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JETRO Survey - Analysis of Japan-China Trade in 2013 and Outlook For 2014
JETRO Survey - Analysis of Japan-China Trade in 2013 and Outlook For 2014
JETRO Survey - Analysis of Japan-China Trade in 2013 and Outlook For 2014
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Press Release
Total trade sees decline for two consecutive years while Japans trade deficit registers record high
Converting yen-denominated statistics for imports (preliminary) and exports (revised) released by Japans Ministry of Finance in January 2014 to US dollars,
the Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO) found that Japans total trade with China dropped 6.5% to US$311.995 billion in 2013, down for the second
consecutive year.
Exports to China fell 10.2% to US$129.883 billion, posting a double-digit decline for the second straight year, while imports from China fell 3.7% to
US$182.112 billion, making the first drop since 2009. Japans balance of trade logged a deficit of US$52.229 billion.
As a result, Japans deficit with China was recorded as the highest ever, up 17.8% from the previous year.
Also, Japans total exports with the world decreased 10.2% from the year earlier to US$719.332 billion. Chinas contribution ratio in export fluctuation to the
world was the largest ever as a single country with minus 1.9 points. The drop in exports to China became a major reason for Japans decreased exports.
Summary points:
Overview of 2013
1. Exports to China see a double-digit decline for two consecutive years
On the back of Chinas slowdown in domestic demand in line with the countrys economic structural reforms, near-completion of facility investment and
changing demand, a serious decrease was seen in the exports of main products, including general machines such as construction, mining and metal
processing machines, as well as electric devices such as semiconductors. Those of automobiles drastically fell after Japan-related demonstrations in
China and have continued to drop at double-digit level. But the margin of decline was drastically narrower than the 42.8% drop in the first half of the
year.
2. Imports from China decline for first time in four years
With imports, a decrease was noted in manufactured goods such as iron and steel, clothing and clothing accessories and general machinery. Those of
one of the main items, electronic products, posted stagnant growth with a 2.6% rise due to a sharp decline in those of audiovisual products (including
components) despite an increase in imports of communication devices such as smart phones and electronic parts such as semiconductors.
3. Chinas share of total Japanese export ranks second for first time in five years, losing the lead to the US
Chinas share of Japans total trade accounted for 20.0% and that of Japans import value was 21.7%, both continuing to top the list consistently.
Meanwhile, Chinas share of Japans exports was 18.1%, which was ranked second following the US (18.5%), falling from the top for the first time in five
years.
Detail analysis
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1.Exports:
Exports decline centering on main items due to Chinas sluggish domestic demand in line with the governments economic structural reforms
In addition to Chinas sluggish domestic demand in line with economic structural reforms by the Chinese government (its real GDP growth rate in 2013 was
7.7%), near-completion of prior facility investments and changing demand, Japans exports to China in 2013 showed a decrease in most items such as
electrical machinery, general machinery and manufactured goods. On the other hand, those of chemical products increased after the previous years decline
thanks to high growth of organic compounds.
2.Imports:
Imports of various products decline while those of smartphones and photoelectric cell increase
In Japanese imports from China in 2013, those of electronic products posted stagnant growth with a 2.6% rise due to poor sales of liquid crystal televisions,
while those of communication devices centering on smart phones and electric parts such as semiconductors were brisk. In addition, those of general
machines and foodstuff fell from the previous years growth. Also, a decrease was noted in the imports of a variety of products, including a two-year
decrease of chemical products and manufactured goods. On the other hand, those of transportation equipment maintained high growth.
3.Chinas share of total Japanese export ranks second for first time in five years, following the US
China accounted for 20.0% of all Japanese trade, up 0.3 points from the 19.7% in the previous year. This is the first rise above the 20% level in two years.
While China remains Japans largest trading partner in terms of import and total trade value, export value came second, falling from first place for the first
time in five years since 2008. While Japans share of exports to China was unchanged from the previous year at 18.1%, those of exports to the US rose to
18.5%, up 0.9 points. On the other hand, Japans share of imports from China increased to 21.7%, up 0.4 points from the previous year.
Exports:
1. Exports of items for infrastructure investment such as construction and mining machines are expected to be continuously slow as investment demand
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led by the government seems to be limited. In addition, those of equipment machinery, parts and raw materials, which are used for production of
finished goods in China, are expected to remain unchanged reflecting Chinas sluggish industrial production as well as development of local production.
2. Exports of automobiles and their components, which were negatively affected by Japan-related demonstrations, are expected to increase due to a
recovery in sales for Japanese auto makers. In addition, if Japanese automobile sales expand continually, exports of raw materials such as iron and steel
and those of the surrounding area such as production facilities are also expected to increase.
Imports:
1. Imports of communication devices are likely to see continuous growth, although the expansion of smart phones is expected to slow compared to the
last few years. Those of auto components, which are used for local production in China, are expected to increase.
2. Although an expansion in demand is expected in Japan on the back of the countrys economic recovery, there is a possibility that rising import prices
may have a negative impact on imports, backed by the lower price competitiveness of Chinese products because of the weak yen, centering on
manufactured goods such as iron and steel and materials and intermediate goods such as chemical products.
*On a yen-basis, figures of Japans total trade with China increased by 14.1% to 30.3 trillion yen, with imports rising 17.4% to 17.7 trillion yen and exports rising 9.7% to 12.6 trillion
yen. From April 1996, the Finance Ministry began releasing trade statistics figures only in yen. Since then, JETRO has converted yen-denominated trade figures to US dollars, based on
the rates posted by the Ministry.
According to the Ministry, as the currency of settlement for Japans exports to Asia in the second half of 2013, the US dollar, Japanese yen and Chinese yuan account for respectively
53.6%, 42.7% and 1.1%, while the figures reach 73.2%, 24.5% and 0.7% for Japans imports from Asia. The US dollar is the most-used currency for trade settlement.
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