2015年第四季德勤全球并购指数 - 2016年差异中见机遇-en-160121 PDF

The Deloitte M&A Index
2016: Opportunities
amidst divergence
Q4 2015
2 | The Deloitte M&A Index Q4 2015 2016: Opportunities amidst divergence
Contents
Key points 3
Contacts
Factors influencing M&A in 2016 4
Iain Macmillan
Corporate barometer 11 Managing Partner,
Global M&A Services
Deal corridors 12 020 7007 2975
imacmillan@deloitte.co.uk
Geographies 13
Sectors 16 Sriram Prakash
Global Lead M&A Insight
Charts we like 22 020 7303 3155
sprakash@deloitte.co.uk
Authors and
contributors
Sriram Prakash and Irina
Bolotnikova are the UK
About The Deloitte M&A Index
Insight team for M&A,
The Deloitte M&A Index is a forward-looking indicator that forecasts future
based in London. Haranath
global M&A deal volumes and identifies the factors influencing conditions for
Sriyapureddy and Sukeerth
dealmaking.
Thodimaladinna are research
analysts in the UK Research
The Deloitte M&A Index is created from a composite of weighted market
Center, in India.
indicators from four major data sets: macroeconomic and key market
indicators, funding and liquidity conditions, company fundamentals, valuations.
The team would like to
thank Ben Davies, James
Each quarter, these variables are tested for their statistical significance and
Anson-Smith, Jo Brealey,
relative relationships to M&A volumes. As a result, we have a dynamic and
Kristie Ampuero and the
evolving model which allows Deloitte to identify the factors impacting
Deloitte Creative Studio for
dealmaking and enable us to project future M&A deal volumes. The Deloitte
their contribution in the
M&A Index has an accuracy rate of over 90% dating back to Q1 2008.
production of the Deloitte
M&A Index.
In this publication, references to Deloitte are references to Deloitte LLP, the UK
member firm of DTTL.
The Deloitte M&A Index Q4 2015 2016: Opportunities amidst divergence | 3
Key points
We are expecting 2015 to end with over $4 trillion worth of deals Record-breaking deal values
making it the highest for deal values since 2007. However, on a last- $4 + trillion 2015
twelve-months (LTM) basis, there was a slowdown in the volume of
transactions in the second half of 2015.
$3.3trilliion 2014
$1trillion of cross-border deals

Cross-border deals are a major feature of this M&A wave. More than
emergence of
$1 trillion worth of cross-border deals have been announced so far new corridors
this year, of which a third were in the vibrant deal corridor between
North America and Europe. In addition, new corridors have started 1/3rd of
emerging between Asia and Europe, led by China and Japan, and are cross-border
deals are
likely to continue in 2016. between
N. America
and Europe
Our analysis shows that companies are committing to deliver
The size of the integration prize
annualised cost synergies that represent, on average, 3-4% of the
transaction value. If all announced cost synergies are realised and
Realising all cost up to
sustained, they could add an estimated $1.5-1.9 trillion to the value synergies could
of these companies. Therefore delivering these synergies will be high
add an estimated
$1.5-1.9 trillion $1.5-$1.9
on boardroom agendas. to value of
companies trillion
The threat of disruptive innovation is impacting the traditional
products and markets of many companies. In response they are M&A opportunities amidst divergence
launching venture funds to seek and invest in new sources of
innovation, which could lead to smaller, but more strategic deals.
As this record-breaking year draws to a close, concerns over global Economic growth Monetary policy
growth are back, along with divergence in economic and monetary
policies. Looking ahead, we expect such divergence to create M&A
opportunities and define dealmaking in 2016. Corporate performance Currency fluctuations
Figure 1. The Deloitte M&A Index

Q4 2015 M&A
Global M&A deal volumes
deal forecast
12,000
High: 11,600
11,500
Mid: 11,300
11,000 Low: 11,000
10,500
10,000
9,500
9,000
8,500
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012 2013 2013 2013 2013 2014 2014 2014 2014 2015 2015 2015 2015
Deloitte M&A Index (projections)
M&A deal volume (actuals)
Last twelve months deal volumes Q4 2015 M&A
45,000 deal forecast
40,000
35,000
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012 2013 2013 2013 2013 2014 2014 2014 2014 2015 2015 2015 2015
Source: Deloitte analysis based on data from Thomson One Banker

Factors influencing M&A in 2016

Figure 2. IMF real GDP growth, actual and forecast (2008-17E) Divergence in global economic growth
GDP growth % After a strong recovery, the US economy
experienced a modest slowdown in the second
12
half of 2015 and the International Monetary
10 Fund (IMF) cut the growth outlook for the US in
2016 from 3% to 2.8%. While unemployment
8 in the US is low and wage recovery strong, the
6
labour participation rate as measured by working
age population in employment remains the
4 weakest since the 1970s. Meanwhile, the IMF
expects the eurozone to grow at 1.6%, in part due
2
to the continued commitment of the European
0 Central Bank (ECB) to quantitative easing.
-2 Among BRICs, China missed its first growth

