103

Q
IWA Publishing 2010 Journal
of
Water
and
Climate
Change
|
01.2
|
2010

Climate
change
and
water
resources
in
the
Lower
Mekong
River
Basin:
putting
adaptation
into
the
context

M. Keskinen, S. Chinvanno, M. Kummu, P. Nuorteva, A. Snidvongs,

O. Varis and K. Va. stila.
ABSTRACT

Adaptation to climate change has become one of the focal points of current devel
opment
discussion. This article summarises the findings from a multidisciplinary resear
ch project looking
at climate change impacts and adaptation in the Mekong River Basin in Southeast
Asia.
The research highlights the central role that the hydrological cycle has in medi
ating climate
change impacts on ecosystems and societies. The findings indicate that climate c
hange should
not be studied in isolation, as there are several other factors that are affecti
ng the hydrological
cycle. In the Mekong, the most important such factor is the on-going hydropower
development
that is likely to induce changes at least as radical as climate change, but with
shorter timescales.
The article concludes that climate change adaptation should broaden its view to
consider
environmental changes likely to occur due to different factors at various spatia
l and temporal
scales. It is also important to recognise that climate change adaptation is a dy
namic,
development-orientated process that should consider also broader socio-political
 context.
To enable this, we propose that an area-based adaptation approach should be used
more actively
to complement the dominant sector-based approaches.
Key
words
| adaptation policies, climate change adaptation, livelihoods, Mekong Delta, Ton
le Sap,
water resources management
M.
Keskinen
(corresponding author)
M.
Kummu
P.
Nuorteva
O.
Varis
K.
Va.
stila.
Water and Development Research Group,
Aalto University,
P.O. Box 15200,
00076 AALTO,
Finland
Tel.: +358 50 3824626
Fax: +358 9 47023856
E-mail: keskinen@iki.fi
S.
Chinvanno
A.
Snidvongs
Southeast Asia START Regional Center,
Chulalongkorn University,
Chulawich 1 Building,
Bangkok 10330,
Thailand

ABBREVIATIONS

3D
Three-Dimensional
CC
Climate
Change
CCCO
Cambodian
Climate
Change
Office
DIVA
Dynamic
and
Interactive
Vulnerability
Assessment;
a
method
for
modular
integrated
modelling
ECHAM
An
atmospheric
general
circulation
model
EEA
European
Environment
Agency
EIA
Environmental
Impact
Assessment
Center
of
Finland
Ltd.
IPCC
Intergovernmental
Panel
on
Climate
Change

IUCN
International
Union
for
Conservation
of
Nature
MOIT
MONRE
Ministry
of
Industry
and
Trade,
Vietnam
Ministry
of
Natural
Resources
and
Environment,
Vietnam
MRC
MRCS
NAPA
POM
Mekong
River
Commission
Mekong
River
Commission
Secretariat
National
Adaptation
Program
of
Action
to
Climate
Change
Princeton
Ocean
Model
PRECIS
Providing
REgional
Climates
for
Impacts
Studies;
a
regional
climate
modelling
SEA
START
RC
SEI
system
Southeast
Asia
START
Regional
Center
Stockholm
Environment
Institute

doi:
10.2166/wcc.2010.009
104
M. Keskinen et
al.
| Climate change and water resources in the Lower Mekong River Basin
JournalofWaterandClimateChange|01.2|2010
SIWRP
Sub-Institute
of
Water
Resources
Planning,
Vietnam
SRES
A2
One
of
the
four
IPCC
emission
scenarios
START
Global
Change
SysTem
for
Analysis,
Research
and
Training
network
TKK
Helsinki
University
of
Technology
UN
United
Nations
UNDP
United
Nations
Development
Programme
UNEP
United
Nations
Environment
Programme
VIC
Variable
Infiltration
Capacity
model
VNMC
Vietnam
National
Mekong
Committee
WUP-FIN
Lower
Mekong
Modelling
Project
WWF
World
Wide
Fund
for
Nature

INTRODUCTION

Climate
change
adaptation
and
water

Current
estimates
indicate
that
major
environmental
changes
are
likely
to
occur
due
to
climate
change
in
practically
every
part
of
the
world,
with
majority
of
these
changes
being
felt
through
modification
of
the
hydrological
cycle
as,
for
example,
floods,
droughts
and
storms
(UNDP
2006;
Falkenmark
2007;
IPCC
2007a;
Leary
et
al.
2008a;
Ludwig
&
Moench
2009;
Michel
&
Pandya
2009).
The
most
recent
World
Water
Development
Report
notes
that
climate
change
can
directly
affect
the
hydrologic
cycle
and,
through
it,
the
quantity
and
quality
of
water
resources ,
concluding
that
climate
change
is
going
to
have
a
direct
impact
on
water
availability
for
flora
and
fauna
as
well
as
for
diverse
human
uses
(World
Water
Assessment
Programme
2009:
68).

While
the
magnitude
of
the
estimated
climate
change
impacts
depends
on
the
scenarios
used,
increases
in
global
temperature
are
in
any
case
expected
to
continue
for
decades,
even
if
greenhouse
gas
emissions
were
stabilised
today
(EEA
2007;
IPCC
2007b).
Actions
have
to
be
taken
to
respond
to
these
impacts,
and
the
discussion
about
climate
change
has
therefore
shifted
from
mitigation
towards
adaptation
to
climate
change.
The
increasing
emphasis
on
adaptation
is
also
apparent
in
recent
climate
change-related
publications
and
events,
most
importantly
in
the
assessment

reports
of
the
Intergovernmental
Panel
on
Climate
Change
(IPCC
2007a)
as
well
as
in
the
15th
Conference
of
the
Parties
of
the
United
Nations
Framework
Convention
on
Climate
Change
held
in
December
2009
in
Copenhagen.

The
impacts
of
climate
change
are
estimated
to
be
particularly
severe
in
many
developing
countries,
including
the
coastal
zones
and
the
areas
prone
to
flooding
and
drought
(UNDP
2006;
IPCC
2007a;
Michel
&
Pandya
2009;
World
Water
Assessment
Programme
2009).
The
climate
change
impacts
in
these
areas
are
likely
to
bring
new
challenges
as
well
as
to
magnify
already
existing
ones,
impacting
both
the
livelihoods
and
food
security.
Yet,
the
implications
of
changing
climate
are
not
distributed
equally
and
some
groups
are
likely
to
lose and
some
groups
gain
more
than
others.
Given
the
multiple
linkages
that
climate
change
has
with
development,
climate
change
adaptation
has
thus
become
one
of
the
focal
points
of
current
development
discussion
as
well
(Le
Blanc
2009).

