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T I M E S: Markets Correct
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T I M E S
A TIME COMMUNICATIONS PUBLICATION
VOL XXVI No.47 Monday, 25 September 1 October 2017 Pgs.24 Rs.18
BAZAR.COM
Stimulus needed
Stock indices may be scaling new highs but their fundamentals
may not be that supportive at least for now. Domestic as well as Now follow us on Instagram, Facebook &
foreign liquidity is adding fuel to the fire. India once had a GDP Twitter at moneytimes_1991 on a daily basis
growth of over 8-9% but one poor monsoon derailed this to get a view of the stock market and the
growth. Some stimulus was applied to ignite the growth but was happenings which many may not be aware of.
immediately withdrawn as the economy seemed getting back on
track. Today, despite the great reforms initiated by a government bereft of major scams, the GDP is still struggling
around 4-5% in quarterly readings. It appears that demonetisation did not get the desired result and hit the economy
hard. GST, another great move, created a lot of pain in implementation since Indian merchants and traders have for
centuries dealt in bills and chitthis. But this could be teething problems, which may be resolved in another four to six
quarters. However, this is a crucial time for the government to win the state polls and pave the way for 2019
Parliamentary election. The poor IIP data does not speak well of the governments plank of development in the next
general elections. The situation needs to be changed and charged. Stimulus is the only solution by way of some fruitful
government expenditure to boost consumption and consequently the demand. This alone can impart confidence to the
private sector to ignite the capex switch and get going.
A worrisome factor that the government needs to address on a war footing is the rise in the number of jobless. India
boasts of the largest under 35 population but it may also have the largest block of unemployed youth! It is thus a
greater social and political problem than an economic one. The government is aware of it but even with continuous and
chronic flogging, the development cart is not moving. Industrialists are shying from capex how can one ease the inertia
and set the ball rolling? STIMULUS is the only solution to revive the economy that is in reverse year. How and when it
will come about and how it is quantified and timed depends on the desired impact. Let the announcement of the
Stimulus package not be considered negatively. The country is on a secular uptrend and a little graceful push could help
but which must withdrawn or recalled thereafter.
The PMs meetings with his ministers and secretaries and evaluating their achievements, breakthroughs and
shortcomings may be an exercise to formulate the ensuing budget. The meeting with the czars of industry is also aimed
at easing the stimulus dose and getting the leaders to wrest the initiative in growth.
By its slow inching upwards, the market is in no way free from apprehensions. The intra-day positives and negatives
highlight the uncertainty in the minds of investors. All the market pundits can vouch that a substantial fall or correction
is ruled out. And this is the danger signal as the market has a tendency to go against the unanimity. It also has a tendency
to catch us on the wrong foot without a warning. But, dont let this scare you because India today is too large a domestic
consumption story. The macros are in great shape and the reforms initiated will lead to some remarkable results.
TRADING ON TECHNICALS
Weekly Up
Scrip Last Level Level Center Level Level Relative
Reversal Trend
Close 1 2 Point 3 4 Strength
Value Date
Weak below Demand point Demand point Supply point Supply point
HEG 990.00 865.0 880.7 974.3 1083.7 1286.7 76.9 797.8 18-08-17
HIMADRI SPECIALITY 134.50 118.0 120.8 131.7 145.5 170.2 72.1 116.7 24-08-17
HDFC 1783.00 1748.0 1755.7 1775.3 1802.7 1849.7 68.8 1772.8 24-08-17
VAKRANGEE 511.35 498.8 501.1 509.1 519.3 537.5 66.3 498.6 24-08-17
GUJARAT ALKALIES 553.50 500.0 513.8 539.7 579.4 645.1 66.0 489.0 18-08-17
*Note: Up and Down Trend are based of set of moving averages as reference point to define a trend. Close below
averages is defined as down trend. Close above averages is defined as up trend. Volatility (Up/Down) within Down
Trend can happen/ Volatility (Up/Down) within Up Trend can happen. Relative Strength (RS) is statistical
indicator. Weekly Reversal is the value of the average.