target in two decades, while the commodity
-4 exporting nations of Brazil and Russia have
slipped into recession. On the other hand, India
-6
will be the fastest growing major economy in
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E
2015, according to IMF forecasts. In addition,
Eurozone US UK China India
the Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia and
Malaysia four of the ten fastest growing
Source: Deloitte analysis based on data from Bloomberg
economies in 2015 are in the Association of
Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) region.1
Figure 3. Global trade as a percentage of GDP Total OECD countries (%) Against this backdrop, global trade as a
proportion of GDP has been broadly stagnant
60
since 2011, sparking debate on whether
the impact of globalisation has peaked.
58
Potential reasons include cyclical shifts such
56 as the slowdown in investment in response to
weaker demand in major economies, as well
54 as structural shifts such as the realignment of
China from an export-oriented to a domestic
52 consumption-driven economy.
50 Divergences in economic growth mean

companies would need to be actively on
48 the lookout for growth markets and deal
opportunities.
46
44
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Note: Global Trade = Sum of exports and imports by OECD countries in US$;
GDP = Sum of nominal GDP of OECD countries in US$
Source: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
1. Among countries with GDP over $100 billion.


Divergence in monetary policies
Monetary policies among the major central banks are diverging. In the US, the market is widely expected to have already priced
in the gradual increases to the Federal Reserve interest rate. While we do not expect major shocks in the debt market, increases
in the cost of credit could lead to a slowdown in the issuance of acquisition related bonds which globally stands at $282 billion,
a 15-year high.
At the same time, the ECB is committed to its quantitative easing programme, which has led to a slide in bond yields. The spreads
between the US and German 10-year bonds are widening. This presents opportunities for global companies to take advantage of the
funding conditions in Europe to raise additional debt. So far this year overseas companies have issued 155 billion worth of corporate
bonds in Europe, much higher than the 120 billion raised during the whole of last year.
Figure 4. US vs Germany ten-year government bond yields, 2006-15 YTD
6% 250
5% 200
150
4%
100
Basis points
3% 50
0
2%
-50
1%
-100
0% -150
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Spread US-Germany (RHS) US Generic Govt 10 Year Yield (LHS) Germany Generic Govt 10 Year Yield (LHS)
Figure 5. Federal Reserve vs euro area central bank assets Figure 6. Euro denominated bond issuance (bn), 2012-15 YTD*
($trn), (trn)
900
5 800
Proceeds amount (bn)
700
4
600
$ trn, trn
3 500
400
2 300
200
1 100
0
0
2003 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 2012 2013 2014 2015 YTD
Central bank assets for euro area (11-19 countries) Europe US Rest of world
All Federal Reserve banks total assets
Note: Includes investment grade, high yield and emerging markets
bond issuance
Source: Federal Reserve
*2015 YTD refers to 16 November 2015


Figure 7. STOXX Europe 600 Index and S&P 500 Index normalised Divergence in corporate performance
performance, December 2005 to November 2015 Since the financial crisis, European corporate
180 earnings have trailed those of the US companies,
160 where they are close to 15-year highs.However,
140 the gap is expected to narrow if European
120 demand picks up following the ECB stimulus.
100 We have already seen European corporate
80 margins increase at a strong pace since 2013,
60
while S&P 500 companies are expected to show
40
three consecutive quarters of declining earnings.
20 The US dollar has appreciated in recent years
0 and future Federal Reserve rate increases are
Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Nov likely to strengthen it further. This in turn will put
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
pressure on the earnings of US companies that
STOXX Europe 600 depend on exports. It is estimated that around
S&P 500 45% of the revenues of S&P 500 companies
come from overseas markets.2 We therefore
expect US companies to continue cross-border
Figure 8. STOXX Europe 600 Index and S&P 500 Index constituents M&A acquisitions to offset some of the pressure,
average net profit margin (%), 2000-14 and benefit from growth in new markets.
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
S&P 500
STOXX Europe 600
2. Worldview 2Q 2015. Currencies, markets and the

bumpy path to recovery. J.P. Morgan Asset Management

Divergence in deal valuations and cash positions
P/E multiples for deals in the US and Asia are well above their 15-year average, whereas in Europe
they are still close to their average. European companies have access to local markets that are
expected to grow faster than many other developed economies, making them attractive acquisition
targets at favourable deal P/E multiples.
With $1.6 trillion, North American non-financial companies, led by those in the US, have the highest
levels of cash reserves in the S&P 1200 Index and this puts them in a strong position to acquire
assets in Europe. The European companies in S&P 1200 have $1 trillion in cash reserves, while Asian
companies have $844 billion in cash reserves.
Figure 9. P/E deal multiples for US, Europe and Asia-Pacific as a target, 2000-15 YTD
33x
31x
29x
US:
27x 24.5 on average
25x
23x
21x
Europe: Asia Pacific:
19x 22.2 on average 21.7 on average
17x
15x
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
YTD
US Europe Asia-Pacific Average
Note: 2015 YTD refers to 16 November 2015
Figure 10. Cash reserves of the non-financial constituents of the S&P Global 1200 ($bn), 2008-14
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Asia-Pacific Europe North America


