Energy Technology Final Project:

Thin-Film Building-Integrated Photovoltaics

Cassidee Kido, Lesley Chen-Young, Tyler Wakefield, Daniel Herron, Jack
Carey

24 April 2017
Section 1: Background

History and Stakeholders

Polycrystalline thin-film solar cells were first researched for use in space. After the world energy
crisis in the early 1970s, research funding was directed towards terrestrial solar cell
applications. The United States, Japan, and many European countries heavily funded
photovoltaic (PV) research in the late 1970s, with funding peaking in 1980 from the US at
USD$150 million.1 In the late 1970s, solar-powered calculators featuring thin-film cells entered
the market. By the 1980s, companies began developing PV shingle prototypes and blending PV
with building materials.2 This marriage of photovoltaic technology and building materials is the
basis for Building Integrated Photovoltaics (BIPV).

In the early 1990s, government programs in the U.S., Europe, and Asia were designed to help
commercialize innovative BIPV projects. Specifically, the United States funded Building
Opportunities in the U.S. for PV (PV: BONUS). PV:BONUS funded industry based collaborations
and research to advance BIPV technologies, with an end goal of free market viability. In 2001, a
German-Italian research project known as PV ACCEPT worked to do just that. This
collaboration of architects, students, and the European Commission found that a convincing
PV-design constitutes a determining factor for the acceptance of PV technology in
construction.3 The publication from this study improved functional and aesthetic application of
BIPV, appealing to a broader public market.

Efforts to improve BIPV continued across multiple platforms. The International Energy Agency
(IEA) conducted numerous programs between 1996 and 2004 that addressed economic viability
of building integration, along with grid connection issues. The IEA worked to link, and enhance
PV and BIPV technological developments in Europe, the US, Japan, and Australia.4 Additionally,
Chinas State Development Planning Commission participated in these programs and actively
supported BIPV research at the University of Hong Kong5. This research has sprouted obvious
success. One of the largest BIPV projects, a 6.5 MW system at the Hongqiao Railway Station in

1
A. Catalano. Polycrystalline Thin-Film Technologies: Status and Prospects, (Hawaii, IEEE, 1994), 1.
2
James, Ted, Alan Goodrich, Michael Woodhouse, Robert Margolis, and Sean Ong. National Renewable Energy
Lab. Building-Integrated Photovoltaics (BIPV) in the Residential Sector: An Analysis of Installed Rooftop System
Prices. Golden, Colorado: US Department of Energy, 2011. Accessed April 19, 2017.
3
Heinstein, P., Ballif, C., & Perret-Aebi, L. (2013). Building integrated photovoltaics (BIPV): Review potentials
barriers and myths. Green, 3(2), 125-156. doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/green-2013-0020.
4
Heinstein et al., 2013, 8
5
Close, Josie. BIPV for the high-temperature, high-rise, high-density cities of S. China: The related projects of PV
HKU research group to facilitate BIPV application, Solar Energy Materials and Solar Cells, Volume 67, Issues 14,
March 2001, Pages 449-458, ISSN 0927-0248,
China, was completed prior to the Shanghai International BIPV Forum and exhibition in 201167.
In 2006, an annual conference titled, Energy Forum on Solar Building Skins began in Italy. This
conference included high level speakers, discussions, and opportunities for collaboration to
improve BIPV. In 2008, the U.S. Department of Energys (DOE) National Renewable Energy
Laboratory (NREL) provided thin-film technology to U.S. companies for private development.8
General Electric (GE) used this technology, along with a $600 million investment to build the
countrys largest thin-film solar panel production factory. This factory produces enough BIPV
film to cover 80,000 homes annually.9

Overall, increasing partnerships between PV manufacturers, architects, and building material

suppliers were formed to lower costs and barriers for BIPV. Currently, solar comprises 0.9% of
the energy market in the United States10, and 10% of the solar market globally11. Combined with
policy directives like the European Building Directive of 2010, which demands nearly
zero-energy buildings for new construction by 2020, the future of BIPV is looking bright.

Operation
There are four different types of thin-film solar modules depending on the material used:
amorphous silicon (a-Si) and thin-film silicon (TF-Si); cadmium telluride (CdTe); copper indium
gallium diselenide (CIS or CIGS); and dye-sensitized solar cells (DSC) plus other organic
materials.12 A-Si, TF-Si, and CdTe cells make up the vast majority of the thin-film market, while
DSC cells lag behind due to their low efficiency despite an impressive price to performance
ratio.13 The difference between thin-film and c-Si solar cells is the thin and flexible pairing of
layers and the photovoltaic material: either cadmium telluride (CdTe) or copper indium gallium
diselenide (CIGS) instead of silicon.14 With a thin semiconductor deposited on either glass,
plastic, or a metal foil substrate, thin-film cells can be as thin as .22 mm, compared to 200 mm

6
James et al., 2011, 5
7
Heinstein et al., 2013, 22
8
Le, Minh. Enegy.Gov. New GE Plant to Produce Thin Film PV Solar Panels Based on NREL Technology. April 22,
2011. Accessed April 15, 2017.
https://energy.gov/articles/new-ge-plant-produce-thin-film-pv-solar-panels-based-nrel-technology
9
Le, Minh, 2011, 1
10
What is US electricity generation by source? Energy Information Administration April 18, 2017. Accessed April
21, 2017. https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=427&t=3
11
Johnson, Timothy. Class 15. In Person, Durham, March 2, 2017.
12
Dirjish, Mat. Electronic Design. Whats the Difference Between Thin-Film and Crystalline Solar Panels?. May 16,
2012. Accessed April 20, 2017.
http://electronicdesign.com/power-sources/what-s-difference-between-thin-film-and-crystalline-silicon-solar-pan
els
13
Souto, Will. Azo Nono. What is a Dye-Sensitized Solar Cell? January 28, 2013. Accessed April 20, 2017.
http://www.azonano.com/article.aspx?ArticleID=3175
14
Dirjish, 2017, 1
for multicrystalline silicon wafer cells.15 Thus, cells are not only thinner, but also lighter and
flexible.

