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Focus On Refinery Product Flows
Focus On Refinery Product Flows
CISandtheMiddleEastarethelargestgasolineexporterstoAsia.WhileChinaandIndiadonotimportgasolineasthey
haveenoughrefinerycapacitytomeetdomesticdemand,othercountriesremainimporters.Forexample,Malaysiahasa
substantialdeficitindomesticgasolineproductionandreliesheavilyongasolineimporttomeetover50%ofdemand.
SmallvolumesofgasolineareexportedtoEurope,MiddleEastandAfrica.Indiaistheonlymajorgasolineexporterof
gasolinetomarketsoutsideofAsia-Pacific.MostofotherAsiancountriesaregasolineimporters.Oneofthereasonsisthe
lackoflightoilprocessingcapacityanddeepconversioncapacity.Theclosingofthegapwillrequiremajorinvestments,
whichpresentsaproblemforthesmallerAsianeconomies.
CISisessentiallytheonlyregiontocomplementdomesticsupply.Chinahadbeenamajorimporterduetoheavy
industrializationinlastdecadeandhasrepresentedabouthalfoftheregionsimports.Investmentsinrefinerycapacity
withinCIShaveenabledexportstoAsia-Pacific.Inparticular,Russianinvestmentinhydroprocessingtomeetmore
stringentfuelspecificationcoupledwithadditionsofdeepconversioncapacityhaveresultedinRussiabeingamajor
suppliertoAsiancountries.
Middle Distillate Exports in 2014
Indiasshareofexportsisabouttwo-thirdsoftotalexportsfromAsia-Pacific.Indiahasinvestedheavilyindeepconversion
capacityandadditionalrefinerycapacitysince2000.Theinvestmentinhydroprocessinganddeepconversionhashelped
Indianrefinerstomeetmorestringentfuelspecificationsandmeetthegrowingdemand.
MiddleEastandEuropearethemajorexporterofnaphthatoAsia.Europehasbeenabletoincreasethesupplyofnaphthabecauseofitsavailabilitystemmingfromthe
decliningdemandforgasoline.Three-quartersofnaphthaimportsareroutedtoChina.Chinasimportofnaphthaisneededforitspetrochemicalindustry.Aswiththerest
ofAsia,Chinaspetrochemicalindustryismostlynaphthabased.Mostofthenaphtha-basedpetrochemicalindustryhasbeenaddedinAsiatomeetdomesticdemandwith
investmentstakingplaceinChina,SouthKoreaandIndia.
Naphtha Exports in 2014
Asiahasessentiallynoexportsofnaphtha.
Africa,EuropeandMiddleEastaremajorsuppliersoffueloil.HalfoffueloilimportsmovetoIndiaandChina(Chinafueloil
importisthreetimesmorethanIndia)withtherestofAsiaimportingtheotherhalfoffueloil.Theinvestmentindeep
conversioncapacityinChinaandIndiatomeethighermiddledistillatedemandandtheresultingreductioninfueloil
productionhasledtohigherimportsforfueloilinChinaandIndia.
OnlylimitedexportoffueloilisreportedinAsia.ExportsaremainlyfromIndia.
Product Flows
TheoutlookfortheimportsandexportsofproductstoandfromtheAsia-Pacificregionisprovidedbelowfor2020and
2030.
ImportsfromCISareexpectedtodecline,whileimportsfromEuropeandNorthAmericaareexpectedtoincreasein
comparisonwiththelevelsof2014.ImportsfromNorthAmericawillbetheresultofelevatedrefineryrunsintheU.S.
becauseofcost-advantagedrefineryinputs.ImportsfromEuropewillincreasebecauseEuropeanrefinerieswillhave
excesscapacityincomparisontotheneedsofEurope.Incontrast,CISwouldneedtomakeinvestmentsinlightoil
processingcapacitytoincreasegasolineproductionandtomeetfuturegasolinespecifications.
GasolineexportsfromAsiawilldecline.OnlyIndiaisexpectedtoremainagasolineexporter.
Gasoline Imports in 2030
GasolineimportsfromEuropewilldeclinewhileimportsfromMiddleEastandNorthAmericawillincrease.Itisexpected
thatChinaandIndiawillnotanyimports.Instead,theimportrequirementwillbeassociatedwiththerestoftheregion,
includingAustralia,whichisexpectedtoincreaseitslevelofimports.
GasolineexportswillbeessentiallyeliminatedfromAsiain2030.
ImportsfromtheCISregionareexpectedtoincrease.Additionally,theMiddleEastisexpectedtoemergeasasupplierof
middledistillatestoAsia-Pacificby2020.MiddledistillateimportstoChinaareexpectedtoremainstablewhileimportsto
restofAsia-Pacific(exceptforIndia,whichisexpectedtoremainanexporter)areexpectedtoincrease.
ExportsfromAsiatoMiddleEastareexpectedtobeeliminatedby2020.Thefocusofexportsisexpectedtoshifttoward
Africawhiletheoveralllevelofexportsisreduced.Indiasshareofexportsisexpectedtobeabouttwo-thirdsofthetotal
forAsia-Pacific.Chinaisnotexpectedtobeanexporterofmiddledistillatesoutsideoftheregion.
ImportsfromtheMiddleEastareexpectedtoincreasesignificantlyby2030.ImportstoChinaareexpectedtoremain
stablewiththeincreaseinimportsassociatedwiththerestofAsia-Pacific(exceptforIndia,whichwillremainanexporter
ofmiddledistillates).
By2030,essentiallyonlyAricawillremainanoutletforexportsfromAsia-Pacific.Furthermore,itisexpectedthatalmostall
oftheexportswillcomefromIndia.
increaseslightlyincomparisonwith2014withthree-quartersofnaphthaimportsgoingtoChina.Withethaneexpectedto
remaincheaperthannaphthaaspetrochemicalfeedstock,theadditionofmoreethylenecapacityintheU.S.willhavean
impactonnaphthaimports.Insteadofimportingnaphtha,theAsiancountrieswillimportsomepetrochemicalsdirectlyfrom
theU.S.
SinceAsia-Pacificwillbeshortofnaphtha,essentiallynoexportsareexpected.
ImportsofMiddleEastnaphthaareexpectedtocontinuetogrow.Chinaisexpectedtoremainthemajorimporterof
naphtharepresentingapproximatelythree-quartersoftheregionsimports.
WithAsia-Pacificexpectedtoremainshortofnaphtha,essentiallynoexportsareexpectedfromtheregion.
Asia-Pacificisexpectedtoremainanimporteroffueloilwiththeregionaddingconversioncapacity.ImportstoIndiaand
ChinaareexpectedtorepresentedapproximatelyhalfoftheregionsimportswithChinasimportssomefourtimesthatof
India.
OnlylimitedexportsoffueloilareexpectedwiththeexportsmainlyfromIndia.
Fuel Oil Imports in 2030
ImportsfromRussiaareexpectedtoincreasesignificantly.Chinaisexpectedtobethemajorimporter(representing
approximatelyhalfoftheregionsimports)withimportstoIndiaremainingstableandimportstotherestoftheregion
declining.
Exportsfromregionareexpectedtobeessentiallynon-existentby2030.
NorthAmericaNaturalGas
GlobalNaturalGas
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