Βραχνός, Μοντέλα Εκθετικών Γραφημάτων PDF

PANEPISTHMIO PATRWN
TMHMA MAJHMATIKWN
METAPTUQIAKO PROGRAMMA SPOUDWN:

MAJHMATIKA TWN UPOLOGISTWN KAI
UPOLOGISTIKH NOHMOSUNH
DIPLWMATIKH ERGASIA
P P
D M
ROSARMOGH, ROSOMOIWSH
E T
KAI IAGNWSH ONTELWN
G
KJETIKWN UQAIWN
RAFHMATWN
QRHSTOS I. BRAQNOS
Epiblpwn
MWUSHS A. MPOUNTOURIDHS
Anaplhrwt Kajhght
PATRA, IOUNIOS 2009

Stou gone mou,
Eustrata kai Iwnnh.
Euqariste
Ja jela, prin ap thn arq th parosa diplwmatik ergasa , na epishm-
nw kai na euqaristsw ek bajwn tou anjrpou , pou o kajna me ton dik
tou trpo, ete jewrhtik ete praktik, me bojhsan kat th dirkeia th
suggraf th .
Arqik anafrw ton epiblponta kajhght mou k. Mwus Mpountourdh. H

sunergasa ma tso se proptuqiak so kai se metaptuqiak eppedo uprxe
pragmatik idanik. H oloklrwsh tou metaptuqiako mou diplmato eid-
keush , me th sugkekrimnh diplwmatik ergasa, gine antikeimenik efikt
lgw tou anidiotelo endiafronto tou k. Mpountourdh, all kai th mh-
sh mou sto sugkekrimno kai sqetik anexerenhto qro twn Majhmatikn,
mia epistmh , pou pollo njrwpoi jewron koresmnh, all telik den e-
nai.
'Ena ek bajwn euqarist sthn oikognei mou kai pio sugkekrimna stou
gone mou, Eustrata kai Iwnnh, pou qwr auto , me apl kai lit lgia, de
ja briskmoun sthn euqristh jsh na sa parajtw tra aut ti lxei .
Ousiastik, epiplon, uprxe kai h bojeia th uploiph oikogneia mou,
pou me endiafron agkliasan kti pou pragmatik agapw: ta Majhmatik.
En suneqea, ja jela na anafrw tou kajhght mou sto Panepistmio Pa-

trn, k. Dhmtrio Kabbada kai k. Flippo Alebzo, gia thn axiolghsh th
ergasa mou. Oi parathrsei tou sgoura epferan mia pio oloklhrwmnh
kai swst reuna sto sugkekrimno toma.
En katakledi, ofelw na meglo euqarist sto flo kai sundelfo Miqal

Epitropkh, didaktorik foitht tou tmmato Majhmatikn tou Panepisth-
mou Patrn. H anidiotel arwg kai oi parathrsei tou, son afor ton
trpo suggraf th ergasa , uprxan pol ousiastik .
Perieqmena
Eisagwg 1
1 Montla Ekjetikn Tuqawn Grafhmtwn Markov 3

1.1 H Logik twn Montlwn Ekjetikn Tuqawn
Grafhmtwn . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
1.1.1 Genik Plasio Kataskeu Montlwn . . . . . . . . . 5
1.2 H Genik Morf twn Montlwn Ekjetikn
Tuqawn Grafhmtwn . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
1.2.1 Periorismo Paramtrwn . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
1.3 Upojsei Exartsewn . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
1.3.1 Grafmata Bernoulli . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
1.3.2 Duadik Montla . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
1.3.3 Tuqaa Grafmata Markov . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
1.3.4 Dom Exartsewn me Metablht pnw stou
Kmbou . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
1.3.5 Pio Polploke Upojsei Exrthsh . . . . . . . . . 18
1.4 Ektmhsh . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
1.4.1 Ektmhsh Yeudo-Pijanofneia . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
1.4.2 Ektmhsh Monte Carlo Mgisth Pijanofneia gia thn
Alusda Markov (MCMCMLE) . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
1.5 Ne Prodiagraf . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
1.5.1 Enallassmena k-Astria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
1.5.2 Enallassmena k-Trgwna . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
1.5.3 Enallassmene k-2-Diadrom . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
1.5.4 Enallaktik Isodname Parametrikopoisei . . . . . 28
1.5.5 Ne Prodiagraf gia Kateujunmena Grafmata . . . 29
2 To Dktuo Florentine 31
2.1 Exerenhsh Diktou . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
2.2 Prosarmog Montlou Ekjetiko Tuqaou
Grafmato . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
2.3 Statistik Diktou . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36
2.4 Prosomowsh Diktou . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
2.5 Prosarmog Montlou . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
2.6 Ekfulism kai Diagnwstik . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
3 To Dktuo FMH 43
3.1 Exerenhsh Diktou . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
Grafmato . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
3.3 Anagnrish Ekfulismo tou Montlou . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54
3.4 Mh Ekfulismna Montla Duadik Exrthsh . . . . . . . . 58
i
3.5 Poithta Prosarmog . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
4 Ta Dktua IPRED kai SWPAT 67

4.1 Exerenhsh Diktwn . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67
4.2 Prosarmog Montlwn Ekjetikn Tuqawn
Grafhmtwn . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76
5 Parrthma 81
5.1 To Peribllon R . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81
5.1.1 Genik Parousash . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81
5.1.2 Pakta . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83
5.1.3 Diansmata . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83
Bibliografa 86
ii
Katlogo Sqhmtwn
1.1 Sqhmatismo kai parmetroi gia ta montla tuqawn grafhm-
twn Markov. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
1.2 (A-H) Sqhmatismo gia na montlo qarakthristikn Markov
montlo koinwnik epilog grafmato Markov. . . . . . 17
1.3 2-, 3- kai 4-trgwna. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
1.4 2-, 3- kai 4-anexrthte 2-diadrom . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
1.5 Kateujunmena 2-, 3- kai 4-trgwna. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
2.1 To dktuo Flomarriage. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
2.2 H prosomowsh tou prosarmosmnou diktou Flomarriage. . . 39
2.3 Dignwsh poithta prosarmog . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
3.1 To dktuo FMH qwr ti memonwmne koruf . . . . . . . . . 45
3.2 To dktuo FMH me ti memonwmne koruf . . . . . . . . . . . 46
3.3 To dktuo FMH (qwr ti memonwmne koruf ) me ti koru-
f qrwmatismne anloga th bajmologa twn majhtn. . . 47
3.4 Sgkrish katanom bajmn metax twn diktuakn dedomnwn
FMH kai tou deterou montlou (model 2). . . . . . . . . . . 54
3.5 Diagnwstik MCMC tou trtou montlou. . . . . . . . . . . . 56
3.6 Sgkrish montlwn. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62
3.7 Sgkrish trignwn se 100 prosomoisei tou montlou 4 (i-
stgramma) kai twn arqikn dedomnwn (kkkino blo ). . . . 63
3.8 Poithta prosarmog gia bajmo tou montlou 4. . . . . . . 64
3.9 Poithta prosarmog tou montlou 4 gia thn katanom twn
akmiak diamoirasmnwn etarwn kai thn katanom th gewdai-
tik apstash . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66
4.1 To dktuo IPRED. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69
4.2 To dktuo IPRED qrwmatismno anloga me to qarakthristik
tou tpou twn drntwn. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70
4.3 To dktuo IPRED qrwmatismno anloga me to qarakthristik
twn topojetsewn twn drntwn. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70
4.4 To dktuo SWPAT. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73
4.5 To dktuo SWPAT qrwmatismno anloga me to qarakthristi-
k tou tpou twn drntwn. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74
4.6 To dktuo SWPAT qrwmatismno anloga me to qarakthristi-
k twn topojetsewn twn drntwn. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74
iii
1
Eisagwg
H parosa diplwmatik ergasa brsketai ston eurtero qro th majhmati-
k statistik jewra twn grafhmtwn. Krio stqo ma , pw anaf-
rei kai o ttlo , enai h montelopohsh grafhmtwn, me aptero skop thn
prosarmog, prosomowsh kai dignwsh autn msw montlwn ekjetikn tu-
qawn grafhmtwn.
To prto keflaio dnei mia sunoptik parousash th diatpwsh tou probl-

mato kai th jewra twn montlwn twn ekjetikn tuqawn grafhmtwn. H
basik ida enai na jewrsoume w tuqae metablht tou dunato desmo
metax twn kmbwn en dojnto grafmato . H genik morf en mont-
lou ekjetik tuqaou grafmato kajorzetai ap kpoie upojsei sqetik
me ti exartsei metax autn twn tuqawn metablhtn. Parousizoume k-
poie diaforetik upojsei exrthsh kai ta antstoiqa montla, pw ta
grafhmta Bernoulli, ta duadik - anexrthta kai ta tuqaa grafmata Mar-
kov. Epsh , exetzoume thn enswmtwsh twn qarakthristikn, pou mporon
na qoun oi kmboi, se montla koinwnik epilog , dhlad, se periptsei
pou oi sundsei tou grafmato mporon na problyoun ta qarakthristik
twn kmbwn. Sunoyzoume kpoie kainorgie upojsei exrthsh , pou enai
poluploktere twn prtwn ttoiwn upojsewn th sqetik bibliografa .
Suzhtome ti diadikase th statistik ektmhsh , sumperilambanomnwn
twn nwn mejdwn gia thn ektmhsh th mgisth pijanofneia Monte Carlo.
Tlo , parousizoume ti ne prodiagraf gia montla ekjetikn tuqawn
grafhmtwn, pou qoun protenei oi Snijders et al. (2006) [38], oi opoe bel-
tinoun shmantik ta apotelsmata th prosarmog empeirikn dedomnwn
gia ekjetik montla omoiogenn tuqawn grafhmtwn Markov. Epiplon, oi
ne aut prodiagraf ma bohjon na apofgoume to prblhma tou sqedn-
ekfulismo, pou suqn paremblletai sth diadikasa th prosarmog mont-
lwn ekjetikn tuqawn grafhmtwn Markov, idiatera tan aut prorqontai
ap empeirik dedomna, pou qoun uyhl bajm metabatikthta . H melth
mia ttoia na statistik me uyhlterh txh metabatikthta epitrpei
thn ektmhsh twn paramtrwn twn montlwn twn ekjetikn grafhmtwn se
poll (all qi le ) periptsei , sti opoe diaforetik ja tan adnato
na ektimhjon oi parmetroi twn montlwn twn omoiogenn grafhmtwn Mar-
kov.
Sto detero, trto kai ttarto keflaio th ergasa efarmzoume ti parap-

nw mejdou , antistoqw , gia tre analsei empeirikn dedomnwn:
2
1. To dktuo Florentine.
2. To dktuo Faux Magnolia High.
3. Ta dktua IPRED kai SWPAT.
Se aut ta keflaia, parousizoume ti diadikase th prosarmog , proso-

mowsh kai dignwsh me parjesh twn antstoiqwn entoln, qrhsimopoi-
nta ta pakta statnetermg kai sna, ta opoa douleoun sto peribllon
tou paktou elejerou logismiko R.
Tlo , sto parrthma th ergasa dnoume mia sntomh eisagwg sto peribl-
lon R kai se kpoie genik entol auto.
1 MONT
ELA EKJETIK
WN TUQA
IWN GRAFHM
ATWN MARKOV 3
1 Montla Ekjetikn Tuqawn Grafhmtwn

Markov
1.1 H Logik twn Montlwn Ekjetikn Tuqawn
Grafhmtwn
Sto keflaio aut ja akoloujsoume ti ergase twn Robins et al. (2007a)

[30], (2007b) [31], gia na dsoume mia genik kai sunoptik parousash twn
montlwn twn ekjetikn tuqawn grafhmtwn.
Onomzoume parathromeno dktuo ta empeirik dedomna en grafmato

diktou, ta opoa o ereunht qei sugkentrsei kai endiafretai na montelo-
poisei. Basik, ttoia empeirik dedomna sqhmatzoun na (koinwnik) d-
ktuo gia kpoio pljo drntwn, oi opooi sundontai metax tou me k-
poiou desmo . Profan , na ttoio dktuo anaparstatai ap na grfhma
me kmbou tou drnte kai akm txa tou desmo twn drntwn. Kje
parathromeno dktuo jewretai ti pragmatopoietai ap na pijan snolo
diktwn me kpoia shmantik qarakthristik parmoia (toulqiston gia ton
dio arijm drntwn) kai ti enai to apotlesma kpoiwn stoqastikn diadika-
sin, ti opoe mpore na mh gnwrzoume. Me lla lgia, to parathromeno
dktuo antimetwpzetai san mia sugkekrimnh dom en pljou desmn, pou
lambnontai ap na meglo snolo anlogwn pijann domn. Genik, den
xroume poie stoqastik diadikase dhmiorghsan to parathromeno dktuo
kai o stqo ma gia th diatpwsh en montlou enai na mporsoume na pro-
tenoume kpoie alhjofane kai jewrhtik apodekt upojsei gia aut
ti diadikase .
Gia pardeigma, na ap ta endiafronta zhtmata, enai na brome en sto

parathromeno dktuo uprqoun perisstera ligtera shmantik domik qa-
rakthristik ap aut pou ja perimname se na tuqao grfhma. Upojtoume
ti mporome na eklboume aut ta qarakthristik w apotelsmata th dr-
sh kpoiwn topikn koinwnikn diadikasin. Gia pardeigma, mporome na
rwtsoume -pw oi Moreno & Jennings kanan to 1938 se mia ap ti prte
efarmog th statistik sta koinwnik dktua [19- en to parathromeno
dktuo frei mia isqur tsh gia amoibaithta, megalterh kai pra ap thn tu-
qaa katanom twn kateujunmenwn desmn, en auto sqhmatzontan entel
sthn tqh. Me lla lgia, tenoun oi drnte tou parathromenou diktou
na sqhmatzoun amoibae (antapodidmene ) epilog sqsewn? Ed, to do-
mik qarakthristik (oi amoibaoi desmo) enai to apotlesma mia koinwnik
diadikasa (pw , p.q., ta toma epilgoun na antapoddoun ti epilog twn
llwn atmwn). 'Etsi, san na apl pardeigma, mporome na jewrsoume na
montlo stoqastiko diktou me do paramtrou , mia pou ekfrzei thn tsh
gia tuqaou desmo kai epiprsjeth tsh gia amoibaou (antapodidmenou )
desmo .
1 MONT
ELA EKJETIK
WN TUQA
IWN GRAFHM
ATWN MARKOV 4
Genik, ta up suzthsh domik qarakthristik ma bohjon na sqhmatsoume

th morf tou montlou. H upjesh th amoibaa diadikasa ma odhge na
protenoume na montlo, sto opoo o dekth tou epipdou th amoibaithta
enai mia parmetro tou montlou. H upjesh epsh antanakl thn prosdo-
ka na gnwrsoume poio edo diktwn enai pio pijan. 'Ena statistik montlo
en diktou gia na dedomno snolo drntwn antistoiqe mia pijanthta se
la ta pijan dktua me auto tou drnte . Gia pardeigma, dedomnou ti
h amoibaithta twn desmn enai na suqn parathromeno qarakthristik se
dktua fila , na kal montlo enai pijan na upojtei ti ta dktua me a-
moibaithta enai pio pijan kai ti dktua qwr amoibaithta enai pio apjana.
'Opw anaframe, anaparistome ta dktua san (mh kateujunmena) graf-

mata kmbwn kai akmn. Gia na dedomno montlo, to snolo twn kmbwn
jewretai stajer. To fsma twn pijann diktwn kai h pijanthta emfni-
s tou sto montlo anaparstatai ap mia katanom pijanottwn pnw sto
snolo lwn twn pijann grafhmtwn me ton dio arijm kmbwn. Se autn
thn katanom twn grafhmtwn, ta grafmata me uyhl eppeda amoibaithta
enai pijan na qoun megalterh pijanthta ap ti ta grafmata me asjen
amoibaithta, me ti akribe pijanthte na exartntai ap thn tim twn sqe-
tikn paramtrwn, pw h parmetro th amoibaithta . Shmeinoume ti
to parathromeno dktuo enai na sugkekrimno grfhma msa se autn thn
katanom kai, tsi, qei mia sugkekrimnh pijanthta emfnish .
Bbaia, ex arq , de gnwrzoume poi tim twn paramtrwn prpei na qrhsi-

mopoisoume gia na prosdiorsoume ti pijanthte twn grafhmtwn sthn
katanom. O stqo ma enai na brome ti kaltere tim (ektimnta
ti paramtrou tou montlou), qrhsimopointa to parathromeno dktuo w
odhg. Smfwna me to basik kritrio th megsth pijanofneia , epil-

goume ti tim twn paramtrwn me ttoio trpo ste o pio pijan bajm
amoibaithta na enai aut , o opoo lambnei qra sto parathromeno d-
ktuo. En to montlo qei parmetro amoibaithta (orismnh na enai sh me
mhdn, tan oi amoibaoi desmo emfanzontai tuqaa) kai en uprqoun pollo
amoibaoi desmo sto parathromeno dktuo, tte to montlo, pou apotele
kal prosarmog sta dedomna w pro ton bajm amoibaithta , ja qei
mia jetik parmetro amoibaithta . En mporsoume na ektimsoume thn pa-

rmetro amoibaithta gia to parathromeno dktuo kai emaste sgouroi ti
aut h parmetro enai jetik, tte mporome na sumpernoume ti uprqei
perissterh amoibaithta sto parathromeno dktuo ap aut pou ja perim-
name na uprqei sto entel tuqao dktuo.
'Otan qoume orsei thn katanom pijanottwn se lo to snolo twn grafhm-

twn me ton dio arijm kmbwn, mporome epsh na sqedisoume grafmata,
pou lambnontai tuqaa ap thn katanom, smfwna me ti antstoiqe pijan-
1 MONT
ELA EKJETIK
WN TUQA
IWN GRAFHM
ATWN MARKOV 5
tht tou kai mporome epsh na sugkrnoume ta grafmata aut me to

parathromeno dktuo, anaforik me opoiodpote llo qarakthristik ma
endiafrei. En to montlo jewretai mia kal prosarmog gia ta dedomna
ma , tte ta grafmata, pou lambnontai deigmatolhptik, ja moizoun me to
parathromeno se sqsh me poll diaforetik apyei . Se autn thn idanik
perptwsh, mporome na upojsoume ti ta montelopoihmna domik fainmena
ja mporosan na exhgsoun thn andush tou diktou. Epsh , mporome na
exetsoume ti idithte twn grafhmtwn, pou lambnontai deigmatolhptik,
gia na katanosoume th fsh twn diktwn, pou enai pio pijan na emfani-
ston ktw ap aut ta fainmena.
San pardeigma, a jewrsoume th sqsh th fila se mia sqolik txh. To

parathromeno dktuo enai to dktuo, gia to opoo qoume metrsei ti fili-
k sqsei (metax twn majhtn th txh ). Uprqoun poll pijan dktua,
pou ja mporosan na qoun parathrhje se autn th sugkekrimnh txh. E-
xetzoume thn parathromenh filik dom sthn txh sto plasio lwn twn
dunatn domn fila se autn thn txh. Merik dom enai pio pijan ap
kpoie lle kai to snolo lwn twn pijann domn me kpoie upojsei
gia ti antstoiqe pijantht enai mia katanom pijanottwn grafhmtwn.
Topojetome to parathromeno dktuo msa se autn thn katanom, ant na
to sugkrnoume me lla dktua fila llwn sqolikn txewn. (Bebaw , to
montlo ma gia to parathromeno dktuo mpore na enai na kal montlo
kai gia lle sqolik txei , all den enai aut to jma ed).
A parathrsoume ti h upjesh, pou knoume, enai ti to dktuo dhmiourge-

tai ap mia stoqastik diadikasa, sthn opoa oi sqesiako desmo emfanzontai
me trpou , pou mpore na diamorfnontai ap thn parousa thn apousa twn
llwn desmn (kai pijann ap ta qarakthristik twn kmbwn). Me lla l-
gia, to dktuo gnetai antilhpt w na autoorganomeno ssthma sqesiakn
desmn. Ousiastik, isqurizmaste ti uprqoun topik koinwnik diadika-
se , pou pargoun ti duadik sqsei kai ti aut oi koinwnik diadikase
mporon na exartntai ap to geniktero koinwnik peribllon. Gia pardeig-
ma, mporome na upojsoume ti oi drnte me parmoia qarakthristik enai
pio pijan na dhmiourgsoun desmo fila (katstash pou onomzetai o-
moiofila) ti, en duo mh sundedemnoi drnte sundontai me nan trto
drnta, enai pijan na dhmiourgsoun na desm fila kai metax tou (ka-
tstash pou onomzetai metabatikthta). Parathrome ti epiprsjeta me
thn upjesh th stoqastikthta , h w tra perigraf ma uponoetai ti
enai epsh mia dunamik perigraf qronik metaballmenh.
1.1.1 Genik Plasio Kataskeu Montlwn
Deqmeno thn parxh en montlou ekjetiko tuqaou grafmato gia -

na koinwnik dktuo, o ereunht prpei, sth sunqeia, na akoloujsei ta
1 MONT
ELA EKJETIK
WN TUQA
IWN GRAFHM
ATWN MARKOV 6
paraktw pnte bmata. En to endiafron th reuna brsketai sto teli-

k bma th ektmhsh kai th ermhnea twn paramtrwn, sta prohgomena
tssera bmata o ereunht knei kpoie sugkekrimne epilog gia thn
anlush twn dedomnwn. Kai pw ja dome paraktw, sta prta bmata
mporome na entopsoume kpoia ap ta palaitera montla msa sth genik-
terh kathgora twn montlwn ekjetikn tuqawn grafhmtwn.
Bma Prto: Oi desmo w tuqae metablht
Aut to bma emperiqei na stoqastik plasio gia thn anlush grafhm-

twn me stajer snolo kmbwn. Upojtonta ti kje desm tou diktou
jewretai w mia tuqaa metablht, den ennoome ti oi njrwpoi sqhmatzoun
koinwnik sqsei me ton dio trpo: kpoie sqsei mpore na enai pio pija-
n . Antjeta, apl lme ti de gnwrzoume ta pnta gia ton sqhmatism twn
sqsewn, ti to montlo ma den prkeitai na knei tleie nteterministik
problyei kai ti, epomnw , ja uprqei kpoio stoqastik jrubo k-
poia lleiyh kanonikthta , pou de ja mporome na exhgsoume ikanopoihtik.
Jewrnta tou diktuako desmo w tuqae metablht , mnei na xanajumh-