This
is
also
the
situation
in
the
Mekong
River
Basin
in
Southeast
Asia,
where
the
issue
of
climate
change
has
entered
both
the
national
and
regional
discussion.
There
are
naturally
good
reasons
for
this,
as
climate
change
is
estimated
to
have
a
significant
impact
on
the
region s
water
resources,
and
consequently
on
the
livelihoods
of
millions
of
people
(Chinvanno
et
al.
2008;
Eastham
et
al.
2008;
Resurreccion
et
al.
2008;
TKK
&
SEA
START
RC
2009).
Climate
change
and
responses
to
it
are
addressed
in
different
arenas,
and
the
resources
available
for
adaptation
are
increasing
rapidly.
At
the
same
time,
however,
there
is
a
danger
that
the
current
climate
change
hype
neglects
the
broader
context
in
which
the
adaptation
takes
place,
leading
to
overlaps
as
well
as
to
actions
that
are
not
really
improving
the
overall
capacity
to
respond
to
the
multiple
environmental
changes
the
region
is
facing.
The
actions
responding
to
climate
change
impacts
may
also
lead
to
growing
social
injustices,
putting
different
social
groups
in
an
increasingly
unequal
position
(Lebel
2007;
Resurreccion
et
al.
2008).

This
article
presents
the
key
findings
from
an
11-month
multidisciplinary
research
project
Water
and
Climate
Change
in
the
Lower
Mekong
Basin:
Diagnosis
&
recommendations
for
adaptation
(TKK
&
SEA
START
RC
2009).
The
research
was
carried
out
by
the
Helsinki
University
of
Technology
(now
part
of
Aalto
University),
105
M. Keskinen et
al.
| Climate change and water resources in the Lower Mekong River Basin Journal
of
Water
and
Climate
Change
|
01.2
|
2010

Finland
and
Southeast
Asia
START
Regional
Center
at
the
Chulalongkorn
University,
Thailand
in
cooperation
with
several
partners.
Due
to
its
short
duration,
the
project
was
not
able
to
cover
the
entire
Mekong
River
Basin
or
all
the
linkages
between
climate
and
water.
Instead,
the
project
focused
on
the
hydrological
impacts
of
climate
change
as
well
as
related
adaptation
strategies
in
the
Tonle
Sap
Lake
area
of
Cambodia
and
the
Mekong
Delta
of
Vietnam,
using
results
from
just
one
climate
model.
The
project
can
thus
be
seen
as
a
kind
of
scoping
study
providing
some
indicative
results
about
climate
change
adaptation
in
the
two
areas,
helping
thereby
to
recognise
the
possibilities
for
future
research
and
action.
The
research
aims
to
provide
an
overview
of
estimated
climate
change
impacts
in
these
areas
together
with
the
broader
context
within
which
the
impacts
are
taking
place.
As
the
more
detailed
descriptions
of
the
research
methodology
and
findings
are
presented
elsewhere
(TKK
&
SEA
START
RC
2008,
2009;
Nuorteva
2009;
Va.
stila.
2009;
Nuorteva
et
al.
2010;
Va.
stila.
et
al.
2010),
this
article
focuses
on
more
general
findings
as
well
as
on
their
implications
to
the
general
discussion
about
climate
change
adaptation.

The
Mekong
River
Basin

The
Mekong
River
in
Southeast
Asia
is
among
the
greatest
rivers
of
the
world:
both
its
estimated
length
(4,909
km)
and
its
mean
annual
volume
(475
km3)
make
it
the
world s
tenth
largest
(MRC
2005;
Shaochuang
et
al.
2007).
The
Mekong
is
also
among
the
world s
most
pristine
large
rivers,
supporting
an
exceptionally
diverse
and
productive
freshwater
ecosystem
that
provides
livelihood
and
food
for
millions
of
people.
Most
important
water-related
resources
in
the
basin
are
rice
and
fish
as
well
as
other
aquatic
animals
and
plants
(MRC
2003a).

Six
riparian
countries
share
the
Mekong
River
Basin:
Cambodia,
China,
Laos,
Burma/Myanmar,
Thailand
and
Vietnam.
The
Mekong
River
and
its
tributaries
have
different
environmental,
economic,
social
and
cultural
roles
in
the
six
countries.
For
the
primarily
rural
economies
of
Cambodia,
Laos
and
the
Mekong
Delta
of
Vietnam,
the
river
is
the
lifeline
of
the
local
people
as
it
supports
directly
the
livelihoods
of
millions
of
fishers
and
farmers.
The
river
and
its
floodplains
are
particularly
important
for

the
Lower
Mekong
floodplains
downstream
from
the
Cambodian
provincial
town
of
Kratie;
in
this
area
the
annual
rhythm
of
the
river
is
most
visible
as
the
flood
waters
extend
the
river
to
vast
floodplains,
supporting
highly
productive
fisheries
and
rice
cultivation.

The
Mekong
River
Basin
is
expected
to
see
an
increasing
number
of
water
infrastructure
developments
within
the
coming
decades,
particularly
in
form
of
large-
scale
hydropower
dams
in
upper
parts
of
the
basin
(IUCN
et
al.
2007;
King
et
al.
2007;
MRC
2008a;
Middleton
et
al.
2009;
Molle
et
al.
2009).
The
current
impact
assessments
indicate
that
these
planned
hydropower
dams
are
likely
to
cause
significant
impacts
in
the
Lower
Mekong
floodplains
and
in
the
Tonle
Sap
system
in
particular,
affecting
both
water
quantity
and
quality
and
consequently
the
aquatic
productivity
of
the
river-floodplain
system
(MRCS/WUP-FIN
2007;
Dugan
2008;
Keskinen
2008a;
Kummu
&
Sarkkula
2008;
Molle
et
al.
2009).
In
addition
to
hydropower
dams,
the
basin
is
seeing
rapid
changes
in
land
use
as
well
as
intensifying
plans
for
irrigation,
flood
control
structures
and
other
infrastructure
such
as
roads.
These
diverse
changes
and
plans
have
drawn
considerable
attention,
as
it
is
feared
they
will
undermine
the
livelihoods
of
millions
of
people
by
impacting
negatively
the
availability
of
water-dependent
resources,
most
importantly
fish
(see
e.g.
IUCN
et
al.
2007;
MRCS/WUP-FIN
2007;
Keskinen
2008a;
Rowcroft
2008;
Molle
et
al.
2009;
Sarkkula
et
al.
2009).

This
article
focuses
on
two
very
special
areas
in
the
Lower
Mekong
Basin:
the
Tonle
Sap
Lake
of
Cambodia
and
the
Mekong
Delta
of
Vietnam
(Figure
1).
Both
areas
are
unusual
in
terms
of
hydrology:
the
Tonle
Sap
has
its
extraordinary
flood
pulse
system
and
the
Delta
possesses
the
diverse
characteristics
of
deltas
including
floods,
saline
water
intrusion
and
strong
tides.
In
both
areas
people
have
developed
methods
for
adapting
and
making
use
of
the
exceptional
hydrological
regime.
While
in
the
Tonle
Sap
the
people
are
still
adapted
to
the
natural
water
regime
(Keskinen
2006;
MRCS/WUP-FIN
2007),
in
the
Delta
the
decades-long
adaptation
has
actually
meant
ambitious
engineering
projects
that
have
resulted
in
a
move
from
adaptation
to
the
control
of
delta s
water
regime
(Biggs
2003;
Miller
2003;
Ka.ko.
nen
2008).

