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Buku 3 Executive Summary RUPTL 2015 2024E
Buku 3 Executive Summary RUPTL 2015 2024E
iii
The Power Supply Business Plan (RUPTL) by PT PLN (Persero) for the period of 2015-2024 has been
issued to fulfill the mandate of the Government Regulation No.14/2012 on Power Supply Operations
and to serve as a guidance for the development of power infrastructure to meet electricity demand
within PLN business areas in an efficient and well-planned manner, in order to prevent inefficiencies
from the beginning of the planning stage. RUPTL covers electricity demand load forecasts, generation
capacity expansion plans and the development plans related to transmission, substations and
distribution. Projected electricity demand has been prepared for each province and electricity
system, including the electricity systems in remote islands across the region. Development plans
for generating capacity, transmission and substation are also prepared in detail for their respective
projects.
Electricity demand forecasts are prepared to project the electricity needed to support economic
growth targeted by the government by taking into account the population growth.
The development of generation capacity has been planned to meet the growing demand for electricity,
the reserve margin and to the extent possible based on the principle of lowest cost. The utilization
of local energy sources is also prioritized, especially renewable energy such as geothermal and
hydropower. Several projects have been confirmed as undertaken as PLN projects or independent
power producer (IPP) projects, whilst some projects have been designated as either a PLN or IPP
projects. This is intended for PLN to decide a later stage, with the approval of the Government,
whether a project is implemented as a PLN or IPP project.
In the last six years, from 2009 up to 2014, PLNs business has continued to grow. The electricity
sale increased from 133.1 TWh in 2009 to 196.4 TWh in 2014, the number of customers increased
from 39.8 million in 2009 to 57.1 million in 2014 and the electrification ratio increased from 63.5%
in 2009 to 84.0% in 2014.
The electricity condition by September 2014 can be described as follows: the installed capacity of
power plants for both PLN and IPPs in Indonesia was 43,457 MW which consisted of 33,499 MW in
the Java-Bali, 6,166 MW in Sumatera and 3,842 in East Indonesia. The total number of renting power
plants is 3,640 MW. The generating capacity in Sumatera and East Indonesia is barely sufficient
to meet the electricity needs of the community, hence, there can be a shortfall when there is a
disruption to the power supply or a plant needs to undergo routine maintenance. For example, the
electricity system in Northern part of Sumatera operates for almost the whole year without backup
The urgent issue in supplying the electricity is to satisfy the demand for the areas that experience an
electricity shortage, to replace the utilisation of diesel fuel oil with non-diesel fuel oil and to electrify
the areas that still have gotten the electricity at all.
Several actions that have been taken in Sumatera and East Indonesia to overcome the issue for short
time solution are conducting rental of generation capacity, purchasing the electricity from small-scale
IPPs, doing partnership/co-operation with local governments, purchasing excess power, accelerating
the development of coal-fired power plants as stipulated in PR71/2006, building transmission
lines and securing continuity of primary energy supply and installing solar power plants. For the
Java-Bali system, the short-term solution include an acceleration of the procurement of 150/20 kV
transformer and 500/150 kV interbus, an addition of generating capacity in Bali, an acceleration of
the commissioning of submarine cables in Java-Bali 150 kV circuits 3 and 4 and an installation of
shunt capacitors in the Jakarta system to improve voltage levels.
Executive Summary Electricity Supply Business Plan PT PLN (Persero) 2015-2024
Coal resources of 120 billion tonnes and reserves of 28 billion tones in Indonesia are the basis for the
planning of the development of coal power plants, both coastal power plants using coal at market
prices, as well as mine-mouth power plants using low-rank coal at cost price plus margin.
For natural gas, even though Indonesia has large reserves amounting to 165 TSCF, in reality there is
insufficient gas available for power generation. In fact, the supply of gas to the existing power plants
has been and will be declining such that a deficit in gas supply is expected if there is no new gas supply.
In the year 2012, LNG supply from ex-Bontang via FSRU Jakarta has been commenced to operate
power plants in Teluk Jakarta during peak load periods. The price of gas in LNG form is relatively high
and is only economically viable if being used for generation at peak period. Experiencing such a gas
supply situation, the RUPTL only plans for 2 units of 800 MW Combined cycle gas-fired power plant
classes, with the expectation that one unit will received gas supply from the Cepu field, while the
gas supply for the other unit is to be determined. LNG for power generation will also be developed
in Arun, which will supply peaking power plants in Arun and Pangkalan Brandan and existing power
plants in Belawan. Similarly for East Indonesia, power plants operated with LNG will also be built to
serve peak load, some of the power plants are located in South Kalimantan, East Kalimantan, South
Kalimantan, North Kalimantan and Gorontalo.
A large number of plants utilizing renewable energy on large scale, such geothermal and hydro
powers, have also been planned in the RUPTL.
Interconnection System
Power system planning is optimized from an economic perspective, with the objective of achieving
a configuration of the development of plants which provide the lowest total NPV of the electricity
supply cost, while still meeting certain reliability criteria. The cheapest configuration is obtained
through an optimization process or objective function that includes capital costs, fuel costs, operation
and maintenance costs and the cost of energy not served. Simulation and optimization is done by
using a model called WASP (Wien Automatic System Planning).
The reliability criteria used in the planning process is a Loss of Load Probability (LOLP) which is less
than 0.274%. This means the probability of peak loads exceeding available generating capacity is
less than 0.274%. Calculation of generation capacity based on the LOLP produces a reserve margin,
which depends on the generation unit size, availability factor of each unit, number of units and type
of units.
In the Java-Bali system, the LOLP of < 0.274% is equivalent to a reserve margin of 25-30% of net
generation capacity. When expressed in terms of installed capacity, the reserve margin required is
For East Indonesia and West Indonesia, the reserve margin is set at about 40%, considering that a
smaller number of generating units, a larger unit size relative to peak load, a higher level of de-rating
and a higher growth rate compared to Java Bali.
As part of the optimization process, renewable energy generation capacity, particularly geothermal
and hydropower, is treated as a fixed system (permitted to enter the grid with no economic
optimization required) at the time the project is put into commercial operation.
Power generation planning for isolated small systems do not apply probabilistic methods and the
economic optimization process, but use the deterministic method. In this method, the planning was
based on a N-2 criteria, i.e. the minimum reserve must be greater than the two largest generation
units. The reserve is defined as the difference between the total generation capacity of existing
power plants and peak load.
The transmission planning is carried out using both static and dynamic reliability criteria N-1. The
static N-1 criteria requires that if there is an outage in a transmission circuit due to a disruption or
maintenance, the remaining transmission circuits must be able to distribute the overall load, so that
the continuity of electrical power supply is maintained. The dynamic N-1 criteria requires that in the
event of a three-phase short-circuit, followed by the loss of a transmission circuit, then there should
not be a loss of synchronization between that group of generators and other groups of generators.
Generally, the criteria applied in the RUPTL is that a need for additional transformer capacity is when
the loading of the transformer reaches 70%-80%.
In the period of 2015-2025, the electricity consumption in Indonesia is expected to increase from
219.1 TWh to 464.2 TWh, with an average growth of 8.7% per year, as shown in Figure-1. The number
of costumers is projected to increase from 60.3 million in 2015 to 78.4 million by 2022, an increase
of 2.2 million per annum. The additional customers will increase the electrification ratio from 87.7%
to 99.4%. Regionally, the electricity demand in Java-Bali is expected to increase from 165.4 TWh
to 324.4 TWh, growing at a rate of 7.8% per annum. The demand in East Indonesia is expected
to increase from 22.6 TWh to 57.1 TWh, an average growth rate of 11.1% per annum. Whilst, the
demand in Sumatera is expected to grow from 31.2 TWh to 82.8 TWh with an average growth rate
of 11.6% per annum.
Executive Summary Electricity Supply Business Plan PT PLN (Persero) 2015-2024
Figure-2 shows that in the Java-Bali system, the industrial customers account for the largest portion
of total consumption with an average of 41.4% of total sales. In East Indonesia and Sumatera,
the proportion of consumption by industrial customers is relatively smaller, at 12% and 14.7%
respectively. By 2024, the residential customers would dominate sales, accounting for 55% of sales
in East Indonesia and 59% in Sumatera.
450
Indonesia Java-Bali
300
400
350 250
300
200
250 Industrial Industrial
150
200 Social Social
150 Commercial 100 Commercial
100
50
50 Residenal Residenal
0 0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
90 60
80
Sumatera East Indonesia
50
70
60 40
50 Industrial
Industrial 30 Social
40 Social
Commercial
30
Commercial 20
Residenal
20
Residenal 10
10
0 0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
In order to satisfy the growing power demand, an additional generating capacity of 70.4 GW for the
whole of Indonesia is required, or an average growth rate of 7 GW per annum, as shown in Figure-3.
