
Escalating civil violence and open political pro
tests have made the Salvadbran military regime
fearful that it may face the same fate ap Nicaraguan
President Anastasio Somoza, who . was ousted this
summer after years of insurrection. It was that fear,
accorqing to observers, that prompted that govern
ment tp annqunce the reforms. . '
Romero, who claims El Salyador has no political
prisoners, also invited the Red Cross to inspect the
nations jails to see for itself if ibis .wqrds ate true.
We. consider these positive measures, which
should reduce te.nsions:and establish crpdible demo*
cratic processes,* State Department spokesman
Thomas Reston said yesterday. ^,
In 1976, El Salvador, along with Bra?il and Guate
mala,, turned down all U.S. nlilitary aid after the
Carter administration announced that such aid
alight be withdrawn As a sanpt^bn against human
rights violations. El Salvador and Guatemala later
partment thAt they would accepj; such aid if offered.
Defense Department and intelligence representa
tives have argued that inilita'ry>a id should be recon
sidered, and that the United States should try to as
sist El Salvadors armed forces to pfevent the fall of
Romero.
Bht one State Department soutce said that the effort
might be wasted on a military Tegime which many
administration officials believe is unsteady.
The administration is very concerned about in
creasing pplarization in El' Salvador and has engaged
in intensive diplomatic efforts to try -to encourage
the Romero government' to liberalize,'he said. But
such may be too late,/ he added, because
of, Romeros poor human rights record.
A State Department report to Confess early this
year charged that Salvadoran security forces used
torture, including electric shock and rajqe, -on pris
oners. There have been no public inve^gations of
these charges, the report added,,-
The State Department has also accused the
Romero government of manipulating and falsifying
the elections of 1978.
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