The
Tonle
Sap
Lake
is
known
for
its
flood
pulse
system
with
a
remarkable
but
nevertheless
rather
regular
seasonal
variation in the lake s water volume and level. The flood
pulse is closely connected to the Mekong River: during the
rainy season part of the Mekong s floodwaters flow to the
lake, and the lake s surface area quadruples and the water
level increases from mere 1m up to 10m (MRCS/WUP-FIN
2007). An exceptional and highly productive floodplain
ecosystem has been formed, and the Tonle Sap is believed to
be among the world s most productive freshwater ecosystems.
The Tonle Sap is also exceptional for a lake of its size,
as the impacts of climate change or any other environmental
changes are felt as a combination of changes in its
own basin and that of the Mekong River. The actual impact
basin of the Tonle Sap Lake is thus not merely the lake
basin (86,000km2), but the entire Mekong River Basin
upstream from the Tonle Sap (680,000km2). This naturally
makes the assessment of potential impacts on the area a
particular challenge.
The people living in and around the Tonle Sap Lake
are well adapted to the remarkable variation of the lake s
water level, living in floating and stilt houses and making
use of the resources the flood pulse supports (Poole 2005;
Keskinen 2006). Overall, the Tonle Sap Lake and the
surrounding floodplains form a source of livelihoods and
food for well over million people living in and around the
lake. The significance of the Tonle Sap extends, however,
much further; it is estimated that up to half of Cambodia s
population benefits directly or indirectly from the lake s
resources, and the Tonle Sap s high fish production also
Ca Mau
Kratie
Prek Kdam
Can Tho
Chau Doc
SiemReap
PHNOM PENH
Stung Treng
Sihanoukville
Ho Chi Minh City
VIETNAM
102.0'0"E 104.0'0"E 106.0'0"E
14.0'0"N
12.0'0"N
10.0'0"N
100
km
Permament water
Floodplain
Countries
Tonle Sap
River
Mekong
Stung Sen
Bassac
South China Sea
Gulf of Thailand
CAMBODIA
Figure 1 | The map of the Lower Mekong floodplains, including the Tonle Sap Lake
and its floodplains as well as the Mekong Delta of Vietnam.
106 M. Keskinen et al. | Climate change and water resources in the Lower Mekong
River Basin Journal of Water and Climate Change | 01.2 | 2010
107
M. Keskinen et
al.
| Climate change and water resources in the Lower Mekong River Basin Journal
of
Water
and
Climate
Change
|
01.2
|
2010

Adaptation policiesCoordination, management and meetingsDiagnosis

Scenarios
Basin wide
climate change
Basin wide
planning
A
B
CD
A.IIA.I
DeltaLivelihoods
analysis
Tonle sap
B.I B.II
B.III
Nature Nature
People
Figure
2
| The main components of the Water & climate change in the Lower Mekong Basin proj
ect (TKK & SEA START RC 2008).
bring
benefits
to
other
Mekong
countries
(Bonheur
2001;
Bonheur
&
Lane
2002;
MRCS/WUP-FIN
2007).

The
Vietnamese
side
of
the
Mekong
Delta1
covers
an
area
of
around
39,200
km2
with
total
population
of
over
16
million
(SIWRP
&
VNMC
2003;
MRCS/WUP-FIN
2006).
The
delta
is
thus
much
more
intensely
populated
than
the
Tonle
Sap
area,
with
average
population
density
over
400
persons/km2,
compared
to
approximately
80
persons/
km2
in
the
Tonle
Sap
(Keskinen
2008b).
The
delta
is
a
low-
level
plain
not
more
than
three
meters
above
sea
level
at
any
point,
and
the
life
in
the
delta
is
greatly
affected
by
the
floods,
tides,
saline
water
intrusion
from
the
sea
and
alluvium-rich
floods
of
the
Mekong.
The
delta
is
crisscrossed
by
a
maze
of
canals
and
rivers
that
enable
delta s
remarkable
agricultural
production
and
also
serve
as
important
means
of
transportation.
The
vast
rice
fields
together
with
other
agricultural
as
well
as
aquacultural
products
make
up
the
core
of
the
region s
economy.
Rice
cultivation
is
of
major
importance
to
Vietnam,
and
as
up
to
half
of
the
national
production
and
70%
of
the
exported
rice
comes
from
the
Mekong
Delta,
the
area
is
often

1
The
definition
of
the
entire
Mekong
Delta
varies,
with
estimates
of
its
total
area
ranging
from
49,000
km2
(SIWRP
&
VNMC
2003)
up
to
65,000
km2
(MRC
2003b).
Commonly,
however,
the
delta
is
defined
to
consist
of
the
area
downstream
from
Cambodian
capital
of
Phnom
Penh
and
the
delta
can
thus
be
divided
into
two
parts:
Cambodian
and
Vietnamese.
In
this
article
we
use similarly
to
many
other
publications the
general
term
Mekong
Delta
also
to
refer
just
to
the
Vietnamese
part
of
the
delta.

described
as
the
rice
basket
of
entire
Vietnam
(Miller
2003;
MRCS/WUP-FIN
2006;
Ka.ko.
nen
2008).

METHODS

Assessing
the
impacts
and
adaptation
capacity

The
research
presented
in
this
article
builds
on
a
multidisciplinary
approach
that
makes
use
of
various
approaches
and
methods
(Figure
2).
Two
interlinked
modelling
exercises
formed
the
core
of
the
research;
one
exercise
focused
on
modelling
and
downscaling
of
selected
climate
change
scenarios
for
the
Mekong
Region,
and
the
other
on
modelling
the
impacts
of
these
changes
with
the
help
of
hydrological
and
hydrodynamic
models.
The
objective
of
the
modelling
exercises
was
to
estimate
how
climate
change
alters
the
flood
pulse
(Junk
et
al.
1989)
characteristics
in
the
Lower
Mekong
floodplains
in
the
first
half
of
the
21st
Century,
with
a
focus
on
the
Tonle
Sap
Lake
area
and
the
Mekong
Delta
of
Vietnam.
The
modelling
approach
is
briefly
explained
next,
while
a
more
thorough
description
is
provided
by
Va.
stila.
(2009)
and
Va.
stila.
et
al.
(2010).