The RUPTL plans for PLN and IPPs to develop 21.4 GW and 35.5 GW of capacity respectively, with
the remaining 13.5 GW are currently unallocated projects, i.e. projects where either developers or
funding sources have not been established.
Unallocated
16,000
IPP
PLN
12,000 14,526
0
8,000
0 5,461
1,716
342 4,503
4,000 0 4,334
0 1,327 1,736 2,609
1,475 3,912
4,673 4,794
3,776 1,971
2,308 2,885 2,204 1,645 1,293
825 379 363 520 860
0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Figure-4 shows the additional generation capacity required, by plant type. New coal-fired power
plants will dominate the additional generation capacity to be developed, accounting for 42.1 GW, or
59.8% of the planned additional capacity. Planned Combined cycle gas-fired power plants amount to
9.1 GW of capacity, or 13.0%. For renewable energy, the largest planned additional capacity relates
Of this planned additional capacity, around 17.7 GW will be in West Indonesia and around 14.2 GW
in East Indonesia. In Sumatera, there is a 510 MW hydroelectric project Batang Toru, to be developed
by private sectors, and in East Indonesia there is also a 450 MW hydropower project Karama which
will also be developed by private sectors. For the Java-Bali system, the additional power is about 38.5
GW, or an average of 3.2 GW per annum.
20,000 19,319
16,000
12,000
9,237
8,000 7,333
6,389 6,146
5,079
4,212 4,318 4,617
4,000 3,782
-
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
CFPP HEPP GeoPP CCPP GT/GEPP Others
The energy mix for power generation in 2024 for Indonesia is projected to be 63.7% coal, 19.2%
natural gas (including LNG), 9% geothermal, 6.6% hydroelectric and 1.5% oil and other fuels as
Executive Summary Electricity Supply Business Plan PT PLN (Persero) 2015-2024
shown in Figure-5.
600,000
500,000
400,000
GWh
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Import Biomass HSD MFO LNG Gas Coal Geothermal Hydro
No FUEL TYPE 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
1 HSD ( x 10^3 kl ) 6,722 5,509 3,559 2,403 1,734 1,771 1,794 1,796 1,888 1,981
2 MFO ( x 10^3 kl ) 1,339 1,644 925 191 188 170 185 204 228 282
3 Gas (bcf) 503 525 571 531 467 389 372 367 372 382
4 LNG (bcf) 85 103 143 192 290 283 284 299 313 345
5 Coal (10^3 ton) 74 86 98 106 119 133 148 157 168 171
6 Biomass (10^3 ton) 34 46 45 45 43 43 43 43 43 43
The requirement for additional generation in the next 5 years is 35 GW, excluding projects that are
under construction which are 6.6 GW. It can be seen in Table-2.
Table-2. The Requirement for Additional Generation for the period of 2015-2019
Construction
PLN 2,308 784 339 562 200 4,193
IPP 1,471 971 286 41 55 2,824
Sub-Total 3,779 1,755 625 603 255 7,017
Committed
PLN - 454 2,090 575 2,539 5,658
IPP 3 78 563 5,048 5,737 11,429
Sub-Total 3 532 2,653 5,623 8,276 17,087
Plan
PLN - 1,610 2,251 2,640 1,675 8,175
IPP - 315 861 372 9,113 10,661
Sub-Total - 1,925 3,112 3,011 10,788 18,836
TOTAL 3,782 4,212 6,389 9,237 19,319 42,940
The additional transmission generation required for the next 5 years is 45 thousands kms while the
need for additional substations is 109 thousands MVA. In detail, the development of transmission
networks and substation are shown in Table-4 and Table-5.
The additional distribution networks needed for the next 5 years consist of additional medium
voltage networks of 82 thousands kms, distribution substation of 21 thousands MVA and 13,794 of
new customers. In detail, the development is given in Table-6.
Year Medium Voltage (kms) Distribution Substation (MVA) Additional Customers (x1000)
The successfulness of the 35 GW acceleration program for the next 5 years requires supports from
the governments which include the following aspects:
1. To facilitate and accelerate approval of SLA and PKLN.
2. To approve direct loans from international development banks for PLN with warranty from the
government.
The planned development of the transmission system for the period 2015-2024 includes the
development of the transmission system with a voltage of 500 kV and 150 kV in the Java-Bali system,
and systems with voltage of 500 kV, 275 kV, 150 kV in Sumatera as well as 275 kV, 150 kV and 70 kV in
East Indonesia. Generally, the construction of the transmission system looks to achieve compatibility
between the upstream generation capacity and the downstream portion of the power demand in an
efficient manner. In addition, it is also as an effort to overcome the bottleneck in transmission system
and to improve transmission voltage.
The development of 500 kV transmission lines in Java-Bali is generally intended to transmit power
from new and expansion plants and to maintain the N-1 reliability criteria, whether static or dynamic.
On the other hand, the development of 150 kV transmission lines is intended to maintain the N-1
reliability criterion and the associated transmission, in relation to the new 150 kV substations.
6,000
4,000
2,000
-
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
10,000
5,000
-
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
70/20 kV 150/20 kV 150/70 kV 250 kV DC
275/150 kV 500 kV DC 500/150 kV 500/275 kV
The development of 500 kV transmission line in Sumatera is intended to form the backbone of the
transmission system, bringing together the interconnections in the eastern corridor of Sumatera.
Large-scale power plants and load centers in Sumatera will be connected to this 500 kV transmission
system. This transmission system also will transmit power from regions with rich and inexpensive
primary energy sources (e.g. Sumbagsel and Riau) to regions which lack an affordable primary energy
source (e.g. Sumbagut). In addition, a 500 kV transmission line will also be developed in South
Sumatera as a feeder electricity supply from the mine mouth power plants to the converter station
for the HVDC transmission line, which will connect Sumatera and Java.
Executive Summary Electricity Supply Business Plan PT PLN (Persero) 2015-2024
The development plan for the transmission system in Indonesia by 2024 involves a projected 59,272
kms and 145,399 MVA of substation and transformer as shown in Figure-6 and Figure-7.
INVESTMENT REQUIRED
To date, many PLN projects have been financed through loans obtained from overseas (two-step
loan). However, since 2006 the role of this kind of financing has begun to decline and financing
by issuing bonds (both local and global) has been increasing. The 10,000 MW Fast Track Project 1
was fully financed by loans to PLN, backed by a guarantee from the Government. Lately, PLN has
once again tried to obtain loans from multilateral and bilateral financial institutions to fund power
projects, such as the Upper Cisokan pumped storage and the Sumatera-Java HVDC transmission line.
10
5.8
10.0 3.0
4.8 3.9
4.4 3.9
9.7 10.1
8.2 8.8
5.0 5.6 5.9
6.4 5.1 4.9
4.6
0.0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
The additional generation capacity to be developed over the period of 2015-2024 for the Java-Bali
system is 38.5 GW, or an average increase in capacity of 3.8 GW per year, including small-scale mini-
hydro power plants of 333 MW and wind power plants of 50 MW. The capacity of PLN will increase
by as many as 8.6 GW, or 22% of the total planned additional capacity. Private sector participation
represents a large proportion of the total planned additional capacity, i.e. 20.0 GW, or 52%, while
unallocated projects amount to 10 GW, or 26%. Of the types of power generation, coal-fired power
PROJECT 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Energy Sales GWh 165,350 178,256 192,454 207,123 222,764 239,471 258,319 278,620 300,755 324,352
Sales Growth % 7,6 7,8 8,0 7,6 7,6 7,5 7,9 7,9 7,9 7,8
Energy Production GWh 188,005 202,841 218,866 235,619 254,211 276,847 300,172 324,826 350,229 377,367
Load Factor % 79,3 79,4 79,5 79,6 79,7 79,8 79,9 80,0 80,1 80,2
Gross Peak Load MW 27,061 29,159 31,423 33,786 36,406 39,599 42,881 46,345 49,907 53,707
Nett Peak Load MW 25,875 27,840 29,993 32,213 34,578 37,103 39,960 43,031 46,376 49,934
CAPACITY
Nett Capacity MW 28,549 28,549 28,549 28,549 28,318 27,393 27,393 27,393 27,393 27,393
Installed Capacity MW 32,315 32,695 32,695 32,695 32,463 31,538 31,538 31,538 31,538 31,538
PLN MW 26,655 26,655 26,655 26,655 26,423 25,498 25,498 25,498 25,498 25,498
Retired/Mothballed - - - - (231) (800) - - - -
IPP MW 5,660 6,040 6,040 6,040 6,040 6,040 6,040 6,040 6,040 6,040
11
PROJECT 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
(FTP2)
Cisolok - Cisukarame
GeoPP 50
(FTP2)
Ungaran (FTP2) GeoPP 55
Wayang Windu (FTP2) GeoPP 220
Dieng (FTP2) GeoPP 55 55
Tampomas (FTP2) GeoPP 45
Baturaden (FTP2) GeoPP 110 110
Guci (FTP2) GeoPP 55
Rawa Dano (FTP2) GeoPP 110
Umbul Telomoyo (FTP2) GeoPP 55
Gn. Ciremai (FTP2) GeoPP 110
Gn. Endut (FTP2) GeoPP 40
Sub Total IPP On Going
1,024 655 47 - 3,320 2,025 1,040 205 110 -
& Committed
Planned Capacity
Addition
Jawa-1 (Load Follower) CCPP 1,600
Jawa-2 (Load Follower) CCPP 800
12
PROJECT 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
The development plan for the Java-Bali power system above indicates that the net reserve margin
varies between 25-56%, with the lowest reserve margin in 2016 (25%) and 2017 (25%), due to
delays some plants such as Sumsel 8 coal-fired power plant (2x600 MW), Central Java coal-fired
power plant (2x950 MW), Madura coal-fired power plant (2x200 MW), Java-1 coal-fired power plant
(1x1,000 MW), Java-3 coal-fired power plant (2x660 MW) as well as some geothermal power plants
amounting to 400 MW. In anticipation of lower reserve margins in 2016 to 2017, some steps have
been taken to address the issue.
