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T I M E S
A TIME COMMUNICATIONS PUBLICATION
VOL XXVI No.47 Monday, 25 September 1 October 2017 Pgs.24 Rs.18

Markets correct In view of the Dussehra Holiday on


By Sanjay R. Bhatia Saturday, 30 September 2017, the next
issue of Money Times will be released
Although the markets touched fresh historic highs last Tuesday, it failed
on Friday, 29 September 2017.
to capitalize on it. Weak global cues, geopolitical tensions and
overbought conditions led to regular bouts of profit-booking and selling pressure, which dragged the Nifty below the
psychologically important level of 10K. The markets failed to offer any resilience due to lack of follow-up buying support
at higher levels. The breadth of the market remained weak amidst high volumes, which is a negative sign for the
markets.
The FIIs remained net sellers in the cash and derivatives segment. However, the DIIs remained net buyers during the
week and were seen supporting the markets. Crude oil prices remained volatile amidst hopes of further production cuts.
The US markets gained during the week amid the announcement of interest rate hikes in December by the US Federal.
On the domestic front, the FM is working out details to announce a package to boost the sagging economy.
Technically, the prevailing negative technical conditions
weighed on the market sentiment. The RSI and KST are both Believe it or not!
placed below their respective averages on the daily and weekly Gujarat Sidhee Cement recommended at
charts. Further, the Stochastic is placed below its average on
Rs.30.10 in TT last week, hit a high of
the daily chart and MACD is placed below its average on the
Rs.40.85 fetching 36% returns in just 1
weekly chart. These negative technical conditions could lead to
further bouts of selling pressure.
week!
Dynamic Industries recommended at
The prevailing positive technical conditions, however, still hold Rs.70.85 in TF last week, hit a high of Rs.93
good. The MACD is placed above its average on the daily chart.
fetching 31% returns in just 1 week!
Further, the Stochastic is placed above its average on the
Rain Industries recommended at Rs.153.50
weekly chart. Moreover, the Nifty is placed above its 50-day
SMA, 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA. The Niftys 50-day SMA
last week, hit a high of Rs.189 fetching 23%
is placed above its 100-day and 200-day SMA. Its 100-day SMA returns in just 1 week!
is placed above its 200-day SMA indicating a golden cross HEG recommended at Rs.524.80 in TT on 28
breakout. These positive technical conditions could lead to August 2017, hit a high of Rs.1068 last week
buying support at lower levels. fetching 104% returns within a month!
The -DI line has moved above the ADX line and the +DI line and
Sree Rayalaseema Alkalies & Allied
also above 28 on the daily chart, which indicates that sellers Chemicals recommended at Rs.30.30 in TT
are gaining strength. The ADX line, however, is languishing on 28 August 2017, hit a high of Rs.43.65 last
around the 16 mark, which indicates that the current market week fetching 44% returns within a month!
trend lacks strength.
The Nifty has slipped below the 10K level and is on the verge of (TF Techno Funda; TT Tower Talk)
testing its 50-day SMA placed at 9953, which does not augur This happens only in Money Times!
well for the markets. It is important for the Nifty to sustain Now in its 26th Year

A Time Communications Publication 1


above its 50-day SMA to ease the selling pressure and to
witness buying support. The Nifty has formed a negative
divergence pattern, which could lead to further selling
pressure. The market sentiment has been hit by the news flow
on geopolitical tensions across the Korean peninsula and our
slowing economy. Any positive development on either side
could lead to a smart bounce-back. However, follow-up buying
support will remain crucial at the higher levels. 9953 is an
import support level. If breached, the Nifty could test 9750.
In the meanwhile, the markets will take cues from the
geopolitical situation, global markets, Dollar-Rupee exchange
rate and crude oil prices.
Technically, the Sensex faces resistance at the 32273, 32325,
33000 and 33750 levels and seeks support at the 31610, 30921, 30680 and 29365 levels. The resistance levels for the
Nifty are placed at 10138, 9989, 10179, 10200 and 10275 while its support levels are placed at 9953, 9915, 9850 and
9750.

BAZAR.COM

Stimulus needed
Stock indices may be scaling new highs but their fundamentals
may not be that supportive at least for now. Domestic as well as Now follow us on Instagram, Facebook &
foreign liquidity is adding fuel to the fire. India once had a GDP Twitter at moneytimes_1991 on a daily basis
growth of over 8-9% but one poor monsoon derailed this to get a view of the stock market and the
growth. Some stimulus was applied to ignite the growth but was happenings which many may not be aware of.
immediately withdrawn as the economy seemed getting back on
track. Today, despite the great reforms initiated by a government bereft of major scams, the GDP is still struggling
around 4-5% in quarterly readings. It appears that demonetisation did not get the desired result and hit the economy
hard. GST, another great move, created a lot of pain in implementation since Indian merchants and traders have for
centuries dealt in bills and chitthis. But this could be teething problems, which may be resolved in another four to six
quarters. However, this is a crucial time for the government to win the state polls and pave the way for 2019
Parliamentary election. The poor IIP data does not speak well of the governments plank of development in the next
general elections. The situation needs to be changed and charged. Stimulus is the only solution by way of some fruitful
government expenditure to boost consumption and consequently the demand. This alone can impart confidence to the
private sector to ignite the capex switch and get going.
A worrisome factor that the government needs to address on a war footing is the rise in the number of jobless. India
boasts of the largest under 35 population but it may also have the largest block of unemployed youth! It is thus a
greater social and political problem than an economic one. The government is aware of it but even with continuous and
chronic flogging, the development cart is not moving. Industrialists are shying from capex how can one ease the inertia
and set the ball rolling? STIMULUS is the only solution to revive the economy that is in reverse year. How and when it
will come about and how it is quantified and timed depends on the desired impact. Let the announcement of the
Stimulus package not be considered negatively. The country is on a secular uptrend and a little graceful push could help
but which must withdrawn or recalled thereafter.
The PMs meetings with his ministers and secretaries and evaluating their achievements, breakthroughs and
shortcomings may be an exercise to formulate the ensuing budget. The meeting with the czars of industry is also aimed
at easing the stimulus dose and getting the leaders to wrest the initiative in growth.
By its slow inching upwards, the market is in no way free from apprehensions. The intra-day positives and negatives
highlight the uncertainty in the minds of investors. All the market pundits can vouch that a substantial fall or correction
is ruled out. And this is the danger signal as the market has a tendency to go against the unanimity. It also has a tendency
to catch us on the wrong foot without a warning. But, dont let this scare you because India today is too large a domestic
consumption story. The macros are in great shape and the reforms initiated will lead to some remarkable results.

A Time Communications Publication 2


From hereon, politics will be primary and economics secondary at least till May 2019. Everything that is talked,
discussed and done will be weighed carefully on the scale of politics. While the path of progress may be treaded upon it
must be done carefully without ruffling the feathers of alliance partners.

TRADING ON TECHNICALS

Dark cloud stalls near-term bull run


By Hitendra Vasudeo
Sensex Daily Trend DRV Weekly Trend WRV Monthly Trend MRV
Last Close 31922 Down 32133 Up 31150 Up 29005
Last week, the Sensex opened at 32361.36, registered a high at 32524.10 and moved to a low at 31886.09 before it
closed the week at 31922.43 and thereby showed a net fall of 350 points on a week-to-week basis. A Dark Cloud Cover
candlestick pattern was formed at the end of the week after testing the resistance/supply zone, which suggests that a
possible near-term short reversal is likely to be in place unless an immediate breakout and close above 32686 is
witnessed with a bullish candle.
Daily
After the peak of 32686, the Sensex fell to 31128, which
took 7 trading days. The rise from 31128 to 32524 took
25 days, which is typically a B structure. As a result of the
fall on the daily chart, a C structure is likely now.
The lower top at 32422 was formed on 19/09/2017
followed by In Day on 20/09/2017. Post in Day, the 2-day
high/low is critical for the next directional movement.
After testing the supply zone of 32394-32686 and In Day
structure, the 2-day high/low of post In Day becomes
critical.
A breakdown below the 2-day low triggered the fall on
Thursday and Friday. A large bearish candle on Friday
makes a mark since Thursday saw a mild recovery from
the low of 32164 and it violated the same on Friday for a downside trigger.
The C structure lower level could be as low as 32339 - 30952 for the near-to-short-term.
Weekly
Dark Cloud Cover last week is indicative of a possible lower top against the top of 32686.
Support will be at 31797-31560.
A fall and close below 31560 can lead to 31128.
Resistance will be at 32110-32335-32524.
Monthly
July and August 2017 witnessed two equal monthly ranges in the opposite directions but September got stuck in the
range.
The band is 32686 to 31017 and October will look for the next directional movement outside the band.
At the higher level, resistance and profit-booking will continue till 32686 is not crossed.
Monthly chart support point will be 31128-31017-30680.
Quarterly
Support on the quarterly chart will be at 31522-31017-30921 and on deeper correction, support will protect the slide.
Trend based on Rate of Change (RoC)
Daily chart:
1-Day trend - Down
3-Day trend - Down

A Time Communications Publication 3


8-Day trend - Down
Weekly chart: Profitrak Weekly
1-Week trend - Down A complete guide for Trading and Investments
3-Week trend - Up based on Technicals
8-Week trend - Down
What you Get?
Monthly chart:
1-Month trend - Up 1) Weekly Market Outlook of -
Sensex
3-Month trend - Up Nifty
8-Month trend - Up Bank Nifty
Quarterly chart: 2) Sectoral View of Strong/Weak/Market Perfomer
indices
1-Quarter trend - Up
3) Weekly Trading Signals
3-Quarter trend - Up 4) Stock Views and Updates every week
8-Quarter trend - Up 5) Winners for trading and investing for medium-
to-long term till March 2018
Yearly chart:
6) Winners of 2017 with fresh Weekly Signals on
1-Year trend - Up the same
3-Year trend - Up
Application of this product can be explained on the
8-Year trend - Up Telephone or via Skype or Team Viewer.
BSE Mid-Cap Index
For 1 full year with interaction,
Weekly chart: rush and subscribe to Profitrak Weekly
1-Week trend - Down
Subscription Rate: 1 month: Rs.2500; 1 year: Rs.12000
3-Week trend - Down
8-Week trend - Up For more details, contact Money Times on
An Engulfing Bear candlestick pattern stalls the rise of the 022-22616970/4805 or
BSE Mid-Cap index. moneytimes.support@gmail.com.
A further rise is above 16183 and traders may use the
intra-week rise to exit long and book profits.
The lower level of 14905 could be tested, which is the Weekly Reversal Value (WRV). In the past, we have seen
correction hitting the WRV before recovering to a new high.
BSE Small-Cap Index
1-Week trend - Down
3-Week trend - Up
8-Week trend Up
An Engulfing Bear candlestick pattern stalls the rise of the BSE Small-Cap index.
Support will be at 16145-15873. A deeper correction is below 15873 and in that case, it will hit the WRV, which is at
15441.
Strategy for the week
Profit-booking is broadly suggested for the Sensex and Sensex-related stocks in the resistance/supply zone of 32412-
32686. The high registered last week was 32524 and profit-booking pressure was witnessed and intensified on Friday to
a low of 31886.
As a result of the Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern, traders long can exit on a rise to the resistance range of 32110-
32335 with a stop loss of 32686.
Expect 31128 to be tested with volatility. Trade long on index only on a breakout and close above 32686 and Sensex
stocks which make 52 week highs. Exit long and book profits in the rest of the stocks till a new high is not registered or
on a substantial oversold condition on the weekly or monthly charts.

