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中国上市保险公司2015年半年度业绩分析(2015年11月) PDF
中国上市保险公司2015年半年度业绩分析(2015年11月) PDF
中国上市保险公司2015年半年度业绩分析(2015年11月) PDF
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(
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2015
2015 2 2015
2015 3 2015
1.
2.
3.
4.
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2015 4 2015
1.
2015(GDP)29.68
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71871.8%5.1%
GDP49.5%
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8.4
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3.0
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1.5
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2015 5 2015
2.
2015
516620156152015630
100027.66%24.46%
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2015 2015 2014 2014
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4,277.22 3,350.52 27.66% 2,048.33 2,109.39 -2.89%
20151512
5500
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2015 6 2015
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2015 7 2015
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2015201320146201420156
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2015 13 2015
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20159,433
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62,465 67,156 78,718
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2015 2014 2014
2015 14 2015
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60%
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2015 2014
2015 15 2015
1.2
2015
85%
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54% 51%
58% 49%
52% 53%
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0%
2015
2015
2014
2014
2015
2014
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2014
2014
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2015 16 2015
1.3
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6% 6% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 3% 3% 4%
100% 8% 7% 8% 7% 6% 7% 7%
6% 7%
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80% 43% 43%
50% 45%
46% 56% 60%
54% 58%
57% 64% 63%
60% 64% 68% 67%
2015 17 2015
1.4
48%31%38% 31%9%7%
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64.0 63.6
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2015 2014 2014
2015 18 2015
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2015 19 2015
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2015 20 2015
3.
2015
/
40,000
31,734 32,514
30,000
18,554
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9,296 9,084
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-
600% 526%
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2015 2014
2015 21 2015
3. ()
1.
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333.58103.5%
29.483.5%15.87
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2015154.9092.9667%
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192.322015705.864.2%
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2015 22 2015
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5
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2015A12
6
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2015H32
2015 23 2015
4.
20152015
8.7%
2015 2014 2014
14.0%
12.0%
12.0% 10.3%
9.2%
10.0% 7.1%
8.0% 6.7%
5.1% 5.5% 5.3% 5.1% 5.5% 4.8% 5.5%
6.0%
4.0% 1.9% 1.2% 1.3%
2.0%
0.0%
2015 2014 2014
=/(+)
2015=(2015+2014)/(20146+2015
+2014)2014
2015 24 2015
4. ()
201513/14
201525/26
13/14
93.4%
95.0% 92.3% 92.3% 90.9% 92.5% 92.6% 91.3%
89.0% 89.0% 91.0% 90.6% 91.0% 91.1%
88.5% 89.8% 86.9% 88.4% 88.5%
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86.4%
84.8%
85.0%
80.0%
- -
2015 2014 2014
25/26
88.9%
90.0% 86.7% 88.7% 89.1%
87.5% 88.1% 87.4%
86.4% 86.4% 88.0% 88.7% 87.2% 88.5%
86.0% 85.1%
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2015 2014 2014
14261325
2015 25 2015
5.
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9.920151.8%-3.5%
=/
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=/
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2015 26 2015
6.
2015
16.0%
14.1%
14.0% 13.2%
12.4%
12.0% 10.6%
10.4% 10.3%
9.6%
10.0%
8.3% 8.2%
7.2% 7.6%
8.0% 7.1% 6.9%
6.2%
6.0% 5.0%
3.8% 3.8%
4.0% 3.1%
2.0%
0.0%
2015 2014 2014
=/
2009
1%
2015 27 2015
6. ()
2015
14.0% 12.8%
12.5%
12.0%
10.5% 10.4%
9.9%
10.0% 9.5%
8.5% 8.5% 8.4% 8.6%
7.9% 8.0% 7.8%
8.0%
5.7% 5.9%
6.0% 5.2%
4.5%
3.9%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
2015 28 2015
7.
2015
2015
2015630 4.85%~5.00% 5.10%~5.20% 4.75%~5.23%
20141231 4.80%~5.00% 5.00%~5.20% 4.75%~5.23%
2015630 3.47%~5.85% 3.57% ~5.95% 3.67%~6.05%
20141231 3.52%~5.96% 3.57% ~6.28% 3.67%~6.11%
/ / / /
2015630 37~45 0.85%~0.90% 14 0.90% 80~95 1.15%~1.26% 60 0.88%
2015 29 2015
8.
