MarutiSuzuki

Healthyrealisationsprovideoperatingboost;BUY

April26,2016 MarutiSuzukis (MSILs) performance in Q4FY16 was good duetohigherthan

expectedrealisationsprovidingaQoQboosttotheEBITDAmargin.Thisalsoled

Q4FY16ResultUpdate
RohanKorde to a strong operating performance as the reported EBITDA beat expectations.
rohankorde@plindia.com However, due to lower nonoperating income, coupled with a higherthan
+912266322235 expected income tax provision, there was a YoY profit decline of 11.7% to
Rs11.3bn.

WhileMSILssalesvolumegrowthwasmutedat4%YoYto360,402units,sales

were impacted to the tune of ~10,000 units due to the reservation agitation.
However, the realization increase of 8.2% YoY (up 5% QoQ), was higherthan
Rating BUY
expected,whichhelpedMSILreportrevenuegrowthof12.3%YoYtoRs153.1bn.
Price Rs3,872
Gross margin improvement was 170bps YoY due to material cost reduction
TargetPrice Rs4,437
initiatives and better product mix, which was setoff by an increase in other
ImpliedUpside 14.6%
expenditure/sales (by 190bps YoY). Other expenditure was higher due to an
Sensex 26,007
increase in adspend and the impact of forex on royalty. Resultantly, EBITDA
Nifty 7,963
margin was 15.4% (lower 50bps YoY), which was higher 90bps QoQ. However,
(PricesasonApril26,2016) duetohigherthanexpectedrevenuegrowth,reportedEBITDAatRs23.5bnwas
higherthanourestimateofRs22.7bn.
Tradingdata
MarketCap.(Rsbn) 1,169.5
We remain positive on MSIL on expectations of market share gains, a healthy
Shareso/s(m) 302.1
product portfolio and the opportunity to reap benefits from recent launches
3MAvg.Dailyvalue(Rsm) 4033.1
whichhavebeenwellreceived.Arecoveryineconomicgrowth,salesprospects
Majorshareholders
fromnewmodelsoverseasandincrementaldemandfromhikeinpublicsector
Promoters 56.21%
wagesprovideapositiveoutlookahead.
Foreign 23.95% WeexpectrevenueCAGRof17.4%overFY1618e,withanadjustedprofitCAGR
DomesticInst. 13.14% of 25.7% and EBITDA margin decline of 40bps to 15.2%. The stock is currently
Public&Other 6.70% tradingat19xFY17eEPS.OurtargetpriceisRs4,437basedupon20xSep17e.At
StockPerformance ourpricetarget,MSILwouldtradeatacashPE14.7xFY17e(currentlytradesat
(%) 1M 6M 12M 12.8x).WemaintainBUY.
Absolute 3.6 (11.7) 9.3
Keyfinancials(Y/eMarch) 2015 2016 2017E 2018E
Relative 1.0 (6.8) 14.5
Revenues(Rsm) 498,254 577,463 689,052 795,701
HowwedifferfromConsensus
Growth(%) 13.6 15.9 19.3 15.5
EPS(Rs) PL Cons. %Diff.
EBITDA(Rsm) 64,986 90,015 106,936 121,208
2017 203.6 199.8 1.9 37,112
PAT(Rsm) 45,875 61,499 72,526
2018 240.1 243.1 1.3
EPS(Rs) 122.9 151.9 203.6 240.1
Growth(%) 28.3 23.6 34.1 17.9
PricePerformance(RIC:MRTI.BO,BB:MSILIN) NetDPS(Rs) 25.0 35.0 45.0 50.0
(Rs)
5,000 Profitability&Valuation 2015 2016 2017E 2018E
4,000 EBITDAmargin(%) 13.0 15.6 15.5 15.2
3,000 RoE(%) 16.6 18.1 20.9 20.9
RoCE(%) 16.3 18.2 21.0 21.0
2,000
EV/sales(x) 2.4 2.0 1.7 1.5
1,000
EV/EBITDA(x) 18.0 13.0 10.9 9.6
0 PE(x) 31.5 25.5 19.0 16.1
Dec15
Jun15

Oct15
Apr15

Feb16
Aug15

P/BV(x) 4.9 4.3 3.7 3.1

Netdividendyield(%) 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.3

Source:Bloomberg Source:CompanyData;PLResearch

PrabhudasLilladherPvt.Ltd.and/oritsassociates(the'Firm')doesand/orseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresultinvestorsshouldbeawarethat

theFirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthereport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.
Pleaserefertoimportantdisclosuresanddisclaimersattheendofthereport
 MarutiSuzuki

In Q4FY16, MSILs volumes grew 4% YoY to 360,402 units. These were lower
QoQassaleswereimpactedby~10,000unitsduetoreservationagitation.