A Time Communications Publication 4


WEEKLY UP TREND STOCKS
Let the price move below Center Point or Level 2 and when it move back above Center Point or Level 2 then buy with whatever low registered
below Center Point or Level 2 as the stop loss. After buying if the price moves to Level 3 or above then look to book profits as the opportunity
arises. If the close is below Weekly Reversal Value then the trend will change from Up Trend to Down Trend. Check on Friday after 3.pm to
confirm weekly reversal of the Up Trend.
Note: SA-Strong Above, DP-Demand Point, SP- Supply Point, SA- Strong Above

Weekly Up
Scrip Last Level Level Center Level Level Relative
Reversal Trend
Close 1 2 Point 3 4 Strength
Value Date

Weak below Demand point Demand point Supply point Supply point

HEG 990.00 865.0 880.7 974.3 1083.7 1286.7 76.9 797.8 18-08-17
HIMADRI SPECIALITY 134.50 118.0 120.8 131.7 145.5 170.2 72.1 116.7 24-08-17
HDFC 1783.00 1748.0 1755.7 1775.3 1802.7 1849.7 68.8 1772.8 24-08-17
VAKRANGEE 511.35 498.8 501.1 509.1 519.3 537.5 66.3 498.6 24-08-17
GUJARAT ALKALIES 553.50 500.0 513.8 539.7 579.4 645.1 66.0 489.0 18-08-17

*Note: Up and Down Trend are based of set of moving averages as reference point to define a trend. Close below
averages is defined as down trend. Close above averages is defined as up trend. Volatility (Up/Down) within Down
Trend can happen/ Volatility (Up/Down) within Up Trend can happen. Relative Strength (RS) is statistical
indicator. Weekly Reversal is the value of the average.

WEEKLY DOWN TREND STOCKS


Let the price move above Center Point or Level 3 and when it move back below Center Point or Level 3 then sell with whatever high registered
above Center Point or Level 3 as the stop loss. After selling if the prices moves to Level 2 or below then look to cover short positions as the
opportunity arises. If the close is above Weekly Reversal Value then the trend will change from Down Trend to Up Trend. Check on Friday after
3.pm to confirm weekly reversal of the Down Trend.
Note: SA-Strong Above, DP-Demand Point, SP- Supply Point, SA- Strong Above

Weekly Down
Scrip Last Level Level Center Level Level Relative
Reversal Trend
Close 1 2 Point 3 4 Strength
Value Date
Demand Demand Supply Supply Strong
point point point point above
IL&FS TRANSPORTATION 75.10 69.1 73.6 76.5 78.0 79.5 32.77 77.44 08-09-17
APOLLO HOSPITALS 1035.00 974.0 1019.0 1048.0 1064.0 1077.0 33.39 1071.75 15-09-17
ECLERX SERVICES 1190.50 1080.4 1156.4 1198.2 1232.3 1240.0 33.89 1216.53 21-07-17
ZENSAR TECHNOLOGIES 751.00 710.0 738.0 753.0 766.0 768.0 34.88 779.75 15-09-17
BANK OF MAHARASHTRA 25.95 24.1 25.4 26.1 26.7 26.9 35.19 26.19 08-09-17

*Note: Up and Down Trend are based of set of moving averages as reference point to define a trend. Close below
averages is defined as down trend. Close above averages is defined as up trend. Volatility (Up/Down) within Down
Trend can happen/ Volatility (Up/Down) within Up Trend can happen.

EXIT LIST
Note: SA-Strong Above, DP-Demand Point, SP- Supply Point, SA- Strong Above
Scrip Last Close Supply Point Supply Point Supply Point Strong Above Demand Point Monthly RS

CANFIN HOMES 2665.00 2764.93 2799.50 2834.07 2946.00 2471.9 37.46


ESSEL PROPACK 248.65 257.28 260.35 263.42 273.35 231.3 39.87
EXCEL CROP CARE 1715.45 1754.44 1771.25 1788.06 1842.50 1611.9 43.78
BHARAT RASAYAN 2790.00 2876.85 2908.00 2939.15 3040.00 2612.9 43.92
BHARAT PETROLEUM CORPORATION 491.75 507.59 514.95 522.31 546.15 445.2 44.42
SUPREME INDUSTRIES 1147.00 1149.73 1162.00 1174.27 1214.00 1045.7 44.81
VINATI ORGANICS 900.00 951.92 969.50 987.08 1044.00 802.9 45.2
IGARSHI MOTRS INDIA 941.00 960.56 970.00 979.44 1010.00 880.6 47.49
MERCK 1070.00 1144.66 1170.50 1196.34 1280.00 925.7 47.77

A Time Communications Publication 5


RAMCO INDUSTRIES 247.10 263.36 268.83 274.29 292.00 217.0 47.78
MANGALORE REFINERY & PETROCHEMICALS 127.55 132.62 134.70 136.78 143.50 115.0 48.86

BUY LIST
Note: SA-Strong Above, DP-Demand Point, SP- Supply Point, SA- Strong Above
Scrip Last Close Demand point Demand point Demand Point Weak below Supply Point Monthly RS

GUJARAT ALKALIES & CHEMICALS 553.50 513.37 497.23 481.08 428.80 650.2 58.98
ITI 139.50 125.18 118.57 111.97 90.60 181.1 57.99

PUNTER PICKS
Note: Positional trade and exit at stop loss or target whichever is earlier. Not an intra-day trade. A delivery based trade for a possible time frame
of 1-7 trading days. Exit at first target or above.
Note: SA-Strong Above, DP-Demand Point, SP- Supply Point, SA- Strong Above, RS- Strength

Weak RS-
Scrip BSE Code Last Close Demand Point Trigger Supply point Supply point
below Strength
- - - - - - - - -

TOWER TALK
HBL Power Systems, manufacturer of standby batteries for railways, aviation and other industries including digital
control harness for navy submarines, is reporting higher volumes and rising prices. A scientific approach justifies
buying this stock.
The big rally in I G Petrochemicals has begun. Its Q1 EPS of Rs.13 is indicative of an EPS of over Rs.50 for FY18.
With industry P/E at ~21x, the stock may cross the magical price of Rs.1000 in a few months. Buy immediately.
Reliance Industries plans to expand its Jamnagar refinery from 60 MMTPA to 100 MMTPA by 2030 at an estimated
cost of $10 billion. There seems to be a big gap in the CMP and its intrinsic worth.
The J.K. Tyre & Industries stock shows signs of a big breakout. Anti-dumping duty imposed by the government will
aid its working. A strong buy.
Sona Koyo Steering Systems trades at a crazy P/E of 57x. Investors beware of bull-run pitfalls.
Indian Oil Corporation is likely to report better margins this year. An attractive buy at the current level.
Mahindra & Mahindra, which manufactures electric cars, will benefit immensely from the governments impetus to
the electric vehicle segment. It has also acquired Erkunt Traktor Sanaii (Turkey) for Rs.735 crore, which is a feather
in its cap. Buy.
With TRAI slashing internet usage charges, Bharti
Airtel and Vodafone India will witness a drastic cut For the busy investor
in profitability. It is advisable to stay away from this
sector till things become clearer.
Fresh One Up Trend Daily
Fresh One Up Trend Daily is for investors/traders who are
Indiabulls Ventures trades at a frenzy P/E of 80x.
keen to focus and gain from a single stock every
Think twice before taking a plunge. It is better to
miss an opportunity than to repent later. trading day.

Oil & Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) has made a With just one daily recommendation selected from
20 MMT oil discovery near Mumbai High. This can stocks in an uptrend, you can now book profit the same
significantly enhance its production levels in the day or carry over the trade if the target is not met. Our
next two years. An excellent long-term buy. review over the next 4 days will provide new exit levels
Hero MotoCorps JV Munjal Kiriu has set up a new while the stock is still in an uptrend.
unit at Ahmedabad to manufacture brake parts for This low risk, high return product is available for online
major automobile manufacturers. A positive for the subscription at Rs.2500 per month.
company.
Contact us on 022-22616970 or email us at
Novartis India is contemplating a buyback of its
moneytimes.suppport@gmail.com for a free trial.
shares. The stock may rise by about 12-15% within a
month.

A Time Communications Publication 6


Speciality Chemical major Himadri Speciality Chemical is performing very well. Rising volumes suggest a
breakout. Buy.
Karnataka Bank witnessed a breakout after its announcement of improving its digitalisation process. It has brought
down its savings bank interest rates to 3%. CASA ratio is also improving. A nice time to accumulate.
Datamatics Global Services, which posted excellent results for FY17, is continuing its upward march. The stock is
poised to touch new highs. Buy for two years.
Pincon Spirits is reportedly looking out for mergers and acquisitions. This FMCG stock is worth accumulating.
Orchid Pharma has received the Establishment Inspection Report (EIR) from the USFDA for its API manufacturing
facility in Tamil Nadu. A positive for the company.
Recently listed Reliance Home Finance, a breakaway of Reliance Capital, is available at Rs.104-109. The company
has great potential. The stock looks attractive at the current level. Buy.
Power Finance Corporation plans to raise Rs.65000 crore via a preferential issue on private placement basis. The
Chairman recently stated that its NPA provisions are likely to witness reversals starting Q3. An excellent stock to
buy at the current level.
Power Grid Corporation of India, which reported robust performance in the last few quarters, has great plans
going ahead. A good buy.
Sintex Plastics Technology looks good at the current level for a price target of Rs.140. This plastic major may
surprise the street with an EPS of Rs.9 in FY18 and Rs.11 in FY19.
Oriental Hotels jointly owned by the Tata's and the Reddys, owns various Taj hotels across South India. People in
the know are accumulating the stock on rumours of the Tata group buying Reddy's stake at a huge premium to the
CMP. Buy for quick gains.
Stocks of Tata group companies such as Tinplate Company of India, Tata Metaliks, Tata Sponge Iron and Tayo Rolls
have multiplied many times in the past one year except TRF. This equipment and material handling company has
shown an upside momentum in the past few days. Also, marquee investors like Nimish Shah hold a large stake in the
company. The stock could double.
Ador Welding, belonging to the Electrodes and Graphite Sector, could witness a rally similar to HEG and Graphite
India. Buy this potential blue-chip company for multibagger returns.
After appreciating around 80%, Autolite (India) has corrected around 20% from its 52-week high. Investors can
buy this stock at every decline for whooping gains in coming years.
IFCI has invited bids for a stake sale in Tourism Finance
Corporation of India and if rumours are to be believed,
all big players in the hospitality industry are in the fray. Relative Strength (RS)
An Ahmedabad-based analyst recommends Akar Tools, signals a stocks ability to perform in a
Acknit Industries and Nagreeka Exports. As per the dynamic market.
Astro-Techno view, these three stocks may prove to be Knowledge of it can lead you to profits.
the multibaggers of SAMVAT 2074. From his past
recommendations, Grauer & Weil (India) hit a high of POWER OF RS - Rs.3100 for 1 year:
Rs.72 last week (up 80% from its recommendation at
Rs.39.9 on 26 June 2017); Freshtrop Fruits hit a high of What you get -
Rs.151.95 last week (up 72% from its recommendation
Most Important- Association for 1 year
at Rs.88.25 on 10 July 2017); and Ultramarine &
Pigments hit a high of Rs.245 last week (up 41% from at just Rs.3100!
its recommendation at Rs.173.65 on 26 June 2017). 1-2 buy / sell per day on a daily basis
The grey market premium for Prataap Snacks IPO is 1 buy per week
Rs.270-275; Capacit'e Infraprojects IPO is Rs.140-145; 1 buy per month
and SBI Life Insurance Co. IPO is Rs.3-4. ICICI 1 buy per quarter
Lombard General Insurance Co. IPO is trading at a
discount of Rs.2-3.
1 buy per year
Astro Alert: Investors are advised to trade cautiously For more details, contact Money Times on
with a strict stop loss from Monday, 25 September to 022-22616970/4805 or
Wednesday, 27 September. Saturn/Moon conjunction at moneytimes.support@gmail.com.
trine with Rahu combination could bring high volatility.