2015
2014
2014220%
350% 309%
309% 325% 301%
294%
300% 275%
241% 246%
250% 220% 225% 218% 227% 221%
215%
184% 179% 191%
200% 175%
150%
100%
50%
0%
2015 2014 2014
2015 30 2015
9.1
2015
6,000 5,168
4,549
3,904
4,000 3,024 2,642
2,227 1,432 1,257
2,000 1,051 766 518 656 992 731 853 545 409 474
0
2015 2014 2014
100.0%
47.8%
50.0% 32.4% 35.8% 36.3% 35.7% 33.3%
23.6% 20.3%
16.0% 14.8%
7.4% 7.3%
0.0%
2015 2014
2015 31 2015
9.1
2015 2014 2014 2015 2014 2014
630 630 1231 630 630 1231
2,347 1,387 1,942 356 158 248
3,246 2,901 3,007 483 415 469
(425) (385) (400) (73) (55) (61)
5,168 3,904 4,549 766 518 656
2015 2014 2014 2015 2014 2014
630 630 1231 630 630 1231
576 351 504 968 658 898
19996 19996
(46) (44) (47) (63) (75) (73)
19996 19996
1,060 882 949 2,500 1,947 2,156
(158) (138) (149) (381) (303) (339)
1,432 1,051 1,257 3,024 2,227 2,642
2015 2014 2014 2015 2014 2014
630 630 1231 630 630 1231
514 336 430 368 235 306
605 511 543 186 182 175
(127) (116) (120) (9) (8) (6)
992 731 853 545 409 474
2015 32 2015
9.2
2015
3,000 2,822
2,607
2,516
2,500
2,057
2,000
1,744
1,569
1,500
1,000 842
700 741
478
500 397 403 402 396 423
177 174 169
2015 2014 2014
11%10%11.5%
2015 33 2015
9.3
2015
37%
/
300 284 50.0%
272 45.0%
45.0%
250 233
222 220 40.0% 37.0%
199 34.1%
35.0%
200
28.2% 29.1%
30.0%
26.5%
150 25.0%
0 0.0%
2015 2014 2014 2015 2014
2015=2014
-2014+2015
2013
2015 34 2015
9.3 ()
2015
200 186
180 170
160
135
140
118
120
100
80 72
60 52
32 35 27
40 24 24 26
20
0
2015 2014
2015 35 2015
9.3 ()
2015
-3%44%
138%32%2%
-9%
50.0%
44.6% 44.0% 43.2%
45.0% 160%
138%
40.0% 38.5% 38.2% 36.6% 140%
120%
35.0%
100%
30.0%
80%
22.9% 58%
25.0% 60% 44%
35% 32%
20.0% 16.6% 40% 30% 25%23%
16.2% 16%
15.0% 20% 2%
0%
10.0% 6.9%
-20% -3% -9%
5.0%
0.0%
2015 2014
2015 2014
11%11.5%
2015 36 2015
9.3 ()
2015
/
501 336 562 414 470
281 190 188 152
400 158 126 148 101 123 92
20
2015 2014 2014
80% 66% 66% 71% 68% 67%
57%
60% 48% 50%
36% 34% 36% 35% 39% 28%
40%
12%
20%
0%
2015 2014 2014
=+(+ )*10%
= /
2015 37 2015
9.3 ()
2015
37%41%
/
20.0%
13.2% 12.7% 13.1% 12.5%
12.7% 12.6% 12.1% 11.8%
10.1% 8.9% 9.6% 10.8% 11.7% 11.6%
10.0% 8.8%
0.0%
2015 2014 2014
/
30.0% 26.7%
22.5% 26.4% 21.4%
20.0% 21.2%
20.0% 14.5%
13.3% 12.7% 13.4% 12.8% 14.0%
12.2% 11.8% 13.2%
10.0%
0.0%
2015 2014 2014
2015 38 2015
9.4
2015
11% 11% 11%
2015
5.1%20165.2%
5.1% 4.75%
5.2%
0.1% 0.25%5.5%
5.5%
25% 25% 25%
5.5%* 5.5%*
65% 70%
50%
60%
25%
(2000-2003) (2000-2003) 80%
50%
15%
85% 20%80%
2% 2.5%
75%* 70%*
80%* 80%*
2015 39 2015
9.4 ()
11.50% 10.00%
2015 2016 2017 2018+
(2006-
2010)
2000-2003
2014
2.0%
70%
2015 40 2015
9.5
2015
2015630
11% 11% 11% 11.50% 10%
0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 1.0%
-4.66% -4.29% -4.44% -5.15% -6.38%
0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 1.0%
5.00% 4.57% 4.75% 5.52% 7.43%
10% 50bp 25bp 50bp 50bp
(1)