Figure 11. Outbound Chinese M&A deal values into Europe and North America Impact of Chinese slowdown on M&A
markets
After decades of era-defining growth, in
$35.5bn 2014 China missed its growth target for the first
time since 1998, recording its lowest growth rate
in 24 years.In its latest five-year plan, Chinese
authorities have announced a revised growth
target of 6.5% up to 2020.
China is in the midst of rebalancing from an
investment led, export oriented economy to a
consumption driven one.This shift is signalled
$10.7bn by the dominance of the services sector, which
$8bn now accounts for 48% of economic output,
compared to 43% for the industrial sector.
$2.7bn
The decline in Chinese GDP growth and the shift
2009 2015 YTD 2009 2015 YTD to a consumption driven economy is mirrored
Europe North America by a steep increase in M&A activities, both
domestic as well as cross-border. So far this year,
Figure 12. Chinas disclosed M&A deal values ($bn) and GDP growth (%),
Chinese companies have spent $65.8 billion
2000-Q3 2015 LTM
in overseas acquisitions, with the majority in
Total disclosed deal values ($bn) GDP growth % Europe. However, there was a decline in the
800 16 volume of outbound acquisitions made in the
700 14 E&R and manufacturing sectors, while there was
600 12 an increase on the part of TMT and consumer
500 10 business companies.
400 8
300 6 The slowdown in Chinese growth is expected
200 4
2
to have a ripple effect on M&A markets, first in
100
0 0 the commodities sector, where consolidation
is expected as well as in commodity exporting
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Q3 2015
LTM
nations where activities could slow down. It

could also lead to consolidation in sectors such
Outbound deal values Inbound deal values
Domestic deal values Chinas percentage change in real GDP (%) as shipping and logistics which depend on
growth in trade.
Source: Deloitte analysis based on data from Thomson One Banker and Economist
Intelligence Unit

Strong resurgence in Japanese dealmaking Figure 13. Japans disclosed M&A deal values ($bn)
Driven by the weak yen, Japanese corporate
profits are at their highest levels in over ten years.
We estimate that the Nikkei 225 non-financial $81.4bn
constituents have $507 billion in cash reserves,
the second highest after the US corporate sector. $56.4bn
At the same time, despite the ongoing economic $46bn
reforms, Japan remains saddled with falling
domestic consumption compounded by a
decline in real earnings, an aging population and
GDP that shrank at an annualised rate of 1.2%
$10.7bn
in Q2 2015.
2009 2015 YTD 2009 2015 YTD
In response to these pressures, Japanese
Outbound Domestic
companies are actively looking abroad for
growth prospects. So far this year they
have made $56.4 billion worth of overseas
acquisitions, which account for an astonishing
52% of all announced deals by value, by Figure 14. Corporate earnings and cash reserves of the constituents of the
Japanese companies. This means that for the Nikkei 225 Index ($bn), 2000-14
first time, Japanese outbound M&A figures are 600
higher than domestic figures.Looking ahead,
500
we expect this trend to continue as Japanese
companies seek new growth opportunities. 400
300
200
100
0
-100
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Total net income of all constituents

Total cash reserves of non-financial constituents

Figure 15. Expected annual synergies as a percentage of disclosed deal value (%) When the ink dries
Since the beginning of 2014, companies have
announced around $4.9 trillion worth of deals
Manufacturing 4.2% globally.3Based on our research of the publicly
announced cost synergies, we estimate that
Consumer Business 3.7% annualised cost synergies represent, on average,
3-4% of the transaction value. This means that
Telecoms, Media & Technology 3.5% companies have committed to realise between
$150-$200 billion worth of annualised synergies.
Energy & Resources 3.3% If all the announced cost synergies are realised
and sustained, this could add an estimated
Financial Services 2.9% $1.5-1.9 trillion to the value of these companies,
before consideration of the premium paid and
Life Sciences & Healthcare 2.9% associated integration costs.
3.29% Companies often underestimate both the

Professional Services 1.9% Average complexity and true cost of integration.Based
announced on Deloittes experience of delivering post-
Real Estate 1.4% synergies of merger integration projects, we estimate that the
deal value
total cost of integration represents, on average,
4-5% of the deal value.
created due to synergies
$1.5-$1.9trn value
upside
$200-$250bn M&A deals provide the corporate sector with a
integration costs platform for growth, but companies would need
Acquisition to work hard to realise the synergies in order to
premium create shareholder value. The stakes are indeed
high and ensuring successful deal integration is
likely to be near the top of boardroom agendas
for many months to come.
$4.9trn
disclosed Target Target
deal value value value
before M&A before M&A
Source: Deloitte analysis
3. Private Equity involved deals excluded.

