5th November, 2009

Federal Bank Ltd.

Providing financial solutions for all

CMP: Rs.226 Target Price: Rs.284 Initiating Coverage: BUY

Key Share Data Company Profile
Face Value (Rs.) 10 The Federal Bank Limited (FBL) (the erstwhile Travancore
Equity Capital (Rs. crs) 171.03 Federal Bank Limited) was incorporated with an authorised capital
Market. Cap. (Rs. Cr.) 4342.45
52-wk High / Low (Rs.) 270.00 / 110.50 of Rs.5000 at Nedumpuram, a place near Tiruvalla in Central
Average Yearly Volume 147004 Travancore in 28th April of the year 1931 under the Travancore
BSE code 500469
NSE code FEDERALBANK
Company's Act. Shri K.P.Hormis founded the Bank. It started
Reuters code FED.BO business of auction -chitty and other banking transactions
Bloomberg code FB IN connected with agriculture and industry.
Shareholding Pattern – as on 30-09-2009 Investment Rationale:
C o rp. O t hers ,
20% F II, 43%
H o ld.,
Better low cost deposits mix:
12%
FBL has CASA at 25% and it plans to increase it up to 28% in a span of 3 years.
It has around 28% of its retail deposits as NRI deposits and to increase NRI
deposits, FBL is implementing new strategies. FBL is trying to increase the low
cost deposits which would help it to improve margins.
Inst it ut io n,
2 5%
Healthy & high yielding loan book:
Financials (Rs. Cr.)
FBL has very low exposure to sensitive sectors and it also is decreasing its
FY08 FY09 FY10E FY11E exposure to SME to shield against any unexpected economic downturn. FBL
has its own internal rating system and as per this system 90% of loans are in the
Net Int. Inc. 868 1315 1365 1689
NIMs (%) 3.44 4.18 3.69 3.83
range of High & moderate safety.
Operat. Profit 794 1259 1288 1621
PAT 368 500 562 730
Expansion along efficiency improvement:
PAT Gr 26 36 12 30 FBL has plans to increase the number of branches from 612 to 677 by the end of
EPS (Rs.) 22 29 33 43 current financial year. FBL has appointed BOSTON Consultancy Group to
BVPS (Rs.) 229 251 284 327
review the current working of the bank and to come up with strategies to
Key Financial Ratios improve the working and to increase the banking business.
FY08 FY09 FY10E FY11E
P/E 8
10.50 7.72 6.87 5.29
Strong & Huge capital base:
P/ABV 1.00 0.91 0.82 0.71 FBL has the highest CAR in the banking industry. CAR for 2009 was 20.14%,
Cost to Income % 37.12 31.21 35.85 34.44
RoA% 1.37 1.51 1.45 1.59 out of this 17% was Tier 1 capital. This would help bank by shielding it against
RoE% 9.38 11.57 11.58 13.08 any sudden deterioration of assets. Extra cash can also be used to ramp up the
PAT Margin% 12.65 13.06 12.72 13.73 banking activities.
Spread % 3.25 3.82 3.54 3.77
NPA Coverage% 90.78 88.45 81.10 81.09
NNPAs / Advances% 0.23 0.31 0.51 0.51
Inorganic growth:
FBL is in talk with Catholic Syrian bank for merger. If the merger is successful,
One year performance comparison v/s BSE Bankex
FBL would have more than 1000 branches and would be shielded against any
1 competition in its home state Kerala.
0.8
0.6
0.4
Outlook & Recommendation:
0.2 FBL is set to emerge as a strong private bank through improved performance
0 and growth. FBL has taken various steps to achieve its objective to be the no.1
-0.2
-0.4
bank in Kerala. FBL has shown better performance than the industry in the past
-0.6 and we expect it to continue the trend.
Feder al Bank BSEBANKEX
We hereby initiate coverage on Federal Bank Ltd. and recommend buy rating
Analyst: Amandeep Goraya with a target price of Rs.284 (25% upside) in 12 months implying1.02 x and
Tel No.: +91 22 2281 9012 Mob: 9920104371 0.9 x to adj. Book value per share of FY2010 & FY2011 respectively.
Email: aman.goraya@skpmoneywise.com

SKP Securities Ltd www.skpmoneywise.com Page 1 of 10

 Federal Bank Ltd.