The
models
run
for
two
periods:
the
baseline
(years
vary
depending
on
data
availability)
and
the
future
(2010 2049).
The
output
from
one
model
was
converted
into
the
input
for
another
model
with
the
so-called
delta
change
method,
where
the
changes
between
the
simulated
baseline
and
the
108
M. Keskinen et
al.
| Climate change and water resources in the Lower Mekong River Basin Journal
of
Water
and
Climate
Change
|
01.2
|
2010

simulated
future
were
imposed
on
the
observed
input
time
series.
The
climatic
changes
were
simulated
by
dynamically
downscaling
data
from
the
ECHAM4
atmospheric ocean
general
circulation
model
runs
(Roeckner
et
al.
1996)
with
the
PRECIS
regional
climate
model
(Jones
et
al.
2004)
under
the
SRES
A2
emissions
scenario
(Nakic.
enovic.
&
Swart
2000).
The
PRECIS
output
included
rainfall,
temperature,
wind
speed
and
wind
direction.

The
downscaled
temperature
and
precipitation
data
were
used
as
an
input
to
a
hydrological
model
(Variable
Infiltration
Capacity
model,
VIC).
The
VIC
model
covered
the
Upper
Mekong
Basin
and
produced
the
discharge
of
the
Mekong
(at
Kratie,
location
shown
in
Figure
1)asan
output.
The
downscaled
wind
speed
and
wind
direction
data
were
used
as
an
input
to
an
ocean
circulation
model
(Princeton
Ocean
Model,
POM),
which
simulated
the
local
sea
level
fluctuations
at
the
mouth
of
the
Mekong
Delta.
The
future
sea
level
time
series
were
produced
by
combining
the
POM
results
with
the
estimated
global
sea
level
rise
obtained
with
the
so-called
DIVA
tool
(Hinkel
2005).

A
three-dimensional
hydrodynamic
model
was
chosen
for
flood
pulse
simulation
as
it
is
more
suitable
for
simulating
complex
floodplain
flows
than
simpler
one-
dimensional
models.
The
EIA
3D
hydrodynamic
model
(Koponen
et
al.
2005;
Kummu
et
al.
2006;
MRCS/WUP-FIN
2008)
was
run
for
three
types
of
hydrological
years:
the
decade s
wettest,
driest
and
average
hydrological
years
in
the
baseline
decade
(1995 2004)
and
in
the
2010s 2040s.
Hydrological
year
was
defined
based
on
the
flood
timing,
starting
on
May
1st
and
ending
on
April
30th.
The
baseline
was
compared
with
the
following
three
scenarios:
1)
climate-change
induced
alterations
in
basin
hydrology
upstream
of
Kratie
(river
flow,
obtained
from
the
VIC
model),
2)
sea
level
rise
(obtained
from
the
POM
and
DIVA
models),
and
3)
their
cumulative
impacts.
Three
scenarios
simulated
for
three
types
of
hydrological
years
produced
altogether
nine
scenario
cases.
Simulated
flood
pulse
characteristics,
such
as
average
and
maximum
water
levels
and
the
duration
and
timing
of
the
flooding,
were
compared
between
the
baseline
and
the
scenario
cases
(TKK
&
SEA
START
RC
2009;
Va.
stila.
et
al.
2010).

The
modelling
exercises
were
complemented
with
analyses
of
national
adaptation
policies
in
Cambodia
and
Vietnam,
a
review
of
regional
adaptation
initiatives
as
well
as

a
study
on
livelihood
resilience
and
local
adaptation
strategies
in
the
Tonle
Sap
area.
In
addition,
a
one-day
stakeholder
consultation
workshop
was
carried
out
in
the
Mekong
Delta,
discussing
the
estimated
climate
change
impacts
and
possibilities
for
adaptation
in
the
area.
While
the
study
on
national
and
regional
adaptation
plans
was
based
on
review
of
existing
literature
(TKK
&
SEA
START
RC
2008,
2009),
the
livelihood
analysis
built
on
key
informant
interviews
in
six
study
villages
around
the
Tonle
Sap
Lake.
To
understand
the
differences
in
different
parts
of
the
floodplain,
the
study
villages
were
selected
so
that
they
formed
two
transects or
crosscuts across
the
floodplain,
with
three
villages
in
both
transects:
one
close
to
the
lake,
another
one
in
the
middle
of
the
floodplains,
and
the
third
one
in
the
upper
parts
of
the
floodplain
close
to
the
National
Roads
surrounding
the
lake
(Nuorteva
et
al.
2010).

The
livelihood
analysis
looked
at
climate
change
adaptation
through
the
concepts
of
vulnerability
and
resilience
(Holling
1973;
Adger
2000;
Cutter
et
al.
2008;
World
Resources
Institute
2008).
As
noted
by
Cutter
et
al.
(2008),
vulnerability
is
a
function
of
the
exposure
and
sensitivity
of
system,
while
resilience
refers
then
to
the
ability
of
a
social
system
to
respond
to
and
recover
from
disasters.
Resilience
therefore
looks
at
the
ability
of
social-
ecological
systems
to
cope
with
changing
situations,
and
climate
change
adaptation
was
thus
considered
as
one
change
factor
among
many,
rather
than
as
a
completely
new
paradigm.
At
the
end
of
the
research,
the
findings
from
all
research
components modelling,
review
of
adaptation
policies,
livelihood
analysis were
put
together,
and
overall
recommendations
synthesising
these
findings
formulated
(TKK
&
SEA
START
RC
2009).
This
article
presents
a
summary
on
these
key
conclusions.

RESULTS

Climate
change
impacts
and
adaptation
in
the
Mekong

Climate
change
scenarios:
warmer
and
wetter

The
results
from
the
climate
modelling
used
in
this
research
indicate
that
the
Mekong
Region
will
become
slightly
warmer,
but
the
duration
of
warm
periods
will
be
greater
and
cover
a
much
wider
area.
The
greatest
changes
were
109
M. Keskinen et
al.
| Climate change and water resources in the Lower Mekong River Basin Journal
of
Water
and
Climate
Change
|
01.2
|
2010

simulated
for
the
northern
areas
of
the
Mekong
River
Basin.
The
annual
rainfall
in
the
basin
was
projected
to
grow
on
average
by
some
4%
during
the
study
period.
These
estimated
changes
will,
however,
be
spread
unevenly,
with
rainfall
estimated
to
increase
in
the
upper
parts
of
the
basin
but
to
decrease
in
the
Lower
Mekong
floodplains.
The
overall
increasing
trend
results
from
increasing
rainfall
intensity,
as
the
length
of
the
rainy
season
is
estimated
to
be
more
or
less
the
same
as
at
present
(TKK
&
SEA
START
RC
2009;
Va.
stila.
et
al.
2010).