Corporate barometer
Analysis of S&P Global 1200 company data Figure 16. Company fundamentals of the constituents of the S&P Global 1200:
Despite the resurgence in M&A, the average Q3 2014 vs Q3 2015 average
cash in hand per company increased from
Average cash in hand ($bn)
$6.61 billion in Q3 2014 to $6.70 billion in
Q3 2015.
6.70
0 10
The average earnings per share (EPS) decreased
from $0.92 in Q3 2014 to $0.72 in Q3 2015. 6.61
The Q3 2015 revenues declined by 9.5 Average EPS ($)
per cent compared to Q3 2014 revenues.
In contrast, Q3 2014 revenues were one per
0.72
0 1.0
cent higher than for the same quarter of 2013.
The free cash flow for the firm (FCFF) across the
0.92
S&P Global 1200 declined from $624.68 million Year-on-year average revenue growth (%)
in Q3 2014 to $592.6 million in Q3 2015.
-9.5%
The average dividend payments per company 10%
-10%
increased from $258.1 million in Q3 2014 to
$260.76 million in Q3 2015, continuing the 1.0%
trend of returning cash to shareholders.
Average dividend paid ($m)
Average capital expenditure per company fell
from $454.5 million to $404.87 million, largely 260.76
as a result of the slowdown in capex of the E&R 100 300
constituents.
258.1
Finally, average net earnings have declined from
$524.9 million in Q3 2014 to $392.52 million Average capital expenditure ($m)
in Q3 2015.
404.87
0 500
454.5
Average free cash flow for the firm (FCFF) ($m)
592.60
0 800
624.68
Average net income ($m)
392.52
0 800
524.9
= Q3 2015 Average = Q3 2014 Average

Deal corridors
The US and UK lead cross-border M&A
Cross-border M&A has been one of the key features of 2015. So far this year $1.07 trillion in cross-border deals have been
announced and this includes three of the ten largest deals in 2015.
Europe has been at the centre of cross-border deals, with European companies participating in 53% of all announced deals.
The North America-Europe deal corridor has dominated, worth $311 billion. US companies have led the way, having announced
$114 billion worth of deals in Europe, of which $44 billion are in the UK.
So far this year, the growth markets nations4 have announced $49.6 billion of acquisitions in G7 nations, whereas the
G7 nations have announced only $30.7 billion in M&A deals in growth markets, the lowest in over a decade.
Cross-border deal flow is expected to be a key theme in the coming years, as major economies strike agreements and alliances
to bolster trade. For instance the recently agreed Trans-Pacific Partnership between 12 Pacific-Rim countries, including the US,
Japan, Canada and Australia, is the biggest global trade agreement in two decades.
Figure 17. Cross-border deal values by target region ($bn), 2015 YTD
Inbound to Europe
North America: $150.9bn
APAC: $68.1bn
Europe to UK Japan to
$207.9bn China to North America
Europe $26.4bn
$35.5bn
UK to US
$33.8bn
US to Europe
$114.1bn US to APAC
$22.5bn
Inbound to North America Inbound to Asia-Pacific
Europe: $160.5bn North America: $31.4bn
MEA: $48.7bn Europe: $9.1bn
APAC: $56.9bn MEA: $10.5bn
Note: 2015 YTD refers to 16 November 2015. APAC refers to Asia-Pacific; MEA refers to Africa/Middle East
Figure 18. Cross border M&A deal values by target sector ($bn), 2013-Q3 2015 LTM
11
173 148 101 158 166 113 120 2014
Q3
283 179 155 141 114 41 113 179 2015
LTM
Consumer Energy & Financial Life Manufacturing Real Telecoms,

Business Resources Services Sciences Estate Media
& Healthcare & Technology
Professional
Services
4. Please refer to Charts we like (page 22-23) for definition of growth markets
Geographies
Overview
We are expecting this year to end with over $4 trillion worth of announced deals. The majority of the deals have been in
North America, while Asia-Pacific overtook Europe for the first time.
Figure 19. Global disclosed deal values by region of acquirer and target ($bn),
2013-15 YTD
Total deal values by target region ($bn) Total deal values by acquirer region ($bn)
Africa/
Middle
East
Asia-
Pacific
Europe
North
America
South
America
1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800
2013 2014 2015 YTD
North America Figure 20. Total disclosed deal values in North America ($bn), 2010-15 YTD
So far this year North American companies have
2,000
announced more than $2.0 trillion worth of deals,
surpassing the 2014 figure of $1.7 trillion. This 1,800
Total disclosed deal values ($bn)
is largely down to the resurgence in domestic 1,600

