Weekly Technical Analysis: Top Stories of The Week

8/16/2015 ICICI direct.
com :: Market :: Technical Analysis
Weekly Technical Analysis

10 Aug 2015
- By Vivek Patil, India's foremost expert in Elliot Wave Analysis
Top Stories of the Week
Sensex trades volatile around RBI Policy, but manages to end +ve.
RBI holds rates, but says open to cuts if monsoon, economy shows recovery.
Govt looking to step up public spending.
'July manufacturing PMI at 6-month high.
Services PMI up marginally in 'July.
Govt ready to roll down Land Bill provisions.
EPFO to start investing 5% of incremental flows into equities.
Foxconn to set up production unit in Maharashtra for $5 billion.
Weak crude oil may bring Rs.88000-cr gains this year.
Parliament session heading towards a complete wash out.
Greek stock market plunges 30% as it opens for trade after a month-long gap.
S&P lower outlook of Euro Union from stable to negative.
Small-x at 61.8% price-time ratio with 1st Corrective - Watch Thursday's low & 28464
[Technical readings carried forward from previous weeks are shown in italics. Readers can easily identify the new arguments which
are written in regular font]
Last week we discussed, The fall did not stretch much beyond 2-3 days This was the 4th instance since Jun15 that Index
recovered after restricting its fall to 3 days However, each time it recovered, the magnitude of the recovery turned out to
be smaller if Index strengthens above Friday, already touching 61.8%, then the fall was non-impulsive opens up possibility
that the pattern from Jun15 may be still developing, either as Extracting Triangle or Diametric, as per the White labels
http://content.icicidirect.com/ULFiles/UploadFile_201581011947.asp 1/35
8/16/2015 ICICI direct.com :: Market :: Technical Analysis
remain +ve as long as Index makes a higher high-low Well be forced to re-examine the structure only if the Index
does move above 28464 (Nifty 8662) week could be influenced by RBI policy announcements on Tuesday
Sensex traded volatile on the day of RBI Policy. Down 400 pts from its initial highs of Monday, it recovered from Tuesdays intra-
day fall. Hitting higher highs on all days of the week, except for Friday, it finally settled 121 pts or 0.4% higher. While most
sectors ended flat to +ve, the Realty/Auto/Pharma Indexes added 2.8 to 3.6% each. The BSE Small-cap and Mid-Cap universe
outperformed by gaining over 2%.
Indeed, while the Small-Cap Index hit a fresh 7-year high, the Mid-Cap Index reached a new all-time high. Performance of
individual stocks kept the +ve sentiment going.
Sensex itself crossed above 61.8% retracement level to its preceding 3-day fall. This meant that the fall was non-impulsive,
label-3 move. This, as argued last week, meant the structure from Jun15 lows could be still developing, and not yet competed,
as we suspected last week.
This was discussed as an alternate possibility, and was shown with White labels. As per this possibility, current rally was
marked as e-leg of Extracting Triangle or Diametric pattern still developing from Jun15.
The first 3 legs, i.e. a-b-c, of this alternate scenario were found to be equal time-wise, each consumed about 10 days. Further, we
observed that the c-leg was smaller than a-leg, and d-leg was bigger than b-leg. An Extracting Triangle (ET) is a 5-legged
pattern with smaller rallies and bigger falls.
The pattern required current e-leg rally to remain smaller than c-leg, and for that, we said that current rally should end
below 28464 (8662).
We also said that faster downside retracement of the e-leg was required to confirm completion of the Extracting Triangle,
else the pattern could convert itself into a 7-legged Diametric.
Sensex is still trading below 28464 (8662), and e-leg, marked in White, is still smaller than the c-leg.
Inside post Jun15 development, the 1st rally measured 1662 pts (Nifty 482), but 2nd and 3rd measured 1127 & 1048 pts (Nifty 366 &
340), respectively, i.e. each subsequent rally was smaller than previous.
Index is now into 4th segment of rally, which, as of last weeks high, measures 944 pts (Nifty 284 pts). It will be only above 28464
level (Nifty 8662), as marked on the chart, that current rally would turn bigger.