jome kpoiou basiko sqetiko sumbolismo . Gia kje i kai j, pou enai
diakrit mlh en snolou N ap n drnte , qoume mia tuqaa metablht
Yij , pou Yij = 1 en uprqei desm ap to drnta i sto drnta j kai pou
Yij = 0 en den uprqei ttoio desm . Sugkekrimenopointa to yij w thn
parathromenh tim th metablht Yij , stw Y o pnaka lwn twn metablh-
tn kai y o pnaka twn parathromenwn desmn, dhlad, to parathromeno
dktuo. Bebaw , to y mpore epsh na ermhneuje san na grfhma sto s-
nolo twn kmbwn N , me to snolo twn akmn na kajorzetai ap ta zeugria
(i, j), gia ta opoa yij = 1. To Y mpore na enai kateujunmeno (opte to
Yij enai diaforetik ap to Yji ) mh kateujunmeno (opte Yij = Yji kai
oi do metablht enai oi die ). Mpore epsh oi desmo tou y na parnoun
tim , all sthn parosa ergasa ja perioristome mno sthn perptwsh twn
duadikn desmn.
Bma Detero: H upjesh exrthsh kai h tuqaa sunfeia metax twn di-
ktuakn metablhtn
H upjesh aut enswmatnei ti topik koinwnik diadikase , pou upot-

jetai ti dhmiourgon tou desmo tou diktou. Gia pardeigma, oi desmo
mpore na upotejon ti enai anexrthtoi o na ap ton llo, pw , p.q.,
tan oi njrwpoi sundontai metax tou anexrthta ap tou lllou koi-
nwniko desmo pou qoun. Aut den enai sunjw mia pol realistik
upjesh. Sto pardeigma th sqolik txh , pou lambnoun qra diadika-
se amoibaithta , en o majht A sumpaje to majht B, tte jewretai
arket pijan ti kai o majht B ja sumpaje to majht A, kti to opoo
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sunepgetai mia morf duadik exrthsh . Oi desmo mpore epsh na e-

xartntai ap ta qarakthristik twn drntwn, pw , gia pardeigma, tan
uprqoun pijan omoiofilik epidrsei sth sqolik txh. Parathrome ti
kje mia ap aut ti diadikase mpore na anaparastaje ap na stoiqei-
de (mikr klmaka ) grfhma: gia pardeigma, ap mia duda, pou apotele
nan amoibao (antapodidmeno) desm ap na desm metax duo koritsin
(tou idou qarakthristiko twn drntwn).
Bma Trto: H upjesh exrthsh kai h idiaterh morf tou montlou
Mpore na apodeiqje ti kpoie kal orismne upojsei exrthsh sune-

pgontai mia idiaterh klsh montlwn (to jerhma Hammersley-Clifford [2]).
Kje parmetro antistoiqe se na sqhmatism sto dktuo, dhlad, se na
mikr uposnolo ap pijano desmo tou diktou (kai/ qarakthristik
twn drntwn). Auto oi sqhmatismo enai ta domik qarakthristik pou ma
endiafroun (p.q., oi amoibaoi desmo). To montlo tte anaparist mia ka-
tanom tuqawn grafhmtwn, ta opoa upotjetai ti dhmiourgontai ap ti
topik dom , pou anaparstantai ap tou sqhmatismo . Gia pardeigma,
na apl desm enai na sqhmatism , pw mpore na enai kai na a-
moibao desm (se na kateujunmeno grfhma), mia metabatik trida, na
2-astri k.o.k. Oi parmetroi, pou sqetzontai me thn parousa kje en ap
auto tou sqhmatismo sto parathromeno grfhma, mporon na sumperi-
lambnontai sto montlo.
Bma Ttarto: Aplopohsh twn paramtrwn msw omoiogneia llwn pe-
riorismn
Gia na orsoume na montlo xekjara, prpei na meisoume ton arijm twn

paramtrwn. Aut suqn epitugqnetai epibllonta kpoiou periorismo
omoiogneia . Sthn pragmatikthta, exetzoume en kpoie parmetroi pr-
pei na exiswjon na susqetiston alli . Gia pardeigma, sunjw pro-
tenetai mia parmetro gia to fainmeno th amoibaithta pnw se lo to
dktuo, upojtonta ti oi parmetroi amoibaithta gia kje pijan amoibao
(antapodidmeno) desm enai le se . Pio ktw, ja milsoume gia tou pe-
riorismo twn paramtrwn se sugkekrimna paradegmata montlwn
Bma Pmpto: Ektmhsh kai ermhnea twn paramtrwn tou montlou
Bebaw h ektmhsh kai h ermhnea sunjw gnontai sto plasio sugkekri-

mnwn efarmogn th reuna kai, tan ja qoume ftsei se aut to bma,
ennoetai ti ta prohgomena tssera bmata qoun dh pragmatopoihje, -
stw kai rrhta. Aut to bma periplketai en h dom exrthsh enai po-
lplokh, pw pijan qreizetai na enai gia kje realistik montlo. 'E-
qonta upologsei ti ektimsei twn paramtrwn, kaj kai ti ektimsei
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th abebaithta , mporome na qrhsimopoisoume to statistik montlo tou

dktuo, pou qei kataskeuaste ap sugkekrimne upojsei exrthsh kai
pou qei ektimhje ap ta parathromena diktuak dedomna. Gia pardeigma,
mporome na diereunsoume to pedo lwn twn pijann diktwn, pou probl-
pontai ap to montlo, na bma, pou mpore na bohjsei sthn axiolghsh
tou montlou, kai mporome na bgloume sumpersmata gia ti paramtrou
tou montlou. P.q., mporome na sumpernoume en opoiadpote parmetro
tou montlou enai mh mhdenik kai, me ton trpo aut en o antstoiqo
sqhmatism emfanzetai sto parathromeno grfhma, se megaltero mi-
krtero bajm ap ti ja perimname sthn tqh, dojntwn twn timn twn
llwn paramtrwn pw ja suzhtsoume paraktw to jma th ektmhsh
twn paramtrwn.
1.2 H Genik Morf twn Montlwn Ekjetikn

Tuqawn Grafhmtwn
Ta montla ekjetikn tuqawn grafhmtwn qoun thn akloujh morf:

! ( )
1 X
Pr(Y = y) = exp A gA (y) (1)

A
pou (i) to jroisma enai pnw se lou tou sqhmatismo A, (ii) A enai
h parmetro , pou antistoiqe sto sqhmatism A (kai enai mh mhdenik mno
en la ta zeugria twn metablhtn sto A upoteje ti enai up sunjkh
1
exarthmna ), (iii) gA (y) =
yij A yij enai h diktuak statistik, pou anti-
Q
stoiqe sto sqhmatism A, gA (y) = 1, en o sqhmatism parathretai sto

dktuo y, kai enai 0 alli 2 , (iv) to enai mia posthta kanonikopohsh ,
pou exasfalzei ti h (1) enai mia katllhlh katanom pijanottwn.
'Ola ta montla ekjetikn tuqawn grafhmtwn enai th morf th exsw-

sh (1), h opoa perigrfei mia genik katanom pijanottwn grafhmtwn n
kmbwn. H pijanthta paratrhsh opoioudpote idiaterou grafmato y
se autn thn katanom ddetai ap thn parapnw exswsh kai h pijanthta
aut enai anexrthth kai ap ti statistik gA (y) sto dktuo y kai ap
ti difore mh mhdenik paramtrou A gia lou tou sqhmatismo A
sto montlo. Oi sqhmatismo mpore na perilambnoun amoibaou (antapodi-
dmenou ) desmo , metabatik tride k.o.k., tsi ste to montlo na ma
epitrpei na exetsoume mia poikila pijann domikn kanonikottwn.
Giat loipn oi upojsei exrthsh enai shmantik ed? Oi upojsei

exrthsh sunepgwntai thn epilog diaforetikn tpwn sqhmatismn, sqeti-
1
Dhlad, up sunjkh sto uploipo grfhma.
2
Grfoume gA (y) ant gA , gia na upenjumsoume ti oi statistik sqetzontai me to
grfhma y.
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kn me to montlo. Parathrome ti ap thn parapnw perptwsh (ii), oi

parmetroi enai mhdn, opotedpote oi metablht sto sqhmatism enai up
sunjkh exartmene h ma me thn llh. Me lla lgia, oi mnoi sqhmatismo,
pou enai sqetiko me to montlo, enai auto, stou opoou loi oi pijano
desmo sto sqhmatism enai amoibaw exartmenoi o na ap ton llo.3
Axzei na parathrsoume ti, en na snolo pijann akmn anaparist -

na sqhmatism sto montlo, tte h exswsh (1) sunepgetai ti opoiodpote
uposnolo pijann akmn enai epsh na sqhmatism . 'Etsi, oi die oi
akm enai pnta na sqhmatism , pw ja dexoume paraktw.
Epomnw , h upjesh exrthsh enai krsimh gia ton periorism twn pijann
sqhmatismn sto montlo. Ja dsoume kpoia sugkekrimna paradegmata
paraktw. 'Ena sqhmatism A anafretai se na uposnolo metablhtn,
pou apotelontai ap desmo , kai antistoiqe se mia mikr diktuak upodom.
Gia pardeigma, en se na kateujunmeno dktuo efarmsoume thn upjesh
duadik exrthsh , petai ti oi parmetroi amoibaithta ja sumperilhfjon
sto montlo. Se autn thn perptwsh, na sqhmatism sto montlo enai
to snolo twn metablhtn {Y12 , Y21 }, na llo enai to snolo {Y13 , Y31 }
k.o.k., me kje duda na ddei to dik th sqhmatism. Profan , gia kje
nan ap auto tou sqhmatismo , en kai oi duo desmo enai parnte sto
parathromeno grfhma, blpoume nan amoibao (antapodidmeno) desm kai,
gia aut, o sqhmatism anaparist na tpo diktuak upodom , pou mpore
na parathrhje sto grfhma y. Mporome na skeftome autn to sqhmatism
diagrammatik san thn dia thn upodom, dhlad, ton amoibao (antapodidme-
no) desm.
All bebaw , den uprqei kama egghsh ti le oi pijan akm se na do-

jn sqhmatism ja enai parose se na pragmatopoiomeno grfhma y kai,
gia aut, ja parathrsoume kpoie ap aut ti pijan upodom , all qi
lle . Meriko desmo mpore na enai amoibaoi (antapodidmenoi), lloi qi.
Oi sqhmatismo anapariston pijan apotelsmata. Ap thn llh meri, h
statistik tou grafmato , gA (y), ma lei en o sqhmatism A parathre-
tai pragmatik sto dktuo y. Gia nan amoibao (antapodidmeno) sqhmatism
A, aut h statistik apl ma lei en uprqoun amoibaoi (antapodidmenoi)
desmo metax twn sqetikn zeugarin twn kmbwn qi.
Mporome na skeftome ti ta grafmata sthn katanom, dhmiourgontai ap

auto tou dunhtik epikaluptmenou sqhmatismo . Gia pardeigma, a u-
3
Ap perisstero teqnik poyh , oi upojsei exrthsh mporon na anaparasta-
jon ap na grfhma exrthsh , to opoo prwtoparousisthke ap tou Frank & Strauss
(1986) [8, akoloujnta thn prosggish, pou perigraye o Besag to (1974) [2. Oi sqh-
matismo A anaparastontai ap ti klke tou grafmato exrthsh . Oi endiafermenoi
mporon na anatrxoun sthn ergasa twn Robins kai Pattison tou (2005) [29.
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pojsoume ti uprqei amoibaithta sth diadikasa, pou dhmiourge to dktuo.

An ja mporosame na parathrsoume thn exlixh tou diktou kai an to dktuo
xekinose me lge amoibae akm , ja mporosame na anamnoume na dome
perissterou amoibaou desmo na anadontai me to prasma tou qrnou.
'Omw , skeptmenoi kat autn ton trpo, qreizetai na qoume upyh ma
ti, kaj na idiatero desm anadetai dia msou mia fantastik dia-
dikasa dhmiourga , h parousa tou mpore na ephresei llou pijano
geitoniko desmo . Opte, uprqei mia uponoomenh dunamik kai autoor-
ganomenh diadikasa se autn thn upojetik kataskeu: kaj na desm
anadetai exafanzetai, lloi geitoniko desmo enai pijann na anadontai
na exafanzontai parmoia kai mpore na mhn uprqei kanna ousiastik t-
lo se autn th suneqizmenh stoqastik diadikasa. Entotoi , oi idiatere
tim twn paramtrwn ja ephresoun th suqnthta paratrhsh tou antstoi-
qou sqhmatismo. En h parmetro enai meglh kai jetik, perimnoume na
parathrsoume ton antstoiqo sqhmatism se grafmata th katanom (1)
pio suqn ap ti en h parmetro tan 0. Dhlad, en mia parmetro amoi-
baithta enai meglh kai jetik, ja perimname na dome pollo amoibaou
(antapodidmenou ) desmo sto parathromeno dktuo. Omow , tan mia pa-
rmetro enai meglh kai arnhtik, perimnoume na dome to sqhmatism (twn
amoibawn desmn) sqetik ligtero suqn ap ti en h parmetro tan 0.
Epeid h exswsh (1) perilambnei nan ekjetik ro sto dexi mlo th ,

ttoie katanom anafrontai san montla ekjetikn tuqawn grafhmtwn.
Ta tuqaa grafmata Markov twn Frank & Strauss (1986) [8 apotelon mia
sugkekrimnh klsh twn montlwn ekjetikn tuqawn grafhmtwn. Merik
for ta montla ekjetikn tuqawn grafhmtwn anafrontai w montla p ,
epeid apotelon mia genkeush twn montlwn duadik anexarthsa , na ap
ta prta dhmofil paradegmata twn opown tan ta montla p1 twn Holland
& Leinhardt (1981) [13.
1.2.1 Periorismo Paramtrwn
Parathrome ti h exswsh (1) anafretai se diaforetiko sqhmatismo su-

nlwn me diaforetiko kmbou . Gia pardeigma, se montla th amoibaith-
ta , uprqei na xeqwrist sqhmatism gia to snolo {Y12 , Y21 } gia to
snolo {Y13 , Y31 } k.o.k. Tte, se autn thn genik morf, to montlo em-
periqei poll paramtrou . P.q., uprqoun n(n 1)/2 parmetroi gia thn
amoibaithta.
Aut enai, profan , poll parmetroi kai to montlo de mpore na ektimh-

je ap mia monadik diktuak paratrhsh. Merik parmetroi prpei na
mhdeniston na exiswjon metax tou na perioriston kat kpoio llo
trpo. Akoloujnta tou Frank & Strauss (1986) [8, suqn efarmzou-
me mia upjesh omoiogneia , exisnonta ti paramtrou gia ton dio tpo
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sqhmatismo. Gia pardeigma, jewrnta th sqsh th amoibaithta , o Pa-

lo mpore na tenei me meglo enjousiasm na antapodsei ti protsei
fila ap llou , all h Marh mpore na enai pio distaktik. Parla au-
t, gia ton skop th kataskeu en aplosterou montlou, mporome na
upojsoume ti uprqei h dia tsh amoibaithta kai ap thn Marh kai a-
p ton Palo. Tte, to sunepagmeno sflma aporroftai ap to montlo
san statistik jrubo . Aut h prosggish upojtei ti kpoie sugke-
krimne kanonikthte enai die gia lo to dktuo, gia pardeigma, ti u-
prqei h dia amoibaithta se lo to dktuo, anexrthta ap to poioi kmboi
(drnte ) emplkontai. Aut to onomzoume omoiogneia twn isomorfikn di-
ktuakn sqhmatismn, pou oi parmetroi exisnontai, en oi sqhmatismo
enai dioi, tan agnoome ta qarakthristik twn kmbwn (opte oi sqhma-

tismo lgontai isomorfiko). Mporome epsh na knoume mia perisstero
sugkatabatik upjesh: gia pardeigma, en mporosame na metrsoume ta o-
poiadpote qarakthristik twn atmwn, ta opoa prodiajtoun gia amoibaou
(antapodidmenou ) desmo , ja mporosame na epitryoume thn amoibaithta
na exarttai ap aut ta qarakthristik twn kmbwn (drntwn).
'Otan knoume autn thn upjesh th omoiogneia , pargoume na montlo me

thn dia morf pw th exswsh (1), all tra oi (isomorfiko) sqhmatismo
aforon genik epidrsei (p.q., h sunolik epdrash th amoibaithta ). T-
te, oi metrsei twn antstoiqwn diktuakn sqhmatismn (p.q., o arijm twn
amoibawn antapodidmenwn desmn) enai oi zhtomene statistik .
All uprqoun arketo lloi trpoi, me tou opoou oi periorismo sti pa-
ramtrou mporon na eisaqjon kai, tsi, diaforetiko periorismo isqoun
se diaforetik montla. Smfwna me mia llh mjodo efarmog periorismn,
exissoume ti paramtrou gia isomorfiko sqhmatismo tan emplkon-
tai moioi tpoi drntwn. Gia pardeigma, sthn perptwsh th amoibaithta
sta sqolik dktua fila , ja mporosame na protenoume llh parmetro a-
moibaithta gia sqhmatismo dudwn th morf kortsi-kortsi, llh gia
sqhmatismo agri-kortsi kai llh gia sqhmatismo agri-agri.
Akmh kai an squan kpoioi logiko periorismo th omoiogneia , to montlo

pijann ja eqe pra poll paramtrou , pou ja prepe na ektimhjon. Se
autn thn perptwsh, mporome na jewrsoume ton periorism tou arijmo
twn sqhmatismn, jtonta kpoie paramtrou se me 0 eisaggonta
upojetiko periorismo gia ti tim twn paramtrwn, pou antistoiqon se
megalterou sqhmatismo .
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1.3 Upojsei Exartsewn
1.3.1 Grafmata Bernoulli
H aplosterh upjesh exrthsh enai gia tuqae katanom grafhmtwn

Bernoulli, oi opoe dhmiourgontai, tan upojsoume ti oi akm enai anexr-
thte metax tou , gia pardeigma, en emfanzontai tuqaa me mia stajer
pijanthta (Erdos & Renyi, 1959 [5], Frank & Nowicki, 1993 [7]). H apl
upjesh exrthsh se autn thn perptwsh enai ti loi oi pijano diakrito
desmo enai anexrthtoi o na ap ton llo. Parathrsame parapnw ti oi
monadiko sqhmatismo sqetiko me to montlo enai auto, stou opoou loi
oi pijano desmo sto sqhmatism enai up sunjkh exartmenoi o na me
ton llo. 'Otan loi oi pijano desmo enai anexrthtoi, oi monadiko pijano
sqhmatismo aforon ti xeqwrist akm {Yij }. 'Ara, ap thn exswsh (1)
to genik montlo tra enai:
! ( )
1 X
Pr(Y = y) = exp ij yij

i,j
Parathrome ti, sugkrnonta me thn exswsh (1), kje snolo A, pou peri-
lambnei mia mno pijan akm Yij , enai na sqhmatism auto tou montlou
kai uprqei h parmetro ij gia kje nan ttoio sqhmatism. H diktuak
statistik gA (y) = gij (y) = yij ma lei en aut o sqhmatism parath-
retai qi. En epiblloume thn upjesh th omoiogneia , tsi ste kje
desm na sumperifretai me ton dio trpo, exisnoume ti paramtrou ste
ij = , gia la ta i kai j , kai, ra:
!
1
Pr(Y = y) = exp(L(y)) (2)

pou L(y) = i,j yi,j enai o arijm twn txwn sto grfhma y kai h parme-
P
tro afor thn pijanthta emfnish en desmo.4 H parmetro kaletai

parmetro akm puknthta .
Uprqoun kai lle dunatthte , gia na epiblloume thn omoiogneia. A

upojsoume ti qoume drnte se duo dedomna mplok. Tte, mporome na
epiblloume thn omoiogneia kat mplok, tsi ste ij = 11 , en kai to i kai
to j enai sto mplok 1, ij = 12 , en to i enai sto mplok 1 kai to j enai sto
mplok 2, k.o.k. Tte enai apl na dexoume ti:
!
1
Pr(Y = y) = exp 11 L11 (y) + 12 L12 (y) + 21 L21 (y) + 22 L22 (y)

