A Timeline to Unemployment: When Will Robots Really

Replace Workers?
Written By Author: Dom Galeon
Editor: Kristin Houser
Website
January 16, 2017

No Definitive Timeframe

As many studies have predicted, we are globally moving toward more automated workplaces.
Indeed, most experts already believe that the rise of automation is inevitable. One popular and
often cited study published in 2013 by Oxford University and the Oxford Martin School predicts, for
instance, that 47 percent of jobs in the United States will be automated in the next 20 years.
Forrester, meanwhile, thinks that about 7 percent of jobs in the U.S. will be automated by 2025.

And the U.S. isnt the only country focused on this trend. A study by the Brookfield Institute for
Innovation + Entrepreneurship predicts that 40 percent of Canadian jobs will be replaced by
machines in just 10 to 20 years. In the U.K., meanwhile, an expected 850,000 jobs will be automated
by 2030. Then theres a report conducted by the International Labor Organization (ILO) that talks
about how 137 million workers in Southeast Asia could lose their jobs in (again) the next 20 years.

All these studies seem to have the same general timeframe for when automation will significantly
disrupt the job market. Two new studies, however, think it wont be that fast.

A study by the McKinsey Global Institute predicts that the transition to a machine-dominated
workplace will happen at a slower, more gradual pace than what others think. In a survey of more
than 2,000 activities across 800 jobs, the study determined which tasks could be automated and
which jobs were ripe for automation. Their conclusion? Only 5 percent of jobs can be entirely
automated with currently demonstrated technology. This position is echoed in a report published
in 2016 by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OCED), which concluded
that only an average of 9 percent of jobs could be automated across its 21-member countries.

This is going to take decades, said James Manyika, author of the first report and director at
McKinsey. How automation affects employment will not be decided simply by what is technically
feasible, which is what technologists tend to focus on. The other factors at play include the
economy, government regulations, and societys attitude toward this new tech. In their estimation,
2055 is the soonest that half of the worlds work activities could be automated.
An Inevitable Future

One thing all these reports agree on is the fact that workplace automation will happen, and in some
cases, it has already begun. Theres Walmart, Amazon Go, a Japanese life insurance firm, and
Barclays, not to mention the boom of self-driving vehicles. The industries that will be experiencing
this job displacement gets more and more varied, everything from factories to office desks. Stifling
this development, clearly, wont be the right move forward.

Ultimately, automation is a good thing, with the potential to benefit the global economy in the long
run, so perhaps rather than focusing on when itll happen, the conversation should center on what
can be done to help those whose jobs will be affected by widespread automation.

In the case of the worlds governments, more involvement via policy-making is key. One policy in
particular thats gaining attention alongside the automation issue is universal basic income (UBI),
with some countries already testing out UBI systems to see if they could help with future
unemployment. Meanwhile, the U.S. government has proposed an increase in education to counter
automation.

Whether automation reaches a tipping point in 2025, 2030, or 2055, we still have time to prepare
and adjust, so continued research like that out of McKinsey and OCED will help illuminate the best
path forward.

References: NY Times, McKinsey Global Institute Report, OCED

https://futurism.com/a-timeline-to-unemployment-when-will-robots-really-replace-workers/