Thin-film solar cells can be integrated into building designs with a range of aesthetic and
structural considerations in mind. Purely aesthetic applications include curtain walls, which are
an exterior facade that provides no support to the building. Flexible thin-film panels can also be
laid over curved roofs where rack mounted PV would upset aesthetic design intentions or be
too difficult to install economically. Thin-film cells are also able to be glazed over existing
windows without losing translucency, and can be glazed onto other opaque materials. Glazing
allows a range of creativity with different dyes and patterns available. More structural
applications include solar shingles used instead of traditional shingle material, or translucent
roofs that use either glazing or a combination of glass and opaque thin-film.

Environmental Benefits and Disbenefits

There are various environmental benefits and concerns associated with thin-film photovoltaics.
The cadmium telluride (CdTe) cell has raised concerns due to the materials toxicity. While it
can be toxic if ingested, inhaled, or mishandled, studies from the DOE have shown there is little
risk from large scale CdTe PV use.16 However, many European countries and China take stronger
precautions than the U.S. against CdTe harms. While there is little concern over damage from
CdTe in a residential or urban environment, some worry that cracking and deteriorating cells on
a large-scale farm could release significant quantities of CdTe that could damage ecosystems.

Thin-film manufacturing has several benefits as compared with crystalline Si PV. Corresponding
to their lower efficiencies, thin-film PV requires less energy in manufacturing than crystalline Si
PV, which leads to fewer sulfur oxide (SOx), nitrogen oxide (NOx), particulate matter (PM), and
carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions per kilowatt hour (kWh) produced.17 Crystalline Si PV also
requires more water and abiotic material input, and poses a greater freshwater ecotoxicity risk
than thin-film PV in the production process.18

On another positive note, if integrated intelligently into a building, thin-film glazing or opaque
patterning can reduce cooling needs as they can decrease solar insolation entering through
windows. BIPV is generally built for on-site consumption; thus, while it has a lower efficiency

15
Zipp, Kathie. Solar Power World. How Does Thin-Film Solar Work? May 1, 2013. Accessed April 20, 2017.
http://www.solarpowerworldonline.com/2013/05/how-does-thin-film-solar-work/
16
Solar Facts and Advice. Cadmium Telluride - The Good and the Bad. 2013.
http://www.solar-facts-and-advice.com/cadmium-telluride.html
17
Fthenakis, Vasilis M. et al., Emissions from Photovoltaic Life Cycles. (New York, PV Environmental Research
Center, 2007) 6.
18
Raugei, Marco et al., Life Cycle Assessment and Energy Pay-Back Time of Advanced Photovoltaic Modules: CdTe
and CIS Compared to Poly-Si. (Siena Italy, University of Siena, 2007) 4 -7.
than most crystalline solar panels found in solar farms, it has minimal transmission losses.
Additionally, BIPV utilizes buildings and space that are needed for other purposes whereas solar
farms typically require land that functions solely to produce power.

Economics and Other Potential Advantages and Disadvantages

BIPV has many appealing characteristics that all contribute to interest and investment from a
variety of resources. Compared to traditional PV, there is potential for decreased installation
and materials costs. BIPV does not require racking hardware and can utilize traditional roofing
labor, reducing costs by $0.55/W19. Additionally, BIPV replaces the need for traditional roofing,
eliminating that material cost from construction. Improved aesthetics over racked PV panels
are a significant advantage in some markets, creating a willingness in consumers to pay a
premium. BIPV is not limited to roofs for racking like majority of PV; it can be integrated onto
building sides and windows. This increases the area and thus the potential power output20.
Thin-film BIPV, the most common form, ranges between 6 to 11 percent efficiency, significantly
less than crystalline silicon PV of about 15 percent21. BIPV can be made from thick silicon crystal
as well, but has limited installation capabilities due to its weight and rigidity22. BIPV has the
potential to be less costly than PV in some circumstances (i.e. crystalline shingles), but due to
the decreased efficiency of thin-film and the customization required by architects in the design
process, this is often not the case2324.

Section 2: Adoption

Barriers
Many of the barriers to adoption of thin-film building integrated solar stem from issues related
to general BIPV. As Understanding Carbon Lock-in discusses the ways in which industrial
economies are dependent on carbon-based systems, the renewable energy market in many
ways has become dependent on traditional rack-mounted solar panels. As of 2009, BIPV or
semi-integrated PV products made up less than 1% of global installed capacity of distributed
systems25. In this regard, there have been many developments specifically related to
rack-mounted solar that make it even more difficult for BIPV to make an entrance to the
market.

19
James, et al., 2011, 12
20
James, et al., 2011, 15
21
James, et al., 2011, 6
22
Abhishek, Shah. "BIPV SOLAR." Green World Investor RSS. N.p., 14 Aug. 2011. Web. 24 Apr. 2017.
23
IBID, 2011, 1
24
James et al., 2011, 13
25
James et al., 2011, 5
First and foremost is the economic aspect. From 2007 to 2010, BIPV on new homes still sold for
about 8% more than traditional PV26. As shown in Figure 2.1, prices at that time for BIPV did not
fall as rapidly as those for traditional PV. It is reasonable to assume that in another 7 years,
BIPV costs have fallen since 2010 given that solar costs are now less than half of what they were
and now closer to $3/W.

