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Global Auto Executive Survey 2010
Global Auto Executive Survey 2010
kpm g i nt e r n a t i o n a l
Contents
Chapter Page
1 Survey methodology 2
2 Executive summary 3
3 Introduction 4
4 The growth prospect 6
Executive view: volume automaker – Europe 8
Overcapacity is now critical 9
Emerging markets are becoming overbuilt 11
5 The performance angle 12
Executive view: mid-size automaker – US 14
No easy cost savings expected 15
Capital costs to remain high 17
M&A set to grow 18
Debt and technology needs will drive M&A 20
6 Product innovation and consumer change 22
Fuel efficiency and environment top of consumer concerns 24
Low-cost producers to win most market share 26
Hybrid technology rated clear leader 28
Executive view: large Tier 1 supplier – US 30
R&D will win most investment 31
7 Investing in new markets 34
Executive view: diversified supplier – emerging market 36
BRIC sales forecasts continue to grow 37
Smaller emerging markets to gain 40
© 2010 KPMG International. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International.
KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties,
nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved.
Foreword 1
Foreword
KPMG’s Global Auto Executive Survey And there are huge technology challenges
2010 was conducted at the end of a historic to be met. Last year companies told
year for the auto business. The intensity of us that fuel efficiency and emissions
the crisis that engulfed the entire industry improvements were top of their agenda.
can hardly be underestimated. This year they are still top of their agenda.
Last year we surveyed an industry that Meanwhile, companies face the challenge
had been plunged, very suddenly, into of financing the cycle of innovation – and
total uncertainty. As one of the large let us not forget that we are still in the
automakers interviewed as part of this middle of a rapid innovation cycle – while
year’s report said, “a year ago we were consumers feel they are poorer than
Dieter Becker in the middle of nowhere … anything before, and less inclined to spend. That,
Global Chair, Automotive was possible.” say our respondents, means that companies
KPMG ELLP are likely to have to compete on technology
This crisis was in part a consequence and on cost. That is a tall order.
of success. Auto products are better
than they have ever been: with today’s Meeting that challenge inevitably means
high levels of reliability and longevity, more change – more change in the structure
many customers can defer the purchase and in the practices of the auto industry.
of a new vehicle. So when confidence If anything is clear from what respondents
collapsed on a global scale at the end are saying to us today, it is that change has
of 2008, that is exactly what customers only just begun.
did. Sales plummeted in almost every
market, while financial conditions became
intolerable even for companies with
moderate levels of indebtedness. The
destruction of large segments of the
world’s auto industry – and other
industries too – became a real possibility.
KPMG’s Global Auto Executive Each year we ask executives to describe In last year’s survey a number of questions
Survey 2010 is the 11th consecutive themselves and their companies. In earlier were restricted to regional companies.
annual survey of senior global auto surveys automakers and suppliers describing In the present survey all companies were
themselves as Tier 1, Tier 2 and Tier 3 offered the opportunity to respond to all
executives carried out by KPMG
companies participated. However, the questions, irrespective of the region in
International. This year the survey is increasing difficulty of finding a large which the company was headquartered.
more extensive than in previous sample of Tier 3 suppliers that are of The result is a greatly expanded sample
years: 200 respondents from 24 sufficient size to participate in the survey base throughout the current survey.
countries took part in the survey (with revenues in excess of US$100 million)
between mid-September and early meant that in last year’s survey no respondents Some questions elicited no response from
November 2009, including chose to describe themselves as Tier 3 some respondents; therefore total results
companies in the Americas, Asia suppliers, and results from Tier 2 and Tier 3 may be less than 100 percent.
Pacific, Europe, Africa and the suppliers in data from earlier years were
Middle East. All survey questions grouped together. In the current survey
relate to the coming five-year KPMG restricted the survey to Tier 1 and
Tier 2 suppliers. In almost all cases this
period, extending to 2014, unless
permits direct year-on-year comparisons
specifically stated otherwise. of results from Tier 1 and Tier 2 suppliers
– in only one case (noted in the text),
comparative data from 2007 includes
some results from Tier 3 suppliers.
11.50%
4%
3% 38.50%
47%
40%
6%
50.00%
© 2010 KPMG International. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International.
KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties,
nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved.
4 KPMG Global Auto Executive Survey 2010
Chapter 3: Introduction
Last year’s KPMG Global Auto Executive Yet the worst was avoided. Exceptional But we are left with a world that has
Survey reported on an industry falling into government intervention helped to shield changed: a deep restructuring of the
crisis. Sales were collapsing, growth the industry from the worst of the fall in automotive industry has begun, and
expectations were swinging from positive demand, and allowed some companies continues. One dimension of this has
to negative, investment schedules were to begin to rebuild themselves behind the been a significant transfer of automotive
being torn up, and for more than one large wall of temporary bankruptcy. Above all, technology to the emerging world.
company, bankruptcy loomed. the sudden loss of confidence in demand Existing producers with lower costs have
and growth in the big emerging economies seen their businesses strengthened.