M&A in the US, where currently $1.25 trillion 1,400
worth of deals have been announced, the highest 1,200
in 15 years. The US domestic M&A market 1280 1359
1,000
benefitted from the boost falling energy prices
800
gave to consumer spending. 906 759 940
600 714
The expected increases to the Fed rate are 400 213 195
likely to strengthen the dollar, putting pressure 116 169
200 143 113
on companies that are dependent on exports. 159 231 268
123 142 90
0
However, a stronger dollar also presents some 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 YTD
companies with deal opportunities as assets
Inbound deal values Outbound deal values
abroad will look more attractive in dollar terms.
Domestic deal values
Canadian companies announced $101 billion
in outbound deals so far this year, the highest Note: 2015 YTD refers to 16 November 2015
figure in over a decade. Activist involvement in the
energy sector has increased as the pressure from
falling energy prices started to mount.
Geographies
Figure 21. Total disclosed deal values in Europe ($bn), 2010-15 YTD Europe
So far this year almost $1.1 trillion worth of
1,200
deals have been announced involving European
companies, surpassing the $1.07 trillion
1,000
announced for the whole of 2014.
800
652 664
This includes $237 billion worth of inbound
deals, the highest levels in well over a decade.
600 597 US companies were the most active acquirers,
510 492
announcing $114 billion worth of deals in
417
400 Europe.
206 186
115 122 Companies in the UK have been the most
200 174
97
167 181 212 237 sought after targets and so far this year they
118 118
0 attracted $313 billion in M&A investment from
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 YTD both eurozone and overseas acquirers.
Inbound deal values Outbound deal values Looking ahead, we expect the weakness of
Domestic deal values the euro, favourable debt market conditions,
attractive valuations and a positive growth
outlook to offer opportunities for dealmakers.
Figure 22. Total disclosed deal values in Asia-Pacific ($bn), 2010-15 YTD Asia-Pacific
Domestic deals in Asia-Pacific have been the
1,200
highest in over a decade, totaling $851 billion
and largely led by China. While we expect the
1,000
Chinese domestic M&A market to slow down
in light of lower economic growth, outbound
800
investment will continue as Chinese companies
851
seek new markets.
600
673 M&A activity of Indian companies in value terms
459
400 429 417 465 has grown 6.1% year on year during the first
three-quarters of 2015, led largely by the return
200 of private equity deals and an increase in
132 117 115 112 134
84 cross-border deals by Indian companies.
75 63 55 52 67 58
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 YTD The weak Australian dollar has given a boost to
Inbound deal values Outbound deal values inbound M&A into Australia.

Geographies
Africa and the Middle East Figure 23. Total disclosed deal values in the Middle East and Africa ($bn),
The sharp drop in oil and other commodity 2010-15 YTD
prices adversely impacted M&A activities for the 120
natural resources exporting nations in the Middle
East and Africa. 100 33
In Africa, M&A activities declined to $27.4 billion,
80 37
the lowest level since 2012. African companies
have been diversifying their portfolios and, led 31
60
by South Africa, outbound acquisitions reached 34 35
26 26 68
$9.5 billion so far in 2015.
40
In the Middle East outbound deal activities 29 17 9
20
reached their highest levels since 2007. So far 20 38
28
this year $67.8 billion worth of deals have been 16 22 16 13
announced, primarily driven by Israeli acquisitions 0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 YTD
in the US.
Inbound deal values Outbound deal values
South America Figure 24. Total disclosed deal values in South America ($bn), 2010-15 YTD
The slowdown in China has hit the commodity
250
exporting nations of South and Latin America
hard. Indeed, M&A activity is the lowest since
2005and Brazil, the largest economy in the 200

region, is currently in recession.
124
150
M&A activity this year has largely been sustained
by cross-border activities. So far $44.2 billion
worth of cross-border deals have been 100 66
21 52
69
announced, accounting for 62% of all deals by 56
value. Italian and US companies have been the 15 19 27
50 13
80 15
most active investors in the region, responsible 48
19
36 43
for 50% of inbound deals by value. 31 25
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 YTD
Private equityhas started to make a comeback
in the region taking advantage of the attractive Inbound deal values Outbound deal values
valuations. Other developments, such as the Domestic deal values
Pacific Alliance between Mexico, Chile, Colombia
and Peru, are expected to boost to investment Note: 2015 YTD refers to 16 November 2015
and M&A in the coming years. Source: Deloitte analysis based on data from Thomson One Banker
Sectors
Figure 25. Global disclosed deal values for consumer business subsectors as a Consumer business
target ($bn), 2008-Q3 2015 LTM So far this year $655.5 billion worth of deals
Total disclosed deal values ($bn) P/E deal multiples have been announced, of which $258 billion
have been cross-border in nature, largely driven
800 30
by US and European companies.
700
25 M&A activity is getting stronger in Asia, where
600
20
companies announced $165 billion in deals.
500 Asian acquirers accounted for the majority of
400 15 these transactions. Looking ahead we expect
300
Asian acquirers, led by China, to continue the
10 pace in 2016.
200
100
5 Deal PE multiplescurrently stand at their highest
since the financial crisis. The constituents of the
0 0
S&P Global 1200 consumer indices have spent
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Q3 2015
LTM
$153.8 billion of cash on M&A over the last

12 reported months. The 2015 LTM revenues
Retail Food and Beverage Personal & Household goods remain stagnant and this could put pressure
Recreation & Leisure Transportation & Infrastructure on companies to divest their non-core product
Employment Services PE deal multiples portfolios and focus on core markets and
Source: Deloitte analysis based on data from Thomson One Banker products.
The consumer business sector is facing
competition from non-traditional new entrants
from the technology sector and this in turn could
lead to participation in cross-industry strategic
alliances and venture investments.
Financial performance of the S&P Global 1200 Consumer Staples and Consumer Discretionary Indices constituents
Q4 2014 Q2 2015 Total revenues

$762.7bn $710.7bn 2014 $7,088.6bn
2015 LTM $7,159.8bn
Consumer Cash and
Business ST investments
Total debt
$328.4bn $333.0bn
$116.2bn $153.8bn
Cash spent Capital

on M&A expenditure
$171.4bn $169.9bn $156.3bn $167.2bn
$2,422.9bn $2,487.1bn Common Share

dividends paid repurchases
Note: LTM refers to the last twelve months from the latest reported date
Source: Deloitte analysis based on data from S&P Capital IQ