Company Profile:

The Federal Bank Limited (FBL) (the erstwhile Travancore Federal Bank Limited) was incorporated with an authorized capital of
rupees five thousand at Nedumpuram, a place near Tiruvalla in Central Travancore in 28th April of the year 1931 under the
Travancore Company's Act. Shri K.P.Hormis founded the Bank. It started business of auction-chitty and other banking
transactions connected with agriculture and industry. The bank though successful in the earlier periods, suffered set backs and
was on the verge of liquidation. As a largest traditional private sector bank in the country, FBL nurtured for more than seven
decades, gaining the reputation of being an agile, technology savvy and customer friendly bank and mostly built wide network of
branches, reaching out to cover all the major cities of the country.

FBL has its major presence in Kerala.

Out of the total advances as on 30-09-2009, 42% were from Advances

Kerala.
42%

58%

Kerala outside Kerala

Source: Company & SKP Research

FBL gets 51% of its total Deposits as on 30-09-2009 from De pos its
Kerala alone.

49%

51%

Kerala outside Kerala

Source: Company & SKP Research.

Out of the total branches of 642, 388 branches are in Kerala.

Branche s

254

388

Kerala outside Kerala

Source: Company & SKP Research.

During the period of 2006-07, the bank entered into a joint venture agreement with IDBI Ltd & Fortis Insurance International N V
for incorporating a Life Insurance Company under the name of IDBI Fortis Life Insurance Company Ltd. During the year 2007-
08, FBL had opened its Representative office at Abu Dhabi, capital of U.A.E. for the gateway of the bank to the whole of Middle
East and also as an interface between its existing customers of GCC countries and its Branches /Offices in India.

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 Federal Bank Ltd.

Investment Rationale:

1. Better low-cost deposit mix way to maintain margins towards higher levels :
As on 30-09-09, FBL’s CASA was 25%. FBL plans
to expand its CASA deposits to 28% in
approximately period of 3 years. FBL plans to 22% 25%
increase its low cost deposits by way of expansion
of branches and acquiring more customers. Till now
51% of deposits came from Kerala alone (refer
graph on page no.2). FBL is opening its new
branches mainly outside Kerala, this will help to
bring in low cost deposits. 53%

At present out of the total deposits, 22% are the CD CASA Term Deposits CD & Bulk deposits
& Bulk deposits (Rs.5 Cr above). These deposits
command low cost than the retail deposits. Source: Company & SKP Research

At present out of the Total retail deposits, 28% is the NRI deposits. FBL has come up with new initiatives to increase the NRI
deposits. They are:

• NRI branches have representative teams, which give special attention to the NRI customers.
• FBL has representative office in middle-east. This helps to reach more NRI customers and this also helps the
customers to easily deal with the bank, leading to better business for the bank.
• FBL has recently started online money remittance facility. This is expected to serve NRI customers in better way
and attract new customers also.
• New products are being launched for NRI customers as per the amount of deposit, to fulfill the NRI customer’s
needs.
• FBL has tie-up with more than 40 exchange houses / banks for money remittance to India from abroad.

Going forward we expect Deposits to grow at 19% and 22% for FY2010-11FY2011-12 respectively.

50000.00 30%
45000.00 46859.64
24% 25%
40000.00
20% 32198.19 38466.87
35000.00 22% 20%
Groth rate

30000.00 25913.36 19%

Rs. Cr

25000.00 15%
20000.00
10%
15000.00
10000.00
5%
5000.00
0.00 0%
2008 2009 2010E 2011E

Deposits Growth rate

Source: Company & SKP Research

Low cost deposit will help FBL to maintain its margin as well as to lend at competitive rates once the credit off-take reaches
its high growth rate again.
SKP Securities Ltd www.skpmoneywise.com Page 3 of 10
 Federal Bank Ltd.

2. Healthy and high yielding loan book:

FBL’s loan book constitutes 32% and 29% of SME & Retail
loans respectively. These are the high yielding loans. FBL
has very low exposure to sensitive sectors. 32%
39%
As on 30-09-09, loans to commercial real estate and capital
markets were 2.78% and 1.11% of total advances
respectively.
29%
FBL is decreasing its exposure to SME segment, to shield
against any major down turn in the economy.
SME Retail Corporate

Source: Company & SKP Research

• Out of the retail loan, majority of the loans are secured

loans.
• Gold loans form a very relevant category of loans in 27%
Kerala. FBL has 13% gold loans out of total retail loans.
These are high yielding and secured loans.
• Only 1% is the personal loan.
• FBL has experienced that even if some loans slip into 1%
59%
NPA categories, these loans are received after notice is 13%
served to liquidate the collateral asset.

Home Loans Gold Loans Personal Loans Other

Source: Company & SKP Research

Going forward we expect FBL’s loan book to expand by 23% for both years i.e. 2010 and 2011.