This year, we report on an industry that was counteracted by an equally sudden And with a global market that has clearly
has confronted the crisis, and has just resurgence, as it became clear that shrunk, many established producers are
begun to emerge into a landscape of emerging world growth was much more having to confront the fact that competition
greater stability. In many ways the crisis resilient than pessimists feared. The for sales is likely to be much, much
was much worse than the gloomiest stabilization and subsequent recovery of tougher in the next few years than any
predictions. Bankruptcy became a reality asset prices against a background of less time in the last two decades.
for a number of large automakers, as volatile energy costs helped immeasurably.
demand fell further and faster than As one European automaker interviewed
expected, and as the ability of indebted for this report commented: “this last year
businesses to finance themselves simply has made us confront reality”.
evaporated.
© 2010 KPMG International. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International.
KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties,
nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved.
© 2010 KPMG International. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International.
KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties,
nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved.
6 KPMG Global Auto Executive Survey 2010
The current survey shows that the gradual All emerging economy regions are On a regional basis, pessimism on
reorientation of growth expectations away expected to contribute growth: not only revenues in the Americas is strongest
from the mature economies and toward Asia (excluding Japan), but also Eastern in European and Asian companies.
Asia and other significant emerging Europe and Russia. The balance of Companies in the Americas are slightly
economies has passed a tipping point. expectations for Western Europe is now more positive both regarding their own
Although previous surveys show that even between companies expecting region, and on growth prospects in Asia.
companies have consistently been some decline and companies expecting
forecasting a decline in the growth trend some improvement (most expect little
for some years, the great majority of change), but the balance Increase
is negative for Stable Decline
companies now locate all their significant both Japan and North America: more
growth expectations for the next five companies now expect decline in those
years in the emerging world. regions than expect improvement.
ica
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42.00%
76.00% 28.00% 50.00%
52.50%
47.00% 44.50%
47.00%
36.00%
24.50%
21.50%
20.00%
19.00%
© 2010 KPMG International. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International.
KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties,
nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved.
The growth prospect 7
What are your forecasts for auto industry revenues in the following regions and countries?*
• Companies in the Americas most optimistic on emerging economy growth * Percentage of companies
expecting improvements
• Japan rated lowest growth market by EMEA companies
• Broad regional consensus on high Eastern European and Asian growth
86.67%
74.20%
69.23%
48.71%
46.67%
45.16%
41.66%
38.46%
30.00%
29.03%
26.67% 27.42% 27.42%
23.08%
19.36% 19.23%
18.34% 18.34% 17.74%
16.66%
14.11%
North America Western Europe Japan Eastern Europe & Asia (excluding Central & South Middle East &
Russia Japan) America Africa
Americas Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) Asia Pacific (ASPAC)
© 2010 KPMG International. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International.
ASPAC
EMEAto obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties,
KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any authority
nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved.
8 KPMG Global Auto Executive Survey 2010
This Europe-headquartered global “My confidence level has increased As for the global picture, I think the next
automaker with significant significantly in the last 12 months. A year five years are going to see the industry
manufacturing and sales in all ago we were in the middle of nowhere – challenged to compete both on technology
not just in the auto industry; it applied to all and on cost. In technology we have a huge
regions of the world says that more
businesses. Nobody knew what the next challenge ahead of us, especially in CO2
than ever the key to success is 24 months would bring. Anything was reduction where expectations are enormous.
product excellence. possible. But now we have some clarity. And on the cost front there is no reason to
expect our mature-economy consumers
Consumer demand has recovered better to become very much wealthier over the
than we expected a year ago. It is still next few years, so there is also going to be
going to take a long time to recover fully, a strong focus on affordability.
but the important thing is that recovery
is predictable. The last year has shown us that the
winners in tough situations are always
I share the general faith in demand from the companies with strong products at
the emerging markets. From the consumer affordable cost. If you have weak products
point of view these markets are simply you are going to suffer even with a good
better placed than the US or Europe or cost situation. That is irrespective
Japan. In the past these economies were of segment or market”
highly dependent on foreign direct
investment for their growth, but now they
are generating their own trade surpluses,
they have growth that is not investment-
dependent, and some of them are still
benefiting from very low interest rates.
© 2010 KPMG International. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International.
KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties,
nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved.
The growth prospect 9
For several years KPMG’s Global The result is one of the most striking in Those companies that do see overcapacity,
Executive Auto Survey has asked the survey. After a year of unprecedented are more likely to rate the level of
companies about their perceptions of change in the structure of the auto overcapacity higher in North America than
overcapacity: the extent to which the industry, one in which automakers – elsewhere, with a consensus of around
manufacturing capacity of the industry is including the large US manufacturers 25 percent overcapacity, although a
overbuilt is a key determinant of profitability – and suppliers closed capacity around significant minority see higher levels –
now and the likely path of restructuring the world, the industry still believes one in ten companies thinks overcapacity
through mergers, acquisitions and that overcapacity in the established in North America is more than 40 percent,
divestments in the coming five years. manufacturing “triad” – North America, for example.
In the current survey these questions Europe and Japan – remains very high.
were expanded to provide an insight
into industry perceptions of regional Companies see more overcapacity in
overcapacity. (It is worth noting that North America than in other regions,
these questions on overcapacity relate but in all cases the majority sees
to long-term capacity: companies were significant overcapacity.
asked to rate levels of overcapacity over
a whole business cycle, and not just
overcapacity in relation to the current
year’s market).