Sectors
Energy and resources Figure 26. Global disclosed deal values for Energy & Resources subsectors as
The end of the commodity super-cycle has a target ($bn), 2008-Q3 2015 LTM
reverberated dramatically across M&A markets. Total disclosed deal values ($bn) P/E deal multiples
Pressure on revenues has meant that companies
800 30
are looking to consolidate. So far this year
$534.8 billion worth of deals have been 700
25
announced, which includes ten mega deals, 600
double the number of mega deals announced 500
20
in 2014.
400 15
However, deal volumes have declined for the 300
fourth year in a row.This is closely linked to the 10
200
commodity price index, which also has been on
5
the decline during the same period. 100
0 0
Comparing the last 12 reported months with
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Q3 2015
LTM
2014 levels for the S&P Global 1200 energy
constituents, capital expenditures have been
badly hit. Metals & Mining Oil & Gas Pipeline Power Others
PE deal multiples
Looking ahead, we are expecting companies
to divest their portfolio of assets and further Source: Deloitte analysis based on data from Thomson One Banker
consolidation to take place. We also expect
private equity deals to make a comeback in
this sector.
Financial performance of the S&P Global 1200 Energy Index constituents

2014 $4,201.7bn
2015 LTM $3,122.1bn
Energy & Cash and
Resources $315.9bn $324.9bn ST investments
Total debt
$543.5bn
$456.2bn
$33.6bn $36.8bn
$1,143.2bn $1,178.4bn Cash spent Capital

on M&A expenditure
$115.0bn $99.7bn $53.8bn $27.2bn
Note: LTM refers to the last twelve months from the latest reported date Common Share
Sectors
Figure 27. Global disclosed deal values for manufacturing subsectors as a Manufacturing
target ($bn), 2008-Q3 2015 LTM So far this year $297 billion worth of deals have
Total disclosed deal values ($bn) P/E deal multiples been announced, keeping pace with 2014.
There has been a sharp increase in deal values in
400 30
the aerospace and defence sectors as well as in
350 the paper and forest products sectors.
25
300
20
There were $101.2 billion worth of deals
250 announced in Asia-Pacific region, the same
200 15 level as the whole of 2014 with the majority
150
of acquirers from Asia itself. In contrast,
10 so far $90.3 billion worth of deals have
100
been announced in Europe, compared to
5
50 $120.3 billion in 2014.
0 0
Comparing the last 12 reported months with
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Q3 2015
LTM
2014 levels for the S&P Global 1200 Industrial

constituents, we are expecting an increase in
Automobiles & Components Chemicals Machinery both cash spent on M&A activities and capex
Building/Construction Others PE deal multiples investment.
Financial performance of the S&P Global 1200 Industrials Index constituents

2014 $3,377.0bn
2015 LTM $3,354.1bn
$446.2bn $438.9bn Cash and
Manufacturing ST investments
Total debt
$157.8bn $175.5bn
$49.6bn $61.0bn
Cash spent Capital

on M&A expenditure
$1,565.2bn $1,572.6bn
$79.6bn $80.4bn $86.7bn $99.9bn
Note: LTM refers to the last twelve months from the latest reported date Common Share
Sectors
Technology, media and telecoms (TMT) Figure 28. Global disclosed deal values for TMT subsectors as a target ($bn),
TMT companies have accounted for 30% of 2008-Q3 2015 LTM
the mega deals announced this year. So far Total disclosed deal values ($bn) P/E deal multiples
this year, $928 billion worth of deals have
1000 35
been announced, significantly higher than the
$581 billion announced during the whole of 30
800
2014. This has largely been led by the continued
25
convergence and consolidation in the sector.
600
However, Q3 2015 LTM volumes are 11.9% 20
higher than in the preceding period. 15
400
Asia has emerged as a major player. So far this 10
year $224.3 billion worth of deals have been 200
announced with Asian companies as targets, 5
a significant increase over the $103.3 billion 0 0
announced in 2014.
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Q3 2015
LTM
The deal P/E multiples have started to increase
and they are now at their highest levels since the Telecom Media Technology PE deal multiples
financial crisis. Comparing the last 12 reported
months with 2014 levels for the S&P Global Source: Deloitte analysis based on data from Thomson One Banker
1200 IT constituents, IT companies have started
to spend less cash on M&A transactions.
There has been a slowdown in the share
repurchase programmes, and coupled with an
increase in both capex and R&D spend, it seems
the sector is looking to target growth opportunities.
Financial performance of the S&P Global 1200 Information Technology Index constituents

