Algae Blooms in Lake Erie:

A GIS Analysis
Calli Morales, Stephanie Gonzalez, Annie (Garim) Lee,
Nancy Herrera, Natalia Lima
13 June 2017
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Abstract

Algae is an important organism to have in a lake ecosystem, but in large amounts, they can form
algae blooms and become dangerous not only to aquatic life, but humans as well. Algae blooms
provide an excessive amount of nutrients to lakes, a process known as hypertrophication. Algae
blooms can only grow in vast amount if there are high levels of nitrogen and phosphorus,
chemicals which are heavily concentrated in fertilizers, animal manure and wastewater. When
levels become too high, algae emit toxins as a mechanism to protect themselves from being eaten
by the environment. In low levels, this can be harmless to a water body the size of Lake Erie,
however as these blooms become more concentrated, serious health issues can arise.

Lake Erie has had a consistent problem with large scale algae blooms for the last 70 years. In the
most recent decade, regulations have been passed to clean the lake - yet the water quality is still
hazardous. Lake Erie provides drinking water to rust belt states and is occasionally still used for
fishing. The toxins released by the copious levels of algae threatens this drinking water supply.
Algae blooms can severely reduce or eliminate oxygen in the water, leading to illness and large
numbers of dead fish. Even at low levels, if humans come into contact with polluted water,
consume tainted shellfish, or drink contaminated water, it can be harmful to humans. Algae
bloom levels of only 10 mg/m3, the water can potentially cause short term health outcomes
including skin irritations and gastrointestinal illness. At levels of 50 mg/m3, the water is
considered extremely toxic and has the potential for more serious illnesses and potential long
term effects.

This paper looks to understand the causation of the toxic algae levels in Lake Erie. It looks to
find areas in lake Erie most affected by toxic levels of algae, identify the basins whose runoff
most contributes to the areas of the lake with the highest consistent concentrations of algae, and
to identify possible attributes of the specified basins.

Introduction

Lake Erie is one of the five Great Lakes of the United States. It is the shallowest and has the
smallest volume of the Great Lakes. The main inflow of the lake is via the Detroit River and the
main outflow of the lake is via the Niagara River.

Many environmental concerns have surrounded Lake Erie. These include overfishing, algae
blooms, and eutrophication. Clean up efforts have been ongoing for the last half century.
However, in recent years, environmental groups from Ohio and Michigan have sued the
Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) claiming not enough effort has been made to clean up
the lake.
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Our research question/problem statement is as follows: what region is the major source pollution
contributing to algae blooms in Lake Erie, and following, what areas should environmental
efforts to clean up the lake be focused on.

Study Area

Lake Erie is a lake located in North America on the border between Canada and the United
States. It is adjacent to Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New York, and Ontario, Canada. Lake
Erie is 25,744.48 km2 (9,940 mi2). Its maximum depth is 64 meters (210 feet). It is the 13th
largest lake globally in terms of surface area at 25,666.78 km2 (9910 mi2). (Figure 1)

Methods

Finding average chlorophyll levels with MODIS

Measuring the concentration of algae through Chlorophyll is cost effective and provides a
reasonable estimate of how much algae is in the water. (MPT 2011) Satellite imagery was
gathered from Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) in order to
visualize the spatial patterns of chlorophyll concentration in Lake Erie. Terra MODIS Level 3
data, measuring chlorophyll-a concentration on a global scale, was focused only on our study
site. The spatial resolution of these images is 4 km. (Terra) Monthly composites of Level 3 data
on Lake Erie were used from a period ranging from January 2011 to December 2016. Some of
these monthly composites lack data due cloudy conditions. These composites were created using
the OCI algorithm. This algorithm uses information from Terra sensor bands at a range of 440-
570 nm, it captures visible blue-green light that has been reflected at the top of the atmosphere in
mg/m-3; it also derives chlorophyll concentration from in situ chlorophyll-a observations.
(Chlorophyll & Remote) This data has been atmospherically corrected for issues such as
reflection from air particles and sun glint. (Remote)