The Muara Karang combined cycle gas-fired power plant (450 MW), Grati combined cycle gas-fired
power plant (450 MW), Pesanggarangas engine power plant(200 MW) and Java-1 combined cycle
gas-fired power plant (800 MW) and coal-fired IPPs such as Celukan Bawang power plant, Banten
power plant and Cilacap expansion should be operational over the period 2014-2017, to ensure that
the reserve margin is maintained and does not decline.
13
The locations of coal-fired power plants and combined cycle gas-fired power plants are subject to
changes in accordance with developments in project preparation, including the availability of gas
supply.
Keterangan :
Pembangkit
SRLYA
2~31 JAKARTA 9 MTWAR
~ 4a Rencana Pembangkit
~ ~ 6PRIOK
5DKSBIMKRNG 7 8 1032 34
~ ~
BNTEN
33
CLGON BKASI IDMYU
KMBNG CBTBR2 GITET 500 kV
BRAJA
CWANG CBATU11
12 26
TMBUN Rencana GITET 500 kV
CBTBR TJATI B
GNDUL CIBNG
DEPOK
20CIREBON SUTET 500 kV
XBOGOR 13 Rencana SUTET 500 kV
BOGOR 15 CRATA
16 ~ 21 22 25
JATENG IPP
35 GRSIK
14 ~ SGLNG MDCAN ~ 27
CSKAN PS SEMARANG
4b ~ BANDUNG BDSLN UNGAR
UJBRG NGBNG TANDES
PMLNG SBSLN
17 SBBRT 28
SURABAYA
CGRLG TASIK ~
GRATI
18 23RWALO
24 AMPEL
29
CLCAP IPP SURAKARTA PITON
19 ADPLA KDIRI
CILACAP PEDAN BANGIL
MALANG 30
~
NEW
ANTOSARI
31 ~
Executive Summary Electricity Supply Business Plan PT PLN (Persero) 2015-2024
1. Jawa-7 CFPP 2x1000 MW (2019) 12. Indramayu #4,5 CCPP 2x1000 MW (2019/24) 24. Jawa-10 CFPP 1x600 MW (2019)
2. Jawa-9 CFPP 600 MW (2018) 13. Peaker Jawa-Bali 1 GE/CCPP 400 MW (2017) 25. Jawa-13 CFPP 2x1000 MW (2024)
3. Banten CFPP 625 MW (2016) 14. Upper Cisokan PS 4x260 MW (2019) 26. Jawa-4 CFPP 2x1000 MW (2019)
4. Jawa-5 CFPP 2x1000 MW (2019) 15. Rajamandala HEPP 47 MW (2017) 27. Jawa-3 CCPP 800 MW (2018)
5. Lontar Exp #4 CFPP 315 MW (2018) 16. Jagede HEPP 2x55 MW (2019) 28. Peaker Jawa-Bali 2 GE/CCPP 500 MW (2017)
6. Peaker Muara Karang CCPP 500 MW (2017) 17. Matenggeng PS 4x225 MW (2022/23) 29. Gra CCPP 450 MW (2016/17)
7. Jawa-12 CFPP 2x1000 MW (2022/23) 18. Cilacap CFPP 614 MW (2015) 30. Celukan Bawang CFPP 380 MW (2015)
8. Jawa-2 CCPP 800 MW (2018) 19. Jawa-8 CFPP 1x1000 MW (2018) 31. Pesanggaran GEPP 200 MW (2015)
9. Muara Tawar Add-on Blok 2,3,4 CCPP 650 MW (2017) 20. Jawa-1 CFPP 1x1.000 MW (2019) 32. Jawa-11 CFPP 1x600 MW (2021)
10. Jawa-1 CCPP 2x800 MW (2018) 21. Jawa-3 CFPP 2x660 MW (2021/22) 33. Jawa-Bali 3 GE/CCPP 500 MW (2017)
11. Jawa-6 CCPP 2x1000 MW (2023) 22. Jawa Tengah CFPP 2x1000 MW (2019) 34. Jawa-Bali 4 GE/CCPP 450 MW (2016/17)
23. Adipala CFPP 660 MW (2015) 35. Tanjung Awar-Awar CFPP 1x350 MW (2016)
The development of the 500 kV transmission in Java is generally intended to evacuate power from
new and expansion power plants, to maintain both the static and dynamic N-1 security criterion,
while the development of the 150 kV transmission is intended to maintain the N-1 security criterion
and the transmission associated with the new 150 kV substation.
The plans for development of the 500 kV transmissions in Java-Bali are shown in Figure-9. Considering
the development of EHV transmission lines and HV transmission lines are often delayed due to
licensing, ROW and social issues, as well as the urgent need for additional power, there is a need for
PLN to take steps to increase transmission capacity soon. The development of EHV transmission line
using the new route would take a long time, while the reconductoring of several sections of the 500
kV and 150 kV transmissions would take a shorter time.
14
The 500 kV EHV transmission lines that will undergo reconductoring are New Suralaya - Bojonegara-
Balaraja, Old Suralaya Balaraja Gandul, SUTET Mandirancan-Bandung Selatan, SUTET Ungaran-
Mandirancan and Ungaran-Pedan.
The new 500 kV transmission development plan for EHV transmission lines includes Tanjung Jati
B Pemalang Indramayu - Cibatu, Balaraja Kembangan - Durikosambi and Durikosambi Muara
Karang Muara Tawar that will be forming looping EHV transmission lines in North Jakarta, to
strengthen and improve the reliability and flexibility of the system operation in Jakarta. A 500 kV
HVDC transmission interconnection between Sumatera - Java will also be built, to distribute power
from the mine mouth power plants in South Sumatera to the load centers in Java.
PLTU LONTAR
3 x 315 MW
#4 315 MW
TELUK JAKARTA
TNAGA
GNDUL
DPBRU
JTNGNII/
CBBUR
CBATU
SWNGAN/ CLGSI II/
CLGON DEPOK III CMGIS II JONGGOL
CISEENG
LEGEND : CMGIS ASPEK
CLGSI
500 KV S/S EXISTING CIBNG
500 KV S/S NEW BGORX
150 KV S/S EXISTING CIBNG II SCBNG
SGLNG
150 KV S/S NEW
150 KV S/S NEW HV CUSTOMER SNTUL ITP
70 KV S/S EXISTING TSMYA KDBDK
BGBRU
In order to strengthen the system supply in Jakarta, construction has been planned for a EHV
transmission line for the Duri Kosambi Muara Karang Priok Muara Tawar section (looping EHV
transmission line for north Jakarta route) as shown in Figure-10. The new EHV transmission line will
also improve the reliability and flexibility of operation of the power systems in Jakarta and Bekasi.
15
350,000
300,000
250,000
GWh
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
-
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Figure-11 shows that coal will be the main primary energy used, representing 67.6% of all production
in 2024, followed by natural gas (including LNG) 20.9%, geothermal 7.9%, hydro 2.8% and fuel oil
in very small proportions (0.8%). The proportion of fuel oil utilized in 2015 was about 3.4% but will
decrease to very low levels by 2024. This decrease can be achieved if alternative fuels are available
at levels as planned and the most possible efforts are made to reduce electricity production costs.