The current rally, at last weeks high, has retraced about 81% of the preceding 3-day fall, but took 8 days, i.e. much more
time compared to the fall, to retrace that much.
The current rally, therefore, is still slower compared to the fall. The current bias is +ve, but to maintain the same, Index must
keep hitting a higher high-low, else the same could turn -ve.
If the bias does turn -ve, well watch if the -ve bias stretches beyond 2-3 days, and if it generates faster retracement of the
rally, as the next crucial events.
The slower nature of the current rally favors the corrective labels of b (Grey color) or e (White color) we applied to it. The
larger pattern, Extracting Triangle, would confirm if the rally ends below 28464 (Nifty 8662), and generates a faster
downside retracement of the rally.
Next week, accordingly, well be watching if the bias turns -ve from here to suggest a possible maturity of the rally.
As we mentioned at the beginning, Index hit higher highs during all days last week, except for Friday. Thursdays high was the 6th
consecutive higher high of the rally.
Since Jun, except for the 1st segment of rally (a-leg) which showed 9 consecutive higher highs, all the other rallies matured after
hitting 5-6 consecutive higher highs.
Since Fridays action formed a Harami, i.e. the range was enclosed inside Thursday, the high-low of Thursday would be
considered crucial for deciding bias from here, as per VPs Bias Theory.
Accordingly, well require weakness and close below Thursdays low of 28163 (Nifty 8551) to turn the bias -ve. Else, well
assume the bias to continue +ve.
If the Bulls are successful in maintaining the +ve bias, the next crucial level to watch on upside is at 28464 (Nifty 8662), as we
explained last week. Itd be only above this level that the current rally would turn bigger than previous one, and reject our
structural assumptions.
On one higher degree, the post-Jun15 structure retraced exactly 61.8% of the 1st corrective from Mar15 to Jun15. We,
remember, marked the 1st corrective as a Diametric, and post-Jun15 structure as a small x.
As per NEoWave, small-x can retrace maximum 61.8% of the 1st corrective. We have seen Index struggling to cross the 61.8%-
mark for 4 weeks now.
Time-wise, the 1st corrective from 4th Mar15 to 12th Jun15 had consumed 67 days. Against this, the small-x from 12th Jun
onwards would complete 41 days this Monday, i.e. today. This would be exactly 61.8% time ratio to the 1st corrective.
All in all, it appears that Index is now at a crucial juncture.
_________________________________________________________________________________
By conventional Technical Analysis, Index confirmed a Double Top reversal pattern near the 61.8% retracement level to the fall
from Mar to Jun. Index also achieved its minimum downside implication. The minimum implication is based on the height of the
double top pattern from 28070 to 28578, projected downside from 28070.
As per VPs trading logics, we do not rule out a reversal if the fall did not stretch much beyond 2-3 days. Indeed, this logic provided
buying opportunities on dips 4 times so far since Jun15.
However, each time it recovered, the magnitude of the recovery turned out to be smaller than the previous one. Indeed,
that led us to suspect post-Jun15 development as a Diametric pattern.
As can be seen on the Daily chart, the support came in from levels closer to the 200-day EMA and previous bottom of 10th
Jul15. While the Sensex and Nifty brok e their 10th Jul low marginally, Nifty Future recovered from a higher bottom.
Structurally, weve marked the fall from last week as a-leg of 2nd Corrective, and late recovery as its b-leg (Grey labels).
The pattern from Jun15 lows may be still developing, either as 5-legged Extracting Triangle or 7-legged Diametric, as per
the White labels shown.
The first 3 legs of this alternate scenario, i.e. a-b-c legs mark ed in white, were time-wise equal, consumed about 10 days each. The
c-leg was smaller than a-leg, and d-leg was bigger than b-leg.
Extracting Triangle, remember, is a 5-legged pattern with smaller rallies and bigger falls. The pattern requires current e-leg rally
to remain smaller than c-leg. For that, current rally should end below 28464 (8662).
Faster downside retracement of the e-leg would confirm completion of the Extracting Triangle.