4 Pio sugkekrimna, = exp /(1+exp ). H upjesh omoiogneia shmanei ti uprqei
mia stajer pijanthta gia le ti pijan akm tou grafmato , dhlad, ti uprqei
mia monadik pijanthta .
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pou L11 (y) enai o arijm twn txwn msa sto prto mplok kai L12 (y) o
arijm twn txwn ap to mplok 1 sto mplok 2 k.o.k.
1.3.2 Duadik Montla
Mia elafr pio perplokh (all qi suqn pol realistik) upjesh gia
kateujunmena grafmata enai ti oi dude , ant twn akmn, enai anexrth-
te h ma ap thn llh. Me autn thn upjesh exrthsh , qoume duo tpou
sqhmatismn sto montlo, apl akm kai amoibae (antapodidmene ) akm .
Afo epiblloume thn omoiogneia, to montlo gnetai:
! !
1 X X
Pr(Y = y) = exp yij + yij yji

i,j i,j
!
1
= exp(L(y) + M (y)) (3)

pou L(y) enai o arijm twn desmn sto y kai M (y) = i,j yij yji enai o
P
arijm twn amoibawn (antapodidmenwn) desmn sto y. Mia elafr pio

polplokh upjesh omoiogneia odhge sto montlo p1 twn Holland & Lei-
nhardt (1981) [13].
Metax kpoiwn llwn sqetikn, all pio polplokwn kai realistikn mont-
lwn, enai to montlo p2 (Lazega & van Duijn, 1997 [17], van Duijn et al.,
2004 [41]), pou upotjetai ti qoume duadik anexarthsa all kai exrthsh
ap ta qarakthristik twn kmbwn (drntwn). To montlo p2 enai katllhlo,
se periptsei pou perimnoume th dom na diamorfwje ap ta qarakthristi-
k. Enai mia proktash tou montlou p1 me ti epidrsei tou apostola kai
tou paralpth na antimetwpzontai san tuqae epidrsei , sumperilambano-
mnwn kai twn epidrsewn twn drntwn kai twn dudwn drntwn. 'Oso pio
polploke upojsei sthrzoun aut to montlo, tso pio realistik aut
gnetai gia pragmatik diktuak dedomna, eidik tan oi epidrsei twn qa-
rakthristikn anamnontai na enai isqur . Diafrei ap ta snhjh montla
ekjetikn tuqawn grafhmtwn w pro thn enswmtwsh twn tuqawn epi-
drsewn. Bebaw , sthn perptwsh twn mh kateujunmenwn grafhmtwn, ta
montla Bernoulli kai ta montla duadik exrthsh enai tautshma: gia mh
kateujunmena grafmata, h parmetro amoibaithta p sthn exswsh (3)
den pazei kanna rlo kai to montlo angetai sthn exswsh (2).
1.3.3 Tuqaa Grafmata Markov
Oi dom Bernoulli kai oi dom duadik exrthsh apotelon mh realisti-

k upojsei se poll periptsei , tso empeirik, so kai jewrhtik. Oi
Frank & Strauss (1986) [8 eisgagan gia prth for thn exrthsh Markov,
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smfwna me thn opoa na pijan desm ap to i sto j jewretai ti exar-

ttai ap opoiondpote llo pijan desm, pou perilambnei to i to j ,
dojntwn lwn twn llwn desmn. Se autn thn perptwsh, lme ti oi do
desmo enai up sunjkh exartmenoi, dojntwn twn timn lwn twn llwn
desmn.5 H exrthsh Markov mpore na qarakthriste w h upjesh ti duo
pijano desmo diktou enai up sunjkh exartmenoi, tan sundoun nan
koin drnta. Gia pardeigma, h sqsh metax tou Ptrou kai th Marh
mpore na exarttai epsh ap thn parousa thn apousa th sqsh metax
th Marh kai tou Ginnh (idw en h sqsh aut enai aisjhmatik!). Mpo-
rome na to ekfrsoume pio tupik, upojtonta thn up sunjkh exrthsh
metax lwn twn pijann desmn Y kai Y . Auto oi do pijano desmo
enai up sunjkh exartmenoi, epeid moirzontai ton kmbo (Marh).
En epsh upojsoume thn omoiogneia, prokptei to montlo tuqaou graf-

mato Markov, me sqhmatismo (kai antstoiqe paramtrou ) gia ta kateuju-
nmena kai mh kateujunmena grafmata, pou parousizontai sto sqma 1.1.
Aut oi parmetroi antistoiqon se kpoie pol gnwst domik kanoniko-
tte sth bibliografa twn grafhmtwn kai diktwn. Gia kateujunmena gra-
fmata, qoume dh dei thn parmetro th akm (15 ) kai thn parmetro
th amoibaithta (11 ) sta montla Bernoulli kai duadik anexarthsa . U-
prqoun diforoi parmetroi gia ta 2-astria: h parmetro twn 2-pro -ta-
xw-asterin (12 ) mpore na jewrhje ti antistoiqe sthn diastaltikthta, h
parmetro twn 2-miktn-asterin (13 ) antistoiqe sti 2-diadrom kai h pa-
rmetro twn 2-pro -ta-msa-asterin (14 ) ti antistoiqe sth dhmotikthta.
Parathrome kai tou shmantiko metabatiko kai kukliko sqhmatismo
((9 ) kai (10 )). Lambnonta upyh aut ti paramtrou , enisqetai h apo-
telesmatikthta twn montlwn, kaj uprqei lleiyh diktuakn montlwn,
pou enswmatnoun aut ti epidrsei (Newman, 2003 [21]), kai pol l-
ga ap aut mporon na ektimhjon ap pragmatik dedomna. To plre
snolo twn paramtrwn perilambnei epsh la ta pijan astria anterh
txh , parlo pou, en la aut ta astria sumperilhfjon uprqoun poll
parmetroi gia to montlo, pou prpei na ektimhjon. Molonti merik arqi-
k efarmog twn montlwn tuqawn grafhmtwn Markov sumperielmbanan
mno epidrsei 2-asterin, enai tra gnwst ti mpore na enai shmantik
na sumperilambnontai mh mhdenik parmetroi gia toulqiston thn epdrash
twn 3-asterin sta montla polln koinwnikn diktwn (Robins et al., 2004
[27], 2005 [28]). Mia enallaktik prosggish (pw ja dome pio ktw) peri-
lambnei le ti paramtrou twn asterin anterh txh , all epibllei
periorismo sti sqsei metax twn paramtrwn gia ta astria anterh
txh kai katterh txh .
5
En duo desmo enai up sunjkh exartmenoi, tte en h tim tou en allxei, h
pijanthta tou llou desmo metablletai, akmh kai en loi oi lloi desmo tou diktou
paramenoun oi dioi.
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Sqma 1.1: Sqhmatismo kai parmetroi gia ta montla tuqawn grafhmtwn

Markov.
Gia pardeigma, na montlo tuqaou grafmato Markov gia na mh kateuju-

nmeno dktuo me epidrsei akmn, 2-asterin kai 3-asterin enai to:
!
1
Pr(Y = y) = exp L(y) + 2 S2 (y) + 3 S3 (y) + T (y) (4)

pou S2 (y) kai S3 (y) enai oi arijmo twn 2-asterin kai twn 3-asterin,
antstoiqa, msa sto dktuo y kai T (y) enai o arijm twn trignwn sto
y. Parathrome ti, gia tuqaa grafmata Markov, enai epsh pijan na
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sumperilboume paramtrou gia astria anterh txh ap 3 (4-astria,

5-astria k.lp.). To montlo th exswsh (4) enai na pardeigma, sto o-
poo kpoie parmetroi anterh txh tjentai se me 0. Se autn thn
perptwsh, upojtoume ti h katanom twn asterin (sthn pragmatikthta,
h katanom twn bajmn) mpore epark na exhghje ap ti epidrsei twn
2 kai 3-asterin.6
Prpei na parathrhje ti oi statistik sto montlo Markov sqetzontai me-

tax tou , me thn nnoia ti kpoie enai anterh txh ap kpoie lle .
Gia pardeigma, a upojsoume ti uprqei na 3-astri se na mh kateujun-
meno grfhma me kntro ton kmbo i. Tte, epsh parathrome ti uprqoun
tra 2-astria (kai trei akm ) epsh me kntro ton kmbo i. Aut enai
anlogo me anterh txh allhlepidrsei sti gnwst genik diadikase
grammikn montlwn, kti pou apotele na shmantik stoiqeo, pou bohj
sthn ermhnea tou montlou. En, gia pardeigma, to grfhma qei poll
2-astria, tte merik ja sqhmatzoun trgwna exaita th tqh . All en
uprqei mia ousiastik trigwnik epdrash se na montlo tuqaou grafma-
to Markov, aut enai, pnw kai pra ap la, h epdrash twn 2-asterin
kai mporome na sumpernoume ti to eppedo th trigwnopohsh de sunbei
apl kai mno lgw th tuqaa epikluyh polln 2-asterin (, sthn prag-
matikthta, polln akmn). Se autn thn perptwsh, ja sumperaname ti h
trigwnopohsh tan mia shmantik diadikasa se aut to dktuo, anexrthta
ap lle epidrsei .
'Eqoun epsh anaptuqje diaforetik epexergase auto tou basiko mont-

lou tuqaou grafmato Markov: gia polumetablht dktua (Pattison & W-
asserman, 1999 [25]), gia dktua me tim (Robins et al., 1999 [34]) kai gia
dktua upagwg (Skvoretz & Faust, 1999 [36], Pattison & Robins, 2004
[24]).
1.3.4 Dom Exartsewn me Metablht pnw stou

Kmbou
Uprqoun pollo trpoi gia na eisaqjon oi epidrsei twn qarakthristikn

twn kmbwn (drntwn) sta montla ekjetikn tuqawn grafhmtwn Markov
kai lla. Upojtoume ti uprqei na dinusma metablhtn X en duadi-
ko qarakthristiko, pou Xi = 1, en o drwn i qei to qarakthristik,
kai Xi = 0, alli . To dinusma x enai tte to snolo twn parathrsewn
sto X. Parti enai dunatn na gnei h genkeush gia qarakthristik, pou
ete parnoun poll suneqe tim , ed ja perioristome se duadik qara-
kthristik. Sto shmeo aut, san pardeigma, ja perigryoume se suntoma
6
Gia na emaste sgouroi gia aut, mporome na prosomoisoume mia katanom gra-
fhmtwn tou prosarmosmnou montlou kai na elgxoume ti katanom twn bajmn se
sgkrish me to parathromeno dktuo.
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montla koinwnik epilog , sta opoa ta qarakthristik upotjetai ti pro-

blpoun exwgen tou desmo tou diktou (Robins et al., 2001a [32]).7
Mporome na diereunsoume thn perptwsh, pou mia upjesh omoithta o-
moiofila apotele th bsh th koinwnik epilog dhlad, thn perptwsh
pou oi koinwniko desmo tenoun na anaptuqjon metax drntwn me ta dia
qarakthristik exetzonta thn katanom twn desmn dojesh th kata-
nom twn qarakthristikn. Me lla lgia, antjeta me thn exswsh (1), to
endiafron ma enai sthn pijanthta tou grafmato y, dojntwn twn para-
thrsewn twn qarakthristikn x, dhlad, ma endiafrei tra h pijanthta
Pr(Y = y| X = x).
Sqma 1.2: (A-H) Sqhmatismo gia na montlo qarakthristikn Markov

montlo koinwnik epilog grafmato Markov.
Mia apl upjesh exrthsh anmesa sta qarakthristik kai sti diktuak
metablht enai tan to qarakthristik tou i ephrezei pijano desmo ,
pou sundoun to i (dhlad, Yij ), kai anafermaste se autn thn upjesh
w upjesh twn qarakthristikn Markov. Gia pardeigma, se na organw-
tik plasio, h arqaithta en drnto (p.q., arqaithta sti dieujuntik
ikanthte ) mpore na ephresei tou pijano desmo auto tou drnto .
An jewrsoume qarakthristik Markov maz me diktuak exartsei Marko-
v, gia na mh kateujunmeno grfhma, to montlo perilambnei tou sqhma-
tismo (mqri 3-astria), pou fanontai sto sqma 1.2, pou oi gkri kmboi
7
Mia llh mjodo enswmtwsh twn qarakthristikn twn drntwn enai msw mo-
ntlwn koinwnik epdrash , sta opoa oi desmo tou diktou problpoun exwgen ta
qarakthristik (Robins et al., 2001b [33]).
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anapariston drnte me arqaithta kai oi sproi kmboi anapariston o-

poiondpote drnta, anexrthta en enai netero presbtero . Me lla
lgia, o sqhmatism (A) anaparist ti tsei twn presbterwn dieujuntn
na sundontai metax tou , en o sqhmatism (B) anaparist thn tsh en
presbterou dieujnth na qei pollo desmo k.o.k. An brome mia meg-
lh jetik ektmhsh twn paramtrwn tou sqhmatismo (A), aut apotele mia
apdeixh ti uprqoun omoiofilik epidrsei sto dktuo.
Parathrome ap to sqma 1.2 ti oi mnoi mh duadiko sqhmatismo me qarakth-

ristik emplkoun 2 3- astria, pou o drn me to qarakthristik brsketai
sto kntro tou asterio. Gia na pargoume trigwniko sqhmatismo me
metablht qarakthristikn apaitontai epiprsjete upojsei exrthsh .
1.3.5 Pio Polploke Upojsei Exrthsh
Teleutaa qoun anaptuqje difore epexergase montlwn ekjetikn tuqa-

wn grafhmtwn, pou kinontai pra ap ta tuqaa grafmata Markov. Oi Pat-
tison & Robins (2002) [23 parousasan duo kainotome . Msw twn diarjrw-
tikn domn, peririsan ti exartsei austhr msa sta meletomena koi-
nwnik plasia. Basismnoi sthn doulei tou Feld (1981) [6, prteinan gia pa-
radegmata koinwnik dom msa se na qwroqronik plasio, pw mia omda
anjrpwn sugkentrwmnwn thn dia stigm sto dio mro . Epsh jerhsan
koinwnik dom msa se na perisstero afhrhmno koinwnikopolitistik
qro, pw zegh atmwn sundedemnwn msw twn politikn desmesen
tou , kaj kai dom , pou antanaklon kpoiou exwteriko periorismo ,
pw oi organwtik dom .
'Ena epiprsjeto knhtro gia thn eisagwg twn koinwnikn plaiswn enai to
gegon ti h exrthsh Markov fanetai mh realistik gia megla dktua, sta
opoa oi drnte mpore akmh kai na mh gnwrzoun kai gia thn parxh k-
poiwn llwn drntwn kai na mh diajtoun trpou na rjoun se epaf maz
tou , all mw oi endeqmenoi desmo tou jewrontai akma ti mporon
na ephresoun kai llou pijano desmo . An h upjesh gia th dom en
koinwniko plaisou enai kal jemeliwmnh, uprqoun epiptsei ston tpo
twn dedomnwn, pou prpei na sugkentrwjon, gia mia plrh katanhsh tou
koinwniko diktou. Gia peraitrw epexergase se autn thn katejunsh
dete Schweinberger & Snijders (2003) [35].
Mia deterh katejunsh, pou parousisthke ap tou Pattison & Robins

(2002) [23, tan h ida twn mh Markobiann exartsewn metax desmn, pou
de moirzontai ton dio drnta, all pou mporon na enai allhloexartmenoi
dia msou sundsewn me trta mlh. Gia pardeigma, to Yij mpore na enai up
sunjkh exartmeno ap to Yrs gia tsseri diakrito drnte , en uprqei
na parathromeno desm metax ete twn i j kai ete twn r s. Aut
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ta montla, pou exartntai ap thn ulopohsh, mporon na analujon msw

twn domn merik exrthsh twn Pattison & Robins (2002) [23. Epsh ,
aut ta montla epitrpoun thn eisagwg trignwn, pou emplkoun epidrsei
qarakthristikn.
1.4 Ektmhsh
Oi Anderson et al. (1999) [1 sth melth tou twn montlwn p qrhsimo-

pohsan thn ektmhsh th yeudo-pijanofneia , pou eqe eisaqje ap tou
Strauss & Ikeda (1990) [40, gia na ektimsoun ti paramtrou twn montlwn
Markov. Tra gnwrzoume ti, analgw twn dedomnwn, mpore na upr-
qoun sobar problmata me ti ektimsei yeudo-pijanofneia gia aut ta
montla. All gia ta montla tuqawn grafhmtwn Markov, h tupik mgi-
sth ektmhsh pijanofneia den enai ekola ulopoisimh gia la ta dktua,
par mno gia ta pol mikr, lgw twn duskolin upologismo th stajer
kanonikopohsh sthn exswsh (1). Aut shmanei ti oi tupik statistik
teqnik de mporon na efarmoston se aut ta montla. Aut ta problma-
ta qoun xeperaste prsfata me thn anptuxh twn nwn teqnikn megsth
pijanofneia Monte Carlo.
1.4.1 Ektmhsh Yeudo-Pijanofneia
H qrsh th megsth yeudo-pijanofneia gia thn ektmhsh diadrastikn mo-

ntlwn eqe arqik eisaqje ap ton Besag (1975) [3 kai, sth sunqeia eqe
protaje ap tou Strauss & Ikeda (1990) [40 gia montla tuqawn grafhm-
twn Markov. Msa sth statistik kointhta, h yeudo-pijanofneia odghse
sti teqnik Monte Carlo, pou aut tan efikt, molonti qei akma tou
diko th uposthrikt (Wasserman & Robins, 2005 [44]). To pleonkthma
th ektmhsh th yeudo-pijanofneia sto plasio twn montlwn ekjetikn
tuqawn grafhmtwn enai ti h prosarmog akmh kai polplokwn montlwn
kajstatai ekolh na ulopoihje. To meionkthma enai ti oi idithte tou
ektimht den enai plrw katanoht kai enai gnwst ti gia poll snola
dedomnwn oi ektimsei th yeudo-pijanofneia den enai akribe .
H ektmhsh th yeudo-pijanofneia katanoetai kaltera metasqhmatzonta

thn exswsh (1) sthn akloujh morf desmeumnwn pijanottwn (Strauss &
Ikeda, 1990 [40]):
" #
C)
Pr(Yij = 1|yij X
log C
= A dA (y) (5)
Pr(Yij = 0|yij )
A(Yij )
pou (i) to jroisma enai gia lou tou sqhmatismo A, pou periqoun ta
Yij , (ii) A enai h parmetro , pou antistoiqe sto sqhmatism A, (iii) dA (y)
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enai h statistik twn metaboln, dhlad, twn metaboln sthn tim th di-
ktuak statistik zA (y), tan to yij allzei ap 1 se 0, kai (iv) yij
C enai
le oi parathrsei twn desmn sto y ekt th paratrhsh yij .
O upologism th statistik twn metaboln qei suzhthje ekten ap

mia plhjra suggrafwn (Anderson et al., 1999 [1], Pattison & Robins, 2002
[23], Wasserman & Pattison, 1996 [43], Wasserman & Robins, 2005 [44]) kai,
gia aut, de qreizetai na proqwrsoume parapra se aut to shmeo. Afo
prta upologiston oi statistik twn metaboln, gia na pargoun ti ektim-
sei th yeudo-pijanofneia , kje pijan desm Yij gnetai mia perptwsh
se mia tupik diadikasa logistik palindrmhsh , pou to yij problpetai
ap to snolo twn statistikn twn metaboln (Anderson et al., 1999 [1]).
Aut h diadikasa moizei me mia logistik palindrmhsh , sthn pragmatikth-

ta, na logarijmikogrammik (loglinear) montlo all den enai. H logisti-
k palindrmhsh upojtei anexrthte parathrsei , mia upjesh pou saf
den thretai gia montla Markov kai anterh txh . 'Etsi, oi ektimsei twn
paramtrwn mpore na enai merolhptik kai ta tupik ljh, sthn kalterh
perptwsh, mpore na enai proseggistik kai arket mikr. Den prpei na
sthriqtome sthn statistik Wald, gia na apofassoume en mia parmetro
enai shmantik qi. Epsh , de mporome na upojsoume ti h apklish
th yeudo-pijanofneia enai asumptwtik katanemhmnh me thn -tetrgwno
(pou ja sunbaine sthn kanonik logistik palindrmhsh). 'Otan oi exartsei
anmesa sti parathrsei den enai isqur , genik sumbanei oi ektimsei
th yeudopijanofneia na enai perisstero akribe . H ektmhsh th yeudo-
pijanofneia qrhsimopoijhke w smera lgw th praktik eukola th
(dedomnou ti oi enallaktik mjodoi den enai akma plrw diajsime ).
'Otan enai dunat, h protimomenh epilog enai h qrsh diadikasin ektmh-
sh Monte Carlo.
1.4.2 Ektmhsh Monte Carlo Mgisth Pijanofneia gia thn

Alusda Markov (MCMCMLE)
Prsfate shmantik exelxei sti teqnik ektmhsh Monte Carlo gia ta

montla ekjetikn tuqawn grafhmtwn qoun parousiaste ap mia plhjra
suggrafwn (Snijders, 2002 [37], Handcock et al., 2006 [12], Snijders et al.,
2006 [11] kai Wasserman & Robins, 2005 [44]).
Arqik, parathrome ti h prosomowsh autn twn montlwn mpore na ulopoi-

hje me na sqetik meso trpo. Qwr na eisljoume se leptomreie , h
prosomowsh th katanom twn grafhmtwn gia na dojn snolo timn twn
paramtrwn mpore na gnei msw diforwn algorjmwn (p.q., algorjmwn pol
gnwstn sthn statistik, pw o algrijmo Metropolis). H prosomowsh
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brsketai sto epkentro th ektmhsh Monte Carlo th mgisth pijanofnei-

a (Monte Carlo maximum likelihood estimation MCMLE). Diadikase
prosomowsh montlwn ekjetikn tuqawn grafhmtwn qoun perigrafe a-
p tou Strauss (1986) [39], Snijders (2002) [37] kai Robins et al. (2005) [29].
Molonti uprqoun diafor anmesa sti diaforetik teqnik ektmhsh

Monte Carlo (Snijders, 2002 [37], Hunter & Handcock [14]), aut baszon-
tai sthn dia kentrik mejodologa: prosomowsh mia katanom tuqawn
grafhmtwn ap na arqik snolo timn twn paramtrwn kai met beltwsh
twn timn twn paramtrwn me sgkrish th katanom twn grafhmtwn nanti
tou parathromenou grafmato , pou h diadikasa epanalambnetai mqri na
stajeropoihjon oi ektimsei twn paramtrwn.
Ap melte tso th ektmhsh so kai th prosomowsh dhmiourgjhkan

angke gia ne prodiagraf twn montlwn tuqawn grafhmtwn Markov.
O Handcock (2003) [11] rise ti qoume thn perptwsh tou sqedn ekfu-
lismo, tan to montlo periqei mno lga grafhmta me sqetik meglh
pijanthta (sunjw aut enai ete to plre ete to ken grfhma). En to

montlo periqei mno aut ti mh endiafrouse periptsei , tte de ja enai
qrsimo gia montelopohsh pragmatikn diktwn. Oi melte prosomoisewn
protenoun ti ta montla grafhmtwn Markov, pou periqoun toulqiston mh
mhdenik paramtrou 3-asterin, tenoun na brskontai ligtero sthn kat-
stash tou sqedn ekfulismo ap ti ta montla, sta opoa h antath txh
mh mhdenik parmetro enai gia 2-astria (Robins et al., 2005 [29]). All gia
to sunupologism twn paramtrwn 3-asterin suqn den arke h apomkrun-
sh th sumperifor tou sqedn ekfulismo se montla grafhmtwn Markov,
idw tan prospajome na brome montla, pou anapargoun ta uyhl eppe-
da metabatikthta , ta opoa suqn parathrontai se anjrpine koinwnik
dom (Snijders et al., 2006 [38]). To gegon ti aut ta problmata mpore
na mhn parousiaston sthn ektmhsh th yeudo-pijanofneia apl shmanei
ti, gia sqedn ekfulismna montla, oi ektimsei th yeudo-pijanofneia
mpore na enai paraplanhtik . To krio prblhma se aut ti periptsei
enai ti to montlo den enai kal - kajorismno.
To gegon enai ti difore teqnik ektmhsh Monte Carlo enai plon

diajsime kai pote qreizetai, aut protimontai. Aut oi ne mejodolo-
ge bgzoun sthn epifneia kpoie aneprkeie sta montla tuqawn grafh-
mtwn Markov, tan, gia pardeigma, oi metabatik epidrsei enai isqur .
En aut sumbanei gia na dojn snolo dedomnwn, mporome na parathr-
soume ti enai adnato na exaqjon sunepe ektimsei twn paramtrwn me
thn ektmhsh Monte Carlo megsth pijanofneia (ap teqnik poyh , h
diadikasa ektmhsh de sugklnei). Aut shmanei ti ta montla grafhmtwn
Markov enai akatllhla gia ta dedomna. Gia autn ton lgo oi Snijders et
al. (2006) [38 eisgagan kpoie ne prodiagraf gia montla ekjetikn
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tuqawn grafhmtwn.
1.5 Ne Prodiagraf
Oi Snijders et al. (2006) [38 prteinan trei ne statistik , pou mpo-

ron na sumperilhfjon gia ti prodiagraf montlwn ekjetikn tuqawn
grafhmtwn: ta enallassmena k-astria, ta enallassmena k-trgwna kai ti
anexrthte enallassmene 2-diadrom . Ed, ja sugkentrwjome sta pr-
ta duo. Sugkekrimna, dnoume mfash sthn qrhsimthta th na nnoia twn

enallassmenwn k-trignwn san mtro anterh txh th metabatikthta .
Tupik, anafermaste se aut ti paramtrou kai sta antstoiqa montla w
anterh txh , epeid sumperilambnoun sqhmatismo me perissterou ap
trei kmbou . Se autn thn enthta, estizoume se anterh txh param-

trou gia mh-kateujunmena grafmata, me kpoia sqlia gia kateujunmena
sto tlo .
1.5.1 Enallassmena k -Astria
Ap teqnik poyh , to montlo me mnh parmetro aut twn enallassme-

nwn k-asterin paramnei sthn klsh twn montlwn tuqawn grafhmtwn
Markov. To knhtro gia mia na parmetro prokptei ap thn empeira sthn
prosarmog montlwn. Prosarmzonta montla me paramtrou asterin se
snola diktuakn dedomnwn, gia ta opoa oi ektimsei sgklish mporon
na exaqjon, oi Robins et al. (2007b) [31] eqan suqn parathrsei ti h
ektmhsh mia paramtrou gia astria uyhl txh eqe to antjeto prsh-
mo kai mikrterh tim ap ti paramtrou gia astria mikrterh txh . Gia
pardeigma, ja mporosame se na montlo Markov, pw to (4), na dome
ektimsei paramtrwn, pou to 3 ja tan kat prosggish so me 2 /,
gia kpoio megaltero th monda .
Sto montlo Markov (4), oi parmetroi twn asterin eskemmna periorsth-

kan sto mgisto twn 3-asterin. 'Omw , pio genik, h upjesh exrthsh
Markov epitrpei astria anterh txh , w astria th mgisth pijan
txh (n 1). Sthn (4), isqei h upjesh ti oi parmetroi gia aut ta a-
stria anterh txh enai se me 0 lgw tou periorismo tou pljou twn
paramtrwn gia thn epteuxh en eparko montlou, sto opoo mporon na
ektimhjon oi parmetroi.8
H upjesh twn enallassmenwn k-asterin protenei ti, ant na jsoume

ti paramtrou asterin anterh txh se me 0, le oi parmetroi gia
ta astria kratontai sto montlo, all me nan grammik periorism gia ti
tim twn paramtrwn, ttoio ste, gia la ta k 2, (k+1) = k /, gia
8
Aut h upjesh mpore na eidoje san anlogh me thn parbleyh twn diadrsewn
anterh txh , gia pardeigma, sthn tupik palindrmhsh.
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kpoia megaltera th monda . Tte, sthn (1), uprqei mia parmetro