Salesrealisationgrewby8.2%YoY,resultinginnetsalesgrowthof12.5%YoY.
Otheroperatingincomewashigher6.8%YoYand19.7%QoQtoRs3.8bn.Asa
result,totalincomeincreased12.3%YoYtoRs153.1bn.

EBITDAmarginwas15.4%,whichwasasperexpectation(higher90bpsQoQand
lower 50bps YoY). EBITDA grew 8.6% YoY to Rs23.5bn. Due to higherthan
expected revenue growth, reported EBITDA at Rs23.5bn was higher than our
estimateofRs22.7bn.

Gross margin improvement was 170bps YoY and 250bps QoQ, which on a YoY
basis was mainly compensated by an increase in other expenditure/sales (by
190bps).

Gross margin improvement was driven by material cost reduction initiatives.

Other expenses were higher due to higher adspend and impact of forex on
royalty.

Lowerthanexpected nonoperating income and a higherthanexpected tax

rateledtothereportedprofitcominginatRs11.3bn(expRs12.1bn),whichwas
adeclineof11.7%YoY.

Conferencecallhighlights
Blended discounts were lower by ~Rs4,000 QoQ due to new launches and an
increaseinreach.Discountspervehiclewere~Rs21,997inQ3FY16,Rs19,500in
Q2FY16andRs16,088inQ1.AveragediscountinFY15wasRs19,464/vehicle.

CapexforFY17hasbeenpeggedatRs44bntobespentonnewmodellaunches,
R&D,marketinginfrastructure(excludingNEXA)andnormalmaintenancecapex.
~40%wouldbespentontheproduct.

ExportswillseeanadverseimpactduetodutyhikeinSriLanka.Managementis
expectingBalenoexportstomakeupforthisshortfall,butthenetimpactwould
beflattishexportsYoYinFY17.

Impactofadversecurrencymovementwas~100bpsQoQontheEBITDAmargin.

Productioncapacityincreasewouldbeachievedwithshorttermmeasures,like
additionofshiftandtemporarylinesinFY17.

ProductioncapacityfortheBalenois~10,000units/month.MSILisplanningto
increasethisfurtherinthefuture.

Sales from rural regions constituted 35% of total in Fy16. The growth rate for
salesinruralregionswas22%inFY15,whichdeclinedto9%inFY16.

Vitara Brezza is the first model where MSIL is paying royalty denominated in
rupee terms. The royalty rate is also lower since the product has been jointly
developedbyMSILandSuzuki.

April26,2016 2
 MarutiSuzuki

Exhibit1: Q2FY16ResultOverview(Rsm)
Y/eMarch Q4FY16 Q4FY15 YoYgr.(%) Q3FY16 FY16 FY15 YoYgr.(%)
NetRevenues 153,057 136,248 12.3 150,819 577,462 499,325 15.6
RawMaterials 100,950 92,228 9.5 103,277 387,799 350,080 10.8
%ofNetSales 66.0 67.7 68.5 67.2 70.1
Personnel 6,030 5,082 18.7 4,815 19,656 16,066 22.3
%ofNetSales 3.9 3.7 3.2 3.4 3.2
Manufacturing&OtherExp 22,577 17,296 30.5 20,796 79,992 66,536 20.2
%ofNetSales 14.8 12.7 13.8 13.9 13.3
TotalExpenditure 129,557 114,606 13.0 128,888 487,447 432,681 12.7
EBITDA 23,500 21,643 8.6 21,931 90,016 66,644 35.1
EBITDAMargin(%) 15.4 15.9 14.5 15.6 13.3
Depreciation 7,608 6,600 15.3 7,221 28,239 24,703 14.3
EBIT 15,892 15,043 5.6 14,710 61,776 41,940 47.3
InterestExpenses 203 1,027 (80.2) 244 815 2,060 (60.4)
Nonoperatingincome 1,212 3,199 (62.1) 315 4,619 8,802 (47.5)
PBT 16,901 17,215 (1.8) 14,551 65,350 48,682 34.2
TaxTotal 5,565 4,373 27.3 4,358 19,636 11,570 69.7
TaxRate(%)Total 32.9 25.4 29.6 29.9 30.0 23.8 26.4
ReportedPAT 11,336 12,842 (11.7) 10,193 45,714 37,112 23.2
Adj.PAT 11,336 12,842 (11.7) 10,354 45,875 37,112 23.6