40000.00 30%
27% 33954.89
35000.00
23% 25%
30000.00 23%
18% 20%
% Growth

25000.00 27530.99
Rs. Cr.

18904.66
20000.00 22391.88 15%
15000.00
10%
10000.00
5%
5000.00
0.00 0%
2008 2009 2010E 2011E

Advances Growth rate

Source: Company & SKP Research

FBL has internal credit rating system to rate its loans. As on March 2009, 90% of the banks advances are rated from highest
safety to moderate safety range.

SKP Securities Ltd www.skpmoneywise.com Page 4 of 10

 Federal Bank Ltd.

3. Expansion along efficiency improvement:

• FBL plans to take its number of

branches to 677 by the current FY 1000 837
end. New branches are being
800 677 737 727
opened in states outside Kerala. 603 612 617
532
600
• FBL has appointed Boston
Consultancy Group to review 400
existing working methods and to 200
formulate new strategies to
improve the working of the bank. 0
Some of the suggested strategies 2008 2009 2010E 2011E
have been implemented and are
expected to bring in improvement
in short span of time. Branches ATMs

Source: Company & SKP Research

• FBL is recruiting new talent and is concentrating on to bring in the local people in line with branch expansion.
The average employee age reduced from 43 years for 2008 to 42 years as on March 2009.

4. Strong and Huge capital base:

FBL has the highest CAR in the industry. As on March 2009, CAR was 20.14% and Tier 1 capital was 17.5%.

CAR% (March 2009)

25% 20% 20%

20% 17% 16% 16% 15% 14% 14%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Federal Kotak Yes Bank ICICI Bank HDFC BOB PNB SBI
Bank Mahindra
Bank

Source: Companies & SKP Research

Benefits of having high CAR are:

• FBL is shielded against any major impact if there is any unexpected huge deterioration of assets in future.

• This would help the bank to increase its business at high growth rate without the need to raise capital once the
economy revives completely.

• Excess cash on balance sheet can be used to ramp up the business activities.

SKP Securities Ltd www.skpmoneywise.com Page 5 of 10

 Federal Bank Ltd.

5. Inorganic mode of expansion:

FBL is in talk with Catholic Syrian Bank (CSB) for a merger. Final decision over the merger is expected in short period.

Following are the business particulars of FBL and CSB:

As on March 2009 (Rs. Cr.) CSB Federal Bank

Branches 364 612
No. of employees 2676 7253
Business per employee 3.74 7.53
Profit per Branch 0.10 0.82
Profit per employee 0.01 0.07
Capital & Reserves 388 4326
Advances 3683 22391
Deposits 6332 32198
Net Profit 37 500
Cost to income ratio 70% 31%
CRAR% 12% 20%
Source: CSB website, Company & SKP research

Bulls and Bears view over the merger:

Bulls say:

• CSB’s branches are under valued and post merger in a span of 1-2 years FBL can harness the potential in these branches.

• Merger would take the number of branches of FBL to approximately 1000, which would make it the 3rd largest private
bank in India on basis of number of branches.

• Merger would help FBL to become the no. 1 bank in its home state Kerala and would shield FBL from any competition.

• Merger would help FBL to increase its customer base and pan India presence.

Bears Say:

• Major concern is over the duplication of branches. CSB has its major presence in Kerala same as FBL. But the concern
would be only over branches in rural areas, which are about 60 branches. This would be taken care by way of relocation
or closer of branches.

• The value which FBL pays for the take–over will be a concern.

• The time taken by FBL to bring in the synergy post take-over.

• Take-over might decrease the fair value of FBL.

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 Federal Bank Ltd.

Financial performance and valuation:

FBL has consistently given good performance. We expect FBL will continue registering a good show of performance based on
the steps taken from time to time to upgrade the banking operations and improve efficiency.

• Total business for FBL has been growing at the rate of ~20% and going forward we expect it to grow by 21% and
22% for 2010 and 2011.
• Bank is increasing its branch presence and recruiting new employees to tap new markets and to retain and enhance good
relationship with the existing customers.
• It is offering better and more convenient facilities.
• Trained Relationship Manager (RM) teams to provide customers timely and convenient services.
90000.00 25%
22%
80000.00 23% 21%
22% 20%
70000.00
80814.53

GrowthRate
60000.00 65997.86
15%
Rs. Cr.