Weekly Down
Scrip Last Level Level Center Level Level Relative
Reversal Trend
Close 1 2 Point 3 4 Strength
Value Date
Demand Demand Supply Supply Strong
point point point point above
IL&FS TRANSPORTATION 75.10 69.1 73.6 76.5 78.0 79.5 32.77 77.44 08-09-17
APOLLO HOSPITALS 1035.00 974.0 1019.0 1048.0 1064.0 1077.0 33.39 1071.75 15-09-17
ECLERX SERVICES 1190.50 1080.4 1156.4 1198.2 1232.3 1240.0 33.89 1216.53 21-07-17
ZENSAR TECHNOLOGIES 751.00 710.0 738.0 753.0 766.0 768.0 34.88 779.75 15-09-17
BANK OF MAHARASHTRA 25.95 24.1 25.4 26.1 26.7 26.9 35.19 26.19 08-09-17
*Note: Up and Down Trend are based of set of moving averages as reference point to define a trend. Close below
averages is defined as down trend. Close above averages is defined as up trend. Volatility (Up/Down) within Down
Trend can happen/ Volatility (Up/Down) within Up Trend can happen.
EXIT LIST
Note: SA-Strong Above, DP-Demand Point, SP- Supply Point, SA- Strong Above
Scrip Last Close Supply Point Supply Point Supply Point Strong Above Demand Point Monthly RS
BUY LIST
Note: SA-Strong Above, DP-Demand Point, SP- Supply Point, SA- Strong Above
Scrip Last Close Demand point Demand point Demand Point Weak below Supply Point Monthly RS
GUJARAT ALKALIES & CHEMICALS 553.50 513.37 497.23 481.08 428.80 650.2 58.98
ITI 139.50 125.18 118.57 111.97 90.60 181.1 57.99
PUNTER PICKS
Note: Positional trade and exit at stop loss or target whichever is earlier. Not an intra-day trade. A delivery based trade for a possible time frame
of 1-7 trading days. Exit at first target or above.
Note: SA-Strong Above, DP-Demand Point, SP- Supply Point, SA- Strong Above, RS- Strength
Weak RS-
Scrip BSE Code Last Close Demand Point Trigger Supply point Supply point
below Strength
- - - - - - - - -
TOWER TALK
HBL Power Systems, manufacturer of standby batteries for railways, aviation and other industries including digital
control harness for navy submarines, is reporting higher volumes and rising prices. A scientific approach justifies
buying this stock.
The big rally in I G Petrochemicals has begun. Its Q1 EPS of Rs.13 is indicative of an EPS of over Rs.50 for FY18.
With industry P/E at ~21x, the stock may cross the magical price of Rs.1000 in a few months. Buy immediately.
Reliance Industries plans to expand its Jamnagar refinery from 60 MMTPA to 100 MMTPA by 2030 at an estimated
cost of $10 billion. There seems to be a big gap in the CMP and its intrinsic worth.
The J.K. Tyre & Industries stock shows signs of a big breakout. Anti-dumping duty imposed by the government will
aid its working. A strong buy.
Sona Koyo Steering Systems trades at a crazy P/E of 57x. Investors beware of bull-run pitfalls.
Indian Oil Corporation is likely to report better margins this year. An attractive buy at the current level.
Mahindra & Mahindra, which manufactures electric cars, will benefit immensely from the governments impetus to
the electric vehicle segment. It has also acquired Erkunt Traktor Sanaii (Turkey) for Rs.735 crore, which is a feather
in its cap. Buy.
With TRAI slashing internet usage charges, Bharti
Airtel and Vodafone India will witness a drastic cut For the busy investor
in profitability. It is advisable to stay away from this
sector till things become clearer.
Fresh One Up Trend Daily
Fresh One Up Trend Daily is for investors/traders who are
Indiabulls Ventures trades at a frenzy P/E of 80x.
keen to focus and gain from a single stock every
Think twice before taking a plunge. It is better to
miss an opportunity than to repent later. trading day.
Oil & Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) has made a With just one daily recommendation selected from
20 MMT oil discovery near Mumbai High. This can stocks in an uptrend, you can now book profit the same
significantly enhance its production levels in the day or carry over the trade if the target is not met. Our
next two years. An excellent long-term buy. review over the next 4 days will provide new exit levels
Hero MotoCorps JV Munjal Kiriu has set up a new while the stock is still in an uptrend.
unit at Ahmedabad to manufacture brake parts for This low risk, high return product is available for online
major automobile manufacturers. A positive for the subscription at Rs.2500 per month.
company.