2 , pou sunupologzei tautqrona le ti epidrsei twn asterin, msw th
paraktw statistik :
n1
X Sk
u= (1)k (6)
k2
k=2
Sthn upjesh (k+1) = k /, gia k 2, h parmetro 2 anafretai w h
parmetro twn enallassmenwn k-asterin.
H statistik (6) perilambnei astria lwn twn txewn, all, gia megalte-
ro th monda , h epdrash twn asterin anterh txh meinetai, gia megla
k kai gia enallassmena prshma. Me autn thn nnoia, h upjesh enai ml-
lon genikterh ap thn apl epibol sti paramtrou twn asterin anterh
txh th tim 0, pou enai h upjesh, pou uponoetai sthn (4).9
Mia profan erthsh enai ti tim ja dsoume sto . 'Eqoume qrhsimopoi-

sei to = 2 se poll periptsei kai aut fanetai na enai na logik
shmeo narxh gia arket reune . All, bebaw , ja tan epijumht na
upologsoume mia bltisth tim gia to . O Hunter (2007) [15] deqnei pw
aut mpore na pragmatopoihje (dete epsh Hunter & Handcock, 2006 [14]).
Gia tou skopo th parosa enthta , jtoume = 2.
Aut pou enai shmantik enai p ermhneetai aut h parmetro msw twn
sunepein, pou qei gia th dom tou grafmato . Fusik, h ektmhsh mia pa-
ramtrou gia mia dojesa topik dom enai sunjw endeiktik th ktash ,
me thn opoa h dom empeirik parathretai (arke na mhn uprqoun zhtmata
ekfulismo ditropikthta ). All h sussreush autn twn domn ja pa-
rgei idiatere sunolik diktuak dom , opte, tan na dktuo emfanzei
ttoie dom , ja mporosame na perimnoume ti ektimsei twn sqetikn pa-
ramtrwn na enai megle kai axioshmewte .
En h parmetro twn enallassmenwn k-asterin enai jetik, tte ta pio

pijan grafmata enai pijann na periqoun kpoiou kmbou anterou baj-
mo (hub), en mia arnhtik parmetro upodhlnei ti ta grafmata me km-
bou uyhlo bajmo enai apjana, opte oi kmboi den tenoun na enai hub kai
qoun mikrterh metablhtikthta metax twn bajmn. Pio idiatera, oi Snij-
ders et al. (2006) [38] isqursthkan ti mia jetik parmetro twn enallass-
9
Parathrome ti, se antjesh me ta tupik grafmata Markov, h statistik den enai
plon mia mesh katamtrhsh twn sqhmatismn sto parathromeno dktuo, all mllon
exarttai ap difore katametrsei sqhmatismn, sthn perptwsh aut, katametrsei
twn diforwn sqhmatismn asterin. Me lla lgia, qrhsimopoietai, tsi, mia upje-
sh exrthsh Markov, all epiblletai mia sugkekrimnh morf periorismo, gia le ti
paramtrou twn asterin, kai qi o tupik periorism th omoiogneia , pou prwtoqrh-
simopoijhke ap tou Frank & Strauss (1986) [8.
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menwn k-asterin (maz me mia arnhtik parmetro puknthta ) sunepgontai

grafmata, pou emfanzoun protimsei gia sundsei metax en megal-
terou arijmo kmbwn mikro bajmo kai en mikrterou arijmo kmbwn
megalterou bajmo, parmoia me th dom purna perifreia . All, tan
na kmbo ftsei na qei na sugkekrimno bajm, h epteuxh peraitrw
bajmn prosjtei lga sthn {dhmotiktht} tou.10 'Etsi, gia = 2, uprqei
mikr diafor metax en kmbou bajmo 5, 6 anterh {dhmotikthta }.
Se genik gramm , na kmbo brskei thn porea tou ston purna, tan
qei petqei nan sugkekrimno bajm, qwr kama idiaterh pesh gia uyh-
lterou bajmo . Tautqrona, lloi kmboi mikrterou bajmo paramnoun
xw ap ton purna. 'Epomnw , h genik sunpeia enai o sqhmatism {qa-
larn} domn purna perifreia me lgou kajlou kmbou tou purna,
pou qoun idiatera uyhlo bajmo . Aut h dom purna perifreia ulo-
poietai (metriasmna) ap diadikase dhmotikthta . Allzonta thn tim
tou , allzei to eppedo tou metrismato , me so megaltero enai to ,
tso pijanteroi na enai oi kmboi anterwn bajmn. Argtera, ja dexoume
p oi dom purna perifreia mporon epsh na pragmatopoihjon ap
isqur epikaluptmene epidrsei metabatikthta .
'Ena shmantik shmeo enai ti oi parmetroi bohjon sth montelopohsh th

katanom twn bajmn. Oi parmetroi Markov sto montlo (4) dnoun k-
poia jhsh sti prte trei rop th katanom twn bajmn (msw twn
paramtrwn gia akm , 2- kai 3-astria), all aut den arke pnta, tan,
gia pardeigma, oi katanom twn bajmn emfanzoun kpoie akrae tim
(gia kmbou uyhln bajmn). H na parmetro , pou den apokleei ta a-
stria anterh txh , parqei eleujera kinsewn sto diaqeirism ttoiwn
asmmetrwn katanomn twn bajmn. Me aut den ennoetai, fusik, ti le
oi dunatthte plhrontai kai, tan ta dktua enai pol kentrikopoihmna me
nan mikr arijm kmbwn pol uyhlo bajmo (hub), to montlo mno me
thn na parmetro enai apjano na parqei mia kal prosarmog sta dedo-
mna. Parla aut, h mqri stigm empeira protenei ti h parmetro twn
enallassmenwn k-asterin enai pio qrsimh sthn prosarmog montlwn ap
nan mikrtero arijm memonomnwn paramtrwn asterin Markov. Merik
for , mia kal prosarmog th katanom twn bajmn mpore na epiteuqje
me na sunduasm paramtrwn enallassmenwn k-asterin kai tupikn para-
mtrwn 2-asterin Markov.
Giat mpore mw h upjesh twn enallassmenwn k-asterin na bohjsei

ston ekfulism? Oi Snijders et al. (2006) [38 isqursthkan ti qreizetai
na uprqei mia isorropa metax arnhtikn kai jetikn paramtrwn asterin,
10
Ed, aut pou orzoume w {dhmotikthta} en kmbou i mpore na jewrhje pio
teqnik to desmeumno log-odds (logarijmo-pijanthta) th prosjkh en kmbou j, pou
sundetai me to i.
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gia na apofeuqje to endeqmeno h prokptousa katanom grfwn na peri-

qei poll plrh poll ken grafmata. H parousa twn enallassmenwn
prosmwn sto jroisma sthn (6) stoqeei se autn thn isorropa.
1.5.2 Enallassmena k -Trgwna
H upjesh twn enallassmenwn k-trignwn kinetai pran twn upojsewn e-

xrthsh , pnw sti opoe baszontai ta montla tuqawn grafhmtwn Mark-
ov, msw th qrsh ant gia aut th nnoia th merik exrthsh , pou
protjhke ap tou Pattison & Robins (2002) [23. H upokemenh upjesh th
exrthsh parousisthke ap tou Snijders et al. (2006) [38. En suntoma,
duo pijan akm se na grfhma, Yrs kai Yuv , gia diakekrimnou kmbou
r, s, u, v, upotjetai ti enai up sunjkh exartmene , en Ysu = Yuv = 1.
Me lla lgia, en oi duo pijan akm sto grfhma eqan ntw parath-
rhje, ja eqan dhmiourgsei nan 4-kklo. Ousiastik, den enai dskolo
na fantastome katastsei , sti opoe ttoie exartsei koinwnikn ku-
klwmtwn mpore na enai efikt . Gia pardeigma, a upojsoume ti se mia
epiqerhsh o Sthb ergzetai me thn Ubnnh kai o Romprto me to Bktor.

Tte, en o Romprto kai o Sthb arqzoun na douleoun se na kainorgio
prtzekt, h pijanthta na ergasjon maz kai h Ubnnh kai o Bktor mpore
na auxhje. Me lla lgia, h pijanthta na ergasjon maz h Ubnnh kai o
Bktor auxnetai, lgw tou gegonto ti o Romprto kai o Sthb ergzontai
maz, all mno efson o Romprto ergzetai dh me to Bktor kai o Sthb me
thn Ubnnh.
Oi Snijders et al. (2006) [38 epikalsthkan autn thn upjesh exrthsh

epiprsjeta me thn exrthsh Markov, tsi ste sthn parapnw perptwsh, ta
Yrs kai Ysv (k.o.k.) upotjetai epsh ti enai anexrthta. Den enai dskolo
na parathrsoume diaisjhtik ti, tan isqoun oi upojsei th exrthsh
koinwnikn kuklwmtwn kai exrthsh Markov, kpoioi sqhmatismo, pou e-
nai pio polplokoi ap ti ta apl trgwna, enai shmantiko gia to montlo.
Oi Snijders et al. (2006) [38 prteinan ta k-trgwna san kainorgie ante-

rh txh metabatik dom gia mh-kateujunmena grafmata. 'Ena k-trgwno
enai na sunduasm ap k diakrit trgwna, pou la moirzontai mia akm
(thn koin bsh twn k trignwn). A upojsoume ti duo geitoniko kmboi
r kai s enai epsh kai oi duo geitoniko stou diou k kmbou t1 , t2 , ..., tk
(dhlad, ti uprqei akm metax twn r kai tm kai metax twn s kai tm , gia
la ta m = 1, 2, ..., k). Tte h akm metax twn r kai s (h bsh) enai koin
sta k diaforetik trgwna me kmbou r, s kai tm . H sunolik dom, pou
perilambnei la ta diakrit trgwna, onomzetai k-trgwno. Oi akm metax
twn r kai tm kai metax twn s kai tm anafrontai w pleur tou k-trignou.
Profan , na 1-trgwno enai na sunhjismno trgwno. Sto sqma 1.3 a-
peikonzoume ta 2-, 3- kai 4-trgwna.
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Sqma 1.3: 2-, 3- kai 4-trgwna.
'Opw deixan oi Snijders et al. (2006) [38, o sunupologism twn k-trignwn

sto montlo odhge se mia katanom pijanottwn, sthn opoa duo metablht
akmn enai up sunjkh exartmene mno tan ete apotelon na sqhma-
tism Markov (uprqei koin kmbo ) ete sqhmatzoun na koinwnik k-
klwma (dhmiourgetai na 4-kklo ). Aut qei kpoia shmasa, afo deqnei
ti to montlo paramnei isqur periorismno ap upojsei up sunjkh
anexarthsa .
'Estw Tk to pljo twn k-trignwn se na grfhma. Tte ta k-trgwna

mporon na sunduaston sthn dia statistik, akrib me ton dio trpo,
pw ta enallassmena k-astria, dhlad:
n1
X Tk
v= (1)k (7)
k2
k=2
Aut enai h statistik twn enallassmenwn k-trignwn. H antstoiqh parme-

tro k -trignou = 1 antistoiqe se nan sqhmatism (1-)trignou, me ton
epiprsjeto periorism ti k+1 = k/ , pou k enai h parmetro , pou

antistoiqe se na k-trgwno. Aut h statistik kai h antstoiqh parmetro
sumperilambnontai tte sta montla th morf (1).
H statistik twn enallassmenwn k-trignwn den parist apl mia trigwno-

pohsh sto grfhma, all epiprsjeta apotele na mtro th ktash , sthn
opoa ta dia ta trgwna sunennontai metax tou , gia na sqhmatsoun mega-
ltere uyhlterh txh {sustde } sto grfhma. O sqedn ekfulism gia
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montla Markov sumbanei suqn, tan ta grafmata perilambnoun megalte-

re dom tpou klka , oi opoe periqoun poll trgwna, par mllon tan
poll trgwna apl diaskorpzontai omoiogen kai xeqwrist msa sto gr-
fhma. Me lla lgia, ta grafmata, pou periqoun pukn perioq sustdwn
me poll trgwna, enai dskolo na anaparaqjon me thn qrhsimopohsh twn
tuqawn grafhmtwn Markov. H anqneush kai h melth ttoiwn puknterwn
perioqn (dhlad, h tautopohsh twn sunektikn uposunlwn kmbwn) qei
mia meglh istora kai paramnei na krio jma sthn anlush twn grafhmtwn
kai diktwn, geniktera. H parmetro metabatikthta sta tuqaa grafmata
Markov tan h prth prospjeia gia montelopohsh autn twn puknterwn
domn, epeid to trgwno apotele th mikrterh klka metax trin kmbwn.
Akmh, pw qoun uposthrxei oi Snijders et al. (2006) [38, gia na apofeu-

qje o ekfulism sth montelopohsh ttoiwn sugkentrsewn trignwn, qrei-
zetai na eisaqje mia parmetro basismnh sth metabatikthta, h opoa en-
swmatnei uposnola ap kmbou megalterou ap tra. Ttoie parme-
troi qreizontai gia na frnoun thn isorropa metax th tsh gia mllon
poll sunektik uposnola trin perissterwn kmbwn, all kai tou perio-
rismo tou sunoliko arijmo twn trignwn, pou enai anagkao gia thn a-
pofug tou plrou grafmato . Epsh , aut h parmetro apaite mia sta-
tistik, pou den enai grammik w pro to pljo twn trignwn msa ston
ekjetik ro, se antjesh me thn (4). Aut h grammikthta ston ekjth a-
potele mia kria phg tou problmato tou ekfulismo, tan ta grafmata
qoun poll trgwna. H statistik twn enallasmenwn k-trignwn prospa-
je na ikanopoisei aut ti angke , me to enallassmeno prshmo kai ta
meiomena brh gia k-trgwna anterh txh na uphreton tou diou sko-
po ston periorism twn problhmtwn ekfulismo, pw gia enallasmena
k-astria.
Genik , h jetik parmetro k-trignwn mpore na ermhneuje w mia a-

pdeixh twn epidrsewn metabatikthta sto grfhma. Idiatera, h jetik
parmetro k-trignwn upodhlnei ti uprqei mia dom purna perifreia
(exartmenh kai ap lle epidrsei sto montlo), all, se autn thn pe-
rptwsh, lgw twn epidrsewn trigwnopohsh kai qi twn epidrsewn dhmo-
tikthta (bajmn), pw tan h perptwsh gia ti epidrsei twn enallas-
smenwn k-asterin. Mporome na jewrsoume ti h basismnh sta astria
dom purna perifreia prorqetai ap thn katanom twn bajmn, kti pou
apotele na fusik apotlesma mia diadikasa , me thn opoa na uposnolo
drntwn enai pio dhmofil ; en, antjeta, gia thn basismnh sta trgwna
diadikasa purna perifreia , h dia h katanom twn bajmn enai aprroia
mia diadikasa , sthn opoa na purna dhmiourgetai ap epikaluptmene
trigwnopoisei . Sth sunqeia, ja dome epsh p orismnoi sunduasmo
diadikasin, pou baszontai se astria, kai diadikasin, pou baszontai se
trgwna, odhgon sthn temaqopohsh tou grafmato .
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1.5.3 Enallassmene k -2-Diadrom
Oi Snijders et al. (2006) [38 prteinan epsh mia parmetro, pou enai -
na sqhmatism mikrterh txh gia na k-trgwno, thn k-2-diadrom. Oi
sqhmatismo twn k-2-diadromn paristnoun ton arijm twn diakekrimnwn
2-diadromn anmesa se na zeugri kmbwn. Mporon na jewrhjon w k-
trgwna qwr na sumperilambnoun th bsh. To knhtro gia ti k-2-diadrom
enai h eisagwg mia paramtrou, pou tan qrhsimopoietai se sunduasm me
ta k-trgwna, ja kajist ikano tou ereunht na diakrnoun ti tsei sqh-
matismo akmn sth bsh sti pleur en k-trignou. Parathrome ti
oi pleur en k-trignou, tan den uprqei h bsh, pariston nan tpo o-
madopohsh akmn, pou apotele mno thn propjesh th metabatikthta ,
en h parousa th akm th bsh antanakl th metabatik kleistthta.
'Etsi, aut o sunduasm twn paramtrwn pistopoie thn pesh gia metaba-
tik kleistthta (all mia pesh, pou den auxnetai grammik me to k ston
ekjth). To sqma 1.4 deqnei dom 2-, 3- kai 4-2-diadromn. Akolojw ,
oi metrsei autn twn domn enswmatnontai se mia statistik anlogh me
thn (7).
Sqma 1.4: 2-, 3- kai 4-anexrthte 2-diadrom .
1.5.4 Enallaktik Isodname Parametrikopoisei
Uprqoun isodname parametrikopoisei sti prodiagraf twn enalla -

smenwn k-asterin, twn enallassmenwn k-trignwn kai twn enallassme-
nwn k-diadromn gia to montlo, oi opoe qoun majhmatik komythta kai
dieukolnoun na epiteuqje mia kalterh ermhnea twn fainomnwn.
1. H parmetro tou gewmetrik stajmismnou bajmo montelopoie rht
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thn katanom twn bajmn, all jtei megaltero bro sto pljo
twn kmbwn me tou qamhlterou bajmo , me ta brh na meinontai
gewmetrik so oi bajmo auxnontai.
2. H parmetro twn akmiak diamoirasmnwn etarwn (pou lgetai ESP,

ap ta arqik tou rou sta agglik: edge-wise shared partner ) montelo-
poie thn katanom twn diamoirasmnwn etarwn twn sundedemnwn dr-
ntwn, all me ta brh na meinontai gewmetrik, tan o arijm twn
diamoirasmnwn etarwn auxnetai.
3. H parmetro twn duadik diamoirasmnwn etarwn (pou lgetai DSP, a-

p ta arqik tou rou sta agglik: dyad-wise shared partner) montelo-
poie thn katanom twn diamoirasmnwn etarwn twn drntwn, oi opooi
mpore de mpore na enai sundedemnoi, all me ta brh na auxnontai
gewmetrik, tan o arijm twn diamoirasmnwn etarwn auxnetai.
Aut oi parametrikopoisei parousizontai leptomer ap ton Hunter

(2007) [15, o opoo exhge ti sqsei metax twn isodnamwn parametri-
kopoisewn.
1.5.5 Ne Prodiagraf gia Kateujunmena Grafmata
Oi parapnw perigraf efarmzontai se mh-kateujunmena grafmata. Oi

Snijders et al. (2006) [38 prteinan epsh thn antstoiqh jewra gia kateuju-
nmena grafmata. Prteinan duo ekdoq th paramtrou enallassmenwn
k-asterin, me th mia na baszetai sta pro -ta-msa-astria kai thn llh sta
pro -ta-xw-astria. Gia aut, h ma onomzetai parmetro twn enallassme-
nwn k -pro -ta-msa-asterin kai h llh onomzetai parmetro twn enal-
lassmenwn k -pro -ta-xw-asterin, antstoiqa. W pro la ta lla, h

jewra enai moia me ekenh twn mh-kateujunmenwn grafhmtwn. Gia ta ka-
teujunmena k-trgwna, prteinan mia dom, sthn opoa h bsh sundei kateu-
jean duo kmbou , oi opooi enai epsh sundedemnoi kai me k-kateujunmene
2-diadrom . To sqma 1.5 deqnei ta kateujunmena 2-, 3- kai 4-trgwna. Be-
baw , uprqoun kai lle dunatthte , tan duo kmboi sthn bsh sundontai
epsh ap diaforetiko tpou 2-hmi-diadromn.
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Sqma 1.5: Kateujunmena 2-, 3- kai 4-trgwna.