9.00% 3.00%
37.50%
35.80%
88.00%
13.64%
10.22%
2.84%
13.00%
6.50%
37.27%
80.50%
30.43%
18.01%
9.32%
4.97%
Yes
No 1-10% 11-20% 21-30% 31-40% More
DK/Refuse than 40%
Yes No
Don’t know
8.50%
16.50%
35.33%
75.00%
32.00%
17.33%
8.67%
6.67%
Yes
No 1-10% 11-20% 21-30% 31-40% More
DK/Refuse than 40%
Yes No
Don’t know
© 2010 KPMG International. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International.
KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties,
nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved.
The growth prospect 11
ia
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Ru
Ch
Br
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s
30.68%
30.99% 28.57%
43.27%
43.18%
29.76%
33.10%
27.88%
7.14%
5.63% 6.82%
11.9%
7.04% 2.88% 5.68%
1.92%
© 2010 KPMG International. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International.
KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties,
nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved.
12 KPMG Global Auto Executive Survey 2010
Who will best be able to make profits companies believe that higher profits will
against this background of falling revenue accrue to companies better able to leverage
expectations? Industry expectations of the whole of the supply chain, with higher
profitability by company type over the next profits expected of automakers, and the
five years are strikingly negative – especially lowest expectation for Tier 3 suppliers.
when companies are asked about the On a regional basis, profitability corresponds
profitability of their own type of company. roughly to revenue expectations, with the
Overall, it is unsurprising that in an era best outlook in ASPAC.
expected to be highly competitive
40.50%
33.00% 40.50% 44.50%
22.00%
31.50%
34.50%
39.50%
42.50%
36.50%
36.00% 38.50%
40.00%
27.50%
22.50%
18.50% 19.50%
14.50%
© 2010 KPMG International. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. Member firms of the KPMG network Increase
of independent firmsStable Decline
are affiliated with KPMG International.
KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties,
nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved.
The performance angle 13
51.61%
46.67%
32.26%
30.00%
30.64%
30.00%
27.42%
25.64%
25.81%
23.07%
23.34%
22.58%
21.67%
20.00%
17.95%
13.33%
10.26%
8.97%
8.97%
Automakers Tier 1 suppliers Tier 2 suppliers Tier 3 suppliers Financial services Dealers
Americas Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) Asia Pacific (ASPAC)
© 2010 KPMG International. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International.
KPMG International provides no client services. EMEA firmASPAC
AmericasNo member has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties,
nor*does
Percentage of companies
KPMG International expecting
have improvement
any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved.
14 KPMG Global Auto Executive Survey 2010
This subsidiary of a Japanese- “Over the last year my confidence level When the cash assistance scheme ended,
owned global manufacturer remains has not improved much. Unfavorable sales plummeted. There just isn’t the natural
extremely cautious about long-term fundamentals in the market have been with demand in the market. So it is going to be
us for some time now, but if anything it is a very difficult 12 months, at least. But we
sales and profit prospects.
getting harder for people to sustain their are going to have to grow our way out of it.
spending. No, I’m not much more confident. Government can’t go on making sales for us.
We have cut capacity. Perhaps not as much Growth is the challenge, and that means
as we should have done. If it weren’t for investment is the challenge. When you look
our contract with the United Auto Workers at the return on a dollar of investment in China
we would have done a lot more. We have or in India, and you look at the return in the
changed the product mix as well – the old big US, the US does not look attractive. So the
SUV products, for example, are just not future is going to be all about operating more
viable any more. Our competitive offers now efficiently. We just cannot afford to waste
are in compact and crossover vehicles. money on anything inefficient.
When we started developing small SUVs
people thought we were crazy – but now we The winners from what has happened in
are developing crossovers that are even 2009 will be primarily the Korean companies.
smaller, and people understand what we are They have the lowest cost of production in
doing. These are the cars people want. the US. That means they can profit in this
very weak market. But Japanese companies
The government assistance scheme in the also have low costs – lower than the
US certainly had an impact, although of domestic US makers, even after all the
course it was not as great as we might have restructuring. The Japanese also have the
hoped. Whether a company benefits from a culture, the camaraderie and the dedication
cash assistance program like that depends a on the factory floor. If the domestic US
lot on the level of inventory it holds. We gave automakers cannot reproduce that, they
up on the strategy of holding high inventory will never prosper.”
and waiting for a miracle a long time ago –
but when “cash-for-clunkers” came in, we
just didn’t have the inventory. The Koreans
on the other hand do hold very high
inventories, so they had a home run.
© 2010 KPMG International. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International.
KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties,
nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved.
The performance
4/Beyond crisis: challenges angle
and opportunities 15
Falling expectations of both revenues and white-collar salaries is higher – this year’s
profitability over the next five years imply survey is the first in which companies
a continued intense concern with cost-saving have been asked to distinguish between
opportunities. Yet in the current survey the wage and salary savings opportunities).
overall picture is that company expectations
of finding cost-saving opportunities have On a regional basis (results not shown
fallen somewhat: in particular, there is less in chart) ASPAC companies are more
expectation of finding savings through likely to view new design technologies as a
overhead cost-reduction and supply chain cost-saving opportunity. Companies in the
innovation, and more interest in Americas are clearly more concerned than
implementing advanced IT in design. other regions about salary costs and see
There is a low expectation of finding this as a cost opportunity, while European
savings through cutting wage costs companies continue to focus more on
(the opportunity for making savings in low-cost country sourcing.
