AOS E(MW-h) MD(KW) tarifa(US$/MWh)

1 1987 28.7 726 41.5

2 1988 27.16 744 29.3
3 1989 26.12 756 24
4 1990 29.17 828 49
5 1991 32.66 892 47.1
6 1992 33.99 915 64.3
7 1993 36.14 904 35.9
8 1994 33.91 918 76.1
9 1995 33.53 936 84
10 1996 32.42 948 86
11 1997 34.68 1066 82
12 1998 33.15 1083 71
13 1999 40.98 1295 68
14 2000 49.05 1584 72
15 2001 59.69 1946 69
16 2002 66.22 1888 66
17 2003 71.77 1917 66
18 2004 75.91 2020 70
19 2005 79.7 2105 76
20 2006 78.3 2237 75
21 2007 86.93 2300 74
22 2008 83.48 2336 74
23 2009 93.43 2347
24 2010
25 2011
26 2012
27 2013
28 2014
29 2015
PBI depar(MMs/) PBI nacio(MMs/) poblacion fc
24.80 110.20 30.419 0.451
22.40 99.80 30.614 0.417
23.60 86.40 30.810 0.394
20.80 82.00 31.005 0.402
21.70 83.80 31.201 0.418
21.90 83.40 31.396 0.424
22.40 87.40 31.592 0.456
26.10 98.60 31.787 0.422
28.90 107.10 31.983 0.409
29.30 109.80 32.178 0.390
29.80 117.30 32.374 0.371
29.60 116.50 32.569 0.349
31.30 117.60 32.765 0.361
31.80 121.10 32.886 0.353
32.30 121.30 33.174 0.350
33.90 127.40 33.421 0.400
35.30 132.50 33.640 0.427
33.70 139.10 33.847 0.429
36.40 148.60 34.041 0.432
38.40 160.10 34.221 0.400
42.50 174.40 34.383 0.431
46.00 191.50 34.529 0.408
193.20 34.667 0.454
34.798
34.928
35.046
35.157
35.261
35.360
 Chart Title
250

200

150

100

50

0
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

energi a ta ri fa PBI depa rta menta l PBI na ciona l pobla ci n

 AOS E(MW-h) tarifa(US$/MWh)
1 1987 28.7 41.5
2 1988 27.16 29.3
3 1989 26.12 24
4 1990 29.17 49
5 1991 32.66 47.1
6 1992 33.99 64.3
7 1993 36.14 35.9
8 1994 33.91 76.1
9 1995 33.53 84
10 1996 32.42 86
11 1997 34.68 82
12 1998 33.15 71
13 1999 40.98 68
14 2000 49.05 72
15 2001 59.69 69
16 2002 66.22 66
17 2003 71.77 66
18 2004 75.91 70
19 2005 79.7 76
20 2006 78.3 75
21 2007 86.93 74
22 2008 83.48 74
23 2009 93.43
PBI depar(MMs/) PBI nacio(MMs/) poblacion
24.80 110.20 30.419
22.40 99.80 30.614
23.60 86.40 30.810
20.80 82.00 31.005
21.70 83.80 31.201
21.90 83.40 31.396
22.40 87.40 31.592
26.10 98.60 31.787
28.90 107.10 31.983
29.30 109.80 32.178
29.80 117.30 32.374
29.60 116.50 32.569
31.30 117.60 32.765
31.80 121.10 32.886
32.30 121.30 33.174
33.90 127.40 33.421
35.30 132.50 33.640
33.70 139.10 33.847
36.40 148.60 34.041
38.40 160.10 34.221
42.50 174.40 34.383
46.00 191.50 34.529
193.20 34.667
 AOS E(GW-h) METODO MINIMOS CUADRADOS
1 1987 28.7
2 1988 27.16 CURVA DE REGRESION LINEAL
3 1989 26.12
A=(
4 1990 29.17 A=
5 1991 32.66
)/
6 1992 33.99 (^
7 1993 36.14
()^ ) B=
33.91
8 1994
B=( ^
9 1995 33.53
10 1996 32.42
)/
11 1997 34.68 (^
ENTONCES
12 1998 33.15 ()^ )
13 1999 40.98 CURVA DE REGRESION(lineal)
14 2000 49.05
ENERGA Li near (ENERGA)
15 2001 59.69
100
16 2002 66.22
17 2003 71.77 90