However, if Index fails to retrace below the starting point of the e-leg at 27416 (Nifty 8322), i.e. below last weeks low, then the
pattern may convert into a Diametric, i.e. add f-leg (down) and g-leg (up).
We may remain +ve as long as Index makes a higher high-low and forms as a Bull candle on its Daily chart, for a continuing
e-leg of the White alternate scenario.
We, remember, turned +ve from 12th Jun low of 26307 (Nifty 7940) for 10-11 days initially. This was based on the observation
that each drop from Mar15 continued for 15-16 days, and each rally consumed 10-11 days.
The post-Jun15 rally, later, broke the falling channel from Mar15, which achieved Stage-I we set for opening larger +ve
options. It, later, also retraced the previous 15-day fall in faster time, and achieved our Stage-II confirmation for opening larger
+ve options.
As per NEoWave, structure in opposite direction usually opens up with faster retracement of the last segment of the
previous structure. We, accordingly, pointed out post-Mar15 structure may be over.
The structure from Mar15 is considered over as a 7-legged Diamond-Shaped Diametric, as shown enclosed with Grey dotted
lines on the Daily chart above. Post-Jun15 rally is tentatively considered as an x wave.
According to NEoWave, x-wave joins two standard correctives inside a Complex Corrective development. There are 3
types of x-waves depending on how much the x-wave retraces the preceding corrective.
A Small-x retraces maximum 61.8%, Common-x retraces about 100%, and Large-x measures minimum 161.8% of the
preceding corrective. There can be maximum 2 x-waves in any Complex Corrective.
Above 61.8%, Small-x label weve given to the current rally could turn into a Common-x label.
If the Index does not break its Jun15 lows of 26307 (Nifty 7940), then the situation could turn out to be similar to what
happened after Dec11, as can be seen on the chart below. After Dec11, Index brok e the larger Falling Channel, and then
corrected 80% of the rally.
Else, the situation could turn out to be similar to what happened during 2013, as we showed on the chart below :
The 2013 phase shows Index reaching its highs twice in May13 and Jul13, but still corrected time-wise for 8 months. It was a flattish
phase instead of channeled fall of 2010-11.
As we have been explaining for many week s, 17th Oct14 was the starting point of the 3rd corrective inside 19-month long Triple
Combination from Aug13 onwards. Therefore, break below Oct14 lows would confirm completion of the channeled Triple
Combination structure.
As per NEoWave, Triple Combination moves are usually well-channeled, and such moves carry 60-70% retracement as their
pattern implication, which would project about 22500 (Nifty 6750) as a downside possibility. However, these are eventual
projections.
As we had pointed out, the Falling Channel encloses 2 similar drops of 2700 pts on Sensex (850 pts on Nifty). Index broke the
channel but is now testing pull-back levels to the Green Base-Line :
Lately, we mentioned that euphoria on new Govt coming to power may be over. Break below 16th May14 low of 3325 on Dollex-30
(4149 on Defty) would technically confirm the euphoria is definitely over.
By recovering from Jun lows for more than 11 days and generating Stage-II confirmation, players are seen making all-out
efforts to avoid the -ve consequences we feared below 16th May14 low.
Structurally, we assumed a Triple Combination rally from Aug13 onwards, as was mark ed on the following chart. The Triple
Combination ended on 4th Mar15 as mark ed.
The last Corrective started from 17th Oct14 low of 25910 (Nifty 7723). As we have been saying, break below this low would
confirm that the 3rd Corrective and Triple Combination is over.
By NEoWave, complete and faster retracement of the last Corrective would finally confirm the completion of the Triple Combination
structure.
As per NEoWave, Complex Corrective involving x-waves usually get contained inside a parallel channel, as was shown on the
following chart :
Index, overall, can still be assumed falling after mak ing a Double Top during Jan-Mar as per Jan-Top Cycle of last 15 years and 2-
Year Cycle of correcting 25% every 2 years since 2004, as long as it k eeps mak ing lower top lower bottom on its Week ly chart as