A Time Communications Publication 7


BEST BET

Gabriel India Ltd


(BSE Code: 505714) (CMP: Rs.189.05) (FV: Re.1)
By Amit Kumar Gupta
Gabriel India Ltd (Gabriel) is engaged in the manufacturing and marketing of ride control products, which consist of
shock absorbers, struts and front forks for the automotive segment. Its business units include Commercial Vehicles
(CVs) and Railways, 2-Wheelers and 3-Wheelers, Passenger Cars; and Aftermarket. It manufactures front forks and rear
shock absorbers for 2-Wheelers; McPherson struts and shock absorbers for passenger cars; cabin dampers, seat
dampers and suspension shock absorbers for CVs and shock absorbers for railway coaches. Its products are marketed
across the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, Iran, USA, Latin America, North America, South Africa, Europe,
Australia and Asia Pacific. Its manufacturing facilities are located at Chakan, Khandsa, Nashik, Hosur, Dewas, Parwanoo
and Sanand.
Gabriels revenue grew at 6.3% CAGR to Rs.15291 mn between
Financials: (Rs. in mn)
FY12-17. The growth was sluggish due to slowdown in the
Particulars FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E
economy and muted auto industry sales during the same period.
However, we expect revenue to grow at 13.3% CAGR to Rs.19261 Revenue 14382 15291 17286 19621
mn over the next two years led by a shift in strategy and revival in EBITDA 1276 1440 1619 1879
the auto industry. PAT 752 816 987 1176
Gabriel has increased its focus in the aftermarket and export EPS (Rs.) 5.2 5.7 6.9 8.2
business which has grown significantly in the past four years. Its P/E (x) 40.1 37 30.6 25.7
margin has improved from 6.9% in FY13 to 9.4% in FY17. We P/BV (x) 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03
expect margins to improve further led by growth in the EV/EBITDA (x) 23.3 20.6 18.4 15.8
aftermarket and export business and higher capacity utilization.
Gabriel is shifting its focus from B2B to B2C player, reducing its dependence on OEMs by focusing on the aftermarket
segment business. Its distributor/ retailer network has grown from 350/5,000 in FY13 to 500/10,000 FY17. In FY17,
fresh product launches took the count up to 500 products and 8 new product lines.
Gabriel has strengthened its brand and retailer connects through the execution of Elite Retailer program across various
regions. In the first phase, 500 premier retailers were selected for this program, which is expected to reach 1,500 by
2018. Revenue share from the aftermarket segment grew from ~8.5% in FY10 to 13% in FY17. Its aftermarket segment
revenue has grown at 16% CAGR to Rs.2189 mn over the past four years and is expected to grow at 24% CAGR to Rs.3.3
bn between FY17-19E.
Gabriel exports to all major regions i.e. North America, Europe, Australia and Asia-Pacific leveraging its existing
relationship with global OEMs. Exports account for 4% of its revenues. Export revenues have grown at 24% CAGR in the
past four years to Rs.667 mn. Export revenues in the overall mix doubled from ~2% in FY10 to 4% in FY17. Gabriel aims
to increase its revenue share from exports to 10% over the next three years. It has been leveraging its relationship with
global OEMs in India to expand its global business. We expect its export revenue to grow at 24% CAGR over FY17-19E to
Rs.1 bn, led by new orders and entry into the new market.
Gabriel will be a key beneficiary of the demand revival in the automobile sector as 83% of its revenues come from OEMs.
In the past four years, the 2-wheelers, 3-wheelers, passenger vehicles and CV segments witnessed sluggish growth of
5.9%/2.1%/6.8% and 4.3% CAGR respectively. Gabriel has significant exposure in 2-wheelers (55% of revenues),
passenger vehicles (32% of revenues) and CVs and Railways (13% of revenues). We expect revenue from OEMs to grow
at 11% CAGR to Rs.17.2 bn over FY17-19E led by a double-digit growth in the automobile sector.
We expect Gabriel's earnings to grow at a healthy CAGR of 13.3% over FY17- FY19E, better than last five years (FY13-
FY17) CAGR earnings growth of 6%. Its balance sheet has improved substantially in the past few years and we foresee it
strengthening further with strong free cash flows and no major capex.
Technical Outlook: The stock looks very good on the daily chart for medium-term investment. It is making a higher
high and higher low and moving in a strong uptrend. The stock trades above all important moving averages like the 200
DMA level.
Start accumulating at this level of Rs.189.05 and on dips to Rs.165 for medium-to-long-term investment and a possible
price target of Rs.275+ in the next 6 months.

A Time Communications Publication 8


STOCK WATCH
By Amit Kumar Gupta

Ajanta Pharma Ltd


(BSE Code: 532331) (CMP: Rs.1212.90) (FV: Rs.2) (TGT: Rs.1400+)
Ajanta Pharma Ltd (APL) is a holding company and a speciality pharmaceutical company that develops, produces and
markets a range of branded and generic formulations. Its business includes branded generics in the emerging markets of
Asia and Africa; generics in the developed markets of USA; and Institutional sales. Its branded generics business is
spread across India and over 30 emerging countries across Africa, Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), the
Middle East and South East Asia. It serves a range of therapeutic segments such as anti-biotic, anti-malarial, anti-
diabetic, cardiology, gynecology, orthopedics, pediatric, respiratory and general health products. It has four
manufacturing plants located in and around Aurangabad in Maharashtra. Its subsidiaries include Ajanta Pharma
(Mauritius) Ltd, Ajanta Pharma USA Inc., Ajanta Pharma Philippines Inc. and Ajanta Pharma Nigeria Ltd.
With its aggressive launches and improved sales force productivity, APLs domestic formulation business, which
accounts for ~32% of its total sales, grew at 22% CAGR to Rs.5.3 bn (higher than IPM) over FY12-17. Despite the
challenging regulatory environment and loss of sales due to the GST roll-out, we expect steady growth momentum to
continue going forward, driven by improved sales force productivity and new product launches (15-20 products per
year). We envisage its domestic formulation business to report 12.5% CAGR over FY17-19E.
APLs export business grew at 25% CAGR over FY12-17 led by Emerging Markets (Africa and Asia). With >713 front-end
workforce in both markets, APL offers customized products in each market. However, we expect the growth to remain
muted in Africa (1% CAGR) and Asia (10%) over FY17-19E owing to reduction in institutional business (anti-malarial)
in Africa and currency headwind in Asia. Despite being a late entrant into USA, APLs sales in US zoomed to Rs.1.85 bn in
FY17 from Rs.24 mn in FY14. With ~15 ANDAs pending for approval, APL plans to file 12-15 ANDAs in FY18E. We
estimate US sales at $40 mn and $52 mn in FY18E and FY19E respectively from $27.6 mn and $2 mn in FY17 and FY16
respectively.
APLs long-term fundamentals continue to remain healthy driven by strong traction in the US business (post USFDA
clearance to its Dahej unit) and above average industry growth in its domestic business. Its sales, EBITDA and PAT
witnessed 24%, 37% and 44% CAGR respectively through FY12-17 owing to strong growth in its domestic formulation
business (22% CAGR) and healthy growth in exports (21% CAGR). We expect overall sales to clock 9% CAGR over FY17-
19E with EBITDA margin at 30-31% and return ratios to remain healthy (RoCE and RoE seen at 30% and 23% in
FY19E). We believe that the current valuation (P/E of 25x FY18E and 20.5x FY19E EPS) offers an attractive entry point.
Technical Outlook: The APL stock looks very good on the daily chart for medium-term investment. It has formed a
downward channel pattern on the daily chart and taken strong support at the lower channel line. The stock faces strong
resistance at its 200 DMA level.
Start accumulating at this level of Rs.1212.90 and on dips to Rs.1157 for medium-to-long-term investment and a
possible price target of Rs.1400+ in the next 12 months.
*******

Goodluck India Ltd


(BSE Code: 530655) (CMP: Rs.85.15) (FV: Rs.2) (TGT: Rs.120+)
Goodluck India Ltd (GIL), formerly Good Luck Steel Tubes Ltd, is an engineering product manufacturing company that
manufactures and exports a range of heavy engineered structure, transmission and distribution tower, cold drawn
welded (CDW) tubes, precision tubes, pipes, sheets and forged engineering products. It operates through three
segments: Pipe/Sheets/Structure/Auto Tubes; Engineering Goods; and Steel Products. Its Pipes/Auto
Tubes/Sheet/Structure segment includes heavy engineered structures, transmission and distribution towers, CDW
tubes, precision tubes, pipes, sheets and their scrap and by-products. Its Engineering Goods segment includes
stainless/mild/alloy steel forgings, bright bars, flanges and their scrap. Its Steel Products segment includes mild steel
ingots and runner risers. It also specializes in providing telecommunication structures, electric resistance welding
(ERW) steel tubes, ERW steel pipes and galvanized black steel tubes.
GIL posted a reasonably decent operating performance in Q1FY18, marginally topping our revenue and EBITDA
estimates. Its consolidated net revenues grew 16% YoY and 14% QoQ to Rs.3.3 bn (v/s our estimate of Rs.3.2 bn) while

