Journal of Food Process Engineering ISSN 1745-4530

PREDICTION OF LETHALITY BY NONLINEAR ARTIFICIAL

NEURAL NETWORK MODELING
METIN GULDAS1,4, FERHAT KURTULMUS2 and OZAN GURBUZ3
1
Department of Food Processing, Uludag University Karacabey Vocational School, Bursa 16700, Turkey
2
Department of Biosystems Engineering, Uludag University Agricultural Faculty, Bursa 16059, Turkey
3
Department of Food Engineering, Uludag University Agricultural Faculty, Bursa 16059, Turkey

4
Corresponding author. ABSTRACT
TEL: 190 224 2942662/61653;
FAX: 190 224 6765562; In this research, the aim was to predict F value (lethality or sterilization value) of
EMAIL: mguldas@uludag.edu.tr canned peas by using a nonlinear auto-regressive artificial neural network model
with exogenous input (NARX-ANN). During the model testing, training,
Received for Publication March 15, 2016
validation and reliability steps were followed, respectively. It was found that the
Accepted for Publication June 28, 2016
model tested was a useful tool to predict the F value for the canned foods with
doi:10.1111/jfpe.12457 high reliability. Cross-validation rules were performed for training and testing of
the model. F value of the 5 kg canned peas could be predicted with a high degree
of accuracy (R2 5 0.9982, mean square error (MSE) 5 0.1088) using training the
data yielded from 0.5 kg canned peas despite huge mass differences between
cross-validated data sets. When the same data sets were trained and tested
inversely, a high degree of prediction accuracy (R2 5 0.9914, MSE 5 0.6262) was
also observed. The model is also significant in terms of reducing the operational
costs due to the fact that higher temperatures and longer process times lead to
increased energy costs.

PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS
In this research, it was found that nonlinear auto-regressive artificial neural
network model with exogenous input is a reliable model for the prediction of
lethality rate (F value) in canned food factories. It also provides the advantage of
estimating process time more accurately in the retort and thus, reducing
operational costs.

INTRODUCTION
F value (Lethality) is a term or measurement for determining
thermal process efficiency in canned foods in order to pro-
duce healthy and safe foods. It is also known as a sterilization
value. Sterilization is also an unavoidable heating process in
canned foods with low acidity (pH > 4.5), mainly aimed to
eradicate spore forming bacteria (especially Clostridium bot-
ulinum) and vegetative forming bacteria.
The conditions of heat processing required to terminate
microorganisms in canned foods can be determined through
thermal death time (TDT) studies. In order to compare the
sterilization efficiencies of heat processes, a unit of lethality
or lethality rate needs to be determined. D and Z values
should be defined at first to determine lethality. These values
are used to designate the heat resistance of the target micro-
organisms. The D value is described as the time, at a desig-
nated temperature, required to reduce a determined number
of microorganisms by 90% or to result in a 1-log reduction.
This is also called the decimal reduction time because expo-
sure for this length of time decreases the number of counts
by 90%, therefore relocating the decimal point in the num-
ber of microorganisms remaining by one place to the left. To
determine the D values at certain temperatures, a Z value
can be determined from the slope of the line that results
from plotting the log of D values versus temperature. The Z
value, indicative of the change in the death rate based on
temperature, is the number of degrees between a 10-fold
change (1 log cycle) in a microorganisms resistance. As a