Once these data were acquired, we clipped the monthly global images from the previous 5 years
to the extent of our study area. We attempted to create a model using Model Builder for this step
but we were unable to load more than two global MODIS images, the input data, into arcGIS
without the program crashing. We then used Raster Calculator to select pixels that exceed
50mg/m3 of chlorophyll and 10mg/m3 of chlorophyll. The processes for each varying chlorophyll
level were the same but conducted separately. In using the Raster Calculator, we assigned any
pixel with a value greater than the threshold (either 50 or 10) a value of 1 and any pixel with a
value less than the threshold a value of 0. We used Model Builder to expedite this step (Figure
2). We then used Raster to Polygon to create a shapefile layer and manually deleted the 0 values.
We then combined the resulting shapefiles which contained any pixel that had exceeded the
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specified levels of chlorophyll in any month between January 2011 and December 2016 into a
group layer and applied the appropriate symbology.

We used a second model to standardize the color scheme that shows chlorophyll concentration
from low to high. (Figure 3) In order to standardize the color scheme we created two raster pixel
values and mosaiced them to the clipped versions of the monthly composite data for our site.
This allowed for chlorophyll concentration ranges to be displayed on the same color scale scale
ranging from 0 to 90 mg/m3.

Basin Creation & Stream Network

Multiple USGS 30-meter resolution SRTM DEMs were mosaicked together into a raster. Then
the raster file was aggregated to 90-meter to process faster. Lake cells were extracted from a
raster, and sinks within Z-limit of 70 in an aggregated DEM were filled.

For watershed analysis, we created two models which create basin and stream network vector
file (Figure 20 & 21). A threshold value of 700 was applied to the results of the flow
accumulation in order to create a stream network. Once basin and stream networks were
acquired, we selected basins that physically touches the lake as major basins for our study using
select by location. We overlaid areas that have high concentration of chlorophyll on the
watershed map and selected basins that is 0.7 decimal degree away from the lake as named these
basins as high risk basin possible correlated with algal productivity.

Bathymetry Analysis

Algae tends to proliferate in thin strips along the northern and southern shorelines, at the
Northeastern most tip of the lake, near a small peninsula on midline on the North side, and in the
Southwestern section of the lake (Figure 6). These areas all are areas of low depth - averaging
less than 22 meters deep.

Land Cover Analysis

We retrieved landcover data from the USGS. The data had global coverage and were in a
shapefile format and had 16 different land cover categorizations. We clipped the data to the study
area extent. From there, we selected the basins with streams that contributed water to areas of the
lake with large chlorophyll levels. We used a threshold of 8mg/m3 chlorophyll and conducted the
same steps used in the Finding average chlorophyll levels with MODIS section to find pixels
that averaged over 8mg/m3 of chlorophyll between 2011 and 2016.
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We then ran a selection by location to determine which streams were within 25m of high
chlorophyll levels (which we set to be 8mg/m^3). We considered these selected streams to be
streams whose outflow could contribute to algae blooms. We then ran an overlay analysis to
select basins which contain the selected streams.We determined these basins to be basins whose
runoff could possibly contribute to algae blooms (Figure 5).

We then overlaid the selected basins and clipped the land cover dataset to create a land cover
data for the basins whose bains could contribute to the algae blooms.

Agricultural Attribute Analysis

Agricultural data was obtained through the USDA Census database. This data was based off of
large watershed regions throughout the US. The shapefile had to be obtained separately and had
none of the fertilization data associated with the regions. We manually input the attributes into
the shapefile to create a usable data layer. Once the shapefile was manually joined with fertilizer
attribute data, we used the union tool to combine both our watershed shapefile with the Census
watershed shapefile. Because some of the watershed area did not overlap up with our own
watershed dataset, we clipped the data to the extent of our own basins (Figure 19).