Figure 2.1 : Average installed system prices of rooftop PV and BIPV systems (2-to 3-kW systems)
on newly constructed homes in the United States27

Part of the reason that BIPV has struggled to gain a foothold in the market is that it is much less
efficient than traditional PV, which already only has commercial efficiencies of around 15-20%28
. Because BIPV are integrated into the envelope of the building, the PV panels are not installed
at an ideal angle and often have little ventilation, leading to increased operating temperature.
For PV integrated into a vertical wall or facade, annual performance losses can be as high as
30% or more29 and lack of space for ventilation can lead to 6% loss annually as well as thermally
accelerated degradation30.

Additionally, the economics of BIPV as compared to traditional PV make the most sense when
factored into the original design of the building because the additional cost of the materials is
offset by the labor costs and design issues associated with installing traditional PV31. Thus, it

26
James et al., 2011, 2
Many of the reports that give a more detailed analysis of these costs were only available online for purchase.
27
James et al., 2011, 3
28
Johnson, Timothy. Class 14. In Person, Durham, February 28, 2017
29
Eiffert, Patrina and Gregory J. Kiss. National Renewable Energy Lab. Building-Integrated Photovoltaic Designs for
Commercial and Institutional Structures. 2000. Accessed April 19,2017.
30
Schams, Benjamin and GovindaSamy TamizhMani. BAPV modules with different air gaps: Effect of temperature
on relative energy yield and lifetime. 2011. Accessed April 19, 2017.
31
Building-Integrated Photovoltaics. Solar Energy Industries Association. Accessed April 19, 2017.
http://www.seia.org/policy/solar-technology/photovoltaic-solar-electric/building-integrated-photovoltaics
may make sense in buildings that are being constructed or completely remodeled, but for
already established buildings, the economics of traditional PV make more sense. Even so, there
are additional labor costs associated with BIPV because there are often more modules for a
given area and thus more wiring and electrical work needed32.

There are also other aspects that make it difficult for BIPV to enter the market. Traditional PV
and BIPV have different durability, safety, performance, and certification processes and while a
lot of these issues have been addressed for traditional PV, there is still a lot of uncertainty with
BIPV33. Additionally, even though BIPV incorporates PV, both come from different market
sectors. Stakeholders for BIPV products may include glassmakers, roofers, and architects
whereas traditional stakeholders for PV are mainly solar installers and manufacturers.
Oftentimes, it is hard for producers of these new types of BIPV integrated materials to market
their products into the mainstream construction market given that BIPV often needs to be
integrated into the original design of a building34. For BIPV to make an even larger dent in the
market, there needs to be sufficient support from these different sectors as well.

Drivers
The significant growth experienced in the renewable energy industry over the last decade
suggests the locked in energy landscape could finally be shifting. With a market share
approaching 8 billion USD in 2015, thin-film building-integrated solar has played an important
role in this equation. As a result of policy-based incentives, technological advantages, and
positive social influences thin-film solar is forecasted to sustain a 16% annual growth rate over
the next eight years35.

Largely responsible for the recent growth in solar installation, the Solar Investment Tax Credit
(ITC) has signaled a shift in the institutional energy dynamic. Despite continued subsidies for the
fossil fuel industry, the ITC is proof the federal government recognizes the importance of
renewable integration. They are directly encouraging consumers to do the same by providing a
tax credit equal to 30% of their solar investment36. Since implementation of the ITC in 2006, the
Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) reports solar installation has maintained a 76 percent
compound annual growth rate37. As the ITC has recently been extended through 2021,
continued growth of the PV market bodes well for building-integrated solar technology.

32
James et al., 2011, 6
33
James et al, 2011, 9
34
NanoMarkets, LC. Cost, Design, and Technology Strategies for Building-Integrated Photovoltaics (BIPV) Glass.
AZO Materials. Last modified May 16, 2014. Accessed April 19, 2017.
http://www.azom.com/article.aspx?ArticleID=10986
35
Thin Film Solar Cells Market. Global Market Insights December 2016. Accessed April 21, 2017.
36
Business Energy Investment Tax Credit. Energy.gov. Accessed April 19, 2017
37
Solar Investment Tax Credit (ITC). Solar Energy Industries Association. A
ccessed April 19, 2017.
Net metering and feed-in tariffs (FIT), two similar payback programs for residential generation,
represent additional institutional drivers of thin-film solar integration. Net metering allows
consumers to offset their energy use with self-produced electricity and feed-in tariffs establish
a long-term, contractual agreement under which the utility must purchase energy from the
consumer at a fixed rate38. While they operate differently, both policies provide reimbursement
for the residential and commercial production of solar energy. As forty-one states, Washington,
D.C., and four territories offer net metering, the effectiveness and widespread impact of these
institutional directives is indisputable39.

Increased promotion of sustainable building design presents another policy opportunity for
thin-film solar. After the U.S. Green Building Council introduced the Leadership in Energy and
Environmental Design (LEED) rating system in 2000, many state and local governments began
pursuing cleaner, more efficient infrastructure by establishing green building committees and
incorporating LEED criteria into their city zoning ordinances40. As initiatives like this become
more prevalent, the market for innovative renewable solutions such as thin-film solar will
continue to grow. Furthermore, architectural regulations regarding solar integration may
provide additional incentive to adopt thin-film technology. For example, Switzerland has
specific codes designed to protect the cultural significance of design that require all PV
installations to be directly integrated into the building envelope (i.e. BIPV)41. In cases like this
the dynamic nature of thin-film cells becomes extremely useful.