18 2004 75.91 80 f(x) = 3.1835869565x - 6310.0636956524

R = 0.8757469569
19 2005 79.7 70
20 2006 78.3
ENERGA(MWh)

60
21 2007 86.93
50
22 2008 83.48
40
23 2009 93.43
30

20

10

0
1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

AOS

lineal exponencial logaritmica

2010 8897.6 9710.07928 8824.862669575
2011 9215.96 10332.1919 9141.1024174523
2012 9534.32 10994.1625 9457.1849494409
2013 9852.68 11698.5447 9773.1104217796
2014 10171.04 12448.0558 10088.8789904751
2015 10489.4 13245.5871 10404.4908113023
 Y=AX+B

Y=Ae^(BX)
3.18 X Y X^2 X*Y Ln(Y)=Ln(A)+B
1987 28.7 3948169 57026.9
1988 27.16 3952144 53994.08 %DONDE:
Y'=Ln(Y)
-6310 1989 26.12 3956121 51952.68 A'=Ln(A
1990 29.17 3960100 58048.3
ENTONCES:
1991 32.66 3964081 65026.06 Y'=A'+BX
1992 33.99 3968064 67708.08
Y=318.36X-631006 1993 36.14 3972049 72027.02 A'=Y'-BX
1994 33.91 3976036 67616.54 B=(
ESION(lineal) 1995 33.53 3980025 66892.35
1996 32.42 3984016 64710.32
Li near (ENERGA)
1997 34.68 3988009 69255.96 (^
1998 33.15 3992004 66233.7 ()^
1999 40.98 3996001 81919.02
2000 49.05 4000000 98100
2001 4004001 119439.69 100
59.69
2002 66.22 4008004 132572.44 90
f(
2003 71.77 4012009 143755.31 R
80
2004 75.91 4016016 152123.64
2005 79.7 4020025 159798.5 70
2006 78.3 4024036 157069.8
60

ENERGA(MWh)
2007 86.93 4028049 174468.51
50
2008 83.48 4032064 167627.84
2009 93.43 4036081 187700.87 40
98 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

OS 45954 1167.09 91817104 2335067.61 30

20

10

0
1984 1986 19
 CURVA DE REGRESION EXPONENCIAL Y=Ae^(BX)

Y=Ae^(BX)
Ln(Y)=Ln(A)+BX A'= -120.2174022
B= 0.0621
%DONDE:
Y'=Ln(Y)
A'=Ln(A) A= 6.1694379E-53

ENTONCES:
Y'=A'+BX ENTONCES:
Y=(6.1694E-53)e^(0.062*X)
A'=Y'-BX
B=( ^
^ )/
(^
()^ )

CURVA DE REGRESION(exponencial)
100
ENERGA Exponentia l (ENERGA)
90
f(x) = 6.16943788738097E-53 exp( 0.0620862887 x )
R = 0.9047696325
80

70

60
ENERGA(MWh)

50

40

30

20

10

0
1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
AOS
 X Y Y' X*Y' X^2
1987 28.7 3.35689712 6670.15458 3948169
1988 27.16 3.3017453 6563.86966 3952144
1989 26.12 3.2627013 6489.51289 3956121
1990 29.17 3.37314078 6712.55016 3960100
1991 32.66 3.48615109 6940.92682 3964081
1992 33.99 3.52606636 7023.9242 3968064
1993 36.14 3.58740029 7149.68877 3972049
1994 33.91 3.52370996 7026.27765 3976036
1995 33.53 3.51244056 7007.31892 3980025
1996 32.42 3.47877552 6943.63593 3984016
1997 34.68 3.54616315 7081.68781 3988009
1998 33.15 3.50104272 6995.08335 3992004
1999 40.98 3.71308414 7422.4552 3996001
2000 49.05 3.89284019 7785.68037 4000000
2001 59.69 4.0891645 8182.41817 4004001
2002 66.22 4.19298253 8394.35103 4008004
2003 71.77 4.27346656 8559.75352 4012009 CURVA DE R
2004 75.91 4.32954843 8676.41505 4016016
2005 4.37826959 8778.43052 4020025 ENE
79.7
2006 78.3 4.3605476 8747.25849 4024036 100

