Chance Level 3 2010 Meagan Millard

2
Students predict the outcome of chance events, such as the rolling of a die, using qualitative terms
such as certain, likely, unlikely and impossible.
2.25

2.5
identification of events which are equally likely
2.75
investigation of the fairness of events such as gambling and games through experimentation
comparison of the likelihood of everyday events and linking of events with statements about how
likely they are to occur
3
They compare the likelihood of everyday events (for example, the chances of rain and snow). They
describe the fairness of events in qualitative terms. They plan and conduct chance experiments (for
example, using colours on a spinner) and display the results of these experiments.
Websites:

Vocabulary:
Chance, likelihood, likely, unlikely, possible, impossible, no chance, little chance, some chance,
certain, uncertain, probable, always, never, sometimes, might, maybe, even chance, one-in-two
chance, 50-50 chance, guess, fair, unfair, lucky, unlucky
Whole Class Focus:
Class brainstorm of chance words. Create some events to match each chance word “It is possible it
will rain tomorrow” “It is impossible for it to rain purple elephants”
Play Greedy Pig. Discuss the chance involved.
Play “Heads and Tails” Students stand up. Choose someone to flip 2 coins. Before they do that,
students choose what they think it will be by showing: 2 hands on heads for 2 heads, 2 hands on
bottoms for tails, or one hand on each for one head and one tail.
List outcomes on board as you play. Keep going until only 1 student is left. Discuss all the possible
outcomes and the likelihood of each.
Play “Dice Race” – select 6 students to line up. Each chooses a number from 1-6. Roll the dice. Every
time their number is rolled, the student takes a step. First to reach a certain destination wins.
*Could also adapt this game to use with spinners, and could help you demonstrate chance of a
colour being spun depending on the amount of the spinner it takes up.
Discuss spinners – how are they used? How do you interpret the chance of each colour being spun
by the size of the sector? Demonstrate with a variety of spinners, testing them out and recording the
results.

Activity 1: Is the game fair? (From Developmental Maths Continuum)

Students consider whether the following spinners are fair for a game involving two players. Player 1
wins if the spinner lands on red and Player 2 wins if the spinner lands on blue.

For each spinner, ask students to discuss which player has the best chance of winning (or whether
each player has an equal chance of winning) and hence whether or not the game is fair.

In each case there are only two possibilities, red or blue, but they are not always equally likely.

Spinner 1

Spinner 2

Spinner 3

Activity 2: Fair Go! (From Maths Developmental Continuum)

In this activity students explore games for two players. Students discuss whether or not they believe
each game is fair and describe the differences in the games. The first two games are unfair, and this
will become obvious to the players. They should be able to say, from evidence of playing the games,
which player has the greatest chance of winning and that the game is unfair. The third game is
mathematically fair. This is harder to observe, and students may be divided about whether it is fair
or not.

At this level, it is NOT intended that students will calculate any probabilities.
Instead, it is intended that by playing the games they will build up an intuitive
feel for chance and the likelihood of winning or not. At a higher level, students
can calculate the probabilities of winning these games and show whether they
are fair or not.
Game 1: For each roll of the die Player 1 wins if the die shows 5 or 6 and Player 2 is the winner if a 1,
2, 3 or 4 is rolled. First have a discussion about the game and ensure that students understand how
it is played and how a player wins. Then get pairs of students to play the game many times, keeping
a record of the number of wins for each player. Have a discussion about whether or not students
believe the game is fair and who is advantaged.
Game 2: For each game, two dice are rolled. Multiply together the numbers that are rolled. Player 1
wins if the product is odd. Player 2 wins if the product is even. For example, if 3 and 5 are rolled,
then player 1 wins because 3 × 5 is 15, an odd number. First have a discussion about the game and
ensure that students understand how it is played and how a player wins. Then get pairs of students
to play the game many times, keeping a record of the number of wins for each player. Have a
discussion about whether or not students believe the game is fair and who is advantaged.
Game 3: For each game, two dice are rolled. Add together the numbers that are rolled. Player 1 wins
if the sum is odd. Player 2 wins if the sum is even. For example, if 3 and 5 are rolled, then player 2
wins because 3 + 5 is 8, an even number. First have a discussion about the game and ensure that
students understand how it is played and how a player wins. Then get pairs of students to play the
game many times, keeping a record of the number of wins for each player. Have a discussion about
whether or not students believe the game is fair and who is advantaged.
Once students have played the games, get them to discuss the differences in the games. They should
get a sense that the first two games are not fair, but they may be uncertain about Game 3, which is
mathematically fair. Lead the students to the understanding that a fair game means that each player
has an equal chance of winning.

Provided that enough games are played, students should get a feel that Games 1 and 2 are unfair,
and be unsure whether Game 3 is fair or not.

 The first two games are not fair, giving an advantage to player 2 in both cases. If pairs of
students from a whole class play these games, then most of the pairs will find that Player 2
wins most of the time in both Games 1 and 2.
 Game 3 is fair. If Game 3 is played by a whole class of pairs of students, some pairs will
find that Player 1 wins more games, other pairs will find that Player 2 wins more games. The
fact that no one is obviously advantaged is evidence, although not proof, that Game 3 is fair.
These introductory ideas are important for early work on chance. In later years, students will
quantify probabilities and consider outcomes for events.

Small Group Focus:

Place 2 red and 2 black counters in a bag. Students should suggest all the possible outcomes for
drawing the counters from the bag one at a time, for example, red, black, black, red. Record the
outcomes on the board. Students then take turns to draw the counters from the bag one at a time.
Keep a tally on the board of each different outcome. Do this 20 times. Discuss the tally. Do all
outcomes have an equal chance of occurring? Why?

Work with spinners.

Play chance games (similar to tuning in class games) and discuss elements of chance in more detail.
Independent Maths:
 Working in pairs, students put two red counters and one each of four different colours in a
bag. They draw one and record the colour and replace it. They repeat it 10 times. Then
students write a statement about each colour and its likelihood of being chosen.
 Give students a selection of chance words. They create statements to match each chance
word.
 Give students a list of events and a list of chance words. They have to match an event to its
likelihood of occurring.
Assessment:
 Portfolio piece to be assigned.