What are the cost-saving opportunities for auto manufacturers and suppliers?*
65.00%
62.00%
61.00%
59.00%
58.00%
57.00%
55.00%
50.00%
48.00%
47.00%
46.00%
46.00%
46.00%
43.00%
43.00%
38.00%
30.50%
29.00%
28.00%
27.00%
23.50%
21.50%
x x x x x x x
* Percentage of companies seeing cost saving opportunities
Product Low-cost Computer Overhead Supply Marketing Tax Salary Wage Health care
materials country modeling cost chain and sales efficiency costs costs/direct
innovation sourcing reduction management labor
What are the cost-saving opportunities for auto manufacturers and suppliers?*
* Percentage of companies seeing
• OEMs see higher cost saving opportunities cost-saving opportunities
• Materials innovation, computer modeling and low-cost sourcing top opportunities for OEMs
• Tier 2 suppliers most likely to cut labor costs
• Wage and benefits cost opportunities rated low by most companies
68.83%
66.24%
65.21%
62.34%
60.00%
56.52%
54.00%
51.95%
52.17%
51.00%
47.83%
48.05%
47.00%
45.00%
43.48%
43.48%
42.86%
39.13%
34.78%
33.00%
31.17%
29.00%
26.00%
25.00%
24.67%
23.00%
22.08%
18.19%
17.39%
7.09%
Supply Tax Salary costs Wage costs/ Low cost Marketing Product Overhead Computer Healthcare
chain efficiency direct labor country and sales materials cost modeling
management sourcing innovations reductions
The sudden contraction in late 2008 in the The chart shows company expectations
availability of capital for consumers and of improvement. They expect the
companies, and the increase in borrowing improvement to be less apparent in
costs which remain high despite low policy corporate financing than in consumer
interest rates, have been key components financing, and European companies are
of the auto business crisis of the last year. most pessimistic about an early return
In the current survey, companies were to easy finance.
asked for the first time how they expected
financial conditions for consumers and
companies to evolve.
51.67%
41.94%
37.10%
34.62%
33.87%
33.34%
31.67% 32.06%
30.65%
25.64% 25.00%
14.10%
Americas Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) Asia Pacific (ASPAC)
Americas firms are affiliated
© 2010 KPMG International. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent EMEA ASPAC
with KPMG International.
KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties,
nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved.
18 KPMG Global Auto Executive Survey 2010
73.00%
72.00%
71.00%
70.50%
65.00%
60.00%
56.00%
52.00%
52.00%
51.00%
48.50%
47.00%
43.00%
x
Automakers Tier 1 suppliers Tier 2 suppliers Tier 3 suppliers Dealers
© 2010 KPMG International. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International.
2007 2008
KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG2009
x Noany
International or data for 2007
other member firm vis-à-vis third parties,
nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved.
The performance angle 19
How will M&A in these regions develop over the next five years?
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8.50% 7.00%
5.00% 5.50%
6.50% 8.00%
28.00% 30.50% 28.00% 7.00%
30.50% 55.00%
57.00%
60.00%
64.00% 64.50%
62.00%
59.00%
35.00%
30.00%
25.50%
© 2010 KPMG International. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International.
KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties,
nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved.
20 KPMG Global Auto Executive Survey 2010
95.00%
89.00%
84.00% 85.00%
82.00% 83.00% 83.00%
80.00%
74.00% 75.00%
73.00%
67.00%
65.00%
47.00%
33.00%
30.00%
x
Debt and risk of Access to new Access to new Raw materials and Labor cost Pension and Potential for
bankruptcy technologies and markets and cost pressures pressures health cost product synergies
products customers pressures
x No data for 2007
2009 2008 2007 X No data for 2007
2009 2008 2007
© 2010 KPMG International. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International.
KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties,
nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved.
The performance angle 21
51.67%
What will drive M&A over the next five years from
a regional perspective?*
* The four largest regional
• Americas and EMEA level of global consensus disparities shown
on M&A drivers is high
• Americas companies more concerned with market access
• ASPAC more concerned with raw materials cost pressure
95.00%
90.00% 88.46%
87.18%
83.33% 83.33%
77.42%
72.58%
67.74%
66.13%
51.67%
47.44%
Americas Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) Asia Pacific (ASPAC)
© 2010 KPMG International. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. Member firms of the KPMG EMEA
network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International.
KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties,
nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved.
22 KPMG Global Auto Executive Survey 2010
When asked about their long-range Cost reduction has moved slightly lower But there are differences – ASPAC
priorities, automotive companies have while environmental concerns continue companies are markedly more concerned
consistently told KPMG’s Global Auto to rise higher on the corporate agenda. than others with managing labor, and
Executive Survey that their highest-ranking Managing labor relations remains a low markedly more concerned with product
concerns are with new technology and new priority. quality (the proportion of ASPAC
products. That remained the case in the companies rating it “very important”
current survey: both new products and new Regional results show very similar as against “moderately important” is
technologies have moved higher in the patterns, suggesting as in earlier surveys high). ASPAC companies are also more
ranking of concerns from an already high that the broad shape of priorities remains concerned with pricing, while companies
leading position in last year’s survey. the same in all regions of the world: auto in the Americas and in Europe prefer to
companies tend to take a global view. prioritize total affordability.