$775.0bn 2014 $2,029.6bn $67.8bn $61.1bn
$732.2bn
2015 LTM $2,056.1bn Cash spent
Technology, Cash and
Media & Telecoms ST investments on M&A
Total debt
$485.9bn $550.2bn
$126.0bn $135.6bn $68.5bn $74.0bn
Capital Common
expenditure dividends paid
$160.7bn $152.7bn $154.7bn $156.7bn
Note: LTM refers to the last twelve months from the latest reported date Share R&D
repurchases expense
Sectors
Figure 29. Global disclosed deal values for LSHC subsectors as a target Life sciences and healthcare (LSHC)
($bn), 2008-Q3 2015 LTM The LSHC sector has announced $574 billion
Total disclosed deal values ($bn) P/E deal multiples worth of deals so far this year, including the
estimated $146 billion Pfizer-Allergan deal, which
600 35
is the largest of the year. We estimate that over a
500 30 quarter of these transactions were cross-border
in nature.
25
400
20
North American companies led the way and
300 accounted for nearly 69% of announced deals.
15 The combination of challenging economic
200 conditions, pricing pressure from US health
10
reforms and favourable credit conditions have
100 5 boosted dealmaking.
0 0
Deal valuations are currently at their highest
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Q3 2015
LTM
levels since the financial crisis. Over the

last 12 reported months the S&P Global
Pharmaceuticals Biotechnology Healthcare PE deal multiples 1200 healthcare constituents have spent
$235 billion of cash on M&A, resulting in a
Source: Deloitte analysis based on data from Thomson One Banker decline in cash reserves and an increase in
corporate debt, largely due to issuance of
acquisition related bonds.
However, their R&D spend for the last
12 reported months increased by 2.2% over
their expenditures in 2014.
Financial performance of the S&P Global 1200 Health Care Index constituents

$235.0bn
2014 $1,859.7bn $97.2bn
2015 LTM $1,971.9bn
LIfe Sciences & $385.7bn Cash spent
$360.4bn Cash and on M&A
Healthcare ST investments
Total debt
$654.2bn $49.8bn $66.8bn $67.4bn

$773.0bn $49.1bn
Capital Common
expenditure dividends paid
$76.1bn $84.0bn $118.5bn $121.1bn
Note: LTM refers to the last twelve months from the latest reported date Share R&D
repurchases expense
Sectors
Financial services Figure 30. Global disclosed deal values for FSI subsectors as a target
So far this year $321 billion worth of deals have ($bn), 2008-Q3 2015 LTM
been announced. This was led by the sharp Total disclosed deal values ($bn)
rebound in dealmaking in the insurance sector, 700
where the long awaited consolidation resulted in
600
$98.1 billion worth of deals.
500
Dealmaking in the banking sector has been
dominated by non-core divestments. In 400
recent years challenger banks have emerged, 300
particularly in the UK, but some of those were
acquired this year by long established banks that 200
were seeking to enter new markets. 100
The threat of disruptive innovation looms 0
large and many financial services companies
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Q3 2015
LTM
have launched venture funds to tap into the
burgeoning fintech sector.
Banks and credit institutions Insurance Alternative financial investments
The alternative lending sector, including Others
crowdfunding and peer-to-peer lending, has
grown significantly in recent years. Some lending
platforms have started to acquire others to
expand into new markets. At the same time, the
range of platforms in the market means we can
expect consolidation in the future.
Financial performance of the S&P Global 1200 Financials Index constituents
Total revenues
2014 $4,111.2bn
2015 LTM $4,016.4bn
Financial
Services
$40.6bn $46.7bn $167.9bn $159.7bn $130.2bn $142.9bn
Cash spent Common Share

on M&A dividends paid repurchases
Note: LTM refers to the last twelve months from the latest reported date

Charts we like
Figure 31. Global acquisition related bond issuance Figure 32. Number of mega deal (>$10bn) by target sector,
($bn), 2008-15 YTD 2008Q3 2015 LTM
$bn Deal volume
300 50
250 40
200 30
150
20
100
10
50
0 0
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
YTD
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
YTD
Source: Dealogic CB E&R FSI LSHC Mfg Prof Services

Real Estate TMT
Figure 33. Cash and short-term investments of S&P Global 1200 Figure 34. Capital expenditure of Stoxx Europe 600 and S&P 500
non-financial constituents by sector ($bn), 2008-14 non-financial constituents ($bn), 2000-14
Cash and short term investments ($bn) Capital expenditure ($bn)
1200 800
1000 700
800 600
600 500
400 400
200 300
0
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 200
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Consumer business E&R TMT Manufacturing Stoxx Europe 600 S&P 500
Real Estate LSHC
Figure 35. M&A transactions flows G7 vs growth markets ($bn), Figure 36. S&P 500 geographic sources of revenue (%)
2007-15 YTD
G7 acquring into Growth markets
growth markets acquiring into G7
15 22.8%
YTD
14 US
13 Africa
12
Asia
11 2.6%
53.8% Europe
10 2.7%
09 North America
6.8% (excl. US)
08
07 South America
120 100 80 60 40 20 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 7.7% Other
Total disclosed deal values ($bn) 3.6%
Note: The G7 comprises of Canada, France, Italy, Germany, Japan, UK and US.
The growth markets are defined as: Brazil, China (incl. Hong Kong), Czech Source: Worldview 2Q 2015. Currencies, markets and the bumpy path
Republic, Egypt, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, Peru, to recovery J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Philippines, Poland, Russian Federation, South Africa, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey,
Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates. We define growth markets as countries
referenced in The Economist as emerging markets in 2012.

