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Behavioral Economics, History Of: Michiru Nagatsu, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
Behavioral Economics, History Of: Michiru Nagatsu, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
Behavioral Economics, History Of: Michiru Nagatsu, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
Abstract
This article reviews the historical development of behavioral economics, with an emphasis on how it has become part of
mainstream economics. First I describe the separation between economics and psychology as a historical background against
which behavioral economics emerged. Then I introduce critiques of expected utility theory (EUT), and explain how
behavioral decision research developed using EUT as an experimental paradigm. I then distinguish old, new, and second-
wave behavioral economics, and briey discuss criticisms of the last.
International Encyclopedia of the Social & Behavioral Sciences, 2nd edition, Volume 2 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-08-097086-8.03053-1 443
444 Behavioral Economics, History of
desires solely from the observation of the agents simple statistician Frederick Mosteller (19162006) and his student
choices over lotteries, adopting an idealized folk Philip Nogee (1951), and by the psychologist Sidney Siegel
psychological scheme in which we act in the way we think (191661), philosophers Donald Davidson (19172003),
most likely to realize the objects of our desires, so that and Patrick Suppes (1922 to present) at Stanford (Stanford
a persons actions are completely determined by his desires Value Theory Project) (1955). Another student of Mosteller,
and opinions(Ramsey, 1931: 173). The mathematician John Ward Edwards (19272005), played a particularly important
von Neumann (190357), while working on the theory of role in the rise of behavioral economics, as we will see in the
strategic interactions and its application to economics, next section. Before discussing that, I will turn to the so-
axiomatized this system as EUT (von Neumann and called old behavioral economics below.
Morgenstern, 2004, originally published in 1944). (The full
axiomatization is given in the second edition published in
Old Behavioral Economics
1947.) von Neumann and Morgenstern (2004) proposed the
objective interpretation of probability (i.e., as relative Herbert Simon (19162001), one of the earliest critics of
frequencies of events in the long run), but anticipated models of rational choice in economics, was more radical than
subjective EUT, admitting that the subjective view of his contemporary critics of EUT. While these critics formulated
probability also leads to a satisfactory numerical concept of problems as implausibility of specic axioms of EUT, such as
utility (3.3.3: fn. 2). The mathematician Leonard Savage the independent axiom, Simon offered a more programmatic
(191771), a war-time assistant of von Neumann at the critique, as part of the broader contribution he made to
Institute for Advanced Study, Princeton, completed the the so-called cognitive revolution: a paradigm shift in the
subjective version of EUT, the foundation of modern decision postwar psychology from behaviorism to the computational
theory (Savage, 1954). (The idea of expected utility itself was modeling of internal cognitive processes. Simon argued that
already proposed by the Dutch-Swiss mathematician Daniel utility maximization models such as EUT, interpreted as
Bernoulli (170082) in 1738. Another important founder of representational models of cognitive processes of economic
subjective EUT is the Italian statistician Bruno de Finetti agents, are empirically unsound, drawing on the distinction
(190685), whose work is acknowledged in Savage (1954).) between substantive and procedural rationality. The former
As a result, it became possible to talk about the relative concerns an intelligent systems adjustment or adaptation to
intensity of preferences in an operationally meaningful and its outer environment (e.g., an economic agents reaction to
principled way, bringing the cardinal utility back in the market), whereas the latter concerns the systems ability
economic models of decision-making in a legitimate fashion. determined by its inner knowledge and computation that
At the same time, Savages theory made it possible to constrains the former (Simon, 1996: 25). A key idea is that we
measure subjective beliefs qua probabilities in an equally need only substantive rationality to predict behavior of the
rigorous manner. As we will see below, the birth of EUT system if both its goal and environment are simple; but since
proved to be crucial for the emergence of behavioral these factors and their interaction are in fact complex, Simon
economics. (In what follows, I simply use the term EUT, but argued, we have to explicitly consider the procedural
this should be read as a subjective version of the theory rationality of the system. From this bounded rationality
unless otherwise stated.) perspective, economic models of choice are decient because
they assume substantive rationality (individuals utility
maximization and organizations prot maximization in the
Early Criticisms of EUT market environment) when in fact these conditions are not
satised, requiring the explicit modeling of the inner workings
Savages EUT is not behavioristic as preference theory of the agent, be it a human being or a rm.
presumably aspired to be, because the former explicitly refers to Simons impact on mainstream economics, however, was
psychological constructs such as subjective beliefs and expected limited. Although he received the Nobel Memorial Prize in
utility. Nevertheless, economists welcomed it because the Economics in 1978 for his pioneering research into the
axiomatic approach was thought to guarantee the operationally decision-making process within economic organizations, his
meaningful and nonarbitrary measurement of these quantities. proposal that individual procedural rationality should be
EUT thus soon found its application in economics. As early as explicitly modeled was not accepted by mainstream
1948, Milton Friedman (19122006) collaborated with economics. Neither were his contemporary economists
Savage, putting forward EUT as an economic hypothesis to alternative methods and theories that drew on psychology
explain the coexistence of insurance and lotteries (Friedman and other social sciences. Although already in the 1960s the
and Savage, 1948). But no sooner than EUT was completed term behavioral economics was used to refer to these
as an axiomatic system, several economists expressed serious economists rather heterogeneous research programs (Sent,
doubts on its normative acceptability and empirical 2004), their efforts did not have much impact on
plausibility (Markowitz, 1952; Allais, 1953; Ellsberg, 1961). mainstream economics, despite the launch of The Journal of
These criticisms, however, were based on introspection and Behavioral Economics in 1972 (continued as The Journal of
casual observations, rather than the rigorous experimental Socio-Economics since 1991) and such publications as Katona
studies. This is only natural because back in the days and Morgan (1980), Gilad and Kaish (1986) (but see
experimental methods were not part of economists toolbox Hosseini, 2003). For this reason, Sent (2004) calls these lines
yet. Instead, early experimental tests of EUT, with small but of research old behavioral economics. (Given contemporary
real monetary incentives, were conducted by the Harvard research such as Altman (2006), perhaps it is more
Behavioral Economics, History of 445
appropriate to call it heterodox rather than old behavioral transitivity (as their responses suggested they prefer A to B,
economics.) and B to A at the same time), but the problem was deeper
In retrospect, one reason why old behavioral economics than that since it challenged the procedural invariance principle,
never caught on in the mainstream is that it started from the a fundamental assumption of rational choice that preferences
dismissal of the main methodological tenets of mainstream over an identical set of alternatives should not change
economics, such as positivism, deductivism, static equilibrium depending on how you measure them (e.g., letting subjects
analysis, and optimizing models of economic agency (see rate, choose between, or state reserve prices for options). This
Hosseini, 2003: 394). In contrast, as we will see below, new result was replicated in a eld experiment using real gamblers
behavioral economics has its deep root in BDR, which exploi- incentivized with high-stake money in the Four Sisters Casino
ted maximization models such as EUT as experimental in Las Vegas (Lichtenstein and Slovic, 1973).
paradigms. Preference reversals caught economists attention: two Cal-
tech experimental economists challenged this result, with an
explicit attempt to make the phenomenon go away, only to nd
Behavioral Decision Research it persisted (Grether and Plott, 1979). This paper was published
in The American Economic Review, stimulating economists to
Ward Edwards was among the rst psychologists to notice the produce alternative models to EUT that abandon or modify
relevance of EUT for psychology. He introduced it to psycholo- axiom(s) of EUT. In contrast, Slovic and other behavioral
gists as behavioral decision theory (Edwards, 1954, 1961; Edwards decision researchers proposed procedural models in which
et al., 1963), a rational model of individual probability judg- preferences are constructed in the process of decision-making
ment (subjective Bayesianism) and choice under risk. Edwards, (see articles collected in Section III of Lichtenstein and Slovic,
the son of an economist, studied psychology at Harvard under 2006).
the inuence of Mosteller, who introduced Edwards to EUT
(Phillips and von Winterfeldt, 2007). In 1958, Edwards moved
Framing Effects and Prospect Theory
to the psychology department at the University of Michigan, Ann
Arbor, a then-rapidly expanding research center in mathematical Another series of serious challenges to EUT came from a team of
psychology and decision-making (see Heukelom, 2010). But it Israeli-American psychologists Amos Tversky (193796) and
was the following younger generation, including his former Daniel Kahneman (1934 to present). Tversky completed his
students at Michigan, who developed a subeld in cognitive PhD at Michigan in 1965 under the supervision of Clyde
psychology called BDR, by demonstrating systematic Coombs (191288) and Edwards. Tverskys early research was
violations of the predictions of EUT in a series of experiments, on both the representational theory of measurement in
and by proposing alternative models of individual judgment mathematical psychology and empirical investigation into
and decision-making. Mainstream economic rational choice subjective EUT (Heukelom, 2009: 48). In the late 1960s,
models such as EUT were crucial for the development of BDR, Tversky went back to Israel to teach at Hebrew University,
since these models provided clear and crisp predictions to be where Daniel Kahneman had been establishing himself as
experimentally explored (Sent, 2004; Angner and Loewenstein, a leading researcher in the eld of mental effort. Tverskys
2012); the deviations from the predictions could then be faith in subjective Bayesianism was severely shaken by
exploited to develop alternative models. In particular, two conversations with Kahneman (Kahneman, 2003). The rst
developments in BDR are important for the rise of new series of their collaborative work thus studied individual
behavioral economics. probability judgment under uncertainty; how individuals use
mental shortcuts called heuristics such as representativeness,
availability, and anchoring and adjustment; and how these
Preference Reversals and the Construction of Preferences
heuristics lead to biases, i.e., deviations from the subjective
One of the rst systematic violations of EUT was demonstrated Bayesian model, part of subjective EUT. This research
by Sarah Lichtenstein (1933 to present) and Paul Slovic (1938 program, known as heuristics and biases, was launched with
to present), Edwardss former students, then working at the their rst collaborative paper (Tversky and Kahneman, 1971),
Oregon Research Institute. They conducted a series of experi- and further developed in their Science paper (Tversky and
ments on peoples risk assessments of hypothetical gambling, Kahneman, 1974) and other papers collected in Kahneman
and discovered a serious anomaly for EUT called preference et al. (1982) and Gilovich et al. (2002).
reversal (Lichtenstein and Slovic, 1971; see also Lindman, Another, perhaps even more important program by Tversky
1971), reported essentially the same result). Preference and Kahneman comprises a series of experiments that
reversal is a phenomenon in which the decision-makers pref- demonstrated framing effects (Tversky and Kahneman, 1981,
erence over a pair of lotteries seems to be ipped depending on 1986), and Prospect Theory (Kahneman and Tversky, 1979) as
the method of preference elicitation. For example, when asked an alternative to EUT (other important papers are collected in
to choose one bet from two, many subjects in Lichtenstein and Kahneman and Tversky, 2000). Broadly speaking, framing
Slovics experiments chose a low-payoff, high-probability bet effects refer to another type of preference reversals, in which an
(the so-called P bet, e.g., 35/36 chance of winning $4) over individuals preference over an identical set of alternatives
a high-payoff, low-probability bet ($ bet, e.g., 11/36 chance seems to be ipped depending on how they are described, in
of winning $16); but when asked to state how much they particular as a gain or loss. Framing effects are as serious an
were willing to pay, the subjects priced the $ bet higher than anomaly to EUT as Lichtenstein and Slovics preference
the P bet. The subjects seemed to have violated the axiom of reversals, because they challenged another invariance principle
446 Behavioral Economics, History of
in rational choice called the descriptive invariance, which states who recalls that That was the year that behavioral
that the agents preferences over an extensionally identical set economics began (Poundstone, 2010: chapter 17). Thaler
of alternatives should not be affected by how they are inten- also contributed to the dissemination of empirical ndings
sionally described. An innovation of Prospect Theory con- challenging economic models of choice, and helped
sisted in its introduction of the concept of reference points to mainstream economists to see the relevance of these results,
explain framing effects and other related anomalies within the through publishing, in collaboration with psychologists and
framework of utility theory. One of the central ideas of Prospect economists, Anomalies columns in the Journal of Economic
Theory is that an individual evaluates gains and losses relative Perspectives, between 1987 and 1991 (later collected in
to a certain reference point, not absolute quantities, an Thaler, 1992), and 19952001 (see Heukelom, 2012: fn. 16).
application of psychophysics to the perception of money and Two private foundations, the Sloan Foundation and Russell
other goods. Different frames with different reference points Sage Foundation, also played a key role in developing behav-
shift the perception of alternatives as a gain or loss, and affect ioral economics as a thriving subeld of economics, through
individuals choice. With the assumptions that people are nancially supporting the behavioral economics program
risk-averse toward unlikely loss and likely gain, and (198492), including projects such as nonresidential working
risk-seeking toward likely loss and unlikely gain, Prospect groups, the visiting researchers program, and the Russell Sage
Theory explained not only framing effects but also other Foundation Behavioral Economics Books Series (Heukelom,
early problems such as Allaiss paradox, and peoples 2012). Eric Wanner (1942 to present), a former Harvard
simultaneous purchasing of lotteries and insurances that had cognitive psychologist, who had a clear goal to apply cognitive
been discussed earlier by Friedman and Savage (1952) and science to economics, played a pivotal role as a director of the
Markowitz (1952). (For a critical assessment of Prospect behavioral economics program at both foundations. Wanner
Theory and related models of risky choice, see Friedman involved Tversky, Kahneman, and Thaler from early on at the
et al. (2014).) preparatory stage of the program. Although Wanner initially
Tversky and Kahnemans 1979 Econometrica paper understood the program as a development of Simons
(Kahneman (2003) recalls: The choice of venue turned out to behavioral economics that was highly critical about the
be important; the identical paper, published in Psychological mainstream neoclassical economics, he quickly adopted
Review, would likely have had little impact on economics. But several strategies to bring new behavioral economics to the
our decision was not guided by a wish to inuence economics. mainstream. For example, he emphasized applications of
Econometrica just happened to be the journal where the best behavioral insights to the study of economically important
papers on decision-making to date had been published, and domains such as nancial markets. Wanner also solicited
we were aspiring to be in that company.) and their 1981 prominent and promising economists for applications,
Science paper were hailed as having altered the intellectual including Kenneth Arrow (1921 to present), Vernon Smith
history of economics; they brought the behavioral (1927 to present), George Akerlof (1940 to present), and
economics research program into the mainstream (Laibson Robert Shiller (1946 to present) (Heukelom, 2012). (Smith,
and Zeckhauser, cited in Angner and Loewenstein, 2012: who shared the 2002 Nobel Prize with Kahneman, however,
662). This reputation of Prospect Theory is due not only to was critical about the direction of the behavioral economics
its empirical success, but also to its unique hybrid nature: on program by the 1990s; his prize was awarded for a distinct
the one hand, it is a psychologically informed cognitive research program called experimental economics.) Simon, one
process model in which alternatives are mentally edited as of Wanners 40 invitees in 1985, criticized Wanners program
gains and losses before choice; on the other, it is presented for taking too seriously the premises of contemporary
as a utility maximization model with a peculiar utility curve, economic methodology that theories (models) come rst and
representing different subjective valuations of likely and empirical work afterward; for Simon, the problem was that
unlikely outcomes in gain and loss domains. Unlike old mainline economists continue to ignore vast bodies of
behavioral economics and other BDR, Prospect Theory relevant evidence in their preferred pursuit of armchair model
demonstrated an appealing, paradigmatic way of building (Simons 1986 letter to Wanner cited in Heukelom
incorporating insights from cognitive psychology into (2012)). Wanner and his advisors, however, seem to have
economic models of choice. been aware that a key to the success of behavioral economics
was to accommodate psychological ndings without giving up
economists way of model building.
New Behavioral Economics
The success of Prospect Theory encouraged a number of young The Second-Wave Behavioral Economics
economists to challenge the standard models of rational
choice. In Toward a Positive Theory of Consumer Choice (1980), Matthew Rabin (2002: 658) observed the rise of second-wave
for example, Richard Thaler (1945 to present) discussed, behavioral economics, which moves beyond pointing out
drawing on Tversky and Kahnemans work, various aspects of problems with current economic assumptions, and even
consumer behavior (e.g., underweighting of opportunity costs, beyond articulating alternatives, and on to the task of
failure to ignore sunk costs, regret, and self-control) that systematically and formally exploring the alternatives with
would become central themes in behavioral economics. much the same sensibility and mostly the same methods that
Thaler spent the 198485 academic year visiting the economists are familiar with. As examples, he mentions the
University of British Columbia to work with Kahneman, models of time preferences and social preferences. (In the
Behavioral Economics, History of 447
domain of risk preferences, Tversky and Kahnemans (1992) Modeling Prosocial Preferences
Cumulative Prospect Theory can be seen as a second-wave
Another growing domain of research in behavioral economics
upgrade of their original Prospect Theory.) In the following
is the study of prosocial behavior. Although the default
two subsections, I illustrate these models in turn, and in the
assumption in the theory of public goods since Samuelson
last subsection I briey discuss recent criticisms of these
(1954) had been selsh individuals, viz., that individuals
second-wave models.
care only about self-interest narrowly dened in terms of own
material gains and losses, the eld evidence such as successful
Modeling Dynamically Inconsistent Preferences voluntary provision of public goods and charitable giving
Since important economic behavior such as saving concerns prompted economists to propose alternative models of
consumption that are to be made over an extended period of nonselsh preferences that better explain the observations
time, economic theory needs to explicitly model how (e.g., Becker, 1974; Sugden, 1984). Experimental economists
consumers value delayed as well as immediate consumptions. and psychologists have also tested since 1980s so many
Paul Samuelson (19152009) proposed the discounted utility different variations of prisoners dilemma and public goods
model (DUM), which had become the standard model of time games that there is now substantial body of evidence against
discounting (Samuelson, 1937). One of the fundamental the selshness assumption (see Ledyard, 1995; Chaudhuri,
assumptions of DUM is that [d]uring any specied period of 2011).
time, the individual behaves so as to maximie the sum of all However, the business of modeling prosocial preferences
future utilities, they being reduced to comparable magnitudes boomed with the inventions of other games from which one can
by suitable time discounting (p. 156). As a suitable time- more straightforwardly infer players beliefs and preferences. The
discounting function, Samuelson proposed, without any ultimatum game (Gth et al., 1982) is a game in which one player
commitment to its empirical or normative plausibility, the (the Proposer) makes a take-it-or-leave-it offer, as a division of
following exponentially declining discount function: a sum of money between herself and another player. If the
second player (the Responder) accepts the division, then both
d t dt [1] players earn the specied amounts. If the Responder rejects it,
where 0 < d < 1. An exponential discount function is char- they both get nothing. The standard prediction (rational play
acterized by a constant discount rate for all future events. Thaler plus selsh preference) is that the Proposer will offer
(1981), however, using a survey method, showed that the a minimum divisible sum of the money, which will be
per-period discount factor d declined over time. Later studies accepted by the Responder: for the Responder, any positive
have conrmed this result (see Frederick et al., 2002, for sum is better than zero (money maximization); since the
a review). Intuitively put, this is because people value the Proposer knows this, she proposes the smallest amount to
present and future very differently. People obviously value maximize her own money. Evidence from experiments shows
present consumption (at time t) more than future that Proposers offer on average 3040% of the money (modal
consumption at t 1, but an exponential discount function and median offers are 4050%); and Responders reject small
suggests that the discount rate between t and t 1 is the same offers below 20% about half the time. These results clearly
as that between t 1 and t 2. But since the former case is falsify the standard prediction. Even in the game in which the
a comparison between the present event and a future one, Responder has no choice but to accept the offer (the dictator
while the latter between two future events, the former should game, Kahneman et al. (1986)), the Dictator offers on average
show more pronounced discounting. To capture this feature about 20% of the sum (see Camerer, 2003).
of time discounting, Laibson (1997) adopted a quasi- Models of social preferences try to accommodate the data
hyperbolic discount function, which had been used in across these experimental games, as well as prisoners dilemma
a model of intergenerational altruism by Phelps and Pollak and public goods games. Rabin (1993), employing psycholog-
(1968): ical game theory, proposed a model of reciprocal fairness, where
one player matches anothers intention, which is inferred
d t bdt [2] from the payoff structure of the game. For example,
a responder in an ultimatum game may act mean (reject) if
where 0 < d < 1, and 0 < b < 1. Hyperbolic discount functions
she thinks the proposer to be mean for offering, say 20%,
imply discount rates that decline as the discounted event is
because he could have offered her 40%, if not 50%. Fehr and
moved further away in time, capturing familiar problems of
Schmidt (1999) offered another model of inequality aversion, in
impulsive behavior and procrastination. Note that hyperbolic
which players have a preference for egalitarian distribution of
discounting generalizes the standard assumption of expo-
the payoffs. For example, an inequality-averse player may give
nential discounting, i.e., (2) reduces to (1) if b 1, while
a substantial portion of the pie to the second player in
retaining Samuelsons assumption about the existence of
a dictator game.
a time-additive utility function. Laibson (1997) adopted
a discrete, rather than continuous, version of a hyperbolic
discount function (hence the quasi qualication), in order to
Recent Criticisms of the Second-Wave Models
[mimic] the qualitative property of the hyperbolic discount
function, while maintaining most of the analytical tractability In recent years, these models of second-wave behavioral
of the exponential discount function (p. 450). This is the economics attracted mainly two types of methodological
kind of sensibility and the methods that economists are criticism. The rst concerns its single-minded modication of
familiar with. functional forms instead of explicitly modeling plausible
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