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PREDICTION OF LETHALITY BY NARX-ANN MODELING
function of D and Z values, F value can be calculated. F value
(lethality) can be defined as an equivalent heating of 1 min
at a reference temperature, which is generally 121.18C (250
F) for sterilization of low acid foods (Radrigan and Ca~
numir
2009).
On the other hand, it is not possible to heat canned foods
in high temperatures and long times without avoiding nutri-
tional and sensorial losses (such as off-flavor) in terms of
consumer preferences. In addition, higher temperatures and
longer process times lead to increased energy costs. There-
fore, F value determinations and temperature-time optimi-
zations have been done and sterilization parameters have
been checked periodically in can plants at least once in every
production season. There are many parameters to be consid-
ered such as container size and shape, thermophysical prop-
erties of foods, heating conditions, etc. But in practice, can
size and the food type to be canned are the most significant
factors which influence F value. These controls and experi-
ments are time consuming and costly processes for canned
food plants (Guldas et al. 2008). On the other hand, during
thermal sterilization of canned liquid foods, time and tem-
perature data are generally used to evaluate process efficien-
cy. For this reason, theoretical models can be applied for the
process design, optimization and validation (Dwivedi and
Ramaswamy 2010). An advanced prediction model for F val-
ue prediction can reduce the costs and time involved in F
value evaluation.
Recent developments observed in the computer program-
ming technologies have led to the development of new
computer-based prediction models instead of complex
mathematical models. In this context, artificial intelligence
has been developed for prediction by using various process
parameters and called as an artificial neural network (ANN).
It has been widely acknowledged effective alternative tool
compared to conventional mathematical models, especially
for the nonlinear systems based on regression, differential
and analytical concepts (Chen and Ramaswamy 2003).
ANN is a mathematical modeling approach which simu-
lates functions of the biological neurons which have a great
capacity to adopt nonlinear mechanisms. Therefore, ANN
modeling has a significant potential for prediction on com-
plex nonlinear systems (Lacroix et al. 1995; Ghazanfari
2014) and has been used for numerous food applications
(Afaghi et al. 2000; Chen and Ramaswamy, 2000; Chen and
Ramaswamy, 2002a, 2002b, 2000c; Chen and Ramaswamy,
2003; Sablani et al. 2006; Kannan and Gourisankar Sandaka,
2008; Sliwinska et al. 2014).
It has been stated that prediction performance of ANN
modeling was more versatile (Park et al. 2005) and has high
computational speed, fault tolerance, robustness and poten-
tial for online use (Chen and Ramaswamy 2003) when com-
pared to a classical regression modeling approach. The heat
sterilization during retort cycle follows a nonlinear plot
2 Journal of Food Process Engineering 00 (2016) 0000 V
M. GULDAS, F. KURTULMUS AND O. GURBUZ
(broken bell-shaped curve) and has three phases; heating,
sterilization at a target temperature for a certain time and
cool-down. Therefore, we used a nonlinear modeling (non-
linear auto-regressive artificial neural network model with
exogenous input (NARX-ANN)) for prediction of the lethal-
ity in this study. From the literature survey, it was found that
ANN modeling, which directly focused on lethality concept
during sterilization of particulate foods, was very rarely
investigated (Chen and Ramaswamy 2003) according to
authors knowledge. On the other hand, simulation of ther-
mal sterilization parameters by the NARX version of ANN
modeling was also applied for the first time.
The purpose of this study is (1) the determination of actu-
al F values (integrated sterility value/lethality) by using inner
temperatures at the coldest spot of the canned peas, (2) the
modeling of inner temperatures and F values of the cans
using the NARX-ANN model to obtain simulated data, (3)
comparing the outputs of the NARX-ANN model with the
actual values and (4) predicting F values with the simulated
data obtained from the ANN model (NARX-ANN). There-
fore, determining the reliability of the current model was
tested in this study.
MATERIALS AND METHODS
This study was established in a private canned food factory
(Tat Canned Foods Co.) in the Karacabey Town of Bursa
Province in Turkey, during the pea harvest season in May
2014. Three different can sizes (0.5, 1.0 and 5.0 kg) were cho-
sen for modeling and canned peas, as the investigated food