2007 86.93 4.4651032 8961.46212 4028049 90

2008 83.48 4.42460708 8884.61102 4032064 80 f(x) = 6358.0183226021 l n(x
R = 0.8749927764
2009 93.43 4.53721249 9115.2599 4036081
70
45954 1167.09 88.1130605 176112.726 91817104
ENERGA(MWh)

60

50

40

30

20

10

0
1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 19
 CURVA DE REGRESION EXPONENCIAL Y=A+Bln(X)

Y=A+Bln(X)
B= 6358.02
%DONDE: A= -48270
X'=Ln(X)

ENTONCES: ENTONCES
Y=A+BX' Y=6358Ln(X)-48270

A=Y-BX'
B=( ^
^ )/(^
(^ )^ )

CURVA DE REGRESION(lOGARITMICA)
ENERGA Loga ri thmi c (ENERGA)
100

90

80 f(x) = 6358.0183226021 l n(x) - 48269.5378236585

R = 0.8749927764
70

ENERGA(MWh)

60

50

40

30

20

10

0
1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

AOS
 X Y X' X'*Y X'^2
1987 28.7 7.59438124 217.958742 57.6746265
1988 27.16 7.59488439 206.27706 57.6822689
1989 26.12 7.59538728 198.391516 57.6899079
1990 29.17 7.59588992 221.572109 57.6975436
1991 32.66 7.5963923 248.098173 57.705176
1992 33.99 7.59689444 258.218442 57.7128051
1993 36.14 7.59739632 274.569903 57.7204308
1994 33.91 7.59789795 257.64472 57.7280533
1995 33.53 7.59839933 254.77433 57.7356724
1996 32.42 7.59890046 246.356353 57.7432882
1997 34.68 7.59940133 263.547238 57.7509006
1998 33.15 7.59990196 251.93675 57.7585098
1999 40.98 7.60040233 311.464488 57.7661156
2000 49.05 7.60090246 372.824266 57.7737182
2001 59.69 7.60140233 453.727705 57.7813175
2002 66.22 7.60190196 503.397948 57.7889134
2003 71.77 7.60240134 545.624344 57.7965061
2004 75.91 7.60290046 577.136174 57.8040954
2005 79.7 7.60339934 605.990927 57.8116815 CURVA DE REGRES
2006 78.3 7.60389797 595.385211 57.8192643
ENERGA
2007 86.93 7.60439635 661.050175 57.8268438
100
2008 83.48 7.60489448 634.856591 57.8344201
f(x) = 0.1560499718x^2 - 620.39210023
2009 93.43 7.60539236 710.571809 57.841993 90 R = 0.9493915109
45954 1167.09 174.797618 8871.37497 1328.44405 80

70
ENERGA(MWh)

60

50

40

30

20

10

0
1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996
 [23 45954
CURVA DE REGRESION POLINOMICA Y=Bo+B1X+B2X^2 45954 91817104
91817104 1.83455E+1
Y=B0+B1*X+B2*X^2

sistema de ecuaciones normales:

B0*n+B1*+B2*^ =
B0*+B1*^ +B2*^ = matriz
B0*^ +B1*^ +B2*^ = ^

23*B0+45954*B1+91817104*B2=116790
45954*B0+91817104*B1+1.8345E+11*B2=233506761
91817104*B0+1.8345E+11*B1+3.6655E+14*B2=4.672E+11 matriz invers

B0=
B1=
B2=
ENTONCES Y=0.156*X^2-62039.06*X+616634

CURVA DE REGRESION(POLINOMICA)
ENERGA Polynomia l (ENERGA)
0
f(x) = 0.1560499718x^2 - 620.3921002309x + 616635.181605794
0 R = 0.9493915109
0