A Time Communications Publication 9


EBITDA soared 52% QoQ (down 4% YoY) to Rs.265 mn (v/s our estimate of Rs.234 mn). Notably, a steep rise in the
prices of key inputs i.e. steel and zinc led to YoY decline in EBITDA. Although EBITDA margin contracted by 168 bps YoY,
it was up by 200 bps QoQ at 7.9%. The management said that the company could not pass on the entire rise in key input
prices during the quarter as some contracts were short-term in nature.
With the capitalisation of new assets, GILs interest and depreciation costs grew YoY and QoQ basis, which along with
higher tax outgo (tax write-back in Q4FY17) led to 50% YoY and 54% QoQ decline in PAT to Rs.38 mn, missing our
estimate of Rs.80 mn. Revenue from the Pipes/Steel/Structures segment grew 33% YoY and 27% QoQ to Rs.3.34 bn
while revenue from the Engineered goods segment fell 17% YoY (flat sequentially) largely due to a decline in the forging
division.
Notwithstanding these short-term headwinds, we continue to believe that GIL is well-poised to cash in on the imminent
opportunities in key areas like infrastructure, railways and solar power sectors going forward. We believe that by
shifting focus to value-added products will boost profitability and better utilisation will boost revenue. Stability in the
prices of key inputs will aid margin growth.
Despite 16% YoY rise in
MID-CAP TWINS
revenues, GILs EBITDA fell
A Performance Review
4% YoY due to a steep rise in
the prices of key inputs (as a Have a look at the grand success story of Mid-Cap Twins launched on 1st August 2016
percentage of sales) which Sr. Scrip Name Recomm. Recomm. Highest % Gain
rose 20% YoY to reach 73.4% No. Date Price (Rs.) since (Rs.)
of sales compared to 70.8% 1 Mafatlal Industries 01-08-16 332.85 374.40 12
in Q1FY17. As per the 2 The Great Eastern Shipping Co. 01-08-16 335.35 477 42
management, the GST roll- 3 India Cements 01-09-16 149.85 226 51
out resulted in lower off-take
4 Tata Global Beverages 01-09-16 140.10 203 45
in June 2017 and the trend
was felt in July and August 5 Ajmera Realty & Infra India 01-10-16 137.00 252.20 84
2017 as well, which will have 6 Transpek Industry 01-10-16 447.00 1269 184
a detrimental effect in 7 Greaves Cotton 01-11-16 138.55 178 28
Q2FY18E. However, with 8 APM Industries 01-11-16
normalisation in steel prices
67.10 76.85 15
and expected pick-up in 9 OCL India 01-12-16 809.45 1319.40 63
volume, we expect a better 10 Prism Cement 01-12-16 93.25 129.80 39
performance in H2FY18E. 11 Mahindra CIE Automotive 01-01-17 182.50 260.35 43
Looking ahead, we believe 12 Swan Energy 01-01-17 154.10 203.45 32
that stability in the prices of 13 Hindalco Industries 01-02-17 191.55 244.80 28
key inputs will aid GIL to
14 Century Textiles & Industries 01-02-17 856.50 1291.50 51
sustain margin growth. We
expect GIL to cash in on the 15 McLeod Russel India 01-03-17 171.75 196.25 14
imminent opportunities in 16 Sonata Software 01-03-17 191.00 195 2
the Engineering/ Structure 17 ACC 01-04-17 1446.15 1842 27
and Precision Tubes
18 Walchandnagar Industries 01-04-17 142.25 191.80 35
segments led by increased
thrust of the government 19 Oriental Veneer Products 01-05-17 222.30 401 80
towards infrastructure 20 Tata Steel 01-05-17 448.85 640 43
development. Thus Mid-Cap Twins has delivered excellent results since its launch within 10 months with
Technical Outlook: The GIL majority of stocks gaining over 30%.
stock looks very good on the Next edition of Mid-Cap Twins will be released on 1st October 2017.
daily chart for medium-term
investment. It has formed a Attractively priced at Rs.2000 per month, Rs.11000 half yearly and Rs.20,000 annually,
triple bottom pattern on the Mid-cap Twins will be available both as print edition or online delivery.
daily chart. On crossing
Rs.100 with good volumes, the stock could move towards Rs.120. The stock faces strong resistance of its 200 DMA level.
Start accumulating at this level of Rs.85.15 and on dips to Rs.70 for medium-to-long-term investment and a possible
price target of Rs.120+ in the next 12 months.

A Time Communications Publication 10


MARKET OUTLOOK

Nifty in decisive range of 9950-10050


By Rohan Nalavade
Last week, the markets witnessed profit-booking at the higher levels. In the September series, the markets witnessed a
250-300 points rally on the Nifty from 9857 to 10170. Now, 9950 on a closing basis is a very important support level for
the market and provides a buying opportunity. Uptrend will resume above 10050 and buying volumes will be seen for
10100-10150 levels. If 9950 is broken, fresh selling could drag the Nifty to 9820.
September F&O series expire this week. This week is also very important as the weekly and monthly candles will be
formed. Geopolitical tension is affecting markets the world over and once these issues are resolved, the markets will
cheer.
Overall, the bull trend is intact for 10800-11300 levels. Therefore, every decline in the market will be used as an
opportunity to accumulate. The Q2 earnings season will begin next month. Diwali festival is also in October and usually,
the markets cheer during this season. So no major correction is on the card. Minor dips may be seen, which are good for
the markets. Therefore, buy good long-term stocks on dips.
Among stocks,
Central Depository Services looks good at Rs.364 for upside levels of Rs.376-385-400 (SL: Rs.350)
Bharat Heavy Electricals looks good at Rs.129 for upside levels of Rs.140-155 (SL: Rs.123)

MARKET REVIEW

Market descends on global worries


By Devendra A Singh
The Sensex tanked 350.17 points to settle at 31922.44 while the Nifty closed at 9964.40 losing 121 points for the week
ending Friday, 22 September 2017.
On macro-economic data, Indias April-June 2017 current account deficit (CAD) widened to its highest in four years as
imports surged but strong capital inflows comfortably financed the gap. Exports grew 10.29%, the highest in the last
four months, to $23.81 billion in August 2017. CAD widened to 2.4% of the countrys GDP or $14.3 billion as imports
pushed the trade deficit to $41.2 billion from $23.8 billion in the previous corresponding period.
Despite a wider current account gap, the balance of payments surplus was $11.4 billion in April-June 2017 v/s $6.97
billion a year ago, helped by strong dollar inflows that boosted the rupee 0.43% during the quarter.
Indias capital surplus, which includes FDI and portfolio inflows, stood at $25.4 billion v/s $7.18 billion surplus a year
ago.
Indias gold imports recorded a three-fold jump to $15.24 billion during April-August 2017. In August 2017, gold
imports rose to $1.88 billion from $1.11 billion in August 2016. The surge in gold imports last month contributed to the
widening of trade deficit to $11.64 billion as against $7.7 billion in August 2016.
Indias forex reserves surged by $2.604 billion to reach an all-time high of $400.726 billion in the week ended 8
September 2017. Foreign currency assets (FCAs), a major component of the overall reserves, grew $2.568 billion to
$376.209 billion last week.
Gold reserves remained unchanged at $20.691 billion. The
special drawing rights (SDRs) with the International Free 2-day trial of Live Market Intra-day Calls
Monetary Fund (IMF) rose by $14.2 million to $1.520 A running commentary of intra-day trading
billion. The countrys reserve position with the IMF also recommendations with buy/sell levels, targets, stop loss
rose by $21.4 million to $2.304 billion. on your mobile every trading day of the moth along with
According to HSBC, India is likely to overtake Japan and pre-market notes via email for Rs.4000 per month.
Germany to become the third largest economy in the next Contact Money Times on 022-22616970 or
10 years in nominal dollar terms and the transition will moneytimes.support@gmail.com to register for a free trial.
happen even earlier on a PPP (purchasing power parity)
basis. But it needs to be consistent in the reforms and focus more on the social sector.

A Time Communications Publication 11


Social capital is insufficient in the country and spending on aspects like health and education is not just desirable for
Indias own sake but is also central to economic growth and political stability, it said.
Its estimates show India will be a $7 trillion economy in 2028 as compared to less than $6 trillion and $5 trillion for
Germany and Japan, respectively.
Currently, Indias GDP is around $2.3 trillion (FY17). It stands at the fifth spot in global rankings. It said that the growth
rate which will be lower in FY18 as compared to 7.1% in FY17 due to the introduction of GST but will recover from next
year in a sustainable fashion.
India will continue to be a services-oriented economy but needs to pay extra attention to manufacturing and farm
sectors as well, it said adding that it would be desirable to maintain the contribution of manufacturing, agriculture and
services at the current levels.
On the US front, the US Federal concluded its two-day monetary policy meet on Wednesday, 20 September 2017, and
kept the interest rates unchanged. The Fed stated that it will begin rolling off its $4.5 trillion balance sheet most of which
consists of the Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities in October 2017. Higher US interest rates will attract foreign
investments from emerging markets to USA.
Key index advanced on Monday, 18 September 2017, on buying by traders. The Sensex was up 151.15 points (+0.47%)
to close at 32423.76.
Key index climbed on Tuesday, 19 September 2017, on extended buying. The Sensex was up 21.39 points (+0.07%) to
settle at 32402.37.
Key index edged lower on Wednesday, 20 September 2017. The Sensex was down 1.86 points (-0.01%) to close at
32400.51.
Key index fell on Thursday, 21 September 2017, on selling. The Sensex was down 30.47 points (-0.09) to close at
32370.04.
Key index tumbled on Friday, 22 September 2017, on correction. The Sensex plunged 447.60 points (-1.38%) to close at
31.922.44.
Events like national and global macro-economic figures will dictate the movement of the global markets and influence
investor sentiment in the near future.
The September 2017 F&O contracts expire on Thursday, 28 September 2017.
On the US front, US Q2 GDP data is scheduled for release on Thursday, 28 September 2017.
On the China front, Chinas Manufacturing PMI data for September 2017 is scheduled to be out on Friday, 29 September
2017.