The contribution of natural gas will decline from 21.0% in 2015 to 12.2% in 2024 due to no certain
Executive Summary Electricity Supply Business Plan PT PLN (Persero) 2015-2024
additional gas supply expected to materialize. The contribution of LNG increases from approximately
5% up to 8.7% at 2024. Power plants run with LNG will be operated as peaked power plants and
must run power plants. The contribution of geothermal energy was only 4.9% in 2015 and will rise
to 7.9% by 2024.
Table-8 shows the gas supply based on current contracts. The supply of gas for the next 10 years is
likely to decline, especially for Priok, Muara Karang, Muara Tawar, Gresik and Grati. Tambak Lorok
and Pesanggaran (Bali) have been using fuel oil to-date and they are expected to obtain gas supplies
from new sources. Demand for gas for power generation in Java-Bali is shown in Table-9. In the
coming years, there will be additional planned gas-fired generating capacities as follows:
Pesanggarangas engine power plant 200 MW (2015),
Grati combined cycle gas-fired peaking plant 450 MW (2015/16),
Muara Karang combined cycle gas-fired peaking plant 450 MW (2016),
Java-1 combined cycle gas-fired power plant (in Gresik) 800 MW (2017), which is expected to
receive gas supply from the Cepu block; as well as
Java-2 combined cycle gas-fired power plant (in Grati) 800 MW (2018), which has yet to establish
its gas supply.
16
No Power Plant Gas Supplier 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
17
No Power Plant Gas Supplier 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Santos Oyong
6 Grati 20
(GSA-IP)
Santos Wortel
26 13 3 3
(GSA-IP)
Sampang
Mandiri
17 17 17
Perkasa (GSA-
IP)
Pasuruan
Migas (GSA- 3 3 3
IP)
Parnaraya
- Husky (GSA- - - 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40
IP)
Santos
Lapangan 25 25 25 -
peluang
Total 91 58 88 43 40 40 40 40 40 40
LNG Sengkang
7 Pesanggaran 40 40 40 30 - - - -
(Potensi)
Total - - 40 40 40 30 - - - -
Total Gas Supply in Jawa-Bali 1,056 1,123 1,235 1,092 924 799 708 708 565 547
From Table-9, it can be seen that there could be a shortage of gas supply to some power plants due
to the decline in the supply of gas for the next 10 years. In order to prevent this, there must be a
follow-up to extend existing gas contracts and to seek new sources of gas.
Power Plant Role MW 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
1 Muara Karang 1)
18
Power Plant Role MW 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
3 Muara Tawar
CCPP Block 1 Medium 640 48 61 63 65 27 27 28 26 25 25
GTPP Block 2 Peak 430 52 50 48 47 47 47 47 47 47
GTPP Block 3 Peak 679 28 28 28 26 26 26 25 29 29
GTPP Block 4 Peak 679 28 28 28 26 26 26 25 29 29
CCPP Block 5 Medium 234 28 17 21 21 21 21 21 20 28 28
Subtotal 2,662 76 186 189 190 145 146 147 144 157 158
Gas Supply 76 96 100 100 59 25 25 25 25 25
LNG Supply
Surplus-Deficit 0 -90 -89 -90 -86 -121 -122 -119 -132 -133
4 Gresik 4)
CCPP Block 1 Medium 526 67 61 73 64 54 54 54 54 54 54
CCPP Block 2 Medium 526 67 61 73 64 54 54 54 54 54 54
CCPP Block 3 Medium 526 67 61 73 64 54 54 54 54 54 54
CFPP Base 400 82 108 108 63
CCPP Jawa-3 Medium 800 75 75 75 75 75 75 75
Subtotal 2,779 282 290 327 329 236 236 237 236 236 236
Supply 281 289 327 329 164 155 145 145 104 84
Surplus-Deficit 0 0 0 0 -72 -81 -92 -91 -132 -152
5 Tambak Lorok
CCPP Block 1-2 Medium 1,034 98 166 166 166 166 139 120 120 120 120
CFPP 200
Subtotal 1,234 98 166 166 166 166 139 120 120 120 120
Supply 98 166 166 166 166 139 120 120 120 120
Surplus-Deficit 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
6 Grati 4)
CCPP Block 1 Medium 462 69 53 50 48 48 48 49 51 55 48
GTPP Block 2 Peak 302 22 24 31 28 29 28 29 31 29 30
Note:
1) Includes Muara Karang combined cycle gas-fired power plant 450 MW
2) Includes Muara Tawar Add-on Blocks 2,3,4 combined cycle gas-fired power plant 650 MW
3) Includes Java-1 combined cycle gas-fired power plant 800 MW
4) Includes Java-2 combined cycle gas-fired power plant 800 MW
19
Table-10 shows the power supply and demand balance of the Sumatera power system. The power
system in Sumatera is planned to achieve a reserve margin of 61% by 2024. Potential load in
Sumatera could be higher than it is planned. However, given high reserve margin in upcoming years,
it is possible to accommodate such potential high loads. If the reserve margin is lower than 40%, it
would be necessary to control the load. The new power plant development plan on Sumatera system
can be seen in Table-10.
Batanghari CCPP 30
Keramasan CCPP
Hululais (FTP2) GeoPP 55 55
Sungai Penuh (FTP2) GeoPP 110
Peusangan 1-2 HEPP 88
Asahan III (FTP2) HEPP 174
Masang-2 (FTP2) HEPP 55
RENT
Aceh GTPP 25 -25
Lampung Sribawono GE/GTPP 100 -100
Payo Selincah GE/GTPP 20 -20
RENT ADDITION
(Die/GT/GEPP)
Sumbagut DieselPP 180 -180
Sumbagselteng MW
IPP ON-GOING &
COMMITTED
Keban Agung CFPP 225
Sumsel - 5 CFPP 150 150
Sumsel - 7 CFPP 300
20
No. Supply and Demand Unit 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Riau Kemitraan (PLN-TNB- CFPP
1200
PTBA)
Jambi CFPP 1200
Lumut Balai (FTP2) GeoPP 55 55 110
Ulubelu #3,4 (FTP2) GeoPP 55 55
Sarulla I (FTP2) GeoPP 110 220
Muara Laboh (FTP2) GeoPP 70 150
Rantau Dadap (FTP2) GeoPP 110 110
Sorik Marapi (FTP2) GeoPP 80 160
Seulawah Agam (FTP2) GeoPP 110
Rajabasa (FTP2) GeoPP 110 110
Suoh Sekincau (FTP2) GeoPP 62 158
Sipoholon Ria-Ria (FTP2) GeoPP 20
Wai Ratai (FTP2) GeoPP 55
Sarulla II (FTP2) GeoPP 110
Simbolon Samosir (FTP2) GeoPP 110
Danau Ranau (FTP2) GeoPP 110
Bonjol (FTP2) GeoPP 60
Wampu (FTP2) HEPP 45
Semangka (FTP2) HEPP 56
Hasang (FTP2) HEPP 40
Merangin-2 HEPP 175 175
Peusangan-4 (FTP2) HEPP 83
Batang Toru (Tapsel) HEPP 500
PLANNED CAPACITY
ADDITION
Riau CCPP 90 160
Meulaboh (Nagan Raya) CFPP
21
No. Supply and Demand Unit 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Sidikalang-1 HEPP 15
Redelong HEPP 18
Air Putih HEPP 21
Simonggo-2 HEPP 90
Meureubo-2 HEPP 59
Ketahun-1 HEPP 84
Kumbih-3 HEPP 48
Masang-3 HEPP 89
Sibundong-4 HEPP 120
Tampur-1 HEPP 428
Lawe Alas HEPP 151
Jambu Aye HEPP 160
Sumatera Pump Storage-1 HEPP 500
Sumatera Pump Storage-2 HEPP 500
Truck Mounted T. Jabung GE/GTPP
100
Timur
Truck Mounted Lampung GE/GTPP 100
Truck Mounted Sumut GE/GTPP 100
Barge Mounted Sumut GE/GTPP 250
4 Total Capacity Addition MW 1,535 825 1,090 1,635 4,297 1,166 755 1,234 1,130 2,627
5 Total System Capacity MW 9,692 10,482 11,446 12,918 17,215 18,381 19,136 20,370 21,500 24,127
6 Total Nett Capacity MW 7,517 7,966 8,740 10,017 14,284 15,450 16,205 17,449 18,579 21,206
The development of transmission lines in Sumatera will form the transmission backbone 500 kV
interconnection system that unites the corridors of Sumatera in the east. The centers of large-scale
generation and load centers in Sumatera will be connected to this 500 kV transmission system. This
Executive Summary Electricity Supply Business Plan PT PLN (Persero) 2015-2024
transmission also will transfer electricity from power plants in the areas with adequate cheap primary
energy source (Sumbagsel and Riau) to areas which lack a primary energy source (Sumbagut).