0
1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

AOS
[23 45954 91817104 [B0 [116790
45954 91817104 1.83455E+11 B1 233506761 X Y
91817104 1.83455E+11 3.66554E+14] = 4.672E+11]
B2] 1987 28.7
1988 27.16
1989 26.12
23 45954 91817104 1167.09 1990 29.17
45954 91817104 1.8345E+11 2335067.61 1991 32.66
91817104 1.8345E+11 3.6655E+14 4671959100 1992 33.99
1993 36.14
449912351 -450365.7 112.703636 1994 33.91
-450365.7 450.820501 -0.1128177 1995 33.53
112.703636 -0.1128177 2.8233E-05 1996 32.42
1997 34.68
616636 1998 33.15
-620.39 1999 40.98
0.156 2000 49.05
2001 59.69
2002 66.22
2003 71.77
2004 75.91
2005 79.7
2006 78.3
2007 86.93
2008 83.48
2009 93.43
45954 1167.09
 X^2 X^3 X^4 X*Y (X^2)*Y
3948169 7845011803 1.5588E+13 57026.9 113312450
3952144 7856862272 1.5619E+13 53994.08 107340231
3956121 7868724669 1.5651E+13 51952.68 103333881
3960100 7880599000 1.5682E+13 58048.3 115516117
3964081 7892485271 1.5714E+13 65026.06 129466885
3968064 7904383488 1.5746E+13 67708.08 134874495
3972049 7916293657 1.5777E+13 72027.02 143549851
3976036 7928215784 1.5809E+13 67616.54 134827381
3980025 7940149875 1.5841E+13 66892.35 133450238
3984016 7952095936 1.5872E+13 64710.32 129161799
3988009 7964053973 1.5904E+13 69255.96 138304152
3992004 7976023992 1.5936E+13 66233.7 132334933
3996001 7988005999 1.5968E+13 81919.02 163756121
4000000 8000000000 1.6E+13 98100 196200000
4004001 8012006001 1.6032E+13 119439.69 238998820
4008004 8024024008 1.6064E+13 132572.44 265410025
4012009 8036054027 1.6096E+13 143755.31 287941886
4016016 8048096064 1.6128E+13 152123.64 304855775
4020025 8060150125 1.6161E+13 159798.5 320395993
4024036 8072216216 1.6193E+13 157069.8 315082019
4028049 8084294343 1.6225E+13 174468.51 350158300
4032064 8096384512 1.6258E+13 167627.84 336596703
4036081 8108486729 1.629E+13 187700.87 377091048
91817104 1.8345E+11 3.6655E+14 2335067.61 4671959100
AOS E(GW-h) MD(MW) tarifa(US$/MWh) fc
1987 28.7 726 41.5 0.451
1988 27.16 744 29.3 0.417
1989 26.12 756 24 0.394
1990 29.17 828 49 0.402
1991 32.66 892 47.1 0.418
1992 33.99 915 64.3 0.424
1993 36.14 904 35.9 0.456
1994 33.91 918 76.1 0.422
1995 33.53 936 84 0.409
1996 32.42 948 86 0.390
1997 34.68 1066 82 0.371
1998 33.15 1083 71 0.349
1999 40.98 1295 68 0.361
2000 49.05 1584 72 0.353
2001 59.69 1946 69 0.350
2002 66.22 1888 66 0.400
2003 71.77 1917 66 0.427
2004 75.91 2020 70 0.429
2005 79.7 2105 76 0.432
2006 78.3 2237 75 0.400
2007 86.93 2300 74 0.431
2008 83.48 2336 74 0.408
2009 93.43 2347 0.454
PBI depar(MMs/) PBI nacio(MMs/) poblacion
24.80 110.20 30.419
22.40 99.80 30.614 CORRELACION ENERG
23.60 86.40 30.810
ENERGIA PBI
20.80 82.00 31.005
100
21.70 83.80 31.201 90
21.90 83.40 31.396 80
22.40 87.40 31.592 70
60
26.10 98.60 31.787

Axis Title
50
28.90 107.10 31.983 40
29.30 109.80 32.178 30
29.80 117.30 32.374 20
10
29.60 116.50 32.569 0
31.30 117.60 32.765 1985 1990 1995 2000

31.80 121.10 32.886 Axis Title

32.30 121.30 33.174

33.90 127.40 33.421
35.30 132.50 33.640
33.70 139.10 33.847
36.40 148.60 34.041 CORRELACION ENERGI
38.40 160.10 34.221
ENERGIA T
42.50 174.40 34.383
100
46.00 191.50 34.529
90
193.20 34.667 80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1985 1990 1995 2000
 CORRELACION ENERGIA VS PBI CORRELACIN ENEREGA VS PBI N
ENERGIA PBI (mms /) energa PBI na ci onal
250

200

150

100

50

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

0
Axis Title 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

CORRELACION ENERGIA VS TARIFA CORRELACION ENERGIA VS PO

ENERGIA POB
ENERGIA TARIFA
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 0
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2
N ENEREGA VS PBI NACIO
energa PBI na ci onal