2 TO D
IKTUO FLORENTINE 31
2 To Dktuo Florentine
2.1 Exerenhsh Diktou
Sto keflaio aut, pw kai sta do epmena, ja efarmsoume th jewra twn

montlwn ekjetikn tuqawn grafhmtwn Markov, thn opoa qoume parou-
sisei sto prto keflaio. H efarmog auto tou statistiko montlou ja
ulopoihje ed msw tou paktou statnet (Goodreau et. al, 2006 [9]).
Sthn prth anlush, ja asqolhjome me ta dedomna tou diktou Florenti-

ne. Ta dedomna aut sugkentrjhkan ap ton John Padgett (1994) [22] kai
aforon na dktuo 16 istorikn oikogenein ap thn Flwrenta, pw exels-
setai ap to 1282 w to 1500. H kria sqsh pou sundei ti Flwrentian
oikogneie enai oi metax tou gmoi (Flomarriage) kai to antstoiqo (koinw-
nik) dktuo fanetai sto sqma 2.1. Mia deterh sqsh enai oi oikonomik
sunallag (Flobusiness), pou qoun metax tou oi oikogneie aut .
Msw tou peribllonto R, fortnoume to statnet, kaj kai ti biblio-

jke ergm (gia thn anlush twn montlwn ekjetikn tuqawn grafhmtwn
Markov) kai sna (gia ti analsei koinwnikn diktwn):
R> library(statnet)
R> library(ergm)
R> library(sna)
Gia na dome to snolo twn dedomnwn, pou enai diajsima sto statnet, ekte-
lome:
R> data()
En suneqea, fortnoume ta dedomna tou diktou Florentine, pou sqhmatzo-

ntai ap ti sqsei Flomarriage kai Flobusiness:
R> data(florentine)
Gia na dome ta diktuak dedomna twn sqsewn Flomarriage, ektelome:
R> flomarriage
kai parnoume:
Network attributes:
vertices = 16
directed = FALSE
hyper = FALSE
loops = FALSE
multiple = FALSE
2 TO D
IKTUO FLORENTINE 32
total edges= 20
Vertex attribute names:
vertex.names wealth priorates totalties
edgelist matrix:
[,1] [,2]
[1,] 9 1
[2,] 6 2
[3,] 7 2
[4,] 9 2
[5,] 5 3
[6,] 9 3
[7,] 7 4
[8,] 11 4
[9,] 15 4
[10,] 11 5
[11,] 15 5
[12,] 8 7
[13,] 16 7
[14,] 13 9
[15,] 14 9
[16,] 16 9
[17,] 14 10
[18,] 15 11
[19,] 15 13
[20,] 16 13
'Etsi, blpoume ti to dktuo Flomarriage periqei 16 koruf (oikogneie )

kai 20 akm (gmoi). H grafik anaparstash tou diktou auto gnetai
msw th entol :
R> plot(flomarriage)
pou lambnoume to ktwji sqma:
Sqma 2.1: To dktuo Flomarriage.

2 TO D
IKTUO FLORENTINE 33

Grafmato
Ja xekinsoume me to pio apl montlo pou uprqei, to opoo enai gnwst

w montlo Bernoulli Erdos - Renyi. H entol gia na to ektelsoume enai:
R> flomodel1.01 <- ergm(flomarriage~edges)
pou lambnoume:
Newton-Raphson iterations: 5
MLE Coefficients:
edges
-1.609
Mia arket pio eqrhsth, pio analutik kai qwr peritt plhrofore entol
enai h ktwji:
R> summary(flomodel1.01)
pou parnoume:
==========================
Summary of model fit
==========================
Formula: flomarriage ~ edges
Pseudolikelihood Results:
Estimate Std. Error MCMC s.e. p-value
edges -1.6094 0.2449 NA <1e-04 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 *** 0.001 ** 0.01 *
0.05 . 0.1 1
Warning:
The standard errors are based on naive pseudolikelihood
and are suspect.
Null Pseudo-deviance: 166.355 on 120 degrees of freedom

Residual Pseudo-deviance: 108.135 on 119 degrees of freedom
Pseudo-deviance: 58.221 on 1 degrees of freedom
AIC: 110.13 BIC: 112.92

2 TO D
IKTUO FLORENTINE 34
Aut pou ma endiafrei mesa enai h ermhnea tou montlou. Ap ,ti bl-
poume, to log-odds na uprqei mia akm enai 1.609, me antstoiqh pijanth-
ta 0.1667275 (= exp(1.609)/[1 + exp(1.609)]). To apotlesma aut to
perimname dedomnou ti h puknthta tou diktou upologzetai ti enai sh
me 0.16 (= 20/(16 15/2)).
Mia prosarmog pou mporome na dialxoume anafretai tso sti akm so

kai ta trgwna:
R> flomodel.02 <- ergm(flomarriage~edges+triangle)
me apotelsmata:
==========================
==========================
Formula: flomarriage ~ edges + triangle
Newton-Raphson iterations: 16 MCMC sample of size 10000
Monte Carlo MLE Results:

edges -1.6741 0.3509 0.004 <1e-04 triangle 0.1578
0.5904 0.007 0.79
---
Signif. codes: 0 *** 0.001 ** 0.01 * 0.05
. 0.1 1
Null Deviance: 166.355 on 120 degrees of freedom

Residual Deviance: 107.874 on 118 degrees of freedom
Deviance: 58.481 on 2 degrees of freedom
AIC: 111.87 BIC: 117.45

A dome pli p ermhneetai to parapnw dktuo. To log-odds na upr-
qei mia akm metax do korufn enai 1.674 (qwr h akm na prosjtei
kpoio trgwno sto dktuo). An h akm prosjsei na akrib trgwno sto
dktuo to log-odds metablletai w ex : 1.674 + 0.158 = 1.516, an pro-
sjsei do akrib trgwna sto dktuo to log-odds metablletai w ex :
1.674 + 0.158 2 = 1.358, k.o.k.
Oi antstoiqe pijanthte ja enai se me:
exp(1.674)/(1 + exp(1.674)) = 0.158,

exp(1.516)/(1 + exp(1.516)) = 0.180 kai
2 TO D
IKTUO FLORENTINE 35
exp(1.358)/(1 + exp(1.358)) = 0.204
Mia pol shmantik paratrhsh, h opoa gia prth for epishmanetai se

aut to shmeo, all ja epanalhfje arket for se lh thn ergasa, apo-
tele to gegon ti ta arijmhtik apotelsmata, dedomnou ti anafermaste
se stoqastik diadikase , ja diafroun ap ektlesh se epanektlesh, all
qi kat pol. H diaforopohsh ja auxnetai shmantik, tan to prosarmo-
smno montlo ekfulzetai (pw ja dome paraktw).
Ta antikemena tou R katqoun pnta mia klsh. Gia na dome thn klsh tou
flomodel.02, den qoume par na ektelsoume thn entol:
R> class(flomodel.02)
pou lambnoume:
[1] "ergm"
'Ena llo montlo prosarmog enai to ex , sto opoo ddetai barthta sto
qarakthristik wealth:
R> flomodel.03 <- ergm(flomarriage~edges+nodemain("wealth"))
me antstoiqa apotlesma:
R> summary(flomodel.03)
==========================
==========================
Formula: flomarriage ~ edges + nodemain("wealth")
edges -2.594929 0.536056 NA <1e-04 ***
nodecov.wealth 0.010546 0.004674 NA 0.0259 *
---
Signif. codes: 0 *** 0.001 ** 0.01 * 0.05
. 0.1 1
Warning:
The standard errors are based on naive pseudolikelihood
and are suspect.
2 TO D
IKTUO FLORENTINE 36

AIC: 107.11 BIC: 112.68
2.3 Statistik Diktou
Arqik a dome ta ergalea, ta opoa ma parqei to R kai ta pakta statnet,

ermg kai sna, gia th statistik melth twn diktwn. Gia na proume th lsta
twn diajsimwn statistikn analsewn, ektelome thn entol:
R> help("ergm-terms")
Ta onmata twn statistikn analsewn, pou prokptoun me thn ektlesh th

prohgomenh entol , qrhsimopoiontai san orsmata ent parenjsewn:
ergm (prosarmog en ergm montlou)

simulate (prosomowsh grafhmtwn ap mia ergm prosarmog)
summary (perlhyh statistikn analsewn)
O ktwji pnaka ma ddei tou rou auto kai ta aparathta proairetik

orsmat tou :
Term Undir? Dir? Required Optional
Basic terms
Edges X X
mutual X
Nodal attribute terms

Nodecov X X attrname
(nodemain) X X attrname
(nodefactor) X X attrname
Receivercov X attrname
Sendercov X attrname
Nodemix X X attrname
Nodematch X X attrname
absdiff X X attrname
smalldiff X X attrname
Relational attribute terms

dyadcov X X attrname
hamming X X network
2 TO D
IKTUO FLORENTINE 37
Degree terms
degree X vec. of degrees attrname
idegree X vec. of degrees attrname
odegree X vec. of degrees attrname
gwdegree X alpha, fixed
isolates X
Star terms
Kstar X vec. of degrees attrname
istar X vec. of degrees attrname
ostar X vec. of degrees attrname
m2star X
Cycle and triangle terms

triangle X X attrname
ctriad X attrname
ttriad X attrname
tripercent X X attrname
cycle X X vec. of cycle sizes
Actor-specific effects
receiver X
sender X
sociality X
Shared partner terms

esp (edgewise shared) X vec. of partners#s
dsp X vec. of partners#s
gwesp X alpha, fixed
gwdsp X alpha, fixed
Bounded terms
bounded.degree X bound, vec. of degrees
bounded.idegree X bound, vec. of degrees
bounded.odegree X bound, vec. of degrees
bounded.kstar X bound, vec. of degrees
bounded.istar X bound, vec. of degrees
bounded.ostar X bound, vec. of degrees
2.4 Prosomowsh Diktou
Aut pou ma endiafrei sthn prosomowsh enai kat pso ja lboume dktua,
ta stoiqea twn opown antapokrnontai qwr idiatere apoklsei sta arqik
2 TO D
IKTUO FLORENTINE 38
dedomna. Gia na to knoume aut, qrhsimopoiome thn ex entol:

R> flomodel.03.sim <- simulate(flomodel.03,nsim=10)
H parapnw entol ja dhmiourgsei 10 dktua, pw fanetai ap to risma
nsim=10, to opoo diaforetik mpore na ekteleste ap thn entol:
R> length(flomodel.03.sim$networks) [1] 10

Gia na dome ektenstera ti apotelsmata prokptoun ap autn thn pro-
somowsh, ektelome:
R> flomodel.03.sim$networks [[1]] Network attributes:
vertices = 16
directed = FALSE
loops = FALSE
total edges= 19
Vertex attribute names:
vertex.names wealth priorates totalties
edgelist matrix:
[,1] [,2]
[1,] 13 1
[2,] 15 1
[3,] 6 2
[4,] 15 2
[5,] 7 3
[6,] 8 3
[7,] 9 3
[8,] 7 4
[9,] 15 4
[10,] 14 5
[11,] 9 6
[12,] 9 7
[13,] 10 7
[14,] 11 7
[15,] 16 7
[16,] 16 9
[17,] 11 10
[18,] 12 10
[19,] 15 14
Sta apotelsmata aut, an anatrxoume sta arqik dedomna tou diktou,
blpoume ti qoume elqisth apklish me aut. Aut to gegon fanernei
me xekjaro trpo ti kname mia kal prosarmog, son afor to montlo
pou epilxame. Mia grafik anaparstash tou montlou ma se aut to shmeo
ja ma dexei ti diafor me to arqik dktuo:
2 TO D
IKTUO FLORENTINE 39
R> plot(flomodel.03.sim$networks [[1]])
Sqma 2.2: H prosomowsh tou prosarmosmnou diktou Flomarriage.
2.5 Prosarmog Montlou
Ja elgxoume ed kat pso kal ta montla ma prosarmsthkan sta arqik

ma dedomna, sugkrnonta thn omoithta twn prosomoiwmnwn grafhmtwn
me to arqik dktuo. Oi entol pou prpei na ektelsoume enai oi ex :
R> flomodel.03.gof <- gof(flomodel.03~degree,verbose=TRUE) R>

flomodel.03.gof R> plot(flomodel.03.gof)
H prth kai deterh entol qoun w apotelsmata:
Goodness-of-fit for degree

obs min mean max MC p-value
0 1 0 1.26 4 1.00
1 4 0 3.25 7 0.86
2 2 1 4.31 9 0.30
3 6 0 3.52 8 0.24
4 2 0 1.99 6 1.00
5 0 0 1.03 6 0.80
6 1 0 0.38 2 0.74
7 0 0 0.19 2 1.00
8 0 0 0.04 1 1.00
9 0 0 0.03 1 1.00
10 0 0 0.00 0 1.00
11 0 0 0.00 0 1.00
2 TO D
IKTUO FLORENTINE 40
12 0 0 0.00 0 1.00
13 0 0 0.00 0 1.00
14 0 0 0.00 0 1.00
15 0 0 0.00 0 1.00
en ap thn trth entol kai thn dignwsh th poithta th prosarmog
prokptei to paraktw sqma.
Goodnessoffit diagnostics
0.5
0.4
proportion of nodes
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
degree
Sqma 2.3: Dignwsh poithta prosarmog .
2.6 Ekfulism kai Diagnwstik
Enai gegon ti so kalterh enai h poithta prosarmog twn prosomoi-

wmnwn diktwn, se sqsh pnta me to up melth dktuo, tso kalterh enai
h ektmhsh th sunrthsh pijanofneia . To qeirtero senrio pou mporo-
me na bisoume enai ta prosomoiwmna dktua na enai telew diaforetik ap
to parathromeno dktuo. Aut mpore na sumbe gia duo lgou . O prto
mpore na enai h apotuqa sgklish tou algorjmou prosomowsh . O llo
2 TO D
IKTUO FLORENTINE 41
lgo sumbanei tan oi parmetroi tou montlou, pou qrhsimopoiontai gia

thn prosomowsh, apqoun arket ap ta MLE. O detero lgo profan
mpore na diorjwje me thn epilog katllhlwn paramtrwn.
A jewrsoume loipn arqik kpoia diagnwstik gia thn akrbeia tou algor-
jmou prosomowsh kai trpou beltws tou:
R> args(ergm) R> fit

<-ergm(flobusiness~edges+kstar(2:3)+triangle,interval=1, R+
burnin=0)
me apotelsmata:
Iteration 1 of at most 3: the log-likelihood improved by 0.4807

The instability of the model is: 2.8 Instabilities greater than 1
suggest the model is degenerate.
Gia na dome ta diagnwstik pou parqjhkan:
R> mcmc.diagnostics(fit,center=F)
Correlations of sample statistics:
, , cor
edges kstar2 kstar3 triangle
edges 1.0000000 0.8999023 0.7366523 0.4254382
kstar2 0.8999023 1.0000000 0.9510883 0.7219644
kstar3 0.7366523 0.9510883 1.0000000 0.8255294
triangle 0.4254382 0.7219644 0.8255294 1.0000000
, , lag1

edges 0.9894460 0.8893688 0.7261010 0.4216108
kstar2 0.8885878 0.9854299 0.9347240 0.7151514
kstar3 0.7253073 0.9345277 0.9793106 0.8167149
triangle 0.4213451 0.7154938 0.8173699 0.9934285
A elgxoume sto shmeo aut mia prokajorismnh prosarmog montlou:
R> fit <- ergm(flobusiness~edges+kstar(2:3)+triangle)

The instability of the model is: 3.2 Instabilities greater than 1
2 TO D
IKTUO FLORENTINE 42
suggest the model is degenerate.

edges 1.0000000 0.9502753 0.8492467 0.6948506
kstar2 0.9502753 1.0000000 0.9649674 0.8305583
kstar3 0.8492467 0.9649674 1.0000000 0.8647073
triangle 0.6948506 0.8305583 0.8647073 1.0000000
, , lag1

edges 0.5499252 0.5173059 0.4474066 0.4277306
kstar2 0.5205708 0.5097784 0.4559730 0.4665123
kstar3 0.4502072 0.4566472 0.4203904 0.4513915
triangle 0.4299360 0.4647376 0.4463613 0.5385043
Akmh endiafron ja tan na dhmiourgsoume to sunduasmno dktuo akmn

kai gia ti do sqsei maz Flomarriage kai Flobusiness:
R> combined <-

network((flobusiness+flomarriage)[,],directed=FALSE)
R> fit <- ergm(combined~triangle)

Correlations of sample statistics:

triangle
triangle 0.02229741
3 TO D
IKTUO FMH 43
3 To Dktuo FMH
3.1 Exerenhsh Diktou
To detero pardeigma enai na dktuo fila , pnw sto opoo ja efarmsoume

ti analsei th mejodologa tou montlou ekjetiko tuqaou grafmato
Markov, smfwna me ti shmeisei tou seminarou gia to statnet kai to ergm
twn Goodreau et al. (2008) [10. Aut to dktuo apoteletai ap sqsei fi-
la metax twn majhtn tou gumnasou Faux Magnolia High, pou brsketai
sti anatolik HPA. Se aut to dktuo ja anafermaste me to akrwnmio
FMH.
Afo fortsoume to statnet kai ti bibliojke tou ergm kai tou sna,
diabzoume ta dedomna tou diktou Faux Magnolia High:
R> data(faux.magnolia.high)
To dktuo aut to metonomzoume fmh:
R> fmh <- faux.magnolia.high

H entol pou ma dnei analutik ti perilambnei to dktuo enai:
R> fmh
Dedomnou mw ti to apotlesma th prohgomenh entol enai idiate-
ra ektetamno (perilambnei kai th lsta akmn tou diktou), mporome na
ektelsoume thn dia entol me thn paraktw sntomh morf:
R> summary(fmh)
opte parnoume:
Network attributes:
vertices: 1461
directed:
Mode FALSE
logical 1
hyper:
Mode FALSE
logical 1
loops:
Mode FALSE
logical 1
multiple:
Mode FALSE
3 TO D
IKTUO FMH 44
logical 1
bipartite:
Mode FALSE
logical 1
total edges= 974
density = 0.000913242
Vertex attributes:
vertex.names:
Length Class Mode

1461 character character
Race: Asian Black Hisp NatAm Other White

48 261 68 24 7 1053
Grade:
7 8 9 10 11 12
185 210 317 299 257 193
Sex:
F M
768 693
Blpoume ti to dktuo qei 1461 koruf kai 974 akm . Profan , upr-
qoun poll memonwmne koruf (memonwmnoi majht ). Epsh , blpoume
ti oi koruf (majht ) qoun tra qarakthristik: ful, bajmologa kai
flo (majhtn).
Gia na dome to dktuo FMH qwr ti memonwmne koruf ektelome thn

entol:
R> plot(fmh,displayisolates=FALSE)
kai prokptei to dktuo, pou fanetai sto sqma 3.1.
'Opw blpoume, uprqei mia meglh sunistsa kai arket lle , faner
mikrtere . Prpei na pome pli ti qoume {afairsei} ti memonwmne
koruf . An den ti afairosame, ja prokupte na arket pio pukn kai
{dusangnwsto} dktuo, pou fanetai sto sqma 3.2.
3 TO D
IKTUO FMH 45
Sqma 3.1: To dktuo FMH qwr ti memonwmne koruf .
Gia na proume tra thn katanom twn sunistwsn tou diktou ektelome
thn entol:
R> table(component.dist(fmh)$csize)
h opoa dnei:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 19 23 439
524 64 29 11 12 4 7 4 1 1 1 1 1 1
Mporome na sqedisoume to dktuo me ti koruf qrwmatismne anloga
th bajmologa twn majhtn (sqma 3.3). H entol qei w ex :
R> plot(fmh,displayisolates=FALSE,vertex.col="Grade")
3 TO D
IKTUO FMH 46
Sqma 3.2: To dktuo FMH me ti memonwmne koruf .
Gia na dome thn katanom twn bajmn (degrees) twn korufn:
R> fmh.degreedist<-table(degree(fmh,cmode="indegree"))
R> fmh.degreedist
parnoume:
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
524 403 271 128 85 30 13 5 2
H entol aut mpore na prei kai thn ex morf:
R> summary(fmh~degree(0:8))
Gia thn katanom twn bajmn anloga me ta qarakthristik twn majhtn, h
entol enai:
3 TO D
IKTUO FMH 47
Sqma 3.3: To dktuo FMH (qwr ti memonwmne koruf ) me ti koruf

qrwmatismne anloga th bajmologa twn majhtn.
R> summary(fmh~degree(0:8,"Attribute")),
pou sth jsh tou Attribute bzoume, kat antistoiqa, aut pou ma en-
diafrei (Grade, Sex, Race).
Kti idiatera endiafron enai ta trgwna, ta opoa emfanzontai sto dktuo

FMH. H entol gia thn arjmhsh twn trignwn qei w ex :
R> summary(fmh~triangle)
me apotlesma:
triangle
169
Mia entol pou mpore na dexei to p dhmiourgontai oi file anloga me
ta qarakthristik enai h mixingmatrix. A th dome p efarmzetai gia
ta tra qarakthristik tou diktou:
3 TO D
IKTUO FMH 48
R> mixingmatrix(fmh,"Grade")
Note: Marginal totals can be misleading
for undirected mixing matrices.
7 8 9 10 11 12
7 110 11 3 3 0 0
8 11 165 9 7 0 2
9 3 9 152 24 10 4
10 3 7 24 151 38 11
11 0 0 10 38 152 32
12 0 2 4 11 32 90
R> mixingmatrix(fmh,"Sex")
F M
F 430 285
M 285 259
R> mixingmatrix(fmh,"Race")
Asian Black Hisp NatAm Other White
Asian 7 4 0 1 0 35
Black 4 85 9 3 0 57
Hisp 0 9 1 0 0 48
NatAm 1 3 0 3 0 25
Other 0 0 0 0 0 5
White 35 57 48 25 5 691
'Opw blpoume, h kria diagnio tou mixing matrix gia th bajmologa

qei arket megaltere tim ap la ta lla stoiqea tou pnaka. Aut ma
deqnei ti majht me dia bajmologa qoun thn tsh na sunptoun euko-
ltera filik sqsei metax tou . All mw , den fanetai na isqei kti
antstoiqo gia to flo th ful twn majhtn.
3 TO D
IKTUO FMH 49

Grafmato
H melth ja xekinsei, pw kai sthn prohgomenh anlush tou diktou Flo-

rentine, me to pio apl montlo pou uprqei, to montlo Bernoulli Erdos -
Renyi. 'Eqoume loipn:
R> model1<-ergm(fmh~edges)
R> summary(model1)
kai parnoume:
==========================
==========================
Formula: fmh ~ edges
edges -6.99760 0.03205 NA <1e-04 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 *** 0.001 ** 0.01 * 0.05 .
0.1 1
Warning:
The standard errors are based on naive
pseudolikelihood and are suspect.
Null Pseudo-deviance: 1478525 on 1066530 deg. of freedom

