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EconomyTheRealFaceof

ClashofCivilizationinMiddleEast MiddleEastCrisis
LondonConferenceon
Afghanistan
EversincethedemiseoftheCommunistthreatin1991,theleadingscholars USatACrossroads

havebeenproliferatingtheirvisionsastohowtheworldpoliticswould StrategicParadigmShiftin

reshape.Amongstall,SamuelP.Huntington's'ClashofCivilizations'theory SouthAsia
GlobalWarandPeace
hasbeenrulingtheacademicdebateforpasttwodecades.Accordingto THEMYTHOFINDIAASA

Huntington'shallucination,theconflictsofpostColdWarerawouldoccur GREATPOWER
IRAQ&AFGHANISTAN|Grand
alongtheculturalfaultlinesregions,ethnicgroups,nationalitiesand Strategy,GrandFailures
religiousgroupsseparatingcivilizationsattwolevels:firstly,atmicrolevel AsianInfrastructure

i.e.adjacentgroupsforcontrolofterritoryandsecondly,atmacroleveli.e. InvestmentBank|AChallenge
forBrettonWoods
statescompeteformilitaryandeconomicpowertointernationallypromote KashmirPlebiscite|intheLight
theirpoliticalandreligiousvalues. ofScottishReferendum
XisIndiaYatra|Howwould
EconomySpecial thevisitimpactPakistan?
Monday,December01,2014

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The ongoing situation in Middle East suggests that Huntington's theory has already started showing its worst colours.
Unfortunately,theMuslimcountrieshavegoneastepaheadbyindulgingintosectarianismwhilenegatingHuntington'sclaim
thatthefuturetheatreofwarwouldconstitutetheWestversustherest.Furthermore,bothmicroandmacrolevelsoffault
linesare,today,wellprominentontheMiddleEastlandscape.

Asregardstheelementofreligionininternationalrelations,thereexisttwooppositeschoolsofthought:

1.Thefirst,whiledownplayingthereligiousfactor,believesthatinternationalrelationsisasecularsocialsciencewherereligion
is not a deciding factor in formulating a state's foreign policy. Scholars belonging to this group argue that the breakup of
ChristendomafterPeaceofWestphalia1648anddissolutionofOttomanEmpire1924gavebirthtothemodernstatesystem
inEuropeandtheIslamicworldrespectively.Sincethen,nationstateshavealwayspreferredtheirextremenationalinterests
survival, security, sovereignty, territorial and economic gains in deciding their relations with other actors of the
internationalcommunity.

2.ThesecondgroupintegratesreligionintothestudyofpopulistpoliticsandclaimsthateversincethecreationofIsraeland
theepisodeof9/11,religionhasincreasinglybeenacentralfactorinrelationswithinandespeciallyamongstates.

AsChristianityisdividedintoCatholicandProtestantfactions,theMuslimworldisdividedintoSunniandShiiteIslamicstates.
There are overall 8790% Sunni and 1013% Shiite Muslims spread all over the world. Saudi Arabia being a typical Sunni
majority country has approximately 8590% of Sunni and 1015% Shiite population. Similarly, Iran is a typical example of
Shiitestatewitharound90%ofShiiteversus10%ofSunnipopulace.

SyriaandIraqaretwovariantswheremajoritypopulationhas/hadbeengovernedbyminorities.Syriaholds74%Sunni,16%
5/25/2016 jworldtimes.com/Article/122014_Clash_of_Civilization
Shiite(Alawites)and10%Christianspopulation.Thepower,however,remainedwithminorityAlawitessince1920swhenSyria
becameFrenchcolonyonthefallofOttomanEmpire.ThepowerstructureinSyriakeptswingingbetweenthetwosectsafter
its independence in 1946. In 1970, Hafez alAssad an Alawite assumed power on the podium of Ba'ath Party. He
maintainedagoodbalanceduringhisregime.ThevisibilityofmanySunnisintopelitepositionsrarelyassuagedthefearsof
some Syrians that the state machinery was completely dominated by a secretive, allpowerful and monolithic Alawite
community.ThepresentincumbentBasharalAssad,conversely,lostthestrategicbalance.

Onthecontrary,ShiiteMuslimsareinmajorityinIraqwith6065%againstSunniMuslimswith3035%oftotalpopulation.
Historically, the Shiite were denied their right to govern as they opposed the British occupation of Iraq during WWI, and
minoritySunniArabsweredelegatedthereinsofpowerbytheColonialSecretary,WinstonChurchill.Anyprotestagainstthe
minorityruleinIraqhadbeenbrutallysuppressed.TheminorityruleinIraqlastedtillSaddam'sousterin2003.

ThepresentscenarioinMiddleEast,though,emergedfromtheArabSpring,yetitspresentpictureis,rather,purelysectarian.

Since2003,anumberofstrategicdevelopmentshavecontributedinshapingtheregionalpoliticalandsecuritybehaviour.

Firstly,differentpoliticalactorsweretriedbytheUSinIraqwhoallfailedtoensureperpetualstability.

Secondly,theprevailingpseudodemocracyempoweredShiitemajorityinIraqafteroverninedecadesofminorityrule.