Source:CompanyData,PLResearch

Exhibit2: OperatingMetrics(Rsm)
Y/eMarch Q4FY16 Q4FY15 YoYgr.(%) Q3FY16 FY16 FY15 YoYgr.(%)
CarSalesVolume(nos) 360,402 346,700 4.0 374,182 1,429,248 1,292,403 10.6
NetRealisation/Vehicle 424,684 392,986 8.1 403,063 404,032 386,354 4.6
Materialcost/vehicle 280,104 266,015 5.3 276,007 271,331 270,875 0.2
GrossProfit/vehicle 144,580 126,971 13.9 127,056 132,701 115,479 14.9
Employeecost/vehicle 16,731 14,658 14.1 12,868 13,753 12,431 10.6
Otherexpenses/vehicle 62,644 49,888 25.6 55,577 55,968 51,482 8.7
EBITDA/vehicle 65,205 62,425 4.5 58,611 62,981 51,566 22.1
NetProfit/vehicle 31,454 37,042 (15.1) 27,671 32,097 28,716 11.8

Source:CompanyData,PLResearch

April26,2016 3
 MarutiSuzuki

IncomeStatement(Rsm) BalanceSheetAbstract(Rsm)
Y/eMarch 2015 2016
2017E 2018E Y/eMarch 2015 2016 2017E 2018E
NetRevenue 498,254 577,463
689,052 795,701 Shareholder'sFunds 237,042 270,071 317,977 375,399
RawMaterialExpenses 350,771 387,800 465,110 541,076 TotalDebt 1,802 774 724 674
GrossProfit 147,483 189,663 223,942 254,624 OtherLiabilities 4,810 4,741 4,741 4,741
EmployeeCost 16,066 19,657 22,606 25,996 TotalLiabilities 243,654 275,586 323,442 380,814
OtherExpenses 66,431 79,991 94,400 107,420 NetFixedAssets 141,421 137,747 148,011 156,240
EBITDA 64,986 90,015 106,936 121,208 Goodwill
Depr.&Amortization 24,703 28,239 29,736 31,771 Investments 128,140 177,857 217,857 267,857
NetInterest 283 289 458 158 NetCurrentAssets (22,553) (40,018) (42,426) (43,283)
OtherIncome 9,768 4,849 6,548 8,043 Cash&Equivalents 183 391 2,308 5,902
ProfitbeforeTax 48,682 65,810 83,107 96,702 OtherCurrentAssets 65,766 75,961 92,288 105,054
TotalTax 11,570 19,636 21,608 24,175 CurrentLiabilities 88,502 116,370 137,023 154,239
ProfitafterTax 37,112 46,174 61,499 72,526 OtherAssets
ExOditems/Min.Int. TotalAssets 247,008 275,586 323,442 380,814
Adj.PAT 37,112 45,875 61,499 72,526
Avg.SharesO/S(m) 302.1 302.1 302.1 302.1
EPS(Rs.) 122.9 151.9 203.6 240.1