How important today are the following issues to the global auto industry?*
* Percentage of companies rating
• Companies are shifting focus from quality improvement to new products issues as important
• Total affordability and pricing seen as less important than innovation
96.00%
90.00%
86.00%
84.50%
85.00%
85.00%
83.00%
82.00%
81.00%
80.50%
79.00%
74.50%
72.00%
72.00%
69.00%
65.00%
64.00%
64.00%
63.00%
62.00%
59.00%
49.50%
49.50%
x
* Percentage of companies seeing cost saving opportunities
Developing Developing new Reducing Meeting Pricing and Improving Improving total Managing labor
new products technologies costs environmental sales incentives product quality affordability relations
demands
C
s
PA
ica
AS
er
Am
C
PA
s
ica
AS
EA
er
EA
32.26%
EM
Am
EM
45.00%
as
ic
38.71%
C
er
PA
Am
PA
AS
33.33% 36.67%
39.74%
AS
EA
s
EM
ica
30.65% 26.67%
er
43.55%
Am
EA
30.77%
EM
28.33% 43.55%
26.92%
32.05%
30.00% 30.65%
28.33% 28.33%
25.81%
24.36%
17.95%
15.00%
11.29%
10.26%
Extremely Somewhat
In qualitative interviews which accompanied In the current survey fuel efficiency and the inclined to rate consumer preferences as
the preparation of the current survey, environmental profile of products continue “very important” than are companies in
companies repeatedly stated that they to be considered by companies the most other regions. The relatively low priority
believe that adaptation to changing significant consumer buying issues. But ascribed to telematics is consistent with
consumer demand will be an important on a regional basis it is clear that consumer results last year – globally, telematics
key to survival in the coming five years. concerns are believed to differ: the high received the highest number of “not
The survey questions on drivers of rating accorded to safety is due to ASPAC important” scores. Overall, the efficiency
consumer buying give an insight into companies citing this issue – and on of vehicles is believed to dominate
just how companies will do that. all issues ASPAC companies are more consumer concerns.
96.00%
93.50%
84.00%
80.50%
75.00%
72.00%
71.00% 70.00%
50.00%
2007
2009 2008
2008 20072009
How important are these product issues to consumer purchase decisions over the next five years?*
* Percentage of companies rating
• Asian companies now rate styling, comfort and safety significantly higher than others issues as important
• Asian companies also most likely to rate environment as top consumer concern
• Fuel efficiency for all regions most important
95.00%
93.55%
92.31%
83.87%
80.77%
79.03%
76.67%
74.19%
70.00%
67.75%
65.39%
58.98%
56.45%
56.67%
50.00%
50.00%
45.00%
44.87%
40.00%
35.90%
33.33%
Safety innovation Environmental Ergonomics Fuel efficiency Enhanced vehicle Telematics/ Vehicle styling
friendliness and comfort lifespan personal assistance
services
Americas Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) Asia Pacific (ASPAC)
Americas EMEA ASPAC
© 2010 KPMG International.*KPMG
Percentage of companies
International rating
is a Swiss issue as important
cooperative. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International.
KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties,
nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved.
26 KPMG Global Auto Executive Survey 2010
Company expectations of market Two significant winners emerge Both Mercedes and BMW are also seen
share gain and loss have changed in in year-on-year comparisons: as better placed to win market share, both
significant ways. Chinese and Indian Hyundai/Kia is one – a result that may companies having defied expectations of
brands remain in the top three places in reflect the success of Korean automakers a collapse of premium vehicle sales.
terms of expectation of market share in profiting from government sales
gain, but conviction is slightly lower subsidies during 2009 – and VW is the
than in last year’s survey. Both Toyota second. Market share gain expectations
and Honda are expected to win market for the big three US makers remain low
share at a lower rate than in previous and Chrysler has fallen further, although
years, and there has been a fall in Fiat, now the key actor in Chrysler’s
expectation for Russian brands. Overall immediate future, is rated higher in terms
we note that the top six rated companies of market share prospects than in the
have either very strong cost or product previous year.
advantages, or both.
How will market share by company change in the next five years?