50000.00 44818.02
40000.00 54590.07
10%
30000.00
20000.00 5%
10000.00
0.00 0%
2008 2009 2010E 2011E

Total business Growth rate

Source: Company & SKP research

• FBL has been successful in growing its interest income at high growth rate. Going forward we expect this part of income to
grow but at slow pace due to high volatility in capital markets and decreased credit off-take due to financial crisis.
• With economy reviving we expect in a span of 2 years FBL would register again high growth in the interest income.
• We expect interest income to grow by 14% and 20% for 2010 and 2011 respectively.
5000.00 4540.90 45%
4500.00 40% 40%
3781.49
4000.00 35%
3500.00 32%

Growth rate
30%
3000.00 2515.44
Rs. Cr

3315.38 25%
2500.00
20% 20%
2000.00
1500.00 14% 15%
1000.00 10%
500.00 5%
0.00 0%
2008 2009 2010E 2011E

Interest Income Grow th rate

Source: Company & SKP research

Life insurance business:

IDBI Fortis Life Insurance Company Ltd, is a joint venture between the IDBI Bank, Federal Bank and Fortis Insurance
International. FBL has 26% share in the JV Company. The JV Company intends to increase the number of its agency branches in
the country to 100 by March 2010, at present it has 33 branches. Similarly, the number of insurance advisors is proposed to be
doubled to 15,000 from 7500 at present. The company having presence in tier-I cities, is in the process of moving out to smaller
cities, to tap the huge potential. The JV Company will also leverage the organic growth of the partner banks which have about
500 branches each to achieve the objective to grow business. Insurance products of the JV company are being distributed at all
branches of FBL.

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 Federal Bank Ltd.

FBL has started FED-e-TRADE. It is a online trading facility which can be accessed from anywhere at any time. As the economy
is reviving, we expect to see huge activity in equity markets. This would help FBL to bring in more income by way of depository
income.
We expect fee based income to grow by 25% and 22% for year 2010 & 2011.
900.00 35%
783.64
800.00 31% 31% 30%
700.00 642.79
25%

Growthrate
600.00 515.78 25%
22%
Rs. Cr.

500.00 20%
394.99
400.00 15%
300.00
10%
200.00
100.00 5%

0.00 0%
2008 2009 2010E 2011E

Fee based income Growth rate

Source: Company & SKP Research

FBL has been able to maintain its cost to income ratio at lower levels than the industry levels, but going forward we expect the
cost to income ratio to go up at around 35% due to the increased operational expenses in line with its expansion plans.
We expect the cost to income ratio to be 35.85% and 34.44% for year 2010 and 2011 respectively.
900.00 40%
35.85%
37.12%
800.00 35%
700.00 31.21% 34.44%
30%
600.00 26%

Growth rate
22% 25%
Rs. Cr.

500.00
20%
400.00 15% 18%
15%
300.00
200.00 468.89 571.46 719.83 851.49 10%

100.00 5%
0.00 0%
2008 2009 2010E 2011E

Operating Expenses Op. Exp.Growth rate Cost to Income rateio

Source: Company & SKP Research

PBV band chart:
400
350
300
250 1.0x
200 0.8x
150 0.6x
100 0.4x
50 0.2x
0
4/1/2004

8/1/2004

12/1/2004

4/1/2005

8/1/2005

12/1/2005

4/1/2006

8/1/2006

12/1/2006

4/1/2007

8/1/2007

12/1/2007

4/1/2008

8/1/2008

12/1/2008

4/1/2009

8/1/2009

Source: Capital line & SKP Research

At present FBL is trading at 0.91x Adj. Book value of FY2008-09. Our target price of Rs.284 is 1.02x and 0.9x to Adj.
Book value per share of FY2010& FY2011 respectively.
We hereby initiate coverage on Federal Bank and recommend buy rating with a target price of Rs.284 /- (25% upside) in 12
months.
SKP Securities Ltd www.skpmoneywise.com Page 8 of 10
 Federal Bank Ltd.

Income Statement Ratios

Rs.Cr. FY08 FY09 FY10E FY11E FY08 FY09 FY10E FY11E
Interest Income 2515.44 3315.38 3781.49 4540.90 Spread analysis (%)
Interest Expenses 1647.42 1999.92 2416.26 2851.88 Yield on advances 10.81% 12.42% 11.25% 11.10%
Net Interest Income 868.02 1315.45 1365.23 1689.03 Yield on investments 7.49% 6.49% 7.72% 8.05%
Fee based Income 90.53 101.28 121.54 139.77 Yield on interest-earning
assets 9.97% 10.53% 10.22% 10.30%
Treasury Income 108.84 134.01 180.91 235.19
Misc. Income 195.62 280.48 340.33 408.68 Cost of deposits 6.42% 6.45% 6.75% 6.59%

