5/20/2017 CosteffectivenessofbiofuelsandtheirabilitytocutfossilfuelusequestionedScienceDaily

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Costeffectivenessofbiofuelsandtheirabilitytocutfossilfuelusequestioned
Date: November29,2011

Source: OregonStateUniversity

Summary: Anewstudyquestionsthecosteffectivenessofbiofuelsandsaystheywouldbarelyreducefossilfueluseandwouldlikelyincrease
greenhousegasemissions.

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FULLSTORY

Canolaseedsareusedtomakebiodiesel.

Credit:PhotobyLynnKetchum

AnewstudybyeconomistsatOregonStateUniversityquestionsthecosteffectivenessofbiofuelsandsaystheywould
barelyreducefossilfueluseandwouldlikelyincreasegreenhousegasemissions.

Theideathatbiofuelscanreducedependencyonfossilfuelsandmitigateclimatechangehasledgovernmentstopromotethemassubstitutesfor
gasolineandpetroleumbaseddiesel,usingmandatesandsubsidies,saidBillJaeger,theleadauthoronthestudy.

"Ourresultssuggestthatexistingbiofuelpolicieshavebeenverycostly,producenegligiblereductionsinfossilfueluseandincrease,ratherthan
decrease,greenhousegasemissions,"saidJaeger,aprofessorintheagriculturalandresourceeconomicsdepartmentatOSU.

Biofuelswereinitiallyseenasasolutiontoenergyandenvironmentalproblems,Jaegersaid,becausethecarbondioxidethat'semittedwhenthey're
burnedisequivalenttowhattheyhadabsorbedfromtheatmospherewhenthecropsweregrowing.Thus,biofuelswereassumedtoaddlittleorno
carbondioxidetotheatmosphere.

Butthebiggerpictureismorecomplex,Jaegersaid,inpartbecausebiofuelsareproducedandtransportedusingfossilfuels.Forexample,nitrogen
fertilizer,whichismadeusingnaturalgas,isusedtogrowcornforethanol.Additionally,growingbiofuelfeedstockscanpushfoodproductiononto
previouslyunfarmedland,accordingtowelldocumentedresearch,Jaegersaid.Whenthisnewacreageisclearedandtilled,itcanreleasecarbonthat
accumulatedoverlongperiodsinsoilandvegetation,thusincreasinggreenhousegasemissions,hesaid.

Thecostsofthesesideeffectstendtobeoverlookedbypoliciesthatfocusonlyongallonforgallonsubstitutions,headded.

Theresearchersfocusedonthemajormandatedandcurrentlyusedbiofuelsworldwide:cornethanol,soybeanbiodiesel,cellulosicethanolfrom
switchgrassgrownintheUnitedStates,canolabiodieselproducedinEurope,andsugarcaneethanolproducedinBrazilandexportedtotheUnited
StatesorEurope.

Theyevaluatedthemintermsoftheircontributiontoreducingfossilfueluseandgreenhousegasemissions.Theyalsocomparedtheircostsand
effectivenesstotwoalternativepolicies:anincreaseinthegastaxandtheimplementationofenergyefficiencyimprovements.

Theirresultsindicatedthatallofthebiofuelcropsweremuchlesscosteffectivethanthetwoalternativepoliciesintermsofreducinggreenhousegas
emissionsandfossilfueluse.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/11/111129123255.htm 1/3
5/20/2017 CosteffectivenessofbiofuelsandtheirabilitytocutfossilfuelusequestionedScienceDaily
"Eachdollarspentonenergyimprovementprogramswouldbe20timesmoreeffectiveinreducingfossilfueluseandgreenhousegasemissionsthana
similarcostforthecornethanolprogram,"Jaegersaid."Likewise,agastaxincreasewouldbe21timesmoreeffectivethanpromotingcellulosic
ethanol."

Overall,itwasestimatedthatU.S.producedbiofuelswouldcostbetween20and31timesmorethanenergyefficiencyimprovementsthatwouldreduce
gasconsumptionby1percent.ThestudyalsoreportedthatcombiningagastaxincreasewithenergyefficiencyimprovementscouldreduceU.S.fossil
fuelusebymorethan15percent(orcutpetroleumfuelusebymorethan35percent).

Next,theresearcherslookedathowmuchitwouldcosttoachievegovernmentaltargetsforbiofueluseandwhattheimpactwouldbeonfossilfueluse.
IntheU.S.,theRenewableFuelStandardcallsfor15billiongallonsofconventionalbiofuelsourcessuchascornethanol1billiongallonsofbiomass
baseddiesel16billiongallonsofadvancedcellulosicbiofuelsand4billiongallonsofotheradvancedbiofuelstobeusedintransportationfuelby2022.
U.S.cornethanolproductionhasalreadyreached13billiongallons,Jaegersaid,butcellulosicethanol,asocalledsecondgenerationbiofuel,isnotyet
commerciallyproducedintheU.S.

Theresearchersconcludedthatallofthesebiofuelmandatescombinedwouldreducefossilfuelusebylessthan2.5percent,orthesameamountthat
agastaxincreaseof25centspergalloncouldachieve,butatanestimatedcostof$67billioncomparedwithacostof$6billionwithagastax.

Todirectlycomparethecosteffectivenessofthebiofuelswiththetwoalternativeapproaches,partoftheresearchers'analysisevaluatedthebiofuelsin
combinationwithforestcarbonsequestrationpracticessothattheywouldproducethesamemixofreductionsinfossilfueluseandgreenhousegas
emissionsasagastaxincrease.

Thestudydidnottakeintoaccounttheeffectthatincreasedproductionofbiofuelsmighthaveonwateruse,pollutionandfoodprices,allofwhichraise
additionalconcernsaboutthemeritsofpromotingbiofuels,accordingtoJaeger.

ThestudyiscalledBiofuelEconomicsinaSettingofMultipleObjectivesandUnintendedConsequencesandwaspublishedinRenewableand
SustainableEnergyReviews.

StorySource:

MaterialsprovidedbyOregonStateUniversity.Note:Contentmaybeeditedforstyleandlength.

JournalReference:

1. WilliamK.Jaeger,ThorstenM.Egelkraut.Biofueleconomicsinasettingofmultipleobjectivesandunintendedconsequences.Renewable
andSustainableEnergyReviews,201115(9):4320DOI:10.1016/j.rser.2011.07.118

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OregonStateUniversity."Costeffectivenessofbiofuelsandtheirabilitytocutfossilfuelusequestioned."ScienceDaily.ScienceDaily,29November
2011.<www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/11/111129123255.htm>.

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