material, were used to predict F value by the NARX-ANN
method.
To predict F value by NARX-ANN method, at first the
model was established with actual temperature and F values
which were measured for each can size. After conditioning
the model with the actual values, predicted F values were
produced considering the can sizes. The predicted values
were compared to actual ones by the selected ANN method
used.
Production
For the canned pea production, peas with 8.08.5 mm aver-
age diameter were graded by means of a cylindrical sieve.
Graded peas were boiled in hot water at 90958C by rotary
blancher for 1.01.5 min. After blanching, the peas were
cooled by dipping into cold water, drained and placed into
the empty tin cans. Brine was poured into the tin cans at
85908C. The brine solution contained 2% NaCl and 0.1%
citric acid. The pH of the brine solution was 4.64.9. The
filled tin cans were then thermally exhausted in a tunnel at
858C. The head space was between 5 and 10 mm after filling.
The filled cans were immediately seamed with a COMACO,
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M. GULDAS, F. KURTULMUS AND O. GURBUZ
AIM 4R (Italy) can seamer. The net weights for 0.5, 1.0 and
5.0 kg sizes of cans were 420 6 5, 830 6 5 and 4,250 6 5 g,
respectively. The container sizes were 0.5 kg (73 3 110 mm),
1 kg (99 3 119 mm) and 5 kg (154 3 242 mm).
Data Measurement
The thermocouples (copper-constant, type A/S, Ellab,
Copenhagen, Denmark) were calibrated against a quartz
thermometer in an oil bath at 908C before being mounted
into the cans. Rounded needle-type thermocouple probes
(GKM 13009 CO52) were used to measure the temperatures
at the vertical axis of the cans. Measurements were recorded
at 30 s intervals during programmed retort cycles of the ther-
mal sterilizations process. Therefore, each time period of
30 s was equal to 1 time index for the evaluation. Canned
peas in brine are liquid-solid mixtures; therefore, the heat
transfer inside of the can mainly occurs by convective heat-
ing. The thermocouple is generally assembled at a point 1/10
along the vertical axis from the bottom of the can for cold
spot measurement of canned convection-heated foods.
The needles of the thermocouples were placed into the
empty cans along the vertical axis at first, and then the grad-
ed peas and the brine solution (2% NaCl) were poured slow-
ly into the cans. Thus, temperature measurements were
obtained from the liquid phase.
The dimension of the retort baskets was 70 3 70 3 81 cm
for the sterilization cycle. The measurements were carried
out over five runs with nine thermocouples. The retort has a
capacity to accommodate four baskets in each cycle. But, for
this study, three baskets were used for the experimental
cycles. The cans mounted with thermocouple were carefully
spaced into the retort to ensure good circulation of steam
and were placed into the retort at the top, middle and bot-
tom to ensure accurate measurement. The position of the
baskets in every run was also changed. An Ellab CTF 9008
(Ellab, Roedovre, Denmark) digital recorder with a track
sense data logging system (TS version 4.01) was used to
record temperatures in the retort. This system was calibrated
prior to the experimental setup to kill the most harmful
microorganisms in canned peas. After the system attained
the set retort temperature, it automatically began to cool.
Retort Cycle
During the sterilization cycle, the set temperature of the
retort was 1228C and the inner pressure was about 2.0
bars, adjusted for each batch. The cycle periods were 1 h : 41
min : 30 s. Data were recorded during the whole cycle at
30 s. intervals. The whole retort was reloaded for each batch/
run, ensuring all the batches were true replicates. The retort
used for the sterilization cycles was Lubeca LW 3003 ROS
(Germany) with 1.000 kg capacity. It was a water-cascading,
automatically controlled horizontal retort, equipped with
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PREDICTION OF LETHALITY BY NARX-ANN MODELING
four baskets and an automatic steam heating and cooling
control system. The retort was used in static mode to pro-
vide convective heating. While the experiments were per-
formed, the normal operation at the factory was disrupted.
Convection-heated foods exhibit a broken heating curve
between the heating and cooling periods of the sterilization
cycle. Liquid foods containing loosely packed particulates,
like canned peas in brine, reflect a semilogarithmic curve
after a relatively short lag and reveal a much more perpen-
dicular slope (Ramaswamy and Marcotte 2006).
F Value Determination
In this study, at first, the inner temperature of the canned
peas was measured to determine the integrated sterility value