DIVIDEND DARLING
By Laxmikant Bhole
Amidst the increasing geo-political tension with North REVIEW
Koreas back to back missile tests over Japan last week, Banco Products (India) recommended at Rs.206 on 28
the Nifty managed to recover and bounce back to record August 2017, hit a high of Rs.227 last week fetching 10%
a new high. Analysts have mixed views. While some are returns within a month.
bullish, others are cautious in view of the geo-political Uflex recommended at Rs.387 on 14 August 2017, hit a
tension and the US Federals outcome. FIIs and DIIs are high of Rs.460 last week fetching 19% returns within a
supporting the Indian markets now and a lower dollar month a half.
index is also a positive. Volatility in the market, DCM Shriram recommended at Rs.368 on 12 June 2017,
however, is not ruled out. hit a high of Rs.470 last week fetching 28% returns in over 3
months.
Investors seek high returns on investments with the
majority focusing on capital appreciation. High dividend Marathon Nextgen Realty recommended at Rs.265 on 10
yield stocks can, therefore, be considered a safe haven April 2017, hit a high of Rs.420 last week fetching 58%
returns in over 5 months.
for investors, particularly in volatile and uncertain
market conditions. Many PSUs have huge cash reserves Panasonic Carbon India Company recommended at
and the government wants them to shell out higher Rs.440 on 27 March 2017, hit a high of Rs.604 last week
fetching 37% returns in 6 months.
dividends for good cash gains in the government
treasury, which in turn will also benefit retail investors.

A Time Communications Publication 12


Featured below are ten such quality stocks with high dividend yields. Although they might be quoting at high levels now,
investors can track them and buy them at the right price in a correction. My recommendations are based on the past
performance in terms of dividend yield and dividend payout.
Latest Dividend Yield % at share prices
Scrip Name CMP (Rs.)
Dividend (%) 52-wk high 52-wk low CMP
Hindustan Zinc 292.9 1470 14.41 8.82 10.4
LEEL 280.35 215 12.94 6.32 7.67
Coal India 253.8 199 5.69 8.52 7.84
HPCL 438.6 300 6.09 11.83 6.84
BPCL 492 310 5.68 8.33 6.30
Vedanta 307.9 1945 5.81 12.33 6.32
PNB Gilts 49.3 25 1.80 10.04 5.07
OFSS 3502.65 3400 4.16 6.05 9.71
Chennai Petroleum 415.4 210 4.50 9.27 5.06
NMDC 122.05 515 3.38 5.22 4.22

1) Hindustan Zinc Ltd (HZL) (BSE Code: 500188): In Q1FY18, HZLs EBITDA zoomed 111% YoY to Rs.2554 crore
driven by 85% growth in mine production and 35% growth in LME for zinc. Mine development is progressing well
and HZL is aggressively expanding its production capacity. HZL has paid special dividends over the last two years
and even if does not continue this trend next year, its fundamentals are sound. A safe buy.
2) Leel Electricals (LEEL) (BSE Code: 517518): LEEL, formerly Lloyd Electronics & Engineering, manufactures
consumer electrical equipments such as split/window and inverter air conditioners. It is a market leader with strong
brand identity and healthy financials. Its small equity capital with strong promoter holding of 56% boosts the
confidence of investors. During Q1FY18, PAT soared 48% QoQ to Rs.33.48 crore while its EPS rose to Rs.8.32. LEEL
declared a special dividend this time after selling its consumer durable business, which also implies that it may not
pay a special dividend next year. However, considering its fundamentals, LEEL is a worthy buy even from the capital
appreciation perspective.
3) Coal India Ltd (CIL) (BSE Code: 533278): CIL is a Maharatna PSU and the largest coal producer in the world. Its
Q1FY18 results were mixed with PAT of Rs.2351 crore. CIL is a cash rich company with reserves of over Rs.18300
crore and has an excellent dividend track record.
4) Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL) (BSE Code: 500104): HPCL is a Navratna oil marketing PSU and
also a Forbes 2000 and Global Fortune 500 company. It owns and operates two major refineries - one in Mumbai
(west coast) and the other in Visakhapatanam (east coast) with total capacity of 14.8 MMTPA. It has a healthy
balance sheet with good history of rewarding shareholders.
5) Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL) (BSE Code: 500547): Like HPCL, BPCL is also a Navratna oil
marketing PSU under the Ministry of Petroleum. Its strong balance sheet, professionally managed company and
good dividend track record makes it an attractive buy.
6) Vedanta Ltd (BSE Code: 500295): Vedanta is a diversified natural resources company that produces copper,
aluminum, zinc, lead, silver, iron ore and oil & gas. It is also in the process of developing a commercial power
generation business. During Q1FY18, PAT zoomed to Rs.2270 crore from Rs.615 crore in Q1FY17 on higher metal
prices and higher oil output. It reduced its total debt by Rs.9000 crore in the last four months. Its pedigree
management, growing mining output and limited downside makes this stock an attractive buy. Further, dividend
announcement of Rs.17.7 this year was a pleasant surprise. Keep this stock on your radar.
7) PNB Gilts Ltd (BSE Code: 532366): PNB Gilts, a subsidiary of Punjab National Bank, is Indias only listed primary
dealer of government securities. Its primary activity entails supporting government borrowing programmes via
underwriting of government securities, issuances and trade in a gamut of fixed income instruments such as
Government Securities, Treasury Bills, State Development Loans, Corporate Bonds, Interest Rate Swaps and various
money market instruments such as Certificate of Deposits, Commercial Papers, etc. Its Q1FY18 PAT more than

A Time Communications Publication 13


doubled to Rs.25 crore on QoQ basis. With limited downside and a good dividend yield at the CMP, PNB Gilts is
surely a safe bet.
8) Oracle Financial Services Software Ltd (OFSS) (BSE Code: 532466): OFSS is a software product company that
specializes in developing frameworks such as analytical infrastructure applications, financial crime analysis and
compliance management applications. Its small equity capital of Rs.42.47 crore is backed by huge reserves of
Rs.3222 crore with a debt-free status. In Q1FY18, it posted 14% higher income with 62% higher PAT of Rs.370 crore
on QoQ basis. Its strong balance sheet and excellent dividend yield makes it an attractive bet. Keep this stock on your
radar.
9) Chennai Petroleum Corporation Ltd (CPCL) (BSE Code: 500110): CPCL, formerly Madras Refineries Ltd, was
formed as a joint venture in 1965 between the GoI, AMOCO and National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) with 74%,
13% and 13% stake respectively. CPCLs primary products include LPG, Motor Spirit, Superior Kerosene, Aviation
Turbine Fuel, High Speed Diesel, Naphtha, Bitumen, Lube Base Stocks, Paraffin Wax, Fuel Oil, Hexane and
Petrochemical feedstocks. Its strong balance sheet, good dividend yield and strong parentage makes it an attractive
play. A safe bet in the long run.
10) NMDC Ltd (BSE Code: 526371): NMDC is a Navaratna PSU under the administrative control of the Ministry of Steel.
It is engaged in the exploration of minerals including iron ore, copper, rock phosphate and lime. It exhibits a strong
balance sheet with reserves of over Rs.22250 crore. With mining activities picking pace, NMDC has a bright future
and is an attractive buy.
Note: Dividend income is tax-free for investors and the actual yield will be more than what is displayed in the table since tax
gains are not disclosed. Dividend yield is based on the past dividend history of the stocks and the future yield cannot be
guaranteed. However, it is worth keeping a track of these stocks.

SECTORAL WATCH

Dyes & Pigments Industry: Paints a colourful future - II


By Dildar Singh Makani
1. Kiri Industries Ltd (KIL) (BSE Code: 532967) (CMP: Rs.392.80) (FV: Rs.10): KIL (ISO 9001:2008 certified), our
best bet of the lot, is one of the largest manufacturers and exporters of Dyes, Intermediates and Chemicals from
India and a winner of several CHEMEXCIL and GDMA performance awards. It has formed a JV with Long Sheng
(China). Its manufacturing facility for dyes is located at Baroda in Gujarat. In 2010, it acquired Germany-based
DyStar group, a global market leader in Dyes, Dye solutions, Performance Chemicals, new technologies and custom-
manufacturer of special Dyes and Pigments with a global market share of ~21%. This acquisition has changed the
dynamics of the industry, making KIL a global conglomerate and a total textile solutions provider.
For FY17, KIL posted consolidated sales of Rs.1123.2 crore v/s Rs.1022.6 crore in FY16. PBT zoomed to Rs.123.4
crore from Rs.24.8 crore while PAT (after considering profit in associate companies) jumped to Rs.266.4 crore from
Rs.195.7 crore in FY16. It posted an EPS of Rs.95.7 v/s Rs.77.6 in FY16. Diluted EPS (taking into account the
convertible warrants) was Rs.73.1 v/s Rs.61.9 in FY16. Finance cost declined significantly to Rs.8.8 crore from
Rs.73.5 crore.
During Q1FY18, PAT was higher at Rs.103.7 crore v/s Rs.81 crore in Q1FY17. Finance cost declined to Rs.1 crore
from Rs.2.8 crore in Q1FY17. It posted an EPS of Rs.37.3 v/s Rs.29.1 in Q1FY17. Its pending warrants exercisable at
Rs.363/share will add a huge amount to its huge reserves. Therefore, there is every reason to believe that the total
EPS for FY18 after conversion of warrants will be Rs.100+.
As at FY17, KILs share book value was around Rs.319.72. If the profits of Q1FY18 are added (Rs.37/share), the
actual share book value works out to over Rs.357. Post the premium from warrants, the share book value will swell
further. Considering the business outlook, the earnings potential and reserves, the intrinsic worth of the share
works out to nearly Rs.1000.
KIL is likely to become debt-free by Q2FY18. Apart from mergers and acquisitions, it has huge expansion plans. The
industry P/E is around 10.6x and there is every possibility for the stock to cross Rs.600 within 6 months. In fact, the
stock has the potential to double within a year.
2. Asahi Songwong Colors Ltd (ASCL) (BSE Code: 532853) (CMP: Rs.302.80) (FV: Rs.10): Ahmedabad-based ASCL
manufactures pigments (basic colorants - used in inks, paints, plastics, textiles, rubber etc). It manufactures CPC
Beta Blue and Blue Crude and exports substantial production to leading MNCs around the world. Its manufacturing