Thin-film solars greatest technological advantage is the ability to generate electricity in spaces
unsuitable for traditional rack-mounted panels. Building facades and low-load-capacity roofs
are two of the most common applications. Two separate studies conducted by the International
Energy Agency (IEA) and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) have attempted to
quantify the impact this additional generation could have on the countrys overall PV capacity.
Using building data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration and assuming a PV module
efficiency of 13.5%, NREL estimated the current national PV capacity to be around 660 GW from
rooftops alone. If this calculation is adjusted to include facades, PV-suitable space would
increase by roughly 35% which would boost the potential domestic PV capacity to nearly 900
GW42. Although this is most likely an overestimate considering the reduced capacity factors

38
Poullikkas, Andreas. "A comparative assessment of net metering and feed in tariff schemes for residential PV
systems." Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments 3 (2013): 1-8.
39
State Net Metering Policies. National Conference of State Legislatures. Accessed April 19, 2017.
40
Guiding Green Building Policy. U.S. Green Building Council. Accessed April 20, 2017.
41
James et al., 2011, 18
42
Ibid., 38
associated with cells tilted at 90, this would still represent significant potential growth for
thin-film technology which accounts for roughly 10 percent of the booming solar industry43.

There are also several unique applications of thin-film solar cells being explored that have the
potential to drive future production and implementation. As mentioned previously,
well-developed traditional PV markets could pose a threat to thin-film growth. This problem is
avoided, however, in developing countries with less robust construction infrastructure who
could go straight to thin-film technology that might also better suit their architectural demands
44
. Furthermore, the transportation industry could provide another driver as companies like
eNow are already advertising thin-film panels designed specifically for the trucking industry.
These modules would support various electrical systems such as lift gates, HVAC, and
refrigeration which could reduce overall maintenance costs, fuel consumption, and greenhouse
gas emissions45. Finally, thin-film solar has been of particular interest to the space industry as its
high power to mass ratio and resistance to radiation makes the technology a competitive
candidate for terrestrial generation46. While these may stray a bit from building-integrated
technologies, it is safe to assume that increased thin-film application will increase product
efficiencies and decrease costs of production.

From a social aspect, the aesthetic advantages associated with thin-film solar provide a final
driver of integration. Although it is difficult to objectively evaluate visual quality, modern
architectural trends suggest that the sleek nature of thin-film modules may be preferable to
bulky rack-mounted systems. Additionally, recent studies have successfully produced thin-film
cells capable of reflecting a range of colors by incorporating a dichroic film into the module47.
Along with the benefits semi-transparent films afford those working inside commercial
buildings, colored films would add unique aesthetic value to a buildings exterior. Thus, it is
evident that the array of aesthetic benefits associated with thin-film solar make it socially
desirable green generation option.

43
Johnson, Timothy. Class 15. In Person, Durham, March 2, 2017.
44
Back Out of Stealth: MiaSole Goes After New Solar Markets With Next-Gen Flexible Solar Product. Green Tech
Media. Accessed April 20, 2017.
45
Can Solar Improve Fleet Performance? eNow Energy. Accessed April 19, 2017.
http://www.enowenergy.com/can-enow-solar-really-improve-fleet-performance-reducing-expenses/
46
Otte, Karsten, Liudmila Makhova, Alexander Braun, and Igor Konovalov. "Flexible Cu (In, Ga) Se 2 thin-film solar
cells for space application." Thin Solid Films 511 (2006): 613-622.
47
Yoo, Gang Yeol, Jae Seung Jeong, Soyoung Lee, Youngki Lee, Hee Chang Yoon, Van Ben Chu, Gi Soon Park et al.
"Multiple color generating Cu (In, Ga)(S, Se) 2 thin film solar cells via dichroic film incorporation for power
generating window applications." ACS Applied Materials & Interfaces (2017).
Section 3: Market Share

Building-integrated photovoltaics (BIPV) are a promising technology for the commercial and
residential building markets, as well as the solar energy market. Additionally, they have distinct
technological and policy advantages-- such as the improved flexibility of thin-film solar, solar
ITC, residential and commercial net metering, and movements for sustainable building design--
over other, less developed technologies that have not achieved proof of concept. However,
these factors alone do not guarantee that BIPV will gain significant market share in 15 years. In
fact, after defining the market and what share would be significant, evidence suggests that
while BIPV has the potential to grow, significant market share is not feasible within this time
frame.

Defining the Market

Before we discuss whether significant market share is feasible for BIPV, it is first important to
define the market. We could examine the energy industry (of which solar comprises 0.9% of the
market in the United States48) or the solar energy industry (of which thin-film comprises 10% of
the market globally49) or even the construction and building materials industry. The latter is
much more difficult to track, but sources indicate that the global construction industry is sized
at US$8.5 trillion as of 201550. Given that the global market for BIPV was $2.4 billion in 201651,
we can estimate the market share of BIPV as a part of the current global construction market at
0.028%.