In
addition
to
the
impacts
of
the
changes
in
temperature
and
rainfall,
the
sea
level
rise
is
estimated
to
have
a
significant
impact
particularly
in
the
Mekong
Delta,
affecting
both
the
flooding
and
the
saline
water
intrusion.
While
the
sea
level
rise
has
clearly
the
most
significant
impacts
for
the
hydrological
changes
in
the
delta,
their
impact
is
negligible
in
the
Tonle
Sap
where
the
impacts
of
the
changed
basin
hydrology
(i.e.
the
changes
occurring
within
the
entire
Mekong
River
Basin)
due
to
changing
climate
dominate.
The
change
in
sea
level
is
very
consistent
throughout
the
study
period,
increasing
in
magnitude
decade
by
decade,
whereas
the
impacts
of
changed
basin
hydrology
are
more
varied
in
both
magnitude
and
direction
of
change
(TKK
&
SEA
START
RC
2009).

Hydrological
and
hydrodynamic
changes:
more
intensive
flooding

A
majority
of
the
nine
scenario
cases
used
for
assessing
the
climate
change
impacts
to
Mekong s
flow
produced
similar,
clear
changes
in
flooding
patterns.
In
the
first
half
of
the
21st
century,
the
flood
pulse
in
the
Tonle
Sap
and
Cambodian
floodplains
as
well
as
in
the
Mekong
Delta
is
likely
to
be
greater
than
in
the
baseline
decade.
Annual
average
water
level
was
projected
to
rise
in
every
scenario
case
both
in
the
Tonle
Sap
area
and
the
Mekong
Delta.
The
projected
rise
was
up
to
20
cm,
increasing
also
the
annual
cumulative
flooded
area.
Flood
duration
increased
in
all
thescenariocases
by
0 9%
i.e.
between
1
and
23days.
It
is
also
notable
that
the
models
indicated
increase
in
the
average
dry-season
water
level
of
the
Tonle
Sap
(Va.
stila.
2009;
Va.
stila.
et
al.
2010).
However,
as
the
EIA
3D
model
was
not
able
to
simulate
the
dry-season
water
level
very
reliably,
this
result
should
be
regarded
as
indicative
only.

All
the
simulated
flood
pulse
characteristics
indicate
that
the
average
and
driest
hydrological
years
are
likely
to
be
wetter
in
the
future.
The
wettest
hydrological
years
also
show
increases
in
the
average
and
dry-season
flood
pulse
characteristics,
but
undergo
decreases
in
terms
of
high
water
characteristics.
For
instance,
the
average
high
water
level
increases
by
1 25cm
in
the
average
and
driest
years,
whereas
it
decreases
by
up
to
27
cm
in
the
wettest
years
in
comparison
to
the
baseline
(Va.
stila.
et
al.
2010).
Overall,
in
both
the
Tonle
Sap
and
the
Mekong
Delta
the
estimated
climate
change
impacts
are
being
felt
through
regional

(i.e.
basin-wide)
as
well
as
local
changes.
National
adaptation
plans
&
policies:
focus
on
sectoral
approaches

Adaptation
to
climate
change
can
be
done
through
a
range
of
measures,
including
technological
(e.g.
protective
infrastructure
and
early
warning
systems),
behavioural
(e.g.
changes
in
consumption
or
food
choices),
managerial

(e.g.
changes
in
agricultural
practices)
as
well
as
policies
(e.g.
new
regulations
for
planning)
(IPCC
2007a;
Francisco
2008).
This
research
focused
on
adaptation
policies
that
can
be
seen
to
provide
the
overall
framework
for
the
different
adaptation
measures.
In
both
Cambodia
and
Vietnam,
climate
change
adaptation
policies
and
plans
are
coordinated
by
the
respective
environmental
ministries.
In
Cambodia,
the
Cambodian
Climate
Change
Office
(CCCO)
under
the
Ministry
of
Environment
is
responsible
for
climate
change
adaptation.
The
main
programme
guiding
adaptation
is
the
National
Adaptation
Program
of
Action
to
Climate
Change
(NAPA)
that
provides
a
framework
for
coordination
and
implementation
of
adaptation
initiatives
(Ministry
of
Environment
2006).
The
NAPA
takes
a
primarily
sectoral
approach
for
adaptation,
and
recognises
four
priority
sectors
for
climate
change
adaptation
in
Cambodia:
agriculture,
forestry,
human
health,
and
coastal
zone.
In
addition,
water
resources
sector
is
included
as
a
fifth,
crosscutting
priority
sector
due
to
its
close
linkages
with
the
other
priority
sectors
and
its
importance
for
Cambodia s
overall
development.
It
is
notable
that
the
NAPA
puts
little
emphasis
on
fisheries,
despite
their
remarkable
social
and
economic
importance
and
clear
vulnerability
to
environmental
and
110
M. Keskinen et
al.
| Climate change and water resources in the Lower Mekong River Basin
JournalofWaterandClimateChange|01.2|2010
climatic
changes
(Resurreccion
et
al.
2008;
TKK
&
SEA
START
RC
2009).

Vietnam
is
considered
as
one
of
the
world s
most
vulnerable
countries
to
climate
change
impacts
because
of
its
heavy
and
variable
rainfall,
long
low
lying
coastline
and
exposure
to
typhoons
and
storms
(MONRE
et
al.
2008).
Policies
to
assess
and
to
respond
to
climate
change
impacts
are
therefore
high
in
the
government s
agenda.
The
adaptation
actions
are
guided
by
the
National
Target
Program
to
Respond
to
Climate
Change
that
was
approved
in
December
2008
and
places
the
Ministry
of
Natural
Resources
and
Environment
as
the
lead
agency
for
its
implementation.
The
programme
aims
to
enhance
Vietnam s
capacity
to
respond
to
climate
change,
and
its
objective
is
to
assess
climate
change
impacts
on
sectors
and
regions
in
specific
periods
and
to
develop
feasible
action
plans
to
effectively
respond
to
climate
change
in
the
short-term
and
long-term
(The
Socialist
Republic
of
Vietnam
2008:
2).
The
assessment
of
climate
change
impacts
and
the
identification
of
adaptation
measures
are
in
the
National
Target
Program
organised
mainly
on
a
sectoral
basis,
emphasising
the
role
of
different
ministries
in
these
actions.