was shown on the following chart :
As per 2-Year Cycle, Index shaved off 33% in 2004, 31% in 2006, 63% in 2008, 28% in 2010. In 2013, it lost only 13%, but
corrected for 8 months till Aug13. So far, the 2015 fall is 12%, but only 2 months time-wise.
Since Dec14, we feared Index could form a significant top around Jan15, because in 14 out of last 15 years, it did show tops
forming near January of each Calendar Year, as was shown on the chart below :
Technically, the question is also whether FII action leads to a decisive break of the Arithmetic Base-Line and 200-day EMA,
and most important, the Oct14 low of 25910 (Nifty 7723), which we mark ed as the starting point of the last Corrective inside Triple
Combination from Aug13.
Eventually, if the Sensex does break 17th Oct14 low of 25910 (Nifty 7723), then the 3rd Corrective as well as the Triple would
be confirmed over.
As we had mentioned recently, NEoWave lays down 60-70% retracement of a Triple as its post-pattern implication. Since the
Triple Combination started from 17449 (Nifty 5119) and ended at 30025 (Nifty 9119), i.e. 12576 (Nifty 4000) pts., a 60-70%
retracement could project about 22500 (Nifty about 6750).
We have been cautioning investors since the beginning of 2015 because Index had achieved breakout implication of 5-year
Ascending Triangle from 2008 to 2013, we showed on the following chart :
The Sensex top at 30K levels was exactly the Grid level as per VPs Grid Levels System (GLS), which we have been using
since lat 5 years :
It was also pointed out that Index looked overstretched after rallying for 12 quarters, which was a situation similar to major
top of 2008.
Based on Nifty PE Ratio, we warned that market appears to be near Bubble Territory, as was shown on the following chart :
The 22500 level is also close to previous major tops of 2008 & 2010, and is also the lowest level of Sensex Trajectory we
showed since beginning of this year. It is also value of the line joining 2003 & 2009 bottoms on Yearly chart of Sensex :
The likely Sensex trajectory for the year 2015 could be provided by the channel shown on the Yearly chart above.
As we saw previously during 1988 to 1994, and again from 2003 to 2007, Sensex bull phase trajectory is usually contained in 2
parallel lines roughly. Sensex, in the past, maintained its trajectory for 5 years or 7 years, before breaking it.
The current trajectory began from 2012, and 2015 would be 4th year in this trajectory, which could break either during 2017 or
2019, if the past is any indication.
For the year 2015, the trajectory projects 32800 on the upside and 22800 on the downside.
The current trajectory is at a lower angle (about 30 degrees), as compared to previous 2 trajectories of 1988-94 and 2003-2007.
The angle of ascent for both was identical at 60 degrees. The lower angle of current trajectory has been despite heavy FII Inflows
and political change.
Technical readings carried forward from previous weeks
On a bigger scale, we are now closely watching if 13-month long F is getting matured near the upper end of the channel
enclosing it. The channeled F from Aug13 consists of two Diametric corrective patterns joined by x. It was also pointed out
that the 2nd Corrective achieved external equality with the 1st Corrective at 25376.
Once the 2nd Corrective Diametric is confirmed over, by way of 1503+ pts fall retracing g in faster time, the Sensex may
test lower end of the channel. Protecting lower channel and 61.8% retracement level of the 2nd Corrective would force us to mark
the fall as 2nd x inside the larger F.
However, if the Sensex eventually weakens below the lower channel and 61.8% retracement level of the 2nd Corrective, it would
indicate that F completed as Double Diametric, and the larger downward G has opened.
Structurally, since Feb14, Index is yet to retrace any of its rallying segment completely in a faster time.
Since Aug13, when F began, the biggest fall was seen on the day of Election Results, about 1503 pts. A fall bigger than 1503
pts, which also retraces g in faster time, would confirm completion of Diametric in the 2nd corrective from Feb14.
The disparity between Sensex and broader mark et was shown on the comparative chart below.