Defining Significant Market Share

After defining what our market is, we will then discuss what significant market share means so
that we can determine feasibility. Ironically enough, there isnt a magical percentage of market
share that economists agree on to be significant. However, it is widely agreed upon that
market share is key to profitability, so maximizing market share also maximizes the
attractiveness of any business or technology. The Rogers Innovation Bell Curve is a commonly

48
What is US electricity generation by source? Energy Information Administration April 18, 2017. Accessed April
21, 2017. https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=427&t=3
49
Johnson, Timothy. Class 15. In Person, Durham, March 2, 2017.
50
Global Construction Market Worth $10.3 Trillion in 2020. PR Newswire February 17, 2015. Accessed April 21,
2017.
http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/global-construction-market-worth-103-trillion-in-2020-50-largest-mo
st-influential-markets-292235961.html
51
Global Building Integrated Photovoltaic (BIPV) Technologies and Markets Will Grow from $2.4 billion in 2016 to
$4.3 billion by 2021. PR Newswire December 9, 2016. Accessed April 21, 2017.
http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/global-building-integrated-photovoltaics-bipv-technologies-and-mark
ets-will-grow-from-24-billion-in-2016-to-43-billion-by-2021---research-and-markets-300376008.html
cited metric for tracking how new technologies percolate through markets, and we abstractly
define significant as reaching into halfway through the sociological Early Majority, or at 32% of
the market. A visual of this innovation curve can be seen in Figure 3.1 below.

Figure 3.1: Rogers Innovation Bell Curve.52

How Likely is Significant Market Share?

Given that BIPV is currently at 0.028% of the global construction market, and that we have
defined significant market share at 32%, reaching this goal in 15 years seems daunting. On one
hand, projections about market growth from experts are inconclusive. Separately, several key
barriers seem to overwhelm the opportunities for BIPV, suggesting that reaching significant
market share in 15 years is unlikely.

Projections for market share growth have varied substantially. For thin-film alone, some experts
project that this technology will sustain a 16% annual growth rate over the next eight years53,
which would position thin-film solar at a 32.8% share of the solar market (since it currently
stands at 10%). If we were to extrapolate these values over 15 years, then we would expect
thin-film solar to comprise 92.7% of the solar market. Calculations of these figures are shown
below in Figure 3.2. This projection for thin-film solar seems to support further development of
BIPV projects. However, expert opinions on BIPV articulate that all of this thin-film market
growth will not be channeled towards the construction and buildings market. In August of 2015,
some reports suggested that the BIPV market would grow to USD$26 billion by 202254, whereas

52
Davis, Kylie. The Innovation Bell Curve. Elite Agent October 6, 2016. Accessed April 21, 2017.
https://eliteagent.com.au/the-innovation-bell-curve/
53
Thin Film Solar Cells Market. Global Market Insights December 2016. Accessed April 21, 2017.
https://www.gminsights.com/industry-analysis/thin-film-solar-cells-market
54
BIPV Market Worth 26 billion by 2022 says a new Research Report on BIPV Technologies and Markets for
2015-2022. PR Newswire August 18, 2015. Accessed April 21, 2017.
in December of 2016, new reports claimed that the BIPV market would grow to USD$4.3 billion
by 2021.55

FV = PV (1+i)n
FV(8) = 0.10 (1 + 0.16)8 = 0.328
FV(15) = 0.10 (1 + 0.16)15 = 0.927
Figure 3.2: Calculations for Thin-Film Market Share Growth based on 16% annual rate.

The drastic difference in these predictions speaks to a key concern: that there is little
confidence and certainty in the BIPV market. This can be further discussed in three main
categories: the utility-BIPV relationship, learning curves for architects and city planners, and the
investment threshold for developers. The combination of these elements explains the informed
opinion that gaining significant market share is unlikely.

The lack of confidence and certainty around BIPV is undoubtedly tied to the concern of utilities
and their ability to adapt to the changing energy industry. In most developed countries, like the
United States, utilities coordinate electricity transmission from a set number of large-scale
generation sources. However, the potential for localized, or distributed, electricity generation
through BIPV systems is abnormal for utilities, who are used to only supplying power outwards.
If BIPV systems are connected to the grid for support, when they generate excess electricity,
they might want to sell back electricity to the grid. Additionally, distributed generation means
that demand forecasts for the utility will change, even though long-term investments have
been made on historical demand projections. Finally, there is a growing fear that utilities would
be priced out of the market in a utility death spiral where distributed generators (like BIPV
systems) would connect to the grid for stability, but would rarely use the grids electricity. This
would raise distributional questions about the cost of maintaining system reliability, and as the
price of electricity from the grid increases, fewer consumers will use electricity from the grid. 56

The aforementioned concerns for utilities have, in some situations, imposed costly elements
like interconnection fees, net-metering tariffs, metering calibration charges, engineering fees,
standby charges, and liability insurance to distributed producers, including BIPV systems.57 The
lack of uniformity with these charges can be a huge deterrent for investors-- for example, the

55
Global Building Integrated Photovoltaic (BIPV) Technologies and Markets Will Grow from $2.4 billion in 2016 to
$4.3 billion by 2021. PR Newswire December 9, 2016.
56
Temby, Owen et al. Building-Integrated Photovoltaics: Distributed Energy Development for Urban
Sustainability. Environment: Science and Policy for Sustainable Development 56, no. 6 (2014): 4-17. Accessed April
21, 2017. Doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00139157.2014.964092, 12.
57
US Department of Energy. U.S. Guidelines for the Economic Analysis of Building-Integrated Photovoltaic Power
Systems. Colorado: National Renewable Energy Laboratory, 2000. Accessed April 21, 2017.
http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy00osti/25266.pdf, 26.
state of Idaho requires a USD$1 million liability insurance for distributed generation, whereas
the state of Oklahoma doesnt require any liability insurance.58 While tech giants like Elon Musk
assure that utilities will still be an integral part of the energy market moving forward59,
uncertainty for how to incorporate distributed generation is a huge barrier to market share
growth.