s
oe
an
or
ds
ss
ot
itr
en
ds
an
ia
ds
lM
t/C
i
s
/N
ag
de
i/K
an
br
an
i
eo
r
ult
ish
sw
ra
sle
ce
br
da
a
se
br
uji
ot
ne
ug
na
rd
nd
ub
lk
er
un
ry
n
ine
BM
y
u/F
ian
Fo
Fia
Ge
Re
Pe
dia
Vo
Ho
To
Ch
its
Hy
Ch
ss
ar
In
M
b
Ru
Su
6.50% 11.00% 10.00% 25.00% 15.00% 11.50% 26.00% 15.00% 27.50% 68.00% 72.50%
5.00% 10.50% 9.50% 42.50%
22.50% 35.00% 31.50%
13.00%
13.00% 14.50% 30.50% 36.50% 56.50%
49.00% 57.00%
78.50%
73.50% 72.50% 32.50% 44.00%
70.00% 53.50%
45.50%
38.00%
57.00%
37.50%
51.50%
40.50%
34.50%
30.50% 17.50%
29.00%
26.50% 18.00%
20.50%
17.50% 16.00%
16.00%
13.00%
7.50%
How will sales by vehicle type change in the next five years?*
* Regional best and worst performers
• Hybrids, alternative fuel and low cost vehicles lead in all regions
• Inefficient vehicles to lose most sales
les
les
les
hic
hic
hic
rs
rs
rs
ca
ca
ca
ve
ve
ve
ion
ion
ion
el
el
el
les
les
les
fu
fu
fu
ct
ct
ct
du
du
hic
hic
du
ive
ive
ive
hic
les
les
ro
ro
ro
ps
ps
ve
ve
ps
at
ps
at
at
ve
hic
hic
int
int
int
rn
rn
rn
ku
ku
ku
ku
el
el
el
lte
ve
lte
ve
lte
st
st
pic
pic
fu
fu
st
ns
pic
pic
fu
-co
-co
ra
-co
ra
ra
ry
va
ry
id
id
id
Vs
e
e
e
Vs
all
xu
he
xu
br
br
he
he
rg
rg
w
ini
br
w
rg
SU
Sm
SU
Hy
Hy
Lo
Lu
Lo
La
La
Lu
Lo
Hy
Ot
La
Ot
M
Ot
45.16% 37.10%
44.87%
38.33%
30.77%
48.39%
23.33%
24.36%
23.33%
29.03%
22.58%
16.75% 19.23% 19.23%
16.67%
12.82%
8.33%
The primary importance that companies survey responses, and battery and
ascribe to vehicle efficiency and the fuel-cell approaches are ascribed almost
further development of alternative equal priority. Regional views of other
propulsion technologies is already alternatives are clearly influenced by
apparent from earlier questions in the regional issues, particularly the extent of
current survey, as well as from the installed fuel infrastructure; accordingly,
growing emphasis on these developments ethanol is rated low priority by EMEA
in year-on-year responses despite companies, while LPG is considered
relatively low sales (see next page). considerably less important in the
Electric power ranks only just behind Americas than elsewhere.
hybrid power developments in the current
How important are these alternative fuel technologies over the next five years?*
*Percentage of companies rating
• Strong global consensus on importance of hybrids and electric technologies technologies as important
• ASPAC companies rate solar power much higher than other regions
85.90%
85.00%
82.26%
68.34%
67.95%
67.74%
64.52%
63.34%
61.54%
61.29%
46.78%
46.67%
41.66%
41.94%
40.33%
34.62%
34.61%
23.07%
20.51%
20.00%
18.34%
Fuel-cell electric Battery electric Ethanol Biodiesel LPG/LNG Hybrid fuel Solar power
power power systems
Americas Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) Asia Pacific (ASPAC)
© 2010 KPMG International. KPMGAmericas
International is a SwissASPAC
EMEA cooperative. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International.
KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties,
nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved.
* Percentage of companies rating technologies important
Product innovation and consumer change 29
How many alternative fuel vehicles (not including hybrids) will be sold in 2010?*
*2008 sales approximately 1.5 million
13.33%
25.64%
24.19%
38.71%
55.00%
39.74%
16.67%
12.82% 8.97%
1.67% 24.19% 1.61%
10.00%
10.26% 37.10%
43.33%
29.49%
17.74%
28.33%
38.46% 19.34%
KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties,
nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved.
Greater than 1 million - 1.25 million Greater 1.25 million - 1.5 million
30 KPMG Global Auto Executive Survey 2010
This large US supplier believes that “I am a little bit more optimistic than I was a Overall the industry still needs to cut
the industry has made progress year ago, but there are a lot of uncertainties. capacity. It is much easier to cut capacity
in 2009, but that more needs to in the US than it is in Europe, and that is
The US is only going to sell around 10 million one reason why the big three have all cut
be done.
cars this year. Whether the recovery we’ve capacity in the US. That is something they
seen during the second half of the year still have to do in Europe. The carmakers
is sustainable in 2010 is uncertain: will all need to continue moving European
the economy has not bottomed yet, and production to the East to cut costs, and
unemployment is still rising. Elsewhere, they will need to cut their production in
China is still growing, although that bubble Western Europe because there just won’t
may burst. India still has huge potential, be the sales for those plants.
although whether consumers have the
money to buy cars in volume we don’t yet I think the biggest winner over the last
know. And Europe I think may have a more year has been General Motors. And it has
difficult time next year than this, once the a pretty good model line-up now. As for
ending of the government incentive the others, Ford has had to borrow money
schemes hits home. But South America and that has damaged their finances.
will grow, and especially Brazil will grow. Chrysler still has to be turned around, and
it’s an open question whether Fiat can
My sense is that in the US people still do achieve that. I think European makers will
not understand how things are changing. suffer unless they can find more ways to
The automakers are very busy developing cut costs. Even Toyota has seen a fall in
smaller cars, but whether they are going US market share for the first time. Almost
to sell them to the US consumer is another everyone has suffered in some way.
matter: the mindset is not there, not yet.
For the US the question is all about demand.
We are working with a number of The potential for selling 16 or 17 million
companies on electric cars, hybrid-cars cars a year is there – the demographics
and super-economical vehicles. I think the are there. The only question is, will people
pure electric car as a mass-market product have the money to buy those cars? I don’t
is ten years away at least. For now, plug-in know the answer to that.”
hybrids have more potential. But in both
cases the economics of the vehicles are
unfavorable. For example, we are working
on a small electric vehicle, but it will still
have to cost around $40,000 – that’s an
expensive car. Even with hybrids, if you
do the math then they don’t really make
sense. People don’t buy them for economic
reasons, because as things stand you will
never get your money back in fuel savings.
It is hard to see that as a mass market
proposition.