Residual Pseudo-deviance: 15580 on 1066529 deg. of freedom
Pseudo-deviance: 1462944 on 1 deg. of freedom
AIC: 15582 BIC: 15594
En aut to dktuo eqe paraqje ap to sugkekrimno montlo, tte h ektmh-

sh (log-odds) gia ti akm ja tan sh me 6.998. 'Ara h pijanthta na
uprqei kpoia akm enai exp(6.998)/(1 + exp(6.998)) = 0.000913. H en-
tol summary(fmh) ma deqnei ti h puknthta tou diktou enai ntw sh me
0.000913, dhlad, to phlko twn akmn tou grafmato pro le ti dunat
akm pou ja mporose na qei to grfhma (974/((1461 1460)/2)).
H entol ergm perilambnei poll antikemena, ta opoa mporome na dome

ex :
3 TO D
IKTUO FMH 50
R> names(model1)
[1]"coef" "sample" "iterations" "mle.lik"
"MCMCtheta" "loglikelihoodratio" "gradient"
[8]"hessian" "covar" "samplesize" "failure"
"mc.se" "glm" "glm.null"
[15]"null.deviance" "aic" "theta1"
"offset" "drop" "network" "newnetwork"
[22]"formula" "constraints" "prop.weights"
'Omw ta plon endiafronta stoiqea gia thn anlus kai thn sgkrish tou
montlou enai oi suntelest (coefficients) kai h pijanofneia (likelihood):
R> model1$coef
edges
-6.997596
R> model1$mle.lik
[1] -7790.104
'Opw gnwrzoume ap ti empeire th efhbea , oi sqsei fila sto Gumnsi-

o den enai tuqae . To erthma pou tjetai enai p mporome na anakalyou-
me enallaktik upojsei gia thn uprqousa dom kai gia th diadikasa pou
th dhmiorghse. H apnthsh ddetai ap ti poll dunatthte montelopo-
hsh th mejodologa pou meletme.
'Ena kal montlo, gia na arqsoume, enai aut pou protenei mia tsh gia
taxinomhmnh anmeixh - dhlad, ti uprqei megalterh pijanthta sqhmati-
smo sundsewn metax atmwn th dia ful , flou bajmologa . Au-
t to montlo enai to katllhlo gia na proqwrsoume thn reuna, dedom-
nou ti emfanzei duadik anexarthsa. 'Opw exhgetai ap tou Hunter et
al. (2008b) [16], ttoia montla jewrontai genik ti enai pio ekolo na
prosarmoston ap ti lla montla kai h diadikasa prosarmog aut kje
aut den ephrezetai ap to en to montlo enai akatllhlo gia ta dedomna.
Se autn thn perptwsh aut apotele epsh mia arket logik upjesh pou
mpore na protaje gia ttoia montla.
A elgxoume loipn thn tsh gia taxinomhmnh anmeixh, h opoa enai omoimor-
fh gia kje klsh qarakthristikn dhlad, thn perptwsh pou uprqei h
dia tsh gia snayh sqsewn metax majhtn th dia ful (gia pardeig-
ma), anexrthta ap th ful, sthn opoa anafermaste. Aut to montlo
mpore na prosarmoste qrhsimopointa thn entol nodematch me to proka-
jorismno risma th diff=FALSE:
R> model2 <- ergm(fmh~edges+nodematch("Grade")+nodematch

R+ ("Race")+nodematch("Sex"))
R> summary(model2)
3 TO D
IKTUO FMH 51
Opte parnoume:
==========================
==========================
Formula: fmh ~ edges + nodematch("Grade") + nodematch("Race") +
nodematch("Sex")
edges -10.01277 0.11526 NA <1e-04 ***
nodematch.Grade 3.23105 0.08788 NA <1e-04 ***
nodematch.Race 1.19646 0.08147 NA <1e-04 ***
nodematch.Sex 0.88438 0.07057 NA <1e-04 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 *** 0.001 ** 0.01 * 0.05 .
0.1 1
Warning:
The standard errors are based on naive
pseudolikelihood and are suspect.
Null Pseudo-deviance: 1478525 on 1066530 deg. of freedom
Residual Pseudo-deviance: 13057 on 1066526 deg. of freedom
Pseudo-deviance: 1465467 on 4 deg. of freedom
AIC: 13065 BIC: 13113
A dome pio sunoptik mw aut pou ma endiafroun mesa:
R> model2$coef
edges nodematch.Grade nodematch.Race nodematch.Sex

-10.0127658 3.2310453 1.1964585 0.8843782
kai
R> model2$mle.lik [1] -6528.714
Blpoume ti kai oi tsserei roi enai shmantiko. Epsh blpoume mia dra-
matik axhsh sthn pijanofneia tou montlou auto se sqsh me to prto
montlo. Ja mporose kane na kane, an jele, nan tupik legqo tou
lgou pijanofanein metax twn do montlwn.
H ermhnea twn suntelestn auto tou montlou enai sqetik apl: to

log-odds en desmo, pou enai plrw eterogen (ta duo mlh diafroun
w pro th ful, to flo kai th bajmologa) enai 10.01. To log-odds
en desmo, pou enai omoiogen mno w pr th ful, enai 8.8163073
(= 10.0127658+1.1964585). Epiprsjeta, na desm , omoiogen w pro
3 TO D
IKTUO FMH 52
th bajmologa, qei log-odds 6.7817205 (= 10.0127658 + 3.2310453), e-

n, w pr to flo, 9.1283876 (= 10.0127658 + 0.8843782). Tlo ,
na desm , pou enai omoiogen kai sta tra qarakthristik (ful, flo
kai bajmologa) qei log-odds 4.7008838 (= 10.0127658 + 3.2310453 +
1.1964585 + 0.8843782).
Ereunnta ektenstera, mporome na dome ti akrib sullambnei kai ti qi

to montlo pou prosarmsame, w pro th dom twn arqikn ma dedomnwn.
Gia na to knoume aut, qrhsimopoiome thn prosarmog tou montlou, pou
dh qoume dhmiourgsei, gia na prosomoisoume na dktua kai na exetsoume
kat pso aut enai moia diafroun ap ta dedomna ma . H prosomowsh
diktwn sto ergm gnetai msw th entol simulate:
R> sim2<-simulate(model2,burnin=1e+6,verbose=TRUE) Starting 1

MCMC iteration of 1e+06 steps.
TNT sampler accepted 32.995% of 1000000 proposed steps.
Ap ti blpoume, to posost ton protsewn pou gnane dekt enai 33%. 'H,
alli , epeid allxame ton arijm twn bhmtwn sthn alusda th prosomow-
sh (thn tim tou burn-in) ap ton prokajorismno arijm 1.000 se 1.000.000,
mporome na pome ti 330.000 protsei ap ti sunolik 1.000.000 gnane
dekt . Epiprsjeta, to risma verbose=TRUE ma deqnei sta apotelsmata
to posost th epituqa th prosomows ma .
Kti pou krnetai idiaitrw qrsimo enai h extash twn mixing matrices gia
ta qarakthristik tou diktou gia na dome p aut mporon na sugkrijon:
R> mixingmatrix(sim2,"Sex")
F M
F 420 295
M 295 290
R> mixingmatrix(fmh,"Sex")
F M
F 430 285
M 285 259
R> mixingmatrix(sim2,"Race") Note: Marginal totals can be

misleading
Asian 0 6 0 0 1 20
Black 6 41 9 0 0 112
3 TO D
IKTUO FMH 53
Hisp 0 9 5 1 0 32
NatAm 0 0 1 0 0 16
Other 1 0 0 0 0 2
White 20 112 32 16 2 760
R> mixingmatrix(fmh,"Race")
Asian 7 4 0 1 0 35
Black 4 85 9 3 0 57
Hisp 0 9 1 0 0 48
NatAm 1 3 0 3 0 25
Other 0 0 0 0 0 5
White 35 57 48 25 5 691
R> mixingmatrix(sim2,"Grade")
7 8 9 10 11 12
7 64 6 9 8 12 3
8 6 89 15 12 4 10
9 9 15 234 14 17 8
10 8 12 14 214 19 10
11 12 4 17 19 146 7
12 3 10 8 10 7 104
R> mixingmatrix(fmh,"Grade")
7 8 9 10 11 12
7 110 11 3 3 0 0
8 11 165 9 7 0 2
9 3 9 152 24 10 4
10 3 7 24 151 38 11
11 0 0 10 38 152 32
12 0 2 4 11 32 90
Epsh , kti pou endiafrei mesa, enai h sgkrish th katanom twn baj-
mn:
R> plot(summary(fmh~degree(0:10)),type="l",lty=1)
R> lines(summary(sim2~degree(0:10)),lty=2)
Tlo , a dome kai th sgkrish tou pljou twn trignwn:
R> summary(fmh~triangle) triangle
169
R> summary(sim2~triangle) triangle
2
3 TO D
IKTUO FMH 54
500
400
summary(fmh ~ degree(0:10))
300
200
100
0
2 4 6 8 10
Index
Sqma 3.4: Sgkrish katanom bajmn metax twn diktuakn dedomnwn

FMH kai tou deterou montlou (model 2).
Ap ti blpoume, sta dedomna uprqoun 169 trgwna, en to montlo th

prosomowsh ma dwse mno 2. Fanetai loipn xekjara ti to sugkekri-
mno montlo den sunlabe th diadikasa, pou dhmiorghse ton parathromeno
arijm twn trignwn.
3.3 Anagnrish Ekfulismo tou Montlou
Gia na parathrsoume p akrib emfanzetai o ekfulism sthn prxh kai

p gnetai h dignws tou msw th ektmhsh tou montlou, pou qoume
epilxei, ja ergasjome pnw se na sugkekrimno pardeigma. Kat' arqn,
a knoume mia prosarmog me le ti prokajorismne (default) paramtrou
th entol ergm.
R> model3<-ergm(fmh~edges+triangle)

3 TO D
IKTUO FMH 55
The instability of the model is: 2.5 Instabilities greater

than 1 suggest the model is degenerate.
Krnonta ap to teleutao apotlesma, to montlo aut enai ekfulismno.

A analsoume ektenstera th dignwsh gia th diadikasa prosarmog mo-
ntlou MCMC:
R> pdf("model3diagnostics.pdf")
R> mcmc.diagnostics(model3)
R> dev.off()
Oi entol aut dhmiourgon na arqeo pdf, ap to opoo parnoume to sq-

ma 3.5, pou mporome na dome ti sumbanei sth statistik tou montlou
kat thn teleutaa epanlhyh th diadikasa ektmhsh MCMC (tra thn
epanlhyh 3, epeid h prokajorismnh tim tou maxit sto ergm enai 3). Oi
grafik parastsei sto arister mro deqnoun th qronik metabol th
alusda , en dexi ta antstoiqa istogrmmata. 'Eqei gnei h kanonikopohsh
w pro ta parathromena dedomna, pou ed antistoiqon sto 0. Se na
montlo, pou sugklnei, ttoie statistik metabllontai stoqastik grw
ap th msh tim, all den apoklnoun makri ap autn, pw sumbanei
tra. Epomnw , brskoume ti oi arqik ma ektimsei gia ti tim twn
suntelestn dhmiourgon dktua me pol perisstera trgwna ap aut pou
parathrontai sta dedomna, gegon to opoo kajist adnath thn ektmhsh
th mgisth pijanofneia . Aut enai mia kal ndeixh ti qoume na ekfu-
lismno montlo.
P alli ja mporosame na aniqneame ton ekfulism? 'Ena llo trpo

ja tan h qrhsimopohsh tou orsmato verbose:
R> model3 <- ergm(fmh~edges+triangle,verbose=TRUE)
Sta apotelsmata parnoume ta paraktw:
The density of the returned network is 0.00100512878212521

The density of the original network is 0.00091324200913242
Summary of simulation, relative to observed network:
edges triangle
Min. -165.00000 -36.00000
1st Qu. -61.00000 -7.00000
Median -31.00000 23.00000
Mean -29.52000 32.80000
3rd Qu. -1.00000 70.00000
Max. 150.00000 160.00000
std. err. 0.46992 0.49081
3 TO D
IKTUO FMH 56
Sqma 3.5: Diagnwstik MCMC tou trtou montlou.
std. t units. -62.81719 66.81999

p.value dev. 0.00000 0.00000
std. dev. 46.99207 49.08097
Tte blpoume ti se autn th sugkekrimnh prosomowsh h msh tim th

statistik akmn pftei xw pra pol, pw kai twn trignwn. Epiplon,
to dktuo, pou prokptei telik, qei puknthta sqedn do for megalterh
ap thn puknthta tou arqiko diktou. Lgw th isqur astjeia sthn
prosarmog tou montlou, kje for pou trqei kane autn thn entol ja
parnei shmantik diafor sta apotelsmata. Aut apotele mia llh ak-
ma ndeixh tou ekfulismo. 'Ena llo trpo dignwsh , pou qrhsimopoie
thn dia arq, enai na gnei h prosomowsh msw twn telikn ektimsewn twn
suntelestn kai sth sunqeia na sugkrije to prosomoiwmno dktuo me to
parathromeno w pro ti difore statistik tou montlou.
3 TO D
IKTUO FMH 57
Ap thn llh meri, prpei kane na enai prosektik na mhn apodeqje po-
l grgora ton ekfulism tou montlou. Ta problmata sgklish , pou
perigrfhsan, mporon, se orismne periptsei , na ofelontai qi epeid
to montlo enai ekfulismno, all apl epeid h alusda Markov den qei
afeje na trxei gia arket meglo qronik disthma ste na mporsei na ka-
lyei to deigmatoqro epark . Idiatera, kti ttoio mpore na sumbe, en
oi arqik tim th ektmhsh brskontai pol makri ap thn ektmhsh th
mgisth pijanofneia (MLE). Prin loipn katalxei kane sth dignwsh
tou ekfulismo, ja prpei na diereunsei kpoie epiprsjete epilog . Gia
aut to idiatero montlo, kama ap ti epilog aut den mpore na bohjsei
shmantik, all ja ti ektelsoume en edei exskhsh .
Mia mesh lsh ja tan h axhsh tou megjou diastmato kai twn do
tou degmato sto MCMC:
R> model3.take2 <- ergm(fmh~edges+triangle,MCMCsamplesize=1e+5,

R+ interval=1000,verbose=TRUE)
Sta apotelsmata, pro to tlo , blpoume ta paraktw sqlia:
Warning:
The network has more than 50000 edges, and the model is
likely to be degenerate.
Warning: The diagnostics indicate that the model is very
unstable.
They suggest that the model is degenerate,
and that the numerical summaries are suspect.
Oi do aut proeidopoisei apotelon kajar shmdi ti h sgklish qei

apotqei.
Mia llh lsh ja tan h mewsh tou mkou tou bmato h axhsh tou
sunoliko arijmo epanalyewn kai ta do:
R> model3.take3 <- ergm(fmh~edges+triangle,maxit=25,

R+ control=control.ergm(steplength=0.25),verbose=TRUE)
Sthn perptwsh aut, merik for to montlo dnei parmoia sflmata pw

to montlo model3.take2. 'Allote mpore na emfaniste mia tleia prosarmo-
g, me ti ektimsei twn suntelestn na stajeropoiontai grw ap to -7.28
kai to 4.95. 'Omw h eustjeia aut enai teqnht: Exetzonta ti diagnw-
stik MCMC kai- prosomoinonta ap ti arqik statistik mporome
na dome ti sthn pragmatikthta to montlo apotugqnei na sugklnei.
Mia telik epilog enai na jewrsoume nan enallaktik tpo ap to MCMC,

pou mpore na eisaggei kpoiou periorismo sth diadikasa ektmhsh . Sthn
3 TO D
IKTUO FMH 58
prokajorismnh tou morf to MCMC sto ergm den qei periorismo , all
diabajmzei thn epilog twn desmn (yi,j = 1) kai twn mh desmn (yi,j = 0)
tsi ste na exasfalzetai h epilog kje txh me sunolik pijanthta 0.5
anexrthta ap thn puknthta tou diktou. Sto statnet h lsh aut o-
nomzetai TNT (dhlad, tie/no-tie desm /mh-desm ). 'Omw , ja
mporose na epilege mia lsh, pou periorzei to deigmatik qro, p.q., me
th stajeropohsh tou sunoliko arijmo akmn tou bajmo kmbwn. Aut
mporon na epilegon prosjtonta to risma constraints=~edges con-
straints=~degrees sthn entol ergm, antistoqw . H lsh aut sthrzetai
sth jewrhtik pepojhsh ti oi periorismo mporon na sullboun th genik
ida th stoqastik diadikasa pou dipei to dktuo. An aut de sumbanei,
ja uprqei kpoio ekfulism . 'Alle epilog gia periorismo diabajm-
sei tou MCMC dnontai sthn ergasa twn Morris et al. (2008) [20] mporon
na brejon sth bojeia th entol ergm.
3.4 Mh Ekfulismna Montla Duadik Exrthsh
Sthn parosa enthta ja meletsoume mia ap ti prsfata protajese sta-

tistik , h opoa sqetzetai sten me thn parousa twn trignwn kai qei
apodeiqje sthn prxh perisstero eustaj ston ekfulism. Aut enai h
statistik GWESP (Geometrically Weighted Edgewise Shared Partner), thn
opoa eqame parousisei jewrhtik sthn enthta 1.5 (a jumsoume ti basi-
k bibliografik anafor : Snijders et al., 2006 [38], Robins et al., 2007b
[31] kai Hunter, 2007 [15]). Epeid emaste pepeismnoi se meglo bajm ti u-
fstantai oi diadikase th taxinomhmnh anmeixh se aut ti periptsei ,
ja prosjsoume aut th na statistik sto montlo 2. Oi statistik GW-
ESP qoun mia parmetro klimkwsh (), kaj epsh kai thn parmetro
tou sunjou suntelesto. An kai to ergm mpore na knei thn prosarmo-
g th MLE tautqrona kai gia ti do paramtrou , genik aut apaite
perisstero upologistik qrno mqri na ftsoume sth sgklish. Sthn e-
nthta aut, qrin aplthta , ja diereunsoume ta montla me stajer tim .
'Otan h parmetro klimkwsh enai sh me 0, oi statistik enai isodname

me ton arijm twn akmn, pou uprqoun se na toulqiston trgwno, en,
tan tenei sto peiro, oi statistik proseggzoun trei for ton arijm
twn trignwn. Epiplon, so pio mikr enai to , tso pio pijan enai to
montlo ma na mhn enai ekfulismno. Gia aut, xekinome me tim tou kont
sto 0 kai thn auxnoume, gia na dome kat pso kal ja tairizei to montlo
sto pragmatik pljo twn trignwn.
R> model4.take1 <- ergm(fmh~edges+nodematch("Grade")+

R+ nodematch("Race")+nodematch("Sex")+gwesp(0,fixed=TRUE),
R+ MCMCsamplesize=1e+5,control=control.ergm(steplength=0.25),
R+ maxit=15,verbose=TRUE)
3 TO D
IKTUO FMH 59
To prto gegon pou parathrome enai ti h ektmhsh gia na lbei qra

qreizontai ap 15 w 20 lept, anloga me thn isq tou hlektroniko ma u-
pologist. Aut mw pou ma endiafrei mesa kai prpei na exetsoume, kai
sth sunqeia na apofanjome, enai pso kal pge h prosarmog, poi enai
oi grafik parastsei th diagnwstik kai pse akm kai trgwna h pro-
somowsh perilambnei. H ermhnea twn suntelestn tou montlou GWESP
enai pio polplokh ap ta prohgomena montla duadik anexarthsa :
R> model4.take1$coef
edges nodematch.Grade nodematch.Race nodematch.Sex

-9.8093721 2.7835912 0.9298702 0.7870631
gwesp.fixed.0
1.7899988
W pardeigma, ja upojsoume ti qoume na zeugri drntwn, pou diaf-
roun se la ta qarakthristik tou . An den qoun koino flou , tte to
log-odds tou na gnoun floi enai 9.795. En qoun ton opoiodpote jetik
arijm koinn flwn kai kje na ap auto enai se na toulqiston tr-
gwno me lou tou llou , tte to log-odds autn na gnoun floi anrqetai
se 7.997 (= 9.795 + 1.798). Epiplon, en to eqe jetik tim (antjeta
me thn perptwsh aut pou = 0), tte to log-odds tou na gnoun floi
ja eqe auxhje montona (all up-grammik) w pro ton arijm twn koinn
filn. En kpoioi ap tou koino flou twn do drntwn den tan se
kpoia trgwna metax tou , tte to log-odds auxnetai akma perisstero:
sthn perptwsh = 0, prostjetai to 1.798 gia kje akm, pou den enai se
kpoio trgwno, kai to 1, tan oi do drnte gnoun floi.
A dokimsoume tra me kpoie diaforetik tim th paramtrou GWESP:

R+ nodematch("Race")+nodematch("Sex")+gwesp(0.1,fixed=TRUE),

R+ nodematch("Race")+nodematch("Sex")+gwesp(0.2,fixed=TRUE),
'Opw parathrome, oi mne diafor sta parapnw montla enai sthn tim
tou sto risma tou gwesp. O skop enai na epanalboume aut ti entol
gia diadoqik uyhltere tim tou , mqri tou to log likehood (logarijmik
pijanofneia) stamat na allzei se for jloume. O legqo th
proseggistik log likehood tou montlou gnetai msw twn entoln:
3 TO D
IKTUO FMH 60
R> model4.take1$mle.lik
me apotelsmata:
[1] -5604.138
[2] -5550.591
[3] -5500.916
Enallaktik, ja mporosame na prosomoisoume na perisstera dktua

kai na sugkrnoume to pljo twn trignwn tou me to arqik dktuo.
Prpei epsh na exetsoume tou suntelest gia ta difora montla. Aut

to knoume me th qrhsimopohsh th entol summary, pou ap ta apotelsma-
ta qoume bglei kpoia peritt stoiqea:
R> summary(model4.take1)

nodematch("Sex") + gwesp(0, fixed = TRUE)
Newton-Raphson iterations: 36 MCMC sample of size 1e+05
edges -9.81643 0.11273 0.002 <1e-04 ***
nodematch.Grade 2.78393 0.08627 0.001 <1e-04 ***
nodematch.Race 0.94487 0.07941 0.001 <1e-04 ***
nodematch.Sex 0.78186 0.06873 0.001 <1e-04 ***
gwesp.fixed.0 1.81277 0.05926 0.001 <1e-04 ***
---
AIC: 11218 BIC: 11278

nodematch("Sex") + gwesp(0.1, fixed = TRUE)
edges -9.78293 0.10464 0.002 <1e-04 ***
nodematch.Race 0.91287 0.07449 0.001 <1e-04 ***
nodematch.Sex 0.77491 0.06373 0.001 <1e-04 ***
3 TO D
IKTUO FMH 61
gwesp.fixed.0.1 1.80179 0.04885 0.001 <1e-04 ***

