How to Find and Read an MM5 Sounding Chart!

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/
By Matt Amend
For the NWPC & CBCC
Rev. Date Mar. 26, 2006

The topics covered in this guide are:

What is the MM5?

How to find the sounding data

for a particular site (e.g. Tiger).

Finding the most recent data and

the forecast time you want.

How to read the sounding chart

to find winds aloft, lapse rate, any
inversions, and chance of
clouds/rain.

What is the MM5?

It's a supercomputer run by the UW

Dept of Atmospheric Science which
models the atmosphere of the Pacific
Northwest. It predicts pressure,
temperature, wind velocity, and
precipitation from sea-level to high
altitude. The MM5 model divides the
atmosphere up into grids, called
Domains, of 36km, 12km, and 4km
resolution. The 4km Domain covers
Washington, Oregon, and western
Idaho. Its information is not necessarily
more accurate than any other forecast
you can find, but it is more specific
and detailed. It’s great for predicting
flying conditions at a particular site.

The directions below the screen shot indicate

how to navigate the MM5 website. In this example we’re going to Go to the MM5 homepage.
find the sounding chart closest Under “MM5-GFS” click on the
to Tiger Mountain for 1 p.m. PST link for the 4km Domain.
How to find the sounding data for a particular site.
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/rt/gfsinit.4km.html
Now we’ve opened the page for the
4km domain (it is actually a table at the
bottom of a long page that has the 36-
km and 12-km data tables above). As
you can see, the MM5 offers huge
amounts of data, but the most useful
product for us is the “soundings” data.
Why is that?

A sounding is an observation of the

atmosphere above a specific location
that measures temperature, pressure,
humidity, and wind velocity (direction
and speed).

We can use this to predict winds aloft,

potential for thermal activity (lapse
rate), inversion, cloud formation, and
precipitation.

Because the MM5 provides forecasts

for 3-hour intervals (”Forecast hour”,
more on that later), we can use it to
predict the best time of day to fly, and
what to expect as the day progresses.

But before we begin reading sounding

charts, first we have to find them! The
MM5 site isn’t exactly intuitive, but
finding the soundings link is fairly
straight-forward.

The link indicated on the graphic will take

you to the soundings map for the 4km domain.

On the left-side frame, scroll down until you see “Soundings”

underneath “Display all Hours”. Click on “4 km”.
How to find the sounding data for a particular site
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/rt/soundings_d2.cgi?GFS+current_gfs
The primary 4km domain map shows
all the sounding locations for
Washington, Oregon, Idaho, western
Montana and southern BC.

Recently the UW added enhanced maps

of western Washington (Map Option
2) and the Columbia Gorge (Map
Option 3).

The MM5 is a great tool for planning

a weekend trip. You can analyze
forecasts for every site within driving
distance of Puget Sound: Tiger,
Blanchard, Whidbey, Rampart, Chelan,
the Ranch, the Methow, Saddle, the
Gorge, Oregon’s north coast, Woodrat,
Pine, Bachelor, you name it.

Once you’ve picked a site, the sounding

chart can help you predict when to be
on launch and, for XC, cloudbase
height and what route to fly.

The link on the screenshot will take you to

information specific to Tiger.

Now you are looking at a map of the 4km To find the chart for
Domain. Each dot represents a place Tiger, open the detailed
where sounding forecasts are available. map of Puget Sound.
How to find the sounding data for Tiger
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/rt/soundings_d2.cgi?GFS+current_gfs+ps
When you place your cursor over a dot,
the name and coordinates of the
location will appear. The closest
sounding location to Tiger is Lake
Sammammish. It is the middle of three
blue dots just to the right of Lake
Washington.

The blue dot to its right is North Bend,

and the red dot further on is Stampede
Pass. Check these if you want to get
a good sense of what the winds in the
Pass will be doing.

One more click, and you will be looking

at a sounding chart...

NOTE: If you click on the dot and a

page appears that says “Sounding data
not yet available”, this means that the
computer has not finished processing
the newest observation data to calculate
new predictions (a “Run”).

You can click the link that says ps07: Lake Sammammish, WA 47.55N, 122.03W
“Soundings from other runs” to call
up data from a previous Run. More
on that later...

Locate the dot for Lake When you place your cursor over a
Sammammish and click on it. dot, a label will pop-up with the location
name and coordinates.
Finding the most recent data and forecast time
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/rt/showsounding_d2.cgi?initmodel=GFS&yyyymmddhh=current_gfs&reqhr=12&loc=ps07&locname=Lake%20Sammamish,WA&latlon=47.55N,122.03W

Now that we’ve found the sounding

data for Tiger, we need to select the
chart for a particular time of day.
Beware: this is the only thing more
confusing than the chart itself !

What is a "Run"?

At 12 hour intervals, raw data from

meteorological observations is fed into
the MM5 and a new "Run" is initialized.
These runs are based on Universal
Time (UTC) and are begun at 1200
UTC (4am PST) and 0000 UTC (4pm
PST).