Thirdly,insteadofdevelopinganationalconsensus,IraqtransformedintoaShiitestate.

Fourthly, the two groups with complete trust deficit started competing in a zerosum game for control over Iraqi political
institutions,hence,plungingthecountryintocivilwar.

Lastly,theresistingSunniMuslimsincludingalargemajorityoftrainedSunnisoldiersdeserted/expelledfromIraqiArmy,joined
handswithresistancegroupsfightingagainstalAssadinSyria.

TheformerIraqiPremier,NooriAlMalikistandsguiltyontwoaccounts:first,fornotdevelopingnationalconsensusbytakingall
the sectarian and ethnic groups in the main national stream and second, failing in threat perception and timely mobilizing
forcesagainstonslaughtofISISdeepinsideIraqiterritory.

It may also be pertinent to critically examine Obama's foreign policy towards the region in a realist paradigm. In one simple
sentence, it is nothing short of total failure. The Washington thinktank and leadership have not only been fractured on
formulatingtheirstate'sresponsetowardsSyriancrisisbuthavealsocompletelymisreadtheregionalsituation.

From the beginning of the revolt against President Assad in 2011, Syria has become a proxy battle ground for regional and
international actors. In their long struggle for regional supremacy, Saudi Arabia and Iran are the core players in two battle
groups:

(1) the USled proxy that includes Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Qatar and even Israel all supporting the Syrian Sunni rebels to
toppleAssadand

(2) the SinoRussian led proxy that constitutes Iran and states of Iraq and Syria supporting Bashar alAssad against the
Sunnifighters.

WhereSunnirebelswereprovidedfundsandweaponsbySaudiArabia,TurkeyandQatar,theShiiteruledneighbours,Iranand
Iraq,dispatchedHezbollahfightersandIraqimilitiamentorescueAssad'sarmy.

Interestingly,theWhiteHousehasbeenplayingquiteanopposingroleinIraqandSyria.Whileit'sbeensupportingtheSunni
fightersagainstSyrianShiiteregime,simultaneouslyithasalsobeensupportingtheIraqiShiitegovernmentincrushingthe
Sunnimilitants.OnethingwhichtheUSanalystsmissedwasthestrategiclinkageofoppositionSunnigroupsbothinSyriaand
Iraqfightingagainsttheirregimes.Thisstrategiclinkageofallinterestgroupsprovidedanopportunitytoradicalgroupstocarve
outISISandmaketheregionacockpitforconflicts.

Thepoliticalanddefenceanalystsviewitallaslongterm'anticipatoryintelligence'andpolicyfailureoftheUS.Theanalystshad
reportedthegroup'semergenceandits'prowessandcapabilities'butfailedtopredicttheirwilltofight.TheUSpolicyinMiddle
Eastcanalsobegaugedwithitsoutcomesince2003.QuotingDrN.Janardhan,theregionhasbecomeahubofcrisesrather
thanstability.CriticsintheUS,bothfromrulingDemocratsandRepublicanopponentsarguethatObama'schangedtrackpolicy
is a decision taken in a political desperation in the aftermath of ISIS's beheading of two Americans and could lead to
anotherinstanceofstrategicmiscalculations.

JusttomentionPakistan,thoughaSunnimajoritycountry(8589%)withworld'ssecondlargestShiiteminority(1015%),
hasalwaysbeenconsideredamoderateIslamicstate.FawazA.Gergis,theleadingLebaneseAmericanphilosopher,inhisbook
'America and Political Islam: Clash of Cultures or Clash of Interests?' states that after disintegration of USSR, the US
administrationaskedthenewlyemergedCentralAsianIslamicstatestofollowthemoderatePakistanimodelofIslam.

ThoughtherehavebeennumerousconspiracytheoriestoigniteShiiteSunniconflictsinthecountry,Pakistanisocietystands
unitedtofoilallsuchattempts.Themerereasonofitistheequalshareofallreligious,sectarianandethniccommunitiesin
politics,militaryandbureaucracy.

AsaresponsibleinternationalactorPakistanhasalwaysplayedapositiveroleinbalancingrelationsnotonlyinMuslimworld
but also bridging the gap between the West and the East. Despite being the US frontline ally against Communist USSR,
PakistanandChina,ontheotherhand,havehistoricallybeenbestfriends.
5/25/2016 jworldtimes.com/Article/122014_Clash_of_Civilization

PakistannotonlymaintainedastrategicbalanceinitsrelationswiththeUSandChina,butalsoplayedsignificantroleineasing
tensionsbetweenthetwopavingawayforPresidentNixon'shistoricvisittoChinain1972.

PakistanenjoysequallygoodrelationswithallMuslimstates.IthascommonalityofinterestswithbothSaudiArabiaandIran.
ThebestrolethatPakistan'sforeignofficecanplayistotakeadvantageofitscrediblerelationswithIslamicworldandtheUS.
Whilststandingwithintheinternationalcommunity,andseekingsupportofotherexternalactors,Pakistancanmediateand
canhelpbridgethesectariangapamongIslamicstates.

ArshadMahmood
Articleviewed1846times.

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