(lethality) at the coldest spot of the cans. Then, we trained
the model with the actual data to predict the sterility values
of other cans. To increase model reliability, we statistically
compared predicted values with actual and measured values.
The actual and integrated F values were determined accord-
ing to the formula below before the NARX-ANN model was
used:
2t 3
Tt2Tr
F0 54 10 z dt5 (1)
0
where F0 5 lethality/sterilization value; Tr 5 reference tem-
perature (121.1C); Z 5 108C (temperature sensitivity indica-
tor, which represents the temperature range between which
the D value (decimal reduction time) curve passes through
one logarithmic cycle); T 5 current temperature.
The pH value of brine in the canned peas was between 4.6
and 4.9. Therefore, considering the pH value, the targeted
microorganism was C. botulinum and the sterilization tem-
perature for the target microorganism was 121.18C.
Artificial Neural Network Modeling
ANNs are a subset of machine learning methods. They are
used for solving many complex problems such as function
approximation, classification and regression. Contrary to
many machine learning methods, ANNs try to use hidden
relationships between the features for modeling. In terms of
a supervised learning approach, they learn by using a series
of parameters or category variables which can be observed
or actually known in advance and make predictions with
unseen data based on this learning process. With this
approach, ANNs imitate central nervous systems of animals
consisting of tremendous biological neurons (Smith 1996).
ANNs are constructed by layers, including many computa-
tional elements called neurons or nodes. The input layer has
neurons which correspond to features. Each output value is
represented with a neuron in the output layer. There is
3
PREDICTION OF LETHALITY BY NARX-ANN MODELING
hidden layer (or layers) between input and output layers.
Neurons transmit information to the next interconnected
neurons through transfer or activation functions (Omid
et al. 2009). For each training iteration that provides this
information flow, neuron connection weights are updated
according to a learning rule and a structure of hidden rela-
tionships is established inside the network.
Nonlinear Auto-Regressive With Exogenous
Input Model
A typical ANN has no connection from output to input neu-
rons. However, dynamic systems such as food processes
involved in timed periods require feedback information
from the output of the network (Lertworasirikul and Tipsu-
wan 2008; Beale et al. 2014). These types of ANNs are called
recurrent neural networks. A type of recurrent ANN, nonlin-
ear auto-regressive with exogenous input model (NARX-
ANN) was used to model the thermal sterilization process
and to estimate F values for canned peas in this study. The
NARX-ANN model uses two types of inputs, namely, state
and exogenous variables. Feedback information is fed to
ANN with stated variables. Both inputs are time series.
Tapped delay lines (TDL) hold previous values of the input
(Lertworasirikul and Tipsuwan 2008; Oko et al. 2015). In
Eq. (2), a general NARX model is defined:
yt5f yt21; yt22; . . . ; yt2ny ; tures of the can sizes reciprocally, so we used a fixed number
(2)
ut21; ut22; . . . ; ut2nu
where y(t) is the signal of dependent variables to be
predicted. And it is regressed on previous values of y(t)
itself (yt21; jt22; . . . ; yt2ny ) and previous values of
an independent or exogenous input signal (ut21;
ut22; . . . ; ut2nu ) (Beale et al. 2014; Oko et al. 2015).
The NARX-ANN model uses a feed-forward neural network
to approximate the function f with the previous values of the
data which are held using TDL. A simple representation of
the NARX-ANN structure used in this study is illustrated in
Fig. 1. In this study, F values were state variable to predict
and temperature values T correspond to exogenous input.
Thus, Eq. (3) can be rewritten as follows:
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M. GULDAS, F. KURTULMUS AND O. GURBUZ
FIG. 1. ILLUSTRATION OF NARX-
ANN MODEL USED IN THIS STUDY
(BEALE ET AL. 2014; OKO ET AL.
2015)
Ft5f Ft21; Ft22; . . . ; Ft2ny ;
(3)
Tt21; Tt22; . . . ; Tt2nu
For training, validating and testing NARX-ANN models,
the data corresponding to each configuration (can size) was
randomly split into three subsets: training (70%), validating
(15%) and testing (15%) according to cross-validation rules.
During training iterations, neuron weights were updated by
the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm. Maximum iteration
value was limited to 1,000. To eliminate the drawback of dif-
ferent ranges between the variables, normalization was also
applied in the range between 21 and 1 before training and
