CPI, Interest Rates and Employment Rates Affecting AUD/USD

The Figure 1.0 shows three sudden increase or decrease in the price of AUD. First is
when the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% from 0.2% and this result to a
good position in the AUD. However, when the Federal Reserves (Fed) announced an interest
hike where the interest rates ranges from 1.00% to 1.25% the pirceof AUD decreases. Lastly,
according to Australian Bureau of Statistics the employment rate of he previous month has
increased to 42,000 which leads to a decrease in the unemployment rate of Australia, 5.5%.
The change in the employment rate is the cause of an increase in the price of AUD.

Due to a target range of 1.00% to 1.25%

interest rates set by the Federal Reserves last
June 15

Due to a decrease in the CPI US by 0.1% last

June 14

Due to an increase in employment rate of

Australia by 42, 000 and a decrease in the
unemployment rate by 5.5% last June 15

Figure 1. AUD/USD Hourly Market Watch

YOU CAN ONLY USE H1 TIME FRAME IF YOU ARE SHOWING THE NEWS RELEASES AT THE
GIVEN MOMENT. IS THIS DATA THE EXACT TIME THE NEWS FOR CPI CAME ABOUT?
 For our technical analysis, Figure 2 shows an uptrend in AUDUSD during the
announcement. However it is not safe to buy because the price is approaching the resistance
and from other indicators, like the Moving Average and Ichimoku shows a sell.

Figure 2. AUD/USD Daily Market Watch

Use your Fibonacci to show how strong the resisistance.

Analysis by: Alyssa Marie R. Alita

 How does current inflation level affect EUR/USD?
The EUR/USD challenged the key 1.13 resistance zone (red line)
after weak inflation figures in the US were released. Despite the recent
weakness in inflation levels, the US interest rates did increase from 1% to
1.25% later in the day which sparked a renewed US Dollar rally and hence
a decline in the EUR/USD.

The EUR/USD is currently caught in between strong support and

resistance and would need to break (arrows) these levels before a
potential trend could start.

Figure 3a. EUR/USD Daily market watch

For the past trading days, the corrective wave (blue arrow) extended
lower but could not go beyond the level 1.1162, as long as this level
protects any violation to the lower side, we expect a possible rebound
from this level to buy the impulsive wave (brown arrow) towards 1.1533.
Any break below 1.1162 may push the impulsive wave (blue arrow) further
to the lower side but should not go beyond 1.1100 from where well be
looking for low risk buy opportunities to long the impulsive wave (brown
arrow) with an ideal target at 1.1533.
 Figure 3b. EUR/USD Daily Market Watch

Trade Recommendations:

Expect a possible rebound from 1.1162 to buy this pair towards

1.1533.

Analysis by: Judy Ann Ularte

 GBP/USD expects to rally down as BOE Set to Hold Interest Rates

First, the Bank of England (BOE) monetary policy committee members vote on to set
the trade to remain at 0.25%. It is mostly anticipated that there wont be any change to the
banks monetary policy, with interest rates set to stay at a record low of 0.25% despite the
surge in the rate of inflation to the highest level since mid-2013. We could expect that with
the Central Banks maintaining the rates unchanged, GBP should witness some decline.

Figure 4a. GBP/USD Weekly Market Watch

WHERE WAS THE SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LINES FROM?

 For our technical analysis, we can expect that it will not break the resistance at
1.30156 since the BOE interest rates decision keeping the interest rates at current 0.25% will
put downward pressure to the current price. Furthermore we can expect that the
downtrend to continue and break the 1.21154 resistance.

Figure 4b. GBP/USD Weekly Market Watch

Analysis by: Edmond P. Legaspi

 Up or Down? How BOJs Announcement will affect
USD/JPY?

With the scheduled announcement of the Bank of Japan about

interest rate decision this June 16, 2017, that may change the trend of the
USD/JPY. traders are keeping an eye on how will it affect the current
USD/JPY pair on the market since the pair is still bouncing between the
support and resistance at around 108.40 and 110.20 respectively, as seen
in the Figure 5a.

Figure 5a: USD/JPY Daily market watch

 For our technical analysis, it is hard to say what move to take since
the market now is very risky to be involved in because it is expected that
the BOJ will continue its previous stand on bringing back inflation to their
target while there is the 10year note to look for US. One move can make
the market suddenly go up, but as we can see in the trend there is still
chance that it will go down so we can sell USD/JPY for short term.