Linking Stream Layer to Chlorophyll Levels

Annual composites of MODIS satellite imagery were also used in this study for the years of 2011
to 2016. The characteristics of the annual composites match that of the monthly composites.
Pixels with a chlorophyll concentration value above 6 mg/m3 for the five years were gathered to
display the common areas in the lake where chlorophyll has been present. These pixels locations
were visually compared to the location of streams made by the watershed analysis.

Results

Monthly composites (Figures 13-18) revealed a spatial pattern regarding chlorophyll

concentration in Lake Erie. During the months of September and May, there is very little
chlorophyll concentration in the Lake. These values are below or near 10 mg/m3. In the months
of June and July we see the chlorophyll concentration presence starting to rise. Through August
and October, chlorophyll concentration can be found at its peak. Chlorophyll concentration
starts to rise above 10 mg/m3 this time of year. The northern and southern portions do have a
high chlorophyll concentration but not to the extent of the east. This pattern is seen in all five
years. Figure shows this pattern. In Appendix A, monthly composites for 2012-2016 can be seen.

Visually comparing stream networks for the lake and the chlorophyll concentration, shows that
there is a correlation between amount of streams and chlorophyll concentration in the water.
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(Figures 7, 9 a-d) The northern and southern portions of the lake has a smaller number of
streams draining into the lake compared to east and west side of the lake. (Figure 9a and 9b) The
east and west are seen to have high chlorophyll concentration, with the west having more
chlorophyll and streams. (Figure 9b and 9d)

Additionally, our basin spatial analysis shows that basins whose runoff coincides with the
location of frequent and/or high concentrations of algae blooms have an average 92.0%
agricultural land cover whereas the total watershed and the basins determined to not be possible
contributors to algae blooms have 78.6% and 69% agricultural land cover respectively. Basins
not contributing to areas with large amounts of algae have almost twice as much deciduous land
cover as well. These basins have on average, 20.6% deciduous broadleaf forest land coverage.
Basins correlated with algae presence have only 1.1% deciduous broadleaf forest land coverage.
Overall, basins correlated with areas of larger and toxic levels of algae have a larger amount of
agricultural crop land and less deciduous forest than basins which are not correlated with high
levels of algae. These results are illustrated in Figure 4.

Discussion

Monthly composites also reveal that a value under 10 mg/m3 is the natural, non-anthropogenic,
amount chlorophyll concentration in the lake. When this concentration rises above of 10 mg/m3
we attribute it to heavy rainfall and runoff events occurring in the watershed. These events occur
in June and July but do not remarkably affect the health of the lake until August. The runoff
contains phosphorus nutrients from agriculture. Algal blooms are caused by this excess of
nutrients. During the summer months, water temperature and solar radiation create ideal
conditions for algal blooms to occur.

The streams may not reflect the actual streams located in the Lake Erie watersheds. Nonetheless
the annual composites reveal that the streams based on the watershed analysis allow us to see the
areas that can lead to runoff given the digital elevation model. The more streams shown through
the watershed analysis, the greater the likelihood that more drainage occurs into the lake. The
west side of Lake Erie has many streams as well as the greatest surface area for algae blooms
extending farther from the coast.

Based on our study, we believe algae blooms are correlated with agricultural runoff from basins
on the westernmost area of the lake. Further, these basins are the ones with the largest percentage
of farms using fertilizer. We believe nitrates from the fertilizer enter into the lake and this can
provide nutrients necessary for the algae to proliferate. We believe this problem is exacerbated
by lake bathymetry; the shallow areas allow the lake to warm and receive sunlight in a way that
is beneficial for algae growth.
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Moving Forward

Further research and analysis should be conducted on the subject of the exact causation of toxic
algae blooms in Lake Erie. Further analysis could be conducted in the following areas:

The MODIS images we used in our study were of 0.5 km resolution. With higher resolution
images we could better understand the exact location of the algae blooms and the basins and
streams that are correlated with them. We did not use Landsat because we were unable to acquire
a full, cloudless image of the lake during a multiple year span.