The addition of 500 kV transmission is also developed in South Sumatera as a feeder supplier of
electricity from the mine mouth coal fired power plant to the HVDC transmission converter station
which will connect the islands of Sumatera and Java. Besides interconnection between Sumatera
and Java-Bali Systems, it is also planned to interconnect Sumatera system with Peninsular System
(Malaysia) through HVDC transmission converter station in Riau.
The development plan in RUPTL 2015-2024 for the transmission system will make significant change
to the network topology with the establishment of the 275 kV and 500 kV interconnection systems
in Sumatera. The development is also done to meet the growing demand in the form of additional
transformer capacity. The development intents to improve the reliability and debottlenecking which
is also planned in some systems, such as the plan to build a second circuit and reconductoring
several sections in the Sumbagsel and Sumbagut transmission systems.
22
Sumsel-1 Palembang
Tanjung Api-Api
2
ACSR 2x330 mm
2 20 kmr-COD 2013
ACSR 2x330 mm
1 kmr-COD 2014
Kenten
Talang
Kelapa G G
ACSR1x120 mm2
Ke GI 150 kV 10 kmr Borang GU
2013 Uprate to
Betung G ACCC 1x160 mm
2
Sungai
Boom Baru Juaro
ACSR 2x430 mm 2
60 kmr-COD 2014
Bukit
GU Bungaran
Siguntang
44
Sungai
Kedukan
U Jakabaring
G G
Ke GI 150 kV
Lubuk
Keramasan PLTG ACSR 2x330 mm
2 Kayu Agung
Jakabaring 1 kmr-COD 2017
Ke GI 150 kV CNG
Simpang Tiga
27. Teluk Sirih (FTP1) CFPP 2x112 MW 2014 32. Jambi (Tj.Jabung) MPP 100 MW - 2016 U
G
41
28. Muara Laboh (FTP2) GeoPP 220 MW 2018/24 33. Batang Hari ST Unit 30 MW - 2017 56
33. Payo Selincah (Rent) GEPP 20 MW 2015 57 Lampung
U
58 61 42
29. Duri GEPP 100 MW 2014 34. Sei Gelam (CNG) GEPP 100 MW 2014 59 62
29. Riau Peaker CCPP/GEPP 200 MW 2017 34. Jambi Peaker CCPP/GEPP 2017
63
30. Riau CCPP 250 MW 2017 35. Sungai Penuh (FTP2) GeoPP 110 MW 2024 6460
30. Riau/Tenayan CFPP 2x110 MW 2015 36. Merangin-2 HEPP 2x175 MW - 2021/22 65
31. Riau Kemitraan CFPP 2x600 MW 2019 37. CFPP Jambi 2x600 MW - 2019
The projected fuel mix for electricity production in Sumatera in 2024 would be 54.6% coal, 13.6%
natural gas, 14.4% hydro, 1.2% fuel oil and 15.9% geothermal as shown in Figure-13.
The dominance of coal fuel used in Sumatera Subsystem will be clearly seen particularly after 2019,
or after the coal steam power plant Riau Kemitraan (2x600 MW), and coal steam power plant Jambi
(2x600 MW) come into operation. In certain condition, coal steam power plant Sumsel 8, 9, dan
10 (3.000 MW) which are allocated to transfer power to the Java-Bali system can be used to supply
Sumatera system. With the dominance of coal power plants in Sumatera system, the production cost
of the system will be more economic. From Figure-13, it can be seen that there is a reduction in gas
consumption, particularly in 2018 to 2020. This condition occurs by the termination of gas power
plants in Sumatera and the plan to not extending the contracts.
23
100,000
80,000
GWh
60,000
40,000
20,000
-
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Plans for the supply to gas plant in Sumatera are presented in Table-11.
No Power Plant Gas Supplier 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
SUMATERA
1 Aceh Timur Medco Blok A 0 0 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
Executive Summary Electricity Supply Business Plan PT PLN (Persero) 2015-2024
Arun, PLTG/MG
2 FSRU LNG Tangguh 5 10 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28
Sumbagut 2 (Arun)
PLTG/MG Sumbagut
3 FSRU LNG Tangguh 11 11 11 11 11 11 11
1
PLTG/MG Sumbagut
4 FSRU LNG Tangguh 20 20 20 20 20 20
3, dan 4
5 PLTGU Belawan FSRU LNG Tangguh 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78
PLTG/MG Barge
6 FSRU LNG Tangguh 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25
Mounted
PLTG/MG Truck
7 FSRU LNG Tangguh 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12
Mounted
PLTG Sewa
Navigat,PLTG
8 Kambuna 13 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Belawan (TTF), PLTG
Paya Pasir (TTF)
Belawan (TTF), PEP Benggala
9 2 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0
PLTG Paya Pasir (TTF) (Potential)
10 Teluk Lembu Kalila Bentu 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25
11 Balai Pungut JOB - Pertamina
Talisman Jambi 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Merang (Duri)
JOB - Pertamina
Talisman Jambi 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22
Merang (Rengat)
JOB - Pertamina
Talisman Jambi 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Merang (Potential)
24
No Power Plant Gas Supplier 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
The current installed capacity in West Kalimantan is 296 MW (including rental capacity) whereby all
plants are using fuel oil, so the operating cost is very high. Additional generation capacities in West
Kalimantan are still in the planning stage, with the exception of Fast Track Phase 1 Parit Baru (2x50
MW) and Kura-kura (2x25 MW) coal-fired power plants are under construction and expected to be
operational by 2016.
PLN and Sarawak Electricity Company (SESCO) have signed a Power Exchange agreement (PEA)
which sets out plans for PLN to purchase electricity to supply West Kalimantan from Sarawak for 50
25
The power supply and demand balance of the West Kalimantan system (Table-12) indicates that the
reserve margin will reach approximately 40% by 2024. This situation is still acceptable considering
that coal-fired power plant projects in West Kalimantan are at a risk of delays for various reasons and
there is no take-or-pay clause at peak periods in the Sarawak interconnection.
Supply and Demand Unit 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Demand
Energy Production GWh 1,939 2,195 2,814 3,451 3,846 4,349 4,842 5,371 5,983 6,659
Load Factor % 66 68 66 67 67 66 66 66 66 66
Gross Peak Load MW 334 371 485 592 658 754 839 929 1,033 1,148
Supply MW 486 222 217 119 125 131 131 131 131 131
Installed Capacity
PLN MW 204 104 89 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
GTPP 30 30 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
DIESEL PP 74 74 59 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Interconnection to the
13 13 58 119 125 131 131 131 131 131
subsystem
Rental PP MW 169 105 70 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOBILE POWER PLANT 100
Retired & Mothballed (PLN) MW 119 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Executive Summary Electricity Supply Business Plan PT PLN (Persero) 2015-2024
CAPACITY ADDITION
PLANNED CAPACITY
ADDITION
Nanga Pinoh HEPP 98
Kalbar - 1 CFPP 200
26
Supply and Demand Unit 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
GE/
Kalbar Peaker 100
CCPP
Kalbar - 2 CFPP 200 200
Kalbar - 3 CFPP 200 200
TOTAL CAPACITY
MW 50 335 55 255 100 150 200 98 200 200
ADDITION
TOTAL SYSTEM CAPACITY MW 536 607 657 814 920 1,076 1,276 1,374 1,574 1,774
TOTAL NETT CAPACITY MW 482 546 591 732 828 969 1,149 1,237 1,417 1,597
The development plan for the transmission network in West Kalimantan up to the year 2024 amount
to 2,812 km, which include: construction of a new 150 kV transmission line associated with the
Fast Track coal-fired plants, coal-fired IPP and hydro projects. Development of the existing 150 kV
transmission line to scattered locations in West Kalimantan systems is also planned in order to meet
the reliability criteria (N-1) and to overcome bottlenecks in delivery, improve voltage and operational
flexibility. Construction of 275 kV West Kalimantan - Sarawak transmission interconnection will reap
economic benefits of the energy exchange when there is a marginal cost difference between the two
systems. The development of the interconnection is also useful as a contingency in the event that the
construction of new plants is delayed.
The projected energy mix in West Kalimantan system is shown in Figure-14. The role of each primary
energy can be explained as follows: in 2015, due to the lack of new power generation capacity
besides fuel oil, electricity production using fuel oil reached 1,586 GWh. In line with the operation
of coal-fired power plant and imports of electricity from Sarawak, the use of fuel oil as the primary
fuel in the West Kalimantan power system can be further reduced; Hydro power resources are found
in the Nanga Pinoh area, so a 98 MW Nanga Pinoh hydro power plant has been planned, to be
operational by 2022.
