MR Gelal

FPM
THE S-CURVE
S-Curve is one of the popular planning tools. S-Curve graphically plots some measure of
cumulative progress on the vertical axis against time on the horizontal axis. Progress can be
measured in terms of money expended, quantity surveys of work in place, man-hours
expended, or any other measure which makes sense. Any of these can be expressed either in
terms of actual units (Rupees, Cubic meter, etc.) or as a percentage of the estimated total
quantity to be measured.
Why does it look Like S?
On most projects, expenditures of resources per unit time tend to start slowly, build up to a
peak, and then taper off near the end. This causes the slope of the cumulative curve to start
low, increase during the middle, and then flatten near the top. After signing a construction
contract, the contractodr has to prepare himself for the work. Also minor works are started
which takes time to gain momentum. After the period of slow start, when the contractor
mobilizes him fully, the rate of progress accelerates remarkably and for quite sufficient
duration, the rate of progress is constant. Finally, a falling off of this rate of progress is
marked when the project is towards completion. Contractor reduces his manpower
substantially and activities are limited to finishing, testing and commissioning. By this, for
any project, if we draw on a graph, we find a figure having S- shape.

S- Curve
Cumulative Cost

Time

Traditionally, the curve was being used to plan the budget and cash flow only. It was drawn
for cumulative schedule of cost on vertical scale and time duration on horizontal scale. But
now, we have started using it not only to plan overall cost of the project, but also to plan
man-hours, physical percentage completion, individual items of work and so on. In that case

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FPM
the vertical scale represents man- hours, physical percentage of work completed etc. and
horizontal scale always represents the time.

Example:
An airport construction project has to move 10,000 cubic meter of earth within 10 days. The
daily excavation quantities are as shown in figure 1 below. Summing all the daily excavation
quantities through any particular day gives the cumulative quantity by that day. For example,
by the end of day 5, the cumulative quantity is the sum of excavation on days 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5.
That is = 200 + 600 + 1000 + 1400 + 1800 = 5000

The shape of S- Curve can be seen by connecting the points at the end of each days
cumulative production as shown in figure 2.

Daily Production
2000 1800 1800
1800
Daily Production (Cum.)

1600 1400 1400

1400
1200 1000 1000
1000
800 600 600
600
400 200 200
200 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Time (days)

Figure 1

Development of S- Curve

12000
Cumulative Production (Cum)

9800 10000
10000 9200
8200
8000 6800

6000 5000

4000 3200
1800
2000 800
1 200 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
0
Time (days)

Figure 2

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 MR Gelal
FPM

LINE OF BALANCE
Line of Balance is a graphic technique used for project planning and control to depict time-
quantity relationships. They apply best to linear and repetitive operations such as tunnels,
pipelines, highways and building projects.
The vertical axis typically plots cumulative progress or percentage completed for different
systems of a project, such as the structural, electrical, mechanical and other trade sub
contractors on a high-rise building. The horizontal axis plots time.
An example may be, clearing, excavation, stringing, welding, pipe laying, and backfill
operations on a pipeline. As long as the slopes are either equal or decreasing as one moves to
the right, the project should proceed satisfactorily. However, if early scheduling shows one
operation proceeding too rapidly, with a high slope compared with those preceding it, the
time and location of the first conflicts become rapidly apparent. To illustrate this, figure 3
shows the eighth operation starting to conflict with the seventh, when each is about 70%
complete.

100%

Time

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 MR Gelal
FPM

Linked Bar Chart

Linked bar chart is a modified version of Gantt bar chart. It was developed to
overcome some of the inherent limitations of bar chart. It shows the links between an
activity and the preceding or succeeding activities. The linked bar chart has advantage of
exhibiting the effect of delay on succeeding activities and also it can provide some
information of the extra time available (if there is) with an activity for its completion. The
extra time available for an activity for its completion is called float. Similarly, the
activities, which do not have extra time for completion, are called critical activities.
It is to be noted that linking bars are very complicated, difficult and sometimes
impossible to show graphically.
An example of linked bar chart is presented below.
Example:
Activity Duration Predecessors Followers
A 4 - B
B 3 A D
C 2 A F
D 2 B G
E 7 B H
F 3 C H
G 8 D -
H 8 E, F -

Corresponding AON and CPM Network

D G

B
E
Start A En
d
C F H

Corresponding Linked bar Chart is as given in figure 1 below.