---
AIC: 11111 BIC: 11171

nodematch("Sex") + gwesp(0.2, fixed = TRUE)
edges -9.77943 0.10872 0.002 <1e-04 ***
nodematch.Race 0.89179 0.07415 0.001 <1e-04 ***
nodematch.Sex 0.78109 0.07066 0.001 <1e-04 ***
gwesp.fixed.0.2 1.79231 0.05958 0.001 <1e-04 ***
AIC: 11012 BIC: 11071
Parathrome ti, anexrthta th tim tou , loi oi roi enai statistik sh-
mantiko kai oi suntelest den allzoun kat pol. Epilgoume thn perptw-
sh = 0.2, gia na suneqsoume (ja mporosame na eqame prei opoiadpote
llh tim):
R> model4 <- model4.take3
Sto sqma 3.6 sugkrnoume ta tra m ekfulismna montla w pro th loga-

rijmik pijanofneia kai tou suntelest . Blpoume ti to montlo 4 prgma-
ti beltinei thn pijanofneia. Parathrome epsh th diafor metax twn
suntelestn tou montlou 4 kai tou montlou 2: oi suntelest auto elat-
tnontai me thn statistik twn nwn trignwn, en oi akm auxnontai (dh-
lad, gnontai ligtero arnhtiko). Tra, na omoiogen desm , pou klenei
na trgwno, enai perisstero pijan ap nan desm, pou den klenei na
trgwno, en kai oi do enai perisstero pijano ap tou antstoiqou ete-
rogene desmo .
3.5 Poithta Prosarmog
H sgkrish en memonwmnou apotelsmato th prosomowsh me to arqik

dktuo qei periorismnh axa. To epmeno logik bma, tra pou qoume na
montlo, to opoo arqzei na sullambnei ikanopoihtik th dom tou arqiko
diktou, enai na prosomoisoume poll dktua kai na sugkrnoume thn plrh
katanom twn statistikn, pou ma endiafroun, me ta parathromena dedo-
mna. A suneqsoume loipn me to montlo 4, prospajnta na dome an
3 TO D
IKTUO FMH 62
Sqma 3.6: Sgkrish montlwn.
enai pio apotelesmatik w pro thn arjmhsh twn trignwn ap to montlo

2. Ja qrhsimopoisoume na meglo disthma deigmtwn, gia na elattwje o
suntelest auto-susqtish metax diadoqikn deigmtwn:
R> sim4 <-simulate(model4,burnin=1e+5,interval=1e+5,nsim=100,

R+ verbose=TRUE)
Parathrome ti to posost twn apodektn bhmtwn paramnei sto 33% pe-

rpou dia msou th alusda sunoliko mkou 107 , kti pou apotele kal
shmdi mh ekfulismo. Epeid prosomoinoume perisstera ap na dktua
(100 prosomoisei ), to sim4 enai antikemeno diaforetik klsh ap to
sim1:
R> class(sim4)
[1] "network.series"
R> names(sim4)
[1] "formula" "networks" "stats" "coef"
R> class(sim4$networks[[1]])
[1] "network"
Gia na proume to pljo twn trignwn sto kje na ap ta 100 dktua, ja

prpei na qrhsimopoisoume ton paraktw kdika tou R:
R> model4.tridist<-sapply(1:100,function(x){summary(sim4
R+ $networks[[x]]~triangle)})
A dome p aut h katanom sugkrnetai me thn arqik (sqma 3.7):
R> hist(model4.tridist,xlim=c(50,200))
R> fmh.tri <- summary(fmh~triangle)
R> arrows(fmh.tri,20,fmh.tri,5,col="red",lwd=3)
Me thn entol:
3 TO D
IKTUO FMH 63
Histogram of model4.tridist
30
25
20
Frequency
15
10
5
0
50 100 150 200
model4.tridist
Sqma 3.7: Sgkrish trignwn se 100 prosomoisei tou montlou 4 (ist-

gramma) kai twn arqikn dedomnwn (kkkino blo ).
R> sum(fmh.tri <= model4.tridist)

mporome na dome pse prosomoisei san toulqiston to dio akrae me
thn parathromenh tim mno sthn pnw our th katanom . H apnthsh
enai 0 ap ti 100. Ta dedomna ma saf brskontai xw ap to kentrik
tmma tou 95% th prosomoiomenh katanom , molonti to montlo 4 apo-
tele mia shmantik beltwsh tou montlou 2 w pro to pljo twn trignwn.
Oi Goodreau et al. (2008) [10] qoun anaptxei kpoion kdika, pou ulopoie
autmata le ti parapnw fsei poithta prosarmog gia kpoie koin
katanom diktwn. Aut perilambnoun thn katanom bajmn, thn katanom
twn akmiak diamoirasmnwn etarwn (edgewise shared partners, dhlad, to
pljo twn akmn, sti opoe do floi qoun akrib k koino flou )
kai thn gewdaitik katanom (to pljo twn zeugn drntwn gia ta opoa
h plhsisterh metax tou diadrom qei mko k, gia kje tim tou k). A
dokimsoume prta na dome thn katanom twn bajmn:
R> gof4.deg <- gof(model4~degree,verbose=TRUE,burnin=1e+5,
R+ interval=1e+5)
O kdika aut prosomoinei na pljo diktwn (me prokajorismnh tim
100), upologzei ti statistik gia aut se sqsh me to arqik dktuo, kaj
kai ti p-tim . Molonti lh h plhrofora apojhkeetai sto antikemeno
gof4.deg kai mpore na diereunhje amsw , enai mllon eukoltero na exeta-
ste (toulqiston arqik) me mia apl grafik parstash twn dedomnwn.
3 TO D
IKTUO FMH 64
Gia na pargoume ta boxplots twn prosomoiomenwn statistikn maz me thn

arqik statistik, qrhsimopoiome thn entol:
R> plot(gof4.deg),
0.4
0.3
proportion of nodes
0.2
0.1
0.0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
degree
Sqma 3.8: Poithta prosarmog gia bajmo tou montlou 4.
H grafik parstash, pou prokptei, moizei me ekenh tou sqmato 3.8.

H suneq (qontr) marh gramm antistoiqe sthn katanom bajmn tou
arqiko diktou. Ta boxplots paristnoun thn katanom pnw se la ta 100
prosomoiomena dktua tou pososto twn korufn me ton antstoiqo bajm.
Oi diakekommne gramm ennoun ta tmmata tou 95% autn twn katanomn.
Gia ti pragmatik tim , maz me ti antstoiqe p-tim , prpei na trxoume
thn entol:
R> gof4.deg
Tte ja proume poll grafik parastsei , pou antistoiqon se lou
tou dunato bajmo , opte qoume sugkentrwmne le ti endiafrou-
se plhrofore .
3 TO D
IKTUO FMH 65
A parathrsoume ti akmh kai qwr ti plhrofore gia tou bajmo , to

montlo aut sullambnei pol ikanopoihtik thn katanom bajmn tou di-
ktou.
Tra a pme sthn katanom twn akmiak diamoirasmnwn etarwn kai sthn
katanom th gewdaitik apstash :
R> gof4.esp.dist <- gof(model4~espartners+distance,verbose=TRUE,

R+ burnin=1e+5,interval=1e+5)
Sto sqma 3.9 qoume th grafik parstash twn katanomn autn sthn
klmaka log-odds, h opoa lambnetai ap ti entol :
R> get(getOption("device"))(width=8,height=4)
R> par(mfrow=c(1,2))
R> plot(gof4.esp.dist,plotlogodds=TRUE)
Parathrome ti h prth gramm tou parapnw kdika dhmiourge to par-

juro twn grafikn me ti diastsei pou zhtome. H grafik parstash
arister antistoiqe sthn katanom twn akmiak diamoirasmnwn etarwn. H
statistik GWESP qei sumperilhfje sto montlo san mia parametrik mor-
f th katanom twn akmiak diamoirasmnwn etarwn. Me ton trpo aut,
sullambnoume basik th dom th katanom , molonti to montlo ma qei
uperektimsei to pljo twn akmn me nan diamoirasmno etaro kai qei u-
potimsei to antstoiqo pljo me do perissterou etarou .
Ap thn llh pleur, den qoume sumperilbei tpote sqetk me thn apstash
sto montlo ma , parti h apstash enai mia sunolik idithta tou diktou.
Gia aut, paramnoun anapnthta erwtmata pw : Pso kal tairizoun oi
prosomoiomene katanom apstash me thn parathromenh? Po ofelontai
oi diafor ? Mporome na epektenoume to montlo, gia na petqoume mia
kalterh poithta prosarmog ? Ttoia erwtmata diereunntai sth bibli-
ografa, pw oi Morris et al. (2008) [20], pou dnoun mia plrh lsta twn
diajsimwn orismtwn gia autn th diadikasa.
3 TO D
IKTUO FMH 66
0
0
logodds for an edge
logodds for a dyad

2
5
4
10
6
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1 4 7 11 15 19 23 27 31 35 39 43
edgewise shared partners minimum geodesic distance
Sqma 3.9: Poithta prosarmog tou montlou 4 gia thn katanom twn
akmiak diamoirasmnwn etarwn kai thn katanom th gewdaitik apstash .
4 TA D
IKTUA IPRED KAI SWPAT 67
4 Ta Dktua IPRED kai SWPAT

4.1 Exerenhsh Diktwn
Sto keflaio aut ja asqolhjome me ti analsei do diktwn sqhmatism-

nwn ap drnte , oi opooi qoun sunergaste sugkrouste metax tou sth
diamrfwsh do politikn th Eurwpak 'Enwsh gia ta pneumatik dikai-
mata kai to logismik (Boudourides & Haunss, 2008 [4]). Ta antstoiqa do
dktua ja anafrontai w IPRED kai SWPAT. Shmeiwton ti se kje par-
grafo arqik ja ergazmaste me to IPRED kai en suneqea me to SWPAT.
Arqzoume loipn me thn exerenhsh tou diktou IPRED. Kat' arqn, prpei
na kataskeusoume to dktuo (msw tou R) ap ta emepirik dedomna pou -
qoume. Epeid ta dedomna aut tan diajsima sto SPSS, msw tou Excel, ta
eisaggame sto statnet. Afo loipn fortsoume ta dedomna, proqwrme
sth melth tou diktou.
Arqik, mia metonomasa krnetai aparathth:

R> ipn <- IPRED_Network
Sth sunqeia, a dome thn perigraf tou diktou ma :
R> summary(ipn)
Network attributes:
vertices: 289
directed:
Mode FALSE
logical 1
hyper:
Mode FALSE
logical 1
loops:
Mode FALSE
logical 1
multiple:
Mode FALSE
logical 1
bipartite:
Mode FALSE
logical 1
total edges= 424
density = 0.01018839
4 TA D
Vertex attributes:
vertex.names:
Length Class Mode
IPRED_Actor_Coalitions:
ALDE Anti-Piracy-Coalition BSA CODE

1 13 62 35
COM EDRi EPP-ED
1 26 1
ETNO Greens-EFA GUE-NGL IFPI
39 1 1 50
MEP NetAlliance Other-Unknown
1 4 53
PSE
1
IPRED_Actor_Types:
Firm Indiv MEP-Party Orgs

122 1 6 160
IPRED_Positions:
Contra Neutral Pro

137 45 107
'Opw blpoume sto dktuo IPRED qoume 4 qarakthristik:
Tpoi drntwn: Etaire (mple qrma), 'Atoma (kkkino qrma), Mlh

Eurwpako Koinoboulou Kmmata (ktrino qrma) kai Organsei
(prsino qrma).
Topojetsei : Antjete (kkkino qrma), Oudtere (prsino qrma)

kai Jetik (mple qrma).
Summaqe drntwn.
Onmata drntwn.
Gia na proume ton plrh arijm twn sunistwsn (anloga tou megjou ),
ektelome:
R> table(component.dist(ipn)$csize)
me apotlesma:
4 TA D
289
1
'Etsi, blpoume ti uprqei mia mno meglh sunistsa me 289 drnte . 'Ara,
den uprqoun memonwmnoi drnte .
A dome mw mia anaparstash tou diktou ma :

R> plot(ipn)
Sqma 4.1: To dktuo IPRED.
Skpimo ja tan se aut to shmeo na dome to dktuo qrwmatismno analgw

twn qarakthristikn tou tpou twn drntwn kai twn topojetsen tou . Oi
antstoiqe entol enai:
R> plot(ipn,vertex.col="IPRED_Actor_Types"))
kai
R> plot(ipn,vertex.col=""IPRED_Positions""))
Ta sqmata, pou prokptoun, fanontai sthn epmenh selda.
Gia na proume thn katanom twn bajmn, ektelome:
R> ipn.degreedist<-table(degree(ipn,cmode="indegree"))
R> ipn.degreedist
4 TA D
Sqma 4.2: To dktuo IPRED qrwmatismno anloga me to qarakthristik

tou tpou twn drntwn.
Sqma 4.3: To dktuo IPRED qrwmatismno anloga me to qarakthristik

twn topojetsewn twn drntwn.
4 TA D
me apotelsmata:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 10 11 12 14 15
216 30 5 7 3 4 2 3 4 2 3 2 1
16 18 41 44 59 61 72
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Gia thn arjmhsh akmn kai trignwn:
R> summary(ipn~edges+triangle)
parnoume:
edges triangle
424 197
Kti idiaitrw shmantik apotelon oi pnake sundsewn (mixing matrices)

metax drntwn sta do qarakthristik (tpoi kai topojetsei ):
R> mixingmatrix(ipn,"IPRED_Actor_Types")

Firm 23 2 1 149
Indiv 2 0 0 1
MEP-Party 1 0 9 33
Orgs 149 1 33 206
R> mixingmatrix(ipn,"IPRED_Positions")

Contra Neutral Pro
Contra 139 32 32
Neutral 32 16 54
Pro 32 54 151
Sth sunqeia, ja knoume akrib thn dia melth kai gia to dktuo SWPAT.
Arqik h metonomasa:
R> swn <- SWPAT_Network

4 TA D
Met h perigraf tou diktou:
R> summary(swn)
Network attributes:
vertices: 691
directed:
Mode FALSE
logical 1
hyper:
Mode FALSE
logical 1
loops:
Mode FALSE
logical 1
multiple:
Mode FALSE
logical 1
bipartite:
Mode FALSE
logical 1
total edges= 1004
density = 0.004211498
Vertex attributes:
vertex.names:
Length Class Mode
SWPAT_Actor_Coalitions:
ALDE BSA COM EconomicMajorityCom
1 53 1 98
EDRi EICTA EICTA-SMEs
1 91 53
EPP-ED Eurolinux FFII Greens-EFA
1 286 1 1
GUE-NGL Independent MEP
1 1 1
Other-Unknown PatentFreiDe PSE UEN
84 15 1 1
SWPAT_Actor_Types:
533 9 8 141
SWPAT_Positions:
Contra Neutral Pro
407 70 214
4 TA D
Pli qoume ta dia qarakthristik sto dktuo SWPAT me to dktuo IPRED.

Gia to pljo sunistwsn (anloga megjou ):
R> table(component.dist(swn)$csize)
parnoume:
691
1
Pli uprqei mia meglh sunistsa me 691 drnte kai kajlou memonwmnoi
drnte .
H anaparstash tou diktou fanetai sto paraktw sqma:
R> plot(swn)
Sqma 4.4: To dktuo SWPAT.
Sth sunqeia, sthn epmenh selda, ja dome to dktuo qrwmatismno anloga

me ta qarakthristik tou tpou kai twn topojetsewn twn drntwn. Oi
entol enai:
R> plot(SWPAT,vertex.col="swn_Actor_Types"))
R> plot(SWPAT,vertex.col="swn_Positions"))
4 TA D
Sqma 4.5: To dktuo SWPAT qrwmatismno anloga me to qarakthristik

tou tpou twn drntwn.
Sqma 4.6: To dktuo SWPAT qrwmatismno anloga me to qarakthristik

twn topojetsewn twn drntwn.
4 TA D
Gia thn katanom twn bajmn:
R> swn.degreedist<-table(degree(SWPAT,cmode="indegree")) R>

swn.degreedist
parnoume:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 15
588 26 7 6 7 1 10 5 10 6 3 3 2 2
16 17 20 21 23 24 29 34 40 74 100 160 293

1 2 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1
H arjmhsh akmn kai trignwn:
R> summary(swn~edges+triangle)
dnei:
edges triangle
1004 723
Gia tou pnake sundsewn metax qarakthristikn (mixing matrices), par-

noume:
R> mixingmatrix(swn,"SWPAT_Actor_Types")

Firm 49 13 23 612
Indiv 13 2 10 31
MEP-Party 23 10 12 51
Orgs 612 31 51 201
kai
R> mixingmatrix(swn,"SWPAT_Positions")

Contra Neutral Pro
Contra 470 90 15
Neutral 90 48 74
Pro 15 74 307
4 TA D
4.2 Prosarmog Montlwn Ekjetikn Tuqawn

Grafhmtwn
H arqik prosarmog, pou ja pragmatopoisoume, ja enai kai h aplosterh

dunat, dedomnou ti se autn den endiafermaste gia kanna ap ta qarakth-
ristik, all mno gia ti akm :
R> model1 <- ergm(ipn~edges)

R> summary(model1)
==========================
==========================
Formula: ipn ~ edges
edges -4.57627 0.04881 NA <1e-04 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 *** 0.001 ** 0.01 * 0.05 . 0.1 1
Warning:
The standard errors are based on naive pseudolikelihood and are suspect.
Null Pseudo-deviance: 57692 on 41616 degrees of freedom

Residual Pseudo-deviance: 4733 on 41615 degrees of freedom
Pseudo-deviance: 52959 on 1 degrees of freedom
AIC: 4735 BIC: 4743.7
To pio shmantik sthn prosarmog aut enai o upologism th pijanthta

parxh mia sndesh . H pijanthta aut exgetai ap to log-odds twn
akmn msw tou tpou:
exp(logodds)
P = .
(1 + exp(logodds))
Tra qoume ti logodds = 4.57627 me antstoiqh pijanthta:
R> exp(-4.57627)/(1+exp(-4.57627))
[1] 0.01018835
4 TA D
Aut pou gnwrzoume kai perimnoume na isqei enai ti, epeid douleoume
me montlo akmn, h pijanthta parxh mia akm ja enai sqedn sh me
thn puknthta tou diktou, gegon to opoo epalhjeetai, pw mporome na
dome me thn entol summary(ipn), ap thn opoa parnoume thn puknthta
sh me 0.01018839.
H prosarmog tou montlou gia ta qarakthristik tpou kai topojetsewn

drntwn:
R> model2 <- ergm(ipn~edges+nodematch("IPRED_Actor_Types")+

R+ nodematch("IPRED_Positions"))
R> summary(model2)
dnei:
==========================
==========================
Formula: ipn ~ edges + nodematch("IPRED_Actor_Types") +

nodematch("IPRED_Positions")
edges -5.5291 0.1071 NA < 1e-04
*** nodematch.IPRED_actor_types 0.2967 0.0986 NA
0.00263 ** nodematch.IPRED_Positions 1.4363 0.1088 NA <
1e-04 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 *** 0.001 ** 0.01 * 0.05 . 0.1 1
Warning:

AIC: 4529.0 BIC: 4555
A dome tra ti gnetai me thn pijanthta parxh akmn anmesa se drn-

te , oi opooi qoun ta dia diaforetik qarakthristik. Gia to skop aut
ektelome thn entol:
4 TA D
R> model2$coef
edges nodematch.IPRED_Actor_Types nodematch.IPRED_Positions
-5.5290993 0.2966679 1.4363335
Ja qrhsimopoisoume tou ex sumbolismo :
Me sumbolzoume to log-odds twn plrw eterogenn (eterfilwn)

akmn/sundsewn (tso w pro ton tpo, so kai ti topojetsei
twn drntwn).
Me 1 = + sumbolzoume to log-odds twn merik omoiogenn (o-

moiofilikn) akmn/sundsewn mno w pro ton tpo twn drntwn.
Me 2 = + sumbolzoume to log-odds twn merik omoiogenn (omoio-

filikn) akmn/sundsewn mno w pro ti topojetsei twn drntwn.
Me 3 = + + sumbolzoume to log-odds twn plrw omoiogenn

(omoiofilikn) akmn/sundsewn (tso w pro ton tpo, so kai ti
topojetsei twn drntwn).
'Etsi, parnoume ti ex antstoiqe pijanthte :
P () = 0.003953868,
P (1 ) = 0.005312155,
P (2 ) = 0.01641892,
P (3 ) = 0.02196494.
Aut pou parathrome, smfwna me ti prosarmog pou pragmatopoisame,

sth dunamik tou diktou IPRED, to pio pijan apotlesma enai h plrh
omoiofila kai to ligtero pijan h plrh eterofila.
Sth sunqeia, knoume thn dia akrib melth kai gia to dktuo SWPAT.
Pragmatopoiome thn arqik prosarmog se na montlo akmn:
R> model1 <- ergm(swn~edges) R> summary(model1)
==========================
==========================
Formula: swn ~ edges
4 TA D
edges -5.46572 0.03163 NA <1e-04 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 *** 0.001 ** 0.01 * 0.05 . 0.1 1
Warning:

AIC: 12989 BIC: 13000
Sto dktuo aut qoume ti logodds = 5.46572 kai antstoiqh pijanthta:
R> exp(-5.46572 )/(1+exp(-5.46572 ))

[1] 0.004211483
Pli perimnoume h pijanthta parxh mia akm na enai sqedn sh me thn
puknthta tou diktou, gegon to opoo epalhjeetai, pw mporome na
dome me thn entol summary(swn), ap thn opoa parnoume thn puknthta
sh me 0.004211498.
H prosarmog tou montlou gia ta qarakthristik tpou kai topojetsewn

twn drntwn:
R> model2 <- ergm(swn~edges+nodematch("SWPAT_Actor_Types")+

R+ nodematch("SWPAT_Positions"))
R> summary(model2)
dnei:
==========================
==========================
Formula: swn ~ edges + nodematch("SWPAT_Actor_Types") +

nodematch("SWPAT_Positions")
4 TA D

edges -5.93875 0.07571 NA <1e-04
*** nodematch.SWPAT_Actor_Types -1.91587 0.07238 NA
<1e-04 *** nodematch.SWPAT_Positions 2.04967 0.08318 NA
<1e-04 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 *** 0.001 ** 0.01 * 0.05 . 0.1 1
Warning:

AIC: 11582 BIC: 11613
A dome tra ti gnetai me thn pijanthta parxh akmn anmesa se drn-

te , oi opooi qoun ta dia diaforetik qarakthristik. Gia to skop aut
ektelome thn entol:
R> model2$coef
edges nodematch.SWPAT_Actor_Types nodematch.SWPAT_Positions

-5.938753 -1.915869 2.049667
Qrhsimopointa tou diou sumbolismo , prokptoun oi ex pijanthte :
P () = 0.002628387,
P (1 ) = 0.0003878042,
P (2 ) = 0.02005366,
P (3 ) = 0.003003542.
Aut pou parathrome, smfwna me ti prosarmog pou pragmatopoisame,

sth dunamik tou diktou SWPAT, to pio pijan apotlesma enai h merik
omoiofila w pro ti topojetsei twn drntwn kai to ligtero pijan h
merik omoiofila w pro ton tpo twn drntwn.
5 PAR
ARTHMA 81
5 Parrthma
5.1 To Peribllon R
5.1.1 Genik Parousash
Sto parrthma aut ja knoume mia pol sntomh parousash tou peribllon-
to R, to opoo apotele na oloklhrwmno pakto elejerou logismiko, pou
qrhsimopoietai gia th diaqerish dedomnwn, upologismo , grafik anapa-
rastsei kai gia statistik analsei (Venables & Smith, 2008 [42]). To
peribllon R diatjetai elejera ap ton isttopo http://cran.r.org/.
'Otan qrhsimopoiome to R se peribllon Windows prn ap ton stajer kr-

sora uprqei na smbolo th morf >, en se peribllon UNIX, to opoo
ed qrhsimopoiome, na smbolo th morf $.
A dome tra poia enai h akoloujomenh diadikasa narxh tou R tso se

peribllon Windows so kai se peribllon UNIX .
Sto men UNIX, arqik ftiqnoume na xeqwrist sub-directory, stw to

work, sto opoo ja apojhkeoume ta arqea dedomnwn, pou ja prokptoun
ja qrhsimopoihjon sto R gia th sugkekrimnh anlush pou knoume. Aut
ja enai kai to working directory ma gia th sugkekrimnh anlush. Oi
krie entol narxh enai oi ex :
$ mkdir work
$ cd work
Sth sunqeia, xekinme to prgramma R me thn entol:
$ R
kai met qrhsimopoiome ti opoiesdpote entol qreizontai. Tlo , klenou-

me to prgramma me thn entol
$ q()
Mli ektelsoume thn entol kleismato , ja erwthjome an jloume na a-

pojhkesoume ti qei prokyei kat thn dirkeia th ergasa ma sto R. Se
merik sustmata ja prokyei na plasio dialgou, en se kpoia lla na
text prompt, pou ja klhjome na apantsoume nai, qi akrwsh. Pro-
soq qreizetai sto gegon ti szetai sthn ousa h doulei ma kai qi oi
entol san epexergsimo kai mesa diajsimo kemeno. Dhlad, an jloume
na knoume kpoie tropopoisei sto arqeo aut kajaut, apl de mporo-
me. H mnh lsh enai na ssoume thn doulei ma san text arqeo, opte
kai ja mporome na epembanoume an psa ra kai stigm. Apl me autn
5 PAR
ARTHMA 82
ton trpo, ja qreiaste na kpoia parapnw enter gia na epanekteleste

lh h ergasa ma tan ja xanafortnoume ti entol ma . Tlo , an apojh-
keute h doulei ma san text arqeo, skpimo enai na qrhsimopoisoume to
UTF8 format, alli oi entol se kpoia epanektlesh ja fortwjon san
akatalabstikoi ASCII qaraktre .
Se peribllon Windows, h diadikasa enai basik h dia. Kat' arqn, dhmiour-

gome na fkelo, o opoo ja apotele to working directory ma . Sth
sunqeia, knoume dipl klk sto eikondio tou R, gia na xekinsei to pr-
gramma kai allzoume to default working directory me aut pou qoume
ftixei w ex : knoume mon klk sto File, met mon klk sto change
directory kai eisaggoume to monopti (path), pou odhge sto working
directory, pou qoume ftixei. H eisagwg tou monopatio gnetai grapt
me qrsh tou browse.
W pro to trto bma (qrhsimopohsh twn entoln pou ja ma qreiaston),

uprqei mia enswmatwmnh leitourga sto R parmoia me thn man sto peribl-
lon UNIX. Gia na lboume perisstere plhrofore gia opoiadpote entol,
paradegmato qrh, th solve, h ektelomenh entol enai h paraktw:
$ help(solve)
$ ?solve
Ap teqnik poyh , to R enai mia glssa me idiatera apl suntaktik.

Enai case sensitive, pw ta perisstera pakta, pou enai basismna sto
UNIX. Aut shmanei ti ta A kai a enai diaforetik smbola kai profan
antistoiqon se diaforetik metablht . To snolo twn sumblwn, pou mpo-
ron na qrhsimopoihjon sto R, exarttai mesa ap to leitourgik ssthma.
Kanonik, la ta alfarijmhtik smbola epitrpontai sun th telea kai th
ktw pala , me ton periorism ti na noma prpei na xekinei me telea
grmma kai, an xekinei me telea, o detero qaraktra de mpore na enai
arijm . Oi entol diaqwrzontai metax tou me ellhnik erwthmatik. E-
piplon, oi apl entol mporon na omadopoihjon msa se gkistra.
Ta sqlia xekinon me kai ektenontai kat mko ekenh th gramm . A-

kmh, an mia entol den enai plrh mqri to tlo th gramm , tte to
smbolo > $ allzei kai gnetai + sthn epmenh gramm.
Se poll ekdsei tou, tso se peribllon UNIX so kai Windows, to R pa-

rqei nan mhqanism anklhsh kai epanektlesh prohgomenwn entoln.
Aut gnetai me to plktro tou pnw blou .
5 PAR
ARTHMA 83
An oi pro ektlesh entol enai apojhkeumne se na exwterik arqeo,

stw to Commands.R sto working directory work, tte aut mporon na
ekteleston opoiadpote stigm me thn entol:
$ source ("Commands.R")
5.1.2 Pakta
'Ole oi sunartsei tou R, kaj kai ta snola twn dedomnwn, enai apojhk-
eumna se pakta (packages). Mno tan fortnoume na pakto, ta peri-
eqmen tou enai diajsima. To R prosfrei th dunatthta se proqwrhmnou
epipdou qrste na dhmiourgsoun ta dik tou pakta, kti pou profan
fanetai na enai idiatera eqrhsto. Epeid mw sto parrthma aut knou-
me apl mia eisagwg sto R, de ja anaferjome sto exeidikeumno aut jma.
Gia na dome tra poia pakta enai diajsima, ektelome thn entol:
$ library(),
qwr kpoio risma msa sti parenjsei . Gia na fortsoume na sugkekri-

mno pakto, p.q., to boot, ektelome thn entol:
$ library(boot)
Oi qrste , pou enai sunedemnoi sto diadktuo, mporon na qrhsimopoisoun

ti entol install.packages() kai update.packages() me to noma tou
paktou msa sti parenjsei . Profan , h prth entol egkajist kpoio
pakto th areskea ma , en h deterh enhmernei kpoio pakto, to opoo
enai dh egkatesthmno sto R. Gia na dome mia lsta me diajsime bohjhtik
odhge gia na pakto, ektelome thn entol:
$ help.start(),
me to noma tou paktou na topojetetai msa sti parenjsei .
Ta basik pakta jewrontai mro tou phgaou kdika tou R. Periqoun ti

basik leitourge , pou epitrpoun sto R na douleei, kaj epsh kai ta
snola dedomnwn, ti tupik statistik kai ti grafik leitourge gia thn
anaparstash twn dedomnwn kai twn apotelesmtwn.
5.1.3 Diansmata
To R leitourge me onomatismne dom dedomnwn. H pio apl dom, all kai

h perisstero qrhsimopoiomenh, enai to arijmhtik dinusma, pou apotele-
tai ap na diatetagmno snolo arijmn. 'Estw x loipn na dinusma, pou
apoteletai ap pnte arijmo , tou 10.4, 5.6, 3.1, 6.4 kai 21.7. Tte aut
mpore na oriste sto R me tou paraktw do trpou :
5 PAR
ARTHMA 84
$ x <- c(10.4, 5.6, 3.1, 6.4, 21.7)
$ assign("x", c(10.4, 5.6, 3.1, 6.4, 21.7))
'Opw kai stou pragmatiko arijmo , tsi kai sta diansmata, oi stoiqei-
dei arijmhtiko telest enai oi + , - , * , / kai .
Sti perisstere periptsei , o qrsth den endiafretai gia to en oi arij-

mo se na dinusma enai akraioi, pragmatiko kai akmh migadiko. 'Etsi,
h tetragwnik rza tou -17
sqrt(-17)
ja epistryei Nan kai kpoia eidopohsh, all to
sqrt(-17 + 0i)
ja knei tou upologismo me migadiko arijmo .
To R parqei epsh thn dunatthta dhmiourga apln akoloujin. Para-

degmato qrh, h entol 1:30 enai to dinusma c = (1, 2, 3, . . . , 29, 30). H
entol 30:1 mpore na qrhsimopoihje gia na ftixoume thn akolouja pro ta
psw (w fjnousa). 'Ena pio oloklhrwmno kai genik trpo jewretai
h qrhsimopohsh th sunrthsh seq(). Aut parnei do orsmata, pou dia-
qwrzontai me kmma, me to prto na apotele thn arq th akolouja kai
to detero to tlo th . To bma jewretai stajer kai so me th monda
se auto tou trpou paragwg akoloujin. Me thn teleutaa entol
uprqei mw mia mikr diaforopohsh. Oi entol seq(1, 30), seq(from
= 1, to = 30) kai seq(from = 30, to = 1) enai le die kai se kai
dhmiourgon thn akolouja 1:30. Epomnw , sthn pragmatikthta, me thn en-
tol seq() orzetai kai to bma. 'Etsi, p.q., en jloume thn akolouja 5,
4.8, ...,4.8, 5, pou xekinei ap ton arijm -5 kai katalgei ston arijm 5,
me bma 0.2, h ektelomenh entol enai h:
$ seq(-5, 5, by=.2)
Ekt ap ta arijmhtik, to R qeirzetai kai ta logik diansmata. Ta stoi-

qea en logiko diansmato mporon na proun ti tim TRUE (alhj ),
FALSE (yeud ) kai NA (gnwsth).
Ta logik diansmata dhmiourgontai ktw ap sugkekrimne sunjke . P.q.,

h entol temp <- x > 13 dhmiourge to dinusma temp, pou parnei thn tim
5 PAR
ARTHMA 85
TRUE, tan to x enai megaltero tou 13 kai thn tim FALSE, tan to x enai
mikrtero tou 13.
Oi qrhsimopoiomenoi logiko telest enai oi <, , >, , == gia akrib

isthta kai ! = gia anisthta. Epiplon, an ta c1 kai c2 apotelon logik
ekfrsei , tte to c1 & c2 enai h tom (to logik kai) kai to c1 | c2 enai
h nwsh (to logik ). Akmh an jloume thn rnhsh tou c1 tte h entol
enai h !c1.
BIBLIOGRAF
IA 86
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PANEPISTHMIO PATRWN

METAPTUQIAKO PROGRAMMA SPOUDWN:

PATRA, IOUNIOS 2009

Arqik anafrw ton epiblponta kajhght mou k. Mwus Mpountourdh. H

En suneqea, ja jela na anafrw tou kajhght mou sto Panepistmio Pa-

En katakledi, ofelw na meglo euqarist sto flo kai sundelfo Miqal

1 Montla Ekjetikn Tuqawn Grafhmtwn Markov 3

4 Ta Dktua IPRED kai SWPAT 67

To prto keflaio dnei mia sunoptik parousash th diatpwsh tou probl-

Sto detero, trto kai ttarto keflaio th ergasa efarmzoume ti parap-

2. To dktuo Faux Magnolia High.

3. Ta dktua IPRED kai SWPAT.

Se aut ta keflaia, parousizoume ti diadikase th prosarmog , proso-

1 Montla Ekjetikn Tuqawn Grafhmtwn

Sto keflaio aut ja akoloujsoume ti ergase twn Robins et al. (2007a)

Onomzoume parathromeno dktuo ta empeirik dedomna en grafmato

Gia pardeigma, na ap ta endiafronta zhtmata, enai na brome en sto

Genik, ta up suzthsh domik qarakthristik ma bohjon na sqhmatsoume

'Opw anaframe, anaparistome ta dktua san (mh kateujunmena) graf-

Bbaia, ex arq , de gnwrzoume poi tim twn paramtrwn prpei na qrhsi-

odhg. Smfwna me to basik kritrio th megsth pijanofneia , epil-

mia jetik parmetro amoibaithta . En mporsoume na ektimsoume thn pa-

'Otan qoume orsei thn katanom pijanottwn se lo to snolo twn grafhm-

tht tou kai mporome epsh na sugkrnoume ta grafmata aut me to

San pardeigma, a jewrsoume th sqsh th fila se mia sqolik txh. To

A parathrsoume ti h upjesh, pou knoume, enai ti to dktuo dhmiourge-

1.1.1 Genik Plasio Kataskeu Montlwn

Deqmeno thn parxh en montlou ekjetiko tuqaou grafmato gia -

paraktw pnte bmata. En to endiafron th reuna brsketai sto teli-

Bma Prto: Oi desmo w tuqae metablht

Aut to bma emperiqei na stoqastik plasio gia thn anlush grafhm-

Jewrnta tou diktuako desmo w tuqae metablht , mnei na xanajumh-

H upjesh aut enswmatnei ti topik koinwnik diadikase , pou upot-

sunepgetai mia morf duadik exrthsh . Oi desmo mpore epsh na e-

Bma Trto: H upjesh exrthsh kai h idiaterh morf tou montlou

Mpore na apodeiqje ti kpoie kal orismne upojsei exrthsh sune-

Bma Ttarto: Aplopohsh twn paramtrwn msw omoiogneia llwn pe-

Gia na orsoume na montlo xekjara, prpei na meisoume ton arijm twn

Bma Pmpto: Ektmhsh kai ermhnea twn paramtrwn tou montlou

Bebaw h ektmhsh kai h ermhnea sunjw gnontai sto plasio sugkekri-

th abebaithta , mporome na qrhsimopoisoume to statistik montlo tou

1.2 H Genik Morf twn Montlwn Ekjetikn

Ta montla ekjetikn tuqawn grafhmtwn qoun thn akloujh morf:

stoiqe sto sqhmatism A, gA (y) = 1, en o sqhmatism parathretai sto

'Ola ta montla ekjetikn tuqawn grafhmtwn enai th morf th exsw-

Giat loipn oi upojsei exrthsh enai shmantik ed? Oi upojsei

kn me to montlo. Parathrome ti ap thn parapnw perptwsh (ii), oi

Axzei na parathrsoume ti, en na snolo pijann akmn anaparist -

All bebaw , den uprqei kama egghsh ti le oi pijan akm se na do-

Mporome na skeftome ti ta grafmata sthn katanom, dhmiourgontai ap

pojsoume ti uprqei amoibaithta sth diadikasa, pou dhmiourge to dktuo.

Epeid h exswsh (1) perilambnei nan ekjetik ro sto dexi mlo th ,

1.2.1 Periorismo Paramtrwn

Parathrome ti h exswsh (1) anafretai se diaforetiko sqhmatismo su-

Aut enai, profan , poll parmetroi kai to montlo de mpore na ektimh-

sqhmatismo. Gia pardeigma, jewrnta th sqsh th amoibaithta , o Pa-

enai dioi, tan agnoome ta qarakthristik twn kmbwn (opte oi sqhma-

'Otan knoume autn thn upjesh th omoiogneia , pargoume na montlo me

Arqik anafrw ton epiblponta kajhght mou k. Mwus Mpountourdh. H

En suneqea, ja jela na anafrw tou kajhght mou sto Panepistmio Pa-

En katakledi, ofelw na meglo euqarist sto flo kai sundelfo Miqal

1 Montla Ekjetikn Tuqawn Grafhmtwn Markov 3

4 Ta Dktua IPRED kai SWPAT 67

To prto keflaio dnei mia sunoptik parousash th diatpwsh tou probl-

Sto detero, trto kai ttarto keflaio th ergasa efarmzoume ti parap-

2. To dktuo Faux Magnolia High.

3. Ta dktua IPRED kai SWPAT.

Se aut ta keflaia, parousizoume ti diadikase th prosarmog , proso-

1 Montla Ekjetikn Tuqawn Grafhmtwn

Sto keflaio aut ja akoloujsoume ti ergase twn Robins et al. (2007a)

Onomzoume parathromeno dktuo ta empeirik dedomna en grafmato

Gia pardeigma, na ap ta endiafronta zhtmata, enai na brome en sto

Genik, ta up suzthsh domik qarakthristik ma bohjon na sqhmatsoume

'Opw anaframe, anaparistome ta dktua san (mh kateujunmena) graf-

Bbaia, ex arq , de gnwrzoume poi tim twn paramtrwn prpei na qrhsi-

odhg. Smfwna me to basik kritrio th megsth pijanofneia , epil-

'Otan qoume orsei thn katanom pijanottwn se lo to snolo twn grafhm-

tht tou kai mporome epsh na sugkrnoume ta grafmata aut me to

San pardeigma, a jewrsoume th sqsh th fila se mia sqolik txh. To

A parathrsoume ti h upjesh, pou knoume, enai ti to dktuo dhmiourge-

1.1.1 Genik Plasio Kataskeu Montlwn

Deqmeno thn parxh en montlou ekjetiko tuqaou grafmato gia -

paraktw pnte bmata. En to endiafron th reuna brsketai sto teli-

Bma Prto: Oi desmo w tuqae metablht

Aut to bma emperiqei na stoqastik plasio gia thn anlush grafhm-

Jewrnta tou diktuako desmo w tuqae metablht , mnei na xanajumh-

H upjesh aut enswmatnei ti topik koinwnik diadikase , pou upot-

sunepgetai mia morf duadik exrthsh . Oi desmo mpore epsh na e-

Bma Trto: H upjesh exrthsh kai h idiaterh morf tou montlou

Mpore na apodeiqje ti kpoie kal orismne upojsei exrthsh sune-

Bma Ttarto: Aplopohsh twn paramtrwn msw omoiogneia llwn pe-

Gia na orsoume na montlo xekjara, prpei na meisoume ton arijm twn

Bma Pmpto: Ektmhsh kai ermhnea twn paramtrwn tou montlou

Bebaw h ektmhsh kai h ermhnea sunjw gnontai sto plasio sugkekri-

Ta montla ekjetikn tuqawn grafhmtwn qoun thn akloujh morf:

stoiqe sto sqhmatism A, gA (y) = 1, en o sqhmatism parathretai sto

'Ola ta montla ekjetikn tuqawn grafhmtwn enai th morf th exsw-

Giat loipn oi upojsei exrthsh enai shmantik ed? Oi upojsei

kn me to montlo. Parathrome ti ap thn parapnw perptwsh (ii), oi

Axzei na parathrsoume ti, en na snolo pijann akmn anaparist -

All bebaw , den uprqei kama egghsh ti le oi pijan akm se na do-

pojsoume ti uprqei amoibaithta sth diadikasa, pou dhmiourge to dktuo.

Epeid h exswsh (1) perilambnei nan ekjetik ro sto dexi mlo th ,

1.2.1 Periorismo Paramtrwn

Parathrome ti h exswsh (1) anafretai se diaforetiko sqhmatismo su-

Aut enai, profan , poll parmetroi kai to montlo de mpore na ektimh-

enai dioi, tan agnoome ta qarakthristik twn kmbwn (opte oi sqhma-

Akmh kai an squan kpoioi logiko periorismo th omoiogneia , to montlo

H aplosterh upjesh exrthsh enai gia tuqae katanom grafhmtwn

tro afor thn pijanthta emfnish en desmo.4 H parmetro kaletai

arijm twn amoibawn (antapodidmenwn) desmn sto y. Mia elafr pio

1.3.3 Tuqaa Grafmata Markov

smfwna me thn opoa na pijan desm ap to i sto j jewretai ti exar-

En epsh upojsoume thn omoiogneia, prokptei to montlo tuqaou graf-

Sqma 1.1: Sqhmatismo kai parmetroi gia ta montla tuqawn grafhmtwn

Gia pardeigma, na montlo tuqaou grafmato Markov gia na mh kateuju-

Prpei na parathrhje ti oi statistik sto montlo Markov sqetzontai me-

'Eqoun epsh anaptuqje diaforetik epexergase auto tou basiko mont-

Uprqoun pollo trpoi gia na eisaqjon oi epidrsei twn qarakthristikn

montla koinwnik epilog , sta opoa ta qarakthristik upotjetai ti pro-

Sqma 1.2: (A-H) Sqhmatismo gia na montlo qarakthristikn Markov

Parathrome ap to sqma 1.2 ti oi mnoi mh duadiko sqhmatismo me qarakth-

Teleutaa qoun anaptuqje difore epexergase montlwn ekjetikn tuqa-

ta montla, pou exartntai ap thn ulopohsh, mporon na analujon msw

1.4.1 Ektmhsh Yeudo-Pijanofneia

H qrsh th megsth yeudo-pijanofneia gia thn ektmhsh diadrastikn mo-

H ektmhsh th yeudo-pijanofneia katanoetai kaltera metasqhmatzonta

O upologism th statistik twn metaboln qei suzhthje ekten ap

Aut h diadikasa moizei me mia logistik palindrmhsh , sthn pragmatikth-

1.4.2 Ektmhsh Monte Carlo Mgisth Pijanofneia gia thn

Prsfate shmantik exelxei sti teqnik ektmhsh Monte Carlo gia ta

Arqik, parathrome ti h prosomowsh autn twn montlwn mpore na ulopoi-

brsketai sto epkentro th ektmhsh Monte Carlo th mgisth pijanofnei-

Molonti uprqoun diafor anmesa sti diaforetik teqnik ektmhsh

Ap melte tso th ektmhsh so kai th prosomowsh dhmiourgjhkan

pijanthta (sunjw aut enai ete to plre ete to ken grfhma). En to

To gegon enai ti difore teqnik ektmhsh Monte Carlo enai plon

ta duo. Sugkekrimna, dnoume mfash sthn qrhsimthta th na nnoia twn