In
addition
to
national
plans,
there
exist
regional
initiatives
related
to
climate
change
adaptation
(see
e.g.
MRC
2008b;
TKK
&
SEA
START
RC
2008;
SEI
2009;
WWF
2009).
For
instance
the
Mekong
River
Commission
initiated
in
2008
its
own
climate
change
and
adaptation
initiative
for
the
Lower
Mekong
Basin,
highlighting
that
the
climate
change
is
fundamentally
a
basin-wide
issue.
The
initiative
aims
to
improve
the
capacity
of
the
riparian
governments
to
manage
and
adapt
to
climate
change
by
developing
scientific
data
and
analytical
tools
for
the
projection
of
future
climate
impacts
and
by
identifying
adaptation
strategies
to
these
impacts
(MRC
2008b).
Livelihoods
and
local
adaptation
strategies:
increasing
vulnerability

The
findings
from
the
field
research
looking
at
livelihood
resilience
and
adaptation
capacity
in
the
Tonle
Sap
area
indicate
that
people
are
generally
well
adapted
to
remarkable
seasonal
variation
in
the
lake s
waters.
However,
their
adaptation
capacity
towards
unusual
environmental

changes
such
as
extraordinary
high
floods
and
sudden
storms,
both
expected
to
intensify
due
to
climate
change,
is
limited.
The
reasons
for
the
low
adaptation
capacity
and
resulting
high
vulnerability
seem
to
be
related
to
the
rather
homogenous
livelihood
structures,
weak
opportunities
to
diversify
the
livelihood
sources,
institutional
and
governance
challenges
as
well
as
decreasing
availability
of
natural
resources.
The
vulnerabilities
were
relatively
similar
in
all
study
villages,
including
both
the
floating
villages
in
the
lake
and
the
agricultural
villages
further
up
in
the
floodplains
(Nuorteva
2009;
Nuorteva
et
al.
2010).
The
research
findings
also
point
out
that
the
adaptation
capacity
of
the
poorest
groups
is
particularly
low,
as
their
already
low
living
standards
and
limited
asset-base
intensifies
their
vulnerability
to
challenges
and
changes.
This
seems
to
be
the
case
also
in
other
countries
in
the
region,
including
Vietnam
(Chaudhry
&
Ruysschaert
2007;
Resurreccion
et
al.
2008).

The
findings
from
the
field
research
indicate
that
among
the
most
efficient
strategies
for
adapting
to
the
impacts
of
environmental
changes
is
to
increase
the
general
standards
of
living
and
the
prerequisites
to
maintain
a
productive
livelihood
base.
Equally
important
is
to
support
local
capacities
and
institutions
to
cope
with
both
sudden
shocks
as
well
as
with
more
long-term
stresses
and
changes.
In
addition,
both
the
Tonle
Sap
field
studies
and
the
stakeholder
consultation
in
the
Mekong
Delta
indicate
that
the
efforts
to
enhance
local
adaptation
capacity
should
build
on
existing
livelihoods
as
well
as
lessons
learnt
from
the
exceptional
events
of
the
past.
The
informants
in
the
Tonle
Sap
and
the
delta
had
several
ideas
about
the
sort
of
activities
through
which
they
could
improve
their
future
livelihoods
and
thus
to
enhance
their
resilience
and
adaptive
capacity.
Supporting
and
nurturing
these
ideas
can
thus
be
seen
as
one
of
the
keys
for
enhancing
the
overall
adaptation
capacity
as
well
(Nuorteva
et
al.
2010).

DISCUSSION
Changes
and
their
timescales

Due
to
the
multitude
of
spatial
and
temporal
scales
included
in
the
assessment
of
climate
change
impacts,
it
is
obvious
that
such
impacts
should
be
looked
at
together
with
other
111
M. Keskinen et
al.
| Climate change and water resources in the Lower Mekong River Basin Journal
of
Water
and
Climate
Change
|
01.2
|
2010

environmental
changes.
In
the
Mekong,
the
development
of
large-scale
hydropower
dams
represents
undoubtedly
the
most
important
change
factor
to
be
considered
together
with
climate
change,
indicating
a
need
to
assess
the
possible
impacts
of
these
two
drivers
simultaneously.
While
such
assessment
has
not
yet
been
done
comprehensively,
Table
1
shows
some
preliminary
estimates
by
presenting
a
simplified
summary
of
the
expected
impacts
of
these
two
changes
to
selected
hydrological
indicators
in
the
Tonle
Sap.

As
can
be
seen
from
the
table,
the
hydrological
impacts
of
climate
change
and
hydropower
development
are
estimated
to
be
largely
opposite
to
each
other.
An
exception
to
the
opposing
effects
of
changing
climate
and
hydropower
development
is
the
dry
season
water
level
that
is
estimated
to
increase
due
to
both
hydropower
development
and
climate
change.
Given
the
radical
negative
consequences
that
this
is
expected
to
have
for
the
floodplain
ecosystems
of
the
Lower
Mekong
Basin
(Kummu
&
Sarkkula
2008),
this
combined
impact
of
increased
dry
season
water
level
poses
a
serious
concern
for
the
Lower
Mekong
floodplains,
and
would
therefore
require
a
more
detailed
study.

The
impacts
of
climate
change
and
hydropower
development
are
also
likely
to
occur
at
noticeably
different
timescales,
and
they
cannot
therefore
be
considered
simply
to
counter-balance
each
other.
The
most
remarkable
changes
in
climate-related
variables
such
as
precipitation
and
sea
level
rise
are
estimated
to
occur
over
the
time
span
of
several
decades.
On
the
other
hand,
the
changes
caused
by
large-scale
hydropower
development
in
terms
of
increasing
reservoir
capacities
and
their
consequent
impacts
are
going
to
be
felt
with
much
shorter
timescale,
possibly
already
over
next
5 20
years.

The
differences
in
the
timescales
of
climate
change
and
hydropower
development
are
illustrated
in
an
simplified
form
in
Figure
3,
which
shows
the
slowly
increasing
trends
in
climatic
variables
over
the
coming
decades,
and
compares
these
to
the
swiftly
intensifying
changes
projected
for
the
storage
capacity
of
planned
hydropower
reservoirs
already
within
next
decade
or
so.
While
the
figure
does
not
show
directly
the
timescale
of
the
actual
impacts
of
climate
change
and
hydropower
development,
many
of
their
impacts
are
closely
related
to
the
variables
presented
in
the
figure
and
they
can
therefore
be
expected
to
have
similar
timescales.
As
Figure
3
illustrates
only
the
timescales
within
which
the
variables
are
expected
to
start
to
change,
most
of
the
impacts
caused
by
such
changes
will
in
the
long
run
be
simultaneous assuming
that
the
planned
hydropower
dams
will
still
be
in
operation
in
the
latter
half
of
the
century.
Yet,
it
is
important
to
consider
also
the
so-called
intermediate
period,
i.e.
the
period
within
which
the
impacts
of
hydropower
development
are
already
felt,
but
the
most
severe
climate
change
impacts
are
not
yet.