Figure 5b. USD/JPY Daily market watch

Analysis by: John Melvis A. Balahadia

 USD/CAD Cross : Recovering and Strengthening

Previous week highlights BOC Governor Stephen Poloz speech in a

press conference that tackles financial system review and attracts
audiences due to his great influence over the nation. This week also
shows an outstanding performance for Canada as it increase the
employment rate by adding 54000 jobs to the labor market.

However, current week reveals a downtrend in the USD/CAD due to

variuos reasons: Gov Council Member Wilkins Speaks about diversity of
the Canadian economy, outlining some of the issues that they considered
as they prepare for their next economic update. As a result, USD/CAD had
fallen. PPI's forecasted and actual value (both 0.0%) are lower than the
previous (0.5%). This also applies in core PPI (excluding food and energy).
Also, CPI and retail Sales predicted value is lower than the previous. This
means that the investors expected that the value of USD will go lower.
Canada is under pressure since one of their major exports, crude oil, goes
down from 3.3M to -1.7M.

Days after, USD/CAD pair seems to try to go back in an upward

trend. USD acts upon the sudden downfall by opening activities such as
business and oil inventories to make US stronger, resulting to an increase
in USD/CAD. Furthermore, Canadas manufacturing sales rose by 1.1%
having petroleum and coal products as the largest gain equivalent to
8.9%. In addition to this, the predicted number of individuals who file for
unemployment insurance is lower than its actual value, making USD value
higher.
 Extraordinary
Market reaction due to
decrease in interest
Gov Council Member
rates
Wilkins speech

Trend is well-
supported. Support wont likely to be
broken.

Figure 6. USD/CAD Hourly Market Watch

Support level (<1.3250) might not have been broken as the

USD/CAD is expected to follow an upward trend by the end of the week
and can reach to 1.3300.

WHAT TO DO WITH THE CURRENCY PAIR THEN?

Analysis by: Jesica L. Billones & Johniel P. Race

 How do announcements about interest rates
affect USD/CHF?

Given the ongoing pressure in the Swiss Franc, the Swiss National
Bank (SNB) announced on June 15, 2017 that the expansionary monetary
policy will still be implemented. This is due to the mere fact that the
currency is still being overvalued and so the SNB aims to ease the
pressure by holding the interest rates at a low level. Also, their
involvement in the foreign exchange market aims to draw less attention
into Swiss Franc.

The said announcement later on showed an improvement in the

USD/CHF, as shown in figure 7. Moreover, this change may also be
attributed to the preceeding announcement on the previous day about the
Federal Reserves decision to increase interest rate from 1% to 1.25%
despite the current political issues that US is facing. With these
announcements, US dollar became higher against Swiss Franc and hit
0.9733 ; nevertheless, it is still too early to say that the continuous
implementation of holding the interest rates at -0.75% will pave the way
for the improvement in USD/CHF. Hence, investors must keep an eye on
any news that might change the course of the trend.
 Figure 7. The hourly market watch of USD/CHF.

HOW MANY PIPS FOR THE RALLY? I need more data.

For our technical analysis, Figure 8 shows us that the trend of

USD/CHF constantly changes. Under the current circumstances, that is
under the interest rates implemented this week, it is advisable to sell
USD/CHF. Nonetheless, investors may also opt to wait for further changes
in the trend since it is still too early for us to say that the announcements
made by Swiss National Bank and Federal Reserve will have a long term
positive effect. After all, there are other factors that affect the foreign
exchange market aside from interest rates.
 Figure 8. The daily market watch of USD/CHF.

Analysis by: Marinella C. Maghirang

 New Zealand Pressured by Disappointing GDP

The Federal Reserve ended their two-day meeting on June 14, 2017 with the
announcement of the raise on short-term interest rates. This decision kept the trend for the
NZDUSD from breaking its resistance at around 0.73 as the announcement will affect the
trend to slightly go down.

Moreover, the New Zealands GDP release on June 15, 2017 disappoints traders as the
quarterly GDP was 0.5% which was below the estimated 0.7% although above the previous
0.4%.

Traders may choose to make a short-term sell for the NZD/USD but it is advisable to
stay neutral and wait further.

Figure 9. NZD/USD Daily Market Watch

WHERE IS NZDUSD GOING> WHAT SUPPORT IS IT TRYING TO BREAK?

Analysis by: Rizandro Bangit Jr.