testing the models. In the beginning of training models, net-
work weights were initialized randomly. A hyperbolic tan-
gent sigmoid transfer function and a linear transfer function
were used for hidden layer and output layer, respectively.
Equations of the transfer functions used in hidden layer and
output layer are given in Eqs. (4) and (5).
2
tan sigx5 21 (4)
11e22x
purelinx5x (5)
An ANN can be built with various numbers of the neurons
in the hidden layer. This study focused on predicting F value
by using an actual F value obtained from the inner tempera-
of neurons in the hidden layer for all NARX-ANN models
investigated. Thus, a total of 10 neurons were used in the
hidden layer as the default network parameter of Matlab.
MSE was used as a performance function of the models, and
the error value was set to 0.001. Training processes were
stopped when the desired MSE was reached, validation error
did not reduce for five training iterations, or when the
desired goal was reached. Thus, over-fitting the network was
prevented. When a NARX-ANN model was trained, the net-
work with updated weights and biases was stored for the
experiments. In this study, data belonging to each can size
was used as training data at least once and experiments were
conducted on data from other can sizes. The best NARX-
ANN model was determined by considering the highest R2
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M. GULDAS, F. KURTULMUS AND O. GURBUZ
FIG. 2. (a) THREE-DIMENSIONAL VARIATION PLOT OF TEMPERATURE
(8C) AND F VALUE VERSUS TIME INDEX DURING RETORT CYCLE FOR
0.5 KG CANS (1 TIME INDEX 5 30 S AND TOTAL NUMBER OF TIME
INDICES 5 204). (b) THREE-DIMENSIONAL VARIATION PLOT OF TEM-
PERATURE (8C) AND F VALUE VERSUS TIME INDEX DURING RETORT
CYCLE FOR 1 KG CANS (1 TIME INDEX 5 30 S AND TOTAL NUMBER
OF TIME INDICES 5 204). (c) THREE-DIMENSIONAL VARIATION PLOT
OF TEMPERATURE (8C) AND F VALUE VERSUS TIME INDEX DURING
RETORT CYCLE FOR 5 KG CANS (1 TIME INDEX 5 30 S AND TOTAL
NUMBER OF TIME INDICES 5 204)
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PREDICTION OF LETHALITY BY NARX-ANN MODELING
and the lowest MSE values to predict F value. The MSE and
R2 values were computed by using Eqs. (6) and (7) (Lertwor-
asirikul and Tipsuwan 2008).
PM
m51 zm 2tm 2
MSE5 (6)
M
PM
zm 2tm 2
R2 512 Pm51
M 2 (7)
m51 tm 2ta
In Eqs. (6) and (7), M denotes the number of time index m,
zm is predicted output of the mth F value, tm is the ground-
truth (actually measured/observed data from sterilization
experiment) of the mth F value, ta is the mean value of all
outputs.
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
The retort cycle during the sterilization of canned peas in
our research consisted of three main stages: (1) heating
(come-up) stage in which steam enters the sterilization retort
and air is removed from the sterilization chamber, (2) sterili-
zation stage in which cans are exposed to steam at a set tem-
perature for a predefined time and (3) cool-down stage in
which high pressure steam is removed gradually to reach
normal atmospheric pressure by air entering the chamber.
During the sterilization with real time, changes monitored
regarding cold spot temperatures and F values versus time
for 0.5, 1.0 and 5.0 kg canned peas were illustrated in Fig.
2ac, respectively. In these three plots, each time index repre-
sented a time period of 30 s. This is a typical slope for
convection-heated canned foods. It can be distinguished eas-
ily with a perpendicular ascending slope compared to con-
duction heated canned foods.
In this study, modeling performance of configurations
(training and testing couples) with different can sizes were
investigated to reveal which sterilization configuration mod-
els F values were better in order to predict other sterilization
processes having different can sizes than the one used for
training. In Table 1, rows represent training configurations
and columns represent prediction performances on corre-
sponding test data. According to Table 1, most R2 values
were higher than 0.99. This shows the accuracy of the mod-
els used for predicting F values. Chen and Ramaswamy
(2003) have obtained similar high correlation coefficient
(R2 > 0.99) from their ANN model used to evaluate critical
control points based on the retort parameters.
The best cross-validation performance (R2 5 0.9993;
MSE 5 0.0492) was obtained when the data set belonging to
the 1 kg can size was used for training of the NARX-ANN
model, and the data belonging to the 0.5 kg can size was
used for testing. During the sterilization process, as inferred
from Table 1, the findings obtained from 1 kg can size were
5
PREDICTION OF LETHALITY BY NARX-ANN MODELING M. GULDAS, F. KURTULMUS AND O. GURBUZ

