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2017.03.24 CD Battleground Poll Memo
2017.03.24 CD Battleground Poll Memo
2017.03.24 CD Battleground Poll Memo
The survey finds that information about the Republicans plan to repeal
and replace the Affordable Care Actcombined with voters knowing their
Republican member of Congress supports the planresults in a net 13-
point swing away from the Republicans in the vote for Congress, including
substantial movement in districts President Trump carried in November.
Key Findings
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Additionally, the more voters learn about the Republican health care plan,
the less they like it. Among those who report having heard a lot about the
proposal, views are 39% favorable and 57% unfavorable (including 47% who
are very unfavorable). Among those who have heard less, 49% describe
themselves as favorable while 35% are unfavorable (but only 14% are very
favorable).
At the outset of the poll, voters are inclined to re-elect their incumbent over
a generic Democratic challenger, but only by 44% to 38%with these
Republicans notably under the 50% mark. With no information given, Trump
districts vote for the Republican by 9 points (43% to 34%) with almost 1 in 4
(23%) saying they are not sure, while Clinton districts begin at a near dead
heat (43% Republican, 42% Democrat).
However, on both approval and the trial heat for Congress, there is potential
for real, substantial movement toward the Democratsincluding in districts
Trump won in November. After hearing a positive argument in favor of the
GOP plan, information about its provisions and consequences, and messages
against their own incumbent for supporting it, we are able to really move the
needle in a way that is rarely driven by a single issue, as it is in this case.
Overall, voters move from approving of their congressperson by 12 points
(46% approve, 34% disapprove) to disapproving by 21 points (35% approve,
56% disapprove)a net shift of 33 percentage points. This includes a net
shift of 31 points across the Clinton districts (47% approve, 36% disapprove
to 37% approve, 57% disapprove) as well as a notable 36-point shift across
the Trump districts (44% approve, 32% disapprove to 32% approve, 56%
disapprove).
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And movement on the actual vote for Congress is substantial as well,
including a net 13-point shift away from the Republicans among voters
overall, and impressive movement among key subgroups:
The top-testing message against the GOP proposal (as drafted at the time of
fielding) is that it allows insurance companies to charge people over age fifty
five times more than younger people for their carewith 61% of voters
saying this raises very big concerns for them. This is the top-testing
message among key target groups, garnering very big concerns among
75% of those who move on their vote, 66% of independents, 53% of
Obama-Trump voters, and 69% of white non-college women. However, an
argument that the plan gives tax cuts to the top two-percent and tax breaks
to health insurance companies while raising costs for average Americans also
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tests very strongly at 54% very big concerns, as do items around cutting
Medicaid/slashing nursing home funding (51% very big concerns) and taking
insurance away from more than 24 million people (51% very big concerns).
After hearing several provisions of the plan such as theseall of which are
broadly unpopularvoters were asked in an open-ended fashion what their
biggest concerns were now that they knew more about the plan. Their
answers are loud and clear: it will make insurance coverage too costly or
unaffordable (20% volunteer this), and it will lead to millions losing their
coverage and putting their health at risk (19% volunteer this). Whats more,
a combined 14% mention that the plan will give tax breaks to the rich (7%)
but hurt the middle class or poor (7%), and 7% mention hurting the elderly.
And by 29% to 50%, they tell us that knowing their own congressperson
supports this plan makes them less favorable toward him or her.
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