Table
1
| A summary showing simplified, estimated impacts of hydropower development and
climate change on selected hydrological indicators in the Tonle Sap area. Impact
timescale refers to the time horizon within which the impacts are expected to st
art to occurp

Hydrological
variable
Impact:
development
Impact:
climate
Certainty
of
climate
impact
"
"Average
water
level
(Feb Jul)
Very
likely
increases
Average
water
level
(Aug Jan)
#
"
Likely
increases
Annual
cumulative
flooded
area
#
"
Very
likely
increases
Maximum
water
level
#
"
Likely
increases
Maximum
flooded
area
#
"
Likely
increases
Flood
start
date
!
.
Very
likely
occurs
earlier
Flood
peak
date
!
/
.
Occurs
possibly
later
in
average
years
and
earlier
in
driest
years
Flood
end
date
.
!
Likely
occurs
later
Flood
duration
#
"
Likely
increases
IMPACT
TIMESCALE
Short medium
Medium long
(,5 30
years)
(,20 100
years)

pData on hydropower development is summarised from the modelling results of WUP-

FIN Project (MRCS/WUP-FIN 2007; Kummu & Sarkkula 2008), while data on climate ch
ange is based on
the research presented in this article, providing an average of all simulated cl
imate scenarios (TKK & SEA START RC 2009; Va. stila. 2009; Va. stila. et
al.
2010).
112
M. Keskinen et
al.
| Climate change and water resources in the Lower Mekong River Basin
JournalofWaterandClimateChange|01.2|2010
Projections for the future
4.5
Expected CC-related changes:
next 20 100 years3.0
1.5Precipitation change (%)
0
300
200
100Sea level change (mm)
0
Expected CC-related changes:
next 20 100 years
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Reservoir storage (km3)
90
60
30
0
Expected dam-related changes:
next 5 15 years
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Figure
3
|
Diagrams showing the future projections for two climate-related variables,
precipitation and sea level change (upper two diagrams), compared to the
change in planned reservoir storage in the Mekong Basin. Data for climate
change (CC) modified from IPCC (2007b) and for hydropower from King et
al.
(2007) and MRC (2008a).
CONCLUSIONS

Climate
change
adaptation
in
the
broader
context
of
environmental
and
social
change
This
article
has
presented
our
understanding
of
the
possible
implications
of
climate
change
in
the
Lower
Mekong
Basin,
concluding
that
remarkable
impacts
to
the
areas
water
resources,
and
consequently,
to
ecosystems
and
livelihoods
are
expected,
particularly
in
the
longer
term.
Due
to
the
trans-boundary
nature
of
the
Mekong
River,
such
impacts

are
to
be
felt
through
changes
at
multiple
geographical
scales,
making
their
assessment
particularly
challenging.
At
the
same
time
several
other
factors
are
likely
to
induce
changes
in
the
area,
often
with
much
shorter
timescales.

There
is
thus
a
need
for
integrated
assessment
of
different
changes
impacting
water
resources
and
environment,
instead
of
separate
assessments
focusing
merely
on
climate
change
or,
for
that
matter,
on
hydropower
development,
irrigation,
land
use
changes
and
so
forth.
To
fully
understand
the
combined
impacts
of
these
varied
changes,
a
cumulative
impact
assessment
should
be
carried
out
and
the
impacts
of
the
different
changes
considered
at
multiple
spatial
scales
(Kummu
2008).
Due
to
the
exceptionally
long
timescale
of
climate
change
impacts,
it
is
also
crucially
important
to
consider
thoroughly
the
temporal
scales
of
different
impacts.

The
adaptive
capacity
is
not,
however,
based
on
understanding
of
environmental
changes
alone,
but
also
very
much
on
people
and
related
institutions
and
policies.
Consequently,
in
addition
to
the
environmental
changes,
other
changes social,
economic,
political,
legal
and
institutional
have
a
remarkable
effect
on
the
ways
the
societies
are
able
to
cope
with
and
respond
to
changes
(Leary
et
al.
2008b).
Climate
change
adaptation
should
thus
be
seen
as
an
integral
part
of
broader
development
policy,
and
not
merely
as
an
environmental
issue as
seems
still
often
to
be
the
case
in
the
Mekong
countries.

Adaptation
to
climate
change
has
different
facets,
including
reducing
exposure
and
minimising
sensitivity
of
the
vulnerable
groups
as
well
as
increasing
their
capacity
to
cope
with
future
risks.
Reducing
exposure
is
usually
seen
to
require
profound
understanding
of
climate
change
impacts
and
a
certain
level
of
certainty
about
the
future
risks,
as
the
measures
to
reduce
exposure
relate
in
most
cases
to
costly
investments
such
as
infrastructure.
Enhancing
the
coping
capacity,
on
the
other
hand,
is
commonly
building
on
softer
approaches
such
as
strengthening
the
resilience
of
households
and
communities
to
future
risk
as
well
as
supporting
sustainable
and
equal
practices
in
the
use
of
natural
resources.

Consequently,
the
most
feasible
ways
to
build
adaptive
capacity
at
the
local
level
are
essentially
the
same
as
those
needed
for
example
in
livelihood
diversification
and,
more
generally,
in
poverty
reduction
and
sustainable
development
(see
also
Banhuri
2009;
Le
Blanc
2009).
Enhancing
climate
113
M. Keskinen et
al.
| Climate change and water resources in the Lower Mekong River Basin
JournalofWaterandClimateChange|01.2|2010
change
adaptation
should
therefore
build
on
these
initiatives,
and
support
them
to
respond
also
to
the
emerging
impacts
from
climate
change.
Our
findings
indicate
that
in
many
cases
the
most
straightforward
way
to
increase
the
adaptive
capacity
is
to
support
local
livelihoods
and
enhance
the
living
conditions
of
local
people,
and
the
poorest
in
particular.
Such
a
finding
is
supported
by
other
studies
such
as
Resurreccion
et
al.
(2008)
and
Le
Blanc
(2009).

In
addition,
there
is
plenty
to
learn
from
the
past
experiences
of
adaptation,
leading
to
the
recognition
of
successful and
failed adaptation
mechanisms
and
of
existing
knowledge
gaps.
Climate
change
adaptation
planning
may
thus
be
viewed
as
a
risk
communication
process
that
feeds
information
to
the
stakeholders
and
policymakers
to
help
them
to
revise
and
articulate
their
adaptation
strategies.
Consequently,
climate
change
forms
a
kind
of
stress
test
for
development
initiatives,
providing
initiative
to
examine
their
relevance
and
applicability
under
future
conditions.

Finally,
it
is
important
to
note
that
socio-political
contexts
evolve
continuously
and
often
very
rapidly,
particularly
when
compared
to
the
long-term
view
required
in
climate
change
adaptation.
Accordingly,
we
feel
that
generic
simple
solutions
cannot
really
be
established
for
climate
change
adaptation,
as
a
solution
that
may
seem
feasible
in
today s
circumstances
may
be
out-of-date
in
tomorrow s
setting.
Similarly,
situations
differ,
and
a
sound
solution
in
one
context
may
actually
turn
out
to
be
a
failure
in
another,
as
changing
climate
produces
varying
impacts
at
different
locations
and
the
adaptive
capacity
makes
each
area
vulnerable
to
climate
change
in
its
own
way.
Understanding
these
two
fundamental
preconditions
is
particularly
crucial
in
most
developing
countries such
as
Cambodia
and
Vietnam with
their
dynamic
political
and
social
settings.
Indeed,
one
needs
only
to
look
back
some
30
years a
relatively
short
period
in
climate
change
impact
studies to
understand
how
fundamentally
different
both
Cambodia
and
Vietnam
were
in
terms
of
their
economic,
institutional
and
political
systems.