Contact us on 022-22616970 or email us at
Novartis India is contemplating a buyback of its
moneytimes.suppport@gmail.com for a free trial.
shares. The stock may rise by about 12-15% within a
month.
MARKET REVIEW
DIVIDEND DARLING
By Laxmikant Bhole
Amidst the increasing geo-political tension with North REVIEW
Koreas back to back missile tests over Japan last week, Banco Products (India) recommended at Rs.206 on 28
the Nifty managed to recover and bounce back to record August 2017, hit a high of Rs.227 last week fetching 10%
a new high. Analysts have mixed views. While some are returns within a month.
bullish, others are cautious in view of the geo-political Uflex recommended at Rs.387 on 14 August 2017, hit a
tension and the US Federals outcome. FIIs and DIIs are high of Rs.460 last week fetching 19% returns within a
supporting the Indian markets now and a lower dollar month a half.
index is also a positive. Volatility in the market, DCM Shriram recommended at Rs.368 on 12 June 2017,
however, is not ruled out. hit a high of Rs.470 last week fetching 28% returns in over 3
months.
Investors seek high returns on investments with the
majority focusing on capital appreciation. High dividend Marathon Nextgen Realty recommended at Rs.265 on 10
yield stocks can, therefore, be considered a safe haven April 2017, hit a high of Rs.420 last week fetching 58%
returns in over 5 months.
for investors, particularly in volatile and uncertain
market conditions. Many PSUs have huge cash reserves Panasonic Carbon India Company recommended at
and the government wants them to shell out higher Rs.440 on 27 March 2017, hit a high of Rs.604 last week
fetching 37% returns in 6 months.
dividends for good cash gains in the government
treasury, which in turn will also benefit retail investors.
1) Hindustan Zinc Ltd (HZL) (BSE Code: 500188): In Q1FY18, HZLs EBITDA zoomed 111% YoY to Rs.2554 crore
driven by 85% growth in mine production and 35% growth in LME for zinc. Mine development is progressing well
and HZL is aggressively expanding its production capacity. HZL has paid special dividends over the last two years
and even if does not continue this trend next year, its fundamentals are sound. A safe buy.
2) Leel Electricals (LEEL) (BSE Code: 517518): LEEL, formerly Lloyd Electronics & Engineering, manufactures
consumer electrical equipments such as split/window and inverter air conditioners. It is a market leader with strong
brand identity and healthy financials. Its small equity capital with strong promoter holding of 56% boosts the
confidence of investors. During Q1FY18, PAT soared 48% QoQ to Rs.33.48 crore while its EPS rose to Rs.8.32. LEEL
declared a special dividend this time after selling its consumer durable business, which also implies that it may not
pay a special dividend next year. However, considering its fundamentals, LEEL is a worthy buy even from the capital
appreciation perspective.
3) Coal India Ltd (CIL) (BSE Code: 533278): CIL is a Maharatna PSU and the largest coal producer in the world. Its
Q1FY18 results were mixed with PAT of Rs.2351 crore. CIL is a cash rich company with reserves of over Rs.18300
crore and has an excellent dividend track record.
4) Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL) (BSE Code: 500104): HPCL is a Navratna oil marketing PSU and
also a Forbes 2000 and Global Fortune 500 company. It owns and operates two major refineries - one in Mumbai
(west coast) and the other in Visakhapatanam (east coast) with total capacity of 14.8 MMTPA. It has a healthy
balance sheet with good history of rewarding shareholders.
5) Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL) (BSE Code: 500547): Like HPCL, BPCL is also a Navratna oil
marketing PSU under the Ministry of Petroleum. Its strong balance sheet, professionally managed company and
good dividend track record makes it an attractive buy.
6) Vedanta Ltd (BSE Code: 500295): Vedanta is a diversified natural resources company that produces copper,
aluminum, zinc, lead, silver, iron ore and oil & gas. It is also in the process of developing a commercial power
generation business. During Q1FY18, PAT zoomed to Rs.2270 crore from Rs.615 crore in Q1FY17 on higher metal
prices and higher oil output. It reduced its total debt by Rs.9000 crore in the last four months. Its pedigree
management, growing mining output and limited downside makes this stock an attractive buy. Further, dividend
announcement of Rs.17.7 this year was a pleasant surprise. Keep this stock on your radar.
