December 30, 2016

Research Entity Pakistan - 028

www.jamapunji.pk

Farewell 2016 - KSE100: 5th Best

Market Data
Current Close 47,806.97 Global Market
Previous Close 47,666.66
+/- (Points) 140.31 As year 2016 winds down, we thought wed take you down the memory
+/- (%) 0.29 lane and revisit some key events and stories of 2016.
Volume (mn) 387.30
Adv/Dec 190/203
An eventful year just closed not just for Pakistan but for global markets
alike where shocks like Brexit and surprises such as US Presidential
Source: PSX
elections outcome kept investors on their toes. Here in Pakistan, we
celebrated decision by MSCI to upgrade Pakistan to Emerging
Markets, while Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) 40% stake sale deal
was another landmark event where Chinese Consortium including
China Financial Futures Exchange Company Limited, Shanghai Stock
Exchange and Shen zhen Stock Exchange won the bid.

A Broad Recap:

The year started out rough for PSX as declining global crude, losses in
regional markets and more importantly rumors over broker investigation
and regulatory changes pulled benchmark KSE100 index to break key
30,000 le vel. Thankfully, however, strong earnings growth, significant
improvement in Macros and optimism over MSCI reclassification review
guided market to a steady upward ride.

MSCI announcement during May opened a new era of good feelings as

market shrugged aside Political noise (Protests/lock down threats and
Yesterdays Settled Trades Panama allegations against First Family), Geo-Political concerns
Symbol Traded Vol (mn) Settled Vol (mn) (India-Pakistan border tensions) and jitters in global markets emanating
DSL 40.25 27.83 from Brexit. Most interestingly, excitement over MSCI upgrade (coupled
BOP 37.98 18.88
with local tax regulation changes for Real Estate investors) helped
channel fresh local liquidity that absorbed FII selling which nearly
KEL 32.43 27.04
eclipsed largest foreign outflow dating back 2008 market crash with the
FCCL 22.54 15.46 year closing at record high over 47,800 (USD return +46.3%, PKR
DCL 20.26 11.68 return +45.7%).
Source: NCCPL (29-December-16)
PSX stake sale deal was an icing on the cake with new strategic
investors that will now manage the exchange are expected to introduce
Yesterdays Foreign Flows USD (mn) new products (derivatives, cross listings etc) along with better
Gross Buy 15.55 technologies for risk management. We remain very optimistic on this
transition and expect a significant increase in investor base and market
Gross Sell 23.47 liquidity in the year 2017 as it will likely support our view of a market re-
Net (7.92) rating and improved price discovery.
Source: NCCPL (29-December -16)

Sales Team
Karachi: (92-21) 3569 4666
Lahore: (92-42) 571 7953
Islamabad: (92-51) 2272 341-5

The report has been prepared by Elixir Securities Pakistan (Pvt.) Ltd. (Elixir Pakistan) The information and opinions contained herein has been compiled or arrived at based upon information obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good
faith. Such information has not been independently verified and no guaranty, representation or warranty, express or implied is made as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. All such information and opinions are subject to change without
notice. This document is for information purposes only, descriptions of any company or companies or their securities mentioned herein are not intended to be complete and this document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer, or
solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. Elixir Pakistan may, to the extent permissible by applicable law or regulation, use the above material, conclusions, research or analysis in which they are based before
the material is disseminated to their customers. Not all customers will receive the material at the same time. Elixir Pakistan, their respective directors, officers, representatives, employees and/or related persons may have a long or short position in
any of the securities or other financial instruments mentioned or issuers described herein at any time and may make a purchase and/or sale, or offer to make a purchase and/or sale of any such securities or other financial instruments from time to
time in the open market or otherwise. Elixir Pakistan may make markets in securities or other financial instruments described in this publication, in securities of issuers described herein or in securities underlying or related to such securities. Elixir
Pakistan may have recently underwritten the securities of an issuer mentioned herein. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published for any purposes.
Foreign currency denominated securities are subject to exchange rate fluctuations which could have an adverse effect on their value or price, or the income derived from them. In addition, investors in securities such as ADRs, the values of which are
influenced by foreign currencies effectively assume currency risk.
Note to U.K. readers: This report is not for distribution in the United Kingdom to private customers, and investments mentioned in this report will not be available to any such private customer.
Copyright 2016, Elixir Securities Pakistan (Pvt.) Ltd.

Disclosures
Please refer to the important disclosures at the back of this report.
June 20, 2016

Worth noting for 2016:

Market Cap up by 40% to ~USD97bn beating MSCI EM that was up 8.1%

and MSCI FM that was down 1.9%
Average Daily Turnover in 2016 was roughly the same as last year at
~USD110mn
Average Daily Traded Volume was higher by 13% to 278mn shares
FII selling of over USD340mn with E&Ps (35% of total outflow) taking the
biggest hit followed by Fertilizers (24% of total outflow)
FII participation increased to 8.8% vs 7.5% last year
Key sectors performance based on Market Capitalization: Autos 69%,
Cements 66%, OMCs +60%, E&Ps +54%, Textiles +55%, Pharmas +37%,
Banks +31%
Three Notable Deals closed by Foreign Investors:
1. K-Electric - Shangai Electric Power (USD1.8bn)
2. Engro Foods - FrieslandCampina (USD450mn)
3. Dawlance - Arcelik (USD258mn)

We would like to wish you a Happy New Year 2017.

Faisal Bilwani
T +92 21 35693919, E: fbilwani@elixirsec.com

Ali Raza
T +92 21 35694695, E: aliraza@elixirsec.com

Disclosures
Please refer to the important disclosures at the back of this report.
2