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Thayer Vietnam US Naval Ship Visit - Implications
Thayer Vietnam US Naval Ship Visit - Implications
Thayer Vietnam US Naval Ship Visit - Implications
[client name deleted]
Regarding the forthcoming visit of U.S. Navy ships to Danang:
‐The visit is presented as one of the events celebrating the 15th anniversary of the
diplomatic relations. But do you see a particular signification in this visit considering
the recent tensions in the South China Sea?
ANSWER: Definitely. The Deputy Ambassador in Washington, D.C. went out to visit
the USS George H.W. Bush, the newest aircraft carrier in port. Vietnamese officers
have just visited the USS George Washington in the South China Sea; last year they
visited the USS John D. Stennis in the South China Sea to observe take off and landing
exercises. The U.S. is demonstrating a military presence and Vietnam is letting this
occasion speak for itself. The U.S. and Vietnam will hold their first military‐to‐military
talks shortly and this is likely to see agreement on some low level practical activities.
The Vietnamese are ever sensitive to how China will react. The visit of a U.S. warship
to Da Nang indicates that Vietnam is willing to risk Chinese verbal displeasure.
‐Would you say that the tensions in the South China Sea are more accute now than
one year ago ?
ANSWER: Tensions in relations between China and the US are much more tense than
a year ago and this has spilled over to the South China Sea. Secretary Clinton’s
statement that the South China Sea is a U.S. national interest and offer to intervene
for a diplomatic settlement directly collides with Chinese assertion of national
sovereignty. China is taking this badly as it comes in the wake of U.S. exercises with
South Korea.
The tensions are in bilateral relations, there is no major risk of a military
confrontation in the South China Sea.
‐How do you see the issue evolving? Do you see the possibility of some kind of
internationalization of the issue? What role the U.S. can play? What can Vietnam
expect from them? Can Vietnam expect some support against China from the U.S. on
this issue ?
ANSWER: The South China Sea issue will become a matter between ASEAN and China
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at the November ASEAN Summit. China, which wants to discuss the South China Sea
bilaterally, will be pushed in a corner of having to discuss the issue multilaterally in
an ASEAN setting. This is preferable to being isolated on the issue or having to
discuss the issue in a multilateral setting with the U.S. present.
China must decide whether or not to attend the ASEAN Defence Ministers Plus
meeting with counterpart defence ministers. Maritime security issues will be raised.
China will face a meeting at which the United States is present along with its allies –
Japan, South Korea, Australia – and strategic partners India and New Zealand. Only
Russia is likely to side with China and that is not a forgone conclusion.
The ADMM Plus process will be followed by the ASEAN Summit with dialogue
partners and the East Asia Summit at which Secretary Clinton will be present in an
appropriate capacity. The South China Sea issue will be raised and this will add
pressure on China to open discussions with ASEAN to preempt intervention by other
external powers.