6,000
5,000
GWh
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
-
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Import HSD MFO LNG Gas Coal Geothermal Hydro
27
Up to the third quarter of 2014, the power generation capacity of PLN and IPP power plants,
including rental diesel engine units and excess power, in the South, Central, North and East regions of
Kalimantan (Kalseltengtimra) is 1,131 MW, with peak load at 917 MW, excluding the Teluk Balikpapan
coal fired power plant and Pulang Pisau coal fired power plant which is projected to operate in 2015.
In addition, the portion of power generation plants operating on oil fuel in Kalseltengtimra is still
high, hence the power production cost remains high.
A large number of additional power plants have been planned in Kalseltengtimra system as it is
reflected in the power balance, where the annual reserve margin range between 39% up to 57%
toward net available generation capacity. It is considered that the generation expansion planning
with relatively high reserve margin (up to 57%) is intended to provide greater certainty to the people
of South Kalimantan, Central Kalimantan, East Kalimantan and North Kalimantan that the electricity
supply in these regions will be adequate, or even exceed their need.
During the period 2015-2024, an additional of 3,409 MW of new generation capacity from both
PLN and IPP has been planned, including those already in the procurement process and under
construction. The additional new generation capacity comprises of coal fired power plants (2,459
MW), gas turbine/engine peaking plants (830 MW) and hydroelectric plants (120 MW). The power
generation development plan in Kalseltengtimra is shown in Table-13.
Projects 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Demand
Energy Production GWh 6,591 7,730 8,737 10,188 11,109 12,181 13,316 14,425 15,630 16,946
Load Factor % 67 67 67 67 67 67 68 68 68 68
Gross Peak Load MW 1,127 1,322 1,494 1,736 1,887 2,062 2,246 2,429 2,628 2,845
CAPACITY
Installed Capacity MW 1,264 1,206 763 580 580 580 580 580 540 540
Nett Capacity 1,023 952 638 537 537 537 537 537 497 497
PLN 637 661 445 415 415 415 415 415 415 415
IPP MW 50 61 61 82 82 82 82 82 82 82
EXCESS POWER MW 122 122 93
RENTAL MW 214 109 40 40 40 40 40 40
MOBILE POWER PLANT MW 200 230
Retired & Mothballed 129 151
CAPACITY ADDITION
Sampit CFPP 50
28
Projects 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
The projection of energy production for Kaseltengtimra system from year 2015 to 2024 is given by
Figure-16. The role of diesel fuel oil in 2015 is still high, which is 1,696 (26%). Starting from 2018, the
utilisation of fuel oil will be decreased by the substitution of natural gas and coal. It is planned that
Gas Fired/Gas Engine/Steam Gas peaker power plants using LNG and coal fired power plants will be
developed. The role of coal fired power plant will be 4,158 GWh (63%) in 2015 and will reach the
number of 13,322 GWh (79%) in 2024. Energy production from hydro will also increase from 106
GWh in 2015 to 470 GWh in 2024.
29
18,000
16,000
Executive Summary Electricity Supply Business Plan PT PLN (Persero) 2015-2024
14,000
12,000
10,000
GWh
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
-
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
30
The Northern part of Sulawesi system (Sulbagut system) is projected to be completed in 2017 after
150 kV transmission lines that interconnect Marisa Moutong Tolitoli Buol are in place. The
plan for additional power plants in Sulbagut system is quite high as it is reflected by annual reserve
margin that ranges between 33% up to 64%, except in 2015-2017, the reserve margins are below
20%. This issue leads to the need for particular effort which is extending generation renting period
and developing mobile power plants. The plan for obtaining a high reserve margin has an intention
to anticipate the uncertainty of the completion of some generation projects, particularly the projects
of Kotamobagu I and II Geothermal power plants. The power generation plan for North Sulawesi is
shown in Table-14.
The new power generation capacity planned during the period 2015-2024 is 1,226 MW which consists
of coal fired power plants (714 MW), geothermal power plant (120 MW), gas fired turbine/engine
peaking power plants with gas storage (350 MW) and hydro-electric plants (42 MW).
PROJECTS 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Sulut-Gorontalo-Tolitoli Interconnection (2017)
Energy Production GWh 2,098 2,321 2,780 3,110 3,443 3,811 4,338 4,775 5,263 5,804
CAPACITY
Installed Capacity MW 457 522 278 278 212 212 212 212 212 212
Nett Capacity 410 475 230 230 201 201 201 201 201 201
PLN MW 245 245 205 205 176 176 176 176 176 176
IPP MW 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25
RENTAL MW 140 205 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Mobile Power Plant 100 100
Retired & Mothballed 0 0 105 0 0 0 0 0
CAPACITY ADDITION
RENTAL
Rental CFPP Amurang
CFPP 50
(2x25)
31
PROJECTS 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
IPP ON GOING &
COMMITTED
Gorontalo (Terkendala) CFPP 14
PLANNED CAPACITY
ADDITION
Sulut 1 CFPP 50
Tolitoli CFPP 25 25
Sulut 3 CFPP 50 50
Sulbagut 1 CFPP 50 50
Sulbagut 2 CFPP 0 100 100
Sulbagut 3 CFPP 50 50
Poigar 2 HEPP 30
Sawangan HEPP 12
GT/GE/
Minahasa Peaker 0 150
CCPP
GT/GE/
Gorontalo Peaker 100
CCPP
GT/GE/
Sulbagut Peaker 100
CCPP
Kotamobagu (FTP2) GeoPP 80
Lahendong 5 (FTP2) GeoPP 0 20
Lahendong 6 (FTP2) GeoPP 0 20
TOTAL CAPACITY
MW 0 25 359 170 150 187 55 100 100 180
ADDITION
TOTAL SYSTEM
MW 457 547 662 732 816 1,003 1,058 1,158 1,258 1,438
CAPACITY
TOTAL NETT CAPACITY MW 410 500 614 684 805 992 1,047 1,147 1,247 1,427
The projected composition of power generation by fuel type in North Sulawesi from 2015 to 2024
Executive Summary Electricity Supply Business Plan PT PLN (Persero) 2015-2024
is shown in Figure-17. The role of oil for power generation in North Sulawesi in 2015 is remain high,
at around 911GWh (43%). From 2017, the use of oil for power generation is expected to be reduced
and replaced by natural gas with the availability of combined cycle gas-fired/gas-fired turbine/engine
peake rusing LNG/CNG gas and coal-fired power plants. Coal-fired power generation will increase
from 458 GWh (22%) in 2015 to 3,600 GWh (62%) in 2024. From 2019, power generated from
coal will be higher than geothermal plants after most of the coal-fired power plant projects become
operational. Power generated from geothermal plants will increase from 551 GWh (25%) in 2015
to 1,030 GWh (18%) in 2024, when Lahendong IV-V and Kotamobagu geothermal plants become
operational. The oil consumption in North Sulawesi will continue to decline from 239 thousand
kilolitres in 2015 and will be stopped in 2019 after non fuel oil power plants are fully operated.
The use of coal is expected to increase from 347 thousand tons in 2015 to 2.7 million tons in 2024,
or an increase of 8 times. LNG will be used from 2017 at 3 bcf and will increase to 7 bcf in 2024. LNG
will be used to operate peaking power plants. The use of geothermal energy will continue to increase
from 551 GWh in 2015 to 1,030 GWh in 2022. The increase in hydropower is relatively small since
the potential is low - from 208 GWh in 2015 to 303 GWh in 2024.
32
6,000
5,000
4,000
GWh
3,000
2,000
1,000
-
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
The integration of the Sulbagsel system which comprises Central Sulawesi (Sulteng), West Sulawesi
(Sulbar), South East Sulawesi (Sultra) and South Sulawesi (Sulsel), is planned to be completed in
2017. To date, Sulteng and Sultra systems are still in deficit condition, on the other hand, the power
supply in South and West Sulawesi system is surplus. In order to meet long term electricity needs
over the period of 2015-2024, non-oil power plant projects with a total capacity of 4,550 MW in
Apart from power distribution from the power supply center to the demand center, the transmission
system also aims to build an interconnection among sub-systems, connect isolated electrical systems
to the grid, overcome any bottlenecks, and to meet the N-1 reliability criteria.
The transmission system development plan in Sulbagsel system is shown in Figure-18. EVH 275 kV
substation in Woku is planned to be the main knot for evacuating power from surrounded hydro
power plants to load centers including capital city of provinces. The 275 kV transmission line is the
main backbone in delivering power in Sulbagsel system.