The broader market outperformed Sensex from Nov13 onwards, and its out-performance was especially significant from 16th
May onwards, the day of Election Results, as can be seen on the chart.
In the meanwhile, investors may keep a tab on the risk factors. Major event lik e Election Results, Budget, are now behind us.
Hope rally has played out. FIIs selling off is a risk factor, though, So far, this has not yet played out on any meaningful scale.
Another set of risk factor would be Global, like Dow breaking its base-line on its monthly chart, etc.
On one higher degree, we considered post-Aug13 development to be F leg of a larger Diametric formation from 2008 onwards
as shown on the chart below.
This long-term scenario mark ing the larger Diametric was published on 6th Feb12. This Diametric assumption, as was argued,
compared well with the 11-year Diametric formation previously seen during 1992 to 2003.
As shown on the chart above, F is the Expanding leg of the 7-legged Diametric from 2008. In the previous instance of the
Diametric during 1992-2003 period, F leg had hit new highs during 2000.
In other words, F leg of the diametric making new highs is nothing new. After hitting new highs during 2000, G leg went
down till 2003.
We argued for a Diametric development from 2008 onwards because we observed time-similarity within its legs, which is
symptomatic of such a pattern. So far, most of the legs, except B and D, have consumed exactly about 13 months.
On the monthly Close-only chart given below, one can see Sensex crossing previous highs, indeed taking their support for
reaching further newer highs for the F leg :
We may watch if Sensex shows maturity signs at current levels and starts crack ing.
We considered this alternate scenario when Sensex moved above 2008-10 highs. It shows corrective phase from 2008 completing
as a 5-legged Ascending Triangle. This scenario can open much higher targets, 30000+ for Sensex.
The 30000+ target is nothing but 100% (+/- 25%) breakout implication of the largest leg of the Triangle.
According to NEoWave, corrective phase should consume more time than the move it is correcting. After the 56-month rally
from May2003 to Jan2008, Sensex has corrected for 67 month from Jan2008 to Aug-13, i.e. a larger period as required under
NEoWave.
We may consider the above scenario if the up-move from Aug13 onwards stretches above 25500-26000 price-wise, and
beyond Aug-Sep14 time-wise.
The following picture should throw some light on the post-election movement on the Sensex since 1980 onwards :
Since 1980, major up-moves were seen mainly after formation of a Congress-led government.
Now that a BJP-led Government is tak ing over, and has a clear mandate for development and governance, well watch if a new era is
taking over, wherein previous historical political parameters will get challenged.
By NEoWave logics, complete and faster retracement of the last upward leg, would confirm that the Diametric structure inside
the 2nd corrective is over. Look how faster retracement of the 6th rally on the chart above signaled completion of the 1st
corrective.
We, however, cannot rule out that a sufficient time-correction is required after any multi-fold rally. As shown below, such time
correction can last for as much as 161.8% to 261.8% time ratio to the multi-fold rally.
As for the last multi-fold rally during 1988 to 1992, its correction lasted for 262.8% time ratio, from 1992 to 2003.
We argued in favor of long term consolidation phase beginning 2008 because prior to 2008, Sensex had multiplied 7 times
from its 2003 lows. We argued, such multi-fold rally could results into a multi-year consolidation phase. Inside such a phase,
even moves reaching new highs are considered its internal part, and not as breakouts.
As we noted, after 11-fold rally during 1988 to 1992, Sensex consolidated for 11 years till 2003 (261.8% time ratio). Within
this consolidation, Sensex corrected as much as 30-60% every time it came closer to previous highs or even after hitting new
highs.
An ideal suckers rally usually involves making a New High. As we can be seen on the chart below, Sensex moved higher
than its 1992 highs during 1994 and 1997, but reacted by over 30% both the times.