Area-based
approach
for
climate
change
adaptation

The
national
adaptation
policies,
including
those
in
Cambodia
and
Vietnam,
build
largely
on
sectoral
approaches,
with
different
ministries
and
organisations
considering
climate
change
predominantly
from
their
specific
view

points
(see
also
Michel
&
Pandya
2009).
While
usually
providing
a
natural
starting
point
for
adaptation
actions,
we
suggest
that
such
a
sectoral
view
alone
is
inadequate
to
address
the
diverse
needs
related
to
adaptation.
This
is
the
case
particularly
in
terms
of
strengthening
the
household
resilience
as
well
as
understanding
the
different
spatial
and
institutional
scales
involved
(see
also
Acosta-Michlik
et
al.
2008;
Cutter
et
al.
2008;
Resurreccion
et
al.
2008).

The
social-ecological
system
in
any
particular
area
has
its
own
characteristics,
consisting
of
various
sectors
that
cannot
be
really
separated
from
each
other.
Understanding
these
specific
characteristics
is
a
prerequisite
for
the
adaptation
strategy
of
any
community
(Cutter
et
al.
2008).
Throughout
their
history
people
have
responded
to
changes,
first
and
foremost,
in
the
spatial
context
of
their
social
and
environmental
conditions.
However,
as
the
different
sectors
are
threatened
differently
by
climate
risks,
they
are
responding
differently
to
the
climate
change
impacts.
These
responses
are
also
likely
to
affect
the
risk
conditions
and
choices
of
adaptation
measures
of
other
sectors,
creating
unexpected
and
unintended
impacts.

To
reduce
the
overlaps
and
the
possibilities
for
unintended
impacts
between
the
sectors,
we
see
that
an
areabased
in
other
words
context-based approach
for
climate
change
adaptation
forms
one
very
plausible
way
to
complement
the
sectoral
approaches.
In
the
area-based
approach
the
assessment
of
future
climate
risks
and
related
adaptation
policies
is
based
on
a
holistic,
area-specific
framework
that
considers
first
the
specific
context
of
each
area
and
the
diverse
views
of
its
stakeholders,
and
only
then
the
potential
sectoral
and
cross-sectoral
responses
(see
also
Cutter
et
al.
2008;
SEA
START
RC
&
WWF
2008).
Although
this
approach
is
by
no
means
entirely
new
and
is,
in
some
ways,
already
included
in
many
adaptation
strategies,
we
suggest
that
the
adaptation
strategies
still
maintain
too
strong
emphasis
on
sectoral
approaches
without
proper
consideration
of
the
broader
contexts
where
the
adaptation
is
taking
place.

With
such
an
area-based
approach,
the
national
adaptation
policies
would
provide
a
general
framework
for
adaptation,
while
the
actual
adaptation
activities
are
planned
at
the
level
seen
most
appropriate
for
each
situation.
We
foresee
that
in
most
cases
this
would
be
the
local
level,
with
the
local
context
forming
a
starting
point
to
both
sectoral
and
114
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al.
| Climate change and water resources in the Lower Mekong River Basin Journal
of
Water
and
Climate
Change
|
01.2
|
2010

cross-sectoral
actions.
While
such
an
approach
will
naturally
have
to
build
on
existing
governance
structures
and
their
limitations,
we
still
believe
that
it
would
encourage
the
different
sectors
to
work
better
together
and
bring
the
context-specific
challenges
and
opportunities
more
into
the
discussion.
In
this
way
the
adaptation
planning
also
addresses
better
the
possible
trade-offs
between
the
sectors.

To
conclude,
our
findings
indicate
that
climate
change
forms
an
important
crosscutter
and
a
risk
multiplier
for
water
and
natural
resources
use
in
the
Mekong
Region.
At
the
same
time
it
is
obvious
that
climate
change
must
be
viewed
in
the
broader
context
within
which
a
variety
of
changes
are
taking
place
at
different
temporal
and
spatial
scales.
This
is
important
for
four
main
reasons.
Firstly,
the
amount
of
resources
being
put
into
climate
change
adaptation
is
likely
to
increase
astronomically
in
the
near
future
(see
e.g.
Banuri
2009;
Copenhagen
Accord
2009).
The
adaptation
activities
thus
have
a
potential
to
enhance
significantly
our
understanding
of
the
linkages
between
nature
and
society
as
well
as
our
capacity
to
respond
to
various
environmental
challenges.
Secondly,
climate
change
itself
is
expected
to
have
remarkable largely
negative impacts
for
ecosystems
and
society,
and
it
will
therefore
impact
directly
the
development
of
the
region.

Thirdly,
the
timescale
within
which
the
most
severe
impacts
of
climate
change
are
to
be
felt
is
exceptionally
long,
and
the
temporal
dimensions
of
different
changes
require
therefore
particular
attention,
including
the
overlaps
and
gaps
between
their
estimated
impacts.
Finally,
current
activities
on
climate
change
adaptation
tend
to
apply
a
rather
narrow
approach,
often
focusing
only
on
climate
change
per
se.
To
ensure
that
the
increasing
resources
for
adaptation
are
really
used
to
respond
to
the
different
environmental
changes,
the
adaptation
efforts
should
have
the
right
kind
of
focus
and
scope
from
the
very
beginning.
For
this
to
happen,
we
see
that
the
understanding
of
the
broader
environmental
and
sociopolitical
context
is
the
most
critical
factor.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The
research
presented
in
this
article
formed
a
part
of
the
research
project
Water
and
Climate
Change
in
the
Lower

Mekong
Basin .
The
project
was
funded
by
the
Ministry
for
Foreign
Affairs
of
Finland
with
additional
funding
from
the
Maa-ja
vesitekniikan
tuki
ry.
and
Academy
of
Finland
project
111672.
Thank
you
for
the
two
anonymous
reviewers
for
comments
that
considerably
improved
the
text.
In
addition,
thank
you
very
much
to
our
colleagues
and
project
counterparts
in
Cambodia,
Vietnam
and
elsewhere
for
your
cooperation
and
support.
Special
thanks
to
Dr
Tin
Ponlok,
Sour
Sethy,
Dr
Babette
Resurreccion,
Dr
Juha
Sarkkula,
Jorma
Koponen
and
Professor
Pertti
Vakkilainen.

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