© 2010 KPMG International. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International.
KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties,
nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved.
Product innovation and consumer change 31
When companies were asked where they to invest, reflecting the concern of many border dealer expansion will be muted,
would direct investment capital, while new Tier 2 suppliers (supported by the results especially in the Americas and in EMEA.
technology and new model development on profitability earlier in this survey) that We also note companies’ expectation of
remained top priorities, companies also they need to invest to raise profitability. significant IT and training investment in
said they would spend more on marketing the dealer industry; this reinforces results
– but less on logistics and much less on The responses on dealer investment from KPMG’s study of the global dealer
new plants. The pattern of investment represent the views of manufacturers on industry published in early 2009, which
intentions for suppliers remains the same dealer businesses (dealers themselves found that dealers themselves believe
as in last year’s survey, but for suppliers were not participants in the survey). that the industry suffers from an IT and
too the reduction in expectation of new Companies believed that ASPAC dealers training deficit.
plant building is striking. Tier 2 suppliers will have a higher propensity to invest,
are expected to show a higher propensity and believed that domestic and cross-
85.71%
55.84%
53.00%
49.00%
45.00% 44.16%
25.97%
2009 2008
© 2010 KPMG International. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International.
KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties,
nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved.
32 KPMG Global Auto Executive Survey 2010
Do you expect suppliers to increase their investment over the next two years?*
* Positive responses from suppliers only. 2008 results include
• Supplier expectations of innovation investment have grown some responses from Tier 3 suppliers
• Investment growth in new plants to fall by almost half
• Tier 2 suppliers expect to increase investments in marketing and advertising
r
r
lie
lie
lie
lie
pp
pp
pp
pp
r
r
lie
lie
lie
lie
su
su
su
su
pp
pp
pp
pp
2
su
su
su
su
r
Tie
Tie
Tie
Tie
1
2
r
r
Tie
Tie
Tie
Tie
r
lie
lie
lie
lie
pp
pp
pp
pp
su
su
su
su
95.65% 100.00%
1
2
r
r
Tie
Tie
Tie
Tie
93.00%
r
r
93.00%
lie
lie
lie
lie
89.00% 91.00% 91.00%
pp
pp
pp
pp
88.00%
su
su
su
su
82.61%
1
2
r
er
r
lie
lie
lie
r
li
Tie
Tie
Tie
Tie
pp
pp
pp
pp
su
su
su
su
1
2
r
r
Tie
Tie
Tie
Tie
70.00%
64.00% 64.00%
62.00%
59.00% 59.00%
57.00%
47.83%
44.00%
32.00%
30.43%
2009 2008
© 2010 KPMG International. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International.
KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties,
nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved.
Product innovation and consumer change 33
Do you expect dealers to increase their investment over the next two years?*
* Results from manufacturers and suppliers
• ASPAC companies see HR deficit as significant dealer issue
• All regions expect dealers to improve IT
22.58%
60.00%
EA
C
47.44%
ica
PA
EM
53.85%
er
AS
s
EA
C
ica
Am
PA
EM
er
AS
Am
77.42%
72.58%
66.67%
s
EA
C
ica
PA
EM
s
EA
er
AS
ica
PA
Am
EM
er
AS
Am
51.28%
46.77% 46.15%
43.55%
38.46% 38.33%
35.90%
31.67%
25.00%
Yes
Yes No
© 2010 KPMG International. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International.
KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties,
nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved.
34 KPMG Global Auto Executive Survey 2010
North America (ie US & Canada) Over the next five years
Western which
Europe Japan
2.50%
2.50%
1.00%
6.50%
1.00%
3.00%
10.00%
73.50%
• Existing BRIC investors will increase • India and China seen as biggest growth markets
exposure • Significant minority see Russian decline
• Reduction of investment negligible
ia
ina
il
ss
dia
az
now
Ru
Ch
Br
In
ina
1.14% 2.38%
Ch
te decline
2.00% 7.75% 29.55%
58.50% 46.48%
53.85% 25.00%
dia
In
/stable
ia
ss
Ru
53.41%
43.00% 0.50%
il
41.67%
az
Br
te improvement 2.00%
35.00%
42.25%
26.00%
mprovement 29.81%
15.48%
12.50%
This India-focused supplier, part “I am almost 100 percent more confident As we go into 2010 I can see a lot of M&A
of a group with sales of over half than I was at this time last year, and I am opportunities. Many companies outside
a billion US dollars and over 6,000 especially confident about the Indian market. of Asia are not in good shape, and we may
be able to buy them cheaply. The limiting
employees, says that automotive
The crisis certainly had a very negative factor is financing: banks have cut lending,
demand in emerging markets is effect on many of our customers. We saw and we will have to rely on internal sources
set to grow at breakneck speed. the worst effects in the commercial of capital.
vehicle market. Vehicle usage was down,
demand for new vehicles was down, and We would look for market share and for
it was very difficult for companies to technology. In commercial vehicles, for
finance new purchases. Private passenger example, we have the market share, but
car demand held up better: personal we are concerned that we don’t have
finances were more resilient than future technology. For passenger cars
company finances. we need market share.