TABLE 1. CROSS-VALIDATION PERFORMANCES OF THE NARX-ANN MODEL TO PREDICT F VALUES

Test performance

0.5 kg 1 kg 5 kg
2 2
Training configuration R MSE R MSE R2 MSE

0.5 kg 0.9921 0.5845 0.9982 0.1088

1.0 kg 0.9993 0.0492 0.9974 0.1724
5.0 kg 0.9914 0.6262 0.9972 0.1761

quite similar to the data obtained from 0.5 kg can size.

Another remarkable result obtained from this study, it was
found that the prediction of F value for 5 kg can size was
able to predict with a high accuracy (R2 5 0.9982, MSE 5
0.1088) using training data yielded from 0.5 kg can size
despite the huge mass difference between cross-validated
data sets. When these the same data sets were trained and
tested inversely, a high prediction accuracy (R2 5 0.9914,
MSE 5 0.6262) was also obtained. Therefore, this finding
confirmed that the NARX-ANN model was suitable for
modeling and prediction of different can sizes during the
sterilization process.
Despite successful results given in Table 1, it is important
to check whether there was an over-fitting of the data. For
evaluation of the trained model in terms of over-fitting, the
training record was calculated and investigated as illustrated FIG. 4. THE TIME SERIES RESPONSE OF NARX-ANN MODEL FOR
in Fig. 3. According to the training record, MSE values of PREDICTING F VALUES FOR 1 KG
validation and testing followed similar vectorial behavior
during training iterations of the model belonging to 1.0 kg unchanged. The F value slope reflected a similar ascending
can size as shown in Fig. 3. This situation proved that there line with the cold spot temperatures until the end of the
was no over-fitting in the model used. heating period as given in Fig. 2ac. In Fig. 6, the blue line
The relationship between F value versus time during the and red line represent actual F value and predicted F values
retort cycle was given in Fig. 6. The F value slops ascend by the model, respectively. As it can be understood from
steeply until reaching the set temperature, and then remain Fig. 6, the predicted and actual values followed quite similar
time series.
In this study, for training and testing of the models, a
cross-validation procedure was performed and data were
randomly split into training, validation and testing. Thus,

FIG. 5. F VALUE PREDICTION ERROR AUTOCORRELATION

FIG. 3. TRAINING RECORD OF NARX-ANN MODEL FOR 1 KG CANS DISTRIBUTION FOR 1 KG CAN

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M. GULDAS, F. KURTULMUS AND O. GURBUZ PREDICTION OF LETHALITY BY NARX-ANN MODELING

T time
Tr reference temperature (121.18C)
X variable
Y dependent variable
D decimal reduction time (min); time at 121.18C to
destroy 90% of the cells in a population
Z 108C (temperature sensitivity indicator which repre-
sents the temperature range between which the D
value (decimal reduction time) curve passes through
one logarithmic cycle)
MSE mean squared error
y(t) signal of dependent variables
u(t) independent or exogenous input signal
F function
TDL tapped delay line
FIG. 6. RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TARGET AND PREDICTED F VALUES
ny lag of the model output
DURING THE RETORT CYCLE FOR 1 KG CAN nu lag of the model input
M time index
we could assure reliability of the current models. The retort zm predicted output of the mth F value
cycle data obtained from the sterilization process was 1 h : tm ground-truth (actually measured/observed data)
41 min : 30 s. The time series data of F values regarding ta mean value of all outputs
retort cycle during the sterilization was modeled with the TDH thermal death time
NARX-ANN model as illustrated in Fig. 4. During the train-
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