Each run generates forecasts in 3-hour

increments, predicting atmospheric
conditions up to 72 hours in the future.
So, if the 1200 UTC Run begins at
4am PST, the 1pm forecast is +9 hours
(2100 UTC).

Climate modeling takes time, even for

a supercomputer, so sometimes when
you click on the link for the most recent
Run it will say “Sounding data not yet
available”. In this case you can look
up data from a previous Run.

The 0000UTC Run from the previous

day would be +21 hours to show the
1pm PST forecast.

Clear as mud? If you aren’t sure you

can look at the top of the sounding
chart. The forecast hour and time are
displayed (shown in the red ellipse).

If I can figure this out, you can.

We’ve called up the chart for the right This chart is for 1pm PST.
location, now we have to get the chart To look at the forecast for
for the time of day when we’ll be flying. 4pm, click on the 12.
 http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/rt/showsounding_d3.cgi?initmodel=GFS&yyyymmddhh=2005020712&reqhr=9&loc=ps07&locname=Lake%20Sammamish%2CWA&latlon=47.55N,122.03W
Reading the Sounding Chart.
At last, we have arrived! Now
what do all these squiggles
mean? The chart in this
example is from last year but it
shows many features.
The horizontal axis is
temperature, and the vertical
axis is altitude. Altitude is
expressed in pressure rather
than feet, but we can estimate.
1000mb is around sea level
900mb is around 3,000’
800mb is around 6,000’
700mb is around 10,000’
So for our purposes we are
really only looking at the
bottom half of the chart,
although high clouds can block
the sun and shut down thermal
activity.
Will there be thermals?
The red line is air temperature.
The more it leans to the left
the stronger the lapse rate. It’s
the best indicator for potential
ther mal activity. If the
temperature line parallels the
nearest DALR line* (see the
Geek stuff) that means that
thermals will rise along that line.
If the red line kinks back to a
more vertical slope, that
indicates an inversion. The
more it slopes to the right the
s t r o n g e r t h e i nve r s i o n
(temperature increasing with
altitude) and less potential for
thermals to rise.
Geek stuff:
Cloudbase? Fat cumies?
The blue line is the dewpoint
temperature. Whenever it
comes close to the red line, that
indicates possible cloud
formation. If the lines touch
that usually signals rain.
To determine whether cumulus
clouds are likely at the chosen
forecast hour, start at the
bottom of the dewpoint
High cirrus clouds, may block the sun forecast line (blue) and draw a
line upwards parallel to the
nearest saturation line (purple)
until it intersects the
temperature forecast line (red).
If there is no inversion below
the intersection, then there is a
potential for cumulus clouds to
form, with cloud base at the
altitude of the intersection.
~10,000’
Winds Aloft?
The funky feather thingies on
Potential cumulus formation, the right are wind barbs. They
show wind direction and speed
~6,000’ loudbase above 6,000’ in knots. The barbs are at the
back and show speed:
A long barb is 10 kts
A short barb is 5kts.
~3,000’ Thus, one long and one short
_ Mild inversion is 15 kts.
The chart shows high-level
~Sea Level winds NW at 25-35 kts, turning
west and decreasing to 5-10 kts
at mid-level, and becoming light
& variable close to the ground.
Special thanks to Steve Roti
* The red squiggly line is the temperature forecast.
* The blue squiggly line is the dewpoint forecast.
* The green lines are the dry adiabatic lapse rate (DALR) lines.
* The red dashed lines are the moist adiabatic lapse rate (MALR) lines.
* The purple lines are the saturation lines.
 Why Saturday, March 25 was good but not great
I’ve included the 4pm Lake Sammammish chart
from Saturday to use an example that is fresh
in many pilots’ minds.

Remember how the day overdeveloped,

meaning there was so much cumulus formation
that the sun was often blocked? But if there
was a few minutes of sunlight on the ground,
booming thermals erupted all over the place?
And the wind was strong enough that
somebody got blown over the back (a gray
paraglider, you know who you are)? And the
low cloudbase?

Well, the chart tells the story.. First, notice that

there’s a strong lapse rate and no inversion on
the temperature line. That meant instability,
lots of convective potential. Next, see how
the dew point line followed the temperature
line very closely? That explains the prodigious
cloud formation. But the lines never touch,
hence the lack of rain. Cloudbase was relatively
low for springtime, around 4,000 feet. The air
mass was pretty cold: if you got much above
3,000’ you were above the freezing level.

The wind barbs show an almost constant

direction at our flying altitudes, explaining the
general lack of turbulence. But windspeeds of
10-15 knots (12-18 mph) went all the way down
to the deck, so factor in the Tiger venturi effect
and you get the strong winds we saw in the ~6,000’
afternoon.

So... a savvy pilot reading this chart the night Cloudbase ~4,000’
before would have been able to predict what
happened: too much shade and too low a ~3,000’
cloudbase for good XC conditions, but a darn
good day for flying around Tiger with your
friends!
~Sea Level

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/rt/showsounding_d3.cgi?initmodel=GFS&yyyymmddhh=2006032512&reqhr=12&loc=ps07&locname=Lake%20Sammamish,WA&latlon=47.55N,122.03W