In addition to this, because our remote sensing system only aquires information on the surface of
the lake, we were unable to accurately measure whether a large sum of algae particles had sunk
into the lake. Other research we had come across suggested that wind in the region could have
had an effect on the position of the algal blooms within the lake. This could have also affected
the amount of mixing which went on in the lake.

Lastly, from better understanding the proper weather conditions, we would have gotten a better
understanding of the levels of growth of the algae. Because algae grows through the process of
photosynthesis, it requires light. From better understanding the patterns of precipitation and
cloud cover, this may have been a cause for the blooms location and growth during summer
months.
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Figures

Figure 1: Reference map of study area

Figure 2: Model Builder used to extract threshold values from MODIS clipped images

Figure 3: Model builder to standardize color scheme regarding chlorophyll concentration and
levels in each lake image
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Figure 4: Percentage of area of total watershed, basins correlated with high chlorophyll levels,
and basins not correlated with high chlorophyll levels covered by specified land cover type

Figure 5: Selected Basins which overlap with streams within 25km of areas with Algae Levels
averaging greater than 8mg/m3 between 2011 and 2016
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Figure 6: Lake Erie bathymetry with respect to average chlorophyll levels between 2011 and
2016
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Figure 7: Basins and streams of the Lake Erie watershed

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Figure 8: Basins within 10km of average algae concentrations greater than 6mg/m3

Figure 9: Stream networks in relation to areas of consistent algae blooms; points of interest
denote areas/pixels with especially toxic levels of algae
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Figure 9 (a-d):

Zoomed areas of algeal interest

a) b)

c) d)
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Figure 10: Average chlorophyll concentration in mg/m3 between January 2011 and December
2016

Figure 11: Areas of Lake Erie/pixels that have exceeded 50mg/m3 between January 2011 and
December 2016
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Figure 12: Areas of Lake Erie/pixels that have exceeded 10mg/m3 between January 2011 and
December 2016

Figure 19: Fertilizer concentration by basin in the lake Erie watershed measured in tonnes of
fertilizer per thousand acre
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Figure 20: Model Builder used to create stream order layer

Figure 21: Model Builder used to construct basin polygon layer

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References

"0.5 Km MODIS-based Global Land Cover Climatology." The USGS Land Cover Institute
(LCI). United States Geological Survey (USGS), Nov. 2016. Web. 05 June 2017.
EPA. Health Effects Support Document for Cyanobacterial Toxin Anatoxin-A. United States
Environmental Protection Agency, June 2017. Web. 05 June 2017.
Falconer, Ian. Safe Levels and Practices - Algae Concentrations. World Health Organization.
June 02, 2017.
Lake Erie. EPA. United States Environmental Protection Agency, 27 Apr. 2017. Web. 02 June
2017.
"Lake Erie Bathymetry." Data Basin. National Geophysical Data Center; Great Lakes
Environmental Research Laboratory, 08 Nov. 2006.
Web. 05 June 2017. Great Lakes Information Network.
MPT. Algae and Chlorophyll a. maryland Public Television. 05 June 2017.
NASA. "Terra MODIS Chlorophyll Concentration, OCI Algorithm." Ocean Color. 05 June 2017.
<https://oceancolor.gsfc.nasa.gov/cgi/l3>."NRCS Official Snapshot For The Current Fiscal
Year." Natural Resources Conservation Service. United States Department of Agriculture,
n.d. Web. 05 June 2017.
Vidyasagar, Aparna. "What Are Algae?" LiveScience. Purch, 04 June 2016. Web. 03 June 2017.
"What Are Algae." Algae Basics - All About Algae. Algae Biomass Organization, n.d. Web. 05
June 2017.
USDA. QuickStats. United States Department of Agriculture. Web. 05 June 2017.