Other Income 394.99 515.78 642.79 783.64 Cost of funds 6.72% 6.71% 6.68% 6.53%

Operating Income 1263.01 1831.23 2008.02 2472.66 Spread 3.25% 3.82% 3.54% 3.77%

Staff Cost 271.23 317.45 369.97 447.65 Profitability ratios (%)

Other Operating RoAA 1.37% 1.51% 1.45% 1.59%
Exp. 197.65 254.00 349.85 403.84
Operating ROE 9.38% 11.57% 11.58% 13.08%
Expenses 468.89 571.46 719.83 851.49 NIM 3.44% 4.18% 3.69% 3.83%
Operating Profit 794.12 1259.77 1288.19 1621.18 Operating Profit Margin 27.29% 32.88% 29.12% 30.45%
Provisions 293.97 466.76 394.96 460.98 Net Profit Margin 12.65% 13.06% 12.72% 13.73%
Profit before Taxes 500.15 793.01 893.22 1160.19 Cost to Income 37.12% 31.21% 35.85% 34.44%
Taxes 132.10 292.52 330.49 429.27 Asset Quality (%)
PAT 368.05 500.49 562.73 730.92 Gross NPAs 468.59 589.54 728.15 898.03
Net NPAs 43.20 68.12 137.65 169.77
NPA Coverage 90.18% 87.34% 81.10% 81.09%
Balance Sheet
Net NPA as % to Networth 1.10% 1.59% 2.83% 3.04%
Rs. Cr. FY08 FY09 FY10E FY11E
Delinquency Rate 1.39% 2.58% 2.28% 2.27%
LIABILITIES
Valuation ratios (x)
Capital 171.03 171.03 171.03 171.03
EPS 21.52 29.26 32.90 42.74
Reserves & Surplus 3754.66 4154.84 4687.47 5418.40
BV per share 229.52 251.17 284.07 326.80
Deposits 25913.36 32198.19 38466.87 46859.64 P/E 10.50 7.72 6.87 5.29
Borrowings 791.95 748.94 921.14 1151.43 P/BV 0.98 0.90 0.80 0.69
Other Liabilities 1875.45 1577.86 1769.71 2129.82 Business Ratio
Total 32506.46 38850.86 46016.23 55730.31 Credit Deposit ratio 72.95% 69.54% 71.57% 72.46%
Investment Deposit ratio 38.69% 37.64% 31.80% 31.44%
ASSETS SLR to Investment ratio 77.88% 68.47% 80.53% 81.50%
Balances with RBI 2115.21 1993.91 1969.40 2400.55 CASA ratio 25.09% 24.50% 25.50% 26.50%
Balances with bank 630.28 1443.19 3277.97 3560.00
Cash Flow Statement
Advances 18904.66 22391.88 27530.99 33954.89
FY08 FY09 FY10E FY11E
Investments 10026.59 12118.97 12232.14 14733.38
Fixed Assets 232.84 280.78 342.08 389.29 Net profit before Tax & Provisions 794.12 1259.77 1288.19 1621.18

Other assets 596.87 622.15 663.64 692.19 Cash profit before change in WC 823.09 1302.04 1335.59 1664.28
Total Assets 32506.46 38850.86 46016.23 55730.31 Cash Profit from Operations. -1466.72 1233.90 2345.24 1365.69
Taxes paid -59.15 -315.80 -330.49 -429.27
Net Cash flow from operating -1525.86 918.11 2014.74 936.42
Net Cash flow from investing -137.47 -155.76 -115.06 -103.68
Net Cash flow from Financing 2095.68 -70.74 -85.52 -85.52
Net Increase/(decrease) in Cash 432.35 691.61 1814.17 713.18
Cash and Equivalent as on 1st
April 2313.14 2745.49 3437.09 5247.37
Cash and Equivalent as on 31st
March 2745.49 3437.09 5247.37 5960.55

SKP Securities Ltd www.skpmoneywise.com Page 9 of 10

 Federal Bank Ltd.

The above analysis and data are based on last available prices and not official closing rates. SKP Research is also available on Bloomberg, Thomson First Call & Investext Myiris, Moneycontrol and ISI Securities

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INB/INF: 230707532, BSE INB: 010707538, CDSL IN-DP-CDSL-132-2000, DPID: 021800, NSDL IN-DP-NSDL: 222-2001, DP ID: IN302646, ARN: 0006, NCDEX: 00715, MCX: 31705, MCX-SX: INE 260707532

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