Later during 2000, it broke 1992/1994/1997 highs, by as much as 1500-1600, only to lose 58% later. After a severe corrective
phase lasting from 2000 to 2003, Index broke 2000 high during 2004 by 100 pts, but even then shaved off 30% before the next
rally could take place.
All this happened because the 11-year long 1992-2003 phase was a multi-year corrective phase correcting the preceding 11-
fold rally from 1988 to 1992.
On the super-cycle degree, we are considering a Terminal development since 2003 onwards. The Terminal was suspected
because its 1st wave from 2003-2008 was a label-3 corrective pattern. (As against a normal label-5 Impulse pattern).
The 2003-2008 rally was internally marked as a corrective pattern called a Running Diametric.
Also, more importantly, it is only inside a Terminal that 2nd wave can be Triangle. (as against this, in a normal Impulse, 2nd wave
cannot develop as a Triangle, only 4th can).
Under the circumstances, if our assumed F leg continues beyond 13 months, i.e. beyond Jul-Aug of this year, then we could
be forced to consider the current up-move as the 3rd of the Terminal Impulse, as per the Green labels shown above.
The basic NEoWave requirement is that such a corrective phase should consume more time than the move it is correcting. The
1992-2003 corrective phase, remember, continued for a time-ratio of 261.8% to the preceding 4-year rally from 1988 to 1992.
As per Wave Theory, a corrective phase shapes up as 3-legged Flat/Zigzag, 5-legged Triangle or 7-legged Diametric (which
basically combines 2 Triangles).
The question, therefore, is whether the corrective phase ended as a 5-legged Triangle in Aug13, OR it would continue for 2
more legs and form as 7-legged Diametric.
As was shown on the chart below, all the up-down legs from Jan13 to Aug13, except b, consumed exactly 20-25 days, and
formed into a 7-legged Diametric (Diamond-Shaped variety).
As per VPs observational rules, all the legs, except b, of a 7-legged Diametric tend towards time-similarity. Indeed, by
reverse logic, when legs begin to be similar in time, the structure is more lik ely to form as a Diametric.
Similar to the pattern explained above, on one higher degree, we also observed time-similarity from 2008. All the legs,
except b, consumed about 13 months since the year 2008.
The question, now, remains if we continue with the Diametric assumption or complete the post-2008 development as a 5-legged
Triangle. As we have been explaining, we can open possibility of ending the phase as Triangle only if we see strength
continuing beyond Jul-Aug of this year.
The market is being moved mainly on a/c of FII buying heavyweights selectively, even as many stock s have been trading near
previous lows in the broader mark et.
During 8 quarters from Oct08 to Nov10, FIIs invested over Rs. 215000 crs as per SEBI data. In the current 8-quarter up-move post
Dec11, FIIs invested over Rs.242000 crs. Thus, post Dec11 up-move has so far remained smaller despite the larger investment
from FIIs.
As for DIIs, SEBI data shows divestment of Rs. 32400 crs during Oct08-Nov10, and of Rs. 43800 crs after Dec11. Thus, the up-
move of last 8 quarters remained smaller despite the higher FII investment, and larger divestment from DIIs.
Despite huge FII buying in the last five years since 2008, the Sensex was still closer to 2008 high so far, despite Net
Investment of Rs. 369901 crs till Jun13 by the FIIs.
How reliable is the FII Net Investment data coming from SEBI is another question. We generally see the inflated figure in FII
buying matching with DIIs selling figure. However, above observation is made assuming the data from SEBI is correct.
Not related to Wave Labels so much on an immediate basis, VPs 30% Principle shows that Sensex is at a risk of 25-30% cut
every 2-3 years, ever since 2004, i.e. in the last 9-10 years.
In this period, the 25-30% cut was seen from the tops in May2004, May2006, Jan2008 and Nov10 so far. The last bottom was
during Dec11. Sensex has now completed 27 months since then without a 25-30% cut.
We should keep the 30% principle in the back of the mind, and act as required when the time comes.
Appendix : Super-Cycle-degree Wave-scenarios for Sensex
For Super-Cycle-Degree wave-scenario, consider following ASA Long-Term Index. This Index has been created by combining a very