A Time Communications Publication 14


facilities are situated at Vadodara with an installed capacity of 11,400 TPA. It intends to add additional products to
its basket. During FY17, it set up a 128 KW solar plant for captive use.
ASCL was promoted by Mrs. Paru M. Jaykrishna, ex-President of Gujarat Chamber of Commerce and Industry (GCCI).
As she also promoted Bodal Chemicals, ASCL can be stated to be an associate of that company.
For FY17, ASCL posted sales of Rs.257.8 crore (Rs.223.9 crore in FY16) with PAT of Rs.25 crore v/s Rs.21 crore in
FY16. Its EPS was Rs.20.4 v/s Rs.17.1 in FY16. Interest cost fell to Rs.2.8 crore from Rs.4.5 crore, which indicates that
long-term debts are being paid off. It paid 30% dividend for FY17.
With an equity capital of Rs.12.3 crore and reserves of Rs.144.3 crore, ASCLs share book value works out to
Rs.127.60. The stock is available at a P/E of around 15.5x. Considering its affiliation to Bodal Chemicals and the
demand for its product and its small capital, this stock can be bought for a decent appreciation.
The promoters hold 65.28% of the equity capital, which leaves 34.72% with the investing public of which 7.05%
stake is held by non-promoter foreign companies, 1.04% by NRIs and around 3% by bodies corporate.
The management is scheduled to meet on 12 September 2017, to consider the unaudited figures for Q1FY18. As the
company has a small equity capital, any good news can lead to a spike in prices.
3. Meghmani Organics Ltd (MOL) (BSE Code: 532865) (CMP: Rs.78.50) (FV: Re.1): MOL, established in 1986 to
produce Phthalocynine Green 7 at Vatva, is one of the worlds largest producers of Pigment Blue and a leading
producer of Pigment Green. It is also one of the largest producers of pesticides in India. In 1995, it started
manufacturing Agrochemicals at its Chharodi Plant. To expand its range of Agrochemical products, it acquired
another plant at Ankleshwar in 2003. Today, it has 7 plants in Gujarat with overseas sales offices in Belgium, China
and USA. Its warehouses are located at Belgium, Uruguay, China, Russia, Germany, USA and Colombia.
MOL has sound fundamentals, outstanding export performance, strong presence in the domestic market and a
focused management team. Its top-line has grown at 17% CAGR while bottom-line has grown at 10% CAGR over the
last 3 years. More than 80% of its pigment products and over 50% of its pesticides products are exported. From its 4
multi-functional production facilities in Gujarat, 3 are ISO 9001-2000 certified. Its production facilities are
strategically located with high accessibility and close proximity to its sources of raw material.
MOL intends to spend ~Rs.5400 crore to set up 3 plants over the next 3-4 year, for which work has already
commenced. It expects robust performance in the next few years both in terms of revenue and profitability.
During Q1FY18, MOL posted consolidated revenue of Rs.421.2 crore v/s Rs.354.6 crore in Q1FY17. PAT zoomed to
Rs.43.3 crore from Rs.27.9 crore fetching an EPS of Rs.1.3 v/s Re.0.7 in Q1FY17 (FV: Re.1). The EPS for FY17 was
Rs.3. 5, which indicates that the company could notch an EPS of Rs.8+ for FY18. A conservative P/E of 17.07x could
easily take its share price to Rs.160+. The agro chemical business attracts a much higher P/E multiple.
4. Sudarshan Chemicals Industries Ltd
(SCIL) (BSE Code: 506655) (CMP:
Rs.384.10) (FV: Rs.2): SCIL is the FOR WEEKLY GAINS
largest pigment producer in India and a
prominent player in the global markets Fast...FocusedFirst
for over 60 years. Its products find
application in paints, plastics, inks, Fresh One Up Trend Weekly
cosmetics, textile, etc. It offers a A product designed for short-term trading singling out one stock
comprehensive range of general purpose to focus upon.
grades, high performance and effect Fresh One Up Trend Weekly (formerly Power of RS Weekly) will
pigments. Its operations are spread identify the stop loss, buy price range and profit booking levels
across 85 countries. It has two along with its relative strength, weekly reversal value and the start
date of the trend or the turndown exit signals. This
production facilities at Roha and Mahad
recommendation will be followed up in the subsequent week with
in Maharashtra and a full-fledged R&D the revised levels for each trading parameter.
Centre at Sutarwadi, near Pune. Its sales
offices are located in India, Netherlands, Subscription: Rs.2000 per month or Rs.18000 per annum
Available via email
USA and China. Its manpower of around
For a free trial call us on 022-22616970 or email at
2,000 employees coupled with 170 moneytimes.support@gmail.com
channel partners globally ensures high
level of service and quality.

A Time Communications Publication 15


SCIL has launched various products for the cosmetic and personal healthcare segments. Last year, it commissioned a
cogeneration plant at Roha, which made its Roha facility self-reliant in power. SCIL also operates in the agro
chemicals segment.
SCIL has an equity capital of Rs.13.8 crore backed by a revenue reserve. Its share book value is Rs.57. It paid a
dividend of Rs.3.5 (175%) per share. Its D/E ratio is restricted to 1.4x.
SCIL has huge on-going expansions. It is a sellers-market now due to the heavy restriction imposed by the Chinese
government and SCILs products have a ready market across 85+ countries. Hence, volumes are bound to surge.
This, along with rising margins should prove healthy for SCIL. The stock may rise 40-50% in the next one year.
Note: There are a few more companies in this industry which could not be covered due to space constraints. The list includes
some noteworthy companies such as IG Petrochemicals, Bhageria Industries, Shree Pushkar Chemicals & Fertilisers.
The fact remains that the industry is set to make rapid strides in the next 4-5 years and investors will do well if they take
calculated decisions.

STOCK BUZZ
By Subramanian Mahadevan

Elecon Engineering Company Ltd: Powerful gear!


(BSE Code: 505700) (CMP: Rs.57.45) (FV: Rs.2)
Established in 1951, Gujarat-based Elecon Engineering Company Ltd (Elecon) is one of the largest Power Transmission
Equipment (PTE) and Material Handling Equipment (MHE) manufacturers in India. It supplies hi-tech equipment to core
sectors such as steel, sugar, power, fertilizers, cement, coal, lignite and iron ore mines with 30% market share in the PTE
segment. Although its MHE segment share in terms of revenue declined to 36% in FY16 from 42.4% in FY13, its Q3FY17
order book reflected 43.8% share. Also, it recently obtained an order worth Rs.130 crore in the Chemical sector. Its MHE
business, which is executed through a group company - Elecon EPC, has been merged with Elecon to derive economies of
scale and financial benefits. This segment may witness strong traction backed by government initiatives for recovery in
the core sectors of the economy.
Elecons PTE business has been performing well with an order book of Rs.706 crore and operational efficiency. Its
operating margins have improved considerably from 8.3% in FY13 to 13.4% in FY16. The major contributor in its order
book was an order worth Rs.530 crore received in the marine defence space, which includes orders worth Rs.300 crore
from Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders for supplying marine gearboxes.
Stalled projects, tightening cash flows, high interest rates and the GST roll-out have plagued several core sectors of the
economy in the last few years. However, the future prospects appear bright for both the MHE and PTE businesses.
Q1FY18 was a weak quarter for Elecon due to customer-specific issues but the company should get back on track by the
end of FY18. Considering its five decade experience and expertise, visionary management, strong dividend yield, good
order flows, manageable debt, decent book value (Rs.65/share) and potential FY19 EPS of Rs.14+, Elecon is an excellent
buy for multibagger returns in the long-term.

STOCK ANALYSIS

Bharat Bijlee Ltd REVIEW


(BSE Code: 503960) (CMP: Rs.1141.75) (FV: Rs.10) Tourism Finance Corporation of India
By Rahul Sharma recommended at Rs.123.05 on 4 September
2017, hit a high of Rs.176.2 last week fetching
Incorporated in 1946 under the leadership of Mr. Prakash Mehta, 43% returns in just 3 weeks!
Chairman, Bharat Bijlee Ltd (BBL) is a multiproduct, multi-
Rain Industries recommended at Rs.138 on 21
divisional organization that operates primarily in two business August 2017, hit a high of Rs.189 last week
segments - Power systems (56% of revenue) and Industrial fetching 37% returns within a month!
systems (44% of revenue). Other business segments include
Transformers, Projects, Electric Motors, Elevator Systems and Drives & Automation.
BBL is a pioneer in electrical engineering in India and is one of the most trusted names in the industry today. It is
primarily focused on manufacturing Transformers, which constitute a major chunk of sales followed by Electrical

A Time Communications Publication 16


Motors. Its manufacturing facilities are located across a 1,93,000 sq.mts. campus, with a working area of ~50,000 sq.mts.
in Airoli (Navi Mumbai).
With an extensive sales and service network across India, BBL caters to a spectrum of industries such as Power,
Refineries, Steel, Cement, Railways, Machinery, Construction and Textiles. It also undertakes turnkey projects
(switchyards) and is well positioned to provide complete concept to commissioning services. It also serves overseas
markets.
Its product range for Transformers includes sub-station transformers, generator transformers, auxiliary transformer
and 132/25 single phase traction transformers. Its project division undertakes design, engineering, supply, installation,
testing and commissioning of turnkey projects such as outdoor EHV & HV switchyards up to and including 220 KV;
indoor sub-stations, overhead and underground distribution systems, industrial electrification for lighting and power
distribution; power system study; illumination systems; power evacuation systems for power projects; detailed system
engineering; vendor assessment; procurement; inspection and dispatch; installation, testing and commissioning.
Thrust on rural electrification, renewable Financials: (Rs. in mn)
energy and decentralized distributed generation Particulars FY17 FY16 YoY (%) FY15 FY14 FY13
(DDG) will inter-alia boost the demand for
electricity in the country. The governments Total Income 6904 6604 5% 6291 5046 5600
mission of Electricity for all by 2019 will drive EBITDA 460 382 20% (25) 106 149
the demand for power and capital goods sector. PBT 201 74 172% (344) (134) (82)
Most of the investments in the power sector are PAT 196 72 172% (341) (113) (49)
expected to happen on the transmission side of EPS (Rs.) 34.7 12.7 173% -60.3 -20 -8.6
the power business, which is a positive for BBL.
BBL is a leading player in the transformer segment with strong brand recognition in the transformer and motor
manufacturing business. It holds stake in Siemens, HDFC, ICICI, etc, the market value of which is ~Rs.390 crore. BBL has
a favorable liquidity position and capital structure. It has a plant in Airoli and a land parcel of 20,00,000 sq.ft., the market
value of which is over Rs.1000 crore.
For FY17, BBLs revenues grew 5% to Rs.6904 mn from Rs.6604 mn in FY16, EBITDA climbed 20% to Rs.460 mn from
Rs.382 mn in FY16 and PAT zoomed 172% to Rs.196 mn from Rs.72 mn in FY16. Over the last five years, revenues and
EBITDA have grown at a CAGR of 5% and 32% respectively. Despite posting negative results for Q1FY18, BBL is
expected to perform well going forward.
At the CMP of Rs.1141.75, the stock trades at a P/E of 33.7x on its EPS (TTM) of Rs.32. The stock is available at a
discount if we compare it to the P/E multiples of S&P BSE Mid-Cap (40.7x) and Nifty Mid-Cap 150 (45.3x). Therefore, we
recommend this stock for 2x returns in the next 12-18 months.