CashFlowAbstract(Rsm) QuarterlyFinancials(Rsm)
Y/eMarch 2015 2016 2017E 2018E Y/eMarch Q1FY16 Q2FY16 Q3FY16 Q4FY16
C/FfromOperations 77,846 92,372 96,202 109,526 NetRevenue 134,249 139,337 150,819 153,057
C/FfromInvesting (58,967) (74,282) (80,000) (90,000) EBITDA 21,891 22,694 21,931 23,500
C/FfromFinancing (24,993) (17,882) (14,285) (15,932) %ofrevenue 16.3 16.3 14.5 15.4
Inc./Dec.inCash (6,114) 208 1,917 3,593 Depr.&Amortization 6,716 6,694 7,221 7,608
OpeningCash 6,298 183 391 2,308 NetInterest 190 178 244 203
ClosingCash 183 391 2,308 5,902 OtherIncome 1,720 1,371 315 1,212
FCFF 39,243 63,394 55,561 68,747 ProfitbeforeTax 16,705 17,193 14,551 16,901
FCFE 22,806 62,366 55,511 68,697 TotalTax 4,776 4,937 4,358 5,565
ProfitafterTax 11,929 12,256 10,193 11,336
Adj.PAT 11,929 12,256 10,193 11,336

KeyFinancialMetrics KeyOperatingMetrics
Y/eMarch 2015 2016 2017E 2018E Y/eMarch 2015 2016 2017E 2018E
Growth Totalvolumes(units) 1,292,403 1,429,201 1,612,318 1,802,541
Revenue(%) 13.6 15.9 19.3 15.5 Realisationperunit(Rs) 376,086 394,279 416,978 430,653
EBITDA(%) 24.9 38.5 18.8 13.3 Grossmarginperunit(Rs) 114,115 132,705 138,894 141,259
PAT(%) 28.3 23.6 34.1 17.9 EBITDAperunit(Rs) 50,283 62,983 66,324 67,243
EPS(%) 28.3 23.6 34.1 17.9 Profitperunit(Rs) 28,715 32,098 38,143 40,236
Profitability Source:CompanyData,PLResearch.

EBITDAMargin(%) 13.0 15.6 15.5 15.2
PATMargin(%) 7.4 7.9 8.9 9.1
RoCE(%) 16.3 18.2 21.0 21.0
RoE(%) 16.6 18.1 20.9 20.9
BalanceSheet
NetDebt:Equity
NetWrkngCap.(days) (23) (28) (27) (27)
Valuation
PER(x) 31.5 25.5 19.0 16.1
P/B(x) 4.9 4.3 3.7 3.1
EV/EBITDA(x) 18.0 13.0 10.9 9.6
EV/Sales(x) 2.4 2.0 1.7 1.5
EarningsQuality
Eff.TaxRate 23.8 30.0 26.0 25.0
OtherInc/PBT 20.1 7.0 7.9 8.3
Eff.Depr.Rate(%) 9.3 9.6 8.9 8.5
FCFE/PAT 61.5 135.9 90.3 94.7
Source:CompanyData,PLResearch.

April26,2016 4
 MarutiSuzuki

PrabhudasLilladherPvt.Ltd.
3rdFloor,SadhanaHouse,570,P.B.Marg,Worli,Mumbai400018,India

Tel:(9122)66322222Fax:(9122)66322209
RatingDistributionofResearchCoverage PLsRecommendationNomenclature

50% 46.4% BUY : Over15%OutperformancetoSensexover12months

40.2% Accumulate : OutperformancetoSensexover12months
40%
%ofTotalCoverage

Reduce : UnderperformancetoSensexover12months
30% Sell : Over15%underperformancetoSensexover12months
20% 13.4% TradingBuy : Over10%absoluteupsidein1month

10% TradingSell : Over10%absolutedeclinein1month

0.0% NotRated(NR) : Nospecificcallonthestock
0%
BUY Accumulate Reduce Sell UnderReview(UR) : Ratinglikelytochangeshortly

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RADHAKRISHNA
Digitally signed by RADHAKRISHNAN SREESANKAR

April26,2016 DN: c=IN, o=Personal, cn=RADHAKRISHNAN

SREESANKAR,
serialNumber=8859da2df03122989b585ad520865a4f59
5
N SREESANKAR be69fbc1b7ba2c5315941f987f41de,
postalCode=400104, st=MAHARASHTRA
Date: 2016.04.26 20:19:49 +05'30'