1.

2: Experimental Probability I

The Deal or No Deal Problem

How can mathematics be used to make decisions on the game Deal or No Deal?

1. What are the chances that you will select the $1,000,000 suitcase on the first
attempt?

2. You are first asked to select 5 suitcases out of 25 (since one is the one you are holding).
How many different ways can you select 5 different suitcases?

3. How many different ways can you select 5 different suitcases where one of them holds
the $1,000,000?

4. What are the chances that one of the suitcases of the 5 you choose will hold the
$1,000,000?

5. How many different ways can you select 5 different suitcases where one of them holds
the $1,000,000, one holds the $750,000 and another holds the $500,000?

6. After selecting ONE suitcase and taking away many more this is what is left?
1.2: Experimental Probability

Activity 1-Rolling a Die

1. Roll a die 50 times and record the number of times each number is rolled. Use the frequency table below:
1 2 3 4 5 6
Face of Die
Tally

Empirical
Probability

Add your
tally and the
tally of 3
other
groups
New
Empirical
Probability

2. Theoretically,
Let E be the face of the die that is showing (the value rolled), find the theoretical probability that the face
of the die will show for each number:
P(E=1) = P(1) = P(4) =
P(E=2) = P(2) = P(5) =
P(3) = P(6) =

3. As the number of trials increase what did you notice about the Empirical probabilities of each outcome S =
{1,2,3,4,5,6}?

4. Using your experimental results, what is the probability of:

a) Rolling a 5?

b) Rolling a 7?

c) Rolling a number greater than 4?

d) Compare your answer in c) to the theoretical probability of rolling a number greater than 4.
5. Theoretically, what is the probability of rolling:
a) An odd number?

b) A prime number?

c) A number which is prime or odd?

P((E=prime)U(E=odd))

d) a number which is prime and even?

Activity 2-Tossing a Coin

6. Toss a coin 50 times and record the number of times each of these outcomes occur: heads, or
tails
HEADS TAILS

7. Empirically, what is the probability of tossing a head? How does this compare to the theoretical probability
of rolling a head?

8. Use a tree diagram to show the possible outcomes of tossing a coin 3 times.

9. What is the probability of tossing at least 1 head?

10. What is the probability of tossing all heads or all tails?

Activity 3-Picking a Desired Item

Given a bag with 4 red, 6 white and 5 blue chips,
11. White is the probability that the chip draw will be red? White? Blue?
12. What is the probability that the chip draw is not red?

13. Suppose that a blue chip is draw (and not put back into the bag) what is the probability that the second
chip is red?
P(drawing a red chip|(given that)blue chip was draw) =

Activity 4-Life Insurance Tables

14. What is the probability that a female will live to be 80 years old?

15. What is the probability that a 5 year old female will live to be 80 years old? (Should this number be smaller
or larger than the number in a)? Why?)

16. What is the probability that a 20 year old man will live to be 40? 70?

17. What is the probability that a 40 year old woman will live another 10 years? 60 year old woman?

18. Find the probability that a 15 year old will live to be 65 if the person is:
a) a boy b) a girl

Examples
19. Find the probability that a number picked up at random between 1 and 20 is
a) Even b) A perfect square c)