16.15% 10.77% 7.63% 16.97% 20.71%
10% 50bp 25bp 50bp: 50bp
(1)
-16.04% -10.96% -7.67% -17.01% -20.58%
10% 1.01% 0.99% 1.83% 2.85% 1.23%
10%(2) 0.81% 0.68% 0.52% 0.80%
2.09%
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10% 0.42% 2.05% -0.31% 1.53% 3.76%
10% 0.21% 0.11% 0.31%
150% -7.40% -9.35% -9.21% -2.38% -6.25%
0.56%
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210%2.07%2.74%
5% 5% 5% 5% 10%
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110%
210%2.09%
2015 41 2015
9.5 ()
2015/
2015630 /3
11% 11% 11% 11.50% 10%
0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 1.0%
0.5%
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0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 1.0%
0.5%
5.47% 7.65% 6.52% 8.11% 11.89%
10% 50bp 25bp 50bp 50bp
(1)
21.99% 10.35% 5.41% 24.79% 41.90%
10% 50bp 25bp 50bp 50bp
(1)
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10% 6.95% 1.10% 8.58% 14.47% 10.11%
10%(2) 0.53% 1.55% 0.52% 1.15%
3.42%
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10% 2.77% 4.52% 0.72% 7.85% 11.15%
10% 4.43% 1.62% 2.22%
-7.93% -7.73% -7.68% -12.54% -10.93%
150%
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5% 5% 5% 5% 10%
5%
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110%
210%3.42%
2015 42 2015
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6. /
7. /
8.
9.
10.
2015 43 2015
1.
2015
300,000
253,037
250,000
200,000
146,232 143,150
150,000 132,118
93,026
100,000 81,584
68,852
48,380 48,165
50,000
2015 44 2015
1. ()
2015
10.7%18.5%
30.0% 27.7%
25.0%
20.0% 18.5%
14.3% 13.7%
15.0%
10.7%
10.0%
5.0%
0.4%
0.0%
2015 2014
2015 45 2015
1. ()
75%
70%
60%
20%
0%
2015 2014 2014 2015 2014 2014 2015 2014 2014
2015 46 2015
2.
201520150.3%
1.1%1.3%0.5%
2015 2014
, ,
, 35.4% , 34.2% 34.9% 34.5%
, 11.3% ,
, 19.1% ,
12.6% 18.0%
2015 47 2015
3.
2015
160,000
144,685
140,000
120,000
100,000
2015 48 2015
4.
201585%
16,000 14,578 140%
14,422 122%
14,000 120%
94%
12,000 100%
85%
10,000 8,807 80%
8,730
7,790
8,000 60%
40% 29%
6,000
4,496
20%
4,000 3,268 2%
1,474 0%
2,000
1,068
-20%
0 -15%
-40%
2015 2014 2014
2015 2014
2015 49 2015
4. ()
2015144.2266.3285%
61.9120146.045.3%(20145.6%)
75.9216.928.63%2015
416%18%9%6%
2015H15
2015
2014
2015 50 2015
4. ()
201587.3042.3494.2%
2015
2015
814.4318.5%201593.6%0.8
2015A62023
201532.6817.94
121.7%2015
123.7% 2015A318
2015 51 2015
5.
201594.7%0.3%1.2
0.993.6%0.8%0.5
1.399.5%
100%107.6%117.8%108.0%
100%
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61.5% 62.4% 64.4% 58.3% 64.9% 63.8% 68.0%
57.0% 57.7%
20%
0%
2015 52 2015
6. /
/
60.0% 52.9% 52.2% 53.1%
50.0%
42.5% 44.5% 41.8%
44.5%
40.9%
38.8%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
=/12
2014=/
2015=20156/(2015+2014)2014
2015 53 2015
7. /
/ /
50.0% 70.0%
30.0%
20.0%
20.0%
10.0% 10.0%
0.0%
0.0%
=/12
2014=/
2015=20156/(2015+2014)2014
2015 54 2015
8.