old Index compiled by a British advisor (from '1938 to '1945), with RBI Index ('1945 to '1969), F.E Index ('1969 to '1980) and Sensex
(thereafter till date).
The wave-count presented shows that the mark et is into the lower-degree 5th of the SC-degree 3rd or 5th wave.
The detailed wave-count from 1984 onwards can be seen on the Monthly chart given below. The 2-4 line shown on the ASA long-term
Chart above, and Monthly chart below, would determine if the post 1984 Impulse is a Super-cycle-degree 3rd or 5th.
Super-Cycle-Degree 3rd (or 5th) began since Nov84. Its internal 3rd was an extended leg, which achieved exactly 261.8% ratio to the
1st on log scale. The Sensex is now forming the 5th Wave, and the same could develop as a Terminal, because its lower-degree 1st
wave from May03 onwards developed as a Diametric (which is a corrective structure, rather than an impulse). Within the non-
directional legs, 2nd was exactly 61.8% of 1st value-wise, and 161.8% time-wise. The 4th was 38.2% of 3rd value-wise, and 261.8%
time-wise.
While the 4th is shown as a 3-legged a-b-c Flat on the monthly chart above. Alternatively, the 4th is shown as a 7-legged a-b-c-d-e-f-g
Bow-Tie Diametric on the Monthly chart below. The chart below also shows 11-year parallel channel from Apr'1992 to May'2003. As
shown, if one projects the width of this channel on upper side, such a projection gave 20000 as the minimum target. This forecast
was achieved.
As mentioned above, the lower-degree 1st from May2003 to Jan2008 appears to be a Bow-Tie Diametric, mark ed as a-b-c-d-e-f-g. It
is called "Diametric" because it combines two Triangular patterns, one initially Contracting up to the "d" leg, followed by an
Expanding one. The contraction point is the "d" leg, and the legs on either sides of it tend to be equal. Accordingly, "c" and "e" were
equal in "log scale", both showing about 60% gains. Similarly, "g" was equal to "a", both showing about 115% gain.
The Diametric development from 2003 to 2008 is considered to be the 1st wave of the Impuse. Due to the corrective structure in the
1st leg, the higher-degree 5th could be developing as a Terminal. Since 2008, we are into its 2nd wave, which could continue to
develop over a period of 7-8 years beginning 2008.
As per NEoWave, break of 2-4 line confirms a Terminal development, and If the 5th proves to be a Terminal, the Super-Cycle-degree
label of 3rd will have to change to 5th, because only a 5th of a 3rd cannot be a Terminal. Only a 5th of the 5th can be a Terminal. The
Super-Cycle-Degree mark ing for 1st and 2nd as shown on ASA long-term chart, would then change to 3rd and 4th respectively.
Disclaimer : These notes/comments have been prepared solely to educate those who are interested in the useful application of
Technical Analysis. While due care has been taken in preparing these notes/comments, no responsibility can be or is assumed for
any consequences resulting out of acting on them.

Weekly Technical Analysis: Top Stories of The Week

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

You might also like

Weekly Technical Analysis: Top Stories of The Week

Uploaded by

Document Information

Original Description:

Original Title

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

Weekly Technical Analysis: Top Stories of The Week

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

8/16/2015 ICICI direct.

com :: Market :: Technical Analysis

Weekly Technical Analysis

Govt looking to step up public spending.

'July manufacturing PMI at 6-month high.

Services PMI up marginally in 'July.

Govt ready to roll down Land Bill provisions.

EPFO to start investing 5% of incremental flows into equities.

Foxconn to set up production unit in Maharashtra for $5 billion.

Weak crude oil may bring Rs.88000-cr gains this year.

Parliament session heading towards a complete wash out.

S&P lower outlook of Euro Union from stable to negative.

as we suspected last week.

hitting 5-6 consecutive higher highs.

All in all, it appears that Index is now at a crucial juncture.

channel but is now testing pull-back levels to the Green Base-Line :

Technical readings carried forward from previous weeks

Appendix : Super-Cycle-degree Wave-scenarios for Sensex

You might also like