995 2000 2005 2010 2015

ACION ENERGIA VS POB

ENERGIA POB

95 2000 2005 2010 2015

AO PBI DEPART PBI NACIO POB TARIFA
1987 24.80 110.20 30.419 41.5
1988 22.40 99.80 30.614 29.3
1989 23.60 86.40 30.810 24
1990 20.80 82.00 31.005 49
1991 21.70 83.80 31.201 47.1
1992 21.90 83.40 31.396 64.3
1993 22.40 87.40 31.592 35.9
1994 26.10 98.60 31.787 76.1
1995 28.90 107.10 31.983 84
1996 29.30 109.80 32.178 86
1997 29.80 117.30 32.374 82
1998 29.60 116.50 32.569 71
1999 31.30 117.60 32.765 68
2000 31.80 121.10 32.886 72
2001 32.30 121.30 33.174 69
2002 33.90 127.40 33.421 66
2003 35.30 132.50 33.640 66
2004 33.70 139.10 33.847 70
2005 36.40 148.60 34.041 76
2006 38.40 160.10 34.221 75
2007 42.50 174.40 34.383 74
2008 46.00 191.50 34.529
2009 193.20 34.667
2010 204.700 34.798 79.900
2011 217.000 34.928 81.500
2012 232.200 35.046 82.300
2013 249.600 35.157 82.300
2014 269.600 35.261 82.300
2015 272.3 35.360 82.3
 AOS E(MW-h)
1 1987 28.7 PRONOSTICO ENERGA
2 1988 27.16
140
3 1989 26.12
4 1990 29.17
120
5 1991 32.66
6 1992 33.99 100
7 1993 36.14
8 1994 33.91 80
9 1995 33.53
10 1996 32.42 60
11 1997 34.68
12 1998 33.15 40

13 1999 40.98
20
14 2000 49.05
15 2001 59.69
0
16 2002 66.22 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2
17 2003 71.77
18 2004 75.91
19 2005 79.7
20 2006 78.3
21 2007 86.93
22 2008 83.48
23 2009 93.43
24 2010 97.10
25 2011 103.32
26 2012 109.94
27 2013 116.99
28 2014 124.48
 PRONOSTICO ENERGA

5 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

 AOS E(MW-h) E CORRE(MW-h) PBI DEPART
1 1987 28.7 28.7 24.80
2 1988 27.16 27.16 22.40
3 1989 26.12 26.12 23.60
4 1990 29.17 29.17 20.80
5 1991 32.66 32.66 21.70
6 1992 33.99 33.99 21.90
7 1993 36.14 36.14 22.40
8 1994 33.91 33.91 26.10
9 1995 33.53 33.53 28.90
10 1996 32.42 32.42 29.30
11 1997 34.68 34.68 29.80
12 1998 33.15 33.15 29.60
13 1999 40.98 40.98 31.30
14 2000 49.05 49.05 31.80
15 2001 59.69 59.69 32.30
16 2002 66.22 66.22 33.90
17 2003 71.77 71.77 35.30
18 2004 75.91 75.91 33.70
19 2005 79.7 79.7 36.40
20 2006 78.3 78.3 38.40
21 2007 86.93 86.93 42.50
22 2008 83.48 83.48 46.00
23 2009 93.43 93.43
24 2010 97.10
25 2011 103.32
26 2012 109.94
27 2013 116.99
28 2014 124.48
PBI NACIO POB TARIFA
110.20 30.419 41.5
Chart Title
99.80 30.614 29.3 300

86.40 30.810 24 250

82.00 31.005 49
200
83.80 31.201 47.1
83.40 31.396 64.3 150
87.40 31.592 35.9
100
98.60 31.787 76.1
107.10 31.983 84 50
109.80 32.178 86
0
117.30 32.374 82 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
116.50 32.569 71 ENERGA PBI NACIONAL POB TARIFA
117.60 32.765 68
121.10 32.886 72
121.30 33.174 69
127.40 33.421 66
132.50 33.640 66
139.10 33.847 70
148.60 34.041 76
160.10 34.221 75
174.40 34.383 74
191.50 34.529
193.20 34.667
204.700 34.798 79.900
217.000 34.928 81.500
232.200 35.046 82.300
249.600 35.157 82.300
269.600 35.261 82.300
272.3
2010 2015 2020
B TARIFA

35.360 82.3