EXPERT EYE
By Vihari

Tanla Solutions Ltd: Ringing gains


(BSE Code: 532790) (CMP: Rs.31.85) (FV: Re.1)
Incorporated in 1999, Tanla Solutions Ltd (TSL) is an end-to-end solutions provider catering to customers worldwide in
various sectors such as telecom infrastructure, telecom services (products and custom development), offshore software
development and maintenance sectors. It employs 300+ telecom professionals and focuses on integrated solutions and
products for the wireless world. It provides telecom solutions to handset manufacturers; media companies; mobile
network operators; content aggregators and independent software vendors (ISVs). Its solutions include Mobile
Payments; Voice; Application/ Content Licensing and Video/ Multimedia Messaging Service (MMS). Its core operations
include Telecom Infrastructure Solutions.
TSL hit the capital market in December 2006 through its IPO priced at Rs.265 on Rs.2 paid-up equity share. Its face value
was reduced further to Re.1. TSL is the first listed mobile VAS (value added services) company in Asia and the first
Indian firm to deploy short messaging service centres (SMSC) with over 50% market share and 30 carrier partnerships
across the VAS eco system. It has 100+ customers in 32 countries across the value chain. It has valued partnerships with
the largest carriers, OEMs and enterprises.
TSLs wholly-owned subsidiaries (WOS) include Tanla Solutions (UK) Ltd, Tanla Mobile Asia Pacic Pte. Ltd and Tanla
Mobile Pvt Ltd. Other subsidiaries include Tanla Mobile Middle East FZ-LLC (UAE), Tanla Mobile Ireland Pvt Ltd and

A Time Communications Publication 17


Tanla Mobile South Africa Proprietary. Tanla Solutions (UK) Ltd has a WOS - Tanla Mobile (previously known as
Mobizar) which provides aggregator services to all the major mobile network operators in UK.
TSL specialises in providing SS7 (Signalling System 7) messaging infrastructure software products including SMSCs, high
density media servers (HDMSs), optimal routing solutions, welcome roamers, voice mail servers and caller ring back
tone servers. It also offers messaging applications and billing services (aggregator services) and offshore services
including software development, infrastructure management services and technical support services. It provides
telecom-signalling products to operators of mobile communication networks and aggregator services to content
providers in connecting mobile operators.
TSLs plans for the year ahead include to grow the market share in the domestic A2P Messaging market as well as
extending its footprint to key international markets where it has strong relationships. This will result in higher
realization per transaction.
TSLs Cloud Communications platform is also a key focus area going forward as it aims to evolve into a single Application
Program Interface (API) that empowers global businesses in their communication needs, providing them the ability to
embed intuitive communication with their applications.
For FY17, TSLs net profit zoomed 243% to Rs.40.9 crore on 34% higher sales of Rs.579.3 crore fetching an EPS of Rs.3.8
(cash EPS: Rs.5.6). TSL has reassessed its depreciation policy based on the life of its assets. Hence, the depreciation cost
was Rs.19.6 crore in FY17 and a dividend of 25% was paid. During Q1FY18, although PBT fell 19% to Rs.4.7 crore, net
profit rose to Rs.11.9 crore on deferred tax reversal of Rs.7.8 crore. Its EPS was Re.0.44 and with the reversal, it works
out to Rs.1.1. PAT was affected due to higher provision for depreciation of Rs.11.9 crore v/s Rs.6.6 crore in Q1FY17.
TSL is a debt-free company. With an equity capital of Rs.10.8 crore and reserves of Rs.645.5 crore, its share book value
works out to Rs.61. The value of its gross block is Rs.515 crore. Cash in hand is Rs.120 crore whereas loans/advances
given are Rs.22 crore. The current ratio works out to 1.8:1. The promoters hold 30.1% (post the allotment of shares on
conversion of warrants) of the equity capital, Foreign bodies hold 3.9% and PCBs hold 9.3%, which leaves 56.7% stake
with the investing public.
In FY14, the management decided to move
away from a high capex and long gestation What TF+ subscribers say:
business to a more B2C transactional one. It
decided to de-risk from lumpy concentrated Think Investment Think TECHNO FUNDA PLUS
revenue sources to a more diversified and
margin enhancing clientele. TSL partnered Techno Funda Plus is a superior version of the Techno Funda
some major telecom players like Vodafone to column that has recorded near 90% success since launch.
provide messaging services. It currently has a Every week, Techno Funda Plus identifies three fundamentally
60% market share in the A2P messaging sound and technically strong stocks that can yield handsome
segment. returns against their peers in the short-to-medium-term.
TSL is in the process of transforming itself Most of our recommendations have fetched excellent returns to
into a complete enterprise cloud our subscribers. Of the 156 stocks recommended between 11
communication service provider for January 2016 and 2 January 2017 (52 weeks), we booked profit
messaging, voice and video. Its cloud in 125 stocks, 27 triggered the stop loss while 4 are still open
communications platform has been selected and are in nominal red.
by a leading Mobile Operator to deliver
services to enterprises in India. With offices in Of the 102 stocks recommended between 9 January 2017 and
Hyderabad, London, Singapore, Helsinki and 28 August 2017 (34 weeks), we booked 7-37% profit in 72
Dubai, TSL has begun furthering its expansion stocks, 19 triggered the stop loss of 2-12% while 11 are still
open.
plans on a global scale. Besides acquiring a
UK-based telecom services company, an If you want to earn like this,
Indian software development company and subscribe to TECHNO FUNDA PLUS today!
most recently a Finnish mobile payments
company - Open bit, TSL is actively bolstering For more details, contact Money Times on
its core Mobile technology portfolio by 022-22616970/22654805 or moneytimes.support@gmail.com.
extending its focus to include mobile
Subscription Rate: 1 month: Rs.2500; 3 months: Rs.6000;
payments, rights management, social gaming 6 months: Rs.11000; 1 year: Rs.18000.
and application development services.

A Time Communications Publication 18


The telecom sector continues to be at the epicentre of its growth, innovation and disruption for virtually any industry.
Mobile devices and related broadband connectivity are the key drivers in driving the momentum around some key
trends such as video streaming, Internet of Things (IoT) and mobile payments.
With around 3.6 billion people across Asia using mobile phones, the region is already advancing rapidly in exploiting
mobile data/wireless broadband services. In developed markets like USA, mobile subscriber growth has slowed due to
high penetration levels but mobile data use remains strong in line with the fast development of LTE networks and the
high take-up of smartphones. The European mobile market also has reached such high penetration levels that there is
little room for further growth in the voice sector.
TSL is expected to notch an EPS of Rs.4-4.5 in FY18 and Rs.5.5 in FY19. At the CMP of Rs.31.85, the stock trades at a P/E
of 7.9x on FY18E and 5.7x on FY19E earnings. A reasonable P/E of 12x on FY18E earnings will take its share price to
Rs.48 in the medium-term and Rs.66 thereafter thus fetching 51-107% returns in the medium-to-long-term.

BULLS EYE

NBCC (India) Ltd


(BSE Code: 534309) (CMP: Rs.216.65) (FV: Rs.2)
By Pratit Nayan Patel
Company Background: Promoted as a PSU in 1960 as National Buildings Construction Corporation Ltd, NBCC (India)
Ltd is a blue-chip GoI recognised Navratna Enterprise under the Ministry of Urban Development. It operates through
three segments - Project Management Consultancy (PMC); Real Estate Development; and EPC Contracting.
NBCCs PMC projects contribute ~85% of its total revenue. PMC is the companys core strength and includes projects
related to Roads, Hospitals & Medical Colleges, Institutions, Border fencing, Offices, Airports, Bridges, Industrial &
Environmental Structures, etc. Its marquee clients include ESIC, Ministry of Defence, Ministry of Home Affairs (including
Security forces like CRPF, CISF, NSG, BSF), Ministry of External Affairs, MoUD, Ministry of Commerce and Industry,
Ministry of Corporate Affairs, Ministry of Finance, Haryana Urban Infrastructure Development Board, IIT Roorkee, IIT
Kharagpur, IIT Patna, SVNIT, etc.
Financials: NBCC has an equity capital of Rs.180 crore supported by huge reserves of Rs.1513.84 crore (8x its equity)
and is a debt-free company. The promoters (GoI) hold 75% of the equity capital, LIC holds 7.28%, Mutual Funds hold
0.77% and FPIs hold 4.75%, which leaves 12.2% stake with the investing public and non-institutions.
For FY17, NBCCs sales grew 8% to
Rs.6312.9 crore from Rs.5838.27 crore in Performance Review: (Rs. in crore)
FY16. Net profit climbed 14% to Rs.354.51 Particulars Q1FY18 Q4FY17 Q1FY17 FY17 FY16
crore from Rs.311.13 crore in FY16. Its EPS Total Income 1556.17 2356.15 1273.27 6312.90 5838.27
was Rs.3.94. During Q1FY18, its net profit
jumped 30% to Rs.61.27 crore on 22% Consumption of Raw 2.75 4.16 2.30 10.01 232.63
higher income of Rs.1556.17 crore fetching Materials
an EPS of Re.0.66. Increase/Decrease in -29.76 -14.08 -65.48 -152.26 -301.13
Stock
Dividend: Being a PSU, NBCC is an
investor-friendly company. It declared a Employees Cost 92.46 77.51 56.14 247.47 225.79
1:2 bonus in February 2017 and also paid Depreciation 1.28 0.72 0.61 2.61 2.23
26.5% interim and 55% final dividend for Other Expenses 1418.59 2076.66 1234.45 5797.51 5329.73
FY17. Other Income 31.38 20.84 35 87.83 129.08
Industry Overview: The Indian Interest 10.32 0.12 9.68 0.72 36.77
construction industry is a major
contributor to the countrys GDP. Hence, P/L before Tax 91.96 231.91 70.56 494.67 441.33
any improvement in the construction Tax 30.68 74.63 24.35 156.72 130.22
sector affects a number of associated Net Profit 61.27 173.88 47.10 354.51 311.13
industries such as cement, steel, Equity Share Capital 180 180 120 180 120
technology, skill-enhancement, etc. Indias
GDP grew 7.1% in FY17. Demonetisation Reserves excluding - - - 1513.84 1385.19
and GST have impacted the GDP numbers Revaluation Reserves
in the last 2-3 quarters. However, GDP is EPS (in Rs.) 0.66 1.93 0.79 3.94 5.19

A Time Communications Publication 19


likely to improve Q3FY18 onward in view of the various initiatives taken by the government such as affordable housing,
quicker approvals and other supportive policy changes like RERA, the establishment of Smart Cities, Atal mission for
rejuvenation of urban transformation and the ambitious Housing for All by 2022.
Conclusion: NBCCs order book of Rs.75000 crore is expected to touch Rs.1 lakh crore in a few months. It plans to
launch over 1,000 ready-to-move housing units this festive season in Delhi-NCR and Lucknow with prices varying from
Rs.15 lakh to 1 crore. Recently, it received a letter of intent from the Customs and Excise Department for planning,
designing and construction of office complex and residential quarters at Wadala amounting to Rs.3200 crore. It has also
secured big redevelopment projects in Delhi and is one of the front runners for the Dharavi redevelopment project.
At the CMP, NBCC trades at P/E of 52.8x. Based on its financial parameters, the NBCC stock looks quite attractive at the
current level. We are very bullish on this stock and it is our top pick in the infrastructure sector. Investors can
accumulate this stock at Rs.220-205 with a stop loss of Rs.190 for a price target of Rs.285-300 in the next 12-15 months.
The stocks 52-week high/low is Rs.228.5/133.1.