In addition to having difficulty navigating the relationship with utilities as a distributed

generator, BIPV systems also have a steep learning curve for architects and city planners alike.
The inclusion of electricity generation capacity on any building structure requires feasibility
studies, PV and electrical engineering, renewable energy expertise, and balance of plant
considerations-- most of which has to be contracted out.60 In the United States, economists
note: The expertise to implement BIPV is not well diffused among architects and engineers,
and standards for building integration are not well developed, making it expensive up front and
in the near term.61 This professional review cost also impacts homeowners and is a barrier to
installing BIPV for individuals.62 Additionally, more dense urban areas might have sunlight
accessibility issues. BIPV advocates call for right to light regulations, as some
environmentalists seek to minimize urban sprawl and others seek to maximize sun availability
for these systems.63 The City of Toronto notoriously requires buildings to submit sun-shadow
studies of any urban developments, which requires additional money and time to developers to
comply.64

This discussion of grid connection and developmental learning curve all return to a very simple
explanation of why significant market share is unlikely: the investment threshold is undefined,
and the costs that are confirmed are very high. BIPV power systems are highly capital
investment, and even though the operating and maintenance costs are low, the type of
individual to be attracted to BIPV is likely an owner-occupant of the building.65 In other words,

58
U.S. Guidelines for the Economic Analysis of Building-Integrated Photovoltaic Power Systems, 27.
59
McMahon, Jeff. Elon Musk Makes Room for Utilities Under Teslas Solar Roof. F orbes. Last modified October
28, 2016. Accessed April 21, 2017.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffmcmahon/2016/10/28/elon-musk-leaves-room-for-utilities-under-the-tesla-roo
f/#2039cd1e305e.
60
Bakos, G.C. et al. Techno-economic assessment of a building-integrated PV system for electrical energy saving
in residential sector. Energy and Buildings, no. 35 (2002): 757-762,
http://ac.els-cdn.com/S0378778802002293/1-s2.0-S0378778802002293-main.pdf?_tid=a37801ac-18cb-11e7-99f9
-00000aab0f01&acdnat=1491265036_08660b8ee238da984b4afd35dd6a34d8, 760.
61
Temby, Owen et al. Building-Integrated Photovoltaics: Distributed Energy Development for Urban
Sustainability., 6.
62
U.S. Guidelines for the Economic Analysis of Building-Integrated Photovoltaic Power Systems. 25.
63
Temby, Owen et al. Building-Integrated Photovoltaics: Distributed Energy Development for Urban
Sustainability., 12.
64
Ibid., 12.
65
U.S. Guidelines for the Economic Analysis of Building-Integrated Photovoltaic Power Systems, 6.
developers that are owner-investors will be looking to maximize ROI (which might take a long
time), owner-developers will be looking to minimize capital costs because ownership is
temporary, and owner-occupants will be looking to minimize operational and maintenance
costs. For this reason, owner-occupants are best poised to find BIPV investments attractive,
which is not the typical demographic of commercial builders. In fact, it is the profile of
residential customers.

While the above considerations suggest that significant market share growth is highly unlikely,
this analysis does not argue that BIPV will not experience any growth. Several policy incentives
exist around the world that would make BIPV attractive to developers. Notably, all new
commercial buildings in the U.S. must be energy neutral beginning in 2025, and new federal
buildings must follow suit in 2030.66 The European Unions Zero Energy Building (ZEB) target
sets a similar goal, with all new buildings required to be energy neutral beginning in 2020.67
Although these policies are promising, there may be other, more cost-effective ways of
achieving energy neutrality than installing BIPV systems. This difficulty in getting to
implementation can be seen in Hong Kong, where BIPV systems could generate more than 14%
of the electricity mix with all currently available technology and no additional land
requirements.68 However, the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of BIPV systems is still twice
the price of electricity on the island.69

What needs to happen?

BIPV systems are costly, threaten the existing grid structure, and are foreign to crucial actors
along the way to implementation. However, the potential for market share growth can be
recognized through government policy and financial help. As the Understanding Carbon Lock-In
article mentioned scale, learning, adaptive, and network economies must all come together to
advance BIPV technologies.70 With regulatory frameworks in place to formalize BIPV
applications, subsidies to encourage more installations, and financing programs to generate a
multiplier effect on investment, much of the uncertainty and confidence around BIPV could be
addressed.71 By adopting a multi-pronged approach, the investment threshold would be
reduced and confidence levels amplified.

66
Temby, Owen et al. Building-Integrated Photovoltaics: Distributed Energy Development for Urban
Sustainability., 11.
67
Ibid., 11.
68
Song, Aotian et al. A Study of Incentive Policies for Building-Integrated Photovoltaic Technology in Hong Kong.
Sustainability, no. 8 (2016): 769. doi:10.3390/su8080769, 2.
69
Ibid., 4.
70
Unruh, Gregory C. Understanding Carbon Lock-In. Energy Policy, no. 28 (2000): 817-830. Accessed April 21,
2017. Doi: http://doi.org/10.1016/S0301-4215(00)00070-7, 820.
71
Song, Aotian et al. A Study of Incentive Policies for Building-Integrated Photovoltaic Technology in Hong Kong.,
10.
While urban planning and BIPV-specific regulations would be necessary, it would also be
important to establish a working model for distributed generation for public utilities. If utilities
have the opportunity to redevelop revenue streams-- and customers had clear price signals and
efficiency, conservation, and performance-- BIPV systems could scale to take over much of the
new buildings market.72 Additionally, if growth among supplementary technological systems
(like battery storage technologies) and user knowledge continued, many of the learning and
network economies could be achieved. Luckily, the systems efficiency and cost-effectiveness
evolution trends are going up across the renewable energy industry.73

The figure below (Figure 3.3) illustrates the financial indices for alternative scenarios of BIPV
subsidies in Europe. Notably, with no subsidy the Return on Investment (ROI) is only 0.8%, and
the year-to-positive cash flow, the number of years it takes to begin making a profit is 27.6
years. Given that BIPV systems are projected to last only 25 years74, without a subsidy, investors
would never make a profit. The pressing need for government intervention (especially with
financial support) means that BIPV market growth is possible, but that gaining significant
market share in 15 years is still highly unlikely.

Figure 3.3: Financial Indices for Alternative Scenarios of BIPV Subsidies in Europe.75

72
Temby, Owen et al. Building-Integrated Photovoltaics: Distributed Energy Development for Urban
Sustainability., 14.
73
Thin Film Solar Cells Market.
74
U.S. Guidelines for the Economic Analysis of Building-Integrated Photovoltaic Power Systems, 28.
75
Bakos, G.C. et al. Techno-economic assessment of a building-integrated PV system for electrical energy saving
in residential sector., 761.
Bibliography
All footnotes are organized by section and are listed by order of appearance in each respective section.

Task 1: Background
1. A. Catalano. Polycrystalline Thin-Film Technologies: Status and Prospects, (Hawaii, IEEE, 1994), 1.
2. James, Ted, Alan Goodrich, Michael Woodhouse, Robert Margolis, and Sean Ong. National Renewable
Energy Lab. Building-Integrated Photovoltaics (BIPV) in the Residential Sector: An Analysis of Installed
Rooftop System Prices. Golden, Colorado: US Department of Energy, 2011. Accessed April 19, 2017.
3. Heinstein, P., Ballif, C., & Perret-Aebi, L. (2013). Building integrated photovoltaics (BIPV): Review
potentials barriers and myths. Green, 3(2), 125-156. doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/green-2013-0020
4. Close, Josie. BIPV for the high-temperature, high-rise, high-density cities of S. China: The related projects
of PV HKU research group to facilitate BIPV application, Solar Energy Materials and Solar Cells, Volume 67,
Issues 14, March 2001, Pages 449-458, ISSN 0927-0248, http://doi.org/10.1016/S0927-0248(00)00314-7.
(http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0927024800003147)
5. Le, Minh. Enegy.Gov. New GE Plant to Produce Thin Film PV Solar Panels Based on NREL Technology.
April 22, 2011. Accessed April 15, 2017.
https://energy.gov/articles/new-ge-plant-produce-thin-film-pv-solar-panels-based-nrel-technology
6. What is US electricity generation by source? Energy Information Administration April 18, 2017. Accessed
April 21, 2017. https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=427&t=3
7. Johnson, Timothy. Class 15. In Person, Durham, March 2, 2017.
8. Dirjish, Mat. Electronic Design. Whats the Difference Between Thin-Film and Crystalline Solar Panels?.
May 16, 2012. Accessed April 20, 2017.
http://electronicdesign.com/power-sources/what-s-difference-between-thin-film-and-crystalline-silicon-s
olar-panels
9. Souto, Will. Azo Nono. What is a Dye-Sensitized Solar Cell? January 28, 2013. Accessed April 20, 2017.
http://www.azonano.com/article.aspx?ArticleID=3175
10. Zipp, Kathie. Solar Power World. How Does Thin-Film Solar Work? May 1, 2013. Accessed April 20, 2017.
http://www.solarpowerworldonline.com/2013/05/how-does-thin-film-solar-work/
11. Solar Facts and Advice. Cadmium Telluride - The Good and the Bad. 2013.
http://www.solar-facts-and-advice.com/cadmium-telluride.html
12. Fthenakis, Vasilis M. et al., Emissions from Photovoltaic Life Cycles. ( New York, PV Environmental
Research Center, 2007) 6.
13. Raugei, Marco et al., Life Cycle Assessment and Energy Pay-Back Time of Advanced Photovoltaic Modules:
CdTe and CIS Compared to Poly-Si. (Siena Italy, University of Siena, 2007) 4-7.
14. Abhishek, Shah. "BIPV SOLAR." Green World Investor RSS. N.p., 14 Aug. 2011. Web. 24 Apr. 2017.

Task 2: Adoption
1. James, Ted, Alan Goodrich, Michael Woodhouse, Robert Margolis, and Sean Ong. National Renewable
Energy Lab. Building-Integrated Photovoltaics (BIPV) in the Residential Sector: An Analysis of Installed
Rooftop System Prices. Golden, Colorado: US Department of Energy, 2011. Accessed April 19, 2017.
2. Johnson, Timothy. Class 14. In Person, Durham, February 28, 2017
3. Eiffert, Patrina and Gregory J. Kiss. National Renewable Energy Lab. Building-Integrated Photovoltaic
Designs for Commercial and Institutional Structures. 2000. Accessed April 19,2017.
4. Schams, Benjamin and GovindaSamy TamizhMani. BAPV modules with different air gaps: Effect of
temperature on relative energy yield and lifetime. 2011. Accessed April 19, 2017.
5. Building-Integrated Photovoltaics. Solar Energy Industries Association. Accessed April 19, 2017.
http://www.seia.org/policy/solar-technology/photovoltaic-solar-electric/building-integrated-photovoltaic
s
 6. NanoMarkets, LC. Cost, Design, and Technology Strategies for Building-Integrated Photovoltaics (BIPV)
Glass. AZO Materials. Last modified May 16, 2014. Accessed April 19, 2017.
http://www.azom.com/article.aspx?ArticleID=10986
7. Thin Film Solar Cells Market. Global Market Insights December 2016. Accessed April 21, 2017.
8. Business Energy Investment Tax Credit. Energy.gov. Accessed April 19, 2017
9. Solar Investment Tax Credit (ITC). Solar Energy Industries Association. Accessed April 19, 2017.
10. Poullikkas, Andreas. "A comparative assessment of net metering and feed in tariff schemes for residential
PV systems." Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments 3 (2013): 1-8.
11. State Net Metering Policies. National Conference of State Legislatures. Accessed April 19, 2017.
12. Guiding Green Building Policy. U.S. Green Building Council. Accessed April 20, 2017.
13. Johnson, Timothy. Class 15. In Person, Durham, February 28, 2017.
14. Back Out of Stealth: MiaSole Goes After New Solar Markets With Next-Gen Flexible Solar Product. Green
Tech Media. Accessed April 20, 2017.
15. Can Solar Improve Fleet Performance? eNow Energy. A ccessed April 19, 2017.
http://www.enowenergy.com/can-enow-solar-really-improve-fleet-performance-reducing-expenses/
16. Otte, Karsten, Liudmila Makhova, Alexander Braun, and Igor Konovalov. "Flexible Cu (In, Ga) Se 2 thin-film
solar cells for space application." Thin Solid Films 511 (2006): 613-622.
17. Yoo, Gang Yeol, Jae Seung Jeong, Soyoung Lee, Youngki Lee, Hee Chang Yoon, Van Ben Chu, Gi Soon Park
et al. "Multiple color generating Cu (In, Ga)(S, Se) 2 thin film solar cells via dichroic film incorporation for
power generating window applications." ACS Applied Materials & Interfaces (2017).

Task 3: Market Share

1. What is US electricity generation by source? Energy Information. Administration April 18, 2017.
Accessed April 21, 2017. https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=427&t=3
2. Johnson, Timothy. Class 15. In Person, Durham, March 2, 2017.
3. Global Construction Market Worth $10.3 Trillion in 2020. P R Newswire February 17, 2015. Accessed
April 21, 2017.
http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/global-construction-market-worth-103-trillion-in-2020-50-la
rgest-most-influential-markets-292235961.html
4. Global Building Integrated Photovoltaic (BIPV) Technologies and Markets Will Grow from $2.4 billion in
2016 to $4.3 billion by 2021. PR Newswire December 9, 2016. Accessed April 21, 2017.
http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/global-building-integrated-photovoltaics-bipv-technologies-a
nd-markets-will-grow-from-24-billion-in-2016-to-43-billion-by-2021---research-and-markets-300376008.h
tml
5. Davis, Kylie. The Innovation Bell Curve. Elite Agent October 6, 2016. Accessed April 21, 2017.
https://eliteagent.com.au/the-innovation-bell-curve/
6. Thin Film Solar Cells Market. Global Market Insights December 2016. Accessed April 21, 2017.
https://www.gminsights.com/industry-analysis/thin-film-solar-cells-market
7. BIPV Market Worth 26 billion by 2022 says a new Research Report on BIPV Technologies and Markets for
2015-2022. PR Newswire August 18, 2015. Accessed April 21, 2017.
http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/bipv-market-worth-26-billion-by-2022-says-a-new-research-
report-on-bipv-technologies-and-markets-for-2015-2022-522139451.html
8. Temby, Owen et al. Building-Integrated Photovoltaics: Distributed Energy Development for Urban
Sustainability. Environment: Science and Policy for Sustainable Development 56, no. 6 (2014): 4-17.
Accessed April 21, 2017. Doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00139157.2014.964092.
9. US Department of Energy. U.S. Guidelines for the Economic Analysis of Building-Integrated Photovoltaic
Power Systems. Colorado: National Renewable Energy Laboratory, 2000. Accessed April 21, 2017.
http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy00osti/25266.pdf
10. McMahon, Jeff. Elon Musk Makes Room for Utilities Under Teslas Solar Roof. F orbes. Last modified
October 28, 2016. Accessed April 21, 2017.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffmcmahon/2016/10/28/elon-musk-leaves-room-for-utilities-under-the-
tesla-roof/#2039cd1e305e.
11. Bakos, G.C. et al. Techno-economic assessment of a building-integrated PV system for electrical energy
saving in residential sector. Energy and Buildings, no. 35 (2002): 757-762,
http://ac.els-cdn.com/S0378778802002293/1-s2.0-S0378778802002293-main.pdf?_tid=a37801ac-18cb-1
1e7-99f9-00000aab0f01&acdnat=1491265036_08660b8ee238da984b4afd35dd6a34d8.
12. Song, Aotian et al. A Study of Incentive Policies for Building-Integrated Photovoltaic Technology in Hong
Kong. Sustainability, no. 8 (2016): 769. doi:10.3390/su8080769.
13. Unruh, Gregory C. Understanding Carbon Lock-In. Energy Policy, no. 28 (2000): 817-830. Accessed April
21, 2017. Doi: http://doi.org/10.1016/S0301-4215(00)00070-7.