Charts we like
Figure 37. Yields to maturity of investment grade and high yield Figure 38. Contribution of services and industrial sectors to the
corporate bonds in euros and dollars (%), 2012-15 YTD Chinese economy as a percentage of GDP, 2000-16E
10% 60%
55%
8%
50%
6%
45%
4% 40%
2% 35%
0% 30%
2012 2013 2014 2015 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15E16E
Bloomberg USD Investment Grade Corporate Bond Yield Industrial (% of GDP) Services (% of GDP)
Bloomberg USD High Yield Corporate Bond Yield Source: Economist Intelligence Unit
Bloomberg EUR Investment Grade European Corporate
Bond Yield
Bloomberg EUR High Yield Corporate Bond Yield
Figure 39. Chinese outbound M&A deal volumes by target Figure 40. Consumer expenditures in Japan and China ($ trillion)
sector, 2013-Q3 2015 LTM
6
140
120 Industrial Services 5
Total deal volumes
100 4
80
3
60
2
40
20 1
0 0
Energy &
Resources
Manufacturing
Technology,
Media and
Telecoms
Consumer
Business
Financial
Services
Life Sciences
and Healthcare
Real
Estate
Professional
Services
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15E16E17E
Chinas consumer expenditure

Japans consumer expenditure
Source: Economist Intelligence Unit
2013 2014 Q3 2015 LTM
Note: China includes Hong Kong
Figure 41. Japan's disclosed M&A deal values ($bn), 2000-15 YTD Figure 42. Chinas outbound M&A deal values into Europe and
North America ($bn), 2005-2015 YTD
Total disclosed deal values ($bn) Total disclosed deal value ($bn)
150 40
125 35
100 30
75 25
50 20
25 15
0 10
5
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
YTD
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Outbound deal values Inbound deal values YTD
Europe
North America
Source: Deloitte analysis based on data from Thomson One Banker Note: 2015 YTD refers to 16 November 2015; China includes Hong Kong
Note: 2015 YTD refers to 16 November 2015 Source: Deloitte analysis based on data from Thomson One Banker
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The Deloitte M&A Index

$1trillion of cross-border deals

Figure 1. The Deloitte M&A Index

Source: Deloitte analysis based on data from Thomson One Banker

Factors influencing M&A in 2016

-2 Among BRICs, China missed its first growth

50 Divergences in economic growth mean

1. Among countries with GDP over $100 billion.

Factors influencing M&A in 2016

Figure 4. US vs Germany ten-year government bond yields, 2006-15 YTD

Source: Deloitte analysis based on data from Bloomberg

Source: Deloitte analysis based on data from Thomson One Banker

Factors influencing M&A in 2016

Source: Deloitte analysis based on data from Bloomberg

2. Worldview 2Q 2015. Currencies, markets and the

Factors influencing M&A in 2016

Note: 2015 YTD refers to 16 November 2015

Source: Deloitte analysis based on data from Thomson One Banker

Source: Deloitte analysis based on data from Bloomberg

Factors influencing M&A in 2016

nations where activities could slow down. It

Factors influencing M&A in 2016

Total net income of all constituents

Factors influencing M&A in 2016

3.29% Companies often underestimate both the

Source: Deloitte analysis

3. Private Equity involved deals excluded.

Source: Deloitte analysis based on data from Bloomberg

Source: Deloitte analysis based on data from Thomson One Banker

Consumer Energy & Financial Life Manufacturing Real Telecoms,

Source: Deloitte analysis based on data from Thomson One Banker

is largely down to the resurgence in domestic 1,600

Note: 2015 YTD refers to 16 November 2015

Source: Deloitte analysis based on data from Thomson One Banker

Note: 2015 YTD refers to 16 November 2015

Source: Deloitte analysis based on data from Thomson One Banker

2005and Brazil, the largest economy in the 200

$153.8 billion of cash on M&A over the last

Q4 2014 Q2 2015 Total revenues

Cash spent Capital

$171.4bn $169.9bn $156.3bn $167.2bn

$2,422.9bn $2,487.1bn Common Share

Source: Deloitte analysis based on data from S&P Capital IQ

Financial performance of the S&P Global 1200 Energy Index constituents

Q4 2014 Q2 2015 Total revenues

$1,143.2bn $1,178.4bn Cash spent Capital

$115.0bn $99.7bn $53.8bn $27.2bn

2014 levels for the S&P Global 1200 Industrial

Source: Deloitte analysis based on data from Thomson One Banker

Financial performance of the S&P Global 1200 Industrials Index constituents

Q4 2014 Q2 2015 Total revenues

Cash spent Capital

$79.6bn $80.4bn $86.7bn $99.9bn

Q4 2014 Q2 2015 Total revenues

$160.7bn $152.7bn $154.7bn $156.7bn

levels since the financial crisis. Over the

Q4 2014 Q2 2015 Total revenues

$654.2bn $49.8bn $66.8bn $67.4bn

2015年第四季德勤全球并购指数 - 2016年差异中见机遇-en-160121 PDF

2015年第四季德勤全球并购指数 - 2016年差异中见机遇-en-160121 PDF

2015年第四季德勤全球并购指数 - 2016年差异中见机遇-en-160121 PDF