TECHNO FUNDA
By Nayan Patel
REVIEW
Mold-Tek Technologies Ltd Saurashtra Cement recommended at Rs.76 last
(BSE Code: 526263) (CMP: Rs.51.75) (FV: Rs.2) week, zoomed to Rs.89 appreciating 17% in just 1
week!
Hyderabad-based Mold-Tek Technologies Ltd (MTTL) is a
leading Engineering Services company that specializes in Damodar Industries recommended at Rs.99 on 28
providing IT, Civil, Structural and Mechanical Engineering August 2017, zoomed to Rs.120 last week
appreciating 21% within a month!
services to its clients across the globe. It has two subsidiaries
in USA CrossRoads Detailing Inc. and RMM Global Inc. It Freshtrop Fruits recommended at Rs.104 on 31 July
serves 200+ clients in varied verticals across North America, 2017, zoomed to Rs.152 last week appreciating 46%
within 2 months!
Europe, Asia Pacific and the Middle East. It helps clients cut
down design and development costs of Civil, Structural, Tamilnadu Petroproducts recommended at Rs.31
Mechanical and Plant design engineering projects by 30-40% on 13 February 2017, zoomed to Rs.75 last week
appreciating 142% in over 7 months!
and delivers technologically superior output through its in-
house software development team, quality control training
and troubleshooting facilities.
MTTL is the only listed and well-established civil engineering services company in India. It is the fastest growing
mechanical engineering services provider with core expertise in Automotive, Poles and Towers and Oil & Gas. It has
entered the most potential cloud services business and is reaping benefits in the EU and US markets. It is one of the two
silver partners of salesforce in South India and the only SKUID partner for the entire EU and Asia. With such an edge
over other outsourcing firms, its IT division has developed a client base of 100+ in just 2 years.
MTTL has an equity capital of Rs.5.41 crore supported by reserves of Rs.29.23 crore. The promoters hold 49.42% of the
equity capital, which leaves 50.58% stake with the investing public.
For FY17, MTTLs PAT declined to Rs.4.42 crore from Financial Performance: (Rs. in crore)
Rs.5.77 crore on higher sales of Rs.63.08 crore fetching
Particulars Q1FY18 Q4FY17 Q1FY17 FY17 FY16
an EPS of Rs.1.65. It reported steady numbers for Q1FY18
with 13% higher PAT at Rs.1.51 crore (up 50% QoQ) on Sales 17.52 17.66 13.88 63.08 52.92
26% higher income of Rs.17.52 crore fetching an EPS of PBT 2.09 1.24 1.76 5.67 7.74
Re.0.56. Tax 0.58 0.23 0.43 1.25 1.97
Recent Announcements: MTTL is opening a new office PAT 1.51 1.01 1.34 4.42 5.77
in Chennai. It has also expanded to a 100-seater capacity EPS (Rs.) 0.56 0.38 0.50 1.65 2.27
in Vijayawada. It is also in discussion with other structural engineering services companies in North America for
possible acquisitions/ joint ventures to enhance its operations in civil engineering. It is continuously adding large and
medium-sized clients while improving efficiencies in its production centers.
Its mechanical engineering services segment has started offering professional engineering services to industrial
equipment and commercial bus/rail coach industry segments in addition to automobile engineering services in Europe
and North America.

A Time Communications Publication 20


MTTLs IT divisions prospects are improving. While PAT in FY17 declined due to losses in the IT division, MTTL aims to
cross the breakeven point in this segment in FY18 with fixed long-term client contracts.
MTTL hopes to post better performance in near future based on the improving prospects of all its divisions. Investors
can buy this stock with a stop loss of Rs.48. On the upper side, it could zoom to Rs.63-70 levels in the medium-term.
******

Sree Rayalaseema Hi-Strength Hypo Ltd


(BSE Code: 532842) (CMP: Rs.148.55) (FV: Rs.10)
We had recommended this stock at Rs.139.30 on 17 July 2017 where-after it zoomed to Rs.154.65. We find the stock
attractive at the current level based on its excellent Q1FY18 results.
Incorporated in 2005, Kurnool-based Sree Rayalaseema Hi-Strength Hypo Ltd manufactures and sells inorganic
chemicals. It offers calcium hypochlorite, stable bleaching powder, aluminum sulphate, monochloro acetic acid,
sulphuric acid, chlorosulphonic acid, hydrochloric acid, oleum, hydrogen gas, sodium hydride and sodium methoxide. It
generates power through wind mills located in Tamil Nadu and a 10 MW thermal power plant at Gondiparla in Andhra
Pradesh. It also exports its products. Its products are used by all leading manufacturers of non-steroid anti-inflammatory
drugs, pharmaceuticals, pesticides, organic chemicals etc.
With an equity capital of Rs.15.49 crore and reserves of Rs.195.44 crore, the companys share book value works out to
Rs.137.5 and its P/BV ratio stands at just 1.09x, which is attractive. The promoters hold 57.54% of the equity capital,
which leaves 42.46% with the investing public.
On 31 March 2017, the company allotted 24,48,132 convertible warrants at Rs.98.19/warrant on preferential basis to
the promoters. These warrants will be converted into equity shares in three tranches in 1:1 ratio during FY17, FY18 and
FY19. The promoters have converted 7,74,562 warrants into equity shares in the first tranche.
For FY17, the company posted net profit of Rs.18.36 crore in FY16 Financial Performance: (Rs. in crore)
on sales of Rs.366.48 crore fetching an EPS of Rs.11.85. During the Particulars Q1FY18 Q1FY17 FY17 FY16
year, it shut down three streams of Calcium Hypochlorite plants for
Sales 119.27 94.89 366.48 363.46
scheduled maintenance. It tried to recover the loss of this turnover
PBT 5.78 4.56 14.44 25.51
from other segments. During Q1FY18, its net profit soared 66% to
Rs.5.01 crore from Rs.3.02 crore on 26% higher sales of Rs.119.27 Tax 0.77 1.54 -3.92 6.79
crore fetching an EPS of Rs.3.24. The company paid 15% dividend PAT 5.01 3.02 18.36 18.72
for FY17. EPS (in Rs.) 3.24 2.05 11.85 12.72
Currently, the stock trades at a P/E of 11.31x. Based on its financial parameters, the stock looks quite attractive at the
current level. Investors can buy this stock with a stop loss of Rs.132. On the upper side, it could zoom to Rs.175-178
levels in the short-to-medium-term and further to Rs.210+ levels in the long-term.

A Time Communications Publication 21


Incredible Returns!
Early Bird Gains now in its 15th year
A Performance Review of Vol.XIV (28th Sept 2016 - 27th Sept 2017)
Issue Date of Recomm. Highest since Gain
Scrip Name
No. Recomm. Price (Rs.) (Rs.) %
1 Tera Software 28-09-16 80.55 132.60 64.62
2 Rico Auto Industries 05-10-16 64.55 107.25 66.15
3 Steel Strips Wheels 12-10-16 752.20 956.60 27.17
4 Goldiam International 19-10-16 78.60 99.30 26.34
5 Tanla Solutions 26-10-16 43.10 66.45 54.18
6 Suryaamba Spinning Mills 02-11-16 80.65 83.55 3.60
7 Infinite Computer Solutions 09-11-16 240.65 277 15.10
8 Kovai Medical Center & Hospital 16-11-16 838.45 1480 76.52
9 Pix Transmission 23-11-16 66.95 160 138.98
10 Aarvee Denim and Exports 30-11-16 86.85 99.25 14.28
11 BCL Industries & Infrastructures 07-12-16 37.70 85.65 127.19
12 HIL 14-12-16 266.60 1274.95 378.23
13 Leel Electricals 21-12-16 259.60 340.40 31.12
14 Nitin Spinners 28-12-16 67.50 145 114.81
15 Uflex 04-01-17 277 460.35 66.19
16 Indiabulls Housing Finance 11-01-17 687.70 1323.40 92.44
17 Global Vectra Helicorp 18-01-17 116.95 183 56.48
18 L&T Technology Services 25-01-17 831.70 855 2.80
19 Gujarat Heavy Chemicals 01-02-17 276.95 279.85 1.05
20 SP Apparels 08-02-17 407 482 18.43
21 KEI Industries 15-02-17 176.05 366.80 108.35
22 Bang Overseas 22-02-17 48.90 52.40 7.16
23 Polyspin Exports 01-03-17 84.85 91 7.25
24 AYM Syntex 08-03-17 81.05 87.15 7.53
25 Hinduja Global Solutions 15-03-17 601.25 602.45 0.20
26 Cambridge Technology Enterprises 22-03-17 85.70 100.05 16.74
27 Kilburn Engineering 29-03-17 57.55 93.50 62.47
28 Winsome Textile Industries 05-04-17 77.35 128 65.48
29 Sakuma Exports 12-04-17 69.45 163 134.70
30 GNA Axles 19-04-17 217.85 325.40 49.37
31 Nandan Denim 26-04-17 119.15 162 35.96
32 Ugar Sugar Works 03-05-17 32.85 34.60 5.33
33 SMS Pharmaceuticals 10-05-17 89.80 110.25 22.77
34 Refnol Resins & Chemicals 17-05-17 44.80 49.75 11.05
35 Cosmo Films 24-05-17 396.35 448.55 13.17
36 Morganite Crucible (India) 31-05-17 824.50 1320 60.10
37 ISGEC Heavy Engineering 07-06-17 6251.15 7048.10 12.75
38 Divi's Laboratories 14-06-17 644.10 997.90 54.93
39 Welspun India 21-06-17 80.70 92.50 14.62
40 Gujarat Industries Power Company 28-06-17 109.95 147.40 34.06
41 Pincon Spirit 05-07-17 66.15 75.20 13.68
42 Vakrangee 12-07-17 449.25 520 15.75
43 Bhagyanagar India 19-07-17 25.15 36.70 45.92
44 Vippy Spinpro 26-07-17 44.70 61.60 37.81
45 Eros International Media 02-08-17 219.90 230 4.59
46 Mangalam Drugs & Organics 09-08-17 155.10 172.80 11.41

A Time Communications Publication 22


47 Sintex Plastics Technology 16-08-17 108.10 118.60 9.71
48 Deep Industries 23-08-17 210.35 243.05 15.55
49 Som Distilleries & Breweries 30-08-17 144.30 166.90 15.66
50 GeeCee Ventures 06-09-17 160.25 167.70 4.65
51 Sphere Global Services 13-09-17 49.20 48.65 -1.12
52 High Ground Enterprises 20-09-17 10.58 13.90 31.38
EBG: Steady but Sure

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A Time Communications Publication 23


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A Time Communications Publication 24

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