33
Projects Unit 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
CAPACITY
Installed Capacity MW 1,545 1,745 1,778 1,353 1,024 1,070 1,070 1,070 1,070 1,070
Nett Capacity MW 1,465 1,665 1,685 1,348 1,068 1,018 1,018 1,058 1,058 1,058
PLN MW 394 394 430 381 251 251 251 291 291 291
IPP MW 820 820 820 767 767 767 767 767 767 767
RENTAL MW 250 250 235
Mobile Power Plant MW 200 200 200 50
Retired & Mothballed 87 178
CAPACITY ADDITION
ADDITION
Makassar Peaker CCPP 300 150
Sulsel Peaker CCPP 300 150
Punagaya (FTP2) CFPP 100 100
Jeneponto 2 CFPP 125 125
Kendari 3 CFPP 100
Sulsel Barru 2 CFPP 100
Sulsel 2 CFPP 200 200
Palu 3 CFPP 100
Wajo GEPP 20
Poso 1 HEPP 60 60
Poko HEPP 117 117
Konawe HEPP 50
Watunohu HEPP 15
Lasolo HEPP 73 73
Bakaru 2 HEPP 126
Karama (Unsolicited) HEPP 190
Bonto Batu (FTP2) HEPP 110
Malea (FTP2) HEPP 90
Salu Uro HEPP 48 48
Kalaena 1 HEPP 27 27
34
Projects Unit 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
TOTAL CAPACITY
MW 16 68 472 915 596 534 299 384 398 693
ADDITION
TOTAL SYSTEM
MW 1,560 1,829 2,334 2,824 3,091 3,671 3,970 4,353 4,751 5,444
CAPACITY
TOTAL NETT
MW 1,480 1,748 2,241 2,819 3,135 3,619 3,917 4,341 4,738 5,431
CAPACITY
1. PLTG
Minahasa Peaker
Minahasa GTPP
Peaker 150 150 MWMW - 2017
- 2017
Pandu 2. PLTG
Sulbagut Peaker
Sulbagut GTPP
Peaker 100 100 MWMW - 2024
- 2024
Paniki
P iki
Sario 3. PLTA
Sawangan
SawanganHEPP1212 MW MW - 2020
- 2020
eling
g
Teling
Tasikk Ria
a 4. PLTU
Sulut-3 CFPP100
Sulut-3 100MW MW 2019/20
2019/20
SULAWESI 525 Tomohon
mo
ohon U4
Tonseal
To
o lama
Tonsealama 5. PLTU
Sulbagut-2 CFPP200
Sulbagut-2 200MW MW 2022/23
2022/23
6 U Kawangk
Kawangkoan
Kaw
aw
w koan
Tolitoli Leok
Bolontio UTARA Lopana 7P
Ratahan
Ratah
R t h
han 6. PLTU
Amurang
SewaRental
Amurang CFPP50 MW 50 MW - 2017 - 2017
16 12 8
KALIMANTAN 13 Buroko Lolak 7. PLTP
Lahendong
Lahendong V GeoPP
V 20 MW 20 MW 2017 2017
TIMUR A
11 Belang
GORONTALO U
8. PLTP
Lahendong
Lahendong VI GeoPP
VI 20 MW 20 MW 2018 2018
Bangkir Bintauna
Marisa
Isimu Gobar
Otam
P
9 Tutuyan 9. PLTU
Sulut Sulut
I CFPP I 5050MWMW- 2018
- 2018
Botupingge
Limboto Suwawa
10 10. PLTP
Kotamobagu
Kotamobagu GeoPP - 80 80 MWMW - 2024
- 2024
U
G Tilamuta
Moutong 14 11. PLTA
Poigar-2 HEPP3030MW
Poigar-2 MW - 2021
- 2021
Tambu 15 Molibagu
12. PLTU
Sulbagut-1 CFPP100
Sulbagut-1 100 MW MW 2019/20
2019/20
13. PLTU
Gorontalo (FTP1)
Gorontalo CFPP
(FTP1) 5050 MW MW 2016/17
2016/17
14. PLTU
Sulbagut-3 CFPP100
Sulbagut-3 100 MW MW 2019/20
2019/20
35
Projected power generation in Sulbagsel from 2015 to 2024 is shown in Figure-19. Power generation
from oil in 2015 is expected to remain high, at 1,085 GWh (15%). However, beginning from 2019,
power generated from oil will be replaced by power generated from natural gas in the form of
LNG when the Makassar gas turbine/engine peaker plant and coal fired power plant become
operational. Power generated from gas fired power plants will increase nominally but decrease in
terms of percentage, i.e. from 2,009 GWh (27%) in 2015 to 4,114 GWh (18%) in 2024. This is due to
additional capacity from gas fired power plants (Sengkang combined cycle gas-fired plant) owned by
the private sector and peaker power plants running on LNG. Power generated from coal fired power
plants will increase from 2,452 GWh (33%) in 2015 to 9,320 GWh (41%) in 2024. Power generated
by hydropower will increase from 1,982 GWh (26%) in 2015 to 8,650 GWh (38%) in 2024 when
several hydropower projects become operational, namely Bonto Batu, Malea, Karama, Bakaru II,
Poko, Poso II, Konawe and Watunohu.
The oil consumption in the Sulbagsel system is expected to decrease from 280 thousands kiloliters
in 2015 and will be stopped in 2019 after after non-fuel oil plants become operational. The use of
coal will continue to increase from 1.8 million tons in 2015 to 7.0 million tons in 2024, or an increase
of 4 times. The volume of natural gas usage, including LNG, will also continue to rise from 20 bcf in
2015 to 38 bcf in 2024. LNG will only be used for operating peaking power plants. Production from
geothermal plants amounting to 421 GWh will commence in 2024.
25,000
20,000
Executive Summary Electricity Supply Business Plan PT PLN (Persero) 2015-2024
15,000
GWh
10,000
5,000
-
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
HSD MFO LNG Gas Coal Geothermal Hydro
36
Lombok 150 kV power system was in operation since 2013 after Jeranjang Unit 3 (1x25 MW) was
operated to supply the demand for Mataram area. To date, the system has been expanded to East
Lombok system by an interconnection with Pringgabaya substation after 150 kV transmission lines
are completed.
In order to satisfy the long term demand for 2015-2024, there is several non-fuel oil power plants
with total capacity of 685 MW has been planned to be developed in Lombok system. The projects are
mini-hydro power plants (5 MW), coal fired powerplats (450 MW), steam gas power plants (210 MW)
and geothermal power plants (20 MW). Table-16 shows generation development plan in Lombok
system.
Projects 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Demand
Energy Production GWh 1,204 1,341 1,445 1,642 1,789 2,023 2,200 2,395 2,580 2,779
Load Factor % 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64
Gross Peak Load MW 214 238 257 292 318 359 391 425 458 493
Nett Peak Load MW 196 217 239 264 290 318 349 381 414 449
Supply
Installed Capacity MW 221 221 124 96 31 31 31 31 31 31
Nett Capacity 237 237 90 74 27 27 27 27 27 27
PLN 85 85 85 68 22 22 22 22 22 22
IPP 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
RENTAL 97 97 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOBILE POWER PLANT MW 50 50
Retired & Mothballed 0 0 0 17 46 0 0 0 0 0
37
The expansion plan for 150 kV transmission system in Lombok is given in Figure-20. The expansion
planning for 150 kV transmission system and substations is intended to evacuate power from
generation to load centers. Moreover, it also has a purpose to prevent bottleneck as well as to
increase operational reliability and flexibility. Therefore, it is planned that 150 kV transmission lines
will be expanded surrounding Lombok island (looping system).
The development of the transmission grid throughout Lombok system for the period 2015-2024
covers 588 kms and requires investments of US$ 99 billion
GI Pringgabaya
G 0
GI Mataram
Kabel Tanah
G 0
5.6 km - 2015
Ampenan Diesel PP
GI Ampenan Lombok MPP
55 MW 50 MW (2016)
D
Taman Diesel PP
D
9,6 MW
GI Mantang
GI Selong
Lombok APBN CFPP U
GI Jeranjang
1x25 MW
U
Executive Summary Electricity Supply Business Plan PT PLN (Persero) 2015-2024
Projected energy production for Lombok system from 2015 to 2024 is shown in Figure-21. The role of
fuel oil in 2015 is still significant, 852 GWh (70%). However, from 2018, the role will be fully replaced
by natural gas in from of CNG, in line with the operation of Lombok peaking steam gas power plant
and coal fired plants. In energy production number, the use of gas is higher, however, in percentage,
it is lower. The production is 329 GWh (23%) in 2015 and become 386 GWh (15%) in 2024. This
is due to the addition of Lombok Peaker 2 gas/gas engine/steam gas power plant. The role of coal
fuel is dominant. Its production is 315 GWh (26%) in 2015 and increases up to 2.213 GWh (80%)
in 2024. Similarly, the role of hydro power plants also increases. The production is 36 GWh (3%)
in 2015 and increase up to 40 GWh (1%) in 2024, in line with the operation of mini hydro projects
throughout Lombok system. Whilst, Geothermal in Lombok system will contribute approximately
139 GWh in 2021.
38
3,000
2,500
2,000
GWh
1,500
1,000
500
-
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
HSD MFO LNG Gas Coal Geothermal Hydro
The supply of gas for electricity system for East Indonesia Region is shown by Tabel-17.