We have cut output, but we did that by For the next five years our biggest
reducing staffing, a cut of somewhere challenges are going to be dealing with
between 20-30 percent. We have not a growing market. We have two or three
closed any facilities. And in the last main competitors in India, and we need
quarter of 2009 we stopped cutting to maintain market share as the market
manpower. It is quite likely that by the end grows. A key will be winning business
of the first quarter of 2010 all those job from the world’s main OEMs as they
cuts will be reversed. invest more in India.”
© 2010 KPMG International. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International.
KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties,
nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved.
Investing in new markets 37
In previous editions of this survey, When will China sell a significant number (1 million+ a year)
companies were asked to give specific of cars in other markets?
forecasts of domestic unit sales growth
ranges and export sales in China in five • Expectations of Chinese exports improve after falling last year
years’ time: the current survey extended 2009 2008
these questions to all of the BRIC markets.
28.90%
What do you estimate will be the annual volume of unit sales in China by 2014?*
*2008 sales approximately 9.4 million cars and commercial vehicles
42.25%
30.00%
13.38%
10.56%
10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 9.15%
1.41%
<10 million 10-12 million 12-14 million 14-16 million 16-18 million >18 million
2009 2008
© 2010 KPMG International. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International.
KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties,
nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved.
38 KPMG Global Auto Executive Survey 2010
What do you estimate will be the annual What do you estimate will be the annual
volume of unit sales in India in 2014?* volume of unit sales in Brazil in 2014?*
*2008 sales approximately 2.3 million cars and commercial vehicles *2008 sales approximately 3.2 million cars and commercial vehicles
47.73%
47.12%
36.36%
25.96%
15.38%
11.54%
9.09%
4.55%
China
Expectations for the achievement of be achieved by Brazil within the five-year 31.50%
export sales of over one million rank in horizon. However companies do not
order India, Brazil and Russia. Over 50 believe that Russia is in that league: 2.82%
percent of companies think that level will almost two thirds of companies believe
be achieved by India within five years, and Russia will not sell more than one million 29.81%
42.25%
over 45 percent of companies think it will cars outside its borders within five years.
53.85%
46.48%
ia
il
ss
dia
az
Ru
Br
In
Beyond 5 years
47.12% 54.55% 63.10%
42.86%
Within 5 years
32.14%
52.88%
45.45%
36.90%
15.47%
7.14%
For companies looking for new growth and EMEA companies on the latter.
markets, the BRICs are no longer the only However, ASPAC companies are shown
game in town. Companies in KPMG’s to be considerably more interested in
Global Auto Executive Survey say they Africa than any others, reflecting Asian
expect growth and auto investment in companies’ long-standing willingness to
many other growing economies, with the invest in economies that others may see
strongest expectations for Southeast Asia as marginal. Companies in both EMEA and
and for Eastern Europe, with ASPAC the Americas are more likely to expect
companies most focused on the former investment in the Middle East.
Not counting the BRICs which regions will attract most auto industry investment over the next five years?
6.67% 39.74%
6.41%
12.9%
1.61%
Eastern Europe including Ukraine Central and South America including Mexico Middle East including North Africa
Africa excluding North Africa Southeast Asia
Eastern Europe including Ukraine Central and South America including Mexico
© 2010 KPMG International. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International.
KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties,
nor does KPMG International have any such
Middle authority
East including toAfrica
North obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved. Africa excluding North Africa
Investing in new markets 41
It is striking that when asked which Malaysia over Thailand, and ASPAC
individual countries outside the BRICs will companies prefer Vietnam slightly over
attract auto investment in the coming five Malaysia). In the Middle East Morocco was
years there are clear winners: Ukraine is the clear leader in investment expectations,
seen as the outstanding East European albeit on a low base of companies responding.
destination (although on regional basis In South and Central America, Mexico
Americas and EMEA favor Poland); Thailand emerges – unsurprisingly given its
is the outstanding destination in Southeast significance as a manufacturing base for US
Asia (although on a regional basis both companies – as the outstanding destination.
ASPAC and EMEA companies prefer
Which emerging economies will attract most auto investment over the next five years?*
*Top five investment destinations
• Biggest existing manufacturing countries to attract most new investment
ico
ex
M
71.05%
d
an
ine
ail
ra
Th
Uk
ia
ys
ala
34.68%
M
d
na
33.00%
lan
ina
et
ia
Po
an
nt
Vi
c
ge
m
bli
Ro
Ar
pu
sia
25.81%
Re
ne
22.00% 22.58%
do
h
y
ec
ar
In
ng
Cz
18.00% 18.42%
es
Hu
ile
la
pin
ue
Ch
ilip
ez
ia
12.1%
liv
Ph
n
Ve
Bo
10.00%
8.00%
6.58%
3.23% 1.32%
2.63%
© 2010 KPMG International. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International.
KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties,
nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved.
kpmg.com
EMA
Dieter Becker
KPMG ELLP
T: +49 711 9060 41720
E: dieterbecker@kpmg.com
The information contained herein is of a general nature and is not intended to address the circumstances of any particular © 2010 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG
individual or entity. Although we endeavor to provide accurate and timely information, there can be no guarantee that such International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG
information is accurate as of the date it is received or that it will continue to be accurate in the future. No one should act upon network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG
such information without appropriate professional advice after a thorough examination of the particular situation. International. KPMG International provides no client services.
No member firm has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG
The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the interviewees and do not necessarily represent the views and International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties,
opinions of KPMG International or KPMG member firms. nor does KPMG International have any such authority to
obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved.