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Project Appraisal of A Power Plant
Project Appraisal of A Power Plant
Prof. B.K.Chadha
Submitted by
Nitika Takkar 09BS0001473
Rishabh Hingar 09BS0001902
Table of Contents
Executive Summary................................................................................3
Opportunity Analysis.............................................................................6
Market & Demand Analysis..................................................................9
Generation.................................................Error! Bookmark not defined.
Analysis..................................................................................................13
S t r e n g t h s ............................................................................................................16
O p p o r t u n i t i e s ....................................................................................................16
T h r e a t s ................................................................................................................16
Technical Analysis................................................................................17
Environmental Analysis.......................................................................22
Social Cost Benefit Analysis.................................................................24
STRUCTURING OF THE PROJECT...............................................28
Financial Projection..............................................................................35
Financial Projection
Executive Summary
This project aims to set up a Thermal Power Project. This is a coal based Thermal Power Plant.
In the first Phase our production target will be 250 mw. We will supply the electricity for the
house hold and Commercial use.
Location: - (Kerala)
Input
Process
Thermal energy is derived from Boilers by burning Coal and the steam produced in Boilers is led
to rotate Steam Turbines, which in turn act as the prime movers of Alternators for generating
Electrical Power.
Output
As the Steam releases heat energy to turn the turbine, its temperature drops. To reuse water used
in Generating Power, the Steam is condensed back into water. To condense the steam, it is
discharged into a vacuum and passed over cooling water in tubes.
Funding
• We will take Long Term as well as short term loan from Financial Institution.
• 100 crore will be self capital.
• We will introduce our IPO in Indian stock market.
Time Frame
• The process of hiring the players will start by the end of year 2014.
• The Main factory will be ready by September-October 2017.
• The production will be started in the January, 2018.
Phase I – This phase helps to evaluate, understand and identify the need to set up Thermal power
project. It will take almost 6-8 month to develop a clear idea.
Phase II – In this phase a layout will be prepare to where form the funding will come for the
project. And things have to be done for the project
➢ Like,
➢ Selection of location for Power Project- 6-8 month
➢ Selection of lands - 8-12month.
➢ Selection of vendor - 4-5 month
Phase III: according to the plan made in Phase II the thing will be implemented. In this phase
important things have to done like,
➢ Building the Administrative offices at the suitable location -8-12 months
➢ Hiring of trained employee-4-5 months
➢ Purchasing office equipments and fixed assets – 5-6 month.
Phase IV – In this phase it will be observed that any necessary changes will have to be done
form the initial plan. Experts in this phase will focus on the progress of work, with the time and
cost involve with it. There will be definite some changes in the macro-economic factors while
implementing the project. For that the experts who are implementing the project will have to take
corrective action to mitigate that kind of risk, which can have a significant effect on the project.
To meet the soaring power deficit in the country the government has changed its strategy and
have announced 14 coal-based ultra-mega power projects (UMPPs), with a capacity of 4,000mw
each. As of now, the government has allotted four projects — three to Reliance Power and one to
Tata Power. Three other power projects are coming up for bidding in two months.
With the completion of civil nuclear deal with the US, investment is likely to pick up even more
in coming 1-2 years with a lot of money going into nuclear power plant construction and other
equipment manufacturing.
Current Scenario
Indian economy has recovered rapidly from the aftermaths of global economic crisis that
surfaced in the second half of 2008. The newly elected UPA government has put a great
emphasis on infrastructure development to take the economy back to the high growth trajectory
witnessed in the pre-crisis period. To achieve this, infrastructure is being given top priority in the
policy-making and along with roads and highways, power generation is one of the key areas
where government is committed to substantially improve its performance. As a result, the
government has taken a number of policy initiatives aimed at attracting greater private
investment and things are looking to move into the right direction.
Market & Demand Analysis
Indian Power Sector Outlook
Power sector has been an underperformer in terms of capacity addition over last few years.
Compared with an average growth of GDP by over 9% in last four years, electricity generation
has increased by 4% only. However, in order to maintain a healthy growth rate of economy, the
pace of power generation will have to be increased in the country.
As such, the UPA government has given high priority to the power sector and has started an
ambitious plan of taking power to all areas of country by 2012. Although the capacity addition
target of 78,000mw over the 11th Five Year Plan looks unachievable now, with renewed
emphasis on the sector, the government may still be able to achieve close to 60,000 mw of new
capacity, which will generate tremendous opportunities for power generation as well as
transmission companies.
There are also vast opportunities in the nuclear power segment. Even as the operation of nuclear
energy plants remain in the hands of government for now, private companies have a big role to
play in construction of power plans as well as supply of many components there of. Overall, the
power sector provides huge opportunities in near term.
Capacity generation however continues to remain lacklustre. In the fiscal 2008-09, the
government had a target of adding 11061 mw of new capacity against which it could manage
only 3453 mw of capacity addition, a shortfall of whooping 68.7%. In the present fiscal,
capacity addition target till the month of October was set at 14507 mw, of which only 5767 mw
has been achieved, reflecting an achievement of nearly 40% only.
The government has said recently that the continuous delays in power projects was primarily
due to poor domestic capacity of producing electrical components which forced the project
directors to depend on large imports marred with chronic delays. The Ministry of power has
started a program to double the capacity of electrical components manufacturing in the country
which should help improve the degree of target achievement going forward.
Demand-supply deficit declines
Average deficit in electricity demand and supply that has been increasing over the last few
fiscals has started to come in the current fiscal. During 2008-09, average power deficit rose to
11.1% from 9.61% in the previous fiscal However, the performance has improved in the current
fiscal with average deficit coming down to 9.5% in the first eight months of FY10.
Peak deficit has already been declining over last few fiscals owing to improved management
and increased inter-regional power exchange. During the FY 2007-08, about 43,000 mega units
of inter-regional energy transfer was facilitated--an increase of about 13% compared to the
previous year (about 38,000 mu).
Recent Policy Initiatives
Modifications to Mega Power Plant Policy
The Union Cabinet on October 1, 2009 approved modifications in the existing Mega Power
Policy that was introduced in 1995 for providing impetus to development of large size power
projects in the country. As per the modifications:
(i) The existing condition of privatization of distribution by power purchasing states to be
replaced by the condition that power purchasing states shall undertake to carry out distribution
reforms as laid down by the Ministry of Power.
(ii) The condition of inter-state sale of power for getting mega power status to be removed.
(iii) The present dispensation of 15 percent price preference available to the domestic bidders in
case of cost plus projects of PSUs to continue. However, the price preference will not apply to
tariff based competitively bid projects of PSUs.
(iv) The benefits of Mega Power Policy will also be extended to supercritical projects to be
awarded through ICB with the mandatory condition of setting up indigenous manufacturing
facility provided they meet the eligibility criteria.
(v) All other benefits under Mega Power Policy available to Greenfield projects would also be
available to expansion unit(s) (brownfield projects) even if the total capacity of expansion
unit(s) is less than the threshold qualifying capacity, provided the size of the unit(s) is not less
than that provided in the earlier phase of the project granted mega power project certificate.
All of these are welcome changes and will help the private investors in a number of ways. The
condition that power purchasing states shall undertake to carry out distribution reforms is a
positive change as along with easing the norm for seeking a mega power project status, it would
also expedite distribution reforms. Removing the condition of inter-state sale of power is
also encouraging development as earlier only the power plants selling electricity on a long-term
basis to two or more states were eligible for seeking a mega power project status. Given the
significant demand for power across all states, mandatorily selling power inter-state for the tax
incentives was anyway an obsolete requirement.
The benefits of Mega Power Policy to be extended to projects based on supercritical technology is also a
very positive move as it would provide a thrust for shifting on to clean coal technologies that minimize
carbon foot prints. Finally, the move to extend the incentives under the Mega Power Policy to brownfield
expansions by existing mega power projects would significantly reduce the tax costs on capacity
expansions for existing power projects and therefore would boost massive capacity expansions through
brownfield expansion.
Analysis
Trend analysis
The term "trend analysis" refers to the analysis of data that exhibits an ongoing upward or
downward pattern that is not due to seasonality or random noise. Analysing trends is useful in
detecting patterns that could lead to future quality problems, and in forecasting future demand
periods.
In project management trend analysis is a mathematical technique that uses historical results to
predict future outcome. This is achieved by tracking variances in cost and schedule performance.
In this context, it is a project management quality control tool.
The trend analysis of the Industry is done here by two methods.
➢ Exponential Trend Analysis
➢ Moving Average Method
The factor considered by us for the Trend analysis is the power generation over the period of
years.
India's power generation has grown with nominal rate at 0.65% in December 2008 compared
with 3.90% increased in December 2007. Thermal, hydro and nuclear are three major source of
power generation. Thermal power generation recorded positive growth at 3.25% in December
2008 however hydro and nuclear were recorded negative growth rate at 12.41% and 21.62%
respectively in December 2008 compared with December 2007.
Trend in Power Generation in India
Power Generation in
in billion KWH
India in billion KWH
Trend Analysis
Trend Analysis
Gross Energy (Exponential)
Year (Moving Average
Generated (A) {F1=F0+0.2*(A0-
Method)
F0)}
1980 – 81 129.2 129.2 129.20
1981 – 82 131.1 129.2 131.10
1982 – 83 140.3 129.58 140.30
1983 – 84 151 131.72 133.53
1984 – 85 169.1 135.58 140.80
1985 – 86 183.4 142.28 153.47
1986 – 87 201.3 150.51 167.83
1987 – 88 219 160.67 184.60
1988 – 89 241.3 172.33 201.23
1989 – 90 268.4 186.13 220.53
1990 – 91 289.4 202.58 242.90
1991 – 92 315.6 219.94 266.37
1992 – 93 332.7 239.08 291.13
1993 – 94 356.3 257.8 312.57
1994 – 95 385.5 277.5 334.87
1995 – 96 418.1 299.1 358.17
1996 – 97 436.7 322.9 386.63
1997 – 98 465.8 345.66 413.43
1998 – 99 496.9 369.69 440.20
1999 – 00 532.2 395.13 466.47
2000 – 01 554.5 422.54 498.30
2001 – 02 579.1 448.94 527.87
2002 – 03 596.5 474.97 555.27
2003 – 04 633.3 499.27 576.70
2004 – 05 665.8 526.08 602.97
2005 – 06 672.4 554.02 631.87
2006 – 07 697.4 577.7 657.17
2007 – 08 704.47 601.64 678.53
2008 – 09 744.34 622.21 691.42
2009 – 10 projected 646.63 715.40
Output of Trend Analysis – Exponential method (1980 – 2009)
Interpretation:
The output (Fig.7) shows that there has been gradual and continuous growth
in power generation in India, the trend analysis using exponential method
also shows the similar curve in growth, showing the projected power
generation for the year 2008-09 in the growing pattern.
SWOT Analysis
SWOT analysis is a tool for auditing an organization and its environment. The aim of any
SWOT analysis is to identify the key internal and external factors that are important to achieving
the objective. SWOT analysis groups key pieces of information into two main categories:
➢ Internal factors – The strengths and weaknesses internal to the organization.
➢ External factors – The opportunities and threats presented by the external environment to
the organization
Strengths
• Well established and vast T & D network.
• Non conventional energy resource base
• Regulatory mechanism for tariff setting established
• Emergence of strong and globally comparable central utilities:
Weaknesses
• Persisting shortages
• Power theft
• Pitfalls in billing and revenue collection
Opportunities
• Natural sources
• Use of digital technology
• Rural electrification
• Untapped hydro power in northeast
Threats
• High AT & C losses (Aggregate technical and commercial losses)
• Waste generation leading to environmental damage
Technical Analysis
In general, both the construction and operation of a power plant requires the existence of some
conditions such as water resources and stable soil type. Still there are other criteria that although
not required for the power plant, yet should be considered because they will be affected by either
the construction or operation of the plants such as population centers and protected areas. The
following list lists most of the factors that should be studied and considered in selection of proper
sites for power plant construction:
Gas pipe network: Vicinity to the gas pipes reduces the required expenses.
Power transmission network: To transfer the generated electricity to the consumers, the
plant should be connected to electrical transmission system Therefore closeness to a
electric network can play a roll.
Geology and soil type: The power plant should be built in an area with soil and rock
layers that could stand the weight and vibrations of the power plant.
Earthquake and geological faults: Even weak and small earthquakes can damage many
parts of a power plant intensively. Therefore the site should be away enough from the
faults and previous earthquake areas.
Availability of laborHuman resource is very important factor and cheap manpower helps
in reducing the cost of production.
Topography: It has been proved that high elevation has a negative effect on production
efficiency of gas turbines. Therefore, the parameters of elevation and slope should be
considered.
Rivers and floodways: The power plant should be at a reasonable distance from
permanent and seasonal rivers and floodways.
Water resources: For the construction and operating of power plant different volumes of
water are required. This could be supplied from either rivers or underground water
resources. Therefore having enough water supplies in defined vicinity can be a factor in
the selection of the site.
Population centers: For the same reasons as above, the site should have an enough
distance from population centers.
Need for power: In general, the site should be near the areas that there is more need for
generation capacity, to decrease the amount of power loss and transmission expenses.
Climate: Parameters such as temperature, humidity, wind direction and speed affect the
productivity of a power plant and always should be taken into account.
Area size: Before any other consideration, the minimum area size required for the
construction of power plant should be defined.
Distance from airports: Usually, a power plant has high towers and chimneys and large
volumes of gas. Consequently for security reasons, they should be away from airports.
Archeological and historical sites: Usually historical building …are fragile and at same
time very valuable. Therefore the vibration caused by power plant can damage them, and
a defined distance should be considered.
Raw Material procurement
Plant uses coal for generation of electricity. Its daily requirement of coal is about 10476 metric
tons, delivered from ernakulam Coalfields, Idukki Coalfields and Kollam Coalfields. The coal
supplied is sampled using a computerized system and sent to the laboratory for testing. This
ensures that properly graded coal is being used.
For a 675 MW thermal power plant, around 598 Ha. Of land will be required for Plant, Raw
Water Storage, Green Belt, Ash Disposal etc. The break up of the land requirement is as follows:
With all possible efforts it is expected that fly ash generated at the thermal power stations shall
be utilized in the areas of cement, road construction, mine filling etc.
Clean coal technologies offer the potential for significant reduction in the environmental
emissions when used for power generation. Several of these systems are not only very effective
in reducing SOx and NOx emissions but, because of their higher efficiencies they also emit
lower amount of CO2 per unit of power produced. CCT's can be used to reduce dependence on
foreign oil and to make use of a wide variety of coal available.
In all Steam Generating Stations, the water used to create steam must be highly purified. This is
important because the steam is forced against the row of blades that rotate the shaft. Steam
constantly hits these metal parts, so even the tiniest impurities will erode the metal blades.
Therefore water is softened, filtered and demineralised until it is as pure as distilled water. Each
Generating Station has a chemical Lab where water purifying process is regularly monitored.
As the Steam releases heat energy to turn the turbine, its temperature drops. To reuse water used
in Generating Power, the Steam is condensed back into water. To condense the steam, it is
discharged into a vacuum and passed over cooling water in tubes.
Transport layout
Distance from harbor: Usually, a power plant needs large volumes of coal. For this
purpose sometimes coal is imported. Therefore keeping this in mind the plant will be
situated in close proximity to a harbor, distance being approx. 5 kms.
To setup entire Transportation network the project cost will be 10 crore rupees.
Organizational Layout
Environmental Analysis
ANTICIPATED ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS & MITIGATION
MEASURES
LAND USE
The proposed thermal power plant (675 MW) shall be installed in around 598 hectares of land at
Uddipi region in Kerala. The land is fully vacant land, free from habitation. The construction
activities are likely to attract a sizeable population. However, this will be only a temporary
change and shall be restricted to construction period. As soon as the construction phase is over,
the land use pattern modified to meet the requirement of construction phase shall be reversed. In
view of the above, no change in land use pattern is envisaged due to construction and operation
of the project.
WATER QUALITY
While developing the water system for the project, utmost care has been taken to maximize the
recycle/ reuse of effluents and minimize effluent quantity. As there will be no discharge of any
effluent outside the plant boundary, there will be no impact on the surface water quality of the
area.
NOISE
The operation of the proposed Thermal Power Plant is expected to generate relatively high and
continuous noise levels especially near Compressor House of Thermal Power Plant. However, all
the machineries will be within the permissible noise limit as per Environment Protection Act.
Operational activities are not expected to cause any undue
disturbances to the people living in the proximate areas outside the plant boundary. Impacts of
noise on workers could be minimized through the adoption of adequate protective measures in
the form of (a) use of personal protective equipment (ear plugs, ear muffs etc.), (b) education and
public awareness, and (c) exposure control through the rotation of work assignments in the
intense noise areas.
ECOLOGY
The surrounding area of the proposed THERMAL POWER PLANT has some vegetation in the
form of village orchards, roadside trees and agriculture. If the gaseous emission is controlled
properly, there will not be significant impact. There will be sufficient plantation of trees at the
plant site. All these measures, if implemented properly will ensure insignificant impact on the
local vegetation from the proposed project and may improve the vegetation scenario of the area.
The runoff from construction area may lead to a short-term increase in suspended solids and
decrease in dissolved oxygen near the discharge point in receiving water body. This may lead to
a temporary decrease in the photosynthetic activity of phyto-planktons, rise in
anaerobic conditions and food chain modification. However, for major part of the year during
construction phase, no detectable impact is expected because water quality will not change
significantly.
About the method: The develop financial institutions of India, probably most of them own by the
central of state govt evaluate all their projects mainly in terms of how much social benefit can
happen through their projects. In this project the method followed by the IDBI to analyze the
SCB will be used to find out the SCB of this project.
The social cost benefit analysis carried out by IDBI is based on three concepts:
BY IDBI Approach
Social Conversion Factor (SCF) or Proportions of Three Components, Tradable (T), labor (L)
and Residual (R)
Particulars Rs (crore)
Tradable value ab Initio 1136.63
Social cost of tradable component 93.72
Social cost of labor component 34.08
Social cost of residual component 31.95
1296.38
Projected annual Profitability statement
Amount (Crs)
Income
Net sales 546.75
Expenditure
Item Financial Basis of Tradeable T L R
Raw material (indigenous)
cost conversion value ab initio 125.091
Raw material 125.091 SCF= 0.8 100.07 - - -
Labor 2.3625
(indigenous)
Labor
Salaries 2.3625 SCF=0.5 1.18 - - 5.0625-
Salaries
Repairs & maintenance5.0625 SCF= 0.8 4.05 - - 0.7425-
Repairs
Fuel & 0.7425 SCF=1/1.5 0.497 - - 0.3105-
maintenance
Depreciation
Fuel T=0.5 - 0.155 0.07 336.9870.07
Other overheads 0.3105 L=0.25 0.7425
R=0.25
Depreciation
Taxable Profit 336.987 - - - - -206.253-
Other 0.7425 SCF=1/1.5 0.497 - - -
overheads
Total 106.29 0.155 0.07 0.07
Particulars Rs (crore)
Tradable value ab Initio 106.29
Social cost of tradable component 0.103
Social cost of labor component 0.035
Social cost of residual component 0.035
106.46
So the project structuring can be define as a multifunctional exercise that selects the best
implementation strategy, sets the scope according to a defined basis, selects the best contracting
strategy, and then plans and schedules all business and project aspects from mobilization through
to ramp-up.
And besides this hierarchical structure of the organization, there are different works allotted to
specialized officers. These works include
➢ Business strategy
➢ Business development
➢ Technology
➢ Research
➢ Finance
➢ Operations
➢ Compliance
➢ Human resources
Each of the above department is headed by a chief officer and has various managers to
perform specialized functions.
Capital structure
It is the way of financing of organization through the different means of debt, equity or the
combination of both.
This project of shopping mall comprises of 50% debt and 50% equity and hence D/E ratio is 1 in
this case.
Now let us see what is the cost of financing debt and equity and this also called as cost of capital.
Cost of capital is the opportunity cost for a particular investment. It is the rate of return that an
individual or organization would otherwise expect to receive, given the same level of risk as the
investment that is chosen. Two terms used in cost of capital are cost of debt and cost of equity. In
basic terms, cost of debt is calculated as the rate of a "risk free" bond with the same term
structure as the investment, added with a default premium. Cost of equity, likewise, can be
counted as a similar rate of return on a risk free investment, with an added premium for the
expected risk.
Cost of debt
The cost of debt is computed by taking the rate on a risk free bond whose duration matches the
term structure of the corporate debt, then adding a default premium. This default premium will
rise as the amount of debt increases (since the risk rises as the amount of debt rises). Since in
most cases debt expense is a deductible expense, the cost of debt is computed as an after tax cost
to make it comparable with the cost of equity (earnings are after-tax as well).
Cost of equity
Cost of equity = Risk free rate of return + Premium expected for risk
The capital asset pricing model (CAPM) is used in finance to determine a theoretically
appropriate price of an asset such as a security. The expected return on equity according to the
capital asset pricing model where the market risk is normally characterized by the β parameter is
given by:
Where:
Rf: The expected risk-free return in that market (government bond yield)
(RM-Rf): The risk premium of market assets over risk free assets.
The model states that investors will expect a return that is the risk-free return plus the security's
sensitivity to market risk times the market risk premium. The risk free rate is taken from the
lowest yielding bonds in the particular market, such as government bonds. The sensitivity to
market risk (β) is unique for each firm and depends on everything from management to its
business and capital structure. This value cannot be known "ex ante" (beforehand), but can be
estimated from ex post (past) returns and past experience with similar firms.
The Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) is used in finance to measure a firm's cost of
capital. The total capital for a firm is the value of its equity (for a firm without outstanding
warrants and options, this is the same as the company's market capitalization) plus the cost of its
debt (the cost of debt should be continually updated as the cost of debt changes as a result of
interest rate changes). Notice that the "equity" in the debt to equity ratio is the market value of all
equity, not the shareholders' equity on the balance sheet. To calculate the firm’s weighted cost of
capital, we must first calculate the costs of the individual financing sources: Cost of Debt Cost of
Preference Capital Cost of Equity Capital. Calculation of WACC is an iterative procedure which
requires estimation of the fair market value of equity capital.
Calculations
Means of Finance
Ke = Rf+β(Rm-Rf)
= 0.200601
Ownership Structuring
To own and operate property, structures (often known today as legal entities) have been created
in many societies throughout history. The concept of ownership has existed for thousands of
years and in all cultures. Over the millennia, however, and across cultures what is considered
eligible to be property and how that property is regarded culturally is very different. Ownership
is the basis for many other concepts that form the foundations of ancient and modern societies
such as money, trade, debt, bankruptcy, the criminality of theft and private vs. public property.
Ownership is the key building block in the development of the capitalist socio-economic system.
Legal advantages or restrictions on various types of structured ownership have existed in many
societies past and present. Cooperatives, corporations, trusts, partnerships, condominium
associations are only some of the many varied types of structured ownership; each type has many
subtypes. To govern how assets are to be used, shared or treated, rules and regulations may be
legally imposed or internally adopted or decreed.
This Thermal power company is a limited company which has its own identity. The company has
its own legal status (like a person). It is separate from its shareholders (its owners). It is legally
formed company, which includes registering the company name, creating a constitution (rules)
for the company and issuing shares. Company also has a separate Inland Revenue number.
The company is administered by Directors, who are not shareholders in the company. All
Directors are legally bound to act in keeping with the relevant legislation and the Company’s
own constitution.
The company profits are taxed at the flat company tax rate of 30%. The advantage of setting up
a limited company to own my investment property is that it’s a separate legal entity, so I can
separate business and my personal assets. This helps protect my personal assets if anything goes
wrong.
In our company depending on internal rules and regulations, certain classes of shares have the
right to receive increases in financial "dividends" while other classes do not. After many years
the increase over time is substantial if the business is profitable. Examples of this are common
shares and preferred shares in private or publicly listed share capital corporations.
Board Structuring
In this project board of directors consists of 10 persons i.e. 1 CEO and 9 Senior Managers and
they will be responsible of every decision regarding the organization. The role of the Board of
Directors is to manage the corporation. This will likely include establishing policies which the
organization will follow, and making major business decisions such as:
Contractual Structuring
This portion will include all the business proposals or parts of the business which I am going to
give on contracts or to which I am going to outsource.
Corporate participants: - I have taken different place for professional corporate offices like
NTPC, Reliance Power, JSW Power and more like this.
Common Facility
There are so many common facilities for the workers and officers are there. These are
15099.75
273.375
33078.38
5535
20.25
2099.2
5
Means of finance