Standard & Poors A-
A.M. BestFitchMoodys2015
11%12.8%201511%12.6%
2015H28
20% 15.8%
12.8% 12.4% 11% 12.6% 12.8%
11%
10% 7.8%
0%
2015 2014 2014
14.1% 16.6% 15.7%
20.0% 9.6% 11.7% 9.9%
0.0%
2015 2014 2014
=/
=/
=/
=/
=/
2015 55 2015
8. ()
20154.5%2015
100.5564.73
35.690.13
2015A21
0%
2015 2014 2014
0%
2015 2014 2014
2015 56 2015
8. ()
A-
201514.1%201412.6%
201415.2%2015A26
14.1% 14.2% 13.3% 12.6% 15.2% 14.8% 14.6%
20.0%
0.0%
-20.0%
-14.0%
-40.0%
-31.2%
2015 2014 2014
30.0%
19.8% 20.6%
17.6%
20.0% 14.7%
12.3% 11.4%
10.0%
0.0%
2015 2014 2014
2015 57 2015
9.
2015
35.0
31.0
30.0 27.2
25.0 21.58
20.0 18.6
15.0 11.8
10.7
10.0
5.0
0.0
2015 2014 2014
=/*360(*180)
2015 58 2015
10.
2015201410
802015
20151.7%
201525
2015
300.0%
239.0%
250.0% 226.0%
201.0%
200.0% 181.0% 175.0% 177.0%
164.5%
153.6% 151.9%
150.0%
100.0%
50.0%
0.0%
2015 2014 2014
2015 59 2015
1.
2.
3.
2015 60 2015
1.
20156%
20.0%
9.1% 8.8% 10.5%
7.7% 6.6%4.4% 6.1% 7.8%
10.0% 4.8% 5.4% 5.1% 6.0% 4.3% 5.3% 5.1% 5.8% 5.1% 5.8%
0.0%
2015 2014 2014
()=(-)/(-
)2
={[(-+--
+)/((+)/2)]/181}365
Modified Dietz
( )=( + + -
- )/
Modied Dietz
=(-)/[(--]*2
2015 61 2015
2.
2015
55%70%2015
100% 4% 3% 3% 4%
10% 5% 6% 7% 9% 7% 8% 9% 7%
11%
11% 9% 14% 11% 21%
29% 28% 30% 17% 7% 18% 13% 11% 14% 7% 11%
10% 18%
80%
9%
10% 10%
60% 16%
0%
2015
2014
2014
2015
2014
2014
2015
2014
2014
2015
2014
2014
2015
2014
2014
2015
2014
2014
2015 62 2015
3.
2015
50%/
59%52%48%
120%
0%
100%
15% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1%
0% 4% 1% 1% 0% 0%
10% 0% 15% 9% 9%
16% 13% 3%
4% 11%
0% 13%
13% 7% 12% 31% 5%
80% 37% 10%
12% 48% 13% 3%
36% 52%
59%
6%
60% 5%
8%
11% 90% 3% 90%
40% 79% 83% 78% 3% 83%
69% 70% 74%
57% 61%
20% 46% 41% 44%
37%
0% -3%
-8%
-20%
2014
2015
2015
2014
2015
2014
2015
2014
2015
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014
2015 63 2015
17.4%25.3%
5%
0.2%
30.0%
25.3% 25.5%
25.0% 22.8%
22.0%
20.9% 21.8%
20.0% 18.3% 18.2% 18.1%
17.4% 17.4%
16.0% 15.8%
14.6%
15.0% 12.8% 13.2%
10.3%
9.1%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
2015 2014 2014
=/[(+)/2]=2
2015 64 2015
2015
20.7%33%2015
2008
52.51
6.5%
35.0% 33.0%
30.0% 26.3%
26.3% 25.5%
23.1% 24.2% 24.7% 23.6%
25.0% 22.7% 23.0% 22.4%
20.1% 20.7%
19.4% 19.5%
20.0% 18.9% 17.7%
17.1%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
2015 2014 2014
=/
2015 65 2015
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2015 66 2015
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