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FPM

Milestone Chart
A Milestone Chart is an improved version of a bar chart in which some of the limitations
of bar chart are eliminated. As Henry Gantt invented it, it is called Gantt Milestone
Chart. Combined activity bar charts can be converted to milestone bar charts by placing
small triangles at strategic locations in the bars to indicate completion of certain
milestones within each activity or group of activities as shown in figure below. A
milestone implies some specific stage or point where major activity either begins or ends,
or cost data become critical.
Figure (a) shows a bar chart of a project, which involves four tasks or activities or jobs
viz. Task I, Task J, task K and Task L and figure (b) shows the corresponding Milestone
Chart.
It may be seen that in a milestone chart the long time activities or jobs or tasks are
identified in terms of specific events or milestones which are plotted against the time
scaled indicating their accomplishments by specified times. Each bar in a milestone chart
again represents an activity or job or task and all the bars taken together represent the
entire project.
A milestone chart shows relationship between the milestones within the same activity or
job or task. It may be seen from fig. (b) that Milestone 2 cannot be started until milestone
1 has been accomplished. Thus as compared to bar chart better control can be achieved
with the help of a milestone chart, but it still possesses the same deficiency that it does
not depict the interdependencies between the various tasks or the relationship between the
milestones of different tasks.

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FPM

Earned Value Analysis

Any deviation in schedule, performance or cost from the plan or from the set standard to
the actual accomplishment is called variance. In the past the conventional method of
control analysis was variance analysis. This measures the difference between two factors
by subtracting one from the other to give a positive or negative variance. It can be used to
show differences between actual progresses and planned, and the resources used against
estimate or budget. For example, the followings are common variances in the control of
projects:
Scheduled start vs. Actual start
Scheduled finish vs. actual finish
Scheduled time for an activity vs. actual time
Scheduled date of milestone vs. the actual date when the milestone was reached
Budgeted cost vs. Actual cost
Measured value vs. Actual cost
Budgeted man-hours vs. Actual man-hours
Budgeted unit cost vs. Actual unit cost
Although still used extensively today, variance analysis must be supplemented by other
methods, as it is an inadequate, often misleading, and sometimes meaningless, guide to
progress and performance.
For example, consider a simple case where out of total project cost of NRs. 25,00,000,
the budgeted expenditures to date on a project is NRS. 850,000 and actual expenditure is
NRs. 900,000, giving a variance of NRs. 50,000. All this tells us is that expenditure is
ahead of budget. It does not give us any of the following information:
Whether we are on, above or below the expected cost performance.
What will be the likely final cost of the project
Whether we are on, behind or ahead of schedule
What will be the likely completion time of the project
Thus variance analysis, when used on its own is an ineffective way of analyzing and
reporting project progress and performance.
Performance analysis based on Earned Value
The modern methodology used in analyzing project progress and performance uses
Performance Measurement based on Earned Value concepts, which integrates cost and
schedule on a structured and personalized basis. There are actually three elements of data
required to analyze performance, from which more information can be extracted than
from than two-element variance analysis. These elements are:
Budgeted Cost of Work schedule (BCWS) = NRs. 850,000
Actual Cost of Work Performed (ACWP) = NRs. 900,000
Budgeted Value of the Work Actually Completed, i.e. Earned Value (EV)
=NRS.750, 000
In addition the completion time of the project is 50 weeks (say).

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FPM

Cost variance CV
Cost Variance CV, is the difference of Budgeted Value of Work performed
(Earned Value) and Actual Cost of Work Performed. It can be expressed as:
CV= EV-ACWP
Negative value of CV indicates Cost Overrun. In the above example, CV is,
= NRs. 750, 000- NRs. 900, 000
= NRs. (-) 150, 000
The project is NRs. 150, 000 over budget!
Cost Performance
Cost Performance can be obtained by dividing Earned Value EV by Actual cost of
Work Performed ACWP. It can be expressed as:
Cost Performance = EV/ACWP
In the above Example,
Cost Performance = NRs. 750,000/NRs. 900,000
= 0.8333
The project is obtaining 83.33 Paisa of Earned Value for every Rupee expended, that is
cost performance is 83.33% of that planned.
Final Cost Forecasting= NRs. 25,00,000/ 0.83333
= NRs. 30,00,000
The project will be NRs. 500,000 over budget, if there is no change in performance.
Schedule Variance SV
Schedule Variance SV (In cost terms), is the difference of Budgeted Value of
Work performed (Earned Value) and Budgeted Cost of Work Schedule (BCWS). It can be
expressed as:
SV= EV-BCWS
Negative Value of SV indicates time overrun. In the above example, SV is,
SV (In cost terms)= NRs. 750,000- NRs. 850, 000
SV (In cost terms)= NRs. (-) 100, 000
The Project is equivalent of NRs. 100,000 behind schedule.
Schedule Performance
Schedule Performance can be obtained by dividing Earned Value EV by Budgeted
Cost of Work Schedule BCWS. It can be expressed as:
Schedule Performance= EV/BCWS
In the above Example,
Schedule Performance = NRs. 750,000/NRs. 850,000
= 0. 8823
Schedule Performance is only 88.23 % of that planned.

Final Completion Time Forecasting= 50 weeks/ 0.8823

= 56.67 Weeks
The project will be 6.67 weeks late, if there is no change in performance.