7) PNB Gilts Ltd (BSE Code: 532366): PNB Gilts, a subsidiary of Punjab National Bank, is Indias only listed primary
dealer of government securities. Its primary activity entails supporting government borrowing programmes via
underwriting of government securities, issuances and trade in a gamut of fixed income instruments such as
Government Securities, Treasury Bills, State Development Loans, Corporate Bonds, Interest Rate Swaps and various
money market instruments such as Certificate of Deposits, Commercial Papers, etc. Its Q1FY18 PAT more than
SECTORAL WATCH
STOCK BUZZ
By Subramanian Mahadevan
STOCK ANALYSIS
EXPERT EYE
By Vihari
BULLS EYE
TECHNO FUNDA
By Nayan Patel
REVIEW
Mold-Tek Technologies Ltd Saurashtra Cement recommended at Rs.76 last
(BSE Code: 526263) (CMP: Rs.51.75) (FV: Rs.2) week, zoomed to Rs.89 appreciating 17% in just 1
week!
Hyderabad-based Mold-Tek Technologies Ltd (MTTL) is a
leading Engineering Services company that specializes in Damodar Industries recommended at Rs.99 on 28
providing IT, Civil, Structural and Mechanical Engineering August 2017, zoomed to Rs.120 last week
appreciating 21% within a month!
services to its clients across the globe. It has two subsidiaries
in USA CrossRoads Detailing Inc. and RMM Global Inc. It Freshtrop Fruits recommended at Rs.104 on 31 July
serves 200+ clients in varied verticals across North America, 2017, zoomed to Rs.152 last week appreciating 46%
within 2 months!
Europe, Asia Pacific and the Middle East. It helps clients cut
down design and development costs of Civil, Structural, Tamilnadu Petroproducts recommended at Rs.31
Mechanical and Plant design engineering projects by 30-40% on 13 February 2017, zoomed to Rs.75 last week
appreciating 142% in over 7 months!
and delivers technologically superior output through its in-
house software development team, quality control training
and troubleshooting facilities.
MTTL is the only listed and well-established civil engineering services company in India. It is the fastest growing
mechanical engineering services provider with core expertise in Automotive, Poles and Towers and Oil & Gas. It has
entered the most potential cloud services business and is reaping benefits in the EU and US markets. It is one of the two
silver partners of salesforce in South India and the only SKUID partner for the entire EU and Asia. With such an edge
over other outsourcing firms, its IT division has developed a client base of 100+ in just 2 years.
MTTL has an equity capital of Rs.5.41 crore supported by reserves of Rs.29.23 crore. The promoters hold 49.42% of the
equity capital, which leaves 50.58% stake with the investing public.
For FY17, MTTLs PAT declined to Rs.4.42 crore from Financial Performance: (Rs. in crore)
Rs.5.77 crore on higher sales of Rs.63.08 crore fetching
Particulars Q1FY18 Q4FY17 Q1FY17 FY17 FY16
an EPS of Rs.1.65. It reported steady numbers for Q1FY18
with 13% higher PAT at Rs.1.51 crore (up 50% QoQ) on Sales 17.52 17.66 13.88 63.08 52.92
26% higher income of Rs.17.52 crore fetching an EPS of PBT 2.09 1.24 1.76 5.67 7.74
Re.0.56. Tax 0.58 0.23 0.43 1.25 1.97
Recent Announcements: MTTL is opening a new office PAT 1.51 1.01 1.34 4.42 5.77
in Chennai. It has also expanded to a 100-seater capacity EPS (Rs.) 0.56 0.38 0.50 1.65 2.27
in Vijayawada. It is also in discussion with other structural engineering services companies in North America for
possible acquisitions/ joint ventures to enhance its operations in civil engineering. It is continuously adding large and
medium-sized clients while improving efficiencies in its production centers.
Its mechanical engineering services segment has started offering professional engineering services to industrial
equipment and commercial bus/rail coach industry segments in addition to automobile engineering services in Europe
and North America.
Disclaimer: Investment recommendations made in Money Times are for information purposes only and derived from sources that are deemed to
be reliable but their accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Money Times or the analyst/writer does not accept any lia bility for the use of
this column for the buying or selling of securities. Readers of this column who buy or sell securities based on the information in this column are
solely responsible for their actions. The author, his company or his acquaintances may/may not have positions in the above mentioned scrip.
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