No Power Plant Gas Supplier 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
EASTERN INDONESIA
LNG PLN Batam
1 Pontianak Peaker 5 5 5 5 5 5
(potential)
2 Bangkanai Salamander 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
3 Kalsel Peaker 1 JOB Simenggaris 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
JOB Simenggaris
4 Kalsel Peaker 2 5 5 5 5
(potential)
Pertamina EP TAC
5 Nunukan 3 3 3 3
Sembakung
Medco South
6 Nunukan 2 Sebuku Bengara 3 3 3 3 3 3
(potential)
7 Tanjung Batu TAC Semco 4
8 Tanjung Batu Bontang 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
9 Kaltim APBN Bontang 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
10 Sambera Bontang 10 10 10 10 10
11 Kaltim Peaker 2 JOB Simenggaris 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
12 Batakan JOB Simenggaris 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
Salamander
13 Kaltim Peaker 3 Lapangan Tutung 5 5 5
(potential)
39
No Power Plant Gas Supplier 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Perusda Nusa
14 Tanjung Selor 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Serambi Persada
15 Senipah Total Senipah 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
LNG Sengkang
16 Minahasa Peaker 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
(Wasambo)
LNG Sengkang
17 Gorontalo Peaker 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
(Wasambo)
Perusda Banggai
18 Luwuk 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
(Cendanapura)
19 Energy Equity Epic
Sengkang 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35
(Sengkang)
LNG Sengkang
20 Makassar Peaker 15 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
(Wasambo)
Marine CNG dari
21 Lombok Peaker 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
Gresik
PLN has prepared a development plan for New and Renewable Energy (EBT) as shown in Table-18.
The development plan comprises of :
Mini hydro power plants: PLN encourages the development of mini-hydro plants by the private
sector to meet the local demand and to be distributed to the PLN grid;
Wind turbine generating plants: As the potential for wind power in Indonesia is limited, the
development of wind turbine generating plants will be limited to areas with wind power
potential;
Biomass: PLN intends to build biomass power plants in the areas with abundance of biomass
supply.
Marine energy: Even though the potential of marine energy is estimated to be large, the
technology and economics of marine power plant development are still unknown, hence PLN
will conduct small scale pilot tests as research and development projects;
Biofuel: Depending on the readiness of the biofuel market, PLN prepares to utilize biofuel if it is
available;
Solar power plants: PLN will develop solar plants, especially in outer and isolated areas to
improve the electrification ratios.
40
Taking into account the wide geographical distribution of the population and difficulties in reaching
remote areas, PLN plans to build solar power plants as follows: centralized/communal solar power
plants (independent or hybrid operating mode). The components of hybrid solar power plants will
be adapted to the potential of particular prime energy available in the areas. With hybrid method, it
is expected that the electricity system can be operated optimally. The hybrid configuration is not only
planned for the locations that are not electrified yet, but also for the locations where fuel oil power
plants or any similar types of power plants are operated. The power plants will be operated in hybrid
mode with the existing power plants.
The development of these solar power plants is intended to electrify remote areas in order to increase
electrification ratio, to prevent additional used of oil proportionally due to an addition of load the
system served by diesel power plants, and to decrease production cost in certain areas where the
transportation cost for fuel oil are expensive; e.g. around the mountain peaks of Jayawijaya Papua.
1 MHPP MW 67 40 156 172 123 135 272 297 130 150 1542
2 Solar PV MWp 6 20 25 30 35 35 35 40 45 50 321
3 Wind PP MW 0 40 40 40 40 40 50 50 50 50 400
4 Biomass PP MW 15 30 40 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 435
5 Ocean PP MW 0 1 1 3 3 5 5 5 5 10 38
6 SPD CPO MW 0 30 30 40 40 45 45 50 50 55 385
7 PTMTD-LCS MW 0 0 15 20 25 35 35 40 40 40 250
8 Bio-Fuel Thousand kL 350 500 550 550 600 600 650 700 750 800 6050
TOTAL MW 88 161 307 355 316 345 492 532 370 405 3,371
Besides the 6 interconnected power systems, there are more than 100 isolated systems spread
throughout the Eastern Indonesia region. The systems are spread over the provinces of Maluku,
North Maluku, Papua, West Papua, West Nusa Tenggara, East Nusa Tenggara and Riau Islands as well
as Nias island, Belitung, Buton, Selayar, Karimun Java, Bawean and many other islands.
The system planning process in RUPTL 2015-2024 does not take into account the CO2 emissions
cost as one of variable costs. However, this does not mean that RUPTL ignoring the CO2 emissions
reduction. It can be seen from the number of geothermal and hydropower power plant candidates set
into the electrical system, even though they are not the lowest cost solution. The use of supercritical
boiler technology and ultra supercritical in Java also prove that PLN concerned with the efforts to
reduce CO2 emissions from power generation.
The amount of emissions is calculated from the amount of fuel used and converted into CO2 emissions
(in tonnes of CO2) by using a multiplier factor (emission factor) issued by the IPCC (Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change).
41
Juta tCO2
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
The average grid emission factor for Indonesia in 2015 was 0.867 kg CO2/kWh, will increase to 0.934
kgCO2/kWh in 2017. The grid emission factorin 2018 also quite high due to the delay of geothermal
and hydro power plant projects. The grid emission factor will further decline due to the operation of
geothermal power plants and hydro projects so that the average grid emission factor in 2024 became
0.758 kgCO2/kWh.
Executive Summary Electricity Supply Business Plan PT PLN (Persero) 2015-2024
PLN will utilise carbon finance opportunities through the UNFCCC or outside the UNFCCC framework.
Carbon finance project implementation will be applied to all activities within the PLN, which has the
potential to obtain carbon finance.
Since the year 2002 PLN is aware of funding opportunities of carbon through the Clean Development
Mechanism (CDM) and do some assessment of potential CDM projects, and results to date PLN
has signed several ERPA (Emission Reduction Purchase Agreements). In addition PLN also develop
projects through the VCM (Voluntary Carbon Mechanism).
Since the expiration of the first commitment of the Kyoto Protocol by the end of 2012, the use of
carbon finance will be adjusted to the new carbon financing mechanisms, both within and outside
the UNFCCC framework of the UNFCCC.
42
Based on the probability and impact if the risks occur, the risks have been mapped as shown in
Figure-23. The assessment of the risks and impact have been conducted with qualitative method
based on PLNs experience in carrying out similar programs in the past, and PLNs experience in
handling such risks in the past.
Determination of the risk impact is based on the impact to company cash flow and the impact on
smooth operation of the company
Very Large E
3 10 4 5
Large D
LEVEL OF PROBABILITY
7 11 1 2 9
Medium C
6 8 12
Small B
Very Small A
SCALE OF IMPACT
Description :
EXTREME RISK: HIGH RISK:
3 Limited funding capacity risk 1 Change in electricity sector order/policy risk
4 PLN and IPP project completion delay risk 2 Unrealized electricity tariff rationalization risk
5 Unconformity power plant and transmission line risk 6 Non-oil primary energy supply constrain risk
7 Electricity consumption higher than demand projection risk
10 Increase of primary energy price risk 8 Power plant and transmission performance degradation risk
9 Transmission line system bottlenecking risk
11 Environmental risk
12 Disaster risk
CONCLUSION
Assuming the economic growth during the next ten years average 6.8% and increasing from actual
electricity demand in 2014, projected electricity sales in 2024 are estimated to reach 464 TWh or a
growth rate of 8.7% over the next 10 years. The peak load in 2024 is projected to reach 74.5 GW.
In order to meet electricity demand, the development of new power plants during the period 2015-
2024 with total capacity of 70.1 GW has been planned.
43
The overall investment required for power generation, transmission and distribution for the period
2015 2024 to meet the requirement of electrical power infrastructure development in Indonesia
is US$ 132.2 billion, consisting of power generation investment (including IPP) of US$ 97.0 billion,
transmission system investment of US$ 20.6 billion and distribution system of US$ 14.5 billion.
The funds for PLN investment will be met by PLN internal funds, loan/debt and the government equity
participation. PLNs internal funding capacity is limited and as such, all funds required for investment
will be obtained from debt. PLNs investment needs to be supported by increasing capacity for self-
funding and maintaining the ratio of debt to PLNs assets, so that it would continue to support the
development of electrical power supply. The role of the government equity participation each year
will be significant because it is politically difficult to raise electricity tariff to a level higher than the
basic generating cost (BPP) in the near term.
Executive Summary Electricity Supply Business Plan PT PLN (Persero) 2015-2024
44